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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-28-21	Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 227		102-126	Loss	-109	15 h 26 m	Show
Below the radar screen, the Hawks have been playing very good defense since Nate McMillan took over as coach. Atlanta has held its last eight opponents to an average of 102.3 points per game. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.7 points. Denver has an above average defense. The Nuggets have held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 109 points. Both teams were active at the trade so there are rotation adjustments. The Nuggets got bigger with their recent acquisitions so they might have gotten slower.
03-28-21	Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158		65-83	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret how Gonzaga is going to play. The Bulldogs are going to push pace - they have the second-shortest average length time of possession - and attack from everywhere on the court. They can do this with such awesome talent in Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi and Jalen Suggs. This is why Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 92.9 points a game. The Bulldogs also are No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage at 55.3 percent. No matter how high the oddsmaker sets the total, Gonzaga seems to go above it. The Over has cashed an amazing 71 percent of the time in Gonzaga's last 55 games. I envision another Over the total in this matchup. Creighton averages 78.4 points a game, which ranks 42nd in the nation. The Bluejays are 29th in field goal percentage and 52nd in 3-point accuracy. Going by KenPom.com's advanced metrics, Creighton ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. So it's obvious the Bluejays can hold up their scoring end. The key question is what kind of pace will the Bluejays employ? Opponents, of course, have tried to slow down tempo against Gonzaga. That doesn't work. You have to go back to Dec. 2 to find the last time Gonzaga didn't win by double-digits and that was against West Virginia. It's the only instance of the unbeaten Bulldogs not winning by at least 10 points all season. The Bluejays play their best when they push tempo. Creighton ranks 23rd in the adjusted KenPom.com offensive efficiency ratings. My conclusion then is the oddsmaker has set this total too low.
03-27-21	Syracuse v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	46-62	Win	100	39 h 1 m	Show
Slow tempo. Great defense. High total. These three key ingredients all are here pointing to Under the total. Houston is an extremely slow-paced, methodical team ranking among the bottom-25 in tempo. Syracuse has slowed down its tempo during the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The Orange's fabled 2-3 zone is going to cause shooting problems for Houston. The Cougars are not familiar with this defensive style. They are a below average shooting team ranking 194th in field goal percentage. Guard DeJon Jarreau is dealing with a hip pointer. He's Houston's assist leader and No. 3 scorer. The Cougars rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. They also are No. 2 in scoring defense giving up just 57.6 points and rank fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Sparked by Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse has made 50 percent of its 3-point shots in the NCAA Tournament going 29-for-58. That's unsustainable especially against Houston's elite defense. During the regular season, Syracuse made just 33 percent of its 3-point shots, ranking 213th.
03-27-21	Celtics v. Thunder +9.5		111-94	Loss	-110	12 h 56 m	Show
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics.
03-27-21	Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas		70-72	Win	100	37 h 60 m	Show
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now.
03-26-21	Cavs v. Lakers -3.5		86-100	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton.
03-26-21	Nuggets -125 v. Pelicans		113-108	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
New Orleans is much better at home. Denver, however, has one of the top road marks in the NBA at 14-9. The Nuggets certainly aren't going to lack motivation and focus either for this matchup. The Pelicans upset the Nuggets, 113-108, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Sunday. Denver rebounded from that disappointment to knock off the Magic, 110-99, in Orlando three days ago, but then were buried on the road by the Raptors, 135-111, this past Wednesday. This is what Denver coach Michael Malone said about that defeat to the Raptors: "The most frustrating aspect for me was the complete lack of effort, all around from top to bottom; that was an embarrassing performance." Almost always a team comes out hard after getting ripped by their coach for lack of trying. Denver also has rapid revenge motivation losing to the Pelicans at home five days ago. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games and rate at least one level higher than the Pelicans.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-24-21	Mavs v. Wolves +8.5		128-108	Loss	-115	8 h 55 m	Show
The Mavericks are talented. They also are young and could be facing an unexpected tough battler here. Riding high after a 40-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Sunday, the Mavericks have had three days to enjoy themselves. Their past five games have been against the Nuggets, two versus the Clippers and two against the Trail Blazers. Now they get to step way down in class drawing the hapless Timberwolves. Dallas does not have a good track record in these instances going 5-16 ATS (24 percent) the past 21 times facing below .500 opponents. Minnesota has covered four of its last seven games. Anthony Edwards now becomes the top rookie of the year candidate with LeMelo Ball likely out for the year. Edwards is playing well. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man on the floor. This is the second meeting between the two teams. Dallas defeated Minnesota, 127-122, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites on Feb. 8. The Timberwolves lost that one by five points despite not having Towns, while the Mavericks had their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
03-24-21	Hornets v. Rockets +3.5	Top	122-97	Loss	-105	15 h 18 m	Show
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite.
03-23-21	Nets v. Blazers -121		116-112	Loss	-121	17 h 55 m	Show
The Nets may be the Eastern power oddsmakers envision when James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are all in the lineup together and in sync. Right now, though, the Nets just have Harden. Brooklyn is thin in the backcourt with Irving out for this game. Portland's strength is its backcourt of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and swingman Gary Trent. Brooklyn could be in serious trouble for this matchup if Harden can't go. He was dealing with neck soreness following Brooklyn's last game, a 113-106 home win against the Wizards from two days ago. The Nets lost, 121-113, to the hapless Magic in their previous game played five days ago in Orlando. Portland had turned around its season winning seven of nine games before getting embarrassed at home by the Mavericks, 132-92, this past Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' worst loss of the season. I see Portland bouncing back at home against a Nets squad that is far from full strength.
03-23-21	Suns v. Heat UNDER 215.5		110-100	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
This spot is fraught with danger for Phoenix. The Suns open a four-game road swing after a highly-satisfying burial of the Lakers two days ago, drawing a semi-desperate Heat squad looking to halt a three-game losing skid. But rather than get involved picking a side, I'm opting to go with the total in this matchup because I believe Under is the best way to go. Miami is a defensive-minded team built to win in that fashion, not by shootouts. Only three teams in the NBA allow fewer points per game than the Heat. Only one has a better defensive field goal percentage. The Heat have held eight of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 100 points during regulation. The Heat have two added veteran ace defenders back in their rotation: recently acquiredTrevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala back from a hip injury. Jimmy Butler is healthy, too. Butler is noted for his offense, but he's also a strong defender. It's a plus for the Under if offensive-minded Goran Dragic remains sidelined. The Suns rank in the top three both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held three of their past four opponents to fewer than 102 points. Miami is 27th in scoring and 28th in 3-point shooting. I see this as a playoff-type game with a lot of defensive intensity and slow tempo.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-22-21	Pacers v. Bucks -9.5		113-140	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat.
03-22-21	Maryland v. Alabama OVER 138		77-96	Win	100	17 h 8 m	Show
It's human nature to remember and be influenced from what you last saw. It's the same with the oddsmaker, who also must factor in public perception. When it comes to Maryland and Alabama this is what we last witnessed: Maryland beating Connecticut, 63-54, holding the Huskies to a season-low in points and Alabama defeating Iona, 68-55. Those games flew Under the total by a combined 37 points. Judging by where this totals stands now, it's my opinion the oddsmaker and marketplace overreacted because I find this Over/Under too low. Alabama is far from a great defensive team. Maryland's defensive weakness is 3-point defense where it ranks 188th. Alabama may have experienced tournament jitters in its opener against Iona. I'm expecting the Crimson Tide to shoot and play better. Alabama led the nation in 3-pointers taken - and made. The Crimson Tide have seven players capable of hitting long-range shots headed by Jahvon Quinerly, who has the seventh-highest 3-point shooting percentage in the nation. These are not tall teams. Both like to play small ball. Alabama is one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. Maryland won't mind that style having dealt with many physical, half-court, inside-oriented Big Ten teams.
03-22-21	Colorado v. Florida State -110		53-71	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
A highly unusual college basketball season has gotten even stranger during this NCAA Tournament. One reason for this is the presence of five teams from the Pac-12 still being alive. Except for Gonzaga, I don't hold a high opinion of West Coast basketball this season. I'm expecting a correction to occur especially in this matchup of Pac-12 versus ACC. Florida State has the length, size, athleticism and defensive interior to make this a rough matchup for Colorado. The Buffaloes need to hit their perimeter shots because they are going to have problems inside. I'm not convinced they can do that. The Seminoles average six more points per game than Colorado and have a higher 3-point shooting percentage than the Buffaloes. Colorado has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog.
03-22-21	Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton		58-72	Loss	-105	14 h 16 m	Show
One of these teams is being disrespected with this betting line - and it's not Creighton. I understand Ohio University isn't held in high regard being from the Mid-American Conference. But all the Bobcats do is cover spreads. They have covered 76 percent of their past 29 games, including going 5-0 ATS the past five times as an underdog. Ohio deserves respect for not only beating Toledo and Buffalo in the MAC Tournament, but taking out Virginia, 62-58, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, the Bobcats rank 30th. They have a balanced scoring attack and showed their defensive abilities holding high-scoring Buffalo 13 points below its season average. Jacob Preston gives Ohio one of the best all-around players in the country. Creighton has endured a difficult season. The Bluejays shouldn't be trusted in this point spread range. They were extremely fortunate to get past lightly regarded Santa Barbara, 63-62, in the first round. I also don't trust Creighton's current form. The Bluejays are averaging a puny 56.6 points per game during their last three games.
03-21-21	Lakers +10 v. Suns	Top	94-111	Loss	-108	11 h 34 m	Show
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
03-21-21	76ers v. Knicks UNDER 215.5		101-100	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
The 76ers hosted the Knicks five days ago minus Joel Embiid and his third-ranked 29.9 point scoring average. The 76ers managed to come away with a 99-96 victory for a total of 195 points. Seth Curry and Ben Simmons did play in that game. Curry scored 20 points while Simmons produced 16 points and seven assists. Together they combined to shoot 15-of-29 from the floor. Embiid remains out, but now Curry and Simmons are questionable with injuries. Yet the oddsmaker still has set what I regard as too high of a total. Perhaps he was influenced by the 76ers burying the Kings, 129-105, at home on Saturday despite Philadelphia missing Curry and Simmons. The Kings are ranked 29th defensively giving up 119.6 points. They are coached by Luke Walton. The Knicks are ranked No. 1 in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are coached by Tom Thibodeau, a defensive genius, Before they produced 129 points versus the Kings, the 76ers had been held to 93 points in regulation by the Bucks and 99 by the Knicks in their previous two games. The Knicks are a bottom-three scoring team. They have a cluster injury problem at point guard. Frank Ntilikina, an Under bettor's dream, has been drawing time. The 76ers are well above average defensively ranking seventh in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
03-21-21	Texas Tech v. Arkansas +2		66-68	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
There's no grey area with this matchup. Either you believe in Arkansas' fast and flashy way, or Texas Tech's old-school, defensive approach. I'm going the Arkansas way. I like the current form the Razorbacks are in. They have three big scorers and rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game. Arkansas has covered nine of its last 11 games and is 18-9-1 (67 percent) ATS on the season. Texas Tech has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times it has met opponents with a winning record.
03-21-21	Syracuse v. West Virginia UNDER 147.5		75-72	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
I don't believe the oddsmaker has paid enough respect to these two team's defensive abilities with this high of a total. Syracuse has its famed 2-3 zone, while West Virginia has its deadly press. Derek Culver may be a load inside, but I'm not sold on West Virginia's outside shooting, nor Syracuse handling the Mountaineers' constant pressure and maniac intensity. West Virginia certainly is not going to ignore sizzling Buddy Boeheim. The better the competition, the more these defenses seem to step up. The Under is 7-1 the past eight times Syracuse has met an above .500 opponent. That's West Virginia's Under mark, too, the past eight times it has faced a winning opponent.
03-21-21	Magic +8.5 v. Celtics		96-112	Loss	-105	7 h 25 m	Show
Aaron Gordon is one of those underrated players who isn't worth anything on the betting line. Maybe he should be. Orlando is 4-1 ATS since Gordon returned from injury. Gordon scored 38 points in helping lead the Magic to a 121-113 win against the Nets this past Friday at home halting Brooklyn's six-game win streak and ending the Magic's nine-game losing streak. So the Magic should enter this matchup with boosted confidence not to mention strong revenge motivation for a 124-97 mid-January road loss to the Celtics during their previous get together. The other part of this handicap is fading Boston. The Celtics are not a team to be backing right now losers of four of their past five, including their last three. Discount a 134-107 win against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Celtics are averaging 106 points during their last four games. Both Orlando and Boston give up an average of 111 points. Orlando would be 6-1 in its last seven games if given more than eight points. So, I ask who are the Celtics to be laying this many points?
03-21-21	Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7		71-58	Loss	-110	10 h 52 m	Show
Loyola's always a nice NCAA Tourney story. But the Ramblers aren't nearly in Illinois' class. Yes the point spread reflects that, but not to the full degree. Just how good is Illinois? The Illini very well could be the second-best team in the nation next to Gonzaga. The Illini are playing at this high level going 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The combination of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are too much for Loyola to keep this within single digits. Illinois has done this against major competition, too. The Illini are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus above .500 foes. Loyola hasn't been good when getting points failing to cover eight of the last 11 times in that role.
03-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Texas UNDER 140	Top	53-52	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have put too much stock in Texas' 91-86 victory against Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament because this total is too high. Prior to that game, the Longhorns hadn't surrendered more than 68 points in any of their past five games. Texas gives up 68.2 points on the season and ranks in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points per game than Abilene Christian, which permitted only 60.7 while ranking 24th in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian is in strong defensive form, too, giving up only 59.2 points per game during its last four matchups.
03-20-21	Grand Canyon +14.5 v. Iowa		74-86	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Grand Canyon has been an underdog five times this season. The Antelopes covered every one of those games. Iowa is a great team, but Grand Canyon matches up well to the Hawkeyes and should go 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are led by star senior center Luka Garza. Grand Canyon has a pair of big men - 7-footer Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6-10 Alessandro Lever - that can bother Garza on both sides of the floor. The Antelopes ranked 16th in the nation in 2-point shooting at 55.4 percent because of their inside scoring. They also were 35th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Iowa doesn't have the guard play to force many turnovers, which is where Grand Canyon has some vulnerabilities. Making the NCAA Tournament is a huge deal for the Antelopes because they never made it before having just started playing Division I basketball eight years ago. Grand Canyon will be pumped up while all the pressure will be on Iowa. You have to wonder, too, if the Big Ten could be overrated following Ohio State and Purdue losing as big favorites during Friday's first-round tournament action.
03-20-21	Hawks v. Lakers UNDER 223.5		99-94	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
We'll find out just how good the Hawks are with this matinee matchup. Atlanta is 7-0 since replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan. The best way to get involved with this game, though, is Under the total. It's easy to think offense with LeBron James and the Lakers. But LA actually ranks second in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game at 106.3. That number shrinks even more to 105.7 if you go by just the last four games. The Hawks have really improved defensively and professionally under the veteran tutelage of McMillan. Atlanta has allowed fewer than 113 points in seven of its last eight games. The Hawks have permitted an average of only 97 points during their past four games. The teams last met on Feb. 1 and there were just 206 points scored in 107-99 Lakers' victory. This also is a rare home day game for the Lakers so the early start time is another checkmark to the Under.
03-20-21	Dayton v. Memphis UNDER 138		60-71	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
Memphis has been a monster Under team going below the total 69 percent of the time during its last 63 games. The Tigers ranked 21st in the country in scoring defense holding their foes to 62.9 points a game. Dayton ranks 226th in scoring, averaging fewer than 70 points per game. The Flyers give up 67.2 points, which ranks 91st in scoring defense. There are some other elements that set up this Under. The game is being played at a neutral site - the UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas. It's also an early start time. Dayton has not played in 15 days. Memphis last played a week ago losing, 76-74, in heart-breaking fashion to Houston in the AAC Tournament Conference. So the Tigers may not have their full intensity since they expected to reach the NCAA Tournament not the NIT, while the Flyers could be dealing with plenty of rust.
03-19-21	Morehead State +13 v. West Virginia		67-84	Loss	-109	19 h 12 m	Show
Look out for Morehead State. The Eagles are a legitimate sleeper on a huge 19-1 roll with their latest victory being an upset of top-seeded Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference. I like the momentum and confidence the Eagles bring into the tournament. They rank in the top 35 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Eagles also have one of the top freshmen big men in the country in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome. He destroyed Belmont in the OVC title game with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Broome can hold his own against West Virginia's rugged inside force Derek Culver. West Virginia is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Maybe the Mountaineers can just turn the switch, but I certainly don't see them winning by double-digits.
03-19-21	Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7		60-69	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
Liberty plays extremely slow, but is very efficient offensively. The Flames could frustrate Oklahoma State. But I don't believe that will happen. The Cowboys are hot, played a far more difficult schedule and feature superstar guard Cade Cunningham. That combination should enable them to cover this mid-range number. Oklahoma State emerged as a Big 12 Conference power knocking off No. 2 Baylor in the conference semifinals before falling to Texas, 91-86, in the conference tourney title game. That loss may actually help the Cowboys because they won't be taking Liberty lightly after defeating six ranked teams this month. Oklahoma State has covered seven of the eight times it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Flames earned their way to the NCAA Tournament by capturing the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. I regard the Atlantic Sun as a bottom-five conference. One of Liberty's non-league victories came against Lancaster Bible, 90-49. So that padded the Flames' season statistics. When Liberty went up against NCAA Tournament teams Missouri and Purdue earlier in the season they lost by 9 and 13 points.
03-19-21	Oral Roberts +16 v. Ohio State		75-72	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Ohio State does not have a good recent history in the NCAA Tourney. The Buckeyes enter this first round matchup banged-up and off a grueling four-day Big Ten Tournament that didn't conclude until Sunday. The Buckeyes had two overtime games, too, in the Big Ten Tourney. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, has had ample rest and preparation time having won the Summit League Tournament back on March 9. The Golden Eagles average nearly four more points than Ohio State and lead the nation in free throw percentage at 82.4 percent in made 3-pointers. They have one of the best guards in the nation, Max Abmas, to go with inside scoring. So this is going to be a very tough matchup for Ohio State, which may not be 100 percent physically and mentally ready.
03-19-21	Colgate v. Arkansas -8		68-85	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Colgate and Arkansas are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. But that's where the similarity ends. The Razorbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games with all of their victories during this span occurring versus SEC opponents. Arkansas has won eight games against NCAA Tournament teams, including Alabama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, North Texas, Abilene Christian and Oral Roberts. Arkansas has the best player on the court, too, in Moses Moody. Colgate has only played 15 games this season - all of which were in their Patriot League. Now the Raiders are asked to stay within single digits of maybe the best team in the SEC. I don't see it. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times it has been favored, covering against better teams than Colgate.
03-18-21	Hornets +8 v. Lakers		105-116	Loss	-106	18 h 53 m	Show
The defending world champion Lakers of LeBron James are the epitome of the big-market, public team. The Hornets are the complete opposite. They are small-market and almost always flying below the radar screen. This often leads to value in backing the Hornets and fading the Lakers - in the right circumstances. This is such a spot. Charlotte is coming off a 129-104 blowout loss to the Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night. The good news for the Hornets from that stinging defeat was none of their players reached the 28-minute playing mark. The Hornets are healthy, which they haven't been, and shouldn't be weary for this matchup especially given their solid team depth. They actually have one of the league's deepest backcourts with potential rookie-of-the-year LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham and Malik Monk. Previous to losing to Denver, the Hornets were 5-1 in their last six games. They are an amazing 11-1 ATS following a non point spread cover. The Lakers are the ones with a bit of a fatigue element as this marks their third game in four days. LA is coming off blowout victories against the Warriors this past Monday and Timberwolves from Tuesday. The Lakers host the hot Hawks, winners of six in a row, on Saturday. So this looms as a real flat spot for LA. Often overvalued when playing at home, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times as home chalk when laying six or more points. So this isn't their best role.
03-18-21	Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 241.5		93-101	Win	100	17 h 24 m	Show
The Pelicans had the biggest choke job of the season when these teams met two days ago in Portland. New Orleans blew a 17-point lead during the final six minutes to lose, 125-124. There were 249 points scored in that game. So why try to make an Under work here besides the obvious of going below an extremely high total? Besides these teams knowing each other's tendencies from having just met and figuring the Pelicans are going to play with super intensity after their massive blown opportunity, a look at Tuesday's box score reveals just what it took to score this many points: New Orleans: Shot 52 percent from the floor, made 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range for 48 percent and hit 16 of 20 free throws for 80 percent. The Pelicans rank 28th in free throw percentage at 73.2 percent and are 19th in 3-point shooting accuracy at 35.8 percent. Prior to Tuesday's game, Portland had given up an average of 113.8 points in its last eight games. That's below average, but not bottom-seven. A total this high is normally reserved for bottom-five type defenses. Portland: The Trail Blazers also shot 52 percent from the field in Tuesday's game and didn't miss a free throw going 31-for-31! The Trail Blazers rank 26th in field goal percentage at 44.8 percent. If you discount a 135-108 loss to the Timberwolves, the Trail Blazers had surrendered an average of just 100 points in their three previous games.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-17-21	Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5		109-105	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
Joel Embiid was having an MVP-caliber season until he suffered a knee injury two games ago. He's out replaced by a combination of Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard. Embiid averages 29.9 points. Bradley and Howard average a combined 11 points. Rarely do they go to the free throw line either and whey they do there's about a 40 percent chance they will miss. So without Embiid, I see this total as being too high. The 76ers just beat the physical Knicks, 99-96, at home Tuesday night. This marks Philadelphia's third game in four days and second in two nights. A fast-paced, up-tempo game from the 76ers should not be expected especially when the plodding and way over-the-hill Howard is on the floor. The Bucks' defense is down from the past couple of seasons, but they still rank seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Philadelphia ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in scoring defense giving up 110.1 points per game. The Bucks could experience some culture shock having just played the Wizards twice. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
03-16-21	Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5	Top	119-107	Loss	-110	9 h 57 m	Show
Nate McMillan isn't an elite coach. But he's a solid pro and he has the Hawks playing and looking far more respectable than they did under Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta has surrendered an average of just 104.5 points in its last four games. The Hawks have moved into the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rank No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. Houston is last in 3-point shooting percentage. So don't expect the Rockets to hit many 3-pointers. Houston is decimated with injuries, averaging only 99.8 points a game during their last six games. The Cavaliers are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they average 103.3 points. Houston may get Danuel House Jr. back, but Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon are not expected to play leaving just Victor Oladipo as the Rockets' lone respectable scoring threat. Note, too, that 80 percent of the Rockets' home games this season have gone Under at 12-3-1.
03-15-21	Clippers -118 v. Mavs	Top	109-99	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
The Clippers may have got caught peeking ahead to this matchup as they lost, 135-115, to the Pelicans on the road Sunday. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis may come up big here for Dallas, but I want the Clippers going for me in their Revenge Game of the Year. Actually make that Revenge Game of the Century. Recall, if you must, the Clippers hosting the Mavericks two days after Christmas. Dallas absolutely humiliated LA, 124-73. The Mavericks led 77-27 at halftime! It was the biggest halftime deficit ever and the worst defeat in Clippers franchise history - which says a lot. The Clippers haven't been playing well, but they did bury the Warriors, 130-104, this past Thursday before falling to New Orleans. The Warriors just upset the Jazz yesterday. The Clippers shouldn't have a fatigue issue as this is just their third game since March 4. They have covered the past six times when playing without rest. Dallas enters this matchup fat and happy having gone 7-2 in its last nine games and off a highly-satisfying, 116-103, road victory against the Nuggets this past Saturday. Dallas is 6-15 ATS the last 21 times hosting an opponent with a winning road record. The Clippers also have covered in five of their last six visits to Dallas.
03-14-21	Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 223.5	Top	134-107	Loss	-110	13 h 30 m	Show
Down John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker, the Rockets could have the worst offense in the NBA. Houston's offense should pick up as early as Tuesday when Wall and Wood could return. But right now it's terrible. The Rockets are averaging 99.8 points in their last eight games. Boston's defense has been disappointing this season. The Celtics, though, have played average-to-well above average offenses during each of their past dozen games. They also have back defensive whiz Marcus Smart. Now the Celtics finally are drawing an offensively-challenged opponent. Houston Coach Stephen Silas has emphasized defense since becoming the Rockets coach. Houston is on a 15-game losing streak, but the short-handed Rockets showed plenty of moxie in their last game on the road against the powerful Jazz rallying from 26 points down to cut Utah's lead to four points in the fourth quarterback before losing. The Celtics are a below average scoring team when on the road. Boston is averaging only 103.7 points in its past seven away games.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-13-21	Ohio v. Buffalo -2		84-69	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
03-13-21	Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145	Top	86-91	Loss	-110	14 h 45 m	Show
The last meeting between Oklahoma State-Texas occurred on Feb. 6. The game went into double overtime - and still went Under - with Oklahoma State winning, 75-67, for a combined 142 points. Oklahoma State has picked a great time to peak and play its best defense. The Cowboys reached this Big 12 Conference Tournament championship game by holding West Virginia to 69 points, eight points below the Mountaineers' season average, and limiting Baylor to 74 points. That was 11 points under the Bears' season average. Texas has been playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have limited their past six foes to an average of 66 points in regulation. Not one of their last six opponents scored more than 68 points in regulation against them. The Longhorns also get the benefit of extra rest since their semifinal matchup against Kansas was cancelled when the Jayhawks had a COVID-19 problem.
03-13-21	Utah State v. San Diego State -113		57-68	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Revenge can be overrated. But not here. San Diego State has been hoping for this championship matchup of the Mountain West Conference Tournament ever since Utah State swept the Aztecs back in mid-January. Utah State won those games, 57-45 and 64-59. Both were played in snowy Logan, Utah. Now the teams are at neutral site Las Vegas. San Diego State hasn't lost since going 0-2 to Utah State winning 13 in a row. The Aztecs have the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 60.1 points. They also rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. San Diego State's offense has improved and the Aztecs have a deeper bench, which is magnified during conference tournament time as this is each team's third game in three days. The Aztecs caught a break being the earlier Friday game. Utah State had to play in the late Friday game not leaving the gym at the Thomas & Mack Center until after midnight.
03-12-21	Rockets +17 v. Jazz		99-114	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here.
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Missouri v. Arkansas -4		64-70	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-11-21	Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 222.5		101-134	Loss	-105	11 h 2 m	Show
Except for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Julius Randle, both of whom played in last Sunday's All-Star Game, the rest of the Knicks and Bucks have been idle for a week. So there should be a rust factor. Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau has turned the Knicks into the No. 1 defense in the NBA. New York ranks first in scoring defense holding foes to 104.4 points a game, first in defensive field goal percentage and also is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Under is 7-1 in New York's last eight road games. The Bucks have averaged just 104.6 points in their last three games as they adjust back to point guard Jrue Holiday, who had been out because of COVID-19.
03-11-21	Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15		51-58	Loss	-110	12 h 18 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams.
03-11-21	Morgan State v. Florida A&M OVER 138.5		77-75	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
Morgan State is all about scoring. Florida A&M had the best defense in the Md-Eastern Athletic Conference. So this matchup makes it hard for the oddsmaker to make a good total. I think he set this total too short. The Bears rank 19th in the country in scoring at 80.7 points per game. They rank No. 2 in the conference in 3-point shooting. The Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. I see the Bears doing their share to get this total to go Over. But will Florida A&M? I believe the Rattlers will. Morgan State ranks 261st in scoring defense. The Bears have permitted an average of 75.1 points in their past eight games. This is a short spread, too, so overtime is a possibility.
03-11-21	Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5		60-75	Win	100	11 h 11 m	Show
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
03-11-21	Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 141		72-71	Loss	-108	7 h 17 m	Show
Did you see how well Georgetown defended against Marquette on Wednesday? Darn impressive. The Hoyas held Marquette to 49 points. Georgetown has been playing stronger defense the past four weeks. If you discount their road game against Connecticut, the Hoyas have surrendered an average of just 63.7 points during their last seven games. Georgetown catches Villanova down leading scorer Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, the Wildcats' No. 3 scorer. Both are injured. Minus Gillespie and Moore, the Wildcats lost, 54-52, to Providence this past Saturday shooting just 33 percent from the floor. So Villanova really is going to be stressing defense. The Wildcats have held their past five opponents to only 61 points per game. Note, too, the venue being Madison Square Garden, which is known as a great Under court. An early start is another bonus for the Under.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-10-21	Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 238	Top	112-127	Loss	-110	13 h 46 m	Show
I understand the Wizards play no defense, but have the capability with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to light up the scoreboard thus proving tough to make an Under work. But there are enough factors here to feel confident that this total has been set too high. Beal was the only player from either team to play in last Sunday's All-Star game. All the other players haven't played in six days. That's just too long to go between games without there being a rust factor. Washington hosted Memphis eight days ago. The Grizzlies shot 49 percent from the floor and won, 125-111. The Wizards made 51 percent of their field goals. Beal and Westbrook both played. Yet the combined score came out to 236. This total opened higher. The Grizzlies have given up 112 points or fewer in five of their last six games despite playing the Mavericks, Clippers twice, Bucks and Wizards during this span. Memphis ranks eighth in the NBA defensively allowing 110.8 points. The Wizards have scored 116 points or fewer in regulation in five of their last seven games. They have given up fewer than 118 points in four of their last five games. The Under has cashed in seven of Washington's past nine road contests.
03-10-21	Loyola Maryland v. Army OVER 133.5		67-63	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
Army is coming off an 89-point performance against American in its last game. But the strongest part of my handicap to the Over is what Loyola Maryland can do offensively. Loyola Maryland just scored 76 points against Navy, which gives up 66.5 points per game. Loyola Maryland has reached at least 70 points in all but one of its last 14 games. The Greyhounds also have had star guard Cam Spencer back for the last three games after he had been out. Spencer led Loyola Maryland in scoring at 24 points per game and assists last season. He's rounding into shape and gives the Greyhounds their top passer and a fourth double-digit scorer.
03-10-21	Northern Arizona v. Portland State OVER 130.5		77-66	Win	100	12 h 39 m	Show
It's rare to see a total this low on a game involving Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have the top scorer in the Big Sky Conference, Cameron Shelton. He averages 20.2 points a game. The Lumberjacks also are one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 75.4 points while ranking 345th in defensive field goal percentage and 339th in 3-point defense. They are giving up an average of 85.7 points during their past four games. Both teams are stepping way down in class for this first-round Big Sky Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Boise, Idaho. Northern Arizona just played its last four games against the conference's two best teams, Southern Utah and Weber State. The Lumberjacks averaged 71 points in their last two games. Portland State just played two games against Southern Utah, the No. 1 team in the Big Sky. So the Vikings' current low scoring numbers are skewed. This is the first meeting of the season between Northern Arizona and Portland State. I see that as a plus for the Over since the team's lack familiarity with each other. Northern Arizona could have problems, for instance, handling Portland State's full-court defensive pressure. Vikings guard James Scott led the Big Sky in steals. He's also averaging 18 points in his last three games and is a good ball distributor. Note, too, that Portland State ranks 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding. So they should be able to get a number of putbacks against a defense as soft as Northern Arizona's.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-09-21	Oakland v. Cleveland State OVER 139.5		69-80	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
This is a low total for a game involving Oakland. Cleveland State's defense isn't that good. Oakland ranks 341st defensively giving up 82 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies rank 334th in 3-point defense and 331st in defensive field goal percentage. Until holding Northern Kentucky to a surprisingly low 58 points on Monday, the Golden Grizzlies had allowed 80 or more points in seven straight games. Before yesterday's game, Oakland also had scored 78 or more points in 14 of its last 16 games. Cleveland State ranks 154th giving up more than 69 points a game. The Vikings were allowing an average of 71.4 points during their last eight games until holding Wisconsin-Milwaukee to 65 points in a six-point victory. The Vikings started cold in that game, but scored 47 points in the second half. That bodes well for a big scoring effort here. Both teams have had a chance to get used to the Indianapolis neutral site setting, which is where the Horizon League Conference Tournament is taking place.
03-09-21	McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana		68-71	Loss	-110	14 h 59 m	Show
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
03-08-21	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State OVER 140.5	Top	65-71	Loss	-110	17 h 53 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has played nine Over games in a row. I'm not expecting that streak to end in its Horizon League Conference Tournament semifinal game against Cleveland State at neutral site Indianapolis. Sparked by their explosive backcourt tandem of DeAndre Gholston and Te'Jon Lucas, who are combining to average 46 points this season, the Panthers are averaging 80.5 points in regulation during their last six games. But what makes the Panthers such a strong Over team is their lack of defense. They are surrendering an average of 82.5 points in regulation during their past six games. Cleveland State, the No. 1 seed in the tournament, averaged 69.5 points on the season while giving up 69.4. The Vikings, though, have shown some defensive slippage. They've allowed 71.4 points in regulation during their last seven games. They were fortunate to survive their first-round tournament game against 10th-seeded Purdue Fort Wayne winning, 108-104, in triple overtime. The Over is 7-2-1 in Cleveland State's last 10 games. While the Vikings' defense is showing vulnerability, their offense should fare well against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers rank 297th in scoring defense and 332nd in 3-point defense.
03-07-21	UMKC v. North Dakota State OVER 119		65-69	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
I get that these are two slow-paced teams meeting in a neutral site setting at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, S.D. for this first round Summit League Tournament game. But this total is set too low, way too low especially based on current form. UMKC averages 70.3 points a game. The Roos rank eighth in the nation in field goal percentage at 50 percent and 3are 7th in 3-point percentage making 37.3 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They have five players averaging double-figures in scoring. North Dakota State is surrendering 79.6 points its last three games. The Bison are averaging 77 points during their past five games. The Roos are permitting an average of 75 points in their last three games.
03-07-21	Florida v. Tennessee -4.5		54-65	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida.
03-06-21	CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego		78-85	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
03-06-21	Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State		54-79	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-06-21	Texas A&M v. Arkansas OVER 136.5		80-87	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
I understand that Texas A&M is just getting back to playing basketball again after being ravaged by COVID-19 issues. But a total this low on an Arkansas game just begs for the Over to cover. It's the lowest total on a Razorbacks game all season. Only six teams average more points per game than Arkansas, which puts up an average of 83.2. The Razorbacks have produced at least 81 points in five of their last six. They are in peak form, too, winning 10 straight SEC games, including beating South Carolina, 101-73, on the road this past Tuesday in their last game. The key is if the Aggies can contribute their share of points. Texas A&M hadn't played since Jan. 30 before losing, 63-57, to Mississippi State this past Wednesday. Obviously the Aggies had a lot of rust to get off. But they only had five turnovers in that game and now some of that rust has been rinsed away. Arkansas gives up 70.3 points per game. So the Aggies aren't facing a defensive giant.
03-06-21	American v. Army OVER 132.5		66-89	Win	100	10 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker has set too low of a total on this Patriot League Conference Tournament matchup. American is averaging 79.5 points in its last two games. Army has surrendered an average of 76.6 points in its last five games if you discount its last game. Army can shoot ranking 107th in field goal percentage. The Black Knights put up 69 points on Florida earlier this season. American has yielded 68 or more points in eight of its nine games.
03-05-21	Tarleton St v. UT-Rio Grande Valley OVER 132		65-47	Loss	-108	15 h 21 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker was thrown off by having to set a total on Tarleton State, which has played a lot of non-Division I schools. But this Over/Under has opened too low. I understand it's tough to get a full read on Tarleton State. But Rio Grande Valley isn't a strong defensive team to justify a total set this low. The Vaqueros have given up an average of 73.3 points in their last three games. Rio Grande Valley has averaged 82.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a 69-51 loss to New Mexico State. The Vaqueros have one of the top all-around guards in Javon Levi.
03-05-21	Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7		71-69	Loss	-105	15 h 4 m	Show
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-05-21	Boston College v. Miami-FL UNDER 148		76-80	Loss	-107	13 h 34 m	Show
I can understand where the oddsmaker is coming from when he made this total. Boston College beat Miami, 84-62, at home on Jan. 12. So 146 points were scored in that game. The Eagles, though, went crazy in that matchup sinking 18 of 35 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent 3-point shooting. Boston College's season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.7. Since that game, the Eagles are averaging 66.2 points in their last five games if you discount their matchup against Notre Dame two games ago. The Eagles rank 263rd in field goal shooting. Miami is averaging 64.2 points in its last five games. The Hurricanes are a well below average offensive team. They rank 307th out of 340 Division I teams in scoring, 284th in field goal percentage and 329th in 3-point percentage.
03-04-21	Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State		59-72	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
03-04-21	Thunder +7 v. Spurs	Top	107-102	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk.
03-04-21	San Diego v. San Francisco UNDER 143.5		51-67	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
A combination of frequent COVID-19 pauses that caused them to miss 14 games plus key players quitting have taken a large toll on the Toreos this season. San Diego enters the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas 1-4 in its last five games. San Diego ranks 267th in scoring at 67.4 points a game, 263rd in shooting percentage and 268th in 3-point shooting. So the Toreos should do their part to make this Under work. So should San Francisco. The Dons have lost six in a row averaging 66.1 points during this span. San Francisco has made only 21.2 percent of its 3-point shots during this time frame. The teams met back on New Year's Eve in San Francisco and the Dons won, 70-62, for a total of 132 points.
03-04-21	Illinois State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 142	Top	60-65	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
The Missouri Valley Conference always has been a defensive-minded conference populated by good coaches. So I think Under first when looking at Missouri Valley Conference matchups especially during tournament time when the games are held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This venue is notorious for being tough to score in as a neutral site with the Under cashing better than 65 percent on opening numbers during the last 10 years. The season is finished for the loser of this game. So the intensity level should be at full throttle. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are well acquainted having just played two games against each other to close out its regular seasons. Northern Iowa won 70-56 for a total of 126 points two games ago. The Panthers then beat Illinois State again, 94-87, in overtime. Note, though, the score was 70-70 during regulation. Illinois State hasn't broken 67 points in seven of its last 11 games. Northern Iowa hasn't gone above 70 points in regulation during eight of its last nine games.
03-04-21	Stetson v. Bellarmine UNDER 144		73-70	Win	100	15 h 39 m	Show
Bellarmine heads into the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament having played just once since Feb. 13. The Knights have been held to 64 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Stetson has been involved in some high scoring games. But Bellarmine gives up fewer than 65 points a game and plays at a slow tempo. The teams met twice during the regular season. Bellarmine won both meetings with the combined scores finishing at 129 and 141 points, respectively.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-03-21	Boston College v. Florida State UNDER 155.5		64-93	Loss	-110	13 h 41 m	Show
I think the oddsmaker was too influenced by Boston College's last game - a 94-90 home win against Notre Dame - when he set this total. The Eagles had averaged just 65.6 points during their previous three games. Florida State is a high-scoring team, but the Seminoles also can play tough defense especially at home where they've held three of their last four opponents to 61 or fewer points. This game figures to be a Florida State blowout. So it gives the Seminoles a chance to reduce the minutes of their starters providing extra time for their backup players.
03-03-21	San Diego State v. UNLV OVER 130.5		71-62	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. But what the Aztecs also have going is they are more up-tempo than perceived and are very effective burying 3-point shots in transition. San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting percentage and ranks 25th in the nation hitting 38 percent from beyond the arc. This has been instrumental in the Aztecs scoring at least 75 points in eight of their last 10 games. I see them doing that again here as UNLV ranks 317th in 3-point defense. The key to making this Over work, though, is UNLV contributing its share of points. The Rebels looked good during the second half against Fresno State in their last game this past Friday scoring 36 points. I think that carries over.
03-03-21	Thunder +8 v. Mavs		78-87	Loss	-105	18 h 20 m	Show
I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him. Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup. Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite.
03-03-21	Hawks v. Magic +4		115-112	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him. But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did. Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best. Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs. Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days. The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks.
03-03-21	Bulls +6 v. Pelicans		128-124	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home. Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite. The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans. The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense.
03-03-21	Providence v. St. John's -125		67-81	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
This is buy-low time on St. John's. The Red Storm lead the Big East in scoring and have a really good player in Julian Champagnie. But two losses in a row have caused the oddsmaker to get real down on the Red Storm. St. John's had their worst shooting game of the season two games ago in an 88-83 home loss to DePaul. The Red Storm then had to play revenge-minded Villanova on the road and were blown out, 81-58. No shame in losing to the Wildcats. I see St. John's bouncing back at home where it has covered six of the past seven times. The Red Storm beat Providence, 92-81, on the road on Feb. 6. That was the most points the Friars have allowed all season.
03-02-21	Nuggets v. Bucks UNDER 235		128-97	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
The Bucks are a very good team. But so far they haven't reached the elite level they were during the past two regular seasons. That's because their defense hasn't reached the No. 2 rating that their offense holds. There are signs, though, that Milwaukee's defense is coming around. The Bucks have held their last five opponents to an average of 107.4 points. Milwaukee just held the Clippers, the No. 6 scoring team in the league, 15 points under their season average in a 105-100 home win two days ago. Denver ranks 11th in the NBA defensively. The Nuggets have held their past four opponents to an average of 106.5 points. This is the Nuggets' third game in four days and second in two days. Denver is short four rotation players because of injuries and sickness. So I don't anticipate a fast tempo from the Nuggets.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-01-21	Hornets v. Blazers -6.5	Top	111-123	Win	100	20 h 32 m	Show
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
03-01-21	Mavs v. Magic +7		130-124	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I rank Luka Doncic among the five best players in the NBA. The guy is like a modern day version of Oscar Robertson, who yes I did see back in the day. A triple-double machine. But while Doncic is elite, the Mavericks aren't. Dallas is a .500 team with the record to prove that - 16-16. So I don't see the Mavericks getting away with laying this many road points in a flat spot for them. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive 115-98 Saturday road victory against the Nets, which snapped Brooklyn's eight-game win streak. Dallas' last three games have been against the Celtics, 76ers and Nets. This is the conclusion of its three-game road trip. So I don't see the Mavericks producing another "A" game given the circumstances and motivational letdown facing a much weaker opponent than they've recently met. Historically, Dallas hasn't been good in this role going 5-16 ATS the last 21 times when facing a below .500 opponent. Let's examine the Magic's past six games. They beat improved Knicks and Warriors teams along with the Pistons. But in their last three games, they lost a rematch to the Pistons and were buried by the Nets and Jazz. No shame in losing to Brooklyn and Utah. Orlando was outclassed in those matchups. The Magic won't be so outclassed here and they are in stop-the-pain mode. Orlando actually gives up fewer points per game than Dallas. It's lack of scoring that really hurts the Magic. The combination of having Evan Fournier back - he missed the first meeting between the two teams that Dallas won, 112-98, on Jan. 9 - and the Mavericks' 22nd-ranked defense should help Orlando put up a respectable scoring number to keep this game close.
03-01-21	Hampton +8.5 v. Radford		52-67	Loss	-105	13 h 0 m	Show
Hampton's season is on the line with this being a quarterfinal game in the Big South Conference Tournament. I think the Pirates will keep this close especially since Radford hasn't been playing well. Radford is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone victory during this time frame coming against Mt. Aloysius, a non-Division I opponent. Radford has averaged only 54.2 points during their past four losses. Hampton has a decent backcourt and the best low-post player on the court, Dajour Dickens. The 7-footer ranks second in the nation in blocked shots averaging 3.48 per game.
02-28-21	Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 223.5		133-84	Win	100	6 h 3 m	Show
Discounting their 119 points versus the Wizards, the Rockets are averaging 101 points in their last eight games. That would rank last in the league by a full three points if that is what their scoring average was for the entire season. Houston ranks 26th in shooting percentage and last in 3-point shooting percentage. Not only will Houston be without its leading scorer, injured Christian Wood, but its third-leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, also won't play today due to a quad injury. The Rockets have to rely on their defense to halt their 10-game losing streak. They are a slightly above average defensive team. I'm expecting defensive intensity from both teams. The Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers this past Thursday. They then proceeded to get blown out by the Clippers, 119-99, two days ago in the rematch. LA shot 55 percent from the floor. This is what Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins was quoted as saying about that: "Our defense was average. It wasn't at the level (it needed to be), so the learning lesson is you've got to raise your level and your defense has got to be consistent, night in and night out, especially when you beat a team like the way we did."
02-28-21	Quinnipiac +3 v. Marist		67-76	Loss	-109	13 h 57 m	Show
I believe the wrong team is favored. Marist is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Red Foxes have played only two games this month. They average just 62.7 points a game. That puny average shrinks even more to 52.5 counting just their last four games. Quinnipiac has won and covered three in a row. The Bobcats have one of the stronger defenses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. They rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, while averaging nearly eight points more per game than Marist. The underdog has covered five of the last six in this series. That's easy to see why when the oddsmaker makes a wrong favorite like this.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Houston Baptist v. McNeese State OVER 157		58-85	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Only eight teams in the country produce more points per game than McNeese State, which averages 82.8. The Cowboys are going up against a terrible Houston Baptist defense that ranks 340th allowing 81.5 points. Houston Baptist turns the ball over nearly 18 times per game. So the Cowboys should get a number of easy baskets while also being able to dominate inside with KeyShawn Feazell. This also is the Cowboys' first home game since Jan. 20. So they certainly should be pumped - which means offense not defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of McNeese State's last 14 home contests. Houston Baptist should help out, too, with the Over. The Huskies have scored 80 points in two of their past three games. McNeese State is well below average defensively ranking 242nd giving up nearly 73 points per game.
02-27-21	Pacers -116 v. Knicks		107-110	Loss	-116	7 h 20 m	Show
The Pacers and Knicks are each one game below .500. I love what Tom Thibodeau has done with the Knicks bringing back defense and respect. But I also like Indiana's first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren. The Pacers have the better roster. They've struggled lately, though, because of a difficult schedule. Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games. However, seven of those defeats occurred to the Celtics, Bulls in overtime, Nets, Jazz, Pelicans, Bucks and 76ers. New York, by contrast, has had it much easier. In their last six games, the Knicks have played home games versus the Kings, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Rockets. Their lone road contest during this span was against the Magic. So record-wise it might not seem like a step up game for the Knicks. But in my opinion it is and the price is right to back the superior team.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-27-21	Wolves +4 v. Wizards		112-128	Loss	-103	7 h 37 m	Show
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows. Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year. It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. But all of this is on the surface. The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot. The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling. Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation. The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell.
02-27-21	Tennessee State v. Eastern Kentucky OVER 150.5	Top	84-89	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Extremely fast-paced. Tremendous scoring. Bad defense. All of that fits Eastern Kentucky and those factors are why the Colonels have gone Over in 13 of their last 16 games. I see another Over in this matchup as Tennessee State has gone Over in its last six games. Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky played each other two weeks ago and the total flew Over with the Colonels winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points. The Tigers shot just 39 percent from the floor in that game, too. The Tigers have scored 73 or more points in three of their last four games. Eastern Kentucky surrenders 73.8 points per game, which ranks 265th. So Tennessee State should be good for at least 73 points this time around, too. Eastern Kentucky is the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels have scored 81 or more points in five of their past six games. Tennessee State ranks 256th defensively.
02-27-21	Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5		82-84	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests.
02-27-21	SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5		69-63	Loss	-118	11 h 56 m	Show
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory.
02-27-21	Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5		86-76	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games.
02-27-21	Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State		91-97	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois.