The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.

The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.

Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.

This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.

The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.

So why do I like the underdog Suns?

I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.

Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games.

Now the Wildcats take on Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan. in a Big 12/Big East battle. Kansas State is 6-2. The Wildcats aren't as good as their record, though. They could be 3-5 if they would have gone 0-3 in their overtime games instead of 3-0. Two of Kansas State's overtime victories came at home against Oral Roberts and North Alabama. The Wildcats were 13 1/2-point favorites and 19 1/2-point favorites in those contests. Those are the Wildcats' last two games.

The Wildcats made it to the final 8 in the NCAA Tournament last season. But no longer have the two best players from that team, Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Their top returner is Nae'Qwan Tomlin and he's out due to suspension.

This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.

There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.  

The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.

The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.

The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.

I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game.

Iowa rolled past North Florida, 103-78, in its previous game this past Wednesday. That was a quick-paced game with North Florida throwing up 31 3-point shots. Purdue is not like that.

The Boilermakers lost, 92-88, as 5 1/2-point road favorites to Northwestern in their last game, which was three days ago. That game went into overtime. The score was 76-76 after regulation.

Purdue has a problem with turnovers, committing 15 or more in three of its last four games. The Boilermakers, though, usually are stout defensively. They rank 34th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 15th in 3-point defense.

This also is a Big Ten matchup where defense is stressed.

I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team.

The Bluejays are a top-40 scoring and defensive team. They rank 18th in 3-point field goal accuracy. The Bluejays also are a much better rebounding team than Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers have been favored in each of their previous seven games. Their schedule has been so weak they've been favored by at least 14 1/2 points in five of their seven games. Nebraska still doesn't have its full complement of rotation players either.

Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup.

Nevada is good. Loyola Marymount is an average West Coast Conference team. The Lions are 5-3, but have played very weak competition. Their victories have been against Westcliff, Jackson State, FIU, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Lions' losses have occurred to Yale, Stephen F. Austin and Oakland.

It's a step up for the Lions to play on the road against Nevada. A key is Nevada doesn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin. Loyola Marymount is 216th in that important category.

Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington.

The Wizards may be the worst defensive team in the NBA and they are coming off a terrible performance. That came against Orlando two days ago in a 139-120 road loss to the Magic. It was the Magic's eighth straight victory. Now there's a quick rematch.

The Wizards have short revenge. The Magic have their own revenge game up next when they meet the Nets on Saturday. Brooklyn defeated Orlando by 20 points Nov. 14. Washington is looking for redemption. Orlando is looking ahead.

Even given Washington's defensive shortcomings, the Magic don't figure to achieve season highs in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists like they did against the Wizards in Wednesday's lopsided victory. The Magic shot 60.7 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 27 3-pointers in that game.

Not only should the Wizards mentally be in an all-in type of mood, but physically they shouldn't hold anything back because they don't play again for five days. The Wizards have their pluses namely offense. They rank in the top-10 in points, field goal percentage and free throw shooting.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season.

Both teams, though, have been slow out of the gate. Each is 1-5.

I'm not sold on Rider laying road points here. The Broncos' only victory came at home against non-Division I Immaculata. All five of their defeats occurred on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their road matchups.

The Saints are 25-9 in their home MAAC openers.

Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog.

Louisiana Lafayette has won three in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy, sinking nearly 41 percent of their 3-point attempts.

Samford has played one of the easiest schedules in the land. The Bulldogs haven't defeated an opponent ranked higher than 285th in the KenPom rankings. Yet they are just 1-5 ATS in their lined games.

Samford's biggest weakness is defending against the 3-pointer where it ranks 267th.

I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy.

But this is a spot where the Pistons can hang in and cover the number.

The Knicks are fat and happy. They just destroyed the Hornets, 115-91, at home on Tuesday. It's New York's fourth home game in six days. Up next for the Knicks is a road game tomorrow night against the Raptors, who just upset the Suns last night.

So I question the Knicks' motivational and intensity level for this game. It's the most points the Knicks are laying all season. They have a bottom-five offense. That's not ideal when laying a large number.

It's also the most points the Pistons are receiving all season. The only other time the Pistons were a double-digit underdog they nearly upset the Bucks, losing by two points as a 12-point road 'dog.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number.

The Suns have won seven in a row, covering in their last four games. This 7-0 streak has coincided with the return of Devin Booker from a calf injury that caused him to miss five games.

The Suns will be well rested. They last played on Sunday.

Toronto, on the other hand, carries a high fatigue rating. The Raptors lost on the road by eight points to the Nets last night. Toronto had four players log at least 32 minutes in that loss. This marks the Raptors' sixth game in nine days.

The Kings are home, playing much better than the Warriors and have double revenge. So it's not too much to ask them to simply win this game.

Sacramento is 7-2 in its last nine games. Sparked by the return to health of underrated star DeAaron Fox, the Kings rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency during this span. The Kings concluded a six-game road trip this past Friday beating Minnesota, which has the top record in the Western Conference, so they've had ample rest and preparation time.

This is just the Kings' sixth home game. They are 4-1 in Sacramento.

Golden State has played just one road game since Nov. 8. The Warriors are 1-3 in their last four away contests with that victory occurring against the 2-15 Pistons.

While the Kings are 7-2 in their last nine games, the Warriors are 2-7 in their past nine games. Golden State's only victories during this time frame were versus the Spurs and Rockets. They went 0-2 against the Timberwolves, who the Kings just defeated by 13 points.

Draymond Green is eligible to return from his five-game suspension. That may work against the Warriors, though, in his first game back because Green could be rusty, or he could cause chemistry issues with his in-your-face style.

The Kings haven't forgotten the Warriors nipping them, 102-101, on Nov. 1 at Golden State when Klay Thompson hit a contested jumper with two-tenths of a second left.

What do you do when idiots meet? Take the Over. That's what I'm doing in this matchup between the two worst teams in the NBA, Wizards and Pistons.

Both teams are 2-14. The Wizards have lost nine in a row. That's nothing, though, compared to the Pistons. They've dropped 13 consecutive games.

Defense is the problem for these two teams. The Wizards rank last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring defense giving up
125.1 points a game. Detroit gives up 117.2 points per game. That number goes up to 128.3 if you just count the Pistons' last three games.

The Wizards play fast, too, ranking second in tempo. The Pistons are in the top-12 in pace, too, and will have fresh legs. This is only their second game in a week.

So expect a fast-paced game with zero defense.

It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. 

Bellarmine is improving. The Knights covered against Kansas State, losing 83-75, on the road and blew out Bowling Green on the road. They are tested and dangerous to West Virginia in this spot.

I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form.

So I'm on the Heat here against the Nets.

Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Heat's two losses during this 11-game stretch occurred to the Bulls by five points and to the Knicks by two points yesterday when Miami blew a 21-point third quarter lead. 

The Heat rank fifth in the NBA defensively holding foes to 107.6 points a game. Brooklyn ranks 21st defensively giving up an average of 116.2 points. 

The Nets have been vulnerable lately in giving up 3-point baskets, allowing an average of 16.2 in their past four games. The Heat rank sixth in the league in 3-point shooting.

I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct.

Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league at 3-11. The Suns are 9-6 and dangerous with a healthy Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix has won five in a row, including its past four road games.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 at home. The Suns won't be taking them lightly following a 123-115 win against the Warriors this past Wednesday when Phoenix nearly blew a 23-point lead. This is what Booker said after the game: "We have to do better. Simple as that. We have to take care of the ball, no turnovers, get stops. When that game's 10, 15 points in the fourth, don't give any team hope, don't give any team confidence.''

The Grizzlies are off a deflating 20-point road loss against the Rockets also this past Wednesday. Memphis ranks last in field goal percentage and in 3-point defense. The Suns rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting percentage.

No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. 

BYU, on the other hand, is riding high at 5-0. One of the Cougars' wins was against then 17th-ranked San Diego State, 74-65, at home. 

No doubt BYU will be ASU's most difficult opponent. But the Sun Devils have been a good 'dog team, have had substantial prep time and are drawing good line value.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20.

The Jazz covered all four of their games versus the Lakers last season.

Utah is getting better as its backcourt gets in sync. The Jazz are 2-2 in their last four games with their only defeats during this span coming by 3 points each to the Suns, one of which went into overtime.

Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. 

I get that. 

But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points. 

Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup. 

The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing. 

The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games. 

The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.

Miami had won seven straight games entering this past Saturday's road matchup against the Bulls. The Heat scored 22 of the first 23 points against Chicago leading them to overconfidence.

The Heat still looked like they would coast to the victory. Miami was ahead by 10 points with 8:04 left.

But the Bulls, to their credit, hung in and pulled the game out.

Now it's short revenge time for Miami. The Heat are the superior team. They won't lack motivation or overconfidence in this quick turnaround, revenge spot.

The 5-9 Bulls haven't won back-to-back games all season. I don't see them doing it here.

Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland.

The Pilots do two things: Turn the ball over frequently and miss a lot of 3-point shots. Portland averages 18 turnovers a game and ranks 267th in 3-point accuracy. 

Nevada commits the 11th-fewest turnovers in the nation. The disciplined WolfPack should cover this number being home and matching up well to Portland. 

The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.

But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.

The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.

Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.

When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six.

Portland is 3-6. Utah is worse at 3-7.

This is the Jazz's first home game in 12 days. So their focus could be off. Only once have the Jazz beaten a team by more than six points. That was against the 2-8 Grizzlies.

The Trail Blazers have road victories against the Pistons and Raptors. They lost by three to the Kings and by six to the Lakers on their current road swing, covering both games. The Trail Blazers have covered five of their last six games.

Portland has won the past three meetings against the Jazz, including twice at Utah last season.

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.

The Cavaliers are healthy and dangerous. The Warriors found that out the hard way when they lost to Cleveland, 118-110, as 4 1/2-point home favorites two days ago. Now the Cavaliers take on a much worse Sacramento team that is unlikely to have its key player, DeAaron Fox. 

Fox has missed the last five games with a right ankle sprain. He's listed as doubtful. The Kings are 2-3 in those games, which include two blowout losses to the Rockets. One of the victories was at home in overtime against the 3-6 Trail Blazers. 

If you discount the victory against Portland in which they were a 7 1/2-point favorite, the Kings are averaging 98 points in their last four games. They rank 28th in the league in field goal percentage. 

The Cavaliers have Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 29.5 points, Caris LeVert, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That's a much better core than the Kings especially if Fox remains out.  

Cleveland is averaging 117.2 points in its last four games. The Cavaliers have scored at least 116 points in each of those four contests.

I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th.

So I see value taking this many points. The Wolf Pack have the good guards needed to hit 3-pointers and get to the free throw line against the Huskies' 2-3 zone defense they constantly employ.

Nevada also has the size necessary to rebound with tall Washington. 

The Huskies hosted Northern Kentucky in their last game. The Huskies failed to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites, winning by only eight. It was not an impressive win. 

First off, this is a very early Sunday start time. That's often a plus for the Under as teams are used to playing at night. 

Then you have the Knicks as the host team. New York has gone Under in six of its eight games. It's easy to see why looking at the statistics. The Knicks are last in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. However, they have the No. 2 defense in the NBA allowing just 102.8 points. That number shrinks to 99 points if you go by their last six games. 

The Hornets just played the Wizards in back-to-back-games. Washington is the worst defensive team in the NBA. Charlotte's previous two games were versus the Mavericks, who rank 23rd defensively, and the Pacers, who rate 26th defensively. So this is quite a defensive upgrade the Hornets are facing. 

The Knicks haven't played since Wednesday. I see that extended layoff hurting their shooting more than their defense. New York figures to be rusty on offense. But the Knicks should have a solid defensive game plan given that their coach, Tom Thibodeau, is a defensive guru.

The Clippers are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this finale of their four-game road trip after losing the first three games. LA's 3-point shooting is due to improve. The Clippers are just 19-of-68 (28 percent) from 3-point range in their past two games, losses to the Knicks and Nets.

Dallas has surrendered at least 118 points in three of its past four games. Luka Doncic is going to get his points, but the Clippers have the better team with more star power. The Mavericks could be minus rookie center Dereck Lively II. He missed Dallas' last game two days ago due to illness. The result was the Raptors beat the Mavericks, 127-116, as four-point road 'dogs.

"We missed him (Lively) a lot,'' Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said after the loss to Toronto. "There was no one in the paint and that just shows how important he is to our team.''

If Lively plays, you wonder how much stamina he'll have? Either way, I don't believe the Clippers should be an underdog despite their recent shooting struggles. They have too many star players and will have motivation.

I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak.

Credit to the Lobos for that great upset win, but I fear them a lot less when they are on the road.

New Mexico is an NIT team. Saint Mary's was a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and has many returning players.

Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.

The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.

The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.

De'Aaron Fox is the most important player on Sacramento's roster. He's out with an ankle injury. Fox didn't play in the Kings' last three games. Sacramento went 0-3 in those games, including getting blown out twice by the lowly Rockets.

So the Kings certainly can't be trusted to lay this many points. The spot isn't even good for them. This is their first home game in a week having played their past three games away from home.

Portland has won and covered in its last two road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. The Trail Blazers are playing solid defense giving up an average of 101.5 points in regulation during their last four games.

UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7.

Michigan is in regroup mode after losing Hunter Dickinson, their top scorer and rebounder. He transferred to Kansas. The Wolverines also lost guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, both of whom were selected in the NBA draft. Michigan also doesn't have Jace Howard, who is out with a stress fracture to his knee. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard underwent heart surgery in September so he's in recovery.

The timing is ripe for Asheville to spring a major upset.

Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team.

North Texas was an impressive 31-7 last season. However, the Mean Green lost their three top scorers. They don't have the bench strength that Northern Iowa has.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

The Wizards are a tough team to get behind with their lack of defense. But this is a good spot for them.

The 76ers are fat and happy having four in a row, the last three coming at home. They just had a satisfying win against the Suns this past Saturday.

Up next for the 76ers is arch-rival Boston. The 76ers host the unbeaten Celtics on Wednesday. That's the game they are pointing to. It could mean fewer minutes for Joel Embiid in tonight's game.

The Wizards haven't played since Friday. After beating the Grizzlies at home, the Wizards have lost three in a row. They are frustrated. This is an important game for them. Washington ranks in the top-12 in scoring and shooting percentage.

College of Charleston went 31-4  last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. 

I like the Cougars to take care of business at home against Iona, which has a new coach and only one returning player, Osborn Shema. He was the Gaels' sixth-leading scorer last season. 

Iona's new coach is Tobin Anderson, who has had only one year of Division I coaching experience. It's going to take time for the Gaels to jell and get the right rotation with a roster nearly full of new players.

The Grizzlies are really missing suspended Ja Morant. They are the NBA's lone winless team at 0-5. Memphis is averaging 106.6 points and ranks second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies have prided themselves on defense. They just gave up 133 points to the Jazz in an embarrassing 24-point loss two days ago.

Now, with a real chance to win their first game, I see the Grizzlies really stressing defense against a short-handed, rebuilding Trail Blazers squad that has problems scoring, too. Portland ranks 29th in scoring at 103 points. The Trail Blazers are even more inaccurate from the floor than Memphis ranking last in field goal percentage.

The Trail Blazers are down their projected starting backcourt with Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, both out.

Portland has been playing solid defense the past two games holding the Raptors and Pistons to a combined average of 96 points.

The 76ers are in action for the first time since trading James Harden. They also haven't played since Sunday. So the 76ers should have energy and motivation. The talent certainly is there.

Toronto is coming off a highly satisfying destruction of the Bucks, 130-111, at home last night. This marks the Raptors' fifth game in seven days. So the scheduling dynamics clearly favor Philadelphia.

The teams already have met in 76ers coach Nick Nurse's return to Toronto. The 76ers won, 114-107, as 5-point road favorites this past Saturday. Nurse certainly knows his former team.

The Heat are not built for the early part of the season. This is when they historically struggle and it's happening again this season. If it weren't for a one-point victory against the lowly Pistons, the Heat would be 0-4.

The Nets are 3-0 ATS this season, underrated by the oddsmaker and beneath the radar because they no longer have any of their superstars. Cam Thomas, though, is an emerging star averaging 33 points.

This is Miami's first home game following three consecutive road matchups. So the spot isn't good. The Heat also are banged-up. Jimmy Butler is questionable and Bam Adebayo is dealing with a bruised hip.

The Cavaliers have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Knicks eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Knicks took advantage of Cleveland's outside shooting deficiencies and rebounding.

Aware of this, the Cavaliers addressed these concerns in the off-season by bringing in sharpshooting guard Max Strus and veteran Tristan Thompson to help Evan Mobley on the boards against Mitchell Robinson.

I'm surprised the Knicks are favored in this road game, their third away game in five days. Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable perhaps that's why. But Mitchell is expected to play.

The Knicks are not nearly in rhythm. The Cavaliers are home with motivation. Taking points is just a bonus.

It's not asking too much for the Grizzlies to beat the Wizards. Memphis, after all, is the vastly superior team. The Grizzlies were 20 games above .500 last season. Washington finished eight games below .500.

The Grizzlies are anxious for a win being 0-2. They played well in a 108-104 loss to the world champion Nuggets last night. Memphis would have beaten most teams with its performance, including the Wizards.

The oddsmaker is overrating the situation and Memphis being without suspended Ja Morant.

The Wizards haven't played since Wednesday while the Grizzlies will be in action without rest. It's so early in the season that there isn't a fatigue factor for Memphis. The Grizzlies are stepping way down in class. The Wizards played no defense in their opener, a 143-120 loss to the Pacers.

Washington gave up 32 fast-break points to Indiana. Memphis had 22 fast-break baskets against Denver. The Wizards are in transition without Bradley Beal, who has been their leading-scorer and go-to-guy since the 2017-18 season. Beal is with the Suns now. The Wizards haven't found a rhythm without Beal. They are experimenting with their rotation. I don't see the Wizards getting this turned around against the Grizzlies.

As for Morant's absence, the Grizzlies have a capable point guard in Marcus Smart. He's a better defensive guard than anybody the Wizards have.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving.

The Mavericks had a losing record last season after acquiring the disgruntled Irving from the Nets. Dallas finished last season losing 18 of its last 25 games. The Mavericks haven't been good in the favorite's role either, 4-10 ATS the past 14 times as chalk.

The Nets enter this matchup after blowing a six-point lead to the Cavaliers with 84 seconds left in their opener. Brooklyn doesn't have the superstars anymore, but it has underrated scorers. Ben Simmons finally is healthy, too.

If the Nets need extra motivation, they have it up against Irving for the first time since he left Brooklyn.

This has been a close series with the past five games all being decided by four points or less.

The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with two games. Both went Under. I see this game going Under, too, as teams make the transition from preseason to regular-season intensity.

The Trail Blazers no longer have superstar marksman Damian Lillard. Their front line has gotten better defensively with the additions of Deandre Ayton and defensive ace Robert Williams III. Their backcourt also should be improved defensively with Malcolm Brogdon coming on board.

The Clippers have a healthy Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, at least for now. They are superstars - on both ends of the court because they also are excellent defenders. Bricklayer Russell Westbrook also is in the starting lineup along with center Ivica Zubac, who has the shooting range of about two feet, and streak shooter Terance Mann.

So I find this total to be too high.

The perception here is the Rockets are a bottom-feeder and the Magic are an up-and-coming team.

Truth be told, the Rockets are nothing like last season. They have fortified themselves with a veteran lineup getting point guard Fred VanVleet and improving their defense acquiring Dillon Brooks. They also have upgraded their coaching bringing in Ime Udoka.

The Magic haven't made the playoffs the past three seasons.

I consider the Rockets to be the better team so getting points with them is a bonus.

I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The Knicks had their best season in a decade last season, but still are several rungs below the Celtics and did nothing to improve themselves in the off-season.

The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. 

After the Nuggets swept the Lakers, Denver coach Michael Malone said, "If anybody is still about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them. They've gone fishing. We're still playing.''

That flippant remark didn't sit well with the Lakers, especially LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

Now the long wait is over for the Lakers. They get a rematch with the Nuggets on opening night. The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their rings among the many pre-game festivities - and distractions for them. 

The Lakers certainly should be the more motivated and focused team. They also have a healthy James and Davis and a deeper bench than the Nuggets, who lost key reserve Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.

It's no fluke the Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the NBA championship with a 3-1 series lead. But the Heat have earned the right to be backed taking this many points.

Miami has pulled off three double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. They won Game 2 in Denver down by seven points in the final period. They are a well-coached, tough team both physically and mentally.

So I will accept this many points knowing that if key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combine for two points while shooting a combined 1-for-10 from the floor and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, the Heat are likely to lose by double-digits. That was the case in Game 4 with Denver winning, 108-95.

The Nuggets were sharp in their 108-95 road win in Game 4 this past Friday. They shot 49 percent from the floor and hit 14 of 28 3-point shots for 50 percent. That's going to be difficult to repeat. So is Aaron Gordon scoring 27 points while making 11 of 15 shots from the field and hitting three of four 3-pointers after he made just five 3-pointers during his previous eight games.

The Heat, by contrast, made 8-of-25 3-pointers for 32 percent in Game 4. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are playing great. Bam Adebayo, though, is producing strong numbers for Miami and Jimmy Butler is off his best all-around game in this series with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

It boils down to faith. I have it in Butler, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Vincent to keep things close with their season on the brink.

Let's be realistic about the Heat. They don't have the height, nor the offense, to match up to Nuggets' superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

If Miami gets demoralized and its role players aren't hitting their perimeter shots, the Heat are dead in the water. That's what happened in Game 3 this past Wednesday when the Nuggets won, 109-94, on the road. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat, 58-33, and outscored them by 26 points in the paint.

So it's easy to see why the Heat are a home 'dog for this Game 4.

Discount Miami at your own peril, however. The Heat have been resilient all through the postseason. Just when you want to count them out they re-emerge. I see the Heat doing that again in this spot. I certainly don't expect the Heat to make 49 percent of their 3-point shots like they did in their Game 2 upset. But Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Max Strus should all combine to shoot much better than the 12-for-43 (28 percent) they hit from the floor in Wednesday's loss.

Jokic and Murray played their ''A'' games in Game 3. Not so with Miami's stars. Jimmy Butler couldn't even reach five assists. He and Adebayo were a combined 18-for-45 (40 percent) from the field. They are due to shoot better while Jokic and especially Murray can't play much better than they did on Wednesday.

Eric Spoelstra has bolstered his already strong reputation during this postseason. He just could be the best coach in the NBA. So the Heat have that going. I expect they'll have super defensive intensity, which they lacked in Game 3 especially when they started falling way behind.

The Heat have covered seven of the last nine times following a loss. I'm banking on a strong bounce effort from Miami.

There were 219 points scored in Miami's 111-108 Game 2 win against the Nuggets this past Sunday. 

This is what it took to reach that number: The Nuggets shot 52 percent from the floor. The Heat hit 49 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 35 shots from 3-point range for 49 percent. The teams combined to make 37 of 42 free throws for 88 percent. 

Yet because the pace was slow, it was a major sweat for that total to go Over 216. 

The tempo is going to be slow and deliberate again in this Game 3 except I don't see either team shooting nearly that well - especially the Heat from 3-point range. I also don't see 42 free throws. There were 22 free throws in Game 1 with the Heat getting to the line only twice. 

Miami was 27th in 3-point field goal percentage during the season at 34.4 percent. The Heat have shot much better from beyond the arc during the playoffs at 39.2 percent. But they are not a 49 percent 3-point shooting team. No team is. That Game 2 3-point shooting was an outlier. 

Erik Spoelstra did make adjustments following Miami's Game 1 loss, pressing more and using a 2-3 zone more. He also resurrected veteran Kevin Love, whose height and rebounding bothered Jamal Murray. 

Murray also was burdened defensively as the Heat seemed to key on him. That might have affected his offensive game. Michael Porter Jr. has been nearly invisible for Denver. He's missed 14 of 17 3-pointers while averaging just 9.5 points. This is putting a lot of pressure on Nikola Jokic to do everything and on Aaron Gordon to produce points and Gordon isn't a big scorer being more of a rebounder, shot-blocker and defender. 

Jimmy Butler isn't playing well for the Heat. Perhaps still bothered by a sore ankle and the fatigue of carrying the Heat to this late point of the season, he's averaging 17 points in this championship series while shooting 13-of-33 (39.3 percent) from the field. The Nuggets have also been keying on Butler. It's a lot to ask of unsung Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin, who has been under the weather, to produce big scoring games in lieu of Butler's disappointing offense. 

The Nuggets are better than the Heat. But the Nuggets learned a big lesson in their Game 2 Sunday home loss to Miami. They can't mail anything in. No overconfidence. Winning seven consecutive playoff games and being unbeaten at home during the postseason doesn't mean anything.

It's going to take maximum energy and better play from every Denver starter not named Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have had three days to pick up on that. I believe they've learned their lesson. I see the Nuggets producing their most intense game of the series.

I also don't believe the Heat can make an astonishing 17 of 35 (49 percent) 3-pointers like they did in Game 2.

Miami has lost its last two home playoff games falling to the Celtics by one and 17 points. The Nuggets have won their last three road games beating the Lakers by two and 11 points and the Suns by 25. So don't think Denver can't win away from home.

Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope did not play up to their capabilities in Game 2. Yet Denver still only lost by three points. All three should play much better along with the Nuggets playing with far more intensity and having the best player on the planet in Jokic. Given that, it's not asking too much for the Nuggets to win this Game 3.

This is Denver's lowest total of the season and an overreaction to the Nuggets' 104-93 Game 1 home win this past Thursday.

That was a feel-out game. The Heat were still on fumes following their Game 7 upset win against the Celtics and were not used to the high mountain altitude in Denver. The Nuggets were rusty having not played in 10 days.

All of this showed in Thursday's opener. The teams combined to shoot just 31.8 percent from 3-point range making 21-of-66 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat were only 13-of-39 from 3-point range with six of those 3-pointers coming when the game already was out of reach. This despite getting good looks throughout the game.

This was Miami's worst shooting 3-point game of the playoffs. They were shooting 39 percent from 3-point range during the postseason entering this championship matchup. The Nuggets shot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc going into the playoffs. They made only eight of their 27 3-point shots for 29.6 percent.

The Heat also only got to shoot two free throws! It was the first time Jimmy Butler didn't have a free throw attempt during the postseason. The Nuggets are not some dominant defensive team either. They ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage. I see Butler coming out extra aggressive for this Game 2.

It was obvious in Game 1 that the Nuggets' frontcourt size was too much for the Heat. Nikola Jokic isn't just a great triple-threat talent. He's also extremely intelligent. He can find Miami's weakness and exploit it either by scoring, or passing off. Michael Porter Jr. isn't likely to miss nine of 11 3-point shots. He finished in the top 20 in 3-point shooting accuracy during the regular season at 41.4 percent.

There's not much Miami coach Erik Spoelstra can do. One option would be for him to go with his best offensive weapons playing them as much as possible. That would be the dream scenario for this Over and could happen as the Nuggets are easily capable of reaching their season average of 115.8 points. They were the No. 1 shooting team in the NBA during the regular season making 50.4 percent of their field goals.

The Heat are the first play-in team to ever make the NBA Championship Series. But they need more time to rest and recuperate after upsetting the Celtics on the road this past Monday in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Even if they had ample time to prepare, though, I don't see the Heat staying within double-digits of the home Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1.

The Nuggets have been idle since May 22. They've won six in a row and are 42-7 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.

If the Heat thought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were a load, wait until they encounter Nikola Jokic and James Murray. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and Murray had a series for the ages in Denver's four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray led all scorers in that series averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, hitting 40.5 percent of his 37 3-point attempts and sinking 19-of-20 free throws.

The Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers and they surely will out-rebound the undersized Heat.

The Heat and Celtics meet in Game 7 for the Eastern Conference championship. The talk is all about how the Celtics have a great chance to be the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit.

That's fine and dandy. But when it comes to betting, I find a different angle - the total. It is the lowest of the series by far. The totals have ranged from 209-to-216 in the first six games.

This one is much lower because of the perception there will be tremendous defensive intensity.

Sure neither team will be holding back. But there is way too much good 3-point shooting in today's NBA. That offsets any extra defensive effort.

The Celtics are averaging 108.8 points in the series. Miami is averaging 110.1 points. The Celtics were the fourth-highest scoring team during the regular season at 118 points per game.

There have been at least 207 combined points scored in each of the six games.

Even if the referees let the teams play super physical, there still are going to be fouls called. If the game is called tight, there will be lots of fouls called. The Heat were the second-best foul shooting team in the league. Boston ranked sixth in free throw percentage.

Jimmy Butler shot 5-for-21 from the field in Game 6. Miami still scored 104 points. It's worth noting that Gabe Vincent, who is averaging 20.3 points during his last three games, played 41 minutes this past Saturday in Game 6. So it appears he's past his ankle injury.

The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they are dealing with a stacked deck on the road going against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who is shooting much better going 18-for-34 from the floor the past two games. It's an added bonus if Malcolm Brogdon can play for Boston after missing Game 6 with an arm injury.

Bottom line is the oddsmaker has overcompensated on the total because it's Game 7 giving value to the Over.

A combination of Boston's improved defense and injuries are taking a huge toll on Miami. The Celtics have held the Heat to 97 and 99 points, respectively, during the past two games to cut Miami's once insurmountable 3-0 series lead to 3-2.

Boston has forced 32 turnovers during these past two games, 10 by Bam Adebayo. The Celtics have double-teamed Jimmy Butler much more than they did during the first two games of the series. A 53.9 percent shooter from the floor during the regular season, Butler is just 19-for-44 (43 percent) from the field during the last three games.

Losing underrated Gabe Vincent to an ankle injury has hurt the Heat more than perceived. Already without scoring wings/guards Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, the Heat desperately need Vincent's outside scoring. Vincent averaged a combined 23 points in Games 3 and 4 hitting 16-of-24 shots from the floor. However, he missed Game 5. He's questionable for tonight's game. Even if he plays, his shooting may be off because of his ankle injury.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra doesn't have many viable options with veterans Kyle Lowery and Kevin Love each well past their primes and looking very old. The Heat's best option is to completely sell out on defense since the Celtics have stymied their offense.

Miami certainly can win relying heavily on defense. They gave up the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season. It's defense, not offense, after all that is Miami's calling card.

The Celtics are not unscathed in the health department. Guard Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an elbow injury. It caused him to leave Game 5. Brogdon was Boston's third-leading scorer during the regular season at 14.9 points a game. He also was fourth on the team in assists.

Both teams made 51 percent of their field goals in Game 5. Yet there were just 207 points scored. That's because it was the slowest paced game of the series.

I'm expecting another slow tempo game only this time without such outstanding shooting. That should ensure a third straight Under in the series.

Kudos to the Celtics for staying alive with their 116-99 road win against the Heat in Tuesday's Game 4.

But it's not a fluke the Heat lead this Eastern Conference Finals series, 3-1. They are the superior team.

Forget the regular season. It doesn't matter. What does matter is the Heat peaking having eliminated the Bucks - who were perhaps the top team in the NBA - Knicks and winning the first three games against the Celtics before stumbling on Tuesday by playing a poor second half.

I like Miami because it has a monster edge in coaching, the best all-around player on the court in Jimmy Butler, the best low-post player in Bam Adebayo and is the stronger defensive team.

The Celtics are perceived to have the more talented roster. I don't buy into that. At worst, Butler and Adebayo give Miami the second and third-best players on the court if Jayson Tatum is the No. 1 player. Jaylen Brown is having a bad series. His head doesn't seem right. Al Horford is showing his age as the long season winds down for Boston, while the Heat are getting major contributions from below-the-radar rotation players Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson.

Coaching is crucial in the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is coaching rings around inexperienced rookie Boston coach Joe Mazzulla.

The Heat have covered in 10 of their last 13 games.

Yes, the Celtics are back home. But they are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven home games.

Mike Budenholzer, Monty Williams, Doc Rivers and Nick Nurse are about to have company in the fired coaches department.

Sometime Tuesday night after the Celtics get swept by the Heat, a team they were 13 games better than during the regular season, Boston management needs to pull the plug on Joe Mazzulla.

The Celtics have shown no leadership, coaching ability and guts in losing the first three games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Boston was outscored by an average of 6.5 points in its two home games in the series and then was blown out by 26 points in Miami during Sunday's Game 3. The Celtics have surrendered an average of 120.6 points to the Heat, who were the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.

Somewhere Red Auerbach is turning over in his grave. I've closely watched the NBA for 60 years and have never seen a worse coaching job in a playoff series than what the overmatched Mazzulla has done. Every button he touches is the wrong one. Boston's confidence and morale is shattered.

So why should things be any different in Game 4? Answer: They won't be.

The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 6-0 in their six home playoff games. Mazzulla isn't suddenly going to outcoach Erik Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are still going to give Miami the best all-around player on the court and best big man even if Mazzulla decides he might want to finally double-team Butler a little more.

The Celtics are 31-for-106 (29.2 percent) from 3-point range. Jaylen Brown, showing he's not ready for prime time, has missed 18 of 20 3-pointers. The Celtics are due to make a higher percentage of their 3-point shots. But I have no confidence in them to do that - and sadly neither do they.

Judging by the first three games of this series, Denver clearly is the superior team. The Nuggets have a huge height advantage, they are the more physically imposing team, are getting better play from their bench than LA is and have the look of a champion while the Lakers are worn down - physically and mentally.

The Nuggets proved they could win on the road, beating the Lakers, 119-108, in LA. this past Saturday night. Denver was in control all the way. So I see the wrong team being favored.

The Lakers did a remarkable job to even reach this point. There were 12 teams ahead of them in late February. LA became the first team to advance to the conference finals after being eight games under .500.

But 13 playoff games against the Grizzlies and Warriors and now three games against the Nuggets with just one day spaced out have taken a huge toll. It's caught up to 38-year-old LeBron James, fragile Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers.

The Lakers don't have the height to contest the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is averaging 27 points, 14.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists in the series. LA can't stop him. Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. They have been the two best players in the series. The Lakers have no answers for either one.

Denver's support cast has outplayed the Lakers, too. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have hurt the Lakers not just with their scoring, but with their defense.

The Lakers are averaging 105.5 points in the last two games. That's 12 points down from their season average.

Getting points with Denver is just an added bonus.

The first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals series went Over. Now it's time for an Under with the teams playing in Miami.

The Heat were the No. 2 defensive team in the league. They've been tough defensively at home giving up an average of 97.1 points in their last six postseason games, which consisted of three games against the Knicks, two versus the Bucks and one against the Bulls.

The Celtics need to find their defense. I expect Boston to play with desperate intensity on defense down 2-0 in the series. The Celtics ranked in the top-five in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Maybe if Brad Stevens would immediately fire Joe Mazzulla and install himself as coach again the Celtics might have a chance to beat the Heat. But since that isn't going to happen, the Heat are likely to keep winning especially now that they are the home team.

There are five things we've learned from the first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals, which the Heat lead, 2-0:

Jimmy Butler is the best all-around player on the court. Grant Williams is an idiot. Jaylen Brown is not a star. Bam Adebayo is the best big man on the court. Mazzulla is hugely overmatched by Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines.

The Heat won the first two games of this series on the road by an average of 6 1/2 points. The Celtics aren't playing championship caliber defense giving up an average of 117 points to Miami.

Maybe the Celtics turn on their defensive switch. I don't see it. I have absolutely zero faith in rookie coach Mazzulla. Miami has the momentum and is the more confident team. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They have won all five of their playoff home games.

Getting points with the Heat is just a bonus.

The Nuggets and their coach, Michael Malone, believe they are being disrespected by the national media who tend to play up the high-profile Lakers.

Yes, perhaps Nikola Jokic should have won a third straight MVP award.

But the Nuggets can't be considered a great team if they can't win on the road. Denver has yet to prove that. The Nuggets finished the regular season an embarrassing 19-22 away from home and are 2-3 SU and ATS in their five playoff road games.

The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home during the postseason. They've covered five of the past six times they've hosted Denver.

The Nuggets lead the series 2-0 by virtue of winning both of their home games. However, the Nuggets didn't cover either game winning by six and five points, respectively. Denver had to hang on to win these games despite Jokic playing at the highest level and Jamal Murray averaging 34 points.

The teams have each won four of the eight quarters played. The Lakers have been to the free throw line 12 more times than the Nuggets. And this was in Denver. Now the scene shifts to LA where the Lakers are in must-win mode and the Nuggets have played much worse away from Denver.

The Lakers aren't just a two man team of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have stepped up, combining to average 41.5 points per game.

The oddsmaker seems to be anticipating Celtics money making Boston this big of a favorite. The Zig/Zag is in full force here with the Celtics down 0-1 in the series and playing at home. 

But I'm not buying into it. There's too much value on the Heat - just like in Wednesday's series opener - to turn down this inflated point spread.
The Celtics outscored Miami in three of the four quarters in Game 1. Yet the Heat still won, 123-116. 

The Heat are playing with tremendous confidence. They are not the No. 8 seed that had to beat the Bulls in a play-in game to even reach the playoffs. It's wrong to think of them in that context. Certainly the Bucks and Knicks don't think that way now. 

Miami is an extremely well-coached, a strong defensive team - No. 2 in the league in fewest points allowed - that is being willed to win by Jimmy Butler. He's the best all-around player on the court. The Heat also have the best big man, Bam Adebayo. 

These teams know each extremely well, which should portend a much closer game than the oddsmaker projects. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Heat lost by more than nine points. I certainly want Erik Spoelstra going for me rather than rookie coach Joe Mazzulla. 

Miami has covered eight of the last 10 times when playing on one day's rest. The Heat also are 6-1 in their last seven games following a cover and are 14-5 ATS the last 19 times playing the Celtics in Boston.

The Lakers shot 55 percent from the floor in Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals series against the Nuggets on Tuesday. They hit 46 percent of their 3-point shots and were 23 of 26 from the foul line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis played at their superstar best combining to go 23-for-39 from the field for 59 percent.

Yet the Lakers still lost by six points, 132-126.

The Lakers couldn't overcome Nikola Jokic - the best player on the planet - a huge size disadvantage and Denver's strong home-court edge.

The Nuggets are 7-0 in their home playoff games. The 132 points is the most points they've scored in their dozen playoff games this spring.

The Game 2 point spread, however, opened lower than it was in Game 1.

So I'm going Nuggets not forgetting Denver is a No. 1 seed. LA is a seventh-seed.

Lakers coach Darvin Ham prefers to go with a small, three-guard oriented lineup. That's not going to work against the Nuggets, who have a frontline of 6-foot-11 Jokic, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. and 6-8 Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets slaughtered the Lakers on the boards, 47-30.

Ham isn't a moron. He knows he can't go small against the Nuggets. But to do that, he and the Lakers have to adjust on the road. LA also is trailing in a playoff series for the first time having opened with road wins against the Grizzlies and Warriors. All of this could put the Lakers out of their comfort zone.

Jokic was unstoppable with 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The Lakers have no antidote for him. Meanwhile James and Davis could be pressed to repeat their top-notch Game 1 performances particularly Davis, who was 14-of-23 from the field and made all 11 of his free throws scoring 40 points.

Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games - and that includes not covering against the Lakers in Game 1. LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five away games. The Lakers also are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 games in Denver.

Prop Bet

Rui Hachimura OVER 11 1/2 points

Here's the thing about Rui Hachimura. When he plays, he's an underrated scorer. Lakers coach Darvin Ham figured out in Game 1 that he couldn't play his usual small lineup of three guards against the much taller Nuggets.

It took Ham a half to realize that. Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 rotation forward, played the entire fourth quarter. That's a strong sign Hachimura is going to draw big minutes in this Game 2. He responded by scoring 17 points in Game 1. So I look for him to score at least a dozen points in this game. 

Line value, situation, better defensive team and a huge coaching edge. Those are the four main factors that put me on Miami for this Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals series.

I'm surprised the line is this high. Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not Doc Rivers and choke artists James Harden and Joel Embiid.

The Heat know how to play defense - No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game - and they are rested. Miami hasn't played since Wednesday. The Celtics still could be celebrating their dismantling of the 76ers this past Sunday.

Miami is extremely dangerous with time to prepare. The Heat upset the Bucks on the road in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami repeated in Game 1 of its second round series upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

The Heat are 39-17 (70 percent) ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They also have covered 13 of the past 18 times against the Celtics.

Spoelstra could be the best coach in the NBA. He rates a huge edge on Boston's inexperienced Joe Mazzulla.

So we've reached Game 7 in this 76ers-Celtics series. That means plenty of defensive intensity, right?

Yes ... but the oddsmaker has wildly overcompensated for that. The total for the first six games ranged from 211 to 215 1/2. Now it's down more than 10 from that norm. It's too much. The 76ers haven't had a total nearly this low all season. Neither has Boston.

Jayson Tatum is going to shoot better than the 5-for-21 from the field he did in Game 6 and Joel Embiid is going to get more shots than the 19 he had in Game 6, hardly touching the ball during the final four minutes. The 76ers will rectify that.

The 76ers averaged 117 points in their two road victories against Boston. If anything was reinforced to the 76ers in their 95-86 home loss to the Celtics in Game 6 it's that they must push pace in order to create open shots and better looks.

I believe the 76ers have picked up on that. The Over is 4-0 the past four times following a Philadelphia ATS loss. As for the Celtics, the Over has cashed in eight of their last 10 games.

Both teams are excellent from the foul line and from 3-point range.

The 76ers were No. 1 in free throw shooting accuracy during the regular season. Boston ranked fourth in free throw percentage.

The Celtics also were sixth in 3-point shooting percentage. The 76ers were No. 1 in 3-point accuracy.

There isn't going to be a lot of substituting here. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Embiid and James Harden are going to be firing. I trust them to get Over this extremely low total.

Sure the Knicks could upset the Heat in Miami. But it would take a repeat of their Game 5 performance this past Wednesday when their Big Three of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett combined to score 88 points on 27 of 52 shooting from the floor for 52 percent, while sinking 11 3-pointers.

And, realistically, I don't see the Knicks duplicating that feat. Not in Miami where the Heat have dominated in the postseason. Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS at Kaseya Center in the playoffs. This includes two victories against the Bucks by a combined 27 points and two wins against the Knicks by a combined 27 points never trailing except for 24 seconds.

It's not a fluke either. The Heat have established they are the superior team.

The Knicks gained some self-respect and redemption with their 112-103 Game 5 victory. But that's as far as they go. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 times they've hosted the Knicks.

The NBA playoffs often are decided by three things - superstars, coaching and defense. The 76ers have the edge on Boston in all three of these categories. That's why they are going to end this series with a home victory today. Getting points with Philadelphia is just a bonus. 

Let's start with star power. The 76ers have a pair of superstars, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is stepping up and Tobias Harris can be counted on. Boston has one superstar, Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown certainly is good, but he falls short of being a superstar. The Celtics don't have a reliable third wheel who can produce points the way Maxey and Harris can. 

Now, let's talk coaching. Doc Rivers is a proven winner. The Celtics know that better than any team. Maybe Rivers is more of a player's coach than a master strategist. But pitted against rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, Rivers is Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich rolled into one. 
The 76ers' coaching edge isn't tiny, but huge. 

From 2004 through the end of last season, the Celtics had strong coaching with Rivers, Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. The Celtics, however, made the decision to suspend Udoka for this season for what they labeled ''violations of team policies.'' 

Udoka's chief assistant was 34-year-old whiz kid Will Hardy. Unfortunately for Boston, Danny Ainge poached Hardy for Utah. So the Celtics named Mazzulla, a lesser assistant coach, as their interim coach even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. 

When the Celtics got off to a hot start, the team removed the interim label making Mazzulla permanent head coach. Boston may want to rethink that move. Playoff coaching is different then regular season coaching. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is a master in that difference. Milwaukee's Mike Budenholzer wasn't. Mazzulla isn't either. This is a fatal weakness. The Bucks knew it. That's why they fired Budenholzer even though he had the best regular-season winning percentage of any Bucks coach in Milwaukee history.

It's not just Mazzulla's highly noticeable deficiency in failing to take timeouts at the proper time. Mazzulla hasn't proven adept at developing the right rotation, nor in making  adjustments. Udoka, aided by Hardy, were able to mitigate the Celtics' offensive inconsistencies, by stepping up defensively. The Celtics have yet to show that ability under Mazzulla.

Boston gave up an average of 122.5 points in its last four games to the Hawks during its first-round series. I have no faith in Mazzulla that he can lead the Celtics to a road victory against the 76ers with the season on the line after losing Game 5 at home by 12 points. 

The strain of playing for the fifth time in nine days during this marquee playoff series, should result in an Under here. These are teams whose key players are older. So I'm expecting a slow pace with both the Lakers and Warriors playing at peak defensive efficiency and intensity.

The Under is 4-1 the past five times the Lakers have played on one day's rest. The Under has cashed five of the last seven times the Warriors have played on one day's rest.

The Lakers have held the Warriors to an average of 99 points during the last two games. There were just 205 points scored in the Lakers' 104-101 Game 4 victory two days ago.

If the Warriors were to build a big lead - which could happen judging by the point spread - the Lakers might concede early in order to rest LeBron James and Anthony Davis knowing they would have two more games to close out Golden State.

Lost in the glare of the 76ers' dramatic 116-115 home overtime victory against the Celtics this past Sunday was this game had the slowest tempo of any game in the NBA playoffs this season. There were 214 points scored in regulation because of excellent shooting, especially from James Harden, who made 16 of 23 (69.5 percent) shots from the field. Harden shot 44.1 percent from the floor during the regular season. He was 5-for-28 shooting from the field in his two previous games.

Now the series is tied at 2-2 with the teams heading back to Boston for Tuesday's Game 5. Anticipate a maximum defensive intensity game between a pair of teams that ranked in the top-five in defensive scoring and 3-point defense during the regular season.

I'm expecting a crackdown, too, on offensive players getting away with obvious push-off fouls that weren't called in Game 4 with Jayson Tatum's 3-pointer with 38 seconds left in overtime being the most obvious example.

Because I don't trust the Warriors on the road.

Golden State has lost 33 of its 46 road games this season. If you go back to the end of last season, the Warriors are 17-37-1 ATS (31 percent) ATS in their last 55 away contests. They also have failed to cover during their last four road games against the Lakers.

LA destroyed the Warriors, 127-97, at home in Saturday's Game 3. That pushed LA's postseason home record to 5-0. All of the victories have been by six or more points.

The Lakers have peaked at the right time going 16-5 since March 17. I trust their defense more than the Warriors when Golden State is on the road. LeBron James and Anthony Davis received extra rest from Saturday's blowout victory.

Discount their two play-in games and this will be the first time in eight playoff games the Heat are favored. Justified? Yes. They are home and I fully expect Jimmy Butler to play having had five days to deal with his sprained ankle.

But this doesn't mean Miami is the right side.

The Knicks are 38-16-1(70 percent) in their last 55 road games. Julius Randle showed he was past his ankle injury by scoring 25 points, pulling down 12 rebounds and dishing off eight assists in the Knicks' 111-105 Game 2 win this past Tuesday. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are playing at high levels, too, for the Knicks. Josh Hart has been a key role player for New York also.

Butler was superman in leading Miami to a stunning upset of Milwaukee in the Heat's first round matchup. Butler, however, may not be as effective because of his sore ankle. Remember, too, the Heat are without their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter with Tyler Herro out.

The Heat fluctuated from being 6-to-10 point road underdogs to the Knicks in Game 2. Now they're currently four-point favorites. So I see plenty of line value to the Knicks. Miami is 11-28-1 ATS (29 percent) in their last 40 games following a point spread cover.

It's a given the Suns are going to win Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets, right? After all, Phoenix is down 0-2 and in must-win mode coming home. The Suns are 30-14 at home. The Nuggets are 20-23 on the road.

But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here.

You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup.

Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving.

The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points.

Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series.

Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume.

Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34.

Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them.

We saw it Wednesday night with the Celtics. We'll see it tonight with the Warriors. NBA teams down 0-1 in a series at home in Game 2 don't lose and they cover the spread. The record speaks for itself - 20-1 SU, 19-2 ATS since 2018 in that role.

The Lakers caught the Warriors coming off a Game 7 road win against Sacramento when they defeated Golden State, 117-112, this past Tuesday. The Warriors had beaten the Kings just two days before Game 1.

Golden State will be fully ready and prepared now for Game 2. The Warriors shot just six free throws in that Game 1 loss. The Lakers went to the line 29 times making 25. Even with that unstainable disparity, the Warriors had a chance to tie the game with less than 10 seconds left if Jordan Poole could have made an open 3-point shot.

The Lakers paid a price to win Game 1. They played fragile Anthony Davis for 44 minutes.

LA also upset the Grizzlies on the road in Game 1 of its previous series. The Lakers then went on to lose Game 2 in Memphis by 10 points.

The Warriors have played far better at home this season than on the road. Their home point spread record is an amazing: 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games for 68 percent.

The Celtics were 10 1/2-point home favorites in Monday's Game 1. They lost to the 76ers straight-up. Boston opened double-digit favorites again for today's Game 2.

Maybe the Celtics even the series. But I won't turn down double-digit points with the 76ers to find out.

Boston lost Game 1 despite shooting 58.7 percent from the field, taking advantage of no Joel Embiid - who isn't likely to play here either - to outscore the 76ers, 66-42, in the paint and committed just 10 fouls. Yet lost.

The Celtics can talk about increasing their defensive intensity. The reality is, though, the Celtics were overconfident hosting the 76ers when Philly didn't have league MVP Embiid. Maybe Boston won't be overconfident anymore. The Celtics, however, can't be trusted to suddenly play better defense. Not when they've given up an average of 121.8 points during their last five games.

I don't expect James Harden to shoot 17-of-30 from the field like he did in Game 1. But Harden has his confidence up and he's backed by some underrated 76er scorers who were held back during the regular season by Embiid's dominance. This list includes Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed.

The 76ers are 12-5 without Embiid this season. Even more impressive is they are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 away games minus Embiid. Philadelphia also is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games.

(Update: Since I released this play last night, the line has come down with word coming that Embiid may indeed play. I like the 76ers getting more than 6 1/2 points with or without Embiid. So the handicap holds.)

I thought the Warriors might be invincible at home. They aren't. During their last two home games, the Lakers lost, 118-99, to the Kings last Friday and just nipped the Kings, 126-125, on April 23.

The Lakers, unlike the Kings, have superstars with playoff experience. LA also is the more rested team having eliminated the Grizzlies in a 40-point blowout this past Friday.

Golden State, on the other hand, is rushed back on the court after beating the Kings in Game 7 of its series just two days ago. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS following a victory.

The Lakers received excellent contributions from a number of their rotation players stepping up, including Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Warriors, who they beat three of four times during the regular season.

Here's the thing about the Nuggets. They were outshot by the Suns, 51.2 percent to 47.5 percent, and outscored in the paint, 60-48, by the Suns during Saturday's Game 1. Kevin Durant had a big game scoring 29 points, hitting 12 of 19 shots from the field, while Nikola Jokic made just 9-of-21 shots from the field.

Yet the Nuggets won Game 1 - and won it by 18 points, 125-107.

Denver is just so tough at home being 38-7 and is peaking. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are healthy. Guards Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun know how to effectively defend Chris Paul, who got a pass in the Suns' first-round series victory against the Clippers with LA minus Paul George and then Kawhi Leonard the last couple of games. George and Leonard not only are great scorers, but excellent defenders.

The Suns had seven more turnovers than the Nuggets in Game 1 and pulled down 11 fewer rebounds.

Then there's Jamal Murray. He's the hottest player in the playoffs during the past two games, averaging 39 points while making 25-of-47 shots from the field and sinking 11-of-20 shots from 3-point range.

The Nuggets have won and covered four in a row against the Suns, including all three games played in Denver. Phoenix is 3-7 in its last 10 road games.

There were just 217 points scored in the Kings' 118-99 Game 6 road win against the Warriors Friday. Sacramento's upset victory has set up today's Game 7. It's not difficult to imagine both teams playing their most intense defense and tempo being slower than perceived with this being the team's third game in five days. Certainly these teams know each other extremely well by now.

The Under has covered 62 percent of the time during the past 63 Game 7's.

The Warriors-Kings haven't scored more than 220 points during three of their last five games in the series.

Rust, a feeling-out-process and two outstanding defensive teams with defensive gurus as their coaches. Those are among the reasons why I like this Game 1 of the Heat-Knicks series to go Under.

The Heat stunned the Bucks in a high-scoring series. The Knicks were the opposite. They disposed of the higher seeded Cavaliers in five games in their series with all five games going Under.

Both teams last played this past Wednesday. So they've had three full days to rest and game plan. Miami's Erik Spoelstra and New York's Tom Thibodeau are elite defensive coaches.

The Heat are without Tyler Herro, their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter. The Knicks ranked No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. They held the Cavaliers to an average of 89 points during the last three games of their series.

The Knicks' leading scorer, Julius Randle, is hobbled by a sprained ankle. He averaged 14.4 points in the Cavaliers series, down from his 25.1 points he averaged during the regular season. Miami surrendered the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season.

The teams last played a month ago. There were 193 points scored in that game.

Great season by the Kings, but it's closeout time now for the Warriors. The defending world champions have won the past three games in the series. They need to win this one at home knowing a loss forces them to go back to Sacramento for Game 7.

The Warriors are 12-32 on the road and 35-8 at home, including 2-0 against the Kings during this series. Needless to say, they play far better at home. Their 40-17-1 (70 percent) ATS record in their last 58 home games is proof of that.

But this huge home/road split didn't stop the Warriors from inflicting a huge defeat on the Kings in Game 5 at Sacramento, 123-116, this past Wednesday.

That loss has to be demoralizing for the upstart Kings and a huge reinforced confidence boost for the Warriors.

Golden State has all hands on deck now with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II aiding superstar Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. The Kings don't have the defense to keep the Warriors in check ranking 25th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Kings need to keep pace offensively with the Warriors to stay in the game. That's even more difficult for them now with their star guard De'Aaron Fox hampered by a broken finger. The injury affected his shooting as Fox was just 9-of-25 from the floor in Game 5 in his first game dealing with the injury.

This series has been much higher scoring than expected. The Over has cashed in each of the first four games.

The Heat have the top-seeded Bucks on the verge of elimination up 3-1 in the series. Jimmy Butler is averaging 36.5 points in the series and the Heat have made 60-of-126 3-point shots for a 47.6 3-point shooting percentage.

This blazing shooting can't continue.

The Heat ranked 27th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.4 percent. Butler is a great player, but he's not some insane scorer like he's been through the first four games. Only once in his 13-year NBA career has he averaged more than 23 points. He averaged 22.9 points this season.

The Bucks ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and had the fourth-best defensive efficiency in the league. The Heat were the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is a defensive guru.

The intensity should be at its highest point for this game, especially from the Bucks.

The Timberwolves got their playoff victory coming from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Nuggets in overtime at home during Sunday's Game 4 of their series.

So the Timberwolves gained a little pride. The grim reality is they are down 3-1 in the series and back in Denver where they figure to get clobbered.

The Nuggets aren't going to screw around now with this overmatched opponent that could be missing three key rotation players. Minnesota definitely is minus injured Jaden McDaniels and Nat Reid and now Kyle Anderson is questionable with an eye injury.

Expect an intense effort from the now-aroused Nuggets at home. which should insure a double-digit victory. Denver has beaten Minnesota the past three times at home by an average of 24 points, including a 29-point win in Game 1. Denver has also covered six of the past seven times following a loss.

The Grizzlies have been road underdogs 16 times this season. Their record in those games? 0-16 SU, 2-14 ATS.

That's powerful evidence that this isn't a good spot for Memphis.

The Lakers are peaking at the right time. Superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both playing at high levels. The Lakers also are getting key contributions from role players Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder.

The Grizzlies split the opening two games of this series at home. But they couldn't hang with the Lakers during Saturday's Game 3 in LA. The final score of LA winning, 111-101, is misleading. The Grizzlies were never in the game. The Lakers buried them, 35-9, in the first quarter.

Memphis lost by double-digits despite a monster performance from Ja Morant, who scored 45 points while shooting 13-of-26 from the floor. Morant scored more than half of those points during the meaningless fourth quarter.

The Grizzlies are minus big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Adams led the Grizzlies in rebounding while Clarke was fourth.

James is at his competitive best spurred on in part by being goaded by the stupidity and dirty play of Dillon Brooks, who called James old and not worthy of respect.

The Hawks just didn't beat the Celtics, 130-122, in Friday's Game 3 of this series by riding an overdue great shooting game from Trae Young. They did it by also outscoring the Celtics by 14 points in the paint and grabbing 19 more rebounds.

Atlanta has been good at home, much better than on the road. The Hawks' confidence is up and I give them a coaching edge with Quin Snyder against playoff rookie Joe Mazzulla.

There's also a possibility the Celitcs won't have guard Marcus Smart, who is questionable with a tailbone injury.

If there's a key number in the NBA it's 6. So this is enough points for me to get involved with the Hawks.

Playoff basketball in the NBA is where defenses step up, right? You couldn't tell that at all from watching the first two games of the Heat-Bucks series. The first two games have flown Over the total.

I'm looking for reality to get a grip in this Game 3.

It doesn't matter if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play or not. I don't see the Bucks matching their two-game playoff average of 127.5 points, nor coming close to matching their series shooting percentage from the floor of 51.5 percent. Miami is the No. 2 scoring defense in the league. Erik Spoelstra is a well respected defensive coach. The Heat are home now. The teams last played on Wednesday so there has been ample time to game plan and adjust.

The same can be said for Milwaukee. The Bucks were No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. However, the Heat are averaging 126 points - 13 above their league-low season average - and shooting 56.5 percent from the field. That's insane.

While Antetokounmpo's status is taking center stage, the Heat definitely will be without Tyler Herro. He's Miami's third-leading scorer, its top 3-point shooter and best free throw shooter. Herro averages 20.1 points a game. The next closest to Herro on Miami's scoring list is Max Strus, who averages 11.5 points.

So, yes, I'm expecting a huge regression in the scoring and shooting percentages of these teams beginning with this Game 3.

I am far from convinced the Cavaliers are the better team in this series. I'm backing that belief up by taking the Knicks on the money line.

The Knicks were 23-18 at home during the regular season. They beat Cleveland both times at home. The Cavaliers have a losing road record. They also lost 13 of 16 times straight-up when they were a road underdog, which is the case here.

The Knicks upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland in Game 1. The Knicks - fat and content - mailed in Game 2 and were spanked, 107-90. Now the series shifts to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks won't be fat and happy here. Their intensity will be full bore. They are dangerous with a healthy Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson. The Knicks are going to get tremendous crowd support.

The Cavaliers are an outstanding defensive team. Their offense is heavily reliant upon Donovan Mitchell. He had trouble shooting at spacious Madison Square Garden in the two regular season games there hitting just 17 of 46 shots from the floor for 37 percent.

Cleveland has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to Madison Square Garden.

The key to getting this Over is believing each team can score 120 points. This is playoff basketball so that may seem like a tall order. But I see it getting accomplished in this Game 3 matchup.

The Kings have shot 45.3 percent from the floor during the first two games. They shot 49.4 percent from the field during the regular season. They've made 30 percent of their 3-point shots. They made 36.9 percent during the regular season.

Yet the Kings still are averaging 120 points per game in the series. They are due to shoot better. They were the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, while ranking No. 2 in shooting percentage and ninth in 3-point percentage.

Golden State ranked 21st in scoring defense and was below average, too, in 3-point defense. And that was with Draymond Green, its best defender. Green is suspended for this game.

Tempo is going to be huge here. The Warriors will run with anybody, especially at home. But will the Kings accommodate them? Yes, according to Sacramento coach Mike Brown. Here's what he was quoted as saying, ''We keep talking pace, pace, pace, pace. We gotta keep playing fast, fast, fast, fast, even faster than (Game 2) because that's the way we play. We generate a lot of points by just pushing the ball.''

Green gets his touches, but his presence will be missed more on defense. The Warriors have better statistics across the board when playing at home. They will look to bury the Kings down 0-2 in the series in must-win mode and needing positive reinforcement.

It shouldn't be that shocking Golden State is down 0-2 to Sacramento. After all, the first two games of this series were in Sacramento. The Warriors were 11-30 on the road.

But now the Warriors return home. That makes all the difference. Golden State is 33-8 at home. All of the Warriors' statistics are better at home than on the road. Each of Golden State's past nine home victories have been by at least eight points. The Warriors are 39-16-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 56 home contests.

I'm not worried the Warriors won't have Draymond Green. I'm being objective here since I haven't despised a Golden State player as much as I do Green since Rick Barry (yes I go that far back). Barry was a whiner. Green is a whiner and a dirty player.

I digress. I'll gladly accept the tradeoff of laying fewer points without Green. Because the Warriors won't need Green to produce an all-out effort at home in must-win mode while the Kings come in fat and happy having accomplished what they set out to do in Sacramento.

I'm expecting a professional, focused effort from the defending world champions without having to be concerned about Green's distractions and drama. Golden State went 2-0 at home this season when they didn't have Green.

The Kings are listing their best big man, Domantas Sabonis, as questionable with a bruised sternum. I fully expect Sabonis to play. It's just an unexpected bonus if he doesn't, or is limited.

It's a plus for the Under if Ja Morant can't play because of a right hand injury. Even if he does, though, I still like the Under.

The Lakers' 128-112 Game 1 victory in this series has some influence on why this total is too high in my view.

The Lakers shot 53 percent from the floor and 43 percent from 3-point range in the Game 1 victory. The teams combined to make 29 of 32 free throws for 91 percent.

The Grizzlies finished first in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers ranked 25th in 3-point shooting at 34.6 percent. LA got a huge scoring burst from role players Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves. They combined for 52 points while shooting 19 of 27 from the floor for 70 percent. I don't see a repeat of that in this Game 2.

Memphis should be applying maximum intensity and defensive pressure knowing a loss would send them to LA down 0-2 in the series.

The Lakers have been playing outstanding defense down the stretch. They've held their last four foes to an average of 106 points in regulation.

I had the Clippers plus 7 1/2 in Game 1 of this series expecting a huge performance from Kawhi Leonard. So I wasn't surprised when Leonard scored 38 in the Clippers' upset victory this past Sunday.

But now I'm going the other way for this Game 2 riding the Zig Zag theory. I don't see the Suns losing a second straight home game, which would put them in serious jeopardy for the series.

Kevin Durant also played well in that Game 1. The Suns are 8-1 with Durant in their lineup. They way outnumber the Paul George-less Clippers in star power. The Suns won't be taking the Clippers lightly in this must-win spot.

The Clippers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a victory.

The Nets don't have nearly the talent anymore that the 76ers have. But the Nets are pesky, spunky and will be going all out after losing, 121-101, to Philadelphia in Saturday's Game 1 playoff matchup.

That was just the fourth time in their last 21 games that the Nets lost by more than 10 points.

The 76ers made a franchise-record 21 3-pointers while hitting 48 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The 76ers dominated the offensive glass. Philadelphia ended up getting 19 more shots than Brooklyn. The Nets committed 19 turnovers.

I'm expecting adjustments and far less sloppy play from the Nets in this Game 2.