| Basketball Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 01-17-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
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Wisconsin is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The Badgers have a losing away mark. The spot isn't good either for Wisconsin. The Badgers are off a thrilling, 56-54, home win against 17th-ranked Maryland this past Tuesday, while Michigan State has had five days to think about its worst loss in three years, a 71-42 road defeat to Purude this past Sunday. The Spartans have covered 68 percent of their last 52 home games versus below .500 road opponents. They have won 11 straight against Wisconsin in East Lansing. Michigan State's best players - Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry - are all off their worst performance. They won't lack motivation. The Badgers can't match that being away from Madison.
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| 01-16-20 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 121-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
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The Suns aren't as good minus point guard Ricky Rubio. The combination of missing Rubio and having the Hawks shooting 49.5 percent caused Phoenix to lose, 123-110, to Atlanta on Tuesday. Rubio is back and I like Phoenix to cover this small number off that bad loss. The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the league, while the Knicks remain one of the worst. New York also could be without its leading scorer, Marcus Morris. He's missed the past five games due to a sore neck. The Knicks could be short-handed at point guard, too, which is one of their many areas of weakness. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS the past eight times on the road meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Suns also have covered seven of the past nine times at Madison Square Garden. |
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| 01-16-20 | Army v. Holy Cross UNDER 143 | 79-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
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Unusual circumstances, an early start time and both teams playing at a slower than perceived pace make going Under the right move for this matchup. Army is averaging fewer than 68 points per game ranking 271st in the country. Army also shoots poorly from 3-point range. The Under has cashed in four of Army's last five games. |
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| 01-15-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 74-59 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
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Stanford leads the Pac-12 in giving up the fewest points per game at 58.3, which ranks seventh nationally. The Under is 19-6-1 in Stanford's last 26 overall games. UCLA is giving up an average of 10 more points per game than the Cardinal. However, I see the Bruins clamping down on the defensive end after their coach, Mick Cronin, ripped their lack of defense. The Bruins also are in desperation mode having dropped five of their last six.
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| 01-15-20 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 220 | 100-106 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
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The Spurs' defense is way down this season ranking 26th. But San Antonio's offense has been coming around sparked by the hot shooting of DeMar DeRozan. San Antonio has produced 118 or more points in four of its last 5 games. The Heat are averaging 122 points in their last four games. This has been an Over series, too, with the high side cashing six of the last 8 times.
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| 01-14-20 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 54-56 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
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Wisconsin has a very strong home-court and is a better team with big man Micah Potter, an Ohio State transfer, settling in. Potter, who became eligible six games ago, scored a career-high 24 points with 13 rebound as the Badgers defeated then 20th-ranked Penn State, 58-49, on the road this past Saturday. Now the Badgers are in Madison where they are extremely tough. Big Ten home teams are a mind-boggling 32-5 in conference games this season for 86 percent! Consequently, Maryland is a weak road club. The Terrapins have lost their three true road games and are 1-5 ATS in their past six away contests. Maryland just lost by 18 points at Iowa three days ago.
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| 01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
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The Suns find themselves favored by more points than they have all season. Is it justified? Maybe by the oddsmaker's perspective, but not by mine. The Suns are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they've been favored this season. Their record at home is 8-14. They are 4-9-1 ATS during their last 14 home contests. Charlotte can't beat or usually hang with good teams. But the Hornets have 13 victories versus sub .500 opponents. They play them tough. Charlotte is 5-2 the past seven times meeting a foe with a losing record. Terry Rozier, the Hornets' key player, is hot averaging 27.4 points on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. The Hornets have proven themselves on the road, too, covering eight of the last 10 times when going against opponents with a below .500 home mark. Red-hot Utah blew Charlotte out in the Hornets' last road game. However, the Hornets upset the Mavericks in their road game before that one.
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| 01-12-20 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 42-71 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
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I'm going to ride Michigan State. The Spartans are playing well - eight straight wins - and match up well to Purdue. The Boilermakers have a tough frontcourt with big men Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams. But the Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and have the tough perimeter defense that Purdue needs to dent in order to set up its inside game. The Boilermakers, though, have been cold from the outside especially from long range missing 27 of their last 36 shots from 3-point range. Michigan State holds a backcourt edge led by point guard Cassius Winston, who is one of the best in the country. The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been 'dogs.
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| 01-11-20 | Mississippi State +8 v. LSU | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
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LSU sits tied for the lead in the SEC at 2-0 with victories against Tennessee and Arkansas. Mississippi State is 0-2 in the SEC with losses to Auburn and Alabama by an average of 16.5 points. So things should be easy for LSU, right? Not necessarily. The Tigers are going to get the desperate Bulldogs' best effort, which should be good enough to put them safely in this point spread range. The teams met once last year and LSU won by four points in overtime. A key for the Bulldogs is guard Tyson Carter, the team's second-leading scorer. Carter is a great free throw shooter, but has missed 22 of his last 27 shots from the floor in the last two games. Carter is due to shoot much better.
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| 01-11-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5 | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
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Toledo is superior to Western Michigan and in the ultimate stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. I'm expecting the Rockets to take their frustrations out on the Broncos. They have defeated Western Michigan the past four times, including whipping the Broncos by 19 points at home last March. Toledo is a much better offensive team than Western Michigan averaging nearly 10 points more per game. The Broncos are also weak defensively ranking 279th.
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| 01-11-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 146 | 82-77 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
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The teams met twice last season. The combined amont of points scored were 128 and 119. Now look at this total. The defensive stats for Arlington are misleading due to the schedule the Mavericks have played, which has included Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston and Nevada. Costa Carolina is turnover prone and not a great foul shooting team.
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| 01-10-20 | Bucks v. Kings OVER 224 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
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Death, taxes and the Bucks reaching triple-digits. Those are the givens in life. The Bucks have scored 100 or more points in 63 straight games. That's the longest triple-digit streak in 24 years. The question is how many points will Milwaukee get here? The Bucks have shot just 40 percent from the floor during their last two games producing only 104 and 107 points. I don't see the Bucks shooting this poorly for a third straight game. Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer is aware of the poor shooting and said the Bucks will be picking up the pace in this matchup, which is a strong indication for going Over. The Kings have been on a scoring spree averaging 117 points during their last four games. They play faster with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup and being 100 percent.
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| 01-10-20 | Pennsylvania -115 v. Princeton | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
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I like Penn in short revenge for a 78-64 loss to Princeton six days ago. The Quakers missed 20 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in that loss. The Quakers have covered their last four road games, while Princeton is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home contests. Penn played a tough non-conference schedule knocking off Alabama and Providence. I expect the combination of the Quakers being the more battled tested team, shooting much better from 3-point territory than they did in the first meeting and being more focused will lead to a victory.
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| 01-09-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State UNDER 141.5 | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
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Texas State hasn't scored more than 70 points during its last five games. The Bobcats, though, rank 81st in scoring defense and 56th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina has a high scoring average, but commits a lot of turnovers. This has been a low-scoring series. Not once since 2017 has a total exceeded 139 points and that's taking into account seven past meetings during this span. The teams combined to produce 126 points during each of their two games last season. |
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| 01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
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Luka Doncic had a rare off-game when the Mavericks last played the Nuggets. That was back in October at Denver. Yet the Mavericks still won, 109-106. Doncic has been putting up monster numbers. The Mavericks' firepower is bolstered with Tim Hardaway Jr. back from a hamstring injury. It's a plus if Kristpas Porzingis can play after missing the past four games with a knee injury. I still like the Mavericks regardless of Porzingis' status. The Nuggets aren't nearly as good on the road where they are 2-6-2 ATS when meeting a foe with a winning home mark. It's Denver's fifth consecutive away matchup and concludes its nine-day road trip. So there is a fatigue factor against them, too. Dallas is 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times when favored. The Mavericks also are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times hosting the Nuggets.
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| 01-08-20 | La Salle v. Massachusetts -3 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
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LaSalle is 10-4. UMass is 6-8. Yet the oddsmaker opened UMass a slight faovrite. Early market activity has been on the Minutemen. What does that say? It tells me UMass is the right side. The Minutemen have covered eight of their last nine home games. This isn't a fluke. UMass plays much better at home averaging 80.5 points and shooting 48 percent from the floor. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering six of the past eight in the series.
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| 01-07-20 | South Florida v. East Carolina +4 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
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South Florida is nothing special. But the Bulls are inflated road favorites here after defeating Connecticut by 15 points at home in their last game. The Bulls have not won a road game all season. East Carolina has the best player in Jayden Gardner and plays better at home. The Pirates have won their last four home games.
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| 01-06-20 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
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This spot sets up for the road favorite Nuggets. Denver is 1-2 on its current road trip, which concludes on Wednesday at Dallas. The Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing, 128-114, loss to the short-handed Wizards. Denver coach Michael Malone ripped his team following that humiliation. The Nuggets are far superior to the Hawks, who are the worst team in the NBA at 8-28. Denver shouldn't lack incentive against this bottom feeder especially since one of the Hawks' rare victories was achieved against the Nuggets in the first meeting back on Nov. 12. Atlanta is off a surprising, 116-111, home win against the Pacers this past Saturday. That was just the Hawks' second home win since Dec. 2. Atlanta is 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS in its past 13 games. The last time the Hawks won consecutive games was the first two games of the season. The Hawks are dealing with injuries with John Collins (back), Jabari Parker (throat) and Cam Reddish (wrist) all hurt.
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| 01-05-20 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
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I find this line too short. Miami is at least one level higher than Portland, has a strong home-court advantage and situational elements favor the Heat, too. Miami is 16-1 at home. That's the best home mark in the NBA. Portland is 7-12 on the road and has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. The Trail Blazers also are 0-5 ATS the last five times taking points. The Heat should be fired-up after suffering an embarrassing 20-point loss to Orlando two days. This marks Portland's third road game in five days. The Trail Blazers took advantage of a decimated Washington squad to beat the Wizards, 122-103, this past Friday. Before that victory, the Trail Blazers had lost five straight. The Trail Blazers are thin up front with big men Zach Collins and Skal Labissiere out. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams. Miami swept Portland last season winning the two games by an average of 9.5 points. The Heat are much improved this season while Portland has severely regressed.
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| 01-05-20 | Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne | 64-71 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
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The record shows 11-2. But I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I went against the Dukes last Sunday when they were 7-point road favorites against Marshall and was easily rewarded when Marshall won, 83-61. I'm going to fade the Dukes again this Sunday because the linesmaker still is valuing them too high again. Duquesne played an extremely soft non-conference schedule. Davidson didn't. The Wildcats have covered three of their last four, including upsetting Loyola of Chicago on the road.
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| 01-04-20 | Pistons v. Warriors +3 | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
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I expect the Warriors to give a strong effort at home after being embarrassed, 99-84, at home by the Timberwolves on Thursday. Golden State does have multiple injuries, but some of its promising young players are back healthy. Golden State has shown some resiliency, too, covering eight of the last 11 times following a loss. Still, the major basis of this handicap is a fade on the Pistons. They have multiple injuries, too, with Blake Griffin, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard banged-up. Detroit has lost and failed to cover in eight of its last nine games. The Pistons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road. Morale is bad with Andre Drummond being openly shopped as trade bait.
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| 01-04-20 | Jazz -4.5 v. Magic | 109-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
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Utah has been sailing below the radar. The Jazz are 9-1 in their last 10 games, 7-2 ATS. The Jazz had beaten the Magic 14 of the last 18 times, including 109-102, at home three weeks ago. The timing is good for Utah to continue its dominance. The rested Jazz catch the Magic off a big 105-85 win against in-state rival Miami. The Magic accomplished this without their best defender, Jonathan Isaac. He's out with a knee injury. Aaron Gordon returned to Orlando's lineup after being out with an Achilles injury. But Gordon's minutes may be limited since this is the second of a back-to-back game. The Magic usually fail when stepping up in class. The Jazz are a level higher than Orlando.
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| 01-04-20 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 132 | 50-85 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
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Oklahoma State ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage and 39th in scoring defense. Texas Tech is known for its stingy defense under coach Chris Beard, one of the best coaches in the country. But there is more than just two outstanding defenses going here that should make this go Under the total. Texas Tech has faced very few strong defensive teams.The Red Raiders have had a tough time going up against opponents who primarily play zone defense, which is the style Oklahoma State uses.
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| 01-03-20 | Pelicans +11 v. Lakers | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
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The Pelicans come in extremely well-rested having been idle the past four days. Brandon Ingram has become a star taking some of the sting of not having projected superstar rookie Zion Williamson. New Orleans is playing its best ball winning a season-best four games in a row. The Pelicans' average win margin in these games is 14.3 points and they've done it against strong competition defeating the Rockets, Pacers and Nuggets in their last three games. A major key in the Pelicans' turnaround has been defensive improvement. They've held five of their past seven opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Lakers are just 3-4 in their last seven games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times laying points. The Pelicans have strong incentive taking on the Lakers with Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart being former Lakers. The Pelicans played the Lakers tight in the first meeting, losing 114-110, at home on Nov. 27. New Orleans is playing much better now.
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| 01-02-20 | Thunder v. Spurs -126 | 109-103 | Loss | -126 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
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This has been the most disappointing season record-wise Gregg Popovich has had in his long tenure with the Spurs. Lately, though, the Spurs have show more life going 7-4. The Spurs defeated the Thunder, 121-112, at home back on Nov. 7 when they weren't playing nearly as well. The Thunder have failed to cover the last six times they've played at San Antonio. Oklahoma City is coming off a 1-point road win against the Raptors and a 5-point home win against the Mavericks. The Thunder are a season-best three games above .500. Oklahoma City isn't that good. This is the time to step in against them in this difficult road setting and in a crucial matchup for the Spurs. The Spurs are 14-18. Following this game, the Spurs play an away/home series against the Bucks and a road game versus the Celtics. They are going to be underdogs in each of those three contests. So this becomes a high priority game for the Spurs putting them in must-win mode.
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| 01-01-20 | Blazers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-117 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
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The Trail Blazers are in stop-the-pain mode after losing at home to the Suns, 122-116, this past Monday for their fourth consecutive loss. Portland is having a disappointing season, but remain a far superior team to the Knicks. That was proven when the Trail Blazers destroyed the Knicks, 115-87, three weeks ago. It was Portland's sixth straight win against New York. The Knicks couldn't stop the Trail Blazers' star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined for 58 points. New York is in big trouble again the backcourt against those two. The Knicks could be down to one healthy point guard, Elfrid Payton, as Frank Ntilikna (groin) and Dennis Smith Jr. (oblique) are both questionable. Carmelo Anthony should be stoked to go all out returning to Madison Square Garden having starred for the Knicks for seven seasons.
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| 12-31-19 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 212.5 | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
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These are two slow-paced, strong defensive clubs each trying to end two-game losing streaks. Throw in an early start time and a 6-1 history to the Under during their past seven meetings and you should have another lower-than-expected final score. Philadelphia yields the fourth-fewest points per game in the league. The 76ers also rate No. 1 in defensive rebounding. Indiana gives up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA and also is sixth in defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers may get starting point guard Malcolm Brogdon back from a hamstring injury. He's their leading scorer at 18.3 points, but also a strong defender. Ben Simmons is Brogdon's counterpart and he's also a very good defensive player. This should be an old-fashion, half-court, intense matchup with playoff-caliber defense.
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| 12-30-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Bulls | 123-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
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This spread is much lower than what it normally is when these two teams meet. The reason being Giannis Antetokounmpo could miss a third straight game. The Bucks beat the Hawks on the road and the Magic at home by an average of 18.5 points in their last two games, minus Antetokounmpo. I like Milwaukee here and will lock in now. If Antetokounmpo happens to play that would be a huge bonus. Milwaukee is the best team in basketball. One of the Bucks' major strengths is how deep they are. They rank No. 1 in scoring and in both offensive AND defensive field goal percentage. The Bulls rank 27th in shooting percentage. Chicao is 7-10 at home while the Bucks are 13-3 on the road. Milwaukee has covered the past seven times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Bucks have defeated their long-time division rival eight straight times, including by nine points at home and by 14 points in Chicago during the first two meetings this season. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls more when playing in Chicago winning the past seven times there by an average of 15.8 points. All of the victories at United Center during this span have been by 11 or more points.
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| 12-30-19 | Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
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Wright State and Northern Kentucky were the preseason picks to win the Horizon League with Green Bay in the top four. Green Bay played at Wright State this past Saturday and was leading by five points with less than five minutes left before losing, 90-84, but covering as 10-point underdogs. Now the Phoenix draw Northern Kentucky on the road. The oddsmaker is taking into account not only Northern Kentucky being at home, but also beating Green Bay five consecutive times. Half of those victories, though, were by six points or less. Northern Kentucky also has a pair of key injuries. Leading scorer and rebounder for the Norse Dantez Walton is out. Jalen Tate, the Norse's top assist guy and one of the best players in the Horizon League, isn't likely to play either. So Green Bay catches a huge break to be playing the Norse now. The Phoenix play fast and have been receiving solid guard play. They are averaging more than 82 points a game, which is eight points more per game than Northern Kentucky averages.
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| 12-29-19 | Duquesne v. Marshall +7 | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
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I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. The Dukes are 10-1, but have played a very weak schedule. They were exposed by UAB, 77-68, in their last game getting upset as nine-point favorites. The oddsmaker still is overrating the Dukes here in this non-conference, neutral site matchup being played in Cleveland. Marshall has received a boost from freshman guard Andrew Taylor, who joined the team this month. The Thundering Herd have won three of their last four games, averaging 86.2 points during this span.
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| 12-28-19 | Pistons v. Spurs -4 | Top | 109-136 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
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The Spurs could be the most inconsistent team in the NBA. They have been playing better lately, though, and are in a big home revenge spot. The Pistons embarrassed the Spurs, 132-98, four weeks ago in Detroit. I like Gregg Popovich in payback mode. The situation sets up for San Antonio, too. The Pistons are thin in the bakcourt with Reggie Jackson and now Luke Kennard out. Derrick Rose and Bruce Brown are less than 100 percent. Blake Griffin is batting aliments, too. The Spurs are off a loss to the Mavericks, while the Pistons just destroyed the Wizards, 132-102, this past Thursday. The Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS following a victory. Detroit also has been miserable as a road 'dog posting a 3-11-1 ATS mark the past 15 times in that role.
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| 12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
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It's not just two excellent defensive teams squaring off that point to an Under in this matchup. Both rank among the top seven teams in defensive efficiency. This is a division rivalry. It's a very early start time - noon East Coast time. And the game is being played Christmas Day. All those factors are pluses for the Under. So is the situation for Toronto. The Raptors are minus three key injured players - Pascal Siakam, who is their leading scorer at 25.1 points, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. The Raptors overcame a 30-point second-half deficit to stun the Mavericks this past Sunday. They then went into overtime against the Pacers on Monday. This almost is like a third game in three days with the early start instead of third game in four days. Look for the Raptors to slow things down because of their heavy fatigue factor. The Celtics have been playing at a slow pace ranking 27th in tempo during their last 10 games.
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| 12-23-19 | Spurs +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 145-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
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The Spurs had started to turn around their disappointing season going 5-3 with victories against the Clippers and Rockets until losing, 134-109, at home to the Clippers. That was an embarrassing loss. I see the Spurs recovering against the Grizzlies. Memphis is 5-3 in its last eight games. Do note, though, that four of those victories have been against the Warriors, Wizards, Suns and Kings. Those are all bad teams. The Spurs have revenge motivation for a 113-109 home loss to the Grizzlies last month plus the humiliation of falling to the Clippers this past Saturday. This is priced around pick. I want Gregg Popovich going for me.
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| 12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
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The Nuggets have won five in a row and LeBron James is probably going to miss his first game of the season due to a muscle strain in his back. Because of these factors the line is greatly reduced from what it normally would be with LA at home. I will lay the short number not just because of the value factor, but because of the spot and my belief the Lakers will step up big time here to prove they can win at home without James. Let's start with the Nuggets. Their five consecutive victories have all come at home. They are a different team on the road. Denver is 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in its past five away matchups with the lone winner coming against the pathetic Knicks. On to the Lakers. They are back from a road trip that concluded Thursday with a loss to the Bucks, the best team in basketball. The Lakers also lost to the Pacers before that game, perhaps looking ahead to the marquee matchup against the Bucks. Now the Lakers are home where they have covered 13 of the last 18 times. LA hasn't lost three games in a row all season. The Lakers are going to dig in hard here. Obviously it's a monster bonus if James somehow plays. But I am not anticipating that. I am anticipating Kyle Kuzma, their third-best player, to be back in action tonight. The Lakers still have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis. Look for prideful veterans Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo to spark a strong bench effort, too, after each of them played poorly versus the Bucks.
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| 12-22-19 | Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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Loyola is 8-4. Davidson is 5-5. But the records are misleading. Davidson has played the much tougher schedule losing to Auburn, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Marquette while also defeating Wilmington and Nevada. The Ramblers are off a satisfying home win against Vanderbilt from four days ago. Davidson last played 12 days ago. So the Wildcats should be well rested and prepared. Davidson's strength is its backcourt and limiting turnovers. Note that this is Christmas break now so Loyola's fan base is going to be down.
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| 12-21-19 | Northwestern v. DePaul -5 | 78-83 | Push | 0 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
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Northwestern is average at best. The question is how good is DePaul? The Blue Demons are much improved. DePaul is 11-1, including 7-1 at home and 7-2 ATS in lined games. The Blue Demons had a strong recruiting class and the breakout has been immediate. The Blue Demons have strong motivation in this city rivalry. Northwestern came from 15 points down to defeat the Blue Demons, 75-68, last season. DePaul has dropped the past four in this series. The time is right now for that streak to end.
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| 12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks +13 | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
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The Knicks have shown a pulse under new coach Mike Miller going 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But mainly this handicap is based on fading the Bucks due to the spot. Milwaukee just beat the Lakers at home on Thursday in the marquee matchup of the season. It was a highly satisfying win for the Bucks. Following this matchup, the Bucks fly right back home to host the hot Pacers on Sunday in a much more meaningful game. So focus. concentration and overconfidence could hamper the Bucks in trying to cover this large road number.
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| 12-21-19 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama OVER 145 | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
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Coastal Carolina has a top 20 offense averaging 82.1 points. The Chanticleers play fast and shouldn't be hurt by South Alabama's defense. The Jaguars rank 267th defensively, do not force many turnovers and are weak on the defensive boards. Coastal Carolina has a worst defense than South Alabama. The Jaguars average nearly 77 points a game. They should match the Chanticleers in keeping this an up-tempo game. The Over is 5-1-1 in South Alabama's last seven home games, while the Over has cashed in five of Coastal Carolina's last six road contests.
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| 12-20-19 | Grizzlies -108 v. Cavs | 107-114 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
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I understand this is bad versus bad. Only Cleveland is worse than Memphis. The Grizzlies have been playing better and I prefer their young talent over Cleveland's. The Cavaliers did win their last game, holding off the Hornets, 100-98, this past Wednesday. But that was just the Cavaliers' third win in their last 19 games. They have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 games and are 3-8-1 ATS during their past 12 home contests. Only once all season have the Cavaliers won two in a row. Memphis is 4-2 in its last six games and very well could be 5-1. The Grizzlies blew a 24-point second-half lead in a 126-122 loss to the Thunder on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have covered the last four times they've met a below .500 opponent. Memphis youngsters Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks are all playing well.
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| 12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
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At 10-16, the Spurs are off to their worst start under Gregg Popovich. Lately, though, the Spurs have shown life. They have won four of their last seven games, including defeating the Clippers and Rockets during this time frame. San Antonio should be 5-2 during this span with two victories against the Rockets. However, the Spurs blew a 25-point lead against Houston on Monday when they last played. The Spurs have had two days to deal with that loss and get psyched for this matchup. They draw Brooklyn coming off a 108-101 overtime road victory against New Orleans. The Spurs hold a frontcourt edge on the Nets with LaMarcus Aldridge and their guards have picked up their play. There also is a mental hurdle the Nets face here. San Antonio has owned the Nets at home beating them 16 times in a row! The Nets haven't won at San Antonio since 2002.
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| 12-18-19 | Celtics -120 v. Mavs | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
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Kudos to the Mavericks for ending the Bucks' 18-game win streak on Monday despite not having superstar Luka Doncic. The Mavericks achieved that distinction on the road. They are a much improved team. But they are not as good as Boston especially without Doncic, who remains out with an ankle injury. The Celtics are on a two-game losing streak with losses to the Pacers and 76ers. Boston has had five days to think about those defeats. The Celtics haven't lost three in a row all season. Expect Brad Stevens to have the rested Celtics super ready to square off against Dallas. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 times they've been on the road facing an above .500 home team.
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| 12-17-19 | Seattle University +16.5 v. Washington | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
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Seattle is 6-5 and plays in the Westen Conference. Washington is ranked 22nd in the nation and plays in the far more prestigious Pac-12 Conference. So this high point spread is understandable on the surface. But there is more than meets the eye here. Seattle is playing its best basketball winning four in a row. The Redhawks are senior-laden, better than their record, have more to prove in this crosstowon rivalry matchup and have a big time player in Terrell Brown, who leads the Western Conference in scoring at 20.9 points. The Huskies are not a huge scoring team averaging 73.2 points a game. That ranks eighth in the Pac-12. Turnovers have plagued Washington. The Huskies have lost the turnover battle in seven of their nine games. Their turnover average ranks 267th out of 350 Division I teams. Seattle has played Washington tough each of the past two seasons losing 70-62 last year and 89-84 in 2017. The Redhawks should hang in again this season.
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| 12-17-19 | Seattle University v. Washington UNDER 139 | 59-81 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
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Washington is a Top-25 team and it's not because of its scoring. The Huskies feature a tough zone defense under Mike Hopkins. It has made them a strong Under team. The Under has cashed in 17 of Washington's last 25 games. Seattle is playing excellent defense, too, giving up an average of 60.2 points in its last four games. This is a cross-town rivalry so the intensity factor should be high. Both teams are on long layoffs, too. The Redhawks last played 10 days ago. Washington hasn't been in action for nine days. So expect a rust factor.
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| 12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
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Gregg Popovich has been coaching the Spurs for 23 years. He's never had a season this bad. San Antonio is 10-15. The Spurs are even worse against the spread at 6-18-1 (25 percent), which is the worst ATS mark in the NBA. Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA. Yet when these teams last met two weeks ago in San Antonio, the Spurs won in double overtime, 135-133. The Rockets blew a 22-point lead in that game. That was also the game where the officials' mistakenly waved off James Harden's slam dunk basket. It was the most frustrating and controversial game of the season for the Rockets. Now Houston gets its chance for revenge. The Rockets not only are thirsty for payback, but they are off a surprising home loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. San Antonio is off an overtime victory against Phoenix also on Saturday. That game, though, was played in the high elevation of Mexico City. It was the fourth straight overtime game for the Spurs. So San Antonio could have a fatigue issue especially after playing Mexico City. The Spurs have failed to cover 17 of the last 21 times after a victory. The Rockets have a monster edge in the backcourt with James Harden and Russell Westbrook, while Clint Capela can hold his own in the frontcourt against the Spurs' big people.
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| 12-15-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. Pacific | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
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A pair of lower-league Northern California teams square off Sunday. Yes, Cal State-Northridge-Pacific is way below the radar screen, especially on an NFL Sunday. But there is enough value on the underdog to get involved with the Matadors. Pacific just nipped the Matadors, 79-77, last season. This year's matchup should be another close encounter. Each team averages 69 points. Pacific is a mid-sized favorite because it is home and has gaudy defensive numbers. There are reasons to believe this line is too high, though. The Tigers haven't played in more than a week. That's too long to be idle at this juncture of the season. Look for a rust factor. Pacific also is 2-7 ATS following a victory. Northridge played four days ago. The Matadors have covered five of their last six and are 4-0 ATS during their past four road games.
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| 12-14-19 | Nicholls State +19.5 v. West Virginia | 57-83 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
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The oddsmaker isn't giving Nicholls State enough respect. The Colonels are road-tested and have hung in against strong competition. Nicholls State took Illinois to overtime, fell by just just 10 points against ranked LSU, lost by five points each to Pittsburgh and Rhode Island. All of these contests were on the road. The Colonels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road matchups. West Virginia is coming off an, 84-53, home win against Austin Peay on Thursday. The Mountaineers are 5-13 ATS following a victory.
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| 12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
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Quietly and well below the radar screen, the Kings have been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 15 of their last 19 for 79 percent! The Knicks find themselves in a very rare situation - being in a letdown spot. New York halted a 10-game losing streak with a 124-122 road overtime victory against Golden State on Wednesday. The Knicks are 6-21 ATS following a spread cover. They haven't won consecutive games all season. The key here is are the Kings good enough to cover this high of a number? They haven't been this large of a favorite all season. I believe the Kings can given how well they are playing and the situation. Sacramento has won three in a row knocking off the Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder. Those teams are all considerably better than the Knicks with the Rockets and Mavericks rating among the best teams in the Western Conference. Marvin Bagley III is back for the Kings. He's their best big man. The Kings play their next four games on the road starting Sunday. So motivation shouldn't be a problem. New York is playing its third road game in four days. The Knicks rate with the Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors as one of the four worst teams in the NBA. Even after scoring 124 points against the Warriors, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Sacramento had no problem with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last month beating them, 113-92. It was the Kings' fourth win in a row against New York.
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| 12-12-19 | Mavs -5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
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First, note the venue. This game is being played in Mexico City. That's a plus for Dallas, which is much closer to Mexico than Detroit. The Mavericks also have several Spanish speaking players, including star point guard Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have been dominant away from home going 15-3-1 ATS (83 percent) in their last 19 road games. Dallas is at least one level, if not two levels, higher than Detroit. The Mavericks last played on Sunday. So they've had ample time to rest, prepare and stew over their last game, a home loss to the Kings that ended a five-game win streak. The Pistons have played a weaker schedule. They've met only three teams from the Western Conference, all of whom have losing records.
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| 12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
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The Lakers are among the three best teams in basketball. They are a sizzling 14-1 in their last 15 games and unbeaten away from Staples Center going 11-0. I rate the Lakers close to three levels higher than Orlando. The Magic have consistently failed to step up against elite competition going 1-9 versus above average teams. The Lakers should be focused and energized having last played on Sunday. The Magic have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. |
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| 12-11-19 | North Carolina-Asheville v. South Carolina State OVER 153 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
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Asheville is a good team to go Over because it averages 82.4 points a game, which ranks 21st in the country, but gives up nearly 75 points a game while ranking 351st in defensive field goal percentage. The Bulldogs play at a fast tempo, too. South Carolina State is better offensively than it's overall numbers show due to its schedule. SCS has played three strong defensive clubs. This has skewed its overall numbers. They should feast against a very weak Asheville defense.
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| 12-10-19 | Louisville v. Texas Tech UNDER 130.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
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This may seem like a low total, but it's not given who these teams are and where this game is being played. Texas Tech has a top defensive coach in Chris Beard. The Red Raiders rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, giving up more than 75 points only once in eight games. They also haven't met an opponent nearly the defensive caliber of Louisville. The Cardinals rank 15th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 57.6 and in the top-five in defensive efficiency giving up 0.853 points per possession. Louisville has held its last two opponents - Michigan and Pittsburgh - to an average of 44.5 points a game. Only once have the Cardinals permitted more than 62 points during their last eight games. Making things worse for Texas Tech is its leading scorer, freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He's missed the last three games - all Texas Tech losses. The Red Red Raiders have averaged 62.6 points in regulation during those three defeats. This game is at neutral site Madison Square Garden as part of the Jimmy V Classic tournament in New York. The Garden is known for being favorable to Unders because of the tough shooting backdrop, especially so for teams not use to playing there. |
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| 12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
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Toronto is in stop-the-pain mode on a season-long three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, have occurred to the Heat in overtime, Rockets and 76ers. Now the Raptors step way down in class taking on a lottery foe they have owned. Toronto has won won the past 10 meetings against the Bulls, including, 108-84, earlier this season at Chicago. It was the fifth straight time the Raptors have covered at the Bulls. The defending champions know how to get it done against weaker opponents. Toronto is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when facing below .500 teams. The Raptors may not have injured guard Fred VonVleet against the Bulls. He hurt his knee in Sunday's 110-104 loss to the 76ers. But starting point guard Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are back for Toronto. Toronto matches up well to the Bulls. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage while the Bulls are the second-worst shooting team in the league.The Bulls also played on Sunday and suffered a tough 110-105 overtime loss to the Heat on the road squandering a one-point lead in the final seconds. Rarely do the Bulls play well in back-to-back games.
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| 12-08-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3.5 | 108-96 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
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Portland is playing better than it did when it defeated Oklahoma City, 136-119, at home on Nov. 27 and defeated the Thunder, 102-99, on the road Oct. 30. The Trail Blazers were 4-1 in their last five games until falling to the Lakers at home, 136-113, this past Friday. No shame in that. I rank the Lakers as one of the two best teams in the NBA. Portland lost Rodney Hood, who was enjoying a strong season, for the year in that loss. Hood suffered a torn Achilles. I expect Portland to come back strong at home. Teams often rally and play well in the first game after losing a good player. The Trail Blazers have a strong history under Terry Stotts of playing well following a blowout loss, too. They are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times after suffering a double-digit defeat. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. The Thunder are 2-7 away from home with their lone road wins coming against the Pelicans and Warriors, who have a combined record of 11-36. The Thunder enter this matchup fat and happy after pulling off one of the more improbable victories of the season. The Thunder beat the Timberwolves in overtime at home on Friday. They forced overtime by scoring a basketball at the buzzer off a long pass after trailing by two points with 1.1 seconds left and Karl-Anthony Towns at the free throw line for Minnesota.
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| 12-07-19 | Illinois +11 v. Maryland | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
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Maryland is unbeaten and ranked No. 3 in the country. But matchup-wise and situationally I can see Illinois staying within single digits of the Terrapins. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to Miami after having won four in a row. The Illini are inconsistent, but they have talent. Illinois beat Maryland last season on the road and the Illini are better this season. Maryland is strong defensively. The Terrapins are vulnerable here, though, because they are not a great shooting team, are undersized in the middle and thus can be exploited by Illinois' talened 7-footer Kofi Cockburn, who averages 23 points, and have a bigger game on deck. The Terrapins are fat and happy opening 9-0 for the first time in 21 years. They face a much bigger challenge playing their first true road game against Penn State on Tuesday. Thus they could get caught peeking past Illinois.
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| 12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
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Miami is 8-0 at home this season. Going back to last season, the Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. Miami shoots 51.4 percent from the floor at home compared to 45.1 percent away. The Heat give up 17 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS the last 42 times it has been on the road facing an above .500 home foe. Not only is Miam vastly superior to Washington - which this point spread reflects - but it draws the Wizards being in a highly favorable situational spot. The line doesn't fully reflect that. Washington is off maybe its best game of the season, a 119-113 home win against the 76ers. The Wizards had lost three in a row prior to that victory. The Heat are off a disappointing, 112-93, road loss to the Celtics from Wednesday. Miami is 18-7-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Heat also are 14-2-1 ATS the past 17 times when going against a below .500 opponent. The Wizards are shorthanded in the middle with center Thomas Bryant sidelined with a foot injury. In addition, point guard Isaiah Thomas is dealing with a calf injury.
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| 12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
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You wouldn't know it from their Tuesday performance against the Clippers, but the Trail Blazers are back on track after multiple frontcourt injuries helped cause a rough 2-10 stretch last month. Portland had rebounded to win three in a row until getting blown out, 117-97, on the road by the Clippers last night. The Clippers are 13-1 at home and one of the five best teams in the NBA. The Kings are a likely lottery team again. They are missing their second-best scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and top big man, Marvin Bagley III. Both are injured and not expected to return to the lineup until later this month. In addition. Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore hamstring. He's the Kings' fourth-leading scorer and top reserve player. The Trail Blazers have fortified their All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum by taking a chance on Carmelo Anthony, who has played well. Center Hassan Whiteside is having a strong bounce back year, too, for the Trail Blazers after leaving Miami. The one positive to the Trail Blazers' loss to the Clippers last night was not a single Portland player logged more than 30 minutes. Portland had not played in three days prior to the loss to the Clippers. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Note, too, that Sacramento has lost during its last 11 visits to Portland.
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| 12-04-19 | Loyola Marymount +18.5 v. Colorado | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
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Colorado is ranked 20th in the latest Top 25 Associated Press poll. The Buffaloes, though, have been sloppy averaging 14 turnovers a game. Loyola Marymount forces 13.5 turnovers per game and shoots 50.7 percent from the floor, which ranks 13th-best in the nation. Those are some of the reasons I like the Lions to cover this margin. But the biggest facor is Colorado plays No. 2 ranked Kansas on Saturday. It's the first time in five years the Buffaloes are playing a Top-25 team while also being ranked in the Top-25. So the Buffaloes may not be fully focused. It could also mean the backdoor is left open for the Lions since Colorado doesn't want to totally tax itself with a such a monster matchup on the horizon.
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| 12-03-19 | UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
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Yes, home-court and revenge are worth something. Just not this much. The teams met three weeks ago and Texas El-Paso won by 15 points, 65-50. New Mexico State had trouble handling UTEP's press. The Aggies have played better since then. But the Miners also are playing well. They are 5-0 on the season and their bench strength just got a huge boost with Kaden Archie, a transfer from TCU, now eligible. The Miners won the first matchup despite Bryson Williams limited to just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Williams is the best player on the court averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. He still scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. UTEP has covered eight of its last nine nonconference games for 89 percent. |
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| 12-01-19 | Spurs +4 v. Pistons | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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The 7-13 Spurs probably are the most disappointing team in the NBA at this juncture. But unlike the Warriors, the Spurs still maintain All-Stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. I'm not ready to close the book on any team with that talent especially one coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs showed they aren't dead by haltiing the Clippers' seven-game win streak, 107-97, on Friday. The Clippers are a top-five team. That should give the Spurs a much needed jolt of confidence. This is San Antonio's lone road game during a seven-game stretch. The Rockets are up next for the Spurs - and that's a probable loss. So San Antonio should be focused for this matchup. It's a big step down from the Clippers. The Pistons are seven games below .500 and that's having played only one Western Conference opponent so far, the Timberwolves. Detroit has two stars, too, in Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. But I would take the rest of the Spurs' lineup against the Pistons. The Spurs hold a winning record versus sub .500 opponents and have covered seven of the last nine times versus Detroit.
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| 11-30-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Kings | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
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This line is short. Denver is far superior to Sacramento. The Nuggets also are healthy. The Kings are missing their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and best big man, Marvin Bagley III. The Nuggets enter this matchup well-rested and hot, winners of six in a row. Denver has been idle since Tuesday. The Kings are in a tougher situational spot even though they are the home team having just returned from a four-game East Coast trip. Denver is 5-1 on the road this season. One of those victories was against the Kings, 101-94, during the second week of the season when Fox was playing for Sacramento. The Nuggets won that matchup by seven points despite an off-game from their best player, Nikola Jokic, and making just 36.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Taking on the Kings always holds special meaning for Denver coach Michael Malone. He was fired by the Kings after coaching them for just two seasons. I regard Malone as one of the better coaches in the league. He has the Nuggets playing their finest defense ever, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in fewest points per game. The Nuggets have covered eight of the past 10 times against the Kings.
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| 11-30-19 | East Carolina v. James Madison OVER 153.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
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Pace and tempo are a big key in cashing an Over play. We have that with James Madison. The Dukes are running so much they lead the nation in shortest possession time. The result is the Over is 4-1-1 in James Madison's lined games this season. James Madison is coming off a 94-78 home loss to Coppin State. The Dukes were 9-point favorites in that game. The Over is 27-11 following a James Madison loss. This opening total takes into account East Carolina's poor shooting, especially from 3-point range. But the total should have opened higher because the Pirates haven't faced an up-tempo opponent the caliber of James Madison. Instead the Pirates have played tough defensive foes as Liberty, Appalacian State and Navy. The Pirates have better scorers than what their season statistics show.
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| 11-29-19 | Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
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The teams met just two weeks ago and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz, 107-106, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Jazz have huge revenge and the line this time around is lower. Mike Conley did not play well in his return to Memphis after being the Grizzlies' point guard for 12 years. Conley vows to be more focused and play better today. Utah made just 40.1 percent of its field goal attempts in that earlier loss to the Grizzlies. The Jazz are not only are anxious for this rematch, but ready to get back on the court after suffering an embarrassing, 121-102, road loss to the Pacers two days ago. The Jazz did get back star center Rudy Gobert in that game. He had been out two games with an ankle injury. The Grizzlies are in a major rebuild job. They've lost five in a row since upsetting the Jazz.
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| 11-27-19 | Knicks v. Raptors OVER 210 | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
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Just by the numbers this game should go Over. The Raptors have scored at least 113 points in seven of their last 10 games. They are ninth in the league in scoring and first in 3-point percentage. The Knicks are well below average in 3-point defense ranking 23rd. The Knicks have reached triple-digits in each of their last seven games, averaging 106 points during this span. But, wait, there is more. The Knicks spent their Tuesday practice working on increasing their tempo. New York coach David Fizdale wants the Knicks to play faster. The Knicks have gone Over 11 of the past 15 times (73 percent) when playing on two days rest. So with the Knicks looking to play more up-tempo the chances of this game flying Over have increased.
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| 11-27-19 | SE Missouri State v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 135.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
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Cal-State Fullerton has plyed four Division I foes this season. The Titans are averaging 57.2 points in those games. They didn't break 60 points in any of those games. It's not a big surprise considering the Titans no longer have their high-scoring backcourt due of Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman Jr. Those two combined to average more than 35 points a game last season. The Titans not only have to replace the scoring of Ahmad and Allman, but also the way they ran the offense. That's going to take time. Southeast Missouri State also has to replace several of its top scorers from last season. The Redhawks rank 209th in scoring at 71.2 points. That number is skewed, though, by the Redhawks having played two really bad defensive teams of the four opponents they have met. They aren't a good free throwing shooting team either. The Titans have been a big Under team under coach Dedrique Taylor. This has been especially so on neutral courts such as where this one is being played. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Titans' last 23 neutral site games for 74 percent.
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| 11-26-19 | Wizards +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
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The Wizards are a lottery team. But they are winners when it comes to being big underdogs. Washington is 6-0-1 ATS when taking more than five points this season. The Wizards also are 5-1-1 ATS during their last seven road contests and have covered five of the past six times when meeting the Nuggets. Washington is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 119 points. The Wizards should be pumped for this matchup off a bad home loss to Sacramento two days ago. This is the start of a four-game Western Conference swing for the Wizards that includes games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets are fat and happy going 3-0 on their current homestand with victories against the Suns, Celtics and Rockets. This is their fourth game in seven days. They won't play again until Saturday.
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| 11-25-19 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying the Raptors as a home 'dog to the 76ers. Philadelphia may emerge as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but the Raptors still are very dangerous at home even without Kawhi Leonard and injured Kyle Lowery. The 76ers know this better than any team. Toronto has defeated Philadelphia 13 straight times at home during the regular season going 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times hosting the 76ers. Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. The 76ers have lost five of their past six away games. Their only victory during this road span was against the lowly Cavaliers. There's a chance the Raptors get back injured forward Serge Ibaka, too. He's missed the last seven games with a sprained ankle.
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| 11-25-19 | Butler v. Missouri UNDER 126.5 | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
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The total is low here, but it's totally justified. Missouri ranks seventh in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, while Butler is rated 29th in defensive efficiency. Both teams play at a very slow pace especially Butler. Only five teams force more turnovers than Missouri. So the the Bulldogs will be especially careful about pushing pace. The Under has cashed in 13 of Butler's last 16 nonconference matchups. Note this game is being played in Kansas City so neither team is familiar with this neutral court setting, which is another plus for the Under.
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| 11-23-19 | Spurs -125 v. Knicks | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
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How low can the Spurs sink? Not this low. The Spurs have lost eight in a row, something they had never done during the Gregg Popovich era. San Antonio may miss out on a playoff spot in the tougher Western Conference, but the Spurs are not a bottom-feeder like the Knicks are. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge give the Spurs the two best players on the court. The Spurs' backcourt is weak, but so is New York's. The Knicks have failed to cover in 27 of their last 38 home games. The teams met opening night in San Antonio and the Spurs won, 120-111. |
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| 11-23-19 | Manhattan v. Elon +1 | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
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Far from the glare of the national spotlight is this matchup. Elon is at home and its record is misleading because the Phoenix have played far stronger competition than Manhattan. In its last three games, Elon has taken on Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. The Phoenix covered against both Michigan and North Carolina. The Jaspers have played far weaker competition and have failed to cover four of the last five times they've played in non-conference.
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| 11-22-19 | Rockets +4.5 v. Clippers | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
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Paul George is back for the Clippers. George and Kawhi Leonard are one of the few tandems that can match Houston's superstar backcourt duo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It's going to take time for George and Leonard to jell, though. Harden and Westbrook have had much more time together. They are in sync now. The result is Houston going 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. The Rockets defeated the Clippers just nine days ago, 103-92, laying 2 1/2 points. Harden burned Patrick Beverley for 47 points. Now look at the spread. It's too high to justify the Clippers being home and having George this time around.
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| 11-22-19 | Idaho State v. Santa Clara UNDER 139 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
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I don't see many points being scored in this one. Idaho State averages fewer than 68 points a game and is horrible from the foul line. Santa Clara is an excellent perimeter defensive club. The Broncos have held four of their five opponents to 63 points or fewer. The Under is 18-7-1 in the Broncos' past 26 home contests. Idaho State is an above average defensive team. The Bengals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They've gone Under in 21 of their last 31 non-conference games.
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| 11-22-19 | Fordham v. Nevada -5.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
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Don't be fooled by Fordham's 3-0 record and Nevada's 2-3 record. Fordham is terrible. The Rams have just played an easy schedule. Nevada is the superior team and has played vastly better competition with its losses occurring to Davidson, USC and Utah. Note this matchup is part of the eight-team Paradise Jam tournament taking place in the Virgin Islands. The Rams probaby are going to be the worst team in the Atlantic-10 and are the worst of the tournament teams here. The Rams were terrible last season and are down point guard Nick Honor, who led them in scoring last year and transferred to Clemson during the off-season. Nevada has the better shooters and athletes. The Rams have failed to cover 20 of their past 28 times in non-conference games.
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| 11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State UNDER 138.5 | 74-71 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
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My first look at neutral court games such as this one is toward the Under. This matchup is being played in the Bahamas. Neither team is up-tempo. Missouri Valley Conference teams usually are strong defensively. Indiana State fits that description. Duquesne is more about defense than offense under coach Keith Dambrot. This total opened too high.
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| 11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -5 | 64-57 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
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UNLV is much tougher at home and has played the stronger schedule. The Rebels lost to California and Kansas State both in overtime and also lost to UCLA. Texas State has played just one strong opponent, Baylor. The Bobcats lost that game, 75-63. The Bobcats are 0-2 on the road. UNLV got back to winning and covering defeating Abilene Christian, 72-58, at home on Monday.
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| 11-20-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
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Both teams are struggling. But with Blake Griffin back to team with Andre Drummond, the Pistons have the two best players on the court. This spot favors Detroit, too, on several counts. Not only do the Pistons have revenge for a 112-106 road loss to the Bulls from three weeks ago when they were without Griffin, but they have been idle since Friday. The Bulls, by contrast, are in action for the third time in five days. Chicago is just 2-5 at home. The Bulls are minus injured Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, their best big man, is off to a slow start shooting just 36.2 percent from the floor.
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| 11-18-19 | Pacers +4 v. Nets | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
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Indiana had won seven of eight games until losing on the road to the Rockets and at home to the Bucks in its last two games. Now the Pacers go back down in class to take on the Nets. Indiana has covered five of the past six times when taking on sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn hosted Indiana back on Oct. 30 and the Pacers won, 118-108. The season was just beginning back then and the Nets were 3-point favorites. The Nets haven't been a good team so far yet this spread is higher. This is a favorable situation for Indiana and the Nets have an underrated key injury with guard Caris LeVert out until next month due to a thumb injury. He might be Brooklyn's second best player behind Kyrie Irving. The Nets finished a five-game, nine-day road trip by beating the Bulls two nights ago. Irving sat out that game because of a sore shoulder. I assume he's going to play here. It's an unexpected bonus if he doesn't. I'm taking the number now because if word comes out later that Irving won't play the line is sure to drop. The Nets' concentration level could be down a notch in their first game back from their long road journey. The Pacers rank sixth defensively, the Nets 27th. Indiana is giving up 12 fewer points per game than the Nets. Center Myles Turner is back from an ankle injury and looked good in his last game. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is having a strong season on a string of seven straight double/doubles. Turner and Sabonis give the Pacers a frontcourt edge. Indiana is minus injured guard Malcolm Brogdon. That's a significant missing piece. However, the Nets' guard advantage is reduced with LeVert sidelined. The Pacers have covered in nine of their last 11 games against the Nets, including covering the last five times in Brooklyn.
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| 11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
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The Lakers had to laugh at Atlanta if they were watching any of the Hawks-Clippers Saturday night game. The Clippers won, 150-101. It was the Hawks' worst loss since moving to Atlanta from St. Louis. The Lakers can't help but take the Hawks for granted. Look for the Hawks, though, to play the Lakers tough in this matchup. Not only is there the embarrassment factor from Saturday night, but the Hawks also shouldn't feel the normal fatigue associated with playing on the second of consecutive nights. Only one Atlanta player reached the 30-minute level Saturday due to the blowout. The game also was played at Staples Center, an arena both the Clippers and Lakers use as their home-court. So there is no travel involved for the Hawks. Note these trends, too: The Hawks have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests and are 9-5 ATS versus above .500 foes.
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| 11-16-19 | St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -8.5 | 80-74 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
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St. Bonaventure can't shoot. The Bonnies are making just 35 percent from the floor and 23 percent from 3-point range. The result is they are averaging fewer than 60 points per game and are 0-3. I don't see St. Bonaventure ending its shooting woes against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 and ranked 32nd in the country in scoring defense holding opponents to 55.7 points a game. Note this game is being played in Toronto as part of the James Naismith Hall of Fame Classic. Rutgers is playing much better right now than St. Bonaventure. So I'll go ahead and ride the Scarlet Knights against the cold-shooting Bonnies.
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| 11-15-19 | Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 79-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
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Guess what? Gonzaga is going to be good again this season - real good. The Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the KenPom rankings and that high rating is totally justified. The Zags have reloaded. They are strong at every position with excellent depth. Each of their three games has been a blowout victory. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation in scoring per 100 possessions and also are No. 2 in field goal percentage. They are undoubtedly a top-five offense. Texas A&M has tuned-up well for Gonzaga meeting two weak foes, Northwestern State and Louisiana Monroe. The Aggies didn't come close to covering big spreads against those foes. Texas A&M ranks 66th in KenPom's rankings. The Bulldogs buried the Aggies, 94-71, last season and hold a huge talent edge again this season.
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| 11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
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The Spurs are in a rough patch right now with three straight losses, including a 129-114 road loss to the Timberwolves in their last game this past Wednesday. However, the Spurs still are superior to the Magic. The situation sets up for the Spurs here and there is splendid line value, too. The Timberwolves played great in beating San Antonio. It happens. Teams run into a hot-shooting foe who comes in with their "A" game. Minnesota is a very improved team, too. The Spurs are not the dominant serious title contender of years past. But they remain a quality team with the best coach in the league, Gregg Popovich. The Magic are getting respect from the oddsmaker based on their last game, which was a smashing, 112-97, home victory versus the 76ers. Note, though, the 76ers were playing their second road game in 48 hours and sat out Joel Embiid. The Magic had been idle the previous two days so the situation set up great for them. This game isn't an ideal spot for the Magic. The Spurs are in full stop-the-pain mode. Even with their high scoring effort against the 76ers, the Magic still rank last in scoring and second-to-last in field goal percentage.
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| 11-14-19 | Mavs -7 v. Knicks | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
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I want the Mavericks going for me in this rapid revenge spot. The Knicks stunned the Mavericks this past Friday upsetting Dallas, 106-102, as 11-point road underdogs. The Knicks made a stunning 14 of 28 shots from 3-point range. New York ranks last in the league in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. So that truly was a fluke shooting performance. Since that victory, the Knicks have lost to the Bulls and Cavaliers by an average of 19.5 points. New York is 2-9 on the season. The Mavericks last played on Monday, losing, 116-106, to the sizzling Celtics. Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.
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| 11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
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Washington is a lottery team. But that doesn't mean the Wizards lack talent. They are more than just the Bradley Beal show with promising youngsters Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans. The Wizards have a winning spread mark and are in an excellent situational spot here. Washington last played on Friday. The Wizards should be rested and motivated after being embarrassed at home by the Cavaliers in a 113-100 loss this past Friday. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken hand during the weekend. Hayward was playing at an All-Star level. Boston managed to defeat the Mavericks, 116-106, on Monday without Hayward. This will be the Celtics' second game without Hayward so their motivation may not be as high. Focus could be an issue, too, for Boston. The Celtics take off for a five-game West Coast swing following this matchup. Boston takes on Golden State Friday on national TV. The Celtics' depth, lessened with Hayward's injury, will be tested since this is Boston's fourth game in seven days. The Celtics haven't been good at home either from a point spread perspective going 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times. |
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| 11-12-19 | Lakers -135 v. Suns | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
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Kudos to the Suns on their unexpected 6-3 start. The Suns have been winning, too, despite Deandre Ayton being suspended. But the Lakers also have been winning with LeBron James putting up triple/double numbers. I like LA off a 113-104 home loss to the Raptors on Sunday. That ended LA's seven-game win streak. There's a chance Anthony Davis doesn't play because of a sore shoulder. There's also a possibility that point guard Rajon Rondo makes his season debut. I like the Lakers regardless of either player's status. The key for me is the Lakers' third-ranked defense and No. 3 ranking in 3-point defense. The Suns have been beating opponents with their 3-point marksmanship. I anticipate they are going to have problems hitting their perimeter shots against the Lakers, which they need to do without Ayton in the middle.
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| 11-12-19 | Miami-FL -1 v. UCF | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
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Sharp money has come on Miami and I agree. The Hurricanes should be ready for their first road game having already faced Louisville. The Hurricanes have the talent and ballhandlers to limit their mistakes. Central Florida was very good - last season. The Knights lost most of their team from a year ago retaining just three players. They didn't look good in their opening game, a 73-69 victory against Prairie View. The Knights didn't come close to covering as 16 1/2-point home favorites. Miami is catching Central Florida at a good time, very early in the season.
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| 11-09-19 | Pelicans -111 v. Hornets | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
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Charlotte has been a mild surprise so far splitting its first eight games. I consider the Hornets, though, one of the weakest teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the superior talent even without injured Zion Williamson. I rate Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball ahead of anyone on Charlotte's roster. New Orleans should be motivated after being embarrassed, 122-104, at home by the Raptors on Friday. The Hornets just defeated the Pacers and lost to the Celtics. They have the 76ers on deck Sunday in a bigger game. This is their lone non-conference matchup during this four-game span. The Pelicans average nearly 12 more points per game than the Hornets. Lack of defense is the killer for New Orleans. But the Hornets don't have enough scorers to take advantage of that weakness.
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| 11-09-19 | Idaho +12.5 v. UC Riverside | 51-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
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I'm expecting a letdown from Cal-Riverside. The Highlanders opened their season with a stunning 66-47 road win against Nebraska. Riverside was 15 1/2-point underdogs. In hindsight, though, the inexperienced Cornhuskers should not have been such a heavy favorite. I don't believe Riverside is that good. The Highlanders were 3-10 in non-league play last season with a point differential of minus 7.8 points. The Vandals have covered five of their last six games going back to last season. The Highlanders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
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| 11-08-19 | Illinois -7 v. Grand Canyon | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
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There is a huge talent gap between these two schools. Maybe the oddsmaker was swayed by Illinois having to go into overtime to dispatch Nicholls State, a 22 1/2-point 'dog, in its opener. Because this line is way short especially given the circumstances at Grand Canyon. The Antelopes lost, 82-73, at home to Division II opponent Davenport in their opener. Grand Canyon received bad news before that game that two of its best players, forward Oscar Frayer and guard Jaylen Fisher, would not be eligible until second semster because of academic troubles. This has really reduced Grand Canyon's depth as Antelopes coach Dan Majerle used just a seven-man rotation. Illinois shouldn't be nearly as tight at it was in its opener. The Illini have a strong guard tandem in Andres Feliz and Ayo Dosunmu and also a pair of promising big men in 6-foot-9 Giorgi Bezhanishvili and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn.
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| 11-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 122-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
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These teams met opening night and the Raptors won, 130-122, in overtime. There were 234 points scored in regulation. The total sailed Over a consensus closing total of 229 1/2. Now we have a much higher total in a revenge spot for the home Pelicans with both teams talking about playing better defense and having had first-hand experience against each other. I trust Nick Nurse to make solid adjustments to keep the Pelicans' scoring down. Nurse proved himself during the playoffs last season. The Raptors allow 108.7 points and rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. Nurse wasn't happy, though, with the Raptors' defense in their last game, a 124-120 home win against the Kings two nights ago. The Kings were hot from deep range tying a franchise-record with 20 3-pointers. The Pelicans are the Pelicans. They are a high-scoring team that doesn't play much defense. It is difficult to get involved going Under in their games. But New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry is talking about defensive improvement and said a way to do that is be more patient on offense and not play such a helter-skelter style. If the Pelicans do slow things down it would be huge for the Under. It takes a lot to go Over a total this high. There is enough evidence for me here to go Under.
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| 11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
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Even when they had Russell Westbrook and Paul George, the Thunder still couldn't cover when playing in San Antonio. The Spurs have covered the past five times hosting Oklahoma City. I like the Spurs here to make it six straight home covers. Oklahoma City is coming off a 102-94 home win against Orlando on Tuesday. The Magic are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they got cold down the stretch against the Thunder. Now the Thunder draw a different foe in a different setting both of which are much more difficult. The Spurs are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak having lost, 103-96, at home to the Lakers and 108-100 to the Hawks on the road on Tuesday. The Thunder has played only two road games the last occurring back on Oct. 28. Oklahoma City is 0-2 away from home with a five-point loss to the Jazz and four-point defeat to the Rockets.
San Antonio is the superior team, home and in a better situation trying to halt a mini-losing streak before it gets out of hand. |
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| 11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
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I don't know if this line will hold in the morning when bookmakers realize the Clippers are resting Kawhi Leonard. I believe the Bucks are the best team in the NBA. The Clippers don't have Paul George yet and with Leonard sitting out they are not as good as Milwaukee. So I will lock into the Bucks now. Leonard was leading the Clippers in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. Sparked by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were leading the NBA in scoring at 121.3 points per game.
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| 11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz -125 | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
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Utah is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. The Jazz have been idle since Sunday. It's the first time since the season began the Jazz have had a two-day break between games. They should be well prepared and motivated. The 76ers, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in five days. The 76ers have a strong starting lineup, but weak bench. Philadelphia does get back Joel Embiid following his two-game suspension. The 76ers really missed him when they lost, 114-109, to the Suns on Monday. The Jazz have maybe the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, to slow down Embiid.
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| 11-06-19 | Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
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Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset.
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| 11-05-19 | St. Mary's v. Wisconsin UNDER 129.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
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This is a very good opening game, especially if you like defense. Saint Mary's plays at a slow, deliberate tempo under coach Randy Bennett. The Gaels have ranked among the bottom-10 percent in average possession length during each of the last six seasons. Wisconsin finished fourth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings last season. There is going to be an adjustment period, too, for the Badgers on offense with Ethan Happ gone. He was the focal part of Wisconsin's offense last season. Note this matchup is being played at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. So both teams will be dealing with a completely different environment in a small setting. Keep in mind, too, the new rule where the 3-point line has been moved back to the international distance. That's going to reduce the number of 3-pointers made.
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| 11-05-19 | Magic +2.5 v. Thunder | 94-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
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It's easy to be down on Orlando. The Magic are the only NBA team yet to reach triple digits. They rank last in scoring and field goal percentage. Behind that headline, though, are the Magic ranking No. 2 defensively in the league holding foes to 98.2 points per game. Oklahoma City is way down from last season. Chris Paul is the Thunder's lone star and he's off to a slow start. The Thunder also could be without their best big man as center Steven Adams has missed the last two games with a knee injury. The Magic are way overdue to have a good shooting game. They have a decent perimeter shootier in Evan Fournier to go with strong inside players Aaron Gordon and All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has covered in six of its last seven trips to Oklahoma City.
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| 11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
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A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series.
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| 11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
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Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode.
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| 10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
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Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season.
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| 10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
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The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points. |
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| 10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
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Great play from center Karl-Anthony Towns. The continuity of fielding the same lineup from last season. A good vibe under 33-year-old head coach Ryan Saunders, son of the late coach Flip Saunders. These are all factors why the Timberwolves are off to a 2-0 start. I expect Minnesota to move that record to 3-0 today as they are not only playing well but in a great situational spot. Minnesota draws Miami at home after the Heat just upset the Bucks, 131-126 in overtime, at Milwaukee on Saturday. The Heat accomplished this without Jimmy Butler, who won't play today either. Obviously this is a monster letdown spot for the Heat.
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| 10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
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This line is too short. Both teams did play last night and won. The Raptors haven't fully developed their bench yet, but their seven-man rotation should not get fatigued this early into the season. Plus the Raptors had previously played last Tuesday when they opened the season. So they've had ample rest. Toronto is much the superior team. Even without Kawhi Leonard the Raptors are among the four top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are a borderline playoff team at best. Chicago lost to Charlotte in its first game. The Hornets could be the worst team in the NBA. Chicago then defeated Memphis, 110-102, last night in Memphis. So the Bulls won't be rested either flying in during the early morning hours. The Raptors have played the stronger competition going against New Orleans Boston last night. The Raptors lost, 112-106, to the Celtics on the road. Toronto is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing on zero rest. The Raptors have the guard play with Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet to take advantage of the Bulls' weak transition defense. Toronto dominated the Bulls last season winning all four games by an average of 19.2 points.
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| Basketball Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 01-17-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
| 01-16-20 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 121-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
| 01-16-20 | Army v. Holy Cross UNDER 143 | 79-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
| 01-15-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 74-59 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
| 01-15-20 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 220 | 100-106 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
| 01-14-20 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 54-56 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
| 01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
| 01-12-20 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 42-71 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
| 01-11-20 | Mississippi State +8 v. LSU | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
| 01-11-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5 | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
| 01-11-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 146 | 82-77 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
| 01-10-20 | Bucks v. Kings OVER 224 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
| 01-10-20 | Pennsylvania -115 v. Princeton | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
| 01-09-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State UNDER 141.5 | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
| 01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
| 01-08-20 | La Salle v. Massachusetts -3 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
| 01-07-20 | South Florida v. East Carolina +4 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
| 01-06-20 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
| 01-05-20 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
| 01-05-20 | Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne | 64-71 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
| 01-04-20 | Pistons v. Warriors +3 | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
| 01-04-20 | Jazz -4.5 v. Magic | 109-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
| 01-04-20 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 132 | 50-85 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
| 01-03-20 | Pelicans +11 v. Lakers | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
| 01-02-20 | Thunder v. Spurs -126 | 109-103 | Loss | -126 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
| 01-01-20 | Blazers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-117 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
| 12-31-19 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 212.5 | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
| 12-30-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Bulls | 123-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
| 12-30-19 | Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
| 12-29-19 | Duquesne v. Marshall +7 | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
| 12-28-19 | Pistons v. Spurs -4 | Top | 109-136 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
| 12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
| 12-23-19 | Spurs +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 145-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
| 12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
| 12-22-19 | Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
| 12-21-19 | Northwestern v. DePaul -5 | 78-83 | Push | 0 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
| 12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks +13 | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
| 12-21-19 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama OVER 145 | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
| 12-20-19 | Grizzlies -108 v. Cavs | 107-114 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
| 12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
| 12-18-19 | Celtics -120 v. Mavs | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
| 12-17-19 | Seattle University +16.5 v. Washington | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
| 12-17-19 | Seattle University v. Washington UNDER 139 | 59-81 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
| 12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
| 12-15-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. Pacific | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
| 12-14-19 | Nicholls State +19.5 v. West Virginia | 57-83 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
| 12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
| 12-12-19 | Mavs -5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
| 12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
| 12-11-19 | North Carolina-Asheville v. South Carolina State OVER 153 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
| 12-10-19 | Louisville v. Texas Tech UNDER 130.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
| 12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
| 12-08-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3.5 | 108-96 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
| 12-07-19 | Illinois +11 v. Maryland | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
| 12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
| 12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
| 12-04-19 | Loyola Marymount +18.5 v. Colorado | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
| 12-03-19 | UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
| 12-01-19 | Spurs +4 v. Pistons | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
| 11-30-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Kings | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
| 11-30-19 | East Carolina v. James Madison OVER 153.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
| 11-29-19 | Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
| 11-27-19 | Knicks v. Raptors OVER 210 | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
| 11-27-19 | SE Missouri State v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 135.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
| 11-26-19 | Wizards +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
| 11-25-19 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
| 11-25-19 | Butler v. Missouri UNDER 126.5 | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
| 11-23-19 | Spurs -125 v. Knicks | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
| 11-23-19 | Manhattan v. Elon +1 | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
| 11-22-19 | Rockets +4.5 v. Clippers | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
| 11-22-19 | Idaho State v. Santa Clara UNDER 139 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
| 11-22-19 | Fordham v. Nevada -5.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
| 11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State UNDER 138.5 | 74-71 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
| 11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -5 | 64-57 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
| 11-20-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
| 11-18-19 | Pacers +4 v. Nets | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
| 11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
| 11-16-19 | St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -8.5 | 80-74 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
| 11-15-19 | Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 79-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
| 11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
| 11-14-19 | Mavs -7 v. Knicks | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
| 11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
| 11-12-19 | Lakers -135 v. Suns | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
| 11-12-19 | Miami-FL -1 v. UCF | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
| 11-09-19 | Pelicans -111 v. Hornets | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
| 11-09-19 | Idaho +12.5 v. UC Riverside | 51-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
| 11-08-19 | Illinois -7 v. Grand Canyon | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
| 11-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 122-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
| 11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
| 11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
| 11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz -125 | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
| 11-06-19 | Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
| 11-05-19 | St. Mary's v. Wisconsin UNDER 129.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
| 11-05-19 | Magic +2.5 v. Thunder | 94-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
| 11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
| 11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
| 10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
| 10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
| 10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
| 10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
