Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. 

Michigan State has the better bench and defense. The Wolverines lack the size and depth to cover this big of a margin against this foe. 

The Spartans have covered 18 of their last 24 Big Ten games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus Michigan. 

The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games. 

The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense.

The Kings have scored at least 109 points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors are going to get their points, but DeMarcus Cousins is a bad matchup inside for Golden State and the Kings have also been getting point guard production.

The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73.

Look for Texas Arlington to get revenge especially being fired-up after getting upset by Coastal Carolina in its last game. The Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.

The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break.  The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA.  

St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. 

The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak.  Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul.  The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points.  The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them.  Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks  When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that.  Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks.  New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating.  It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January.  This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's.  The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards.   The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.     

Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games.

Minnesota can take advantage averaging 112.3 in its last six games. The Timberwolves have a pair of legitimate stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. 

The over has cashed in Orlando's past six road contests. 

The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games.

These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor.

The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series.

Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high.

This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory.

The flip side of the handicap is Kansas State has more experience and mental toughness. The Wildcats also have proven themselves in tough road settings while covering five of their past six road matchups. 

First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto.  Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. 

Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. 

Cornell is just 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing foes with a winning road mark. The Big Red lack Harvard's depth, which could prove telling here. 

I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland.  The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings.  So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. 

This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt.

Notre Dame has too much offense for Virginia especially from 3-point range ranking ninth in the country in 3-point accuracy. The Irish also shoot much better from the free throw line. In fact, Notre Dame is No. 1 in the nation in free throw percentage at 82.9 while Virginia is a below average 69.4 percent. 

This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under.

Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. 

It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. 

I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination. 

Cincinnati beat Tulane 92-56 earlier this season. The teams put up 172 points in their lone meeting last season. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Tulane has been an underdog. 

Cincinnati can win either by offense or defense. Against this particular opponent, I see the Bearcats winning with offense just like in the first meeting. 

I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013.

The Hooisers just lost OJ Anunoby for the season. That's a huge plus for the Spartans, who proved their road toughness by winning in overtime at Minnesota while also covering at Duke and only losing by five at Ohio State last week. 

The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them.

Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games.  LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season.  The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots.  

The total opened too high here. LaSalle hasn't broken 69 points the past four times playing Davidson. There hasn't been more than 146 points scored during the past four meetings between the two schools.

Not only is Davidson playing better defense this season, but its tempo is slower, too. That's a good under combination. The under has cashed 13 of the last 16 times Davidson has been a road underdog. 

San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team.

The Aztecs beat the Rebels by 15 at UNLV last season and then clobbered the Rebels, 92-56, in their final meeting. The Rebels could manage to average only 54 points versus the Aztecs last year and are worse this season. 

The Rebels are shooting only 36 percent from the field in their last five games. By contrast, opponents are hitting 48 percent of their field goals during this span. 

San Diego State has a front court edge with big man Malik Pope. Put it all together and this is a cheap price to lay with a much superior foe. 

I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3.  So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives.  Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days.  Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game.  The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty.  Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under.  

Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels.

This is the highest total for this series in a long time - and it's not justified.

The highest mark these teams have combined for during the past nine meetings was 140 points with the average final score being 125 points. I'd be surprised if this total got past 136. 

Not only are these two strong defensive teams, but each plays at a slow tempo. Both surrender less than 68 points per game. Georgia ranks 36th in field goal percentage defense. 

Both teams are rusty and playing in an unfamiliar surrounding and time zone as this game is in London. It's the first game in five days for the Pacers and Nuggets. Normally a team welcomes a couple of days rest this much into the season, but five days is way too much. 

Considering their huge backcourt advantage and domination in the series, it's not asking too much for Portland to defeat the Lakers. The Trail Blazers have accomplished the task nine straight times, including the past five times at Staples Center.  C.J. McCollum is playing his best ball averaging 31 points during his last eight games. Damian Lillard has been sharp since returning two games ago from an ankle injury. Swingman Allen Crabbe is coming off a career-high 30 points. Crabbe recorded that hitting 12 of 15 shots from the floor during the Trail Blazers' 125-124 overtime home loss to Detroit this past Sunday.  The Trail Blazers want to redeem themselves from that loss. If they lose here to the Lakers they likely are looking at a three-game losing streak with the defending world champion Cavaliers on deck Wednesday. Portland coach Terry Stotts said he considers this a crucial game.  The Lakers are a bit fat and happy with consecutive victories against a pair of likely lottery teams from the Eastern Conference, the Magic and Heat.  Portland just hosted the Lakers this past Thursday and won, 118-109. Lillard and McCollum combined to score 48 points and dish off 17 assists. 
 

The Pistons are averaging 112.6 points during their last three games. They certainly can take advantage of Portland's 28th-ranked defense.

However, the Pistons' defense is in poor form giving up an average of 117 points in their last two games. 

Portland has the offense to take advantage especially with Damian Lillard back at point guard and looking sharp in his return. Only six teams average more points per game than Portland. 

Look for the Jazz to make it five straight victories against the Timberwolves. Utah is rested and plays far better defense than Minnesota giving up an average of 10 fewer points per game than Minnesota.

The Timberwolves played last night at Washington. This is a stop-the-pain game for Utah, which has lost its last two games playing on the road against the Celtics and Raptors. The Jazz are at the Grizzlies on Sunday. This is Utah's chance to beat a much lesser foe. 

The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. 

It's a plus if Embiid plays here, but I like the 76ers even without him. 

Philly has covered five of its last seven road games. The Celtics are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Boston hosts New Orleans on Saturday so the backdoor could be open for the 76ers if the game should get out of hand, which I doubt happens. 

The 76ers actually have a winning spread and are playing well with two straight victories. Only twice in their last 14 games have the 76ers lost by more than 11 points. 

Both teams are well below average defensively and are fully rested having last been in action three days ago. That combination should produce a high octane, up-and-down game with a lot of scoring. 

Marshall has yet to lose at home this season. The Thundering Herd have always been tough at home covering 72 percent of their last 26 home contests. 

Marshall beat Old Dominion twice last season, including winning by 17 points at home on a short spread such as this one. The Monarchs have been having trouble shooting making less than 37 percent from the floor and just 61 percent from the free throw line. 

The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. 

 The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here.  Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games.  The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers.