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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-26-21	Hawks v. Thunder +5.5	Top	109-118	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
02-26-21	New Mexico State v. Tarleton St OVER 131		78-51	Loss	-110	15 h 17 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have had a hard time putting a total on this matchup. Tarlton has played a lot of non-division schools so its season numbers are skewed. Tarlton, for instance, held some school named SW Advetist to 26 points. Tarlton averages more than 76 points a game and hits more than 39 percent of its 3-point shots. New Mexico State has produced at least 65 points in each of its last six games.
02-26-21	UAB v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 145		64-57	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham has the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 59.1 points a game. That's bad news for San Antonio, who rely heavily on their backcourt for scoring. The Under is 6-1-1 in UAB's last eight road games. The Blazers, though, have suspect scoring. UAB's statistics are skewed by their last game when it scored 117 points against Rust College. In their previous four games, the Blazers couldn't break 64 points. San Antonio flashed defensive potential three games ago holding Florida International to 47 points.
02-26-21	Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3		58-43	Loss	-106	7 h 40 m	Show
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games.
02-26-21	Bowling Green +4 v. Akron		83-71	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games.
02-26-21	Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver UNDER 149		80-76	Loss	-110	13 h 4 m	Show
Omaha-Nebraska is averaging just 60 points in its last four games. Denver has misleading statistics.The Pioneers have played two overtime games this month with both teams scoring in the 80's during each matchup. If you count regulation only, Denver hasn't broken the 70-point barrier in six of its last eight games.
02-25-21	Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5	Top	67-59	Loss	-107	19 h 56 m	Show
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode.
02-25-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		92-129	Loss	-110	6 h 38 m	Show
The Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference winners of seven in a row. But I don't think they are that good minus Kevin Durant to keep getting away with laying inflated numbers. Brooklyn didn't play well in its last game two days, but was fortunate to have played the Kings, losers of eight consecutive games. Orlando should provide more of an obstacle for Brooklyn. The Magic have been playing well lately. They had won three in a row beating the Warriors, much improved Knicks and Pistons before losing to Detroit in a rematch during their last game this past Tuesday. Perhaps the Magic were looking ahead to this matchup. Orlando gives up seven fewer points per game than Brooklyn, which has allowed at least 117 points in four of its past six games. The Magic have improved since Evan Fournier returned to the lineup after being injured. He gives Orlando a perimeter threat to go with rugged inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Brooklyn is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as a home favorite. The Magic have covered in each of their last four visits to Brooklyn. They also have covered six of the last seven in the series.
02-25-21	Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Sacred Heart		82-69	Win	100	14 h 15 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court.
02-25-21	St Francis NY v. Merrimack UNDER 139		84-71	Loss	-110	13 h 26 m	Show
Merrimack just held Bryant, the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, to 76 points in its last game. That was nearly 10 points under Bryant's season average. If you discount that game, though, Merrimack is surrendering just 54.8 points per game during their past five contests. St. Francis of Brooklyn has gone Under in 10 of its last 14 road games. I see the Terriers struggling offensively here, too, dealing with the Warriors' zone defense and slow tempo. Merrimack ranks in the bottom-20 in offensive efficiency. The Warriors also are among the worst 20 teams in free throw percentage. They average fewer than 66 points a game. The Under has cashed in 20 of Merrimack's past 27 games. There were not more than 111 combined points scored in either of the team's two meetings last season.
02-24-21	Xavier v. Providence +1.5		68-83	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games.
02-24-21	Spurs v. Thunder +1		99-102	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon.
02-24-21	Wolves +4 v. Bulls		126-133	Loss	-106	8 h 55 m	Show
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored.
02-24-21	Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State OVER 154.5		68-83	Loss	-109	15 h 35 m	Show
The teams met on Jan. 20 and Nicholls State won, 92-83, for a total of 175 points scored. I don't see less scoring happening in the rematch here. Houston Baptist is a bottom-10 defense giving up 81.4 points a game. The Huskies have been even worse lately surrendering 83 points during their last three games. Nicholls State has scored at least 80 points in four of its past seven games. The Colonels should be able to get a number of easy inside baskets and layups off turnovers.
02-24-21	McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana	Top	96-91	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.
02-24-21	Warriors v. Pacers -120		111-107	Loss	-120	13 h 24 m	Show
Stephen Curry is having a monster season. He and his Warriors, though, can not overcome a huge fatigue factor while taking on a rested home Indiana club that caused the Warriors fits inside when the teams met last month. The Pacers won that game, 104-95, getting a combined 40 points and 26 rebounds from big men Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. This time around the Pacers draw the Warriors playing their fourth road matchup in six days and second in two nights after getting past the Knicks, 114-106, last night. The Warriors have covered just 23 percent of the time the past 23 times when playing without rest. Indiana hasn't played in a week. The Pacers used that time to rest and get in additional practice. Their offense has been humming averaging 120.5 points the past four games. Indiana has won three of its last four.
02-23-21	Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State	Top	57-62	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
02-23-21	St. John's v. Villanova UNDER 154		58-81	Win	100	14 h 5 m	Show
St. John's leads the Big East Conference in forcing turnovers at 17 per game. The Red Storm forced Villanova into a season-high 17 turnovers when they beat the Wildcats, 70-59, three weeks ago. The Red Storm was extremely physical in that game. I don't see them changing their defensive strategy this time around after it worked so well last time against the Wildcats. Villanova is coming off one of its best defensive games of the season setting new lows for defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage in a 68-60 victory against Connecticut this past Saturday. The Wildcats have allowed more than 74 points in regulation just once in 17 games this season.
02-23-21	Celtics -117 v. Mavs		107-110	Loss	-117	9 h 10 m	Show
The Celtics are coming off maybe their most frustrating loss of the season, blowing a 24-point second half lead in a 120-115 overtime loss to the Pelicans this past Sunday. Boston is far from in peak form. The Celtics desperately miss underrated injured guard Marcus Smart. But the Celtics have the coaching with Brad Stevens and firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker to bounce back in what shapes up as a character test for them. Boston usually is good in this role covering seven of the past nine times following a defeat. Dallas is in action for only the second time since Feb. 14. The Mavericks defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, at home last night. The Celtics are a step up for Dallas. The Mavericks' last eight games have been against mediocre-to-bad teams. The last time Dallas played a strong team was the Suns back on Feb. 1. The Mavericks are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS versus above average teams this season. They also are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
02-23-21	Kings +6.5 v. Nets		118-127	Loss	-108	9 h 13 m	Show
Fat and happy the Nets return to Brooklyn having completed an impressive road sweep. They won five games in nine days with the last coming this past Sunday against the Clippers in a tight and dramatic, 112-108, win. One of the Nets' victories during this road trip was 136-125 against the Kings eight days ago. This is Brooklyn's first home game in two weeks. Why should the Nets care about the Kings, who have lost seven in a row and who they just dismantled? They shouldn't and probably won't. It's a monster letdown spot for the Nets. The Kings have been dangerous in one role - road underdog. They are 23-9 ATS the last 32 times in that situation. Brooklyn also has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has been favored at home.
02-23-21	Pistons +3.5 v. Magic		105-93	Win	100	9 h 36 m	Show
No matter how bad their roster looks, or how bad their last game was, it can be a mistake to automatically assume the Pistons are always going to get blown out. The youthful Pistons have a certain resiliency to them. Since Jan. 28 they have pulled off upset victories against the Lakers, Nets, Celtics and Pelicans. Orlando just defeated Detroit, 105-96, two days ago at home. The major storyline was Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier combining to score 66 points. But there were three other takeaways from that nine-point Detroit loss that shouldn't be overlooked: No. 1. Detroit shot 37.4 percent from the floor. Detroit shoots 43.5 percent from the floor on the season. Orlando ranks 16th in defensive field goal percentage. No. 2. Orlando shot 29 free throws, eight more free throws than Detroit. The Magic also made 26 giving them a 90 percent free throw shooting percentage. The Magic shoot 78.8 percent from the foul line on the season. No. 3. Dennis Smith Jr. failed to adequately replace starting point guard Delon Wright, who is out for Detroit because of a groin strain. However, rookie Saben Lee stepped up and looked outstanding. This is what Pistons coach Dwane Casey said about Lee's performance: ''He's competitive, he's tough, he just sets the tone. The whole complexion of the game changed when he came in.'' The Pistons have displayed their competitiveness by covering seven of the past 10 times following a loss. They also had covered four straight versus the Magic until that last game.
02-23-21	Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan OVER 146		82-69	Win	100	13 h 0 m	Show
Bowling Green has its best scoring games on the road. The Falcons are averaging 83.3 points during their last six away contests. The Over is 22-10 in the Falcons' last 32 road games. The Falcons are facing an Eastern Michigan defense that allows 75 points per game and ranks in the bottom-20 in defensive field goal percentage. The Eagles got some of the rust off playing Kent State this past Saturday. Prior to that game, the Eagles last played on Jan. 26. The Over is 9-3 in Eastern Michigan's last 12 games. The Eagles are an excellent free throw shooting team. They should contribute their share of points as Bowling Green has permitted at least 76 points in five of its last seven games.
02-23-21	Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -125		69-53	Loss	-125	12 h 29 m	Show
I really like the job Mike Young is doing with Virginia Tech in his second season as the Hokies' head man. The Hokies are 9-1 at home and have knocked off four ranked teams, including eighth-ranked Virginia, 65-51, during their last home game back on Jan. 30. Virginia Tech holds big rebounding and defensive edges on Georgia Tech. The Hokies last played on Feb. 6. So that accounts for why I find this line opening so short. I don't believe that will matter, though.
02-23-21	Buffalo v. Northern Illinois OVER 143		102-74	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
Buffalo is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 81.4 points a game. The Bulls have produced 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Northern Illinois is 2-5 at home this season. The Over is 10-1 the last 11 times the Bulls have been on the road facing a foe with a sub .500 home record. The Huskies have a terrible defense ranking 288th. Their defensive rankings are even worse in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies have surrendered 78 or more points in three of their last four games. Their offense, though, has perked up lately. They are averaging 70 points during their past two games.
02-23-21	Akron +2.5 v. Ohio		73-90	Loss	-110	11 h 24 m	Show
The Zips give up nearly four points fewer per game than Ohio. Akron destroyed the Bobcats, 90-70, when they met Dec. 22. It was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings Akron has beaten Ohio. That was two months ago. But circumstances are even more in favor of Akron now. The Zips are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They trail Toledo by just one-half game for first place in the Mid-American Conference. Ohio last played three weeks ago. The Bobcats have been set back by a COVID-19 outbreak. This has cost them practice time not to mention important game experience. I don't see them being anywhere in peak form in their first game back. Ohio coach Jeff Boals even said this himself. The Zips have won five of their last six road games. The lone defeat during this span occurred to league-leader Toledo.
02-22-21	Blazers v. Suns UNDER 230	Top	100-132	Loss	-105	18 h 37 m	Show
Perception fails to meet reality here. The result is this sets up a solid Under play. Damian Lillard. Chris Paul. Devin Booker. All big stars. Paul is a likely Hall of Famer. The Trail Blazers are averaging 120.4 points in their last five games. The Suns are averaging 128 points in their last three games. So the oddsmaker has good reason to set this high of a total. But on much closer inspection, I find it too high. The Trail Blazers have played five straight below-average defensive teams. The Suns rank fourth in the league in scoring defense allowing 107.8 points. Phoenix has the third-best 3-point defense in the NBA so Lillard does not figure to have an easy time. Portland doesn't have a second consistent scorer with CJ McCollum out. Portland is a bottom-six defense. The Suns, however, are due for some severe offensive regression. They have made 54.1 percent of their 3-point shots (46-for-85) during their last two games. Phoenix's season average from beyond the arch is 37.7 percent, which ranks 11th. Portland has the 12th-best 3-point defense in the league. The Suns have put up their high-scoring totals the past three games going against below averages defenses - Grizzlies, Pelicans and Nets. The aging Paul is a half-court point guard. Because of him, the Suns play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Portland isn't up-tempo either.
02-22-21	Houston Baptist v. Northwestern State OVER 154.5		80-86	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
Some of the worst defenses in the country reside in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist and Northwest State can take its places at the head table because each school is a prime example of this. Houston Baptist ranks 339th in the country defensively yielding 81.1 points a game. The Huskies are capable offensively, though. They've reached 80 points in three of their last six games. The Huskies can hit their 3-point shots and are a good free throw shooting team. Northwest State permits 79.6 points a game, which ranks 333rd. The teams met early last month and Houston Baptist won, 99-93, in overtime. There were 168 points scored during regulation.
02-22-21	Eastern Kentucky -4 v. SE Missouri State		87-65	Win	100	10 h 21 m	Show
I want Eastern Kentucky in this rapid revenge spot and the line is reasonable enough to get involved. Eastern Kentucky went into this past Saturday's game against Southeast Missouri State 18-6 and riding a three-game win and covering streak while averaging 88.3 points during this span. The Redhawks entered the matchup 9-14 and 5 1/2-point underdogs. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 94, Eastern Kentucky 72. Huh? The Redhawks were on fire hitting 14 of 25 3-point shots, way above their 35 percent season average. The Redhawks average fewer than 69 points per game on the season. They are below average defensively and commit a lot of turnovers. Eastern Kentucky had an off-game. The Colonels were outshot 58.3 percent to 36.2 percent from the floor. The Colonels are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.5. I see them bouncing back in a big way here. Southeast Missouri State is 7-19-1 ATS the past 27 times following a spread cover. Eastern Kentucky has covered 16 of its last 22 road games.
02-21-21	Wolves v. Knicks -2.5	Top	99-103	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
Defense. Situation. Coaching. Everything adds up for the Knicks in this matchup. So I'm really surprised the line opened so short. Maybe it's because there's a perception the Knicks are still a bottom-feeder like the Timberwolves. They aren't. The Knicks have made tremendous strides under former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau. New York has become the best defensive team in the NBA ranking first in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks surrender 12 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the league with a 7-23 record. They rank in the bottom-six both offensively and defensively. They are minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell. The Timberwolves are short-handed in the backcourt with Russell and Jarrett Culver both out. Minnesota will be playing its fourth game in six days. The previous three games all were at home. The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 14 road contests. The Knicks have been idle since Wednesday when they lost as a road favorite against the Magic, 107-89. That loss kept New York from reaching .500. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, has had extra preparation time to figure out how to adequately replace injured center Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have won and covered five of their last seven home games. Obviously Thibodeau would like to beat the franchise that fired him midway through the 2018-19 season after he had led them to the playoffs the previous season. Minnesota hadn't made the postseason in 13 seasons before Thibodeau came along. The Knicks shouldn't lack motivation and focus. The stumbling Timberwolves already are in rebuild mode again.
02-21-21	South Florida v. Temple +1		83-76	Loss	-109	9 h 19 m	Show
Since returning from a month-long COVID-19 hiatus, South Florida has gone 0-3 SU and ATS losing to Central Florida, Houston and Tulane by a combined 36 points. This is just the Bulls' fourth game since Jan. 9. They have averaged just 63 points in their last three games. The Bulls have failed to reach 70 points in each of their last seven games. They are a bottom-20 free throw shooting team. Temple gives up fewer than 70 points a game. This is the Owls' first home game since Feb. 4. I think they're a bargain in this price range.
02-21-21	Rider v. Quinnipiac -145		68-93	Win	100	3 h 55 m	Show
The teams just met yesterday. It was no contest. Quinnipiac won, 80-64. It was Rider's first game since Jan. 23. Maybe the Broncos got some rust off. But I don't see them staying that close to the Bobcats, who rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Bobcats have scored at least 67 points in each of their last seven games. Rider is now 1-5 in its last six games.
02-20-21	Heat v. Lakers -3		96-94	Loss	-110	10 h 46 m	Show
The Lakers are coming off a 109-98 home loss to the Nets this past Thursday. The Lakers haven't lost two straight home games all season. I don't see the Heat pulling off the feat. Miami has failed to step up all season. In their last 11 games, the Heat have played nine games against the Wizards (twice), Hornets, Rockets, Kings (twice), Knicks (twice) and Hornets. The only time they played above .500 teams during this span were matchups against the Jazz and Clippers. The Jazz beat the Heat by 18 points in Utah and the Clippers defeated the Heat by seven points in LA. Note the Clippers were minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they knocked off the Heat. In the five games previous to their last 11 games, the Heat played the Clippers, Nuggets, Nets twice and Raptors. They went 0-5 in those tough matchups. Miami is 0-6 ATS the last six times it has gone against an above .500 opponent. Miami has gotten healthy. So I believe the Heat will start improving. But I don't think this is the spot for the Heat even with Anthony Davis out for LA.
02-20-21	Pepperdine v. Santa Clara UNDER 143.5		82-86	Loss	-107	11 h 50 m	Show
Pepperdine is showing defensive improvement. The Waves are giving up five fewer points per game since conference play began. They have allowed just 65.3 points during their last three games. Santa Clara ranks 300th in scoring at 65.7. The Broncos face the nation's fourth-best 3-point defense, too. Santa Clara, though, ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Pepperdine has averaged 68 points in its last two games. The Under has cashed in seven of Santa Clara's last eight home games for 88 percent. So I see this total being set too high.
02-20-21	Illinois v. Minnesota +5.5		94-63	Loss	-109	8 h 60 m	Show
No major conference team is more different at home compared to the road than Minnesota. The difference is insane. The Gophers are 0-8 away and 13-1 at home. Minnesota's average home victory is by around 13 points. Among the teams the Gophers have knocked off at home are Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Gophers have covered eight of their last nine games in Minnesota. This also is a circle-the-wagons game for the Gophers, who probably can't afford a loss here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota also has revenge for a 92-65 road loss to Illinois. The Illini haven't been nearly as effective on the road. They've lost to Rutgers and needed overtime to post victories against Indiana and Nebraska, two games ago where they were 14-point favorites.
02-20-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. Fairleigh Dickinson -1		71-76	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson has too much speed, quickness and backcourt edge for Mount St. Mary's. Fairleight Dickinson averages nearly 15 points more per game than Mount St. Mary's. The Knights can dent a strong Mount St. Mary's defense with excellent 3-point shooting. The Knights rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8 percent. Mount St. Mary's has been held under 68 points in eight of its last nine games.
02-20-21	New Hampshire +4 v. UMass Lowell		69-67	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering five of the last six times. I see that trend continuing here. New Hampshire gives up five fewer points per game than Lowell. The River Hawks have given up an average of 75.3 points in their last three games and are 8-18-1 ATS in their past 27 home games.
02-20-21	Loyola Maryland v. Lehigh +4.5		75-47	Loss	-110	8 h 5 m	Show
Lehigh hasn't played since Jan. 31. The Mountain Hawks are being penalized too severely on the line because of that. They would be above .500 if their six games against Bucknell and Navy were thrown out. Bucknell and Navy are a combined 15-6. Lehigh isn't in that class. But neither is Loyola Maryland. These are a pair of lower-tier Patriot League teams. Loyola Maryland is 2-7 on the season. The Greyhounds rank 287th defensively and 324th in 3-point defense. They have failed to cover their past four road games. The Greyhounds can't win close games either going 0-6 in games decided by four or fewer points.
02-20-21	Siena v. Niagara OVER 128		62-64	Loss	-110	8 h 46 m	Show
The combination of two below average offenses and long layoffs for each team have resulted in this very low total. Yes, neither team has played yet this month. But the oddsmaker has overcompensated for this in my view with too low of a total. The rust element also could factor defensively. Siena has three legitimate scoring threats led by Jaylen Pickett. The Saints have scored 74 or more points in 60 percent of their games. Niagara has averaged 73 points in its last three games. The Purple Eagles also have given up an average of 76.3 points in their past three games.
02-19-21	California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon	Top	61-71	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.
02-19-21	Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 231		132-114	Loss	-105	8 h 34 m	Show
This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Suns won the first one, 111-86, on Dec. 29. The total on that game was 221 1/2. There were 197 points scored. The Pelicans won the second meeting. 123-101, on Feb. 3. That total was 223 and just barely got Over with 224 points scored. Now look at the total for this game. I'm locking in at 231 1/2 - which is 7 1/2 points higher than what it was when the teams met 16 days ago. The oddsmaker has been influenced by recent scores. The Suns lost 128-124 to the Nets on Tuesday in their last game. The Pelicans are off a 126-124 loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies, 144-113, three days ago. So I get why the oddsmaker has raised the Over/Under on these teams. I just don't agree with this big of a jump. The Suns give up the eighth-fewest points in the NBA per game at 108. They are going to be extremely motivated to clamp down defensively for the entire game after losing their concentration and blowing a big lead against the Nets. Stan Van Gundy has been unable to get the Pelicans to play consistent defense. New Orleans, however, is a below average but not terrible defensive club ranking 23rd giving up 114.5 points per game. The Pelicans also should have incentive to improve their defense after their previous performance.
02-19-21	Cal-Riverside v. UC San Diego UNDER 136.5		81-75	Loss	-105	10 h 30 m	Show
Cal Riverside is a very strong defensive team ranking 10th in the nation surrendering just 61.1 points a game. San Diego is a weak team whose scoring statistics are skewed by a 101-point performance against Bethesda, a school that has no business playing Division I opponents. Even with that bogus bump in scoring, San Diego averages fewer than 70 points a game. San Diego ranks a respectable 104th defensively, though. San Diego has allowed just 68.3 points in its last three games. The Under is 15-7-1 in Riverside's last 23 games.
02-19-21	Southern Miss v. Florida International -2.5		85-72	Loss	-110	13 h 35 m	Show
Florida International isn't good. But at this price range, the Panthers are worth backing. Southern Mississippi has lost eight straight games going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 62 points during this losing streak. Florida International has scored more than 62 points in 19 of its 23 games. The Panthers have the best player on the court in Antonio Daye Jr. He gives the Panthers a huge backcourt advantage in this matchup.
02-19-21	Monmouth v. Iona OVER 149		86-91	Win	100	12 h 58 m	Show
This will be Iona's fourth game since going through a long layoff due to COVID-19. The Gaels are one of the better scoring teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but their defense has been bad during their return. Iona gave up an average of 72 points in two games against Manhattan, which is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country averaging 63.3 points. The Gaels also permitted 74 points to Quinnipiac, which is nearly seven points above the Bobcats' average. This doesn't bode well for Iona facing Monmouth, which averages 77.9 points and plays the fastest pace of any MAAC team. The Gaels should contribute their share of points towards the Over, too, as Mommouth ranks 241st in defensive scoring.
02-19-21	IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5		72-70	Loss	-113	12 h 14 m	Show
I consider this line short. Youngstown State is on a season-best five-game win streak. The Penguins are showing defensive improvement holding their last four opponents to 70 points or fewer. They are tough at home, too, going 8-3-1 ATS during their last 12 home contests. Youngstown State averages three points more per game than IUPUI and plays much better defense. The Jaguars rank 288th in scoring defense allowing 75.5 points a game. They are 327th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jaguars have failed to cover five of the last six times they've gone against an above .500 opponent.
02-18-21	St. Mary's v. Gonzaga OVER 143		65-87	Win	100	15 h 9 m	Show
It was a challenge for the oddsmaker to set a correct Over/Under on this matchup since St. Mary's is the 14th-best defensive team in the nation giving up 61.8 points while Gonzaga averages an NCAA Division I-best 93 points per game. In my view, the oddsmaker came up short on the correct total as I see a high-scoring game unlike the first meeting between the teams won by Gonzaga, 73-59, on Jan. 16 in California. St. Mary's coach Randy Bennett knows defense is not going to trump Gonzaga's high-scoring ways especially with this matchup being in Spokane, Wash. "You've got to generate some points against those guys because they're going to score," Bennett was quoted as saying about the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are going to have plenty of incentive, too, to keep their feet pressed to the gas. Family members are being allowed to attend Gonzaga home games for the first time this season. Gonzaga warmed up for this game by scoring 100 points in a 39-point victory at San Francisco last Saturday. St. Mary's had six games in a row postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. The Gaels got back into action this past Saturday losing, 60-58, at Pepperdine. So the Gaels should come in with plenty of energy and the rust off from having played a game.
02-18-21	Rutgers v. Michigan OVER 136		64-71	Loss	-114	16 h 41 m	Show
Michigan averages 78.9 points a game, 40th-best in the land. But there was some question just how potent the Wolverines could be when they played at Wisconsin this past Sunday against the defensive-minded Badgers. Michigan hadn't played since Jan. 22 because of COVID-19 issues. The Wolverines began slow, but they erased doubts scoring 40 points in the second half in a 67-59 victory. Now the Wolverines are home for the first time since Jan. 19 and the rust is off. I'm expecting big scoring production from Michigan. Rutgers' Big Ten defensive numbers look better than what they really are. The statistics are skewed because the Scarlet Knights held Northwestern to an average of 53 points in two games. Discounting Northwestern, these are the point totals the Scarlet Knights have yielded in their last five Big Ten road games - 79 to Iowa, 70 to Indiana, 75 to Penn State, 68 to Michigan State and 80 to Ohio State. So I project Michigan to score a lot of points here. Rutgers averages nearly 72 points a game so the Scarlet Knights can do their share in getting this total to go Over.
02-18-21	Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco OVER 135.5		68-63	Loss	-105	16 h 35 m	Show
Loyola Marymount enters this matchup off its highest three-game scoring stretch of the season. The Lions are averaging 77 points in their past three games. The Over has cashed in five of their last six games. Consequently, San Francisco is off its worst three-game defensive stretch of the season allowing 81 points a game. The Lions are 2-4 on the road this season. The Over is 15-5 the last 20 times the Dons have hosted an opponent with a losing away mark. The Dons also like to fire away from 3-point range. If they are hot look out. Loyola Marymount has below average 3-point defensive statistics.
02-18-21	Eastern Kentucky v. Tenn-Martin OVER 150.5		89-72	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
Eastern Kentucky is the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels play at break-neck speed and have proven to be a strong Over team in this type of situation. They are 19-7 to the Over during their past 26 road contests and the Over is 13-3-1 the past 17 times the Colonels have gone against a below .500 opponent. Tennessee-Martin is 7-13 and one of the lower teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. Lack of defense has been a major reason why the Skyhawks are so bad. They give up 77.3 points a game, which ranks 309th in the country. They also are 333rd in defensive field goal percentage. Eastern Kentucky should encounter little trouble putting up a high total. The Colonels, though, are well below average defensively giving up 73.7 points, which ranks 266th. Tennessee-Martin has averaged more than 70 points during its last three home games.
02-18-21	Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 236		110-96	Win	100	8 h 34 m	Show
Neither the Raptors nor the Bucks are playing defense nearly as well as last season. Toronto gave up the fewest points per game in the NBA last season, while Milwaukee surrendered the eighth-fewest. So I understand why the oddsmaker has set such a high total. The teams just met two days ago in Milwaukee and Toronto won, 124-113. The combined 237 points just grazed above the posted number of 235 1/2. Before Tuesday's game, the Under had cashed the past six times between the Raptors and Bucks. I believe the Under goes back to cashing again in this quick turnaround matchup. It's not like Toronto and Milwaukee suddenly have stopped playing defense. They both are in the top 12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Raptors were hot on Tuesday making 51 percent of their shots from the field and 40 percent of their 3-point shots. Toronto shoots 45.3 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc. The teams shot a combined 46 free throws, too. That's what it took for Tuesday's total to go Over. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four in a row. Their offense has been down averaging 112 points during the past three games. That's eight points fewer per game than what they average on the season. Point guard Jrue Holiday has been missed. The Bucks haven't had him the last five games due to COVID-19 protocols. Holiday is eligible to play today. If he does, he's likely to be rusty. I'm expecting an intense defensive effort by the Bucks to offset their offensive downtick. Toronto may not have point guard Kyle Lowery. He suffered an ankle injury during Tuesday's game. The Raptors did get back OG Anunoby after a 10-game absence. This is a plus for the Under. Anunoby is a versatile defender who has the ability to effectively cover a big man like Giannis Antetokounmpo, or a very good wing such as Khris Middleton.
02-18-21	Iowa v. Wisconsin	Top	77-62	Loss	-108	14 h 60 m	Show
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times. Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss.
02-17-21	Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 227.5	Top	113-118	Loss	-110	8 h 24 m	Show
Who is Shake Milton and why is he a key to this Under the total handicap? Milton is a reserve guard for the 76ers. He is instant offense. Milton averages 14 points, fourth-highest on the 76ers. He's missed the 76ers' last three games with a sprained ankle and won't play again today. Minus Milton, Philadelphia reserves averaged a meager 22 points a game the last three games. Houston is a defensive-minded club under Stephen Silas. The days of Mike D'Antoni are a distant memory. The Rockets are 23rd in scoring, but rank in the top nine in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 16-7-1 in Houston's past 24 games. The Rockets have little firepower left with Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker all dealing with injuries. The 76ers rank sixth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Joel Embiid is expected to play after missing the 76ers' Monday game against the Jazz because of back tightness. If Embiid has to miss a second straight game, Dwight Howard would replace him. That would be an unexpected bonus for the Under as Howard doesn't have an offensive game anymore and is a horrible free throw shooter. The 76ers have lost three in a row. The Rockets have dropped six straight. Expect a lot of defensive intensity as these teams try to halt their losing skids.
02-17-21	Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 137		71-64	Loss	-108	12 h 28 m	Show
There hasn't been a total this low on a Mercer game during the Bears' past dozen matchups. It's too low in my estimation. Mercer is the 39th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging more than 79 points per game. The Bears, however, give up 74.3 points a game, which ranks 272nd. They've permitted at least 70 points in 15 of their last 16 games. East Tennessee State averages 70 points a game.
02-17-21	Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5		70-74	Win	100	12 h 41 m	Show
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation.
02-16-21	Xavier v. St. John's UNDER 156	Top	84-93	Loss	-110	16 h 40 m	Show
The two teams met back on Jan. 6. Xavier defeated St. John's, 69-61, at home with the total falling Under by 20 points. Now a little more than a month later we have the same two teams and the same total. So what's changed? St. John's has gotten better. Xavier is trying to get the rust off after a long layoff due to COVID protocols. If anything, these changes favor another Under. This is just Xavier's second game since Jan. 30 and third since Jan. 10. The Musketeers must rely on their defense - their strength - because it's going to take time to regain any offensive continuity. Xavier ranks 62nd in the nation in scoring defense and 44th in defensive field goal percentage. The Musketeers did allow 80 points to Connecticut in their first game back from COVID. Prior to that game, however, the Musketeers had given up an average of 63 points to their three previous opponents (Butler, Providence and St. John's). Xavier has had St. John's number, too, beating the Red Storm 12 consecutive times. St. John's is much more offensively-inclined. But the Red Storm can step up defensively. Just ask Villanova. The Red Storm held the Wildcats to a season-low 59 points when the teams met 13 days ago. Villanova is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78.6 points. St. John's should have its defensive intensity sky high in trying to end their long losing streak to Xavier.
02-16-21	Nuggets v. Celtics -130		99-112	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
Right now the Celtics are just a so-so team. They are 13-13 and have lost 10 of their last 15 games, including four of their past five.The 8-17 Wizards beat the Celtics in Boston's last game two days ago. Highly underrated Marcus Smart is out for Boston with a calf injury. But I believe the frustrated Celtics show up here in this circle-the-wagons game for them. They draw the Nuggets, who are fat and happy winners of three in a row with the latest being a 17-point highly-satisfying home victory against the Lakers this past Sunday. Denver has been home the past 10 days. The Nuggets are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three road contests losing to the Kings, Lakers and Spurs by a combined 36 points. Boston won't have Smart again. But the Celtics have plenty of firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. Denver has its own superstars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But the Nuggets are in worse shape injury-wise than Boston. They've been missing Gary Harris, PJ Dozier, and Paul Millsap. Spark plug Will Barton didn't play against the Lakers for personal reasons. These sidelined players severely limit the Nuggets' depth and flexibility forcing them to rely on untested, inexperienced players.
02-16-21	St Francis NY v. Fairleigh Dickinson UNDER 161		83-75	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
These are two bad defenses. St. Francis gave up 80 points in its last game. Fairleigh Dickinson yielded 95 points in its past game. That may have influenced the oddsmaker because this total is set too high even given the low quality of the defenses. St. Francis has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during eight of its last 10 games. The Under is 9-3 in its last 12 road matchups. As for Fairleigh Dickinson, yes the Knights surrendered 95 points to Wagner in their last game. But in their previous three games, the Knights gave up an average of 69.3 points. That was against Wagner and two games versus Long Island, both of which have above average offenses.
02-16-21	Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's		61-39	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games.
02-15-21	Bulls +5.5 v. Pacers		120-112	Win	100	6 h 2 m	Show
It's a mistake to underestimate the Bulls on the road. During their last nine away games, the Bulls have beaten the Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets and Magic. Their five losses have come by the grand total of 15 points to the Lakers (by two points), to the Clippers (by three points), to the Thunder in overtime (by two points), to the Kings (by four points) and to the Magic (by four points). Chicago has covered the past six times it has been a road 'dog. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Pacers are returning to Indianapolis following a three-game road swing that ended this past Saturday night with a victory against the Hawks. This is the Pacers' first home game in eight days so their attention could be a bit off. Indiana is 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games since an 8-4 start. So the Pacers are far from peak form. Chicago does have injuries - Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are all likely to miss the game. Don't forget, though, the Pacers remain without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert.
02-15-21	Hampton v. Longwood OVER 135	Top	73-83	Win	100	14 h 8 m	Show
This Big South Conference matchup between a pair of below .500 teams, Hampton and Longwood, definitely is a below-the-radar game. I see it in a different way, though. I think it's an oddsmaker's mistake as far as setting the total too low. Hampton averages 69 points. The Pirates have scored 69 or more points in six of their last eight games. They commit the fewest turnovers per possession of any team in the Big South. The Pirates can take advantage of a Longwood defense that ranks 249th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Longwood is in action for just the third time since Jan. 30. The Lancers are getting back their scoring touch. They beat Gardner-Webb, 78-71, in their last game this past Friday. The 78 points tied the Lancers' highest-scoring performance during their past 15 games. The Lancers should have no trouble scoring in the 70's. Hampton gives up 73.6 points, which ranks 260th.
02-15-21	Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech		83-72	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record.
02-15-21	Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans		89-79	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record.
02-14-21	Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 217	Top	105-122	Loss	-105	13 h 22 m	Show
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are superstars. But what helps make them such mega-stars is their all-around games. They are more than scoring machines. Both are excellent defenders and a big reason why the Lakers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up 105.2 points a game. After five straight home games, the Lakers are on the road. The Under has won in 12 of the Lakers' 14 road games this season. Denver is an above average defensive team ranking 12th giving up 111.2 points. The Nuggets have held their last two opponents, Cleveland and Oklahoma City, to 95 points apiece. Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows his team must have defensive intensity to beat the Lakers. I expect the Nuggets to have that after the Lakers defeated them in the Western Conference Finals last season and in the first meeting this season, 114-93, in LA on Feb. 4. The Nuggets led the Lakers at halftime in their meeting 10 days ago. But the Lakers stepped up their game in the second half to win by 21 points. The combined 207 points went Under the posted total of 217 by 10 points. The Nuggets should have learned from that recent loss that they must play better transition defense while staying motivated the entire game. I don't look for the Lakers to attack up-tempo. This is their fifth game in nine days with three of their past four games going into overtime. What I am expecting is playoff-type defense and intensity from both teams in this nationally televised (ESPN) matchup.
02-14-21	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 142.5		65-71	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
I'm expecting Pittsburgh to tighten its defense against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 63.8 points in their last six games if you toss out an 82-point performance against Notre Dame. So their current numbers are a bit misleading. Georgia Tech has held eight of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 69 points. The teams met twice last season and there were a combined 137 and 130 points scored in those games.
02-13-21	Rockets -103 v. Knicks		99-121	Loss	-103	10 h 27 m	Show
The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four games in a row. Those losses have come to the Spurs, Hornets on the road, Pelicans on the road and Heat in which Houston blew a 13-point lead. I don't consider the Knicks better than any of those teams. However, the 12-15 Knicks definitely are improved under Tom Thibodeau. The Rockets aren't going to have Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker probably isn't going to play either. Still, the Rockets aren't lacking in talent with John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Knicks dominated inside in beating the Wizards, 109-91, on the road Friday night. The Wizards rested Bradley Beal. The 6-17 Wizards rank last defensively surrendering 120.3 points. The Knicks scoring 109 points isn't impressive. New York ranks last in scoring, in fact, at 102.7 points per game. Houston averages seven points more per game. Cousins' matchup became a lot easier when Knicks center Mitchell Robinson suffered a broken hand against Washington. That's a tough blow for the Knicks, who also are playing without rest here.
02-13-21	UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	88-72	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
02-13-21	TCU v. Texas UNDER 142		55-70	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
These two Big 12 Conference teams met twice last season. There were 126 points and 123 points, respectively, scored in those two matchups. I'm expecting the same kind of defensive intensity this time around, too. TCU averages under 70 points and is a terrible free throw shooting team. Texas gives up fewer than 69 points. The Longhorns may catch a break if Mike Miles, TCU's second-leading scorer at 14.8 points, has to miss a second straight game due to illness.
02-13-21	Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 139.5		59-78	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
Perhaps the oddsmaker is taking just the final score in Indiana's last three games into account because I find this total to be too high. The Hoosiers have played two overtime games during their last three matchups. If you go by regulation, the Hooisers are holding their last three foes to 62.3 points a game. Ohio State, like Indiana, gives up an average of 68 points per game. The Buckeyes have held four of their last six opponents to 67 points or fewer.
02-12-21	Detroit v. Cleveland State OVER 137.5	Top	89-83	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
This is an excellent Horizon League matchup. Detroit has won seven of its last eight games, while Cleveland State leads the Horizon League. I'm expecting far more offense than the oddsmaker is projecting. Detroit averages 75.8 points. That number goes up to 80.5 points if you take just the last six games. The Titans win with offense. They are a bad defensive team. The Titans also have a strong history of going Over in away games. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans' last 26 road matchups. Cleveland State is averaging 76.8 points in its last four games. The Vikings face a Detroit defense that ranks 277th in points allowed at 74.7, is 289th in defensive field goal percentage and 326th in 3-point defense. Opponents have dented the Titans' defense for 72 or more points in nine of the past 12 games. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last 10 home games, too.
02-12-21	Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls		125-106	Win	100	16 h 35 m	Show
Kudos to the Bulls for knocking off the hot Pelicans, 129-116, at home this past Wednesday. Chicago accomplished the feat by draining a franchise-best 25 3-pointers. Zach LaVine and Coby White led the way scoring a combined 76 points. I don't see the Bulls repeating their "A" level performance against the Clippers, an elite team that I rank three levels higher than Chicago. The question that needs to be answered is can the Clippers cover this mid-sized road number? They didn't cover an 8 1/2-point road spread in their last game, a 119-112 win against the Timberwolves two days ago. The Clippers started flat against Minnesota trailing by 13 points in the first half. I expect a better performance from the Clippers. LA also won't be taking Chicago lightly. The Bulls nearly upset the Clippers in the first meeting, losing 130-127 as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 10. The Bulls made an incredible 61 percent of their field goals in that game while the Clippers connected on 48.9 percent. Still, the Clippers still won by three points. Chicago is playing short-handed. Out are Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Otto Porter Jr. missed the Pelicans' game with a back injury. So he may not play either. LaVine and White will have to step up in a big way again. Paul George is out for the Clippers with a toe injury. However, LA did get back lockdown defender guard Patrick Beverley against the Timberwolves. White shoots just 40.3 percent from the field. LaVine is a great scorer, but he may be the worst defensive guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a high level for the Clippers. So whatever LaVine gets he's likely to give back even more. The Clippers rank fifth defensively and are ninth in 3-point defense. Chicago ranks 27th defensively. A motivated Clippers team should beat a short-handed Bulls team by double-digits.
02-12-21	Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6		66-64	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent.
02-12-21	UMass Lowell v. Albany UNDER 143		79-71	Loss	-112	8 h 27 m	Show
These are two below average offenses who I don't see reaching 70 points. UMass-Lowell averages 68.4 points and is a bad free throw shooting team. The River Hawks have been held under 70 points in more than half of their games. Albany is better defensively than on offense where it averages 68.4 points. The Great Danes have held 60 percent of their foes to under 71 points.
02-12-21	Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State		81-92	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61.
02-12-21	Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall		79-107	Loss	-110	7 h 23 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times.
02-11-21	Pacers -3 v. Pistons	Top	111-95	Win	100	18 h 40 m	Show
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite.
02-11-21	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5		63-56	Loss	-109	15 h 37 m	Show
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games.
02-11-21	Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State		93-77	Win	100	15 h 36 m	Show
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent.
02-11-21	Weber State v. Montana +1		67-80	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State.
02-11-21	Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's		60-66	Loss	-110	13 h 17 m	Show
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State.
02-11-21	Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford		80-64	Win	100	13 h 35 m	Show
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests.
02-11-21	Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner OVER 142.5		72-76	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Oddsmakers just give a quick glance to small conference matchups like this one before quickly throwing out a total based on season numbers. But on closer inspection - considering current form - this Over/Under has been set too low. Fairleigh Dickinson averages 75 points on the season. That number goes up to 82.1 points in regulation if you look at the Knights' last six games. Wagner ranks 263rd in the nation defensively yielding nearly 74 points a game. Wagner has scored at least 74 points in six of its last seven games. Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 326th allowing 78.9 points.
02-10-21	Bucks v. Suns +4.5	Top	124-125	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings.
02-10-21	Marquette v. Villanova OVER 139.5	Top	64-96	Win	100	16 h 23 m	Show
Marquette hosted Villanova back on Dec. 23. The results weren't pretty for the Golden Eagles. Villanova beat them, 85-68. That's a combined 153 points. The Wildcats didn't play again until Jan. 19 because of COVID-19 issues. This is their sixth game since their earlier meeting against Marquette. The Wildcats just defeated Georgetown, 84-74, at home this past Sunday. I believe the Wildcats are hitting their stride. They have balanced scoring with five players averaging in double figures. Marquette doesn't get many takeaways and has been hurt by giving up second-chance points. I believe Villanova has a high-scoring game just like in the first meeting. The Golden Eagles should hold up their end on the scoring ledger. They are averaging 70.3 points per game during their last three games. Villanova has permitted at least 68 points in six of its past seven games.
02-10-21	Southern Illinois v. Missouri State OVER 139.5		53-65	Loss	-110	14 h 11 m	Show
The oddsmaker is giving too much credence to the Missouri Valley Conference being a defensive league with this low of a total on this matchup. Southern Illinois has surrendered at least 68 points in nine straight games. The Salukis rank 277th in defensive field goal percentage. They rank 10th in the MVC in points per possession and are last in the conference in 3-point defensive percentage. Missouri State averages 74.3 points. The Bears are fourth in the conference in points per possession and have the top free throw percentage in the league at 76.5 percent. They also rate second in the conference in two-point range.
02-10-21	Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5		78-76	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
02-09-21	St. John's v. Butler OVER 138		73-76	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
I get that Butler is bad offensively, but I still think this total has been set too low. St. John's has won six in a row, reaching at least 70 points in each of those victories. Only once during this span have the Red Storm scored fewer than 74 points. Butler's defense is down this season. The Bulldogs rank 292nd in defensive field goal percentage. St. John's ranks 37th in scoring at 79.7 points. Look for Butler's offense to pick up now that transfer guard Bo Hodges is getting more comfortable. He became eligible this month and is averaging double figures giving the Bulldogs a much needed added scoring threat.
02-09-21	Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5		101-130	Loss	-110	8 h 30 m	Show
These teams just saw each other recently with the Rockets beating the Pelicans, 126-112, in New Orleans on Jan. 30. Both coaches stress defense so look for some tweaks and defensive adjustments this time around. There's also something else different. The Rockets had Christian Wood and Victor Oladpio in that victory. They led Houston to the win by combining to score 47 points while shooting a combined 18-for-27 from the field and 4 of 4 from the foul line. Neither is going to play today. Wood is out with an ankle injury and the Rockets have announced that Oladipo is going to be rested. The Rockets played last night, losing to Charlotte, 119-94, on the road. This marks Houston's third game in four days and second in two days so the Rockets aren't likely to push pace. Before surrendering 119 points to the Hornets, the Rockets had held their previous nine opponents to an average of 103.8 points. That would rank first in defense if computed during the entire season. New Orleans has been playing better defense. The Pelicans have held their last three foes to an average of 107.6 points a game, which would rank fifth if that were their average for the entire season.
02-09-21	Arkansas v. Kentucky OVER 142		81-80	Win	100	6 h 41 m	Show
Kentucky could be the most disappointing team in the country. But the Wildcats have a history of coming on during the second half of the season. They have too many good athletes to have such a low-scoring average. There are signs the Wildcats could be ready to break loose. Kentucky scored 71 points in an 11-point home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. The Volunteers rank sixth in the country giving up 59.6 points a game. Arkansas is not close to being in Tennessee's defensive class. The Razorbacks allow 69.4 points a game. Arkansas wins with its offense. The Razorbacks rank 12th in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points. They should have plenty of energy, too, having last played a week ago after last Saturday's game against Texas A&M was postponed.
02-09-21	Kent State v. Bowling Green		71-67	Loss	-110	6 h 39 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game.
02-08-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Suns	Top	113-119	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days.
02-08-21	Jackson State v. Southern UNDER 133		57-53	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
These teams are better defensively than offensively. Jackson State has a top-100 defense and is 36-14-1 to the Under the past 51 times versus opponents with a win percentage below .400. The Tigers have held their last three foes to an average of 60.3 points. Southern gave up 72 points to Grambling two days ago in its last game. However, the Jaguars had also yielded only 60.3 points per game during their six games prior to the Grambling game.
02-08-21	Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5	Top	61-79	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
02-08-21	Gardner-Webb v. USC Upstate UNDER 143.5		69-77	Loss	-110	13 h 4 m	Show
Kudos to Gardner-Webb for scoring 91 points in its last game, a 91-64 victory against Presbyterian from this past Friday. But I'm not going to overreact to that performance as prior to that Gardnder-Webb averaged just 61 points during its previous three games. Now Gardner-Webb draws South Carolina Upstate. The Spartans are bad on defense. But they also are horrible on offense averaging fewer than 67 points a game. They have failed to break the 69-point barrier in eight of their last 10 games. The Under has cashed in seven of the Spartans' last 10 games.
02-08-21	Quinnipiac v. Fairfield UNDER 133.5		70-77	Loss	-100	12 h 44 m	Show
These two Metro Atlantic Athletic foes just met Sunday and Quinnipiac won, 78-63. That total was lined at 129 1/2. Now we have a higher total, but the same two teams. Quinnipiac shot 57 percent from the floor in Sunday's game. That was a fluke for the Bobcats. Even with that performance factored in, they still rank 289th in scoring at 66.8 points a game and 293rd in field goal percentage at 41.3 percent. Fairfield is even worse. The Stags rank 341st in scoring at 60.4 points and are 330th in field goal percentage at 39.3 percent. Their game yesterday was their first since Jan. 16 because of COVID issues. The Stags figure to struggle again offensively not just because of rust, but also because Quinnipiac ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage.
02-07-21	Temple v. Wichita State UNDER 141.5		67-70	Win	100	12 h 42 m	Show
Temple averages less than 64 points. That average shrinks to 62.7 if you take the Owls' last four games. The Owls barely manage to average 60 points when on the road. Wichita State is a solid defensive team giving up 69 points per game. The Shockers have held their past six home opponents to 64 points per game. The Shockers should maintain their defensive intensity throughout the game even if the score becomes lopsided after Tulane came back from 21 points down to cut the Shockers' lead to six points during the final minute in Wichita State's last game, a 75-67 victory this past Wednesday. Temple's strength is its defense. The Owls have held five of their last six foes to fewer than 69 points a game. That's in line with their season average of holding opponents to 68.5 points per game.
02-06-21	Pistons +14 v. Lakers		129-135	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs. Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game. But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14. Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams.
02-06-21	Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans		109-118	Loss	-106	8 h 19 m	Show
Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him. The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite.
02-06-21	Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 223.5	Top	111-106	Win	100	11 h 37 m	Show
This total isn't high enough even if both teams weren't missing their top low-post scorers. San Antonio is averaging 110.8 pts in its last five games. The Spurs are a better defensive team than offensive team. They also are without LaMarcus Aldridge. That means big minutes for Jakob Proeltl, an Under bettor's delight - a shot-blocker with a limited offensive game and a terrible free throw shooter. The Rockets have become a defensive team-first under Stephen Silas. Houston ranks in the top-six in many of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Houston has surrendered just 103 points per game during its last eight games. The Rockets are without their leading scorer, Christian Wood. Not only was Wood averaging 22 points, but he was shooting 55.8 percent from the field. The team's met twice in mid-January. Both games went Under with a combined scoring total of 214 and 194 in those games.
02-06-21	Northwestern v. Purdue -7		70-75	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten.
02-06-21	Chattanooga v. East Tennessee State UNDER 138.5		67-65	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
UT-Chattanooga has stepped up defensively holding their last three foes to a respectable 68.3 points a game. East Tennessee State has a top-70 defense allowing fewer than 66 points per game. The Mocs haven't played too many defenses of this caliber. The Buccaneers' offensive numbers are inflated because of a recent 112-84 blowout victory against The Citadel. This is a Southern League matchup so the oddsmaker isn't doing a deep dive into this game. He's just set a total based on season statistics. In this case, the number is set too high.
02-06-21	Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		55-68	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games.