| Basketball Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 227 | 129-134 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
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It's easy to think offense with superstars Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Kyrie Irving on the court. But Oklahoma City and Boston also are strong defensively. The Thunder give up the 12th fewest points in the league. The Celtics rank No. 3 in scoring defense and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. The Celtics are giving up just 100.6 points per game in their last six games discounting a 115-point performance that Golden State put up against Boston. There were just 196 points scored during the first meeting, which the Celtics won, 101-95, back in late October. It was the fourth time in the last five in the series that the Under has cashed. Note this is a day game. That's usually a plus for an Under, too.
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| 02-03-19 | Xavier v. Creighton -6 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
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Creighton is undervalued given its tough Big East schedule. Xavier is not. The Musketeers are just bad this season especially on the road. Xavier is 1-5 SU and ATS in true road games this season. All of those road defeats have been by seven or more points. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests when going up against opponents who own a winning home record. The Bluejays average 82 points when playing at home. Xavier averages 68.1 points on the road. The Bluejays should be pumped, too, for this Sunday home game in a double revenge spot after Xavier won both meetings last season, including nipping Creighton by one point in Omaha.
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| 02-02-19 | Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
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Cal Poly is coming off a surpring 71-45 road win against UC Riverside two days ago. The Mustangs were 7-point 'dogs in that game. Cal Poly, though, is far from being a good team. The Mustangs were 1-9 going into that game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They also are a very bad road team going 6-15-2 ATS during their last 23 away matchups. Northridge is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Matadors defeated Cal Poly on the road earlier this season and have covered eight of the last 10 in the series.
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| 02-02-19 | Lakers v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
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No team can hang with the Warriors when Golden State is home and fully motivated. I see the Warriors playing with a great deal of intensity following a humbling nationally televised home defeat to the 76ers this past Thursday. That halted the Warriors' 11-game win streak and occurred right after Golden State had returned home following a 5-0 road sweep. It was a flat spot for the Warriors and the 76ers took advantage. Golden State has dominated this series defeating the Lakers in eight of the last nine meetings. However, the one loss during this stretch came on Christmas Day when the Lakers humiliated the Warriors, 127-101. That defeat still bothers the Warriors, who should be at full strength to face the Lakers. LA has LeBron James back, but could have a serious problem at point guard with Lonzo Ball out and Rajon Rondo questionable with an ankle injury. James had missed the previous 17 games with a groin injury until returning in the Lakers' last game, a 123-120 overtime win versus the Clippers on Thursday. James had to log 40 minutes in that victory and said his groin felt sore after the game. So if the Lakers fall way behind they may limit James' minutes not wanting to risk him getting reinjured. The Lakers showed they aren't much without James going 6-11 in his absence. The Lakers have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 visits to Oracle Arena.
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| 02-02-19 | Clippers +1.5 v. Pistons | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
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I'm usually attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation sets up. That's the case here. The Clippers begin their six-game road trip with this matchup having lost at home in their past two games. The Clippers have won and covered three of their last four road games and have revenge motivation for a 109-104 loss they suffered to Detroit as seven-point home favorites on Jan. 12. The Clippers can't afford to lose this game with their next game looming at Toronto on Sunday. Detroit is 9-21 in its last 30 games. The Pistons were life-and-death at home against a depleted Mavericks squad in their last game on Thursday. It took two free throws by Andre Drummond, a notoriously bad free throw shooter, with 3.3 seconds left to give the Pistons a 93-89 victory. Dallas was without its four best players in that game as Luka Doncic sat out with a sore ankle and DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. all were traded earlier that day.
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| 02-02-19 | Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 147.5 | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
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Hofstra has gone Over in its last four games. The Pride has scored 84, 85, 86 and 87 points in these games. They have scored 84 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. Northeastern has gone Over in six of its last eight home games. The Huskies have gone Over in five of their last six overall contests. They have scored 78 or more points in six of their last nine games.
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| 02-02-19 | San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
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St. Mary's has covered the past five times hosting San Francisco. The Gaels have covered their past five home games and will be highly motivated to get revenge for a road loss to the Dons earlier this season. San Francisco has a revenge game on tap - playing Gonzaga on Thursday. The Gaels have won each of their last seven home games by 15 or more points. The Gaels are back to playing top-notch defense holding three of their past five opponents to 60 points or fewer.
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| 02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
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The Hornets are the epitome of a good home team, bad road club. Charlotte is 17-8 at home, but just the opposite - 7-18 - in its away matchups. One of the Hornets' few road victories came just nine days ago when they defeated the Grizzlies, 118-107. It was the seventh time in the past eight meetings that Charlotte has covered against Memphis. I'm expecting that trend to continue today. Memphis has hoisted the white flag with losses in 16 of its last 18 games, including a 1-10 record in its last 11 games. The Grizzlies, to their credit, have been competitive in their last four games losing by three to the Kings at home, upsetting the Pacers at home, losing by just three to the Nuggets on the road and falling to the Timberwolves by two in overtime this past Wednesday at home. The last two defeats were especially brutal for the Grizzlies as they blew a 25-point lead against the Nuggets and were knocked off by the Timberwolves when Karl-Anthony Towns hit a 20-footer at the buzzer off an offensive rebound to give Minnesota the victory. I don't see the Grizzlies, with their low morale and trade rumors swirling about their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - getting up a third straight time even though they do have a revenge factor. The game is much more important for the Hornets, who currently hold the final playoff spots in the East. Charlotte is off a bad 126-94 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. This is the first game of a three-game homestand. Charlotte plays with a lot more confidence at home. The Hornets destroyed the Grizzlies, 140-79, at home last season when Memphis had a better team. I see this opening number clearly being short.
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| 02-01-19 | Princeton -124 v. Columbia | 55-43 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
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Princeton is in excellent form winning five in a row. I'm going to ride the Tigers here as they have an excellent track record in these type of spots going 6-1 ATS the past seven times meeting an opponent that has a losing won/lost record. The Tigers are 5-2 on the road with a winning ATS away record, too. Columbia is 2-7 ATS at home versus a foe with a winning away mark. Princeton has dominated this series, too, covering eight of the last nine times. |
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| 01-31-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 136.5 | 78-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
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Since losing star center Bol Bol for the season, Oregon has become a different team. The Ducks aren't who you think they are. They go motion a lot and eat up clock. The Under has cashed in three of their last four games. They have held four of their past five opponents to 61 points or fewer. Utah has picked up its defense. The Utes have not allowed any of their last five foes to score more than 70 points. Utah has had difficulty going against tight zone defenses. Oregon is playing far more zone since they no longer have rim protector Bol. These teams have a huge Under history, too, with 10 of the last 11 in the series going below the total.
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| 01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -125 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
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Dallas is coming off a 114-90 burial of the Knicks Wednesday night. That's impressive until you realize the Knicks are 10-40 with the fewest wins in the NBA and that was just the Mavericks' fifth road win in 25 away games this season. Detroit has a winning home record. The Pistons have short revenge for a 106-101 road loss suffered to Dallas this past Friday. This is the second of a four-game homestand for the Pistons. They lost to the Bucks in their last game. No shame in that. But the Pistons host the Clippers and Nuggets in their next two games. So this is the easiest one. It's a game the prideful Dwane Casey doesn't want to lose. Casey was an assistant coach for the Mavericks before he became the Raptors head coach previous to taking over the Pistons this season. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond give the Pistons the two best players in the frontcourt.
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| 01-31-19 | Wofford v. Mercer +7.5 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
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Wofford is in a flat spot coming off a three-game home sweep where it won two of those games in the final seconds. Despite those victories, the Terriers still have failed to cover in their last four Southern Conference games. Mercer is a bad road team, but good at home going 7-2. The Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home contests. The Bears hung tough at Wofford in the first meeting losing, 78-74, as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 5.
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| 01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers -114 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
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Utah is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Impressive, right? On closer examination not quite. The Jazz have compiled that record against bad teams: sweeping the Timberwolves in a home-and-road series and winning home games against the Magic, LeBron James-less Lakers, Bulls, Pistons and Cavaliers. The Jazz's lone loss during this span happened to be against the Trail Blazers in Salt Lake City. The Trail Blazers defeated Utah, 109-104, as five-point road 'dogs despite a huge discrepancy in free throws. Portland was 11-for-15 from the foul line in that game, while Utah sank 25 of 31 free throws. Portland is very strong at home going 21-7 SU, 18-10 ATS. The Trail Blazers have been pointing to this matchup, too, having been idle since Saturday.
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| 01-30-19 | Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
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I want Fresno State going for me after the Bulldogs were upset, 74-65, as 6-point road favorites at Colorado State in their last game. The Bulldogs have not lost two games in a row all season. Wyoming is 1-6 in the Mountain West having lost six of its last seven games. Wyoming has been hard hit by injuries and lacks the scoring to keep up with Fresno State. The Cowboys average just 65.6 points a game, which ranks 323rd in the nation. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS the past eight times facing a foe with a losing home record. The Cowboys have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. They lack the manpower and experience to cope with what should be a fired-up and mad Bulldogs squad.
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| 01-30-19 | Nuggets -8 v. Pelicans | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
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It is a terrible scheduling break for the Pelicans that they have to play today after stunning the Rockets on the road Tuesday despite missing a number of key players, including Anthony Davis. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS when playing on zero rest. I can't see the Pelicans putting forth another great effort on such short notice and being down so many important contributors. Denver will be the more rested team already being in New Orleans following its 95-92 road win against Memphis on Monday. The Nuggets are 34-15, the second-best record in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are 23-28. Denver has won 13 of its last 17 games. The Nuggets have won by 16 or more points in four of their last six games blowing out the 76ers, Bulls, Cavaliers and Suns during this span. They are certainly capable of crushing the sub .500 Pelicans, too. It's not just superstar Davis who the Pelicans are missing. They also are going to be without Julius Randle, their third-leading scorer, and Nikola Mirotic. Elfrid Payton may not play either. If that's the case, which it was last night, the Pelcians will be down their best player, third-best player, fourth-best player and sixth-best player. The Nuggets won't be taking the Pelicans for granted like the Rockets did either. Denver will be focused being on the road and fully aware of what the Pelicans accomplished last night at Houston.
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| 01-29-19 | Bucks -6 v. Pistons | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
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The Bucks opened their current five-game road trip with a 118-112 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Milwaukee has yet to lose two consecutive games all season. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times following a defeat. The Bucks have won their next game after a loss by an average of 14.8 points. The Pistons are 2-3 in their last five games, averaging just 97 points during this span. The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 117.3. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are having tremendous years for Detroit. But the Pistons are getting little from the rest of the players. They have a weak bench made weaker if backup veteran point guard Ish Smith has to miss a fifth straight game due to a groin injury. Detroit is just 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times it has stepped up to face an opponent with a win percentage above .600. The Bucks have owned the Pistons this season winning all three meetings with the average victory margin being 16 points. Big man Brook Lopez has come on making the Bucks extremely dangerous. Lopez's hot shooting from outside has helped free things up for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Unlike the Pistons, the Bucks have a deep bench. Lopez scored 25 points - hitting seven 3-pointers - when the teams last met on New Year's Day with the Bucks winning, 121-98, at home.
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| 01-29-19 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +9 | Top | 92-70 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
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Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
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| 01-28-19 | Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma | 77-47 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
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Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset. Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners. Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers. The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5. Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners. The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games. |
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| 01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 132-100 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
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The Pacers rank just 21st in scoring - and that was having their leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, and his 18.8 average per game. This will be the Pacers' second game without their top player, who is lost for the season with a knee injury. Golden State is full of superstars, but the Warriors also have the sixth-best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA. Indiana gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA at 103.2. Only once in their last seven games have the Pacers surrendered more than 106 points. Myles Turner is the top shot blocker in the league. So the Warriors don't figure to get easy baskets. The Pacers are sure to try to control tempo with a slowdown, halfcourt style. The Warriors may not be in track meet mood either since this is their third road game in five days. The Warriors are in transition, too, working DeMarcus Cousins into their offense.
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| 01-27-19 | Bucks v. Thunder -113 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
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Milwaukee owns the best record in the NBA at 35-12. That record is somewhat deceiving, though, because the Bucks are 22-4 at home and a more mortal 13-8 on the road with a 10-9-2 away point spread mark. This is the first of a five-game road swing for Milwaukee. The Bucks have been home for a week. Their previous three road matchups were against the Magic, Grizzlies and Hawks. Those three teams are a combined 37 games below .500. I see the Bucks encountering some cultural and road shock playing at always tough Chesapeake Energy Arena, where they have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 visits. Oklahoma City is tough again at home with a 16-7 mark. The Thunder have won their last four games, averaging 122.3 points during this span.
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| 01-27-19 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 231 | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
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This isn't an ideal spot for an Over with this being an early start time for two West Coast teams. It's the Kings' last game of a six-game road trip and the Clippers' first game back following a four-game road trip. The Kings have gone Under in their last 10 games, a below the radar trend. The Under is 8-1 in the Clippers' last 9 games. |
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| 01-26-19 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
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It is easy to think offense with all the superstars involved in the Warriors-Celtics matchup. But these teams also are strong defensively. The Celtics rank second in defensive field goal percentage and surrender the fifth-fewest points per game. Only five teams have a better defensive field goal percentage than the Warriors. This should be an intense matchup - just like last season. The Celtics defeated the Warriors, 92-88, when they last hosted them in November of last season. That was the Warriors' fifth-lowest point total of the season. Golden State forced the Celtics into shooting a season-worst 32.9 percent from the floor in that game. Golden State won the rematch at home, 109-105, last January. It was the fifth straight time the Under has cashed in the series. The Warriors are putting up high scoring marks. But their last four games all were against bottom-10 defenses, including two of the worst defenses in the NBA, the Wizards and Pelicans. |
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| 01-26-19 | Utah v. California UNDER 146 | 82-64 | Push | 0 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
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Utah has been playing strong defense. The Utes have held their last four foes to 70 points or fewer. California struggles offensively. The Golden Bears haven't reached 60 points during their last three games. They rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring and field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in four of the Golden Bears' last five games. |
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| 01-26-19 | UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5 | 77-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
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San Diego State is in a foul mood after blowing a 20-point road lead against Fresno State in its last game. The Aztecs are 15-6 ATS for 71 percent in their last 21 home games, including beating UNLV by 38 points last season at home. UNLV has covered just 25 percent of its last 41 away matchups. The Rebels have played an easy Mountain West schedule. So their record is misleading. Look for the Aztecs to expose the Rebels here.
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| 01-26-19 | Samford v. Furman -9 | 75-73 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
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Furman is 10-0 at home with a winning home ATS mark. The Paladins have dominated this series winning the past six times. They beat Samford both times last season winning each game by double digits, including defeating the Bulldogs by 15 points on the road. The spot is bad for Samford. The Bulldogs are coming off a 107-106 overtime loss to Wofford as 12-point road 'dogs this past Thursday.
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| 01-26-19 | Dayton v. Fordham OVER 132.5 | 75-52 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
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Dayton won last year's game, 80-70, against Fordham. The Flyers rank No. 5 in the country in field goal percentage. Fordham has some fancy defensive statistics that are out of whack because of the easy schedule it has played. The Flyers have gone Over the total in nine of their last 12 games. The Over has cashed in Fordham's past four games. The Over has cashed five of the last six times the two teams have met.
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| 01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
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Creighton is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.9 points a game. Yet the Bluejays were held to 69 points in an 84-69 road loss to Butler during the team's first meeting on Jan. 5. Creighton made just 7 of 27 3-point shots (25.9 percent), was 16-of-24 (66.7 percent) from the foul line and hit 45.1 percent from the floor. On the season, the Bluejays rank fourth in field goal percentage at 50.5 percent, are No. 2 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 43 percent and are 67 percent from the foul line. So I see vast improvement coming from the Bluejays at home in the rematch. Creighton has gone Over in six of its last eight home matchups. Butler ranks 213th in defensive field goal percentage and 190th in 3-point defense. The Bulldogs have played seven consecutive Over the total games. They are averaging 79.6 points in their last three games. Creighton had problems stopping Kamar Baldwin, Butler's leading scorer. He scored 28 points and dished off seven assists against the Bluejays. Since the team's last met, Butler forward Jordan Tucker has come on to average 16.5 points so the Bluejays just can't concentrate on Baldwin. The Bulldogs have been a strong Over team in Big East competiton with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times (81 percent) in league play.
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| 01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
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The Nets have been a great below-the-radar story winning 18 of their last 23 games to become a solid playoff contender. The Nets have accomplished this with a deep rotation not having any superstars. But now the Nets are laying their biggest number of the season. They are doing this against a long-time division and neighbor rival and they are doing it when they could be without several players to their rotation, one of whom is vitally important. Star reserve Spencer Dinwiddie - who is averaging 17.2 points - is not likely to play because of a thumb injury, Jared Dudley is out with a hamstring injury and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable with a shoulder injury. Dinwiddie scored 25 points when the teams last met on Dec. 8. The Nets beat the Knicks, 112-104, at Madison Square Garden. Despite their turnaround season, the Nets are averaging an NBA-worst 14,258 fans per game. Many of those fans for tonight's game will be Knicks fans. There is a pride element in the NBA. The Knicks upset the Bucks last month. The Knicks will be up for this game. They have covered six of the last seven in the series. The Nets are not a team to lay big points with as 14 of their last 18 victories have been by single digits. Brooklyn has won three of its last four games by an average of three points with one coming in overtime.
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| 01-24-19 | Warriors v. Wizards +10.5 | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
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Just like last season, the Wizards are playing much better without John Wall. How well? They are 8-3 ATS since losing Wall for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. Included among their victories during this current home span are wins against the Bucks by seven and against the 76ers by 17. Milwaukee has a better record than Golden State. The Wizards' only home defeat during this span came in overtime to the Raptors. This is a rare nationally televised (TNT) game for Washington. The Warriors have a more challenging game on deck playing at the Celtics on Saturday. So the Wizards certainly should be the more motivated team.
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| 01-24-19 | Hofstra v. James Madison UNDER 144 | 85-68 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
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Hofstra has gone Under in 13 of its last 16 road games. Look for that trend to continue here. The Pride has become zone-oriented and James Madison has had problems versus zone defenses. James Madison shoot just 43.3 percent from the floor. The Dukes have failed to reach 70 points in three of their last four games. Hofstra is capable of putting up big numbers so James Madison is not going to play up-tempo.
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| 01-24-19 | Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 153 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
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Nothing like Horizon League basketball - at 8 in the morning West Coast time. Yep these two teams tip-off in the morning local time, which automatically has me thinking Under the total. Oakland has scored 76 or fewer points in six of its last nine games. The Golden Grizzlies are perceived as a high-scoring outfit. Yet they have gone Under in 20 of their past 28 Horizon League games. Indiana-Purdue is averaging fewer than 68 points during its last five games if you discount the Jagaurs' 90-74 victory against Cleveland State. The Jaguars have been an Under team, too, in league play as eight of their past 11 Horizon League matchups have gone below the total.
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| 01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
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Going up against the Jazz in Salt Lake City usually isn't a pleasant experience. It has been especially tough for the Nuggets. Denver has lost seven road games in a row to Utah with the average loss being 14 points. Denver enters this matchup a bit fat and happy following two blowout home victories. Those wins, though, occurred against the Bulls and Cavaliers. Utah, by contrast, is in an angry mood. The Jazz lost 109-104 at home to Portland in their last game this past Monday. The Jazz had won six consecutive games prior to that. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS following a loss. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its past nine road games. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are having exceptional months for the Jazz. Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points in his last nine games. Gobert has pulled down at least 13 rebounds in his last eight games. Gobert could be the best rim protector in the Western Conference and can bother Nikola Jokic. The Jazz's banged-up backcourt is in better shape now with Ricky Rubio back from a hamstring injury that had sidelined him for six games. Rubio got some of the rust off in the Jazz's loss to the Trail Blazers, which was his first game back. |
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| 01-23-19 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 225 | 120-122 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
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The Spurs have been sharper on defense giving up a respectable 106.2 points during their last four games. San Antonio, though, has been held to fewer than 96 points during two of its last four games. The Spurs could catch a huge break if Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons can't play. Both are questionable. The 76ers have held two of their last three foes to 96 points or fewer. These teams have an Under history, too, with the Under winning 11 of the past 14 times in the series.
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| 01-23-19 | St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3 | 65-51 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
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UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure. |
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| 01-22-19 | Duke v. Pittsburgh +13 | Top | 79-64 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
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Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
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| 01-22-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | 114-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
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Portland is playing its best ball going 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their last seven games and have had equally good point spread success versus the Thunder covering six of the last seven meetings. This is a key Northwest Division matchup with both teams trailing the Nuggets by 3 1/2 games. Portland also has revenge for a 111-109 home loss to Oklahoma City from 18 days ago. Some of Oklahoma City's home-court advantage is lost because of the spot. The Thunder had to fly in from the East Coast after defeating the Knicks on Sunday. The Trail Blazers posted a road victory against the Jazz on Monday. Portland was idle the previous two days, though. The Trail Blazers had last played on Friday before Monday's game against the Jazz. The Thunder are playing for the fifth time in eight days and third time in four days - all on different courts. Oklahoma City has its share of stars. But the Trail Blazers' backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum rates as high as any guard tandem and big man Jusuf Nurkic is having a breakthrough season.
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| 01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
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Nebraska gives up just 61.3 points a game. Only 11 teams give up fewer points per game. Rutgers is a far better defensive team than offensive one. The Scarlet Knights rank 67th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights, though, figure to have problems handling the ball. Nebraska leads the Big Ten in steals per game. The Scarlet Knights remain without their leadings scorer, Eugene Omoruyi. He's out with a leg injury. Rutgers knows it can't win shootout games. So expect a slow tempo. That's been the pattern of the past three meetings between these two teams with the average combined score being just 121.6 points. |
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| 01-21-19 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 213 | 104-88 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
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Never mind the early starting time. You put together the two worst teams in the NBA playing on Martin Luther King Day and you're going to get a high-scoring game especially when those two teams happen to be the Bulls and Cavaliers. Not only should this be a loose, fun game, but neither the Bulls nor Cavaliers have been playing any defense. Chicago is giving up an average of 122.2 points in its last seven games. The Cavaliers' defense has been even worse if you discount their 101-95 victory against the Lakers. They are yielding an average of 126.5 points a game during their last nine games, not including the Lakers result. The Over has cashed in seven of the Bulls' last eight games, while the Over is 9-1-1 in Cleveland's past 11 home contests. Both teams are without their best inside defensive players. Larry Nance Jr. is out for Cleveland. So is Wendell Carter Jr. for the Bulls. The Cavs don't have a shot-blocking presence minus Nance while Carter was the Bulls' lone physical inside force.
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| 01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves -10 | 114-116 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
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Minnesota had been playing well. That was before the Timberwolves' last two games - a road loss to the 76ers and home loss to the Spurs this past Friday. But now the Timberwolves drop way down in class hosting the Suns, who are 4-19 SU, 10-13 ATS on the road. This is the Suns' finale of a four-game road trip. It marks their fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Suns don't have much quality depth and they may have lost two players during their 135-115 road loss to Charlotte on Saturday night. Star rookie center Dandre Ayton suffered an ankle injury and reserve forward Richard Holmes hurt his foot. Minnesota is averaging 112.8 points in its last five games. Phoenix is allowing 125.6 points in its last three games. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.8 points this month. He could be in line for a monster performance if Ayton can't play. The Timberwolves should not lack motivation. They have a revenge factor having lost 107-99 to the Suns in Phoenix on Dec. 15. The teams also meet again on Tuesday in Phoenix. So the Timberwolves understand the urgency of holding court at home.
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| 01-20-19 | Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 158 | 71-95 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
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These teams have a history of going Under when playing in Iowa and I see that continuing here. I can see Illinois' freshmen having problems against the Hawkeyes' defense at this venue especially coming off a high-scoring home win. The Under has cashed the last four times the Illinis have gone against an above .500 opponent. Iowa is off an upset road victory against Penn State. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times Iowa has played after it won its previous game. |
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| 01-19-19 | Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
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These are the two best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is 6-0 versus Northern Colorado during the past three seasons in regular season action. The Wildcats, though, have revenge. Northern Colorado ended their season in the Big Sky Conference Tournament last season. That game was played at a neutral site. Weber State has won 86 percent of its conference home games under Coach Randy Rahe. The Wildcats have a size advantage and the superior defense. Weber State doesn't lack for scoring averaging 82.6 points and is a strong defensive rebounding team so it can limit Northern Colorado's second chance opportunities.
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| 01-19-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
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Miami is 0-2 on its current four-game road trip. The Heat meet the Bulls here before concluding their road swing against the revenge-minded Celtics on Monday. This is the spot for the Heat to make sure they don't go 0-4 on this trip. Chicago is 0-9 in its last nine games. The Bulls just completed an embarrassing 0-5 road trip with a 30-point loss to the Nuggets this past Thursday. The Bulls come back home for the first time in nearly two weeks at low ebb and suffering a key below-the-radar injury. Chicago rookie forward Wendell Carter Jr. suffered a thumb injury this week that is going to sideline him two-to-three months. The 6-foot-10 Carter was coming on averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7 rebounds per game. More important, he gave the Bulls their only physical presence in the paint. His toughness is going to be missed especially against a rugged, defensive-minded team such as Miami. The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest points in the league. The Bulls are last in scoring. Miami lost 98-93 to the Pistons Friday night. The Heat made 5-of-19 free throws (26.3 percent) in that game setting a franchise-record for worst free throw shooting in a game with a minimum of 15 attempts. Miami isn't a good free throw shooting team mainly because of Hassan Whiteside, the worst free throw shooter in the league. But missing 19 of 24 free throws is absurd. The Heat also didn't have Josh Richardson, their leading scorer, in their loss to the Pistons. Richardson missed the game due to illness. It's obviously a plus if he plays. But even if he doesn't I like the Heat. Their Friday starting group of Whiteside, James Johnson Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson had only played two minutes together all season. Now they would get to start a second straight game within 24 hours. The Bulls lost to the Heat as four-point home underdogs, 103-96, when the teams met on Nov. 23. The Heat didn't have starting point guard Goran Dragic for that game either. Chicago has lost its last four games at United Center. Three of those losses were by 17 points to the Nets, 28 to the Magic and 25 to the Timberwolves.
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| 01-19-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -8.5 | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
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This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
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| 01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
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Both matchup-wise and situationally the Trail Blazers hold key edges. Portland plays better defense than the Pelicans, who rank 27th in scoring defense, and also is the stronger rebounding team ranking No. 3 in the category. The Trail Blazers are playing well, too, winning seven of their last 10. Anthony Davis is an absolute monster up front, but Portland big man Josuf Nurkic is playing the best ball of his career coming off a triple/double and the Trail Blazers hold a backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. As for the spot, Portland has a strong home-court. The Trail Blazers have won 19 of their 26 home games this season covering 62 percent. New Orleans is a bad road club losing 18 of its 24 away matchups while going 9-14 (39%) ATS in those games. This also is the Pelicans' fourth road game in seven days. Being bad on the road and weak defensively is a tough combination for the Pelicans to overcome. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Pelicans in 13 of the last 15 regular-season games, including 132-119 at home on Nov. 1 in the lone meeting between the teams this season. Davis, though, did not play in that game. Don't look for the Trail Blazers to take the Pelicans lightly, however. Portland still has bitter memories of the Pelicans sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
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| 01-18-19 | St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5 | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
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St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury. |
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| 01-17-19 | BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
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Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
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| 01-17-19 | Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
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After three straight Overs, look for Oregon to go Under the total in this matchup. The Ducks are going back to slowing things down following games against racehorses UCLA and USC. Arizona plays at a much more deliberate tempo than the Bruins and Trojans. Both Oregon and Arizona are outstanding defensive teams. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and gives up the 35th-fewest points in the nation. The Ducks are without their star shot blocker injured center Bol Bol,but could get big man Kenny Wooten back. The Ducks apply tremendous pressure on the ball ranking No. 1 in the Pac 12 in forcing turnovers. The Wildcats rank 45th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.1 points. Two strong defenses in a game where the tempo should be slow. That spells Under.
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| 01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
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Charlotte is one of those decent home, bad road teams. The Hornets are 14-8 at home, 6-15 on the road. One of those away defeats came just five days ago at Sacramento. The Kings won, 104-97. So the Hornets have short revenge motivation. Charlotte lost by seven points at the Kings. The Hornets were 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) at the free throw line in that game. They rank ninth on the season in free throw percentage at 78.9 percent. The Kings are 9-11 SU on the road, 10-10 ATS. Sacramento has been far worse than average, though, recently on the road losing and failing to cover during their past four away matchups. The Kings haven't been on the road for nine days. They lost their last road contest, 115-111, to the Suns, who by far have the worst record in the Western Conference. Sacramento is fat and happy with three straight victories - all coming at home. Now the Kings go on the road where they have not looked good.
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| 01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
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Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
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| 01-16-19 | Spurs +1 v. Mavs | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
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Gregg Popovich. That's the short answer as to why I like the Spurs here. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mentality having lost three of their last four games, including an embarrassing 108-93 loss to the Hornets at home on Monday. I trust Popovich to have his team fired-up. Dallas is tough at home. But the Mavericks are not as good as San Antonio and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games. The Spurs have been excellent in this situation covering 11 of the last 15 times when playing on one day's rest. There is a good chance the Spurs get back Rudy Gay. He has missed the last five games with a sprained wrist. It's an added bonus, too, if the Spurs get back key reserve Marco Belinelli, who suffered a knee injury this past Saturday and is day-to-day.
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| 01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 115-120 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
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Orlando is playing its best ball coming off consecutive home victories against the Celtics and Rockets this past weekend. The Magic are rested having been idle the past two days. They catch the Pistons returning home following a four-game West Coast trip that concluded Monday night in Utah. Detroit is 2-8 in its last 10 games and has a losing ATS mark when favored. The Magic have covered seven of the past eight times versus the Pistons, including defeating them, 109-107, as 1.5-point home favorites on Dec. 30. One of the major keys in beating Detroit is slowing down Blake Griffin. The Pistons beat the Clippers for their lone victory during their recently concluded four-game trip because Griffin lit up his former teammates for 44 points. Orlando has the defensive stopper to bother Griffin with Aaron Gordon. He helped hold Griffin to just four field goals and 15 points during the previous meeting.
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| 01-15-19 | Warriors -110 v. Nuggets | Top | 142-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
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Kudos to the Nuggets for owning the best record in the Western Conference at the halfway point of the season. I do believe the Nuggets are legitimate. They've always had a strong offense and now their defense is improved. However ... the Nuggets are not in the class of the two-time defending world champion Warriors especially now that Golden State has Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all back in the lineup. A motivated Warriors squad can beat any team any where. The Warriors certainly aren't going to lack incentive here trailing Denver by one-half game for best record in the West. Golden State also has revenge for a 100-98 road loss to the Nuggets from Oct. 21. Golden State has won six of its last seven games, including four in a row. The Warriors are averaging 130 points during their las six games. I want them going for me in this pick'em type range.
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| 01-15-19 | LSU +4 v. Ole Miss | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
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LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
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| 01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 128.5 | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
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These two teams met twice last season and the combined final score totals were 125 and 112 points, respectively. Both games went Under the total. This was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under has cashed in this series. Expect that trend to continue in today's matchup. Akron is averaging 66 points in three MAC games this season. The Zips are shooting only 36 percent from the floor and 23.7 percent from 3-point range in conference play. Both teams play at a very slow tempo. The Under is 18-7-1 in Eastern Michigan's last 26 MAC contests. The Zips figure to struggled against Eastern Michigan's matchup zone defense given their shooting woes. Akron is playing solid defense this season ranking 50th in field goal percentage defense.
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| 01-14-19 | Blazers +2.5 v. Kings | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
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Yes, the Trail Blazers had to play last night falling, 116-113, at Denver when their huge comeback came up just short against the Western Conference-leading Nuggets. Portland had won four in a row entering that matchup. The Kings are not the Nuggets. They are a 22-21 team that has failed to cover six of the last seven times when going against an above .500 opponent. Sacramento has a much improved backcourt with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic. But it's trumped by Portland's star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers also have the best big man on the floor, Jusuf Nurkic. Portland should dominate the boards ranking third in the NBA in rebounding while the Kings are a bottom-10 rebounding team. The Trail Blazers also have defeated the Kings during the past four meetings going 3-0-1 ATS.
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| 01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -6 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
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The Rockets average 10 more points per game than the struggling Grizzlies and are in a kill spot returning home after blowing a 12-point lead against the Magic while suffering a 116-109 road upset loss to the Magic Sunday. Houston is 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games, including defeating the Grizzlies, 113-101, on Dec. 31. The Rockets got too lax against the Magic and it cost them. Expect a much stronger effort and focus from the Rockets. Motivation, not talent, is the key for the Rockets against this opponent. And, now, Houston should have that. Based on talent, the Rockets should bury Memphis, which is 7-18 in its last 25 games and 1-7 in its last eight. The Grizzlies have lost by seven points or more in six of their past seven defeats. The Grizzlies are playing short-handed, too, down three of their rotation players with Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons all injured. The Rockets are playing without rest, but the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS when playing on one day rest.
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| 01-13-19 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
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Maybe the oddsmaker doesn't realize how bad Cleveland's defense really is because its season stats show the Cavaliers ranking 23rd in scoring defense. But no team has played worst defense than the Cavaliers during the past two weeks. Cleveland has yielded 117 or more points in seven of its last eight games. During their past four games, the Cavaliers are surrendering a whopping 128.5 points a game. Not helping matters for the Cavaliers is their top shot blocker, Larry Nance, is out. The Lakers are averaging 111.5 points in their past four home games. LeBron James isn't back, but talented scorers Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are. The Lakers want to light up the scoreboard to prove they aren't just about James especially going against his former team.
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| 01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
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Denver got caught peeking ahead to this home matchup. The Nuggets were upset, 102-93, on the road by the lowly Suns Saturday night. Even with that defeat, though, the Nuggets still are 7-2 in their last nine games. They own the best record in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games at Pepsi Center. Portland is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times it has played on the road versus an opponent with a winning home mark. The Trail Blazers also enter this matchup fat and happy. They are on a four-game win streak - all home wins. Their last three victories have been against bad teams - Knicks, Bulls and Hornets. This is Portland's first road contest in 12 days. The Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS the last four times playing the Nuggets.
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| 01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
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If there was anything positive for the Hornets in their embarrassing 127-96 road loss to the Trail Blazers Friday night it was none of their players had to log big minutes. That should help Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets have been blown out now in two straight games, having lost 128-109 to the Clippers in LA on Tuesday. However, only once all season have the Hornets dropped three games in a row and that was more than a month ago. The Trail Blazers and Clippers are superior to the Hornets especially when playing them at home. The Kings aren't. Sacramento has lost one fewer game than Charlotte. The Hornets are dropping down in class after facing the Trail Blazers and Clippers. The Kings aren't playing well either losing five of their last seven games. Just two games ago on this past Tuesday, the Suns defeated the Kings, 115-111. The Hornets met the Suns in Phoenix three games ago this past Sunday and beat the Suns, 119-113. Charlotte has the best player in Kemba Walker. The Hornets also have covered in four of their last five visits to Sacramento.
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| 01-12-19 | St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
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| 01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 227.5 | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
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This total is inflated based on the matchup these two teams had two days ago. The Spurs beat the Thunder in double overtime, 154-147. That was a wild game. This one shouldn't be. Both teams are above average defensive clubs. The Thunder are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Oklahoma City ranks eighth in scoring defense and is in the top five in shooting percentage defense. San Antonio gives up the 11th fewest points per game in the league. Until that wild Thursday game, the Spurs had not allowed more than 111 points in 16 straight games. Even with that crazy double overtime game, the Under sitll has cashed six of the past eight times in this series. The Under also has won the last four times these teams have played in Oklahoma City.
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| 01-12-19 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
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NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
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| 01-11-19 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | 113-141 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
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Cleveland ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Cavaliers are surrendering 122.7 points in their last seven games and just lost their best shot-blocker, Larry Nance. The Cavaliers, though, just put up 124 points against the Pelicans. The Pelicans are a bad defensive team. But Indiana isn't. The Pacers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA. The Cavaliers scored 115 against them in the game before New Orleans. The Rockets have permitted at least 101 points during their last 11 games. They are giving up an average of 114.4 points in their last four games.
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| 01-11-19 | Bucks v. Wizards +7 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
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Sometimes facts lead to misperceptions. There are two examples of this in the Bucks-Wizards Friday matchup. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA. John Wall is a great player being a five-time All-Star. Both sentences are facts. However ... there is more than meets the eye in both statements. Knowing them should help lead to a profitable investment by backing the Wizards. The Bucks deserve huge kudos for compiling the top winning percentage in the league through 40 games. But the Bucks have put together their outstanding record mainly at home. They are 10-7 on the road, 8-8 ATS. So spread-wise, Milwaukee is merely an average away club. The Bucks also are in a flat spot after a huge nationally televised road win against the Rockets and James Harden on Wednesday. Proving themselves on national TV is a big deal to the small market Bucks. This game is far from the madding crowd. It's a low-key affair against a 17-25 Washington team that is minus its best player, Wall. Guess what, though? You can make a strong case Washington is better team-wise without Wall. Remember when Wall was injured last season? The Wizards proceeded to play their best ball winning 11 of 14 games. That streak pushed them into the playoffs. It could happen again this season. The Wizards are 4-3 and 5-2 ATS since Wall was lost for the season. There is more to the Wizards than Wall. Otto Porter Jr. has gotten the rust off since returning from a quad injury. Bradley Beal is a top-scoring backcourt threat. Trevor Ariza is an underrated two-way pro. Wall's injury has also brought more prominence to unsung guard Tomas Satoransky and center Thomas Bryant. Washington has won and covered each of its last three home games. The Wizards are below-the-radar and should be highly motivated to prove themselves in this spot. Please note that since I released this game late Thursday night, the line has dropped quite a bit as word is out that Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful and Eric Bledsoe is questionable. I would not make this a max unit wager at the current number. However, the handicap still holds. The Wizards are very live here to beat the Bucks straight-up if Milwaukee doesn't have Antetokounmpo. |
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| 01-10-19 | Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
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Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here. |
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| 01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -6 | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
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The Clippers are fat and happy after consecutive home wins against Orlando and Charlotte. Now, though, they have to step up on the road against the Nuggets, who are in revenge mode and have been playing well all season. I don't see it happening for the Clippers. The Nuggets are 6-1 in their last seven games and have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They have the far superior defense and an edge up front with Nikola Jokic. |
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| 01-10-19 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5 | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
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UCLA isn't a particularly good defensive team. Oregon is, or make that was. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage, but that is going to change. The Ducks lost their defensive presence with injuries to 7-foot-2 Bol Bol and 6-foot-8 Kenny Wooten. Oregon just surrendered 77 points to Oregon State in its last game. That was nearly four points more than the Beavers were averaging on the season. The Bruins are a different team, too, because of the coaching change from Steve Alford to interim coach Murry Bartow. In two games under Bartow, the Bruins scored 92 points versus Stanford and 98 against Cal. They are much more up-tempo under Bartow than they were under Alford, who is a Bobby Knight disciple.
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| 01-10-19 | Michigan -9 v. Illinois | 79-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
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Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games. |
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| 01-09-19 | Pistons v. Lakers -117 | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
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No, LeBron James isn't back. But Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are. Given those two along with Lonzo Ball and playing at home following a confidence-building road victory against the Mavericks this past Monday gives a buy sign to the Lakers. The Lakers' 107-97 road win against the Mavericks is impressive. Dallas was 15-3 at home entering that game. The Pistons are back in lottery territory following a strong start to the season. They are 4-14 in their last 18 games. Detroit has lost and failed to cover in four of its past five road matchups. The Pistons' lone away victory during this span came against the struggling Grizzlies, who are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games. The Lakers have covered seven of the last eight times they have hosted the Pistons.
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| 01-09-19 | Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134 | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
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Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game. |
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| 01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | 119-117 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
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Sometimes a team gets a psychological lift in their first game following a coaching change. I don't see that happening, though, with the Timberwolves in this matchup after they fired Tom Thibodeau on Sunday. Oklahoma City is in revenge mode from a home loss to Minnesota just two weeks ago. That was a rare road victory for the Timberwolves, who have played far worse away from Target Center going 5-15 SU, 8-12 in their away games. The Thunder are one of the top-seven teams in the NBA. The Timberwolves are a below .500 club. Motivation is key for Oklahoma City, which has a winning spread mark at home and is 5-2 ATS the past seven times laying 7 or more points. The Thunder lost at home to the Wizards in embarrassing fashion, 116-98, this past Sunday getting dominated on the boards and defense. Those are two of the Thunder's strong areas. The Thunder went into that matchup against the Wizards fat and happy returning home after going 2-0 on a West Coast trip beating the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The Thunder are too professional and have too much superstar talent with Russell Westbrook and Paul George to suffer a second straight home loss to an inferior opponent especially with revenge motivation. The Timberwolves may not have their full focus as the firing of Thibodeau was a surprise coming after the team had blown out the Lakers at home for their second win in a row. Thibodeau not only was the head coach, but also president of basketball operations. It's a distracting and unexpected move. Now the Timberwolves have to play a far superior opponent on the road just two days later. Untested 32-year-old Ryan Saunders is the Timberwolves' interim coach. I don't see him enjoying success in this spot.
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| 01-08-19 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
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Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
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| 01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -117 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
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Kudos to the Nuggets. It's nearly halfway through the NBA regular season and Denver has the best record in the Western Conference. The Rockets, though, should be ready for the Nuggets at home. Houston has picked up its pace since a slow beginning and is playing extremely well despite being without Chris Paul. The Rockets are 11-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games. They just lost, though, on the road to the Trail Blazers this past Saturday, Among the Rockets' wins during this current 13-game span have been against the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers when they had LeBron James and Trail Blazers. Houston is 8-0-1 ATS in its past nine home games. Denver has won five in a row. But its last four victories have all come against below .500 teams - Suns, Knicks, Kings and Hornets. Those teams are a combined 44 games under .500. The Nuggets have failed to cover five of their last six road games. They have a losing road spread mark on the season.
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| 01-05-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5 | 72-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
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Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
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| 01-04-19 | Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan | 74-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
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Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
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| 01-04-19 | Wizards v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
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Quietly Miami has been on a monster point spread run covering 13 of its last 16 games. Look for the Heat to cover another game as this matchup against the Wizards sets up well for them. Washington has been terrible on the road lately losing and failing to cover its past seven away matchups. The Wizards have lost by at least seven points in each of their past seven road defeats. This includes lopsided losses to teams much worse than the Heat, including falling to the Pistons by 16 points and 15 points to the Cavaliers. The Heat should dominate the paint against the Wizards, who are a weak rebounding team and rank second-to-last in scoring defense. The Wizards are minus John Wall and thin up front with Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris out. This has drained Washington's bench. The Heat, though, just got Dion Waiters back from injury boosting their rotation. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Bradley Beal with Wall out. Miami ranks third in defensive field goal percentage and give up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league.
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| 01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -120 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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The Spurs have covered 75 percent of their last 32 home games. They have defeated the Raptors nine consecutive times at AT&T Center going 6-2-1 ATS. San Antonio is playing well going 10-3 in its last 13 games, while the Raptors are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS during their past five road games. So it's not too much to ask the Spurs to win this matchup especially considering how bad the Raptors have looked recently on the road. Toronto's last four road defeats have been by 29 points to the Magic, 25 to the 76ers, nine to the Nuggets and six to the Trail Blazers. The Spurs are going to be super motivated, too, for this matchup since it marks the return of Kawhi Leonard to San Antonio. There is bad blood between the Spurs and Leonard following last season when Leonard played in only nine games for San Antonio. The Raptors face San Antonio short-handed without point guard Kyle Lowery, their second-best player, and center Jonas Valanciunas. Lowery has a back injury that has kept him out of eight of the past nine games while Valanciunas isn't expected back for another four weeks due to a thumb injury.
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| 01-02-19 | Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 69-55 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
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Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
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| 01-02-19 | Heat -6 v. Cavs | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
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Just two games ago, Miami hosted Cleveland. Final score: Heat 118, Cavaliers 94. While I don't expect the Heat to bury the Cavaliers on the road by that much in this short turnaround, I do expect them to cover this spread. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last nine games, including the past six. They have failed to reach 100 points in five of their last seven games. The Heat rank third in defensvie field goal percentage and seventh in fewest points allowed. Miami is on a nice point spread run covering 12 of its last 15 games. The Heat are 8-1 ATS during their past nine road matchups. The Heat, though, shouldn't lack motivation or being overconfident having lost their last game. That was at home to Minnesota, 113-104, this past Sunday. It was the most points Miami had allowed in its last 15 games. Cleveland is the third-lowest scoring team in the NBA. The Cavaliers are playing at home for the first time in more than a week having concluded a three-game road trip this past Saturday. They could be rusty and unfocused after had a long holiday break following their last game. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS on three or more days rest. The Cavaliers have permitted 110 or more points in five of their last six games.
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| 01-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 116-122 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
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Down point guard Kyle Lowry and center Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors have hit a scoring drought. They scored only 87 points against the Magic and 95 points versus the Bulls in their last two games. Now Toronto faces Utah, which has a far better defense than the Magic and Bulls. The Jazz give up the fifth-fewest points in the league. Utah has held five of its past nine opponents to 97 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in eight of Utah's last nine games and five of the Jazz's past six road games. The Jazz rank 24th in scoring. Toronto ranks eighth in defense. The Jazz are reliant on second-year man Donovan Mitchell, who is having a down year so far shooting .41.1 percent from the floor after connecting on 43.7 of his shots last season. Playing on New Year's Day is a plus for the Under, too, following New Year's Eve. |
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| 12-31-18 | Hawks v. Pacers -11.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
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Indiana has the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Atlanta has the worst defense in the league. The difference is the Pacers surrendering an average of 17 fewer points per game than the Hawks. Throw in a strong situational spot favoring Indiana and the possibility the Hawks could be without maybe their third best player, Kent Bazemore, and this spread doesn't seem so high. The Pacers are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference at 24-12. They are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have won four in a row. The Pacers last played on Friday. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing on two days rest. Indiana doesn't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Hawks are in action for the fourth time in six days and third in four days. This is an early start time, too, which does the Hawks no favors almost making this a back-to-back game. Atlanta enters the matchup fat and happy with consecutive victories, including upsetting the Timerwolves in overtime as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog. Atlanta may be without Bazemore. The shooting guard is questionable with an ankle injury.
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| 12-30-18 | Kings v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
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LeBron James isn't likely to play because of a groin injury suffered on Christmas Day. But the Lakers are going to go all out here after losing their first two games without James. The first game the Lakers played without James was this past Thursday against the Kings on the road. The Lakers built a 15-point lead with 6:44 left in the game. The Kings came all the way back to win, 117-116, with Bogdan Bogdanovic sinking a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Sacramento the victory. Stunned by that loss, the Lakers were buried the next day by the Clippers. Now the Lakers have had a full day to regroup. LA doesn't lack talent without James. They have Brandom Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Kevin Kuzma. The Kings are an improved team, but their young core isn't as talented as the Lakers. The Lakers are home, highly motivated and getting points against a team they are least the equal of without James.
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| 12-29-18 | Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134 | 62-50 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
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These same two teams met just two weeks ago and Oregon won, 66-54, at home for a combined total of 120. That stayed well under the 133 lined total. Oregon didn't have its leading scorer, center Bol Bol, for that game. He's out for this game, too. The Ducks average 61 points without him. Oregon is a strong under team. The Ducks rank 35th defensively and have slowed their pace. The under has cashed in five of their past six games. Boise State is a better defensive team than an offensive one. The Broncos don't push pace either. These teams are familar with each other. So I see another low-scoring game.
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| 12-29-18 | Rockets -125 v. Pelicans | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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The Rockets are back playing like the Rockets again. Houston is playing better than anyone winning eight of its last nine. The Rockets have knocked off tough opponents, too, during this span beating the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Grizzlies, Lakers and Trail Blazers. Houston's lone defeat in this time frame came on the road to the Heat when the Rockets were playing without rest. Now the Rockets draw the Pelicans without rest. New Orleans was super extended in getting past the pesky Mavericks, 114-112, on Friday in a revenge spot. Dallas had defeated New Orleans on Wednesday. Anthony Davis had a huge game on Friday with 48 points and 17 rebounds. He also played nearly 43 minutes. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days. The Pelicans are one of the weakest defensive teams in the league ranking 26th. James Harden is on fire averaging 40.5 points during the last eight games. Houston is averaging 120 points in its last two games. The Rockets aren't going to lack motivation either. The Pelicans embarrassed them early in the season with a 131-112 home win on Houston's opening night.
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| 12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
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The Hornets just have to wait two days to get redemption. That's how long their last game was, which happened to be a 134-132 overtime road loss to the Nets on Wednesday. The Hornets blew an eight-point lead during the final three-plus minutes of regulation. The Nets are improved and playing well. But Charlotte is the better team and has the best player, Kemba Walker. The Nets slowed down Walker in the fourth quarter using a form of box-and-one that might have caught the Hornets off guard. Charlotte will be better prepared this time around. This back-and-back series has a playoff and zig-and-zag feel to it. So I want the Hornets going for me here.
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| 12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
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The Nuggets have been a major surprise opening the season with 21 wins in their first 31 games. A regression is coming, though, for Denver. That was evident in its last game, a 132-111 blowout loss to the Clippers on the road this past Saturday. That was Denver's worst loss of the season. Denver is down three starters with Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton all out. Big man Millsap is an underrated loss. The Clippers dominated the paint against the Nuggets scoring 80 points down low while shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field. The Clippers also outrebounded the Nuggets by 21 boards. The Spurs are coming on after a slow start. They are 7-2 in their last nine games with five of those victories coming by 25 or more points. LaMarcus Aldridge can have a big game with Millsap out. San Antonio has covered 73 percent of its past 30 home games.
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| 12-25-18 | Indiana State +12 v. TCU | 69-83 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
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I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
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| 12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
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Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
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| 12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
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This is a circle-the-wagons home game for Boston following three losses in a row. The Celtics held a long meeting following their Friday night home loss to the Bucks. I see the Celtics rebounding in a big way against the Hornets, who are not a good road team. The Celtics have covered 74 percent of their last 31 home games. Charlotte is 4-8 on the road. The Hornets have suffered road losses to the Hawks and Cavaliers. This marks their first away game since Dec. 9. The Celtics swept the Hornets at home during each of the last two seasons going 3-0-1 ATS in those games.
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| 12-22-18 | Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5 | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
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Note this game is being played at a neutral site - the Orleans Arena is Las Vegas. Neutral sites often are plus for the Under since neither team is familar with the gym and basket. New Mexico State and Drake both are huge Under teams when playing at neutral sites. The Aggies have gone Under in 69 percent of their last 43 neutral site games. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time in Drake's past 40 neutral site matchups. New Mexico State ranks 66th defensively. The Aggies held Kansas to 63 points. That was 18 points below the Jayhawks' scoring average. Drake is from the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have held three of their last four opponents to 66 or fewer points. New Mexico State is not a good free throw shooting team.
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| 12-22-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers -110 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Clippers are back to winning with the return of key sixth man Lou Williams. Williams helped the Clippers beat the Mavericks, 125-121, at home on Thursday to halt a four-game losing streak. Williams had missed the previous four games - all of which were losses - because of a hamstring injury. The buy sign is on for me here against the Nuggets. Denver is crippled and rusty. The Nuggets have lost their last two road games, falling to the Hawks and Hornets. Denver had to go into overtime to beat the Magic in the road game before those two. All three of those teams are worse than the Clippers. Denver last was in action on Tuesday. This is too long of a layoff between games. The Nuggets are without three opening-night starters, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton.
Saturday Free Play Heat plus 3 hosting Bucks Bad matchup, bad timing. Look for those factors to do in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a huge road victory against the Celtics Friday night. The Bucks hardly had time to celebrate before flying into South Florida to take on the Heat. Not only is Milwaukee playing without rest, but it's the Bucks' third game in four nights and fourth game in six days all at different venues. Miami is a tough opponent for the Bucks. Not only are the Heat playing their best ball with three straight victories - holding the Grizzlies, Pelicans and Rockets all below 100 points in those wins - but they have the defense, offensive rebounding and slowdown style to frustrate the high-scoring Bucks. Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 games, its best stretch. So it's not a fluke the Heat have defeated Milwaukee five times in a row. The Heat held the Bucks to just 88.3 points in sweeping the three-game series last season. The Bucks are flash and offense with today's new kind of superstar in multi-talented Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat are old-school slowing tempo with a powerful commitment to defense. This clash in styles has worked in Miami's favor. The oddsmaker has no choice but to open the Bucks a road favorite. Milwauklee is 2-5-1 ATS in that role the past eight times. |
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| 12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
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The Spurs are playing better going 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven games. The Spurs are a strong home team - 21-8 ATS in their past 29 home contests. Minnesota is 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS on the road. Minnesota is 1-5 in its last six games. The Timberwolves are below average defensively and rank 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Spurs are No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage and in free throw percentage. The Spurs won't lack motivation as this is a revenge spot for them having suffered one of their worst defeats in the Gregg Popovich era, losing 128-89 in Minnesota on Nov. 28.
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| 12-20-18 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4 | 66-67 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
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Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
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| 12-20-18 | James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5 | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
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Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand. |
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| 12-19-18 | Warriors -2.5 v. Jazz | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
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I understand that Utah has been dealt a bad early season hand by the NBA schedulemakers. The Jazz have endured a brutal, road-heavy schedule. But they are 1-4 in their last five games, lack consistency, rank 26th in 3-point shooting and are not a top-three defense anymore. So I can't see them defeating a healthy Warriors team that is coming on since Stephen Curry returned to the lineup. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson all are playing well. Golden State is 6-2 in its last eight games. When focused, the Warriors can destroy any opponent. Golden State doesn't play again until Saturday. So that focus, concentration and effort should all be there.
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| 12-19-18 | Auburn v. NC State OVER 157 | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
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NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
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| 12-18-18 | Lakers -129 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -129 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
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The Nets are playing their best ball winning their last five games. But I see that streak ending here. There is zero chance now of the Lakers taking Brooklyn lightly especially after losing in embarrassing fashion to the Wizards, 128-110, this past Sunday. LeBron James was held to a season-low 13 points in that defeat. Look for the Lakers to be much more focused. They are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The prideful James should rebound with a strong game. The Nets are a bottom-10 defensive team. LA has by far the better talent and is 12-3-3 ATS during its past 18 visits to Brooklyn.
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| 12-16-18 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | 120-113 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
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Quitely, below the radar, Dallas has rattled off 11 straight home victories, going 10-1 ATS in these games. The Mavericks have beaten teams much better than the Kings during this home win streak such as the Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Rockets and Clippers. It should be an emotional game, too, for the Mavericks as Dirk Nowitzki is set to make his season debut. The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. However, Sacramento is off a hard-played 130-125 home loss to the Warriors from Friday night. The Kings nearly upset the Warriors in their first meeting against them this season losing, 117-116, on the road. The Kings were blown out by the Jazz, 133-112, in their next game following that loss to the Warriors. Dallas lost in its last game this past Thursday, falling to lowly Phoenix on the road, 99-89, as six-point favorites. The Mavericks should come back strong after that humiliation. They are 6-0 ATS when having two or more days rest between games.
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| 12-15-18 | Lakers -127 v. Hornets | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
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The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Rockets. That was on Thursday. The Hornets suffered a 126-124 home loss to the lowly Knicks Friday night. Charlotte's five starters are logged more than 36 minutes. The Hornets have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 games versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets live-and-die with Kemba Walker and he logged more than 40 minutes last night. LeBron James gets up for this opponent, too. So expect an easy Lakers victory. The Lakers have been playing well until that Rockets loss winning six of their past seven leading into that game.
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| 12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147 | 78-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
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Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent. Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in. |
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| Basketball Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 227 | 129-134 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
| 02-03-19 | Xavier v. Creighton -6 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
| 02-02-19 | Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
| 02-02-19 | Lakers v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
| 02-02-19 | Clippers +1.5 v. Pistons | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
| 02-02-19 | Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 147.5 | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
| 02-02-19 | San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
| 02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
| 02-01-19 | Princeton -124 v. Columbia | 55-43 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
| 01-31-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 136.5 | 78-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
| 01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -125 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
| 01-31-19 | Wofford v. Mercer +7.5 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
| 01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers -114 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
| 01-30-19 | Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
| 01-30-19 | Nuggets -8 v. Pelicans | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
| 01-29-19 | Bucks -6 v. Pistons | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
| 01-29-19 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +9 | Top | 92-70 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
| 01-28-19 | Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma | 77-47 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
| 01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 132-100 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
| 01-27-19 | Bucks v. Thunder -113 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
| 01-27-19 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 231 | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
| 01-26-19 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
| 01-26-19 | Utah v. California UNDER 146 | 82-64 | Push | 0 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
| 01-26-19 | UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5 | 77-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
| 01-26-19 | Samford v. Furman -9 | 75-73 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
| 01-26-19 | Dayton v. Fordham OVER 132.5 | 75-52 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
| 01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
| 01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
| 01-24-19 | Warriors v. Wizards +10.5 | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
| 01-24-19 | Hofstra v. James Madison UNDER 144 | 85-68 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
| 01-24-19 | Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 153 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
| 01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
| 01-23-19 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 225 | 120-122 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
| 01-23-19 | St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3 | 65-51 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
| 01-22-19 | Duke v. Pittsburgh +13 | Top | 79-64 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
| 01-22-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | 114-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
| 01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
| 01-21-19 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 213 | 104-88 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
| 01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves -10 | 114-116 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
| 01-20-19 | Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 158 | 71-95 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
| 01-19-19 | Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
| 01-19-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
| 01-19-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -8.5 | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
| 01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
| 01-18-19 | St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5 | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
| 01-17-19 | BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
| 01-17-19 | Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
| 01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
| 01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
| 01-16-19 | Spurs +1 v. Mavs | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
| 01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 115-120 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
| 01-15-19 | Warriors -110 v. Nuggets | Top | 142-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
| 01-15-19 | LSU +4 v. Ole Miss | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
| 01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 128.5 | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
| 01-14-19 | Blazers +2.5 v. Kings | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
| 01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -6 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
| 01-13-19 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
| 01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
| 01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
| 01-12-19 | St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
| 01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 227.5 | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
| 01-12-19 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
| 01-11-19 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | 113-141 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
| 01-11-19 | Bucks v. Wizards +7 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
| 01-10-19 | Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
| 01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -6 | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
| 01-10-19 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5 | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
| 01-10-19 | Michigan -9 v. Illinois | 79-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
| 01-09-19 | Pistons v. Lakers -117 | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
| 01-09-19 | Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134 | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
| 01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | 119-117 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
| 01-08-19 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
| 01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -117 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
| 01-05-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5 | 72-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
| 01-04-19 | Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan | 74-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
| 01-04-19 | Wizards v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
| 01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -120 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
| 01-02-19 | Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 69-55 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
| 01-02-19 | Heat -6 v. Cavs | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
| 01-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 116-122 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
| 12-31-18 | Hawks v. Pacers -11.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
| 12-30-18 | Kings v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
| 12-29-18 | Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134 | 62-50 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
| 12-29-18 | Rockets -125 v. Pelicans | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
| 12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
| 12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
| 12-25-18 | Indiana State +12 v. TCU | 69-83 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
| 12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
| 12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
| 12-22-18 | Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5 | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
| 12-22-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers -110 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
| 12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
| 12-20-18 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4 | 66-67 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
| 12-20-18 | James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5 | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
| 12-19-18 | Warriors -2.5 v. Jazz | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
| 12-19-18 | Auburn v. NC State OVER 157 | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
| 12-18-18 | Lakers -129 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -129 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
| 12-16-18 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | 120-113 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
| 12-15-18 | Lakers -127 v. Hornets | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
| 12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147 | 78-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
