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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-28-18	Connecticut v. Temple -6		57-85	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
Circumstances line up well here for Temple. The Owls played one of their worst games of the season losing 75-42 on the road to eighth-ranked Cincinnati on Tuesday. Connecticut, on the other hand, is coming off a huge upset home win against SMU on Wednesday. The Huskies are 2-6 ATS following a spread cover. The Huskies are in a letdown spot and their concentration is further going to be tested by breaking news that the program is being investigaged by the NCAA. Connecticut remains without second-leading scorer Terry Larrier, who is out with a nose injury.
01-28-18	Clippers v. Pelicans -118	Top	112-103	Loss	-118	10 h 15 m	Show
You can find the Pelicans listed in the obituary section rather than the sports pages after they just lost DeMarcus Cousins for the season. Cousins suffered a season-ending torn Achilles tendon in the final seconds of the Pelicans' victory against the Rockets Friday. That was New Orleans' seventh win in its last eight games and fourth straight. Cousins' injury is likely to doom the Pelicans' chances of making the playoffs. But right now the Pelicans are playing their best ball and they will be highly motivated to win this first matchup minus Cousins especially this being a Sunday home game. The Clippers are nothing special. They are just a .500 club with plenty of injuries of their own with Austin Rivers, Patrick Beverley and Danilo Galinari all out.
01-27-18	Nets +11 v. Wolves		97-111	Loss	-107	8 h 0 m	Show
The Timberwolves are a rising power with an impressive 24-9 record against fellow Western Conference opponents. Strangely, though, the Timberwolves struggle versus the lesser Eastern Conference going 7-11 against those teams. The Nets have been huge underdog money-makers all season especially on the road where they have covered 16 of 24 times in that role for 67 percent. When catching four or more points, the Nets are 20-8 on the season for 71 percent. D'Angelo Russell has been back for four games now. He looked the best he has since returning from a knee injury in the Nets' last game. Brooklyn was blasted in that game, however, by the Bucks losing 116-91 last night. Nets coach Kenny Atkinson questioned the effort of his team following that loss. So I expect the Nets to play very hard in this matchup. They are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times when playing without rest. They also had covered six in a row on the road until that loss to the Bucks. The Timberwolves haven't had All-Star guard Jimmy Butler in their last four games. He's a game-time decision for tonight.
01-27-18	Tennessee-Martin v. Tennessee Tech -6		55-63	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to fade Tennessee-Martin in this spot. The Skyhawks are playing on the road for the fourth straight time. They also are coming off a huge upset of Jacksonville State from two days ago. The Skyhawks have lost 10 of 13 road games this season. Tennessee Tech has revenge for an overtime loss to Tennessee-Martin this season.
01-27-18	Rutgers +8.5 v. Penn State	Top	43-60	Loss	-105	14 h 19 m	Show
Rutgers is the wrong team to be laying a big number against especially in a monster letdown spot. That's the position Penn State is in today. The Nittany Lions are off their biggest win of the season, stunning 13th-ranked Ohio State on the road, 82-79, this past Thursday night on a long 3-pointer by Tony Carr at the buzzer. Now, less than two days later, the Nittany Lions face the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation. Rutgers is weak offensively. But the Scarlet Knights give up the sixth-fewest points per game in the country and rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage. They have allowed 62.1 points per game during their last six games, which is their season average. Rutgers upset Penn State as an 8-point road 'dog last season and are in great position to repeat.
01-27-18	St. John's v. Butler -9		45-70	Win	100	5 h 2 m	Show
The buy sign is back on for Butler. The Bulldogs are back on track and surely don't want to be the first Big East team to lose to St. John's this season. They lost at home to St. John's last season so they surely should be ready this time. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 13 lined home games. It's evident that Chris Mullin was a far better player than a head coach. St. John's is terrible this season under Mullin. The Red Storm are not helped by still missing injured Marcus LoVett, their second-leading scorer.
01-26-18	76ers v. Spurs -3.5	Top	97-78	Loss	-104	15 h 51 m	Show
The 76ers beat the Spurs for the first time in six years, 112-106, at home a little more than three weeks ago. I can't see the 76ers sweeping the Spurs by winning in San Antonio, a place they haven't won at since 2004. The prideful Spurs are down Kawhi Leonard, but still have been dominant at AT&T Center going 20-3 SU, 16-6-1 ATS at home this season. They are 15-1 in their last 16 home contsts winning their last six home games by an average of 13.3 points a game. The 76ers have turned the corner. So they are far more of a threat to end their 13-game losing skid at San Antonio than in previous years. But they must prove they have the maturity and discipline to beat what should be a fired-up Spurs club bent on revenge. Gregg Popovich has made sure he has a fresh LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol for this game. Newly-appointed starting point guard Dejounte Murray is in the midst of a break-out type season.The Spurs have a deep bench, too. They aren't just about Leonard.
01-26-18	Lakers v. Bulls -4		108-103	Loss	-102	15 h 22 m	Show
The spot and situation set up for Chicago here. The question is can the Bulls be trusted to cover a margin at home? I believe they are. Since opening 3-20, the Bulls have turned things around going 15-10. Chicago has been one of the hottest ATS teams covering 20 of its past 26 games. The Bulls have won nine of their last 13 home games with the losses during this span occurring to the Warriors, Rockets, Raptors and Trail Blazers in overtime. Chicago has covered 10 of its last 13 at United Center. The Bulls have done the job versus bad teams going 8-0-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents. The Lakers enter the road fat and happy after a 3-0 homestand with the last victory coming against the Celtics, 108-107, this past Tuesday. LA hasn't been nearly as good on the road going 6-14 away from Staples Center. The Bulls have revenge for a November loss to the Lakers when they weren't playing nearly as well and are coming off an embarrassing 14-point road loss to the 76ers from two nights ago. That was a rare flat game for the Bulls and it occurred following a tough road overtime loss to the Pelicans. The Bulls are back home now, rested and ready.
01-26-18	Wagner +3.5 v. St Francis PA		91-61	Win	100	8 h 43 m	Show
Sources point me to Wagner. The Seahawks have been playing good ball winning five of their last six games They just beat St. Francis, 73-64, eight days ago. Wagner dominated the boards in that game outrebounding St. Francis, 36-23. St. Francis is a weak defensive club. The Red Flash barely 40 percent from the floor in their loss to Wagner and missed 19 of 25 3-point shots.
01-25-18	Knicks v. Nuggets -4.5		118-130	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
The Knicks are a horrendous 6-18 SU, 10-14 ATS away from home. The Nuggets are 17-6 at Pepsi Center with a winning point spread mark there. Given the Knicks' high fatigue ranking - fifth game in nine days - and terrible defense, I'm not going to get fancy. I'll just lay the points. New York is giving up an average of 125 points in its last two games. This is the Knicks' sixth straight road game. They have a far more winnable game on Friday against the Suns. Denver has a number of underrated players with Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray coming to mind. The Nuggets are well rested, too, having last played on Monday.
01-25-18	Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder		112-121	Loss	-115	9 h 23 m	Show
The Thunder have been terrible as chalk going 7-13 ATS versus foes with a winning record and 13-27 overall when favored. Washington actually has a worse record than Oklahoma City by just one game and has more All-Stars than the Thunder do. The Wizards should have Otto Porter back and are out for redemption following a horrendous 98-75 loss to Dallas on Monday. So expect a strong effort.
01-25-18	SMU -5.5 v. Connecticut		52-63	Loss	-115	11 h 57 m	Show
UConn has failed to cover in 22 of its last 30 home games and I don't like its chances here. SMU have the sixth stingiest defense in the country holding foes to 62 points a game. The combination of the Mustangs' defense and outstanding outside shooting should mean a double-digit victory. UConn just can't concentrate on one SMU player because every Mustang starter averages double figures. The Huskies are down second-leading scorer Terry Larrier. He's out with a fractured sinus wall.
01-24-18	Temple +14 v. Cincinnati		42-75	Loss	-110	15 h 56 m	Show
Temple has revenge for a narrow 55-53 loss to Cincinnati earlier this month. The Bearcats won that game with a late basket. So this spread is out of whack especially given Temple's quality defense that gives up less than 69 points a game. I envision another defensive struggle here so this many points should be more than enough for the Owls to cover. The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bearcats.
01-24-18	Suns +7.5 v. Pacers		101-116	Loss	-105	14 h 38 m	Show
This point spread is too high considering the situation. The Suns have covered all three game of their current road trip so far and should be motivated for this matchup since the Pacers embarrassed them at home just 10 days ago. Despite that loss, the Suns still have covered 11 of the last 14 in the series, including going 6-1 at Indiana. This is Indiana's first home game following a five-game road swing that concluded with the the Pacers upsetting the Spurs on Sunday night. Myles Turner, the Pacers' best big man, has been out with a right elbow injury and is questionable here. The Pacers are a bit fat and happy being back home following their highly-satisfying victory against San Antonio. The Pacers also have a much more important game on deck when they play the Cavaliers on Friday.
01-24-18	Nebraska +1.5 v. Rutgers		60-54	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
After facing Ohio State and Michigan, Nebraska drops down in class here. The Cornhuskers upset the Wolverines and nearly did the same to the Buckeyes. The Cornhuskers have revenge motivation for a 65-64 loss to Rutgers from last season. Nebraska had defeated the Scarlet Knights five straight times before then. Both teams are improved. But I'm going to ride the Cornhuskers, who are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
01-24-18	Mercer v. East Tennessee State UNDER 134	Top	75-84	Loss	-110	13 h 7 m	Show
The Mercer Bears lost their top scorer, Ria'n Holland, two games ago to a wrist injury. They played their first game without him this past Saturday and lost 70-66 in overtime to NC Greensboro. The Bears scored 55 points in regulation No Mercer player scored more than 11 points in that game. The Bears are really hurting on the offensive end without Holland, who is leading the team in scoring at 19 points a game. The next highest scorer for Mercer averages 10.6 points per game. The Under has cashed 11 of the last 13 times Mercer has lost during its previous game. East Tennessee State ranks in the top-25 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Buccaneers have held heir last four opponents to an average of 54.2 points a game.
01-23-18	Celtics -4 v. Lakers	Top	107-108	Loss	-110	21 h 4 m	Show
Technically speaking the Celtics haven't won in the United States since Jan. 6. They did beat the 76ers in London. But Boston hasn't won since losing three straight games, all at home. It's the first time Boston has dropped three consecutive games all season. Now the Celtics head West to warm weather and to find their groove. I see that happening here against the Lakers. I have a lot of confidence in Brad Stevens. The Celtics meet the Clippers on Wednesday followed by games at Golden State on Saturday and Denver on Monday. Those will not be easy games. So this is the matchup the Celtics need to win to get out of their funk. The Lakers have been playing better. But this is a lottery team that has backcourt injuries. Lonzo Ball is out with a knee injury and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has missed the past two games with an Achilles injury. That's LA's starting backcourt. The Lakers are 2-8 without Ball, their point guard. Boston has covered 71 percent of its road games this season. Kyrie Irving is back so the Celtics are healthy. Boston rolled past the Lakers, 107-96, in the earlier meeting this season on Nov. 8. The Celtics achieved that 11-point victory despite not having Al Horford and losing Jayson Tatum for the second half because of an ankle injury.
01-23-18	Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 142.5		70-75	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
Texas Tech has gone Under in six of its eight home games this season. The Red Raiders rank in the top-five in defensive efficiency and should be playing intense defense after getting blown out at Iowa State this past Saturday. Oklahoma State has tightened up its defense. Both teams rank among the bottom four in the Big 12 in terms of tempo.
01-22-18	Suns v. Bucks -4.5		105-109	Loss	-110	10 h 19 m	Show
First the bad news. Giannis Antetokonumpo isn't going to play. Now the good news, the point spread is greatly reduced because of that and the Bucks still should be able to take care of business against a bottom-feeder they have dominated. Milwaukee has defeated Phoenix five consecutive times, including 113-107 at Phoenix on Nov. 22. The Bucks didn't have Antetokounmpo for that game either. But former Sun Eric Bledsoe and Kris Middleton made up for Antetokonumpo's absence by scoring a combined 70 points. The Bucks will have Malcolm Brogdon back after he missed the Bucks' last game. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode going 1-4 in their last five games. Their losses during this time frame have come to teams much better than the Suns - Warriors, Heat twice and 76ers. Phoenix, by contrast, is fat and happy coming off a 108-100 upset road victory against the Nuggets. The Suns had dropped their previous three road matchups by a combined 44 points. Phoenix has failed to cover five of the last six times following a straight-up victory.
01-22-18	76ers v. Grizzlies +3.5		101-105	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
The 76ers are riding an impressive three-game win streak beating three of the best Eastern Conference teams - the Raptors, Celtics and Bucks. The 76ers host the Bulls on Wednesday. But first is this nonconference matchup against Memphis. The 76ers are talented. They also are young, possibly short-handed in the backcourt with JJ Redick out and Jerryd Bayless questionable due to a sore wrist and excited like the rest of Philadelphia about the Eagles reaching the Super Bowl following Sunday's upset victory against the Vikings. So the 76ers may lack the focus necessary to win a road game against a top-five defensive team. The Grizzlies are under-the-radar. They are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They also are 5-0-1 ATS during their past six home contests and have won six of their last eight at FedEx Forum. Memphis also has dominated this series beating the 76ers nine straight times.
01-22-18	Jazz -135 v. Hawks	Top	90-104	Loss	-135	12 h 20 m	Show
One of the most difficult schedules in the league and Rudy Gobert missing 26 games has contributed to the Jazz's disappointing 19-27 record. But now Gobert is back and the schdule has lightened up for Utah. The Jazz have won two of their last three while averaging 120 points during this span, their highest three-game offensive span of the season. Utah just played one of its best offensive games of the season in beating the Clippers, 125-113, this past Saturday. I'm seeing a buy sign on Utah - at least against this opponent. The Hawks are 13-32 on the season. That's tied with Sacramento for the worst mark in the league. The Hawks are better at home, but still have lost 13 of 22 games at Philips Arena. The Jazz are 4 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So this becomes almost a must-win spot for Utah considering the lowly caliber of opponent.
01-21-18	Nets v. Pistons UNDER 209		101-100	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
There are a lot of ingredients here that point to this game going Under the total. Let's start with the situation. It's a day game. That's often a plus for the Under. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, losers of four in a row. It's the Nets' revenge game of the year. They suffered their worst home loss of the season 11 days ago losing to the Pistons, 114-80. Brooklyn was in a vulnerable spot for that game having just taken the Raptors to overtime before losing by one point the night before. Their energy was lacking. It won't be here. Now let's talk current form. The Nets have slowed things down ranking in the middle of the pack in tempo during the last two weeks. Brooklyn ranks last in offensive efficiency during this span, too. However, the Nets have played stronger defense in January than they did earlier in the season. If you discount that bad performance against the Pistons, the Nets have held five of their last nine opponents to fewer than 101 points. Only two opponents in the last 10 games have scored more than 107 points on the Nets during regulation. The Nets just held the Heat to six points under their season average in a 101-95 home win this past Friday. The Pistons rank 25th in scoring. They are a bottom-10 team, too, in field goal percentage and free throw shooting. Now let's discuss matchup. There are key players back from injury who are pluses for the Under. The Nets have back DeMarre Carroll and D'Angelo Rusell. Both are underrated defensive players. Russell played 14 minutes against the Heat after missing the previous 32 games following knee surgery. He was rusty shooting-wise, as expected, but provided a defensive spark. Detroit has reserve sparkplug Stanley Johnson back from a hip injury. Johnson is a stiff on offense, but a good defender.
01-20-18	Mavs v. Blazers OVER 208	Top	108-117	Win	100	16 h 18 m	Show
Since the end of Christmas both Dallas and Portland have become strong offensive, rather than defensive, teams. But the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught up to this. Dallas has reached triple digits in eight of its last nine games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of those nine games. Portland is on a streak of 10 straight triple digit scoring games. The Trail Blazers have scored 110 or more points in eight of those 10 games. During this time span, both teams are ranking in the top-five in offensive efficiency and in the bottom-10 in defensive efficiency. Increased tempo and strong guard play has contributed to this. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. has started to live up to his hype, while the Trail Blazers are finding extra minutes for Shabazz Napier joining sharpshooters Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum in the backcourt giving Portland an effective small-ball lineup.
01-20-18	Raptors v. Wolves -3		109-115	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
The Timberwolves are in stop-the-pain mode and catch the Raptors off a huge, physical 86-83 home win against the Spurs last night. That was a hugely satisfying victory for the Raptors. It's hard to imagine they are going to be as hungry for this non-conference matchup as the Timberwolves, losers of two in a row. Minnesota hasn't lost three consecutive games all season. But the Timberwolves are off back-to-back road losses to the Magic and Rockets. They looked past the Magic and paid the price. There's no shame in losing to the Rockets at Houston especially with James Harden back in the Rockets' lineup like he was for that game. The Timberwolves are 18-6 at Target Center this season. Their last six home games have all been double-digit victories, including wins against the Cavaliers. Thunder and Trail Blazers.
01-20-18	Montana v. Montana State +7		67-52	Loss	-105	9 h 27 m	Show
Granted Montana is playing well. However, I want the home underdog going for me in this state rivalry matchup. Montana State is 6-1 at home this season. The Bobcats have won and covered in their last three home games. The Bobcats defeated Montana, 78-69, when they hosted the Grizzlies last season.
01-20-18	Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs		148-124	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
Lot of superstars with a lot of egos. They're all going to be together here in this nationally televised day game. This is just the fifth time the Thunder will be underdogs this season. They are 3-1 ATS as 'dogs. Oklahoma City has gone 21-13 since opening 4-7. The Thunder have won three in a row. Cleveland is 1-4 in its last five games and has been terrible as a favorite failing to cover 12 of the last 13 times in that role. Oklahoma City has the far superior defense and just got back defensive ace Andre Roberson. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday so their energy and pride levels should be off the charts.
01-19-18	Pacers -125 v. Lakers		86-99	Loss	-125	12 h 39 m	Show
Thanks to Victor Oladipo's All-Star-caliber season, the Pacers have reached mid-level respectability. The Lakers are back to being a bottom level type team losting 12 of their last 17 games. The Pacers played flat in a 100-86 road loss to Portland last night. But they were 5-1 SU and ATS in their previous six games. It's not too much to ask the Pacers to beat the Lakers especially considering all of LA's key injuries. The Lakers will be missing their starting backcourt of Lonzo Ball (knee) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Achilles). Ball leads the Lakers in assists and rebounds. In addition, the Lakers also could be missing their two top scorers, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram. Both are banged up. The Lakers' depth isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for so many missing starters.
01-19-18	Spurs +6.5 v. Raptors		83-86	Win	100	7 h 13 m	Show
No Kawhi Leonard here. Rudy Gay reamins out, too. Still, this is too many points for the Raptors to lay to an elite team. Gregg Popovich is an "A" coach and he has a strong bench. Even without Leonard, the Spurs have gone 25-12 in the games he's missed. Toronto hasn't been playing that well losing two of its past three games and going 2-4 ATS in its last six. Only once in their last six games have the Raptors won by more than five points.
01-19-18	Indiana +15.5 v. Michigan State	Top	57-85	Loss	-108	17 h 31 m	Show
There are a lot of peaks and valleys during the long college basketball season. Right now Indiana is playing well and Michigan State isn't. The Hoosiers have won five of their last six, including their last three. Indiana is playing tremendous defense, getting strong play from Juwan Morgan and rebounding production from its guards. Michigan State would be 0-3 in its last three games if not for a home overtime victory against Rutgers. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS the past seven times playing an above .500 opponent. They are going to look to run more being at home. Indiana, though, ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin at plus 3.7. Michigan State, by contrast, ranks near the bottom in turnover margin at minus 3.2. The Hooisers have covered the past five times they've met opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They have stepped up their play enough where they can be trusted to hang in on the road against the Spartans especially taking this big of a number.
01-18-18	Pacers v. Blazers OVER 213		86-100	Loss	-110	15 h 16 m	Show
The perception is Portland is a strong defensive team and a below average offensive club. The season statistics bear that out where the Trail Blazers rank eighth defensively and 20th in scoring. But since the start of January those perceptions have turned wrong. The Trail Blazers have become a top-five offense in terms of points per possession and their defense ranks 26th since the calendar turned to 2018. Star point guard Damian Lillard is close to 100 percent. He's averaged 26 points in his last four games while shooting 50.7 percent from the floor. The Trail Blazers have started to play more small ball going with three guards - Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Shabazz Napier, who shined in Lillard's absence. This means increased tempo. The Pacers remain without their rim protector Myles Turner, who ranks second in the NBA in blocked shots. The Pacers have been playing well despite the absence of Turner. Indiana is averaging 111 points per game game during its last six games. Victor Oladipo has emerged as a star ranking 12th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.
01-18-18	Illinois-Chicago v. Youngstown State +3		92-78	Loss	-105	6 h 45 m	Show
The oddsmaker has the wrong favorite here. Illinois-Chicago should not be a conference road favorite. The Flames have won only once in eight away contests this season. Youngstown State's record is somewhat misleading when you consider it played the 66th most-difficult non-league schedule. The Penguins' non-conference schedule was muich more difficult than the Flames. That should pay off here. The Penguins also have covered in their last six Horizon League games.
01-17-18	Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 148		77-73	Loss	-115	20 h 18 m	Show
Two strong defenses square off here in what should be an intense conference matchup. San Diego State is No. 1 in the Mountain West Conference in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Aztecs could catch the Bulldogs minus two of their three best guards, including their point guard and most accurate 3-point shooter. Both have eligibility problems that need to be fixed.
01-17-18	Fresno State v. San Diego State -7	Top	77-73	Loss	-105	21 h 35 m	Show
San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off. San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs. Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups.
01-17-18	Knicks v. Grizzlies OVER 202		99-105	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
The Knicks haven't been playing much defense surrendering triple digits in nine of their last 10 games. Sparked by the return of Tim Hardaway Jr., though, the Knicks have been producing offensively. New York has scored 103 or more points in its last seven games. The Grizzlies just scored 123 points in their last game and are playing more up-tempo. There's a chance Marc Gasol doesn't play due to illness, but I still like this total to go Over based on how poorly the Knicks are playing defense and how well Memphis looked offensively in its last game with crisp passing and unselfish play. The Over has cashed 12 of the last 16 times the Knicks have visited the Grizzlies.
01-17-18	Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 136		65-79	Loss	-115	15 h 40 m	Show
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here. Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.
01-17-18	Duquesne +6 v. St. Louis		63-76	Loss	-103	8 h 35 m	Show
The marketplace has been slow to see the full improvement with Duquesne this season. The Dukes rank among the top three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference in defense and I believe they can hang with St. Louis. They have won and covered four of their last five games. Both teams operate at a slow tempo, which is another plus for the 'dog in this mid-size range.
01-16-18	Drake +6.5 v. Northern Iowa		54-68	Loss	-105	8 h 40 m	Show
I like backing underdogs in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference especially here with much-improved Drake. The Bulldogs have won and covered five of their last six games. I see them hanging in against Northern Iowa. Drake has a good offense, averaging more than 77 points, and its defense played well in an 81-65 home win against Evansville in its last game. Northern Iowa often is overpriced going 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. That's the case again here.
01-16-18	Wolves v. Magic +8		102-108	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Fresh off their first 5-0 homestand since 2001, the Timberwolves get ready to face a big road test against the Rockets on Thursday. But first Minnesota must play at Orlando today. It's going to be difficult for the talented - and youthful - Timberwolves to take the Magic serious. Orlando has lost seven in a row. I smell a dangerous situation for the Timberwolves here. I suspect Minnesota is going to be too overconfident for this game. Orlando is more competitive now that its two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, are healthy. The Magic have lost by seven points or fewer in five of their last seven defeats. The Magic have had three full days to get ready for this matchup having last played on Friday. Minnesota is a sparkling 23-6 versus Western Conference foes. However, the Timberwolves are a perplexing 6-10 against Eastern Conference teams. They have a bad history, too, at Orlando losing eight of the past nine times there. The Magic have covered eight of the last 10 games against the Timberwolves. Minnesota won by just six when they hosted the Magic earlier this season.
01-15-18	Maryland +7 v. Michigan		67-68	Win	100	9 h 58 m	Show
Maryland has had Michigan's number winning five of the last six times the teams have met, including a victory in Ann Arbor last season. The Terrapins catch the Wolverines off a huge 82-72 win against rival Michigan State this past Saturday. I doubt the Wolverines can regain their full intensity for this matchup following that huge win. Maryland is out for redemption having suffered a 91-69 loss to Ohio State on Thursday.
01-15-18	Lakers v. Grizzlies -138	Top	114-123	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
The Lakers are fat and happy after opening their road trip with an overtime victory against the Mavericks this past Saturday. The Grizzlies have been playing better. They are are 3-2 in their five home games, but off an 87-78 road loss to Denver. That game was on Friday and ended the Grizzlies' string of six straight games of scoring triple-digits. The Grizzlies were idle during the weekend and should be ready for this early-start MLK Day matchup. Memphis is the stronger defensive club. The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers the past six times at home. The Lakers are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They won't be helped by an earlier start time than normal for them. LA also is banged-up as both Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram are questionable.
01-15-18	Knicks v. Nets UNDER 213		119-104	Loss	-110	3 h 53 m	Show
Both teams carry a high fatigue rating that isn't going to be helped playing at this early start time. That means tired jump shooters. The Knicks are playing for the third time in four days, including going into overtime on Sunday. Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 44 minutes yesterday. The Nets also are playing for the third time in four days. The Nets have gone Under in seven of their last eight games. This is a rivalry game, too, so the defensive intensity should be up.
01-15-18	Hornets v. Pistons -150		118-107	Loss	-150	4 h 27 m	Show
Charlotte isn't a good road team. The Hornets have lost 13 of their 18 away contests. Charlotte is 2-11 versus .500 or better clubs when playing on the road. The Pistons are 13-5 at home. Detroit is in a strong scheduling advantage here since this is an early start because of Martin Luther King Day. The Hornets ran out of gas on Saturday night after also playing on Friday. Now they're playing a very early Monday game making this their third game in four days.
01-15-18	Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 205		118-107	Loss	-105	4 h 26 m	Show
Charlotte is averaging just 95 points in its last two games. The Hornets face a severe fatigue factor here playing for the third time in four days, which is made worse by this being a very early daytime start because of Martin Luther King Day. So the Hornets are not going to have interest in running and their perimeter game could be off because of tired legs. This likely means a lot of standing around on offense watching Dwight Howard hog the ball inside and miss free throws. He's shooting less than 53 percent from the foul line. The Pistons rank fifth defensively. Detroit has held its past four opponents at home to an average of 91 points per game. The teams met early in the season and the Pistons beat the Hornets, 102-90, at home.
01-14-18	Pacers v. Suns +4		120-97	Loss	-105	13 h 30 m	Show
Granted, asking the Suns to cover a short number carries a certain risk. Phoenix has some young talent, but is in clear rebuild mode. Still, the spot, situation and history set up well for the Suns to stay close - if not pull the outright upset. The Pacers won't have center Myles Turner, their best big man and second-best player next to Victor Oladipo. He'll miss a third straight game due to an elbow injury. Indiana takes to the road for the first time in 11 days fat and happy after overcoming a 22-point deficit to defeat the Cavaliers, 97-95, on Friday night. The Pacers have lost their last three away matchups falling by a combined 57 points to the Bucks, Bulls and Pistons. This marks only the Pacers' third game versus a Western Conference opponent since Dec. 14. Indiana lost to Dallas by four points at home and were blown out by Minnesota at home by 17 points the past two times it faced a Western Conference foe. The last time Indiana played a road game against a Western Conference team was way back on November 29. The Suns aren't as good as the Timberwolves and Mavericks. But they are home where they have covered five of the last six times against the Pacers. All together, the Suns have covered 11 of the last 13 times versus the Pacers. Phoenix also should be motivated after a 112-95 home loss to Houston this past Friday. The Suns were short-handed in the backcourt, but expect to have back point guard Isaiah Canaan and swingman Josh Jackson. The return of Canaan frees up rising superstar Devin Booker to play other positions besides point guard setting up favorable matchups. The Suns have responded well following a blowout home loss covering 72 percent of the time in their next game during the past 27 instances. They also are 6-1-2 ATS the past nine times after not covering the spread in their previous game.
01-14-18	St. Joe's v. Massachusetts OVER 146		69-72	Loss	-110	5 h 3 m	Show
St. Joe's is averaging 83.6 points during its last three games while stepping up the pace. The Over has cashed the last six times St. Joe's has played. The over has cashed in four of UMass's last five games. UMass has allowed at least 79 points in three of its last four games. I'm looking for an uptempo, offensive-minded game here.
01-13-18	Florida International v. UTEP OVER 137	Top	68-72	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today. UTEP is giving up an average of 81.6 points during its last three games. Florida International is playing at a fast pace this season. The Over is 15-6-1 in the Panthers' last 22 games.
01-13-18	Stanford +4 v. Washington		73-64	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
I'm going to take the points in this battle of two surprise, overachieving teams. Stanford has won and covered three in a row. Washington already has surpassed last season's Pac-12 win total. The Huskies, though, have been fortunate going 9-1 in games decided by less than 10 points. The Huskies have covered just one of their last eight home contests.
01-13-18	Thunder -120 v. Hornets		101-91	Win	100	12 h 5 m	Show
The Thunder are in stop-the-pain mode losing three in a row. The latest loss was to Minnesota, which has emerged as an up-and-coming power. Now the Thunder drop down in class facing a non-playoff Eastern Conference team, Charlotte. Oklahoma City holds a huge talent edge here. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday while the Hornets beat Utah, 99-88, last night. The Jazz weren't sharp after upsetting the Wizards as a 7 1/2-point 'dog in their previous game. The last time Charlotte played without rest was Dec. 27 at Golden State. The Hornets lost that game by 25 points to the Warriors. The Thunder have covered 10 of their last 14 times when playing on two days rest.
01-13-18	Evansville v. Drake UNDER 133		65-81	Loss	-110	8 h 55 m	Show
I like going Under in Missouri Valley Conference games. The pace is slower and teams are more deliberate taking ample time off the shot clock. This matchup follows that pattern. Evanville is one of the more methodical teams in the country. This is going to bother Drake. The Under has cashed in the Purple Aces' last four games.
01-13-18	Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 216		107-101	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
Not only is this the Lakers' first road game in 12 days, but it is an extremely early start at 11 a.m. Pacific time. That's a major plus for the Under. So is the way the Lakers have been playing defense. LA held the Kings to 86 points on Tuesday in a 99-86 victory. The Lakers followed that up by defeating the Spurs, 93-81, on Thursday. The Spurs had a number of starters out, but do possess excellent depth. The Lakers held San Antonio to 40.8 percent shooting from the floor while forcing 20 turnovers. Dallas ranks 10th in the league defensively holding foes to 104.4 points per game. The Mavericks held the Magic and Knicks to 100 and 99 points, respectively, during their last two home games. This matchup is going to be heavily influenced by a pair of rookie point guards, Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith Jr. Ball is shooting 35.8 percent from the field. Smith has made just 39.4 percent of his field goals.
01-12-18	Nets +3.5 v. Hawks	Top	110-105	Win	100	15 h 33 m	Show
Should the worst team in the NBA be laying points, especially this many, to any opponent? My answer is no. Brooklyn is four games better than Atlanta in the standings. It's not a fluke. The Nets are the better team. The spot is ripe, too, for the Nets to defeat the Hawks. Atlanta is returning home following a five-game, nine day road swing fat and happy after upsetting the Nuggets in Denver two nights ago. Focus could be a real problem for the youthful, rebuiilding Hawks especially knowing nine of their next 10 games will be played at Philips Arena their home base. By contrast, the Nets should be extremely fired-up after being embarrassed at home by the Pistons, 114-80, Wednesday night. That was the Nets' worst home loss of the season. Brooklyn had been below-the-radar prior to that loss having lost by only one point in overtime to the Raptors in their previous game and coming within five points or fewer during their past five games before that. The Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the league at 25-16, including covering six in a row until the Detroit debacle. The Nets have covered 73 percent of their last 15 away games, too. Brookly still aspires to be a playoff team, at this point, being six games out of the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks have no such aspirations.
01-12-18	Monmouth v. Niagara -120		77-78	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
The buy sign is back on Niagara after the Purple Eagles won consecutive road games against Siena and Marist. I'm not impressed with Monmouth, which is 5-10 on the season and 2-7 on the road. Niagara has covered five of the past six times versus foes with a losing record.
01-11-18	Clippers v. Kings +1.5		121-115	Loss	-104	10 h 0 m	Show
Take away Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic and the Clippers shouldn't be a road favorite against the Kings especially carrying a heavy fatigue like they do for this matchup. The Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days, third time in five days and on back-to-back nights. They are in a huge letdown spot after stunning the Warriors, 125-106, at Golden State last night. Lou Williams was the hero for the Clippers against the Warriors scoring 50 points. Williams is having a fantastic season. He's the leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year honors. Williams, however, has a history of not being nearly as effective when his minutes go up. Williams has logged 76 minutes in his past two games spanning the past three days. It wouldn't shock me if his shooting was off today - and the Clippers have no other consistent scorers to rely on with their many injuries. The Kings are more respectable with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup. Fox scored 18 points and dished off seven assists when the Kings defeated the Nuggets by eight points at home three games ago. The Clippers and Kings meet again Saturday at Staples Center so the Kings definitely want to get the home victory.
01-11-18	NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 156.5		80-78	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
NC Wilmington averages 80.3 points per game. Elon averages 74.5 points a game. But what makes this a strong Over play is both team's defenses are terrible, especially Wilmington's, and both teams have been playing at a faster pace since league play. Wilmington ranks 344th defensively surrendering 85.9 points a game. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in many defensive statistical categories. They have given up an average of 90.6 points in their last three games. Elon can take advantage with its solid outside shooting. The Over has cashed in 13 of Wilmington's last 16 games while the Over has cashed in Elon's past seven home games.
01-11-18	Celtics -130 v. 76ers		114-103	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
I'm happily surprised to see this line open so low. Boston definitely is the superior team. The Celtics have proven that during the first two meetings this season beating the 76ers by an average of 10.5 points in sweeping both games one of which was played in Philadelphia. Both teams are in good form. But the Celtics have won six in a row. Boston leads the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Celtics have the top point spread mark in the NBA at 26-15-2, will have the best player on the court in Kyrie Irving and the better coach, Brad Stevens. Al Horford missed Boston's last game with a knee injury, but is expected to play while the 76ers will be mimus backup center Amir Johnson due to illness.
01-10-18	LSU v. Arkansas -9		75-54	Loss	-105	15 h 47 m	Show
Arkansas is in stop-the-pain mode following road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But now the Razorbacks return home where they have won the past 11 times dating back to last season, covering five of their last six at Bud Walton Arena. They catch LSU in a letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 69-68 road upset of then No. 11 ranked Texas A&M. LSU achieved this victory by coming back from a five-point deficit with 12.4 seconds left. LSU immediately lost following big wins against Michigan in the Maui Invitational, Houston at home and Memphis on the road. This is a pattern with the Tigers, who are 6-15-1 ATS following a victory. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage. They hold a tremendous home-court advantage.
01-10-18	Magic +10.5 v. Bucks		103-110	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
I understand it's difficult to get behind Orlando, which has lost 14 of its last 15 and is 3-12 ATS during this span. I will point out the Magic led both the Cavaliers and Mavericks at halftime during their last two games and that the Magic have their two best scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, healthy again. But much of this handicap is a fade on the Bucks. Only twice since December - a span of 17 games - have the Bucks won by double-digits. Milwaukee has failed to cover during its past seven games versus opponents with a losing record. The Bucks also host Golden State on Friday in their next game. Milwaukee then goes on the road to take on the Heat and Wizards Sunday and Monday. So the backdoor should swing wide open for the Magic in case the Bucks do build up a lead. There would be no reason for Jason Kidd to play his starters big minutes here especially super star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with sore knees and even recently sat out a game.
01-10-18	Mavs v. Hornets -6.5	Top	115-111	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
Charlotte is poised to make a move. The Hornets are coming off a 3-1 West Coast trip highlighted by a victory against the Warriors. Charlotte is feeling confident and rested having last played on Friday. The Hornets are just 15-23, but they also have played the toughest schedule in the NBA in terms of opponent's winning percentage. Charlotte's schedule lightens up starting here. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in eight days and without rest. The Mavericks just defeated the Magic, 114-99, at home last night. Dallas has beaten some good teams - Spurs, Wizards, Raptors, Bucks and Thunder - but is 9-20 the past 29 times when facing opponents with a losing record, including 4-11 during the last 15 instances. The Hornets average 105 points a game. Dallas is 3-20 when giving up triple-digits. The Mavericks are vulnerable to Dwight Howard being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Howard ranks fourth in the league in rebounding.
01-10-18	UCF v. Connecticut +1		53-62	Win	102	6 h 3 m	Show
There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. Central Florida plays great defense, but their offense is woeful especially from beyond the arc. So the Huskies can pack in their defense and get away with it.
01-09-18	Heat v. Raptors -3.5		90-89	Loss	-110	4 h 45 m	Show
The Raptors have won five in a row averaging 121.8 points per game during this span. Toronto has been dominant at home with a 14-1 record. Yet the line is much shorter than normal because Kyle Lowry is out. I believe the marketplace has overreacted to this injury. The Raptors are much better than the Heat. They've defeated the Heat the past five times in Toronto, too. DeMar DeRozan, who is on fire, is the Raptors' key player not Lowry. Miami has a couple of injuries, too, with Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow both out.
01-09-18	Ball State v. Ohio -1	Top	75-68	Loss	-110	13 h 38 m	Show
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery.
01-09-18	Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's	Top	69-66	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup.
01-08-18	Bucks v. Pacers OVER 214		96-109	Loss	-105	2 h 45 m	Show
The Bucks are averaging 117.2 points during their last four games, including putting up 122 points on these same Pacers this past Wednesday in a 122-101 victory. The Pacers didn't have their leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, for that game. Oladipo returned from injury on Saturday and the Pacers scored 125 points in burying the Bulls. Both teams have above average offenses and Oladipo makes the Pacers far more dangerous on offense. It's also short revenge for the Pacers. The Bucks have been a huge Over team going above the total 18-7-1 in their last 26 games.
01-07-18	Hawks v. Lakers -3.5		113-132	Win	100	12 h 12 m	Show
Luke Walton is feeling heat as the Lakers have lost nine in a row. Clearly, it's stop-the-pain mode in LA. Luckily, the Lakers have the perfect opponent to do just that as they host the Hawks. Atlanta is in total rebuild mode. The Hawks are at their worst on the road where their record is 3-17. The Hawks' last away victory occurred on Dec. 2 against the Nets. The Lakers are back to full strength with Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez healthy. They hold a talent edge on the Hawks. Atlanta has one good player, Dennis Schroder, and he's in a shooting slump. Schroder is 12-for-31 in his last two games from the floor. He has shot much worse on the road this season at 41.2 percent from the field.
01-07-18	Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 149.5		73-91	Loss	-105	10 h 30 m	Show
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup and a slower pace from Maryland. The Hawkeyes are in stop-the-pain mode, while the Terrapins are coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to Michigan State. Iowa can take advantage of Maryland's lack of ballhandling skills. The Terrapins are still adjusting to the loss of forward Justin Jackson, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. The teams have gone Under the total during four of their last five meetings.
01-06-18	Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5		85-66	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams. This is just Gonzaga's fourth true road game of the season. The Bulldogs are fat and happy after a 30-point blowout road win against Pepperdine. They are 2-9 ATS, however, following a point spread cover.
01-06-18	Pelicans v. Wolves -125		98-116	Win	100	14 h 12 m	Show
Minnesota is back from a bad East Coast trip that resulted in a 98-97 loss to the Nets on Wednesday and 91-84 defeat to the Celtics last night. Now the Timberwolves return home in stop-the-pain mode. They haven't lost three games in a row all season. Minnesota is 11-1 at Target Center this season and 20-6 versus Western Conference foes. The Timberwolves are 2-0 versus the Pelicans this season winning both times in New Orleans, 104-98, on Nov. 1 and 120-102 on Nov. 29. Karl-Anthony Towns helps off-set the inside dominance of DeMarcus Couins and Anthony Davis, while Jimmy Butler gives the Timberwolves the best non-big man on the floor. Butler is having another All-Star caliber season scoring 20 or more points in nine of his last 10 games. The Pelicans have played just one winning opponent during their past six games and that was Miami.
01-06-18	Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 218		98-116	Loss	-110	14 h 3 m	Show
The Pelicans are well rested and should have lots of energy. The Timberwolves are not strong defensively inside so Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should be able to score plenty. The Pelicans score the fourth-most points per game in the NBA, but are 28th defensively. Minnesota ranks seventh in scoring. The Timberwolves have scored at least 106 points in 10 of their last 13 games. Jimmy Butler is riding a hot streak of scoring 20 or more points in nine of his last 10 games. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in defensive class after just playing the Celtics.
01-06-18	Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145		69-85	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
Kent State isn't a very good shooting tean. That's reflected in the Golden Flashes going Under the total in 13 of their last 19 games. Central Michigan is a strong defensive club ranking 27th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 64.3 per game. A big reason why the Chippewas have a strong defensive club is because they play at a slow pace. So I don't see a fast tempo in this matchup, which makes the Under very attractive.
01-06-18	VCU +3.5 v. La Salle		80-74	Win	100	5 h 41 m	Show
The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU. The Explorers are coming off a tough game, too, at Rhode Island. They could be without their leading scorer, B.J. Johnson. He is dealing with an ankle injury.
01-05-18	Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 206	Top	102-100	Loss	-108	14 h 8 m	Show
The rankings show Memphis to be 29th in scoring. But the rankings don't reflect current form. The Grizzlies are much improved offensively. Sparked by a great season from Tyreke Evans, the Grizzlies are averaging 111.3 points in their last six games. Evans has scored at least 20 points in eight of the past 10 games. This is a rare nationally televised game for the Grizzlies so they should be motivated to put on a show. The Wizards are finally at full strength with John Wall and Otto Porter back to being 100 percent. They've helped Washington to win three in a row. The Wizards are averaging 118.7 points during their win streak. Going back to their last six games, the Wizards are averaging 116 points. This also marks Washington's lone road matchup during a nine-game span. The Wizards have surrendered an average of 116.6 points in their last three road contests.
01-05-18	Niagara +1.5 v. Siena		84-76	Win	100	9 h 35 m	Show
Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. Niagara has a winning spread mark on the road. The Purple Eagles covered both of their games last season versus Siena.
01-05-18	Wisconsin v. Rutgers +2.5		60-64	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury. The Badgers haven't played well on the road going 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 away contests. Rutgers, by contrast, has covered six of its last seven home games. Rutgers is in stop the pain mode having lost three in a row. This is a good spot for the Scarlet Knights to end that losing skid.
01-04-18	Thunder -120 v. Clippers	Top	127-117	Win	100	14 h 32 m	Show
The Thunder have covered in four of their last five games against the Clippers, including beating them, 120-111, at home on Nov. 10. Oklahoma City has picked up its play winning 13 of 18 since December as Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are all better in sync with each other now. The Thunder played one of their best games in beating the Lakers, 133-96, last night at Staples Center. That's the venue for this matchup so no travel is involved for the Thunder. The Clippers are playing better, too, but have just met five straight sub .500 teams, including the 12-26 Grizzlies twice. This is a step up in class for the Clippers and they still have key injuries with Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari out and Austin Rivers questionable.
01-04-18	Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 138		55-53	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
I really like Cincinnati's defense, which is the fourth-stingiest in the nation giving up 59.1 points per game. The Bearcats also rank sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Cincinnati has been a strong Under play when on the road. The Under has cashed a whopping 75 percent of the time during their last 64 away contests. Temple is respectable defensively, too, and catch the Bearcats down backup point guard Cane Broome, who was averaging nearly 10 points a game and three assists per game
01-04-18	Warriors -4 v. Rockets		124-114	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Until proven otherwise, I see the world champion Warriors as the best team in basketball. When the Warriors really want to win, they win. That should be the case here with the Warriors facing their strongest challenger in the Western Conference. I'd like the Rockets' chances far more if they had James Harden. But they don't. He's out with a hamstring injury. The Rockets didn't need him in burying the Magic, 116-98, at Orlando last night. I can't see the Rockets, though, hanging real close to the Warriors without Harden. Stephen Curry is back for the Warriors and he's hot making 24 of 36 shots from the field in two games since returning to the lineup after being out for 11 games. The Warriors also were in action last night, beating the Mavericks, 125-122. The Warriors have the shorter trip to Houston than the Rockets do coming from central Florida. Golden State also has the better bench. Until defeating the hapless Magic and Lakers, Houston had dropped five in a row. This will be just their second game of the season without Harden, who leads the NBA in scoring and is third in assists. Golden State has won its last eight road games and is 11-2 versus the Rockets during its past 13 regular-season meetings, including beating the Rockets six consecutive times at Toyota Center.
01-03-18	Rockets v. Magic UNDER 221	Top	116-98	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
This will be the Rockets' first game this season without James Harden. There hasn't been a more devastating offensive player in the NBA than Harden, who is averaging a league-best 32.3 points and 9.1 assists. There will be an adjustment period for Houston as Harden probably is going to miss a couple of weeks after suffering a hamstring injury this past Sunday against the Lakers. Chris Paul and Clint Capela have returned from their injuries. But they've only been back for a short time so there's a get-in-sync factor that is even more pronounced now that Harden is sidelined. Orlando is a below average offensive team that was just held to 95 points by the Nets this past Monday. Brooklyn ranks 26th defensively. If you discount the 111 points the Magic put up on banged-up Miami, Orlando is averaging 96.6 points in its last six games.
01-03-18	East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 131.5	Top	67-65	Loss	-110	14 h 3 m	Show
Yes, this is a low total. But it's not low enough given how bad these teams are offensively. East Carolina ranks 332nd in scoring averaging 65.6 points. South Florida is even worse averaging 63.8 points. What makes this worthy of an Under play is not just these team's lack of scoring, but tempo. Each team plays a slow-paced game and commits a lot of turnovers. Both are much stronger on defense than they are on offense. South Florida is even more defensive-minded at home where the Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times.
01-02-18	Nebraska +8.5 v. Northwestern		70-55	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena. The Wildcats also may be without their third leading scorer, Bryan McIntosh. He's nursing an injured knee. Nebraska has won three in a row. The Cornhuskers are averaging 75.8 points a game. That's their highest scoring average in more than 20 years.
01-02-18	Hawks v. Suns -125	Top	103-104	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA and it's because they are 3-15 on the road. Atlanta is 1-10 in its last 11 away games with the lone victory during this time frame occurring versus the Nets. I don't think it's too much ask of the Suns to defeat the Hawks at home. The Suns have covered four of the last five at home against Atlanta and are playing well winning five of their last eight games. The Suns are a much better team with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Booker is ninth in the league in scoring at 24.9 points per game. It's not just his scoring, but his play-making and ability to create space for his teammates that make him so valuable. It helps that TJ Warren and Marquese Criss also have been playing well for Phoenix and that Tyler Ulis has solidified the point guard spot. The Hawks have an outstanding point guard in Dennis Schroeder. But the Hawks have an unimpressive front line that Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe can do well against. The Hawks carry a fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in five days and fourth in seven days.
12-31-17	Washington v. UCLA -9		53-74	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Washington is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 Pac-12 games. But the Huskies caught the attention of UCLA with an 88-81 road win against USC this past Friday. That was the Huskies' first Pac-12 road victory in nearly two seasons. The Burins are 7-1 at home this season and have covered eight of the last 11 times versus the Huskies. Mike Hopkins has turned around the Huskies in his first season. But I don't see Washington being there yet for this huge early-season conference road matchup. The Bruins are averaging nearly 84 points a game with a balanced attack and a lot of height. It will be too much for Washington at this stage.
12-31-17	Hornets v. Clippers -2.5		98-106	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
The Clippers are the superior team with Blake Griffin back and are home. LA is on a 9-1-1 against the spread run. The Hornets are coming off a shocking upset of the Warriors at Golden State just two days ago. Even with that victory, the Hornets are just 5-13 in their past 18 games. Dwight Howard has played well for Charlotte, but he won't do much against defensive whiz DeAndre Jordan.
12-31-17	Utah v. Oregon State +1		66-64	Loss	-102	10 h 16 m	Show
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points.
12-31-17	Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5		53-48	Win	100	8 h 51 m	Show
Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. Coastal Carolina plays at a deliberate pace, too. The teams met twice last season and the total went Under both times by a combined 50 points.
12-30-17	Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz		101-104	Loss	-112	10 h 24 m	Show
The Cavaliers are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive road losses to the Warriors and then Kings. Cleveland last played on Wednesday and won't play again until Tuesday so this spots sets up well for the Cavaliers. The Jazz have no defensive stoppers to face LeBron James. Utah remains without Rudy Gobbert, their top inside scoring threat and one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Utah has lost three in a row, losing by an average of 21 points a game during this span. The Jazz aren't close to being in the Cavaliers' class without Gobert.
12-30-17	Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5	Top	74-81	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also.
12-29-17	Hornets v. Warriors -11		111-100	Loss	-106	15 h 32 m	Show
The Warriors can name their score here. The question is can they name it by a wide enough margin to cover this double-digit spread? I believe they can. They certainly did when the two teams met on Dec. 6 in Charlotte. The Warriors rolled past the Hornets, 101-87. Golden State achieved that win minus Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry won't be back for this game. But Green is healthy and Golden State is home this time. The Warriors are 9-1 in the 10 games Curry has missed. They've held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Hornets are a below average defensive club that may not even be good enough to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have lost 13 of their last 17 games. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Since losing to the Warriors, the Hornets have faced three other strong teams - Boston, Toronto and Houston. Charlotte dropped all three of those games by double-digits with the average loss being 13.6 points. Charlotte has been terrible on the road going 2-12 SU, 3-8-3 ATS. The Warriors host Memphis on Saturday, but after that game won't play again until Wednesday. So they should be playing hard.
12-29-17	Utah v. Oregon -10		66-56	Loss	-115	10 h 35 m	Show
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season.
12-29-17	Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 220.5		103-121	Loss	-105	8 h 41 m	Show
I'm not anticipating Chris Paul to play, but if he does I still like this game to go Under. Paul would be rusty having missed the last three games. He likely wouldn't play big minutes either. The spot sets up for a hard-nose, defensive battle with both teams coming off losses. The Rockets blew a huge lead in losing 99-98 at Boston last night. Houston's four best players all logged more than 38 minutes in that game. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times the Rockets have played without rest. No Paul obviously would be good for the Under, too. Houston has another key injury. Center Clint Capela is out. He leads the NBA in field goal percentage. The Rockets lack an inside game minus Capela. I see reduced minutes for James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza tonight with newly-signed veteran swingman Gerald Green picking up more minutes. Green made his Rockets debut last night going scoreless in 11 minutes. He's a big offensive downgrade from any of those four players. The Wizards still are mad from an embarrassing 113-99 road loss to the Hawks two nights ago. The Wizards weren't happy with their defense nor their lack of ball movement. I see the Wizards tightening their defense while also taking their time on offense to get the best shot rather than play up-tempo. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 17 times the Wizards have played on one day's rest. Washington is an underrated defensive club at home. The Wizards have yielded just 97.3 points per game during their last six games at Verizon Center.
12-28-17	San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131	Top	63-73	Loss	-110	16 h 14 m	Show
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125.
12-28-17	Wolves v. Bucks OVER 212.5		96-102	Loss	-105	12 h 36 m	Show
I'm going to roll with the tide and play this matchup to go Over. The Bucks have been a monster Over team going 14-2-1 above the number in their last 17 games. Milwaukee has reached triple digits in each of its last 16 games and is averaging 110.4 points during its last nine games. That shouldn't change here as the Bucks are off an embarrassing 115-106 home loss to the Bulls two nights ago and catch the Timberwolves in action for the third time in four days and second in two nights having nipped the Nuggets, 128-125 in overtime, last night. The Timberwolves rank last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Bucks have the perimeter shooters to take full advantage. Minnesota is averaging 113.5 points in its last seven games. The Timberwolves have gone Over in seven of their past eight games, including the last five. Jimmy Butler has been on fire and Karl-Anthony Towns could dominate against a weak rebounding Bucks front line. The Timberwolves may not have starting point guard Jeff Teague. But Tyus Jones is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. He's better than an 83 percent foul shooter and is second on the Timberwolves in 3-point shooting percentage.
12-28-17	Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky		68-69	Win	100	2 h 26 m	Show
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. Conference USA is wide open this season with no clear-cut favorite. Louisiana Tech has the better record and also averages four more points per game than Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs defeated Western Kentucky by nine points last season as a 12-point home favorite. Now look at the line. Good value here to Louisiana Tech.
12-27-17	Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls		87-92	Loss	-110	15 h 43 m	Show
I understand the Bulls are far removed from the 3-20 team that opened the season. I also understand the Knicks are not a good road team, just 2-10. Still, I'm not buying the Bulls opening a favorite in this matchup. The Bulls carry a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in eight days and second in two nights following a highly satisfying road victory against the Bucks last night. Chicago has lost five of six times this season when playing without rest, losing by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Knicks play five of their next six games on the road, including facing the Spurs in San Antonio on Thursday. New York is coming off a Christmas Day home loss to the 76ers and will be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game, while Chicago is fat and happy. This also is a big revenge spot for the Knicks. They lost 104-102 to the Bulls at United Center on Dec. 9. The Bulls were blistering hot in that game making 51.2 percent of their shots from the floor. Chicago also went to the free throw line 23 times to just nine times for the Knicks.
12-27-17	Celtics -115 v. Hornets	Top	102-91	Win	100	14 h 44 m	Show
The Celtics are the much better team and have a huge coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Hornets interim coach Stephen Silas. Charlotte is 4-8 in its last 12 games. The Hornets really miss big man Cody Zeller, who is out following knee surgery. Charlotte is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight home contests. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Wizards on Christmas Day and host the Rockets Thursday. So they are in real danger of being saddled with a three-game losing streak if they lose this matchup. Boston has dominated this series under Stevens winning nine of the past 10 times, including the last five.
12-26-17	Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212		115-106	Win	100	6 h 44 m	Show
The Bulls are playing far better on offense with the emergence of Kris Dunn at point guard. They have scored at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games. If you discount their last game, a 92-point road performance against the No. 2 defensive ranked Celtics, the Bulls have averaged 114 points in their last four games. The Bucks have reached triple digits in their last 15 games. They are averaging 111 points per game in their last eight games. The Over is 13-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 16 games. The teams just met 11 days ago at Bradley Center and there were 224 points scored in Chicago's 115-109 upset win.
12-26-17	Pacers v. Pistons -120	Top	83-107	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
The Pistons have defeated the Pacers two of three times this season with the latest coming 11 days ago at Indiana, 104-98. A key to the Pistons beating the Pacers is they can control blossoming star Victor Oladipo, who is shooting just 35.5 percent from the field versus Detroit this season. Even though Avery Bradley remains out, the Pistons have other defensive-minded players such as Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver. Both teams have been playing well, but Indiana has met inferior competition in three of its last four games drawing the Hawks and Nets twice. The Pistons enjoy playing in their new home, Little Caesars Arena. It's not too much to ask of them to beat the Pacers at home.
12-25-17	Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5		111-103	Loss	-103	9 h 2 m	Show
Peace on earth, goodwill to men. Those sentiments don't hold when the Wizards and Celtics get together. This is their first matchup since their contentious Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series that went seven games. There's going to be a lot of intensity in this game. It's a day game, too. These are helpful factors to the Under. It's also a huge Under factor, too, that both teams are strong defensively. Boston ranks second in the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Part of this is the Celtics' ranking in the bottom-five in tempo. The Celtics aren't going to get in a track meet against John Wall. Washington has scored fewer than 101 points in five of its last seven games. It's easy to think of Wall and his excellent backcourt mate, Bradley Beal, when talking about the Wizards. But Washington is better defensively than perceived. The Wizards rank No. 1 in 3-point defensive percentage and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. During their last seven games, the Wizards have ranked in the top-five in defensvie efficiency. The Under has been a sneaky good play in Wizards games covering 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games.
12-23-17	Mavs -125 v. Hawks	Top	107-112	Loss	-125	7 h 13 m	Show
The Hawks have been playing terrible defense yielding triple-digits in 14 of their last 15 games. Atlanta also isn't a good home team going 4-11 this season at Philips Arena and holding a losing ATS home mark. Dallas has picked up its game going 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games. The Hawks are one of the three worst teams in the NBA. Their lack of talent is even more exposed when playing Western Conference foes where they are 2-7 ATS. This is a tough spot, too, for Atlanta following a tough 120-117 road loss to Oklahoma City Friday night. The Hawks gave a great effort in that game. It's an added plus for the Mavericks if the Hawks are going to missing point guard Dennis Schroder for a second straight game. Dallas is in revenge mode, too, for a 117-111 home loss suffered to the Hawks back on Oct. 18 when it wasn't playing as well.
12-22-17	Texas State -2.5 v. Rice		74-66	Win	100	12 h 34 m	Show
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67.
12-22-17	Knicks v. Pistons -6		101-104	Loss	-105	8 h 13 m	Show
The Knicks are in a major letdown spot after upsetting the Celtics, 102-93, at home last night. Now the Knicks hit the road where they have been terrible. New York is 2-9 this season away from Madison Square Garden, 3-8 ATS. Kristaps Porzingis is far and away New York's best player. But he hasn't been 100 percent due to a knee injury. The Pistons are in bounce-back mode after a bad 110-93 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Detroit had won three in a row prior to that. The Pistons are tough in their new Little Caesar Arena going 9-5 there with a winning point spread mark.