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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-06-21	Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		55-68	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
02-06-21	NC State -3.5 v. Boston College		81-65	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday.
02-05-21	California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State	Top	85-75	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
02-05-21	Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State		54-61	Loss	-109	16 h 10 m	Show
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State.
02-05-21	South Dakota v. South Dakota State OVER 150		64-56	Loss	-110	16 h 39 m	Show
This is a battle of the two best teams in the Summit League. These teams win with offense. South Dakota ranks 114th in scoring at nearly 75 points a game. The Coyotes rank 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and are an excellent free throw shooting team. South Dakota State averages 80.5 points per game. The Jackrabbits rank third in 3-point percentage and are 22nd in field goal percentage. They, too, are good at the free throw line. So look for offense - not defense - in this matchup. That was the case back on Dec. 12 when the teams met at a neutral site. South Dakota won, 91-78, for a combined 169 points. South Dakota State was missing its second-leading scorer, Doug Wilson, for that game. Wilson averages 15.8 points. South Dakota is averaging 90.6 points in its last three games, all of which have gone Over. The Jackrabbits are averaging 89 points in their last five games. The Over has cashed in seven of their last eight lined games.
02-05-21	Jazz v. Hornets +8.5		138-121	Loss	-115	10 h 33 m	Show
Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip. This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days. The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog. Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury. The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that.
02-05-21	Wizards +6.5 v. Heat		95-122	Loss	-101	8 h 27 m	Show
I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength. Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago. The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation. The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored.
02-04-21	Nuggets +5 v. Lakers		93-114	Loss	-108	12 h 51 m	Show
As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals. This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107.
02-04-21	Eastern Washington -15 v. Idaho		89-75	Loss	-107	17 h 32 m	Show
Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th. The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points.
02-04-21	Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5	Top	74-72	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
02-04-21	Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14		89-61	Loss	-110	16 h 6 m	Show
Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday. Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71.
02-04-21	USC Upstate +9.5 v. Radford		61-63	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games. Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate. Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog.
02-04-21	Wagner v. St Francis NY -2		74-67	Loss	-112	15 h 31 m	Show
It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more. Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season. St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record. The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty.
02-03-21	SMU v. Tulsa +2.5		65-63	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games. Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice.
02-03-21	Wolves v. Spurs -8		108-111	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
I have to believe Gregg Popovich is going to have the Spurs ultra competitive in this spot after San Antonio lost two straight to the Grizzlies, both at home. The Spurs' 133-102 loss to Memphis this past Monday was their most lopsided of the season. Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Timberwolves' lone victories during this span were against the short-handed Cavaliers and Pelicans. Minnesota has lost eight consecutive road games. Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past nine games. The Timberwolves rarely have been competitive without him. Minnesota has lost by 12 or more points during four of its last five defeats. The Spurs aren't going to have LeMarcus Aldridge. I'm fine with that. Aldridge isn't the All-Star of past seasons. The absence of Aldridge is more than offset with the Timberwolves again being without Towns and guard Jarret Culver, a key member of their rotation. The Timberwolves are in action for the fourth time in six days. San Antonio won't play again until Saturday against the Rockets in Houston. Another reason the Spurs shouldn't be holding anything back. Before losing two in a row to the Grizzlies, the Spurs had defeated the Celtics and Nuggets in their previous home games. So the Spurs are capable of dispatching the Timberwolves by double-digits.
02-03-21	East Tennessee State v. Mercer -125		70-64	Loss	-125	15 h 18 m	Show
The combination of Mercer's high scoring and 6-foot-11 Maciej Bender's low-post defensive presence and shot blocking ability should provide Mercer with a comfortable victory. The Bears average 78 points per game, which is eight more points per contest than East Tennessee State averages. Mercer has balanced scoring led by Ross Cummings, who is one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the country. Cummings, who averages 15.7 points, shoots 51.5 percent from the floor and has made 44.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.
02-03-21	Fordham v. Massachusetts -13	Top	54-60	Loss	-105	15 h 13 m	Show
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points.
02-02-21	USC -2 v. Stanford	Top	72-66	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.
02-02-21	Blazers +2 v. Wizards		132-121	Win	100	12 h 43 m	Show
The Wizards are coming off their biggest win of the season beating the Nets, 149-146, on Sunday after trailing by 18 points. The Wizards aren't used to winning. They are 4-12. It's a rare letdown spot for the Wizards. Washington has been favored four times. The Wizards have lost three of those times straight-up. Portland is off its worst loss of the season, 134-106, to the host Bucks on Monday. The timing was bad for the Trail Blazers. They caught the Bucks returning home off consecutive road losses to the Pelicans and Hornets. Now the timing is bad for Washington, which has the worst defense in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their nine away contests this season. They also have defeated the Wizards during each of the last three meetings.
02-02-21	Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss		50-52	Loss	-110	16 h 24 m	Show
The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games - but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points. Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game. Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers.
02-02-21	Buffalo v. Ball State +4.5		78-58	Loss	-107	11 h 33 m	Show
These teams are similar. Buffalo is 6-6. Ball State is 6-8. Buffalo has the better offense. Ball State is stronger defensively. The teams met back on Jan. 9 and Buffalo defeated the Cardinals, 86-59, as 5-point home favorites. Now the Bulls are nearly that high of a favorite on the road. I'm not buying it. Not only does Ball State have revenge motivation, but also is coming off its worst loss of the season, an embarrassing, 74-42, loss to Akron from Saturday. The Bulls haven't been playing well either losing three of their last four. Ball State has covered 11 of its last 15 home contests. The Cardinals also are 10-1 ATS when hosting a foe with a losing road record, which Buffalo has.
02-01-21	Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5		136-106	Loss	-110	17 h 48 m	Show
James Harden is gone. Mike D'Antoni isn't the coach. The Rockets have a new identity these days. Their offense is a work-in-progress and their coach, Stephen Silas, stresses defense first. Quite a difference from who they used to be. Houston hasn't reached 108 points in four of its last six games. However, the Rockets' defense has stepped way up giving up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NBA if computed for the entire season. Oklahoma City also is dealing with a new identity. The Thunder have scored 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games. So why do we have a total this large? The oddsmaker didn't miss the Thunder's last game. That was a 147-125 home loss to the Nets this past Friday. The Nets, though, lead the NBA in scoring at 122 points a game while ranking 27th defensively. Aside from being Harden's last team, the Nets have nothing in common with the Rockets. The Rockets should be able to clamp down on the Thunder, who have been missing injured veteran point guard George Hill. Oklahoma City ranks 25th in scoring. The Thunder should have great motivation to clamp down on the Rockets following their worst defensive game of the season. They've had three days to rest and prepare.
02-01-21	East Tennessee State v. Wofford -124		62-67	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
These have been the two best teams in the Southern Conference. That's likely the case again this season. East Tennessee State leads the conference with a 6-1 mark. Wofford is tied for second at 7-2. Both the Buccaneers and Terriers have been playing well. But it's not too much to ask Wofford to win at home. The Terriers have been dominant at home the past three seasons at Richardson Indoor Stadium going 31-7, including winning six of seven home contests this season. The Terriers average nearly five points more per game than East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers' offense has been up-and-down. Only twice in their last six games have the Buccaneers scored more than 71 points. Wofford has produced 72 or more points in seven of its last nine games.
01-31-21	UNLV v. Nevada -130		60-89	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
Nevada beat UNLV in both meetings last season and the Wolfpack should defeat UNLV at home. This has always been a huge rivalry that the Wolfpack traditionally take more seriously than UNLV. Nevada is 6-2-1 ATS during the past nine meetings against UNLV. The Wolfpack have won three of its four Mountain West Conference home games this season, while UNLV has yet to win a conference road game. The Rebels last were on the road Jan. 9. Both teams are strong defensively, but I trust the Wolfpack's offense and 3-point shooting more. The Rebels still haven't found a consistent ballhandler having lost point guard Marvin Coleman for the season. In addition, the Rebels' leading scorer, Bryce Hamilton, has been hampered by an ankle injury. He averaged just eight points in the Rebels' last two games after averaging more than 20 points a game entering those last two contests. There's a chance Hamilton may even sit out against the Wolfpack.
01-31-21	Cavs -3 v. Wolves	Top	104-109	Loss	-114	18 h 31 m	Show
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota.
01-31-21	Bradley +1 v. Indiana State		57-60	Loss	-112	7 h 29 m	Show
Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc.
01-31-21	Illinois State +19 v. Drake		76-78	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games? None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view. Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game.
01-30-21	Pistons v. Warriors -5.5	Top	91-118	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit. The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again. Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago. I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days. The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record.
01-30-21	Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5		62-81	Win	100	13 h 40 m	Show
Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa. Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game. Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring.
01-30-21	Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5		62-75	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
These two teams just met on Thursday. There were 117 points scored in San Jose State's 59-58 home win. It was the sixth time in their last seven games the Spartans went Under the total. So what's going to change in just two days? Not enough for the total to reach as high as the oddsmaker set it. These teams play slow, especially Air Force. The Falcons are the eight-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 59 points. San Jose State averages 66.2 points, which ranks 294th. The Spartans are likely to be missing their leading scorer, Richard Washington, again due to an undisclosed injury. He averages 20.7 points a game. The next highest scorer for San Jose State averages 11.7 points.
01-30-21	McNeese State +5 v. Lamar		56-64	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11. There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest. The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number.
01-30-21	Toledo v. Bowling Green +4		84-66	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times. The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game. Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets.
01-30-21	SIU-Edwardsville v. Tenn-Martin +4		76-60	Loss	-109	10 h 6 m	Show
When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand. Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before. SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars.
01-30-21	Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois +2.5		74-62	Loss	-110	9 h 10 m	Show
Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class. The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game.
01-29-21	CS-Fullerton +10.5 v. CS Bakersfield		90-84	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages. The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes.
01-29-21	Iowa +2 v. Illinois		75-80	Loss	-109	16 h 33 m	Show
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.
01-29-21	Pacers v. Hornets +3.5		105-108	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs. This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals. Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor.
01-29-21	Hawks v. Wizards +4		116-100	Loss	-109	7 h 30 m	Show
I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday. Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards. I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played. The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown. Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.
01-29-21	Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 136.5		63-64	Win	100	14 h 40 m	Show
Florida Gulf Coast is averaging only 64.5 points in its last four games. Stetson is giving up just 66.2 points during its last five games. The Hatters are not an up-tempo team, which is fine with Florida Gulf Coast. Neither offense is dynamic. Stetson ranks 288th in scoring averaging 66.5 points a game, while the Eagles rank 183rd in scoring at 71.9 points. They've held their last four foes to an aveage of 64.5 points. Given the current defensive form of both teams - and lack of tempo and big scoring - look for this one to go Under the total.
01-29-21	Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara		77-67	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number.
01-28-21	California v. Arizona State -7.5		68-72	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right.
01-28-21	Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5		85-66	Loss	-110	16 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.
01-27-21	Utah State -6 v. UNLV	Top	83-74	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better.
01-27-21	Nets v. Hawks UNDER 239	Top	132-128	Loss	-109	7 h 24 m	Show
This is a big totals number. Perhaps, on the surface, it may be justified. But a lot has to go right for the Over to cash. I believe the marketplace, whose early money has been on the Over, is wrong to bet this one up. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are learning to play together. Harden and Irving are still rounding into shape. There were just 183 points scored in the Nets' last game, a 98-85 win against the Heat two days ago. The Heat did have numerous people out, including Jimmy Butler. Still, holding any NBA team to 85 points is impressive. There were 207 points produced in the Hawks' last game, a 108-99 Atlanta victory against the Clippers last night. LA was minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Hawks, though, have been in excellent defensive form recently thanks to big men Clint Capela and John Collins. If you discount a 129-115 loss to the Bucks, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 100 points. Atlanta ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage - so Harden could be in for a rough shooting night - and has the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the league.
01-26-21	Wizards v. Rockets -3.5		88-107	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time. This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury.
01-25-21	Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5		67-80	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests.
01-25-21	Lakers v. Cavs +10.5		115-108	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers. LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5. So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits. The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers.
01-24-21	Cavs v. Celtics -5.5		103-141	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19. There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers. There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast.
01-24-21	Valparaiso v. Illinois State -115		70-66	Loss	-115	7 h 54 m	Show
I'm looking for Illinois State to get revenge on Valparaiso after the Crusader upset Illinois State, 69-60, as 2-point road 'dogs on Saturday. The Redbirds suffered a letdown having upset Bradley at home during their previous game. Illinois holds a backcourt edge and should shoot more than 10 free throws, which was their Saturday total. The Redbirds also should make more than seven 3-pointers. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Crusaders had failed to cover in six straight games until upsetting Illinois State.
01-23-21	76ers v. Pistons +7		114-110	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests.
01-23-21	St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco		67-63	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win.
01-23-21	McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist		74-71	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games.
01-23-21	West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5		69-47	Loss	-105	10 h 57 m	Show
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups.
01-23-21	Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma		68-75	Loss	-114	8 h 14 m	Show
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark.
01-22-21	Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers		106-120	Loss	-108	11 h 46 m	Show
The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team.
01-22-21	San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 127.5	Top	98-61	Loss	-110	20 h 8 m	Show
Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring. Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points. There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record.
01-22-21	Heat v. Raptors -2.5		81-101	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury.
01-22-21	Celtics +5 v. 76ers		110-122	Loss	-106	8 h 26 m	Show
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement.
01-22-21	Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington OVER 144.5		66-59	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
Arkansas-Little Rock has been a strong Over team. The Over has cashed in 74 percent of its last 34 games. The Trojans have gone Over in eight of their last nine road contests. Arkansas-Little Rock just played two games against Texas State, which has the 40th-best defense in the nation. Before meeting Texas State, the Trojans had scored at least 75 points in eight of their last nine games. Now Little Rock is stepping way down in defensive class. UT-Arlington is a much weaker defensive team than Texas State. The Mavericks are all about a fast tempo and high scoring. They average 79.2 points and play faster than any other Sun Belt Conference team. The Mavericks have produced a minimum of 75 points in seven of their last nine games.
01-22-21	Fairleigh Dickinson v. Merrimack UNDER 138		71-76	Loss	-130	6 h 60 m	Show
These two teams just played on Thursday. Merrimack won, 62-51. That's a combined score of 113 points. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 32 percent from the floor displaying trouble handling Merrimack's zone defense. The Knights are likely to struggle with their shooting again with no time to adjust and ranking 245th in the country in scoring. Merrimack is no whiz offensively either. The Warriors rank 293rd in scoring and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. They are 13-3-1 to the Under following a victory.
01-21-21	Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado		76-78	Loss	-104	16 h 22 m	Show
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests.
01-21-21	Montana v. CS Sacramento OVER 119.5		78-66	Win	100	16 h 51 m	Show
The Big Sky is an offensive-minded conference. Montana and Sacramento State are the exceptions. These two teams are about defense. But the oddsmaker has set this total too low. It's the lowest total of the season by far for Montana and also the lowest Over/Under for Sacramento State. The Grizzlies have reached at least 62 points in nine of their 12 games. They've allowed at least 62 in eight of those contests. Sacramento State has a solid scoring threat in Ethan Esposito, who averages 16.9 points while hitting 51.2 percent of his shots. If you toss out a 65-43 loss to St. Mary's, the Hornets are averaging 77 points on the season.
01-21-21	Wichita State +3 v. Memphis		52-72	Loss	-103	15 h 48 m	Show
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage.
01-21-21	San Jose State v. New Mexico -6		51-67	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans.
01-20-21	Kings v. Clippers OVER 231.5	Top	96-115	Loss	-110	19 h 57 m	Show
The Kings were a below average defensive team last season, but they weren't a defensive disaster. Sacramento coach Luke Walton decided to make some defensive adjustments this season. The result is the Kings rank last defensively. They have allowed 122 or more points in each of their last eight games. Sacramento is a top-nine scoring team. That combination of good offense/horrendous defense makes the Kings a dead-nuts Over team as long as Walton stays their coach and the oddsmaker is slow to fully adjust. The Over has won in nine of the Kings' last 11 games. There's no reason to go against that pertinent trend in this matchup. The Clippers are averaging 132.3 points in their last three games. That's their best scoring stretch of the season. The teams just met this past Friday and the Clippers won, 138-100, for a total of 238 points.
01-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5		57-64	Win	100	14 h 32 m	Show
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games.
01-20-21	Tulsa +12 v. Houston		59-86	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number.
01-20-21	Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5		74-86	Loss	-111	11 h 30 m	Show
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them.
01-20-21	Nets v. Cavs +10.5		135-147	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
There is a strong possibility the Nets will have their three superstars - James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving - playing together for the first time when they meet the Cavaliers today. Consider two things before jumping to the conclusion that the Nets are going to destroy the Cavaliers. No. 1: Irving hasn't played in 15 days. He's going to be rusty. Also it takes time for three players of that magnitude to get comfortable with each other on the court. This is what Nets coach Steve Nash said about that, "It's hard to build chemistry without playing, and we're not playing in practice. So the chemistry is going to be formed on the floor during games." Irving may be on a minutes restriction. It's doubtful those three mega stars are playing if Brooklyn does build a big lead leaving the back-door open for Cleveland. The teams meet again on Friday. No. 2: It's not getting nearly the publicity of Irving's return, but the Cavaliers are expecting to get back their injured starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Both went through full practice on Monday. Reserve guard Damyean Dotson has done a credible job filling in. Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league averaging 25 points. Center Jarrett Allen and veteran Taurean Prince are set to make their Cleveland debuts. They were part of the Harden trade. Allen is having a good season averaging 11.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. He joins Andre Drummond, who is averaging a career-best 19.3 points and 15.8 rebounds. There's also the situational factor to consider. The Nets are in a letdown spot after a dramatic nationally televised two-point victory against the Bucks two nights ago. The Nets were underdogs against the Bucks. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the past eight times it has been favored.
01-19-21	Thunder +10 v. Nuggets		101-119	Loss	-104	7 h 48 m	Show
The Nuggets have captured the Northwest Division each of the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference finals last season. But Denver is off to a 6-7 start this season as their roster composition is much different from last year. The Nuggets also are missing a key cog with breakout star Michael Porter sidelined because of COVID-19 protocols. So right now the Nuggets shouldn't be laying double-digits to a feisty underdog such as Oklahoma City. The Thunder have excelled in this exact role - road 'dogs. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS the past 29 times taking road points for a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS as away 'dogs this season with straight-up victories against the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans in this role. The Thunder should be well-rested and prepared having last played this past Friday as their Sunday game against the 76ers was postponed due to contact tracing issues with Philadelphia.
01-19-21	Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova	Top	74-76	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.
01-18-21	Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5		50-59	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure.
01-18-21	Bucks -122 v. Nets	Top	123-125	Loss	-122	14 h 5 m	Show
Perhaps by the end of the season, the Nets will be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But right now the Bucks are the superior club. Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight games, averaging 119 points a game during this span. James Harden will be playing just his second game as a Net. He played 40 minutes and had a triple-double against the Magic on Saturday. Harden hadn't played in four days prior to that game. We'll see what kind of shape he's in stepping way up in class against the Bucks with his new team. The 8-6 Nets aren't expected to have Kyrie Irving for a seventh straight game. The Nets had to trade starting center Jarrett Allen and key reserve Caris LeVert to get Harden. Their center spot is now manned by over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan, who contributes virtually no scoring. The Bucks have been the best regular-season team for the past two seasons and they have the best record in the Eastern Conference this season.They average more points than the Nets and give up four fewer points per game than Brooklyn. Milwaukee has beaten the Nets eight straight times in Brooklyn.
01-18-21	The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro		73-87	Loss	-110	11 h 14 m	Show
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests.
01-18-21	VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State		81-92	Loss	-107	11 h 10 m	Show
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws.
01-17-21	Pelicans v. Kings OVER 226.5		128-123	Win	101	8 h 29 m	Show
Both Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy and Kings coach Luke Walton put in new defenses for their respective teams this season. New Orleans caught a few opponents off-guard with that early on, but the Pelicans are giving up an average of 112.6 points in regulation during their last five games. That figure would rank them in the bottom 10 if computed during the entire season. Sacramento is 11th in the league in scoring. The Kings always had backcourt scorers, but now they're getting added points from big man Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley Jr. The Kings have scored 123 or more points in four of their last six games. Walton's new defensive approach has been a disaster. The Kings are surrendering an average of 131.7 points during their last seven games, giving up 122 or more points in each of those games. So it's not a surprise Sacramento ranks last in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Pelicans have the firepower to take advantage with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Eric Bledsoe.
01-17-21	Memphis v. Tulsa +2		57-58	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games.
01-17-21	Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall		69-67	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there.
01-17-21	Hofstra v. Delaware +3		68-67	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent.
01-16-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		115-122	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
There's not a lot to like about Orlando right now. The Magic have lost four in a row, losing by an average margin of 26 points during this span. But I'm going to hold my nose and step in with the Magic taking this many points against what has to be a distracted Nets team. Between Kyrie Irving doing his space cadet routine again and James Harden's arrival, the Nets have been a major publicity item. Harden is expected to make his Nets debut here. He won't have Irving, who is out due to personal reasons. Harden won't know his new teammates, will be rusty and likely won't play a ton of minutes especially with the Nets hosting the Bucks in their next game on Monday. Prices on the Nets are up with Harden joining the squad. Everything is about Harden, but the Nets lost two key pieces in the multi-team trade to acquire hime. Caris LeVert, their best bench player and a legitimate quality starter, was sent to the Pacers. Jarrett Allen, their starting center, was set to the Cavaliers. Allen was emerging as a force in the middle. Now the Nets' lone big man is over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan. Orlando's strength is its two big men, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. They can pound the Nets inside. The Magic have covered five of the last six times against the Nets and have been a money-maker on the road going 13-6-1 (68 percent) during their past 20 away contests.
01-16-21	NJIT +3 v. Albany		75-83	Loss	-115	7 h 52 m	Show
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games.
01-16-21	Wofford v. Chattanooga +2		77-59	Loss	-105	3 h 10 m	Show
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games.
01-16-21	Army v. Boston University -119		79-59	Loss	-119	3 h 40 m	Show
Boston University won the Patriot League last season. The Terriers swept Army last season, winning by 22 points at home and 14 on the road. The Terriers have back their key player, Walter Whyte. He's the team's second-leading scorer and No. 1 rebounder. Army lacks strong point guard play and is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation at 59.6 percent.
01-15-21	Hawks +6 v. Jazz		92-116	Loss	-105	9 h 50 m	Show
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz.
01-15-21	Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5		60-54	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
01-15-21	Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo	Top	76-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
01-15-21	Niagara v. Manhattan +2.5		49-58	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points.
01-14-21	Colorado State v. San Jose State UNDER 156		90-57	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
This game could get lopsided real fast. Colorado State gives up 64.7 points a game, ranking 61st in the country. San Jose State ranks 335th in field goal percentage. The Spartans, winless in the Mountain West Conference, have scored 65 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. Neither team is good at offensive rebounding so there shouldn't be many easy putback baskets off missed shots. Colorado State probably can name its score here. But the Rams and Spartans square off again on Saturday. So the Rams are likely to not run up a score and get their reserves ample minutes if the game gets out of hand, which is likely to happen. Given the circumstances and San Jose State's scoring woes, Under is the right way to look.
01-14-21	Washington v. USC UNDER 139.5		68-95	Loss	-105	15 h 40 m	Show
USC ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Washington is having a down year averaging just 63.3 points, which ranks 317th in the nation, and shooting 39.4 percent from the floor, which rates 321st. The Huskies are going to have trouble scoring inside against USC's star Mobley brothers, Evan and Isaiah. The Trojans averaged only 51 points in two games against the Huskies last season. USC has been frigid in its 3-point shooting during its past two games making just 6-of-43 for 14 percent. The Huskies always have had a highly-respected defense under Mike Hopkins.
01-14-21	Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho		74-54	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
Northern Colorado is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference that has owned Idaho beating them the past six times.The Bears' average winning margin in these games is 20 points. Everybody in the Big Sky beats Idaho. The Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country. They are winless in nine games and 0-6 in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS the last nine times taking on foes with a winning percentage below 40 percent. Bodie Hume gives Northern Colorado the best player on the court. The Bears give up 10 points fewer per game than Idaho, which is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home contests.
01-14-21	Hornets v. Raptors UNDER 220		108-111	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
The Hornets' decent 6-6 start can be attributed to defense. Charlotte ranks eighth defensively holding foes to 107.3 points. Hornets Coach James Borrego is showing how much he prefers defense above offense by giving minutes to Cody and Caleb Martin while keeping scorer Malik Monk on the bench. A rusty Monk may get an opportunity here, though, as the Hornets' leading scorer, Gordon Hayward, may not play after suffering a hip strain on Wednesday. Hayward and Terry Rozier are the only Charlotte players averaging more than 13 points per game. Charlotte ranks 24th in scoring at 107.2. The Hornets just matched their lowest scoring output of the season in a 104-93 home loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. That game went 24 points below the closing total of 221. The Hornets lack inside scoring. They have to work hard for their baskets. Toronto gave up the second-fewest points per game last season. The Raptors, though, have been a major disappointment so far this season losing eight of their first 10 games while ranking 19th defensively yielding 112.5 points. Lately, however, the Raptors have shown defensive improvement. They held Golden State to 106 points and Portland to 112 points both on the road during their past two games. That's six points below the season average of both of those teams. The Raptors have played seven Western Conference teams plus the Celtics and 76ers - each of whom rank in the top 12 in scoring - during their first 10 games. Now they are stepping down in class against a punchless offense that could be without its best scorer.
01-13-21	New Mexico v. Dixie State +3		72-63	Loss	-115	16 h 24 m	Show
Maybe New Mexico's nickname should be changed from the Lobos to the Hobos. Headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico has been on the road much of the season because of COVID-19 issues. The Lobos had been temporarily living in a hotel and working out of rented gyms in the Lubbock area of West Texas. Now the Lobos are leaving Lubbock to set up shop for two weeks in St. George, Utah. Before they get settled there, though, it was decided they would play Dixie State, which is in its first year of Division I basketball. The Trailblazers are 4-2 competing in the Western Athletic Conference. One of those two losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga on the road, 112-67. The Trailblazers are motivated to knock off this Mountain West Conference opponent. New Mexico has gotten destroyed in Mountain West play losing all six of its games with its average loss being 25.5 points. The Lobos have failed to cover any of these six games. The Lobos have been one of the worst ATS road teams covering only 33 percent of their last 76 away games. New Mexico has 12 new players on its roster. They started the second half of their last game, an 82-46 loss to Utah State in Lubbock this past Friday, with four freshmen. Lobos coach Paul Weir might use this non-conference game to continue the team's youth movement.
01-13-21	Rhode Island v. Massachusetts +3		78-80	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying Rhode Island as a road favorite in this Atlantic-10 Conference grudge matchup. UMass is a dominant 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) in its last 27 home contests. The Minutemen average 13 points more per game than Rhode Island. UMass also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell, who is averaging 20.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring while ranking ninth in rebounding. Mitchell averaged 31 points in two games against the Rams last season hitting 23 of 35 shots from the floor. UMass covered both of its games last season against Rhode Island, including a 64-63 loss as 3-point home 'dogs. Rhode Island is playing at a different venue for the fourth straight game. The Rams were supposed to get a seven-day break after their 83-68 upset road victory against VCU this past Saturday as this game originally was scheduled for Feb. 27. But it was moved to today.
01-13-21	Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State	Top	53-72	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
01-12-21	Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC	Top	62-67	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
01-12-21	Jazz v. Cavs +11	Top	117-87	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
Anytime you have Yogi Ferrell drawing minutes you know it's either a YMCA game, or an NBA team that has a serious injury situation and needs a body. Such is the case with the Cavaliers. But this spot sets up well for Cleveland so I'm taking double-digits with the home 'dog Cavaliers. Utah is playing its sixth road game in 10 days. The Jazz are 3-2 on their trip and off double-digit wins against the Bucks and Pistons. They conclude their road swing on Wednesday against the Wizards. The Jazz knows the Cavaliers are short-handed. This is a letdown and rest stop for them. Cleveland is minus Kevin Love, Dante Exum, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. The Cavaliers also were minus Collin Sexton for a third straight game after he was a late scratch in Monday's 101-91 home loss to Memphis. It's a big plus if Sexton, an underrated guard having a tremendous season averaging 25.1 points, can play. But if he can't, I still like Cleveland to cover. The Cavaliers are playing at a snail's pace. They have an excellent big man, Andre Drummond, to execute this half-court style and frustrate Utah. Drummond gets some help on the frontcourt from Larry Nance Jr. An ugly, low-scoring matchup, which this game figures to be, is a plus for such a large-sized underdog.
01-12-21	Eastern Michigan +11 v. Toledo		63-96	Loss	-110	11 h 10 m	Show
Toledo could be the best team in the Mid-American Conference. But I see a buy sign on Eastern Michigan after the Eagles upset Akron as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs, 71-59, this past Saturday. Akron averages nearly 80 points a game. So the Eagles should enter this matchup with confidence. They have a good backcourt with Bryce McBride and Yeikson Montero. They combine to average nearly 30 points a game. Toledo has a bigger game on deck when it plays at Akron on Sunday. Akron is tied for the second-best record in the MAC. The Rockets are 5-11 ATS against opponents with a losing record.
01-12-21	Miami-FL v. Boston College +3		62-84	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
Don't be scared off by Boston College's 2-9 record. The Eagles have played a murderous schedule and are in circle-the-wagons mode to halt a four-game losing streak and win their first ACC game of the season. This is their chance at home before going on the road for consecutive away contests. The Eagles lost to Duke by one point. Fell in overtime to Minnesota. Led Villanova by nine points before losing. Boston College lost 61-49 to Virginia this past Saturday. Wynston Tabbs, BC's leading scorer, was held scoreless in the loss to Virginia going 0-for-9 from the floor. Miami gives up eight points more per game than Virginia. Miami is a terrible 3-point shooting team and below average in free throw shooting. The Hurricanes could be without their starting backcourt, too. Chris Lykes, who led Miami in scoring last season, has been out with an ankle injury and Kameron McGusty is questionable with a hamstring injury.
01-11-21	Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State		58-48	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Indiana State upset Loyola of Chicago, 76-71, as 8-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Loyola, which ranks eighth in the country in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage, had an off-shooting game. The Ramblers shot 43 percent from the field and missed 18 of 27 3-point shots. Indiana State, which ranks 256th in field goal percentage and 200th in 3-point percentage, shot 44 percent from the floor and made 8 of 18 3-pointers. The Sycamores received 31 points from Tyreke Key, which is 16 points above his season scoring average. The Ramblers had won and covered their previous three games. I see them bouncing back in this short revenge spot. I expect them to shoot more like their normal selves while Key comes back to Earth.
01-10-21	Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 225.5		127-130	Loss	-110	11 h 28 m	Show
The Clippers have a top-10 defense. They should be motivated for this afternoon matchup after losing a 115-105 Friday game to the Warriors where they blew a 20-point second-half lead. The Bulls are short-handed. They likely will be minus two of their four best offensive players. Lauri Markkanen is expected to miss his seventh straight game due to COVID issues and Otto Porter Jr. is doubtful because of a back injury. Zack LaVine has been doing the heavy lifting for Chicago averaging 29.3 points during Chicago's last three games, all of which have been on the road. The Clippers have three elite defenders to slow down LaVine in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley. Tempo always is important in getting involved with a total. This marks Chicago's fourth road game in six days. This is an early start time so it's almost like the Bulls are playing for the fourth time in five days. I highly doubt the weary Bulls want to play at a fast pace. The Clippers play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA.