UCLA +2 3.3* NCAAB POD

Boise State +6 3.3* NCAAB POD

Auburn +10.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
I'll take the Tigers against the "unbeatable Seminoles." I looked at several aspects of this game, but what I started with was strength of schedule. Not only is the ACC over rated and have gone 4-5 in bowl games, but the SEC is better than last year and is not down based on some experts claims. The SEC is 7-2 in bowl games and Georgia played without their star QB and Alabama didn't want to be there. SEC had 30 wins vs. top 25 teams while the ACC had 2 going 2-26. The Seminoles had the 39th hardest schedule compared to Auburn's 6th. Seminoles non-conference schedule really boosted a lot of stats as they faced a helpless Florida team and then Bethune Cookman, Nevada and Idaho who are both way at the back of solid college football teams. Nonetheless we give the Seminoles plenty of credit for winning all of their games by 27 or more points with the exception of Boston College.....

BC was the one team that Florida State faced in the top 40 in rushing ypc. BC was 12th and as we saw in their bowl game they were not that good against Arizona. However, Auburn ranked 5th and they don't appear to be slowing down. FSU gave up 200 yards to Boston College and if you don't believe Auburn is a better team you are crazy. In this game I think absolutely Auburn will be able to run the ball. They may have to be a little creative to get it going, but with extra time to prepare Guz Malzahn is a genius. This is a guy that broke Auburn records with over 4,000 yards rushing and is also responsible for a 5,000 passing season at Tulsa. I give the coaching edge to Auburn.

It's not like Nick Marshall can't pass either. Marshall came in early knowing only 25% of the playbook, but you could see this offense get better with every game this season and the depth they have at RB is solid to pair with Heisman candidate Tre Mason. I don't see a game on Florida State's schedule that they had to prepare for an offense even remotely close to what Auburn can do. Which means I believe Auburn will get their points. Now their defense is another story, but hidden under everything...

Auburn's ability to hold up on third down holding opponents to 34% and in the red zone they have been amazing holding opponents to 48% TD's will keep them in this game. If they can get pressure on Winston and cause a couple of turnovers I think they can win and Florida State was not great at protecting Winston ranked 83rd in pass protection. A couple of game changers on Auburn's side obviously we know the Nick Marshall and Tre Mason's of the world, but Chris Davis at corner back and Sammie Coates at WR are really really good. This entire Auburn team believes they are a team of destiny and they continue to fight back no matter the situation. Florida State has never been in a tight game in the 4th. Winston seems cool under pressure, but I think Florida State thinks they already won this game while the idea of nobody thinking you can win is really motivating in preparation for an Auburn team. I think 10.5 points is just too much for a team like Florida State who I feel is unproven especially vs. a really good running team.

[b]Chargers +7 5.5* NFL POD; Chargers +250 1* bonus[/b]
If today's games were any indication that the NFL is now an offensive game even in the playoffs then I don't know what else to say. The Chargers have a better offense in almost every statistical category. Rivers is 5th in yards per play and #1 in third down efficiency, but the biggest reason for Rivers resurgence has been the play of a healthy offensive line. You see dividends being paid to the running backs as well with Ryan Mathews coming on strong and the always fun to watch Danny Woodhead. Down the stretch though Keenan Allen has been great and some would say even better than A.J. Green who was held under 100 yards receiving in all 6 of his last games. Allen had 5 TD's in his last 3 games and has a 67.6% catch rate on targets to Green's 54%.

We are getting tremendous value here because the public's perception on the Bengals is extremely high because they have won and covered all 8 of their games, but this is the playoffs and Marvin Lewis has yet to win here and Andy Dalton is just far too inconsistent and makes too many mistakes that are magnified in these type of games. The Chargers are playing with house money and even have a little revenge after they lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals in a game that was decided by turnovers. Rivers and the Chargers have been on a roll since and are the hot team that I think can do a lot of damage in the playoffs. This is not the same Chargers team that would easily lose on the road and it's finally Rivers time to step up and get a big win in the playoffs after being so dominating in December over his career he's truly an elite QB and the Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 January and 0-4 ATS int heir last 4 playoff games.

Oakland -130 4* NCAAB POD
Oakland is ranked 11th in SOS RPI having already faced UNC, UCLA, Cal, Gonzaga, Indiana and Michigan State while Valpo is 137th and I think that strength of schedule will benefit them int his game. Valpo struggles defending the three and turns the ball over too much. Oakland has played well at home while Valpo has struggled big time.

Davidson -2 2.75* bonus
Much like Oakland Davidson has played a tough schedule that will benefit them going into conference play. Davidson is 24th SOS RPI while Wofford is 248. Both played Georgia early on with Davidson winning big while Wofford was not even close losing by 20 points and getting out rebounded by 21.

Chiefs -1.5 4.4* NFL POD U47 2.2* bonus The under is 20-6 in the Chiefs last 26 games after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the previous game and 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a winning team. For the Colts the under is 15-6 in their last 21 home games and I really expect them to struggle today. The Chiefs gave up a ton of points down the stretch which really gives u some value here because their defense was really worn down to close the year. They just played these Colts a few weeks ago where Andrew Luck had 23 points on the road and I think they hold him under that total. Three times this year Andrew Luck faced a defense for the second time and 3 times he scored less points and this time he goes against a rested defense that's tops in the league. Luck is a star in this league, but the elite defenses are just a bit ahead of him as far as making adjustments. For KC their offense gets to face a bad rushing defense on the road and that has only happened once this year and they won 23-13 on the road over Buffalo. I really think this offense was held back in recent weeks once they knew they were not going to get the bye and would likely face the Colts in round 1. Chiefs offense has scored more the second time around this season 24 to 56 and 17 to 28 vs. Denver and Oakland and then 38 to 24 vs. the Chargers without their starters in there. I expect this offense to put up something in the 20's while holding the Colts in the teens.

Ohio State -2.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
There are a lot of statistics I went through this game before making a selection, but the last thing I looked at was the coaching and the edge is clearly on Urban Meyer. Clemson under Swinney are 2-3 SU and ATS in bowl games and they are 11-6 SU and 8-8 ATS following a loss which once again they came off of against South Carolina a superior opponent. Urban Meyer throughout his career is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS following a loss. We already saw when Michigan State beat Stanford that the loss was legit. We also saw Iowa give LSU everything they could so the Big Ten is gaining respect and I think we get this line at a value. Also Meyer is 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games and don't forget Ohio State has not been able to go since the 2011 season. I don't see that you'll see the traditional hang over from being one game away from the National Championship.

Now that we have the better coach on our side I took a look at what each team does well and where there struggles were and can they over come them to win this game? With that said I think we all know that both teams have great offenses and the defenses are not very good. Can Clemson stop Ohio State's nation leading rushing attack? The answer is no, actually it is an absolutely no chance no way. There were a lot of great running backs, but Carlos Hyde was the best one I saw all year. Braxton Miller is also easily a top rusher not as only a QB so stopping that just is not going to be possible. Clemson's run defense allowed 200+ to all 3 solid rushing teams they faced.

The #1 key in this game probably though is Ohio State's pass defense which really struggled and I think this is where the coaching comes into play. This is where the time off really benefits the Buckeyes and don't forget Urban Meyer played DB in college. Clemson is 86th in protecting their QB and Ohio State has a great pass rush ranking 28th in sack %. Noah Spence and Joey Bosa and Ryan Shazier are all top talents. Both South Carolina and Florida State featured top 40 pass rushes that defeated Clemson. Clemson has a 96 QB rating in their losses and a 175 QB rating in their wins. Ohio State is also great at getting tackles in the backfield with 89 on the season which is impressive for a Big 12 team. To put it in perspective Michigan State's had 91, and Clemson allowed 88, while Ohio State only had 46. Which sets us up for how a team is going to do on 3rd down.

Ohio State held opponents to 34% conversions on third down while Clemson held opponents to 31%, but in Clemson's losses they allowed 58% and we already established that Ohio State will play ahead of the chains all game long with their elite running tandem. They were 49% on third down this season better than Clemson's offense which was 44%. The same is transitioned over to the red zone where Ohio State was 83% on 60 attempts to Clemson 67% on 56 attempts. In the end the Buckeyes need and want a post season win and Urban Meyer is thirsty for one. Dabo Swinney got his big upset last year vs. LSU. I look for Ohio State to get a double digit win for us.

Oklahoma +17 2.2* play; Under 53 4.4* NCAAF POD
A few things working here in my opinion, but first off you have to realize that Alabama's schedule was extremely easy and the defenses they faced were not good. In fact they missed out on all the top SEC defenses and a faced a young LSU defense. You could easily argue that this is the best defense they've faced all year as Oklahoma is top 25 in passing and rushing defense. Virginia Tech arguably would be the best team they faced and you shouldn't be fooled by the 35-10 final score in that game. Virginia Tech actually out gained Alabama as they held them to 206 yards. There were two special team returns for TD's in that game and I don't see that happening again.

So we know Alabama's offense won't be able to just roll through this game, and when you add in the fact that there have been distractions of Heisman Trophy awards and Saban possibly going to Texas before securing a new big contracts and there are a lot of reasons why this offense and team probably is going to struggle in this game. Alabama is 3-10 ATS following a SU loss and it was a devastating one that cost them a 3rd national championship. Oklahoma is certainly going to have more energy in this game.

Oklahoma really only gave up big totals when they faced fast paced teams in Texas and Baylor who both had 80 and 82 plays against them. Alabama is 117th in plays per game so I expect a very vanilla grind it out type of game on both sides. Oklahoma's offense will struggle because in their two losses they could not run the ball and put up just 20 and 12 points. I'm expecting a 20-14 or 20-17 type game.

LSU -6.5 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Iowa's staple defeat was ironically Nebraska who we are backing and I don't think it was very impressive when you look at how banged up Nebraska was for that game then you add in the fact that they had 4 injuries during the game and it's not shock that a physical team like Iowa lost that game. Whenever Iowa had to step up their play to play an elite team they lost. They lost by 12 to Michigan State 10 to Ohio State and 19 to Wisconsin. I would not call Northern Illinois an elite team, but they do have a dominant rushing attack and Iowa lost to them as well. LSU is of the same caliber running the ball as Wisconsin and Ohio State and although Iowa was 18th vs. the run this year and feature some of the best linebackers they allowed 273 and 218 to those two teams. LSU should be able to move the ball on the ground even without the threat of Zack Mettenberger's arm. If anything I think Anthony Jennings will provide for a better rushing attack, because he is also a threat to rip off yards in chunks. Cam Cameron is a very good offensive mind and the extra time will allow him to put things into the game that fit to Jennings who has a ton of upside. It will help that Iowa is among the worst in the nation at getting to the QB ranking 75th in sack %. Jennings also has a pair of NFL ready receivers in Landry and Beckham that just don't exist in the Big Ten.

On the flip side LSU's defense is young and really emerged as the season went on. They held Johny Football to 10 points and the elite Auburn attack to 21 points. I really think the extra time benefits LSU's defense the most in this game and I don't Iowa can put up 10 points. Iowa lacks any type of player that can stretch a defense and change the game and LSU knows it. LSU has some great athletes and they should be able to cheat up and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. LSU owes their fans for the last two years with the collapse against Clemson and their shocking defeat in the Championship vs. Alabama. Iowa is not in the caliber of those two teams and I see LSU cruising to an easy victory by double digits.

[b]Boston College +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This game is going to be a very exciting game featuring two of the best running backs in the country in Ka'Deem Carey and Andre Williams. Looking at this game it's going to be important to stop the run, but both of these running backs have been pretty match up proof running well against even the best. However, I give the edge to Boston College's rushing defense ranked 36th in the country over Arizona ranked 73rd. Arizona did face a stronger dose of running games in the PAC 12, but not by far and their 3-3-5 defense is better for defending spread rushing offenses. Every time they faced a north and south rushing game like BC they were allowing big games. BC on the other hand played their best running the ball against top run defenses and defending against the top rushing offenses. They held Florida State to 159 yards and were the only team to really scare Florida State on the season and they played extremely well at Clemson. Boston College is much stronger in the front 7 with 14 more sacks and 12 more tackles for loss.

What type of run defenses did these two go up again? Arizona rarely had to go on the road to face a good run defense and only faced 5 top 50 run stop units all year and they'll face #6 in their bowl game while Boston College had to face 8 top 50 run defenses and many on the road. They faced two top 10 rushing defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State and they had 87 carries for 396 yards. Many will point to the USC game that both of these teams had to travel to as why Arizona is better at stopping or running the ball, but that's a ridiculous trip for BC who had to go on the road the next week to face FSU after traveling across the country. This game is going to start at 12:30 on New Years Eve and I give the edge to BC in that scenario. Overall I don't see a drastic difference between these two teams for there to be a 7 point spread.

Thought I spoke on the rushing games a ton there are QB's playing in this game that will be called upon and BC has the better more capable QB in Rettig and a WR in Alex Amidon while Arizona has a better secondary, but they lack a pass rush. I give a slight edge to BC for balance on offense and I would give them a decent shot at pulling off the upset thus the 7.5 points give us tremendous value here.

Ole Miss -3 -103 5.5* NCAAF POD
Georgia Tech running the triple option is a tough team to prepare for, but when you take a look at their success in bowl games it's obvious that the extra time definitely benefits the opposing team. Last year they beat USC in their bowl game, but they are 1-7 in their previous 8 bowl games and we see the same struggles from Navy who runs the same offense. Georgia Tech will run the ball over 75% of the time and Ole Miss is young on defense, but they have the athletes and talent to stop this triple option. They ranked 54th vs. the run this year, but what was even more impressive was how they did having to face 8 top 50 rushing offenses, 5 of which were in the top 25. Ole Miss had a much stronger schedule to work through and came up with big wins. The only big win that Georgia Tech came up with all year long was Duke and that was before anyone knew Duke was any good. Ole Miss was close on the road against Auburn, and they beat LSU. They did struggle down the stretch, but a win here and we will be looking at this team completely different. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and Ole Miss has had success in these bowl games I also think their offense is going to give Georgia Tech major issues.

Ole Miss is a balanced offense but when they can pass the ball they generally win. They were 36th in QB rating led by an experienced Bo Wallace. In wins this year Ole Miss had a 158 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Georgia Tech in wins allowed a 106 QB rating and in losses allowed a 180 QB rating. They only faced three teams with a better QB rating than Ole Miss and in all three games the defense allowed 45, 41 and 55 points. Georgia did not even have Aaron Murray and still hung up 41 points on Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech was 95th in yards per pass attempt 94th in QB rating and 85th in yards allowed. They played an average 59th ranked passing offense not including the two non FBS schools in Elon and Alabama A&M that helped skew some of their defensive and offensive stats on the season. Overall they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the SEC and Ole Miss is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. It looks too easy, but sometimes it is, go Rebels!

Bears +3 5.5* NFL POD

Miami +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If we are talking about strength of schedule Miami has played a far more challenging schedule on the year. In the end what really made me select this game was the match up for Louisville who really has not played that well this year at times against weak competition. Miami will be traveling 500 miles less than Louisville and they too will have a senior QB in Stephen Morris and a rushing game that even without Duke Johnson as they finished 28th in QB rating and 31st in rushing ypc.

You could say with those stats that Miami could beat you both ways. Now when you look at Louisville they have been absolutely great on defense, but this is the best offense they have faced since Central Florida beat them and Miami is probably a little bit more balanced and better. Nobody else was even close as they only faced 1 team in the top 70 in rushing yards per carry with Central Florida ranking 64th. They faced 3 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they lost the game to Central Florida and only won by a TD to both Cinci and Houston. Now Miami has weaknesses in their passing defense, but I think they will be able to match Louisville point for point and in the end there is just too much value on Miami who will be playing in their home state.

4.4** NCAAB POD

[b]Bobcats +7.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
I like the Bocats here as the Thunder could not be hotter yet they are a single digit favorite against the Bobcats?? The public is pounding the Thunder and the line is moving the other way. A closer look and we see the Thunder really won't care about this game as they are 5-12 ATS int heir last 17 vs. the NBA Southeast. They are more concerned with being fresh for their next game vs. the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile the Bobcats are quietly winning some basketball games as they have played solid defense on the season and they have a couple extra days of rest. They beat the Warriors, nearly beat teh Pacers and Heat on the road and continue to get better as the season progresses.

Syracuse +4 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
Syracuse lost this game at Minnesota last year, but mostly due to being -4 in turnover margin and they still only lost by 7 on the road. This game will be played on neutral field in Texas. Revenge is definitely a factor, but I think we are also getting some nice value here because the public has pounded Minnesota and one could only think why.... Syracuse lost to Penn State and Northwestern to open the season while Minnesota beat both those teams. Syracuse was expected to struggle especially early in the season with a completely new coaching staff and a new QB, but they have turned their season around nicely.

When looking at this game it's all about the running games. Minnesota is 6th with a run play % at 67% while Syracuse is 39th with a 56.3%. I like the 4 points because it's hard to see Minnesota blowing any one out with the style of football they play. A deeper look at what each team does when they win and when they lose directly ties that success to running the football and stopping the run. So I took a deeper look at each team's rushing offense and defenses.

Lets start with the running defenses. Minnesota allowed over 5ypc to 4 of their last 5 opponents and ranked 90th. Syracuse has only faced one opponent outside the top 60 in run defense and they won that game 24-10. Minnesota did play plenty of top rushing attacks, but their non-conference schedule was against some bad Mountain West teams while Syracuse scheduled the Big 10. Syracuse averages 5.25 ypc in their wins vs. 3.82 in their losses and they have two capable RB in Gulley who is back and Smith. The x-factor is their QB Terrel Hunt who averaged nearly 5 ypc and is a very under rated thrower from what I saw in the Boston College game. Syracuse should be able to run the ball here considering they ranked 45th doing so against 9 top 50 run defenses who on average ranked 40th. I can not say the same for Minnesota.

When Minnesota has the ball they are far more 1 dimenstional than Syracuse and Syracuse on the surface has better stats stopping the run. They held Penn State at home to 1.5 ypc this year while Minnesota held them to 5.3 ypc. I throw the Northwestern common game out because Minnesota did not have to face them early in the year with a healthy Kain Colter who missed that game against Minnesota. Syracuse also stopped this same rushing attack in Minnesota a year ago holding them to 2.6 ypc. Syracuse should be able to do the same when they know what is coming and Minnesota can't win when they can't run. Minnesota's 54th ranked rushing game played an average 60th ranked rushing defense with only 5 in the top 40 in run defense like Syracuse. They went 1-4 in those 5 games.

Turnovers are also a big issues for these two teams and neither one really has a considerable advantage as Minnesota is +9 in wins and -6 in losses while Syracuse is +8 in wins and -6 in losses. I will say this though Syracuse takes more chances they are +16 in tackles for loss and +14 in sacks compared with Minnesota who is +1 and -6. Those are the type of plays that cause turnovers. Syracuse is also better in third down defense. Overall though I think Terrel Hunt at QB for Syracuse is the difference maker that gets Syracuse the upset here today.

Utah State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD
We spoke in depth about the MAC and their struggles vs top teams and just plainly they are not very good. The Mountain West plays against the PAC 12 which is the #2 conference behind SEC, and Utah State played 2 teams out of that conference losing both games by less than a TD combined. Northern Illinois played Iowa out of the Big Ten and then ran through their cup cake schedule in the MAC before facing an actual defense in the championship game and their defense was exposed. Northern Illinois defense is a real weakness and Utah State is balanced on offense and defense, but the big key here is Utah State's strength in run defense vs. Northern Illinois rushing offense which ranked 4th, so lets take you through that, but before we do it's worth noting that the Mac faced off against the Mountain West conference and were favorites, but Buffalo was flat out dominated by San Diego State.

Northern Illinois ranked 4th in rushing 16th in run play % making it easy for any defense to come up with a game plan to defeat them. Stop the run, which is something Utah State is ranked 10th in yards allowed and 3rd in yards per carry allowed. Northern Illinois schedule makes it no surprise why they were so good running the ball, but Jordan Lynch still deserves credit, but in the big game of the year he made mistakes throwing the ball. Northern Illinois faced 1 top 50 rushing defense, and they faced 5 that were ranked 112th or worse. Iowa only won 30-27, but Iowa lacks offensive balance and playmakers which is something Utah State has more of even without their star QB Chuckie Keeton.

Utah State should be able to contain Lynch with star LB Jake Doughty and Zach Vigil. This rushing defense was legit as they did not allow a single rushing offense over 3.75 ypc and they faced a ton of talented running games with 5 in the top 30 and 8 in the top 50 in rushing ypc. Opponents had only 8 rushing touchdowns and it's no surprise that their red zone defense and third down defense were just flat out dominant allowing 32% and 41% in the red zone for TD percentage. This rushing defense faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses from a ypc perspective in their last 3 games and they held them to 1.12 ypc, 0.97 ypc and 1.60 ypc. That's just dominant and we saw against Bowling Green that Jordan Lynch could not throw and beat a solid pass defense which Utah State also has. Utah State ranked 22nd in opposing QB rating, 21st in opposing QB pass completion %, 24th in sack % and 41st in yards per attempt.

The offenses are a wash statistically which should surprise you considering the defenses that you face in the MAC which to me means Utah State has the better offense and we already know they have the better defense. Utah State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non conference games while Northern Illinois is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games while this game will be held in San Diego which is much closer for Utah State.

South Carolina +4.5 -102 4* NCAAB POD
South Carolina was totally due for a hang over game on Monday after they shocked St. Mary's as a +10 underdog. Now they get to regroup after suffering a humiliating defeat to Boise State by 26 points. I look for this team to bounce back nicely against Akron who lost to St Mary's as a +9.5 under dog. I think Carolina is getting a bit of line value here. Akron is not used to being the favorite this season and they did lose to St Mary's by 22 earlier this year. Akron just lives and dies by the 3 and South Carolina has defended it well. Akron is also a terrible free throw shooting team at just over 60%. I look for the Gamecocks to really take this game and look forward to hosting Akron in 3 days again at home which is only a coincidence.

[b]Bulls/Nets U187.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
We catch some value on this line here this morning as the Nets have been running into a bunch of high totals because they've either played a bad defense or a good offense, but never a bad offense and good defense which is what they'll get today out of the Chicago Bulls who are top 5 in defense and bottom 5 in offense. The Nets veteran squad has a enough veteran defensive leadership to really dominate this game and limit Bulls who are close to becoming the first team in over a decade to average less than 90 points per game which is uncharacteristic of any pro offense these days. The Bulls have actually gone under 14-4 in their last 18 games with a total listed in the 180's while also going under 23-8 in their last 31 road games vs. a losing home team with a win % less than .400.

Oregon State -3 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before you dive too deep into stats you have to have an appreciation for each team's schedule and the one thing we noticed right off the bat was just how much better the Pac 12 was compared with the Mountain West. That was not always true in years past, but the Pac 12 was definitely an elite conference in 2013. Oregon State's strength of schedule was ranked 14th compared to Boise who was ranked 79th. The PAC 12 went 10-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and USC dominated the MWC Champion Fresno State in their bowl game winning 45-20. Washington State had a 45-30 lead over Colorado State with 4 minutes to play before they fumbled multiple times to lose in regulation as the only loss the Pac 12 has had vs. the Mountain West. This is the first reason I really like Oregon State.

The next reason has to do with the coaching change going on with Boise State as Chris Peterson finally moved on and took the Washington job. Of all the teams to lose their coach, Boise would be the one team I would say would be impacted by it the most. Then you look at the news and they already sent their starting QB home from the bowl for violating team rules. You can guess what that means.... Boise is enjoying this as a vacation where I think Oregon State has the better coach and control over their players. Oregon State lost their last 5 games of the season so they are hungry to go off on a high note especially with a senior laden team led by their QB Sean Mannion. They faced 5 top 50 pass defenses down the stretch and 3 were in the top 20. I was not surprised that they struggled down the stretch which leads me to my 3rd major reason why Oregon State will win this game.

Oregon State is ranked 3rd in the nation with a passing play % of 65% so to beat them you have to be able to stop the pass which is evident by their struggles down the stretch vs. top passing defenses of the PAC 12. Boise is not very good at stopping the pass and Sean Mannion feasted on his other opponents this year with 29 TD's and only 4 INT if you were not ranked in the top 50 in pass defense. He has a serious weapon in Brandin Cooks who was the nation's best WR winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award. Boise ranked 77th in opposing QB rating, 103rd in completion % defense and 91st in yards allowed. On the flip side Oregon State's pass defense has been great all year coming up with a 115 QB rating allowed in road games. with 15 interceptions and Boise lost when they couldn't pass having a QB rating that was 61 points less in their losses.

Ohio +14.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD; Ohio +460 1* bonus
I don't see why Ohio can not win this game and the value is there at +460 for sure. Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Conference USA and they beat both North Texas and Marshall this year who were two of the best in the conference. East Carolina is now 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. a winning team and their 4 game winning streak that gave them momentum into the Marshall game that they lost 28-59 was agaainst the worst of the CUSA conference. The 4 wins came against a combined 7-41 team record from their opponents. East Carolina's offense was not as good as it was in years past being far too one dimensional ranking 102nd in rushing yards and 10th in passing and go up against Ohio's 29th ranked passing defense that held Rakeem Cato to 1 TD and 1 INT.

What I like most about this game is East Carolina probably is not too pumped to be here. When you look at their year they almost went 3-0 against the ACC, but lost 10-15 against Virginia Tech. Playing Ohio in the Beef O Brady bowl is nothing glamorous when they thought they were headed to the CUSA Championship and then possibly the Liberty Bowl to face an SEC team. Now Ohio had a very up and down year, but they were consistent as far as what type of teams they struggled against. Their 5 losses came because their offense struggled. Ohio is a team that can be effective running the ball against good run defense, but when they can't pass they are in serious trouble. All 5 losses came against very good secondaries as Kent State was 27th vs. the pass, Bowling Green 4th, Buffalo 38th, Central Mich 20th, and Louisville 8th. East Carolina's pass defense was exposed down the stretch. They ranked 90th in passing yards allowed and played the following opponents ranking 86, 70, 35, 83, 108, 112, 117, 121, 77, 91, 19. Not a lot of capable passers and Ohio's 5th year senior Tyler Tettleton has a major chip on his shoulder and is a very good QB.

Ravens -2 5.5* NFL POD
Here come the Ravens again, and the Patriots come off a tough loss that was way over due in my opinion. The Patriots have been on a miracle run that finally ended, but almost didn't last week in Miami. I'll fade them here again, because they continue to beat bad teams and their injuries at this point in the year have just become too much. Nate Solder suffered another concussion last week and the offensive line has been in flux all year for these Pats. Tom Brady has done wonders and deserves a ton of credit. However, now he has to face a top 10 pass defense again and he's struggled big time against those. The Ravens are also 3rd in third down defense and 3rd in completion % this is a team that Brady won't be able to just dink and dunk down the field with ease. The Ravens are not afraid to get agressive and pressure these WR.

For Baltimore it's been the Super Bowl hang over, but their offense all of a sudden is clicking. Dennis Pitta is a big reason for that and Joe Flacco continues to play his best when his team really needs him. I think this game will be another example of that as the Ravens need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

UL Lafayette +3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
I'm grabbing this now before it goes to a pk or even Lafayette as a favorite if you have +125 at your book play the money line. The spread is off in some places for the uncertainty of Terrance Broadway, but he took snaps on Wednesday and threw the ball 50 times before Mark Hudspeth closed practice. These are two local teams that will get to play in the New Orleans bowl and I'm backing the team that is making their third straight trip in Lafayette who have covered as 6 point favorites and 6 point under dogs winning both games.

We get value here because Lafayette down the stretch struggled losing 2 games straight and I believe that if they wanted to they could have won those games. Mark Hudspeth had some interesting comments and I even faded this team at South Alabama in their last game. They had no incentive in that game other than an outright Sun Belt championship which is now shared, but they believe they won which is all that matters. They won @ Arkansas State 23-7 and Hudspeth is using that as motivation for this bowl game, because many are talking about how they struggled down the stretch, but again I'm not worried. I believe Lafayette is the far superior team here and should dominate against a Tulane team that has literally no offense.

Tulane has been great on defense, but I think they will struggle against a top tier offense like Lafayette on turf with time to prepare. Lafayette is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 following a loss and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 on turf and their last 21 on turf have gone over 15-5-1. Tulane is 118th in offense, 106th in pass and 103rd in rushing and failed to crack 200 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Lafayette has Alonzo Harris and Elijah McGuire out of the backfield who combined for over 1600 yards. Tulane will have their hands full and expect to see them pass to open up the run early in this game whether it's Broadway or Brooks Haack. Either way I expect to see both and I expect Lafayette to win.

[b]Michigan -2 5.5* NCAAB POD[/b]
Michigan comes off a really tough loss last week against Arizona in a game I had them on the money line. I really thought the refs cheated them of a victory with some key foul calls, but I think they will rebound nicely here on Saturday night against a PAC12 team that is traveling all the way to the east coast to play in Brooklyn. For Stanford they had not beaten anyone and despite returning a ton of experience that's been the issue for this team that has not gotten to an NCAA Tournament under their current coach. However, they come off what has to feel like a huge victory over Uconn 53-51, but now they are in a serious let down spot playing a Michigan team that has had all week to prepare against them while Stanford played Wednesday night.

Michigan's ability to hit 3's in this game is going to be the difference along with their athleticism and aggressive play in transition. I don't think Stanford has the players to beat them. After all Michigan nearly upset #1 Arizona out of the Pac 12 and they are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 following a SU loss. Michigan owns the 14th toughest schedule thus far and it is about to start paying dividends at the ticket window.

Bobcats +6.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Bobcats have played better than any other team on the road this year and the Pistons come into this game in a potential let down spot after just beating the Celtics and the Pacers on the road. If anything they are a bit over valued. I don't think they play enough defense to cover this spread and the Bobcats have nothing to look ahead to while the Pistons are starring at the Rockets on Saturday night. The under dog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings as well.

Auburn +5.5 3.3* play

[b]Twolves -2 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
This is the 4th game in 5 days all on the road for the Blazers who have to start coming down to earth. The Timberwolves are on an extra day of rest after losing 2 of 3 on the road and need a big home win. I see this team coming up with a big home win as the Blazers struggled with the Cavs last night and now Lamarcus Aldridge is not 100% after injuring his hand last game. The Twolves are without Kevin Martin, but he's only shooting 40.6% so I do not see him as a huge loss. The favorite is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings as well.

4.4** NCAAB POD

[b]Lions -4.5 4.4* NFL POD / Lions -3 -120 1H 2* play[/b]
The Ravens have not played a winning team in over a month and are dead last in yards per play. Their offense has been very bad all year long and now they have to go on the road to play the Lions in an environment that is tough to play in. Detroit is 2nd in the league with 6.4 yards per play at home, and they are 7th overall. Stafford is due for a huge game after the Lions have slipped and lost 3 of 4. I expect him to bounce back with a huge game on Baltimore. Baltimore has allowed 105.8 QB rating in road games and they lack a corner that can cover any type of big name receiver like Calvin Johnson. The Lions also get Reggie Bush back this evening which should make for some more offense for a team that's anxious after playing in the snow bowl last week against Philadelphia. Baltimore's only chance is to get to the QB and pressure him which they have done a good job of, but Detroit is 2nd in fewest sacks allowed. The Lions will give Stafford time which is not going to be good news for the Ravens.

[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
This is the exact time of year where playing Miami becomes a challenge from northern teams. Temperatures in the mid 80's and high humidity is something that you can't just get used to in a couple of days and because of that Miami will have an advantage. The Dolphins are also fighting for a playoff spot and traditionally have always played the Patriots tough. The Patriots have been pulling off insane victories and that simply can not continue especially on the road against a team that knows them as well as the Dolphins do. The Dolphins had the lead in New England at half time and were dominating the Patriots before Brady and co made half time adjustments and won. The Dolphins remember that and I think they will have some revenge here. They simply are playing much better football since the Johnathan Martin ordeal has been put to bed, winning 3 of their last 4 to get back into contention.

Utah +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Even though this is not a conference game it is still a big rivalry game for these two programs. It's called the Holy War game in college football and there is nothing lost in the college basketball match up that BYU has dominated by winning 7 straight. It's obvious this is not just another game to Utah. Especially listening to some of the interviews with Utah's head coach Larry Krytkawaiak, "we will scratch and claw and try to win." I think this is Utah's best chance to win in many years after they lost by only 3 last year on the road as a 12.5 point under dog. They've got some players including junior college transfer Delon Wright who is as dynamic as any other player on the court to pair along with Jordan Loveridge who was only a freshman last year. Wright has ridiculous stats with over 6 rebounds, over 6 assists, over 3 steals and over 16 points per game. Utah wants this more and BYU could be peaking ahead to Oregon who they play next.

[b]Bulls -1 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Bulls who have been decimated by injuries are starting to get healthy as they got Jimmy Butler back in their last game and they hope to have Deng back on Saturday. The Raptors meanwhile made a big trade sending Rudy Gay away and bringing in Vasquez, Patterson and Salmons. When you mess with the dynamic of a team you will struggle a bit to find chemistry and even though they won their first game I think they will struggle on the road especially with 0 days rest and no time to practice or put a plan together to face off against a Bulls team that is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Toronto won't have enough offense in this game and the Bulls will look to build momentum off their win last night.

[b]Navy -12 4.4* NCAAF POD / 2.75* Teaser Navy -6 & Over 45[/b]
Army has had a rough year and their QB Angel Santiago has not been effective with 3.4 ypc taking over for a 4 year starter in Trent Steelman who was in tears last year when he fumbled away Army's chance at the commander in chief trophy. Army lost to Air Force while Navy won so the trophy and the motivation is clearly on Navy's side. Even though Army will always be up for this game I think Navy is just so much better this year. Navy's offense has clicked with Keenan Reynolds back after he took the game's MVP a year ago as a freshmen. Reynolds has improved drastically nearly doubling his rushing yards and scoring 16 more TD's. He's led an offense that is converting on 3rd down 12% more of the time and in the red zone 14% more of the time. This offense also does not turn the ball over with 8 lost all year and have a +9 turnover margin. Army's defense has faced 4 teams that runt he ball significantly more than they pass and they allowed the following point totals, 34, 48, 25, and 42 with the following run defense stats, 5.79, 7.80, 5.71, and 7.46 to Air Force. Navy should have no problem running all over Army and putting up 30+ points in this game and I actually see them getting close to 40, because this game is going to be all about TD's especially in the snow.

Army on the other side will go up against Navy's defense that has been inconsistent and I think far worse than what the stats say. However, Navy is better at making adjustments and they have more talent. Navy can stop the triple option better holding Air Force to 4.05 ypc. Although that game was at home. However, I do like the over in this game as well because of the weather, but also because Navy's defense is really weak against the run and they are as bad as they have ever been on 3rd down defense and in the red zone they are just awful at stopping teams. Both teams are going to go for it a ton on 4th down and we will see no field goal attempts in this one. navy has only faced two teams that run the ball first as their main strategy. We mentioned Air Force, but they also faced Toledo who averaged 6.98 ypc against them. Despite that fact they still allowed 5 teams to rush for more than 200 yards this year. Still at the end of the day I like them -12 because of what is on the line and because of how their offense played down the stretch along with Army's inability to stop anyone on defense. I mean Temple scored 33 on them.

[b]Grizzlies +2.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Just working our way into this NBA season with selective picks and tonight I think we have value here on the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies come into this game a bit banged up, but now they get to face a team in the Hornets who are too without their best player in Anthony Davis. Memphis also wants a little revenge after they lost to the Hornets at home in early November. The Grizzlies have been playing much better on the road and in fact have won 5 straight on the road including 2 as under dogs. The Hornets have won 7 of their last 100 but they haven't cover any of their last 8 games vs. the West. They are getting wins against the East, but when they play the West they are just over valued right now. They have not beaten an elite team at home just yet losing to the Pacers, Warriors, Mavericks and Thunder and are coming off an OT win over the Pistons. I look for Memphis to step up here and get another key road win with a little revenge. They are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over 45.5 5.5* NFL POD
Okay Carolina's defense gets a lot of hype, but who have they faced? They have faced just 3 teams inside the top 15 in yards per play while the Saints are #6 in the league and by far the best the Panthers have faced and they have to do it in a loud dome in a controlled environment. Drew Brees also should have a bounce back game I can't see this offense scoring less than 20 points in three straight games.
The Panthers on the other hand should be able to put up points they put up 44 and 35 on this defense last year. The Saints defense is strong vs. the pass because of their pass rush, but that's not something you can rely on with Cam Newton's ability in the pocket. I think the Panthers will be able to score some points and at least get to 20 in this game because of their running game and how good their passing game is when they are able to effectively run the ball.
The Saints -3 looks like the biggest trap on the board on Sunday and I'm not falling for it. We are not taking the Panthers -3 either, because I do believe the Saints will put up points in this one and this line on the total gives us value since it was in the 50's last year. The Panthers are a dangerous team on the turf and they'll show it here. Over in their last 4 games on turf. The Saints offense always seems to show up in big games at home and they are 11-4 on the over in their last 15 vs. a winning team.

[b]Missouri -1 +102 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I'm taking the Tigers in the SEC Championship.. What does Auburn have left at this point? They just beat their most hated rival in emotional fashion. I think this Auburn team has been very lucky at points and Nick Saban handed them that game with some questionable coaching decisions and 4 missed field goals. Missouri has to feel like they are getting no respect for the lack of media attention and that just fuels them and fits in with their season long mantra. Nobody thought this Missouri team belonged last year, but very quietly Gary Pinkel has his team in contention to get to Pasadena. Pinkel has to remember a similar situation 6 years ago ranked #1 losing in the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma. Now he has a second chance at something truly special. There will not be a lack of preparation in this spot.

Who is Missouri? I said it last week after week this team is completely balanced and really does not have a weakness. Their offense is balanced and as explosive as any offense is with Henry Josey at RB averaging well over 6 ypc, James Franklin an accurate mistake free QB, and the big receivers in a spread offense that's going to be a nightmare for Auburn's over rated defense. Auburn struggled vs. Georgia and A&M both who have balanced offenses. Now they found a way to win those games, but lets be honest they were extremely lucky that Manziel missed 2 possessions due to an injury and they won on a miracle play vs. Georgia. Missouri beat both of those teams, has just as good of an offense and a far better defense.

Why Is Missouri better? Let's look at conference averages. In conference play Auburn has allowed 4.7 ypc while Missouri has allowed 3.53. In conference play Missouri has allowed a 121 QB rating while Auburn has allowed 137. This is simply a miserable match up for Auburn because Missouri has the athleticism and speed to turn Nick Marshall into a pocket passer and force him to make mistakes which I think will happen as Missouri has the longest active streak of forcing at least 1 turnover in a game. Auburn is -1 turnover margin in conference play while Missouri is +11. Auburn's offense is more one dimensional than people will admit. Nick Marshall has had a nice season and has made plays with arms when he's had to but now he faces the best corner in the SEC in E.J. Gaines who just got done shutting down All American Mike Evans to 4 receptions for 8 yards. Sammy Coates is like the only receiving weapon for Auburn another reason why I feel this is just a bad match up for Auburn. Auburn will get their yards, but Missouri will force the turnovers and be more explosive on offense and they'll come up with what I think will be a 7+ point win.

[b]Bowling Green +3.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
The wrong team is favorited in this match up and I'm taking the points with great value. Northern Illinois is a tremendous team, but they are flawed and one dimensional. They have significant issues stopping the pass and have struggled to stop the run at times as well. Their defense was much stronger last year and now they have to face Bowling Green that is just a much more complete team. Don't buy into all the hype on one player. Football is a team sport and Bowling Green statistically does not have many weaknesses. They are top 10 in defense in the country and top 30 in offense without being ranked out side the top 40 in rushing or passing offense/defense as well as scoring or rushing defense.

Northern Illinois has only played 1 team inside the top 50 in rushing defense and the majority of their opponents rank 95th or worse vs. the run. Lynch won't be able to pass the ball in this game and Bowling Green can reliever their linebackers to concentrate 100% on the run which will be the difference. I think Bowling Green is far too dominant on this side of the ball and they've gotten better as the year has gone on. They are better on third down offensively and defensively and the same goes in the red zone where they have only allowed 10 possessions in their red zone in conference play. Northern Illinois is more than double that. Matt Johnson and his offense will find time with a balanced attack, dominate the time of possession while Jordan Lynch will struggle to find his way.

Texans -3 4.4* NFL POD[/b]
It's not often that you see a 2-10 team as a road favorite at a 3-9 team that has won 3 of their last 4 games. However, the Texans have been in most of their games and even nearly upset New England last week. Gary Kubiak is back on the side line which should only help. Many believe they would have beaten the Colts if Kubiak didn't miss that game and they nearly beat the Chiefs on the road too. The Jaguars have just been awful at home all year long and part of it is the pressure of playing at home and nowt hey have to face a pissed off Texans team that wants revenge for their 6-13 loss just two weeks ago at home. I think part of the reason why the Jaguars have played better on the road is because teams have just been checking those games off as wins, but the Jaguars are going to struggle to move the ball against a Texans defense that is still ranked #3 in the league meanwhile the Texans should be able to rebound from the 6 points they put up against the Jaguars last time. The offense showed a clear improvement from having Kubiak on the sideline in last week's game.

[b]Thunder +2.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
I'll take the better defensive team going up against a team off a huge win. The Blazers just beat the Pacers at home handing the Pacers only their second loss of the season. The Blazers have been a surprise this year, but I don't think they are ready to handle the intensity of back to back games against elite opponents. The Thunder dominated this series last year and have been good on 0 days rest in the past. None of their players played over 40 minutes last night so I think they'll be in good position to win this game outright.

Virginia -3.5 2.2* pod

Over 47.5 4.4* NFL POD
There are a couple of reasons why I like the over which includes the reason I could not play the Seahawks even thought I wanted to. One reason is Seattle is without their nickle corner and starting corner backs. It is unknown how the other two will play, but with extra time to prepare you better believe that Drew Brees will make sure he takes advantage. To me that means Brees is going to put up points in this game especially since Seattle has struggled guarding TE's at point this year.

On the flip side Seattle will get there points as well and I believe they will score over 30 in this game. Dating back to last year when they really opened things up a bit more for Russell Wilson this team has put up big numbers on the scoreboard when facing a team that struggles defending the rush. The Saints are 28th this year allowing 4.8 ypc and in the Seahawks last 7 games against the bottom 3rd rushing defenses they have put up the following point totals 28, 58, 50, 41, 33, 28, 45. I don't think it's a coincidence that when they are able to run the ball Russell Wilson is just that much more dangerous.

The extra time to prepare will definitely benefit the offenses who in this day of age of the NFL are always ahead of the defenses. The Saints are over the total 7-0 in their last 7 following a bye while the Seahawks are 13-3 over the total in their last 16 following a bye. I think we get some value here on the total based on the Seahawks "defensive" label and home field as well as the fact that The Saints "defense" has been better and just got done winning 17-13 against the Falcons in a low scoring game, but those two teams know each other extremely well. Seattle and New Orleans do not and that will benefit the offenses. The over is also 11-3 in the Saints last 14 vs. a winning team while it's over 23-8 in the Seahawks last 31 vs. a winning team. The bigger the game the more these offenses have advantages. This should be an exciting game that I can see either team winning if Seattle's secondary is exposed, but either way I feel strongly about this over.

Colts -3.5 5.5* MAX POD[/b]
This is a huge game for the Colts and despite being blown out in 2 of their last 3 games a win today and they will have essentially wrapped up the division. Colts have been great following a loss in the Andrew Luck era going 8-0 and they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss. This year they have beaten the 49ers by 20 on the road and Denver at home by 6 following a loss. Colts will face the Titans this time in a match up they have dominated. The Titans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the AFC South and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games with revenge following a home loss to the same team. Tennessee is off a road win last week so here comes your let down vs. the Colts who were embarrassed last week in Arizona which we predicted.

I think the biggest reason why I see the Colts dominating this game will be there decision to start Donald Brown over Trent Richardson. The Titans have given up multiple TD's to running backs in 5 of their last 6 games which should open things up a bit for Andrew Luck. Brown had 14 carries for 80 yards and 2 TD's in the last match up. This Colts team actually went on to dominate the last match up after they fell behind 14-0. The move to Brown will allow them to get a head start and have a lead at half time for the first time in a long time. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been great, but he's due for a game where he makes mistakes and I think this will be that game.

Syracuse +3 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is fighting for their 6th victory at home in the Carrier Dome and they'll need to beat a hot Boston College team that suddenly has a Heisman Trophy candidate. Andrew Williams has 2,073 rushing yards and BC will run the ball 66% of the time and when they do pass it they will pass the ball to Alex Amidon 50% of the time. Not a hard offense to figure out which is why they have issues in the red zone and on third down converting only 29% of their 3rd down attempts in conference play and 40% of ther red zone attempts on the road.

Syracuse has a good recipe to come up with the upset in their own building. Syracuse has a nasty front 7 that's capable of dominating a running game. They've only allowed 2.64 ypc at home and only 4 rushing TD's, but what is more impressive is they have not allowed a single running back to get over 100 yards all year long. Marquis Spurill, Cameron Lynch and Dyshawn Davis will have their eyes on Williams all day long. On the flip side Syracuse needs to run the ball to win and BC is allowing 4.21 ypc on the road. The twin duo of Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley and the threat of Terrel Hunt running will be enough to move the ball and pick up first downs. This team is better at picking up third downs and in the red zone. BC is allowing 74% red zone TD % on the road this year and they are completely one dimensional. Chase Rettig is a good QB at home, but on the road he's just not good. Syracuse is allowing 145 less yards at home than BC is on the road and I don't think they should be favorites.

Buffalo +130 5.5* NCAAF POD / Under 51 2.2* bonus
Buffalo will play their game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of the Bills on Friday with a chance to face off against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship on the line. I believe the wrong team is favored here based on perception, because Bowling Green was expected to get back to the MAC Championship, but nobody saw this Buffalo thing happening and now they get a major game at home in an NFL Stadium where it's not easy to play.

Let's get the total out of the way. Both teams possess dominant defenses in MAC play with run first options. Both teams are solid on third down defense and both teams don't turn the ball over. So I expect this to go under the total. Especially since a shot at Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship is on the line which always makes for a better defensive performance.

Buffalo opened the season at Baylor and at Ohio State. It does not get any more difficult than that. They also went on the road to face Toledo as their third toughest game. Meanwhile Bowling Green had Toledo at home and traveled to Indiana and Miss State. SOS on the side of Buffalo and they also have the two best players in this game. Brandon Oliver is a beast and while Bowling Green has been a rock against the run they are allowing 4.48 ypc on the road. Buffalo is running the ball impressively in conference play averaging over 5 ypc, which is better than Bowling Green's rushing offense of 4.87. Buffalo is also defending the run better in conference play and is just near impossible to run on at home allowing just 2.60 ypc. It also helps if you have a threat of throwing the ball.

Buffalo absolutely has that in Joe Licata who has 21 TD to 6 interceptions which are again better than Matt Johnon's 17 and 6. The biggest difference however will come along the offensive line where Bowling Green has had major issues ranking 119th in pass protection allowing over 10% of Johnson's drop backs to result in a sack. Buffalo is 3rd in the nation and have an aggressive front led by NFL prospect Khalil Mack. Buffalo is very good at protecting Licata ranking 19th in pass protection. This will be the difference in the game in my opinion, but it also does not hurt to know that Buffalo also has the advantage in TO margin, red zone TD%, on offense and defense, and they are better in conference play in third down defense holding opponents to only 27% conversions.

Miss State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
The Egg Bowl is a huge rivalry game that's back on Thanksgiving and I'm thankful for that. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings and we are catching Miss State as a 4.5 dog and I'm thankful for that. This is a hang over game for Ole Miss who just lost to Missouri on Saturday. Normally when teams suffer big losses they don't have to play 5 day later that's something that comes out of the NFL. Although they don't have to travel they still have to go on the road and that's a very challenging spot for a college team. Miss State is going to have much more energy on a very cold night that better suits their game plan. They are also playing for a bowl game because they are 5-6 while Ole Miss is 7-4. This is the exact opposite case as last year and we saw a Miss State that came out flat, already in a bowl game against an Ole Miss team fighting for a bowl game.

Ole Miss has definitely put themselves back on the map with an exciting offense and a top tier recruiting class. Bo Wallace at QB has been great, but I'm still not sold on him on the road. He's got a 118 QB rating on the road to his 161 at home this year and that's nothing new as he has a 122 on the road last year compared with 160 at home. Ole Miss needs to pass to move the ball and MIss State's secondary has been very good only allowing a QB rating of 119 at home. Throw in the fact that it will be in the 20's and Ole MIss struggled or at least let the weather bother them with drops in last weeks game. I'm just not sold on this offense putting up 30 or 40 points on the road and if they do their defense...

Is very small up front allowing over 5 yards per carry in conference play. They have no talent in the front 4 with solid linebackers behind them. That won't get it done against a run first team like Miss State which has been able to run the ball well. Even though they don't know who they will start at QB. I think that throws more question marks at Ole Miss who will be challenged to put together a defensive game plan. Either way Miss state should be able to run the ball as they are averaging 4.82 yards per carry in conference play and they have played all the big boys including Auburn, LSU, Bama, South Carolina and A&M and in non conference play they played the best out of the Big 12 in Oklahoma State who are 18th in the country vs. the run. To go along with that Miss State has been better offensively in the red zone and that's because they can run the ball. They are also better in third down defense allowing just 28% conversions at home, TO margin and many other key categories.

This is a huge rivalry and very big in state recruiting battle that Ole Miss won last year. I think it will be a big statement for Miss State to win this game so they can say they have won 4 out of the last 5.

[b]Raiders/Cowboys Over 47 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
This is my top play for Thanksgiving and I truly love it. First of all you have two teams that don't know each other very well on the account that they only face each other once every 4 years. If you blindly play the over on these AFC/NFC match ups you win money. I'm not blindly playing the over as I think the Cowboys defense which has been atrocious for most of the season will struggle again on Thursday. First of all they just came off their game of the season and I think the play of their defense was disguised by the weather and now they go back to Jerry World in a controlled environment. Their defensive line is all banged up and Oakland has proven they can put up points no matter who plays QB and that will be the case tomorrow. After all Dallas did allow the Vikings to score 27 on them at home and Oakland put up 28 on a much better defense just a few weeks ago.

With that said I also expect Oakland's defense to struggle. Dallas knows they have to win this game with their offense and Oakland does not have much time to put in a game plan on defense. In fact I think both offenses will benefit from the short week in this day and age of the NFL. Take the over as I predict Romo and the Cowboys win a high scoring game 34-24.

[b]Milwaukee Bucks +3 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
30% of the public are backing these Bucks and rightfully so as they are off back to back humiliating games, but much like the NFL on any given night any NBA team can win. I would agree that's even more so true in the NBA with the game riding on less people. Washington meanwhile just won 4 of 5, and is coming off wins against the Lakers and Knicks and has caught the public's attention. They are over valued at this point and I'll fade them in the right spot. Tonight is the right spot because the Wizards have the Pacers coming up next so it's a perfect let down spot with Thankgiving to follow tomorrow. I think Bucks win this one outright.

[b]Celtics +4 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
This game was just too hard to pass up. The Celtics have revenge after losing at home to the Bobcats earlier in the season. Boston has had a very challenging schedule while the Bobcats at 7-7 are a bit phony beating bad teams and have the leagues easiest schedule only facing 4 teams over .500 to date. In all 4 of those games they lost by double digits. The Bobcats just won and I hardly would be confident in them winning back to back games with a look ahead to the Pacers. Boston is stacked with young talent and can pull off upsets on any given night. They already have 3 outright road wins as significant under dogs including at Miami.

Patriots +117 5.5* NFL POD
Very rarely will you see the Patriots lose 2 in a row or even be under dogs in back to back weeks. Early in the season I thought this Patriots team was not very good, but it's evident that they are getting their weapons back and the offense has clicked in back to back weeks against two very good defenses. The Patriots have been dominating the second half of seasons for quite some time now and the same will happen this year as I see them finishing at 12-4. This game is much bigger for them than it is for Denver who is coming off a huge divisional win and will have to travel next week to Kansas City. Meanwhile the Patriots just came off a big loss to the Panthers on Monday night. Unlike some teams who can not come back and win under the pressure, Tom Brady and the Patriots are as good in this situation as any.

Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 37-21 ATS following one or consecutive losses. They are also 40-20 ATS as an under dog. Peyton Manning is 2-9 all time on the road against the Patriots who have a harder time vs. mobile QB's. Their secondary has not played that bad this year allowing a 78 QB rating which is good for 8th and they have a 64.7 QB rating at home. It's going to be a frigid night in New England and the tougher more emotional team will win and that's the Patriots who need this game more!

[b]Arizona State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Interesting how we have 65% or more of the public coming in on UCLA who is ranked higher than Arizona State but are under dogs in their own building. I'm going with Arizona State here for a few reasons including the fact that they will have some revenge from last year's 3 point loss at home.

The last 2 weeks have exposed UCLA a bit here and this offense that many consider elite is not. They struggle against elite front 7's and that's exactly what Arizona State has. UCLA start 3 freshmen along the offensive line and now they have been letting a linebacker run the ball? Myles Jack has been great and a good story, but he has had some fumble issues that he's lucky have not hurt him. Sutton, Bradfor and Coleman will dominate this game up front. UCLA is allowing Hundley to be sacked 7.21% of his drop backs while Arizona State is 22nd in sack %. That will be the difference in this game as Arizona State's secondary is very good allowing just 53% completions and have 17 interceptions. Hundley was very bad against the other two good pass defenses he faced throwing 1 TD and 4 interceptions.

Okay, so Arizona State flat out dominated Washington at home holding them to 212 yards while putting up 585. UCLA was out gained on a Friday night and were very lucky that Washington turned the ball over 4 times and their QB got hurt too. UCLA was so lucky that they jumped on 4 fumbles in the first half alone including one that Myles Jack lost and kicked 30 yards while two Huskies defenders squandered a chance to jump on the ball. It changed the entire aspect of that game. Arizona State is too opportunistic and is clearly the better team right now. UCLA's secondary is going to struggle and the no huddle offense will wear them down. Arizona State is just more experienced on both sides of the ball and it will show on Saturday. Todd Graham has constantly made adjustments to fit his players strength and I think he deserves coach of the year honors especially if they get to play Oregon for the PAC 12 Championship which is what is on the line in this game.

[b]Patriots 4.4* NFL POD[/b]
Originally I leaned the Panthers, but after researching the game more I just could not bring myself to back the Panthers off an emotional win like they had last week beating the 49ers in their own building in what basically declared them "Super Bowl Contenders." For one I don't think the 49ers are that good and even though we scraped by yesterday with the 49ers +3.5 as our POD the game revealed a lot to me. #1 the 49ers can't protect their QB and Kaepernick can not make quick decisions. The Panthers have played absolutely nobody other than the Seahawks and then the 49ers and the Cardinals who are 6-4 and tied with the 49ers. Their offense put up a total of 23 points in those three games. The Patriots defense is not nearly the juggernaut of those 3 defenses, but the Patriots offense is clicking at the right time.

The Patriots put up 610 yards on a Steelers defense that does not allow a ton of yards. Patriots are always great in the 2nd half of the season and have always been great after a bye. Bellechick will have his team motivated and Brady is probably the most competitive QB in the league. Now that he has a healthy offense he should be able to avoid some of the sacks. The Panthers have not faced an offense that's even close to what the Patriots do and the Patriots have not even been at their best this year. Yes, the Panthers can get to the QB, but I think coming off a bye that the Patriots pass defense will be well prepared for what the Panthers do to get to the QB. When you look at the offenses and the pass blocking of those offenses that the Panthers have faced its no shock why they are getting a ton of hype. The value is on the Patriots here and I'll take them to win outright too!

[b]49ers +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
I believe the 49ers win this game outright. They are coming off a loss and are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and they face a Saints team that just destroyed the Cowboys in the national spot light so clearly they are going to get an inflated line. Vegas knows they can reel in some extra bettors on this game on the Saints side and capitalize when the 49ers win the game.

First of all for the 49ers it's as simple as winning the rushing battle. They are 6-0 when they run for more yards than their opponent and 0-3 when they don't. I think this is a terrible match up for the Saints and the 49ers should be able to run on the Saints who are 32nd in run defense in yards per carry allowed while they are 22nd in rushing offense. SF is also 3rd in opposing QB rating and the Saints rely heavily on their passing game. The Saints have not faced too many stubborn teams like the 49ers who will grind out a game by running. I don't think they will be able to continue their success and the 49ers are a desperate team that can't fall any further behind the Seahawks and must stay ahead in the wild card chase. The 49ers will have success running the ball and that will mean Colin Kaepernick is having success too!

[b]Georgia +4 5.5* NCAAF POD; Georgia +150 2* bonus[/b]
First of all Georgia is still alive in the SEC race for the SEC Championship game which is huge for their motivation in this game. Secondly, Auburn just is not that good and we will break down why. Georgia is the most complete team that Auburn has faced all year and really a bad match up for them, the worst since their 2 TD loss to LSU. Georgia also got an extra week to get healthy and prepare after facing Appalachan State last week. Georgia is getting healthier on both sides of the ball and it's going to pay off down the stretch. Auburn has had the liberty of facing some very bad run defenses. IN fact they have not faced a single top 60 run defense all year long. The best was LSU and we know how that game went. On average they have faced an average run defense ranked 92nd run defense and Georgia is ranked 28th in ypc allowed. This defense as a whole has only gotten better and I think Auburn is a bit one dimensional here so I expect them to struggle. At time QB Nick Marshall has proven he can throw the ball, but is he 100%? I don't think so and when you can get an extra week to scheme for a one dimensional game with the strength of your defense you should be able to come up with some stops and I think that's what Georgia will do.

Defensively, Auburn is not very good they have allowed 4 teams to rush for 5+ypc and 200+ yards. We have seen holes in their defense the last 2 games alone against Arkansas and Tennesse, both one dimensional offenses with passing attacks ranked 114th, and 117th in QB rating. This Auburn secondary gives up big plays against bad teams never mind Aaron Murray. They are last in the SEC in big passing plays allowed with 27 plays allowed of 25+ yards. This is just the second offense that Auburn has faced that ranks top 35 in both rushing and passing offense. Texas A&M being the other and they had 600 total yards and put up 600 yards and Johny Manziel missed 2 series. A&M has one of the worst defenses too and probably would have won that game if Manziel didn't have to miss a couple of series. With that said Georgia's defense is much better as A&M is ranked 107th vs. the run so even though Georgia can put up 41 points I don't think they have to. In the end Georgia just has the right ingredients to pull the upset and I think there is tremendous value based on the Auburn hype which is well deserved but has come against weak competition. Georgia's aggressive defensive play will be the difference as they cruise to a win.

[b]Washington +3 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This line looks a bit sketchy and the public is pounding UCLA, but the line is not moving and it's clear to me Vegas is gambling on this game too. Vegas loves the Huskies here tonight otherwise they'd move the line to -3.5 or -4 but it's going to -2.5 in some spots and I'd rather be on the experts side. I will give you information on why it's smart to be betting on Washington here tonight despite what UCLA has done this year.

UCLA offensively behind Brett Hundley have gotten a ton of hype this year, but when they have faced really good defenses they have struggled. Washington has a very physical defensive line and is ranked 19th in opposing QB rating for a reason. Their defense fits in that mold of Oregon and Stanford, who stopped UCLA cold. Washington also gets to the QB at 9.28% of drop backs on the road while UCLA's offensive line has been a weakness this year ranked 92nd in sacked % and has been worse of late. UCLA does not have as much balance as Washington does and I'm not even so sure they have the better QB in this game as Keith Price has been amazing all year. UCLA went to a LB to give them some carries last week and while that made a great story for the media it's not going to be a regular thing. Hundley will have to be the one that carries this team to victory and while he's done it before I don't think he can tonight.. I have seen this offense go cold too many times and they were even struggling for a large part of the Utah game. I think UCLA was even lucky to get out with a win last week against Arizona even though we had UCLA as our Pac 12 game of the week.

Meanwhile Washington is not getting the credit because they are behind Oregon and Stanford in the PAC 12 and have no shot at going to the PAC 12 Championship game. However, their 3 losses which came all in a row were more because of a scheduling spot. You won't see many teams that have to play three weeks in a row against 3 better teams all of which have contrasting styles. Washington moved the ball up and down the field on Stanford and should have won that game as they outgained them by 210 yards on the road while UCLA was outgained at Stanford by 153 yards and could not manage any offense. Washington also held on tight and were within 7 points against Oregon while UCLA was tied at half time fell apart in the 2nd half. I won't be surprised if UCLA gets off to a great start because they have done it for most of the year, but by the end of the game the better team will prevail and that is the Huskies behind next level players like Bishop Sankey at RB and Keith Price at QB connecting with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Despite losing Kasen Williams they are still only 3 point under dogs? That tells you the story right there just how confident Vegas is in this line. Jaydon Mickens and Kevin Smith also have talent at receiver and UCLA won't be any good on defense vs. a balanced offense like Washington.

Colts/Titans Over 42 4.4* NFL POD; Titans +128 1.5* bonus
I think we are getting some great value here on the total as both teams have played a lot of under teams this year giving us value on the over here. Colts just came off an embarrassing loss where they put up 8 points and you bet their offense is going to in my opinion abandon the running game to try to get off to a strong start. Andrew Lucky is a very talented QB, and I think he bounces back well following losses with the following point totals 23, 30, 17, 20, 20, 27, 39 and is perfect 7-0 SU and ATS following a loss. I think he will get to 20+ points and despite the Titans strong defense they are 30th in red zone defense allowing 65% TD's in the red zone.

For the Titans, I think this is a must win for them and the Colts defense is not exactly playing well. They are 28th in yards per attempt allowed and we all know Ryan Fitzpatrick is not afraid to take chances down the field. He's a high risk high reward type of player and he's either going to be connecting on deep throws or throwing pick sixes. I think he'll have a good game against a suspect Colts defense. I mean Kellen Clemens was 9-16 for 247 yards and 2 TD's. Colts can not play man defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty smart guy and should be able to beat whatever the Colts throw at him. I really do like the Titans to come up with the upset, but won't be surprised if Luck wins again after a loss. However, I'm not sold on the Colts right now their offense has not proven they can move on without Reggie Wayne, and although the Titans just lost to the Jaguars, the leagues worst team. That was something many saw coming as the Jaguars have played well in some games and were off a bye while the Titans were most certainly peaking ahead to this game. Take the over big and back it up a bit with the Titans on the money line.

RHODE ISLAND +6 3.3* NCAAB POD

Magic +2 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Falcons +4.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
Matt Ryan has been great at home and truly an elite QB, and now he's a home dog where he has dominated throughout his career. This Atlanta team has not given up on their season and a win here would really spark them in my opinion as they are fully capable of going on a nice run. They are starting to get healthy on both sides of the ball and the return of Rhoddy White will make the biggest impact of any. Seattle won't be able to stack up against the run with White and Tony Gonzalez, and they'll need to because they just allowed Zac Stacy and Mike James to both tear them apart in the running game for a combined 54 carries and 292 yards. I think Stephen Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers will have a huge game and Atlanta will find some balance.

For the Seahawks they are now the team banged up as Sidney Rice is now out making that offense a bit less explosive. They are also many injuries up front with three offensive line men out now with Unger being added to the shelf along with Giacomini and Okung. Atlanta has some pass rushers and Seattle will be smart enough to keep it on the ground for most of this game and settle for field goals in the red zone. I just think Atlanta should have the lead late in this game with Seattle driving to win.

[b]Sacramento -1.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
These two teams just faced off last night, but nowt he series moves back to Sacramento and despite a 13 point win, the Kings are favorites. The Kings early in this season go as their rookie Ben McLemore go and he picked up 4 fouls in just 7 minutes of playing time. I expect him to bounce back with the rest of this team. Demarcus Cousins seems focused and had 35 points on Friday night, now going back home they should be able to pull off a victory against a Blazers team that is a bit over rated here in the early going.

[b]Penn State +120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Minnesota is now getting a lot of hype for a one dimensional team that's ranked 6th in rushing play % with 70% of their plays coming as a run. Minnesota has 3 straight wins as they were over a TD under dog. It's no shock they did it against three teams that struggle against stopping the run. Indiana ranked 91st, Nebraska 71st, and Northwestern 61st. Penn State is 49th, but if you take away the Ohio State game they are ranked in the top 15 allowing only 3.14 ypc. Only two teams have rushed for more than 4 yards per carry against Penn State. Both those teams were balanced with a top 10 QB rating. Ohio State ranked 7th and Central Florida ranked 9th. Minnesota just does not have that type of balance at the QB position. That should set things up for Penn State to win this game and stop the run by holding Minnesota under 4 ypc.

Minnesota is 1-2 when they are held under 4 ypc and should be 0-3 with a lucky OT win over Northwestern. Minnesota will have a hard time on third down with their offense as Penn State is 35% in holding teams on third down, but a deeper look and they have held every one dimensional offense that they have faced (5 total) under 30% on third down. All three teams that beat Penn State had a solid running game, but they also had the threat of a passing game and Minnesota does not.

Penn State on the other hand is perfectly balanced with a 51.30% running play percentage. What is hidden in Minnesota's winning streak is their inability to stop the run. They allowed over 6 ypc in back to back games and have allowed over 5 yards per carry in conference play. Penn State's Bill Belton is averaging 5.22 ypc and is coming on strong with 201 yards last week. The thing with Penn State is that they can also pass leading the Big Ten with 253 yards passing per game behind freshmen Christian Hackenberg who is not playing like a freshmen and was the most coveted QB recruit a year ago. He has an NFL WR in Allen Robinson that will be the best receiver Minnesota has faced all year and when teams wanted to throw on Minnesota they've been able to with San Jose and Michigan putting up monster games.

This is just a bad match up for Minnesota a team that has been over achieving. Penn State is as healthy as they have been all year and have solid line backers and corners that can cover led by Jordan Lucas. Overall Penn State is just more balanced on both sides and the overall better team. We get value here because of what Minnesota just did to vegas lines.

[b]MIN/WSH U49 4.4* NFL POD; MIN +8 / U55 2.2* Teaser[/b]
We have two teams that come into this game who have had very challenging schedules especially on the defensive end with the Redskins facing 7 top 15 scoring offenses out of 8 opponents with 5 of the 6 opponents being in the top 6 in scoring offense. With that said their defense can not possibly be as bad as they have shown so far. Same goes for the Vikings defense which has faced 5 teams ranked in the top 11 scoring offenses. Both teams prefer to run the ball, but have been forced to pass by falling behind early and that's going to change tonight as I see this game as a very close battle.

Washington has run the ball 40+ times in two of their last 3 games while the Vikings got to 29 carries in their last game. Running the ball keeps that clock moving as you know and I think it's something that both teams are better at and will try to do tonight. The fact that the Vikings are 8th in the league in run defense as far as yards per carry are concerned leads me to believe they can stay in this game. It's also a tough thing to ask Washington to go on the road on short rest following a gutsy OT win over San Diego that included a goal line stand. I would lean towards Minnesota winning this game as they've been playing better lately, but Washington is better than their record indicates so I think Vegas is right on the money with this spread which makes the teaser worth while with the home dog since I feel we are getting great value on the total.

[b]Oklahoma +15 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
All the hype has been on Baylor all year long with their regular ability to put up 70 points on below average defenses. Oklahoma's defense is not great, but it has the right ingredients to stay in this game on both sides of the ball. If you ask your average joe they would probably tell you Baylor throws the ball like crazy, but they are only throwing the ball 40% of the time which is about the same as Oklahoma. Part of that is because they get up early in games, but part of that is because they have a really talented running back in Lache Seastrunk. This rushing offense has not faced anyone that can stop the run with the exception of Kansas State who did hold them under 5 yards per carry. Oklahoma held them under 5 yards per carry last year and are ranked 64th against the run. They will still have issues stopping the run, but this Oklahoma defense is very good in other areas that should help them stay within the 15 points. Aside from Kansas State, Baylor has not faced a team in the top 70 in run defense this year.

Baylor's offensive line which has been terrific has not been tested all year. Here are the pass rushes they have faced with ranks. 88th, 95th, 119, 102nd, 105th. Oklahoma is only ranked 68th, but parlay that with the fact that they are 5th in yards per attempt and Baylor is going to have a hard time getting their big yards over the top. Petty at QB is still low on experience and has not faced a pass defense as good as Oklahoma's. Petty gets lazy with footwork which leads to accuracy issues and I think he is going to have to do something he has not had to do all year which is move the ball down the field without the big plays. Even against Kansas State he had 3 plays that just completely changed the game and Kansas State still had them on the ropes.

Oklahoma will stay in this game by taking one out of Kansas State's game plan. Run the ball and dominate on time of possession. The Oklahoma running game that features a trio of senior running backs and a running QB should be able to move the ball. After all Baylor's run defense that has been so good has only faced one rushing offense ranked in the top 60 in the nation and that was Kansas State which is ranked 40th in yards per carry. They ran for 327 yards, and Oklahoma is better ranking 18th at 5.2 ypc. Oklahoma is also more capable of moving the ball through the air than Kansas State was and even though Blake Bell won't make the big plays he will be smart as he's got a 143 QB rating with 10 TD and 3 interceptions. Oklahoma will move the ball on Baylor's experienced front 7 especially in the second half where their size advantage will take over.

In the end I think Oklahoma comes up short, but this will be a very competitive game that both teams will be up for with extra rest. The road team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the dog is 7-3 ATS while Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a bye with their last game being a 14 point win on the road earlier this season against Notre Dame. Oklahoma could and should be sitting undefeated, but they could not get up for a game against Texas, a game they were supposed to easily win. This is a game Baylor is easily supposed to win and that should only motivate Oklahoma.

Ohio +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Buffalo has won 6 games in a row and those 6 teams have a combined win total of 5 not counting the FCS team they beat. Those 5 wins were either against each other or other FCS teams so it's safe to say that Buffalo has literally beaten nobody. Ohio's resume is nothing to get excited about either, but at least they beat North Texas and Marshall.

Ohio has a balanced offense with an experienced QB in Tyler Tettleton who has a 165 QB rating and he will be the difference because this is the first time in conference play that Buffalo's defense will face a balanced attack. Ohio had a melt down against Central Michigan and still almost hung on. Buffalo relies on their pass rush to force turnovers but Ohio's ranked 8th in fewest sack % at 2.56%. That means that Tettleton should have the time he needs to make decisions to win this game and movet he chains as Ohio is converting 51% of their third downs in conference play. Buffalo is only converting 36%. Ohio's red zone is also good enough to create a major advantage as they've held 4 conference opponents to 46% on just 13 attempts.

Joe Licata is only a sophomore starting at QB and he's been good, but a 139 QB rating and facign an Ohio pass rush that's ranked 4th in sack % and ranked 7th with a 10.53 sack % on the road. I think the weak schedule finally catches up to this Buffalo team as Ohio pulls the game out.

[b]Texans +110 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
Both teams come off a bye for this game, but the Colts lost Reggie Wayne who was a significant part of this offense. Now they have to go on the road and face the NFL's best pass defense. The Texans are still leading the league in defense which is puzzling why they are sitting where they are sitting, but turnover margin has been the real issue. The Colts lead the league in fewest turnovers, but are 14th in forcing them. The Texans switched to Case Keenum and in his first start he had to go on the road in a hostile environment, but he protected the ball and made some plays down the field. 15/25 271 yards 1 TD and most importantly 0 interceptions and that was on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Now he gets the Colts at home while they are still solid they can't stop the run.

Colts are ranked 26th in run defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Foster had 27 for 165 yards last year at home and the Texans can still run the rock while the Colts must respect the outstanding receivers on the outside in Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins who both had big plays at KC with catches of 42 and 35 yards while Devier Posey had a catch for 45. You can't simply stack the box against the Texans. I look for the Texans to win this game with their old style plays. Defense, running the ball and passing off play action without forcing things or turning the ball over. We get value here because the Texans have turned the ball over while the Colts have beaten the leagues 3 best teams, but Colts are more one dimensional with Trent Richardson only averaging 3 yards per carry.

Arkansas +8 5.5* NCAAF POD / Arkansas +265 1* bonus
Literally nobody believes in Arkansas right now after they were out scored 134-17 in their last three games. All three came against the 3 best defenses in SEC, but now Arkansas comes off the bye playing a team that has just too much confidence after beating Texas A&M on the road and improving to 7-1 on the season in Auburn. Public is betting Auburn 70% of the time in this spot yet the line has been going the other way. I think there is value on Arkansas especially coming off the bye having an extra week to prepare for an Auburn team that is flawed. Auburn is one dimensional on offense and defense struggling bad to stop the pass and pass the ball. Even though Arkansas has been better running the ball I think they will find success passing on Saturday.

Arkansas passing offense is not as bad as it's looked. Brandon Allen's stats look awful but he was battling a shoulder injury for most of the year but has looked better as of late. He was part of 282 yards and 3 TD's vs. A&M at home and I believe Arkansas shoudl be able to continue running the ball effectively. Auburn has had issues stopping the run at times this year and has not really faced a team that's willing to grind out a game. Arkansas had 3.83 ypc at Florida and 4.23 ypc at Alabama and should average over 5 yards per carry on Saturday. On the flip side Arkansas should load the box to stop Auburn who is more predictable running the ball 66% of the time. At least when Arkansas passes they can protect their QB allowing just 6 sacks on the year as the offensive line has played extremely well. Auburn is 66th in pass rush while Arkansas is 18th.

In the end it will be Arkansas getting an early lead at home and using their pass rush with DE Chris Smith and Trey Flowers along with some blitzing from their linebackers. This is Bielema's kind of game and it falls on senior day off a bye with a team at 3-5 that is capable of going to a bowl and

Wash State +11.5 4.4** NCAAF POD Washington State will host high flying Arizona State after a bye week. Wash State has been killed 3 out of their last 4 games giving up 52+ in each and Arizona State comes in and naturally come in as a big favorite, but I'm taking the Cougars who are much better then they are getting credit for. Connor Holliday already has over 3,000 passing yards and 18 TD's, Interceptions have been a problem, but Arizona State's defense should be in for quite a struggle. They have not played an offense that passes this much all season and the closest to that was Notre Dame who beat the Sun Devils. The pass defense has been decent, but not nearly as good on the road and this is only Arizona State's 2nd true road game with the Notre Dame game being on neutral field. Taylor Kelly has a QB rating that's 20 points lower in his two games away from home and last year he had a rating that was 43 points lower on the road. The ASU pass defense also 30 points higher on the road this year. Arizona State won 46-7 last year at home, but they have not won a game in the pacific north west since 2008. It's 40 degrees with a 20% chance of rain tonight and it will be hard for them to win by two TD's with Washington State's offense really starting to click. The main difference for Wash State has been their offensive line that's bigger and stronger and more experienced. Add in 2 weeks to prepare for a defense that has played well at times this year and I think 11.5 points offers tremendous value.

[b]Dolphins +3 +105 4.5* NFL POD[/b]
Classic buy low sell high situation for the Dolphins who had the Patriots game in the bag with a 17-3 first half lead before crumbling. I don't see the Bengals as that much of a better team but they did just dominate the Jets so they are getting too much credit in this spot as a road favorite on a short week. This is their 3rd road game in 4 weeks with another one on deck vs. Baltimore which is a much more important game.

The Bengals are a different team on the road as they are 3rd in the league at home in opposing QB rating 60.4, but on the road ranked 19th with a 98.5 QB rating. The Dolphins meanwhile have allowed 2 passing TD's at home and only 5 in 6 games when you take out Drew Brees 4TD performance. This Dolphins defense is good and will keep them in most games. They are ranked 8th in red zone defense at home and 4th in red zone offense at home while the Bengals are 20th in red zone defense overall. The Bengals also are allowing 52.94 % third down conversions on the road as they have been struggling to get to the QB ranked 21st overall, but even worse on the road with a bad 4.94 % sack percentage. Give Tannehill time and he will produce and I see that happening here today as the Dolphins come up with a much needed win to get them back into the Wild Card discussion.

Cardinals +112 4* MLB POD It's Wacha Wacha time in game 6. This kid has been amazing this post season and I think he'll shine again at Fenway where he just made one mistake in his first start, but still got the win. Wacha was better against the Dodgers the second time around so saying that the Red Sox will figure this kid out probably is not accurate. He's pitched like a veteran with 27 innings and 11 hits this post season. He's got a better raw stat line than John Lackey who starts for Boston. Lackey has been solid this post season, but his tERA of 4.17 on the season does not impress me and he only had 7 quality starts out of 13 total starts on extra rest. He gave up 3 ER to the Cardinals in his first start and he had to pitch an inning of relief on Sunday which would have been his throwing day in between starts. However, the stress and the way you throw out of the bullpen in the World Series is different and I think that will have some sort of impact, because pitchers are creatures of habit and what Lackey had to do on Sunday was out of the ordinary. Plus I think this Cardinal team is a resiliant bunch and they won't be spooked by Boston in game 6. They are 48-21 in their last 69 following a loss and 11-4 following an off day. They also are 75-36 in their last 111 vs. RH starter.

Memphis +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD
Nearly 70% of the public are on the Cinci Bearcats yet the spread is dropping. I've bet on this Memphis team before and they are much better than their 1-5 record indicates and should win this game. Both teams have top defenses which we will get into more in a second, but Cinci who is ranked 7th in total defense has faced the following offensive teams ranked 121st, 117th, 123rd, 76th, 83rd and 124th. They may have had the easiest schedule to date when you look at the offenses they have faced. Memphis on the other hand ranked 13th has faced 64th, 24th, 45th, 71st, 97th, and 16th ranked offenses.

Memphis defense is legit they are 12th in yards per play, 8th in run defense allowing just 3.1 ypc which will be key against a Cinci rushing offense that is hit or miss, and 23rd in opposing QB rating. They held Houston to 247 yards which was 228 yards less than their season average. That's the same Houston that just went on the road and beat up on Rutgers who was coming off a bye and the same Houston that took BYU to the wire and put up 40+ points on a top 25 defense. They also held UCF to 274 yards which was 161 yards under their total. UCF also already beat the AAC's best team and did so on the road beating Louisville on a Friday night. Memphis should have beaten both Houston and UCF, but costly turnovers and inability to put it in the end zone were the reasons why they did not. Memphis luckily plays a team that turns the ball over just as much as them. Cinci is 110th with 2.5 turnovers per game on the year. Those are elite teams and Cincinnati just is not and they've been bad on the road. They barely got by Miami Ohio 14-0 which is the worst team in FBS. They lost to a bad South Florida team as a 10.5 point favorite and they lost at Illinois 17-45 as a -7.5 favorite. It's not like Illinois is turning the corner either as they lost 44-3 this past weekend to Michigan State.

The good news is we have value on our side because people have some what forgot about how bad Cinci has looked this year because they are off back to back wins against Uconn and Temple two more bad teams. It helps that Memphis record is 1-5 and Vegas knows they can collect big time by putting a low point spread as every average joe will come playing on Cinci. The spread only dropped because sharp money is on Memphis and Vegas wants more money on Cinci because they gamble too and feel they have an advantage with Memphis and perception that Cinci is the better team.

Cavs +4 4.4* NBA POD The Cavs are going to be the surprise team early on. Kyrie Irving is a super star already and they add some solid players in free agency along with #1 overall pick Anthony Bennet out of UNLV. This team is stacked with depth and are under rated. The Nets went out and got Pierce and Garnett so the hype is there for the Nets. However, we have seen with teams that bring in big names to an already talented roster struggle early in the season. These players will defer to each other since they are all talented and it will be challenging to see the chemistry come together early. However, vegas does not take those things into consideration. They know the public will jump all over the Nets especially early on. I think Vegas is gambling here too allowing people to play the Nets knowing if the Nets win and cover they'll lose money. Nets also have a bigger game on Friday at home against the Heat so a look ahead is only natural. Cavs will take this game outright.

Cardinals/Sox Under 7 -145 4.5* MLB POD
This series has become extremely difficult to predict. I don't see any value on playing with the pitching match ups right now and I'll look at totals when they make sense and tonight it makes sense.

Jon Lester has pitched lights out all post season and in game 1 of this series. I expect him to dominate again tonight against a Cardinals line up that struggles vs. lefties and has not been hitting much. On the flip side Adam Wainwright will rebound in a big way here. His control seemed off a bit in game 1 which is unlike him considering he averaged less than 2 BB's per 9. It's hard to hit the ball out of the ballpark as we saw last night. It looked like Johny Gomes got all of that HR and it barely made it out of the park. Expect a highly intense match up with each manager using full use of his bullpen when it gets to that point. This game could go deep into the night with a 1-0 or 2-1 final.

Browns +7.5 5.5* NFL POD / Browns +300 1* bonus Last week we faded the Chiefs on our POD and we did the same thing the week before. We are doing it again here with the Browns who come in off two losses by 14 and 18 while the Chiefs remain the media's favorites as the only undefeated team. I've said it before and I'll say it again the Chiefs offense is not good. The Chiefs offense has benefited largely from good field positions actually they are #1 in field position. However, they are 27th in yards per drive. I'm not doubting this defense, but I'm doubting this offense as they are not good enough to be laying 7.5 points in this game, because the Browns defense is very talented. Cleveland defense is actually top 5 in rushing and passing yards allowed which is shocking when you think about the position their offense has put them in. Despite their offense not being very good they still have weapons in the passing game in Cameron and Gordon and this game should be a defensive battle that the Browns could absolutely win and shock everyone.

Red Sox +102 4* MLB POD
When looking at this match up you will break down stats and pitching match ups until you are blue in the face. Both of these teams are very comparable and it's a good reason why they are playing in the world series to begin with. Both teams were tops in their league vs. RHP which they'll face today. Both bullpens have the same ERA when you look at their home away splits, both pitchers have similar RAW stats as far as true ERA or xFIP. So on the surface it's very hard to make a decision on this game which is why you are seeing it as basically an even money line spread. Despite that, the public is absolutely pounding the Cardinals to death for 68% of the bets and rightfully so Joe Kelly has an ERA under 3 and Jake Peavy just gave up 7 ER in his last start and an ERA over 5 on the road.

I'm taking the Red Sox because of value here. I think the value is on the Red Sox and it's evident that Vegas is totally fine taking more money on the Cardinals without moving the line and that's because Joe Kelly is over rated. Kelly has come down to life with a 4.41 ERA in three post season starts with a 1.47 WHIP indicating it could have been much worse. When you look over his starts you can see why he's had success. He's faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 10 in offense vs. RHP and he has not faced a top 5 team, but he will tonight. Kelly has been extremely lucky with an 83% strand rate and his 5.73 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 do not shout sub 3 ERA material. Peavy has better numbers 7.53 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. Peavy is way over due for a good start in the playoffs and he may not have it here, but I'm still going to back the Red Sox and this offense. Peavy does have 3 starts at this addition of Busch Stadium and a 2.25 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP. He's also had 10 of 14 quality starts this year on 5+ days rest so he should have plenty of confidence going into this start.

Boston is also 38-17 in their last 55 inter league road starts vs. RH starter. 82-32 in their last 114 vs. RH starter in inter league play. It also helps that Dana Demuth who has a smaller strike zone on average is behind the plate because that fits the personality of the Red Sox and it won't help Joe Kelly who has control issues to begin with. There is no surprise that the Red Sox are 17-4 in Demuth's last 21 behind home plate. Lastly, both bullpens have been superb, but the Red Sox bullpen has been better and the Cardinals may have to go deep into their bullpen as I don't think Kelly is going to go deep into this game.

Texas +2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Mack Brown said, "it's good we have an extra week off because the team definitely enjoyed the win over Oklahoma past the 48 hour rule." Which is to be expected as the red river rivalry is the biggest rivalry game in college football. TCU unfortunately had to play Oklahoma State last week. The Cowboys were also on an extra week of prep and were just fresher off a bye week in the win over TCU. TCU will have their hands full yet again with a Texas team that's gaining confidence and have their eyes on a Big 12 title which they are certainly in the mix for.

TCU gets Casey Pachall back after he broke his arm to start the season, but it's unknown how much he'll play but even if he does I don't see him being effective. This is the worst offense that Texas has faced all year as TCU is ranked 110th in total yards, they have a zero dimensional offense averaging less than 4 yards per carry, with a 112 QB rating, 29% third down conversions and 56% TD % in the red zone. Texas' defense has struggled at times, but they have definitely righted the ship. They have a ton of talent and with an extra week to prepare against an offense going nowhere, I believe they should dominate.

Offensively TCU has been great, but have shown some weaknesses in pass defense deep. Texas will throw some deep passes to loosen up TCU a bit here and Texas is far more capable of running the ball with the deepest stable of running backs in the country. TCU faced two teams that could run and did so against them. Oklahoma and LSU and Texas ranks in between the two in yards per carry. Texas also has revenge on their minds after losing 20-13 on Thanksgiving last year and would love to get the win to move to 4-0 in the Big 12. Power and toughness is what Texas defense struggles against and that's not TCU which relies on defense and forcing turnovers to win games. Texas is +6 in turnover margin and McCoy is taking care of the ball as Texas has just 7 turnovers on the year.

South Carolina +3 4.4* SEC GOW
Missouri mine as well be under dogs in this game against South Carolina. The line moved to 2.5 at some books with all the public on Missouri after South Carolina choked at Tennessee. Missouri is getting the credit, but really they beat teams at the right time. They faced Florida without their QB and they did it at home, and they beat a beat up Georgia team on the road. South Carolina seriously just has the right balance that Missouri has not faced this year. Missouri has not faced one balanced offense other than Georgia (which didn't have their two starting RB's). South Carolina is 15th in QB rating, and 17th in yards per rush attempt. Dylan Thompson is more then capable of taking the reigns from Connor Shaw. Thompson led the Gamecocks to a big win over Clemson last year and had 10 TD's to 2 interceptions on the season a year ago so he's been in this spot before. He's always been better when he knows he has to start and has a week of practice under his belt which he has this week. Just like Missouri has not faced a balanced offense they have not faced a defense that is top 50 that also is good in offense. Even facing Florida ranked 4th in total defense they put up big numbers. Mainly because Florida could not sustain drives and Florida has a weakness on defense, their pass rush is ranked 80th while South Carolina is ranked 27th. South Carolina is also 18th in total defense to go along with their top 25 offense. This is hands down the best team Missouri has faced and I'm betting on Dylan Thompson and against Matty Mauk this week after being on Missouri in consecutive weeks.

Kansas St -5.5/Texas +8.5 2.75* teaser My Texas reasons are well documented in my NCAAF POD. Kansas State also has an extra week to prepare for this game and should dominate West Virginia up front. Daniel Sams is a different runner than Colin Klein was, but he's capable of carrying this team as he almost did in a shocking win over Baylor as they led in the 3rd quarter. Kansas State will get back their two top WR's in this game in Locket and Thompson which should open up the offense even more. West Virginia is not a team that travels well and gave up 70 to Baylor so I expect Kansas State to control the clock and play defense like they always do.

Boise State +7 -102 4.5* NCAAF POD
These two teams meeting tonight are really similar in a lot of ways. The only thing separating the two is who is home, and the fact that Boise has to break in a new QB after Southwick broke his ankle last week vs. Nevada. Last year it was Boise winning 7-6, and I see more of the same this year.

First of all let me introduce you to Grant Hedrick, the Oregon transfer has more mobile than Southwick (15 carries 192 yards), and will add to Boise's running game. He does not have the arm that Southwick has but he's extremely accurate and he'll give Boise balance that will be tough to defend on Friday night as he has completed 81% of his 37 passing attempts. Boise also is better at protecting their QB ranked 41st in pass protection while BYU is 93rd in sack %. Even with Van Noy roaming BYU has not been able to get a consistent pass rush and they have given up big rushing games in 2 of their last 3 games.

Boise's defense meanwhile is ranked 20th in sack% while BYU struggles at times to protect Taysom Hill who has been sacked 8.49% of his drop backs ranking 107th. Hill and BYU's offense is entirely one dimensional and he often makes mistakes that costs his team and I predict it will happen tonight. He's only completing 50% of his passes and has 8 interceptions on the year. Boise State just got done containing Nevada's Cody Fajaro who is of similar talent. Fajara is not quite the runner, but Boise shut him down 17 carries for 12 yards and Fajara actually is a threat to pass completing 70% of his passes. Boise should be able to dominate on defense and I believe the surprise element of Hendrick gives us value that we wouldn't have had with Southwick behind center.

[b]Under 7 +105 4* MLB POD[/b]
Lackey is over rated but he's got great control walking less than 2 guys per 9 and the Cardinals could be without Beltran here. Cardinals are a tough bunch I expect them to bounce back in this series but I don't think this is an easy game for them. Red Sox bats will quiet they only had 8 hits yesterday to pair with the 8 runs and left 13 guys on base. That is rare and now the Cardinals send out Michael Wacha who has been unhittable this post season. Wacha will have the benefit of Wegner behind the plate.

Wegner is above the league average in strike %, near the top in strike out %, and near the bottom in BB% among MLB umpires this year. Both clubs are hitting worse in the last 10 games than they were all year with less than 4 runs per 9 vs. RHP and both teams have to face a pitcher they haven't faced before. Both bullpens are pitching extremely well, Cardinals 2.32 ERA in their last 10, Boston 1.12 in their last 10. The cold October weather has finally hit the Northeast and runs will be at a premium with pitching dominating. Wegner is more of a pitcher's umpire than a hitters and the under has gone 13-6 when the total is 7 runs or less with him behind the plate since 2006 and 25-12 in his last 37 inter league games. Lackey is the one question mark here, but he's pitched lights out at Fenway with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP this year. It's going to be a nail biter that goes deep into the night.

Kentucky +11 4.4* NCAAF POD; Kentucky +375 1* Nobody wants to go an entire season without a win in their conference especially in the SEC. This may be the most winnable game for Kentucky who is on 12 days rest to prepare to win the one game they have the best shot at. They are 11 point under dogs mainly due to the fact that they have gone 1-5 while Miss State is 3-3. Kentucky's stats are not good, but having to play 4 straight top 20 opponents will make anyone's stats weaker than they actually are. Kentucky had to play Louisville, Florida, South Carolina and most recently Alabama losing 49-7 which set us up well on this spread. Kentucky actually hung in there against Louisville, Florida and South Carolina and I think they will have an opportunity to win against Miss State team that has not been great this year. If Jalen Whitlow was 100% at QB I would probably make this a maximum play. When you look at both teams they are actually rather pretty similar. Both rely to run the ball first and have a two QB system while both defense has struggled to stop the run. I'm not so sure that Kentucky isn't better at both. Their strength of schedule has been brutal compared with Miss State that barely hung on vs. a MAC team in Bowling Green at home. Kentucky has clearly made progress under Stoops although the results do not show it so the public is backing Miss State big and giving us value on the line. I'm not throwing many stats out here because the SOS is just not comparable with Miss State playing LSU and a subpar Okl State team and a decent but over rated Auburn team. It's still worth mentioning that Miss State's defense is allowing 70% touchdowns in the red zone and Kentucky has more of a balanced offense then Miss State does and Kentucky has turned the ball over only 6 times this year. Either way this game should be close and there is a ton of value on Kentucky pulling the upset.

Cardinals +112 5* MLB POD We all saw how the Red Sox offense struggled after some time off when they were waiting for the Tigers as Anibal Sanchez was masterful, but struggled with control leaving in the 6th inning with a no hitter but 6 walks. Tigers still won that game and now Adam Wainwright comes in with a better curve and far better control. Red Sox have no faced Wainwright and he's certainly the better pitcher on the mound. The hitters that have faced Wainwright have not hit him in 65 AB they have a .169 average and a .598 OPS. Wainwright is on extra rest compared with Lester and posts a 1.61 ERA this season when he's on 5 or more days of rest with all 12 going at least 7 innings with an average of 8 innings pitched. Jon Lester has had a good post season and he's certainly capable of throwing another great game here tonight. However, he's on shorter rest although still 5+ days. He also had 12 starts this year on 5 or more days rest and the results are not nearly as good. half of those starts did not go 7 innings and he posted a 3.24 ERA with an average 6.1 innings pitched. I favor the Cardinals arms and bullpen over the Red Sox who seem to be relying on Koji Uehara too much because the rest of the bullpen is a bit sketchy. This is the World Series and in this type of game it comes down to who can make the place in the clutch. I think the Cardinals getting Allen Craig back as a DH is going to help tremendously. We so Johny Peralta do it all post season after sitting out and I think Craig can do it too. Craig was one of the best hitters with 2 outs and with RISP. Speaking of which Cardinals own a significant advantage in OPS, average and on base percentage in the playoffs and regular season with runners on and runners in scoring position with 2 outs. To put it in perspective the Cardinals had a .821 OPS and a .305 average with RISP and 2 outs during the season compared with the Red Sox .747, and .249. I see a lot more weak links and strike out batter in the Sox line up and I think the Cardinals have a bigger edge.

Texans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD; Texans +205 1.5* bonus Buying low on the Texans in this spot after they got embarrassed at home last week and lost Matt Schaub. They go on the road to play a Chiefs team that to me is significantly over rated. The Chiefs won 24-7 over the Raiders, but that score was a bit misleading and actually when you look back at a lot of the Chiefs game this year the results have been misleading, but it gives us great value on the Chiefs opponent again this week. The Chiefs weakness is the Texans strength. Texans can still run the ball and with a rookie QB in there this week that's what they will get back to in what will be a gritty win. Case Keenum can sling it, but he's going to be asked to win with a simple game plan with running and play action and that will get good results vs. the Chiefs as they are ranked 30th in rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile the Chiefs offense has been putrid despite the high point totals. Chiefs have benefited from the best field position of any team in the NFL, but facing the Texans who are still a top 5 defense is not going to be easy. Houston is #1 in yards allowed and facing an offense that's one of the worst in the league.

[b]Washington State +39 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I look at this game as a buy/sell situational game. Washington State's loss against Oregon State at home was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated and Oregon's road win against Washington was not nearly as dominating. Yet 70% of the betting public is taking Oregon at this high number. Washington State turned the ball over 6 times late in that game against Oregon State otherwise that game was a game, but allowing 52 points to Oregon State makes this spread about a TD higher than it would have been. I think we are getting value when you look at California being +38.5 here and losing by a half a point. Washington State actually went on the road as -1.5 favorite and beat California by 3 TD's. Oregon also clearly looking ahead in this spot when you you look they have UCLA and Stanford up next and both hold the keys to their season.

Washington state put up 26 and 28 points the last two years and this offense has clearly improved in its second year with Mike Leach as Halliday has improved his completion % by 11% compared to last year. The offensive line has a lot to do with is ranked 17th in sack % compared to last year being among the worst. Washington State can stay in this game as they pass the ball more than anyone else in the league and are good at it. Oregon's pass rush is not as good as a year ago and they have yet to face a team that can pass the ball like this which is ranked 8th in the nation. Washington's defense is nothing to sneeze at either and was extremely young last year yet they only trailed Oregon 23-19 at the half. I expect Washington State to be in this game and getting nearly 6 TD's to play with is even better. The defense has a bigger and stronger and more athletic front 4 than Washington and the secondary has allowed 9 TD's and 11 interceptions so they are not as bad as what many are thinking, but Vegas is squeezing more and more money out of the public, but I wont' fall for it.

[b]Dodgers -125 5.5* MLB POD[/b]
Clayton Kershaw has to come up with a big game and beat the hot Michael Wacha who I feel is finally going to come back to earth a bit on Friday night. The Dodgers hitters looked really comfortable at the plate in their last start and are 52-20 in their last 72 vs. RH Starter. Meanwhile the Cardinals have struggled all year vs. LHP and I don't see how it's going to all of a sudden change. In their last 10 they are hitting .156 vs. LHP with just 1.69 runs per 9. At home the Cardinals are scoring 2.02 less runs per 9 vs. LHP compared with RHP and Kershaw is bound to go the complete game here on Friday night.

Kershaw is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.06 ERA this season, but even more importantly he's off back to back games of less than 100 pitches with 72 and 91 pitch totals. He's got plenty in his tank right now and posts a 1.43 ERA in a start following a start with less than 100 pitches. That has happened 10 times this year with quality starts in every start with only 1 allowing 3 ER which came of 7.1 innings. Kershaw has had his issues at times with the Cardinals, but that's why we are getting decent value at -125.

[b]UCF +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
By now it's obvious that Central Florida has clearly had the more challenging schedule early on beating Penn State in Happy Valley and almost beating South Carolina at home. Louisville is the real deal, but we have seen them struggle in two games this year. The first against Kentucky where they allowed them to run for 5.23 yards per carry and watching that game you could see Kentucky was right in that game, but they lost their QB and turned the ball over 3 times. Against Rutgers they struggled too, but Rutgers handed them the win with 4 turnovers and now they face a Central Florida team that is +7 in turnover margin and have only lost the ball 5 times all year.

Central Florida has extra time to prepare for this game and it's every bit as big of a game for them to make a statement. The players and coaches have been staying quiet giving Louisville all the praise, but deep down I know they want to come out and make a state on Friday night so they can get some national respect themselves and have the lead on the BCS spot that the AAC is still entitled to. Central Florida is the best defense Louisville has faced all year and the best offense as they are perfectly balanced on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball, they cans top the run, they can pass the ball and they can stop the pass. All of Louisville's opponents had at least two flaws if not 3 or 4. The schedule has been terrible just take a look at the pass defenses they've faced 108th, 120th, 105th, 104th, and 92nd. Central Florida is ranked top 50 in many of the major pass defensive categories. Louisville's defense which has been so good has faced only one team in the top 75 in yards per carry average and only 1 team that can pass, but never a team that could do both efficiently and that's Central Florida.

So why 14.5 points? Friday night lights, home, Terry Bridgewater and Central Florida coming off a near loss vs. Memphis, but I think Memphis defense is for real and better than people are giving credit. Also I felt Central Florida was a bit hung over from their loss vs. South Carolina in a game that they absolutely had. People keep pointing to Louisville's big win last year in the bowl game, but I still think Florida had absolutely no interest in that game.

Cardinals +7 -120 5.5* NFL POD/ Cardinals +235 1* bonus
Seahawks come into this game off a tough and challenging game on their own turft against a gritty tough Titans team without an offense. Now they go on the road as a TD favorite against the Cardinals who could win this game. The Cardinals are a similar team to the Titans although I believe they have more weapons on the offensive side of the ball with Fitzgerald. This will be Andre Ellington's coming out party tonight and the Cardinals top 5 defense will have a huge game. Russell Wilson has been great in the year and a half as the QB, but he often has to bring his team from behind and that's what we will see here. Unfortunately for him the Cardinals secondary is a ball hawking secondary that he may have some issues with especially since the Cardinals have the speed in their front 7 to keep him in the pocket. Cardinals won 20-16 at home to open up 2012, and then they lost 58-0 in Seattle which I'm sure they remember. Arizona held their own last week against the 49ers, but 4 turnovers in their own territory usually spells blow out, but they still had opportunities to win but fell short. Cardinals will clean up the turnovers and win with the defense int he end.

[b]Red Sox +114 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Red Sox should have this series in the bag as it seems like the Tigers are dead now after they nearly had the series in control and they choked again last night the Red Sox should cruise through today's game and look to wrap the series up. The Tigers bats and untimely hitting have been the difference as this team is struggling .212 and 2.39 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games. They'll face Jake Peavy who has pitched better than his stats indicate so we are getting tremendous value here on Wednesday night. Peavy had 1 start this year vs. the Tigers allowed 4 ER on only 4 hits in 7 innings. 3 of the 4 hits were home runs. That won't happen in Detroit not in the playoffs. Plus he owns the Tigers hottest hitter in Johny Peralta who is just 7-34 against Peavy. Most of this line up is struggling with Cabrera 7-31 in October, Fielder 8-29 with 0 HR, Hunter 6-33, Jackson 3-33, Avilla 5-25, Infante 5-28. Victor Martinez has hit well, but his questionable for this game. Doug Fister will have his hands full in this one as he allowed 11 hits 6 ER in a home start to the Red Sox earlier this year. He's not a power pitcher who strikes out many batters so the Red Sox are going to be putting a ton of balls in play and that will only benefit them as they continue to dominate RHP.

LA Laffayette +4.5 3.3* Sun Belt GOW
This will be the first time Western Kentucky's defense faces a dual threat QB as they were lucky enough to miss Kolt Browning who had an injury last week. Terrance Broadway is a dual threat QB who had 145 yards rushing against the Hilltoppers a year ago on just 14 carries. He is paired with a couple of good running backs in Alonzo Harris and Elijah Mcguire who are both averaging well over 5 yards per carry. Broadway also has a 158 QB rating as he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempts and has 10 TD's to 4 interceptions. This is every bit of a balanced offense, but it relies on the running game first and that's where they can have success against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is 86th allowing 4.7 ypc and they've only played traditional running attacks. If there is no threat of a pass they can absolutely stop the run and have done so this year, but add in a mobile QB that can also pass and I think the Rajin Cajuns will be able to move the ball fine and score some points. They are converting 72% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and 48% of their third downs both numbers are better than Western Kentucky's offense.

Western Kentucky should have it's success too. Lafayette has allowed too many passing yards, but I view the Hilltoppers as a one dimensional offense that doesn't know it yet. They came off a ton of passing yards in their last game and broke a record as Brandon Doughy was 24-36 for 370 yards 2 TD's and 1 interception against LA Monroe. Doughty has been really inconsistent and already has 10 interceptions on the season to go with just 7 TD's. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnover margin while Lafayette is +6. Lafayette also is very disciplined averaging just 3.7 penalties per game on the road compared to Western Kentucky who is nearly at 7. I just think 4.5 points is far too many for a balanced offense facing a defense that struggles to stop the run. Western Kentucky will move the ball fine, but Lafayette's defense is very good in the red zone only allowing 50% TD's and their biggest weakness which has been special teams coverage will not haunt them tonight as Western Kentucky has one of the worst return games in the country.

Chargers +115 5.5* NFL POD
This is a huge game for the Chargers. Actually I think it's a season changing depending on the result. The Colts meanwhile are coming off some big wins against the NFC Wests 49ers and Seahawks. It took every ounce of effort to hold off the Seahawks a week ago and now they have to travel across country to play a Monday night game against a team that's just going to have more energy. Colts also are going to be looking ahead to the Broncos who they will host next Sunday night. Nobody is going to admit to looking ahead to an opponent but Manning returning to Indianapolis is definitely something this team is looking at. The game against the Chargers is like a pre season game before the Super Bowl and the Chargers need a win to stay in playoff contention.

What's new about the Chargers this year? They are able to protect the QB as they are ranked 5th in fewest sack% on the year with a 4.04%. King Dunlap is probable tonight and that's a huge key to this game. Rivers is flying under the radar here and is actually 2nd in the league to only Peyton Manning in QB rating. He gets the benefit of facing the Colts poor run defense thats' bottom of the league in ypc allowed. Rivers with a decent running game and protection is a top tier QB especailly off play action with a healthy Antonio Gates too. There is a reason this team is converting 71% of their red zone appearnces into TD's at home. Colts defense is allowing 70% TD's on the road and a good reason is because opponents are able to run the ball and it becomes harder to keep a team from a TD when you can't stop the run.

The biggest reason why I love the Chargers tonight aside from the scheduling advantage is Phillip Rivers. The Colts have yet to play a pocket passer this season. They've faced Terrel Pryor, Collin Kaepaernick, Russell Wilson, Chad Henne, and Ryan Tannehill. Tanehill is the closest to a pocket passer and he beat the Colts in their own building. Wilson and Kaepernick are considered top tier QB's, but Wilson's numbers won't blow you away early in the game and Kaepernick has been off all year long. Rivers would be the best pure throwing QB this Colts team has faced and I think they could be in trouble especially when they set up third and short.

Dodgers +108 4.5* MLB POD
Okay, people are acting like the Dodgers were blown out in both games, but easily could have taken both or at least a split. I don't think this team is in a panic right now even though they have to face Adam Wainwright who we will get to in a second. First Ryu needs a bit of an introduction. He was bad in his start vs. the Braves, and was pulled early. Ryu is plenty fresh and faces a Caridnals team that struggles big time vs. LHP. Not only are they 3-7 in their last 10vs. LHP on the road, but in their last 10 games they are hitting .189 vs. LHP. They were 26th in the regular season in OPS vs. LHP and Ryu pitched a gem on the road against them 7 IP 0 ER. This game is at home where he posts a 2.61 ERA. Cards are 6-15 in their last 21 road games vs. a winning record.

In my last write up of game 5 with Wainwright on the mound I talked about his pure dominance on 5 days rest. He came out pitched a complete game allowing 1 ER in the win. Now he has to go on 4 days rest after that emotional start where he just gave everything he had. Not only does he have to go on 4 days rest, but he's traveling cross country to the west coast to do so. A look back at his 4 starts on 4 days rest following 9 innings pitched this season and he posts a 7.43 ERA. I had to look back to his 2010 year where he was great to see the last time he went on the west coast on 4 days rest after a complete game and he faced the Dodgers allowed 4 ER in 6 innings. Dodgers will make the necessary adjustments they are hitting .282 and have a .817 OPS this post season vs. RHP meanwhile the Cardinals are hitting .149 and have a .436 OPS this post season vs. LHP. I think Dodgers get back into the series here tonight!

Red Sox -126 4.5* MLB POD Bucholz in his home starts vs. the Tigers has been dominating with a 1.20 ERA while allowing just 16 hits in 30 inning. It's not like the Tigers have been ripping the ball they scored just 1 run and the Red Sox will do everything they can to avoid going down 2-0. I don't think there is any way they lose this game. Even yesterday they grinded out at bats for 6 walks against Scherzer they just could not come up with the big hit, but with a game under their belt I think they do. Max Scherzer has been dominating this year, but in 8 career starts vs. the Red Sox he's got a 7.01 ERA. Tigers are also just 16-36 in their last 52 games at Boston.

Raiders +9 5.5* NFL POD
I'll get a lot of crazy looks today in passing as I get asked who I'm on today as my POD, but that's why I've been so successful in my career on NFL POD's. KC has been nothing but great this year and hasn't lost game and will host the Raiders on Sunday with all the confidence. I love taking a dog of over a TD in a divisional game. The Raiders have always played well in the division. Their win last week over the Chargers was hidden because they didn't play until 11:30pm est last week so I think we still have a ton of value here.

I'm not saying the Raiders are going to go on the road and get a win, but this team led the Colts on the road and lost by only 4. Raiders have a ton of team speed to give the Chiefs problems on both sides of the ball. First off Terrel Pryor is dangerous and the Chiefs did allow Michael Vick to rush for 99 yards on just 5 carries which also opened things up for McCoy who had 158 so watch out in this one as KC is 30th allowing 5.2 ypc.

KC also likes to eat up the clock and I think Oakland's defense is flying under the radar where the Chiefs offense is still not as good as advertised. It helps to have the best average field position of any other team. In the end KC is 25th in 3rd down offense and 19th in the red zone with just 1 TD on 5 red zone appearances last week. Chiefs could be peaking ahead to their game against the Texans. The dog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the road team is 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28.

Ole Miss +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
70% of the public are all over Texas A&M and I'm scratching my head because this spread does look a little low if you don't know much about each team especially since Ole Miss got all the hype going into Alabama and they came out losing 25-0. Now we get value with Ole Miss as the public are not buying anything they were selling earlier in the season. However, people also forget Ole Miss returns 18 starters from a year ago including 10 on defense. It's the same defense that Johny Manziel played his worst game against last year as A&M was trailing 27-17 to start the 4th quarter before coming back and winning 30-27.

Manziel only completed 17-26 for 191 yards and had 2 interceptions. He'll go up against a Ole Miss secondary that's ranked 2nd in best in the SEC. Meanwhile Texas A&M's defense has been almost embarrassing allowing over 6 yards per carry and too many passing yards. Ole Miss back at home after a tough road schedule while A&M is finally going on the road for only the second time. This could be a rude awakening for A&M that is getting too much hype. Ole Miss can run with senior Jeff Scott and pass with Bo Wallace connecting to one of the best WR duo's int he SEC in Donte Moncarief and Laquon Treadwell. Ole Miss struggled to score in the red zone which really cost them the last two weeks but A&M's defense is allowing 71% TD's there. In the end I think Miss and their no huddle offense has a huge day that not even Johny Manziel can keep up with as Ole Miss will force him into a few mistakes again and come up with a shocking victory on Saturday.

Red Sox -137 5.5* MLB POD I can't even believe the Tigers are here again but they are and they send Anibal Sanchez to the mound who led the American League in ERA. Sanchez had a 2.44 ERA on the road, but over his last three starts he posted a 5.65 ERA. I think Sanchez is a bit over rated when you look at his road starts he's nearly walking 3 guys per 9 and he did not face a single team in the top 5 in hitting vs RHP all year and now he has to face the Red Sox who were #1 with a .818 OPS by a wide margin. He only faced 2 teams on the road ranked inside the top 10 so you could say he had the easy schedule. He will have his hands full with the Red Sox line up that just continues to make pitchers work for everything and we know about the Tigers struggles out of the bullpen. The Red Sox send a Jon Lester to the mound who posted a 2.57 ERA in 13 starts since the All Star break. Lester has been dominant down the stretch and continued that into the post season with a great start vs. the Rays 7.2 innings and 2 ER. He has a 2.54 career ERA in 9 games in post season play with 7 starts. He's on extra rest here facing a Tigers team that's not itself offensively and was not very good vs LHP on the road only scoring 3.65 runs per 9. Lester had 3.03 ERA at home and allowed 1 ER over 7 innings in his home start vs. the Tigers. Lester comes into this game on extra rest and he's got 8 of 9 quality starts in that situation at home posting a 2.63 ERA overall. It all starts at the top of the line up and Ellsbury right now is 9-18 in the playoffs while Austin Jackson is 2-20 with 13K's.

USC -6 4.4* NCAAF POD USC can finally move on after their bye week after firing Lane Kiffin. Ed Orgeron who was the defensive line coach will take over and players have already embraced him and I think we will see a complete 180 from them on Thursday night at home. One of their best defensive players George Uko said, "We're happy to be out here . . . we really like to go to practice . . . it's fun to be out here now . . . it just feels like there's more energy . . . it's lots of little things." That's huge because it did seem like under Kiffin the players just were not playing for him, but make no mistake about it this defense is very good. They held every other team they faced to 14 points or less before allowing 62 last week which I would just say was a bad game for a team that didn't care about their head coach. Now back at home with extra time to prepare for Arizona team that is completely one dimensional with only a running game and I think they'll dominate. Arizona can not pass and only rely on KaDeem Carey at running back, but USC has been stout against the run allowing just 2.85 ypc at home over three games. Arizona's QB BJ Denker is only completing just 50% of his passes, 2 TD and 2 INT as well as 4.9 yards per attempt. USC will be all over the running game here and should force Arizona into third and longs which they are not capable of converting. USC has held opponents to 31% conversions on third down. USC's offense can run the ball coming up with a 6.7 ypc average in their last game and they get some added depth with Silas Redd back. USC is also more capable of passing the ball as Cody Kessler is completing 63% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempts with 6 TD and 4 interceptions. Overall we are getting nice value here because of how badly the defense played for USC in their last game. Now they come home with a new coach who they seem to enjoy playing for and they are facing a defense that just gave up 244 rushing yards in their last game with a one dimensional offense. Trojans win big here.

Athletics +102 4.5* MLB POD
Game #5 and Verlander on the mound for the Tigers who have to feel good about their chances, but they are nearly under dogs? Verlander's pedigree has the public running to bet him tonight, but I'm not going to fall into that trap. Despite pitching a brilliant game already in this series I'm still not buying into Verlander who is having an off year with over 3 walks per 9 and a tERA nearing 4. Verlander as brilliant as he was only went 7 innings in the 1-0 loss in this series, and only went 5 and 6 innings in his other two starts against the A's which is a major problem because if this turns into a game of the bullpens the A's have a major advantage.

Sonny Gray will make the start for the A's and all Gray did was go 8 innings allowing only 5 base runners and 0 ER in his first post season start. Gray has excellent stuff and I expect similar things from him tonight at home where he posts a 1.66 ERA this year in 48 innings. He's got better K, and control numbers than Verlander this year and a lower tERA with just 19.5 line drive %. Tigers also have struggled due to Cabrera not being 100% and have a .217 average over their last 10 games vs. RHP scoring just 2.10 runs per 9. While the A's are hitting .268 and scoring 5.79.

Cardinals -156 5* MLB POD
The Dodgers got lucky when Don Mattingly made a bold move starting Clayton Kershaw on 3 days rest for the first time in his career as they had to come from behind and win. Mike Matheny did not panic and push up Wainwright's start instead he started a rookie in Michael Wacha on the road and that's where this series turned around, because now the Cardinals have Wainwright on 5 days rest at home in a decision game. You really have to dive into the stats to realize how good Wainwright has been. First of all you can ignore his struggles that came last year against Pittsburgh as Wainwright clearly was not himself coming off Tommy John. This year in 3 home starts he is 3-0 with 23K's 5BB's with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He's had dominating stuff at home all year long and on 5 days rest he has a 1.50 ERA at home averaging 8 innings pitched over 6 starts. In 11 starts this year on extra rest he has a 1.67 ERA. His cutter and curve ball are just that much better on extra rest and when you look at his last two home starts against the Pirates they managed 0% line drives and 5.6% line drives. That is flat out dominating.

Gerrit Cole is going to be a star in this league, but this just is not the best spot for him. First of all Cole has great numbers on the road and we thank him for that otherwise this spread would be -200. Cole however, has not faced a top 10 team in OPS vs. RHP in any of his road starts and has only faced two all year in Colorado (5.1/3ER) and Oakland (7/2ER). He throws his average 96mph fastball 65% of the time but the Cardinals rarely swing and miss and are #1 in line drive %. This is a gritty Cardinals offense that after seeing Cole already in the series should be able to get to him. Cole has a tERA of 3.79 and opponents have a 24.8% line drive rate. He's pitching on the road against a storied franchise with the weight of the Pirates history of struggles on his back. In the end the Cardinals have the better starter on the bump, the better offense to support him, the home field advantage, and I would say at this point the bullpen is even. I only say that because it's all hands on deck in the post season so you only see the cream of the crop and the Cardinals have some great arms out there. This is a premium price to pay for a game, but I can't help it I like the Cardinals that much here.

[b]Red Sox -113 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Red Sox lost a tough one and I'll back them tonight as I'll be playing them for the first time in this series. I'll go through the pitching match ups but this play is being made mostly on how this Red Sox offense handles itself. They are by far the best hitting team right now and everyone in this club house loves each other. Now they'll face Jeremy Hellickson who has had their number, but really struggled down the stretch posting a 7.82 ERA. Hellickson really has struggled to go deep into games in the situation he is in tonight which is a playoff atmosphere and on an unordinary amount of extra rest. Hellickson won't be sharp like he has to be against this Red Sox team that is led by David Ortiz who is 9-24 off Hellickson and 4-9 in the series with 2 HR. Hellickson also posted a 4.77 ERA at home and a 5.55 ERA at night in over 130 innings this year. Hellickson will likely be bounced form this game early and the Rays bullpen has not been dominant. Hellickson has not shown the poise to get out of jams all year only stranding 66% runners on base in this year. The league average is around 74%.

Jake Peavy on the other hand has performed very well this season when he's been on 6 or more days of rest and over his last three starts vs. the Rays has very good numbers allowing only 14 hits in 20 innings sporting a 1.05 WHIP. Ben Zoborist has hit him 4-13, but is struggling, 2-11 in the series. Evan Longoria is 3-15 against Peavy and 2-9 in the series. Delmon Young, Dejesus, Jennings, Joyce, Escobar, and Molina are a combined 9-65 against Peavy for an average of .138. Peavy is backed by a much better offense right now and a team that does not want a game 5. Boston overall has scored 1.55 more runs per 9 vs. RHP on the season, 1.31 more for home/away splits and over their last 5 are scoring 11.21 runs per 9, and their last 10 8.65. Peavy's struggles have been against James Loney who is not someone who can change the game with one swing with only 13 HR on the year while Hellickson struggles have come against Ortiz who had 30 HR (23 vs. RHP) and a ridiculous 1.092 OPS vs. RHP. I see Hellickson going 4-5 innings allowing 3-4 ER while Peavy goes 6 allowing 2-3. Boston's bullpen has been better when you look at their last 3 appearances each and I think they will be able to get by with a win here.

Cardinals -110 5.5* MLB POD
It seems like just yesterday I was facing Charlie Morton in high school baseball and now he

[b]Dodgers -137 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Braves had a losing record on the road this season and Julio Teheran makes his first start against the Dodgers. He's got a 3.38 ERA on the road but has given up 4 runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Dodgers may take an inning or two to adjust to Teheran, but I think they can make him work and bounce him out of this game early. Teheran's tERA is 4.03 and he's allowing 3% more line drives than the Dodgers starter Ryu. Dodgers are are also hitting the ball hard 24.4% line drive rate over the last 7 days compared to 20.7% for the Braves.

Ryu is another under rated pitcher as he posts a 2.33 ERA at home and a 2.44 ERA at night. The Braves saw him twice and struggled as he posted an ERA under 3 against them, but was flat out dominant on extra rest at home pitching 7.2 innings and allowing 1 ER against the Braves earlier this season. He's got a 1.51 ERA at home this year when he made a start on extra rest where he does tonight. Ryu has a good fast ball change up with good control and gets more ground balls while Teheran is more prone to the home run ball that could easily change this game. Both bullpens have been nasty, but the Dodgers have pitched better down the stretch and are fresher in game 3. I think the Dodgers win a close one on Sunday night.

Titans +3 +105 5.5* NFL POD
This is another reason why I hope you have multiple books to shop because if you are stuck with 2.5 you'd have to buy points, but in this spot I still like the Titans to win outright. Everyone is pointing towards the Chiefs being 4-0 and how quickly people forget how lucky they have been. People will also point to the Titans playing without Jake Locker and it's the exact reasons why the public is pounding the Chiefs again today, but who is Jake Locker anyway. Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly capable of doing everything Locker was doing if not more. His football IQ is up there and he should be able to put the Titans in a position to win today.

Luck plays a lot into betting and if you don't believe me then you were not on my Northwestern +7.5 play yesterday against Ohio State. The Chiefs have been very lucky. They have had the best average field position of any NFL team this season and it's made their offense look rather respectable. Chiefs will have issues picking up first downs today as the Titans are 6th in sack % and 5th in 3rd down conversions allowing just 32% conversions. The Titans have more offensive weapons and as good of a defense and have already put up big numbers vs. very good defenses (see Jets and Texans game). This is absurd that they are under dogs at home after starting 3-1 and I think they'll improve to 4-1 after today.