Athletics +115 5* MLB POD Despite winning last night which we predicted on our POD, the Tigers are in major trouble. Miguel Cabrera is a shell of himself. Yes he can still hit better than 90% of guys that would replace him, but he should be DH'ng. I saw two plays last night and I'm sure there were more. One was a pop fly off the third base line that Cabrera trotted to catch and was 10 ft away. It was a play that 99% of third basemen would make and that kept the at bat alive. It did not come back to hurt them, but the A's is not a team you want to give extra pitches. Cabrera's injury has really pulled this offense down and it's amazing to realize just how good he is. The offense is scoring just 1.37 runs per 9 over their last 5 and they face a very dangerous pitcher here today in Sonny Gray. Gray could be an All Star next year and posts a 1.99 ERA over 40.2 IP at home with a 0.93 WHIP. He has some poise and good control for a young pitcher and he's striking out more than 9 guys per 9 to go along with his average 93 mph pitch with a nasty curve on the back side. He'll go toe to toe with Justin Verlander who most people will back because of his pedigree.

Verlander did not have a good year this year with a 1.46 WHIP and 4.64 ERA during night starts. His control was all over the place in some starts and while he's still capable of throwing a complete game shut out the A's are a very good hitting team and I expect them to rebound from last night. In 2 starts vs. Oakland this year Verlander has only gone 11 inning given up 13 BR and 4ER. Donaldson, Crisp and Cespedes all have good numbers against him and Oakland is 64-27 in their last 91 home games vs. RH starter.

Michigan State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Michigan State lost a heart breaker in over time at home last year which is something they clearly remember. Now with the solid win for Iowa over a very bad Minnesota team that was over rated to begin with and a Michigan State loss @ Notre Dame with the offense struggling big time. This game is about running the ball and stopping the run with both defenses ranked in the top 10 with solid running games. Connor Cook has to bounce back for Michigan State at QB following his first road test at Notre Dame. I believe Cook will bounce back after a bye week as this kid has plenty of confidence and the arm to make any play on the field. In the bye week he worked a lot on his foot work and I think we will see it early against Iowa. Cook also has taken care of the ball without throwing an INT.

Michigan State sports the better defense in this one and they are a bit more balanced where as Iowa is 9th in the country with a 66% run play call percentage. Michigan State is #2 allowing just 1.9 ypc. Iowa's success running the ball has set up 3rd and short, but against Michigan State they will have to throw the ball which is not going to be easy. This pass defense is better than in years past as they finally have a guy that can get to the QB on his own in Shilique Calhoun. Iowa does not have the receivers to draw penalties like Notre Dame did as Michigan State caught unlucky breaks from the referees. Jake Rudock is going to have a hard time completing anything the way Michigan State plays defense with press coverage and he already has 4 interceptions.

Both defenses have played one quality offensive opponent this year, MSU played Notre Dame while Iowa played Northern Illinois. Michigan State completely dominated the line of scrimmage on the road against Michigan State while Iowa hosted Northern Illinois and allowed 438. What was also hidden in the Notre Dame game was how well this Michigan State offensive line played. They're ranked 20th in least sack% and only allowed 6 hits on Cook. Iowa's front seven is also very good, but with the week of preparation it makes Michigan State a must play as they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Special teams is also an advantage for the Spartans as they feature an All-Big10 punter in Sadler who is great at pinning teams inside the 20.

Tigers -122 4.5* MLB POD This is about the time of the year where the A's luck runs out. Although I think they are a dangerous team to face this post season they just run into the wrong match up. Tigers staff is full of RH power pitchers which is something the A's have not hit well. Max Scherzer has been flat out dominant with over 10K's per 9 and 21 wins. He's got a 2.28 ERA in 16 road starts where he's been even better than home as opponents have a ridiculous .177 batting average against him. Scherzer is absolutely the type of pitcher that can dominate in the post season with a great fast ball and good control with his slider and change up. Bartolo Colon on the other hand has been lucky all season it seems. His xERA has gone up every month of the season, but his ERA keeps getting lucky. This fatty has basically one pitch that he throws 85% of the time and it's a fast ball. The Tigers were #3 in fast ball value this year and have a .871 OPS against Colon over 187 career at bats. They have faced Colon 3 times over the last year and a half and have 24 hits in 14.1 innings pitched producing 11 ER. Colon has been living on a prayer for most of this seasona nd I can't see him pitching well in this spot against a Tigers line up that can hit. Scherzer has an extra 2 days rest here and is 39-13 in his last 52 starts.

Over 61 3.3* Play
Utah and UCLA meet late tonight with two balanced offenses that can beat you in the air and on the ground. It's not shocking that UCLA has those capabilities as they did it well last year and returned mostly everyone on offense with a very deep group of receivers led by Shaq Evans. Utah's defense has struggled agaisnt dual threat offenses including Chuckie Keeton from Utah State. Sean Mannion came in here and just threw his way to victory exposing Utah's secondary. UCLA has been excellent on third down converting at nearly 70% and that transitions well int he red zone where they are converting 71% of those opportunities into TD's. Utah is a tough place to play, but UCLA put up big numbers at Nebraska after a slow start. Tonight they don't have to worry about the early start in a different time zone and should be good from the start. Brett Hundley will have another great game tonight and will be getting more hype from NFL scouts.

However, I can't play the spread on this with 70% of the public feeding on the hype they have quickly forgotten UCLA's struggles. Even at Nebraska it seemed like they were going to have troubles stopping their offense. Utah has a better offense and clearly has turned it around with the dual threat Tyler Wilson leading the show. Wilson is bigger, strongers, faster and he's making better decisions than a year ago. It helps when you bring in a great coach to run the offense like Dennis Erickson. Erickson has led a balanced unit and Wilson has been poised all year long. UCLA's secondary is very beatable. They basically had to start over from last year's team that ranked 82nd and so far this season they are not getting as much push up front and creating sacks. Tyler Martinez who is not known for his arm threw 3 TD's and 0 interceptions against UCLA. Utah is not afraid to throw the ball down field and the speedy Dres Anderson should put up a monster game for Utah keeping them in this battle. They can score in the red zone 9-12 at home this year for 75%. UCLA is allowing 62% red zone conversions, but going against a balanced offense on the road will give them more issues. UCLA allowed 75% red zone TD% last year on the road. I see a ton of points here especially with field position being a big issue. Most of the time these punters out kick their coverage especially in the altitude. I bet Shaq Evans runs one back here for UCLA as Utah is allowing 17.20 yards per return. I think both teams will be set up great on field position if their defense is able to make any stops.

In the end I think UCLA gets a close win, but both of these defenses are too agressive and the offenses are smart enough to counter with play action passes especially UCLA who will run that out of the read option offense and come up with big passing plays. Both teams come off a bye, but it won't help their defense. Mora out of the bye last year gave up 43 poitns on the road while Utah gave up 38 points at home after their bye week last year. Both offenses put up big numbers there too and expect them to benefit the most from the extra preparation.

Dodgers -138 4.5* MLB POD Clayton Kershaw really needs no introduction here, but his 2.14 ERA on the road does. Atlanta has just 1 HR in Kershaw's 4 starts against them, but they have not seen him since 2011. Kershaw has really polished his skills since then and is baseball's most dominant pitcher. The Braves look like their offense is major trouble and they look like they are in panic by leaving Dan Uggla off the roster. Atlanta strikes out far too much and relies on the home run ball. They actually have a losing record when they don't hit a home run. Kershaw is allowing 0.46 HR/9 and 5.8% HR per fly ball. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding down the stretch and when you look at the numbers they have been better than the Braves. We are getting value because Kris Medlen was nasty down the stretch with a 0.40 ERA over his final 3 starts, but he's been facing off against cupcakes. Over his last 5 starts he's faced the Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Marlins and Mets. People forget Medlen was having a down year before his end of year domination. I don't trust pitchers like Medlen in the playoffs and I still don't against the Dodgers. He's allowed 24.1 LD% this season compared with 18.5% last year and his tERA is 4.35 compared with Kershaw at 2.86. Thought the Dodgers are without Ethier and Kemp they still have Puig, Ramirez and Gonzalez which are enough to get them a win in game 1.

Rays -113 5.5* MLB POD
This is where the Rays show off their dominating starting pitching. We were on the wrong side of their first game and now I feel they have all the momentum. It also helps that this team has been playing their last few series like every pitch matters because they were going against tough competition (Rangers/Jays/Yankees/Orioles) while the Indians won their last 10 straight it was against (Twins/White Sox/Astrons and WhiteSox). The Indians have not played a playoff team since August and lost 5 of 6 to Detroit and Atlanta. They have not faced one at home since August 1st when they got swept by the Tigers in 4 games. Indians were very lucky to have an easy schedule down the stretch and they lost 4 of 6 to the Royals another team in the playoff hunt. Facing the Rays is going to be a huge step up in competition. The Indians overall are 7-14 at home vs. playoff teams this year including 1-2 vs. the Rays.

The Rays will send Alex Cobb to the mound who has very good raw numbers including a 3.02 xFIP. His 2.70 ERA on the road and 2.70 ERA at night indicate he can handle this type of pressure. In 3 career starts vs. the Indians he has a 2.69 ERA and has held them to a .230 average and a .607 OPS. Cobb was flat out dominant down the stretch against teams going for the wild card posting a 1.16 ERA while striking out 26 batters and walking only 5 against the Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers. He has a 2.41 ERA in 9 post AS starts and only 140 innings on his arm this season. On 5 days rest he should be fresh and ready to go tonight.

On the flip side the Indians also send out a young pitcher in Danny Salazar who has some of the best raw numbers our there. The guy has been great and has averaged over 96mph on his fast ball. I think those are the reasons we are getting such great value on this play, but Salazar is just a 23 year old rookie who likes to over throw. I don't think he can control his emotions in this setting and he's already given up 7 HR in 52 IP this year despite his skills. There is enough time and tape out there for the Rays hitters to get a good idea on what Salazar will do tonight. Teams have hit Salazar of late (6runs last 2 starts) and I think he's benefited from an easy schedule too. Cleveland is finally getting a major step up in competition something they have not seen in over a month. It will be different when the opponent actually tries to beat you and the Rays are very good at this.

[b]Dolphins +7 +100 4* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have cashed a ton for me this year and I did not expect to get this kind of value here again on Monday night football, but getting a TD against a Saints team that is flawed is something I can't turn down.

The Saints are a one dimensional offense that can be beat with a good pass rush which is something the Dolphins clearly have. The Dolphins are actually also top 10 in some key passing defense categories including opponent completion %, opponent yards per attempt, and opponent QB rating. Now the Saints defense has been great allowing 13 points per game and has been tough to score on in the red zone. However, the Falcons are struggling to find consistency, the Cardinals can't move the chains and the Bucs are also struggling on offense. Those are the three teams the Saints have faced this year and any defense would find success in that situation in my opinion. In come the Dolphins who seem to have the perfect balance of running and passing on offense.

Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a great start to this season ranking 6th in completion percentage and 10th with a 94.3 QB rating. What is most important is he's 3rd in moving the change picking up 50% of his third down attempts, and he's #1 in the red zone orchestrating an offense that succeeds with a TD 87% of the time. The Saints defense will be challenged tonight and they will give up some points. I think the Dolphins will have a shot to win this game because this is the best pass rush Brees sees all year and I don't think the Dolphins are prone to give up the deep quick scores that Brees uses to blow out teams on a Monday night. Close win for the Saints 23-20, but we will cover the spread.

[b]Rangers +107 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Rangers needed 7 straight victories just to force this game and a little help along the way which they got from the Blue Jays as the Rays barely got by yesterday and lost 2 of three in Toronto. Now they have to travel to Texas to play the next day against a tough lefty. The Rays have a losing record on the road overall and an 11-13 vs. LH starters. Texas meanwhile is 16-5 at home over their last 21 vs. a team with a losing road record. They are also 31-19 this season vs. LH starter and are scoring 6.86 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP while Tampa has struggled at just 3.65.

David Price still gets to be favored because of his name and pedigree and that I can not argue with, but everything else tells me the Rangers are the play and being under dogs gives us value. Price has not pitched well in Texas over his career and the Texas hitters have hit him hard in 129 AB they have a .929 OPS. Price has actually struggled more than you think down the stretch and has not been Cy Young type. Now he could come in and dominate, but I think the Rangers just have an edge here with Martin Perez on the mound backed by an elite bullpen.

The Rays have never seen Perez pitch and he's been good down the stretch and has a 3.18 ERA at home this season. The bullpen for the Rangers has been outstanding with a 1.76 ERA over their last 10 games combined, but more importantly they have more talent and a 1.80 ERA over their last 3 appearances for each reliever combined. Tampa L3 combined has a 4.84 ERA and a 4.44 ERA overall on the road. The bullpen will be what eventually decides this game and the fact that Texas hitters are on a roll right now and have success against David Price and are under dogs leaves me no choice but to back the Rangers tonight.

Texans +2 5.5* NFL POD Houston went on the road and looked bad at Baltimore while the Seahawks dominated the Jaguars and 49ers in their last two games. There couldn't be more hype on the Seahawks right now they are covering spreads and dominating teams. We actually had the Panthers in week 1 and should have covered that game against Seattle, but Carolina wasted a lot of opportunities that I don't think Houston will. 60% of the public is backing the Seahawks on the road who still have yet to prove to me that they can win with their QB on the road especially against a top 5 defense which they are about to face on Sunday. Yes the Texans are still a top 5 defense despite all of the points they have given up which have been the result of some bad luck and some poor team play. They gave up a punt return TD and a defensive TD to Baltimore and committed 14 penalties which cost them 14 points and more when you factor in what the penalties did to drives. Being back at home should change that and I think we are getting value on this line because of how they have lost and given up points.

Houston's defense is actually ranked 2nd in yards allowed. Seattle has relied on their defense and their running game will have its hands full vs. Houston's front 7. I still think Houston is better on both sides of the ball this year from their draft pick of Deandre Hopkins and the return on defense of Brian Cushing. In the end this is Arian Foster's game and I'm predicting him to have a big one. The Seahawks allowed 5.2 ypc at Carolina and are ranked 18th on the year and Houston is arguably the best rushing team in the league when they commit to it with Foster and Ben Tate leading the way. I truly believe this is the game the Texans get back to the basics and dominate this game. They have to feel like they are getting slapped in the face being under dogs in their own building. Houston is 19-7 ATS int heir last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

[b]Yankees -165 5.5* MAX MLB POD[/b]
Most teams do not have anything to play for but the Yankees do and the offense really owes Andy Pettitte after he pitched 7 innings allowing just 2 ER in his last start at Yankee Stadium. How fitting is this he now pitches at Houston just 30 miles down the road from where he grew up. He'll have plenty of family and friends in the building and the Yankees offense really owes him to get his 11th win to go 11-11. Pettitte has pitched like an ace down the stretch posting a 2.09 ERA over his last 8 starts and the Astros have clearly hung it up a while ago scoring just 1.63 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined. Paul Clemens starts for Houston but has a 5.56 tERA and a 6.10 ERA at home.

Iowa -2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I have watched all of Minnesota's games this year except one and they have to be the luckiest 4-0 team. We lost ATS in two of those games, but I'm going heavy on Iowa to change that this week. First of all Minnesota has to be able to run the ball to win games and Iowa's run defense is just a perfect match up for us to back, because they are physical enough to shut it down. Iowa is a top 30 run defense right now allowing just 3.36 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. That has allowed the Iowa defense to be excellent on third down holding opponents to 24% conversions and in the red zone they have only allowed 1 TD on the season for a 16% TD percentage on red zone possessions. Minnesota is a one dimensional offense that won't be able to consistently put up points on the board.

Iowa on the other hand although they have not been great at one thing on offense they have shown at times they can do both. Over the last two games Jake Rudock has gained some confidence completing over 60% of his throws for 4 TD's and 0 INT's. David Fales showed just how leaky Minnesota's secondary is completing 22-35 passes for 439 yards and had a 185 QB rating, but his team just came up with too many mistakes. Iowa has several groups of running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry to balance the attack. They are averaging 50% conversions on third down and they are +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota was not just bad against San Jose State they allowed both UNLV and New Mexico State to complete 70% of their passes. They also allowed UNLV to run for 193 yards averaging 5.68 ypc and Iowa's running game is the best they have seen this year to date.

Red Sox -122 3.5* MLB POD Boston can basically win one game and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and I think they'd rather get it done sooner than later. Tonight they throw out their regular starting line up to face Scott Feldman who has been great since the All Star break, but his 4.44 ERA at home and 4.02 ERA at night and the fact the the Red Sox have a .340 average in 103 AB with a .984 OPS leads me to believe that the Red Sox hold some value here in this spot. Clay Bucholz has been slowly getting back into it and he's had a ton of success vs. the Orioles of late giving up just 3 ER in 24 innings over his last three starts. Bucholz is on 5 days rest here and the Orioles are hitting just .184 scoring 2.61 runs per 9 over their last 10. Meanwhile the Red Sox are scoring 5.54 during that same time frame. Boston over the last 2 weeks is #1 in LD% while the Orioles are 30th which is usually a clearer indication on how a team is hitting. I look for the Red Sox to come out and score some runs and their back end to shut down the Orioles in the process while the A's lose later to King Felix.

Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
Wow, the Rams have really been the one team I've backed multiple times that have let me down, but I think this is a make or break game for them and they always seem to play the best at home and Colin Kaepernick is getting figured out around the league. Maybe the game last week against the Colts was a hang over from their tough loss against the division rival Seahawks but usually teams in that scenario show a bit of life late in the game, but the 49ers did not. The last two games he is averaging less than 50% completions and has 0 TD to 4 interceptions. Now he goes into a hostile environment low confidence to face the Rams who had the leagues best pass rush which is about to show up in the loud dome. The Rams already played the 49ers tough last year tying in OT in San Francisco and winning at home in OT 16-13.

49ers are just banged up right now without Vernon Davis the offense has flat out failed. On defense it's a short week of preparation and they go on the road without their best two players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. Teams do not just turn on a switch and win a big game like this. Over the rest of the season the 49ers will regroup but not tonight. The Rams are still under valued here and if they did not start slow in previous games would have a winning record. I look for them to get a quick start behind the home crowd tonight as Sam Bradford works the spread with precision for an opening possession TD. Rams came out with a big win last year at home on a Thursday night over the Seahawks and I think they show up again tonight.

[b]Angels +162 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Angels have quietly come on strong to finish the year and I think they'll be motivated to treat this last 4 game series like their playoff game. They are trying to finish at .500 or better which means taking 3 of 4 from the Rangers and in the process forcing them out of the playoffs as the Rangers trail Tampa by 2 games and Cleveland by 1 game. The Angels have gone 16-5 in their last 21 road games and the Rangers have struggled to beat average teams never mind good teams like the Angels who are playing like a playoff team the last month or so.

Jerome Williams will take the mound who always gives the Angels a shot to win. He won't blow you away but he's pitched well against Texas and the Rangers really have not been killing the ball. Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. RH starters and if they weren't lucky to see Houston come to town they could have been out of it already. Matt Garza takes the mound for the Rangers and he's been sketchy at home and he is coming off a very good outing so I'll fade him here against the Angels who are hitting the ball thanks to Josh Hamilton finishing strong. Howie Kendrick back in the line up also helps as he's 6-9 vs. Garza while Trout is 3-7. Garza has a 5.31 ERA vs. the Angels this year and I think this is great value on the Angels side as the Rangers are over priced just because they "NEED TO WIN"

[b]Virginia Tech +7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Virginia Tech nearly lost to both East Carolina and Marshall out of Conference USA so we are getting value in their first game vs. the ACC especially since Georgia Tech had an impressive win over UNC last week and dominated Duke. With Vad Lee at QB they are calling him the "most complete" QB that Paul Johnson has had to run his triple option, but I see a lack of explosive plays with his running game and his 7TD to 1INT are nice passing the ball, but against an FCS opponent and Duke and North Carolina who combine for just 12 sacks and 38 tackles for loss I just don't see them in a 3rd in a long situation where he's going to get pressured. Facing Virginia Tech and Bud Foster's experienced defense will be different for the youngster. Foster's defense already has 16 sacks and 37 tackles for loss led by James Gayle and JR Collins.

Virginia Tech has the experience at linebacker to make the tackles too in Jack Tyler who had 17 tackles in last years match up. This defense is better than last year and I"m still not sold on this Georgia Tech offense behind Lee. Meanwhile an interesting development offensively for Virginia Tech has been the emergence of Chris Mangus who has averaged 6.5 ypc in the running game which has been what this offense has lacked since last year. Mangus can get to the edge and be a game changer. I think he'll get more opportunities tonight to spell Trey Edmunds and he'll make the most of it. UNC rushed for over 4 yards per carry last week and Virginia Tech also has a capable dual threat QB in Logan Thomas. I think this will be an ugly low scoring game, but in the end Bud Foster's defense will force some turnovers from Vad Lee as the inexperienced QB will finally see a capable defense.

Rays -164 5.5* MAX POD
Sometimes you have to over pay to get a winning play and at this point in the season the lines are slim picking. The Rays were my POD last night and again tonight. The Rays played a deflated Yankee team tonight and I don't see how they can get back up as they have all been eliminated from post season. This team has to be mentally tired and now they have to face David Price who in 409 AB against the Yankees hitters has posted a .690 OPS which is quite good when you consider the amount of HR the Yankees hit, but the active line up has done significantly less against Price. Price also is only allowing 33% fly balls and 8.8% HR/FB. Which is good compared with Phil Hughes 46.6% and 11.3% HR/FB ratio.

Hughes is a must fade at Yankee Stadium and he has poor numbers vs. the Rays in 161 AB they have a .879 OPS. Hughes has an ERA over 6 at home and post AS break. Joe Girardi who I think is one of the best managers in the majors has worn his bullpen out by going to them too early over the last month. This bullpen is not up to the task to take over for Hughes in the 4th or 5th inning and I don't see Price giving up the runs tonight to the flat Yankees.

Rays -108 4.5* MLB POD Kuroda on 4 days rest is an instant fade here as I've been tracking it all season. Kuroda has not been good in the second half unless he's been fully rested and even then he's been a shadow of his dominant self from the first half where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Since the All Star game he has a 3.97 ERA. He has an ERA under 2 at home, but on 4 days rest it's singificantly higher and in 4 career starts vs. the Rays he posts a 7.22 ERA with all 4 being non quality. Kuroda has only had 7 total starts where he's given up 4 or more ER and 5 of those 7 came on 4 days rest. He's had 4 starts all year where he did not pitch 6 full innings and all 4 of those came on 4 days rest. I don't see him going deep into this game and the Yankees bullpen has struggled of late posting a 5.16 ERA. Pretty much everyone has been struggling except Mariano Rivera. I also thinks it helps the Rays that the Yankees just came off an emotional loss on Sunday on Mariano day and they are pretty much out of this race and the Rays would like to officially end it here tonight. Matt Moore menawhile has not pitched well of late either but he's at least backed by a bullpen getting outs. Moore also has pitched extremely well on the road posting a 2.76 ERA over 14 starts this year. He's held the Yankee hitters in check over 160 AB they have a .250 average and a .689 OPS. The Rays have a .325 average and a 1.002 OPS in 117 AB vs. Kuroda.

[b]Marlins -110 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
Roy Halladay is still getting credit which is shocking considering he posts a 6.47 ERA at night and an 8.55 ERA on the road overall it's been a disaster this year for Halladay and the Phillies who just finished up their homestand on Sunday before flying to Miami for what will more likely be a mini vacation this time of year. The Marlins got plenty of people in the line up that are trying to impress the franchise for playing time this year and next season. They also put out one of their up and coming starters in Nathan Eovaldi who averages 96+mph on his fast ball and has a nasty slider to go with it. Eovaldi has had a qaulity start in 75% of his outings this year and faces a Phillies team that is hitting .247 with 3.25 runs per 9 on the road. The Marlins have the advantage on the mound especially since the Phillies are ranked 23rd and 19th in pitch value vs. fast ball and slider. Marlins also have the advantage in their bullpen and motivation to get the win. Phillies are also 7-19 in their last 26 as a road dog and have been a poor road team all year long.

[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have done nothing but won their first two games on the road and we are still getting value with them, but after this win on Sunday we will no longer get value on the Dolphins. The media really does not talk about them, because QB Ryan Tannehill has not put up numbers like Wilson, RGII or Luck so we have been cashing Dolphins tickets under the radar since last season.

For on this Dolphins defense is good. They were #1 in the red zone last year allowing 42% TD conversions 38% when they were home and they are back at it this year spending their first overall pick on a pass rusher. This defense was also ranked 4th in third down defense and looks to be even better this year. The Falcons obviously are banged up right now on offense with Stephen Jackson out and their two star receivers questionable. I expect both White and Jones to play, but this offensive line has struggled on the road in recent years. I think Miami can keep this Falcons team between 17-24 points much like the Saints did.

Meanwhile the Dolphins offense is vastly improved with Lamar Miller showing a little life last week, but more importantly Ryan Tannehill had 319 yards and is very quietly becoming one of the better QB's in the league. We also saw Mike Wallace show why the Dolphins spent so much money as he put up 9 receptions and 115 yards against the Browns secondary that has been very good in recent years. They also have a tough match up in FB/TE Charles Clay who caught 5 passes for 109 yards last week. The Dolphins are third right now in red zone TD% showing balance and the Falcons has surrendered 350 passing yards in both of their games this year. Expect another big win by this Dolphins group and some actual hype to follow from the media.

[b]KC/TX U7 3.3* MLB POD[/b]
Both Texas and the Royals are fighting for the Wild Card and there is no room for mistakes. Alexi Ogando takes the ball for the Rangers which usually means they have a good shot at winning. Ogando has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in his career and he's had great success against the Royals holding Gordon and Butler for 1-10 each. Collectively the Royals have just a .179 average and a .390 OPS against Ogando. The Rangers are also backed by the AL's second best bullpen and over all of their relievers L3 appearnces they have a 2.01 ERA combined.

The Royals have the leagues best bullpen so once these solid starting pitchers leave the game our total is in good hands. James Shields takes the mound and he's been really solid against hte Rangers whose offense continues to struggle. Shields has an ERA under 3 in his career against the Rangers and has held them to a .659 OPS in 280 AB. Shields has been excellent with the exception of a start vs. the Tigers. Both pitching staffs have pitched well during the day the Royals ranked 3rd, and the Rangers ranked 7th. The under is also 45-22-5 in the Rangers last 72 vs. a RH starter, 14-5 in their last 19 road games with Ogando on the mound.

Cardinals -137 5.5* MLB POD Cardinals are in relentless pursuit of the NL East title after a 15 inning loss on Thursday they come back with a 7-6 win on Friday and I look for them to continue that here on Saturday against a Brewers team that is not good enough to keep up with the Cardinals. The match up clearly favors the Cardinals with Yovani Gallardo on the mount as every Cardinals hitter has a .300 average except Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina who actually combine for 5 HR in around 60 AB while posting a 1.022 and .991 OPS. The Cardinals have dominated RHP all year long at home or on the road with over 5 runs per 9 while the Brewers have struggled scoring just 3.75. Cardinals have 170 combined at bats with a .306 average and a .951 OPS with 12 HR against Gallardo who is on extra rest. The fact that Gallardo is on 5 days rest is giving us value because he has a very good record when he's on 5 ore more days rest, but he's faced the Cardinals twice this year both on 5 days rest and gave up 9 ER in just 11.1 IP. He's got a 9.50 ERA and has lost 8 of his last 9 vs. the Cardinals and posts a 5.20 ERA at home on 5 or more days rest. Lance LYnn comes into this start and he's 23-9 in his last 32 vs. NL Central opponents. That tells me that the Cardinals are just one step ahead of their division and have a great game plan and scouting report. I would expect nothing less from Mike Matheny who called a good game when he was a catcher all those years. Gallardo posts a 2.93 ERA in his 5 starts vs. the Brewers who did put up 6 runs last night but 5 of the 6 came from Aramis Ramirez who is 2-16 against Lynn. The bullpens on the season are a wash but the Cardinals have an advantage of late posting a 3.10 ERA in their last 3 combined for available pitchers while the Brewers post a 4.24 ERA. You can't convince all these Brewers players that this game means anything. It's not like they can knock the Cardinals out of the playoffs they are already going.

Michigan State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; Michigan State +175 1* bonus
Notre Dame won the last two meetings and has Oklahoma up next while Michigan State has a bye. Michigan State has line value here because despite being 3-0 everyone is saying they haven't played anyone and they have struggled at times. Which is true they opened up the year against Western Mich, South Florida and Youngstown State. However, they had weather issues against Western Mich that stopped their offense from moving the ball and they also played the first 2 games like an NFL pre season allowing the position battles to continue into those games which can create a lot of sloppy play and guys looking over their shoulder, but against Youngstown State we saw the offense start to click as Mike Dantonio named his starting QB in Connor Cook with a ton of confidence.

Connor Cook is a confidenct young QB that is often described as fearless which is a good thing to have going on the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense has not played well and their defensive line is not getting the pass rush they were supposed to be getting. Michigan State has recruited some speedier players to play on the perimeter especially in the running game and those are the type of players that have plagued Notre Dame to start this season. Cook was 15-22 for 202 yards and 4TD's against Youngstown before being rested and has plenty of confidence going into this game against a Notre Dame team that is struggling to prevent TD's in the red zone allowing 72% TD percentage this should be a game Michigan State wins, because their defense is that good.

Okay, they have not played anyone, but there is no way a struggling Notre Dame running game is going to get going against Michigan State who is just elite against the run and returns 3 senior linebackers including Max Bullough and Denicos Allen. The Irish are ranked 92nd in running the ball so far this season which means they are going to lean heavily on Tommy Rees who is 15-5 as a starter and that's where I'm confident the Spartans will come out on top.
Rees is 11-0 against teams that have finished their season with 6 or more losses, but against teams with 5 or less losses he's just 4-5 with 13 TD and 12 INT's. Those stats continue into this season and it's clear he can beat the bad teams, but not the good ones. Michigan State has arguably the best defense of Dantonio era. He's got 3 upper classmen in the secondary. I mentioned the experience at linebacker and finally they have a guy that can rush the passer which has been missing from Spartan defenses in the past. Shilique Calhoun is a hell of an athlete and he will lead the pass rush along with Denicos Allen from the linebacking spot which will create turnovers from Tommy Rees. The Spartans so far this year have allowed 34.6% completion percentage and 15.5% third down conversions and should not be phased by coming to Notre Dame because they have been here plenty of times before. Rees started the season facing the 75th, 76th and 113th ranked pass defenses and now he faces Michigan State that was 7th last year and 6th this year. Michigan State was also 3rd in opponent QB rating last year and is 1st this year. The real difference is sack % they were 87th last year and so far they are ranked 13th.

[b]Boise State +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown[/b]
Fresno State should be rusty in this game after getting their game postponed last week due to flooding in Colorado. The week before they played against Cal Poly and they opened in a barn burner against Rutgers. I don't see why all of a sudden this team should be favored against Boise State. Fresno State's defense has had a hard time getting off the field already this season allowing 6.09 yards per carry to Rutgers and allowing 172 rushing yards to Cal Poly. Boise comes in with a solid rushing game behind Jay Ajayi, but more importantly the Boise State offense is perfectly balanced with a veteran QB and a veteran solid group of receivers led by QB Joe Southwick and WR Matt Miller. Boise is running the ball 51% of the time and having plenty of success as Ajayi ran for 4TD's a week again against Air Force. Joe Southwick added an impressive 27-29 performance throwing for 287 yards and he's super accurate leading back to last year where he finished the year completing 70% of his passes over the final 4 games. Anyway you look at it he's a better QB than Rutgers Gary Nova who had 5 TD and 348 yards against Fresno State in week 1. Rutgers offense was ranked 106th last year in total yards and shredded the Fresno defense. Boise has the balanced attack to keep them on their toes and should be able to move the ball and score.

On the flip side Fresno is led by a one dimensional game and a very good QB in Derek Carr. However, they have yet to have a 100 yard rusher and Derek Carr has not played well against Boise in his career. We still don't know much about this team and I think this spread is very much inflated due to the fact that they put up 50+ points on a Rutgers defense that was excellent last year, but Rutgers defense was gutted only returning 3 starters and Boise is only going to get better on this side of the ball. Sure Washington put up big numbers, but playing at Washington (who had revenge from their bowl loss against Boise) is a different story than playing at Fresno where Boise has had a ton of success. The Boise secondary has had an interception in every game and I think that will be a key difference in this game. The fact that Fresno is also one dimensional will allow Boise to make some third down and red zone stops. I'll take the road team here tonight because Fresno has not done anything to impress me and I think Boise has enough on offense to win this game.

Royals -128 4* MLB POD Despite taking 2 of three from the Rays the Rangers have put themselves in an interesting position. They have been so bad down the stretch that I wouldn't be shocked if they get swept here. I don't think they are playing better I think the Rays were just playing worse and they got to face a team with a poor bullpen something that won't happen in this series. The Royals bullpen has been outstanding and should be able to keep themselves in all three games and win if they have the lead as they have a 2.25 ERA in their last 10 games alone. The Starters - Martin Perez makes his 2nd start on 4 days rest for just the second time this year. Perez only went 5 innings the last time he did it giving up 5 ER. He's got a 4.04 ERA on the road and his last two starts he's allowed 16 hits in 11.1 innings showing signs of his age. Perez may get through the line up the first time but I expect the Royals who know they need this game being 3 games out to make the necessary adjustments the second time through. The Royals meanwhile send Ervin Santana to the mound who has been terrific this season. He's got a 3.42 ERA at home and a 2.96 ERA at night. We are getting great value here because Santana has struggled vs. the Rangers in the past, but a more detailed look and you realize it was against the old Rangers team and on the road. His biggest issue was the long ball, but he comes into this game on 5 days rest where he has never allowed more than 1 HR in a start, over 12 starts this season. In fact he's only allowed 5 total home runs and he's had a quality start in every start on 5 days rest posting a 2.24 ERA overall and 1.95 at home. The one guy in the line up that has truly hit Santana hard is Kinsler who leads off and is not the same hitter that can carry an offense. Kinsler is also hitting just .267 over the last 7 days and .263 on the road this year. I expect the Royals to win tonight and continue to make the AL Wild card an interesting race.

Chiefs +3.5 -115 4.5* NFL POD The Eagles have not proven anything yet and it looks more and more like this offense can be good against the bad defenses but what will they do against good defenses like the Chiefs? The Chiefs shutout the Jaguars and the Cowboys (a prolific offense) had a tough time moving the ball on them. Andy Reid should also be fully motivated in this game against his ex team and he knows more about most of these players than Chip Kelly. The Chiefs offense really has not been explosive yet but they are starting to find their way and getting to face the Eagles defense that has struggled already (we saw it vs. the Chargers and in the 2nd half against the Redskins) should allow for some points to be scored. I'll gladly take the more experienced coach and better defense in this spot even if they are on the road. The Eagles offense when it scores scores to fast and it really hurts their defense. When the offense fails and we have seen some of the defenses catch up throughout a game well then the defense is also put in the same position. Alex Smith has done nothing but when as a starting QB in recent seasons and he'll continue to play with a chip on his shoulders and avoid the turnovers while Michael Vick will turn it over a few times tonight.

[b]NC St +14.5 Bovada 3.3* play[/b]
NC State has defeated a top 10 team the last two years on their home field and now they get to do it again at home on ESPN with millions watching. How can they do it? Well they have one of the ACC's deepest defensive lines that should stay fresh this entire game and pay dividends in covering this spread. They are led by defensive end Art Norman who has been a handful for any defense. Clemson's last real game was on 8/31 same as NC State, but NC State has been preparing for this game all summer and I like what Dave Doereen has been saying this week. He's watched all of Clemson's games from last year and this year and I think he's smart enough to put together a plan that will allow them to compete. Doereen came over from Northern Illinois where he was 22-6 as the head coach and never lost a home game.

I also think we get some line value on this line with roughly 70% of the public betting on Clemson based on their Georgia win where they did allow 222 yards on their home field. I think NC State can find a lot of success running the ball with their deep group of running backs. Part of the high public play is due to the fact that NC State before the bye week nearly lost to Richmond, but it was clear they were not showing anything and that they were preparing for this game. They also had 4 turnovers inside the red zone that definitely did not show how they played. Matt Canada is a smart offensive coordinator that has an extra week and he'll mix tempo and no huddle to avoid Clemson subbing players. Canada was responsible for leading the Wisconsin offense last year after three QB changes so he knows a thing or two about game plans. NC State is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home vs. a winning road team.

Cardinals -163 4* MLB POD The Cardinals are in a dog fight right now for the division with the Reds and Pirates, but this team has been here before. With a couple of tough series on the horizon I believe they get it done here this afternoon where they are 30-15 in day games this year. The Rockies send Roy Oswalt to the mound who has been horrible and the veteran leadership of the Cardinals have had success against him. Beltran, Molina, Holliday are a combined 25-77 for a .325 average and there are plenty of other left handed bats in this line up to do damage against Oswalt who has gotten killed allowing a .997 OPS vs. LHB and has a 29.3% line drive percentage on the season. He's relied on getting some swings outside the zone to get by but the Cardinals are not the agressive type and should be able to score a ton of runs on Oswalt. On the flip side MIchael Wacha has been great allowing just 14.5% line drives on the year and a 2.84 tERA. The Cards are 17-6 in the last 23 meetings as well as 38-14 in their last 52 road games as a favorite -151-200. While the Rockies are 19-41 in their last 60 games as an underdog. Pay the juice and take the Cardinals.

Yankees +100 4* MLB POD
Joe Giradi really does not get enough credit for what he's done with this team and he's doing it again. Starting Phil Hughes on the road instead of putting him out there at home where he's been just awful. Phil Hughes is also getting the hook early in games because Giradi knows he struggles the third time through an order. I think Hughes throws another gem in short as he is facing a Blue Jays team that just placed Encarnacion on the DL and is already without Cabrera and Bautista which significantly weakens the pop int he line up for the Blue Jays. Hughes should get out of his own way and won't allow a ton of HR's that have hurt him more than anything and give the Yankees a great shot to win.

Yankees offense has struggled over their 4 game losing streak, but they had to face 4 really good pitchers in the trio from Boston and then R.A. Dickey. Now getting to face J.A. Happ will certainly help this team that has hit him hard. Happ's three starts this season against the Yankees he's allowed 12 ER in 16 innings while allowing 27 base runners. Happ has walked nearly 5 guys per 9 and the Yankees typically are a patient group that won't panic and will work themselves into hitting accounts which is something they can do tonight against Happ. Yankees are 35-17 in their last 52 meetings with the Blue Jays and should work themselves back into contention with winning the final games of this series.

Nationals -134 4* MLB POD The Nationals are climbing back into the Wild Card race and nobody ever expected it. They are red hot and won their day game here today int he bottom of the 9th inning in walk off fashion. That should carry into tonight as this teams know they have to keep on winning. We've seen this in the past a team gets on a run at the end of the season and it seems like there is nothing stopping them and Freddy Garcia certainly is not going to be what does. Garcia is a washed up 37 year old who has just two pitches and both are below average. Garcia has a 7.15 tERA on the season of 66 IP with two teams and he's really just filling in for the Braves here as they look to stay fresh for their post season run. Tanner Roark on the other hand has pitched extremely well since being called up and the Braves have seen him in relief where he has allowed 2 hits to 16 batters. Roark in AAA had great control and did not allow home runs which is something the Braves survive on. Roark has yet to give up a HR in the big leagues over 34.2 IP and he's got great control and maturity. Braves likely will rest some guys in game 2 as they have already made the playoffs meanwhile the Nationals are all hands on deck and should take this one while we get a decent price at -134 it's worth a play of the day.

Cardinals -155 4* MLB POD
The Cardinals are still in a fight right now with the Pirates for the division so every game matters here as they face off against the Rockies after they busted out for 19 hits on Sunday. I think the Cardinals bats stay hot as they put 5 left handed batters in the line up to face the RHP Collin McHugh. McHugh has been awful in 6 career starts posting an 8.64 ERA. He has 3+ BB/9 2+HR/9 and less then 6K/9 over 33 innings in the majors. Lefties this season have a 1.318 OPS against him and as I mentioned he'll face 5 of them. The Cardinals actually faced McHugh before so they have a bit of experience against him. I don't anticipate him going deep into this game which means the Rockies will have to turn to their bullpen which has failed them many times this season including over their last 10 games where they have a 7.43 ERA.

The Cardinals on the other hand have pitched well with a 2.83 BP ERA in road games while they have also hit RHP hard on the road with more than 5 runs per 9. Lance Lynn will also take the mound and has decent numbers against the Rockies in two starts, but also comes into this game not having to face Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gonzalez which is huge because they are 4-9 against him. Troy Tulowitski is in the line up but he struggles against pitchers who have good command and throw hard and that's what Lynn possesses with an average fastball of over 92mph on the season. I could be wrong and Lynn could give up 5 ER, but even then I'm confident the Cardinals should be able to put up more against the Rockies bullpen so that's why I'm taking them as they will manage this like a playoff game. Lynn is also 24-11 in his last 35 vs. a losing team.

[b]Giants +4.5 4.4* play[/b]
I see tremendous value on the Giants here based on what happened last week. Both teams played with the National spot light and came up with different results. Broncos dazzled with Peyton Manning tossing 7 TD's and scoring 49 points while the Giants embarrassed themselves with 6 turnovers. The Giants still only lost by 5 points being -5 in the turnover department. There is definitely a market over reaction in this spot so I'll take the extra points with the Gmen.

If you watched the Broncos game the Ravens had a 17-14 lead in the third quarter and Ravens head coach did not challenge a clear drop which resulted in a first down and later a TD that changed the entire game. I was not overly impressed by the Broncos the seemed ordinary on both sides of the ball and their offensive line is really shaky and could be in for a long day against the Giants front.

Meanwhile the Giants offensive line looked sharp and Eli Manning was able to move the ball against the Cowboys. The Broncos did not resign their best defensive linemen and Von Miller is out on suspension so Eli should get a lot of time and the secondary of the Broncos is not very good either. I'll take the points here with the Giants and hope they have corrected their turnover issues.

5.5** NFL POD Guaranteed 9% ROI on NFL POD's in Career TB Bucs +3.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Saints come off a game that was their big division game to open the year, almost a must win and now they have a let down on the road against the Bucs. The Saints have not played well on the road and it was an emotional win in week 1 with Sean Payton returning. The Bucs were #1 against the run and they have obviously upgraded their secondary. I don't think Tampa played as bad as it seemed against the Jets in the loss they just got unlucky and this team should be hungry to rebound.

Meanwhile the Saints were 29th in sack % and they were lucky to play the Falcons who have arguably the worst offensive line in the game. They also were last in QB rating in road games allowing 109 QB rating and were last in rushing ypc against and allowed 6.3 ypc last week. Look for Doug Martin to have a big game and I also think Vincent Jackson should be able to have a big game especially since Josh Freeman should have plenty of time as the Saints are without two defensive tackles and are also banged up at linebacker and in the secondary. The Saints are a much fade on the road but they get a big number on the road because the public will gladly back them after the Bucs lost to the Jets last week and looked bad doing so.. I see the Bucs rebounding here in a big home win.

[b]Phillies +137 3* MLB POD[/b]
I love this spot for the Phillies as Gio Gonzalez has come off a complete game 1 hit shutout, but carried a no hitter late into the game. I think Gonzalez has an off game here as many pitchers do after a great start like that. I think it's even more possible since it happened late in the season and we've seen that Gonzalez is a little worn out considering you look at his LD% over last 3 starts which has been above 40% in 2 of his last three starts. He's just getting lucky because many of the line drives have been going right at his defense. He has had 3 poor starts in his last 8 and I think he's due here. On the flip side Cole Hamels has been one of the best starters all year, and really turned things up in the second half posting a 2.38 ERA over his last 10 starts since the All Star break. Hamels has much better raw stats than Gonzalez and he's on an extra day of rest here and going up against a line up that has been no more successful than the Phillies against LHP.

Tigers -160 4* MLB POD Justin Verlander has pitched poorly or not up to his standards all season, but now I see him turning the corner and he comes into this game on 5 days rest with plenty to pitch for as the Tigers are 3 games back of the Red Sox for home field advantage and they are only 7 up in their division. Verlander has dominated the Royals at home and struggled on the road and his last start just happened to be in Kansas City and he struggled. His last 4 home starts have all been over 7 innings and he's posted a 2.03 ERA in those games. In his career he's got a 2.80 and 15-5 record vs. the Royals over 28 career starts. The Royals who come into this game are 18-40 following an off day and are scoring more than 2 runs less per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. LHP which is 5.87 at home. Tigers will face Bruce Chen whose xFIP is close to 5, but his ERA is under 3 so I know I'm getting value in this game even with a big name like Verlander on the mound. MIguel Cabrera has been in a slump mainly due to some nagging injuries but he's got 5 HR and a .405 average vs. Chen who has struggled pitching in Detroit. Chen's last 3 here he's given ups 27 hits in 15.1 IP and 14 ER. Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez and Andy Dirks all have averages over .300 with a lot of success.

[b]Yankees +150 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Yankees are within 1 game of the Rays for the second wild card spot just like that and they've returned to their old ways with 3 HR in back to back games against the Orioles. I like their chances a gain here tonight as I really like what Joe Girardi did with the line up having Alex Rodriguez in the #2 spot ahead of Soriano and Cano. Phil Hughes is also very under rated on the road and is fresh for this game. He's pitched well in Baltimore with a 3.06 ERA from 2010-2012 along with a good start and a bad start this year.

Wei-Yen Chen has a 5.29 ERA in 6 starts against the Yankees and the Yankees are scoring 5.46 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games alone while the Orioles are stuck at just 3.42 vs. RHP. Yankees average is also 24 points higher. Yankees bullpen has struggled, but I think Hughes can give them 7 innings tonight of 3 or less ER and I think it will be enough to get a win.

TCU -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
TCU had a really challenging opening week against LSU, but they held their own considering they shuffeled between two QB's, but now Pachal's out againa and it's Trevor Boykin's job again which I like it makes this offense more dynamic with ability to run (585 rushing yards last year). Boykin had a great game vs. Tech last year 330+ yards passing 4 passing TD's. However TCU turned the ball over 3 times, but still hung in there but only to lose 56-53 in 3 OT's. Revenge is sweet and I think Garry Patterson did a terrif job last year with a young inexperienced roster that had a lack of depth. The team actually was 5-1 on the road beat two ranked teams in their own building. That shows just how good this team can be moving forward now that they return 16 starters. Wayman James is back again who has averaged 7.6 ypc since 2011 and pairing him with Boykin is a scary thought. I think TCU can run wild against Tech tonight.

Meanwhile Texas Tech has had a ton of success with walk on freshmen Baker Mayfield, but that was against SMU and SF Austin. Now they face TCU and Gary Patterson who obviously will have a better game plan than last year. Mayfield has had a daylight behind a new offensive line in his first two games, but now he'll play a defensive line that features Devonte Fields who was the Big 12 defensive player of the year. TCU also returns all 5 of their guys in the secondary including Jason Vervett. I expect them to play man and agressive against Mayfield who won't have time to get to his third progression. This should result in turnovers and sweet revenge in Texas Tech's backyard.

Rangers -127 4* MLB POD Liriano has regressed this season and has had 4 really poor starts in his last 7 starts. He also posts 4.36 ERA on the road where he's given up 27.6 % LD's which is extremely high considering he's under 20% at home. Add that factor against a good hitting team in a hitters ball park and I think Liriano will be in trouble tonight. Liriano has also not been good on extra rest this season. In 3 road starts on extra rest he's allowed 15 ER in just 14.2 IP. He's also backed by a bullpen that has been pitching worse than their season averages combining for a 5.40 ERA in their last 3 appearances each. That's usually an advantage on the mound but against the Rangers on the road it's not. The Rangers bullpen has a 2.66 ERA at home this year and a 3.04 in their last 3 combined. They also send Martin Perez out there who has a 2.20 ERA at home and a 2.48 ERA on extra rest this year. The Pirates have never faced this lefty so it should take them a few innings to come up with at least a strategy for how they are going to get on base and it may be too late by then. Pittsburgh won game 1 1-0, but they won't win game 2. The Rangers are 16-6 in their last 22 with Kellogg behind the plate and the Pirates are 18-53 in their last 71 inter league road games.

Chargers +4.5 5.5* NFL POD
The biggest public play of the week is on the Texans on Monday night football game 2 which will include tons of parlays and teasers etc. Vegas has the public right where they want them, but I'm not falling for it even though backing the Chargers will take a lot of convincing. I think the Chargers did fix a lot of their issues including drafting an offensive linement in the first round and signing 3 more as free agents to help protect Phillip Rivers. This will be the first step and on national tv I think the Chargers will be up to make a statement in the last game of week 1. I'm not saying they will win and they may lose in blow out fashion, but I just can't see laying the road chalk with a Texans team that everyone is picking to get to the AFC Championship game.

The Texans have been a team that really does not blow other teams out in the past and although they were a good road team last year their wins on the road were not by much. Chargers weakness on defense comes in the secondary, but they have a strong pass rush and front 7 that can stop the rush ranking 5th a year ago. Chargers have plenty of talent at WR despite injuries as they still have a healthy Antonio Gates, Vincent Brown, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and newly drafted Cal star Keenan Allen. Phillip Rivers is a firey competitor that has been stuck in a stale Norv Turner run offense for years. I think the off season changes have lit the fire again and he would love nothing better than to upset the Texans as a heavy home dog. I really like the coaching changes on the Chargers side with Mike McCoy as the head man and the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt. These guys have been scheming and coming up with a game plan for months against the Texans. The Texans have not shined on Monday night and I believe they struggle again here as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

[b]Dodgers -156 4* MLB POD[/b]
Playing with the public on this one. It just seems like the Diamondbacks are done right now 9 games back of the wild card and they have scored just 24 runs in their last 11 games averaging just 2.26 vs. RHP compared with the Dodgers who are averaging 5.02. Randall Delgado is a control pitcher, but now he's on 4 days rest on the road against the Dodgers who got 11 hits off him in 6 innings the first time. I think the Dodgers are a bit desparate here too after losing 4 straight they come back home for a much needed victory as they now trail the Braves by 2 games for home field.

Ricky Nolasco goes on 5 days rest and he's been much better since coming over to the Dodgers posting a 2.27 ERA in 11 starts. He's dominated the Diamondbacks this year allowing just 2 ER in 15 innings and that will continue here at home as the Dodgers are 40-11 in their last 51 vs. RH starter and the Diamondbacks are 7-15 in their last 22 as a dog - +150.

[b]Panthers +3 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
All the hype has been on the Seahawks this entire off season and many are picking them to actually win the Super Bowl, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have been listening and I think they come up with a big win here today. The Panthers closed 2012 with 4 consecutive wins and were -1 favorites in last years match up. I don't see any drastic changes that would move this line 4 points other then the fact that the public loves the Seahawks and so do the media. People forget the Seahawks are more of a home team. They went 3-5 on the road last year and their wins were by 6 and 4 and of course the blow out of a disinterested Bills team. I expect Cam Newton to have a huge game as he really needs to step up this year.

Pirates +155 3* MLB POD
The Cardinals won last night and are now just a 1/2 game back and now the Pirates look to keep a lead in division and they've owned Adam Wainwright of late who has struggled lately as well. Wainwright in his last 5 starts vs. the Pirates has allowed 22 ER in 33 innings. The Cardinals meanwhile go up against Jeff Locke who took a start off an should be fresh for this game. The Cardinals have struggled vs. LHP all season long scoring just 3.34 runs per 9 at home and nearly 1.5 less overall. I just think there is a ton of value here with the Pirates in a game that's going to be like a playoff game.

South Carolina +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I honestly think everything is going right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks right now as they not only get a couple of extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday but they get Georgia who comes off a physical and emotional loss where they lost to Clemson and lost their best receiver in Malcolm Mitchell which now takes away 40% of Aaron Murray's targets last year when you add in they lost Tavarres King. South Carolina actually beat Clemson at the end of last year 27-17 and South Carolina is actually 5-0 ATS the last 3 years when they have had extra time to prepare in the regular season.

What else is going right? The media has seriously pumped up Jadeveon Clowney after all but elminating him from the Heisman discussion and ripping him for taking plays off. I see this as an opportunity for Clowney to have a big impact on the game and the fact that Murray has one less target that he's used to throwing to should allow South Carolina to be just that much more aggressive. What was also lost in their win against UNC was Bruce Ellington being limited and TE Buster Anderson returning for this game to give Connor Shaw a target over the middle to go along with the speed he has on the outside. The speed is something South Carolina is not used to having but with Shaq Rolland and Dariene Byrd this receiving corps is better than what Georgia is used to seeing. That's a major issue because a defense returning just 3 defensive starters that allowed the Gamecocks to run for 230 yards a year ago will now have to think twice about stacking the box.

In the running game Mike Davis also has more home run speed than Marcus Lattimore had and Brandon Wilds forms a nice punch as the more physical runner along with Shaw as a runner too. I don't think Georgia's defense is ready for this and South Carolina's offensive line is just too big and physical averaging 322 lbs they will wear down on Georgia's front once again on route to victory as Steve Spurrier seems to own Richt going 3-0 int he last 3. Overall Spurrier is 15-5 vs. Georgia who allowed 6 200 yards rushing games last year. Georgia has some nice RB's in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, but South Carolina got smaller and more speedy in their line backing corps and I think they should be able to handle it even on the road to get the win.

[b]Cardinals +100 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
This is going to be like a playoff atmosphere and the Cardinals can not afford to lose this and fall 3 games back in the loss column. Sending Joe Kelly to the mound on 5 day rest should help as he has a 1.86 ERA with 5 days rest this season and he's got a 1.72 ERA in 8 starts after the All Star game. He's also pitched less than 100 IP because he's come out of the bullpen at times and should be a lot fresher than A.J. Burnett.

Burnett has been worse on the road and is 3-6 in his career at St. Louis, but in the last 3 starts here he's allowed 19 ER in 13 innings with 30 BR. Beltran Carpenter and Descalso have good numbers against him and despite Craig sitting out (he struggled against Burnett anyway) I think we can expect some runs here. Kelly has had two excellent starts vs. the Pirates allowing just 1 ER in 12 IP and the Cardinals bullpen has really hit its stried posting a 1.93 ERA over its last 10 games. Cards are 38-14 in their last 52 hoem games vs. a RH starter and 47-23 in their last 70 following a loss. They get this game and make game 2 all the more interesting.

Yankees -107 4* MLB POD The Red Sox took games against the Tigers to get a lead on the AL home field advantage, but now they have a big series with the Yankees who are desperate and playing well of late winning 15 of their last 18 home games. Meanwhile the Red Sox are just 7-15 in their last 22 on the road against home teams with a winning % greater than .600. Jake Peavy is on the mound for the Sox and he's only on 4 days rest where he has a 5.04 ERA this year and he's also on the road where he has an ERA over 5 this year. This is not a great ballpark for Peavy to pitch in as he's an extreme fly ball pitcher similar to Phil Hughes, but with more control over his pitches. Peavy's only start here he gave up 3 HR and 5 guys in the projected line up have HR's against him. Ivan Nova on the other hand continues to pitch and excel at Yankee Stadium posting a 2.49 ERA here and has great numbers this year on 4 days rest. He's really been the savior of this team down the stretch and I expect it to continue against the Red Sox tonight who had struggled to score runs in back to back games before putting up 20 last night. I think the odds are exaggerated because of the 20 runs and the Yankees should get a much needed win.

[b]Rockies -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Rockies look like they may have a healthy line up tonight with Carlos Gonzalez getting in the game last night and Dexter Fowler rejoining the line up yesterday, but it's not like they need it against Edinson Volquez. The Rockies will score runs her as he has a 12.46 ERA in his last 6 starts vs. the Rockies and Dodgers bullpen has a 5.03 ERA in their last 3 appearances each combined so I"m expecting Volquez to struggle a bit int his spot especially since Gonzalez is 10-19 against him and the Rockies collectively have a 1.078 OPS in 150 AB. Volquez has a career 8.39 ERA at Coors over 7 starts and he walks nearly 5 guys per 9 which won't get you out of the rocky mountains alive. Meanwhile Jorge De La Rosa has been Mr. consistent especially at home.

De La Rosa posts a 2.74 ERA at home and I think we are getting him at a cheap price here. He's struggled vs. the Dodgers in certain games but has always pitched better at home and Don Mattingly has been resting hitters. I expect he'll get a lighter line up again tonight and I think he'll have a quality start and get the win.

Tigers +104 3.5* MLB POD Winner of this game will have a small lead towards home field advantage so it is a very important game so much that Miguel Cabrera is in the line up and he's got monster numbers against Jon Lester as he's 10-16 off the south paw. In fact so does Hunter, Martinez, and Penal who are a combined 22-43. You did not misread that stat. Lester is also coming into this game posting great numbers over his last 5 starts so we are getting plenty of value but a closer look and he's faced teams ranked 16th, 17th, 23rd, 25th, and 20th in OPS vs. LHP. The Tigers are #1 in OPS vs. LHP and Lester has a 5.26 ERA in 6 career starts against them. Lester also comes into this game making his 4th start on 4 days rest and posts 3.72 ERA at home and a 4.45 ERA Max Scherzer has been handed gifts all season with some great run support there is no denying that, but looking at his raw stats he just is better than Jon Lester and he posts a 2.14 ERA on the road where the Tigers are 13-0 in his starts. His 9.87 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9 back up his record and the Red Sox are hitting just .237 with 3.08 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 compared to the Tigers 6.14 vs. LHP. Scherzer has struggled vs. David Ortiz, but who hasn't? Scherzer can pitch around Ortiz and dominate the rest of the line up especially without Jacoby Ellsbury in the mix who is out of the line up tonight.

Padres -134 3* MLB POD
How can you not fade Barry Zito? He's got an ERA over 9 ont he road and he's faced the Padres and struggled big time especially on the road allowing 17 ER in just 13.1 IP over his last four visits. RHB have a .864 OPS against him and the Padres will bat 8 and 6 combine for a 29-76 (.382 batting average with 5 HR) vs. Zito. Kennedy on the other hand has only really had trouble with Posey and Scutaro as he's held the Giants to .250 average .663 OPS over 216 total at bats. I look for the Padres to take advantage of this pitching match up and get a win against a division opponent.

Yankees -125 4* MLB POD
Yankees always seem to answer the bell when it's rung late in the season. I think getting Derek Jeter back is a huge boost to the team because they needed a leader and now they have Andy Pettitte on the mound who is no stranger to coming up big in big moments. All he's done is post a 0.46 ERA over his last three starts, but more importantly he's given up 4+ ER in just 2 of his last 10 starts. He's pitching well and the Orioles key hitters are lefties and it's the reason they are scoring over a run less per 9 vs. LHP than RHP. They are actually ice cold right now with a .188 average vs. LHP over their last 10 and Pettitte has had success limiting them to a .652 OPS in 206 career AB's. Pettitte also knows how to pitch on short rest during day where he posts a 2.73 ERA in his last 23 day starts Meanwhile Wei-Yen Chen is coming off his worst start of his career just 3.5 days ago.

Chen is an extreme fly ball pitcher and we have seen how that translates at Yankee Stadium. I look for Reynolds and Vernon Wells who are more role players at this point in their career to have a big impact with their bats today. The Yankees have 6 HR in just 86AB vs. Chen who has been dominating against lefties but struggles vs. RHB of which the Yankees have 7 of in the line up. Chen struggled down the stretch last season and we saw signs of it in his last start. Yankees bullpen is also a major advantage right now 1.14 ERA L10 games vs. Baltimore's 5.34 L10 games, but in the end I think it goes back to Chen's inability to keep the ball in the park.

Astros -107 3.5* MLB POD This is great value for the Astros at home where they are scoring 4.63 runs per 9 vs. LHP (facing Saunders today) who they have beat up this season at home. Saunders has a 2.50 WHIP and an ERA over 9 in his two starts in Houston this year. He also has a 7.16 ERA this August and is on just 4 days rest. Dallas Keuchel ont he other hand is on 5 days rest where he's pitched great against good competition. He faces a Mariners team that is 29th in OPS vs. LHP and is scoring 1.56 runs per 9 less vs LHP on the road than the Astros are at home VS. LHP. He also has better overall true value statistics when compared with Joe Saunders as he has a 3.76 xFIP compared with Saunders 4.43. Saunders just 4.86 K/9 is pretty bad and if you are not going to get guys out you better have good control, but he's walking more than 3 guys per 9 innings. This is one of the few times you'll find the Astros as favorites and they are 11-2 in their last 13

LA Lafayette +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
The Rajin Cajuns are the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference behind the best player in the Sun Belt in Terrance Broadway. Broadway combined for 26 total TD's nearly 3,000 passing yards and nearly 1,000 rushing yards. He's a dual threat that almost defeated Florida at the swamp last year. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and Mark Hudspeth is a very under rated head coach. This is an explosive and balanced attack with a nice running back in Alonzo Harris who averaged 5.2 ypc, but also runs with conviction at 6-1 and 220 lbs. Broadway also avoid the sack nicely ranking 18th in fewest sack% but even less on the road which shows maturity. On defense 6 the top 8 linebackers return which will be crucial against Arkansas team that only returns 4 offensive starters.

Arkansas lost a lot of guys and then they hired Brett Bielema who now can show off how good of a coach he is in the best conference It will not be a quick turn around as Arkansas receivers are completely depleted losing 57% of their graduates as well as 3 key injuries in the off season. That means they will lean on the running game because they are also breaking in a new QB and Bielema loves to runt eh ball, but the offensive line is breaking in 3 new offensive linemen. Arkansas should be able to move the ball on the ground, but when they get in the red zone they will struggle. Lafayette has the linebackers to make life difficult and Arkansas with a top 20 offensive line, big running back and top receiver a year go could not finish drives so I'm not sure how they'll do it in their first game without those resources. In the end Arkansas is rebuilding while Lafayette is still playing in the now and would love a big win over an SEC team.

SMU +4.5 3.3* NCAAF POD
SMU only returns 12 starters (6 on each side), but I think this match up favors them as Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense. Hal Mumme takes over as the new offensive coordinator and will run his air raid offense which is very similar to the offense this unit ran a year ago and going up against a Texas Tech secondary that graduated a lot of experience that rarely forced turnovers. Texas Tech also has issues at linebacker size and you can certainly run on them, but more importantly the front 7 was 91st in sack% which means SMU should be able to run their offense without worrying about getting sacked.

Garret Gilbert returns for his senior year and should have a chip on his shoulder. He did not play that well last year and was once a highly touted recruit at Texas, but he's got some weapons on the outside and this unit should be able to move the ball at home against a below average defense on Friday night. Gilbert just can't turn the ball over and facing the Red Raiders it's likely he won't. Texas Tech meanwhile has a new QB and new offensive line and a new head coach. A lot changes and it's a lot to ask to go on the road on a Friday night and win especially when your strength is passing the ball and SMU return all 4 starters from last year including Kenneth Acker and Chris Parks one of the better duos in the nation. They were 20th in opponent completion % despite being 86th in sack %. This unit was also 23rd in takeaways and I think that will be the difference on Friday night.

Royals -111 4* MLB POD
Blue Jays have been inconsistent all year long and after a great series with a division rival I expect them to burry their heads in teh sand. Mark Buehlre has been extremely lucky over the last month and I think it's finally going to come back to hurt him. He flirts with disaster in almost all of his starts, but an 89% strand rate has helped him specifically over the last month. The Royals are hot right now scoring 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games and have hit lefties extremely well on the road scoring 4.62 runs per 9. Billy Butler leads the Royals with a 20-57 mark vs. Buehlre. The Royals are also in a playoff hunt where as the Jays are not and could care less about this game on a Friday night.

On the flip side Ervin Santana has been great posting a 3.27 ERA and a 2.85 at night. He's had 5 of 6 quality starts on the road when he's on 4 days rest and 9 out of his last 10 starts vs. the Jays have been quality where he posts a 2.76 ERA. Two of his last 4 starts at Toronto were complete games. You also have to remember the bullpen in this match up where the Royals have a distinct advantage 2.79 ERA on the road compared to the Jays 4.08 at home while the Royals also post a 1.09 in their last 10games overall.

S. Carolina -11.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If you read my SEC College Football Preview & Odds article you'll know I'm very high on South Carolina. Everyone is raving about Jadeveon Clowney but they forget Connor Shaw missed a lot of time last year and returns. The Gamecocks have not lost a game at home as a double digit favorite since 2004 and I don't anticipate it Thursday night. In fact I see them dominating from start to finish with Shaw playing like he has a chip on his shoulder. He knows he can't take anything for granted with his injury history and he's said several times this off season they can't look past UNC who has a very good QB of their own in Bryan Renner, but the strengths and weaknesses for both teams put South Carolina in a huge advantage.

First of all UNC's defense lacks edge pressure and they are weak at linebacker up the middle leaving them vulnerable up the gut which is the very spot the Gamecocks will look to attack. South Carolina is very strong up front with 4 returning offensive linement, but their weakness is speed rushers which North Carolina does not have this year. UNC actually runs an odd 4-2-5 scheme but they lack the pieces including the BANDIT which is the key position. So what happens is teams like this get pushed and that's what I think will happen on Thursday night. The running game will set up the passing game for Connor Shaw and South Carolina has a lot of speed and athleticism at receiver that should take advantage of UNC's talented secondary because Shaw will have time and he can also create plays with his feet.

UNC comes in with a rebuilt offensive line with 3 new starters. This team also lost their top running back which won't be an issue by season end but I don't see them being able to run against South Carolina who allowed just 2.6 ypc at home. The Gamecocks are vulnerable against the run but we won't know it on Thursday since they are home and facing a team with a new offensive line. Renner will likely turn to the passing game at some point which won't be a good idea with the pass rushing skills South Carolina has with Clowney and senior Chaz Sutton. North Carolina had a terrific season last year offensively which is why they are getting a ton of respect with this line, but they really did not have any tough road games like this. Their up tempo spread attack will have issues against a good pass rush.

Tigers -159 5* MLB POD Doug Fister starts for the Tigers tonight and he's been really consistent throughout the year and he posts a 1.87 ERA against the A's over his last 5 starts. Fister has great control and won't walk many hitters which the A's often rely on to get guys on base and get wins. Oakland's offense scored some runs the last two days but with everyone starting for the Tigers tonight I have to believe they want to avoid any type of sweep at home this late in the season. Dan Straily takes the mound for the A's and he's been awful of late posting a 1.68 WHIP over his last 5 starts he's got a 4.70 ERA and 5.49 ERA on the road and at night. In his 5 road starts on 4days rest (like he is tonight) he has a 6.49 ERA and he faces a Tigers offense that scores over 5.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and is batting .342 vs. RHP over their last 10 games . Oakland's bullpen over that period has a 5.06 ERA and they have not ps well on the road I'm expecting Detroit to win here.

Rangers -126 4* MLB POD The Rangers have been on fire and will face the Mariners who are playing for pride. The Rangers are 20-6 in their last 26 road starts by Derek Holland they are also 42-15 in their last 57 vs. the AL West and in Hollands last 3 starts in Seattle he has a 0.83 ERA. Holland has clearly pitched well on the road this year posting a 2.74 ERA, but he's done even better against the Mariners in his career in 170 total AB they have a .553 combined OPS. They are ranked 29th in OPS vs. LHP and Holland is also on 5 days rest where the Rangers are 24-8 in his last 32. He posts a 2.32 ERA on 5 days rest and has 11 of 13 quality starts on the year. The Rangers bullpen has also been better than the Mariners which posts a 5.25 ERA over their last 10 which is important because Iwakuma has been very good. The problem with Iwakuma though is he's going up against a hot line up and he's pitched worse in the second half with an ERA over 4 while he pitched with an ERA under 3 in the first half. Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre are a combined 14-36 off him and it should be enough to get them some runs to get a win on the road.

Padres -147 4* MLB POD Padres come off a 3-2 loss and I think they will rebound today with their power pitcher Andrew Cashner. Cashner has been terrific posting a 2.38 ERA on 5 days rest and he's been excellent in that situation. Padres meanwhile will face Chris Rusin who has great numbers, but he has a much higher line drive % than Cashner and he only has 5.4 K/9 while walking nearly 3 guys per 9. He's relied on luck with a 80.6% strand rate. The Padres are actually capable of hitting LH starters ast hey are 7th in OPS vs. LHP and the Cubs are just 8-20 in their last 28 vs. RH starter.

Dodgers -113 3.5* MLB POD I really like the Dodgers in this spot after they shut out the Red Sox last night. When the Red Sox are without their best hitter in David Ortiz the entire line up really seems to struggle. He's out again today and they also have to bat a pitcher so in reality they are losing two hitters in this one. They will have to face Ryu who has been great at home posting a 1.78 ERA on the year and he's been solid with quality starts in 9 of his 11 starts on 4 days rest posting a 3.03 ERA overall. Red Sox hit RHP much better than LHP and Ryu should pitch another quality outing here at home. Jon Lester on the other hand comes in with another start on 4 days rest and this is happening on the west coast. Over his last 10 starts on 4 days rest he's been really bad posting a 6.07 ERA and giving up 5 or more ER 6 of the 10 starts. The Dodgers have a ton of confidence and have the advantage at home and the bullpen is also an advantage right now as they have posted a 2.08 ERA in their last 10. Lester also has a 4.11 ERA on the road this year and the Dodgers have the #1 ERA during day games.

Nationals +1013.5* MLB POD I will back the far superior pitcher here in Gonzalez whose 3.96 ERA on the road is very misleading since he gave up 10 ER in Detroit. The Nationals are actually 20-8 in his last 28 road starts and 20-8 in his last on 4 days rest. The Royals are struggling and have quickly gone from contenders to pretenders in a matter of a week. They are scoring just 2.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 and I don't see it getting easier tonight as Gonzalez has been solid during night starts 87.2 IP and a 2.16 ERA. On the flip side Chen has been extremely lucky and posts a 1.96 ERA at home, but his raw stats indicate his overall ERA should be 4.84. Chen is not your classic lefty where LHB struggle against him they actually have a higher OPS and average if you go back his last three seasons. Since coming into the starting role he's struggled to get guys out with a pitch and has gotten lucky by stranding runners. The Nationals have won 9 of their last 13 and look to keep that going here as they have scored 7.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 5 games alone.

Giants -125 3* MLB POD
The Pirates have shown signs of fading a bit, while the Giants offense continues to fail. Giants however do catch a break facing Jeff Locke who is really starting to struggle at this point in the season posting a 2.31 WHIP over his last 5 combined starts. Locke was lucky for most of the to begin with and now his control problems are catching up to him. He's walked 17 guys in his last 5 starts and is walking well over 4 guys per 9. Giants send their ace in Matt Cain to the mound who is on the other hand of luck. Earlier int he year he had nothing but bad luck, but over his last 10 starts he's given up 3 runs or less 9 times and posts a 2.25 ERA over his last 5. Over his last 5 starts vs. the Pirates he has been flat out dominating with a 1.24 ERA going back to 2009. Pirates have a .162 collective average and a .477 OPS in 130 AB. He's got 2 complete game shut outs in that period and I think he's set up well to have another great game.

Orioles -123 4* MLB POD
This is a very desperate Orioles team right now and they send a guy to the mound who has been extremely consistent posting a 3.15 Eat home and a 3.20 ERA during night starts in Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has also pitched well in his career against the Rays in 6 career starts posting a 3.05 ERA. Rays on the other hand are 7-19 in their last 26 as a dog and 5-11 in Jeremy Hellicksons last 16 starts overall.

Hellickson comes into this game posting 5.40 ERA on the road and a 5.57 ERA during night starts. He has struggled big time vs. Chris Davis and Adam Jones and Davis is hot right now 9-20 over the last 7 days. I don't figure for Hellickson to go deep into this game which means they'll likely turn to the bullpen that's ranked 19th in the league. I don't figure him to go deep because this is just the third time in the last two years (1st this year) he's making a start on 4 days rest for a third consecutive game. The results are not good when he's been on 4 days rest posting a 5.67 ERA. He's also got a 5.53 ERA following 100+ pitch efforts so it's clear he just is not the same under these circumstances and having to play the Orioles who are dangerous against RHP is not going to be an easy task as they rank 3rd in OPS. Baltimore is still 35-16 in their last 51 as a home favorite and in my opinion should win this game.

BlueJays +115 3* MLB POD
I like the Jays to bounce back in game 2 here tonight with big win after losing game 1 of this day night double header. It's hard for any team to win two games in one day, but it's even harder when you send Phil Hughes to the mound at home. Hughes has been awful at home posting a 6.03 ERA and that's mainly because he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and the Blue Jays are 2nd in HR vs. RHP so I expect this to be a bad start for Hughes here tonight. On the flip side you have Mark Buehlre making a start on a humid night and he tends to be one of the quickest workers in the game and I just think in game 2 of a double header that he'll have the advantage over the hitters tonight despite some of his struggles vs. the Yankees in the past. BlueJays bullpen has also been great on the road this year posting a 2.38 ERA so if he gets in trouble he has some good back up.

BOS/SF O7 -120 3.5* MLB POD
I think we get a ton of value here with the total as both of these pitchers no longer are the ace of their staffs that time has come and gone. Lester has a 4.48 ERA ont he road this year and the Giants hit lefties better and are coming off scoring 4, 14, 6, and 5 runs in their past 4 games. Lester has a 7.06 ERA over his last 9 starts on 4 days rest and a 5.98 overall on the road. Tim Lincecum has also struggled and now he faces the best offense in the league vs. RHP in a night game where he posts a 4.91 ERA. Both pitchers can give up a huge inning at any time and the bullpens have not been great of late so I'm going with the over here

Redskins -2.5 3.3* play
Going with the skins here as the Steelers are pretty banged up already. I also feel like the fact that their defense is not where it should be will give the Redskins a big edge. Also you have to figure the Steelers who pretty much know who is going to start on both sides will be looking at their depth and trying to make decisions on players for who will start so I'm not expecting a clean game from them. The Redskins however do not and I think as a result we will see a cleaner game from them. Shanahan has a good history of winning pre season games and I'm backing him tonight.

Dodgers -106 3.5* MLB POD
Even though everyone is on the Dodgers I still like them at these odds. First of all they have the #1 Day ERA and their bullpen has been as dominating as their offense. The Phillies are actually 30th in ERA during day games and while Cole Hamels looks like himself again posting a 1.12 ERA over his last three those were mostly against poor hitting teams ranked at the bottom of the league vs. LHP. Hamels also comes into this game in a rare situation. He's off a complete game and he threw 120+ pitches. Hamels has only thrown 120+ pitches 3 times in the last three years. he's on 5 days rest his numbers are not that impressive in that situation this year posting a 4.54 ERA at home. The Dodgers just continue to win and hit and are 24-3 in their last 27 road games and they'll have a good shot at win #25 with Ricky Nolasco on the mound.

Nolasco has good splits here 2.76 ERA in his last 3, 2.99 ERA on the road, and a 2.78 ERA during day starts. He also has a 1.82 ERA in 5 road starts on 5 days rest and once again is backed by a bullpen that has been great. Hamels has pitched well of late, but like I said you have to pay attention to who he was doing it against. The Dodgers are just on fire right now while the Phillies are 2-14 in Hamels last 16 on 5 days rest, and they are 3-18 in their last 21 vs. RH starter. Expect them to get a heavy dose of Nolasco's curve ball because they are ranked 30th in pitch value vs. the curve.

Red Sox -123 3.5* MLB POD
This is an interesting battle between two starting pitchers who have pitched extremely well this season. Hiroki Kuroda has been off the charts and I've backed him many times, but the secret is he's been only that good on 5 days rest. Here he makes a day start on 4 days rest. He's had his issues against the Sox before and Pedroia and Ortiz are a combined 14-30 against him. Kuroda has an ERA under 1.50 on 5 days rest but when he's on 4 days rest he posts a 4.72 ERA on the road over his 6 road starts. He now faces a Sox team that is #1 OPS vs. RHP, #1 OPS at home and #4 OPS during day games and a starting pitcher on 5 days rest.

John Lackey has solid numbers 8+ K/9 and <2BB/9 and he's delivered at home posting a 2.15 ERA and a solid 3.02 ERA during day games. He also has a 2.43 ERA at home on 5 days rest which is very solid and the Sox are 8-3 in his last 11 on 5days rest. Yankees bats have been hot, but I expect the Sox to take game two as their offense has been better and more consistent this year. Yankees bullpen is also performing poorly and I feel they will need it today, but they post a 7.22 ERA over their last 10 overall.

TB Bucs +3 4.4* NFL POD
I love the Bucs here as they were destroyed in week 1 of the pre season 44-16 while the Patriots looked awesome able to run the ball all over the Eagles on the road no less. Why just 3 points? Vegas is begging you to take the Patriots who don't have a strong history in pre season games to begin with. Don't have a short memory here! Josh Freeman has a lot to prove and Mike Glennon looked good backing him up. I expect the Bucs to go all out to get a win and the Bucs fall under two week 2 pre season trends. Play on a dog off a week 1 SU loss are 67-27-2 ATS since 2000, play on a team with a SU loss vs. a team off a content team off a SU win and they are 68-37 ATS that combines for 135-64 ATS!

Tigers -102 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Tigers despite them losing game 1 today of the double header. It's rare that a team will lose two times in one day, but I look at more then just trends. The Tigers have actually hit James Shields relatively hard. Cabrera has a .429 average, Fielder .357, Martinez .321, Hunter .293, Jackson .350, Dirks .333 in a good amount of at bats as the entire team combined has 236 AB and a .838 OPS. Shields comes into this game game on 4 days rest for the 3rd start in a row which means he is making his 4th start in 16 days and he's averaging over 110 pitches in his previous 3. He has had a very easy schedule on the road this year especially when he's on 4 days rest. If you take out his road start against the Tigers he's faced an average 20th rank in OPS vs. RHP in his road starts on 4 days rest over 7 starts. I really expect him to struggle tonight against a Tigers team that is motivated after losing game 1.

The Royals on the other hand go up against Jose Alvarez who has three pitches fastball, slider, and changeup. The Royals are 33-69 in their last 102 road games vs. LH starter and they are also ranked 21st, 22nd, and 22nd against those three pitches. While the Tigers are 45-16 in their last 61 home games vs. RH starter. I don't often jump on a public team like the Tigers, but I will here.

Angels +108 3.5* MLB POD I've been on the Yankees a couple times the last few days with our free pick. You can check out my blog for both write ups. However, I think the perception of the Yankees has changed to quickly and I think we are catching value on the right side today. I mean Phil Hughes should never be a favorite at home. He's just not built for Yankee Stadium because he is an extreme fly ball pitcher at over 48% which is #2 in the majors. That's not good and it has resulted in 6.18 ERA at home as he's given up 8 HR in his last 4 starts here alone. The Angels are 7th in HR vs. RHP and have plenty of pop with Trumbo & Trout in the line up. Hughes also has not exactly pitched well vs. the Angels posting an ERA over 9 in 5 career starts. Hughes also has a 5.70 ERA during day starts and a 5.51 ERA over the last three years while he's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is worn out right now posting a 5.29 ERA in their last 10. Angels on the other hand will have C.J Wilson going here who is on 4 days rest, but has pitched great with 12 of 14 quality starts posting a 2.90 ERA. When he's on 4 days rest off a start where he had 5 or more days of rest he gets even better with a 2.31 ERA. Wilson last 4 starts vs. the Yankees he has posted a 2.25 ERA and in 239 AB they are batting .218 with a .644 OPS. Wilson unlike Hughes has good numbers during the day 2.44 ERA and 2.86 over the last three years. I expect a quality outing from Wilson here and for the Angels to hit.

Nationals -146 3* MLB POD Jordan Zimmermann should be fresh here after 6 days off and he posts a 2.90 ERA at home and a 2.68 ERA at night, but on 5-6 days of rest he has a 1.75 ERA at home. He also has a 2.34 ERA in his last 5 vs. the Giants who are ranked 28th in OPS in the month of August and are averaging less than 2.6 runs per game since the All Star break. Washington on the other hand have found their bats and are 4th in OPS in the month of August nearly .200 points ahead of the Giants. Tim LIncecum who is also on 5 days rest has a 4.06 ERA away and a 4.70 ERA at night and a 4.84 ERA during his starts on 5 days rest. Lincecum does not have good numbers vs. the Nationals posting a 9.00 ERA over his last 5 starts against them. The Giants are backed by a bullpen that's struggling too and I just think there is enough value to call the Nationals my POD as they are 37-18 in Zimmerman's last 55 starts while the Giants are 6-20 in their last 26 as an under dog.

Nationals -125 4* MLB POD I love the Nationals in this spot as they have started to score some runs of late especially vs. LHP which they face tonight in Bumgarner. Gio Gonzalez will go up against a team that has not hit him and he posts a 3.03 ERA at home and a 2.26 ERA at night. More importantly is he is on 6 days rest and posts a 1.69 ERA at home when he's on 5 or more days of rest over 6 starts this season. The Giants are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and are 7-20 in their L27 as an under dog. Bumgarner has worse numbers here. He's got a 3.08 ERA on the road and a 3.15 ERA at night and faces a Nationals team that is scoring 6.31 runs per 9 while batting .308 vs. LHP over their last 10. Giants over that same time period are hitting .169 and scoring 2.25 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Nationals also have the edge in the bullpen with a 3.49 ERA over that period compared with the Giants 6.12. The Nationals have played well at home against bad teams and the Giants are under .400 on the road. The Nationals are 39-15 at home in their last 54 against teams with a road win% under .400.

[b]White Sox +116 3* MLB POD[/b]
It is hard not to back Chris Sale on our the way he's been pitching and he's on 5 days rest where he posts a 1.50 ERA over his last 8. He is also backed by a bullpen that is really doing its job with a 2.43 ERA over the last 10 games and he gets to face a Tigers line up that is hitting just .255 and scoring only 2.08 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Doug Fister on the other hand is on 4 days rest and the road where he has struggled at times. Fister has 4 poor starts this year of giving up 5 or more ER and 3 of the 4 have come on 4 days rest and 3 of the 4 have come on the road so he is clearly more likely to pitch poorly on the road where he is 3-12 in his last 15 as a favorite. White Sox hitters have decent numbers against him posting a .722 OPS and a .284 average in 95 AB. The Tigers are 7 games up in the AL West so this may be a game they relax a bit and Chris Sale can dominate.

Diamondbacks -144 3.5* MLB POD I like the Dbacks chances to take the series with Jonthan Niese coming back in this game he has really struggled in his career against the Diamondbacks who have hit lefties well at home. Niese has a 6.75 ERA in 4 career starts against the Diamondbacks and he's got a 6.66 ERA on the road and he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9 on the season. I looked back to see how the Diamondbacks offense did against starters who walked a lot of guys and they were able to bounce a lot of those guys out of the game early and I expect the same tonight especially since Niese is just coming off the DL. On the flip side we have Zeke Spruill who has been in the bullpen before making his first start last time out. Spruill will throw a ton of fast balls and sliders and those are the two pitches this Mets team have struggled against ranking 22nd and 23rd both with negative ratings. Spruill had a rough luck start having to pitch in Texas and he gave up 3 HR, but facing the Mets should not be an issue as they are 23rd in HR on the year and his home ball bark is one of just 12 ballparks producing less than 1 HR per game overall.

Red Sox -125 5.5* MLB POD
Boston is 15-5 in their last 20 as a road favorite and despite facing the red hot Royals I like them to continue that trend on Saturday night after losing the first two games. It's going to help a ton that they are facing a RHP again in Jeremy Guthrie who has a 4.69 xFIP and is not even striking out 5 guys per 9. Guthrie also has struggled vs. the Red Sox as 8 of 9 hitters in Boston's line up have an average over .300 and some significantly. Overall they have 192 AB .359 average and a 1.070 OPS. Boston should continue their trend as the best hitting team vs. RHP ranked #1 in OPS .821. Meanwhile the Royals are 24th in OPS .677 vs. LHP which they face tonight in Felix Doubrant, but before we touch on Doubrant it is worth noting that Guthrie is on 4 days rest where he has a 4.77 ERA. He's actually making his 2nd start in a row on 4 days rest which he's done 4 times this season posting a 5.33 ERA. He's coming off a complete game shutout so I expect the Sox to hit him hard.

Felix Doubrant on the other hand is on 5 days rest where he posts a 3.06 ERA in 10 starts, but over his last 6 he's got a 2.11 ERA. This is his second consecutive start on 5 days rest so he's fresh and it's worth noting that over 10 starts on 5 days rest he's given up more than 3 runs just once. Facing the Royals who are struggling vs. LHP on the year (3.83 runs per 9 at home) compared with Boston who is elite at hitting RHP (5.53 runs per 9 away) and I think we have a big advantage.

Indians -114 4* MLB POD I'll take the Indians at home here where they are 35-17 in their last 52 games while the Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 with Weaver as a road dog. The Anagles just simply have not hit and are ranked 15th vs. LHP, but even worse of late. Angels are scoring just 3.66 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road which is a run less than Cleveland vs. RHP. I look for the Indians to win this game with Scott Kazmir who is on 4 days rest, but has a 1.09 ERA in his last 5 on 4 days rest. Kazmir was unlucky earlier in the season and I still think we have value on him as his luck has turned and his ERA has lowered. He has feasted on some weak competition of late, but he will get the Angels who are struggling here tonight while he's backed by a bullpen that is flat out better than the Angels. Jerred Weaver on the other hand has a 3.96 ERA on the road, but has been worse on 5 days rest which is rare. ON 5 days rest he has a 5.40 ERA on the road and that's the situation he's in tonight. What's worse is in his 7 starts this year on 5 days rest he's gone 7 innings just once which means LA will have to rely on a bullpen that's been one of the worsts all season. It also does not help that the Angels are one of the worst defensive teams too.

Royals +104
Last night we were lucky enough to get a late win with the Red Sox, but we saw some signs of the offense that may start to struggle. They left a ton of guys on base and facing Bruce Chen won't be easy especially without David Ortiz, who is not in the line up which makes no sense because Chen has had issues with LHP this year. Chen overall has been great over his first 4 starts, but unlike Houston he is backed by a great bullpen while Houston's bullpen is awful and was the reason the Red Sox won.

Jon Lester continues to struggle and has awful numbers on the road this year. Even though he's on 5 days rest here I think he'll struggle. The Royals are hot right now 13-3 in their last 16 overall while the Red Sox are just 17-35 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Red Sox -167 4* MLB POD
I don't see many options on the board today, but I do like the advantage the Red Sox have in this one on the mound and on their bench. First of all if we are looking at home/away splits the Red Sox have the biggest advantage I've seen in quite a while scoring more than 2 more runs per 9 vs. RHP and they have a bullpen ERA that's 2.55 lower than Houston and Boston is the road team. Ryan Dempster will make another start on the road on 5 days rest where he carries a decent 3.94 ERA. He will finally face a weak hitting team as the Astros are 25th in OPS vs. RHP.

On the flip side Jared Cosart has been amazing through 4 starts posting a great ERA, but a closer look reveals that he has been lucky with a .214 BABIP and a 86.7% LOB%. He's not even striking out more batters than he's walking which is 3.86 per 9. Cosart throws 75% fastballs and 17% curve balls which make up the majority of his pitches. I Looked at several things here. Where do the Red Sox rank in OPS vs. RHP, their pitch value vs. FB and CB's and they are 1st, 1st, and 2nd. The other 4 opponents that Cosart has faced average rankings was 13th between those three categories. Cosart will have a real challenge facing the Sox tonight.

Braves +110 3.5* MLB POD I'm backing the Braves here who are red hot and have hit Stephen Strasburg hard over their career. In 128 AB they have a .852 OPS against him and that should continue tonight as they have scored 7.06 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 overall games. Meanwhile Washington is 30th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 3.00 runs per 9 over their last 10. I think both pitchers will pitch good enough to win but it's the Braves offense getting the nod along with their bullpen that has just been flat out dominant. Braves bullpen has a 0.81 ERA over their last 3 outings each combined while the Nationals have a 4.79. Strasburg tends to not go deep into games so this is critical factor for tonight's game. Mike Minor is on the hill for hte Braves and he's been fantastic with a 2.47 ERA on the road and has pitched a quality start in 11 of his 13 starts on 4 days rest. I expect it to continue against the Nationals who just have been clueless all year hitting lefties.

Indians -115 3.5* MLB POD
Cleveland has the #2 OPS during day games this year and they face the young and hard throwing Nathan Eovaldi. I really don't like this match up for Eovaldi who is walking 4.24 guys per 9 and really relies on his hard throwing fast ball which he throws 72% of the time with an average velocity of 96mph. Pitchers like this tend to struggle early in their career on 4 days rest. This is the first time he's making back to back starts on 4 days rest and while he has a 2.50 ERA at home he's faced some pretty poor offenses in the Mets, Nationals and Padres so I 'm not putting to much weight on that. The Indians have hit RH starters well who struggle with their control Take Verlander for instance who is having an uncharacteristic year with his control walking 3.5 guys per 9. The Indians have scored 11 runs off him in 3 starts while he has a 5.82 ERA against them. The other RH starters with more than 4 BB's per 9 have posted a 9.45 ERA. Eavoldi has been very lucky with a .237 BABIP but not today.

On the flip side Scott Kazmir has really turned things around and is on 5 days rest after just 87 pitches. He has a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 starts on 5 days rest and he faces a Marlins team that is 28th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 1.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 combined. He should be able to pitch a quality outing in this one against a poor hitting team and he's backed by a bullpen that is trending upward with a 3.20 ERA in their last 3 outings for each reliever combined.

Dodgers -112 4* MLB POD
The Dodgers club is #1 in ERA during day games and they are 17-12. Chris Capuano is going on 5 days rest which is a good thing because he's been solid when he has had the extra rest. In his 3 day starts he has a 0.47 ERA. His main issue all year has been his ability to get guys out when there are runners on base as he has a 65.9% LOB. Cubs are 21st in OPS with runners on and last in average. Those are good mix of results because the three starts he struggled in on 5 days rest were against 3 teams who were top 10 in OPS with runners on. His other 4 starts he posted a 0.69 ERA. Over the last two years Capuano has allowed just 8 hits 1 ER in 14 IP vs. the Cubs. and he's backed by a bullpen that is strong 2.48 ERA last 10 games and 2.33 ERA over their last 3 apperances for each reliever.

Cubs do send the talented Jeff Samardija to the mound, but in 50 AB the Dodgers have a .964 OPS led by Hanley Ramirez who is 8-15 against him. Jeff has not pitched well at home with a 4.90 ERA and this is his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest meaning it's his 4th start in the last 16 days and he's been over 100 pitches in all of those starts. In his last 6 starts on 4 days rest he has a 5.12 ERA and it seems like he's wearing down a bit. Facing the Dodgers who just continue to win will be a tough task.

Rays -151 4* MLB POD
I feel this is a great match up for the Rays facing Bumgarner whose ERA's are a run higher during night starts and starts on the road. Bumgarner is also facing the Rays who are 39-16 in their last 55 vs. LH starter. The Rays are also 2nd in the league in runs vs. LHP and OPS. Bumgarner also comes into this game off 116 pitch effort. That's just the third time he's thrown 115 or more pitches all year. The following start the previous two times did not result in quality outings - 6.2 IP 4 ER and 6 IP 5 ER. Add in that he has also never pitched on the turf in the big leagues and I think the home team has a significant edge.

The Rays send Chris Archer to the mound who has a 1.74 ERA at home and a 0.36 ERA over his last three starts. He's been a bit lucky I will admit with his LOB% and BABIP while he's walked more guys than I care to back, but he makes up for it as he has a 16.5% line drive percentage. That's not good for the Giants who are 20th in OPS vs. RHP. The 16.5% is good for 3rd among pitchers and to put it in perspective Bumgarner is at 18.6%. The Giants are also 8-22 in their last 30 as a dog and 3-13 in their last 16 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Archer who averages 95mph on his fastball is in good shape on 5 days rest. HIs last 3 starts have been on 5 days rest and his pitch counts have not been high despite throwing 9 IP a couple of times. I'm backing him here today.

Mariners +103 3.5* MLB POD King Felix has been red hot and this is excellent value considering the Red Sox bats have been a little cold lately against RHP - just 3.54 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Felix has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and he comes into this game on 5 days rest where he posts a 1.81 ERA on the year and a 0.79 ERA in 5 road starts. I just can't fade Felix here especially with Dempster on the mound. Dempster will be on 4 days rest and that's where the Mariners killed him earlier in the year with 4 ER over just 3.1 IP. The Mariners have a .794 ops against him in 115 AB. Dempster has had trouble with control and giving up the long ball. The Pirates are 12th in OPS vs. RHP and are 5th in HR. I'm liking the Mariners chances here to spoil a sweep and for Dempster to struggle.

Pirates +100 3.5* MLB POD
The Pirates are red hot right now and will look to sweep the Cardinals for a 4th straight time. Adam Wainwright on the hill for the Cardinals gives us great value on the Pirates. However, Wainwright has struggled vs. the Pirates in his career with a 5.20 ERA and Pirates have a .365 average and .999 OPS in 115 AB. Pitt is swinging the bats well right now more than 2 runs more per 9 innings compared with the Cardinals over the last 10 games and it shouldn't get any easier with Jeff Locke on the mound.

Locke was kind of fade material for me for a while due to his inability to consistently have control, but I'm passed that especially against a team like the Cardinals who are struggling and have not hit lefties nearly as well as righties all year long. Cardinals have one of the best bullpens in the game and it has showed especially at home where they carry a 2.12 ERA so it's hard to see how the Cardinals will score runs. Cardinals are currently stuck in 17 inning scoring drought and Adam Wainwright is making another road start on 4 days rest after throwing 100+ pitches in 3 consecutive starts. In his last 3 road starts on 4 days rest he has a 5.21 ERA and has failed to allow fewer than 3 ER. The Pirates magic ride will continue.. for now

Rangers -139 4* MLB POD The main difference between the lefties on the mound tonight is the offense and bullpen that supports them as well as their ability to control their pitches. That's where Texas has all three advantages. Derek Holland has been great with his control all year long and has a 3.26 ERA at home. He has not always been great against the Angels but he also has plenty of quality starts and right now the Angels are struggling to find their offense. C.J. Wilson however comes into this game on 4 days rest with his last 4 starts averaging 119 pitches. He walks 3.45 batters per 9, but on the road he's even worse at 4.17 and even worse vs. RHB which the Rangers put 7 in the line up tonight. Wilson has 3 starts in Texas since he left and they have not been of quality as he's allowed 14 ER in just 11.1 IP with a WHIP well over 2. The Rangers have had huge success this year vs. pitchers who struggle with location. Only 3 of the 11 actually got past the 6th innings and twice it was Jarrod Parker. Overall opposing starters who walk over 3 guys per 9 averaged just 5.1 IP and had a 5.95 ERA. That will not set things up well for the Angels whose bullpen has been struggling big time. I really like the Rangers to build off last night's victory.

[b]Pirates -146 3* MLB POD[/b]
Jake Westbrook has not been great on the road and he's struggled big time against the Pirates hitters. Pirates won't need much offense with the way they have been performing on the mound. Francisco Liriano looks dominant with a 1.67 ERA at home and he'll face a Cardinals team that only scored 3 runs in their sweep by the Braves. Cardinals have been a better hitting team scoring over a run more vs. RHP. This is the game the Pirates must have and have a significant advantage.

4* MLB pod

Nationals -137 3.5* MLB pod

Rockies -155 5* MLB POD
I love the Rockies tonight as I look for them to bounce back from a poor performance last night. This is one of the few times the Rockies have their offense healthy and ready to go with Fowler, Cargo, Tulo, and Cuddyer and even Todd Helton all in the line up last night. They'll need them against the young Jose Fernandez who posts a 2.75 ERA on the year. Fernandez though will have a difficult time pitchign at Coors for the first time. He's a fly ball pitcher and he already has a 4.17 ERA on the road and is walking more than 3 batters per 9 innings. He also probably won't get much support. Marlins just snapped out of a 37 inning scoreless streak and are scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road. They also face Jhoulys Chacin who is on a streak of his own.

Chacin has a 3.12 ERA over his last 7 outings, but what is more impressive and what made this a 5* play for me is the difference in his starts when he's well rested. When he's on 5 or more days of rest he has a 2.50 ERA in 9 starts this year. He should keep the Rockies in it and the Rockies have a significant advantage offensively. The Marlins are 15-43 in their last 58 as a road dog while the Rockies are 31-15 in their last 46 overall as a favorite.

Reds -134 4* MLB POD
Jeff Locke had a brilliant first half, but I fear it was more luck than skill. He did not even have a 2:1 ratio for K's to BB's as he had a 4.25xfip which was over 2 runs higher than his 2.15 ERA. There is not a lot of value to be had on Locke who was lucky with a .228 BABIP which led to a 83.3% left on base percent. He missed his last start due to a stiff back and has not pitched since July 8th. I predict a little rust in this situation especially for a young pitcher.

Meanwhile Homer Bailey pitches on 5 or more days of rest which is always key for a power pitcher in my opinion. He's backed it up posting a 2.57 ERA on 5 or more days of rest this season with half of his starts going at least 8 innings. Bailey is 10-3 in his last 13 vs. the Pirates and has 3 complete games out of his last 10 starts including a no hitter last year. Bailey has a 2.85 ERA at home this year and should have the advantage here as the Pirates have already started their 2nd half decline by losing the first two games of this series. Locke is 4-10 in his last 14 road starts while the Reds are 48-22 in their last 70 home favorites -110 to -150.

Twins +118 3* MLB POD

White Sox +113 3.5* MLB POD

Giants +144 4.5* MLB POD The Giants bats have finally woken up scoring 23 runs in the last 3 games which is partially due to Pablo Sandoval coming out of his slump. The real story here is the Giants shutout the Padres last night as Tim Lincecum threw a no hitter. Lincecum had been awful on the road all year, but he got 13K's and threw 148 pitches last night which just goes to show you how bad the Padres line up is right now. Today Barry Zito will take the ball and he's been bad on the road but he has a 2.45 ERA during day starts this year and in 3 starts vs. the Padres posts a 1.65 ERA and the Padres hitters have a .676 OPS in 168 AB off him. The Padres are just struggling right now scoring 2.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games with a .198 average and the Giants won't ask for Zito to go terribly deep as their bullpen is fresh having to only pitch 6 innings in 3 games. On the flip side Eric Stults has been great, but he's coming off a game where he threw 122 pitches which is 16 more than any other start this year. He only gets 3.5 days of rest since today is a day start and he faces the Giants who have a .336 average and a .874 OPS against him. Sandoval, Posey and Pence all have hit him extremely well going a combined 20-43. Stults also showed signs of slowing down before he faced Colorado allowing 9 ER in 8 innings. Completing a CG shutout against Colorado was not that shocking as the Rockies have been awful vs. LHP on the road and had a minor league line up out there. Michael Cuddyer was the only real threat that Stults had to get by and he still managed to walk 3 guys. The Padres bullpen has struggled in this series and I think they'll struggle here again. Padres are 29th in OPS during day games and 28th in ERA during day games this year.

MIL/AZ U8 3.3* MLB POD
I think we have good value here with Kyle Lohse on the mound facing the Diamondbacks. He's got a 3.16 ERA on the road after a slow start while the Diamondbacks have not been tearing the cover off the ball at home this year and are only scoring 1.95 runs per 9 vs. RHP in their last 5 games. Randal Delgado meanwhile is getting better with each start and faces a Brewers team that has really struggled on the road going 15-29 this year. Delgado has impressive raw stats with a 7.64 K/9 and a 1.09 BB/9 ratio. He's been unlucky with a .373 BABIP, but I expect him to pitch extremely well tonight against a bad team that won't have Braun, Ramirez or Hart three of the Brewers best hitters.

Both bullpens have been solid with a 3.15 ERA home and away. If you take all the relievers and look at their last 3 appearances and combine them both are below a 2.55 ERA which means they are pitching well currently. Arizona gets a lot of high totals and this is just another one, but the offense has not bee in this ball park this year. The total has gone under 43-20-4 in the last 67 home games and the Brewers are 12-0 on the under when Lohse pitches against a winning team.

Indians -142 4.5* MLB POD
I actually love this match up as their is a ton of value to be had on Corey Kluber who has a 3.09 ERA at home this year which includes two solid starts against the Tigers who are one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Kluber has been unlucky with a .335 BABIP on the year so his 4.23 ERA do not reflect his raw stats as he is averaging nearly 9K/9 with less than 2 BB/9 which is among the bets in baseball. He's got two starts this year vs. the Royals both on the road 12.1 IP 6ER, but only allowed 13 BR so it's been bad luck. I look for him to seek revenge back at home where the Indians are 18-8 in their last 26 as a home favorite.

Bruce Chen will make his first start after being in the bullpen all year and the Royals are 5-16 in his last 21 road starts. He's got a 2.41 ERA in 33 IP which looks nice in relief, but in reality there was a reason they moved him to the bullpen. His xFIP tells more of the story with a 5.20. The Indians over their last 10 games are scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP and in 144 AB they have great numbers off Chen with a .319 average and a .913 OPS. Asdrubal Cabrera looks like he broke out of his slump and is 8-26 vs. Chen.

Padres -140 4* MLB POD Padres picked up a must needed win last night against the Rockies who are struggling to find their offense. Andrew Cashner makes the start for the Padres where he is on 4 days rest which has been a good thing for him. It has been hard for him to find a groove this season, but when he's on 4 days rest he's pitched well with a 2.50 ERA on the year. He also has a 2.38 ERA at home where the Padres are 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a losing road team with a record under .400. That's how bad the Rockies have been on the road just 17-41 in their last 58 when they are under dogs. Rockies send De La Rosa to the mound against the Padres, but I think the Padres have some confidence while De La Rosa has a 4.50 ERA during night games and an ERA over 4 when he's on 4 days rest which is not ideal for him. He's pitched well against the Padres in the past, but the Padres are hitting lefties decently this year with a .252 average and 4.27 runs per 9 which is more than the Rockies offense can say of late. Without Cargo, Fowler and Tulo in the line up the Rockies offense will continue to struggle as they are hitting just .193 over their last 10 games combined while scoring less than 3 runs per 9. Their bullpen has also suffered with a 5.70 ERA over that time and De La Rosa tends to not go deep into games of late and on the road.

Dodgers -173 4.5* MLB POD
I really did not like today's card so I'm going with a play with a steep price, but I feel it's still a good price considering the facts. Clayton Kershaw is easily the best pitcher in baseball right now and the Dodgers are easily one of the hottest hitting teams. Kershaw has absolutely dominated the Giants over his career. Posting a 1.33 ERA in 19 starts and 20 appearances. This includes a 0.73 ERA in San Francisco where he will be pitching today against a Giants team that is struggling scoring just 2.35 runs per 9 over their last 10. Crawford and Pence are in a combined 2-60 slump right now and they have contend with the very talented south paw in Kershaw.

On the flip side Chad Gaudin comes off the DL to make a start and he just does not have the arm strength to go deep. The Giants bullpen has been excellent, but they are getting a lot of work before yesterday's quality start by Bumgarner the Giants starters had averaged just over 3.1 IP per start over their previous 4. The Dodgers have hit Gaudin hard in the past with Ethier and Crawford a combined 9-21. Collectively the Dodgers are scoring 6.91 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP.

Diamondbacks -164 4.5* MLB POD
I really like the Dbacks to stay hot right now as they did last night returning home to win their 3rd straight game over the Rockies. The Rockies have a few things going against them today.

For one they haven't been able to get to Wade Miley - 4 home starts against the Rockies and a 2.08 ERA to show for it. Secondly, they have injuries. Without Troy Tulowitski they have struggled against LHP even more than they already did. Scoring just 3.16 runs per 9 on the road against them. They are 21-44 in their last 65 overall games vs. LH starters. Thirdly they have Drew Promeranz on the mound tonight making just his second start. He's got a career 4.16 BB/9 which means he's not going deep into this game and the Diamondbacks should work themselves into good hitting counts. That also means the Rockies will have to rely on the bullpen which is not a good thing of late. Their available bullpen has a 6.60 ERA in each of the relievers last 3 games combined.

Diamondbacks have been a good home team Miley should benefit from a weakened Colorado line up especially if Carlos Gonzalez, who is questionable does not play. They are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. the Diamondbacks.

Phillies -164 4.5* MLB POD Love the Phillies in this spot. Everyone was saying the Pirates owned PA, but then the Phillies stepped up and won 2 of three in Pittsburgh. They now come home where they are 7-3 in their last 10 and 39-14 in their last 53 home following a road trip of 7 + days with their ace on the mound. Cliff Lee has flat out dominated the Braves in recent years posting a 0.78 ERA over his last 6 starts with 4 of the 6 going at least 8 innings or more. He's also on 5 days rest tonight where he's posted a 2.19 ERA this year. He's made 5 starts on 5 days rest and the worst start was 7 innings pitched 2 ER. I'm expecting a big outing out of him tonight as the Phillies try to go on a run to get back to .500. The Braves have been awful when they don't hit a home run and Lee is allowing only .57 HR/9 with a 6.7% HR/FB ratio. Lee also has a 2.60 ERA at night and has held Atlanta hitters to 3HR in nearly 200AB.

Phillies will face Tim Hudson who is 0-8 in his last 8 road starts. Hudson has struggled on the road all year 5.71 ERA and at night 4.45 ERA. He's struggled against the Phillies of late too and has allowed an .809 OPS over 353 combined at bats. Hudson who is also on 5 days rest has not been very good in this spot posting 4.09 ERA, but has failed to go further than 7 innings. Braves have been a dominating team at home, but less than average at home 20-23 and are 8-24 in their last 32 road games as a dog +150 or worse. Expecting the Phillies to win big tonight.

Royals -139 4* MLB POD In my opion this is a complete pitching mismatch. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a nice little run here of late, but he's still got a 4.91 ERA during the day and he's still walking over 4.5 batters per 9 innings. Jiminez has followed his trend of pitching well in June after struggling early. Over the last 3 years he had a 3.16 ERA during the month of June followed by a 5.63 ERA during July. I see that trend continuing with his first start in July coming today against the Royals who have scored 31 runs in their last 5 games alone. Jiminez is also on just 4 days rest where he has a 4.70 ERA this year and he goes up against a superior pitcher in Shields who is on an extra day of rest. Shields is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.94 ERA in 7 starts this year. He's held the Indians hitters to a .211 average and .647 OPS in 166 AB and has a 3.00 ERA over the last 3 years against them. Shields is also backed by a far superior bullpen posting a 2.53 ERA at home compared with the Indians 3.80 on the road and they are more than 1 run better overall. KC is also #2 in day ERA with a 3.29 and a 16-13 record. The Indians are just 19-42 in their last 61 road games vs. a RH starter. I expect a close game early, but for the Royals to get a couple of clutch hits today off Jimenez.

Yankees -153 3.5* MLB POD
The Yankees are making sure they win these games against weak competition. The Twins are able to hold their own at home, but against winning teams they are just 15-40 in their last 55 home games and the Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52. Tonight they send C.C. Sabathia to the mound who is 26-7 in his last 33 vs. AL Central. Sabathia is 9-1 in his last 10 starts against the Twins who have a .530 OPS in 129 AB with a .194 average. Sabathia has been great on 4 days rest ironically going 7 or more innings in 7 of 8 starts wiht a 3.06 ERA which is much better than his season ERA and I'm expecting the same tonight against the Twins.

P.J. Walters makes the start for Minnesota and he's allowed 16 ER in 9 innings and he's on 4 days rest as well and he's backed by a bullpen that has struggled big time of late especially in this series. Yankees are 43-17 in their last 60 road games with Sabathia as a road favorite.

[b]Reds -170 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Reds put up 8 runs last night looking like they have bounced out of their offensive slump. They are 4th in BB's and should get themselves in some good counts against Tim Lincecum who has struggled in his career against the Reds. Lincecum continues to struggle on the road posting a 5.23 ERA this year and on 5 days rest has a 4.65 ERA. The Giants are now 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road dog. Meanwhile the Reds are 40-14 in Bailey's last 54 vs. a losing team.

Bailey has been dominant on 5 days rest and he'll have his first start on back to back 5 days of rest where he posts a 2.57 ERA and has 3 gem performances. It's clearly when he's most dominant and I expect him to have little trouble with a Giants line up that has scored just 2.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games as Sandoval has gone 1-21 over his last 7 games. Bailey had 2 starts vs. the Giants last year and posted a 2.02 ERA a WHIP under 1 while striking out 16 batters and only walking 3. Cincinatti pitchers have posted a 3.30 ERA during night games this season and Bailey has a 2.89 while the Reds have gone 28-20 overall. The Giants are just 22-28 during night games and are 25th in ERA.