Bears +12 (4.4* POD); Bears +18; U48 2.2* bonus Last I checked the Bears are still playing for a playoff seed as they can get in with 2 Falcons losses and 2 wins. Now they make a switch at QB once again and it can only be for the good as Hanie threw 3 interceptions in 3 of 4 games and really cost this defense. Enter Josh McCown which should not excite anyone, but I don't think he'll turn it over at that rate giving the Bears some sort of shot here. This is a divisional opponent and I just can't see the Bears getting blown out in this spot. Especially.... Since Rodgers and the Pack just lost last week and now they are resting two tackles and Greg Jennings is still out. How many times are they going to let Aaron Rodgers stay back there and get hit by Julius Peppers if guys can't get open and they can't block? Expect more runs from the Pack than usual and the feeds right into the Bears hands as the 8th ranked run defense and they are better than that number suggests in my opinion. Either way this is a close game between two divisional opponents with the Bears having much much more to play for here. Both teams will run the ball a lot leading to a quicker game which is why I also like the under in a teaser with the Bears. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog 10.5 +.

Magic +8.5 4.4* NBA POD

Nevada +8 (4.4* POD) Over 57/Nevada +14 (2.2* teaser) Love Nevada and I think a lot of points get scored tonight as both teams have balanced offenses and are int he top 15 in scoring points. Souther Miss coach Larry Fedora is headed to North Carolina but oddly enough administration is letting him stay to caoch I don't know where his motivation is for this game nor do I know what it is for the team after they upset Houston in the Conference Championship, but look for it to have an impact on this game. First do not sleep on a WAC team as LA Tech nearly upset both Houston and Smiss losing by a combined 3 points and Nevada had a 20-3 lead over LA Tech in the 4th quarter before losing 24-20. I think Nevada's offense is more explosive and is converting 49.14 % on 3rd down while Smiss is at 43.5% both teams are the same defensively on 3rd down and Smiss gets much worse on the road 46%. Red Zone action, both teams have gotten there 55 times this year and Nevada 60% of the time turns them into TD's while Smiss 54.5%. Also Nevada is allowing 9 fewer attempts by opponents into the red zone. Game will be played on turf and Smiss is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on turf while Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as dogs.

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD Love the Chargers today they are just hot right now they are better defensively and right now on offense they are better especially when it comes to balance. They can run the ball and pass and Antonio Gates should have a nice day as the Lions seem to be a little weak in the middle of the field. Chargers have put up 38, 37, and 34 in their last 3 games and they played Jaguars and Ravens defenses in 2 of those 3 games both better equipped to stop opposing offenses than the Lions. Detroit on the other hand has literally no running game and SD is allowing less than 14 points the last 3 weeks and they own the 6th ranked pass defense. There is a reason why SD leads the league in fewest passing attempts per game against them. Teams do not want to throw on them. This game comes down to these two QB's and DET is allowing 68% per pass in their last 3 while SD 55%, Offensively both QB's are hot right now, but Rivers last 3 games is hotter 75% of his passes have been completed compared to Stafford 66%. On the season both QB's sack % per drop back is very similar at 5.63% to 5.15 % with Stafford holding the advantage but Rivers over the last 3 games just 2.33% compared to Stafford 7.44%. Chargers just have more experienced and are used to these late season must win games and the Lions are not. San Diego is 23-9-3 ATS in their last 35 as a dog 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 as a road dog while the Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Rhode Island +5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Love RI don't buy into Providence record they have schedule a weak schedule before they get into the Big East schedule they have a new coach a new rotation and 4 guys are averging nearly a full game. RI should be able to tire them out and have an advantage in the rebound margin. RI are actually +4 in rebound margin already so expect them to continue that again to night against a team they match up well with. Their defense should improve when they play their rival they have beaten them at home the last 4 meetings here. The Fryars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on the road and they have not played many teams on the road this year. Speaking of the teams they've played 9 of their 10 wins have come against teams in the 200s in RPI and 4 of those teams were actually over 300. RI has help on the way in the 2nd semester with some transfers and it would be real important to get a buzz going again if they can win this game.

LB ST -130 5* NCAAB POD

HOU/IND U40.5 (4.4* pod); Colts+7 (2.2* bonus) Okay so it's obvious the Texans will be spending a lot of time on the ground and can they put up big scoring numbers? I don't think so as the Colts are not that bad vs. the run allowing 4.1 ypc good for 13th. Texans just lost to Carolina who were 24th allowing 4.6 ypc and they didn't lose on the road they lost at home, meanwhile the Colts got their first win and I'd say this game is important to them because they have dominated the alleged rivalry from previous years and this team is proud and should come out in front of their fans and put up a good fight. I doubt the Texans will be dropping back risking another QB injury considering the Colts can rush the passer. Plus teams have definitely caught up to Yates and even over their last 4 games they have only scored 13-20 points per game. Colts won't score much either keeping things one the ground and Houston's top 5 defense should keep this one easily under the total. I see a 17-14 17-13 type game.

Arizona State +14.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Arizona State is a time that really lost a lot down the stretch after starting 6-2 and being nationally ranked. Their defense turned south, but they continued to score points and that's why I like them still tonight. On the shoulders of Brock Osweiler I think he'll be able to score enough points to cover this spread. Why would Arizona State be pumped for this game? Despite not going to a BCS or even in their conference championship this team is playing a top 10 team so defeating them would send the seniors out on a high note and this is a senior laden team. Dennis Erickson stepped down or fired or whatever will coach his last game. I believe preparation will be at a premium. Not many people know their last game or their last hoorah but Erickson in this situation does. He's got an impressive resume from his Miami days and his days in the NFL and I believe he'll have some special things for Boise tonight that will allow them to cover the spread. On the flip side Boise had just 14 sacks in their last 11 games and they allowed 10 TD passes in a 3 game span vs. UNLV, TCU, and SD State. Osweiler runs the 10th ranked passing offense and should cause fits for Boise defense. Boise of course is an offensive machine behind Kellen Moore's 41 TD passes he has not lost a beat all year long despite losing his top two WR to the NFL Draft. AZ has the talent up front to get into the backfield and stop the run. Boise only ran the ball 4.54 ypc and just 4.22 in their last 5. That's productive but not enough to dominate a game and cover this spread. Arizona State at one time was the #1 team in the league in sacks and forced turnovers and they did finish with 29. I think the outstanding LB Vantaze Burfict who quit on his team in the last game will be highly motivated and even motivational to his teammates. I do expect to see some of that momentum on Arizona State's side throughout this time. Will it be enough to win? I doubt it, but if they can get back to where they were earlier in the year on 3rd down defense holding Oregon 3 for 11 and holding various other opponents under 30% they can win this game. On the year they have held opponents to 34% conversions and even their red zone defensive TD% allowed is lower than Boise 53% to Boise's 64%. Secret weapon would have to be kick returner Jamal Miles. He's got returns of 98 and 95 yards and a punt return for a TD of 78 yards look for this to be an advantage in this game. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 10.5+ while Boise just 0-6ATS in their last 6 as favorites 10.5+.

MTSU +2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Close calls the last two days in games but we fell on the wrong side this time we'll have the dog so when it gets to be a close game again we should be fine. MTSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog .5 to 6. Miss has been prone to playing a lot of close games this year and MTSU actually won earlier in the year by 20 points vs. UCLA so they are very capable of taking down a big team. MTSU is shooting a nation's second best 53.7% from the field and over 40% from the perimeter. while the Rebels come in at just 43%. Both teams play good defense with Miss allowing 39.2% shooting by opponents and MTSU right behind them with 39.5%. The main advantage on paper is that Miss averages 40 rebounds a game while MTSU is at 35, but a closer look reveals that's more to do with FGA per game as Miss is 70th with a 52.9% rebound percentage while MTSU comes in at 93rd with 52.3%. MTSU I believe actually matches up well pound for pound down low with Laron Dendy 6-9 230 and JT Sulton 6-8 230. Miss has 4 guys between 6-7 and 6-10, but I believe MTSU has more talent in this one in what will be an back and forth game I'm taking the better shooting team.

L.A. Tech played some quality teams and won 7 straight down the stretch.

If you have been following me this year you know that I

Idaho -2.5 4.4* play
Idaho is really playing well and it

49ers -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD); 49ers +3.5/U44 3.3* teaser Love the 49ers here tonight this is a huge game for them to keep the #2 seed in the NFC for home field and they go up against a Steelers team that has struggled this year when it's had to play a top 5 defense going 0-3 losing twice vs. the Ravens and once vs. the Texans. 49ers are ranked 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Big Ben will play it looks like although they should hand the ball off quite a bit in this one and that plays in the hands of the 49ers who own the leagues #1 run defense. I expect this to give the Steelers tons of issues especially since they have not played that well on the road even against mediocre teams. 49ers may be without Patrick Willis, but the Steelers are surely without James Harrisson which makes that a wash. I like the fact that the 49ers just do not turn the ball over with Alex Smith turning it over just 5 times. Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday night games. The under is 37-18 in the Steelers last 55 road games as a dog. It's obvious this game turns into a defensive affair and I'm banking on the 49ers coming up big at home.

I love Western Illinois here as Illinois Chicago overall is allowing 48.4% shooting on this season and they are also a terrible FT shooting team themselves.

Lions -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Lions, they simulated a 4 game playoff run last year and went on a run and I believe they duplicate that on their way to the playoffs. They control their own destiny and Oakland right now has lost their strength, the ability to run the ball is basically gone as Bush has less than 3 yards per carry over the last 3 games. Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite .5 to 3. Look for the Lions to really push the pocket on Carson Palmer who has made all kinds of mistakes since coming back to the NFL.

PRINCETON +2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

ULLAF +4.5

One team is thrilled to be in the New Orleans bowl and the other is disappointed as they had higher hopes for 2011, but it

Bucs +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Cowboys are on back to back disheartening losses and I'm curious to see how they can dominate an opponent like the Bucs who have lost 7 games in a row, but the Cowboys are 2-4 on the road and even in their 2 wins they won by a FG in both and I expect a very close game the Bucs are not as bad as they have played. Statistically the main difference between these two teams is turnovers and Josh Freeman is having an awful year, but I think he bounces back when he returns home if they start handing the ball off to Blount and being more conservative this team can absolutely pull the upset and hopefully save their head coaches job. Raheem Morris is said to be on the hot seat now and I think his team plays for him tonight at home. Some stats that are just too similar to give the Cowboys a TD fav on the road. For one TB and Dallas are both averaging 19 ppg when TB is at home and Dallas is on the road. Dallas is giving up 24.7 on the road while TB is allowing 25 so it seems that both teams are scoring and allowing the same amount of yards. Also 3rd down defense, TB is not terrible in fact they are slightly better than Dallas with 39% both are ranked 17th and 18th. Run defense too Dallas is allowing 4.2 yards per carry on the season overall while TB 4.6 is worse, Dallas lost Demarco Murray who was averaging a yard better than Felix Jones this season. Red Zone offense both teams are ranked low Dallas 25th with just 46.3% TD in the red zone while TB is 27th with just 43.75%. Really don't understand the spread here as Dallas is also 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 as a road favorite and TB is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.

Oakland +2.5 (5.5* play) Other than facing off against Arizona Valpo has faced nobody. They are 5-0 at home, but they are among the nation's slowest paced teams and even in their 5 home games they are allowing opponents to shoot the ball 10 more times than them. That's outrageous 10 more field goal attempts and they are not even playing good defense to be able to over come that with 48.1% on the season 40% form 3. Oakland meanwhile averages over 62 FGA that's more than 12 more than Valpo. They like to play fast and that should have an impact. This Oakland team again is the favorite to come out of their conference for the third straight year and they have played 4 big teams already in Alabama, Michigan, Arkansas and Tennessee and they came up with a win vs. Tennessee. Valpo does not have the defense to shut this team down and they don't have the scoring to keep up though they are ranked high in FG% they really haven't been pushed with tempo like they will be tonight and they are due to lose at home especially since they are averaging 17 turnovers per game. Oakland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road dog.

NC Wilm +14(4.4*) These are two teams that know each other well playing two times a year, NC Wilm continues to play well as under dogs going 5-1 ATS so far this season they just won at Ill State as 12.5 dogs 63-54. VCU is off a huge win vs. Richmod so in my opinion this line is inflated while VCU is likely looking ahead to UAB who beat them last year. VCU is only shooting 39.7% from the field this year and NC Wilm plays solid defense especially from 3 point on the road allowing just 25.5% from the perimeter. That's important because VCU is hoisting up 22 attempts per game from the perimeter. This is not the same VCU team that went to the Final Four a year ago and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Colonial because of infalted lines like this one. NC Wilmington's freshmen Adam Smith is becoming a star and should give them fits. NC Wilmington is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 as a dog 13+ and they should have every opportunity to win this one.

Idaho State -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Utah is worse in every category. At least Idaho State can force turnovers. Utah just 8.9 forced turnovers per game and they are giving it up 14 times they can't even take advantage of Idaho State's weakness. Both teams have a common opponent in Boise State who they played on the road. Both teams played poorly, but Idaho State played better defense and better offense as far as FG% goes. Idaho pretty much played right with Boise other than the fact that Boise out rebounded them and got to the FT line a ton more times. Meanwhile Utah got blown out despite getting to the FT line more they gave up 46.7% from the field and 55.6% from 3 point range.

Falcons/Jaguars Under 42.5 (2.2* total); Falcons -5.5/U48.5 (4.4* POD Teaser)
This game is very interesting as the Jaguars come off a season high in points and the Falcons erased a 23-7 deficit and scored 24 unanswered points as we ended up losing our Panthers bet in that game.

Denver -3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Love Denver here first of all Denver is 16th in the nation in FG% running the Princeton offense effectively with Senior Leadership including the key return of Rob Lewis and Brian Stafford.

Niagara +6.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Drexel beat Niagara badly a year ago 84-39 and as we have seen in many cases in betting that team usually comes back the next time with some revenge. In that game they were out rebounded -23, out shot 54% to 29% and had a -3 turnover margin. Now they are at home and they do play a Drexel team that is very very good on defense, but Niagara has Antoine Mason back after injury they did not have him a year ago when they shot 29% and he was their leading scorer with over 16 points per game.

Now Niagara is a relatively large home dog on revenge in this spot and they are playing a Drexel team that really struggles to score points particularly on the road. Thus far they are 320th in scoring and 320th in FG%. Now Niagara is not juggernaut at defense, but their offense has started to click and they are scoring into the 70's in 3 of their last 4 games including an impressive game at home vs. Fairfield. They're also forcing 17 turnovers per game at home which has been reason for their poor defensive FG% defense as they take some chances. I believe their motivation will be high tonight facing Drexel and they should get it done. Drexel themselves are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing record at home while Niagara ae 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games alone. Don't be surprised if Niagara wins this game out right which would be a +260 pay day.

Rams +10.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Betting makes any game interesting and we love the fact this is an in division rival with both teams knowing each other well. The Rams have double revenge. The Rams lost at a chance at the playoffs last year because of the Seahawks so you bet they want this game. Who are the Seahawks to be laying this many points? This is just the second time the Seahawks are favored all year. The first they lost at home to the Redskins as -3. I know Bradford is questionable but judging by the line movement I'd be he plays. Either way both teams will spend most of the night on the ground running. That will shorten the game quite a bit and in those type of games I'm going with the under dog especially when it's a double digit favorite. Rams last in the league in run defense actually held Lynch in check last time holding him to 88 yards and 27 carries.

CHI/DEN U35.5 5.5* NFL POD
Well this may be one of the more boring games, but obviously important to both teams playoff chances. ON the Bears side they are without Matt Forte which takes away 40% of their offense. They already are not the same passing team without Cutler, but now without Forte they are in trouble because Forte has the vision and receiving skills that Marian Barber does not. I think the Bears struggle to score points and they'll be asking their defense to step up all day long. Bears are the best defense that Tebow has faced since the Jets who shut him down until the last drive.

Bears front 7 is just more talented than the Jets so I expect the running game of Denver to struggle. That turns things over to Tebow and the passing game and we'll see if John Fox lets Tebow go a little bit here. I don't see any more than 20 passing attempts by either team. This will be a run first effort by both and both defenses are capable of shutting the opposing offense down. The only way this goes over the total is if we have turnovers or special teams touch downs. Both teams play this conservatively considering how important the game is. The under is 45-20-2 in the Bears last 67 as a road dog and the Broncos are under 17-7 in their last 24 following a SU win.

IONA +1.5 5.5* NCAAB POD

Manhattan +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Not an exciting game by any means, but Manhattan has caught my eye and they are playing good basketball and now they play a team they play every year and have lost the last 4 they have the confidence, finally to take them down and I believe they will here today. This is a team that's 4-0 ATS on the road this year 3-1 straight up as all 4 they have been under dogs. Some of their offensive statistics are not as bad as they appear as they played games without their leading scorer George Beamon, but Beamon is back in this one. Hofstra meanwhile has struggled big time barely getting past teams and are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 at home as a favorite .5 to 6.5. Manh is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 raod games. I also like that Manh is +4.5 rebound margin this year and 72.7% from the FT line.

Army +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game is pretty cut and dry if you ask me. Both teams know each other extremely well and run the same offense, the triple option. It comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run. In those categories these two teams are pretty even. Army a little better at running and Navy a little better at stopping it, but a lot can be said about those stats with strength of schedules and types of offenses each other has played. I look more at their 3rd down and RZ defense can these two stop each other when it counts, and even 4th downs matter in this game because Army has gone for it on 4th down 33 times while Navy 28 times.

Army comes out ahead in most of these key categories and their schedule was not all that easy facing 8 of 11 teams that are bowl eligible. Army ran the ball over 5 yards per carry vs. every opponents but the first when they were 4.91 ypc vs. Northern Illinois. Navy on the other hand was held under 4 ypc twice and 5 another time. Vs. their common opponent Air Force, Navy allowed 5.44 yards per carry while Army allowed 3.31 ypc on 54 carries. In terms of 3rd down conversions Navy comes in at 47.7% while Army 44.9%, defensively Army 49.2% and Navy at 51%, small advantage to Army there, but on 4th down it's a different story, as Army 54.5% conversions and Navy just 46% and defensively Army allowed 37% on 4th down while Navy 61%.

Red Zone, who can turn the possessions into TD's, well Army has 70.45% on their 44 attempts, Navy 43 attempts have 63% TD's and defensively the two are relatively even 75% to 73% in favor of Navy, but Army has only allowed 37 attempts while Navy has allowed 52 attempts. Navy does not have the same LB crew they have had in years past to dominate against the run and Army just seems to be sick of losing 9 times in a row this is clearly their best shot at pulling the upset. I wouldn't say a service academy could have any sort of a let down, but if any team is going to have a let down it's Navy after losing to San Jose State they became bowl ineligible. This game is both Navy and Army's bowl game, but Navy is used to going to a real bowl game in 8 straight years so you have to wonder if they can match the intensity early vs. Army.

Browns +14.5 (4.4* NFL POD) It's going to be in the 20's in Pittsburgh tonight with some winds and Cleveland already has the #1 pass defense. This means a very quick game with lots of running I can see a 17-6 or 17-7 final type. We have already seen the Steelers struggle to get past the Jaguars, Chiefs and Colts and the Browns are very familiar with the Steelers by playing in their division to me this is just too many points for an in division rival. I look for Clevelands offense to do better than they did on Sunday vs. Baltiomore because Baltimore is among the leagues best in 3rd down defense while Pitt is ranked 20th. IT's not the same dominant defense it was in prior years and the offense has suffered some major inconsistencies. It's not like the Colts, Jaguars, or the Chiefs have prolific offenses or shut down defenses.

Harvard +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) On this team earlier this year they are a team that is poised to come into the NCAA tournament at the end of the year they can play inside and out and they can play with the talented teams in the nation. The Huskies are as good as they come so it will be real interesting to see what happens tonight, but the Huskies usually get in trouble in these type of games and are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite .5 to 6.5 points and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Ivy League.

I'll st -3.5 8.8* pod

pENN sT -1.5 4.4* pod

Browns +7 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Browns here they continue to fly under the radar to most people and yet again when the line opened up as Ravens -7.5 the line quickly moved off that to 6.5 and 7 where it sits now with most of the public backing the Ravens. Ravens have had several hang overs after a big win and last Thursday's game was a big one over the 49ers. Earlier the Ravens have been hung over on the road after a big win in losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks. Neither of those two are as good as the Browns who have the leagues #1 pass defense and are #1 in red zone defense allowing just 40% TD's when opponents get inside the 20. Expect a low scoring game but for the Browns to hang around in this one giving them a shot to win outright.

4.4* pod

Uconn +9 (5.5* NCAAF POD); Uconn +300 Uconn + and Money Line Before you could really beat Uconn with a solid passing game, but right now Cinci does not have that with Munchie and Jordan Luallen both not completing 50% of their passes this offense has gone into a tailspin since losing Collaros and though they went on the road to beat Syracus last week it was all about Isaiah Pead and Uconn boasts the best run defense in the Big East and they are #3 in the nation. That ranking is legit their front 7 is the best I

Ohio +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Just 29% of the public is on the Ohio Bobcats in the MAC Championship game, but I like them to cover and probably win out right. Toledo was the last balanced offense that Northern Illinois faced and they gave up 60 points to them. Ohio will force this game into a slower paced game and Northern Illinois defense which I will admit is under rated was just not the same away from home. They

CINCI -1.5 11* POD

Eagles-2.5 buy 1/2 -120 (4* NFL POD) Call me crazy but this team is better with Vince Young than Michael Vick. We saw it early vs. the Patriots and he's less prone to making big mistakes than Vick is. He threw for over 400 yards vs. the Patriot defense and had countless drops from his receivers. I think the Eagles are a better road team right now 3-2 on the year because playing at home is just too stressful for the "Dream Team." This is the first time I am backing them all year we have faded them a bunch, but I think the time is right despite going up to Seattle. The Seahawks have their own issues with their offense that's among the worst in the league 30th, and they are converting just 32% of their 3rd downs while the Eagles secondary should shut down Travaris Jackson who has 3 TD and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games. Philly's defense is also better on 3rd down the biggest difference right now between these two teams is the turnovers. If the Eagles don't turn the ball over they'll win this game. Even without Vick and Maclin they are far better on offense and I'd say they have much more talent on defense although Seattle stops the run a bit better. Andy Reid just is not a run first type of guy. McCoy had 10 touches a week ago vs. the Patriots. The guy is still the leading rusher though expect the Eagles to win this game on the arm of Vince Young and I feel confident saying that.

South Florida +2 -105 (4.2* NCAAF POD) West Virginia really has not looked good this season especially on the road where their defense has been atrocious giving up 31 to Maryland, 49 to Syracuse, 31 to Rutgers, and then rebounding to give up 21 to Cinci (playing without Collaros most of the way). West Virginia had just 16 sacks all year long before tallying 10 a week ago vs. Pitt, but they'll have their work cut out for them South Florida has been sacked just 14 times and it appears they will have BJ Daniels for this game. A game that is not just any game to either team.

West Virginia wants that BCS game and South Florida wants to win and get in. West Virginia has struggled big time on offense when they are rushed by opposing defense and this to me is just a bad match up for them. South Florida is very fast and they're 2nd in the nation in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Their offense on the other hand that many doubt is the 2nd most productive in conference play and is very balanced. This is a defense that simply had a let down vs. Louisville after holding Miami to 6 points. The key is if South Florida can run on West Virginia and I think they can as West Virginia is allowing 4.89 yards per carry compared to 3.07 at home and folks they placed the nation's worst rushing attack in Rutgers and still gave up 31 points. Rutgers does not have a juggernaut passing game by any means so that just goes to show you this is not the same West Virginia defense from years past. South Florida on the flip side can absolutely make what is already a one dimensional offense as they are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry at home. I think their pass rush is the key and I think LB DeDe Lattimore and DE Ryne Giddins will have huge games leading their team to victory.

Before we finish this up let's just go over my favorite stats 3rd down and the Red Zone. It's a crucial aspect of the game when backing a under dog. Can the under dog trade TD's for field goals and in this case they 100% absolutely can. West Virginia is nothing special just 40% overall on 3rd down offensively and on the road 34.5% while USF defense is allowing 34% at home. West Virginia's defense as you guessed on the road is worse allowing 43.94 % conversions. Their offense struggled big time on the road vs. Cinci and Rutgers and USF has a better run defense than Rutgers and are better vs. the pass than both of those teams. Red Zone also advantage for South Florida defensively as they allow just 44% TD's on RZ trips for opposing offenses. West Virginia's offense 64% but 50% in road games. South Florida's offense meanwhile continues to improve in the red zone as they are 60% at home, but 70% overall in their last 4 games. West Virginia's defense allowing 73.68% TD's in their road games this year. On top of all the poor road play they are penalized 7.8 times per game on the road.

Wisconsin +7.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) UNC is in a tough sandwich game as they just lost to UNLV so a hang over is expected as they also look ahead to facing # 1 Kentucky on Saturday. With that said they have been out rebounded 3 times this year and have the tendency to go cold when they missed their first 10 shots of the 2nd half in their last game. Wisconsin is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 and bring in the nation's #1 defense in points allowed and FG% at 30.5% and 22% defense beyond the arch. Wisconsin can also shoot them and they are at +13.5 rebound margin and hardly ever turn the ball over at 8.5 per game. They'll have all the statistical advantages and I think this game is close throughout.

Arkansas St -3.5 (4.4* POD) Arkansas plays good defense we saw it last game vs. Louisville. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Ohio Valley Conference. Arkansas State beat SE Missouri on the road last year 56-50 despite playing poorly. They return home in this match up where they went 13-0 last year. They have been solid defensively and SE Missouri has played bad defense which I believe will lead to them covering this line as they are giving up 47% FG while Ark State is at 39.1%. They're expected to compete yet again for the Sun Belt Division title ast hey return their 1-2 punch F Adams and swingman Finn. SE has F Leon Powell, but I like the depth and experience down low for Ark State which should keep Powell in check as he was just 4-9 from the field a year ago.

NO/NYG Over 50.5 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see the Giants being able to slow down Drew Brees and both teams are among the best in the league in protecting their QB. Brees 19 sacks on the year but he's only been hit 35 times. Manning too only sacked 19 times and 49 hits, but the Saints have literally no pass rush ranked 23rd in the league. Giants have been struggling to run the ball as it is and without Ahmad Bradshaw they'll like go to the air early and often. Saints come off a bye and that's bad news for the Giants. The last 3 years Brees off a bye has been home in each vs. the Seahawks, Giants and Packers. The Saints have won all three of those game by a combined score of 133-75 or 69.33 points per game. Drew Brees has been flawless in thos games throwing for 1,074 yards 12 TD's and 2 interceptions. The Giants are no longer a run first team and now they're 18-7-1 on the over in their last 26 games vs. the NFC and 9-4 in their last 13 as a dog.

Colorado -4 -105 (4.2* NCAAB POD) Like Colorado here they open up their home schedule tonight and are going up on revenge for their loss last year at Georgia. Georgia lost 3 key players to last year and it's evident as their leading scorer and leading player as far as playing time goes (min/g) is the highly touted freshmen Pope and he's shooting just 38%. Georgia is really struggling to score points and that will be a real problem facing Colorado who despite losing a large portion of their offense knows how to score especially at home. They were 12th in the nation last year in the nation in scoring at nearly 80 points per game. Georgia is also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non conference games and haven't shot well to start the year and I expect that to continue as they move to high elevation here tonight.

Rams -2 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Rams in this one as they dominated the game in Arizona a few weeks ago this is the Cardinals 3rd road game in a row on Tday weekend and they were out gained by 121 yards in the first match up while the Rams held onto the ball for 37 minutes. I twas a missed field goal, an interception and penalties and poor special teams play in OT giving up the TD to Patrick Peterson that cost the Rams that game. This is a must win for the Rams with Steve Spagnolia and his GM on the hot seat and I think they just have more balance than the Cardinals right now. Both teams can rush the passer and we saw that in the first game, but the Rams should have the advantage at home and the advantage with the guy behind center. Many think Sam Bradford has regressed but I like what I am seeing with Brandon Lloyd of late and Steven Jackson had 130 yards rushing in the first match up while Beanie Wells for the Cardinals had just 20 yards on 10 carries. Cardinals are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.

Marshall -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Marshall can get a bowl eligible victory here, but they can also earn the east crown if Southern Miss falls later in the day. That will allow Marshall to play with a lot of energy here. This is a team that beat Louisville and S. Miss at home and continues to play well here they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home fav .5 to 3. East Carolina has been hurt big time with injuries they have 4 offensive linement that are questionable for Saturday and they lost WR's and 3 RB's. Maybe they can make up for those things in home games, but on the road I don't think so. I expect Marshall to come up with a big win on Saturday especially having 2 extra days to prepare.

This is a defense that gets after the QB they have a ton of sacks and they're led by an NFL talent in Vinny Curry who has 11 sacks himself. They get after the QB particularly at home and that leads to turnovers as they are +9 in TO margin at home while Eastern Carolina is -12 on the season turning it over 31 times this year. This is SR day and Marshall has 15 seniors who will be playing in their last game at home. Don't sleep on the Marshall pass defense as they have played miles better at home holding opposing QB's to a 106 QB rating and 51.8% . East Carolina can't run the ball just 3 yards per carry on the road while their defense allows 5.05 so expect Marshall to be running a lot with Tron Martinez they are very capable of dominating a team on the ground.

Last edge will be field advantage and it's a huge edge. East Carolina dead last in net punting averaging just 29.1 yards per punt and they are last in punt return defense. Marshall averages over 11 yards per return so I expect great field position for Marshall all day long which should lead to points and a victory.

4.4* POD

Tulsa +3.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Tulsa here you can say arguably they are the better team as their 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise state in the beginning of the year. Tulsa actually won at Houston last year , but they

Ravens -3 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the Ravens for the simple fact that the 49ers are not used to playing this type of game on both sides of the ball. They play physical themselves, but how often do you see them going up against opponents like this and on a short week and traveling across country? One other time when they faced the Bengals in a 13-8 win, but remember that was an even younger Andy Dalton that was not cut loose until a few games ago. Ravens on the other hand well they have faced 4 like defenses to the 49ers in the Bengals, Steelers (2x), and Jets. Guess what they went 4-0 straight up and ATS and they put up 31, 23, 34, and 35 points. The 30 point games came at home and as we all know they are a different team at home. Why do I bring up this style of football? Well the 49ers will have to take chances in this game running the ball and throwing short just won

TX/TXAM U53.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); TX +8.5 (3.3* PLAY) I love this match up and I'll break it all down. First of all Texas is the best defense that A&M has seen all year long and it's not even close. Some of A&M's home stats running and passing are skewed because they have not faced a top defense like Texas which is #1 in Big 12 and 10th in the nation in total defense. Let's look at who A&M has played at home that has gotten them to some of their great H/A stats. Baylor (115th total defense), Kansas (120th), Missouri (80th and they lost), Oklahoma St (105th) and Idaho (91st). Texas won't need to get in a shoot out this is a team that's stout at stopping the run right we saw what they did against Kansas State and Missouri in back to back weeks and I feel they'll have some extra motivation seeing as though A&M is leaving for the SEC and they'll look for some revenge after losing at home a year ago. Texas A&M has not been the same when they can't run the ball and Cyrus Gray is banged up with a shoulder injury and their other star is gone for the year. Texas is ranked 33rd against the pass and when they know it's coming I think they can stop it especially against A&M who is going to lose the crowd advantage early when they don't light up the scoreboard. So this in hence turns into an ugly game for me as Texas has struggled on offense since the injuries at RB took over. A&M is allowing just 2.50 yards per carry at home so it will be up to Texas QB's to make the noise and that's a scary proposition that I don't think Mac Brown will explore very often making this a defensive battle. I'm not sold on the young offensive line of A&M that's allowed just 7 sacks. They've faced almost zero pass rush this year with opponents ranking 119th, 88th, 105th, 93rd, 112th and 90th in their wins. Texas gets very good push up front and has gotten better as the season has worn on. More on the under if Texas decides they want to get into a shoot out - A&M is #1 in the nation in sacks. So that's not a very good idea, yet what I find odd is they are 118th in pass defense. Teams drop back so much on them they are tallying up the sacks and also they really haven't had teams try to run on them to the extent that Texas is about to. I think Texas can wear their defense down and take advantage in the second half cruising to possibly an outright victory. The Under is 5-2-1 the last 8 meetings at TX A&M.

Okl St +1.5 (3.3* play)

Ohio -8.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) I normally love the under dog in these type of match ups, but Miami Ohio just came off a deflating loss to Western Michigan a week ago and they are out of the MAC race and their season is over with 7 losses. No bowl game or magic carpet ride like last season. I think it will be a challenge to get up against an Ohio team that has dominated them going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings 3 of the last 4 had a spread of a field goal or less and in those games Ohio has won by an average of 17 points. Offensively Miami Ohio can pass the ball but they are dead last in the nation in running ranked 120th in yardage and that

Texas- San Antonio -3.5 (4.4* POD)
This is a team that went on quite the role at the right time last year winning 6 in a row and then winning in the four play in game to get to face off against Ohio State.

Bowling Green -4 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I like the speed and athleticism of BG over Austin Peay who is just 23-48-6 ATS in their last 77 non conference games. While Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite. This is a team that only lost to Georgia by 9 and if they did not get off to a slow start would have been in that game. Austin Peay is even worse starting off in games and I believe Bowling Green gets to the FT line a ton tonight.

Dolphins -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Dolphins, Matt Moore has been on fire 62.4% of his passes and so have the Dolphins and their defense which has recorded 8 sacks in their last 2 games and they are shutting down opposing teams running games too, ranked 10th in run defense. Look for Fred Jackson to struggle again on Sunday and for Fitzpatrick to also struggle throwing the ball. Bills season really did a flip once they lost Kyle Williams their NT on defense for the season. This team has reverted to last year's team that struggled stopping the run and right now the Dolphins are finding balance with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Bush is off 242 yards rushing the last 3 weeks and he continues that success this week. On the otherside the Dolphins defense is playing as good as any in the league right now and Fitzpatrick has 5 interceptions in his last two games now he's without his starting Center Eric Pears who is out. Bills are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog .5 to 3pts.

Hawaii +13.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Gonzaga returns three starters and many figure they'll be better than last year as they came on late, but they did lose their best player in Steven Gray and have 5 freshmen that will be in rotation. To me that's too much inexperience and Hawaii comes into this game with 7 returners including their top scorer in Arizona transfer Zane Johnson. They also mix in athletic post players in Joaquim, and Justin Thomas and recruited the star from NY in Shaquile Stokes to run the point. They have all the ingredients to make some noise this year. Hawaii is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a winning team and Gonzaga is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. I think Hawaii has a chance to win this game outright as they look ahead to their next few games against Notre Dame, Illinois and Michigan State.

Rutgers +3 (5.5* NCAAF POD) This is Rutgers game to lose as the the Bearcats come off an emotional loss because not only did they lose to West Virginia their rival, but they lost their QB Zach Collaros to a broken ankle. Look for Rutgers to have a lot of revenge for the beat down's they got from Cinci the last few years. Now that Collaros is not there as he threw for 366 yards a year ago. Rutgers defense is the real deal any how and a much improved unit from a year ago. They should be able to come up and stop Isiah Peed. Cinci is great at stopping the run and are ranked #2 in the nation and leads the nation in tackles for loss, but Rutgers doesn't run the ball anyway they've been passing it behind Chas Dodd who had 4 TD and 300+ yards a year ago vs. Cinci and he goes up against their 115th ranked pass defense. Rutgers has the receivers to give them all kinds of issues again including Mohamed Sanu and Mark Harrisson. Harrisson had 240 yards receiving a year ago in the loss. Rutgers defense should put up a better game they are #1 in the Big East in takeaways now facing an inexperienced QB in Munchie Legaux. Rutgers averages 4.5 sacks per home game and although Munchie looked good in relief he faces a much more challenging test knowing he's the starter. Cinci with Collaros were only converting 36.84% on third down on the road and Rutgers defense allowing just 31.8% conversions at home. Again both teams can stop the run this comes down to who can pass better and at home Rutgers has proven they can get to the QB and the newbie Munchie won't have success as Rutgers is holding opponents to 52.5% completions and 9 interceptions at home 53.7% and 16 overall while the Bearcats have allowed 65.2% to opposing QB's. The dog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Cinci is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 in November.

Bama -2 4.4* play

Iowa State +28 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Iowa +2250 (1* play) First off I feel Iowa State matches up really well with Oklahoma St in the fact that they can run the ball and they can defend the pass those are the two things they do best on offense and defense and we will get into it in more detail, but Iowa State has an extra 7 days and they are fighting for bowl eligibility right now and Oklahoma State as 4 TD favorites have to be looking past this game to Oklahoma. Oklahoma was 28 point favorites to Texas Tech and lost so why can't Iowa State take down Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State is ranked 101st in yards allowed this year. It's all about QB play of Jared Barnett who is averaging 5.24 yards per carry. Oklahoma State had all kinds of issues with the trio of dual threat QB's they've faced this year in Kansas Sate Collin Klein, James Franklin, Missouri and Robert Griffin of Baylor. Another key to Oklahoma's season has been forcing turnovers and they have forced a lot. Iowa State has the tendency to be careless but over their last 3 games they have gotten much better and I think the extra prep has only helped them prepare for this. Also Iowa State's defense which has allowed just 12 passing TD's all season has held their last 3 opponents to 27.9% conversions on 3rd downs. Overall 36% at home and their Red Zone defense goes right along with that as they have allowed just 8 TD on red zone appearances at home this year in 21 attempts for just 38%. IF Oklahoma State gets stopped and they aren't overly impressive in the red zone just 60% touchdowns on the road and 64% in conference play then I think Iowa State will easily cover this spread. This spread is all about the hype of Oklahoma State can they handle the pressure when they are the hunted?

Arizona -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I actually think we have value here even though the line opened up at pk and moved to -2.5. Arizona is 3-0 SU, but 0-3 ATS, and St. Johns has played three teams that just are not very good and they return 1 player from last year's team that went to the tournament. They have quality players they recruited that won't be joining the team right away. I think the fact that St John's was trailing in 2 of their 3 games this year tells the story especially when they were down vs. William and Mary 33-26, and Lehigh 43-33 before coming back in the 2nd half. That won't fly vs. a very athletic Arizona team. Arizona has also even played well at MSG.

NYJ/DEN U40.5 (4.4* NFL POD) This is a dangerous game for the Jets short rest traveling after an emotional loss, basically I think their defense does show up. The Jets are the best in pass defense in this league if you take out Tom Brady and they have the best corner while the Broncos really do not have any weapons at receiver and Tim Tebow is back there throwing. This should be a lot of running tonight as it is the Jets weakness, but they can crowd the box like no other with man to man on the outside. Even last week the Broncos had just 10 points through 3+ quarters vs. the Chiefs and the Jets are much better on defense. On the other side I see the Jets going back to ground and pound it's evident Rex Ryan is frustrated with the offense and although LT is out they activiated Billal Powell. The Jets had McKnight, but now with Powell they can really concentrate on the run. I expect the Jets to struggle a bit on offense as well and this game should fly by with lots of running.

UNC +10.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) 3 of the last 4 match ups in this rivalry have been decided by a TD or less. Last year UNC fell victim of turnovers by their offense as TY Yates threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech to me is not the same and they are really banged up on defense and UNC has a balanced offense that Virginia Tech has not faced yet. Bryn Renner is completing 71.4 % of his passes this year which is unreal and 19 TD 11 INT on the season and he has weapons to throw to including 6-4 SR Dwight Jones who has 63 receptions and 8 TD's. UNC also features a talented freshmen running the ball in 5.44 ypc this year 3rd in the ACC in total yards. On the other side we know what Virginia Tech is going to do, run the ball and UNC has the talent to stop it as they have the better defensive line in this one. They held Clemson to 2.14 and Miami to 1.63 yards two solid running teams. I think Virginia Tech may be looking ahead here too as they win here and win against rival Virginia next week and they'll get a rematch against Clemson which they desperately want after losing 23-3. UNC scored 38 points on Clemson so that should tell you all you need to know about UNC's capabilities here. Now there are distractions, but the extra 5 days to prepare and the revenge after last year's loss to a much more talented Virginia Tech team which they led at half time 10-9. People forget Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke 14-10. Logan Thomas was impressive last week but now we'll see what he can do against a team that is much more talented in the front 7 than Georgia Tech who looked to have been in control in that game until the personal foul on defense for Georgia Tech. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog 10.5+ and Vtech is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Long Beach State +13.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Pitt has the makings of a national title contender, but they return just two starters, and may struggle early. For instance they trailed Rider by 6 in the 2nd half in their last game. Meanwhile Long Beach State returns 81% of their scoring and 4 experienced starters including Point Guard Casper Ware who was the Big West player of the year and defensive player of the year. Along with the experience they add a JUCO transfer in James Ennis at 6-8 he's a versatile player that should give the Panthers troubles he averaged 20.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5 assists a year ago. This is the same team that went 22-12 last year and lost by just 5 at North Carolina year ago. Pitt is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite 13+.

Western Mich +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Miami Ohio is now facing a completely different style offense than they did a week ago vs. Temple who loves to pound the rock. This week they face a high flight offense that is just plain and simply clicking. Alex Carder to Jordan White is a dynamic duo going back to last year. They are only dogs because of their 1-5 road record, but honestly their 5 losses are all to quality bowl teams in Uconn, Michigan, Illinois, and the MAC's two best, Northern Illinois, Toledo and a very improved Eastern Michigan team. Miami Ohio is last in the league in running the ball and that's Western Mich's weakness that we won't ever see. They are just averaging 2.38 ypc and Western Michigan's defense has an extra day to prepare to put their secondary in the right position. I think the swagger of this defense comes back against a one dimensional offense in Miami Ohio as they look to win out to get into a bowl game. Zac Dysert is very turnover prone and his offensive line afforded him little protection as he was sacked 7 times vs. Temple. Western Mich is also just better on 3rd down as they are converting 48.28% on third down in conference play and their defense is allowing 40%. While Miami Ohio converting just 37% and allowing 39.73% at home. Vs. two Passing teams the only passing teams on the schedule in Toledo and Cinci they gave up 44% and 50% 3rd down conversions. This will be a key tonight in what should be another entertaining MAC match up.

NILL -17 -120 buy 1/2 Buy the half here, but I don't think you'll need it as Northern Illinois comes in red hot right now off 45 and 63 point performances and they face a defense ranked 118th in total defense. This is the same defense that gave up 42 points to Temple which has just one way to beat you. Northern Illinois can beat them through the air and on the ground and on special teams. Chandler Harnish is just competing at a different level right now and he should have his way at home against this team. Especially if Temple's Chester Stewart can throw 10-13 for 160 yards on the road vs. Ball State. I liked what I saw from Northern Illinois defense last week and they can get sacks at home 14 in just 4 home games and I expect that to be a big reason why they cover this large spread. Add in that they have held opponents to 31% 3rd down conversions in conference games and 40% overall while they are 64.8% at home in converting 3rd downs and there is a real reason to believe this spread is too low. How can Ball State even get off the field as they are allowing conference opponents to convert on 59.55% of their 3rd downs and they have allowed a 172 QB rating in conference play and now they face one of the conference best QB's. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run and they aren't even 100% healthy as they've held 6 different starters out of practice recently. Expect Northern Illinois to score into the 40's for sure and probably the 50's as their defense continues to improve on last week's performance when they held a better offensive Bowling Green to 90 yards and 9 points in the 2nd half.

Chiefs -3 (5.5* NFL POD) Last week we had the Dolphins out right against this team, but that was mainly due to the Chiefs coming off a big win on Monday Night and the Dolphins were over due to end their winless ways. The Dolphins dominated that game for 4 quarters and it was evident that the Chiefs were A. not prepared, and B. not ready physically. Chiefs coach Todd Haley even admitted that they worked on stuff a little too much following a Monday game and I think now this team will be rested and ready to go against a Broncos team that is over achieving. I love Tim Tebow, but I do believe that the option attack just will not sustain in the NFL. Now it's looked pretty good, but the tape is out on Tim Tebow. Make him throw outside the numbers and although Tebow 2-0 on the road is very impressive I see him falling to the Chiefs today. This is coming from someone who is not critical of Tebow I think he can play in this league but he has a long way to go. Force Tebow to throw outside and you win this game and the Chiefs definitely have the talent to do this. Denver is also just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 30 + points in previous game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.

Missouri +1.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) They must be the best 4-5 team in the league. Missouri is great after allowing 40+ points per game in previous game coming back to go 21-5 ATS. This is a team that could easily be 6-3 and then we

Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They

Raiders +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
Both teams should get conservative in this game because their inabilities to stop the run both are struggling and also both Qb

Georgia Tech +1 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love it, both teams have extra preparation and that means more to Georgia Tech who will get healthy on their offensive line and at linebacker. Both teams will try to establish the run and I believe Georgia Tech will be plenty successful as they ran for over 300 yards vs. a good Clemson team and last year vs. Virginia Tech they ran for 346 yards and are even better this year and Virginia Tech is not as good as last year and seem to be panicking moving players around on defense as many as 5 position changes. That

MIA OH +13 (4.4* NCAAF POD)+420 1* BONUS
If Miami OH can get passed this game I am confident they can lock up the MAC East. They only trail Ohio and the returning MAC Champions have pretty much everyone they had a year ago so there is no doubt they can win this game and 13 points is a lot in a game that is critical to both teams. For one Miami Ohio is a little banged up and playing their 3rd game in 11 days, However, Temple is banged up to I doubt their star RB Bernard Pierce will start and last year without them this same Miami Ohio defense held Temple to 2.5 yards per carry and 215 total yards. The defense has picked it up the last few games allowing 0 TD

Bowling Green +6
I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green

Bears +9 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see what reason the Eagles are this big of favorites. They clearly dominated Dallas last week, but I really feel that was not an indication of things to come. They were off a bye and as we all know Andy Reid is undefeated off a bye. Speaking of byes, the Bears are coming off a bye and this is a critical game because it could be a tie breaker that separates these two teams from the playoffs later in the season. For the Bears they are playing better and it's because they have a balanced offense and Cutler has been sacked just 3 times in the last 3 games. Can he continue that success? As long as they continue to feed Matt Forte I think they will. Vick has not played that well vs. the Bears in his career he's 0-3 as a starter and has a 76 rating and has been sacked 15 times in 5 games vs. Chicago. I look for the Bears to be in this game because of their defense, and special teams and ability to run the ball vs. the Eagles suspect defense. The last 4 games in this match up have been decided 3, 4, 4, and 5 points. Eagles do not deserve this much respect in what is a match up between two close teams in overall talent.

Titans -2 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the way the Bengals have played thus far, but honestly who have they beaten? They are ranked 4th in total defense but to me they are beatable defending the pass and I think Hasselback will have a good game at home. Bengals despite winning last week were lucky to win on the road and it won't happen again this week. The QB's they have faced so far this season are Travaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Blake Gabbert, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, and McCoy. Add in Fitzpatrick at home where they came from behind and I'm not very impressed with their 9th ranked pass defense. Bengals have the Ravens and Steelers coming up on the schedule so I think they lose focus a little while the Titans are 3-1 at home and should have a better idea moving the ball by playing Javon Ringer at RB more. Chris Johnson really put them behind this season and the Titans defense is under rated they are ranked 11th in scoring defense. I think the Bengals will have issues moving the ball and scoring TD's.

Dolphins +4.5 (4.4* PLAY); Dolphins +190 (1* bonus) Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games. They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.

FLINT -2.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years. Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change. The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game

Kent State -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
So we are backing Kent for the second week in a row. I thought their offense made major strides a week ago after a bye week where HC Darrell Hazell was able to shift the offensive line around.

UCF -1 5* NCAAF POD

I love the Knights here at home on Thursday night in what Sr. leadership is calling their

Ohio +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Ohio + Love Ohio here first of all Temple struggles on defense when they can not pin their ears back and go after either a one dimensional running or one dimensional passing attack. At this point Ohio can do both on offense and are just as bit as good on defense as Temple is. Ohio is a balanced offense they can pass with Tettleton and run as always. Temple has faced one team like that and it was Toledo who put up 36 points on them. Ohio has a much deeper more talented defense than Toledo and they are also home with their new black out jerseys on national television. Bernard Pierce is the best player on the field, and Temple has him, but he has not been practicing the last two weeks. Temple had a hard time containing WR Paige from Toledo and should have an even tougher challenge with Lavonn Brazil who will be playing in the NFL next year.

Northern Illinois +9 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Toledo certainly wants revenge from last year's 65-30 laugher vs. Northern Illinois, but I'm not so sure they'll get it. Northern Illinois is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 on turf and they rushed for over 400 yards vs. Toledo last year. Toledo has played well against the run, but partially because they have not faced a dual threat QB or a team that can do both pass and run. Their 4 conference opponents have either been good at one of the other and all 4 struggle to score points. Facing Northern Illinois at home will be a different game as Northern Illinois can throw with Chandler Harnish and they are one of the best teams in the country in running the ball ranked 11th. Unlike Temple who can not throw a lick, Harnish has two 300 yards passing days and Toledo can give up a bunch as they have allowed 295 yards passing per game at home and a 151 QB rating. Harnish does not turn the ball over and is completing 63% of his passes and 50.88% of third downs. When I look at this game I wonder if Toledo can get into third and manageable plays because they just are not as good on 3rd down as Northern Illinois and don't have as much balance. Also on defense Toledo has forced 19 turnovers that's been this teams strength, but they have not been as good as Northern Illinois in creating negative plays. Look for Northern Illinois to force more 3rd and longs.

Chiefs +3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Battle 1st TD +500 (1* play) Love the Chiefs here the Chargers looked awful a week ago late in the game vs. the Jets defense and the Chiefs have the secondary to give the Chargers issues. The Chiefs have really turned it around and they are allowing 40 yards less per game at home than on the road and 26 yards less over their last 3 games. They lost 17-20 in San Diego last time out in a close game, but penalties and missed opportunities were the difference in that game. The Chiefs team really came together and Arrowhead is not an easy place to play. I think it will be rocking tonight on Halloween and the Chiefs will get a win to force a 3 way tie on top of the division.

Patriots -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare and he rarely loses going 9-2 in his coaching career. Last year he beat the jets 45-3. Patriots should be hungry vs. the Steelers and Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career vs. the Steelers with 14 TD 3 INT and 286 yards/game. Steelers #2 ranking in total defense to me is not telling us the full story as the Steelers have faced just one offense all year in the Houston Texans. Brady and the Patriots have the #1 overall offense and they should be able to runt he ball against a suspect Steelers run defense that's not as good as years past. The Steelers have played the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals the last 3 weeks and they also have wins vs. the Colts (barely) and the Seahawks. I don't see any playoff teams in that mix. Patriots are also off an ATS loss and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss. I thought the bye came at the right time for this team as their offense was scoring less and less points. Patriots should re discover themselves against a Steelers defense that's just not as good as years past and the Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Pats get Jered Mayo back on defense and should be able to get pressure on Big Ben as the offensive line for the Steelers is just awful and Big Ben loves holding onto the football and throwing it deep.

Mich State +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I love Mich State even after their big win last week. Mainly because Nebraska to me is not ready for Big Ten competition. For one Mich State beat Wisconsin and Nebraska was dominated by them and they also beat Ohio State who had Nebraska beat until Braxton Miller got hurt and they lost momentum in the 3rd quarter. Mich State forced a better QB that loves to run in Denard Robinson as Mich State won 28-14 in that game holding Denard to 9-24 passing and 18 rushes for just 42 yards. Michigan State is allowing just 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Mich State has been dominant on 3rd down converstions allowed holding opponents to 27.5% in conference play. That will be a huge advantage Saturday when Mich State stops the running game early forcing Taylor Martinez to be a thrower which we are all well aware that's never a good thing and a reason why they can't win this game despite Mich State coming off a huge win. Nebraska is no Nebraska on defense they allow 4.66 yards per carry and they have just 9 sacks, just 1 per game in conference games. While Michigan State can stop the run and they have 19 sacks in 3 conference games. Kirk Cousins is a veteran and should have all day to throw and the running game continues to get better by the day. nebraska is just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite and 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after scoring 40 points in previous game as they played Minnesota last week the Big Ten's worst team. Lastly Nebraska is allowing 80% of conference opponents red zone attempts to be touchdowns and Michigan State is scoring 90% of their red zone attempts in conference play as TD's. Michigan State has also allowed half as many red zone attempts as Nebraska's defense on the year so again I'm going with the defensive team that continues to get better at their weaknesses meanwhile Nebraska continues to show they can not have a balanced offensive attack.

BYU +14 -120 BUY

Cardinals -113 (5.5* MLB POD) Everything changed in this series with that rain delay. Now Carpenter could go Friday night should be interesting and I think the Cardinals will get there with Jaime Garcia on the mound for much of the same reasons that I had him in game #2 which he pitched well enough to win 7 IP 3 H and 0 ER. It took the first time in nearly 30 playoff games that a team leading after the 7th inning lost as Motte blew the save and we lost, but... I love the Cardinals tonight Jaime Garcia should give the Rangers trouble in this cold game. Rangers are not excited for this weather and they have struggled to score more than 4 runs per game vs. LHP in their road games. Before game #2 the Rangers had a .571 OPS vs. LHP in the post season and now they have gotten worse with a .522. Josh Hamilton just is not himself and creates a huge hole in the #3 spot advantage to the Cardinals who will face Colby Lewis who as I mentioned is over rated on the road.. now Lewis had a 3.43 ERA on the road and he faced probably the easiest road starts with 6 vs. the Mariners and A's he faced just 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP and he had a 7.90 ERA in those games. I think the Cardinals are primed to get him out of the game early now having already seen him as he pitched 6.2 IP 6 base runners and 1 ER in game #2. I don't think he'll have the same experience. Cardinals are 35-28 in their last 57 inter league games vs. a rh starter and 16-5 in their last 21 overall games vs. a rH starter at home. They score more than a run more at home vs. RHP than they do vs. LHP and they have a .766 OPS this post season vs. RHP.

Miami -13.5 (4* NCAAF POD)
Yep I

Uconn + 10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

Sure I

Troy +7.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NCAAF POD
Troy is on revenge here returning 16 starters that remember their loss quite well to FIU at the end of last year 52-35. Part of that problem was stopping the run and turning the ball over as they were -3 in turnover margin in that game. I don

Ravens -4 & U45 6 POINT TEASER (4.4* NFL POD)
We saw a complete decrease of TD

TEX/STL O8 (11* MLB POD) Love this play as we have both aces on the mound, but this is still in Texas where runs are not at a premium. Even Carpenter's last start here was not pretty giving up 7 ER in 5 innings a few years back. Right now both teams will rebound after only 4 total runs as we won our under yesterday. The Cardinals are 5-0 this post season following a loss scoring 5, 5, 12, 7, and 16. In the first game they roughed up Wilson and it could have been worse as they left 8 guys on base and Wilson 5.2 IP 3 ER 4 hits 6 walks was not impressive and now he's back at home and the Cardinals are seeing a lefty for the 3rd day in a row. They have too many right handed hitters not to take advantage and score runs today. On the other side of things the Rangers will score runs too as Chris Carpenter is not nearly the pitcher this year on the road that he was at home. Which makes considering how Busch Stadium is, but pitching in Arlington will be a different experience. Napoli hit him hard again in game #1 and I expect the Rangers to do enough damage to make this game interesting that will be turned over to the bullpens when the game is already over the total. Rangers are over 17-5-1 in their last 23 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and they are over 17-6-3 in Wilson's last 26 home starts.

Under 10.5 4.4* play - Rangers -170 2* play Love the under here. Yesterday definitely showed that this park is a hitters park but now it's back to pitching. 10.5 runs to me is too much for a World Series game and I don't think either Manager will be messing around today and they'll go to their bullpens early which is what got them here the great bullpens. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate and the under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 there vs. Rangers, He's also Under 18-7-1 in his last 26 Sunday games. On the flip side I like for the Rangers to win this game. They got their bats going yesterday and they are very familiar with Edwin Jackson the starting line up is .326 average in 98 combined at bats. Holland has been dominant at home 20-6 in his last 26 as a home favorite and the Rangers are 45-22 in their last 71 vs. RH starters.

Bears -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Bears in London. Both teams are on the road and I'm confident in the Bears who continue to fly under the radar because of 3 losses, but as of right now they lost to the three best teams in the NFC in the Packers, Lions, and Saints. They are still the Bears and have better defense than the Bucs who rank in the the bottom of the league 25th in total defense. TB last road game had them losing 3-48 vs. the 49ers another physical defense. The loss before that on the road against the Redskins, a physical defense. I see a trend here I don't think the Bucs can match the physical intensity in this game. They are also without their starting C Jeff Faine which should be a big loss. On the Bears side I like the way J'Marcus Webb played vs. sack leader Jarred Allen. He should have the advantage vs. Clayborn I look for him to continue his progression. I also think he'll have an advantage as their will be more Bears fans in the stadium than Bucs this will be like a home game for them. Special Teams should play a critical role with both defenses dominating the game and that means Devin Hester. I believe Tampa will kick away from him, but that will lead to some mistakes and short punts. on the other side the Bears punter Podlesh is 7th in the league with 40.2 net yards per punt.

Rangers -177 (4.5*MLB POD); Over 9.5 2.2* play I tried to find reasons to take the Cards given these odds I just could not do it. Even Josh Hamilton struggling big time and not being 100% healthy could not move me in that direction. Kyle Lohse has never pitched well in Arlington over his last 4 starts he has a 9.47 ERA and the reason is he's a fly ball pitcher. Despite his good road record this year I don't think he can pitch to win here tonight. On the other side Matt Harrison should give the Cardinals troubles as they have never seen him I think the Rangers can take advantage of that and win this game.

Northwestern +4.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Yes I'm backing Northwestern again. At 2-4 and with some easy games on the docket this team still has a chance to go bowling and have a positive season. This match up could not come at the right time as Penn State's passing game is among the worst in the country. Their QB's are completing 50.9% of their passes and are just not accurate. Northwestern has really struggled to get off the field the last 3 weeks allowing opponents to convert 60% of their 3rd downs, but those opponents were very good on 3rd downs two of the 3 were over 50% on the season and now they get a break with Penn State who is 39% for the season. On the other side of things Northwestern has too much offense for Penn State to win by more than a field goal. Dan Persa is the nation's most accurate passer the same was true last year and since his return this team is converting 54% of his passes. This is the same team that had Michigan and Illinois on the ropes in the 3rd quarter. Penn State barely won at Indiana and Indiana has been god awful and they've been worse on defense ranked 105th in total defense yet Penn State still only scored 16 points. The Penn State offense also lack a go to WR after losing top target Derek Moye again this is a great break for Northwestern that needs a win in the worst way. Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Penn State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Northwestern is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. The secret weapon that many don't know about and it's going to come through in this match up in a huge way is Kain Colter. He's a real weapon started the year at QB he can play WR and wild cat. He's a huge threat in the running game and he'll get touches at QB once again. Okay so many may think Penn State can just run all over Northwestern and keep Persa off the field, well that's not true their defense is holding opponents to 3.59 ypc over the last 3 games against some pretty good rushing offenses in Illinois and Michigan in particular. Penn State's ranked 7th in pass defense but, They have not faced a QB all season long. Please name one? Persa is arguably one of the best QB's in the league and the 7th ranked Penn State pass defense will be exposed. Don't forget Northwestern had a 21-0 lead before Penn State got a TD with 3 seconds left last year at home and that changed momentum of hte game as Penn State won 35-21 outscoring Northwestern 28-0 in the 2nd half. Don't think Northwestern doesn't remember that, and Colter is a big enough of a threat to keep Penn State from stopping Northwestern on 3rd down.

Rutgers +2 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Rutgers +8 U46 2.2* teaser
Love Rutgers tonight. Louisville has a very similar team in that their offense is not very good and their defense is very good, but Rutgers just has more weapons on offense and is building and improving each week. Their defense is also been great leading the nation in takeaways and 2nd in sacks two things that will hurt Louisville tonight as Rutgers avenges last year

Arizona -4 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
The coaching change of Mike Stoops could not have came at a better time.

Cardinals +115 (4.5* MLB POD) We are on the dog again the wrong team is favored here. It's a bad break for the Rangers who just are starting the wrong pitcher in this game. I still think the Rangers will win this series so stay tuned for a series pick after this as the Rangers should be big dogs to come back from a 2-0 deficit. Today it's Jaime Garcia who the Rangers have never even seen. Rangers saw 3 pitchers this year for the first time on the road and they struggled. Garcia is a bigger name than all these three of Zach Britton, Dan Duffy, and Brad Mills who combined pitched 18 innings and have a 2.00 ERA. Garcia is a mess on the road but at home he is a stud for whatever reason. He's got a 9-4 record at home with a 2.55 ERA and during night starts he's also been successful with a 2.95 ERA. Rangers were 3rd in the league vs. LHP in OPS during the regular season, but this post season they have a .561 OPS in 77 AB with a .195 average. Garcia is backed by a solid bullpen as we saw last night and I think the Cardinals just have a huge advantage at home forcing the Rangers to bat a pitcher. Rangers have not played well on the road in interleague play at all and I don't trust their pitcher vs. a good team. Colby Lewis is 7-17 in his last 24 road gs vs. a winning team. Lewis road stats of an ERA 3.43 and a 9-5 record for 17 starts. So it looks on paper like the logical pitching choice since he had a 5.54 ERA at home, but wait a second let's break down the 17 starts because he's had a cake walk. Only 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP has he faced on the road and the Cardinals are ranked 5th in OPS and #1 in the National League in OPS vs. RHP so these stats are relevant. IN those 3 starts he has just 13.1 IP and a 7.90 ERA. His other 14 road starts have been vs. opponents at the bottom of the league in hitting vs. RHP. The average rank is 23rd in OPS vs. RHP over those 14 starts due to facing the Mariners and A's on the road 6 times. The fact of the matter is his road starts are completely misleading. Right now the Cardinals are super hot with the bats .297 with 6.28 runs per 9 in their last 10 games vs. RHP and at home they score nearly 5 runs per 9 vs. RHP so they are a completely different team than they are against LHP where last night they got extremely lucky with their 2 hits that produced 3 RBI as they were both playable balls that should have been outs. Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. RH starters and Garcia is 17-4 in his last 21 vs. a winning team 11-1 at home vs. a winning team. Cardinals go up 2-0 when they had back to Texas.

Rangers +111 (5* MLB POD) I mentioned it in the Cardinals/Brewers series that the Cardinals are just a different team vs. LHP at home especially. Though they're ranked 6th in OPS overall that does not nearly tell the story at home where they are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a LH starter including our win with Randy Wolf. They are scoring just 3.55 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home over a run difference compared to RHP. The main reason is they are ranked 19th in walks vs. LHP on the season. For some reason they are a little more anxious and that could play in big as Wilson weakness is walking hitters. I think he gets them to chase some bad pitches early. Next we look at Chris Carpenter who has a 3.11 ERA in the post season over his 12 GS. Carpenter's history is a little deceiving. A) he has had to go against National League hitters compared to Wilson vs. AL. Also Carpenter's numbers digress a bit as far as K/9 and BB/9 as he is only striking out 5.5/9 and walking nearly 3 guys per 9. He's been lucky with a .264 BABIP and 80.5% LOB in his post season career which suggests an xFIP at 4.06 a run higher than his actual stats. Next thing I look at is who he has faced this year and he's faced only 8 opponents who are in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP, Royals, Brewers, and the Diamondbacks. In those 8 starts he had just 2 quality starts both vs. the Brewers. Overall he has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. The Rangers will be the best hitting team he will face faced as far as hitting vs. RHP as they are #2 in OPS with a .798. Napoli and Young are familiar with Carpenter as they are combined 5-9 with a HR and 4 RBI. Look for the Rangers to continue their hot hitting vs. RHP which has resulted in a .271 average 6.33 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Lastly I also like the Rangers bullpen that has been more impressive down the stretch and plays in a better league. Overall the numbers look similar but the Rangers acquisitions have helped them become a dominant bullpen with Feliz on the back end.

Ark State -3 @ -108 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game comes down to Ryan Alpin in the loss against Florida International last year he threw for just 126 yards, but now it

Brewers -124 (4.5* MLB POD) The Brewers got here by winning at home they had a major league best 57 wins and they are 49-14 in their last 63 as a home favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 Sunday games overall. The pitching match up really should be the bullpens since they have pitched more than the starters and it's been the Cardinals with that edge, but the Brewers had a 1.17 ERA out of their bullpen in September and the Cardinals have pitched a lot out of their bullpen and the Brewers hitters are starting to have more of an idea at the plate. Now let's break down the starters. Marcum has struggled big time, but he's a veteran that still has 3 of 5 quality starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He's dominated Berkman, Furcal, Pujols, Freese and Theriot who are a combined 5 for 48. That's more than half the line up the team collectively have a .227 avg and a .551 OPS. Jackson meanwhile has not enjoyed the same success as the Brewers have 122 AB .295 average and a .870 OPS. His 3 starts at Milwaukee have not been good 11 ER 18.1 IP, 27 hits and 2 walks, he's given up a .301 average to opponents in his road starts this year where he has a 4.76 ERA that's nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA at home. Brewers will force the game 7 they are 37-14 in their last 51 vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30.