Falcons -3 @ -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Take out the poor 2nd halfs this team has played in back to back weeks and they'd have this line at a TD. I think the line is a bit off especially since Matt Ryan has lost only 3 times as a starter at home and two of them against Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are also playing everyone close but I think this is the game they lose by a TD or more and it's also the game the Falcons get back to doing what they do best which is running the ball. Panthers can't stop anyone they are ranked 27th vs. the run and they are giving up TD's not field goals. Luckily CAm Newton has kept them in every game, but the Falcons are a different defense at home and we saw that vs. the Packers for a good portion of that game. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog 3.5 - 10pts and the Falcons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU loss. This team fights adversity well and they have some real leaders on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have started to rush the passer better and protect Matt Ryan better which are two ingredients to success. Lastly the Panthers are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 @ Atlanta.

Rangers -155 (4.5* MLB POD)
I think the Rangers get it done tonight. To me this pitching match up is about the same, but the Tigers have limited at bats vs. Holland and have shown a tendency to struggle vs LHP on the road. Holland takes the ball and although he struggled in the first match up I think he'll rebound tonight and Rangers who are 20-7 in their last 27 following an off day will get the win. The bullpen is going to decide this game and the edge is definitely on the Rangers side as they have an ERA under 2 while the Tigers bullpen has an ERA over 5 in this series. Look for Nelson Cruz to continue to carry the Rangers to the World Series.

Mich St -2 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Michigan again off to a fast start and now getting Top 10 considerations? I think that's a joke, but here they are now facing their in state rival on the road. Michigan is a classic team that dominates out of conference but in conference they struggle 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conf games. They are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team and this line suggests they'd be favorites on a neutral field which I feel is a joke considering how well Mich State's defense has played. Mich State was +160 yards last year at Michigan and they foced Robinson into 3 interceptions that's going to be the key right there. Ya Mich State lost to Notre Dame and Michigan beat them, but Michigan had no business beating Notre Dame and really they were down double digits last week to an under rated Northwestern team. Denard Robinson had his way last week through the air but again he throws way too many turnovers and too many jump balls that he's gotten lucky with especially against Notre Dame. Robinson 9 interceptions on the year are among the worst in the nation and if he tries to take off and run Mich State is solid against the run ranked #3 nationally and they are tested a bit holding a very good Notre Dame running game to only 114 yards. Greg Jones is not a Spartan LB he's off playing in the NFL, but Mich St recruits well especially at LB and their defensive line will allow them to roam free. The standard run game won't work vs. Mich St not with Jerel Worthy anchoring a very good Dline. Now Michigan has been great in the red zone 22 of their 28 RZ tries have been TD's, but Michigan State has only allowed 3 TD in the red zone all year so they can force Michigan into field goal situations meanwhile I'm not sold on Michigan's alleged improved defense. For one they have gotten lucky forcing 12 fumbles. Well Mich State takes care of the ball just 2 fumbles and only 4 total turnovers on the year so you can bet they will win the turnover battle on Saturday. Next Michigan has 11 sacks, but Mich State has allowed just 5 on the year. Kirk Cousins is a very composed QB and experienced vs. Michigan. Dan Persa just threw for 336 yards and Nwestern running game was able elude tackles and get into the end zone. Mich State with an extra week to prepare should be able to get the running game going last year Edwin Baker had 22 carries and 147 yards and he's still there last I checked so is Le'Veon Bell who had 7 carries and 78 yards. Michigan's run defense stats look good but they haven't faced any teams that can run beside San Diego State and Notre Dame which had Wood and Hillman both over 100 yards and 6 yards per carry combined.

Hawaii -5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) This line has moved a little weird and normally I'd have to buy into a home dog in a national spot light playing a team traveling far for the game, but Hawaii comes into this game coming off a break. They have had extra time to prepare and with New Mexico State on deck there is no doubt in my mind they were not looking ahead at their schedule. The line is just 5 points because the last few match ups here have been decided by a TD, but Hawaii has not had a week off to plan. Also San Jose has looked good vs. BYU, UCLA, and Nevada, but all three of those teams don't throw the ball like Hawaii. Last time San Jose played a passing team they lost 57-3. The main issue here is San Jose does not get pressure they have just 3 sacks on the season. Hawaii was able to get a little more healthy on the offensive line that should allow Bryant Moniz time to throw. SJSU is -2 in turnover margin while Hawaii is +1 as Moniz takes care of the ball just 1 interception. Also SJSU is not scoring in the red zone, they have 18 trips with just 7 TD's and 6 FG's. Hawaii has been better on defense in years past and are allowing opponents to convert 37% of the time on 3rd downs which is about where the inconsistent SJSU is converting 38% of their opportunities. That's the difference in the game and the reason I like Hawaii here. Hawaii is 50% on 3rd down for the year and SJSU has allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs 54% in their last 2 games. SJSU does not have the depth at RB to hold onto the ball nor do they have a consistent offense to keep up with Hawaii who is scoring 37.2 ppg while SJSU is allowing 31. Hawaii also has 19 sacks and are ranked 27th in total defense. That should be enough to give San Jose some issues especially with extra prep.

Cardinals -121 (4.5* MLB POD)
As I mentioned in our Brewers pick last night. The Cardinals are a completely different team at home v.s RHP than LHP and we saw it as Randy Wolf dominated. Tonight they get to face a righty in Zack Greinke who also is pitching much poorly on the road than at home as he has a 4.70 ERA with a losing record on the road that's 1.57 higher than his home ERA. Cardinals have plenty of success too including Holliday 5-12 2HR, Berkman 3-9 HR, PUjols 5-18, Jay 3-9 etc. Jaime Garcia is also dominant at home with a 2.63 ERA this year and 4.61 on the road. Luckily he pitches at home in game #5. He's struggled vs. the Brewers in the past but those are all on the road. He's had better success against the big hitters than Greinke has with the Cardinals, as he has held Braun and Fielder to 11-43 with just 1 HR. In his 4 home starts vs. the Brewers he's gone 28 innings allowed just 2 ER good for a 0.64 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Brewers just .235 average and 3.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year and they are 1-5 in their last 6 as a dog while the Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a RH starter 13-3 at home and 10-1 in Garcia's last 11 home starts vs. a winning team.

San Diego St +7.5 -115 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAF POD) SDST +250 1* BONUS Both teams on a short week and that normally means trouble for a team going up against the triple option, but the Aztecs are in Air Force division they are used to the triple option and more importantly they won at Army facing the triple option already this season which was a nice warm up to this game. First of all Air Force is really banged up with the possibility of 5 starters on defense missing this game they are already last in the nation in run defense and they gave up 9.2 yards per carry to Notre Dame and Ronnie Hillman ran for 191 yards vs. them last year. I think both teams come out and run the ball this will shorten the clock and that means a closer game. To me this game also comes down to turnovers and the Aztecs have 10 forced fumbles while the Falcons have -4 turnover margin they have the inability to force turnovers 10 less than the Aztecs and they continue to have problems fumbling the ball. They may run all over San Diego State and allow over 50% 3rd down conversions, but we have seen them do that before and still stay within a TD. I don't think Air Force is the team to blow any team out the way they hold onto the ball. They'd have to be nearly perfect in the red zone and they just haven't been this year. Their red Zone offense is 13 for 18 and I expect them to get stopped for FG like they did when they played TCU as they had 4 FG and 1 TD. On the other side San Diego State has a balanced attack and they have faced a much stronger schedule this year playing vs. Michigan in non conference while Air Force has mixed it up with Tenn St and South Dakota where they gave up nearly 400 yards to each team and over 4 yards per carry. Bottom line the under dog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in the match up and Air Force is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Tigers -155 (4.5* MLB POD) Tigers are good and should have won that game if Miguel Cabrera was not so fat. I never have liked the idea of putting a closer in a non closer role. The game is mental and Valverde could not handle that situation. Looking at his numbers during the season he has an ERA over 5 when he's in a non closer role. He got through the 1st inning but putting him out for the 2nd was a mistake and cost the Tigers the game. Fortunately this is a resillient bunch and Jim Leyland is Mr. Cool and they are 35-16 in their last 51 following a loss and nowt hey have their ace on the mound who has a 1.78 ERA and a 8-1 record during day starts. IN fact Verlander has never been comfortable this post season he's had two rain outs which impacted his one start and I think finnally getting into a regular rhythm and rest will prove to be a huge factor today. CJ Wilson's road records indicate he's an elite pitcher on the road with a 2.31 ERA. A closer look and he has 6 road starts that's 33% of his road starts vs. the Mariners (ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP) and the A's (ranked 28th). Taking his numbers against the top 10 teams he's just a slightly above average pitcher on the road. Actually the Rangers are just 6-13 in their last 19 road games vs. a winning team with Wilson on the mound. Tigers facing another lefty back to back is an advantage when you can see the same angles. They are 51-25 in their last 76 home games vs. a LH starter.

Tigers +113 (4.5* MLB POD) I think we have some great value here today with the Tigers. In our max winner yesterday we mentioned the Rangers struggles to hit on the road vs. what they do at home and now they play a day game where they just did not perform as well as they did during night games. In fact they were just 4 games over .500 during day games while the Tigers were 15. Tigers send Rick Porcello who has not been that great at home this year, but again he's had success vs. the big hitters from Texas, Beltre, Cruz, and Hamilton are a combined 2-15. As a team they have less at bats vs. Porcello than what the Tigers have vs. Harrison (who we will get to in a minute) and I'm much more confident in a home team that has a bullpen advantage at home. Much like Max Scherzer, Porcello's strength is HR's allowed and he gives up less than 1 per 9 innings. He's given up just 1 HR to the Rangers in 51 AB so I think that will benefit him on Wednesday. More importantly in this match up is Matt Harrison who has struggled big time in his career vs. the Tigers as he's 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts, 0-3 at Comerica with a 7.03 ERA. That's an extremely high ERA for a pitcher on the road in a pitchers park like Comerica. Lewis had similar struggles here and I think the same is said for Harrisson who the Tigers have really hit hard. Cabrera, Avilla, Inge, Jackson, Raburn are a combined 22 for 48 with 4 HR. I look for Inge to definitely get the start since he's been so successful vs. Harrison and hits lefties better. The Tigers actually hit lefties better at home than they do righties which is important to note as they score 0.53 more runs vs. LHP at home than against RHP. They are already +1.36 runs per 9 at home compared with the Rangers on the road so I see it as a pretty good edge. Lastly Harrisson has a 2.99 ERA on the road and that's what's pushing this line this way as most bettors are looking at Porcello's struggles at home and Harrisson's success on the road, but a closer look and he has just 4 Top 10 opponents ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP of his 15 road starts and the other 11 are a combined average rank of 23. So he's had an easy road here while Porcello has 14 home starts, smaller sample size and he's faced 5 Top 10 teams at home and his other 9 starts are an average 21st. He's had some really bad starts here that have really inflated his record while Harrisson struggled vs. the top 10 teams including the Tigers 6 IP 4 ER last time here. Tigers are 48-20 in their last 68 home vs. a winning team, and 51-24 in their last 75 home games vs. LH starter. They are also 17-4 at home vs. the Rangers

Tigers -132 (5.5* MLB POD) Colby Lewis has very good stats on the road this year so you'd wonder why I have such a large play on this game. Well looking at his game log I realized something and also remembered what division he pitches in. For one he pitches in the NL West the bulk of his road starts are facing the Angels, A's, and Mariners who have a league ranking in OPS vs. RHP ranked 19th, 24th, and 29th. his 3.43 ERA on the road is not nearly as good as it appears. He had just 2 road starts vs. an opponent over 17 road starts this year inside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP. Those three were the Red Sox, and Tigers, and he combines for 7.1 IP and 8 ER so it's clear to me if he's facing a winning team on the road he struggles and that's exactly the truth as the Rangers are just 7-16 in his last 23 road starts vs. a winning team. He had a very easy road to this point and he has not pitched well vs. the Tigers on the road. In his last two starts in Texas he has just 11 IP, 2.18 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA. In his 5 career starts vs. the Tigers he's got a 7.76 ERA in 2 years. The main 8 guys who will be in the line up on Tuesday Jackson/Young/Santiago/Raburn/Peralta/Cabrera/Martinez/Avilla are a combined 31-82 with a .378 average vs. Lewis. Collectively the Tigers have 150 AB a .340 average and .901 OPS vs. Lewis and the Tigers are a very good home hitting team especially vs. RHP. They've had to face lefties in both games in this series facing a lefty makes it that much harder to pitch around Cabrera as Victor Martinez is much better vs. RHP .337 average on the year he's 5-11 vs. Lewis and was the best regular season hitter with RISP a stat they have struggled in the last couple games leaving 22 hitters on base. one would think the Rangers could just out score the Tigers again right? Well the Rangers are a completely different team on the road. They have the #1 OPS at home with a .860 but on the road just .740 which is still pretty good, but makes them far less dangerous. Add in the fact that they'll have to face Doug Fister and I'm confident the Tigers get the win. Fister had a 2.99 ERA at home this year and in his lone start vs. Texas with the Tigers at home he had 7 IP 8 hits and 2 ER. 3 of his 6 career starts have been dominant starts. Fister is a very bad match up for the Rangers who love to hit the long ball he's given up just .46 HR/9 ranked 4th in the league and he's only given up 1 HR in his home starts in Detroit. Fister also has 8 straight starts of 1 ER or less and the Rangers are a combined .268 wit a .679 OPS not nearly the success that the Tigers have against Lewis. Tigers will be happy to face the righty they are 35-16in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 40-15 in their last 55 as favorites. Last few points here for your and my confidence.. Lewis has gotten by and has been a bit lucky in my opinion because he's faced terrible hitting teams on the road for the majority. His BABIP is .262 well below the league average and it's considered lucky. He faces the Tigers who have a .318 BABIP and since Lewis is not a strike out pitcher this could be a bad mix for Lewis against a team that already has success. The Rangers bullpen has been great but they pitched 8 1/3 innings tonight when their starter could not get past the 3rd inning this is a huge advantage for the Tigers moving forward because it's been a strength that can now turn into a weakness for the Rangers.

Lions -6.6 (4.4* NFL POD) This seems like a lot of points for an unproven Lions team. However, I'm buying in they've had 3 of their 4 games on the road and they've shown they can come back from any defecit, and they have made timely turnovers and put major pressure on QB's. IF they can stop the run early this game is going to be a disaster for Jay Cutler. Lions also get Nick Fairley to make his debut on an already deep defensive line that should help improve the run defense as well as get more pressure on Cutler which won't turn into anything positive. It's been a long time since Monday night game and the Lions are pointing to this game to show they are for real. I believe it's the reason they came out flat against the Cowboys before recovering and showing their true talent in the 2nd half. I don't care that they can't run the ball the Bears on the road are a different team than they are at home especially defensively as they'll be on a fast carpet rather than the torn up field of Chicago. Bears are 31st in total defense and they've been equally as bad vs. the run and pass. Look for the Lions not to mess around early in this game and for them to get up early. They are 7th in points allowed and the Bears have been ineffective in the red zone. Lions also have double revenge going here they lost twice including 24-20 at home but that was with Drew Stanton at QB and Cutler throwing 21-26 for a TD and 0 interceptions. I think Cutler will have a few mistakes tonight that will help cover our TD spread on Monday night leading to the Lions 5-0 start!

Cardinals +128 (4* MLB POD) We go with the resilient Cardinals to tie this heated rivalry game up. I just think the Cardinals match up very well with the Brewers and this is going to be a back and forth series. I'll go with who I think is the better pitcher for this match up on Monday and that would be Edwin Jackson who.. Is 4-0 with a 2.91 ERA during night games since coming to the Cardinals and he has been solid on the road while Marcum has not been good at home which we will get to in a minute. Jackson had one terrible start @ Milwaukee but at the end of August he bounced back at Milwakuee to throw a dominant start actually he had two starts in August where he gave his team a chance to win giving up 3 ER in 13 IP. Now to the reason why I like him in this match up. Well first of all Brewers win by the long ball especially at home, and they are 18th in average vs. RHP on the year yet they are #2 in the national league in HR vs. RHP. Edwin Jackson just does not give up many HR and he's held Braun/Fielder to 5-25 with 0 HR in his career. Jackson only 0.72 HR/9 this year which is good for Top 25 in baseball. Jackson also is the hotter pitcher down the stretch posting a QS in 9 of his last 10 starts going 8-2 while Marcum.. Has been awful in his last 5 starts he's given up 25 ER over 29 innings pitched while giving up 39 hits and 8 walks. He's held the good hitters on the Cardinals in check, but again he's pitching with little confidence eon a mound he has little confidence on as he posted a 4.81 ERA at home and even looking further into the numbers he's actually pitched better during day games where Jackson has pitched better at night games. Cardinals have the advantage there as well vs. RHP they have a .765 OPS Brewers .755, and at night the Cardinals are also better hitters .796 OPS and Milwaukee .751. Basically in this match up the Brewers have two advantages home field and the bullpen. I still think the Cardinals bullpen is solid, and though the Brewers have been great at home they have not been great at home when Marcum pitches and Marcum has shown he does not pitch well vs. good teams just 2-8 in his last 10 vs. a winning team while the Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 as a road dog and 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a RH starter.

Bengals -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Yes I'm backing the Bengals on our play of the day once again. They've shown they can put points up on the road and as bad as Andy Dalton was last week int he 1st half he's a cool customer coming back in the 2nd half with 11/16 in leading his team back vs. the Bills. The Bengals have the #1 total defense and that defense is for real they are 7th in run defense and they'll have to keep Maurice Jones Drew in check in force the rookie Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has not impressed me and he goes up against rookie Dalton who just has more weapons in the passing game with Greshem and Green. That was what we saw in the 2nd half and I think it continues on Sunday here. The 3rd option of Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell have potential too. Jaguars just do not have enough offense in this game and the Bengals should win this game as the Jaguars come off a game where they gave up 500+ yards to the Saints. Look for the Bengals to get their first interception today and for the running game to continue it's success as well.

Tigers +100 (4.5* MLB POD) I love the Tigers here as they got their ace on the mound who is 14-2 on the road this year with a 2.48 ERA and in 3 career starts in Texas he has26K's to 4 walks and a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. The Rangers starting line up has just a .224 average vs. him in 138 AB. He's dominated this team and it's no coincidence that the Tigers are 6-1 in his 7 starts vs. the Rangers. They are also 50-22 in his last 72 overall starts and 21-6 in their last 27 vs. a winning team while the Rangers go with their ace CJ Wilson. I don't have as much confidence in Wilson despite having good numbers with the starting line up vs. the Tigers that was mostly in relief. His one start he allowed 4 ER in 6.2 IP while allowing 10 batters to reach base. Wilson also mentioned he struggled in his first start vs. Tampa because he had extra time off and now he's 2-6 in his last 8 with 7 or more days of rest which he'll be on here today. I expect him to struggle against a Tigers line up that's hitting .287 with 6.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games and they are 5th overall with a .783 OPS vs. LHP and have a .281 average on the season. Many think the Rangers have the bullpen advantage but the Tigers have a 3.90 ERA out of bullpen on the road while the Tigers post a 4.57 at home partially due to it being a hitters park, but the Tigers have Valverde closing games and he has not blown a save all year long.

Ohio State +11.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); OSU +400 (1.5* PLAY) I remember this story isn't it so similar. A team with a solid defense loses at home and then goes on the road as a double digit favorite against a one dimensional offense? That was Texas losing to Oklahoma on their way to play Nebraska as a +10 dog. The result was a winner for us and an outright Texas victory 20-13, then Texas folded. I think Ohio State can have a similar result on Saturday night. First thing first Nebraska's offense is absolutely one dimensional and Ohio State has seen very similar type of approaches from Michigan and at least Denard Robinson is a threat to throw the ball. Taylor Martinez is absolutely not a threat throwing 5 interceptions and barely completing 50% of his passes. The public is pounding Nebraska after their terrible offensive performance vs. Michigan STate, but Mich State is quietly leading the nation in total defense and Ohio State now looks to start a new QB which could have a big impact on this game. It's also not like Nebraska's defense is the same they can be beat in the secondary with 3 new starters and that should open things up a bit for the running game of Ohio State, but it will be the defense that carries this team as they are 23rd vs. the run 13th in total offense and 11th in points allowed. I don't see what Nebraska has done to warrant being a double digit favorite as they lost at Wisconsin 17-48. I know Ohio State's offense has been awful, but they get an NFL caliber tackle back this week in Mike Adams and that should help. Despite all the issues Ohio State is still +4 turnover margin and they forced a very good experienced QB in Kirk Cousins into 3 turnovers. Ohio State has allowed just 10 possessions in the red zone this year that will mean that Nebraska gets there only twice in this game yet they are double digit favorites? I don't see it in a game they will be most likely negative in turnover margin and the clock should be ticking with both teams running the ball a lot. Ohio Sate is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team, 20-7-1 ATS following a SU loss, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Nebraska got a nice welcome to the Big Ten last week vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 10.5+ and is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of 10.5+ they don't want to play aggressively and score a ton of points when they get up they sit on that clock and that provides us nice value for a cover.

Brewers -150 (4.5* MLB POD) Brewers were one of the best home teams and this year is game is no different. I expect them to bounce back from losing two straight in great fashion behind Yovani Gallardo who in 6 career starts vs. the Dbacks has a 1.18 ERA including a 1.28 ERA in 3 starts this year. Milwaukee is 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. RH starter and they are 49-18 in their last 67 home games. Kennedy's two starts at Milwaukee he's given up 8 ER 17 base runners in 12.2 IP in two road starts this year. Expect the Brewers in front of a crazy crowd to get the W on Friday.

Oregon -23.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
I like Oregon here despite both teams having extra rest and time to prepare for each other.

Yankees -157 (5.5* MLB POD) Well the Yankees really put themselves in a great spot. I put money down before Game #3 on the Tigers to win the series and I felt good with AJ on the mound yesterday, but then the Curtis Granderson catch changed the entire out come of this series. Yankees have CC available in the bullpen and a fresh Mariano to get 6 outs and I don't think there is a way for the Yankees to lose this game with Ivan Nova on the mound. Nova has been great 8-2 at home and 14-4 with a 3.61 ERA during night starts. He does not seem phased by this kind of spot light and reminds me a lot of Orlando Hernandez. Fister is on the other side and very quietly has been great since coming over from Seattle, but there is a catch. He's struggled vs. the Yankees, Teixera is 3-9 Jeter 4-10, Cano 2-6, Granderson 1-3 with a HR and even Alex Rodriguez showed signs last game of turning it around. collectively the Yankees have 70 AB much more experience than the Tigers have vs. Nova with just 24 AB. Gardner 5-13 and Cano has 8 RBI we mentioned Jeter's success in the series as well. While the Tigers seem to be falling as Austin Jackson is 1-10 in the lead off Avila is 0-12 and Betemit is 0-8 and Miguel Cabrera 0-5 in the last 2 games. A closer look at Fister and of his 17 road starts he's really only had 4 starts against quality opponents. Pitching in the West and the Central really benefits a pitcher while Nova has had a much more challenging road to get to where he is. IN those 4 starts on the road at Boston, Detroit, Toronto and New York he has struggled with the exception of an early start in Boston. He did not pitch well in game #1 in relief allowing 9 base runners in 4.2 IP and giving up 6 ER. At home the Yankees are scoring 1.58 more runs per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is 1 run better at home than the Tigers on the road. Yankees have the strength in the bullpen and the Tigers are 10-21 in their last 31 following an off day. Yankees are also 38-16 in their last 54 vs. the Tigers at home.

Dbacks -105 (4* MLB POD); Over 8.5 2* play On paper it looks like a pretty even match up pitching wise, but a futher look in at these two south paws who both have career post season ERA's over 5.00 is that the line up that faces Wolf has more experience and more success than the Brewers do against Joe Saunders. Add in that the Dbacks are home and I'm confident they even up this series tonight. Dbacks projected line up is 29-87 with 5 HR that's .333 average while the line up for MIlwaukee has a .260 average vs. Saunders led by Braun who has 2 HR. Fielder is 0-5. Also people seem to forget just how bad the Brewers were on the road with a .233 average and 3.83 runs per 9 vs. LHP and the Dbacks are +1.20 runs overall 1.05 vs. LHP. Brewers are 11-23 in their last 34 as a road dog while the Dbacks are 48-22 in their last 70 as a home favorite

PHI/STL U7 (4.5* MLB POD); Cardinals +129 (2.5* play) This game absolutely screams pitching for one I like the under as the first half of the game is going to be played in the shadows with the hitters having a very difficult time picking up pitches. Next you look at these two pitchers and both have been great. Jaime Garcia was great down the stretch 2.64 ERA in SEptember and his 15 starts at home he has a 2.55 ERA where he was just a different more confident pitcher. He has the success against the Phillies he's 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA holding them to a .178 average in those games. Victorino, Utley, Rollins, Pence, Polanco, Howard combined are just 10-64. Phillies are just a different team vs. LHP they were 21st w/ .701 OPS vs. LHP this year while the Cardinals were ranked 6th with a .768 OPS so that's one reason why I like the Cardinals in this game though I think it will be low scoring because.. Cole Hamels has been the man for this rotation especially on the road where half of his wins come. He won't have to face Matt Holliday and that has to help the under as he can work around Lance Berkman who is 7-21 vs. him. Though Hamels had a 2.93 ERA on the road this year he gave up 9 HR in September and he had only 3 the other months which is a little red flag, but he has not given up HR to this Cardinals team in his career and Cardinals at home vs LHP are not as good as they are on the road .254 3.74 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Phillies on road .243 3.98 runs per vs. LHP. Jerry Layne is behind the plate and that means strikes. Layne is under 10-3 in his last 13 behind home plate with the Phillies U16-13 in games this year and the CArdinals are 6-0 with Layne behind home plate in his last 3 games. The two starters are under 3-0 in their 3 starts with Layne behind home plate. Phillies are under 40-17-4 in Hamels last 61 starts.

Tigers -122 (4.5* MLB POD) We had the Tigers yesterday and now that this pitching match up shifts to Detroit it jumped a total of 40 points on the line and I"m backing the Tigers because of CC's struggles @ Detroit where he has 3 starts the last 3 years and he's given up 14 ER in 21 IP for a 6.00 ERA. Tigers at home hit lefties hard .280 with 5.73 runs per 9 this year and they are 50-24 in their last 74 vs. a LH starter. Cabrera will be licking his chops as he's 9-16 vs. Sabathia with 2 HR that should open things up for others in the line up who will see pitches so Sabathia can avoid Cabrera. Verlander on the other hand has an easier task in my opinion especially now that they are at home. Arod is a huge liability in that line up and they are going to stick with him he's 0-8 in the series and 4-18 vs. Verlander. Yankees have hit just .204 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and have a 4.84 bullpen ERA. We saw their offense struggles vs. a righty yesterday and it continues against the AL Cy Young winner who is 22-6 in his last 28 home games vs. a winning team.

Colts +10.5 (4* NFL POD) Not a huge play for us tonight, but it's the only one for me. Who are the Bucs to be laying double digit points anyway? They do not out score opponents the offense is ranked 22nd in the league and the defense is 24th. I think Curtis Painter will have a good enough night to keep his team in the game. After all this was the guy the team wanted and he's clearly more capable of running the offense than Kerry Collins. Josh Freeman is good, but he is very much like Ben Roethlisberger he waits for plays to develop and that will provide pass protection which is something they may not be able to do against Mathis and Freeney. I expect just an ugly game Freeman is the hot pick based on what they did last year and I think this line is just way too much. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and they barely got by the Vikings, and struggled with a FAlcons team that has been terrible on the road to start the year. Colts are still believing they can make the playoffs especially since Peyton has yet to be ruled out for the year. Not saying he comes back, but this team is far from throwing in the towel which is what this line is suggesting.

Brewers -160 (5* MLB POD) Love the Brewers they have every advantage in this match up. Greinke is a perfect 15-0 at home this year and they are 20-3 in his last 23 as a favorite and 21-6 in his last 27 gs overall. Home team is 41-17 in umpire Alfonso Marques last 58 Sunday's behind the plate and the Dbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 games with him back there. Milwaukee 41 AB vs. Hudson and they have a .317 average and .919 OPS. Dbacks are 13-40 in their last 53 as a road dog +151-+200. Hudson struggled downt he stretch his last 2 starts vs. the Dodgers and Pirates. He faces a Brewers team that hit 4 HR off him in two starts both in MIlwaukee where this game is too. Brewers also have a better bullpen if it gets to that so I expect them to win game 2 as well.

Bengals +3.5 buy 1/2 -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Wow, shocker right I'm not backing the Bills like the rest of the world. Guess what the Bengals defense is pretty tough, and I think the difference here is their ability to be strong up front on defense. Bengals defensive line goes about 8 deep and they are good. This is the first defense the Bills will play as they faced 23rd, 28th, and 32nd ranked total defense in the first three weeks. Bengals lost to the Bills a year ago and I think they will be playing on revenge with a shot to win in the end. Bengals are allowing just 18ppg and 88 rush yards for a total of 276.3 yards total. They'll hold the Bills to field goals instead of TD's and I expect Andy Dalton to come back with a big performance today to keep his team in the game all day long. Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog where they always play solid defense and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a dog of .5-3points. I can't really call the Bills lucky, but in reality that's what they've been the ball has bounced their way I don't expect that to take them to 4-0 today.

Rays +112 (4.5* MLB POD) Rays dominated game 1 and we had the under which we would have won if it werent for an error in the 8th, but we move on to Saturday and we are backing this hot team. The Rays just seem to be a better team and they have a pitching advantage. Remember that Texas plays in a hitters park so their offense to me is not as good as it looks on paper. Rays also have to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in fact Shields who takes the mound has faced the 3 best offenses in the AL in Boston, New York and Texas two times a piece in his last 6 starts and he's come out with a 2.23 ERA. Vs. the Rays he has gone 17 innings given up 8 hits and 1 ER. Overall the Rangers just don't hit him the starting line up combined are 24-129 for a .186 average. Derek Holland on the other hand takes the mound vs. the Rays. That's the 2nd start in a row vs. a lefty and the Rays line up just hits lefties better they are in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP with a .749 this season. In their last 10 games they are hitting .278 with 6.81 runs per 9 and 2.90 bullpen ERA

Colorado -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Washington State under their head man Wulff is 1-17 on the road. Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Colorado has played some quality opponents in Hawaii, Cal and Ohio State while Wash State did not play anyone early then they faced their first team with a pulse in San Diego State and got beat giving up over 500 yards and they were sacked 4 times. San Diego State gave up a few weaknesses that Colorado can take advantage of at home in the high altitude. 1st thing is the running game as San Diego State RB Hillman ran for 191 yards. Rodney Stewart from Colorado has the skill to spark this offense. Actually this offense has clicked behind Stewart and QB Tyler Hansen the Sr. is quietly having a quality start to the season with 1150 yards 9 TD and 1 INT vs. some quality opponents. Washington State can not get pressure and they are weak up front which should favor Colorado which will have a balanced attack in this one. Look out for one of the best receivers in the Pac 12 in Paul Richardson for Colorado who has 22 receptions 398 yards. VS. California he had 11 for 284 and has been quiet the last two weeks. I expect him to get back to that success this week. Next advantage is Washington state's weakness up front on their offensive line and it really showed against San Diego State who sacked them 6 times. Colorado is strong up front they are 10th in the nation in sacks and they have gotten 3 or more in each game. This will be an advantage late in the 2nd half I think Colorado can end some late drives. Washington St had high hopes this year behind Jeff Tuel but he got hurt in the first game and although his back up is capable he's not nearly as good and Colorado's secondary is the weakness although it's been a strength so far givin up just 283.5 yards per game 26th nationally. I think that continues the line is low because Wash St is averaging 439.67 yards per game, but Colorado is the best defense they have faced all year by a mile and it's on the road in a conference game.

Utah State +8 -115 (4.5* NCAAF POD)I love Utah State as this is a great exposure game for their team and players in what their head coach has said he

U52 4.5* play, pit+8.5/U58 2.2* teaser bonus!
This game I lean towards Pittsburgh and being the home team as an under dog coming off two losses, but I

Rangers -149 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers have their full line up in and the Angels have 5 hitters that have never faced Matt Harrisson in and the 4 hitters that have faced Harrisson are a combined 6-43 so I expect the Rangers who would much rather win clinch home field in the first round and face the Red Sox or Rays for sure. If they lose and the Tigers win then they will have to face the Yankees at Yankee Stadium which is something no team wishes upon themselves. This team has been hitting too .333 average over their last 5 with 7.31 runs per 9 while the Angels are hitting .195 over their last 5. Texas bullpen 2.48 ERA over their last 10 compared to the Angels 4.76. Angels were alive a week ago but now obviously not into it and with all the young players going up against a Rangers team that is motivated to secure the home field advantage in the first round as they are 53-29 at home and they are 13-2 run right now scoring 6.3 runs per game.

Orioles +150 (4* MLB POD) Red Sox are pressing right now and Buck Schowalter has this team motivated to finish strong as he did a year ago. Orioles are hitting 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 vs. LHP which they face tonight in long time ex Oriole Eric Bedard. 3-4,5,6 have a combined 16-42 .381 average and 2HR vs. Bedard and I think this is their world series they are getting pride in knocking a division rival out of the playoffs. On the other side Zach Britton has been solid at home with a 2.71 ERA at home and he is coming off a start with just 78 pitches. Britton has had good starts of late against good teams including the Angels and Yankees at home going 14 IP combined and giving up just 1 ER so I am sure he's excited to continue his quality pitching at home here tonight. Boston hitting just .237 with 0.87 runs per 9 vs. LHP. While the Orioles are hitting .370 and 7.11 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP.

Cowboys -3 (4.4* NFL POD) I had the Redskins in both of their first two games, but now they go on the road and I know the injuries have been a big deal and a reason why the Cowboys are -3 favorites here instead of more, but I think the injuries are over rated at this point. Romo's injury got better not worse from how they were where he led his team on the road against the 49ers and he looked good. Romo usually turns up with a great game when people expect him to struggle. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are still out there even though Austin is now out. It appears Bryant will play and if so I think this offense won't miss Austin a bit. Jason Witten had 10 receptions and a 140 yards in the home win with Jon Kitna at QB. Redskins defense just is not the same on the road as it is at home and I think they'll struggle stopping the Cowboys and on the other side I think we can expect a nightmare performance from Grossman. Though he's looked great first few games he'll have to win this game because the Cowboys are #2 in stopping the run. Cowboy get Terrence Newman back to help their secondary and I think that will help them concentrate on TE Fred Davis.

Phillies -139 (4.5* MLB POD) Going with the Phillies here today. They ended their streak of losses yesterday and ironically it was because their full line up was on the field. Well today they keep that momentum with one of their aces on the mound and their full best line up on the field. Braves have really struggled and they are just 1 game up on the Cardinals feeling the pressure. I expect the Phillies to win this game as they'd much rather face the Cardinals any how, but they also want to get a good vibe going into the playoffs. Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and as we know the Braves struggle vs. LHP as they are 29th with a .644 OPS this year vs. LHP. IN his last 3 starts vs. the Braves he has 24 IP with a 1.50 ERA and a .83 WHIP with 31K's. The braves are scoring just 1.88 runs per 9 over their last 10. I think Lee wants to feel good about an outing going into the post season. With that said he's also 20-4 in his last 24 vs. a winning team and the Phillies are 22-8 in their last 30 as a road favorite. Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 game 1 of a series and 0-6 in their last 6 as a dog. Delgado has pitched well for the Braves, but he has struggled with control which does not bode will vs. the Phillies he's got 10 walks in his last 20 IP and he's faced some weak hitting teams so I don't think he can turn a QS on this kind of pressure.

Dolphins +3 -125 buy 1/2 (5.5* MAX POD) Love the Dolphins and I'd take them straight up, but when your book has them at +2.5 there is no reason not to be smart and buy the half point in my opinion. First of all this Dolphins team is much better than they have played. Starting the season playing the AFC's two best offenses in the Texans and the Patriots was never going to produce good results especially after a shortened off season. Today the Dolphins begin their season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a dog while the Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. This will be a big game for Dolphins rookie Daniel Thomas. Right now the Browns can be run on they have the 24th run defense and they faced Benson and Addai from the Bengals and Colts. Those guys are good, but they are old news and I loved what I saw from Thomas a week ago 18 carries for 107 yards. I really believe he can be the next big thing in the league. Sprinkle in Reggie Bush and I think the Dolphins should have no trouble moving the ball. Dolphins struggled at home vs. the Browns a year ago in a 13-10 defeat, but Henne threw 3 interceptions and that number will clearly go down with a balanced attack and Brandon Marshall who did not play in that game. Also the Dolphins held Hillis in check in that game 18-57 yards 3.1 ypc. Hillis really has not looked good this year and I think we will continue to see more of Hardesty, but not today. Hillis will struggle on the year he has 3.4 ypc vs. the Colts/Bengals. Dolphins run defense is better and their overall defense which is suspect when you look at the numbers is inflated because they faced the Texans and Patriots. Expect the Dolphins to really come out and make a point in this game. Their offense has looked good and their defense won't have a problem with the Browns offense led by McCoy who dinks and dunks down the field behind a passing offense ranked 25th. His 56.9% completion percentage surprises me. I love the Dolphins to win this one.

LSU -5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Don't miss out easily the game of the week and we are confident in LSU's ability to win on the road in hostile environments. This is a rematch of last years 20-14 home victory by LSU and one thing is for sure both teams are different than they are a year ago. In my opinion West Virginia has digressed with Dana Holgorsen so far as the defense just is not the same with this up tempo offense coming off the field much quicker. The defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field in this game because LSU's defense is special. LSU prepared all off season for a spread attack with a special running game and that was not for West Virginia but for Oregon and they dominated that game in a 40-27 victory. Oregon is far better than West Virginia on offense with an elite running game that LSU shut down. West Virginia can not muster any sort of a running game just 79 yards per game. LSU also shut down the prolific Miss St's rushing game last week which was very impressive. West Virginia will go to the passing game and Geno Smith was 14-29 last year vs. LSU and I don't think it will be any prettier despite how explosive the offense has looked because they've been inconsistent. This is the first time they are facing a dominant defense that can get into the backfield. LSU now has 30 tackles for loss already. They'll easily take away the running game and the offense WV is going to run is not built to beat this LSU defense which is littered with speed athleticism and next level talent including a duo in the secondary that is making many forget about Patrick Peterson in Mathieu/Claiborne. My favorite stat is West Virginia's once dominating defense they were 2nd in sacks last year and 2nd in run defense. What happened? They have 1 sack through 3 games and do not seem as dominant as years past and that's the extra time they have spent on the field that's killing them. LSU behind a physical and veteran offensive line are starting to build some rhythm behind Spencer Ware. Jarret Lee is QB this year and I think that's a huge difference. He does not turn the ball over and LSU bone head turnovers seem to be cut down. In the match up they had 3 turnovers and 12 penalties yet they salvaged a win. I'm buying into this LSU team this year I think it comes down to their match up vs. Alabama on whether or not they got to the national championship.

Astros -118 (4.5* MLB POD) Rockies would obviously like to be somewhere else and they have shut down their 3 stars for the rest of the year in Tulo, Cargo, and Helton. JA Happ looks to build on his success since returning from AAA where he has a 2.40 ERA in 5 starts. He's had good starts vs. some of the NL's best including the Phillies and the Reds who are the best hitting team vs. LHP in OPS in the NL and now he gets to face a Rockies team that doesn't have their three best hitters. Hammell starts vs. the Rockies an dhe's been unable to put two quality starts together he is coming off a quality start so we feel he'll digress here today. Hammel over the last 3 years has 74.2 IP in September and a 6.03 ERA so we feel he may be looking towards the off season while the Astros have a lot of young talent that is competing right now trying to make the team for 2012. They are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a losing team and the Rockies are 17-40 in their last 57 as a road dog and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. LH starter. Colorado is also 8-27 in their last 35 at Houston and have a .191 average vs. LHP in their last 10 games while only scoring 2.75 runs pe r9 while the Astros are scoring 5.65 runs per 9 over their last 5 games overall.

Under 44 4.4* pod
And ucf +3 -120 3* bonus
The only reason I

[b]Cincinnati -7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Revenge is a beautiful thing and that

Angels -115 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Angels here tonight with Santana on the mound as this team is still in the playoff race with just 2.5 games in back of the Red Sox who are off today. Santana has dominated the Jays over his last 6 starts he has a 2.25 ERA and I think he's going to bounce back this week. His last 2 starts vs. Toronto he's gone 9 and 8 innings and I think we can expect the same as the Jays have a collective .223 average vs. him. The biggest reason why I like the Angels is the Jays bullpen that has pitched 10 innings in the last 2 games will have to play a big role in tonight's game iwth the young Henderson Alverez who won't go deep in this game. Jays bullpen has an ERA as a 7.63 ERA in their last 10 games. Angels have been hitting well over their last 10 games .304 with 6.33 runs per 9 and they have a 1.57 bullpen era over that period they are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the Jays are 5-13 in their last 18 as a dog.

Royals +110 (4* MLB POD) Love the Royals today. They have been on fire winning 8 of 9 and the Tigers are resting guys right now. Paulino actually had a quality start vs. the Tigers this year when they were at full strength while Scherzer has a 5.33 ERA away and has given up 11 ER in just 8 innings pitched over his last 2 vs. the Royals and he's facing them at the wrong time as the Royals are on fire right now scoring more than 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 with an overall .340 average in their last 10 games while the Tigers vs. RHP are hitting .241 and 3.48 runs per 9. With Scherzer on the mound they are 3-9 in their last 12 as road fav -110 to -150 and they are 5-12 in their last 17 of his road starts vs. a losing team.

Rangers -135 (5* MLB POD) Harden vs. Holland repeat and the Rangers have all kinds of advantages here. Not only Is Oakland last 27th in the league with a .654 OPS vs. LHP, but they can't hit Derek Holland who has a 1.72 ERA in 5 career starts. Holland has 2 starts this year with 16 IP and just 2ER. Rich Harden can not say the same as in his two starts he gave up 9 ER in 9 IP to the Rangers and it could have been worse as 20 base runners reached base in just 9 innings of work. Over his career Kinsler/Hamilton/Moreland?Andrus have hit him hard 12-23. Adrian Beltre who is 2-16 is on a streak right now of 7 HR in 8 games that I think could play a factor here if they pitch to him since he's red hot .405 average over his last 9 games. Michael Young has also had success with a .390 OBP with over 30 at bats vs. Harden in his career. Texas over their last 10 games are hitting .313 vs. RHP while the A's are hitting .205 vs. LHP with just 3.05 runs per 9 while the Rangers are scoring 7.12 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Also the A's bullpen is not as strong as they have a 6.21 bullpen ERA over their last 10. A's are 1-8 in their last 9 as a home dog and 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a LH starter while the Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 in Oakland and have to win as the Angels are breathing down their back and have a series this weekend with them.

Giants/Rams U44.5 (4.4* NFL POD) The stat on the board is the Rams inability to stop the run and the idea the Giants are going to come out and try to runt he ball. Yes they gave up 236 yards to the Eagles, but 97 came from Vick and they held them in check really through 3 quarters until the 4th. They can stop the run better than the pass and the Giants will try to run the ball early and fail and turn to the pass. I think that keeps this total under the mark tonight. Both teams have injuries that pretty much even out and both teams attack the QB and both teams struggled on 3rd down conversations last week they were last in the league in 3rd down conversions after week 1. That won't = points on the board and I think we will see a very ugly game tonight because of that. Eli Manning got sacked 4 times expect him to struggle yet again because Steve Spagnola knows this offense more than anyone when he was on the Giants staff. He'll be really agressive with the blitz packages and they were able to get to Vick pretty regularly and I expect them to be able to do that tonight ending a lot of drives for the Giants keeping this total under. Rams also get Robert Quinn to debut tonight. The Rookie has a lot of talent and should really help this team in the pass rush alongside of Chris Long and James Hall. On the other side expect the Rams to really struggle. Giants get Tuck back tonight and they have been able to stuff the run. Cadillac Williams will get most of the carries with Stephen Jackson's injury. I expect the Rams to attack the Giants in the air at first, but that will result in a lot of pressure on Bradford who I'm not so sure the Rams can protect long enough to find open men. At the end of the day I see a very sloppy game with turnovers not turning into points. I think the defenses will have advantages and I don't think the offenses will try to do too much.

Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD)
Love the Jays behind Ricky Romero who is 8-3 with a 3.01 ERA at home this year and 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA during night starts. Angels line up are a combined 16-67 in their career vs. Romero for a .238 average with just 3 guys having success the rest of the line up is 2-25. Angels are 12-26 in their last 38 road games vs. a LH starter while the Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 when Romero starts and he faces a team that scored 5+ runs in previous game. The Jays are scoring roughlty 6 runs per game vs RHP and they face off against Jerome Williams who I'm just not buying he had two road starts against the A's and Mariners two of the worst hitting teams and he gave up 14 hits and 7 BB in just 11.1 IP that's a WHIP well over 2 and an ERA of 5.56.

Cowboys -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) People need to get off Tony Romo's back. I liked what I heard from him he is a veteran that can forget bad performances at this point. In 4th quarter Romo over his career has 38 TD's to 18 interceptions only throwing an interception every 31 attempts in the 4th quarter so I think the story about him playing clutch is way over hyped. People forget they nearly beat one of the best teams on the road int he Jets. Romo was 23-36 342 yards and that's impressive vs. a very good Jets secondary. Dez Bryant is starting to be the clear #1 and I think he's up for a big day on Sunday. Jason Witten should cause some big match up advantages as well. For the Niners offense we haven't seen much as Ginn Jr took 2 returns back for touch downs that helped him win the game. I still don't trust Alex Smith and I think the Cowboys though they are banged up in the secondary should be able to get away with that with their pass rush as the Niners offensive line is a work in progress. They averaged just 2.7 ypc vs. the Seahawks and the Cowboys were solid at stopping the run against the Jets. Niners are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win and 6-22-3 ATS in their last 31 following a win by more than 14 points.

Rangers RL -125 (4* MLB POD) Angels are breathing down the Rangers backs and I'm backing the Rangers to come back after last night's 4-0 defeat. Colby Lewis will start and in his 2 starts vs. the Mariners who struggle big time to score at home he's been great going 16.2 IP giving up 12 hits and only 3 ER while striking out 19. Seattle has a .185 average over their last 10 games vs. RHP with just 2.40 runs per 9 while the Rangers have dominated left handed pitching scoring 7.31 runs per 9 innings over there last 10 games vs. LHP with a .326 average. Anthony Vasquez has one start so far, but his stats in the minors are alarming to me as he has just a 5.40 K/9 ratio with over 3 BB/9.

Miami OH +5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Miami Ohio as they are coming off a bye after holding a very explosive Missouri Offense to 17 points. Mizzo then went on the road to score 30 points vs. a very fast and athletic AZ State defense. QB Franklin is a dual threat that Miami Ohio kept in line and I don't think they'll have any problem with Minnesota QB MarQueis Gray who is a little bigger, but still should have no issue as this defense is for real that led them to a MAC Championship a year ago led by CB Dayonne Nunley and LB's Wedge and Harris forming the best secondary and linebackers in the MAC.

Minnesota as I said is a mess they just lost at home to New Mexico State and now there may be reason to believe they can bounce back but I don't see that reason facing a tough defense that is coming off a bye week well prepared for this very game after they lost opening weekend. Minnesota's strength is in their run defense and Miami Oh does not like to run the ball QB Zac Dysert is very good and should use his usual short passes for the running game moving the ball up and down the field. If they can finish in the red zone they should win out right. Something they could not do at Missouri, but Minnesota is no Missouri on defense. Dysert also gets his best receiver back this week as Sophmore WR Nick Harwell was suspended for hte first game. He had 64 receptions for 871 yards a year ago. Minnesota can't get the QB and that's dangerous if you give Dysert time as Minnesota was last in sacks in 2010 and so far through two games they have 0 sacks that includes against New Mexico State.. Mia OH is actually 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog and last 4 vs. the Big Ten and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing home record while Minnesota is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Miami Ohio's defense will keep this to a field goal game regardless.

Under 45 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Iowa State put up 44 but it was in OT vs. an Iowa team's defense that's in transition. This is the same team that struggled big time the week before against Northern Iowa. Uconn has had problems themselves on offense they do not know who their QB is and the running game is an obvious thing to stop for Iowa State that is allowing just 3.7 ypc. Uconn is big up front and Lyle McCombs comes in as the #12 rusher, but they have no balance the passing game has been awful and I expect an ugly game here tonight which will point to the under. Iowa State goes up against a very good Huskies defense that quietly had 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss in their loss to Vanderbilt. Iowa State is under 19-7 in their last 26 overall and the Huskies under 22-8 in their last 30 after allowing less than 275 yards in previous game.

Red Sox -136 (4.5* MLB POD) The Sox are starting to feel the pressure and Josh Beckett takes the mound that usually is not a good thing for opponents and I'm backing him here over his last 3 starts vs. the Rays he's gone 24 IP and has absolutely dominated this team giving up just 6 hits and 1 BB and 0 ER. Upton and Zobrist are a combined 7-44 and the Rays overall 194 AB have a .211 average and .587 OPS. While the Sox have had some success vs. Shields who is not as good on the road and is off back to back 120+ outings including one dominant home start vs. the Red Sox in his last start. Ortiz,Pedroia, and Gonzalez are a combined 31-100 with 6 HR that's the 3,4, 5 int he line up which should mean good things for the Sox Friday night at home where they are 70-33 in their last 103 mettings with the Rays. Shields has never bene as good on the road 3.11 ERA this year is his best it's still almost a run from what he's done at home over the last 3 previous years he's had a 5.10 on the road and a 5.16 ERA in September. Rays are 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. the Red Sox and his last 5 starts at Fenway he has a 5.68 ERA. Look for Beckett to control this game he's 10-1 when an opponent scores 5 or more runs in previous game so I'm not worried about how hot the Rays have been

LSU/MISST U51 (4.4* NCAAF POD); LSU -2.5 -125 (3* BONUS) Love LSU and the under in tonight

Cubs+141 (4* MLB POD) I like the Cubs as today's best bet as Randy Wells is flying under the radar big time. He's been great of late going 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA and the Cubs are 6-0 in his last 6 overall starts. In fact he has a 3.60 ERA during his night starts this year and over the last 3 years he's had 28 night starts and has posted a 2.99 ERA. He gave up 6 ER in 7 innings in his home start in early August and that could be another reason for this line, but his previous 7 starts vs. the Cubs he was 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Homer Bailey on the other hand has not been as lucky vs. the Cubs as they have a combined average of .309 and .916 OPS with 4 HR in 59 at bats. Over his last 3 he has a 1.87 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA. Cubs are hitting right now scoring +0.97 runs per 9 overall more than the Reds over the last 10 games and they have a better bullpen ERA too. Reds bullpen is a weakness of this team all year and will likely play an impact tonight as they have a 4.91 ERA over their last 5 games.

Royals -150 (4* MLB POD) The Twins are just beyond bad right now and I like the way Luke Hochevar has been pitching with a 3.32 ERA over his last 3 including a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA over his last 3 home starts vs. some pretty good hitting teams in the Indians, Red Sox and Orioles and now he faces an injured Twins team that is 28th in the league vs. RHP in OPS and 23rd during day games. While the Royals are 9th during day games with a .743 OPS. Twins are 22-31 during day games this year and have a .171 overall average over their last 10 games while scoring just 2.02 runs per 9 and I just don't see that ending here against Hochevar who is 5-1 in his last 6 when favored. Twins are 6-22 in their last 28 vs. RH starter. Last time out he went 7 innings gave up just 3 hits and 1 ER vs. the Twins.

Red Sox -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Red Sox are now in a battle for the Wild Card with the Rays and I expect them to come up big on Tuesday against a pitcher they have always dominated in Brandon Morrow. The odds are where they are because Wakefield is pitching and Morrow has been miles better on the road than home this year. However I'm looking strictly at the numbers and the Blue Jays have 128 AB vs. Wakefield and a .242 average .642 OPS while the Red Sox have 134 AB vs. Morrow a .321 and 1.009 OPS. That's a huge difference and when you add in that the Sox are at home here fighting for the playoffs now I expect Wakefield to come up with a clutch outing. Morrow's last 5 starts vs. the Sox he has a 14.43 ERA and a 2.48 WHIP I don't see how he could go into this match up with any kind of confidence. Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Scutoro combined are 30-64 with 5 HR.

Broncos -3 -120 (4.5* NFL POD) Broncos lost 59-14 last year at home in 1 of 2 games that the Raiders dominated them last year on a combined 98-37. I smell revenge here with the Broncos who were a pass happy team last year. That did not match up well when the Raiders were #2 in the league in getting to the QB and they had an elite secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha. In the home loss Brandon Lloyd who led the league in receiving had just 3 targets as Asomugha just took him out of the game. While the Raiders safeties are solid the corners are a huge question mark with Chris Johnson (16 tackles, 2 INT) and raw rookies DeMarcus Van Dyke, and Chimdi Chekwa. This is going to have a few impacts on this game and this team this year. #1 I guarantee the Raiders will not be in the top 5 in pass defense or sacks like they were a year ago as they ranked #2 in both respectifully. Also look for Kyle Orton to test this team on the edges with speedy receivers. lastly Oakland was 29th vs. the run and the Raiders did not do anything to really change that. John Fox who takes over as the Broncos head coach is a run first type coach and I expect a much more balanced approach from the Broncos this year which should have an impact in week #1. Oakland was tops in 3rd down stops allowing just 34.8% without Asomugha this is going to change. Denver has the edge here and I think they also have the edge in the passing game which they did not a year ago.. Now how do they stop the Raiders on defense because they did give up 98 points a year ago. Enter Von Miller and immediately you improve your defense which was last in the league in sacks a year ago. I think you see him getting to Campbell early and often and playing a huge part in the Broncos win. Denver has won 16 of their last 22 week 1 games and are 11-0 in their last 11 home openers. Oakland has lost 11 straight on Monday night. Lastly Kevin Boss replaced Zach Miller and though Boss was productive he's a new player and not as good as Miller. It will take time for Boss and Campbell to get on the same page.

A's -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Gio Gonzalez makes a home start for the A's and that usually means good things especially when he's favored as he's 13-3 in his last 16 favored between -110 to -150. A's are 47-22 in their last 59 as favorites between that number, but looking at the match up I like this even more as he faces off against the Angels who in his last 3 home starts has dominated going 20 innings giving up 0 ER and just 9 hits. Joel Pineiro will oppose him and Pineiro has struggled in 3 starts vs. the A's this season he's given up 22 hits 6 walks in just 13.2 IP for a 9.22 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. In his last 6 road starts in Oakland dating back to 2006 he has a 10.29 ERA he has never liked pitching here for whatever reason. Overall in his last 4 road starts he's given up 18 ER in 15 innings and that includes a struggle with the AL's worst team the Mariners. Pineiro just is not a good road pitcher with an ERA approaching 6 this year on the road. To make matters worse the A's hit him hard as DeJesus, Matsui, Pennington, are 26-75 for an average of .375 vs. him. Overall the A's have 165 ab with a .303 average and .783 ops. Angels are just 1-5 in their last 6 and this misconception that the A's can't hit at home is over rated they are scoring 4.5 runs per 9 and they have a team ERA of 3.15 so they are very capable. They just do it the old fashioned way.

Falcons -1.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Two of the best teams from a year ago and I think it says a lot that the Falcons have moved to slight favorites here. Bears have disgruntled players two key players want a better contract in Forte and Briggs and while it won't have a huge impact they still won't be as hungry on Sunday's. Bottom line though the reason I'm on the Falcons so large is their offense and defense has improved for 2011. No question about it they were +52 yards compared to the Bears offense and they add Julio Jones who will be able to stretch the field a bit and remove the double team on Rhoddy White. I'm excited to see what this offense can do against a very good defense on the road. Falcons put up 200 points on the road a year ago and went 6-2 so I'm confident they should have no trouble scoring especially behind a returned offensive line which has been the key to the success of Ryan over the past 3 years. Too bad Cutler can not say the same. Bears offensive line is a mess they have a new center and Cutler was sacked an NFL worst 52 times a year ago. Now the Falcons added Ray Edwards from the Vikings to go on the other side of John Abraham and this pass rush is going to be one of the best in the league. There are also whispers that the Bears are not happy that Roy Williams is getting playing time and that could result in players quitting on a team. Overall I do not like the attitude on the Bears side vs. what is going on with Matt Ryant and the Falcons. I think Falcons role by a touch down.

Utah +9 (5* NCAAF POD) Utah 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 as a road dog and USC is 3-9 ATS after a straight up win which I was just not impressed. USC was held to 2.4 yards per carry which was not surprising because this offensive line is super thin they lost 5 veterans in the off season. Utah's defensive line is a real strength and they should dominate USC in the trenches, tackle Star Lotolelei and Shelby/Kruger on the outside getting pressure with the line backers behind them who play hard this defense should be able to keep their team in the game. USC does have Matt Barkley and Robert Woods who had 17 receptions a week ago, but they were scoreless in the 2nd half vs. Minnesota and were lucky to hold onto the game vs. the Gophers. Utah is heading into their first Pac -12 game and there is no doubt they are pointing to this game and it certainly showed vs. Montana State which their poor play I feel has a lot to do with this line that continues to come down towards to a touchdown. Utah did not show a lot I don't care what anyone says and they did that on purpose. Jordan Wynn is capable of opening things up and I think Norm Chow the old offensive coordinator for USC under Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert will allow him to on Saturday night. Utah still rushed the ball 38 times for 191 yards and the name most will need to remember after this game is John White IV as he is a real star and has real speed. The Juco transfer had a 150 yards rushing a week ago. USC was 109th in the nation in pass defense and have all 4 starters back which is not necessarily a good thing. Minnesota's two QB's although not efficient were 14-25 for 192 yards. This defense struggles to close games and does wear down and struggle on 3rd down defense and red zone defense and that's never a good thing when you are favored at home by more than a TD.

Cardinals -145 (4.5* MLB POD) The Braves face a lefty in Garcia and are last in the NL in OPS vs. LHP, while the Cardinals face a righty in Lowe who are #1 in the NL in OPS vs. RHP. Jaime Garcia has a 2.64 ERA at home this year and he's 14-2 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Braves have a .224 average in 48 AB vs. Garcia as he posts a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts vs. them in 2 years. Braves struggles vs. LHP continue as they are scoring just 1.56 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 and on the road this year they have an OVERALL average of .198 scoring just 2.38 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The Cardinals meanwhile who rallied to win in 10 innings last night face a righty in Derek Lowe who they have beat up in the past. In fact Lowe's last 3 vs. the Cardinals have resulted in an 10.93 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Berkman, Furcal, Holliday, and PUjols are a combined 43-109 with 5 HR for a .394 average. While Lowe has great success in September we feel that's behind him with his age he showed in his last road start vs. a good hitting Phillies team that he could not get guys out. He'll need to be superb to give the Braves a shot and I think there is just too much talent in the other dug out. He's also on just 4 days rest where the Braves are 0-7 in his last 7 on 4 days and are 0-5 in their last 5 in St. Louis. Look for the Cardinals to win at home and continue their success vs. RHP.

Rockies -138 (5*MLB POD) Love the Rockies today because of the pitching match up as Chacin takes on Bailey and the Reds. The Rockies are 23-6 in their last 29 home games vs. the Reds. The Rockies are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a losing team and the Reds on the road vs. a winning home team which is what the Rockies are, are 20-42 in their last 62. Homer Bailey is 2-4 on the road with a 4.67 ERA while Chacin is 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA at home and a 3.02 at night. Bailey in 4 career starts vs. the Rockies has a 7.23 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP. While Chacin has 14 IP 4 ER in two starts vs. the Reds this year who are scoring almost a full run less on the road vs. RHP than LHP. In fact the active hitters for the Reds have 53 AB vs. Chacin and a .189 average and .498 OPS while the Rockies have 61 AB vs. Bailey for a .344 average and a .923 OPS. Tulo/Smith and Cargo combined are hitting .500 with 3 HR off Bailey. Rockies are hitting .277 and are scoring 6.09 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP while the Reds are under 4 runs per 9.per 9.

Dbacks -170 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks go with Ian Kennedy at home who has a 2.93 ERA and ARizona has a .341 average and 1.145 OPS vs. Corey Luebke who has pitched over his head all year long and he's entering new territory as he is not used to pitching this many innings at this point of the year. He's got a 6.57 ERA and he faces a red hot Dbacks team hitting .330 vs. LHP over their last 10 games and are a good home team vs. LHP. Padres are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings and Kennedy has dominated the Padres this year with a 2.07 ERA.

Saints/packers Over 47.5 (4.4* NFL POD); Saints +5 (3* play) I got to say that with the short pre season with teams getting in late it will have more of an impact on the defense. As always the offense knows where the ball is going the defense does not. Yes the Packer were ranked 2nd in points allowed and yes they were 5th in sacks, but that was last year. Sometimes returning the same players in this league does not guarantee you results in a new year. The Saints have been said to have a very organized off season and I love their three headed monster in the backfield with Sproles, Ingram and Thomas to help Brees out with balance which they will have. Brees also has a electrifying TE in his own Jimmy Graham who will out play Jermicah Finley tonight shocking everyone as these two teams go back and forth. The game will end up getting decided by a field goal or 4 points on a touchdown to win the game in my opinion. Saints put up 51 points in 2008 on this team and though it

Arizona +14 4.5* ncaaf pod
This one has all the talent and excitement you would want on a Thursday night game.

Giants -133 (4* MLB POD); I love Cain on the road during a day start he's got a 2.81 ERA on the road and a 2.14 ERA during day starts and I have a feeling Carlos Beltran is about to carry this team back into contention. He's red hot right now 12-21 over the last 7 days and he faces Harrang who he has a .304 average against with a .950 OPS. Harrang has a 3.84 ERA during day not as good during the night. The Padres meanwhile have a 186 career at bats active in the line up vs. Matt Cain with a .204 average and a .641 OPS while the Giants have 221 at bats and a .271 average and a .784 OPS vs. Harrang. Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings vs. the NL west while the Padres are 6-25 in their last 31 vs. NL West.

Phillies -117 (4.5 * MLB POD) Tim Hudson makes the start for the Braves and he has not started in Philly since 2007 where the Braves are 3-7 in their last 10. Hudson is also 3-7 in his last 10 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Hudson has also struggled in September over the last few years with a 4.73 ERA. He struggles big time vs. Ryan Howard who just happens to be on fire at the moment. Howard is 14-47 with 6 HR's off Hudson and this last week he's 9-26 with 4 HR. Mayberry also is 2-2 with 2 HR vs. Hudson and is hitting well right now. Hudson goes up against the much younger Vance Worley, but the Braves offense is beatable scoring just 3.22 runs per 9 over their last 5 games total. He has a 5-0 record with a 1.96 ERA at home and is 8-0 with a 1.51 ERA during night starts this year. Phillies have just been great at home and are 38-18 in their last 56 vs. RH starters and 16-2 in Worley's last 18 starts. Hudson has not pitched as well on the road and he hasn't pitched in this ball park very often having 7 straight home starts vs. the Phillies this should be very different and a playoff like atmosphere.

Tigers +107 *4* MLB POD - Cubs -138 2.5* bonus Love the Tigers today. Fister's 4 starts vs. the Indians this year have resulted in a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and he doesn't have to face Shin Soo Choo who was 8-16 off him in his career. Fister also has pitched well during day games. The Indians starter can't say the same as Jimenez has 9 da starts with a 7.04 ERA this year and the Tigers who are red hot have a .931 career OPS vs. him. Jackson, Cabrera, Young, Peralta, and Martinez are a combined 20-44 for a .455 average off Jimenez and they are scoring 7.55 runs per 9 overall in their last 10 games while the Indians are at 3.70.

4** NCAAF POD
smu +15.5 (4* NCAAF POD) This is a much under rated SMU squad that's been to back to back bowl games and returns a ton of talent including QB Kyle Padron and C-USA leading rusher Zach Line. Sure Texas A&M is loaded with talent with Tannenhill and Fuller, but the defense lost their two best players. I think SMU can stay within striking distance and their defense is very under rated.

Dodgers -130 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Dodgers here as they have won 6 in a row and 20 of their last 26 when they are favored. Clayton Kershaw so far to me is the Cy Young winner now he goes east in what might look like a start that does not matter, but it's going to be a big one on whether or not he can win the Cy Young facing a playoff team on the road. In 3 career starts vs. the Braves he's got a 2.42 ERA 25 K's in 22.1 IP with a WHIP under 1.00. Braves hitters have 60 career at bats and a .133 average vs. Kershaw and ironically for a playoff team are 29th in OPS vs. LHP this year. Those struggles are highlighted even more over their last 10 as they have a .185 average vs. LHP. Dodgers are scoring 6.64 runs over their last 10 games vs. RHP and continue to be hot as they face rookie Randall Delgado. Delgado looks to have solid stuff at 21, but he's just 21 and he's prone to walking guys and giving up HR's. He had a quality start but it was vs. the Giants in August. IN AAA/AA he has an ERA over 4 and is giving up more than 4 walks per game and nearly 2 HR. The Braves injuries I think are starting to have an impact on the bullpen and again they'll likely have to go to the bullpen early and that bullpen which is best in the majors has a 5.62 ERA over the last 5. Back to Kershaw we see he's got 100+ pitches in all of his last 10 starts, but the Dodgers are being smart giving him extra rest when they can as he's off 5 days rest today where the Dodgers are 16-5 in his last 21 on 5 days rest.

Rockies +135 (4* MLB POD) Corey Luebke since being a starter has pitched over his head with a 3.53 ERA at home even that's not enough to over come the Padres poor offense as they are ranked last vs. RHP in terms oOPS and last in terms of OPS at home with a .629. They'll face Alex White who is still very raw but had an ERA under 2 in the minors between the Indians and the Rockies. He made two impressive starts for the Indians vs. the Tigers and Angels two playoff teams as he went 6 innings in each giving up 2 ER and 3 ER his only mistakes were home runs which the Padres just are not going to hit. Luebke on the other hand who was out of the bullpen earlier this year has had starts against teams that just don't hit lefties well and as a starter he has not pitched that well and he's faced teams ranked 29th, 28th, 23rd, 19th, 18th, and 12th vs. LHP in terms of OPS. Now he faces the Rockies who are ranked 10th and have beat him up in the past as he posts a 1.86 WHIP and 7.45 ERA as he's given up 3 HR. Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings here and the Padres are just 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. NL west.

Georgia +3 -102 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I'll get to it right off the bat. Boise State has weaknesses this year. The right side of the offensive line (blind side) features two new sophmore starters. The key to disrupting Kellen Moore is pressure. Georgia also has a huge advantage in the secondary as they are deep and strong and the front 7 should be much better this year. Back to the secondary they go up against a Boise group that lost Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for more than 400 receptions and more almost 5,000 receiving yards 64 TD's in their careers. Georgia should be able to take advantage with their defense in this game especially if their athleticism up front gives Boise issues. Also Boise has inexperience in their secondary. Aarron Murray is ready after 24 TD's and just 8 interceptions a year ago with 61% completion rate. If Georgia can run the ball too they win this game but Boise is very strong against the run though they gave up 269 to Nevada and 250 to Utah State down the stretch so they can be run on and Georgia's offensive line is much bigger than the Dline of Boise... Look for this to be a key in the 2nd half. Lastly Georgia has the best special teams in the nation and it can be a huge advantage in what I think will be a lower than expected scoring game. They feature the best kicker in Blair Walsh and Georgia was also 19th in turnover margin something that led Boise to winning at Virginia Tech a year ago 33-30. Boise was really lucky to win that game and I expect Georgia to be a little more ready knowing how big this game is. Note Boise is 0-4 vs. the SEC. Their non-conference schedule is still weak looking back at previous 3 years and all the success. I mean they had Vtech and Oregon state out of the ACC and the Pac 10 and Oregon the year before, but overall those conferences are not the SEC. Boise always has a weak schedule we are just stating the fact and I think Boise will not be as good as last year's team with the 3 glarring weaknesses on the blind side of offensive line, the inexperience wide receivers (good Georgia secondary), and the inexperience in Boise's secondary (Aarron Murray accurate passer can take advantage).

Baylor +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Baylor here. TCU dominated them 45-10 in week 3 last year so this is a big revenge game for Baylor. Robert Griffith is a dark horse for the Heismann and he returns 4 of his top 5 receivers along with an offensive line that has been building to this point. TCU on the other hand lost 26 letterman including 3 of their top 4 receivers and QB and 4 of their 5 regulars on the defensive front. Baylor did not turn the ball over against TCU last year despite the loss and Grifftith threw 67% completion rate overall last year and I expect him to be able to move the ball a little bit on a rebuilding TCU team. While they held Baylor to 99 yards rushing a year ago I think Baylor may go through the air a little bit more early in this game. Defensively I think Baylor is going to have a better year because it could not get any worse. First things first they face a sophmore QB in Casey Pachall making his first start. Now he's supposed to be better than Dalton and I believe we'll see that before the year is out, but right now I think Baylor has the advantage despite the secondary being their weak link. The old TCU assistant takes over as defensive coordinator and put in a 4-2-5 scheme. Watch out for Baptise 335 lbs commanding double teams allowing the Baylor linebackers to come up and stop runs. Baylor looked like a completely different team at home and as home dogs on revenge I can't help but back them in this spot.

Red Sox -118 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers took a big blow to their line up when they lost Nelson Cruz they have dropped down vs. LHP as they are now 5th while Boston who will also face a lefty are #2 in the league and have been even better at home vs. LHP scoring 6.69 runs per 9 wiht a .312 average at home. Cruz was hitting .344 vs. lefties and Andrew Miller won't have to face him as he makes his second start vs. the Rangers the first one just a few weeks ago 6.1 innings 3 hits, 2 walks 1 ER. Texas since losing Cruz have struggled over their last 10 games they are hitting .208 with just 2.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The bullpen has struggled to with a 4.75 ERA over that period. While the Red Sox coming off a loss last night have a .302 average vs. LHP over their last 10 games with a 3.77 bullpen, but Texas on the road has a .244 average and just 3.81 runs per 9 vs. LHP so big advantage to the Red Sox. Holland has not pitched well in August over his career and at 163 innigns pitched it's the most he's ever pitched. Expect them to go to that bullpen and be extremely conservative with him. Rangers are 2-12 when Hollans is a +150 or less under dog in his last 14 while the Red Sox are 26-10 in their last 36 vs. LH starters and 39-16 in their last 55 vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

ANGELS -161 4* MLB POD
Not much on the card today but we'll come with this play late after losing 2 of 3 to the Mariners to open the series the Angels who are still in a playoff race turn to ERvin Santana to try to even up the series and I think they well as they face off against lefty Furbush who is 1-6 with a 5.65 ERA during night starts with a 1.72 WHIP. Furbush had a start vs. the Angels giving up 5 hits 1 walk and 3 ER in just 4.2 IP vs. the Angels this year. Santanna has dominated this team and the Mariners though are swinging the bats well right now showed signs of cooling down last night. They are 29th vs. RHP in OPS and are one of the worst home hitting teams. Angels are 48-22 in their last 70 meetings and the Angels over the last 10 games vs. LHP are scoring 6.34 runs per 9 with a .314 average. I expect them to come up with a big win here today as the Angles are 9th vs. LHP in ops this year.

Idaho -6 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
It will be a repeat of the Humanitarian bowl won by Idaho in 2009 the only previous match up between these too. Bowling Green was in a rebuilding year last year but they still return one of the youngest rosters in college football with 54 freshmen or red shirt freshmen and 27 sophmores or red shirt sophomores. This team last year struggled big time on defense in both stopping the run and pass. They lack size and add in that they just were not very good on special teams and this team has nothing to do but improve, but I like Idaho out of the WAC. They had a disappointing year last year and gave up a bunch of sacks (main issue) with 45 sacks to QB

Indians -125 (4.5* MLB POD); Jimenez has looked solid in his home starts vs. the Indians as he's got 15 innings pitched 14 baserunners and 1 ER. HIs two home starts were against the Royals and the Tigers ranked 5 and 9th in OPS vs. RHP so very impressed by those numbers. Now he faces Oakland who has a 23rd rank OPS and have never seen Jimenez. Oakland on the road just .244 vs. RHP wiht 3.72 runs per 9 will face Cleveland with Harden on the mound who the Indians have a .333 average and 1.283 OPS vs. him. They are scoring nearly 5 runs per game at home vs. RHP. Oakland also has a 7.33 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games and are 17-39 in their last 56 road games vs. RH starters whiel the Indians are 43-17 in their last 60 overall as favorites.

Brewers -147 (4.5* MLB POD) Do the Brewers ever lose here? Now they get Edwin Jackson who in his last start at Milwaukee as he threw 7 innings gave up 14 hits and 8 ER. Collectively the Brewers have 98 AB and a .306 average .938 OPS vs. Jackson who does have good stuff. Brewers are just a different animal at home this year. Marcum has a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Cardinals are 5-14 in their last 19 as a dog. Cards have just a .245 average vs. him and a .591 OPS with Berkman and Pujols a combined 2-19. Milwaukee is 7-1 in their last 8 home vs. the Cards and are hitting more than 1.5 runs per game than the Cardinals in the last 10 games. I expect the Brewers to continue what they are doing and dominate as Jackson really has not pitched well outside Busch Stadium since being acquired by the Cardinals.

Phillies -141 (4.5* MLB POD); Phillies look to stay hot as they go on the road to face the Reds who gave us an early bird winner yesterday in extra innings. Phillies should be well rested and though the Reds are #2 in OPS vs. LHP which they will face in Cole Hamels on Monday I'll tell you why I still like the Phillies today. First of all the quality of LHP that the Reds have faced has not been there and not to often. This team has under 1000 AB's vs. LHP this year that's the least in the majors. Think about that most full time MLB players will have 500 AB themselves in a season and the Reds have only seen LHP 930 times in 2011. They've faced a lefty just 4 times in their last 27 games and those starters have been Ross Detwiler twice and WAndy Rodriguez and Wade Leblanc. The last 2 quality pitchers at Cole Hamels level they faced were David Price and Clayton Kershaw who combined for 15.2 IP and 3 ER or a 1.72 ERA. Hamels has arguably having a better year than both of those lefties and he's dominated the Reds in his career 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA. He's also got a 2.82 ERA on the road and 6-2 record while Homer Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home and vs. the Phillies he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 4 career start. The meat of the Reds line up Phillips, Renteria, Votto and Stubbs have a combined 12-75 with a .160 average vs. Hamels. Phillies have a .804 OPS combined vs. Bailey. Reds are just 2-9 in their last 11 vs. NL East with Bailey on the mound while the Phillies are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. RH starter. Reds also have a 5.28 bullpen over their last 10 games and that's been the main issue with this team and we saw it in extra innings on Sunday despite them pitching well we saw manager Dusty Baker hesitate with his bullpen in that game. Phillies are 29-11 in their last 40 vs. the NL Central with Hamels on the mound and their bullpen is plenty rested and their offense is plenty good of late hitting .277 over their last 10 games with 5.77 runs per 9 overall.

Diamondbacks -148 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks continue to win and it's been the pitching as the main reason. Now they get a home game vs. a lefty in Cory Luebke and they are 5-2 in their last 7 home vs. LH starter. Luebke has looked great as a rookie starter, but looked bad vs. the Diamondbacks at home where he gave up 3 HR 6 innings pitched 6 hits 2 walks and 4 ER. Luebke's numbers look better than they really are in my opinion because the teams he's been facing can't really hit lefty pitching as his last 5 opponents are ranked 18th, 22, 22, 25, and 24th, so it's not a shock he's putting up nice numbers. Padres had some hot bats, but now their bats have been struggling over the last 3 games hitting .189 with 18K's and 18 hits. Ian Kennedy is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA vs. the Padres over 5 career starts so I expect him to continue that domination as he's got 41 K's in 30 innings pitched and the Padres are hitting .194 with a .570 OPS with 67 at bats vs. Kennedy. Padres are 7-21 in their last 28 after their opponent allows 2 runs or less in prev game and are 34-76 in their last 110 visits to Arizona.

Tigers -125 (4.5* MLB POD) Rick Porcello has been way better on the road this year than he has been at home. He's also due for a quality start and that's something I think he'll get on Friday vs. the Twins who are one of the worst hitting teams vs. RHP they also just lost Thome on waivers they traded Delmon Young. Denard Span is on the DL, Mauer is not likely to play neither is Velencia and Kubel couldn't be claimed on waivers before the game. Yikes and not to mention they bring up Scott Diamond who has a 5.56 ERA in AAA this year to make a start. The Tigers have been hot with the bats and are 6th in the league with a .754 OPS vs. lhp this year. Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. the Twins and have a .197 average vs. RHP over their last 10 games and Porcello is 3-1 this year with a 3.42 ERA during the Twins this year over 4 starts.

Rangers -150 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers RL +126 (2* BONUS) Love the Rangers to bounce back and win tonight's game after losing two times to the Sox over the past two days. First things first Red Sox have never faced Alexi Ogando who has been great at home which is hard to say in Texas as the RAngers have the best home OPS making it known this is a hitters park. But Ogando is 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and is 10-3 with a 3.24 ERA during night starts. Red Sox can hit as they've shown in this series, but Ogando should have them under control early. Andrew Miller makes the start for the Sox and that's where my play really comes in because Miller has been awful, but nobody is noticing. Miller has a 4.99 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP it could totally be worse. IT's his first time facing the Rangers, but this is not a good spot for the youngster on the road vs. an angry Rangers team that at home is hitting .294 with 7.07 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I expect the Rangers to get 5 runs off him. Miller really has not faced any good teams that can hit lefties in his 9 starts with an average opponent ranked 16th in OPS vs. LHP. Only team he faced in the top 10 was the Rays and they knocked him around for 7 ER in just 2.2 IP. Look for the Rangers to get back in the win column they are #5 vs. LHP this year and as I mentioned they ironically hit lefties at home better than they hit righties. Miller pitching over his head which is obvious by his 5.55 BB/9 and low 6.10 K/9 ratio. Texas is 22nd in walks this year so they are very aggressive which I think might go on to hurt Miller here today because he's stressing throwing stirkes. look for him to leave a few over the plate to get a head of guys, but the Rangers lineup will be ready. Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 in Texas and the Rangers are 14-6 in their last 20 home vs. LH starters. Lastly Miller during night starts opponents are hitting .333 so it's not just the walks he has a 6.61 ERA during the night.

Brewers -139 (4.5* MLB POD) I like the Brewers here today big time especially following a loss to a team that is pretty much dead since the trade deadline and are just 11-43 in the Pirates last 54 meetings wiht the Brewers. I think the only reason the Brewers lost game #2 yesterday was because it's very hard to sweep a double header. Look for the Brewers to come back strong here they are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Estrada has been solid for the Brewers as he went 5 innigns given up 1 base runner in his last start vs. the Pirates. If you take out his poor start on the road vs. the Braves and he has a 1.57 ERA over his last 4 starts. Brewers will face Ross Ohlendorf making his first start since April as he spent time in the minors this year and a 4.44 K/9 ratio and 2.96 BB/9 ratio in AAA is not going to get anyone out at this level especially the way the Brewers are hitting. Prince Fielder has 2 HR in 10 at bats off him and the Pirates are 8-19 in his last 27 starts.

Rangers -140 *5.5 MLB POD Rangers RL +150 2* PLAY Rangers were clearly looking ahead to this game after getting beat 10-0 yesterday. Now they return home where they have been dominant especially vs. LHP which is what they get on Monday when Erik Bedard comes to town. Bedard two solid starts v.s the Rangers this year but he has been pitching at home vs. the Rangers and pitching in Texas is a different story they lead the league in OPS at home with a .852 and vs. LHP they have a .298 average and 7.22 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home while the Sox have a .769 overall OPS on the road and vs. LHP just .234 with 4.04 runs per 9 vs. LHP which they'll face in CJ Wilson who has dominated them. Wilson has 1.35 ERA over 4 starts in his career vs. the REd Sox and he should have any easier time with the possibility of no Ellsbury and Ortiz and Youkilis already out of the middle of that line up. That's a huge advantage for Wilson who is 11-1 in his last 12 as a home favorite -110 to -150. Rangers overall are 22-7 in their last 29 as a home favorite. As I mentioned Bedard at Texas is a different story in his start this year it came in April in his first start of the year he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP including 2 hr in his start before that he gave up 11 base runners over just 2 innings giving up 6 ER.

Rangers -126 *4.5* MLB POD Rangers lost yesterday which was a rare thing, but I see them bouncing back on Sunday when they send Holland to the mound the lefty has dominated on the road and during day starts. In fact the Rangers have the #1 DAY ERA and Holland has a 2.59 ERA while the team overall has a 2.96 ERA. Rangers bats are #3 vs. RHP which they will face on Sunday as the White Sox are 20th with a sub .700 OPS vs. lefties. Gavin Floyd makes the start and he is 1-4 vs. Rangers over his career wtih a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's also struggled during day starts and at home where he carries a 7.15 ERA and a 5.09 ERA during the day. Rangers have a .802 OPS vs. Floyd over 103 AB's and are 27-9 in their last 36 vs. RH starter. White Sox struggle at home .244 3.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year and when Floyd is a dog the Sox are 7-16 in their last 23 games. Floyd also is not a very good anchor pitcher as the Sox are 4-17 in his last 21 game 3 starts. Lastly I like that the Rangers are coming off a loss yesterday and I think the value and the line is better than it should be considering the run the Rangers are on and I'll continue to say the Sox are over rated

Yankees -140 (4.5* MLB POD) AJ Burnett continues to get no respect and I don't blame the NY media, but he really has not been terrible. Burnett is due to have a dominant start and facing a team like the Twins who are 28th vs. RHP in terms of OPS are a good team to do that against. Not to mention that he is 6-0 vs. the Twins with the Yankees with a 2.20 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Twins. Yankees have dominated this team 61-19 in the last 80 meetings and I expect them to win here facing a lefty who they have dominated in Liriano. Yankees 22-5 in their last 27 vs. LH starters and 18-5 in Burnett's last 23 game #3 starts. Twins just 18-42 in their last 60 vs. AL east and 3-18 in their last 21 with Liriano vs. AL east. Liriano is actually 0-6 in 6 career starts giving up 38 hits 16 walks over 35 innings pitched good for a 1.54 WHIP which just won't get it done vs. a hot hitting Yankee team that is #1 in the league in OPS vs. LHP at .834. Yankees on the road this year .287 scoring 6.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP and have a 3.12 bullpen which gives them the advantage in that department too because the Twins have an ERA over 5 at home from their bullpen. Cano, Jeter, and Gardner are a combined 15-40 vs. Liriano so I'm confident as he has a 1.94 whip over his last 3 and a 3-4 record at home with a 5.83 ERA that the Yankees can get to him throughout this one.

Rangers -116 (5* MLB POD) Rangers are on fire they just took over the AL West and I'll continue to fade the White Sox as I do not think they are that good and even with Peavy who has had some poor luck on the mound looks like the White Sox advantage he is still not the same dominant pitcher. We have yet to see him dominate a line up other than the Twins who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP in the league now he faces #2 OPS vs. RHP team in the RAngers who have knocked him around in 2 starts since joining the White Sox 8 ER over just 5.1 innings on 11 hits and 6 walks. Hamilton, Andrus and Cruz are 9-17. Collectively they have 102 AB .294 average and .837 OPS. Meanwhile Matt Harrison keeps flying under the radar. The White Sox really struggle vs. lefties 20th in OPS this year and Harrison has a 1.29 ERA over his last 3 starts vs. the White Sox and they have just .212 average and .614 OPS vs. him. White Sox at home are scoring just 3.40 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Texas' bullpen has been solidified so they also hold an advantage there and are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. RH starter as the White Sox have not been a good home team 5-16 in their last 21 as a home dog.

Indians -111 (4* MLB POD) Masterson has been to good this year to not back him playing a White Sox team that has struggled vs. righties. Masterson is 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA on the road and a 2.41 ERA during night starts. His last 4 games at Chicago have resulted in a 1.59 ERA. The Indians are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the White Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. a RH starter. They have a .247 average and .661 ops vs. Masterson over 178 AB. Phillip Humber is the real reason I got Cleveland here. I said he got lucky in who he was facing at home which led to his great first half. He's certainly come down to earth over his last 5 starts he's allowed 22 ER over just 29.1 IP while giving up a whopping 40 hits and 7 walks. That's a 6.75 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP which is just crazy to even think about here. Yes he had to face the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees over those 5 starts and I said the reason he's been lucky was he was averaging an easy opponent at home, but vs. the Twins and Orioles who are ranked 28th and 13th vs. RHP he gave up 11 hits a piece 22 total over 9.2 innings while surrendering 10 ER. I think Humber is past what he can throw on a season but the Sox have no choice but to throw him out there. These two teams are pretty much even on everything else but the pitching match up heavily favors the Indians and we are not seeing it that way in the line.

Love the Rangers. Ervin Santana has been red hot of late giving up just 4 ER over his last 5 starts. I feel he is so past due for a bad start and wouldn't it be perfect against the scorching hot Rangers who are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and 22-7 in their last 29 vs. RH ptichers. Santana's last 3 vs. Texas resulted in a 7.79 ERA where as CJ Wilson has a 2.68 ERA on the road and in his last 6 vs. the Angels has a 5-1 record and 1.38 ERA. Angels have a .227 average and .652 OPS over 211 AB. Rangers have a .298 average and .828 OPS over 302 at bats vs. Santana. Cruz and Beltre have a total of 7 HR among them and Andrus, Young and Kinsler are a combined 52-135 good for a .385 average.

Cardinals -139 *4.5* MLB POD I love that the Cardinals are coming off a loss here as they really step it up in these situations .273 average 5.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP, and over his career Chris Carpenter has also stepped up when his team has needed him. Carpenter has dominated the Pirates over his career 12-2 in 17 starts where the Cardinals have gone 15-2 in those games with a 2.24 ERA. Since June 23rd he has a 7-1 record and a 2.60 ERA and though he makes a start on the road I"m confident he has a great advantage the Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. RH starter following a win they are scoring just 3.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Expect the Cardinals to get revenge on last night's loss. Jeff Karstens has dominated the Cardinals but is still jsut 1-2 in three starts from 2010 where he gave up 3 ER over 18 IP. That still leaves 1/3 of the game open to the bullpen as he's gone 6 IP in each start. Pirates have been great at home with their bullpen but over their last 10 games they have a 6.59 ERA. Karstens also has struggled of late 7.17 ERA over his last 3 and in the month of August his last 11 starts in this month along with 6 bullpen appearances over the last 3 years have resulted in an ERA over 5. Cardinals are not the same team he saw a year ago with Berkman this offense is the #1 OPS team vs. RH pitching in the National League with a .765 OPS while the Pirates who are also facing a righty are ranked 26th in the league with a .669. They've struggled to score runs at home and Carpenter will keep that under control. Cardinals are still in a race for the playoffs and they need this game.

gers -141 (4.5* mlb pod) Porcello off a poor start is bound to rebound as he should be fresh. His last 3 starts vs. the Twins has led to a 2.55 ERA and he's going up against them as the 28th ranked team in OPS vs. RHP. He goes up against Francsco Liriano who has had a nightmare vs. the Tigers. Tiger hitter have .337 average and .967 OPS in 187 at bats while the Twins are at .264 and .744 OPS vs. Porcello. Tigers also have the better bullpen coming into the game. Tigers are #6 vs. lhp this year .747 OPS and are 13-3 when Porcello is pitching vs. a losing team over his last 16. Twins are 3-12 in Liriano's last 15 starts vs. a winning team. Overall the Tigers who just made a trade for Delmon Young formerly with the Twins, and should have every advantage on Monday.

Rangers -124 (4.5* MLB POD); Rangers stay on fire and they'll need to do that Sunday too because the Angels are just 3 games out. They'll face a starter they had a year ago in Rich Harden who earlier in this year gave up 5 ER over 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 2 walks for a 2.00 WHIP. He'll go up against Matt Harrison who has been dominant during day starts 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His 5 career starts vs. the A's he has a 2.15 ERA and the A's are ranked 24th in OPS vs. LHP with a .678 while the Rangers are #2 vs. RHP with a .781. Texas has a .304 average and .884 OPS vs. Harden with Young/Hamilton/Moreland/Kinsler wiht a combined 18-47 off him. Harden has largely struggled during day games in the last 3 years he has 29 starts with a 4.61 ERA over 1.5 runs higher than his ERA during night starts. Texas is 24-6 in their last 30 as favorites 16-5 in their last 21 vs. AL west and Oakland is 15-31 in their last 46 as dogs.

Orioles +120 (4* MLB POD) Love the Orioles Jeremy Guthrie really has pitched better than his record has said. He gets a night start this time around where he has a 3.96 ERA on the year and he goes up against the Tigers who have hit a cold stretch with the bats just 3.47 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Baltiomore is also backed by a bullpen with a 2.06 ERA over the last 10 games and they are more than due for a win. Guthrie's last 2 starts vs. the Tigers has resulted in just 9 base runners over 15 innings pitched and 0 ER. I look for him to continue on that success and win this game as Max Scherzer has a 5.20 ERA on the road this year and Baltimore hits righties well at home 4.67 runs per 9 and collectively they have 70 at bats vs. Scherzer with a .343 average and .913 ops.

Red Sox - 151 (4.5* MLB POD) John Lackey has been red hot and the Red Sox are the best road team. Lackey got it done against the Yankees who hit righties a hell of a lot better than the Mariners who are 29th in the league in OPS .634 v. RHP. I love Lackey's history vs. the Mariners 9-2 with a 1.95 ERA over his last 12 and he's 5-0 with a 1.45 in his last 6 in Seattle. Red Sox are still one of the best hitting teams on the road vs. RHP scoring 5.47 runs per 9 while the Mariners are scoring just 3.25. I think the Red Sox crusie as they face Blake Beavan for a second time. They had 9 hits off him the first time and he's lucky to escape with just 3 ER. The rookie has an ERA under 3, but xfip is 4.28. He's only striking out 3.70 per 9 and he's been lucky with a .257 babip. He's going to come back down to life this is a guy that had a 4.45 ERA in AAA this year and a 6.47 last year.

Cardinals -126 (4.5* MLB POD) Chris Carpenter is one of those players I will back after having a bad outing vs. a team. Carpenter has had two bad starts against the red hot Brewers this year. Both were on the road ironically and Carpenter has been so much better at home this year with a 2.88 ERA. We backed Carp twice this year on MAX plays when he was coming off a rough start against that same team on the road in his previous start. He's a great pitcher to follow in that situation and he came up with gold so I can't help but to back him here on Thursday. Both starts he could not avoid the big inning. In his start in June he cruised through 5 innings giving up 1 ER and then 4 in the 6th. IN his start vs. the Brewers in July he cruised through 4 innings 0 ER and then gave up 5 earned runs. I think those are the type of things he can avoid pitching at home. He faces off against Gallardo who has a 4.14 ERA on the road. He was dominant in his one start vs. St. Louis but he had never won against them prior to that so I expect St. Louis to come out and avoid a sweep by the worst road team in the league that all of a sudden has found a way to win on the road. Gallardo has a 4.77 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Cardinals. He is 5-18 in his last 23 road starts as a dog. Cardinals are scoring nearly a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings at home than the Brewers are on the road and have an ERA over a run out of their bullpen better at home than the Brewers have on the road. I think Carpenter will put some water on the Brewers fire tonight.

TIGERS +121 (4* POD) Love the pitching match up... We keep thinking Ubaldo Jimenez is going to be the guy from last year. His problem has been his control as he now has 9 walks in his last 3 starts. In his previous starts vs. the Tigers over 3 years he's been bad with a 5.63 ERA. His last 3 starts have not been good and I think he struggles again here as the Tigers have a combined 47 AB with a .362 average and .837 OPS. Much better than the Indians can sayagainst Rick Porcello who they have 139 AB with a .223 average and .636 ops against. Tigers are #8 vs. RHP in OPS and have lost 12 straigth against the Indians on the road..That record is so far due to die and I think it does here as the Tigers are 20-8 in Porcello's last 28 starts. He's 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA on the road and is 6-2 in 8 career starts vs. the Indians with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.64 ERA at Cleveland..

Blue Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD) Love Cecil here he has a 2-0 record 1.64 ERA and 0.95 whip in his last 3 starts he's looking like the old Brett Cecil. He did it against the Rays 9th in OPS vs. LHP and 2 starts vs. the Rangers #5 in OPS vs. lhp. Now he faces the A's who are ranked 25th. He'll go up against Rich Harden who has a 5.74 ERA in his career vs. the Jays and has never been a good pitcher on turf. IN two starts last year he had 11 walks, 11 K's and 8 ER in just 5.1 IP vs. the Jays and that's very typical of Harden. He gives up home runs, strikes out a bunch and walks a bunch. Jays fit right in here that's probably why they have had so much success in their career off him. They are 6th overall in walks so I expect lots of baserunners tonight and for hte Jays to win as they are 24-8 following an off day 11-3 in their last 14 meetings at home vs. the A's. They are also 17-5 in Cecil's last 22 game 1 starts while the A's are an awful 3-10 in their last 13 rd starts vs. LH starters and 19-47 in their last 66 as a dog.

Red Sox -111 (4* MLB POD) Not a lot on the card today we like just one play and it's the Sox. Despite the pitching match up on favor being in favor of the Twins as Scott Baker has been dynamite at home 1.78 ERA. He has not had the pleasure of facing a team like the Red Sox whoa re #1 in OPS vs. RHP and on the road are hitting .262 with 5.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Twins at home have been awful this year and have a .250 average 3.70 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are 28th wtih a .657 OPS vs. RHP. Wakefield should have the advantage in this one in my opinion and that's why he is oddly a favorite. When he's a favorite -110 to -150 the Red Sox are 37-18 in his last 55. Twins are 17-38 in their last 55 vs. AL east and Wakefield has a 2.40 ERA in his last 3 years in the month of August. Finally the Twins bullpen is not very good with a 5.16 ERA at home.

Money Line

Pick:
Twins -120 (5.5* MLB POD) Love the Twins here we are getting great value as Zach Stewart starts for the White Sox. Pavano has a 12.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and that's why the line is where it is. A closer look he did have to face Texas and Detroit in his last 3 starts both are in the top 6 in OPS vs. RHP and he was on the road. Pavano at home is a different monster he has a 1.20 WHIP and 3.32 ERA during home starts and he has plenty of success vs. the White Sox who are ranked 19th vs. RHP in terms of OPS. His last 2 he's got a 0.93 WHIP and 1.69 ERA vs. the Sox and he's 8-2 in his last 10 with 4 complete games and a 3.07 ERA. Last 3 years August has been a good month where he posts a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts. Twins bullpen has been great 1.42 ERA over the last 10 games and they are scoring nearly 5 runs per game while the Sox are really struggling .227 3.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP and a 6.91 bullpen in hte last 10. That's going to be a big issue with Stewart on the mound as he has two road starts at Atlanta and Detroit and he's got a 2.38 WHIP giving up 19 hits 4 walks in 9.2 innings pitched. I think he struggles here the Twins are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. a losing team and 44-18 in their last 62 home as a favorite -110 to -150 and they also are 24-7 in their last 31 home vs. the White Sox after losing last night this is a good time to play them as I don't see this struggling White Sox offense winning two games in a row.

Rangers -150 *4.5* MLB POD Jimenez makes his first start in a new league and it comes against the one of the best offenses in a not so friendly hitters ball park in Texas. Rangers are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and are even more dangerous over their last 10 they have a .315 average and 6.15 runs per 9 and have been on fire all year at home and they are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings. Not many have seen JImenez but his control problems should lead to a lot of pitches early which will get handed over to the bullpen which advantage to Texas. Cleveland is 9-21 in their last 30 as a dog to +150. Jimenez 6 innings over last two pitches has given up 9 ER and has not been the same type player all year. INdians face a lefty and they are 21st in OPS vs. LHP. Holland threw a complete game shut out earlier in the year so I expect more domination for him as the Indians have just a .194 average in 31 at bats and a .445 OPS.

Yankees -113(4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are on fire right now and still remain #3 in the league with a .775 OPS vs. RHP which they will face again on Thursday in Phillip Humber. Humber is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 9.00 ERA, but we still get great value here because Humber dominated the Yankees in his debut. Yankees always struggle vs. teams their first time around so I

Cubs -105 (4.5* MLB POD) Garza is still coming in as an under rated starter and I love it. Though he gave up 12 hits to the Pirates the first time he saw them in the early season he also struck out 12 batters only gave up 3 ER over 7 innings. Pitching in Pittsburgh is going to be different for him and he can still dominate a team with K's the same way. I expect him to really pitch a gem with only 89 pitches in his last start especially since the Pirates really struggle with the bats at home and are 26th in the league with a .659 OPS vs. RHP. Garza struggles but he did against the Cards the #1 team in NL vs. RHP. Charlie Morton goes for the Pirates and I think he's hit his wall he's got 12 starts in August over the last 3 years with a 6.44 ERA. IN 4 career starts vs. the Cubs he has a 7.86 ERA though he's been better of late. Morton though in his last 2 starts has a 2.57 WHIP and 9.1 innings.

Yankees -103 (4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are the #1 team in OPS vs. LHP and even without Arod they continue to hammer away 22-7 in their last 29 vs. LH starters. They face Johny Danks who they have beat up in the past. CAno, Swisher, TEixera are a combined 14-29 with 2 HR off Danks. Even though Granderson has struggled vs. him big time 1-23 he has a .956 OPS vs. LEFTIES this year and is a completely different hitter vs. the south paws than in the past. Phil Hughes has struggled but this is an opportunity to turn it around as the White Soix over last 10 games are hitting .183 vs. RHP scoring just 3.23 runs per game whil ethe Yanks are hitting .319 vs. LHP scoring 8.71 runs over the same period. Yankees are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and I expect them to win this one big.

Brewers -125 (4* MLB POD) Brewers are the best home team in the majors and they got their ace going up against the Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. The home team usually wins the game between these two of late and I think it happens again tonight. Carpenter has not been good on the road this year and he's really struggled vs. the Brewers of late over his last 3 starts he's given up 17 ER over just 14 innings. Ricky Weeks is 6-10 with 3 home runs while Fielder is 6-17 with 2 home runs. Brewers are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and are 36-15 in their last 51 home vs. RH starters and 39-14 in their last 53 as a home favorite. Cardinals are 5-13 in Carps last 18 starts on 4 days rest and 5-11 in his last 16 road starts. Greinke finally getting some luck that he didn't have earlier and has a 1.40 ERA over his last 4 starts he's got 34 K's over 25 innings and can dominate this match up. He's got an ERA under 3 in his last two starts vs. the Cardinals over the last two years.

Red Sox +111 (4.5* MLB POD) Sox again. Despite their troubles vs. the White Sox we cashed in last night on our max play and we plan for the same result here today as when you cut to the core of this match up the true advantages are on the side of the men from Boston. Let's first start by saying the Red Sox have dominated day games this year they are 24-9 with a 3.71 ERA and have scored 6.55 runs per day game. They have the #1 OPS with an incredible .875 during day starts. Compared with the Sox who are scoring 4.18 runs per day game and have a 3.79 ERA and are 21-19. Just not quite even with what the Red Sox are doing. Next both teams are facing LHP today as Boston is #3 with a .816 OPS very close behind the Reds and Yankees while the White Sox have really struggled with a .668 OPS ranked 25th vs. LHP. Now the pitching match up looks like it's in favor of the Mark Buehrle and the White Sox but I beg to differ. Buehrle has been great at home with a 2.25 ERA over 10 starts, but a closer look and we realize how lucky he's been. First of all he's faced some very bad teams that can't hit lefties like the Red Sox including the A's twice, Twins, and Dodgers all ranked over 20th in OPS vs. LHP. His two starts vs. the Tigers who are ranked 7th are the only top 10 team he's faced at home and he gave up 10 hits in each start very lucky not to give up more runs than he did. He faced the Angels and Orioles both ranked 14th and 16th respectfully and again he gave up 12 base runners in each game and was able to escape giving his team a chance to win. Very lucky in my opinion. Red Sox are the cream of the crop and they have hit Buehlre very hard over their career as they have a combined 236 at bats with a .339 average and .856 OPS. McDonald, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia, Crawford all int he line up today are 46-115 batting .400 vs. him and Varitek is 10-31 with a lot of success vs. Buehrle. Add in Adrian Gonzalez .301 vs. LHP and Youkilis who is hitting .331 vs. LHP and this just spells trouble for Buehrle as the Red Sox are hitting .341 scoring 12.27 runs per 9 over the last 10 games vs. LHP. They are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. LH starters. Now to Boston's starter. I won't get into as deep, but Andrew Miller is only 26 coming off an 80 pitch performance so he's fresh to go in this one. He was a highly touted prospect and I think he still can be a huge factor for the Red Sox this season. You look at his ERA and you would stay away from this match up, but he's been bad in two starts vs. Rays and Royals who are 8th and 13th in OPS vs. LHP. The Sox are 25th so he finally gets a match up where he can cruise and dominate. His other 5 starts with the Sox this year he's 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA so he can pitch effectively especially vs. White Sox who are hitting .225 with just 2.23 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Boston's bullpen will be needed in this one and they are well rested and have a 2.59 ERA over their last 10 games.

Red Sox -147 (5.5* MLB POD) Sox have struggled vs. the White Sox just 2-14 in their last 16 meetings, but today I'll tell you why they are coming out of it. Phillip Humber has solid numbers right 3.42 ERA at home. Well he now faces the #1 hitting team vs. RHP in Boston which has .807 OPS vs. RHP this year and have over 5 runs per game vs. RHP on the road. Humber has 8 home starts. The best team as far as hitting goes vs. RHP that he faced was the Orioles who are ranked 10th, and the next 7 are ranked 19, 23, 24, 25,27 and 29th. It's no wonder he has pitched well with an average opponent ranked 22nd in OPS vs. RHP. He's also been largely lucky with an extremely low .250 BABIP. Now he faces a legitimate hitting team vs. RHP. His last start vs. Boston was solid, but he still gave up 4 ER 9 hits and a walk in nearly 8 innings. I don't think we can expect that today from a pitcher who faces a hungry Boston team that has lost two games in a row. Also he hasn't started in 13 days as he temporarily moved to the bullpen. Look for him to struggle early in this one. Lester on the other hand has struggled big time in his last 2 starts vs. the White Sox in his previous 4 he has a 3.03 ERA. White Sox just aren't hitting lefties this year they're ranked 25th with a .670 OPS vs. LHP. They have a .260 average and .766 OPS vs. Lester despite dominating him in his last two starts. Lester is 7-1 this year with a 2.80 ERA in road starts he threw under 100 pitches in his last start so he's real fresh and over 2008 to 2010 he was 7-4 2.79 ERA in July starts. White Sox at home this year just .236 average 3.39 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.