3.3* TOP PLAY

Warriors +2.5 3.3* POD

3.3* NCAAB POD

Depaul +7 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Depaul here being at home against Cincinnati whose offense has started to struggle in conference playing averaging over 11 points less than their season average in their last 7 games. In those 7 games they have only averaged 62.9 points and now they go on the road to play a Depaul team that has one of its best teams in recent years. The Blue Demons have averaged 75.3 points and have not scored less than 69 all season. They have a duo in Brandon Young and Cleveland Melvin. Depaul needs a big time conference win and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 match ups.

Rockets -145 4* NBA POD
Clippers just played last night and got a much needed win and now they'll play the Rockets who have had a couple of days off which is huge for a team that relies on their starting 5 score more than 75% of their points. The Clippers have played their worst defense by far on 0 days rest allowing 100.4 points per game. Their next worst defense is on 3+ days rest allowing 92.5 so it is obvious this team has trouble playing on back to back nights in my opinion where they are 3-5 ATS. I see the Rockets who have played well at home getting a big time win.

NORTHWESTERN -1 4.4* NCAAB POD

Falcons -2.5 5.5** NFL POD
Originally I liked the Seahawks, but upon further research this is just a bad bad match up for them. First of all it's not easy traveling all the way back west and then coming all the way back to play a game where your body feels like it's 10AM. Then you have to play a team that has to be hungrier than ever led by Matt Ryan who has not won a playoff game but is due for a big one.

The Falcons have handled good running teams all year despite being among the worst to stop it from a ypc aspect. They went 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc. That's because they get out to early leads forcing opponents to pass the ball. The Seahawks have passed the ball significantly more on the road as it is and they fell behind quick to the Redskins and were probably lucky that RG III was not 100%. I see the Seahawks coming out a little flat in this game and it doesn't help that they have not faced many elite QB's this year. They only faced three in my mind in New England, Green Bay and Detroit. They got lucky in both New England and Green Bay in home games and then lost to a bad Detroit team in a dome on the road. Their defense also only went up against 2 teams in the top 9 in sack %. Matty Ryan is 7th only sacked 4.35% of his drop backs and they have more weapons than all of the 3 previously mentioned teams on the outside.

Speaking of domes. Russell Wilson has not fared well this year. He's been great at home and even really good on the road over his last three games, but he played two road games in domes this year and in those games he lost both and threw 4 interceptions to just 2 TD's. If the Falcons can get up early they can ride their crowd in this one and I really think they will come out firing on all cylinders early to control this game and finally get a win. This team was different this year getting big wins when I thought they wouldn't and I'm very confident being on the Falcons side in this game.

Citadel +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD Citadel will take on Samford who just came off a road victory as a +15 under dog. That was a huge win for a program that lost at home in the previous game to Chattanooga by 4 points the same team Citadel lost to in their last game by 5 so I feel comfortable with the 4.5 points we are getting here especially since Samford just came off a huge win. Citadel is also a better rebounding team as Samford is ranked 338th with a 43.6% total rebound rate. They have also shown the ability to shoot FT's better than Samford by a far margin as they are shooting 80% at home from the charity stripe. Meanwhile their biggest weakness is turnovers averaging 17.4 per game. A lot of that came against some stiff competition, but here today they face Samford's guards who are only forcing 10.5 turnovers per game and rank 224th in the nation in turnovers forced per possession at 19.3%.

Ravens +10 -125 5** NFL POD Ravens +330 0.5* play
Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game.

Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition?

Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver.

3.3* NBA POD

Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game.

Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns).

On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games.

Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many.

[b]Arkansas State -3+100 4** POD[/b]
Kent State will come into this game with their head coach despite him taking a job to coach Purdue. He has been doing two jobs this time, but he said his main goal was to win a bowl game and a MAC championship. He came up close but failed against Northern Illinois and now I think he falls short here against Arkansas State, who may just be the best team they have faced all year long. Arkansas State just has more balance offensively with Ryan Aplin at QB and David Oku at RB compared with Kent State which is a run first team led by dynamic Dri Archer.

Kent States defense is led and reliant on creating mistakes. They have forced 38 on the year and they have 33 sacks, but the problem in this game is Ryan Aplin, the best QB that Kent State has faced all year does not get sacked ranking 19th in fewest sack % and he does not turn the ball over completing 67.7% of his throws and only 4 interceptions while throwing for 23 TDs. Arkansas States defense really played well down the stretch in the red zone holding opponents to 30% TD
s over their last 4 while their offense was scoring at over an 80% clip. Their offense is more balanced than Kent State as I mentioned ranking 14th in third down conversion percentage while Kent State was 86th and only coverted 32% over their last 3 games. Spence Keith is known for turning the ball over for Kent State and I dont think this team can win this game unless they win the turnover battle in a big way, but I dont think it will happen tonight.

4.5** pod

3.3* pod

Bengals +4.5

[b]Pittsburgh +3.5 4.4** ncaaf play of the day[/b]
Well look here maybe the Big East is not nearly as bad as everyone thought. Or maybe Florida was just not motivated to play in the Sugar Bowl. I doubt it, and now the Big East 4-0 vs. the SEC and I think they get another favorable match up here with Pitt having an excellent defense playing inspired football down the stretch. While they lost to Louisville, Syracuse, and Cinci this year they beat a good Rutgers team in dominant fashion. They were also minutes away from beating Notre Dame on their own field but ended up losing by 3. Tino Sunseri has come a long way under Paul Chryst who was the Wisconsin OC for years. It seems Sunseri fixed his issues of throwing interceptions he has just 2 on the season with 19 TDs and has over 3,000 yards thats better than Mississippi's Bo Wallace who threw 15 interceptions and for less yards. I also think despite what the stats say that Pitt has the better running back in Ray Graham. Dont believe me, Graham rushed for 172 yards on 24 carries on Notre Dames elite run defense. Though Miss faced several tough opponents in the SEC they struggled vs. teams that could pass the ball. I think Pitt shows a lot here with Chryst staying on to coach despite all the rumors hes not going anywhere and this team will finally have their head coach for a bowl game unlike the last two years.

Texas AM -3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
This is a rematch of a game last year in Oklahoma where Oklahoma won being +3 in turnover margin. Texas AM has actually lost 8 of their last 9 vs. Oklahoma but I'm confident they'll reverse that here today against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. First off Oklahoma is going ot have a very hard time being 100th in the league allowing over 5 yards per carry going up against A&M who has 4 rushing threats that all average 4.7 ypc or greater including the Heisman winner Johny Manziel.

Their offensive line averages 25lbs more than Oklahoma's weak defensive line. A&M is also 4th in plays per game and like to push the tempo and that's just going to be bad news for an Oklahoma front that lacks any depth on the line and there is a reason their top 4 tacklers are all defensive backs.

On the flip side many could argue that Oklahoma is just as good at passing the ball and A&M ranking 83rd in pass yards allowed are just as bad as Oklahoma is at stopping the run, but I differ. Oklahoma hardly played any other teams that could get to the QB which is a huge reason they are 6th in fewest sack %. A&M is 35th at getting to the QB and Oklahoma faced only two teams better which was Notre Dame who beat them on their own field and Kansas State who also beat them on their own field. In fact Kansas State seems like a spitting image of what Texas A&M is and likes to do but only better and more capable of putting up points. A&M is also 39th in opposing QB rating and once again Oklahoma only faced two better in Notre Dame in TCU which their offense strugled against averaging 16.5pts which won't get it done in this game.

Memphis +2 3.3* pod

Kansas St +8.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Many thought this was going to be the national championship. This game is an interesting because these are two teams that love to run the ball first with Oregon ranking 9th running it 64.25% of the time and Kansas State 12th at 62.8%. Both these teams are also ranked 1 and 2 in points per play with Kansas State being #1. Kansas State is used to playing teams that push the pace facing 6 other teams in the top 25 in points per play while Oregon only played one other which gives you some perspective on the offenses these two defenses have faced.

Kansas State likes to run their offense and hold onto the ball ranking 120th while Oregon is 6th in plays per game, but as mentioned both are good at running the ball, but who is better at stopping it? Kansas State is the answer they are ranked 27th allowing 3.7 ypc, but take out the Baylor game and they would allow just 3.25ypc compared to Oregon who is ranked 63rd allowing 4.2 ypc. Kansas State faced an average opponent ranked 50th in ypc rushing while Oregon faced much weaker competition averaging 65th. Despite that he allowed 200+ 4 times and allowed over 4 ypc 7 times. While Kansas State against better rushing offenses allowed 200+ 1 time and 4.0ypc 2 times.

I think we have already proven that the Big 12 was stronger than the Pac 12 this year as they are 2-0 SU and ATS in head to head match ups this season. Overall the Big 12 is already 5-2 while the Pac 12 is just 2-4. Chip Kelly is just 1-2 in bowl games in his career. Defenses seemed to be able to prepare for this style of offense.

Wisconsin +7 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
This may not be a truly sexy match up as many anticipated before the year started, but this game is going to be one of the better played games in my opinion. For Stanford it is business as usual the team only lost twice in a controversial OT game against Notre Dame and in a weird Thursday night game in Washington. For Wisconsin they started the year slow fired some coaches rebounded before dominating in the Big Ten Championship drubbing Nebraska by the score of 70-31 to come into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum. Wisconsin however is without their head coach who moved on, but taking over is former Wisconsin head coach Barry Alvarez. Alvarez is trying to become the first coach to win a Rose Bowl in three different decades, but here is a look at each team's scheme.

Wisconsin's Scheme:
This is pretty obvious that Wisconsin wants to run the ball. They were 6th in the nation in rushing play % with a 65.9%. They'll go up against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run and was ranked 3rd overall in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin however only faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 25 in rushing offenses. They went 3-1 in those games with none of them being decided by more than a TD. Wisconsin could have several wrinkles in this game that could throw Stanford off guard. James White may spell the QB and run out of the wild cat and when they do decide to throw the ball it will be to Jared Abbrederis who is the best receiver on the field and could take over this game if both run defenses hold up. However, Stanford despite giving up a lot of yardage to QB's has been great at limiting them to just yards and not TD's allowing just 114 QB rating and 12 TD's and 14 interceptions. Now let's take a look at Stanford's scheme to see if they are a mortal lock to win this game.

Stanford's Scheme:
Much like the Badgers the Cardinals love to run the ball ranking 35th in rushing play %. Over the last 3 games though they ran even more and that resulted in a Pac 12 Championship. They to went through some growing pains at the QB position before settling on Kevin Hogan who is only a freshmen, but played lights out converting 73% of his throws. Stanford however will have its hands full going against a top 15 defense that can stop the run and the pass. Wisconsin really only struggled stopping the run against Nebraska. Take that game out and this unit was ranked 10th nationally allowing just 3.10 ypc. Stanford runs a pro style offense and may have to turn to Hogan to win this game which he's fully capable of doing as we saw in the Pac 12 Championship.

At the end of the day neither team has been known for getting blown out. Their defenses are just too strong, but I think what we saw from UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game is a sign of things to come. Wisconsin plays physical running ball and Monte Ball will have a nice game. On the outside Wisconsin has more of a passing threat with Abbrederis and a better pass defense while their rushing offense has been better too. LB Mike Taylor and Chris Borland will dominate on defense for Wisconsin.

3.3* NCAAB POD

Iowa State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay, so these teams met in week 1 and Tulsa lost..Normally I'd lean toward the revenge factor, but these teams are totally different at this point in the season. I think Tulsa is content winning their conference championship. Meanwhile you have Paul Rhoads coaching this team as a blue collar bunch. They play a gritty style of football that is hard not to root for and back.

The difference in this game is going to be Iowa State's defense despite missing Jake Knott they will be able to concentrate on the run as Tulsa is a one dimensional offense. Iowa State faced many offenses this season that could throw and pass the ball. Iowa State turned to a freshman QB late in the season that provided a spark in Sam Richardson. Richardson did face some weak pass defenses, but I think his ability to avoid the rush will allow him to win this game along with his talented groups of running backs.

Lions +3 -105 5.25* NFL POD/ Lions +145 2* play;
The Lions are desperate for some sort of positive energy to close out the season and beating the Bears and knocking them out of the playoffs would be just that thing. Honestly the Bears don't deserve to be road favorites at this point. They have lost 5 of 7 games and even though the Lions have been unable to beat this team and have lost 7 straight themselves they are a team that can beat any team in the NFL. The last match up they dominated against the Bears sacking Cutler 5 times and holding him to 150 yards passing. The difference was Cutler made no mistakes and the Lions turned the ball over 4 times. In the end the game was still there for the Lions despite their poor play as they lost 13-7. That all happened in Chicago and now this game being in Detroit with Matt Forte banged up. I just see the Lions being able to get over the hump with something to look forward to next year.

3.3* TOP PLAY ON S. UTAH +3

Texas +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before I get into all the stats I have some key stats about Texas and Oregon State and who they played. Oregon State faced 4 top 50 rushing offenses and 3 top 50 passing offenses on the year and overall that led to a very good defensive statistical season, and on paper it appears that they have the better defense than Texas however I don't believe that's the case. Texas had to face many balanced offenses in Big 12 play as they faced off against 6 top 25 passing teams and 8 top 50 rushing offenses. Now they get to face an offense that's ranked 99th in ypc rushing average and obviously can pass the ball with some of the better teams, but Texas now gets to sick their 31st sack % group against Oregon State.

Texas sack unit is even under rated really they faced a ton of QB's and OL's that get rid of the ball quick and protect their QB. I think Oregon State is making a major mistake going with Cody Vaz at QB who is not nearly as accurate as Sean Mannion completing less than 60% of his throws. He has not turned the ball over and that seems to be the main reason they are making the change. Oregon State's defense meanwhile will have to face a balanced offense that leads with a power run game. Texas is ranked 11th in QB rating and 38th in rushing ypc average. Oregon State did not play any teams with the exception of Oregon that had a balanced offense and could hurt them with both the run and the pass and to me that will be the difference in this game. There is a reason Texas has converted over 50% of their third downs and over 70% of their red zone trips into TD's. Oregon on the other hand only 34% of their third downs and their red zone defense is just not quite as good as Texas and Oregon State went against worst offenses as we mentioned earlier.

At the end of the day some times bowl games come down to who is motivated and this game will be played in Texas and Texas is facing a 13th ranked team in Oregon State so they should be up for this game. Also we just saw Baylor another Big 12 team embarrass UCLA last night and that came was played on the West Coast.

Rutgers +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* POD; Rutgers +8.5/U48 teaser 3.3* play
One thing is for sure both of these teams are bummed to be playing in this game. However, I can't back the Hokies in this game at all not only is Rutgers 5-0 in Bowl Games, but they are better at the things that have hurt Virginia Tech all year which I'll get to in a second.

First of all Virginia Tech is a team that has leaned on the run in recent years and this year has been no different they are ranked 58th with a 53% rushing play call. However, Tech was 82nd averaging just 3.9 ypc, and Rutgers is ranked 9th allowing 3ypc and 2.5 over their last 3. This will quickly turn the game over to the hands of Logan Thomas and that's not a good thing at least this season. Thomas is 85th in the nation in pass efficiency offense and has completed only 52.6% of his throw while throwing for 17 TD and 14 interceptions. Rutgers pass defense meanwhile has forced 29 turnovers and 16 interceptions while only allowing 12 TD's.

Rutgers is better at forcing the turnovers and Virginia Tech has already lost to two Big East teams this year. Virginia Tech better look out for DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene who help fuel a team that had 85 TFL and 41 QB hurries. Virginia Tech's offensive line is leaky and allowed 40 QB hurries on Thomas this year. Rutgers 41 QB hurries is more than Arizona State, South Carolina and Boise State combined who are all in the top 5 in sack % defense.

Although Rutgers defense is impressive Virginia Tech's is too ranking ahead of Rutgers in third down defense and also pretty stout against the run and pass, but at some point VT will have to stack the box and Rutgers has been capable of protecting their QB only allowed 8 sacks all year. That will give them one on coverage and Gary Nova can make the throws deep to his big talented receivers. Brandon Coleman, Tim Wright , and Mark Harrisson are all 6-3+ in height and Virginia Tech has had the tendency to give up big plays all year long.

Another x factor has to be special teams in this match up. Virginia Tech has been prone to poor punting this year and Rutgers has a tendency to block kicks over the years look for that to be a huge advantage in this game.

UCLA -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love UCLA here, Baylor really came on strong at the end of the year while UCLA over achieved, but UCLA will play a defense that can not stop a nose bleed. Baylor was dead last allowing 58% conversions on third down and Johnathan Franklin should have a field day. Baylor's defense has gotten by forcing turnovers and taking them back for TD's they were 1-4 on the road and with this game being in San Diego I'm guessing their will be far many more UCLA fans in attendance.

Baylor actually has run the ball a ton this year and UCLA was very good at stopping the run all year. Baylor is known more for their passing game, but Baylor runs the ball 53% of the time which you wouldn't think. At some point they will be forced to throw in this game and UCLA will bring it's 6th ranked pass rush something Baylor is not used to seeing. Baylor on the season saw an average 79th sack rush so facing UCLA is going to be something that will tilt the turnovers in UCLA's favor. UCLA actually forced more turnovers than Baylor this year and will have more balance on offense.

4.4* NBA POD

Arizona 3.3* POD

4.5* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY

Giants -120 5.5* NFL POD
Giants are getting back some key players this week in Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukmara and Kenny Phillips which should help them get a must win game here today in Baltimore. Baltimore continues to struggle on both sides of the ball and have already backed into the playoffs. I expect the Giants to be able to win this game and it starts up front where the Ravens have not been the same old Ravens ranking 19th in sack %. Eli Manning and the Giants are #1 as Manning is only sacked 3.17% of his drop backs. That will be huge for Manning today if he can keep up that pace and that should allow him to move the ball all day long as he hooks up with his talented receiving corps. The Giants should be able to continue to convert third downs where they are ranked 11th on the year, but have converted 50% over their last 3. The Giants did actually move the ball against the Falcons but the TO's uncharacteristically hurt them. Baltimore meanwhile is 23rd in the league in converting third downs and have a 28% mark over their last 3.

Giants need this game and they have more talent in my opinion because the Ravens are just banged up all over the place. This is typical Giant fashion needing 2 wins to get into the playoffs and I think they will get them. They are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games and the line is just low enough to still take them in this spot.

Lions +4 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons just came off a huge win over the Giants, the defending Super Bowl Champions so naturally this line will be inflated just a tad. The fact that the Lions came off a bad loss to the Cardinals makes this a huge play for me. Teams that have beat the SB champs are just 18-30 ATS the following week and over the last 10 years teams with 11 wins as road favorites are 9-29 ATS. I expect the Lions to play with a chip on their shoulder and being home on the holidays is a huge advantage in this spot.

Jazz +9 3.3* NBA POD
I think we are getting tremendous value on the Jazz in this spot and I feel they match up well against the red hot Heat. However, the Heat are in a tough spot in their own as they look ahead to Christmas when they play the Thunder. I don't think the Heat believe it takes their full attention to dismiss the Jazz, but they will get the Jazz best. Jazz also have a couple extra days rest compared to the Heat and the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record so most of their ATS dominance has come against weak opponents.

3.3* NCAAB POD

Washington +5.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the Huskies here today against Boise State. Washington may have lacked an identity on offense all year, but they have more talent on offense than Boise State as junior Keith Price should lead his team to a victory. Price will connect early and often with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins who in my opinion is the best TE in the nation. Price also has another option in Kasen Williams who is another sophomore with an NFL future. Both had 6 TD's this year as Price threw a total of 18, but the bigger key is whether or not Washington can run the ball. Bishop Sankey really came on strong at the end of the year with 15 TD's in all and should be able to help the Huskies control the clock vs Boise State.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that

San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That

Twolves +4 -115 4.6* NBA POD
This is a huge game for Minnesota and for the Thunder this is just another game. I actually think the Twolves match up extremely well vs. the Thunder despite going 0-4 last year both of their home games were decided by 1 and 4 points and one went to OT. On the road they lost by 8, and 9 (which was in OT). The Thunder are in an interesting spot here playing on 0 days rest and their starters combined for 160+ minutes last night and they'll face the Heat on Christmas next which is drawing tons of hype. Minnesota just got their buts whooped by the Heat but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss by 10+. Look for Minnesota to come away with a win here.

3.3* NBA POD

GIANTS +1 5.5* NFL PLAY OF THE DAY

Toledo +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%.

Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up.

Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage.

Eagles +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Eagles seem like they are on the right track after two games starting Nick Foles. Andy Reid did a great job taking away any kind of controversy by naming Foles the starter for the rest of the year which bodes well for Foles confidence. The biggest thing in this match up to me is Foles ability to move in the pocket and make accurate passes with the Bengals pass rush coming at him. Bengals are #1 in sack %, but Foles proved last year he can do that. Despite getting sacked 6 times he looked poised and got better as the game went on.

The Eagles defense also showed up and held Josh Freeman to 178 yards and 14-34. The Bengals I feel are quite over rated and the public likes them because of the big names like AJ Green and they continue to be backed, but I can not trust this team on the road. They really have not beaten anyone and they are very bad on third downs on both sides of the ball which is a key stat especially for winning on the road. They are 20th in third down defense and 25th in third down offense. Bengals really struggle on the back end despite having the #1 sack % team as they are 15th in QB rating and they have struggled against bad teams on the road against the run allowing 4.5 ypc. The Eagles have proven of late that they can win with the run and the passing game and I expect them to be right in this game.

MTSU +2 3.3* NCAAB POD
This is an interesting match up and one that either team could win, but I'm taking the points even if Belmont is home here. MTSU won last year in shocking fashion, but this team is the real deal and they match up very well with Belmont who relies on their senior guards and three point attempts. They are 3rd in the nation in three points made, but 41% of their shots are from beyond the arch which is 29th in the country. It just so happens they face a team that is backed by strong defense from the guards. They are long and physical and have held opponents to 29.7% from three. My other favorite stat is rebound % and MTSU should have another significant advantage here as they are ranked 41st while Belmont is ranked 267th. Belmont also has a bigger game up ahead with Kansas on Saturday they could be peaking ahead to.

Bobcats +8.5 4.4* NBA POD; Bobcats +360 0.6* play
Charlotte has been in these games at home and if it weren't for a slow start the other night we would have won on our POD with them facing the Warriors. I'm still not sold on this Clippers team right now especially on the road. They are also coming off a huge win last night in Chicago in a late start. The game was on ESPN and started at 9:30pm ET and now they travel on 0 days rest where they play their worst defense. This is also their 4th game in 5 days and they did win last night. The Clippers rely heavily on the road on their ability to force turnovers. Chicago while they are a dominant defense is 25th in turnovers per game and had 17 last game that really cost them here. The Bobcats are 8th in the league in fewest turnovers. I just feel 8.5 points is far too many for a team on the road playing on 0 days rest and 4th game in 5 days. I don't see them taking the Bobcats seriously and the Bobcats are still trying to win a game against a meaningful opponent and this would be a good one and a good situation. I would not be shocked if they do pull the outright victory and I'll lay 0.6** on it.

Knicks -3 3.3* NBA POD I love the Knicks in this spot with a chance to rebound after losing in OT to the Nets the first time in their own building. I look for the Knicks to rebound here with a strong effort and an easy win. Not only may the Nets be without Brook Lopez, but the Knicks will have Jason Kidd in this game someone they didn't have last time. Kidd makes this team flow and is a winner. I see the Knicks continuing to stay hot while the Nets continue to struggle.

4.4* ncaab play of the day

Texans +6 4.4* NFL POD
The line has moved like crazy today, but I think there is tremendous value still on the Texans and I will thank the line movements. These two teams are even and both teams have not played the most challenging schedules. I've seen both teams face my team the NY Jets and neither one looked more impressive. The Patriots have gotten very lucky in many games because they are scoring points off turnovers. The Texans just don't turn the ball over and in fact are #3 in turnover margin. I think the Texans will play their best game of the season tonight and they certainly have the ingredients to upset the Patriots.

What are those ingredients? Pass rush, and a balanced offensive attack. Let me attack the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are extremely vulnerable against the pass. They're ranked 23rd in sack % and 29th vs. the pass. However, teams that can run the ball like the Texans can have had the most success scoring points because the Patriots have trouble stopping them in the red zone. The Bills scored 31, 28 and have a great running game, the Seahawks scored 24, and the Ravens scored 31. Texans arguably have the best offense that the Patriots have faced all year long. The Broncos were really not clicking just yet when they visited the Pats in week 5.

Next, the pass rush. It's not ironic that the Patriots have struggled vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in pass rush, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and even Denver. It's also no coincidence that New England is 22nd in pass play %. I really don't think this team trusts its pass protection and they've done so well running the ball they are smart enough to know they don't need to air it out 40+ times a game. Well the Texans are good at stopping the run and are ranked 5th in sack % led by J.J. Watt who could single handily ruin Tom Brady's night. Texans are also #1 in third down defense (ironically Arizona and Miami are in the top 5). New England won by just 7 at Miami ( a team that lacks an offense like the Texans) and lost at home to Arizona (a team which we have seen is the worst in the league). The Patriots are 29th in third down defense and worse at home.

Red Zone is another key aspect in this game. Who can bend and not break and who can punch it in? Well it's obvious both teams can punch it in they are both averaging 69% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games and are both in the top 5. Houston however has been far more dominant on the defensive end, 4th overall and they only allow 36% in the red zone while the Patriots are 23rd and allow 68% at home. I really look for this game to be close throughout and I give the Texans despite some injuries to have a real shot at winning the game. Brady will struggle at times especially without Gronkowski still.

Bobcats +5 4.4* NBA POD; Bobcats +2.5 1H 2.2* play
Bobcats played well against a few really good teams at home of late losing by 2 to the Knicks, 6 to Portland, and 6 to the Sixers and then they were destroyed by the Spurs by 30. Teams often come back strong in their next game after a big time blow out and they get the Warriors who are riding high winning 3 straight and getting a lot of love. The Warriors think they can skip this game mentality and look ahead to the Miami Heat who they have on Wednesday. I think the Bobcats could seriously steal this game if not play really well in the first half.

Saints +5 5.5* NFL POD; Saints +195 1* bonus
Not only are the Saints still alive, but they are drawing motivation from the Giants playoff run a year ago. This Saints team absolutely believes they are still alive in the playoff hunt and they've had 4 extra days to prepare for this game. It's just a tough spot for the Giants here today who are starting to trend downward. Drew Brees in his last 3 games vs. the Giants 60% pass completions 864 yards 9 TD and 0 INT's. The Saints have played well vs. the Giants and I don't see any signs of that changing because the Giants have not shown they can be a dominant defense or team in home games.

They have played worse at home on defense than on the road. They're 27th in run defense overall allowing 4.6 ypc but at home they allow 5.0 yards per carry. For the Saints that's a great sign because they have relied on their deep stable of running backs far more than in years past. Brees on the other hand will go up against a Giants defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at home allowing a 96.4 and 106 in their last 3 games combined. The Saints should have their way with the Giants in the red zone specifically because they can run and pass efficiently. The Saints have the #1 red zone offense at 70% TD's, the Giants are 22nd in the red zone 48.98% in the red zone. The Saints defense is also tough in the red zone and that's how they have escaped for wins in the past. That mentality will help them cover this odd spread as I don't see them losing by more than 4 if they lose at all. Either way Brees will bounce back from a couple of bad games to lead this team. The extra couple days allowed them to find things they can exploit against the Giants. Saints are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss while the Giants are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Rutgers +1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Despite having one of their best players back in Momo Jones, Iona is not the same. They even are moving Momo to the point and I think that's going to take some time playing against some of the better teams this year. Jones had a great year last year playing off Scott Machado and this will be a bit different. Iona also has 9 new players this year and lost a ton of talent from last year's squad. Meanwhile Rutgers returns 4 starters and got a ton better when Wally Judge decided to transfer from Kansas State. Judge gives this Rutgers team balance as it solidifies their front court to go along side Miller and Johnson. This team should dominate on the boards tonight and they have capable perimeter players in Carter/Mack/Seagears. I think we are getting line value here as both of these teams have played St Peters and Rutgers did not look very good, but it was their first game of the year. Rutgers has an extra 4 days rest so if Iona decides to push it Rutgers should be able to keep up.

Bulls +2.5 3.3* NBA POD
Rebounding and defense. That's how the Bulls are winning right now. They are ranked 2nd in rebounding percentage to the Knicks 27th rank and should have the advantage on the boards. The Knicks come off a great game without Carmello Anthony against the Heat. Really the Heat play down to the competition, and the when they knew Carmello was not going to play you could almost see them not take them as seriously. Meanwhile the Knicks went on to hit 18 three's, but going against the Bulls that won't happens as the Bulls have only allowed 27% shooting from the perimeter and are #2 overall in three point defense. Bulls will be motivated to have this game and I think they will win it.

Army +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD; Army +240 1* play
Even the Army coach admits that this game means more than going to a bowl game. So while I don't think Navy is looking ahead to their bowl game I do believe they are not as focused as Army. Up for grabs is the commander in chief trophy which goes to the service academy that wins the round robin between Army/Navy/Air Force. Both teams already beat Air Force so this game has more than sentimental value.

This game is bigger for Army who has lost 10 straight times to Navy, but has been much closer in recent years because of Trent Steelman who is playing in his last game as the Army QB. He'll go up against Navy's freshmen QB. Army also has a veteran leader in Nate Combs playing in his last game as the leader of the defense. Although it's a unit that just got shredded in their last game by Temple's Montel Harris one has to believe this group was already preparing for Navy knowing they weren't going bowling. I think that only gives us more value in this point spread.

There were many games Army could have won that would have put them in the bowl picture if you look through the season. Really if they won some of those games this could have been more like a 3 point spread in my opinion so I think we are getting a few points here and great value. Let's take a look at some of the games. Army played well at home all season with the exception of their last game. They even nearly beat BCS buster Northern Illinois, but fell 40-41. There was a loss to Kent State sprinkled in but they beat Boston College, and Air Force.

This game is pretty simple in terms of who is going to win or whether or not it's going to be a close game. 3rd down conversions and turnovers. Army has had issues turning the ball over all year which has cost them big time, but at home they are +0.7 turnover margin per game while Navy is -0.5 on the road. Navy also is 103rd in forcing turnovers and 92nd in fumble recovery %. Army not used to playing defenses that don't force turnovers. 3rd down conversion percentages have been pretty equal only Army is better offensively and defensively. Defensively Navy is 117th and allowing over 50% on the road while Army is 101st, but have allowed just 41% over their last 3. Offensively Navy is 59th while Army is 25th and converting 50% over their last 3. I think the experience of Army's QB Steelman and the preparation of Army's experience and will to win this game and have something to celebrate will be the difference.

iowa St +3.5 (4.4* POD) Iowa State has a lot of veterans led by McGee and Clyborn their two leading scorers. Meanwhile Iowa has played well thus far but has got beaten by the "good teams." Iowa is also very very young and I don't see a huge advantage playing at home against an instate rival. I look for Iowa State to win this game out right tonight with their veteran leadership.

Manhattan -3.5 2.2* bonus

76ers +2 3.3* nba pod
I see that we have a ton of line value here with the Sixers. Both teams played the same team in their last game (Twolves). Both teams played them at home while the Celtics controlled the game and the Sixers got blown out. Because of that Vegas knows they can get away from setting the line a point or so higher. Not to mention Rajon Rondo coming back which I feel is a bit over rated and the oddsmakers are giving him and the Celtics too much credit. The Sixers on the other hand will have an extra day of rest and have also played the Celtics tough at home going 6-1 ATS over their last 7. Sixers also have played well following double digit losses at home 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that has happened, but at the end of the day I feel the Sixers will rebound and there is tremendous line value given the circumstances. I expect Boston to seek revenge tomorrow night when the two teams meet in Boston.

Raiders +10.5 4.4* NFL POD These teams know each other well since they play 2 times a year, and being double digit favorites on the road is just too much for even the Broncos who will be traveling on a short week. The Raiders have been tough in games at home this season or at least their offense has been more capable and getting McFadden back this week will definitely help make them more balanced against the Broncos. The Broncos on the other hand have the Ravens next week which is a more crucial game to their season success despite this being a division game. Broncos beat the Ravens next week and they could be on their way to a bye in the playoffs. Now Peyton Manning led teams are not usually victims of looking ahead, but the Raiders want to prove that they are not as bad as their record indicates. I also don't think the Broncos are as good as this line. They've played a lot of bad teams lately and have been covering the spread 6 out of their last 9 games becoming a big public backed team. Meanwhile the Raiders are a team that have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5, but remain a capable team to beat anyone at home. I think we are getting tons of value in this spot.

3.3** play

4.4** top play

3.3*

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD
I get it the Bengals are surging right now winners of 3 straight and the Chargers are losers of 6 of 7, so it's no wonder that they are home dogs on Sunday to the Bengals, but this is a desperate Chargers team right now. The Bengals really have not played well in San Diego. It's a long trip and they have lost 5 of 6 since 1992. This is clearly their most challenging road game on the season as their road schedule has been pretty easy.

On the other side the Chargers have had a brutal schedule with no easy wins. They already played the Broncos twice, Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, and on the road against an under rated Tampa team. I think they finally get a game in their own building with against a team playing with too much confidence. Andy Dalton has tossed 9 TD and 0 INT's in his last three games, but a closer look at those games and he faced some bad defenses. I'm not just talking about against the pass which was 32nd, 30th, and 13th, but also against the run meaning Benjarvis Green-Ellis has helped with balanced as they have faced run defenses ranked 24th, 28th, and 22nd. Now on the road against the Chargers will be a different challenge. Although the Chargers are ranked 22nd against the pass they have faced some really good QB's already, and their run defense is ranked 6th against the run. That means the Chargers can at least take one aspect of the Bengals offense away making them one dimensional. The Bengals rushing offense is not that good to begin with so I look for the Chargers to really concentrate on stopping the pass.

On the other side of the ball Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been solid at times, but the biggest issue has been the turnovers. Well the Bengals defense is 29th in takeaways on the road and have allowed a 117 QB rating over the last three games alone. They also struggle against the run allowing 4.9 ypc in their last 3 and 4.6 ypc on the road this year. They're ranked 23rd against the run and that's good news for the Chargers who should have success and balance offensively. Chargers will have more success on third downs where they are ranked 13th overall and convert 41.7% at home while the Bengals are 27th and are only converting 28.5% on the road. When they face defense that can shut down their run they find it very difficult to convert because they go into a lot of 3rd and longs.

Wisconsin +3.5 -115 5.5* POD Wisconsin +1.5 2.2* 1Half
It appears LB Chris Borland will return which is a huge boost, as Boorland commented that he will play in this game. Even without them the defense did a great job vs. Ohio State and Penn State allwoing 3.6 and 3.5 ypc in two OT losses, but none of that matters as they go up against Nebraska with revenge in the Big Ten Championship.

IN the first match up Wisconsin led 20-3 at half time before getting dominated in the second half and losing on the road to Nebraska. The difference was home field advantage to be honest and the fact that Nebraska ran the ball better and stopped the run better. Wisconsin is a totally different team now Montee Ball's season completely turned around and Nebraska who held Wisconsin to 1.4 ypc in that game are allowing 5.5 ypc on the road this year. Wisconsin also should have a healthy Abredaries who torched Nebraska for 142 yards and a TD.

Nebraska boasts the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are also 18th in opponent pass play % as opponents only average 42% passing percentage. When teams do throw On Nebraska they can have success in the play action which is what Wisconsin does well. Wisconsin though is running the ball a ton 70% of the time in their last 3 games and they are doing it well. That's really what this game comes down to and on a neutral field I give Wisconsin the edge. IN conference play they averaged 5.14 ypc to Nebraska's 4.70 and they averaged 5.69 over their last 3 games against good opponents. Their defense allowed 3.68 ypc while Nebraska allowed 4.16 ypc and we already mentioned their struggles to stop the run on the road. Montee Ball also has 7 TD's in 2 games vs. Nebraska.

Wisconsin will send Nebraska a different look with their third starting QB in 5th year senior Curt Phillips who has played well. Wisconsin is catching a ton of crap for backing into this game losing to both Ohio State and Penn State the two teams ahead of them in the division but are ineligible and I think they come out and dominate this game. They did the same thing last year after losing to Michigan State in the regular season only to get revenge in the Championship game.

Nebraska really struggled in pre snap motions in the first match up and I expect them to lose the turnover battle in this game they are -8 on the year while Wisconsin is +5 in conference play. It won't help that Nebraska is without two senior linemen starters one on offense and one on defense for this game. They have also come from behind in 5 of their

UCLA +8.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) UCLA +270 1* bonus
I had UCLA on a strong lean last week, but I really couldn't help but hold off knowing that this team already knew they were heading to the Pac 12 Championship no matter what. It was only a matter of who they felt like facing more. Oregon or Stanford? One had to wonder if they led up a bit in this game or came out flat and after watching the game tonight, since it was only on the PAC 12 channel on Saturday I am convinced that UCLA did hold back as they played one of their worst if not their worst most sloppy game of the year.

One word describes it all in what decided the game, "penalties." UCLA had 12 penalties for 135 yards, and several were back breakers. It actually cost them probably double the 135 yards because of plays it took away and also forced them into many third and longs. UCLA converted plenty of third downs early and it was obvious that they could give Stanford issues with RB Johnathan Franklin and their dynamic TE Joseph Fauria who could not be stopped. Still it was penalty after penalty and some bad throws by QB Hundley as well as some key drops. It was clear that UCLA did not come ready to play and were still hung over from defeating USC at home the week before.

Looking at the stat line you would think Stanford did what they wanted, but UCLA was solid on third down and with the exception of two big runs by Stefan Taylor they held the run in check. They even had several tackles for loss on first downs, but penalties took over the game and probably gave Stanford at least 10 points or took away 7 points from their own. By the end of the game it was obvious that Stanford was the more desperate team as they seemed to empty the playbook or at least show all of their goods. I saw the wild cat, I saw their jumbo package, I saw them turn to passing on first down because the run was not working. Stanford's offense is not that creative to begin with and I don't anticipate them changing at home. They've held a steady game plan all year. Run the ball 56% of the time, home or away and even with the success of Kevin Hogan they have actually run the ball more 60% of the time over the last three games and that falls into the strength of the UCLA Bruins who are among the best in the conference at stopping the run and even on the road they held opponents to 3.49 ypc which was better than their home stat. Their rushing offense on the flip side was also better on the road this year and watching the game film you could see Johnathan Franklin was just one play away from breaking it. He's looked the best against Stanford's run defense that has been dominant and I would argue he's the best RB in America.

The fact that they have an accurate QB to go along with that is a dangerous recipe. Hundley just seemed to have an off game last week and I think this entire team is going to bounce back and play with discipline because it is the PAC 12 Championship. They were here last year and didn't deserve it (USC Suspension) and got blown out by Oregon and this year they'd like to make a statement especially with everyone down on them again.

I'll add this last bit of info. Stanford has not been dominant really in any game this year against a worthy opponent. Even at home their games have all been decided by a TD or less. 4, 7, 6, 7, and 3 points respectfully and they should have lost to Oregon State. They did beat Duke by 37 points, and dominated California 21-3, and Colorado 48-0 on the road, but those are bad teams. UCLA is a very good team with a solid defense and a balanced offense that can move the ball so long as they are disciplined.

Rutgers -2.5 -115 (buy 1/2) 4.6** NCAAF POD
Rutgers has not beaten Louisville in quite some time and this is the perfect spot for them to seek their revenge. Rutgers is loaded with experienced players and leadership on both sides of the ball while Louisville still remains a young team that is struggling to the finish line. A lot of these players on Louisville are playing their 12th game and it's a lot in college football. They are banged up at RB losing their leading rusher Senorise Perry, and QB as Terry Bridgewater hurt his leg and broke his non-throwing arm. Bridgewater will play, but he'll be forced into the shutgun for the entire game.

That's a huge advantage for Rutgers as Louisville shrinks it's playbook. Louisville is struggling big time to run the ball just 75 yards in their last 2 games combined and it's no coincidence that it was their first two losses of the season. Well running against Rutgers with injuries is going to be even more impossible. Rutgers is 13th in ypc run defense in the nation and ranks higher than Uconn who just dominated this group up front. I see DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene leading the way to plugging the running game. Rutgers defense on the back end is also very good they have more interceptions than TD allowed. Louisville has been very good at limiting turnovers, but they have not faced many teams that can stop the run and the pass and this is clearly the best defense they faced all year. Louisville's road schedule was extremely weak playing two of the worst teams in college football and struggling against winless Southern Miss, and FIU and then they were dominated by Syracuse, a team Rutgers is better than. Meanwhile Rutgers only lost was to Kent State (before their look ahead loss to Pitt (off a bye) last week), a team that will be going to a BCS game possibly if they can win the MAC, a conference that's better than the Big East in my opinion.

The line is low because Rutgers offense has struggled, and Gary Nova has 10 interceptions over his last 4 games, but Louisville is 70th in takeaways, and 124th on the road. That's probably because they are unable to create 3rd and long situations and get off the field on third down as well as create any sort of pressure. To put things in perspective, Louisville is -8 in tackles for loss (allowing more), and -3 in sacks and Rutgers is +18 in tackles for loss and +10 in sacks. Louisville also allowed more than 50% conversions to 3 of their 4 road opponents and 52% overall. Their road opponents were ranked 76th, 82nd, and 72nd in third downs and Syracuse converted 73% and was ranked 11th. This may be one of the few games in a while Rutgers can convert on third down which should be a major advantage. Don't sleep on Rutgers running game as Louisville's run defense is quite vulnerable allowing 4.62 ypc in conference play and 4.30 ypc on the road. Rutgers relies on the run 57% of the time over their last 3 games alone and even though Jawan Jamison is a little banged up SAvon Huggins has shown he can carry the load (179 yards at Cincinatti - only allows 3.86 ypc in conference play) - Huggins did that on the road and now he's home against a Louisville run defense that's worst. Louisville will have to be careful about stacking the box, because Rutgers has a trio of WR that if left alone create major mismatches. Brandon Coleman is 6-6, Mark Harrison is 6-3, and Tim Wright is 6-4.

Apart from those advantages Rutgers also has the advantage in the red zone as they have converted 69% of their attempts into TD's at home while Louisville is allowing 78.5% on the road. Rutgers defense also has been great in the red zone allowing just 40% conversions and 37.5% in conference play. Louisville will be really predictable when they get down there out of the shotgun and I anticipate some interceptions from Bridgewater in this game that will allow Rutgers to cover this spread. Rutgers is 4-1 at home and their wins have come by an average of nearly 18 points.

Celtics -3.5 4.4* NBA POD
This is a nice spot for the Celtics despite not playing well. This is another team that seems to step up the competition when they need to. I think tonight is another opportunity to do that with the Nets coming in with a ton of hype. On the Nets side I think they are due for a huge hang over here after they beat the Knicks at home for the first time in their new building. That was huge in itself, but it took OT, and people outside NY do not realize how big of a deal that game was. It

Celtics -3.5 4.4* NBA POD
This is a nice spot for the Celtics despite not playing well. This is another team that seems to step up the competition when they need to. I think tonight is another opportunity to do that with the Nets coming in with a ton of hype. On the Nets side I think they are due for a huge hang over here after they beat the Knicks at home for the first time in their new building. That was huge in itself, but it took OT, and people outside NY do not realize how big of a deal that game was. It

NC State +6 2.2* play
At this point I feel Michigan is a bit over rated and NC State is a bit under rated which gives us good value on Tuesday with 6 points. NC State should stay in this game the entire way as they seem to match up well with Hardaway and the Wolverines. Michigan beat Kansas State in their last game giving them a little credit with the odds. Now they face an NC State team that runs a tricky offense under Coach Gottfried. It

3.3* nba pod
The Suns have been in 9 of their last 10 games and even had shots at winning many of those. Meanwhile the Cavs come into this game playing their 4th game in 5 nights after being out on the road. I see a hang over here as they hung tough against the Grizzlies. The Suns will clearly take this team seriously since they had to come back against them at home, but I like the way the Suns have played of late and they should be motivated to win tonight considering they are on a rough road trip.

Giants -2.5 4.4* NFL POD The Giants are desperate for a positive vibe and now they face the Packers at home off a bye. The media, and the general public are now all down on the Giants who just a few weeks ago everyone was saying was a lock to return to the Super Bowl when they defeated the 49ers on the road. This team constantly plays to the competition. They seem to always come up with their big games against the really good teams in the league. The Giants also with extra time to prepare are 6-0 in their last 6 games off a bye week which includes two Super Bowl victories. The Packers offensive line is still among one of the worst and I think this is the game we see the return of the Giants dominant pass rush. The Packers are a one dimensional team that should have issues on the road on Sunday night protecting their QB. Packers are 29th and allow Rodgers to get sacked 10.88% of the time on the road while the Giants are 2nd only sacked 3.43% of the time.

3.3* POD

USC +5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); USC +190 2* bonus
This is bigger than any bowl game that USC will get and they'll face the #1 team in the country on their home field 2 days after Thanksgiving Day. Notre Dame has to travel across the country and for once they won't have a scheduling spot in their favor. This will be just Notre Dame's 4th road game and while they got by Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Boston College this will be a different challenge.

USC, has the right combination of things working for them in this match up, and I'm not concerned with Matt Barkley being out, Max Whittek is said to have the better arm, and he's had an entire week to practice and he's got plenty of confidence. Oh he's also got the best receivers in the country in Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. What I mean by the right ingredients is USC has the tools that have given Notre Dame issues in all aspects. Notre Dame has not faced any good passing teams this year with the exception of Oklahoma who are ranked 8th and Landry Jones completed nearly 70% of his passes and 356 yards. Notre Dame's offense which is one dimensional has also struggled vs. good defensive lines who can establish a pass rush and stop the run. Check, USC is ranked 17th in sack % with a 10.42% rank and they have been so good at stopping the run not even their impressive 3.6 ypc defense in home games tells the true story as they gave up 7 yards per carry to Oregon, but every other opponent could not average more than 3 yards. Notre Dame is not Oregon offensively, and they struggled against Stanford, and BYU two other teams that can get to the QB. Everett Gholston has had a lot of poise this year but I'm afraid that's about to end, he's only completing 59% of his throws on the season.

Notre Dame only throws 39% of the time on the road, but as I mentioned USC can stop the run and at some point you can only beat USC if you throw the ball and keep up with them, because Notre Dame's secondary is extremely vulnerable and who is better to take advantage than Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. I think the Matt Barkley injury is a bit over rated and being home is a huge advantage in this match up. Look for Lee to have a field day on the Irish secondary. USC is just as strong in red zone defense as the Irish are, but the difference is USC has the ability for big plays that won't require scoring inside the 20. As good as Notre Dames defense has been they have only allowed 35% conversions on third down which is not that impressive for a top 5 defense. USC actually has arguably the most balanced attack that Notre Dame has seen all year and unfortunately for Notre Dame I think USC will make this the game of their year that was supposed to be completely different.

3.3* POD

Arkansas +12.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
This game is Arkansas bowl game since they won't be going to one and there will actually be a trophy for the Golden Boot. LSU has cruised by in their season being on the road for just 3 games in which they had just 42 points combined and scored more than 12 points ( the point spread) once. Arkansas 81st defense is nothing to be excited about, but their weakness is against the pass 119th in the country, while they have been stout against the run 26th and are 24th allowing just 3.6 ypc. LSU has always been a run first team and are in the tops in the nation in rushing play %, but they have only averaged 3.89 ypc on the road and 3.2 ypc in their last 3. I don't see this game getting out of hand based on LSU's offense even if they are starting to become more balanced, because Arkansas has the offense to move the ball.

Arkansas started this season as bad as you could and most of the coaching staff will be coaching their last game for this team which is led by 21 seniors including Tyler Wilson at QB and WR Cobi Hamilton who has 80 catches for 1,237 yards. LSU's secondary has not been challenged by anyone. They have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in passing attempts and that was Texas A&M who led LSU 12-0 before they ended up turning the ball over a ton. You could make an argument that Tyler Wilson is the best QB that LSU has faced all year and you better bet he wants to go out on top as a senior, saying "We've got one game left, and we know this is it. So why not go out there and light it up one more time." I don't see a significant edge for LSU in this game even on third down LSU on the road is only converting 19%, and 38% in conference play, while Arkansas is converting nearly 40% overall and their defense has been good enough allowing only 38% conversions at home. Even in the red zone LSU only scoring 50% TD's, 40% conference play and 25% on the road, while Arkansas is at 57% at home and their defense is ironically the same allowing 70% TD's in conference play while LSU is too.

Bottom line this is very much like the situation in 2008 when Arkansas was +7 at home and 4-7 with a season wrapped up they went on to win 31-30 and I can see a crazy game like that again.

TCU +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Texas normally would play Texas A&M, but with the Aggies off to the SEC that ended one of the oldest rivalries and here comes TCU who used to play Texas in the SWC and actually have 82 total match ups with Texas. It's a great transition for Thanksgiving and will be an interesting match up for Texas who for the first time in a long time won't have the best defense on the field on Thanksgiving.

Both teams are off a bye week and I think that's even more important for a TCU team that needed the rest as they are very young. You have to wonder how much Texas was looking ahead to Kansas State who was likely to be undefeated but were shocked by Baylor. When the game starts Texas offense which has clicked at time this year will have several things they have not seen this year. TCU's defense has always been good and they are known for holding Kansas State to a season low 260 yards. Texas has dominated and gotten by on offense by facing bad defenses. TCU is ranked 16th overall and more importantly 7th vs. the run. This is by far the best run defense Texas will face all year. Over their last 5 games they have faced run defense ranked 95, 90, 89, 71, and 61 and even the game before that vs. West Virginia ranked 30th is a bit of a misconception since everyone throws on West Virginia.

On the flip side TCU has had a tough schedule vs. run defense and Texas is ranked 100th in run defense, and that's good news for TCU because in their last game they could not protect their young talented QB. At least in this game they will be able to rely on the run. TCU is 3-1 on the road in the Big 12 this season because it's where they run the ball far more at a rate of 55%. If they follow that same script they should be well in this game especially since Texas could have issues on third down with TCU who is ranked 5th overall allowing just 28% third downs. That's important to note because of how over rated Texas offense is in this situation. Texas who has converted 52% of third downs has hardly faced any real defenses that can stop it and that's likely because of they have faced poor run defenses. Overall they have faced an average 86th third down defense. TCU is also 5th overall in takeaways this season and while Texas has been pretty good at holding onto the ball they have not been tested like this. I expect a close game and I would not be shocked if TCU pulled off the upset. Gary Patterson is a good coach and the extra rest was surely a benefit to his young team.

3.3* POD

Cowboys -3 5.5* NFL POD
This game could be ugly as two of the most penalized teams will meet in Dallas on Turkey day. I'm loving the Cowboys in this spot as they are 13-0 in November at home under Tony Romo and Romo gets a favorable match up. I think we get a lot of value based on how the Cowboys struggled last week, but that was against Cleveland's passing defense. The Browns despite being ranked in the bottom of the league were the leagues best last year and have started to click in defending the pass allowing just 183 over their last 3. That was problamtic for the Cowboys because they have been unable to run the ball. I was not shocked to see their offense sputter, but it's no indication of how they have been playing because now they face a Redskins team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

Redskins have been good in key running situations, but still have allowed 4.6 ypc on the road, but even more of a key is their inability to stop the pass. They're ranked 29th in yards allow, and 28th in sack % which means they can't afford to blitz and won't get to Romo like the Browns did. Redskins defense has allowed 32, 31, 22, 27 and 27 in road games this year and Dallas is fully capable in the passing game that just seems to get better and better by the week to put up those type of numbers too and if they do this game will be over because the Redskins rely more on the run and are not built to come back.

RG III has been great and all, but their huge win last week is no indication of how good or bad they are. The Eagles have quit on their coach and the Redskins came off a bye. Now they travel on short rest to face the Cowboys at home on Turkey day. Dallas too has been one of the best run defenses at home good for 2nd allowing just 3.4 ypc. Ever since Jay Ratliff has come back they have been hard to run on. This will set up some longer third downs and that is where the Redskins seem to struggle big time as they are 30th only converting 30% of them while the Cowboys are 11th. Dallas defense on third down is also great ranking 5th allowing just 33% at home while the Redskins are ranked 29th. This translates over to the red zone where the Redskins are 20th and the Cowboys are 11th, but the Cowboys are only allowing 36% conversions in the red zone at home.

Bottom line people love to bet the hot hand and whoever they are talking about in the media and that has led to bets coming in on RG III, but I think Romo and the Cowboys can take off here if they get a win here. It's a crucial game and the Cowboys just seem to have the matchups especially with S Brandon Meriweather lost for the season on the Redskins side. This Cowboys team could easily be 8-2 right now, but a few bad breaks and coaching decisions. Last week they finally pulled off a game they would have lost in the past and I think that confidence will carry them to an easy victory on Thanksgiving as their defense takes control.

3** NCAAB POD

Celtics +1.5 3.3* NBA POD
Boston played terribly in their last game, but they usually play their best games after a loss especially if it is in embarassing fashion. They'll play host to the Spurs who are thin on their front line after losing Stephen Jackson on Monday night. This team already was having issues rebounding the ball and they went -10 in rebound margin when Jackson left. The Celtics should have an advantage being off for a couple of days as this is a huge game for them. The Spurs have not played that great and even lost 2 of 3 at home. The Dog in this meeting has been 10-0-1 in their last 11 meetings.

3.3* POD; UC DAVIS +175 1* BONUS

Akron +19 4.4* NCAAF POD / Akron +900 0.5* play
Akron has 4 extra days to prepare for this game and despite being 1-10 and 0-7 in the MAC this will be like a championship to them. HC Terry Bowden has made great strides this year at Akron although the record does not indicate that. They have 4 games decided by 8 points or less and have not lost by more than 19 points on the road while Toledo has not beaten a team at home by more than 19. As good as Toledo

49ers -3.5 4.4* NFL POD
Both teams will be starting their back up QB's here and even though the Bears Jason Campbell has more experience I"m giving the 49ers who are just far less reliant on their QB a huge edge. The 49ers have never asked Alex Smith to win games and now that he's out they actually get a new wrinkle with Colin Kaepernick in there who can be explosive in the running game.

That's the key right there the running game and the 49ers are far more dominant at running the ball than the Bears. 49ers are ranked 1st overall and average over 6 yards per carry at home. The Bears are ranked 29th on the road in ypc allowed and they have faced rushing offenses on the road ranked 25th, 32nd, 31st, and 5th. I'm very sketpikal on their gap integrity and ability to stop this rushing attack tonight. They are ranked 18th overall and are allowing 4.8 ypc on the road. The Bears have relied too much on forcing turnovers and when they face teams that do not give the ball away they lose. 49ers are 5th in the league with fewest turnovers. The Bears have played two other teams like that and lost both to the Texans (at home), and Packers (on the road).

49ers also can stop the run much better than the Bears can ranked 3rd in the league and their defense has been tested by several top 10 teams especially at home already. San Fran has actually improved their red zone TD% this year ranked 7th, while Chicago has done a poor job ranked 44th and scoring just 36% TD's on the road. The ability of Campbell will only reduce that especially given how great the 49ers run defense has been.

Chiefs +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
I really love the Chiefs here and I think we are getting a ton of value here in a home dog. The Bengals did beat the Giants last week who have been playing poorly of late, but beating the defending Super Bowl Champions will get you tons of credit and the public is pouring in on the Bengals this week as road dogs. How could you back the Bengals on the road right now? Their defense has been terrible against the pass and the run. This will be the first game for the Chiefs since facing the Saints that they should be able to find balance as the Bengals are 31st in completion % defense and 27th in yards per carry defense and even worse when they are on the road.

If you take away the records and you purely look at the stats the Chiefs could easily be the better team. They have plenty of weapons, the better defense and they are at home. They have Brandon Flowers at CB who is playing at a high level and should be able to take AJ Green out of the game or at least slow him down to give his team a chance to win. The Bengals lack balance on offense too and it's a clear reason why they are 29th converting third downs with just 31% rate and 28% on the road. The Chiefs are 12th, and their 3rd down defense is ranked 9th and allow just 28% at home.

Chiefs main issues this year have been turnovers and scoring TD's as they are last in RZ TD%, but facing the Bengals should help as they are 26th in red zone defense while the Chiefs are 12th and allowing just 26% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games. I expect the Chiefs to hold the Bengals to field goals on possessions in the red zone. You can definitely see the Bengals struggling in this spot.

Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5* pod
Ohio State has a major advantage in this game coming off a bye week which allowed them to get healthy particularly at LB where they had some depth issues and that will go along way as they have to stop Wisconsin rushing offense. Ohio State is fully capable of doing that particularly because they feature a one dimensional offense as they are ranked 112th in passing offense and now have an unkown in there in Curt Phillips who has spent most of his career injured with 3 different knee surgeries. Wisconsin has played against 3 top 25 run defenses this year and the results have not been good putting up 7, 16, and 13 points losing 2 of them and should have lost the third to Utah State who missed several field goals. Bottom line they have gone 0-3 ATS against top 25 run defense and Ohio State is ranked 16th and they are allowing just 2.64 ypc on the road. Bottom line Ohio State does what Wisconsin does, but they do it better.

Wisconsin's defense will have major issues stopping Ohio State's Braxton Miller. Yes they are the best run defense in the Big Ten, but the only other time they faced a capable running game with multiple threats including a QB was against Nebraska a game they lost and gave up 259 yards. Wisconsin also won't be with a healthy Chris Borland who is their best player on defense at LB. He hurt his hamstring and those injuries tend to linger. Ohio State also has an emotional advantage here off a bye and Wisconsin already has the Legends division wrapped up after last week's blow out of Indiana as Penn State and Ohio State are ineligible. Ohio State will be playing this game like their default bowl game.

Ohio State has major advantages in red zone and on third downs that will allow them to win this game on the road. First of all they are allowing just 33% conversions on the year and are converting 45% good for 30th and 48% in road games while Wisconsin is ranked 108th converting 31% of their third downs, that's what an offense that has no balance will get you. In the red zone Braxton Miller is a difference maker as Ohio State has not only gotten there 9 more times, but they have scored 80% TD's and 77% in conference play to Wisconsin's 63% and 68% percentages. Ohio State's defense too has produced better numbers holding opponents to 48% TD's in the red zone while Wisconsin is ranked 68%. There is also no love lost between these two coaches and you better bet Urban Meyer will flex his coaching muscles with a well prepared game plan off the bye.

Magic +5 3.3* POD
I get that the Pistons have played well of late beating Sixers in easy fashion on the road and nearly upsetting the Thunder at home, but they are still 1-8 for a reason and the Magic finally are in a game where they could technically be favored. The Magic played right with the Knicks a few days ago in our last POD and lost as the Knicks took over in the second half. Tonight they face a team that rebounds worse than they do, has a worse FG% from the field and plays just about the same defense. Orlando should have the advantage on the boards, but overall these are two even teams and the game should stay close the entire way.

Ohio +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD, Ohio +225 1* bonus
Everyone is down on Ohio it seems, but they were in a tough scheduling spot over the last few weeks as they played 3 games in a span of 12 days and lost two of them. That was not an easy thing to do and now they are on normal rest playing in a game where they can still get to the MAC title game if Bowling Green loses two games and they win out. It starts tonight and I feel this line is really off as Frank Solich is a very good game. The line is a clear indication based on Ball State

Lehigh +12 3.3* NCAAB POD
This team already went up against a big and athletic Baylor team on the road and now they

Magic +7.5 3.3* NBA POD
Cavs +6 1.1* bonus
Knicks are high flying leading the league in scoring defense and offense. I

Steelers/Chiefs Over 40 4.4* NFL POD; 2.2* bonus Chiefs +18.5/ Over 34
I believe this game goes over, the Steelers defense though ranked #1 in the league is not as good as advertised. They are 22nd in TD% in the red zone and 26th in third down defense. The Chiefs will be able to score and put up yards by converting on third downs where they are ranked 5th. The Chiefs just have to avoid the turnovers and they will be in this game. I know that is a big If the way they have played this year, but the Steelers are not the defense they were in the past in forcing turnovers. They are 23rd in sack % and they are also 30th getting just 1 turnover per game. The Chiefs are dead last in turnovers, but now they face a team they can actually avoid turnovers and I think they'll get the running game going early with Jamal Charles. Defensively I think the Chiefs are in trouble particularly against the run.

The Steelers are as healthy as they have ever been with all of their running backs looking to be ready for this game. Each player will be fighting for yards because the guy that produces is going to get the playing time. The Chiefs are also allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the road and the Steelers should set up convertible third downs where they are the best in the league. I do think the Steelers after getting a big victory last week could have a bit of a let down and a look ahead as they get the Ravens next week, but I think the defense is the team that will falter as the offense has averaged 28pts per game the week before facing the Ravens in the last 7 seasons under Big Ben.

3.3* NBA POD

Titans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD
Miami has not been a good home team for a while now going just 22-51-1 ATS in their last 74 and now they are favorites by nearly a TD their biggest number in almost three years? I don't think the Titans are nearly as bad as they showed last week against the Bears which was a complete disaster and their owner Bud Adams lashed out at his team all week and I think the Titans players and coaching staff will be playing with some desperation on Sunday. Dolphins are also coming off a tough loss, but they have a short week and a division opponent up next Thursday that they'll be looking ahead to.

If you take out last weeks result the Titans are a very similar team to the Dolphins. The Titans have the better offense while the Dolphins have the better defense, but the Dolphins pass defense has just been awful. With Jake Locker coming back and providing a spark to the team I think it will be a big day for the Titans offense who have talented receivers that can beat the Dolphins with regularity on Sunday. On the flip side there is this idea that Miami can run the ball well they are ranked 28th in ypc with just 3.7 ypc on the season and 3.2 in their last three while the Titans should find more balance with Chris Johnson who is starting to pick things up of late.

Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Louisville has not played well on the road vs. bad teams and now they go up against a Syracuse team that has been very balanced on offense and defense across all major categories. Syracuse has tendency to win against ranked teams in the Carrier Dome and Louisville has just been asking for it the last few weeks.

Syracuse will be playing on senior day and led by senior QB Ryan Nassib who is capable of beating Louisville's defense that has not faced anyone really. Syracuse has had tough games here already facing USC, Northwestern both are in the top 25 in the nation and the Orangemen will look to stay alive for a bowl game.

Louisville's run defense just allowed 255 rush yards and Syracuse who has faced some of the better run defense has been able to keep a balanced attack at home with Jerome Smith and Gulley averaging 4.37 ypc despite facing two top 30 run defenses. Louisville is 50th against the run and could have issues facing a physical running back. On the flip side Syracuse is capable of stopping Louisville's 71st ranked rushing attack. They held Northwestern to 3.10 ypc which was their lowest all season by over a yard. They held both Pittsburgh and Uconn to under 1 ypc.

At the end of the day Louisville is getting too much credit they have faced poor competition especially on the road and their defense is not nearly as impressive in key categories as Syracuse especially on third down as Syracuse is 32% to Lousiville's 41.6% on the road as Syracuse is among the nations leaders in tackles for loss with 67, while Louisville has just 42. Look for Syracuse offense that has struggled at times in the red zone to get it done on Saturday as Louisville's defense has allowed an 80% TD percentage on the road while Louisville's red zone offense has been excellent it's faced an average rz defense allowing 70% touch downs and Syracuse is only allowing 50% at home.

At the end of the day going into the Carrier Dome is no easy task especially for a Louisville team that starts mostly under classmen led by Terry Bridgewater who is not close to being the same on the road completing just 59% of his passes. On Saturday for the first time this year he won't' be the best QB on the field as Nassib has been great completing 65% of his throws for 9 TD and just 2 interceptions and he goes up against a Louisville pass defense that has allowed 68% completion percentage in road games this year.

4.4* NBA POD

Jaguars +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
I love the Jaguars in this spot with all the hype continuing to grow with Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Jaguars have played terribly and deserve to be home dogs the rest of the way, but I think they'll want to prove something here tonight and I think they will have some success doing so against the Colts defense that has not played well on the road. I know Andrew Luck is going to be a star in this league, but right now there is just too much hype. He has not played well on the road in three games where he's been sacked 9 times and has thrown just 2 TD's and 6 interceptions. He's also not completing 60% of his passes and not even close on the season which is a clear indicator that he just does not have the weapons around him to be an efficient QB that will be able to win on the road. This defense just is not any good and I see the Jaguars playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and finally coming away with their first win at home.

Bulls +3 3.3* NBA POD
Bulls have been solid to start the season while, the Thunder are off to an inconsistent start. Bulls led by Luol Deng and Joakim Noah and a defense that is among the leagues best allowing 88.8 per contest. Thunder shot 47.1% from the field last year, but are done on those numbers to start this year. Thunder really are still coming together and gelling with the new additions and the loss of James Harden who was traded to the Rockets. Thunder beat the Bulls without Rose before, but the were at home last year in the 14 point win and they were lucky to hold Deng, Noah, and Boozer to 21 points and a season low 33%. Look for the Bulls to seek revenge tonight against an inconsistent bunch still trying to find their way.

Last night

3.5* nba pod

Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD
Neither team is very exciting to back right now, but how can you back a favorite that is doing something that's historic right now in the Saints and their defense. The Saints have allowed 400+ yards in 7 straight games and they have played some pretty bad offenses (Chiefs). The Saints are last in the league in yards per play 6.7 ypp and will go up against an Eagles offense that has struggled this year, but has the ability to put up over 500 yards of offense with the players they will put on the field. They also have the potential and the play makers to give Drew Brees trouble.

The defense is the bigger key as the Eagles have not played nearly as bad as the media has portrayed. This defense is 3rd in third down conversions they are 3rd in red zone defense TD% allowed 37.5%, and 1st in pass completion % defense. Drew Brees and the Saints don't have the ingredients to beat the Eagles unless they force turnovers because I think this offense is going to finally click whether it's Michael Vick breaking the blitzes for dynamic plays or Lesean McCoy against the leagues worst run defense that's allowing over 5 ypc. Either way the Eagles offense is dangerous on turf and they need a win here. If they lose this game I see many changes coming. All the Eagles need is 238 yards against the Saints and the Saints will have allowed more yard through 8 games than any other defense in NFL history. The Saints defense is not forcing turnovers either so look for the Eagles to take what they give them as there will be a lot to take.

3.3* NBA POD

Raiders -1 5.5* NFL POD
We were on the Bucs to beat the Vikings at +210 last Thursday and now the public is in love with Josh Freeman again. However, this is a tough game and I see a bit of a hang over for a young team. For one this team is flying across the country to play this game against a Raiders team that is starting to click. Carson Palmer should be able to have a huge game against the Bucs secondary that has been decimated by injuries and trades. Their secondary was not good to begin with so this really puts them in a tough situation. The Bucs run defense won't help them in this game because the Raiders are very much used to being stopped when they try to run the ball and it has resulted in a lot of passes and good chemistry between Palmer and his receivers.

On the flip side don't sleep on Oakland's front 7 ability to stop the run as they are only allowing 2.1 ypc and are 10th overall when you combine home and away stats. TB showed some real weaknesses against the run allowing 6.7 ypc, so don't think that Oakland will completely abandon the run. Look for McFadden to build off his first 100 yard rushing day. I also like the Raiders ability to hold the Bucs up on third downs as they are holding opponents 33% conversions on third downs while the Bucs are only converting 31% of their third downs and Oakland and Carson Palmer have done a decent job at home and are only getting better converting 41% of their third downs and those are key stats in a game that is supposed to be very close.

3.3* NBA POD

LSU +9 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay so here it is, the game LSU circled in the off season and it seems like the folks who scheduled the game wanted them to have every advantage they could. LSU not only hosts Alabama on what everyone knew was going to be the a game that had national implications, but they gave LSU the week off before. Don't sleep on Les Miles he's beaten Nick Saban before and with extra preparation should be able to put up a good fight in this game as the 6 head to head battles between these two coaches have been remarkably close on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. I expect nothing less from this match up on Saturday night in Death Valley.

First of all no matter what anyone tells you Alabama has clearly had the weaker SEC schedule thus far having to play an over rated Miss State team at home is the highlight? Miss State beat a lot of weak non conference teams, and Alabama also played Tenn, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi. Nothing sexy about it that's for sure while LSU in its last three games alone played Texas A&M, the SEC's best offense, Florida, and South Carolina. LSU's pass defense is every bit as good as Alabama's pass defense and they are even better at getting to the QB, while LSU is also better at protecting the QB. Two keys in this game that nobody realizes. Alabama is 13th in getting to the QB 8.16% of drop backs, just 6.67 on the road while LSU is ranked 10th. Bama is also 108th in allowing sacks and A.J. McCarron is banged up because of it. LSU has not been great, but look at the sack defenses they have faced in A&M who is perennially a top 5 pass rush defense, and South Carolina both teams are ranked in the top 20. Bama faced Western Kentucky, but they are a team from the Sun Belt, none of the other opponents are ranked in the top 20 in sack %.

So we spoke about what happens up front and we give LSU the small advantage on both sides based on stats, but being home is an even greater advantage, but we can't help but look at the QB match up which obviously favors the Crimson Tide on paper, but... Zach Mettinberger was recruited for this type of game and this won't be the national title game. Mettinberger has a strong arm and he's completing 63% of his passes at home. I'm not saying he'll have a better game than McCarron, but I don't think there is a big enough advantage on Alabama's side here to warrant getting more than a TD on the road especially when..

Alabama's running game that they lean on so much has not faced a top 15 run defense or run offense while LSU has. In fact other than Michigan's dual threat 16th ranked run offense that's not comparable to the SEC, Alabama has not faced a top 50 rushing offense. LSU is ranked 27th but they average 5.6 ypc at home and feature 4 running backs averaging over 5.96 ypc, and Spencer Ware who is averaging 4.11. Their RB will be fresh all game long and should find some room for manageable third downs against Alabama's defense that is a lot different than last year's national title team that lost 5 starters. Alabama is 17th in rushing offense 5.2 ypc, but they'll face an LSU run defense that allows just 1.6 ypc at home and has been tested by good rushing offenses already this year.

The small things are special teams and other random stats that not many people look at. There is a lot of talk about which defense is better and I spoke about how LSU is just as good and playing at home should give them a huge advantage, but if you need a stat that tells you more LSU has 65 TFL this year and are averaging over 9 per conference game. That's 19 more than Alabama while they have also allowed 4 less TFL on offense than Alabama. That was the biggest difference in the national championship game last year as Alabama dominated the point of attack. With the extra week to prepare, + home field advantage, revenge, and all that's on the table for LSU I think there is a lot of value here and I would be shocked if the Tigers didn't cover this spread.