Red Sox -108 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Red Sox do not want to lose 3 of 4 to the Yankees, and I think they are good enough to bounce back as they are 40-16 in their last 56 following a loss. Felix Doubrant will make the start for the Red Sox and he's had more quality starts against the Yankees than his opponent. In 8 starts he posts a 4.20 ERA against the Yankees and has held them to a .712 OPS in 86 AB. He's also pitched better in April compared with Nova who has struggled so I trust him a bit more to bounce back. I also trust the Red Sox bullpen just a bit more than the Yankees at this point.

Ivan Nova has a 5.74 ERA over the last three years in April and right now he carries an ERA over 8 and a 2.25 WHIP into the game. Nava, Ortiz, and Pedroia are a combined 14-38 against Nova who struggles with his location early in the season. The Red Sox have a .849 OPS in 81 AB against him. Nova is also giving up a 23.5% line drive percentage and is walking more than 1 runner per 9 than he is striking out which is not a good mix. I also like that Doubrant and the Red Sox are 9-1 in his last 10 Sunday starts.

[b]SF Giants -135 5.5* MLB POD[/b]
I believe we are getting tremendous value here in the pitching match up, the bullpen advantage, and the offense. The Rockies value is sky high right now they lead the majors with a .990 OPS, but just like last year that number will shrink on the road especially against good pitching. To put it in perspective the Rockies had a .808 OPS at home last year ranked #3, but on the road they had a .672 OPS ranked 25th. The Rockies also are 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog and 16-35 in their last 51 when visiting the Giants. They'll face Matt Cain on Saturday...

Matt Cain had an off year last year and we get value because of that along with his rough start to this year. However, all indications look good from his raw stats that he's due for a bounce back year as his velocity looks sharp and his line drive % is down from 22.4 % last year. His issue on the road was the long ball and now he gets to come home to the Giants friendly pitcher park that ranked 28th in HR/9. Matt Cain's overall stats vs. the Rockies are again nothing special when you look at his overall career, but at home he has been solid posting a 2.36 ERA in 34.1 IP with a 1.11 WHIP over the last three years. IN 174 AB they have a combined .689 OPS. Even though the Rockies are off to a fast start hitting their pitcher won't be supported by a bullpen like the Giants who post a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 0.64 ERA at home.

The Rockies bullpen is far more rocky posting a 6.19 ERA on the road and a 4.93 overall. The Giants get to face another lefty in consecutive days in Brett Anderson. The Giants are tearing up LHP ranking 3rd right now in OPS and #1 in BB's. That's big because Brett Anderson as talented as he once was has major control issues and has not looked good this year with a loss in velocity as well. I believe the Giants will work themselves into better pitcher counts and they should get to Brett Anderson and continue their success vs. LHP this year.

Lakers +10 3.3* NBA POD
This is clearly a look ahead spot for the Warriors on the road against the Lakers who are 35 games out of first place with the Portland Blazers up next. The Warriors are only 2 games back of the 5th seed trailing the Portland Blazers. Here is the big question and why this is only a 1* confidence rankings. Do the Blazers want the Clippers or do they want Houston? That's what is on the line if they are going to leap frog the Blazers. Either way I expect the spread to be sizeable and the Lakers already won at home as +5 under dog against the Warriors earlier this seaosn. The Lakers will be on 2 days rest while the Warriors will be traveling on 0 days rest where they are 5-8 ATS on the year. I expect the Warriors to cruise throughout this game and save it for Portland.

Cardinals -138 4* MLB POD
This Cardinal team is a tough team to beat at home especially when you are bringing a RH starter to the table which the Cubs are tonight with Jeff Samardzija who over the last 3 years carries a 5.91 ERA at Busch Stadium. The Cardinal hitters have hit him hard in 103 AB they have a .330 average. The Cubs will also face a RH starter which they are 12-40 in their last 50 games parlay that with the Cardinals who are an impressive 45-14 at home over their last 52 games vs. a RH starter and you have a 76% angel here. Jeff Samardzija is also 8-20 in his last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. I like his upside but just not vs. one of the best teams in the NL.

Also Joe Kelly takes the mound for the Cardinals and he has a 3.12 ERA at Busch Stadium in his career and posts a 2.61 career ERA over 30+ innings vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .586 OPS in 74 AB and the Cardinals bullpen has picked it up posting a 1.98 ERA over their last 5 compared with the Cubs at 5.28.

[b]Phillies -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Brewers stock is high they continue to win games, 5 in a row to be exact, while the Phillies have lost 3 in a row. Add that in with Cliff Lee struggling in his season opener and we have a recipe for value. Cliff Lee is still a quality starter and getting him at home at this cheap of a price especially when the Brewers have not faired well against LHP this year scoring over 2 runs fewer than they do against RHP. Cliff Lee did have a rough start out in Texas against an AL team, but pitching back in the NL even against the hot hitting Brewers is much easier.

This is an extremely cheap price for a pitcher that has a 2.84 ERA over the last three years which includes a 2.65 ERA at night.
Estrada will make the start vs. the Brewers, but I'm not impressed in his 2 starts vs. the Phillies he has a 2.44 WHIP with a 9.00 ERA and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and it's expecting to be a windy day in Philadelphia today which will be an advantage the Phillies have over the Brewers. Plus the Phillies are 47-22 in their last 69 games following back to back games of allowing 9+ runs.

Cubs +109 4* MLB POD
I'm going to go ahead and go with an under dog for the 4th time this season for my POD's we are 2-1 on the year on POD dogs. I really believe the Cubs have the better starter on the hill in Jason Hammel who is notorious for fast starts with a 3.06 ERA in his last 16 April starts over the last 3 years he also has an ERA of 3.62 in his career against the Pirates and did well his last time out against the Pirates and has held their hitters to a .177 average and a .517 OPS lifetime over 79 total AB's.

I truly believe the Cubs are going to be one of the more improved teams this year and getting them as a home dog at this point with an advantage on the mound is a good thing. They are 2-5 but easily could be 5-2 with 3 of their losses coming by less than 2 runs. Wandy Rodriguez has not won since last May and he will struggle on the road as he always does (4.05 ERA last 3 years). He has a 4.70 ERA in 13 lifetime starts at Wrigley and I think he will struggle here tonight.

[b]Magic +5.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
We have taken the Magic at home as under dogs many times this season and the results have been very rewarding. I like that they come into this game having been off since Saturday while the Nets just won over the Heat last night on the road going 4-0 against the Heat this season. The Nets are not likely to really improve their playoff spot so this is a good spot for them to take a deep breath after building their confidence against the Miami Heat. The Magic are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home contests and the Nets are only 6-12 on 0 days rest.. I'm expecting the Magic to play motivated as they are 18-20 at home with a chance to finish over .500 at home still on the table.

Cardinals -138 4.5* MLB POD
The Cardinals have really dominated the Reds at home and have already taken 3 of 4 from them on the season overall, but are 38-17 in their last 55 home games vs. the Reds. Homer Bailey vs. Lance Lynn is already a repeat match up that the Cardinals won on the road and Bailey isn't likely to get his revenge when you look at the fact that he is 1-7 in his last 8 games at Busch. Over the last 3 years he posts a 5.47 ERA here and the Cardinals line up collectively have a .324 average and a .933 OPS in 179 AB. The Cardinals should get there runs here and when you factor in the Reds struggles offensively - .215 average 2.04 runs per 9 vs. RHP well I think this price is a fair price.

Lance Lynn will take the mound he did not look great against the Reds in his first start 5 IP 3 ER, but in his 2 home starts last year he pitched great allowing 2 ER over 13 innings with 15k's to just 3 BB's. Lynn over the last 3 years has a 2.97 ERA at home over nearly 200 IP so it's safe to say he prefers to pitch here combined with a 22-13 record at night with a 3.47 ERA overall. Lynn also has 2.25 ERA in his April starts and I think being back at home will server him well in this match up. Neither team is tearing the cover off the ball, but we have the advantage with the home team as the Cardinals are 39-14 in their last 53, but even more impressive is that they are 44-13 (77% angle) in their last 57 home games vs. a RH starter. If you recall in some of my earlier write ups this season the Cardinals struggled vs. LHP last year and they are again early this season, but against RHP they just flat out dominated and despite losing some offense key pieces I think they added an upgrade in Peralta and Ellis is also a nice piece when they have to face LHP.

Kentucky -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
I'll go with Kentucky I've been on their bandwagon this entire tournament and despite being a CT native I will continue to be on the Wildcats. I even had Kentucky playing Florida in my major bracket, but now that Florida is out I'll take Kentucky to defeat the Huskies. Listen the Huskies have been here many times before and don't lose in the finals, but it's about time they face a very good opponent with more talent. Kentucky's run to get to the finals has to be more impressive as they took down Kansas State, Wichita State, Louisville who beat CT 3x, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Uconn barely made it out of the first round, and they caught fire the last two rounds with good overall play, but I don't think they can play at that level for the third game in a row. Take Kentucky as they should win by 5+.

[b]Pirates -142 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Cardinals were 26th in OPS last year vs. LHP and they also got rid of David Freese I do expect them to be a bit better this year in that department with the addition of a few guys, but so far that has not been evident with their .125 average and .399 OPS in 32 AB this year.. It's a small sample, but overall the Cardinals have not hit .191 average and 2.50 runs per 9 compared with the Pirates .238 and 4.14 runs per 9. Not a major advantage but Francisco Liriano will take the mound today for the Pirates and he has a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts last year and over 3 regular season starts against the Cardinals he went 24 IP and had a 0.75 ERA. He carried that over into the post season with a quality start going 6 innings giving up 2 ER vs. the Cardinals. He will be the better pitcher on the mound on Saturday.

Joe Kelly likely won't hold onto his role as the #5 starter throughout the year, but he can be very good out of the bullpen. He did carry a 2.69 ERA last year, but a lot of it was lucky when you consider his raw stats 5.73 K/9 vs. 3.19 BB/9 and a 82.4 % left on base percentage. The Pirates hitters had a good success off him with a .299 average and .822 OPS, but struggled with runners on. If that happens again today at least we know as of now the Pirates have the better bullpen posting a 1.42 ERA over 19 IP this season after being #3 last year with a 2.89 ERA. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 30th currently with a 9.58 ERA and were not in the top 10 last year. Pittsburgh is 42-19 in their last 61 as a home favorite and the Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 12 visits.

Uconn +6.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Uconn continues to get very little credit despite beating Florida early in the year. For Uconn they really have that chip on their shoulders dating back to last year when they were unable to compete in post season play. This is a veteran group that have played together for a long time in a better conference previously. Uconn will have the best player on the court tonight I don't care about what anyone says Shabazz Napier has proved that he is the best 23.3 pts 6 reb, 4.5 assist and 2 steals per game in 4 tournament games. Scottie Wilbekin is the only Florida player to be averaging over 10.5 points and Uconn does have a very good defense to go with two other scoring options so It is hard for me to believe that Florida can win by 7 points. Wilbekin did not have a very good game the first time around with just 15 points 3 turnovers and 2 assists. It will be interesting to see if he can create open looks for other guys on his team... I get that Florida has revenge from an earlier season loss, but I do believe that is over rated plus Florida shot better than Uconn in that game 49% to 43%, they out rebounded them by 7 and they got to the FT line more. Uconn is the best FT shooting team in the nation and should be able to keep this within the 6.5 points if they don't win the game outright.

Astros +138 4* MLB POD
The Angels are off to their typical slow start despite having a talented team. They went 9-16 last April and are off to a nice 0-3 start, but we are still catching value fading them and this scenario warrants it yet again as the Angels throw an arm up there in Garret Richards who has plenty of mustard on his fastball, but has the inability to control games and is 2-8 in his last 10 road starts while he has a 4.70 ERA overall on the road. This is not a spot to back the Angels as favorites as Richards gave up 9 ER in just over 12 innings pitched in his two starts vs. the Astros. Both of those were at home where Richards is a better pitcher. The Astros will send 6 lefties out there to face Richards which shapes up well because Richards really really struggles vs. LHB.

For the Astros they will throw out Lucas Harrell hoping his control issues are better and he returns to his 2012 form rather than 2013. Even though he struggled in 2013 he had some quality starts at home and has a 3.82 ERA over the last 3 years at home. He struggled in 2013, but despite all of that he posted a 1.53 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Angels. He did not always go deep into games, but he can hand it off to a bullpen that's pitching well after facing the Yankees.. Much better than the Angels who are last in the league with a 10.80 ERA out of their bullpen.

Raptors +1.5 3.3* NBA POD
I'll gladly take the home team here the Raptors want to win just as bad even though the Pacers have lost 5 of 7 and are now tied with the Heat at the top of the division. It just does not make sense why the public would push Indiana right now as they are only 19-18 on the road and they can not win big games on their own court meanwhile the Raptors have been playing great at home. I see the Raptors hungry to split the season series and I think they will do it with or without Lowry. Raptors are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.

[b]Mavericks +4 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I think the Mavericks have caught the Clippers at the right time. The Mavericks are off a tough OT loss on Tuesday but this team is resiliant and have played very well on the road. They are 38-13 ATS in their last 51 following a SU loss and they get to face a Clippers team that is playing their 6th game in 9 days and they are following a very long road trip that lasted over a week. The Clippers are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games following a road trip of 7+ days.

SMU -160 4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Larry Brown is back to MSG again to coach SMU and he's got his team playing like they were snubbed from the NCAA tournament. I think they have had the harder road and more impressive wins along the way than Minnesota and SMU ranks 21 spots ahead of Minnesota in kenpom's adjusted rankings. I believe SMU has the better defense, the better rebounding, and the better offense here and I think they will win this game. They also have the point guard to break Minnesota's pressure defense and their offense has good balanced with 9 guys in rotation.

Twins +138 4* MLB POD
I'll go with the Twins to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon. Phil Hughes will take the mound for the first time for the Twins and I think he will have a solid season now that he's not in a pitcher happy park. Hughes has pitched well at US Cellular Field 1.38 ERA and he's allowed a .130 average and a .326 OPS to the White Sox hitters in 69 at bats.

Jose Quintana had a solid year last year with an ERA below 4 and that's why we get such a high line here. Quintana had a 3.62 ERA in his career at US Cellular field, but in 4 starts here vs. the Twins he's got an ERA close to 9 as he's allowed 17 ER in 18.2 IP. The Twins collectively have a 1.027 OPS against Quintana who performs better during night games where he has an ERA nearly a run better than day games. I expect the Twins to be in this game with the lead.

Yankees -155 4* MLB POD
The Yankees are my top play today, I did not expect them to win yesterday with CC on the mound who is clearly not the Yankees ace any longer. Kuroda meanwhile has a 2.99 ERA in April over the last 3 years combined and over that period of time he's got a 0 ERA vs. the Astros in 3 starts. The Yankees will face an inexperienced Cosart with their line up that is built on a veteran group with plenty of offense. I'm expecting a big win from the Yankees who are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. the Astros.

Knicks -2 4.4* NBA POD
The Knicks are a small favorite tonight and they have a big revenge spot here against the Nets after they lost by double digits previously. I like the Knicks chances here tonight to win and cover the spread as they are fighting for the playoffs with each game and each game counts. The key here is the Knicks were blown out by the Nets at home by 20+ points by the Nets which does not happen very often but the Knicks are 27-9 ATS when revenging a home blowout loss.

[b]Florida State -1 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
These are two evenly matched teams on paper that met earlier in December in Minnesota who were 3.5 point favorites at home and won the game by 10. Now they meet in the NIT Tournament in New York on a neutral court where MInnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games while Florida State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on neutral court. I'm going with Florida State who is the more physical stronger team, the team that is more likely to get more shots in this game. In the first match up it was the turnovers in a hostile environment for FSU along with sending Minnesota to the line 30+ times and they also allowed Minnesota to shoot over 40% from three.

Minnesota has a solid offense, but their defense is very sketchy ranked 96th in adjusted rankings. I just don't see how they will be able to play enough defense to overcome everything Florida State will throw at them with revenge on their minds. This won't be a hostile environment for Florida State like it was in December.

Rangers -136 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Texas lost 14-10 on opening day, but I see them rebounding here. The Phillies put 6 lefties in the line up yesterday including a switch hitter and now they have to face a lefty. I expect some tweaks to the line up because of that, but this is a team that was 22nd in OPS vs. LHP last year and 26th in average. Their line up is basically the same and I don't see anything changing as they will struggle against LH starters. Martin Perez held his own last year with a 3.36 ERA at home which is hard to do in Texas.

AJ Burnett is coming off a great year last year, but opening up on the road and in the AL are not his specialties. Burnett has been a solid pitcher when he's in his own ball park in the NL, but here he has to go on the road where he carries a 4.74 ERA over the last 3 years and face a Rangers team that has had some success against him. Over his last 6 starts in Texas dating back to 2008 he has allowed 18 ER in 34 innings. Both Prince Fielder and Beltre have good numbers against him and I don't think he'll get the run support that Cliff Lee got here on Monday.

[b]Pacers +4.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Pacers should not be under dogs to anyone at home I don't care about how bad of a role they are on.. I think this is the perfect opportunity for them to get their mojo back with a big win at home. Although they have lost 4 of 5 this team did beat the Heat at home in between the two road losses. They are 33-4 at home while the Spurs come in riding a 17 game win streak that has this line inflated.

Baltimore Orioles +108 4* MLB POD
We are getting a ton of value here on the Orioles hosting the Red Sox. On paper it appears the Red Sox hold a big advantage on the mound, but Chris Tillman has a 2.21 ERA over his last 10 starts vs. the Red Sox and has even held David Ortiz to 1-16 in his career. Combined the Red Sox carry a .181 average and a .509 OPS in 138 AB vs. Tillman. The Orioles have one of the leagues deepest bullpens so I expect whenever Tillman gets into trouble with the lead that the bullpen can come in and dominate.

Lester on the other hand has not pitched well vs. the Orioles he has a 4.02 ERA in his last 9 starts over the last 3 years, but in 3 starts at Camden Yards last year he had a 4.76 ERA. The Orioles won't make things easier for Lester adding Nelson Cruz to the mix who is 10-22 against Lester parlayed with Adam Jones and matt Weiters success and I think the Orioles should be able to get to Lester early. All 3 are relatively fast starters with .800+ OPS in their last 3 Aprils combined.

[b]Magic +5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
A nice spot for the Magic who have won back to back games against playoff teams. Orlando is not giving up and have been playing games hard especially at home where they have 80% of their wins. A win here and they pull even at 18-18 at home. They'll want to be the Raptors who they are 0-2 against this year and the Raptors are in a classic sandwhich game here. They just clinched a playoff spot, and they are looking ahead to a tough road match up with the Heat tomorrow night and then they have to host the Rockets a tough back to back match up that they'll be looking ahead to as the Magic have been winning with effort lately going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Kentucky -135 5* NCAAB POD[/b]
I keep fading Michigan and I keep getting burned, but I can't help it on this match up because Michigan relies so much on the perimeter game. The match ups vs. Texas and Tennessee were in their favor playing Tennessee 180th in perimeter defense and Texas 235th. I thought both of those teams could over come that disadvantage with the big advantage they have in the front court and rebounding. I was right to an extend, but three point shooting of Michigan was too much in both games, but in this match up they are playing arguably the most talented team in the nation that has matured throughout this tournament winning games down the stretch that they were not supposed to. They did it against Wichita State and they did it against Louisville, home Michigan would have been underdogs against. Kentucky is 52nd in defending the three and did an excellent job against Louisville. The trio of 6'6 guards that Kentucky have will be enough to disrupt the flow that Michigan has right now. Michigan is 234th in 2 point defense and have the worst defense left in the tournament. You take a look at all the other teams and they are all defensive oriented so I expect Michigan to be out after today and for Kentucky to keep their momentum.

Arizona -3 4.4* POD[/b]
Wisconsin has been pretty impressive offensively this post season run, but now they face the #1 defense in the nation and the #7 rebounding team in the nation. Arizona is first in adjusted defense and they have faced 28th toughest offensive opponent. Wisconsin's other 3 opponents this post season were American, Oregon and Baylor none of which play defense as they are all outside the top 50. Wisconsin is a team that lives and dies by the the three point and I think Arizona should be able to defend it. Wisconsin does have some great W's on their resume against top tier defensive teams but they also have a loss to Nebraska who is ranked 28th in adjusted defense. Arizona has yet to play their best game and the only reason their last game was so close with San Diego State was because they got in foul trouble. Arizona can't have that happen tonight because they simply are not a deep team. San Diego State get to the FT line a ton with their agressive nature and that's just not Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 132nd in FTA per game while Arizona is nearly 4 below the nation average in sending their opponents to the FT line so I expect nobody will get into foul trouble here to change the game. Wisconsin had a lot of trouble with Oregon in the 2nd round and I expect that to continue here against Arizona because this is not the typical defensive Wisconsin team. Arizona is so athletic and should also have a huge advantage on the boards being 7th in the country in rebounding % compared with Wisconsin who is 111th. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big Ten and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non conference games. Arizona wins this one.

Hawks +5.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Wizards won last night by double digits over the Pacers so automatically you have to assume an inflated line when you think about how bad the Hawks have been also losing by double digits last night. The Wizards also have the #7 seed Bobcats up next on the road and I don't think they are taking the Hawks seriously since they are 3-0 ATS against them this year. The Hawks though are still 2 games up on the Knicks and have to win these games down the stretch. The Wizards have not been a dominant home team of late and seem to play down to their competition going 3-10-1 ATS int heir last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Tennessee +140 5* NCAAB POD
The SEC is 8-0 in the tourney thus far I believe and I believe they keep winning here tonight. Tennessee is a #11 seed and they clearly don't deserve that seeding but they are running with it... It's an eye opener that they opened up as a 1 point under dog against a #2 seed. Vegas knows best... I'll take the little value the public gives me when they pushed this line up and I'll just take the Vols on the ML. Tennessee is higher ranked in kenpom's rankings and they are far more balanced on both ends. The way to beat Tennessee is to get their big guys in foul trouble. When Jeronne Mayman and Jarnell Stokes are out of the game that is when Tennessee has major issues, but that won't happen here as Michigan is 307th in getting to the FT line.

I think Tennessee can defend the three and turn this into a half court game which gives them a huge advantage because Michigan is 225th in 2 point defense while Tennessee is 40th. Michigan lives and dies by the three and Tennessee will do all they can to defend it with the extra time to prepare I believe they'll have a good game plan. They also dominate in rebounding ranking 3rd in the nation in rebounding % while Michigan is 150th. I just think the nice story of Michigan finally ends here.

[b]Stanford -160 5.5* NCAAB POD[/b]
Dayton will finally go down after two big victories over a couple of over rated teams in Ohio State and Syracuse who both struggle and lack any kind of balance or consistency on offense. Dayton was able to pull off two big wins by a total of 3 points combined and that won't happen here as they'll face a Stanford team that has a ton of expereince and they are very well coached. I expect them to be ready after the extra time off here. Stanford should have a big edge on the boards and talent and there is enough value for me to take the ML in this one.

Looking into it further Stanford out of the PAC 12 played a much more challenging schedule and their defense is legit and their offense is better than both Ohio State and Syracuses. Dayton won't be able to hold them in the 50's which is what they need to do in order to win this game. Stanford averages 73 points when they are off for 3 or more days which is their best offensive position and I think that will pay dividends against a Dayton team. Stanford just got done holding Kansas to 57 points and they were ranked 13th offensively and they held New Mexico to 53 points and they were ranked 43rd. Now they face Dayton who is ranked 38th and I expect another solid defensive effort that will allow them to capture the first Elite 8 birth.

[b]Wisconsin -3.5 2.2* play[/b]
I really like Wisconsin in this game as Baylor just does not defend the 3 ball well and are ranked 79th in adjusted defense. Wisconsin is the more balanced team that plays offense and defense can shoot inside and out and does not turn the ball over. Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big 12 and this is Bo Ryan's best offensive team in years on a team that is typically made up of defense. Bo Ryan will have his team ready after 3+ days of rest where they are playing their best defense. It's evident that coaching advantage is on the side of Wisconsin as Baylor plays their worst defense when they are on more than 3 days of rest. Adjustments that Bo Ryan will make on the overall game plan will tilt this game in Wisconsin's favor and 3.5 is enough value to wager.

Kentucky +5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Wichita State has been a popular pick for the final four because they return all of their players that got them to the final four last year. Wichita had a little lucking having to play La Salle in the Sweet 16 last year, but now their will be no easy games in their route to the Final Four. Kentucky is young full of freshmen and sophomores, but John Calipari knows how to coach young players he won a championship with a bunch of freshmen just a few years ago. Wichita had the 135th toughest schedule in the land and they didn't play a top 25 team the entire year. Kentucky meanwhile had the 9th toughest schedule and could be 34-1 on the year they only lost 1 of their 10 games by more than 5 points and seem to play their best at the end of the season including an SEC Championship where they almost beat Florida.

The difference will be Kentucky's front court led by Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein as they are all key contributors on both side of the ball. This is an agressive team that tends to get a lot of second opportunities and a lot of FT opportunities and I think it's going to be a real challenge for Wichita here even as a #1 seed. Kentucky was supposed to be a #1 seed themselves when the season started and the public has pushed this spread to 5 points which is just too juicy to pass up when you consider Kentucky only lost by more than 5 points once and it was to top seeded Florida during the regular season

Michigan State -7 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Michigan State has been healthy for the last 7 games and now they have some chemistry going as they have Gary Harris, Adreian Payne, Keith Appling, and Branden Dawson all playing healthy and at high levels. Michigan State will face Harvard who got through an over rated Cinci team on Thursday and I think they are ready to get blown out now. Michigan State's one weakness is their 3 point defense at times, but Harvard despite the stereotype will only attempt 14-15 threes per game so expect Michigan State's defense down low to pay dividends. Harvard had a nice run, but they have not beaten any teams all year long and I think Michigan State is primed to go on a nice run here under a Hall of Fame coach that may not stop until they face Florida or Kansas.

Stephen F. Austin 4.4* NCAAB POD
I like SFA to win this game today against VCU which prides itself on success in the under dog role in the tournament, but now they are heavily favored and I don't think this team can sneak up on anyone any more. Austin also features a trio of guards who do not get flustered. In fact they turn the ball over less than VCU does and they are 5th in turnover margin at +5.2. They haven't lost since November and they feature a balanced offense/defense.

VCU is below average offensively if they are not forcing turnovers and winning in transition. VCU will have issues accomplishing that here today and that's why I think Stephen F. Austin will be moving on, because VCU just does not have the offense or the depth now that their 6th man Melvin Johnson has been ruled out

Tex/Asu U143 4.4* T.O.Y.
This is my total of the year as you have two teams from high flying conferences, but both are defensive oriented teams ranking in the top 40 in adjusted defensive rankings. The spread is close in this one so each team feels like they have a chance to win and will play the game down to the last possession. with that said I see too much value on the under here as this game will be played in the 60's in my opinion. Arizona State is 36-17-1 on the under in their last 54 vs. a team with a win % over .600 and TExas is under 9-2 int heir last 11 on neutral court. Public perception is these teams come from high scoring conferences out of the PAC12 and the Big12 thus an inflated total that I will take advantage of.

Dayton +6.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Dayton has been waiting for this match up for years. Getting to face Ohio State is something special for Dayton because of how close these teams are from each other. I also think it comes at the right time, because Ohio State is not a dominant team that's going to blow a team off the court. They lack any type of star player that can dominate on both ends and Dayton has just enough that could allow them to win this game. Aaron Craft has been a very nice player, but in the tournament I just don't see him taking over. Ohio State is ranked 123rd offensive in the adjusted rankings and they have placed and adjusted 50th ranked defense compared to Dayton ranked 32nd offensively facing 81st adjusted ranked defense.

Dayton has a balanced offense that relies on many players to score so it will be harder for Ohio State to completely shut this team out. Also Dayton tends to lean on their two point offense more than the three and Ohio State is less dominant defending the paint ranking 69th in the nation in 2 point defense. It's also worth noting that Ohio State for a solid defensive team is ranked 197th in rebounding. Ohio State is just not that good of a team and I think the motivation is right on Dayton's side to come up with a big upset that they will be talking about at Dayton for years to come.

Tennessee +2 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Tennessee is ranked 11th in adjusted stats compared to Iowa who is ranked 28th. These are two similar teams very much similar to the match up we had last night with NC State and Xavier and once again tonight I"m going with the team with the better star player, and the team that is the under dog that finished the season on a better roll.

Tennesee's Jordan McRae will be the difference he'll be the best player in this game and he can hit form three and create his own shot which is a nice combination with Tennessee's dominating defense which is ranked 15th in adjusted rankings compared to Iowa who are ranked 129th.

Tennessee allowed just 32.9% over their final 5 games while shooting 47% compared with Iowa who tanked 6 of their last 7 games and allowed 51.1% to opponents over their last 5 games. Tennessee gave Florida all they wanted in the SEC tournament and led by 7 at the half while Iowa was busy losing to Northwestern. Tennessee is one of the more under rated teams this is a team that dominated Virginia 87-52 at home earlier this year and Virginia is a #1 seed.

Pelicans -1 3.3* NBA POD

NC State +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Xavier may be closer to Dayton, OH but they should be at a crowd disadvantage considering how many games they would play against rival Dayton before moving to the new Big East this year. Xavier has not played well on the road or neutral court going 5-10 on the year and this is not the same Xavier team that has had so much success in past NCAA tournaments. All of Xavier

Celtics +12 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Mavericks just beat the Thunder 109-86 and this is a classic over reaction to that game coming on Monday where the Mavericks who have an aging squad have to play on 0 days rest. The Thunder played without Russell Westbrook and Dallas has just been on a tear shooting the ball, but I'm thinking that simply can not continue especially with some tired legs tonight. The Celtics also played yesterday, but this team is much younger and has nothing to lose at this point and they are 7-0 ATS playing in the 2nd of back to back road games this season. I'm simply thinking there is too much value and Brad Stevens has the Celtics playing hard each time out.

Michigan State -2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Michigan State finally has their team healthy again and they get a gift on Sunday playing their in state rival in the Big Ten Championship game. They lost two times in the regular season to Michigan yet they are favored as the higher seed here on Sunday. I expect this to be a close game throughout with the Spartans pulling away late. This is a team playing with all their guys that started the season as the pre season #2 and has yet to play their best basketball. Meanwhile the Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and struggled to get by Ohio State and Illinois.

Magic +4.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Wizards get a game against the Magic who are 19-47 overall on the year so I doubt they will be taking them very seriously. Washington is in the #6 slot in the East playoff race. Just 3.5 games separate 3-6 in the East so you better bet they are looking at their game on Saturday with the Brooklyn Nets who are just a 1/2 game back.

I believe this is an excellent spot to fade the Wizards because the Magic have been solid at home going 15-17 and have defeated some quality teams like the Clippers, Pacers, Thunder, and Nets. The Magic are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Providence -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Providence won 3 more games in conference play as the two split the season series. Both Providence and Seton Hall won as significant under dogs on Thursday, but Seton Hall had the more unlikely win and what I consider to be the luckier win. Seton Hall defeated Villanova who I felt was vulnerable due to the fact they rely on the 3 so much. Well they went 4-19 from three and 15-26 from the FT line which is uncharacteristic while Seton Hall hit 8-19. Seton Hall is not a streaky offense that will all of a sudden get red hot so I expect them to digress back to the norm. After all we had them at -1.5 against Butler on Wednesday and they shot just 39.6% in a 1 point win. Providence on the other hand had more FT attempts and more rebounds in both match ups as they were +18 and +9 in FTA respectfully. Providence still wants in on the NCAA Tournament and a win would definitely put them there in my opinion so the pressure is on, but I think they'll deliver.

UCLA -2 3.3* NCAAB POD

Seton Hall -1.5 -106 4.5* NCAAB POD
How is Seton Hall favored for this match up when they lost to Butler twice during the season? Well I'll tell you why Butler went 4-14 in conference play and is clearly not the same team from years past. They have two scorers in Dunham and Woods and Seton Hall just saw these two at Butler a game they lost in their last game to end the season. Seton Hall should be able to put together a defensive strategy together and should win this game outright. Seton Hall has many more big conference wins and should get revenge here after losing to Butler twice this season. In the last game Butler shot 61% from 3 and doubled the amount of FTA while out rebounding forcing 4 turnovers and holding Seton Hall to 38.9%. I don't see anything close to that happening at MSG on Wednesday night. Seton Hall was quite resilient this year winning 9 of their 14 games that followed a loss and I look for a huge game from Gene Teague in the post. This is a team that beat Xavier twice and Georgetown twice and they are certainly capable of beating a bad Butler team once.

[b]Pacers pk 5.5* MAX NBA POD & GAME OF THE MONTH[/b]
Dallas just beat Portland as a small home favorite and now they have a much tougher game against an angry Pacers team that is reeling off 3 straight losses. The Pacers also have revenge on their mind as they lost to the Mavericks at home by 8pts earlier this season. The Pacers are 15-5-1 ATS int heir last 21 games following a SU loss and they were 12-1 SU following a SU loss until this 3 game losing streak which I think they come out of here today with a big win to improve to 13-3 on the season following a SU loss. This is a team that never lost 4 in a row all year last year and a team that's motivated by having now a slim edge on the Heat in the #1 seed by just 1.5 games.

Dallas on the other hand may have their focus on their next game which is traveling to Golden State who they trail by 2 games for the 6th seed. Dallas is the team that can afford to lose right now while Indiana is desperate which is usually a good thing for a defensive minded team like Indiana who is #1 in shooting defense and #1 in 2 point defense where Dallas takes nearly 75% of their shots. Dallas is 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in 2 pt defense this year. Indiana is also won of the better rebounding teams ranking 6th in rebounding % while Dallas ranks 27th in rebounding % the same ranking they have for shooting defense. Indiana has gone 24-7 combined against the worst 8 teams in shooting defense and rebounding % and I expect them to win big here today before going home to face a bad Boston team.

[b]Ohio State -3.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Ohio State lost in OT the last time these two met and will be motivated on Senior day to get some revenge. They have also had over 3 extra days to prepare for Michigan State who was able to win their last game out after losing 4 of their previous 5 games. IN the first match up the real difference was the Spartans ability to make 11 of their 19 three point attempts which is shocking because Ohio State is 2nd in the nation in 3 point defense % allowing just 27.7%. I expect them to dominate the perimeter on the defensive end here today knowing that was the difference in the game when you consider they were +10 rebounds and +10 FTA. Ohio State on the flip side went 4-18 form three, but what they have to do at home is get to the FT line.

Ohio State's best offense is getting to the FT line and knocking down their free shots which is what I think they'll do here on Sunday. Ohio State is 16-3 at home +16.8ppg and would be 16-3 ATS at -3.5. They have been dominant in their last 3 home victories winning by 18, 16, and 17 getting revenge on Minnesota in an 18 point win. Michigan State relies on their 3 point game far too much to win on the road against Ohio State's caliber of defense. In the first match up Ohio State was -4 in turnover margin which should also be flipped. Aaron Craft is looking to become the Big Ten leader in steals and should make that happen today. Michigan State is -4.4 TO/Game in their last 5 games while Ohio State is +3. Ohio State is also 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record above .600. The Spartans are 8-2 on the road and have had a relatively easy conference schedule on the road losing at Michigan and Wisconsin. The other 8 are teams not going to the NCAA Tournament with the exception of maybe Iowa at 20-11 who the Spartans beat by only 2 in OT.

[b]UCSB -2.5 5.5* NCAAB POD & BIG WEST GOY[/b]
UCSB is the much better team overall and have a lot to play for being just 1 game out of the Big West regular season title trailing UCI. Although UCI is likely to beat UC Davis earlier on Saturday UCSB will still play hard because they lost at home to Cal Poly as 8 point favorites earlier in the season. That game was simply a fluke loss and both of these teams have gone in opposite directions.

Santa Barbara and Cal Poly are big rivals so there will be plenty to play for and I don't see Cal Poly shooting 61% again from the three point land and Santa Barbara going 2-17. If anything those stats will be reversed on Saturday when you consider Cal Poly is -2% FG% overall at home and UCSB is +5.3% and +9.4% compared with their competitors from beyond the arch. Poly has also struggled over their last 5 games shooting just 36.5% overall and 30% from three. They were not a very good team all season long and are 2-10 ATS int heir last 12 games. UCSB was 3rd in the Big West in scoring and 2nd in defense and they'll lean on arguably the best player in the conference to get a big road win in Alan Williams who is averaging 21.5 ppg and 11.6rbg.

Heat +3 +100 3.5* NBA POD
I'll take the Heat as a road dog all day long at this point in the season. The Heat lost at the Rockets and they'll look to avoid losing a second game in a row. Their last game was a tough situation after the emotional win and Lebron's 61 points from the night before. Now they get a little extra rest and should be motivated to win this game. They have won the last 5 match ups during the regular season with the Spurs. I just think the Heat are clicking on all cylinders right now and their last game was just a poor shooting game as Wade, Chalmers, Battier, James and Both combined to go 0-12 from beyond the arch. They also were out hustled being out rebounded by 13 which has been an issue all season, but with Wade, Bosh and James all under 40 minutes in that game they will be fresh and Miami plays their best defense on 1 days rest so if they lose I believe it will be by a basket.

The Spurs also have not played top tier competition at home lately and are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record above .600 and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the Heat are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 following a SU loss.

Xavier +3 4.4** NCAAB POD
Xavier has been a dominant 16-1 at home this year and have been a solid team when facing revenge which they will be doing here on Thursday night after losing to Villanova by 20+ points. Xavier is 22-7 ATS (76% ATS Angle) when facing a team above .600 over their last 29 they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. Nova has been excellent on the road, but they are a high risk team, because they rely far too much on their perimeter play. In the first match up they hit 11 3

Cal -3.5 3.3* NCAAB POD & PAC12 GOWCal has clearly struggled of late going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 but that just gives us value in this spot against a Utah team that traditionally does not travel well. Cal would love to get a top 4 seed in the PAC 12 tourney and would need a win here to do so and improve to 13-3 at home. Cal is already +10 in ppg in home/away split compared with the Utes who have only won 1 road game all year in conference play.

Orlando Magic +7 4.4* NBA POD
We had the Rockets last night over the Heat as our free pick and we easily benefited from the Heat just playing poorly on the road. Now it's the Rockets turn as they go on the road after big win with a definite hang over opportunity facing the lowly Magic. On Friday they go back home to face the Pacers one of the best teams out of the East followed by the Blazers on Sunday. This is nothing more than a nice little trip to Orlando for these guys and it will show on the court. For the Magic, they at least play well at home where they have won 15 of their 19 wins this year. I expect them to play hard against a team that just beat the Heat.

Georgetown +4 5.5* NCAAB GAME OF THE WEEK[/b]
Georgetown is 10-1 ATS int heir last two seasons seeking revenge from a road loss earlier in the season and being home dogs tonight with everything on the line I think they will get that win. Georgetown has played their way off the NCAA bubble and need to win a few big games to get back into the NCAA Tournament and that starts tonight when they are home.

Doug McDermott leads Creighton, but had struggles in the first match up at home despite winning he only scored 14 points which was his second lowest output. Creighton relies far too much on there perimeter game and Georgetown plays great defense at home limiting opponents to 38% overall. In the first match up it was not Georgetown's defense that was the issue, but rather their inability to play it without fouling Creighton. I expect that to move in their favor tonight as they will be home and the other advantages will also move in their favor.

Bulls +3.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Nets just game off a 7 game road trip which ended with a nice two game win streak so they return home with plenty of momentum, but traveling west to east is no difficult task not to mention they were there for more than 7 days and are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. Many experts are going to claim the Nets have a ton of motivation tonight having already lost to the Bulls two times, but I just think it's a bad match up as they struggle against defensive oriented teams especially teams that can rebound as well. They had revenge against Indiana all season and went 0-4. I expect them to lose tonight against the Bulls who are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Bulls are also on 0 days rest which has inflated the line, but the Bulls are 8-4 ATS on the season on 0 days rest and their defense shouldn't suffer considering they cruised to an easy win vs. the Knicks yesterday.

Bulls are top in rebounding at #1 (Indiana is 4th), and 2nd in defense (Indiana is 2nd) so it is a very comparable match up and we mentioned the Nets went 0-4 against Indiana. The Nets have gone 6-16 against top 10 2 point defenses and 4-16 vs. top 10 rebound % teams for which Chicago falls under both categories for a 32-10 advantage. The Bulls held the Nets to 37% and 29.4% from 3 in the two match ups while enjoying a +24 rebound margin in wins of 16 and 17 points. They will win again tonight.

[b]Quinnipiac -1 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
Quinnipiac is a very good road team this year even at just 8-6, but they have played well after a loss going 4-0 ATS on the road 7-1 overall straight up following a loss. They will have a significant advantage on the boards today as Marist was out rebounded by nearly 10 in the first match up between these two where Quinnipiac escaped with a 5 point win. Luckily Marist hit 12 3's on 22 attempts or it could have been a blow out. I think we have a nice line value here and I'm not worried about the revenge as Marist has a losing record in conference play to Quinnipiac's 14-5 record. This team will be hungry following a loss and I see them improving to 8-1 straight up following a loss which they had at home in their last game to Siena.

NETS -130 4.5* nba pod
Even though the Nets lost last night by 44 points I expect them to bounce back with a win in Denver. This is a tough situation, but I believe they are capable with the veteran leadership they have on their team. The Nets lost by 24 points at home to Denver earlier season so not only are they going to be looking to erase last night's embarrassment, but they will look to revenge a 24 points loss from earlier in the year to Denver and those two ingredients usually spell $$ in the NBA as the Nets players will be at their highest point of motivation in Denver.

Georgetown +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD GAME OF THE WEEK
Georgetown and Marquette are in similar situations here on Thursday night being 16-11 overall and chasing after an NCAA Tourney bid and seeding for their conference tournament. This game is bigger for Georgetown who already lost at home to Marquette in OT. I really do not see much of a difference between these two teams and I expect Georgetown to be in this game and have a chance to win.

Not only has Georgetown statistically played better in conference play specifically on the defensive end, but they are more balanced as well. They have identical shooting %'s but they can knock down the 3 ball at a higher % than Marquette who averages 30% on the season, but was able to shoot over 41% in the first match up. Georgetown is the better team in my opinion and with Marquette getting Villanova next I'm guessing Georgetown will get the win. Georgetown defends at a rate of 42.5% compared with Marquette's 45.1% and Marquette is allowing 51.6% over their last 5 games combined. Marquette is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 conference games and I think they are getting too much credit because of Georgetown's struggles on the road.

3.3* POD

[b]New Orleans +7 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Mavericks have been great and their stock has never been higher defeating the Knicks last time out at the buzzer. Now they come home with the Pelicans while they have the Bulls and Spurs up next. This is a difficult spot because it's their 4th game in 6 days and they had a travel day in there as well. The Pelicans are not laying down for anyone and they come off a bad loss which means this young team is going to be motivated to come up with a big time win on the road.

I can easily see the Mavericks being a little hung over from their big win and winning a close game. The Pelicans are 30-11-2 ATS following a 10+ point loss which happened in their last game against the Clippers. I wouldn't sleep on the Pelicans as they still want to win games.

Magic +9 4.4* NBA POD
The Wizards have an inflated line here and are 0-5 ATS as a favorite at 9+ points and 2-10 ATS 83% angle for the Magic as a favorite above 5 points on the season and 8-18 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons between 3.5- 9.5 points. This line is inflated because the Wizards are off 3 straight wins and are playoff contenders while the Magic are not going to the playoffs.

One thing i look for in this situation though is if a team quit and the Magic have not quit. They have been in most of their last 8 games winning 4 of them and losing only 1 by more than 8 points. They won against the Thunder and the Pacers which is pretty impressive. The Wizards have a much bigger game to worry about up next and won't look to push their energy too much at this point of the season as they will have to travel to Canada to play the 3rd seeded Raptors. Both teams are on 1 day of rest where Orlando seems to play it's best basketball with it's best offense as far as PPG and best defense as far as PPG while Washington plays it's worst offense on 1 days rest and 2nd worse defense. We get solid value here tonight on the Magic.

[b]Knicks +135 4* NBA POD[/b]
The Mavericks stock is just much too high here and this is the exact type of team that the Knicks have success of beating. The Knicks have been an awful team this year but over their last 9 home games they have only lost 1 of them by more than 5 points and that was to the Miami Heat. I expect a hard fought game by the Knicks as they are still trying to get that 8th playoff seed and after back to back losses they should be hungry to play hard coming off a difficult road trip.

For the Mavericks this is their 3rd road game in 4 days for an aging jump shooting team that plays little defense. Dallas is the 5th worst in FG % defense and I don't see it getting any better in this game. I expect them to struggle as they are probably a little complacent from just winning back to back road games. I'll take the Knicks tonight on the money line to win a big game with their offense.

[b]Butler pk 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
Providence is off an emotional loss in 2 OT's in their last game to top ranked Villanova and now they have to go on the road to play Butler in a game that Butler wants revenge. Butler hung in there on the road against Providence, but ultimately lost due to their offense inefficiencies but I think that changes at home on Sunday. First of all Providence is a very streaky offensive team and has not played on the road shooting 38.5% and 27.6 % from three due in part to their star Bryce Cotton not being very consistent.

Butler shot just 42.9% while Providence shot 46%, I expect that to flip flop while Butler can not rebound worse and they should own the turnover margin. I expect Butler to win this game they are just 2-12 in conference play and are coming off a 20+ point loss. The stock could not be any lower on this Butler team, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss by 20+ and Providence is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss while going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on the road.

Colorado +4 4.4* NCAAB POD +160 1* bonus
Arizona is in a difficult spot here playing their third road game in a row with their last two going in overtime with 6 players getting 91% of the minutes and 5 players getting 91% of the minutes the game before. Now they will go and face Colorado who can easily get their opponents in foul trouble ranking 19th in FTA per game with 30.8 at home they will definitely get to the line and create advantages as Arizona is not a very deep team right now since losing Brandon Ashely.

These two already faced each other with Arizona winning, but really the only difference was Colorado turning the ball over and shooting the ball 38.5% compared to Arizona who shot 49.2%. Colorado at the time was dealing with the fact that they lost their point guard, but now they have clearly adjusted and post a 16-1 record at home. They are 6% better in shooting at home while Arizona is 7.1% worse on the road. Arizona's defense is 5% worse on the road and Colorado is 5% better in defense at home. Meaning I'm expecting Colorado to shoot better than Arizona tonight and win this game outright.

[b]Heat +3 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Heat have turned their game to a new level and have won 3 in a row on the road against playoff contending Golden State, Phoenix and Dallas. Facing the Thunder is clearly a different challenge, but with Russell Westbrook back in time to ruin the chemistry I will take the value that we rarely get on Miami as an under dog. I think the Thunder deserve to be favorites, but I think Westbrook in the end is too rusty and will take far too many shots.

Miami is also in a revenge situation here losing to the Thunder earlier this year and are 19-8 ATS dating back to last season when revenging a same season loss and they look to repeat that against the Thunder that have won 15 of their last 17 games all with Kevin Durant carrying the team. At some point their will be issues in chemistry for Westbrook and Durant and to beat the Heat you almost have to be perfect.

[b]Boston College -1 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
A rare opportunity for BC to beat a team that is not elite. Notre Dame is a rebuilding team this year and BC has recently run into a lot of tough competition, but they nearly beat Notre Dame on the road a few weeks back and I think they should have no trouble with the Irish here today.

First of all the biggest thing you need to take a look at when handicapping any game with BC involved is how the opponent defends the three. Since BC hucks up nearly half of their shots from beyond the arch you need to know if they are going to get good looks at the basket. Looking at what the Irish do it's easy to see that BC should have plenty of good looks on Sunday evening. ND allows 36.8% from three overall on the season but 40.4% on the road this year. I think BC will cruise to an easy win on Sunday as ND is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.

[b]Kentucky -140 3.5* NCAAB POD[/b]
I faded Florida on the road in their last game, but they got hot from outside hitting 8 three pointers and got to the FT line 5 more times than Tennessee while Tennessee shot horribly from the charity stripe. Playing Kentucky is going to be a new challenge and we have seen Florida struggle against good defenses this year which by the way they have not faced many. Actually they have not faced any defense that was in the top 25 in 2 point 3 point defense which Kentucky is. The 3 best opponents they faced from a defensive perspective was Arkansas (28th in 2 point defense, but 182nd in 3 pt defense, W by 2 in OT), Uconn (8th in 2 pt defense 54th in 3pt defense, L by 1), and Florida State (7th in 2 point defense and 92nd in 3 pt defense, W by just 1). You get the point Florida is not invincible against quality defenses and Kentucky has the offense to go along and the coaching. I expect a big win by Kentucky as they have gotten better as the season has progressed.

Rutgers +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Tremendous value on this line as it's definitely stretched a bit now that SMU is a top 25 opponent, but this is a completely different team on the road and they don't travel to the Northeast very often. We use their road game against Cinci and their home game vs. Cinci we see an 11 point different in the spread. Cinci already beat Rutgers by 14 at home as a -12.5 point favorites, instead of the line being 11 points different it's only 5 and I would argue it should be more when you factor in SMU lost at cinci by 8 points and won at home by 21 good for 29 point differential.

Rutgers on the other hand had to play Houston on the road and then Houston at home which is very comparable when you take a look at where each team is coming from to go on the road. At Houston they were 4 point under dogs and they lost by 22 then at home they won by 23 as a 3 point favorite. The loss by 22 on the road definitely impacted the line from being -6 or something different when Rutgers hosted Houston, but either way it was a 45 point overall difference. Now I'm not suggesting that Rutgers will win this game outright, but all they have to do is have an 8 point differential. In the first match up they could not have played worse as they shot 32.7% from the field allowed 46.5% and were -15 FTA, -4 turnovers and -4 rebounds. Rutgers providing their players were not out partying all night because of the snow should be well prepared knowing they have a great shot at upsetting a top 25 team.

LAKERS +11.5 3.3* NBA POD
The Thunder just won a very emotional road win over the Blazers in come back fashion led by the spectacular Kevin Durant. Up next is the All Star break followed by a showdown with the Heat. How much effort does this team want to give right now? I'd bet it's not much meanwhile the Lakers have a roster of guys trying to earn playing time with all of the injuries. The Lakers have played better when they are counted out and are only -3.1 ppg when they are 10+ point under dogs. They have covered all of their games at home against the elite teams in the league, Spurs, Clippers, Heat and Warriors.

Colorado +10 3.3* NCAAB POD
I'm going with the Buffs here as I like their opportunity to get revenge for the second time in two games. They lost earlier to Washington 54-71 and in their last game they won 91-65. In their first match up with UCLA they were playing their first game without the injured PG Spencer Dinwiddie and they have finally seemed to be used to it and are playing great basketball of late.

They were also out rebounded big time in the first match up which led UCLA to 16 more shots which I don't anticipate happening again as Colorado is 7th in the country in rebounding % while UCLA is 74th. Colorado is also +11.3 FTA overall and play better 2 point defense where both teams are going to shoot 70% of their shots. In fact Colorado is ranked 69th overall but is allowing 37% from 2 point land over their last 3 games compared to UCLA who is ranked 140th and allowing 50.5% over their last 3 games. UCLA is also off a double digit road win and are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 off a double digit road win.

Pittsburgh -1 4.4* NCAAB POD
Syracuse already won the first match up between these two old Big East rivals 59-54, but easily could have lost that game in my opinion. I was on Pitt +5 that game and got a push, but Pitt should have clearly covered that game. Now Syracuse has to go on the road as the #1 team in the land to play at Pitt where they are 2-6 in their last 8. Syracuse has not been tested on the road this season despite being 5-0 they have played the likes of St. Johns, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami and Wake. Neither of those teams know how to defeat Syracuse's zone defense like Jamie Dixon and Pitt do.

In the first match up Pitt really played a poor game and were still in the game. They shot 38.3% and allowed 51.2% from the field. Expect those to revers as Pitt shoots 47.8% at home and allows 38.5%. They shot 13-23 from the FT line while they are 72% at home on the season. They still should hold a rebound advantage like they did in the first match up and they have good guard play with a 1.71 assist to turnover ratio. Syracuse big man off the bench could be out for this game in Keita which could really give Pitt even more of an advantage inside. The fact that Syracuse is ranked #1 is based on their undefeated record and win over Duke, but all of their tough games have been at home. I don't think this team is that good compared to previous years. They are ranked 88th in 2 point defense while Pitt is ranked 39th so some stats are misleading. The public automatically sees Syracuse's record and assumes they are the better team, but not tonight.

Orange are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Pitt and we will continue to back the trend of ranked road teams. 9 top 25 teams have lost outright on the road over the last 3 days.

Tennessee +125 4.5* NCAAB POD
Tennessee was blown off the court by Florida earlier this year 67-41 as a +8.5 road under dog, but now they return home where they are a small under dog vs. the #3 team in the country. This is a great opportunity for the Volunteers to flex their muscles after they shot 26.8% from the field in the first match up. Florida will garner 65% of the public's money at this line easily tomorrow and I think they will lose this game outright. I'll pass on the juice and take them money line.

Tennessee will not repeat their poor shooting this time around as they shoot 46.5% at home from the field including 40.3% from three point land. They are also enjoying +8.4 FTA and +11.3 rebound margin. Florida on the other hand is 5-2 on the road, but their biggest win was against 15-8 Arkansas in OT. Their wins on the road have not been against good competition while they have lost to Wisconsin and Uconn. Florida already has a bigger game on the horizon against Kentucky.

West Virginia +110 4* NCAAB POD
Yesterday we gave you St. John's ML as an under dog winner as they cruised to a 5 point victory. We have been coming up with some big money line winners lately on our top plays.

In this game West Virginia is being under valued and Iowa State's stock is super high after they beat Oklahoma State on the road and cruised to a few other victories. Iowa State is only 3-3 on the road and as I mentioned in the St John's write up yesterday I like to fade teams that rely on the three point ball on the road. Iowa State shoots 40.5% of their shot attempts from three and they are not really that great shooting just 30.6% on the road. West Virginia does a decent job in defending the three allowing 28.9% over their last 5.

West Virginia is a young but talented team that is getting better and better as the season has gone along. Bob Huggins is one of the best coaches in the nation and his team will be ready to defeat Iowa State. West Virginia lost by 14 on the road to Kansas in their last game but watching that you could see a team that's ready to break through. They had Kansas on the ropes down just 2 late in that game before a barrage of scoring happened for Kansas to make the game worst than it actually was.

[b]St. John's +125 4* NCAAB POD[/b]
St. John's is an under rated team that is ranked #1 in blocks per game compared with Creighton who is ranked #342. They should have a significant advantage in the paint in this game and with a few extra days to prepare they should be able to come up with a game plan to win this game. Creighton is #1 in three point FG% which makes it a little easier to come up with a scheme to beat them. ST. John's did a great job in the first match up on the road losing just by three points and limiting them to 16 3PA since their average is 25 three point attempts. St. John's is athletic enough to give Creighton issues finding open looks especially at home where they are allowing 30.1% from three on the season and 38.5% overall.

Other than Creighton's great ability to find the open guy they are an average team in the AAC. I think St. John's should be able to come up with the upset on their home court with the significant advantage they will have in the paint as long as they can defend the perimater which they have shown they can do at times this season. Creighton is 5-1 on the road this year having lost to Providence 68-81 because Providence held them to 4-19 from three. Providence is not nearly as good in three point defense as St. John's.

New Orleans +4.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
New Orleans is playing some of their best basketball of late beating Minnesota, Atlanta, hanging with the Spurs, and the Bulls. They also beat Cleveland, Detroit and Memphis as road dogs in 3 of their last 4 games. They get some extra points here against the Nets because Brooklyn beat the Spurs in their last outing, but the Spurs were missing some very important players. The Nets will have their hands full against the Pelicans inside where they shoot well over 80% of their shots which is among the highest in the NBA. Brooklyn is not great at defending inside the arch and I think it will be enough for Anthony Davis and co to have an opportunity to come up with another road win as an under dog. What's more impressive for New Orleans is the defense they have been playing over their last 5 games allowing 41.8% from the field compared with the 50% Brooklyn is allowing. Brooklyn is just 2-7 ATS as a 3-5.5 point favorite this season and 14-35-2 ATS in their last 51 Sunday games.

N. Iowa +6.5 5.5* MAX NCAAB POD
This is tonight's top play as top 5 ranked Wichita State goes on the road to face an average Northern Iowa team. However, this is a similar spot to last year's game where Northern Iowa beat Wichita 57-52. The Shockers are 24-0 and nothing stands in their way from an undefeated regular season. This N. Iowa team though has been tough against very good opponents as they took Iowa State to OT and defeated VCU by 9 on this court.

It's clear that Northern Iowa is under achieving and have only covered 1 of their last 7 games while Wichita has covered 75% of their games on the year. The public is hammering on the Wichita and I think we see a shocking close game. Northern Iowa can take care of the ball 1.69 assist to turnover ratio at home and they are shooting 41% from beyond the arch. Statistically speaking we are getting value from Northern Iowa and I would not be shocked to see them pull off the upset here tonight.

Georgia +125 4* NCAAB POD
Georgia is my top play here on Thursday night as I think they are due for a win and being at home where they play excellent defense would not be a shocker. LSU just came off a few big wins and I think that run is about to run after being Kentucky and Arkansas big they are due for a let down while Georgia would love to spoil the party.

When I look at how both teams have performed in conference play I see similar stats as far as defense, but Georgia is the better rebounding team while LSU has the better guard play, but when Georgia is hosting opponent those stats are even more glaring obviously that they have a true advantage whether it comes from their style or the refs they are nearly +10 in rebound margin and +10 in FTA while they are ranked 7th in the country in 2 point defense where LSU will attempt most of their shots.

Stanford +3.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
Today's top play is on a tough Stanford team that has played well on the road going up against a California team that just came up with a huge victory that is inflating this line. California knocked off #1 Arizona and stormed the court and that was something Stanford came short of by just 1 point the game before. In fact both teams have had almost identical schedules of late and I really feel like Stanford has played just as well if not better so getting 3.5 points in a potential huge let down spot and a revenge spot gives me plenty of confidence backing the brains of Stanford on the road here.

Not only is this a big let down spot for California, but Stanford as I mentioned has revenge after they played arguably their worst game at home. They allowed California to shoot 45% from three and they themselves shot 50% from the FT line. I don't see that happening again and Stanford could use a big time win to help their tournament chances. They've won on the road in conference play again and I would not be shocked to see an outright victory here tonight as well.

Nuggets +2 4.4* NBA POD
The Nuggets have been beaten down by travel with this being their 9th road game in 11 games after they just hosted Utah before having to go back on the road for tonight's game against Denver and then back home to play the Miami Heat at home. Blake Griffin even admitted stating, "You can visibly see that guys are fatigued, especially in that GS game." Well now they have to go on the road with a look ahead game against the Heat up next. Playing at Denver is not easy with the altitude change and Denver will be on an extra day of rest for this game and they will also be getting Ty Lawson back at point guard.

The home team has taken the last 4 in the serious and I think there is a serious edge with Lawson coming back and Chris Paul still being out. The Nuggets did not lose twice in a row at home last season all year and here they are facing a situation where they could lose 3 in a row. I just don't see it happen and when you parlay the situation the Clippers are in I just don't expect that you'll see their best tonight with the Heat on deck. Denver is actually 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning record and have an extra day of rest which should pay huge dividends.

Furman +105 4* NCAAB POD
Statistically speaking Furman and Samford are very similar, but Furman is home this time and already lost to Samford on the road earlier this season despite being -11 FTA while Samford shot 84% from the FT line where they only average 63% on the road and are -7.9 FTA on the road which means Furman should get some extra attempts from the line today and that should be enough for the difference. Samford is 1-12 on the road and they have Davidson up next at home which is a good look ahead spot as they have already beaten Furman this year.

Broncos -2 5.5* MAX NFL POD
Both teams come into this game with their own strengths and at 3 losses a piece we saw where each team was most vulnerable. For Denver it's their defense particularly in pass coverage and for Seattle it's their run defense. The teams that showed success in beating Denver this season had to control time of posession and to do that you have to pick up third downs and have a QB that has poise in the pocket. Russell Wilson has been fantastic, but he just simply does not have the weapons to stay on the field. Their offense really struggled down the stretch and they were ranked 18th in third down offense converting just 37%. San Diego who gave Denver all kinds of issues was 2nd and had more of a pocket passer in Phillip Rivers. San Diego was also 2nd in TOP where Seattle is 17th.

To beat Seattle you have to be able to stop their running game and you have to be able to pound the ball because their pass defense is just so good. However, Denver's rushing attack has been hit or miss, but for Seattle they have not faced an offense with this many weapons all year. When you look at the opponents they have faced they have faced on 1 team in the top 10 in scoring and that was the Colts who they lost to. They only faced 2 teams in the top 10 in yards per play and Denver is #1. While they are great in pass rush and pass coverage Peyton Manning is just too smart and he'll let Richard Sherman take away Demaryious Thomas he still has Welker, Decker, and Julius Thomas and others while Monte Ball and Knowshown Moreno have shown explosiveness towards the end of the year as well. Seattle is weak against the rush ranked 13th and Arizona showed as well did Tampa as two poor rushing teams ranked 28th and 26th in ypc that you can run at this defense as both teams ran for over 139 yards on the road. The Seahawks are small in their front 7 and only played 4 teams in the top 10 all year in rushing ypc while on average they faced an opponent ranked 19th.

For Denver their key is to stop Marshawn Lynch and in my prop package I go on extensively on how they were very good against top 10 rushing attacks. Seattle is ranked 13th in ypc and Denver held many of the 9 top 10 rushing attacks under control while going 8-1 against those teams with their only loss coming at the hands of Tom Brady who had a great come back. Denver ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards allowed on the season and really buckled down in the playoffs. I really think this defense played better than I gave them credit while Seattle's offense played worse than I thought they would. Denver's strengths are much stronger than Seattle's and I do believe Seattle has more weaknesses that Denver can exploit. Denver has far too much experience and the NFL is now an offensive league I don't care how cold it is it seems as though the offensive team forces its hand much more often than the defensive team and that favors the Broncos big. I would not be shocked if we saw the Broncos run away with this game, because I just don't think Seattle can score with Denver.

Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit)
I've got the over in this one as Seattle was #2 in the league this season allowing just 39.02% TD's in the red zone while Denver ranked 28th at 62.12%. Denver was #1 in red zone offense with 72.73% of their opportunities resulting in a TD, but they struggled over their last 3 at just 57.14% while Seattle ranked just 14th, but only 25% over their last 3. Both teams also have 2 experienced kickers in Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka who can kick it in the cold. I think both defenses will have the advantage in this situation.


First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit)
I see a lot of value in this line because of what I mentioned from both teams in the red zone, but looking at the numbers there have been 36 games played by these two teams this year and it's an exact split with 18 of the 36 being having a field goal as the first score of the game.

Only 4 of the Broncos 18 games resulted in a FG being the first score of the game. Those 4 games were against the Patriots, Chiefs, Giants, and Texans. That sounds amazing only the Broncos faced just one team that was ranked in the top 10 in red zone defense and they faced that team in week 1 at home when the Ravens defense was basically rebuilt and not performing at the time. They faced 5 of the 6 worst teams in red zone defense and their division was very bad, Chargers who they played 3 times were ranked 24th, Oakland 22nd and the Chiefs 16th.

Seattle really struggled to get the ball in the end zone down the stretch and I like that Denver's strength is defending the run. Seattle really lacks a red zone threat and that's going to make it hard for them. The first score in both of the Seahawks playoff games have been field goals and that's been the story in 8 of their last 9 games and in reverse of Denver only 4 games of their 18 resulted in a TD being scored first which is proof that we have the value at +120.

Seahawks U132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit)
I like the under here, because the Broncos have been a very under rated rushing defense ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards per game. Broncos were 10th in big rushing plays allowed which is in the company of the 49ers and the Cardinals teams Seattle struggled to run on this year. That's the only way I see the Seahawks getting over this number but with the extra time to prepare I just don't see them finding those type of holes in a game this big. Denver has played their fair share of mobile QB's in Vick, Pryor (2x), and RGIII and have kept them under control.

In Fact the Broncos have faced 9 of their 18 opponents who are ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc and have only allowed 107.33 in those games with only 3 going over the 132.5. While the Seahawks have played just 8 games against top 10 rushing defenses and only averaged 112.5 compared with their season average of 112.5.


Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units)
Both QB's take care of the ball as Denver was ranked 2nd with a 1.46% interception percentage of passing attempts, while Russell Wilson was 7th at 1.94%. Denver was ranked 18th at forcing interceptions this year and they could have been worse considering how much they were probably able to gamble being up big in games. Now Seattle was ranked 1st in opponent INT%, but they faced only 3 QB's that I would consider elite. Drew Brees 2x, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan and those 4 games resulted in 0 INT's on 146 passing attempts.


Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion U37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units)
I'm taking the under here not only did Seattle only allow 15 passing plays over 25 yards all year over 18 games, but the Broncos mostly dominated the weak passing defenses facing just 3 opponents in the top 15 in big passing plays allowed. In those 3 games Manning attempted 153 passes with only 1 pass going for more than 37.5 yards which was a 38 yard connection to Demaryius Thomas against the Titans. Seattle has a great pass rush and sure tacklers on the back end. Manning won't take a chance at getting sacked as he led the league in being sacked the fewest times. I expect him to be getting rid of the ball quick with a balanced running attack meaning this play has plenty of value in my opinion.

[b]South Florida +14.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Cinci comes into this game off a huge win against Louisville and remain undefeated in AAC conference play having already beaten South Florida on the road they are probably looking ahead to their game against Uconn 4 days later. South Florida just got revenge in their last game against SMU, which is the best defensive team in the nation while scoring 76 points. Cinci is just 7-30 ATS in their last 37 Sunday game while South Florida is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Bearcats.

Duke +3 4.4* NCAAB POD
Duke is really clicking right now on the offensive end taking care of three of the best defensive teams in the country. They need this game and have 2 extra days to prepare for it. Syracuse has far too many offensive struggles and need to turn this into a defensive game, but I think Duke is just clicking from the perimeter too much and we are getting a ton of value here as Duke is the better team with the worse record. Syracuse also is not the defensive team they have been in previous years ranked 106th in 2 point defense and what appears to be more problematic 123rd vs. the 3 allowing 33.3%. Duke is shooting over 41% from three on the season and they carry that on the road while Syracuse has not defended well compared to last year when they allowed opponents to shoot 28.4% from three.

Wyoming +115 3* NCAAB POD

4.5* nba pod

3.3* NBA POD

St Peters +6.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
St Peters is a bad match up for Iona, because they can play defense ranked 122nd in 2 point defense and 69th in 3 point defense where Iona will attempt well over 40% of their shots. St Peters is even better defending the perimeter in conference play and at home where they keep themselves in every game. Iona is just 3-6 on the road and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 following a 20+ victory which is proof that they may get a little too confident at times. They are also 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 vs. a team with a win% less than .400. They also have Manhattan who is #1 in the MAAC up next so they are clearly peaking ahead to that game and I think they could slip up here a bit or at least get into a battle with St Peters.

St Peters is also a far better rebounding team as Iona is -9.3 rebounding on the road, they also struggle shooting from the FT line on the road at 65.5% and are 239th in 2 point defense. I just don't think a team like that travels well as a road favorite with a big game on deck. I expect this to come down to the wire as St Peters offense will actually work a bit against Iona while their defense locks down the perimeter.

[b]Texas Tech -1 5.5* NCAAB POD[/b]
Tech gets to host a #25 team on their home court and I think they come up with the upset. Oklahoma should already be looking ahead to their rivalry game at home on Monday (in only 2 days) against Oklahoma State and then they face Iowa State after that. When we look at the stats you see that Texas Tech is the better shooting team and defensive team and they also rebound better. The same holds true if you look at just each team's conference play numbers.

Second thing I looked at was each team's tendencies and Oklahoma relies far too much on the 3 ball shooting over 40% in conference play and on the road. Texas Tech actually defends the three very well despite their last road performance as they only allow 31.1% at home this season. Tubby Smith already called his team's last defensive performance "horrible performance." Smith really seems to be able to get through to his players and I expect them to play great defense here. In their 5 games following a defensive effort that allowed 75+ points they are 4-1 and have only allowed 65.6 points per game.

I also feel that Texas Tech's offense should click as Oklahoma is 205th in defending the two point game where Tech makes most of their shots. They also have not defended the three ball well on the road so look for Tech who shoots the ball over 50% at home to take full advantage. One thing that I did find interesting about Oklahoma which is true of any three point shooting team. If you are going to take a bunch of three pointers you better rebound the ball and isn't it ironic that in the 4 losses Oklahoma has had they are -29 in rebound margin. Enter Texas Tech who is ranked 46th in rebounding % and even better at home with a 54.9% rate. I think Tech wins the rebound advantage and wins this game by double digits.

Richmond -145 5** NCAAB POD

Purdue -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
I love Purdue tonight as our top play as Northwestern comes off a huge win on the road against Indiana as a +13 under dog. They held the Hoosiers to 25% shooting which had more to do with just how bad Indiana was than how good NW's defense is. Northwestern also has another ranked opponent on deck in Iowa at home who is ranked 10th overall. Purdue has already won 2 of their 3 road games as an under dog in conference play and covered all three and I think this is just a bad match up for Northwestern who relies far too much on the three ball.

Purdue is defending the perimeter well of late allowing just over 30% in their last 5 while Northwestern will huck up over 40% of their shots from outside they are only shooting 26% in their last 5 and 36% overall in their last 5. Sure Northwestern can beat anyone on any given night, but I don't see them winning this game as they are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 following a SU win and 1-9 ATS following an ATS win. Purdue will have a significant advantage on rebounding and ability to force turnovers as well.

Kings -107 4.5* NBA POD[/b]
I love this spot for the Kings because they have an extra day of rest and they get to seek revenge from an earlier loss at home to New Orleans. They lost as a -1 favorite at home and now they are a -1 favorite on the road? New Orleans just played a tough game last night against the Memphis Grizzlies. A game they won as a +7.5 under dog and I think they will suffer a bit of a hang over here going up against the Kings who play better defense.

The Kings are playing very well defensively inside allowing opponents 3% less than their season average of 49.9%. That's important because the Hornets shoot over 80% of their shots from inside while the Kings shoot nearly 77% of their shots from inside. New Orleans is dead last in the league in two point defense making this a favorable match up for the Kings. The Kings have played well of late too winning games at Minnesota as a +9.5 and winning at Houston as a +10. They have covered 5 of their last 7 road games both of which were against two of the best two point defenses in the league in the Thunder and the Pacers.

NEBRASKA +8.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Revenge game from an earlier loss to Ohio State who is off 3 losses. Nebraska is not about to lay down for Ohio State as they are still in search of their first conference win and have been a tough team at home. I look for them to keep within striking distance all game.

[b]Bucks +15 4.4* NBBA POD[/b]
Spurs are already benching Tony Parker who is not 100% so he can be healthy against the Thunder in a few days and the Spurs are definitely looking ahead to that game because they have already gone 0-2 against the Thunder this year. 15 points is just too many for a Bucks team that does play good defense inside ranked 12th in 2 point defense and that's where the Spurs take over 75% of their shots. I think they shot well last night 50% and that should carry over for the Bucks here today as the Spurs look ahead and win by just single digits.

Patriots +5.5 -104 5.5* NFL POD
Denver's defense has looked almost elite recently, but lets cool down a bit the loss of CB Chris Harris is a big one and they are already without Von Miller. They have only faced 6 opponents in the top 10 in scoring offense and 2 times it was KC who is only at that level because of their defense. They faced Dallas and allowed 48 points, New England and allowed 34 (31 in 1 half), Colts 39, and the Eagles 20 - who were still with Mike Vick. Now New England's offense has evolved and I think it's going to be extremely challenging for the Broncos to come up with a game plan. I wouldn't be shocked if Brady and co came out firing and throwing it 40 times after last week's run first campaign, but they can clearly run the ball too as Lagarrette Blount showed down the stretch.

I just think we are getting tremendous value on the Patriots with more than a field goal to play with. Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 20-8 ATS when they are under dogs 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 45-26-3 ATS in their last 74. The line is marked up a bit because of the great season Peyton Manning had and everything he has to prove, but don't think for a second that Tom Brady doesn't have something to prove. Most people still consider Brady the worse QB of the two and Brady still wants another ring and there is a reason he is 18-7 in the playoffs while Manning is 10-11 and Brady is 10-4 straight up vs. Manning. Overall it's a team game and I think the Patriots have the better team and coaching staff and I think we are getting some line value here especially since it went back up to 5.5. Don't forget the Patriots turned the ball over 3 times and handed the Broncos a big 1st half lead and I'm not so sure the Broncos wouldn't have lost by 20 points had that not happen. I'm predicting the Patriots to win this game outright although I'll only wager on the side since I already have a futures play pending on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

Pitt +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
A couple of old Big East rivals that moved their rivalry to the ACC. These teams know each other well so I expect a close game and Jamie Dixon has actually owned the series of late winning 6 of the last 8. There are some tendencies for each team and looking at the stats I think Pitt who is not afraid of playing at the Carrier Dome and certainly knows how to beat the 2-3 defense that Syracuse deploys.

Both teams shoot 70% + of their shots from two point range. Pitt is ranked 20th in FG% from inside while Syracuse is ranked 114th. Pitt is 31st in 2 point defense while Syracuse is 151st and there has been a slightly stronger schedule that have gotten Syracuse to those numbers, but when you look at the fact that Pitt also has an edge in rebounding %, and they are the better FT shooting team as well as the better assist to turnover ratio and the fact that Syracuse starts a true freshman at PG. I think we are looking at a game that Pitt will have a good chance to win or at least the game should come down to the wire.

Bulls +165 4* NBA POD
I like the Bulls to pull a nice revenge spot here and beat the high flying Wizards tonight. Just two games ago the Bulls lost at home to this team and then the Wizards backed it up by beating the Heat as a +5.5 point favorite. Now they feel the hang over effect and lose this game to the Bulls. For one I don't think the Heat are playing their best basketball right now as they have lost three straight and this is a young team that is probably a bit too high on themselves right now.

For the Bulls they keep winning with defense and they are ranked #2 in 2 point defense which both of these teams shoot more than 75% of the time. Chicago has been struggling with defense, but they can quickly go back to the tape and see all the mid range jumpers that the Wizards made and make the necessary adjustments to dominate here tonight. The Wizards will have to defend inside the arch which they have not done well this year ranked 25th in the NBA while the Bulls will attempt 80% of their shots from that distance. Before the Miami win the Wizards were losers of 7 of 8 at home and the Bulls would love nothing more than to stay ahead of the Wizards for the playoffs as they have similar records.

Bulls are also 36-16 ATS int heir last 57 Friday games!

Colorado -1 4.4* NCAAB POD

3.3* POD

4.4* NCAAB POD

Lafayette +4.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

[b]Bucks +10.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Milwaukee will look to avenge their home opening loss to the Raptors, a team they have regularly handled including going 6-0 ATS in their last 6 visits to Toronto. However, the Bucks are on a terrible run right now and are 0-7 ATS this year as a double digit under dog. The 7 teams they faced as a double digit under dog though were the Thunder, Heat, Spurs Mavericks, and the Warriors. I just do not see the Raptors in the same light and I think the Bucks have a lot of value here because the Raptors have covered 9 straight games. Look for the Bucks to play a better game after they were embarrassed in their last game by the Thunder.

[b]Chargers +8 4.4* NFL POD[/b]
The Chargers are still flying under the radar and really came down the stretch playing their best football. Last weekend they won despite losing their best offensive linemen to a stinger, but I expect him back this week which will only help. Nobody played the Broncos tougher than the Chargers did this season. The Chargers were the only defense to hold the Broncos under 400 yards and they did it twice by limiting the number of plays by controlling the time of possession. There is nothing that Peyton Manning can do to fix that. It will be completely up to the defense of the Denver Broncos to limit what Phillip Rivers and the Chargers do to control the clock and I don't think they are up to the task. The Chargers are running the ball as good as any team in the league behind their offensive line and Ryan Mathews and the always under rated Danny Woodhead.

There is also something to be said about playing a divisional opponent in the playoffs because that means it is the third time you face a team. If anything this game should stay close because these teams know each other well. Peyton Manning did not have an extra week to prepare against the Chargers, because he did not know they were going to win until last week. Manning who has struggled in the playoffs for whatever reason has also struggled against the Chargers defense many times. I see his possessions being limited by the Chargers who will dominate the time of possession again.

Utah State -2 5.5* MAX NCAAB POD
I'll go with the Aggies here as they are a very solid team that lost at Air Force in their last road game as a -7.5 point favorite, but we are getting value because of that and they rebounded nicely at home and have had an extra 4 days to prepare and scheme against a Nevada team that just won a big one 2 days ago on the road against their in state rival UNLV as a +8 under dog. Here comes the hang over effect against a very very good Utah State team.

Nevada just got lucky more than anything as UNLV played their worst game of the season shooting the ball going 3-20 from down town. To put that in perspective Nevada is ranked 225th in defending the 3 and now they go back home where they are allowing opponents to shoot over 38% 6% worse than what they allow on the road. Utah state has been very consistent shooting over 40% from three at home or away and they have balance ranked 67th in the country shooting the ball inside, and 80% from the FT line. Nevada on the other hand is ranked 123rd in 2 point offense and 284th in 2 point defense. They are going to have issues defending a Utah State team that's hungry for their first big road win. Utah State is also ranked 6th in total rebounding % while Nevada is 124th. I really like this match up for Utah State and so do my algorithms. I'm going to make it a rare max play.

Saints +10 4.4* NFL POD
Once this jumped to 10 points this morning at several books I just could not pass up the value. I realize the Saints got smoked here earlier in the season in what was a huge game which set up home field advantage and that the Saints have struggled on the road. However, I think the fact that the Saints did play here in a BIG game where the world record was set for noise in a Stadium means they will be better prepared or at least better prepared for what happened that night. Drew Brees is already making adjustments as well as Sean Payton for this big game.

I think having a bye is sometimes a disadvantage and I think the Saints are starting to click after winning a big road game last week where they put up 185 yards rushing. Mark Ingraham, Khiry Robinson, and Darren Sproles were great against the Eagles and I think that's where they can beat this Seahawks team. The Seahawks are not a big bunch in the front 7 and all year long when they have struggled at home it's been when they gave up some rushing yards. Take a look at the Tampa game where they had come back to win 27-24 as a 16 point favorite. Mike James rushed for 158 yards that game and then their game against the Cardinals at the end of the season they gave up 143 yards rushing in a 17-10 win. The Saints only rushed the ball 16 times in their last trip to Seattle and coming off a game where their rushing game worked gives them plenty of confidence to run it 20+ times and if they do that I see them covering this huge number. Both the Cardinals and the Bucs did not have a QB like Brees and I think Brees can have a decent game here today against this secondary.

For the Seattle offense they struggled down the stretch and were no longer putting up huge numbers. I think their offense can do enough to win, but it's going to have to be by running the ball against the Saints defense. Russel Wilson has plenty of weapons now that Percy Harvin is back, but you have to wonder just how healthy Harvin is and just how hard he's going to play. The Seahawks are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games and that trend just can not continue and I think there is a lot of value in laying 10 points because Vegas is pushing this number so far up there.