[b]RAMS +7 5.5% POD[/b]

The Rams could not have looked worse a week ago, but I don't think they are this bad.  There has been roughly a 4 point adjustment made, and the Rams may have been peaking ahead to this game anyway.  Rams are 6-2 ATS against Russell Wilson, who is coming in to this game banged up.  Also worth noting is how bad the Seahawks offensive line is.  This is clearly not the same team and the strength of the Rams defense is the defensive line.  This is their first game in LA, and I expect them to make a statement and have a chance to pull off the upset.  I'm not a huge fan of Case Keenum, but Todd Gurley is arguably a top 3 running back.  I think this is a low scoring game and 7 points is just too much value here for the home team.

Michigan State +8 5.5% max rating play

Mark Dantonio has been absolutely money in this situation of being an under dog.  Michigan State is 12-2 ATS as a dog with 9 outright upsets including two last year on the road against Michigan and Ohio State.  He's got plenty of time to prepare for this game, and I see no reason why this defense won't be strong once again.  They have 6 returning starters including Malik McDowell up front to help stop the run.  The linebacking corps is great, and they get Ed Davis returning for his 6th year of eligibility granted by the NCAA.  Shit I couldn't even get 4 years in division 2. 

The key for me is Michigan State stopping the run, and knowing what we know about Michigan State I can confidently say they will be good against the run with all the talent they have coming in along with the fact that they have an extra week to prepare.  Notre Dame was held under 200 yards rushing 7 times last year and averaged 29 points per game as opposed to over 40 ppg when they rushed for more than 200 yards.  To open this season they played Texas and Nevada and ran over 200 yards on both of them so the idea is that this offense is going to be great again, but in comes Michigan State with other plans.

Notre Dame actually did not play well last week despite covering the spread.  It was a 0-0 game after 1 quarter and then Nevada's special teams gave up a long punt return, and they had a safety and before you knew it the score was 25-0 at the half.  Meanwhile Michigan State struggled against Furman in week 1.  I seem to remember them struggling last year against Western Michigan to open the season before beating Oregon in their next game.

The other thing to consider here is the fact that Notre Dame actually returns just 9 starters compared to Michigan State's 10, and they have 10 more letterman than does Notre Dame.  Notre DAme also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Big Ten and Brian Kelly really does not have a lot to go by for this game.  I mean Michigan State has a new QB and they really did not show much against Furman.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed quite a bit of their weaknesses in the game against Texas.  If Michigan State does not turn the ball over they cover this game. 

TEASER ALERT - JETS +8.5 W/ CARDINALS -1 4.4% 

Jaguars +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

The Jaguars were getting pre-season hype, but when playing the Packers that goes out the window.  The public simply loves to back the big name QB, and that's no exception to open up the season.  The Jaguars have the offensive weapons to score with anyone and I think this is a huge statement game for them.  It also helps they are playing this in their home state.  This is not an easy trip for a cold weather team to be making even if it is in September.  Humidity is a key here as it's going to be in the 90's and will be near 70% humidity which I do give an edge to the Jaguars for. 

The Packers are not taking this Jaguars team seriously and probably are overlooking them a bit here with their division game against the Vikings up next week.  After all they are 19-61 over the last 5 years, but Jacksonville has the weapons on both sides of the ball.  The defense is very under rated, but extremely athletic.  I can see rookie corner Jalen Ramsey making a big play or two, and the Jaguars first round pick a year ago Dante Fowler is also a candidate to cause nightmares for offensive lines which is key, because the Packers are already without their starter Corey Linsley at Center which is a very underrated and under appreciated position in the NFL.

WASHINGTON STATE +10.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I like the Cougars to rebound this week after losing to Eastern Washington.  We have your classic sell high buy low situation with Boise State coming off a huge 45-10 win over ULL, and Washington State losing to a FCS school in Eastern Washington.  Look Washington State did the same thing a year ago opening up and losing against Portland State, a team Eastern Washington lost by just 3 points to.  I can’t buy much stock in that since Eastern Washington was likely preparing for that game all summer long.  Under Mike Leach this team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss, and they are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog.  Oh and by the way this is a team that has won games on the road against teams like USC, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Cal.  This team that lost to Portland State a year ago, missed a field goal that would have beaten Stanford a year ago.  I also had this line at 6 in favor of Boise before what happened last week which means we are getting over 4.5 points of value through two key numbers of 7 and 10.

Boise State has their own issues this year despite what the media wants to tell you.  I’ll start with the offense that does return 8 guys (So does Washington State’s offense).  They are losing two offensive lineman that were first team All Mountain West and they were at LT, and C probably the two most important positions on an offensive line.  They have a new offensive coordinator, oh wait two co-offensive coordinators in Scott Huff and Zak Hill.  Huff has been with Boise for years and has no experience calling plays, and Zak Hill came over from Hawaii where he was the offensive coordinator a year ago.  Now I understand why they need two guys to run the show.  I’m surprised a team with a brand name like Boise State cannot get better coaching.  I haven’t been sold on Bryan Harsin either and the coaching moves he is able to make makes more sense to me why this team has under achieved since Chris Peterson has left.

As we saw in the opener Washington State’s offense will be just fine.  That leaves things open in this game for a back door cover in case Boise gets up early.  Washington State returns 8 starters, an experienced offensive line and Luke Falk at QB.  Boise State’s defense loses starters in the worst possible places.  They replace their entire defensive line, and 2 of their guys in the secondary that were All Mountain West defensive backs.  Yet, everyone is ready to jump all over Boise State as a dark horse team to get to the college playoff, I think not.  This game should be back and forth, but Washington State’s defensive coordinator Alex Grinch improved this defense 27 spots last year from 2014.  He spent 3 seasons at Missouri helping the secondary and has a bright future.  

Syracuse +14.5 4.4% POD; Syracuse +480 0.5%

This seems like a perfect storm for an upset with Syracuse hosting Louisville on a Friday night the week before they will host Florida State.  Talk about a look ahead spot.  Right now you can grab Syracuse at +480 and that’s exactly what we will do as a little extra.  The Carrier Dome is a tough place to play and I really like the moves Syracuse made brining in Dino Babers the offensive guru.

Babers coming over from Bowling Green studied under Art Briles for 4 years and runs a high pace offense that is capable of putting up a lot of points.  Watch out for Syracuse at home.  Even if they are in a spot to win they will be capable of the backdoor cover here, but I don’t think that will be needed.  Brian Ward comes in as the defensive coordinator, he was Baber’s guy a year ago and dramatically improved that defense from 97th to 46th.  He’s used to coaching defense with a fast paced offense.  Louisville does not really see a team like this so it will be interested how they handle any loss of momentum. 

Louisville looked great a week ago coming out with a 56-0 first half on a Thursday night when most public bettors were watching and they most certainly remember.  Syracuse sort of got loss in the midst of Friday night and only covered the spread by 2.5 points. QB Eric Dungey looked great, and Syracuse has tons of options at receiver, and I love their experience in the secondary and on this team overall as they return 90% of their production from a year ago.  I think Dino Babers gets a jump start on the turn around here at Syracuse and comes up with a big upset on Friday night.  Much like we predicted with Army in week 1. 

Missouri +10.5  5.5% Play of the Day

This is far too many points for a top 10 defense that returns 6 of their front 7 on defense.  This is a defense that despite ranking 118th in time of possession was 3rd in yards per play allowed.  Their defensive coordinator Bary Odom takes over as the head coach and there is a lot to be excited about with this team with a chance to pull off an upset in week 1.

Obviously pre-season and media hype is typically about offense and that’s why I think the spread is where it is for this game.  West Virginia typically has a good offense especially under Dana Holgorsen and many are calling for his best offense with an experienced offensive line and senior QB, but I’m not sold.  You all are aware of my feelings on the Big 12, and the Mountaineers are just 9-9 the last two years in this conference now going up against the SEC’s top defense other than Alabama.  West Virginia has struggled against top 40 defenses from a yards per play perspective going 1-9 over the last 3 years, 0-7 over the last two years.  Missouri is just that, but what about their offense?

Listen Missouri was awful on offense last year, and I expect them to score a TD more per game with Drew Lock coming back at QB.  The 4 star QB put on 20 lbs, and gets two key transfers along with his top 2 targets at WR back.  Alex Ross, a 4 star guy comes over to play RB from Oklahoma, and WR, Chris Black another 4 star guy comes over from Alabama.  The offense will improve despite a rebuilt offensive line which can only be a good thing when you look at what they did a year ago.  I just hope this Missouri team runs the ball more and they could win this game outright when you consider Josh Heupel taking over the offense, and West Virginia losing 7 starters on defense. 

Army +15 4.4% NCAAF Play of the Day

This could be the best Army team since 1996, at least offensively.  Jeff Monken played so many of his young recruits in previous years that this Army team has the most veterans in over 10 years.  Army, showed a lot of potential down the stretch and we spoke about them a ton in our pre-season podcasts.  They had 7 loses a year ago by 7 points or less so they are very well capable of staying in games.  You could argue they should have won the Army/Navy game.  On defense they return 9 starters, which is their most in 25 years.

Temple on the other hand should be good again and their defense should be good, but this is a tough draw for week 1.  Especially since this team did not face Navy last year, and they go from being ranked #9 in returning experience in 2015 to #66 in 2016.  They lose their best defensive player in Matakevich, and they bring in a new offensive coordinator.  I just don’t see a lot of points in this game, and the last time Temple faced a triple option team in 2014 they gave up 487 yards rushing.

Both these teams were ranked at the bottom of the nation in pace.  Army 128th, with Temple at 95.  It will be hard for Temple to win this game going away and that’s what the oddsmakers are predicting.  

Royals +125 4% MLB POD

I am going to back Edinson Volquez here who has been pitching great as of late over A.J. Griffin who posts an ERA over 4.00 at home and 7.20 over his last three starts.  I think the Royals are due to start hitting and they have 9 runs over their last two games.  The biggest advantage they have is out of the bullpen.  The Rangers have the leagues 29th ranked bullpen which did not come in to play last night when they sent Cole Hamels to the mound, but Griffin rarely goes deep into games pitching 6 innings just once in his last 8 starts.

Texas bullpen has a 5.55 ERA at home a 4.90 overall compared to the Royals 3.39 and 3.01 on the road.  It's now or never for the Royals if they want to get back in the mix. 

Astros -149 5% MLB POD play

The Yankees have been on a roll winning 6 of 8 games, but it seems they have hinted at their intentions the rest of the way by trading Chapman which weakens their bullpen.  Yankee players have to be a little bit bummed out by that and now they go on the road to play arguably the best team in the AL in the Houston Astros who are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.

I also like fading Michael Pineda after a quality start as he was outstanding last time out, but he comes into this game off 113 pitches and goes up against a starting pitcher in Dallas Keuchal has started to right the ship on his season and posts a 1.22 ERA in 5 career starts against the Yankees. The Yankees are ranked 27th in the league in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 2.25 runs per 9 over their last 10.  

The Yankees although still a great bullpen we don't know if anyone might get pulled tonight for a trade and even still they are not as good as a whole as the Houston Astros who rank #3 overall and post a 2.61 bullpen ERA at home compared to the Yankees 4.83 bullpen ERA on the road.  This to me is a complete mismatch and I don't mind spending extra juice on making a play. 

Orioles +118 5* MLB POD

I like the Orioles in this spot as I see them a bit more focused and I love the value with them as a dog going up against a Rays team that's not very good coming in with a 16-26 record.  The Rays have been pushed to favorites with heavy action mainly because of Chris Archer.  Archer has a 2.70 ERA at home, but I don't care about that because he's last 7 innings against the Orioles only 1 time in his last 10 starts.  Archer has control issues and had a below average first half.  That's not to say the Orioles starter Yovanni Gallardo is much better he's actually worse.  Gallardo is going up against the 26th ranked offense in terms of OPS against RHP while the Orioles are #2.  The Orioles also have a major advantage in their bullpen where this game will likely come down to.  Baltimore ranked #4 in bullpen ERA compared with the Rays 27th.  So they only advantage is Archer and his 2.70 ERA? 

Giants -163 5* MLB POD

Mariners +126 5* MLB POD

I'll back the southpaw here in this spot given the fact that he's going against a team ranked 25th in OPS vs.LHP.  The Mariners also have a significant edge in their bullpen ranking 5th in bullpen ERA to the Cardinals 14th ranking.

Under 207 5.5* NBA POD

Cavs +1.5 4.4* NBA POD

Royals +111 4* MLB POD

Mariners -125 4* mlb pod

RED SOX +105 4* MLB POD

Royals +134 4* POD

Dodgers +151 4* MLB POD

I think there is a lot of value here on the Dodgers the way they have been hitting.  They have also been hitting LHP very well and I see no distinct advantage here between the two starting ptichers of Alex Wood vs. Drew Smyly.  Smyly for the Rays has been off the charts, but he's faced offenses ranked 19th, 23rd, 29th, and 27th.  The Dodgers are the best offensive and most difficult match up for Smyly to date.

Tampa has hit lefties a little better, but not of late and the Dodgers bullpen has been better of late. I also think Alex Wood showed some momentum in his last start.  Wood has faced offenses ranked 15th, 2nd, 30th, 11th and 3rd.  He's capable of giving a quality start and the Dodgers are capable of scoring a lot of runs. Smyly has a 2.60 ERA overall but an ERA over 4 in his 3 home starts. 

[b]Pirates -126 4* MLB POD[/b]

I will fade Jason Hammel here tonight who posts a 3-0 record and a 0.75 ERA, but he has been a little lucky and his ERA is bound to come back to where it should be (around 4.00) according to his raw stats.  He's walking over 3 guys per 9 and has a 4.35 ERA over his last 4 outings vs. the Pirates.  

Gerrit Cole meanwhile has pitched better with a 2.88 ERA in 9 career starts vs. the Cubs.  Cole has similar stats, but better overall control and has held Cubs hitters to .676 OPS over 107 AB.  

Broncos +6 5.5* NFL POD; Broncos +197 1* bonus

It seems like everyone is on the Panthers for this game, but late action coming in on the Broncos possibly as the line has moved down off the 6 to 5.5, but 6 is regularly available still and I’m taking the Broncos at +6. (Stay tuned for my bonus prop package which will be added at the end of this write up late Saturday early Sunday).

Listen, the Panthers have looked unstoppable and have dones so against 2 of the better defenses in the NFC, but I still don’t think those defenses were as healthy, and they certainly are not nearly as good as this Denver group (more on that later).  I actually backed the Panthers in the NFC Championship big, and it paid off, but the final score is misleading and it has everyone backing Cam Newton and the Panthers for this Super Bowl.  I have heard 8 out of 10 people stating how the Panthers will win and dominate, but I’m not so sure for various reasons.  The most common reason I hear is the “Panthers offense is unstoppable, and the Broncos offense is awful.”  I also hear that Panthers defense is just as good as Denver.  I disagree, and we have seen the Broncos move their offense against good defenses.  4 of their last 5 games they have scored 20+ points and have done so against top defenses.

Let’s get into the misleading fact of the Denver offense and Carolina offense, because I think it’s critical to bring up.  Let’s look at stats and strength of schedule.  Denver comes in with the 24th ranked offense on paper form a yards per play perspective and they have done this with 2 QB’s and a very conservative approached offense.  Along with that they have faced 11 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  So their offense has had a tough challenge all year.  When you look at Carolina in comparison it really does not compare.  The Panthers have faced just 6 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  Their division opponents not very good in Atlanta and New Orleans so that plays a big factor, but this team really hasn’t played a defense like Denver with the exception of Seattle.

They scored 31 and 27 points on Seattle and that was impressive, but Denver is a better defense.  They run a 3-4 with size as opposed to the 4-3, and Denver can get to the QB unlike Seattle this year.  Denver ranks #1 in sack %.  Before I get into the pass defense of the Denver Broncos we all know that stopping the Panthers is going to be about stopping the run.  Denver ranks #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed.  I mentioned in my Panthers write up last week the size of the inner linebackers for the Cardinals was going to be a huge issue as they average 226lbs, but Denver averages 249.  Carolina has faced just 4 teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry defense.  Tampa, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.  In reality those defenses really don’t scare you with the exception of Seattle and not any of these teams ranked top 10 in all 4 key pass defense categories that I look at – opponent pass yards per completion, sack % of drop backs, opponent QB rating, and opponent QB completion %.

Cam Newton only faced 2 teams this season ranked in the top 10 in passing defense completion %.  I bring that up, because I don’t think Cam Newton is very accurate.  I think he might have gotten lucky at late with some passes that were just beautifully thrown with poor foot work.  I think the Denver Broncos can get him into a lot of those situations because of their pass rush.  Carolina was 24th in completion % despite not playing any defenses that were very good at coverage and the Broncos rank 5th.  So how are we getting 6 points with a defense that is this good, and nothing like the Panthers have ever seen this season? 

Lastly, I’ll mention special teams because you often see it play such a huge factor in the Super Bowl.  Some will never take a team with the worse special teams in a match up, but according to football outsiders the Denver Broncos are 14th in special teams efficiency compared to the Panthers at 23rd.  

**PROP PLAYS**

Danny Trevathan - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles - Must Play

Take Over 7.5 -130 1.3* play to win 1

I really like Trevathan, who was one of the only guys that showed up in the Broncos last Super Bowl.  Trevathan had 12 combined tackles in that game.  I think the way the Panthers play fits right into Trevathan’s strengths here and I expect him to be all over the field especially since the Panthers like to run the ball a lot.

Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must Play

Under 5.5 yards -130 – 1.3* play to win 1

In just 4 games this year did Cam Newton have a rush over 5.5 yards as his first rush of the game.  He now faces the Denver Broncos the best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, and they are 3rd in explosive runs allowed.

Panthers vs Broncos: Will Either Team Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game2016-02-07 18:30

No -120 1.2* PLAY 

Neither of these two teams move quickly.  They take a lot of time off per each drive.  Denver is also 5th in points allowed in the first quarter.  The first quarter is the lowest scoring quarter in Super Bowl History by a big margin which makes sense.  Most teams start by trying to feel each other out.

Vernon Davis Over 5.5 Receiving Yards +120 2* play

Vernon Davis returns to the 49ers Stadium for the Super Bowl.  He has gotten 0 targets over the last 4 games and Owen Daniels caught 2 TD’s in the last one, but I certainly feel Vernon Davis could be the X factor here.  I like everything I have read about Davis in terms of what he is saying to the media.  There have been stories that he has struggled to pick up the offense, but with 2 weeks to prepare Peyton Manning would be stupid not to get him into certain plays and the Panthers have shown vulnerabilities down field against teams like Seattle.  I really like what I’m hearing from Davis and this is great value. Davis has said this week in the media, “I’m back in Santa Clara where I grew up from a little boy to a man,” Davis said this week of his NFL upbringing with the 49ers. “I’m back here. My house is 12 minutes away. It’s been a great experience and I look forward to the rest.”

Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary. 

I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* playWhen you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense. 

Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite.

 CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%. 

Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game.

Panthers -3 5.5* NFL pod

Panthers -2 5.5* NFL POD

I am going with the Panthers in this spot for various reasons.  First of all it's good to note that I have probably faded the Panthers more times this season only to be proven wrong.  I did the same thing with Cam Newton when he was at Auburn only to come back and bet Auburn big late in that season to dominating wins.  I think I have learned my lesson and the value is extraordinary here with the Panthers.  I don't know any other situation where you'd have a 15-1 team going against an 11-6 team as an under dog.  I get they are 2 point favorites, but in everyone's eyes the Panthers are under dogs here today.  They have a lot to prove, and that same message is clear from Panther players this week in the media.

They still have to play the game and while I'm not a huge fan of betting a team that won in the regular season, but the Panthers certainly gained a ton of confidence in Seattle when they had their 4th quarter come back off back to back 80 yard TD drives to win the game.  TD drives is the key here, because Carolina is one of the best in the red zone at 72% TD rate at home.  The other thing to note is Cam Newton threw 2 INT's in that game, and Seattle had Jimmy Graham who caught 8 receptions for 140 yards and they still lost.  No Jimmy Graham this time, and the running game of Seattle is struggling so it's going to be on the shoulders of Russell Wilson.  Let's also not discount the travel that Seattle has had to under take this last week going out to Minnesota, back to Seattle, and now back to Carolina to play a 1pm game.

You could make an argument that Seattle has the better defense, but I would hesitate to agree.  When you look at what they did down the stretch hey held Minnesota to 7 and 10 points, Baltimore without Flaco to 6, Cleveland to 13, and Arizona who had zero incentive to play to 6 points, and they gave up 23 points to the Rams offense at home in a loss.  I think Seattle's defense is very good, but they haven't really faced many top offenses.  They faced Arizona/Pittsburgh the two top YPP offenses and both scored over 30 points on them when it mattered. The Bengals were 9th and put up 27 on Seattle, and Carolina is 12th and put up 27 on the Seahawks.  So the Seahawks defense played only 5 games against top 12 offenses in the league and when you take out Arizona in week 17 because they were seriously not interested in showing anything, they allowed an average of 30.75 points per game.

Carolina's defense faced the following top 12 offenses: New Orleans - 22 points allowed, Tampa 23, Seattle 23, Washington 16, New Orleans 38, Atlanta 0, Giants 35, Atlanta 20, Tampa 10.  To summarize they faced 9 teams in the top 12 in yards per play offense and allowed 20.78 points per game.  The Panthers gave up some big numbers late and I feel those were due to injuries.  I expect this team to be a lot healthier and it also pays to play at home where they are #1 in yards per point.

I expect this game to be close in the first half with low scoring, but we have seen these defenses loosen up quite a bit in the 4th quarter of games.  I would expect if this game is close at the half for the total to go over in the second half.  Also something to look at as you feel this game out. 

Patriots -4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I really like the Pats here in this spot given the fact that they are off the bye, getting healthier and off 2 straight losses.  The Patriots will return some key guys for this one including LT Volmer who protects Brady’s blind side.  I also think this team will be coached up to handle the Chiefs blitz schemes and will have a good game plan to move the ball and put points on the board.

For the Chiefs they come in red hot, and off a 30-0 victory last week.  Very impressive we cashed with the Chiefs as well but 8 of their 11 wins during this streak have been against the bottom teams in the league.  The 3 wins were against teams that were arguably not at their best.  Texans win was very easy to see when we saw Hoyer turning the ball over so many times.  The Patriots have just 14 turnovers on the year the fewest among any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs heavily rely on winning the turnover margin and are 0-4 ATS when they don’t this year.

KC also beat Pittsburgh, but they beat them with Landry Jones at QB the 3rd string QB.  They then also beat the Broncos, but again the Broncos had Osweiler making his first start in that game.  Winning 11 games straight in the NFL is not easy by any stretch, but KC certainly had a lot of luck along the way.  They also are more banged up here with 2 offensive lineman being out, and Jeremy Maclin being questionable.  Maclin is their only deep threat, and with Kelce the only other threat in the passing game will make it very difficult for the Chiefs to move the ball.  I’d be shocked if they got to 20 points, and I see the Patriots scoring 24-31 here.  Also worth noting is what happened last year when these two met in KC where the Chiefs blew the Patriots out and everyone was saying the Patriots were done.  I’m sure somehow that is motivating to someone with the Patriots and it will show up tomorrow. 

Cardinals -1 with Broncos -1 4.4* teaser+

Let’s start with Arizona over Green Bay. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals are the better team, but the Pack just came off an impressive win on the road over the Redskins.  I don’t see it happening again this week.  In order for this offense to have success hey must run the ball, and I can’t see them doing against the front 7 of the Cardinals which is a top 10 run defense unit allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The Redskins were ranked 30th against the run and it was a clear issue.

I also don’t believe much has changed for the two teams since they last met and the Cardinals are actually a little healthier.  Cards have been waiting on this game and I just think they are the better overall team.

Denver Broncos –

To me I saw that Peyton Manning is very close to 100% with the foot.  He was able to take snaps under center and hand the ball off.  Manning didn’t play for weeks and now he’s ready to go in the playoffs.  I think that’s perfect, because the last few seasons he was fighting injuries in the playoffs and now he’s actually fresh.  For the Steelers Antonio Brown is ruled out, and they do have other weapons, but I’m not sure Big Ben can throw down the field if he plays the entire game.  His arm is not near 100%, and I think the Broncos actually knock him out of this game.  The Broncos defense is the best in the league and they are at home with the extra week of rest.  The road teams won last week, but I’m betting that the home teams are victorious this week.

Clemson +7 5.5* NCAAF POD

The game between Michigan State and Alabama very well could have been 10-7 or even 0-0 at the half, but everything went Alabamas way at the end of the half with the interception with Michigan State trying to go in with an interception.  That was a huge momentum change in this game with Alabama taking the ball to start the second half.

They give up the TD to start the second half and go down 17-0, I think they came out with the running game was a little stupid for the Spartans offense that had so much success on their last drive before the half before throwing an interception. I thought at that point they needed to hand it over to cook and go no huddle, because it allowed Alabamas front to have issues and they had success moving the ball.  But they were not agressive enough and the game got further away and it almost seemed like Michigan State was beaten in the first 5 minutes of the third quarter.  During the game there are a few things I noted and compared with Clemson as reasons why I feel completely comfortable backing Clemson in this game.

Michigan State receivers also had many drops. I like the fact that Deshaun Watson can spread the ball around more to his receivers finding the weakness in the defense, and he’ll have more balance with the running game that should keep Alabama’s defense on edge.

Michigan State’s special teams.  Nearly every game Alabama has made a play in their special teams to change the game, and again it happened in the third quarter against the Spartans on a punt return TD.  Michigan State had one of the worst STE in the country at 108th,  Clemson is at 89th not much better, but I don’t see Alabama again making those type of plays against Clemson.  Clemson is very poor in kick off return coverage allowing 2 TD’s on the season, but that’s not at all where Alabama excels.  In fact Alabama has only averaged 18.94 yards per kick off return.  Alabama has 5 TD’s on punt returns this year and that’s where the danger is, but enter Clemson’s punt return coverage which is very good only allowing 15 returns on the season for 85 yards where Michigan State allowed well over 250 yards and 2 TD’s with an average of 12.81.  I think Clemson can eliminate the special teams game for Alabama although they may sacrifice some field position.

Michigan State found a weakness.Before the half Michigan State picked up the pace and let Connor Cook run the offense and it did not allow Alabama to substitute along their defensive line which is the reason they are so strong.  Depth is probably Alabama’s biggest strength.  Michigan State is not used to moving fast and of course they did not make that adjustment in the second half of this game.  Clemson however will likely use that in my opinion and it will come a lot more natural to them with the 13th ranked pace in the country (Michigan State is 70th).  With that fact comes time of possession and Michigan State defense was on the field way too much.  I think Clemson will have an easier time despite being 13th in pace they are actually 23rd in ball control with 32:23 minutes of TOP, but 34:58 over their last 3 games.  Alabama is 4th and this could be what decides this game overall, but I don’t see it being lopsided like it was in the Cotton Bowl.

Michigan States offensive line struggled against a 4 man rush.  Is Clemson’s offense line better or just as good?  Well let’s look at the numbers.  Clemson’s offensive line is ranked 8th in sack rate at 3.06% which is extremely impressive.  Most systems with mobile QB’s have a very high sack rate, but they are top 10 in the country (Alabama is 42nd), Michigan State was 32nd.  Clemson is also ranked very high in adjusted line yards at #9, 12th on standard downs, 27th on passing downs, 5th in power success and so on.  To put those numbers in perspective Michigan State ranks 49th in adjusted line yards, 93rd on standard down, 65th on passing downs, and 14th in power success.  Overall I would say this is the best offensive line Alabama’s defensive line has had to face from a numbers perspective and vice versa.

Can Clemson stop the run like Michigan State? Spartans stopped the run of Henry holding him to under 100 yards just as I predicted, but Coker just ripped them up going 25-30 against the man defense.  Clemson can absolutely do the same thing in the running game.  Clemson was impressive in the game against Oklahoma despite losing their best DE in Shaq Lawson who I expect to play on Monday.  Even if he doesn’t Clemson’s line held up well against Oklahoma who was a top 20 rushing offense.  Clemson is ranked 25th in rushing defense, 13th in rushing S&P+ and has faced many top rushing programs including 6 in the top 30 (3 in the top 15).  Florida State is the only team that got close to their season average and they did so on 1 long play from a more explosive RB in Cook.  Clemson absolutely should be able to force this into a game where Coker beats them.

Is Clemson secondary more talented? Do they give up the big plays like Michigan State struggled with.  This could be the biggest question that decides this game, because Michigan State was very highly regarded, but their secondary obviously was not as good this year.  Clemson ranks 2nd overall in completion % (Mich State 85th), 7th in opposing QB passer rating (Michigan State 68th), 15th in passing yards allowed per attempt (Michigan State 77th).  Clemson has some big safeties and can spend a lot of time in the nickel without the threat of giving up big running plays due to the size of their safeties Jayron Kearse is 6’4 and 210lbs and Travis Blanks is a hybrid LB that is probably the X factor here who can cover Alabama’s TE.  There is a reason why Clemson was #1 in opponent third down conversion % on the year.

Can Clemson have a better day rushing the passer? There were times in the game where Michigan State was just a half second too slow.  That may be where the difference of 4 star athletes will come in to play.  Clemson has the 3rd ranked sack rate unit right behind Alabama.  They sacked Oklahoma on 10.42% of their drop backs, and Alabama is 42nd in protecting their QB an obvious risk for them if they are going to come out throwing the ball.  Overall I have complete faith in Brent Venables as a defensive coordinator getting Clemson into the right situations.  He’s been doing this a long long time where Michigan State has two co-defensive coordinators something I would not like.

Coker got way too comfortable against Michigan State and I don’t see that happening here against Clemson who have better athletes and a better secondary to frustrate this offense.

What did I notice from Clemson’s game?  Clemson clearly has a better running offense with the added dynamic of Watson, as their RB is very under rated running the option Watson and RB Wayne Gallman have both rushed for more than 1,000 yards.  However, Watson is the best player on the field and the best QB Alabama has faced.  Alabama’s defense has recruited to stop this type of QB, but they haven’t really seen anyone quite like Watson.  Watson has really impressed me on the field and off the field and I think he’s just as good of a thrower.  He’s made the occasional mistake including the dumb throw before the half against Oklahoma, but in big games this year his team has taken care of the ball.  Notre Dame, Florida State, UNC, and Oklahoma they are +7 in TO margin and +1 or more in each of those games.  Clemson can be positive in this next game and they will be national champions. Watson also just as good throwing the ball if not better than Cook.

Clemson just seems like a team of destiny to me.  Although it will not be easy.  I think this is a close game no matter how you look at it. Clemson really could have named their score against Oklahoma.  They had arguably the more impressive game against a better opponent.  However, they still feel like they are being disrespected.  This game is and should be a hell of a game, but my money is on Clemson to shock the nation.

NOTE: If you can’t get this at +7 wait and monitor the line movements.  Public money should push this back up to 7 at some point over the weekend or on Monday, but I would still be a buyer at +6.5.

Redskins -108 5.5* NFL POD

There is not one game in the recent future that makes me feel comfortable backing the Packers here today.  Most of the public action will be on the Packers here today because of Aaron Rodgers, but there is just something that isn’t right about him.  This team scored a combined 21 points in their last 2 games to close out the season and a good Packers team does not lose a meaningful home game at the end of the season.  In fact the Packers lost games down the stretch to each of their division opponents. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 29th in the league in yards per play offense.  That’s a shocking stat I don’t think many would anticipate and they are averaging 3.9 yards per play over their last 3 games combined.

The Redskins on the other hand are 10th in the league in yards per play and have many more offensive weapons for Kirk Cousins to throw to.  They are also averaging 6.7 over their last 3 combined.  Washington 7th in protecting their QB while the Packers are 24th and are allowing Rodgers to be sacked 12.5% of his drop backs.  Part of it is his offensive line and the other part is nobody is open.  At the end of the day I trust the Redskins to move the ball better and control this game especially at home.  DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and even Jamison Crowder are some real weapons that will be the difference in this game.

Washington at home this year allowing 31.25% TD percentage in the red zone which should be a major challenge for the Packers who are coming into this game 18th overall in red zone TD%, and over their last 3 have been successful 18.18% of the time.  Washington on the other hand comes in at 61.22% and 68% at home.  Turnovers are another key and Washington does not turn the ball over at home.  In fact Cousins has 16 TD’s to 2 Interceptions.  Today will be a challenge for Cousins going up against a top 10  pass defense, but I think he can score enough points to win this game. 

Vikings +10.5  & U46.5 3.3* Teaser

We will have extreme cold conditions on Sunday in this rematch of early December.  Usually you’d like the revenge factor with the Vikings losing 38-7 last time out and the reason I like this game to be a lot closer is the fact that the Vikings are healthy on defense returning 3 starters for this game.  Mike Zimmer also one of the top defensive minds in the game will have a better game plan for Wilson and company here in the cold temperatures they are expected to be facing.

These are two teams ranked in the top 5 in third down defense, and red zone defense.  Two offenses that are of the slower in the league in pace and both are in the top 10 in giveaways per game.  They just don’t turn the ball over so this game is going to be something that’s played very conservatively.  For the Seahawks I expect a little bit of a slow start playing at 10AM which is going to keep the Vikings in this game late.

Bengals +120 4* NFL POD

This is a risky move playing the Bengals today given this coaching staff has been around forever and they still can’t win a playoff game, but maybe it helps that they are facing an opponent they are very familiar with in their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in with way too much hype, and have been out gained in 3 of their last 4 games.  I’m taking the home dog here, with the better running game and defense.  The Steelers now on their 3rd RB with DeAngelo Williams declared out for this game, and I think that falls into the advantage of the Bengals who will give up yards on the ground.  Cinci has held Big Ben under 300 yards passing in both games, and are going to make it extremely difficult for him to score.

The Bengals offensively are guided by A.J. McCarron today with Dalton being declared out, and it’s funny because McCarron is getting absolutely no respect, and I think I’d want to back a guy like this who has done nothing but win in his career.  Granted he played with Alabama, but he has the more talented team surrounding him here today and I think he plays smart football giving the Bengals a win.  The Bengals are actually better in the red zone 5th in fact in TD%, while the Steelers are 10th and the Bengals are 5th in defense, and are only allowing 33.3% TD’s in the red zone at home while the Steelers are allowing 55.56% on the road. 

That would mean this game comes down to the Big plays.  If the Bengals can eliminate them they should win this game.  The Steelers are 5th in Big play % and ironically 47 have been from running while 43 are in the passing game.  The Bengals are 2nd in big plays allowed in the running game, and 2nd in opponent big play passing games.  Another thing people don’t typically take a look at is special teams and the Bengals are much better in that department than the Steelers.

Detroit Lions -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Lions have very quietly played the best football down the stretch going 5-2, and completely turning their season around after a 1-7 start.  Matthew Stafford has been extremely impressive with a 16 to 2 TD/INT ratio since the Lions fired Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator.  Sometimes you see these moves that make absolutely no difference, but it was clear the offense was not responding to Lombardi.  Even at 5-2 the Lions should have been 7-0 when you consider how they lost those two games.  A hail mary by Rodgers, and I thought they had out played the Rams earlier this month as well.

The Lions also likely playing for their head coach here.  Jim Caldwell on the hot seat where John Fox is not and I think that’s a huge difference in this match up that gives the Lions the edge.  One of the leaders in the Lions locker room made it very obvious that the Lions players want Caldwell back.  Calvin Johnson is arguably the biggest name on the Lions and I expect that when he comes out and says something in the public that it’s pretty much the majority feeling of the team.  Johnson stating – “Love him.  Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect.. Guys gravitate towards him.”

The Lions are just playing better right now, and the Bears do not own a home field advantage going 8-22-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 1-6 at home this season

Florida +4.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

This game is all about perception and the wrong team is favored here.  Florida is playing in their home state in Orlando, and to me has all the advantages in a match up between two teams that mirror each other in a lot of ways.  Both teams have excellent 1st year head coaches.  Both teams have run first mentalities backed by superior defenses.  On paper it appears Florida has the better defense and Michigan the better offense.  Florida really struggled down the stretch and were ripped apart by the media, but they got healthier for the SEC Championship and hung with Alabama, while Michigan wasn’t even close against Ohio State exposing a lot of weaknesses in the Michigan defense.

On paper both of these teams need to run the ball, and I think Florida will have a better opportunity here considering they have a mobile QB that can run the option in Treon Harris.  This is a big step up in competition for Jake Rudock.  In wins this year Michigan has averaged 4.57 yards per carry and in loses 2.24.  Same goes for Florida with 3.74 and 2.15 in losses.  The same goes on the defensive side of the ball for both teams.  Michigan in wins held opponents to 3.21 ypc and 4.47 in their losses while Florida came in 2.91 ypc allowed in wins, and 4.64 in their losses which I have to mention were against the 3 best running backs in football in Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette (both should have been Heisman candidates), and the Heisman winner Derrick Henry.  Michigan does not have a guy like this and truly lacks any kind of explosive players.  So much so that they had to bring defensive players on this side of the ball in Jabrill Peppers.

Strength of schedule factors in here for both sides of the ball because Michigan is some what of a fake strong defense having faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play and they gave up 41 and 42 to them while Florida faced 6 top 50 offenses and allowed 19.5 ppg.  Florida truly has the most complete defense here.  Their pass defense is clearly better with Vernon Hargreaves back there, and the 4th ranked sack % unit, but the run defense is what I’m impressed with as they faced 8 top 50 units and still finished as one of the best in the nation where Michigan’s defense faced just 3 in the top 50.

Okay, so Michigan’s offense looks better on paper, and especially their running game, but have a look here as Florida faced 9 top 50 run defenses and averaged 22ppg against those.  While Michigan faced only 7 and averaged 21 ppg against those.  Florida had the better game against a similar strength of opponent in their last game as Florida gave Alabama a fight, but Michigan was dominated by their rival Ohio State.  I also don’t trust the team that’s more rusty here and although I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbough this team is not ready to be a 4.5 point favorite against a defense like Florida. 

Clemson +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

When is the last time you saw a #1 team getting 4 points like this on a neutral field.  Oklahoma got a lot of credit down the stretch, and a lot of people are saying Clemson has not played anyone and again are getting zero respect which plays right into the hands of Dabo Sweeney's motivation tactics.  What else does this team have to do?  They beat Oklahoma in last year's bowl game with Deshaun Watson, beat Ohio State the year before and LSU the year before.  Oklahoma has come up small in big games for quite a while going 2-5 in their last 7 BCS bowl games and 0-3 in national championships.  It's also worth noting that Oklahoma faced the tough part of their schedule with a lot of luck.  What I mean by that is they did not have to go up against the starting QB of any of the final 4 teams in Iowa State (almost lost), Baylor, TCU (almost lost), and Oklahoma State.  This is also the team that got extremely lucky early in the season to beat Tennessee.  I'm just not buying them as a 4 point favorite here and let's look at some more facts.

Clemson is by far the best defense that Oklahoma has faced, they also have the best QB they have faced all year.  When you consider Oklahoma struggled when they did face mobile QB's.  They were lucky and missed a few good ones, but they faced Texas Heard who rushed for 115 rushing yards when the two faced off.  Watson is far superior as poses a passing threat with a canon of an arm.  Watson only got better as the season went along.  The issue Oklahoma is going to have in this game and probably the reason I like them the most is Clemson's front 7 havoc rate.  Clemson is 3rd in sack% and Oklahoma is 104th in sacked %.   Baker Mayfield is used to running for his life but not against this caliber of a secondary that held opponents to 46.1 completion percentage and picked off opponents 14 times.  Clemson had a net of 49 tackles for loss while Oklahoma came in at +5, but allowed 80 tackles for loss.  A huge reason why they only converted 44% of their third downs.  Clemson has held opponents to 24.87% conversions on third downs.

If you were initially liking Oklahoma and you still are not sold, because of the suspensions announced today.  Deon Cain was not a huge part of this offense.  He had 11% of the receptions and another player will step up.  What makes Watson so good is he is able to spread the ball around which makes this Oklahoma's most difficult assignment.  I think Oklahoma also the more rustier team having not played in a championship game and I think that may be the reason they struggle in these late bowl games.  Clemson also had some turnover issues -2 on the season while Oklahoma is at +10, but what really impressed me is they were positive in their three biggest games.  When Clemson played Notre Dame they were +3, Florida State +2, and North Carolina +1.  Turnovers were not an issue when Clemson knew they had to be at their best.  I'll back Clemson here and I hope I have given you plenty of confidence to do so as well!

NC State +6.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

NC State has to be playing this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder.  This is a very well coached team under Dave Doeren.  Ironically they face off an SEC team they have a lot in common with.  Both are nearly identical in pace, and yards per play on offense and defense.  They both played identical games against their common opponent Troy and had very easy non-conference schedules.  They both feature a senior QB with experience that does not turn the ball over.  I did not want to make the assumption a lot of people do with the SEC over an ACC or other conference so I went back to look at recent history.

Recent history suggests the value is considerably on NC State’s side when you consider these two teams are on the same level in their respective conferences, lost to teams they were supposed to and beat the teams they were supposed to.  THE SEC is actually 7-9 since losing the national championship to the ACC in 2014 against the ACC.  This year they went just 4-3, and what is shocking is how well the ACC played against some of the top tier teams.  For instance Syracuse covered a large spread with ease over LSU, Kentucky lost by 14 to Louisville (both on the same level), Florida got blown out by Florida State (again on the same level), South Carolina nearly upset Clemson, but other than that the ACC played much better than the SEC for the second year in a row.

I don’t think much separates these two teams and it should be the little things that matter.  I’ve never been a big fan of Nick Mullen he’s 3-2 in bowl games, but has lost the last two against power 5 conferences.  He lost to the ACC’s Georgia Tech by 14 as a 6 point favorite last year, and lost by 14 as a +1.5 point dog in 2013 to Northwestern.  These teams are fairly similar in all statistical categories the major differences are Miss State’s not as balanced they throw the ball more than nearly everyone in the country while NC State is more balanced.  I think it’s important to note the strength of NC State’s front line as they rank 18th in sack %, while Miss State ranks 82nd, and 72nd in protection.  So that’s another key here, but turnover margin will likely decide this game and Miss State was -5, while NC State was +10 as they only had 11 turnovers on the season.  Miss State really struggled with the running game, and with that they fumbled a lot.  I trust Dave Doeren will have his team motivated and ready to play in their home state as he improves to 3-0 in bowl games.

Baylor +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This has extreme value in my book for many reasons.  Baylor’s experienced defense will be the difference in this game in my opinion.  Especially since they will be without their top running back, and receiver, but do get their third string QB back in Chris Johnson.  I really don’t feel like Johnson got a real opportunity to showcase his talent, and I think that is a huge reason we are getting value here.  Johnson is an athletic freak that I think will really hurt this North Carolina defense that gave up over 600 yards to Clemson.  Baylor is also a run first team and has been the last few years so I don’t think these injuries impact them as much as the line movement suggests.

All the public really remembers is this team struggling down the stretch, but they won many games with this defense and are ranked 30th in yards per play.  North Carolina’s offense has only faced 2 top 40 unit in yards per play defense, and just 1 team in top 40 yards per play offense, but in this bowl game they will face a team that is top 30 in both.  Gene Chizik is getting all kinds of credit for improving a defense that gave up 16.4 points per game more in 2014, but the fact of the matter is strength of schedule.  In 2014, North Carolina played a whopping total of 8 teams in the top 50 in offense, and this year they played just 2 with a lot of bad offenses along the way.

The last thing I will mention is the fact that these two conferences are pretty even.  The Big 12 is 12-11 vs. the ACC in bowl games with an average differential of 0.3 ppg.  I believe the ACC defenses have made this UNC offense look better than they really are.  The ACC is 1-3 ATS in bowl games in 2015, and featured 3 of the better defenses in the conference in Duke, Pitt, and Virginia Tech and all 3 gave up a ton of points 41, 44, and 52.  North Carolina had huge issues at the end of the year stopping the run allowing 300+ yards in their last 2 games and I think that’s the strategy Baylor takes in this game as the defense also steps up.  This is an experienced unit that returned 9 of 11 starters.

Browns +11.5 5.5* NFL POD

1-7 ATS their last 8, Chiefs 7-1 ATS their last 8, but I’m going to back the Browns here.  Manziel looked good against Seattle despite his team losing 30-13.  This is the second week in a row that the Browns are double digit dogs, and the second week in a row that the Chiefs are double digit favorites.  The Chiefs were 10.5 point favorites against San Diego and nearly got taken to OT as their offense scored just 10 points.  This is a conservative coaching staff and again will be in a MUST win game and we should expect nothing more than a conservative approach.  I expect the Browns to play hard, and I don’t think they have mailed it in.  Manziel wants to prove something down the stretch, and I think this is far too many points not to get excited about. 

Nebraska +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I’m not sure UCLA can get up for playing a team that’s 5-7.  Nebraska however, had 5 losses by 5 points or fewer.  Nebraska definitely has a lot of motivation in this game when you consider they are 1 of 3 teams with 5 wins. They also lost to UCLA the last two years, and this is a very different Nebraska team compared to the team UCLA played the last few years.  Nebraska will chuck the ball around the field, and they can stop the run.  Nebraska is 8th in the nation in stopping the run, and that’s an important factor in this game as UCLA will rely heavily on their running game.  They average over 200 yards per game in their 8 wins, but under 150 in their losses.  Nebraska has not allowed a single opponent over 200 yards rushing this season and just 3 over 150.  I’m expecting that stat to be a big reason why this is a close game and with nearly a TD to play with the value is on Nebraska.

I mentioned motivation for Nebraska who has several players quoting how great of an opportunity this game is.  Offensive lineman Ryne Reeves said, “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to show that we’re a better team than what our record says.”  I also love the fact that they lost twice to UCLA in recent memory and that their head coach Mike Riley beat Jim Mora when he was at Oregon State.

The biggest key in this game though is Tommy Armstrong.  Nebraska will lose if we get the very bad Tommy, but they can still cover this spread with him throwing a couple of picks, but I think what he will bring to the table is his mobility in this game.  Armstrong averages over 5 yards per carry when he is not sacked and the UCLA defense has had plenty of issues with the few mobile QB’s they have faced this year.  Jim Mora’s teams have had so many issues against athletic QB’s since he’s been here and Armstrong is arguably the best one he will face this year.  I think Armstrong will be the difference in this game, this team is better in the red zone because of him converting TD’s at a 71% clip compared to UCLA’s average 61%, they defend on third downs and in the red zone.  Nebraska’s biggest weakness is their pass defense, but they are more of a bend but don’t break unit, and against Josh Rosen I think they can force him into mistakes.  Nebraska is far better in special teams ranked 28th in efficiency to UCLA’s 71st, and their defense can create more negative plays.  I think the Pac 12 is down a bit this year, and there is not much that separates them from the Big 10 when you look at head to heads this year I would say the Big 10 is the better conference.  Pac 12 went 2-3 this season vs. the Big 10, and were embarrassed in the national championship game last year as Oregon lost to Ohio State.  Their only wins were questionable with Washington State barely getting by Rutgers 37-34, and Michigan losing at Utah to open the season because of a ton of turnovers.  Otherwise Northwestern beat Stanford by 10 the PAC 12’s best team, and Michigan State handled Oregon while Michigan also handled Oregon State.

San Diego State -1.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

I’ll take the Aztecs in this game who do not have to travel nearly as far as Cincinnati for the Hawaii Bowl.  I also think the Bearcats programs is in shamble’s a bit, and having to travel to Hawaii with a young team is not going to help.  For San Diego State they have already made this trip this year and did so in great fashion.  I have been impressed by Rocky Long’s quotes the week they went to Hawaii and how he had his team prepared and I expect nothing different here.  It also does not hurt that this matchup is something I also love.

First of all both starting QB’s are out for this game, and Cinci who relies much more on their QB are going to have a very tough time against San Diego State’s defense that runs a unique 3-3-5 defense that I’m not sure Hayden Moore has seen much of.  Moore also will take a lot of chance and very prone to turning the ball over.  In fact Cinci is one of the worst teams in TO margin ranking 124th, while San Diego State come in ranked 1st overall.  It’s a huge advantage for San Diego State that will most likely show up in the game.  Cinci also going to have a hard time running the ball against Rocky Long’s bunch as they ranked 8th in run defense.  Cincinnati is 0-5 losing by an average margin of 14 when they don’t rush for over 150 yards.

So I mentioned earlier that Cinci is in shambles.  There are all kinds of rumors about Tuberville retiring, and their OC moving on to Kentucky.  Along with that is the fact that their starting QB Gunner Kiel, a 5 star leader on this team wont’ be traveling due to personal reasons that have been announced as a pain killer addiction.  Really sad story, but this team is 0-5 vs. the top 50 in the nation.  San Diego State, a team that will rely on the run heavily and won’t be hurt by the fact they will be without their QB as much.  Donnell Pumphrey, a dynamic back should be the MVP of this game or I’ll be shocked as the Bearcats have allowed over 5 yards per carry on the season.  I also like the fact that San Diego State is less penalized on the season, ranked 6th in special teams (Cinci – 74th), +22 in tackles for loss compared to -12, and +14 in sacks compared to -10 for the Bearcats.  This could be another blow out for the Hawaii Bowl. 

Georgia Southern +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is Georgia Southern’s first bowl game and while they have a tough task against Bowling Green’s up tempo high flying offense I think they have the right match up here.  Georgia Southern is the #1 rushing offense in the nation, and 10th in time of possession.  Bowling Green has struggled against all 4 top 50 rushing offenses they have faced giving up TD’s, and a lot of rushing yards while going 2-2 in those games.  I think there is a lot more for Georgia Southern to play for in their first bowl game.

Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year, but were held out of a bowl at 9-3 because it was their first year as an FBS team.  When you look at what this team has done over the last 3 years you should be pretty impressed.  In 2013 they beat the Florida Gators, in 2014, they lost to Georgia Tech and NC State by a combined 5 points, and as I mentioned won the Sun Belt.  This year they go 8-4, but crush the MAC’s own Western Michigan 43-17, and they lose in OT to Georgia.  They come off a loss to Georgia State and that’s why they are getting no respect in this game, but there is something to say about a triple option team and Georgia Southern runs it arguably better than anyone.  There is a good reason why this team did well in their first year in the Sun Belt, just like Navy did with their triple option in their first year in the AAC.

I don’t see Bowling Green being able to prepare for this triple option.  There is absolutely no history facing the triple option, and Bowling Green is without their head coach Dino Babers who head to Syracuse.  This team is not content with the MAC Championship, but I don’t see how well they will be prepared for the triple option especially when you consider their defensive coordinator will be the interim coach here and he too is going to Syracuse.  I guess I should have a bit more respect for a coach that sticks around for the kids, but I don’t see him giving it 100% in preparation.

There are a few other things to like about Georgia Southern as they are very opportunistic grabbing 15 interceptions, and they have a significant advantage in penalties nearly penalized 4 fewer times and special teams ranking 47th while Bowling Green ranks 119th in special teams efficiency.  Both teams are really good at what they do best which is offense.  Bowling Green is more balanced, but likes to do it more with the pass while Georgia Southern will run it down your throat and I feel like they can really take Bowling Green out of their rhythm here considering they dominated with over 33 minutes in time possession compared to under 30 for Bowling Green who ranked 92nd in TOP.

Giants +4 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Giants who need to win every game, the Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff bye and while they should be motivated to play for the undefeated season, but they are banged up a bit right now.  The Giants have 7 loses this year and 5 have been by 4 points or less and when you look at who the Panthers on the road it’s just 1 potential playoff team in the Seahawks so they have really had an easy run on the road and I see their perfect season coming to an end against the Giants on Sunday who are the perfect team to give them trouble.

L.A. Tech -1 5.5* NCAAF POD

There is no question that Tech comes out of the better conference in C-USA vs. the Sunbelt.  Conference USA was 4-1 in bowl games last year and 15-6 over the last 4 bowl seasons while the Sun Belt went 1-2 last year and 6-6 over the last 4 years.  There is no question Tech comes from the better conference that regularly plays more power 5 opponents (25 this season).  Tech also comes off two very ugly games where they did not come close to covering the spread, missing by 23 and 39 points.  The market has adjusted quite a bit for this show down in New Orleans.

Arkansas State ran the table in the Sun Belt and to me that just shows you how bad this conference has been which has led to some inflated numbers for Arkansas State who likes to run the ball 61% of the time with Gordon at RB, and Fredi Knighten at QB.  In wins they rush for a 5.65 yards per carry while losses they average just 2.41.  This team has played some pretty terrible run defenses along the way including 4 that rank at the bottom ranking 120th, 121st, 126th, and 127th.  Today they face LA Tech who is built to stop the run ranking 12th in the country led by future NFL DT – Vernon Butler.  In Arkansas State’s 3 games against run stopping units they lost, and LA Tech’s 13th ranking in yds per carry allowed should be enough to get the job done.

L.A. Tech also has an explosive offense that will key on not turning the ball over.  They lost big in their division championship against Southern Miss by turning the ball over 7 times.  That’s especially important against Arkansas State who has lived on the turnover.  If L.A. Tech protects the ball they win this game going away by double digits.  I’m betting they will when you consider 33% of their seasons 21 turnovers came in one game.  Jeff Driskel has been great all year, and Kenneth Dixon is one of the best RB’s in the country that nobody knows about with 83 career rushing TD’s.  This team is excited to be here and should win this game.

Jaguars -2.5 5.5* NFL POD

The Jaguars are 4-8, but I feel like they are the better team here right now.  They have not been as fortunate as the Colts this season, and the Colts again are having injury issues with their QB.  Matt Hasselback will make the start, but he’s banged up with the ribs.  The Jaguars got lit up in the 4th quarter in their last game, but that was to a mobile QB in Marcus Mariotta, this is a completely different situation here.  The Colts also could be peaking ahead to their showdown with the Texans next week who they are tied with in the division, but let’s not sleep on the Jaguars even at 4-8.  They get Atlanta at home next week, followed by road games at New Orleans and Houston and could very much be alive to a spot in the playoffs.

The Jaguars want a little revenge for their loss on the road against the Colts in OT where they clearly out played them in Indy.  Bortles had a good game without a turnover and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 105 yards, but they lost that game.  The Jaguars are the much healthier team right now, and just because Hasselback is 4-1 people are expecting that success to continue when in reality he could easily be 0-5 as he has been out gained in every single start.  I see nothing different here if nothing else it will be worse with Hassleback being limited or could get knocked out of this game with the first hit.

Army/Navy U50.5 4.4* POD

I really like the under here, because both teams know how to prepare for each others offenses.  Army has had some extra time here playing last on 11/21, while Navy played in the Championship game last week something they are not used to, but I don't anticipate it having an impact on this game.  I leaned towards Army, but this is Navy's best defense since 2009 from a yards per play perspective and rushing yards perspective  That was the year Army was held to 3 points in this match up.  This is actually Army's worst offense since 2010, but their defense has stepped up it's their best run defense since 2010.  I still think Navy can score wouldn't be surprised by a 31-7 final by any means which would get Navy the cover, but the fact remains both these teams love to hang onto the football, but both know how to defend each other's offense.  

All 3 service academies run the triple option, and all know how to defend it and it has resulted in the under 28-8-2 over the last 12 years when any of the 3 have played each other including 10-1-1 on the under in this game.  I expect similar things this year despite Navy having a better offense than in years past.  It's good to know that they had an extra week of playing and haven't had a bye since early October.  This offense only has 1 more yard per game than last years offense that Army held to 282 yards and 17 points.

Raiders +125 5.5* POD

The Chiefs are really banged up right now and going back on the road where they have found success of late in division play winning at Denver, and again at San Diego, but in reality they found both of those teams at the right time.  Denver had 3 of their better defenders injured in that game, and San Diego has been rattled with injuries all year long.  In this game it’s the Chiefs with the injuries to the offensive line, now their best defensive player Justin Houston which will dramatically change that pass rush.

The Chiefs have been playing well lately, and you have to give them credit, but they are forcing 14 turnovers over their last 5 games which have left this offense looking better than it really is.  Oakland is tied for 4th in fewest interceptions thrown per game so unless they start fumbling the ball they should be in good shape here.

Oakland at home is a huge advantage, and I like the way the QB is playing ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion percentage despite having literally no running game.  KC ranks 20th in 3rd down conversions, and are even worse on the road this year.  Oakland’s defense is going to get the brunt of the disrespect in this one, but they have been pretty good at home allowing just 32% conversions on third down which gives them a match up advantage here, and that has trickled into their red zone defense which is ranked 11th overall, but at home they are allowing just 45% TD’s.  KC who is known to have the better defense comes into this one ranked 29th allowing 64.52%, and 65% on the road.  Oakland also top 10 in the red zone TD% scoring 61% of the time and 64% at home which again says a lot considering this team does not have a running game.  KC ranks 21st at 51%. 

Southern Miss +8 5.5* NCAAF POD W/ +260 1* BONUS ON ML

 A lot of people are going to look at Western Kentucky, see what they did against Marshall (49-28 win), last year’s CUSA team, and see what Southern Miss has done the last few seasons (4 total wins last 3), and see their loss 10-31 on the road against Marshall and automatically assume big win here for Western Kentucky, but I think Southern Miss will shock a lot of people here.

First of all the conference stats don’t lie, and Southern Miss is better at stopping the run, running the ball, and pass defense.  Add in the fact that Southern Miss has faced the 2 most difficult Conference USA opponents (LA Tech, and Marshall) on the road while Western Kentucky played them at home, and it makes me really respect them more.  Shoot Western Kentucky even played Middle Tennessee at home, the last CUSA team with a winning record (there are only 5).

Both teams want to pass the ball here, but Southern Miss is much more balanced, and I see Western Kentucky giving up on the run early in this game.  Southern Miss allowing 3.27 yards per carry in conference play and has a couple of former power 5 recruits on the defensive line.  I mentioned early in the season how much I liked this team and Monken in his 3rd year coaching I knew it was going to be a good one and we have benefited along the way by backing this team.  They still aren’t getting any credit, because they are over shadowed by the sexy offense and sexy QB in Brandon Doughty.  I like Southern Miss Nick Mullens just as much here, and he’s been better on the road with 21 TD’s and 2 interceptions.  Speaking of turnovers, that’s how Western Kentucky’s defense gets by forcing 27, but Southern Miss has cleaned that up and is actually +6 in their last 3 games compared to Western Kentucky who is +1.

Looking into this further this is 1 of 3 solid defenses that Western Kentucky has faced from a pass defense perspective.  Vanderbilt (who they should have lost to) held them to 14 points and are ranked 58th in sack %, 26th in opposing QB rating, and 38th in yards per pass attempt.  LSU, 35th, 45th, and 24th.  Both of those defenses play in a better conference, but Southern Miss is right there with 41, 22nd, and 21st, and they can stop the run.  To put this in perspective in pass defense.  Western Kentucky is ranked 96th, 66th, and 63rd, and have allowed a conference QB rating of 117 compared to Southern Miss 100.  Keep in mind the home and away games in favor of Western Kentucky. 

Western Kentucky has played 3 teams in the top 35 in yards per play and are about to face their 4th.  Southern Miss truly is a balanced team when you look at the defense we talked about and the fact that they can run the ball 5.59 yards per carry in conference play with Ito Smith averaging over 7.  They are ranked 5th in yards per play in the nation.  Western Kentucky has faced La Tech 21st (at home) allowed 38 points, LSU 25th (road) 48, Indiana 34th (road) 38.  I’d put this Southern Miss offense as the best out of those 3.  When you take into consideration that they are a threat throwing and passing the ball.  LSU, is one dimensional, Indiana is one dimensional, and La Tech not as good as we saw last week.  I really like what Southern Miss did in two challenging non-conference games vs. Nebraska and Miss State and I think they will recapture the glory days of their Conference USA success.

South Carolina +17.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Never underestimate a team in a rivalry game.  We will see what the Gamecocks have left in 2015, this is their bowl game.  Clemson should already be looking at North Carolina, as South Carolina just lost to Citadel, but before that they beat Vanderbil 19-10,and lost to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee by a combined 20 points.  They have to cover 17.5 in their own building, and I think they can give Clemson quite the scare here.  I think South Carolina can put up some points here, and last week meant absolutely nothing to them, but it probably gave us a few more points to work with if nothing else.

I’m probably biased towards the SEC, but the ACC is far weaker, and South Carolina faced teams like LSU, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee meanwhile Clemson got games in the same category against Notre Dame, and Florida State.  South Carolina at home has had a very good defense, they have allowed just 3 passing TD’s to 8 interceptions.  They held North Carolina’s high flying offense in check. North Carolina is fairly similar and they held Marqise Williams to 9 yards rushing, and 1 TD and 3 interceptions. 

Clemson has also struggled on the road quite a bit winning by just 3 at Louisville, giving up 41 to NC State, losing by 10 to Syracuse, and most are expect an epic blowout, but Clemson really does not need that to enhance their resume they just need to simply win their final 2 games.  This is an in state rivalry game and we have seen South Carolina step up and play competitive games against good competition before.  I don’t quite see the value on the money line at +575

FRIDAY'S TEASER BONUS PLAY

Boise State -1.5 Teaser 5.5* MAX PLAY

This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense.  San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season.  Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008.

What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry.  The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn’t turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily.  San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference.  San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on.  I don’t see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it’s not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let’s take advantage of these factors and take Boise State.

Nebraska +8 Teaser

I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset.  A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa.  First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose.  They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it’s hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn’t give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape.

Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn’t been challenged.  They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa.  Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff.  Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game.  I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins.  If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game.  Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff.

Navy -3.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston.  I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward.  I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week.  The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week.  They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year.  The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds.

Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry.  Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th.  Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48.  Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame. 

Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week.  I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country.  Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of.

Looking at the conference stats between these two.  Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th.  Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers.  Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128.  Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9.  Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home.  Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts.  Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%.  4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate.  Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs.  I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage.  We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago.  Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history.  I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that.

DALLAS COWBOYS -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Cowboys play really well at home during Thanksgiving Day, this is a short week for Carolina, I’m tired of seeing this team win, and I finally think they meet their destiny.  This is probably first match up all season that they face an offensive line that’s better than their defensive line.  The return of Tony Romo is huge, I don’t doubt he’ll still be rusty, but the running game improved, the offense will stay on the field a lot more, and that will help the defense as it did last game.  Greg Hardy also should be fired up for this game, and I expect it to rub off on this defense as they will force the Panthers into a few turnovers.  The crazy thing is the Panthers have only been on the road 4 times this season in 10 games.  They don’t have a win on the road against a winning team.  The Jaguars have a losing record, the Bucs have a losing record, the Seahawks are 5-5, and the Titans have a losing record.  Yes I know the Cowboys don’t have a winning record either, but this is a team that’s in a must win the rest of the year.  The intensity is there they are health, and Carolina is coming over on a short week.

EAGLES +8.5 / BEARS +14.5 3.3* NFL Teaser

I will tease the early and late game here in what I feel is an excellent spot.  This is a buy low sell high situation in the Eagles vs. Detroit as the Lions are playing well all of a sudden, and the Eagles are coming off one of their worst games ever with all kinds of rumors swirling. I just don’t see this team getting beat by more than a TD if at all to the Lions who have been awful on Thanksgiving Day.  Too many distractions in the early game for the home team with nothing left to play for.  The Eagles just 1 game back in the NFC East.

For the Bears, they are one of the best coached teams in the league and once again I like the road team.  Green Bay off the big win but this is far too much credit they made Teddy Bridgewater beat them which was expected.  It was cold I predicted Green Bay would win that game, but they didn’t look great doing so.  Aaron Rodgers shoulder is not 100% which is a HUGE factor that nobody is talking about, and it’s not like this defense can stop the Bears pass or rushing and expect the other to take care of itself.  The Bears have the weapons and coaching to beat you with the run or the pass, and this is a division rival that likely will be decided by less than a TD, but I like the value we get with the line move to grab them over 2 TD’s

Falcons -3 -120 5.5* NFL POD

The Falcons off a bye week along with the Colts, but I think this is a very tough game for the Colts starting a 40 year old QB.  I like the value we are getting here with the Falcons considering they lost 5 in a row ATS leading up to their bye while the Colts have been winning ATS.  Falcons here look to go a little up tempo in this game if you ready into some of the articles I believe the Falcons will covers this spread and win, but I'm buying the 1/2 point to protect my investment.

USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd.  Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does.

Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close.  Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5.  USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective.  USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky.  They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship.  This game means much more to USC.  Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score.  That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line.  USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year.

I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team.  Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks.  3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame.  I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week.

Raiders -3 +100 5.5* NFL POD

The Vikings going out west, with a huge look ahead spot as they will host the Packers next week at home.  The Vikings have also covered 7 straight games, and asking them to cover an 8th might be a little too much here.  Earlier this season the Vikings went out west and lost to the 49ers 20-3.  Derek Carr has these Raiders playing like a playoff team, and I would not be shocked to see them get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team considering the weakness of the AFC after the top 3 teams.

Oakland’s defensive weaknesses are against the pass, and the Vikings rely on the run much more where the Raiders are ranked 7th.  This is a good match up for the Raiders at home.  Meanwhile the Vikings rank 6th in passing defense, but they haven’t really faced any elite QB’s and Carr isn’t there yet, but he definitely has a ton of weapons and this passing offense is ranked 4th in adjusted ratings.  The Vikings have faced the following passing offenses in adjusted opponent rankings – 27th, 27th, 32, 8th, 30th, 16th, 31st, 15th to put things in perspective.  Carr has proven he can play well against good defenses, and he’s proven he can win games himself, Teddy Bridgewater has not come close to proving that.

Missouri +6.5 5.5* POD  / Missouri +220 1* play

Last week I played on the Tigers at home against Miss State, and it didn’t look bad at the half 14-13, but they went on to struggle in the second half, couldn’t get off the field, but there was a positive that came out of the game.  The running game was excellent rushing for 200+ yards, and Missouri is 10-4-1 ATS following a performance like that in their last 15.  They are also 18-7 ATS following an ATS loss, they are 2-7 ATS on the season.  We could not be getting more value at the right time.  I also think this team will play inspired football considering they were getting ready to boycott this game, because of the racial injustice on their campus.  The President was fired and Missouri will have all their players and I think it’s pretty ironic they go up against BYU that is well known for their anti-gay policy in Prov which is part of their school code.  I don’t even know if any of the players know about that, but if Gary Pinkel is smart he brings it up.  Either way this team is going to be happy and inspired to get back on the field and not take anything for granted.  They also need wins here to get back to a bowl game. 

BYU on the other hand has issues on their offensive line and a couple of guys are questionable.  That’s a big problem against Missouri who is 14th in pass rush, BYU 81st in protecting their QB.  They are even worse on the road and this game will be played at the Chiefs football stadium Arrowhead.  Still a home game for Missouri that I expect them to win with their running game.  BYU is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the road 3.9 overall similar to Miss State.  BYU’s offense not nearly as good as Miss State, and they have an inexperienced QB that Missouri can force turnovers with.  I may play the money line here as well, but I really like the Tigers in this match up. 

Packers -2.5 5.5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

This is a classic situation where an NFL team got badly beat on prime time TV last week with the Broncos dominating the Packers.  Now they go on the road against a team that's undefeated and just won in OT on Monday.  If you have been following me you know I have been fading the Panthers and losing, and if they win again this week well I'll be okay with it, but I see the Packers getting all these headlines of can't win a big game and I think Aaron Rodgers will be ready for this.  The Panthers defense showed some weaknesses late in the game against the Colts that Rodgers can exploit for sure.  I also like the fact that the Panthers went to OT, and are on short rest here.  Their offense is not very good and very predictable at this point with no real WR threats.  Absolutely love the Packers here as it's my favorite play of the year! 

Maryland +11.5 5.5* play

I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State.  Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers.  Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here.

Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd.  Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense),  Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense).  The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry.  So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating),  West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th).  Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay.

Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries.  However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5.  Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play.  Take the Terrapins here with good value.

Missouri +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

The perception on the Missouri Tigers could not be any lower at the moment.  They scored 3, 6, and 3 points in their last 3 SEC games, but those were all against top 40 defenses and arguably 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Florida.  With that said Miss State still has a very good defense ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, but they haven't exactly had the toughest schedule.  The perception is that this team is as good as last year, but that simply is not true.  I also like the fact that Missouri is coming off the bye week which allows them to come up with a few schemes that should help the offense as we all know they need it.  Miss State really does not need to scheme as they feel good about themselves putting up 40+ points in each of their last 3 games.

Miss State is about to face the best defense they have faced all year.  The 40+ points in their last 3 is way inflated.  They have played Kentucky ranked in 90th in defense, Louisiana Tech and Troy.  Missouri is ranked 3rd in yards per play allowed, and they'll be at home.  MIss State struggled in their other 3 games vs. SEC opponents who also had bad defenses (exception LSU), putting up 17 against Auburn and Texas A&M.  We have an extremely low total here with Vegas expecting a low scoring game, and giving 8 points to the dog with the better defense I'll jump on board every time.

Miss

Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD

All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS.  Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road.  Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads.  Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game.  I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas  as they out gained Toledo by 200.  Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game.  They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won.  Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not.

Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight.  Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time.  Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries.  Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff.  Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road.  Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them.

Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play.  A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record.  They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards.  Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions.  Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game.  That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance.

Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better.  On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%.  Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game.

Colts +6 5.5* NFL POD

The Colts are 17-4 ATS following a loss with Andrew Luck at QB which is good enough for me with an over rated Panthers team.  Panthers are undefeated still, but rank 27th in total yards, and Cam Newton continues to throw the ball with some of the worst mechanics I have ever seen.  At some point he is just going to be unlucky.  I also think it's a difficult spot after a prime time win over the Eagles on Sunday night football last week and they will get Green Bay at home next week as a look ahead. I don't think the Colts have to do too much to cover this spread.  I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers defense, but they are going to go up against the best QB they have faced yet.

Steelers -1 5.5* NFL POD

Big Ben returns, but the Bengals are off the bye and looking unstoppable and continue to get a lot of respect in the betting market, but I'm not completely sold on this Bengals team.  The Steelers offense is extremely explosive and has really flown under the radar.  This is the first week they are completely healthy it seems.  In the beginning of the year the Steelers challenged the Patriots

Andy Dalton has a hard time against the Steelers, 79.2 QB rating in 8 career games and the Bengals are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings with the Steelers.  Red flag is the fact that the Bengals have not faced a top 10 rusher with the exception of Jamal Charles who averaged over 6 yards per carry and they rank 28th in yards per carry.  Pittsburgh 4th running the ball 4.7 yards per carry.  This is a perfect scenario for Big Ben come come back to with Laveon Bell running the ball Big Ben can operate with balance.  

Also Bengals defense on the road in the red zone not very good 83% red zone TD% allowed.  Pittsburgh's defense has played much better here at home allowing 40% and even held the high flying Cardinal offense to 13 points.  I love the fact that the Steelers are off a loss which gives us additional line value.  On the flip side the Steelers are very good in the red zone especially at home as you might expect with a balanced offense.  So are the Bengals, but I think they are very one dimensional on offense.  They have talented running backs, but rank 20th in yards per carry.

Temple +11 5.5* NCAAF POD

I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here.  There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won.  The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts.  The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule.  This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach.

Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses.  Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry.  Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers.

Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin.  Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB.  I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here.  It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense.  Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game.  I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late.  

Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game.  Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game.  This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog.  Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts.  Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th. 

Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West.  Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough.  Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day.  I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball.  First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road.

Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th.  Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall.  In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close.

San Diego State +5 -105 5.5* NCAAF POD

These teams are like looking into a mirror yet we get the home dog on national TV with 5 points to spare.  Rocky Long is probably one of the most under rated coaches in college football and this team has gotten better and better with each passing week.  Utah State is exceptional on defense, but lets be honest this line is inflated for their blow out win against Boise State last week where they were able to force 8 turnovers.  In fact the only games this team has won by more than 5 points have been games where they are +3, +2, and +7 in turnover margin.  San Diego State just does not turn the ball over and their QB Maxwell Smith has not thrown an interception in 5 games.

Both teams like to run first, and rely on their defenses to stop the run on the other side.  Both defenses are top 10 in run defenses and there is no significant advantage although San Diego State has the better running back in D.J. Pumphrey who is very very good and only getting better with 424 yards in his last 3 games.  San Diego State’s offensive line is starting to gel after breaking in 3 new OL, but they also got their best player back last week in guard Darrell Greene who was suspended for the first 6 games.

Rocky Long has his players more motivated than they would have been for this game after seeing Utah State beat Boise State.  Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are favored now to win their division.  Rocky Long is 18-7-1 ATS in his last 26 conference games, and they should have the overall advantage in special teams.  They also are far better in red zone defense as Utah State has allowed an alarming 68% TD% success rate.

Colts +10.5 5.5* NFL POD

Who have the Patriots played or beat so far? Their win at Buffalo was impressive, but they forced a ton of turnovers.  Not to say they can't do the same thing against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but this is an enormous price that Bovada is offering and I'm taking the Colts here with Andrew Luck's return.  At some point you get over the hump and you beat the team that has been dominating you and the Patriots never looked as good while the Colts never looked as bad and we have a double digit home dog here in prime time with Brady's so called "revenge" game on the Colts who brought the "deflate gate" to light.

I would think the Colts have just as much revenge here in this game, and I expect them to play their best game yet with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck.  The key for the Colts will be stopping the Patriots running game and getting ahead early.  The Patriots will score points as they always do this offense is just as good as last year, although they lost a key guy in Nate Solder off the offensive line.  The Patriots defense however is not the same.

Patriots only gave up 6 points to Dallas last week, but Dallas had 18 first downs to the Patriots 20 and that was without Romo and all of their offensive weapons.  The Steelers the first week of the season probably should have won as they put up 434 yards of offense, but again had key turnovers in the red zone, and Bills who started the game terrible were moving the ball on the Patriots offense with ease.  The losses or departures of Wolfork, Revis, and Browner have not shown their impact in the box score but going on the road for the second week in a row against a Colts team that I believe has been waiting and preparing themselves for this game will finally win.  Yes.. I believe the Colts will have a chance to win this game for a change.

Take USC +7 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love these type of situations.  USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically.  I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss.  The perception is this team has given up, but I just don’t see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC.  Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread.  It’s a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks.  I’ll give you one great example – Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech.  Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy.  Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point.  In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog.  In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points.  In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up.

UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY

UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team.  This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge.  I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan.

Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields.  This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State.  Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford.  With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for.  I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit.

When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss.  That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113.  This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins.  UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %.  UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats.  This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. 

Rangers +157 5* MLB POD

Oakland Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD

I love the Raiders in this spot coming off a bad loss on the road there is clearly line value with them.  Majority of the public are just assuming that the Broncos are the Broncos at 4-0, but the fact is they are very lucky to be 4-0, and the Broncos offense is a shell of what it once was meanwhile Oakland's offense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league with all of their young talent!  Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play with just .1 more than the 49ers.  Perception definitely does not tell you that and Oakland's offense ranks 12th.

The Broncos have dominated this series in the past, and their defense has played extremely well, but they have not played a top 15 offense yet so I think the pressure is really going to be on Peyton Manning to produce a come back win and I could easily see the Raiders winning the game outright they always seem to step up big in these situations and I don't think they are too far away from being a factor in the division.  A win here and there will be a lot to talk about.

Redskins +7.5 3.3* play

I like the Redskins right now they are playing great defense and this is far too many points even for the way the Falcons are playing right now.  The Falcons offense is great, but their defense has also struggled ranking 27st in yard per play.  The Redskins have been + yards in every one of their games so far despite their opponents having the most plays per game they rank 4th with 288 yards allowed per game and have also been really tough to score on in the red zone at 37.5% while Atlanta's red zone defense ranks 25th.  Falcons also looking ahead to their division rival game on Thursday against the Saints. 

Chiefs -3 / Bills +5 

Chiefs are not as bad as their record they played 3 hopeful Super Bowl contenders.  The Bears were extremely lucky to get a win last week and I just see them losing this game pretty handily to the Chiefs who will have some success offensively with Jamal Charles going up against a run defense that ranks 26th in run defense.  Chicago has some issues with injuries along their offensive line and that should lead to a lot of 3 and outs, and even mistakes by Jay Cutler.  Either way it does not look good for their defense today which will be on the field a ton.

On the flip side I like the coaching edge for the Bills, and I think the value is right.  People are over reacting to their struggles against the Giants last week.  I was on the Giants as our POD, but I think they are a better team than they showed.  Rex Ryan will have his defense this week going up against a rookie QB.  The Bills should force some turnovers and should win this game.

4.5* MLB POD

[b]Royals -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

The Astros are an extremely young team, one that relies too heavily on the HR ball.  They were lucky enough to play against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium the first game, a team and offense that did not seem to exist.  Yankee Stadium is #4 in HR factor, while the Royals Stadium is #25 so I would believe this is a bad match up for the Royals.  Yordana Ventura also does not give up a lot of HR's and he is the type of pitcher that dominates come playoff team with his 97mph fastball.  Ventura has actually been even better vs. RHB holding them to an OPS nearly 100 points and he will face 6 of the 9 hitters from the right side.  He's held this Astros team to a .621 OPS without any HR in 3 starts and 54 AB.  Houston is also 19-41 in their last 60 road starts and send McHugh to the mound. 

McHugh has done a great job, but has a 1.31 WHIP on the road with a 4.05 ERA.  He's backed by a bullpen that is very good, but on the road they are over a run higher than what the Royals bullpen has done at home.  All in all I just trust the experience of this Royals team over the youth and exciting Astros team that everyone is starting to buy into.  I think we have more value here on the Royals who have the better starting pitcher going.  Ventura not enjoying as good of a season, but has been very good down the stretch.

Giants +5 5.5* NFL POD; Giants +200 1* 

Giants could easily be 3-0 now as they have led nearly all 12 quarters but instead sit at 1-2 and have a ton of value here on extra rest.  This is a well coached team and Buffalo is off a huge divisional road win.  I honestly don't see the Bills as focused this week and they are getting well over a field goal so I really can't get excited for that and back the Bills.  I think the extra prep will do the Giants good and they always seem to be in the game and I see nothing changing this Sunday.

Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS

Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston.  Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville.  Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side.

Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma.  Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston.  Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston.

Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%.  Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year.  Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball.  Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note.  Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s.  Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs.  I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 5.5* POD

I am grabbing the value here on the Dolphins as their public perception right now is super low, but this is still a very good team.   They nearly lose at Washington to open the season, and then they come back to lose in their own state to the Jaguars who looked awful in week 1.  I told many that the Jaguars would be better this year and unfortunately I just didn't have the guts to take them in week 2 after week 1.  Either way this team goes back home where the defense can be dominating while the Bills go on the road and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 in Miami.  I think this is a challenging game after their 2 home games, and I don't expect them to be able to win.  

Rex Ryan and the Bills really sold out to beat Tom Brady, and I see a little bit of a hangover or let down spot here having to travel to Miami.  Still people are high on the Bills, because they gave the Patriots a bit of a fight at the end, but many predicted the Dolphins to be better in the off season.  I still think we have a better offense from Miami with a more experienced QB who is back at home, while the Bills and Dolphins defense are both very similar in overall talent although Buffalo didn't look it last week.  This is almost a must win for each of these teams, and I think the home team has a major advantage.

Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus

The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland.  First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league.  The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite.  I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart.

We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions.  Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning.  This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB.  Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run.  They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here.

Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters.  They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved.  They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts.  I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner.  Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help.  They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%).  Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall.  They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country.  They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers.  However, they are a MAC team.. 

The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road.  However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East.  Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West.  MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers.  Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago.

Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago.  I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points.  First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here.

I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past.  I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach.  The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015.  I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson.  Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries.  I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that. 

Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD

Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis.  I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week.  Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week.

Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's.  Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing.  Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs.  For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now.  They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards.  The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%.  I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters.  In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success.  This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%.

A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year.  Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game.  Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game.

Astros -169 4* MLB POD

Houston has been a dominant team at home all year going 51-25, while the Angels have been 32-43 on the road.  Houston has to keep pace with the Texas Rangers here, but this is more about the pitching match up for me.  Hector Santiago has really struggled the second half of the year and his surface stats (3.47 ERA) are much worse.  He's been even worse on the road hwere he's given up 15 ER over his last 3 in just 7.2 IP.  The guy has walked 22 guys in his last 7 starts spanning just 31 innings.  While he's had very good starts this season against the Astros allowing just 3 ERA, 2 of those 3 were early in the year and all 3 were at home.

Houston at home is killing lefties, and their starting pitcher tonight Lance Mccullers posts better numbers including 4 ER in 3 starts against the Angels this season while 2 of the 3 were on the road he gets to pitch at home tonight where he will be backed by a bullpen that's nearly 2 runs better in ERA in home and away splits.

Cleveland Browns +2 5.5* NFL POD

I am backing the Browns here at home, this line has moved about 5.5 points from where it should be and was before the season.  Both teams are predicted at 6 wins and the Browns should be 3 point home favorites.  However, oddsmakers know the public have short term memory and are only looking at the 31-10 loss at the Jets, and the Titans impressive domination of the Bucs on the road.

It's very difficult to win on the road in this league. It's very difficult to win with a rookie QB on the road in this league.  This week Marcus Mariotta and the Titans have to do both for the second week in a row against a defense that was ranked in the top 10 last year.  This is a step up in competition and if the Browns down't turn the ball over 5 times like they did a week ago we should see a win and a cover.  I also like Johnny Manziel with a full week of practice and reps with #1.  He actually did not look bad vs. the Jets, but unfortunately the Jets defensive line is nasty, and he should have much more time this week vs. the Titans. 

Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD 

Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value.  Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score.  So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high.  California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas!  We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home.  I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home.

Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions.  Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary.  San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs.

Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%.  This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet.  Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB.  Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago.  There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford).  Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best.

Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play

Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman.  This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1.  Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week.  Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs.  They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway.

This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one.  Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet.

Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino.  Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter.  Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster.  Given who they have played there are some really big red flags.  Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc.  Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense.  

Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL.  The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition.  We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches.  Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone.  Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball.  For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well!

Mariners -145 4* MLB POD

I will take the Mariners at this price with Weaver pitching on the road you really have to be excited as he's posted a 6.24 ERA this year with his diminishing raw stats and velocity you really can't back this pitcher.  Iwakuma has slowly been returning to form and only has 100 innings on the year because he had to come back from injury.  Iwakuma has 6 of 7 quality starts at home vs. the Angels and has held them to .604 OPS in 209 AB.  Iwakuma's stats have been down this year, but I believe it's mostly due to poor luck which I feel has started to change in recent starts that he's been impressive in.  

Falcons +3.5 4.4* NFL POD

The Eagles are getting 60% or more of the action here and I saw this line creep up to 3.5 and I grabbed it!  The Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first 3 games in the pre season, and have a ton of hype adding the pieces they did under Chip Kelly's offense.  The Eagles are highly bet by the public to open this season for good reason, but we can not ignore Matt Ryan's success at home and some of the changes the Falcons have made in the offseason.  I believe we are getting tremendous value here on the Falcons as a home dog.  I truly believe the Falcons can play and score right with the Eagles here tonight.  Ryan has a healthy offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, but the difference will be the defense. 

Dan Quinn takes over as the new head coach and they have added a lot of defensive minded coaches.  This will no longer be a soft Falcons defense under Quinn and DC Richard Smith, and Raheem Morris. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sam Bradford hurt before the game is over in this one.  I really did not understand why the Eagles let Nick Foles go, but Bradford is not really an upgrade here and Demarco Murray came off a career year behind the league's best offensive line.  Expect the Eagles to make the mistakes that allow the Falcons to win this game and set the tone for their 2015 season.

Rams +4.5-- 5.5* MAX NFL POD

I even like the Rams to win this game outright.  This is a very early start for the Seahawks along with it being week 1.  I think the Seahawks have a lot more issues going into this season than they have had in the past with turnover, and their offensive line.  This OL has had some major issues and that's not a good match up going into week #1 against the Rams who have arguably the best defensive line in the league featuring Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers. 

Of course the Rams are without Todd Gurley, but I expect them to find creative ways to score, and the secondary of the Seahawks may not be as good especially if Chancelor is not back for this one.  Either way I like the value I'm getting here on the Rams and head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league and they did beat the Seahawks here at home last year along with Denver.  They have plenty of talent at the skill positions to give the Seahawks a big scare and I will probably bet they do pull the upset to start the season.

Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason.  They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters.   They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season.  This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. 

This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them.  Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year.  Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good.  I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota.

Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry.  This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game.  I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

[b]Brewers +111 5* MLB POD[/b]

I'm going to take a shot with the Brewers here.  I really like the fact that they have hit well down the stretch - .298 average last 20 games, same as the Blue Jays.  They also have the better bullpen in this match up and have hit much better vs. RHP over their last 10 games it's a difference of nearly 4 runs per game.  Both teams face a RHP in this match up.

Koehler takes the mound for Miami and he's had a solid season on the surface, but he's been very lucky with strand % and hit %, and his raw stats suggest his ERA should be 4.5 or higher.  He's also had issues with the Brewers allowing 16 ER in 14.1 IP in his 3 career starts dating back to the 2014 season.

On the other hand the Brewers are giving Ariel Pena a shot.  Pena has a very live arm with solid velocity around 95mph with lots of movement.  He's proven he can strike guys out int he minors, but control has been his issue in the past.  I think we saw some recent starts by him this past year that suggest he's ready for the big leagues, and now he gets his opportunity and will be highly motivated facing a Marlins team whose offense is nothing to be afraid of. 

Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight.  Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players.  I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West.  Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions.  

Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise.  Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years.  Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen.  This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones.  To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas.  I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated.

Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously.  We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan.  We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here.  Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score.

Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game.  Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow.  Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this.  Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State.  Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams.  This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points.  They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was.  Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options.  Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. 

Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play.  First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think.  Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game.  Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here.  Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense.  I expect it to be a very low scoring game.  Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over.  Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving.  Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same.  The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that.

Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3.  Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State.  For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party.  It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense.  Bottom line... 

Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent.  Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6.  However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense.  

Reds +128 4* MLB POD

I will go with the Reds here tonight just on the pitching match up alone.  The Reds offense has exploded scoring 26 runs in their last 3 games and they will have another chance to do the same tonight going up against Dan Haren, who they have pretty good number against.  Haren is a fly ball pitchers which does not bode well for him going into tonight's game at Wrigley.  Haren, has also struggled of late and is coming off a 100 pitch effort.  He has to be feeling the pressure at this point and so are the Cubs having lost 5 of 6 as their offense has really let them down scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of those games.

Enter Anthony DeSclafani whose stats on the year do not do him justice.  He's improved in the second half and actually has been much better on the road posting a 2.60 ERA.  He's got 3 starts against the Cubs this year and has only given up 2 ER, but he's facing them with better skills this time around.  The bullpens are relatively the same although the Cubs bullpen has not been doing very well of late.  I look for the Reds to take game 2 as well and really start to make the Cub fans worry while San Francisco and Washington make a run. 

Diamondbacks +100 5.5* MLB POD

I am going to take the home team here which is challenging when you go up against the Cardinals who just keep winning and tonight they have a pitcher on the mound that has a 2.99 ERA, but Lackey has struggled down the stretch before.  He's already at 165 innings this year and he's been worse on the road posting a 4.40 ERA and he goes up against Patrick Corbin, an All Star in 2013 who has pretty damn good numbers especially at home with 23K's in 23 IP and a 1.13 WHIP.  Corbin is also a lefty which tends to give the Carindals issues the last few years.  They are 24th in OPS vs. LHP and they are scoring a run less in home away splits vs. LHP than the Diamondbacks are vs. RHP.  The Diamondbacks have a capable offense and I see them getting to Lackey early while Corbin won't go deep the Diamondbacks have an above average bullpen that has an ERA of 2.64 over their last 10 games. 

Royals -130 5* MLB POD

I like the Royals here although they have somewhat of an unknown on the mound in Kris Medlen he was one of the best starters in the National League for quite a while and now he's being thrown into a playoff race I think we see him at his best again down the stretch.  He will be limited in pitches, but that's not a bad thing with what the Royals have out of their bullpen posting a 2.25 ERA on the season at home.

This is every bit of a fade Ubaldo Jimenez play as the the Royals are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP with a .279 average and have been very consistent.  JImenez #'s are not nearly as good as what they show and he's struggled with just 4 quality starts out of 13 on the road where he carries a 1.54 WHIP.  I'm just not buying Jimenez here and I'll take the Royals who are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a home favorite.  

[b]Reds +135 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am going to take the Reds here at home they are certainly due for a win and the Diamondbacks are coming on the road with Rubby De La Rosa on just 4 days rest, and a 4.66 road ERA.  David Holmberg has not been much better with a 5.95 ERA, but I think he has not been as bad as that when you consider he gave up 7 ER in 1 of his starts which was against the LA Dodgers who are 7th in OPS vs. LHP and that start was also on the road.  Here Holmberg will have some extra rest and I feel confident about him being able to give 5 solid innings and turn it over to a bullpen that has a 1.34 ERA over their last 10 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are also 8-21 in their last 29 games as a road favorite. 

Marlins +139 4* MLB POD

There is no way I can pass up the value we have tonight with the Marlins taking on the Brewers.  First of all they will put a lefty on the mound and the Brewers are just not that great against lefties ranking 29th in OPS.  Adam Conley is young, but he has good velocity for a lefty and in his two starts he has had to face 2 top 10 offensive teams vs. LHP.  I think he will have an easier time facing the Brewers here despite being on the road. 

The Brewers will start RHP Tyler Cravy who is also young making his 5th career start.  He's really struggled and that has been against some of the worst hitting teams in the league having not faced a top 10 offensive team yet.  When we look at the bullpens and the offenses I think it's a wash, but Miami has played better of late posting a 2.20 ERA out of the bullpen compared with Miami's 4.91 over their last 5 games. 

Giants +147 3.5* MLB POD

Braves +118 4* MLB POD

I will back the Atlanta Braves here at home as the home dog.  I think the pitching match up favors the Braves as Jake Peavy has been over valued already as in his last two starts were at home he faced two of the coldest offensive teams.  Both the Brewers and the A's are hitting below .215 over their last 7 games.  Atlanta has been very good at home going 27-20 and they send Shelby Miller to the mound who is very under valued because the Braves have lost each of his last 8 starts, but the fact is Miller is a consistent quality start guy and I don't see that changing here tonight at home where Miller carries a 1.89 ERA.

Diamondbacks +126 4* MLB POD

I like this value we are getting with Arizona here today as the Nationals just got swept by the Mets and they may be feeling the pressure and really pressing at the plate at this point, because they are hitting .192 over their last 5 games and scoring around 3 runs per game over their last 10.  They will send an average pitcher in Doug Fister whose stock is higher than he deserves.  His velocity is down he can't get batters to swing and miss and he has an ERA over 5 during night starts.  I'll back the young Zack Godley on longer rest here and it also is worth noting that the Diamondbacks have been hitting and their bullpen has been superb of late. 

Mariners +110 4* MLB POD

I will go with JA Happ over Phil Hughes here.  Happ's velocity is up and he's always a consistent quality starter without many disaster starts.  Phil Hughes is exactly opposite and we have seen him starting to decline of late with a 4.77 xERA over his last 5 starts alone.  He has a very weak swing and miss rate and has been extremely lucky with an 86% strand rate and I just don't see that continuing.  Meanwhile the Twins are not playing well and have dropped 4 in a row being outscored 33-18.  I will take the Mariners here today. 

Marlins -126 4* MLB POD

[b]Astros -114 4* MLB POD[/b]

I will back the Astros here on Sunday with Dallas Keuchel having a 1.83 ERA during day games and leading the majors with 16 quality starts.  Keuchel is also on extra rest which I feel will really benefit him at this point in the season.   It also pays that hte Royals are struggling at the plate and scoring just 2.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10.  Meanwhile the Astros are hitting well with 5.44 vs. RHP over their last 10 and Yordana Ventura has not been the same pitcher as last year.  Some have hinted towards injury, but I don't know if that's true as his velocity is still among the best in the majors.  Hitters are just making better contact as he is one of the highest percentages of medium/hard hit balls in the majors at 90%.  Both bullpens are top tier while Houston's offense is a bit better vs. RHP than KC is vs. LHP no matter what way you look at it, overall, home/away, last 5 or last 10 games overall.  The value is right and I'll go with the Astros who are top 10 in OPS and ERA during day games this year. 

Reds -105 4* MLB POD

I am going to go with the Reds hereas I think they have a significant advantage on the mound out of the bullpen and the starter.  Anthony DeSclafani has been above average on the road posting a 2.53 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and he is the type of pitcher that pitches down in the zone and produces more ground balls which makes him a good fit for Coors Field in my opinion.  His counterpart Eddie Butler had a 1.82 WHIP before being sent to AAA in early June.  The Reds have good pop against RHP and that should be a problem for Butler as the Reds have also been hot of late with a .779 OPS over their last 7 days.  The Rockies are not that deep in their rotation and their bullpen is a mess.  I expect the Reds to get a nice win on the road here tonight.  

[b]Royals -129 5.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am playing the Royals big here tonight. I really feel like we have the value in this match up with Charlie Morton going on the road to face Edinson Volquez who has been a very consistent starter this year.  Volquez is no longer ace material, but he can look like that against the Pirates who are 21st in OPS against RHP.  The Royals are 8th vs. RHP and will face Charlie Morton who has consistently struggled on the road.  This is also the rubber game in the series and the Royals just have the hotter hitting and the better overall bullpen with the better starter.  Volquez has a 2.95 ERA at home while Morton has a 8.20 on the road.  The Royals are playing with plenty of confidence right now and are 52-23 in their last 75 games vs. a RH starter while the Pirates are 17-37 in Mortons last 54 starts as a road dog.

Braves +127 4* MLB POD

I see great value in the Braves at home here today.  First of all the Dodgers are very far from home and they start Brandon Beachy who was lit up in his first start against the Brewers just 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery.  The Braves know Beachy well so the scouting report should be top notch while the Dodgers are seeing Matthew Wisler for the first time.  Wisler was the Padres #1 prospect before coming over to the Braves and he's gotten better with each start.  I like how he has good control for a young pitcher and while he's had 1 rough outing all of the others have been pretty good.  The Braves offense has struggled lately, but being back home and facing a guy like Beachy should help them out.  The Braves also have the better bullpen in this match up as well and they are 10-3 in their last 13 home games. 

Brewers +121 4* MLB POD

I see a ton of value here with Milwaukee being an under dog.  First of all the Pirates are on quite the run, but the All Star break sure does not help any momentum.  This team still can't hit and their defense is one of the worst in the majors ranking 26th.  They will have the better pitcher on the mound here in Francisco Liriano, but he's had bad outings at Miller Park posting a 6.75 ERA over the  last 3 years.  He's had his share of struggles with a .824 OPS against these hitters and unlike his opponent he has struggled more during night starts than day starts and he's on shorter rest than Jimmy Nelson.

Nelson is on 5+ days rest has had excellent success against the Pirates and during night games, but why I really like him for this start is the fact that he has been lights out on extra rest.  In 5 starts on 5 or more days rest he posts a 1.56 ERA.  He's been getting better and better and he posts an elite 11% swing and miss rate.  He's 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Pirates this season.  I see no reason why it should change. 

[b]Red Sox -140 5* MLB POD[/b]

I like the Sox here tonight.  More so I am going to fade Ivan Nova.  Despite his ERA under 3, he is definitely not the same pitcher after 3 starts off the disable list.  He's been pretty lucky in each start as he nearly has a 1:1 K/9 vs. BB/9 ratio as his xFIP shows his ERA should be closer to 5 or higher.  He's been extremely lucky and I think that runs out here against the Red Sox who are playing their best baseball at the moment.  They are scoring over 5 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall games and they are coming off a loss at home to the Yankess which I like them to bounce back with their young gun Eduardo Rodriguez going posting a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.69 ERA overall and his raw stats are right in line with that.  Even better news is the Yankees have never faced him and they typically struggle against new starters.  Take the Sox here.