[b]Pirates -102 5* MLB POD[/b]

I really like this match up here.  Jeff Locke has been great at home posting a 2.64 ERA and he's really pitched quite well over his career against the Cardinals winning 2/3 of his starts against them.  Carlos Martinez is having a career year right now, but I believe he will come back to earth his raw stats are not really as impressive as his misleading ERA.  The Cardinals also struggle vs. LHP ranking 26th while scoring over a run less per 9 than they do against RHP.  Pittsburgh's offense is much better with this match up and they have given Martinez problems.  In 2 career starts he's allowed 11 ER in 11.1 IP.  Look for the Pirates to take this game. 

Astros +125 4* MLB POD

Cubs -125 5.5* MLB POD

I like the Cubs in Thursday's day game for various reasons.  First of all the Dodgers coming from the west coast to play in a day game starting a pitcher who is young and inexperienced on 4 days rest in a day game on the road is going to be a major challenge.  Carlos Frias has a 2.96 ERA on the road this year and that may be what's giving us some value, but he's got a 9.28 ERA during day starts and he's got a 7.72 ERA during his 4 starts on 4 days rest and this is his second start in a row on 4 days rest.  Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen is better especially looking at home/away splits where they have a run advantage and they post a 1.66ERA over their last 10.

The Cubs will start the veteran Jon Lester who is going up against the Dogers who are scoring 1.33 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than RHP.  They also have a .220 average and 2.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall vs. LHP.  Lester has far better stats with a nearly 4:1 ratio for K/BB while Frias does not even meet the 2:1 ratio which is a big red flag.  Lester also has pitched well during day starts with a 1.75 ERA and he's been very good on 4 days rest.  Take the Cubs here. 

Twins -141 4* MLB POD

Today's pitching match up between John Danks and Tommy Milone is pretty even for both south paws who have similar raw stats.  The major advantage is their individual performance against opposing hitters.  Milone has had 4 of 5 QS in 32.1 IP allowing just 5 ER against the White Sox hitters while opposing hitters have a combined .564 OPS against him.  White Sox are also ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP this year.

Meanwhile Danks has allowed 20 ER over his last 4 starts against Minnesota and looking back to his last 6 starts at Minnesota see's a history of struggles in every start adding up to 30 ER in 30 IP.  The Twins are scoring over 2 runs more per 9 innings vs. LHP on the year and their bullpen is about a run higher when you look at the home/away splits.  The offense has struggled a bit lately, but so have the White Sox.  I believe the value here is right as the line should be more like -160 or so.  Take the Twins. 

Oakland Athletics -129 5.5* MLB POD

I really like the A's here to bounce back from their 2 game losing streak after they had won 4 in a row.  Their offense is killing it right now and all they need is the right match up which is what we have today in a day game.  First of all the A's pitching staff is 5th in ERA during day games while the Angels are 30th, dead last in OPS during day games and they come in with a 5-11 record.

Jesse Hahn will make the start for Oakland and he has a career ERA under 2 in day starts.  I really like his chances going up against the Angels who hit LHP better anyways.  Jerred Weaver on the other hand will have his hands full.  While Weaver has a great history against Oakland his last 3 starts at Oakland have not been as great allowing 14 ER in 19.2 IP.  His 5.57 ERA on the road and the fact that both left handed batters and right hand batters are hitting him hard leaves me to worry.  Weaver has not pitched well in his 2 day starts and he will be on 4 days rest here for the 3rd game in a row and has posted a 6.64 ERA this month.  He'll face Oakland who has been killing RHP scoring 7 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP.  They also hit the curve and change very well which are pitches Weaver definitely leans on throughout an outing.  I'm expecting Oakland to bounce back here with a nice win after losing 12-7 the night before. 

[b]Braves +102 4* MLB POD[/b]

There is a lot of value here on the Braves as the Red Sox offense is really beat up right now.  Shelby Miller actually has the edge over Clay Bucholz in this spot. Both whom are on 4 days rest and Miller has the edge with a 1.59 ERA in his home starts to go along with a 0.97 WHIP.  He's had 5 of 6 quality starts on 4 days rest this year and all 3 at home were great including a complete game shut out.  Bucholz on the other hand has had 3 of 5 quality starts on 4 days rest and 2 he gave up 4 ER without getting past the 5th inning.  Right now Atlanta is a little better vs. RHP and their bullpen has started to turn things around while Boston has struggled.  I look for for the Braves to win back to back games here.  

[b]Giants -110 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

We have an interesting battle here between two similar starting pitchers in terms of raw stats, but I'll take the veteran at home over the youngster on the road on just 4 days rest.  Walker has a 8.27 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP on the road this year and in 3 road starts on 4 days rest he's allowed 16 ER in 12.2 innings pitched.  The Giants are a very good offense ranking 6th in OPS vs. RHP and I see Walker getting bounced out of this game early.  Hudson meanwhile can get by with his experience and it should help that the Mariners batters only have a 74 AB against him for a .520 OPS.  Hudson has a 1.17 WHIP at home and his bullpen is also better.  He also gets to go against the Mariners offense which is 28th in OPS vs. RHP. 

Cubs -115 4.5* MLB POD

Johnny Cueto starts for the reds on 4 days rest on the road after a 103 pitch effort last time out.  Cueto has not been nearly as good on the road this year as he typically is and I actualy think the Cubs have great value here with Jason Hammel.  Hammel has 5 days rest along with being at home and having better raw stats than Cueto.  Hammel has an amazing 9:1 K/BB ratio on the year and it's not like the Reds are tearing the cover off the ball.  .228 average 3.02 runs per 9 on the road vs. RHP.  Reds are really better vs. LHP, and their bullpen is not nearly as good as the Cubs.  Overall I just think the Cubs have every advantage including the starting pitcher, offense, bullpen, and home field advantage.  Take the Cubs.  

[b]Royals -129 4* MLB POD[/b]

I really like the Royals here on Sunday while the starting pitchers are not very exciting we have an excellent advantage and the value is right for us to play the Royals big.  First of all Colby Lewis who has given up 21 runs in his last 4 starts alone is going on 4 days rest on the road during a day start.  I don't anticipate him being able to go deep into the game when he has a 5.56 ERA on the road, and a 11.70 ERA during day starts in fact Texas is last in the league in ERA during day games and KC is #7 in OPS during day games.  I expect the Royals to look to avoid the sweep in their home park and they will send Jeremy Guthrie to the mound who has 6 straight quality starts vs. the Rangers.

Even if both pitchers don't do well we have the Royals superior bullpen ranking #1 in the majors up against the Rangers 26th ranked bullpen and the majority of their pitchers are worse during day games which is a big advantage here for the Royals.   

Marlins +107 4* MLB POD

This is a veteran battle with Dan Haren taking on Jon Lester.  Both starters have essentially the same ERA on the year, but Haren will start at home and has a far better WHIP.  Lester will also face the Marlins a top 10 offense vs. LHP and he's struggled vs. some of their veteran hitters in 87 AB vs. Lester the Marlins have a .391 average and 1.004 OPS.  Lester is however on 5+ days rest, but he seems to have his worst outings in that situation and it's hard to see him getting to up for a game in Miami at this point in his career.

Haren on the other hand faces a struggling Cubs offense that is scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 over their last 5 and he has held these hitters in check.  IN 73 AB they have a .219 average and a .571 OPS.  I'm expecting Miami to be able to steal this game from the road team and getting them as an under dog to me is a steal. 

[b]Angels -111 4* MLB POD[/b]

The Blue Jays are really struggling especially their starters and now their bullpen is also a mess and it seems to be bleeding over to the hitters as well as their average has dropped .25 pts in the last 10 games alone.  Dickey makes the start for the Jays, but so far he has not pitched well with 3 quality starts in 8 tries.  I think Shoemaker who has also struggled has better raw stats that should lead to greater success and the Angels bullpen is a half run better on the season. 

Orioles -130 4* MLB POD

Orioles -109 4* MLB POD

This is decent value here for the home team although they have the bullpen disadvantage they have the advantage on the mound here.  Wei-Yen Chen has allowed 3 ER or less in 9 of his last 10 starts vs. the Rays and he's got a career 3.26 ERA over 13 against them.  He's on extra rest here (7 days) and the Orioles have gone 21-8 in his last 29 home starts.  Baltimore offensively has the clear cut advantage and Nate Karns should not scare them.  IN fact in 30 AB against him they have a 1.132 OPS.  Karns is also walking 5 per 9 innings and has been lucky that his ERA isn't worse than the numbers show considering the .194 batting average balls in play.  That's extremely lucky and I think he has a tough task ahead of him facing the Orioles who are scoring 6.59 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year. 

Braves +100 4.5* MLB POD

These odds are great for the home team.  The Braves bullpen has been so bad this year I normally would not touch this team, but they come into this game facing a team with a bullpen that is just as bad if not worse.  So in reality it's an even trade off so looking at the starting pitching I see the Braves in a significant advantage based on a few variables. 

Jason Marquis is coming off a high effort 8 innings 2 ER on 113 pitches and at his age that will be hard to duplicate going on the road on just 4 days rest against Atlanta who is 11th in OPS vs. RHP.  Atlanta's offense is not elite, but at home and against RHP they have been pretty damn good.  They are scoring more than a run per 9 better vs. RHP and have averaged 5+ runs per 9 at home vs. RHP and 6.35 in their last 5 games overall.  Freeman, Markakis, Maybin and AJ P all have good numbers against Marquis.

For Atlanta they will start Eric Stults who in reality won't get anyone excited about wagering.  However, Stults is pretty consistent and when you look at the fact he's done pretty well vs. 4 top 11 offenses to start the year and now he faces the Reds who are 22nd in OPS vs. LHP and 20th on the road there is a lot to be excited about at this value which says the Braves are under dogs which I can no accept given all the facts we have outlined.

Astros -115 4.5* MLB POD

I'm going to go with the Astros here who come in red hot scoring 9.20 runs per 9 over their last 5 games while posting a 1.26 bullpen ERA meanwhile the Mariners who are supposed to be the better team come in on the opposite side of the spectrum scoring under 3 runs per game and a bullpen ERA over 3.  Bullpen is extremely important in this one as they are likely to go to it very early and the Astros have the advantage.  Seattle's bullpen has not been as good early as they were overall last year and James Paxton has been unable to go deep into games.  Paxton will be on the road on 4 days rest which is no easy task for him considering he's been on normal rest all season long.  He's also faced some easy talent along the way with his opponents ranking 17th, 24th, and 23rd in OPS vs. LHP.  Seattle is 18th, but still come in on fire and are certainly capable of defeating him by being patient.

The Astros will start the veteran Scott Feldman who has allowed .669 OPS to the Mariners hitters and posts a 2.67 ERA over the last 3 years in April.  He's off to a slow start, but really it was only 1 start that he struggled as he has had to face Oakland twice already who is the 5th ranked offense vs. RHP.  In this game he can relax a bit facing Seattle who is 22nd.  I just think the value is right because many are high on Seattle, but they can struggle offensively and I don't trust the young kid Paxton on the road with just 4 days of rest.  

Cubs +107 4* MLB POD (Cole/Hendricks)

I'm going to back the Cubs as they go for the sweep of the Pirates.  On paper it looks like the Pirates have a good chance to win game 3 here, because Hendricks numbers are not very impressive from an ERA perspective over 5, but when you really look at it Hendricks has a 1.09 ERA his 49.3% left on base % is extremely unlucky.  He also had to face two of the best hitting teams in his 3 starts in the Padres and the Rockies (on the road).  He's back at home with an extra day of rest compared with his opponent who is on 4 days rest and on the road which is really like 3.5 days.  Hendricks pitched well enough vs. the Pirates to get a win, but was a little unlucky and I bet that changes here at home.  Pittsburgh is 25th in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 2 runs less per 9 over their last 5 games while the Cubs bullpen has out performed them so far in this early season.

Gerrit Cole is a stud and should be around for years, but I will fade him on the road on short rest. His previous 3 starts at Wrigley have been average allowing a 4.00 ERA and I expect the Cubs to only need a couple of runs to get a win.  Cole also is off a season high 108 pitches which could factor in here.  I look for the Cubs to continue their early season success and get the sweep!

Athletics -145 4.5* MLB POD

I will take Oakland in this spot following being swept at home they get a day off with the Angels coming to town.  It's not like the A's have played poorly offensively.  They have really struggled vs. LHP ranking 29th in OPS, but they face Jerred Weaver a RHP whicht hey have success against.  His last two starts in Oakland did not go well 12.2 IP 20 base runners and 8 ER.  His velocity is down 3 mph on average from last year and he's giving up 25% line drives on batted balls.  He's never been a good raw stat guy, but he's gotten by with insane numbers at home, but over the last 3 years his ERA is 1.40 worse on the road.  In 2011 it was 2.93 which is exceptional, 2012 3.21, 2013 4.00, and then 2014 4.70 when he had a 2.68 ERA at home.  Weaver is just not a road dog and you simply can't back him going 7-19 in his last 26 as a road dog.

Oakland's hurler Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Angels with a 2.57 ERA over 6 career starts.  He's also held Pujols and Trout to 5-32 in his career which is pretty special.  Angels right now are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and their bullpen is starting to show their true colors.  Oakland hits RHP hard at home with 6.21 runs per 9 and I think with a day off they will be hungry to rebound behind arguably their best starter in Gray. 

Cubs -120 4* MLB POD

I like the Cubs int his spot and think they have a significant enough advantage on the mound tonight with Jason Hammel stepping up to face the Pirates in his second start in a row.  Hammel will be back at home for this one where he has 2 7 inning performances a year ago against the Pirates allowing just 5 ER combined.  Hammel has had some bad luck this year to start and his raw stats indicate he should get his ERA back down in the 3's.  He's striking out more than 8 per 9 and he's walking less than 1 per 9.  That's impressive when you consider Vance Worley is walking 4 guys per 9 innings right now.

Worley also on 4 days rest and going on the road which is not an easy task for anyone.  Worley is off 106 pitches in his last outing which was also against the Cubs who are ranked higher than the Pirates in OPS vs. RHP 13th vs. 22nd.  I also like the fact that Hammel in his last 3 years has a 2.64 ERA in his April starts v.s Worley who has a 4.45.  Worley has been the luckier starting pitcher so far this year and the Cubs are coming in hot at the right time scoring 5.81 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games. 

Bucks +3.5 4.4* NBA POD

I had the Bucks the other night and we lost by 1 point ATS.  I pointed out how in game 1 they could not have played worse and they picked up their defense big time in game 2 holding the Bulls to just 11 points to start the first quarter.  In the end their offense struggled because of it and they shot 35.6% from the field were at a 10 FTA disadvantage and 16 rebound disadvantage.  They also gave up 12 three's in the game to the Bulls.  I just don't see them playing that poorly for all 4 quarters again and in fact I think they'll win this game.   

Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD

This is a good spot to take the Jays as a small favorite at home.  First of all we have Chris Tillman on the mound going on the road on just 4 days rest to face the Jays who he has struggled against.  He's actually off 105 pitches in his last game as well and in his last 4 vs. Toronto he has an ERA near 9.00.  Over the last 3 years he's got an ERA at nearly 7 for his starts at Toronto who have a .877 OPS against.  The good thing for the Jays is they have been hitting the ball despite struggles from two of their best hitters, but it appears Edwin Encarnacion has figured it out as he belted 2 HR in Tuesday's game and has hit Tillman hard in the past.

Jays will counter with Hutchison who has struggled to start the year in 2 of his 3 starts, but he's a bounce back pitcher and is following 2 poor starts and will be on 5 days rest.  He's got a career 2.29 ERA vs. the Orioles and a 1.71 ERA in 4 home starts against them.  I'm betting he bounces back and the Jays also have the better bullpen as Baltimore ranks 27th in bullpen ERA.

Mariners -115 4* MLB POD
Taijuan Walker had a great spring and is off to a horrid start, but that's what gives us good value here.  Along with the fact that Mchugh, the Astros starter is off to a great start.  The difference is Walker has had two starts on the road vs. two top 5 offenses while McHugh has been at home vs. 1 top 5 and a 28th ranked offense.  I think everything will change here for these starters as Walker will be more in his comfort level having had 4 starts vs. the Astros in the past with very good results holding them to a .219 average.  He also gets to go against Houston's offense which is ranked 26th in OPS vs. RHP.  Seattle has the better offense and just came off 11 runs a day ago expect that to carry over here.

Padres +120 4* MLB POD

I will play the Padres here tonight as I expect them to have a pretty significant advantage with or without Justin Upton.  The odds are in our favor here as Jorge De La Rosa takes the mound for the first time against a hot hitting Padres bunch.  The Padres are just tearing the cover off the ball right now led by the resurgence of Matt Kemp.  This team is 4th in OPS vs. LHP and collectively are hitting .388 wiht a 1.035 OPS against De La Rosa over a 139 AB.  Kemp is 15-39 with 3 HR against the south paw.  De La Rosa also struggles in his night starts and in April over the last 3 years with ERA's over 4 for both.

San Diego will give Despaigne another start and although he had challenges on the road last year I think he's good enough to get it to the bullpen with a lead.  He has good stuff and had 7 shutout innings in August with 8 K's against the Rockies.  The Padres have a significant advantage out of their bullpen while the Rockies bullpen is not well rested since they haven't had one starter go past the 6th inning over their last 10 games.  I just like that we get an under dog here with the stronger pitching and the hotter bats.  More of a reason to play the Padres here tonight. 

Bucks +8 4.4* NBA POD

In my opinion the Bucks could have not played a worse game to start the series and that could have happened for a variety of reasons.  They still only lost by 12 points despite shooting 39% from the field, 25% from beyond the arch and 65% from the foul line.  I believe the Bucks bench really takes over this game tonight and I fully expect them to be in down to the wire.  The Bulls looked great, but I don't anticipate Derek Rose being that good in the second game in a row.  The Bulls scored 60 points in the first half and that's just not typical as I expect the Bucks to rebound here in a big way led by some of their guys off the bench.

Pelicans +12.5 4.4* NBA POD

The early money has pushed this spread 2.5 points from where it opened and I just don't see the oddsmakers being off by that much when predicting the market on this game.  I think the Pelicans have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while the Warriors had their seed clinched weeks ago.  I also think it's difficult for the Warriors to cover this number without shooting extremely well from beyond the arch and the Pelicans were ranked 2nd in the league in 3 point defense.  They also have arguably the best player in basketball and certainly the best big man in Anthony Davis.  Davis is a match up nightmare for the Warriors as he proved by averaging just under 30 points 13 rebounds and 4 blocks vs. the Warriors in the regular season. I think the health and return of Jrue Holliday will make the difference as New Orleans keeps this game close throughout. 

Cardinals -139 4* MLB POD

The Cardinals are already off to a great start, but now their offense is starting to come alive with 4 or more runs in 7 straight games and they have hit much better off RHP which they will face here today.  Homer Bailey makes his first start after a so so year in 2014.  Bailey is coming off the DL to start the year and I don't anticipate him going deep into this game which means more issues for the Reds bullpen which is already ranked 27th to start the year with a 4.70 ERA compared with the Cardinals fresh bullpen ranking 3rd with a 1.82 ERA.  Bailey also has had enormous issues with the Cardinal hitters in 200 AB against he's allowed a .360 average and a 1.013 OPS.  Sure he's had his occasional quality start, but he's just got a lot going against him against a healthy Cardinals line up that just has really killed him in the past.  Bailey also has not been typically at his best in April posting a 4.10 ERA over the last 3 years along with a 3.93 ERA during those day starts.

Cardinals will start somewhat of an unknown here to the majority of the public in Carlos Martinez.  Martinez is the typical Cardinal young stud pitcher.  He's pitched a lot in the bullpen and is making his slow transition into the starting rotation.  This can be his year, but he's still just 23.  Martinez has one of the best swing and strike rates at 12.9% and he's already proven it against this line up in his first start of the year going 6 innings and striking out 8.  He allowed 2 runs but both were off solo home runs which I expect him to eliminate here at home.  He also does not have to go deep into this game as the Cardinals bullpen is strong after Wacha and Lackey went 7 innings the last two nights.  Martinez weakness is walking guys, but the Reds are in the bottom half of the league in drawing walks and were 25th in walks a year ago while being in the top half of the league in strikeouts.  This is a good match up for Martinez and I don't think 1 start vs. the Reds will be enough for Cinci to have any type of advantage. 

Jays +100 4* MLB POD

You won't get the Jays as an under dog very often this year at home.  This is a superior offense that has scored double digit runs in 3 of their last 6 games.  The line is explained by Chris Archer and his success in Toronto along with his first start success which was 7 shutout innings of the Miami Marlins.  It's much different having a second quality start for Archer in a row against an offense that is much better than Miami.  The Rays are also 6-13 in his last 19 starts following a quality starts.  Archer has the potential, but he's not really consistent and I look for some of the same problems to factor in with tonight's game.  I also feel that the oddsmaker is not giving Aaron Sanchez enough credit.  He struggled vs. the Orioles, but I think he'll be fresh for this game and will be able to get it to the bullpen with the lead.  Sanchez was electric out of the bullpen last year with a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings out of the bullpen. 

 Angels -125 4* MLB POD

We are getting great value here with the Angels with this line dropping 30 points here.  First of all Weaver struggled in his first start against Seattle on the road, but that's nothing new for him.  Weaver is never going to have the sexy raw stats, but I'll take him at home at this number where he has posted a 2.57 ERA over the last 3 years.  He's also posted a 2.84 ERA over that time in April/May starts and a 1.38 ERA vs. the Royals.  Guthrie on the other hand has not had as great success with a .843 OPS vs. the Angels hitters allowing 10 HR in 157 AB.  He has 30 GS in April/May over the last 3 years and an ERA over 4.20.  KC has started hot this year, but still even the best teams lose about 40% of their games. 

Pacers/Pistons U193 3.3* play

I don't see the Pistons giving much effort in this one and they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league on any given night.  The Pacers are still trying to get into the playoffs so I expect their defense to be playing at its highest level which it has of late.  Pacers trail the 8th and final spot by one game and this is a high total for them.  I also like the fact that the Pistons have gone over in their last 2 so their offense is due to be shut down by one of the leagues best defenses. 

[b]Bulls/Heat Under 191.5 3.3* play[/b]

A lot on the line here for both teams and most of the meetings previously went under the number they are setting here tonight.  With playoff implications like the Bulls playing for home court I believe we will see a defensive intensity here.  I'll take the under. 

[b]Charlotte/Miami U189.5 3.3* play[/b]

Both teams are trailing the Celtics by 1 and 1.5 games for the final spot in the east and I believe the defensive intensity is going to be high for this meeting.  The recent history between the Heat and Charlotte have been defensive oriented as well with an average of 175.3 pts per game this season so I think we get great value at 189.5 especially with playoffs on the mind of both teams. 

[b]Orioles -113 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I think this is a pitching mismatch with the experienced Chen facing off against Nathan Karns who has 24 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Chen has been a proven commodity and this Orioles team is still built to win this year and they get Chris Davis back tonight as well after server the 25 game suspension.  Chen also looked better than Karns did int he spring this year so I'm giving him a huge edge on the hill and the price I'm asked to pay is not too expensive. 

Wisconsin -115 4.5* NCAAB POD 

The Badgers are the experienced team here.  Duke has enough to get by here, but I worry they won't be able to match the complete effort of Wisconsin.  Wisconsin has far too many weapons here and you remember they lost in December by 10 points to Duke.  Ironically they played their worst defensive performance against Duke in that game as the Blue Devils shot 71% in the second half alone and 65% overall.  It would be near impossible for Duke to have the same type of effort here and I also think they greatly benefited by having extra time to prepare for that game.  They had Stanford on November 22nd and then Furman followed by Army with Elon on deck meanwhile Wisconsin had Georgetown and Oklahoma followed by Marquette which is a much more challenging stretch.  Either way this Wisconsin team seems to be on their way after defeating Kentucky.  I don't worry about a let down here as they are led by senior Frank Kaminsky and Bo Ryan is one of the most under rated coaches in all of basketball. 

Marlins/Braves Under 7 3.3* MLB POD

I'll start out the year with an under despite this game being in Miami I feel the pitching is always ahead of the hitting at this point in the year.  I also believe Atlanta lost a ton of talent and Miami will start Henderson Alvarez who posted a 1.60 ERA in 90 innings at home last year.  Julio Teheran counters with a 2.89 ERA overall last year and both teams are backed by solid bullpens.  I have no reason to believe a lot of runs will be scored.  The Marlins had the 6th best bullpen a year ago and return pretty much everyone and the Braves always have a solid pitching staff.  Take the under. 

Michigan St +6 5.5* NCAAB POD / 2* bonus on ML +220

I really just don't see this line getting any higher so I'm going to snatch it at +6.  I really think Michigan State can win this game as they are peaking at the right time.  Duke is extremely young and I really worry about the week off and the increase in press.  Now Coach K is an exceptional coach for those distractions, but in the end Michigan State is getting a lot of disrespect.  The alleged height advantage they have is not that significant when you take into consideration that the Spartans rebound extremely well and they also alter opponents shots ranking in the top 50 in shot block%.  Duke relies heavily on Jahlil Okafor and I could see him getting in foul trouble early here or at least that will be part of the strategy.  Look these teams met very early in the year and Duke won by 10 points.  Michigan State played their worst defensive game and still lost by 10 points.  They are a much better team  and their NCAA success is very impressive beating Oklahoma, Louisville, and of course Virginia to get here.

[b]SUNS +13 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will back the Suns here knowing they are a desperate team right now that can not lose meanwhile the Warriors have the #1 seed locked up.  The Warriors have covered 8 of their last 10 which I feel is a good reason for Vegas to raise the price to play them, but this team may start to take it easy now as far as intensity goes while the Suns should be laying it all out to win this game which I believe they will have a shot at in the end.  

Louisville +2.5 4.4* POD;

Louisville U59 1H 2.2*;

Louisville +6.5/ Gonzaga +6.5 3.3* teaser;

Gonzaga +1.5 1H 2.2*

nc st +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD - 1h UNDER 2.2* 

[b]Notre Dame +2 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Notre Dame has not even come close to playing their best game meanwhile Wichita State just got done beating their in state rival Kansas.  They barely ever play, but it was a huge game and win for Wichita and now they have to face a Notre Dame team that has not played their best game and are certainly do.  I think Notre Dame comes out and wins this game getting to the elite 8 and I think they are under dogs, because a lot of people knew people would be jumping on them after beating Kansas.  I'm not buying into it and I think Notre Dame plays their best game yet.

[b]UNC +10.5 / UCLA +12.5 3.3* PLAY[/b]

Two of the highest seeds left in the tournament playing some very good teams, but both of these programs have plenty of talent to pull off an upset.  I can't see either of them losing by double digits so I'll tease them since we have been losing a lot by 1-2 points.  

Northern Iowa -2 4.4* NCAAB POD 

BONUS PLAYS INCLUDE

SD ST +5.5 1ST HALF 2.2* 

IOWA +3 1ST HALF 2.2* 

NC State +9.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

NC State comes off a very big win as they came behind with a ton of confidence down 16 to defeat LSU.  Nova looked great the entire day and cruised to an easy win, but this is a team that is partial to the upset.  NC State played a very difficult schedule this year out of conference and in conference where they did defeat UNC, Duke, and North Carolina.  I think this line is a bit inflated due to Villanova's seed and blowout in the first round, and NC State has proven they can hang with a team of Villanova's caliber. 

Maryland -4.5 4.4* POD

This is a dangerous team in the tournament and I just don't think Valpo stacks up here at all.  Valpo did not have a good strength of schedule in conference or out of conference and the two teams they did play who are usually pretty decent (New Mexico, Missouri) were not in the top 200, but they still lost by double digits.  Maryland has 9 wins against tournament teams including MIchigan State twice, Iowa State and Wisconsin for an impressive resume.  They have a SR guard in Dez Wells who will take over a game and can score from all over including the FT line.  They also have to other guys that will get to the FT line in Trimble and Layman and they have some big enough guys to contend with Valpo's trio.  More athleticism and great guard play here will be the difference. 

Texas -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Texas is not supposed to be in right?  Their coach is going to be fired, but I'm not buying it this is a very good team #1 2 point defense in the country and really played well down the stretch against some tough competition.  This 2 point defense allows 37.8% and Butler will rely heavily shooting 71% of their shots from 2 point range and are ranked 203rd in 2 point % so they are going to have a real tough time scoring points in this one.  Meanwhile their defense is ranked 153rd in 2 point defense and Texas 2 point offense is better at 130th.  9 of 10 of Butler's losses were against man defense which is what Texas will play.  Texas also 4th in rebounding % and have a huge size difference along with the fact that they are a much deeper team relying on their bench for 40% of the minutes.  Isiah Taylor is the better guard in this match up and the combo of Myles Turner, Holmes and Rolley will be too much for the perennial Cinderella team in Butler. 

Portland Blazers -2 3.3* NBA POD

Grabbing this line early here I just think Portland is in a better spot in this game.  First of all Miami comes in after a huge emotional win over a hot Cleveland team and now they have to face a very good Blazers team.  I think we see a line that is a couple of points off in this one and while Portland has the #4 2 point defense, Miami has the 22nd defense.  In fact they are below average vs. 3 point shooting also ranking 22nd.  Portland is 7-1 straight up vs. teams in the bottom 10 in the league in both.  Miami meanwhile who shoots 70% + shots from inside the arch are 1-8-1 ATS vs. the top 5 team in the NBA in 2 point defense and went 2-8 straight up. 

[b]NETS -145 4* NBA POD[/b]

I'm willing to pay a premium here on the line to get back into the win column.  I'll be back later today with our NCAAB POD as well as we continue to be selective until the NCAA Tournament kicks off.  This is New Orleans 4th game in 5 nights and they are coming off a couple of big wins while the Nets are very well rested.  The Pelicans are also short without Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holliday which I feel will be a big factor down the stretch which is where the Nets have been struggling, but tonight they will have rest on their side. 

4.4* NBA POD on Nets -1.5

Minnesota Twolves +4.5 3.3* NBA POD
Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous 2 were against playoff teams. Now they have to face the Twolves who lets be honest is not on their radar. On deck is the Houston Rockets who are tied with them in the West playoff picture. I expect a little look a head and a spot for Portland to relax just a bit too much as Minnesota can beat good teams especially at home.

Duquesne +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Millions watched as Davidson defeated VCU on Thursday night in what was considered a "bubble game"  With just 1 day rest they have to travel to finish up against Duquesne on the road after a 82-55 win.  This is a huge letdown spot for the visitors with just 1 day of rest.  Davidson dominated the Dukes back on February 7th winning 95-69, and I look at a similar situation with arguably the best team in the A10 in Dayton who beat the Dukes 81-55 at home and went on the road to lose 83-73 on February 21st.  The Dukes have been extremely competitive and unfortunate at home.  They lost to St. Bonaventure in OT, to VCU by just 6, Rhode Island by 1, but have some excellent wins over Dayton and George Mason, and George Washington at home.  I think they'd like to close out the season with one more great performance. 

Wizards -1 3.3* NBA POD

Syracuse +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Utah -1.5 3.3* POD
I expect Utah to get revenge here tonight on Arizona. Both teams are pretty evenly matched and Arizona probably does have more talent, but Utah is one of the most efficient teams in the country on defense and offense. Arizona has already lost 3 times on the road and 2 of those losses that team was top 50 in 2 point defense. Utah is ranked #4 in 2 point defense where Arizona will attempt nearly 80% of their shots. I always like looking at that factor because it allows you to really break down a game from the perspective of where the game will be played the majority of time. Arizona does not really have any road wins to really hang their hat on and Utah has one of the best home court advantages especially with their unique elevation factor. The same advantage has translated into the NBA for the Jazz and for the Utah football programs. Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 home games and I expect them to take this game tonight. 

Pacers +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I have been very conservative this year in NBA betting, but when I see an opportunity I like I jump all over it.  The Cavs are red hot winning 18 of 20 and they are off their biggest win of the season a big 110-99 at home against the leagues best team, the Golden State Warriors.  This is a great let down spot for this team while they are also playing in their 5th game in 8 days.

The Pacers are definitely having a tough time this year but they are playing their best basketball.  They have also beaten the Warriors and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 while their only 2 losses came against the Spurs and the Thunder. 

 Portland +3 4.4* POD

Very similar situation as BYU is looking ahead to their showdown against Gonzaga where Portland wants revenge on BYU for their loss earlier this season.  They definately have the offense for it and I think they will get a win at home where BYU has won 4 in a row SU and ATS are being a bit over valued here.  Portland faced BYU on the road and played their worst defense of the season along with being -10 FTA.  They are a different team at home and it will show tonight. 

Eastern Mich pk 5.5* NCAAB POD

I love Eastern Michigan in this spot right now they have a very good team that is very good on its home court (14-2 on the season).  They have been able to get it done with excellent defense at home and I think it continues tonight.  In the first match up between these teams Eastern Mich just played terribly with their 25th worse offensive night and 17th worse defensive night meanwhile Central enjoyed their 3rd best defensive game.  I don't see that happening on the road where they have struggled and their inexperience has shown as they rank 222nd in experience to Eastern Michigan's 86th ranked experience.  This defense is ranked top 75 in turnover %, effective FG%, 2 point and 3 point defense, block % and steal % and rank 58th in adjusted defense overall having faced a 102nd adjusted offensive schedule.  Now Central Mich comes into the game ranking 32nd in adjusted offense but really can't take them seriously considering their opponents rank 292nd in adjusted defense.  They are 1-3 vs. the MAC's top 4 defensive teams and their only win was at home vs. Eastern Michigan who wants revenge here tonight.  I typically think the revenge factor is a bit over rated, but this game has a lot that I like about it from the home defensive team with more experience and revenge to the fact that Central Michigan played one of their better games in the first match up while Eastern Mich played one of their worst.  I bet that switches around here tonight.

[b]Georgia Tech +6.5 3.3* play [/b]

[b]MICH ST -118 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take the Spartans here with a little revenge on their mind having lost to Illinois on their own court not that long ago.  Michigan State shot 38% that day and 38.9% from the FT line and I'm betting those numbers improve dramatically here today.  Michigan State has a lot of experience on their side and although Illinois is 12-1 at home they have been far luckier than Michigan State with close wins that could have gone either way.  They are also 1-3 vs. the top 5 defenses in the Big Ten excluding Michigan State.  Michigan State still is the #1 defensive efficiency team in Big Ten play and I expect them to play like it here today.

[b]Northern Arizona -1 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I like Northern Arizona in this spot in conference play this is a veteran led team ranking 53rd in the country in experience and Eastern Washington comes in with their 20-6 record riding high, but Eastern Washington is 10th in strength of schedule in Big Sky conference play they are the #1 offensive efficiency however they just shoot too many 3's and they are facing the #2 conference defensive efficiency team.  Northern Arizona has a huge advantage here at home they are the better defensive team by far and rebounding even gets better with a 52.7% rebound rate compared to Eastern Washington's 46.1% on the road.  Eastern Washington has not shot the ball as well on the road and they have been very lucky this year in games that are supposed to be close and I'm betting against their luck here today.

BOSTON COLLEGE +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Tennessee +13.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

Georgia Tech -150 5.5* NCAAB POD

[b]Quinnipiac +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take Quinnipiac in this spot who already lost to Iona on the road this year as Iona shot 12-23 from 3.  That's Iona's bread and butter and they are not shy about hoisting up the 3, but Quinnipiac defends well at home 31.6% beyond 3 and they are #1 in the nation overall in rebounding % while Iona is #228.  Quinnipiac is also #1 in 2 point defense and block % in conference play so they should enjoy a good advantage inside the arch.  As long as they can put together an effective game plan to defend the perimeter I see them winning this game or covering the 3 point spread on Sunday. 

Michigan State -2 4.4* NCAAB POD

I'll take the Spartans here today. For one i feel these two teams are pretty even and their strengths and weaknesses are pretty damn similar.  Ohio State has a freshman as their best player while Michigan State is built more on a team aspect with talent spread around.  They are under sized compared to Ohio State yet they are a far superior rebounding team which to me just is odd.  Michigan State lost their last home game against Illinois and I don't see them losing this one.  They have been pretty unlucky all year, but I believer their advantage in experience will be the difference.  In addition Ohio State has covered 4 of their last 5 games ATS and the margin of victories ATS have been very high.  We get an inflated line here because of it.

Ohio State also returns Marc Loving today from suspension which I think will do more harm than good.  He was averaging roughly 25 min before the suspension and you really can't expect to just plug him back in with results or without impacting the chemistry a bit.  Michigan State's  2point and 3 point offensive and defensive ranks are the best  averaging a national rank of 33.75.  Ohio State is just 3-4 on the road and have lost to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Louisville and all 4 of those teams struggle more in at least two categories.  Michigan State is more complete and consistent and I think their motivation to win this game is right in line with our prediction.  

[b]Providence +155 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'm going with the Fryars to upset Villanova here tonight who in reality have not had a tough schedule at all especially their schedule away from home.  Nova just got done seeking revenge on GEorgetown at home after they got beat badly against them on the road and I think Providence is in a good spot here to pull the upset.  First of all they have had a more challenging schedule overall and in conference play.  Providence is very good at getting to the FT line especially at home and Nova is just 90th in 2 point defense allowing 45.2% overall but on the road they allow 49.9%.  I expect Providences offense to just be fine and that means this game comes down to whether or not Villanova can make three's.  They have done it well all year, but a team like this who relies on the 3 ball so much is a very risky play.  Providence is very good defending the 3 at home at 30.9% and are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  I'll take the Fryars to come up with a big win and guarantee themselves a spot in the tournament. 

[b]Celtics +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks after such a great first half they will finally get a chance to relax for a bit after they face the Celtics on the road.  With that on the horizon they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and it's another on the road.  Granted they are 21-6 ATS this season on 1 days rest something has got to give.  Boston will be far more rested here with 3+ days off and I think the energy will show as they really have nothing else to prepare for with a week off after this game. 

Texas Tech +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

[b]Memphis Grizzlies -133 4.5* NBA POD[/b]

I'm taking the Grizzlies to defeat the Atlanta Hawks.  The Grizzlies are off a bad loss while the Atlanta Hawks just got done beating the Warriors at home in an exciting show down.  It's hard to see them not having any type of a let down after that game while the Grizzlies are still a tough defensive team that rarely loses in these type of moments.  I'm expecting a double digit win, but given our poor luck in losing games ATS by 1-2 points of late we will be taking the Grizzlies money line here today.  

[b]San Diego State -120 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

We have gotten unlucky lately on top plays missing a few by just 1 point and it happened again last night despite Northern Illinois leading most of the way they were able to fall apart and lose by 4 points when we had them at +3 which really pissed me off but that's the nature of basketball which is why we are typically selective.  Here today I think we get excellent value on San Diego State playing their biggest threat to winning the Mountain West in Boise State.  San Diego State in my opinion is at another level than Boise State who relies on offense ranking 36th in adjusted ranking, but they have faced an opponent defense SOS of 186th.  San Diego State is by far the best defense they have faced all year long ranking 5th overall and top 25 in defending the 2 and 3 ball.  San Diego State also rebounds well and can turn you over and they have done so against a very tough schedule along the way.  Boise leaves a lot to be desired defensively including their 207th ranked 2 point defense ranking.  They are good about not sending teams to the FT line which is a good thing for the Aztecs because they are not very good % wise when they get there.  San Diego State is 5-0 vs. teams not in the top 200 in 2 point defense with an average margin of victory of 14.2.  This game's line is off a bit because San Diego State has struggled a bit on the road, but I believe their focus is on this game.

Northern Illinois +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Northern Illinois is 3-6 in conference play Bowling Green 6-3 and everyone is jumping on BG to get their 2nd win vs. Northern Illinois after they beat them by 10 earlier in the year, but the only difference in that game was Bowling Green's ability to hit 3's as they went 7-18 while Northern Illinois shot 2-12.  Neither team has an elite offense in fact in conference play Bowling Green is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and Northern Illinois is ranked 11th.  The difference being BG can not manufacturer offense in creative ways while Northern Illinois is 1st in offensive rebounding % and FT rate.  Northern Illinois has an even greater advantage at home where they are +12 FTA, +4 rebounding and +3 turnover margin on the season on average at home. I think they will win all 3 categories and ad din the fact that Bowling Green wins with defense, but is 7th in 2 point defense overall is a scary stat with Northern Illinois shooting all of their shots from 2 70% roughly.  Bowling Green defends it well at home 39.6% but on the road that number climbs to 53.5%.  

Clippers -1 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Iowa -125 5* NCAAB POD[/b]

One play tonight as we continue to let our forumulas tune as we have hit a bit of a rocky road, but I really like Iowa's chances here as the better team despite losing three in a row (they were dogs in each).  Michigan comes into the game playing well going 4-0 ATS without some key players in their leading scorer Caris Levert and Derrick Walton who is their 2nd leading scorer, but it's about to add up for them in a game that Iowa absolutely needs.  Iowa has had the #1 strength of schedule in Big Ten play and I don't considering Michigan one of the top teams right now.  Iowa has a top 50 team when it comes to experience while Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.  I expect Iowa to use that experience and get a big win here on the road which is not uncharacteristic of them as they have already beaten Minnesota, Ohio State, and North Carolina on the road. 

[b]Wizards +6 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will take Washington here as the Hawks finally ended their historic winning streak in New Orleans a day ago and now they are playing their 4th game in 6 nights traveling back home for this one.  Washington meanwhile has lost 3 straight and is desperate for a win and playing a big time game against Atlanta could be exactly what this team needs.  After all they did get smacked by the Hawks by 31 points the last time and allowed over 50% from three point land.  I just don't see that happening or John Wall and Bradley Beal turning the ball over 10+ times like they did in the first match up.  The last match up was a tough spot for Washington after they just beat down the Bulls with the Spurs up next this time it's a tough spot for Atlanta with Golden State, the leagues best team coming in next.  I expect a let down here especially after their winning streak. It's like when pitcher finally gives up the hit in the 8th inning of his no hit or perfect game.  Typically the flood gates open and hits come in volume.  I expect the Hawks to go on a bit of a losing streak from here.  

Seahawks +2 5.5* NFL POD; Seahawks +8 / Under 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser

The value here is on the Seahawks when you look at the fact that the Patriots were to be 3 point under dogs before any games started last Sunday if in fact it ended up Patriots vs. Seahawks.  Many books were releasing those lines, but the way each team got here is very different and public perception right now is the Patriots are better.  Even with the deflategate because most people feel that did not even help the Patriots, but I'm going to jump on this game before several consequences are handed out.

Bottom line is the Patriots struggled vs. top tier rushing games and tough defensive lines.  The Seahawks probably have the best combination of defensive line and secondary and then add in the fact that they are 3rd vs. the run.  Patriots struggled vs. the Bills who also have an excellent defensive lines and multiple times vs. the Jets and Dolphins and Chiefs.  I expect Seattle with 2 weeks to prepare will be well prepared and they always say defense wins championships.  While the Patriots have a pretty damn good defense as well it resides mostly in the secondary and I think the Seahawks can really run the ball in this match up if they stay dedicated to it.  

Listen every team has a bad game and that's what happened to the Seahawks.  They are mostly a team that takes care of the ball, but for whatever reason they turned the ball over 5 times.  How many teams who turn the ball over win the game?  Not many especially when you are facing a future Hall of Famer at QB in Aaron Rodgers.  I just think people are down on the Seahawks because many feel the Packers choked the game away, but perhaps this will humble them as they prepare for another great QB in Tom Brady.  Seahawks defense will be plenty motivated when you think about the fact that they will have the ability to defeat two of the best QB's of all time in back to back years.  

Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker! 

Under 44.5 yards (-110) for longest FG of the game 2.2* play
This game features two of the best defenses and two of the best kickers, but I don't think either kicker will make a FG over 44.5 yards. When you think about the percentages There are 72 opportunities for the teams involved in their opponents throughout the season. In 18 games the Patriots only had 5 games with a FG over 44.5 yards and they only allowed one in 6 games while the Seahawks only had 5 over 44.5 yards as well and allowed their opponents 5. Both of these teams are aggressive and I feel like if they get down around the 30 they are likely going for it.

Field Goal 1st Points of Game +125 1* Play
The first score has been a field goal in 12 of the Seahawks 18 games. I think they dictate this game a lot and the field goal will be the first points of Super Bowl 49. Patriots came in at just 5 of 18, but still that's 17 of 36 which is essentially even yet we get the value at +125.

Lagarette Blount U62.5 yards -130 2* play
The over would be the hot play here after Blount just got done running all over the Colts with 30 carries and 150+ yards, but Blount never had more than 12 carries all year long. The Patriots have a tendency to not lean on 1 guy and I doubt Blount will get 17 carries which is approximately what he would need to get to 63 yards vs. the Seahawks who are 3rd allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle will also game plan to stop Blount as they are very good at this compared with the Colts who were 24th. I also see a competitive game so I don't see the Patriots running it 30+ times as they only select running plays 40% of the time anyway.

Brandon Lafell U18.5 yards longest reception -115 1* play
Lafell is listed as questionable so he must play for this one which I believe he will. His toe injury could impact him here but that's not why I play the under here. New England is not a big play offense ranking 25th in big plays on the year while the Seahawks rank #1 in big plays allowed. They rank #1 in passing big plays allowing just 14 all year so I don't expect Lafell to have an impact on this game at all with long plays. Patriots are smarter than to attack a very good secondary like that. 

Luke Wilson Over 2.5 receptions-115 3* play
Seahawks TE group was really banged up this year and Luke Wilson really stepped up down the stretch. He's not really known as a big time threat, but he got plenty of targets down the stretch over the last 5 games having 3 or more in each and had 3 TD catches in his last 4 games. New England wants to and will take away the WR of Seattle with their excellent secondary so I believe Wilson will have a big role in this game. NE was ranked 4th in opponents most targets towards a TE at 6.5/game. Only 2 out of 18 games did the Patriots allow less than 3 receptions to an opponents TE. Seeing as Wilson is the only TE getting targets these days I would love to take the over here. 

Tom Brady U266.5 yards passing 3.3* play
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.

[b]USC +11 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is a rematch of a game about a month ago and USC was extremely young then and they still are, but 30 days a team definitely improves and on that day they clearly could not have played any worse shooting 38.5% getting out rebounded by 6 and -15 FTA  while allowing Utah to shoot 58% from 3.  Utah is a different team at home and while I think they will win this game it will take a lot more effort to do so.  Utah has the 10th toughest schedule in PAC 12 play so they have been lucky with how they have gotten here.  I think the fact that they shot 42% of their shots from outside and USC does defend well at home 30.8% and the fact that they have a game to look at to make adjustments gives us plenty of value here on USC. 

Depaul +12 4.4* NCAAB POD

Villanova is the better team, but with this game being on the road it's a little more evena nd I don't see 12 points being enough to separate these two teams.  First of all the strength of schedules have been very similar only Depaul has had the #1 toughest schedule in Big East play while Nova has had the 9th toughest.  Nova's main strategy is to get open looks from 3 while they have taken 40% of their shots and it did them well shooting 13-29 from 3 at home vs. Depaul which I don't see happening again as Depaul is ranked 28th overall in 3 point defense.  Both of these teams are rather similar ranking in top 100 shooting the 3 and top 30 in defending it and I think Depaul will have greater success here today shooting and defending.  When you look at home away splits Depaul is shooting it 39.2 % from beyond the arch and defending at 26.5 while Nova is a bit worse 34.3 vs. 29.4.

Depaul has been a good team at home already beating St. Johns, Xavier, Marquette, a good Stanford team and they lost by 6 to Georgetown who Nova lost to by 20.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Depaul win this game, but my money is on them to keep this game within single digits. 

[b]Bulls +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

We are getting some value here on the under dog after a 3 point line move.  Chicago has been very good on the road this year going 17-7 and they have been very good following a loss going 14-4 this year.  Phoenix also caught in a spot where they could be looking ahead to the Warriors and Grizzlies who are in their conference and play on Saturday and Monday night.  The concern with the Bulls is back to back OT games and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is a tough team and the fact that they rebound well and defend the paint gives me plenty of confidence.  

Middle Tennessee -110 4.4* NCAAB POD

Middle Tenn is just the better team here and I'll play them to win on the road.  First of all the biggest difference between these two teams is their opponents faced while Texas San Antonio has the 317th ranked strength of schedule and has beaten only 1 team in the top 250 Middle Tennesee is ranked 168th in strength of schedule. To put it in perspective Middle Tennessee has beaten 12 (all of their wins) vs. top 250 schools and their lowest opponent loss was against #163.  UTSA is #219 and that's only because of their adjusted offense is ranking #117, but their  defense is the real story ranking 299th in adjusted efficiency while their 2 point and 3 point defenses do not rank inside the top 300 in the nation.  Middle Tenn is 4-0 vs. defenses not in the top 250 and they have beaten all of the conference defenses that have struggled. 

Creighton +1 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD

I like Creighton int his spot to finally get their first Big East win of the year.  St. Johns comes into an interesting spot after playing Duke as Coach K got his 1000th victory.  I'm sure they put a lot of effort to make sure that didn't happen on their floor, but came up short.  It's not like Creighton has been a bad team they have been largely unlucky and have faced a very difficult schedule.  Kenpom has them as the #1 toughest schedule in conference play while St. Johns is 7th so I'm not surprised they have lost every game.  They still have a top 100 offense adjusted at the end of the day and they are playing at home.  Their adjusted SOS for defenses faced is 24th while St John's is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in conference play.  St Jonh's is 4-6 vs. Top 100 offenses and 3 of those 4 wins came at home. 

NETS +14 3.3* NBA POD

Florida -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Florida is a desperate team right now meanwhile Auburn just came off a home win over their biggest rival in Auburn in dramatic fashion.  Florida is a far better team that has gotten really unlucky this year but they are top 60 in 2 point offense and defense as well as top 100 in offense and defensive rebounding.  Alabama not a good rebounding team at all ranks 187th in rebound rate on the season while Florida is 78th.  I see a bit of a hang over for Alabama here with Kentucky up next it's a nice sandwich game and I love how desperate this Florida team should be here tonight.  Alabama also is 0-3 vs. top 50 2 point defensive teams which Florida fits.  Meanwhile Florida is 6-1 vs. teams that do not rank in the top 100 in adjusted defense which Alabama fits.  Florida has faced a more challenging schedule ranked 16th toughest and it will benefit them down the stretch. 

[b]76ers +15 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans playing in their 6th game in 9 days.  They get the lowly 76ers, and I doubt they are going to be up to dominate this game and win by 16 points or more.  Pelicans also just came off a huge upset win at home over Dallas on Sunday which sets them up for a potential let down spot.  The 76ers meanwhile come in on 1 days rest after losing 83-101 as 17.5 point dog vs. Memphis.  However, the day of rest and the value we are getting here is too much to pass up considering the situation.  The Pelicans also are without Jrue Holliday and already lost on the road to the 76ers as a 7 point favorite.  Since when is home court worth 8 points in the NBA?  

NC State +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Looking over these two teams there is not much that separates them.  Notre Dame's offensive stats are very impressive, but you have to take a look at who they have played.  So far they rank 277th in strength of schedule meanwhile NC State comes into this game ranking #34th in strength of schedule.  NC State is a well balanced team top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are also the better rebounding team especially at home.  The great thing about NC State is that they are a focused team going 7-0 following a loss.  They lost a game against Virginia on the road and bounced back to beat Duke on their home court recently.  I think Notre Dame could also be peaking to their game on Wednesday with Duke.

[b]Pacers -125 4* NBA POD[/b]

Both of these teams are struggling, but the Pacers get George Hill back who is an intricate part of this team over the years.  There is no doubt their offense will improve with him back on the court.  Orlando is just a bad bad team as they are ranking 20th in 2 point %, but even worse when playing at home, while also ranking 27th in 2 point defense and 26th in rebounding %.  Those 3 categories are what I call the core of the game.  On any given day anyone can get hot, but statistically speaking the odds are against them here.  Indiana is worse in 2 point offense, but I believe that improves with Hill's ability to find guys open looks and their defense is still one of the best ranking 7th in 2 point defense.  Orlando is 4-11 vs. top 10 2 point defensive teams this year.  Indiana is also 6th in rebounding rate and Orlando is 6-13 vs. top 10 rebounding teams.  

Bucks +2.5 3.3* NBA POD

LA Monroe +1 4.4* NCAAB POD

I will go with the home dog in this spot.. First of all Monroe has faced a much more difficult schedule than Georgia Southern along the way at #197 compared to #309 for Georgia Southern.  Both teams have top 100 adjusted defenses with offenses that struggle.  I took a look at what each team did against top 100 defenses and LA Monroe was more impressive at 2-2 facing Florida on the road they took them to OT, and they lost by only 8 at New Mexico.  Actually all 4 of their games vs. top 100 defenses came on the road so it's no shock to me why their offense has struggled this year.  Meanwhile Georgia Southern went 3-1, but they played TExas State twice who is ranked 275th in 2 point defense where as Monroe carries a top 50 2 point and 3 point % defense.  Georgia also had the advantage of playing 2 of those games at home, but now they are on the road where Monroe should also enjoy the rebounding edge.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgia Southern is ranked 92nd in 2 point defense but on the road they are allowing 46.5% compared to Monroe who is allowing 41.4% at home.  Remember Monroe has had a more challenging schedule to get there.

Indiana -110 3.3* NCAAB POD

I'm going with the Hoosiers here as Maryland is getting a lot of credit and rightfully so, but I still think they are a bit over rated for this spot on the road.  They did beat Michigan State twice already this year, but they have been a team that you can score on and Indiana has a top 50 offense and they can score from inside and out.  Meanwhile they have struggled to guard the 2, but Maryland struggles to shoot it especially on the road.  Indiana is 4-1 vs. power conferences who have top offenses and when you look at those teams who struggle to score inside they are 2-0.  Both Pitt and Butler have quality offenses but their 2 point offense is a weakness much like Maryland all 3 ranked outside the top 100 in 2 point offense. 

[b]Ole Miss +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Both teams here come off equal impressive victories, but Georgia just beat their #1 rival in Florida and they did so as an under dog so I'm expecting a bit of a hang over here as Ole Miss comes to town getting 4 points which I just feel is too much.  Ole Miss has some great wins and has faced the SEC's toughest schedule and have looked better doing so than Georgia.  The biggest difference is defense.  Both teams are going to attempt the majority of their shots inside the arch (over 70%) and Georgia is ranked 14th (dead last) in the conference defending the 2 point game and they rank 78th int he nation.  Meanwhile Ole Miss is 11th in the nation defending the 2.  They had success recently against Kentucky nearly winning in OT on the road so they should not be freaked out by going on the road in conference play one bit.  Ole Miss also handles the ball better and is nearly even with Georgia in rebounding.  I expect a tight game throughout with Ole Miss pulling out to an early lead.  

Georgetown +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I think the Hoyas have the ingredients to pull off the upset as they are very good in 2 point defense and 2 point offense.  They are the more physical team and better rebounding team and playing at home.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgetown has played the 25th toughest schedule while Nova is at 63rd.  Both teams are top 60 in adjusted offense and defense, but really sticks out in this one is Georgetown's 12th ranked block % and 47th ranked 2 point % defense.  Their ability to defend in the paint is critical here and the fact that the majority of their shots will come from here it's key that Villanova, a team getting a ton of hype right now has the 110th ranked 2 point defense.  Georgetown will take 71%+ of their shots from 2 and  Nova allows 45.6% and even worst at 49.7% on the road.  12 of their opponents have not even been top 150 in 2 point offense so it's not like they've faced quality teams along the way.  The teams that have been good at scoring inside the arch have regularly put up 70+ points but don't have the defense and rebounding ability that Georgetown has. Georgetown is 9-0 when they score 71+ points this season which I think they get to tonight. 

[b]Oregon +4 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is offense vs. defense with Oregon being in the top 100 in offense and in the top 10 in tempo while Washington is top 50 in defense.  Washington has really had an easy schedule to start the year 240th ranked SOS while Oregon sits in at 141.  The stats are similar on both sides so I'm not surprised that the line is 4 points, but I believe we are getting just a a couple of extra points and the fact that Oregon comes off a lost while Washington comes off a win gives me enough incentive to pull the trigger. 

Oregon can play defense as well ranked 13th in 2 point defense compared to Washington at 5th, but the difference in this game is rebounding and getting to the FT line.  Oregon is better ranking 12th in FT % while Washington is at 273 and they are a slightly better rebounding team as well.  I think their pace is also going to get to Washington who is used to a slower type of game which allows them to set up their defense and be in good position.  A team that pushes their possessions changes that completely and it's not surprising to see that Washington is 1-2 against top pace teams with their win coming by just 2 points over Oklahoma.

Seahawks -7 5.5* NFL POD

The Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl.. So R-E-L-A-X relax as one of the most arrogant QB's of all time will go down this Sunday by double digits!  First of all Aaron Rodgers is clearly not healthy in the beginning of games and the Packers struggled for 3 quarters to move the ball consistently on the Dallas Cowboys.  Now they turn up the competition and go on the road where they have not played well all season.  Seattle's defense is playing better than it has all year and I think this is just a mismatch.  The Packers do have the better QB, but defense wins championships and it's too bad that Rodgers can use this strained calf as an excuse.  He seemed to be pacing himself in the game on Sunday which was smart and by the 4th quarter he was lose and almost appearing to be 100%.

This offense topped 30 points only once on the road this year and it was against the Chicago Bears defense that was depleted at the time. The Bears finished the season ranked 30th in yards per play allowed on defense.  Seattle is #1 currently while the Packers are #1 on offensive yards per play they are 9th when it comes to yds/play on the road gaining nearly 1 yard less.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAB PO

I'm going with Oregon State here as the defensive team going against an offensive team.  Oregon State and Washington State are being said to be evenly matched based on this spread.  Washington State was just an 11.5 point dog at Washington meanwhile Oregon State was a 7 point dog vs. Washington so I really see that this spread should be -1 or a pk for this game, but because Washington State has just won three straight games SU and ATS as an under dog in conference play we have to respect them, but I just feel the more balanced team is Oregon State.  They also come off a loss where they have been especially dangerous going 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31.  They have a top 50 defense and WAshington State has gone just 3-3 vs. top 100 defenses.  Washington State relies on the 3 ball way too much and are shooting it 43% of the time at home, but Oregon State is 12th in the nation at defending the 3.

On the flip side we have Washington State here who is a top 100 offense ranked 74th in adjusted offense.  Oregon State has gone 4-2 vs. top 100 offenses and when they face a defense that's outside the top 200 they are 6-0.  Defense really carries a team on the road and I love the guard play of Oregon State led by Gary Payton (yes the son of Gary Payton).  He's a reason why they are so good defending the 3 and rank top 20 in turnover % defense.  This team is also ranked 75th in rebounding % compared with Wash State who is 148th.  They just are flat out the better team and not being treated as such. 

Idaho +5.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

I like the Vandals here in this spot.  They are the better team overall and though they are on the road we only account 3-4 points so I think they should be more like a 3 point under dog yet we are getting over 5 points at some books.  Both of these clubs have top 100 offenses and are #1 and #2 in offense in their conference but are below average on defense ranking 10th and 11th in conference play.  Idaho overall has faced a bit stronger schedule as far as the offenses they have gone up against and they have held up better vs. top 100 offenses going 1-2 but holding those opponents to 89, 86, and 71 meanwhile Sacramento State vs. top 100 offenses (like they'll face today) has gone 0-3 and allowed 84, 80 and 104 losing by 11, 5, and 46.  Their last game vs. Northern Colorado looks awfully similar to this game. Northern Colorado has a top 100 offense (Idaho is a bit better) and a bottom of the league defense (Idaho is a bit better).  Overall I'd say Idaho is a better team than Northern Colorado who is far worse in rebound rate and just a bit worse in 2 point defense.  Actually Idaho is better in both those categories than Sac State.  The most glaring is the advantage they'll have on the boards here tonight ranking in the top 100 in rebound rate while Sacramento State comes in at 237th.  I expect Idaho to win this game outright but 5.5 points is just too good to be true. 

[b]Vanderbilt -2 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

I will go with the home team here tonight as I think Vanderbilt is in better shape to take this game.  Georgia is off 2 losses including a dramatic over time loss to LSU and they have a look ahead spot with Florida up next a game that is much sexier than playing Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has a very solid team and are also coming off a loss without any look ahead games and the Commodores are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.

Georgia is going to take 75% of their shots from 2 point range and Vanderbilt is a very good rebounding team especially at home where they get 55% of the rebounds.  Their defense improves by 5% from 2 point range when they are at home so that's another edge they will have in this game.  Georgia's defense just has not transitioned on the road and they are one of the worst  in the SEC.  They have played 4 top 50 adjusted offenses this year (Vanderbilt is 30th), and have gone 1-3 and I think tonight will make them 1-4. 

76ers +16.5 3.3* NBA POD

16.5 points is a lot of points to lay even though the 76ers typically are up to the task, but they come off a double digit home loss where they are 10-3 ATS following such a scenario.  They also have some decent wins of late and have won 3 of their last 5 while the Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6.  The Raptors also have a bigger game ahead of them in Atlanta. Toronto also has not played good enough defense for me to back them as such a favorite ranking 23rd in opponent shooting %, Philadelphia ranks 21st and 25th in 2 point % where Philadelphia will take 75% of their shots on Wednesday night.

Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX  POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus

Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns.  I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals.  Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon.  We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus.  The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech.  However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3.

I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense.  I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing.  People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success.  Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start.  This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect.  Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact.  Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers.  I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers.

A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53.  Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground.  And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft."  I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again.  In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog.  I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to.

Cowboys +5 5.5* NFL POD

Of all the road teams this week I think Dallas has the best shot at coming out on top.  Everyone is piling on the Cowboys and the officiating from a week ago but I still think this Cowboys team is more focused and ready to continue their run for a rematch in Seattle.  They are 1 of 4 teams with a top 10 rushing and top 10 passing attack, and the only one with a top 5 of both.  Green Bay's defense is going to struggle in this game.  The other two times they faced a top 10 balanced attack they lost and gave up 200 yards rushing in both games. I expect much of the same here with Dallas picking up nearly 200 yards rushing and controlling the game.

Tony Romo never gets the credit he deserves and even if Suh was held like crazy on the last play of the game last week I think it's finally time for Romo to win a big playoff game and earn the credit.  Romo had a 121.8 QB rating on the road this year and nobody else is even close.  He benefits from having the best rushing team in the league, but he's played smart.  Demarco Murray should be fresh in this game coming off just 19 carries vs. the Lions and Romo has 4 legit weapons to pass to in Beasley, Witten, Williams, and of course the diva Dez Bryant.  All 4 bring something different to the table.

Dallas still has to defend, but they seem to be getting better as the season goes along. They were #3 in the league in opposing QB rating on the road holding 8 QB's to a combined 81.2 QB rating.  Although they haven't played someone as good as Aaron Rodgers, they just seem to be a very good road team that I would like to back at this point in the season. 

Ravens +7.5 5.5* NFL POD
I am going to grab this line right now.  The Ravens have proven that when they are in the playoffs they are one tough team to beat.  It's a combination of Joe Flacco being so cool and their coach John Harbough who is one of the best in the league.  Harbough is 9-4 in post season play and 2-1 in New England including a game that they arguably should have won. That's not to say that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't great in their own right, but over a TD is just too much when you consider that the Ravens are the physical type of team the Patriots hate to play and struggle with.  The Ravens strengths are up front along the defensive line they have the run stuff unit that is among the best in the league led by Ngata and Suggs and Dumervil are terrorizing off the edge and could give Brady some issues.  Bottom line this Ravens team was the best in their division all year long and proved that by moving on yesterday.

Bulls +1.5 3.3* NBA POD

I will go with the Bulls here considering they are coming off a 20 point loss to the Jazz and I know Coach Tom Thibodeau is an excellent coach who preaches defense first and will want to rebound in a hurry and going up against a very good playoff team like the Wizards will be an excellent way of forgetting the embarrassment from their last game.  Meanwhile the Wizards just won over the Knicks by 10, but the Knicks are the worst team in the league and were playing withouth Anthony Soutdemire and JR Smith.

Michigan State +3 -102 3.5* NCAAB POD

I will take the Spartans here in conference play as a dog.  First of all their adjusted offense and defensive numbers are quite impressive being 43rd on the offensive end and 9th on the defensive end.  Their offense is very balanced with 4 guys averaging double digits which normally translates well on the road  and they have a guy in Denzel Valentine that can score from anywhere on the court. The Spartans have also played 4 top 20 teams at the time they have played them and rank 90th in strength of schedule.  There loss to Texas Southern at home and then losing to Maryland at home as well is what gives us some nice value on the road here.  The defense is playing much better and they are top 25 in effective FG% on the defensive and offensive end.

Iowa on the other hand are 260th in strength of schedule and they are 261st in effective FG%.  They rebound well and play solid defense, but I think both teams here play solid defense and Michigan State really has the advantage in coaching and in their offense.  This will be a tough task for the Spartans, but I think they are up for it.

Pacers +11.5 3.3* NBA POD

I like Indiana here tonight getting 11.5 points as they are 8-2 ATS as a dog of 8+ points this year and 13-4-1 ATS on 1 days rest.  The Warriors have been red hot beating some very good teams in impressive fashion winning by ATS margins of 22.5, 16.5, and 22.5 so Vegas has been pretty far off.  They are still getting the majority of the money here tonight, but I think we will see an inspired performance from the Pacers facing off a team that is now the #1 defense in the league in the Warriors which is something the Pacers were very proud of in years past.  

Florida -115 3.5* NCAAB POD

I really like Florida here to rebound following 2 straight losses as heavy favorites.  Despite having a worse record we have them ranked higher than South Carolina who is off to a hot start at 7-3 ATS while Florida comes in at 3-8-1 ATS.  Don't let those records fool you as South Carolina has faced a strength of schedule of 178th while Florida comes in at 62nd.  Florida has the 81st adjusted offensive ranking compared to South Carolina at 133, but both of these teams play defense.  I think the team that's more desperate with the better offense will be able to come out of this with a key victory especially since the home team is riding high off their recent upset of Iowa State as a 6.5 point dog which is making them a heavier favorite than they should. 

Texas A&M +5 3.3* NCAAB POD / Under 126.5 2.2* bonus[/b]

the public has pushed this number quite a bit but I'll take A&M who I think is the better team at least in adjusted rankings.  Home court is not worth this many points and there are several other factors that make Alabama a risky play such as the number of times they take three point shots.  Roughly 40% of their shots are from three and that really falls into the Aggies strength here ranking 41st in three point defense and they have actually allowed 25.6% on the road.  Overall they rank #54 in adjusted defense compared to Alabama who is ranked 74th.  So we also get the better defense on the road while we also get the better rebounding team as A&M ranks 62nd compared to Alabama at 141st.  I also think Alabama's offense has been as good as it has been because of the teams they have faced as the opponent defense strength of schedule comes in at 327.  This is clearly a step up and A&M should keep this game in the 50's.  A&M faced two similar teams with this type of defense and were held to 52 and 56 points against Wichitah State and UCLA neither of which are ranked in the top 100 in 3 point defense or even 2 point defense for that matter.  For that reason I will also go with the under as the Aggies are Under in 43 of their last 62 road games and the Crimson Tide are also under in their last 4 vs. the SEC and 31 of their last 43 following a SU win.