White Sox -158 4.5* MLB POD
Iwakuma only pitched in relief against the White Sox last year, but facing the White Sox lineup that was 3rd in the league a year ago in HR could be a major issue for a guy that was among the league's leaders in HR/FB ratios at 17%. He'll have to contend with Adam Dunn, Konerko and Rios in the middle of the line up and do it all on the road where he has not been able to put up great numbers posting a 4.20 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP a year ago. The White Sox are 24-11 in their last 35 home starts vs. a RH starter.

On the flip side Chris Sale had a 2.30 ERA at home and a 2.79 ERA during the day. He'll face the Mariners line up that was ranked 24th in OPS vs. LHP and 30th with a .625 OPS during day games where they were 23-30. The White Sox were 31-23 during day games and ranked 12th with a .738 OPS. White Sox bullpen is also playing excellent and Sale should get to 7 innings as he had a 2.93 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Mariners a year ago with a total of 15.1 IP thrown. The White Sox have owned the Mariners going 40-15 in their last 55 home meetings with them.

Syracuse +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
I like the Orange to continue their role in the Final Four and move onto the National Championship. Michigan will struggle in the half court because Jim Boeheim will eliminate the wide open looks that Nick Stauskas took against Florida. Syracuses sufficating defense won't let Michigan get out in transition either which will turn this game into a half court game. Syracuses defense is the best Michigan faced all year because they shut down the three rankin 3rd in the nation and allowing 18.2% over their last 5 games combined from 3 and 31.5% overall.

There is a reason John Beilein is 0-9 vs. Boeheim and I think that will continue. Michigan is also not a deep team so expect Syracuse to try to get some of these players in foul trouble. Syracuse has plenty of offensive talent that is showing up in this tournament led by point guard Michael Carter Williams who could be a lottery pick in the draft. CJ Fair and James Southerland can knock down the three while Christmas and Keita will get offensive rebounds for second chance points. Syracuse was ranked 12th in offensive rebounding % and I think that will be the difference.

[b]Nationals +107 3* MLB POD[/b]
The Reds will continue to struggle scoring runs vs LHP until Ryan Ludwick is back which won't be for a long time. Ludwick had a .936 OPS vs. LHP last year help leading the Reds to good stats vs. lefties. The Reds will face off against Ross Detwiler today who in 4 career starts has yet to earn a win against the Reds despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. I think that win comes today as he's backed by the best bullpen in baseball. This will be one of the few games the Reds won't have the best bullpen and Detwiler has also been excellent during his day starts posting a 2.35 ERA over his last 10 day starts. Washington also had the 6th best OPS during day games last year with a .756 and their hitters have a ton of success against Mike Leake, who is making the start.

Leake is not a special pitcher. Won't blow you away with his stuff and he posted a 5.12 ERA this spring while opponents had a .333 average against him. Leake gave up 11 ER in 2 starts vs. the Nationals last year and I expect those struggles to continue today as they have a .904 OPS and 5 HR in just 81 combined at bats vs. him. Leake had a 6.25 ERA during 8 starts last year and posted a 5.54 ERA at home. Overall he has a 5.13 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Nationals in his career and his main issue is home runs. He had a 16.7% HR/FB rate last year which was one of the worst last year. The Nationals are just 14th in FB%, but they get the most bang for their buck ranking 4th in HR/FB a year ago with a 13.1%. This is a bad match up for the Reds and all signs are pointing towards a Nationals victory and we have crazy good value with the Nationals as an under dog.

White Sox -137 3.5* MLB POD
I think this is a good match up for a White Sox veteran led team facing Blake Beavan who is an extreme contact pitcher. He's got good control, but he was the 2nd lowest in K/9 (3.96) among pitchers with 150+ innings pitched in 2012. This is nothing new for Beavan who has a K/9 average of just over 5 in the minors. Beavan will return to the minors most likely when others get healthy. In two starts vs. the White Sox last year he was nothing special going 11 innings giving up 18 BR and 7 ER and Paul Konerko and Alex Rios are 6-10 with a HR against him. The White Sox are also 23-10 in their last 33 vs. a RH starter at home and I expect that success against RHP to continue where they were ranked 10th in OPS last year.

The Mariners on the other hand were 24th vs. LHP in OPS and have a .159 average vs. lefties through the first few games of 2013. They'll face Jose Quintana who is similar to Beavan in that he's not going to strike a lot of guys out as he lacks an elite pitch, but I like how he looked in spring posting a 2.03 ERA compared with Beavan's 6.52 ERA in spring. Quintana despite his ERA pitched better at home, struck more guys out, walked less guys and got more ground balls. I expect him to have a better ERA at home than last year and he'll be backed by a bullpen that could be one of the best in baseball. They are a mixture of young live arms and savy veterans which is usuallya recipe for success. Mariners are just 14-39 in their last 53 games in Chicago.

Phillies +117 3* MLB POD
I think we get great value here with Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee had a 3.16 ERA last year and only managed 6 wins so he'll be extra motivated to get wins early this year while he has a healthy line up to back him up for the first time in a while. The Phillies will have Utley, Rollins and Howard in the line up who are a combined 8-19 vs. Kris Medlen who was on fire to end the year last year. I think odds are high on Medlen because of last year and there is not a huge body of work and not a lot of success for him in the early season. He had a 7.23 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP this spring and I'll trust the more veteran pitcher in this situation.

It's also important to note the Phillies were 12th in OPS vs. RHP last year while the Braves were 23rd vs. LHP.

Dbacks -118 3* MLB POD
70% of the public are pounding the Cardinals here after losing game 1 in this series. The Diamondbacks had 15 hits yesterday and although their team is not full of a ton of power they have a lot of speed and contact hitters which should be a good match up for them today as they face off against Jaime Garcia. Garcia had a solid spring, but he's a pitcher I don't trust on the road where he posts a 5.02 ERA a year ago compared to his 2.82 ERA. That was no coincidence going back the last three years Garcia has a 4.46 ERA road and a 2.33 at home. Arizona also hits lefties hard ranking 8th last year in OPS where I think they can actually improve. Garcia is also just 0-7 in his last 7 starts when facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they scored 5 or more runs. I expect the Dbacks to stay hot here tonight.

Trevor Cahill takes the mound for the Diamondbacks after posting a 1.86 ERA during the spring. He actually was rather dominant to close the season last year posting a 2.62 ERA over his last 5 starts. At just 25 years old there is no reason to believe that the ground ball pitcher can't continue to get better. This game may turnover to the bullpens where the Diamondbacks have a significant advantage where they could have the best bullpen in the league this year with David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Heath Bell and JJ Putz rounding out the group. They were 10th last year while the Cardinals were 20th in ERA. Cardinals are also without one of there better relievers in Jason Motte who posted a 2.75 ERA last year. Add in that David Freese is also on the DL and the Cardinals could get off to a very slow start.

[b]BYU +3 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
It's not every day that a team loses against a non-conference foe and gets revenge. Baylor won at home earlier in the year 79-64 on 9-18 shooting from 3 point land. Baylor can hit the three with Grady Heslip, but they are extremely streaky. With 3+ days off going into this game I think that will come back to hurt them along with BYU playing lights out on their way to the Garden. I feel these are two evenly matched players and Davies and Haws were a mismatch for Baylor in the first game and they will be again as they will the Cougars to victory.

Reds -108 4* MLB POD (1-5*scale)
I think we are getting tremendous value here with the Reds if you look at all of the facts. First of all the Angels are getting a lot of pre season hype and rightfully so after signing Josh Hamilton to add to that line up. So naturally we are going to get an inflated line on the side of the Angels early this season as the public will back them.

In this match up the pitching match up is pretty even among the starters. Johny Cueto has been a dominant force and so has Weaver. Cueto though has a 19-5 day record over the last 3 years with a 2.03 ERA and also posts a 2.58 ERA at home over that period of time while the Reds have won 17 of his last 21 home starts. Cueto is backed by the best bullpen in the game from last year which likely won't change as the Reds kept Chapman in the bullpen instead of moving him to the rotation. Broxton, Marshall and Lecure make up a deep bullpen for this Reds team.

Jered Weaver is always in the running for the Cy Young and last year was no different when he posted an ERA below 3. However his xFIP was 4.18 as it seemed he was very lucky with a .241 BABIP. He is a fly ball pitcher which could be dangerous playing in Cinci. The Reds traded for Shin-Soo Choo to upgrade their offense and it could pay dividends right away as Choo is 13-29 vs. Weaver. The Angels are backed by a poor bullpen that did get a few upgrades from last season, but Ryan Madson will start the year on the DL so once again their bullpen will be a real weakness. The Angels are also 0-5 in Weaver's last 5 starts as an under dog and he has a 3.42 ERA on the road over the last 3 years which is nearly a run higher than Cueto's production at home over that period of time. Reds also were 9th in OPS during game days to the Angels 16th ranking last year while their pitching ERA is #1 compared to the Angels 4.11 ERA (22nd) during day games.

Florida -2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Florida is one of the few teams that is top 30 in 2 point, 3 point % offense and defense and that is what Michigan will have to contend with today after their dramatic OT win over Kansas. I see Michigan with a bit of a hang over here today as a veteran led Florida team should dominate this game from start to finish. The one theme that's true of this Michigan team is that they struggled when they faced a balanced offense or defense and Florida has both. Really the only team they beat this year that was an overall balanced team was Kansas and they had to come from 14 down to do it. Florida has much better guards than Kansas and I don't see that type of dramatic come back being a possibility in this game. Michigan went 1-4 vs. teams that were top 33 in both 2 point and 3 point defense losing twice to Indiana and Wisconsin and of course beating Kansas.

To put this in perspective Florida played Wisconsin earlier in the year and won by 18 points. They shot 61.9% from the field and that was against Wisconsin who is 26th vs. 2 pointers and 8th vs. the 3 ball. Florida was also +18 rebounds in that game and should have a sizeable advantage on second chance points today where they are ranked 65th overall in offensive rebound % with 33.8% while Michigan is ranked 168th in that category. Florida over its last 3 games though have been pulling down 37.8% rebounds. Overall Florida is the better team and I've been saying it all along that the Big Ten is a bit over rated and we saw it once again yesterday with Ohio State going down and today it will be Michigan's turn.

Twolves +3.5 3.3* NBA POD
Memphis defense has really struggled of late and they come into this game on 0 days rest and are letting Marc Gasol play with his rib injury. I don't think it's the greatest idea and this team will likely be a bit hung over after beating Houston in a big game last night and with their next game being against the Spurs on Monday night they will surely be looking ahead to a potential playoff match up. Meanwhile Minnesota just keeps playing well they come into this game also on 0 days rest and that is where they seem to get in a groove shooting as they score their most points. Coming off a 100 point effort against the leagues 2nd best defense was impressive and I think it carries over to tonight as they improve on their 7-4 ATS record at home vs. teams in the top 10 in 2 point defense %. Minnesota has gotten some big wins at home recently and on the season vs. this type of team including beating Indiana and Oklahoma City twice, and the Spurs.

Wichita State +5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I won't go as deep into this match up, but I really like Wichita St to come out on top. Neither team is great in one category as they only are top 25 for 1 category a piece. So nothing really sticks out when looking at team strengths vs team weaknesses. I will say this about Wichitah State, this program is built on rebounding, toughness and defense and that's the type of team I like to back when we are talking about being a significant under dog in a big game. Wichitah State is 6th in rebounding % and 9th in offensive rebounding % in the country. Ohio State has fared well against these type of teams going 5-3 vs. top 25 offensive rebounding teams, but 3 of their 5 wins were by 3 points per game. So 6 of the 8 games they played top rebounding teams they would not cover the chalk they are laying today.

I also think the Big Ten is a bit over rated as we have seen some of the top programs go down yesterday (Michigan St, and Indiana the day before.) Michigan should have followed that trend if Kansas did not choke away a 14 point lead late, but what I looked at in this match up today again was 2 point offense and defense along with who these teams have had to face in the tournament. I looked at opponents and their balanced offenses and defenses and I think we are getting value here with Wichita.

First of all Wichita 41st in 2 point defense, and 66th in 2 point offense while Ohio State is 46th and 80th. What I noticed was Wichita definitely played better against better competition. First of all they kept their season average of 50% from 2 point range against 2 point defense ranked 10th, 277th, 54th and those defenses also could defend the 3 ranking 116th, 25th and 33rd. Ohio State has shot more than 3% worse (46%) against defenses ranked 37th, 220, and 230th and their defenses were also bad from 3 ranking 265, 45th and 315th nationally. They have not faced a team ranked top 100 in both categories and today will be the first time as Wichita is ranked 41st in 2 point defense and 100th in 3 point defense. Same facts are true about each others defense. Wichita's defense has allowed 39.6% from 2 and faced the 6th, 92nd, and 37th 2 point % offense all of which had pretty good balanced ranking 60th, 29th and 118th in 3point% offense. Ohio State faced 3 balanced offenses and allowed 45.9% from 2 during the tournament far worse than their season averages.

My point basically is Ohio State won't be able to get away with playing like this today and if they do it will be a close win and we will cover the spread which is what I am betting on.

Duke -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Duke gives me the most value here today in my opinion as these two great coaches face off against each other. For what it

Hornets +6 3.3* NBA POD
Miami's long win streak finally came to an end and now they get a mental break as they go to play the Hornets, a game that means literally nothing. The Heat have wrapped up the 1st seed and home court throughout so this game literally means nothing to them. I expect them to have a major hang over after playing a very physical game against the Bulls. Don't be surprised if the Hornets win this game outright. Anthony Davis and Eric Gordan did not play in the first match up in Miami and they have been playing great at home of late beating Denver to end their long win streak then beating Memphis and 1 day ago they were in a battle with the Clippers before LA ran away with the game. The Heat have the Spurs and Knicks coming up and I'm sure they'd like to concentrate their efforts on those games rather than this one. The Hornets are also 22-5 ATS in their last 27 following a SU loss of 10+. They have the advantage down low as they are 11th in rebounds +8.4/game over their last 5 where Miami is 24th and -6/game over their last 5.

Syracuse +5.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Indiana had quite the scare in their last game against Temple and they really did not look that great against James Madison. This team maybe is not as good as advertised? Syracuse meanwhile has looked good throughout their Big East Tournament run into the NCAA Tournament. They are among the few teams ranked in the top 30 in both 2 point and 3 point defenses. Indiana is one of the top offenses in the nation, but when they have gone up against good defenses that's when they are involved in some tight games. They only faced one team ranked in the top 30 in 2 and 3 point defenses and that was Wisconsin who beat Indiana twice.

The other top 30 2 point defenses they faced were Minnesota who they went 1-1 against and beat by just 7 at home. Ohio State was ranked 42nd and they also went 1-1 against them. As far as 3 point defense Syracuse is ranked 6th while Indiana lost to the 8th best 3 point defense in Wisconsin. They went 2-0 vs. Michigan State ranked 17th, but the wins were just 4 and 5 points and Michigan State doesn't have the 2 point defense that Syracuse has. They also went 2-0 vs. Iowa who are ranked 9th vs. the three, but the win on the road came by just 4 points. Looking at the numbers Syracuse adds different dynamics than any of these opponents and they are playing their best basketball. Wisconsin does not have skill players and as much of an offensive ability like Syracuse and they beat Indiana twice. Syracuse also features a defense that has the ability to turn you over ranked 25th in turnover per possession percentage. The best Big Ten team in terms of forcing turnovers was Ohio State and Indiana had plenty of problems beating them. At the end of the day Syracuse is poised here and I think this is a bad match up for Indiana as I expect Syracuse to win this game outright.

Grizzlies +1 4.4* NBA POD
I think this is a good spot for the Grizzlies after losing to defensive minded Wizards on the road. Now they go and play a bottom tier defense in the Knicks who rank 23rd in 2 point defense where the Grizzlies will take 84% of their shots. Both big mans are out in this game in Tyson Chandler and Marc Gasol for me that's a wash. Not only are the Grizzlies 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS on the road facing a team ranked 20-30th in the league in 2 point defense, but they play the Knicks who are on 0 days rest after coming off a huge win vs. the Celtics.

The Knicks should be a bit hung over in this game as the Grizzlies try to rebound from a disappointing loss against the lowly Wizards. Memphis is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss and going back further are 51-25-3 ATS in their last 79 vs. teams with a win% over .600.

Mercer +7.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
BYU is just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 following an ATS win. They are the only team from their conference still a live, but they have not gotten any big wins all year long. They beat Washington in the first round, but that was not a complete surprise as Washington was up and down all year. Now they host Mercer out of the same conference as Florida Gulf Coast.

Mercer won AT Tennessee in round 1 of the tournament, but that was not the first time they won on the road against an SEC team. They also beat Alabama on the road and they beat the ACC Florida STate on the road holding them to 35.4% shooting from the field while BYU lost on neutral court by 18 points to Florida State. That right there tells me we have value in this line. Despite being under sized Mercer plays great defense ranking 38th in 2 point defense where BYU will take 73% of their shots tonight. BYU is 178th in that category. Mercer will also slow the game down if they can making us have even more value at 7.5 points as they are in the top 20 in opponent points scored. I look for Mercer's back court duo of Travis Smith and Langston Hall to lead them to a nice victory.

Wizards +4 4.4* (NBA POD)
Ton of value here in this line. Memphis is going to be playing without Marc Gasol which is a huge key for them since they take roughly 85% of their shots from 2 point range and they'll be going against one of the better 2 point defensive teams in the Wizards who rank 7th.

Memphis also just beat Boston and has the Knicks and Rockets up next so they'll likely also be looking ahead to those games. The Wizards are a solid home team and I think they will win outright tonight as they have the ingredients to pull off the upset. They have the 2 point defense and the ability to hit 3's which is where Memphis is vulnerable allowing 37% from there on the road which is good for 16th.

However, without Gasol in the lineup I think the Wizards can shoot a bit better in the paint as well. Washington is 39.1% from three at home which is good for 4th in the NBA. The Wizards also score their most points on 1 days rest while the Grizzlies score their least. Wizards are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 after allowing 100+ points, 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. the West.

La Salle +2.5 1st Half 2.2* play
This is a game where La Salles guards should have a bit of an advantage and should be able to continue their hot shooting. However they give up a lot on the blocks and that's something that will wear on them in the second half. Mississippi has been a slow starting team all year and with Marshal Henderson jacking up threes that should continue. Look for La Salle to come out hot once again in this game and fade late, but I won't be shocked to see them move on to the Sweet 16.

Minnesota +8 4.4* NCAAB POD
Love Minnesota here as they have a lot of talent for an 11 seed and the Big Ten is backing it up on the court in the tournament. This is a team that relies a lot on 2 point offense and I'll back a team getting this many points going up against a team like Flroida that really jacks up too many threes. If Florida is not hitting those threes they can and will lose this game because Minnesota is 18th in 2 point defense. They also have been defending the perimeter allowing just 27.5% over their last 5. They have the guards to stay with Florida's great guard play with Andre and Austin Hollins who put up 44 points on UCLA on Friday.

Look for Minnesota to avoid turning the ball over and turn this into a half court game. They want to slow you up and play physical and I believe they will be able to dictate pace here today making this game a lot closer in the end. Minnesota is a great rebounding team, better than Florida in rebounding % so it will be hard for Florida to get rebounds and push it. Florida is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. teams with a win % > .600. They lost to a lot of bad teams on the road and did not even win their conference championship. I think they may go down here or in the next round.

California +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
What beats Syracuses great zone defense? Good guard play and the ability to penetrate and score and pass to open shooters. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs have shown that ability over and over this year. We have already learned that the Big East is a bit over rated which seems like a trend the last few years as Nova, Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame and Cinci are already out of the tournament. Syracuse will struggle in this game and the line is inflated due to their recent play including their blowout walk over Montana. They will be contending with a top 10 2 point defense in California.

Syracuse has not had good results against top 25 2 point defenses this year going just 3-5. 2 of the 3 wins were by a combined 5 points and one came in over time. California is holding it's last 5 opponents to 35.3% from the field and they just defeated a very good UNLV team that was ranked Top 25 in 2 point defense themselves, but Crabbe and Cobbs found a way to get easy baskets for their team and I see it happening here again. It will also benefit them playing the late game just 50 miles away from their campus. Syracuse will be playing in what feels like a road game here tonight.

Pistons +16 3.3* NBA POD
Call me crazy but I see a ton of value on the Pistons here as the heat come off an exhausting 4 game road trip. They are 0-5 ATS off 4game or more road trips this season and three of those games went to OT and the opponents are not very impressive with Charlotte, Cleveland, Toronto, Dallas, and Milwaukee. Detroit also just lost to Brooklyn at home in a blow out so the line is a bit inflated for obvious reasons. The Heat had to try really hard to win their last 2 games and they'll want to enjoy a couple of easy victories. Meanwhile the Pistons did beat this team at home earlier in the year and are on 3 days rest. I'm sure they were scheming in those 3 days just how they could beat the Heat. I don't think it will happen, but who thought the Cavs would be up 27 poitns on the Heat on Wednesday. The Heat have struggled of late blowing teams out like this as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams with a win % less than .400

Colorado +1.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
I like the Buffaloes here as I feel Illinois relies far too much on their three point shooting. They shoot the ball from beyond the arch 41.2% of the time and that just does not translate well on neutral court with shooting depth especially when you are only a 32.3% shooting team to begin with. Colorado is top 30 in 3 point defense on the road allowing just 30.4% and they are top 100 overall allowing 32.3% on the season. The Buffaloes also defend the paint well ranking 76th in 2 point defense while Illinois is 171st, and has allowed 56.6% over their last 3 games.

Illinois main scoring threat is Brandon Paul and I expect the Pac 12 defensive player of the year to be guarding him in Andre Roberson who has 3 inches on Paul and is also the nations second leading rebounder. That will be the difference in the game. Colorado will take the majority of their shots inside 71.3% of the time to be exact and that's where Illinois is vulnerable. Colorado also has a significant rebounding advantage in this game 52.2% rebounding percentage to Illinois 48.9%. The Buffs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten teams, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games while Illinois is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games.

Portland +6 3.3* NBA POD I see a lot of value here for the Blazers as they have been competitive on the road over their last 5. They lost by 7, 1, 2, and 6 to Memphis and beat the Spurs by 30. Portland is also 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning SU record while the Bulls are 10-23 in their last 33 home games. I also think the Bulls who have had 2 days off are going to struggle a bit after their tough loss to Denver in OT. They also have Indiana up next which is more of an important game at this point in the season. Chicago is 4-12 ATS this season on 2 days rest for whatever reason and allows a significantly more amount of points 100.4. That's bad news against Portland and Chicago has been struggling lately any how allowing 52.5% from 2 point range over their last 3 games. Portland can also knock down the three so they'll have more than one way to score in this game.

California +3.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
Cal and UNLV went toe to toe with each other earlier in the year in California's own building. UNLV won at the buzzer and they also beat Cal the year before. Cal was a -1.5 favorite then and now they are +3.5 on a neutral court so how much has changed? I don't think a ton has changed and I see a ton of value in Cal in this spot which is why I think they'll get their revenge. Cal has two of the more talented guards in their back court in Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs who can generate offense and create shots for others as well as themselves. UNLV had a hard time stopping them the first time as CAl shot 54.5% from 2 point range and 4-9 from beyond the arch. Expect more of this as Cal shut down UNLV holding them to 42.6% from the field.

Cal is 9th in the nation in 2 point defense 36.6% over their last 3 so don't be surprised if they win this game and get on a roll with these guards. A big part of why this team lost earlier in the year at home is they lost the rebounding battle by 10 as UNLV pulled down 13 offensive rebounds, yet they are 100th in the county in offensive rebounds. I don't expect Cal who is a decent rebounding team in their own right to be at that much of a disadvantage. They also shot 15-28 from the FT line and they are a better FT% team than UNLV 72.5% on the year and 80.2% on neutral court.

UNLV 7-15 ATS in their last 22 overall as the oddsmakers continue to over rate them. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a win % of greater than .600 and the dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two west coast teams. Add in that Cal is finally getting a region on the west coast and will play less than 2 hours away from Berkely.

StonyBrook +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD (1-5 SCALE)
I think we are catching some good value with one of the betst teams out of the American East Conference. Umass may be a little foggy after losing in the A10 semifinals to VCU and we already know how Vegas and the general public love the A10 so I do believe we are getting an inflated line. Just how good is StonyBrook? Well they are the first American East team in conference history to have all three player of the year awards. They have the freshmen of the year, player of the year and defensive POY.

In addition looking at the stats I see that Stonybrook's size could be a real issue for a Umass team that relies on their game inside the 3 point line and Stony Brook is 10th in the nation allowing just 42% from 2 point range on the season and they were better on the road at 41.9%. Umass is 136th and even worse in 2 point defense at home allowing 47.2%. Stonybrook is also +1.6 TO so they won't allow Umass to get out in transition on turnovers or rebounds. Granted they play in a weaker conference, but the size they have in their front line should give Umass head aches scoring and rebounding. In additiona Umass is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. I look for Stonybrook to win the game outright and move on to the next round of the NIT tournament.

Washington +6.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
This will be my one and only college play today until the regular neutral tournament starts, but I find tremendous value in this Washington team that has been here before. Washington got to the semi-finals in last years NIT tournament after being left out of the NCAA. I'd think they have a huge chip on their shoulder and they always seem to play up in these type of games as they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a win % above .600. BYU meanwhile has not played since March 8th which could really be an issue for them early. Both teams will shoot 2 pointers more often than 3's roughly at a 73% rate so 2 point defense will play a crucial factor. BYU is 184th in 2 point defense and has allowed 50% over their last 3. Washington is not much better at 143rd, but the athleticism and depth along the front line should give BYU issues. Offensively I like Washington's ability to runt he pick and roll, something that has given BYU issues when they've seen it this year. CJ Wilcox leads Washington and this is some sort of a home coming for him so I expect him to step up big in this game.

Celtics +5.5 5.5* NBA POD
I fully expect Garnett to dress for this game and I think the Celtics match up quite well with the Heat in terms of what the Heat's biggest weakness is which is scoring and keeping opponents from scoring in the paint. The Celtics would just love to end this run and they come into this game on some decent rest while the Heat are coming in on 0 days rest flying in from Toronto. That's a huge deal for a team that relies on their starting 5 to score 75% of their points. The Heat are actually just 5-6 ATS on 0 days rest and score their least amount of points which falls into the hands of the Celtics defense which is ranked 4th in 2 point % defense and is even better at home. That could be a major issue and it's no coincidence that the Heat are just 3-6 overall in road games against teams ranked in the top 10 currently in 2 point % defense. The Heat are also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at Boston and this line is inflated quite a bit because the books are tired of losing $ to Heat backer.s I love the Celtics to play this game like a playoff game tonight.

Raptors +8 NBA POD

[b]Mississippi +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
10.5 is a lot of points for a championship game and I see some value in the Rebels. Ole Miss can knock down the threes just like Florida who relies on the 3 ball way too much, but is shooting it less of late. I think Miss will get a little revenge from their road loss at Florida where they shot just 38% and lost by 14. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning % greater than .600 and the under dog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Syracuse +5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I like Syracuse in this spot after Louisville won the Big East Tournament a year ago when Syracuse should have. Syracuse is just on a roll right now with their offense especially from outside. As long as they can limit the turnovers against Louisville's pesky pressure defense and turn this game into a half court battle they should be able to win. Louisville's star Siva typically struggles vs. Syracuses zone defense and if he's not able to get out in transition it could be a long day for Louisville.

Twolves +14 +100 4* NBA POD (1-5 SCALE)
This is an interesting game because Minnesota is off a 16 point loss and Houston is off a 30 point win thus this line is a bit inflated in my opinion. Houston is 4-12 ATS in theri last 16 vs a team with a losing SU record. Reason? I think they tend to rest some of their stars more since 80% of their points come from their starting 5. Given that they have a huge game up next with the Warriors on Sunday they should be heavily motivated to do the same thing.

Meanwhile Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss of 10+ points. Despite their 16 point loss they actually scored 91 points vs. the best defense in the league. A game before they beat the Spurs who are another top defense and if you recall they were in a battle with Miami in the 4th quarter before Miami turned it on late to win comfortably. Minnesota will have an opportunity to stick around in this game because Houston's 2 point defense is suspect and that's where Minnesota will take a huge percentage of their shots 78% of them. Minnesota has lost just 1 game by more than 14 on the road vs. a team ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense and is 6-4 ATS. Houston ranks 22nd and add in that Houston takes too many 3 pointers they could easily struggle in a game. I look for the Twolves to stick around and continue to play spoiler.

Alabama +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Alabama is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Tennessee and they split hte season series overall on a 1 point game and a 3 point game. I think there is value here with Alabama they really should have been 2-0 against TN but they were robbed by a no foul call in the last game. Despite getting out rebounded in both of these meetings by a total of 32 they still held Tennessee in check. If Alabama can just come close to winning the rebounding battle they could win this game easily. Alabama does make up for the differential in rebounds by their ability to force turnovers and that's where Tennessee struggles. Overall these two teams are very similar on both sides, but I"m banking on Tennessee to struggle here. Alabama has gotten better and more production from younger players and Tennessee has really struggled offensively away from home.

Texas State +16 4.4* NCAAB POD
I think there is a lot of value in Texas State right now they are coming into this game with a lot of momentum after beating Seattle as a +3 yesterday. Texas State lost at Denver by 11 and 15 at home so this spread is right inside those numbers. Denver in both games shot better than their season averages while Texas State shot below their season averages. I expect those numbers to revert back to the mean here today. Ironically when both of these teams are on the road Texas State played the better defense FG% wise and in my opinion Denver is to reliant on the three ball where they are shooting nearly 50% of their shots. That's part of the reason they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. I expect this to be a close game with a playoff like atmosphere and for Texas State to carry their momentum into the game

Ball State +3 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD (Based on 1-5* scale)
I think Ball State + the points provides enough value in this situation as they finished the season on a nice winning streak winning 5 in a row and 3 of those wins came on the road as under dogs of +4.5, +9.5 and +6. They also have revenge after leading at half time at home against Buffalo. I think this team will have the advantage playing on the neutral court closer to home compared to Buffalo who has a longer travel to Cleveland.

Both teams playing on the road or neutral court and the splits for away/away are in the advantage of Ball State. Ball State is slightly better at rebounding and turnover margin as well as getting to the FT line more often. both teams rely on the 3 35%+ of the time and Ball State shoots 34.9% compared to Buffalo at 30.9%. Ball State's defense is better too from the perimeter.

2point defense is where Buffalo had the advantage during the regular season, but they have allowed 52% over thier last 3 while Ball State has allowed 47.7%. Buffalo is also 3-7 ATS following an ATS loss. I like how Ball State is playing of late and I think it's a trend that will continue into the MAC Tournament here tonight.

Wizards ML -110 4.4* NBA POD
This is an interesting match up of two polar opposite teams. The Wizards win with defense specifically from 2 point range where they are ranked 3rd in the league on the road and 6th overall, meaning they play better defense on the road and they are playing even better in their last 3 games. Meanwhile the Cavs are last in the league in 2 point defense. That's important because both teams shoot a bevy of 2 pointers per game at over 75% of their shots. Cleveland does not have their best perimeter shooter that led them to two victories over the Wizards this year to help them spread the court so I think the Wizards will finally get their revenge.

Cleveland at home vs. top 10 2 point defenses has not been pretty as they have gone 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. The Wizards on the road vs. teams ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense are 6-3 ATS winning many times SU as a dog.

Charleston +7 3.3* NCAAB POD (Based on 1-5* scale).
Davidson won by 9 and 16 and they were -9.5 and -3 favorites this year against Charleston. Really I feel that these two match up well and based on where the spreads were during the season Davidson is getting a couple extra points for this game seeing as it's on neutral court. I think there is great value in Charleston. Davidson is coming into this game quite confident, but Charleston is very well capable of shutting down an opposing offense. That's something they did not do in the two match ups against Davidson during the year but facing them for a third time they should be able to make adjustments.

After all Charleston has proven they are one of the better defenses in the country rankings 58th in 2 point defense and holding opponents under 29.8% from beyond the arch. Davidson shoots 40% of their shots from the perimeter so that could be a key here tonight. Charleston actually plays better defense on the road than Davidson does as well as offensively from a FG% aspect. When you add in that they are also getting more FTA and have a better rebound margin I think their -13 FTA and -10 rebound in the 2 match ups combined are bound to come back to each teams averages. Charleston is also playing better of late holding opponents to 35.5% form the field over their last 5 and are +12.2 rebounds as well.

Penn State +8.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Wisconsin just came off a tough road loss to Michigan State and they will be coming into this game a little beaten up and hung over and wanting to look ahead to the start of the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday. Penn State only has 2 conference wins all season, but have 2 of them in their last 3 games including a home win against Michigan. They nearly beat Iowa as a +8 a few days before.

Wisconsin is not a high power scoring team but win with defense so this to me is a lot of points for them on the road against anyone. Penn State who was -25 FTA and -11 turnovers in the first match up only lost by 9. I expect Penn State to improve on those numbers as they are only -1.2 FTA and +.7 TO at home. Penn State also plays good defense on the perimeter where Wisconsin will take 41% of their shots allowing just 32.4% from beyond the arch. They held Wisconsin to 3-17 from three in the first game and Wisconsin has struggled going 10-50 in their last 2 games from beyond the arch. I expect those struggles to continue here today.

Texas Tech +6 4.4* NCAAB POD
Texas is 1-9 on the road this year and they are 6 point road favorites? They beat Tech 73-57 at home and have plenty of confidence going into this match up and that's the time I like to fade a team. Tech was +6 rebounds, but -9 TO's and -6 FTA in the first match up while shooting just 37% and allowing 46.3%. I'm not shocked that they shot only 37% as they take 70% of their shots from inside the arch where Texas is a dominant force at home ranked 20th overall but allowing just 38.6%, but on the road they allow 46.8%. I think Tech will have an advantage there that will allow them to have a chance to win this game as Texas is also -2 turnovers, -.9 rebound and -10.3 FTA on the road where they only shoot 39.2% themselves. Texas just beat Baylor as a home dog and is likely looking towards the Big 12 tournament. I suspect Tech to get up for this in state rivalry game.

Warriors -1.5 5.5* NBA POD (1-5* SCALE)
The Rockets may be #1 in points per game but they'll have their hands full Friday night in an important game against the Warriors who would liket o hold their spot in the playoffs as they are a game up on the Rockets. The Warriors can score themselves so I see a lot of value in the -1.5 spread.

Houston just relies too much on the three point basket shooting it 35.2% of the time and they'll go up against the Warriors who defend better than many think. Golden State is 14th vs. the 2 point basket, but more importantly are ranked 7th against the 3 and ranked 4th at home allowing under 32% from 3. On the flip side the Warriors will shoot mostly two pointers 76% of the time in fact and the Rockets are suspect especially on the road.

The Rockets rank 22nd in 2 point defense and allow 50.3% on the road and are allowing 57.2% in their last three. The Warriors meanwhile have played 11 games against the bottom 12 teams in the leage in 2 point defense. In those games they have gone 9-2 and their victories have come by an average of 8.7 points. Warriors also have revenge in this game after losing at home to the Rockets earlier in the season.

Butler +2 3.3* NCAAB POD (Based on a 1-5* scale)
I like Butler in this spot despite their 6-4 record on the road as I believe this team is starting to get up for the last few games of their conference season in order to go into the post season with a head of steam. Umass on the other hand is content after beating Xavier as a road dog and could be getting just a little too much credit here.

In conference play one this is for sure Butler has the better defense. They are also +1.2 FTA to Umass -1.3, +6.4 rebounds to Umass +1.7, and turnovers they lose the battle at -3.8 to Umass -0.5. Butler actually plays better defense ont he road holding opponents to 39.5% shooting. Butler will rely on the 2 point game 70% of the time on the road and Umass has shown a difficult time of late defending the 2 ranking 138th in the nation at 46.6%, and 52.4% over their last 3. They are no better at home just 46%.

Butler on the other hand is ranked 82nd in 2 point defense allowing 45.1% and they allow the same % on the road. Ironically Umass is 10-3 at home and their 3 losses came to the hands of the three teams that play excellent defense on the inside. They lost to Temple who is ranked 145th overall, but plays about the same on the road as Butler holding opponents to 45% inside. They lost to George Washington who was ranked 52nd in 2 point defense and plays worse on the road than Butler and then they lost to Miami ranked 44th in the country and also holding opponents to 45.3%. There seems to be a common ingredient in Umass home losses and Butler has it.

Mavericks -1.5 3.3* NBA POD
Houston just beat Dallas by 33 points so they are not likely to take them seriously after out playing them and shooting 57.5% from the field going 41.2% from three, out rebounding by 13 and getting to the FT line +16 times. However, Dallas is not about to rollover as they are 5.5 games out of the playoffs. Meanwhile Houston has the Warriors up next and could be looking ahead considering the Warriors are 1 game up on them.

The thing I like in this game is Dallas relies much more on the 2 point game shooting 76% of their shots from there while Houston shoots 35% of their shots from three which normally does not transition well on the road. Houston actually struggles big time in defending the paint rankings 22nd ont he year. It just so happens the Mavericks are 10-2 SU and ATS at home against teams ranked 20th or worse in 2 point % defense.

Purdue +6.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Purdue is in an interesting spot in tonight's game with another chance to play spoiler against a top Big 10 opponent. They just knocked off Wisconsin on the road and have held their last 3 opponents to 33% shooting from the field. I see no hang over after beating Wisconsin because this team is not going to the NCAA Tournament. At this point they are taking one game at a time and looking to improve for next year, but if they win tonight all of a sudden this team could have a shot if they go deep in the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan on the other hand came off a huge win against their rival Michigan State by one point in a physical game something they are not accustomed to winning. They beat Purdue at home by 15 points the first time and likely won't take them seriously as they look ahead to facing Indiana with revenge at home on Saturday. This is your classic look ahead and Purdue does a lot of things well enough to win this game. In the first match up Purdue only shot 38.9% and were -3 FTA, -7 rebounds and -2 TO, while Michigan shot 49.1% and 43% from three. I don't see that happening Purdue actually has played better overall defense in conference play and at home they are holding opponents to 40.7% from 2 point range 31.6% from 3 point range. They are also +3.9 FTA, +7.5 rebound and +0.5 TO whiel Mich is -2.7 FTA, -1.1 rebounds. I like Purdue to have some success shooting the ball tonight too. They'll take 78.2% of their shots form inside the arch and that's where Michigan's weakness is defensively. The Wolverines are ranked 167th overall allowing 47.2% and 48% on the road. I see Purdue getting their revenge tonight.

Loyola +2.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Youngstown won 2 x this year by a combined total of 3 points against Loyola. Conference wise Loyola had the better season offensively and defensively by a pretty wide margin from a FG% perspective. They are also +2 rebound margin to Youngstown -5.2. Despite all of that they lost both times against Youngstown and easily could have won both games. In the first game they blew a 5 point lead and in the 2nd game they nearly came back from a 15 point half time deficit outscoring Youngstown 39-26 in the second half on their own court. I think Loyola will get the last laugh in the conference tournament in a close game.

Texas +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Baylor already beat Texas and just suffered a devastating loss on Saturday to Kansas State on their home court. They also have Kansas up next after this game so it's a hang over / look ahead game in my opinion, but Texas has been tough at home. Baylor had a hard enough time against them in the first match up winning in OT despite getting to the FT line 31 more times than the Longhorns. That won't happen on the road where they are -3.8 FTA and Texas is +3.5 FTA. Texas is also + in rebound margin even in TO margin while Baylor is negative in both categories.

I think my favorite stat is that Texas is ranked 4th overall in the nation in 2 point defense at home holding opponents to 38.4%. They are ranked 24th overall on the season and Baylor will have a hard time scoring from there and the perimeter where Texas is holding opponents to 26.8% from the field.

Hawks +5.5 -105 4* NBA POD
I like the Hawks in this game here. Not only do the Lakers have the Thunder up next in what should be a potential let down spot or look ahead, but they are 1-12 on the season vs. teams ranked in the top 7 in two point % defense. The Hawks are ranked 6th in two point % defense and play better two point defense on the road. Considering over 70% of the shots taken by both these teams will be from two point land this is an important statistic. The Hawks also have a better perimeter offense statistically overall and on the road vs. what the Lakers do at home. I think the Lakers should win the game, but 5.5 points is a lot of points and I think we are getting it because they just came off a big win vs. the Twolves while the Hawks just lost on the road to Phoenix as a 4 point favorite. This is a favorable spot with a lot of value.

Boston College +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I'm fading Virginia who is in a huge hang over game here. BC already has gone 5-0 ATS as a home dog this year and nearly beat Duke and Miami, losing by 1 point to both. They would love to get revenge against Virginia who beat them by 14 in the first meeting. The first game Virginia shot 56.2% from field and attempted 81% of their shots from two. BC is much better at defending the paint at home, roughly an 8.6% swing. BC should also get to the FT line a lot more and their offensive production can only go up from where they were in the first game where they shot just 36.2% from the field. Virginia's defense is not great on the road allowing 46.4%. Virginia is also 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games while BC is 17-8-1 ATS following a loss.

Miss State +12.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Celtics -4 -105 4* NBA POD (based on 1-5* rating)
I like the Celtics in this match up as this is the Warriors 3rd game in 4 nights after Curry played all 48 minutes vs. the Knicks. The Warriors also have to play again tomorrow making it 4 games in 5 nights meanwhile the Celtics are well rested.

Boston is on 3+ days rest where their offense has flourished this year. They need wins right now to climb the playoff ranking ladder or to get in so you know they are going to come with their best defensive effort. Meanwhile they don't play for another couple days. Speaking of defense the Celtics are ranked 9th in shooting defense. The Warriors are just 3-8 on the road this year vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in shooting defense. Those 3 wins came really early in the season 2 in November and 1 on December 8th vs. the Wizards.

All 8 losses have been by more than 4. 11, 25, 6, 21, 7, 16, 26 and 9 points. I expect the Celtics to come out and dominate here tonight. They are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors defense continues to slip especially on the road and especially in the paint where they have allowed over 50.5% over their last 3 games. The Celtics take nearly 80% of their shots inside the arch and should dominate here tonight.

Seattle +1 4.4* NCAAB POD
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and they go up against Texas State who beat them in Seattle the last time these two met. Both are similarly bad in conference play with losing records so this game is all about revenge. I see Seattle as the better team when you look at conference stats they are only -4.9 points per game while Texas State is -11.9. Seattle is also +2.5 FG% as they are shooting better than opponents in conference play while Texas State is -8.5 FG% in that department. Seattle is also +5 rebound margin while Texas State is -10 rebound margin. Texas State has not played well at home either where they are -8.9 points. Seattle

Connecticut +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
I looked over about 8 games and I only liked this one. First of all Georgetown is coming off a huge win at Syracuse and now their ranking is a bit inflated. Uconn meanwhile has been playing lights out and continue to play hungry. UConn has 3-0 at Gampel vs. Georgetown where they don't normally play. Gampel will have more energy than when they play at the XL Center tonight and should be a great environment. On the other hand Georgetown has lost 6 of their last 7 visits to Uconn by an average of 22 points.

I think we get a mix of Georgetown playing a little hung over with too much confidence. Also Uconn's greatest weakness which is rebounding is not a real strength of Georgetown who is -1.6 over their last 5 games and ranked 131st in rebounding %. Uconn meanwhile is uncharacteristic of their past teams shooting 74% from the FT line at home and is getting to the line +7.1 times vs. opponents. They also should win the turnover margin with their guard play and if they continue shooting the ball like they have of late they should cruise.

[b]Kings +15.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I don't recommend watching this game as I'm sure the Heat will control the entire game, but lets be honest the Oddsmakers are about 2 points off here and they should inflate the number as the Kings are 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games vs. the Heat 1-10 ATS in Miami. However, the Kings have turned it up a little against tough competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a winning team. More than anything this game should get the most out of Demarco Cousins who will have the advantage in the Heat. The Heat also lack a guy that can guard Isiah Thomas as he showed in the first match up where the Kings lost by 29 points. The Kings will want to play for a little respect right here.

On the other hand the Heat have been looking ahead to the Grizzlies who they lost by 20 to in November and have a game with the Knicks following that. This team is not mentally checked in for this game. There is no way they can be against a team they beat on the road (in recent memory) by 29 points. Players are most likely planning their next two days off and looking ahead to the two playoff teams they have on schedule. I like this play a lot and I think we are getting a ton of value. I mean if the Heat cover this what is next? 20 point favorites for games?

Minnesota +5.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Indiana beat Minnesota by 7 points at home when the two were still in the top 10. Now Indiana is clearly the #1 team but they are going on the road after just defeating Michigan State. Minnesota is a desperate team playing for their NCAA Tourney lifes. Indiana is full of confidence and they should be having just beat Michigan State on the road. However, I think there might be one more stop in the Gophers. They beat Wisconsin and Michigan State at home why not Indiana?

In the first match up they were -25 FTA and -3 rebounds. They also allowed Indiana to shoot 50.9% from the field. Getting back to playing at home should allow them to improve on those numbers where they are +16.1 ppg. Minnesota is also holding opponents to 37.6% from the field and is +13 in rebound margin +8.2 in FT attempts. This games comes down to defense inside the arch where both teams take 70% of their shots. Both are ranked in the top 30 in the nation in 2 point defense. Minnesota however allows opponents just 40.2% in home games while Indiana is allowing 43.7%. Offensively Minnesota is also playing better inside the arch in the home/away splits. Stats are not everything but I think it's enough to justify getting 5.5 points. I think there is a lot of value on a desparate Minnesota team here tonight and I think they will capitalize and have a chance to win the game.

Twolves +2.5 3.3* NBA POD
Many may see this line and jump all over the Warriors. In fact 70% of the public are thinking just that, but I can possibly back the Warriors on the road as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 and I already mentioned in my article on the 2nd half that Warriors would come down. I had the Warriors +4 on Friday as our NBA POD and won. Now I'm fading the Warriors after they just upset the Spurs. This is a major hang over game for them and with upcoming games against the Knicks and the Pacers I see them peaking ahead and not taking the Timberwolves seriously. Meanwhile Minnesota just came off a double digit loss to the Thunder and are 19-7 ATS following a SU loss of 10+ points.

Cincinnati +3 3.3* NCAAB POD
Cinci lost the first match up by 6 at home due to the fact that they allowed Notre Dame to shoot 50% fromt he field and 9-16 from three point land. That is not usually the theme of this Bearcats team that preaches defense by their head coach Mick Cronin. I look for the Bearcats to come up with a huge win here today on the road. They are losers of 4 of their last 5 games and need a win badly to continue their quest to the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame meanwhile is off a big win at Pitt where they were +10.5 under dogs. Cinci 16-6 ATS in their alst 22 road games, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss.

Nova -1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Villanova is 10-4 at home playing Marquette who is just 3-5 on the road. Both play similar styles in conference play so what separates them is their ranking which we benefit from in this situation because we are getting Nova at home with value in my opinion. Marquette will take nearly 71% of their shots from two point land and that falls into Nova's strengths where they are ranked 19th in the country in 2 point defense. Marquette on the other hand is ranked 75th in that department.

Nova's biggest weaknesses however are turnovers and three point defense. We already touched on Marquette's ability to knock down threes and how often they take them. Marquette is also -2.1 turnover margin in their road games so I think this will give Nova the edges they need to come up with a big win today.

Warriors +4 3.3* NBA POD
You'll find this line up to 4 in some places and I grabbed it. The Spurs coming off a huge victory in dominating fashion vs. the Clippers last night now they go on the road again as they continue this ridiculous road trip to face the Warriors. The Warriors ended the All Star break playing terrible defense, but they are still ranked 9th in the league in shooting % defense and I think that will give the Spurs trouble coming off a game where they had the adrenaline flowing.

The Warriors will have revenge from their 7 point loss in San Antonio. The Warriors have been a tough opponent at home and have beaten many of the top playoff teams. The Clippers twice, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers, Nuggets, Nets and Hawks to name a few. The Spurs play their 2nd worst defense on 0 days rest which could be an issue against the Warriors who can light up the scoreboard at home. I expect this to be one of those games the Spurs realize they don't absolutely need after getting up for their game last night. Most of the players already making plans to go back home Sunday night after they play the Suns.

Princeton -2 -102 3.3* NCAAB POD
Columbia beat Harvard at home, but other than that they have not been a very good home team. They were -13 against Dartmouth and lost, and then -8 vs. Cornell and lost. Princeton is sitting in 2nd place with games ahead vs. Cornell and Harvard. Those are exactly the two teams that stand in their way to get to the NCAA Tournament. Princeton is smart enough not to look ahead to those games as they need to win tonight and they are the superior team. Normally I would fade Princeton in this spot looking ahead, but now all these games are critical and what exactly is Columbia playing for?

I think the fact that Columbia nearly beat PRinceton on the road will be enough for Princeton to take them seriously. Statistically on the road Princeton has some solid number including shooting 41% from three, but over 70% of their shots will come from inside. Columbia is ranked 120th in 2 point defense, but they are worse at home and over their last 3 are allowing opponents to shoot 57.4%. Princeton has been solid over the years especially after a loss. They are 22-6 ATS following an ATS loss, 21-7 ats L28 foll a SU loss. 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 Friday nights.

Oregon State +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Oregon State seeks revenge coming off a loss where they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss. Stanford beat them the first time, but I have a feeling this game could be different as Stanford shot 56% from three at home in that game. Stanford shoots well on the season, but could struggle on the road where Oregon State is defending the perimeter (32.5%) a lot better. Oregon State is also + in FTA rebound margin and even turnovers. So I expect them to turn that around in this game. Stanford shoots just 41.1% overall from the field on the road and could have major issues scoring if they can not hit the three. Stanford is also looking ahead to their road game at Oregon on Saturday. Look ahead could be part of the reason why they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 Thursday games.

Texas Tech +10 4.4* NCAAB POD
This is a great spot for Tech in my opinion Oklahoma is just 4-5 on the road yet they already beat Tech handily at home and won't be looking seriously at this game. Meanwhile they just lost to their rival in OT and have Baylor up next. This is an interesting sandwich game for them that they will not take seriously. Tech on the other hand tend to stay around in games and in the first match up they were -13 FTA and -5 TO two things that will chagne in this game. Texas Tech biggest reason for not winning more at home has been their ability to defend the three pointer. Luckily for them they face a team that does not bother attempting much from there just 23% of their shots will come from three and whent hey do take them they don't make them only 29%. The fact that Tech does not turn the ball over much will make this a close game throughout in my opinion. Oklahoma is also just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Evansville +1 2.2* bonus
Another interesting spot for the road team. Illinois State won already against Illinois State, but they come into this game after losing against Wichita State by just 1 point at home. Major hang over spot here as they face a team they already beat. They also have a non conference bracket buster game up next vs. Utah State. Evansville was -18 FTA int he first match up and still only lost the game by 5 as a +7 dog. There is a reason they are 12-3 at home. Illinois State could have major issues turning the ball over in this game too. Illinois State just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at Evansville who almost beat Creighton here in their last game.

Boston College +1.5 5.5* NCAAB POD Maryland comes off a huge victory over Duke at home and there are ton of distractions despite what their fans did after the game. Right now this team is due for a huge hang over in this game against a BC team that has done some good things. For one they already nearly beat Miami and Duke losing by just 1 point in both of those games. Maryland already beat BC at home by 5 points and BC played poorly in that game shooting just 35% from the field and even worse 58% form the FT line. That won't happen at home I expect Ryan Anderson to also have a better game. Maryland on the other hand turns the ball over 15.5 times on the road and rarely force any turnovers. They won't shoot 42% from three like they did in game 1 as they are shooting just 29% from three on the road. I was very impressed with the way BC played defense against Duke in their last home game and I think they can duplicate that here tonight and get a big win.

Bucknell +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Both teams are 8-2 in conference play and when you look at Bucknell is the better team. They did lose this match up at home as a 7 point favorite, but Lehigh shot 10 for 18 from three point range. I don't see that happening here today as Bucknell is not only 4th in 2 point defense in the nation, but on the road they defend the perimeter really well allowing 29.6%. Lehigh just 214th in 2 point defense and they are also 282nd in total rebounding% where Bucknell is 24th in rebound %. With revenge on Bucknell's mind I expect them to win this game outright.

Clemson +6 4.4* NCAAB POD
Clemson is a tough opponent on their own court and Miami will be in for a real test today. Clemson is ranked 31st int he nation in two point defense and Miami's offense really has not been tested on the road until today. If you recall this is a team that struggled on the road against Boston College. Clemson really needs this victory for any hopes at a post season and facing the #3 team in the nation is something to be excited for the home crowd. I also like that this game is on a Sunday and that Miami has Virginia up next which is more of a serious game for the Hurricanes being that Virginia is 3rd in the ACC. I see Clemson being able to shock Miami today. While they may not win they are going to give Miami issues.

Nebraska +9.5 4.4* POD; Nebraska +425 1* bonus

This is an interesting spot for the Spartans who just beat their rival in Michigan in dominating fashion. Next they have Indiana back at home who they lost to earlier in the year. This is an odd spot for a road trip to play Nebraska a team they don't have any kind of rivalry with. Nebraska on the other hand is looking to be taken seriously in the league still and have revenge after they lost to Michigan State on the road by 10. The one thing Nebraska has going for them is their defense. They actually play better defense from a FG% perspective in conference play than Michigan State which is saying a lot. Nebraska at home is even better where they allow opponents to shoot just 39.3% compared to Michigan State's 44.5% on the road.

Nebraska won't allow Michigan State to get out in transition as they are only turning the ball over 9.9 times a game and only allowing opponents 49.9 FGA so I expect this game to be your typical Big Ten match up with Nebraska having a real shot in the end at pulling off the upset at home with Michigan State looking ahead to their big match up with Indiana.

Manhattan +2.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Iona beat Manhattan at home by 8 as 13 point favorites but really the only difference was Iona shooting 10-16 from three and being +11 in FTA and +6 in turnovers. Manhattan out rebounded them by 10 and shot 48.2% from the field. IN conference play these teams are literally identical as far as raw stats go. Manhattan will pick up their defense in this game and give Iona issues especially at home where they only allow opponents to shoot 26.7%. Iona who will chuck up 20+ three points nearly 40% of their shots is just 32% on the road. Different ball game here as Manhattan wins.

Colorado +2.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
Huge revenge game here for the Buffaloes and they are at home against a ranked team in the national spot light. They nearly beat Arizona on their own court, but a 3 that won it at the buzzer by Sabatino Chen was later called back because his finger was still on the ball as time expired. They ended up losing in OT and this happened after they led by 16 with 12:40 left and 8 with 1:35 left. Colorado plays better at home and Arizona could be in a little bit of a hang over spot after losing to Cal in shocking fashion. Playing at elevation is never easy and Arizona is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. PAC 12. I think we are getting a lot of value especially since Colorado is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a win % > .600.

Penn State +7.5 (2.2* bonus)
Nothing great separates these two teams and Penn state lost by just 2 on the road despite being -23 FTA and -9 rebounds and -4 TO. Those three things won

[b]Rockets +10.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Rockets are a pretty decent team and the Clippers just played awesome back to back games on the road to beat the slicers and Knicks but come home after the long road trip and have a game tomorrow night against their rival Lakers. This is an interesting sandwich game and I could see the Clippers slipping up or slacking off in the fourth while theRockets will cover.

[b]Texas +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Texas really needs this game to jump start their season at any hopes of any post season action. Iowa State is 2-6 on the road 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and already beat Texas at home by 20 points. Iowa State relies on the three a ton shooting 43.5% of their shots from their. At home against Texas they dominated shooting 11-26 from there. That won't happen again as Texas defense the perimeter better than most teams in the nation only allowing 22.3% from three at home and 28.2% in conference play. Overall they only allow teams to shoot a combined 31.9% from the field. Iowa State will have issues scoring here and they won't get to the FT line 14 more times than the Longhorns like they did at home. This is a revenge game for Texas and this is a team that has played really well at home at times nearly beating Kansas earlier this year.

Manh +8 4.4* pod

[b]Bobcats +4 3.3* NBA pod[/b]
I think there is value here with the bobcats facing an older Boston team here tonight on 0days rest and after playing in 3 ots last night. They also are still playing without Rondo and they have the bulls up next.

Celtics -2 5.5* NBA POD

[b]BC +12 4.4* NCAAB POD BC +625 1* Bonus[/b]
Duke has their biggest rival up next in UNC and now they have to travel Sunday morning instead of Saturday night to play Boston College. BC should be ready for this game in a unique environment because of the blizzard that hit the Northeast. I expect a pretty energized crowd. BC is 2-7 in conference play but they are only losing by an average margin of 4.9 points. 43% of their shots come from three and Duke is clearly vulnerable on the road allowing opponents to shoot 37.3%. I can see BC getting hot at the right time here. Duke also relies on the three but on the road they shoot 30.7%.

Boston is 15-7-1 ATS following an ATS loss as they lost to Miami in Miami who had revenge. BC has been good at home they nearly beat Miami as +6 and NC State as +7. 12 points is a lot for Duke in this spot and if BC can get hot from three they could pull out a shocker.

3.3* pod

Memphis +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I feel their is some good value here on Memphis. For one this is the best defensive team Southern Miss will play all year and that could be a problem. They are just 4-4 vs. teams ranked in the top 103 in the country in 2 point % defense. Memphis is 18th and 10th on the road in 2 point defense where most of Southern Miss shots come from. Even in their 4 wins vs. those top teams they never won by more than 4 points. Memphis in my opinion does not drop off on the road where they are 5-0 and they know this could decide the conference here today. Memphis should get to the line more as they have all year +8.7 FTA compared to Southern Miss -5.5 FTA. Southern Miss is also just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. the Conference USA.

Wizards -1.5 3.3* NBA POD

Yale +1 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Yale in this spot they are 16-7 ATS following an ATS loss while Penn is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a losing team. Penn is beat up by injuries and they'll have troubles tonight rebounding the ball with Fran Dougherty injured again. Dougherty was their one bright spot as they are 306th in rebounding %. Yale meanwhile is 133rd and has been rebounding even better in recent weeks with a 53.7% in their last 3 games. I see them winning this game tonight.

4.4* play

Pistons -1.5 3.3* NBA POD
I like the Pistons in this spot, the Brooklyn Nets are not playing good basketball and they will likely be a little hung over from their effort against the Lakers where they came up short just last night. They are clearly disappointed in that game and the Pistons are the type of team that gives them issues. The Pistons are among the best in defense ranked 10th in opponent shooting %. The Nets are just 2-7 vs. teams ranked in the top 11 and beat Detroit by only 2 in OT at home. I think the Pistons will have some revenge on their mind and they are clearly playing better ball right now. The Nets have eclipsed 100 points only 1 time in their last 10 games and on 0 days rest they allow their most points. Pistons have averaged 102.4 points in their last 5 home games. Detroit is also 8th in total rebound % and has won 42 of 47 at home against the Nets who clearly do not like paying here.

Ravens +4 5.5* NFL POD; U48 3.3* Bonus
Honestly this game to me comes down to a coin flip. You can read my blog articles to get my feeling on all the break downs and match ups if you need more betting confidence. I see tremendous value on getting more than a FG in this game where the battles seem to be very even to me. A few things do stick out especially what Baltimore has had to do to get to this point and who they beat to get here, but overall I think the Ravens will be in position to win this game. They have a more experienced QB in Joe Flacco who does not get rattled by anything and wants to prove he's an elite QB so he can get paid in the off season. There is potentially millions riding on this game for Flacco and the Ravens should be able to put together a gameplan on defense to stop this hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick. If I am wrong I'll tip my cap to him, but I think with two weeks to prepare the Ravens will be ready.

Some interesting advantages for Baltimore are special teams and red zone efficiency. First ofa ll nobody missed more FG's than David Akers this year. They were 31st in FG %, and he's only 50% over the last three games. Meanwhile Baltimore is 100% in the post season and 5th overall with a 91.43%. Both teams are similar in third down conversion offense and defense and have played similar teams, but the real difference comes in the red zone.

Not only are the Ravens finally healthy but they are dominating opponents in the red zone and good ones at that. They've held the last three opponents to 40% TDs in the red zone and two of those teams were ranked 3rd and 6th overall. Baltimore is 2nd overall and with the 49ers not having many options at WR and Baltimores ability to not allow TD's to TE (2 all year) I love their chances of continuing this success. The 49ers on the other hand well they were ranked 27th in the regular season and allowed 72% conversions in the red zone on the road. They've had issues stopping opposing TE's in the zone and the Ravens have a good one in Pitta and some could even say Anquan Boldin is like a TE. Offensively Baltimore has converted 80% of their red zone chances but they will also stretch the field with Torrey Smith. San Francisco was ranked just 15th in red zone offense. Kaepernick is going to have to make plays in the red zone and he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. There is a lot he has not seen in the NFL and I'm sure Baltimore will have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Wofford +8 5.5* NCAAB POD
Davidson getting a little too much credit here as they'll face off against the #1 scoring defense in the Southern Conference in Wofford. The fact that Davidson relies on the three so much and Wofford has allowed just a 26.2% at home makes me believe Wofford could have a shot to win this game. Wofford outscored Davidson in the second half on an earlier season meeting as they lost 56-63 at Davidson. A team that shoots a ton of threes on the road is not going to win rebound margin and that's where Wofford could win this game. They are also getting to the line more frequently than opponents and they don't turn the ball over. These are all recipes for pulling off the upset. Davidson is just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and Wofford is 12-4 ats in their last 16 home games. This is a hidden gem in the many games going on this Saturday

4.4* pod

TX San Antonio +8.5 4.4* NCAAB POD; TX San Antonio +355 1* play
Denver nearly shoots 50% of their shots from three and they are not very good at it on the road shooting just 30% beyond the arch. Now Texas San Antonio already lost by 25 at Denver, but this is a revenge game and a long way to travel for Denver. In that game Denver shot 53.1% from the field and 47% from three. That won't happen again tonight and if we look at the other stats TX San Antonio actually out rebounded them by 8 and were +14 in FT attempts. TX is playing better ball winning 3 ATS as big time dogs winning two outright. I would not be shocked to see them win the game tonight considering Denver will also lose the FTA and rebound margin here tonight.

DePaul 3.3* pod

Ole MIss -2.5 3.3** NCAAB POD
This game should be a tight one, but Miss has a lot to prove and show at home with the national spotlight against a young Kentucky team. Kentucky goes up against the best defense they have faced all year and they have struggled against the top 100 defensive teams they have faced. The Rebels are ranked 22nd in effective field goal % defense and Kentucky has struggled against Louisville 75th, Notre Dame 92nd, and Bama 93rd. I look for the same story line here as Miss is 5th in points per game on the season and has been a juggernaut at home. They should dominate free throw attempts and points as well as turnovers as Kentucky is 92nd in the nation in turning the ball over with a 20.3% of possessions on the road. Meanwhile Miss has been forcing 20+ at home and is ranked 14th with a 26.8% of opponent possessions ending in a TO. Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 and may not be ranked, but there is no way MIssissippi will be overlooking Kentucky who are the defending National Champions.

Cavs +1.5 5.5* NBA POD Kylie Irving has the Cavs playing some good basketball and the Warriors are playing their 4th game in just 5 days and they are short handed again. Curry and Bogut I believe will likely be out of this game but if they start I still feel comfortable with the Cavs covering and winning this game. Cavs have won 4 of their last 5 games including their last three straight up as under dogs.

E. Wash -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Both Portland State and Eastern Washington have been struggling to find wins, but Eastern Washington should get one tonight being that they are home. Eastern Washington shoots 43.5% of their shots from three point rangea nd it just happens that Portland State is terrible defending the triple ranked 335th and their are only 3 teams worse than they are at defending it on the road where they allow opponents to shoot 42.4%. Ironically Eastern Washingtons three wins at home have come against teams ranked in the bottom in effective FG % defense in Idaho State (282nd), Northern Arizona (324th), and Cal Fullerton (322nd) and Portland State is worse than all of them ranking 333rd. Eastern Washington has also proven they can play good defense in conference play holding opponents to 39.8% from the field. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and I expect them to be 8-1 after tonight.

Magic +9.5 3.3* NBA POD I think we are getting tons of value here with the Magic since the Nets are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and are looking ahead to their showdown at home against the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Orlando meanwhile has been having their own problems losing 5 straight up and ATS and now we catch some major value. The Nets don't deserve to be laying 9.5 points the way they've been playing. For one they have been dominated in the paint and they could have issues again tonight as the Magic are 10th in 2 point offense % wise. Brooklyn has already beaten the Magic 3 times so I doubt they'll take them too seriously in this one. Expect the Nets to be a little laid back int his one just coming off a 4 game road trip their longest of the season. The Nets are 6-15-2 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100+ points in previous game.

Missouri State -1 5.5* NCAAB POD
Drake is just 2-4 on the road this year and lost by 12 on their own court earlier to Missouri State. Drake getting some extra credit here after beating ranked Creighton in their last game and I think there is potential for a major hang over here as they have allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field and 40.7% form 3 in their road games. MIssouri State has played much better in conference play and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the MIssouri Valley Conference while Drake is 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Auburn +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Great spot for Auburn at home on a Saturday night to pull a major upset against a very good and ranked Mississippi team. Ole Miss may be peaking ahead to Tuesday night when they'll host Kentucky followed by a big match up with Florida to follow. Ole Miss is struggling of late to score as they shot just 36.7% from the field on Thursday so I feel this team is very vulnerable right now. Auburn's ability to force turnovers at home get to the FT line more than opponents and win the rebound margin are all reasons why I'm confident you could even see Auburn pull the upset tonight. Auburn after all has won the last two meetings at home as an under dog and are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games as well as 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 vs. the SEC.

Wizards +2 3.3* POD

Mavericks +1 (4.4* NBA POD)
The Mavericks won

W. Carolina +8 2.2* bonus play
Davidson has never been a good road team partially because they rely on the three pointer way too much. Theya re 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. West Carolina lost to Elon in their last home game as a favorite and will look to redeem themselves. They play great defense from the perimeter ranking 55th in the country holding opponents to 30.6%. In conference plays these two teams are pretty close as West Carolina

Bradley +7.5 2.2* BONUS
I like Bradley in this spot against Evansville again both of these teams are very similar and neither one of them rebounds the ball well. 7.5 points is a lot of value especially since Evansville has not been a dominating home team allowing opponents to shoot better from the floor 46.2% than their % of 45.2. They also are only +.2 in rebound margin and Bradley can be efficient with the perimeter game shooting 40% from the field in conference play while Evansville has given up 40% in conference play from 3. That should be enough to allow Bradley to cover.

New Mexico State -1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Denver has the losing record on the road at 3-5 to New Mexicos 9-1 record at home. Denver has played better in conference play outscoring opponents by nearly 14 while New Mexico is at 4.1, but Denver relies too much on three pointers which does not transition well on the road. In fact they are shooting nearly 50% of their shot attempts from three point range thus they are one of the worst rebounding teams and they are going up against one of the best rebounding teams in New Mexico state ranked 7th best in home rebounding % while there are only 13 teams worse than Denver in rebounding % on the road. New Mexico St should dominate in the paint as Denver is ranked 143rd in 2point % defense. Until Denver proves they can shoot the ball from 3 on the road I

Clippers +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Clippers were clearly looking ahead to this game after losing last night in Golden State while the Thunder have played in back to back OT games on the road. The Clippers are 19-4 at home and all 4 of their losses are against subpar teams. This team always seems to muscle up for the big opponents beating the Grizzlies, Spurs, Heat, Bulls, Nuggets, Celtics, and Jazz at home. The dog is 10-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Thunder are 2-5 ats in the last 7 meetings. I think we get some value here because of the Clippers are on 0 days rest, but I think they have a significant advantage with this game being at home at 10:30pm when the Thunder are not used to playing. Right now these are the two favorite for the conference finals and the Clippers would like to make a statement.

Alabama +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I really like Alabama here in this spot as Kentucky is now 1-6 ATS in their last 7 in conference play. You bet Alabama wants to defeat Kentucky who is a young team once again and now they are continuing to get too much credit in my opinion. They'll have to play a style of basketball they are not accustomed to as the Tide love to throw 4 guards on the court and go up tempo. Now Kentucky definitely has the talent and athleticism, but they did lose to Texas A&M a team that uses a similar approach at times. I also like Alabama's ability to win the turnover battle as they are +3 at home to Kentucky's -4 turnover margin at home. I believe Alabama's guards will out play Kentucky's for a quality win as a home dog.

Bulls -1 3.3* NBA POD
With or without Luol Deng I think the Bulls should win this game the way the Lakers are playing right now. The team

Georgetown +6 3.3* NCAAB POD
Georgetown will have an advantage in the paint on Monday and Notre Dame is struggling right now. They lost consecutive games at home before winning on Saturday, but this is a team that looks lost when they don

Nuggets +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
Denver definitely looking ahead to this game after losing Friday night at home to the Wizards as a 10.5 point favorite. Now the public is backing the Thunder to the tune of 70% and the line is not moving much. Denver plays up to the competition at home already beating the Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs and Lakers. The Thunder will have a tough time after allowing over 100 points in their game on Friday night. Denver is 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in previous game. The Thunder were lucky to get by the Mavericks and now Russell Westbrook will face a team that's better on defense than the Mavericks.

Falcons +4 5.5* NFL POD; Falcons +185 3* play; U49.5 2.2* play
So it seems hard to find anyone to be on the Falcons, but I am once against this week. Everyone thinks what the 49ers did to the Packers is going to happen again. I think the public is over reacting to one game here. For one the 49ers unleashed their pistol package running out of it 45% of the time in that game while they ran just 7 times in the last two games of the season. The Falcons should be able to put a game plan together that can defend against it. After all Colin Kaepernick is not that experienced playing in this type of environment. I look for the Falcons to bring their safeties up and also blitz the 49ers quite a bit trying to force Kaepernick into mistakes. The 49ers have struggled at times on the road and particularly in domes where they were just 1-2 this year. There are many reasons for that and one of them is their pass protections still is not very good ranked 28th on the season in sack% allowed while the Falcons are ranked 7th and Matt Ryan was not sacked a single time against the Seahawks who have a pretty good pass rush in their own right.

I think the banged Smith's on the DL will finally catch up to this team on the road this week. Much of the public was on the Packers last week and now many are running to bet on them given how the Falcons almost gave up their big lead to Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do face a stiff task against the 49ers, but the 49ers are facing the best group of receivers they have all year long and you can not forget about the TE. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done and there were only 6 teams that gave up more TD's to TE's this year than the 49ers. That should be a huge key here as the 49ers just were not very good in the red zone on the road. In fact they were dead last allowing 79% TD's in the red zone. The Falcons on the other hand were ranked 5th on the season allowing 46.81% TD's in the red zone and the 49ers offense only scoring 48% TD's in the red zone on the road.

That's another reason why I like the under in this game despite the total going over 15-4-1 in the last 10 years in championship games. But I think this total is quite high considering the Falcons have only allowed 1 team to score more than 30 points all year long. The 49ers usually came back with a dud after scoring more than 30 points or more this season including a combined 29 points after BUF/NO/NE. I'm not suggesting that will happen again here, but playing on the road in a dome in a loud environment is no easy task for a first year QB. Don't expect to see what we saw last week as I can see the Falcons holding on for a win.

Grizzlies -125 5.5* NBA POD
Got to love the Grizzlies tonight. Both teams are on 0 days rest and without arguably their best players in Luol Deng and Zach Randolph. Grizzlies seem to have the better defensive team despite both being in the top 10 in defense efficiency. I like the Grizzlies ability to play on short rest and the Bulls just came off an emotional victory in Boston last night that took OT to get there. Memphis is actually 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games on 0 days rest and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes so they are used to playing well in these type of situations.

The Bulls also have the Lakers up next and played Boozer and Noah over 40 minutes last night. Those two guys are the key to their defensive intensity and I think they'll struggle with the athletic Grizzlies tonight who are ranked 2nd in defense efficiency. The Bulls have not fared well against good defense teams going just 1-8 straight up against teams ranked in the top 7 in defense efficiency. They already lost and were held to a season low 71 points in a loss to Memphis.

Texas +9 4.4* NCAAB POD; Texas +340 1*bonus
Texas has a very talented back court that can lead them to victory here at home. Thus far they are winless in the Big 12 so they'd love to get that out of the way and what better time than against #4 ranked team in the country on national television. Kansas comes into this game very confident just blowing out Baylor 61-44 at home, but on the road they have not been nearly as good. Texas meanwhile has been one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and hold opponents under 30% shooting in their home games where they beat North Carolina handily as +4.5 under dogs. I think the Texas back court will be the difference today led by Sheldon McClllellan, Julien Lewis and Javan Felix, but they will win this game with defense.

***Bonus Play***
4 point teaser
Texas A&M +11.5 with Arizona State +11 3.3* play

Mavericks +6 4.4* NBA POD; Mavericks +200 .5* play I think there is just too much value here to not play this game especially the way the Mavericks have been playing winning their last 3 at home and holding opponents to 39% from the field. Dallas have given Russell Westbrook fits in Dallas as he only averaged 16 points in two games here last year and 35.5% shooting. I think this Mavericks team is rounding into form with a healthy Dirk Nowitzki and I think they will look to make a statement here tonight after losing in OT in December on the road to the Thunder with Dirk coming off the bench in just his second game. The dog is 21-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.