Dayton +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Still a live for a top 4 seed in the A-10 conference which will get them a bye with the rest of the teams.

Youngstown State -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
This will be the third time these two meet this season with the season series split on home and away.

South Florida -2 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
South Florida is not getting any respect in my opinion because of their SOS out of conference play, but very quietly they are among the best in the Big East and we can see them make a statement Sunday and in their remaining 2 games of the season as they close against three quality teams. At home vs. Cinci is their most winnable game in my opinion and I think they match up well with Cinci who is also 10-5 in conference play but a closer look and we see who the better team is.

These stats are just their conference numbers and for what it's worth South Florida is that much better at home. Don't think these stats matter? USF just was on the road at Syracuse and held a double digit lead and they also held the Orange to just 56 points. They have hte Big East #2 scoring defense and they are #4 in FG% defense while Cinci is 9th in FG% defense in Big East play. The bigger surprises is the offense which is ranked 3rd in FG% offense because they don't take a lot of three pointers. This is a very balanced and unselfish team. They are also #2 in FT% at .738 while Cinci is dead last at .648 and they are also last in FG% offense. South Florida will have to defend the perimeter, but they should have no issues with that either.

Lastly emotionally Cinci has a feeling of accomplishment beating Louisville at home their last time out. Everyone is giving them high fives and sending them to the NCAA tournament. South Florida is the team that feels disrespected. We already know the character issues that Cinci has so I think this is hard spot for them especially since they may be looking ahead to their home battle with Marquette who they desperately want revenge on from their earlier loss. Cinci is just 5-27 ATS in their last 32 Sundays while South Florida is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. I think South Florida takes this game by double digits.

Connecticut +5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
Syracuse recently beat Uconn 85-67 at home, but the game was much closer as it was 63-61 with about 6 minutes remaining before Syracuse closed out the game on a 22-6 run. Syracuse uncharacteristically shot 62.5% from three and 59.3% overall. That will not happen again. The Huskies allow just 35% from the field in home games this season and this game will be at Gampbel Pavilion on campus where they rarely play big games like this. Syracuse has never won. Normally Uconn plays off campus at a bigger arena in Hartford. However, it's more of an advantage and more excitement when this team plays on campus. I expect them to be pumped up in this game and defense will be the key to their success.

Uconn is actually 4th in the nation in 2 point defense which is the key since a huge % of Syracuses points come from inside the arch. They are even better at home allowing 37.3% from inside the arch which is actually #1 even better than Louisville who are ranked #3 overall in 2point defense. I bring up Louisville because Syracuse went on the road to Louisville and they won by 1 point 52-51 and the only reason they won was because Louisville went 12 from 21 from the FT line. Uconn much like Louisville will have a rebound advantage because of the style Syracuse plays. Uconn is a better rebounding team statistically overall and on their own court with a +8.2 rebound margin.

Lastly in that game Jeremy Lamb shot just 2-10 from three point range. I expect him to have a better game as he built a ton of momentum on the road vs. Nova with his career high. The entire team has momentum right now and this is the exact type of match up Syracuse does not want to see. Between Andre Drummond who is a top 5 pick when he decides to go to the NBA and the other bigs including Alex Oriakhi and Tyler Olander, and Roscoe Smith, Uconn has just as much length as Syracuse.

Butler +1 (3.3* Early Prime Time)
Butler lost very early in the season in OT at home to Valpo.

Magic -3.5 4.4* pod

Duke -1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
They are just a better team and this line shows it.

Dayton +3 4.4* POD & Dayton +150 1* play
Both Dayton and Duquesne are tied in the Atlantic for 8th place which is key considering the top 8 get a home court game in the conference tournament. It

Seton Hall +2.5 (3.3* Play)
Seton Hall really needs a win to have a key win to help their NCAA tournament chances.

Uconn Huskies -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
The Huskies have been inconsistent all year long and now they are fighting for their tournament lifes.

Iowa +4 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Iowa +162 (1* play) Iowa actually out played Indiana on the road last time out shooting 63% from the field to Indiana's 55%, but -10 FTA, -17 rebounds, and - 4 TO's won't get the job done. Those are 3 areas Iowa has significant advantages at home. Indiana does not play good defense we have seen it all year and Iowa put up 89 points on them last time in their loss. I expect them to come back and win this game at home. Indiana 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite .5 to 6.5 while Iowa is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.

4* NBA POD

Minnesota +4 (4.4* POD); Minnesota +160 (1* bonus)
For one I like that Minnesota has an extra day of rest and preparation for their biggest game of the year. If they want to go to the tournament they can't lose this game. They dominated Northwestern the first time particularly because they held them to 32% shooting. Why? Well Northwestern really only has 2 scoring options in John Shurna and Drew Crawford who shot a combined 10 for 31 in the first match up. Minnesota has a very good defense and are holding opponents to 40.4% in their last 5 games while Northwestern just 49.4% in their last 5.

I think this will be a game that Minnesota concentrates on getting out to an early lead. That's one thing that has plagued them this year they outplayed Ohio State for most of the game last time out but got off to a 20-0 defecit. Northwestern has been outscored in the 1st and 2nd half in conference play and are 300th in the nation in rebound % while Minnesota is 84th. I think Minnesota has proven they can win on the road and if they can avoid the slow start should go on to win this game. Overall I think Northwestern will struggle to score points against Minnesota's defense at times and they won't get enough second chance opportunities to win the game.

Sixers -3 *4.4* NBA POD 20,28,31,14,25,17 and 11 those are the margin of victories for the 76ers coming off a loss. They are 7-1 straight up and ATS their only loss was against the Clippers. They play the Mavericks tonight on a short number and I love their chances to pull off the defeat. The Sixers come off a road trip and are 5-0 SU and ATS in their first home game after a road game with winning margins of 23, 31, 12, 20 and 5. The Mavericks are just 2-5 in their first game of a road trip after being at home this year and even have a loss @Cleveland in that spot. They had to New York on Sunday after this game and I know Philly will want revenge for their loss at home against the Mavericks last March.

[b]Northern Iowa +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) NIOWA +225 (1.5* BONUS)[/b]
I think it

West Virginia +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
West Virginia has lost 5 of 6 right now and they face an equally desperate team in Pitt that likely has to win out to have a chance for the tournament.

Thunder -145 (4.5* NBA POD) Been missing my last few picks by a point or too and I think this game is close enough to the point where it will be the Thunder by right around 3 if they don't cover the spread. To me I'd rather pay the 45cents and get myself a win than lose by 1/2 point or 1 point again which has seem to be a trend of late for me. The Thunder are one of the better road teams this year and they are also 7-2 on 0 days rest. The Rockets are off 0 days rest as well and a 6 game road trip so this is a difficult spot for them facing one of their conference best..5.

N. Iowa +1 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Northern Iowa was a 14.5 point favorite at home and lost to Evansville, and now they are under dogs on the road. There is not way that's worth a 15.5 point swing. Both teams are fighting for a top 6 seed in the MVC tournament because they will get a bye. I like Northern Iowa down the stretch here and in their home loss they allowed Evansville to shoot 48% from the field and 26 attempts from the FT line which led to 24 points. I expect Northern Iowa to not allow free points in this game it's not their character. On the other hand Northern Iowa can only play better. They shot 40% from the field and an awful 13-23 from the FT line and turned the ball over 18 times. They only turn the ball over about 10 times per game to begin with. The game was decided by the FT line and Evansville ability to get there as well as their ability to force turnovers. Those are two things Northern Iowa can and will easily clean up. Evansville is not a very good team they allow 48.7% from the field in conference play and 47.7% when they are home so expect Northern Iowa to be able to score points in this one especially on revenge which will result in them buttoning up their defense. There is a reason they are 55-27 ATS in their last 82 as road dogs and 25-11 ATS in their last 36 overall as a dog. Evansville upset Creighton and then lost their last game vs. a team that didn't have their second leading scorer. This is a team that's about to fall fast.

Wisc-Milwaukee pk (3.3*BONUS)
Milwaukee already got revenge recently vs. Butler a team Cleveland State lost to at home on Sunday.

Pacers +3 (5.5* NBA POD)
Love the Pacers in this spot with fresh legs.

Louisville +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I like Louisville's ability in this game they are the hot team and they play extremely well at home on the defensive end. They have a pair of guys that will work for rebounds in the front court against Syracuse's size in Dieng 9.2 rbg and Behanan 8.8, but 12.5 during their winning streak. I think Louisville will out rebound Syracuse tonight and that will provide the spark they need especially in transition offense. Both teams like to create steals and score in transition. When this becomes a half court game both teams are pretty much even as both play exceptional defense. Louisville can institute the press which can create issues as it did for West Virginia on Saturday in their come back win. Louisville has dominated the Orange of late and Syracuse is due for a tough loss on the road and this one would be it.

Kansas St +4 (3.3* bonus) Kansas State was in a similar situation exactly a year ago on revenge vs. Kansas and they came out and absolutely dominated Kansas. They will be up for this game tonight in front of a sell out crowd and I believe they come up with their best effort of the season. They were out rebounded by 24 and shot 31% at Kansas and still managed to lose by just 18. AT home they are out rebounding opponents by 7.5 and Kansas is just +1 on the road. Kansas has lost on the road in similar situations at Iowa State and Missouri and I see no reason why they won't lose this game especially since it's like Kansas State's Super Bowl.

Vandy +5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
I love Vanderbilt in this situation because they match up with Kentucky better than any other team in the SEC. Unlike Florida this team has size down low to go along with the perimeter play that should challenge a Kentucky defense that struggles at times defending the 3. Austin Davis has to match up against a Sr in Festus Ezeli who is bigger and slightly taller. That should be an interesting match up here. If Kentucky continues to play solid defense they can win this game, but 43% of Vanderbilts shots are from 3 and they are shooting 42.1% in conference play and they too play great defense in conference play 37.5%. Kentucky's offense relies on freshmen and outside of Lamb this team is extremely streaky from 3 point range. It's going to be hard for Calipari to make adjustments at Vanderbilt considering the layout of the court and I think that could be a huge advantage for Vanderbilt because Kentucky is such a young team.

Kentucky starts 3 freshmen 2 sophomore's and they really lack proven depth. While Vanderbilt starts 4 seniors and 1 junior and pound for pound they match up extremely well as I mentioned before. Vanderbilt has been in this spot before and have come out on top more often than not hosting a #1 seed of late. They beat Kentucky 5 of the last 6 at home and again I think they'll be right in this game. After all Kentucky has played in just 6 road games and are 5-1. Their only challenge came from Indiana in a 72-73 loss. Their other 5 games are vs. teams with RPI's of 137, 135, 117, 79, and 177. Vanderbilt is a real opponent at 27th and their home court advantage should be crazy tonight. It will be interesting to see how a young team plays in this big game.

Clippers +4 (4.4* NBA POD) I see the Mavericks getting back up for this game especially off their Cavs loss and their coach ripping into them. They should be motivated and I don't like this 76ers team as favorites at all never mind by 4 points. This line is a bit inflated now since people are now "not buying into" what the Clippers had been doing since they lost to the Cavs, but the Cavs have been playing some good basketball. 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite .5 to 4.5. They may even lose the game tonight.

Iona -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
This one is for the MAAC title likely although Loyolla will still get a visit from Fairfield who is still in this thing.

Portland State -1 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Portland State is 5-6 in the Big Sky while Idaho State is 6-5 despite beating Idaho State the first time around.

Lakers +3.5 (4.4* NBA POD) The Lakers in danger of losing a third straight game. I think this team is too good for that especially going up against the Celtics. They should be fresh despite being on this road stretch they are actually on 2 days rest for just the 5th time all season and the 3rd time on the road where they are 1-1, but then again they did face the almighty Heat one of those road games where they were on 2 days rest. Here tonight I think the Celtics recent magic ends. Celtics have won 5 in a row, but who have they beaten? Maybe Memphis at home is impressive, but then again Memphis had them on the ropes the entire game before one run put them to bed. Here I like the Lakers to show their fresh legs and finally get a road win they have been searching for.

Nebraska +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Nebraska facing a ranked team in Michigan that just lost at Michigan State and should be in a let down spot yet again with a match up against Indiana. Nebraska needs this game desperately and Doc Sadler is too good of a coach after giving up 54% form the field to Minesota this is the perfect match up for them because Michigan is struggling to score points in an efficient way. Tim hardaway Jr. shooting just 33.6% in his last 11 games 22% from 3 and Michigan has lost 6 of 7 on the road and were out rebounded by 24 in their last game. Nebraska can pull off an ugly win here today and I"m betting they will.

Spurs +3.5 4.4* NBA POD
Spurs have Detroit and NJ up next on their East coast road stretch and they should be focused in this one to get a win and go 3-0 vs. the East.

Florida +9 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

Kentucky may be 15-0 at home, but they are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Florida is a team that can absolutely beat them on the road if they got hot and I still think 9 points is a bit too much in a match up between the two best in the SEC. First of all Kentucky is a team dominated by their front line while Florida is a team dominated by their perimeter play and that

I like Memphis despite the Spurs being red hot with 4 wins in a row including one less than a week ago at Memphis where they return tonight.

Missouri won in dramatic fashion in their last game over Kansas despite trailing by 8 points with less than 2.5 minutes to go, but they pull off the upset of ranked Kansas.

Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 55 (3.3* play)
Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.

76ers +3.5 (4.4* NBA POD); 76ERS +145 (1*) I like the 76ers in this spot despite them getting blown out at home by the Heat and now going on the road to face the Hawks. I think they'll be motivated to bounce back and continue their 17-7-1 ATS run over the last 25 games. They are 5-2 ATS on 0 days rest over their last 7 and I think this is a good spot as they are well rested after their home stand. The Hawks meanwhile are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 7 on 1 days rest and also just got blown out by the Grizzlies. To me this game will be back and forth and in the end the 76ers are the better team with the better offense and defense statistically.

Iona -3 (5.5* NCAAB POD) This is an interesting match up Iona was blowing big leads than a week ago they went to Fairfield. I took a trip down to watch this game live as I had another MAX play involved backing the Gaels and they did not disapoint. They lost as 10.5 favorites vs. Manhattan at home. A team that won 6 games all of last year and lost by 40 to Iona on their home court will try to hold off the surging Gaels. This will not be a good day for Manhattan who is tied atop the MAAC conference with Iona. Iona is the best team in this conference they shoot over 50% on the road and their inside out offense is hard to defend even for Manhattan. Michael Glover has the inside presence and rebounding skills and Mo Mo Jones the transfer from Arizona has the ability to shoot outside and drive it to the basket (43 points in his last game) and probably the most valuable player of them all the passer in point guard Sr. Scott Machado who is 12th in the nation in assist to turnover margin. Manhattan is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win% greater than .600 while Iona lost ATS in their last and are 9-1-1 ATS in the following game. They have circled this one on their calendar and it's a must win game.

Love the Pistons tonight.

Tennessee Tech +2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAB POD
Ten Tech

Ball State +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Ball State was the MAC contender before the season started and they returned just about everyone after 19 wins a year ago. Ball State can play defense against Buffalo tonight and win in my opinion. They have to stay out of the long scoring droughts and play a full game, but they can definitely keep this game in striking defense and will tonight. They are allowing 38.7% from the field in road games this year and I think Bal State's Jarrod Jones is a difficult match up for Buffalo and should have a huge game.

Nuggets -114 (5* NBA POD)
Not going to mess around with the spread here when we can take the money line at -114.

Illinois +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Love the Illinois team tonight playing on ESPN against a ranked opponent as a home dog. Public loves Michigan State of course. Illinois is very capable of upsets they beat Ohio State at home as +8.5 point under dogs. Tonight off 3 losses this is a desperate team that's looking to rebound. Illinois is holding opponents under 40% at home and Michigan State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips here 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite .5 to 6.5.

Pitt +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD Pitt has now off back to back wins and now they are on a mission. They are a different team now that they have Tray Woodall back to play point guard. Meanwhile the young Mountaineers are off back to back losses and they got robbed of upsetting Syracuse on Saturday after being up by a ton. Now the young team that seems to be a little fragile has to play a Pitt team that desperately needs to start putting together a winning resume. Pitt is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings and they are the #1 rebound % team. I give them a good shot to pull off the upset here tonight in what should be a very close game. Princeton +2 (2.2* bonus)

CLIPPERS +6.5 (4.4* NBA POD) I like the Clippers here tonight despite their struggles on the road, just 1-4. The Nuggets are due for a loss after winning 6 straight. I think their confidence is just a bit too high right now and the Clippers look to have gotten Chris Paul going which will only make them better moving forward. Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the Dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Take the Clippers and I wouldn't be shocked to see them win outright.

Santa Clara +3 (5.5* NCAAB POD) Not a very exciting match up by any means between two bad teams, but we are not about exciting match ups we just want to win money and I think this is the best opportunity to do that on Saturday. Santa Clara is a team searching for it's first conference win which is hard to believe considering this team beat Villanova and New Mexico and scored 54 points on Oklahoma in 2nd half of a game earlier in the year. They've had a lot of discipline issues throughout, but if there is a team they would need to face to get on the win board in conference play that would be Pepperdine. Pepperdine has had suspensions and injuries of their own creating a huge depth issue which has led them to really slow the pace in which they can hardly ever get into a rhytm as they are averaging under 40% from field. Santa Clara can at least score points and run a bit and I think this is a great opportunity for them to get a win. They faced a similar type team in Eastern Michigan a few weeks back that was among the worst in the nation in possessions per game like Pepperdine and they came out with a win by 20 points. Santa Clara is averaging 7 more field goal attempts than their opponents and if they get that yet again they should be able to win. Clara is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog .5 to 6.5 while Pepp is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a home favorite.

4.4* pod

[b]Iona -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)[/b]
I love Iona here tonight coming off a loss most teams might be in for another let down, but here I think they get back on track.

[b]Tenn Tech -1 (5.5* MAX NCAAB POD)[/b]
TN Tech was guilty of a let down at home vs. Jax State after nearly defeating the only team left in the conference that

4.4* NBA POD

UAB +9.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD); UAB +400 1* This is it for a very talented UAB team and they know it. They have some revenge against Marshall and I believe they match up very well against Marshall a team that only forced 9 TO's in the first match up. That's been the issue for UAB they are turning the ball over 17 times per road game, but Marshall doesn't force turnovers they rebound well and play decent defense. UAB plays better defense and rebounds well enough not to get blown out in a conference game. Marshall just 60% from the FT line and in the first match up they shot just 39.7% from the field. IF you UAB can crawl back and play solid defense they'll have a chance in the end to win and get their second conference win that should propel them moving forward. Marshall off a tough road loss could be caught in a tough spot here playing an athletic UAB team. It's not like Marshall is very good offensively to cover this kind of points.

4.4* nba pod

Cinci +5.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I believe these are two very closely matched teams with Syracuse and Cinci both having solid defenses, but Syracuse with the edge on offense. HOwever, this game is at Cinci hosting a ranked opponent with a chance to upset a #1 team at home on ESPN. Those opportunities do not come often and the Bearcats are very capable especially since Syracuse is down at the moment losing their first game and coming off shooting just 34% at Notre Dame and Cinci is much better defensively than ND holding opponents to 38% at home and they have beaten 3 straight ranked opponents. Syracuse will be without Fab Melo at Center and he's been called the "key to their defense." I think that's a huge loss and should impact this game. Syracuse is also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite .5 to 6.5.

Giants +3 -120 (6*NFL POD); Giants +128 (2.5* bonus)
Love the Giants in this spot especially the fact that they have revenge. They have just been a completely different team since they beat the Jets and their defensive line is as healthy as it's been all season. The way their defense is playing right now it's just as good as the 49ers considering what they did on the road last week against Aaron Rodgers. A lot of it had to do with turnovers and drop passes but the Giants did everything they had to in order to win easily and that is really what they did. Meanwhile the 49ers who I also had as a POD surprised a lot of people and won with Alex Smith driving the field. Don't expect that to happen again this week I see the 49ers going back to their old ways of run first trying to beat the Giants at their alleged weakness but that run defense was stout down the stretch.

Manning in the first match up was -1 in the TO margin as he threw 2 interceptions.. Once again I think he redeems himself he's having that kind of year. Manning and the Giants really had that game won last time in San Fran they dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes held the 49ers to 305 yards as they were +90. They could not get the ball in the end zone just 1 for 4 in the red zone. But right now this team is just a different team they are clicking on both ends at the right time.

They are converting 50% of their third downs over their last 3 games and were 7-14 in the first match up while the 49ers were 3-11 in the first match up and are just 28.89% over their last 3 games and are 31st on the season in 3rd down offense. What's surprising is their defense is not as good at home giving up 39% red zone conversions to 30% ont he road and the Giants defense is allowing just 35.83% conversions on the road. This is a team that just wins on the road under Tom Coughlin.

We know all about the 49ers struggles in the red zone and they are under 40% TD rate in the red zone now they've done better of late, but now once again against the Giants I think they'll be conservative. The way they win is run and don't turn the ball over they were #1 in the league in TO margin and were +4 vs. the Saints. Giants were +3 vs. the Packers. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the TO battle. The 49ers will have to be +2 or better to win this game in my opinion and the Giants are 5th in the league in TO margin so I don't see it happening. Giants are now 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games and it'll continue with another trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday night.

Wisconsin GB +122 (4* NCAAB POD) Youngstown has been the Horizon surprise so far off to a 5-3 start, but it's a team that is really short on depth in a span of two games their bench scored just 4 points, and in their last game just a day ago all 5 starters logged over 30 minutes each. This could be an issue as GB is hungry for a conference win. I think the strength of schedule speaks volumes as GB has faced a much tougher schedule thus far and even their opponents winning % is .578 compared to Youngstown's .502, the only team on Youngstown's schedule worth mentioning is Penn State while GB has had plenty of road trips worth mentioning including Marquette, Wisconsin, Virginia and Indiana State. Look for their 7'1 footer Alec Brown to cause match up problems especially vs. Damian Eargle who played all 40 minutes on Friday. GB is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings with Youngstown and are 21-10 ATS int heir last 31 following a loss.

Long Beach St -1.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD) These two teams have met for the last two conference championships with an opportunity to go to the NCAA tournament. The last two years after dominating the conference regular season Long Beach State has lost in the championship game. They have had this game circled on their calendars all year long and their early season schedule will benefit them. This is a team that upset Pittsburgh (we called that one), and their losses came to Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State and North Carolina. They are led by a SR back court in Casper Ware and Larry Anderson that remember the last two conference championship games well. I think their is a reason Long Beach is favored here they are simply a better team and are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 as a favorite .5 to 6.5 points. They are also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings with UCSB. While UCSB is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Saturday's and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog. That to me makes me wonder just how tough UCSB is and I think Long Beach will use this game to show the nation they will be in the tourney this year.

Penn State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Penn State are losers of 3 straight and Illinois off a huge win vs. Ohio State their last time out and are now ranked #1 in the Big Ten.

Penn State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Penn State are losers of 3 straight and Illinois off a huge win vs. Ohio State their last time out and are now ranked #1 in the Big Ten.

UAB +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD); +184 (1* bonus) Rice has never beaten UAB since joining the conference as they are 0-6 and although Rice is off to a great start I think UAB is a more desperate team especially after starting 0-3 in the conference against the 3 best conference teams. They blew leads in all of those games. Even the head coach said, "We played the so called 3 best teams and we should be 3-0." Expect them to really come out in this game and dominate. Rice's strength is the double double machine Arsalan Kazemi 14.3 ppg and 12 rebounds per game, but UAB has a better match up in the bigger stronger Forward Cameron Moor 15.3 ppg 10.3 rbg and 2.9 blocks. That's advantage to UAB. UAB is actually playing better defense and has a better perimeter game where Rice struggles on defense. Rice has also failed to be consistent at the FT line and is ranked 252nd in the nation. Although they were great in their last game I don't expect them to be better or consistent moving forward.

Spurs +6 -115 (5.5* NBA POD); Nebraska +2 1H (2.2* play)
Love the Spurs tonight despite being on a 10 game losing streak on the road they looked like they had it last night leading the Heat by 17 at one point, but fell apart in the 3rd quarter. I think they catch a break here although they are on back to back none of their starters logged over 30 minutes last night and they face a Magic team that is playing their 3rd game in 3 nights. You wouldn't think they'd look ahead since the Spurs are one of the top franchises, but they do have the Lakers coming in next. This might be a chance for them to get some rest and I don't see them taking this game incredibly seriously since they are on a high from winning of late and their starters are logging well into the 30's including Dwight Howard who had 39 minutes of time last night.

Nebraska has gained some confidence and Indiana is losing it. I see Indiana recovering in the second half but Nebraska will come out as any normal team playing a conference foe that's ranked at home. Nebraska will continue to prove they belong in the Big Ten tonight.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Louisville +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Louisville had a rough stretch but they were able to bounce back with a win vs. Depaul after losing 4 of 5 games. NOw they're under dogs on the road again and I think they come up with a big effort vs. an inconsistent Marquette team that tends not to really blow opponents out. Marquette is also off a couple wins so their confidence is riding high and they've shown a tendency to have a let down vs. a decent defense in Vanderbilt as they lost at home in that game. An awful Villanova team was extremely competitive to at Marquette and Louisville should be to after all they are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 rod games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog so expect them tow in this game.

Grizzlies +5 (4.4* NBA POD)

Illinois State +1.5(4.4* NCAAB POD) The Red Birds coming off back to back losses against their conference best teams are hungry. In both games they shown the ability to rally when they're down and now they'll be playing a must win type game. The players are hungry and they haven't won at Drake in some time, but Drake is nothing special lets be honest. They are allowing 50% from the field defensively in conference games and they are terrible at the FT line shooting 61% in conference play to Illinois State's 75%. I'll take that advantage any day. The Dog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings so I expect them to cover yet again.

Giants +8

I said last week this team was nothing like the 2007 team that won the Super Bowl, but now I

S. Alabama +1 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Troy and Southern Alabama both 1-3 in the Sun Belt with similar opponents, but Southern Alabama has the momentum. The only shot I give to Troy in this game is if they shoot the lights out from the perimeter. They do shoot 26 three's a game so if they make enough of them ya sure they can beat Southern Alabama, but Southern Alabama has too many other advantages. For one they are better offensively and defensively statistically. They also shoot better from the FT line and they have a +7.9 rebound margin this year while Troy is at -5.3. I feel Southern Alabama's size will give Troy issues especially Javier Carter and Augustine Rubit. Troy is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Sun Belt and the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Troy beat Southern Alabama on the road in the last meeting so I expect a little pay back in this one.

49ers +4 (5.5* NFL POD) 49ers +175 (2* play) The 49ers are about to be tested, but there is a lot about their play at home that I like other than the fact they allow just 10.9 points per game. They are probably the leagues best all around defense, but they'll have their hands full with the Saints who broke an NFL record in 3rd down conversions at 57.08% on the season and over their last 3 have converted 70% of their 3rd down attempts. Guess what all 3 of those games were at home and now they are going on the road where they scored roughly 2 TD's less. The Saints have also played 12 of their 17 games in a dome this year. When they were not in a dome they averaged 25.8 ppg a significant decrease to their dome and carpet stats. The 49ers are very similar but a lot better than some of the teams the Saints have struggled with on the road including The Titans and Jaguars which I will get to in a second. The 49ers are just so much better than those two teams they have extra time to prepare and that's something that will only benefit this team. This season they had two games one with 10 days and another with 14 days. They won by a combined score of 46-10. The other time they had 8 days as they played a Monday after a Sunday and came up with a 20-3 domination of the Steelers. The 49ers are also the #4 red zone defense allowing just 41.18% TD's, and are #1 in allowed attempts with 2.1. The only opponents in the top 10 in % were the Falcons and Titans who allowed 22 and 26 points when the Saints visited them. Again 49ers are better in this area. San Fran is also #1 in TO margin while New Orleans is 19th. I think it's going to be the 49ers game to lose and they won't make the costly turnover to do so meanwhile the Saints have faced very bad defenses on the road from a pass defense perspective. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in yardage but that's because nobody can run on them as they are #1 rush defense in yards allowed and yards per carry. The Saints rely on their rushing offense much more than many people realize and it'll be a huge key on Saturday. The 49ers are actually 4th in QB rating allowed. The Saints have faced just two other teams on the road in the top 15 and those were the Jaguars and Titans at 14th and 15th who they managed to score just 23 and 22 points against. But neither of those team's had the pass rush that the 49ers have. Just take a look at the pass rushing teams that the Saints have faced out of domes this year. They're ranked 31st, 32nd, 29th, 25th, and 26th. Again they'll have their hands full and I like the value I'm getting with the general public backing the red hot Saints who a year ago had to go out west and got shut down by the Seahawks. This was once a team that allowed 31 points and went 8-17 on third down against the Rams in a road loss. The Rams were arguably the worst team in the league.

South Florida +2.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
A ranked opponent on a Friday night in South Florida.

Wisconsin +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD); Wright St +8 bonus
Love Wisconsin tonight as I think they rebound from their 1-3 start in Big Ten play they are still a contender in this conference and I think they match up well vs. Purdue.

Jazz +2.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Love the Jazz tonight as they have some revenge and confidence coming into this game. For one they are shooting over 50% at home and playing good defense holding opponents to 42.3% while the Lakers are giving up over 100 points in road games and are on 0 days rest. I think Kobe is gassed and it'll show they are 1-3 ATS this year on 0 days rest and that continues tonight against a Utah team that's 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a .5 to 4.5 point dog.

Denver +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Love Denver tonight as they have revenge on their mind against Colorado State who seems to be looking ahead to their conference opener in 3 days. Denver looks to have their best team in years and should contend for the Sun Belt Title. The Dog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and I think Colorado State should have issues inside agaisnt Chris Udofia who blocks a lot of shots. Denver also the better FT shooting team at 81% and averages more blocks and steals. They already beat Boise and Wyoming out of the Mountain West and they'd love to beat an in state rival.

GRIZZLIES +3.5 4.4* PLAY

4.4* NCAAB POD

ALABAMA -1 5.5* NCAAF POD
We were on LSU the first time around and if you watched the game you know Alabama would have been the right play as Bama's interception down the middle of the field on a jump ball that got picked off at their own 1 yard line was the difference in the game. That and the fact that they went 2-6 from FG's otherwise they had complete control of that game and revenge will be a huge advantage for this team and is probably the reason they are favorites despite playing in LSU's home state. I'll break down some key aspects to each team's statistics and strategy this year.

Quarterbacks & Pass Defense:
Jordan Jefferson gives LSU more offense and I expect him to get 90% of the snaps in the title game. Jefferson is known for not being super accurate, but he has converted over 60% of his passes thus far and was 6-10 vs. Alabama the first time, but Alabama should come up with the necessary adjustments as they held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempts and 48.3% conversions and a 83.94 QB rating while picking off 12 passes and allowing just 6 passing TD's this year. AJ McCarron on the other hand got better with every game and was 16-28 for 199 yards in the first game. Bama did have two uncharacteristic turnovers one on a trick play when they let WR Marquis Maze pass which ultimately cost them in a game which had the feeling of them dominating. LSU's pass defense is solid and their corner backs are better than Bama's but I still give Alabama the advantage as LSU's pass defense allows 1 more yard per attempt at 5.4, 51.1%, and a 93.07 QB rating, but they only allowed 7 passing TD's and had 6 more interceptions with 18 on the season.

Penalties, Special Teams & Turnovers
Alabama is cleaner and penalized 2.2 times less than LSU on the season and they were penalized 6 times to LSU's 7. Alabama has one of the best coverage units and I doubt they let Tyrann Mathieu touch it. In the first game they dominated field position all game long so special teams did not seem to be the issue and both teams were even in TO margin which again giving the ball up two times was not like Alabama or LSU. I expect Alabama to have better FG opportunities and they'll punt before they try a long FG which should help them even more in field position.

Rushing Offense & Defense
LSU on paper had more rushing yards than Alabama in the first game but to me Alabama had much more success. LSU never allows a RB to get into a rhythm and I think that's a big deal. On the other side Trent Richardson is a beast and he's been here before. Against Texas the #1 run defense in 2009 he had 19 carries for 109 yards in the National Championship as a freshmen. In the first game he ran for 89 yards on 23 carries while Spencer Ware had 16 carries for 23 yards for LSU. Just like the passing defense of Alabama allowing 1 yard less per attempt, the Alabama Run defense is allowing 0.9 yards less than LSU and they have the better running game. Opponents have only rushed for 1st downs 3.6 times per game against Alabama's defense while they have rushed for 5.6 per game vs. LSU which will be key since both teams will want to pick up first downs on the ground.

3rd Downs:
In the match up it was Alabama that was 5-13 and LSU just 3-11. ON the season Alabama has the offensive advantage probably because they are more balanced with a more accurate QB in McCarron. They converted 48.7% on the year and 49.06% in conference games while LSU converted 46.84% but only 41.75% in conference games and converted 39.29% on the road and were 1-9 against Georgia in the SEC Championship game and in the first half they had 6 possessions and had 6 3 and outs. There is no better defense in the nation on third down than Alabama. Defensively Alabama is also the better team holding opponents amazingly to 25% conversions on third down and just 22.02 % in conference games. Meanwhile LSU holds opponents to 34.87%, but 40% on the road and 34.4% in conference play.

Red Zone:
Okay both defenses were outstanding this year. Alabama only allowed 17 attempts all year in 12 games and only 12 attempts in 8 conference games while LSU just as good 23 attempts in 13 games and 13 attempts in 9 conference games. Alabama is a bit better at holding opponents out of the end zone 35.29% allowing just 6 TD's all year while LSU allowed 12 in 23 attempts. Offensively both teams got there and this is one edge LSU does have scoring 72.13% of their 61 attempts, but they were 0-3 vs. Alabama the first time around and I expect Alabama's defense to continue that success which will out weigh the small advantage LSU has on getting the ball in the end zone.

Final Remarks:
LSU to me just relies to much on special teams and turnovers and that's really not where Alabama will make mistakes. We saw the offensive weaknesses of LSU in their last 2 games vs. Arkansas and Georgia in which they trailed 10-0 and 14-0 and the countless 3 and outs. They can't afford that to happen vs. Alabama but I don't know how they can avoid it. I give a small coaching advantage to Nick Saban he'll have his team ready to win this one after losing a heart breaker at home the first time around. He was able to get his team to put up 37 points vs. another top 5 defense in 2009 so I'm confident Alabama will win this game setting up a lot of controversy on why LSU had to play Alabama again.

[b]LSU/Alabama Over 40 2.2* play[/b]
[b]First points will be a FG +150 2* play[/b]
Both teams are among the best in the nation in red zone defense and I expect both teams not to want to make the first mistake early expect the game to heat up with some shots down the field and I believe this game goes over the total but as far as the first points of the game you can

NILL +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
Love Northern Illinois here first of all let's not get sucked into the rankings on Arkansas defense where they are top 20 in total defense rushing defense and scoring defense. First of all they haven't faced any offenses that are as balanced and as good as Northern Illinois with maybe the exception of Virginia Tech. On average they've faced a 74th ranked total offense while Northern Illinois is 9th. Even worse they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense from ypc aspect and Northern Illinois is ranked 4th in the nation and are averaging 5.75 ypc and it all starts with their veteran offensive line led by 4 seniors and 1 junior. Arkansas State does have 32 sacks, but Northern Illinois has allowed just 9 sacks. Chandler Harnish really has been the difference with his decision making.

I like Ryan Aplin too on the other side, but he's small and tends to give the ball away with 13 INT's on the year while Harnish 62.9%, 26 TD's and just 5 interceptions and a 156 QB rating which is the highest of any opponent that Arkansas has faced. The average opponent was ranked 81st while Harnish is 16th in the nation so you know he can pass the ball too.

Arkansas State will also be playing with an interim coach as their head man took the Ole Miss job. that should offset the fact that this game is closer to their campus than Northern Illinois. Also Northern Illinois gave the ball up less this year was penalized less and was better offensively on 3rd down 47.5% to 44.2% and in the red zone they got their more and scored more. They had 64 att in the RZ and scored 64% of the time and 73% on the road meanwhile Arkansas State got their 61 times and scored TD's 57.38% of the time. Getting off the field is pretty even Northern Illinois 37.5% and Northern Illinois 39.5% but they only allowed 33% in their last 9 games after a slow start. Despite missing two defensive starters today they still are better defense than the stat sheet says.

Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD I'm not sold on the Giants back to back wins vs. the Cowboys and Jets does not really impress me because neither of those teams had much balance on offense and now they face the Falcons who ironically have a lot of balance with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Giants pass rush and all the hype of them reminding the media of the 2007 Super Bowl team to me is so far off. For one the Giants actually had a running game in 2007. This year they are ranked dead last in rushing yards and the Falcons have a very capable run stop unit. Yes the Giants came on strong at the end of the year but remember their game against the Redskins? Yuck, I just think this team is a .500 team and not a team that can string off a bunch of wins mainly because their secondary and rushing defense are suspect and the pass rush can not hide everything especially going up against the Falcons who will go into a no huddle offense at any time. I also expect to see Turner have designed runs at Osi Umenyiora who struggles in run defense. The Giants are 23rd in the league in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 4.5 ypc. The Falcons have been just as hot at the end of the season in fact Matt Ryan has 10 TD passes 0 Interceptions over his last 4 games. Atlanta is +7 turnover margin in their last 3 games while the Giants are +3 both teams rank in the top 10 for the season. In a game where both teams are pretty even you have to take the under dog and that would be the Falcons. I like the fact that they are 8th in RZ defense from TD's allowed and have allowed opponents to get their 15 times less this season to the Giants 46 att to 61. The Giants are 23rd allowing 55.74% TD's in the red zone this season and the Falcons have gotten inside the red zone 3 more times than the Giants and are ranked 13th when they get their in TD%. They are also better at staying on the field as the Giants are 15th, converting 37.38% while the Falcons with balance are 6th 44.39%. Take away the two Victor Cruz plays in the last two games and this Giants team is ordinary and probably sitting home for the playoffs. They're 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite .5 to 3 points while the Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 match ups in this series.

Rockets +4.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Love the Rockets here tonight as they lost to the Thunder last night and the Thunder even tried resting people in the 4th knowing this is their 2nd game in a row and they have the Spurs sunday who they are clearly looking ahead to as their third game in 3 days. Houston meanwhile has won 11 of 12 vs. the Thunder at home and they are 2-0 at home this year already beating the Spurs and the Hawks. They are just a different team here and I expect them to take advantage in this revenge spot. Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 following an ATS loss and the Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on 0 days rest

Kent St +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Kent State the reigning MAC Champions in back to back years will look to continue that when they tip of MAC play tonight at Buffalo. Buffalo a team that loves to run and shoot the threes. Kent State has been playing pretty good defense and they have also stolen the ball 9.2 times per game while forcing 17.2 turnovers. Buffalo is turning it over 16.8 times which won't help them in this match up. I look for Kent State who gets some players back including C Justin Mann who was suspended for 3 games to take advantage and make a statement in the MAC opener.

Texans -3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) These two met just three weeks ago with the Texans winning on a last second TD pass by TJ Yates. Yates actually threw 49 passes in that game as they were playing from behind all game and he took 5 sacks. Surprising was the rushing game worked they had 28 carries for 5.14 ypc. Texans are one of those teams that are rush proof they can run on any team we saw it last year and we saw it this year. When healthy they can run and now they got Andre Johnson back which should open up things even more. People forget just how good this defense has been all year #2 in total yards allowed and they have been consistent 3rd against pass, and 4th against the run and 4th in scoring defense. Bengals start a rookie QB to but the Bengals have been unable to run the ball and that's the advantage they do not have vs. the Texans. Bengals just got run over by the Ravens a week ago. This team has not won a game since 1990 in the playoffs and I don't expect that to change on Saturday. TExans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record, they'll win to go to Baltimore next week.

smu/pitt U47 (4.4* pod); SMU +4 (3.3* PLAY)
These teams are quite similar, both lost their star running back and have QB's that struggle that's one reason why I love the under in this one as both team's will try to win with their defense they simply do not have the offensive lines for continuous protection nor do they have the QB's that can lead a team down the field. In fact Pitt was the worst in the nation in sacks allowed with 56. SMU had 26 sacks, but their front line is a lot better than their ranking as they have faced a lot of quick throwing teams like Houston and Tulsa and TCU who just do not give up sacks in fact they faced an average opponent ranked 40th in sacks allowed. This is a team that can certain get to the QB and we will see that in this game.

Expect a lot of 1st and 10 running plays from Pitt and again SMU can stop the run they allowed just 3.5 ypc this season while Pitt also can stop the run allowing 3.36. SMU runs a bit better surprisingly out of the run and shoot, but they lack the experience against a defensive line that truly is stout. Their are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, but SMU has more advantages. For one they have their head coach while Pitt lost their HC to Arizona State. They also are more capable moving the ball through the air although they are more prone to turning the ball over I still will take my chances as JJ McDermott is a senior with two All Conference receivers in Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson. That's where I give SMU the edge in this game tomorrow.

Defense though will shine on both sides especially on third down, Pitt has dominated allowing 31.84% but they also are just 27% offensively on the road and defensively they're not used to seeing teams that can move the ball or even throw the Big East features some of the worst offenses in the nation and lack any true passing teams with the exception of WV, but still I see Pitt coming up with some sacks turning this game over to a field position and conservative approach on both sides. IN the red zone both teams struggle to get into the end zone and they are both allowing opponents not to get their either. Pitt allows 57.58% TD's, but just 33 attempts, and SMU 52.27% on 44 attempts. SMU's stat is particularly impressive considering they had to play some high power offenses such as Houston, Tulsa, Smiss, TCU, and A&M. This is a team that had high expectations, and they can live up to them with a win here and momentum going into next season.

Like Arkansas here they are more balanced on both sides of the ball.

4.4* NCAAB POD

4.4* NBA POD

Clemson -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD
I'm backing Clemson here their 2 losses down the stretch to South Carolina and NC St were without the glue of their offensive line in Phillip Price at LT. The 6'5 315lb tackle is healthy and ready to go and that should be the difference. We saw how dominating Clemson was against Virginia Tech this year and I think that talent shows up again tonight.

The key for Clemson is running the ball and this is not the same West Virginia defense of years past. They're 63rd in scoring defense in the Big East? They gave up far too many points to some bad offensive teams. On average they've faced a much less challenging schedule despite facing LSU in non conference ball, Clemson faced 2 SEC teams and their pass defense faced an average 58th passer rating team while WV faced an average 74th. Their run defense faced 47th average rushing offense and WV faced an average 69th. There is no comparison to offenses in the ACC vs. Big East. The health of Andre Ellington will be a key he's 100% and ran for 125 yards against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. We all saw how Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage vs. one of the best rushing teams in the nation last night in Michigan. If Clemson can run on Virginia Tech they can run on West Virginia.

West Virginia Rushing defense on paper gave up just 3.79 ypc overall, but 4.78 on the road they were highly inconsistent and gave up 38, 31, 49 points to 3 average Big East offenses in Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse and they haven't faced a QB and offense this good all year long maybe since LSU and they will have their hands full on 3rd downs which I'll get to in a minute. Clemson can also pass on West Virginia in my opinion the pass rush of West Virginia is not what it was in years past and again I love this offensive line and Tahj Boyd to hook up with all his weapons including Sammy Watkins and TE Dwayne Allen. Most of West Virginia's sacks came in one game 10 vs. Pitt and they had 17 in their other 11 games.

On the flip side Geno Smith has been excellent in the new offense only 7 interceptions 25 TD's and 65%. Probably the most accurate passer Clemson has faced, but they are one dimensional in the end and when you are one dimensional you have issues picking up 3rd downs. Clemson showed major holes in their run defense this year, but athletically up front they should be able to get Geno Smith. They have more talent up front and WV offensive line has under achieved big time and too often Geno Smith has been rushed allowing him not to pick up 3rd down conversions which to me is the biggest difference separating these two teams.

3rd down offense and defense. Clemson is 31st in the nation completing 44.61% of their 3rd downs and 48.48% in non conference. Now they go up against West Virginia who is holding opponents to 36.65% but a closer look tells me a completely different story. They allowed 45.88% on the road and They only faced two top 40 3rd down offensive teams in Syracuse 36th, and LSU 28th. Both converted on 3rd downs and destroyed West Virginia's offense converting 71% for Syracuse and 50% for LSU. Down the stretch they even gave up 52.63% conversions on third down to a similar type QB that they will face tonight in BJ Daniels and South Florida whom were ranked 87th in the nation in 3rd down offense. Take out Syracuse and LSU and West Virginia has faced an average 98th 3rd down offense. When they have played capable offenses they have failed time and time again. This is the same for their red zone defense which is worse than Clemson overall by 10% and they've allowed nearly 70% TD's on the road this year. Clemson's 3rd down and red zone defense are better in my opinion and West Virginia is just 38.41% converting 3rd downs. Look for Clemson to bring their excellent size and athleticism led by DE Andre Branch on 3rd downs which will turn the game.

Another hidden advantage is in special teams and turnovers. West Virginia is -2 and Clemson is +2. Not much of an advantage, but an advantage none the less. Kickoff and Punt Returns also an advantage West Virginia has allowed 24.52 ypr and 2 TD on kickoff's Sammy Watkins has the speed to bring it back at any point 26.27 ypr. Tavon Austin is good in his own right, but Clemson allows just 19.79 yards per return. In a game that should have a ton of points advantage Clemson. They are also allowing 1.5 yards less per punt return, have a higher FG%, and are averaging over 4 more yards per punt. West Virginia is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. ACC and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Clemson is pumped up and following a great ACC Championship with a healthy offensive line should be ready to play well here.

Tx Tech +11 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

[b]Pacers +8 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I'll take the more defensive team and the better FT% shooting team getting 8 points. The Dog is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in this match up and the Pacers played the Heat very well late last year.

Virginia Tech +3.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I don't think you'll need it but buy the half point. Nobody thinks VT should be here, but they are in a BCS game and that should be motivation for them to show on National TV who Logan Thomas is. Michigan's defense is over rated in my opinion. We already saw how the Big Ten defenses are over rated on Monday it's because the offenses in the Big Ten just are not very good and the same can be true for Michigan's defense although statistically looks solid they really didn't face any crazy good offenses and when they played Notre Dame they were able to do whatever they wanted. Michigan's offense on the other hand can be stopped as they put up just 16 and 14 points in the two games vs. Iowa and Michigan State who play similar type defense to Virginia Tech. Actually it's scary how similar Virginia Tech is to Michigan State as they are 4th in sack % Mich St is #1, they are 6th in completion % defense and MIch St is 13th. They are 15th in opposing QB rating while Mich State is 21st. Even in run defense the parallels again are similar with Virginia Tech ranking 17th in ypc while Michigan State was 5th. Bottom line the ACC has some better offenses in my opinion and Virginia Tech is a better coached team that will have more to play for after their ACC Championship loss. The idea that Denard Robinson has improved his passing is an over statement he still only completed 18 passes and 14 interceptions. Virginia Tech's defense has allowed 50.1% and 14 TD and 15 interceptions. Virginia Tech plays pressure defense and will be able to keep Denard and the running game in check forcing him to throw. The key will be James Gayle who is now healthy for Virginia Tech and showed it vs. Clemson. Also it looks like LB Alonzo Tweedy will also return which should send Kyle Fuller back to CB which can make all the difference. Don't sleep on Vtech's offense Thomas is a huge QB he's shown to be very accurate and doesn't make mistakes. If the game comes down to which defense and which offense makes the plays it'll be the Hokies. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. winning teams and Michigan is 8-20 ATS vs. winning teams.

Stanford +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) What a match up this is, but I don't see a Stanford team that again are under dogs to be scared of Oklahoma State or this offense. Andrew Luck pulled off a blow out last year defeating Virginia Tech 40-12. Now they face Oklahoma State and their 106th total defense. IN fact Oklahoma State has been able to stop the run or the pass allowing 5.03 ypc on the road this year. They'll have their hands full with Stephan Taylor and this offensive line of Stanford. Stanford up front on both sides could be the difference. They have two possible first rounders on the offensive line that has allowed just 9 sacks and pathed the way for the 20th ranked running game which has averaged 5.33 ypc. LT Jonathan martin and RG David Decastro. Stanford also has 38 sacks both are better than Oklahoma State who has 28 sacks and have allowed 11. The key stat I'm looking at though is sack % as Stanford is ranked 11th, the next best team they played was Texas A&M ranked 5th and they only won 30-29. Other than Texas A&M the big 12 is not loaded with teams that can get to the QB and it's no surprise that Brandon Weeden has only been sacked 11 times. At the end of the day I look at the more balanced team because Stanford has the look of a team that can stop Oklahoma's State's running game to as they have allowed just 3.11 ypc and 2.50 on the road this year. Stanford is just a little bit better they don't make the mistakes that Oklahoma State has forced other teams into in order to blow teams out of the building. Stanford just 15 total turnovers on the year and they are +6 on the season so don't expect Oklahoma State who has turned the ball over 22 times to be + margin in this one. Stanford also better on third down converting 52.17% to Oklahoma State's 50%, but it's again the defense that's making the difference holding opponents to 30.92% 28% on the road compared to Oklahoma State's 40.7%. Stanford is also better in the red zone converting 78.13% into TD's while Oklahoma State can be stalled 65% TD's.

Michigan State +3 +100 4* play Of the SEC teams in bowl season Georgia probably had the easiest schedule as they did not face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the regular season and then they were exposed by LSU in the SEC Championship game losing 42-10. Michigan State also had a heartbreaking loss in the Big Ten Championship and won't be going to the Rose Bowl yet again. This is a more veteran team than Georgia and although they are not happy about losing that game they do remember coming out in last year's Capital One Bowl and getting destroyed by Alabama 49-7. This team is better and I think they have what it takes to win today. Let's take a look at both QB's because both are pretty good and can play at the next level starting with Kirk Cousins who is the more accurate of the two 65% opposed to 58.8%. Murray has 33 TD's to Cousins 24, but Cousins just 7 interceptions to Murray's 12. Both defenses these two go up against are stout in pass defense, but in my opinion Georgia is a bit over rated having faced just two QB's the entire season in Kellen Moore and Tenn's Tyler Bray both having good games. Georgia is just not used to facing accurate passing QB's and that's what Cousins is with Keshawn Marin and BJ Cunningham on the outside. Both defenses have shown an ability to get to the QB, but Murray has been sacked 13 more times than Cousins. There are some pretty good pass rushes in the Big Ten including Michigan State who was the #1 sack % defense in the nation and had 41 sacks. Georgia got it done often with interceptions and Cousins just doesn't make too many poor decisions even under pressure. Georgia's offensive line will have some real issues in this game and I give the edge to Mich State. Run offense and defense is probably a push, Statistically Michigan State is better allowing 2.9 ypc while Georgia allowed 3.5 and again got even more exposed in the SEC Championship game allowing well over 5 yards per carry. Michigan State on the other hand only allowed 1 team to rush over 4 yards per carry all season and that's pretty consistent. Michigan State's running game also came alive the last 3 games because of Le'Vion Bell who had averaged 5.45 ypc all year and got 7.56, 5.38, and 5.89 over his last 3 games. Finally special teams. We saw how that hurt Georgia in the SEC Championship game and Michigan State has a punt return threat in Keshawn Martin who is explosive averaging nearly 12 yards per return and Nick Hill over 26 yards per kick return. Georgia's kicking game too struggles 7-14 in 40+ yard field goals. I think Georgia overall is a bit over rated and a bit to young to come up with a win after a heartbreaking loss vs. LSU.

2.2* PLAY BONUS

Vikings -1 5.5* NFL POD Bears went 2-5 on the road and since Cutler went down they have not been the same. Two QB's backing him up have 4 games with 3 interceptions. That just won't get it done and the the Vikings have been very competitive of late and they'll be motivated to win in front of their home crowd here on New Years day. Vikings just 1-6 at home this year haven't gone without at least 2 wins at home since 1967 and I think they avoid that again this year. Bears mentally have probably checked out for the holidays. Urlacher and Briggs aren't 100% and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Look for the duo at QB for the Vikings of Joe Webb and Christian Ponder to take this game over they are by far the better QB's and we remember we live in a QB league.

5* NCAAB POD

Northwestern +10 (5.5*NCAAF POD); Nwestern +300 1* bonus Texas A&M might be the best 6-6 team, but they just can't be thrilled to be playing in this bowl game after a disaster of a season and it doesn't help that they fired their head coach and interim coach Tim DeRuyter has already accepted the job at Fresno State. Just seems like their minds have been elsewhere as reports have been that their practices have been flat and they lost one of their teammates in a car accident so it's unlikely they are 100% focused. Northwestern on the other hand has come on strong as QB Dan Persa finally looks to be 100%. Persa will be playing in his last game and you have to think he's motivated after missing 2 of Northwestern's last few bowl games. Northwestern has always been competitive in bowl games as they lost last year to Texas Tech by 7 as +7.5, by 3 to Auburn as +9 and by 7 to Missouri as +14 covering each of their last 3 dogs. Texas A&M is 0-5 in their last 5 bowls. Again they come in as heavy dogs to a team that just has more talent, but if anyone can stick with them offensively it's going to be Dan Persa who should be able to continue his nation leading pass efficiency as Texas A&M is 113th in passing defense. Northwestern can also run the ball whether it be with their running backs or QB/WR Kain Colter who is averaging over 5 ypc and should provide a spark on multiple plays on Saturday. Northwestern's defense also improved big time this season towards the end, of course they did not have to face competition like A&M, but they'll take their chances and I think Tannehill will throw a few picks and Northwestern will win the turnover battle. Lastly if you are worried about Northwestern getting rushed by the nation's best pass rush no worries Persa is great at avoiding blitzes and he finally seemed healthy down the stretch as they were only sacked 3 times over their last 4 games and that includes 0 against Michigan State the #1 sack % defense.

Portland State +116 (4* POD) Portland State to me is a play, I love backing teams that can get to the FT line and shoot effectively and Portland State is one of the better teams in the nation where they are 29th shooting 75% and 78% on the road compared to Montana State who is shooting 67%. Montana also does not shoot particularly well at home or overall shooting 38% on the year and also allowing 47% while Portland is shooting 45.2% Portland is also 88th in rebound % at 52.2% while Montana State is 277th at 46.9% so expect them to have the advantage there to. I think they get their first road win of the season this is a team that played right with Oregon earlier in the year.

BYU +1 (4.4* NCAAF POD) BYU is ranked 16th in overall defense and although Tulsa has 23rd ranked offense have they really face a team of BYU's defensive caliber? Yes, two teams UCF and Boise ranked 15, 16th while BYU is of that same being extremely balanced. Overall though Tulsa has faced a 72nd average total defense. They did not fair well scoring just 24 and 21 points in the Boise and Central Florida games. To me BYU flipped their season with their change at QB to Riley Nelson although Jake Heaps played well down the stretch we could see both QB's tomorrow afternoon as I think they'll both expose Tulsa's 118th ranked secondary and 89th total defense. Both teams are good at stopping the run BYU I think will really give Tulsa a run for their money I think they'll surprise them on how big and strong they are up front. They only allowed 2.95 ypc on the road this year. I think the fact that both teams can stop the run that this game gets put in the hands of each QB and GJ Kinne has been good but when it comes to big games he's come up really small. Let' sbreak down the pass defense a little more because BYU really is much better despite Tulsa's ranking being so hlow they have faced some pretty good offenses so they're not as bad as they seem, but still I take BYU and their QB in this match up. BYU is 40th in pass efficiency defense while Tulsa is 71st. 20th in QB rating and Tulsa is 63rd. BYU is 19th in yds/att defense Tulsa 74th. I trust BYU's pass defense more and they have allowed 14 less sacks. More numbers on 3rd down BYU is just so much better on both sides of the ball. Offensively they are converting 53% of the time and an incredible 64.5% over their last 7 games. Their defense is giving up 36.97% on the year and 33% on the road while Tulsa is 42% on offense and 43% on defense. These same trends follow us to red zone offense and defense and this is where the game will be decided. Both teams are pretty even in offense getting to the red zone 51 and 53 times a piece. BYU has converted 61% into TD's and Tulsa 58.49%. Defensively though BYU is #3 in the nation allowing just 42% TD's on only 33 attempts meanwhile Tulsa has allowed 48 attempts and 58.33%. Bronco Mendenhall is 4-2 in bowl games with BYU.

4.5* POD

Notre dame +4 5.5* play + notre dame +155 3* play notre dame under 47 3.3* play
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Grizzlies +1 (4.4* POD) This is the Thunder's 3rd game in 4 days and they go on the road to face the Grizzlies team that's extremely deep and upset the Spurs in the playoffs last year in the first round. I'm not surprised the Spurs won in their opener, but now the Grizzlies return home to get some revenge of their own against the Thunder. The only thing that stopped the Grizzlies in their first game was turnovers and the Thunder are -1.5 in turnovers per game so I don't see it being a huge issue. Grizzlies are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.

5* ncaaf pod
Love Toledo a team that nearly went to Ohio State and won, but allowed Ohio State to come back to win 27-22.

Louisville +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Louisville tonight they can eliminate an aspect of NC State and make them one dimensional and that's the running game which is ranked 107th anyway. Give Strong 4 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional offense that can't protect their QB's and I see Louisville which has been an under dog all year coming up with another big win. I mean they put up 34 points in back to back games to close out the regular season against two very talented defenses in South Florida and Uconn and now they play another talented defense in NC State. Now take a look because NC State has had a much easier schedule to get to this point as they've faced two FCS foes and the average defense as far as total yards allowed was 60th compared to Louisville's opponents which came in at 45th. Louisville had to go up against 5 top 20 rushing defenses from ypc stand point and they themselves are ranked 9th. NC State did not play too well vs. Cincinatti ( Big East Opponent) and FSU who are the closest in scoring defense and rushing defense both in the top 10 too. NC State lost both those games by a combined 14 to 78. Now Florida State and Cinci had a better pass defense and more explosiveness on offense in the regular season so I do not expect a blow out here, but I do expect Louisville, a very young team to benefit big time from these extra practices and they'll continue to do what they do which is win as under dogs. NC State's biggest strength is taking the ball away they're ranked 6th, but Louisville only turned it over a total of 19 times this year and they faced Uconn #3 in takeaways and Rutgers 12th and they won both of those games.

Falcons +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5* NFL POD) These two teams know each other so well and match up pretty evenly as they are built to beat each other. The last 4 games have been decided by 3 points or less. To me Atlanta has now really come together over their last few games and can go punch for punch with the Saints. They also have more balanced in my opinion and the more talented receivers in Julio Jones (finally healthy) and Roddy White and then they got Tony Gonzalez over the middle. Michael Turner though could be the difference he has 50 carries in his last 2 games at New Orleans and it resulted in 265 yards. The run game should be a huge factor in the red zone for Atlanta because you can't really match up one on one with White, Jones or Gonzalez I look for option runs up the gut with Turner walking into the end zone. At the end of the day both teams are playing their best football and it should be close throughout and come down to yet again a field goal. Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 in New Orleans and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

North Carolina +6 (4.4* NCAAF POD); UNC +210 (1* bonus) To me this game is simple. Which team can stop the run and turn the other into a one dimensional team and to me at least the answer is obvious North Carolina. Both teams are quite similar with talented defensive lines and talented sophmore QB's, but the injury to Henry Josey from Missouri went down it was a huge loss as he was averaging over 8 yards per carry. Missouri hasn't been the same. When they played Kansas at the end of the year they averaged just 3.5 ypc on 47 carries and Kansas was last in the nation in run defense from a ypc statistic allowing 6.1. North Carolina has more of a power running game with Giovani Bernard ranked 23rd nationally with 102 yards per game. Last year Missouri got gashed by a power running game in their bowl game and while I think they're more equipped to stop it this year I think they'll have a better day on the ground than Missouri. Missouri is ranked 40th in ypc allowed while North Carolina is ranked 15th. This game should be put into the hands of both talented sophmore QB's in Bryan Renner and James Franklin. Their numbers are very similar and they'll both face struggling pass defenses in UNC 90th in yards allowed, Missouri 91st. Renner however is the guy I'm taking as he's much more accurate #1 in the ACC 68.8% compared to Franklin 63.3%. Renner plays with the poise of an upperclassman and Missouri lacks a true field stretcher with most of their throws coming under neath dinking and dunking where UNC can take some chance to make stops. Meanwhile Renner has Dwight Jones - 6-4 225 who had 79 receptions 1119 yards and 11 TD's. Renner is also averaging 1.3 more yards per attempt. Which QB will have more success in the red zone? To me again advantage to the Tarheels. UNC and Missouri both got to the red zone similar amount of times. Missouri 51 times and UNC 46 times, but Missouri converting 64% into TD while UNC at 72%. Defensively UNC again holding the advantage allowing 4 less attempts this season and holding opponents to 10% less TD's 45 to 55% in the red zone. This is a huge advantage considering both teams were just 60% on field goals this year. In the end both teams are pretty even. UNC is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog while Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on neutral fields. Missouri won't have as much of an advantage here and I think they under estimate UNC's skill expect some talented match ups and one of the better played bowls of the young bowl season.

5.5** ncaab pod