Georgia -170 2* free play

I'll take Georgia on the money line here for a free play.  All my free plays will be on the money line either for favorites or under dogs.  I missed this at a better line, but I'm still confident playing Georgia considering they are the unranked team as favorites.  Georgia is actually the better team and have faced the 45th toughest schedule compared to Arkansas and their 267th.  Georgia has a 7.5% rebound rate advantage in home/away splits and Arkansas's high flying offense really has not faced a defense with an opponent defense strength of schedule ranked 247.  Georgia plays defense as good as any team ranked 19th in adjusted defense and 18th in 2 point % defense where Arkansas will take many of their shots.

Don't miss out on our NCAAB POD as we are up over 100 units in our career on NCAAB TOP PLAYS!

Lions +7 5.5* NFL POD

I will take the Lions here in this spot as the Cowboys really have not played well at home this year with all 4 of their losses coming here.  I really do not trust either QB in this spot, but the Lions defense is much better than the Cowboys and they match up well being able to defend the run.  They were #1 in stopping the run this year and allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards.  They also did all of this with a more challenging schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to hide some of their defensive weaknesses this year by controlling the game with the ground game, but they enter this game with Demarco Murray having nearly 400 carries, around 80 more than any other back.  I think it's a high risk play against a physical defense to back the Cowboys as a TD favorite.  I could easily see Dallas defense getting into trouble against Detroit if they are on the field for too long.  I will take the team with the better defense getting this many points especially when their strength equally matches the strength of the opponent. 

Cardinals +7 -115 buy hook - 5.5* max NFL POD

I suspect this game will jump to 7 by the time the game kicks off, but I'm comfortable with the Cardinals at 6.5 as well.  Carolina has been on fire winning 4 in a row, but they have had the 22nd ranked strength of schedule to get into the playoffs they played teams ranked with some very bad defenses including the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the Browns (23rd).  The point spread is based all off the fact that the Cardinals have no QB, but my friends despite what the media portrays this game of football is about more than just 1 position.

The Cardinals are 11-5 and are off two losses so the public is far down on them and Vegas has set an inflated line here and the value is certainly on the Cardinals.  This is a team that has played Denver, KC, San Diego along with Philly, Dallas and Detroit and their normal division games.  They have the 10th toughest schedule and went 11-5 all without a QB.  I'm trusting Bruce Arian and his coaching ability here.  I expect him to have Ryan Lindley ready to go in this one and I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals win the game outright! 

Wash/Okl St U57 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total is just far too high and man may think that Oklahoma State's offense is turning the corner with 38 points vs. Oklahoma and 28 vs. Baylor, two solid defenses, but in both games they had 14 entering the 4th quarter.  Washington is just too strong up front to allow something like that and they are well coached by Chris Petersen.  Washington's defense has 3 All-American's up front and Oklahoma State's offensive line has yielded 37 sacks during the regular season.  Expect Danny Shelton to give this offense a lot of issues along with Kikaha and Hudson off the edge.  This is a team that put up 9 on TCU and 7 vs. Texas the only 2 teams in the top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Washington is 27th.

On the flip side Washington put up some big points at the end of the year also inflating this total in my opinion, but their offense is ranked 96th in adjusted offense.  This is a team that has not beaten a bowl team all year long, but they have won the games they were supposed to.  They will run the ball 60% of the time which should shorten the game quite a bit considering Washington's strong and experienced offensive line will create issues for Oklahoma State as well.  Look for RB Dwayne Washington to have a strong day running the ball, but when they get into the red zone they will have issues.  Mike Gundy is an excellent coach and his players do not give up.  They have played well in the red zone all year long allowing just 57% conversions.  Washington's offense has had little success here only scoring TD's on 52% of their opportunities and 36% over their last 8 games.  I can easily see Washington winning this game and even getting to 30 points, but their defense is just too strong and Oklahoma State will be starting a QB with little experience.  

Ohio State +8 2.2* play

Florida State +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

Oregon has been extremely impressive to close out the year and probably deserve to be more than a TD favorite, but this is new territory for Florida State who haven’t lost in 2 seasons.  They have not been a dog since 2011 at Clemson and I think they will be extra motivated because of it.  Not only does Florida State have more talent as far as more guys will be NFL draft picks, but I think they have the better QB for a big game like this.  I’m still not sold on what Marcus Mariota can do in a big game and this is his chance to prove his doubters wrong.  Winston has proved it and he should be extra motivated in this spot as a big dog facing the QB that won the Heisman this year.  For Winston everything is behind him as far as what happened off the field and he gets to lead his team against the West Coast guys in Pasadena.

Florida State just never won with glamour this year and that’s the biggest difference between these two teams.  Many feel the ACC is down, but I have to disagree when you look at how they have performed this bowl season.  Boston College played well against Penn State, Duke covered and gave Arizona State who similarly to Oregon was a TD favorite, Clemson just absolutely dominated Oklahoma and Virginia Tech got a nice win as well.  Now North Carolina was a bad team from the start, but there were highlights of a good team at times. 

It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense has opened up with the emergence of Dalvin Cook and the fact that they ran the ball against some pretty good defenses down the stretch including, 5.77 ypc vs. Louisville, 6.00 vs. Miami, 4.41 vs. Florida, and 5.42 vs. Georgia Tech.  Winston won’t have to do it on his own, but having balance from Cook makes him all that more dangerous.  At the end of the day 8.5 points is far too much with Winston in control and a defense that can make plays.  Oregon’s defense has had some pretty bad moments at time this year too and even if Oregon gets a head Florida State is always good for the back door cover.

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS

Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by.  This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them.  This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams.  TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now.  Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win?  West Virginia?  Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest.  This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles.  Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff."  Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them.  I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead.  TCU is an elite offense right?  Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's?  I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. 

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone.  Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring.  TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves.  Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain.  The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average.  TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.

Notre Dame/ LSU Under 52.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

First of all this game will be played on grass with two teams that will want to run the ball before they pass and two defenses that are clearly the strength and give each the best chance to win.  I expect LSU to control this game from start to finish with their veteran offensive line and talented running backs. Notre Dame will get a bit more healthy so I could see their defense stepping up to stop the run which fits their strengths far better.  Notre Dame should play even better knowing the running game is coming without much of a threat from the passing game.  On the flip side Notre Dame's strength is definitely its passing game, but they will face LSU the #1 ranked passing defense from an efficiency perspective. The last time they faced a defense this good was Stanford who they scored only 17 points on at home.

LSU's defense down the stretch was just a lock allowing 3, 10, 13, 17, and 17 points to some pretty good offenses along the way.  I could see this game going over if Notre Dame turns the ball over 4+ times, but otherwise I expect a game that neither team runs away with.  LSU struggles in the red zone so I don't expect them to have the ability to run away with this as they struggle to score down there, but LSU is very good on defense in the red zone allowing just 48.15% so that usually makes up for it.  LSU offenses have been better in years past and have never been able to put up points in bowl games, under 5-1 in their last 6 while Notre Dame is U35-17-1 in their last 53. 

Texas A&M +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

The Aggies will most certainly benefit more from the time off here after they went through a brutal schedule which many sources had as the third toughest schedule.  I had them with the 3rd most difficult schedule and West Virginia at #40.  A&M had a tough physical game they won against Arkansas, and then they played three top 5 ranked teams in Ole Miss, Miss State and Alabama.  All 3 were top 25 run defenses and play a physical brand of football.  They had 13 days off played LA Monroe, and went on the road to beat a top 5 Auburn team at the time showing that they still have the talent to compete with anyone in the country.  They finished up the season against Missouri and LSU who were two of the better teams in the country.

The SEC East was the best division in football that we have ever seen in my opinion and it can wear you down, but now with time to prepare we will see Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin at his best.  Sumlin is a very good coach who is 3-1 in bowl games and even blew out the Big 12 in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  He's got Kyle Allen at QB a highly touted recruit who was playing his best, but the biggest key will be whether or not A&M can run the ball.  In their wins this year they averaged 5.45 ypc and 3.14 in losses.  Lucky enough they face a West Virginia defense they should be able to run on with their speed. You could say the same about West Virginia who also needs to run the ball and A&M's defense has definitely struggled, but the fact that West Virginia will start a QB with less experience and A&M certainly has the pass rush to get after Skyler Howard who faced Kansas State and Iowa State ranked 90th and 121st in pass rush.  A&M was ranked 18th in sack % and will force mistakes in this game as West Virginia was -15 in turnover margin this year with 28 lost. 

A&M will also enjoy a nice special teams advantage as their punter averages 44.5 and the West Virginia return game is among the worst at 3.24 yards per return ranking 124th.

Under 48 5.5* NFL POD

South Carolina +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

The public has pushed this line much too far and I'll jump on it.  The reason the public likes it?  SEC East is in a down year and went 0-4 vs. the ACC the final week of the season, but Miami does not typically play an SEC team.  Teams under Al Golden usually fall quickly and they have lost 3 in a row.  I knew their season was over when they lost to Florida State in dramatic fashion.  I just don't see what Al Golden has accomplished in his career.  He's 55-55 as a head coach and I get he's had tremendous obstacles to over come but really with the talent he has he hasn't been close to having a break out year.  A lot of people have said the ACC is having a down year and really where has Miami's top win come fro?  They beat Duke at home and they were supposed to.  Meanwhile South Carolina beat Georgia, and they went on the road to beat Florida.  They also have a dual offense with a ton of experience and a ton of guys leaving for the NFL so motivation of playing in their last football game is very high.

At the end of the day the Independence Bowl is not very exciting for an SEC program like South Carolina, but the motivation is that they are playing Miami.  They also want to finish with a winning record.  The last time a Steve Spurrier coached team didn't was 1987. 

NC State/UCF Under 49 4.4* NCAAF POD

I am playing the under in this game as I just think the match up is right for it.  Neither team has a dual offense that can pass and run and both run the ball more because of that.  In close games they will run the ball even more (over 60% of the time) and that's what we are going to have on our hands here tonight.  I would lean towards NC State, but you just can't fade O'Leary in a bowl game.  I think UCF's offense is just not very good and it all starts up front where they ranked 111th in adjusted line yards.  I think they will have issues with an athletic NC State defensive line which just got finished holding UNC's potent offense to 7 points and 207 total yards.

On the other side of the ball you have NC State coming off 35 and 42 point efforts but against sub par defenses.  UCF is a dual threat defense they can stop both the run and pass and are ranked 4th in yards per play.  NC State has had 4 games against top 30 defensive yards per play units and have averaged 14 points.  They also won't have as much luck in the red zone against Central Florida who is holding opponents to 44% TD percentage so I expect a lot of field goals.  On the flip side UCF is one of the worst offenses in the red zone with 50% TD percentage and NC State's defensive unit holding opponents to 58%, but take out Georgia Tech and Florida State and they are holding opponents to 44%.  Expect both teams to move the ball at times, but I don't expect a lot of TD's in this game.  Central Florida has the neutral field advantage having to travel less than 100 miles compared to NC State at 601 but the reverse line movement on the spread hints to me this is going to be a close game and a low scoring one at that. 

San Diego State -2.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams really had a down year compared to their standards.  Navy is used to winning the Commander Chief's trophy and San Diego State is used to being in contention in their conference, but both will get to a bowl game again.  For Navy I just feel like they have too much to over come.  San Diego State is playing a home game here in their own field and Navy is 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games.  San Diego State will have 14 extra days to prepare for the triple option and it should not be much trouble for them. 

Both teams need to run to win and that's what they hang their hat on, but Navy has issues stopping the run while San Diego State has been more consistent in that area.  The Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is no stranger to preparing for a triple option attack.  He faces Air Force every year and due to where they are located would face Army each year.  They have won their last 8 games vs. Army/Navy/Air Force dating back to the 2010 season with margin of victories around 14.6 points on average.  This is just too much in a short period of time for Navy to come off the high of beating Navy go all the way to the other side of the country and beat a team playing at home that has extra preparation and is used to preparing for your offense. 

BYU +2 4.4* NCAAF POD

I like BYU here in this game for a vareity of reasons.  First of all only 1 guy on Memphis team has bowl experience.  BYU looked worse than they did down the stretch and they will be as healthy as they have been all year int his game with the exception of Taysom Hill obviously, but this team did not seem to miss a beat without Hill.  Justin Fuente is the new hot thing for coaching given what he did with Memphis this year, but he did it in one of the worst conferences.  In fact his last 6 opponents offenses ranked no better than 94th in yards per play.  That will make any defense look elite.  Bronco Mendenhall quietly leads a team of men who will be focused and experienced in this game and certainly not distracted by Miami Beach.  Mendenhall is 4-1 in his last 5 bowl games and 3-0 against non-major conference teams.

BYU's defense is every bit as good as Memphis and they did it in a better conference facing teams like Boise State and in non conference they went up against Cal and Texas.  When Memphis stepped up in competition facing UCLA they allowed 42 points.  BYU as I mentioned before did not skip a beat with Christian Stewart taking over at QB.  In fact he finished with 22 TD's and 6 interceptions.  In adjusted opponent efficiency BYU's offense ranked 33rd to Memphis at 84th.  Memphis offense needs to run the ball to win.  They have 24 TD's and 4.61 yards per carry in wins, but 2.81 and 4 TD's in losses.  BYU is one of the best teams in run defense year in and year out and Memphis does not pose quite the threat through the air.  When BYU can concentrate on stopping the run the defense has great success and I think it will here again.  Another thing that would scare me about Memphis is the fact that they relied heavily on turnover to win games.  BYU only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 4 games. 

Steelers -2.5 3.3* play

close your eyes and picture Steelers vs. Chiefs on neutral field.  Who would win or who would be favored?  The oddsmaker's are saying it's the Chiefs, and I may seem like a square here today, but I'm taking the Steelers.  The Steelers defense has been horrible and the Chiefs offense looked great a week ago, but I find it hard to believe the Chiefs offense can look that good back to back weeks.  The majority of the year the Chiefs offense has struggled and even though the Steelers struggle on defense I still think this defense can put together a solid game against a one dimensional attack.  The Chiefs still don't have a WR with a TD reception this year while the Steelers are #1 in the league in offensive yards per play.

The Steelers have a balanced offense and the entire strategy of the Chiefs defense is getting to the QB.  That is just not going to happen when you have one of the best QB's in the league and a balanced offense.  At this time of the year I like to say defense wins championship and the Chiefs definitely have the better defense but they are flawed.  They can't stop the run 30th in the league allowing 4.9 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect when their terrific pass rushers don't get to the QB. Big Ben has been sacked just 1.49% of his drop backs over the last 3 weeks.  I expect the Steelers to win to stay pace with the their division foes.

UTAH/COL ST U58 5.5* NCAAF POD

I will gladly take the under here and we are getting tremendous value here based on a few scenarios.  First of all Colorado State has put up some points and Utah's defense the last two weeks of the season has looked average, but give Kyle Whittingham extra time to prepare for an offense and he usually shuts them down.  Facing opponents with extra rest he held 3 power 5 conference opponents to an average of 18 points per game.  Colorado State has had a very nice season, but their head coach left for Florida and they have faced some bad defenses along the way.  Only 3 ranked in the top 70 and they averaged just 21 points against those never topping 24.  I mean they faced 128th, 126th, 124th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective.  You are going to put up points against those type of defenses.  Utah is not as bad as they looked the last two weeks of the season and their defense will rebound.

For Colorado State it all starts with the passing game.  In wins they have a 180 QB rating and in losses they have a 129.  Utah has one of the best front seven's in the country and rank #2 in pass rush.  Colorado State faced 4 teams with top 40 pass rushing units and they struggled against all 4 never scoring more than 24 points and going just 2-2.  Now this will still be a tough game for Utah to win and that's why I won't play them ATS.  However, the match up in their favor is Colorado State's rushing defense.  Colorado State also lacks depth on their front and rank 81st in ypc run defense.  Utah's offense with Devontae Booker should be able to run and pick up first downs while moving the clock.  This team likes to win those low scoring game which I think this will be in the end. 

Cowboys +3.5 3.3* Play

I liked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now I certainly can not go against that just 3 weeks later.  Tony Romo is a different QB here tonight in my opinion as he just really was no healthy on Thanksgiving.  The Cowboys have the revenge, but they have 3 extra days of rest which is a huge huge deal at this point in the season.  The Cowboys offensive line will have a deciding advantage when you look at the physical game the Eagles had to play just a week ago against the Seahawks.  It's also interesting to note that the Cowboys have played better on the road on defense all year long.  That's mainly due to the fact that the Cowboys will stick to the running game longer on the road.  It's the best game plan for them and I think it works tonight just because of the extra rest and given the opponent that the Eagles had to face a week ago.

What is also impressive is that this Dallas offense is #1 in third down conversion % overall and on the road due to their excellent run game.  The Cowboys also won't have to deal with a stacked box if the Eagles are smart about it as a healthy Tony Romo can pull off the play action game better than any QB.  The extra game preparation off a loss with revenge will give the Cowboys an excellent chance to keep the Eagles off guard while the defense should have a good game against Mark Sanchez who for the first time this year is facing a defense for the second time.  A lot of people are giving Chip Kelly credit for what he does following a loss, but... 3-0 This year and his wins have come against the Texans, Titans, and Rams which neither of those 3 teams are going to the playoffs.  Last year this Cowboys team whose defense was atrocious held the Eagles to 3 poitns in their own building.  That was after this elite offense that was putting up 30pts off back to back games.  Chip Kelly is good, but it's worth mentioning he's 5-14-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Vikings +8 5.5* NFL POD

In the last match up Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with 0 TD and 3 interceptions against a good defense, but Bridgewater has really progressed since then and this Vikings team has been covering games.  I still think the Lions are over rated and although their offense is healthy they face a Vikings defense that knows them pretty damn well.  The Lions have only scored 30 points 3x this year all vs. shitty defenses which the Vikings are in the average to above average tier.  The Lions are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a 30+ point game in their previous game.  It's a good trend to look at, because just as you think Matthew Stafford is about to turn the corner he comes up with a bad performance.  Stafford is a records hoarder, but I don't see him as a leader of a team that can win meaningful games in December.  I won't be shocked if the Vikings come up with the divisional upset here.  The Vikings are playing their best when and where it matter, in the red zone.  Over their last 3 games they have allowed opponents to score just 30% of the time and they themselves have scored 75% of the time.  Those trends continue here today.

Colts -1 / Bengals +8.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week

The Colts know if they win this game they lock up the division and I think they should win easily while the Bengals go on the road to play a Browns team getting a ton of credit right now.  It is still the Bengals division to win and I think they put up a fight with the teaser giving us great value here.  Manziel makes his first start against a very good defense and I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a lot of trouble here.  Welcome to the NFL Manziel on a huge stage with a game your team needs you to win.

Ohio State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Ohio State +175 1.5* play

This has tight game written all over it.  Wisconsin has soared as almost what you’d consider to be a heavy favorite.  Ohio state has had issues vs. the run the last few weeks and Wisconsin obviously has the best rushing offense they have faced.  A lot of experts are saying whoever runs the ball better wins this game, but I’m not so sure.  Ohio State actually is allowing more yards per run in their wins than their losses and Wisconsin is rushing for the same in their wins and losses.  I think the team that wins is going to be the team whose QB plays better and plays better in the red zone, but either way we are looking at a conservative game late with the QB play just not being there and two extremely talented defenses against the run.

Ohio State has Cardale Jones coming in and I think it’s harder for Wisconsin because they really do not know what they are going to see.  Urban Meyer also is very good with QB’s in his system and I’m not worried one bit.  I mean try to think back and tell me who the last bad QB was under Meyer?  Even Kenny Guiton put up 14 TD and 2 INT last year while Miller was out.  Shit if you look back to his Utah days Urban Meyer has produced a QB rating the last 9 seasons he’s coached of 16th, 3rd, 37th, 24th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 10th, and 3rd which is ridiculous.  So whatever line they moved for this game because of the QB play I’m thinking we have value being on the side of a coach that’s better than his opponent.

I also think Joel Stave is going to have a lot of issues moving the ball when he has to.  In Wisconsin losses he has a 51 QB rating and in wins he has a 147.  Ohio State has only allowed 7 passing TD’s and has 13 INT’s in conference play.  They are +5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is -2.  Wisconsin is also not very good in red zone defense which should be the difference as they are allowing 72% TD rate when opponents get there.

Oregon/Arizona U74.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total makes a lot of sense when you see the first game got to 50+ points with Oregon playing with 4 new offensive linemen.  I would have leaned towards Oregon to cover the spread, but I did not get it at -13.5 in time.  I actually like the total play, because I think Oregon's defense is going to shut this Arizona offense out.  This is an offense that's not as good as it was in previous years while the Oregon defense has been improving.  Arizona is not running the ball as well as it did last year and we get a high total based on what?

Arizona has scored 42 points the last 2 weeks, but in one game they needed 4 turnovers, and the other they only had 333 yards, but relied on big plays.  I don't see either happening on Friday night.  This game is also on the grass which should slow the game down a bit if Arizona does not already play their part in doing so with their run first mentality.  Oregon's offense has struggled against this 3-3-5 defense that Arizona plays and I think it will at times again.  I don't see them getting to 50 points while I could easily see them in the 40's.  I see a max score of 45-28 or 42-31, but more than likely this Oregon defense is going to hold Arizona under 30 points which should get us the under in this one.  This was a game that was 7-3 at the half during the regular season and both defenses held their opposing offense under 500 total yards.

Teaser of the Week Bonus - 10-1 This Season

Northern Illinois -0.5 / Cincinnati -1 (See Free Pick for N. ILL reasoning)

 This team has a ton to play for on Saturday while Houston really not so much.  With a win the Bearcats could share the league title and they should easily be motivated to do so.  What is impressive is that this team only lost to Ohio State, Memphis (best team in the AAC), and Miami (2 of 3 of those were on the road).  Houston has beaten the teams they should and lost to the ones they should and this is just too much for them to do.  Go on the road with your one dimensional offense in the last game of the season and face a team that features the best offense you have faced all year  and beat them while spoiling their chances at winning their conference title.  I don't think it will happen and I love the fact that Cincinnati who is not as strong on defense has been dominant in the red zone and much better in conference play.  Take out the Miami and Ohio State games and this defense is just fine.  Houston is going to have issues scoring in this game.  Houston also has to face Cinci a top 30 offense in yards per play.  Houston has not faced 1 other school this year that is in the top 50.

 Broncos +1 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Broncos here I have been saying for weeks that the Chiefs are over rated. Everyone thinks of the Chiefs as a top tier defense and for the most part they are, but this defense has one glaring weakness and it is stopping the run.  The Chiefs are ranked 32nd allowing 5.0 yards per carry and they are allowing 5.6 over their last 3 alone.  Denver's 3 road losses came to the Rams where they only rushed the ball 10 times, the Patriots 17 times and the Seahawks 20-36.  Denver should take the lead first in this game and use the running game to close this one out.  They are undefeated when they run for more than 100 yards and I think they can easily get that tonight if they stay dedicated.  Peyton Manning will not hesitate to hand the ball off more times than he throws especially in a game where his defense can handle their own facing one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Chiefs go up against the Broncos run defense which is #2 in the league and #1 in rushing defense on the road allowing 3.1 yards per carry.  I think it's just a bad match up and this the type of game the Broncos made acquisitions for in the off season to win.  I see them winning big and I'll take the points.

LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD

Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with?  This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion.  Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength.  LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness.  This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses.  First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster.

Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it.  A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month.  Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama.  LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news.  LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run.  In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well.  They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th).  However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins.  Key to the game - Run the damn ball!  On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit.  All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run.  Now A&M is pure trash against the run.  Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed.  They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate.  LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas.  Watch what happens in their last game of the season.

LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards.  They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch.  Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose.  In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd.  This is the best pass defense they have faced all year.  A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55.  LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone.  Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%.  

Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined.  Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home.

Dallas Cowboys -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

There is no way I can trust Mark Sanchez in this spot.  Philadelphia’s defense is not good enough to carry this team and they are susceptible against the run on the road allowing 4.4 yards per carry which is a full yard more than what they allow at home.  Dallas is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per carry behind arguably the best offensive line in the league.  The Eagles have all three of their losses at home and have not faced a team in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry since the Redskins in Week 3 who they gave up 34 points to and barely hung on at home 37-34.  Dallas is #1 in adjusted line yards at 4.57 compared with Philadelphia at 3.34 ranking 30th.  Dallas has found ways to win all season long and their aggressive defensive style should force some critical mistakes for the Eagles on the road. 

Teasing Lions -1 / U53.5 for 3.3* play BONUS

Lions losing 4 out of the last 5 games ATS, Bears 2 straight wins and covers at home against crappy teams.  Value on the Lions.  The Lions have gone under by an average of 9.6 points per game.  In their 8 games against non-elite offenses the Bears are allowing under 20 points per game.  Both offenses have star players, but have been underperforming this year as the Bears are ranked 17th in yards per play while the Detroit Lions are ranked 27th.

Also both defenses have been great in the red zone. Chicago allowing just 51% TD % in the red zone ranking 11th, and 48% on the road while the Detroit Lions come in at 12th, but allowing just 42.86% on the road.  Detroit’s offense who you would give an edge at home is ranked 24th in red zone TD% and is only converting 46.67%.  I think this is a lot of points on a short week with both offenses really not blowing anyone away.  Overall I think the Lions have the stronger defense and are the more desperate team following 2 straight losses on the road while Chicago is off 2 straight wins.

Texans -1.5 -105 5.5* NFL POD

USC +4 4.4* NCAAF POD

USC has lost the last two years to Brett Hundley, but this year feels different.  UCLA's defense gave up 37 points to Colorado and 30 to Washington and those are two offenses that do not scare you.  Cody Kessler has NFL players on his side and he's been playing just as good as Brett Hundley on the other side and USC features the better defense led by stud Leonard Williams.  In fact I think USC has the better players on both sides when you watch WR Nelson Agholor.  Kessler will have plenty of time to pass considering UCLA is 109th at getting to the QB.  UCLA's defense is also not stopping the run at all at home allowing 4.48 ypc and while USC has not been a physical imposing running game, Javorius Allen is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has 8 100 yard games.  This is where USC will win the game, because on the flip side they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry in conference play.

Speaking of which in conference play these two teams have similar statistics.  What is surprising actually is the fact that USC's QB play is slightly better and USC's run defense is allowing over 1 yard less on the ground.  If they can contain Hundley they win this game going away, but I think it will be more difficult than that.  The key stats though are 3rd down offense, defense and TD percentage in the red zone along with turnover margin.  USC in conference play has better numbers in all 5 categories.  On neutral field I would probably set them as a 2 point favorite so I think getting 4 points on the road gives us value.  USC behind better coaching should finally do something they couldn't do the last two years and that's beat UCLA. 

Washington -0.5 /Stanford 0.5 6pt teaser 4.4*

Washington is back home off a big loss with a fumble in the 4th quarter and they get to play an Oregon State team that is pretty happy with itself after facing Arizona State at home and crushing their dreams at a spot in the top 4 in the college playoff.  A hangover going on the road is inevitable here for Oregon State who has a shaky offensive line and has been unable to protect their senior QB Sean Mannion.  NT Danny Shelton is one of the best in the nation and DE Andrew Hudson is no slouch as they are 16th in sack % and should dominate this game at the point of attack.  Oregon State is only converting 25% of their third downs in conference play.

Stanford beat Cal by 50 points last year.  Their offense has been shaky all year and this spread deserves to be where it is, but Stanford's offense should finally get going here against Cal, a team that is 110th in yards per play on defense.  Everyone is up on this Cal team and they covered the spread with luck last week against USC.  Stanford meanwhile has looked awful, but I see them turning it up here.  They put up 30+ points in big wins in each of their match ups against teams ranked worse than 100 in the nation in yards/play allowed.  Cal's offense has looked great, but they have been shut down when they have played good defenses and Stanford still has that going for them ranked 3rd in yards allowed.

Raiders +7.5 4.4* NFL POD; Raiders +295 1* play

This is a perfect let down spot for a Chiefs team that has been playing over their head.  Why can't the Raiders break their losing streak? The Chiefs have been outgained in 3 games in a row yet they are 3-0.  Besides this is a division game and the Raiders should be up for this.. It's almost their Super Bowl in a way and the Chiefs come off a very very big win against Seattle and have to go on the road before getting Denver at home the following week.  Off a big win with a big game on deck facing an 0-10 team on the road.  It's hard for any team to not look past the Raiders right now.  The Raiders only lost 24-30 in Seattle and I think their offense has more potential than Kansas City. 

K State +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD

Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8.  Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss.  This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU.  Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together.  Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation.  He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest.  His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite.  Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game.

Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper.  Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run.  Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB.  Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not.  West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play.  Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice.  Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia.  Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times.  All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th.  They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins.

I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career.  Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's.  He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play.  West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win.  Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues.

Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation.  Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play.  In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's.  Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts.  Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities.  

[b]Seahawks +1.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]

The Seahawks are a dog on the road to the Chiefs?  They have no business being a dog here considering the Chiefs have been really lucky of late.  Last week the Bills fumbled 3 times including once in the end zone and their head coach passed up field goals that would have given them the win over the Chiefs.  The same thing the week before as the Jets outgained them by nearly 100 yards.  Yes, the Jets out gained them and now they are favored against a team that is in the top 10 in yards/play in offense and defense.

The Broncos are the only opponent in the top 14 in yards/play offense that this Chiefs team has played and they lost.  The Seahawks will win this game and look forward to their next game against the Cardinals to reclaim the division.

[b] Packers +1/Saints -1 4.4* 6 point teaser[/b]

The Saints suffered a rare loss at home to the 49ers under Sean Payton that just does not happen. They had won 20 straight prior to that and are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 games.  Now the Saints get the Bengals angry after losing at home and getting embarrassed on Thursday night, but the Saints are in a thick division hunt and I doubt they care about that.  I look for the Saints to win this game, but 7 points is a lot and it’s mainly due to the fact that the Bengals looked awful vs. the Browns.  The reality is the Bengals are not that bad, but I don’t see them winning this game. I’ll take the Saints in a teaser with….

The Packers.  The Packers have been almost unbeatable at home.  Aaron Rodgers is just too good and he’s beaten good QB after good QB.  He has yet to throw an interception at home and the Eagles are coming in high off their win with their new QB Mark Sanchez, but now Sanchez has to win on the road against a very good team.  I have trust in Sanchez in this system, but he’s got to put up 30+ points here and I don’t see it happening not the way the Packers have played at home.

Arkansas pk 5.5* SEC GOY

Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky.  It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State.  Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did.  Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State.  I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win.  They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama.  This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game.

This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense.  If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes.  Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas.  Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game.  LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good.

LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry.  LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road.  They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming.  Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT.  He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game.  Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home.

LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did.  Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check.  Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home.  Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball.  All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball.  Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession.  Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road.  In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night. 

[b]Cal +14.5 3.3* POD[/b]

The only teams USC has blown out this year have been Fresno, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State.  All of those teams are unlikely to go bowling with a combined record of 13-25.  California is definitely experiencing a resurgence here this season and even their losses are not that bad.  The big losses against Washington and Oregon were due to fumble issues the offense had otherwise they played well with both but had nearly half their turnovers all year in that game.  Cal played right with UCLA and Arizona in 2 games decided by 6 points.  

USC has had issues stopping opponent passing games and Jared Goff should have another big day and improve on his 27 TD and 4 interceptions this year.  Goff is also doign it in the conference with 21 TD and 3 INT's.  He's played well on the road too and USC's pass rush has been non-existent ranking 89th in sack % and they are 100th in passing yards allowed.  USC also has some bigger games up next @UCLA and Notre Dame and could be looking ahead a bit.

[b]Bills +10.5 / Cincinnati +7.5 3.3* Teaser[/b] 

BILLS -1.5 5.5* NFL POD

Tampa Bucs +3 2.2*/

Cardinals -1/Packers -1.5 6pt tease 4.4* play

Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD

This is my play of the day.  A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten.  I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska.  However, I like their chances here at home.  Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%.  Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second.  Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. 

Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated.  He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes.  The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home.  Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush.  Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who?  The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech.  The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more.

Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25.  Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75.  So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides.  Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense.  For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State.  Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions.  The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run.  

Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year.  They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler. 

JAZZ +3 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Bengals -6 4.4* NFL POD[/b]

I'll go with the home team here on the short week.  The Browns are not a good football team despite their record and they are getting more credit than they deserve.  The Browns are 5-3, but their last 4 wins came against the Titans (big come back), Oakland, Tampa Bay, and PIttsburgh (who was playing their 4th road game 5 weeks).  The other 3 are a combined 3-21 and they lost to the Jaguars 24-6 in between.  They were very lucky to even get by the Titans at the time when Jake Locker got injured before the half when they were trailing by 25 points to the Titans.  This is not a team of destiny and they are going to fade fast especially without Alex Mack.  Without Mack the rushing offense went form averaging 154 to 54.

On the other side the Bengals who opened the year as everyone's dark horse to challenge the Broncos for the AFC Championship are 5-2-1.  However, looka t who they have played, New England, Baltimore 2x, and the Colts.  Those are some of the best QB's in the league for you fantasy football fans out there.  Now the Bengals get to face the Browns unimpressive passing game and a rushing game that's not going anywhere especially on the road.   This is a very good home team and I see them dominating this game as they have to in order to keep their distance in a tight division.  

NY Jets +10 5.5* NFL POD & Game of the Month!

lock this in early as the line will surely go down.  I really like Mike Vick with a full week to prepare and play with this offense he really adds another dynamic that Geno Smith clearly did not.  Also as bad as the Jets looked they actually out gained the Bills on Sunday and doubled their # of first downs.  6 turnovers will get you beat no matter what.  At this point the Jets have to go back to the run and adding Mike Vick's versatile style to the mix can only help with a full week of reps with the first team.

For the Chiefs their offense is not explosive enough to take advantage of the Jets weaknesses which is in the pass defense.  The Jets are absolutely stout in the front 7 and have one of the best defensive lines in football.  The Chiefs will run first and pass second even with Andy Reid and their offensive line is 28th in pass protection and they are just 25th in passing yards per pass attempt.  When you look at the Jets secondary they have played 3 of the top 5 passing teams + Tom Brady.  Right now stock is as low as it's ever been for the Jets and I'll jump on them to cover this spread on the road.

San Jose State +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State is looking like the real deal at 7-1 winning on the road against Boston College.  IN all three of their close games and losses have come against top 60 pass defenses.  Grayson leads Colorado State with a 165 QB rating in 4 conference games, but he’s not as good on the road (136).  They won by 3 vs. Utah State who has the 30th ranked pass defense, by 3 against BC who has the 57th, and they lost against Boise State by 13 who is ranked 47th.  Enter San Jose State who is ranked #1 in opponent QB rating, #1 in opponent yards/attempt, and #1 in opponent completion %.  They even held Auburn to 135 yards passing and they have allowed just 1 passing TD all year without any QB passing for more than 150 yards.

Part of their dominance is nobody tries to pass on them, but Colorado State is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in the running game and will have issues on the road against this team.  San Jose State would have a better record if it weren’t for their -7 TO margin in losses.  Good news for them Colorado State’s defense is below average and has only forced a total of 7 turnovers on the season.  A further look at common opponents and San Jose was +194 vs. Wyoming on the road, Col State was +104 at home.  As well as +190 vs. Nevada and while Colorado State was -12 on the road.  San Jose State has been a dog 2 of the last 3 years but have won all of these meetings.  Colorado State is a very good team, but San Jose State has already played Navy, Minnesota and Auburn so this is nothing new for them.

Royals -138 4* mlb pod

Saints -2.5 5.5* nfl play of the day

Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright.  The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs.  Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home.  Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. 

Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies.  Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run.  Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs.  I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far.  Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop.  The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville.  Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses.  Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB.  What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game.

Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense.  Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success.  Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home.  Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season.  The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents.  Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced.  The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road.  Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%.

The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home.  Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. 

Giants +100 4* MLB POD

Saints +115 5.5* NFL POD

If you are going to win on the road in the NFL you better be able to protect your QB and run the ball.  A quick look and we know how dominating the Lions have been up front as they are leading the league in sack %, but a quick look reveals they have yet to face an offensive line in the top 15 of the league.  The Saints are 3rd in protecting their QB and they do a good job in run blocking to as the Saints are 2nd averaging 5.2 ypc.  Here is a look at the pass protection units the Lions have faced this year... 31st, 18th, 22nd, 25th, 16th, and 23rd.   They lost to both the 18th and 16th pass protection units and I think the Saints are desperate for a win.

The Saints off a bye and they will come into this game a little healthier and ready to turn their season around.  This team has always been a bad road team, but I'm just not that impressed with the Lions this year and this is a tough spot for them playing the Saints who are 2nd in 3rd down conversions to go along with their offensive line play against the pass and run.  Detroit is also without Calvin Johnson most likely which is definitely worth a few points.  I still think Mathew Stafford is one of the more over rated QB's blessed by having a freak of nature at WR for his career.  On the flip side Detroit is 30th in protecting Stafford and 31st with just 3.2 ypc.  IF there was ever an opportunity for the Saints to turn it around on defense this is the game.  

Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games.  They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT.  Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times.  MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards.  Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards.

Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense.  They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas.  The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times.  Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year.  Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well.  IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams.

The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East.  Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15.  Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game.  Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright.  Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated.  Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well.  So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win.  Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite.  As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team.  How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down?  Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year.  They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building.

Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry.  Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright.  Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush.  USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that.  Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion.  Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense.  They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle.

Royals +105 4* MLB POD[/b]

I trust the Royals pitching at home.  Wei Yen Chen looked like crap down the stretch for the third year in a row and in my opinion he's not used to throwing over 200+ innings which has caused ERA's over 5 in September in his career.  The Royals will go with Jeremy Guthrie who has a very high pitching IQ and is used to throwing a lot of innings and can come up with the occasional gem.  He's pitched to the ground ball and the Orioles will have issues hitting it out of this ball park.  Teams that rely heavily on the HR in the playoffs typically struggle and the Royals arguably have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing Guthrie up.  I expect the Royals to do all they can to get the 3-0 lead on the Orioles tonight. 

UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road.  First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28.  Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game.  I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country.

Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run.  Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both.  At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss.  Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game.  At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. 

Falcons -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

Listen both of these teams were supposed to have a better record at this point in the season, but they don't.  Bottom line is the Falcons are home and their home field advantage is probably worth more than 3 points.  Falcons are averaging over 500 yards at home while the Bears are averaging less than 300 on the road and though it has a lot to do with the competition both faced I think in the end it will be the Falcons that have more capability to move the ball with a balanced offense.  Atlanta is capable of moving the ball via Matt Ryan but this team is also running the ball well in the top 10 in yards per rush.  That's a big issue for this Bears defense that is not your Father's Bears defense.  The Bears have shown that a good running game and a good passing game can beat them.  Chicago is ranked 21st vs. the run and 25th in yards per pass attempt.  Atlanta #3 in the red zone in TD% and #1 in yards/play.  Falcons major advantage at home and need this game.

USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite.  Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses?  Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game.  Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58.  Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL.

First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it.  Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy.  I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home.  When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense.  USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success.  USC is also tough against the run despite their rank.  Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense.

Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions.  He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense.  Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents.  Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190.  Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain.  Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites.  USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games.  Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense.  

WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD

BYU/UCF U45 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense.

Titans -1 5.5* NFL POD

This won't be the most exciting game I give you that, but I like the Titans to get back on track and win at home.  They get Jake Locker back who is still an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst.  The Titans have had a tough schedule to start facing 4 playoff teams in my opinion.  They won at KC who looked great at home vs. the Patriots on Monday, they lost to Dallas who arguably has the best offensive line in the league, at Indy to a very good team, and at the Bengals to a team that has many picking them as the team that can beat Peyton Manning.  Not a lot of cupcakes on the schedule there, but facing the Browns this week and Jaguars next week their is potential for the Titans to be sitting at 3-3. 

The Browns are ranked 27th vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run and 31st in yards allowed per play.  Titans should be able to move the ball and even though the Browns are off a bye it won't matter.  Titans are actually 1-3 because they have turned the ball over and can not convert on third downs.  They have faced 3 of the top 10 3rd down defenses, but today they face the Browns defense allowing 38.5 yards per drive (ranked 28th in the league).  Cleveland is also 18th in the league in forced turnovers.  

UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML

UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country.  I'm still not buying this team at all.  I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %.  UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %.  Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %.  Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks.

What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line.  Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425.  I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible.  UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game.  UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure.

Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times.  It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home.  One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin.  Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball.  Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket.

[b]Cardinals +157 4* MLB POD[/b]

This is a fragile Dodgers team and now that they lost in the fashion that they did with their ace on the mound I don't think they can recover.  Their is no glue in the club house and those type of teams just don't go on to win the World Series I don't care how talented you are.  Lance Lynn has enjoyed a great season particularly in road starts with an ERA under 2.50.  This line offers us plenty of value and the Cardinals are no strangers to the post season.  

Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous.  This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion.  Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th.  No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed.  Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt.  Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change.  Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already.  

Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion.  Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win.  Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home.  They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection.  To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's.  While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. 

Orioles -105 4.5* MLB POD

Detroit is not made for this right now and Baltimore just has too good of an overall team.  The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander and the name is big which is giving us value on the Orioles, but Verlander has not been himself all year with a 4.54 ERA.  If you take the name away and see the odds and you see the bullpen advantage that the Orioles have and they are home you'd be all over this line.  However, the fact that Verlander is a power arm it's moving money towards Detroit.  I'm just not buying it right now. 

Wei Yen Chen had an average first half, but he seemed to get stronger as the year went on.  He's a better overall option than Justin Verlander here.  He posts a 3.54 ERA on the year 2.76 since the All Star break over 13 starts and the Tigers never got to face him. Chen won't have to go very deep into this game all the manager is asking for him is to get to 5 innings and they hand it over to one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, Detroit has a 4.29 ERA ranked 27th, but a 6.84 ERA over their last 10 games compared to the Orioles who have a 2.12 ERA.  It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers over their last 10 games have struggled vs. LHP which they'll face today, hitting .179 and scoring 0.82 runs per 9. 

UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it.  Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game.  Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20.  Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach.  UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st.

Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time.  However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV.  Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards.  UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State.  They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments.  Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog.  Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year."  I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV."  It just goes to show you where both teams are.  UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up.

Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency.  We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn.  He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's.  I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary.  Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance.  Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight.

Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent.  UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run.  Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV.  I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards.  UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. 

I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. 

[b]Royals +101 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

I will take the home team all day long despite Jon Lester being on the mound with a ton of post season experience.  The A's offense really struggled down the stretch and they were not very good on the road in the second half of the season.  Really since they made the trade for Lester this offense has sputtered without Cespedes in the middle of the line up and I don't see it changing here against James Shields.  

Shields was dominant down the stretch 34:5 K:BB ratio over his last 6 starts alone and the Athletics line up has a .215 average with an OPS

Patriots -3 +115 4* NFL POD

There is tremendous value right now on the Patriots.  They have not looked good on offense and the defense has carried them through their two wins on the season.  Their defense is definitely improved and go up against a Chiefs team that is particularly weak.  The start of the season has definitely changed a lot of the public's perception on the Patriots, but this team will be just fine and in the mix to go to the Super Bowl again by the end of the season.  The offensive line is having growing pains, but I think we see an improvement this week and the offense will surely benefit.  Most of the public is thinking about the fact that the Chiefs went to Miami and dominated 34-15 while the Patriots lost 20-33.  I'm not.. This team always gets up for Monday night covering 9 of their last 13.

I also like the Patriots for the unfortunate fact that the Chiefs are down a lot of starters already early in the season.  They are without 2 opening day starters on offense and have replaced those guys with two rookies and on defense they are without 4 starters from their opening day roster as well.  Bottom line this Patriots offense has nowhere to go but up and with Brady in the mix that's going to happen sooner rather than later.  What better time than on Monday night with many doubting the 2014 Patriots.  Their defense has been elite allowing 272 yards per game which is good for 2nd in the league.  KC's defensive unit is ranked 16th.  New England is #1 from a yards/play perspective while KC is 19th.  On offense KC is ranked 29th in yards per play while the Patriots are ranked 32nd.. Again not going to last with Brady.  I expect the offensive line issues to be a thing of the past and we will see a different game plan here tonight. 

TB Bucs +9 5.5* MAX NFL POD
Am I crazy after the Bucs lost 14-56 in embarrassing fashion against the Atlanta Falcons? Maybe I am, but when you parlay that with the fact that the Steelers dominated the Panthers on the road and I think we get tremendous value. Oddsmakers know they can get away with a high spread here, but in my opinion Tampa is not as bad as they looked (5 turnovers had a lot to do with it), and the Steelers are not as good as they looked.

For one the Steelers have some major issues on defense with the loss of 3 top defenders. They are so thin on defense they brought James Harrisson back. Talk about being desperate. Tampa will likely start MIke Glennon here and that makes me more confident going into this match up when you look at what Pittsburgh has struggled with which is defending the run. The Steelers uncharacteristically are allowing 5+ yards per carry while the Bucs average about that. Plenty of value here on the Bucs who should be able to move the chains with their passing game now that the Steelers are without Ike Taylor and the running game with Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin.

SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl.

I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry.  They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors.

Notre Dame has looked great but against who?  We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run.

Middle Tenn +130 4* NCAAF POD

MTSU has plenty of value here coming into the game as the forgotten team in the C-USA battle.  MTSU is capable of moving the ball on this Old Dominion defense that should get pushed around quite a bit tonight and a rough time dealing with QB Austin Grammer and their 3 running backs.  Grammer will run it as well which will give Old Dominion a different offense to prepare for.  Old Dominion is also riding high off a victory on the road against the defending champions in Rice so a let down is very possible here.

The schedules just don't compare as MTSU has faced a solid Memphis team which nearly beat UCLA on the road, Minnesota out of the Big Ten on the road and a very good Western Kentucky team.  Old Dominion is pretty one dimensional in my opinion with the passing game and Taylor Heinickie and every week there is more tape on him to help prepare.  Bottom line against tougher competition MIddle Tenn has played better where it counts which is on 3rd downs and in the red zone.  Old Dominion's defense can't get off the field allowing 50% conversions and 76% TD's in the red zone.  Compare that with Middle Tennessee's 42% defense (38% on the road) and 43% TD rate in the red zone on defense and you have a significant advantage.  This is a big conference game and I'll lean on experience as Old Dominion suffers a let down here after their big victory over Rice. 

REd Sox -109 4* MLB POD

Arizona State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This line is about right with Arizona State's QB Taylor Kelly missing the game and a lot of unknowns.  However, I feel confident in Arizona State at home despite their defense not being a top tier unit.  They lost 8 starters from a year ago, but these guys playing at home with a  chip on their shoulder knowing they are the supposed weakest unit will be interesting to see.  They actually get a good match up here in my opinion going against UCLA.  UCLA has not been good on offense despite having an NFL QB in Brett Hundley who is not 100% healthy thanks to the atrocious play of his offensive line and no real game changers on offense.  UCLA is 72nd in yards per play and 115th in sack % allowed. Arizona State always has an aggressive front with athletes and they may be inexperienced, but I'm betting on them coming up big tonight in this marquee match up.  They will see a balanced offense, but neither the passing or the running game of UCLA scares me right now.

Arizona State offense has been superb ranking 3rd in yards per play, but they have not played anyone.  They have had 12 days to prepare and with a new QB in Mike Bercovici and I think they will be able to move the ball.  UCLA has big names that are over hyped this unit is 111th in sack % and they can't pin their ears back against Arizona State's big OL because the running game is a real threat with DJ Foster who is averaging 9.44 yards per carry.  I don't see how UCLA will keep Arizona State from moving the ball and their play up front is simply not good enough to be a road favorite.  They can't get to the QB and they can't protect their QB and they're a road favorite?  I'll take the points enjoy!

Redskins -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

First of all the Giants have played sloppy all year long and if they can't run the ball there does not come to be successful.  Ironically the Washington Redskins have been excellent against the run andto excellent rankings in Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles yet their rank number one in run defense as far as ypc is considered.  After the Redskins are top 10 team for yards per play on offense and yards per play allowed on defense and their basically a pk vs.  the New York Giants. I don't think so I think this line is way off and I think the oddsmakers are setting it because the Giants didn't just beat the Houston Texans at home while the Washington Redskins lost the Houston Texans on the road.

However now that RG three is gone Kirk cousins is taken over this offense and he fits into the system much better. Cousins in the Redskins have averaged 38 points per game since he's taken over and the offense is really clicking. For the Giants have played sloppy all year long I don't really see that changing. Even in their win last week Eli Manning had turned the ball over and it wasn't a smooth gain. I don't see how the Giants will be able to move the ball consistently in this scheme which is what there and I have to do because the Redskins can score and move the ball. The Redskins not only are number one in the league against the run but they are number one in sack percentage and it's a major weakness of the Giants. Protecting the quarterback is crucial when Eli Manning is taking snaps and if they can't do that this scheme should be a blowout.

Royals -140 4* MLB POD[/b]

This is arguably Kansas City's biggest game of the year and their opportunity to get into the playoffs for the first time since 1985. They just got done taking two of three different from the Cleveland Indians but they left the door open and I think that door will be shut tonight with their ace on the mound. James Shields has been absolutely dominating and even better on the road and the Royals have been great on the road 44 – 33 compared to 42 – 39 at home.

Over the last two seasons Shields has gone 20 – five with a 2.48 ERA. He's also been strong down the stretch. He's got a 2.67 ERA in four starts against the White Sox and the type of pitcher that can handle these big moments.

Mariners +109 4* MLB POD

I am fading Mark Buehlre here today.  The Mariners have 3-8 over their last 11 games but they are still alive for the playoffs.  Mark Buehlre was 10-1 one with a 2.10 ERA on June 2. Since then he's gone to a nine within ERA almost at five and he's been pretty much like batting practice. She's constantly pitching with more than one runner on base and pitching out of GM's and it certainly caught up to them over the last month of the season.

Taijuan Walker Will take the mound for the Mariners in his arm is extremely fresh with not a lot of innings on it for the season. Meanwhile Toronto starter is approaching 200 innings for the 13 consecutive year. Walker has an outstanding 16% swing and miss rate. Walker is very young but he's a top 10 prospect and brings upper 90s heat with a powerful curve. I think he'll give you a quality outing tonight and the Mariners still have the best bullpen in baseball with the 2.60 ERA compared with Toronto who is ranked 26th. 

Royals +111 4* MLB POD

I'll go with the Kansas City Royals tonight as my and the LB play of the day. The Yordano Ventura has been as hot this season and he's been even hotter down the stretch he's been solid on the road as well with a 3.17 ERA through 12 starts.  What I like most about Ventura is the fact that he's got a 1.98 ERA in four career starts against the Indians who could not score a run last night.

The Indians got hot while the other changes in the playoff race got cold and they were suddenly 3 1/2 games out of wildcard spot with three games against the Royals ahead of them. However, they pretty much showed that opportunity away last night against the Royals as every one of their hitters was trying to be a hero swinging for the fences. I doubt they will be able to come up with much against an arm like Ventura.

The Indians starting pitcher is Danny Salazar and he has not been that great this season. When games of matter most down the stretch he's posted an ERA over five over his last three starts and he's got an ERA welder for in his career against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals actually are trailing the Detroit Tigers by just one game in the AL West and have plenty of opportunity to win the division which is highly coveted verse being a wildcard team. 

Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD

The stock couldn't be anymore on these New York Giants but it still Eli Manning versus Ryan Fitzpatrick.Houston is to it on the Giants are owing to but the Houston Texans had the ball last week for nearly 70% again but they were still outgained by the Oakland Raiders. I said the Oakland Raiders.Houston Texans were also looking by the Redskins on the season Ryan Fitzpatrick is only averaging 170 yards passing per game while the running game is carrying this team. It's a bad matchup for Houston because of the rushing game will have its hands full with the Giants who are holding opponents in check, ranked sixth in yards per carry run defense. Go to sleep.

The Giants defense has been good when you think about the position the offenses put them in. Eli Manning has not had a lot of help from the running game he has not had a lot of help from his receivers dropping passes. However in this game he will face Houston who is allowing 5.8 yards per carry which is worse in the league. Go to sleepHouston does have a difficult scheduling spot having to travel to Oakland then back to Houston and now to New York. I have a lot of respect for Tom Coughlin as a coach and Gill have this team ready. The teams played extremely sloppy to start the season and again everybody is against them and usually when everybody is against one team that's when they usually shine especially when you are backed by a solid head coach.

Iowa +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa +230 1* bonus
Iowa's 2-1 on the season but 0-3 against the spread there's got to be value in this line for sure especially since Pittsburgh beat Boston College on the road and Boston College just beat USC at home.  Also the Big Ten is getting no love from the oddsmakers after the first few weeks of the season and they probably shouldn't care either but this lines of three points in my favor in Pittsburgh is still among one of the youngest teams in the country.  They have 81 underclassmen 53 freshmen and 28 sophomores which is the highest in the country they've started 3-0 but that's about to change on Saturday.

I would just copied at home to Iowa State as a double-digit favorite and they really haven't looked at Creek this year but I'll still take my chances with a touchdown to play with it again it's going to be very competitive. Both teams will play conservative style type a game trying to control Time possession which means for a close game and my.

Pittsburgh runs a very one dimensional offense with 71% of their players being running place right fit in the country. Running back James Connor it looks to be the real deal again one of the nations leading rushers as a sophomore. However no balance no threat of the passing game and that's going to get you be at some point in the season. The matchup against Iowa defense is intriguing considering Iowa is only allowing 2.8 yards per carry Ray 21st in the country. Pittsburgh Pirates had the liberty of going against some bad Russian defenses to start the season.  Iowa's always known for their front seven top gritty players and they have for returning starters from last year on the front for including three seniors and one junior.

For Iowa's offense they are far more capable of what they've shown this year. Jake Rudock has played well 68% of his passes have been completed he's from four touchdowns and one interception. Pit secondary has not been tested to start the season and I think it will be on Saturday at least to the point where we will cover the spread.  It also features to senior running backs they can get the tough yards and I think they just overall have more balance on offense in Pittsburgh does and when you look at both teams I think both defenses are on the same level I will always go with the team with more balance.  Iowas defense has only allowed one red zone touchdown all you all year Pittsburgh has been good in the red zone but again who if they faced.

Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 ATS following a SU loss with Kirk Ferentz at the helm at head coach while Pitt is 1-5 ATS in their last 6. 

Twins -140 4* MLB POD
Phil Hughes has been under rated all year long yet he leads the majors in strikeout to walk ratio and has been great against the Indians posting a 1.67 ERA over 4 starts.  Indians send Bauer to the mound, but he's struggled on the road with an ERA over 5 and he also has an ERA over 5 against the Twins.  I'll take the Twins as the home team this late in the season.

Connecticut +3 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
South Florida is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games while Connecticut is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record which is good for a 29-7-2 ATS angle.  Both teams have played 3 straight games at home with their anemic offenses and have gone 1-2 only beating an FCS opponent.  However, Uconn has looked better against stronger competition.

Uconn faced Boise #38 power rating, BYU #24 good for 35th ranked SOS ranking while USF comes in at 82nd facing Maryland #74 and NC State #57.  Uconn will have the best unit on the field on Saturday and that will be their defense.  They just got done shutting down Boise and holding them to 292 yards.  South Florida has a miserable passing offense and Uconn has the ability to shut down a running game.  They held Boise over 150 yards under their season average.  Uconn also likes to pass the ball 60% of the time and that's where South Florida's weakness is ranked 82nd, in yards/attempt, 84th in QB rating, but they also have issues stopping the run ranked 81st.

From a yards perspective Uconn was worse than South Florida but those numbers are skewed a bit.  When we look at both offenses in their 2 games vs. FBS opponents Uconn was actually able to move the ball.  They had 23 first downs vs. BYU who is ranked 24th in defense for yards/play and had 355 yards.  Against Boise they had only 290 but had 18 first downs which was more than Boise State and Boise is ranked 54th on defense for yards/play.  South Florida on the other hand was miserable in their two games.  Against NC State ranked 65th in yds/play defense they had just 8 first downs and 159 yards.  Against Maryland ranked 53rd they had 257 yards and 16 first downs.  I'm going with the better defense and the offense that has shown more life and I'm getting points.  I don't care if this game is on the road Uconn is due for a win against South Florida and I think tonight is the night.

Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge.  I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned.  However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball.  However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense.  Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme.

Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field.  I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure.  Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses.  It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game.  This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion.  Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters.  I just don't see that happening here.  The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents.  For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years.  Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm.

One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense.  Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters.  This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation.  Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket.  Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building.  Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down.

Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD
I will go with the Eagles tonight, because I think they are the better team.  As long as the zebras do not impact this game for the home team I think the Eagles will win this game.  It is no secret that their is a lot of love out there for Andrew Luck and that he's an elite QB in this league.  However, he's backed by a defense that is just very bad especially with out Robert Mathis running around and he does not have a supporting running game.  Trent Richardson still has not proven that he can play at this level, but the Colts keep throwing him out there since they made a huge investment.  Eagles defense should get a few stops due to the fact that they'll know what's coming in this one dimensional offense.

For the Eagles their offense should be able to move the ball well and the public image is already distorted from their slow start against one of the worst teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars.  However, the Eagles outscored the Jaguars 34-0 down the stretch and they feature an elite offense with the best running back in the league along with weapons all over the field for Nick Foles.  If the Eagles don't win or cover this game it will be because of the referees.

Jays +110 4* MLB POD
I will go with the Jays on the road as they are just red hot right now trying to make a push towards the post season.  Their line up has already had success agaisnt Wei-Yin Chen - .956 OPS as he has a 2.00 WHIP against them lifetime.  The Jays are hitting .310 vs. LHP scoring 8.10 runs peer 9 over their last 10 while their bullpen has been solid as well.  We also get Marcus Stroman on extra rest here tonight and he's been the Jays best starter.  This is a particularly bad match up for the Orioles because Stroman does not give up HR's just 1 in his last 10 starts and the Orioles rely on the long ball to get victories as they lead the majors in home runs.

Cowboys +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
The public is so far off this team right now and it's giving us tremendous value.  Last Sunday the 49ers went into Dallas and went u 21-0 and most people changed the channel as it was the Cowboys defense looking awful again and Tony Romo making unecessary mistakes.  However, very quietly the Cowboys shut the 49ers offense out in the second half and for the game the Cowboys had more yards and first downs.  This defense is clearly improving and the team showed resilience in a tough spot against a top 3 team on opening week.  I think Romo is a great leader and I think he will play well this week now that he was able to shake some of the cobwebs loose.

For the Titans they went into a highly touted KC building and came out with a dominating win 26-10.  The stock could not be higher for the Titans after that victory.  The new coach, Jake Locker back and all of a sudden the Titans are headed to the playoffs... Not so fast.. I'm not high on that KC team I really think they have no offense and when you can not convert third downs you are going to have an advantage over your opponent's defense.  KC's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes.  I expect more from Dallas who has a balance attack, elite receiver, top 10 QB, and an under rated running back that when healthy is a top 5 or 10 tailback int his league.  Expect the Titans to come back down to earth this week as the Cowboys shock them in a possible outright victory.

Arkansas +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Arkansas versus Texas Tech Ohio anticipated game for my opinion because we get to see what the big 12 is all about going up against Annecy Seapoint. Arkansas has a bit of a chip on the shoulder they've lost headed straight to FBS opponents and again they're coming off essentially what is a bye. Dave smacked up nickel State 73 to 7 last week and I guarantee you the coaching staff was looking toward The game against Texas Tech.

The biggest reason why I like Arkansas is the fact that Texas Tech is not going to be able to stay on the field they're knocking to be able to stop in Arkansas's power running game which leads the nation with over 10 yards per carry.  Texas Tech just got done at Wiley Texas El Paso to rush for 277 yards while they held the ball for 39 minutes they also gave up 170 yards to central Arkansas this is a bit of a rebuilding year for Texas Tech and I just don't expect them to win this game at home.

Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams are becoming quite the duo while quarterback bring an Allen offers a nice balance. I think there blowout loss against Auburn was a bit deceiving watching that game I thought Arkansas move the ball well and bring it out has 178 QB rating on the year.  Arkansas's defense is a big? However they get some players back in the secondary for depth which is a big big deal this week against Texas Tech.  Texas Tech she really likes the sling the ball around however there are facing an aggressive defense that features some very good players in the front line including all SEC defense eventually flowers.  Prep Yuma hired some highly touted defensive coaches and I think this is a game where you're going to see a payoff. They play aggressively which should result in a forced turn over to tilt the game in the favor of Arkansas in the end.

Ravens -2.5 4.4* NFL POD
The media has blown the story up about Ray Rice and rightfully so, but that has chased a good portion of the public bettors over to the side of Pittsburgh and I"ll stay with the home team who has a lot to prove tonight and a win could certainly avoid some questinos about Ray Rice.  The Ravens have been preparing for life without Rice for some time and the Ravens have capable back ups.  The Ravens did not play bad last year and actually out played the Bengals in certain circumstances.  For instance they moved the ball well 26 first downs to the Bengals 16 and overall they played better in a tougher match up on the road against the Bengals.

Steelers blew a 27-3 halftime lead against the Browns and sneaked in a win with a field goal late.  The Steelers gave up 183 yards on the ground and nearly 400 overall.  They were outscored 24-3 in the second half which to me just screams that they are just not in shape yet.  With a short week this early in the season I think Pittsburgh is in big trouble.  I don't think it will help their cause as the Ravens will just have the upper hand at home on the short week early in the season.

LA Tech +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is one of the more important games for LA Tech early in the season and they have a lot of revenge going into this game after losing at home 28-13 last year.  Tech is a completely different team thus far they feature Iowa transfer QB Cody Sokol who does not make mistakes and Manny Diaz at defensive coordintor who has implemented his aggressive style of play and so far it's looking good.  This team held Oklahoma to less than 200 yards rushing and held them to 5-13 on third down which was quite the achievement and then last week on the road as a double digit dog against an in state rival with 8 returning starters including a dynamic senior QB they held to 7 points through 3 quarters before finishing the victory off at 48-20 covering the spread by 44 points.  In last year's game they went up 10-0 on the Mean Green, but it was turnovers that cost them the game as they were -2 in the game, but North Texas no longer has their senior QB and are completely one dimensional.

North Texas has thrown the ball with their starting QB only 23 times in two games and he has 0 TD and 2 interceptions.  The Mean Green do have a fantastic running tandem, but if LA Tech can hold up against the likes of Oklahoma on the road defending the run I'm thinking they can here.  I just think this LA Tech team is better than last year while North Texas blew out SMU last week it was largely due to the fact that they forced 5 turnovers.  Tech has been taking care of the ball so far this season and if they do that tonight it won't take much offense to outscore North Texas.

Red Sox -107 4* MLB POD
Baltimore is being carried by Nelson Cruz right now and that's never a good thing in baseball, because you can easily pitch around them.  The Red Sox look in good shape to pull the upset here on Monday night with Joe Kelly taking the mound (see last year's nubmers in September).  He's got a 2.55 ERA over his last 3 starts and the Orioles have never faced him before including Nelson Cruz.  Expect a quality pitching performance as he's also fresh and on extra rest.

For the Orioles they wills tart MIguel Gonzalez on 4 days rest who has a 3.79 ERA on the road.  Gonzalez has quality starts against the Red Sox but he's supported by a bullpen that will do his team in tonight as they are posting a 5.20 ERA over their last 10 games and worse over their last 5.

Giants +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Giants confidence level from the public probably has never been lower and as a serious bettor this is a good thing.  We can easily find value on this team and it starts tonight when they play in a Monday night media hyped game against the Detroit Lions who more and more people love this team and their offense due to their big time fantasy football players.  However, I'm looking at this game from a strict value perspective and the Giants have it as they have always been a very good road team under Tom Coughlin.  Coaching is a huge advantage here for the Giants who by far have the better staff when you look at the Lions their hiring of Jim Caldwell makes me a bit curious.

Caldwell is a good offensive coach or maybe he just got lucky along the way when he was the Colts assistant and their QB coach under Peyton Manning.  I say under Manning, because I do feel it's the other way around when you get lucky with a player like Manning and Caldwell has definitely cashed that ticket more than once now in his second stint as a head coach.  However, he lacks any sort of discipline which is what I think this Lions team is missing.  I really think as bad as the Giants looked in the pre-season they will look 10x better in week 1.  Giants never like to tip their hat too much in pre-season and I truly think Eli Manning is capable of picking up a new offense despite what it looked like in the pre-season.  I expect the Giants to control this game and I really like their chances of pulling off the upset against the over rated Lions.

[b]BLUE JAYS -123 4* MLB POD[/b]
Rubby De La Rosa has a 1.43 WHIP on the year and a 3.89 ERA, but it should be far worse, but he's been able to strand a lot of runners.  He comes into this game making his 4th start against the Blue Jays and he has not performed well with an ERA over 7.  The collective line up has a .370 average against him and a 1.00 OPS meanwhile R.A. Dickey makes the start for the Jays and has posted a 2.49 ERA vs. Boston over 4 starts.   It doesn't look like he has to face the Red Sox most dangerous hitter in David Ortiz who is doubtful.  Boston is also 26th OPS during day games while Toronto is 6th. I'll take the Jays to avoid the sweep as they still have a slim chance of getting back into the wild card race in the AL.

    Falcons +3 5.5* NFL POD;  The Saints are a very popular team, because of their fantasy value and they have played well in Atlanta, but I full expect Atlanta to rebound as they have done some nice things in the off season. The biggest addition they get to start 2014 is the return of a healthy WR duo in White and Jones. Matt Ryan still had a great year last year now he gets those two guys back and then he adds the best tackle from the NFL draft in Jake Matthews and arguably the best half back to back up Stephen Jackson in Devonta Freeman. Falcons have a lot to prove this year and I think it will start this Sunday by defending their home turf and defeating a quality team in the New Orleans Saints.

Vanderbilt +20 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
This game is one of my value plays of the week Ole Miss couldn't have looked better in their win against Boise State winning 35 to 13 while Vanderbilt could not avoid any worse playing Temple in their 37 to 7 loss. Cedarville committed seven turnovers and got smacked up and down the field against temple I just don't see them turning the ball over seven times and if they did not lose that came last week to spread would be completely different.  This is still a pretty big game for Vanderbilt as both of these teams recruit players in the state of Tennessee so expect me interval to really come out to try to win this actually they have covered 10 of their last 13 meetings against Ole Miss.

For Mississippi they have been getting a lot of media hype Bo Wallace in the offense as well as the defense but when you look at the game last week and I watch him throw three interceptions. Ole Miss actually only lead Boise State 7 to 6 at the end of the third-quarter it and at that time the game could've one anyway until Ole Miss exploded for 28 points in the fourth making the game look more like a blowout than it really was. 

I really like what Vanderbilt did when they lost James Franklin to Penn State they hired Derrick Mason the defense of Cordinator from Stanford this team did not play dad last week they health temple to two for 17 on third down Stanford had rain to 82nd in the Justin defense the three years prior to Mason riding and then on an average 9 to 3 years after.  Part of why I like this play is Bo Wallace on the road last year he could not play well at home he had 160 quarterback rating but on the road he had it only 112 quarterback rating throwing five touchdowns 27 interceptions.  The interval is still an SEC defense and they are loaded with three star recruits. I don't often's Vanderbilt should be able to move the ball and score just enough to cover this game comfortably considering they have for starters on the offense of line returning.  There are questions that quarterback but I still think that this game is going to be about running the ball and taking care of the ball specially after turning the ball over seven times last week this will ultimately shorten the game and allow Vanderbilt to cover this large spread.

Cardinals -111 4.5* MLB POD
The Brewers in a major skid right now and we get good odds because Wily Peralta has dominated the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have turned into their typical September selfs and have scored 7.25 runs per 9 over their last 5  compared to the Brewers who are at 2.20 and have been dominated during their 8 game ski 55-16.  Something seems wrong with Peralta, 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 2.07 WHIP.  Meanwhile their bullpen has not helped 6.08 ERA over their last 5 and a 5.40 in their last 10.  MIchael Wacha returns for the Cardinals and his arm should be fresh coming off the 60 day DL and I think the Cards win this one.

Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD
As much as I'd love to back San Antonio for another win here tonight their win on the road against an in state rival (Houston) 27-7 last week is enough to make me change my mind.  Not only is UTSA going to be a bit hung over, but they did not dominate Houston like the score states.  Their new QB only managed 263 yards last week and they converted just 29% of their third downs while a +4 turnover margin helped big time.  Arizona was a 25.5 point favorite at home last year and won 38-13 and I just don't see UTSA having that big of a home field advantage.  I also think the oddsmaker's have adjusted this line way too much based on one week and Arizona looked even better than Houston did if you ask me.

Arizona is breaking in a new QB and a new RB, but this offense should be even better with the talent they have at WR.  The fact that they have 4 starters and 104 starts combined along the starting offensive line is the key.  Rich Rodriguez can work with that and his offense broke the school record agaisnt UNLV last week.  I just don't see UTSA being able to stay with Arizona tonight even though I'd love to see it happen it won't.  UTSA's new QB is still unproven and I don't know a lot about him, but I wonder how many times he's seen a 3-3-5 defense with this kind of speed?

[b]Twins +118 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take value here with the Twins and I give them a good chance to avoid the sweep.  Phil Hughes has a 2.94 ERA on the road this year and a good mix of results vs. the Orioles over his career pitching 4 quality starts in his last 6 against them.  Kevin GAusman has a 4.40 ERA at home and a 5.13 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP during day starts.  IN fact Baltimore has not played well during day games going 19-25 ranked 29th in ERA and 17th in OPS.  The Twins oddly enough are ranked #1 in runs scored during day games 3rd in OPS and are 29-29 and just came off a game they scored 8 runs.  They are scoring well over 6 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and they face a pitcher who is average at best.

Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD
A lot of question marks in this game, but I still feel really good about the value I'm getting with Utah State due to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.  First of all Utah State easily has the edge at QB in Chuckie Keeton who returns from his injury last year.  Justin Worley just does not impress me 117 QB rating last year behind one of the best offensive lines.  In fact both QB's have to play behind inexperienced offensive lines that are completely rebuilt and who would you take as a more likely player to be able to play well?  Keeton is a mobile QB that can buy time for his receivers to get open.  Even though Tennessee has a very good secondary they can't cover guys forever and a very green defensive front for Tennessee is going to allow Utah State to score enough to be in good shape to win this game in my opinion.  Utah State should also be able to get a running game going with Keeton and company since Tennessee was 114th vs. the run last year in ypc allowed and they lost their top 5 tacklers. 

Utah State's defense was top 10 the last two years.  I think they will be very good again especially in the front 7 where they return 3 very good linebackers and 2 of their 4 on the front line.  This defense was #2 in run defense and they return 5 of 7 in the front 7.  The depth is an issue, but it was last year as well and they played well.  The defense really has issues in the secondary, but I don't think Tennessee has the QB to take advantage of those issues.  TN wideouts are extremely talented but Worley could not get the job done behind an offensive line that had 184 career starts a year ago and I don't see it possible for him to play well behind an offensive line that will have 6 career starts going into game #1.

Yankees -120 4* MLB POD
Yankees are playing well right now and I think we get them at a cheap price when they have an advantage in the starting rotation with Michael Pineda who is obviously fresher than most of the starting pitchers at this point in the season.  The 1.95 ERA on the season and again with the time off his arm strength is stronger than most.  Yankees also are a very good day team going 28-17 on the season while the Blue Jays are just not playing well this month going just 7-17.  Jays are also 4-14 in their last 18 vs. a RH starter.

Yankees have success against Drew Hutchinson who is 2-6 with a 6.33 ERA in 9 day starts and has a 7.08 ERA in 4 starts against the Yankees this season. 

Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD
I had Virginia in the first game of the year as a home dog last year playing a team traveling from the West Coast and it was in fact Virginia's most impressive win.  Virginia hosts UCLA who comes all the way from LA to play a game at noon.  It's an interesting match up with the hype of UCLA with many saying they have a shot at being 1 of the 4 teams in the playoff at the end of the year.  Brett Hundley is also getting hype as a Heisman candidate but I'm not buying into this.

Hundley is known for making mistakes especially on the road.  He takes way too many sacks and this Virginia defense returns 10 guys on a very aggressive unit that can force you into mistakes.  All of their linebackers return including their bakc ups and the defense is as talented as any with more blue chip recruits and their secondary is just loaded with depth and 4* recruits.  Hundley was sacked 35 times last year and the fact that he has to replace 3 offensive line starter and he also lost his top target in Shaq Evans is going to create a drop down in the early going.

I have not forgotten about UCLA's defense it is very strong and has a lot of talent in the front, but on the road they were not dominant in stopping the run and Virginia does have 4 and 5 * recruits at RB behind an experienced and big offensive line.  UCLA's defense did lose their best pass rushers in Anthony Barr and Cassius Mash along with Kenan Graham.  The depth of the front 7 is a concern and if Virginia can stick to the run they should have a chance at winning this game by forcing turnovers and smart clock management.
    

UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This was a blow out last year as Texas San Antonio lost to Houston 28-59, but when you look at HOuston's season it is hard to see them doing what they did being +25 in TO margin.  A lot of luck factored in when you see that they recovered 63% of their fumbles and picked of 50% of their pass break ups (25% average), and only threw 10 intereceptions on 76 pass break ups again is very lucky.  Yeah they beat up on UTSA, but when you look at the stat line both teams had 27 first downs, and UTSA actually had 493 yards to Houston's 491.  It was the 4 turnovers that killed them and returning 38 senior this year has got to be worth something.

I'm not surprised that UTSA closed the season with 5 wins last year.  They are in a sweet spot in San Antonio for recuriting and I think the best is yet to come.  They only lost 2 players on offense and they return their entire offensive line and their back ups which I may remind you all 5 starters are seniors and they were ranked 43rd in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate.  Expect this team to be able to score some points and keep this within the total.

Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL.  However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes.  South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year.

First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm.  He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB.  The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft.  This unit has the potential to be better.  As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw.  The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB.  I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down.

This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining.  A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013.  I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season.  Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before.  With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory.

So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams.  South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation.  That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential.  A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks.  I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage

Braves -150 4.5* MLB POD
The Mets come back from a West Coast trip and it's hard to see them getting up for this game without their two leaders in the line up in Daniel Murphy and David Wright.  The Mets on the season are 28th in OPS vs. LHP and that is with David Wright who has a .384 average and a .967 OPS vs. LHP this year.  Without Wright the Mets would likely be last in the league and now they are also without their best hitter in Daniel Murphy who owned tonight's starter Alex Wood going 5-11.  This should make it an easier night for Wood who goes up agaisnt a Mets club that is hitting .158 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.

The Braves have really turned it around and trail the Giants by 1 game.  Their bullpen has really tightened up as well as their entire pitching staff posting a 2.18 ERA combined over their last 10 games.  Dillon Gee gets the nod for the Mets, but he's had just 1 quality start over the last 7 starts. The Braves are 37-13 in their last 50 following an off day and I see no reason why they would not win this game tonight.
    

[b]Royals -135 4* mlb pod[/b]
James Shields has owned the Yankees since becoming a member of the Royals in 3 starts he posts a 1.29 ERA.  Over the last 3 years he's dominated the month of August with a 2.67 ERA and that holds true this year where he has a 2.17 ERA thus far.  He comes into this start facing the Yankees who have scored just 2.94 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games on extra rest.  In 4 home starts on extra rest this season he has a 1.24 ERA.  The Royals are 35-16 in his last 51 starts.

Michael Pineda starts for the Yankees in his 3rd GS since coming off the DL.  This start is on 4 days rest and he's already not being pushed so I believe the Yankees bullpen is going to be asked to do too much in this one.  The bullpen has already been struggling posting an ERA over 6 over the last 10 games. 

[b]Brewers -132 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take the Brewers especially following a loss to the Pirates on their home turf.  Not much statistically differs between these two teams as far as offense, and bullpen, but Milwaukee is home in this one and it's been a huge advantage for them over the Pirates going 51--13 in their last 64 meetings here.  Not to mention I believe they have the advantage on the mound tonight in Wily Peralta who has posted a 1.59 ERA over the last 6 weeks.  Peralta has a quality start in all 3 of his major league starts vs. the Pirates as well giving up just 5 ER in 20 innings of work.  Volquez has always been the type to struggle late in the season (8.24 ERA the last 3 years in August) and on the road.  Previous to this year he really struggled against the Brewers 4.62 ERA in his previous 6 starts but this year he has 3 quality starts against them, but I think that ends here tonight as the Brewers get to him early and build a lead.

[b]Texans +7 3.3* play[/b]
I took the Texans a few weeks ago and they were shut out now they play the Broncos.  The Broncos just shut out a very good defense/offense in the 49ers 34-0 last week and almost everyone played well.  I think they lay a bit of an egg here and John Fox is known for not having a good week 3.  I don't see Peyton Manning playing as long as your traditional first string plays in week 3 of the pre season since he's been so good there really is no reason to risk any type of injury.

Jays -115 4.5* MLB POD

[b]Cardinals -114 5* MLB POD[/b]
I am going to fade the Reds here with Jonhny Cueto on the mount.  He's just 2-7 in his last 9 starts vs. a winning team and this is the time of the year the Cardinals start to concentrate and get on a run and it's exactly what they have done winning 6 of 7 including the first two games of this series.  Their offense has picked it up scoring 4 or more runs in their last 7 games which will be plenty in this match up tonight.

Lance Lynn has dominated this season at home and during night starts posting ERA's under 2.5 in both scenarios he finds himself in tonight.  He'll face a REds line up that has struggled all season vs. RHP and of course in St. Louis.  The Reds are just 18-41 in their last 59 visits here and even though they have their ace on the mound tonight he has to be due to struggle.  This is Cueto's 5th start in a row on 4 days rest and 4th in 5 starts on the road so he's done a ton of traveling and not a lot of rest in between.  Cueto has been beat up by Matt Holliday and Jon Jay specifically but overall the Cardinals have a .905 OPS vs. Cueto in 124 AB with a .315 average.  The Cardinals offense has really picked it up of late and I think when you take a look at the bullpen advantage they have right now it's a nice price to get them at home at.

[b]Pirates -112 4* MLB POD[/b]
I feel like these odds are decent for a match up between two teams who are pretty similar.  The Braves really struggle at home but are able to dominate at home and that's exactly what the Pirates are, and of course Pittsburgh is the home team tonight.  Ervin Santana has been struggling over his recent starts 3.88 ERA overall on the road as well and he faces the Pirates who are ranked 5th in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 1.5 runs per 9 innings more than the Braves.  The Pirates bullpen ERA is also a run better when you take a look at the bullpen splits for home and away, but the biggest thing is the Pirates success at home vs. a RH starter as they are 21-7 in their last 28.  Vance Worley has filled in pretty nicely for the Pirates sporting a 2.00 ERA at home over 5 starts at PNC and he will have a nice match up against the Braves who rank 26th vs. RHP in OPS.

[b]RED SOx -158 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take my chances with the Red Sox at home vs. a bad road team in the Astros.  The Astros also don't hit RHP well this year compared with LHP.  Allen Webster's numbers look worse than they really are but I'm encouraged by his last start vs. the Angels which sports a much better lineup than the Astros.  Webster who has an extra day of rest for tonight's start at home went 6.2 IP allowing 2 ER in LA in his last start.  The pitching is the main concern for the Astros as their bullpen has just been bad all season.

Houston has a 5.03 ERA which is worst in the bigs they are even worse on the road with a 5.65 ERA and there have been no signs for improvement.  The Red Sox bullpen has been decent ranking 12th with an ERA in the 3's but performing better of late helping them win some games lately (3 in a row).  However, the biggest reason I am making this a POD selection at this price is Scott Feldman.  Feldman has pitched great of late, but he faces a Red Sox line up that added Yoenis Cespedes who is 3-8 off of him while Feldman has already struggled vs. the Sox.  4 of his 6 career starts were disaster starts and he's allowed an OPS over 1.000 to 7 of 9 hitters in today's lineup which is 38-93 against him.  I don't see Feldman going deep in this game and with the bullpen that supports him this game could be an easy win for the Sox.

[b]Mariners -165 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I really like the Mariners as the season has progressed and I predict we will see this team in the playoffs.  Their bullpen is just simply the best in the bigs right now and that's the major advantage they have in this match up tonight.  On the season they have a 2 run advantage, but Toronto's bullpen is getting a bit gassed especially after the 19 inning game on Sunday and then traveling to Seattle was not an easy situation.  I look for the Mariners to complete the sweep mainly because of their pitching and they are the hotter team right now scoring 6 runs per 9 over their last 10 with a 2.00 ERA compared with the Jays who are scoring 2.66 with a 4.55 ERA.

Iwakuma has been flat out nasty 2.88 ERA at home with a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.66 ERA over his last 3.  He's owned the Jays as well in 3 career starts allowing 4 ER in 22.2 IP which is good for a 1.61 ERA.  I don't see the Mariners slowing up they are good for a playoff run with this pitching staff that continues to fly under the radar.  I think we are paying a steep price, but my other two leans don't look as promising.

[b]PADRES -160 5* MLB POD[/b]
I will risk a max bet here on the Padres as this is just a flat out mismatch in every sense of the word however, we are getting a good price, because almost nobody respects the Padres boring playing style.  The Padres bullpen is over 2.5 runs better than the Rockies overall and over 6 runs better in the last 10 6.42 vs. 0.27.  They hold the edge on the starting pitching match up as well as Jesse Hahn has been great 1.07 WHIP 2.41 ERA over his last 3 vs. Jordan Lyles 1.60 WHIP 4.80 ERA.  Lyles also has a 6.93 ERA over his career vs. the Padres and a 9.72 ERA in 2 starts this year.

Colorado is 16-46 in their last 62 road games vs. a RH starter and they don't even hold the edge in offense when we take a look at home/away splits and San Diego is a very pitcher friendly ball park so I'm sure their offensive numbers are even lower when they are used to playing at pitcher friendly parks on the road, but tonight that won't be the case.  The Padres are 31-27 at home this season playing well right now and I see no reason for that not to continue as the Rockies who still remain banged up by injuries will continue to struggle.