4.4* NBA POD

Orioles +119 2* PLAY
This is for the first game in the match up of Colby Lewis vs. Wei-Yen Chen.

Red Sox -145 (4.5* MLB POD)
The Red Sox are 52-17 in their last 69 with Lester on the mound on 4 days rest.

Braves +103 5* POD
Ryan Dempster has been red hot to start the year over 4 starts he carries a 0.95 ERA, but he has faced some of the worst OPS teams when it comes to their rankings vs. RHP. They are ranked 18, 19, 23, 22nd while the Braves are 9th in OPS vs. RHP and they are 6th in OPS on the road. Braves are scoring 5.88 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games while the Cubs are at just 3.89. Dempster has been using three pitches and the Braves are ranked in the top 10 in all three including being ranked 6th vs. fast ball and #1 overall over the last 7 days against the fastball. Braves have plenty of experience vs. Dempster and should be able to get on base.

ON the flip side Delgado has been unlucky to start with a .321 BABIP and carries a 3.72 xFIP. He primarily uses his fastball 70% of the time where the Cubbies are ranked 24th. Cubs are also ranked 21st in OPS vs. RHP. No Cub has an AB vs. Delgado something that should work to his advantage early. I expect the Braves to bounce back from their loss yesterday and for hte Cubs to lose again.

4.5* NBA POD

5.5* MAX POD

Cardinals -112 (4.5* MLB POD)
Our big play of the day is on the Cardinals. I believe Lance Lynn is in line for another quality start as the Dbacks bats have been struggly just .212 with 2.61 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are back home but Lynn has been great on the road this year and I just have more confidence in the Cardinals producing runs. Cardinals are ranked #2 in OPS vs. LHP and Saunders off to a fast, but lucky start with his .245 BABIP and ERA under 2 has only faced bottom tier offenses ranked 28,26,23, 29 and the Braves ranked 6th in OPS vs. LHP but were 29th a year ago. Saunders has to go up agaisnt the best LHP hitting team in the National League and the Cardinals are also 5th in BABIP on the road so I don't see Saunders getting lucky this time especially since he's been working with 3 pitches and 88% of his pitches have been fastball or change up. It's been working for him, but that's not hard to figure out in the majors and the Cardinals are 3rd in the league vs. fastball, 2nd vs. the change up and 3rd vs. the curve ball.

Cardinals are also 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a LH starter and Beltran is 4-7 with a HR vs. Saunders who had a 4.42 ERA at home last year. Cardinals continue to hit with or without players and Berkman expected back this weekend shouldn't hurt them at all in this game. Their bullpen is over a run better on the road than the Dbacks is at home so I see that in their favor as well. Arizona is now just 5-11 in their last 16 as a dog and really should have been swept over the weekend by the Mets.

Mariners -126 (4.5* MLB POD) Twins bats vs. RHP have been worse than the Mariners and though they have an experienced pitcher in Blackburn on the mound vs. inexperienced Hector Noesi I still like Seattle here for many reasons. First of all Blackburn is a home pitcher. He's been so bad on the road the last two season 5.60 ERA last year and 7.57 the year before. The Twins are just 16-35 in his last 51 road starts and 6-22 when he is on 5 days rest. The Twins are hitting just .186 vs. RHP on the road and are last in OPS overall vs. RHP with a .628 OPS. Meanwhile Seattle is not much better but they are scoring more than a run better per 9 and their bullpen has a solid advantage as well. Twins over the last 5 games have been even worse vs. RHP hitting .062. I don't even know how that's possible. But their bullpen has played poorly 5.28 ERA over the last 5 as well. Seattle has 105 AB a .352 average and a .907 OPS vs. Blackburn and I see them knocking him out around the 5th inning. Hector Noesi, I see going further especially since the Twins have never seen him pitch. He has a high ERA but he's faced 4 top 15 RHP hitting teams including #1, and #7. His game against Oakland 29th vs. RHP was a gem at home 8 IP 0 ER. He's got the ability and I see him putting up a QS for a win here today at home.

Rangers -142 5.5* MLB POD
Rangers have lost three in a row and yet they are still 41-17 in their last 58 following a loss. I see them avoiding losing 4 in a row tonight in what looks like a mismatch on the mound and in the bullpen. For starters Derek Holland dominated the Indians last year in 2 of his 3 starts posting a 16 IP 1 ER over those two starts (1 home, 1 road). Secondly, though the Indians have heated up with their bats they still continue to struggle at home despite 6 runs last night. Most of their success has been on the road as they are hitting just .190 vs. LHP at home this year. They should struggle tonight as they have a .203 average and a .589 OPS vs. Holland over a combined 64 AB.

Texas on the other hand has a .285 average on the road vs. RHP and they got to Derek Lowe on the road in Atlanta last year. Indians have struggled out of the bullpen 5.13 ERA at home to the Rangers road 2.30 bullpen so the advantage is there too. Lowe tossed 5 innings gave up 7 hits and 3 ER vs. Texas last year and the Rangers have 73 combined at bats with a .301 average against him in their careers. Lowe's numbers are good thus far witha 2.27 overall ERA but a 4.60 xFIP should scare many as he is only striking out 2.56 K/9. Indians are just 5-21 in their last 26 meeting with Texas and 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a LH starter. I think the better Derek in this one is from Texas or should I say Holland?

Marlins -122 (4.5* MLB POD)
Josh Johnson easily has been the worst luck pitcher as he posts a 2.16 FIP as opponents have a .436 BABIP. That's about the change playing at San Diego where the Marlins will try to win 4 in a row. Padres just .100 average and a .367 OPS in 50 AB VS. Johnson have been struggling big time as they post a .167 average vs. RHP over their last 5 games. I think the Marlins win this game and JOhnson gets on track against the Padres who are 27th in the league with a .648 OPS vs. RHP.

Bulls +1 (4.4* NBA POD)
With or without Derek Rose the Bulls are still an outstanding road team and I think that shows up tonight. They are also used to playing without Rose and won some big games without him along the season. This is the biggest game of their season because it's the next game. I see a collective effort against a 76ers team that really peaked early in the season and are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bulls are 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 following a SU loss and 20-9 in their last 29 as a road under dog.

Indians +108 4* POD;
Love the Indians in this spot as once again they face a pitcher whose second best pitch is the Cutter and they are having great success against it. Speaking of great success the Indians have beaten up on Danks who is 0-4 in his last 6 home starts vs. the Indians posting a 6.25 ERA. Over his last 3 he's gone 15 IP and given up 16 runs. Masterson on the other hand is 3-5 despite a 2.37 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the White Sox. Masterson had a 1.61 ERA vs. the White Sox last year and a 3.15 ERA overall on the road. Walks have been his main issue this year but he faces a team that is 17th in walks. Walks have also been a challenge for Danks and I just like the Indians approach better as they are #1 in BB's while Danks is giving up 4.45 BB/9. Indians have a .739 OPS off Danks in 162 AB.

under 4.4* POD

Indians +116 (4* MLB POD)
Indians lost yesterday, but they

Nuggets +6 4.4* NBA POD
Nuggets were great on the road this season going 36-15 ATS in their last 51 overall and as dogs they were solid too going 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as an underdog. I believe they just had an off night shooting the ball as they shot 35% from the field. They average 47% on the road on the season. Lakers are not that great on 1 days of rest this season going 14-24 ATS overall so I do expect them to struggle here defensively more than they did in game 1. Afterall they shot the ball great (50%) and Denver shot terribly 35%. I think the two even out a little bit as Denver shot 44.6, 44, 46.5 and 42.5% vs. the Lakers this season. Expect the Lakers to give up about 44% and I don't see them shooting better than they did in game #1.

[b]Brewers -106 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I like the Brewers in this start particularly because of the success they have had vs. Edinson Volquez. Over 8 career starts he's 3-2 with a 5.94 ERA vs. the Brewers. Ryan Braun who nearly had 4 HR in last night's game which is quite the accomplishment considering the make up of Petco Park is 7-19 with a HR off Volquez. The Brewers are a combined .323 in 96 AB with a 1.010 OPS vs. Volquez. Milwaukee is also 16th with a .725 OPS vs. RHP this season while San Diego is 24th with a .655 OPS. San Diego over their last 5 are hitting just .183 and scoring just 1.86 runs per 9 vs. RHP this season and their bullpen has been an issue of late with a 6.23 ERA over their last 5. What's usually a strength has not been as they are 22nd in bullpen ERA on the year.

Brewers on the other hand have started to hit and should have every opportunity again vs. Volquez. With Marcum who had a 2.21 ERA on the road last year and is off to a solid start I"m convinced the Brewers will put themselves in great position for a W. The Padres have just a .651 OPS vs. Marcum in 56 AB. Padres are also 14-38 in their last 52 as a home dog while the Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 as a road favorite. With the small line I'm convinced we have great value here as I see the Brewers cruising.

4.4* nba pod

[b]Cardinals -108 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Cardinals dominated this series and I see nothing else but the same on Sunday. The Brewers are one of the worst day teams thus far this year as they are 2-8 with a 5.59 ERA and they are 23rd in OPS during day games with a .647 while the Cardinals are 7-4 with a 3.79 ERA and are 5th with a .786 OPS. They face Greinke who has been solid against them, but still Cardinals 97 AB, 299 and .774 OPS off Greinke is much better than the what the Brewers have done against Garcia who has a 0.80 ERA at home over his last 5 home starts vs. the Brewers. Brewers are just hitting .248 in 121 AB and a .677 OPS. Cardinals are now 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. RH starter as this season they are scoring 7.21 runs per 9 vs. RHP with a .291 average.

Rangers -157 5* MLB POD
Love the Rangers at home in this spot following a loss. I spoke yesterday on how much better this teams bullpen is than the Rays and they let me down yesterday but again today I think we have a significant advantage on the mound with Colby Lewis who has an ERA just over 2 on the season and has been consistent in each start. Lewis in his last 3 starts vs. the Rays has gone 19 innings giving up just 7 hits. TB has 48 AB with a .146 average and .414 OPS vs. Lewis. On the flip side Jeff Nieman has terrible number posting an ERA over 10 the last 3 years vs. the Rangers as they have 70 AB a .357 average and 1.101 OPS against them.

Orioles -119 (4.5* MLB POD)
Orioles are off to a great start again and I'm loving them in this match up with Arieta making the start. Arieta has a 2.63 ERA in 2 home starts and now he goes up against the Oakland A's who are last in the league in runs scored and 30th with a .582 OPS vs. RHP. Baltimore also has a solid bullpen behind him with a 1.96 ERA on the year better than the A's 2.35. Arieta has improved his walk numbers and his HR/9 although it's early I think both of those will continue here today against the A's who have just 17 AB against Arieta.

Brandon McCarthy already making his 6th start has a 4.00 ERA, but much like previous years most of that success is in Oakland where the ballpark is just different. He posted a 4.73 ERA over the last 3 years on the road compared to his under 3 ERA at home. He's got 3 starts vs. Baltimore over the last 3 years for a 5.82 ERA. 17 IP and 30 BR and 4HR are not good stats and he was worse in his lone start at Camden Yards posting a 7.20 ERA. Baltimore has 59 AB a .322 average and .879 OPS vs. McCarthy. O's are 10th in OPS at home posting a .768 and they go up against an A's team hitting just .212 on the road vs. RHP.

[b]RED SOX +118 5* MLB POD[/b]
Humber is coming off a perfect game and to me that usually means a hang over. There are 3 active pitchers that have thrown a perfect game Dallas Braden, Roy Halladay, and Mark Buehlre each were not nearly as effective in their next start. Buehlre gave up 5 ER in 6IP, Halladay 10 hits in 7 innings against the Padres and Braden gave up 4ER.

Humber has something else going on as well as his wife is expecting he actually had to leave Oakland because of this and he's still expected to pitch on Thursday night, but we will be on the hot hitting Red Sox either way and I tell you why. First of all they are red hot hitting .337 and scoring 6.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games while the White Sox will face a lefty and are 25th in OPS vs. lhp on the year and are hitting .154 over the last 5 games. Humber does not have a good history vs. the Red Sox and the White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 home games with him on mound. he has a 5.84 ERA vs. the Sox. What is different for Humber? He threw his slider (a pitch he's developed) almost as much as his fast ball this year. That will work against the Mariners who are ranked bottom of the league vs. the Pitch but the Red Sox are #1 in hitting vs. that pitch and were #4 a year ago. Boston is also #2 in OPS this year vs. RHP with a .836, Humber faced the mariners in a friendly park as the Mariners are ranked 27th in OPS vs. RHP.

on the other side the Red Sox will start Felix Doubrant who has actually been pretty good posting a 2.92 xFIP as he's got 11.25 K/9 and he's faced tough competition facing the Yankees, Rays, Toronto ranked 2, 7, and 12th in OPS vs. LHP. Today he gets to face the White Sox who are ranked 25th posting a .188 average vs. LHP this year.

eds -128 4.5* MLB POD It took a blown call at home plate, a blown save and an error for us to lose our POD yesterday with the Cardinals, but we return today with the Reds and I'm confident we are on the right side. Arroyo is off to a fast start with a 2.91 ERA and over his last 6 starts vs. the Giants he posts a 1.81 ERA. The Reds go up against Barry Zito who they have plenty of success against. in fact they have 111 AB .333 average and a 1.002 OPS vs. Zito who has not pitched well on the road overall nonetheless he's 0-2 in his last 5 with a 7.20 ERA in Cinci. Zito too is off to a great start but he has faced some bad hitting teams and though the Reds are 15th in OPS vs. lhp thus far they were 4th in the league last year with a .794. Reds are hot with the bats right now scoring 25 runs over their last 3 games and. At home this year they are hitting .358 vs. LHP and the Giants have a 5.34 ERA out of their bullpen on the road while the Reds bullpen has been decent. Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 as a home favorite and Bruce/Phillips/Subbs have been dominant vs. Zito who is out performing his abilities as his xFIP 4.60 confirms his 1.71 era is only early luck.

Cardinals -131 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Cardinals here today despite Wainwright's early struggles and getting hit hard by this very Cubs team a week ago I"m backing him this time in my play of the day and I'll tell you why. Wainwright looked solid all spring so there is no reason to think he's not 100%. Also his xFIP is actually 3.13 as he has 9.22 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He's been pretty unlucky with a .325 BABIP and 46.7% LOB. Wainwright has dominated the Cubs in the past 2.65 ERA over his last 8 and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley over the last 3 seasons. The cubs are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and 24th in home OPS. While the Cardinals are still dangerous offensively with or without Berkman ranking 5th in OPS vs. RHP and 4th with a .786 OPS on the road. Theya re 36-15 in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a starter wtih a WHIP > 1.30. Jeff Samardzija has been a reliever in past seasons and in his career he has 18 IP with a 7.50 ERA vs. the Cardinals who he owns a 2.44 WHIP against. Cardinals hitters have 65AB a .369 average .461 OBP and a .876 OPS. Cubs are also 7-19 in their last 26 as an under dog.

White Sox -108 (4.5* MLB POD)
Love the White Sox once again today as I think they have a significant pitching advantage. I see a lot of value for them on the road where they have played well this year. Colon who will start for Oakland has had a great start to the season posting a 2.63 ERA over 4 starts, but now he faces a team ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP in the White Sox with a .752. Colon had 3 starts vs. the Mariners who are 27th with a .613 and a start against the Angels who are off to a slow start ranked 18th. Colon has been helped by a .229 BABIP and his 2.63 ERA is not as good as advertised as he's got a 3.42 xFIP still very good, but he did post an ERA over 5 in Spring Training and now he'll play a team that has been hitting in the White Sox who are .278 vs. RHP on the road 5.34 runs per 9 and over their last 5 they post even better numbers of .290 and 6.37 runs per 9.

Jake Peavy will make a start on the road where he actually was very good last year posting a 3.35 ERA in 8 starts. Peavy has been impressive thus far posting a 2.75 ERA in 3 starts vs. some good hitting teams in the Rangers, Orioles, and Tigers. He's got a 21:2 K/B ratio which is very impressive bringing his FIP below 2. Oakland now is 26th in OPS vs. RHP and I don't see them being able to get to Peavy who they haven't really faced with only a combined 19 AB on the roster and a .211 average. Oakland just .222 at home vs. RHP and 3.32 runs per 9. White Sox also have the better bullpen posting a 1.45 ERA on the road and a 0 ERA over their last 5 while Oakland has a 3.23 ERA at home. White Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 road games as a favorite.

4.4* NBA POD

Reds -146 (4.5* MLB POD)
Cueto has been dynamite during day starts as he posted a 2.01 ERA last year and over his last 25 day starts he posts a 2.73 ERA. He's already off to a great start and the Reds offense is showing signs of getting out of their slump as they posted 6 and 9 runs in back to back games before 1 yesterday in a loss. I see them bouncing back as they go up against Randy Wells who got recalled from AAA Iowa for Dempster.

Wells had some rough outings in 3 starts in AAA and is giving up nearly 2HR/9. That's really been his problem the last few years and the Reds have guys in the line up with plenty of homers as they post 140AB .293 and .884 OPS. The starting line up has 92AB and a .326 average and 5 of the 7 hitters that have faced him have over a .400 OBP that means people will be on base all day today. Speaking of the day the Reds are 16th in OPS during day game .720 compared to the Cubs .630. Last year the Reds were one of the best day teams on offense posting a .768 OPS and the Cubs were 20th .696. Wells had a 5.22 ERA during 13 day starts last year and posted an 8.74 ERA in two starts vs. the Reds. I see the long ball having an impact in this game and I think Cueto will be great against a Cubs line up that's 25th in OPS vs. RHP this year.

Tigers -150 5.5* MLB POD It's very difficult to beat a team twice in a double header and considering the Tigers are already down 8-0 in the first I"m going to say it's a loss. Verlander knows he has to step up big time because the Tigers really do not want to be swept. Also he has to step up considering the bullpen is going to be hanging for game #2. I just think the Rangers will have a let down in game #2 especially the way they've been hitting. Facing Verlander in game 2 of a double header is no easy task after you played a 3 hour game. Verlander has a 2.50 ERA over the last 3 years while compiling a 32-8 record at home. Tigers are 41-12 in his last 53 home starts and over his last 4 he has a 2.33 ERA vs. the Rangers. Rangers have 147 AB with a .211 avg and .579 OPS. Feliz goes for the Rangers and posts a 4.70 ERA in relief during 8 games last year as the Tigers have a .303 and .899 OPS in a very limited 33 at bats. Still the Tigers vs. RHP at home are scoring 7.72 runs per 9. Verlander will only need a couple.

BlueJays -122 (4.5* MLB POD)
Going with the Jays today as I think it's a pretty even matchup offensively with both teams having similar OPS vs. RHP last year and to this point this year. The biggest difference is Toronto is just a different animal at home thus far vs. RHP they are hitting .260 with a 5.82 runs per 9 at home so far while TB is .216 4.10 on the road. What I'm more confident in is the Blue Jays bullpen and starting pitcher for Tampa's.

First of all Hellickson looked terrible in his road match up with Boston posting a 9.00 ERA giving up 3 HR. He's visited Toronto twice and in neither game did he go deep into the game meaning the Rays bullpen will have to be relied upon once again and they are a major league worst with a 9.31 ERA compared to the Jays 4.38 bullpen ERA. Alvarez on the other hand has been a lot sharper this year in his home starts he has a WHIP under 1.00 in 2 starts vs. capable offenses of the Orioles and the Red Sox, a team that beat up on Hellickson. Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 as a road dog +110 to +150.

Nuggets -140 5* NBA POD
The Nuggets still hungry in the playoff hunt have a huge game tonight against the Clippers who just clinched their playoff berth first time in a while and I bet their was plenty of celebrating after beating the Thunder at home one of the best in the West. So to me this is a double let down spot. LA is celebrating beating a very good team, and making the playoffs. They also have to get on a plane right after the game and head to Phoenix to play on Thursday.. Doesn't help they are playing this game at altitude. I expect them to slow it down and sub a lot more than usual.

Marlins -130 4.5* MLB POD
We get great odds here considering the Cubs being the road team. That's because Matt Garza has been great this year with a 1.23 ERA, but the Marlins hitters have plenty to be confident about. For on they have 67 AB, .328 average and a .974 OPS in their combined careers vs. Garza. Garza did dominate them last year but that was at home. This is Garza's first road start this year and first start at night. Two scenarios he did not like a year ago as he posted gray home & day ERA's of 2.46 and 2.69, but he had a 4.56 ERA on the road and a 3.92 ERA at night. He is coming off a start where he threw 119 pitches which is an awful lot this early in the season and he's playing a Marlins offense that just started to heat up scoring 19 runs in their last 4 games compared to 27 over their first 8.

Mark Buehlre also makes the start for the Marlins and he's been pretty good thus far and now he gets to pitch in the friendly new park for the first time. Buehlre has faced the Cubbies many times with the White Sox and posts a nice ERA against them as the Cubs hitters have 182 AB but just a .225 average and .562 OPS. Cubs are 3-11 in their last 14 as a dog and the Marlins have a considerably better bullpen with a 3.54 ERA overall compared to the Cubs 4.50, but they are at home where they post a 2.84 compared to the Cubs 5.25 on the road.

Brewers -125 (2* bonus play early)
The magic carpet ride is over for the Dodgers although I do think they are serious contenders in the NL West. At 9-1 they have been the best team but now they go on the road for a change. Dodgers just are not hte same team way and neither is their starter Chad Billingsley who has a 0.63 ERA in two starts. I remind you those two starts came against the Pirates and at San Diego. Now he heads to Miller Field where he posts a 4.50 ERA in his last 2 starts. He had a 5.34 ERA away from home last year combined. Brewers were #6 in OPS vs. RHP last year while the Dodgers were 22nd. Brewers were also 5th in the league with an .805 OPS at home and Galardo had a 3.00 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA during night starts last year. Brewers are 50-17 in their last 67 as a home favorite and 41-20 in their last 61 vs. RH starter.

Giants -128 (4.5* MLB POD)
Bumgarner had two challenging road starts at Colorado and Arizona and he survived. He posted a 3.12 ERA at home last year and has some pretty good numbers against the PHillies as he posted 2 ER 9K in 8 IP allowing just 6 hits in a home start last year. The Phillies just can't score and despite their 4 first inning runs last night against Lincecum who hasn't been Lincecum their offense was ice cold. Same was true at home against the Mets and now the Phillies are ranked 28th with a .591 OPS vs. LHP. Which isn't surprising since they were 21st with a .701 OPS vs. LHP last year.

On the flip side Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies after a great start but I think he has a let down here after trying to prove himself in the first start. Pagan and Posey are 7-15 vs. Blanton and Posey was 3-4 last night. Look for this offense to continue to click which is ranked 11th in OPS vs. RHP this season. Giants offense is not as bad as it was last year and they are better vs. RHP. Giants bullpen is their main concern but I"m not worried about them at home where they post a 1.17 ERA this season. Giants are now 7-2 in their last 9 vs. RH starter at home and that will move to 8-2 after tonight.

Angels -179 5.5* MLB POD I'm not a fan of many of the lower lines here today, but I love the Angels and even at -179 I see value. McCarthy has a 2.50 ERA over 3 starts for the A's so this line is a bit lower than it really should be and I"ll take the juice either way. Jerred Weaver has a 1.42 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Oakland who have a .225 .607 OPS in 178 career AB vs. Weaver. Oakland is 26th vs. RHP on the road with a .577 OPS and they are 28th overall vs. RHP with a .569 OPS. While the Angels are 11th .768 OPS vs. RHP this year. Angels at home have a .364 average and 6.08 r/9 in the young season vs. RHP and they've had success vs. McCarthy. The Angels have 71 AB and a .893 OPS vs. McCarthy who is getting too much credit here today is 2.50 ERA is impressive then again he did face the A's twice and the Royals. The one advantage Oakland does have is bullpen as they are ranked in the top 10 with a 2.45 ERA but the Angels have a 1.12 ERA at home out of the bullpen.

[b]Jazz -165 (5.5* NBA POD)[/b]
I like the Jazz in this spot at home facing the Mavericks playing their 4th game in 5 nights and the Jazz also have revenge as they do not want to get swept by the Mavericks this year. I think the Jazz get it done at home playing for their playoff lives.

Mariners -107 4.5* MLB POD
This will already be the 7th meeting between the Mariners and the Athletics and I expect the Mariners to take the rubber game int his match up. Both are very similar teams but in my opinion the Mariners have the better hitting team and they are of course at home here today. Jesus Montero is a big reason why and he's got an 8 game hitting streak and had a big day yesterday and is now hitting .323. Figgins/Ackley have also been key at the top of the line up hitting .320 and .308 in the 6 games vs. the A's this year. A's are now 17-35 in their last 52 as a road dog. While the Mariners hitters are enjoying success the A's are not led by their big off season acquisition of Cespedes who is in the middle of a 2-26 slump.

Blacke Beavan will make the start and he had a 3.69 ERA during day starts. I think he has some revenge on his mind as he didn't play well against the A's. Small sample and I was thoroughly impressed with his 3.48 ERA this spring and his 6.1 IP 1 ER at Texas, a hitters ball park against one of the best offenses in the AL. Beavan hardly walks people and if the A's don't get on base via the walk it's a real challenge for them to get runs. Godfrey goes for the A's and is off a 5.09 ERA this Spring. I don't like stats from last year and I don't see him going deep here with Cooper behind the plate where the A's are just 8-20 in their last 28 with him there.

4.4* NBA POD

Phillies -145 (4.5* MLB POD)
Not a ton of value here, but I believe it will be an easy win. Jonathan Niese looked great in his opening day start at home, but the road was not as kind to him last year where he posted a 5.33 ERA. Although I expect better things from Niese on the road this year looking at his xFIP I don't expect it today because I expect a bit of a let down after he carried a no hitter for most of the game in his last start before giving up 3 ER. He has not had that much success against the Phillies in the past and Utley/Howard not in the line up actually hurts him as the lefties were just 3-22 vs. Niese. Replace those bats with righties and advantage goes back to the Phillies who have roughed Niese up pretty hard in their ballpark. Niese's last 3 starts here have resulted in 16 ER over just 14.1 IP while giving up 24 hits and 4BB. Mayberry and Polanco have been the reason and they are both in the line up today along with Hunter Pence in the clean up spot who can do damage against LHP.

On the other side I think it's a mistake the Mets start David Wright who is 1-7 against Worley who had a 2.34 ERA at home including 2 GS 13 IP 7 hits and 1 ER at home vs. the Mets. Worley's xFIP is in the 3's from last year. The Phillies are also 43-18 in their last 61 vs. a LH starter and are built to beat lefties more without Howard and Utley in the line up. They are also 11-3 in Worley's last 14 as a favorite.

Rockies -107 (4.5* MLB POD)
I love this play Arizona has cooled down which is expected after playing in San Diego in what is a pitchers park. Now they go to Coors Field but over the last few years the Rockies have really learned how to win with pitching here. Juan Nicasio starts for the Rockies following his great 1st start 7 IP 1 ER with nasty stuff vs. the Astros. Nicasio will face a line up with 6 RH batters. That's good news for him.

First off Nicasio had a 1.98 and a 4-1 record at Coors last year before his neck injury. What's impressive is his 3.43 XFIP which is much lower than his 4.14. At home his FIP was even better but more importantly he dominates vs. RHB. He's averaging a 2.59 FIP vs. RHB and 6K/BB as opposed to 2.15K/BB vs. lefties. He's also allowing only 15.8% line drives vs. RHB compared to 27.4% vs. LHB. IT also helps that the Dbacks have never seen Nicasio before.

On the flip side you have Hudson who has struggled in April before and is coming off a rough start. He'll have his hands full with a Rockies line up that showed just what it's capable of with scoring 17 runs on Wednesday. Rockies are now 4th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .816 while the Dbacks dropped to 15th. Rockies bullpen has also been excellent at home with a 1.98 ERA and I think the starting rotation will start to folllow starting tonight. Both teams were close in OPS vs. rhp last year 8th for the Rockies 9th for the Dbacks but the Rockies are now healthy after having many injury issues a year ago. Dbacks are just 2-6 when Hudson is on 8 days rest like today. I see the Rockies winning.

Rockets -160 5.5* NBA POD Rockets are in the group of 5 along with the Suns to make the final three playoff spots. I'm going with the Rockets who will avoid their third loss in a row at home. I was not surprised with them losing to the Jazz at home it was a serious let down spot after going 4-0 on the road and beating the Lakers and BUlls. Now it's back to the basics and they are a better FT%, better on the perimeter and a better rebound team and they are home with revenge playing a team they have to beat that's in the playoff mix. This should be like a playoff environment and I think the Rockets win going away but I like the money lines down the stretch as we have gotten beat a few times by 1 point. This strategy worked out well at the end of last year.

Dbacks -130 4.5* MLB POD; Piarates +125 2* bonus
I love Ian kennedy in this spot here today as the padres made a late come back yesterday. Now Kennedy goes up against the padres who he has dominated over his career - 1.82 ERA over his last 5 starts and 44K's over 34.2 IP. His last 3 at petco result in a 1.00 ERA. The Padres are currently 24th with a .596 OPS VS. RHP. They have just a .207 average vs. Kennedy in 111 AB and amiserable .547 OPS.

On the flip side the Dbacks face Anthony Bass who has been in the bullpen and starting roll he had 48.1 IP last year mostly as relief but 3 starts. His ERA for the season was 1.68 ERA, but starting is a different game and his xFip was 4.62 which to me suggests he lacks the stuff to be a full time starter especially since he had just 4.47 K/9 and 3.91BB/9. DBACKS ARE 36-15 IN THEIr last 51 vs. a RH starter and I think having Jason Kubel will only help that in 2012 as he posts a .874 OPS vs. RH pitching over the last 3 years combined with 53 HR.

[b]Hawks +3 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
Celtics are playing 5 games in 6 days and I believe after last night's big win @Miami this Celtics team is going to be resting players at some point. More so than anything I'm loving the Hawks because this is a major let down situation for the Celtics. Celtics also just beat Atlanta on their own court and I think the Hawks who are good enough should return the favor here tonight. Celtics are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games on 0 days rest and 5-11-1 ATS when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

[b]RED SOX -115 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Boston looks to put their 1-4 start behind them in an earl day game today. Boston was 30-20 last year during day games while the Jays were just 26-34 posting a 4.53 ERA. Lester will go up against Romero twoo of the best south paws in the AL east, but Lester has been the one dominating the match up. The last two matchups the REd Sox have outscored the jays 22-5. However, lesters success is much deeper.

Lester had a 2.08 ERA over 5 starts vs. the Blue Jays last year and over the last 3 years has a 2.71 ERA over 13GS. The jays have struggled thus far in the early games posting just a .591 OPS during day games compared to the REd Sox .692 during day games. Lester has dominated Jays hitters holding them to a .177 average and a .554 OPS over 164 combined at bats. He looked good in his first start against the Tigers the #1 offense in the league currently while Romero looked bad in his start against the Indians one of the worst vs. LHP last year and one of the worst offenses to start the year. Cleveland posts a .557 OPS thus far and was 20th vs. LHP, but they got to Romero as he had just 5 IP 4 ER.

Romero has struggled vs. the Red Sox as Youkilis/pedroia/ Ortiz and Ellsbury are a combined 37 for 97 with 6 HR. Romero struggled and was just 5-6 during day starts last year with a 3.72 ERA while Lester enjoyed a 3.25 day ERA. Romero had 4 starts and a 6.56 ERA vs. Boston last year and has allowed a .838 OPS vs. the Sox over 180 AB. boston is 49-24 in their last 73 vs. AL East with lester on the mound and that continues here today.

Orioles +127 (2* PLAY)
Wei-Yin Chen not Bruce Chen makes his debut tonight against the Yankees and the Yankees seem to always have some issues with pitchers they haven

Brewers -126 4.5* MLB POD
Marcum who struggled in just 2 starts this spring, but he has a career ERA over 5 I Spring and has always been solid in April posting a 2.21 ERA last year and 2.80 over the last 3 years combined. He also had a MLB best 2.21 ERA in 16 road starts last year. Cubs have a combined 63 AB with a .143 average and a .460 OPS vs. Marcum who had 8 IP and 1 ER at Wrigley last year. I expect a similar game considering the Cubs offense which was ranked 18th last year in OPS vs. RHP.

Brewers on the other hand should be in good shape as they face off against Chris Volstad. Volstad has a career 5.63 ERA in 3 starts at Wrigley and he had a 5.32 ERA last April. Volstad has never been good early in the year and I expect the Brewers to jump on him early today. Aramis Ramirez returns to Wrigley after playing nearly a decade. Ramirez is a big key considering he is 6-12 with a HR vs. Volstad.

Red Sox +115 4* MLB POD
Max Scherzer vs. Clay Bucholz. I like Bucholz despite the uncertainty with his stuff off surgery. Bucholz posted a 1.02 WHIP this season compared to Scherzer who had a 5.76 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Boston has had a ton of success vs. Scherzer while the Tigers not so much against Bucholz.

Bucholz has 31 road starts over the last 3 years and a 2.94 ERA vs. the Tigers he has 5 starts and a 1.57 ERA including a 2.92 ERA @ Detroit. Tigers a different look, but still 103 AB vs. Bucholz and they manage just a .194 average and .606 OPS. I think the Sox will avoid the sweep here today with a strong performance from Bucholz and their offense which has 59 AB vs. Scherzer and a .946 OPS. Scherzer has 3 starts vs. Boston and a 9.45 ERA. He has two starts at home and posts a 16.71 ERA with a WHIP over 2 vs. the Red Sox at home. Boston is 46-22 in their last 68 meetings with the Tigers and 20-6 in their last Sunday games so I expect them to avoid the sweep and move on to the next series.

Kings +8 (4.4* NBA POD) Kings have lost by this number twice this year to the Clippers at home. Now they face at LA and I still like them. They were close in the game on Thursday but Demarcus Cousins had to battle fouls all game and only played 18 minutes. If he was in the game we would be writing a different story. One thing is obvious is if the Clippers weren't over looking the Kings before now they are as they look toward their next two road games at Memphis and the at the Thunder. Cousins vs. Griffin is a great match up and I think given the way Isaiah Thomas and Tyreke Cousins are playing in the back court the Kings are a very good match up. Cousins was not happy with Griffin or the officials on Thursday and was fined. I can see this match up turning into a rivalry over the coming years as it doesn't seem like Cousins or Griffin are friends. You better bet the Kings are motivated to avoid losing a third straight time this year and spoil the Clippers trying to move up in the playoff race.

Dbacks -108 4.5* MLB POD
These odds are just too good to pass up. Daniel Hudson has a 2.93 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Giants last year while Bumgarner has been successful he's struggled in Arizona as he posted a 4.27 ERA over two starts in Arizona. Bumgarner was solid in the Spring with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but last April he posted a 6.17 ERA. Dbacks have solid numbers vs. him with 3 HR and a .794 OPS including Upton/Young who are 12-21 with 2 HR and 4BB vs. Bumgarner.

Arizona was 17th with a .725 OPS vs. LHP but the Giants were 28th vs. RHP with a .675 OPS. I predict both of those stats from 2011 will improve for both teams, but the Dbacks have a .781 OPS from last year at home where they picked up right where they left off in 2011 when they were 7th in the league as they got to Tim Lincecum right away. The additions of Kubel and the progress from Goldschmidt are huge keys to this season for the Dbacks. I think the Dbacks get up early in this one and they don't look back as they continue their dominance at home as they are now 44-20 in their last 64 home games.

4.4* nba pod

Rockies -122 4.5* POD
Rockies are a brand new team and I love what they did with their offense adding Scutoro who gets on base and Cuddyer who could have a huge year batting behind Carlos Gonzalez and Tulowitski. Tulo is an MVP type player and very consistent he's 3-10 with a HR vs. Wandy Rodriguez while the Rockies players have 89 AB a .360 average and 1.037 OPS vs. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros starter.

Flying under the radar though is Jeremy Guthrie and he is the reason I like this match up, more than the improved offense from Colorado. Guthrie used to pitching in the AL Central now faces off against the Astros who were 27th in OPS vs. RHP last year with a measly .665. Colorado has a .733 OPS vs. LHP. Houston also 22nd with a .695 OPS at home. Guthrie had a 2.53 ERA last April and actually enjoyed a better Spring than in years past. Wandy Rodriguez on the other hand had a rough Spring 7.29 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. The Astros who got new ownership also have tons of young players now with the exception of Carlos Lee. I don't see how this team can be any better than last year. The bullpen was awful last year 29th with a 4.49 ERA and their starter today has 4 starts over the last 3 years and a 5.76 ERA vs. the Rockies. I see Colorado being back in the mix in the NL West and it starts by beating the weaker teams.

Kings +3 (4.4* NBA POD)
The Kings played awful defense last night and now they will have their hands full with the Kings a completely different offensive team than the last time they met. Demarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans are becoming quite the duo and with Salmons hurt Isiah Thomas has been able to fill in nice with more playing time. The Clippers could have a bit of trouble scoring they scored 99 their last trip here, but the Kings scored 105 and the Clippers tend to struggle with heavy legs after playing the night before as they average the least amount with just 91.8 ppg on 0 days rest.

Also they did just play the Lakers their rival in what was a critical game for their playoff seeding. Once again it was the Lakers coming out on top. I see a potential hang over here and luckily they get to play the Kings on Saturday too if they lose this game. Kings have beaten some good teams at home this year.

Indians +120 2.5*
On the surface it looks like the Blue Jays would be the play with that offense being incredible last year and everyone back. They even have a .323 average and .828 OPS combined in 65 ab vs. Masterson. However, most of that damaged came in 2010 in Masterson's start in Toronto when he gave up 8 ER. Masterson, a sinker ball pitcher is in a totally different situation at home here. He's posted good numbers in April in his career including a 2.18 ERA last year. Also Toronto on the road last year was nothing special as they were 15th with just a .700 OPS also 13th with a .719 OPS vs. RHP, so just average. Cleveland however had a .734 OPS at home last year and were one of the better home teams early. They are also healthy like they were to start 2011 when they got off to a 30-15 start. Ricky Romero has a 4.85 ERA at Progressive Field and Masterson just seems to be the better choice here in my opinion at home as a do

Dodgers -143 4.5* MLB POD
The Dodgers have a lot to be excited for with new ownership and the return of the NL MVP and CY YOUNG winners. Kershaw goes today and he is 25-7 in his last 32 starts vs. the NL West. The Dodgers have a major advantage in this game with Kershaw who posted a 2.35 ERA during day games and a 2.87 ERA on the road last year and even better he has 10 GS in the last 3 years vs. the Padres and posts a 1.87 ERA and a 2.04 ERA at Petco Park where opponents have a .171 average against him. The Padres were dead last last April with a .600 OPS and they were 23rd with a .688 OPS vs. LHP for the season, .665 26th during day games. I don't see much of that changing at least against Kershaw.

On the flip side Edinson Volquez tries to make a new name for himself and this is the park to do it. Volquez however struggled big time last year and this spring although numbers are not terrible 3.48 ERA he handed out 11 walks in just 20 innings pitched. Dodgers should have runners on base all afternoon while Kershaw picks up right where he left off. The one thing that's a huge question mark is the depth of the Dodgers bullpen but they don't need it today. Both Jansen and Gueara are the 8th and 9th inning guys who will get the work and both posted ERA's well under 3 last year with Jansen striking out an amazing 96 over just 53 IP and opponents hit .153 against him.

Heat -140 *5* POD; Heat/Thunder U197.5 2.2*
The Heat lost just a week ago to the Thunder in Oklahoma 103-87 and this team has lost just 2 games at home and are averaging 102.5 ppg here. They are 9-2 ATS when they score over 100 points and tonight I think they'll look to do that against hte Thunder who are just 4-6 ATS when they allow over 100 points. I think we will have a close game throughout but in the end Miami's defense will step up and shut down the Thunder who just lost to the Grizzlies at home after a big win over Chicago who didn't have Derek Rose. So much hype on the Thunder and Heat but I think the home team prevails.

Marlins -175 5* POD; U7 Runs 1.1*
The Marlins have pretty good numbers against Kyle Lohse who has an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts vs. the Marlins. What I like most is that the Marlins have seen him twice this spring. However, he's pitched well early in hte year and during this spring, but over the last 3 years he's got an 5.08 ERA on the road he's just not the same guy and this is a new ball park that's supposed to be pitcher friendly which is why I like the Marllins who have a lot to prove with all the acquisitions none bigger to me than Heath Bell.

Bell anchors this bullpen that was great early last year and came back to earth later. Marlins finished ahead of the Cardinals bullpen and to me they have a better overall bullpen for 2012. Josh Johnson will make the start and he's been throwing 96-98 in spring training and he's actually had a 2.11 ERA in April over the last 3 years combined so I'm not worried about him at all based on his spring training performance 15.1 IP 5 ER 17K's. Marlins should be pumped to open up their new ballpark tonight.

Kings +2.5 (4.4* NBA POD)
I love the Kings here they have serious revenge on their mind losing to the Suns earlier this year and the combo of Evans/Cousins is a real dynamic duo and getting better by the day. Since Evans has come back and been playing a new position he's averaging 56.8% over this last 9 games from the field. Their is a perception that the Suns need the win more so they will get it done, but I think they are simply over looking a talented team that I would have taken outright if Salmons was healthy and playing. The Kings have a winning record at home and the Suns are just average on the road and average overall. The Kings have beaten plenty of playoff teams including the Jazz (twice), Grizzlies, Celtics, Mavericks, Thunder, Pacers and Lakers.

The 3 refs in this game love the home dogs for whatever reason as their combined record for home teams that are dogs is 17-4 ATS. The Kings are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 as a dog. They should have a considerable advantage on the boards and get more shots here tonight continue their trend of scoring a lot of points. Over their last 5 they are scoring 107pts in their last 5 games. The Kings are 17-7 ATS overall when they score 100+. The Suns allowing 98.7 ppg on the road this year and are 6-17 ATS when allowing 100+. I like the Kings here with the Suns possibly looking ahead to their road game tomorrow in Utah, a place that requires fresh legs and another playoff team.

Warriors +7 3.3* Play
We had the Grizz last night winning at the Thunder because of the situation the Thunder were in after a big win vs. Chicago and looking ahead to their next game. Same thing here today with the Grizzlies off a big win yesterday vs. the Thunder and now they play on 0 days rest with a game tomorrow at Dallas who they will likely be playing in the playoffs. I can see them getting just a bit too comfortable in this game and especially after Gasol and Allen played 40 minutes a piece yesterday. Memphis has won all 3 match ups like we had yesterday with Grizz/Thunder with the Thunder winning all 3 match ups. Memphis only won by 1, 1, and then dominated at Golden State winning by 18. I think the Warriors want a little revenge and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 as a dog 5-10.5 points. The Grizzlies trend is they play up to their competition and down to weak as they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home vs. a road team with a losing record of <.400%.

Kansas to me matches up extremely well with Kentucky to the point that A.) they are the best 2 point shooting team Kentucky has faced all year long and they are also one of the few teams that can match up on defense as Kansas is #1 in 2 point defense while Kentucky is #2. Kansas will try to muddy this game and keep Kentucky out of transition. If they do for at least 1 half they should be in striking distance the entire game. I think they have the athletes to match up with Kentucky on the defensive end and they have great size in both the front and back court that should give Kentucky some fits in this game if it turns into a half court game which I think Kansas will be able to do for a good portion of this game making the under another intriguing possibility on Monday night. Robinson/Withey in the front court should be able to keep Kentucky out of the paint compared to their normal averages.

Grizzlies +7.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Classic hang over and look ahead spot as the Thunder just beat the Bulls at home and are playing on 0 days rest with a look ahead game at Chicago. Though the Grizzlies are a conference foe they have already beat them 3 times this year so I fear they may be over looking them despite competitive games as they won by 7, 5, and 3. Grizzlies out rebounded them in 2 of 3 and I think it is fair to say it will happen again the way they have been rebounding lately with the return of Randolph the Grizzlies match up extremely well with the Thunder and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take this game outright.

Pacers +4 4.4* NBA POD Pacers have a huge advantage in the back court with Martin/Lowry sidelined and the Pacers have depth their as well. I think that's a huge advantage which will enable their offense to continue to click. They've shot 47% and have averaged 102 points over the last 5 games and they shot 53.7% in their last game despite losing against the Spurs. I think they definitely score at least 90 here and when they do that they are 12-5 ATS on the road while Houston is just 6-7 ATS at home when they allow more than 90 pts. Houston also is probably looking ahead to their challenging road trip as they go to Chicago tomorrow and the Lakers after. Refs involved in this game have not been kind to home favorites .5-4.5 with a combined 12-17 ATS record.

Timberwolves -108 4.5* NBA POD
There is no hotter player in the NBA right now than Kevin Love who leads the league in March in ppg with 31.3. Love has been dominating with 37.3 ppg and 16.3 rebounds over his last 4. They go up against the Celtics who are now playing their 4th game in 6 days and they have the Spurs and Heat on deck. You can only imagine where their minds are.

Bostoon will look ahead where Minnesota is just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. The Celtics too are satisfied winning three games in a row and may take a mental break here as they are 22-49-1 ATS in their last 72 following a win of 10+ points. The Twolves are 19-10 ATS when they hold their opponents under 100 points and the Celtics score over 100 in just 26% of their games this year. Boston has not been a good road team all year and the Wolves have played well at home. This is a huge game for them tonight and I think they'll win. They lost to Miami by 2 and the Thunder by 4 here arguably the leagues two best teams. They also beat some very good teams including the 76ers and the Spurs 2 times so don't sleep on this Wolves team and now they have a star who the refs will gladly help out with fouls.

[b]Thunder -1 (4.4* NBA POD)[/b]
Thunder are the first team to shoot over 50% in 4 games in a row this season and they are at their peak right now which I believe continues vs. the Lakers who have lost back to back vs. the Lakers. The success of the Thunder to me relates to Perkins who has kept Bynum under control just 9-24 in the two meetings. The Thunder have also scored over 100 points in the two games. When they score over 100 points they are 28-5 on the season and when the Lakers allow 100+ at home they are 0-3 ATS. Both teams are well rested on 1 days rest where the Thunder are 13-8 ATS this year while the Lakers are 7-10 ATS. The refs combined tonight seem to enjoy the road team because home dogs 0-4.5 points are 2-14 ATS combined this season.

Mariners +106 (4* POD)
I like the Mariners in this match up I think they have an overall more talented team and they start the lefty Thursday morning with Jason Vargas going up against Oakland who he had a 3.86 ERA against last year despite a 1-3 record. To me the Mariners have many more dangerous hitters in their line up. I really like Ichiro's approach and he has said he's more determined this year and had a better off season it really showed with his 4-5 performance. Ichiro in the #3 hole they can afford to do that the way Ackley came on to end last year. He's your perfect #2 hitter very patient. Behind Ichiro is Montero the big bat who gets on base along with the prospect Carp. All in all there are many more dangerous parts and Oakland was 28th in the league last year vs. LHP with a .651 OPS. Though the Mariners were bad vs. RHP and they'll face Colon a major question mark this season I believe they have improved their offense. We also can't ignore the bullpen and the Mariners did not lose anyone out of their bullpen that was better a year ago and they added veteran lefty George Sherill to the mix. what looks like a pitchers match up I believe we see some runs as both teams had 15 hits on Wednesday.

Suns +2 (5.5* NBA POD) Spurs won their key game in their current streak of multiple games in few days when they beat the 76ers a key non-conference game to gauge their competitiveness against a playoff team from the East. That was a big win in their 3rd game in 3 days. Now the let down spot is here against the Suns desperate for a win to stay in the playoff race (currently 1.5 games back). This will be the Suns 4th game in 5 days and they travel on the road again on 0 days rest to play in Sacramento tomorrow which will be their 5th game in 6 days. Spurs are an older team bothered by injuries right now I just don't see them risking anything crazy and the Suns by the way have been playing excellent ball at home. Suns have now won 11 of 13 at home beating quality teams in the Lakers, Grizzlies, Jazz and Clippers during this stretch and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home. They get a nice spot vs. the Spurs with revenge and they have owned the Spurs over the last 12 games they are 9-3 ATS vs. the Spurs and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 at home vs. the Spurs. The big win over Philly took a collective high energy effort and even though they have 1 day of rest this team shouldn't be 100% for this game tonight and the Suns just need this game more.

4.4* play

4**

[b]Pacers +3.5 (4.4* NBA POD)[/b]
Interesting spot for the Heat on 0 days rest where they are 4-9 ATS this season playing the Pacers who they have already beaten twice this year. Heat come off a very tough loss to the Thunder on the road now travel to Indiana and are likely looking ahead to their home game against the Mavericks who they lost in the NBA finals. I like how the Pacers looked against the BUcks and I think that carries over here.

Thunder -120 *4.5* NBA POD;
I like the Thunder here as they seemed to have found their stroke scoring 149 points in OT last game out. The Heat travel and will play on the road against a team that can score points and that's not a good combination for them. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 20 of 24 home games this year and when the Heat give up 100+ points on the road they are just 2-6 straight up and 1-7 ATS. I think the Thunder have circled this game and are ready to take it to the Heat. They are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 following an ATS loss and are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. the NBA Southeast.

UNC +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
I was waiting on the Kendall Marshall official notice on whether or not he's playing or not, but still was playing UNC. I was hoping if he didn't play this would get up to 3.5 points, but with it still unknown I'll stay on UNC here at +3. Kansas won't have the advantage on the baseline this game and I think that's the key because UNC is #1 in the nation in rebound % and Kansas has played 2 other teams inside the top 25 vs. Davidson and Kentucky and they lost both of those games. Whitney/Robinson vs. Zeller/Henson is intriguing and I'll take Zeller/Henson over the other two. Harrisson Barnes won't struggle like he did Friday night and UNC will come out with a nice win.

Syracuse +3.5 (4.4*POD) Syracuse +145 1*; Syracuse+8.5/Florida +4 teaser 2.2*
I love Syracuse here and I think we are getting tons of value with the public and possibly some sharps moving the line a full point or more at some books. This is the first time Syracuse is an under dog and I expect them to be under dogs the rest of the way and I'll back them. This team is incredibly deep and I'm starting to view the Fab Melo loss as not that big of a deal.

If it weren't for Wisconsin hitting 14 3's Syracuse's offense was clicking and they would have won going away. Now they play Ohio State a team that lost to Wisconsin on their own court. I look what this Syracuse team is doing without Melo it seems they have come together a bit and their rebounding, a weakness in the regular season really was impressive in their last game. Though they were even in rebound margin CJ Fair ripped down some huge rebounds that he'll have to do again today and I think he will. Ohio State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 tournament games as a favorite .5 to 6.5. Syracuse is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog .5 to 3.5 and as mentioned this is the first time they are dogs this season. I have a hard time believing Melo is worth more than 3 points and I think we can figure this game would be pk or Syracuse favored by a couple if they never lost Melo.

Ohio +10.5 (4.4* POD)
To me I like Ohio in this spot as they are a defensively minded team that can shoot the three and has been red hot all tournament long from the perimeter. That is the recipe for upsets and they also catch a break with the Tar Heels losing their key player in Marshall. He's still listed as questionable with surgery on his right wrist "Not his ball handling hand." However, I don't think he's likely to play and if he does he won't nearly be the same. The Tarheels are an up tempo team that averages nearly 14 more FGA than Ohio is used to giving up. Without Marshall at 100% I see Ohio being able to stay in this game right through the buzzer. Ohio is only turning the ball over 9 times per game over their last 5 which should also lead this game to their style of play with minimal possessions this game is far too many points to be given a team that holds opponents under 50 FGA per game.

Kings -125 (5* NBA POD) Love the Kings here. First of all the Jazz are red hot beating the Thunder and the Lakers in back to back games and are due for a major let down here against the Kings playing their best ball in longer than I can remember. The Kings have real talent now with Evans returning and being unselfish letting Salmons start last night. Utah has a guy that matches up and is better than the Jazz big man Al Jefferson. Demarcus Cousins has dominated Jefferson and in 3 home games vs. the Jazz Cousins has averaged a double double 23+ points and 13+ rebounds. Jazz are 14-32 ATS in their last 46 following a win and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in Sacramento. Kings are 13-9 at home while the Jazz are 6-16 on the road.

Syracuse -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* pod Florida +2 2.2* play
It

Wash St +7 4.4* POD
Marcus Capers leads a group of selfless players. The Senior nearly had a triple double a few games ago and has his team in position to have some revenge against the team that knocked them out of the PAC12 tournament after beating them twice during the regular season. Washington State won here before and I think they'll likely be in this game. Oregon State has faced two of the worst defenses in the nation over the last two games. Washington State has held this team to 69, 73, and 76 and that's just not enough for Oregon State to cover this spread because their defense just is not that good.

Washington State is 36th in FG% offense and won that battle in all three match ups this season. Overall they were +2 in rebounds, but have a slight disadvantage in rebounding. Oregon State though gave up 81 to TCU who was 185th in FG% offense and I'm sure Washington State should get over 70 points in this game. Which means a cover in my opinion as Washington State is 10-3 ATS this year when they score 70+ points. Oregon State is just 9-13-1 ATS when they score less than 85. I see this game being played in the 70's. If Washington State does not turn the ball over and they don't get killed on the boards this should be a very even game decided in the last 5 minutes.

Hornets -2 (4.4* NBA POD)
Hornets came off a rare win and look to follow that up after 3 days of rest against a team in a debacle. I think the Warriors are lost for the season. Their owner got booed at half time during a Hall of Fame inductee for Chris Mullin because of the trades he pulled off before the break and even players admit it was not helping the team this year and that they were frustrated. What that means to me is this team is just going to turn into a selfish bunch. The Hornets at home will look to play and continue their streak which is at 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on 3 days rest.

Mavericks -4.5 (2.2* play)
Mavericks have lost 4 straight to the Lakers during the regular season but they look to bounce back and continue their 4 game winning streak. Lucky for them Kobe is struggling big time to shoot the ball and they are playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the 3rd game on the road for the 10th time this year. They are 3-6 ATS in that situation. They are also 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games and 5-9 ATS this year on 0 days rest. Expect Dallas to really come out strong looking to proof a point.

Oregon+5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Only play today and I"m going with the red hot Oregon team that split the season series with Washington. Though they lost by 16 in their visit to Washington this year where they return yet again I believe they are a much different team. This is a team that's averaging 83.5 ppg over their last 10 games and they just scored 108 and 96 against two pretty good defensive teams. They have 3 guys that can put up 20+ on any night in Singler, Joseph and Sim and now they are getting production from the big boys in Aghaolu and Emory making them difficult to defend. Washington has also heated up but I don't view this as a 5 point spread. I think there is a lot of value to be had on Oregon in what should be a very close contest. For one I don't believe Washington can slow Oregon down and keep them under 70 points. Oregon just had an off day shooting in Washington 32.3% the last time but they were +10 in offensive rebounds. I think they enjoy that edge once again here but their shooting will continue to stay hot. Oregon is 15-4 ATS this year when they score 70+ and 17-3 overall. I think this game goes down to the wire and I won't be surprised to see Oregon win outright.

Norfolk St +14.5(4.4* POD);Norfolk +1025 1*; South Florida -2 3* play
Norfolk State surprised everyone with their shocking win over Missouri, a guard oriented team. They matched up with them athletically which was even more surprising to me. Once again they face a guard oriented offense that can shoot the three with Beal, Walker, Boynton and even Murphy. I think O'quinn and Young who are roughly the same size will cross each other out. The real advantage Florida has is Murphy at 6-10 he can shoot the three or take it to the rim, but 1 player isn't worth this kind of points. Boynton, Beal and Walker will all be out sized and will have a tough time shooting over Norfolk State which does not start a guy shorter than 6-5 and better yet they are all Sr's except for the 6-6 Williams. Florida relies on the three so much with 44.4% of their FGA coming from three that I think Norfolk has a real shot at the upset.

3.3* POD

Alabama -1 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Alabama is really not getting enough credit here and I think they come out with a nice win.

Wvirginia +1.5 (4.4* POD) One of the more interesting games between two of the top 15 rebounding teams in the nation. West Virginia plays physical basketball in one of the most physical conferences. While Gonzaga plays in a finesse conference int he Big West they are pretty tough themselves. However, I like how West Virginia matches up particularly with Kilicki 6'9 260 vs. Robert Sacre 7'0 260. I think it will be challenging for Sacre to score points and get rebounds with a big body in the paint that he's not used to. On the flip side I give West Virginia the edge at guard with Sr. Truck Bryant over Freshman Kevin Pangos. Bryant is the key if he can get hot in this game West Virginia will cruise. West Virginia though will win the rebounding margin in my opinion over their last 5 they were +9.2 on the offensive glass while Gonzaga was -2.4. They've gotten it done in a tougher college and their two best players are Seniors in Kevin Jones and Bryant. West Virginia has a lot to prove after they blew a lead against Uconn in the Big East Tournament. This game will be 75 miles away from West Virginia's campus while Gonzaga has to fly 2200 miles.

W-ILL +11.5 (4.4* POD) W-ILL +555 1* PLAY
Western Illinois is flying under the radar. They were 2-6 against the top teams in the Summit but lost by a combined 8 points and 3 were in OT. They took South Dakota State to the wire in OT losing by 2 in the Championship and that game was in South Dakota. They've won more road games this year since 96-97 team and they step up in these situations.

Western Illinois is an overall solid team. ORegon State will get frustrated with their slow paced game. They are one of the slowest teams in the nation and that's not a bad thing they are just very patient and I think they'll find success on the perimeter like they have all year long. This team is also 11th in personal fouls meaning Oregon State is not getting to the line 25+ times in this one like they are accustomed to. Western Ill is also 22nd in turnovers per game and Oregon State once again relies on steals and turnovers to score points. Western Illinois will turn this into a half court game and it will be close throughout. Western Illinois is a bit more excited to be in a post season tournament to me and the fact that this team beat Oral Roberts and on the road took Michigan to the wire losing 55-59 proves they can beat an Oregon State team and the value is there. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. a winning team. They step it up when it matters. Sr. Guard and Summit defensive player of the year Ceola Clark will have a game to remember.

Bulls -123 (4.5* NBA POD)76ERS/BULLS ML Parlay +230 1* Bulls are 17-3 at home this year and have a 97-93 loss on the road to take revenge on. Heat have lost 3 in a row at home including last night in Orlando in OT. Bosh and Lebron logged over 40 minutes in the game and the Heat have not been that great this year on 0 days rest going 4-8 ATS this year. They are scoring the least amount on 0 days rest and now they have to play one of the better defensive teams in the Bulls who are only allowing 88.5 ppg on 1 days rest and are 16-10 ATS in those games. Chicago lost 5 in a row this is their opportunity to show they can compete with the Heat.

LSU +7.5 (4.4* POD); LSU +305 1* BONUS
I love LSU here today as they played right with Kentucky in the SEC tournament teams which not many teams can claim having a lead on this year. LSU comes from a significantly stronger conference and Trent Johnson their head coach knows Oregon considering he coached at Stanford.

LSU has to be thirlled to be going to a post tournament conference for hte first time since 2009. They have struggled on the road, but I think their motto of defense and rebounding will result in good results. These teams are more even than many think and Vegas agreed once upon a time as well. LSU and Oregon have two common opponents. Both teams played home against Virginia and were 2.5 point under dogs. LSU was closer at winning losing by only 5. They also both played at Vanderbilt. Both had 15 and 14 point losses, but LSU was 11 point dogs to Oregon being 13.5 point dog. Vanderbilt had a hot shooting day, go figure but still lost by 14. They were -12 in turnover margin. IN the two games combined it's evident LSU to me is the better team and should be right in this game. I like the fact that they own the better defense.

Talking about defense Oregon is 185th in 2 point defense and LSU will shoot 73% of their shots from inside the arch. On the flip side LSU is 93rd in 2point defense giving them a significant edge in this game. It won't be easy scoring against an SEC team that has a strength of schedule of 53 compared to 93 of Oregon. LSU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games while Oregon is 0-5 ATS.

[b]Grizzlies -110 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
With or without Rudy Gay I like the Grizzlies over the Lakers tonight. After he was announced being out the line did not even change. The Grizzlies play good team ball this is a team that won without him in the playoffs last time around and tonight it will be a defensive battle for sure. Right now they are playing good defense and they should shut down Bynum who has been playing well of late 23.8 and 68.4% from the field over his last 4. The Grizzlies have held him to 8.5 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in his career (17 games). Grizzlies are sizzling right now at home winners of 8 of 9. Their only losses have been to the Thunder and Spurs twice to both. They are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite .5 to 4.5 and I expect them to get a nice team win here tonight.

Clippers -5.5 (4.4* NBA POD)
I don't normally like favorites at this mark but this is a big fade situation with the Celtics who are obviously aging coming off a hard fought battle and loss last night where they had revenge against the Lakers. Over the past 5 games the Celtic starters are getting 70% of the minutes. To put that in perspective the Clippers starters are getting 61% and the Celtics are on their 3rd game in 4 days likely suffering from jet lag this game won't tip until 10:30pm tonight in their time zone. Boston is 6-20 ATS in their last 26 on 0 days rest and 3-8 this year. The younger Clippers are 7-3 ATS in that situation this year.

Clippers have been playing poorly but we have seen them step it up in a big way against good teams ( example - Spurs where they won 120-108 recently). The Celtics after a loss at home to the their rival Lakers lost in their next road game by 12 to Toronto that really started a domino effect with a 1-7 record over their last 8 road games losing by margins of 32, 15, 16, 15, 9, and 12 to some good teams and some bad teams mixed in. The Clippers are a very good team and should have multiple chances at extra shots. Boston is allowing their opponents 6.1 more opportunities per game while the Clippers are +5 in their last 3 and 9th in the league. Part of that is rebounding where the Celtics just are not that good as they are getting out rebounded by 15/game in their last 5 games while the Clippers are +6.2 and a very strong rebounding team. I also expect the Clippers to be focused at the FT line where they struggled on Sunday which should mean a cover here.

Vanderbilt +8 (4.4* NCAAB POD); Vanderbilt +280 2* bonus
We were on Vanderbilt twice in the regular season and came out 1-1 ATS when they faced the #1 team in Kentucky. A third meeting and I'm still on Vanderbilt here. I believe they are the more experienced team for one and in both of those games they had chances to win. Whether it was over coming a slow start down 13 at home to be leading by 4, 55-51 with 8 minutes to play or if it was when they led by 1 at half at Kentucky and were down 65-66 with 3 minutes to play. Either way Vanderbilt has been one of the few teams that have kept right with Kentucky.

Vanderbilt is a better version of Florida. Ezili is a bit better and more physical than Florida's Patric Young. Ezili not 100% healthy in the first match up was 5-10 for 15 points in the second. He'll have to be dominant in the paint to give Vanderbilt balance and the ability to shoot the three. Vanderbilt is actually ranked higher in 3PT% but they are more balanced than Florida. They have three shooters that are well over 40% from three in Jenkins, Taylor, and Tinsley. All experienced veterans who want to leave their mark at Vanderbilt who is playing in it's first SEC Championship since 1951. Kentucky on the other hand an arrogant bunch full of freshmen and sophmores and a coach that has already made it clear that this tournament means nothing that it is about the NCAA Tournament. Playing their 3rd game in 3 days is going to be a challenge for Kentucky that does not go as deep as Vanderbilt off it's bench. All 5 starters played 30 minutes+. Out of a possible 200 minutes of playing time the Kentucky starters played 180 of them Friday and 179 yesterday. Vanderbilt went 14 deep against Georgia without a starter playing more than 30 minutes and 10 deep yesterday in their win vs. Ole Miss. They will without a doubt be a lot fresher than Kentucky and have the motivation to revenge 2 losses during the regular season.

Raptors +135 4* NBA POD The Pistons have beaten the Lakers and Hawks back to back at home and now they'll be favored for just the 6th time all year vs. the Raptors. It is the Raptors but the Raptors are a better team and have been just as hot ATS going 16-5-1 in their last 22. Pistons are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites .5-4.5 and I"ll bet they lost a lot of those outright. I'm betting they will tonight too after winning two tough home games back to back and they're on their 3rd game in 4 nights while the Raptors did get an extra day of rest in this one and have been playing great defense of late. I think the Pistons confidence will be flying just a bit too high and the Raptors will be able to sneak in a victory.

Florida +9 (4.4* NCAAB POD); FL +375 1*); Wisconsin +165 2* bonus play
Three times a charm. That's the theme of this play of the day. It's no secret how you beat Kentucky. Shoot effectively from three point range. Florida is ranked 21st in the country in 3 point shooting but shot just 24.4% in the two losses to Kentucky this year. Florida takes their share of 3 pointers ranked #3 in the nation in attempts. Don't be surprised to see them take more than their average of 24.3 here today. Boynton and Walker the two guard leaders really have to step up in this match up and hit open shots. Florida has other three point shooters so if they move the ball and get open looks I have a feeling they could get up big on Kentucky.

I'm really not sure where Kentucky's motivation is in this tournament with their coach saying, "Their should be no conference tournaments." I think Kentucky has really disrespected the conference and the fans and their arrogance this team has taken on I think is really going to hurt them at some point. Florida already feels disrespected in the last match up and unfortunately they could not do anything about it , but like I said third time is a charm. They have the make up that could upset Kentucky. Patric Young has been a vocal leader and was a combined 15-25 from the field going up against Freshmen sensation Anthony Davis. He seems to have a better idea than anyone on how to score in an effective way. I expect a better shooting day from this team and I don't expect Kentucky to light it up like they did in the two regular season match ups. This one should go down to the wire.

Kings +1.5 (4.4* NBA POD) I think the Kings get a win here tonight. The Mavericks could be without some of their big men and that will be huge as Demarco Cousins is really starting to dominate as a double double machine. The Kings will continue to improve with all the talent they have. This is a team that already beat the Thunder and the Pacers at home this year. The Mavericks came to Sacramento and won by 2 points the last two times both last year so the Kings were never that far off. This is not an easy trip for Dallas they play once again tomorrow night at Golden State. This is their 4th game in 5 nights and injuries don't help that kind of situation going up against a young team which has plenty of gas in the tank.

St. Joes -1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Saint Joes was coming off a huge win at home over the A10

MAGIC +6.5 (4.4* POD) U183.5 2.2* BONUS; Magic +240 0.5* bonus I like the under for two reasons. Both teams are on tired legs, and won't be able to push it like they want to specifically the Bulls who are playing their 5th game in 7 days and the Magic their 5th in 8 days. The Magic are more rested and on 1 day rest compared to the Bulls who just snuck by the Bucks 106-104. These are two top 10 defenses and I think it's going to be a sloppy defensive game. I think it's huge for the Magic these next few games in terms of whether or not they can beat the elite teams and convince Dwight Howard to stay and that starts tonight. They get a break the Bulls are without CJ Watson and Rip Hamilton who are two key members of that team. Magic have been a good road team and are due for a win in the series, losers of 4 straight. The Bulls are not used to a team that plays the way the Magic do as the Magic average 28 three point shots per game on the road and the Bulls are only giving up 14 attempts at home. The Magic can win if they get hot and knock some shots down and I think they'll have some good looks with the Bulls short on quality bench players and playing their 5th game in 7 nights. Magic are 28-10-1 ATS in their last 39 following a SU loss of 10+ and the Dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Georgetown -2.5 (5.5* MAX POD)
Georgetown has lost 3 in a row now to Cinci and the last one came at home under extraordinary circumstances in the fact that the Hoyas came off an emotional lost 1 day prior to West Virginia.

Uconn -1.5 -120 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAB POD)
I've lost money on West Virginia before and even when they needed a win the most and were handed gifts like 3 starters suspended for a first half from Marquette they still could not put it together. Now West Virginia has talent and they will give Uconn a run for their money specifically because of two things. Offensive rebounds and FT's. Uconn has been awful from the line and West Virginia is one of the better offensive rebounding teams.

However, I think Uconn can over come both. They seem like they are about to get on a run much like last year. This team has plenty of talent compared to last year and many think they have more with Drummond at Center. The experience is there with Lamb Oriaki, Roscoe Smith and Napier from last years team and actually the return of Jim Calhoun has done wonders. Don't think it's a big deal he inserted Napier as the starter and you see other players getting key playing time. Uconn unlike years past can shoot the ball from the perimeter and yesterday shot 8-13 for 61.5%. West Virginia is not having the best year defensively despite their last game against South Florida. This team has allowed 45.9% in their last 5 and 48.2% on the road this year. Their offense is not good enough to over come that. First and foremost they go up against Uconn the Big East's #1 2point FG% defense. They lack an inside scoring presense in my opinion and will have to get points from the perimeter. There is a reason why this team took 7 more attempts from 3 than they usually do when these two met earlier in the year. West Virginia however has shot 30.7% from three. This falls into Uconn's hands in my opinion and is simply just a bad match up for West Virginia.

As far as FT's go Uconn is only letting opponents get there 15 times per game so I don't think it plays a critical role. I think Boatright makes some key three's in the second half. He's shooting 42.4% from the perimeter and is somewhat of an unknown by most. Drummond will avoid getting to the foul line and Uconn will move on.

Pistons +6 4.4* Nba pod

North Texas -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Despite revenge I do not think Western Kentucky can win this game. Their offense or defense is not good enough despite shooting 56% last night from the field in their upset of Denver. Denver was 200th in the nation in FG% defense and North Texas is 74th and when these teams met the first time Western Kentucky shot just 34.6%. While they'll likely shoot better I don't think they can over come all the other advantages the Mean Green have in this game.

Western Kentucky is just not a good shooting team to begin with 39.3% on the road and 39.5% overall. Both teams shoot more than 65% two pointers and do not rely on the three ball. North Texas is 83rd in 2 point defense while Western Kentucky is 116th. Pretty close but the difference is on offense and North Texas is ranked 217th to Western Kentucky's 302nd 2point offense. They are also much more capable shooting the three and even defending it as Western Kentucky is 306th in 3point % defense. What I like the best in this match up is North Texas is 69th in rebound % to Western Kentucky's 189th and Western Kentucky is shooting just 41.1% from 2 point range on the road. Meaning they will shoot worse than that for the game. If North Texas can win the rebound margin once again and get to the FT line more which I believe they will they should win this game by 10. I also like the fact that my formulas agree with North Texas.

S.UTAH +12 (4.4* NCAAB POD) SUTAH +6 1h 2.2* play; VCU -2.5 (2.2* BONUS); I like Southern Utah here after just knocking off perenial Summit winners Oakland in a shocker they have all the confidence in the world. S.Dakota is technically home in this one, but Southern Utah has the ability to score when needed their biggest downfall in this match up is the ability to get to the FT line. They were -18 and -19 during the two regular season games but still only lost by 10 and 7 points. Having double revenge and almost no pressure on them I see them playing this game a lot closer. Both games were close at half time 3 points and 1 point differences so we'll be playing the 1st half as well for a 2.2* bonus.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Raptors -1 (4.4* NBA POD) This will be the 4th road game in 5 nights for the Warriors and they are a long way from home in Toronto tonight to play the Raptors. They have had crazy success vs. the Raptors in the past offensively but the Raptors are allowing 11.3 points fewer than last year and the Warriors are in a skid averging just 82ppg and 38.4% shooting since the All Star break over three games. The Raptors have been extremely competitive at home this season and this is a spot where they can get a win as the Warriors just are not that good on the road to begin with.

Tulane -3 (3.3* play) I like Tulane here as East Carolina just came off a big home emotional win in OT over Marshall by 1 point. Now they go on the road to play Tulane for the first time and East Carolina has been just awful on the road and it's because of their defense allowing 47.1% on the road. Tulane on the other hand is allowing 40.7% and East Carolina has an offense that often struggles. Now Tulane will also have the advantage as far as getting to the FT line and 2nd chance opportunities as they are +8 FTA and +2.6 rebound margin at home compared to East Carolina's -1.6 and -6.2 rebound margin. Tulane also can pressure defense and after their recent game they'll want to make up for it plenty. They force 15.2 TO/game and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss of 20+. Butler -1 (3.3* play) We were on this play large last time and isn't it ironic that these two meet again. Valpo won both regular season battles but it won't matter in the end when Butler takes this game. Butler has played two times since scoring over 70 in both and getting their confidence back while Valpo hasn't played as they had a bye in the tournament and are hosting this game once again. Butler still has Sr leadership in Guard Nored and a couple of players from last years roster. I think the way they lost here last time will allow them to come in and play a bit less tense. They got off to a terrible start and that won't happen again. As I said in the first match up it's a bad match up for Valpo because Butler has the best defense once again in the Horizon and are a real threat and Vegas certainly agrees making them favorites on the road against the conferences #1 seed.

Missouri St -2 5.5* NCAAB POD
Evansville beat Missouri State twice in the regular season and what I like about this match up is that it is fresh in the minds of Missouri State who ended the year on a 4 game losing streak, but they did play the top tier teams in the MVC.

Rockets -3 (4.4* NBA POD)
Rockets have come out of the All Star break slumping as I thought they would, but now they return home off poor performances on the road that have their value low, but they are still an awesome home team (15-4). They beat Memphis, 76ers and even the Thunder at home before the break. Despite getting Ty Lawson back the Nuggets still have some guys out that are key players and starters in Nene, Fernandez, and Gallinari.

I think the Rockets match up well vs. the Nuggets especially since they are the worst defensive team on the road. They allow the most threes in the league. Rockets off their first back to back performances of 90 points or less, but traveling to Toronto and then Utah after a break is not easy to do. They come back home to face the Nuggets who are average on the road at 9-9. The Rockets are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 following a ATS loss and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite.

Idaho +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Idaho has an extra day of rest before they had to travel to Hawaii where they will get their third shot at revenge this season they are 2-0 on revenge games beating both Nevada (road win) and New Mexico State at home.

Jazz -2.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Jazz losers of 4 straight and the Rockets winners of 4 straight. Both on 0 days rest and I give the home team a huge advantage. The Rockets have been out rebounded in 7 straight games and its bound to happen again tonight in Utah with Al Jefferson and Josh Howard to grab enough rebounds and second chance opportunities to give them the win. They got revenge here just 11 days after they allowed Houston to shoot over 50%. Houston came out last night in Toronto and really struggled. I see that carrying over and the Jazz will buckle down considering they know they have lost to this team a lot of late. Houston is over achieving right now and their road trip they are starting will prove it.