3.3* NBA POD

Virginia Tech -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the winner could be a top of the Coastal Division. So as bad as the season has gone it can still turn around and I

Cardinals +7.5 -115 5* NFL POD; Cardinals +14/Under 45 6.5point teaser 2.5*
Two top 10 defenses face off today and John Skelton is back for a second start in a row for the Cardinals who look to break out of their funk. There is no better time to do it than Monday night and I think they have a chance to do it. I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Cardinals at more than a TD. Cardinals won last year 21-19 against the 49ers at home and they can sure do it again.

They are 3rd in thid down defense while the 49ers are 8th, both teams are in the bottom of the league in converting third downs 21st for the 49ers and 25th for the Cardinals. Bot teams also struggle in the red zone to score TD's rather than FG's, but I think the Cardinals have a better chance on Monday night considering they have an elite RZ WR in Fitzgerald. The 49ers have also given up 100% TD's in the red zone in their road games this year and are overall ranked 17th. A closer look at the 49ers and you see a team that has continued to digress on defense and offense. I think they are still living off what they did last year and earlier this year to bad teams. The Cardinals should be able to run the ball a little bit after Lerod Stephens-Howling ran for more than 100 yards last week against the Vikings on the road in which they were +147 total yards. So the idea that this team can't move the ball is a bit over hyped as well. Also the 49ers in their last 3 games are allowing 4.4 ypc and they allowed 4.7 ypc against Seattle at home. Don't be shocked to see Arizona at home move the ball better than San Fran.

Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD
I love the Giants in this spot, now only are they 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games, but they are 3-0 in Dallas since their new stadium opened up. The Giants are fully motivated and a better overall coached team and after losing the match up to the Cowboys to open the season this game because crucial to their season and I think they'll win it.

Cowboys lost their leader on defense and best tackler in Sean Lee so that's going to have a major impact going forward, but more than anything the Cowboys have to contain with a healthy offense from the Giants and a healthy defense. Hakeem Nicks will be back for this one and the depth that NY has at the WR position may be the best in the league. In the first match up Tony Romo took advantage of the Giants injuries in the secondary and Kevin Ogletree had a huge game, well that's not happening today. The Giants also should be better against the run, while the Cowboys should be without Demarco Murray and Felix Jones is also banged up.

Statistically the Cowboys defense has been great, but they haven't exactly gone up against the best offenses. Look for Romo to make plenty of mistakes in this game and for the Giants offense to click when it has to.

TCU +7.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; TCU +240 1* PLAY
TCU continues to fly under the radar and they are a few plays from being 7-0 this year. TCU is the best offense and defense that Oklahoma State has faced this season to date and they'll have their hands full at home against a well coached team that is playing more freshman than anyone in the country, but they are quality freshmen like Devonte Fields who already has 7.5 sacks. TCU brings the Big 12's best defense to town as they are going up against a balanced offense from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys though like TCU are having some issues at QB, although it has never mattered in the past we have seen their offense sputter a bit in conference play.

TCU went into three OT's with Texas Tech, an offense that's very similar to Oklahoma State. I would say Texas Tech has a better offense and clearly a more experienced QB in Seth Doege as Oklahoma State is getting ready to start a true freshman in Wes Lunt who has played this season already. TCU lead the Big 12 in interceptions, run defense, third down defense so it will be a challenge for Oklahoma State and despite the 56 points they gave up to Texas Tech they actually held Doege to under 200 yards passing for 3 quarters + 4 minutes before they started to get picked apart. Their defense has gotten beat by some big plays, but that's something that good coaching fixes and that's what Gary Patterson has, he has a solid approach and motivates his players and I"m confident they'll fix this issue.

We spoke about Oklahoma State's offense and Johnathan Randle is explosive out of the backfield but TCU is 27th against the run. Oklahoma State does not have the defense that Texas Tech has this year and they will have their hands full with Trevone Boykin who has put up 105 points the last two weeks since taking over at QB for Casey Pachal. He's a dual threat QB and that's something that Oklahomas State has not faced since their road game to Arizona where they gave up 59 points. If TCU can avoid turnovers they win and I think they will here on the road because Oklahoma State has not forced the turnovers like they did a year ago to win games. They sit 117th in takeaways and 105th in turnover margin so if anything TCU should be able to expose Oklahoma State's new QB who hasn't faced a defense that can get into the backfield like TCU.

Some other key stats. tCU is 5th in third down defense and they've been good on the road holding opponents to just 25% conversions. Oklahoma State is 9th in converting third downs but they've been successful going up against teams that are ranked on average 71st in stopping opponents on third downs. TCU can stop the run on first down and set up third and longs. TCU on the other hand is starting to get their offense clicking over the last three games they have converted on third down 47% of the time. Oklahoma State is nothing special ranked 55th at stopping third down conversions. To win this game TCU has to score TD's not field goals. It's something they struggled with against Texas Tech, as they kicked 6 field goals, but it still took triple OT for Tech to escape with a win. Now Tech has been better in red zone defense than Oklahoma State as the Cowboys have allowed 71% TD's in conference play and 71% overall on the year. Their offense also has struggled scoring TD's in the red zone just 46% a far cry from their 72% season average. TCU has hold opponents to 53% TD's in the red zone and should give Oklahoma State issues.

Louisville -3 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* NCAAF POD
I like Louisville in this spot tonight as they were clearly looking ahead to this game on their calendar and it showed when they struggled against South Florida. The biggest difference in this game is the QB and Louisville holds a significant advantage there with Munchie Legaux coming off his first road game this year throwing 2 INT's and now he'll play in an even more hostile environment. Legaux has completed just 44% of his throws on the road and 53% overall, while Bridgewater has been elite like with 73% completions and 80% at home which include 7 TD and 0 INT's!

Louisville's run defense has also been better ranked 48th to the Bearcats 67th ypc run defense. Cinci has given up 5.1 ypc on the ground on the road and will have their hands full with 2 capable RB's and a mobile QB in Bridgewater. Louisville now has lost to Cinci 4 years in a row and many of the players know this is the hump they have to get over and I think they will here tonight. Cinci will also be without their leader on defense in Walter Stewart who is their top pass rusher that should go along way as Louisville is 6th in third down conversions . I think they'll be able to convert on this Cinci defense that's having issues stopping the run. Louisville's offense also has been great in the red zone converting 80% of their trips into TD's compared to Cinci's 59% and their offense has struggled in conference games just 5 RZ trips for the Bearcats resulting in 2 TD's. I think Louisville has a significant advantage there as well.

We started to see it last game with Louisville getting a bit more aggressive on defense led by DE Lorenzo Mauldin and I think we see it again under the lights on Friday. It's a big key when Louisville or any defense can concentrate on a one dimensional offense like Cinci. I wouldn't be afraid of Legaux's ability other than the deep threats because he's just not accurate. I expect Louisville to force him into turnovers as this is his biggest game of his career. Meanwhile Bridgewater seems cool as a cucumber and should be able to move this offense. This is the best QB Cinci's defense has faced this year as they've faced 2 FCS foes and a group of over rated teams with the exception of Toledo who upset them last week.

MIN/TB U43.5 4.4* NFL POD; TB +210 1*, TB +11.5/U49.5 2.2* PLAY
I love our odds with these three plays tonight. The Vikings defense have played very well this season and now their pass rush is starting to click as they had 7 sacks last game. The Bucs are a bit better protecting the QB, but they should still be under a little pressure as the Vikings can get a pass rush with 3 and 4 guys. Freeman has not shown he can beat coverage teams with 7 or 8 guys going back in coverage. I think TB can win this game, but I don't think it will be because they put up a ton of points.

On the other side the Bucs are so under rated. This team is the #1 in run defense allowing just 2.8 ypc on the road and 3.1 overall. The Vikings strength is running the ball as Ponder has struggled of late and lets be honest he really only has one weapon in Percy Harvin. The Vikings won't be able to fully take advantage of the Bucs most glaring weakness which is defending the pass. This run defense is the real deal led by McCoy as they have faced 4 top 10 rushing offenses.

TB had a terrible defensive performance in their last game giving up 35 points to Drew Brees but that was to be expected. Any time this defense has given up points they bounce back with a solid defensive effort: 10, 16, 10 and I expect them to do the same here tonight. The Vikings have benefited by an easy schedule and some of the key stats just don't translate well for them here today.

First they go up against a defense that's ranked in the top of the league in red zone defense and 3rd down defense as the Bucs are ranked 4th allowing just 36% TD's on red zone opportunities and they've faced 3 top 10 red zone offenses while their third down defense has allowed just 35% conversions and 34% on the road good for 8th best. Vikings on the other hand are 24th in third down defense and have allowed 44% conversions at home. In the red zone they have been worse allowing 47% ranked 12th. They should be able to contain Tampa however as they are only allowing 41% TD's at home. Tampa is 7th in TD%'s on offense and they've faced just as many good red zone defenses as the Vikings. I like Tampa's chances to come up with a shocking win as I think many are over hyping the Vikings who have a one dimensional offense that throws to Harvin and Rudolph in the red zone look for safety Baron to take away Rudolph who hasn't been playing as well as we see a lot of field goals tonight.

Arkansas State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is a huge game for both parties in the Sun Belt race and should hold a playoff type atmosphere.

Lions/Bears U47 4.4* NFL POD; Bears -0.5/Under 53 3* teaser
I love this play tonight despite the Lions ability in the passing game which is one reason why I think we have a high total here. Guess what in Stafford's two games in Chicago he's averaged 5.2 and 5.5 yards per pass. That's a slow moving offense and the Bears have a group of sure tacklers. The Lions also don't pass nearly as much on the road as they do at home and even if they pass a ton I'm not concerned with this going over. Stafford threw 63 times a few years ago and still only managed 13 points.

Chicago's offense on the other hand should have its own issues in the red zone and overall. First of all they are not great at protecting their QB ranked 27th in sack %, Detroit just came off an excellent game from their defensive line last week with 10 tackles for loss and 3 sacks vs. the Eagles. The Lions will have to stop the run here because the Bears run the ball 49% at home and overall they are 27th in passing %. They go up against a Lions defense that is #1 in red zone defense and the Bears are already struggling in the red zone ranking 23rd.

The Bears defense is also in the top 10 in red zone defense and 3rd in third down defense and they only allow 21% conversions at home. Now the Lions are more of a threat but they are still one dimensional and are only converting 33.85% of their third downs themselves. Both offenses also have continued to be hurt by the penalties. I expect the under in this game as both QB's have not played very well this year and going up against a familiar opponent the same should continue as these teams know each other extremely well. I expect a lot of slow moving drives and a lot of field goals, but in the end Lovie Smith is 8-2 on MNF and they are 5-3 following a bye. Look for them to continue that trend with a win in a low scoring game.

Cardinals +127 4* MLB POD
The Cardinals have won their last 6 elimination games dating back to last season. They are 11-4 in their history in game 7's while the Giants have never won a game 7 and that dates back to when they were the NY Giants. Their ace takes the mound for game 7, but Cain has no pitched like an ace and going up against the Cardinals who are struggling to hit shouldn't help as he has an ERA of 5.89 and a 1.42 WHIP over three starts this year. Jon Jay, Matt Carpenter and Carlos Beltran are red hot vs. Cain. It won't be the worst thing if Holliday can't play today as Carpenter has been great filling in for him and is 5-6 against Cain with a HR in game 3. On the flip side the Giants have come up with some timely hitting, but Pence/Posey are a combined 6-45 in the series. If the Cardinals can avoid Scutoro having a big day who is only 3-15 vs. Lohse they should be able to again win in the under dog role.

Rams +6 5.5* POD, odds at SIA, Bovada and others
I found these odds all over the place, but I"m comfortable if you get it at +5 as well. All of a sudden GB gets a win on the road against a good team and they are back? I still think the Packers have a ton of issues and they are one of the more arrogant bunch of players who go on the road to play in St. Louis, a very difficult place to play. GB is all banged up in their front 7 and they will have their hands full with the Rams running game that just ran all over the then #1 run defense in Miami. In fact they put up 462 yards vs. one of the top defenses and they did it on the road. They went on to lose that game so much of that story is hidden by their 2-5 field goals that cost them the game. I'm fine with that as the perception of most is, "same old Rams." Many are jumping on the Packers and I'm not buying it.

The Rams have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and GB is a one dimensional offense that will have issues going up against the Rams, because the Rams are one of the best pass defenses in the league. It starts up fornt where they are 7th in sack %, and get to the QB 10.34% of drop backs. That does not bode well for Aaron Rodgers who is not having as good of a year. Rodgers has been sacked 12.2% of the time he drops back on the road and now without Cedric Benson he's thin at RB. I just think the Rams offense is improving and going up against GB's 27th ranked RZ defense where they have struggled will only help them in this game. I think the Rams have a lot of confidence now and could win this game outright because of their strengths. Look for Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan to make some impact plays when Rodgers throws the ball.

Browns +2 4.4* play
The Browns are so under rated and we had them in a huge win last week. This game is interesting as it's a repeat of the Fiesta Bowl in Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck. Weeden just has more talent and balance behind him on both sides of the ball and the strengths really match up well for him in this game. First of all the Browns easily could be 3-0 on the road with chances to win all three games vs. the Ravens, Giants and Bengals and that's saying a lot since all three were in the playoffs last year.

The Colts were exposed a bit last week in New York allowing 252 rushing yards to an offense that hadn't been able to run the ball all year. The Browns should have success doing both passing and running and I'll tell you why. Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty are as good as any tandem in the league, yep I said it. and now they finally get to go up against a run defense that's just not very good in the Colts ranked 29th. This will be a good game for them as they won't have to throw the ball on every play. Both of these teams are 28th and 29th in fewest run play % which says something about their faith in the QB.

At the end of the day Weeden will be able to find some open receivers because they will have a working running game and the Colts edge pressure won't be a factor against the Browns who are in the top 10 in protecting their QB. Browns have Joe Thomas and Michael Schwartz protecting the dge who are as good as any. Look for the Browns to be able to also score TD's and not field goals as the Colts are 32nd in red zone defense allowing 73.68% TD's while the Browns are 15th 50%.

Nebraska -6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love Nebraska in this spot coming off a bye this team faces Northwestern a team that came into their building last year and won 28-25 when Nebraska was 17.5 point favorites. Now they get to return the favor in NW's home field which won't be much of a home field advantage. This game will be close to 50% Huskers fans because Northwestern just does not sell out and that will make this a neutral site type atmosphere and add in the fact that Nebraska has revenge and is off a bye and I really like the Huskers this weekend.

Nebraska's key here is Taylor Martinez and the running game, but don't sleep on Martinez passing the ball. He had his best game against Northwestern last year 28/37 for 289 yards and 2 TD. The running game is deep for Nebraska with the healthy Rex Burkhead back and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah leading the nations 5th best running team. Nebraska is actually ranked 2nd from a yards per carry perspective. Now Northwestern built this team to stop the run and they are doing it ranked 32nd allowing just 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced nobody that can run the ball so that ranking is a little deceiving. The average rushing offense ypc team they have faced is 86th. When Northwestern sells out to stop the run Martinez has shown the capability to beat you deep and I think they are well on their way to doing that in this game. Martinez has improved as a passer completing 66% of his passes and has 12 TD to just 4 interceptions. It pays that he's had extra reps against Nebraska's first team defense.

With the bye week their was a lot of reps for both the offense and defense against the 1st teams. That will dramatically help them in this game. Nebraska really struggles against mobile QB and that's what Northwestern has in Cain Kolter. Kolter really surprised an unprepared defense last year as Northwestern had three rushing TD's and 207 yards rushing while dominating the time of possession a year ago. I think the extra prep and the awareness of Northwestern's ability to run with the QB will make a huge difference. It also helps because Northwestern has lacked consistency in the passing game as they struggled in back to back games vs. Penn St and Minnesota so this idea that they have an explosive offense is a bit over rated as they haven't cracked 300 yards in the last two games.

Northwestern's defense has played much better than anyone expected, but I'm not shocked they have faced some of the weaker offenses and Penn State showed some vulnerabilities they have. I look for Nebraska's WR Jamal Turner to have a huge game. Nebraska's offense is 15th in converting third downs this year converting 50% of them while Northwestern's defense is ranked 55th, but has faced an average offensive third down team ranked 90th and haven't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50. I normally don't like laying chalk like this but in the case of Nebraska counting on having plenty of fans in attendance I am very confident Nebraska will dominate this game from start to finish.

Oregon -7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Todd Graham in Tempe has done a great job so far with his only loss coming on the road at Missouri, but now he

49ers -7 4.4* NFL POD; 49ERS -1/U44 2.2* Teaser
Once again I think the public

Giants +125 4* MLB Play I like the Giants here tonight in a series that looks destined to go 7 games. The Giants are backed by Lincecum tonight who looked like his old self against the Reds and it's looking like he may not have to go up against Carlos Beltran. I expect him to pitch well and for the Giants to get to Adam Wainwright because they have hit him hard over their careers.

Yankees -110 2.2* play; NYY/DET U7 -120 4.5* MLB POD Both pitchers come into this game pitching extremely well of late and both teams continue to struggle to hit. They play in a ball park where its cold and known for being pitcher friendly. The Tigers are far worse vs. LHP than they are than RHP and I think CC will throw his best game of the post season knowing the Yankees line up is struggling. MLB umpire Jeff Nelson will be behind the plate and is known for having a big strike zone. In games with a total of 8 or less he is 11-5-1 in favor of the under. He's also in the top 5 in fewest walks per game so you know both pitchers will have to give up runs to actual hits which just have not been abundant in this series.

LA Lafayette -3.5 3.3* play
The home dog is not always the answer and tonight is one of those times it

Yankees +170 5* MLB POD
I think we are getting this line at great value right now considering all the facts. First of all Justin Verlander still in his career has a subpar ERA in post season play. It's one thing to shut down the A's, but now facing against a Yankee team that has over 300 career AB. It's clear that Joe Girardi is going to shake this line up up because they are not hitting and I think the day off is something that's going to benefit the Yankee players. Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games following an off day and are 21-7 in their last 28 following a loss. Yankees have plenty of success against Justin Verlander going 7-4 in his last 11 starts including post season play. Their line up has 13 combined HR against him and that includes 2 HR from Arod in 6 AB this year.

Phil Hughes out dueled Justin Verlander at Detroit back in June going for a complete game win allowing just 4 hits. Take Miguel Cabrera out who hit everyone and Johny Peralta who are just far enough apart in the line up where Hughes can pitch around and the line up is 7-44 against Hughes. I think he pitches well enough to get a win here tonight and the Yankees will pull out all the stops to make a series out of this one. After all they are 22-7 in their last 29 with Hughes starting following a teams loss.

Cardinals +108 4* MLB POD
There is a ton of value on the Cardinals once again tonight. Once this series goes back to St. Louis I see the Giants stealing a game or two depending on the match ups but right now this is one that does not favor a hot hitting Cardinals team that is full of confidence. I

Cowboys +4 -115 5.5* NFL POD
I really like the Cowboys coming off the bye as they have had a chance to get healthy along the defensive line with Ratliff and Coleman returning who will make a huge running especially against the run. They were off a bye last year in a similar situation heading to NE as a TD under dog and they led late 16-13 before falling 16-20. Baltimore is not the Patriots and they have not been particularly dominant thus far.

In Baltimores last two games they have shown weaknesses against the run and against the pass. They gave up 214 yards rushing to the Chiefs who don't hide the fact that they are going to run the ball and they gave up 320 yards passing to a rookie QB without any elite receivers. Cowboys have plenty of receivers and when given time Romo is capable of finding them. Austin and Dez Bryant are arguably as good of a tandem in the league and it's no coincidence that Dallas has lost their two games against top 10 sack %. Well not to worry because this is not the same Ravens pass rush or overall defense. They are 24th in sack % and if Jason Garrett is a decent offensive mind he will stop throwing the ball 68% of the time and get a balanced attack. I think the time off will help with that strategy.

On third down the Cowboys have been better believe it or not ranking 12th on defense and 18th on offense which is better than the Ravens 16th and 24th rankings. In the end this will be a hard fought game resulting in the Cowboys having a shot to win or leading late.

Iowa State +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa State +220 1* bonus
This is probably my favorite game all year and I feel most confident with it as Iowa State matches up extremely well with Kansas State. This is a pretty big rivalry with the teams separated by 350 miles and have a history of 95 meetings. For Iowa State players they have never beaten Kansas State. The last 4 match ups have been decided by 8, 1, 7, and 7 points with 3 of those 4 played at Kansas State and the 1 point loss at Iowa State. With a team full of veterans that were part of the team that shocked Oklahoma State at home last year, Iowa State has the ingredients for the upset as Kansas State's offense is not to hard to figure out.

Kansas State will runt he ball as they have ran the ball 71.67% of the time this year. Iowa State also will run the ball as they are ranked 43rd in running play % at 54.64%. This means the game is going to slow down quite a bit and Iowa State has arguably the two best linebackers in the Big 12 in Jake KNott and AJ Klein who lead a defense that's 29th in run defense form a yards per carry perspective and they have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses already this year. Kansas State is also very good at stopping the run, but they have yet to face a top 50 rushing offense. In last years match up Iowa State actually out gained Kansas State on the ground on the road and held Klein in check 26 carreis for 86 yards and 7-15 passing. However, 2 turnovers did not help their chances.

Kansas State gets by and wins games by not turning the ball over and limiting their penalties well Iowa State is of the same brand as they are 5th in fewest penalties. Iowa State just came off a game against TCU where they were +4 in turnover margin. I believe that will carry over into this game and with QB Jared Barnett taking over the offense he has limited the mistakes and he's made some big plays down field with two 50+ yard touchdowns a week ago.

3rd down offense and defense is a key stat especially in close games like this and I think Iowa State holds an advantage despite Kansas State being #1 in third down defense in the antion. For one they have not faced a top 50 3rd down defense all year long (53, 75, 105, and 101st ranked 3rd down defenses) and now they face Iowa State who is ranked 36th holding opponents to 35.7%. On the flip side Kansas State's defense on third down leaves a lot to be desired as they have allowed 43.46% conversions and they have faced offenses ranked 110th, 49th, 109th and 31st. Overall I just think the resume of Iowa State is more impressive considering who they played. The idea that Iowa State can't run is a bit over rated since they have faced 4 defenses that are in the top 50 and 3 of those in the top 25. Kansas State has had a ton of success against poor run defenses with 3 of the 4 being outside the top 100 and the 4th ranked 77th. You could make an argument that Iowa State would be favored if they beat Texas Tech. Iowa State had troubles because they could not defend the pass and that's something they won't have to worry about too much in this game since Kansas State rarely passes.

Cardinals + 5* MLB POD
Adam Wainwright is a very bad match up for the Nationals who have already been struggling to hit the ball in this series. The Nationals score runs via the home run and it does not bode well for them against Wainwright who only averages 0.68 HR/9. Wainwright pitched like his old self down the stretch and should be fresh and ready to go for Game 5. Meanwhile Gio Gonzalez will have a hard time he gave up 7 BB

Titans +6.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
I think there is tons of value here on the Titans. The public perception on both teams is slightly off and I think we are getting good value on the Titans at home as nearly a TD under dog. First of all the Steelers are ranked 22nd in total defense and 19th in total offense and have faced the 3rd easiest schedule this year while the Titans defense has struggled big time, but looking at the teams they

Reds -120 4.5* MLB POD
Despite the momentum being on the side of the Giants and the Reds haven

Yankees -164 5* MLB POD
This is a great spot for the Yankees facing a RH fly ball pitcher at home and we are not paying too much considering they have arguably their best pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda going at home tonight. Gonzalez has nice road starts, but the Yankees have already seen him twice and he gives up over a HR/9 and he also allows just 34.9 GB % which would be the third least among starters. His xFIP is 4.63 so his raw stats lead me to believe that he's not as good as he has pitched so far. This is a tough spot for the 28 year old rookie and he's been a bit lucky with a .260 BABIP and a 82.6% LOB. I think the Yankees at home where they are dominant 15-3 following an off day should be able to get to Gonzalez with runners on base or via the home run. They are 10-2 this year at home vs. RH starters who have a GB% under 45% and those starters posted a 5.54 ERA.

I looked at this stat because the Yankees win via the home run and they also win against RHP because they are a lefty heavy line up. They have good numbers against Gonzalez who is over achieving. Despite paying a hefty price of -164 I believe it's worth it and there is actually some value as I believe this line should be more like -180 where it opened, but the line has come down thus showing us value.

Giants +133 4.5* MLB POD
I see a ton of value in the Giants today facing elimination.

Cardinals -107 5**MLB POD I love the Cardinals to rebound here today. First of all Jamie Garcia is an excellent pitcher especially at home where he has a 2.82 ERA this season and dating back the last three years over 38 previous starts he has a 2.33 ERA here in St. Louis. He only gives up 0.52 HR/9 and that makes him a good match up for the Nationals who love to score with home runs. On the flip side Jordan Zimmerann over 5 career starts vs. the CArdinals has a 9.11 ERA. He pitched his best game vs. the Cardinals in his last start but still allowed 9 base runners over 6 innings pitched. Cardinals are still 24-8 in their last 32 home games vs. the Nationals and I think they bounce back here before heading to Washington.

Cardinals +100 5* MLB POD Tough loss last night with the under as 3 runs were scored in the 9th inning and a rare run given up by the Reds closer., but we move onto Sunday. The Cardinals are just on a roll right now and have been playing playoff baseball for quite a while now while the Nationals have known they been in the playoffs for a while. Cardinals are ranked 3rd in hitting vs. LHP and face Gio Gonzalez here today who has a stiff task because the Cardinals have scored 6.53 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year. Gonzalez had 18 road starts and posted a solid 3.31 ERA. He was so much better at home and in those 18 starts he only faced 3 top 10 OPS LHP NL teams and in those games he posted a 5.29 ERA. He's definitely taken advantage of weak opponents. Wainwright has a 2.27 ERA over his last 8 home starts and had a 6 inning 1 ER performance against the Nationals in his last start. Cards are 36-17 in their last 53 home games and 24-7 in their last 31 home games vs. the Nationals. The Nationals are the young team here and the Cardinals have a good mix of veteran leadership and young talent. I see the Cardinals taking game 1 here.

Browns +8.5 5.5* NFL POD With some of Eli's big receivers ruled out in Nix and Barden and Cleveland being one of the best at defending TE's in the league (ranked 3rd). I see Eli and the Giants deferring to the running game slowing this game down quite a bit. I'm not so sure they can do it successfully. Despite being able to run on Carolina they have struggled at home running the ball which is clearly not their strength. The Giants really don't have a home field advantage and this is the exact game they seem to always struggle in. Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Since opening Metlife Stadium they are 0-6 ATS against teams where they are home favorites of more than a TD. Recent ones come to mind, Buccaneers this year, Seahawks, Dolphins last year.

I know the Browns are 0-4 but They have an extra couple of days to prepare and they should be able to run the ball on the Giants defense that is 26th allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Cleveland is also 12th in sack % allowed which should allow Brandon Weeden more time than most QB's against the Giants front 4 and that could be dangerous because the Giants secondary is still beat up. We saw Breeden throw for 320 yards against the Ravens defense as he had time, but really most importantly is Trent Richardson who is starting to look like the most complete running back in the game. I'll go with Cleveland's overall defense and their offensive line. The Giants will be just going through the motions as they have the 49ers on deck where Cleveland will go for a win to shock the NFL.

SF/CIN U6.5 4.4* POD
I love this under not only are two of the best pitchers starting today for the respective clubs and are considered power pitchers, but both lineups are much better suited to produce vs. LHP. The Reds are 23rd in OPS and the Giants are 18th and it's not like either team closed the year hitting like crazy as the Reds scored just 2.13 runs per 9 overall in their last 10 while the Giants score 3.99.

Cueto has a 2.77 ERA on the road while Cain features a 2.03 ERA at home and both pitchers are very similar in their raw stats across the board. Both have excellent control, can strike you out, leave you on base, and neither allow a lot of HR overall or HR per fly ball. The one stat that separates them in a big way is GB%. Cain is the top of the league in least amount of GB% while Cueto is 25th in highest GB%. We took a deeper look at how each offense played against these type of pitchers.

For the Reds the stats are not very good against the Top 10 RH starters in least amount of GB%. These stats include Kyle Lohse, Ian Kennedy, Aaron Harrang, James McDonalds and I think you would agree Cain is better than all of those pitchers. In 8 total starts against the Reds this season those pitchers share a 1.49 ERA. Reds simply struggle against these type of pitchers and even more so if that RH pitcher can limit walks and HR's which something Cain absolutely can do.

The Giants on the other hand has faced 5 RH pitchers around Cueto's numbers and in those starts the pitchers have a 1.81 ERA. Those stats include games against Chris Leake, Zach Greinke, Tim Hudson, and Kevin Correia. Cueto has had a lot of success in 4 career stats against the Giants and I think we can agree he is better than the previous mentioned.

Lastly I looked at the umpire Phil Cuzzi because as we all know they control what type of game is going to be played. Cuzzi calls a game that benefits the starting pitcher. He's 15th in most strike outs per game and is among the top half of umpires in BB/game. In the NL games that he's umpired have resulted in 58% going under the total and he's under 18-7-3 in his last 28 Saturday's behind the home plate. Meanwhile the Giants are U 26-8-1 in Cains last 35 starts while the Reds are 23-8-2 in Cueto's last 33 starts.

The Bottom Line:
Virginia +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
A lot of hype for Duke right now after their quick start, but it's about to end as they just are not going to be able to overcome these injuries that continue to pile up. It's also a great opportunity for Virginia to redeem themselves and turn around their season and it starts with a new QB in Phillip Simms who has looked good in his appearances this year.

Virginia continued to have issues with penalties and turnovers and the move to Simms should help alleviate those miscues as he has 5 TD and 0 interceptions while Michael Rocco gave the ball away 7 times with interceptions over the last 3 games alone. Duke is not much of a defense in terms of forcing turnovers and even though they are ranked 45th in total defense they have faced an average offense ranked 94th in total offense. Meanwhile Virginia has faced an average 56th total offense and has already played 4 bowl teams in Penn State, TCU, Georgia Tech and LA Tech.

Duke can pass the ball I'll give them that, but Sean Renfree might not even be able to play as he's questionable in this one, but even if he plays I'm confident in Virginia's pass defense ranked 40th in completion percentage defense. They play an offense that is very much one dimensional as Dukes rushing attack is ranked 112th in the nation. On the flip side look for Virginia to be able to run the ball a little bit again. While Duke has been good stopping the run they really haven't played anyone besides Stanford who can run and even Stanford is ranked 77th in ypc this year. I look for Perry Jones to have a big game as Duke has faced rushing offenses ranked 106th, 71st, 77th, and 82nd after allowing 5.1 yards per carry a year ago. The injuries in the secondary will be huge in this game too as Virginia's speed will pay dividends.

Syracuse -1 5.5** ncaaf pod
Syracuse and Pittsburgh comes off a bye this week, but Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off byes.

Braves -170 4.5* MLB POD
I know we are not getting great odds here with a tall favorites, but I believe it

UTAH +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
USC has shown already on defense this year that they can get beat on the ground (allowing 5.5ypc against Stanford) or through the air (Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib 30-46 322 yards 2 TD's), and now they go on the road to Utah who is an angry team finally getting healthy.

I think the oddsmakers helped us in this one after Utah got beat badly at Arizona State 37-7, a game in which we were on Utah. Now everyone is loving USC going on the road but Utah has gotten much healthier in the secondary including getting back their S Brian Blechen off suspension. I think this will be a tight game like last year and playing at Utah is never an easy game for anyone.

USC has had protection issues as they are ranked 99th in sack % allowed while the Utes can get in the backfield and are 20th in sack % led by NT Star Lotulelei who will be trying to impress some NFL scouts. Look for him to play a big factor here tonight. That will make it tough for USC on third downs once again where they have had major issues just converting 31% on the season ranked 99th. Utah coincidentally is 22nd allowing just 32% conversions.

Offensively Utah is coming off a bye in which allowed them to get the offensive scheme in check and I think they'll come out and play a lot better. They get a healthy John White back finally and QB Hays has had some time to scheme up for USC who has been unable to get to the QB ranked 80th in sack % and are even worse on the road with a 2.5 sack %. People forget this is a rebuilt defensive line and the loss of Devon Keonnard via injury early was a devastating blow. I don't think they can win this game by 14 points. Kyle Whittingham is very good as Utah's head coach off byes 6-1 in his career and the Utes are 22-2-1 all time off a bye with their next game being at home. Take the Utes in a big game they need to redeem themselves.

OAK/TEX U7.5 4.4* MLB POD
What a run by the A's who will have a chance today to keep their momentum and win another game and win the division. The Rangers have been struggling and I think the struggles continue in this big ballpark. A.J. Griffin has a 2.52 ERA at home this year and he had a great start in Texas allowing just 4 base runners in 6 innings allowing no runs. Now he's at home where he's super comfortable with all the momentum on his side.

On the other side we have a classy veteran in Ryan Dempster who has a 2.02 ERA during day starts this year, a 2.78 ERA on the road and a 2.04 ERA in 6 straight wins for the Rangers when you take away his struggles vs. the Angels. Oakland has not see Dempster today and he should be cool as both teams will be in a pitching duel throughout. Each starter is followed by two solid bullpen's as Oakland has the 4th best bullpen while Texas is 13th, but better on the road. Both lineups are also better against left handed pitchers so they'll have a stiff task coming up here. The A's are under 36-16-1 in their last 53 home vs. a RH starter and Texas is under 6-2-2 in their last 10 road vs. a RH starter.

Cardinals -128 4* MLB POD
I like the Cardinals today with Chris Carpenter looking solid in his first two starts back from the DL. The Reds also are not nearly as powerful vs. RHP as they are against LHP. They are 18th in OPS on the road and 23rd in OPS vs. RHP. Meanwhile the Cardinals are pretty balanced and it just so happens they have dominated against Mat Latos who pitches tonight and has been red hot. Latos has an ERA under 3 and an 8-2 record over his last 10 starts, but hold on a minute he has not faced really anyone besides the Brewers and in his start against the Cardinals he allowed 7 ER. The other starts he faced teams ranked 25th, 20th, 27th, 25th, 24th, 26th, 11th, and 13th in OPS vs. RHP. The Cardinals line up tonight remains formidable with an active average of .393 against Latos and Beltran is 4-8 with 3 HR off Latos and has been red hot lately. The Cardinals have even out performed the Reds in the last 10 days in bullpen as the REds bullpen has a 4.76 ERA while the Cards have a bullpen ERA under 2. Reds have also struggled to his lately and are -1.04 runs per 9 on the road compared to what the Cardinals do at home. Cardinals are also 49-22 in their last 71 home games vs. the Reds.

Cowboys -2.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NFL POD
This game is a match up between two teams that have struggled offensively and really are very similar. Both have been playing well on defense and have had issues protecting their own QB and avoiding mistakes. However, it's going to come down to which offensive line can protect their QB better and playing at home offers a major advantage. When a team is on the road we see the difference constantly and in this game the offensive line is going to play the biggest factor and I think being home will greatly benefit Tony Romo who in my opinion is better at avoiding the pass rush any how.

Also, Cutler this year has the worst sack % 10.58% and that's even worse on the road 20.59% of his drop backs while Romo is at 6.09% and Dallas was actually really good at avoiding sacks at home a year ago ranked 5th. Look out for DeMarcus Ware to feast on LT JMarcus Webb of the Bears and Cutler should be running for his life most of the night as he just does not have the pocket presence that Romo has. Chicago would have to run the ball and do it well to have a chance, but I don't see them having that ability on the road.

I strongly believe this line is off a bit and in reality should be -4 or 4.5. Dallas struggled at home against Tampa, but they should have lost that game and the fact that they won it despite 3 turnovers and 13 penalties has to tell you something about the overall talent of this team. Chicago meanwhile has benefited largely to being home for two games and is a different team on the road. The Bears have been the #1 team in third down defense this year, but the Cowboys are right behind them only allowing 29.27% conversions and Dallas has had greater success converting them actually converting 10% more 3rd downs than Chicago That should play a key factor in a tight game. Overall I like the additions to the Cowboys secondary and if you haven't seen it in action yet stay tuned for tonight's game because it's a lot better than it was a year ago.

Nationals -142 4* MLB POD
I haven't bet on this team much this year and I still do not think they will make it very far in the playoffs. Yesterday I had the Cardinals dominating them as a max play for the very situation they are in tonight. A win tonight at home they clinch the NL East and they get to celebrate and guess what they will get it done tonight against Kyle Kendrick who they homered against 3 times in his last start. I see Kendrick struggling again and the gritty Nationals will get it done like they have all year long at home and we get pretty decent odds considering the Nationals have .299 and .912 OPS vs. Kendrick in 164 career at bats led by Ryan Zimmerman who is 10-30 and Bryce Harper who is 5-9. Both have been hitting well of late as the Nationals are scoring 5.59 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games combined. The Nationals just .204 and 3.95 runs per 9. On the year the Phillies have struggled vs. lefties with just 3.53 runs per 9 on the road.

Dolphins +4.5 4.4*
As good as the Cardinals have been on defense they are still getting too much respect. They actually are negative yards in every game and that has to say something. Meanwhile the Dolphins are much better than their record indicates. They are 3rd in the league in run defense allowing 66 yards per game. Arizona has struggled punching the ball in at the goal line with the run and their offensive line has struggled and should have their hands full with the Dolphins front 4 including Cameron Wake who should spend plenty of time in the backfield today.

I also don't trust Arizona's starting running back Ryan Williams. He's fumble prone since college and has had issues this year. Look for the turnover battle to play a huge factor in this game. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense has been pretty decent considering they start a rookie QB. Ryan Tannehill is athletic and he's running the same offense he did in college so in a sense he's much further ahead than most rookie QB's. He's also backed by a good rushing team. Both teams like to run the ball more than pass as they are both inside the top 10 in rush %, but the Dolphins are far better at running the ball and stopping the run. Arizona is 30th with just 2.8 ypc, and their defense is 12th allowing 3.9 ypc and should have their hands full with the Dolphins backs today.

Cardinals -130 5.5* MLB POD Cards are off a loss and will face the Nationals who can clinch the NL East with a win. I think much of the Nationals would rather do that at home against Philadelphia on Monday and the Cardinals coming off a loss would like to keep their wild card spot and need this win. Lance Lynn is red hot with an ERA under 1 over his last 3 starts since rejoining the rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen. He's got an extra day of rest under his belt compared to Ross Detwiler. Detwiler has a stiff task against the Cardinals who are #3 in OPS vs. LHP and #3 in OPS during day games. The Nationals are also 8-17 in their last 25 road games with Detwiler on the hill and they are 7-23 in their last 30 in St. Louis. Cardinals are 18-6 in their last 24 at home vs. LH starter.

Panthers +7.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Panthers really struggled big time in their last game on Thursday night against the Giants, but they get an extra couple of games to prepare for a huge divisional game against the Falcons who are on fire. I actually think this game will be close. Remember last year the Panthers were tied in the 14th quarter at 17 with the Falcons and their are a lot of things that align for the Panthers to give the Falcons a little scare here today.

For on the Falcons defense is getting too much respect. For one they are 24th allowing 128.7 ypg on the ground and 31st allowing 5.0 yards per carry and it seems obvious that Carolina curtails their offensive scheme to the weakness of the defense they are facing rather than their strength (which is running the ball). That's why I like Carolina today because they will be doing what they do best. It helps big time that they will be getting their Tackle back in Bell and Johnathan Stewart giving them a third weapon for attacking the Falcons weakness. Carolina has only one game where they have rushed it over 20 times ironically that was their only win against New Orleans. Look for them to get back to that against the Falcons and that should allow them to keep it out of Matt Ryan's hands.

Lastly The Falcons are 31st in allowing opponents to convert on third down allowing 51.28 % conversions. Carolina isn't much better at 46%, but once again this is too many points for a divisional game especially when the Falcons still have a lot of question marks as they are also 30th in red zone TD%. When Cam Newton gets down there he should be able to score TD's. At the end of the day I think the Falcons may be getting a little cocky and the Panthers just got humbled which I think is what needed to happen to Newton. I expect them to bounce back especially with the extra preparation.

4** MLB POD

Michigan State -2.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
It's a huge match up between the two best teams in the Big Ten and I love Michigan State to defeat the Buckeyes for the second year in a row. For one there are a lot of question marks surrounding Ohio State. For one this is their firsst road game of the year and as good as their defense has looked at times their secondary has been a disaster at times and they haven't faced any capable offenses with total offensive ranks of opponents ranked - 75, 78, 71, and 99th. Michigan State is by no means an elite offense ranked 62nd, but in the end it will be the better defense winning this game.

I"m still not even sold on the Buckeyes rush defense which is ranked 35th allowing 121.8 yards per game. Keep in mind this is a team that on the road last year allowed 187.5 yards per game. They have some serious questions up front and have not lived up to the hype and have gotten away because the secondary has come up with 7 interceptions. I think Michigan State QB has already played in two big games against Notre Dame and Boise State that has allowed him to have more sense of confidence as we look towards this big game. IT also doesn't hurt that Michigan State is home. Michigan State is also 9th against the run and has the best trio of linebackers in the country (arguably). Ohio State has faced run defenses ranked 96th, 104th, 120th, and 65th. Michigan State is also 3rd in completion % defense so Braxton Miller is going to have a hard time getting this offense going and at some points he's going to force a few bad plays leading to interceptions. It'll be close throughout but Le'Veon Bell should take this game over. This game reminds me of when Ohio State lost on the road to Nebraska last year where Nebraska was able to control the game with the run and play excellent defense. In that game Ohio State was actually able to run to 5.9 ypc and that's just not going to happen on the road against this Michigan State front 7.

Washington +7 -120 4* play

Rays -108 4.5* MLB POD I love the Rays in this spot here tonight as they are the hot team winning 8 straight and out scoring teams 55-17 during that span while the White Sox have lost 7 of 8 and are only averaging 2.5 runs per game as Konerko has really struggled in the middle of the line up going just 8-44 in his last 12 games and he has struggled big time vs. Shields just 4-23. Rays are just 3 games out and they are used to playing under pressure as they got into a wild card game jsut a year ago on the last day of the season as they played extremely well down the stretch. With a win they can come within 2 games of the A's who lost earlier today and they have their ace in Shields on the mound. Shields is 7-2 with a 2.04 ERA over his last 10 starts while Peavy is 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA since the All Star break and 2-1 with a 6.48 ERA in 3 career starts vs. the Rays. Upton, Zobrist and Pena are a combined 8-19 with 2 HR and 4 BB and they will be the catalysts for the win here today. Each of them has been quite success of late and throw in Evan Longoria and Jeff Keppinger who are a combined 20-45 over their last 7 days and this line up should get the job done. They are scoring over 8 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 and are led by the majors best bullpen that is nearly 1 run in ERA better than the Whites Sox.

Ravens -6.5/Over37.5 4.4* NFL POD TEASER
I don't like the middle point spreads of 10.5-13.5 when I like the favorite. Traditionally I like the dog in this match up when a team like Baltimore is coming off a dramatic win, but Cleveland is struggling and is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Baltimore. Cleveland also is the same team that just comes off a poor performance at home against the Bills allowing 24 points. Going on the road against the Ravens who are scoring frequently I'm confident the Ravens will score in bunches. Baltimore is 1st in red zone conversions as far as TD% goes and although the Browns are tough against the pass they are not the same without Joe Haden. This is a different Ravens team than in years past as they slowly shift to a pass first mentality behind Joe Flaco who is quietly turning into a star (101 QB rating this year). Andy Dalton put up 318 yards on 24/31 against the Browns secondary and they managed 34 points and they were just 1-3 in the red zone. Just imagine what Flaco will be able to do along with his balanced rushing attack. Cleveland should be able to put up some points as the Ravens defense does look older and a step slower. I expect a score of 34-10 or 34-17, but I like the teaser a whole lot better than the spread.

Angels -136 4.5* MLB POD
The Mariners are losers of 11 of 16 while the Angels are winners of 23 of 32 and I feel confident we are getting good odds here based on the Angels success this year vs. King Felix who has yet to throw a quality start against them. Part of the difference has been Trumbo,Trout and Pujols who all have homered off Felix and are combined 16-51. The Angels have two other hitters that are hitting over .300 vs. Felix in Morales and Hunter. I expect that to be a difference maker with Wilson on the mound who should be fresh in this one. The Mariners are 25th in OPS vs. LHP this year and have struggled vs. Wilson who posts a 1.53 ERA over his last 5 starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle is also just 17-42 in their last 59 against the Angels.

Dodgers -114 4.5* MLB POD
A day off and the Dodgers should be mentally back in it as they are 15-7 following an off day over their last 22. Tuesday night they get to face Edinson Volquez who walks more guys per 9 innings than any other pitcher in baseball. I think that gets this team into good hitting counts and will allow them to put up some runs. Adrian Gonzalez finally snapped out of his slump and hit 2 solo home runs on Sunday so watch for him as he's 2-6 against Volquez. Victorino/Ellis/Ethier/ and Kemp are a combined 20-48 off Volquez and the team collectively shares a .430 OBP which is just huge.

I think Josh Beckett will benefit big time from playing in a big ball park like Petco where the Dodgers are 10-5 over their last 15 visits. Look for this to be a nice clutch game from him and look for the Dodgers to continue to hit Volquez who in 4 starts this year has pitched 5 innings in each game. Overall he has just a 6.30 ERA in those starts, but this game should get to the bullpen quick and his 2.00 WHIP suggests that his ERA should be much higher.

Seahawks +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
We all know about the 12th man and the degree of difficulty of playing in Seattle. I wanted to take the Seahawks a week ago hosting the Cowboys and we saw first hand how dominating the Seahawks can be especially on the defense side of the ball where they will are the #1 run defense in terms of yards allowed and have only been allowing 2.6 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers needs a balanced attack on the road or he will struggle as we have seen at times this year. Seattle has some talented secondary players and a strong front 7 that will create pressure. Right now the Packers can no protect Rodgers as they are 28th in sack % as Rodgers is getting sacked 9.41 % of his drop backs. That's extremely high considering how great he is in the pocket. That stat does not complete the full picture of how bad the offensive line has been.

Seattle on the other hand is being under rated here again. They have a very very good run game ranked 6th and should have their way with a Packers defense that's ranked 31st allowing 5.1 ypc and 140 yards per game thus far this year. I expect Seattle to run it and for Rusell Wilson complete an efficient game. Suddenly their 16-20 loss looks a lot better at Arizona after how dominating the Cardinals have looked thus far. Overall they've played two top 5 defenses and now they are about to face a team whose defense is not top 10. Packers have the extra rest here but they were 0-2 ATS last year in their road games with extra rest following a Thursday game the week before.

[b]Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
Pittsburgh is not the same old team, yes they are old, but they are not elite any more. Oakland has been a disapointment thus far but I like their chances against a Steeler defense that is banged up. The Jets moved the ball well on this unit in their first 2 drives then they struggled the rest of the game, but I think Oakland being at home will have more success behind the right arm of Carson Palmer who is playing extremely well considering he doesn't have a tight end or elite receivers. However, Oakland at home is going to be a tough team to beat and unlike their first game Palmer will have Moore in there which will open up this offense quite a bit.

The Steelers offense is in flux as well. They can't protect Big Ben and they can't run the ball just 2.6 ypc this year. Big Ben has been sacked 8 times and it could be more. The problem is bringing him down and the Raiders actually have a defensive line that's big enough to do it. They have more strength than speed and that will help them in this one. on the other side Palmer was not sacked last week against the Dolphins and that should allow him to be in good situations on third down if he continues that which he should. It will help that the Steelers are 22nd in third down defense. I expect a big game for Oakland iand it's offense to make a nice come back here.

Utah +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5.5*
Utah gets a huge boost with the return of John White this week and they are 8-0 when he rushes over 100 yards. After rushing for 85 last year he should be on his away against Arizona State as Utah seeks revenge after losing 35-14 at home a year ago to the Sun Devils. Last year was a unique situation because it was the first game QB John Hays was thrown into the fire at QB after Wynn got hurt. This year it is Hays again because of a career ending injury to Wynn and he's much more prepared. Utah led last year 14-13 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter it was Hays 3 interceptions that sparked Arizonas State's victory as Utah was -5 in turnover margin and Brock Osweiler was able to keep a balanced offense.

Well Osweiler is off in the NFL playing for the Broncos and Arizona State has a new coach and he's not a very good one in my opinion in Todd Graham who will run an uptempo offense and use two QB's. That's going to be a major issue going into this game because Utah's defense is the real deal led by Star Lotulelei, the defensive line should get push and pressure with just a 4 man blitz. That will create issues for sophomore QB Todd Kelly and I think the turnover advantage will be flipped in Utah's advantage. Make no mistakes about it Utah will make Arizona work for their first downs and points as they are 14th in 3rd down conversion defense while Arizona State is 79th and their offense despite putting up some points has only converted 26% of their opportunities.

In ugly games like this it comes down to who can play better special teams and create turnovers and I give that edge to Utah who is led by two senior kickers including punter Tom Hacket who is fresh off his PAC 12 special teams player of the week award. As far as turnovers go, I think they are in the rearview mirror for Hays he completed 67% of his passes last week and has 2 TD's 0 interceptions on the year. Add in that Arizona State is sacked 8.2% of their drop backs and I think we have a recipe for some opportunistic plays from the Utes defense.

5**mlb play of the day

Arizona Dbacks -133 4.5* MLB POD
Colorado is losers of 13 of 15 and 4 of their last 5 to the Diamondbacks who are still playing for the wild card spot. Wade Miley is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in 4 appearances 3 starts vs. the Rockies who could be without Carlos Gonzalez their best hitter in tonight's game after leaving his last game with a leg injury. Arizona will go up against Drew Pomeranz and I think the Diamondbacks have a major advantage here in the pitching match up.

First of all the Dbacks are 7th in OPS vs. LHP this year and Pomeranz has not pitched well at home which is no surprise given his stat line. He' snot a guy that is over powering and he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9. He also has 13.5% HR/FB percentage which is not a good mix for Coors Field. To put things in perspective Wade Miley is 4th among starters with a 7% HR/FB and is walking less than 2 guys per 9. That's a major advantage here along with the bullpen of the Diamondbacks which has a 1.04 ERA over their last 10 compared to the Rockies 6.55. Diamondbacks bullpen actually has pitched extremely well all year on the road 2.68 ERA while the Rockies have a 4.94 at home. Colorado even with Gonzalez in the line up will struggle against Miley in 54 AB they have a .222 average and .615 OPS while in just 18 AB the Dbacks are 9-18 and post an OPS over 1.200.

BYU +7 4.4* NCAAF POD
A short week off after a tough loss to Utah can only be a good thing for this veteran team. Playing a team like Boise State on national television will be a quick opportunity to find redemption and this is not the same Boise State team of previous years.

NYG/CAR U50 4.4* NFL POD
I like the under in tonight's game as both teams should take a run first approach. Starting with the Giants they are really banged up without Hixon or Nicks and without David Diehl. Even without Ahmad Bradshaw we should see a heavy dose of Brown/Wilson in the running game because Eli is smart enough to know without Hixon and Nicks and with Carolina likely double teaming Cruz that he will have to get the running game going against a vulnerable run defense.

Unfortunately for the Giants they haven't been good enough to run the ball and I think Carolina will shut it down creating a low scoring game as they have the linebackers to do it and the Giants lack the skill up front to block even though Carolina is allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground this year. On the flip side you would assume Cam Newton and Carolina would like to open it up offensively and they did in week 1 with poor results. Look for more ground in pound from Cam and the rest of the bunch as he likely does not want to take three step drops and get hit by the ferocious pass rush of the Giants. The best chance for the Panters is to get their running option attack working. Both teams have struggled to convert on third downs while the defenses have been pretty good on third downs. The Giants and the Panthers are only converting 36% of their third downs which tends to lead towards unders in this situation.

More than anything both teams are banged up a bit and are playing on extremely short weeks early in the season. The offenses do not have much time to put in any crazy game plans so expect a vanilla approach and for both defenses to be well prepared.

Orioles +140 4* MLB POD
Getting points with the way this team has played is just kind of crazy to me even against Felix. Felix has not been the same ever since his perfect game and with good reason. He's got an ERA of 9 over his last3 starts combined and he hasn't pitched well in games vs. the Orioles of late with many of their hot hitters finding success against him. Markakis, Davis, Jones and Weiters are a combined 33-91 off him and Mark Reynolds is 1-4 with a HR.

On the flip side Joe Saunders goes for the Orioles and he goes up against a Mariners team that is 26th in OPS vs. LHP. Saunders also has had plenty of success over his career vs. the Mariners who are struggling to hit right now and were 0-17 with runners in scoring position last night. Saunders has an ERA of 0.83 in his last 5 starts at Safeco.

Kent St +4 4.4* POD
to me the oddsmakers are getting away with what the public will misinterpret each team

Broncos +3.5 -115 (5* NFL POD)
I love the Broncos here and suggest buying a half point if it's affordable otherwise I see the Broncos winning this game themselves. First off it's pretty obvious the way this game should go and it will come down to who can stop the opposing QB. It's going to be like a chess match, but after Manning put up 31 points on a very good Steelers defense I can't help but back him in this game.

First of all the loss of Brent Grimes has a huge impact in a game like this for the Falcons whose nickel scheme is completely screwed up. Look for Manning to take advantage on what was a strength for the Falcons before the season. Secondly Denver should be able to get to Matt Ryan. It's not like offensive line is spectacular and the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes with Von Miller and now they are getting pressure from the tackle position in rookie Derek Wolfe who had 1 of the Broncos 5 sacks on Big Ben a week ago. Ryan will take sacks while Manning will not tonight. I also trust a Jack Del Rio led defense over Mike Nolan any day. For one Mike Nolan is 1-7 in his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator vs. Peyton Manning and teams these days are going up against the defenders just as much as the coordinators. Not only on game day but in the week of preparation leading up to it all.

Manning is one of the best at preparing and when I ask myself who has the better no huddle offense? and Who is the better team at getting or pressuring the QB the answer is the Broncos for both. That's enough incentive to make this a heavy play on the Broncos. Also don't forget the Falcons have struggled to win the big game and for as well as they have played at home they get too much credit from oddsmakers as they are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Don't fall into the trap here tonight Matt Ryan will be pressured and Manning will stay clean and come up with a flawless effort against a Falcons defense that does not do much for me.

Cubs -110 4* MLB POD
The Pirates have fallen into the tank and pretty quickly. The Cubs on the other hand have played really well of late winners of 7 of 9 while the Pirates have lost 8 of 9. There is clearly no pressure on the Cubs and the Pirates collectively are just playing awful baseball right now.

Kevin Correia has struggled vs. some of the Cubs hitters as Castro/Barney/Dejesus are a combined 17-43 against him and right now all three are batting over .300 in their last 7 days. The Cubs are scoring 6.22 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP and are 11-4 in their last 15 as a home favorites while the Pirates are 33-71 in their last 104 road games vs. a LH starter whom they face on Monday. Travis Wood has good stats as the Pirates have a .617 OPS and a .195 average in 77 AB against including McCutchen who is only 1-10.

[b]Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
I love the Rams with a healthy Sam Bradford this is a different team. We seem to be getting tons of value in this spot with all the public loving RG III after his performance and win in New Orleans. Don't forget how much of a mess that New Orleans team was and if you take out the big plays the Redskins were not that great as the Saints even held them in check on third downs. The Rams have one of the better pass defenses because they get to the QB and I think that should result in some more turnovers as they forced Mathew Stafford into a few of them a week ago. Despite the lack of offense in week 1 look for Bradford and co to open it up a little more now that they are back at home.. Bradford did complete 68% of his passes in week 1 and Washington was 17th in 3rd down defense on the road. I think the Rams should win this game.

Notre Dame +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
9 of the last 12 match ups between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less and I think this game will be no different. First of all the Big Ten's rep is taking major hits as they went 0-3 against the PAC 12 last week and has not really come up with many signature wins. Notre Dame is under rated here despite their lackluster performance against an under rated Purdue team. That was a tough game for Notre Dame after playing in Dublin the week before and so far this team looks better than a year ago as they are avoiding the big mistakes and forcing turnovers.

Michigan State on the other hand will have their hands full in my opinion as the Irish have a balanced attack and this will be the first balanced attack Michigan State has faced as the Irish also get a fresh Cierre Wood back. Michigan State can run the ball too and they are getting a lot of credit behind Leveon Bell - but Bell had just 29 yards a year ago on 23 carries and Michigan State was dominated despite having Kirk Cousins and other veteran players. Now they'll start QB Andrew Maxwell against an even better defense. Maxwell struggled against a Boise State group that had 9 new starters. Notre Dame is getting a pass rush and is led by one of the best LB in the country that will shut down this rushing game and put the game in the hands of Andrew Maxwell who threw 3 interceptions at home against Boise State. Notre Dame has 6 takeaways and 7 sacks through the first 2 games and have a rising star in sophomore Stephon Tuitt.

Michigan State's defense is supposed to be great with the elite running backs, but Notre Dame scored 31 points on them in back to back years and the DL has registered just 1 sack and 7 tackles for loss. Notre Dame's first team offense is among the best in the country in converting on third down's with 18-26. Golson at QB is a wild card as he's proving he can throw the ball. Maxwell showed he can do it against Central Mich, but the Chippewas do not have a good pass defense. Meanwhile Notre Dame has a pass rush and their secondary is more athletic than in years past and will create turnovers on Saturday. As long as Notre Dame does not have a disaster day turning the ball over I think they'll win this game.

Yankees -103 4* MLB POD
The Yankees are getting good value here even though Ivan Nova comes off the disable list he seems to be 100% and over his last 4 starts vs. the Rays he's got a 1.88 ERA while the Yankees are #1 in OPS vs. RHP and during day games the Rays are 26th in OPS vs. RHP and 20th during day games. The Yankees will face a familiar face in James Shields who is in hte top 25 in HR allowed this year and he's allowed 19 against the Yankees hitters in his career. He's also on extra rest following a complete game. In both of his road starts this year at Yankee Stadium he came off 5 days rest and it didn't help as he allowed 8 ER in 11 innings. Shields is red hot right now and you would think the Rays would -130 or so with Shields on the mound and Nova coming off the disable list, but his splits do not favor the match up with the Yankees. As left handed hitters dominate with 17 HR this year and he's also given up 13 HR on the road in less innings than what he's done at home. Well the Yankees are at home and will have a ton of lefties in the line up. Shields is also in the top 20 in HR/FB ratio with a 13.2% ratio... The Yankees are a fly ball hitting team and this is the match up they want and I think they'll win.

UNLV +8.5 3.3* PLAY
UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight.

UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points.

Packers -4 buy 1/2 -120 5** NFL POD
There is a huge misconception here that the Bears offense is going to be elite now just because of Brandon Marshall. Lets slow down they played the Colts at home last week and now they go on the road into a challenging environment against one of the best teams coming off a loss and hungry for a win. The Bears offense on the road last year only eclipsed 21 points twice in 8 road games last year. They will have to do that against the Packers to cover this spread and I don't see dramatic improvement for them to do it despite putting up 41 points at home.. Don't forget Cutlers first 5 drop backs against the Colts resulted in 3 sacks, interception, and an incomplete pass. Of course then things got easy, but against the Packers on the road he's going to have an even tougher time.

The Packers actually have better offensive numbers and they played a much better defense in the 49ers. Packers were able to get by last year and go 15-1 with the worst defense in the league, but dont' forget their first 6 picks were on defense. This group will improve throughout the season and they didn't play terribly against the 49ers holding them to 22% conversions on third down. I mention that because the Bears only converted 33% against the Colts and were ranked 27th on third down last year. I don't see where this team got so much better that that's going to change dramatically. On the flip side the Packers were 3rd last year 48.5% on third down and Aaron Rodgers was effective again vs. the leagues best defense converting 46% on third down. I think playing a contending team in the Bears allowed the Packers to be better prepared this week. As that game went on Rodgers became more and more comfortable. Look for Jermichael Finley to have a huge game as he caught 4 of Rodgers 8 TD passes against the Bears a year ago. I'm not fooled by last week so be confident laying the points tonight.

Phillies -140 4* MLB POD
The Phillies are already playing like it's October and I like their chances again here tonight. They have won 15 of 19 and they face Lucas Harrell who has pitched well at home, but the way the Phillies are hitting and playing he's going to have a tough time. First of all the Phillies will start it with 4 straight LH batters and that's going to be a challenge for RHP Lucas Harrell. Harrell also relies on the ground ball as he's third in the league in GB%. Actually the two guys ahead of him are Jake Westbrook and Trevor Cahill who have similar stats across the board. The Phillies are 4-1 in those 5 games they have faced the top 3 in GB%. Westbrook/Cahill have combined for a 5.10 ERA and they were even worse when the Phillies were the visiting team. I expect the Phillies to continue to pitch well out of the bullpen and for the Astros to continue being one of the leagues worst teams.

Yankees -150 5.5* MLB POD Max play tonight on the Yankees as they have a major advantage in their line up going up against Aaron Cook. The Yankees will put 7 left handed hitters in the line up and all have had success against Aaron Cook as they are a combined 20-47 for a .425 average and 3 HR. Cook in 2 career starts has allowed more than 2 runners on base per inning vs. the Yankees and has a 10.24 ERA. Cook also has struggled at home with a 5.15 ERA, but he's struggled vs. lefties who have a .315 average and an .823 OPS. The Red Sox did not look dead last night with a walk off win, but I think they will have a nice hang over today as the Yankees will dominate behind David Phelps who is striking out more than 9 guys per 9 and he's got great stats against the Red Sox key players - Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Ross are a combined 2-15. Phelps is set up to pitch well as he is on 5 days rest and should be able to hand the game over to an effective bullpen.

Cardinals -124 3* LNF Bonus
This team has been struggling, but this is the game they come out of it. They should have runners on base all game long with Edinson Volquez's inability to throw strikes. They have good numbers in 79 AB they have a 1.006 OPS with a .436 OBP vs. Volquez. Meanwhile we get great value because of Wainwright's struggles too, but against the Padres he's dominated in 64 AB the line up has .462 OPS against and Wainwright in 4 career starts posts a 3-1 record and a 0.58 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. The Padres have been scoring runs, but they haven't faced a dominating RHP in a while. Actually since Matt Cain back on August 17th when they lost 1-10. This team struggles more vs. RHP than lefties especially at home so expect the Cardinals to dominate tonight!

Twins -129 4.5* MLB POD
Both of these lines are coming down to our advantage and I'm thinking we have great value.

The Twins will look to win 4 straight and continue their dominance over the Royals who are 7-20 in their last 27 @ Twins. Minnesota is also 41-19 in the last 60 meetings and will start their ace Scott Diamond who is extremely hard to score on because he never walks guys and gets a ton of ground balls. Diamond does not strike a lot of guys out but a 1.45 BB/9 and 56% ground ball ratio will keep you from giving up a lot of runs. There are a few guys that the Royals have faced like him. When you look at Tommy Milone he's up there in terms of BB/9 and Milone combined for 15 IP giving up just 2 ER to the Royals. More notably is Rick Porcello who is a righty and is closer to Diamond's stats. Porcello pitched 13 IP gave up 5 ER. But Diamond is a lefty and the Royals were not nearly as good vs. lefties this year ranking 20th in OPS and are only scoring 3.95 runs per 9 on the road while the Twins are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.

They get Will Smith who if you ask me shouldn't be pitching. IN two starts vs. the Twins he's struggled giving up 17 hits and 10 ER along with 4BB's in 10.2 IP for an 8.44 ERA. The Twins have an OPS over 1.000 against Smith who hasn't started since September 1st. Smith carries a 4.97 ERA on the road with a 1.47 WHIP. He is nothing special looking at his stats with less than 6 K/9, over 3BB/9 AND A 43.7% GB rate with 13% HR/FB. The closest match is Jason Vargas and Ubaldo Jimenez who both struggled in Minnesota this year each gave up more than 5 ER. The Twins have been giving us good value for a long time now and I'll continue to back them especially with Diamond on the mound. It also doesn't hurt that he's getting 7.5 runs of support during his starts this year, the best in the majors!

Raiders pk 4.4* NFL POD; 3TEAM 10PT TEASER - Raiders +10, Ravens +3, OAK/SD O37 2.2*
First of all the oddsmakers are always really sharp on the lines on Mondays which is why you'll see me lay a bunch of teasers out there much like I did last year. I like the Ravens in the spot at home and the over in the OAK/SD game to go along with our POD on the Raiders.

I love the Raiders here this is a team that's still in a much better spot than the Chargers are. The Chargers could not score a TD on the road in the preseason and Phillip Rivers did not look any better than his 20 interceptions last year as he had 1 TD and 4 interceptions this pre season. Pre season means nothing but you would have like to have seen something more from Rivers. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a 7-4 season before dropping 4 of 5 to finish the season including their week 17 home game against the Chargers that cost them the division.

The Raiders had won 3 straight over the Chargers before that game and I think they'll win this game. Mainly because Carson Palmer is now familiar with his receivers and the offense and Darren McFadden looks like he's 100%. At least the Raiders have a balanced offense. The Chargers are going to have to pass a lot in this game which could mean big issues and turnovers considering they'll likely be without LT Jared Gaither and two of their other starting OL's are banged up, but probable. Ryan Mathews is also doubtful and their RB depth is suspect. I think the Chargers will put up points because of the passing but it will lead to the Raiders tiring out the Chargers defense. The Chargers were last in the league in 3rd down defense a year ago and 20th vs. the run. Look for Darren McFadden to have a huge game as the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. the AFC West.

Reds -166 4* MLB POD
Not a ton of value out there, but its hard to ignore the Reds success vs. LHP over the last few years. They are 22-8 in their last 30 overall vs. LH starter and their offense hasn't faced one in a while so this could be what they need to break out of their little slump. 2-4 hitters are a combined 36-106 off Wandy Rodriguez and the Pirates look dead after getting swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Not a lot of value in the line, but I believe Matt Latos success and the Reds bullpen should carry them through with a relatively easy win. Latos has held Pittsburgh hitters to a .478 OPS in 80 AB.

Tampa Bucs +3 -120 5.5* POD
buy the point... But I do not think you'll need it. All this hype on Cam Newton and now he's a sophomore and he's been around the league once. Ask Josh Freeman how his sophomore campaign went? Either way everyone is in love with this kid for good reason, but he's getting too much credit because the Panthers have far more issues than the Bucs who look to rebound after losing 10 games in a row to close out the year last year. Their run defense will be improved with rookie LB Lavonte David and strong safety Mark Baron, but don't underestimate Greg Schiano's pedigree for the defense side of the ball as I believe they will improve big time against the run and this is the game they'll showcase that today. It's not like Carolina's defense is any better as they were 26th in RZ TD%, and 26th in 3rd down defense. While the Bucs weren't much better they added some talent on this side of the ball and the offense will be better making the defense better.

On offense the Bucs made big changes bringing in G Carl Nicks to help pass protect they drafted Doug Martin who can be a star in this league and adds another dimension to the offense that Lagarette Blount just didn't. Don't forget Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark giving Josh Freeman the tools and no excuses but to bounce back. Freeman had 25 TD and 6 interceptions in his first year and it was obvious last year he thought the NFL was just that easy, but a 16/22interception campaign motivated him this off season and I think we will see more of the old Josh Freeman who is just as good if not better than Cam Newton. Newton may not have a sophomore slump like he did last year but the NFL is about to get more difficult for him. I don't see him having as much as success and I see the Bucs being better today.

4.5* MLB POD

Georgia -2 4.4* NCAAF POD
Welcome to the SEC Missouri and DT Sheldon Richardson thank you for running your mouth. This is not old man football this is the best brand of football responsible for the last 6 national championships type of football.

With all of that said Missouri is about to step up to the big leagues and I have many doubts they are capable against one of the favorites in the SEC in Georgia. For one Missouri will have issues considering they'll start 4 new offensive linemen on the interior and while two tackles return they have a tendency to get beat on inside moves and it just so happens that Georgia is loaded along their front 7, 3-4 defensive scheme. That's bad news for Missouri's star offensive player James Franklin who is more of a runner than he is a passer. Franklin loves to throw off his back foot and is prone to making mistakes and he is the majority of their offense especially after the loss of Egnew, Kemp and Josey as well as 4 offensive linemen. The offense was 11th on 3rd down conversions in the Big 12 last year and I don't see it improving despite the size on the outside that this team has especially in the SEC. A year ago they were converting less than 40% of their third down attempts. That's partially due to them running the ball or passing to the RB 67% of the time on 1st down. That normally created a 2nd and 7 or longer where they ran again 63% of the time. That's not going to get them anywhere against Georgia's front 7. To me this game will quickly turn into a defensive game and that will quite the crowd quickly and give Georgia a major advantage.

Georgia returns their star QB in Aaron Murray after he threw 35 TD's a year ago and did not miss a beat without WR A.J. Green. Although Missouri has the talent to beat SEC teams I just don't think this will be their day as Georgia will have the field position in their favor all day. Led by receiver Tavarres King I believe the group of speedy receivers will be able to take advantage of a suspect secondary.

2* BONUS

Cardinals -132 4.5* MLB POD
Yovani Gallardo to me is an over rated pitcher and the Brewers are 1-10 when he pitches and they play the Cardinals. They are also 6-20 in his last 26 starts as an under dog which has not happened much this year that's why he's having a good year. That's because he has just 4 starts vs. a team with an OPS in the top 10 vs. RHP. 2 of them were against the Cardinals in which he got rocked twice allowing 14 ER in 5.2 IP. Take his other 24 starts and the average opponent's OPS vs. RHP has a rank of 19.7 and the 4 starts vs. the Reds brings that down a bit. Collectively the Cardinals have a .978 OPS against Gallardo who will also be one 4 days rest 1 day less than Kyle Lohse who has dominated the Brewers this year. Beltran, Holliday, Freese and Molina who are all in the line up are 10-14 with 5 BB's this year against Gallardo and all of them have hit a home run.

Lohse is the main reason the Cardinals are where they are and I don't see it changing he's on 5 days rest where he has a 2.40 ERA this year pitching on 5 days rest or more in 7 home starts all but 1 was a quality start. The Brewers have a road win % of less than .400 and the Cardinals are 40-14 in their last 54 home games when they play a bad road team. Lohse will also have the ability to face 7 of 9 righties who he has owned this year as they have posted just a .598 OPS against him. He won't have to up against Aramis Ramirez who won't be in the line up which is another plus. Overall Lohse has a 2.25 ERA on the year and the Brewers were slowed down by Josh Johnson yesterday to end their hot streak. I still think we are getting a nice number here considering how much better the Cardinals are. As they are scoring more than 1.14 runs per 9 at home than the Brewers on the road and we talked about the starting pitching advantage, but the Cardinals also enjoy a better bullpen. Brewers have a 5.06 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games combined.

Utah St +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* NCAAF POD
Utah vs. Utah State , both teams will be going to a bowl game this year if you ask me, but this game means everything to Utah State as the Aggies would love to take down their in state rival and bigger brother Utah. This is a team that nearly shocked Auburn on the road early last year losing 42-38 so they have plenty of ability to take down Utah tonight as Gary Anderson is one of the better unknown head coaches around. Anderson's defense should pick up where they left off as #1 in the WAC last year despite losing some players they are tackling machines led by a strong secondary that will keep this game close. IT also helps that Anderson was the DC at Utah for many years and is very familiar with Utah.

Utah State offensively will be solid behind returner at QB Chuckie Keeton and they are led by an offensive line that was solid last year and returns their star C in Tyler Larsen who should be able to neutralize Utah's star defensive line men in Lotolelei. Utah State had an efficient passing game with 64% completions and 23 TD while throwing just 6 interceptions and the offensive linemen know how to block and zone block well. That will make things easier for the runners in Joe Hill and Kerwyn Williams. Utah on the other hand in their opener did struggle a little and missed several big plays that once again won't be there tonight. On one possession it took them 21 plays to score on an FCS school. This is a team that was 106th in 3rd down conversions 33.95% last year while Utah State was 9th at 48.86% and Utah State's defense was even better holding opponents to 35% conversions on third down. I think they can have the same type of success especially since Utah has to replace two all conference tackles. Utah has plenty of talent at OL and size, but this is the perfect time for the Aggies to pull an upset.

Pittsburgh +5 3.3* play
Much of the public is hammering away at Cincinnati especially considering Pittsburgh lost to an FCS foe last week at Youngstown State. For one Youngstown caught a break as the Panthers had no depth on defense especially along the defensive line as Paul Chryst sent a message by suspending 6 players a week ago. This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than a year ago and in a good way as they get back to their roots of running and setting up the pass. Cinci has their own issues as they lost so many stars on offense and defense and have 60 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. The quick turn around for Pitt is a good thing in this case after losing to an FCS foe and having revenge for last years meeting with Cinci. Pitt also got a warm up against a spread offense that should only benefit them tonight. Paul Chryst was the OC for Wisconsin the last 6 years so he was a perfect fit for a Pitt team that perennially would run the ball and they will be running behind a more balanced offense and an offensive line that

NYG/DAL Over 45 4.4* NFL POD; Cowboys +10/Over39 2.2* teaser
I lean towards the Cowboys in this game for one reason, a balanced attack and an improved secondary with Carr/Claiborne. However, it's the over I'm thinking will be more likely with both QB's due to throw the ball 30+ times. In both games last year the two QB's eclipsed 70+ throws combined. That's mainly due to their inabilities to run and that should be true for tonight as well. For the Giants David Wilson is a nice upgrade, but the Cowboys were able to hold a lot of opponents under 4 yards per carry last year as they were 7th vs. the run. I see Eli opening things up and throwing the ball 40+ times like he did so often late last year. Watch out for his new TE, and ex Cowboy Bennett to have a big game.

Cowboys offense is a little sketchier with the inability to protect Romo, but they still scored 34 points against the Giants when they were home. They should have a better protection scheme in place to avoid being sacked 6 times and Tony Romo is still one of the better QB's in terms of avoiding sacks and moving in the pocket and finding open receivers. Romo has more of a balanced running game and they proved they can run the ball against the Giants with a healthy Demarco Murray they should be able to protect Romo much more than they did in the last meeting. If he does not have Jason Witten it won't be a huge loss he had just 3 receptions in the Cowboys 34-37 loss anyway. Romo will get Miles Austin and Dez Bryant involved early in a depleted Giants secondary while the running game keeps the Giants ferocious defensive line honest.

Orioles +106 4** MLB POD
The Orioles are just locked in right now and a good portion of their line up has good stats against Brandon Morrow who gets the nod for the Jays on 4 days rest after 102 pitches his last time out. Morrow in his last 3 vs. the Orioles at home has given up 11 ER in just 16.2 IP and he's had plenty of starts against them in his career where he didn't get to the 7th inning. This is just his third start cominb back from the DL and I don't know how much length the Jays will get out of him before they turn it over to a bullpen that has an ERA 2.2 higher at home than the Orioles have on the road.

The Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez is pitching beautifully and has a 2.51 ERA away and a 0.87 ERA in 10+ innings on turf this year. The Jays haven't really seen him so it will be a major challenge for a team that has a .581 OPS over the last 7 days. Morrow has the capability of being dominant but the Orioles bats are just too hot right now and they have plenty of LH hitters to get good looks.

Virginia Tech/ Georgia Tech U47.5 Georgia Tech brings it's triple option to Lane Stadium in what is a very very important game in the ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech returns nearly all of their starters on defense and for the first time Bud Foster's group will have ample time preparing for the triple option and he has the players to shut it down. The Hokies return their entire front 7 led by James Gayle on the front 4 and All-American Bruce Taylor at linebacker. The front 7 are ridiculously fast off the ball and Georgia Tech does not have that WR that can keep a defense honest this year with Stephen Hill off playing in the NFL. I'm sure the Yellow Jackets will develop one, but in the first game of the season in a very important game I expect both teams to come out conservative especially the Hokies on offense. Virginia Tech has Logan Thomas at QB and the guy is a beast with NFL measurables, but there are a lot of questions at RB, along the offensive line and at WR. Expect a lot of run and tuck it from Thomas and a low scoring game because of that. The Hokies are also Under the total in 15 of their last 21 games.

White Sox -156 4* MLB POD I love the Sox here as they return off an awful road trip. They have been great at home winning 21 of their last 26 games and are 22-7 in their last 29 meetings with the Twins. This will be a must win type of series and they needed to play a team they have had a lot of success against. The White Sox will face Deduno for hte first time and he's just a different pitcher on the road with a 4.68 ERA and a .292 opponents average. He has major control issues with 5.74 BB/9 so the White Sox are going to get plenty of chances for good pitches to hit. Deduno only walked 1 guy in his last two starts, as he is being more aggressive as he put it, but being aggressive vs. an aggressive team like the White Sox will give him major issues. I have a feeling he will be off as this is just his 4th road start on only 4 days rest. He's got a 6.60 ERA in the previous 3 starts and the White Sox are scoring 5.65 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home while the Twins are only scoring 3.34 vs. LHP on the road. The White Sox have also had a lot of success vs. RH starters who walk a lot of guys. They beat Jiminez twice, Yu Darvish and took 2 of 3 from Justin Masterson forcing the trio of high walk per 9 guys to post a 6.68 ERA.

Tigers -160 4* MLB POD
For the rest of the season I will fade the young lefties of the White Sox in Chris Sale and Carlos Quintana it's just too much to ask of them to pitch this much and this is another situation where we have a major advantage with Verlander going for the Tigers who is 11-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the White Sox. He also does not have to face the big bat of Adam Dunn who will be sitting out and he has dominated tonight's clean up hitter Paul Konerko who is just 8-52 against him. Sale has already started to struggle particularly in his road starts allowing 18 runs over his last 4 starts on the road over 24 innings pitched. Look for him to struggle yet again tonight as he did last time in Detroit giving up 5 ER in 7 innings. Verlander is more experienced to pitch on 4 days rest and he loves pitching in his home ball park where he has a 1.75 ERA this year.

Auburn +3 -105 5* NCAAF POD
This game will be on a neutral field in Atlanta and the under rated Auburn team in my opinion will win it. All this Tigers team needs to do for motivation is check out the youtube clip of Dabo Swinney fired up after they beat Auburn at home 38-24 and that was after they trailed 21-7. Look for Auburn to have a lot of revenge on their mind in a game that won't be anything like last year and I'll tell you why.

Before I get into Auburn note that they were not terrible last year going 8-5 losing 4 on the road to very good teams Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and then they lost one home game against Alabama the National Champion. Meanwhile Clemson ended their 2011 campaign losing 3 of 4 including a blowout in their bowl game.

Last year it was all about Tajh Boyd as he was 30-42 for 386 yards 4TD 0 INT as he was 14-18 on third down conversions. It's hard to think Clemson will be able to duplicate that considering their offensive line is experience a complete overhaul with 3 newbies as well they have lost 3 starters on the defensive line. To make matters worse Sammy Watkins who had 10 rec 155 yards in that game is suspended. There is just no way Boyd can repeat the success he had last year with 3 new starters on the offensive line and Auburn has a pair of ends that can be dominating in Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford to go along with 7 other starters that return on the defense.

Offensively Auburn will start Kiehl Frazier, but they should be able to run in this game considering how vulnerable Clemson is on the defensive line. They ran for 237 yards last year on 6.2 ypc look for that to happen again, but with new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffer there will clearly be more balance and that will benefit maybe one of the best TE in the nation in PHillip Lutzenkirchen. I think this line is derived off the public's perception of Auburn and Clemson. Last year Clemson lost on the road at South Carolina 13-34 while Auburn actually won on the road. That one game was a bad game and I'm sure Auburn has been motivated all summer long to take revenge on Clemson who is now 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral fields while Auburn is 5-1 ATS.

NC STATE +3 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
16 starters return from the Wolfback team that won 6 of their final 8 games including 3 in a row against Louisville, Clemson, and Maryland to close the year out. This is the year Tom O'Brien has been building for and there is real potential to get to 10 starters. They have 4 starters returning on an offensive line and a NFL prospect in 6-6 QB Mike Glennon who completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,054 yards, 31 TD's and 12 interceptions last year. He'll face off against Tennessee team that is also returning 4 starters and features a 6-6 QB in Tyler Bray, but Glennon has proved himself more and my confidence is with him and the offense that surrounds him as they have more dpeth at running back with James Washington and Mustafa Greene now returning from an injury. More importantly TN brings in a new coaching staff on defense that is making some changes that could hurt them early in the season.

On the other side of the ball TN breaks in a new starter at the most important position LT in a sophomore who will make his first start. IT definitely hurts them that they also lost Da'Rick Rogers at WR due to a suspension and now Justin Hunter who is returning from an ACL injury goes up against an All-American CB David Amerson who had 13 interceptions himself last year. NC State may be more vulnerable up front, but TN has yet to proven they can run the ball on anyone averaging just 90 yards a game last year. It's likely Bray and the offense will look to pass, but awaiting them will be Amerson and the rest of the ball hawking secondary that surrounds him which are 3 seniors! Tennesse is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC while NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Tennessee should be improved but this is just a challenging game on a neutral field in the season opener that will make them look bad.

Vanderbilt +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
Vanderbilt lost 21-3 on the road last year against South Carolina, but a lot has changed since. So that you too can take Vandy seriously I'll give you some highlights from last year - they nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas at home last year losing by a combined 8 points. They were ranked 18th in yards allowed and they return 8 starters on offense with plenty of depth behind them and 7 starters on defense with an experienced secondary. IN that game they lost 21-3 last year they were on the road, Jordan Rodgers was not yet the starter and the offensive line was not healthy. For instance their best OL Wesley Johnson is back at his best position LT because of the health and depth of the line.

Speaking of Vanderbilts offense. They are a run first unit with Rodgers being called a dual threat QB as he had 420 yards rushing last year but the real talent is senior Zac Stacy who had 1,193 yards last year and 5.9 ypc and he's backed up by SEC freshmen of the year Warren Newman. Now South Carolina has a great defensive line when it comes to rushing the QB as they have two 1st round NFL picks in Clowney and Taylor at the end position but they were 45th vs. the run a year ago. Their 2nd rank pass defense will be vulnerable too with 3 starters gone in the secondary and they are also without their best corner Akeem Auguste who is out with a leg. This should do one of two things. Calm the agressiveness that DC Lorenzo Ward likes to come with or lead to big plays against an inexperienced secondary.

If you don't believe it's possible, Vanderbilt was actually #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards a year ago. So enough about Vandy's offense what about Marcus Lattimore shouldn't he be able to run all over a Vanderbilt team? He had just 77 yards last year in the game and I'm still not sold on how much he trusts his leg. Either way Vanderbilt can sell out against the run because they have an experienced secondary. I also do not think they'll have to worry about the passing game of South Carolina and this is a plus because it will also slow the game down. Connor Shaw has talent, but he also has a very young inexperienced offensive line that replaces 3 starters and he also lost Alshon Jeffrey to throw to. The receivers have plenty of speed but it's going to take a bit to get that chemistry back.

Not only will Vanderbilt be sold out and pumped for the first game but they hold a considerable advantage on special teams. They are one of the best in the nation in defending kickoffs and punts and I feel they'll dominate field position making it very difficult for a South Carolina team that was ranked 95th in passing last year and will be looking to do a lot of damage on the ground. It's hard to grind out drives in those situations.

Jays -150 4.5* MLB POD Carlos Villanueva won

Rangers -122 4.5* MLB POD
I like the Rangers in this spot although they've struggled against scheduled starter James Shields during the regular season in his last two outings (1 post season) he went just 11 innings gave up 19 hits and 11 ER in two starts in Texas. Shields has been pitching great lately, but he faces a Rangers team that's red hot again and is already scoring over 6 runs per 9 vs. RHP , 6.82 over their last 10 due to Adrian Beltre's .520 average and 6 HR over the last 6 games. Rangers have shown they are a streaky team and right now they are hot and are 48-15 in their last 63 following a game where they scored 5 runs or more. They are also 54-23 in their last 77 home games vs. RH starter and Shields is on extra rest which is a bad thing.

Shields has just 2 quality starts on extra rest over 9 total starts. In those other 7 starts he posts a 7.61 ERA. He's coming into this start on extra rest and I'm confident that should throw him off a bit against the red hot Rangers. On the flip side Yu Darvis comes back completely fresh. He's been really streaky, but the Rays have never seen him and I think he matches up well against them.

White Sox -154 5* MLB POD
The White Sox will go for the sweep and they have their stars our there to go up against the veteran Millwood and to me it's a mismatch. Milwood has allowed a .393 average in 112 AB to the White Sox line up. Dunn is 9-22 with 6 HR. Wise is 3-5, Youkilis is 7-15, Konerko is 11-30, Rios is 9-24, it just doesn't stop and Millwood has struggled with a 7.00 ERA over his last 7 road starts. The White Sox are ranked 8th in OPS during day games while the Mariners are 30th with a .608 OPS during day games when they post a 18-23 record, The Sox are 25-17 and are in the middle of a pennant race.

They'll turn to Gavin Floyd who is on 5 days rest with some revenge on the Mariners who got 5 ER off his last home start, but in his previous 5 starts vs. the Mariners who are 30th in the league VS. RHP in OPS they hit 4 HR off him. That's a rare thing for the Mariners and I don't think it gets repeated especially since he's regularly dominated this team that collectively has just 9 hits in 59 AB for a .152 average. Floyd also has 8 quality starts over 12 total starts on 5 days rest. In those 8 starts he posts a 0.99 ERA so I expect him to dominate today.

Orioles -106 4* MLB POD
This game will come down to the bullpens with Brandon Morrow coming off the DL for his first start in over a month he's going to be limited to 85 pitches. The Orioles have 18 HR in 10 games against the Jays this year and there is bound to be more today as they have rocked Morrow at time with 8 HR in just 127 career AB. Hardy,Jones, and Markakis are a combined 16-47 and Chris Davis who is just 2-9 with a HR also has 3 BB's for .417 OBP and he's been red hot with a .350 average and 5 HR over the last 7 days. The Jays meanwhile have been in a hitting slump and even though they got Jose Bautista back last night I think it could be a while. Baltimore's pen should pick up for spot starter Steve Johnson who is too much of an unknown for Toronto to really get a grasp on him the way they've been struggling. It's not like they are hitting what they are seeing and now they have to face a pitcher they've never faced before on the road where they struggle anyway. To put things in perspective the Blue Jays are dead last with a .603 OPS this month. They are 20th on the season in OPS on the road.

Red Sox -172 5* MLB POD; RL +110 2* BONUS
This is the perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to end their losing streak with David Ortiz back in the line up as well as Bruce Chen coming to town who has a 11.45 ERA over his last three starts at Fenway. The Red Sox are hot with the bats too scoring 7.06 runs per 9 at home this year vs. LHP and 6.51 in their last 10. While the Royals are only scoring 3.84 runs per 9 on the road and are hitting .243 scoring 1.88 runs per 9 in their last 10 vs. LHP.

John Lester takes the mound looking for another quality start and I think he's finally turned it around. He's 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA vs. the Royals in his career and he's on extra rest where he's performed well of late pitching to a 3.58 ERA over his last 5 starts on 5 days rest. The Royals line up has a .216 average with 0 HR (13-60) against him tonight while the Red Sox have been great against Chen with a .310 average and 4 HR (18-58). Red Sox are 24-10 in their last 34 home meetings with the Royals and the Royals are 22-56 in their last 78 road games vs. a LH starter. This is a big game for the Sox if they want to get back into the playoff talks this is the turning point with Ortiz coming back.

Rays -135 5* MLB POD
We have been struggling a bit lately with some close losses, but we are confident that we will be turning this around before the football season and it starts with the Rays on Thursday night.

Not only are the Rays just red hot right now, but they get an A's team that is flying across the country to play Thursday without a day off. They are also sending a pitcher to the mound in Tyson Ross who has major control issues with 4.33 BB/9. It just so happens the Rays are #1 right now in BB's and in 22 AB they have a 1.247 OPS against him. On the flip side Alex Cobb makes the start and he already has a 7 inning 1 ER performance vs. the A's who also like to get on base via the walk, but Cobb is only walking 2.52 guys per 9. Cobb has a better chance of pitching a quality game for his team as he has a 3.64 xFIP. I like the fact that he gets a lot of ground balls and he's supported by the Rays bullpen which has an ERA under 1 over their last 10 games and 2.18 at home on the year. The Rays as a team are hitting much better as they are 9th in the month of August with a .751 OPS. Oakland is 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 0-7 with Ross on the mound vs. a winning team.

4.5* MLB POD

[b]Yankees -108 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I love the Yankees in this spot nearly all of their hitters have had major success against Gavin Floyd who posts a 4.48 ERA at home and has a WHIP over 1.30 on the year. The Yankees are 28-12 vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30 in their last 40. Also in 209 career AB, Yankee hitters have 13 HR and a .905 OPS. Floyd has struggled vs. LH batters and the Yankees are full of them. lefties have a .925 OPS against Floyd compared with a .639 vs. righties. ON the flip side Freddy Garcia continues to pitch under the radar and has held the White Sox hitters in check - Youkilis, Dunn, and AJ P are a combined 7-53. IF he can pitch around Konerko he'll be in line for another quality start.

Giants -129 5* MLB POD
The Giants have not skipped a beat since Cabrera was suspended scoring 18 runs in their last 2 games and that's just too much for the Padres to keep up with especially going up against Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong is on 5 days rest in this match up and he's had a quality start in all 9 starts this year when he's on extra rest where he has posted a 2.07 ERA and went 7 innings in 7 of those starts. He also has a 2.51 ERA during day starts and he pitched a 7 inning 1 ER game vs. the Padres already this year. He'll face them in San Diego where the Padres are hitting just .217 and scoring 3.05 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Over their last 10 they are even worst with a .180 average and a 2.39 runs per 9.

Ont he flip side the Giants bats are working right now and on the road they are scoring 5.17 runs per 9 vs. LHP and 6.62 overall in their last 10. They'll face Clayton Richard who they have hit hard all year long as Richard posts a 7.64 ERA in 3 starts with a 1.75 WHIP. Richard faces a Giants team who in 161 AB against him post a .917 OPS. Richard has been good at home, but not good enough and over the last three years he posts an ERA over 5 during day starts. He'll be on just 4 days rest and not as fresh as Vogelsong going up against a hot line up I'll take my chances with the road team.

Angels -138 2.5* play
I believe the Angels are good enough to avoid a 3 game sweep with Zach Greinke on the mound. After all the Rays are 25th in OPS vs. RHP this year and 24th during day games. The Angels have not been shy of scoring runs it's been there bullpen that's screwing up, but Greinke has the talent to go the distance and over his career he's dominated the Rays as in 172 AB the Rays own a .583 OPS. Greinke looked like himself in his last start and that's a sign of things to come. Matt Moore on the other hand has been a different pitcher on 4 days rest posting a 5.12 ERA this year. This is just his 3rd road start on 4 days rest as they've been very careful with the lefty. In his previous 2 road starts he posts a 9.00 ERA in just 11 IP.

Also the Angels have eaten up pitchers with control issues and are giving up a lot of fly balls. Moore stats are in the top 10 in both 4.13 BB/9 and 38.9 %GB. The closest pitcher to those stats are Ubaldo Jiminez who they have scored 11 ER in just 11.2 IP. Overall they have faced 7 pitchers like this and those starters post a 8.41 ERA. I think the Rays are satisfied going home with a 3-1 trip to LA and I think that's what we'll get.

Twins +119 4.5* MLB POD I love the Twins in this spot, first of all they are scoring just 2.81 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home and are 19-41 in their last 60 home games vs. LH starters. Scott Diamond is really up and coming and he's #1 in BB/9. The Mariners are 3-10 vs. LHP in the top 25 in BB/9 as those starters have posted a 2.92 ERA against them. The better the control the better they pitched and Diamond is one of the best at controlling his pitches. He's also on 5 days rest in this one facing a Mariners team that for the year is 28th vs. LHP in OPS and is 30th with a .615 OPS this August. Meanwhile Jason Vargas who has been great at home goes up against the Twins who are 9th with a .766 OPS vs. LHP and are 13th with a .742 in August. The Twins bullpen has a 2.88 ERA over their last 10 games while the Mariners come in at 4.61. I like this match up and the value we get here at +119.

Athletics -122 4.5* MLB POD The A's return home which should be a positive as they are 18-5 in their last 23 when facing a RH starter which they face on Friday night in Zach McCallister. They are also 26-12 at home in their last 38 meetings with the Indians who are in for a treat Friday night with Tommy Milone fresh. Milone took a start off and should be fresh for his home start where he posts a 2.13 ERA. He's a unique young pitcher who is in the top 10 in control (BB/9) among starting pitchers. The Indians are #1 in the league in BB/9 and that's how they win games, but when they face lefties who they struggle against already 25th in OPS on the year and they have control well they are just flat out not very good. They are a combined 0-7 against lefties in the top 25 in BB/9 while those starters have posted a 2.28 ERA. Milone is 10th in BB/9 behind only Scott Diamond who has thrown 23 IP and has allowed only 2 ER in three wins against the Indians this year. Cleveland has also lost 12 of 13 road games and those 12 losses have come on a 4.9 runs per 9 average. Zach McCallister makest he start for the Indians but it's his first on the West coast. If this game is close late the A's will have another major advantage in their bullpen.

[b]Angels +107 4* MLB POD[/b]
I like this match up a lot. David Price has not pitched nearly well on the road posting a .320 average and many Angels hitters have some good numbers off him and over his last 6 starts he posts a 4.37 ERA. The Angels are 3rd with a .833 OPS in August and have back to back victories scoring 17 runs and I think that will continue tomorrow! Dan Haren should be fresh pitching just 63 pitches in his last start. He also ended July with a 6 IP 1 ER performance at home vs. the Rays and over his previous 4 starts posts a 2.60 ERA vs. the Rays. The Angels have struggled in the bullpen but have been better at home with a 2.60 on the season compared to the Rays 3.98 on the road.

[b]Yankees -115 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Freddy Garcia has held the Rangers hitter to a .495 OPS in 135 AB while Feldman has struggled mightily with the Yankees having a combined OPS over .900. Teixera, Cano, Granderson, Ibanez, and Jeter alone are 24-60 with multiple HR's. Granderson has 3 alone in 9 AB and it won't get easy for Feldman as the Yankees are red hot lately vs. RHP they have a .842 OPS in August and are the #1 team vs. RHP in terms of OPS. Feldman has 6.50 ERA on the road this year and he will make just his 4th start on 4 days rest posting a 4.40 ERA in the other 3. Over the last 3 years combined he has a 5.59 ERA on the road.

Cardinals -104 4.5* MLB POD I love the Cardinals in this spot not only do they have good numbers against Ian Kennedy they have eaten up pitchers like him. IN that regards I mean fly ball pitchers. Which is what Ian Kennedy is as he produces just 35% ground balls. The Cardinals have played in 5 games against baseballs lowest ground ball producers. Every single one of them they have been able to score runs including a game against Ian Kennedy where they scored 6 ER off him in 7 innings. Overall in those 5 combined games the starting pitchers have a 9.72 ERA. That includes two starts from Matt Cain who is nearly a mirror image of Kennedy. They both walk 1.86 guys per 9, while Cain is better at striking people out, and giving up less HR's and he's a bit tougher with guys on base. All the Cardinals have done against Cain is score 9 runs over his 11.2 IP this year for a 6.94 ERA. Overall the Cardinal hitters have good numbers too, Beltran/Halladay/Jay/Schumaker are a combined 14-34 with 2HR. Kennedy is on 5 days rest here, but that really hasn't seem to help him this year as he posts a 4.34 ERA on 5 days rest and a 4.00 ERA on the road. He's really only faced one elite hitting team on the road on 5 days rest and that was the Rangers and he gave up 6 ER in 5.2 IP. I don't think the extra rest will benefit him here tonight.