San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 ET | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV

10-Unit Bet on the 49ers minus 2 points and if the money line is less than -130 (As in -125) use the money line.

5-Unit Bet Under 47.5 points.

I cannot prevent you from placing a parlay on these opportunities but would recommend not to as there are plenty of prop bets that add more than enough risk to our Super Bowl portfolio of bets. If you force me (LOL), I would prefer the teaser (Ouch, I cannot even believe I am writing that) where you tease down the 49ers and the tease up the total.

For Live betting consider betting 70% preflop on the 49ers as prescribed above and then look to get 15% more at +1.5 and 15% more at +4.5 points during the first half of action. Of course, you can bet say 80% preflop and then add 10% more at each of these levels and is dependent on how much you like the 49ers to win the game.

As for the Over bet I like betting 2.5 units preflop. If the game starts out terribly slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 2.5 units and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 2.5 units UNDER preflop and then look to add 1.5 units at 50.5 points and 1 more unit at 53.5 points.

Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me.

I am a documented 22-5 ATS in the Super Bowls and that record is not a guarantee that this 10-Unit bet will win this year. My goal is always to see you bet with discipline and the reality that in a one game situation anything can happen. No one has a crystal ball. I do have massive databases and predictive models using machine learning and gaussian probability tools that have done extremely well over the course of a season and a calendar year. My 10-Unit MAX Bets have LOST 32% of the time on a 78-38 record across all sports and more than 4+ years of betting action. Make no mistake, I like the 49ers quite a bit, but it is another individual bet and will not have any impact to my season-to-date profits or my 2024 year-end profits.

The following NFL betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-16 SU record and 33-14-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any team lined between the 3’s.

·      That team is on a three or more-game ASTS losing streak.

·      The opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak.

Note, in the playoffs going back to 2003, the Under is 12-3 for 80% winning bets in a matchup where one of the teams is on a 3-game ATS losing streak and the opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are:

·      Bet the under in game where the total us priced between 42.5 and 49 points.

·      One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread.

·      That team is facing a foe that is coming off an upset road win.

If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets.

The Predictive Model Projections

The market at current pricing of 47.5 point total and the 49ers favored by 1.5 points reflects a 24.5-23 49ers win. In the NFL ranks, the 27-point scoring level is a significant pivot for many of the elite teams. For instance, over the past five seasons, the Dolphins own the best record when scoring 27 or more points producing a 24-7 SU and 26-3-2 ATS mark for 90% winning bets. Over the same period, the 49ers have gone 44-3 SU and 35-10-2 ATS and the Chiefs have gone 49-4 SU and 34-18-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points. The Chiefs ATS win percentage is second-lowest to only the Minnesota Vikings, who are 32-10 SU and 26-15-1 ASTS for 63% winning bets.

The predictive models are calling for the 49ers to score 27 or more points and will gain more total yards and average at least 6.25 yards per play. In past games spanning the past five seasons, the 49ers are 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. The Chiefs are 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS when they have allowed 27 or more points, gained fewer total yards and allowed 6.25 or more yards per play.

Teams that have produced a 14 or lower (better and more efficient) offensive yards per point ratio has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets in the Super Bowl. The forecast is for the 49ers to produce a 13 or lower YPPT ratio. In the super bowl teams that have scored 27 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone on to a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ASTS record good for 73% winning bets.

My expectations are that the 49ers wrinkle in this game and one that will not be surprising to the Chiefs defense is that they will start the game in a spread formation and not the ‘22’ formation. The ‘22’ is a formation where only one WR is set away from the line of scrimmage and with a pair of TE and RB packed in close to the ball. The reason is simply that Purdy will be able to see where the blitz pressure is coming from far easier than in a packed-in-the phone booth ‘22’ set. Eventually, I believe the Chiefs will have to commit one of their two safeties to support the run defense. When you see this happen during the game you can then expect play action and throw to a WR in man coverage and executing a vertical post or crossing route.

The Pizza Money Prop Bets

First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5 point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriot they obviously lost and if you added a plethora of plater props on aardy and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.

Prop Bets

1.    McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128

Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that MaCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets.

2.    Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards.

This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs.

3.    Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards

4.    Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL)

5.    Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards

Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game.

6.    Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts

The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety.

7.    Kyle Juszcyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception

This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage is not a which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszcyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas.

8.    Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170

Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their winner over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet.

It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL that have been around for any stretch of time have posted horrid records in this trailing situation.

Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win while the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three quarters of action.

Most Games When Trailing By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Bill Belichick 19-102 SU | 11-107-3 ATS (9.3%)

2.     Jeff Fisher 12-108 SU | 16-101-3 ATS (14%)

3.     Tom Coughlin 15-94 SU | 17-87-5 ATS (16%)

4.     Andy Reid 20-80 SU | 18-81-1 ATS (18%)

5.     John Fox 11-83 SU | 15-77-2 ATS (16%)

Lowest Win Percentages When Trailing by 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Gruden 0-34 SU | 2-32 ATS (6%)

2.     Spagnuolo 0-29 SU | 4-24-1 ATS (14%)

3.     Mangini 0-29 SU | 5-24 ATS (17%)

4.     Hue Jackson 0-28-1 | 5-24 ATS (17%)

5.     Sparano 0-28 SU | 4-24 ATS (14%)

Most Games When Leading By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Belichick 234-16 SU | 212-30-8 ATS (88%)

2.     Reid 183-21 SU |162-40-2 ATS (80%)

3.     Coughlin 115-14 SU | 106-21-2 ATS (84%)

4.     Shanahan 112-16 SU 95-31-2 ATS (75%)

5.     John Harbaugh 110-17 SU | 94-31-2 ATS (75%)

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers

8-Unit bet on the 49ers minus the 7 points and is valid up 7.5 points.

Consider betting 75% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% on two parts consisting of 15% on the 49ers -4.5 points and 10% more at -1.5 points during the first half of action.

Home teams in the conference championship that failed to cover the spread in their divisional win and had fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The only loss was when the team was on the road. The Green Bay packers traveled to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 8.5-point underdogs and enjoyed a 16-point half time lead. How, the Seahawks stormed back with 22 second-half points (15 of them scored in the fourth quarter) and won 28-22. So, home teams in this role are undefeated and in any round of the playoffs have gone 17-12-1 ATS for 59% and

Supporting this bet on the 49ers is the following algorithm that has gone 25-13 (66%) SU and 25-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home favorites in the playoffs.

·      Facing an opponent that won 5 or more games, but were outgained in the stats.

·      That opponent is coming off a home win.

If in the Conference Championship Game

Ø  11-3 SU | 12-2 86% ATS | 8-6 O-U

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

10-Unit bet on the Chiefs plus 3 or more points.

Consider betting 60% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% on the Chiefs at +6.5 and then 20% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action.

5-Unit Bet OVER 44.5 points.

Consider betting just 40% preflop on the total because the first quarter scoring in these Championship games sees the least amount of points scored. Then if the game does go accoding to plan, you will be able to add 30% more at 41.5 points and 30% more at 39.5 points at some point during the first half of action. The downside is that if the game starts out fast, you are likely to only have 40% bet on the Over preflop, but that also implies that bet will be winning by margin at the half.

CBS Sports noted that Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers was 0-31 SU when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter and last week’s comeback against the Packer’s was the first time he and the 49ers overcame that type of deficit to win a game. However, this type of stat is a bit misleading starting with the fact that all NFL coaches and their teams have had few wins when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth. In 49ers history Mike Nolan went 0-27 and Dennis Erickson went 0-27, for instance. Bill Belichick went 19-102, Jeff Fisher went 12-108, Tom Coughlin went 15-94, and Andy Reid went 20-80 to round out the top-4 coaches records with 100 or more trailing by 5+ entering the fourth quarter.

Speaking of Reid, he is tops on the coaching list with 20 come from behind fourth quarter wins trailing by 5+ points. In case you were wondering Jay Gruden went 0-34 for his career when trailing by 5+ points entering the fourth quarter.

In week 16 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs were priced as 11.5-point favorites and trailed by 20-7 entering the fourth and lost 20-14 to the AFC West Division rival Raiders. Ten of the 20 wins in this situation for coach Reid have occurred with the Chiefs and prior to that with the Eagles. With the Chiefs he is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games, so keep that in mind too if they are trailing entering the fourth.

Since 2019, the Chiefs have played in a league-high 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed 6 or more-point leads at some point during these games. What is remarkable is Reid has won 26 of these 32 games and went 17-9 ATS and 18-8 OVER. So, I do see many lead changes in this AFC Championship game against the Ravens.

Supporting this bet on the Chiefs is the following algorithm that has gone 31-39 SU and 49-21-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

·      Our dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games.

·      The host forced zero turnovers in their previous game.

if the game occurs in the playoffs our dogs have gone 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Although just two games, these dogs have gone 1-1 and 2-0 ATS in the Conference Championship.

            Player Prop bets for Both games today:

1)    Bet Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs -110

2)    Bet Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions +115

3)    Bet Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards -110

4)    Bet Pacheco OVER 15.5 longest rush -105

5)    Bet Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards -115

6)    Bet Goff OVER 2.5 passing TDs +300

7)    Bet George Kittle most receiving yards +550

Analysts will say that Kyle Hamilton will take away Kelce. Maybe. The fact that TEs have done well against this defense bodes well for Kelce. He’s had 71+ yards in each playoff game. The Chiefs will need him if they want to have a chance to score 20+ points.

Tampa Bay vs Detroit

3:00 PM EST | NBC
Ford Field, Detroit

10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season.

Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets.  

If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard.

If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.

Green Bay vs San Francisco

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

8:15 PM EST | FOX
5-Unit bet on the Over 50.5 points and is valid to 51.5 points.

8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points

1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line

Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

4:30 PM EST | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
M&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD

8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points.

The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out.

Consider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead.

This one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime.

On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans.

The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives.

The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands.

Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY
4:30 EST | CBS
8-Unit Best Bet on the Steelers +10 points and is valid at 9.5 points.

Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind.

Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game.

Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond.

The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game.

In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets.

The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

4:30 EST | Fox| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX
10-Unit Bet on the Green Bay Packers +7.5 points and is good at +7 points.

I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys.

I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first.

In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002.

Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action.

Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1.

Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
7:30 PM EST | ESPN
8-Unit bet on Washington plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog, but I do not see this line moving if at all ahead of kickoff.

With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points.

This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference.

Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1.

Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons.

Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes.

From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons.

Buffalo vs Miami

Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL

8:20 ET | NBA
8-Unit bet on the Bills minus the 2.5 points and is valid up to 3.5 points.

The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams facing a winning record host.

·      The road team defeated the host in their previous game.

·      The game occurs in the second half of the regular season.

·      The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host.

·      The total is 48 or more points.

The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010.

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

4:25 ET | FedEx Field, Landover, MD
8-Unit bet on the Commanders +13.5 points and valid if they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team.

The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years.  So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
4:25 EST | FOX
8-Unit bet on the Eagles minus the 4.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying.

Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
4:30 ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+

8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points.

Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action.

Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015.

10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing.

Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas.

Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee.

From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015.

Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Arizona vs Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
1 ET
8-Unit Titan Bet on the Eagles minus 13 points.

My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites  or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does.

I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR.  So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards.

Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons.

From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.

Miami vs Baltimore

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
1:00 ET | CBS
10-Unit bet on the Dolphins +3.5 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game.

Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

Our dog has allowed

Raiders vs Colts

1 ET
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
8-Unit best bet on the Raiders plus the points currently priced as 4-point underdogs.

I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

49ers vs Washington

1:00 ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville

8-Unit bet on the Commanders plus the 14 points

Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons.

In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Mississippi vs Penn State
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Noon, Saturday December 30
10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 5.5 points and is valid to 7 points.

Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action.

Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll.

Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star

The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin.

PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.

Notre Dame vs Oregon State
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
2 ET

8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points

Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014.  

The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019.

Clemson vs Kentucky

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | Noon ET, Friday
8-Unit Bet on Kentucky plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl.

Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are:

The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14.

The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33.

The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013.

The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978.

The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas.

Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky.

Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game.

Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.

Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons.  

NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

Thursday NFL on Prime
8-Unit Bet on the Jets plus the 7 points and is valid down to 5.5 points.

8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points.

Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002.  So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.

I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets.  Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets.

USC vs Louisville

8 ET | Fox | Holiday Bowl
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
8-Unit bet on the Trojans plus the 7 0oints and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season.

The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup.

USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites.

The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers.

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears
4:25 PM EST, Christmas Eve
8-Unit Best Bet on the Cardinals plus the points.

Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990.  

Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and  is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve

10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins.

Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets.

The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season.

The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the  Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs.

[DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid.

Northwestern vs. Utah
68 Ventures Bowl, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
7:30 PM EST, Saturday December 23, 2023
8-Unit bet on Northwestern plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4 points.

Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%).

Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990.

UTSA vs Marshall
Frisco Bowl
9 ET December 19
8-Unit bet on Marshall plus 7.5 points and is valid bet if they remain the dog

UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position.

Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals.  He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense.

From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS.

Dallas vs Buffalo

8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points.

Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining.

The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops.

From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004.

The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets.

Commanders vs Rams
8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the 6.5 points and is good down to 5.5 points. 5-Unit Bet on the Under currently at 50.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.

As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions.

Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017.

Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns

8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points.

 Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.

Green Bay Packers vs NY Giants

10-Unit Bet on the Giants plus the 6-points.

Consider betting this game by placing a 7.5-unit amount preflop at +6 and then look in game and bet the remaining 2.5 units if the Packers score a TD first or score a TD to go up 10-0 or if they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action only.

Betting on teams that are facing a foe that has won their last three games priced as a dog has produced a highly profitable 26-20 SU (57%) and 28-18 ATS for 61% winning bets since 1990. If our team is playing at home they improve modestly to 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS for 63% including a 17-6-1 Under mark for 74% winning bets. If our team is the dog or priced at pick-em they have gone to produce a highly profitable 13-11 SU mark and 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 9 on out, they soar to an incredible 8-7 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets.

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are slow starting ones being outscored by 5 or more PPG in the first half of action and after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 24-33 SU and 40-15-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
8-Unit bet on the Eagles plus the 3.5 points and is valid to 2.5 points.

Betting on road teams priced between 3- and 7-point underdogs that have two or fewer losses that defeated a divisional foe, who has three or more losses in the previous meeting have gone 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Eagles are 7-0 ATS when on the road and following a game in which they allowed 30 or more points; 31-14-1 ATS following two straight games in which 50 or more points were scored. Cowboys are 16-38-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.  

Eagles have played a much more difficult schedule to date than the Cowboys, who have yet defeat a team with a winning record. From my predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have an edge in time of possession. In past games when meeting these projections and also facing a divisional foe has seen them go 54-2 SU and 48-6-2 and since 2017 they have gone 12-0 SU as a dog.
Let’s bet the Eagles plus the points and should the Cowboys score a TD first in this game or get to 10-0 or 10-3 lead during the first half, then the money line for pizza money sized bet is a great opportunity.

Bills vs. Chiefs
4:25 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on the Bills at pick-em or a dog price.  If they do move to a favorite bet 50% of your bet size on the Bills, then look for any underdog price of 3.5 or more points for the Bills during the first half of action.

Buffalo is off the BYE and the Chiefs have not been playing well of late. Over a three stretch that began 5 games ago, they did not score a single point in the second half. Buffalo is healthier than they have been since the start of the season and are in desperation mode at 6-6 and truly playing with their season on the line.

The following betting algorithm has done quite well.

·      Bet on road teams facing a conference foe.

·      The road team has failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last four games.

·      The game occurs in December.

·       

51-47 SU  (52%)| 67-30-1 ATS (69%) last 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points has seen our road team go 31-12 ATS (72%) and supports a bet on the Bills

Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in roads games following a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points; 22-7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in road games they have gone 49-5 SU and ATS and 15-4 SUATS for 79% over the past 10 seasons.

Lions vs. Bears

8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 3.5 points and is a valid bet if they remain the underdog.

Betting against favorites of not more than 4.5 points that are playing in week 14 and later and are coming off a road win and have a winning record on the season have gone 14-21 SU and 11-22-2 for 33% winning bets since 1989. If that false favorite defeated a divisional foe in a previous meeting, they underperform even more going 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS for a miserable 21% winning bets. This all supports a best bet opportunity on the Chicago Bears.

Colts vs. Bengals
1:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on the Colts plus 2.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on teams coming off an ATS win in which they won the game outright by a single score , completed 30 or more passes in that win and now find themselves priced as a home favorite have gone 24-30 SU and 20-34 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.  If the total is 44 or more points in these games, our road warrior has gone 22-14 SU and 26-10 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Rams vs. Ravens
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points and sprinkle the money line if the Ravens score a TD first in this game.

Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games have gone 16-19 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018. If the total in these games is 40 or more points, these road dogs have gone 13-18 SU and 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 ET | Prime
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Patriots +6 points.

I was holding my nose tightly given the stickiness of this road dog, who has won just two games this season. However, as we saw on Monday, which was not the first time, teams that look to have minimal chance of being competitive let alone have a chance to win the game outright, somehow find a way to shock NFL fans. I do believe this is one of those games.

Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 21-33 SU and 37-16-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2019. If our road underdog is priced between 3 and 9 points they have done even better posting a 20-5 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets and if the game occurs from Week 13 on out, these dogs with a serious case of fleas and badly needed bath are a perfect 10-0 ATS and 5-5 SU since 2019.

Betting on terrible teams that are priced between 3.5 and 10-point dogs and averaging 14 or fewer PPG on the season and scored fewer than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 36-18 for 67% winning bets since 1990. If the game is occurring from Week 9 on out, these dogs have gone 12-15 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
EverBank Stadium
8:15 ET | ABC/ESPN
8-Unit best Bet on Jacksonville minus the 10 points.

Consider betting 70% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 30% more at 6.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only.

Betting on home favorites from -5 to -12 points in a game with a total of 40 or fewer points that have covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games and facing a losing record team has earned a solid 31-6 SU (84%) and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Betting on home teams that are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 6 or more YPPL and was outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 29-13-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.41 yards per play.

I have been hearing and more importantly seeing that the offensive play calls are now being called by Doug Pederson and since this ‘rumor’ began to circle around the Jaguars offense has been quite good. In the past two weeks, the Jaguars have scored 58 points, they have won and covered 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss and failed cover to the 49ers, who are destroying everyone on their schedule since the BYE week three weeks ago. The Bengals have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Their ground game has all but disappeared and gained just 25 yards on 11 rushes in their 16-10 loss to divisional foe Pittsburgh. The Bengals D has allowed 153, 157, and 188 rushing yards in each of their last three games.

Pederson is 7-0 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the HC of the Jaguars; 10-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages less than 1 turnover per game for his career.

From the predictive models we are looking for the Jaguars to have 100 or more total yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In previous home games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to a 173-5 SU record and 146-28-4 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets since 2019.

Kansas City vs Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
8:20 ET | NBC
8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 6 points and is good to 5.5 points.

Betting on dogs that are coming off two consecutive wins priced as the underdog in each one and has won between 40 and 49% of their 8 or more games played on the season has earned a solid 28-10-2. ATS for 74% winners over the past 30 seasons and is 6-0 ATS and 4-2 SU since 2019.

Chiefs are 1-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win and facing a foe also coming of an ATS win.

Chiefs are 0-6 ATS coming off a win in which that opponent had a double-digit lead.

Chiefs are 1-10 ATS coming off a double-digit win.

From the predictive model, the Packers are 29-2 SU and 27-4 ATS (87%) when scoring 21 or more points and forcing 2 or more opponent turnovers in home games since 2014.

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome
1:00 ET | FOX
Lions -4.5 | 47.5-point total

Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season.

On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

SMU vs Tulane
American Athletic Championship
4:00 ET | ABC
8-Unit bet on Tulane minus the three points and is good up to 4.5 points, but that is unlikely to occur.

Betting on a team that has covered the spread by 50 or more points over their past 5 games both teams have won 80% or more of their games and the total of the game is 45 or more points has earned a 54-25-3 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015.

From the predictive model, we learn that Tulane is 62-14 SU and 57-19 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. SMU is 16-94 SU and 27-83 ATS for 24.5% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

Louisville vs FSU
ACC Championship
8 ET | 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point.

FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production.

FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes.

[QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.

Washington vs. Oregon
8-Unit Best Bet on the Oregon Ducks minus the 10 points and this line may drop to 9.5 or fewer points as kickoff approaches.

Betting on teams that are gaining 5.8 or more RYPA and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards and now facing a foe that gaining between 4.3 and 4.8 RYPA has earned a solid 125-70 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive mode, we learn that Oregon is 122-4 SU and 87-3% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points and having the same or fewer interceptions thrown. If they have scored 41 or more points and did not throw an interception has produced a 71-1 SU record and 54-15-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

New Mexico State vs Liberty
C-USA Championship
8-Unit Best Bet on the Liberty Flames -10.5 points and is valid up to -12 points.

Undefeated teams facing a foe with three or more losses in their Conference Championship game are 41-7 SU and 13-17 ATS for 65% winners since 1996. If our team si favored they are 41-5 SU and 31-15 ATS for 67.4% winners. If a double-digit favorite they have gone 34-3 SU and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets.

From the predictive models we learn that Liberty is 41-8 SU and 36-10-1 ATS in games in which they have scored 31 or more points since 2018. Plus, if they score28 or more -points and gain 450 or more yards has produced a 32-3 SU mark and 26-8-1 ATS record good for 77 % winning bets.

Seahawks vs Cowboys
Thursday | Prime
8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks +7.5 points
5-Unit Best Bet on the Over.

Betting on road teams in a non-divisional clash that are coming off a divisional game and after this game they will take on a divisional foe (Sandwich) on the road has gone 16-9 ATS for 64% winning bets and the OVER is 16-8-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl Champions in their wins, but then have struggled against losing record teams such as the Arizona Cardinals, for instance. This is a ‘sandwich’ game for both teams and serious regression spot for the Cowboys.

Betting on teams that have failed to covered the spread by 33 or more points spanning their last five games and taking on a foe that has seen the OVER go 33 or more points spanning their last five games has produced a 34-33 SU record and 47-19-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2010.

So, consider an in game pizza money parlay if you can get the Seahawks at 10 or more points and the total at 43.5 or fewer points during the first half of action.

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
8:15 ET
8-Unit Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the 3 points and is good down to 2.5 points.

Betting on road teams priced between a 3.5-point underdog and favorite that is coming off a road loss but covered the spread and with the game taking place in November has earned an outstanding 21-11 SU (66%) and 24-8 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 1989.

I only like betting the money line in-game if the Vikings score a TD first or go up 10-0 in the first half of action. So, making the 8-Unit bet preflop and then add pizza money sized wager if the Vikings do get off to a solid start.

The Vikings are just 17-23 SU and 11-28-1 ASTS fort 28% winning bets when coming off back-to-back games allowing less than 75 rushing yards in each game. The Vikings allowed 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts top the Broncos last week and 65 rushing yards on 15 attempts to the Saints the week prior to that one. They have also covered the spread in their last six games. Home favorites that are on a five or more-game ats win streak and facing a divisional foe that has won less than 40% of their games have gone just 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets.

Let’s bet on the Chicago Bears and get the 3 points.

LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
4:05 ET Sunday | FOX
8-UNIT BEST BET on the Rams at pick-em (money line) and use the money line on the Rams whether the market moves to price them as a favorite or underdog.

Betting on a team that has failed to cover the spread in each of their last games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in two consecutive games and in a game priced between the 3’s has gone 31-14-3 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game is a divisional showdown, our team, the Rams, have gone 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets.

Clemson vs South Carolina
7:30 ET | Saturday
Williams Brice Stadium, Atlanta
8-Unit Best bet on South Carolina plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 12.5 points that are riding a three or more-game win streak and facing a foe that has won at least their previous game and with a total of 50 or more points has gone 44-21-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system has not had a losing season spanning this 10-season slice of games.

SC is 5-6 and needs the win to be bowl eligible and that is far more motivation that what Clemson has to grab a hold of as they conclude their very disappointing season already with four losses. Clemson is 0-7 ATS failing to cover by an average of 13.6 PPG after allowing seven or fewer points in the first half of each of their last two games.

Alabama vs Auburn
Iron Bowl | 3:30 ET
8-Unit bet on Auburn +13 points and is good down to 11.5 points.

Auburn head coach Freeze is a solid 31-14 ATS when priced as the dog for his career and 16-4-1 ATS when facing a strong passing attack that is completing 62% or more of their passes.

Betting on home underdogs that are allowing an average of 5.2 to 6.2 YPPL and facing a foe that is an elite offense gaining 6.2 or more YPPL and is coming off two consecutive games gaining an average of 6.2 or more YPPL in each game has earned an outstanding 90-42-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. Not a single unprofitable season over the past 10 seasons.

Ohio State vs Michigan
Noon EST, Saturday
10-Unit Best Bet on Ohio State plus the 3 points

Since 1980, there have been 34 games pitting 10 or more-win teams against each other and the DOGS have gone 13-21, but 20-12-2 ATS for 63% winning bets. If both teams have 10 wins exact, the dog has gone 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% and there have been just three matchups featuring 11-0 teams and the DOG is 3-0 SUATS.

Bet Over OSU points total of 20.5 points -115

Highest scoring half being the second +115

First Half three-way on OSU +150 to be leading at the half.
Note: OSU and Michigan have only been tied three times at the half since 1980 and the three-way line for a tie is only +600, which is horrid value. In those three games that were tied at the half OSU won all three games.

In a matchup of undefeated teams in weeks 12 or 13, the dog has gone 8-10 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1987. If the dog is priced at single-digits, they have gone 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS for 75% winners.

I absolutely love the OSU defense right now and that is the part of this team no one is talking about. Since allowing 17 points in a 37-17 win over Maryland they have allowed an average of 8.5 PPG over their last six games. They have allowed more than 200 passing yards just one this season and that was back in Week 3 action where they won 63-10 over Western Kentucky and second and third stringers were in the game. So, overall OSU ranks 2nd in scoring defense allowing 9.5 PPG and second to Michigan, who is #1 allowing 9 PPG, but have played a much easier schedule. OSU ranks best nationally with a 0.145 points per play ratio, best allowing 3.9 YPPL, second-best allowing 27% third down conversions, best allowing 4.7 YPPA, and #2 allowing 145 PYPG.

Michigan is not a good passing team ranking 61st averaging 228 YPG so they are going to struggle mightily to move the chains on any third and long situation.

This game could come down a field goal and that is not good news for Michigan, who ranks 124th of 137 D1 programs making just 56% of their attempts this season. OSU ranks 15th converting 88% of their field goal attempts.

From the model we are expecting OSU to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games OSI when in this role have gone 145-5 SU and 106-40-4 ATS for 73% winners and when priced as the road dog, they are 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.

UTSA vs Tulane
3:30 ET | ABC
Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
10-UNIT BEST BET on UTSA plus the 3.5 points and is valid if they remain the dog.

Betting on road underdogs that are scoring between 28 and 34 PPG, facing a foe with a defense allowing an average between 16 and 21 PPG, after week 6 of the regular season and is coming off a game in which they scored 24 or more points in the first half has earned a highly profitable 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team also scored 42 or more points in their previous game, the improve to a stellar 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winners.

Betting on road teams facing a foe that has lost to the spread by 49 or more total points over their last 5 games with the game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 has earned a solid 60-28-1 ASTS mark for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road team has three or fewer losses on the season, they soar to a 23-9-1 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.

UTSA is 14-1 SU when facing a defense allowing 58% or higher completion percentage over the past two seasons; 11-1 SU when facing an elite offense that is gaining 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
7:30 PM EST Thanksgiving Day
8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi State plus the 10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

Ole Miss is on a 2-9 ATS streak following a game in which forced no more than a single turnover. Betting on home underdogs between +155 and +325 on the money line that are coming of a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and now facing a foe that has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games has gone 23-17 SU averaging a +198 money line wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI.

Miss State needs the qin to become bowl eligible and there are 8 returning starters on that offense that will want to do just that especially against their state rival Ole Miss squad. I think that motivating factor for State is significant and may be the edge that gets them within single digits and a possible win.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
12:30 PM ET | FOX
8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions minus the 7.5 points and is valid up to -9, but that is unlikely to happen.

Betting on favorites of 3 or more points and facing a divisional foe, are coming off a win, the last two games went OVER the total, and the last three games have seen the total lower than the previous game has gone 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. This total is priced at 47 points, last week the total was 48 points and week prior to that one the total was 48.5 points.

We were on the Chicago Bears as a 7.5-point dog and they were leading by 6 points entering the fourth quarter against the Lions, who came from behind and won the game. Teams that have exceeded their team scoring total line by more than 10 points over their last two games and are favored by four or more points against a divisional foe and are coming off a come from behind win in which they were trailing by 6 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter have gone 17-9-1 ATS for 65.4% winning bets.

Eagles vs Chiefs
8:15 ET | ESPN
Arrowhead Stadium
8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the 2.5 points.

The Chiefs have had 23 games – most in the NFL - among 49 played since 2021 that they and their opponent both had 7 or more-point leads in the same game. So, this lends itself to multiple lead changes for this game against the Eagles. They are both the best team currently in the NFL and do think there will be lead changes during the first half of action. So, let the scoring volatility work for you and consider betting 70% on the Eagles preflop and then if KC scores the first TD of the game and it occurs during the first half of action then add the 30% remaining balance on the Eagles.

Betting on road underdogs that have gained 7 or more yards per pass in each of their last two games and facing a host that allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass in their previous game has earned highly profitable 53-25-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 2 and 7.5 points, they have gone on to a 38-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Player Props
Under Travis Kelce 7.5 receptions -135
Over Mahomes passing attempts 37.5 -118 at FanDuel

Over Swift rushing and passing yards 77.5 at FanDuel.

Vikings vs Broncos

8:20 PM EST Sunday Night FB

Empower Field at Mile High, Denver

10-Unit best Bet on the Denver Broncos -2.5 points and is good up to and including -4.5 points.

Betting on losing record teams from Week 9 on out that are facing a foe that has won 50 to 60% of their games and coming off an upset home win have produced a remarkable 18-13 SU record and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our team is playing at home, their record has been 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. If the game has a total of 45 or fewer points, our team regardless of home or away situation have gone 14-11 SU and 21-3-1 ATS for 88% winning bets.

Betting on home teams using the money line that are on a 3 or more-game Under streak, is scoring between 17.5 and 23 points per game and facing a foe that is allowing 17.5 to 23 PPG from Week 9 on has earned a highly profitable 32-13 SU and 31-13-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Cardinals vs Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston
8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals plus the 6 points

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points

·      Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.

·      That foe is coming off an upset win.

·      That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.

If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Cardinals vs Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston
8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals plus the 6 points

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points

·      Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.

·      That foe is coming off an upset win.

·      That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.

If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Syracuse vs Georgia Tech
Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta
8:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on Syracuse plus the 6.5 points

Consider betting the Orange with 60% of your normal betting amount for an 8-Unit Titan. Then if the first score of the game is a TD by GT add 30% on the LIVE in-game line. Next, add the remaining 10% if GT earns the first two scores of the game by two TDs or a TD followed by a FG or even a safety. The next scenario for either the 30% or the 10% is to bet Syracuse if they lose the lead during the first half of action.

Betting on teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that is coming off a loss by 17 or more points has earned a 345-86 SU record and a 249-175-7 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 2009. If we drill down and filter that our team is on the road, their record improves to 163-47 (78%) and 138-70-2 ATS for 66% winning bets. If then add in only those games with a total between 50 and 54.5 points their record soars to a remarkable 48-10 SU (83%) and 43-15 ATS mark for 74% winning tickets. If our team is a dog of 2.5 or more points, they have gone 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.

Both teams need the win to be bowl eligible and Syracuse does have a winnable game against Wake Forest in their finale. G-Tech has No. 1 Georgia on deck and no chance to win that game so there is a lot on the line for both programs. I like what I saw out of the Orange offense last week in their 28-13 road win over Pittsburgh scoring 21 points in the second half and hold Pitt scoreless. Granted, it was on a neutral field, but nevertheless the Orange looked solid on both sides of the ball, and I see that positive development carrying over to this game as well.

Oregon vs Arizona State
4:00 PM EST
Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
8-Unit best Bet on ASU plus the 24.5 points

•        23-10 ATS for 70% winning tickets since 2006.

•       If our team is playing at home

4-3 SU | 6-1 ATS (86%) since 2015

LIVE in-game strategy is to bet 80% preflop at +24.5 and then look for Oregon to score a touchdown and look to get the remaining 20% at 27.5 or more points during the first half of action.

No.3 Michigan vs Maryland
SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
12:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on Maryland plus the 18.5 points and sprinkle the money line.

Undefeated teams play on the road as a conference favorite and facing a host that Has won 60% or more of their games from Week 10 on out have gone 46-61-1 ATS for 57% winners and if the host is coming off a conference win and covered the spread by 7 or fewer points has earned a 5-10 ATS mark for 33% winners. So, fading these undefeated teams is the way to go late in the regular season.

From the predictive model, we learn that Maryland has gone 8-2 ATS as a home dog when they have had fewer turnovers than the guest and 12-6 ATS when having the same or fewer turnovers.

Buffalo vs Miami (Ohio)

7 ET, Wednesday

8-Unit Best bet on the Buffalo Bulls plus the 9

points and is valid if the price stays above 8

points.

Betting on a road team that has struggled to win 25 to 40% of their games, facing a winning record host and has seen their last three games play Under the total by at least 21 points in total has earned a solid 86-56-2 ATS for 61% winners since 2014. If the host has covered at least 5 of their last 6 games ATS, our road warriors have gone 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets.

Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois
7 PM | ESPNU
Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, IL
8-Unit best Bet on Northern Illinois minus the

From the predictive models we are looking for Northern Illinois to sacore at least 30 points and gain at least 7.5 yards per pass tonight. In past home games in which NIU achieved these measures has led them to a highly profitable 54-10 and 46-18 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2006 and 9-3 ATS over the past 5 seasons. They are also 13-5-1 ATS for 72% when scoring 30 or more points and their foe had 60 or more penalty yards called over the past five seasons.

Take Northern Illinois

Toledo vs Bowling Green
Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH

7:00 PM ESPN2
8-Unit best bet on Blowing Green plus the 10.5 points and is valid down to 9.5 points.

Betting on home dogs that have won three straight games that are taking on a foe that is coming off one or more consecutive wins has gone 95-61-2 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 3.5 and 12 points, they have gone to a 57-30-1 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in these games has been 50 or more points, our home dogs have gone 43-20-1 ATS for 68.3% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Bet Bowling Green.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
Highmark Park, Orchard Park, NY
8:15 PM ABC/ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the 7 points and good at 6 points. I do not see this line moving ahead of kickoff.

Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are struggling on defense allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 75-36-3 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our road dog is in a matchup against a conference foe, their record soars to 57-21-1 ATS for 73% winners and if we drill further and include only games with a total of less than 50 points these dogs are a remarkable 43-13-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe that has not forced a turnover in two consecutive games has earned a robust 21-21 SU record and 33-9 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from Week 8 on out these dogs have garnered a wealth-building 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets.

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
4:25 PM | FOX
8-Unit Best bet on the Washington Commanders plus the 6 points and is valid bet down to 4.5 points, although I do not see any significant change in the market ahead of kickoff.

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup that are facing home favorites of not more than 6-points that are coming off a humiliating loss by 28 or more points and with a total of 46 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 38-19-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The best of all is the fact that these wounded teams have gone 0-12 ATS and 2-10 SU over the past 10 seasons. A rare situation, but one that has significant analytical meaning (p-Value and others)

USC vs Oregon
8-Unit best bet on USC plus the 15.5 points and is good as long as USC is a double-digit underdog.

This is an insane amount of points to be giving USC, who has stumbled lately, and who is getting mispriced because of Oregon’s monster blowout win of Cal last week (Oregon was our PAC-12 MAX Bet of the Month).

Before the season began, the Circa had this game priced as Oregon favored by just two points and this meteoric rise is presenting a terrific betting opportunity. USC has not covered the spread in seven straight games and the OVER has won the money in these games.

Betting on road teams using the money line that allowed 42 or more points in their last game and have outscored their foes by 7 or more points in the first half of action has earned a 60-33 record for 65% winning bets and has made a highly profitable 42 units on the money line.

From the predictive model we learn that USC is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have scored 31 or more points and won the turnover battle in games played over the past five seasons.

Texas vs TCU

Amon G. Carter Stadium, Forth Worth, TX
7:30 PM EST | ABC
8-Unit Best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 12.5 points

Betting on a ranked double-digit favorite facing an unranked foe. Our favorite is gaining an average of 4.8 yards per rush, outgained their previous foe by 125 or more yards on the ground, is now facing an average ground attack averaging 4.3 to 4.8 YPRA has earned a solid 34-20-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting road favorites between 10 and 21.5 points that have won four of their last 5 games with the current game taking place in November has earned a 49-6 SU record and 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Washington State vs California
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
4:00 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on Washington State plus the points, currently priced as 2.5-point dogs.

Betting on road underdogs that are averaging at least 400 total yards per game and are coming off a very poor offensive game in which they averaged 3.85 or fewer yards per play has earned a 35-12-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2015. If the game occurs from Week 9 on to the end of the season has earned a 19-5-3 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets since 2015.

Betting on losing record road teams priced between the 3’s and is facing a host that is coming off a road blowout loss of 28 or more points, and that host has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has earned a 37-13-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 years and is 17-5 ATS over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive playbook, we are expecting WSU to score at least 28 points and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which WSU met or excee3ded th4ese projections has led them to a 59-15 SU record and a 57-17 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets.

Texas Tech vs Kansas

Noon ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on Kansas minus the points, currently priced at -4 and is good up to and including 6 points. That steam move is not expected to happen and see the market locked in at -4.

Betting on home teams from week 8 on out to the end of the regular season that are averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game, allowed less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG has earned a solid 49-15 SU record and 43-18-3 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2015. If our team is in a conference matchup and favored by any amount, the record improves to a highly profitable 25-8-1 ATS for 76% winning bets. Take Kansas

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
8:15 PM Prime Video
10-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the 3.5 points

Betting on any team that is facing a foe that has won 25% or fewer of their games, is coming off two consecutive road losses, and with the game taking place from Week 5 on out to the end of the season has earned a highly profitable 51-33-6 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2010. If our team is the underdog in this matchup, their record soars to 12-12 SU and 16-6-2 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. If the total has been less than 40 points, our team has gone an impressive 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 82-37-4 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our game has a total of 42.5 or fewer points, our road dogs have gone a near-perfect 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2015 and is 8-0 ATS since 2016.

The Panthers have covered the spread just once this season. Teams with no more than a single ATS win in games played from Week 10 on to the end of the season have gone 23-25 SU and 34-11-3 ATS for 76% winning bets since 1989 and is 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2009 (15 seasons) and has not lost since Week 12 of the 2012 season. Since that loss, this system is 10-0 ATS!

Southern Mississippi vs LA Lafayette
Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
7:30 PM | ESPNU
8-Unit Best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns minus the points.

The Cajuns are averaging 197 rushing yards per game ranking 14th nationally and will be facing a defense that ranks 114th nationally allowing 186 RYPG. So, the models are projecting that the Cajuns will wear down the SMU defensive front and gain over 200 RY. The models also project that the Cajuns will gain 450 or more total yards and commit no more than single turnover.

In past games, the Cajuns are 54-10 SU and 47-15-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and gaining 450 or more total yards. In addition, if they committed no more than a single turnover, they have gone 34-5 SU and 32-7 ATS for 82% winning bets.

Central Michigan vs Western Michigan
Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI

7:00 PM EST, ESPNU

8-Unit best bet on Western Michigan Broncos minus the -3 points.

From the predictive models, we are expecting WMU to score 31 or more points, The market has a 30 to 27 WMU home win given the 57.5 point total and WMU favored by three points, In past games in which WMU scored 31 points and had the same or fewer turnovers has led them to an outstanding 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Chargers vs Jets
Monday Night Football | MetLife Stadium
8:15 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points

5-Unit Best Bet on the Under | No Parlay – not worth the added risk.

It is a fact that the 10-UNIT MAX Bets have done very well in all sports for more than four years of betting opportunities hitting 68.8% winning tickets. Do not make the mistake that these plays anything more than that you can also look at them as the fact they lost 31% of the time. No one including me, knows if this play is going to win or lose, but over the course of a season or calendar year it is likely that we will generate profits by betting each one as they arise in a disciplined manner.

With that said, I am offering a special subscription for just $300 to get the remaining 8-weeks of the calendar year all access to every NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL 10-Unit best bet, which is more than 50% of what you would pay.

I like betting Under in game during the first half of action at 42.5 or more points. So, consider betting 3.5 units preflop and then took to add 1.5 units at 42.5 points.

Also, consider betting 7-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 3-units at pick-em during the first half of action.

Last Sunday, the Jets and Giants played one of the ineptest games since at least 2000. The Giants managed to pass for negative yardage, which marks only the 7th time that any NFL team passed for negative yardage in a game since 1998. The last time any NFL passed for -9 or fewer yards was the Browns, who lost 48-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars December 3, 2000.

So, home teams coming off a game in which they had 10 or more points, their previous opponent had 10 or more punts and with the current game total between 31 and 41 points has seen the Under go 13-4-1 for 77% winning bets.

There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989. 

Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989.

Justin Herbert looked at his best since suffering the grotesque injury to his fingers on his non-throwing hand. Granted the Bears were without their two starting safeties, but still Herbert was very accurate with all his passes. Jets defense has been great this season, but they have not been able to get off the field allowing 40% third down conversions. The Chargers are excellent in third down situations converting 41% of them on the season. The jets also are getting a sack on 6.94% of the plays ranking just 20th in the league. The Chargers OL is expected to protect Herbert well knowing the rank 7th in the league allowing a sack on just 5.6% of their passes.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers do get pressure on the QB more time than not and rank 12th with 7.90 sack percentage. The Jets OL has not been good in large part to injuries and allow a sack on close to 10% of their plays ranking 27th in the league.

Chargers are 7-0 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive Under results in games played over the past three seasons.

From the predictive model, there is a high probability that the Chargers will hold the Jets to fewer than 21 points and force at least two turnovers. The Chargers are 21-5 SU and 19-6-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when they allowed 21 or fewer points and 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and forced two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 1-20 SU and 2-18-1 ATS for just 10% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points and committing two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 7-41 SU and 10-37-1 ATS for 21% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points in games played over the past 5 seasons.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST, 8-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points.
This is expected to be a great game between these two NFC East Rivals and there is a high probability of many lead changes. So, if that happens use that volatility to your advantage abdf consider betting 5 units on the Cowboys preflop and then add 1.5 units if the Eagles score a TD first to take a 7-0 lead, or kick a FG, then score a TD to go up 10-0 in the first half of action. Then look to get the Cowboys for the remaining 1.5 units at Dallas +9.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on winning record road teams from Week 8 on out that are facing a host that coming off a divisional road win and has won 75% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 30-12 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 ATS record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons.

LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers

1:00 PM EST, Lambeau Field

8-Unit best Bet on the Packers minus the points

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play and was outgained by 100 or more yards in their previous game has gone to earn a 93-21 SU record and a 69-42-3 ATS mark good for 62% winners since 2010. If our home team is on a three or more-game losing streak, the record improves to 25-11 SU and 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2010. The clincher is the fact that these home teams that have the foe on the second or more road game and that opponent having lost their last game, which was also on the road are a perfect 7-0 ATS.

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM EST,
8-Unit best bet on the Bears plus the points

This is a highly contrarian bet that may make no sense at all, but let’s get into the numbers why the Bears are a terrific betting opportunity.

Betting on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points and that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 14-17 SU record and a jaw-dropping 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. If a road dog of 7 or more points their record has been 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018.

Before the NFL season began, the Circa puts out lines and totals for every game of the NFL season. This game opened with the Bears a 2.5-point dog and now has shot up 7 points to a current 9.5-point price. When the line change has moved 7 or more points from the opening, and the game is taking place from Week 8 on out, the ATS record of betting on these unwanted teams is a solid 65% ATS.

Betting on dogs that are facing a team that has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their last three games and are outgaining their foes by a 50 or more YPG on the season has gone 27-9-2 ATS for 75% over the past five seasons.

Kansas vs Iowa State
7 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on Iowa State -3 points. I like this bet up to and including 4 points.

Betting on home teams that are coming off a double-digit road win and hosting a team coming off an upset win over a conference rival priced as 6 or more-point underdogs has earned a 109-20 SU record good for 85% wins and 86-42-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the past 43 seasons (since 1980). If that foe is ranked in the Top-25, the home team has gone 7-1 ATS and SU.

California vs Oregon
5:30 PM, Autzen Stadium
10-Unit Best Bet on Oregon minus the points

Bet on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game and whose defense has held their previous three opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards in each game has produced a highly profitable 63-5 SU record and 46-18-4 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2010. This system has had 18 consecutive seasons of profitability.

At No.6 Oregon has all the motivation to play well and four all four quarters even if they do run the score up on California. The CFP committee served notice that margin of victory over conference foes does matter when they selected Ohio State as No. 1 this past week.

Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons. Cal is just 4-14 ATS home a home loss, but did cover the spread. They lost 50-49 to USC last week. Oregon head coach Lanning is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in each of their last three games.

Betting on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that have scored 31 or more points in each of their two previous games and has a great defense that is allowing an average 16 PPG on the season and is facing a foe that has a bad defense allowing 28 to 34 PPG has produced a 61-3 SU record and 41-23 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 1992. If our favorite is hosting the game, their record has been 32-1 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1992. The clincher here is if our home favorite has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, the record soars to 35-1 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets regardless of game site.  

The current market implies a 42-18 Oregon win and the predictive model shows a high probability that Oregon is going to score at least 35 points in this contest. Even when they score 28 or more points they have earned a 28-15-1 ASTS mark for 65% winners; 24-9 ATS mark when scoring 35 or more points; 14-3 ATS when scoring 42 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. When at home and scoring 42 or more points they are 8-2 ATS for 80%.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

3:30 PM ESPN

8-Unit best bet on FSU minus the points

No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season having to face two powerhouse ranked teams starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4 and won them both on the road. Having played an won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs.

Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida.

FSU ranks 4th nationally averaging 41.5 PPG and rank 18th allowing 18.3 PPG having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions and earning an 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earning a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position.

FSU has six receivers, who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers, who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game.

A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU

FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games.

·      Is favored by 19.5 or more-points.

·      Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games.

·      Our team is facing a losing record host

Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers

8:20 PM

10-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the nine points and consider adding a sprinkle on the money line during the first half if the spread gets to 11 or more points.

Betting road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that held each of their last three foes to less than 100 rushing yards have gone 26-5 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2018. If they are dogs priced between 6.5 and 10 points has produced an even better 11-2 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets since 2018.

Betting against home favorites between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off a road loss and in a matchup of teams that have lost 60% or more of their games on the season has earned a solid 46-25 ATS mark for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If both teams have lost between 60 and 75% of their game son the season, these dogs soar to a highly profitable 23-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and up to and including 10 points that are allowing a pass completion percentage of 60% and higher and coming off a solid defensive game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass have earned an outstanding 49-27-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If not a conference matchup, these dogs have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a divisional foe; 13-28 ATS in home games following a terrible game in which their defense allowed 300 or more passing yards.

From the predictive models we are looking for the Bears to win the turnover battle and gain at least 135 rushing yards in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 14-4 SU and 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

Seahawks vs Browns

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite

Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 39-15-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2009.

Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM, Week 8
8-Unit Best bet on the Texans -3.5 points

So, the Texans find themselves at 3-3 for the season and for the first time in many seasons have realistic expectations to make the postseason. However, the Jaguars lead the AFC South Division at 5-2 and the Texans must keep pace and stay ahead of both Colts abnd Titans, who are both at 3-4 in the division race.

The Texans QB, CJ Stroud, I shaving a solid season completing 127 of 213 passes for 1660 yards, nine TDs and just one interception. Overall, he has attained a 57.1 QBR for the season. In road games he has done much better completing 62% of his 109 passes for 771 yards, three TDs and one interception.

The Texans are coming off the BYE and have had two weeks to focus and prepare for this pivotal game. Moreover, road favorites coming off a BYE week and playing a winless team are 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU. So, I like betting 80% of the 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to get the remaining 20% amount bet if the Panthers score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. If neither occurs, but the halftime line for 20% as long as it is not above a 6.5-point favorite.

The Colts have seen 26 lead changes in their games this season, which is tops in the NFL. The Panthers have experienced 14 lead changes, so the probability that the Texans may trail at some point during the first half is quite high.

New York Jets vs NY Giants

1:00 PM MetLife Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on the Over the total currently priced at 35 points.

Betting on the Over in a game lined between 35 and 42 points with one of the team sin the matchup (Giants) getting outscored by 4 or more PPG and coming off four or more Under results has gone 87-42-2 Over for 62% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Minnesota vs Green Bay

1:00 PM

8-Unit best bet on the Packers plus the 1.5 points or if it is less than that consider the money line.

Betting on teams that have covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in their last two games and with the team (Green Bay) being priced between the 3’s has gone 30-12-3 for 71.4% winning bets since 2015. If in a divisional matchup, our teams have gone 14-3-3 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2015.

No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona
10:30 PM ESPN

10-Unit best Bet on the Wildcats plus the 3 points

Betting on non-ranked home underdogs bet3een pick and 4.5 points that are facing a foe that is ranked and coming off a win that covered the spread by 3.5 to 10 points has produced a 27-20 SU record and 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets sine 1993.

Betting on home underdogs that are taking on a foe that allowed 5.5 or more RYPA in each of their last two games has gone 31-44 SU and 47-27-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If facing a conference foe these home dogs have gone 29-35 SU and 43-20-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If home team is priced as a 5.5 or fewer-point dog, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

Oregon State ranks 14th in scoring offense averaging 35.3 PPG and has the best red zone scoring offense in the nation. They produce scoring drives with their solid rushing attack ranking 28th gaining an average of 183 yards per game. However, Arizona has a great defensive front that ranks 19th nationally allowing just 99 YPG. Arizona can bring the heat effectively too in passing downs getting a sack on 9% on all plays run ranking 21st nationally. Plus, they get the job done in preventing multiple first down scoring drives averaging just 45% of the game on the field and ranks 13th best nationally. So, the OSU ground game is not going to have an easy time running the ball in this matchup – not saying they won’t gain over 100 yards, but it will be a struggle for them to do so.

Arizona can run the ball and have gained 1159 yards on 227 carries for a solid 5.1 YPRA. Jonah Coleman is the featured back and has gained 433 yards on 65 rushes for a 6.7 yards per carry with 3 TDs. Arizona ranks 8th nationally completing 72% of their passes and rank 37th allowing a sack on just 4.6% of plays run.

No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky

Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

7:00 PM | ESPN

8-Unit best bet on the Wildcats plus the points

currently priced at +3.5 points.

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. If our team is playing at home, their record soars to 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe

5:00 PM EST Week 9

8-Unit Best bet on Arkansas State plus the points

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has scored 24 or fewer points in total over their past 2 games has improved the results to 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.

Tampa Bay vs Buffalo
8:15 PM Prime Video

8-Unit best Bet on the Bucs plus the 9.5 points

Betting on road underdogs facing a non-conference foe coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a solid 87-66-7 ATS record goods for 57% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and an 18-10-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If a matchup of winning record teams, the road team has gone 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons.

A sprinkle on the money line is worth it as I do see the Bucs being vastly undervalued in this matchup.

Syracuse vs Virginia Tech
7:30 EST, ESPN
8-Unit best bet on the Orange plus the points

Syracuse has been coming up on the radar more so this season than in others and that’s ok no matter if they are 4-3 or 7-0 or even 0-7 as the models present us with opportunities to exploit based on the situations teams find themselves in any matchup. After starting out 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, the Orange suddenly ran out of fire power on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 points in a 31-14 loss to Clemson, then 12 days ago lost to No. 4 ranked FSU 41-3 as failed to cover as 19-point dogs at Tallahassee. In the second to last game, they lost at UNC 40-7 as 9.5-point road dogs. They had five turnovers in the first four games and then turned it over 7 times in the past three games. So, at this point everyone is highly suspect of the Orange and rightfully so based on recency bias alone.

V-Tech is not in the same class as UNC, Clemson, and FSU and few teams in the ACC, if any, would have been able to win on the road against those programs in consecutive weeks. The Orange have extra motivation to win the game and get one step closer to earning a bowl game appearance while at 3-4 V-Tech has little hope of getting to six wins knowing they are on the road at Louisville and BC, then a home finale against a solid NC State program and then a possible win at UVA.

Betting on road dogs between 2.5 and 10 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes and have played UNDER in three of their last four games has produced a 41-50 SU record and a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015.

The base system mentioned first above has had just one losing record season going 2-5 ATS in 2021 over the past 10 seasons.

The Orange are 41-23 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.75 or more YPPL. V-Tech is on an 0-6 ATS streak after having won three of their last 4 games.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky
7:30 PM EST on ESPNU
Houchens Industries – L.T. Smith Stadium
8-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off three consecutive wis over conference foes and has nine or fewer returning starters from last season have gone 52-20-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 30 seasons and is 15-3-1 ATS for 83% winners over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe coming off two consecutive games in which they had a turnover margin of one or better has earned a highly profitable 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Western Kentucky is 21-7 ATS over the past three seasons for 75% winning bets in games that they score 28 or more points and the predictive model projects an 82% probability that they will score 30 or more points.

Chargers vs Chiefs

4:25 EST

Globe Life Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs

Betting on road teams that are facing a team that is outgaining their foes by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt and coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt have gone 72-40-2 ATS for 64% winners last five seasons. If in a divisional matchup, 22-7-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs LA Rams

4:05 PM EST, FOX

SoFi Stadium

8-Unit best bet on the Rams minus the 3-points

Bet on any team that is facing a winning record foe that is coming off an upset home win to a divisional rival

82-48 SU (63%) | 84-39-7 ATS (68%) since 1989

If the foe pressed the QB on

Arizona vs Seattle

4:05 PM EST FOX
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

8-UNIT best bet on the Cardinals plus the 8 points and sprinkle on the money line

Betting against home favorites coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a highly profitable 66-33-3 for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team, the Cardinals, are coming off a SU and ATS loss, they soar to a 27-11-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. This is obviously a highly contrarian bet. Aside from the sentiment Python apps I run on Twitter to access the betting community’s appetite for specific teams, note that 60% of the remain 1785 Circa Eliminator entries are on Seattle.

If our team is also averaging a mediocre 15 or higher yards per point ratio on offense, betting on them has produced a 50-22-3 ATS record for 70% winners over the past five seasons.

Duke vs Florida State
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
7:30 PM EST, ABC
8-Unit Best Bet on the Seminoles minus the 14 points

In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS.

Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State.  FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24.

No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
7:30 EST NBC
8-Unit best bet on the Spartans plus the 24.5 points.

Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points.

Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season.

Central Michigan vs Ball State

Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN

3:30 PM EST, Saturday
8-Unit best bet on the CMU minus the 5.5 points

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup with a total of 45 or fewer points that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in three of their last four games has gone 41-22-1 ATS for 65% winners over the past 10 seasons. If the host has a win percentage of 40% or lower, the road teams improve to 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Penn State vs Ohio State

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Noon ET

10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points.

Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too.

PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners.

The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns.

Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage.

Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners.

PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally.

PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points.

SMU vs Temple
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
7:00 PM EST, ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on the SMU Mustangs minus the points

Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010.

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

James Madison vs Marshall
Jean C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV
7 EST on ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on Marshall plus the points

JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards.

Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game  in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.

NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt