35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Unless you can get +145 or higher on a ML play or higher my normally featured combination wager is not validated. If the line does adjust to the needed level, the consider making a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Titans QB Mariota is already showing why he was worthy to be the No. 1 pick. According to Elias, Marcus Mariota is the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to have multiple touchdown passes in each of his first three career games. The other two are Jay Cutler (2006) and Mark Rypien (1988), who both had multiple touchdown passes in their first four games. Taylor has done well in the Bills wins and has struggled in their losses. So, as he goes so go the Bills. The absence of RB McCoy certainly hurts the versatility of the Bills offense and ultimately forces Taylor to win the game with his arm. Trouble for him in this matchup is that Buffalo grades 7th best in the NFL in pass coverage grade. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-36 mark good for 70% winners using the Money Line and has made 53 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (BUFFALO) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Titans are a solid 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play;  1-6 against the money line (-8.6 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the KC Chiefs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bears will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. The chance for an upset is not that high, but nevertheless add a 4* play using the money line - just in case. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This system has gone 11-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Bears defense has done well this season and grade 9th best overall, and 6th best against the run based on my gradings. KC offense has not been consistent and I strongly believe that Chicago will dominate the LOS. I am also expecting the Bears defense to create turnovers and give the offense a short field to score points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Take the Bears. 

35* graded play on Penn State as they host Indiana in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark using the first half line and good for 74% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PENN ST) in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. I do believe this play based on the SIM is valid to include a 5* play using the first half line. Indiana has a strong ground game, but PSU linebacker play has been improving steadily each week. They won't shut Indiana down, but they will do enough to force Indiana into passing downs and third and long situations. The big part of this game is that PSU will be highly productive in the ground game and will gain at least 175 yards and average between 4.5 to 5.0 yards per rush. In past games, PSU is a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. PSU quarterback Hackenburg is likely to be a NFL top-10 pick, but he has not had the time to display is elite arm. This game will give him that opportunity facing a Hoosier defense that has allowed an average of 503 yards per game. PSU defense has allowed just 284 opponent yards and only 158 opponent rushing yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosier coach Wilson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses allowing

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark good for 77% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered averaging a very nice +142 DOG play since 2005. Play on any team vs the money line (HOUSTON) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a win by 3 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston has been a solid  31-10 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points. Status of luck will not matter in this game. So, if the unexpected happens and he does start, this is still a valid play. The line will adjust accordingly and offer us an even stronger opportunity. Houston is 1-3 on the season and is desperate for a win. Playing at home is a huge advantage for the Texans and I fully expect a huge effort across the board. Colts are floundering right now and I don't see them being able to move the ball consistently in this matchup. Take the Houston Texans.

35* graded play on the Washington redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. The line is currently asking a vig premium at Washington +3 -120, but I don't think there is a chance that this line will go to 2 1/2. Normally, I would play this as a combination wager using line and money line wagers. The ML risk/reward profile simply does not make it a solid wager. Id you do get a money line of +145 or higher, then consider play a 17* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. What was supposed to be a high powered offensive team has turned more into a defensive presence for the Eagles. Bradford looks lost in his progressions and seems scared to death to throw down field in vertical routes. It could be due his B2B ACL injuries and rehabs. Whatever the reason, he looks stressed in the pocket on any route taking 3 seconds or more. The Eagles grade 25th best in the NFL and the passing grade is a horrid dead last in the NFL. Washington's defense is play well and they have the 6th best pass rush based on the gradings. So, you can assured the Redskins will bring pressure from a wide array of schemes. Washington plays a 3-4 scheme and DE Chris Baker grades 5th best in the NFL and is very good against the run. He will almost eliminate flare passes to Eagles RB Sproule's with his seal the edge discipline. He ranks 2nd best in the NFL at his position in pass coverage. So, you have a quick DE dropping back to cover a TE or RB while the zone blitz attacks the QB. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 83% winners since 2010. Play on home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Take the Washington Redskins. 

35* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I am starting to see the emergence of a money line above +150 and this represents an excellent level to construct a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2010. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. Bucs know with a win today they can put themselves right back in the chase having JAX and then Washington next on the schedule. The Bucs WR will have to be a presence today. I do believe Vincent Jackson, Louis Murphy, Mike Evans, and Russell Shepard will have solid games today. Carolina's defense overall is strong, but their corners are not all that impressive. Josh Norman is by far their best, so the favorable matchup is Murphy in man coverage against Tillman. I cannot state with any degree of confidence that one of these corners will shadow Jackson or not, but whatever the decision, there will be opportunities for Winston to extend the defense with vertical routes. This is key as it will then open up a running game that has so far struggled. Their LT has not played well, however he will be getting more help from TE's Stocker and Seferian-Jenkins. Bucs TE have just 7 catches to a TE and all to Jenkins. The game plan today must have more targets to both of these TE players. Theses plays are long hand offs and can serve to augment both the ground attack and the play action vertical routes. In sum, I see Winston having his best game yet as a rookie. Take the Bucs. 

35* graded play on Stanford as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 13 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At the college level some of the most important projections revolves around the number 28. Scoring 28 or yielding 28 often times leads to a direct correlation to an ATS cover. Arizona is just 16-44 ATS (-32.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 4-25 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards; Stanford is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards;  21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Arizona is 3-1 as is Stanford. Arizona though is coming off a very humbling defeat to Conference powerhouse UCLA. In what was lined at pick-em ended with UCLA winning 56-30. Arizona completed just 10 of 28 pass attempts for only 115 yards and three interceptions. Stanford was upset by what is a much better Northwestern team than preseason previews indicated and has since won three straight in dominating fashion. Rushing yards has increased in each game this season. The last game saw them gain 325 yards on 48 attempts and I strongly believe they will gain 250+ in this matchup. Arizona will bring defenders into the box to stop the run and this will open up play action for high percentage completions. So, the Stanford passing game will be featured a bit more than usual to take advantage of what the Arizona defense sets. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on Texas Tech in Big 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This game has also set the all-time high - at least in my database - for the highest total ever posted in Vegas at 90 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come down a touch to 88 1/2. Baylor's coaches know they have major advantages on both sides of the ball. I believe their goal will not be to get into a shoot out with this high powered Tech offense and instead use their unstoppable ground attack to wear down the much smaller Tech DL over the course of the first half. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=8.3 PYA and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is a very nice 5-1 ATS the last three seasons. Of the 34 plays made by the system, 53% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Of the wimnning plays, 65% of them covered by 7+ points. Here is a second system that ahs gone 111-57 ATS for 66% winners since 1992.  Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) excellent passing team with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 3-0 ATS this season and of all plays qualified by the criteria 48% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards I see no reason that would prevent Baylor from attaining more than 300 rushing yards and more than 550 total offensive yards. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on Georgia as they host Alabama in a huge SEC Conference showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 4 points. The public is on 76% of the tickets being written and it has pushed the line down to pick-em at the majority of books. Too much focus on the belief that Alabama just will lose their second game this early in this season. Yet, Georgia has an amazing offense that is highlighted by the media, but is still vastly underrated. More significantly, a win today would leave the Bulldogs with a much clearer path toward their first conference title in a decade, and a nearly certain spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia has only one other ranked opponent after Saturday's game: No. 25 Florida. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (GEORGIA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Last 3 seasons this system has gone 10-2 ATS and of all plays made since 2005, 52% of them covered by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-37 ATS (-28.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 102-47 ATS (+50.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. The algorithms show that Georgia will out gain Alabama in rushing and passing and will have at least a 1.0 yard per play advantage. Also, Alabama is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Last, check out this link to see the latest great IGA video. Not a reason to wager on this game, but still quite impressive and very well done. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/dawgnation/uga-releases-chilling-the-storm-hype-video-for-alabama-game. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on Temple as they take on Charlotte in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 24 or more points. Temple is coming off their BYE week and will be very well rested adn focused for this road tilt. They were heavy road favorites in their last game and needed a mircale finish to just win against UMASS. The minutemen are a pretty darn good squad though and trailed by just 1 point entering the fourth quarter to Notre Dame, before they went on a scoring spree and won going away. Temple will not be overlooking the opponent tonight that is playing in their first full season as an FBS team. They were gashed by Middle Tennessee and I believe Temple will do the same. Charlotte has a decent defense based on the flash stats, but there are several mighty big holes that Temple will be able to exploit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-29 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against any team (CHARLOTTE) poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). Further, you will see that Charlotte will struggle big in the passing game and may not even get more than 125 passing yards in this matchup. Yemple defense will dominate LOS and make it very difficult for Charlotte to score. Take Temple. 

35* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game - yes, that also factors in the loss of Roethlisberger and then being replaced by a 35-year Michael Vick. The focus by the media has been how devastating a loss he is for the offense, but there has been little mentioned about how horrible the Ravens offense has been through three weeks. They rank 30th in my overall team offensive grading. Their pass blocking has been by far the worst (lowest grade) of all NFL teams and Pittsburgh loves to dial up zone blitzes. Steelers pass coverage has been well below average, but is due to the many injuries at those positions and also when the blitz has failed - which is not too many times. CB Ross Cockrell has played on just a third of all snaps, but has done very well when in the game. I do expect him to see more snaps tonight and the secondary will be required to defend the Ravens receivers for much shorter bursts of time. Although Vick is 35, he is still an elite athlete with gifted legs. This is a major difference between he and Big Ben. Vick will be able to put immense pressure on the secondary simply by extending plays. His mobility will minimize the amounts of Raven blitz's tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2005.  Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) with a poor first half defense scoring14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens have been  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play;  8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; Steelers are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take the Steelers.

35* graded play on the  Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Green Bay Packers in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows definitively that KC will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. It is well documented that if you get the winner of the MNF matchup, you will also get the cover ASTS in the majority of games. So, given the favorable projections from the SIM showing that KC has a 47% chance of a SU win and the fact that we are getting paid +245 to assume that risk, I like making this a combination wager. One of two wagers serves to maximize the risk/reward profile. First, wager a 25* amount on the line and add a 3* play using the money line for a 28* amount of total risk. Second, to wager am 18* play on the line and then add a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is a solid  10-2 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. KC has the ground attack led by Charles to control the tempo of the game and gain a significant margin in time of possession. Always a key to going on the road and winning at Lambeau. Despite the scoring barages, there are only 6 teams that have graded positive overall offensive grades. GB ranks 11th and KC 12th, so contrary to media opinions, the Packers are not executing a high level entering this game. GB ranks 23rd in run blocking grade and will struggle against a vastly under rated KC run defense that ranks fifth best. Javing a athletic pass catching TE is a big weapon too for KC. They will execute short passes, which are essentially long hand offs that will spread the linebackers and open up even bigger creases for Charles to dart through in space. Then there is the play action, which no matter the team, is a strong offensive opportunity where Kelce may be the target more often than not. I do believe you will see ample opportunities for KC to strike in the vertical route with Kelce in 'go' routes. Take Kansas City. 

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM projects that SF will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the strong possibility of the upset I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. SF looked quite poor on offense last week in their 43-18 loss at Pittsburgh. However, a bit misleading as Kaepernick passed for 298 yards on a strong 33-46 passing. I am impressed with how they are now using TE Vernon Davis in high percentage routes to create short 2nd and third down siltations. The Arizona offense is doing quite well, but it has put pressure on the defense and their pass defense ranks 29th in the NFL. SF is an 'old' team, but they still have plenty of NFL talent. Kaepernick is also a QB with good legs and can extend plays that puts even more pressure on that suspect secondary. When Kaepernick has started, the 49ers, are a solid 16-9 ATS in road tilts and also 11-5 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher regardless of the week in the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 19-13 mark good for 59.4% winners and has made a whopping 31 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 DOG play since 1983. Play against home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I certainly see the 49ers getting at least 125 rushing yards and may be in a=large part attributed to Kaepernick's scrambling ability. 49ers are 11-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons;  9-0 against the money line (+10.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers.

In addition take the New Orleans Saints for a bonus 25* play.  

35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they host the Indianapolis Colts in AFC Divisional action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Colts are a desperate need of a win and the public sentiment agreeing with that notion is more than reflected in this inflated line. Most think there is no way the Colts can start 0-3, but that is opinion not based on the facts of their first two games. They stumbled out of the gate last season too, but the results are vastly worse this season. Luck, under siege by an aggressive Jets defense throughout the night, has thrown five interceptions and completed just 54.7 percent of his passes in the two losses. His 58.9 passer rating is last in the NFL.  Based on my gradings, Luck is 28th among 33 QB through two weeks of action. If he was under constant pressure, I could make a claim that he will have a huge day today or at least perform significantly better over the next severals weeks. Problem is he has been hit just ONCE while attempting a pass play. He also ranks 30th in yards per attempt and until he and the offense can stretch the field using the vertical routes, there will be minimal change in execution. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark good for 83% winners using the money line. Play against a road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colts are just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Tennessee.

35* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on Nebraska in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM shows a summary projection that SM will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Although the probabilities are low for an outright upset shocker, I encourage you, if available, to put down another 3* unit on the money line. Each season I have had 20+ dogs not only cover, but win outright. I never know when one of these huge dogs is going to shock the world, so it is imperative to maintain your wager discipline each week in order never to miss out on any ATS win or ML gain. SM comes into this game with 10 returning starters on offense including their QB. These teams have experience and chemistry, especially on the OL, that be a significant competitive advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that SM is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. SM played hard against Miss State and covered in Week 1. When going up against weaker opponents the offense shined scoring 52 against South Alabama and 56 at Texas State. They have covered three straight. Nebraska is coming off a heart wrenching OT defeat to Miami where they came from behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter and then only losing in OT. These types of herculian efforts that don't end up in a 'W' can create a playing 'hangover' in the next week - especially when facing a supposedly inferior foe. Take Southern Mississippi. 

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East Divisional showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The Philadelphia fan faithful are legendary for the tail gating and will be more than ready for this rivalry. Why this fan base despises the Cowboys is somewhat of a mystery to me since it is not reciprocated in Dallas. The Eagles will be a playoff contender this season. Yet, I strongly believe they need to execute this offense at NFl game speed for a few more weeks to work out the 'kinks'. Execution is paramount in this system and there are tons of reads after the snap that simply need reps. This is Week 2 and although the Eagles performed better int he second half of Monday's loss to the Falcons, they are still a work in progress. As expected, the Eagles graded average in the offensive detail with neither pass or run being better than the other.  The Dallas defense did di well and they had an excellent pass rush last week. It is not how many sacks or pressures a defense gets on a QB, but how well they protect the edge and execute detail. Dallas did that well and that is certainly a big advantage for them facing Bradford. SIM shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. Given this projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 17* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a stout  3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt 

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road and play the Buffalo Bills. This is the next chapter in the Ryan-Bellichick endless enigma and one that will again prove quite entertaining. The SIM shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 6 points. In Week 1 the Patriots offense was getting into gear and ranked fifth best as detailed by our gradings. They were excellent in the pass game and had better than average pass blocking. Run blocking was average, but they do have Blount returning this week. The Bills defense was much worse than otherwise seen in the game. Their pass rush was horrid ranking third worst in Week 1. Certainly a huge advantage for Brady and the ever changing offensive game plan. Each week there emerges a new target in the Patriots offense making ti nearly impossible for any defense to fully prepare - even for a defensive guru like Ryan. Brady will have more than ample time to scan the field and the ground game will be improved from last week. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Take the Patriots.

35* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Toledo in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning straight up. Given this favorable upset projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for 26* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the probabilities that the upset will occur.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-9 record for 67% winners and has made an incredible 35 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +246 DOG play since 1992. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (IOWA ST) team with a horrible scoring defense last season that  allowed 35 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State. 

35* graded play on the Georgia as they host South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by more than 21 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) that was excellent rushing team from last season averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The system under scores why I am on Georgia and it is simply because of the strong ground attack. Georgia's offensive line will wear down a much smaller SC defensive front over the course of the game. I expect Georgia to have well over 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards on 70+ plays from scrimmage. They will run about twice as much as pass and I just don't anyway SC can contain this offense. SC is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 or more total yards per play; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; Georgia is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2.5 to 3 yards/play. Sc QB Conner Mitch injured his shoulder last game and is out indefinitely. He was the new starter QB this season to a unit retuning just 4 starters. Take the Bulldogs. 

25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the KC Chiefs in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I doubt that we will see the line move to 3 1/2, but we could see the vig increase on the KC -3 line, which in turn boost the money line. I have seen Five Dimes move their money line to +157, so that is a very good line to acquire. I do think the books will follow that lead so if you can get +160 or better, then make the wager a 17* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Based on the complete body of research I have scanned over the past several days, I fully expect Denver to have a strong ground attack tonight that will gain at least 130 rushing yards. This in turn will allow Manning to use quick release technique to hit receivers in space. I think upon occasion you will see an extended play action type of route where Manning will fake and then take three plus steps back and scan the field. This could lead to big vertical routes and he is still very good at delivering the ball to second and third options. KC defense will be on it's heels for the majority of this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Denver is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Take the Broncos. 

25* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they host Clemson in NCAA Thursday Night action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that Louisville will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid opportunity to win the game and avoid starting the season at 0-3. Clemson is 2-0, but played Wofford and Appalachian State, which are teams hardly as strong as Louisville. Louisville lost to Auburn 31-24, but covered as 10 point dog. Last week they did not play well in a home loss to Houston installed as a 13 point favorite. They are not this bad a team and the home loss only makes me more confident that Louisville is going to come out play as a very desperate DOG. The large leep in strength of competitor for Clemson will be a problem as it is impossible to simulate the change of speed and strength from their first two opponents to that of Louisville. I like making this a combination wager as well comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money lie. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I do expect this to be a war and not looking for Louisville to catch Clemson sleeping. Although that would be nice. What is nice, is that in closely played games based on the stat lines, Louisville is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by less than 50 yards. Take Louisville. 

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action on Monday Night Football set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One of the many variables I analyze is betting flows. I use 12 books and I have found that whenever one team is getting better than 70% of the wagers, it supports a play on the other team. There is certainly an irrational exuberance on the Eagles with better than 79% of all wagers on them. The line has moved up, but there are some 'sharps' taking the Falcons side and several of these came in yesterday. This is just one key variable, but it certainly supports the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-23 mark using the money line good for 74% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered  since 2010. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been just  3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. This is the critical part of this play. The Eagles defense is the big question mark going up against a high powered offensive attack with a veteran QB. The Eagles offense appears to be in high gear based on preseason games, but they are still are untested in 'real' games. I do think the Eagles will be a playoff contender as the season evolves, but for this road tilt in Week 1, I like the Falcons to defend their house and get the win. Take the Falcons. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Miami Dolphins set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington has been a solid 52-23 ATS (+26.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Miami is just 14-40 ATS (-30.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. Much media attention centered on Miami QB Tannehill having a breakout season. Yet, he is just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite in his career. I really like Kirk Cousins under center for the Redskins. do see the Redskins being able to run the ball just enough to allow Cousins to use play action to his and his team's advantage. Take the Redskins.  

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a stout 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons;  17-54 ATS (-42.4 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards since 1992;  8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. When the stats are this one sided, any NFL team is going to have favorable (unfavorable) ATS results depending on what side of the game they are on. I certainly see the Seattle defense dominating the LOS and keeping the Rams in third-and-long situations. Converting these situations is a very tough one for even the best offensive teams in the NFL when facing the complexity and strength of this defensive unit. Take Seattle. 

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection calling for JAX to lose this game by 3 or fewer points and also to win the game. I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of wagers maximizes the probability that JAX will win the game. Carolina has an elite QB in Newtown, who had a great camp in the aftermath of his 103.5 million contract. However, he is without stud receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who torn his ACL. That leaves Ted Ginn Jr., who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the last five seasons, and Corey Brown as the starters. Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season. Panthers will rely a ton more on TE Olsen, but JAX has the defensive personnel to cover him well. So, it is the defense that will give JAX the chance to pull off the home upset win. Further, JAX now has a ton of very good young talent that I strongly believe is going completely unnoticed.Take Jacksonville. 

I will have additional releases being issued this afternoon so be sure to check back. 25* graded play on Virginia as they host Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a huge upset win. Last week the Irish defense was dominant over the Longhorns allowing 163 yards of offense and producing 11 3-and-out possessions. That may appear incredible, but that was against a Texas offense that I have ranked below 100th best in the nation. UVA returns five starters on offense, but they are going to be a much stiffer test for the Irish. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just  17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. UVA is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I really see a letdown here by the Irish  after the big game last week and is demonstrated by the fact that they are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Virginia Cavaliers. 

35* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Minnesota in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 12-1 mark fo the past five season and 24-4 ATS since 1992 good for 89% winners. 63% of the games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) excellent passing team from last season with a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a money burning  32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.

25* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Western Kentucky in Thursday Night NCAA Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New England Patriots. In summary, Big ben is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in games where the total is between 46 1/2 and 54 1/2 over the five seasons. Ok, on to the college report detail. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% win percentage) and playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match te SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LT is a solid 28-6 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; WKU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Alabama set to kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset. I would highly recommend making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 55-20 ATS (+33.0 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Here is the best one noting that Wisconsin is  9-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. It will be the massive ground attack by Wisconsin that will win this game for them and Alabama is vulnerable against big time ground attacks. They are  1-7 against the money line (-9.7 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. They also have not faired well in shootout type games. They are just 1-3 against the money line (-18.3 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The -18.3 units also reflects that they were big favorites in these games just as they are against Wisconsin tonight. Take the Badgers. 

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Arizona State set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that A&M will win this game by at least 6 points. A&M returns 16 starters with 8 each on offense and defense and have their QB returning as well. ASU has retunred 7 starters on offense and not their QB. They do return 9 defensive starters, but I just don't see this unit containing A&M for four quarters. This is being contested at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. So although a neutral site, it certainly will have a home game feel for the Aggies. ASU was a blitz heavy defense last season and I fully expect them to bring blitz at least 60% of the time tonight. They blitz an average of 56% in 2014. However, A&M QB Kyle Allen had a better TD/INT ratio when facing the blitz then he did not facing pressure. Slip screens will work very well against an aggressive defensive attack. Plus, look for the TE in play action in vertical routes. A&M is the play. 

25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Virginia in NCAA action set to start at  the as they take on the  action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.SIM shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 21 points. For the first time since 2002, UCLA will start a true freshman at QB in Josh Rosen, who is the No.1 ranked QB in the 2015 class. He has had tremendous practices and has excelled in scrimmages looking more like a veteran Senior signal caller than a kid fresh out of High School action. He will be well protected by an excellent offensive line and will have a strong ground attack led by Paul Perkins. He had 1575 rushing yards in 2014. The strong ground attack will set up play action for Rosen with his elite receivers in man coverage. He has the strength to stretch any defense and the vertical routes will be attacked against UVA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) good offensive team from last season scoring 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. It has gone 20-4 ATS over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is a solid 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992;  31-8 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992; 31-11 ATS (+18.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA.

35* graded play on the Auburn Tigers as they take on the Louisville Cardinal set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AUBURN) good offensive team from last season that scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and it has gone 20-4 over the last 5 seasons. The Auburn defense will be markedly better in 2015 having 8 returning starters from that unit. They will be going up against a Louisville offense that retunrs 5 starters including their QB. The lack of chemistry along the Louisville offensive line will allow Auburn to attack and make plays. Auburn will show blitz on nearly every play to add confusion to OL blocking assignments. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Auburn has a tremendous QB in Jeremy Johnson, who is 6-5 and 240 pounds with a pro strength arm. If you like betting Heisman long shots then this is your man. Take Auburn. 

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  Sim shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 21+ points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-10 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.  Of all the wagers, 54% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; WMU is just  7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992. WMU has had a great turn around to what was a dismal football program that went 1-11 in 2013. Coming off a winning season in 2014 will not be enough to make the step up in competition and face a strong Big Ten Conference foe. MSU is just too deep at the skill positions for WMU to be able to contain for four quarters. MSU offensive line is going to wear down the smaller sized WMU defensive front and will set up play action pass plays in man coverages. Take Michigan State. 

25* graded play on TCU as they take on Minnesota in CFB action set to start  as they take on the  action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 17 points. TCU returns 10 offensive starters including their QB and this will be a huge advantage for them in this matchup. During the first month of the CFB season, teams returning all but one starter on either side of the ball have the experience and continuity of the previous season working for them. This is most notable on offensive lines where chemistry is major quality of excellent offensive units. Of course there are the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the NCAA world that simply reload with elite talent and offset the lack of experience quickly. TCU is an elite team and based on my power ratings from the SIM, they would be 9 point dogs to Alabama on a neutral field. So, I strongly believe that Minnesota will have a very tough time just containing the TCU powerhouse. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) and is a top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 46% of these plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. Here is a second system that has gone 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a third powerhouse system that has gone 34-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2005 and has gone 14-2 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good offensive team from last season scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 44-6 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Minnesota is just 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992;  7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take TCU. 

25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on South Carolina in NCAA Football action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. The line is at -2 1/2 favoring SC. Unless the line gets to -3, there is no opportunity to do a combination wager. If it does climb to 3, then consider making a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line to exploit the upset potential of this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Extremely high probability that UNC will score more than 28 points. SC is just 20-67 ATS (-53.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; UNC is a solid 82-34 ATS (+44.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. UNC returns 10 starts and their QB on offense and this is a monumental advantage for them in this matchup. The offensive line benefits the most form the past game experience and their blocking schemes and assignments are executed at a very high level. SC has just four returning starters on offense and their learning curve will take time even with Spurrier as the teacher. Take UNC tonight. 

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. I'll discuss the technicals supporting New England first and then move on to the specific fundamentals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 mark using the Money Line and has made 24.2 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) after two consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. Here is a second system working against Seattle and has produced a 31-14 mark for 69% winners using the money line and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) off 1 or more straight 'overs' this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last three seasons;  7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 against the money line (+9.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; Seattle is just  2-7 against the money line (-8.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Now, we will take a look at the fundamentals that support New England. Based on the overall offensive efficiency grades, Patriots rank 11th and Seattle 13th. However, the Patriots are fourth in the passing game while Seattle is 13th. Running grades see Patriots 9th and Seattle number 1 in the NFL. Obviously with Seattle utilizing the 'read option' offensive scheme you would expect to see them in this position. What I find very revealing is that the Patriots have graded modestly higher in overall defensive efficiency and this is where the game will be won. Seattle certainly has the better pass rush, but this is minimized by Brady's abilities to hit receivers very quickly in space. What the Patriots lack in pass rush, they more than make up in run and coverage defense grades. One of the reasons, the Patriots pass rush grade is not significantly higher is the simple fact that Vince Wilfork is not a QB chaser. Instead he clogs the middle of the line and pushes lineman up into the pocket, which in turn gives little room, if any, for opposing QB to step up and throw down field. This has been highly effective and augments the elite level of play by two of the best ILB in the NFL in Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. They rank second and third respectively in overall grades for their position and are playing at their highest level right now. This defensive unit held the Colts to just 7 points. Then you add the secondary strong play led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung and I can easily see Seattle struggling on offense. Defending the 'read option' requires preparation and position discipline both of which are what the Patriots truly excel at and have done so every season. Now, back to the offensive side and TE Gronkowski is by far the best TE in the NFL season. He is a matchup nightmare and Seattle is very vulnerable in play action and in man coverage. I definitely believe the Patriots will spread the field and have formations with Vareen and Gronkowski individually moving pre-snap in order to get the best matchup. Even in stacked formations with two TE, the Patriots will have ample opportunity to complete passes and move the chains. Take New England.

Now for your prop bets: Brady 'over' 260 1/2 passing yards.

Brady 'over 23 1/2 completions

Blount 'over' 62 1/2 rushing yards.

Total number of players making a pass attempt 'over' 2 1/2 (Need both QB's and either a option pass or a back-up QB to make a pass. 

25* graded play on the Green Bay packers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game set to start at 3:05 PM ET. Last week the Packers essentially escaped with a win over the Dallas Cowboys. Based on my overall gradings, they were the two best offensive units in the NFL. Now, only the Packers, second-best, are left and they have enough fire power to get the job done. When I say they escaped, it has nothing to do with the Dez Bryant 'catch', but rather the poor execution by Green Bay standards overall. Seattle has the best ground attack remaining, but the passing game has been far more important in Conference Championship games in recent years. We saw last week, New England advance with just 14 rushing yards. In fact all four winners in last week's Divisional Round lost the rushing stats. There is a dichotomy with the reasoning that you need defense and a big time ground game to win. However, the truth is that since 1970, when a team out gains the opponent by any margin on a per-pass basis, they have won 74% of the games. Fine tuning this theme, teams that push that margin to more than 2 yards win 90% of the regular season games. That translates to a 505-59 mark. In the post season, teams that post a margin of 2.0 or greater win 92% of the games for an outstanding 22-2 mark since 2010. Three of the top-4 defenses are out of the playoffs with No.1 ranked Denver, No. 2 Baltimore, and No. 4 Detroit all  losing. Third ranked Seattle is the top defense left. Now, the Seattle defense has been inconsistent in stopping the run. This does not mean I am changing my theme. Green Bay will be able to run the play enough for Seattle to respect and then Rogers will have even greater opportunity to connect on vertical routes off play action and in man coverage. On the defensive side, Green Bay has struggled to stop the run. However, they do have the personnel and athleticism to contain Seattle from executing big plays. This means Seattle will post long time consuming drives while Green Bay will have big play striking potential on any down and situation. Rogers is the best overall graded QB in my rankings and by a significant amount over second-best Drew Brees. By comparison, Wilson ranks 13th-best overall and ranks 17th as a passer with a NFL-best run grade. So, I see Rogers dominating this game despite the calf injury and getting the Packers into position to advance to the Super Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Of the total plays made, 44% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. Last, but not least, McCarthy is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of the Green Bay Packers. 

50* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Oregon in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 44* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Broadly speaking, the biggest difference between these two elite programs is the simple fact that Ohio State has a vastly better defense than Oregon. Both teams have played an exact SOS this season so the national rankings are a fair comparison. Oregon ranks 29th in scoring defense (23 PPG), 84th in opponent yards per game (426), 53rd in allowed yards-per-play (5.3), and 75th in third down conversion allowed (42%). Ohio State ranks 19th allowing 22.1 PPG, 11th in yards allowed (333), 11th in allowed yards per play (4.7), and 22nd in third down conversions allowed (35%). Another major factor in this matchup is coaching where Ohio State Head coach Meyer has had 11 experiences at this level while Helfrich is in his first National Championship game. The venue is at Jerry's Palace and the media will be overwhelming. At the College Football level, coaching is monumentally more important in big games, then at the NFL level. The simple fact that the Ohio State players can fully trust everything that Meyer tells his team in order to prepare them cannot be over stated. Here are coaching trends that support Ohio State. Meyer is a solid 39-13 ATS (+24.7 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached; 42-13 ATS (+27.7 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached. Looking at the injury report we see Oho State's Dontre Wilson and Jeff Heuerman as probable. Yet, on the Oregon side of the report, we see two suspensions and several other possible suspensions yet to be confirmed.  This is a clear sign of team distractions and uncertainty in a game where these conditions are magnified greatly. Ohio State QB Cardale Jones may have inexperience, but he is well supported by an excellent offensive line and numerous weapons. He has played in big games already and has posted a QBR of 159 with 7 TD and 1 INT. He is a big strong athletic QB standing 6-5 and weighing 250 pounds. He is bigger than all of the Oregon LB and arguably stronger. So, he is going to very tough to bring down when running in space or using his legs to extend plays. My conclusion is that Ohio State will wear down the smaller Oregon defense in producing long time consuming drives. Let's now take a look at the technical picture. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-32 mark using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 53 units/unit wagered since 1992.  Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has averaged a +292 DOG play. The winning percentage of 48% is irrelevant and the units won is all that truly matters with a powerful Money Line system. This is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and having essentially a 50/50 chance of winning each hand played. However, in this system, a winning hand pays of nearly 3:1 and this reflects the power of identifying DOGS that are projected to cover easily and also has a better than 55% probability of achieving the upset win. Take Ohio State. 

50* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Round set to start at 1:00 PM ET. (Your bonus 25* play is on the Denver Broncos). The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an outstanding shot at winning the winning the game. Given this favorable projection I suggest making this a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Nearly 50% of all of the games played based on the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are some high-powered coaching trends supporting Dallas. Garrett is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game. Last piece of evidence on the technical side is a money line system that has produced a very strong 32-12 mark for 73% winners and averaged a +118 DOG play since 2004. Further, this money line system has gone 5-2 making 4.8 units this season. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after three consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. Based on the overall gradings, the Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL and is a big reason they have gone 8-0 in road games this season. Green Bay grades out at second-best offensive team, but are pass heavy while Dallas has a much more balanced and varied attack. The Dallas offensive line is the best in the NFL. They have an excellent LT in Tyron Smith, who grades in the top-5 at his position in the majority of categories. He will minimize any impact that LB Clay Matthews tries to muster up. I see Mathews being completed dominated by Smith. Perhaps the best player of this elite unit is C Travis Frederick, who grades second-best at his position and a league-leading best in run blocking. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. In order to stop a strong running game, the defense must get penetration up field to disrupt the zone/gap blocking schemes and prevent the OL from getting to the second layer of defense. I don't see Green Bay being able to this without using a safety or DB in the box. The real danger for Green Bay is to blitz gaps where Romo can get the ball out quickly to Witten in space. Then there is WR Dez Bryant, who ranks second-best in his position and has more catches and yards then the rest of the WR on his team combined. Take the Dallas Cowboys. 

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL Divisional playoff action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by 8 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. It has gone 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Nearly half of these plays since 1983 have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Further, Carolina is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons;  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. Rivera is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Carolina has evolved into a very strong team during the second half of the season. The OL will be at full strength with the return of Mike Remmers at RT and withByron Bell at LT. Remmers has had some ups and downs but overall shows vast improvement and stability as he has given up just six hurries and one hit in six games this season and his +3.2 pass blocking grade is encouraging for Carolina. Kelvin Benjamin is a big target with gifted athleticism and I fully expect a huge game from him tonight. Of rookie WR, he ranks second-most with 948 offensive snaps and third in receiving yards with 1,008. He did extremely well against Sherman in Week 8  and this will be the big story should Carolina pull off the upset. His play will be further augmented by the strong running attack led by Jonathon Stewart. Over the last six weeks, he ranks best in the NFL in overall grading with 610 yards and 323 yards after contact. Then on the defensive side, the emergence of safety Tre Boston, who was inserted in the starting lineup in Week 14 has put up some obscene numbers. During this span he has allowed a QB rating of just 13. I also see DT Kawann Short having another huge game in this matchup. During the Panthers winning streak, he recorded 4 sacks in the last 5 games, while getting just 1 sack in the first 12 games. My report would be complete if not mentioning the defensive MVP-type play of Luke Kuechly at LB. It will be loud in Seattle, but Cam Newton has show great leadership and has played in some very big games with significant noise factors in his past. I really like Carolina!

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Let's take a look at a few of the fundamental matchups I see the Patriots having a dominate edge. Of course, a first look at the relationship between Gronk and Brady is huge and overpowering. Gronk is having by far his best season since the 2011 campaign. With a position-leading 1,124 receiving yards on 124 targets he has become a solid target for Brady in any down-and-situation anywhere on the field. He has also proved elusive with 460 yards after the catch ranking third-best at his position. The Ravens secondary has been inconsistent for most of the season, but the emergence of DB Will Hill has put more cohesiveness to this unit.  Hill is the best Ravens DB and I fully expect him to be assigned to Gronk given his size and speed. However, this matchup will then give Brady plenty of opportunities to hit his other reliable weapons in space in man-coverages. Starting with Edelman, who has caught 75% of his targets with 92 catches, then Lafell, then the stable of RB (Vareen, Blount, Bolden, and Gray), the Patriots just have far too many weapons for any defense to contain effectively over 60 minutes. The Patriots OL is not a dominating one and their weaknesses have been shadowed by Brady's quick release (2.34 second) good for fourth quickest in the NFL. This all but eliminates the Ravens pressure schemes as they cannot fall prey to the bubble screens that the Patriots run to near perfection. The screens are what the Patriots OL do best.  The Ravens like to run the ball with power between the tackles and then to attack the perimeter. However, they are matched against one of the best tackles in Vince Wilfork. His ability to glog the middle of the LOS and to push double team situations up the field also negates Flaccos abilities to step up in the pocket and make throws. Brady and the offense get the accolades in the media, but quite frankly the defensive unit is better and has steadily improved over the course of the season. Their LB corp led by Collins and Hightower are among the best in the NFL and the secondary led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung are playing together at elite levels. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2004. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) after scoring nine points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Of the 74 plays made based on the criteria of the system 39% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are several game situations supporting the Patriots noting they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons;  12-3 ATS in home games after having won five or six out of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 10-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last two seasons;  8-1 ATS in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons; 6-0 ATS in home games facing solid offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in games played over the last 2 seasons.   Take the Patriots. 

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Detroit Lion sin NFC Wild Card Playoff action set to start at 4:35 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points. I will start with the fact that Suh is starting since he won his appeal. However, the fact is that he is NOT the best defensive tackle in the game. We have him graded as 5th against the run and 6th against the pass. Further, he has struggled in both categories against well balanced offensive attacks. Dallas is certainly that type of attack and can also light the scoreboard up quickly. Detroit has an excellent safety in Glover Quin, who leads all safeties with seven interceptions and the third-highest pass coverage grade. yet, Dallas with Romo have ben able to attack the defensive perimeter consistently and this forces safeties to 'cheat' to one side anticipating the go route or double move. This will be slanted toward the side of the field that Bryant is on. Bryant has led all WR in several categories since Week 10 including deep passing catching % (79% and 367 yards). I also think that the secondary receivers will have some excellent man coverage opportunities to create space where Romo can deliver the ball quickly and in space. Dallas Guard Zack Martin has steadily been playing at an elite level allowing only 10 QB pressures and ZERO sacks for the season. Last, Romo ranks second-best in the NFL in QBR and is best with 8.52 yards-per-attempt. Then there is the power and elusive running of Murray for the Lions to contend. I just can't see them consistently stopping both over the entire four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 2004.  Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Detroit is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons;  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dallas Cowboys. 

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. This game is set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game. Now, before we get to the nuts and bolts of this play, I'd like to address the Bell situation. He was declared 'OUT" for this game and this is a monumental loss for the Steelers. Normally, there is a second or even third string RB that can get the job done. However, Bell accounted for 77% of the team's rushing ayrds. This mark is second only to Murray, who has accounted for 78.4% of Dallas' rushing yards. The drop off is sizable with undrafted free agent Josh Harris expected to fill the position. Ben Tate is on the depth chart and he was signed by the Steelers this past Tuesday. So, i expect the Steelers to use a RB committee and still to continue to run the ball. So, based on talent alone the loss is huge, BUT remember there are 11 players on each unit. No matter the line, the play here on Baltimore is valid. I fully expect the Ravens to have a solid day on offense. They are projected to gain 6.0 or more yards per play. In past games, they are 5-1 ATS this season and 46-19 ATS since 1992 when they have achieved this level of offensive production. I also see them gaining between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 0-2 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when allowing this range of net passing yards. Now, the Ravens have injuries of their own, but I am confident the OL will be in excellent shape for this matchup. No question, James Hurst is the weakest link on the OL. However, Marshal Yanda is the BEST run blocker at his position in the NFL based on a 34.2 grading and 44 overall grading. In summary, I strongly believe the OL will do a great job in pass and run blocking. On the technical side we see that the Ravens are on a very nice 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Rake Baltimore.

50* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As we did with the 50* GOY winner on NC State, a combination wager is an excellent investment with an excellent risk/reward and total rate of return profile.  So, consider making a 42* play on the line and then add an 8* play using the money line. Let's first look at the technical readings supporting FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) that that is a modest rushing team gaining between 100 to 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RY/G) after 7+ games, and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. I believe the FSU ground attack will be highly successful and will serve to generate a significant advantage in TOP. Clearly, FSU cannot get into a shootout type of game against Oregon. Further, FSU is 1-7 ATS L3 seasons and just 9-44 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent 28 or more points. So, I point that out ONLY because I am extremely confident that Oregon will not score 28 or more points. Note too, that Oregon is a money burning 4-11 against the money line (-12.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992; Additionally, FSU is a very solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992; 12-22 against the money line (-18.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Overall, Oregon is barely in the TOP-50 in defensive efficiency. They rank 52nd allowing 5.2 yards-per-play and 65th in third down conversions allowed (41%). FSU ranks 27th gaining 6.2 yards-per-play and 15th posting a 0.498 points-per-play ratio. Plus, FSU has arguably the best FG kicker in the game in Robert Aguayo, who has connected ton 25 of 27 FG attempted with an enormous leg. It may come down to him and I love FSU's chances with the game on the line for game winning FG. Take Florida State.

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Baylor in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game.  There is certainly conclusive projections from the SIM that MSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are a very strong 8-2 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS L3 seasons when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-20 mark for 73% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has gone 8-1 using the money line and made 7.2 units/unit wagered this season. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MICHIGAN ST) an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system working against Baylor and has gone 35-14 using the money line for 71.4% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BAYLOR) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Getting back to the projections and now using the money line we see that MSU is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;  28-11 against the money line (+20.6 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Take Michigan State.

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game. The return on investment (ROI) is not validated by the current lines. If the line moves to 3 1/2 and a money line above 145, then making a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. Play on any team (ARIZONA) off a loss against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I see Boise State scoring at least 28 points in this game. Arizona is just 2-4 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS L3 seasons, and 22-86 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, they are money burning 2-6 ATS L3 seasons and 12-26 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 offensive yards. Arizona HC Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games facing high-powered offensive teams scoring 37 or more points/game in all games in his coaching career;  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Boise's offense is going to exploit several weaknesses in the Arizona defense. Boise has the ground attack that will wear down the Arizona defensive front and setup excellent play action opportunities in man coverage. Arizona ranks a suspect 66th in the nation allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 120th allowing 278 passing yards per game. Boise's relentless and well balanced offense will dominate the game. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on TCU in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome at Atlanta. I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then consider adding a 5* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game. Much has been made about the so-called chip on the shoulder that TCU has after they feel they were snubbed by Ohio State from playing the 4-team playoff format. Well, my research clearly shows that after this game, they will have no gripe whatsoever. I further believe that such a chip can actually work against a team in this type of situation. Far too much attention and focus is being made of the snub and the need to blowout Mississippi to prove their self-worth, that in the end the focus and attention to the execution of each play is lost. Supporting the 'under' play is a proven system posting a 46-16 mark for 74% winners since 2008. 55% of these plays went 'under' the total by at least 7 points. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OLE MISS) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG in non-conference games. Further, my analysis and SIM projections show a very high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points and that TCU is unlikely to exceed that mark. Mississippi is 6-2 ATS this season and 19-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Further, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. There is a major difference with the SOS played by these two teams and Mississippi has enjoyed the additional time off after playing the brutal West Division of the SEC Conference. TCU has not played a defense like Mississippi that has superior speed, quickness, gap discipline, and athleticism than any other team they faced. You simply cannot simulate game speed in preparation for the Mississippi defense. Freeze is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of Mississippi; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. Take Mississippi.

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on LSU in the Music City Bowl set to start at 3:00 PM ET, December 30, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager by playing a 21.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. I like the change to Malik Zaire as it will undoubtedly lead to greater ball security and more mobility in the picket. I also think the Pistol can be un successfully as well. LSU boasts one of the best defenses in the nation in the majority of statistical measurements. However, the times they were torched it was in the vertical passing game that also served to open up the middle of the field for power running between the tackles and quick slants and 'ins' to TE. This will make an offense that ranked 29th with a 0.441 points-per-play ratio and 16th in passing yards per game significantly more efficient. LSU has struggled on offense and is the dominant reason they did not contend late into the season for a possible SEC Championship berth. They played in the very deep and talented West Division, but at the end of the day it was an offense that ranked 85th in scoring offense and 90th in total offensive production that has led them to the Music City Bowl. Notre Dame has been setting all-time records in scoring and yards allowed in their recent games. Yet, with all of this time to prepare I do see the Notre Dame defense being highly successful against a woeful LSU offense. Moreover, they will be prepared as well for the Les Miles "trickery plays''. The following game situations support my expectations for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is a very strong 10-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Notre Dame.

25* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. This game is being played at the Liberty Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for this game.  WVU is just  2-9 against the money line (-11.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 13-30 against the money line (-27.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 5-18 against the money line (-31.4 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas A&M is a solid 13-3 against the money line (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; 15-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons;  12-3 against the money line (+14.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Further, the added rest for West Virginia has not ended up being a positive factor knowing they are an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-9.4 Units) after a bye week(s) over the last three seasons. Holgorsen is 2-6 against the money line (-14.4 Units) after a bye week as the coach of WVU. In media outlets, the focus has been on the apparent weakness in the A&M defense. Yet, they are not nearly as porr a unit as they would lend you to believe. In fact, they rank 68th in the nation with a 0.376 points-per-play ratio and 30th in opponent red zone scoring. What is confirms is that A&M is a bend and don't break type of defense. They can allow a ton of yards between the 20's, but when in the red zone, the defense has consistent scheme in keeping teams from getting into the end zone. What is even more eye-pooping is that WVU ranks 70th in the nation with a 0.381 points-per-play allowed and 79th in passing yards allowed per game (294). A&M loves to throw the ball and they rank 14th averaging 298 passing yards per game. So, I strongly believe it will be the West Virginia defense that will be under immense pressure to keep A&M from scoring points on almost every drive. Take the Aggies. 

50* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the battle for the AFC North Division with a wide array of playoff implications involved.  I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the Money Line. The simulator shows a high probability that Cincy will win this game. I am going to look first at he technical considerations backing the Bengals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 138-66 ATS mark for 68% winners using the money line since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games and is a strong team winning 60 to 75% or more of their games with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a strong 35-15 making 19 units/unit wagered this season. Bengals are on a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. Lewis is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game as the coach of he Bengals. Conversely, Tomlin has been a money burning 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' as the coach of the Steelers. Brown is having a craeer year and leads all WR in the majority of statistical categories. However, I belevie that the Bengasl have an elite CB in Adam Jones that can contain him. Further, Bengals have arguably one of the best safeties in the NFL with George Iloka. That duo can provide varied looks to disguise coverage and pressure schemes. Granted, the Bengals secondary has been torched at times this season, but in large part because of a lack of pass rush. However, in recent weeks the unit has graded out some of their best efforts led by Geno Atkins, who has a team-high in QB hurries (32). LB Carlos Dunlap will be the man to watch in blitz schemes as he leads the team with 9 QN sacks and adds 32 QB hurries and 19 QB hits.Look for LB Vincent Rey to platoon with other LB and play mostly on early downs and not at all on true passing downs. He has been weak in pass coverage, but leads the team with 84 tackles and 21 assists. Also of significant note, is that I strongly believe it is NOT necessary for Jones to shadow Brown for the entire game. Din't be surprised if other DB Reggie Nelson gets lined up to cover Brown as he actually has the highest pass coverage grade on the team. Pittsburgh defense is certainly NOT the 'steel curtain' and are very vulnerable to the Bengals ground attack in this matchup. The Steeler defensive front is led by Cameron Heyward, who has a tremendous season, but the rest of the group has been largely inconsistent with their play. Steelers are solid in pass rush situations, but are actually quite weak in run stop and pass coverage plays. Dalton will get rid of the ball quickly in long down-and-distance situations. Yet, with the ground game working at a high level, he will enjoy play action with extra time to target Green, who will be in man coverage. As with many games, the game is won in the trenches and I clearly see the Bengals having the overall edge. 

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers in a major NFC North showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using the line and money line comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. I know it has been 23 years since Detroit had success in Lambeau, but this is this year and this Lions team is not your father's Lions team of seasons past. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-23 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play on any team (DETROIT) that is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and after 8+ games have been played in the regular season.  Here is an incredible system supporting the upset and has gone 41-10 for 81% winners since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (DETROIT) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is a strong team winning 60% or more of their games and with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. Rogers is certainly a MVP candidate, but he only criticisms against him is that he has truly struggled against elite defenses, especially those that run 4-3 base with excellent defensive linemen. Rogers struggled against Seattle in Week 1, Detroit Week 3, and posed arguably his worst graded game of his career at Buffalo Week 15. This will be the first game this season where he is at home facing a truly elite defense. The Lions defense is anchored (literally) by DT Ndamukong Suh, who if not for his poor penalties, would be graded as the best DT in the game by a wide margin. Detroit ranks second-best behind only Denver in overall defensive efficiency. Second only behind the Jets in defensive run stop efficiency. So, I do not see any Green Bay ground attack working today and this will force Rogers to win the game with his arm. Of course, he is fully capable of that feat, but not against the defensive front of the Lions who will get pressure on him without the help of constant blitz packages. LB DeAndre Levy will have a huge day. He leads the team with 114 tackles and 75 stops and he will be able to shoot gaps with Suh being double teamed most of the game. Now, on the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have a great opportunity to run the ball early and then use play action to Johnson to stretch the GB defense further over the course of the game. This will also directly give Detroit a significant edge in TOP serving to keep Rogers off the field and to minimize his scoring chances. Take the Detroit Lions.

The Ravens got good news yesterday with three players being selected to the Pro Bowl and earning All-Pro status seasons. Yet, one was extraordinarily special as their first round draft pick C.J. Mosley became the first rookie in Ravens franchise history to earn the All-Pro award. His teammate LB Elvin Dumerville earned his fourth All-Pro award. 

Ravens rank third-best in overall defense efficiency in large part because of the All-Pro play of their linebackers. In addition to Dumerville, the Ravens have two other standout OLB in Suggs and McPhee. Dumerville had a league-high with 19 QB sacks at his position. yet, McPhee led the team with 29 QB hurries and Suggs was second on the team with sacks (13 and hurries (29). Despite the All-Pro award, fellow teammate Daryl Smith is actually the best coverage LB. So, you can easily see how strong and how deep this defensive unit has become this season.

Manziel has been horrid at the NFL level and Hoyer will take over the controls in this game. Cleveland is in disarray to say the least and given the magnitude of the situation, I simply see the Ravens dominating the LOS, forcing turnovers, and creating short filed scoring situations for their offense. 

Ravens QB Flacco had a horrid game last week in Houston, but rarely does he had back-to-back clunkers. He is smart and will not make mistakes that can cost his team field position in this matchup. Take the Ravens. 

I like Washington this week as they host Dallas in an NFC Divisional Matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This game essentially means nothing to Dallas and their current No. 3 seeding as the NFC Champion - unless Detroit and Green Bay end in a tie. I won't delve into the specifics of what happens in the event of a tie for the NFC North Division crown, but it is certainly very unlikely. Further complicating the issue is that game starts at 4:25 PM ET and this one starts at 1:00 PM ET. So, this play is based on Dallas starters playing all four quarters and not that I expect any Dallas starters to be rested. That will obviously aid our cause. 

You may recall I had Washington and predicted they would win the game over Philadelphia Last week. For much of the same reasons, I certainly see Washington staying with in the number. To exploit the possible upset win, I suggest playing a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the Money Line. This is common in my work over the years and simply maximizes the total rate of return (ROI) of your investment in Washington.

WR DeSean Jackson torched his former team last week and it was more than just his box line. He serves to stretch the defense vertically given his elite speed and excellent deep ball catching skills. CB Fletcher was no match for the speed of Jackson. This was most evident when in man coverage and Fletcher playing nearly 10 yards off the LOS, Jackson went on a go-route and blew by him with ease and creating enormous separation and a 55-yard completion with less than 2:00 minute left in the third quarter. Although Dallas' CB are vastly superior to that of the Eagles, respect must be paid to Jackson and his vertical threat. 

Redskins Kerrigan had one of his best games of the season with an amazing 10 QB pressures on Sanchez. I believe he will be a force again this week. Getting pressure on any QB at the NFL level is a sure way to disrupt the rhythm of any offense. 

 Despite all of the negative media attention on RG III, he does rank third best in the NFL with a 79% accuracy percentage. This measure includes all completed passes and dropped ones as well. Last week, he was largely accurate on short, intermediate, and deep throws. 

Technically speaking, Dallas is just 7-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games since 1992; 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. Garrett is a miserable money burning Garrett is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys.

Here is a super system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1983.  Play against road favorites (DALLAS) that are above average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG) and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG and after allowing nine points or less last game. 45% of the game splayed covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past five seasons, this system has gone a sparkling 7-1 ATS. 

Washington catches Dallas in a definite let-down situation after the huge recent wins and NFC East clinching blowout winner over the Colts. I expect RGIII to have another solid game adding even more confusion to the Washington off-season plans. 

25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on USC in the Holiday Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game is being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-13 mark, BUT making 25 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 2004. The average play for this system has been a very impressive +211 DOG. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (NEBRASKA) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. I am seeing lines starting at +225 and going as high as +250 for this play. Further, I am confident that Nebraska will score 28 or more points. In past games, USC is a miserable 1-4 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the L3 seasons, and 15-61 ATS since 1992 when they have yielded 28 or more points. When Nebraska gets the offense rolling and have scored at least 28 in past games, they are 6-3 ATS this season and 112-58 ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska. 

25* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in a great matchup of major Conferences set to to place in the Independence Bowl beginning at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 6 points. Both teams have played a difficult schedule so the rankings and stat comparisons are quite valid. The biggest difference in this game will be the Miami defense that ranks 18th in yards per play allowed and 51st in points-per-play allowed. They have been very strong against the pass this season and this matches up quite well to SC offensive scheme under HC Spurrier. Canes rank 15th allowing just 6.1 yards per pass and 17th allowing 193 passing yards per game. Miami will force far more 3-and-outs and will enjoy a major advantage in TOP. The SC defense just will not be able to stand up to the constant pounding by Miami and the extended periods of time on the field. I also believe that Miami will attack the middle of the field immediately after forcing SC in a 3-and-out or short duration drive. This undoubtedly will wear the SC defense down gradually as the game progresses. I see Miami scoring at least 28 points. In the past they are 15-6 ATS L3 seasons and 92-46 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points. SC is a money burning 2-5 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the L3 seasons, and 20-67 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take the Hurricanes.

25* graded play on Duke as they take on Arizona State in the Sun Bowl taking place at Sun Bowl Stadium in ElPaso Texas and set to start Saturday at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. It has gone 3-1 ATS this season. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. Duke is a very solid 9-2 against the money line (+12.2 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-2 against the money line (+7.4 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 8-15 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 20-24 against the money line (-20.3 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1992. ASU has had a long history of struggling against strong running teams like Duke. They have posted a miserable 11-36 against the money line (-29.4 Units) en facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The strong ground attack is going to be a dominant reason Duke wins this game. The strong ground game then sets up play action where ASU has struggled in man coverage, especially in the middle of the field in underneath or bracket coverage. Duke is a very smart football team as evidenced by ranking 20th best in the nation throwing an INT on only 1.76% of plays and ranking 6th allowing a QB sack on just 3.17% of plays. Take Duke. 

50* graded play on the NC State as they take on UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET, December 26, 2014. NC State played a vastly more difficult schedule this season and I strongly believe their strong ground attack will dominate the UCF defense throughout this game.  NC State ground attack ranks 21st in the nation gaining 5.2 yards per attempt and 37th gaining 201 yards per game. Shadrach Thorton leads the team with 147 attempts, 811 rushing yards, and 9 TD. Wolf Pack QB is second with 110 attempts and 498 yards and 3 TD. Although not spectacular season stats, they have gained 362 rushing yards in a win over Wake Forest and 388 yards in their last game against state-rival UNC. This has been a dramatic shift in their offensive schemes and will be quite difficult for UCF to fully prepare for in this matchup. Further, the UNC air attack has strong enough that UCF must respect the presence of play action as well. Bo Hones leads the team with 42 receptions and 537 receiving yards. Yet, it is TE David Grinnage, who I believe will have a big day off of these play action pass situations. He is an excellent run blocker, BUT at 6-5 and 270 pounds is a huge target in open space. He has 24 grabs and 5 TD on the season. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by 10 or more points. The public has steadily bet UCF and I do see the possibility of this climbing from a current level of 2 points to possibly 3 by game time. Normally, I would suggest a combination wager with a DOG. However, unless the line climbs to 3 1/2 the combination wager does not produce enough (ROI) to be valid. So, if it does get to 3 1/2 or higher, then a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line would be valid. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) with a solid offense gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. We already know NC State had a huge game winning 35-7 over rival UNC and easily covered as a 6 1/2 point dogs. Take North Carolina State.

25* graded play Central Michigan as they take on Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at Noon Christmas Eve. I want to take this moment to wish every the best Christmas possible and best wishes for the New Year. I greatly appreciate your loyal support of my plays as it obviously has supported my family over the 18 years I have been here on Vegas Experts. The simulator shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. The public is starting to bet WKU and I believe the line will go to 3 1/2 points. This is important as at that level a combination wager produces a very good return on investment (ROI). So, if you are able to get 3 1/2 , the consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. CMU has some very strong historical trends backing them. They are a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. since 1992;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing poor rushing defenses allowing >=200 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing weaker defensive teams allowing >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. CMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Based on the matchup projections I see CMU gaining at least 5.5 yards per play. In games played where they have attained this benchmark they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I also believe that CMU will score 28 or more points. They are a quite strong 12-5 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. Take Central Michigan.

25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium  set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome I see in this matchup. Marshall is 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 300 or more rushing yards; 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for more than 6.0 yards per attempt; 13-4 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when they outgained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play. Northern Illinois is just 2-9 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 28 or more points. On the injury front, the news that Marshall RB Devon Johnson has been upgraded to probable is a significant plus for them. SOS is nearly equal with NIU having only a modest tougher schedule. So, the statistical rankings are comparable and show Marshall to be a vastly superior team. Marshall ranks 5th in scoring offense while NIU ranks 47th and more than 14 points less per game. The Marshall defense ranks 24th allowing 22 PPG while NIU defense ranks 46th allowing 25.3 PPG. NIU runs the ball 63% of the time, which is the 16th highest in the nation. They rank 16th in rushing yards, 13th in rushes per game (47), 24th in yards per rush (5.1). Although NIU doesn't pass that often, when they do they connect on a 60% completion percentage. This combo of run/pass is what has made NIU a very tough to beat in their conference. However, Marshall has elite coverage CB and LB, who also maintain excellent gap discipline. This combo will most assuredly disrupt NIU offense and their ability to move the chains and produce drives ending in scores. This game will not be about how many sacks or interceptions Marshall produces, but rather how many times they force NIU into third and long situations. Take Marshall.

50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a major AFC showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The stakes are very high for both teams as they look to solidify their best possible playoff position. Looks to be in favor of the Broncos though as the simulator shows a high probability that they will win this game by 8 or more points. Here are some simple game situations that support the Bengals in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark since 1983. Play on favorites (DENVER) off a win against a division rival and playing the next game on Monday night. This system has covered the spread by 7 or more points in 50% of all of the plays made based on the criteria of the system. The following expectations I have for the outcome of this game match the game situations. Bengals are a miserable 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 11-25 ATS when they have been outgained by 1.0 to 1.5 yards per play since 1992. Denver is 6-2 ATS this season and 13-4 L3 seasons when they have allowed 15 to 21 points; 3-0 ATS this season and 11-3 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards; 8-1 ATS when the rush for 4.0 to 4.5 rushing yards in games played over the L3 seasons; 19-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained more than 400 offensive yards. Denver possesses the fifth best offensive grade behind leading Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. This is a measure of a teams overall offensive efficiency. In the last four weeks the Broncos have gone to the run game behind a very talented RB in Anderson and it has had a negative impact on manning's Personal stats. Yet, he could care less about that and all about the team getting to the Super Bowl. This has directly led to an improved TOP and the defense has responded in kind. Of the teams mentioned above, the Broncos are the only team with solid positive grades on overall defensive efficiency. So, Manning calls his own plays at the LOS and the emergence of the ground attack has led to the entire Bronco team getting significantly better. In fact, the Denver defense ranks best in overall defensive efficiency led by a vastly under rated run defense. The inability of the Bengals to establish a ground attack tonight will be a dominant reason the Broncos win this game. Take Denver.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Green Bay in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I played against the Packers last week and also correctly called the upset win by Buffalo. The probability of a Bucs upset is far less likely than that presented in the Buffalo game, BUT adding a 3* play using the Money Line is an excellent 'just in case' bet. It is hard to believe that Green Bay is the 6th team and last playoff team 'IN' right now. They and several other teams were given a Christmas gift by the Eagles in their loss (25* winner) to Washington. Yet, they still need to win to ensure they earn a playoff berth today. Detroit is NFC North leader (Wins tie break over Green Bay based on head-to-head win percentage.) and enjoys tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games. Rogers will have a better game than last week's anomaly, but it is the Tampa offense that I believe could have one of their best games of the season. Packers defense ranks 27th allowing 128 rushing yards per game, 16th  allowing 238 passing yards, and just 26th in sack percentage at 6.05%. Look for Mike Evans to continue his stellar rookie season where he  has posted a position-leading 7 TD on deep thrown passes this season. Stretching the Packers defense has been the offensive template needed to defeat them in recent weeks. Take the Bucs.

I like the Washington Redskins plus the points in their NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles set to start Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The Eagles loss at home to Dallas was essentially a double loss. They lost the Division lead to the Cowboys and now stand on the outside of the playoffs looking in at them. They do not possess one tie-breaker of the current playoff teams should there be a time at the end of the season. Obviously a loss here would almost seal their unfortunate fate of not being the post season. 

In the first time against Washington, there was a blind side hit on QB Nick Foles that sparked a fourth quarter brawl. The media would lead you to believe that this event is a highly motivating factor for the Eagles to seek revenge and simply blow the Redskins out. The better point here is that the Eagles have played TWO very physical games against Seattle and Dallas and I question how much fuel is left in the tank for this game. Further, being that is the dysfunctional Redskin as the opponent is going to make it very difficult for the coaching staff to get their units fully focused. The Eagles certainly know their fate lies in winning, but getting the job done could be a monumental task in Landover, MD.

The Eagles defense has held up well this season, but they are now showing immense fatigue in the second 30-minutes of recent games. The fact is that the Eagles offense when working scores quickly and their drives to not result in a time-of-possession edge. This has forced the Eagles defense to be on the field far more than the majority of other units in the NFL. The Eagles rank dead last in the NFL with the Eagles defense playing better than 56% of the time. 

Overall, the Eagles rank 8th in my overall defensive rankings. However, that is in large part because of the early season success on special teams. That advantage as been all, but eliminated by opponents, who simply know to prepare for those aggressive plays. Factoring out that special team impact, the Eagles grade out at number 26th in the NFL. 

I also cannot trust the Eagles offense that has not played well in the last two weeks against elite opponents. Granted, Washington's pass defense is one of the worst, but they offset that with a strong pass rush. As we saw the in last two games, getting into Sanchez's face was a critical part in his failure to have time to throw the ball to the correct WR. Washington has their own elite DE in Jason Hatcher, who grades 8th best in his position. He ranks third-best in sacks and QB hurries. He also grades second best in defending the run. 

The Eagles will most assuredly use a TE in starter Ertz or back-up Celek to help block him on pass situations. That added protection will give Sanchez a bit more time, but it eliminates another target for pass routes. This takes pressure of the Washington secondary and will allow them to play more bracket coverage than man coverage. In sum, this scheme will make it more difficult for Sanchez to make throws and move the chains. 

The Eagles offense attacks the perimeter of defenses and spreads them out across the field. This in turn opens up the inside of the field for easy run and catch passes. However, Washington has some of the best OLB in the NFL led by Kerrigan, Murphy, and Orakpo. Kerrigan is second at his position with 38 QB hurries and has added 12 sacks. All three grade positive for the season and are fully able to disrupt the timing of the Eagles WR with solid coverage. 

Former Eagle WR and now No. 1 Washington WR DeSean Jackson is obviously looking to have a big game. Yet, he brings a whole lot more to this matchup that will not show in the box score. His ability to stretch the field opens up more room in the middle of the field and also will enable Alfred Morris to have a strong day between the tackles. He is averaging a strong7.5 yards after the catch. The Eagle have been prone to missed tackles in recent weeks. This is a significant advantage for Washington to get the ball to Jackson in space where he can use his athleticism to make plays down the field. 

Looking at the technical side of this matchup we see that the Eagles have been a money burning  3-12 ATS in road games when facing struggling teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game in games played only in the second half of each season since 1992. Redskins are a very strong 17-4 ATS facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games of each season since 1992. Home losses are tough for the majority of the NFL teams to overcome and the Eagles are no different sporting an imperfect 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last three seasons. 

The following game situations match my projections for this game. Eagles are just 4-14 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 4-11 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 22 to 28 points.

Take the Washington Redskins. 

25* graded play on the Nevada Wolf Pack as they take on Ul-Lafayette in the first scheduled bowl game of the 2014-2015 post season set to start at 11:00 AM. The simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game by four or more points. The following game situations match my projections for the outcomes within this game. Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play; 12-2 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards. Further, Nevada is the third best team in the nation in red zone scoring at 94%. ULL runs the ball far more than they pass it. Their ground attack ranks 25th gaining 228 rushing yards per game. Nevada's defensive personnel are much better than advertised at run stop and many of the players have positive grades over several of the recent games. Last, Nevada played a monumentally more difficult schedule this season. When adjusting for the SOS, Nevada is significantly better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage is on offense with their passing attack, especially in play action. Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo has quietly been one of the most dynamic players in college football over the past couple of seasons. He has a 123 QBR and has completed 60% of his passes for 2370 yards and 18 TD. He has spread the ball around significantly led by Jerico Richardson (53, 626), Hasaan Henderson (45, 579), Richy Turner (57, 537), and TE Jared Gipson (32, 282). LLU cannot double team any one of these receivers as Fajardo will check off the double team and find the best target. Take Nevada. 

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Tennessee Titans in NFL Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Not sure, who in the NFL scheduling department came up with this matchup as even before the season started the expectations of these two teams was quite limited. Bortles had his second best career start in the first meeting of these two teams. In fact, he has career-best QB rating of 89 and completions with 32. The Tennessee secondary is a complete mess. Jason McCourty has taken a step back, already charged with allowing over 1,000 receiving yards. Blidi Wreh-Wilson hasn’t been any better, but a trip to I.R. means that Coty Sensabaugh will be seeing full-time duty yet again this week. Sensabaugh has held up reasonably well in coverage, though it has to be concerning that he’s missed nine tackles on the season and that over half of the receiving yardage he’s allowed has been after the catch. JAX has struggled to run the ball, but the Tennessee defensive front has made second and third string RB look like All-Pro candidates. Running the ball with Gerhart will set up Bortles in play action to complete passes in man coverage. Further, Bortles will enjoy more opportunity to extend plays with his legs tonight. For the fantasy player looking for that diamond in the rough, Marquis Lee is set for a huge night. Based on the projections the following game situations are validated. In past games over the L3 seasons, Tennessee is 1-5 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained between 300 and 350 offensive yards. Whisenhunt is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of the Titans; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing poor defensive teams allowing >=350 yards/game. Take Jacksonville.

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they host the San Francisco 49ers in NFC West Divisional matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 13 or more points. The Harbaugh era is all but done in SF and all that remains is the completion of the remaining three games. The locker room is not in good shape to say the least and one can only wonder how negative it has become in recent weeks. Losing to the Raiders last week is a clear case in point that the fight is removed from the 49ers character. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. San Fran is 0-5 ATS L3 seasons and 8-40 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150+ rushing yards. Seattle is 7-1 ATS when they gain 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons; 12-4 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points L3 seasons; 13-4 ATS when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards L3 seasons. Collin Kaepernick is 0-6 ATS facing Seattle and 0-3 ATS at Seattle. Russell Wilson is a solid 14-7 ATS as a home favorite and 14-4 ATS in games lined with a total between 34 1/2 to 41 1/2 points L5 seasons. Lynch will have a big day in this matchup. He grades third best back in the NFL in our database and leads the NFL in missed tackled with 68. That's 10 more than second-best Murray of the Cowboys. Wilson leads the NFL in average time to throw at 3.22 seconds per drop back. This is the added weapon that will give Wilson ample tim eot throw in play action throughout this game. The San Fran secondary has been largely inconsistent starting with the LB. The DL depth is extraordinarily weak and Seattle will set up plays based on the personnel and optimize each down and distance. Take Seattle. 

Baltimore won the Super Bowl in 2012 and they are beginning another playoff run similar to that season. It's hard to imagine the ONLY team in the NFL that ranks in the top quarter on both sides of the ball flying under the radar, but that is exactly the case. On offense Ravens rank in the top-10 in scoring offense, points-per-play, yards-per-game, third-down conversion percentage, and rushing yards per game. Flacco is having a career best season in many categories. He has the best supporting cast of any team in his career as well. He has career bests in completion percentage (64%), passing yards per game (251), sack rate (3.5 percent), passer rating (94.5), and total QBR (73.1). 

Last season, the Ravens had arguably the worst ground game in the NFL with a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush. Now under the emergence of Justin Forsett the Ravens rank fifth in the NFL gaining an average of 136 rushing yards per game. Forsett leads all running backs gaining 5.6 per carry and is third in total rushing yards. This solid ground game has allowed the Ravens WR ample opportunities to make plays in man coverage. Torrey Smith has caught seven TD in his last seven games and Steve Smith has 889 receiving yards. 

The real source of the offensive success is found on the interior line led by RG Marshal Yanda and LG Kelechi Osemele. The Center position was a very weak spot on this OL last season. Jeremy has solidified and brought consistent execution to that position this season. He ahs been especially excellent in run block assignments. Further, Yanda grades as the best offensive lineman in the NFL and Osemele ranks second-best in his position. As has always been th ecase, 'ahead' of every great running back is an even better OL.

One of the best linebacker corps in the NFL is the driving force behind the Ravens success that has put them sixth in scoring defense (19.6 PPG), eighth in points-per-play allowed (0.310), fourth in rushing yards allowed (84.5), and 10th in sack percentage (7.1%). At outside linebacker, Elvis Dumervil has a league high with 16 sacks and has been playing at an elite level against the run. However, he may not be even the vest defensive player. That is because Terrell Suggs at age 32 is having a rebirth this season. The other OLB, Pernell McPhee leads the NFL with 17 quarterback hits. 

The inside linebackers are led by former Jacksonville player Daryl Smith. He spent the first nine seasons of his career with Jacksonvillle and Baltimore got a great pickup in the off season. He was on eof the top ILB in the NFL last season, but his play has elevated higher and remains one of the most versatile LB in the NFL. He is fully capable of tight coverage, excellent against the run, and has a quick first step in blitz situations. His ILB teammate is rookie C.J. Mosley, who leads the NFL in total tackles by all LB. 

As expected, the special teams are at the top of the NFL again this year. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh started his brilliant career as a special teams coach and his attention to detail in the unit has paid off huge dividends. Justin Ticker is looking to have back-to-back first team All-Pro seasons. he has made 21 of 21 kicks inside of 50 yards and is 4 of 7 form beyond 50 yards with misses from 55, 57, and 64 yards. 

These two units will be going against a Jacksonville team that ranks near the bottom in the majority of statistic al categories and metrics on both sides of the ball. Jags rank last in the league scoring 15.3 PPG and points per play (0.245) just to mention a few of the categories. On defense they rank 29th in scoring defense (27.4 PPG), 28th in rushing yards (133). On the bright side the Jags rank fourth in the league in sack percentage (8.12%). However, as already detailed, they will be going up against an OL line that is arguably the best in the league. So, for a multitude of reasons, I see this matchup heavily favored in Baltimore's side of the ledger. 

Technically, the following game situations match my projections for the outcome of this game. Jacksonville is 0-15 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards over the past three seasons. Further, they are a money burning 2-11 ATS when they have allowed 6 or more total yards per play in game splayed over the last three seasons. 

Baltimore is a stellar 6-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the last three seasons when gaining more than 125 rushing yards. When gain between 150 and 175 rushing yards, the Ravens are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS the past three seasons. 

Take Baltimore. 

I like taking the Buffalo Bills plus the points when they host the Green Bay Packers starting at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 14. This may appear to be a bit surprising or even shocking to some of you, but I have made a long career of feasting on live dogs against unsuspecting favorites. Of course, there are solid reasons based on extensive research for these plays so let's take a look at the matchups. 

This is a matchup offensive strength versus defensive strength. Packers rank best in the NFL scoring 32.5 PPG, points per play (0.529), yards per play (6.3), and TD's per game (3.9). Buffalo counters this offensive attack sporting the fourth best scoring defense (18.5 PPG), fifth in opponent yards allowed (312), fourth in points per play allowed (0.291), fourth in opponent yards per play allowed (4.9), and third in TD's allowed (1.9). 

Green Bay's QB Aaron Rogers is having an MVP type season and on mnay occasions makes the game look quite simple to execute. However, he is going to be tested in this matchup. Buffalo is one of the best passing defenses in the NFL ranking sixth in opponent yards per pass (6.1), fifth in passing yards allowed (213), second in interception percentage (3.78%), and best in sack percentage (9.64%)

Buffalo plays a 4-3 defense and is led my DE Mario Williams, who is graded as third best DE in the NFL. He has been incredible against the run, but has strong passing rush statistics as well. In 659 snaps played, he is the NFL sack leader (13), and has 29 QB hurries and seven QB hits on the season. DT Marcell Dareus ranks fourth best at his position overall and the NFL best 10 sacks for 4-3 tackles. The other DT is Kyle Williams, who is also playing at an elite level, has seven QB sacks, 11 QB hurries, and 23 QB hits on the season. They don't get the national media attention, but this front four are an absolute terror to OL and OC coaches.

At the LB position, the Bills have one of the best coverage defenders in the NFL in Preston Brown. at the other OLB is Nigel Bradham, who has been among the best at his position against the run and is above average in coverage situations. So,m through two layers, the Buffalo defense is quite strong with few, if any, holes for an OC to plan to exploit. 

Buffalo has very good CB too and are led by Corey Graham, who grades sixth best in the NFL. He is in very good company on that list, which is led by Seahawks Therold Simon, Colts, Vontae Davis, Rams Trumaine Johnson, Seahawks Richard Shermon, and Broncos Chris Harris, JR. Further, Graham is a great open field tackler and has missed just three tackles in 45 opportunities this season.  

Now, it is not logical to expect Buffalo to completely shutdown a Rogers led offensive attack. However, the unit as a whole will be a formidable force that will make it far more difficult for Rogers and his weapons to make plays and move the chains. 

Looking at the technical considerations we see that Buffalo has been a resilient team in past seasons. They have a posted a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a road loss over the last three seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills. 

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. I also like the 'OVER' for a 15* graded play. As an option, you can consider making a parlay bet in one of two ways. In situations liek this, I like using the action reverse parlay instead of a generic 2-team parlay. In a reverse, you get a 4:1 payout, but also assume a substantial more risk. For example, if you would wager $200 on the parlay using action revers, then if both hit you win 800, however, if one loses and one wins your loss would be 240 (20% vig at most windows. There are some that do charge just 10%). If both lose, then the loss if 480 on the 200 reverse parlay. I am confident enough in these situations that there is a far better chance of going 2-0 than 0-2. No guarantee of course, but track record support this confidence. Worst case is I do split. So, if we presume the Falcons cover, lose the total, lose the reverse, we will still be making a few extra coins. I wouldn't be outlining this opportunity if I didn't feel quite strongly and confident. Yet, as i ALWAYS have stated now for 20 seasons, please use discipline and never go 'All in" on any situation, especially if you are looking to recover from a losing weekend.  The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and that more than 56 points will be scored. I simply see this is a shootout and find it easy to see both teams scoring 28 points. In past games over the L3 seasons GB is a stellar 20-1 'over' when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2003.  Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games with this game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a perfect 11-0 over the past five seasons. The best matchup i see is that Rogers will have to go to other Packer WR instead of his stud Jory Nelson, who will be covered by one of the best CB in the league. Desmond Trufant ranks 6th best in the NFL in overall performance and 7th best coverage performance grade. Quarterbacks have a 79.2 quarterback rating when throwing into Trufant’s coverage. Matt Ryan ranks 4th best QN in pass accuracy rating at 77% and has many weapons at his disposal. Further, the rise of Falcons NT Jonathan Babnineaux is going to make it more difficult for the Packers to run between the tackles. I see this game tonight as a complete shootout in the passing game with the possibility of 'last team with the ball' having a great chance to win. Take the Falcons for a 25* play and 'over' for a 15* play. Do not exceed more than a 2* play if using the action reverse parlay. Good luck to us!

I like the Patriots to bounce back from their loss at Lambeau and defeat the San Diego Chargers. Despite the loss, the Patriots have solid control on gaining the best record in the Conference and home field advantage in the playoffs. There simply s not a better prepared team in the NFL. Belichick and his staff essentially recreate their schemes to exploit the opponents weaknesses and to minimize and almost eliminate an opponent's strengths. 

New England has the 19th easiest most difficult SOS down the stretch. In addition to San Diego, they will play Miami, New York Jets, and end the season home against Buffalo. Winning out is certainly the plan for this team as they begin to peak for another Super Bowl run. Denver can win ought as well having the 16th strongest schedule down the stretch. They host Buffalo this week, then play at San Diego, away at Cincinnati, and finish home versus Oakland. So, New England is fully aware that any loss could bring about monumental damage to hosting the Conference Championship game. 

The vast difference between these two teams is New England's offense that ranks third in scoring and second in points-per-play with a 0.466 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers offense ranks 14th in scoring and 13th in points-per-play with a 0.373 ratio. Patriots rank 13th in scoring defense and 11th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.322 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers defense ranks 12th in scoring defense, but 15th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.341 ratio. 

It appears based on the flash stats that the Chargers have a viable passing defense. However, this is misleading as most teams have exploited their below average run defense, specially in the second half of previous games. Enter the three-headed ground attack of the Patriots led by multi-purpose back Vareen, elusive power runner Jonas Gray, and the rejuvenated power runner of Blount. 

I don't see San Diego being able to stop or even contain the ground attack and this will force them to bring a safety up to the LOS for run help.  San Diego has allowed 107 or more rushing yards in six of the last seven games. The only team not to gain more than 107 yards was the highly anemic ground attack of the Oakland Raiders. When this happens Brady will go to work using play action to get extra time to find the best matchups in man coverage. As we have witnessed, Gronkowski has been huge in play action, but Brady will target the correct matchup on the field and fire strikes to any receiver involved in the play.  

The Patriots OL is playing at an elite level and rank 2nd in QB sacks allowing a sack on only 3.55% of the snaps. Brady has benefitted from this great protection by throwing an interception on just 1.30% of his pass attempts good for second best in the NFL. Brady has gotten the ball out within 2.75 seconds in blitz situations using quick slants, outs, ins, and bubble screens to a wide array of receivers. So, it is just not possible for any defense to minimize an obvious strength on the Patriots offense. 

Looking at the technical side of this game we see that the Patriots are on a very nice  6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive losses in games played over the last two seasons. Chargers are off an emotional and physical come from behind 34-33 win at Baltimore. However, they are just  0-6 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in game splayed over the last three seasons. 

Take the Patriots

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a major showdown of NFL heavyweights set to start at 4:25 PM ET. When you take a look at the dominating wins by the Eagles, they have done so with immense pressure up the gut and getting pressure on the QB within 2 seconds. However, these schemes worked well against looking record teams most notably the NY Giants. Now, the pressure has to not only get through the OL, but also track down one of the most mobile QB in the NFL. Conner Barwin and Trent Cole combined are near the top of the NFL in pass rush efficiency grades. Yet, this duo and the Eagles defensive front will be competing arguably the BEST OL they have seen to date. There are just three tackles that have not allowed a sack and Seattle one of them in Okung. The other two are Andrew Whitworth and Lane Johnson). Further, the return of LB Wagner has made the Seattle defense incredibly fast and very physical. As a group the Seattle defense has graded tops in the majority of areas since Week 8. I am confident that the Eagles defense will be forced to play slower and that Seattle will play bump at the LOS on nearly every possible target. Back to the offensive side of the ball, I am confident that Lynch will have more than 100 yards on the ground and will be a factor in bubble screens and quick hits out of the backfield. These both will limit the amount of pressure Philadelphia can bring and will allow Russell even more time in the pocket off play action. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 2003.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. The following game situations match my expectations for this game. Seattle is a strong 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 5.5 to 6.0 net yards per play; 16-8 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for 125 or more yards; 13-4 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards. Take Seattle for a 25* Titan play. Your added pair of 15* Titan totals are 'OVER' Miami-Baltimore and 15* 'UNDER' Patriots-Chargers. 

St. Louis had a historic last game defeating the Oakland Raiders 52-0. However, that does count only as 1 win and they will struggle in this matchup against the Washington Redskins. Generally, we have seen teams in all sports produce incredible levels of elite performance, which is simply unsustainable. It also works in very poor performance situations as well where their is a strong propensity for teams to rebound at perform closer to their average output in the next game. In some cases the performances can move vastly beyond the respective team averages and this is the case for this matchup. I see Washing producing above their season norm and St. Louis significantly below. 

The simulator reveals that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at getting a home win. Supporting this graded 25* Titan is a strong money making system that has gone 39-15 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. 45% of these covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my expectations that Washington will win. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) after three or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% playing a losing record team. This system reflects the under performance tendencies of losing record teams after a sustained period of above average trend performance. 

I definitely see Alfred Morris and the Washington ground attack have consistent success in this matchup. This will open up play action situations for QB McCoy to execute in high percentage situations. The best matchup I see is hitting TE Jordan Reed in slants and seem routes on play action. 

Reed had his best overall complete game of the season, catching nine balls on 11 targets for 123 yards, including 70 yards-after-the-catch. McCoy had a meteoric 113.3 QB Rating when throwing his way. He also forced two missed tackles on the day. There was one big play where the Colts made the mistake of putting a LB on him in man coverage and Reed caught a 30-yard pass and catch right down the seem. You can be assured that McCoy will be looking to get that man coverage matchup often in this game. 

Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in a critical AFC matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites (MIAMI) and is a solid offensive team scoring 23 to 27 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8 or more games have been played and after a win by 6 or less points. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for the outcome of this game. Miami is a perfect 5-0 L3 seasons when allowing 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 4.5 to 5.0 rushing yards per attempt; 12-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 22 to 28 points; 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. A key matchup I see favoring the Dolphins is their DE Cameron Wake going up against RT Ricky Wagner. Since entering the league in 2009, Wake has always finished in the Top 3 in terms of pass rush grade at his position and currently owns the best rush grade of all 4-3 defensive ends. Wake has certainly caused his fair share of issues to opposing quarterbacks, accumulating 51 total pressures and a Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) of 12.1, tied for fifth among all 4-3 defensive ends that have played a minimum of 132 passing snaps. Wagner may need periodic help to contain Wake from a RB or even a TE, which reduces Flaccos downfield receivers. This also allows Miami to be more creative with their zone blitz pre-snap looks. On the other side of the ball, I really like the power running of Lamar Miller. The Dolphins do run the ball effectively between the tackles. Miller has had 90 attempts between the tackles and 60 running outside the tackles. Although Miami is coming off a short week win against the Jets, the Ravens are still reeling from a crushing defeat blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead. Take Miami.

50* graded play on Boise State as they take on Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game set to start at 10:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by 27 or more points. It is rare that I get down on a double digit favorite, but when I do it is valid across the board. This game is major mismatch. Under the new College Football Playoff system, the highest-ranked conference champion from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American, American Athletic and Conference USA plays in the either Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl on Jan. 1. So, knowing the outcome a win produces for this team is a huge motivator. I strongly believe that the coaching staff is using this tool to refocus their players on the opponent. That is ironic, but in many thing sin life, knowing the reward ahead of completing the task can be a huge and powerful force. Fresno is improved since the beginning of the season and have earned their way to this game. However, they simply do not have the defensive presence nor depth in personnel to contain a strong Boise offense for four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 36-11 ATS and 77% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 50% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has produced a 35-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) that is an elite offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game and after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. It's a statistical variation of the first system, but still reinforces my belief that Boise will cover easily. Given the matchups, it is a near certainty that Boise will score 28 or more points. In past games, FSU is 1-5 ATS this seasons when allowing 28+ points. Further, they are 0-4 ATS this season and 8-28 ATS since 1996 when they have been outgained by 2.0 yards per play. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game starting at 8:17 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 9 or more points. If the third string QB situation isn't bad enough for OSU, they still have defend one of the best ground attacks in the nation. Melvin Gordon is having a Heismann year gaining 2260 yards and averaging 8.0 YPC and 26 TD. He also has three receiving scores on 17 catches. Corey Clement  has 830 rushing yards and 6.5 YPC with 10 receptions and a 1 TD. I see the OSU defensive front steadily getting worn down over the course of the game. This style of play will also allow Wisconsin to control the tempo of the game and gain a sizable advantage in TOP. Wisconsin is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) facing strong offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons. OSU under the leadership of Myer is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 6.0+ rushing yards per carry; 18-4 ATS L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. Take Wisconsin. 

25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 8 or more points. Seriously folks. Whether you are a fan or hater of the FSU football program, no one can argue the injustice served by the playoff committee in having TCU jump over them in the rankings. How can a well educated panel put a team that has 28 straight wins and a superior SOS to a 1-loss TCU squad. So, this has to be the BEST bulletin board material possible for the FSU team and I fully expect them to come and finally play 4 strong quarters and destroy Georgia Tech. I see FSU scoring a minimum of 28 points. In past games, G-Tech is a money burning 2-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons when allowing 28+ or more points. Moreover, they are 0-4 ATS L3 seasons and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when allowing 25 to 41 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 mark for 92% winners using the money line 1992. Play on neutral field favorites using the money line (FLORIDA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. I am seeing -180 on the money line ands if you are a money line player, I see no reason not to take the plunge. I would suggest making a risk play though where you wager $2500 to win $1400 if you prefer the money line strategy. I am making this play using the line. We all know G-tech has a very strong ground attack, but they have not played against a defense with the speed, quickness, and athleticism of FSU. Defending the read-option and triple option ground attacks requires gap discipline and solid angles in pursuit. Both I see FSU possessing and being able to execute well. Further, I also believe that FSU will be able to get Tech into much longer third down situations, which allows FSU to give Tech different and varying looks pre snap. Tech ranks best in the nation converting third downs and is in large part because they get into a majority of third-and-short situations. FSU will not allow that to happen. Tech is very vulnerable to the FSU passing attack and this is the area where I feel FSU could get out to an rare two or three score lead in the first half. Take Florida State. 

25* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 points. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball. Truly, the only factor standing in the way of a Sooner cover is by them making mistakes that would provide State with a short field.  Sooner offense ranks 11th in the nation in scoring offense, 16th in yards-per-game, 10th in points-per-play, 9th in yards-per-play, 8th in rushing yards per game, and best allowing a sack on just 1.78% of the plays run. Cowboy defense ranks a terrible 93th in scoring defense, 93rd in yards allowed, 83rd in yards-per-play, 50th in rushing yards allowed, and 124th in passing yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, I see a Sooner defense that will dominate the Cowboy offense. Cowboys have struggled all season and rank just 84th in scoring offense, 103 in yards-per-game, 102nd in yards-per-play, 103rd in rushing yards, and 62nd in passing yards. Sooner defense ranks a solid 33rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards-per-play, 9th in rushing yards allowed. Sooners can easily force Cowboys to try and move the chains through the air and I expect Sooner defense to make plays and produce several turnovers. I certainly see the Sooner offense scoring 28 or more points. Note that Cowboys are just 5-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28+ points and are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 35 to 42 points. I also believe that Sooner ground attack will gain around 300 yards. In past games, Cowboys are 5-16 ATS since 1992 when allowing >6.0 yards per rush. Sooners are 8-1 ATS L3 seasons and 23-7 ATS since 1992 when gaining >6.0 yards per rush; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when gaining >6.5 yards-per-play L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (OKLAHOMA) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take the Oklahoma Sooners.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Cowboys will win this game by 8 or more points. Dallas has sizable advantages on both sides of the ball. Statistically they have produced significantly better results in yards/play, points/play, rush percentage, Completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, and red zone scoring percentage. DeMarco Murray is having a career year and leads the NFL with 1427 yards. Le'Veon Bell is a distance second with 1046 yards gained on the season. Murray's ground game will be a dominant factor in Dallas winning this game easily. Last week, Dallas got hammered by the Eagles. With 10:00 in the first quarter and Dallas driving for a score, Romo had room to move up in the pocket, but fell to the first 'fell' of pressure. I believe this is a sure sign that he is still not pain free from his back fractures. However, against Chicago, he will have far better protection and has had a full week of rest and preparation too. One of the lone bright spots on Dallas’ defense with a sack-fumble on Mark Sanchez early in the second quarter. Crawford was a general nuisance in run defense for the rest of the game, doing his best to slow the opposing run game when the Eagles ran his way. Against the Bears, he will have the support of the rest of the defensive unit. Cutler and Forte will struggle to keep th echains moving in what is a 'must win' game for the Cowboys. In fact, if the season ended last week they would have NOT made the playoffs. Dallas has the fourth easiest schedule down the stretch and they have an excellent shot at going 3-1 or even 4-0 over this stretch. They host the Colts and their hardest win owuld come in a revenge situation against Philadelphia next Sunday. First thing is to take care of a vastly weaker opponent. Despite the poor game by Romo last week, he ranks 3rd in the NFL in QBR behind leader Aaron Rogers and Manning.  Fourth place is held by Andrew Luck so those are some very good names to be associated with and I strongly believe he will lead his team to a big double digit point win. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. Chicago has been a money burning 0-2 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points; 0-2 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt; 1-6 ATS this season when allowing 6.0+ yards per play. Bears are an imperfect  0-8 ATS after having won two out of their last three games over the last two seasons. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on UCF as they take on ECU in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN/Watch ESPN media outlets.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Clearly a matchup of ECU offensive strength against UCF defensive strength. I strongly believe that the UCF defense will win the battle at the LOS. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. UCF is on a very nice run posting a perfect 9-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons. ECU is a money burning  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Take UCF. 

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field starting at 4:25 PM ET. This easily could be a preview of the Super Bowl. I'll make this simple. Majority of teams reinvent themselves somewhat every season, but the Patriots have done nearly every single week featuring a new found offensive weapon that most have never heard of till that game. So, how does a DC prepare with a mix of solid Patriots players that include an elite QB and TE not being able to anticipate what that offense might gear up to accomplish. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) after 2 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. 44% of these plays covered the spread by 7 points and underscores my belief that Patriots will win. Here is money line system that has gone 22-10 for 69% winners since 2003 and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +150 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after eight or more games and after a win by three or less points. It is likely that Revis will be defending Jordy Nelson. Whoever, Revis covers, which could be multiple players in varying down-and-yards situations, he will take them out of the play scheme. He has been the best CB in the NFL over the past five games by many metrics and has allowed an average of just 1 reception per 14.2 coverage snaps. Taking out Jody Nelson or using Revis as a defensive decoy will cause Rogers and Co. great problems in my estimation. Take the Patriots. 

The NFC South Division is by far the weakest Division in the NFL. The Falcons and the Saints lead with 4-7 marks and neither has a very strong chance of getting to 0.500. So, it may seem a bit contrarian for a play on a losing record team playing an Arizona squad with the best record in the conference. 

Atlanta is coming off a very tough loss to the Browns. A last second field was the difference, but despite this frustration, they are still tied for the Division lead. They also struggled on defense allowing 162 rushing yards and 313 passing yards for a combined 6.80 yards per play. Atlanta has been a resilient team, though, posting a 7-0 ATS mark after allowing six or more yards/play in two consecutive games in games played spanning the last two seasons. 

Stanton has done a decent job under center, but he has been making too many misreads when under pressure. This has been evident in both blitz and 4-man pass rushes. He has a tendency to lock-in on one receiver, which has led to the majority of his interceptions. When blitz by Seattle he averaged only 3 yards per play. Atlanta will blitz more than a third of all plays from a various angles and look to force Stanton into as many mistakes leading to turnovers or drive ending incompletions. 

I expect Atlanta to win the field position battle. With a short field and an offense that ranks 11th in yards per play and third in red zone scoring, they will score at least 24 points in this game. I strongly believe that Atlanta will get out to a lead and then put pressure on an offense that does not possess the elite skill position players to generate second half comebacks. 

The New York Giants are coming off an extremely physical game against the Division rival Cowboys and now play arguably the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville. Yet, the Giants have just two more wins than Jaguars and are surprisingly similar to them in the defensive statistical categories. Further, the Giants almost beat the 49ers and TWO 11-point leads against the Cowboys. These types of failures are more difficult o absorb and move forward than simply getting blown out. So, I don't see much left in the Giants tank other than building for the future and seeing what more Beckham can contribute for the future. 

The matchup I see working very well is the Jaguars offense going up against a Giants defense ranking 27th in points allowed, 31st in yards per game allowed, 30th in points-per-play allowed, and dead last in yards per play allowed.  Granted, Jaguars have struggled mightily on offense, but they will be able to stretch the Giant defense and open up running lanes for the ground game. 

Bortles made 21 of 24 throws that were less than 10 yards in length in last week's loss to the Colts. I believe he will ample time to throw down field in vertical routes amid a decent ground game. Play action is a quarterbacks best pass blocker allowing time o scan the field and execute high percentage throws. The Giants defense allowed Romo 7.5 seconds of time to throw the ball on the winning scoring drive TWICE. In this light, Shorts and Lee have the speed, quickness, and athleticism, to create space and Bortes will get the ball to them. I also see TE Mercedes Lewis as a solid check down option. 

I also believe that the Jacksonville defense featuring LB Telvin Smith and DE Chris Clemons will be successful in containing the Giants offense. Former Seattle DE Chris Clemons finally had a monster game sacking Luck three times in the first quarter alone that included a strip-sack. Pressure on Manning is a dominant key in keeping Beckham under wraps and I see the Jaguars winning that matchup. 

The Giants allowed 34 points last week in their loss to the Cowboys. This is not good news noting they are just 1-9 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game in all games played over the last two seasons. Giants have allowed 30+ points in four of the last five games. I don't expect the Jaguars to score 30+ points, but I do see them scoring between 22 and 28 points. In past games over the last three seasons, the Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points. 

15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the St. Louis Ram sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid shot at an upset win. The records aside, these two teams are surprisingly similar. The difference is that the Raiders have been making steady improvements and are looking better on both sides of the ball. Although they rank near the bottom of the NFL in the majority of offensive stats, they ranks best in the NFL in Red Zone scoring. Stands to reason then that the Raiders will see an increase in red zone scoring opportunities facing the Rams 29th rank in points per play allowed ratio and 29th rank in TD allowed. To score points, a team needs solid QB protection. Raiders Tackle Donald Penn has been fantastic in recent weeks and ranks among the top-5 tackles in pass blocking. He has allowed 19 QB pressures, but just 1 sack and 1 QB hit on the season. On the defensive side of the ball the Raiders have the BEST run stop ILB in Mack, who has 15 more run stops than any other ILB in the league. Further, keep an eye on Antonio D. Smith, who has 30 QB pressures and ranks in the top-10 in 3-4 DE alignments in the league. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG. Take Oakland.

15* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 7 or more points. The only 'red flag' on this game is that there is a betting imbalance with the public squarely supporting the Bengals. Now, the public is never always wrong, but I do generally like being on the 'book' side. Keep in mind too, that betting flows is just one of a ton of researched factors I perform each week and for every game. There is not one 'black box' type of indicator or stat that serves to validate a play by itself. A key matchup that I see the Bengals winning is against DT McCoy, who ranks best by a wide margin in pass rush and overall performance. He will be contained by the Bengals interior linemen Boling and Zeitler. Giving Dalton time to throw to a strong receiver corp led by A.J. Green will put immense pressure on the TB secondary. Bengals are a solid 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Bengals.

15* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Cleveland Browns in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Kyle Orton has been critiqued unfairly with the talking heads always looking in the rear view mirror in evaluating his performance. The simple fact is he is a very intelligent QB and athlete, who just does not make mistakes and makes the plays necessary to put his team in position to win the game. His passer accuracy rating is fourth-best in the NFL. Bills have two elite defensive tackles in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and they will contain any form of ground attack from the Browns. The Bills got a real hidden gem in the third round of the draft in linebacker Preston Brown, who ranks best in the NFL ahead of Von Miller based on tackle efficiency grade. Take the Bills. 

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on Kansas State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This game is a near match to the 25* shocker I had on Kansas when they nearly took out TCU. They led that game 27-17 entering the 4th quarter. I am not suggesting at all that you will see the same sort of game, but I do strongly believe Kansas can match up with them and compete for the entire game. Now, you may point out that Kansas was destroyed last week by Oklahoma in a 44-7 route. However, Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 19912. This system has posted a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons. Play on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's squad. Kansas has been steadily improving on offense and I believe they can compete against a K-State team that just might more focused on next week's potential showdown with Baylor. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Penn State University as they host Michigan State in Happy Valley in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will keep this game to fewer than 10 points. If you believe in the upset adding a 3* play using the money line makes perfect sense. The PSU defense is the most under rated group of defenders not only in the Big Ten, but the nation. They rank best allowing just 267 yards per game, third in scoring defense, 6th in points per play allowed, best allowing just 3.9 yards per play, send allowing just 27% third down conversions, and 5th allowing just 5.7 yards per pass. Certainly they will be severely tested by a strong MSU offensive attack, but I firmly believe PSU will win the 'war'. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 48% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Penn State. 

25* graded play on the Mississippi as they take on Mississippi State in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 25-7 mark using the Money Line and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a solid +121 DOG play and is a perfect 2-0 this season.  Play on a road team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Based on the summary of projections, I am confident Rebels will score at least 28 points. In past games, Rebels are a solid 5-2 ATS this season, 18-5 ATS the L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. I also see them having a monster day on offense and will gain 400 to 450 total yards. This has been a rare occurrence for the team, but when they do achieve this elite level of offensive production, they are a  6-1 ATS L3 seasons. In the current season they are 4-1 ATS. I simply do not see this team as one that is out of gas, especially playing this heated rival and a chance to knock them out of the playoff. Take the Rebels. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-28 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. This system is an impressive 21-7 ATS this season and 54-15 ATS over the past three seasons. 45% of all of these plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% winners since 2008. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, after the first month of the season. Arkansas is playing well and certainly will be a contender next season. They continue to build toward that future. They are also a resounding 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season. I always go back to by 25* winner with Arkansas when they went on the road and nearly took then no-1 Miss State into Overtime. They had not won an SEC game in nearly two seasons, but were only installed as 11 point road favorites in that game. This simply reflects how deep the SEC is right now and how incredibly tough the SEC West Division has been this season. Arkansas' running game is quite good and Missouri has had immense trouble against these type of squads. In fact, since Pinkel became HC , his Tigers are a money burning  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games facing solid rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game. Take Arkansas. 

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Western Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 11:00 AM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* wager on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Three teams are tied atop the MAC West Division at 6-1: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Toledo. All three take the field Friday and obviously one of these teams will be eliminated from that race. NIU simply has to win this game and they claim the West Title and will play East winner Bowling Green. Toledo is the third team in the mix and they need loss by NIU and a win over EMU, who has just one conference win. WMU needs to win and then hope for the highly improbable upset by EMU over Toledo. So, I believe the reality of the situation is that the NI players simply know that no matter what happens in their game, Toledo is just not going to lose to EMU. So, you have one team that knows if they win they are in and the other knowing the chances for a Conference Championship game are very slim. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-45 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites om conference matchups (W MICHIGAN) in a game involving two mistake-free teams committing

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Normally, I would consider a combination wager consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line, but the risk/reward profile just does not validate the added risk. So, simply stick with a 25* play using the line. What I do like, though is adding a 10* play using the 'over' for this contest. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (TCU) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. During this win streak ATS, one of the winners was the 25* play on +28 1/2 point dog Kansas, who led 27-17 in the fourth quarter against TCU. Kansas ended up losing 34-30 but easily covered the huge number. Both teams played 12 days ago and will be a full strength and this helps Texas far more than it does TCU. Since losing 23-0 at K-State October 25, Texas has ripped off three impressive wins and covers where both the offense and defense played at elite levels. Most notable was the marked improvement in the ground attack and the run defense. These are the two ingredients necessary for a dog to pull off a big time upset of a ranked opponent. TCU ranks second in scoring offense and 7th in passing yards. Texas defense is 4th best against the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Take the Longhorns.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a critical NFC East matchup set to start Thanksgiving Day at 4:30 PM ET. I also have a 15* play 'under' for this game. I don't believe adding a parlay is warranted since there is already 40* amount of risk on this game. However, if you want to parlay these picks, then don't use more than a 5*  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% and is now playing a team with a winning record. 45% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. I fully expect the Dallas offense to be in top gear and will score between 22 and 28 points and average more than 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points and 4-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing more than 6.0 yards per play. You won't be surprised by the fact that I positively love the matchups that Dallas has and will dominate on both sides of the LOS. They rank second gaining 150 rushing yards per game and are going against an Eagle defense ranking 26th allowing 375 yards per game. Eagles are good on offense ranking 4th in yards per game, but rank just 28th in red zone scoring. Dallas defense ranks 13th in take-aways while Eagles are DEAD LAST  in give-aways. Eagles have 26th worst turnover margin. The Chip Kelly (Oregon offense) is designed to snap the ball quickly between plays and catch the defense not prepared or not able to substitute personnel. As a result the Eagles rank 30th in TOP. However, in this matchup that may be the worst thing the Eagles can do. Dallas ranks 4th best in TOP as they are quite well equipped to generate long time consuming scoring drives with either/both a power ground attack and elite passing attacks. Dez Bryant and Jason Whitten have a great matchups. This will force the Eagles to double team at least one of them. In turn, Dallas can use Bryant as a decoy and allow Romo to target  Terrance Williams, who is listed as questionable. Even he does not go in this game, the Cowboys have depth at WR with Devin Street, Cole Beasley, and Donald Hawkins, all of which could have big days with all the attention and focus the Eagles will have on Bryant and Whitten. The Dallas OL is the best in the NFL and I fully expect them to dominate the LOS. The Eagles have been very successful with using a wide array of blitzes, but I don't see that working against this OL. 

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the New Orleans Saints in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Let's look at the technical side first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983 and is on a 5-0 ATS run over the last three seasons. Play against home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) that are good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/attempt and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. Saints have lost two straight games and the defense was torched in both of those losses to San Francisco and Carolina. Not a good situation for tha saints as their HC Payton is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. Let's take a detailed look at the fundamentals supporting my case for the upset win. Brees has an excellent pass grade of +22.0, which is third-best among all quarterbacks, a Quarterback Rating  of 94.54 good for fifth-best, and an Accuracy Percentage  of 80.8% third-best out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks. However, when facing pressure, which has been on 33.6% of his drop-backs, Brees’ production has dipped significantly. When dealing with pressure, Brees’ accuracy percentage falls to 73.6%, not a substantial decrease, but a decrease nonetheless. The vast reason for cause is the fact that Brees has thrown a league-tying six interceptions when under pressure, in comparison to just two touchdowns. Bress will facing three of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Terrell Suggs. Dumervil ranks best in various pass rush categories with McPhee raning third-best. I am confident that the Ravens will blitz far more than 33% of plays and closer to 60% and use a wide array of angles and gaps to completely confuse Brees' pre-snap reads. You'll also see McPhee line up in multiple locations as he has rushed from the right side 53% of the time and 38% from the left side of the LOS. Now, on the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary has been horrid with only one player, Patrick Robinson, grading positively in pass defense this season. They have regressed significantly over the past three week sand Flaco is an experienced field general, who will just not make mistakes. Instead, the Ravens will show a few formation wrinkles to allow them to get Steve Smith isolated in man coverage or to find areas in the zone for Flacco to execute very high percentage completions. Take Baltimore.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Washington Redskins in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  Biggest news Sunday is that if RG III is ineffective he will be replaced and benched. That can't bode much confidence for the rest of the unit. A bright note for the Redskins has been the elite play by LT Trent Williams. However, he will not be playing today and is listed as doubtful with an MCL. Rookie Morgan Moses will be given the near-impossible task of protecting the blind side against Aldon Smith and/or Aaron Lynch in blitz schemes. The duo combined for the best pass rushing ratings in Week 11 and I fully expect them to be getting to all Redskin Quarterbacks this afternoon. Pressure will be most effective from the perimeters since Redskins Center Kory Lichtensteiger has allowed only eight QB hurries in 384 passing block plays. I expect the 49ers to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when the 49ers score between 22 and 28 points they have posted a 12-2 ATS mark over the L3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS mark this season.Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-25 ATS for 68% winners since 2008. Play against favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Here is another game situation that matches my expectations. Washington has been a money burning 1-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards. Take the 49ers. 

Arizona is playing well and has posted the best record in the NFL. However, they know face their stiffest test in the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. Seattle has several favorable matchups starting with their run defense. Arizona has been unable to get a ground attack going this year ranking 30th averaging 80 rushing yards per game. Seattle has a very strong defensive front seven ranking seventh in run defense allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game. I fully expect the Seattle run defense to dominate the Arizona ground game and force them into third-and-long situations. With a limited ground attack, Seattle will not be vulnerable to play action and can send pressure from numerous angles in passing downs. Seattle ranks third in pass defense allowing 215 yards per game. Another matchup I see Seattle winning is their ground game led by Lynch that ranks best in the NFL gaining 174 yards per game. Arizona has a great run defense ranking third, but I don't see this unit containing them. In fact, last week Lynch made contact with tacklers only 6 times behind the line of scrimmage in 24 carries against Kansas City. He also forced six missed tackles and gained 70 yards after first contact. The ability to successfully execute the power running game will open up a multitude of passing options for Wilson and his receivers that will be in man coverage situations. 

Arizona backup quarterback Stanton has played above expectations, but last week's win over Detroit was marred by some very poor decisions. In one play, he through a post route, but failed miserably to identify the underneath coverage by linebacker Josh Bynes. Seattle is arguably the best in underneath man and zone execution and disguise those schemes very well pre-snap. Seattle will look to force Stanton to make high risk throws over the middle of the field that may lead to several interceptions. 

Looking at the technical side of this matchup there is a a very strong system that has gone 33-7 ATS  for 83% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that struggle to run the ball gaining between 70 and 95 yards per game and are now facing a team with a strong rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 rushing yards per game. This system clearly underpins the fundamental matchups that I strongly believe Seattle will win. 

I also project that Seattle will gain 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, Arizona is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards in games played over the last three seasons. On the other side of the ball, I expect Arizona to have less than 75 rushing yards. In past games, Seattle is a stout 3-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. Take Seattle and lay the points.

Minnesota is getting 10 points in a home game against divisional rival Green Bay. I strongly believe that this double digit dog will stay within the posted number and make the Packers work hard to earn the win. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over a completely over matched Eagles squad. They rank first in the NFL in several offensive scoring categories. The Vikings though have a solid defense and one where the matchups are quite favorable in at least containing the Packers juggernaut. 

The Vikings lost to Chicago last week in a game that was marred by a malfunctioning game clock that impacted the end of the game. Still, they had chances to win. QB Bridgewater had a solid agme, but chose to check down to high percentage completions. The large majority of his throws were between the sideline numbers and within 10 yard of the line of scrimmage. He will challenge the Packers secondary that has been suspect in vertical routes periodically. Moreover, the Packers have not yet proved they can stop the run. I see the Vikings ground attack strong enough for the Packers to respect and this in turn will open play action for Bridgewater. That extra second or so to scan the field will allow him to identify the best opportunity in a man coverage situation. 

Another matchup that favors the Vikings is defensive end Everson Griffin, who has had three impressive games. He dominated the left side of the Bears offensive line and recorded five hurries last week. He has a great matchup this week that i expect to see end in a greater number of hurries on Packer general Rogers. 

Vikings defensive tackle Sharif Floyd had by far his best game against the Bears with tremendous lateral pursuit and gap discipline. His play will be critical at the point of attack in blowing up run plays and collapsing the pocket. Moreover, he will destroy any weak side blocking forcing those run plays to the extreme perimeter. 

The betting public is all over Green Bay in this matchup on the results of last week's blowout win over the Eagles. In fact, 81% of all bets made on this game are on the Packers and this is a sure sign of irrational exuberance by the betting public. This type of frenzied wagering flows serves to reinforce and further support the play on Minnesota. Take the Minnesota Vikings and as an option consider adding a small amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible shocking upset. 

50* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on USC Trojans in a huge PAC-12 Conference game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-11 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match my expectations for what will occur in the game. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this season, 7-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450 to 500 offensive yards. I also see UCLA scoring at least 28 points. USC is a miserable 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-60 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, head coach Jim More, JR. has a great history of preparing his team when facing an elite foe. He has posted a 9-2 ATS when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. Two of the best QB's in the nation square off in this game with UCLA's Hundley and USC's Kessler. I give the advantage though to Hundley with his duel threat and experience under center. A matchup worth watching in this game is how I see UCLA being able to neutralize USC's best defensive player in DE Williams. UCLA has a great running back in Paul Perkins, who ranks second in the PAC-12 gaining 117 yards-per-game. The UCLA team ranks second in the conference and 27th in the nation gaining 217 rushing yards per game. Hundley is first in the nation in completion percentage and given the solidi ground attack will enjoy plenty of time int he pocket in play action. His ability to extend the play further is also a huge advantage for his receivers to create separation and make big plays downfield. USC will get their points as well, but I just do not see them being able to keep pace with the UCLA offense. Take the Bruins. 

15* graded play on Tulane as they take on East Carolina in American Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. ECU had some impressive wins early int eh season, but that has been more than offset with two consecutive losses that have taken them out of any contention for the Conference Title.  Tulane has struggled on offense this season, but they have a strong secondary that i see matching up well against the ECU passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing yards in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 25-2 ATS mark for 93% winners since 2003 and has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ECU) that are off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG after 7+ games. Take Tulane plus the points.  

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Although this is a home game, it is one where MSU could very easily fall flat and not take Rutgers seriously. They lost to Ohio State two weeks ago ending any chance at a National Championship or entry into the playoff format. They held it together last week against Maryland, but now two weeks past the big upset loss and playing what appears to be a vastly inferior foe, they are ripe for Rutgers to give them a test. Rutgers is bowl eligible in their first season in the Big Ten, but a big effort here - even in a loss - would make them an attractive team for many of the pre-New Years bowls. Rutgers has a sneaky-good passing attack that ranks 19th in the nation gaining 8.3 passing yards per attempt. Their offense is designed to run first and average 57% run plays. In play action, Rutgers has been outstanding and this is a real weakness in the MSU secondary. Ohio State repeatedly used play action and little bubble screens to generate big plays after the catch and keep the chains moving downfield. I certainly don't expect Rutgers to execute to that degree of success, but will be far more successful than most observers believe possible. I expect them to gain between 8.0 and 8.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, MSU is just 3-16 ATS when they have allowed 8.0 to 8.5 net passing yards in games played since 1992.  Take Rutgers.

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-12 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) in a conference matchup that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match my projections for the game. Oklahoma is a resounding 3-1 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 63-16 ATS since 1992 when they have out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play; 4-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 51-21 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more yards per play. Sooners roll big.

15* graded play on San jose State as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET and will be seen on ESPN2/WatchESPN.  The simulator shows a high probability that San Jose State will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Here are a few historical precedents that support this play. SJS is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Utah State has lost three quarterbacks in the month of October. Feshman Kent Myers has done a tremendous job coming in off the bench and has won three straight games. He has thrown for 531 yards on a remarkable 43-of-57 passing and a 173 QB rating. however, he has been sacked 8 times and you can bet SJS will be bring pressure from a wide array of angles. There is enough game film now that SJS can fully prepare for him. Moreover, his average throw has not been all that vertical. If you factor out the lone 70 yard completion his passes have been short. This also reflects that Utah State has done well after the catch and gained most of the passing yards after the catch. I fully expect SJS to tackle well and play a very disciplined scheme tonight that will make if difficult for Utah State to keep the chains moving. Take San jose State.