15* graded play on Chicago as they take on Minnesot set to start at 8:20 PM ET in Monday Night Football action. The venue has been moved to outdoors and weather conditions will be horrific with driving snow, wind and wind chills at or below zero degrees. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Bears will win this game by a minimum of nine points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-5 ATS for 84% winners since 2005. Play on road teams that are average rushing team gaining between 95-125 rushing yards per game after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game and now facing an average rushing defense allowing 95-125 rushing yards per game and after 8+ games. Minnesota has gone an imperfect 0-7 ATS as an underdog this season and I don

25* graded play on Seattle as they host Atlanta set to start at 4:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a reasonable opportunity to get the win. Consider splitting the wager into two parts with an 11* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 68-31 ATS for 69% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs and pick-em in December games that are off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. 42.4% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Atlanta is a far different team than they were back in the 1990

25* graded play on the Giants as they host the Eagles in a massive NFC EAST showdown with far reaching playoff implications. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game by more than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-9 ATS for 79% winners since 2000. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent and with both teams winning between 60 and 75% of their games. Refining this system to include only games taking place in the second half of the season, the system improves to a 26-4 ATS mark for 87% winners since 2000. Giants are 32-15 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The Giants running game has improved significantly over the past several games and will be a dominant reason they win this crucial game. Coughlin is a solid 24-9 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards in their last game. Both teams have similar stats and rankings, but a change made in the aftermath of the Giants loss at Philadelphia has ignited the Giants running game. Brandon Jacobs replaced Ahmad Bradshaw as the starting running back and over the past three games they have combined to gain 545 yards for a 6.1 yards per rush average. Both running backs had more than 100 yards rushing in their 21-3 win over Minnesota last Monday. Eagles DC McDermott likes to use speed and quickness in stopping the run instead of using power at the point of attack. The Giants have a huge advantage running the ball in this game. Manning will have simple reads to make pre-snap locating both safeties and identifying where the pressure may come from. The Eagles will be extremely vulnerable to play action pass plays over the middle of the field. The Eagles will be forced to use extra defenders to control run gaps and this leaves receivers in man coverage for the majority of the game. Giants win big!

15* graded play on Troy University as they take on Ohio University in the New Orleans Bowl set to start at 9 PM ET. This game is taking place in the Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Troy will win this game by more than three points. Ohio is 0-4 in all bowl games played in school history and Troy is a seasoned bowl university having played five bowls in the past seven years. The Ohio defense will not be able to contain the best scoring offense in the Sun Belt Conference. Troy averaged 32.9 points per game while the Ohio Bobcats yielded 21.8 points per game and allowed 332.7 yards per game. Troy was also first in the conference in offense gaining 441.1 yards per game. Troy is a near perfect 8-1 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 ATS after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Since becoming the head coach of Troy, Biakeney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Troy wins BIG!

15* graded play on the Texans as they take on the Baltimore Ravens set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will lose this game by fewer than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on dogs or pick after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game taking place n the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 28-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites that are good teams posting a scoring differential of +3 to +7 points per game and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games facing an average team posting a scoring differential of +/- 3 points per game after eight or more games have been completed of the regular season. Texans head coach Kubiak is 9-2 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. Texans are still surprisingly in the hunt for the playoffs being part of the highly competitive AFC South. The Texans matchup very well against the Ravens defense ranking 9th in passing gaining 242.6 yards per game and 7th in rushing gaining 130.5 yards per game. The Texans can use spread formations to free up the middle of the field for between the tackle power runs. This in turn can setup the highly effective play action pass routes. I

15* graded play on the Giants as they take on Minnesota set to start at 7 PM ET and will be played in Detroit. The Metrodome rook collapse was certainly spectacular to watch, but I certain we are all thankful the collapse did not occur in the middle of the game. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game by four or more points. The simulator also shows a high probability that the Vikings will not score more than 21 points. Note that Minnesota is 1-2 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 28-52 ATS since 1992 when scoring between 15 and 21 points in a game. Giants are projected to throw for 7 to 7.5 yards per pass attempt in this game. Not that the Giants are 1-0 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 21-9 ATS since 1992 when they gain between 7 and 7.5 yards per pass attempt in a game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-18 ATS for 74% winners since 1983. Play on favorites off a win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. Take the Giants.

15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 8:20 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Eagles have to be paying attention to the game next week and the fact that the Giants game is now being moved to Monday or even Tuesday night. However, this is a trap for the Eagles with Dallas playing far better team football over the past several weeks. Dallas season is over, but defeating the Eagles would go along way toward taking the edge off this horrid season. Dallas is 11-2 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992; 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last two seasons; 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-7 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on dogs or pick after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Take the Cowboys.

25* graded play on the Chargers as they host the Kansas City Chiefs set to start at 4:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will win this game by 10 or more points. The Chargers are in a

15* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers. With the weather in the midwest at blizzard conditions, the Giants being trapped in Kansas City unable to get to Minneapolis, and now the collapse of the Metrodome roof I am releasing all plays (not just this one) later than usual. Thank goodness Detroit has a dome or this game just might now have many fans in the stands. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than six points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-10 ATS for 76% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 3 or more consecutive losses and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Reducing this system to just home teams improves the record to 29-7 ATS for 81% winners. A matchup to watch is the Packers Clay Matthews going up against left tackle Jeff Backus. Matthews has led the NFL in sacks for most of the season, but was contained well by the 49ers in last week

25* graded play on Army as they take on Navy in the famed Army/Navy game set to start at Noon EST. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid opportunity at an upset win. Consider an optional wager betting 20* on the line and a 5* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-16 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. Play against any team that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 yards per rush facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.3 to 4.8 yards per play and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games. Supporting the upset bid is a solid money making money line system that has produced a 44-47 record and made a whopping 47.5 units since 2005. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Navy is certainly a running team and they rank fifth nationally gaining 302.5 yards per game. They rank 40th in scoring offense at 31 points per game and rank 45th in scoring defense allowing 22.8 points per game. Army is a near mirror image of the Midshipman ranking 9th in rushing yards gaining 260.3 yards per game and 52nd in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game. Army ranks 55th in scoring defense at 24.6 points per game. Army is vastly improved and they to have the personnel on both sides of the ball to make this a game that comes down to the final drive. I think Army will easily cover. Take Army.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they host Indianapolis set to start at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than three points and have an excellent shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-10 ATS for 77.3% winners since 1983. Play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. Tennessee is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 7-19 ATS facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game since 1992; 17-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games since 1992. Here is a money line system that has gone 19-9 for 68% winners with an average play of a +180 dog since 1983. Play on dogs using the money line in a game involving two average teams posting +/- 3 points per game differentials after eight or more games and after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. The Colts are very tired and it has been evident on both sides of the ball during the past several weeks. The offense is a M.A.S.H. unit and back-up players are no where close to possessing the athleticism necessary for Manning and the offense to click on all cylinders. As a result the defense has been on the field far too long and they are coming off a horrible loss to Dallas just this past Sunday. Titans offense has been struggling over the past four weeks not scoring more more than 17 points in any of them. However, they have favorable matchups against a defense that gave up 74 points in the past two weeks. Take the Titans.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Jets set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised on Monday Night Football. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than four points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-18 ATS for 71% winners since 2000. Play against road teams that are solid teams out gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards per game and after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. 45% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 33-3 against the money line for 92% winners since 2000. Play on home favorites using the money line with a struggling defense allowing 6.0 or more yards/play and after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games. Jets are just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus struggling defensive teams allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992. New England is a solid 27-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Brady will be able to exploit any style of defense the Jets thrown at him. The best possible scheme for the Jets defense is to bring strong pressure up the middle and force him to throw to the perimeter. However, he is so quick in getting the ball out and into the hands of his hot read receivers that bringing any pressure might prove to be defensive suicide. Where Welker and the Patriot tight ends succeed in crossing routes, slants and drags is exactly the Achilles heal of the Jets defense. Defensively, The Patriots are quite young in the back end of the secondary, but they are far better now than their season stats otherwise indicate. There has been talk that the Jets will have new plays and new looks to keep the Patriots defense off balance. When was the last time you saw a Patriots team with 11 days of preparation get caught fooled? Take the Patriots BIG!

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Steelers in a huge AFC North Division showdown that will have significant playoff implications for each team. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by more than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-3 using the money line for 91% winners since 1983. Play against road dogs using the money line after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Using the money line is another optional wager. I would suggest using a 15* on the line and then a 10* using the money line as alternative wager. Baltimore will be successful passing the ball and the simulator shows a high probability that they will gain between 6.5 and 7.0 passing yards per attempt. When they have achieved this range of success they are 21-3 ATS since 1992 and a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The Steelers are vulnerable to the run despite being the best run defense in the NFL. The reason is simple. The Steelers must respect the Ravens passing game and this eliminates their gap and zone blitz schemes. They cannot risk getting caught in man coverage situations given the athleticism of the Ravens receivers. I am expecting the Raven to gain well over a 100 yards on the ground because the Steelers will be defending the spread offense most of the game. This will then setup play action pass plays with high completion percentages stretching the defense even further and opening up the running lanes. Roethlisberger is not going mobile today given his foot injury and the Steelers offensive line has been largely inconsistent with their respective assignments. The Steelers will use slide blocking schemes, but the Ravens can bring corner/safety pressure from the back side giving Roethlisberger even less time to throw the ball. Take the Ravens.

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Virginia tech set to start at 7:45 and are playing for the ACC Championship and the automatic BCS bid to the Orange Bowl. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Looking at the specific matchups this game there is one situation that will have a significant affect on the winner of the game. The winner of this game will be the one that runs the ball the best and keeps their quarterback to a minimum number of third and long situations. I think FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is playing his best football of his career and did an incredible job assaulting a very strong Florida secondary in their last win. Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster will certainly show Ponder varying looks and disguise the real coverage. Ponder has struggled at times when his first option is taken away and then is forced to check down. However, I do not see the first option being taken away all that much given the superior speed, quickness, and athleticism of the Seminole receivers. Ponder must be smart with the first read and execute accordingly. Hokie quarterback Taylor will make big plays in his own right and the battle to watch involves the Seminole defensive ends Markus White and Brandon Jenkins going up against the Hokies tackles Blake DeChristopher and Andrew Lanier. I give a significant edge to White and Jenkins and they will keep Taylor from stepping up in the pocket. He has done a great job making the hot reads and not getting quick feet and has executed a high number of passes under duress. The Seminoles may use a linebacker to

15* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Consider adding an optional 3* play on the Texans on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Houston is 24-10 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Texans Head Coach Kubiak is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games facing excellent ball control teams having 32 or more possession minutes per game. Supporting the money line is a fact that Ried is just 3-7 against the money line (-17.2 Units) against AFC South division opponents. Kubiak is a solid 8-2 against the money line (+10.1 Units) after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games. The Eagles are finishing a stretch of playing four games in 18 days and they certainly looked tried in their loss at Chicago Sunday. The offensive line was a big liability consistently missing assignments and as a result Vick was sacked four times. So, although the Texans had to travel, they will be the fresher team and this will be quite evident in the fourth quarter. This fatigue factor is magnified by the strong Texan ground attack featuring NFL leader in rushing yards Arian Foster. On the offensive line Chris Myers and Wade Smith working together with FB Vonta Leach are going to dominate the line of scrimmage and wear down an already suspect defensive front. The Eagles secondary was exposed last week by the Bear

10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on intra-state and Pac-10 rival Arizona set to start at 8 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and a realistic shot at winning the game SU. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-10 for 83% winners using the money line since 2000. Play against a home team using the money line after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last three games facing an opponent after outgaining the opposition by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This is not a good role for Arizona and they have been large money burners posting a 12-27 ATS record as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Arizona is off a highly emotional conference loss to Oregon and they are 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. So, look for Arizona to get off to a slow start and add a 5* amount playing ASU on the first half line.

15* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona set to start at 8:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-8 ATS for 78% winners since 2000. Play on road teams off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite and after the first month of the season. SF is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
49ers head coach Singletary is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 37-7 against the money line since 2000. Play on road favorites using the money line that are average passing teams gaining between 5.9-6.7 passing yards per attempt facing a poor passing team gaining 5.3-5.9 passing yards per attempt and after 8+ games of the regular season. The 49ers defense will be able to bracket WR Fitzgerald and bump him at the LOS and pinch him into the inside. This is an area of the field that Anderson has had his poorest reads and throws/ It is also the area where the greatest defensive help will be available and also the greatest amount of traffic. By taking Fitzgerald out of the game, the 49ers still have significant advantages across the line of scrimmage. The 49ers offensive line will have a big day against the Cardinals. The 49ers OL had begun a nice run, but simply had a poor game against Tampa Bay. The matchups favor the 49ers to have a solid game running the ball and this opens up the play action pass routes that will stretch the defense further. Take the 49ers.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take Pittsburgh set to start at 1 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a an excellent opportunity to win this game. I have had plays on the Bills the past two weeks and have gotten two wins from them. Their comeback against the Bengals where they scored 35 points UNANSWERED points in the second half will certainly carry over to this game. The Bills can play lose and free and have nothing to lose. They are supposed to lose this game and that makes for one dangerous opponent. Supporting the Bills is a strong system that has gone 43-16 ATS for 73% winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game and after the first month of the season. Last year the Steelers lost three games to teams with a combined 6-26 SU record. Buffalo has won tow games and has a solid shot at an upset third win. They must establish the run early and here is why they will. Pittsburgh

15* graded play on Penn State as they host Michigan State set to start at High Noon ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game.
MSU off an emotionally tiring win
Michigan State had to use a 22 point fourth quarter to come back and defeat a highly suspect and inconsistent Purdue offensive team. I am concerned that the Spartans now have doubts about how good they are and entering Happy Valley is about as intimidating as any venue in the nation. Penn State is off a strong win last week and are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last home game of the year off a 17 or more point win.

Matt McGloin
The National Ranks are very misleading regarding the present abilities and strengths of Penn State. They rank 58th in passing gaining 223.9 yards per game and 71st in rushing gaining 148.2 yards per game. They struggled early on and as a result have an 81st ranking in points scored at 24.8 points per game. However, head coach Paterno made a quarterback switch to Matt McGloin and he has done exceptionally well posting a 148.39 passer rating and completing 60% of his passes for 1,205 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

With McGloin under center Penn State is averaging 33 points per game and have won four of the last five games. He was 22-for-31 and 315 yards and two touchdowns in last week

10* graded play on Nevada as they take on Boise State set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2000. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, after the first month of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 72-40 ATS for 64% winners sine 2005. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13. Nevada head coach Ault is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of Nevada; 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Watch Nevada quarterback Kaepernick and his running back teammate Vai Taua, who have worked brilliantly together out of the Pistol scheme. Boise MUST bring run support help and this will open up strong opportunities in the vertical passing game with wide receivers Rishard Matthews and Brandon Wimberly and especially TE Virgil Green. Take Nevada.

25* graded play onAuburn. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than four points.
This is the 75th annual Iron Bowl game pitting No.2 Auburn (11-0, 7-0 SEC) traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the defending BCS Champs Alabama (9-2), 5-2 SEC). The weather will be perfect with abundance sunshine and a high temperature of 52 degrees near game time. This game is more than just state bragging rights and advantages for future recruiting efforts. This year

10* graded play on Central Michigan as they take on Toledo set to start at 2 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that CMU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a solid opportunity to get a big road win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 21-10 making 33.5 units since 2000. Play on a road team using the money line in a game involving two average teams posting a +/- 5 points per game differential and after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game. Toledo is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Take Central Michigan.

10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on West Virginia set to start at Noon EST Friday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of
This game comes down to whether the Panthers will be able to run the ball against the West Virginia defense. I think they will be able to run the ball just enough to keep the safeties honest. Periodically, the Mountaineers will use the safeties for run support or use them for gap blitzes to stop the run and to get pressure on the quarterback. Look for that in the game and then watch Pittsburgh attack down field with vertical routes using play action.
Pittsburgh has a big advantage with their tall and athletic wide receivers. Panthers sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri will have several options in hot read situations and will be throwing to the far bigger target. He has posted a remarkable 146.15 quarterback passer rating with 14 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He is very smart with the football and will be a major factor in a Pittsburgh win. West Virginia is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.

25* graded play on Texas as they host Texas A&M set to start at 8 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Consider splitting this 25* bet into two parts with 20* on the line and 5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 76-34 ATS for 69% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and is a good offensive team scoring between 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7th game of the regular season. Here is a second system that has gone 29-8 ATS since 2000 for 78.4% winners since 2000. Play on a home team that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 3 to 3.5 yards per rushing after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. Texas

Happy Thanksgiving! 15* graded play on Detroit as they take on New England set to start at 12:30 EST Thanksgiving Day. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than six points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2000. Play on home dogs or pick after 3 or more consecutive losses and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. NE is a weak 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team posting a win percentage of <=25% in the second half of the season since 1992. Lions have been a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) facing poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. Despite being 8-2, the Patriots have attained some very average numbers and rankings in the NFL. They rank 16th in both passing and rushing gaining 226.6 passing yards per game and 112.8 rushing yards per game respectively. They rank an incredibly poor 31st in passing defense allowing 289.6 yards per game. Detroit, meanwhile has been the best ATS team in the NFL posting an 8-2 mark this season. The Lions passing offense ranks 6th gaining 255.9 yards per game. The Lions offense will exploit the Patriots defense and this in turn will open up the running game for them as well. Patriots might be in trouble in this game because the simply do not match up well against the Lions. Take the Lions

15* graded play on San Diego as they take on Denver set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that he Chargers will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 111-62 ATS since 1983. Play against road dogs or pick off an upset win by 14 points or more as a dog. This system is 4-1 ATS for 80% winners this season. Denver is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. SD is a solid 32-14 ATS facing poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Denver faces a daunting task tonight facing arguably the best defense in the AFC. Denver

15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on Detroit Lions set to start at 1 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than seven points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 2005 and is 13-1 ATS for 93% ATS winners. Play on any team after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games and is a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season. No doubt, the Dallas defense has contributed largely to their incredibly disappointing season. However, Detroit has failed against similar defenses posting a 3-14 ATS when facing very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992. Lions are the third worst rushing team in the NFL and they have gotten the job done through the air this year and establishing an amazing 7-1-1 ATS record. However, this is not going to work against the Cowboys defense, who will pin their ears back if Detroit attempts to be a one dimensional passing team. Detroit will counter this with tight end sets where they can execute power running plays between the tackles or us play action pass to keep the linebackers honest. Dallas will minimize yards after the catch and force Detroit to defeat them with vertical passing routes. Last week in Dallas

25* graded play on Carolina as they host the Ravens set to start at 1 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like taking a 3* amount using the Money Line and adding it to the 15* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2000. Play on any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Adding a three or more game losing streak to this system improves it to a 28-5 ATS record for 85% winners wince 2000. Carolina is a perfect s 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992; 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games after being out gained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992. Baltimore will certainly look to make things difficult for quarterback Jimmy Clausen, but he certainly is getting better quickly and he improved greatly last week. Wide receivers have had much better days against this Ravens defense then was expected preseason. In last week

10* graded play on Florida State as they take Maryland set to start at 8 ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Seminoles will win this game by four or more points. Seminoles are reinforced by this system that has produced a 54-27 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2005. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are quick starting offensive teams scoring 16+ PPG in the first half and after allowing 14 points or less last game. FSU has stumbled going just 2-2 and losing all four games ATS. However, they are 30-13 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Take the Seminoles.

10* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor set to start at 8 ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than eight points. Oklahoma has arguably one of the best wide receivers to ever play college football in Ryan Broyles. he leads the nation with 95 catches this season and became the all-time leader at Oklahoma with 229 catches and 32 receiving touchdowns. Baylor has no answer for him and he will have another big day with at least 10 receptions. Baylor cannot double team him as it makes for even bigger holes in the defense on the other side of the field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 60-25 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Baylor is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games when facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game since 1992. Take Oklahoma.

15* graded play on Texas A&M as they host Nebraska in a huge Big 12 showdown set to start at 8:00 EST and will be televised by ABC and seen on the internet by ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. The Aggies Jerrod Johnson was the conference

10* graded play on Mississippi State as they host Arkansas set to start at 7 ET in SEC action. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Rebels will lose this game by fewer than three points and obviously I strongly believe has a strong opportunity get a big upset win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-14 for 73% winners since 2005. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, and with the game taking place in November games. Here is a second system that has gone 71-34 ATS for 68% winners since 2005. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread with the game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. Rebels are going to be able to move the ball and score points. The mode shows that they will score between 28 and 35 points. Note that Arkansas is just 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992. The Rebels will also be motivated by the passing of their teammate to cancer two weeks ago and will have a big 36 painted on the field and the 36 yard line will be painted in black. Plus, it is Senior Day REBELS!

25* graded play on Purdue as they take on Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Purdue will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Purdue is on a four game skid and most of their troubles has been turning the ball over far too many times. However, that is about to change in this game and Purdue is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992. The Purdue offense has been struggling to score points, but again the reason they are not scoring is due to turnovers and not an inability to move the football. Purdue is a dominant running team ranking 40th nationally gaining 168.3 yards per game. As a result, they are just 115th in passing gaining 136.8 yards per game. The part of this game I like the most is the Purdue defense and their abilities to pressure the quarterback. They lead the conference with 31 sacks and Ryan Kerrigan has 11 1/2 sacks on the season. He leads that category by 4 sacks over Northwestern

15* graded play on Miami as they take on Chicago set to start at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 ATS for 83% winners since 2000. Play against any team that is an opportunistic team forcing 2.5 or more turnovers per game facing a team forcing <=1.25 turnovers per game and after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. 60% of these games have covered the spread by seven or more points. Chicago leads the NFL with 24 takeaways and is coming off 27-13 win over Minnesota where they forced four turnovers. The Bears defense has had only two games where they did not force three or more turnovers this season. Now, this is all positive for the Bears, but trends like these do not continue indefinitely. Miami has had plenty of game film to study and will be prepared extremely well to protect the ball first. As so many of us have seen the NFL does also stand for

10* graded play on UCLA as they take to the road to face Pac-10 foe Washington set to start at 8 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game. Obvious that UCLA will run the ball since that is what their offensive game plan has been all season. They rank 27th nationally gaining 194.4 rushing yards per game and 116th gaining just 120.8 passing yards per game. No doubt they will be extremely successful running the ball and the simulator shows a very high probability that they will gain a minimum of 200 rushing yards and a minimum of 350 total offensive yards. UCLA is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 22-4 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992. Washington is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 18-8 making 28.2 units since 2000. Play against a home team using the money line and after gaining 225 or less total yards per game over their last 2 games and with 8 defensive starters returning. The average play has been a +200 DOG. Take UCLA.

10* graded play on Temple as they take on Ohio University set to start at 7 PM ET. This is a mammoth game for both programs and the result will have far reaching effects in determining the Mid-American Champion. Temple (8-2, 5-1 MAC) hosts Ohio (7-3), 5-1 MAC) and the winner will have a strong opportunity to travel to Detroit later this month for the MAC Championship game, but there is a far more complex situation brewing in the MAC East Division.

MAC playoff Scenarios
Temple, Ohio, and Miami of Ohio (6-4, 5-1 MAC) are all tied right now in the MAC East Division. Miami

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on Philadelphia set to start at 8:30 EST on Monday Night Football. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-6 ATS for 80% winners since 2005. Play on dogs or pick after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points in the second half of the season. 55% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points which reinforces by expectations that Washington will win this game. This system has also produced a 15-2 ATS for 88.2% winners over the past three seasons. Philadelphia rushing defense has done well over the last four game stretch and has not allowed more than 100 rushing yards in four straight games. That is about to change in tonight

25* graded play on New England as they take on Pittsburgh set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 EST. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New England will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-11 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on road teams off a road loss in November games. Simple and makes a ton of money too. This system has posted a 25-3 ATS record for 89% winners spanning the past three seasons. New England is a solid 17-5 ATS in road games facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992. NE is 9-4 ATS against the Steelers since 1992 and in games played in Pittsburgh NE is a solid 6-2 ATS. Take the Patriots.

15* graded play the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the St. Louis Rams set to start at 4:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by more than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-11 ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play against road teams after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game facing an opponent after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. 47% of these plays have covered by more than seven points. Rams have been on a strong ATS run, but the running game is deteriorating during the last few weeks. Rams are just 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Against Carolina they managed to gain just 61 yards on 29 carries in a game they won 20-10. The fact that they had a two score lead should have lent itself to more running plays and at least better yards per carry. The 49ers despite being just 2-6 are ONLY two games behind the Rams and Seattle for the NFC West Division lead. The 49ers have won of the last three games and the running game is strong. They have gained 400 rushing yards on 95 carries in the last three games. The Rams rushing defense ranks 7th in the NFL, but they are not going to be able to use safety help because of the presence of tight end Vernon Davis. The 49ers have done a great job turning the ball over just once in the past three games while the defense has forced 7 turnovers. The 49ers have rallied around quarterback Troy Smith and the team knows that if they win this game they are right back in the hunt for the division title. Smith has shown his toughness and competitive desire on the field and that is now rubbing off on the rest of his teammates. I fully expect a huge game form the offense. Vernon Davis listed as probable nursing an ankle injury, but even with the injury he is going to exploit the inexperienced Rams linebackers. Look for the 49ers to win this game big.

15* graded play on Fresno State as they take on Nevada set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Fresno State will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and also has a reasonable shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-17 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line that is an average rushing team gaining between140 and 190 rushing yards per game facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 100-140 rushing yards per game and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Here is an amazing system that has gone 29-2 making 27.6 units in profits since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line and is a good offensive team gaining 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play against a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play and after 7+ games and after outgaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Freso head coach Hill is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. Take Fresno State.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State set to start at 3;30 EST and will be televised by ABC/ESPN/ESPN3. Just too many points and my neural network based simulator shows a high probability that Penn State will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Penn State got head coach Joe Paterno

25* graded play on Atlanta as they host Baltimore in Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-3 for 90.3% winners since 2000. Play on home favorites using the money line with a pathetic defense allowing 6.0 or more yards per play and after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in their last 3 games. Baltimore is not in a good spot for this game noting a 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) record in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. Falcons head coach Smith is 12-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Flacons secondary has been torched for three big scores of more than 50 yards in the past three games. This was completely attributed to the blitz not getting to the quarterback and the defender taking poor angles to the ball and the receiver. in one case the defender just slipped on a cut to the ball that he would have at least knocked down if not intercepted. These are correctable flaws and there is a dominant reason why the Falcons defense has 13 interceptions by 10 different players and 16 sacks by nine different players. This blitz scheme that is also very effective against the run will have Flacco rattled period. Take the Falcons.

15* graded play on Connecticut as they take on Pittsburgh set to start at 7:30 EST Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong opportunity to win SU. The Huskies have had a rough season culminating with the dismissal of their starting quarterback Cody Entres for disciplinary reasons and the search for a solid replacement. They had Michael Box start in a 26-0 loss to Louisville and he clearly was not ready for that opportunity and was overwhelmed. Zach Frazer has demonstrated that he is ready to make the most of this opportunity with a surprising 16-13 OT win against West Virginia.

Despite the inconsistencies that have dominated the Huskie squad all year, the emergence of Frazer makes them a very dangerous team for any visiting opponent to face. Still, stopping the Panther running game will be a monumental task for the Huskies, who are allowing 164 rushing yards per game. The Huskie defense has played it

15* graded play on Toledo as they take on Northern Illinois in a very important game in the MAC. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 143-117 using the money line and has made 68.2 units since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line off a double digit road win with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Both teams enter this game with identical 5-0 MAC records and the pressure is squarely on Northern Illinois and they are expected to win this game and take control of the MAC West division. This is the game they need to win to achieve that with only road games against far weaker opponents in Ball State and Eastern Michigan left on the schedule. Toledo is in the same situation. Toledo has not played for more than a week and has had ample preparation time. In addition, it is not a completely negative situation having lost starting quarterback
Austin Dantin to a season ending shoulder injury they have an excellent freshman in Tarrance Owens, In the last game he threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-7 win over Eastern Michigan. He will be able to grind out long scoring drives against the NI defense and has poise far beyond his years. Take Toledo.

10* graded play on the Bengals as they host the Steelers set to start at 8:30 EST on Monday Night Football. An alternative wager is to split the 10* amount into a 7* amount with the points and a 3* amount on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will lose this game by six of fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 89-49 for 65% winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with the game being played in November. Pittsburgh is 7-19 ATS in road games when playing against a bad team posting a winning percentage of 25% to 40% of their games since 1992. Ironic, but true is the fact that Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 4-13 ATS facing poor kickoff coverage teams allowing >= 24 yards per return.
The Steelers use many defensive stunts to get pressure on an opposing quarterback. The Bengals offensive line is quite good in picking up blitzes and Palmer is far better in the pocket than flushed out of it. The Steelers like to bring crossing pressure called

15* graded play on Dallas as they take on Green Bay set to start on Sunday Night Football beginning at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2005. Play on any team after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. The Dallas pass defense has been largely inconsistent and have given up big plays in critical situations. However, Green Bay has not faired well against similar teams in past games posting a 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games facing poor passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Dallas is a solid 28-12 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Tampa Bay set to start at 1:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by more than 10 points. Tampa Bay is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile Atlanta is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. I strongly believe that Atlanta will have another 400 plus offensive day. Note that in past games when Tampa Bay allows more than 400 offensive yards they have posted an 0-1 ATS mark this season, 2-6 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 10-26 ATS mark since 1992. Tampa Bay will not be able to contain the Falcons running game. The Falcons will gain at least 150 rushing yards today. Here again, in past games, the Bucs are 0-3 ATS this season, 4-13 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-41 ATS since 1992 when they allow more than 150 rushing yards. By comparison, the Falcons are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, 13-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 52-17 ATS since 1992 when the gain 125 or more rushing yards. In past games where the Falcons gained more than 400 yards in offense they are 3-0 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 30-12 ATS since 1992. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in rushing defense by the way. In addition, TB has arguably the weakest pair of safeties in the league and Roddy White is playing at a very high level. His presence will open up opportunities for Ryan to hit TE Gonzalez in the middle of the field off play action. TB has no pass rush whatsoever ranking tied for last in the NFl with just six sacks. There 10 players with more than six sacks on their own merit. Take the Falcons.

15* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the NY Jets set to start at 1 ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by four or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 65-29 ARS for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a losing record. Sanchez and the Jets were shutout last week at home coming off a BYE week to the Green Bay Packers. Sanchez made a ton of misreads and that was in a rather simple offensive scheme. Detroit is blitzing more and the play of Ndamukong Suh , Cliff Avril, and Kyle Vanden Bosch are far superior than in the first four weeks of the season. The chemistry has come together and it really showed last week registering six sacks; 2 each by the aforementioned players. Sanchez is at his worse when under duress so look for an extremely aggressive pass rush again today from the Lions. Calvin Johnson is an elite wide receiver and arguably playing near the top of all wide receivers in the league. The Jets like to play

15* graded play on Hawaii as they take on Boise State set to start at 3:30 EST. This game will be televised by ESPN 3D, ESPNU, and ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Hawaii comes in with the No. 1 passing offense in the nation gaining 395.4 yards per game. The offense is led by a very confident QB Bryant Monizis, who is not the elite prototype QB in terms of size, but has tremendous athleticism, a very quick release and a strong arm. This combinations makes him dangerous in their run-and-shoot offense. Boise State DC Kwiatkowski has had the luxury of playing straight defense and uses three safeties in his nickel package. Knowing that the the offense would score a ton of points allows the defense to sit back in their cover-2 and simply not allow the big play. Things will be far different in this game as the Hawaii defense is designed to throw short routes that are intended for yards after the catch. I have yet to see Boise be forced to make tackles in space and Hawaii has a stable of very quick and elusive receivers. Last week, Boise gave up a season high 172 rushing yards to Louisiana Tech last week. Their were failed assignments all over the defensive front and Hawaii can exploit that with draws and delays to Alex Green, who is strong enough to pound the ball between the tackles and quick enough to make the first defender miss. I fully expect Green to get to the second level on numerous running plays and this only compounds the problems on defense for Boise. Hawaii is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take Hawaii

15* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. The loss to Iowa ended all National Title hopes for Michigan State, who were on a five game against the spread winning streak. Minnesota has lost three straight against the spread and a big reason why is they have committed seven turnovers to just four take aways in those games. These turnovers only provide an opposition for a short field to score points and is a significant element to their 105th national rank allowing 34.1 points per game.

The Gophers have gone through a gauntlet of difficult situations including the firing of their head coach, Tim Brewster, after a 28-17 loss to Purdue October 16. Offensive coordinator Jeff Horton is now the head coach and he has had to make difficult decisions even this week. Defensive tackle and captain, Brandon Kirksey, has been suspended for undisclosed reason. In addition, he has been forced to suspend defensive back Michael Carter and defensive lineman Ra

15* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Virginia Tech set to start on ESPN at 8:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Adding a 2* amount on the money line if available is a very attractive bet. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-14 ATS for 72% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.3 to 4.8 YPR. GT runs the triple option and are the best rushing team in the country gaining 317.4 rushing yards per game. My simulator shows a very high probability that they will rush for a minimum of 250 yards in this game. Note that GT 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards since 1992. Take Georgia Tech

15* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Ohio University set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 104-50 for 68% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and now facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Ohio has a solid running game and then uses the passing game to keep defenses honest. However, Buffalo is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo runs a more balanced offensive attack and I do strongly believe that Buffalo will establish the running game against Ohio. Note that Ohio is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The biggest factor not evident in their overall records is that Buffalo has played a far more difficult schedule then Ohio and this

15* graded play Middle Tennessee State.
The technical side of this game supports Middle Tennessee State. Here is a system that has produced a 35-11 ATS record for 76% winners since 2005. Play against all teams in November where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games.

Game Situations
As mentioned above, I feel strongly that Middle Tennessee State will have a huge night on offense and there is a very high probability that they will eclipse the 28 points scored mark. Note that in past games where they have scored or exceeded 28 points scored they have posted an 11-1 ATS mark. Arkansas State has posted a 3-12 ATS mark when allowing 28 or more points in past games spanning the last three seasons.

Both teams make a ton of mistakes as evidenced by their respective penalty yards, but it is Arkansas State that fails to capitalize on those mistakes. Many times they have made numerous

15* graded play on the Texans as they take on the Colts set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Houston will lose this game by fewer than 5 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-9 ATS for 79.1% winners since 2005. Play on road teams with a horrible scoring defense allowing 27 or more points per game and after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. 44% of these games have covered by seven or more points and under scores the chance of a SU win by the Texans. I had the Packers yesterday lined in a similar game as my Top Rated 25* Inter-Conference Game of the Year winner and I would not be surprised to see the Texans win the game. Consider splitting this play into an 11* amount getting the points and a 4* amount on the money line. Colts are just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games facing bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Houston is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. It will be the Houston power running game that will be the dominant reason for an ATS and possible upset win tonight. The Colts defense is very good reacting to the ball, but they often over pursue and get caught sealed off cut back lanes. In my opinion, Houston is the best in the league and cut back running. If the Colts are disciplined in pursuit then the Texans will just simply pound the ball between the tackles until they get the defense out of position on the perimeter. Take Houston.

15* graded play on New England as they take on Minnesota set to start at 4:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New England will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-10 ATS for 76% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games facing an opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. 44% of these games played covered the spread by 7 or more points. Whether Favre starts or not is not a factor going into this game. It can only get worse for Minnesota if he does not start and head coach Childress has made statements that would cause any team to lose focus and dedication. Minnesota newspaper releases have stated that Favre

25* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take to the road to play the NY Jets set to start at 1:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than six points. The expected pace of play as evidenced by the posted total favors the Packers. Head coach McCarthy is a near perfect 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Jets may be flying high, but they have been beating in the stats in four of the past six games. Packers head coach McCarthy has a strong history of having his troops well prepared for tough road games posting a 13-3 ATS mark and 9-7 money line record when on the road installed as seven or fewer points. The Packers have been inconsistent stopping the run, but they will have prepared well for a Jets offense designed around the running game. They can show different looks including eight in the box per-snap and then either blitz, gap blitz, or drop off into under/over zones and or bracket zones. The Jets will be forced to use slide protection and keep back a running out of the pass routes to protect Sanchez. Under pressure, Sanchez is nearly always prone to poor decisions and turnovers under pressure. Packers wide receiver Donald Driver had his consecutive games streak catching at least one pass broken last week. However, this week he will have a huge advantage going up against Cromartie so look for Rogers to throw to Driver as many as 10 times in this game. Dareel Revis will be covering the speedster Greg Jennings so it stands to reason then that Cromartie will take on Driver.
The Packers run the ball well and they can spread the field with extra wide receivers to prevent safeties from coming up for run containment. The problem for the Jets is that is they to pinch inside to run the ball then Rogers can truly exploit that scheme with play action pass. Even the use of a flea flicker to an uncovered tight end is a real possibility. Moreover, Revis is not 100% - not even close - and as a result the Jets cannot get caught in deep man coverages or they will get burned for scores. Take the Packers.

15* graded play on Air Force as they host (8) Utah set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game.
I had Utah as a big 10* winner last week, but this is a very tough matchup for them taking to the road to play a vastly under rated Air Force Squad. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game and now facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Here is a second system supporting the upset bid and has produced a 24-7 record making 20.4 units since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line with an excellent offense averaging 6.1 or more yards per play and after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game. Utah head coach Wittingham is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. Air Force head coach Calhoun is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road. Air Force.

25* graded play on Washington as they host (13) Stanford set to start at 7:00 EST and will be televised by Versus. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. An alternative wager to consider is place a 20* amount on the line and a 5* on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 or fewer points last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Washington lost week at Arizona by the score of 44-14 and were six point dogs in that game. Stanford was home defeating Washington State last week and failed to cover as 37 point favorites. Here is a money line system that has produced a 118-46 mark for 72% winners and has made 49.7 units since 1992. Play on a home team using the money line and is a good rushing team gaining 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush and facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush.

As an optional wager place an extra 5* amount on Washington using the first half line. This play is reinforced by a perfect 9-0 against the first half line in home games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better since 1992.

This game features two of the best quarterbacks in the PAC-10 and the nation. Stanford

15* graded play on Auburn as they take on Mississippi set to start at 6 EST and will be televised on ESPN2. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by eight or more points. Auburn has rushed for more than 300 yards in their last three games. Auburn is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. There is no doubt the Auburn will dominate the line of scrimmage and wear down the Rebel defensive front. The Rebels have an excellent nose tackle in 320 pound Jerrell Powel, but he and his teammates need to do more than just hold their ground. Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn

15* graded play on Connecticut as they host West Virginia in a Big East showdown set to start at 8 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Connecticut will lose this game by fewer than six points and has an excellent shot at winning the game.
Problems on the offensive line
The West Virginia offensive line was largely the blame for the 19-14 loss to Syracuse, who were 13 1/2 point dogs. The failed miserably to even identify zone blitzes leading to forced throws and three interceptions by Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith. Syracuse also used delay blitzes effectively and again the offensive line failed to protect Smith.

Connecticut Defense is a Major Key
Connecticut has a far stronger and more athletic defense than Syracuse and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will use the Syracuse template as the foundation of his defensive scheme. I do not see how West Virginia can correct all the fundamental offensive line flaws and then to restore unity on that unit in just one week of practices. Moreover, Geno Smith is coming off his worst performance of the season and the early Connecticut pressure may crack his confidence with immediate negative results.

West Virginia is a defense first type of team and it shows in their national rankings. The Mountaineers rank fifth allowing 13.3 points per game. Their offensive rankings are rather pedestrian noting they are 61st overall in passing yards gaining 220.3 yards per game, 74th in rushing yards gaining 142.9 yards per game, and 69th points scored at 26.1 per game.

The Huskies will Run the Ball Well
The Connecticut Huskies running game will be a major factor in this game and they must be successful early to open up the offense through the play action pass to extend and spread the Mountaineer defense. The Huskies rank 33rd in rushing yards gaining 183.7 yards per game, 102nd in passing yards gaining 163.4 yards per game, and 60th in points scored at 28.1 per game. The Connecticut defense is solid and rank 48th in points allowed at 22.6 points per game.

Game within the Game
West Virginia runs a somewhat rare 3-3-5 defensive scheme featuring three safeties. Attacking this scheme with the power running game will be quite effective and may force West Virginia to move to a modified 3-4 to stop the run. If this should occur then it will open up the ball control pass plays in the flats for Connecticut. So, this will be an interesting chess match to watch unfold throughout the game.

Box expected to start
Freshman Michael Box is projected to start tonight for Connecticut. The 6

15* graded play on Florida State as they take on NC State set to start at 7:45 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-18 ATS for 70% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining between 175-230 passing yards per game and now facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is coming off arguably his worst start of his FSU career against BC. Good news is FSU is coming off a BYE week. Ponder has been dinged by several injuries and one of them to his throwing elbow. He hung several passes in the BC game and the elbow had to be a factor. The FSU ground game will be a major reason FSU wins this game and it will take pressure off of Ponder right from the start of the game. He then can get into the flow of the game and use play action pass to his advantage. The model shows that FSU will gain more than 5.5 yards per rush. Note that NC State is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992. Take FSU

15* graded play on Dallas as they take on the NY Giants set to start on MNF. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 4 or more points.Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-4 ATS for 86% winners since 2000. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games and is a team winning <=25% of their games playing a team with a winning record. Dallas will be highly successful running the ball. They must run the ball well to get the Giants defensive line to respect run and not wreak havoc in passing downs. They must make the Giants respect the play action pass potential where Dallas has their best matchups and strengths. Dalls is an amazing 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on Missouri as they take on Oklahoma set to start at 8 EST. Could it happen three straight weeks where the number one team in the nation and now the BCS rankings go down to defeat? Well, I certainly think so. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a tremendous chance to win the game. Missouri will be able to score in this game and will end up with 29 to 35 points. Note that Oklahoma is just 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992. Oklahoma had a hige day on the ground in their last game gaining 325 yards in their 52-0 shutout of Iowa State. Note, however, that Oklahoma is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.Supporting this graded play is a sound system that has produced a 30-9 record for 77% winners using the money line since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against a conference rival and now facing an opponent off a home win. Here is a second system that has gone 28-5 making 24.2 units for 85% winners since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line off two straight wins against conference rivals and with eight defensive starters returning. The dominant key to this game will be the Missouri defense and their sound tackling fundamental skills. The Oklahoma offense runs a lot of slants, screens, and drags, that are mostly effective because of the yards gained after the catch. Missouri has the defensive personnel to minimize yards after the catch and force Oklahoma into throwing downfield to get first downs. Take the Tigers and consider an optional bet placing an 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount on the money line.

10* graded play on Utah as they host Colorado State set to start at 6 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game by more than 31points. A complete and monumental mismatch with Colorado State 2-5 and Utah ranked ninth nationally and 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Mountain West. Rams rank 109th nationally in scoring offense and that includes last week

10* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Clemson set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Georgia Tech has a significant probability of losing this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at winning this game straight up. So consider splitting this bet into two parts with money line and line wagers. Georgia Tech is off a 42-14 blowout win over Middle Tennessee State installed as 18 1/2 point favorites. Georgia Tech is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has gone 33-10 making 31.9 units since 1992. Play against a home team using the money line after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. Take Georgia Tech.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Tennessee set to start on Monday Night Football at 8:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-8 making 21.1 units since 1983. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 and is an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG and now facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Jacksonville is 6-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 17-4 against the money line (+17.4 Units) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992. Look for TE Mercedes Lewis to have a big game against the Titans, especially in the Red Zone. Tennessee ranks best in Red Zone defense, but JAX has very favorable matchups and can create strong man situations to get touchdown scores.

15* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a meaningful chance to win the game straight up. Consider splitting the wager into two parts with an 11* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. McNabb gets a prime time showdown against Manning, but will be competing for viewers with the World Series Game 2 featuring Philadelphia hosting San Francisco taking place at the same time. That

25* graded play on Dallas as they host the Minnesota Vikings set to start at 4:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game.

Elbow tendonitis is effecting Brett Favre, but I truly think it might be a greater distraction like a really angry and spurned spouse. Dallas racked up over 500 yards in total offense and only their mistakes caused them to lose to Tennessee last week. One of these teams is going to be 1-4 and it will be the Vikings. Dallas is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of minus two or worse since 1992; 8-1 against the money line (+7.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 29-12 for 71% winners and has made 19.2 units since 2000. Play against home teams with a money line of +130 to -150 off 1 or more straight overs and with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points per game.

25* graded play on Auburn as they host Arkansas set to start at 3:30 EST and will be televised by CBS. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than four points. No.7 Auburn host No. 14 Arkansas and their Heisman trophy hopeful Ryan Mallet in this big time SEC showdown. Auburn has won three of it

15* graded play on South Florida as they take on West Virginia set to start at 7:30 and will be televised by ESPN and available on ESPN3. Add an optional 2* amount on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SF will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. South Florida has had WVU

15* graded play on Marshall as the take on University of Central Florida. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games facing an opponent after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. UCF head coach O

25* graded play on the Jets as they take on Minnesota set to start at 8:30 EST on Monday Night Football. Also, a 5* on the Jets using the first half line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the NY Jets will win this game by more than six points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 49-18 for 73.1% winners since 1983. Play on favorites off a win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. 51% of these plays have covered by seven or more points and the system is 4-1 ATS for 80% winners over the last three seasons. Jets are a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=285 yards per game since 1992. Head Coach Childress is an imperfect Childress is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off two or more consecutive

15* graded play on the 49ers and a 5* amount on the 49ers using the first half line as they take on the Eagles set to start at 8:20 EST on Sunday Night Football. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by more than 4 points. No team since the 1992 San Diego Chargers have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-4. The 49ers are in arguably the weakest division in the NFL and can still make a run for the division title, BUT they MUST win this game first. Vick is out due to injured cartilage in his ribs and backup Kolb is starting for the Eagles. In Week1 it was Kolb, the face of the future of the Eagles franchise and Vick the backup. Point is that with an already weak offensive line, the Eagles offense just have not played together long enough for any sort of meaningful chemistry to have developed. Starting RB LeSean McCoy is questionable and has injured ribs so backup Mike Bell will get the start. He has not started since last season when he was a member of the Saints. 49er head coach is going to bring pressure from every possible angle and gap available. I would not be surprised to see the 49er defense show and intense

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on New Orleans set to start at 4:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-10 for 77% winners since 1983. Play on any team that is a poor offensive team scoring 14.5 to 18 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 points per game and after allowing 40 points or more last game. 49% of these teams covered the spread by 7 or more points and supports the possible upset win for Arizona. Here is a second system that has produced a 36-13 ATS record for 74% winners. Play on dogs or pick and are poor teams being out rushed by opponents by 40 or more rushing yards per game and now facing a team who is out rushed by 60 or more yards per game. Here is a third system that has gone 28-6 against the MONEY LINE for 82.4% winners since 1983. Play on home teams using the money line that is an average rushing team gaining 95 to 125 yards per game facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing 125 to 150 yards per game and after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their last game. Arizona is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning better than 75% of their games since 1992; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last three seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Considering the matchups and the simulator projections I fully believe that the Cardinals will gain better than 6 yards per play. Over the past three seasons, Cardinals are a solid 15-5 ATS when they gain better than 6 yards per play in a game. Take Arizona.

15* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Indianapolis set to start at 1 EST. The KC running game will be the dominant reason that KC will cover this number. This is a strong play that warrants your consideration for an alternative bet. Split the 10* amount into 2 parts with a 12* on the line and a 3* on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 19-10 making 19.4 units since 2005. Play on road teams using the money line that are not strong - or pass first - passing teams gaining between 150 and 185 passing yards per game and now facing an average passing defense allowing 185 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Colts are off a very tough loss against JAX last week losing on a 59 yard field goal. Many times the public automatically assumes that since they lost a game they are going to be even more focused and angry to win big in the next. Never always the case and what it does do is to inflate the line and provide opportunity to bet the opponent. Note that the Colts are just 4-15 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992. Colts will not gain more than 100 yards rushing in this game. KC is on a 4-2 ATS run the past three years and 42-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 75 to 100 yards rushing in a game. No doubt in my mind that KC will control the tempo and the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this game. The running game will get more than 150 yards and the Colts are just 3-9 ATS the past three seasons and a 23-69 ATS since 1992 when the allow more than 150 yards rushing in a game. Take KC

25* graded play on Iowa State as they host (10) Utah set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a tremendous opportunity to win the game. This is the first time that Utah has faced a Big-12 foe since 2004 and after this game they want to go another six seasons not playing a Big-12 opponent. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play on a home team off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home dog in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a MONEY LINE system supporting my expectation for an upset win and has produced a 31-6 record for 84% winners since 1992. Don

15* graded play on Syracuse as they take on South Florida set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than eight points. They also have a strong shot at winning this game straight up and is supported by the following system that has gone 40-12 making 46.5 units since 2005 for 77% winners. Play on a road team versus the money line off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more in weeks 5 through 9. Based on the model projections and matchup analysis I see Syracuse scoring more than 28 points. Note that Syracuse is 61-10 against the money line when scoring 28 or more points since 1992. South Florida is just 1-7 against the money line when they allow 28 or more points over the past three seasons. Granted, it was only Colgate, but Syracuse is off a 42-7 win covering the 29 1/2 point spread. Syracuse is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. Take Syracuse.

15* graded play on Rutgers as they host UCONN set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN and ESPN3 on the internet. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than five points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since being the head coach of Rutgers, Schiano has posted an 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after having lost two out of their last three games; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) facing good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 59-28 and has made 37.3 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line off an upset loss as a favorite and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Rutgers is off a horrid loss to Tulane 17-14 and were installed as 17 point favorites. Practice sessions this week involved some very upset coaches and Rutgers will play very well tonight on a national stage. As an alternative play consider making tow bets with a 11* on the line and a 4* using the generous money line. Take Rutgers.

(Tuesday) 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State (MTS) as they host Roy set to start at 8 EST Tuesday on ESPN2 and can be seen on ESPN3 as well. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that MTS will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference matchup that are excellent offensive teams scoring >=34 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. The simulator also shows a high probability that MTS will score more than 28 points. Note that in past games they are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last two seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last two seasons. MTS is off a very strong conference win defeating LA-Lafayette 34-14 as two point favorites. Note that since Stockstill was hired as the head coach of MTS he is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The crowd will be up for this game since it is on ESPN2 and the students are advising everyone to wear

15* graded play on the New England Patriots as they visit the Miami Dolphins set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised on Monday Night Football. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New England will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 49-18 ATS for 73.1% winners since 1983. Play on favorites off a win against a division rival when playing the next game on Monday night. 51% of these games have covered by seven or more points. This system is also 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 9-2 ATS the past five seasons. New England ran the ball extremely well against Buffalo last week gaining 200 yards on 38 carries. They are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Since Belichick has been head coach of the Patriots he has produced a 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when facing good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points per game. Considering the matchups and the simulator projections New England will gain more than six yards per play in this game. Note that New England is 41-17 ATS since 1992 when the gain six or yards per play and the Dolphins are 24-47 ATS when the allow six or more yards per play since 1992. Miami may opt to use the Wildcat far less in this game since the emergence of Henne and Marshall as play makers in the passing game. However, I really like the Patriots rookie cornerback Devin McCourty, who will be covering Marshall in man situations. He has the talent and skills to blanket Marshall the entire game. Another matchup I truly like is Brady to tight end Aaron Hernandez. The Jets used their tight end and Sanchez threw successfully on several occasions in safety coverage situations. Hitting Hernandez on ball control pass plays combined with the strong running game will set up high percentage play action pass plays to Moss, who will be in man coverage. Take New England.

15* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Bears set to start on Sunday Night Football beginning at 8:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-27 for 70% winners since 1983. Play against any team off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog and with a winning record on the season. Chicago is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when facing good passing defenses allowing 175 or less passing yards per game since 1992; 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games when facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=6 yards per play since 1992. Bears head coach Smith is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) i n road games when facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt. NY Giants head coach Coughlin is a solid 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Getting into Cutler

25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on Houston set to start at 4:05 EST. The Raiders offense has come to life and they are moving the ball with great proficiency between the 20 yard lines. Problem has been that there are just two teams worse in red zone execution this season. Penalties have been a problem as well and again those in the red zone have negated strong scoring opportunities. Penalties is certainly something the coaching staff has addressed publicly and Oakland will play with renewed discipline this week. The Oakland defense has been extremely good holding both the Rams and Arizona to season low offensive totals. One of the dominant reasons why has been the superb play of Nnamdi Asomugha, who held Arizona Cardinal Fitzgerald to one reception. Houston

15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in a big showdown of top ranked teams. Florida comes in to this road game ranked number-7 while Alabama is ranked best team in the land. That may all change here based on my research. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by fewer than eight points and has a reasonable opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-30 for 70% winners since 2000. Play against home favorites off 2 consecutive road wins in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a money line system supporting the upset Gator bid that has produced a 42-14 mark for 75% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is undefeated on the season. I also see this being a high scoring game and one that Florida will score more than 28 points. Note that this is a very pivotal number for both teams noting Alabama is just 7-34 against the money line (-49.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 41-8 against the money line (+26.0 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Florida is also 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points per game on the season over the last three seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. Perhaps the most important angle is this one that shows how Meyer prepares his team when in the role of an underdog. He is an astounding 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. It will be the Florida offense that will shine big in this game in my opinion. I like the Gator version of the Wildcat using Trey Burton, who scored five touchdowns in last week

15* graded play on Indiana as they take on Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Both teams start their Big-10 conference schedule undefeated and this game is going to be far closer than most expect. Michigan

25* graded play on Illinois as they take Ohio State set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Ohio State travels to Champagne, Illinois, where they have not lost since 1991, to start their conference season. The Buckeyes are off to a strong 4-0 start covering all four games and all four playing

15* graded play on Utah State as they host BYU set to start Friday night starting at 8 EST and will be televised on ESPN and can be viewed on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah State will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Utah State has a big advantage on offense returning eight starters including their quarterback. This experience and leadership matches up very well against a BYU defense returning just five starters. Utah State will establish the run and the model shows that they will gain more than 150 yards on the ground. Note that in past games BYU is just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992. BYU is also just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing mistake prone teams getting called for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-14 using the MONEY LINE and has made 29.6 units since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and in a game involving two bad teams winning between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Utah State.

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on any team after allowing 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Texas A&M returns nine on defense while Oklahoma State returns just four starters. A&M also returns seven offensive starters including the quarterback and this leader and experience is a huge advantage going up against an inexperienced Oklahoma State secondary. Since Gundy became the head coach of the Cowboys he is just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards per carry. Here is a money line system that has produced an excellent record of 23-6 making 21.7 units for 79% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line with a good passing defense allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in three straight games. Oklahoma State leads the nation in yards per game and has the No.1 receiver in Justin Blackmon and NO. 3 passer in Brandon Weedan, BUT this team nearly lost to Troy 41-38. Texas A&M brings a vastly under rated defense to this game and they will shut down the running game. This in turn takes away the option for play action pass and to get Blackmon in favorable man coverage situations. I do not see A&M needing to bring the safety to the line of scrimmage for run support. Let

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they host the Eagles set to start at 4:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-6 ATS for 81% winners since 2005. Play on home teams after a loss by 21 or more points and now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Philadelphia management is not on the same page and there is NO way anyone can tell me that Andy Ried changed his mind after further review of the films. His talk that the QB change was made due to the poor offensive line is almost laughable. How is that even supportive for that OL Group of players? Eagles owner Laurie made a trip to Ried

15* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Baltimore set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-6 for 81% winners since 1983. Play against home teams that are good passing teams from last season and had a completion percentage of 60% or better and after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt in last game. 57% of these plays have covered the spread by seven or more points. The Browns Josh Cribbs will be a big factor in this game and getting the ball to him will support the running game. The Brows do have a significant advantage with the offensive line and a dominant one is tackle Joe Thomas going up against Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs. Thomas will win this battle and this will enable the Browns to make this a very close game throughout. Take the Browns.

15* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 1 REST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 24-6 for 80% winners since 2005. Play on home teams versus the money line off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with the game taking place in the first half of the season. Steelers are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a road favorite of three points or less since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off 2 or more consecutive

15* graded play on Arizona State as they host (5) Oregon set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and also has a reasonable shot at the upset of number 5 ranked Oregon. ASU head coach Erickson is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 20-8 for 71% winners against the money line making 22.4 units since 2005. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 3.25 or less yards per play in their previous game and with eight defensive starters returning. Here is another money line system that has produced a 21-8 record for 72.4% winners since 2000. Play against a road team in September using the money line after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite. ASu quarter Threet is 6-5 and he has a very quick release and will completely neutralize the speed advantage that oregon has on the defensive perimeter. If Oregon brings pressure then Threet can easily throw to the flat to hit a RB or a better option is to hit Aaron Pflugrad in space or defended by a slower linebacker. The ASU tackles can make certain they have inside protection and give a shove outward to the defensive ends. Draw plays will have huge lanes with which to scoot through. ASU can win this game. Take ASU with the points.

25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Texas set to start at 3:30 EST and will be televised on ABC TV and seen on in the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Texas may have put up good numbers last week against Texas Tech, but they are going to have their hands full with UCLA and head ocah Neuheisel

20* graded play on SMU as they take on TCU set to start at 8 EST Friday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-29 for 69% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites that are excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in two straight games. SMU has played a tough schedule in their first three games and this prepares them well to compete against number 4 TCU. SMU HC Jones is a near perfect 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. SMU will run the ball successfully and this in turn will setup solid play action pass opportunities down the seams. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron is a vastly under rated and executed extremely well against Washington State last week. TCU is going to have problems defending the run and WR Aldrick Robinson. TCU runs a somewhat rare 4-2-5 defensive scheme using three safeties. They are aggressive and will show multiple looks to confuse Padron. The read he needs to make to is to identify where free safety Jejay Johnson is lined up. If he is closing in towards the line of scrimmage for run support than Padron can look for crossing routes. If he is back, then a check off to a running play or attacking the perimeter with

10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Miami (Fla) set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a solid chance to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-14 making 34.8 units and 76.3% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams on Thursday nights using the money line after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 50-14 mark for 78.1% winners and has made 36.8 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and returning 5 or less offensive starters with a new starting QB in the first month of the season. Here is a third money line system that has gone 26-10 making 20.6 units for 72.2% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams in non conference games using the money line in a game involving two average passing teams gaining between 6.4-7.5 passing yards per attempt. The simulator also shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will score more than 28 points and this puts Miami in a horrid role. Miami is just 9-39 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Pittsburgh.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Saints set to start at 8:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong opportunity to win this game. The 49ers were humiliated by Seattle in Week 1 31-6. Most alarming was that they did not show a sense of urgency after falling behind and appeared to accept the loss before the game was in the fourth quarter. You can bet a team coached by Mike Singletary is going to show up tonight focused and with energy for this very important game. The 49ers must get the ball to TE Vernon Davis a minimum of 10 times in this game. The Saints showed cover-2 the majority of plays against the Vikings. That defensive game plan worked extremely well, because the Vikings offensive game plan was to defend the blitz. The Saints cannot afford to commit to blitz or just cover-2 because of the presence of Davis. No doubt the 49ers will look to setup play action targeting Davis in the deep middle of the field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of of 30-25 using the MONEY LINE making 34 units with an average play of +197 DOG since 1983. Play on dogs versus the money line off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a road favorite. Fine tuning this system produces even better results with a 24-12 mark for 67% winners making 25.5 units with average play being a +156 DOG. Play on home dogs versus the money line off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite facing an opponent off a home win. SF is also a stout 10-3 against the money line (+9.1 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Take the 49ers.

10* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Colts set to start at 8:20 EST and will be televised on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. For many season the Colts have not concerned themselves with rushing the ball, but now they not only can

15* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by three points or less and has a great chance at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-33 ATS for 69% winners since 1983. Play against home teams in September where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss. Bucs did well of defense last week showing many different looks to the their base cover-2 scheme. Carolina quarterback Moore is going to have difficulty determining the defense until after the snap. This requires quick decision making under pressure and the Bucs will choose situations to jump out routes with deep help. The Bucs matchup very well against the Carolina offensive line, who had blocking assignment issues last week. Now, they face a 4-3 that can also drop a DE into coverage. Take the Bucs.

15* graded play on Miami as they take on the Vikings set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot an upset win. Supporting this graded play is a series of game situations. Miami is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a win by 6 or less points over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Making this more meaningful is that all of these situations have developed under the leader of head coach Sparano. Miami QB Henne will have the time to attack a depleted Vikings secondary that has just three healthy defenders. The Vikings cannot send pressure with zone blitzes and get caught in man situations involving Miami WR Marshall. Another factor allowing Henne time to scan the field will be the play of his left tackle Jake Long. In my opinion, he is the best left tackle in the NFL. Vikings DE Jared Allen was bottled up by the Saints LT Bushrod and a raucous dome crowd will not be able to help him. Take the Dolphins.

5* graded play on Wyoming as they host number 3 Boise State set to start at Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 21 points. Not this is a major factor for this game, but with Virginia Tech losing to James Madison it certainly brings a big question mark how big Boise State

15* graded play on Auburn as they host Clemson set to start at 7 EST and will be televised on ESPN and on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than seven points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-15 ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and are average passing teams gaining between 175 to 230 passing yards per game facing an average passing defense allowing 175 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The most important matchup in this game is between Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton matched up against Clemson safety DeAndre McDaniel. At 6