The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: 406 Auburn
The Matchup: Auburn  versus Mississippi

Start Time:  10-7-2017 12;00 PM

SIM grading: 7* wager

Recommended Strategy:

Round Table Discussion Points

Ole Miss travels back to the state of Alabama after getting taken out to the woodshed by Alabama and we look for a similar result here. The Rebel offense will face another top tier defense this week and the Auburn offense led by Jarred Stidham is starting to roll. Stidham is completing 72%of his passes and has a strong running game to keep the offense balanced. Auburn has put away its last 2 opponents early and we look for more of the same today. Take Auburn and lay the points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 40-14 ATS hitting 74% winners and has made 24.6units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points.

After 2 straight wins by 21 or more points.

Against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.

Defense Data Query

Play any team allowing 14 or less points the last 2 games.

Facing a team allowing 37 or more points the last game 65% winners last 10 years

Here is another data query that has gone 15-7 ATS and 21-1 SU in the SEC since 1984.

Play against team allowing 37 points last game.

Facing a team winning 2 straight games by 28 or more points.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Auburn is 8-1 when scoring 28 or more points the last 2 years

Malzahn is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of Auburn.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Auburn Tigers.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: Penn State (331)
The Matchup: PENN ST (5 - 0) at NORTHWESTERN (2 - 2)
Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 12:00 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars

Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on Penn State on the line. For example, a $100 per ‘star’ player would make a $700 play on Penn State.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following data query has gone 60-24 ATS hitting 71.4% winners and has made $3,360 per $100 wager since 2008.

Play on road favorites in a conference matchup.

That are Excellent rushing team gaining at least 4.8 YPR.

And is now facing a poor rushing team gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

PSU is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt.

PSU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

PSU is 35-9 ATS (+25.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points.

PSU is 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

PSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

NWU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play.

NWU is just  9-41 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on New England (303) as they take on Tampa Bay in NFL action set to start at   8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 8 points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 24-5 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 18,5 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play on road favorites.

Excellent passing team averaging 255 or more passing yards/game.

After allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Patriots are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

Patriots are  40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.

Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Belichick is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs (280) as they take on Washington in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that KC will win this game by more than 9 points.

For those that love playing money lines, the line is looking a bit cheap currently at -280. So, that too is an attractive, yet far more riskier wager based on ROI analysis.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following data query  has gone 19-7 ATS for 73% winners and 24-3 SU since 1989.

Play against road dogs.

That are off a home dog SU win covering by 20 or more points.

That are winning record teams.

That are now taking to ther road installed as dogs.

And Facing an opponent that has a winning record on the season.

The spreadsheet shown above displays all of the query results since 1989.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Buffalo (267) as they take on Atlanta in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win this game.

Play a 7* wager using the line OR

Play a 5* wager using the line and a 2* wager using the money line.

Round Table Discussion Points

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 60-27 ATS hitting 69% winners and has made 30.3 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play on road teams (BUFFALO).

Team is off 1 or more straight ‘overs’.

Team is averaging just 17 or less points/game.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Atlanta is just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Matt Ryan is 7-15 ATS as a home favorite of -4 ½ to -11 points.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bills and look for the shocking upset win.

The Play and how to Play it:

168 Texas A&M -89-30-2017 7:30 PM

7 Units Texas A&M -8 versus South Carolina

Round Table Discussion Points

We feel South Carolina is not as good as their 3-1 record. The Gamecocks came from behind last week to beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 and have a struggling offense. Texas A7M did the same last week coming back to beat Arkansas by 7 in overtime. The Aggies did put up 50 points in that game. Kevin Sumlin needs to keep winning to keep the Alums happy and the offense led by Kellen Mond has been clicking and the Aggies have some big play capabilities on defense. South Carolina has had numerous injuries and lost their best offensive weapon Deebo Samuel last week for the season. This is an offense that struggles and we don’t see them keeping pace with the Aggies today. Texas A&M won the last 3 against South Carolina and we look for a fourth today. Take Texas A&M and lay the 8 points

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive .

3 Strong Data Trends on the Aggies in this one.

Texas A&M is 107-58 when scoring 28 or more points since 1992.

South Carolina is 24-73 when allowing 28 points.

South Carolina is 5-17 when outgained by 100 to 150 yards since 1992.

South Carolina is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Texas A&M.

The Play and how to Play it:

190 Auburn -99-30-2017 6:00 PM

4 Units Auburn -9 Versus Mississippi State

Round Table Discussion Points

Mississippi State comes into this game taking a conference loss at Georgia last week 31-3 and now must face another strong defense again this week. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham is starting to get comfortable with Gus Malzahn’s playbook, Stidham is completing a little over 70% on his attempts and today gets to play a big game in front of the Tiger faithful. The Tigers defense is stout against both the run and pass. Last year Auburn went to Starkville and won 38-14 jumping out to a 35-0 lead before putting it in cruise control. The personnel is similar and now the Tigers get the Bulldogs at home. The Bulldogs offense struggled at Georgia last week and we look for more of the same this week. Big expectations for Auburn this year and the Tigers look to go 2-0 in conference play today. Take Auburn and lay the 9 points

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

Play on any team allowing 17 points or less in last 2 games versus opponent scoring 6 or less in last game. 16 -4 ATS last 5  years good for 80% winners.

The average cover has been by 13.7 PPG. The four losses show that only one lost the game SU.

Matching SIM data queries

Mississippi State is 28-47 ATS after scoring 14 or less in previous game since 1992

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Tigers.

117 South Florida -23 9-30-2017 12:00 PM

7 Units South Florida -23 at East Carolina

Some strong data trends on South Florida in this one.

ECU is 2-11 when allowing 28 or more points the last 2 years

ECU is 0-6 against opponents scoring over 31 points per game the last 2 years.

Play on road teams off a home win with 4 or more starters and experience QB against team with new QB is 47-18 ATS last 5 years.

Round Table Discussion Points

Along with the strong trends we get a South Florida team who has their sights on an undefeated season and a big Bowl Game this year. Charlie Strong inherited a team with a top notch defense and an explosive QB in Quinton Flowers. The Bulls return 16 starters from last year’s 9-2 Bowl Team. Last year South Florida won 38-22 and the Bulls are much better while the Pirates are allowing 48 points per game. The Bulls only let up 17 points per game and the offense is balanced with both the run and pass and a very athletic QB. This is a team who can line up against any of the power-5 schools and we get them against a bad team today. Take South Florida -23 as the Bulls will be running today.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.

The recommended play is to make a 7* wager on the line.

An optional wager is to make a 5* play using the line and then a 2* wager using the money line.

Round Table Discussion Points

Eli Manning has consistently targeted his TE, Engram’s way through the first two weeks, targeting him a total of 12 times, tied for ninth most in the league among tight ends. The rookie could potentially have a tough matchup this week, coming up against linebacker Jordan Hicks. However, Hicks has had a surprisingly slow start to his third season, currently grading as the second worst linebacker in the league among 78 qualifying linebackers.

The key matchup, though, will be Odell Beckham, Jr. against Rasul Douglas or Jalen Mills, who are both rookie corners. Douglas is the better of the two through two weeks, so look for the Giants to force the matchup onto Jalen Mills. Whether ODB is 80% or not, any rookie corner is going to be overwhelmed by his athleticism and size.

The fact that ODB is even on the field presents significant matchup problems for the Eagles. This will open up better opportunities for Eli to target his TE, which will open up the gaps in the running game too.

Giants have not been able to rush the ball or even establish the run since they have fallen behind in each of their first two games. However, teams that have rushed for 99 or less yards in two straight games are a solid 35-24 ATS for 59% winners since the start of the 2016 season. In NFC East games only, these teams are a perfect 3-0 ATS.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

Giants are 0-2 and in full desperation mode. Making matters worse is that they now find themselves on the road against a division foe in a very, very hostile environment. As a rule that we are taught as young children, never approach a wounded animal and this is certainly the case in this matchup.

In the NFC, since 2006 season, these matchups have seen the 0-2 loser go 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winners.

When these wounded animals take to the road , they are 5-1 ATS and SU since 2006. Since, 1989, these traveling winless teams have gone 13-9 SU and 14-8 ATS.

As you can see from the data above, the times that these dogs don’t come through, they are absolutely destroyed. In 2013, the Giants were destroyed 38-0 and were installed as 1 ½ point favorites.

There is more data that supports a strong effort from the Giants. They are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.

The Play and how to Play it:

10* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  PSU will win this game by more than 14 points.

Round Table Discussion Points

Sometimes the matchup is Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley trying to beat a loaded up box through the air, but this one is all about if the Hawkeyes can slow down or stop No. 26 in white. Even when holes haven’t there for Barkley he has simply burned team through the air, hauling in 11 catches for 241 yards and two touchdowns so far. Iowa will just not be able to contain all of the PSU offensive weapons for the entire game.

The PSU offensive line has been fantastic as well in all types of formations. If Iowa does load the box, look for Barkey to come out of the backfield and line up in the slot before the snap (late in the time clock). Iowa will have no choice, but to have a LB on him. Causing added confusion for Iowa, is if they want to use a safety to help to double Barkley, the middle of the field will be vast plain of open area for crossing routes with the TE and WR. As the metrics show, there is only a minimal chance that this Iowa defense could hold PSU to fewer than 28 points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

PSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt.

PSU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

PSU is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points over the last 3 seasons.

PSU is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play.

PSU 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

PSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Iowa is just 19-64 ATS (-51.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Iowa is  3-24 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41.

Iowa is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

Iowa is  5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt.

Iowa is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they score 15 to 21 points.

Iowa is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play.

Iowa is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play.

Iowa is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards.

Iowa is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play.

Iowa is 4-28 ATS (-26.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play.

PSU has scored 50+ points in 2 of their first three games and now find themselves installed as double digit favorites on the road against an undefeated host. Teams in this role are a perfect 13-0 and 10-3 ATS, and 9-4 ‘UNDER’ over the past 2 seasons.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Georgia (324) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at  7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 10 points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 78-18 hitting 81% winners using the money line and has made  38 units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play against road underdogs using the money line.

Off a home win by 17 points or more.

In the first month of the season.

After closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins.

M-State is coming off a huge epoch win destroying then ranked LSU as 8.5 point dogs. In SEC play, these types of emotional wins do not follow through into the next game, especially when it’s on the road. Teams in this role and installed as 3 point or more road warriors are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in SEC action.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bulldogs of Georgia.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Vanderbilt (380) as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 17 points.

7* amount using the line, which is currently at 18.5 points.

2* using the money line, which is averaging about +825 at majority of books offering this opportunity.

This is 9* amount of risk, but it is well defined and disciplined. The combination of the two parts reflects an optimized ROI.

Round Table Discussion Points

Every season, there is that one game where my technology will identify a DOG of greater than 17 points and by some terrestrial act, they end up up pulling off the epoch upset. The problem is that I don’t believe there ever will be a technology that will be able to accurately identify these games. If there was, then why would we watch this game or any sporting event as it is the thrill of the unknown that brings such great passion to live sporting events. I am very confident, though, that Vanderbilt will give Alabama a true test.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward  opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Vanderbilt is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit  say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.

We have a large set of data queries that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.

   So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 39-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points.

After 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.

And has a winning record on the season.

Since the start of the 2013 season, this data query has produced a 7-2 ATS mark good for 78% winners with an average cover of 8.4 points. In 2016, it went 3-1 ATS with TWO straight up winners.

The upset alert dogs that pulled off the upset win last year was first Penn State, who had the miracle win over Ohio State installed as 18 point home dogs and won the game 24-21. The second game was when Houston hosted Louisville as 16 point dogs and destroyed them 36-10.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Vanderbilt.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Arizona as they take on in  action set to start at  PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  will win this game.

The recommended play is to wager a 5* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 55-21 ATS hitting 72.4% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 2013.

Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.

After a win by 17 or more points.

And is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game.

In 2014, the query went 12-9 SU and a solid 16-5 ATS for 76.2% ATS winners and an average coverage of 8.2 points.

In 2015, the query produced a 11-15 SU mark and went 19-7 ATS good for 65.4% ATS winners with the average ATS coverage of 5.4 points.

In 2016, this query produced a SU mark of 7-13 and a very strong 15-5 ATS good for 75% ATS winners with an average coverage of of 3.7 points.

In all of PAC-12 action since 2012, the query has produced a 6-14 SU mark, but has been a money maker with a 15-5 ATS mark.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Arizona.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers (302) as they take on the Los Angeles Rams in  NFL Thursday Night football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Fran will win this game.

Make a 7* wager getting the points on SF.

Combination wager consisting of a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line.

Optional: Make a 3* reverse parlay wager using the line and the ‘OVER’.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 34-11 ATS hitting 76% winners and has made 22.0 units/unit wagered since the beginning of the 2008 season. Of the 45 games played, 60% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points and under scores the upset potential for the 49ers.

Play on any team.

After scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games.

The spreadsheet above is displaying the last 5 seasons of results for the data query. Over the past 5 seasons, it has produced a 10-4 SU mark, 11-3 ATS mark, and a 10-4 ‘OVER’  mark.

The average SU margin has been 4.86 points and the average spread cover has been by 7.8 points and the total points has covered the ‘over’ by an average of 9.3 points.

Rams find themselves installed as a modest favorite for the third straight game. The Rams are an imperfect 0-5 ATS in this role coming off a home loss.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the 49ers and the other recommended wagers.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the RAMS (282) as they take on the Redskins in NFL action set to start at  4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game by more than 6 points.

Round Table Discussion Points

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 38-5 hitting 88% winners and has made 32.5 units/unit wagered since 2008.

Play against road teams using the money line.

Off a home loss by 10 or more points.

And now facing an opponent off a home win.

These road money burners have gone just 17-25-1 ATS for 40% winners.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Wyoming (186) as they take on Oregon in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oregon will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and can possibly pull off the home upset.

The recommended strategy is to place a 7* amount on the line and then add a 2.5* amount using the money line. We also like playing ‘over’ the first half  total for a 3* amount. If you want to add more defined risk, then consider playing a reverse parlay with Wyoming on the money line and the ‘over’ and Wyoming plus the points and the ‘over’ for 1* each.

Round Table Discussion Points

The Wyoming Cowboys comes off an easy win against Gardner & Webb while the Oregon Ducks beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Eugene last week. The Ducks took a big lead into the locker room at halftime and did not show up in the second half, but still held on to beat the Cornhuskers. Wyoming played a tough road game to begin the season at Iowa and struggled against the physical Hawkeye defense. The Cowboys stop troops have played well this year and can limit the big play capabilities of the Oregon offense. Future pro QB Josh Allen should find the sledding a little easier against the Oregon defense. Big game in Laramie for the Cowboys and we look for Allen to make enough plays to keep this one close throughout. Take Wyoming and the generous amount of points.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

The games shown above are when Oregon has allowed their opponent to score 28 or more points since the 2015 season inclusive. In these games, they have gone just 4-8 SU and a miserable money burning 2-9-1 ATS. The ‘over’ has been a successful wager going 7-4-1. So, the Bayesian probability analyses overwhelmingly project that Wyoming will score 28 points and with potential to achieve that level before the end of the first half.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 23-11 using the Money Line hitting 68% winners and has made 22.4 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive +145 dog play.

Play on a home team using the money line.

After allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

And is now facing an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Wyoming Cowboys.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on LSU (187) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by at least 11 points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 55-21 hitting 72.4% winners and has made 31.9 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play on road favorites.

After allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

And facing an opponent where 60 total points or more were scored in their last game.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

LSU is a solid 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards.

LSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

LSU is 103-53 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

LSU is  24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

M-State is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 points.

M-State is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt.

M-State is 7-32 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards.

M-State is  5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play.

M-State is 10-44 ATS (-38.4 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the LSU Tigers.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Temple (106) as they take on UMASS in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.

Make a straight 7* wager amount on Temple minus the points.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 35-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points.

The team outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game

Current game is a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

UMASS is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

UMASS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards.

UMASS is a near imperfect  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for 2 to 2.5 yards per attempt.

UMASS is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards.

UMASS is an imperfect 0-15 ATS (-16.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards.

Temple is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Temple is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards.

Temple is  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Temple is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points.

Temple is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Temple is  15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Temple Owls.

Team Analysis 

Seatlle- Seattle has a weakness in its O-line, but their skill players are what shows promise this season. QB Russell Wilson has developed solid in-the-pocket skills in a spread passing attack, while maintaining his ability to improvise on the move. WR Doug Baldwin can beat defenders in a number of ways, while TE Jimmy Graham still causes matchup problems. RB Thomas Rawls is a violent runner, while change-of-pace RB C.J. Prosise looked great in limited action as a rookie. The Seahawks gave up the third fewest points and the lowest yards per carry average in the league last season.

Green Bay- Not much more I can say about Aaron Rodgers that you don’t already know. WR Jordy Nelson is nearly impossible to cover one-on-one, and Rodgers makes up for the lack of talent in the rest of his receiving group. RB Ty Montgomery impressed after moving from WR, but his durability is questionable and the Packers lack depth at RB. Two second-round picks, CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones, need to get up to speed quickly. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett are a solid safety combo, but if the Packers can't cover, they'll be forced into many shootouts.

Recent Trends

Seattle

Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. 
Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. 
Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games in September. 

Green Bay

Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. 
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games on grass. 
Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games in Week 1. 

Head to Head

Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay. 
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. 
Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings. 

Personal Analysis

Although the Seahawks play a better team on paper, something about Rodgers and his competitiveness seems to be concerning. Along with Rodgers comes the notorious Lambeau field lure. As you can see from the trends, it’s not looking too optimistic for the Seahawks. This should be a tight game early, but the Packers will come out on top and cover the spread.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the LA Rams (472) as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game.

If you like the money line play only, we have no issue with that strategy. Make certain you are risking a 7* amount, which at current money lines of -200 would be a wager risking 7* amount to make a 3.5* amount.

Round Table Discussion Points

Not good numbers for either team in this one based on last year’s performance metrics. We like the fact that a much improved Rams defense will be going up against Scott Tolzien, who has not won a game in his career as a starter. Today we get to lay a field goal with a team, who has the better defense and offense against a team who will be without their QB field general today. This is the second year for Ram QB Jared Goff and we look for some major improvement this year. Also, Goff has additional playmakers to work with this season. Look for Todd Gurley to get off to a good start against the weak Colts defense front five. This in turn will force the Colts linebackers to creep closer to the LOS to cover the A and B gaps. Then, Goff, will have play action knowing his WR are in man coverage.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 48-20 using the money line hitting 71% winners and has made 25.3 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play against any team using the money line.

Poor passing defense from last season that allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt.

In non-conference games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Pagano is just 2-8 against the money line (-8.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Colts.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams.

7* graded play on  the Chicago Bears (456) as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 NFL  action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will cover this number and may win this game.

The recommended strategy is to make this release a combination wager using a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

We are expecting the Bears ground attack led by Howard to present quite a problem for the Atlanta defensive front. The SIm projects that the Bears will have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games where Atlanta allowed 125 or more rushing yards, they are 23-42 ATS since 1992 and 58-125-2 ATS since 1980. This situation is not exclusive to the Falcons, but it is one that applies to the majority of matchups in the NFL.

Since the 2013 season, the Falcons are 5-10 ATS and 3-12 SU when allowing more than 150 rushing yards.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 22-4 ATS hitting 85% winners and has made 17.6 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play on any team team.

That had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season.

In conference matchups..

Super Bowl Losers have an extended hangover and the Falcons certainly should have that in place after their historic collapse. SB losers are just 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS since 2000 season.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears.

The play and how to Play it:

10* graded play on Auburn (377) as they take on Clemson in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  Auburn will win this game.

We see current lines at Clemson installed as a five point favorite. 67% of the best wagered are on Clemson, but the large bettors are on the Tigers as evident by the line moving lower from the -6 opening level. The analytics clearly show a high probability that this line will move to 4.5.

The recommended strategy is to play a 5* amount on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The money line is currently at +170

Round Table Discussion Points

Auburn comes into this game off an easy 41-7 game against Georgia Southern while Clemson was beating up Kent State 36-3. The Clemson Tigers return 12 starters from last years National Championship team with 7 on the defensive side of the Ball. Auburn returns 15 starters from last years 8-5 Bowl team. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant went 16/22 for 236 yards with a TD and an interception in his first start taking over for the dynamic Deshaun Watson. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham struggled some in his first start for the Tigers after transferring from Baylor. Stidham went 14/24 for 185 yards with 2 TD’s and a pick. Both teams rushed the ball well last week and the defenses were stellar. Clemson beat Auburn by 6 last year at Auburn and we look for a very tight game again this year, but this time around there is no Deshaun Watson. This is a big early game for both teams and look for the offense minded Gus Malzahn to come up with a little more wrinkles to the offense and possibly even steal a game in Death Valley.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 40-11 hitting 78.4% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

In the first month of the season.

After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.

Team that had a winning record last season.

This money line query has produced incredible results and underscores the probability that Auburn will win this game. It has produced a 19-7 mark and has made 25.8 units/unit wagered since 2013.  It has averaged a quite impressive +173 Dog play.

Play on a road team using the money line.

After allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game.

Facing an opponent that out rushed their last opponent by 200 or more yards.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Auburn is a solid 13-4 against the money line (+12.3 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt

Auburn is 39-8 against the money line (+36.4 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Auburn is 95-9 against the money line (+103.2 Units) when they score 28 or more point.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Auburn with the 6 points in this tightly contested affair.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Michigan State (310) as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA action set to start at  3:30 PM ET.

Round Table Discussion Points

The Spartans come into this one easily beating Bowling Green 35-10 last week, while Western Michigan lost a hard fought game last week in the Coliseum to Southern Cal. Western Michigan  put up 31 points on USC rushing for 263 yards while giving 232 yards on the ground. Western Michigan QB Jon Wassink struggled in the passing game completing 50% of his passes for a mere 67 yards. Spartan QB Brian Lewerke went 22/33 for 250 yards and 3 Touchdowns. The Spartan defense held Bowling Green to 67 yards on the ground. This all brings us to the value in this pick as Western had a tough game last week and now go into East Lansing taking only a Touchdown. This line is based on records from last year as the wheels came off the bus for the Spartans after the Wisconsin Game while Western Michigan was having a special year going 13-1 and a major bowl game. This is now 2017 and the red faced Spartans will be hungry for this one and won't overlook the Broncos. Perfect set up here for Sparty.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 34-10 hitting 77% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.

In the first month of the season.

After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.

Facing an opponent in the first month of the season.

And the opponent closed out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

WMU is just 34-72 ATS (-45.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

WMU is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

MSU is a solid 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

MSU is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt.

MSU is  22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Spartans.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Louisville (323) as they take on North Carolina in NCAAF action set to start at  12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by more than 10 points. Play a 7* amount using the line.

UNC is off an embarrassing home loss to California in Week1 losing 35-30 as 13 point favorites. Team that have had this type of demoralizing week 1 loss are just 3-22 SU and 8-17 ATS in week 2 games installed as 6.5 point or more dogs. A bonus play based on this query is to take Idaho as they host UNLV.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 31-6 ATS hitting 84% winners and has made 24.4 units/unit wagered since 1992.

Play against a home team.

In the first month of the season or first four weeks.

After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.

And is now facing an opponent that was a bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Louisville 106-55 ATS (+45.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

Louisville is 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

UNC is a money burning 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 29 to 35 points.

UNC is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt.

UNC is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards.

UNC is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Louisville Cardinal.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Tennessee (213) as they take on Georgia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.

Play a 7* amount on the line currently at - 3 1/2 .

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 30-6 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 23.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. 60% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that Tennessee will win this game vt more than 10 points.

Play against any team in the first week of the season.

After closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers.

Team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%).

Playing a team that had a winning record.

The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research.

15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt.

36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt.

109-48 ATS (+56.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points.

42-12 ATS (+28.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they gain 7.5 or more total yards per play.

G-Tech is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons.

2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Volunteers.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Texas A&M (211) as they take on UCLA in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.

Play a 7* amount on the line.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 39-11 ATS hitting 78% winners and has made 26.9 units/unit wagered since 1992. 41% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that A&M will win this game SU.

Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

In the first month of the season.

After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.

Team that had a winning record last season.

The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research.

UCLA is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons.

A&M is a strong 42-20 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Aggies.

Favoring The UnderDawg.
From the machine learning results, we do like FSU (205) for a 7* play. We also recommend splitting the wager and create a combination wager using a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line.

Everyone loves a games where two goliaths of college football face-off. Alabama is statistically one of the best dynasties ever in NCAA History, if not the best. While Florida State is always assembles a solid squad year after year. In this match up, there is many variables. Alabama is returning only 11 starters and Florida State is relying on their strong defense to carry the team in this game and throughout the regular season.

Alabama and other major schools are accustomed to simply reloading and the return of starters is not that critical unless they are facing a team like FSU. Alabama does get positive marks returning most of the skill positions, in Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, and Calvin Ridley. Bama’s defense is predicted to be top 10, per usual. What might hurt them is team chemistry during the first month of the season.

Florida State features one of the best defenses in their school history and one that the offense can feed off of. The offensive success will rely mostly on the new O-line protecting Deondre Francois. This O-line can run block with the best and you will see them push the ‘Bama D-Line back on their heels on the majority of plays. This is the crucial situation that will allow FSU to open up the run game and then use play action pass to elite and very fast WR that will be in man coverages.

This is the first time that a No. 1 ranked team will play a No. 3 ranked team this early in the season. So, there is little history to learn from that have similar characteristics. Bama will have to learn how to work together rapidly, as they play a whole new half of a team. While going up against a team that will most likely win the ACC Conference. Clemson is realistically the only team in the Conference that will give FSU any sort of test.

For one of our top plays this weekend we go to South Bend Indiana and our taking the Fighting Irish laying 18 points to the Temple Owls. We loved the game at the opening line under 2 TD’s, but the betting public has pushed this up to 18 points. Although Notre Dame comes off a 4-8 season losing their top Quarterback and many experts predicting a close outcome along with Temple coming off a 10-4 season going 12-2 ATS, you may ask how could the Irish be our top play? Several factors come into play on this one but the first is the leadership and news coming out of South Bend. Basically no news last year's team started with suspensions and issues with the players and was void any real leadership, basically all things are quiet and the expectations down for the Irish. The next matter is the Irish are loaded with talent and some of that is up front in the trenches. Next we see a lot of similarities to the 2013 game where Matt Rhule the ex Temple coach started his career at Temple and the Irish jumped out early and easily covered a similar type of spread putting up over 500 yards of Offense. New Temple head coach Geoff Collins is facing a similar situation losing a lot of Seniors especially on the defense and losing QB PJ Walker. Now the talent that Matt Rhule left is better than what he inherited. We still feel this is not the ideal situation for a young QB. Although the Owls only gave up 283 yards and 18 points per game many of those players are gone. Brandon Wimbush takes over an Irish offense that put up 31 points per game and 418 yards of offense. Wimbush has plenty of offense weapons from Running Back Josh Adams and leading receiver Equanimous St. Brown along with a full stable of running backs and receivers. The Irish although not deep up front have a lot more playmakers on defense this year. The Irish have strong Special teams this year which will also aid in this one. For halftime betters look for a favorable first half line as Notre Dame usually starts with the football. Take the Irish and lay the points today as we like Notre Dame to take the fight to the Cherry and the White.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Oregon State (291) as they take on Colorado State in NCAAF action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.

The recommended strategy is to wager a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line to exploit the significant probability of an SU Oregon State win.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive .

The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research.

Oregon State is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Oregon State is 91-31 ATS (+56.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

Oregon State 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yard.

Oregon State is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

Colorado State 37-90 ATS (-62.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Colorado State 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they allow 6 or more rushing yards per attempt.

Oregon State is  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Oregon State Beavers.

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 Super Bowl action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. We also like the adjusted spread of Patriots -10 ½ that currently pays 220/100 and Patriots -14 ½ that pays +450/100. So, make these prop adjusted line wagers no more than 20% of your normal wager on our plays. So, a $500 wager becomes a $100 wager for the prop bets.

More prop bets:

1.     Will the team that scores first win the game? NO pays +130 Obviously, we are playing for Atlanta to get out fast.

2.     Total FG made Over 3 ½ -125

3.     Patriots win by 11 to 13 +1100

4.     Falcons lead at the Half and Patriots win + 350

5.     Who will have more I.Thomas (Celtics) or Patriots total points. Patriots – ½ -105

6.     Who will have more Celtics 1H points or L. Blount rushing yards. Blount -1 ½ -120

7.     MVP – Chris Hogan at 30:1

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-4 mark good for 90% winners and has made 30.2 units/unit wagered since 2006. Play on favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) quick starting team outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games. 

 The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Patriots are 41-16 ATS (+23.4 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards

Patriots are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season.

Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing below-average defensive teams allowing greater than 5.65 yards/play this season.

Patriots are 18-1 against the money line (+14.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.

And here is the one major situation that also supported Denver last year in Super Bowl 50. Teams coming off any playoff game that scored 40 or more points are just 11-18 SU and 4-25 ATS in the next game in all playoff and SB games played since 1996. Fine tuning this a bit, we find these high-powered offenses come crashing to earth with a 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS mark when scoring when scoring more than 40 points, ATS win, and zero TO since 2000.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.

The Falcons were gashed for 208 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 10 and then allowed more than 99 rushing yards in every game since. These yards were gained between the tackles and the Eagles exploited that weakness. In our opinion, it is very likely that the Patriots game plan will be to establish and dominate the line of scrimmage with a pounding rushing attack led by Blount and augmented by Lewis and others. This will then open up play action for Brady allowing him more than enough time to scan the field and identify the best opportunity and deliver accurately for big gains. This is where Chris Hogan may shine and has a shot at the MVP. He is a strong and big WR, who runs excellent routes on every down and creates space to receive the ball and then gain more yards after the catch. Of all the Patriots WR, he may be the one that creates the most space in his routes and is extremely smart after the catch.

The Patriots defense gets hardly any real credit from the TV talking heads. In our opinion, there is no doubt that the Patriots defense will create major read issues for Ryan.

Now, the expected game plan is that the mythical Belichick will design a scheme to take away Julio Jones. However, if you look at previous games this season, Antonio Brown and AJ Green had monster games, but their offenses still score less than 20 points.

The Patriots rank second in the NFL this season in corner shadowing. This means that they allocate a corner to cover the same WR for the majority of the game. In this scheme, we think the surprise move will be to put Rowe on Jones. Butler has the elite speed, but not the size to cover Jones consistently, but using Rowe and then occasionally Butler will create that unpredictability that eliminates any OC to anticipate matchups in any down situation.

The Patriots used the blitz on 25% percent of their opponents’ drop backs this season ranking 26th-highest rate in the league. But Belichick takes ‘not blitzing’ a step further by only rushing three defenders or fewer on 26% of their passing plays this season. That’s far and away an outlier in the NFL today with the Cowboys next closest, at 19%, and the majority of teams are under 10%. On first downs, New England used it 21% of the time and on every single down, except for fourth, they are more likely to rush three players than to blitz.

The biggest single advantage in dropping eight into coverage is that it allows for a double team without eliminate the underneath coverage man that is present in a four-man rush. This also allows for one corner (Rowe) to man-up against Jones and the other 7 defenders in zone scheme. Last, this scheme takes away WR and RB screens from Atlanta’s play calling. Patriots allowed all of 77 yards on screen plays this year. The next closest team was the Buccaneers, at 164, and the league average was 315.

50* graded play on the New England Patriots (314) as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in AFC Conference Championship action set to start at 6:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-8 mark good for 83% winners and has made 37.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (PITTSBURGH) that are good passing teams averaging 6.7 to 7.3 PY/Attempt and is now facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 PY/Attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This is a money line system and I see no road blocks preventing anyone from playing a straight money line wager on the Patriots. The SIM projections essentially show that if the Patriots win the game they will also cover the spread. So, you could consider a combination wager using a 14* amount on the line and a 7* amount using the money line for a total of 21* amount. The reason it is 4* less, is to account for the increase vig using the money line and to optimize the ROI for the combination wager.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh is just 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points

NE is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons.

NE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons.

NE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

NE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) racing good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.

Patriots’ defense ranks best in the NFL in scoring defense and best with a 0.25 points per play allowed ratio. They rank 9th in yards per play allowed, which reflects a bend and don’t break motif. This style of defense has served the Patriots quite well over the years. I do think they will bring more pressure on Roethlisberger early in this game to minimize the chances that Brown can execute vertical routes. Moreover, we believe that the Patriots defense will contain Bell and LB Hightower’s name is expected to be heard quite a bit from the announcers. We don’t need to get into the Patriots offensive scheme as they will have a great game plan in place that will attack all areas of the Steeler defense. We expect the Patriots to attack the perimeter early and often to loosen up the middle of the field. Once that occurs, Brady will look to his RB and WR in slants and crossing routes getting the ball to receivers in stride so that yards after the catch will be optimal.

EXTRA Wagers: Play ‘NO’ that there will be three straight scores by the same team. -180

Shortest TD scored ‘OVER’ 1 ½ yards -105

Logan Ryan will intercept a pass +475

Total FG made 3 ½ ‘OVER’ -140

Longest FG made ‘UNDER’ 45 ½ -100

Patriots defense scores first +1800 (just have to play that one)

25* graded play on Pittsburgh (305) as they take on Kansas City (306) in AFC Divisional Playoff action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than four points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-12 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (KANSAS CITY) revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points this season.

Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing more than 350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Pittsburgh is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. 

Roethlisberger is 20-11 ATS in all games played over the last five seasons with lines ranging between -2.5 to 4.5.

Fundamental Discussion Points

This is a rematch of the Week 4 blowout Steeler win at Pittsburgh in Week 4. The teams are significantly different than that Week 4 game and most dominant change has been the development of Le’Veon Bell, who now can take over a game. The KC defense will face a monumental challenge to contain all of the Steeler weapons. Their ability to stop the best running back in the game will be a lot more difficult without the services of future Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Johnson and starting interior defenders Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey, all of whom have been placed on IR since the first meeting. Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell has been outrageous of late, generating 78, 139, 60, 88 and 110 yards after contact in his last five games, forcing 24 missed tackles during that time. On offense, KC has their own big-gun version Kelce, who is certainly a playmaker and game changer. He has accumulated 652 yards after the catch, which is more than all but 12 TE have in total receiving yards in the NFL. The Steelers defense has done extremely well in underneath man coverage situations, which would have a LB on Kelce. Further, the transition in ‘over-under’ coverages has been disguised pre-snap and Alex Smith will have to make incredibly fast reads downfield to locate the safety and if that safety is providing deep help in Kelce vertical routes. That hand-off in coverage between LB and safety occurs at 20 yards downfield and it is that precise timing that Smith will have the best opportunity to deliver the ball to Kelce in space. However, if Smith has to rely on this type of minutia detail to move the chains, it will be a very long day at Arrowhead. Take the Steelers.

50* graded play on Dallas (308) as they take on Green Bay (307) in NFC Divisional Round Playoff action set to start at 4:40PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 44-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (DALLAS) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record and with the game taking place in the second half of the season. 

Here is a money line system that has gone 34-2 for 94.4% winners and has made 30.4 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on home favorites of -160 to -475 using the money line (DALLAS) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·      Dallas is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.

·      Dallas is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season.

·      Dallas is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dallas Cowboys.

If you play Fantasy Football, definitely add Elliott to your team. It is not secret that the Cowboys front office and recent coaching and GM interviews have made it a point to say this is Elliotts’ time and he will be the dominant force in their offensive schemes and game plans. Ok, so if the Packers look to stop and contain Elliott, then they are exposed to the likes of Dez Bryant, Cole Beasely, Williams, and other weapons. Dak Prescott is a duel threat too, and with a make shift secondary, we do not see the Packers being able to stop the Cowboys.

If Jordy Nelson was playing, then this matchup discussion would be a bit more evenly matched. However, what most observers do not know, is that the Cowboys have the number 1 ranked secondary in the NFL and this despite having a mediocre pass rush. So, the dominant edge goes to the expectations that a relatively-clean Aaron Rodgers cannot keep up with a Cowboys’ offense that is averaging the fifth-most yards per carry before contact facing a Green Bay defense surrendering the seventh-most yards per carry before contact. Take the Cowboys.

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons (302) as they take on the Seattle Seahawks (301) in the NFC Divisional Round of playoff action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Atlanta is 76-19 ATS (+55.1 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt

Atlanta is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt

Seattle is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt

Seattle is 17-58 ATS (-46.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt.

Here are the supporting systems for this Titan release on Atlanta.

Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) mistake-free team with less than 1.25 TO/game committed and is now facing a team averaging less than 1.25 TO/game forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. 
71-18 over the last 10 seasons for 80% winners and making 52.4 units/unit wagered averaging a -103 favorite.

Slicing this system to include only favorites produces a 62-9 record for 87% winners since 2005 good for 87% winners making 45.6 units/unit wagered averaging a -181 ML favorite wager.

SIX Point TEASER Opportunity: Atlanta and Louisville in CBB

Play on any team in a 6-point teaser (ATLANTA) that is a mistake-free team averaging less than 1.25 TO/G committed and is now facing a team averaging less than 1.25 TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Falcons.

The Falcons have the 6th best OL in the league supporting the 2nd best overall offense and best scoring offense at 33. . Moreover, they are playing at home with the week of rest. Matt Ryan is remarkably accurate and makes solid decisions under pressure. He is averaging a league-best 8.8 yards per pass attempt while the Seattle defense ranks 15th allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Further, the Seattle defense is missing Earl Thomas and his replacement Terrell is simply making too many coverage mistakes. The Falcons feature Julio, but you will see two TE sets, where both TE run vertical routes and then send Jones underneath to vast open areas in the middle of the field. Seattle may be able to take that underneath route away, but then Ryan will know he has either TE in man coverage without safety help. Sounds like a perfect situation for big scoring plays.

50* graded play on Clemson (151) as they take on Alabama (152) in the CFP National Championship set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1992.  Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Clemson is a solid 17-6 against the money line (+12.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards 

Clemson is 28-9 against the money line (+24.7 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play

Alabama is just 16-22 against the money line (-20.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points

Clemson is 12-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. 

Clemson is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. 

Clemson is 11-1 against the money line (+10.7 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

Clemson is 12-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Clemson is 16-10 against the money line (+22.3 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing =5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. 

Clemson is 15-1 against the money line (+14.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. 

Swinney is 17-3 against the money line (+14.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Clemson.

Swinney is 27-9 against the money line (+21.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play as the coach of Clemson.

Clemson installed as a road dog has won four straight games and is 27-11 L38 situations.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers.

Clemson shutout Ohio State in their last game, which was a monumental feat and one that the media has not emphasized nearly enough in this matchup. Alabama is ranked best defensive team in the nation, but Clemson has narrowed the gap. Clemson ranks 8th in scoring defense, 7th with a 0.257 opponent points per play ratio, 6th allowing 4.5 YPP, and 7th allowing just 5.9 YP pass. This last metric is the one that will win the game for Clemson tonight.

Alabama ranks 35th allowing 7.8 Yards per pass and have allowed a sack on 5.71% of pass plays. Clemson’s defense ranks 7th in the nation recording a sack on 9.36% of pas plays. It will be the elite speed and athleticism of the Clemson front seven that will pressure the Alabama OL and will get penetration and containment on that unit. This will contain Hurts and also reduce the amount of time he has to scan the field to make plays down field. Watson is bar none the most athletic and talented QB that the Alabama defense will face this season. You can be guaranteed that HC Swinney, with his track record outlined above, will have a tremendous game plan in place tonight. Last, I also think the dismissal of Kiffin, whether for good or bad reasons, has had an impact on the players. As a side show, it will be quite interesting to see how Sarkisian reacts to Saban’s verbal attacks on him after Bama goes a 3-and-out possession.

25* graded play on the NY Giants (107) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (108) in NFC Wild Card action set to start at 4:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-16 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Giants are a solid 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.

Giants are 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992.

Giants are 54-27 ATS (+24.3 Units) after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992. 

Giants are 5-1 against the money line (+6.1 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards this season.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.

Weather will be a factor with cross winds in the 8 to 12 MPH range throughout the game. Game time temps will start at 12 degrees and steadily move into single digits during the game. However, we strongly believe this will give the Giants an added edge since they are the better rushing team and have a vastly better rushing defense.

Giants have won all season with their defense and it will be no different today. Giants rank 3rd in scoring defense, 2nd posting a 0.267 opponent points per play ratio, and third with a 35% opponent third down conversion percentage. Green Bay led by Rogers is an elite offensive unit once again this season. Green Bay ranks 2nd with a 46% third down conversion percentage, BUT we believe that the Giants defense will keep that number under 33% today. Giants will be successful in keeping first down gains to low numbers and forcing Rogers to move the chain on third and long distances. Rogers is one of the best ever, however, this Giants defensive unit has steadily gotten better over the second half of the season and arguably are now the best defensive units left in the playoffs. Further, the Giants are a mistake free team ranking 2nd in the league averaging just 5.5 penalties per game.

Packers secondary is a mess right now due to injuries. They have safeties playing corner in dime packages and this is a HUGE advantage for Beckham and Shepard in man coverage. If Beckham gets double teams, then it will open up high percentage pass completions to other WER and the TE. Take the Giants.

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins (105) as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (106) in AFC Wild Card action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dolphins will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at getting a shocking upset win. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-7 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2005. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs’. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Miami is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games off in 2 straight division games since 1992. 

Pittsburgh is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. 

Tomlin is a miserable money losing Tomlin is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite as the coach of Pittsburgh.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins.

Steelers have struggled to stop the run this season. They rank 20th allowing 4.3 YPR while Miami ranks 8th gaining 4.5 YPA. Ajayi has been a major factor and was just named the team MVP. His success will open play action where Moore can target a vastly underrated receiver corp in man coverage.

25* graded play on Oakland (101) as they take on Houston (102) in AFC Wild Card action set to start at 4:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

We also have a 10* graded play on the ‘over’ for this matchup. So, in addition to the combination wager, consider playing a 10* amount on the ‘over’ and then a reverse action parlay using the money line and the ‘over’ for a 5* unit play.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 95-48 ATS for 66.4% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) off a road loss against opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. 

Here is a second system that has gone 34-13 ATS for 72.3% winners since 2005. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team sporting a 60 to 75 win percentage and now playing a team with a winning record. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Oakland is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Oakland is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Raiders.

History has been made before this game even starts. Connor Cook will be the first QB in NFL history to make his first career start in a playoff game and we think he will also be the first to win his first start in a playoff game.

We performed an 11-game example of rookie quarterbacks playing in playoff action and their record is just 4-7 SU, but the spread record is 8-3 ATS. The first time a rookie was uder center in a playoff game was back in 1976 when Pat Haden played for an injured James Harris in a 14-12 win over Dallas. The last game, was in 2015 when A.J McCarron played for starter Andy Dalton in a 18-16 loss to Pittsburgh. Since 2000, the performance levels have been far more impressive, although just a 5-game sample size. So, these data examples do provide support for Connor Cook to perform well this afternoon.

An added reason is that Houston is dealing with their own QB injuries and numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Given the very talented and elite quality of the Oakland WR led by Amari Cooper, we strongly believe that Cook will be able to make plays , move the chains, and score points.

.

50* graded play on Auburn (281) as they take on Oklahoma (282) action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-43 mark for only 43% winners, BUT has made a whopping 52.5 units/unit wagered since 1992. This impressive system has averaged a +299 DOG and underscores the value of applying this system to future qualifying games. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Here is a second system that has gone 55-25 for 69% winners since 1992 and has made 33 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OKLAHOMA) excellent rushing team gaining more than 4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system is a perfect 5-0 this season.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Auburn 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season.

Auburn 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play

Oklahoma is just 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992.

Oklahoma is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points

Auburn’s ground attack was stopped by Alabama’ defense in their last game, but they will not be stopped by the Sooner defensive edition. Auburn ranks 8th in the nation gaining 263 rushing yards per game and they run the ball 68% of all plays. Sooners rank 49th allowing 161 rushing yards per game and 69th allowing 4.6 YPR. The solid ground attack has opened up easy to complete pass plays in play action or using ball fakes in the read-option scheme. Auburn ranks 18th in the nation completing 63% of their passes and 30th throwing an INT on just 2% of their plays. We just do not see the Sooner defense holding up to this power attack. Take the Auburn Tigers.

25* graded play on Penn State (280) as they take on USC (279) in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·      USC is 1-6 against the money line (-7.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. 

·      Penn State is a solid 42-19 against the money line (+19.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards

·      Penn State is 14-1 against the money line (+13.2 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt

·      Penn State is 8-1 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season.

·      Penn State is 39-4 against the money line (+32.1 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points

·      USC is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. 

·      USC is 9-30 ATS (-24.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points

·      USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. 

·      Penn State is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.

From Week 3 on to the end of the season, Penn State was definitely a contender for the Playoff Semifinals, but was hardly given the respect they deserved for that consideration. They rank 22nd in scoring offense, 13th in yards/point, 18th in yards/play, 10th in yards per pass play attempt, and third in interception percentage at just 1.38% of all pass plays run.

USC is also a hot team down the stretch having won 8 straight games and if the last week of the regular season in the Pac-12 would have played out their way, then it would have been arguably USC playing Alabama instead of Washington. The difference in this game will be the PSU ground attack and then the ability of QB McSorely to look to the deep vertical routes in play action. If USC takes those deep routes away, the TE #88 will have a huge day for the Lions. McSorely is very smart and rarely ever forces any throw. Take the Lions.

50* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (SAN DIEGO) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’, in a game involving two good offensive teams scoring between 23 and 27 PPG.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

KC is just 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

KC is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Chargers.

Even without Melvin Gordon in the lineup, we see San Diego ending the season with a great effort for the home crowd. Rivers is a veteran player, who never gives up and that will be demonstrated in this matchup. We expect him to exceed the SIM projections of 325 passing yards and obviously the higher that total goes, the greater the chances of the upset win too.

25* graded play on Ohio State (273) as they take on Clemson (274) in College Playoff action set to start at  7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio State will win this game by at least 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Ohio State is 104-3 against the money line (+112.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Clemson is just 24-56 against the money line (-59.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.

Ohio State is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Clemson is just 27-60 ATS (-39.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points 

Fundamental Discussion Points

Ohio State will score at least 28 points in this game and as the history lessons shown above indicate this is very good news for the Buckeyes. Ohio State has the second-best defense in the nation that ranks 3rd in scoring defense, third in opponent yards-per-game, 2nd with a 0.208 opponent-points-per-play ratio, and third allowing 4.2 yards-per-play. Clemson ranks 24th with a 0.477 points per play ratio and just 64th averaging 4.4 yards per rush. Ohio State can run the ball against the Clemson defense, and in so doing can control the pace of the game to detriment of Clemson’s wishes. Take Ohio State.

25* graded play on Washington as they take on Alabama in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in the College Football playoff set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a modest shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Washington is a solid 6-2 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons.

Washington is 7-1 against the money line (+12.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons.

Washington is 6-1 against the money line (+11.8 Units) in road games facing good offensive teams averaging greater than 5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Washington Huskies.

No one is giving Washington even a glimmer of hope to defeat Alabama. Only 35% of all bets made, which exceeds 40,000 tickets, that we monitor at 7 different sportsbooks have been on Washington. This line opened at 14 ½ and based on the money flows, the line could be much higher. The fact that it isn’t is a key metric reflecting the larger so-called ‘Smart Money’ is on Washington.

Let’s not forget too, that Washington is an elite team. Period. They rank best in the nation posting a 0.645 points per play ratio, third in scoring offense, and 17th in yards-per-rush. No doubt that Alabama defense is the best in the nation, BUT that does not imply that Washington can’t move the ball successfully against them.

Washington defense ranks 10th in scoring defense, 8th in points per play allowed, and 5th allowing 4.5 opponent yards per play. We strongly believe that this game will be much tighter than any talking media head will lead you to believe and it just might be Washington winning the game.

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Louisville in the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl set to start at 11:00 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by more than 10 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are quality teams outscoring opponents by seven or more points/game and after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

LSU is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

LSU is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play

Louisville is just 33-74 ATS (-48.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points

Louisville is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers

Fundamental Discussion Points

Louisville ranks best in scoring offense, but let’s face it, they have not played the most difficult schedule, especially when compared to LSU. Ohio State was ranked hardest in SOS and Louisville a rather distant 19th. The margin between them is significant and we believe it will quite evident in this matchup. The most glaring advantage for LSU is their defense that ranks 5th in scoring defense, 5th in points per play allowed, and 14th allowing opponents to convert just 33% of their third down conversions.

Lamar Jackson is the Heissman Trophy winner, but he was contained and confused by a Houston defense that ranks 39th in scoring defense allowed in the nation and 45th in opponent points per play. Take LSU.

25* graded play on Air Force as they take on South Alabama in the NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AF will win this game by at least 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on any team with an excellent rushing attack gaining more than 4.8 YPR and is now facing a terrible rushing defense allowing more than 4.8 YPR and after 7 or more games, and after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

South Alabama is an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

·      AF is a solid 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards.

·      AF is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.

·      South Alabama is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams averaging more than 425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

25* graded play on TCU (257) as they take on Georgia (258) in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against all teams in a non-conference matchup where the line is +3 to -3 that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 and 28 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring between 28 and 34 PPG after 7 or more games.in non-conference games 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·      TCU is a strong 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

·       Georgia is just 21-64 ATS (-49.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

·      TCU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) facing excellent punt coverage teams that are allowing less than 7.5 yards per return over the last three seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points

Both teams fell far short of expectations for this season. TCU is tied with Oklahoma in the Big-12 with a 29-9 overall record over the past three seasons, but won just 6 games this season. However, there are only 13 Seniors on this team, so this is the first audition, if you will, for the underclassman to make a statement to the coaching staff in this Bowl game. The spotlight will certainly be on Texas A&M transfer and Junior QB Kenny Hill. He massed 3,062 passing yards with 15 TDs, but three 13 INTs. He was without his NO. 1 receiver KaVontae Turpin, but that can longer be a reason for Hill not to take another big step forward in leading the offense into next season. So, we expect a huge game from him today that will spill over to the rest pf the team. Take TCU.

25* graded play on Oklahoma State (255) as they take on (256) Colorado in in the Valero Alamo Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-41 record for only 51% winners, But has made a whopping 45.3 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on neutral field underdogs using the money line that are off a road loss against a conference rival and with the current game taking place after November 30. The average play for this system has been a +200 dog, making it one of the most powerful money making systems.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·       Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

·       Colorado is 44-97 ATS (-62.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.

·       Colorado is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play.

·       OSU is a near-perfect 13-1 against the money line (+15.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cowboys tonight.

25* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Texas A&M in the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The one caveat is that we need to have a money line of at least 135. If it is not at that level or higher, then simply wager a 25* amount using the available line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-7 mark using the money line good for 84% winners and has made 29.6 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (KANSAS ST) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being outgained by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 7-2 this season an 22-5 over the past three seasons.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·      K-State is a solid 35-14 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards

·      K-State is 33-9 ATS (+23.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt 

·      A&M is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards

·      A&M is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt 

·      A&M is 6-25 ATS (-21.5 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers

·      A&M is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards

·      A&M is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board K-State.

These teams are somewhat similar with a strong ground game that has overwhelmed many DLs this season. In this matchup, we believe it will be the K-State groud attack that proves to be the difference maker. K-State ranks 14th in the nation averaging 46.1 rushing plays per game and 12th running the ball on 62% of their plays. K-State had a season low of 110 rushing yards in their 38-17 loss at Oklahoma, but since have gained at least 237 rushing yards and averaged 290 rushing yards over those last 6 games. The A&M defense has been exposed to the ground game havig allowed 298 rushing yards in their last game against LSU and 365 rushing yards on 58 plays at Mississippi State, November 5. We strongly believe K-State OL and pounding run game that will also attack the perimeter will gradually wear down the A&M defense. Take K-State.

25* graded play on Temple as they take on Wake Forest in Military Bowl action set to start at  3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 17 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·       Wake Forest is just 34-91 ATS (-66.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points

·       Wake Forest is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play

·       Temple is a solid 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points

·       Temple is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt

·       Temple is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 2 seasons.

·       Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season.

·       Temple is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play

Fundamental Discussion Points

Temple has had a fantastic season given that they had low expectations after losing 19 seniors from last year’s team. However, they have won 12 straight games ATS after losing ATS in Week 1 to Army and that by just one point. They have also won seven straight games and destroyed a then-ranked No. 20 Navy team in the Conference Championship 34-10 as 1.5 point dogs. Back in Week 3 they played Penn State and that game was special for both teams. PSU did not lose a game the rest of the way and Temple also began their 9-1 win streak. Temple also covered against Penn State losing 34-27. WF lost 5 of the last 6 games and the last three games. This team has a new interim coach as well, BUT a win this bowl game would make them the winniest team in Temple history. There is a great article in the Philadelphia Inquirer if you are interested to see how this team was built and how much they grew over the last four seasons. It is a great read. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/temple/20161227_Jensen__Temple_is_beating_the_odds_from_start_to_finish.html

Take Temple.

R

25* graded play on Boston College as they take on Maryland in the Quick Lane Bowl set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BC will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, we have one mandate and that is the money line portion of the combination wager must be at a minimum of +135. If is not there, then simply wager the 25* amount on the line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-44 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 2010.  Play against any team (MARYLAND) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 2 out of their last 3 games. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Maryland is a money burning 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt

Maryland is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. 

Bowl favorites under the leadership of first year coaches are 5-16-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a ATS and SU win.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Boston College.

Maryland started off 4-0 and then won just more games against an injury riddled Michigan State team and lowly Rutgers. Boston College has a strong defense that is battled tested in the ACC. The Eagles rank 11th in the nation allowing 328 yards per game, 13th allowing opponents 33% third conversion success, and 11th allowing just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Maryland relies on the run and we feel strongly BC will dominate the LOS, get penetration, and stop the Maryland ground attack. Without play action and the weapons to attack the BC perimeter defense, it may prove to be a very long afternoon for Maryland. Take BC.

25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Baltimore in AFC North Division action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 11 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-22 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on favorites (PITTSBURGH) good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG and is now facing an average team (+/- 40 YPG differential after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

Pittsburgh is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points this season.

Pittsburgh is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Normally, our analysis centers on the most common personnel alignment (single back, 3 WR, slot receiver and/or TE), but in this matchup keep your eyes peeled to Baltimore’s fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Baltimore’s use of the FB is unique in this modern-era of spread offenses and it certainly works for them. Without the lead FB blocker, Baltimore averages 3.9 YPR, which ranks 24th in the league in all formations, but with the FB 5.0 YPR. However, Pittsburgh is a divisional rival, who already knows Baltimore’s tendencies better than anyone in the league. Pittsburgh defense ranks third allowing 89.2 rushing yards per game. We strongly believe that Pittsburgh will force Baltimore into third-and-long situations, which all but eliminates the power FB scheme. Take the Steelers.

25* graded play on Hawaii (228) as they take on Middle Tennessee State (227) in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and have a great opportunity to win the game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-21 mark using the money line for 58% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged an +200 DOG, which makes it a very powerful tool to use for qualifying games in the future.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·       Hawaii is a solid 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers

·       Hawaii is 97-42 ATS (+50.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points

·       Stockstill is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of MTST.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Hawaii. Strength of schedule is meaningful for this matchup with Hawaii playing a far more difficult schedule. MDST defense has not been all that good this season and has been largely inconsistent down the stretch. They rank 108th in scoring defense and 107th posting a 0.506 opponent points per play ratio. Hawaii defense ranks 48th posting a 5.4 opponent yards per play and 64th allowing opponents to convert 40% of third down situations. Conversely, MTST ranks a horrid 126th allowing opponents a 51% third down conversion percentage. Take Hawaii.

25* graded play on Minnesota (11) as they take on Green Bay (12) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) after a game where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers.

Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 9 points or less last game.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Minnesota is a solid 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt

·       Minnesota is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

·       Minnesota is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

·       Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points

Green Bay defense is just not good and reflects all of the injuries the unit has had to endure this season. Minnesota’s defense remains one of the best in the NFL and they will certainly have the skills to contain Rogers. Vikings rank 2nd in the NFL allowing just 5.9 yards per pass play, third allowing 205.6 yards per game, and fourth overall allowing 5.0 yards per offensive play. Moreover, they are excellent at bringing pressure ranking 7th in sack percentage. Take Minnesota.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-5 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (ATLANTA) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Atlanta is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt

·       Atlanta is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt

·       Atlanta is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play

·       Carolina is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Falcons.

25* graded play on the NY Giants (101) as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in a major NFC East matchup set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NY will win this game by more than 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-3 mark good for 91% winners using the Money Line since 2010. Play on favorites using the money line in the second half of the season (NY GIANTS) hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games. 

Here is a second amazing system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

·       NY Giants are a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt

·       NY Giants are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt

·       Philadelphia is a near-imperfect 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the NY Giants.

Two teams heading in opposite direction face off tonight on Thursday Night Football. Of note, is the fact that this is the first Thursday Night Game between these two teams in their 84-year history. Giants have won eight of the past nine games and in large part due to a very staunch defense. The Giants ‘D’ ranks third in scoring defense, second in opponent points per play, and third allowing opponents to convert just 35% of third down situations. Eagles offense is really struggling, but head coach Pederson has his team playing all 60 minutes and there is yet to be any ‘give-up’ yet. Doubtful, they will give up in this heated Division rivalry either. However, the Giants defense presents so many very difficult matchups to the Eagles offense, that lacks any significant receiver threat. Over the last 3 games, the Giants defense ranks best in the NFL forcing opponents to gain 26.3 yards to score just 1 equivalent point on the scoreboard. Take the Giants.

50* graded play on Washington as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by 11 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Carolina is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. 

Carolina is 15-42 ATS (-31.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points 

Carolina is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt 

Carolina is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. 

Washington is a solid 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt 

Washington is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.

Washington is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Washington is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Washington.

It will be the Washington passing game led by Cousins that will be the major difference maker in this game. Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL averaging 303 passing yards per game and 3rd allowing a sack on only 3.50% of passing plays. The OL has done a magnificent job protecting Cousins and giving him extra time and confidence to find the open receiver. Carolina defense is poor ranking 30th allowing 272 passing yards per game. We strongly believe Cousins will shred the Carolina zone and post above average numbers across all major metrics. Take the Washington Redskins.

25* graded play on the Chicago Bears (312) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (311) in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (GREEN BAY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

Bears are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last two seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points
Weather conditions will have an impact on this game. It is very rare that we ever state that weather will impact the result or will favor one team and not the other, but in this case, it does favor the Bears. Green Bay’s ground game is average with their OL having below average run blocking grades. Chicago’s defensive front is one of the best in the game that the media never highlights. That defensive front will completely stop the ground game forcing Rogers to make throws in what will be horrific conditions with wind chills between -10 and -20 degrees. Even for the best spiral throwers in the game, the swirling and strong winds will make any throw over 15 yards difficult. Punts will be a big factor too and I would not be surprised to see returners let the ball drop to the ground instead of attempting a high-risk catch. Bears ground game will be successful against the Packers DL. Bears rank 8th averaging 4.4 yards-per-rush. Also, have you noticed that Bears have covered 5 of the last six games? Plus, Rogers I 0-3 in his career when the game temperatures are in the single digits. He HATES this weather and is nursing a right calf injury, which is the leg an RH QB needs strength and leverage to throw the ball. Take the Bears and expect the win.

25* graded play on Jacksonville (319) as they take on Houston (320) in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. 41% of the plays made based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by more than 7 points. This underscores the upset potential identified by the SIM Algorithm

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       JAX is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

·       JAX is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jaguars.

Houston is arguably the worst offensive team to ever be in first place in a Division. They have been outscored by 45 points this season. Of course, JAX is a struggling team having lost eight straight games, but they do have the tools and talent to compete and win this game. JAX passing defense has done very well ranking 5th in opponent passing yards per attempt, 4th allowing 203 passing yards per game and 14th in sacks. Houston is a horrible 29th averaging just 5.8 yards per pass, rank 28th throwing an interception on 2.88% of all plays run, and 28th in completion percentage. JAX surprises everyone, but not you and not us. Take Jacksonville.

25* graded play on Tennessee (317) as they take on Kansas City (318) in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 SU mark using the money line for 79% winners over the past five seasons. Play against any team using the money line (KANSAS CITY) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

Titans are 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards

Titans are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards

KC is a money burning 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards 

KC is also a horrid 25-80 ATS (-63.0 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards

Fundamental Discussion Points

As the SIM projects and the technical points under score, it will be the Titans ground attack that will be the principle reason they win this road game and take control of the AFC South Division. Tennessee ranks 3rd averaging 4.7 yards per rush, 3rd averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game, and 2nd with 48% of all plays executed on the ground. KC can’t stop the run and rank 25th allowing 4.3 yards per rush, 27th allowing 123 rushing yards per game. Marriota has played extremely well over the last nine games and has done even better taking care of the ball and not forcing throws that can lead to interceptions. Tennessee has gone four straight games without a turnover while creating eight turnovers by their defense. Take Tennessee.

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins (303) as they take on the NY Jets (304) in NFL Saturday action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that MIAMI will win this game by at least 8 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Jets are a miserable 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. 

20-43 ATS (-27.3 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins.

Now, I am fully aware that the Dolphins have been a terrible cold weather team, especially in December games; that they now are relying on Matt Moore due to the injury to Tannenhill; that somehow the Jets defeated the 49ers last week; and that Miami has outplayed only 2 of the last 6 opponents in the box score data. But, this is the Jets 2016 edition and having Bryce Petty under center is hardly an asset at this point in his very young career. It is one thing to be prepared to be under center in the NFL and have a strong OL in front of you. It’s vastly different when the QB is not quite ready and the OL and other units are playing largely inconsistent football more evident of an expansion team. Miami is playing to get into the playoffs and the team is centered on taking it one play at a time and not getting caught up in the emotion of any game or situation. The Dolphins also have two excellent WR in Landry and Parker going up against a Jets defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowed pass completion percentage and 30th in interceptions. Moore is the most undervalued QB in Draftkings for those folks who are engaged in that competition. Take the Dolphins.

25* graded play on Arkansas State (207) as they take on UCF (208) in the Autonation Cure Bowl set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARST will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-17 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

ARST is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) off a road win against a conference rival 

ARST is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points

Arkansas State has had an excellent defense this season ranking 18th in scoring defense and 23rd in opponent pass completion percentage. Granted, their schedule was significantly easier than the one faced by UCF this season. However, ARST matches up very well against UCF and we see the winning this game outright. Of course, the SIM grading is what first identifies an opportunity, but then we dive deep into our databases and then apply fundamental matchup analyses to complete the vetting process of any game released. All systems are ‘GO’ on Arkansas State.

25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on UT-San Antonio in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl  set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will New Mexico win this game by more than 11 points. Lobos are projected to dominate the LOS and gain more than 350 rushing yards with total output over 500 yards.

Technical Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       UTSA is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

·       Lobos are a solid 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards

·       Lobos are 73-32 ATS (+37.8 Units) when they score 28 or more point

·       Lobos are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points

·       Lobos are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons.

·       Lobos are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards

·       Lobos are also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points

The Roadrunners are playing their first bowl game in school history after going 6-6 an 5-3 in C-USA action. The Lobos are bowl eligible for the second straight season and gained a share of the Mountain West Mountain Division title. The Roadrunners feature a balanced attack with not only two rushers over 700 yards, but two receivers, Josh Stewart and Kerry Williams Jr., who have combined for 1,200 yards.

On defense, the Roadrunners hold their opponents to 152 yards, but we do not believe they can control the line and stop the Lobos on the ground. Lobos are ranked second in the nation gaining 6.6 yards per rush and third averaging 53.4 rushing plays per game. They rank best in the nation gaining 355 rushing yards per game. SOS is actually fairly equal for the season quotient, however, UTSA has not faced a dominant physical OL with power between the tackles and speed to attack the perimeter on any play.

25* graded play on the Rams (301) as they take on Seattle (302) in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at  8:25 PM ET. PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than 13 points and has only a modest opportunity to post a remarkable upset win. Given the favorable projections, I like normally make these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, in this case, we are suggesting adding a 3* play to the 25* line wager.

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Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-22 ATS mark good for 71.4% winners since 2005. Play on a road teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games. Here is a second system that has gone 23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (LA RAMS) that are struggling offensive teams scoring 17 or less points/game, and after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Here is a third system working against Seattle and has gone 32-10 ATS for 76% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (SEATTLE) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Seattle is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams tonight.

The Rams defense is the key to this cover. They are playing well despite being backed by the worst NFL offense. That unit ranks 5th allowing just 35% third-down conversions and rank 8th allowing 7.2 yards-per-pass. Wilson had a horrific last game and the team, in our opinion, is not nearly as good as the media talking heads would lead you to believe. Hence, that is why the line is inflated to these lofty levels and then lifted even higher by an irrational public sentiment. Take the Rams.

50* graded play on New England (134) as they take on Baltimore (133) in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 11 points. I also have money flow data to believe this line, now at NE -7 points can drift lower to 6 points by game time. There has been a surge in public betting support on Baltimore and it has been enough to move the line lower. I would recommend waiting till later this afternoon or even after 6:00 PM ET to place the wager for the game. Although the projections show that the extra point benefit in the line will not be necessary, it NEVER hurts shopping and working for the best possible line available.

­Technical Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Patriots are a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

·       Patriots are 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when they allow 75 to 100 rushing

·       Patriots are 60-35 ATS (+21.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points

·       Patriots are 42-18 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play

·      TOM BRADY is a perfect 6-0 ATS in his career at home when facing the current No.1 ranked defense.

Fundamental Discussion Points
The 6-0 ATS record when facing the best defense in home tilts in Foxborough essentially sums up this section of analysis as well. We can discuss the x’s and o’s, but truly no one prepares a team better for a game than the Patriots coaching staff. They find a way to identify an opponent’s strength and minimize that strength in the game. They then force an opponent to beat them using their weaknesses, which many times matches up against the Patriots’ strengths.

Baltimore ranks first in scoring defense, yards per game allowed, third-down conversions allowed, and yards per rush allowed. The Patriots are tied with Baltimore in scoring defense, 9th in total yards allowed, 11th in rushing yards per attempt, 8th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in passing yards per game allowed. So, with Baltimore’s inconsistent offense, it may be the Patriots defense that creates turnovers and gets stops on third downs and gives the offense short field scoring opportunities. Take the Patriots.

25* graded play on New Orleans as they take on Tampa Bay in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New Orleans will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-41 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play ON underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) in a game involving two average teams posting a +/- 3 PPG differential after 8 or more games, and after scoring 14 points or less scored in their last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       TB is just 27-54 ATS (-32.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points

·       TB a miserable 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 300 to 350 net passing yards.

·       TB is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games when their defense allows 300 or more net passing yards.

·       13-38 ATS (-28.8 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Saints.

Saints are second in offensive scoring and will be matched against a rather suspect TB defense that ranks 19th in scoring defense. Granted, the Saints defense does rank 30th in scoring defense, but that stat is a bit manipulated due to the scoring barrage of their offense. The Saints offense is just too powerful with Brees for the Bucs to contain enough to allow Winston and his unit to keep pace. Brees ranks first in the NFL converting 50% of their third-down situations this season. Take the Saints.

25* graded play on Miami (116) as they take on Arizona (115) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) off 2 or more consecutive ‘overs’ and is a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is now facing a matchup against a poor defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. 

Miami is a solid 41-14 ATS (+25.6 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992.

Arizona is a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins.

If you read even a little bit of the media coverages for this game, you already know that Miami has not covered a December game in the last 3 seasons. That’s all about to change this afternoon.  We fully expect Ryan Tannenhill to have a monster game throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, who will have favorable matchups against the Arizona secondary. The reason is the emergence of the Dolphins ground attack, which has opened up far more play action opportunities to exploit vertical routes. Take Miami.

25* graded play on Indianapolis as they take on Houston in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Colts will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Of the 62 qualifying plays made by the criteria detailed in the system, 29 of them or 47% covered the spread by at least 7 points.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Houston is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. 

·       Houston is a money losing 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards

·       Indianapolis is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points
This game marks Houston’s fourth road game in the last five weeks and travel fatigue will be an issue. Actually, that fatigue has become quite evident in the Houston secondary in recent weeks and Luck will undoubtedly exploit any assignment mistake that secondary makes in this game. It is fact, that statistically, the Colts defense essentially can’t stop much of anything this season. They are though in a favorable spot against an offensive challenged Texans offensive unit ranking 28th in scoring offense and dead last with a miserable 5.4 yards-per-pass play ratio. Take the Colts.

25* graded play on ARMY as they take on Navy in NCAA football action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARMY) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Army is a solid 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 47-23 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by =230 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Kansas City in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Make certain you get a minimum Money Line of +135. If it is below +35, then simply make this a 25* play using the line only.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play against any team (KANSAS CITY) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs.' The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. KC is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games facing defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last two seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Raiders.

KC has been out gained for the season, and Alex Smith has had seven straight games throwing less than 300 passing yards. Oakland’s defense leads the NFL with 25 takeaways and a +14 turnover margin that has propelled to a tie with New England for the best record in the conference. The key matchup tonight involves KC’s abilities to convert on 3rd down situations. Oakland’s defense ranks 8th best in the NFL allowing opponents to convert 3rd down situations 37.6% of the time. KC ranks a dismal 28th converting 34.6% of their third down conversions. Oakland’s defense will be a principal reason they win this critical AFC West showdown.

25* graded play on the NY Jets (378)  as they take on the Indianapolis Colts (377) in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game. If this line, currently showing the Jets installed as 1.5 point dog, moves to 3 and you can get a money line of at least +130, then a combination wager is validated using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Jets are a stout 63-25 ATS (+35.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Moreover, they are an impressive 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games off a home loss dating back to 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jets.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Oakland in AFC Conference action set to start at  4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) in a conference matchup, who are off a no-cover where the team had won installed as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a miserable 5-26 ATS (-23.6 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 18-78 ATS (-67.8 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears.

Buffalo is a strong team that has not had things go their way in every game. They are 6-5 and right in the middle of the playoff hunt in the AFC. Oakland has won 5 straight games to move to first place in the West. Yards-per-point is a metric and not a fundamental variable, but it does lead into t the fundamental discussions. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL with 13.3 yards per point offensive ratio. This means that on average for Buffalo to score 1 point on the scoreboard, they need to gain 13.3 yards of offense. This metric ranges from about 12 to 24 in any given season. The lower the metric, the more efficient an offense operates on the field. Oakland ranks 5th in this category at 14.8 and has posted a very impressive 11.8 reading over their last three games. However, the last three weeks has put Oakland into an unsustainable situation, and there is a significant propensity for their offense to revert to or below their mean. So, look for Buffalo to establish the ground game and control the tempo of the game.

25* graded play on Penn State(333) as they take on Wisconsin(334) in BIG 10 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 98-52 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.3% winners and made a great 40.8 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games this season; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season; 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall; 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game; 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a poor 

Fundamental Discussion Points

25* graded play on Idaho (322) as they take on Georgia State (321) in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Idaho will win this game by more than a touchdown.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 over the last 5 seasons good for 84.4% winners and made 21.5 units/unit wagered. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (IDAHO) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Idaho is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season; 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. 

Fundamental Discussion Points

50* graded play on Oklahoma(318) as they take on Oklahoma State(317) in Bedlam Rivalry action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 12 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 over the last 10 seasons good for 88.5% winners and made 24.2 units/unit wagered. Play against road underdogs (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OU is a strong 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with Stoops as their coach; 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games. OK State is a poor 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Fundamental Discussion Points

In the game they call Bedlam we look for the Sooners and the Cowboys to put up lot of offense today. Oklahoma rushes for 230 yards a game and passes for over 320. Baker Mayfield completes over 70% of his passes with 35 TD Passes on the season. Joe Mixon and Samantha Perrine are a solid 1-2 running punch averaging over 7 yards per carry with 17 TD's on the year. Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys offense have been equally impressive this season averaging over 40 points per game. We do look for the Sooners to do what they are accustomed to do and control the Big 12 teams especially at home where the OU defense should be able to get more stops in this one. When I say Boomer, you say Sooner today!

25* graded play on Troy(313) as they take on Georgia Southern(314) in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will win this game by more than 8 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-10 over the last 5 seasons good for 80.8% winners and made a great 31 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (GA SOUTHERN) - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 38-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 77.6% winners and made 25.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GASO is an awful 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season; 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games; 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Troy is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games; 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points

25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Tennessee in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 130-40 since 1983 (16-3 L5 seasons) good for 76.5% winners and made a HUGE 59.5 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a poor 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game; 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Fox is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Chicago is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago plays better at home where they've earned both of the wins this season and allow 17.5 PPG against. Tennessee is a losing team on the road. This play screams contrarian. Chicago LB Danny Trevathan has recorded 11 or more tackles in two straight games. 

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 16 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is an amazing 112-37 ATS (+71.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. MSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse over the last two seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Lions.

25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Alabama in the IRON BOWL in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 13 points and actually has a shot to win this game. If you have access to a money line for this game, I would highly recommend adding a 3* play using that line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play against a home team (ALABAMA) after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders.' Auburn is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points In the battle of the Iron Bowl we are taking the Auburn Tigers with the points at Alabama based first on the SIM Algorithm grading. There is also a volume of fundamental matchups we see as a neutralizing force against one of the ‘Bama teams in their school history. Auburn comes into the game with an 8-3 record and Alabama has yet to lose. The Tide has delivered in all the big games this year, and when the game was relatively close, they exerted their will and pulled away in the fourth quarter. Alabama QB position has been average through the air in these closer games but delivered running the football. The Auburn QB has been efficient all year with 11 TD's and only two picks completing close to 70% of his passes. The Tiger defense has also been stingy this year and has already faced an athletic QB in Deshaun Watson earlier this year. Auburn's defense, however, allowed only 15 touchdowns in 11 games, limited opponents to about 118 rushing yards per game, and allowed an average of 334.5 yards in total offense, which is 18th-best in the country and fifth in the SEC. The Tigers (8-3, 5-2) can also to put pressure on opposing passers (25 sacks, 82 quarterback hurries) and when they can't get to the quarterback, they have a knack for batting the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Defensive linemen Montravius Adams, Marlon Davidson, Dontavius Russell, Maurice Swain and Derrick Brown, have combined for ten pass breakups. Only two teams have scored in the mid 20 point range against the Tigers this year, and we are getting 17 plus points today. Also in this rivalry game, both teams and players know each other well, so there will be a few wrinkles in the offensive schemes. This is where Auburn, with an incredibly accurate QB, will be the offsetting difference. We believe strongly that his accuracy will eventually spread the Auburn defense and open up running lanes between the tackles. QB Sean White was not under center and got valuable rest after reinjuring his shoulder in the Georgia game. Johnson was under center last week against Alabama A&M and OC Rhett Lashlee said either could start and was intentionally very vague answering press questions yesterday. Gamesmanship? Of course, it is, but it does force ‘Bama staff to prepare for both QB  in varying down and distance situations. No Auburn players will be in awe of Alabama, and they have nothing to lose playing in Tuscaloosa.. Take Auburn and the points today. Go War Eagle!

25* graded play on USC as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by at least 21 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-17 ATS mark good for 73.4% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points. The SU record of this system is an incredible 61-4 and 48% of ALL plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. So, 45 of the 67 ATS wins covered the spread by more than 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points The red hot Trojans take on the Irish in the annual clash. Norte Dame has had some long days in the Colesium throughout its history and we look for another one today. USC QB Sam Darnold has been real good lately completing over 68% of his passes with 24 Touchdowns, and the Norte Dame secondary will struggle again against an athletic bunch of receivers. The Irish start strong and once adjustments are made the coaching staff does not have an answer. Look for Ju Ju Smith and the Trojan receivers to be running freely all day and the Norte Dame offense will struggle to keep pace today. USC will not want to let up in this one and will keep the pedal on the gas. Look for the Trojans to win this easily today. Fight On!

50* graded play on Old Dominion as they take on Florida International in action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ODU will win this game by at least 17 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 98-53 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1992. Play against a road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FIU is just 21-58 ATS (-42.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; ODU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Old Dominion.

The Monarchs have been perfect in the win column and against the spread at home this year, and we look for more of the same today. ODU has a good offensive line and a strong running game with both Running Backs Larry and Cox averaging 6 yards per carry and 20 rushing TD's on the season. We look for the more of the same today as FIU gives up to close to 200 yards per game. The Monarchs control the line of scrimmage and game in this one.

25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan in BIG TEN action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game by more than 10 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a nice and tidy 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play; 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams averaging >=230 rushing yards/game; 51-21 ATS (+27.9 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Big game this week as this is an elimination game for the college playoff contenders. Two real good teams with great coaching in this one today. Losing Wilton Speight a couple of weeks ago will really hurt the Wolverine offense this week and the Horeshoe is not the place to go with backup O' Korn as the Quarterback. There was a reason he was a backup before transferring to Michigan and then a backup coming to Ann Arbor.The Buckeyes have experience at the QB position with JT Barrett and also have a strong running game and match up with Michigan in the trenches. Barrett completes over 63% of his passes including 24 TD's and can also hurt the defense equally in the running game. Should be a classic battle today, but the inexperience at QB will eventually hurt Michigan and Brutus will finally control this one as the game moves on. Take the Buckeyes as they look to claim one of the top four spots in the College playoffs today.

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-17 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) and is a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a stout 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Razorbacks.

We look for the physical and balanced Arkansas offense to put up some points today as the Tiger Defense has not recovered from the Florida and LSU back to back games earlier this year and have allowed for teams to control the ball and run at will as of late. The Tiger offense has been strong but can't keep up plugging the leaks by the Defense. Arkansas is looking to finish strong heading to a bowl game and we feel the Tigers want to get their disappointing season completed. Arkansas QB Allen has played well this year and the boys in the trenches favor the Hogs today. We look for a little Pig Sooey today as we will take Arkansas and lay the 8 points.

25* graded play on Dallas as they take on Washington in NFC East Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than 8 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 335-236 since 1983 that made a HUGE 75.4 units/unit wagered and is 5-2 this season. Play against road teams (WASHINGTON) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season; 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Garrett is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games as the coach of Dallas. Redskins are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Cowboys are the class of the NFC at this point. They are a balanced and well-performing, consistent team. I don't think the Redskins can say the same. "Road teams have a disadvantage on Thursday night" is a popular topic for articles for a reason. Even better Washington played Sunday night and are playing late afternoon on the road on Thanksgiving Day. Take them Boys and lay the points.

25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Philly in NFC action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by more than 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992; 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Carroll is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games as the coach of Seattle. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Russell Wilson connected with Doug Baldwin for three touchdown passes versus the Patriots while the former also accounted for three scores (two passing, one rushing) in the last meeting with the Eagles - a 24-14 Seahawks win on Dec. 7, 2014.  Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games. The Eagle's wideouts will continue to be poor especially against this Seattle defense. Take Seattle Seahawks.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Detroit in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance at the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 86-40 since 1983 (6-2 L3 seasons) good for 68.3% winners and made a HUGE 42 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 74-33 since 1983 (10-5 L3 seasons) good for 69.2% winners and made a nice 37.7 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a poor 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging under 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992; 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 11. Jags are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week; 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones. Neither team has shown any ability to run the ball on the season with the Jags ranking 26th in the league, one spot ahead of Lions. The teams also rank at the bottom of the NFL in forcing turnovers. The Jags are rested and looking to win. Take Jacksonville Jaguars. 

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by less than 5 and have a shot of the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 21.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Garrett is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a home favorite; 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse; 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of Dallas. Harbaugh is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and he is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of Baltimore. Ravens are 4-0 straight up against the Cowboys since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Baltimore has won its last five games against teams starting rookie quarterbacks. Take Baltimore Ravens.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Indianapolis in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by seven or more points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs.' 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tenn is a stout 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards; 65-20 ATS (+43.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards; Indy is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by

25* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Central Florida in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tulsa will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-10 ATS mark good for 79% winners since2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TULSA) excellent offensive team averaging >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG. Here is a Money Line system that has produced a 118-26 mark good for 82% winners and has made 60 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on road favorites vs. the money line (TULSA) and is a quick starting offensive team scoring 16+ PPG in the first half and after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The key metric is the Tulsa ground attack noting they are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Golden Hurricanes come into this game after a tough loss to Navy and controlling the option game which most likely cost them any chance of playing for a conference championship. Both squads look similar against their opponents on the year, however Tulsa brings the better offense today averaging over 42 points per game compared to 31 for Central Florida. Tulsa has a big play offense and lots of speed at the skill positions. Top three rushers average over 5 yards per carry to go with a good quarterback completing 58% of his passes with some big play wide outs. Central Florida has competed well, but does struggle to throw the ball which we think they will need to do to keep up with the high-powered Tulsa offense. Look for another big output from the Tulsa offense today and to cover the small number on the road.

25* graded play on Colorado as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game by more than 10 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington State is a money burning 48-94 ATS (-55.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt; Colorado is a stout 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears.

Both of these teams can be considered surprise teams and could very possibly meet again in a couple of weeks to Determine the Pac 12 Champions. After losing their first two games Washington State has one eight in a row and sets up to play a game next week against Washington in the Apple Cup for a right to play in the Championship Game. If Colorado wins today the Buffaloes will also be going to the Pac 12 championship game. Colorado has two losses both on the road at Michigan and USC. The Buffaloes put up 35 points per game and have only allowed18. The Buffaloes have won both low and high scoring games this year. Colorado QB Liufau has been very efficient this year completing over 67% of his passes with 10 TD's with only 3 picks. The Buffaloes will need to contain one of this years best QB's no one mentions in Luke Falk who completes 74% of his passes and has thrown 33 passing TD's this year. Colorado's secondary has been good and the red zone defense has been strong this year. Colorado is at home and needs this game more today and we think that will be the big difference today.

25* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Minnesota in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NWU will win this game at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-43 ATS mark good for 66% ATS winners since 2010. Play on road favorites (NORTHWESTERN) after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Northwestern is a stout 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points Minnesota has been in all close games this year but has lost in the big tests against Penn State, Nebraska, and Iowa. Minnesota QB Leitner has struggled this year and the Gophers rely on a power running game with play action passing to go with a fundamentally sound defense. Northwestern QB has heated up since the Wildcats went to an up-tempo offense. Most Big 10 teams don't see this offense and are not prepared for this type of attack. Northwestern becomes bowl eligible with this one and showed they could hold their own on the road going toe to toe with the Buckeyes in Columbus. We also feel Minnesota has a big game on deck with Wisconsin in Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. The Gophers haven't had the Axe since 2003 and may have more focus on the next game than the Wildcats schemes today. Take the Wildcats and lay the small number today.

25* graded play on NC State as they take on Miami in ACC action set to start at  12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-26 ATS mark good for 72% ATS winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’, good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by

25* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at  8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Saints will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-33 since 1983 (9-3 L5 seasons) good for 68.3% winners and made 34.7 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South; 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Carolina. Payton is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points as the coach of New Orleans and he is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of the Saints. Carolina is a poor 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South; 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Road team is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Saints. The Saints' Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. New Orleans RB Mark Ingram has recorded four touchdowns in his last three road contests. The Saints are a +2 in turnover ratio while the Panthers are -7 (fourth-worst in NFL). Take New Orleans Saints.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on the NY Giants in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 76.7% winners. Play against home teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Giants are 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in November games since 1992; 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games; 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record; 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 10.

Fundamental Discussion Points The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing. Eli threw 3 interceptions last week in a game that the Giants didn't win but that the Eagles lost. Giants are a 1 dimensional team on both sides of the ball and their quarterback is known for throwing interceptions in the regular season. Take Cincinnati Bengals.

25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Michigan in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a stout 23-5 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game; 25-5 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry.

Fundamental Discussion Points Iowa +21.5 vs Michigan

The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the undefeated Michigan Wolverines. Michigan has only played 2 games on the road this year, one being against an awful Rutgers football team and the other against Michigan St. whom they only beat by 9. The Wolverines don’t have much experience playing on the road this year and we all know home field advantage is big in college football. Iowa will come out and try to slow the game down, run the football effectively and keep the game close and keep Kinnick Stadium rocking against the third best team in the nation. We don’t expect the Hawkeyes to win this one but we do expect them to keep it well within 21 to cover the spread. Take the Hawkeyes as a big home dog.

50* graded play on USC as they take on Washington in PAC-12 action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at upsetting No.4 Washington. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-9 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (USC) that is an average defensive team allowing between 330 and 390 YPG and is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 280 to 330 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season, and after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Over the L3 season this system has gone an incredible 10-1 ATS. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is in good form noting they are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games.

Here is a bonus money line system that is one you truly should archive and keep track of for future qualifying plays. It has gone 23-14 SU for 62% winners and has made 41 units/unit wagered averaging a +240 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (USC) in a game involving two good rushing teams both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arguably the two best QB’s in the Conference and possibly the nation square off in this huge PAC-12 matchup. Jake Browning leads Washington with very impressive numbers that are worthy for the Heissman. He has throw for 2,273 yards with 34 TD, and 3 INT, but has yielded 11 sacks. USC has Darnold under center and he has been excellent in his own right passing for 1,874 yards with 20 TD and 4 INT. The key to this game, though is I fully expect the Trojan OL and DL to outperform Washington’s editions. Moreover, I expect USC DL to squash the run and force Browning into third down pass situations where USC has elite speed in either man coverage or zone schemes. USC OL will be strong enough to establish the run and then Darnold will have play action pass where he will have man coverage on the perimeter with highly skilled WR.

25* graded play on South Florida as they take on Memphis in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SFU will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S FLORIDA) excellent offensive team scoring 35 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SFU is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. Memphis is just 11-32 ATS (-24.2 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards; 13-42 ATS (-33.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board South Florida.

South Florida -3.5 at Memphis

The South Florida Bulls hit the road to take on the Memphis Tigers at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. South Florida enters the game at 7-2 and Memphis enters at 6-3. The big factor in this game is Quinton Flowers, South Florida’s duel threat QB. Flowers has thrown for 1,900 yards and 19 TD’s as well as ran for 921 yards and 10 TD’s. The Bulls average 272 rushing yards per game and the Tigers give up 194 yards on the ground per game. Flowers is the key to the Bulls success offensively and the Tigers will have their hands full trying to just slow him down. The Tigers QB Riley Ferguson is quite the player himself throwing for 21 touchdowns this year. The Bulls secondary must be good in this one and their front 4 will need to get a pass rush on Ferguson. South Florida’s offense will be too much to handle for the Tigers in this one. Take South Florida as a favorite on the road.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Indiana in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a stout 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 110-37 ATS (+69.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points In this week’s Big Ten action between 10th ranked Penn State and Indiana, our SIM predict Penn State will emerge victorious once again and cover the spread. Following last week’s defeat of Iowa, many are confident Penn State will be able to win out the rest of their schedule, in the hopes of getting a top bowl game, and potentially playing in the Big Ten Championship. PSU running back Saquon Barkley is surging right now, and the PSU offense in turn is doing well because of him, as he makes a late season push for Heisman contention. He ran for 100 yards in the past 3 out of 4 games, and ran for over 200 in 2 out of those 3 games. The Penn State defense has been progressing throughout the past few games as well, allowing 314 yards per game against Purdue and then 234 yards per game against Iowa. The key for the defense this weekend is to shut down QB Richard Lagow and RB Devine Redding. Once they close down the running lanes and take advantage of mistakes made by Lagow (who is tied for most interceptions in Big Ten), the PSU defense will dominate. PSU has the edge in all of the aspects of this game, including team chemistry, and look for them to beat Indiana handily this Saturday.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by 17 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in road games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; Tennessee is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Volunteers.

Tennessee -13.5 vs Kentucky

Kentucky (5-4) travels to Knoxville, Tennessee to play the Volunteers (6-3). In this one we look for Tennessee’s offense led by QB Joshua Dobbs to score some points against Kentucky’s defense who gives up 30.4 points per game. Dobbs has thrown for 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. The key to Tennessee’s success defensively is to stop Kentucky’s running game. Kentucky averages 215 yards per game on the ground. If Tennessee can slow down their running game and keep the ball in Joshua Dobbs hands they should have no problem in this one. Take Tennessee as the home favorite.

25* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ASU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ASU is a strong 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992; 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Utah is a poor 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Whittingham is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah. Graham is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Sun Devils are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games. Sun Devils are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Utes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Fundamental Discussion Points ASU's sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins will be back after he missed two of the last four contests, and missed most of one of the other games due to injuries. Junior tailback Demario Richard has a team-best 532 rushing yards and is expected back after missing the last game because of injury. Never underestimate the starting QB and HB in football coming back from injuries to boost the team to a victory. Sun Devils senior K Zane Gonzalez is 20-of-21 on field goals this season and his 93 career field goals are the most in FBS history. Take Arizona State University Sun Devils.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Cleveland Browns in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by more than 13 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland has not done well against struggling passing defenses like Baltimore’s edition this season. They are a terrible 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; Cleveland is also just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.  Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. The Ravens have won 15 of the past 17 meetings. Ravens TE Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 102 yards (both season highs) in Week 2's Cleveland contest. Take Baltimore Ravens.