25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on Northwestern in the Gator Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi State will win this game. The public has been all over Northwestern and this adds even more personal confidence with this releases. I monitor 12 books and when the number of bets exceeds 70% of all bets on one team, it throws up a red flag for the public betting. I always like a play that is reinforced by one that it is on the books side meaning there are far more bets being made on Northwestern than State. Sim shows a very high probability that State will score 28 or more points. In past games, State is a solid 5-2 ATS this seasons, 13-5 ATS the past three seasons and 52-23 ATS since 1992. HC Fitzgerald is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of NW. HC Mullen is a resounding 8-1 ATS after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Bulldogs run a balanced attack; they passed four more times than ran the ball for the season. However, they have a huge advantage using the passing game to set up the run. Northwestern ranks 101st in the nation and were dead last in the Big Ten allowing 268 passing yards per game. Consider that the BIG Ten had some of the weakest passing attacks of any conference and you immediately see the big time reasons State will pass the ball up to 60% of all plays run in this game. Bulldogs rank 32nd in the nation allowing 23.6 PPG and this against SEC teams. Take Mississippi State.

25* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the LSU Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Bowl set to be played in the Georgia Dome beginning at 7:30 PM ET. I also like a 10* play OVER the posted total of 58 points. This matchup is a very exciting one as it pits one of the nation

25* graded play on the USC Trojans as they take on Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Southern Cal will win this game by 10 or more points. Trojans were the preseason AP No.1 ranked team and after a tumultuous season and the loss of their preseason Heisman candidate QB Matt Barkley, they do have one more opportunity to play a great positive game to springboard the team into the 2013 campaign. This marks the first bowl game in twp seasons for the Trojans after being banned by the NCAA for violations. Head Coach Lane Kiffin, will have his team fired up for this game even though it is a far cry from a BCS Bowl and the fact they are playing a team with a losing record of 6-7 from the ACC. Winning Bowl Games significantly helps recruiting efforts and also is quite motivating for the Seniors to go out winning their last game for the school program. The Georgia Tech defense has no single defender that can match up in man coverage to defend Trojan wideouts Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. I still maintain they are one of the best 1-2 punches in college football. Redshirt Freshman, Max Wittek, played extremely well in his first start against No.1 Notre Dame and that confidence will spillover to this bowl game. He was 14 of 23 for 186 passing yards against ND. Now he gets to pass against a Tech passing defense ranked 102nd in the nation allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Triple Option that Tech runs on offense is a high risk scheme that is difficult for many opponents to prepare for with just 6 games of prep time. With the exception of FSU, Tech has not faced a defense with the team speed that exemplifies the Trojans. USC has some very smart and athletic players and the key to the defending the Triple Option is sealing the edges and forcing the play back to the middle of the field. I strongly believe that the Trojans defense will handle this scheme well and will force Tech into third and long situations far too many times. I like USC to win this game by double digits. USC HC Kiffen is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

30* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Washington Redskins in a winner take all game for the NFC East Title. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. I like playing this game as a combination bet using a 19* amount on the line and a 6* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. 61% of all of the games won covered the spread by seven or more points. I like how the Cowboys defensive unit matches up against RG3 and crew. They key and

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Arizona Cardinals set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 20 or more points. The playoff picture is in the 49ers hands and with a loss by Green Bay, who is on the road against Minnesota, could secure the No.2 seed in the NFC and the all important first round BYE. The 49ers defense, even without Justin Smith will have a huge day against arguably the weakest offense in the NFL. The 49ers defensive unit ranks third in the NFL allowing 17.3 PPG, second allowing 297 total yards, third posting a 0.271 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing 4.6 YPP, and third allowing 1.9 TD per game. This unit will be matched up against Arizona, who ranks 30th scoring an average of just 15.8 PPG, 32nd gaining 263 YPG, 31st posting a 0.246 points per play ratio, 32nd gaining just 4.1 YPP, and 30th scoring 1.6 TD per game. The 49ers ground gain will be on full display today. They rank second gaining 5.2 YPR, and fourth gaining 157.3 rushing yards per game. Arizona ranks 22nd allowing 4.4 RYC, and 28th allowing 138 rushing yards per game. This strong running game will give QB Kaepernick play action and oodles of time to survey the field. Vernon Davis may not see any action today, but in this situation, it does not matter, who the receivers are on the field. 49ers have big time advantages with the OL and DL lines over the Cardinal units and this will be dominant reason the 49ers win this game big. The sim shows a high probability that the 49ers will score 28 or more points. In past games, where they have achieved this measure of offensive output they are 6-0 ATS this season and 11-1 ATS the past three seasons. The sim shows that they will outgain the Cardinals by a minimum of 2.0 yards per play and in games where this has occurred they are 6-0 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 33-10 ATS since 1992. Take the 49ers.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Chicago Bears set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will win this game and end their current seven-game losing streak. The Detroit offense is one of the top yards producing units in the NFl, but they have struggled in red zone situations this season. However, this is a team, despite their losing record, that has put out full effort each week and has steadily improved in all facets of offensive execution. The defense is in large part has been problematic throughout the season. Yet, their run defense is vastly better than the one that was gashed for 170 rushing yards in the Week 7 loss to the Bears. The Bears OL has played some of their most inconsistent games of the season in recent weeks and I strongly believe that DC Cunningham will look to untrack Forte and Allen with a steady dose of interior stunts and more zone run blitzes. This does not put them at risk on underneath or vertical play action passes either. If the Bears choose to pass, then these interior stunts get pressure up in Cutler

15* graded play on TCU as they take on Michigan State in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl set to start at 10:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-2 record for 93% winners since 1992. Play on neutral field favorites vs. the money line off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival with the game being played on a Saturday. Moreover, MSU is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Rice is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. Take the Horned Frogs.

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on the Oregon State Beavers in the Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. I like using a combination bet for this opportunity placing a 20* wager using the line and a 5* amount using the money line. Texas enters this fray on a two-game skid losing to Iowa State and TCU both at home and failing to cover in both. They put together two four-game winning streaks this season starting out 4-0 before losing two straight and then winning the next four games. Sim shows a high probability that Texas defense will hold Oregon State to fewer than 150 rushing yards. In past games where Texas has held an opponent to between 100 and 150 rushing yards they are 2-0 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-16 ATS since 1992. The sim also shows that Texas will get the offense into high gear and score more than 28 points. In past games where they scored 28 or more points Oregon State is 6-10 ATS the past three seasons and 31-66 ATS since 1992. Texas QB McCoy and injured LB Hicks were sent home for violating curfew rules. Note though that HC Mack Brown had already made his decision to start David Ash at QB since he is among the TOP-10 in passing efficiency. The Texas defense is playing very well after starting out the season allowing 35 PPG. Over the past five games they have allowed 21 PPg and just 328 offensive yards. OSU has a deep threat weapon in WR Wheaton, who ranks 11th nationally averaging 101 receiving yards per game. I strongly believe that the Texas defense will be able to bracket him with the use of a safety and that the Texas defensive front will be able to do a great job stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. Look for interceptions by the Longhorns on passes targeted to Wheaton on short underneath routes. The Longhorns can play a very complex zone-man scheme that can make reads extremely difficult. Take the Longhorns.

15* graded play on Navy as they take on Arizona State in the Kraft Fight for Hunger Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Navy made a chance at leadership and moved Trey Miller to the QB position and they have won seven of the last eight games. He is an excellent disciplined decision maker in the triple option offensive attack and I truly believe this is going to cause defensive problems for ASU. RB Gee Greene is an excellent elusive running back, who is difficult to bring down when running in space. Defending the triple option requires defensive discipline from all three levels, especially the safeties. ASU has been prone to reacting to fakes and getting out of a position all season and now could be exploited even more with the triple option attack. Navy OL does an incredible job of getting off the first block and getting to the second level and this requires the safeties to take correct angles and maintain leverage on the perimeter. I believe Navy will have some big plays out of the triple option and will take advantage of ASU defensive misreads. ASU is just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games facing good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards per carry since 1992; 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. ASU is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992. Take Navy.

15* graded play on the Air Force Academy as they take on the Rice Owls set to start at 11:45 AM in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will win this game by three or more points. AF is a solid 16-6 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. Rice truly turned around the ugliest possible start to any season winning five of their last six games. However, Rice is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Sim shows a high probability that AF will gain more than 300 rushing yards and will score more than 28 points. In past games, Rice is just 8-15 ATS the past three seasons and 43-88 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points and are just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 6-17 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 300 or more rushing yards. AF ranks third in the nation gaining 215 rushing yards per game and Rice is not going to be able to contain this attack for 60 minutes. They rank 89th allowing 193 rushing yards per game. Take Air Force.

25* graded play on the Ohio Bobcats as they take on the UL-Monroe Warhawks set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio University will lose this game by fewer than six points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given the projections and as you are steadily seeing from previous reports, I like using a combination bet when I have a DOG that I believe can win the game. In this case, i am playing this game with a 20* amount on the line and a 5* using the money line. This does not mean that MUST do the same thing, of course. If you like playing the line only that is perfectly fine. I only have found through 18-years, that when I have a dog that can win, I can make a little more cabbage by splitting the bet to make a combination OVER the course of many plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-61 money line record for just 46% winners, but has made a whopping 51 units per one unit wagered since 2006. The system has averaged a +220 dog and reflects how these combination bets can augment total return over the course of a season. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line after allowing 8 or more passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Situationally, Monroe comes into this bowl game off a 23-17 win and covered as 3

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Duke in the Belk Bowl set to start at 6:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bearcats will win this game by 13 or more points. The key and dominant theme to this game is this the 28 point total for Cincinnati. The sim shows an extremely high probability that Cincinnati will score 28 or more points. In past games, where the Bearcats have scored 28 or more points, they are 5-1 ATS this season, 16-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 66-23 ATYS since 1992. Duke is just 1-6 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS the past three seasons, and 41-93 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Duke Head Coach Cutcliffe is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards per play. The most difficult part of this bowl matchup to quantify is adjusting their respective performances based on the vastly differing strengths of schedule each team has played. Cincinnati played a much easier schedule, however, after adjusting for the weaker schedule and conference, they have a slightly better offense and a significantly stronger defensive unit. The key is the Bears defense that ranks 13th in the nation allowing 18.2 PPG that will dominate a Duke offensive unit that ranks 55th averaging 29.3 PPG and 89th averaging 5.1 YPP. The Bearcats had the fortunate situation of having a very good bench quarterback in Brendon Kay being able to step in for season starter Legaux. Kay has proven to be a better decision maker and throws an excellent deep ball. Duke plays a somewhat rare 4-2-5 defensive scheme, which opens up opportunities in underneath routes and yards after the catch. Kay can throw the deep ball, even though there will be three safeties on the field. Duke has struggled during games in zone coverage assignments and vertical post patterns have hurt them this season. This is the Cincinnati strength off of play action and their quick strike ability could take Duke out of this game before halftime. Take the Bearcats.

25* graded play on the Western Kentucky as they take on Central Michigan in the Little Caesars Bowl set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win this game by seven or more points. Let

25* graded play on the the SMU Mustangs as they take on Fresno State in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and I also believe they can post a major upset win. Given the projections I am going to play this as a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-24 record using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 50 units per one unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged an incredible 306 dog play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line that has been a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards per play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Here is a second money line system that has hit just 32% winners for a 32-67 mark, BUT has made 92 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +497 money line dog play. Play on dogs of +315 or higher using the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Fresno State has had an excellent season and in large part due to an opportunistic defensive group averaging 2.9 takeaways per game good for second best in the nation. However, SMU, does a solid job at not turning the ball over ranking 58th averaging 1.6 giveaways per game. Moreover, they rank sixth in time-of-possession, which reflects their ability to execute time consuming scoring drives. Although they are a pass dominant team, they can run the ball effectively off of the passing game. SMU QB Gilbert will have to locate FSU safety Thomas on every approach to the LOS. He has eight picks on the season and three were returned for touchdowns. These interceptions have come when he is lined up in the slot, but in this matchup he will have his hands full with Darius Johnson, who will achieve separation from him allowing Gilbert to make high percentage underneath completions. Gilbert has not thrown an interception in his last five games, but can be erratic at points in the game. Gilbert needs to simply execute what FSU defense gives him to complete and not force throws to make plays. One huge advantage for SMU is on the defensive side with Margus Hunt, who will lined up against true freshman Alex Fifita. Hunt will blow him off the ball with his bull rush and has the upper body strength to shed him to make tackles on the RB. He will line up straight in front of Fifita making it very difficult for him to get leverage and protect the edge. It also makes it more challenging for the guards and TE to provide help in pass blocking. Hunt could dominate this game and force FSU to double team him on nearly every play. This opens up the SMU defense to then bring pressure from either side having a big edge in the numbers. I like SMU a lot and as mentioned I am playing a 20* on the line and a 5* on the money line expecting the upset potential.

25* graded play on the the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in a key battle and game for the NFC West supremacy. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. Wilson has been the first QB to win his first six home games since the 1970 merger. However, his hot streak started after his season low 38.7 QB rating at SF and that sort of performance sticks with any player having to face that same defense again. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but the edge definitely sides with the 49ers. The 49ers built a 28 point lead in Foxborough and then held on for a 41-34 win after the Patriots had tied the game with an incredible offensive second half. Safe to say, the majority, if not all NFL teams would have caved in after blowing a 28 point lead to the Patriots, but the 49ers held firm and executed when it mattered most. That game proved to Kaepernick and the entire team that they are truly one of the Super Bowl contending teams. Vernon Davis will again be the focus of the Seattle defense. he has the rare combination of size, athleticism, and elite speed to overwhelm any second level defender. Seattle has a great safety in 6-foot-3 232 pound Kam Chancellor. He will most definitely be highly effective in over the top coverage against Davis, when the 49ers look to stretch the field. The problem is though, that this removes a safety that would be great in run support. This will allow the 49ers to establish RB Frank Gore between the tackles, which in turn will eventually set up man coverage down the seam with Davis. Much has been said about the read-option that has been clicking on all cylinders in Seattle. however, the 49ers, at times, run a variation of that scheme where Gore sets up deep in the backfield and Kaepernick reads linebacker positions and then makes a pre-snap call when to run or use play action. This is what built the 28-3 lead in Foxborough and it will be very successful against the Seahawks. Having Davis run crossing routes, will also open up underneath routes and

This is the first of THREE 25* Titan releases in the NFL and there is also the NBA (18-9 ATS) and College Hardwood (17-9 ATS) plays as well. 25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and have a solid shot at winning the game. I like playing this game as a combination bet wagering 20* unit on the line and a 5* amount using the money line. KC may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the one thing they do very well is run the ball. This run unit will be matched up against arguably one of the worst run stoppers in the NFL. Moreover, the Colts are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when facing good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season since 1992. KC ranks seventh in the NFL averaging 139 rushing yards per game, eighth averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and seventh averaging 31 rushing plays per game. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL allowing 4.8 rushing yards per carry and 24th allowing 125 rushing yards per game. The Colts continue to win despite committing far too many turnovers. They rank 30th with a -1.2 turnover margin per game. Luck ranks 26th in the NFl throwing a pick on 3.19% of all plays run. sim shows a high probability that KC will rush for more than 150 yards,. In past games, the Colts are just 0-3 ATS this season and 4-13 ATS the past three seasons, and 27-80 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 or more rushing yards in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1983. Play on road favorites after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75%of their games and now playing a team with a losing record with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Take the Kansas City Chiefs.

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Minnesota Vikings set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game by 10 or more points. I believe this will be a blowout win by the Texans based on the body of research I have studied and analyzed. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 for 75% winners since 2002. Play on a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points that is a good team that is out gaining opponents by 40 to 100 YPG and now facing an ordinary team (+/- 40 YPG) and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Houston ranks third best in the NFL averaging 28.1 PPG, sixth averaging 387 YPG, 10th posting a 0.403 points per play ratio, seventh in Red Zone scoring a TD on 58% of all red zone possessions, and fourth averaging 4.1 TD per game. Minnesota defense will have more than its hands full trying to stop the Texans offensive attack today. The Vikings defense ranks 14th allowing 22.0 PPG, 19th allowing 358 YPG, eighth posting a 0.318 points per play ratio, 30th allowing opponents to convert 43% of their third down situations, and 24th allowing 59% Red Zone touchdowns. Houston has a very good defensive front seven that will be able to contain the elite RB Peterson and force the Vikings anemic passing attack to try and make plays to move the chains. Texans DC Wade Phillips is at his best stopping the best NFL RB and he will bring as many as nine men into the box today and has a wide array of zone run blitz schemes that also serve to negate any play action by QB Ponder. I strongly believe this will be a long day for the Vikings. Take the Texans.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at stunning the Falcons. The public and media are making a little much on the fact that with a win, the Falcons clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and will prepare for the Lions as if it were a playoff type of situation. Problem is that the Lions have several matchups that favor them being extremely competitive in this game and it starts with Calvin Johnson, who has a real shot at breaking the season receiving yards record. He is the best receiver in the game and I have yet to see any single DB be able to handle him on the perimeter. This forces defenses to have safeties

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Washington set to start at 3:30 PM ET in the Las Vegas Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by seven or more points. We have all grown accustomed to the Boise State football program reflecting an elite offensive unit that simply outscores opponents to win games. This year

25* graded play on Louisiana Lafayette (LL) as they host East Carolina in the New Orleans Bowl set to start at Noon ET December 22, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that LL will win this game by seven or more points. The sim also shows a very high probability that 28 or more points will be scored in this game. In past games, LL is a solid 6-2 ATS this season, 16-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 44-20 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 27 or 68% of the winning plays covered the spread by seven or more points and this underscores my belief that Ll can win this game by double digits. The matchup of this game is the spread passing attack of the Pirates going up against a suspect Cajuns back seven. However, I see this in a far different angle. The Cajuns went to a four man defensive front late this season and has paid off handsomely. The Pirates already struggle to run the ball and will NOT be able to sustain the run. This forces red shirt sophomore Shane Carden to win the game with his arm. The Cajuns play mostly zone, but with the four man front will be able to get pressure on Carden and fill passing lanes. This will allow the back seven to target receivers in their zone coverage scheme far more accurately. The bigger advantage for the Cajuns is with their dynamic QB Terrance Broadway, who certainly exemplifies the strong play of Michigan

25* graded play on the BYU COugars as they take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl set to start 8:00 PM ET. This game will be on ESPN and ESPN3D for your viewing enjoyment. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by six or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS record for 76% winners since 2002. Play against all dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight wins facing conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 50% of all the games played based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by seven or more points and underscores my strong belief that this will be a 10+ point BYU win. For money line players, here is a system that has gone 92-36 for 72% winners since 2006. Play on a road team using the money line that is a quick starting offensive team scoring 16+ PPG in the first half and after a win by 35 or more points. I am expecting BYU to get off to a fast start and then their significant size and physicality advantages on both sides of the ball will steadily wear down the Aztecs. The Aztec defense plays well, but are undersized against the BYU OL. They must take leveraged angles and maintain gap discipline, both of which they are vastly inconsistent at executing. Moreover, the Aztec third level are for the most part poor tacklers and will be vulnerable to the many different screen passes that BYU runs. BYU has a luxury in two solid QB in their stable only discovered by the injury of Senior starter Riley Nelson that gave fellow Senior James Lark at shot at starting for the first time in his career. Lark delivered in that first start throwing for 6 TD. Lark is excellent at getting the ball out quickly and has the WR corp that get enough separation for Lark to easily complete underneath passes. he also leads them well for after the catch yardage. Riley has a much more accurate arm in middle and long distance throws, but also can execute underneath routes nearly as equal. Since they are both Seniors playing in their last game, it only stands to reason that the coaching staff will elect to use both of them in this bowl game and in my opinion, it makes the Cougars that much more dangerous and even more difficult for the Aztecs to prepare for. BYU ranks fourth best in the FBS allowing just 14.8 PPG and second in both opponent yards per rush at 2.7 and opponents rushes per game at 30 attempts. Aztecs are a run dominated offensive team and their inability to establish the run is going to make it extremely difficult for them to compete for four quarters with the Cougars. Take BYU.

25* graded play on the the New York Jets as they take on the Tennessee Titans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game and keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Let

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the San Francisco 49ers set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-26 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2006. Play on dogs or pick after a win by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. I really don

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they host the Indy Colts in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game by 13 or more points. Colts are just 4-14 ATS in road games facing good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Houston is a stout 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Houston had lost only once before last Sunday

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 4:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. On paper, the statistics show why Utah State should be favored in this bowl. However, the individual matchups show that this is just too many points to be laying to a solid Toledo team. Toledo RB David Fluellen is a solid runner and has lateral agility to make Utah State

25* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by six or more points. The Eagles are coming off a last play win, their first in more than two months that stopped the longest franchise losing streak since 1942 at eight games. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost to last play Dallas field goal. The win would have put the Bengals a game ahead of the Steelers after they had lost miserably to the Chargers at home. The best schedule for a pro football team after a tough loss is to have a Thursday game. Although a short week, it helps to immediately focus on the next opponent. The Bengals know they control their own destiny by winning this game and then having 11 days to prepare for the big showdown in Pittsburgh next week. The Eagles defense played better in their win over the Bucs, but it was more attributed to poor play calling in key situations and lack of complete execution. The Bengals offense has dominant advantages in many facets of the overall matchup. Bengals rank 11th in the NFL scoring 24.7 PPG, 12th posting a 0.387 points per play ratio, 10th averaging 2.8 TD per game, and 11th converting red zone situations into TD

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 6 or more points. Houston is banged up in the secondary and especially thin at cornerback. The Patriots will spread the field, not surprisingly, and run the entire offense from that base formation. Houston must respect the run with Stephen Ridley even in the spread. He isi a weapon where Brady can use play action and then look to vertical routes in man coverage. He will always have a check down back to the running back. Much has been talked about with J.J. Watt

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 8:20 PM ET and will be televised by Sunday Night Football on NBC. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will cover this 6 point spread and have a solid shot at getting back to winning ways. Detroit has lost 4 straight games and have only pushed one of these games losing the other three. The Packers have won six of seven and are 5-2 ATS in those games. We have a situation here where the Packers have no accumulated a huge betting bandwagon while Detroit has very few backers. These are the matchups in the NFL that can produce very shocking results and I fully expect Detroit to play very well tonight. Let

This marks the first of three Top Rated 25* NFL releases for the Sunday card. They will be released at different times Saturday as I prepare each report. 25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by three or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. The Falcons picked Brees five times last week, but know they have to prepare for a duel threat in Cam Newton. Four weeks ago, the Carolina offense reduced the number of reads for Cam and it has paid off big. He has thrown 8 TD with no picks making early decisive reads. Atlanta

Ryan has posted a 41-17-1 ATS mark in All Sports for 71% ATS winners led by a remarkable run in the NFL with a 14-3 ATS bookie slaying good for 82% winners. He went 2-0 ATS Saturday and has won FIVE straight 25* Top rated Titans. His research always shows you why he is betting the game big.


10* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Indy Colts set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Titans will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have an excellent shot at an upset road win. Given the projections, I like using a combination bet playing a 7.5* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Colts are a weak 10-23 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992. This is a history lesson, but it also reflects how winning teams get over valued in the second half of the season, especially when playing an apparent struggling team. Tennessee, for mostly the same reason, is a stout 32-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in turnover differential and the Titans have significant OL and DL advantages on both sides of the ball. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-54 record for 65% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points per game and after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Locker was sacked six times and threw 3 picks in last week

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and I fully expect them to win the game. This is another opportunity use a combination bet playing a 19* amount using the money line and a 6* amount playing the money line. On the surface, it is extremely difficult to put together extending winning streaks in the NFl given the parity of the teams. The Bengals are no exception as their head coach Lewis is 3-14 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of the Bengals. Having DeMarco Murray back in the lineup is a pure godsend for Tony Romo. The Bengals have been largely inconsistent defending the run and I fully expect Murray to have a 90+ yard rushing game. This in turn sets up play action where Romo is clearly at his best. Romo will be able to stretch the Bengal defense and this only augments the advantages Dallas has in the ground attack. The sim shows that Dallas will pass for better than 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. Bengals are winless going 0-6 ATS when they have allowed more than 6.5 net passing yards per attempt spanning the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 ATS for 79% ATS winners since 2006. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points winning between 51% and 60% of their games with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. Bengals last three wins have come against Chiefs, San Diego, and Oakland. Not playoff contenders by any means. Now, the tragedy and senseless death of Brown, who had risen from Arena football obscurity, then advanced to the CFL, then became a Cowboy. Josh Brent finds himself having to deal with killing one of his best friends in his life and the Cowboy team will endure a period of grieving. However, sport, of any kind, is nearly always a great place for athletes to begin this process. I thought long and hard about releasing this play given the tragic event and in no means am I making this play presuming that the Cowboys will put on a greater effort because of it. I do believe that once the game begins, the team will be focused on winning the game and the need to continue their chances for a playoff berth. Take the Cowboys.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Denver has done a great job against WR this season. The Raiders Denarius Moore played so badly and had so many poorly executed routes that he was benched. He and Darious Heyward-Bey have elite speed and when play focused are always a threat to the perimeter of a defense. However, the real weakness of the Denver defense is underneath where TE have absolutely torched them this season. Oakland has Brandon Myers, who is going to be a nightmare in coverage and is coming off a 14 reception 130 yard game last week. The Raiders can spread the field with their speedsters on the perimeter and then use Myers and RB Marcel Reece for slant and

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the New York Giants a very important divisional shown in the NFC East set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and I strongly believe they will the game outright. Dallas came from behind and got a huge win over the Eagles Sunday night and the Redskins need to do the same thing to stay in playoff contention with just four games remaining after tonight

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The Bears run defense has been quite weak allowing at least a hundred yards in five straight games and just last week Peterson got 108 rushing yards on just 18 carries. Russell has been great throwing 12 TD and just 2 picks and just 2 picks in this last 6 games. He is not RG3, but he will not make mistakes that take his team out of games. The Bears are very thin across the OL having lost Spencer and Louis to injuries last week. Moreover, they gave up the third most sacks in the NFL with a complete OL. Many of those sacks were not all the OL fault as Cutler still has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. So, in my opinion, we have a pick here, where we have better OL and DL and significantly healthier team in Seattle. Seattle did struggle on defense last week in their 24-21 loss at Miami and were gashed for more than 400 offensive yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-31 ATS for 70% winners since 2002. Play on road teams off a road loss with the game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Seattle.

25* graded play on South Florida as they take on Hawaii set to start at 11:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that South Alabama (SA) will lose this game by seven or fewer points. I like adding a 3* amount using the money line. Here are some supporting game situations reinforcing the simulator projections. Hawaii is just 2-10 ATS when facing poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. SA has lost five straight games and got blown out 52-20 by LA-Lafayette last week in a game where they were installed as 18 point dogs. However, Here is a system that underscores the bounce-back impact I see SA having for this game. This system has gone a solid 85-46 ATS for 65% winners since 1992. Play on any team off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning and now playing against a team with new QB. 42% of the games played have covered the spread by seven or more points and this underscores my belief you may see SA upset Hawaii on the island. Hawaii simply has no offensive threat, even when playing against a two-2in SA team. They rank 117th in the nation averaging 17.7 PPG, 123rd averaging just 279 yards per game, 123rd averaging 3.8 yards per play, and 113th posting a 73% red zone scoring percentage. SA defense is certainly not an elite unit, but they will look like one against Hawaii. Moreover, the Hawaii defense ranks 124th allowing opponents to score 95% of all red zone possessions. Take South Alabama.

30* graded play on the Georgia Bulldogs as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game set to start at 4:00 PM ET in Atlanta, Georgia. I also like this game to soar over the posted total for a 10* graded amount. Do not play amy parlay with this combination given the risk of the 25* amount. The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. I like adding a 4* amount using the money line and not utilizing a combination bet that would still total 25* units of risk. Despite, the

25* graded play on the Baylor Bears as they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Baylor will lose this game by five or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. Given the upset potential, I like playing a combination bet for this game playing a 20* unit plus the points and a 5* unit using the money line. One of the biggest factors for this game is I do not see the Cowboys bouncing back from the annual Bedlam loss last week to Oklahoma. The Cowboys never trailed in the game until the last play of OT when the Sooners ended the game with a FG winning the wild game 51-48. Moreover, this will be the eighth straight game played in as many weeks and the physical and mental fatigue is great by itself, but when slammed with an OT loss in the big rivalry game, it becomes incredibly hard to bounce back. Cowboys are a strong offensive team, but Baylor is a solid 9-2 ATS when facing good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Baylor head coach Briles is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. Take Baylor.

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Kent State in a huge MAC showdown set to start at 7:00 PM ET. This is the MaratThe simulator shows a high probability that Northern Illinois will win this game by 10 or more points. NI has significant advantages in the matchups on both sides of the ball. Kent State has had the best season in school history and is guaranteed to play in their first postseason bowl game since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl. There is a lot more at stake, though as the winner of this game could get an automatic bid to a BCS Bowl game, if the rank 16th or higher in the final BCS standings. NI QB Jordan Lynch ought to be in the Heisman race as he ranks third in the FBS averaging 363 yards of total offense. he has had a game throwing for over 400 passing and another game where he rushed for over 200 yards. He set a FBS record for a QB by gaining 100 or more rushing yards in 10 straight games. Although Kent State has done a very good job defending the run, facing the dual threat of Lynch, who has passed for 23 TD with just 4 interceptions and adds 16 more TD

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the New Orleans Saints set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by six or more points. The biggest obstacle for the Saints making a run toward the playoffs has been their defense, especially at the third level. I strongly believe Matt Ryan will come out in a four WR, 1 RB set spreading the field and isolating the man coverage best suited for what the Saints defense is showing. I also believe they will sue the no-huddle attack as well and not allow the Saints time to make substitutions. The Falcons weapons include Julio Jones, Roddy White, and TE Gonzalez for starters. Nearly every team in the NFL has posted season-high passing and total offensive numbers against the Saints defense. Atlanta has one of the best and deepest offenses in the NFL, so it will be a matter of Ryan simply choosing which matchup to exploit. The sim shows a very high probability that Atlanta will score a minimum fo 28 points. In past games where the Falcons have scored 28 or more points they are 2-1 ATS this season, 15-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 75-18 ATS since 1992. In past games where the Saints defense has allowed 28 or more points, they are 2-4 ATS this season, 4-12 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-84 ATS since 1992. It all adds up to big night for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

25* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Louisville in a Big East showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN. Both teams are coming off tough losses. The fact that Louisville really had it

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 8:30 PM ET and will be televised by monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by four or more points. The Eagles, who have lost six straight games and failed to cover in their last five games will continue their demise tonight based on the sim projections. As much as you want Andy Ried to get at least one little piece of good fortune in his life after the last two seasons and the tragic horrid loss of his son, it just won

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take to the road to face the surging New Orleans Saints. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by a minimum of three points. The 49ers run a nearly perfectly balanced offensive attack with 50.4% of their plays called for the run. Still, the rank fourth best in the NFL averaging 6.1 YPP and will going up against the NFL-worst Saint defensive unit allowing 6.5 YPP. In the era of the passing attack, the 49ers rank 31st in the NFL throwing the ball 49.6% of their play, but rank best with a 69% completion percentage. Speaking of passing, the alleged quarterback controversy is vastly overblown in SF. How many coaches, Andy Ried included, would love to have this problem of two highly effective quarterbacks in their stable. Moreover, Alex Smith has shown in similar situations in his career, that he is a team-first member. Smith is also enjoying the best season of his career until he was knocked out with a concussion in Week 10 against the Rams. Colin Kaepernick was excellent Monday Night and if he starts, he adds an even greater amount of strength to the 49er running game. Both quarterbacks benefit from the strong rushing attack of Gore and Kendall Hunter, who are both averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry. Once the ground game is established, then either quarterback will use play action to exploit man coverage in the Saints secondary, who are dead last in the NFL allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are going to have huge days in my estimation. Sealing the deal here is the fact that the 49ers are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS when facing bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows a very high probability that the 49ers will gain better than 6.0 YPPP and in past games where they achieved this level of offensive success they are 5-0 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Brees is a great quarterback, but he simply can

25* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they host the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will win this game and that fewer than 50 points will be scored in this game. The UNDER play grades as a 10* play. The most important difference in these two teams is that TB runs a far more balanced offensive attack than Atlanta. TB runs the ball 45% of all plays called while Atlanta is very dependent on the passing selecting to run the ball just 37% of all plays called. Despite, running the ball more, the Bucs rank higher than the Falcons in several offensive categories. TB ranks fourth in the NFL scoring 28.7 PPG, 11th averaging 369 YPG, second posting a 0.473 points per play ratio, and third averaging 6.1 YPP. Atlanta ranks sixth averaging 27.0 PPG, eighth averaging 382 YPG, 10th averaging 0.408 points per play, and eighth averaging 5.8 yards per play. Falcons are just 15-35 ATS when facing solid offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992; 3-12 ATS when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=6 yards per play in the second half of the season since 1992. Atlanta must try to establish the run and not abandon that scope for at least the first three quarters of the game. The sim shows that the Falcons will rush for 75 or fewer yards. In past games, the Dirty Birds are just 1-3 ATS this season, 2-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 22-69 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 75 or fewer rushing yards. In games where the Bucs have allowed 75 or less rushing yards, they are 3-0 ATS, 6-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 60-23 ATS since 1992. The Bucs have developed one of the better running teams in the league featuring rookie RB Doug Martin. They will be going up against one of the weaker and more undersized defensive fronts in the NFL. Sim shows a very high probability that TB will averaging 5.5 rushing yards per carry or more. In past games where they have achieved this level of rushing success they are 3-0 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-11 ATS since 1992. As you can see, both teams need to establish the running game for far different reasons. TB has the clear and significant edge in the ground game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% ATS winners since 2002. Play against favorites after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in two straight games. Take Tampa Bay.

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they host the Denver Broncos set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line, which is being offered at +430 at most shops. So, if you are in a liminator pool, do not bet on Denver today. Denver is 7-3 on the season and have scored 30 or more points in five straight games. This has served to inflate the betting line to it

25* graded play on the Air Force Academy as they take on Fresno State in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. This is a game on extreme contrasting teams as AF uses the power running attack and FSU chooses to air out with the pass. Although AF is not as prolific on the scoreboard as Fresno, they can control the clock and the pace of play. Moreover, tjhey rank fifth in the nation converting 53.4% of their third down situations and this allow them to move the chains and keep Fresno off the field. Another area I like is when AF will use play action and pass the ball. They rank 123rd nationally passing just 16% of all plays run, but rank seventh in the nation averaging 9.2 yards per pass. This clearly shows that when they do pass, they catch the defense by surprise and Fresno has a tendency to bite on fakes and lack gap discipline when they were facing balanced offensive attacks. AF is coming off a 21-7 win over Hawaii and allowed just 37 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Moreover, they ran the ball 68 times for 338 yards and did not throw one pass in the win. AF is a solid 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992; 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-31 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2006. Play on a road team after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. Air Force will cover this huge number easily.

25* graded play on the the Oregon State Beavers as they take on the Oregon Ducks in the Battle of the Civil War with the winner getting the Platypus Trophy. A platypus as a bill like Duck (Oregon) and a tail like a Beaver (Oregon State). This trophy was stolen or lost for more than 40 years, before it was found buried deep in the back of a closet. A bit puzzling that no one knows whose closest it was or whether they were Beaver or Duck fans/graduates. The simulator shows a high probability that Oregon State will lose this game by fewer than eight points and I would not be surprised if they pull off the upset win. Emotionally, Oregon could not be any lower losing their chance at a National BCS Title bid with an overtime loss to conference foe Stanford. Stanford defeated the Ducks with sound execution on both sides of the ball, but their defense was quite disruptive with different looks on nearly every down. Oregon State has a similar defense to Stanford and I strongly believe they will do a great job against the No. 2 ranked scoring offense in the nation. Oregon State defense ranks second in the PAC-12 and 13th nationally allowing 108.7 rushing yards per game. The intangible is clearly that Oregon had much higher aspirations than defeating Oregon State and getting the Platypus Trophy. Having their 23-game streak of scoring 30 or more points broken against a team they were favored by three TD

25* graded play on Washington State as they host Washington in Pac-12 Rivalry Weekend action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. I like adding a 3* amount using the money line as there is a reasonable expectation that the Cougars could get a shocking upset win. Given that I am confident of the cover, I don

25* graded play on the Arkansas as they host LSU in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET, Friday, November 22. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. LSU had high expectations coming into this season and now they are playing out the slate. They have a very faint shot at reaching the SEC Conference Finals, but need Alabama to lose to Auburn and that is not very likely given that Alabama is favored by 32 points. So, the coaches can preach all they want about the importance of this game, but they and the players know that a shot a BCS bid is not going to happen. Arkansas has had a horrid season with just four wins and have covered just two of the 11 games played. The public is all over LSU based on the flash stats, but the specific matchups actually lend support to an Arkansas upset. LSU barely escaped last week against Mississippi and needed overtime to win 41-35 in a gem they were installed as a 19 point favorite. LSU does not have an elite offense and rely heavily on the power running game. Although, Arkansas ranks 84th allowing 32.1 PPG, they are an excellent run defense unit ranking 24th allowing 3.6 rushing yards per play. They also rank 24th allowing 130.5 rushing yards per game. Arkansas

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they host the Green Bay Packers set to start at 12:30 PM ET Thanksgiving Day. The Lions season is on the line and they must win this game to keep playoff hopes alive. JAX exploited Houston last week and many observers say that Houston just got caught flat against a miserable team. Yet, you can see what Chad Henne did to the Houston secondary last week and that extends to this week with an ultra-talented QB in Stafford. He has been largely inconsistent at times this season and certainly had his problems last week. He is very resilient though and generally follows a poor game with an outstanding one and no time is better to have a great game then now. One of the matchups I like a lot is Stafford can use TE Pettigrew as a second option check down receiver. The biggest problem this season for the Lions has been dropped passes and even Johnson has had his surprising issues with keeping the ball from hitting the ground. Detroit likes to run an offensive set with two RB and one TE. In this game, the matchups favor them to use one back in isolation with two TE. This will then give more power blocking to the ground attack, enable misdirection plays to develop, and then to give Stafford play action with man coverage on the perimeter with Johnson the target. One thing that will be quite evident in this game will be the steady dose of Arian Foster to pound the Lions defensive front. Detroit has been terrible in maintaining gap discipline with several defenders simply trying too hard to make plays. Knowing that Foster is going to get the ball a lot, actually gives them an advantage to keep gap discipline and have the DE contain the perimeter. There is a big difference in playing run as opposed to reacting to run and I think the Lions defensive front led by Fairly and Suh will do a great job. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity win the game. Houston has not played well in domes sporting a 4-13 ATS record. Kubiak is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in dome games. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-11 ML record for 77% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line in a game involving two excellent offensive teams gaining >=370 YPG after 8 or more games have been played and after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This play has averaged a +135 dog play and supports my strong belief that Detroit will cover and win the game.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Chicago Bears set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 10 or more points. The two best defensive units square off in this significant NFC showdown of division leaders. The Packers have won five straight games and trail the Bears by just 1 game. A Chicago loss, though, puts both teams at 7-3 and after a wild weekend fo results, the NFC playoff berths are up for grabs. Only the Atlanta Falcons can feel somewhat safe with a 9-1 record and three game lead over the Bucs in the NFC South. This game presents as a field possession game with both defensive units looking to force mistakes and give their offenses short fields to operate. SF defense ranks best in the NFL allowing just 14.1 PPG, second allowing 292 YPG, best allowing .228 opponent points per play. third allowing 4.7 yards per play, fourth allowing opponents to convert just 33% of their third down situations. By comparison, the Bears rank second in the NFL allowing 14.8 PPG, fifth allowing 307 YPG,second allowing .234 opponent points per play, fifth allowing 4.9 opponent yards per point, and second allowing opponents to convert 31.6% of their third down situations. Based on these two dominating defensive units, the offensive schemes will be a bit more conservative for the 49ers, but with backup QB Campbell under center for the Bears, they may look to spread the 49er defense a bit. Campbell has a very strong arm and can throw the vertical route pass well. However, he has not started or played enough to have any consistency in his reads and throwing motion. So, the Bears will still use a heavy dose of ball control type run and pass plays. The 49ers have a significant edge in the run game and the Bears defense has given up yards between the tackles this season despite being one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Alex Smith will start tonight now fully recovered from a concussion and obviously the offensive play calling will be to keep him upright and out of harms way by running any play that takes more than 3 seconds to develop. In summary, I find it hard to see the Bears being able to move the chains consistently against the 49er defensive unit. I do see the 49ers winning the field possession game and the TOP stat and that will be the two dominant reasons they win this game by double digits. In this matchup, fantasy owners may want to consider starting Crabtree, who would do well in a ball control type of game like this one presents. Take the 49ers.

30* graded play on the the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by three or fewer points and will win the game. I like an optional combination bet using a 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount using the Money Line. Pittsburgh is a solid 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team posting a win percentage of > 75% since 1992; 43-18 ATS when facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Baltimore is just 3-12 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. Steelers are a very resilient team and although the loss of Roethlisberger is significant it is not catastrophic to their chances to win this game. The Steelers are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS mark for 77% winners since 2002. Play against road teams where the line is +3

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Patriots will win this game by 12 or more points. The Patriots secondary has been attacked in recent weeks, but now they have Aqib Talib ready to start at corner. he is one of the best man coverage corners in the game and will make a significant contribution in this game even if he does not get an interception. At times he can single handedly eliminate a third of the field for the offense to attack and this then allows the Patriot safeties to be able to anticipate more to the opposite side of the field. Running back Ridley will be featured even more than usual in this game and I fully expect him to have his best all-around game of the season. The matchups are right there are so obvious that I can

25* graded play on the New York Jets as they take on the St. Louis Rams set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than three points and have a great opportunity finally play near their potential being away from the choke-hold that the NY media as on them. It truly cannot get any worse for the Jets and they do have a favorable matchup running the ball. Greene has the tools to have a big game against a young Rams defensive line. He can also be sued as a safety valve for either Tebow or Sanchez. Yes, I do think Tebow will see more playing time. The team is in disarray, no doubt, based on published unnamed sources complaining to the NY Daily news and NY Post during the week. But, at the end of the day, these are professional athletes and they play in NYC so I fully expect them to put in a strong effort. Tight end Dustin Keller could and should be targeted often in this game to move the chains and sustain drives. He is completely healthy for the first time this season and either quarterback is accurate enough to hit him on short pass-and-run type routes. Nothing would do more to limit the Rams pass rush than using Keller in this game. The Rams are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Fisher is just 1-11 ATS in home games when facing excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-9 ATS mark for an incredible 82% winners since 2006. Play on road teams off a road loss in November games. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. Take the Jets to make it six straight for this proven system this season.

25* graded play on Utah State as they take on Louisiana Tech. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah State will cover this game and probably win it SU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-2 MONEY LINE record for 93% winners since 1992. It is also a perfect 3-0 using the ML this season. Play on a road team using the money line that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 YPP and after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in three consecutive games. NO. 20 L-Tech will have it

25* graded play on the Michigan State Spartans as they host the Northwestern Wildcats set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 10 or more points. The MSU defense will be the dominant force in this game and will contain the Northwestern ground attack. The sim shows that NW will average between 4.0 to 4.5 yards per play and in past games MSU is a solid 25-11 ATS when they have held an opponent to this average range of yards gained per play. Moreover, NW is just 9-21 ATS when they have gained 250 to 300 total offensive yards in a game. MSU struggles on offense, but have one of the best team defenses in the Big Ten conference. Nationally, they rank 11th allowing 16.3 PPG, 6th allowing just 288 yards per game, 13th allowing 4.4 yards per play, 15th allowing opponents to convert just 31% of their third down opportunities. By comparison, the NW defense ranks 43rd allowing 26 PPG, 68th allowing 314 YPG, 45th allowing 5.3 yards per play, and 61st allowing opponents to convert 41% of their third situations. This is a matchup where MSU will be able to effectively move the ball on offense and score far more points than their season average. They key you will see, will be that MSU will not allow NW the same luxury. The MSU will make plays on third down and get off the field and over the course of the game, the MSU OL will steadily wear down the NW defensive front. Take the Spartans.

25* graded play on Hawaii as they take on Air Force in CFB action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Air Force is not a balanced offensive attack and rely nearly exclusively on the triple option scheme. They have not been able to take advantage of weak passing defenses and have gone just 13-29 ATS when facing poor passing defenses allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Hawaii is not a strong running team, but here again AF is just 14-28 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. Moreover, AF is just 3-16 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992; 7-24 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992. Hawaii has lost seven straight games and lost everyone to the spread. This does not ever mean that a team is DUE to cover ATS, but it does reflect that the Hawaii bandwagon is near empty and the betting public is all over whoever their opponent is. Nearly 82% of all bets being made are on AF reflecting this irrational exuberance. The line for this game has actually gone counter to the public sentiment showing clearly that the

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Buffalo Bills set to start at 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, November 15, 2012 The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. There will be no need to bring pressure on Tannehill given that both of Buffalo

25* graded play on the UVA as they host UNC in a big ACC showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by three or fewer points. I also like adding a 5* amount using the money line as an optional wager. Suddenly, the UNC defense riddled with probations has allowed a sea of yardage and points over their last three games. Just last game, they allowed 68 points to Georgia Tech in a 68-50 loss. UVA has suddenly given rebirth to Bowl hopes winning their last two games at NC State and last week in dramatic fashion with a 41-40 over the

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by 10 or fewer points in this Monday Night Football matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-9 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2006 and has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Play ON road teams off a road loss, with the game taking place n November games. This system clearly reflects the parity and ebb and flow of the NFL. Any team can look like contenders and then fall flat to teams that public sentiment showed they should defeat soundly. Case in point SF 49ers and Giants just yesterday. 19 of the winning plays covered the spread bny seven or more points, so this underscores the sim projections calling for this to be a single digit game. Placing an optional 3* amount using the money line is highly recommended as well - just in case lightning does strike. KC is off a 31-13 beating at San Diego failing to cover as seven point dogs. Their last three games have been struggles to say the least, BUT it has also caused the betting line to become far too high for this contest. KC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more since 1992; 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. Steelers are just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. One of the biggest problems for KC has been the lack of gap integroty on defense. Pittsburgh will have a heavy dose of running plays knowing that KLC will be expecting them. I believe that KC can contain this rushing attack and then force Roethlisberger to make plays through the air. In other words, Steeler offense will be put into having to produce multi-play time consuming drives that will result in more FG than TD. This gives KC the ability to use their powerful running game and gain an advantage in TOP shortening the game to the fourth quarter. Take Kansas City.

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and have an excellent shot at getting a much needed home win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-30 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2006. Play against favorites after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games with the current game taking place in November. Here is a second system that has gone 58-27 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites that are excellent offensive teams averaging >=370 YPG and now facing a poor defense allowing between 335 to 370 YPG and after 8 or more regular season games have been played. Cam Newton is going to have a big game today and the sim shows that they will score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when they have scored within this range of points, the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this season, 8-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 53-13 ATS since 1992. The Denver offense has caught fire scoring better than 30 points in three straight games. Yet, Denver is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. The Carolina offensive line has finally come together and their Week 9 game was by far their best performance as a unit. I strongly believe that they will be able to control the Denver defensive front and protect Newton well allowing him time to go through progressions and hit the correct target in stride. I really how LT Jordan Gross has improved in recent weeks and he will handle the all-important left side and Newton

25* graded play on Texas State as they host Louisiana Tech set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TS will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. LT is having an outstanding season posting an 8-1 record and ranked NO. 20 in the nation. They are coming off an impressive and dominating game defeating UTSA 51-27, but failed to cover installed as 30 point favorites. LT is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. This is just too many points to give a Texas State team that does possess the talent on offense to make this a game. I am not projecting the win, but I do believe it will be far closer than the current line indicates. LT does not have a solid defense and have been able to mask that weakness by scoring a ton of points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. 50% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a terrible defense allowing 6.1 or more yards per play. Texas State has nine returning starters on their defensive unit and they have only gotten better with each passing week of the regular season. LT defense ranks 99th in the nation allowing 34.1 PPG, 115th allowing an average of 498 opponent offensive yards, 92nd, allowing 6.0 yards-per-play, and 79th allowing opponent to convert 38% of opponents third down situations. Take Texas State.

25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Wyoming set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will win this game. NM QB B.R. Holbrook is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, but new Mexico is a extremely dominant running team. NM is also off three straight conference losses, but are 7-0 ATS in home games off three straight losses against conference rivals since 1992. Speaking of running the ball, the sim shows a very high probability that they will gain 300 or more rushing yards. In past games, NM is a 6-2 ATS this season and 17-5 ATS since 1992. The sim shows a strong probability that NM will score 28 or more points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they are 4-1 ATS this season and 54-21 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-14 for 65% winners averaging +172 dog and has made 31 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line with an average offensive team gaining between 330 and 390 YPG and is now facing a team with a terrible defense >=440 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. Here is a second system that has gone 23-9 for 72% winners and has made 24 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +144 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line and is an average offensive team gaining between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and is now facing against a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 YPP and after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. NM is a solid 14-4 against the money line (+11.1 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Stanford in a huge Pac-12 showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by four or fewer points and I strongly believe they will win the game. With that said consider a combination bet placing a 17* amount using the line and an 8* amount on the money line to make the most of this betting opportunity. There is nothing wrong with just playing a full 25* on the line and I mention the combination bet as an option for those who share in my confidence that a major upset will take place in this game. The Oregon State defense is goig to create major problems for the Stanford offense. The matchups favor and confirm the sim projection calling for the Cardinal to gain between 100 and 150 net rushing yards. in past games, where the OSR defense has allowed this range of rushing yards, they are a solid 3-0 ATS this season, 6-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 35-11 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-13 ATS for 77% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and now facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR. This system has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and is 7-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 13-5 ATS since 2006. There has been a bit of a quarterback issue for OSU as starter Sean Mannion has come back from a knee injury and was largely inconsistent in his start against Washington. Backup QB Cody Vaz does not have the pro stature and big-time arm than Mannion has, but he matches up a whole lot better against Stanford

25* graded play on UCONN as they host Pittsburgh in Big East action set to start at 8:00 PM ET Friday, November 9, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will win this lose this game by three or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 73-34 ATS for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home dogs that are poor rushing teams averaging 125 or less rushing yards per game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a very strong money line system that has gone 40-15 for 73% winners averaging a +127 dog play and has made 36 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on a home team using the money line that is a struggling rushing team averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Pitt is a decent offensive unit ranking in the middle of the national rankings in the majority of offensive categories. They rank 66th averaging 5.9 YPP and UCONN is a solid 9-2 against the money line (+10.3 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play since 1992.I really like the UCONN defense in this matchup. They rank 19th in the nation allowing 18.6 PPG, eighth allowing 290 YPG, and seventh allowing an average of 4.2 Yards-per-play on the season. I strongly believe they will dominate the LOS and the Pitt offense will have it

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Colts in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by three or fewer points and I believe they will win the game. Let

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on V-Tech in an ACC showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 17 or more points. FSU is one of the best teams in the nation and the rankings clearly show the mismatch this game provides. FSU ranks 11th in the nation averaging 39.9 PPG and rank 8th allowing 15.0 PPG on the season. By comparison, V-Tech ranks 77th averaging just 25.2 PPG and their defense just 53rd allowing 27 PPG. Moreover, FSU ranks best in the nation averaging 7.3 YPP and seventh averaging 0.552 points-per-play. V-Tech defense ranks 50th allowing 5.3 YPP and 53rd allowing 0.368 points-per-play. Tech ranks 55th averaging 5.5 YPP and 76th averaging 0.351 points-per play. The FSU defense ranks second allowing just 3.2 YPP and 6th allowing 0.212 points-per-play. The sim shows a very high probability that FSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, Tech is 0-4 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-44 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points in a game. Moreover, Tech is a miserable 0-5 ATS the past three seasons and 1-1 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 41 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-8 ATS for 81% winners since 2006. This system has produced a 5-1 ATS mark this season. Play on a road team off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team sporting a win percentage of >=80% and now playing a team with a losing record. 53% of the plays made since 2006 have covered the spread by seven or more points. I strongly believe this will be a 20 point game and perhaps more. Take the Seminoles.

25* graded play on Ball State as they take on Toledo in a MAC Conference showdown. The simulator shows a high probability that Ball State will lose this game by six or fewer points. Toledo gained the 23rd ranking in the AP Top-25 poll this week and marks the first time they have achieved this lofty status in more than 10 seasons. With the ranking also comes the bullseye for opponents to want to defeat them just a bit more. This is has been a very strong conference that has certainly been flying under the national media radar. They have four teams ranked in the Top-32 and this matches the Big Ten conference at this point. Toledo has won eight straight games, but has played a weaker schedule than Ball State to date. In big games, it is an added benefit to be on the team that has had that tougher schedule and the

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by three or fewer points and I completely believe that they will win the game. Consider an optional alternative bet, placing an 19* unit play on the line and a 6* play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% ATS winners since 2006. Play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games with the game taking place in November. HC Garrett is a solid 10-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Dallas and a near-perfect 6-1 against the money line (+8.8 Units) in November games. The biggest Dallas problem has been what i call unforced penalties. There are holding penalties that are many times good ones that keep the QB upright and uninjured, but then there are the mental false starts and dead ball fouls. Dallas is a very good team when they clean up their mental mistakes and I believe Garrett will have his team ready to win tonight in a near must-win situation. Dallas has twice as many penalties on the season than the Falcons, but that will be a much different story line tonight. Even though Murray will not be playing for Dallas, the ground attack should be running on all cylinders tonight. The Falcons run defense ranks second-to-last in the NFL allowing more than five yards per carry. Moreover, Atlanta could be without their best defensive player in Weatherspoon making the ground attack scheme even more difficult for the Falcons to stop. Dallas will control the tempo and chew up big chunks of clock. The bigger the margin advantage they have in TOP, the bigger the margin of victory for the Cowboys.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Detroit set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning this game. Detroit

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in the Bayou set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that LSU will lose this game by eight or fewer points and I believe the evidence suggests that LSU can win this game. One factor is that LSU has had a week off to get healed and fully rested. Alabama is coming off another huge win, but QB McCarron was

25* graded play on Indiana as they take on Iowa in Big Ten action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by four or more points. Simply, Iowa is one of the worst offensive teams and Indiana is a strong offensive unit. Iowa ranks 103rd in the nation averaging just 19.4 PPG, 112th averaging 311.4 YPP, and 68th scoring on 80% of their red zone opportunities. By contrast, Indiana ranks 23rd in the nation averaging 35.7 PPG, 35th averaging 441 YPP, and fifth scoring on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The sim shows a very high probability that Indiana will score more than 28 points in this game. In past games where Iowa gave up 28 or more points they are 0-3 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 16-51 ATS since 1992. The sim also shows that Indiana will have a solid defensive effort allowing Iowa to gain between 4.5 and 5.0 YPP. In past games, Indiana is a solid 16-3 ATS when allowing 4.5 to 5.0 YPP since 1992. Take the Hoosiers.

25* graded play on TCU as they take to the road to face West Virginia set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will cover this spread and more than likely win the game. West Virginia

25* graded play on Missouri as they take on the Florida Gators set to start at Noon, Saturday , November 3, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Florida is coming off a horrific loss and have all, but lost any chance at a National BCS berth. This type of loss is nearly impossible for young athletes to overcome, no matter the elite qualities of the coaching staff. Making matters worse is that the Gator players know they are

25* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 1. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by 10 or more points. This is about the time of the regular season, where head coach Norv Turner is on the hot seat and fans are calling for his head. It is also the time, that SD has had a tradition of responding with solid winning streaks. They have the right opponent tonight in Kansas City, the worst team in the AFC and perhaps the NFL to get the winning ways started up. Many of you know, I like looking at the Yards-per-point ratios for NFL and College teams. These offensive and defensive ratios provide a solid measuring tool that reveals how well an offensive or defensive unit is playing. On the offensive end, a team wants as a low a number as possible that reflects a high efficiency offensive unit. On the defensive end the goal is to attain a higher number forcing opponent to gain more yards to get an average of one point on the scoreboard. SD ranks 13th in the NFL posting a 14.6 offensive yards per point ratio. Teams that post offensive YPP ratios beleen 14 are exception offensive units. Houston ranks best posting a 12.0 YPP ratio by way of comparison. KC is dead last in the NFL ranking 32nd and posting an anemic 21.4 YPP ratio. Numbers that range between 14 and 18 are considered average units while numbers above 18 are sputter and largely inconsistent units. So, you can see that SD has a big and meaningful advantage on offense. Further, looking at the defensive YPP ratios shows that KC, again, ranks dead last posting an 11.7 YPP ratio. SD ranks 14th in the NFL posting a decent 15.9 defensive YPP ratio. I strongly believe that this clearly reveals how much better SD is than KC. Adding to this is the Chargers recent slide, but as you can see, SD is borderline on both offense and defense to reaching the elite level for these respective ratios. I fully expect this game to be won by 20 or more points by the Chargers.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Green Bay set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-14 ATS for 75% winners since 2006. Play on home favorites that are a marginal winning team posting a 51% to 60% win percentage and now playing a losing team. Here is a second system that has gone 165-101 ATS since 2002. Play on road underdogs or pick off a road loss. JAX is off a tough fought 26-23 loss at Oakland, but covered as six point dogs. Jordy Nelson is banged up nursing a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for this game. Green Bay may not even play him knowing that all they need to do is win the game and that there are far greater and more important games for Nelson to be healthy for. Jacksonville is not without their injuries as well. They will not have Maurice Jones-Drew for this game and is the dominant reason that this line has been inflated to where it is right now. However, Gabbert is upgraded and will play. Rodgers is dinged as well and I strongly believe the offensive scheme will be to keep him upright and away from harms way. This already limits the offensive attack for the Packers and they will play a

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-36 ATS for 66% since 2006. Play on road underdogs or pick with a struggling scoring defense allowing 27 or more points/game. I strongly believe that the Steelers, who are just 3-3 on the season, will elect to attack the Redskin secondary and essentially make themselves a one-dimensional attack. This works into the strengths of the Redskins. Moreover, the sim shows that the Steelers will throw for more than 300 net passing yards. In past games where they have gone over this passing benchmark, they are just 9-28 ATS since 1992 and 0-2 ATS already this season. The steelers are banged up significantly on the defensive side of the ball. They did dominate the Bengals in Week 7, but it was in large part because the Bengals became too predictable. The Redskins offensive scheme is anything, but predictable and OC Shanahan will have a complete arsenal of plays including an array of read-option types for RG3. Although a rookie, he has matured into a game winning type of quarterback as evident by his 4th quarter scoring drive last week against the Giants. He has gained the trust and respect of his teammates and it is making the entire team play better football each week. Griffin has been extremely accurate as he leads the league with a 70.4 completion percentage. He is a natural playmaker out of the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete who challenges defensive coordinators to make subtle changes when game-planning for the Redskins. Steelers love to bring pressure, but in this matchup with a very elusive quarterback, they cannot play that type of game. If they bring pressure, and don

30* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on No. 1 Alabama set to start at 8:30 PM ET Saturday. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi State will make this a very close game and I fully expect this to be a game that

25* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on TCU set to start at 3:30 PM ET.. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma State will win this game by 10 or more points. My work shows that there is minimal chance that the TCU defensive unit can keep Oklahoma State to fewer than 28 points. In past games when TCU has allowed more than 28 points they are 0-2 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-51 ATS since 1992. Fine tuning this scoring to range between 35 and 41 points, TCU is 0-1 ATS this season, 1-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 3-20 ATS since 1992. When the Cowboys have scored 28 or more points they are 21-9 ATS over the past three seasons. Cowboys offense ranks seventh in the nation averaging 351 passing yards per game, eighth averaging 254.3 rushing yards per game, and fourth averaging 45.7 points per game. Their defense ranks 54th allowing 24.7 PPG. They are vastly better unit than this stat reflects knowing the SOS they have played and also that they are on the field quite a bit given the prolific scoring of their offensive teammates. TCU has scored 20 points or more in 33 straight games, which leads the nation, but I strongly believe that streak ends today. Take the Cowboys.

30* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Louisville set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Friday, October 26, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bearcats can win this game. Consider an option combination bet using the Bearcats on the line for an 18* amount and then use a 7* amoun playing the Bearcats using the money line. Let

30* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Tampa Bay Bucs set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game by nine or more points. Sim shows that the Vikings will have a minimum of 125 rushing yards in this game. When they have achieved this level of success in past games, they are 2-0 ATS this season and 10-4 ATS the past three seasons and 61-31 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick with a poor defense allowing 5.4 or more yards per play and after gaining 450 or more total yards per game over their last two games. 24 of the winning plays based on this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. Peterson is running ball ay a very high level and rarely is being stopped on first contact. His leverage at point of attack is perfection in motion and even the best linebackers in the league have difficulty getting good tackling angles on him. The majority of his yards gained in last week

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take to the road to the

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Oakland Raiders set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by six or fewer points. Since the change to the current NFL divisional format in 2002, there have been no more than seven teams with 3-3 records through six weeks of play. For nearly two decades the NFl commissioner

15* graded play on Indianapolis as they take on the Cleveland Browns set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Indy will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win by 10 or more as a home dog after the first month (four weeks) of the season. This system has not lost since 2007 posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark and is 14-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Colts were gashed for 161 rushing yards by Shonn Greene in Week 6 and you can bet the Browns, who are already run dependent will have Richardson involved with many plays. Problem is he has bruised ribs and believe it only takes one glancing shot to have him in significant pain and possibly out of the game. I am not saying the Colts defense will target that area. On any hit, even a routine tackle in the leg area and radiate up to the rubs. Colts DC, Manusky, will have a safety at the LOS from the first play of the game and will bring gap pressure from the strong side of the of the Browns offensive formation. This reduces the areas to which Richardson or any running back can maneuver. Take the Colts.

15* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent shot at upending the Packers today. St. Louis is one of eleven teams at 3-3 in the 32-team NFL and have covered five of six of their games. The eleven teams marks a record for NFL parity dating back to the current divisional format. St. Louis is a team that with a few breaks going their way can continue to contend as a wildcard type of team deep into the remainder of the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2002. It is also 2-0 ATS this season, 11-2 ATS over the past three seasons, and 17-3 ATS over the past five seasons. The Packers had a huge win last week against Houston, but they are banged up on both sides of the ball. Rogers is dinged, but will play. WR Jennings is OUT with a severe groin injury. Moreover, their defensive front is really hurting and the Rams have a strong power running game led by Jackson and rookie Daryl Richardson. Strong running game allows the Rams to chew up the clock and keep the ball from the Packers. It also sets up excellent high percentage pass plays off play action and in man coverage situations. Take the Rams.

15* graded play on Tennessee as they host Alabama in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 19 or fewer points. This is actually a game that has the potential to go down to the wire. In each of the past six season I have at least one 20 point dog win the game outright or lose in overtime to unsuspecting favorites. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-6 ATS for 85% winners since 2002. Play against any team with an incredible defense allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. Of the 41 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 23 of them or 55% covered the spread by seven or more points. I also believe with the sim

15* graded play on Michigan as they take on Michigan State set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. MSU is 9-21 ATS when facing good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 6-16 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards per carry since 1992; 2-13 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games since 1992. last week

15* graded play on Central Michigan as they host Ball State set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Central Michigan will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. CM is coming off a poor offensive showing losing 31-13 to Navy where they were installed as a 1 point favorite. However, they are a resounding 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992. The sim projects that CM will score 28 or more points and in past games where they have achieved this measure of offensive success they have posted a 44-17 ATS mark since 1992. Supporting the cover and upset projections is a money line system that has gone 50-21 for 70% winners and has made 35 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on a home team using the money line off a home loss by 14 or more points in weeks 5 through 9. Take Central Michigan.

30* graded play on California as they host Stanford set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will win this game. Stanford is coming a tough road loss in overtime at Notre Dame and this hangover will be a major factor they lose this game too. It is nearly impossible for coaching staffs to get their team to be resilient enough to bounce back after an overtime loss at the high school and collegiate levels of football. This is the 155th edition of the Big Game and the Stanford Axe is awarded to the winning team. Don

15* graded play on Arizona State as they host oregon in a big Pac-12 showdown on Thursday Night Football set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASu will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has an excellent opportunity upset the Ducks. Consider splitting this 15* amount into two parts with a 4* amount using the money line and a 11* amount getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-19 for 61% winners and has made a whopping 36 units per one unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged a +190 dog play and underscores that ASu has a great chance to win the game. Play against a road team using the money line off a home blowout win by 28 points or more and when playing on a Thursday. Th day of the week is extremely important as it changes the length of time teams have to prepare and this clearly favors the ASU defensive front. Here is a second ML system that has gone 43-11 for 80% winners making 35 units per one unit wagered since 2002. - Play on a home team using the money line after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games and in a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning. I strongly believe that the ASU has the athleticism, speed, and gap discipline to contain and disrupt the flow of the Ducks offensive juggernaut. ASu is the better defense by 116 yards per game in lined games and Oregon has yet to face a defensive front like ASU. WLB Brandon MaGee and Spur LB Chris Young can gain penetration and make the pair of RB (Barner and Thomas) and QB Marcus Mariota, make their first cut behind the line of scrimmage. The formation that Oregon has used to torch defenses has been with Mariota in the gun and flanked by the pair of running backs. This base formation then is executed with a myriad of fakes, misdirections, zone reads, and option runs. However, I do believe that ASU has what it takes to win the battle at the LOS against an offensive line that sometimes is bailed out of mistakes by the elite track speed of their running backs. Take the Sun Devils.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks set to start at 8:20 PM ET. It is incredible to note that the parity in the NFl has reached new levels of equilibrium never before seen in any NFL season prior. Since the NFL moved to it

25* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Denver Broncos in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-6 ATS for 80% winners since 2006. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game and after a loss by 10 or more points. This system has gone 16-3 ATS over the past three seasons. San Diego has adjusted their once-vertical pass routes and have gone to a more underneath passing scheme. They also now have running back Ryan Mathews back and he is also a threat out of the backfield. Defenses have taken away the deep seem routes that Rivers had been throwing the past several seasons. In a sure sign of maturity and leadership he is now focused on executing passes underneath zone coverages - what the defense is giving and it is working very well. The sim shows a high probability that SD will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, where they have achieved this level of rushing excellence they are 6-0 ATS the past three seasons and 31-9 ATS since 1992. Take the Chargers.

30* graded play UNDER Houston-Green Bay set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday Night Football. I also have a 15* play on Houston so consider making a 10* parlay with Houston and the UNDER. I do not like teasers at all, but for those, who do, the combination of teasing Houston to a dog status and adding points to the total is very attractive. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will be scored in this game. Simply, both teams must shorten the game and keep the opponents

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by seven or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-19 ATS for 69% winners since 2006. Play on road underdogs or pick with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game on the season. Turnovers and differential tend to even out over the course of an NFL season. This system implies that Oakland will force more than 1 turnover and the sim shows a high probability that they will get 2 or more forced turnovers recorded in this game. In past games, Oakland is 8-2 ATS when they have had two forced turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Oakland will be able to run the ball against a highly suspect Falcons defensive unit. The Falcons rank 31st allowing 5.4 rushing yards per game and 28th allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game. Moreover, they rank 28th allowing an average of 8.2 rushing first downs per game. This fact, alone shows that the Raiders running game will be able to move the chains and sustain drives and eat of the clock to shorten the game. I realize that the Raiders have not been strong running the ball to date, but against this Flacons unit I expect them to have a huge day. With a strong running game Carson Palmer, who has great field vision when given time, can execute high percentage pass routes over the middle of the field in man coverage. Falcons will use seven and eight men in the box, so pass plays

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Mississippi State set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game so getting the three points is an added bonus for sure. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-4 ATS for 86% winners since 2006. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS spanning the last three seasons. Mississippi State is a perfect 5-0, but their SOS is one of the poorest in the nation. They have played Jackson State, Auburn, At Troy, South Alabama, and at Kentucky. By comparison, Tennessee has been seasoned by some of the best programs in the country in playing NC State, Georgia State, Florida, Akron, and at Georgia. With a 3-2 record, Tennessee knows that is a critical and pivotal game for their season. Win and they are two games from being bowl eligible. A loss puts them in need of three wins against on eof the following teams on the remainder of the schedule: Middle Tenn State, at Alabama, Texas A&M, at LSU, Arkansas, at Ole Mississippi. So, I am certain the coaches have made the team fully aware that a win is a must in this game. Tennessee has a strong offense averaging 39.4 PPG, 23.4 PPG in the first half, and 507 total YPG. By comparison, State has averaged 34.2 PPG, 21.0 points in the first half, 401 total offensive YPG. Now, when you factor in that the SOS of Tennessee has been monumentally stronger that what State has faced you can easily see that Tennessee should roll to a double digit win. Volunteer head coach Dooley is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Tennessee Volunteers.

30* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Miami (FL) set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by 10 or more points. The Miami defense has been destroyed by opponents this season and I expect the Tar Heels to do the same thing even though this game is in Miami. Tar Heels rank a solid 32nd in the nation averaging 286.3 passing yards per game and 31st gaining an average of 200.3 rushing yards per game. This balanced attacked ranks ninth in scoring at 44.0 PPG. They are also strong on the defensive side of the ball ranking 27th in the nation allowing 17.8 PPG. By comparison, the Miami offense is a pass dominated one. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 307.2 PPG and 90th averaging 134.2 rushing yards per game, and 55th averaging 30.2 PPG. The passing rank is a bit skewed as well, given that quarterback Stephen Morris threw for 566 yards against NC State and 436 yards at Georgia Tech. His other four games he has passed in a range of just 201 to 215 passing yards. Defensively, Miami is horrid, ranking 110th in the nation allowing 39.6 PPG, 122nd allowing 542 yards per game, and 121st allowing 6.9 yards per play. No doubt UNC will have great success against this defense. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 59-30 ATS for 66% winners since 2006. Play on any team that is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games; 43 of the 59 wins covered the spread by seven or more points. Sim also shows a detailed projection that UNC will score between 35 and 41 points and will gain 500 or more total offensive yards. In past games where UNC has scored 35 to 41 points they are 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 18-3 ATS since 1992. In games where they gained more than 500 yards they 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons and when scoring 28 or more points are 12-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Take the Tar Heels.

25* graded play on Colorado as they take on Arizona State set to start at 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 11, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. This is a situation where we have one team that has produced a 4-1 record and is 4-0-1 ATS going up against a

15* graded play on the Jets as they take on the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on monday night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will show up and at least cover the game. Honestly, I have been struggling with this release all day and is one of the main reasons I have released late afternoon. You never know what else could come out Jets headquarters that is negative. However, there are some very strong reasons to back them tonight and if I emphasize one thing it is to follow discipline with my plays as they are represented by the neural net simulator. It has worked for 18-years and this is just one play and one play win or lose does not have a dramatic impact on the success of the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 76-36 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick is an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG and after scoring 14 points or less last game. Fine tuning this a tad to reflect these teams getting blown out by 14 or more points produces a strong 33-10 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1983. The interesting thing about head coaches in the NFl is they tend to play a bit more conservatively when on the road against a vastly inferior opponent. Kubiak is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more PPG. Jets have been resilient when playing at home off a home loss posting a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a home loss since 1992. After the butt kicking beat down they took last week to the 49ers, Rex Ryan and his team MUST play well in the national limelight and not have any sideline antics. If they do, they will be the laughing stock of the NFL for the remainder of the season. The sim projections and grading is what truly matters and my opinions matter far less. It all adds up to what many will be saying tomorrow is a huge upset win for the Jets. I would suggest splitting the wager into two parts with the first a 10* getting the points and the second a 5* graded play using the Money Line.

15* graded play on the Washington Huskies as they take on the Oregon Ducks set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 21 points. Where I really like this game is that Washington will be able to establish the ground attack. Washington runs a mostly balanced offensive scheme. Once they get the ground game going and force the Oregon safeties to move closer to the line of scrimmage, then play action will be open with man coverage on the perimeter and the middle of the field open to the tight end. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-16 for 72% winners since 2006. Play on a road team after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points and now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. The Washington offense has posted a strong 13.5 yards per point ratio reflecting that the offense is working well and they able to establish scoring drives. They will be playing on turf and Washington has posted a 11.9 yards per point offensive ratio. They have been able to control the clock having the ball 31:25 minutes per game and I think they will exceed 33:00 minutes in this game. The greater the disparity in time of possession favoring Washington, the greater the probability that this game could get very close in the fourth quarter. Take the Huskies.

30* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the LSU Tigers set to start at 3:30 in the Swamp. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-12 for 74% winners since 2006. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is an average passing team gaining between 175-230 passing yards per game and now facing an average passing defense allowing 175 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The Gators have been forcing turnovers and this is a significant reason they are 4-0. Moreover, this strong defensive and special teams play has carried over to the next game. Gators are a solid 10-2 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. LSU is going to have trouble attacking the Florida defense through the air. The sim shows a high probability that LSU will not gain more than 200 net passing yards in this game. LSU is just 16-34 ATS since 1992 when they have not exceeded the 200 yards net passing yards mark. J.C. Copeland is listed as probable for this game with a leg injury. he is a great lead blocker for the LSU running game, but he is not at a 100% and he has not competed against the speed and athleticism of the Florida defense. Moreover, I saw this unit bring all sorts of different stunts, straight blitzes, and zone blitzes against Tennessee and it had a big impact on their quarter Tyler Bray. he is a much more seasoned QB than LSU

25* graded play on Eastern Michigan as they take on Kent State in a MAC Conference Game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that EMU will lose this game by three or fewer points and will more than likely win this game outright. Consider a combination bet placing a 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount using the money line. The sim alsp shows that the EMU defense will play well and hold Kent State to 21 or fewer points. In past games where they have held an opponent to 15 to 21 points they have gone 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 13-4 ATS since 1992. Kent State is just 0-3 ATS the past three seasons and 6-17 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 15 and 21 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 84-43 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on any team that is a struggling offensive team gaining <=280 YPG) and is now facing a team with a poor defense allowing 390 to 440 YPG and after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This system has produced a 6-1 ATS record for 86% ATS winners. Here is a money line system that is truly remarkable and has produced a 25-13 record for 66% winners since 1992 and has made 31 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a most impressive +175 dog play. Play against a road team using the money line that is an offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and is now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=440 YPG and after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan.