50* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round of the 2016 NFL playoffs set to start at 1:05 PM ET, Sunday January 17. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. I always require a +145 reading from the money line to validate these combination wagers. It is very unlikely that we will see a surge of volume type wagers on Carolina that could push this line back to ‘3’. So, simply play it as a straight 35* wager using the line only. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. There are other game situations, but I want the focus of this report squarely on the Seattle defense. It is a fact that Carolina ranks first in scoring offense in the NFL and 2nd in rushing yards per game. However, the Seattle defense ranks first or second in the majority of defensive categories in both rush and pass stats. They rank first in scoring defense, rushing yards per game allowed, and 2nd in passing yards allowed. Seattle LB Wagner and Wright are playing at a very high level as are DBs Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman, and Shead. Sherman may bot even be their best corner right now and that certainly is an amazing situation. I do see Cam extending plays, but Seattle has the ability to minimize separation and still defend well. Then there is lure of Pete Carroll. Whether you like him or not he is arguably the Belichick of the West and he always uses an extremely creative game plan that focuses on taking away the strengths of the opponent. I’m not saying that Carolina and Newton will be eliminated by the defense, but they will struggle to move the chains, especially on third down situations where Seattle can bring their full maximum strength in either hidden zone blitz schemes or nickel coverages in either a sky zone spy or under-man cover 2 scheme. Take Seattle.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs set to start at 4:30 PM ET January 16, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 7 points. Over this past season there has been a significant growth in alternative line betting. Many of you are quite familiar with my combination wager that uses line and money line for DOG releases. In this case you need access to the adjusted lines, which would show Patriots -13 1/2 +240 and KC +13 1/2 -320. The other adjusted line will show NE +3 1/2 -340 and KC -3 1/2 at + 260. With my work, you will ALWAYS be on the dog payouts. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the -13 1/2 Patriots +240 line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-15 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=370 YPG and are now facing an average offensive team gaining between 295 to 335 YPG, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Looking at some power trends notes that Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last three seasons. Patriots are also coming off a very weak performance in their season finale. However, they are resilient posting a 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Belichick also has a great track record noting a 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game. Now, let’s take a look at some money line situations. If you want to play this game as a straight money line play, I have no problem with that. I would suggest making the exposure the same as a 35* line play. So, if the Patriots are -250, then you would wager a 14* play. Should you lose, then the loss would be 35* amount (14*2.5 odds). So, KC is a money losing 3-22 against the money line (-22.0 Units) in road games facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992; Patriots are a near-perfect 15-1 against the money line (+14.3 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. KC ranks 4th best in the NFL gaining 4.6 YPR, 6th gaining 129 rushing yards per game, and 3rd with 1.2 rushing TD’s per game. However, I strongly believe that the Patriots defense will minimize this ground attack and force KC to try and move the chains through the air. KC ranks 30th in the NFL gaining just 202 passing yards per game. Belichick has always been a master at taking away the strength of the opponent and this is the matchup he will be fully focused on. Patriots with rest and Brady under center will be just too much fort KC to contain for 60 minutes. Take the Patriots.

50* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the NCAA Nationals Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the Championship. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-29 mark good for 53% winners, BUT has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +211 DOG play since 2010. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (CLEMSON) in a game involving two good rushing teams with both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a near-perfect 7-1 against the money line (+6.4 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 season; 26-9 against the money line (+22.7 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. I have studied the matchups in this game just like any other release I have done in my 21 years. This one is clear and straight forward. I do not believe that Alabama will be able to contain the ultimate two-dimensional offensive threat in Watson. I think he will play one of his best games ever tonight and lead the Tigers to the Championship. Take Clemson.

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the KC Chiefs in the AFC Divisional playoff set to start at 4:35 PM ET. If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Texans. As a result, in any given season better than 80% of graded plays are DOGS in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB. I have proven time and time again, that it is imperative to identify DOGS in these sports that win consistently over the course of a season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, the ML must be at +145 for the combination wager to be validated. If the ML is below +145, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 mark using the money line for 79% winners. Play against road teams using the money line (KANSAS CITY) good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PY/Attempt and is now facing  an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 PY/Attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Take the Texans.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the NY jets in a very important game with direct consequences for the NY Jets playoff aspirations. This game is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Buffalo Bills will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 263-104 record for 71% winners and has made 100.6 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams vs. the money line (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt; 52-29 against the money line (+20.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Jets are a money losing 9-20 against the money line (-17.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here is an ATS system that has gone 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. Take the Buffalo Bills.

35* graded play on JAX as they take on Houston in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-21 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 2-11 against the money line (-14.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-11 against the money line (-15.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Jacksonville and expect the upset win.

35* graded play on K-State as they take on Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at an upset win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. There has been a significant growth in ‘adjusted lines’ this season. These lines are adjust by 7 ½ points and then include a comparable ‘vig’ for each line. I have found that using the DOG lines with these 35* releases has added significantly to the overall ROI. So, you may see a K-State +4 ½ line at about +230 vig. If you have access to that, then substitute the money line portion of the combination wager with the adjusted line. So, that adjusted line combo wager would be a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-29 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1992. Play against any team (ARKANSAS) average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. K-State is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Georgia in the Gator Bowl set to start at Noon ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU HC Franklin is 4-0 against the money line (+9.1 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached. The Georgia coaching staff is in complete disarray with the firing of HC Richt after 14 seasons and 147 wins and the fall out from that decision. So, this Georgia team lacks leadership and I do belevie it will be a factor in this game. PSU struggled big on offense this season, but has a possible first round pick in QB Hackenberg. The PSU defense is one of the most under rated units in the nation. They will get pressure on any Georgia QB in this game. Georgia has had massive trouble at QB this season and is most evident when pressured. Penn State is the play.

35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 10 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa has had a great season and definitely exceeded even the most optimistic goals. However, Stanford is one of the best teams in the nation and will have significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Iowa is just 18-59 ATS (-46.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-35 ATS (-30.5 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt; Stanford is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 34-11 ATS (+21.9 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Further, Stanford played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation while Iowa played a relatively soft Big Ten schedule avoiding Michigan and Ohio State. Stanford had the 12th toughest SOS. Oklahoma had the toughest while Iowa ranks 45th. Take Stanford to roll big.

50* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 39* play using the line and a 11* play using the money line. There has been an advent of the ‘adjusted lines’ this football season. These lines adjust the spread by 7 ½ points in both directions and matches the corresponding ‘vig’ to those lines. You will see a line most likely showing Florida at – 3 ½ and +230 for the adjusted spread. On the other side you will see Florida +10 ½ and -200ish. ALWAYS go with the DOG vig with my plays. In the majority of our wins, the cover is by double digits, which also brig the adjust spread wager as a winner too. So, a suggestion is to wager a 35* play on the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then 6* play on the adjusted -3 ½ Florida spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards. Further technical setups show that Florida is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Michigan has been a money losing 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take Florida.

35* graded play on Alabama as they take on Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be at Jerry’s House or by the proper name Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by more than 16 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these FAVS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the – 17 ½ +220ish adjusted line. If you don’t have access to the adjusted lines, then simply make a 35* play using the line. Alabama’s defense will be the difference in this game. They have been one of the best defensive units in the past decade and don’t see MSU being able to get enough out of their ground attack to compete for the entire game. Alabama defense ranks first in the nation in rushing defense and have not allowed any opponent to gain more than 91 yards (Auburn) over the past five games. Plus, their ground attack has peaked and is just unstoppable – even by a solid MSU defensive unit. The ‘Bama ground attack has gained more than 195 yards rushing in five straight games. The 195 stat was against Charleston Southern where they only rushed the ball 35 times in a 56-6 mercy rule game. Factor out that game and the ground attack has gained at least 235 yards. Moreover, they have turned the ball over just 3 times in the past five games and have not had more than 1 turnover in any of the last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is just 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; ‘Bama is 102-51 ATS (+45.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. Take Alabama.

35* graded play on Florida State as they take on Houston in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at Noon on New Year’s Eve. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these favorites combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted line that will show FSU at -14 ½ +230ish at most books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-14 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. FSU 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Houston has had a great season, but their SOS has been vastly weaker than that faced by FSU. I also don’t see FSU taking Houston lightly either as head coach Fisher and his staff are great motivators and will have their units fully prepared. Take FSU.

35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by at least 7 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This season has seen an explosive growth in the adjusted lines offered at nearly every book in Vegas. This give us the opportunity to gain greater returns using the dog lines provided. So, we will always go in the direction of a more difficult cover. So, for example, you will see Auburn at +3 1/2 and -10 ½ with vigs of -200 and +230 respectively. We will always go with the dog vig as it offers a much better long-term ROI than trying to benefit from the favored laying wood vig. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted spread. If one is not available then simply wager a 35* play using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game. Memphis HC Dickey is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached. Memphis last played a month ago on November 28 and destroyed SMU 63-0 and easily covered as 19 ½ point favorites. Auburn plays a vastly more difficult schedule than Memphis and is a seasoned experienced team. They are coming off a disappointing season where early on they were ranked as high as No. 4 in the pools. So, I believe the team will look to play very hard and send off the Seniors with a big win in their last game. Take Auburn.

35* graded play on California as they take on Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET, December 29, 2015. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cal will win this game by more than 10 points. Cal started the season with 17 returning starts with 8 on offense and 9 on defense. They also have had their QB return and these units are both very experienced and have great team chemistry. The featured player in this game though will be Cal’s Goff, who is playing his final collegiate game. He is projected by many experts to be the first QB taken in the upcoming April NFL draft and for very good reasons. This was another outstanding season for Goff, who broke his own school records for passing yards (4,252) and TD passes (37), and closed the regular season with a school-record 542 yards and five scores in a 48-46 win over Arizona State. He became only the ninth Pac-12 quarterback to throw for 4,000 or more yards in a season. Many of the records he broke at Cal were previously held by Aaron Rodgers. He still has one year of eligibility left, but the NFL is the right move. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AF is just 35-80 ATS (-53.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 10-37 ATS (-30.7 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Cal is a solid 37-12 ATS (+23.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. Further, we note that AF is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.CAL ranks fifth in pass completion percentage and 6th gaining 359 passing yards per game. AF just does not have the defensive depth to contain this high powered and very fast offense. Take Cal.

35* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI and risk-reward profile to be validated, you must get at least +145 on the money line. I am seeing +160 and even +167 currently, which is higher than you would normally see with a +3/+3 ½ line. This reflects the publics’ excessive backing of the Broncos, which also supports this play on the Bengals. I monitor the betting flows at seven major books and whenever you get a consensus above 70%, it produces a red flag reflecting irrational exuberance for that team. This fact only serves to reinforce the algorithm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark good for 73% winners and has made 26.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) off a road win, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bengals are a solid 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards this season. Denver has been a weak 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Lewis is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of Cincinnati.

35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) average passing team gaining between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that Green Bay is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) facing good rushing defenses allowing

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM EWT. I also have a 25* play on the ‘OVER’ in this game. So, play that for a 25* amount and also add a 5* play using the Falcons on the Money Line and the ‘over’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Panthers and ruining their perfect season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Falcons are a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

35* graded play on Duke as they take on Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl being played at Yankee Stadium and set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Duke will win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line anda 7* play using the money line. However, you must get a minimum of +140 on the money line to validate the risk/reward profile for this projection. If it is less than +140, simply make a 35* wager using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indiana is just 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt; 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 10-48 ATS (-42.8 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Duke is a strong 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Take Duke.

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Middle Tennessee State in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-27 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now fcacing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MTST is just 31-61 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; WMU is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. In summary, I don’t see the MTST secondary being able to hold up against the constant pressure of the WMU balanced attack. WMU has a strong ground game and this will open up play action in man coverage where the WMU receivers are physically superior. Further, the WMU OL will wear down a smaller sized MTST defensive front. Take Western Michigan.

35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 10-4 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; BG is just 5-17 against the money line (-16.0 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards; 2-9 against the money line (-11.9 Units) when facing an excellent rushing teams averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry. Further, BG has been a money burning 3-9 against the money line (-22.0 Units) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers since 1992. Fritz is 8-1 against the money line (+7.0 Units) facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. as the coach of GSU.

35* graded play on Akron as they take on Utah State on the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the bowl game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-32 ATS mark good for 68.3% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) with an excellent rushing defens allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is just 1-8 against the money line (-7.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, Utah State has been a weak 14-37 against the money line (-26.4 Units) in non-conference games. Take Akron.

35* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI to be validated for the added money risk, a line of +145 must be available. If it is not, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) off a road loss, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.  Saints are just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Saints have arguably the worst defense in the league. Detroit has an average offense, BUT ranks best in the NFL with 69% red zone scoring. Taske the Lions.

50* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 7 or more points. There has been  an increase of adjusted lines this season in the NFL and NCAA football cards. In past years, we would see adjusted lines for playoff games and some of the top bowl games, but never on a weekly basis. So, if you can get an adjusted line then consider making a 40* play using the line and then add a 10* play using the -10 ½ line for a greater ROI on this wager. Your adjusted line may not be – 10 ½ and could be lined at -11 1/2  and will give you at least +225 return. This is by far the best team the Eagles have faced this season. They rank 2nd in scoring offense and best in the NFL gaining 418 YPG. Moreover, the Eagles defense has been lit up over the past 5 weeks and for the season rank 27th allowing 386 YPG. ARZ passing game among the best in the NFL ranking third gaining 299 PYPG and first averaging 8.5 yards per pass. Eagles defense ranks 24th allowing 259 passing yards. I just do not see how the Eagles will hold up against this offense. They key stat is Arizona’s best ranking in yards per pass, which shows they can successfully stretch a defense vertically. This is by far the greatest weakness in the Eagles defensive secondary. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards. Eagles are a weak 3-20 ATS (-19.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Arizona Cardinals.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. This combination of wagers serves to maximize the ROI of this investment on the Raiders given the probabilities the lines present and also what the SIM projects to occur. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) that are average defensive teams allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and now facing a below average defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. Here is a second system that has gone 67-36 ATS for 65% winners since 2005. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Del Rio is 11-4 against the money line (+12.5 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached. Take the Raiders.

35* graded play on BYU as they take on Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, make certain that you get at least +145 on the ML as it that price validates the added risk with the combination wager and maximizes the ROI. If the ML is not at +145 and higher, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-36 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 1992. Paly on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BYU) and is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG, after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mendenhall is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BYU. Needless to say Utah has a strong ground attack, but BYU will contain them to less than 200 rushing yards. BYU will then put Utah into third and long passing downs. The more of these situations the greater the probability that BYU wins the game. Also, BYU has a huge edge in the passing game and I see Utah struggling to consistently defend the middle of the field. Take BYU.

35* graded play on Arizona as they take on New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71.4% winners since 1992. Play against home underdogs (NEW MEXICO) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points; 27-4 ATS (+22.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards; NMU is just 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41points in a game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 total yards per play. Take Arizona.

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 4: 25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. Play on road teams (DALLAS) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a very weak 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Take Dallas.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and have a great sot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-2 ATS mark good for 93% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I absolutely love this algorithmic defined play. Atlanta actually gains more yards per game on offense than Carolina, but they fail to score points consistently during this losing streak. Falcons rank 5th in yards per game (387), but just 18th in points per play (0.341). Carolina ranks 14th in offense (361) and second in PPP (0.461). Falcons rank 2nd best in the NFL converting 46% of all third down conversions. Take the Falcons.

35* graded play on the Rams as they take on the Lions in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-6 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is a solid 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards since 1992. Rams offense has struggled to score points this season ranking 31st in scoring , 31st in points per play, and league worst 32nd in third-down conversions. However, they are facing a vast weak Detroit defense that ranks 28th in scoring defense, 28th in points per play allowed, and 25th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Take the Rams.

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in AFC action action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a small probability that they can win the game in a shocking upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-8 mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (SEATTLE) an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Fully aware of the QB situation in Baltimore, BUT I do believe in the projections from the SIm and believe that Baltimore will play a fantastic game on both sides of the ball. Plus, the public is all over the Seattle Seahawks, which is a significant positive for us being on the book side. Take Baltimore.

35* graded play on Arizona as they take on Minnesota in a critical NFC matchup set to start at 8:25 PM ET and will be televised by the NFL network. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these opportunities combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. This season there has been a surge of offerings featuring the adjusted spreads moving the line 7 ½ points in either direction with a subsequent change in the ‘vig’ For this play consider making a 30* play on Arizona and then add a 5* play using the adjusted line, which I see coming in at 14 ½ +180 or possibly -17 ½ +225. Whatever is put on the board later today at your book is a valid opportunity. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards; 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150+ yards; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play. Based on my SIM generated team grading, the Arizona Cardinals are now the best offensive team in the NFL. As a team, Arizona also ranks best in the passing game and have the best corp of receivers. Minnesota is certainly a solid team, but their biggest weakness is in pass coverage. So, I just do not see Minnesota containing this offense and that Arizona will score often. Take Arizona.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 11 or more points. Yes, they are banged up, but the Patriots have enough talent to exploit an Eagles defense that has yielded 45 points in two straight games each. The line has dropped to 7 ½ from 10 given the injury news, especially the news that Gronk is out. But, the Eagles may be without their leading tackler on the defensive line, who has 40 solo tackles. He has a knee injury that is swollen and he will not be at 100%, so you can expect the Patriots to exploit that situation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1983. Play on any team (NEW ENGLAND) that is a good team outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 YPP and is now facing an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 season; Patriots are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take New England.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by at least 6 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo is on the ropes and needs a win to continue having faint hopes for the playoffs. Media in Buffalo has begun to attack Rex Ryan and some of the defensive lineman have complained about having to drop into coverage. That’s certainly not good news, but Ryan is a veteran coach, who was loved in Buffalo at the start of the season. So, I do believe the home crowd will be quite supportive and I fully expect a huge effort and easy win based on the SIM algorithm projections. Houston has won four straight games and has the 6th best defense in the league gradings database. Yet, Buffalo has a vastly better offense and with a 100% Sammy Watkins finally contributing to that offense, Houston will not be able to contain the Bills offense today. Take Buffalo.

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on North Carolina in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 7 points. This season has seen a growth in the ’adjusted lines’ at a large number of books. These offer a great opportunity form a combination of line and adjusted lines for a much greater return (ROI).  So, I expect a line showing Clemson at 12 ½ +220 or possibly Clemson -14 ½ and +260. Either will work. So, consider making a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-26 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is just 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards; Clemson is a solid 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UNC has demonstrated quick strike plays on offense, but they have not faced a defense as strong as Clemson. UNC ranks 15th in the nation averaging 492 yards per game and 2nd with a 0.599 points-per-play ratio. Clemson, though ranks 7th in the nation allowing just 296 YPG and 22nd with a 0.297 points per play ratio. Further, they are tops in the nation allowing 23.9% third down conversions. Clemson has been great at getting tackles for loss, especially in early down situations and this will be the case again today. Putting UNC into third and long situations plays right into the strength of the Tigers defense. Take Clemson.

35* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on the Naylor Bears in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play, there is a low chance that Texas pulls of the upset, but I have at least one 20+ DOG that has pulled up the upset in the last 6 seasons. I have yet to have one this season. This DOES NOT mean I due to have one either as you never know when it will happen. For this play consider making a 35* play on the line and then if available, play a 3* amount on the money line. Adjusted spreads have come into vogue this season, if available that is an excellent opportunity. The line would be adjusted down to 13 points with Texas paying out at +220 or so. So, if that is available then make a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using that adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BAYLOR) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and now facing an opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Further, Texas HC Strong is a solid Strong is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. Take the Texas Longhorns.

35* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on Houston for the American Conference Championship set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-22 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (TEMPLE) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Temple is a solid money making 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Temple is going for it’s first conference title in 48 seasons. Under HC Rhule, the Owls went 8-16 in their first two season, but with strong Senior leadership this season have posted a 10-2 mark overall and 7-1 in conference play. Houston has an excellent QB in Ward and he has connected to former QB, now WR Demarcus Ayers, who has 89 catches on the season. Yet, the Temple defense is extremely good and play very disciplined gap defense, which is critical in containing the run and pass threat of Ward. The winner of this game gets a possible invite to a New Years Six Bowl, which may be the Peach. I strongly believe it will be Temple.

35* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Many times, the money line spreads become excessively wide when the line is double digits. In this game, look for a ML price of +400 to construct the combination wager. +375 is an ‘ok’ level, but look for +400 at your books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 31-33 mark for just 48% winners, BUT has made a whopping 60 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a very nice +300 DOG play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (BOWLING GREEN) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NUI is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season. Take Northern Illinois University.

35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Detroit Lions in NFC North action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One mandate though is that you get at least +145 on the money line. If not, then simply play a straight 35* play on the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on any team (DETROIT) after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a solid 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season. Detroit is coming off their best offensive performance in several seasons against a dysfunctional Eagles squad on Thanksgiving Day. What has gone largely unnoticed is the Lions defense that has a very good run stop and pass rush grade. Where Rogers has struggled this season is when pressure comes up the middle preventing him from stepping up and completing passes, especially routes over the middle of the field. This is an area that Detroit’s pass rush can excel at tonight and one that I believe will be a huge factor in the Lions pulling off the upset.

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cleveland Browns in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher. My wagering model mandates that a =145 money line be used so that all risk/reward parameters are validated as sound investment objectives. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) cold team having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 27-7 ATS (+19.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt; Browns are just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for less than 75 yards over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 75 yards over the last 2 seasons. Ravens are starting without Flacco under center for the first time in eight seasons. Yet, the bigger story is the demise of Manziel. After reportedly promising coach Mike Pettine he would act on his best behavior over the bye, Manziel was caught on video reciting profane rap lyrics while holding a bottle of champagne at a club in his native Texas. Citing a breach of trust, Pettine announced Tuesday that the former Heisman Trophy winner would be behind McCown and Davis on the depth chart. By contrast, Flacco had started 137 games including playoffs and now a solid veteran in Matt Schaub will get a start. This will be his first start since Week 17 of the 2013 seasons. This is where I strongly believe the Ravens have a huge advantage in this matchup. The Ravens season has been marred with substantial number of inuries including Forsett last week with a broken forearm. Yet, I absolutely love rookie Javorious Allen and I expect my SIM projection to prove more than correct with him gaining 100+ rushing yards. This will then allow Schaub to utilize play action to complete high percentage throws. Take the Ravens.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on Denver in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by six or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This is a slight favorite wager though, so if you have access to the alternate lines then consider making a 27* play using the line and then a 8* play using the alternate line. Now, the alternate line is 7 ½ points more when playing favorites o less for dogs. So, when we play these combination wagers, we are always making our play less of a dog or more of a favorite and getting paid at least +200 for that added risk. If you do not have an alternate line, then simply play it as a 35* play using the line at your best book. Based on my SIM algorithm grading, the Patriots are the best team, by far, in the NFL. Carolina now holds the second spot with Arizona and the Broncos in third and fourth respectively. However, Denver is the only team with a negative grade on offense and an offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Patriots hold the top offensive rank, but only marginally, with Arizona, Atlanta, and the Bengals in close pursuit. The Patriots are excellent in run defense and pass coverage grades. I agree that the Denver offense will be better with Osweiler under center, but this Patriots defense is the worst matchup scenario for the him to face tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 29-3 mark using the money line good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on favorites using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and are now facing a good passing defense allowing between 5.3 and 5.9 PYA and after 8+ games of the regular season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; Denver is a money burning 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Patriots.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 4 points. I also like the ‘OVER” for a 25* graded play as defined by the algorithm. I would also recommend a parlay not to exceed a 5* amount using the Falcons + ‘over’. Atlanta is the third best offensive team in the NFL based on my SIM grading and are 4th overall in total team grading. Atlanta is trailing the undefeated Panthers and are in the midst of the wild card playoff race. In my opinion, they are by far the best team at 6-4 and are certainly flying under the radar. Matt Ryan is not making flashy headline news, but he has the 5th best QB rating in the NFL trailing only Palmer, Brady, Newton, and Roethlisberger in that order. He is one of two QB in that top-5 list with positive grades for pass and run grades. He is not a fast runner by any means, but has a great feel for the pocket similar to Brady that can extend plays. Vikings certainly have a solid defense, but I fully expect Ryan to make quick decisions and also use Coleman (replacing Freeman) in short passes in the flat. Ball control and moving the chains will the dominant these for the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-4 mark good for 88% winners using the money line since 2005. Play against underdogs using the money line (MINNESOTA off 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikings are just 1-7 against the money line (-8.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards over the last 3 seasons. So, Take the Falcons for a 35* play, the ‘over’ for a 25* play, and a 5* parlay Falcons + ‘OVER’.

35* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Saints will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, with a losing record. Here is a second system that has gone 76-35 ATS for 69% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, in November games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Saints offense has several matchup advantages over the Texans defense. Saints defense is weak, but is going up against one of the worst offenses in the NFL based on my SIM gradings. Big day for Brees.

35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by more than 6 points. As many of you know, I did not like seeing Notre Dame in the Top-4 spots in Week1 and Week 2 playoff releases. Not because I dislike the program, but because my data and facts pointed otherwise. Iowa has finally earned their media right to be among the play-off four with a great road win at Lincoln and with the Cornhuskers fully rested off of the BYE. We had Iowa as another 35* ATS winner as well. We also had Boston College in a near upset over Notre Dame, in a game where the Irish had five turnovers. Now, there is no way I see the Irish having 5 turnovers, let alone maybe two turnovers in this game this week. But, what I did see was a highly unfocused team with numerous dropped passes and poor route execution, and not having the focus and will to win despite the seriousness of the game. Stanford has tremendous speed on offense. Notre Dame has yet to play a team with this much elite quickness and speed. With Christian McCaffrey running past defenders and into Heisman Trophy consideration and freshman Bryce Love taking advantage of his limited opportunities to deliver big plays in a flash, the Cardinal have become more difficult to defend than ever. I just do not see the Irish defense holding up against the constant pressure of the Cardinal offensive attack. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cardinal is a stout 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season. There have been 17 games where the Cardinal has gained 200-250 rushing yards in a game since 1992. This is rare, but the algorithm shows a very strong probability that it will happen. As shown above they are 13-4 ATS when it does occur. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at a stunning upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a hot team, having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games; PSU head coach Franklin is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. PSU has the elite defensive unit to disrupt the flow of the MSU offense scheme. PSU also has a potential top-10 draft pick in QB Hackenberg, who I fully expect to play his best game yet this season. PSU simply has nothing to lose being bowl eligible and can essentially take chances and play a focused non-pressure type of game. That is the worst foe a team fighting for the top-4 in the CFP rankings to face. Take Penn State.

35* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a major BIG TEN Conference game set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IOWA will win this game by 4 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play it is a bit different in that you need access to the adjusted lines if possible. The adjusted line is showing Iowa – 7 ½ +220. So, my suggestion is to make a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEBRASKA) in a game involving two good rushing teams gaining between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR after 7+ games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 83-25 ATS (+55.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 16-63 ATS (-53.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points. Take Iowa.

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by at least 4 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. It is a bit different fort this play. If you have access to the NFL adjusted lines, then consider making this a 28* play using the Dallas at pick-em and then adding a 7* amount using Dallas at -7 ½ which is returning +240/250 prices. If no adjusted line is available then simply play Dallas as a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Before getting injured Dallas was 2-0 with Romo under center and now 3-0 after last week’s win. Take Dallas.

35* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they take on the Detroit Lions in the first game of the Thanksgiving triple header. I also have a 25* play on the ‘UNDER’ so I also like playing this as a 7* Parlay with the Eagles and the ‘under’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Eagles will win this game. They have played horribly poor in their last several games with the last one being a complete debacle. I released T-Bay as a 10* graded free play on this site and the algorithm did show a solid probability that T-Bay may win the game. Well, they exceeded my expectations by a large margin. Now, I have seen this sort of trend before in my 21-years of handicapping sports. Local Philadelphia media is in a frenzy calling for Chip Kelly’s head and essentially saying the season is lost – despite the fact that they are still in divisional contention in the extremely weak NFC East. Going on the road is the absolute BEST situation for this team as it gets them away from the media vultures. It is a concern that we have seen opposing defensive players stating that they knew what was coming and could defend the Eagle offense well. Yet, these are players, who have a ton of pride and a ton of desire otherwise they would not be playing the NFL. Yes, of course there are the idiots and clowns that are exceptions, but no pro likes to lose as badly as this Eagles team did at home. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are a solid 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points; 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; Detroit is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Eagles.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Divisional matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 10 points. Some books offer an alternate line and if you have access to that then consider making this a combination wager using a 30* play on the line and then a 5* play using the alternate line, which would be Patriots -14 1/2 at +220 or slightly higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a weak money losing 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Patriots are a solid 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards;  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards;  39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Patriots are a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo got a huge road win last wee defeating the Jets 22-17 and were installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. Although a great win, Buffalo, as many teams are in this role, is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Patriots are off a very emotional 27-26 win over the Giants. However, they are a robust 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots have the best overall team grading in my NFL database and by a significant margin. Although having a horrid pass blocking grade, the offense has done extraordinarily well under Brady and an ever changing week-to-week game plan. What has been quite impressive is the quiet emergence of a top-level defensive unit. The Patriots truly excel in pass coverage, especially third down and red zone situations and this will be very difficult for Buffalo to overcome. Moreover, Buffalo has a modest pass rush at best, so the poor Patriots pass blocking grade is a matchup wash. So, with little or no pressure on Brady and a pounding ground game led by Blount (that is my guess anyway, it could be a name we have never heard of yet), the Patriots will cruise to a double digit win.

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least six points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 75% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is  perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons;  26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards. Arizona has the third-best overall rating in the NFL based on my database while Cincinnati ranks 6th best. Looking at complete offense rankings, ARZ is the best in the NFL by a modest amount over the Patriots. Again, the Bengals are ranked fifth best offensive team. On defense ARZ ranks 11th best while Cincy is 16th in that category. Breaking it down further and the matchup that clearly shows that ARZ is the better team is in pass coverage. As a unit the ARZ secondary is the third best coverage unit while Cincy ranks a distant 14th. So, we have two elite teams, but Arizona has edges in all of the major matches and playing at home on Sunday Night makes it that much bigger. Arizona has the edge scoring 33.6 PPG to the Bengals 26.1 PPG. ARZ has the edge in points-per-play at 0.52 compared to the Bengals 0.409. Arizona has the edge in average scoring margin at 13 PPG compared tot he Bengals 9.2 PPG. Take Arizona.

35* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Green Bay Packers in NFC North action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least three points and continue their amazing ascent int eh NFL standings. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-1 record using the money line good for an incredible 96% winners since 2005. Play on home teams using the money line (MINNESOTA) and is a solid defensive team allowing between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8+ games, after scoring 30 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons;  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, wee see that Minnesota is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. GB overall team ranking is 8th and Minnesota 10th best. Overall offensive grade sees GB ranked 11th and Minnesota 13th best in the NFL. Logically, with Rodgers under center GB ranks fifth in passing grade, but Minnesota has steadily risen to now rank 12th best. In the ground game, Minnesota is 7th best while GB is 12th so no real advantage for either team. The big matchup advantage for the Vikings is with their pass rush that ranks fifth best in the NFL. This defensive front is especially effective at getting pressure up the middle and has always been a problem for Rogers since he has no room to step up and make throws over the middle of the field. That will be the storyline throughout the game. I also like the ability of Minnesota to control the clock with their running game and third down efficiency rates to keep the chains moving and gain a big edge in TOP. Take the Vikings. 

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they host the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game by at least four points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-8 mark good for 85% winners using the money line and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against underdogs vs. the money line (ST LOUIS) off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a losing season record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are just  11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. HC Fisher has been a money burning 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of the Rams. Plus, HC Harbaugh is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Baltimore has had a very rough season, but they are certainly playing much better in recent weeks. Rams had climbed into playoff contention, but two straight losses has made that questionable. Moreover, the Rams offense has stalled and scored just 31 points in the L2 games. Ravens defense is quite good and rank fourth best in my gradings against the run. Stopping the Rams running game will undoubtedly cause third and long situations for the Rams offense and not something they do well. Take Baltimore. 

35* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA well win this game by three or more points.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play there is NO opportunity for this type of combination wager since the ML is nowhere close the minimum +145 threshold needed to validate the wager. So, simply play this with the line you get as a 35* wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 ATS mark good for 68.4% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCLA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. The number 28 comes up frequently in the NCAA matchups and teams that are more capable of exceeding that mark consistently have greater probabilities of covering ATS. In this case, Utah is coming off a horrid double OT loss to Arizona, which could possibly take them out of the PAC-12 Championship game and certainly the Final-4 playoff rankings. They lost RB Booker to a knee injury on top of everything else and I believe it will be extremely difficult for the Utes to recover from the 'hangover' of last Saturday. Take UCLA. 

35* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Wisconsin in Big TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a moderate shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a  31* play on the line and a 4* play on the massive money line is very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-18 for 56% winners and has made a whopping 57 units/unit wagered averaging a +325 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins and is now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Northwestern is a solid 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Wisconsin.

35* graded play on USC as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* graded play using the line and a 8* graded play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-28 mark using the money line good for 53% winners, but has made a whopping 58 units/unit wagered averaging a +270 DOG play over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a solid 17-3 against the money line (+12.5 Units) when they gain 500 to 550 total yards; 35-8 against the money line (+20.3 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fuerther, we see that USC is near-perfect  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. Take the TROJANS.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan in Big TEN Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great chance to win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher with the money line. I have seen +155 and higher so this combination wager is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 mark good for 79.4% winners using the money line and has made 21.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (MICHIGAN) and is a solid offensive team gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a solid defense allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 YPP and after 7+ games and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 13-2 making 11.6 units/unit wagered over the last 10 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. PSU is a solid  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. I fully realize that PSU is 0-4 after their BYE week under Franklin, but this is a vastly different team with an elite defense that is fully rested. Michigan's last two opponents were unranked and the Wolverines had to fight for their Big Ten lives just to win. Now, they enter a fully rested and highly motivated PSU team play their last home game of the season and it also being Senior Day. I also took a look at the emergence of Michigan receiver Chesson, who had 4 TD catches, 207 yards on 10 catches in their double OT win at Indiana just last week. PSU defense will contain him and play very physically at the LOS. I think you will see a cover-2 variation where the corners will be able to bump him at the LOS knowing they have deep safety help. PSU has been able to stop the run without safety help this season. Take the Lions.

35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TENN will win this game. We need to see +145 or higher from the money line to validate a combination wager. If that occurs, then consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. I do n't see the '3" line moving, but the 'vig' charged will change and this may be just enough to get the ML up to that +145 level. If the ML stays below the +145 threshold then simply play this TITAN as a 35* wager on the line.  Both teams are struggling, but both teams are still int he hunt in the AFC South. The colts lead the division, but now with Andrew Luck on IR, this is essentially a Division where anything can happen. However, in this matchup Tennessee is the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Overall team gradings show Tennessee ranked 21st and JAX 28th in the NFL. On offense, TENN ranks 21st and JAX 28th. On defense TENN ranks 11th while JAX is just 30th in the NFL gradings from the database. JAX pass blocking grade is poor and Tennessee has a solid pass rush that I believe will overwhelm the JAX OL throughout this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS for 69% ATS winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TENN is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Take Tennessee. 

50* graded play on East Carolina as they take on UCF in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ECU will win this game by 20 or more points. UCF is winless and they rank in the bottom of the national rankings in all meaningful stat categories. Their defense ranks 116th in scoring defense allowing 38.7 PPG, 117th with a 0.542 points-per-play ratio, 115th allowing 48% third-down conversions, 10th allowing 212 rushing yards per game, and 93rd allowing 257 passing yards per game. Now, ECU is not a blazing offensive powerhouse, but they have massive matchup advantages. They rank 39th converting 43% of all third down situations and rank 33rd gaining 261 passing yards per game. Without wasting more space and your team, the matchup on the other side is equally as favorable for ECU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-24 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (E CAROLINA) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCF is just 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. McNeill is a solid McNeill is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of ECU. Safe to say that ECU will gain well over 100 rushing yards in this contest. Take ECU Pirates. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. Monday we had Texans in a huge +400 money line play combined with the 28* line play, and then last night we had a significant dog winner with Ohio University. To validate the combination wager based on the risk/.reward profiles, we need to see +145 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing just +130, so this line would have to move to 3 1/2 and that really is not expected. If it does, then consider playing a 30* amount on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (W MICHIGAN) off a home loss by 14 or more points, a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games and is now playing a winning record team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Toledo as they take on Bowling Green in NCAA MAC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at a major road win over BG. Given this favorable projection and in the same manner as my most previous upset alert plays on the Detroit Lions and last night's big SU win with the Texans, I like making this a combination wager. It is comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 mark good for 74% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (TOLEDO) excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo has the ground attack to gain a sizable edge in TOP and keep BG offense off the field. They rank 14th in the nation averaging 5.3 YPR and 20th gaining 217 rushing yards per game. BG defense ranks 63rd allowing 4.3 YPR and 63rd allowing 170 rushing yards per game. This is the dominant matchup that will lead Toledo to the ATS win and upset. Take Toledo. 

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texans will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) poor rushing team gaining =4.5 YPR after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. As these technicals feature, I do believe the Houston ground game will be successful tonight and will be a dominant reason Houston will remain very competitive throughout this contest. As I mentioned in Sunday's 'free pick' although Detroit was an 11 point dog, I did like the idea of putting together a combination wager consisting of an 85* play on the line and a 1.5* on the money line. Detroit came through and Houston just might tonight as well. I obviously never know when these huge upsets will occur, but you have to be disciplined and make these types of plays consistently over the course of the season. Brian Hoyer is a solid 11-5 ATS in road games that he has started, so he does have the NFL experience to execute the offense well. Bengals defense is suspect based on run defense and pass coverage grades. So, I do strongly believe that Houston will make this a very closely contested game. Take Houston

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC West Division action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 mark against the money line for 81% winners since 1983. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) when playing a division opponents, off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.ARZ is also a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.5 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.2 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; Seattle is a money burning  1-5 against the money line (-8.9 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. ARZ is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is simply the better team on both sides of the ball and I expect them to win the game. Marshawn Lynch is listed as questionable with reports stating he has a 50/50 chance of going. His back up Rawls has arguably been better than Lynch and this may be HC Carroll just trying to create some propaganda pre-game. Whoever starts, it does not impact the algorithm grading in the least. Take Arizona. 

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Patriots win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2010.  Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons;  9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 300 or more net passing yards over the last 2 seasons;  21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. Giants are just 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons. Tom Brady has the quickest release after snap at 2.1 seconds in the NFL. This is getting the ball out, minimizing opponent blitz schemes and getting the ball to his receivers in space. Further, Brady, who already has the best throwing motion in the game, worked with legendary baseball pitching coach Tom House this week. Perfection is the goal of Brady and it spills over to his teammates. Patriots also have the second best pass coverage grade in the NFL and that unit will take away any vertical routes that Manning wants to attempt. Simply, the Giants have a horrid pass coverage grade and pass rush grade. There is just no way to expect the Giants defense to contain the Patriots offense today. Take New England. 

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Have to mention the NFL and Roger Goodell finally doing something right, but something that should not even be a second thought. A each venue today, there will be a moment of silence for the horrific terrorist actions in Paris Friday night. I plan on joining that in each game I see today. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and are now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Vikings are a money burning  10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that Minnesota is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less; 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games after a win by 3 or less points. Minnesota is tied with Green Bay for the division lead with a very impressive stretch of wins led by a dominating defense. Minnesota's offense is still a work in progress and grading highly negative ranking 16th in the NFL. Vikings defense ranks fifth overall and second in pass rush. However, the Raiders are one of six teams in the NFL to have overall offense and defense positive grades. Raiders offense ranks fifth best and their defense 11th best. The Vikings surprisingly have a highly negative grade in run blocking and will be facing a Raiders run defense that grades fifth best in the NFL. Oakland is the better team and they are playing at home. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-34 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (MIAMI) off a road loss in games played in November. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Miami is a solid 74-31 ATS (+39.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers. Philadelphia has been as money burning 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in the second half of the season; Miami is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off in 2 straight division games. Based on my gradings, Miami has the best pass rush grade in the NFL and will be looking to further confuse QB Bradford with different pre-snap looks. For the Eagles, they simply must establish the run game and I don't see that happening. Eagles offense has climbed the rankings in overall offensive grade, but remain in negative territory. Dolphins have Lamar Miller leading a ground attack that ranks second in the NFL averaging 4.9 YPR. Eagles rank 15th allowing 4.1 YPR. Although Miami has not done well controlling the yempo of games ranking 30th at 46.4% TOP, they are monumentally better than the dead last Eagles, who post a 4.4% TOP. I believe you will see Miami control the tempo with a steady dose of Miller and high percentage pass plays that move the chains to gain a significant edge in TOP. Take the Miami Dolphoins.

35* graded play on Idaho as they host Appalachian State in NCAA action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a very high probability that Idaho will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If a money line is available, which is a stretch given the magnitude of the line, consider maing this a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Each year for the past five seasons, I have had a 20+ DOG win outright. This does not mean that I will have one this year and of course I never know when it will occur. Being prepared for that massive upset is the point and I why I am suggesting the combination wager. I am seeing +900/950 at several books, so hopefully yours will offer you this opportunity as well. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 ATS mark good for 79.4% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This system has gone 14-2 ATS over the L5 seasons and 50% of all plays made by the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Idaho has been quite good on offense this year ranking 57th in the nation scoring 29 PPG and 41st with a 61.6% pass completion percentage. They will throw the ball again and again in this matchup and will be able to move the chains against App State. This type of fast paced offense is expected to wear down the APP defensive front and secondary where they are already thin. Take Idaho. 

35* graded play on Troy as they host Georgia Southern in SUN Belt Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at up[setting GS. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-17 mark good for 69% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 1992. It has averaged a +118 DOG play as well. Play on a home team using the money line (TROY) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Troy is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Toy is also 10-2 against the money line (+11.0 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points;  6-1 against the money line (+9.4 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. GS ranks first in the nation averaging 6.9 YPR, but this is quite misleading given their very weak SOS. They run the ball on 85% of their plays and really have no passing threat. Troy's strength on defense is certainly stopping the run where they rank 53rd allowing 4.1 YPR. They also have a a solid pass rush that ranks 24th getting a sack on 8% of all plays run. This also means that Troy can use that penetration to fill gaps and seal perimeters against the GS ground attack. They will contain the ground game more than enough for the offense to score points and remain fully competitive. Take Troy. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Bowling Green in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. If you can get +145 or higher on the money line then I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (W MICHIGAN) after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BG is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. WMU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Further, WMU is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has one of the best offenses in the country led by their passing attack. However, WMU is solid defending the pass and rank 45th allowing 211 passing yards per game. The WMU ground attack will be the dominating factor leading WMU to a win. They rank 17th gaining 5.2 YPR and will also use play action to exploit a BG secondary that ranks 104th allowing 269 passing yards per game. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Ohio University as they host Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kent State is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-33 ATS (-26.3 Units) when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Ohio University is a solid  25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards. Kent State is a struggling offensive team to say the least. They rank 125th in scoring at 12.2 PPG, 124th gaining 124 yards per game, and 126th with a 0.179 points per play ratio. I believe Ohio will contain any offensive threat by Kent State. Ohio has a vastly better offense and one that can wear down the Kent State defensive front over the course of the game. They rank 58th gaining 399 yards per game and Kent ranks 44th allowing 375 yards per game. Kent just will not have the offensive fire power to keep up with Ohio on the scoreboard. Take Ohio. 

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than three points and have a great shot at winning SU. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-31 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Fox is a solid Fox is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached. If not for Rivers, SD could be winless as the rest of the offense is very poor. They rank 29th in pass blocking and will be going up against Bears pass rush that ranks 16th best in the NFL. Not great, but all of the matchups certainly lean toward the Bears with the exception of the QB position. The Bears will get pressure up the middle against Rivers and not allow him to step up and execute strong powerful throws. I see Cutler having a huge night going against the worst defensive unit in the NFL by far. They are horrid in run defense and also pass coverage. Take the Bears. 

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line.  Not much respect being given to the Raiders and much media emphasis targeting their youthful age. Well, the Raiders do have the youngest average age of their starters and actually isn't that an advantage against the Steelers? I certainly believe so, and the Raiders right now believe they can compete with and defeat any team in the NFL. Raiders remain one of the 6 teams to have positive grades in overall offense and defense in my NFL database. Pittsburgh is one of those 6 teams as well, but Oakland has a vastly stronger defensive grade. Yes, it is the Raiders defense that is vastly better and I believe that will be quite obvious this afternoon. The Steelers barely grade positive on defense and are actually quite poor in the pass coverage grade ranking 31st in the NFL. They offset this weakness with a strong pass rush featuring zone blitz schemes. However, Raiders offense has positive grades across the board in run, pass, run blocking, and pass blocking. So, if Steelers send the blitz the corners will be under immense pressure to cover Cooper and Crabtree in man coverage. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-9 mark using the ML and has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +102 dog. So, that is 84% winners and supports the algorithm grading. Play on any team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) off a home loss against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a solid  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half; Steelers HC Tomlin is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders'. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. As you may already know, I like taking these dogs and forming combination wagers using the money lie and line for maximum ROI. However, this line does not warrant such a combination wager. The ML needs to be at +145 and higher to validate the risk. With the betting line at +2 1/2 and +3 at most books, we need to get to + 3 1/2 line, which may happen in the next several hours. Not suggesting at all that we need that extra 1/2 point to win this wager, but it certainly never hurts to get the best possible line. In this case, if there is a line move, it will be due to the public wagers on Green Bay. Keep in mind too that the books may just increase the 'vig' and keep the line at + 3. So, you may see GB lined at -3 -125 at some point. This will move the money line higher. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS mark good fo 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. GB is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is one six teams in my database that have positive overall gradings in both offense and defense. They rank 7th in offense and 5th in defense. The fact is that the GB offense is struggling and they rank 14th in overall offense and 28th in run blocking. Carolina defense is solid against the run and are arguably one of the best coverage teams in the NFL. That debate would include Denver and Arizona secondaries, but Carolina is elite in pass coverage. So, with the inability of the Packers to establish the ground attack, Rodgers will be forced to throw against an elite secondary. Carolina is the top ground attack in the NFL running a play on 50% of their plays. They rank best at 4.3 YPR, first with 33.3 rushes per game, first averaging 144 rushing yards per game. GB defense ranks 26th allowing 4.7 YPR and 25th allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game. Carolina is expected to have a huge edge in TOP and that domination will go a long way to Carolina remaining undefeated. Take the Panthers. 

35* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in a monster showdown in the SEC set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows that LSU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I love making these DOGS into combination wagers using a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven MONEY LINE system posting a 21-17 mark good for 55% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged an even more amazing +338 DOG play. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (LSU) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has gone 28-9 and has made 20 units/unit wagered averaging a +104 DOG play. Play on a road team using the money line (LSU) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system is 2-0 this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Les Miles is Miles is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of LSU. Alabama has a strong defensive unit, but I do not expect them to hold up against arguably the best offensive team in the nation. LSU ranks second in the nation averaging 0.59 points/play, 6th averaging 7.1 yards per play, and 2nd averaging 6.7 YPR. The LSU defense is a quite strong in their own right and ranks just below Alabama in several of categorical gradings. Yet, the LSU unit will be going against a much weaker offensive unit than that being faced by Alabama today. So, there is a much greater chance LSU dominates on defense and LSU just wears down the Alabama defensive front. Take LSU. 

35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm projects a strong probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (TEXAS A&M) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; Sumlin is just Sumlin is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of Texas A&M. Now, here is an exceptional money line system that uncerscores the chance for the SU Auburn win. It has gone 36-37 for 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 45.4 units per unit wagered since 2005. It has averaged an amazing +228 DOG play with that DOG winning the game 49% of the time. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (AUBURN) with a terrible defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Take Auburn.

35* graded play on Clemson as they host FSU in a huge showdown in the ACC set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 14 points.  If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. The following technical research reinforces the graded ALGO play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (CLEMSON) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 50% of these plays based on the system criteria covered the spread by at least 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a money making 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;    26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Further, we see that FSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is a rock solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game. The Clemson defense is the dominant reason they are ranked No.1 in the nation. They have allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down just 20% on the season and ranks BEST in the nation. FSU is not a strong running team. They rank 48th getting 180 yards per game, but I fully expect Clemson's defensive front to dominate and force FSU into third-and-long situations. On the other side of the ball, Clemson has a punishing ground attack ranking 21st and gaining 216 yards per game. Despite Clemson rushing the ball nearly 60% of all plays, they rank 34th averaging 263 passing yards per game. This is in large part to the play action routes that open up the middle of the field due to the defense having to play safeties in the box. Take Clemson. 

35* graded play on San jose State as they host BYU in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SJST will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you can get action on the money line then make this a combination wager comprised of a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU has been a money burning 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. SJST has an excellent ground attack that matches up quite well against the BYU run defense. It will be that ground attack that then will open up play action in vertical routes for SJST. Moving the chains will critical and SJST has done much better than BYU in 3rd down conversions. BYU ranks 90th converting 37% of those plays while SJST ranks 29th converting 44% of these plays. Further, SJST pass defense ranks best in the nation allowing just 131 passing yards per game. Granted, this is in large part due to their struggles to stop the run. BYU ranks a weak 101st in rushing yards per game. Take San Jose State. 

35* graded play on Kent State as they host Buffalo in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that KS will win this game. Normally, I would make this a combination wager, but at +2 line, the money line is not near high enough. However, if you do get a favorable line movement this afternoon and you can get +150 on the ML, then I suggest making a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-17 mark good for 67% winners and has made a very nice +29 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged a +160 dog too making this a formidable system to use moving forward. Play on a home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo has been a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams averaging

35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by at least 10 points. Carolina is one of six teams that have positive overall grades on offense and defense in my grading database. They rank 6th best in overall offense, ninth in passing, third in rushing, fifth in pass blocking, and 15th in run blocking with a slightly negative grade. The run blocking is improving over the past four weeks, so that is truly not a glaring weakness that a 24th ranked Colts run defense can stop. Colts are just not good on either side of the ball and the Panthers have vast matchup advantages on both sides. Colts have significant negative grades on every category mentioned above and Carolina will expose those weaknesses. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards; 58-17 ATS (+39.3 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards; 60-15 ATS (+43.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards. Take Carolina. 

35* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Green Bay Packers in big time Sunday Night showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these DOGS a combination wager using a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (DENVER) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG against a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Much emphasis and for due reason is being placed on Payton Manning's 'bad' season and that he is just too old to play QB in the NFL. The Denver defense is the unit that Manning never had as support in his previous hall of fame career seasons. It is true that Manning's arm strength is not what it used to be especially on vertical routes, but he doesn't have to go for broke this season either. His defense will keep them in any ball game they face this season and in the playoffs. GB overall offense grade ranks just 11th in my database, which is in stark contrast to what the talking media heads claim. Further, the Packers OL is horrid in run blocking and will be facing an elite defense that ranks first overall by a vast margin, third in run defense, second in pass rush, and second in pass coverage grades. Simply, it would hard to find a stronger defense that Rogers has faced in his career and I think he and the Packers will struggle on both sides of the ball. Take Denver.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the NY jets in an important AFC matchup set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given these projections I like making this a combination wager as long as you can get +150 from the money line portion.  I do think that will be an easy task as I do see anough pubic money money coming in to move this line to - 3 1/2 Jets, or Jets -3 laying -125, which in turn would equate to a plus 160 money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 PPG an dis now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are off an emotional loss to the divisional rival Patriots and this hangover will be a factor in this game. This is not an isolated phenomenon applying only to the Jets, but ALL NFL teams have difficult games following similar type losses. Jets are just 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. There are 6 teams in the NFL that have positive overall grades in offense and defense in the database. Oakland is one of them and they are a team on the rise. They are young and do make mistakes as evidence by their league high committed penalty stats, but each way they do take another step forward. Currently the Jets and Steelers are in the wild card position, but with a win the Raiders certainly will be in position for a possible playoff run. Take the Raiders.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% ATS winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) that are solid  offensive teams scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. 20 of the 28 wins covered the spread by more than 7 points and this system is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is just 11-36 ATS (-28.6 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play. ATL is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Further, BUCS head coach Smith is a nearly imperfect 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game in all games he has coached. As I stated in my weekly offensive review of the best in the NBFL this week, ATL is ranked first in overall offense. Only the Steelers, who rank fourth, have a more balanced offensive attack. What ATL does first and best is run block and this has set up Freeman to become the league's elite new star back. BUCS have a horrid defensive unit that ranks second to last overall and they just can't stop the run ranking 29th. The Bucs are solid rushing the QB, BUT then the weak secondary is exposed, especially when facing a QB as good as Matt Ryan. BUCS rank 31st in pass coverage grade. Take the Falcons. 

35* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that CLV will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at the upset win. I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Browns are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Arizona does grade fifth best offensive unit in the NFL, but flying under the radar are the Browns, who rank ninth best. Plus, the Browns rank BEST in pass blocking grade and will be facing a ARZ pass rush that ranks 29th in the NFL. CLV only scored 6 points last week against STL, who is by far the top overall defensive unit, but completed 30-of-37 passes for 282 yards. That trend will continue here and the Browns will execute in the red zone. Take the Browns. 

50* graded play on Stanford as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by at least 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (WASHINGTON ST) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Stanford is a perfect  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; WSU is a money losing  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992;  5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Teams evolve in college football and the turnover occurs every season and student athletes are on the roster for four years. However, the stats that extend back to 1992 as well as the shorter term ones bring to the light the most valid game stats and their outcomes. When a college teams scores 28 or more points, it can be a very strong indicator for the overall ATS outcome of the game. Such is the case with this matchup. I strongly believe that Stanford will easily score 28 points and could do it before half time. They are an elite offense and one that is flying under the radar. WSU defense has allowed a huge number of points and Stanford has just too much depth for the Cougars to contain for the entire game. Take Stanford. 

35* graded play on Temple as they host Notre Dame in a huge showdown for each team set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-2 mark using the money line for an incredible 94% win percentage since 1992. Play on a home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points and 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Further, we see that ND has struggled against team's with strong defensive units like Temple has this season. ND is just 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing

Ryan won his first 50* Conference Game of the Year last Saturday when Mississippi rolled over Texas A&M and covered by 15 points. He is amazing 14-3-1 ATS with his 35* NCAA releases good for 82.3% ATS winners. He has released his 50* PAC-12 Game of the Year for Saturday. 

10* graded play on California as they take on  Southern Cal in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Cal as a 2 1/2 point dog will win the game. In my 35* 'UPSET ALERT' Titan plays I always like playing them as combination wagers comprised of line and money line wagers. However, we need a money line of +145 to make that risk.reward validated. If this line moves to +3, which I think it may, consider making this an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is just 15-64 ATS (-55.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when they allow 500 to 550 total yards since 1992; 3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. In college football many times the number 28 becomes a big pivot to whether a play wins or loses. In this case, CAL has a very strong opportunity to put up at least 28 points and you see the USC results when they have allowed 28 points. CAL is playing at home and are off too difficult road losses. I fully expect them to put up one of their best performances of the season this afternoon. Take California. 

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Monday Night action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least 11 points. There are five teams that have attained positive grades on both overall offense and defense. ARZ is one of them and I expect that to be quite evident in tonight's matchup against  a vastly inferior foe. Further, ARZ ranks third in the passing game grade and will be going up against a Ravens pass defense that is average at best and certainly below average in the secondary. So, although Baltimore has been good at stopping the run, the game plan for ARZ will be throw and stretch the defense with vertical routes that will in turn open up the running game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-18 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (ARIZONA) off a road loss, good team, winning 60% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Further, ARZ is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Take the Arizona cardinals.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM shows that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. I am seeing +160 for the money line currently and this represents a great price level to execute the combination wager. Right now, Pittsburgh and the Jets control the wild card berths and a loss by either team in this matchup will essentially end any chance of a post season berth. Oakland ranks 10th best offense based on my gradings. They are exceptional in pass blocking too ranking third best in the NFL. The Chargers rank dead last in overall defense grade with a 31st rank defending the run and 24th in pass coverage. I expect the Raiders ground game to get rolling and then to use play action attacking the seams and the perimeter in man coverage situations. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers rank 21st in overall offense grade. If it were not for the talent and tenacity of Philip Rivers, this ranking would be far worse. He has been amazing despite having an OL line ranked 31st in pass blocking grade. The Raiders though are a defensive unit on the rise and currently rank 19th overall, 12th defending the run, and 18th in pass rush. Their one weakness has been in pass coverage where they rank 24th, but again, they are a unit on the rise and I fully expect them to contain Rivers in this game. Further, the Raiders ground game will give them a significant edge in TOP and keep Rivers off the field. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2010. Play against home teams (SAN DIEGO) excellent offensive team gaining >=370 YPG and is now facing a good offensive team gaining between 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; SD is a money burning 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the NY jets in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) in a game involving two teams who outpass their opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass, after the current home favorite gained 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect  7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots rank 4th in overall offense, third in passing, and a solid 9th in rushing based on my gradings. The media talk all week has centered on the Jets best defense in the NFL theme, but honestly, my work shows them as the 12th best defensive unit (10th versus the run. 25th pass rush, and 6th in pass coverage). Patriots rank 11th in pass blocking grade, despite having numerous injuries along the OL and with many players taking on two different positions in the same game. I'll be brief here, Brady will have time to throw and will be able to make the correct decisions connecting to his receiver. If the Jets take away the underneath routes, which I expect them to try, Brady will be able to exploit man coverage on the perimeter. In addition, if the Jets try and blitz and/or take away the underneath routes, it leaves TE Gronkowski in man coverage. Patriots defense has struggled against the run and the Jets do have a strong matchup with Ivory in this area. Yet, a strong running game will not be near enough to keep with the Patriots offense that I believe will put up a ton of points this afternoon in Foxboro. Take the Patriots. 

50* graded play on Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My rating system equates to wagers that can be placed. In other words if you wager $100 on my 25* graded plays, then wager no more than $200 on this play. If you wager a dime on the 25* plays than wager no more than a 50* play on this one. Use common sense and discipline. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In the majority of my plays, the number 28 comes up a lot and essentially acts as a pivot point of sorts. In this case, I feel very confident that Mississippi will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games since 1992, Texas A&M is just 23-78 ATS (-62.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Further, there are other 'bad news' items hitting Texas A&M. They are a money burning 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1992;  10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992;  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Now, again, the 28 points scored part comes up and is validated by the high probability that Ole Miss will score at least 28 points. They are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. This last historical reference also under scores the present fundamental matchup I see that will dominate this game in favor of Mississippi. That is that Ole Miss will control the LOS on both sides of the ball. They will get the ground game going and then use play action to stretch the defense even further with vertical and 'double-move' routes. We have also seen Ole Miss controlling the ball for less than half the game, but that is not because of fundamental flaws. Further A&M is just 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games facing ball control teams posting 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. In finally, A&M is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game since 1992. An intangible is that Ole Miss lost in humiliating fashion to vastly inferior Memphis team. They got looking ahead to this conference showdown. I am very confident Ole Miss as a team will be extremely focused on executing each play run to perfection. Ole miss ranks just 71st in passing yards allowed, BUT they rank 17th in opponent yards per pass. They are excellent in vertical route coverage and also get enough pressure on the QB without having to bring the blitz. Take Mississippi for a 50* graded play. 

35* graded play on the Vanderbilt as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vandy will win this game by at least 6 points. They are just a 1 point dog, but the betting flows are expected to be heavily on the side of Missouri as game time approaches. I would choose to wait and see if this line movement occurs and look to get +2 lines. Now, I am not saying we need the extra point to win this play, but it never hurts to give you what the market offers.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-36 mark for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 1992. The reason is that it has averaged a +280 dog play. Play on home underdogs vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 37-16 for 70% winners and has made 30 units/unit wagered averaging a +124 dog play since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (MISSOURI) after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just  10-25 against the money line (-30.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-8 against the money line (-13.8 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. Two of the best SEC defenses face off in this matchup. I give the edge to Vandy noting they rank 6th in third down conversions allowed while Missouri ranks 76th. Further, Vandy ranks ninth in the nation with a 55.7% TOP percentage. Missouri is 109th at just 45% TOP. The Vandy offense will be far more successful in third down conversions and moving the chains than Missouri and that will be a dominant theme in what will be a field position first priority for Vandy. Take Vanderbilt. 

35* graded play on San Diego State as they host Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that SDST will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these dogs of greater than 3 points into combination wagers comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-7 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005.  Play against a road team (UTAH ST) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 64% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. SDST is a strong running team and uses the run to set up the pass and play action opportunities. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 46.7 running plays per game and 10th rush play percentage at 66.2%. UTST has been able to thwart the ground attack on their opponents to date, but I clearly see SDST getting the ground game going and simply wearing down the UTST defensive front over the course of the game. Also, note that when SDST does pass they are looking to vertical routes. They rank a decent 68th averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Take San Diego State.

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Also, a 10* play 'OVER" the posted total. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these DOGS a combination wager comprised of a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Instead of the combination wager, you could play a parlay using the money line and the 'over' for no more than 5* play. Another consideration is to play a 5* play using the money line and 'over' 49 1/2 on the adjusted total spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The difference between these two defenses is quite vast. However, the one thing SF does well is defend the run and this is clearly the key to SF winning this game. In stopping or at least containing Marshawn Lynch, the 49ers then force Wilson to win the game with his arm. Note, that the Seattle offense grades 26th best in my NFL overall grades and that SF is right behind them - so the offenses are nearly equal and SF has been steadily improving the past few weeks. I also see Kaepernick having a break-out game to the 2015 campaign. The Seattle defense grades modestly negative in pass coverage. Kaepernick's mobility and quickness presents a problem to the Seattle secondary. By extending play, Kaepernick can allow his receivers a few extra seconds to gain separation and make high percentage throws. Further, we see that Seattle is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. Take the 49ers. 

35* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This is a major divisional battle for control of the NFC East and obviously the Eagle fans will be in a frenzy by game time. My SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* p;lay using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid  27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. Eagles ofensee is always in the media focus given Chip Kelly's background and resume. Yet, they continue to not play consistent football and execute for 60 minutes. They rank 24th in overall grade. It has the defense that has out performed so far this season, but here again they have allowed scores and big gains with failed assignments in coverage. Yet, they rank 4th overall i total defensive grade. The key, though is that are not doing well in the pass rush categories and against Eli Manning, you cannot have a defense that does not get pressure on him. If he gets more than 3.5 seconds of time to scan the field, he will pick the Eagles secondary apart. If the Eagles blitz he has slant routes to the TE and WR (Beckham) in man coverage. RB Vareen also presents matchup problems for the Eagles defense, who will be forced to respect his presence on the field as a release valve if the Eagles choose to blitz. His presence in any down and distance almost eliminates the Eagles blitz. Eli is a veteran quarterback, who truly know how to take what a defense gives his team. Take the Giants. 

35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at the upset. In order to take advantage of the upset, consider playing a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-12 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD defense has been suspect to say the least, but GB is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=6 yards/play. SD has struggled to run the ball, but I expect them to have greater success in this matchup. Green Bay has a good run defense if you listen to the media, but based on my work, they have the 25th best run stop grade in the NFL. They do have a strong pass rush, but Rivers is fully capable of getting rid of the ball quickly, especially now that AntonioGates is back at TE. The Chargers have failed to stop the run, but what they do well is pass rush and cover receivers. Further, GB offense ranks 29th in run blocking grade and for this matchup I give the edge to the SD defensive front. Rivers has a 103.8 QB rating, is completing 71% of his pass attempts, and is averaging 323 passing yards per game. This simple set of facts can not be under estimated simply because the Chargers are visiting Lambeau. Take the Chargers.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-39 mark using the money line good for 69% winners since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 51-13 for 80% winners since 2010. Play on home teams using the money line (BUFFALO) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Buffalos offense is steady and is showing some signs of better execution, but it will be their Rex Ryan signature defense that will win this game. In the past Ryan's defense schemes have featured tremendous pass rush pressure, but this year's edition has featured very strong pass coverage. Bengals are the fourth best overall offense and rank first in the passing game based on my gradings. The Jets pass coverage will be strong enough to disrupt the Bengals offensive flow and generate a few turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Buffalo is a solid  28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt;Bengals are a money losing 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo. 

Ryan's algorithm based 35* TITAN releases have gone 10-1-1 ATS this season. He has THREE of them going on the Saturday card and all are big-time marquee games. 

10* graded play on the Ohio State Buckeyes as they take on Penn State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show solid projections calling for OSU to win this game by 24 or more points. This line jumped out at me at fist given that it was much larger than I had expected. When the SIM projected OSU as the clear cut play I began to research the matchups. OSU has major advantages on both sides of the ball and will win the battle of the trenches. It seems that OSU has been sleep walking through some of their games and then turning on the 'gas' to get the win and pull away from their opponent. An Urban Myer led team is not normally like this and I fully believe that he will get his team focused and ready to play four quarters. PSU has struggled on offense, despite having a possible top-10 pick in Hackenburg. The OL has not been able to hold up consistently, especially under blitz situations and have allowed far too many sacks. Lions rank just 96th in yards gained and 115th in third-down conversions. With Hackenburg under duress on most plays he has completed only 53% of his pass plays and now will be facing an OSU defense  ranking third with a 46% pass completion rate, 4th in yards allowed per pass, and sixth allowing 146 passing yards per game. The PSU defense does rank in the top-10 in several of the major defensive categories. They will be on the field a lot longer in this game than in past games and OSU will just wear them down with their depth. PSU will have too many three-and-outs and will not have more than 25 minutes in TOP. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a solid 102-34 ATS (+64.6 Units) when they allow 14 or less points;  61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt since; 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons. Take Ohio State.

35* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners  since 2010. Play on any team (GEORGIA) excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR against a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just 5-29 ATS (-26.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; Georgia is a solid 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Georgia is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Georgia has a very strong offense that will be going up against a vastly improved Missouri defense. However, Missouri's offense is not good and will not be able to compete and match the offensive output of the Bulldogs. Missouri offense ranks 119th scoring just 15.2 PPG while Georgia's ranks 26th scoring 35 PPG. Georgia has had a very difficult schedule, but still ranks 35th in opponent yards allowed at 4.9, 37th allowing 361 yards per game, and 33rd in opponent rushing yards per catty at 3.6. Missouri has big struggles running the ball ranking 103rd gaining just 3.6 and will struggle even more against a defense that has already played Alabama. I think Georgia  will dominate both sides of the LOS and will score almost at will. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on the Michigan Wolverines as they host Michigan State in a major BIG TEN matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (MICHIGAN) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 52% of these plays covered the spread by 10 or more points and based on the SU record of the system the home team has a 47-4 winning record. The Michigan defense is very real and this year's edition of the MSU offense is not all that strong. The Spartans rank 58th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Wolverine defense ranks 1st in scoring defense at just 6.3 PPG and yards allowed at just 181 per game, and allowing only 2.9 yards per play. Michigan is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half in all games he has coached. His presence was expected to bring back Michigan to a Big TEN powerhouse, but it is happened far faster than anyone thought possible. After three straight shutouts, it is quite clear that the team is Harbaugh's and that the players are all on the same page. Dominant winning only makes the team family chemistry that much stronger and that much more focused. Michigan is the play. 

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 27 or more points. Baylor is the top scoring offense in the nation at 63.8 PPG, yards per game at 710, points per play at 0.83, yards per play at 9.3, and third down conversions at 61%. WVU is a decent team , but I don't believe they have the strength to match Baylor's offense for an entire game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-15 for 76% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP against a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Further, we see that WVU is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and head coach Briles is a near-perfect Briles is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of Baylor. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SD will win this game by 6 or more points. Rivers is playing some of his best football of his career and has willed his team to a 2-2 record through four games. His flash stats don't look all that impressive, but he is executing progressions at a very high level and not forcing balls into tight coverages. Tonight, he will be facing a highly suspect secondary that grades 25th in pass coverage. The Chargers offense grades 8th in passing offense grade and has steadily risen in each of the past three weeks. Plus, he gets TE Gates back tonight. SD will design a scheme to stretch the Steeler defense vertically and then use the underneath routes as essentially long handoffs. This controls the clock and moves the chains. SD already ranks 3rd in offensive yards per game at 411 and I fully expect them to eclipse this mark tonight. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is just 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play; Chargers are a solid money making 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Even with Vick under center, the Steelers do have two big-time play makers in Bell and Brown. I do believe that the SD defensive front will be able to control the LOS and then be able to blitz Vick and force him into quick throws - as opposed to letting him air it out to either Brown or Bell. Take San Diego.

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SF will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. I like adding a 3* play using the money line to take advantage of the possible upset SFD 49er win for a total of 28* of risk. 49ers rank dead last in team offense scoring just 12 PPG. They do rank 5th best gaining 4.4 yards per rush and this will be a dominant key to the 49ers remaining competitive in this game. Kaepernick is vastly better than what he has produced this season and he knows he is on the hot seat and could be benched if he under performs again. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 111-57 ATS mark good for 66% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; Giants are a 15-40 ATS (-29.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards. Kaepernick has a big game led by a strong running game that will include Kaepernick as well. Take the 49ers.