10* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they host the Oregon Ducks in a HUGE PAC-12 matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 9 points and has a shot at upsetting the Dicks. I like adding a 1.5* amount using the Money Line in addition to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. of the 34 winning plays, 19 of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. This system has also gone a solid 12-3 ATS for 80% winners over the past three seasons. Stanford has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon. I am not in the least saying that Oregon is not a great team, but they are over rated by many measures in my opinion. One of which, is that the Ducks have not had to standup to the very strong and pounding grounds attack that Stanford brings to their games. Stanford has the same ingredients and team composition that dominated Oregon last year when the Ducks were 18 1/2 point home favorites. In that game Stanford had the ball for 37:05 minutes, had 21 FD, 211 passing yards and ran the ball 46 times for 200 yards. Oregon does rank better than Stanford in rushing stats, but that is because Oregon runs the spread and uses a wide array of running/option plays. Stanford runs a power game that is designed to gain a TOP advantage and to wear down a defensive front over the course of the game. Moreover, Oregon has not had to play strong defense in a closely contested game yet this season. Due to their large leads they have been able to play very basic underneath/bracket type coverages. Stanford has a very good defense too and I do believe that Mariota will throw at least one INT tonight. Cardinal RB Gaffney (6-1,225) will run over Duck defenders at the second level. He is also elusive and very hard to find behind the VERY athletic and large OL. He will have a big night and this in turn sets up play action for Hogan to complete passes in space to Montgomery and Cajuste, who are both excellent gaining yards after the catch. Take Stanford.

10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Washington Redskins in Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-17 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners and has made 31 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (WASHINGTON) that is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring 30 points or more last game. Two teams, who were expecting much better seasons will compete tonight. They also share the dubious distinction of the worst NFL scoring defenses. Minnesota has a great ground attack led by Peterson, but have had to abandon that strength when opposing offenses managed to get two scores ahead. Playing behind has been the theme with the Vikings, but I strongly believe things will be vastly different for them tonight. The best offensive scheme when two teams with horrid defenses face one another is play a power running attack with short underneath passes periodically on first down. This combination forces LB and second level defenders to respect the flats and to be aware of not getting beat on double-move vertical routes. The Redskins

10* graded play on Ohio University (OU) as they take on Buffalo in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be televised by ESPN2.The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio University will win this game. This is a major showdown in MAC action with Buffalo leading the East Division with a 4-0 record and Ohio U right behind at 3-1. The winner will take a major step toward winning the East Division and a ticket to the MAC Championship. OU QB Tyler Tettleton has provided tremendous team leadership. He has thrown for 300 passing yards, 9 TD, 3 INT in his last three games. He has completed 69 passes of 95 attempts and posted a 190 QB rating over this span. OU ranks 15th in the nation averaging 8.6 yards-per-pass. Now, this does not mean they have the 15th best when SOS and Conference PR are factored in, but it is extremely strong when compared to other MAC teams. I also belevie the ground attack will be highly successful against Buffalo and this then allows Tettleton to use play-action knowing he has man coverage over the majority of the field. RB Blankenship is a 'fireplug' power runner, but has great elusiveness and is very hard to bring down in space. He is 5-9 and 206 pounds and is hard to locate behind the massive OL. He has great quickness through holes. WR Foster, who has 50 catches for 718 yards and 6 TD, will be a primary focus of the Buffalo defense. This then opens up the opportunity for Cochran to play an even graeter role in the offensive scheme. Buffalo can't doubel team both and also defend the run. This is exactly why the balanced offensive attack will be highly successful against Buffalo. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?68-32 ATS for 68% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (OHIO U) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning 60-80% of their games on the season. Take Ohio University.

10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game by 13 or more points. I also like a 5* on them in the first-half and to play 'UNDER' for a 5* amount. Given the extra pair of 5* plays, there is no advantage to throw more dough on a parlay. Sticking with the discipline is always the most important factor in joining me each day. SIM shows that Green bay will score more than 28 points.In past games, the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season, 0-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-67 ATS since 1992 when they have given up 28 or more points. SIM shows that GB will gain more than 450 offensive yards. In past games, The Bears are 3-15 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 or more yards. GB is 2-0 ATS this season, 5-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-8 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450+ yards. They are a remarkable 117-32 ATS when the have scored 28 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on favorites (GREEN BAY) off a win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. 38 of the 55 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points. It is widely know how dominant Rogers has been against the Bears. However, tonight, it will the continued emergence of Eddie Lacy and Packers ground attack that will be noted. Lacy leads the league with 395 rushing yards since returning in Week 5 from his own injury. With 15 forced missed tackles and 208 yards after contact on 97 carries, his performance has been hard-earned. This has occurred despite below average play form the OL with run blocking grades over the past 4 weeks. Sitton is on the only OL earning solid grades, but I strongly believe the entire OL will have their best game tonight. The Bears have been hammered with injuries across the defensive front. It is quite evident in that they have are allowing 139 rushing yard per game and SEVEN TD over the last four weeks. Last year's first round pick, McClellin ranks 45th out of 46 DE in run defense and he has been overmatched and dominated in every game this season. This is also a reason for the 'UNDER' play as I expect more time consuming double digit play scoring drives, then flash scores in this matchup. The ground attack will also set up man coverage for Rogers to go to his favorite pass catcher in Nelson. These high percentage short pass routes will serve to get first downs and move the chains. Take the Packers for a 10* unit play, 5* Under and 5* Packers for the first-half line.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Baltimore may be coming off the BYE, but their problems cannot be fixed with added rest. They had a horrible time establishing the run and have put themselves in difficult second and third down situations. The entire OL has graded poorly in nearly every game this season. They fail to get open lanes and RB Rice has not shown significant elusiveness ands runs mostly down hill. The Browns offense has struggled due to QB injuries and Jason Campbell will get his shot to run the offense today. However, the dominant reason I see the Browns winning is their excellent defense, especially against the run. The unit ranks among the best in the NFL, led by Hughes, Taylor, and Rubin. A near-equally as strong matchup is with Browns WR Gordon. Since returning from his suspension in Week 3, Gordon has been playing like a Top 10 wide receiver. He is eighth in the league in yards-per-route-run at 2.27, and ranks higher than Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson. All eight of his career touchdowns have come from over 20+ yards, so if he

10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Based on the 'flash' stats and generic rankings, this is a mismatch. However, first note that Bucs are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when facing elite teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?22-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (TAMPA BAY) after 7 or more consecutive losses and is now facing an opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. TB is winless and has lost their lead RB Doug Martin for the season. Seattle ahs lost just once this season. Point is that the line is heavily inflated reflecting those two facts. I had a 10* winner last Monday night when the Rams were supposed to get throttled by the Seahawks. The Ram had a chance on the final play from the Seahawk 1-yard line to win the game. Seattle escaped. The Rams did a great job establishing the run with a rookie RB. I believe the same thing will happen here in this matchup and that Mike James will have a very solid game. He has had only a few touches, but he has demonstrated great quickness and elusiveness and will be a solid weapon out of the backfield when Seattle brings pressure. Another matchup I like for the Bucs is the recent emergence of TE Timothy Wright. This has steadily become a go-to guy fro QB Glennon. The combo has connected on 19 of 25 targets, 195 yards, and a TD. Seattle is banged up on offense. Harvin will not play in this game and they have already lost Sydney Rice for the season. This makes Baldwin and Tate the featured WR and Bucs will certainly use Revis on Tate. This forces Wilson to then target Baldwin, who the Bucs secondary can bracket with disguised coverages knowing Revis will always be in man coverage against Tate. Take the Bucs.

10* graded play on New Mexico as they take on San Diego State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. In this case and based on the projections, I like playing this game as a 10* unit using the line and then adding a 2* amount using a very juicy money line. SDST is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. Based on my matchup analyses, New Mexico is the better team on both sides of the ball. They certainly have a much better offense that ranks 34th in the nation averaging 33 PPG, 23rd posting a 0.481 yards-per-point quotient2nd gaining 322 rushing yards per game. They do throw the ball as well, but rely squarely on the ground attack. They rank 81st averaging 6.7 YPP, and third with a paltry 0.94 interception percentage. So, this clearly reflects that when defenses steadily move up safeties to the LOS to stop the run, NM then exploits the spaces left in the middle of the field with high percentage pass plays. SDST ranks 81st allowing 32 PPG and rank and have not stopped a team from scoring in the red zone this entire season. The rankings would indicate that NM has the weaker of the two defenses. However, after factoring in how quickly the NM offense can score, then shows that NM defensive unit is a solid bunch at the MWC level. In this game, I strongly believe that MN will enjoy a significant edge in TOP and this will keep the defensive unit fully fresh to contain any SDST scoring threat. Take New Mexico.

10* graded play on Florida State as they host Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 24 points. I'll use some analogies here in hopes of how dangerous it is to take Miami and believe that this is just too many points. Well, taking Miami is like standing in front of an unstoppable freight train or perhaps better trying to catch a falling butcher knife. In somewhat of a rare situation, the public is modestly dominating the betting flows betting on the Hurricanes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained opponents by 1.2+ YPP and after 7+ games have been played. and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system has also gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons and underscores the danger in fading teams that are playing against an elite team that has produced strong results for several weeks. I had identified FSU as a preseason pick for the National Title and really became confident in Week 3 as may of you already know. I had them as my ACC Game of the Year against Clemson two weeks ago. In sum, this team is getting better and has yet to play their best game. I have consistently identifed the FSU defense as the dominant reason they can win the ACC and get into the Title game. What is quite amazing, is that this unit gets better each week and the fact the offense has taken flight only makes it very difficult for any opponent to compete. FSU defense ransk 4th allowing 14.2 PPG, 7th allowing 297 YPG, 4th allowing 0.201 points-per-play, 5th allowing 4.2 YPP, and 2nd allowing just 27% third-down conversions. Miami offense is decent, but they are not strong enough to consistently move the chains. Moreover, they rank 75th converting only 38% of third conversions. This number will be significantly lower in this game. I could go on, but the play is FSU.

10* graded play on Florida as they take on Georgia in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. These two teams have identical records at 4-3 on the season and 3-2 in SEC. It is quite amazing that Georgia, who I still believe is a Top-10 team, could fall to 4-4 on the season. However, the winner will be just one game behind Missouri, who is very likely to lose at least one more game down the stretch. That's life in the SEC though and sometimes the injury bug is included. It has been Florida's turn this year to go through the injury gauntlet, but I also believe they are deep enough to plug-and-play and continue to play at a high level. This game is being played in Jacksonville on a neutral field making it even easier for both team's fans to attend. Florida's offense has been struggling since the loss of Driskel, but it has been the tenacity of the Gator defense that is the dominant reason Florida can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?20-6 mark for 77% winners using the money line since 2007. Plat against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GEORGIA) and is a solid rushing team gaining between 190 and 230 RY/G) and is now facing a good rushing defense allowing between 100 and 140 RY/G, after 7+ games have been played in the regular season. Florida defense ranks fifth in the nation allowing 16.3 PPG, 4th allowing 273 YPG, 4th allowing 27% third-down conversions, and fourth allowing 5.5 yards-per-pass. Take Florida.

10* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Oregon State in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Many times I will split the wager, or simply add a token amount to the money line to benefit from the projected upset. In this case, there is really no advantage to play the money line. I would not recommend adding more than 1.5* amount using the money line on top of the 10* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?31-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2007 and has gone 19-2 ATS for 90% winners over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (USC) that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP, after 7+ games of the regular season have been played. USC has had a very tough schedule this season. One of the toughest in the nation. OSU has not had that level of comp. All of the previous games that USC has played against tougher comp, makes the team stronger across the board and it will show tonight in numerous matchups. OSU may be 6-2 on the season, but they lost in Week 1 to Eastern Washington and last week against Stanford. The toughest part of their schedule is coming up starting with the Trojans, the @ ASU, Washington, then @ Oregon. USC defense has been their best football right now and the SIM shows a projection that OSU will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, where USC has allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards, they are 1-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three seasons. Take USC.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a tremendous shot at getting a home win. I also like the 'UNDER' in this game for a 5* play and as an extra only play, consider placing a parlay using the Money Line and the 'UNDER'. I know some of you will consider teasing this opportunity, but believe me when I tell you to simply stay away from those losing proposition bets. In 19 seasons of sports handicapping, I have yet to find any reason to throw money on teasers. Fact is that simply playing a consistent and disciplined 10* wager on my NFL plays has made a ton of dough for you benefitting from the 21-6 ATS record. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?71-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a solid team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Bengals QB Dalton has become the first Bengal to throw for 5 TD over a 3-game span and five of them came last week against the Jets. However, the Miami defense is vastly better and will bring a much more difficult assignment for Dalton to overcome. The Dolphins will be able to stop any Bengal ground attack and then can be fully focused on showing Dalton a wide array of defensive pre-snap looks. I don't believe they necessarily have to bring pressure on the majority of snaps, but can certainly show it during pre-snap. Miami will be successful in using a very creative defensive scheme to keep Dalton guessing. Take the Dolphins.

10* graded play on the Memphis Tigers as they host the Cincinnati Bearcats in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday October 30. The simulator shows a high probability that Memphis will win this game and taking the 2 1/2 points is the way to go. I often times use the money line with dogs where the upset probability is significant. However, this skinny line does not afford a strong risk/reward profile to add a small play using the money line in addition to the 10* line play. The key to this game is simply looking at the SOS and not the overall records. It is here where you realize why Memphis is just a 2 1/2 point dog. They have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Cincinnati. It is one of the widest margins I have seen this season. Take my word for it and on your own take a look at the lineup each team has faced to date. Cincy has been favored in every game this season and has gone 3-4 ATS against this weak competition. Memphis has been dogs in all., but one game and have gone 3-3 ATS against much stronger opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (CINCINNATI) that are solid offensive teams scoring between 28 and 34 PPG and is now facing against a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games. Yes, it is true that Cincy scored more than 37 points. They scored 38 against a Temple team that is 0-4 in conference and 1-7 overall and 38 against a UCONN team that is 0-3 in conference and 0-7 overall. Take Memphis.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that St. Louis will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games. Befoere I address the Rams offensive scheme, let's first take a look at how the Rams defense matches up against the Seattle offense. The Seattle OL has not done a good job protecting Wilson as he has spent 25% of the snaps trying to create. Receivers are not getting separation from defenders in the first three to four seconds and the OL and double team help from backs and TE, have not given Wilson that extra 1/2 second to make plays. instead he has been on the run to extend plays and make things happen for them. The Seattle tackles are ranked 54th and 68th in Pass Blocking Efficiency, the guards 40th and 41st. Max Unger is th emost consistent member of the OL and ranks 10th among centers. Pass protection help isn

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Cardinals will win thi sgame by at least 5 poits. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-6 mark for 81% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) and are good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is playing an average defensive team scoring between 18 and 23 PPG and after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. 18 of the 26 wins have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This underscores my belief that this game will not be close. The SIM shows a proecjtion that the Falcons will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS this season, 7-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 49-18 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Cards HC Arians is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992. The Cardinals will be able to get plays today from their wideouts based on the matchups. Last year

10* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. It is an amazing fact that should Dallas stumble in Detroit and the Giants with the City of Brotherly Love, the Giants would find themselves just 2 games behind the division leader with 8 games remaining. The lack of a running game has put increased pressure on the right-arm of Eli Manning. I do believe that the Giants will be able to establish a ground attack today and take immeasurable pressure of Eli to execute third and long situations. One of the key matchups to watch is Victor Cruz when lined up as the slot receiver. He will be defended by Boykin. In the first game between these two clubs, Boykin did a great job against Cruz. In fact, when QB have thrown to the slot receiver with Boykin in coverage they have a very weak 49 QB rating. Cruz will get lined up all over the field today to create matchups that avoid Boykin. Should Boykin follow suit to the perimeter to shadow Cruz all game, then their ill be excellent matchups in the interior of the Eagles secondary. By his presence on the field, Cruz can take Boykins impact out of the game, even if he has minimal targets from Manning. Note, the Eagles secondary has been torched and ranks 31st in the NFL. Both CB, Williams, and Fletcher rank poorly in yards allowed per coverage snap. Another key to a Giants win is slowing down RB Sean McCoy. In the first matchup, the Giant tackles dominated Eagle Center Kelce, who has emerged as one of the best young centers in the NFL. However, the Giants bring major matchup problems to him and the Eagles OL. In the first game, Kelce recorded a horrid -8.5 grading, which is by far his worst game this season. McCoy averaged 2.2 YPC in that first game and I fully expect more fo the same today. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season. Eagles defense will be exploited. They rank 23rd alloing 5.7 yards per play and 26th allowing 28 PPG. The Ginats flash stats are not strong. However, they rank 11th best allowing 5.1 yards-per-play. This reflects that they have had to deal with the offensive woes and trying to defend far too many short field situations. This game will be vastly different. Take the Giants.

10* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on the Oregon Ducks in a PAC-12 showdown set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Based on the body of research I have completed, this is just far too many points to give an explosive UCLA team. Oregon ranks very high in all offensive categories and they are quite deep coming off the bench. Sophomore Byron Marshall has taken the place of injured junior Thomas since Week 4 and has produced the second most rushing yards in the FBS. Although this is a great accomplishment, the levels of competition it was attained against is not impressive in the least. Thomas is expected to return and even though they are adding depth to the offense, I expect it to produce more of a chemistry problem with the OL having to execute for two different style runners. In fact, this game finds Oregon the least favored at 23 points of all lined games this season. Given the significant chalk for this game, I do think the look-ahead game against Stanford next week could be a distraction for the Ducks. They know they are 'supposed' to win over UCLA easily and that the most important game of the season rides next week in Palo Alto. UCLA is a very stout, resilient, and talented football team. The true weakness of the UCLA team is on the OL in pass protection. This weakness is more than offset by the juicy spread we are receiving though. OL play is built around game experience and I do believe that QB Hundley, who will be playing on Sundays, can create quick release throws to their playmakers in space. It is here where I strongly believe UCLA can compete with Oregon. These quick throws, are essentially running plays and they serve to minimize intensive blitz schemes, as Evans and Fuller (51, 619 yards) have major matchup advantages in man coverage situations. Don't forget too, that the UCLA offense is averaging 40 PPG ranking 11th best in the FBS and has been accomplished against a stronger SOS. This will be the BEST defense Oregon has faced yet with UCLA ranking 12th in the FBS allowing 19.2 PPG and 8th allowing 0.243 points-per-play. Take the points!

10* graded play on South Carolina as they take on Missouri in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that South Carolina (SC) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?45-18 mark for 71% winners making 32 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MISSOURI) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing140 to 190 RYPG, and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has averaged a +115 DOG play. Gamecocks are a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Missouri is off a most impressive home win defeating the Gators 36-17 as three point dogs. However, most teams that are off a headline-making win are very prone to letdowns the next game. In fact, the Tigers are off three straight impressive wins over Vandy, Georgia, and Florida. The bad news for Tiger fans is that they are a money burning 20-32 against the money line (-43.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. Missouri has played a difficult schedule just being the SEC. Yet, SC has played one of the toughest slates of any team in the nation. This provides a slight edge to the Gamecocks, who bring one of the fastest defenses in the SEC to this matchup. In my opinion, it will be a dominant SC defense that will drive them to a win today. Take SC.

10* graded play on Akron as they host Ball State in MAC Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Based on the favorable projections I like playing an alternative wager using a 8.5* amount on the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible SU win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?69-33 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs (AKRON) that ahs been a struggling rushing team averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Ball State is 7-1 on the season with a perfect 4-0 mark in conference play. They are tied for first with NO. 16 Northern Illinois, who they play at their house in two weeks. Their offensive stats are impressive, but they have been attained against a significantly weak schedule of opponents. Akron has just 2 wins, but has played a vastly more difficult schedule. In Week 3 Akron played Michigan very tough and nearly upset them on their own field losing 28-24 and easily covered the 35 point spread. Granted, we have found out that Michigan was not a Top-25 type team this season, but the ability of any team to go to Michigan and play that well is impressive. What I expect is that Akron's defense will rise to the challenge of containing and stopping the Ball State offense. As noted, Akron's team stats are middle of the road, but they are against much stronger comp than Ball State ahs faced. I also believe the team speed that Akron has at the skill positions is going to create matchup issues for Ball State to defend. Take Akron.

10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State as they host Marshall in C-USA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. This game will be aired on Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that MDTS will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot a earning a home upset win. More important is that with a win, they even their season record at 4-4 and then face a much easier schedule down the stretch that includes winless Southern Mississippi and 1-5 UTEP and 1-5 Florida International. They have also played a vastly more difficult schedule than Marshall and this 'seasoning' nearly always pays off for teams in the second half of the season. The statistical rankings would show that Marshall has the better offense and a significantly better defense, but when you discount the SOS that Marshall has played, it is not all that impressive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-26 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. MDTS has no significant injuries and RB Jordan Parker is a back with the style and power that has been difficult on the Marshall defense. In most games, Marshall has built a lead and has not had to be concerned about a solid ground attack. I strongly believe the RB duo of Parker and Whatley will be a dominant factor in MDTS covering this generous number.

10* graded play on Arkansas State as they host LA-Lafayette in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This is a very important game for both teams in the Sun Belt Conference and to become bowl eligible. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas State (AS) will win this game. The SIM projects that AS will rush for 200 to 250 yards and will score 28 or more points. In past games played over the past three seasons, AS is a perfect 8-0 ATS when the rush the ball for 200 to 250 yards and are 17-4 ATS when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-3 mark for 89% winners using the money line since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams scoring >=440 YPG and after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game. This system has averaged a DOG PLAY of +115. Take Arkansas State.

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 33-8 ATS since 2002 for 81% winners. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) that are poor rushing team averaging between 70 and 95 RY/game and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 RY/game. Here is a second system that has gone 120-70 ATS for 64% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. SIM projects that Carolina will gain between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards/attempt, that t Rams will have less than 75 rushing yards, that Carolina will gain more than 125 rushing yards, and will outgain the Rams by ay least 150 total offensive yards. In past games, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 14.5 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 7.5 and 8.0 ne passing yards/attempt. Panthers are 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons, and 52-15 ATS since 1992 when gaining more than 125 rushing yards, and 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 19-5 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained the opponent by 150 or more offensive yards. Rams are just 5-10 ATS over the past three seasons and 25-55 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 1-10 ATS the past three seasons and 19-71 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 75 rushing yards; 1-5 ATS the L3 seasons and 7-17 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 150+ total yards. There are several matchup favoring the Panthers, but the biggest one is in the passing attack against a very banged up Rams secondary. Newton's go-to man has been Steve Smith and defenses have been able to reduce his impact. Newton's QB rating is just 70 when throwing to Smith placing him 65th of 93 qualifying QB. The two other receivers I strongly believe will have big days and will in turn open up man coverage for Smith are Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. Newton's QB rating is a robust 114 when targeting this duo and grade higher than Randall Cobb or Brandon Marshall. Featuring these two receivers will open up the entire field for the Carolina offense. Take Carolina.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a battle for first place in the NFC East set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. As a suggestion you can add a 2* play using the money line to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) and is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 46-18 ATS for 72% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. Much attention has been on the severely injured Dallas Cowboys. However, the Eagles defense is a highly suspect group and are going to be on their heels most of the game. Dez Bryant has emerged as one of the game's bets and most prolific playmakers. On passes thrown to Bryant, Tony Romo has a QB rating of 129.4, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. On the 53 passes thrown to Bryant he has 34 receptions, six touchdowns, and none of the balls have been intercepted. He has also become a more reliable pass catcher. In 2012, he dropped 10.7% of the catchable passes thrown his way. So far this season, Bryant has dropped just two catchable passes, bringing his percentage down to 5.6%. McCoy is arguably the most important offensive player in the Eagles offense. he leads the NFL is rushing yards and the Eagles offense is first in the NFL overall. Ware is out for the Cowboys and the Eagles will certainly look to get the ball in McCoy's hands often. However, I see the Cowboys doing a great job defending McCoy and forcing Foles into using his arm to move the chains.With Ware out, players like inside linebacker Sean Lee, outside linebacker Bruce Carter, and defensive tackle Jason Hatcher will be able to offset the loss of Ware today. Lee ranks fourth among inside linebackers at RSP, making 21 stops in 129 run snaps and has the physicality to tackle McCoy in space. Carter and Hatcher both rank in the Top 15 in RSP at their respective positions and will also be very active. Romo is doing a great job with progressions and setting up favorable matchups. he is well protected by an OL with two players grading in the Top-15 in the NFL. Eagle blitz means Bryant and others will be in man-coverage. Take Dallas

10* graded play on Florida State as they take on the Clemson Tigers in a huge ACC showdown set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS for 79% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (FLORIDA ST) that is a solid team outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games. 18 of the 26 winners or 69% covered the spread by 7 or more points. FSU is coming off a most impressive 63-0 win over then-ranked 20th Maryland two weeks ago and have had the full 2 weeks to prepare for Clemson. FSu offense ranks third in the nation scoring 53.5 PPG, fourth averaging 563 yards-per-game, second with an 0.767 points per play ration, and 2nd averaging 8.1 yards-per-play. Although Clemson ranks well with their offesnive stats, they are nowhere close to what FSU has done already and that they are a young team that will only get better. Tigers rank 17th averaging 28.6 PPG, 9th averaging 515 yards-per-game, 25th with a 0.478 points-per-play ratio, and 18th averaging 6.4 yards-per-play. Where the real difference lies though is the fact that the FSU defense is vastly better than the Clemson edition and is arguably the best defense in the nation. Given that both defense are elite in their own right it is imperative for the respective offenses to get some form of ground attack established to keep pressure off the QB. FSU has a tremendous advantage in this category and has a superior OL. FSU ranks ninth in the nation averaging 5.7 yards-per-rush, while Clemson ranks 70th averaging 4.0 yards=per-rush. I am confident that FSU will have far more success on first down then Clemson, and provides a substantially larger probability that FSU will move the chains far more often. FSU has the better OL and DL and even though he is a freshman, they have the better QB in Winston. He is 6-4 and 228 pounds and plays far beyond his years. Of note, is the last time FSU won in Death Valley was 2001 and they started a freshman quarterback. Sometimes, freshman are just not intimated by the situation and I believe that FSU will have a dominating performance.

10* graded play on the Auburn as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. I love the advantages that Auburn has running the ball. I would expect them to attack the A&M suspect defensive front with 45+ rushing plays. SIM shows a very probability that Auburn will gain 300+ rushing yards. In past games where Tigers have gained 300+ rushing yards, they are a solid 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 17-5 ATS since 1992. A&M is an imperfect 0-9 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 300+ rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (AUBURN) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. As already mentioned the power ground attack from Auburn will serve to run down the physicality of the A&M defensive front and will force them to go to man coverage. That is where play action will be a great opportunity for big gains. Take the Tigers.

10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Seattle in NGL action set to start Thursday Night at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ARZ will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing the game as an 8.5* play getting the points and a 1.5* unit play using the money line. Another option if you are increasingly bullish on this idea is to simply play a 10* amount using the line and add a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-10 mark using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 Dog Play since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (SEATTLE) that are excellent rushing team averaging >=150 RY/game) and is facing a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Arizona is solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games since 1992. What I see here in this matchup is the ARZ defense containing the ground game and Marshawn Lynch. The Seattle OL is banged up and has not graded well, especially last week. Lynch is having a another solid season forcing 29 missed tackles and 285 of his 485 rushing yards coming after contact. However, ARZ LB Brinley leads all NFL LB's in run defense grade. Shaughnessy is next and ranks very high as well in this category. I am confident you will see secure solid tackling from ARZ tonight and will force Russell Wilson into 2nd-and-long situations. ARZ has just 6 missed tackles in their last three games. Wilson needs the ground attack to be effective and leads the NFL using play-action 38% of the time. ARZ knows this and play-action is not nearly as effective in long-yard situations. ARZ RB Andre Ellington will have a big game tonight as he has speed/quickness advantages against the Seattle matchups. He will be used all over the field lining up as WR, slot WR, RB. Palmer will look to get the ball to him in space and let him make plays to gain max yards after the catch. I also believe Mendelhall's pounding ground attack will be successful enough to keep pressure off of Palmer. He obviously needs to have a better game tonight and I believe he will. Take Arizona.

10* graded play on UL-Lafayette as they take on Western Kentucky in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ULL will win this game. I prefer playing this 10* Titan as an 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to exploit the potential for the upset win. LA Lafayette is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has gone 23-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Take UL-Lafayette.

10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFC action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will win this game. The Chargers are banged up, but QB Rivers has been sensational so far this season completing a remarkable 74% of his passes. Even last week in an 'off' game he threw for 411 passing yards and completed 70% of his throws. This is not a fluke and it is not because he is completing a lot of short dump-off passes. In fact, he has increased his average depth of target ratio from 7.8 in 2012 to 8.5 in 2013. Even more impressive is that he has decreased his average time to release by 0.32 seconds in 2013. So, he has more or less adopted many of the passing techniques an dreads that ahs made Peyton manning so incredible. Rivers is also showing some great accuracy with the deep ball as well. He has a strong group of receivers and this allows him to spread the ball all over the field and forces defenses to not double team any WR. Antonio gates will see a lot action tonight with many routs targeting the greatest weakness in the Colts interior LB defense. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO) and are excellent offensive teams gaining >=5.8 YPP and is now facing a team with a poor defense allowing between 5.4 to 5.8 YPP, and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 16 of the 24 winning plays based on this system covered the spread by seven or more points and this under scores my strong belief that the Chargers will win this game fairly comfortably. Take the Chargers.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by three or more points. After last week's loss and having scored just 6 points, the Patriots offense will rebound in a very big way against a suspect Saints defense. SIM projects that Brady and Co. will gain better than 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, and will rush for 125 to 150 yards. In past games, the Patriots are 16-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 6.0+ yards per play and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 125 to 150 rushing yards. The ground attack will be easily attainable today for the Patriots and this opens up the whole playbook to Brady in play action situations. I also believe Thompkins will have a huge day in the vertical game for the Patriots. The Saints have one of the worst grading run blocking OL in the NFL. Even before Wilfork went out to injury, Tommy Kelly was the best interior lineman on the Patriots. He hobbled out after a third goal and he was clearly missed when the Bengals stuffed the ball into the end zone for the winning TD. Brandon Spikes is playing great football and is coming off a career best grade in last week's loss. He is one of the best run stopping LB in the game right now. For NE, Ridley will be back and I expect him to have a strong day running behind the fourth best run blocking OL in the NFL. The Patriots can and will stop the Saints ground attack, but the Saints will be overpowered by the Patriots ground attack. Patriots will have a huge edge in TOP and that keeps Brees off the field. Take the Patriots.

10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the 49ers-Cardinals game and a 10* play on the 49ers set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game and that the 49ers will win this game by 13 or more points. Obviously, the matchups I have studied favor the 49ers to dominate this game. ARZ is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. SIM shows projections calling for ARZ to have less than 75 rushing yards and that they will be outgained by 2+ yards per play. In past games, ARZ is just 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 9-29 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 2+ YPP and the 49ers are 12-2 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards. 49ers are 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when out gaining their opponent by 2+ YPP. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-21 record for 71% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Supporting the Total play 'UNDER' is a system that has gone 26-5 'UNDER' for 84% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ARIZONA) and is off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog and is now facing an opponent off a home win. So, Play 10* SF, 10* 'UNDER' and a 5* parlay SF+'Under'.

10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they host Philadelphia in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I have to admit, I have never had to consider the very infectious MRSA ailment as a possible reason not to play on a team graded by my SIm and supporting game research. Obviously, I feel confident in moving forward with the release. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 51-23 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) off a double digit road win and after the first month of the season has been completed. Much media attention is on the Eagle offense with Vick having a hamstring injury and backup Foles now the starter - possibly for the next several weeks. My research shows that it will be the Eagles defense that will be the main problem preventing them from winning the game and getting back to the -.500 level. I actually believe Foles is the best suited QB under the Chip Kelly spread offense scheme after watching Oregon play on the West Coast for years. So, despite that 'positive development coming out of the Vick injury, it is the Eagles defense that is vulnerable to large numbers of points each week. Revis will be matched up against Jackson and I do not see Jackson having another great game. Jackson also started a war of words stating earlier in the week that Revis could not stay up with him in the speed department. Revis chose not to enter into the war of words, but obviously that is bulletin board material for the entire defense. Jackson has been targeted 26 times this season while the rest of the Eagle WR have been targeted 48 times. The Bucs can use man coverage with Revis ro they can bracket Jackson allowing Revis to jump any slant routes, knowing he has deep help if the play is a double move one. So, with Jackson minimized to a degree, it will allow the Bucs defense to play very aggressive and get pressure on Foles. In last week's win over the Giants, the Eagles interior offensive line played poorly and the Bucs will look to bring pressure up the gut more than perimeter. This pressure will be excellent against zone runs by RB McCoy as well. Take the Bucs.

10* graded play on California as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will lose this game by 23 or fewer points. Cal has gone 0-5 ATS and as a result this line has been vastly inflated against a strong performing UCLA team. Cal gas played a very strong schedule, which has been one of the toughest in the nation so far. After all the analysis, I just don

10* graded play on the Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game certainly has upset alert written all over it. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rebels will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* graded Titan with the points and then adding a 3* play using the money line to play for the upset. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-7 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) off a road loss and with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. Rebels return 19 of 22 possible starters with 9 on offense (including the QB) and 10 on defense. Simple to see that this will be an old fashion shoot out and Rebels are a near certainty to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-66 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a contest. Moreover, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season and 3-10 ATS over the past three seasons when both teams score 28 or more points. Rebels rank low in TOP, but this is actually a reflection of the strong and powerful offense. A&M matches up horribly poor against teams like the Rebels noting they are just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games when facing ball control teams averaging 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Add to this the fact that A&M is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 3 seasons. Last, but not least, Rebels have played a far more difficult schedule than A&M. A&M has played just one team in Alabama that has truly tested them while Rebels have played just one 'scrimmage' against SE Missouri State in Week 2. Their other opponents have been Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn. This also marks just the second home game of the season and you can bet the home fans and student body will be more than ready to support their team. Take Mississippi.

10* graded play on Penn State as they host No. 16 Michigan in Big Ten action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will win this game and the 2 1/2 points they are getting is a real gift. PSU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. SIm projects that PSU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in a game. I also like how PSU defense, especially the front seven matches up against Michigan in this game. The SIM also confirms this projecting that Michigan will not gain more than 300 yards of offense. In past games, Wolverines are just 13-27 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 300 offensive yards. Breaking this projection down, it shows Michigan to gain an average between 4.0 and 4.5 yards per play. In past games, Michigan is 0-2 ATS the past three seasons and 13-30 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-19 mark for 63% winners using the money line and has made 27.1 units per unit wagered since 2007. It has averaged a +144 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (PENN ST) after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Penn State.

10* graded play on Air Force as they take on San Diego State in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent shot at getting a home upset win. I like playing this as a 10* play getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. AF got permission and approval from the government to resume all sports activities. Navy and Army are back in business with their sports programs as well. I won't get into just how rediculous Washington looks, well not Washington, but the politicians that we entrust the day-to-day operations of our country. SDST is coming off a shootout with Nevada winning 51-44 and covered by the 'hook'. However, such big offensive games often times lead to letdowns in the next game. SDST is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. AF has lost five straight games, but has played a stronger level of competition than SDST. This seasoning will benefit AF in this matchup and they know this is a game they can win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-7 mark for 78% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) and is off a big home win scoring 38 or more points and sporting a losing record. It has gone a perfect 6-0 over the past five seasons. Take Air Force.

10* graded play on the NY jets as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Much ash been made about the woes of the Jets, but it is actually the Falcons, who have the disjointed lines right now. The Falcons have the tow worst starting tackles in the NFL in Holmes and Baker. They rank horribly low in pass block efficiency ratings. They have added Jeremy Trueblood, but he is average at best. As a unit, the Falcons rank 29th in PBE and that is not going to get the job done against a very strong Jets defensive front. They Jets have one of the best three-man frons in the NFL with Sheldon Richardson, NT Harrison, and Wilkerson, who is off to an average start to the season. I fully expect him to lift his game tonight under the MNF lights. So, Atlanta will be reduced to a pass-only offense very quickly in this game. The Jets secondary will have to play better and I expect Cromartie to grade high tonight after several very poor games. Not many will agree with me right now, but I definitely see the Jets being able to run the ball on the ground tonight. I like the matchups they have for this success and this will take immeasurable pressure off of Smith and allow him to use play action to hook up for big gains in the vertical attack. He already leads the NFL with 12 completions of greater than 25 yards totaling 433 yards. This threat will eliminate the Falcons ability to bring 8-men to the box. Atlanta is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. SIM projects that the Jets will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, Atlanta is just 3-6 ATS the past three years and 20-38 ATS since 1992 when having allowed that range of rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 2002. Play on any team (NY JETS) that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG and after a loss by 21 or more points. This system has gone 11-1 ATS over the past five season. Take the Jets.

10* graded play on the SF 49ers as they take on the Houston Texans in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?79-39 mark for 67% winners since 2002. It is 4-1 ATS this season. Play on favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) in non-conference games that are off a win against a division rival. SIM projects that SF offense will be in gear tonight and will average more than 6.0 yards-per-play will gain between 350 and 400 offensive yards. In past games, SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 350 and 400 offensive yards and are 15-3 ATS when gaining more than 6.0 yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Houston is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 6.0+ yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Kubiak is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games off a home loss as the coach of Houston. There was no more impressive OL unit in the league last year than the 49ers

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Carolina QB Newton is coming off a huge performance the most lop-sided win in the franchise's 19-year history. Adding to the public's irrational betting on Carolina is the fact they are coming off a BYE as well. A supporting 'indicator' is that better than 75% of all best are being made on Carolina. Whenever I see 70% bets on one team at the 12 different books I monitor, than it is an immediate red flag. The majority of my plays will be against the public flows, but not all. Bottom line is that I relay on my SIM for all projections and for all 10* graded plays. The following research, betting flows, systems, and game situations serve to reinforce and support the graded play by the SIM. Arizona is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992; 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. Week 5 is becoming the week when suspended players return from their off-season transgressions and Arizona gets back a major part of their defense in Daryl Washington. The inside linebackers have struggled against some of the better TE in the league. Washington will provide immediate help in coverage and pass rush situations. Combined with their best defensive player, Paterson, this defense takes on a much stronger look that I believe Cam Newtown will struggle against. Another factor in this game is that Arizona traded their starting LT, Levi Brown, to Pittsburgh and this puts Bradley Sowell in the LT position protecting Palmer's blind side. Interesting to note, that he played for Arians before and they did pick him up off waivers from Indy. That alone, gives me the confidence that HC Arians believes Sowell is better than Brown and will do a great bob in run blocking and pass protection. Take Arizona.

10* graded play on the JAX Jaguars as they take to the road to play the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Jacksonville reminds of a stock that just keeps getting hammered lower in price as each week passes. That stock finally reaches a severe oversold condition at which point, the stock rallies sharply. That is exactly where I find JAX for this game. I fully expect Maurice Jones-Drew to have a huge game as St. Louis ranks 26th allowing 4.6 RYPC, 24th facing 29 rushing plays per game, 30th allowing 133.5 RYPG. St. Louis rushing attack is even worse then their run defense. They rank 31st in the NFL gaining just 2.6 YPC and last averaging just 47.2 RYPG. STL is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after being outgained by 150 or more total yards 2 consecutive games since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-11 mark for 78% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that ahs gone 27-7 ATS for 79.4% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more, a terrible team posting a <=25% win percentage and now playing a team with a losing record. This system has gone 14-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the past five seasons. In the battle of two very weak teams, this is just far too many points to ignore. Take JAX.

10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Notre Dame in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET in Arlington Texas. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. ASU has one of the most potent offenses in the nation and rank 15th in the nation averaging 499 yards per game. They attack through the air, but their running game has to be respected as well. They are not just a one dimensional team as in year's past and I just don't see how ND is going to be able to hold them to less than 500 offensive yards. The SIM projects that ASU will gain more than 500 yards. In past games, they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 9-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ yards. There is an even higher probability that ASU will score more than 28 points and this has not been good news for ND in past games. ND is just 0-2 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-60 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Arizona State.

10* graded play on the TCH as they take on Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play 'OVER' the posted total. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has a reasonable probability of pulling off the upset win. TC is projected by the SIM to have at least 28 points on the scoreboard. In past games this has not been good news for backers of the Sooners noting they are just 0-9 ATS the past three seasons and 11-59 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points in a game. I also believe this will be a shootout and that favors TCU. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS the past three seasons and 11-25 ATS since 1992 when both teams score 18 ore more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-19 mark using the line and has made a whopping 45 units/unit wagered since 2002 averaging a +303 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line (TCU) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The money line for this game is just below 300 so consider an optional 3* parlay playing TCU with the ML and the 'OVER'.

7* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. LSU is coming off a very physical and highly emotional loss at Georgia last week and is will be very difficult for them to take this opponent with the same focus they had for Georgia. LSU is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; HC Miles is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of LSU. SIM shows projections calling for MS to attain 400+ yards in total offense and average 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. In past games, LSU is just 9-23 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 total yards and 10-22 ATS when allowing 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. This is State's shot at LSU and they know it.

7* graded play on Colorado as they host Oregon in PAC-12 matchup set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 36 points. Yes, this is a mismatch, but getting just far too many points. What matters most is that this is a 7* graded play from my SIM and should be played accordingly and with discipline. I also believe that Oregon is looking ahead to their showdown with Washington next week and will be taking starters out of the game once they get an insurmountable lead. RB De'Anthony Thomas is already going to miss this game with an ankle injury so it stands to reason Colorado, at some point, will be matched up against second and third team units. Take the Buffalos.

10* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 3;30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at a big upset road win this afternoon. GT is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after playing a Thursday game since 1992. Extra rest and prep work is a huge plus for GT. Miami has been dominant in their last two games, however, they are just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. GT is coming off a game where they forced no turnovers in their loss to V-Tech. They also struggled to run the ball and having to pass 24 times is just not their style of play that wins games. However, coaching is a big factor at the Collegiate level and HC Johnson is a remarkable 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GT; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. 70% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on a road team (GEORGIA TECH) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Take Georgia Tech.

7* graded play on UMASS as they play Bowling Green in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (MASSACHUSETTS) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders', and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 or less points/game. Over the past three seasons, this system has gone a solid 7-1 ATS. This system reflects the irrational exuberance being shown by public bettors backing Bowling Green. The public sees the records of each team and that UMASS is not scoring points. What they don't see is the vastly more difficult schedule UMASS has played to date. UMASS, by comparison, has played a more difficult schedule than many of the Top-25 ranked teams. They played at Wisconsin and at K-State with home tilts playing Maine and Vanderbilt. So, I expect the UMASS offense to have afar easier time moving the ball against Bowling Green and will certainly score enough points to cover this inflated spread.

10* graded play on Utah as they host UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. UCLA may be ranked and has the 12th best statistical offense, but Utah at 3-1 has played a vastly more difficult schedule. They have defeated Nebraska on the road, but even that is a bit of stretch to qualify for a strong win. They had two other scrimmages against Nevada and New Mexico State. Now, they face a seasoned Utah team that has a very powerful offense too. UCLA has a stable of RB and will be getting back Thigpen for this game adding to their depth. Yet, I just don't agree with the line favoring UCLA and do strongly believe that Utah is the better team, especially on the defensive side. SIM shows a high projection calling for Utah to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, UCLA is just 5-10 ATS the past three seasons and 30-71 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-8 mark for 72.4% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +165 Dog play. Play on a home team using the money line (UTAH) that is off an upset win as an underdog and when playing on a Thursday. As we know Thursday is a showcase night with both teams having extra rest equating to a BYE week. Utah has had this extra time to prepare for UCLA and I am confident their defensive scheme will contain the UCLA attack. The history is not on the side of UCLA either as they have had a miserable time for the past 20 years facing very strong offensive teams. They are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Utah ranks 20th in the nation averaging 6.4 YPP and this has been against a much better schedule than UCLA, who ranks eighth in the nation averaging 7.1 YPP. Take Utah.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they host the Buffalo Bills in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by 6 or more points. These are two teams fresh off wins installed as home dogs. The Hoyer era has yet to be fully quantified and valued by the public and I strongly believe this team can continue to play well and cover spreads. Buffalo needs the presence of RB CJ Spiller and he is not anywhere close to a 100% for this game. The worst injury a RB can have where he can still manage to play is the ankle. They rely on quick bursts and cuts to gain yards and Spiller's lack of lateral movement will be evident in this game. The Browns defense is playing very well and I believe they will contain and even shutdown the Buffalo offense. Even with the trade of Richardson, the Browns OL is doing a great job in run block schemes. The SIM shows a projection calling for the Browns to gain 100 to 125 rushing yards. In past games where they have achieved this ground game success they are a solid 7-1 ATS over the past three years and 31-15 ATS dating back to 1992. A strong running game sets up play action pass plays for Hoyer to attack vertically with Josh Gorden. I think that is what was initially forgotten that when Richardson was traded, Gorden came back from a suspension and he is arguably one of the best skill players in the league. Buffalo is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Take Cleveland.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a battle of unbeaten teams set to start on MNF at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at staying unbeaten. The fact that this game is being played in NO is more than offset by the fact that Miami has played a vastly more difficult schedule to date. Miami has defeated Cleveland and Indy on the road and won their home opener in Week 3 against Atlanta. Saints have defeated Atlanta and Arizona on home tilts while defeating the Bucs on the road. This will be their most difficult test to date, but they are riding a huge wave of confidence led by QB Tannehill. Their last offensive drive was when Tannehill recorded his first last-minute comeback victory against the Falcons engineering a 13-play, 75-yard drive he capped with a 1-yard TD pass to rookie tight end Dion Sims with 38 seconds remaining. Those are the types of plays and drives that brings team chemistry fully together and can lead a team to the playoffs and beyond. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-105 mar for just 45% winners, but has made 54 units/unit wagered since 1983. This system has averaged an incredible +186 Dog play. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after outgaining previous opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The Saints are doing a much better job getting pressure on opposing QB's. The Saints defense has sacked or put opponents under duress on 29.5 percent of drop backs this season, sixth in the NFL. Last season the Saints put quarterbacks under pressure on 19.4 percent of drop backs, 27th in the NFL. However, Tannehill is making quick and correct decisions in his progressions and rarely holds the ball more than 3.0 seconds. So, the Saints pressure may be a mute point. Also, The Saints QB Brees has gone to TE Jimmy Graham a ton in the first three games. Of note is the fact that has caught 17 of his 23 passes this season when starting the play split out wide. No Saints wide receiver even has 17 total receptions. Last, but not least, Tannehill ranks best in the NFL completing 63% of his passes beyond 10 yards and this will expose the weaknesses in the Saints underneath coverage. Take the Dolphins.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to face the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. Last week we saw the Patriots stumble out of the blocks and Tampa Bay fail to capitalize of that fact. The result was not just an easy NE win, but we also saw the Patriots start to gel on offense. OC McDaniels and HC Belichick are arguably the best tandem in NFL history in maximizing offensive schemes to match the personnel. The Patriots have two very talented and highly skilled WR in Thompkins and Dobson get on the same page as their QB. The results have to be scary for any DC in this league having to face what will be an ever improving offense. In past seasons, the Patriots ran a base '"12" offense which is 2 WR, 2 TE, and 1 RB that opened up holes in the defense for Brady to exploit. The personnel is vastly different so the Patriots are adapting and using an "11" base scheme with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. The first two weeks, the receivers did not get consistent separation from their defenders, but they started to do so in Week 3 against a sound Bucs defense. Atlanta is banged up on both lines and I don't see how they will be able to pressure Brady for four quarters. We all have seen what happens to opponents when Brady has more than 3 seconds to throw the ball and I strongly believe that is what you will see in this game. Here are some game situations supporting the Patriots. They are a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games facing a solid offensive team averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. Take the Patriots.

10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Baltimore Ravens in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at recording the mild upset win today. The parity of the NFL allows teams to have bounce back weeks after poor showings. There are always exceptions, but Buffalo is in a prime bounce back situation. They will be getting Spiller back at RB and I believe that this ground attack will be very successful against the Ravens defense that ahs not allowed a TD in 2 straight games. Buffalo is on a nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?114-74 mark making 51 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (BALTIMORE) that are off a home win by 10 points or more, with the current game taking place in the first half of the season. Here is a second very strong money producing system that has gone 22-15 for just 57% winners, but has made a whopping 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +198 dog play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (BALTIMORE) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders', an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG. This system clearly reflects the parity of the NFL that on any given Sunday any upset can happen. Baltimore has a decent ground game and may get Ray Rice back in the lineup. Whether he plays or not, the SIm projects that the Ravens will get between 4.0 and 4.5 YPC in this game. In past games, Buffalo is an amazing 15-2 against the money line (+13.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992. Take the Buffalo Bills.

10* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Arkansas has a very strong and improving ground attack. They rank 8th running 69% running plays, 47th averaging 4.6 YPC, 18th averaging 47 rushing attempts per game, and 29th averaging 217 rushing yards per game. I strongly believe that A&M is very vulnerable to the ground game and will be forced to bring 8 men into the box to try and stop this attack. This will set up man coverage on the perimeter and offer play action as a big gain play. A&M ranks 119th allowing 6.0 YPC and 99th allowing 211 rushing yards per game. Arkansas is a solid 1-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992. A&M is just 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. SIM shows a very high probability that Arkansas will score 28 or more points. In past games, A&M is just 3-10 ATS the past three seasons and 20-65 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Take Arkansas.

10* graded play on Georgia as they host LSU in a huge SEC showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 5 or more points. Georgia is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after outgaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Turnovers ebb and flow over the course of a season. Every year teams who have enjoyed early season turnover advantages will lose the turnover battle and fail to cover and win games. This has been the case at every level of CFB and Miles is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of LSU. This is not to predict that LSU will be turnover prone, but rather there is a significant probability that Georgia will win the turnover battle or that turnovers will not be a factor. That situation clearly favors and supports Georgia. SIM shows that Georgia will score between 35 and 41 points. In past games, Georgia is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 23-4 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 35 and 41 points. LSU is just 1-14 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed this range of points. Take Georgia.

10* graded play on the Central Florida as they host South Carolina in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Both teams are coming off a BYE week so there is no advantage with rest for either team. However, I do believe the extra time UCF has had for preparation is a huge factor. Arguably this is one of the biggest games for the UCF program and by winning this game can take a big step forward in recruiting for next season and beyond. Here are some game situations supporting the play on UCF. They are a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. O'Leary is a great coach and will undoubtedly have his team completely ready for a big effort today. He is also 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. A pivotal number in CFB has always been 28 points. The SIM shows a high probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games, they are 3-0 ATS this season, 14-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 60-22 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. By contrast, SC is just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 18-61 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?37-7 mark using the ML and has made 28 units per unit wagered since 2002. Play on a home team using the money line (UCF) with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game and after a win by 3 or less points. Take UCF.

10* graded play on BYU as they host Middle Tennessee State in CFB action set to kick at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by 27 or more points. With the big line, this portends to a complete physical mismatch on both sides of the ball. It is true, that BYU is in the sandwich game between Utah State and Utah, but that will have little impact on their focus to play extremely well tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-5 ATS mark for 84% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game and after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Turnovers run in ebbs and flows and many times after a two+ game streak of enjoying the To edge, these teams will then be subject to a negative turnover position. Such is the game of football at any level. Moreover, this is a HUGE stretch in heightened competitive levels for MTS. They have played opponents vastly weaker than what they will experience tonight from BYU and they are on the road. The speed and athleticism that BYU brings to this game cannot be matched even remotely in MTS practices. SIm projects that BY will allow 14 or fewer points, will score more than 28 points, and will outgain MT by at least 200 offensive yards. In past games, BYU is 8-4 ATS the past three seasons and 57-16 ATS since 1992 when they allow 14 or fewer points. They are 11-3 ATS the past three years and 88-50 ATS since 1992 when the have scored 28+ points in a game. They are 8-2 ATS past 3 seasons and 41-10 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained an opponent by 200+ yards. MTS is 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 4-16 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 200+ yards. Take BYU.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the SF 49ers in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a solid shot an upset win tonight that would send the 49ers season into near chaos. Kaepernick is not a progression passer right now. His develop is still on a huge learning curve and he will overcome this in the second half of the season. He takes the snap and looks down one receiver and if covered he pulls out of the pocket far too soon. His quick decision making to abandon the pass play and get to his hot reads makes it very difficult for the OL to provide effective protection for him. The Rams defense is pretty darn good right now and I do believe they will focus on stopping the run and force Kaepernick to make plays with his arm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-25 mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (ST LOUIS) -after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. Here is a ML system that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) -that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing >=27 PPG and after a loss by 14 or more points. Even though the Rams defense has given up points, they match up well against the 49ers, who rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 14.9 PPG. I like the Rams.

10* graded play on the Iowa State as they take on Tulsa in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 mark for 83% winners since 2008. This system has averaged a +110 dog play and is also a very nice 14-3 over the past three seasons using the ML. Play on road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (IOWA ST) with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. Simple to follow and very profitable. Here is a second system that has gone 23-6 for 79% winners since 2002 and has gone a perfect 6-0 making 6.7 units/unit wagered over the past five seasons. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TULSA) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and is now matched in game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Tulsa returns just three starters on defense and this is the glaring advantage that I believe Iowa State will enjoy in this game. Iowa State QB Sam Richardson is nursing an ankle injury, but is listed as probable for this tilt. The Iowa State offense ranks 50th in the nation averaging 251 passing yards per game. Through 2 games, 12 different players have got balls with Richardson connecting on 44-of-71 pass attempts for 62% completions and a solid 139 QB rating. I certainly see the Iowa State offense being significantly better than Tulsa's offense and I believe the Iowa State defense is better as well. So, I get the better offense and the better defense and a DOG. Tulsa QB Cody Green is just 55-of-106 for 610 passing yards and a 105.8 QB rating. He is averaging just 5.76 YPP and has thrown 3 TD with 2 interceptions in three games. Take Iowa State.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by four or more points. Atlanta is banged up both sides of the ball and will have numerous second and third players on the depth chart in starting roles today. This is always a difficult situation for any NFL team. Adding this many new players into starting roles makes communication and chemistry very erratic and inconsistent. Moreover, the line has been going up over the last few days, yet the percentage of bets being made is clearly on Atlanta. This reflects a very strong large amount of small bettors taking Atlanta and the large, so-called 'smart-money', is on Miami. Normally, I look for 70% or higher extremes in betting imbalances as another tool. All of my research, fundamentals, technical matchups, and game situations serve only to reinforce the SIM graded opportunity. Miami is projected to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, Miami is 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three season, and 61-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring within this projected range. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. I like adding a 1* play using the money line to augment the 10* play using the line. One of these teams will be 0-3 and essentially playing for pride. The Browns made a shocking trade dealing RB Richardson to the Colts for next year

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by three or more points. This line opened much tighter than I had anticipated and the public is just all over the Giants. Whenever I get a pubic reading of 70% or higher, it is certainly a red flag for the team being backed. The SIM is the dominant reason we are making ANY play, but betting consensus can reinforce that grading when we are against the 'public'. I do think far too much weight has been given to betting consensus and smart money analysis over the past few seasons. I only want to point out that when levels of irrational exuberance are reached it is a supporting factor. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?44-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line (NY GIANTS) and is a terrible defense from last season that allowed 360 or more total yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 44-22 ATS for 67% winners since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (NY GIANTS) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. I just don't see how the Giants defense is going to hold up against the Panthers ground attack. The SI shows a high probability that Carolina will have 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, the Giants, are just 3-5 ATS the past three seasons and 21-52 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. This type of projection is applicable to nearly all NFL teams. In this league is very difficult to win when getting torched on the ground. It then sets up play action, in this case for a very mobile QB, and puts immeasurable pressure on the secondary. Take Carolina.

7* graded play on the Connecticut Huskies as they host the Michigan Wolverines in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 21. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?63-29 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CONNECTICUT) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Experience in CFB is a huge factor in the outcome of games in the first month of the season. The team chemistry, particular on the OL where communication is paramount to the solid execution of the offensive scheme, is a significant advantage for any team. UCONN has gone to a hurry up offense after a very dismal season in 2012. They have returned 8 starters including their QB. T.J. Weist, and are executing the offense at a high level that I believe will cause Michigan fits on defense. SIM shows that UCONN will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS over the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when allowing this range of scoring. Take UCONN

10* graded play on Indiana as they take on Missouri in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Indiana Hoosiers will win this game. They are currently installed as 1 1/2 point dogs and I strongly believe this line will push towards pick-em. This normally would be a concern on a Thursday as I am writing this, but the movement has been generated by large 'smart money' wagers. In fact, 64% of all best being made are on Missouri, which would normally send the line higher. This is solid proof that the large bettor is on this game. Remember that the grading by the SIM is the dominant reason why are on any play. The research, game situations, systems, betting flows serve only to reinforce the play. We only have a small 3-game sample size, but Indiana has so far proved to have a very strong passing attack that currently ranks 11th in the nation averaging 7.4 yards-per-play and 10.1 yards-per-pass play. Missouri head coach, Pinkel, is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/attempt. He is also just 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Indiana has a well-balanced offensive attack that is going to be very tough for Missouri to contain. Here is a supporting system using the money line that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +120 DOG play since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (INDIANA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing between 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games. Take the Indiana Hoosiers.

7* graded play on Auburn as they take on LSU in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Auburn and LSU are both off to 3-0 starts with Auburn having played a vastly more difficult schedule. LSU is loaded with talent, but they have yet to play a 'real' competitor. They have beaten TCU, UAB, and Kent State. On eof my favorite plays is when a DOG, who has been seasoned by average to tough opponents is playing an elite team that has yet to play any meaningful games. The Speed of a competitive game cannot be replicated in practice and LSU has had essentially three scrimmages to date. Auburn has played Washington State Arkansas State and Mississippi State. Not Yop-10 opponents, but much more respected football programs than LSU's resume. SIM shows that Auburn will score at least 28 points. LS is just 11-50 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a game. Auburn is also projected to gain average of 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. LSU is just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 10-22 ATS since 1992 in games where they allowed this range. Miles is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games as the coach of LSU. I truly believe this game could be very close, so if there is a money line available I would recommend taking a stab in the dark and placing only a 1* amount to augment the 7* play. Take Auburn

10* graded play on the North Carolina as they take on Georgia Tech in ACC action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at getting a very important road conference win. I like playing this as a 10* getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. You may remember that these two programs met last year and engaged in the highest scoring game in ACC history. Georgia Tech won that game 68-50 and there is a bit of revenge for UNC entering this tilt. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-33 record for 46% winners and has made 51 units/unit wagered averaging a +300 DOG play since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (N CAROLINA) that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 to 28 PPG and is now facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. I love these types of systems, but remember they only serve to reinforce the grading produced by the SIM. These systems are analogous to the very popular Black Jack casino game. However, the big difference is that in a casino you essentially get 1:1 odds save the 3:2 Black Jack payout. However, in this system you are getting paid an average of +300 per 'hand' played. So, based on this system, playing Black jack would have netted a loss of $500 playing $100 per hand. The system, though made you a big time winner producing a profit of $5100.00. More importantly, it underscores one of the most important handicapping tools I will always use and have learned over my 19 years of handicapping. DOGS must be identified as winners ATS. The betting flows show that more than 73% of all best placed are on Georgia Tech and anything above 70% shows an irrational exuberance by the public in thinking that Georgia Tech will easily win this game. My research clearly points the other way and I strongly believe UNC will win ATS. Best of Luck!

10* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will win this game. I like adding a 2* amount getting at least +130 using the money line for this 10* graded play. The Eagles defense has been torched the past two games. If not for some bad breaks in the red zone, the Chargers would have had arguably 10 more points and the game would not have ever been close. Although a small sample size, the Eagles defense ranks 28th allowing 30.0 PPG, 30th allowing 461 YPG, 28th allowing 6.2 YPP, 25th allowing 48% third-down conversions, and 25th allowing 69% pass completions. KC offense ranks 9th getting 3.0 TD's per game, 7th gaining 4.5 yards-per-rush, and are disciplined ranking second with 32.5 penalty yards per game. The high powered quick flowing Eagle offense has been a crippling factor for the defense, who has to play 56.36% of the game time. Eagles are dead last in TOP in the NFL. CB Carey Williams has been torched and the secondary is a bit banged up with Fletcher and Boykin (nickel back) listed as probable with minor nicks. The Eagles play a base 3-4 defensive scheme that has many holes and weaknesses entering this game. Reid is a great game planner and will have a game plan that will constantly keep the Eagles defense off balance and will use play action pass a ton to exploit blitzes and man coverage situations. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. 55% of these winning plays covered by at least 7 points and under scores why I believe KC will win this game. SIM shows a high probability that KC will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. KC is a rock solid 40-15 against the money line (+24.6 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards since 1992. Take Kansas City.

10* graded play on North Carolina State as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Here are some game situations supporting NC State. Wolfpack are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners making 25 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against road favorites (CLEMSON) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second style that has gone 70-30 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (NC STATE) that are off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less with the game taking place in the first month of the season. This system has gone 14-4 AYS over the past three seasons. Both teams have not played since September 7. Clemson defeated Georgia in Week 1 and then played a scrimmage against South Carolina State. The NC State defense has the ability to contain the Clemson ground game. They key is get the Tigers into second-and-long and third-and-long situations by getting a stop on first down. Another factor is that better than 75% of the bets being made have been on the Tigers. Whenever I get a reading of 70% or higher it is a red flag for the team being bet. Levels at 70% and above show an increasing irrational exuberance in betting any team, especially a ranked one like Clemson. Take North Carolina State

10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in AFC North action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 8 or more points. SIM shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Bengals are 7-0 ATS when they have allowed between 75 and 100 rushing yards in games played over the past three seasons. The biggest mismatch in this game is in the trenches where the Bengal defensive front should be able to control the Steeler OL completely. Kelvin Beachum is making his first start at Center for the Steelers replace the pro bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Bengals defensive line that averaged 3.21 sacks per game is back and better than ever before. QB Roethlisberger has never been mobile and he will be under constant pressure in this game. The Bengals lost their starting left tackle, but new starter Anthony Collins held Chicago's all-world defensive end Julius Peppers in check. A.J. Green has averaged 62 receiving yards per game when playing the Steelers. His career average is a strong 80.3 per game and he is arguably one of the best WR in the AFC right now. The veteran Ike Taylor will be responsible for shadowing him and it may be a very long night for him as I don

10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. Last week, the Eagles rank 53 plays in their first half win against the Redskins while Seattle ran 51 plays for the entire game in their 12-7 win over Carolina. Point is that I don't see how the Seattle offense will be able to keep pace with the 49ers offense. It is a fact that Seattle has a very strong defense, but I strongly believe that Kaepernick will have a another big day passing the ball. SF is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?63-31 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) after a game where they committed no turnovers. Here is a second system working against Seattle and has produced a 71-37 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) after scoring 14 points or less last game. SIM projects that SF will have more than 150 rushing yards and will gain better than 350 total offensive yards. In past games, the 49ers are a stout 11-5 ATS the past three seasons and 69-25 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for more than 125 yards. 49ers are 7-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 47-21 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 350 and 400 total yards. Take the points and the 49ers.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Oakland Raiders in AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like playing this game as a 7.5* play using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?104-54 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. Plat against home teams (OAKLAND) off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. SIM shows a high probability that JAX offense will get in gear against a highly suspect Raiders defense. SIM shows that JAX will score 22 to 28 points an din past games achieving this range of points, they are 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 55-20 ATS since 1992. Chad Henne will start today in place of the injured Gabbert. I am very confident in stating the offensive chemistry will be far better given the matchup. Jones-Drew will have a solid day running and catching the ball and this will inevitably set up play action pass plays for Henne to target WR Shorts in man coverage. Oakland corners are going to be tested by the athleticism of Shorts, who I feel is a budding star for the JAX team. Oakland also uses a 4-3 base scheme, which will open up underneath passes to Jones-Drew and quick hitting slants to Shorts. I like JAX a lot in this game.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rams will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given these favorable projections for our DOG, I like playing this with an extra 2* amount using the money line. Atlanta got off to a strong start in Week1, but failed to execute for 60 minutes and allowed the Saints to slip by with the win. Atlanta is just 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Rams are coming off a well earned win over Arizona, but failed to cover by a 'hook'. HC Fisher is a solid money making 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off a home win against a division rival in all games he has coached since 1992. I also believe the injuries to WR Julio Jones and Roddy White will hamper the Falcons offense and they are facing a vastly under rated Rams defensive unit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-9 mark using the money line for 72% winners and has made 19 units per unit wagered averaging a +120 dog play since 1992. Play on any team using the money line (ATLANTA) off a road loss against a division rival and is now facing an opponent off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. What I like most about the Rams in this matchup is the strong running game. The Rams OL blocked very well last week allowing Richardson to have a strong game. This presence will force Atlanta to respect the run first. It will then set up QB Brafford in play-action pass routes. Pettis was targeted 6 times last week and had three catches. This week I believe he well could be the targeted preferred pick in play action situations with Given on the other side stretching the defensive secondary. Take the Rams.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a meaningful probability of pulling off an upset. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-23 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2002. Play against favorites (BALTIMORE) that was a struggling defensive team from last season that allowed 5.4 or more yards/play and is now playing a division opponents. With Richardson in the backfield, I believe that Cleveland will gash the Baltimore defense for a big day. SIM projects that Browns will have between 100 and 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Browns are a solid 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and 30-15 ATS since 1992 when the have gained 100 to 125 rushing yards. An additional piece of data shows that slightly more than 70% of the best being made at the Books I track are on the Ravens. By itself, this has always been a red flag and a supporting piece of data when the SIM has the other side. I also will suggest adding a 2* amount using the inflated money line to take advantage of the possible upset win by the Browns. Take Cleveland.

10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Wisconsin in CFB action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. Wisconsin has played two vastly inferior foes outscoring them 93-0. However, they are taking a big step up playing PAC-12 power ASU tonight in the dessert heat. ASU played an inferior foe in Sacramento State last week, but they are at home and they are the ones that Wisconsin must try to contain and not the other way around. ASU runs a spread offense that has tremendous speed and quickness. That is a very tough assignment for Wisconsin to prepare for as the speed cannot be duplicated in practice sessions. This is reflected in the fact that ASU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Big 10 conference opponents since 1992. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. HC Graham is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?73-30 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Here is a second system that ahs gone 66-30 ATS for 69% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) after a win by 35 or more points. SIm projects that ASU will gain an average of 5.0 to 5.5 total yards per play and will allow between 150 and 200 net passing yards. In past games ASU is 23-8 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 5.0 to 5.5 YPP and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 25-5 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards. Take ASU.

10* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a shot at a shocking upset win. I like adding a 1* amount to the money line to take advantage of the possible upset. Vandy is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. It will be the Vandy offense that will be the dominant force in this matchup. SIM shows a high probability that Vandy will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are 13-2 ATS the past three seasons and 40-12 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?96-40 mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play against a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 39-10 for 80% winners using the money line since 2002. Play against a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game and now facing opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. Both systems under score the high probability that SC will be taking this game for granted. They are coming off a bruising, highly emotional, and mentally exhausting loss to Georgia. Even with the great experience and coaching of Spurrier, it will be very difficult to get his team to take on this game with the same focus used last week against Georgia. Take Vanderbilt.

10* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Oregon in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 28 points. The betting flows have steadily been on Oregon all week and I do believe working a line at 28 1/2 is worthwhile. Now, I do not believe we will need the 1/2 point at all, but it never hurts to work that extra 'hook' especially on major numbers like 28. This line opened at 21 and the public has pushed this number into the area of irrational exuberance. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2007. Play against any team (OREGON) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing <=16 PPG and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. almost half of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and 60% of the winners covered by 7 or more points. The Oregon defense ahs yet to be tested and I strongly believe that Tennessee will be able to orchestrate long time consuming scoring drives. They have two RB in Neal and Lane that are averaging better than 6.7 YPR combined for 7 TD. QB Worley is a solid decision maker and will be able to spread the ball around to as many as 7 WR/TE/RB. This will keep the Oregon defense on their heels and allow Tennessee to march down the field. Take the Volunteers.

10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on new Mexico in CFB action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by 24 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?42-9 ATS mark for 82.4% winners. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and 64% of the winning plays covered by seven or more points. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (PITTSBURGH) off a bye week. Nothing like an additional week of practice and study to make for a very solid effort in the next game. This system is also on a 9-1 ATS tear the past three seasons. New Mexico defense will be no match for the Pittsburgh offense. The SIM projects that Panthers will average better than 10 net passing yards per attempt, will score more than 28 points, will gain 7.5 yards-per-play, and will allow between 200 and 250 yards. In past games, Pittsburgh is a solid 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 29-7 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 10 or more net passing yards per attempt. They are 6-3 ATS the past three seasons and 59-32 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points; 13-4 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed between 200 and 250 offensive yards and are 2-0 ATS the past three seasons and 11-1 ATS since 1992 when they have averaged 7.5 or more yards per play. Take Pittsburgh.

10* graded play on Air Force as they take on Boise State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by fewer than 21 points. Boise State is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2002. Play on a road team (AIR FORCE) in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters, in the first month of the season. 51.4% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. 65.5% of the winning plays covered by 7 or more points. Experience is a huge factor in the first month of the season and Boise is searching for chemistry and an identity. They were hammered by a strong Washington Huskie team and then last week beat up on a vastly inferior Tennessee-Martin football program. Those two games against extreme levels of competitiveness do little to help prepare Boise for this game against Air Force. Take the DOG!

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Jets in NFC East action set to start at 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, September 12, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 14 points - yes even with the injuries to the Patriots offensive unit. Rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted 14 times Sunday but caught four passes for 42 yards. It was a sure case of nerves and I fully expect him to be targeted the same amount again in this game. With Vareen on the DL now until Week 11, Thompkins and Edelman will me the go to guys for Brady. Let's not forget that the Patriots can run the ball and Ridley will be a huge part of that attack as well. Patriots are a resounding 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. SIM shows that NE will gain 5.5 to 6.0 Yards per play and will score between 22 and 28 points. NY Jets are just 2-6 ATS the past three seasons and 19-53 ATS since 1992 when the have allowed 22 to 28 points and are 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 17-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. Patriots have a strong history of overcoming injuries and tweaking their offense to fit the personnel. Further, no one is better at the LOS in identifying mismatches than Tom Brady. Lay the Lumber!

10* graded play on Tulane as they take on Louisiana Tech in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 12, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game in upset fashion. I like playing this with an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. After guiding the nation's top offense in points (51.5 PPG) and yards (578 YPG), head coach Sonny Dykes moved onto Cal, allowing Skip Holtz to lead a heavily-depleted offense in the post-WAC era. However, they return just three starters on offense and just four on defense. Although Tulane was one of the worst teams in the nation and are coming off a horrid 2-10 season, I am expecting them to be far more competitive. They return nine on offense and will have to choose a QB starter between Devin Powell (4.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT) and JUCO Nick Montana, son of Joe Montana. I'm not concerned on the starter given the 9 returning starters and their shared experience going up against a newly formed defense. LT HC Holtz is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?remarkable 24-16 mark for 60% winners using the money line and has made 39 units per unit wagered averaging a +230 DOG play. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (TULANE) that was a poor rushing team from last season averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry and after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. This system serves to support the grading produced by the SIMulator and confirms my belief that Tulane is the right play. Take Tulane.

10* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET and will be televised on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Redskins will win this game by seven or more points. I see this game a little different than most others. New HC Chip Kelly has brought his high powered fast paced offense to the NFL, but will it work at this level. At the collegiate level, loaded teams like Oregon can exploit multiple weaknesses in an opponents defensive scheme. At the NFL level, those advantages become very hard to find based on the opponent. The Eagles may think they have an advantage playing fast against Washington and wearing down their defense. Yet, it may work the other way around if he is not careful. Washington will start two rookies on defense with safety Bacarri Rambo and CB David Amerson. No doubt you will see Washington use nickel schemes the majority of the time and will be doing a fast paced style of substitution of their own, especially in the secondary, where switching players can ben much easier. Amerson will not get beat deep by Eagle WR Jackson and has tremendous closing speed and quickness. I believe Jackson may become a non existent weapon if Washington uses a bracket coverage scheme against him. Vick is allowed to run the ball freely this season, but he is over 30-years old and just not big enough to absorb the big hits seen in the NFL. Vick may have learned the system in the preseason, but he is not a good reader of decoy schemes that bate him into mistakes. Mo offensive system can prevent a QB from making incorrect decisions leading to punts or turnovers. Now, the biggest advantage I see in this game is the Washington offense against the Eagle defense that has just gone from a 4-3 to 3-4 scheme. Eagles offense will play fast, which implies they will not be able to control the clock and gain an edge in TOP, which is a huge factor in the NFL. The Eagle defense is suspect to begin with and if they have to spend more than 30 minutes on the field, they are the ones that will be gassed - no the Redskins defense. Alfred Morris could have a HUGE night fort those interested in fantasy matchups too. There is no defense strong enough to contain RG III in play action situations. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Redskins 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus division opponents as the coach of the Redskins. SIM shows that Washington will gain a minimum of 8 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, Philadelphia is just 1-10 ATS the past three seasons and 14-37 ATS since 1992 when allowing 8 or more net passing yards per attempt. SIm shows that Redskins will gain 150 or more rushing yards. Eagles are 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 25-55 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 or rushing yards. Redskins are 9-0 ATS the past three seasons and 45-9 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 8 or more PYPA and 9-4 ATS the past three seasons and 58-24 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for more than 150 rushing yards. Take the Redskins.

10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. if you can land a money line, then I would add a 1* amount to this play looking for the shocking upset. SIM shows a projection calling for the Raiders offense to get between 22 and 28 points. They are 5-0 against the money line (+7.3 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders have had not had a steady reliable QN since at least 2007. They may have one in Pryor. He has been taking first-team snaps at the Raiders' practices, according to multiple reports. Matt Flynn, who was competing with Pryor for the starting job, missed practice last week with a sore arm but was available this week. In two seasons with the Raiders, Pryor has appeared in four games. He made one start last year, when he completed 13 of 28 passes for 150 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the season finale at San Diego. Pryor can certainly make big plays and his mobility will diminish the fact that the Raiders are down to their fourth left tackle. I believe you will see RT Khalif Barnes move to LT and newly signed Tony Pashos will take on RT responsibilities. With Pryor under center it also enables the Raiders to exploit a highly suspect Colts defense using some pistol formations and use McFadden in more diverse runnign situations. Establishing the run and using the pistol will setup play action for Pryor to hit a Denarious Moore. He is certainly a bright sport for the Raiders after spending the off season getting focused and working out very hard. Reminds me of that Vernon Davis situation in San Francisco, who was simply lazy, and then finally 'got it'. Moore has the speed, quickness, and athleticism that makes it nearly impossible for any Colts defender to handle him in man situations. Take the Raiders.

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Seattle Seakhawks. Interesting that Seattle would be in a tough game the first week of the season when most prognosticators and media talking heads say Seattle will win the Conference and the Super bowl. I actually believe that Seattle will lose this game based on the game situations and SIM projections. Seattle HC Carroll is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road favorite in all games he has coached since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in the first month of the season. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by less than 3 points. I like adding a 1.5* amount using the money to the 10* play using the line. So, if you are playing a Dime on the line then add no more than $150 bucks on the money line. The SIM shows that Carolina will have a strong running attack and Cam Newton will be a part of that either by design or by his ability to extend plays. They are projected to have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, Carolina is a solid 12-3 ATS the past three seasons and 51-15 ATS since 1992 when they have gained at least 125 rushing yards. Carolina si projected to score 22 to 28 points. In past games they are 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and a remarkable 53-13 ATS since 1992 when they score within this range of points. Take Carolina.

10* graded play on the Washington State Cougars as they take on the No. 25 ranked USC Trojans in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. WSU went on the road to play an SEC team and played well. They lost to Auburn 31-24 and covered as 14 point dogs. Turnover s were a huge part of the game and WSU had 3 to Auburns one. WSU was inside the Auburn 10 yard line when the game ended, so they truly did match Auburn stride for stride. What this was, was WSU

10* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on BYU in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by 10 or more points. The SIM shows a projections that Texas will score at least 28 points and will hold BYU to fewer than 20 points. In past games, BYU is a money burning 22-74 since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points and 11-27 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 29 to 35 points inclusive. BYU is 10-28 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 20 or fewer points. Other projections of equal value show that Texas will have between 100 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, Texas is a solid 8-0 ATS and 12-3 ATS when the score 28 or more points spanning games played over the past three seasons. Texas won 56-7 and covered as 43 points favorites. They amassed a balance attack of 715 yards with 359 gained on the ground and 356 gained through the air. They did have three turnovers and HC Mack Brown has a strong history of addressing those problems so they do not become a continued problem for the offense. In fact Brown is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers as the coach of TEXAS. BYU is coming off a tough loss at UVA 19-16 and failed to cover as 3 1/2 points favorites. Take the Longhorns!

10* graded play on the North Texas as they take on Ohio University in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that North Texas will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at getting a significant road win against the Bobcats. North Texas returns 17 starts with 9 on offense and 8 on defense. Ohio returns just 5 starters on defense and I strongly believe that the North Texas offense will be able to consistently exploit the Ohio U defense and in particular their secondary. North Texas won big in Week 1 with a 40-6 drubbing of Idaho and easily covered as 16 1/2 point favorites. North Texas HC McCarney is a solid 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a win by 21 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-23 record using the Money Line and has made 43 units/unit wagered averaging a plus 265 DOG play since 2008. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTH TEXAS) after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, returning 8+ offensive starters and is facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters.

10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they host the Baltimore Ravens in the first game of the 2013-14 NFL season set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 5, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. The media would like you to think that revenge is a factor in this game, but once the game begins, Denver will be led and focused by the 37-year old Peyton manning. No doubt, the team and especially the Bronco fan base remember the last year's playoff game loss to the Ravens. It was a very painful one, where they were leading by 37 seconds and Flacco had the ball on their own 30 yard line. The next play saw Flacco connect on a 70-yard touchdown pass after a blown coverage assignment and the Ravens went on to win 38-35 in double overtime. It is a 16-game season and Denver will have a ton of emotion loaded up for this game. SIM shows projections that Denver will outgain Baltimore by 50 to 100 yards and that Denver will gain more than 400 offensive yards, In past games, Denver is 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gain more than 400 offensive yards. Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS the past three seasons and 6-22 ATS since 1992 when the have been outgained by 50 to 100 offensive yards. Take the Broncos.

10* graded play on the Pitt Panthers as they host Florida State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and actually ahs a shot at a shocking upset win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?89-33 mark using the Money Line and has made 70 units/unit wagered since 2003. Play against a road team using the money line (FLORIDA ST) and is a good passing team from last season that averaged 255 or more passing yards/game and with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season. Pitt is now in the ACC and in the coastal conference so not much is expected form this first year of play. However, FSU lost a ton of personnel to the NFL draft including their QB EJ Manuel. FSU also had a loss of several players to academics and suspensions making me believe this team just is not together in the locker room. QB Jameis Winston will be the starting QB and will have a strong running game behind an experienced offensive line. Yet, the biggest loss was on defense where the entire defensive front had to be replaced. This included the loss of ACC sack leaders Werner and Carradine. Their new DC, Jeremy Pruitt built a great defense at Alabama, but to duplicate that achievement will take a few seasons at FSU. Pitt can run high percentage ball control pass plays and coupled with the running game can then set up the aggressive FSU defense in play action. Take Pittsburgh

10* graded play on the Louisville as they host Ohio University set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by more than 24 points. There has been a lot of hype associated with the Louisville program entering this season and many times that hype can get the public enamored with that team and inflate betting lines. Not the case here at al as I strongly believe Louisville is a team that is significantly better than advertised. They return their starting QB, but the real strength of this team may prove to be their defense where 10 of 11 starters return. Ohio is a strong program in their own right, but they are stepping up a level in competition and facing a defense that will arguably be the fastest and quickest they will face all season. SIM shows a high probability that Louisville will gain more than 9 net passing yards per attempt and will score more than 28 points. In past games, Louisville is a solid 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 40-15 ATS since 1992 when they gain better than 9 net passing yards per attempt. Moreover, they are 8-2 ATS the last three season and 87-40 ATS since 1992 when they score 28 or more points. Take Louisville.

Please note that I revamping the grading ladder for my plays. The former 25* Titans are now 10* Titans for CFB, the NFL, upcoming NHL, College Hoops, and NBA. We are getting away from the hype related to attracting sales and focusing more on the methodologies that have made money for clients for 19 seasons. Moreover, the 10* play correlates far better for the Dime Player and the hundred dollar per game player. 10* graded play on TCU as they take on LSU in CFB action. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making an 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. I like the experience of 8 returning defensive starters TCU has entering this game. Although LSU simply reloads, they are returning just four starters to their defense and TC, who returns 7 starters including their QB, will be able to execute and sustain time consuming scoring drives. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?losing record 92-111 mark for 45% winners, BUT has made 75 units/unit wagered averaging a +202 Dog Play. Last season, this system went 12-13, but made an impressive 7.9 units in profits. Here is a system based on the line that has gone an impressive 29-6 ATS for 83% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) in the first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is a team that had a winning record last season. LSU offense ranked near the bottom nationally in passing and NFL vet Cam Cameron was brought into make positive changes with the personnel they have this season. Again, I strongly believe that TCU's experienced defense will be very successful in defending any new wrinkles that LSU may show in this game. TCU is extremely fast and quick, but their biggest asset is that they maintain gap discipline. TCU is ranked 20th and a win over 12th-ranked LSU will be another huge step forward for this football program. Take TCU.

10* graded play on Eastern Illinois as they take on San Diego State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that EI will lose this game by fewer than 13 points and has a very real chance at winning this opening game of the season. I like playing this with an added 1* amount using the money line to compliment and augment the potential total rate of return. I worked on Wall Street with my last position being Chief Currency Strategist so I know all about what Total Rate of return means. It is not much different between identifying investment opportunities in the market versus sports wagering. Buyers and sellers are akin to play on and play against wagers with the book being the market maker and taking the juice between the bids and asks. I will be providing more on the mathematics of Total Rate of Return in Sports Wagering so look for them on the site. Fresno State is projected to be the MWC Champion with SDST pushing them hard in the second spot. As you already saw, this conference may be a bit over rated with Fresno State needing OT to defeat a pesky Rutgers squad Thursday night. Rutgers was one of my two 10* Top rated CFB Titan winners along with Bowling Green, who massacred Tulsa. EI is coming off a 7-5 record in the Ohio Valley Conference and second year head coach Dino Babers now has his program heading toward challenging for a second consecutive OVC Championship. Teams, like EI, that play a competitive opening schedule benefit greatly when going into conference play. I really like the defensive matchups that I believe EI will have in this game. Look for Senior and 3-year starting defensive back Houlihan to have a big game. He was fourth on the team with 78 tackles and is the igniter for the defense with his fiery play. Also, on offense, I believe the size advantage that EI will have over the Aztecs will be noticeable. EI may have 6-foot3, 250 pound Athans under center. He is a very talented player that can play well at any position along the line including TE. So, although there will be a large crowd in attendance given the areas multiple celebrations, I believe EI can take this game into the fourth quarter with a chance to win.

Please note that I revamping the grading ladder for my plays. The former 25* Titans are now 10* Titans for CFB, the NFL, upcoming NHL, College Hoops, and NBA. We are getting away from the hype related to attracting sales and focusing more on the methodologies that have made money for clients for 19 seasons. Moreover, the 10* play correlates far better for the Dime Player and the hundred dollar per game player. 10* graded play on LA-Monroe as they take on Oklahoma in Saturday CFB action set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. The SIM projections and matchup tendencies show that the Sooners will have their hands full just to get away with a Week 1 win. LA-Monroe has a mountain of experienced players coming back and with strong Senior leadership. They return eight starters on offense including the QB and return all but two starters on defense. Sooners with a new QB will be prone to mistakes leading to turnovers. I strongly believe they will have at least three turnovers. In past games, LA-Monroe is a perfect 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 19-8 ATS since 1992 when they have forced three turnovers. Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS the past three seasons and 11-31 ATS since 1992 when committing three or more turnovers. Every CFB season, I have at least one 20+ point dog win a game outright. I always like taking advantage of the ML whenever possible with these huge dogs knowing that at least one of them will hit during the season. I would recommend only a 1/2* unit play using the ML on LA-Monroe - if you can get it.

10* graded play on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they take on Fresno State in CFB action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like the favorable projections calling for the upset winner too. Although a relatively small percentage it does warrant adding a 1* amount using the money line. The pace of play should favor Rutgers as this will not be a shootout type of event. Rutgers is a solid 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?47-256 mark using the Money Line for 64% winners since 1992. Play against a home team using the money line (RUTGERS) that is a team from a major division 1-A conference and is now facing a team from a second tier conference with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. The SIM projects that Rutgers will have at least 100 rushing yards in this game. I strongly believe it will be a whole lot more based on the matchups. Rutgers is a perfect 7-0 ATS when they have gained between 100 and 150 rushing yards in games played over the past three seasons. Take Rutgers.

10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Tulsa in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, August 29. The simulator shows a high probability that Bowling Green will win this game by 7 or more points. First, you have already noticed that 10* is the Highest Rated play and is exactly the grading that the once 25* plays were. In terms of money management and playing the SIM graded games in the most optimal way, a max of 10* will produce the best results and with the least amount of hype. I have been handicapping for 19 seasons and I can honestly tell you that if you make a commitment to get ALL of my NFL and CFB plays you will have the potential for a very big bottom line at the end of the season. From week to week there will be losses and some will be ugly, but if you take the long-term big picture approach you will grind out profits over the course of the seasons - for any of my sports. What I like most about this play from the fundamental side is that BG returns 10 starts, including the QB, on offense and nine on defense. Tulsa brings back 7 with their QB on offense and just THREE on defense. This is where I see the experience and chemistry that the BG offense will have over a rebuilding Tulsa defensive unit. The SIM shows that BG will contain the Tulsa offense to les than 5 net passing yards per attempt and that they will gain 300 to 350 total offensive yards. In past games, BG is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the past three season and 26-7 since 1992 when they have allowed less than 5 net passing yards and are 6-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 27-11 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 300 and 350 offensive yards in a game. Take Bowling Green

30* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 3, 2012 The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by six or more points and I am confident in stating that if the projections from the sim become reality on the field, then the 49ers will win comfortably by double digits. The biggest advantages for the 49ers are the running game and the run defense, both of which are superior on both sides of the ball to the Ravens editions. 49ers defense has allowed more than 100 yards in just two of the last nine games. They did allow 176 rushing yards to the Seattle Seahawks in their worst played game of the year December 23, 2012. Against GB they allowed 104 rushing yards on 16 carries, but there were two large runs contributing that total when the game was already decided. Baltimore defense has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense runs the ball 44% of all plays called this season, rank 12th in the NFL averaging 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, 10th averaging 123.5 rushing yards per game. The 49ers run the ball 51.5% of all plays called and rank second averaging 5.3 RYPC, and third averaging 164.6 RYPG. I just do not see the Ravens being able to contain the power running game generated by the read/option with Gore

30* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on Baltimore in the AFC Championship game set to start at 6:30 PM ET in Foxborough Massachusetts. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that is a strong team outgain opponents by 40 to 100 YPG and is now facing an average team sporting a +/- 40 YPG differential and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Sim shows a very high probability that the Patriots will gain more than 400 offensive yards. In past games, they are 8-2 ATS this season, 21-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 67-24 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 400 or more offensive yards. Sim shows that Baltimore will be outgained by 50 to 100 yards and are just 0-3 ATS this season, 0-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 5-22 ATS since 1992 when this has occurred in a game. Moreover, Belichick is a solid 37-14 ATS (+21.6 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games; 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) avenging a loss against opponent; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) avenging a same season loss against opponent. Baltimore

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will cover the spread and has an excellent shot at winning and advancing to the NFC Conference Final in San Francisco next Sunday. Lynch is banged up with a foot injury, but will play in this game. The sim shows a very high probability that Seattle will gain at least 125 rushing yards and will score 28 or more points. In past games, the Seahawks are an impeccable 5-0 ATS this season and 14-0 ATS over the past three seasons, and 73-11 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points and are 8-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons and 58-26 ATS since 1992 when rushing for greater than 125 yards. Atlanta is 0-3 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 26-90 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-20 record using the money line and has made 34.2 units per one unit wagered since 1983. Play on road teams using the money line in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average play has been a +187 dog. Lynch is the key to this game as he has been all season. He has had 11 games rushing for more than 100 yards and I strongly believe he will have 125+ rushing yards in this game. This sets up the rest of the offensive attack for QB Wilson, who has steadily developed into a very good play action passer. Golden Tate has excellent speed and quickness and will have matchup advantages for Russell to exploit. Atlanta

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 4:30 PM ET, Saturday, January 12. 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by eight or fewer points. I had the Ravens as my winning 30* Wild Card Game of the Year release. It stands to reason they would pop up on the simulator radar again this week. I like playing this with a combination bet placing 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-63 mark for 47% winners using the money line and has made a whopping 70.3 units per one unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +242 dog play. Play against favorites using the money line that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards per game and after out gaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second money line system that has gone 30-14 for 68% winners and has made 18.5 units per one unit wagered since 2002. Play on any team using the money line that is a solid offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and now facing a solid defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and after 8+ games and after allowing 9 points or less last game. Several criteria to this system, but the results speak for themselves and the components made sense. Denver

30* graded play on the Alabama Crimson Tide as they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish set to start at 8:30 in the BCS Championship game. The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 13 or more points. Much has been written about the outstanding NT Nix of the Irish. he is a monster and arguably one of the most difficult linemen to move off the ball in the nation. I am not concerned that he will be matched up up against C Barrett Jones of Alabama. Jones is very quick off the ball for a C and I just don

30* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card first round of the AFC playoffs set to start at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 6, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark for 73% winners since 2002. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a second supporting second that has produced a 37-13 mark for 74% winners since 1983. Play against any team off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. 27 of the 37 winning plays covered the spread by seven or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Baltimore will win this game by double digits. Coach Harbaugh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. Colts are just 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Ravens are a solid 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. Baltimore rested Ray Rice in Week 17 and they always play near or at peak levels when he is the focus of the offensive scheme. Although the Ravens have not used Rice out of the backfield as a receiver, the matchups almost necessitate this to occur. Rice has tremendous advantages against the Colts linebackers and be used as a targeted play or as a check down when the pocket does break down. Ravens QB Flacco has had an inconsistent season, but has proven to be at his best in the no-huddle scheme. This does not mean a hurry up 2:00 style of scheme, but one where they line up immediately after the ball has been spotted and then call the play based on what the defense is showing. This prevents Colts from freely substituting and can wear down any defensive unit. Colts have a huge defensive weakness covering TE this season. The Ravens are adding to that weakness by using Rice out of the backfield or even lined up as a slot receiver in an empty backfield. Luck has proven to be the real deal and will be an NFL star for years to come. no team in the NFL threw more vertical routes than the Colts, but here again this plays into the strengths of the Ravens. The Ravens safety Reed is one of the best ever to patrol centerfield and he can negate the vertical routes or will make interceptions. It will be very difficult for the Colts to run the ball and stretch the defense with the vertical routes. Take the Ravens.

25* graded play on Kansas State and a 20* graded play OVER the posted total in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas State will lose this game by fewer than seven points, that more than 80 points will be scored and that K-State has a very real chance at winning the game SU. Given this huge opportunity, I am going to suggest playing this as a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Then a 20* play on the total and a 5* parlay using K-State with the Money Line and the OVER. Here are some game situations. K-State is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when facing good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. K-State is a rock solid 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. Oregon is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last 2 seasons. K-State is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Oregon is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows an extremely high probability that K-State will score more than 28 points. In past games, they are 7-1 ATS this season, 19-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 96-42 ATS since 1992 when scoring more than 28 points in a game. Supporting the 20* OVER play is a proven system posting a 90-38 record for 70% winners since 2002. Play OVER with any team against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. 63 of the 90 winning plays went over the posted total by a minimum of seven points. best of Luck to everyone on this mammoth opportunity.

25* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Louisville Cardinals in the BCS Sugar Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by 17 or more points. If you got my first BCS winner on Florida State you remember the disparity in athleticism between FSU and NI. That same disparity exists in this game as well. I truly believe, that if there was a four-team playoff this year, that Florida would win the National Title. My work clearly shows that they are the best and most complete football team in the nation and have played the schedule to support that fact. The SOS between the two programs is vastly different with Florida having played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Louisville was undefeated at 9-0 until getting crushed at Syracuse 45-26. The hangover continued into the next week losing to UCONN 23-20 at home and were installed as 10 point favorites. They won the Big East Championship game against Rutgers 20-17 and covered as 3

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 17 or more points. FSU held seven opponents to season low offensive outputs and I believe that the same result will take place to the Huskies. It is truly an honor for the sled dogs to be the first MAC team to earn a BCS bid, but now the school and entire conference will learn how strong and deep these elite programs have been for decades. FSU is accustomed to BCS Bowls and 24 of their players herald from South Florida. So, this is

25* graded play on the Purdue Boilermakers as they take on Oklahoma State in the Heart of Dallas Bowl set to start at 12:00 Noon New Years Day. The simulator shows a high probability Purdue will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Out of the 124 FBS football programs, the Cowboys rank 120th allowing 304.3 passing yards per game and 123rd with opponents attempting an average of 44 passes per game. Purdue has the aerial attack to exploit the Cowboys secondary and will be a major reason why this may end of being a very competitive single digit game in the fourth quarter. Purdue may be just 6-6, but they rank 37th attempting 37 passes per game, 66th averaging 229 passing yards per game, and 59th completing 60% of all pass attempts. It will be very important that the Purdue defense makes the Cowboys run as many plays as possible to score points. Cowboys rank seventh averaging 41.1 PPG, fifth gaining an average of 537 yards per game, and second averaging 6.8 yards per play. Purdue wideouts O.J. Ross and Antavian Edison have excellent hands and run