Central Michigan vs New Mexico State

3:00 PM EST, Saturday, October 12, 2019

10-Star Bet is on CMU minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that CMU will score 28 or more points and will outgain NMEXST by 1.0 to 1.5 yards-per-play (YPP). In past games in which CMU has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 8-1 SUATS record covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points. 

When NMEXST has allowed their opponent to meet or exceed these projections, they have been a college-fund draining 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average 8.7 points. 

This situational query has earned an incredible 33-11 ATS record good for 75% ATS winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Play on home favorites that are off an upset home win of 14 or more points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season. 

New York Giants vs New England Patriots

8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 10, 2019

7-Star Bet is on the Patriots

The machine learning summary projects that the Patriots will score 27 or more points, pass for a minimum of 8.0 yards-per-attempts, and will allow the Giants less than 350 yards of offense. In past games where the Patriots have scored 27 or more points and averaged 8.0 YPPA they have earned a 100-6 SU record winning the games by an average of 18.8 points and 87-19 ATS for 82.1% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 13.3 points. 

If we add the defense holding the opponent to fewer than 350 offensive yards their record improves to an amazing 52-0 SU and 48-4 ATS for 92% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 18.1 points. 

Green Bay vs Dallas

4:25 PM EST, Sunday, October 6, 2019

10-Star Bet is on Dallas minus the points

The ground game will be dominated by the Cowboys and will allow them to control the LOS, the clock, and keep Rogers off the field. The Cowboys rank fifth in rushing offense while the Packers are  dreadful 26th. Dallas ranks 10th-best stopping the run while the Packers can’t stop the run rnaking 26th in the NFL. 

Dallas will need to blitz gaps to stop the run and can play many different pass coverages that will bring confusion to even a veteran like Rogers. 

The machine learning summary projects that Dallas will out rush GB by at least 50 yards, will score 24 or more points, and will rush for a minimum of 1450 yards. 

In past home games where Dallas has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 58-5 SU record winnig the games by an average of 17 points and 61-2 ATS for 97% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 15.7 points. 

Jacksonville vs Carolina

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 6, 2019

7-Star Bet is on JAX Jaguars

The machine learning summary projects that the Jaguars will score 24 or more points, rush for at least 140 yards and put-rush the Panthers. In past road games where JAX has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 52-3 SU record winning the games by an average of 15 points and 48-6-1 ATS for 89% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 13.3 points. 

This situational query has earned a 42-17 ATS record good for 71% ATS winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on any team that has not committed a turnover in two consecutive games and is facing an opponent tat committed three or more turnovers in their last game. 

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 6, 2019

7-Star Bet is on the Jets plus the points

Jets are an outstanding 77-8-2 ATS 91% when scoring 20 or more points, gaining 125 or more rushing yards and out-rushing their opponent. 

Jets are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games

This situational query has earned a 36-13 ATS record good for 74% ATS winning bets over the last 30 seasons. Play on Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) that are struggling teams outgained by their opponents by 1.25 or more yds/play and after gaining 200 or less total yards-per-game over their last 2 games.

John Ryan Sports

Georgia Vs Tennessee

7:00 PM EST, October 5, 2019

10-Star bet on Georgia minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that Georgia will score 28 or more points, will gain a minimum of nine passing yards per attempt, and will hold Tennessee to fewer than 250 total yards and/or Georgia will have fewer turnovers than Tennessee. In past games where Georgia scored 28 or more points, gained 9 or more [assing yards per attempt, and had fewer turnovers than their opponent they have earned a 24-5 ATS for 83% winning bets and has covered the spread by an average of 12.5 points. 

This situational query has earned an outstanding 99-51 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on a road team after allowing 17 or fewer points in two straight games and is facing an opponent after a loss of 17 or more points. 

Arkansas State vs Georgia State

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 5, 2019

7-Star Bet is on Georgia plus the points 

This situational query has earned an incredible 30-5 ATS record good for 86% ATS winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 31 or more points in three consecutive games and facing an opponent that is coming off a game where they allowed 42 or more points. 

John Ryan Sports

Purdue vs Penn State
12:00 PM EST, Saturday, October 5, 2019
7-Star Bet is on PSU.

The machine learning summary projects that Penn State will score 28 or more points, pass for a minimum of 8.5 yards-per-attempts, and will gain at least 6.1 yards-per-play. In past home games where PSU has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 21-1 SU record and 18-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points.

This situational query has earned a 64-27 ATS record good for 70% ATS winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that is a dominant team out scoring their opponents by an average of 17 or more PPG and after scoring 50 or more points in the previous games.

John Ryan Sports

No. 15 UCF vs Cincinnati

Play on Cincinnati

8:00 PM EST, Friday, October 4, 2019

7-Star Bet is on the OVER

This situational query has earned an incredible 32-6 ATS record good for 84.2% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play OVER the posted total between 56.5 and 63 points in a conference matchup involving two strong defensive teasm allowing between 15 and 21 points-per-game on the season. 

Cincinnati is projected to score at least 28 points and in past games when they have, they have earned a 94-36 ATS record. 

John Ryan Sports

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints

8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 29, 2019

10-Star Bet is on the Saints plus the points

This situational query has earned a 47-17 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to simply play against road favorites that have been dominating their previous opponents by at least 10 PPG and after a win of 10 or more points. 

Here is a perfect 18-0 ATS betting system and requires us to play on teams in game splayed on artificial surface that are averaging 34 or fewer rushing plays per game and are coming off a road win as a dog, had 32 or fewer minutes in time of possession and is now facing a winning record team that has averaged 32 or more minutes per game. 

John Ryan Sports

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, September 29, 2019

7-Star Bet is on the Charger minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that the Chargers will score 24 or more points, pass for a minimum of 8.0 yards-per-attempts, and/or will gain at least 6.6 yards-per-play. In past road games where Chargers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 41-11 SU record and 42-10 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11 points. 

This situational query has earned an incredible 32-10 ATS record good for 76% ATS winning bets over the last 35 seasons. Play on road favorites that are coming off a loss as a favorite and is a struggling team with a win percentage between 25 and 40% on the season and is facing a team that has a losing record on the season. 

John Ryan Sports

Kansas City vs Detroit

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, September 29, 2019

7-Star Bet is on Detroit plus the points

The machine learning summary projects that the Lions will score 24 or more points and will gain between 375 and 425 total offensive yards. In past home games where the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 24-6 SU mark and a 26-4 ATS mark good for 87% winning bets and covering the spread by an average eof 10.2 points. 

This situational query has earned an incredible 31-9 ATS record good for 78% ATS winning bets over the last 35 seasons. Play against favorites that have an excellent offense averaging 5.7 or more yards-per-. play on the season and after gaining at least 450 total yards in each of their last two games.

John Ryan Sports

Arkansas State vs Troy
6:00 PM EST, Friday, September 28, 2019
7-Star Bet is on Arkansas State plus the points

The machine learning summary projects that Ark-State will score 28 or more points, pass for a minimum of 8.5 yards-per-attempts, and will gain at least 6.1 yards-per-play. In past road games where Ark-State has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 13-2 SU record and 11-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 9.1 points.

When Troy has been in a home game and allowed the opponent to meet or exceed these projections, they have been a college-fund draining 2-20 SU and 8-14 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average 9.5 points.

This situational query has earned an incredible 32-5 ATS record good for 87% ATS winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 yards-per-play (YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more YPP in their previous game and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP.

John Ryan Sports

Wake Forest vs Boston College

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 28, 2019

7-Star Bet is on Wake Forest minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that Wake Forest will score 28 or more points and will outgain BC by at least 1.7 yards-per-play (YPP) and/or have over 500 yards in total offense. In past road games where Wake Forest has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 5-0 SU record and 5-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 28 points. 

When Boston College has been in a road game and allowed the opponent to meet or exceed these projections, they have been a college-fund draining 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average 12.5 points. 

John Ryan Sports

Northwestern vs Wisconsin

12:00 PM EST, Saturday, September 28, 2019

7-Star Bet is on Wisconsin minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that Wisconsin will score 28 or more points and will outgain Northwestern by at least 2.0 yards-per-play (YPP). In past home games where Wisconsin has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 40-0 SU record and 27-13 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.8 points. 

When Northwestern has been in a road game and allowed the opponent to meet or exceed these projections, they have been a college-fund draining 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average 18.7 points. 

This situational query has earned an incredible 22-3 ATS record good for 88% ATS winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on any team that has won three consecutive games by 21 or more points in each one and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points in their previous game. 

John Ryan Sports

No. 12 Penn State vs Maryland

8:00 PM EST, Friday, September 27, 2019

Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD

The Bet is on Penn State minus the points

The machine learning summary projects that PSU will score 28 or more points, pass for a minimum of 8.5 yards-per-attempts, and  will gain at least 6.1 yards-per-play. In past road games where PSU has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 8-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 16.4 points. 

When Maryland has been in a home game and allowed the opponent to meet or exceed these projections, they have been a college-fund draining 1-7 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average 14.3 points. 

7-STAR ON THE GREEN BAY PACKERS (102) OVER THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES IN TNF ACTION SET TO START AT 8:20 PM EST. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Eagles will have less than 100 rushing yards, will have no more than 325 total yards, and will not score more than 21 points. In past road games where the Eagles have underachieved these performance measures they have posted an ugly 9-42-1 SU record and 18-34 ATS mark for 65% losing bets. The Packers are 65-4 SU winning the games by an average of 15.9 points and 50-18-1 ATS for 74% win if bets an covering the spread by an average of 8.8 points in home games where they have met or exceeded these performance measures. 

This situational query has earned a 52-21 ATS record for 71% winning bets for the past 35 seasons and is a perfect 11-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against underdogs including pick-em after having lost two of their last three games when playing Thursday nights. 

3-0 ATS teams playing in Week 4 are a perfect 11-0 ATS when facing a team that is 0-3 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11 points. 

7-STAR ON THE UNDER  AND 7-STAR CHICAGO IN THE MNF MATCHUP BETWEEN THE HOST WASHINGTON REDSKINS AND THE VISITING CHICAGO BEARS. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Redskins will not gain more than 75 rushing yards, will be held to 100 fewer yards in total offense than what Chicago will gain and will not score more than 17 points. In past home Redskins games where they under achieved or at the most met these performance measures the UNDER has gone 11-3 for 79% winning bets and covered the total by an average of 8 points. Further, the Redskins are an imperfect 0-13-1 ATS.

This situational query has earned a perfect 10-0 UNDER record since 2015. The UNDER is 10-0 with a winless home dog of 4.5 or more points in week 3 and further down the regular season schedule and are facing an opponent that has a win percentage of at least 0.500 on the season. 

So, play each of the 7-Stars separately and then add no more than 4-Star parlay playing the Bears minus the points and the UNDER. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE DETROIT LIONS AS THEY TAKE ON THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Lions defense will dominate and hold the Eagles to less than 75 rushing yards, gain 350 or more offensive yards, and have more offensive yards then the Eagles. In past games where the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 33-11 ATS record good for 72% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points. When the game was on the road they were an even better 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10.2 points.  

Eagles continue to sputter on offense in the beginning of games and rank dead last in the NFL scoring just 42 points in the first quarter since the start of last season. They will be without their two best receivers and are missing two starting defensive linemen. 

10-STAR WAGER ON THE OAKLAND RAIDERS (471) AS THEY TAKE ON THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST.

This situational query has earned a 34-11 ATS record for 76% winners over the last 10 seasons. It instructs us to play against home favorites that are solid offensive teams that averaged 5.4 or more yards-per-Play in the previous season and are coming off a game where they gained 400 or more total offensive yards. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Raiders defense will force at least two turnovers and the Raiders offense will score 21 or more points and have fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past road games where the Raiders met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 31-9 SU record for 78% winning bets and a 35-5-1 ATS record good for 88% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 12.5 points since 2000. 

10-STAR WAGER ON GEORGIA AS THEY HOIST NOTRE DAME SET TO START AT 8:00 PM EST

The machine learning summary projects that Georgia will score at least 31 points and will gain a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-rush. In past home Georgia games where they met or exceeded these projections they have earned an outstanding 16-6 ATS mark and covered the spread by an average of 8.8 points.

This situational betting system has earned a 59-20 record for 75% winning bets since 1990. The query instructs us to play on home favorites that are excellent offensive teams averaging 440 or more total yards of offense and after two consecutive games where they gained 7.25 or more yards-per-play and are now facing an opponent that has an average defense allowing between 330 to 390 yards-per-game on the season. 

This situational query has earned a 32-9 ATS record for 78% winning bets since 1990. The query instructs us to play on home favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are outrushing their opponents by more than 100 yards-per-game and after gaining six or more rushing yards per attempt in two consecutive games. 

7-STAR ON THE TEXAS LONGHORNS (376) AS THEY TAKE ON THE OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS IN BIG-12 CONFERENCE ACTION SET TO START AT 7:30 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Longhorns will gain at least 150 rushing yards, score at least 28 points, and gain at least 500 total offensive yards. In past games where the Longhorns have scored a minimum of 28 points and rushed for a minimum of 150 rushing yards, and gained a minimum fo 500 total yards, they have gone on to earn a 23-2 SU record for 92% wins and 19-5-1 ATS for 79% winning bets and have covered the spread by an average of 7.4 points.

The Cowboys are 9-16 ATS for 36% wins in road games where they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed at least 28 points. 

Texas head coach Herman is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing an outstanding rushing team averaging a minimum of 5.25 yards-per-rushing attempt. 

This situational query has earned a solid 25-4 ATS for 86% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. The query instructs us to play on home favorites after two consecutive games where they gained 450 or more total offensive yards and is game where both teams have five or fewer returning defensive starters. This query has covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

7-STAR WAGER ON THE LSU TIGERS (363) AS THEY TAKE TO THE ROAD TO PLAY VANDERBILT SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST.

This situational query has earned an outstanding 31-8 ATS record over the last five seasons for 80% winning bets. The query instructs us to play against home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. This query has earned a 12-1 ATS record this season thorugh three weeks. 

This query has earned a 19-2 ATS record over the last three seasons.

The machine learning summary projects that LSU will score at least 35 points and will average 10 or more yards per pass attempt. IN past games where the Tigers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a perfect 6-0 ATS record covering the spread by an average of 10.3 points. When Vandy has allowed these performance measures to a visitor they are 0-2 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average of 19 points. When Vandy has allowed a minimum of 9 yards-per-pass attempt and allowed 28 points to a visitor they are 1-9 ATS failing to cover the already by 10.8 points.

7-STAR ON THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (302) AS THEY TAKE ON THE TENNESSEE TITANS IN TNF NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 8:20 PM EST. 

The machine learning summary projects that the 

This situational query has earned a solid 108-65-5 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on any favorite that played a home game in their previous outing during the first four weeks of the season. Simple and quite profitable and easy to track. 

The query has had just one losing season among the past 10 seasons amnd that was a 6-7-1 result in 2015. The remaining nine season all showed consistent profitable results. 

The ‘Moustache put out a remarkable effort in his first NFL start completing 22-of-33 pass attempts for 213 yards and touchdown for a QBR of 111.8, which ranks seventh among NFL quarterbacks. Defensive coordinators will have film on him and Tennessee will look to adjust and exploit the weaknesses they learn for the film. I have see the film and the Jaguars OL did a solid job under difficult conditions against a strong Texans defense. The Jaguars OC will be able to add more complexity to the play calling schemes despite being a short week. Titans will get burned if they bring pressure since Garner Minshew has the elusive athleticism to buy a second or two more time to execute pass routes that will be in man coverage situations. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Jaguars defense will force two or more turnovers, that the Jaguars offense will out rush the Titans, that Jaguars will have a minimum of 135 rushing yards. 

In past home games where the Jaguars rushed for 135 or more yards and out rushed their opponent they have earned a solid 39-19-3 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 2001. In past home games where the defense forced two or more turnovers, the Jaguars are 54-26-3 ATS for 68% winning bets. In past home games where they met or exceeded all three of the performance measures they re 24-6-1 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2001. 

7-Star on the New York Jets as they take on the Cleveland browns in NFL action set to start at 8:10 PM EST. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Jets to gain more rushing yards than the Browns and will win the turnover battle. Teams that were lined as home dogs and have met or exceeded these performance measures have attained an outstanding 1305-129-27 ATS record for 91% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.2 points since 1989. In the same role the Jets are 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets covering by an average of 13.11 points. 

This situational query has earned a solid 66-32 ATS for 67.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The query instructs us to play on any team after a game where they committed one or no turnovers and is facing an opponent that had a turnover margin of -3 or worse in their last game. 

When we slice the data to include only home teams the record has been 74-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons for 65.5% winning bets. 

This second situational query has earned a 85-45 ATS mark for 65.4% winning bets since 2015. This query instructs us to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10-points after game where their defense forced zero turnovers. 

The third situational query that supports the Jets and works against the Browns and has earned a solid 40-16 ATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets since 1980. The query instructs us to play against favorites that had a terrible scoring defense in their previous season allowing at least 24 points-per-game and after a paying a game where 50 or more total points were scored. 

7-STAR ON THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS AS THEY TAKE ON THE DALLAS COWBOYS IN NFL  ACTION SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Redskins to gain a minimum of 6.5 passing yards per attempt and score a minimum of 27 points. They are also protected to have the better and more efficient offensive yards-per-point ratio. Teams that were lined as home dogs and have met or exceeded these performance measures have attained an outstanding 327-61-5 ATS record for 84.3% winning bets since 1989. Over the last five seasons the Redskins are 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets covering by an average of 13.7 points when averaging 6.5 or more yards per pass attempt and scoring 27 points as a home dog. 

This situational query has earned a solid 65-29 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play against favorites off a home win during the first four weeks of the season. When the play against team is a road favorite the record improves to 40-14 ATS  for 74% wins over the last 10 seasons. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AS THEY TAKE ON THE TENNESSEE TITANS IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST, SEPTEMBER 15, 2019.

This situational query has earned an outstanding 25-5 ATS record over the last 10 seasons for 83% winning bets. The query instructs us to play on underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) that were an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards-per-game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt last game. 

This query has earned a 10-1 ATS record over the last three seasons.

The machine learning summary states that the Colts will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards and score between 22 and 28 points. In past road games where the Colts have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 11-2 ATS record of 85% winning bets. 

7-STAR WAGER ON SOUTH CAROLINA AS THEY TAKE ON ALABAMA IN SEC ACTION SET TO START AT 3:30 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Gamecocks will score 28 or more points, will gain at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and will gain an average of at least 6 yards per play overall. 

This is not good news for the Crimson as they are 13-43 ATS when they have allowed 28 or more points, and 2-9-1 ATS when they have allowed 28 or more points and 6.0 or more yards-per-play. They are just 8-25 ATS when they and their opponent both score 28 or more points. 

The Gamecocks are a solid 83-39-4 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points since 1992. 

10-STAR ON THE INDIANA HOOSIERS AS THEY TAKE ON THE (7) OHIO STATE BUCKEYES IN BIG TEN ACTION SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Hoosiers will have 25 or more rushing yards and will not be outgaied by more than 100 yards. Conference home dogs of 11 or more points that have met or exceeded these projectins have earned a 30-85 SU record for 26% outright wins and are 81-32-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 9.5 points.

This situational query has earned a solid 26-6 record for 81% winning bets over the last 27 seasons. The query requirements to identify an active opportunity is to against road favorites that are excellent rushing teams gaining at least 230 rushing yards per game and are facing an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards per game and after the false favorite is coming off two consecutive games outrushing their opponents by at least 125 rushing yards. 

If the road traveler is favored by 7.5 or more points they have covered in five of 12 games for 29%. 

7-STAR ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS (460) AS THEY TAKE ON THE BALTIMORE RAVENS IN WEEK-1 NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary, The Dolphins are projected to have fewer turnovers than the Ravens and will gain a minimum of 100 rushing yards and 200 passing yards. In past home games where they have met or exceeded these projections the Dolphins have earned a 22-0 SU record winning the games by an average of 16.2 points and a 20-2 ATS record for 91% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.5 points. 

This situational query has earned a 30-8 ATS record for 79% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on all underdogs that had a horrible defense in the previous season that allowed an average of 385 yards-per-game. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (464) AS THEY TAKE ON THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST.

The Machine learning summary projects that the Jaguars will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass attempt, force a minimum of two turnovers, and will hold the Chiefs to fewer than 28 points. In past home games where the Jaguars  have achieved or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 31-0 SU record for 100% winning the games by an average of 14.7 points and a 28-2 ATS mark good for 93% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 11 points. 

In games where the Chiefs scored fewer than 28 points, committed two or more turnovers, and allowed a minimum of 7 YPPA they have been a money-burning 2-28 SUATS losing the games by an average of 19 points and failing to cover the spread by an average of 16 points. 

7-STAR ON VANDERBILT (313) AS THEY TAKE ON THE PURDUE BOILMAKERS IN WEEK-2 NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary, the Vanderbilt Commodores are projected to score between 28 and 35 points, will gain at least 200 rushing yards and average at least 5.7 yards-rush OR gain a minimum of 500 total offensive yards. 

Vanderbilt is 26-6 ATS for 81% winning bets an covering the spread by an average of 11 points when they score 28 or more points and gain 200 or more rushing yards since 2006; 12-1 SU for 92% and winning these games by an average of 24 points when they gain 500 or more total offensive yards and scores 28 or more points; 13-5 ATS when gaining an average of 5.7 or more rushing yards and scoring 28 or more points.

This situational query has earned a 63-28 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The query instructs us to play on a road team that had a weak defense allowing an average of 400 or more yards per game, with just five returning starters on defense, and in the first two weeks of the season. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE MISSOURI TIGERS (320) AS THEY TAKE ON THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS IN NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST.

The Machine learning summary projects that the Tigers will gain at least 9 yards-per-pass attempt, and will score at least 28 points. In past games where the Tigers have achieved or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 31-4 SU record for 89% winning the games by an average of 27 points and a 25-9 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12 points. 

In games where the Tgers scored 35 or more points (85% probability for this game) and passed for 9 or more yards per pass attempt they have earned an outstanding 26-1 SU record and a 21-5 ATS record for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points.

7-STAR WAGER ON THE MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (312) AS THEY OST ARMY IN NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 12:00 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Wolverines will outgain Army by at least 2 yards-per-Play and will score 31 or more points. 

Wolverines are 131-4 SU for 97% and 96-37-1 ATS when they score 31 or more points in a home game; when installed as a home favorite of 20 to 28 points and scoring 31 or more points they are 30-0 SU and 23-6-1 ATS for 79% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points; 36-0 SU and 27-9 ATS covering by an average of 9.4 points when scoring 31 or more points and outgaining their opponent by at least 2 yards-per-play. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE WAKE FOREST DEAMON DEACONS AS THEY TAKE ON THE RICE OWLS IN NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 8:00 PM EST, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2019.

This situational run line query has earned a a solid 56-24 ATS record for 70% wins over the past 5 seasons and instructs us to play on road teasm  after allowing 7.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game and has a returning starting quarterback and is now facing an opponent that has a new and inexperienced quarterback. 

The Machine learning summary projects that Wake Forest will gain at least 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt, and will score at least 27 points. In past games where Wake Forest has achieved or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 10-1 SUATS winning the games by an average of 17.5 points and covering the spread by an average of 20.0 points. 

7-STAR ON THE CHICAGO BEARS (452) AS THEY TAKE ON THE GREEN BAY PACKERS IN WEEK-1 NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 8:20 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary the Bears are projected to score between 22 and 28 points, will hold the Packers to less than 90 rushing yards, and will limit Rogers yards per pass attempt to 5.5 or fewer yards.  

The Bears in a home tilt are an outstanding 40-3 SU and 37-6 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10.4 points when they have held an opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards and fewer than 5.5 yards-per-pass attempt (YPPA). When we slice the dataset to include just divisional opponents the record improves to 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS for 88% wins and covering the spread by an average of 10.4 points. 

Road teams that won six or more games in the previous season and now find themselves installed as a pick-em to a 7-point underdog in week-1 and facing a divisional opponent are 18-34-2 for just 35% ATS winners. So, playing against these dogs has earned 65% ATS winning proposition. Over the last five seasons this query has produced a 6-1 ATS record for 86% wins and covered the spread by an average of 7.9 points. 

10-STAR ON THE OKLAHOMA SOONERS (216) AS THEY TAKE ON HOUSTON IN WEEK-1 NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 7:30 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary the Sooners are projected to gain, will score 41 or more points, will outgain Houston by 150 to 225 offensive yards or will gain 500 or more total offensive yards, and will average 10 or more yards per pass attempt. 

The Sooners are 8-3 ATS for 73% winning bets when they outgain their opponent by 150 to 200 yards in total offense and score 41 or more points; 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring between 35 and 49 points and outgaining their opponent by 150 to 200 total yards; 31-11 ATS for 74% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 10 passing yards-per-attempt and scored 41 or more points; 40-5 ATS for 89% winning bets when they have outgained their opponent by a minimum of 3.5 yards-per-Play. 

Houston is 0-9 ATS when allowing an opponent to outgain them by a minimum of 3.5 yards-per-play and allowing 41 or more points. 

7-STAR ON NO.-16 AUBURN (208) AS THEY TAKE ON NO.-11 OREGON IN WEEK-1 NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 7:30 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary the Tigers are projected to gain, will score 28 or more points, will gain a minimum of 450 total offense yards or will outgain Oregon by 100 to 150 offensive yards, in this game. 

The Tigers are 215-11 SU for 95% wins and winning the game by an average of 23 points and 149-56-4 ATS for 73% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.30 points when scoring 28 or more points since 1980 and 20-0 SU winning by 33.3 points and 15-4-1 ATS for 78% winning bets covering by an average of 12.8 points since 2016. 

The Ducks are 6-18 SU losing the games by an average of 10.3 point and 3-20-1 ATS for 13% failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.2 points when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2016. When the Ducks defense has allowed 28 points and 450+ total yards they have gone 2-11 SUATS losing the games by an average of 16.7 points and failing to cover the spread by an average of 14.1 points since 2016. 

The Tigers are 16-0 winning by an average of 35 points and 13-3 ATS for 81.3% winning bets when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 450 or more total yards in games played since 2016. 

This situational query has earned a 25-15 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2007. The query instructs us to play on favorites of at least 3.5 points and a total of at least 55 points in a game between two teams ranked between 10th and 20th in the AP-top-25 poll. 

7-STAR WAGER ON DUKE (183) AS THEY TAKE ON NO.2 RANKED ALABAMA IN WEEK-1 NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 3:30  PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that Duke will pass for a minimum of 250 passing yards and will be outgained by 200 or fewer yards in this matchup against the Tide. So, large dogs of 28 or more points that are able to gain 250 or more passing yards and not be outgained by the superior opponent by more than 200 yards are 8-125 SU, but 109-24 ATS covering the spread by an average of 13 points in these games and are 4-30 SU, but 28-6 ATS for 82.4% wins covering by an average of 14 points since the 2016 season. 

7-STAR ON WISCONSIN (149) AS THEY TAKE ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS IN WEEK-1 NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 7:00 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary the Wisconsin Badgers are projected to gain at least 300 rushing yards and/or will gain at least 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt, and will score 28 or more points in this game. 

Wisconsin is 28-7 ATS for 80% winning bets  and covering the number by an average of 13.5 points when they have rushed for 300 or more yards in a game since 2006. The Badgers are 34-13 ATS for 72.3% winning bets when they have gained an average of at least 6.0 yards-per-carry in games played since 2006. When they have scored a minimum of 28 points the Badgers are 68-33 ATS for 67.3% covering by an average of 8 points in games played since 2006. 

When the Badgers have scored 28 or more points and have gained a minimum of 6.0 YPR they have earned a remarkable 41-1 SU record winning the games by an average of 30.4 points and 33-9 ATS for 79% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 10.6 points in games played since 2006. 

This situational query has earned a 26-6 ATS record for 81% winning bets and has made the Dime Player a profit of $19,400 over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on a road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that were an excellent rushing team averaging at least 5.25 yards-per rush last season.

10-STAR ON GEORGIA TECH (135) AS THEY TAKE ON THE REIGNING NATIONAL CHAMPIONS CLEMSON TIGERS IN WEEK-1 ACTION SET TO START AT 8:00 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary G-Tech is projected to gain an average of at least 6.5 passing yards per attempt and will win the turnover battle or commit just one turnover in this game. So, in past games where any team has achieved or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 79-13 ATS record  for 86% wins since 2006 and 25-5 ATS mark for 83.3% ATS wins since the start of the of the 2016 season when installed as 24 or more point underdos.

This situational query has earned a 25-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets and has made the Dime Player a profit of $21,700 over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on a road team in the first four weeks of the season that played in a bowl game and lost their last two games of the previous season and is returning five or fewer starters on offense including an inexperienced quarterback. 

7-STAR ON THE ARIZONA WILDCATS  (293) AS THEY TAKE ON THE HAWAII WARRIORS IN NCAAF ACTION SET TO START AT 10:30 PM EST, SATURDAY AUGUST 24. 

The machine learning summary calls for the Wildcats to gain a minimum of 220 rushing yards, minimum of 280 passing yards, and will gain at least 7.0 yards-per-play and outgain the Warriors by at least 1.25 yards-per-play. IN oast games where Arizona gained 7.0 or more yards per play they have earned a 34-5 straight-up (SU) record and 25-12-2 against the spread (ATS) mark good for 68% winners. Slicing the data a bit deeper shows that Arizona is 10-3-1 ATS for 77% wins when gaining 6.5 or more yards per play and installed as a favorite between 10 and 27 points. Hawaii is 5-20 ATS for 20% when getting outgained by 1.0 to 1.5 yards-per-play. Arizona is 9-1 ATS when they have gained 6.5 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. 

This situational query has earned a 23-4 ATS record for 85% wins over the last 25 seasons. The query instructs us to play on road favorites installed as 10.5 to 21-point favorites that had a solid offensive gaining at least 5.8 yards-per-play and with seven or more defensive starters returning from last season. 

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

1.    The Play and How to Play It

10-Star wager on the New England Patriots as they take on the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII to be held at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA and set to start at 6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 3, 2019.

I am 13-2 against the spread with for years of ‘no play’ spanning the last 19 seasons. This impressive record DOES NOT automatically mean that I will win this game again. I am not in any way tempering my enthusiasm for this play. I am just giving you a reminder to remain disciplined with your 10-Star wager amount. If you wagered $100 per 10-Star release, then stay with that wager and if you wagered $10,00 for a 10-Star wager then maintain that amount. There is no reason to lose your mind and bet beyond your means. You’ll enjoy the game just as much, if not more, wagering the same amount you started with at the beginning of this season.

I sincerely appreciate all of your loyal support as my customer base crew by double digits again this season, which indicates our service must be doing something right. I will look to continue that excellence into March Madness, the NBA, and MLB. Once again. Thank you.

2.    Machine Learning Projections and Outcomes

 The Machine Learning summaries show a 7-Star play on the UNDER. Now, here is the fun part as we combine different alternative line wagers and a couple of parlays. I have always played some prop bets, which will be outlined below, but the real opportunity is with these alternative lines.

1.    So, 10-Star wager on the Patriots.

2.    7-Star wager on the UNDER

3.    3-Star Action Reverse Parlay (Patriots and the UNDER) pays 4-to-1.

4.    1-Star Parlay UNDER u51½+155    and Patriots -7½ +215

5.    1-Star Parlay UNDER u61½ -185 and Patriots and -20½ +900

So, for number 4 listed above, the bet is ‘UNDER’ a total of 61.5 points and getting back $155 per $100 if it wins and $100 getting back $215 if Patriots win by 8 or more points. When each leg is combined into a parlay, the $100 risk is to win $703.25.

Item 5 is calculated the same way and a parlay combining the ‘UNDER’ 51.5-points and Patriots -20.5 risks $100 to win $1,440.54. Note too that these parlays would return the original $100 wager if betting at a legal establishment. So, you are risking $100 to win $1,440.54 for a total return of $1,540.54.

Machine Learned Projection Summaries

The Patriots will gain a minimum of 8 yards-per-pass play, gain 125 to 150 rushing yards, and gain 400 to 450 total yards, and score 22 to 28 points. The Patriots defense will allow 6.5 to 7 net passing yards per pass play, allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt.

Patriots Precedents
7-0 ATS when they allow 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. The average score was 28.6 to 13.4 Patriots

29-11 ATS when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards-per-attempt. The average score was 29.9 to 19.3 Patriots

28-8 ATS when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards-per-attempt. The average score was 33.5 to 17.3 Patriots

17-5 ATS when they gain 8 or more net passing yards-per-attempt over the last 3 seasons. The average score was 31.9 to 20.3 Patriots.

48-28 ATS when they allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992. The average score was 28.9 to 21.7 Patriots

43-16 ATS when they rush for 125 to 150 yards since 1992. The average score was 27.4 to 16.1 Patriots.

68-39 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. The average score was 25.4 to 17.7 Patriots.

11-1 ATS when they gain 400 to 450 total yards over the last 2 seasons. The average score was 30.5 to 14.5 Patriots.

16-3 ATS when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons. The average score was 31.9 to 18.8 Patriots.

8-0 ATS when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. The average score was 33.1 to 18.3 Patriots.

15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. The average score was 31.3 to 19.9 Patriots.

Rams Precedents

31-68 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points. The average score was Rams losing 19.5 to 25.3

19-78 ATS when they allow 8 or more newt passing yards per game. The average score was Rams losing 19.2 to 31.4.

21-54 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards. The average score was Rams losing 18.3 to 25.

15-34 ATS when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt. The average score was 19.6 to 26.9.

Combinatorial Algorithm Results

In all games, when the Patriots have gained 400 or more total yards, they are an amazing 129-22 SU winning by an average of 13.9 points and 104-41-6 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.2 points.

When they have gained 400 or more total yards and average 8 or more passing yards per attempt, they are a 74-8 SU winning by an average of 18.3 points and 66-15-1 ATS covering by an average of 12.5 points for 81.5% wins.

When they have attained the two performance measures above and held their opponent to 21 or fewer points, they are 47-0 SU winning by an average of 25.1 points and 44-2-1 ATS for 96% covering the spread by 18.1 points.

1.    Data Base Situational Queries

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our tool shed and the ones now in development.

This DB query has earned a 22-4 ‘UNDER’ record for 85% over the past 10 seasons. The query parameters are to play ‘UNDER’ the posted total with any team after a win by 6 or fewer points and now facing an Opponent after 2 straight games where 60 or more total points were scored in each game.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Saturday, January 19, 2019

1.The Play and How to Play It

A.   Play a 7-Star wager amount on the New England Patriots (313) as they travel to Kansas City (214) installed as 3.5-point underdogs in the AFC Championship game.

B.   Play a 7-Star wager UNDER the total currently priced at 56-points.

C.   Play a 5-Star Parlay using the Patriots and the UNDER.

 Projections clearly show that both teams will be successful with their ground attacjs with the Patriots gaining between 150 and 175 RY and KC gaining between 100 to 125 RY. Patriots will gain 400 to 425 total yards while KC will be less than 400 TY. Patriots will gain a minimum of 6 yards per play (YPPL). KC will average at least 5.5 yards-per-rush (YPRA).

So, the Patriots are an outstanding 8-0 against the spread (ATS) when they gain between 6 and 6.5 YPPL and 15-4 ATS when they gain 6 or more YPPL.

Over the Patriots dynasty we have seen their defense play with a scheme begging the opponent to run the ball. This is one of the building blocks that worked so well in taking out the opponents’ best player or team strength. It sows in the data as well with the Patriots overall records improving the more RY they allow. The Patriots are 48-28 ARS when they have allowed 5 or more RYPA and an even better 18-6 ATS when allowing 5.5 or more RYPA. Further, the atriots are 6-1 SU winning by an average of 11.4 points and 6-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8 points when they rush for 150 to 175 yards and the opponent rushes for 125 to 150 yards.

When the Patriots have had 10 or fewer rushing plays than passing plays in playoff games they are 13-0 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 9-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10 points.

When the Patriots have had the more balanced offense than the opponent in playoff games as measured by (Patriots passes-rushes) – (Opponent passes-rushes) they are 10-1 SU winning by an average of 11.2 points and 9-2 ATS for 82% covering the spread by an average of 8 points.

Last, Patriots are 6-0 SU winning the game by an average of 19.8 points and 5-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.4 points when they outrush their opponent by a minimum of 25 yards and run 10 or more plays.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query resulting in a 46-20 ATS mark for 70% spanning the last 38 seasons. Play against favorites after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of their last game.

Supporting the UNDER is a query that has returned a 60-26 UNDER mark for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams that are off 1 or more straight OVER results with a defense allowing 18 to 23 points-per-game (PPG) and facing a defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG after Week 8. Of the 86 games that met the query parameters, 51% of them went UNDER the total by more than 7 points. It has produced a solid 8-3 record this season.

In playoff action this query has produced a 5-1 ‘UNDER’ record covering the total by an average of 11.6 points.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Saturday, January 19, 2019

10-Star Wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the Los Angeles Rams (311) getting 4-points facing the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship game set to start at 3:05 PM EST.

 The summary projections call for the Rams to win this game by at least 6 points. The Rams are projected to score 27 to 35 points, gain 125 to 150 rushing yards, and average 7.7 or more passing yards per attempt.

All playoff teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures have earned a 6-0 SU mark winning by an average 14 points and 5-1 ATS for 83% and covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query resulting in a 34-8 ATS mark for 81% spanning the last 10 seasons. Play on elite road teams (LA RAMS) that are averaging 265 or more passing yards per game (PYPG) after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt (PYPA) in 2 straight games and is now facing a struggling passing defense allowing 230 to 265 passing yards per game.

This DB query has gone an amazing 22-4 ATS over the past five seasons.

The matchup with the most positive advantage is Rams WR Robert Woods, who will be defended by the Saints P.J. Williams. Woods will be lined up as the slot receiver as often as possible to get this favorable matchup against Williams, who defended slot receivers 88% of the 436 routes (snaps) he defended this season. In fact, this is the biggest advantage any WR has in both games.

Interesting that the Woods-Williams matchup has the two ‘slowest’ players on their respective units with sporting a 4.51 ‘40’ and Williams a 4.59 ‘40’. Brandan Cooks and Marshon Lattimore are the speed merchants with 4.33 and 4.36 ‘40’ times respectively. This matchup is nearly equal with the machine learning final grade a modest edge to Cooks. The same equality can said of the Josh Reynolds and Eli Apple matchup as well.

Gerald Everett has a potential big day in front of him both as a run blocker a pick setter, and a receiver. He will be matched up against the Saints Vonn Bell and has significant size and speed advantages against a truly elite group of Saints linebackers. This type of matchup does not happen all that often in my years of matchup research where a TE, not named Gronkowski or Kelce, can have a major impact on the execution of the offense.

The QB comparison, of course, favors Brees, but not nearly as much as Fox Sports and ESPN and other ‘talking heads’ would lead you to believe. In fact, Brees set an NFL completion percentage during the regular season, but was not among the leaders in pass attempts over 20 yards. He did have the highest percentage at 52% of these ‘deep’ throws, but only attempted 55 Rank 18th)  of them for 871 yards (ranking 11th),during the season. Goff ranked 11th with 65 deep throw attempts, completed 48% (ranked 7th) for 975 yards (rank 7th). As outlined above, Goff has the better matchup WR and TE advantages and this offsets any individual measure attained by Brees.

Oh, and then there is Gurley, who is far more important to the offense then what he gains in rushing and receiving yards. He alone opens up play action and offers tremendous A or B gap pass blocking protection when asked to do so. When Goff has been kept clean, he completed 294 passes on 404 pass attempts for 73% completing rate and 3,775 passing yards, By the way, both Brees and Goof had 27 TD passes when kept clean, which was tied for 4th in the NFL. So, again the performance measures illustrate that the QB comparison is closer to an equal battle than a complete mismatch.

There’s more to write of course, but I will be still writing and the game will have started.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Sunday, January 13, 2019

OVER Philadelphia at New Orleans (307)
Philadelphia Eagles +8

Parlay Eagles +8 and OVER 52.5

Place a 7-Star wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the OVER, which is currently priced at 52.5-points. 7-Star Wager on the Philadelphia Eagles, who are priced as 8-point road dogs.

If you have access to adjusted lines consider a 3-Star amount parlayed with the Eagles +3.5 returning $180 for a winning $100 wager and OVER 56.5 returning $165 for a winning $100 wager. This parlay pays off $642.00 per $100 wager.

  The Saints had the best yards-per-point ratio in the NFL at 12.03, which simply means that they needed to gain 12 yards to get 1 point on the scoreboard. This ratio measures offensive efficiency and the lower the ratio the better the offense. In playoff games where a home favorite seeded 1 or 2 had earned a YPPT season average of 14 or less, the OVER has gone 14-5 ATS for 74%.

When this high-powered offensive team is hosting a foe that played the week before and installed as 7 to 11-point favorite, the OVER is a very nice 10-2 for 83.3% and the host just 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and 6-6 straight-up.

Saints have a much improved run defense this season, but Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS against strong units allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 42-14 UNDER mark for 75% over the last 5 seasons. Play UNDER the posted total Play UNDER with any team against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after allowing 30 points or more last game.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Sunday, January 13, 2019

NFL
New England (306)
Los Angeles Chargers (13 - 4) at New England Patriots (11 - 5)
Week 19 Sunday, 1/13/2019 1:05 PM EST

Place a 10-Star wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the Patriots, who are installed as 4-point home favorites.

 Patriots are projected to win this game by 10 or more points. They are going to score between 22 and 28 points, average 8 or more passing yards per attempt (PYPA), gain a minimum of 4 rushing yards per attempt (RYPA), and 6.4 or more yards per play (YPPL).

Patriots are 75-44-2 ATS for 65% when scoring 22 to 28 points and a perfect 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS when in the playoffs;   58-18 ATS when gaining 6.4 YPPL since 1989 and 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS since 2016; 112-12 SU winning by an average of 15 points and 96-26-2 for 79% covering by an average of 11 points when gaining a minimum of 8 YPPA since 1989; 17-5 ATS since 2016.

When the Patriots have gained a minimum of 4 RYPA and passed for a minimum of 8 PYPA, they have produced a 45-11 ATS mark for 80.4% covering by an average of 13.3 points and 9-2 ATS covering by an average of 8.7 points since 2016.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% over the last 38-seasons. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after Week 8 that are off 2 consecutive road wins and with a winning record for the season. If the opponent has a winning record, which the Patriots obviously do, this query improves to 30-8 ATS for 79% winners. Over the last 15 seasons, this query has earned a 13-4-1 ATS mark covering by an average of 8 points and 15-3 SU record winning the game by an average of 12 points.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Saturday, January 12, 2019

1.    The Play and How to Play It

NFL
Kansas City (302)
Indianapolis (11 - 6) at Kansas City (12 - 4)
Week 19 Saturday, 1/12/2019 4:35 PM

Place a 10-Star wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the Kansas City Chiefs, who are installed as 5-point home favorites.

2.    Machine Learning Projections and Outcomes

 KC is projected to roll in this game. They are going to score 28 or more points, average 8 or more passing yards per attempt (PYPA), 6.9 or more yards per play (YPPL).

KC is 118-29-5 ATS for 80% when scoring 28 or more points since 1989;            28-12-2 ATS when gaining 6.9 YPPL since 1989 and 5-1-1 ATS this season; 91-23-5 ATS when gaining a minimum of 8 YPPA since 1989 covering by an average of 9.2 points; 7-1-1 ATS this season covering by an average of 8.8 points.

When KC has had all three metrics met or exceeded, they have produced a 28-5-2 ATS mark for 85% covering by an average of 12.2 points and 6-0 ATS covering by an average of 10.7 points this season.

Any team that has met or exceeded these performance metrics has gone a ridiculous 544-119-16 ATS for 82% covering by an average of 11.4 points since 1989.

3.    Data Base Situational Queries

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 25-5 ATS mark for 83% over the last 38-seasons. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 consecutive road wins and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team.

A second DB query reveals that playing against underdogs that have won 8 or more of their last 10 games has earned a 51-26 against the spread (ATS) mark for 66.2% over the last 10 seasons. If the team sports a winning record about 60%, this query’s record improves to 25-10 ATS for 71% over the last 10 seasons.

Ryan’s NFL 10-Star Divisional Game of the Year

The Play and the Matchup

 Clemson (151)

CLEMSON (14 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (14 - 0)

Week 17 Monday, 1/7/2019 8:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Clemson Tigers, who are currently installed as 5.5-point dogs for this NCAA Championship game.

SIM Projections and Results

By many measures, these two teams are significantly better than any other teams in the nation. My ‘power ratings’ are calculated using machine learning techniques and are far more dynamic and predictive than traditional forms you may see on other wen sites. These rating have Alabama installed as a 2.5 point favorite against Clemson. To show how these two teams have separated themselves from everyone else, Alabama would be favored by 9 over Georgia, by 13 over Ohio State, by 17 over Mississippi State, 18 over Notre Dame, and 20 over Penn State. Clemson would be favored by 6 over Georgia, 11 over Michigan, 12 over Ohio State, and 17 over Penn State.

Weather could be an issue, but presently it looks like an precip will be minimal if at all and winds will be gentle and temps a bit on the cool side at 55 degrees for the fans, but football players will not notice the weather.

Clemson is the top rushing and rush defending team in the country. They gain 6.7 YPR and allow just 2.9 YPR. Further, they rank 4th in points-per-play with a 0.596 ratio and allow just 0.186 points-per-play, which ranks best in the nation. Alabama is fantastic in their own right allowing 3.3 YPR good for 10th best and gain 5.2 YPR good for 21st.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 35-10 ATS mark good for 78% over the last five seasons. Play on neutral field underdogs outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards-per-game on the season. If the game is occurring after Week 11, which gathers up all bowl games and playoff games, the record is 25-12 ATS and has covered the spread by an average of 7 points.

Yards per point margin is a great metric that reveals the efficiencies of any teams’ offense and defense together. The higher the ratio the stronger the team is on BOTH sides of the ball. Clemson comes in best with a 9.1 ratio and Alabama second at 8.2, then it drops to App State at 6.6 and Auburn at 5.1 and Notre Dame at 5.0. So, a fairly significant advantage for Clemson in this matchup against Alabama.

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence would be the first starting freshman quarterback since Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway in 1985 to lead his team to a national championship. Lawrence took over as the starter four games into the season and has thrown for 2,933 yards, 27 touchdowns and four interceptions.  Fundamentally, it stands to reason that Clemson will have their freshman QB executing medium length pass plays ( 3 step drop and ball is out in less than 2 seconds) initially to stave off the Alabama pass rush. Even more important, is for him to resist to the temptation to leave the pocket. With Alabama LB Christian Miller not anywhere close to 100% due to a hamstring, the middle of the field (between the hashes) will be the open for Lawrence to pick apart. There is so much more I could write about this exciting matchup on both sides of the ball, but due to time, its’ not possible. Be sure to get on Twitter and follow my analytics, especially at half time where I will release betting opportunities based on the box scores of the first half. @JohnRyanSports1

Thank you for a great season  - my 23rd – on the net and looking forward to a very profitable NFL post season and then March Madness.

San Diego Chargers (105)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Chargers, currently priced at 2.5-point road dogs.

Baltimore has an elite defense, but the projections call for San Diego to be quite successful moving the ball on offense. They are projected to gain between 200 and 250 net passing yards and score 22 to 28 points. In past road games where the Chargers have met or exceeded these projections they are 10-4-1 ATS for 71.4% success. Ravens are just 1-12 ATS when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query has earned a 96-33 mark using the money line for 74.4% over the last 38 seasons. Play against any team using the money line after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points and now facing an opponent off a double-digit road win. This query is 8-2 ATS in 2018 and has had just three losing seasons since 1980 and those were by just 1 single win. 8-7 in 2009 and 7-6-1 in 2016.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup          

Dallas Cowboys (104)

Seattle (10 - 6) at Dallas (10 - 6)

Week 18 Saturday, 1/5/2019 8:15 PM

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Dallas Cowboys, currently priced at 2-point favorites. Place a 7-Star wager on the OVER currently priced at 42.5 points and also a 5-Star Reverse Action parlay that pays 4:1 on Dallas and the OVER.

SIM Projections and Results
This game will showcase the best linebackers in the league and will be a big factor in who does win this game. These teams met in Week 3 and Seattle won easily at home, but that was before Dallas got focused and began their run to the NFC East Division crown and before Seattle got their bone crushing run game on full throttle. The projections certainly favor a more offensive type of game than most media talking heads have been predicting. That is not a recommendation to play the OVER, but rather that the offenses will be able to sustain drives and move the chains. Whether is becomes a game of field position is a toss up.

The projections are what truly matter in our world. Dallas is projected to average a minimum of 0.5 yards per play more than Seattle, will average between 6 and 6.5 YPPL, will rush for more than 120 yards, and will allow Seattle to score 17 to 24 points.

In past games where the Cowboys have averaged 6 to 6.5 YPPL they are a perfect 10-0 SUATS. Seahawks are just 16-31 SU and 15-32 ATS when allowing 6 to 6.5 points; 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS when allowing 6 to 6.5 YPPL and scoring 17 to 24 points.

Our vast NHL, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAM, NBA, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query has earned a 38-13 mark good for 75% since 1980. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3  and are an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring 23 to 27 PPG and after a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Since the start of the 2015 season this query has earned a perfect 6-0 SUATS mark and has covered the spread by an average of 8.8 points.

Penn State (272)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the PSU Nittany Lions, who are currently priced as 6.5-point favorites. Also, a 5-Star play on the OVER. Consider making an “Action Reverse” Parlay using the Lions and the OVER, which will pay 4:1 and is a much better risk/reward opportunity than the tradityion 13:5 two-team parlay.

PSU is projected to score a minimum of 28 points, gain between 475 and 525 yards and or gain a minimum of 7.8 yards per play. PSU is 12-0 SU winning the game by an average of 25.5 points and 11-1 ATS for 92% and covering the spread by an average of 14.8 points when they score 28 or more points and gain between 475 and 525 yards. When Kentucky as allowed these measures, the OVER is 16-3 for 84% and covering the total by an average of 12.7 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development.

Kentucky is a money burning 45-103-4 ATS for 30% and failing to cover the spread by 6.3 points when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 4-15 ATS for 21% since 2015.

The Play and the Matchup          

LSU (273)

LSU (9 - 3) vs. UCF (12 - 0)

Week 16 Tuesday, 1/1/2019 1:00 PM

FIESTA BOWL - State Farm Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

10-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the Tigers, who are currently priced as 7-point favorites.  

SIM Projections and Results
The Tigers are projected to gain 250 or more rushing yards and score more than 28 points. In past games where they have met or exceeded these performance measures, the Tigers have earned a 27-2 SU record winning the game by an average of 28.9 points and 21-8 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.7 points. And when they have been installed as 4.5 to 11.5-point favorites  in this situations they have gone on to earn an 8-2 SUATS mark winning the game by an average of 17.7 points and covering the spread by an average of 9.7 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Iowa (269)

IOWA (8 - 4) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4)

Week 16 Tuesday, 1/1/2019 12:00 PM

Outback Bowl - Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Hawkeyes, who are priced as 7-point dogs.

SIM Projections and Results

The Hawkeyes are projected to gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. The Hawkeyes are 4-3 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% when they have scored between 23 and 28 points and gained between 350 and 400 total yards.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 24-14 record for 63% averaging a +210 Dog wager since 2008. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.

Missouri (263)

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Tigers, who are currently priced as 9-point favorites.

Missouri is projected to score a minimum of 28 points, gain between 475 and 525 yards, and gain a minimum of 6.8 yards per play. The Tigers are 19-3 SU winning the game by an average of 16.7 points and 15-6-21 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7 points when they score 28 or more points and gain between 474 and 525 yards. When meeting or exceeding these performance measures and installed as a favorite of 3 to 13 points, they are a perfect 6-0 SUATS winning the game by an average of 23 points and covering the spread by an average of 15.9 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 36-14 record for 72% since 2014. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards-per-game and after being outgained by previous opponent by 125 or more total yards.

Here is a second supporting query that has earned a solid 49-24 SATS mark good for 67% since 2014. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and now facing an opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Virginia Tech (253)

VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (10 - 2)

Week 16 Monday, 12/31/2018 12:00 PM

MILITARY BOWL - Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Hokies, who are priced as 6.5-point dogs.

SIM Projections and Results

The Hokies are projected to gain 150 rushing yards and 400 total offensive yards. Cincinnati is just 13-28-2 ATS when allowing these performance measures since 2008 and 5-12-1 ATS for 29% failing to cover the spread by an average of 6 points since 2015.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 24-14 record for 63% averaging a +210 Dog wager since 2008. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

 Miami Dolphins (319)

MIAMI (7 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 10)

Week 17 Sunday, 12/30/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the Miami Dolphins, who are currently priced as 5-point dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Buffalo is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Our database tells us that playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.5 YPR and after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game and now facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing a minimum of 4.5 YPR has earned a very strong 72-34 ATS mark for 68% since 1980.

The Play and the Matchup          

Detroit Lions (311)

DETROIT (5 - 10) at GREEN BAY (6 - 8 - 1)

Week 17 Sunday, 12/30/2018 1:00 PM
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the Lions, who are currently priced as 8-point road dogs.  

SIM Projections and Results
The Lions are projected to gain 100 rushing yards and gain 200 passing yards. In past games where they have been installed as 4.5 to 11.5-point dogs and meeting or exceeding these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-10 ATS mark for 63%

This DB query has produced a 56-19 ATS record for 75% over the past 38 seasons. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team with a win percentage between 40% to 49% playing a losing record team. This query has not lost in the past 5 seasons and has earned a perfect 9-0 record.

Oklahoma (253)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Oklahoma, who are priced as 14-point dogs. Also, consider playing an extra 2-Star amount on the money line, which is priced at a very juicy +600.

 A bit of history here for you. It was January 2, 2014 and Oklahoma installed as a 16.5 point dog to Alabama and the Sooners won the game outright 45-31. It is a LOCK that the Sooner coaching staff brought up this epic Sooner win quite a bit over the last several weeks.

The following precedents match the projections for this game.

Oklahoma is 11-1 against the money line (+9.6 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 25-7 against the money line (+13.5 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 11-2 against the money line (+8.6 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt; 34-6 against the money line (+23.9 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 22-3 against the money line (+21.3 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points; 23-2 against the money line (+22.1 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 11-1 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 total yards per play.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Clemson (256)

NOTRE DAME (12 - 0) vs. CLEMSON (13 - 0)

Week 16 Saturday, 12/29/2018 4:00 PM

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Clemson Tigers, who are installed as 13-point favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Clemson is projected to contain the Irish passing attack to 6.3 or fewer yards per pass attempt and will gain over 200 rushing yards. When Clemson has been on the road or at a neutral field and has been able to meet or exceed these performance measures they are 12-1 SU winning the game by an average of 25 points and 10-3 ATS covering the spread by an average of 14.8 points. 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

When Clemson has scored a minimum of 24 points and has outrushed their opponent by more than 100 yards, they have earned a perfect 24-0 mark winning the game by an average of 24.8 points and 20-4 SATS for 83% and covering the spread by an average of 14.3 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Florida (249)

Florida (9 - 3) vs. Michigan (10 - 2)

Week 16 Saturday, 12/29/2018 12:00 PM

PEACH BOWL - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Gators, who are installed as 6-point dogs. Also, consider the alternative wager consisting of a 5.5-Star play using the line and a 1.5-Star play using the Money Line, which is currently priced at +195. If you are wagering $100 per Star, the 1.5-Star Money line wager returns $292.50 ($150*1.95) should Florida win the game outright.

SIM Projections and Results

Florida is projected to contain the Michigan passing attack to 8 or fewer yards per pass attempt and will gain over 200 rushing yards. When Florida has been on the road or at a neutral field and has been able to meet or exceed these performance measures they are 18-2 SUATS winning the game by an average of 18.3 points and covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss against a conference rival and is a top-level team winning at least 80% of their games and playing a team having won 60% to 80% of their games.

Here is the second DB system query that has produced a 22-12 record using the money line averaging a +213 DOG over the last 10 seasons. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

Syracuse (243)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Syracuse, who are priced as 2.5-point favorites.

Syracuse has had a fantastic season and they almost knocked off Clemson in Death Valley earlier this season. They put up one bad game, which was at Notre Dame scoring 3 points, but overall they averaged more than 40 points per game and were getting better as the season evolved. WVU is a team in disarray led by the unbelievable decision of their QB Will Grier to sit out this bowl game and not risk injury. That’s one way to become a disconnected team member and it certainly bring sto light the lack of coaching leadership. They lost their last two games tro Oklahoma State and then in an epoch game against Oklahoma at home 59-56.

     So, the SIM summary projections call for Syracuse to score at least 30 points and that their stout defense will force a minimum of 2 turnovers with the potential to force 4 or more. In past games when the Orange have scored 30 or more points and forced 2 turnovers exact they have earned a 16-2 SU mark winning by an average of 14.3 points and a 14-4 ATS mark covering the spread by an average of 12.6 points; when the opponent has turned it over by 3 turnovers, the Orange are then 8-2 ATS covering by an average of 9.1 points; when the TO have been 4, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average eof 16.7. Overall, when they score 30 or more points and force an opponent into 2 or more turnovers, the Orange are 31-3 SU winning by an average of 17.7 points and 28-6 ATS covering by an average of 12.3 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 40-14 ATS mark since 1992. Play against any team with an excellent offensive team scoring at least 34 PPG after a loss by 3 or less points and is now facing an average defensive team allowing an average of 21 to 28 PPG and with the current game taking place after Week 6.

Here is a second DB query that has recorded a 26-9 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2014. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win and is a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Auburn (241)

AUBURN (7 - 5) vs. PURDUE (6 - 6)

Week 16 Friday, 12/28/2018 1:30 PM

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Tigers, who are installed as 3.5-point favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Tigers to score 28 or more points, gain over 200 rushing yards and average at least 6.3 yards per play. When the Tigers have gained 200 or more RY and scored 28 or more points, they have had a near-perfect 61-1 SU mark winning the game by an average of 26 points and a 43-19 ATS mark good for 70% and covering the spread by an average of 7.7 points. 

When they have rushed for 250 yards and scored 28 or more points, they have gone 49-1 SU winning by 26 points and 35-12-1 ATS for 75% covering the spread by an average of 8 points.

Purdue is just 3-28 SU losing by 22 points on average and 7-24 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average of 12 points when they have allowed 28 or more points and 250 or more rushing yards.

When Auburn has been installed as a slight favorite between -1 and -4.5, scoring 28 and gaining at least 250 RY, they are a perfect 6-0 SUATS winning the game by an average of 13 points and covering the spread by an average of 10 points

Vanderbilt (110)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Vanderbilt, who are priced as 3.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt is projected to score a minimum of 28 points. When Vanderbilt has scored 28 or more points, they have earned an 13-4 ATS mark covering by an average of 8.7 points over the past three seasons and 81-28 ATS for 74% dating back to the start of the 1980 season. By contrast, Baylor is just 55-146-5 ATS for 27.4% failing to cover by an average of 8.7 points when allowing an opponent to score 28 or more points since 1980; 2-13 SU losing by an average of 16.5 points since last season.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 73-36 ATS mark since 2013. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and now facing an opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Wisconsin (238)

MIAMI (7 - 5) vs. WISCONSIN (7 - 5)

Week 16 Thursday, 12/27/2018 5:15 PM

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Badgers, who are installed as 2.5-point dogs.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Badgers to gain over 250 rushing yards and average ay least 8 yards per pass play. When the Badgers have gained 250 or more RY and averaged more than 8 YPPA, they have had a perfect 31-0 SU mark winning the game by an average of 31.5 points and a 23-7 ATS mark good for 77% and covering the spread by an average of 11.2 points. 

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 34-10 ATS mark since 2014. Play on neutral field underdogs that are outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards-per-game on the season.

The Play and the Matchup          

California Golden Bears (234)

TCU (6 - 6) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 5)

Week 16 Wednesday, 12/26/2018 9:00 PM

CHEEZ-IT BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the Golden Bears, who are currently priced as 1-point favorites.  

SIM Projections and Results
The defenses of both of these teams are fully capable of controlling the line of scrimmage and forcing each other’s offense into long down situations that have a significantly less chance of moving the chains with a first down. Cal has the better defense and rank 14th in the nation allowing only 32% of 3-down plays to be converted into first downs.

CAL Has earned a 28-1 SU and 25-3 ATS mark covering the spread by an average of 12 points when they have gained 50 or more RY than the opponent and averaged 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Minnesota Gophers (231)

MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7 - 5)

Week 16 Wednesday, 12/26/2018 5:15 PM

QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Gophers. who are installed as 6-point home dogs.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Gophers to gain over 200 rushing yards and average ay least 8 yards per pass play. When the Gophers have been installed as a dogs and then gained 200 or more RY and averaged more than 8 YPPA, they have had a perfect 5-0 SUATS mark winning the game by an Average of 12.6 points and covering the spread by 18.7 points.

Our vast NCAAB and NBA databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 19-11 mark using the money line since 2009. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This is essentially a Bowl Game with the exception of the Week 1 marquee matchups.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Oakland Raiders (132)

DENVER (6 - 8) at OAKLAND (3 - 11)

Week 16 Monday, 12/24/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Raiders. who are installed as 3-point home dogs and a 7-Star wager on the OVER, which is currently priced at 43 points. Also, place a 5-Star parlay on the Raiders using the line and the OVER. An alternative wager consideration is to play a 4-Star parlay using the Raiders on the money line and the OVER.

Some sportsbooks offer alternative lines on certain prime time games. These lines include adjusted lines where the book will offer lines that are plus or minus 6 points on either side of the current line. For example, the total will see lines of 49.5 and 36.5 for the total. With these lines comes increased vig of approximately +200 to 220 for each side of this total. The advantage for us is that we can play the OVER 49.5 and if correct get paid $220 for a $100 wager. So, you can construct a parlay wager using the 49.5 alternative total line and the Raiders on the money line that would pay off a quite handsome $630 per $100 wager. Food for thought for sure.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Raiders to play above the majority of season averages and certainly has the potential to win this game. The Raiders are projected to gain an average of 7 to 7.5 passing yards per attempt (YPPA), gain between 6.3 and 6.8 yards per play (YPPL), score between 24 and 30 points, and gain a minimum of 350 total yards (TY).

Denver is 5 -24 SU for 20 percent winners 7-18 ATS for 28% winners when they allow 350 to 400 offensive yards and allow between 24 and 30 points. Slicing the data to only show road games for Denver and the record worsens to 2 wins 14 losses for 12 and a half percent and 4 wins and 12 losses against the spread for 25% win rate and failing to cover the spread by an average eof 7.6 points. The OVER in this exact situation is 10-6 for 60%. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 when Denver has allowed 6.3 to 6.8 YPPL and 24 to 30 points in road tilts with a cover averaging 15 points.

Looking at just two parameters, the Raiders have averaged 33 points when they have gained 6.3 to 6.8 YPPL and 7 to 7.5 YPPA.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 43-14 for 75.4% ATS mark since 2009. Play on all teams facing a conference foe where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Houston Texans (124)

Houston (10 - 4) at Philadelphia (7 - 7)

Week 16 Sunday, 12/23/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Texans. who are installed as 2.5-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Texans to be quite efficient offensively and will score 24 to 31 points, will rush the ball for more than 150 yards and will have at least a 5 minute edge in time of possession. For starters the Eagles are just 8-27 SU and 9-25-1 ATS and failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.1 points when they allow 150 or more RY and allow 24 to 31 points. When at home the record drops to a horrid 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points. Lastly, when we add in the TOP projection, the Eagles record declines to just 1-6 SUATS for 14.3%.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 29-9 ATS mark for 76% since 1980. Play on road teams in the second half of the season that are mistake-free teams averaging fewer than 1.25 TOPG and after 4 consecutive games where they committed no more than 1 turnovers and now facing a team forcing fewer than 1.25 TOPG.

Miami (110)

Jacksonville (4 - 10) at Miami (7 - 7)

Week 16 Sunday, 12/23/2018 1:00 PM

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Miami, who are priced as 3.5-point home favorites.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 52-19 ATS mark since 2009. Play on any team after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers and now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This query has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season and has covered the spread by an average of 8.6 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

San Diego Chargers (124)

BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (11 - 3)

Week 16 Saturday, 12/22/2018 8:20 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Chargers. who are installed as 4.5-point home favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Chargers to score 22 to 28 points, average 7.7 yards per pass attempt (YPPA), gain a minimum of 350 total yards, and will outgain the Ravens by a minimum of 1.1 yards-per-play (YPPL).

The Chargers are 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS for 71% when outgaining their opponent by a minimum of 1.1 YPPL and averaging a minimum of 7.7 YPPA. When they outgained their opponent by a minimum of 1.1 YPPL in home games, they are an outstanding 50-11 SU and 45-16 ATS for 74% and covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points. Adding in the projection that they will gain a minimum of 350 yards produces a 41-7 SU and 36-12 ATS records.

The Ravens are the best defensive team in the NFL currently and rank first in YPPA at 5.53 and TY allowed at 290.1 per game. However, the Chargers have done well against the best defenses in the league. Since 2013 when facing a stout defense allowing less than 300 yards per game in a home game have gone 4-1 SUATS and have covered the spread by an average of 14.3 points.

The Ravens are just 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points since the start of the 2016 season and when the game is on the road an imperfect 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS for 29%. When the Ravens opponent has outgained them by a minimum of 1.1 YPPL, they are just 23-48 SU and 19-50-2 ATS for 28%; 1-5 SUATS since the start of the 2016 season. When they have been outgained by a minimum of 1.1 YPPL and allowed a minimum of 7.7 YPPA, they are a miserable 6-30 SU and 10-25-1 ATS for 29%; 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% since the start of the 2013 season.

Army (213)

Houston (8 - 4) vs. Army (10 - 2)

Week 16 Saturday, 12/22/2018 3:30 PM

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX.

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Army, who are priced as 6-point favorites for this bowl game.

Army has had a historic season winning 10 games and most of all defeating Navy in their last game.  Army ranks first in time of possession (TOP) keeping the ball for an average of 39.15 minutes per game and Houston dead last of the 130 programs averaging just 24.80 minutes per game. Moreover, Houston ranks 128th with opponents averaging 48 rushing plays per game and 100th allowing 210 RYPG. Army ranks first averaging 65 rushes per game and second averaging 298.1 RYPG.

Army is projected to gain 350 rushing yards on a minimum of 70 rushing plays. In past games where they have met this pair of standards they are 8-2 ATS covering by an average of 12.8 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 35-14 ATS mark since 2014. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an elite offense averaging 450 or more total yards-per-game (YPG), after being outgained by their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

New Orleans Saints (331)

New Orleans (11 - 2) at Carolina (6 - 7)

Week 15 Monday, 12/17/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Saints. who are installed as 6-point road favorites. Also, a 7-Star graded play UNDER the posted total. We recommend a maximum bet of no more than a 2-Star parlay amount using the Saints wager on the line and the UNDER.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Saints will gain 8.5 or more yards per pass attempt, will force Carolina into a minimum of 2 turnovers, will gain a minimum of 375 total yards. Saints are 22-5 SU winning by an average of 14.7 points for 82% and 42-3 ATS covering the number by an average of 11.8 points for 89% when they have passed for at least 8.5 YPPA and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers. Adding in the Divisional showdown, the Saints are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%. When they have defeated the opponent in the previous meeting, they are an even better 13-1 ATS covering by an average of 12.5 points.

Supporting the play on the UNDER is the fact that the Saints are 12-1 UNDER and covering the total by an average of 8 points when on the road against a divisional foe with the week after a win in which they came back from a deficit

This database situational query has returned a profitable 61-27 UNDER record for 69% over the past five seasons. The query is to play under the posted total with home teams after a 2 game road trip and with the game occurring in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
New England Patriots (327)

New England (9 - 4) at Pittsburgh (7 - 5 - 1)

Week 15 Sunday, 12/16/2018 4:25 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 10-star wager (3 to 10-star grading scale) on the New England Patriots which the market has priced them as 2.5-point road favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Patriots to score between 22 and 28 points, rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt and gain at least 250 net passing yards. The Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 68-38 ATS (+26.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. The Steelers are just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

This database situational query has produced a 30-8 mark for 79% winners since 1980. Play on road teams in Week 8 using the money line that are mistake-free teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers and are now facing a team forcing 1.25 TO-per-game forced. Addressing the ATS side of this query and looking for road favorites have earned a stout 27-7 ATS mark for 79% since 1980; since the start of the 2016 season, this query has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% success.

The Play and the Matchup          

Dallas Cowboys (313)

Dallas (8 - 5) at Indianapolis (7 - 6)     

Week 15 Sunday, 12/16/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on Dallas who are currently priced at 3-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Dallas is on a role and the MATH projects this will continue in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon. One query reveals that Dallas is 9-1 ATS after a dominating game featured by having had at least 34 minutes in time of possession and are now installed as a road dog since 2010. Dallas has suddenly become the second best defense in the NFL based on numerous flash metrics like scoring defense. The Colts, when installed as a 3.5 point dog to a 3.5 favorite, facing a defense allowing less than 21 points after 8 games, and then gaining less than 5.0 yards-per-play, are just 5-12-1 ATS failing to cover the number by an average of 7.7 points.

The following database system query has produced a solid 24-8 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2009.  Play against home teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams posting a total yards differential between -40 and 40 yards and after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards.

Miami Dolphins (202)

MIAMI (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 6 - 1)

Week 15 Sunday, 12/16/2018 1:00 PM

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Dolphins, who are priced as 8.5-point home favorites for this Bowl game matchup.

Dolphins are projected to score 22 to 28 points and hold Minnesota to less than 100 rushing yards. In past games where the Dolphins have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 54-13-2 ATS mark for 81% and covering by an average of 6.7 points; 30-4-1 ATS for 88% covered by an average of 9 points and 31-4 SU for 89%.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has done quite well sporting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% since 1980. Play on road teams with a struggling defense allowing 6.0 or more yards-per-play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Chicago Bears (603)

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Bears. who are installed as 5.5-point home favorites. Also, a 5-Star graded play UNDER the posted total. We recommend a maximum bet of no more than a 2-Star amount using the line and the UNDER.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

GB is 0-6 ATS when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons.

Chicago is 7-0 ATS in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

Chicago is 6-0 ATS in home games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Chicago is 6-0-1 ATS in home games when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Chicago is 28-7-1 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points and allowing 225 or fewer net passing yards; 5-0 UNDER the total since the start if the 2016 season.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
New York Jets (508)

Houston (9 - 4) at NY Jets (4 - 9)          

Week 15 Saturday, 12/15/2018 4:30 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7- stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the NY Jets, who are currently priced as 7-point home dogs. Consider an optional combination wager using a 5.5-Star amount on the line and a 1.5-Star amount using the Money Line, which is priced at +240. The 1.5-Star wager using the money line returns $240 per $100 wager and $360 return for the $150 ($100 per Star) wager.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls the Jets

Further, Houston is an imperfect 0-11 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10 points when on the road playing on turf and having the better win percentage than the opponent. Add in the fact they are coming off a loss as a favorite and they are 0-2 SUATS failing to cover by 13.5 points. Granted. Only two game sample size, but specific to the Texans. Since the start of the 2015 season, all team sin this role have done poorly sporting a money-burning 5-12 ATS record for 29%.

The following database situation query provides a solid record of 22-8 ATS for 73% since the start of the 1980 season. Play against road teams using the money line that are good rushing teams averaging between  125 and 150 RY/game and after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game and is now facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing between 125 to 150 RY/game.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

Utah State (202)

NORTH TEXAS (9 - 3) vs. UTAH ST (10 - 2)

Week 16 Saturday, 12/15/2018 2:00 PM

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Utah State, who are priced as 7.5-point home favorites for this Bowl game matchup.

Utah State is projected to score at least 28 points and gain an average of 6 yards-per-play. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a solid 39-10-2 ATS mark for 80% and covering by an average of 10.9 points; 10-3 ATS for 77% covering by an average of 11.5 points since 2016; 5-0-1 ATS covering by 15.6 points this season.

John Ryan Sports

LA CHARGERS (10 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 2)   
Week 15 Thursday, 12/13/2018 8:20 PM
@JohnRyanSports1

Thu, Dec. 13, 2018 as of 9:22 AM EST

ATS

Moneyline

Total

Rot#

Teams

Bets

Bets

Bets

Percentage

8:20pm

301

Los Angeles Chargers

3007 

42%

+3.5 -105

908 

43%

163

O 2691 

70%

53.5 O -111

302

Kansas City Chiefs

4206 

58% 

-3.5 -105

1223 

57% 

188

U 1129 

30% 

53.5 U -110

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the San Diego Chargers, who are installed as 3.5-point road dogs.

Also, consider an alternative combination wager comprised of an 8-Star wager using the line and a 2-Star wager using the money line. If you are wagering $100 per star (10-Star = $1,000 risk), then with a money line of 163 returns $326 if the Chargers win the game SU. The 8-Star amount would cover obviously adding $800 for a total profit of $1,126. If the Chargers lose by 3 or fewer points, the line wager wins $800, the money line wager loses $200 for a net profit of $600. Using these optimized ratios between line and money line will add significant profit to your bottom line over the course of a season. So, a Holiday reminder to stay the course maintaining the same daily discipline that has served us so well to date.

The Chargers and Chiefs are projected to attain or exceed any specific or combination of he following performance measures in this game.

Chargers Precedents

v  87-20 ATS for 80.6% covering by an average of 9.7-points when they gain 8.3 or more net passing yards-per-attempt since 1990.

§  8-3 ATS covering by an average of 6-points since 2016.

v  101-25 ATS for 80.2% covering by an average of 10.2 points when gaining 140 or more rushing yards since 1990.

§   8-2 ATS for 80% covering by an average of 10.6-points.

v  12-3 ATS for 80% covering by an average of 8.5-points when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

v  27-2 SU and 26-3 ATS for 90% covering by an average of 13.5-points when they score 28 or more points and force an opponent into 2 or more turnovers since 2009.

v  22-3-2 ATS for 88% covering by an average of 7.7-points when installed as a road dog facing a divisional foe and having a lower, more efficient yards-per-point ratio since 1990.

Kansas City Precedents

v  22-3-2 ATS for 88% covering by an average of 7.7-points when installed as a road dog facing a divisional foe and having a lower, more efficient yards-per-point ratio since 1990.

v  24-79 ATS for 23% covering by an average of 9.5-points when they allow 28 or more points since 1990.

o   1-11 ATS for 8,.3% failing to cover by an average of 15.6-points when installed as home favorite between -3 and -7.5.

v  3-11 ATS for 21.4% failing to cover by an average of 11.4-points when installed as a home favorite and having 2 or more turnovers and allowing 28 or more points.

Our vast NCAAM, NBA, NCAAF, NHL, MLB, and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the advanced query technologies we have in our data toolshed. This one has produced a 48-18 ATS record for 67.4% since 1980 and calls for us to play against home favorites that is a solid rushing team gaining 4.5 or more YPR and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game and is now facing a team with a rushing defense allowing between 3.5 to 4.5 YPR.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Seattle (134)

MINNESOTA (6 - 5 - 1) at SEATTLE (7 - 5)     

Week 14 Monday, 12/10/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Seahawks, who are installed as 3-point favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Minnesota has struggled running the ball this season ranking third worst averaging just 86 RYPG. They pass the ball a ton ranking eighth gaining 274.8 PYPG, and third averaging 40.9 pass attempts per game. Kirk Cousin has done his part completing 71% of his pass attempts and is second to only Drew Brees, who has completed 75% of his passes. The problem is that the Vikings are not stretching defenses vertically as evident by averaging only 6.7 yards per pass attempt that rank a dismal 22nd. This allows defenses to play far more aggressive schemes not having to respect the vertical routes.

     Seattle does not have elite corners and Thielen and Diggs will have advantages being defended by Justin Coleman and Shaquille Griffin respectfully. So, Seattle will play a lot more cover-2 and will focus on containing Cousins to the pocket and minimizing the times he has to extend plays. Seattle will not be concerned if Minnesota starts out running the ball somewhat effectively in a bend and don’t break defensive scheme.

Our vast NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the advanced mathematical technologies we have in our data tool shed.

This one has produced a 65-30 ATS record for 68% and calls for us to play againstall teams in a conference matchup where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games.

Seattle has covered 7 of their last 8 games and is facing a team that does a whole lot more throwing than running as illustrated above. More specifically, teams play against a conference foe at home and that foe averages 250 or passing yards on the season and has averaged 250 or more over their last three games are a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS covering by an average of 10.5 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Dallas Cowboys (130)

PHILADELPHIA (6 - 6) at DALLAS (7 - 5)       

Week 14 Sunday, 12/9/2018 4:25 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 10-star wager (3 to 10-star grading scale) on the Cowboys which the market has priced them as 3-point home favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Cowboys to average a minimum of 6 yards per play and will have the lower, more efficient yards-per-point ratio. In past games where the Cowboys have attained these performance measures, they have produced a 76-5 winning by an average of 14.6 points and 64-15-2 ATS covering by an average of 9.2 points. Slicing the data set to include games from the start of the 2016 season shows that Dallas is a perfect 12-0 and 11-1 ATS covering by an average of 12 points.

The Eagles have not done well when allowing these performance measures going just 3-30 SUATS losing by an average of 13.6 points and failing to cover by an average of 12.9 points over the past 10 seasons. When the opponent has gained a minimum of 6 YPPL and rushed the ball for a minimum of 137 yards, the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS since 2016 and 3-17 ATS over the past 10 seasons.

This database situational query has produced a 22-9 mark for 71% winners since 2009. Road teams using the money line with a struggling defense allowing 6.0 or more yards-per-play, after outgaining previous opponent by 150 or more total yards.

Dallas WR trio of Gallup, Cooper, and Beasley all have significant matchup advantages. Cooper has been a huge success so far and his presence stretches a defense vertically. He will be covered in man situations by Sidney Jones and Prescott will be targeting Cooper in man situations as often as possible. Eagles trio of WR will have their hands full just to get meaningful seperationg from the defender to give Wentz a chance at completing a pass. Byron Nelson is perhaps the best coverage CB in the NFC and will all but eliminate either of Algholor or Jefferies. And Chidobe Awuzie is nearly as good as Nelson in man coverage.

Zach Ertz has had a great season as the league leader in receptions for a TE and will be looking to break the all-time TE receiving record in the weeks to come. This day though, will see him matched against a very good and physical safety in Jeff Heath. Given the strength of the Dallas LB and their elite speed from sideline to sideline, it will be difficult for Wentz to extend plays rolling out to either side, especially to his right where he has been exceptional this season. Dallas pressured Brees up the middle to disrupt that offense, but with Wentz, their goal will be pocket containment and force him to step up in a crowd of linemen. Dallas’ LB speed is the biggest problem facing the Eagles offense.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

New Orleans Saints (113)

NEW ORLEANS (10 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 7)

Week 14 Sunday, 12/9/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Saints, who are installed as 10-point favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Saints are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season while the Bucs are just  2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons. Bucs are 0-24 SU and 1-23 ATS losing to the number by an average of 17.8 points when the opponent has gain 7 or more yards-per-play and the opponent had a lower (more efficient) yards-per-point ratio.

Our vast NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all of the advanced mathematical technologies we have in our data tool shed.

This one has produced a 25-6 ATS record for 81% and calls for us to play on road favorites that are mistake-free teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and is now facing a team that has forced 1.25 turnovers per game and after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, the record improves to 28-6 ATS for 82.4% since 1980

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup          

NY Jets (115)

NY JETS (3 - 9) at BUFFALO (4 - 8)     

Week 14 Sunday, 12/9/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the Jets, who are currently priced as 4.5-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Jets are expected to gain 6 or more yards per play and will have a lower, more efficient yards-per-point ratio than Buffalo. In past games when the Jets have accomplished this, they are a solid 34-3 SU and 32-5 ATS covering by an average of 14.8 points. In past games when the Bills have allowed these measures to an opponent, they have been a horrid 1-49 SU and 6-43-1 ATS for 12% and failing to cover by an average of 13.6 points.

The following database system query has produced a solid 29-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1997.  Play on any team after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

New England Patriots (117)

NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) at MIAMI (6 - 6)

Week 14 Sunday, 12/9/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the New England Patriots, whom the market has priced as 8-point road favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Patriots will gain 250 to 300 net passing yards and 7.5 to 8 yards per pass attempt, gain a minimum of 137 rushing yards and between 400 and 450 total offensive yards. Miami is projected to gain less than 250 net passing yards and less than 7.5 passing yards per attempt. Patriots are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992;  100-19-2 ATS when they rush for a minimum of 137 yards and 18-2 ATS covering by an average of 12.3 points when on the road against a divisional opponent.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
 Atlanta (111)

ATLANTA (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (4 - 7 - 1)      

Week 14 Sunday, 12/9/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the Falcons, who are installed as 4-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls the

The following database situation query provides a solid record of 54-22 ATS for 71% since the start of the 2014 season. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers and are now facing an opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

ARMY (104)

NAVY (3 - 9) vs. ARMY (9 - 2)          

Week 15 Saturday, 12/8/2018 3:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Army, who are priced as 7-point favorites for this matchup.

SIM Projections and Results

Army is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when they gain 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards-per-attempt; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards

Further, Army is a stout 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Here is a query result that has gone 57-8 for 88% using the money line and supports Army. Play against neutral field underdogs using the money line (NAVY) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread and when playing on a Saturday. We could do this query by identifying games in December and January since the large majority of neutral field venues are related to bowl and playoff games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Jacksonville (101

JACKSONVILLE (4 - 8) at TENNESSEE (6 - 6)

Week 14 Thursday, 12/6/2018 8:20 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the Jacksonville Jaguars, whom the market has priced as 4-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Tennessee is projected to score 15 to 21 points and that JAX will rush for a minimum of 150 yards. This pair of performance measures has produced a 2-9 ATS mark and failing to cover by an average of 13 points. In road games, JAX is 10-2 ATS when rushing for a minimum of 150 yards and allowing 15 to 21 points.

Our Algorithms show us that playing on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 18 to 23 PPG after 8 or more games have been played and  after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points has produced a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% since 1980.

This is a database situational query using the money line that has produced a 26-7 record for 79% since 1980. Play on any team vs the money line off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival when playing on a Thursday Night.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Pittsburgh Steelers (713)

LA CHARGERS (8 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3 - 1)

Week 13 Sunday, 12/2/2018 8:20 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the Steelers, whom the market has priced as 3-point home favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Our Algorithms show us that playing on favorites after having won 3 out of their last 4 games and now facing an opponent having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games has made steady annual profits for 10 seasons with a 34-4 SU 90% record winning by an average of 13.8 points and a 31-6-1 ATS record and 84% winners covering by an average of 8 points. If we include only teams that were favored by 2.5 points or more, the record improves to 30-2-1 ATS for 94% and covering by an average of 10.5 points and 33-0 SU winning the game by an average of 15.7 points. The last loss occurred in the 2014 season and over the last 3 seasons has gone a perfect 12-0 ATS.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup          

San Francisco 49ers (702)

SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 9) at SEATTLE (6 - 5)

Week 13 Sunday, 12/2/2018 4:25 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the 49ers, who are currently priced as 10-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
The 49ers are projected to play exceedingly well and have the potential to get what would be a shocking road win over Seattle. Since 2014, the 49ers are 15-3 ATS for 83% when they have scored 24 to 31 points. They are also a solid 7-2 ATS when gaining more yards-per-play than opponents in road games installed as a dog since 2014.

The following database system query has produced a solid 48-17 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1983.  Play against home favorites that are solid rushing teams gaining a minimum of 4.5 YPR and are now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.5 YPR and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game.

This database system query has produced a 38-13 ATS mark good for 75% spanning the last five seasons. Play on road teams in the month of December after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Jacksonville (352)

INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 8)

Week 13 Sunday, 12/2/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Jaguars, who are priced as a 4-point home dog.

Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 6-star play on the line and a 1-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for SU upset win. The money line is currently at 180, which implies a 1.8:1 return for the 1-Star portion for a grand total of 1.8-Stars or $180 for a $100 wager. Plus, the 7-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $880. If they cover, but fail to win, then the total profit is $600.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

The SIM projections show that the Jaguars will score 23 to 30 points and contain the Colts passing attack to no more than 6.5 yards-per-pass, and will outgain the Colts by a minimum of 0.5 yards-per-play. When the Jaguars have been installed as a home dog and scoring 23 to 30 points, they are a remarkable 15-2 ATS for 88% and covering the spread by an average of 8 points.

This database situation query plays on home teams revenging a road loss against opponent and is off an upset loss as a road favorite and has produced a 83-43 ATS mark for 65 % since 1980.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Carolina (355)

CAROLINA (6 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 7)

Week 13 Sunday, 12/2/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Panthers, who are priced as 3-point road favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

Carolina is projected to score a minimum of 28 points and when they do are 8-1 ATS in games played over the last two seasons. When TB allows 28 or more points they are just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 2-9-1 ATS over the past 2 seasons.

This DB query has attained a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% playing on road teams in December after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Northwestern  (321)

Northwestern (8 - 4) Vs. Ohio St (11 - 1)

Week 14 Saturday, 12/1/2018 8:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Wildcats who are priced as 15-point neutral field dogs in this BIG-10 Championship game.

SIM Projections and Results

Playing on larger dogs in specific matchups has paid-off quite well over the years and the following DB query exhibits those results with a 37-88 record for JUST 30%, BUT has made 117.5 units or $11,750 per $100 wager averaging an incredible +555 dog wager. Play on underdogs of +315 or higher using the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is a solid team winning 60% to 80% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record.

In 2016, Ohio State went to Happy Valley installed as 18-point favorites in this situation and lost the game 24-21. In 2013, Texas was a 12.5-point dog facing the Sooners in the BIG-12 Championship and the Sooners lost 36-20. These are just 2 of many of these major upsets that have occurred 30% of the time under the DB query parameters and in 88% of these games, the betting consensus was largely betting the favorite and giving the DOG no chance to even cover the spread.

This DB query has attained a 61-26 ATS record good for 70% playing on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games and has won 80% or more of their games and now facing a solid team winning 60% to 80% of their games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Texas (311)

TEXAS (9 - 3) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1)

Week 14 Saturday, 12/1/2018 12:30 PM

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Texas, who are priced as an 8-point neutral field dog.

Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 8-star play on the line and a 2-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for SU upset win. The money line is currently at 300, which implies a 3:1 return for the 2-Star portion for a grand total of 6-Stars or $600 for a $200 wager. Plus, the 8-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $1,600. If they cover, but fail to win, then the total profit is $800, which is quite attractive given the ceiling at $1600 is 60% better than just the single $1000 10-Star line play.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

The SIM projections show that Texas will gain an average of 7.3 to 8.7 yards per pass play and hold Oklahoma to less than 9.5 yards per pass play. Texas is 6-1 ATS for 85% covering by an average of 9.4 points when gaining 7.3 to 8.2 YPP since start of 2016 season. Sooners are 4-7 ATS when not gaining more than 9.5 YPP since start of 2016 season.

     Texas is expected to gain 170 to 235 rushing yards and in past games when they did accomplish this range of RY they are a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS covering by an average of 10.1 points. Both teams are projected to score 31 or more points. Sooners are just 5-10 ATS in this situation. Texas will have fewer turnovers and in games where noth teams score 31 or more and the Sooners lose the turnover margin, they are just 1-5 ATS failing to cover by an average of 12.6 points. Then, if the Sooners are favored by 4 or more points in this situation, their results have been an imperfect 0-10 ATS losing to the number by an average of 16.7 points since the start of the 2011 season.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Washington Huskies (306)

UTAH (9 - 3) vs. WASHINGTON (9 - 3)

Week 14 Friday, 11/30/2018 8:00 PM

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Huskies who are priced as 5-point favorites in this PAC-12 Championship game.

SIM Projections and Results

In the 8-year PAC-12 Championship history, the participants have been prolific offenses and the results have been track meet types of games. This one features the tow best defenses in the PAC-12 and two of the best defenses in the nation. Washington leads the PAC-12 in scoring defense at 16.6 PPG and ranks 10th nationally. Utah ranks second-best in the PAC-12 allowing 19.3 PPG and ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense. So, this will be a game of field position that Washington will gain the upper hand by dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage.

For the season, the Utes have averaged a conference-leading 205 RYPG, but over their last 4 games they have averaged 192 RY. Washington has improved their ground attack over the last 4-weeks averaging 200 RY as compared to a season average of 189 RY. More important is how the Washington defense has significantly improved down the stretch of the L4 games limiting opponents to just 97 RYPG while Utah has allowed 139 RY compared with a season average of 100 RYPG.

In games where Washington has had 50 or more rushing yards than the opponent and had a lower (better) rank than the opponent and both teams were ranked, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 18 points and winning the game outright by an average of 29 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Northern Illinois (303)

Northern Illinois (7 - 5) vs. Buffalo (10 - 2)

Week 14 Friday, 11/30/2018 7:00 PM

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Northern Illinois, who are priced as 3.5-point neutral field dog.

Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 8-star play on the line and a 2-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for SU upset win. The money line is currently at 150, which implies a 3:2return for the 2-Star portion for a grand total of 3-Stars or $300 for a $200 wager. Plus, the 8-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $1,200. If they cover, but fails to win, then the total profit is $800, which is quite attractive given the ceiling at $1200 is 20% better than just the single $1000 10-Star line play. Not steering your thoughts in this combination direction as a straight 10-Star wager using the line is a smart play as well.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

The SIM projections show that Northern Illinois will have less than 150 net passing yards. This reflects their success running the ball and the lack of need to throw the ball to the move the chains or to mount a comeback from a 2 or more scoring deficit. Buffalo is just 6-15 SU for 29% winners when allowing an opponent 150 or less net passing yards. NI is a solid 8-3 SU when gaining 150 or fewer net passing yards over the L2 seasons.

Interesting too is the fact that Buffalo is 0-10 SU and just 3-7 ATS losing to the number by an average of 8.2 points when facing NI.

NI is 40-19 against the money line (+21.2 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Dallas Cowboys (509)

NEW ORLEANS (10 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 5)

Week 13 Thursday, 11/29/2018 8:20 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Cowboys, who are priced as 7.5-point road dogs. Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 8-star play on the line and a 2-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for the Cowboys SU upset win. The money line is currently at 300, which implies a 3:1 return for the 2-Star portion for a grand total of 6-Stars or $600 for a $200 wager. Plus, the 8-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $1,600. If Dallas covers and fails to win, then the total profit is $800, which is quite attractive given the ceiling at $1600 is twice that amount and 60% better than just the $1000 10-Star lione play. Not steering your thoughts in this direction as a straight 10-Star wager using the line is a solid play as well.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Dallas is projected to gain at least 50 more rushing yards and have a greater yards-per-play (YPPL) ratio. When the Saints have allowed these measures in road games, they are just 5-45 SU losing by an average of 11.5 points and 10-39-1 ATS failing to cover the number by an average eof 8.7 points.

Saints have won 10  and covered in 9 straight games and this sets up as a very tough situation for them to continue their success. Teams on 10 or more game winning streaks and are installed as as road favorites are just 7-22 ATS for 24% and losing to the spread by an average of 7 points. The last time this situation happened was in 2016 with the Dallas Cowboys, so you can bet this has been discussed in detail in their meetings this week. In Week 13 of the 2016 season, they won the game but failed to cover the number on the road against the Vikings. The next week they laid a big-time egg scoring just 7 points and allowing 10 points in the fourth quarter on the road at Giants Stadium.

Playing on home teams using the money line and are mistake-free teams committing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers has produced a highly successful 45-8 SU record good for 85% winners since 2014. When these teams are coming off a game where they enjoyed a +2 turnover margin, the record goes to 25-5 for 83.3% winning by an average of 10.9 points.

Saints will have advantages, of course, with WR Thomas and Kirkwood, but they are going up against two of the better corners in the conference. Anthony Brown will defend Kirkwood and although he is barely 6-feet tall, he runs a 4.33 forty and will blanket Kirkwood all over the field.

Byron Jones has the size and excellent technique to contain Thomas in man coverage situations. The fact that Dallas can bring pressure and still have confidence in their corners to minimize separation distances eliminates the double-move routes that the Saints have had major success with over their 0-game winning streak.

Dallas has added Amari Cooper to their WR group and it has enabled the offense to stretch defenses vertically, which in turn opens up enhanced running lanes for Elliott and other RBs to dart through to the second level. Dallas does have an advantage in the run game and this truly is the most import key for Dallas to control game tempo, time of possession, and field position. Once the running game is established and the Saints need to bring a safety into the box, it will open up outstanding play action opportunities for Prescott to execute.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Tennessee (273)

Tennessee (5 - 5) at Houston (7 - 3)

Week 12 Monday, 11/26/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Titans, who are priced as 4.5-point road dogs. Consider an alternative combination wager consisting of a 7.5-Star play using the line and a 2.5-Star play using the money line to exploit the upset Titan victory.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Titans are projected to have modestly more rushing yards and will have no more than 0.5 YPPL deficit than the Texans. When these two performance measuring sticks have been met or exceeded by the Titans, they have produced a stout 104-37-2 ATSD mark for 74%. When this game has been on the road, they have produced a 52-17 mark good for 75% and covering by an average of 7.9 points. Drilling the dataset a bit deeper, our queries return a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% and covering by 9.7 points per game when installed as a road dog of 1 to 7 points and 5-1 ATS since the start of the 2015 season covering by an average of 13.6 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Miami Dolphins (265)

MIAMI (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5)

Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Dolphins, who are priced as 8-point road dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +270. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Dolphins pull off the upset returns ($540). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Dolphins to gain 0.5 yards-per-play or fewer than the Colts. These road teams that are installed as dogs of 8 to 14.5 points are a solid 22-4 ATS for 85% covering by an average of 7.5 points since the start of the 2016 season.

This database situation query that has produced a 35-19 ATS record good for 72% winners since the start of the 1980 season. Play on any team (MIAMI) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 23 to 27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup          

San Francisco (255)

SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 7)

Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the 49ers, which the market has priced them as 2.5-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary and precedents are as follows:

49ers are expected to gain between 350 and 400 total offensive yards and average 6.0 to 6.5 yards-per-play. The 49ers are 16-4-3 ATS when they have achieved this pair of performance measures. When at home and allowing these performance measurss, the Bucs are an imperfect 0-5 ATS failing to cover by an average of 15.6 points.

The following database system query has produced a solid 67-30 ATS mark good for 69% winners over the past five seasons.  Play against favorites (TAMPA BAY) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and after a game where they forced no turnovers.