NCAAF Week 12
PAC-12 Action

4% Best Bet UCLA Bruins plus the points over Oregon

My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models that I developed predict that UCLA will score at least 28 points and hold Oregon to a maximum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which UCLA met or exceeded these performance measures has earned thema 46-15-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2006 and under head coach Chip Kelly a perfect 4-0 ATS mark.

Kelly is 14-2 ATS in road games and coming off a game in which his team had no more than single turnover.

Bet on conference road underdogs that are not ranked and facing a conference foe that is ranked and within the first five games of the season and are coming off a game in which they allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards. This set of parameters has earned a 21-11 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2005.

Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina
12:00 PM EST, November 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Appalachian State

I like Appalachian State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The following betting system has eanred a highly-profitable 26-7-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet on a team that is facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games and in a matchup where both the team and the opponent have a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. In Week 7 of last year Appalachian State was in the same role and defeated Louisiana Lafayette 17-7 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

My machine learning models predict that App State will have at least a five minute edge in time of possession and will run a minimum of 65 plays in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned an outstanding 25-7-1 ATS record for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.2 points.

Illinois vs Rutgers
Noon ET, November 14, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Fighting Illini

The money flows support this play on Illinois. Illinois bettig volume accounts for 68% of the moiney bet on just 28% of the tickets. This reflects a much greater betting amount per-bet placed on Illinois and reflects that the sophisticated professional likes backing Illinois.

This betting system supports Illinois and has eanred a solid 38-10-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requires are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are gettig outscored by 17 or more points-per-game and have allowed 31 or more points in three consecutive games.

NCAAF Week 11
Army vs Tulane

4% Best Bet on the Army Black Knights

Army is a young team, but playing at a high level and received the 27th most votes in this week’s AP poll. The have not played in three weeks and I do not believe there will be any letdown whatsoever. The team knows that with a win here in New Orleans they will crack the Top-25 poll this coming week.

The following system has eanred an outstanding 75-26-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road teams that are averaging a minimum of 235 rushing yards-per-game, are coming off a game gaining at least 280 rushing yards, and now facing an opponment that has allowed 125 to 150 RYPG on the season.

The machine learning model projects that Army will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and this is great news for backers of Army. In games in which Army rushed for 250 or more yards on 60 or more rushig attempts, and scored 27 or more points has earned a 27-11 SU record and a 25-13 ATS mark good for 66% winning bets since 2010.

NCAAF Week 11
Iowa vs Minnesota

4% Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes

First, 48% of the tickets and 77% of the monmey has been on the Hawkeyes in betting action this week and that is supportive of our bet. I like the line at 3 and do not expect it to move to 3.5, but you could see the vig start increasing on the Iowa lines.

My machine learning models project that Iowa will score 28 or more points in this matchup. In past games in which they scored 28 or more has earned them a solid 31-2 SU record and 24-8-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. And when on the road and scoring 28 or more points, Iowa is a perfect 10- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points in games played since 2015.

Eastern Michigan vs Ball State
7:00 PM EST, November 11, 2020

4% Best Bet on Ball State

EMU is coming off a 27-23 loss and ATS win to Kent State. They gained just 61 yards on 31 attempts for a 1.9 yards-per-rush ratio. Their defense allowed 431 yards to Kent State with 212 on the ground and 219 through the air. So, they were outgained by 151 rushing yards and reflects the fact that Kent State dominated both sides of the line-of-scrimmage. These results sets of EMU in a very poor situation for this matchup against Ball State.

The following betting system underscores teams failure to run the ball and control at least one side of the LOS. The system has earned a 151-89-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on favorites between 8 and 17.5 points that are facing an opponent that was out-rushed by a minimum of 125 rushing yards in their previous game.

 The machine learning models predict that Ball State will score a minimum of 28 points. In past games dating back to 2010, Ball State is a solid 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. EMU is 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2010.

Take Ball State as a 4% Best Bet

NFL Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
8:20 ET, November 8, 2020

5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. 

 This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.

The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.

Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.

 The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

No.1 Clemson vs No. 4 Notre Dame
7:30 PM EST, November 7, 2020

The marquee game of the day pits these two ACC powerhouses against eachother in Southbend, Indiana. This game marks the 39th time that Notre Dame has been installed as a home dog and have earned a 17-22 SU record and 23-16 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 1980. Heach Coach Kelly is 4-2 as a home dog at Notre Dame as the spreadsheet below reveals.

Since 1996, there have been eight games pitting top-5 ranked teams after six or more games have been played. The home dog in these power matchups has gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS for 38% winning bets.

Clemson head coach Swinney is Swinney is 32-13 ATS after two consecutive games where they committed no more than one turnover.

From the machine learning models Clemson is 13-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and their rank is higher in the polls than the opponent’s rank. Notre dame is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points to a team ranked higher than them.

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

4% Best On the Vanderbilt Commodores

Let us start with a tried and true betting system that supports the Commodores and has earned a 62-27 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road underdogs that have allowed 30 or mor epoints in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points.

Mississippi State has had three consecutive games which they lost the turnover battle. Teams that have an average turnover margin of less than -1 and have had three straight games with a -1 or lower turnover margin are just 64-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

The machine learning models project that M-State will rush for 50 to 115 yards and when they have in past games have been a money-burning 5-15 ATS record for 25% winning bets since 2010. Vanderbilt is 9-2 ATS in road tilts when they have allowed 115 or fewer rushing yards.

Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

This 4% bets bet is on the Houston Cougars and consider an alternative betting strategy placing 3% using the line and a 1% amount on the money line. My machine learning models do show a reasonable chance that we could see a headline-making upset. 

This is a matchup in which Cincinnati is in a ‘reversion’ mode meaning their recent performance measures are not sustainable and prone to an average or below-average performance. For instance, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS following three consecutive games allowing an opponent 125 or fewer yards since 1990. 

My machine learning models project that the Cougars will gain at least 135 rushing yards and will have no more than two turnovers and will have fewer turnovers than Cincinnati. In past games in which the Cougars met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to earn a stout 36-4 SU record and 30-9-1 ATS for 77% winning bets that covered by an average of 11.5 points in games played since 2010. 

No 21 Michigan vs. No 11 Indiana
12:00 PM ET, Novem,ber 7, 2020

Indiana is off to a fast and unexpected 2-0 start to the 2020 season. Michigan was shocked by Michigan State, who lost to Rutgers, and annot lose another game before their showdown against Ohio State. Let’s get right to the data points.

Road favorites of not more than seven points that rank lower in the AP poll than their host ranks are 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990 and 7-1 ATS since 2015. Michigan is the team targeted by this database query today.

Indiana is just 3-18 ATS coming off a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite since 1990.

From my machine learning summaries, Michigan is expected to gain 200 or more rushing yards and outgain Indiana by a minimum of 100 total offensive yards. In past games, in which Michigan met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 49-0 SU and 34-15 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1990 and 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2015. Take the Michigan Wolverines as a Best Bet Titan.

(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020

4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.

The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.

The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.

RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.

My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.

Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.

(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
1:00 ET, November 1, 2020

4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots

I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.

1.       Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.

2.       Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).

3.       Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.

4.       Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.

Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.

Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.

135 Ohio State Buckeyes vs 136 Penn State Nittany Lions
7:30 PM EST, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Big Ten Upset Alert on the Lions + 12

Big Thanks go out to Johnny Detroit of WagerTalk and Sportsmemo for giving me the opportunity to join the best assembly of sports handicappers on the planet. Some of these veterans I have known since my internet start back in 1997, so it is an honor for me to be part of this winning team.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off on eof the most bizarre games in recent seasons. They outgained the Indiana Hoosiers, but still lost in overtime on a controversial 2-point conversion that was awarded to the Hoosiers and ended the game 36-35. The Lions were quite rusty and made far too many mental mistakes so it the last play of the game was not the reason they lost the game. Murphy’s Law was certainly on the Lions side of theledge while the Luck of the Irish was on the Hoosiers.

The betting lineopened with the Buckeyes installed as 10.5-point road favorites. The line has since moved to -12.5-points as offered at Caesars, currently, and more than 90% of the bets have been on Ohio State. I expect this vastly lop-sided betting flow will find an equilibrium in the 13 to 13.5-point range as game time approaches. One way to bet this game is place 50% of a 4%-bet amount now and then steadily add 0.25% amount with each ½-point rise in the line. Scaling in your bet in a game where the consensus betting flows overwhelmingly favor the opponent is always a wise choice.

Justin Field and the Buckeyes team performed as expected after a slow start. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a game plan not to get beat over the top last week. They had their corners, especially on the far side of the field, seven or more yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). So, they simply dared Fields to throw the field side out route, which few College level QBs can make since it is a 30 to 35 yard horizontal high-risk pass. The pass must be thrown hard and accurate.

I past seasons the Michigan Wolverine’s press defense has been obliterated every year by the Buckeye offense. Truly, the only style of defense that is ewffective against he Buckeyes spread offense that features many variations of crossing routes, is the zone-blitz scheme. Guess, who has been usig that scheme the past few seasons? If Parsons, who is arguably the best defensive player in the nation, was in the lineup, this line would be 10-points. Still, the Lions are quite deep at the linebacker position and stronmgly believe they will be highly effective against the Buckeyes offense.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 29-11-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and has four requirements.

1.       Bet on home underdogs.

2.       The game is a matchup of conference foes.

3.       The home dog is coming off a loss of installed as a road favorite of 6 or more points.

4.       The opponent is coming off a home win of 17 or more points.

I run machine learning models that provide a glimpse at what the final box score may look like if the predictions go our way. When we lose a bet these predictions serve to show we lost the bet too.   

The models project that the Lions will gain at least 200 rushing yards, score 28 or more points, and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Buckeyes. In past games in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has produced an outstanding 32-0 SU record and a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winning bets. Take Penn State and enjoy takig the generous amount of points.                                                                                                             

(123) Notre Dame vs (124) Georgia Tech
3:30 ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 points and is valid up to -22.5 points

 My machine learning models suggest that this is a major mismatch on both sides of the ball. The models project that the Irish will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and score a minimum of 28 points. The following table shows the SU and ATS results for each of these parameters and then combined for when the Irish have met or exceeded these performance measures.

 Irish records since 2010

Team

Scoring >=28

Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Irish

67-12 SU + 53-25 ATS 68%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

22-1 SU + 18-5 ATS for 78%

Yellow Jackets since 2010

Team

Allowing Scoring >=28

Allowing Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Yellow Jackets

11-48 SU + 13-44-2 ATS 23%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

2-8 SU + 0-10 ATS for 0%

So, you can see that any one of the two or both combined produce favorable results for the Irish and a winning bet. Based on my predictive power ratings, the Irish are a 29-point favorite in this game.

 For the season, the Irish are average a solid 12.3 yards-per-point. The lower the value the better and more efficient the offense is when looking at offensive yards-per-point. The models project that the Irish will post an offensive yards-per-point metric between 10 and 12 in this game. Note, that the Irish are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have posted a yards-per-point reading between 10 and 12. Take the Irish.

(117) Kansas State vs (118) West Virginia
Noon ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on Kansas State +6 points and is valid down to +4

 West Virginia’s QB Jarrett Doege leads the B-12 conference with 127 completions, 4th with a 64% pass completions, and third with 1389 passing yards on the season. The offense is scoring 32.3 PPG, but is struggling to run the ball. The lack of a solid ground attack will give the K-State defense the luxury of not having to bring the safeties up to the line of scrimmage. The K-State defense can then mix quarters, man, underneath man coverages with help from the safeties in deep post and crossing routes. Doege is going to struggle against the K-State defense.

 This betting system has earned a solid 100-49-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and has three requirements.

1.       Play on a road team.

2.       The home team is coming off a conference loss by 7 or fewer points.

3.       Both teams are winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season.

Take Kansas State.

(137) Memphis Tigers vs. (138) Cincinnati Bearcats
Noon ET, October 31, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Memphis Tigers +6.5 points and is valid down to an including +4 points.

 Quarterback Brady White and the Memphis Tigers will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the No 7 Cincinnati Bearcats in a showdown of American Conference teams. White has been solid completing 107 of his 165 pass attempts for 1,375 yards including 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers have faced far better competition than the Bearcats, who have faced Austin Peay, Army, and American conference foes South Florida and SMU. The Bearcats man-handled No 22 SMU in a 42-13 road win and covered the number as 1.5-point dogs. With a Tiger win over the Bearcats, they are in position to run the table to end the season 8-1 and would have the tie-breaker over the Bearcats.

 This betting system supports the Tigers and has earned a 57-36-2 ATS record good for 61.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on non-ranked road underdogs of 3.5 or more points for their first five games of the season anmd are facing a ranked conference foe.

 Here is a second betting system that support the Tigers and underscores their underrated ground attack. The system has earned a 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requirements are to be on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in game of strong rushing teams averaging 200 to 235 rushing yards-per-game and with the ranked opponent coming off a game in which they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Now you can see the upset alert.

(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
8:20 PM EST, October 29, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Falcons +2 1/2 and is valid bet down to and including pick-em

Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.

The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.

My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.

Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, October 26, 2020

10-Star NFL Game of the Month

The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.

My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.

The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.

The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.

The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.

The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.

Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.

From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.

Take the Bears and the points.

Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4:05 PM EST

4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders

Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.

The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.

 Green Bay vs Houston
1:00 PM EST, October 25, 2020

4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans

A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.

When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.

Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, October, 25, 2020

4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.

The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio

In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.

The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.

There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.

Bet on any team on the money line when:

1.       The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.

2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.

From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Pitt Panthers

This Irish team has many uncertainties and is highly suspect based onmy research. Irish love to run the ball, but will be going against on eof the best defensive fronts in the nation. Pitt matches extremely well against the Irish and this is a game that Pitt can win outright.

The line has been static all week, but the total has crashed down from an opening of 48.5 points to the current level of 43.5 points. This is a rare occurrence and brings even greater value to Pitt plus the 9.5 points. The implied final score is an Irish 27-17. The opening line had an implied final of an Irish 29-20 win. So, this shows that Pitt can score fewer points with a total this much lower than the opening and cover the spread.

Pitt has an underrated defensive unit and note that Irish are a money-burning 14-17 SU and 11-20 ATS for 36% when facing a team that allows an average of 285 offensive yards.

From the machine learning models, Pitt is predicted to average a minimum of 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt and will hold the Irish to less than 200 passing yards. When Pitt has met or exceeded these performance measures they are 25-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS 67% winning bets and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2010.

Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020
FOX

7-Star Titan on the Iowa State Cyclones

This betting system supports the Cyclones and works against the Cowboys earning a solid 34-8 ATS record for 81% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on underdogs between 3 and 9 points.

2.       That are facing a host that is allowing 8 or fewer first-half points-per-game

3.       The host has scored 20 or more points in the first half in each of their last two games.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Cyclones are an outstanding 12-1 ATS mark, good for 92% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 24 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and installed as a road dog against a conference foe.

No 8 Penn State vs Indiana Hoosiers
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

3:30 PM EST, October 24th, 2020

The Lions have won 22 of the previous 23 meetings with the Hoosiers by an average score of 35-21 since 1993. However, the Lions betting record is 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets.

The Hoosiers only win this series was a 44-24 win and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since that win, the Hoosiers have lost the last six games and have posted a 2-3-1 ATS mark.

The last two games have been highly competitive between these programs. In 2018, the Lions clawed their way to a 33-28 win but failed to cover the number as 14-point favorites in Bloomington. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Hoosiers in Happy Valley and had another challenging contest escaping with a 34-27 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. So, the short betting line for this matchup is not a surprise given the recent history between these programs.

The Lions are a definite contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP) this season. Like the previous five seasons in the B-10’s East Division, the first step along the CFP path for the Lions will lead through the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines.

Currently, in the East Division, the Buckeyes are the favorites with futures odds of -200. The Lions find themselves in second place in the futures standings and are getting +350 at many sportsbooks. The Wolverines are in third and are getting +450 in the futures market. So, those futures lines reflect how much better the Buckeyes are than the Lions and Wolverines. Despite this fact, betting the Lions to win the East Division is a strong wager to make.

The Buckeyes project to be an excellent team, but upsets frequently occur in college football. The Lions returns 15 starters from a team that went 11-2 straight-up (SU), 7-6 ATS, and finished at No 9 in the final AP Top 25 poll. Eight of those starters are on offense, including quarterback Sean Clifford, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and four-of-five offensive linemen. The team elected eight captains in Clifford, Freiermuth, center Michal Menet, defensive end Shaka Toney, safety Lamont Wade, linebacker Jesse Luketa, safety Jonathan Sutherland, and punter/kicker Jordan Stout. The Lions possess excellent team leadership, experience, and talent that makes them a contender to win the Big Ten Conference this season.

The machine learning models have many projections using several performance measures that overwhelmingly favor the Lions to win this matchup by double-digits.

The Lions have one of the most balanced and explosive offensives in the nation. They are expected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. In previous home games installed as favorites and meeting these measures has earned the Lions a perfect 11-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark for 82% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points as a Best Bet.

Tulsa vs South Florida

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

This betting system supports Tulsa and has earned a solid 82-41 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on road favorites between 10 and 20 points

2.       Facing a host with a struggling defense allowing 31 or more PPG

3.       and after two games in which 60 or more points were scored by both teams in each game.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. Tulsa is an outstanding 42-4 SU record and 33-12-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points installed as a road favorite and 5-0 ATS since 2016.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.

The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place.

In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now.

The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday.

The Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal.

The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup.

A scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers.

This betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system.

1.       Bet on road teams.

2.       The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each.

3.       The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers.

When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points.

Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet.

Arkansas State vs Appalachian State
8:30 ET, October 22, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on Arkansas State

App State last played in a 52-21 win over Campbell on September 26 and have to belevie there will be rust on both the offensive and defensive units. Arkansas State are playing their fourth game in 19 days and their offense ranks among the best in the nation in flash stats, but have played a weaker schedule than the SEC teams, for instance. App State has played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State and the line is off by a TD based on the maching learning metrics.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 31-10 ATS record for 78% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements for the system are:

1.       Bet on road underdogs.  

2.       covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

3.       winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

The machine learning models predict that Arkansas State will score at least 28 points. When scoring 28 points they have earned an outstanding 70-13 SU record for 84% wins and 59-22-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. When scoring 28 or more points as a 10-point underdog has earned a 2-3 SU record, BUT a perfect 5-0 ATS mark that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

7-Star Best Bet and add no more than a 2* amount on the money line.  

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
1:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots.

This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin.

The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense.  Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing.

The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears

The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch.

DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games  are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams

There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring.

1.         Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

2.         Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game.

3.         The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game.

The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements.

1.         Bet on underdogs, including pick-em.

2.         The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

3.         The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers.

4.         The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover.

The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick:

The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game.  

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

8:00 PM EST, October 17, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Georgia Bulldogs

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 34-13 ATS record good for 72% winning bets and 27 of the 34 ATS wins covered the spread by at least 7.5 points. The requirements are to underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a double-digit win over a conference rival and is facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 34 points or more.

The machine learning models project that the Bulldogs will score a minimum of 27 points and gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards. In past games in which the Bulldogs met or exceeded these performance measures in road games has produced a 23-3 SU recpord for 89% wins and 19-7 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2010; 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

Nick Saban is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in home games installed as 7-point or smaller favorite as the coach of the Tide.

Mississippi vs Arkansas
3:30 PM EST, October 17, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Arkansas Razorbacks

Razorbacks are 25-12 ATS in home games facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game.

This system has gone 35-10 ATS  78% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet pn any team that is facing an opponent that is getting outscored by 7 or more PPG and has scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games.

The machine learning models project that the Razorbacks will score at least 28 points and gain average of 6.9 YUPPL. In past home games in which the Razorbacks met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them an outstanding 17-8 ASTS record for 68% winning bets and a 7-1 ATS 89% record when facing an SEC foe.

Louisville vs Notre Dame
2:20 PM EST, October 17, 2020

Scott Satterfield’s offense may not be very efficient, but it sure is explosive. The Cardinals are a top-12 team in passing and rushing explosiveness but rank in the bottom half of college football in Passing and Rushing Success Rate.

The inconsistencies on offense can really be boiled down to their offensive line play, as they’ve allowed 14 sacks and 40 tackles for loss in their first four games.

The Cards have done most of their damage through the air with quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a legit dual-threat QB, but he’s regressed from last year. Last season, Cunningham averaged 11.2 yards per attempt, but this year, he’s dropped all the way down to 8.0. He’s also only completing 58.9% of his passes, so this is a game in which I see him, having a monster game.

Notre Dame is 1-12 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 or more points.

Here is a betting system that has earned a 38-11 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet on any team with 16 or more returning starters and has lost their last two games.

Auburn vs South Carolina
12:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers

In the Tiger’s last trip to Columbia in 2011, the No 10 Gamecocks were upset by an unranked Tigers squad 16-13. The Tigers are 3-0 straight-up (SU) and 2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in Columbia, 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS at home, and 3-1-1 SU and ATS in neutral site games facing the Gamecocks.

This college football betting system supports the Tigers and has earned an outstanding 77-34-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. More recently, the system has achieved a 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the previous three seasons.

There are three requirements for this system. The first is to bet on any team averaging 280 to 330 offensive YPG on the season. The second and third is the opponent gaining 390 to 440 YPG on the season and coming off a game gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-play. That is all there is to track this highly profitable betting system.

The Tigers are -3 points via Bet MGM. The machine learning models project that the Tigers will rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards and score 28 points. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has led them to a 74-5 SU mark for 94% wins and 53-23-3 ATS record and 70% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 7 points.

Taking the previous pair of performance measures and adding games in which the Tigers were a road favorite improves the results to a perfect 12-0 SU winning these games by an average of 21 points and 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 11.4 points.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
7:00 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Buffalo Bills

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Bills will score 24 or more points and will win the turnover battle. In past games in which the Bills met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 30-2 SU record and 27-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets the last ten seasons.

Chargers vs Saints
8:15 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star play on the Chargers

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 33-9 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on a road team that is doing well in the passing game averaging 275 passing yards-per-game (YPP) on the season and are coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt.

The machine learning models project that the Chargers will gain a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-play and will outgain their opponent by a minimum of 70 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures as a road dog, they have earned a 5-1 SU record and perfect 6-0 ATS mark covering the spread by an average of 11 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
8:20 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Vikings.

I like making this a combination wager to exploit the upset by placing a 4.5* amount on the line and a 2.5-star amount on the money line. You can certainly just bet 7-star play on the spread (line) too.

Here is a money line system that has earned an solid 19-7 record for 73% winners and has made 20.1 units-perunit bet over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to on any team using the money line (MINNESOTA) that was outgained by opponent by 70 or more passing yards-per-game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score 24 or more points and will average at least 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt. In past games played over the last 5 seasons, the Vikings have earned a 19-3-1 SU record and a 18-3-2 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Titan on the JAX Jaguars

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Simple, highly profitable and easy to track.

The machine learning models project that the Jaguars will score 24 or more points and gain a minimum of 250 passing yards. I past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 9-6 SU record and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets the last five seasons. The Texans are just 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS for 28% wins when they have allowed these measures in games played over the last five seasons.

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Boston College vs Pittsburgh
4:00 PM EST, October 10, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Pitt Panthers

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 100-50 ATS record gopod for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams, which is obviously Pittsburgh, in a game in which both teams have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and is now facing a host that is coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a conference rival.  BC lost 26-22 to UNC as 14.5-point dogs last week.

Pitt defense will be on display in this matchup and the machine learning models project that BC will gain less than 5 yards per play and not exceed 100 rushing yards. In past games in which Pitt met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 33-7 SU mark and 28-10 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2006; 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State
3:30 PM EST, October 10, 2020

7-Star Titan Best Bet on the Cyclones

Coming off its first win over Oklahoma in Ames, Iowa, since 1960, No. 24 Iowa State is looking to keep its focus against a visiting Texas Tech team that is trying to find a way to win. In the last two weeks, Texas Tech (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) dropped an overtime decision to then-No. 8 Texas and then squandered a fourth-quarter lead at Kansas State.

The machine learning models project that ISU will average a minimum of 9 yards-per-pass-attempt and will score at least 31 points. In past games in which the Cyclones met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 15-3 SU record and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2006.

Florida vs Texas A&M
7-Star Titan Best Bet on the Florida Gators.

This betting system has earned a 138-83 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons and serves the active bettor well. It has produced a profit of $4,300 for the $100 bettor for a 19% return on investment (ROI). This betting system has four parameters that work together to produce consistent returns over the past 10 seasons.  The requirements are to bet against teams in the regular or postseason that were a bowl or playoff team from last year and are coming off a loss of 14 to 31 points as a ranked team.

The Aggies are coming off a loss as a ranked team to No 2 Alabama by the final score of 52-24 losing by 28 points and failing to cover the spread as 18-point road underdogs. The loss did not cause the Aggies much damage in the rankings this week as they find themselves positioned at No 14.

Tweaking this system produces a 17-7 SU record and 15-9 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets with a ranked team coming off a 14 to 31 point loss to a team ranked better than them, and is now facing another team ranked better than them in the current AP poll.

This awesome money line betting system has earned an outstanding 56-34 ATS record for 62% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,900. The requirements of this money line system are to bet on a home team using the money line off a blowout loss by 21 or more points to a conference rival that has five or more defensive returning starters than the current opponent.

This money line system has earned an 85-21 record for 80% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on a road team using the money line that is an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards-per-play, after two consecutive games in which they gained 6.3 or more yards-per-play in each of them and is now facing an opponent with a struggling defense that is allowing at least 6.25 yards-per-play.

The machine learning models project that the Gators will score 28 or more points and average at least nine yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Gators met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to earn a 40-1 SU record for 98% wins and a 32-5-2 ATS mark good for 87% winning bets that have covered by an average of 10.4 points.

When the Aggies have played games in which they allowed 28 or more points and more than 9 yards per pass attempt they have gone onto a miserable 5-27 SU record for 16% wins and 7-23-2 ATS record for 23% winning bets.

Virginia Tech vs UNC
12:00 PM EST, October 10, 2020

7-Star Play on the V-Tech Hokies

Let us start with a betting system that has earned a solid 76-35 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that has a strong ground attack averaging a minimum of 4.8 yards-per-rush and are coming off a game in which they out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 150 yards and are now facing an average rusinmg team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards-per-rush. Simply said, Tech has the better ground attach and will use that strength to control the clock and dominate time-of-possession.

The machine learning models project that the Hokies will gain at least 5 yards-per-rush and will have fewer turnovers than UNC. In past games in which the Hokies met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned a 21-1 SU record and 19-3 ATS for 86.4% winning bets.

Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech
7:00 PM EST, October 9, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert on Georgia Tech

What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?

My Machine learning models project that G-Tech will average 5.5 or more rushing yards-per-attempt and score 28 or more points. In past games in which Tech met or exceeded this par of performance measures they have gone to a 37-7 SU record and 32-9-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 2011; in home conference games installed as a dog they have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2011. Take Tech.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago IL
8:20 PM EST, October 8, 2020

What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?

My Machine learning models project that Brady will throw for more than 250 yards and that the Bucs will gain a minimum of 8.0 yards-per-pass attempt. When the Bucs have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have earned a 8-6 SU record and a 11-3 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

NE Patriots vs KC Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, KC, MO
7:05 PM EST, October 5, 2020

7-Star play on the Patriots

Betting against the Patriots has not paid off well while Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots. The Patriots are 13-18 straight-up (SU), but 19-12 against-the-spread (ATS) for 61.3% winning bets as an underdog of more than 3 points and less than 10 points since the 2000 season. If we add the ‘site’ parameter to this database query we learn that the Patriots are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in home games and 11-15 SU and 15-11 ATS for 58% winning bets since 2000.

Drilling into the data a bit further and using the type of surface the game is being played on reveals more supporting evidence. The Patriots are 3-5 SU and 5-1 ATS in games played on artificial turf under Belichick and installed as a 3 to 10 point underdog and 10-13 SU covering 61% of those 23 games for a 14-9 ATS record when the game is on grass. Arrowhead Stadium is a grass surface stadium.

Even the month when the game is played brings to light just how good betting the Patriots under Belichick as an underdog has been for backers. The chart below shows that his best month is in October, in which the Patriots have earned a solid 65-18 SU record and covered 68% of those games ATS for a 55-26-2 record.

Then the cheesecake appears. Now, that Cam has COVID-19 and will not be playing the line has made the Patriots a double-digit underdog. Belichick is 8-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in games where his Patriots team has been installed as 10 or more point underdog. 6-0 SU and ATS the last six games in this incredible stretch of games.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Last week, on Monday Night Football, we got to see the Kansas Chiefs and their head coach and former Eagle head coach Andy Reed take offensive play-calling to a new level of creativity. Current Eagles skipper Doug Pederson used to call games in a similar creative style and at times with a whole lot more risk. Those days seem to be decades ago for the Eagle fans and without the right personnel, there is little reason to expect anything more from the Eagles on both sides of the ball.

The Eagles rank 24th in the NFL gaining 1009 total offensive yards good for 334 yards-per-game. There are five teams in the NFL that have gained 1,300 total offensive yards ore more. The NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL gaining 1,472 total yards and averaging 491 yards-per-game. There is one category that the Eagles lead in the NFL rankings and it is not one to be admired. They have turned the ball over to the opponent 8 times and so far, have turned the ball over on 21% of their drives this season. No NFL team can win games with performance measures this bad.

Here is a tremendous money line betting system that supports the 49ers and will cause even greater depression for the Eagle fans. This system has gone 27-1 for 96% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line and are a mistake-free team that are committing 0.75 or fewer turnovers-per-game and after a game earning a +2 turnover advantage and now facing an opponent with a -0.75 turnover differential.

The machine learning models project that the 49ers will score at least 28 points, will gain a minimum of 6 yards-per-play, and will have fewer turnovers than the Eagles. The 49ers are 81-8 straight-up (SU), and 67-22 against-the-spread (ATS) for 75% winning bets since 1990 when scoring 28 or more bets. Further, the 49ers are a stellar 21-2 SU and 18-5 ATS for 78% winning bets in home games when they score 28 or more points and average a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play. Last, they are a 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS for 88% wining bets when they have met or exceeded the projected all three of the performance measures. Take the San Francisco 49ers as a Best Bet NFL Pick.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
4: 25 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best bet on the Raiders
7-Star best bet on the ‘UNDER’

3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’

Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season.

Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak.

The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star graded play on the Minnesota Vikings

Both teams are 0-3 and they both know that only four teams have ever made the playoffs after an 0-3 start and none after an 0-4 start. This betting system supports the Vikings and has earned a 28-7 ARTS mark good for 82% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are coming off a home cover ATS, but lost the game SU and has not won a game on the season.

This system works against the Texans and has earned a 42-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after they posted two consecutive games in which their defense forced zero turnovers.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score between 24 and 30 points and will pass for a minimum of 225 yards. In past games in which the Vikings met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a solid 13-4 SU and ATS record good for 76% wining bets  over the last five seasons. In the same manner, the Texans are 2-7 SU and ATS when they have allowed these measures to an opponent since 2016.

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Dallas Cowboys

The Public is on the Cowboys at a price of -5 and that is not surprising given that the Browns have been a dysfunctional franchise for most of the past decade. 68% of more than 1200 betting tickets that I track from 20 different sportsbooks are on the Cowboys and 87% of the total money bet on this game. So, we have the public and the larger betting professionals on the same side. This is not unusual, and it is not reflecting an extreme betting flow that would warrant a contrarian bet supporting the Browns.

The Cowboys could have been 0-3 on the season had it not been for an incredible comeback on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. It can be reasoned too, that they might have been 3-0 if a few breaks had gone there way. The one certainty is the Cowboys offense is quite good and will be difficult for any defense to contain this season.

The Cowboys have tallied 1,472 yards or 490 yards-per-game and ranks best in the NFL by 100 total yards over the second-best Green Bay Packers. While it is unlikely that the Cowboys will be able to maintain a near-500 yards-per-game offense, they will have few games in which they will not gain a minimum of 375 offensive yards. Despite all the yards gained they have scored 88 points that place them 8th in scoring offense.

Turnovers at critical points in scoring drives have been a problem for the Cowboys, but one that can be corrected. They rank first in the league having run 236 offensive plays on37 total drives. They have suffered a turnover on 16.2% of their drives ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. By way of comparison, there are four teams in the NFL that have a turnover percentage under 5% of their total drives and includes the Kansas City Chiefs (3.4%), the San Francisco 49ers (3.2%), the Tennessee Titans (3.0%), and the Green Bay Packers, who have yet to have a turnover. The Cowboys will have a greater focus on ball handling and as a result, their scoring drive numbers will increase while the turnover measures decline.

The betting lines imply a Cowboys win by the final score of 31-25 given the 56-point total and that the Cowboys are 5-point home favorites. The models project that Dallas will score 28 or more points in this game. The Cowboys are a solid 50-15 straight-up (SU) and 47-18 against-the-spread (ATS) for 72% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points in games played since 2010. In games in which they scored 28 or more points and were installed as 3.5 to 7.5-point favorites, they are 27-6 SU and 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 6.4 points.

Since 2010, the Browns are 1-16 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points and allowed 28 or more points. Take the Dallas Cowboys as an NFL Best Bet minus the points.

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Here is a solid and simple betting system that has earned an 83-43 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on underdogs that are faincg an opponent off a SU home win during the first four weeks of the regular season.

The Machine learning models project that the Dolphins will score at least 24 points and gain a minimum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the Dolphins bet or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 9-2 SU record and 8-2 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2016.

Virginia Cavaliers vs No 1 Clemson Tigers
Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2020
Clemson -28 O/U: 55 points

The top-ranked Clemson Tigers, who are 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the ACC host the Virginia Cavaliers, who own a 1-0 overall and ACC Conference record. The two teams had not faced eachother for six consecutive seasons until last seasons’ ACC Championship game and now 10 months later face eachother again. The Tigers simply dominated the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball in their 62-17 ACC Championship win and covered the spread as 29.5-point favorites quite easily.

Virginia trailed only by 7 points at the end of a 14-7 first quarter, but from there on the game was controlled by the Tigers. Clemson returning QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 302 yards completing 16 of 22 passes including 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. All combined, he earned a ridiculously high QB rating of 248. Overall, the Tigers outgained the Cavaliers by 232 offensive yards and forced three turnovers and did not turn the ball over.

I have found over my 26 years of sports data research, predictions, and picks that meaningful data points can be obtained from look at the previous game’s boxes score. Hence, the wording of What’s Next for a team coming off specific performance measures.

The Cavaliers are coming off a strong start to their 2020 season with a 30-20 win over Duke University and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home favorites. They gained 185 rushing yards on 46 attempts for a 4.02 yards-per-rush ratio. QB Brennan Armstrong had an inconsistent game throwing for 269 yards but completing 53% of his 45 pass attempts for 24 completed passes. He averaged just 4.9 yards-per-pass-attempt including 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

So, what’s next for the Cavaliers coming off this game based on their performances. The Cavaliers as road double-digit underdogs are 6-33 straight-up (SU) for 15% wins. 19-18-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 51.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ is 20-19 for 51% in games played following a game in which they averaged 4.2 or fewer rushing yards-per-attempt since 2006. Not much revealed one way or the other from just that alone. If we filter the data to include games over the last five seasons the Cavaliers are 0-12 SU, 7-5 ATS for 58% winning bets, and the ‘UNDER’ has earned a 7-5 winning record.

Combine Cavalier Rushing Yards and Turnover Margin

When combining rushing yards per attempt and turnover margin the brilliant College Football database reveals that the Cavaliers are 4-7 SU for 36% wins, 4-7 ATS, and 8-3 ‘OVER’ for 73% winning bets. So, now I have a possible lean to bet the ‘OVER’. But we have only just begun to drill the data.

The Tigers are 15-4 ATS when competing against a conference foe in games played spanning the last three seasons. They had half-time leads of 14 or more points in their last two games. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after leading their previous two games by 14 or more points at the half in games played over the last three seasons.

The Tigers offense is looking quite good noting that they scored 20 or more points in the first half of each of the first two games this season. So, the Tigers are a 13-3 ATS following two straight games scoring 20 or more points in the first half in games played over the last three seasons.

So, here we get into a formidable team situation supporting a bet on the Tigers. Teams that ranked in the Top-5 and did not cover the spread in their last two games and are now favored by 20 or more points and facing an opponent off a SU win are an impressive 21-1 SU for 96% wins, 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ 10-9-1 for 53% in games played since 2006.

What Does the Machine Learning Project for This Game?

The machine learning models predict a near certainty that the Tigers will score 28 or more points in this game. Teams ranked 5 or higher in the polls and score 28 points are 743-74 SU for 91% wins, 490-295-16 ATS for 62.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a solid 404-267-20 record in game splayed since 2006.  More specifically, when the Tigers are 47-1 SU for 98% wins, 32-14-1 ATS for a money-making 70% winning bets, and an even 23-23-1 record on the total in games played since 2016. 

Take the Clemson Tigers and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet

No 7 Auburn Tigers vs No 4 Georgia Bulldogs
Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
7:30 PM EST, October 3, 2020
Georgia -6.5   o/u: 45

This is a matchup of nationally ranked SEC Conference Titans squaring off in Athens, GA Saturday Night with a lot on the line.  Speaking of the line, the Georgia Bulldogs are a 6.5-point home favorite, but the early betting flows sees the professionals backing the Auburn Tigers. The number of betting tickets is even at 50-50, but 75% of the money is on the Tigers and the line will move to a price of 6 points.

The Tigers are 21-17 straight-up for 55% wins, but a money-burning 14-23 ATS for 38% winning bets when coming off a game allowing 14 or fewer points. The news from the database queries improves to 12-8 SU for 60% winning bets and 13-7 ATS for 65% winning bets coming off a game where the offense averaged at least 5.5 yards-per-play, had 1 or zero turnovers and play on the road against a conference foe in games played since 2010.

This money line betting system has earned an 54-57 record for just 49% winners but has averaged a +220-dog wager in making the $100 bettor a profit of $4,930 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between +150 and +300 in a game where both teams have returned five or fewer offensive starters. Since 1990, this simple betting system has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,430. This system supports the Auburn Tigers.

The models project that the Tigers will force the Bulldogs into at least two turnovers, will have one or zero turnovers and will rush for 150 or more yards. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 29-1 SU record and a 21-8-1 ATS record producing 72.4% winning bets that have covered by an average of 9.3 points.

The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS when on the road installed as a dog and meeting or exceeded the previously mentioned performance measures. Further, the best of the best is the fact that when the Tigers meet the projections mentioned above while playing a conference foe they are a perfect 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 16 points.

No 13 Texas A&M Aggies vs No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
3:30 PM EST, October 3, 2020
7-Star Titan on the Texas A&M Aggies

There are few matchups that are more enjoyable to watch then when two ranked teams out of the SEC Conference lock horns. This is one of them when No 13 Texas A&M Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, who are favored by 17 points. Both teams are 1-0 overall and 1-0 in the SEC. The Tide got off to fast 28-3 start hosting the Missouri Tigers and coasted to the 38-19 win but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. The Aggies got off to unorthodox 7-5 half-time before getting control of the game in the second stanza against a determined Vanderbilt Commodores team to win 17-12 but failed to cover the spread as 25.5-point favorites.

Here is a College Football betting system that has earned a 75%-win percentage on a 39-13 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The betting system requires us to bet on road teams that scored and allowed 17 or fewer points in their last game and are now facing a host, who led by 17 or more points at the half in their last game. Over the last three seasons this system has been a near-imperfect 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets.

For a matchup of SEC teams, a posted total of 52-points is low scoring and does reflect the strength of both defenses in this matchup. So, the betting lines indicate a final score of 34-17 based on the Tide favored by 17 points and the posted total of 52-points. The projections call for the Aggies to hold the Tide to 28 or fewer points and not have more turnovers than the Tide.

In past games in which the Aggies met or exceeded these performance measures in SEC matchups they have earned an outstanding 24-3 SU record and a 22-3 ATS mark for 88% winning bets since 2006. When they achieved these performance measures in road SEC games, they are 12- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 12 points.

The Tide is 4-3 SU and an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home conference games when they have not scored more than 28 points and lost the turnover battle.

No 12 North Carolina Tarheels take to the road and to visit Chestnut Hill to take on the ACC rival Boston College Eagles. The Tarheels were ranked 18th in the 2020 preseason poll and are now ranked 12th after their dominating 31-6 win over conference rival Syracuse Orange. They were installed as 24-point home favorites and covered that spread by a single point. This is the highest ranking the Tarheels have enjoyed since being ranked 8th in Week 13 of the 2015 season.

The Tarheels are installed as 14.5-point road favorite with a posted total of 54 points. The betting public accounts for more than 70% of the bets placed on the Tarheels, but account for 48% of the total money bet on the game of the 20 sportsbooks that I track. Of the parlay bets made on this game 72% are betting the Tarheels and the ‘OVER’. So, this is a sign of irrational betting with so many obsessed with the Tarheels and provides a contrarian type of bet on Boston College.

The Tarheels have not played a game in three weeks after a non-conference game against Charlotte University was cancelled due to COVID-19 related illnesses to Charlotte’s offensive unit. The layoff will not have negative impact to their performance in this game. They have the best depth on the roster in many seasons and have a sophomore QB in Sam Howell that plays at a level far beyond his years. For the 2019 season he completed 259 of his 422 pass attempts for 61.4%, gaining 3,641 yards including 38 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions.

The total was lined at 65 points in the Syracuse game, which implied a higher scoring game than what was the result. The Tarheels sputtered during the first half and held a 7-3 lead. It was not until the fourth quarter that they got things ignited and scored 21 unanswered points. Howell was the main reason for the offensive explosion and for the game completed 25 of 34 passes for 75% completions, 295 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Syracuse does have an elite-level defensive unit, so it is not concerning that Howell and the offense had some rust to get rid of.

The Tarheels ground attack was dominating in the fourth quarter and helped open the play action passing scheme. RB Javonte Williams had 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts including 3 touchdowns. RB Michael Carter had just 7 touches but gained 78 rushing yards for an 11.1 yards-per-rush average. WR Dyami Brown had a huge day catching 6 balls for 94 yards and a 15.7 yards-per-catch average.

The Tarheels and head coach Mack Brown have a luxury consisting of 10 of 11 returning starters on offense including their QB Howell and return 7 from last year’s defense. In this matchup the defense will get the accolades being matched against an Eagle offense that returns 6 offensive starters and 9 on defense. The Tarheel defense is vastly better than the Eagle defense and despite having 9 returning defensive starters I do not see the Eagles containing the Tarheel offense for all four quarters.

The Tarheels gained 160 rushing yards on 35 carries against one of the better defensive fronts seven in the ACC and will gain even more than that against the Eagle defense.

The 28-point scoring level is a pivotal one with many teams having much better results straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) when they score 28 or more points versus game sin which they do not. The machine learning models project that the Tarheels will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Tarheels scored 28 or more points has earned a 175-36 SU record for 83% wins, 142-55 ATS record good for 72% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ winning the money 77% on a 64-19-4 record since 1980.

My highly intelligent database reveals that the Tarheels are 17-1 SU and winning these games by an average of 25 points, and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 7.9 points in road games and favored by double-digits.

Take the North Carolina Tarheels and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet

Denver (0-3) vs NY Jets (0-3)
8:20 PM EST, October 1, 2020
Thursday Night Football

7-Star MLB Best Bet on the Jets

Let us start with a proven betting system that has earned a 37-12 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team with a terrible turnover metric farcing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and are coming off a game in which they had a -2 or worse turnover margin.

The machine learning models project that the Jets defense will get the job done tonight allowing 85 or fewer rushing yards. 20 or fewer points, and contain the Bronco offense to less than 300 yards. In past games, in which Denver’s offense had performances equal to or worse then these projections they have posted a losing 7-39 SU record and 7-38-1 ATS mark good for 15% wins since 1990 and are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 11 points since 2016.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Baltimore Ravens

Travel related issues for the Chiefs as they are coming off a trip to LA and defeated the Chargers in a hard-fought 23-20 win and failed to cover the spread as 9-point favorites. They now play another road trip to the East Coast to face an excellent Baltimore Ravens team. Last September the Ravens visited Arrowhead and lost 33-28  to the Chiefs and failed to cover as 4-point underdogs. So, revenge is clearly a factor for the Ravens, in what may be a preview of the AFC Conference Championship game.

So, teams that are coming off a road win installed as a favorite against an opponent on the West Coast and is now traveling again to face an opponent on the East Coast and a team they defeated last season are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS failing to cover the spread by 9.4 points.

The machine learning models project that the Ravens will win this game by double digits. The Ravens are projected to outrush the Chiefs by at least a margin of 2:1 (more than twice as many rushing yards). In addition, they are projected to gain at least 1.2 yards-per-play more than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Ravens doubled their opponent rushing yards they have gone on to earn a 44-3 SU mark and 33-14-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. When the Ravens have doubled the opponents rushing yards and outgained them by an average of 1.2 YPPL they have earned a 37-1 SU record and 34-4 ATS for 90% winning bets.

4:25 PM EST, September 27, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet on the Detroit Lions

This betting system is incredible and has produced a 25-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. So, it is a very rare one, but when this system is activated, it is for very strong reasons. The system requires us to bet on road dogs that are facing a host that allowed 24 or more points on defense last season and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.

The machine learning tools project that the Lions will score 24 or more points and average a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play. In past games when they met or exceeded these measures as an underdog they have gone to a solid 27-12 ATS record for 69% winning bets.

Raiders vs Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Las Vegas Raiders

It has been 19 years since Jon Gruden was head coach of the Raiders and lost 16-13 in a highly scrutinized playoff game in Foxborough. Late in the fourth quarter it appeared that Tom Brady, who at the time few people knew his name, had fumbled the ball. Upon further review the official reversed the decision and scored it as an incomplete pass under the obscure “luck rule”. For Jon Gruden that single play has never faded in his memory since his Raiders had control of the game and were winning.

The Raiders have the personnel on both sides of the ball to be contenders for a playoff berth. They are coming off a home win installed as an underdog against a perennial playoff team in the New Orleans Saints. However, the Raiders are a money-burning 3-16 against-the-spread following a home win as an underdog since 2010. This trend by itself is not very meaningful if the present Raiders are a winning record team. That trend evolved over a period of losing seasons. So, always be careful when looking at specific team trends.

The good news is that the Raiders are a solid 19-8 ATS for 70% winning bets coming off a dominating win that featured 34 or more minutes in time-of-possession and 24 or more first downs. Further, head coach Jon Gruden is an outstanding 22-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points in all games he has coached.

In 2019, the Raiders scored 85 points in the first quarter and 110 points in the second for a total of 195 first-half points. Then the second half became a challenge and in some games a disaster scoring just 27 points in the third and 76 in the fourth for a total of 103 second-half points. Their second-half output was less than what they scored in the second quarter alone last season. So far in 2020, the scoring is vastly improved averaging 34 points-per-game and have scored 34 points in each half.

The 2019 season saw far too many check down passes by QB Derek Carr. There were 156 short right, 140 short middle, and 120 short left pass attempts for a combined total of 416 pass attempts. Carr attempted 513 passes and completed 361 for a 64% completing percentage. However, only 19% of his passes thrown were beyond 20 yards and that allowed defenses to bring safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and blitz Carr.

In 2020, the Raiders have not looked for the deep ball and have an offensive scheme designed to minimize mistakes and move the chains in a physical style of play. This will open more play action pass plays because the Raiders ground attack must be respected by opposing defensive units.

The machine learning models project that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points. The Raiders when on the road are 36-44 straight-up (SU) and 55-23-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 70.5% winning bets since 1990 and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2016 when both teams score 20 or more points.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Upset Alert on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points 

The Philadelphia Eagles season is on the line having lost their first two games in horrific fashion when they host another 0-2 team in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles roster has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball and many new names will now be starters and expected to contribute significantly to this matchup. 

Those statements do not address the monumental problem the Eagles must solve with so many holes in the dam. Starting with the offensive line, LG Seumalo will miss several weeks with a knee injury. Pro Bowl RG Pederson is out for the year after tearing his achilleas in preseason drills.  The Eagles are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball. The run defense is awful, too many drives stall and end up not scoring, no discipline defending play action pass plays. The Rams, who defeated the Eagles last week, led the NFL with the most play action pass plays run in 2019. So, for the Eagle defense to not be prepared for that scheme is bizarre indeed.

So, we know the Bengals are road underdogs of 6-points and lost 35-30 on the road at the Cleveland Browns, but managed to get an against-the-spread (ATS) win as 6-point dogs. The Eagles were throttled 37-19 by the Rams and never led in the game.

Having massive databases at my fingertips is a luxury when working on matchup and situational analyses. So, I bet you wanted to know how 0-2 SU and ATS teams that were favored in both games in Week 1 and 2 have done in Week 3. Ewell, these slow starters are 9-7 SU for 56% wins and 9-6-1 ATS for 60% winning bets since 1990.  If the team lost at home in Week 2 are 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS for 69% winners if playing at home in Week 3. Lastly, if these 0-2 SU and ATS teams were a playoff team from the previous season they are 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets.

For his career Wentz is 32-27 SU, 28-31 ATS, and the ‘Over’ is 29-28 with two pushes. In last week’s loss to the Rams Wentz had no touchdown passes and marked the 8th time in his career that he recorded zero TD passes. That horrific performance level accounts for 14% of the 59 games he has played and must improve if he is to keep his starting QB job at the NFL level.

The good news, though, is that Wentz has thrown a single TD pass in five of the seven games following a game getting shutout from the scoring endzone. In 2016 in a home game against the Falcons he had a second consecutive game with zero TD passes and only once in a road game at Seattle in 2016 did he throw more than 1 TD pass getting two of them in that game. In not one of those 7 games did he have more TD passes than interceptions. Not Once!

Florida State vs 12 Miami (FLA)
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
7:30 PM EST, September 26, 2020

This betting system has earned a losing 45-153 record for 23% SU wins and 117-75-6 ATS mark good for 61% winners over the past 15 seasons. The requirements for an active opportunity are to bet on unranked road teams facing a conference foe and installed as a 3.5 or greater underdog and facing a ranked team between game numbers 2 and 5 of the regular seasons.

Now, let us drill down through this data to determine a sub-set that has posted better results. Applying the data to only show games played in the ACC Conference produces a 5-18 SU record for 22% wins and a 15-8 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2005.

One more drill down produces a subset that has earned a 7-12 SU record for 37% wins and a jaw-dropping 16-3 ATS mark good for 84% when the team (Seminoles) is coming off a road game installed as a favorite. 

The Hurricanes are coming off a terrific 47-34 win over the Louisville Cardinals in which the Hurricanes graduate transfer QB D’Eriq King completed 18 of 30 pass attempts for 325 yards and three touchdowns. The Hurricanes are a solid 5-1 ATS coming off a game throwing for 300 or more passing yards and rushing for at least 150 yards.

However, the news is not all good given that the Hurricane defense was dominated in allowing 209 rushing yards and 309 passing yards. Hurricanes are a terrible 1-7 ATS for 11% winning bets following a game in which their defense allowed a minimum of 180 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.

The machine learning models project that the Seminoles will gain 8.5 or more yards-per-play and will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Seminoles met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn an outstanding 12-0 SU record and a 9-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 11 points.

22 Army vs 14 Cincinnati

September 26, 2020, 3:30 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on Cincinnati Bearcats

Army is off to a fast start winning and covering both games they have played. They defeated Middle Tenn State 42-0 as a 3.5-point home favorite and defeated LA-Monroe 37-7 as 24-point home favorites. The bad news for the Cadets is that they are 5-15 ATS after two consecutive games scoring at least 31 points in each and 11-27 ATS following two straight games in which they outrushed their opponents by 150 or more rushing yards in each game.

The machine learning models project that Cincinnati will score at least 28 points and allow less than 350 offensive yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 47-0 SU record and 34-10-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets since 2006 and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons.

8 Texas vs Texas Tech
Jones ATT Stadium, Lubbock, TX
3:30 PM EST, September 26, 2020

The machine learning models project that the Longhorns will gain at least 6.9 yards-per-play, score 28 or more points, and have fewer turnovers than Texas Tech. In past games in which the Longhorns have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets that have covered by an average of 13 points.

12:00 PM EST, September 26, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers

Bo Nix, son of the Auburn legend QB, set school freshman records of 2,542 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes and will be even better than that this season. For a freshman in the SEC, Nix certainly took care of the ball with just six interceptions. He enters the season with a school-record streak of 191 thrown passes without an interception, which is the second-best active streak nationally behind Clemson star Trevor Lawrence (276).

The Tigers (9-4, 5-3 SEC in 2019) also reached the 50-point mark four times during Nix's initial campaign. That ties for second in program history behind the six 50-point outings Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton put on the board during the school's 2010 national championship season.

The machine learning tools project that the Tigers will gain at least 150 rushing yards and score at least 27 points and average at least 9 yards-per-pass play. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 49-3 SU record and a 36-15-1 ATS mark for 71% winning bets since 2006 and 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
8:20 PM EST, September 24, 2020
7-Star NFL Titan on the Miami Dolphins

Not one week goes by that the Miami media does not mention the calming influence and command of the huddle that Fitzpatrick bring to the team. Isaiah Ford was a Week 13 call-up from the practice squad in Week 13 last year, he has benefitted the most from Fitzpatrick’s extreme knowledge of the game. Since Week 13 of last season, Ford has caught 30 passes on 44 targets gaining 325 yards and averaging a solid 7.4 yards-per-catch.

In last week’s loss to the Bills, Fitzpatrick completed 31 of 47 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. All his metrics combined for an impressive 100.3 quarter-back-rating (QBR) against one of the better defensive units in the AFC. Ford was targeted more than DeVante Parker and Ford will steadily become an increasing part of the offensive game plan. A definite must-have on your DFS NFL team.

This betting system has earned a solid 86-50 ATS record good for 63% winning bets and a money-making 20% return-on-investment (ROI) spanning the past 15 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on teams in the first four weeks of the seasons facing a conference foe installed as dogs of 1.5 to 6 points and a team that won five or fewer games in the previous season.

So, it gets better when we drill down through the data and add game location as a parameter. For teams that are on the road and meeting the parameters above improves the betting system to 38-17-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Not satisfied yet. When the field surface is factored in, which is grass in the confines of TIAA Field, the road warrior is an impressive 27-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Dolphins will have more passing yards. will average 6.2 yards-per-play and will have a higher YPPL ratio than the Jaguars. In past games when the Dolphins have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a solid 21-10-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets and a 28.5% ROI in games played over the last 15 seasons.

UAB vs South Alabama
Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
7:30 PM EST, September 24, 2020

On Thursday Night at Hancock Whitney Stadium the C-USA UAB Blazers will be the guests of the Sun Belt South Alabama Jaguars with both teams coming off losses. The Blazers were man-handled at Miami 31-14 and failed to cover the generous 15.5 point spread back on September 10. The Jaguars are coming off a tough 27-24 home loss to Tulane, but easily covered the spread as 11.5-point underdogs. The Blazers are 1-1 versus the total line while the Jaguars have seen both of their games go ‘UNDER’ the total line.

The Blazers head coach Bill Clark is excited about the season given that he has 18 of the 22 starters from last season returning to play this one. The Blazers return nine starters on offense including their quarterback and red shirt junior Tyler Johnston III, who has been their starter for the past three seasons. In 2019, he threw for 2,250 yards on 59% completions including 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Cutting down the number of interceptions and improving the touchdown-to-interception ratio were addressed during the off season. He was off to a vastly improved start to the season before injuring his shoulder and is out indefinitely.

The biggest asset on the team is the return of all five starting offensive linemen from last season. The OL unit is by far the most complex and most difficult for any group of five teammates to work together to make the most out of every possession. UAB has four red shirt Seniors and a red shirt Junior on the offensive line and their chemistry is extremely positive having the experience of playing together for many games. Having an experienced QB and OL has proven to reduce mistakes and execute game plans at a much higher level. So, backup sophomore QB Bryson Lucero will have added confidence because of the experienced OL.

Here is an impeccable betting system that has earned a 22-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and 15-2 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. The instructions required are to play on any team off an extremely tough loss of three or fewer points during the first four weeks of the regular season. An amazing 58% of these games covered the spready a minimum of 7 points.

I have previously discussed the importance of 28 points and the implications for NCAA football teams when they score or more or allow more than 28 points in a game. There are the high-powered offenses every year, like the LSU Tigers, in 2019 that will have a higher pivot point for points scored and allowed.  Overall, I have found the 28-point pivot to be identified by the machine learning models more often.

So, the projections call for the Jaguars to score 28 or more points, gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards, will have more rushing yards than the Blazers, and average at least 1.0 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Jaguars scored 28 or more points they have earned a solid 26-13 SU record and 23-15-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2012. The Blazers are a miserable 17-116 SU for 13% wins and 40-81-2 ATS for 33% winning bets since 2012. Worse yet is that the Blazers are 1-8 SU and ATS for 11.1% winners when installed as a road favorite and allowing the host to score 28 or more points.

The Jaguars are a robust money making 15-4 SU for 79% wins and 11-6-2 ATS for 65% winning bets when outgaining their opponent by at least 1.25 yards-per-play since 2012 and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS spanning games played over the last three seasons.

8:15 PM EST, September 21, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints

In Week 1 the Saints faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their new QB Tom Brady. The Saints were fired up to send a message to the Bucs and the NFC Conference that Mr. Brady was not the new sheriff in the NFC South with a 34-23 SU and ATS win. Brees completed 60% of his 30 pass attempts for 160 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He took 97% of the snaps running 67 total plays and was sacked only once.

Brees and the Saints are 14-8 SU and ATS for 64% winning bets following a home win in which Brees threw for fewer than 190 passing yards. The Saints with Brees starting are 25-18 SU and 25-17-1 ATS for 60% winning bets coming off a home ATS win and playing their next game on a grass surface and 6-3 ATS for 67% ATS winning bets since 2016. The Saints are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets when coming off a home ATS win and facing a team that was not in the playoffs of the previous season. Last, Saints are an impeccable 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets when installed as a road favorite and facing a team that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season.

This betting system is active for a bet on the Saints tonight and has earned a remarkable 28-5 ATS mark for 85% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The system requires us to be on road teams that are facing an opponent that had a struggling defense in the previous season that allowed an average of 24 points-per-game and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.

The machine learning models project that the Saints will average at least 7.0 yards-per-pass-attempt and will have at least 5 more first downs than the Raiders. The Saints are 54-10 SU for 84% wins and 54-9-1 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures since 2002.

Kansas City vs LA Chargers

7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Chargers

Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Chargers were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 7-1 SU record and a 7-1 ATS record covering by an average of 14 points for a robust 67% ROI. Also, the Chargers are 51-14 SU and 40-24-1 ATS in home games and gaining at least 5.75 or more yards-per-play and when a home dog they are 8-3 for 72% ATS.

Buffalo vs Miami

September 20, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Miami Dolphins

Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Dolphins were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 13-3 SU record and a 13-1-2 ATS record covering by an average of 9.8 points for a robust 68% ROI.

1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet on the Detroit Lions

Here is a betting system to start things off that has earned a 50-21 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on underdogs that are facing an opponent that averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play last season and is coming off a stellar offensive game in which they gained 400 or more yards.

We were on the Packers last week in their road upset win over the Vikings, but now against them. Teams ebb and flow and when they are coming off a strong outing and above average performance levels there is a propensity to revert back to the mean. Detroit outplayed Chicago last week on both sides of the ball and found a way to lose that game. They will not do that again in this matchup.

The machine learning projections call for the Lions to win the turnover batter, have more first downs, and average at least 4.7 yards-per-rush. In past games in which they met or exceeded those performance measures they went on to earn a perfect 20-0 ATS mark 19-1 SU and covered the spread by an average of 13 points.

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
Atlanta Falcons 7-Star Best Bet Titan

Both teams come into this game off losses and no one ever wants to start 0-2 out of the gate. The Cowboys had a tough game against a physical Rams team, but their inability to convert on third downs (3-12 25%) and move the chains was the main reason they lost. Time-of-possession was heavily in favor of the Rams, who had an 11:16 edge, but Dallas ran 69 plays to the Rams 72 plays. The Rams had a 10-minute edge in the first quarter with the remaining three quarters equal in time-of-possession.

The Rams did convert well on third downs (8-17 53%) and had more scoring chances than Dallas attained. One of those scoring chances ended with Goff throwing an interception, which was the only turnover of the game for either team. Dallas had just one drive in the first quarter that started on their own 26 and ended 6 plays later their 48-yard line. The Rams took their first possession of the season and drove 70 yards on 7 plays to score a touchdown. Their second drive of the quarter ended at the Dallas 10-yard line after missing a short field goal attempt.

This system is one you want to record and use for every NFL season as it has earned an incredible 27-5 against-the-spread record good for 84% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requires are to bet on underdogs that were excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing-yards-per-game (PYPG) last season and after a game in which their defense allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt (PYPA). This combination of performance parameters has recorded a near-perfect 17-1 ATS over the last five seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will score more than 27 points, pass for at least 260 yards, and will not be outgained by more than 65 total yards. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 33-7 SU mark and 29-10-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets.

Wake returns just three starters on offense but return eight starters on defense. Despite the lack of expereince on offense, they held up well against Clemson, who has a one of the best defensive units in the nation. They do return eight starters on defense that will match up quite well against a solid Wolfpack offensive unit.

Wake played many high-scoring games in 2019 and as a result the defense was spending too much time on the field and gave up too many fourth quarter scores. The offense is geared towards moving the chains and keeping the opposing offense off the field, which is the winning recipe facing the Wolfpack.

Here is a proven betting system that has earned a solid 57-22 ATS record since 1990 and instructs us to play on road teams in the first four weeks of the season that have a new starting QB and was a bowl team that lost the last two games of the season.

The projections call for Wake to score at least 28 points and throw for an average of at least 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt. In past games in which Wake has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 20-0 SU record and an amazing 18-1 ATS mark for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 9.5 points.

Take the Wake Forest Demon Deacons as a Best Bet Upset Alert this Saturday.

7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Miami Hurricanes

Last season, the Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 55-27 with Quarterback Jarren Williams throwing for a school-record six touchdowns. After that game, it appeared that the Hurricanes were on the national stage, but Williams never even came close to matching that performance over the remainder of the season. He transferred to Garden City Community College in Kansas to hopefully finish out his NCAA career.

The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent from last season’s team due to the NFL draft and players opting out of the season account of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for those choosing to play has brough them great opportunities and the Hurricanes starting QB D’Eriq King, who is a graduate transfer from the University of Houston, is making the most of it. He has an active NCAA-record scoring streak of having at least one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown in 16 consecutive games. So, the Hurricanes offense under new OC Rhett Lashlee, will look to play fast and optimize the duel threat athleticism of King.

The Louisville defense allowed three scoring touchdowns last week in their 35-21 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last week. However, two of these scores involved drives of 1 and 4 yards, after failed special team plays. One of the turnovers was a dropped ball by the punter and then a blocked punt. So, taking those miscues into account, the Louisville defense may have allowed 10 or fewer points.

The defense also got a turnover on downs at the goal line and had 11 tackles-for-loss and reflects consistent gap discipline and penetration they attained. This unit will have to play even better against the Hurricane offense that suddenly has many weapons and King, who is even being mentioned in Heisman conversations.

The following team situational results are based on their games last week. The Hurricanes are 6-1 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) after a game in which they rushed for 300 or more yards since the 2011 season. Moreover, the Hurricanes are a stout 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64% winning bets when out rushing their previous opponent by 125 or more yards since 2011.

The Cardinal is just 18-28 ATS for 39% winning bets following a game where their defense forced no more than one turnover in games played since 2011. Moreover, they are 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when the next game has been at home and a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS when ranked in the Top-25 poll.

This money line betting system has earned an outstanding 41-31 record for 56% winning wagers and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,910 over the last 10 seasons. The betting system instructs us to bet on road team using the money line that are facing an opponent coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 175 yards and has at least eight returning starters on offense during the first four weeks of the regular season.

The current lines showing Louisville favored by 2.5 points and total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Louisville win. However, the machine learning projections sees the final score favoring the Hurricanes if they can contain the Cardinal to fewer than 28 points. When the Hurricanes have been installed as a road dog and have held the host to fewer than 28 points has produced a 16-12 SU record and a jaw-dropping 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winning bets since 1990.

The Cardinal is just 10-4 SU and 1-13 ATS when they have been a home favorite and scored fewer than 28 points in games played since 2011. The ‘UNDER’ is a perfect 14-0 in these games.

14 University of Central Florida vs Georgia Tech­
Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
3:30 PM EST, September 19, 2020
Coverage: ABC

The No 14 UCF Knights will take to the field for the first time in the 2020 season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went into Tallahassee as a 13-point underdog and upset the Florida State Seminoles 16-13. Their confidence will be high knowing they have another opportunity to upset a ranked opponent in the Knights. The Jackets find themselves installed as 7.5-point home underdogs with a over/under line of 63-points. These lines imply a final score of 35-28 with the Knights winning.

The Jackets return nine offensive and 10 defensive starters. The biggest story coming out of last week’s win is all about the superior play of freshman quarterback Curtis Sims, who became the first-ever freshman QB to win a season opener and is the first fresh to start at Georgia Tech since Reggie Ball did in the 2003 season. He performed more like an experienced senior throwing for 277 passing yards on 24 completions, which is the highest since 2003. So, with all five offensive linemen back Sims will get solid protection and run blocking from this experienced unit and that is a major advantage for the Jackets in this matchup.

The defense is an even bigger story for the Jackets having held the Seminoles to just 307 total yards and 3.8 yards-per-play. The unit also forced three turnovers with their aggressive hard-hitting play. Linebacker Quez Jackson had an interception and led the team with nine tackles including 7 solo tackles. One fumble was forced and recovered by LB David Curry, who also had seven total tackles including four solo ones. The second fumble was recovered by defensive lineman Djimon Brooks, who also had three total tackles. There were three additional fumbles forced, but the Seminoles managed to recover them. In case you wanted to know, the most fumbles the Seminoles have had in a game is 7 and fumbles lost is 4 in all games played since 1990.

The Jacket defense played with a disciplined focus and were never caught out of position throughout the entire game. Head Coach Geoff Collins knows this is a solid recipe to contain the UCF juggernaut offense.

This betting system has earned an amazing 59-25 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 76% winning tickets over the last 30 seasons. The system instructs us to be on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing an opponent in the first four weeks of the season that won their last three games of the previous season.

The key to this game and for the Jackets to cover the spread is to keep UCF from scoring more than 28 points and not get into a shooting match with them. In past games, in which the Jacks and their opponent both score 27 or more points they have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS for 10% winning bets. The 28-point level is a pivot point for the majority of NCAAF teams and not just for this matchup.

So, the projections call for the Jackets to score 27 or more points and have at least 5 more first downs than the Knights. In games played in which the Jackets scored 27 or more points and had more than 5 first downs than their opponent has seen them go on to record a 49-4 SU record and 40-11 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10.3 points.

Take the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert.

Duke vs Boston College

September 19, 2020, 12:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on Boston College

Here is a solid betting system that supports BC and has earned an 86-34 ATS record good for 71% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. The system instructs us to bet against any team after being outgained by 125 total yards in their previous game and with an inexperienced QB in the first four weeks of the regular season. If the play against team (Duke) is a home favorite the system improves to 36-11 for 77% ATS winning bets.

The machine learning models project that BC will rush for at least 250 rushing yards and average at least 5.0 yards-per-rush. In past games in which BC met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 21-3 SU record and a 20-4 ATS record that covers the spread by an average of 10.3 points. If BC was installed as an underdog they have posted a 7-2 SU record and 9-0 ATS mark covering by an average of 16.3 points.

8:20 PM EST, September 17, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Bengals

The Browns first home game of the year will take place tonight and they could use a packed house to support them to a much-needed win. They will have to do that on their own. It is not the best of situations for the Browns, who were hammered by the Ravens last week. Teams that are playing at home after failing to cover the spread by at least 23 points and won fewer than seven games last season are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS for 35% in the first five weeks of the regular season.

Here is a betting system that supports the Bengals and has earned a solid 103-52 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 1990 and instructs us to plat on road underdogs facing a conference foe that had a losing record in their previous season. This system has recorded a nice money-making 13-4 ATS record over the last three seasons and 26-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The machine learning tools are projecting that the Bengals will gain at least 125 rushing yards and average at least 7 yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Bengals have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 52-15-1 SU record for 78% wins and 49-17-2 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2000. The Browns are 2-29-1 SU and 8-24 ATS for 25% when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures in games played since 2010.

7:15 PM EST, September 14, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the NY Giants

The Steelers under head coach Tomlin has been a terrific franchise, but they have been slow starters in September games – at east against the spread where Tomlin-led Steelers teams are just 8-19 ATS in road games over the first four weeks of the season.

Ny Giants tackle Nate Solder opted out of the season and there are three new offensive lineman set to start tonight. They are elite athletes and have excellent skills in first round draft pick Andrew Thomas 6-5 315 from Georgia, RT Cam Fleming 6-6 320 from Stanford, and center Nick Gates 6-5 307 from Nebraska. I do believe this youthful OL has the athleticism and quickness to contain the Steeler defensive front and open up holes for Barkley to dart through untouched. Once Barkley gets into the open field he is extremely difficult to bring down by any defensive unit. This will then open up play action pass plays catching the Steelers in man coverage or in Sam-Will blitz schemes.

From the machine learning tools and models the Giants are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards, have more first downs than the Steelers, and have more total offensive yards than the Steelers. In past games in which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 89-16 SU record and 85-20 ATS for 81% winning bets since 1990; 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS since 2015. The Steelers are 3-3-1 SU and 1-6 ATS the spread failing to cover by an average of 8 points when their opponent has gained 125 or more rushing yards and are installed as road favorites since 2015.

Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams

8:20PM EST, September 13, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Los Angeles Rams

From the machine learning tools, the Rams are projected to score at least 27 points, average more than 7 yards-per-pass attempt, and gain 400 or more total offensive yards. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these three performance measures they are 48-20 ATS and 62-9 SU winning the game by an average of 12 points; 28-10-2 ATS when in home games and an amazing 12-1-1 ATS mark and covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points.

1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Green Bay Packers

Let us start with a solid betting system that has earned a 100-53 ATS record for 65% winners over the last 35 seasons and instructs us to play on road dogs that are playing a divisional foe that had a struggling defense last season that allowed >= 5.4 yards-per-play. This betting system has earned a solid 10-3 ATS record over the last three seasons and 19-7 ATS over the last five seasons and 39-20 ATS over the last 10 seasons and reflects the strong consistent returns it has provided to backers.

Green Bay won both meetings against the Vikings and have many favorable matchups on both sides of the ball.

From the machine learning tools and models the Packers are projected to outgain the Vikings on the ground and have a better, more efficient yards-per-points ratio. In other words, the Packers will need fewer yards gained to score a single point on average. In past games in which the Packers met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a perfect 29-0 ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 15.6 points. Take the Packers as a 7-Star Upset Alert Titan

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

September 12, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff - 1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Coverage: FOX
Seattle favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 49-points.

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium is one of the best venues in all of sports but will remain without fans for at least the first two home games of the Atlanta Flacons schedule. The Atlanta offense has always been dangerous for most opponents and will be better this season having added running back Todd Gurley through free agency and TE Hayden Hurst, who was acquired in a trade with Baltimore.

The Falcons running game ranked 30th in the NFL gaining just 1,361 rushing yards as compared to a league average of 1806 rushing yards. Further, the Falcons ranked 29th in the NFL with just 332 rushing attempts. They went 1-7 over the first eight games and fell behind early in games forcing them to abandon most or all the run plays. When an NFL team is behind in a game, especially by two or more scores, play action gets no respect from a defense and is simply a worthless formation.

Gurley has been banged up physically over his career, but still provides a new and real run threat for all defenses to respect. His presence will provide more opportunities to use play action pass routes, which is where the addition of Hurst and his above average speed will be a huge asset this season.

The running game fell into the statistical abyss for the Falcons, which put tremendous pressure on Matt Ryan to complete difficult passes and sustain scoring drives. The Falcons through the most passes in the NFL with a number no one really likes 666 throws form scrimmage. The Cincinnati Bengals were a distant second with 617 pass attempts and by comparison the terrific Baltimore Ravens offense that led the league in scoring ranked last with 439 pass attempts. So, the Falcons can expect a much better balance of run and pass plays making it far more difficult for defensive coordinators to prepare to defend.

Matt Ryan threw just 24 passes that were targeted down the deep middle of the field. The Tampa Bay Bucs ranked first with 37 throws in this category by way of comparison. With the addition of Hurst at TE and his speed it is a sure bet you will see the middle of the field exploited by the Falcons whenever they can get Hurst in man coverage by a linebacker. The Falcons ranked 17th in the NFL running 113 pass plays using play action and gained 827 yards from those plays. By comparison, Jared Goff and the Rams ran 194 play action plays and gained a league-best 1,564 passing yards. Gurley was part of that offense.

Well, there are gaggles of them of ocurse being spit out of my vast NFL database that can go back to 1980 if it provides meaningful results. Coach Carroll is just 3-14 ATS in games played in September since being hired by the Seahawks; 2-10 ATS in road games that have occurred in the first two weeks of the season.

The Falcons are a stout 19-6 ATS in home games that occurred in the first two weeks of the season. Moreover, they are 4-0 ATS as home dogs in the first two weeks of the season spanning the last 10 seasons.

The Falcons are projected to execute at least 25 rushing plays, average at least 4.5 rushing-yards-per-attempt and attain a yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 11.5 in this matchup. The Falcons are 48-8 SU and 37-15-4 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games when they have averaged a minimum of 4.5 RYPA and executed at least 25 rushing plays. When they have achieved the rushing metrics and had a YPPT ratio of not more than 11.5, the Falcons have earned a perfect 16-0 ATS mark covering the number by an average of 12 points. 

The Seahawks when traveling on the road are a near imperfect 1-10 SU and ATS and failing to cover the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed an opponent to rush the ball for a minimum of 25 attempts, gaining average of 4.5 RYPA, and allow an opponent YPPT ratio of 11.5 or lower.

R

8:00 PM EST, September 12, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Coming off a dismal 3-8 SU 2018 season, the Hilltoppers had an impressive 9-4 SU campaign in 2019 and topped it off with a win over Western Michigan in the First Responders Bowl. Both teams have an abundance of returning starters this season. The Hilltoppers return 7 on offense and 9 on defense while the Louisville Cardinals return 8 on offense and 8 on defense. However, the difference maker in this game will be the Hilltopper defensive unit.

The Cardinals offense also has returning quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a red-shirt junior and a duel run-pass threat. He has gained 979 rusing yards with 11 touchdowns and passed for 2,538 yards on 62% completions with 23 touchdowns, and 6 picks over his last two seasons. Despite these impressive stats, I see the offense struggling against a very fast and disciplined Hilltopper defensive unit. In order to contain a duel threat QB it is imperative for the defense to maintain their individual gap areas and not over react to Cunningham’s ball fakes – and the unit will do a great job.

From the machine learning tools and models the Hilltoppers are projected to gain an average of at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt and contain Louisville to fewer than 28 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10 points. In 2018, they had Louisville on the ropes leading 14-6 starting the fourth quarter, before Louisville scored 14 points in the fourth to win 20-17. WKU was a 21 point underdog and they did exceed the performance measures mentioned above.

The NFL season starts this Thursday with the defending Super Bowl 54 Champion Chiefs hosting the AFC South Divisional Champion Houston Texans. This is also a rematch of last year’s Chiefs 51-31 win over the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In that game the Chiefs were installed as 10-point home favorites and the game total line was 51 points. In Week 1, the Chiefs are favored by an identical 10-point betting line and the total has creeped up to 55 points.

No all defending Super Bowl Champions have started the following season with a home game. There have been 16 SB Champions, who have started the season with a home celebration and are 14-2 straight-up (SU), 11-4-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and near-even 7-8-1 ‘OVER’ record. Since 2002, this is the first time that a reigning Champion has been installed as a double-digit favorite. Reigning Champions installed as favorites are 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS, and 8-6 ‘UNDER’ in Week 1 and when favored by four or more points sport an impressive 9-1 SU record, 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets, and 6-4 tilt to the ‘UNDER’. So, no hangover whatsoever for the home fed reigning Champions.

The news remains positive for the reigning champions as they sport a 12-2 SU record, 9-4-1 ATS, and 7-6-1’ UNDER’ record when facing a playoff team from last season in Week 1. Opponents in Week 1 that were a previous season playoff team and facing a reigning Champion that is not in their division are a money-burning 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS for 27% winning bets, and an 8-7-1 ‘OVER’ record in Week 1.

This offense is unstoppable when Reid’s play calling is clicking with this offensive sets. The Chiefs ranked 5th averaging 28.2 points-per-game with 30 receiving touchdowns, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 1 kickoff return for touchdown. They led the NFL making 34 field goal attempts on 38 tries and reflects the Chiefs struggles at times in the red zone. In their games, the Chiefs just knew that putting points on the scoreboard despite failed red zone conversions, was the recipe to win games. The Chiefs will average more points-per-game this season just by cutting down their field goal attempts in the red zone to 25.

The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL scoring on 49.4% of all drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive with the Baltimore Ravens ranking first and scoring points on 52% of their drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive. The Chiefs ranked fourth-best in the NFL taking care of the football and had a turnover on only 8% of their drives.

The Chiefs offense is designed to maximize yards-after-the-catch (YAC) much ion the way the San Francisco 49ers West Coast offense was designed and the same West Coast scheme Reid ran while the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. The number one Texans defensive weakness was ranking 30th in the NFL allowing 2,067 YAC.

So, double digit favorites that have averaged at least 11 yards-per-completion spanning their last eight games and facing an opponent, who made the playoffs last season and allowed at least 375 points in their previous season are a solid 72-54-2 ATS for 57% winning bets and 116-12 SU for 90% wins and winning these games by an average of 15.1 points-per-game. Last, if this game takes place on a Thursday night, the double-digit favorites are 6-0 SU winning by an average of 16.5 points and 5-0-1 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 7.77 points.

There are more than 200 separate parameters in my NFL database and many of my machine learning tools combine many of these parameters that work well together in identifying ATS winners. These types of advanced mathematical applications are applied in the same way in many other industries, for instance, the Life Sciences and Biotech sectors. The combinatorial algorithms, for instance, will look to combine a combination of parameters (column names) that serve to optimize total return-on-investment (ROI) exactly in the same manner that I use them in stock market projections.

For this matchup, the Chiefs are projected to average at least 3.1 points-per-drive in this game against the Texans. The Chiefs are 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have met or exceeded a 3.1 points-per-drive ratio in games played over the last three seasons. Further, when installed as a home favorite and averaging  a minimum of 3.1 points-per-drive ratio they are a resounding 9-1 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 8-2 ATS for 80% and covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points.

Moreover, the Chiefs are projected to score 27 or more points and outgain the Texans by at least 80 yards. In past games where the Chiefs have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 64-3 SU record winning the games by an average of 19.6 points and a 61-4-2 ATS record good for 94% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points.

By knowing these projections, you will find yourself watching the game and monitoring their progress. I also provide situational trends at the end of each quarter that can also serve to provide even more money-making betting opportunities that have proven track records.

8:00 PM EST, September 5, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Memphis Tigers

Let us start with a solid betting system that has earned a 37-10 against-the-spread ATS record for 79% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The system, which I commonly call a situational database query, instructs us to play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that was an outstanding offense averaging 6.4 or more yards-per-play last season and has their starting quarterback from last season returning this season.

I wrote about the immense value of returning starters on offense, especially when four or five of the previous season’s starting offensive line returns for this season. Memphis has this in place to start their season and it will pay them handsome dividends over the first four weeks of the season.

From the machine learning tools, Memphis is projected to average at least 9.0 yards-per-pass-play and out-gain Arkansas State by at least 200 yards. In past games in which Memphis met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to earn a 13-1 ATS record for 93% winning bets that has also covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points.

SMU Mustangs vs Texas State

September 5, 2020, 4:30 PM EST
7-Star Titan Best on the Texas State

From the machine learning tools and projections Texas State is projected to pass for 75 fewer yards than SMU will pass for and that SMU will NOT exceed 31 or more points. In past Texas State games where this pair of measures were met or exceeded they are 19-10 ATS for 66% winning bets; 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when installed as a double digit dog.

If you do like teasers, consider a 6-point teaser adding 6-points to the current total  and adding 6-points to the current line. This makes the total about 72.5/73 points playing ‘UNDER’ and the T-State a 29/30-poit underdog.

SMU has not done well in games expected to be high scoring and are 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons.

The South Alabama Jaguars, who are members in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference will travel to take on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, who are members of the West Division of the 14-team Conference-USA. The Eagles find themselves installed as double-digit home favorites against the Jaguars, who won just two games last season.

The 2019 season saw the Jaguars go a horrid 2-10, but they did earn respectable 7-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record. Head Coach Steve Campbell is just 5-19 straight up and 13-11 ATS in his first two seasons but has a 13 returning starters with seven on offense including quarterback Desmond Trotter and six on defense. The defense is returning the top-5 tacklers and gives reason for the defensive unit to be significantly better in 2020.

The Jaguars ranked fifth in the Sun Belt Conference allowing an averaging of 409 offensive yards-per-game, sixth allowing 192 rushing yards-per-game, and fourth allowing 217 passing yards-per-game. Having the best defensive players returning that accounted for 65% of last season’s production is key as are the seven starters returning on offense that accounted for 73% of last season’s total production.

I key handicapping method is to track the percentage of wagers being made and the total amounts of money those betting tickets add up to. In this game 78% of all bets being made are on the Eagles resulting in 22% of bets in support of the Jaguars. The line for this game opened with the Eagles favored by 14 points and despite having a 3:1 margin in bets made on them, the line has dropped to 13.5 points. The half-point decline in the line is a mall amount, but it is far more meaningful when the overwhelming number of bets are on the dog. This implies that the large bettors, so-called Wise Guys, are on the Jaguars and their combined money of their bets is offsetting the small public bets.

As the season rolls on you will notices that there is a pivot point in scoring that when exceeded favors that team and works against their opponent. Such is the case in this matchup as the Eagles are 171-28-1 straight-up (SU) for 86% wins and 131-41-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets when they score 28 or more points in games played since 1980; 49-16 SU for 75% wins and 45-19-1 ATS for 70.3% winning bets since 2010; 16-2 SU for 89% wins and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The Jaguars are a money-burning 8-54 SU for 13% wins and 21-39-2 ATS for 35% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points since 2011; 3-23 SU for 12% wins and 10-15 ATS for 40% winning bets over the last three seasons.

There is more though, then just using 28 points as a pivot to determine a betting opportunity. The machine learning summary shows that the Jaguars are just 1-7 SU for 13% wins, but 7-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring at least 24 points and are installed as a double-digit road underdog. The Eagles are 9-9 SU for 50% wins and 4-14 ATS for just 22% winning bets installed as a double-digit home favorite and allowing that opponent to score at least 24 points.

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 2, 2020

NFL 10-Star Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers
7-Star 'UNDER'
49ers win by 13,14,15 points 16:1 at 5 Dimes

I will not  waste your time with superfluous narrative. The 49ers will win by 13 or more points and this is based first on the machine learning projections and then my own fundamental research and indepth matchup analyses. On paper the 49ers are the best team on both sides of the ball. I hear a few of you moaning and wish you could debate this with over a few craft beers. 

The Chiefs linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson are not getting it done this season. I never intend or would want to put down any athlete at any level of the game played, but they are one of the worst duos in the NFL this season by many measures. Wilson is a former Cowboy, who has been torched this season as a Chief and allowed a 115 passer rating, which was the eighth worst mark in the NFL for linebackers with at least 200 snaps play this season. 

Hitchens got a big contract via free-agency by the Chiefs, but he steadily became a target by opponents whenever possible. He si very vulnerable and exposed in this game whenever he will lineup on the perimeter to cover aany of the 49ers running backs in man coverage. 

When the Chiefs bring in their third linebacker in Reggie Ragland it is almost always to help stop the run. However, teams have used play action pass so that the trio of Chief linebaqckers do not get the depth  necessary to cover the the middle of the field. This will be something to watch in the game for sure and expect Dee Dee Samuel to be targeted in these prime situations for the 48ers. 

George Kittle will be a nightmare in any coverage situation the Chiefs decide to use. The main reason is that the Chiefs lost their starting safety Juan Thornhill, who tore his left ACL in the final game of the regular season. His absence is going to make it even tougher for the Chiefs to adjust to what the 49ers bring to the huddle and pre-snap. The Chiefs faced the 21 personnel on 102 snaps and used five and six defensive backs in 48 of those snaps. The 49ers opponents used four defensive backs on 77% of the 21 personnel plays run by the 49ers and many of those defenses simply stayed in their base defense,. 

The bottom line is that this will put Kittle in optimal high-percentage man-coverage situations. This is one of the reasons I like the risk of taking Kittle as the MVP of this Super Bowl even though there has never been a tight end that has won the MVP – not even Gronk. 

The 49ers have run the most basic of plays and the ones I still remember repeating 50-timres in High Svhool practices. The basic trap play was used on third-and-long situations (less than eight yards) and ran to perfection. Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should have recognized this since he ran these exact elementary plays to several State Championships at Central Bucks West High School, a Philadelphia suburb. 

The 49ers do a great job in getting offensive leverage on a defense by moving either Kittle or FB Kyle Juszczvk in motion or moving one of them and then the other seconds prior to the snap. This allows Jimmy G to see where the weakness will be in the defense and is similar to what the Patriots have used with their tight ends for two decades. 

The Mesh offensive scheme has been around for about the last 10 seasons in both College and NFL playbooks and I expect to see the 49ers use to exploit the middle of the field and put even more pressure on the Chiefs linebackers. The all curl scheme looks to exploit a defender in a 2-on-1 advantage whereas the mesh scheme focuses on the middle of the field and two shallow crossing routes that generally have a 3-on-2 advantage for the offense. The scheme also includes a vertical route with a WR in a favorable matchup or for the running back, who will be covered by a slower linebacker. Jimmy G will assign the big play route prior to the snap after seeing the defensive alignment. This is where I believe the 49ers will have big play opportunities or a result that keeps the chains moving checking down to the crossing routes.   

The 49ers have the best front four in the game with all four linemen capable of sacking the quarterback. They recorded 57 sacks with Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner all having at least 7.5 sacks this season. Teams in the Super Bowl, who recorded 55 or more sacks in the regular season and the playoffs are 6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl and the ‘UNDER’ is 5-2. 

Prop Bets

Koepka Birdies vs Kittle Receptions

A fun prop bet is for Kittle to have more receptions than PGA Tour Golfer Brooks Koepka has birdies. The Phoenix Open is taking place with the Fenway-like Stadium surrounding the par-3 17th hole. The course is going to play tougher than in previous years and it will be more difficult to go low. The key point is birdies, which does not include Eagles, Double Eagles, or Holes-in-one. There are a few Eagle holes on the course so that would then make it even harder to make six or more birdies.

St. Johns Points vs Kittle Reception Yards

Another one I like here is I think Kittle will go over 100 receiving yards in a losing or winning cause and we are getting paid well to assume this risk with Kittle +3.5 underdog and +105 juice.

Travis Kelce and his MVP Bid

There are 20 prop bets on Travis Kelce at the 5Dimes sportsbook. If you like the Chiefs then Kelce will be a big part of the game plan against an extremely strong and lightning-fast 49ers defensive unit. If the 49ers are successful at containment on Chiefs quarterback Mahomes, then Kelce will be the relief valve receiver and has the potential for a huge game.

I do not normally like laying -170 wood on any prop bet but in this game, the odds are high that Kelce will exceed the 5.5 receptions line. Betting ‘OVER’ 76.5 receiving yards paying only -105 juice is a no-brainer and is better risk-reward than the ‘OVER’ 5.5 receptions. It would be hard to imagine a game in which Kelce had more than 77 receiving yards and five or fewer catches.

I like Kelce to score a TD in the first half and receiving +280 NFL Super Bowl odds in return.

Then the fun props taking Kelce at -2.5 and -145 juice to have more receiving yards than Duston Johnson’s score in the final round at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

The MVP Bets

George Kittle is ranked as the 4th most-likely MVP recipient at +900 at 5Dimes. Travis Kelce is ranked 9th most-likely MVP recipient at +1900. The last MVP bet I will make is on 49ers rookie defensive lineman Nick Bosa, who is 7th most-likely to win the MVP at +1850.

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

3:05 PM ESTPM EST, January 19, 2020
NFL: 7-Star Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are in a classic Catch-22 situation. Should they choose to attempt to contain Henry they will expose themselves to the passing arm of Ryan Tannehill, who was atop the NFL with a 135 quarterback Passer Rating Index and net yards-power-pass-attempt. It has been a long time since a quarterback led the league in both categories since throwing down field will logically cause more incomplete passes and potential interceptions.

Tannehill has not had to win games with his arm so far in the playoffs, which gives little scouting intelligence for the Chiefs to prepare for in this game. The Chiefs know that play action pass will be part of the TItans offensive scheme since they led the NFL with a total of 1,568 passing yards using play action.

The Chiefs will be at their most vulnerable in second and shorter than five yards. If the Titans use play action and the Chiefs are playing run stop it will leave every receiver on the field in man coverage with no safety help. Tannehill has been incredibly accurate with throws of any length and he will exploit any man-coverage situation downfield.

If the Chiefs show blitz and back out and the Titans are running the ball behind Henry the result will be a first down. Henry is gaining chunk yards meaning big gains that are rarely seen from run plays and more common from pass receptions and yards after the catch.

Tannehill and the Titan receivers led the NFL in average yards gained using play action by a wide margin. They used play action 124 times, which ranked 15th most in the NFL, but gained the most passing yards.

This situational betting system has earned a solid 79-44-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record spanning the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that has a defense that allows an average of between 335 and 370 yards-per-game on the season and is facing an elite team that is gaining an average of 370 yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is high probability that the Titans gain 100 or more rushing yards and teams in past Championship games that have attained this measure are a stout 24-13 SU and 24-13 ATS since 2000 including road warriors sporting a 7-8 SU record and an eye-popping 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning NFL picks.

The Defense Wins Championship adage has not been present at the College Football Playoff era and it is unlikely to show up tonight. Clemson has the expereince of the bright lights playing in the National Championship game for the four time in the past five years. The LSU Tigers, or Bayou Bengals, are battle-tested and will not wilt under the heat of the bright lights. Head coach Orgeron has his players respect and trust to the fullest and has Heisman winner Joe Burrows under center, who passed for 5,208 passing yards including 55 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

Clemson’s secondary was the best in the nation, but they have not faced the likes of what LSU brings to this game. LSU scored the most points with 684 or 48.9 points-per-game of the 130 D-1 programs in the nation and they did it in the SEC, which is the toughest conference in the country. Their defense did not suffer because of the offensive scoring machine. They ranked 29th ins coring defense allowing 303 total points or 21.6 points-per-game.

Burrows ranked best in the nation completing an insane 77.6% of his  pass attempts, touchdowns with 55, and overall passing efficiency rating of 204.6 for the season.  By comparison Trevor Lawrence passed for 3,431 yards, completed 67.6% of his pass attempts including 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and a 173.2 quarterback efficiency rating. That is an excellent season, but is nowhere close to the level that Burrows has played at consistently for the entire season.

The Bengals have two extraordinarily gited wide receivers in Fred Biletnikoff award winner JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson, who both caught 19 touchdown passes this season. Jefferson would have been a deserving winner of the award for best wide receiver in the country.

Let us get to some team trends from the trusted database. This situational betting system has earned a 43-16-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on a team that has won at least 75% of their games in the current season and are facing an opponent that has won at least 80% of their game sin the current seasons and have beaten the spread by at least 49 points spanning their last five games. This record zooms to 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets when out team has won 85% or more their games and to 13-3-2 ATS for 81.2% when they have not lost a game on the season.

This betting system has posted a 21-10-1 ‘OVER’ record when our team has won 85% or more of their game son the season.

From the predictive side, the Bengals are 41-2 SU, 28-13-2 ATS for 68% and the ‘Over’ has won the money with a 32-9-2 record when they have scored 35 or more points and passed for at least 9.5 yards-per-pass-attempt. They are 9-2 ATS when scoring 28 or more points this season.

So, play a 10-Star amount on the LSU Tigers (Bayou Bengals) on the line and a 7-Star amount on the ‘OVER’. No need to play the parlay, but if you cannot resist, play no more than a 3-Star amount on the parlay.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
8:15 PM EST
NFL Betting Odds: Ravens -10 (-110)

The line for this Divisional Playoff game opened with the Baltimore Ravens as a 10-point favorite and there has been a steady flow of bets on the Tennessee Titans that have pushed the line lower to 9.5 points across the marketplace as shown on the SBR NFL odds board. The Heritage Sportsbook has already moved the line to 9-points with only -105 juice.

When ever the public sentiment is squarely on one team in the NFL it will result in the that team failing to cover the spread far more often than cover it. It is even worse for them when the ‘Joes’ are backing an underdog. The Titans win over the Patriots was terrific for the team and franchise, but this will make the third week in a row they have had to travel and now they face the best team in the NFL, who had the week off resting.

I get it that the Titans are the darlings of the NFL having knocked off Darth Vader and the Evile Empire and that Derrick Henry looks like a run away unstoppable freight train. I will predict with a high degree of certainty that he will not rush for over 100 yards in this game.

The most surprising situation in the Titans win last week was that the Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick did not anticipate the Titans commitment to the run game. The adjustments that the defense did make failed to contain their ground attack.

To stop any power running back like Henry there is one simple truth. A defense must get penetration and pressure into the backfield to prevent Henry from accelerating through the A or B gaps. The Titans were not doing anything fancy or tricky and they executed the most basic fundamental set of riun plays to perfection. However, the Ravens defense does have the players to pressure the gaps and not allow Henry to get a head of steam before getting to the second level of defenders. It sounds odd, but the Ravens defense will force the Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is top-ranked in quarterback efficiency this season, to defeat them with his arm.

This situational betting system has been around for along time and it has earned an outstanding 18-6 against-the-spread (ATS) record. The system requires us to bet against a road underdog of 4 to 11 points and is coming two consecutive road wins including a 17-5 ATS mark when the road warrior has a winning record.

·        The Ravens are 7-0 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 61% or higher pass completions in the second half of this season.

Harbaugh is 25-12 ATS following a game in which his team had 150 or fewer passing yards.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:30 PM EST, January 5, 2020
NFL 7-Star Bet on the Eagles

I can sum this game up with a few words and they are Home Dog and terrific defensive line. The Eagles defensive line has played fantastic football over the last four weeks and I think they are going to play at that level again in this matchup. The Seahawks and Eagles resemble M.A.S.H. units more than an NFL team given their page filling list of names on the injured list. The Seahawks to do not have a running back – at least one that is even 90% healthy or not unretired (love the poor grammar) as Marshawn Lynch is labeled. The Eagles defensive game plan will not include putting massive heat on Wilson, but rather massive containment and forcing to make throws instead of using his legs to extend plays.

Even the massive mismatches of the Seahawk wide recievers against the Eagles secondary will be minimized if the defensive line and stop the run and contain Wilson.

From the predictive side fo this game the Eagles will out gain the Seahawks by at least 80 yards in total offense and will have fewer turnovers. When the Eagles have attained this in previous home games they have gone on to a jaw-dropping 39-0 straight-up and 38-1 against-the-spread (ATS) and covered the spread by an average of 16 points!

  
Here is a big-time NFL situational betting system that has earned a solid 26-7 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a road team after week 8 of the regular including the playoffs that has a winning record and facing an opponent with a winning record of at least 73% and is coming off a road divisional win.

Some quick Hitters:
Saints are a winless 0-7 ATS in home games off a division game spanning the last three seasons.

Saints are 17-34 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

From the predictive side of things the Vikings are 30-15-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and gain more rushing yards than their opponent including a 22-2 ATS record when scoring at least 22 or more points.

Bet the Minnesota Vikings as a 7-Star Titan Bet

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots
8:15 PM EST
10-Star New England Patriots

The public sentiment is that the Brady-Belichick era is OVER and the gold-plated wheel chair has been ordered for both of them by the Kraft family. Ha Ha. But seriously, how many times over the past 20 seasons have we herd the demise and that this is the year the Patriots are not the Patriots. Granted, this will be the biggest test of coaching genius for Belichick, but he has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. 

I have drawn upon the connection to and the similarity of being bullish on a stock to being bullish on a sports team. A stock like Apple that has been in a bullish uptrend for several months and reached all-time highs in today’s price action will have pullbacks and corrections of the major gains made this year. These price declines do not indicate that the positive trend in prices has ended, but that price levels had become too expensive and reflected too much positive optimism for the future earnings of the company. 

The New England Patriots are the sports team version of Apple. There have been many times over the years where negative news caused a severe price correction in Apple stock. Those price declines proved to be awesome buying opportunities in the face of highly negative sentiment. This is exactly where the Patriots are right now. 

In the NFL when a double-digit underdog pulls off the upset it is always shocking news to most. However, the Dolphins had gone 5-4 in their last nine games and won their last two of three games. So, it was not the same Dolphins that were shutout in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Vegas did not tell us that the Patriots would win by the point spread of 17-points last week. What the line does tell us is where the lines makers believe there will be equal action on both sides of the ledger. Sol the 17-point NFL betting line seen on the NFL odds boards reflected human betting behavior and the lines maker anticipating a ton of bets being placed on the Patriots if they released a line that was in the 14.5-point area. 

So, now the betting public has shifted gears and thrown the baby out with the bath water – no, I am not calling Tommy a baby – and the line now is cheaply priced and offers us an after Christmas deal of the year to get on the Patriots. 

Take the Focus off 42-year-old Tom Brady
Head Coach Belichick has done one thing well in every game he has prepared for in his Hall-of-Fame-like career. That one task is to create a defensive scheme that takes away the opponent’s most significant strength. Last week’s loss was an exception that he did not see coming or one that was identified, and the execution of the scheme was poor. Whatever the case, I strongly belevie that Belichick will have the scheme that will make it extraordinarily difficult for a Ryan Tannehill-led offense to move the chains and score touchdowns in the red zone. 

Let us face facts that Brady has had one of the weakest wide receiver corps of his career. In 2018 receivers dropped 25 balls for a 4.;6% drop rate and in 2019 receivers dropped 34 balls for a 5.9% drop rate. He leads the league with 40 throw-away balls as compared to just 22 last season. 

The media says that it is a combination of the offensive line, wide receivers, and a diminished skill set of a 42-year old quarterback. Well, then I ask of these brilliant minds why has the offensive line given Brady an average of 2.5 seconds of pocket time as compared to 2.4 seconds in 2018. A tenth of a second is an hour for an NFL quarterback and often the difference between a sack and a completed pass play. 

At the end of this game the Patriots will have won because of their defense. 

·       The Patriots are 20-9 against-the-spread (ATS)  and covered these games by an average of 6.53 points-per-game in games taking place in the second-half of the season and the playoffs when facing a team with a modest win percentage between 51 and 60% since 2001. 

Here is an awesome betting system that does well using the money line and against the spread and has earned a 32-4 SU record for 89% winning bets using the money line over the past 10 seasons. Play on favorites after Week 8 using the money line that are coming a off one or more consecutive ‘over’ games and is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 points-per-game. 

 
 Ket us begin with a situational betting system that has earned a solid and consistent 105-58- 4 against-the-spread record good for 64.4% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on solid rushing teams averaging 4.8 rushing yards-per-attempt and are coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 125 rushing yards and now facing a team that averages between 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards-per-attempt.

This betting system has earned a 20-11 STS record good for 64.5% winning bets in the 2019 season.

BC is 42-25 ATS when facing an opponent with a 75% or higher win percentage since 2000 including 16-2 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 12 points-per-game when scoring 28 or more points.

Baylor vs Georgia
Sugar Bowl., Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New Orleans, LA
8:45 PM EST

The bet is Georgia as a 7-Star Titan bet and the ‘UNDER’ for a 7-Star Bet. The optional plays for consideration are to bet a no more than a 3-Star amount using the reverse parlay strategy that pays 4:1. If you want the detailed info on how a reverse parlay works please contact me on Twitter at @johnRyanSports1. The other alternative is to bet a 7-Star amount on the 7-point teaser lines that would make Georgia a 3-point underdog and raise the total to 48 points – but both sides must win for the teaser bet to win.

The Georgia Bulldogs are a solid 33-17 against-the-spread (ATS) in road games when facing good rushing teams that are averaging at least 4.75 rushing yards-per-attempt; 11-2 ATS in road games after a game where they forced one or zero turnovers in games played spanning the last three seasons.

Georgia head coach Rhule is 10-1 ‘UNDER’ when facing stromg ball control teams that are averaging at least 32 minutes-per-game in all games he has coached.

 
The Auburn Tigers had a great season under the leadership of highly critiqued head coach Gus Malzahn. Perhaps their signature win over state-rival Alabama will stop the unnecessary criticism of Malzahn moving forward, which would be nice to see for the program. The Tigers lost three games and all against top seven teams in the final coaches’ poll by a combined total of 21 points. They finished the regular season with a 48-45 victory over No. 9 Alabama in the Iron Bowl to reach nine wins, which was two more than they had earned in 2018.

Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix made incredible progress and learned the playbook quickly in his first season. His season stats are not that impressive, but he steadily improved each week. He did not throw an interception over his last four games and only one in the last six games since throwing three interceptions against Florida. The Tigers are a young team and will only be better next season. Sophomore wide receiver Seth Williams is the top target for Nix with 55 catches for 801 yards and eight touchdowns while sophomore JaTarvious Whitlow (739 yards, nine touchdowns) and freshman D.J. Williams (387, two) , who also leads the ground attack.

From the predictive side of things, the Tigers have a high probability of scoring 28 or more points in this matchup. The Tigers are 48-22-3 Against the spread (ATS) when they have scored 28 or more points since 2010; 10-2 ATS last two season; 8-3 ATS in Bowl Games.

The Gophers are just 21-35-2 ATS when allowing an opponent to score 28 or more points since 2010; 3-6-1 ATS the last two seasons; 2-5 ATS in Bowl Games.

Plus, teams playing in bowl games that are favored by seven or more points and are ranked 10 or worse and facing an opponent that is ranked lower (greater than 10) are 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets.

10-Star Wager on the Kansas State Wildcats

The line for this game opened with the Kansas State Wildcats as a 2-point favorite on December 8. The ‘Pros and Joes’ immediately jumped on Navy and their bets pushed the line to ‘pick’ within the first 24 hours. Within the next day the line was moved another 2-points to its’ current price tag of Navy favored by 2.5 points on the NCAA Football odds board.

Every Bowl season there are few lines that are just not good ones that are put out by the lines makers and this was on eof them this year. The failure was incorrectly anticipating the public consensus for both teams. The betting public does not place bets on the armed forces teams when facing a Major

The books will lose money on this game. The smart money that got Navy as a 2-point dog are now buying back their bets getting the Wildcats as 2.5-point underdogs and giving them a juicy 4.5-point window to win both of their bets. The second problem for the books is that the betting consensus has now shifted in favor of the Wildcats with 53% of the bets on them and 47% on the Midshipmen. So, the books are holding most betting tickets being Navy between a 2-point dog and ‘pick’ and the Wildcats between ‘pick and 2.5 points underdogs.

The Wildcats have the edge over Navy with true freshman Joshua Youngblood, who earned Big-12 Special Teams Player of the Year and has had three returns for touchdowns in his last four games. There is a great chance he will do it again in this game so if you can fid a prop bet that he returns a kick for a touchdown bet on it.

The Wildcats defense is another game breaker as the rank best in the country in third down situations allowing opponent to convert just 25% of the third downs. The unit will look to keep Navy in third and long situations to put even more pressure on Perry to keep the chains moving.

·        The Wildcats head coach Klieman is 6-0 against-the-spread (ATS) after playing a home game.

·        The Midshipmen’s head coach Niumatalolo is 4-13 ATS after outgaining the previous opponent by 225 or more yards.

This money line system has earned a remarkable 77% winning record of 37-11 and has made the $1,000 bettor a huge $31,250 profit over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet against all teams after Week 7 with a money line of +135 to -155 (NAVY in this matchup) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing-yards-per-game and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 rushing yards-per-game, and after outrushing opponent by at least 125 or more yards I their previous game.

Illinois vs California
4:00 PM EST, December 30, 2019
7-Star bet on Illinois

This situational betting system has earned a solid 35-30 using the Money Line good for 50% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a robust profit of $4,120 over the last 10 seasons. The system requires us to bet on neutral field underdogs that are facing an opponent that has won two out of their last three games in a non-conference matchup. The betting system improves to  18-12 and making $3,380 for the $100 bettor when both teams are from the Power-5 Conferences.

From the predictive side of things, California is a momey-losing 9-24 straight-up (SU) and losing $3,000 per $100 bet when they have been held to between 300 and 350 total yards; 1-6 SU when they gained between 150 and 200 net passing yards  in game splayed over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia vs NY Giants
4:25 PM EST
7-Star bet on the NY Giants

Wentz is coming off a monster game against the Cowboys where he did put the team on his back and carried to the victory. He threw for 319 passing yards and completed an outstanding 31 of his 40 pass attempts for an insane 77.5% complete percentage. He earned the second-highest average passing yards-per-attempt on the season at 8.48 and only the 9.56 he earned in Week1 against Washington was higher.

In a season in which he had few reliable receivers he completed 64.4% of his pass attempts for 3,750 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

The biggest problems that Wentz and the Eagles offense faced each week was the inability to establish a significant ground attack that then would open up the play-action pass plays where Wentz would have extra time to survey the field knowing he had man-coverages. The Eagles rank 15th gaining 902 passing yards on play-action routes this season.

The Eagles running back Jordan Howard will be back in action to provide much-needed running yards. However, the Eagles took a big blow last week when Zack Ertz suffered a fractured rib. He did not practice Christmas Day and he is going to be a possible game-time decision. Anyone, who has had bruised ribs knows how painful it is to even take a breath so, I believe he will not be in action for this game.

Ertz leads the team with 135 targets, 88 receptions, and 916 receiving yards and then there is a huge drop-off to the second-best statistical receiver. So, without Ertz, Wentz now has no trusted receiver in the lineup. The Giants defense will be able to bring the safeties up to the box and attack the ground game and look to put pressure on Wentz to force throws.

This betting system is simple to use and understand. It has earned a 23-3-1 ATS record good for 89% winning bets since 1989. Play on any losing record team after Week 8 and is playing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season.

This betting system has earned an incredible 10-1 ATS record that has covered the spread by 10.7 points-per-game since 2010.

Dallas vs Washington
4:25 PM EST, December 29, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the Dallas Cowboys
 
This situational betting system has earned a 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on home favorites after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season and with the game taking place in the second half of the season.

Dallas suffered its fourth loss in their last five games with another brainless performance in a 17-9 setback at Philadelphia last weekend to fall a game behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Even during their hapless stretch in the second-half of the season they remained in control of their playoff destiny due to the fact they play in the NFC Least Division. Now they need to win this game and get help from the Giants to upset the Eagles – which just might happen.

Not that he will be thinking about this, but Prescott needs 305 passing yards to surpass the single-season record held by Tony Romo, who had 4,903 passing yards. Facing the Redskins defense he just might due to as long as his ailing shoulder holds up in this game. So, look for him to get the ball out fast on quick-hitters and using the slant routes many times.

From the predictive side of things, the Cowboys are 15-5-1 ATS and have covered the spread by an average of eight points when they have scored more than 28 points as a home favorite of at least 7.5 points and had fewer turnovers than the opponent.  

NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM EST, December 29, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the NY Jets
 
This situational betting system has earned a 46-23 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on road teams in the month of December after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games.

The Jets have won five of their last seven games but a poor start to the season was too much to overcome and sealed a ninth straight season. The league's seventh-ranked defense allowing 324.1 yards allowed per game helped the Jets to a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh last week to hurt the Steelers' playoff chances. So, the Jets have been playing to win over the second-half of the season and will do the same today.

Despite the Bills starters seeing the majority of snaps I believe that the Jets will win this game. The Bills know they are either playing at Kansas City or at Houston next week and it will be very difficult for them to to focus on today’s game sine it is truly meaningless.