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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-18-10	Connecticut v. Temple +6	Top	16-30	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Temple as they take on UCONN set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. if you like the upset bid consider splitting the bet into two parts with a 10* amount getting the points and a 5* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since becoming the head coach of Temple, Golden is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a home underdog. Here is a money line system that has gone 38-5 for 88.4% winners making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning in games played during the first month of the season. Temple is a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Owls.
09-18-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. Illinois	Top	22-28	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show
15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Illinois set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Northern Illinois will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Consider an alternative wager splitting the 15* amount into two parts with a 11* getting the points and a 4* on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-7 ATS for 83.3% winners since 2000. Play against a home team that is a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning. Here is a second system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with two or more straight losses and had a winning record last season. Illinois is coming off an easy 35-3 win over Southern Illinois and led by points 18 points at the half 21-3. Illinois is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
09-17-10	California v. Nevada +3	Top	31-52	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play on Nevada as they host California set to start at 10 EST and will televised on ESPN2 and can viewed on the interest at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a Money Line System that has produced a record of 38-5 making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is a second system that has gone 24-3 making 89% winners since 2005. Play on a home team versus the money line after out gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game and with 9 or more offensive starters returning in the first month of the season. I also see Nevada gaining more than 200 yards in this game. California is just 4-15 against the money line (-15.7 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take Nevada.
09-16-10	Cincinnati +2 v. North Carolina State	Top	19-30	Loss	-105	23 h 58 m	Show
25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on NC State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. It will also be viewable on the internet at ESPN's espn3 site. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game. Cincinnati has been somewhat inconsistent on offense so far this season. yet, last week they ran the bak very well against Indiana State. Indiana State is not of the caliber of NC State, but it game the offensive line the game reps it needed to really work into the game. There has been talk of the new faces on offense an a necessary adjustment period until they get up to full speed. They do, however, have three returning linemen, both running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. Junior quarter Zach Collaras will pick apart the NC State cover-2. I feel strongly that NC State will have to bring pressure and when they do Cincinnati will have excellent passing opportunities in man or
09-13-10	San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs +5.5	Top	14-21	Win	100	10 h 41 m	Show
10* graded play on Kansas City as they host San Diego on Monday Night Football set to start at 10:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by fewer than four points. If you like the idea of an upset, then consider placing a 3* amount on the money line above and beyond the 10* amount getting the points. The biggest advantage KC has in this game is the ability to run the ball. The model shows a high probability that KC will get between 125 and 150 rushing yards. SD is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. SD is playing without two of their better players in holdouts Marcus McNiel and wide receiver Vincent Jackson. KC will be able to get pressure Rivers and disrupt the flow of the offense. This will occur because of their new LB Demorrio Williams, who had a strong exhibition season. Combined with Tamba Hali the defense will be able to apply pressure consistently and will be a dominant reason KC will win this game. KC will win the special teams and KR/PR Javier Arenas is able to make long returns and give his offense strong field position. Even at age 32, WR Chambers can stretch the field. With a pounding running game, QB Matt Cassel, will be able to use play action pass to get Chambers matched up in man coverage and the post route will be successful over the middle of the field. i feel strongly that SD will have to bring a safety to the box to respect and contain the KC running game and this will leave a gaping hole in the deep middle of the SD defense. Take the Chiefs.
09-12-10	Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Washington Redskins	Top	7-13	Loss	-120	9 h 22 m	Show
15* graded play on Dallas as they take on Washington set to start at 8:20 and will be televised on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY Line system that has produced a record of 50-7 for 88% winners since 1983. Play on favorites versus the money line and is a solid team from last season winning between 60% to 75% of their games playing a terrible team from last year winning <=25% of their games. The Cowboys offense has four play makers that all have different specialties. Miles Austin can beat any of the Redskins corners in post and fly patterns, especially in play action. Roy Williams is tough as nails when going over the middle and Jason Witten is arguably the best tight end in the business. He can block, catch ball control passes in the flat, and runs excellent squared off out and in patterns. Whitten is vastly under rated in his ability to exploit the middle of the field in the cover-2 scheme. Dez Bryant can simply do it all and Marion Barber is a big time power running back that can also catch ball control passes out of the back field. The model also shows that Dallas will have a balanced offensive attack and will thrown for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Dallas is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Take Dallas BIG!
09-12-10	Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills +3	Top	15-10	Loss	-100	2 h 19 m	Show
15* graded play on Buffalo as they host Miami set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a solid opportunity to win the game. Buffalo has the ability to run the ball with strong success, which will allow Trent Jones the opportunity to use play action pass to target deep vertical routes to Lee Evans. The 7-year veteran out of Wisconsin has the ability to stretch the defense and will be in man coverage if the Miami defense brings safeties to stop the run. He has tremendous quickness at the line of scrimmage and no cornerback can play bump and run with consistent success. Look for to have a huge day as a benefactor of a strong running game. The Miami offensive line was not performing well in the preseason and interior of that offensive line has the biggest issues to correct. This will disrupt the flow of the running game and will allow Buffalo to bring zone blitzes in favorable situations. If you like upset play split the 15* amount into a 10* with the points and a 5* on the money line. Take Buffalo
09-11-10	Texas Tech Red Raiders v. New Mexico Lobos +24.5		52-17	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
7* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Texas Tech set to start at 8 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. New Mexico is coming off a horrid 72-0 loss to Oregon. However, they are is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. The Oregon slipped away early from New Mexico and it fast became a game where nothing went right. However, you can be confident that New Mexico will defend their home turf with passion and desire. We played on SMU in Texas Tech
09-11-10	Oregon Ducks v. Tennessee Volunteers +12.5		48-13	Loss	-110	11 h 4 m	Show
7* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Oregon set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. Tennessee has a huge advantage in being able to run the ball and run the ball they will. The model projects that they will have a minimum of 150 rushing yards in this game. Note that Oregon is just 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992. The ability to run the ball will allow the Volunteers to control the clock, keep the Ducks offense off the field, and set up high percentage play action pass plays. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 25-9 for 74% winners and has made 18.8 units since 1992. Play on a home teams versus the money line after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game and returning 5 or less offensive starters facing an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters in the first month of the season. Tennessee is in the midst of a rebuilding year to say the least with just three returning on offense and five returning on defense. Oregon returns eight defensive players and nine offensive, but has a new QB at the helm. Take Tennessee.
09-11-10	Troy +14 v. Oklahoma State		38-41	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
7* graded play on Troy as they take to the road and play at Oklahoma State set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Troy is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 121-148, but has made 78.3 units since 1992. Play against a home team versus the money line after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. The average play for this system has been a +187 dog ad is worth tracking for plays that qualify. Troy played far better than their last minute victory suggests. The Trojans won the total offense battle, 475 to 329, and accumulated 29 first downs. Troy quarterback Corey Robinson completed 25 of 37 passes for 252 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. This type of win though can carry over into the next game even if it is a tough road test like OSU. Take Troy.
09-11-10	Michigan v. Notre Dame -3	Top	28-24	Loss	-115	6 h 12 m	Show
15* graded play on Notre Dame as they host Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by four or more points. Notre Dame has returned nine starters on defense and they will dominate this game. Michigan will have difficulty moving the ball consistently and executing long time consuming scoring drives. This game has the potential to be a blowout with Notre Dame gaining 250 more yards on offense than Michigan. The mode also projects that ND will pass for more than nine yards per attempt. Note that Michigan is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. ND is a solid 29-8 ATS (+20.2 Units) when they out gain their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. The Michigan offensive line is slimmed down from last year and demonstrated last week that they are quick and focus on angle blocking in their game against Connecticut. However, the ND defense and in particular their linebackers have had time to prepare for the Michigan offense hat includes direct snap draw plays to Robinson. ND linebackers are physical enough to shed blockers and minimize angles to neutralize and trap Robinson at the Line of scrimmage. ND will shut this down. Take Notre Dame.
09-11-10	South Florida +16.5 v. Florida	Top	14-38	Loss	-110	18 h 42 m	Show
15* graded play on South Florida as they take on state rival Florida set to start at 12:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that South Florida will lose this game by fewer than 14 points and has an opportunity to pull off the improbable upset. If you like the upset idea then consider playing 12* amount on the line and a 3* amount on the money line. The Tim Tebow era is very hard to forget for Gator fans especially after one of the worst offensive displays last week against Miami of Ohio under head coach Urban Meyer. The Gators committed eight fumbles losing three of them and had gained 25 total yards offense with minus 16 rushing through the first three quarters. The negative rushing yardage was attributed to several extremely poor snaps from new starting center Mike Pouncey, who was moved to center after playing guard last season. He had one snap that was several feet over the head of new quarterback John Brantley. In addition, this offensive unit had just one starter, left guard James Wilson, in the same position he played season. The offense needs to improve quickly and correct all the mistakes from this past week. This is too much to ask when facing a rising intra-state rival in South Florida. If not for four interceptions including a 67 interception return for a touchdown the Florida game would have been far closer than the 34-12 final indicates. South Florida had a strong game last week, but is was against a FCS Stoney Brook team. They did start off slow trailing at one point 14-7, but then cleared the rust and got things rolling. They return 10 starters including their quarterback Daniels and that will certainly serve them well in this game and a Florida defense that has several weaknesses. Holtz is in his first season at South Florida and is a solid 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a dog in all games he has coached since 1992. If you are thinking possible upset and will want some action on the money line then check out this system that has gone just 45-110 for 29% winners, but has made an incredible 127.8 units since 2000. Play on dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The average play has been a DOG of +529 that has won 29% of the games. An amazing system and one that you can trust to make you more money as games qualify. Take South Florida.
09-10-10	West Virginia v. Marshall +13	Top	24-21	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
10* graded play on Marshall as they host West Virginia set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. The
09-09-10	Central Michigan v. Temple -7.5		10-13	Loss	-110	27 h 10 m	Show
15* graded play on Temple as they take on Central Michigan set to start Thursday September 9 at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by more than eight points. Temple is coming off a bowl season and looks to add more to this year
09-06-10	Maryland v. Navy -6.5	Top	17-14	Loss	-110	21 h 21 m	Show
15* graded play on Navy as they take on Maryland set to start at 4 EST Monday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Navy will win this game by seven or more points. Many returns eight including their starting QB from last year and this a significant advantage for them during the first several weeks of the season. Maryland struggled big tie on defense last season allowing 31 PPG and are returning just five defensive starters. I feel strongly that Navy, led by senior QB Ricky Dobbs, will be able to attack this highly suspect defense. Dobbs set a school record with 27 TD
09-05-10	SMU +14.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	27-35	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Texas tech set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. SMU returns eight starters on offense including the QB and that is a significant advantage in this game. The simple fact that they have played extensively together for a least one full season provides a chemistry and cohesiveness that allows for a strong form of play. Their QB Kyle Padron barely has two fully seasons of football experience and only got the opportunity to play due to an injury. He won win five of his six starts, finished fifth in the country in passer rating and set a new school record for passing yards in a single game while picking up MVP honors in the Mustangs' first bowl victory in 25 years. His leadership will be evident in this game and throughout the season. I see this game as potentially an upset winner too so consider splitting the wager between a 11* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 over the past three seasons and has produced a 28-16 winning mark making 27.6 units since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line ion the first 2 weeks of the year after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Take SMU.
09-04-10	Washington State Cougars +17.5 v. Oklahoma State Cowboys	Top	17-65	Loss	-105	5 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Washington State as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. WSU had a very poor 1-11 season in 2009, but this season is going to be far different. They return eight starters including the QB this season and just the fact that they have played together for an extended period of time is a big time advantage in the first several weeks of the season. They will be going against a rebuilding year for OSU, who returns just four starters on offense and four on defense. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-5 ATS for 84% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season that is an terrible offensive team from last season scoring 14 or less points per game and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Take Washington State
09-03-10	Arizona -16.5 v. Toledo	Top	41-2	Win	100	7 h 17 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Toldeo set to start at 8 ET Friday September 3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by more than 17 points. The most significant factor for this game is that Arizona returns eight starters on offense including the QB. That experience of playing together as a unit is invaluable during the first several weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% since 2000. Play against home dogs in non-conference games that are good passing teams from last season that averaged 255 or more passing yards per game. The simulator also shows a high probability that Arizona will gain more than 6.5 yards per play. Toledo is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take Arizona.
09-02-10	Pittsburgh Panthers v. Utah Utes -3	Top	24-27	Push	0	9 h 41 m	Show
15* graded play on Utah as they take on 15th ranked Pittsburgh set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised on VERSUS. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game by more than three points. Utah returns eight offensive starters including the QB, which is a huge advantage for any team in the first several weeks of the season. It is the fact that the OL and QB have significant playing experience and that cohesiveness is a dominant force on the playing field. On the other side of the line of scrimmage is an offense that has a red shirt starting QB and just five returning starters. I fully expect this unit to struggle against the Utah defense. Utah can run multiple looks and likes to bring pressure from several different angles and launch points. Although Pittsburgh has shown creativity offensively it will be difficult to execute with an inexperienced QB at the helm. Considering these fundamental assessments and the model projections that Pitt will not gain more than 200 net passing yards places Utah into a solid game situation. They are 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-4 ATS on the MONEY LINE for 89% winners since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line that is a good team from last season and outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year
02-07-10	New Orleans Saints +6 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	31-17	Win	100	116 h 33 m	Show
25* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV to take place at Sun Life Stadium in Miami with the kick-off at 6:25 EST. Our proprietary model clearly shows that the Saints will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. We also believe that the line will move to 6 and possibly 6.5 as the weekend approaches. if you get the opportunity for 6.5 nail it as come Saturday the line will be prone to moving by toward 6 or 5.5 once again. The news about Dwight Freeney has had no bearing on the line and more importantly has not effect on our research. The Saints running game is going to be the difference in this game. The following system clearly outlines this and the subsequent analysis will confirm it. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 against the MONEY LINE for 80% winners since 1983. Play on any team versus the money line that is a good rushing team averaging between 125 to 150 yards per game facing a poor rushing team averaging 70-95 yards per game and after 8+ games and after being out rushed by 75 or more yards last game. Let
01-24-10	Minnesota Vikings +4 v. New Orleans Saints	Top	28-31	Win	100	44 h 2 m	Show
15* graded play on Minnesota as they take on New Orleans in the NFC Championship game set to start at 6:30 EST. An upset in the making based on our sports handicapping model/simulator and the fact that the Vikings have the better defense and the better running game. RB Peterson is expected to have a huge day and we project him to gain 100+ yards on the ground. More n this and other matchups shortly. Supporting this graded play is a proven system that has produced a record of 26-17 against the MONEY LINE making 33.7 units since 1983. Play on road teams versus the money line in a game involving 2 very good teams that have outscored opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
01-24-10	New York Jets +8 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	17-30	Loss	-105	41 h 60 m	Show
25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game set to start at 2:00 EST. Our complete research and sports handicapping model have produced a very high probability that the Jets will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. The jets
01-17-10	New York Jets +8 v. San Diego Chargers	Top	17-14	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on San Diego set to start at 4:40 EST in the AFC Divisional Round. Our handicapping model shows a very high probability that the NY Jets will cover the spread. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-30 ATS since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 8 or more games that are passing between 5.9-6.7 PYA and now facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9-6.7 PYA and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Although just one factor, we believe this is a very significant factor reflecting the confidence this Jets team has when installed as dogs. Jets are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Jets have the better rushing offense and defense and this combination is just going to be too much for the Chargers to overcome. Our research shows that the Jets will gain a MINIMUM of 125 rushing yards. In past games where they rushed for 125 or more rushing yards they are 7-1 ATS this season and 43-14 ATS since 1992. We actually believe that the Jets will be closer to 200 yards rushing than 125 yards rushing and in past games where the Jets have gained more than 175 rushing yards they are 6-1 ATS this season and 27-6 ATS since 1992. No doubt this is strength against strength as the Chargers rank 4th in points scored per game against the best defense in the NFL allowing just 14.8 per game. The Jets also have the BEST passing defense allowing only 153 YPG. Tis is where SD will have major problems as the large majority of their offense is through the air. The defense knows they do not have to completely shut down the Charger offense. They just must limit any big plays and make SD execute the length of the field. The Red Zone matchups clearly favor the Jets and SD will have more FG
01-17-10	Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Minnesota Vikings	Top	3-34	Loss	-125	3 h 11 m	Show
15* graded play on Dallas as they take on Minnesota set to start at 1:00 EST in the NFC Divisional Round. Our handicapping model/simulator shows conclusive projections that Dallas will control and dominate this game. There is also a significant probability that Dallas will win this game, BUT there is no advantage to splitting this wager between line and money line bets. The dominant factor in this game is the Dallas defense and in particular the run defense. Dallas has not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season and rank 4th in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed at 90 per game. Dallas will contain the run and force Favre to beat them through the air. As we saw the past two weeks Dallas has a wide array blitz schemes and this pass rush will create major problems for Favre in his progressions. NT Ratcliff was a major and largely overlooked reason that Dallas contained McNabb so very well. Ratcliff has the ability to not only neutralize the LOS, but to also get a push up field. This push eliminated McNabb
01-16-10	Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Indianapolis Colts	Top	3-20	Loss	-120	22 h 40 m	Show
10* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Indianapolis in the AFC Divisional Round set to start at 8:15. Our handicapping model and simulator show a high probability that Baltimore will cover the spread and also has a very reasonable opportunity to also win the game. With that said we like adding a 2* amount with Baltimore on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-21 ATS for 68% winners since 2004. Play on road teams revenging a loss against opponent and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Baltimore does have the chance to avenge a 17-15 home loss to the Colts where they were 1 point dogs. However, this Ravens team is far better edition than the one that played that game. I am a big believer that teams should not shut down their units simply because they have home field advantage and/or the number one seed. It only creates a negative situation among the substitutes and more importantly it is difficult to start up a cold engine after that engine ran a long distance at optimal levels. In other words, I believe that the Colts will have difficulty with timing and offensive flow. Plus, with all of the outcry from fans that the Colts gave up o going a perfect 16-0, there is even more pressure on them to proven that decision was a worthy one. Baltimore
01-10-10	Green Bay Packers v. Arizona Cardinals +2	Top	45-51	Win	100	22 h 4 m	Show
15* graded play on Arizona as they host Green Bay set to start at 4:40 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-4 ATS for 87% winners since 1999. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent and with teams winning record programs in the second half of the season. This is immediate revenge as well after last week
01-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	22 h 27 m	Show
10* graded play on Dallas they host Philadelphia set to start at 8:00 EST. My handicapping model predicts that Dallas will win this game ATS and we fully expect another double digit blowout. What can possibly change after two dominating wins over the same opponent? Not much in our opinion and although the Eagles Hc Ried has never lost an opening round play-off game he has never had to face a team with a defense playing as well as Dallas is right now. I could simply provide you the play report for last week
01-09-10	New York Jets +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals	Top	24-14	Win	100	18 h 14 m	Show
10* graded play on the Jets as they take on Cincinnati set to start at 4:30 EST. Our research clearly shows that the Jets have an excellent opportunity to win this game. It has been stated for decades and perhaps overused, but in this game defense will win the game and this Jets defense could carry them to the AFC Championship. First things first though. Jets also have the best running attack in the game and when combined with the best defense makes for a lethal combination. Jets can control the tempo of the game on both sides of the LOS with a dominating run game and make it very difficult for the Bengals to have any 50+ scoring drives. Fact is we strongly believe that the Bengals have little if any chance at containing the Jets running game. This in turn sets up play action pass plays in man coverage and allows Sanchez to execute high percentage plays. We also believe that in order for the Bengals to win this game they must be near equal to the Jets in TOP. Again, because of the Jets defense and running game there si little chance of that happening either. The Jets running game is three fold. Jones is the featured back and is extremely quick and elusive. Then the Jets can hand off to power runner Greene. They will utilize Smith in the Wildcat formation. Another matchup the Jets will enjoy is having their CB dominate Ochocinco. Jets CB Darrelle Revis plays a very physcial style of corner and used that to great success in last week
01-07-10	Texas +4.5 v. Alabama	Top	21-37	Loss	-110	20 h 29 m	Show
First, I would like to thank each and everyone of you for another successful CFB season. I appreciate your support and loyalty and I promise to provide even better research in 2010 that will enable all of us to win even more dough. With that said, make a commitment now to get all of my plays in ALL SPORTS. I am entering my 17th year of sports handicapping and with each passing year gain more experience and knowledge that I can pass on to you and provide you with the information you need to win. My 26-11-1 ATS bowl run is a sound example. Next up the NFL play-offs and then one of my All-time favorites March Madness. Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Alabama in the BCS Championship game slated to start at 8:10 and will take place in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl. AiS shows an 88% probability that Texas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and an 80% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-19 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 45.7 units since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line and is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. What makes this an exceptional system is that the average play has been a +281 dog. Here is a 2nd money line system that has produced a 20-10 record for 67% winners and has made 29.5 units since 1992. Play on neutral field dogs versus the money line that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The average play of this system has been a +198 DOG. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Texas will score 22 to 28 points. Note that Alabama is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Ingram is going to find it very tough going against the Texas defensive front. AiS shows a 90% probability that Alabama sill gain 3 to 3.5 yards per rush. Note that Texas is a solid 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992.
01-06-10	Troy +3 v. Central Michigan	Top	41-44	Push	0	8 h 7 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Troy as they take on Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Troy will win this game. There are a series of game dependent angles that support Troy in this game. Let
01-05-10	Iowa +5.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	24-14	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on IOWA as they take on Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl set to start 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Iowa will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. GT runs the spread offense and this plays into the strengths of the Iowa defense. AiS shows a 95% probability that GT will have less than 150 net passing yards. Note that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is also a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring and allowing 17 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Iowa has had weeks to prepare for this game and GT
01-04-10	Boise St v. TCU -7	Top	17-10	Loss	-100	9 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on TCU as they take on Boise State set to start at 8:10 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that TCU will win this game by 8 points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Boise State will gain between 100 and 150 rushing yards. Note that TCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 92% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points. TCU is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Patterson is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games as the coach of TCU. Both QB
01-03-10	Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3	Top	0-24	Win	102	6 h 41 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Eagles in a huge game set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Dallas will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven money making system posting a 43-18 ATS mark for 71% winners. Play against road teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points and in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. Dallas defense is [playing very well and this puts them into a solid situation for this game. Note that they are a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. Only the Giants have scored more than 21 points against the Dallas defense. Eagles have a new center in Coles and his inexperience will be exploited. He is going against the best nose tackle in the game in Ratcliff. Eagles starting center Jackson made 71 straight starts and has been lost for the season. Cole is also responsible for making the pass protection calls as well and then must contain a very quick and strong Ratcliff. Ratcliff will get movement into the pocket and force McNabb to move right or left. Dallas will play QB containment and McNabb will not have opportunities to scramble and then unload long passes downfield. Dallas will limit Jackson
01-03-10	Tennessee Titans v. Seattle Seahawks +6	Top	17-13	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Seattle as they host Tennessee. AiS shows an 75% probability that Seattle will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven money making system posting a 28-8 ATS for 78% winners since 1999. Play on road teams off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite and after the first month of the season. Seattle is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. Fisher is just 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of Tennessee. Take Seattle.
01-03-10	Washington Redskins +3 v. San Diego Chargers	Top	20-23	Push	0	5 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Washington as they take on San Diego. AiS shows a 76% probability that Washington will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven money making system posting a 165-109 ATS mark since 1983. Play on road teams after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Washington is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Take Washington.
01-03-10	Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2	Top	20-10	Loss	-105	2 h 41 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Atlanta set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Tampa Bay will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven money making system posting a 33-10 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Atlanta is just 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. Take Tampa Bay
01-03-10	Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills -8	Top	7-30	Win	100	2 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Buffalo as the take on the Colts. AiS shows a 74% probability that Buffalo will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven money making system posting a 105-66 AYS record since 1999. Play against road teams out gaining opponents by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Buffalo is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus poor rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. AiS shows an 88% probability that the Colts will pass for 6 to 6.5 net yards per attempt. They are just 8-29 ATS since 1992 when they pass for 6 to 6.5 net yards per attempt. Take Buffalo.
01-02-10	Michigan State +8 v. Texas Tech	Top	31-41	Loss	-115	10 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on MSU as they take on Texas Tech set to start at 9:00 EST in the Alamo Bowl taking place in San Antonio. AiS shows an 84% probability that MSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Turnovers will be a big factor in this game and the AiS shows a 92% probability that TT will have more turnovers than MSU. Note that MSU is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. AiS shows an 80% probability that TT will have 3 turnovers. TT is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. I have no problem adding a 3* amount to this play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 against the money line making 33.6 units since 1999. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an inexperienced QB as starter. I am also playing against an inexperienced play calling coach as well. Leech had a feel for his team and is a great game coach. To now have an assistant take over that responsibility and the pressure associated with it will lead to poor decisions and poor execution. MSU has several suspensions due to a campus fight, but they have depth and their best receiver Blair White will enjoy significant advantages in man coverage. MSU is going to contain the TT pass rush and their DE Sharpe and Howard. Take MSU.
01-02-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. South Florida	Top	3-27	Loss	-110	15 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Northern Illinois in the International Bowl taking place in Toronto Canada. AiS shows an 85% probability that NI will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 54% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. South Florida is not a disciplined team as evidence by the large amount of called penalties against them. Note that NI is a solid 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus mistake prone teams -getting nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992. Huskies run defense is a strong part of their scheme. In order to weaken that strength SF will use a lot of spread formations. NI, however, has had a month to prepare for this game to design defensive alignments that will minimize and confuse the SF offensive line. Red shirt freshman Daniels has had his growing pains this year, and is still having trouble recognizing coverages fast enough in order to read to whom the ball should be thrown. In using new and varied looks pre-snap, NI will be able to literally get in the head of Daniels and he may be more worried about where the pressure may come from than making his post snap reads. Take Northern Illinois. Ai Simulator 5* graded play on UNDER Northern Illinois/South Florida. AiS shows a 75% probability that 49 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2004. Play under with any team against the total in non-conference games and off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. 82% probability that neither team will score 21 or more points based on the AiS projections. Take the UNDER.
01-01-10	Cincinnati +13 v. Florida	Top	24-51	Loss	-105	9 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Cincinnati as they face Florida in the Sugar Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Cincinnati will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 106-49 ATS since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. As you will see, my research, shows that the Cincinnati secondary will do an excellent job at containing at containing Tebow and company. AiS shows a 92% probability that Cincinnati will allow 200 to 250 net passing yards. Note that Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per carry. Note that Cincinnati is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Cincinnati is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 75%) over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Cincinnati WR Gilyard matches up well against Florida. Florida will press him at the LOS, but his quickness will elude many of these bumps. Once free he will be wide open in Florida
01-01-10	LSU v. Penn St. +1	Top	17-19	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State as they take on LSU playing in the Capitol One Bowl game set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that PSU will win this game. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will out gain LSU by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that PSU is a rock solid 15-1 against the money line (+15.6 Units) when they are out gain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-33 for 68% winners since 1992. Play on any team off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less. LSU is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Miles is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of LSU. PSU will establish the run early. LSU has a great DT in Woods, who can clog up the interior, but the linebackers take far too long to shed blocks and are overly aggressive. This matches up well against PSU RB Royster, who is a very patient runner allowing blocks to take place before bursting through holes. Misdirection running plays will help contain the LSU perimeter defense and then that of course sets up play action pass plays. PSU offensive line is on the best in the nation at pass protection and pick-up blitz schemes extremely well. LSU does have advantages on the perimeter when on offense, but PSU is one of the best pass rushing units in the nation. They got 35 sacks and LSU QB Jefferson has had trouble with pressure all season. Pressuing Jefferson negates any vertical routes. Take PSU.
01-01-10	Northwestern +9 v. Auburn	Top	35-38	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Auburn in the OutBack Bowl starting at 11:00 EST taking place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. AiS shows an 80% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Northwestern is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Auburn is a series weak situations noting they are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992. The Northwestern offense will be able to move the ball in long ball control drives. Their offensive scheme is designed to take advantage of short underneath passes and this forces Auburn to have 5 defenders underneath and 2 safeties in a dominant cover-2 scheme. Although NW WR do not have game breaking speed, a series of successful underneath routes will set-up the
12-31-09	Stanford v. Oklahoma -10	Top	27-31	Loss	-105	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Stanford in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 11 or more points. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will score 28 or more points. Note that the Sooners are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game as the coach of Oklahoma. The Oklahoma offense will have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Oklahoma will have great advantages on the perimeter no matter the defensive scheme. Stanford CB Evans, Bademosi, and Sherman will have major difficulties covering the Sooner WR corp. The Sooners have advantages in size and speed. All of the Sooner WR are quite dangerous after the catch and this is Stanford
12-31-09	Air Force +5 v. Houston	Top	47-20	Win	100	24 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Air Force as they take on Houston set to start at NOON EST 12/31/2009. This the 2009 edition of the Armed Forces Bowl taking place at Ft. Worth Texas. AiS shows an 80% probability that Air Force will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 for 71% ATS winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a road favorite and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. AiS shows a 92% probability that Air Force will gain 300 or more rushing yards. Note that Houston is a miserable 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 300 or more rushing yards since 1992. Houston is also just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after out gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. This is an interesting matchup with the best FBS offense against the best passing defense. Air Force has had a month to prepare for this game and they will certainly bring blitzes from all areas and give different looks that will have a major effect on Houston
12-30-09	Bowling Green v. Idaho +1	Top	42-43	Win	100	19 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Idaho as they take on Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place at Bronco Stadium in Boise Idaho. AiS shows a 79% probability that Idaho will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-13 for 71% winners on the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after being out gained by opposition by 125 or more total yards last game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Idaho will gain a minimum of 9 net passing yards per attempt. Note that Bowling Green is just 1-6 against the money line (-7.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. 96% probability that Idaho will score 28 or more points. BG is just 18-42 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Idaho will show some new looks and wrinkles on defense with the single goal of making BG QB Sheehan hold onto the ball long enough to make mistakes. Idaho
12-29-09	Wisconsin +4 v. Miami (Florida)	Top	20-14	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on the Hurricanes in the Champs Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 19-13 against the MONEY LINE making 24.3 units since 1999. Play on a neutral field dogs versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB. Miami has a trio of solid running backs, who share the carries, but this running game is goig to have difficulty getting started. Keep an eye on Wisconsin DT Stehle, who weighs in at 310 pounds can stuff the interior running game and will require consistent double teams. As Badger fans we want him to be double teamed as that will free up the LB corp to fill gaps and make stops at the LOS. Wisconsin is excellent and pressuring QB and forcing them into mistakes and the matchups favor that today as well. Wisconsin
12-29-09	UCLA -4.5 v. Temple	Top	30-21	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on UCLA as they take on Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl set to start at 4:30 EST at RFK Stadium in Washington DC. AiS shows an 80% probability that UCLA will win this game by 6 or more points. Strength of schedule is a big factor as UCLA opponent
12-28-09	Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears +9	Top	30-36	Win	100	4 h 22 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Bears as they take on Minnesota set to start at 8:20 EST on Monday Night Football. AiS shows an 85% probability that Chicago will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-11 ATS for 74% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick that are average offensive teams scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG and after scoring 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system that has gone 65-30 ATS for 68% winners sine 1983. Play on home dogs or pick in December off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 51-23 ATS for 69% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs or pick in December after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Bears are also a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992. Bears DE
12-27-09	Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Redskins	Top	17-0	Win	100	9 h 23 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Dallas as they take on Washington set to start at 8:20 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 59-35 ATS since 2004. Play on road teams that have good rushing teams gaining 125 to 150 RY/game facing an average rushing team gaining 95-125 RY/game. Washington lost at Dallas 7-6 on November 22nd. Note that Washington is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points since 1992. Washington showed last week in a 33 point loss to the Giants they have all but mailed it in. If they can
12-27-09	Denver Broncos +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles	Top	27-30	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on Philadelphia set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Denver will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 56% probability of winning the game. An alternative wager is place a 7* amount on the line and a 3* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-14 ATS for 74% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. This system is 7-0 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Here is a money line system that has gone 23-9 making 23.2 units since 1983. Play on any team versus the money line off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more and is a marginal winning team posting a win percentage of 51% to 60% playing a winning team. The Raiders had 7 big running plays last week and all of the m were on cutbacks. You can bet that the backside defense will be
12-27-09	New York Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -3.5	Top	29-15	Loss	-103	6 h 27 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Colts as they take on the Jets set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that the Colts will win this game by 6 or more points. Current money lines are in the neighborhood of -200 to -220 and that too offers up a solid optional opportunity to wager just a 4* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-2 against the money line for 95% winners since 1999. Play on home teams versus the money line that are quick starting teams outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Indy is also a solid 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Yes, this is a tough game given the uncertainty of playing time for the Colts starters. yet, Dallas Clark needs 11 receptions to become just the 2nd TE in NFL history to get 100+ receptions. Colts rookie QB Curtis Painter may see a lot of playing time in this game, but I do not see this as being a major problem for the Colts. Painter is a pro-style QB standing at 6
12-27-09	Jacksonville Jaguars v. New England Patriots -9.5	Top	7-35	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New England as they host Jacksonville set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that the Patriots will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 ATS for 71% winners since 1983. Play against road team after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points and in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. JAX is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. This is a game that allows the patriots to open up the offense. Welker and Moss can dominate a defense, but Brady must look off his first read then throw to the second or come back to the first. I believe that one of the reasons the Patriots have not been able to finish off opponents this year is simply because they have to receivers to go to. The Patriots don
12-26-09	North Carolina +3 v. Pittsburgh	Top	17-19	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Pittsburgh in the Meinecke Car Care Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place in Charlotte, North Carolina. AiS shows a 77% probability that UNC will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-6 for 82% ATS winners sine 1992. Play against any team in non-conference games that is a good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA and after 7+ games. AiS shows an 88% probability of gaining 150 to 200 net passing yards. Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. UNC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. HC Butch Davis is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. UNC will win this game with a pounding running game led by Ryan Houston. I expect him to get at least 25 touches and he has the size and strength to wear down a defensive front. Although UNC has not had success in the passing game, they do have a very talented QB in Yates. HOWEVER, with the pounding running game, Yates will have the opportunity to call audibles simply by reading the position of the safeties. Pitt defense will have to show it
12-26-09	Ohio v. Marshall +3	Top	17-21	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Marshall as they take on Ohio University set to start at 1:00 EST. This is the 2009 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. AiS shows a 78% probability that Marshall will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. As an optional and alternative wager, I like a 5* on the line and a 2* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-51 for 66% winners against the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 31-10 against the money line since 1999. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 and is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 31-13 against the money line making 17.5 units since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game. Let;s take a look at the a few fundamental key matchups heavily favoring Marshall in this game. Marshall has a huge edge when on offense and it starts with the OL. Ohio has had trouble stopping the run especially on the perimeter. Their ends just don
12-24-09	SMU +13 v. Nevada	Top	45-10	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on SMU as they take on Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that SMU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS since 1999 for 77% winners. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in non-conference games and is a good team winning between 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 119-64 ATS for 65% winners since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. Based on the AiS projections to the key number to look for is 28 points scored by SMU. AiS shows a 90% probability that SMU will score 28 in this game. Note that SMU is a solid 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Nevada, however, is just 0-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Fundamentally, Nevada has rushed the ball twice as much as they throw for the season and the same will occur in this game. Luke Lippincott is one of three 1000 yard rushers for Nevada, but will be out for this game. Nevada still has the personnel to be successful running the ball. It is where play action pass occur that I believe SMU does have the advantage and the opportunity for interceptions. Nevada simply shows various formations (pistol, misidrection, and I) and challenges a team to stop any of them. When QB Kaepernick lines up about 4 yards behind center and RB Taua 3 to 4 yards behind him you will now that is the pistol. Often times they have the WR in motion. SMU has had trouble stopping the run and I do not expect them to be able to slow them down in this game, but SMU has an even greater advantage on offense with their passing game. Nevada simply does not have anyone that cover the SMU WR
12-22-09	BYU +3 v. Oregon State	Top	44-20	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on BYU as they take on Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-8 ATS for 78% winners since 1999. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. 88% probability that BYU will score 28 or more points. Note that BYU is a solid 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992 while Oregon State is 25-55 ATS (-35.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. OSU is also 1-7 against the money line (-7.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Here is a solid MONEY LINE system that has gone 24-9 ATS for 73% winners since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR against an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. one of the most important matchups in this game is between BYU
12-21-09	New York Giants -3 v. Washington Redskins	Top	45-12	Win	110	36 h 33 m	Show
December 15, 2009 Giants versus Redskins 1:00 December 20, 2009 The Giants and the Cowboys have all but given the division championship to the Eagles. The Giants have an outside shot, especially given Dallas' December woes. This is a 3* graded play on the Giants. A Simulator shows an 73% probability that the Giants will the Giants will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a solid and proven money making system that has gone 30-9 ATS since 2004. Play against home dogs or pick that are an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG. 45% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points. Giants are an impressive 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sound 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Meanwhile the Redskins are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. OK, sounds like an old story for any team let alone an NFC East team, but the Giants MUST get the running game going in a dominating fashion. Washington is very vulnerable to a pounding running game and the matchups favor the Giants to have big success on the ground. Brandon Jacobs was having great success against the Eagles until that game turned into a shoot out. He has a 90% probability of getting 100 yards against the Redskins. Obviously, if he is pounding the run game between the tackles it will most assuredly open up play action pass plays. It will also allow for slant routes and especially the WR or flanker screen. Based on the matchups, I see the Giants winning BIG. I appreciate all of you that purchase all of my daily sports cards each and every day. It has been a banner year in sales. I would like to open up the opportunity for you to get a Bowl subscription now. I went 13-1 ATS in the bowl games last season. That's not a typo. 13-1 ATS so join me for another highly profitable bowl season.
12-20-09	Middle Tenn St +4 v. Southern Mississippi	Top	42-32	Win	100	50 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee state as they take on Southern Mississippi set to start at 8:15 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that MTST will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 117-64 since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as an dog and with a winning record on the season. Also supported and reinforcing this play is a series of game dependent angles working in favor of Middle Tenn. State. Note that they are a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season. MDTST HC Stockstill is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of MTST. There is doubt in my mind that MTST's running game will be the featured highlight. I studied the matchups and I don't see any way for Southern Miss to be able to contain this ground game. The strong ground games keeps the ball out of SM's offensive hands and works the TOP to their favor. SM is also very vulnerable to the passing game and let's keep in mid that MTST gained 417 passing yards in a 62-24 win against Western Kentucky. So, if SM can't stop the run MTST may not even need to throw more than 20 times in this game. But, play action pass will be there all game long should they elect to exploit those man coverages. These are basic reads for any QB at any level and requires only to identify the location of the safeties. So, play Middle Tennessee State for a 10* graded Titan.
12-20-09	San Francisco 49ers +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles	Top	13-27	Loss	-126	5 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the 49ers as they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles set to start at 4:15 EST. This game was moved due to the record breaking snowfall in Philadelphia. Wind will be an issue in this game and the better running team is certainly the 49ers based on the matchups I have studied and reviewed. AiS shows an 86% probability that the 49ers will lose this game 9 or fewer points. The line has moved higher with the public perception that the frigid temps and big time snowfall is an advantage for Philadelphia. I would look to work for 9.5 points and I believe you will be able to get it in a few hours before game time. The strong swirling winds almost by them,selves eliminate the log ball in Philadelphia's arsenal. Supporting this graded play is a proven system that has produced a record of 73-38 ATS since 1999. Play against home teams in conference games after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Eagles will gain between 75 and 100 rushing yards and that the Eagles will gain between 6 and 6.5 YPP. Note that over the past 3 seasons the 49ers are 6-1 ATS when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards and are 5-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons when the allow 6 to 6.5 Yards per play. The 49ers present severe matchup problems in how to cover both Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. You will see QB Smith in numerous roll out designed pass plays. They will be able to establish the run and this will open up both play action roll-out and play-action out of the gun. The running game will be augmented in the ability to hit TE Davis on easy hook and slant patterns while rolling out a few strides right. The 49ers defense also has the personnel to disrupt McNabb and more importantly contain him with the pocket. After all, they did a great job against a similar offensive team in the Cardinals just last week forcing 7 turnovers. No doubt, you will see the 49er corners Bly and Spencer be very aggressive at the LOS looking to more than just bump the Eagle receivers. They did a great job against the Cardinals WR and now they can do an equal job or better against smaller Eagle wideouts. Take the 49ers.
12-20-09	New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +7	Top	17-10	Push	0	4 h 40 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Buffalo as they host the New England Patriots set to start at 1:00 EST. Due to the record breaking snow storm on the East Coast I was unable to get these plays out to you until this morning. AiS shows a 78% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system that has produced a record of 19-11 against the money making 20.7 units since 1983. Play against road favorites versus the money line with an excellent offense averaging 360 or more total yards/game and after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
12-20-09	Arizona Cardinals v. Detroit Lions +14	Top	31-24	Win	100	3 h 9 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Detroit as they take on Arizona set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system that has produced a record of 25-2 ATS for 93% winners since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% and playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
12-19-09	Wyoming +10.5 v. Fresno State	Top	35-28	Win	100	21 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Fresno State set to start at 4:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Wyoming will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles. Note that FSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 50 points or more last game since 1992; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Even HC Hill is in a series of poor roles noting he is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of FSU. FSU may have the top rusher in yards per game in the nation, but the near opposite can be said for their defense that ranks 111th against the rush. Based on my research and the AiS a key dominant factor to Wyoming covering and possibly pulling off the big upset is that Wyoming will gain more than 150 yards rushing. That will control the control the clock and force FSU
12-17-09	Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3	Top	35-31	Loss	-100	8 h 47 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Jacksonville as they host the undefeated Colts set to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-10 ATS for 76% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick that is an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG and after scoring 14 points or less last game. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 38-15 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent and off a home loss. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick off an upset loss as a favorite and is winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Here is a 4th system that has gone 29-8 ATS for 78% winners since 1999. Play against any team after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite and with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. Colts are actually in a series poor roles for an ATS win tonight. They are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992; 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. HC Del Rio is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus very good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of Jacksonville. The first time these two teams met only a failed 2-point conversion enable the Colts to walk away with a win. The Colts have listed 29 players on their injury report. Hc Caldwell has said only healthy players will play in this game and I strongly believe that Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Charlie Johnson will not play tonight. Freeney is obviously a big loss for the Colts defense. This is a significant development as the one dominant weakness on the Jag's OL is the interior line. If Freeney does not play it minimizes the Colts pressure opportunities. To reiterate the Colts defensive front 7 are banged up and the Jags will be able to establish the running game featuring Jones-Drew. The Jags will keep both safeties back on OVER coverage and hey will look to pressure Manning with well times blitzes. The streak ends here. Take Jacksonville.
12-14-09	Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers +4.5	Top	9-24	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play OVER the posted total in the Monday Night Football game between Arizona and the 49ers set to start at 8:30 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that 45 or more points will be scored. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 77-37 for 68% winners since 1983. Play over with any team against the total off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival and in the last 4 weeks of the regular season. 43% of these games have gone over the total by a minimum of 7 points. Arizona is just 19-8 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992; 37-21 OVER (+13.9 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. HC Whisenhunt is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of Arizona. AiS shows an 88% probability that Arizona will gain 350 to 400 total yards. Note that they are a solid 10-2 OVER in past games where this occurred over the past 3 seasons. Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the 49ers as they take on Arizona in MNF action. AiS shows a 76% probability that SF will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 115-25 for 82% winners since 1983. Play against road teams versus the money line revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a upset win as an underdog. SF running game will very effective tonight and the AiS shows a 92% probability that they will gain between 4 and 4.5 yards per carry. Note that SF is a solid 19-8 against the money line (+14.6 Units) in home games when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Take the 49ers.
12-13-09	Philadelphia Eagles v. New York Giants +1.5	Top	45-38	Loss	-110	8 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the NY Giants as they host the Eagles set to to start at 8:20 on Sunday Night Football. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play against road teams after 2 or more consecutive wins and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games playing a marginal winning team posting a record between 51% to 60% after 8+ games. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 39-15 ATS for 72% winners since 1999. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more and with a winning record on the season. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 25-6 against the money line for 81% winners since 2004. Play against road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. Here is a variation that has gone 29-5 for 85% winners since 1983. Play against road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. Here is a 5th system that has gone 20-7 for 74% winners since 1999. Play on home teams versus the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that the Giants will gain between 100 and 125 rushing yards. Note that the Eagles are 0-5 against the money line (-15.1 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons. NYG are a solid 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the Giants.
12-13-09	San Diego Chargers v. Dallas Cowboys -3	Top	20-17	Loss	-130	5 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host San Diego set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Dallas will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 271-182 since 1983 and has made 70.8 units in profits. Play against road teams after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. This system is a solid 10-3 ATS this season. Dallas is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games off a road loss since 1992; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Cowboys offense will be in high gear for this game as the AiS projects a 92% probability that they will gain more than 400 yards. Note that in past games where they gained 400+ total yards they are 5-2 ATS this season, 14-3 ATS over the past 3 seasons, and 43-13 ATS since 1992. The matchup that impresses me the most is the Cowboys LB covering the SD running backs. SD loves to run circle routes with Sproles and I do not see that being a consistent yard gainer today. SD offensive line has allowed just 1 sack in the past 82 pass attempts, but Dallas will get pressure on Rivers throughout this game. Ware is just too quick and strong for LT McNeill to contain. This will force the Chargers to double team him with a back and that eliminates the circle routes as well. Offensively, the Cowboys TE Whitten will have another huge day. Last week the Browns TE Moore was wide open and caught 6 passes for 80 yards. Of course SD will pay more attention and focus on Whitten, but he has significant advantages across the board. This will open up the running game as well with Barber and Jones. Jones is now fully recovered from a knee injury and I expect him to be at the level of play he produced in the first three weeks where he had at least 1 run in excess of 19 yards. He is the type of back that can break a big one on every touch. Take Dallas.
12-13-09	Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4	Top	21-14	Loss	-100	16 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Bears as they take on the Packers set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that the Bears will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 67% probability that the Bears will win the game. Bears are out of the play-off hunt, but they can sure play spoiler in this classic NFL rivalry. It is going to be cold in Chicago and I have noted that the Packers WR jave not done well in cold conditions. Monday night, the WR, had 4 drops and a fumble and that cannot continue against any NFL team if they are to make it to the play-offs. Special teams are a big advantage for the Bears. The Bears have better returners, a better punter, better coverage units and a better kicker. The Packers have regularly allowed a big return this season after seemingly having momentum on their side. In studying the matchups, I actually believe the Bears running game will be solid. One of these aspects is that I anticipate that the Packers will fake a lot of blitzes in an attempt to confuse Cutler and make him prone to throwing into coverage. So, look for running plays out of the gun and play action pass plays out of the I-formation. Contrary yes, but it has been used before in the right spots and with great success. No doubt that the Bears defense will bring as much pressure on Rogers as possible. They are going to playing lose and have nothing to lose. This will create read problems for Rogers. The Bears run a standard cover 2 defense and have been exploited with slants routes. By showing different looks not resembling the cover
12-12-09	Army +16.5 v. Navy	Top	3-17	Win	100	5 h 43 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Army as they take on navy set to start at 2:30 EST with the game being payed at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. AiS shows an 85% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Motivation is not needed for this intense rivalry, but Army also knows they get to a 6-6 record, which would be an incredible accomplishment for this team. Plus, they would then face Temple in the EagleBank Bowl game on December 29th. This story is worth mentioning and it is an example of the so many relationships CFB produces. Army HC Ellerson actually recruited Navy HC Niumatalolo while Ellerson was the Hc at Hawaii. Niumatalolo's family wanted so badly for their son to earn a scholarship that they put out a Samoan feast. Ellerson made the mistake of finishing the food on his plate to which the family would add more to his plate. Tradition. The meal worked and Ellerson offered him a scholarship. The friendship has lasted for more than 20 years now and his part of what make the Army/Navy game a tradition like no other. I also like a first half play not to exceed 4 units on Army plus the points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-7 ATS for 82% winners since 1999. Play on any team after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% and 49% of their games and now playing a winning team. For Army to have a chance in this game they must establish the pace of the game and needless to say get the lead. Army's best matchup will be their 6'10
12-06-09	Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Arizona Cardinals	Top	17-30	Loss	-105	23 h 33 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Arizona set to start on Sunday Night FB beginning at 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that the Vikings will win this game by 3 or more points. Minnesota is in a real strong position for another ATS win noting a 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Arizona is a weak 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Vikings ground game will perform near their average levels. The AiS shows a 90% probability that they Vikings will rush for 125 to 150 yards. Note that Arizona is 0-1 ATS this season, 1-3 L3 seasons, and just 9-43 ATS since 1992 in past games where they allowed 125 to 150 rushing yards. Minnesota is certainly one of the elite teams in the league this season. Peterson, however, has fumbled 6 times losing 5 of them. The league knows he is prone to a fumble as he too many times carries the ball away from his body in an attempt to get more yards. I mention this only because Peterson turnovers are literally the only way that Arizona can defeat the Vikings. A year ago, the Vikings physically destroyed the Cardinals and were leading 28-0 at the half. Favre is healthy and Warner is coming off a concussion suffered two weeks ago. Vikings have the 2nd best run defense mostly attributed to the Vikings getting off to fast starts and the opposition all but abandoning the run. Yet, they have a fantastic defensive front that will shut down the Arizona running game. Take the Vikings.
12-06-09	San Diego Chargers v. Cleveland Browns +14	Top	30-23	Win	100	4 h 37 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Cleveland as they host San Diego set to start at 4:05 ES. AiS shows a 78% probability that Cleveland will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 96-54 for 64% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick after 6 or more consecutive losses and in the second half of the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 33-11 for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a third system that has gone 49-21 ATS for 70% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites with an average defensive unit allowing 18 to 23 PPG facing a poor defensive team allowing 23-27 PPG and after a win by 10 or more points. Turner is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus poor ball control teams posting 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus terrible ball control teams posting <28 minutes TOP and <=16 FD's per game in all games he has coached since 1992. 88% probability that SD will gain between 100 and 125 rushing yards and allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt. Note that Cleveland is a solid 8-2 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards. Plus, they are 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt. Despite a huge amount of injuries to the Browns defense they continue to play well with the
12-06-09	Tennessee Titans v. Indianapolis Colts -6.5	Top	17-27	Win	100	15 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Colts as they take on the Titans set to start at 1:00 EST. Many times we see teams rebound from the abyss and then take on the elite NFL teams and more or less get crushed. Such is the case for this game. Colts, based on the AiS summary projections have an 84% probability of winning this game by 7 or more points. Tennessee has had a history of failing against strong passing teams. Note that the Titans are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992. Colts are a strong 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992. Jeff Fisher is a weak 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game as the coach of the Titans. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Colts will score 28 or more points and also gain 8 or more net passing yards per attempt. Note that the Titan are 1-8 ATS last 3 seasons and 10-45 ATS since 1992 when the allowed 28 or more points. They are 0-3 ATS this season, 0-6 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 9-35 ATS since 1992 when they allow 8 or more net passing yards in a game. Much has been made by Manning
12-05-09	Texas -14 v. Nebraska	Top	13-12	Loss	-101	9 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Nebraska in the Bi-12 Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 90% probability that Texas will win this game by 14 or more points. It all comes together for Texas today and given all the importance of this game they will crank all aspects of the game to top performance levels. AiS also shows numerous and significant game dependent projections that overwhelmingly support Texas. 90% probability that Nebraska will not gain 100 or more rushing yards. Note that Nebraska is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons. 88% probability that Texas will gain between 400 and 450 total offensive yards. Note that Texas is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards over the last 2 seasons. 92% probability that Texas will allow 4 to 4.5 yards per play and also will outgain Nebraska by 0.5 to 1 yards per play. Note that Nebraska is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play since 1992. Texas is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play since 1992. Texas is also in several supporting situations coming into this game as well. They are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. Keys for Texas lie on two Nebraska defenders in Ndamukong and Jared Crick. Texas does not match up well at all in one on one situations as these two are arguably the best at their positions in the country. Yet, there is a host of blocking schemes that support Texas
12-05-09	Alabama v. Florida -3.5	Top	32-13	Loss	-110	6 h 60 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in the SEC Championship game set to start at 4:00 EST. AiS reveals an 87% probability that Florida will win this game by 6 or more points. I had some concern researching this game that Alabama knows Florida so well that they would consistently anticipate the Gators offensive plays and tendencies that would ultimately contain Tebow and company. Yet, the one player I kept coming back that makes a significant difference from last year
12-05-09	Houston v. East Carolina +3	Top	32-38	Win	100	18 h 58 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
12-05-09	Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh +2.5	Top	45-44	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt
12-04-09	Ohio +14 v. Central Michigan	Top	10-20	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Central Michigan in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Ohio U will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that CMU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. Note that Ohio U is a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Also an 80% probability that Ohio U defense will force 2 turnovers exact. Ohio is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Ohio U has steadily improved throughout the season and bring a extremely physical style of play to the game. Ohio U is playing their best football right now and I would not be surprised to see this game settled by a field goal late. Take Ohio University.
12-03-09	Oregon State +10 v. Oregon	Top	33-37	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Oregon set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that OSU will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and is a game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Of the numerous projections provided by the AiS, there is one that truly sticks out and supports OSU. AiS hsows a 94% probability that OSU will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play in this game. Note that OSU is a strong 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus mistake prone teams being nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The biggest advantage for OSU is their OL going up against an Oregon DL that lacks size and strength. This is a matchup that will provide for a great opportunity for RB Jacquizz Rogers, who has unreal quickness and tremendous vision, to get through holes. The OSU OL is doing a great job against far superior defensive lines and they will be the dominant reason that OSU covers this number and just might be heading to Pasadena. AiS shows a 45% probability that OSU will win the game. So, adding an optional 3* play on the money line is a solid investment. 5* graded play UNDER the posted total presently at 62.5. AiS shows a 75% probability that 75 or fewer points will be scored in this game. The dominant reason why is the OSU defense, who ranks first against the run in the Pac-10. Oregon, of course, brings a different animal to the table with their spread running offensive scheme. OSU has proven, though, that they have the gap discipline necessary to contain the Oregon offense. Here is a supporting system that has gone 29-9 UNDER for 76% winners since 1992. Play under with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after a win by 21 or more points facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. Oregon has an 87% probability that of gaining between 150 and 200 net passing yards. Note that OSU is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. OSU is also 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Take the UNDER.
12-03-09	New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills	Top	19-13	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Jets as they take on the Bills in Thursday night action starting at 8:20 EST and taking place at the Rogers Centre in Toronto Canada. AiS shows an 85% probability that the Jets will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-6 ATS for 81% winners since 2004. Play on any team revenging an upset loss against opponent as a home favorite and is a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. 49% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Jets are a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992. Buffalos is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992. AiS shows a 90% probability that they Jets will outgain the Bills by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that the Jets are an impressive 21-5 ATS when they outgain their opponents by 100 to 150 total yards since 1992. I like the matchup that the Jets have in CB Revis taking on TO. I have no doubt that Revis will contain TO in this game. Also, remember in the first matchup, the Jets Thomas Jones ran for 210 yards and a franchise record. The Jets
11-30-09	New England Patriots v. New Orleans Saints -1		17-38	Win	100	10 h 0 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play UNDER Saints/Patriots. AIS shows an 84% probability that 56 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-15 UNDER for 74% winners since 1983. Play under with home teams against the total off 2 consecutive road wins and with the game being played in weeks 10 through 13. Saints are a solid 24-11 UNDER (+11.9 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992. HC Belichick is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus extremely strong offensive teams scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of the Patriots. For all the talk about the Saints offense this season, just as much credit could be given to the defense, which is led by coordinator Gregg Williams, who is in his first season in New Orleans. Opponents are scoring an average of 20.4 points per game against the Saints. They lead the league in interceptions with 20 and have recovered nine fumbles, for the most takeaways in the league. Safety Darren Sharper, who has seven interceptions, three of which he has returned for a touchdown, is the leader of the secondary. There are two WR to address on the Patriots offense in Moss and Welker, who rank 4th and 1st in receptions respectively. I believe that the Saints defensive front will be able to strong enough pressure on Brady that will allow the secondary to double team or play over/under coverage on at least 1 of these WR. The biggest question mark right now is who will start at LT for the Patriots. Pro Bowler Matt Light has been out with a knee injury, but could return tonight. Sebastian Vollmer has done a steady job in his place, but would be completely overwhelmed and dominated by DE Will Smith. Smith will have a huge advantage against either one of them and that is on Brady
11-29-09	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -7.5	Top	17-20	Loss	-110	10 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Baltimore as they host the Steelers set to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Baltimore will win this game by 10 or more points. I had read throughout the week various reports that Roethlisberger was looking more and more like a certainty not to start after sustaining his 4th concussion in the past 4 seasons. The Ravens know this is a MUST game if they are to reach the playoffs. The Steelers and Ravens play each other twice in the remaining 6 weeks and they are both the two most complete teams of the contenders. Ravens QB Flacco has had strong success running the no huddle and it prevents the Steelers from getting their desired personnel on to the field. You will not see the Steelers blitz much at all and will force Flacco to make as many reads as possible. All of this
11-29-09	Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills +4	Top	14-31	Win	100	19 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Miami set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and a 62% probability that they will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 48-19 making 42.9 units for 71% winners since 2004. Play on any team versus the money line with an average rushing team gaining 95-125 RYPG) facing an average rushing defense allowing 95-125 RYPG after 8+ games and after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Miami is just 11-21 against the money line (-14.4 Units) in road games when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play since 1992.AiS shows an 88% probability that Miami will gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play in this game. This is going to be a very tough game for the Dolphins to win and continue their play-off hunt. In fact, they may just get a does of their own Wild Cat medicine. Marshawn Lynch has a significant shoulder injury and many scouts believe that Jackson is the better running back to begin with. Plus, he would be very effective out of the Wild Cat formation as well. Bills defensive front is vastly improved and held Jones-Drew to just 66 yards on 25 carries. They match up very well against another strong back in Ricky Williams and I strongly believe, based on the AiS projections, that they produce a similar result. Bills will have their 8th different OL unit this week. I am not all that concerned as Miami will be very hesitant to blitz aggressively given the offensive outburst the Bills showed last week. Owens will be a threat to sore on any play against a very suspect Miami secondary. Miami will be more concerned with limiting the big pass play and will be willing to give up the underneath patters. Again, TO is very dangerous with those
11-28-09	Washington State v. Washington -24	Top	0-30	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tulane as they take on SMU set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games. SMU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone 16-11 making 43 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor scoring defense allowing 31 or more points/game; after being shutout. Tulane is allowing 77 PPG on the season and they were shut out last week by UCF 49-0. SMU defense has been quite poor as well allowing 476.3 yards per game over their last 3 games and have allowed 434 yards per game in their home games. Tulane will be able to move the ball and score points against this defense. The last time Tulane was shutout was October 31 when they lost to LSU 42-0. The next game saw them win 45-38 versus UTEP 45-38 as 6.5 point dogs. Take Tulane. Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
11-28-09	Florida State +25 v. Florida	Top	10-37	Loss	-105	18 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Florida set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that FSU will lose this game by 24 or fewer points. I can still remember last year when I had a 10* Titan winner on Ole Miss, who like FSU, game into Florida as a 24 point dog. Ole Miss won that game and then game that glorious Tebow speech. I am certainly not calling for the upset here, but based on the AiS projections it will be far closer than most observers believe possible. FSU comes in with a severe chip on their shoulders losing 5 straight to this team and enduring a season where their beloved HC was being ridiculed by high level boosters. Nothing would be better than to see Bowden pull off the miracle and prove his naysayers wrong, in the payer
11-28-09	Tulane +19.5 v. SMU		21-26	Win	100	5 h 9 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tulane as they take on SMU set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games. SMU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone 16-11 making 43 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor scoring defense allowing 31 or more points/game; after being shutout. Tulane is allowing 37 PPG on the season and they were shut out last week by UCF 49-0. SMU defense has been quite poor as well allowing 476.3 yards per game over their last 3 games and have allowed 434 yards per game in their home games. Tulane will be able to move the ball and score points against this defense. The last time Tulane was shutout was October 31 when they lost to LSU 42-0. The next game saw them win 45-38 versus UTEP 45-38 as 6.5 point dogs. Take Tulane. Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
11-28-09	Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7.5	Top	0-27	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma as hey host Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry set to start at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1999. Play on a home team off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 more and with a winning record on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will pass for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Note that Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Oklahoma has lost 5 starters on offense including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. But, there has been ample time for this unit to rebuild given the tremendous depth on their roster. I also think getting humiliated by Texas Tech last week even adds more fuel to the competitive fires to not only defeat Oklahoma State, but humiliate them as well. Although this is the most losses Stoop
11-27-09	Nevada +14 v. Boise St	Top	33-44	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada as they take on Boise State set to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Nevada will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. This is going to be a very tough game for Boise State as Nevada has averaged 55 PPG over their last 5 games attributed mainly to a prolific running game. That running game is the best in the FBS and Nevada will be able to control the clock and the pace of the game. The running game will also keep the highest scoring offense in the land off the field and minimize their scoring opportunities. Nevada HC Ault is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-35 for just 40% winners, but has made an incredible 76.2 units in profits since 1992. Play on road dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. The average play for this system has been a +484 DOG! Take Nevada
11-27-09	Alabama Crimson Tide v. Auburn Tigers +10	Top	26-21	Win	100	3 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Auburn as they take on state rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl set to start at 2:30 and will be nationally on CBS. AIS shows a 83% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites with a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-25 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on a home team after a game where they forced no turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. By SEC standards, Auburn
11-27-09	Temple v. Ohio +3	Top	17-35	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Ohio University as they take on Temple set to start at 11:00 EST on
11-26-09	Texas -21 v. Texas A&M	Top	49-39	Loss	-105	23 h 30 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Texas as they take on Texas A&M set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Texas will win this game by 21 or more points. AiS projects a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 450 and 500 total yards. Note that A&M is an imperfect 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. 93% probability that Texas will score 28 or more points. Note that A&M is a weak 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. AiS also reveals a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 8 and 8.5 net passing yards. Note that A&M is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Texas defense matches up very well against A&M. Note too that A&M is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas in a big route.
11-26-09	Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys -13.5	Top	7-24	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Dallas as they take on Oakland set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Dallas will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-7 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Play on favorites when playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd supporting system proven by the test of 27 years. It has produced a record of 159-102 ATS for 61% winners since 1983. Play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog after the first month of the season. Oakland is in a series of poor roles while Dallas in a series of strong ones for this game. Oakland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. Dallas has failed to score in the past 2 weeks like a conference leader, but the matchups certainly favor a big output in this game. Oakland won last week led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, but they will struggle to score points against a Dallas defense that is playing quite well. He was successful at getting the WR involved in the game last week against the unfocused Bengals. This week will be far tougher as Dallas has two outstanding corners in man coverage. They are Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman. Let
11-26-09	Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions +12	Top	34-12	Loss	-115	16 h 41 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Detroit as they face the Green Bay Packers set to start on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 25-1 ATS since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=25% playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The SU record of this system is an amazing 17-10 and 48% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 24-7 for 77% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 8 or more points. It ios very rare that any system approaches a 50% 7 or greater cover level so these are two rare and very supportive systems for this play. Green Bay has never been a good investment when favored by 10 or more points. Note that they are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. AIS also shows a 93% probability that Detroit will allow 250 to 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that over the past 3 seasons Detroit is a strong 8-1 ATS when allowing 250 to 300 net passing yards. The Lions offense took flight last week. Stafford will not start, but Daunte Culpepper is starting and will certainly want to show the league he can still play. Last week
11-24-09	Ball State Cardinals v. Western Michigan Broncos -11	Top	22-17	Loss	-103	6 h 21 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Western Michigan set to start at 7:00 on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Ball State will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Ball State is reinforced by several game dependent angles. Note that Ball State is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Western Michigan is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-29 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 38.5 units in profits since 2004. The average money line play has been a +233 dog. Play against a home team versus the money line and is a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 passing yards per attempt and facing a weak passing team gaining <=5.6 PYA. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone just 34-45 for 53% winners, but has made 47 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game and after a loss by 28 or more points. Ball State
11-23-09	Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans -3.5	Top	20-17	Loss	-110	8 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Houston as they face Tennessee set to start at 8:30 EST on Monday Night Football. I also like a 5* play on the first half line as well based on the AiS summary projections. AiS shows a 76% probability that Houston will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 65-13 against the money line since 1983. Play against dogs versus the money line after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a bad team sporting a win percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record. Here is another system that has gone 26-9 ATS for 74% winners since 2004. Play against dogs or pick that are outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring 30 points or more last game. Tennessee is being outscored by a margin of 7.3 PPG. Tennessee is off a 41-17 win over Buffalo. Tennessee is very vulnerable in this game to a blowout type of game. Houston has the 3rd ranked passing attack in the NFL and their last 2 prime time home games were blowout wins against Denver and Jacksonville. Houston has the type of offense that matches up extremely well with Tennessee. Remember in the first game between these two teams Tennessee led 21-7 before losing 34-31. The secondary was exposed big time and they unit was at full strength. I fully expect Houston to get off to a fast start and that is the single best way to limit league rushing leader Johnson
11-22-09	Philadelphia Eagles v. Chicago Bears +3	Top	24-20	Loss	-100	24 h 24 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Bears as they host Philadelphia on NBC SNF slated to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Chicago will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game. The Bears could easily be 6-3 or even better had they not turned the ball over so many times in the Red Zone. Not all of Cutler's league leading interceptions have been his fault, but he takes the blame as the one throwing the ball. He had 5 ints against the 49ers and again not all were incorrect reads or poor throws. No doubt the Bears will use short ball control routes to get Cutler and the offense running smoothly. 3rd down has been a very big problem for the Eagles defense with blown assignments and coverages. This is where 3rd and short may be a golden opportunity for Cutler to enact play action pass routes knowing he will have man coverage on the perimeter and also have the TE on slant or short curl patterns. Eagles are without Westbrook, but his absence is not as big a loss as in recent years. McCoy is their back-up and he is a promising back to say the least. The Eagles have a league leading 11 pass plays of greater than 40 yards and 5th in pass plays over 20 yards with 33. The Eagles losses have occurred mainly because the respective defenses took away those opportunities with a staple of cover-2 schemes. The Bears defense is perhaps one of the best in the league at defending big plays and rank 5th with just 3 pass plays greater than 40 yards and 6th with 20 pass plays of 20 yards or more. This simple fact allows Cutler to relax knowing that the defense will make things happen and defend their side of 50 extremely well. Supporting this graded play is a strong reliable system sporting a 57-27 ATS mark since 1983. Play on dogs or pick in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 18-23 PPG after 8 or more games and after scoring and allowing 14 or less points. Bears are a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus excellent punt return teams of more than 12 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bears.
11-22-09	Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens +2.5	Top	17-15	Win	105	3 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Baltimore as they host the undefeated Colts set to start at 1:00 EST. The AiS shows an 83% probability that Baltimore will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of Baltimore is also supported by a series of game dependent angles. Note that Baltimore is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus mistake free teams being nailed for 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after allowing 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. They are also 4-0 ATS this season, 16-9 ATS over the past 3 seasons, and 63-29 ATS since 1992 when they allow less than 75 rushing yards in a game. AiS shows a 94% probability that the Colts will not gain more than 75 rushing yards in this game. I am a bit surprised that the public is backing the Colts in such a big way for this game. After all, the Patriots did physically and mentally defeat them for 3 quarters until some
11-22-09	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs +11.5	Top	24-27	Win	100	3 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Pittsburgh set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that KC will lose this game by 10 or fewer points and also has a 47% probability of winning the game. This is one of the rare times where there is a higher than average correlation between covering the number and winning SU. In sum, if KC covers ATS, then I would not be surprised to see them pull off a huge upset. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 103-63 ATS for 62% winners since 1999. Play against road teams outgaining opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. After getting swept by the Bengals, the Steelers are spent mentally and are certainly doubting their ability to repeat as Champions. Plus, the offense has sputtered in their last tow games and the under has won both. Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Here is another reason to believe a possible upset could occur with this supporting money line system that has produced a record of 57-38 making 33.9 units since 1983. Play against road teams versus the money line with an excellent rushing defense allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Take KC.
11-21-09	Oregon -6 v. Arizona	Top	44-41	Loss	-102	11 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon as they face Arizona set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on ABC TV. AiS shows an 85% probability that Oregon will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 27-3 for 90% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points average passing team allowing 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season and has ripped off a remarkable 19-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. Equally remarkable is that 63% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Arizona had major problems stopping Cal on the ground last week and that does not bode well for this game. RB LaMichael James is running wild and is benefitting from spread formations drawing LB out of the box. More important though is that the OL is playing tremendous team football and is getting bodies on defenders at both levels. This is the dominant reason that James is having strong success, but he also has the vision and quickness to gain yardage on plays that are stopped at the LOS. The Oregon spread will be just too overwhelming for Arizona to contain for 4 quarters. Take Oregon.
11-21-09	Rutgers v. Syracuse +9	Top	13-31	Win	100	16 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Syracuse as they host Rutgers set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 89% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 73-29 for 72% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference matchups and is a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. Here is a 4th system that uses the money line and exploits false favorites with an average play of +149 producing a 51-24 mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Rutgers is off a 31-0 pasting of South Florida where they were the beneficiary of four South Florida turnovers. Note that Rutgers is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. In Syracuse
11-21-09	LSU v. Mississippi -4	Top	23-25	Loss	-115	6 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Mississippi as they take on LSU set to start at 3:30 and can be seen on CBS TV. AIS shows an 83% probability that Mississippi will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-13 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. LSU does not matchup well against the Rebels. LSU is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Ole Miss is a strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. RB Dexter McCluster is going to be too much for the LSU defense to handle in this game. He lines up not only at RB, but at WR, and also runs the Wild Cat out of the QB position. LSU is vulerable to over pursuit as evident throughout this season and McCluster is a cut back runner that will exploit lanes created by over pursuit tendencies. Ole Miss has made significant personnel moves on the OL starting a true freshman in Bobbie Massie at RT and moving second team ALL-SEC tackle John Jerry inside to RG. At 335 pounds Jerry opened up huge running lanes for McCluster and other RBs in last week
11-20-09	Boise St v. Utah St. +24	Top	52-21	Loss	-115	12 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Utah State as they host Boise State set to start at 9:30 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Utah State will lose this game by 22 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-9 ATS for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games returning 8+ offensive starters facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 51-22 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 14.5 or more points after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Here is a 3rds system that has gone 88-45 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Utah State is in an excellent role for this game noting they are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. Utah State is a strong running team and to have any hopes of upsetting Boise State a team MUST have a strong running game. They gained 381 rushing yards on 52 carries in last week

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