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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-19-09	Miami Dolphins +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers	Top	24-17	Win	100	4 h 48 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they face the Carolina Panthers set to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that the Dolphins will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-3 for 89% winners since 2004. Play against favorites after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record on the season. Both teams enter this game with identical 4-5 records. I will places them squarely in the play-off hunt with 6 games to go. The loser has a big problem and will nearly have win out to make it to the playoffs. This game will be fun to watch as well knowing that Dolphins OC Henning was fired by Panther HC Fox in 2006. Now, in the NFL, you can be coach of the year and then within 2 seasons be fired so I do not think there is any revenge factor here at all. But, Henning has developed the Wild Cat and the Dolphins are the single most dedicated team to the Wild Cat in the NFL. They can run nearly any offensive set/scheme out of the Wild Cat. Moreover, Henning is the coach who brought Jake Delhomme to near star status and knows all of his tendencies. Carolina defensive front has been leaking oil in defending the run and the Wild Cat will expose those weaknesses even further. So, with that said, Ricky Williams will see a ton of action tonight out of all available offensive sets. What I thought was very interesting Carolina
11-19-09	Colorado +17 v. Oklahoma State	Top	28-31	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Colorado as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 80% probability that Colorado will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. The line for this game has been moving quite a bit given that Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson has to be helped off the field in their last game. Based on published reports he will start tonight and the line reflects that fact. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 103-48 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Although the AiS shows a 12% probability that Colorado will win the following system still underscores the ATS graded play and can be sued to make significant profits moving forward. This is a money line system playing an average dog of +265 and has made 46.7 units with a 47% winning record of 30-33 since 2004. Play against a home teams versus the money line in conference games that are good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA. Take Colorado and if possible get down a ½* unit on the money line too.
11-16-09	Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns +11.5	Top	16-0	Loss	-105	8 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play OVER Baltimore/Cleveland. AiS shows an 80% probability that 40 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 62-34 for 65% winners since 2004. Play over with any team against the total with a poor scoring defense allowing 24 or more points/game and after a loss by 21 or more points. Cleveland is a perfect 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. AIS also shows a 90% probability that Baltimore will gain between 350 and 400 yards. In past games where they gained between 350 and 400 yards they posted a 7-1 over mark past 3 seasons and a 33-13 OVER mark since 1992. Take the OVER. I also encourage you to get my 15* Titan play of the Month as well which then offers you the opportunity parlay the two plays together for even greater gain. If you choose to do this, I would not make the parlay greater than a 5* amount.
11-15-09	New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts -1	Top	34-35	Push	0	24 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Indianapolis as they take on the New England Patriots set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that the Colts will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 262-180 ATS since 1983. Play against road teams after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Colts are a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992; 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. New England in a series of poor roles for this game noting they are just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games since 1992; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. While being the New England HC, Belichick is just 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Perhaps the greatest matchup advantage for the Colts resides with TE Dallas Clark going up against Brandon McGowan. The press has said the McGowan essentially eliminated other great TE
11-15-09	Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers +3	Top	7-17	Win	100	21 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Green Bay as they host Dallas set to start at 4:20 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Green Bay will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 70% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-2 making 32.1 units since 1999. Play on home teams versus the money line that are quick starting teams outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Dallas is in a weak situation for this game noting they are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. GB is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team posting a win percentage of > 75% in the second half of the season since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. I believe that Green Bay
11-14-09	Texas Tech +5 v. Oklahoma State	Top	17-24	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Texas Tech as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Texas Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-24 making 40.6 units since 1999. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 versus the money line in conference games that are poor rushing teams gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR. AiS shows a 90% probability that TT will gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that they are a solid 11-1 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. AiS shows an 88% probability that TT will score more than 28 or more points. Note that TT is 9-2 against the money line (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma State is just 2-6 against the money line (-15.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TT is also supported by a series of solid situational angles. Note that they are 8-1 against the money line (+9.7 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage. of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 against the money line (+16.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992. Take Texas Tech.
11-14-09	Notre Dame +7 v. Pittsburgh	Top	22-27	Win	100	11 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Notre Dame as they face Pittsburgh set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on NBA TV. AiS shows a 79% probability that Notre Dame will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 50% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. AIS shows a 90% probability that ND will score 28 or more points. Note that ND is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; Pitt is just 20-61 ATS (-47.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 24-8 making 18 units since 1992 for 75% winners. Play on a road team versus the money line that is a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG facing a good team posting a differential of +50-+100 YPG after 7+ games and after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Take Notre Dame.
11-14-09	Texas-El Paso v. SMU -6	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	15 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on SMU as they host UTEP set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that SMU will win this game by 9 or more points. AiS also reveals a 92% probability that SMU will score 28 or more points in this game. UTEP is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. SMU is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. An 85% probability that SMU will out gain UTEP by 150 to 200 total yards. Note that UTEP is a weak 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Meanwhile, in past games where SMU out gained their opponent by 150 to 200 total yards they are a perfect 8-0 ATS. In addition, UTEp is in a poor situational role for this game noting they are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. SMU is a dominant passing team and UTEP HC Price has struggled to the tune of a 4-13 ATS mark when facing below average running teams averaging <=120 rushing yards/game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-8 on the money line since 1992 for 78% winners. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after a win by 3 or less points. Yes, this is a money line system, but it's components reinforce all of the aforementioned situations and the AiS grading. Take SMU.
11-14-09	Houston v. Central Florida +5	Top	32-37	Win	105	4 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Central Florida as they face number 12 ranked Houston set to start at High Noon EST. CF has an 83% probability of losing this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 59% probability that they will win the game. Houston has needed last drive scores to survive scares from lesser teams. The Houston defense ranks 115th out of 120 FBS teams so I can hardly agree at all that they are the 12th best team in the nation. As outlined by the AiS summary grading, there is a very real possibility that UCF will be able to exploit that weak defense and also to contain the most productive offense in the country. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 78-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. AiS also shows a 90% probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Houston is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and UCF is a solid 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Houston is also in a series of very weak situations noting they are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take UCF.
11-13-09	Temple v. Akron +6	Top	56-17	Loss	-100	4 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Akron as they take on Temple set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Akron will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 64% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 on the money line making 40 units in profits with the average play a +200 DOG since 1999. Play against a road team versus the money line after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd money line system that has gone just 98-105 making 74.5 units over the past 10 years and has also averaged a +203 DOG play. Play against road favorites versus the money line after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.
11-13-09	West Virginia v. Cincinnati -9.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-105	4 h 45 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Cincinnati as they face West Virginia set to start on ESPN at 8:00 EST Friday night. AiS shows a 78% probability that Cincinnati will win this game by 10 or more points. The so-called problem at who is the better QB is a bit of a stretch in this situation. It is a very unique situation in tat the team will perform well no matter who is taking snaps. They are that close a team and every member on this team is about the team and what they can do to get a National Title oportunity. Whether they get the respect necessary to ear that opportunity remains to be seen. Based on the AiS projections I would not surprised to see this a 20 point+ blowout. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-9 ATS for 73% winners since 1999. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will outgain WVU by a minimum of 2.0 yards per play. Note that WVU is an awful 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. Cincinnati is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play since 1992. HC Kelly is in a very strong role noting he is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Cincinnati.
11-11-09	Toledo +17 v. Central Michigan	Top	28-56	Loss	-103	10 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Toledo as they face Central Michigan set to start at 8:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 102-47 ATS for 69% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. AIS also shows an 88% probability that Toledo will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games Toledo is a solid 55-13 ATS (+40.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Central Michigan is just 20-49 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Toledo was trailing big at the end of the first half against Miami (Ohio), but played far better in the 2nd half and lost 31-24. Note that Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Teams are two of the top three offenses in the MAC. The top two passers and two of the top four tacklers in the Mid-American Conference will share the field Wednesday night. CMU's Dan LeFevour and Toledo's Aaron Opelt rank first and second, respectively, in the conference in passing efficiency. LeFevour has completed 176-of-257 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns (145.5 rating), while Opelt has completed 139-of-234 passes (59.4 percent) for 1,863 yards and 15 touchdowns (142.3 rating). Although Toledo ranks dead last in scoring defense in the MAC, I like the matchups presented in this game. Keep an eye on LB Archie Donald as he averaging 10.7 tackles per game. His responsibility will be to contain LeFevour and force him to pass the ball instead of scrambling and creating downfield opportunities. Take Toledo.
11-10-09	Ohio +3 v. Buffalo U	Top	27-24	Win	100	23 h 51 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Buffalo set to start at 7:00 and will be seen nationally on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Ohio will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-12 and making 30 units with the average play a +131 DOG since 2004. Play against a home team versus the money line off 2 straight losses against conference rivals facing an opponent off a road win. Buffalo did lose two straight conference games at Western Michigan 34-31 and last week at home to Bowling Green 31-30. Not just losses, but heart wrenching emotional ones that take them out of any bowl consideration whatsoever being 3-6. Last week they lost to Bowling Green as a favorite and the team knows they should have won that game. Ohio is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile Buffalo is just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. This season they have two common opponents and Ohio U went 2-0 SU and ATS while Buffalo went 1-1 and 0-2 ATS. Moreover, Ohio U averaged a solid 6 yards per play. Take Ohio University.
11-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Denver Broncos +3	Top	28-10	Loss	-110	11 h 30 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Denver as they face the Steelers set to start on Monday Night Football at 8:35. AiS shows an 81% probability that Denver will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-13 against the money line making 20.5 units since 1999 for 69% winners. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games and is a top-level team winning >=75% playing a team with a winning record. Not a good spot for Pittsburgh as a road favorite. Note that they are 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. Denver is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home underdog since 1992. I also like a 3* play on the first half line based on the AiS projections. Supporting this play is a system that has gone 42-16 ATS against the 1st half line for 72% winners since 2004. Play on home teams versus the 1rst half line after allowing 30 points or more last game facing an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. Denver is also 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992. The Denver defensive front and their AFC leading pass attack (23 sacks) will be the dominant reason the Broncos win this game. Roethlisberger leads all quarterbacks with 29 passes of 20 yards or more. He simply will not have enough time to survey the field. No team has had consistent success running the ball between the tackles against Denver. I fully expect that nose tackle Fields will dominate the LOS and this will force the Steelers to become 1 dimensional.
11-08-09	Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles	Top	20-16	Win	100	23 h 14 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Dallas as they face the Eagles et to start at 8:20 and will be seen on NBC Sunday Night FB. AiS shows a 90% probability that Dallas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and also 75% probability that they will win the game. The dominant component of this game will be the Dallas rushing game. They rank 6th in the league gaining 147.6 rushing yards per game while the Eagles rushing defense is average at best. The Eagles rank 15th rushing the ball and they have gotten away with a lack of a running game against weaker teams and defensive units. A solid running game will serve to achieve many goals in this game for the Cowboys. The most important is that it keeps the fast striking Eagles offense off of the field. 15 of the Eagles
11-08-09	Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +3	Top	7-17	Win	100	4 h 14 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they host the Baltimore Ravens set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that the Bengals will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 80-48 ATS since 1999. Play against any team that is outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game and after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. 39% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points, which brings to light the SU win potential for the Bengals. Cincinnati is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Lewis is a strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of the Bengals. The Ravens defeated the Ravens 17-14 on October 11 with Carson Palmer connecting with Caldwell for a TD with just 24 seconds left on the clock. Both of these teams rank within the top-10 in rushing offense and defense. The edge goes to the Bengals running attach, which augments play action pass opportunities to a wide array of receivers. Ravens safety Ed Reed will certainly be getting Palmer
11-07-09	Oklahoma v. Nebraska +5.5	Top	3-10	Win	100	21 h 4 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Nebraska as they face Oklahoma set to start at 3:30 EST. An alternative wager is to play 12* on the line and 3* on the money line. AiS shows an 87% probability that Nebraska will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 80-42 ATS since 1992. Play against a road team off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 92% probability based on the AiS projections that Oklahoma will pass for 6 to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Note that Oklahoma is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992. Here is a remarkable money line system that supports Nebraska and has produced a record of 38-10 for 79% winners since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games and with the game occurring in the second half of the season. Take Nebraska.
11-07-09	Florida State v. Clemson -9	Top	24-40	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Clemson over Florida State set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Clemson will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-16 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Clemson will score 28 or more points. Note that Clemson is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FSU is a poor situation noting they are 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992. Take the Clemson Tigers.
11-07-09	Army +17 v. Air Force	Top	7-35	Loss	-110	17 h 55 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Army as they face Air Force set to start at 3:30 EST. AIS shows an 87% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 18-16 on the Money Line and has made a whopping 60.3 units since 2004. Play on road dogs versus the money line that are terrible offensive team gaining <=280 YPG facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=440 YPG and after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. What is amazing about this system is that the average play has been a dog of +424! Obviously, this is going to a much closer game than the line indicates or the public believes possible. The AiS shows a 92% probability that Army will be outgained by less than half a yard per play. Note that Army is a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by <=0.5 yards/play since 1992. Air Force is in a poor situation noting they are just 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Army.
11-07-09	Ohio State +6 v. Penn St.	Top	24-7	Win	100	17 h 41 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio State over Penn State set to start at 3:30 EST. AIS shows a 79% probability that Ohio State will lose this game by 5 or fewer points and has a 52% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-13 for 76% since 1999. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game and after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Penn State finds itself in a horrid situation for this game given Ohio State
11-07-09	Florida Atlantic +7 v. Ala Birmingham	Top	29-56	Loss	-105	15 h 6 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they face UAB set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Florida Atlantic will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 69-31 for 69% winners since 2004. Play on a road team that is an average passing team gaining 6.4-7.5 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA after 7+ games. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 28 or more points. Note that FA is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FA is in a series of strong situational roles for this game. They are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take Florida Atlantic.
11-06-09	Boise St v. Louisiana Tech +21.5	Top	45-35	Win	100	11 h 60 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Louisiana Tech over Boise State set to start Friday Night at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AIS shows an 84% probability that Louisiana Tech will lose this game by 20 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 for 80% ATS winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games; returning 8+ offensive starters facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 47-18 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites that are very good teams posting a >=+10 PPG differential facing an average team posting a +/- 5 PPG differential after 7 or more games and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. LT certainly has a solid offense that will create big problems for Boise State. LT has averaged 40 points, 27 FD, 33:52 TOP, 5.6 RYPA (51 attempts for 284 yards per game average). They are hitting 62% of their pass plays for 8.8 YPA in those home games. They have just 1 common opponent in Hawaii, but those game stats show similar results for both Boise and LT. The biggest factor in this game is that LT will be very successful running the ball and controlling the clock. Take Louisiana Tech.
11-05-09	Miami Ohio v. Temple -17	Top	32-34	Loss	-110	8 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Temple as they host Miami (Ohio) set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Temple will win this game by 18 or more points. AiS projects a 90% probability that Temple will score 28 or more points. Note that Miami (Ohio) is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Temple also has a solid defense this season. AiS shows that they will allow 4 or less yards per play. Note that Temple is a solid 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they allow less than 4 total yards per play since 1992. AiS also projects an 88% probability that Temple will allow 14 or fewer points. Temple is a solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons. The Temple offense is based on a very strong running game led by RB Pierce who has 1033 rushing yards on 164 carries and 11 TD
11-05-09	Eastern Michigan +21 v. Northern Illinois	Top	6-50	Loss	-110	8 h 12 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Eastern Michigan as they face Northern Illinois set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that EMU will lose this game by 20 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-4 for 86% winners since 2004. The system has also gone an amazing 12-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off a home win and is a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 80% playing a terrible team winning <=25% of their games on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 74-35 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. Eastern Michigan is coming off a horrid loss to Arkansas 63-27, but covered the generous number of 37 points. This loss actually puts EMU into a strong situation for this game. Note that they are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. Take EMU.
11-03-09	Bowling Green v. Buffalo U -3	Top	30-29	Loss	-105	6 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Buffalo as they face Bowling Green set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 80% probability that Buffalo will win this game by 4 or more points. An optional consideration is play a small not amount not to exceed 2 units on the money line and play 5 on the line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-3 versus the money making 31.1 units for 92% winners since 2004. The average play has been a near pick-em situation at +106. Play on a home team versus the money line that is a good offensive team scoring 390 to 440 YPG facing a team with an average defense allowing 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a 2nd supporting system that has gone 26-7 ATS for 86% winners since 1999. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two bad teams sporting win percentages between 25% to 40%. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Buffalo will score between 35 and 41 points since 1992. Buffalo is a solid 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992. Bowling Green has an 86% probability of NOT scoring more than 21 points. Note that Buffalo is a solid 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. Take Buffalo.
11-02-09	Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints -11.5	Top	27-35	Loss	-110	8 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Saints as they host Atlanta set to start at 8:35 EST on Monday Night Football. AiS shows an 83% probability that the Saints will win this game by 12 or more points. Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992. Saints are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 94% probability that the Saints will score 28 o more points in this game. Note that in past games where the Saints exceeded 28 points they are 18-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons and 60-11 ATS since 1992. The Saints have a complete team this year and the AiS shows that the running game has a 90% probability of gaining 125 or more yards. Note that over the past 3 years when they exceeded 125 rushing yards they are a perfect 5-0 ATS. They also have a 95% probability of gaining 400 or more total yards. Note that they are 16-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons in games gaining more than 400 total yards. Take the Saints. Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Saints/Falcons. AiS shows a 75% probability that there will be 55 or fewer points scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 UNDER for 75% winners since 2004. Play under with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and with a poor passing D allowing a completion percentage of 60% or worse. Smith is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Atlanta.
11-01-09	Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Green Bay Packers	Top	38-26	Win	110	20 h 32 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Minnesota as they travel to Green Bay set to start at 4:15 EST. I
10-31-09	South Carolina v. Tennessee -6	Top	13-31	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face South Carolina set to start at 7:45 EST and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 86% probability that Tennessee will win this game by 7 or more points. I had Tennessee last week as they came so ever close to defeating number 2 tanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa. I am not surprised at all that the AiS would identity this matchup as an even stronger money making opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-4 against the money line for 85% winners making 21.9 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line that is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing a good passing defense allowing 130-175 PYPG and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Yes, this is a money line system, but the average play has been a +112.6 DOG under scoring the validity of this system. AiS shows a 96% probability that Tennessee will score 28 or more points and has a 92% probability of out gaining SC by 100 to 150 total yards. Tennessee is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. SC is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. SC also an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Take the Volunteers.
10-31-09	Cincinnati v. Syracuse +16	Top	28-7	Loss	-110	12 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Syracuse as they face Cincinnati set to start at High Noon. This could be one of those upset specials that no one is looking to occur. The AiS shows an 85% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 for 79% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs in conference games of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second system that has produced a mark of 37-11 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins after the first month of the season. Here is a third system that has gone 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and are excellent defensive teams allowing <=16 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 after 7+ games and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Syracuse is further supported by a series of game dependent angles. Note that they are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992; 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992. If you get 6 to 1 or better on the money line it would be a smart wager to add no more than 1.5 units to this 10* Titan play. Take Syracuse.
10-30-09	West Virginia v. South Florida +3	Top	19-30	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on South Florida as they host West Virginia set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 80% probability that South Florida will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability that they may win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-22 making 50.6 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Here is a 2nd awesome money line system that has hit 78% winners for a 21-6 record and has made 17.2 units in profits. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game and with 5 offensive starters returning. SF ranks first in the conference in pass defense and that is what will make things very difficult for WVU. The Mountaineers like to run the ball when they are extremely poor in executing pass plays. So, look for SF to play a
10-27-09	East Carolina v. Memphis +4	Top	38-19	Loss	-100	9 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Memphis as they host East Carolina set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-35 for 67% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and is a team winning between 25% to 40% of their games playing a team with a winning record. Despite memphis having a losing record, ECU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Also supporting this graded play is a strong MONEY LINE SYSTEM that has gone just 40-47 for 46% winners, but has made a whopping 48 units since 1992. Play against road favorites versus the money line with an average defensive team allowing 21 to 28 PPG facing a below average defensive team allowing 28-34 PPG and after scoring 37 points or more last game. The average play for this game has been a +237 dog. So, this is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $2.37 for every winning $1.00 hand played. That would never happen in any casino, but this system has produced very REAL results. Despite their contrasting records these are two near equal teams. They both will run a balanced offensive attacks. The big difference is that the Memphis defense matches up very well and they will be the reason that Memphis can pull off a possible upset win. Memphis has played a tougher schedule as well having played the 2 top teams in the division in Marshall and Southern Miss. Memphis is a lot better than their record indicates. Take Memphis.
10-26-09	Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9	Top	27-17	Loss	-119	7 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they face the Eagles set to start at 8:00 EST on Monday Night Football. AiS shows an 84% probability that Washington will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points scoring <=14 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 18-23 PPG and after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. Here is a great MONEY LINE system that has gone 37-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2004. Play on home teams versus the money line off a home loss in the first half of the season. One of the keys here for this game is that Washington does have the personnel to protect Campbell even in blitz situations. Keep an eye on FB Sellers as he will be responsible for picking up blitzing LB or safeties. He did a very poor job early on, but has steadily improved. The Eagles blitz scheme has become quite predictable + they have a tendency to show where it is coming from with more than 10 seconds left on the play clock. All that is needed is for the blitz to be contained for an extra second and Campbell will have solid play opportunities over the middle. On the other side of the ball, the Washington defense will gamble with the blitz after seeing how successful it was when Oakland defeated the Eagles. Even if they don
10-25-09	Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys -4	Top	21-37	Win	100	6 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Dallas they face Atlanta set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows a 88% probability that Dallas will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 84-19 making 44.1 units since 1983. Play against dogs of +140 to +325 versus the money line that are scoring 24 or more points/game and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Dallas is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games versus poor rushing teams averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. With the BYE week Dallas was able to get several key players back to near 100%. WR Roy Williams is expected in the lineup as well as RB Felix Jones. Marion Barber had an excellent week of practice at full speed. Dallas has a very strong offense led by a solid running game. Dallas leads the league in yards per play and 2nd in total yards gained. Their problem is that they rank 14th in scoring and that is because of errors
10-25-09	New York Jets v. Oakland Raiders +7	Top	38-0	Loss	-120	6 h 27 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oakland as they face the NY Jets set to start at 4:05 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Oakland will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. I had Oakland last week in their upset win over the Eagles and that type of win always spillovers to the following weeks. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are poor passing teams gaining between 5.3-5.9 PYA facing a horrible passing team gaining <=5.3 PYA after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 41-12 ATS for 77% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This system has gone 11-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons. The dominant reason Oakland won last week is that they totally disrupted the rhythm of the Eagles offense. They will do the same thing against a vastly inexperienced QB in Sanchez, who is fresh off a 5 interception game. Oakland normally employs a lot of man coverage, but last week they showed man and went into cover-2 schemes. This week, given the Jets running attack that ranks 2nd in the league, they will play more man coverage. This actually works to their strengths. Nnamdi Asmugha is arguably the best corner in the league and he will be matched up against Braylon Edwards. Also, the fact that WR Cotchery is not likely to play and if he would play will not be anywhere close to a 100%, enables the Raiders to also use a bracket scheme on Edwards. Buffalo used the bracket against Edwards last week and it worked extremely well. Take Oakland to roll again to another ATS winner.
10-25-09	Indianapolis Colts v. St. Louis Rams +14	Top	42-6	Loss	-115	114 h 43 m	Show
EDGE Article October 20, 2009 Indianapolis at St. Louis 1:00 EST Start I am on a big time roll in ALL SPORTS. NFL run now at 8-3 ATS for 10* and 15* releases. CFB churning out big profits with a 45-16-1 ATS for 74% winners. The NHL has started out very strongly sporting a 9-4 record with all of these plays DOGS. Join me each day for all of plays and you will see in detail how my research will make you big profits. For this game the Ai Simulator has a 3* grading on the Rams. I had a 7* winner on Oakland last week, who won SU as a 14.5 point dog over the Philadelphia Eagles and this play shapes in a very similar manner. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-10 making 27 units since 2004. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a <=25 win percentage and now playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 77-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. Colts come into this game gaining less than 99 yards in 2 straight games. Note that they are just 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. In fact, 4 of the last 5 games have seen the Colts have far less than 100, which once again makes them a 1 dimensional team this year. The Rams have enough on the defensive front to sustain I do believe that the Rams secondary will matchup quite well like the Raiders did last week against the Eagles. Granted, Manning is far superior QB than McNabb, but the same sort of situations exist in this game. The Rams have moved the ball quite well at times, but turnovers, fumbles, and penalties have negated scoring opportunities. In their 2 home games they are averaging 368 yards, which is far better than what they have done on the road. The Raiders played at home as well. Take St. Louis
10-24-09	Auburn +7.5 v. LSU	Top	10-31	Loss	-105	24 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Auburn as they face LSU set to start at 7:30 and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 88% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-6 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. LSU is in a series of poor situations that support Auburn and reinforce the AiS grading as well. Note that LSU is an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus good passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Miles is just 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. as the coach of LSU. The offensive line for LSU has been horrific allowing 11 sacks in the past 2 games against Florida and Georgia. The offense was miserable against Florida gaining the fewest total yards since playing against Arkansas in 2000. The offense had just 5 first downs on passing plays last week and QB Jefferson has not thrown a TD in 2 games. Take the Auburn Tigers.
10-24-09	Boston College +7.5 v. Notre Dame		16-20	Win	100	6 h 34 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Boston College over Notre Dame set to start at 3:30 on NBC TV. AiS shows a 76% probability that BC will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. This is one of those upset alerts for sure based on the AiS projections. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-9 for 78% winners since 1999. Play against a home team versus the money line off a cover where the team lost as a dog and is a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games and playing a team with a winning record. The average play has been a dog of +148. BC is a team that is well disciplined and is not going to defeat themselves. Note that ND is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams getting 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. Take Boston College.
10-24-09	Oklahoma -7.5 v. Kansas		35-13	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Oklahoma over Kansas set to start at 3:30 on ABC TV. AiS shows a 79% probability that OU will win this game by 8 or more points. Not often do you find a 3-3 team, on the road, and favored by 7 or more points to a team that it is ranked and posting a 5-1 record. Clearly, this reflects the injury to QB Bradford and the difficult schedule they have played to date. AiS also shows a 92% probability that OU will score 28 or more points in this game. OU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is just 22-74 ATS (-59.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Kansas running game will be poor today and the matchups overwhelmingly favor the OU defensive front dominating the LOS. Kansas is projected to get less than 100 yards in this game. Period. Note that Kansas is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards since 1992. Take OU.
10-24-09	Tennessee +14.5 v. Alabama	Top	10-12	Win	100	20 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face Alabama set to start at 3:30 EST and can be seen on CBS TV. AiS shows an 85% probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-10 for 69% winners with the average play an incredible +230 on the MONEY LINE. Play against a home team versus the money line that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 3 to 3.5 YPR after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Tennessee is lined at roughly 550 so an alternative wager is to add a 2* amount and play 9* on the line. That adds up to 11* total and reflects a solid risk/reward profile. AiS shows that Alabama will have between 300 and 350 total yards in this game. Note that Tennessee is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards since 1992. Tennessee is also a strong 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better since 1992; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. Tennessee is going to play a lot of zone defensive schemes and will add a man coverage situation with Evans cover Alabama WR Jones. Evans has exceptional size and is far more physical than Julio Jones has had to play against this season. Another key is that Tennessee is very fast to the ball and this will minimize Alabama
10-24-09	Illinois +11 v. Purdue		14-24	Win	100	2 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Illinois over Purdue set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Illinois will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Illinois will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. Illinois is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 16-14 for 52% winners against the money line and has made a whopping 43.8 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line that is a bad team outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. The average play has been a +362 dog.
10-23-09	Rutgers Scarlet Knights -10.5 v. Army Black Knights	Top	27-10	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Rutgers as they face Army set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-8 for 75% winners since 2004. Play against a home team versus the money line with a poor offense averaging 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 3 consecutive games. Yes, money line system that supports the grading by the AiS. AiS shows an 77% probability that Rutgers will win this game by 11 or more points and also has an 88% probability of out gaining Army by 150 to 200 total yards. Note that Rutgers is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards since 1992. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Rutgers will score more than 28 points. Note that Rutgers is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Army is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons; 28-64 ATS (-42.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Rutgers.
10-22-09	Florida State v. North Carolina -2.5	Top	30-27	Loss	-115	8 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on North Carolina as they host FSU set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that UNC will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a strong proven system hitting 82% winners for a 36-8 ATS record since 1999 Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Here is a 2nd strong system that has gone 72-32 for 69% ATS winners since 1992. Play Against - A road team (FLORIDA ST) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Play against a road team after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. AiS also shows an 88% probability that UNC will score 28 or more points and also gain more than 9 yards per pass attempt. Note that UNC is a solid 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take UNC
10-21-09	Tulsa v. Texas-El Paso +9	Top	24-28	Win	100	7 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Texas El Paso as they host Tulsa in Thursday night action set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that TEP will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-35 making 31.5 units since 2004 for 67% winners. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and has won just 25% to 40% of their games playing a team with a winning record. This is perhaps Texas El Paso
10-18-09	Chicago Bears +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons	Top	14-21	Loss	-106	10 h 32 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Chicago as they face Atlanta on Sunday Night Football set to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that the Bears will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-5 for 82% winners on the MONEY LINE since 1999. Play on any team versus the money line after beating the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game and is a team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 42-14 on the money line making 24.5 units since 1999. Play on any team versus the money line that is outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 20-6 making 15.4 units on the money line since 1999. Play on any team versus the money line after a cover as a double digit favorite and is a top-level team winning >=75% of their games playing a team with a winning record. Atlanta is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992. The Bears defense ranks 9th in the NFL and they will be able to contain Atlanta
10-18-09	Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders +15	Top	9-13	Win	100	27 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Oakland as they face the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 4:05 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Oakland will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-10 ATS for 79% winners since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% or their games playing a team with a winning record. Here is a second amazing system that has spanned 27 years and posted a 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners. Play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. Ok, Eagles rank 2nd in the league in scoring, but honestly now, who have they played? They have faced Carolina, New Orleans, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. These teams combine for a 5-13 record and 4 of those wins are attributed to the undefeated Saints. KC is dead last in total defense; TB ranks 26th; Carolina 15th; and again the only team that has a strong defense has been the Saints, who rank 6th. The Eagles defense was torched by the Saints offense. The Raiders are playing poor football, but they have played a far more difficult schedule to date than the Eagles. A key for the Raiders defense is to keep Eagle TE Celek covered on all plays either by SS Branch or OLB Howard. He has been the catalyst for the rest of the passing game. Once he gets a few receptions it forces defenses to change schemes and play more man coverage. If the Raiders contain him early it forces the Eagles into using play action pass as a decoy and any defense in the NFL responds well to that situation. No doubt the Eagles will bring pressure often, but Russell has a great target in hot reads in TE Zach Miller. The Raiders could execute high percentage pass plays via slants or even TE screens to burn the Eagles nickel blitz and force them to scale back to a more conservative approach. Take the Raiders.
10-18-09	Kansas City Chiefs v. Washington Redskins -6	Top	14-6	Loss	-110	24 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Washington as they host Kansas City set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Washington will win this game by 7 or more points. Redskins desperately need a win for the HC. Media in DC and really nationally too have been all over Zorn and his job security is certainly on the line for this game. I believe that he has not lost his team and that they will win this game big and that is based on the AiS projections that give no consideration whatsoever to media hype and misinformation. The Redskins OL is banged up in a big way with one starter moving from RT to the left side and 2 back-ups making starts. Still, the pass protection has been a steady problem for Washington and the added fresh blood may be just what it takes to get QB Campbell that 1 extra second he needs to complete passes downfield. I also think they have used play action pass far too often and in situations where there was no way the defense would be apt to bite on the run fake. So, look for 3 step drops and far fewer play action pass plays
10-18-09	Cleveland Browns +15 v. Pittsburgh Steelers	Top	14-27	Win	100	24 h 7 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Browns as they face the Steelers set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that the Browns will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-8 for 78% winners since 1983. Play against any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a marginal winning team winning 51% to 60% of their games playing a team winning <=25% of their games. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Steelers will gain between 100 and 125 rushing yards. Over the past 3 seasons in games where this rushing total has occurred Cleveland is 8-2 ATS. Browns defense is coming together in a big way and have bought into new DC Ryan
10-17-09	Washington v. Arizona State -6	Top	17-24	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Arizona State as they host Washington set to start at 10:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less. AiS shows a 90% probability that Washington will not gain more than 300 total yards and an 86% probability that they will gain between 250 and 300 total yards. Note that Washington is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 total yards since 1992. Washington is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage of 51% to 60% since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take Arizona State.
10-17-09	San Jose State +20 v. Fresno State	Top	21-41	Push	0	24 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on San Jose State as they face Fresno State set to start at 10:00 EST. Also, if available, place a 1 unit amount on the money line at +875 or higher. AIS shows an 80% probability that SJST will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-38 against the money line, BUT has made a whopping 84.2 units since 2004. Play against home favorites of -425 or higher versus the money line after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The current line for this money line game is +875 and higher at most sports books. Over my 16-year career, I have had many amazing upsets
10-17-09	Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +3.5	Top	23-28	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Georgia Tech as they host Virginia Tech set to start at 6:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that G-tech will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-5 ATS for 85% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. AiS also shows a 93% probability that G-tech will gain 250 to 300 yards rushing and since 1992 they are 15-1 ATS in games where they have achieved this range of rushing yards. AiS also shows a 92% probability that G-tech will score 28 or more points. Note that V-tech is just 9-35 ATS (-29.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. G-tech is a solid 58-18 ATS (+38.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. GT head coach Johnson is a solid big game coach noting that he is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992. GT runs the spread option and this requires tremendous discipline form the defensive front 7 and linebackers. One of the best things that QB Josh Nesbitt does is to be very patient to wait for his OL to make the assigned block and then read what is next for the play. Also, look for them to run at first-year starters ILBs Barquell Rivers and Jake Johnson, who have yet to face a true option attack this year. B-back Dwyer is a strong downhill runner and the V-tech linebackers and DBs cannot react to quickly to pursuit otherwise a quick pitch to A-backs Jones, Peeples, or Allen will result in a score. I just don
10-17-09	Rice +18.5 v. East Carolina	Top	13-49	Loss	-105	17 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Rice as they face East Carolina set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Rice will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Also, place an optional 1 unit wager on the money line if available. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-23 making 31.7 units since 1999. Play on road dogs after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is winless on the season. Let
10-17-09	Northwestern +14 v. Michigan State	Top	14-24	Win	100	14 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Northwestern as they face Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. Also, if available a 1 unit optional play on the money line if available.AiS shows an 80% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 99-42 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Also, the same money line system mentioned in the San Jose State game is also valid for this game as well. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Michigan State will rush for 100 to 150 rushing yards. Note that Northwestern is a solid 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. Take NW.
10-17-09	Oklahoma +3.5 v. Texas	Top	13-16	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma as they face Texas set to start at High Noon in Dallas. AiS shows an 84% probability that Oklahoma will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Much has been said in the media about the QBs and offenses, but based on my research it will be the Sooner defense that dominates this game. Sooners are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons; Texas just 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. HC Mack Brown a sour 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 during his reign at Texas. For those of you who like the money line I would not add more than a 2.5* unit on the ML as an optional wager. Supporting this opportunity as well as the 10* play is an AiS projection calling for a 92% probability that Oklahoma will have between 250 and 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that Oklahoma is 16-2 against the money line (+14.4 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992.
10-16-09	Pittsburgh -5.5 v. Rutgers	Top	24-17	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Pittsburgh as they face Rutgers set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN. AiS shows an 80% probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-36 on the MONEY LINE, but has made a whopping 53.6 units. The average play for this system has been a dog of +242. So, this is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and being paid $2.42 for every winning $1.00 hand played. Play on a road team versus the money line after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 33-9 on the money line for 79% winners since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite and is a top-level team winning >= 80% of their games playing a team winning 60% to 80% of their games. Rutgers is in a series of weak roles for this noting they are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992; 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. Pittsburgh HC Dave Wannstedt is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games in October games while at the helm of this team. Take Pittsburgh.
10-14-09	Boise St v. Tulsa +9.5	Top	28-21	Win	100	9 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Tulsa as they host Boise State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Tulsa will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. This is going to be a big test for Boise State and a game that I see them quite possibly losing based on the AiS grading and summary projections. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-10 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games and with an inexperienced QB as starter. This system reflects a solid defense that supports a developing QB that many times is vastly under rated by the betting public. This system has also gone 12-3 for 80% winners over the past 3 seasons. Boise
10-13-09	Arkansas St. v. Louisiana Monroe -2	Top	10-16	Win	100	8 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on LA-Monroe as they host Arkansas State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that La-Monroe will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-22 ATS for 72% winners since 2004. Play against home favorites off a win against a conference rival and is winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Monroe is off a solid win against Florida International by the score of 48-35 and covered the 6.5 point spread as well. This team opened the season against Texas and managed to cover the generous 42.5 point number, but more importantly they scored 20 points and gained 298 yards on offense. Monroe has significant matchup advantages on the LOS, especially with their defensive line. I do not see Arkansas State being successful running the ball. State has had just 150 yards in their last 2 games gaining just 70 against Troy and 80 against Iowa. Iowa
10-12-09	New York Jets v. Miami Dolphins +3.5	Top	27-31	Win	100	9 h 45 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they host the NY Jets set to start on Monday Night Football. AiS shows an 84% probability that Miami will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and also has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 102-50 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is winning <=25% of their games playing a team with a winning record. Tweaking this system to
10-11-09	Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +4.5	Top	31-9	Loss	-120	23 h 23 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Tennessee as they face the Colts set to start on Sunday night Football at 8:20 EST. AiS shows a 76% probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs or pick after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a poor team winning <=25% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. 46% of these games have covered the spread by 7 or more points and that brings into the real possibility of a SU Tennessee win. Tennessee is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992. AiS shows an 88% probability that Tennessee will gain between 5 and 5.5 yards per play and when this occurs in past games they are a perfect 7-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons and 37-9 ATS since 1992. Take Tennessee.
10-11-09	Atlanta Falcons v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5	Top	45-10	Loss	-109	19 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on San Francisco as they face Atlanta set to start at 4:05 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that SF will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-5 ATS for 84% winners since 1983. This system ahs produced a 2-0 ATS mark over the past 3 seasons, 3-0 ATS over the past 5 seasons and 8-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Play against any team that is an average offensive team gaining 4.9 to 5.4 YPP facing a team with a good defense allowing 4.5 to 4.9 YPP and after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. SF is on a 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. SF QB Shaun Hill has managed the offense very well. He is making solid decisions and has thrown just 1 interception and 5 TD
10-11-09	Minnesota v. St Louis +11	Top	38-10	Loss	-105	17 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on St. Louis as they host Minnesota set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that St. Louis will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-8 ATS for 82% winners since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=25% playing a team with a winning record. Minnesota is in a weak role for this game noting they are an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992. They are also 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in road games after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The Rams are certainly a struggling team, but this is the beginning of what I call the parity factor
10-10-09	Michigan v. Iowa -8	Top	28-30	Loss	-105	23 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Iowa as they face Michigan set to start on ABC TV 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 88% probability that Iowa will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-4 for 89% winners since 1999. This system also underscores the projections produced by the AiS so even though it is a money line system it is quite valid. Play against road dogs versus the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 80% of their games. The Iowa defense and specifically the secondary will dominate Michigan
10-10-09	TCU -10 v. Air Force	Top	20-17	Loss	-110	23 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on TCU as they face Air Force set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that TCU will win this game by 10 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that TCU will out gain Air Force by a minimum of 2.0 YPP. TCU is 31-3 ATS (+27.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. 92 % probability that Air Force will not get 150 or more net passing yards. TCU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. 88% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points. TCU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. 88% probability that Air Force will not score more than 14 points in this game. Note that AF is just 4-29 ATS (-27.9 Units) when they score 14 or less points since 1992 and TCU 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they allow 14 or less points over the last 3 seasons. AF is also a weak 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Take TCU.
10-10-09	Oregon Ducks v. UCLA Bruins +3.5		24-10	Loss	-105	19 h 33 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on UCLA as they host Oregon set to start at 3:30 EST. The biggest factor in this game is that the UCLA offense is significantly improving each week and they have returned 9 starters including their QB from the 2008 team. AiS shows a 77% probability that UCLA will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 75-34 for 69% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. UCLA has a solid tradition of playing the best teams well. They are 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992; 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a home underdog since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA.
10-10-09	Georgia v. Tennessee -1		19-45	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Tennessee as they host Georgia set to start at 12:20 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Tennessee will win this game by 3 or more points. The Tennessee running game will be in strong form based on the AiS projections calling for an 87% probability that they will gain 200 to 250 rushing yards. Note that Tennessee is a solid 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 99-53 ATS for 65% winners since 2004. Play on a home team that is a bad team sporting a win percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record, in conference games. In last week
10-09-09	Louisiana Tech +10.5 v. Nevada Reno	Top	14-37	Loss	-105	11 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they face Nevada set to start at 9:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN and ESPN360. AiS shows an 82% probability that L-tech will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 86% probability that L-tech will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that L-tech is a solid 43-15 ATS (+26.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; Nevada is just 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 45-39 against the Money Line with the average play being a +218.4 dog and making a whopping 59.3 units in profits since 1992. Play against home favorites versus the money line and is a turnover prone team yielding 2.5+ TOPG facing a mistake-free team yielding <=1.25 TOPG. Can you imagine playing Black Jack and getting paid $2.18 for every winning $1.00 hand played? Well, that is exactly what this system has done since 1992. The L-tech defense is playing very well and is vastly under rated. They held Hawaii to negative 7 yards rushing and recorded 7 sacks. Nevada has a strong running game, but based on matchups, L-tech will contain that rushing attack and force Nevada to pass more than would like to do in this game. Moreover, Nevada has had 11 fumbles and lost 10 of them already in just 4 games. L-tech has had just 4 fumbles and lost 2 of them. L-tech ranks 13th and Nevada 120th in turnover margin nationally. Take L-tech.
10-08-09	Nebraska v. Missouri +3.5	Top	27-12	Loss	-105	13 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Missouri as the host Nebraska in the Big-12 opener for both teams. AiS shows an 82% probability that Missouri will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-9 for 84% winners since 2004 and the average play has been a +113 dog. Play against a road team versus the money line after playing a game at home and then playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 47-32 on the money line and has made 42.5 units since 1992. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win by 17 points or more and with the game taking place on Thursday. Here is the third system that has posted a 25-14 making 37.1 units since 1992. Play against a road team versus the money line that is off a home blowout win by 28 points or more when playing on a Thursday. The average play on this system has been a dog of +206. Amazing yes. So, do yourself a favor and write these down and do a little homework to take advantage of additional winners as the season moves on. Nebraska defense is much improved, ranking first in points allowed nationally, but it is against inferior competition. Even in the game against V-tech which was another graded winner, Nebraska caught V-tech flat. Missouri is led by a strong passing attack that resembles the one from last season led by Heisman contender Daniels last year. The QB now is Gabbert and he has thrown for 1161 yards, 11 TD
10-06-09	Middle Tenn St v. Troy -4.5	Top	7-31	Win	100	31 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Troy University as they host Middle Tennessee State set to start Tuesday at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Troy will win this game by 5 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Troy will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that when Troy scores 28 or more points in a game they are a strong 21-6 since 1992. When MTST allows 28 or more points they are a weak 19-34 ATS. Troy is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Troy defeated Arkansas State as a 3 point dog in their last game, but did have 3 turnovers. In their second game of the year Troy had 3 turnovers in a loss at Florida. In the next game they defeated a pretty darn good UAB team 27-14 and covered the 6.5 point number. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-10 on the money line for 73% winners since 2003. Play against a road team versus the money line with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game and after a game where they committed no turnovers. MTST had no turnovers in their win over North Texas last game while forcing 5 turnovers. In the previous game to that one, MTST forced 4 turnovers and had 3 of their own in a heroic last second FG win over Maryland. Troy will be able to run the ball well and this will set-up easy play action pass plays. The strong running game will keep turnovers to a bare minimum and I would not be surprised to see Troy play turnover free. Take the Trojans.
10-05-09	Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings -4.5	Top	23-30	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Minnesota as they host Green Bay set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Minnesota will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-17 for 71% winners since 1999. Play against any team with a turnover margin of +2 /game or better on the season. Here is a very nice money line system that has gone 62-14 making 37.6 units since 2004 for 82% winners. Play on home favorites versus the money line after playing a game at home in the first half of the season. Minnesota is a solid 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games after a win by 6 or less points since 1992. Biggest advantage that the Vikings have in this game is that their defensive line will completely dominate the Packers OL. Packers LT Clifton has a sprained ankle and may not even play. Even if he does, he will be going up against DE Jared Allen and you can
10-04-09	New York Jets v. New Orleans Saints -7	Top	10-24	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the New Orleans Saints as they host the upstart NY Jets set to start at 4:05 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that NO will win this game by 8 or more points. For those interested in the money line the price is not that bad considering the AiS shows a 95% probability that the Saints will win the game. I would suggest an alternative wager splitting the 10* amount into two parts with a 7* on the line and a 3* on the money line. There is a very impressive money line system that supports the AiS grading and has gone 31-6 for 84% winners since 2004. Play on any team versus the money line after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games facing an opponent after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. The Saints running game, contrary as it might be, will be the dominate factor in this game. The Jets defense must defend the passing attack first and then adjust to the run. This will set-up very easy safety reads in cover 1,2, or 3 schemes for Brees to exploit using an audible at the LOS. The AiS also has a 5* grading on the first half line looking for NO to get out to a very fast start. Supporting this play is a system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line that are teams scoring 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points. Saints have scored on the first drive of each game this season and have never trailed in any of the 3 games.
10-04-09	Seattle Seahawks +11 v. Indianapolis Colts		17-34	Loss	-115	14 h 51 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Seattle as they face Indianapolis set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 81% probability that Seattle will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Colts are not winning convincingly and are nearly 100% relying on Manning. The result is lack of ball control and this plays right into the strengths of the Seahawks. Note that Seattle is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Colts are just 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. I expect the Colts to be flat having come off back to back road games that were also featured nationally and now facing an
10-04-09	Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3	Top	17-37	Win	100	14 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Jacksonville as they host Tennessee set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 47-16 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Here is a 2nd system that has produced a record of 21-8 playing the MONEY LINE since 2003. Play on home teams versus the money line with a terrible passing D allowing 255 or more passing yards/game and after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 22-7 making 17.1 units since 2004 on the MONEY LINE. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 off 1 or more straight overs and is a slow starting team being outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half. JAX is a solid 16-4 against the money line (+16.1 Units) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992. I had JAX last week as a 15* Titan Dog play and the same fundamental reasons that applied to that game are valid as outlined for this game. A new factor I saw last week was that Jax actually used an unbalanced line and that enabled them to accomplish two major things in that game. It contained DE Mario Williams and also enabled them to run the ball effectively. Implementing these strategies makes it nearly impossible for defensive coordinators to truly plan any definitive scheme. Jax is a team on the move and with a win here they could easily be at 4-2 entering their BYE week. After this game they travel to Seattle and then p[lay a very poor St. Louis Rams team. Take Jacksonville.
10-04-09	Baltimore Ravens +2 v. New England Patriots	Top	21-27	Loss	-115	14 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Baltimore as they face New England set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Baltimore will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners since 2004. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season and after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after outgaining opponents by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a win by 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The biggest factor for this game is that the Ravens can simply set up in the I formation and pound the ball between the tackles. This in turn sets up their best plays with the play action pass. Based on the LOS matchups Baltimore will control both sides and as a result will control the tempo, the clock, and field position throughout. Take the Ravens.
10-03-09	USC -4 v. California	Top	30-3	Win	100	22 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Southern California as they face California set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 19-10 making 51.4 units since 2003. Play on a road team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Here is a second money line system that under sores the strength of the AiS grading and has produced a mark of 46-1 for an incredible 98% winners since 2004. Play on road favorites versus the money line after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 37-11 for 77% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PYPG after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. HC Carroll is a solid 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry. Take the Trojans.
10-03-09	LSU v. Georgia -3	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	6 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Georgia as they host LSU set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Georgia will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 68-33 ATS for 67% winners over the past 5 seasons. Play on any team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Georgia is going to have a field day offensively based on the AiS projections. AiS shows a 90% probability that Georgia will have between 450 and 500 total yards; 86% probability that they will gain 6.5 YPP or more; 85% probability they will outgain LSU by 200 or more yards; 88% probability they will score between 35 and 42 points inclusive. Note that LSU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992. Georgia is an impressive 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992. LSU just not in a good spot here and further hurt by previous poor games against strong opponents. LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Tigers are also just 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. LSU HC Miles is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better during his LSU tenure. Take the Georgia Bulldogs.
10-03-09	Alabama v. Kentucky +16		38-20	Loss	-104	14 h 15 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Kentucky as they face Alabama at Noon EST. AiS shows an 81% probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 making 70% winners since 2003. Play against a road team with an incredible offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play and after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Alabama is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. HC Brooks is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus excellent ball control teams getting 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Kentucky as they face Alabama at Noon EST. AiS shows an 81% probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 making 70% winners since 2003. Play against a road team with an incredible offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play and after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Alabama is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. HC Brooks is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus excellent ball control teams getting 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
10-03-09	Michigan v. Michigan State -3		20-26	Win	100	14 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Michigan State as they host Michigan set to start at 12:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that MSU will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-11 ATS for 76% winners since 1999. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game and after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Michigan has an 88% probability of not scoring more than 21 points in this game. Note that they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Michigan in a more difficult situations for this game noting they are 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992; 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Take Michigan State.
10-03-09	Tulane +6 v. Army	Top	17-16	Win	100	14 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Tulane as they face Army set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 19-10 making 51.4 units since 2004. Over the past 3 seasons it has produced an amazing 12-5 mark making 33.3 units in profits. The average play has been a +322 dog! Play on a road team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Army will not score more than 28 points. Note that Tulane is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Take Tulane.
10-02-09	Utah St. +24 v. BYU	Top	17-35	Win	100	10 h 40 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Utah State as the face BYU set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Utah State will lose this game by 21 or fewer points. Utah State returns 9 starters and their QB on offense and that will be significant advantage for them in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-7 ATS over the past 10 seasons for 81% winners. Play against a home team after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is a good team hitting 60% to 80% playing a team with a losing record. This system has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons and an impeccable 17-2 ATS over the past 5 seasons. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Utah State will score 28 or more points. Note that Utah State is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take Utah State. Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER BYU/Utah State. AiS shows a 79% probability that 65 or more points will be scored in this game. BYU HC Mendenhall is a solid 22-12 OVER (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest; 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games.
09-30-09	Hawaii +4.5 v. Louisiana Tech	Top	6-27	Loss	-100	10 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Hawaii as they face Louisiana Tech set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Hawaii will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 59% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-6 on the MONEY LINE making 35.4 units since 2003. Play on a road team versus the money line that is gaining >=6.2 YPP and now facing a team with a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. AiS shows a 90% probability that Hawaii will score a minimum of 28 points. Note that over the last 2 seasons Hawaii is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when scoring 28 or more points. Taking a portion of the system above we see that Tech is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. L-tech is also coming off a BYE week, which has not served them well noting they are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992. Granted, the stats may be padded against week competition, but Hawaii
09-28-09	Carolina Panthers v. Dallas Cowboys -8.5	Top	7-21	Win	100	11 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Dallas they host Carolina set to start at 8:00 EST on Monday Night Football. AiS shows an 84% probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points. Dallas has been largely inconsistent on both sides of the ball during their first 2 games. It all started with Romo in game 1 posting his 4th best passer rating of his career. He followed that up with his worst effort, a 29.1 passer rating, against the NY Giants. Dallas is in a favorable situation given that they turned the ball over 4 times in last week
09-27-09	New York Giants -6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Top	24-0	Win	100	17 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on the NY Giants as they face Tampa Bay set to start at 1:00 EST Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has gone an amazing 29-1 since 1983 with an average play of -130. It is a perfect 14-0 over the past 10 years. Play against dogs versus the money line after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games facing an opponent after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 89-42 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against home teams off a road loss in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Giants are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The biggest mismatch is with Giants WR Steve Smith going up against Ronde Barber and the TB secondary. All the experience in the world is not going to help Barber consistently defend Smith. Take the Giants.
09-27-09	Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Houston Texans	Top	31-24	Win	100	17 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Jacksonville as they face Houston set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 57% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-29 for 69% winners since 1983. Play on road teams after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Jacksonville has a 90% probability of scoring 22 to 28 points inclusive. Note that Jax is a solid 48-17 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points since 1992. Houston is 7-22 ATS when they allow 22 to 28 points in a game. I
09-26-09	Iowa v. Penn St. -9	Top	21-10	Loss	-110	9 h 1 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Penn State as they host Iowa set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ABC. AiS shows an 83% probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Revenge is talked about in this game, but will have just a minimal impact on this game. PSU is even more dominant, especially in the skill positions, matching up against Iowa this turn around. This dominance starts on the LOS and there is NO doubt that Iowa will have a very tough time running the ball. Note that Iowa is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses allowing <=2.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Granted, the caliber of play, the Lions have faced has been weak, but the athletes they have will play even better against the best competition. Paterno is a solid 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Iowa may have taken any opening drive opportunities to throw the ball in this game when last week against Arizona they threw on 5 of the first 6 plays. Again, even with the injuries to LB starters and the fact that at least 1 of them will not play tonight, the 2nd string is very good in their own right. However, it would mark the first time that standout OLB Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee would start and finish a game together. This simply underscores the strength of the AiS grading and the projection that Iowa will not be consistently effective on offense. PSU did not get the nickname Linebacker U because of a great OL. Iowa has a very good freshman RB in Adam Robinson, who at 5
09-26-09	Arizona +3 v. Oregon State	Top	37-32	Win	100	23 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Arizona as they travel to face oregon State in their Pac-10 opener set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 79$ probability that Arizona will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game SU. Magic number for this game is 28 points. AiS shows an 87% probability that Arizona will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Arizona is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points since 1992. Moreover, Oregon State is just 22-54 ATS (-37.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Arizona HC Stoops is a solid 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Oregon State HC Riley is a weak 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in the first month of the season. Take Arizona.
09-26-09	Boise St v. Bowling Green +17	Top	49-14	Loss	-110	22 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Bowling Green as they face Boise State set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Bowling Green will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 64-29 for 69% winners since 2003. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and is a bad team sporting a win percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record. Bowling Green is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992. Nothing worse in CFB then being favored and losing the game SU. BG lost to Marshall 17-10 and were installed as 3 point favorites. Note that BG is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Bowling Green.
09-26-09	Illinois v. Ohio State -14	Top	0-30	Win	100	19 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Illinois as they face Ohio State set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Illinois will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Illinois offense has returned 8 starters including their QB and they will be equal to Ohio States' offensive unit. Ohio State will want to run the ball and will have more than twice as many running plays as passing. OSU will want to run the ball as well in order to keep turnovers to a minimum and to control the Top and tempo of the game. This actually can play into Illinois' strengths as they have several WR that match-up very well against the Ohio State secondary. This also reinforces the AiS grading for the UNDER play as well. Take Illinois. Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Illinois/Ohio State. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-17 UNDER since 1992. Play under with any team against the total after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games facing an opponent after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Ohio State is a solid 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half since 1992. Take the UNDER.
09-25-09	Missouri v. Nevada Reno +7	Top	31-21	Loss	-100	23 h 1 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada as they host Missouri set to start Thursday night at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Nevada will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Missouri is off a big win against a weak opponent in Furman last week and this places them in a very poor role for this game. Missouri is just 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. The tempo of this game based on the current total line fits Nevada's style of play quite well. Note that they are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Missouri HC Pinkel is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game as the coach of the Tigers. The biggest factor in this game is that Missouri's pass defense is not playing well at all and this against weak opponents. They have allowed 726 total passing yards against Illinois, Bowling Green, and Furman combined. Now, they face Nevada, who has played far tougher competition and runs a balanced offensive attack. Play action pass will work wonders for Nevada this week as Missouri must respect the run first. Another important factor is that Missouri returns just 5 starters on offense and only 4 on defense. Nevada returns 7 starters including the QB on offense and 7 more starters on defense. Playing on National TV and at home will make Nevada play above their potential and this may well be a significant upset. Take Nevada.
09-24-09	Mississippi v. South Carolina +4.5	Top	10-16	Win	100	21 h 27 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on South Carolina as they host number 5 ranked Mississippi set to start at 7:50 EST and will be seen on ESPN. AiS shows an 85% probability that South Carolina will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Also projects a 90% probability that Mississippi will gain 200 to 250 total net passing yards. Note that South Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Spurrier is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SC. The schedule has seasoned SC in its
09-21-09	Indianapolis Colts v. Miami Dolphins +4	Top	27-23	Push	0	10 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Miami as they host Indianapolis set to start at 8:00 EST on Monday Night Football. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 75-29 ATS since 1999. Play on home teams vs. the money line after a game where they forced no turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The Miami defense will be the reason the Dolphins win this game. Manning has only 1 WR in Reggie Wayne that he is familiar with and the other two are inexperienced. DE Taylor and Porter will put on tremendous pressure from the edges on Manning and force him to deliver the ball sooner. The lack of chemistry between Manning and second-year pass catcher Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie will be magnified by the pressure. Also, the Dolphins OL had a poor first week. The tackles did not engage their DE opponent soon enough in pass plays. This is something easy to fix even at the NFL level. HC Sparano even made mote of this poor play in his press conference. You will see the Colts' DE engaged much quicker after the snap allowing QB Pennington solid passing lanes as opposed to see the back of his offensive tackles. The LOS is always the battle that wins the large majority of NFL games and there is no doubt that Miami can and will control the LOS tonight. Take the Dolphins. Ai Simulator 5* graded play on UNDER in the First Half Line MNF Dolphis/Colts. AiS shows a 77% probability that 21 or fewer points will be scored in the first half of this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-6 UNDER since 1983. Play under with any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 in a game involving two teams who had good records posting a 60% to 75% win percentage from last season.
09-20-09	New York Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -3	Top	33-31	Loss	-100	22 h 33 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Dallas as they face the Giants set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Dallas will win this game by 4 or more points. Dallas is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Hc Philips ahs been the HC in all of these games as well. The media hype is all over this game given that it will be opening night and the largest crowd to see a NFL game in NFL history. Once the game starts that media hype is all minimized. Just look at what Tennessee was able to do with Florida yesterday. Dallas NT Jay Ratcliff will a dominant key for this game. The Giants will certainly try and run the ball with Jacobs, who has averaged 5.0 YPC and more than 1000 yards rushing in each of the last 2 seasons. Ratcliff will not be pushed back even if he is double teamed. This will be something to watch early in the game. Then watch Ware just man handle Diehl. Ware has a significant advantage in speed and power will dominate a technician like Diehl. Cowboys ran 60% of the time last season and had more running plays than passing in last week's game. Dallas' goal will be to rush for a MINIMUM of 24 plays. If they reach that goal it uncer scores the fact they would be controlling the LOS. Take Dallas.
09-20-09	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Chicago Bears +3	Top	14-17	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Chicago as they play Pittsburgh set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Chicago will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Chicago in several strong roles noting they are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. Steelers are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. Here is a supporting system that has gone an amazing 24-7 for 74% winners since 1992. Play against road teams versus the money line after a game here they committed 3 or more turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. One of the most dominating game factors is that the AiS shows a 92% probability that Pittsburgh will not gain more than 100 yards rushing the ball. Note that they are just 6-16 against the money line (-14.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards since 1992. Bears HC Smith is a solid 8-3 against the money line (+8.4 Units) off a loss against a division rival. The Bears have never won with Brian Urlacher out of the lineup do to injury going an imperfect 0-7. This was before Cutler showed up. Yes, he did have a poor start last week, but rarely has back to back poor starts. Defensive tackles Tommie Harris, Anthony Adams and Marcus Harrison have a matchup advantage on the LOS. They will get a significant up field push and this will be Roethlisberger from stepping up into the pocket where he is very accurate. When he can
09-19-09	Nebraska +6 v. Virginia Tech	Top	15-16	Win	100	7 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Nebraska as they visit V-Tech set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Nebraska will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Nebraska will be very successful on offense and there is a 92% probability that they will score 28 or more points. Note that Nebraska is a solid 87-39 ATS (+44.1 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Granted, the Nebraska defense has yet to truly tested, but so far they have played fantastic TEAM defense in their first two games. They matchup extremely well against V-tech as well. Keep in mind that V-tech offense executed quite poorly against Alabama and I actually could make a case that this Nebraska defense is even better. Take the Cornhuskers.
09-19-09	Duke v. Kansas -23.5	Top	16-44	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Kansas as they host Duke set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Kansas will win this game by 24 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1999. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points and is a dominant team outgaining opponent by 1.2+ YPP facing an average team +/- 0.6 YPP and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Her eis a 2nd system that has gone 78-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 55-23 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a home team that is a dominant team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG facing a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. AiS hsows an 88% probability that Kansas will gain 550 or more total yards. Note that Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 18-1 ATS (+16.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992. Duke is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards since 1992. Take Kansas
09-18-09	Boise St v. Fresno State +8	Top	51-34	Loss	-115	10 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Fresno State as they host Boise State set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-4 ATS for 88% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and had a winning record last season. Boise is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start winning in 2 home games against Oregon 19-8 and Miami(Ohio) 48-0. Fresno blew out Cal Davis 51-0 in a game that was not lined and lost a tough one at Wisconsin 34-31, but covered as 7.5 dog. Fresno State defense is a bit banged up, but they are extremely strong against the run. Boise running game has not been solid and consistent and there is no doubt in my mind that Fresno will control the LOS in this game. Fresno has some great athletes on this team that are vastly under rated. Keep an eye on WR Seyi Ajirotutu. He will be matched up against one of the best corners in the country in Kyle Wilson. Seyi Ajirotutu has a very significant advantage in size and strength and quickness to the ball. I fully expect Seyi Ajirotutu to have a huge night as Fresno will continue to use various formations to get him in man coverage. Take Fresno. Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER FSU/BSU. AiS shows a 76% probability that 53 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Boise is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. HC Peterson is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Boise; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. HC Hill is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of Fresno.
09-14-09	San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +10.5	Top	24-20	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Oakland
09-14-09	Buffalo Bills +12.5 v. New England Patriots	Top	24-25	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Buffalo as they face New England on MNF set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. It is certainly fact, that when Tom Brady last played a full season, the Patriots set numerous offensive records including yards gained in a season. Yet, no QB, has accomplished such lofty statistics coming off any significant knee surgery. The knee injury aside, the Bills would still emply a defensive scheme to pressure him as much as possible. This does not mean attempting to get sacks, but by getting pressure at specific sports in the pocket in significantly cuts down his throwing angles. The Bills have two very good DE in Aaron Schobel and 1st round draft pick Maybin. Schobel was out last season with a foot injury, but is 100% right now. The Bills also use a 4 man front and this alone may be enough to get quick pressure early in Brady

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