25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Seattle in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-23 mark good for 66% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (SEATTLE) after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. For this matchup, it clearly shows solid reasons to get on board the Buffalo Bills.

We use numerous statistical measures of efficiencies to identify opportunity. Buffalo ranks 8th in overall offensive efficiency. Seattle, as we saw in their 13 points scored against anemic Saints defense are not nearly as strong. Seattle ranks 18th in overall offensive efficiency and are trending downward in most offensive categories. Both teams have solid defenses with Buffalo given a slight edge with their front seven over Seattle.  Buffalo can definitely stop the Seattle ground attack and force Wilson to try then to move the chains with his arm. Seattle’s receivers have not been able to generate space on their routes and have created forced desperate throws by Wilson. Buffalo is the play. 

25* graded play on the LA Rams as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.2% winners. Play against road favorites (CAROLINA) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing less than 3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Fisher is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992 and he is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of the Rams. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games. Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina's offense can move with ease, although they've been set back by a league-worst 17 turnovers. Their revamped secondary has turned in a couple of dreadful performances ranking 29th in opponents pass yards/game (286.9). As good as the Panthers are on offense, they have their awful record because of two defensive stats: they allow their opponents more yards/play than their offense gains, and they allow more points/game than their offense scores. Yes, They'll stop the run this game, but so has everyone else against the Rams so it's not an advantage. Take LA Rams.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Detroit in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least 10 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-19 over the last 5 seasons good for 70.3% winners. Play on favorites (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 12-35 ATS (-26.5 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North. Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Armonty Bryant received a three-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy, so with the Lions will lose his production recording three sacks in four games. Vikings defense is permitting a league-low 14.9 points. Bradford is better in this situation, recording five touchdowns and zero interceptions in four home games. Stafford was sacked seven times in the last meeting by Minnesota, which swept the season series a year ago. Stafford may have his career high in passer rating, but he hasn't faced this defense yet this year. Take Minnesota Vikings.

50* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win the game and upset no.1 Alabama. Given this compelling projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. We never know when these dogs will win the game. What we do know is that if you we play these dogs as combination wagers it serves to add another 11% in total return to overall profitability spanning an entire season. Every season for the past 8 seasons, we have had a dog of greater than 17 points win the game outright. This year we had Kansas at 28 ½ against TCU and TCU needed a last-minute score to come away with a 1-point win. Although LSU is not a 17-point dog, it is one that certainly qualifies for the combination wager.

The key part of this combination wager is that we MUST have a money line => +140 for the ROI to be validated. If ever, you cannot get that line, simply play the dog on the line only.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Road favorites (ALABAMA) with an excellent rushing defense allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that supports LSU and has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (LSU) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Now onto the technical that match the SIM projections for the outcome of this game.

·       Alabama is just 10-28 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points.

·       Alabama is just 13-39 ATS (-29.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

·       Alabama is just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards.

·       LSU is a stout 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.

·       LSU is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt.

·       LSU is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Alabama rolls into Baton Rouge as the top team in the nation again and takes on a hot LSU Tiger team. The Tigers are 5-2 with both losses being on the road by a total of 7 points against Wisconsin and Auburn with a late TD being pulled off the board against Auburn. This should be another classic Alabama and LSU slugfest. Alabama Quarterback has struggled some in big games throwing at least one pick in each of the big games this year, but the Defense has bailed the offense out and the Tide eventually wore down the opponent. Both teams come off a bye and should be fresh in this one. Leonard Fournette is heating up lately and the Tiger ground game has been rolling Fournette is averaging 8 yards per carry and this should keep the Tigers defense off the field and have some legs late in this one. If LSU can keep the Bama defense from scoring this one should be a dog fight all afternoon. Geaux Tigers today.

Titan).

25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Nebraska in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game by at least 21 points. It is rare that you get the public enamored with a DOG, but they are with Nebraska. At first glance, it is natural to think a strong team like Nebraska is getting far too many points and think it is a gift. Only 22% of bets have been on OSU, BUT the line has moved 4.5 points higher. This clearly reflects numerous large bets made on Ohio State that more than offset the public’s irrational exuberance on Nebraska.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a strong 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards over the last three seasons.; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.; 132-44 ATS (+83.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play

Fundamental Discussion Points Ohio State -17 versus Nebraska

The Buckeyes come off a tough three-game stretch where they were in tight games each week; Nebraska took its first loss last week in Madison against the physical Badgers. We look for Nebraska to come into this one with a little hangover and the horseshoe is not the place for that. Look for the Buckeyes to get the train rolling again this week. JT Barrett comes into this one complete INC 64% of his passes for 272 yards per game, and we look for another strong effort from the Buckeye defense today. Nebraska has not had a signature win as of late, and we look for Tommy Armstrong and the Cornhusker Offense to struggle in Columbus today. Armstrong has 11 TD passes but seven picks to go with that. Ohio State has averaged over 42 points per game, and we look for more of the same as Brutus flexes his muscles today.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa in BIG TEN action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a money losing 19-61 ATS (-48.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; PSU is a stout 109-37 ATS (+68.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points After PSU’s recent rankings, many in the college football community believe they were over ranked, and the Penn State football team has a lot to prove this weekend. Coming off of wins the past four weeks, the PSU squad has a ton of momentum going into this game. Trace McSorley (55.2% completion percent, 12 TD, 3 Int) and Saquon Barkley (888 rush yds, ten rush TD, 213 receiving yds, 1 receiving TD) have been carrying the offense for the team, and will likely be a force again this week against Iowa. Iowa’s offense has been largely inconsistent throughout the year, and might put up a struggle to the PSU defense, but will likely not be able to overpower them. Lastly, the chemistry of the Penn State team gives them an added edge – another white out game under the lights at Beaver Stadium and a team that is clicking on all cylinders with its coach is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Expect PSU to continue their winning streak in this Big Ten action this week versus Iowa.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play on home favorites (USC) after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games, with five defensive starters returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last three seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points As defined and graded by the SIM we are back with the Trojans taking on Oregon this week. USC has the ground game going lately, and the Duck stop units haven't been seen lately. Oregon is giving up over 42 points per game and the Trojans bring a solid running game, and the passing game has been good as Darnold has completed67.4 % of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdown passes with only three picks on the year. USC has one of the top OL in the nation ranking 19th in our S&P style metrics this season. Note too that when playing against the better offenses Oregon has given up over 50 points per game, and we see more of that today as the Trojans take out some frustrations on the Ducks while they are down. Fight On tonight.

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on Navy in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Navy is just 20-43 ATS (-27.3 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play; 47-21 ATS (+23.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. ND is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points

This game will be played in Jacksonville and we look for more of what we seen from Navy last week as the Defense gave up 52 points. Notre Dame has too many skilled players and should move the ball with ease today. The strength of the Irish is the run defense which should help today and not put the pressure on the weak secondary. Navy throws for 147 per game but that requires the running game to help the passing game, ND secondary can match up against this class. ND typically wins this one with ease when laying the small number at neutral sites and struggles when laying the big numbers. Look for Deshone Keizer to have a big day with a lot of receivers running free today. The Irish should also be able to control the ground game in this one.

25* graded play on Colorado as they take on UCLA in Thursday PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game by at least 17 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season. UCLA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons. MacIntyre is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games as the coach of Colorado. Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Bruins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bruins are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points UCLA's Fafaul is coming off a wild, up-and-down outing Oct. 22 against Utah in which he threw for 464 yards and five touchdowns while also tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in a 52-45 home loss. Buffaloes have been particularly tough against opposing passers, notching 11 interceptions while allowing only eight aerial TDs behind a secondary featuring safety Tedric Thompson (Pac-12-most four interceptions) and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (Pac-12-most 13 passes defensed). The Buffaloes are getting it done on both sides of the ball, joining Alabama, Ohio State and Louisville as the only teams to rank in the top-20 nationally in total offense and defense at 19th and 12th, respectively. With this all-around strong team against a struggling UCLA, Take Colorado Buffaloes.

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in Thursday NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992 and they are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992. Atlanta is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Matt Ryan leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest). The Bucs won't have nearly the same offensive lineup they had around quarterback Jameis Winston in the first meeting. Doug Martin and Charles Sims, the team's top two running backs, are injured as is No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers (another running back), and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. This will be Atlanta Falcons' game.

25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in MNF action  set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-7 mark good for 86% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against struggling teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are good passing teams (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) and is now facing an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this game it clearly shows strong reasons to get on board the Bears tonight.

50* graded play on Dallas as they take on Philadelphia in a mammoth NFC showdown set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 164-89 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1983. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 30-62 ATS (-38.2 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards; Dallas is a stout 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points As the technical point out, the key to this win is the play of the Dallas OL, who have arguably put themselves into the discussion of best all-time. Although, much of the talk entering this game is on the solid play of two rookie QBs, it has been the Eagles defense that has led them to a 4-2 record. However, I do not see this Eagles defensive unit holding up for 60 minutes against the constant ground game pounding. The SIM projects that Dallas will have at least 160 rushing yards and this also control the clock and the pace of play. Also, Zak Prescott will have play action pass play opportunities where he can have a few extra seconds to scan the field. Beasley may ned up being a coverage nightmare for the Eagles, who will be forced to have their LB focused on the run first. This opens up quick hit slant routes in space. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on Green Bay as they take on Atlanta in NFC the action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game this game.   Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play against home teams (ATLANTA) after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GB is a stout 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points While the Packers’ offense may not be what it once was, Green Bay’s defense continues to impress, especially in the front-seven. First-round pick Kenny Clark is currently fourth in run-stop percentage among 3-4 DEs, veteran Mike Daniels is seventh in pass-rushing productivity among the same group, and former first-round pick Nick Perry is sixth in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 OLBs. I do believe the GB secondary will disguise coverages involving Julio Jones periodically creating the illusion that Jones is in an ‘under/over’ bracket coverage. I also believe GB will bring pressure more than in past games limiting the time for Ryan to connect with Jones on deep routes. Take Green Bay.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on New England in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by less than 5 points and have a chance to pull off the upset AGAIN. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-16 since 1983 (4-0 last 5 seasons) good for 73.8% winners and made 27.4 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-11 over the last 10 seasons good for 77% winners. Play Against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. Bills are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East. Bills are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Bills will get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus back to sure up their rushing defense their poor performance last week. Buffalo will look to play well over their level in their disappointing loss last week. I believe too much is being made on the Patriots revenge factor in this game. Rex Ryan coached teams have always given Brady a hard fight. The spread is too high and is climbing. Take the Buffalo Bills.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 3 seasons; 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 350 yards/game since 1992; 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 5.65 yards/play since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arians is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of Arizona. Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Cardinals are 21-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Panthers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona has the second-best defensive rating in the NFL by holding opponents to 289.6 yards per game. The Cardinals haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last two games. Carolina's offense has cranked out 371.5 yards per game for the fourth-best mark in the league. Panthers left tackle Michael Oher stayed in concussion protocol at the beginning of the week, so he may not play. Carolina hasn't been playing well at all and I don't think a bye week will help them. Take Arizona Cardinals.

25* graded play on Washington as they take on Utah in a critical PAC-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by more than 14 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS for an amazing 89% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (UTAH) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a solid 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Utah is a money losing 21-60 ATS (-45.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Huskies come into this one at 7-0 averaging 43 points per game and only giving up 14. However, the Utes are 7-1 and will be the best team the Huskies have faced this year. Last week UCLA was able to put up a lot of points and exposed the Utah defense. We look for Jake Browning to do more of the same today with plenty of weapons in the skull positions. Browning comes into this game with 26 TD passes and only 2 interceptions. The Huskies also have balance in offense bringing a solid running game averaging 227 yards per game. Washington also can match Utah physically and we don't see Utah keeping pace today and eventually wearing down an the Huskies to control this one and make another statement in the PAC 12. Take the Huskies and lay the points.

50* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 42* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Note that all of them are using the money line and reflect my strong belief that Texas wins SU. Baylor is just 25-79 against the money line (-71.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-13 against the money line (-13.1 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Texas is 31-3 against the money line (+31.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 30-4 against the money line (+26.4 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Baylor team has not really been tested this year, and this is a game that will show how great of a team that they really are. Also, Texas coach Charlie Strong is on the hot seat so far this season, so this is a perfect game for him to prove he can lead this team to victory. With both teams having a lot to prove, expect this game to be hard-fought and difficult. Texas seems to be doing well offensively this year, and expect a big performance from their running back D’onta Foreman this week. The Baylor defense has given up 200 rushing yards to Rice, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State so far this year, so definitely expect Foreman to have a great game. However, it would not be fair to not mention that Texas’ defense is also having trouble. They have allowed 200 rushing yards per game in 2/3 of the past games they have played, on top of struggling to defend the pass or come up with big turnovers. Despite their defensive struggles, I think Texas will capitalize on offense this week in a shootout with Baylor, and will ultimately emerge victorious.

25* graded play on Georgia as they take on Florida in SEC Cocktail action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-36 mark good for 46% winners and has made 57 units/unit wagered averaging a huge +300 DOG play since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites vs. the money line (FLORIDA) dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Georgia is a solid 18-5 against the money line (+12.4 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Going to the Cocktail Party today and using the Bulldogs of Georgia getting a little over a TD against Florida. Gators have controlled this one lately but we look for another slugfest in this one. Gators come into this one  at 5-1 and look to be headed to the SEC Championship game. The Gators bring a solid Defense into this game only allowing 12 points per game, but the offense has not been anything special. Georgia comes in with a 4-3 record with a strong running game and the best running back on the field with Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was brought here to win these type of games. After getting beat by Vandy at home the defensive minded Smart had two weeks to prepare for this one. Look for a lot of emotion from the Bulldogs today and keep this one a dogfight all day. In a dogfight we want UGA.

25* graded play on Missouri as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Missouri will win this game by at least 9 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is a money losing 44-96 ATS (-61.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 rushing yards per attempt; Missouri is a stout 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt; 105-33 ATS (+68.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 36-10 ATS (+25.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards;

Fundamental Discussion Points Kentucky comes into this game winning 3-of-4 and have covered all four ATS. Missouri has lost 3 straight and lost those games ATS as well. Kentucky’s rushing defense is not good period. Missouri runs the ball a ton. Tigers have gained 613 rushing yards in their last 2 games against Florida and Middle Tenn. State. Kentucky ranks 91st in the nation allowing 207 rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, we see that Kentucky, too, runs the ball and ranks 38th in the nation gaining 202 rushing yards per game. However, the Missouri defense is capable of containing that ground attack and forcing Kentucky to throw the ball to move the chains. Kentucky ranks a terrible 108th averaging 178 passing yards per game. Take the Missouri Tigers.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Purdue in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 20 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-25 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on road favorites (PENN ST) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 108-37 ATS (+67.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points; Purdue is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they allow 400 to 450 total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points. Penn State is coming off an incredible victory against Ohio State last weekend at home, and last week Purdue lost 14-27 to Nebraska. Penn State clearly has the momentum going into this game. Though Penn State offense has been struggling recently, this week they will get reignited against one of the most defenses in the Big Ten, Purdue. Whether it is offensively, defensively, special teams, or coaching, Penn State should win on all fronts. Penn State’s offense will have a field day this Saturday, as Barkley and McSorley will team up against a defense that is allowing on average 441 yards per game. Also, PSU special teams have been excellent recently, and were the reason they were able to upset Ohio State last week. Lastly, last weeks win was definitely huge for Coach Franklin of PSU. Many thought him to be on the hot seat for a while, but this game was huge for building team confidence around him, and this will show throughout the rest of the season.

25* graded play on USC as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 points or more.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CALIFORNIA) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has produced a 44-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a stout 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 118-58 ATS (+54.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Based on the predictive algorithms, USC is a Top-20 team and is playing extremely well right now. They are riding a strong three game win streak and easily defeated Arizona last week. They also knocked off a ranked Colorado team the week before. Cal’s defense is poor ranking 120th allowing 41.3 PPG and 121st allowing 5.7 rushing yards per game. The matchup advantage for USC is pounding the ball on the ground where they rank 33rd gaining 4.9 yards per rush. They have rushed for 501 yards on 86 carries in their last two wins. This has not only worn down a defensive line, but also opened up play action pass plays where USC’s elite receivers have been in man coverage. The same again tonight.

50* graded play on Houston as they take on Denver in MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 mark based on the money line good for 82% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 34-10 ATS (+23.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points. Denver is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The media is making far too much of the return of Osweiler and how GM Elway has had this game circled. Denver's C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Houston gains 4.1 yards per rush ranking 7 teams higher than Denver, while Denver is known for their defense they rank only 16th in allowing opponents yards per rush of 4.0. Houston also gets called by less penalties as they're ranked 4th in both penalties per game and per play. Denver is ranked 23rd and 25th respectively in those categories. Take Houston Texans to win.

25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Arizona in NFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons and they are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Arizona is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Arians is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 9 points or less last game as the coach of Arizona. Carroll is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Seattle. Seattle is 2-0 against the spread at Arizona over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against the division. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Seattle owns the league's No. 1 defense and is third in points (15.6) and rushing yards (74.6) allowed. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who has a passer rating of at least 121.9 in three of the last four meetings with the Cardinals, guided Seattle to a 36-6 rout at Arizona in the regular-season finale in January.  We like the Seahawks in this matchup, despite Palmer being back, we think Arizona still has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, a unit which led the league in scoring last year. Seahawks DE Cliff Avril has four sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games versus Arizona. Take Seattle Seahawks with the points.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-10 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Oakland comes into this game tied atop the division with the defending Super Bowl champions and takes on a Jacksonville team who has struggled this year. Black Jack Del Rio returns to Jacksonville with a playoff caliber team. Derek Carr has built on what he was able to last season and the Raiders have been able to move the ball and score on everyone so far this year. Blake Bortles and the Jaguar offense have struggled at times this year and really struggle in the running game. This would be the week to get going as the Raider defense has struggled this year. In Oakland’s 3 previous early start games this year the Raiders pulled out the victories. We see this game to be similar as Del Rio comes back to town to beat his old team today.

25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points.

How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins.

25* graded play on the Los Angeles Rams as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 9:30 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by less than 2 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Rams are 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992. Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Rams' passing attack was incredible against the Lions, and quarterback Case Keenum had a career day. Keenum threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns, and at one point he completed 19 straight passes.The Rams will keep that formula going against a Giants passing defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL and gives up an average of 266.8 yards per game. New York S Nat Behre (concussion) had to be removed from practice on Wednesday and remains in the league's protocol. OBJ suffered a hip pointer in the win over the Ravens and was able to return to the game, but he has been receiving treatment for the injury this week and sat out practice on Wednesday. Eli is a different quarterback when away from home. Take LA Rams with the points.

25* graded play on Arizona State as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game and may win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS good for 75% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) that is a struggling team outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ASU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when their defense allows 400 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points For this game we head out to the desert in Tempe, Arizona at Sun Devil Stadium where the Washington State Cougars take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona St. comes into this game at 5-2 on the season and 4-0 at home where they average 46.5 points per game and average 463 yards of offense in those games. Meanwhile Washington St. sits at 4-2 but have won their last 4 games after starting the season 0-2. Washington St. averages 542 passing Yards per game and the Arizona State defense gives up an average of 385 yards through the air each week. We look for Washington St. to air the ball out on offense and score some points but Arizona State loves to play in front of their home crowd and they too can score some points. Look for this to be a more offensive type game with a decent amount of points being scored but Arizona St. should keep it close at home. Take Arizona State at home with the points.

50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Utah in PAC-12 action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 10 points. The 50* play is the strongest possible play identified by the algorthims. Applying many machine learning and predictive modeling tools (Beyasian probabilities) to 30-years of historical results provide the most optimal forward looking predictive tools available right now. Unlike traditional probability, which uses a frequency to try to estimate probability, Bayesian probability is generally expressed as a percentage. In its most basic form, it is the measure of confidence, or belief, that a person holds in a proposition. Using Bayesian probability allows a researcher to judge the amount of confidence that they have in a particular result. As you readily see, these technologies are useful in many industries including insurance, banking, investment banking, human clinical trial analyses, biochemical based research, and of course sports predictive modeling.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah has been a money losing 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; UCLA is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play. Betting consensus figures also show a rather rare situation where the public has reached ‘red flag’ levels on the DOG. As we know, the public loves betting the favorites, so when betting levels exceed 70% on a dog it only adds more support to the Algorithm projections. 71% of all best have been on Utah. However, the line has moved from UCLA -6 to UCLA -7 at most of the major books I monitor. This too is a positive, since it reflects the large ‘smart money’ is more than offsetting the public’s irrational exuberance for Utah.

Fundamental Discussion Points  UCLA has a very strong passing game that has not been held in check in any game this season. Utah has been pounded by the ground game in their last two games and I believe there will be ample running room for the Bruin RB. Although, not necessary, if UCLA does establish the run early in this game, it will put the Utah secondary in man coverage on the perimeter and will be greatly mismatched against faster, quicker, and bigger playmakers.

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than 17 points and has an outside shot a major upset of No. 1 Alabama.   If you get access to a money line, then simply add a 3* amount to the 25* play using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams posting win percentages >= 80% on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a money burning 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas A&M +18 versus Alabama

The Aggies head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Aggies come into this game at 6-0 with quality wins over Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Texas A&M comes into this game averaging 274 rushing yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry. This powerful rushing game includes Trayveon Williams (5 TD’s) and also a very versatile QB in Trevor Knight who has 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Look for A&M’s power rushing to slow down this game and keep their defense off the field and well rested to match up against that Alabama offense that averages just over 500 yards of offense per game. Playing Alabama at home is never a small task but look for Texas A&M to give it all they got for this big SEC matchup in Tuscaloosa and for them to keep it close and give Alabama a fight at home. Take Texas A&M with the points.

25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Wisconsin in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 mark good for 90% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 20-7 against the money line (+16.1 Units) in home games when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-4 against the money line (+18.2 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wisconsin Badgers take a trip to Iowa City, Iowa this weekend to take on the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa sits at 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play just one game behind Nebraska in the Big Ten West Division. We look for this to be a lower scoring affair so look for turnovers and field position to play a big part in this game. Wisconsin has turned the ball over 11 times this year while Iowa has only turned it over 5 times. Wisconsin QB’s have thrown 7 touchdowns this year but have thrown 8 interceptions and in a Conference game like this, turnovers must be at a minimum. Look for Iowa’s offense to move the ball steadily with running back Akrum Wadley who averages 7.4 yards per carry and also in the air with QB C.J. Beathard who has a 60% completion percentage and 11 touchdowns this year. The Hawkeyes have a great shot at winning this game at home against 10th ranked Wisconsin. Take Iowa with the points.

25* graded play on BYU as they take on Boise State in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid opportunity to win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BOISE ST) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 4-2 against the spread versus Boise State since 1992. Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. MWC. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Boise State’s last 3 wins have not been as dominant as one would have thought and the Broncos are only 2-4 ATS on the season. On the other hand, BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.  BYU has had close games this year and also Boise has not been a good covering team. BYU's Jamaal Williams is ranked 4th in the nation with 134 yards a game rushing. Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine passing, four rushing) this season. Senior running back Jamaal Williams (3,468) became the school's all-time rushing list in the Mississippi State contest - surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) - and has rushed for 942 yards (second-most nationally) and 10 touchdowns this season. Nacua, a senior, is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career while sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard (48 tackles) racked up a career-best 16 tackles against the Bulldogs.

25* graded play on Virginia tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that V-Tech will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. V-Tech is a solid 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards. Miami has been a money burning 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’; 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Miami's Brad Kaaya-led offense has struggled (32 points in the losses) with the line shouldering much of the blame. Coach Justin Fuente's defense was ranked No. 3 nationally in yards allowed per game before Syracuse totaled 561 yards, ran 100 offensive plays and scored on its final two possessions. Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating, 17 touchdown passes, 319 yards rushing) is the third straight quarterback Miami faces who is as dangerous as a runner as he is passer, with the previous two having success both ways against the Hurricanes. VT's Travon McMillian posted 16 carries, 99 yards, averaging 6.2 YPC in the last Miami game and Isaiah Ford is doing well posting 32 catches and five TDs. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.

How to Play this Game SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on road teams in October (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a solid 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards; 62-25 ATS (+34.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Palmer is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. Jets WR Brandon Marshall has gone over 100 yards in seven of his last 11 games. Jets won the previous matchup back in 2012. The Jets can make things difficult for the Cardinals with their 2nd best rush defense in the NFL and Revis most likely coming back to help on the pass defense. Take NY Jets with the points.

25* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas City will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 over the last 10 seasons good for 81.8% winners! Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) - in conference games, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Another proven system supports this play posting a 28-9 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.7% winners. Play On road teams (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992 and they are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. Oakland is a poor 23-58 ATS (-40.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing under 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 20-47 ATS (-31.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game since 1992; 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are looking to back Andy Reid coming off a bye week and take the Chiefs in this one. Big Red has been a money maker in this role. The Raiders have a big time offense and Derek Carr is having a big year, but the Defense has been giving up 27 points per game. Recent history shows the Raiders have burned the money in a favorite role at home. Oakland looks to be without their best running back again this week. The Chiefs look to have versatile back Jamal Charles back in full force and this will also be a big lift to the Kansas City Offense. Alex Smith typically stays away from turnovers and runs the system well for the Chiefs and we look for the offense to have an easier time against the Oakland Defense. KC won at Oakland by 14 last year and then by 7 at home. We look for more of the same today. Take KC in this one.

25* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Tennessee in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns have beaten the Titans in each of the last two seasons. Tennessee entered this season having gone 1-7 SU at home in both 2015 and 2014, beating only the Jags each year. Cleveland RB Isaiah Crowell ranks third in the AFC with 416 rushing yards and has six rushing TDs in his past nine games. He is also outpacing the Titan's Murray at 5.6 ypc to 5.0 ypc respectively. Tennessee is ranked 24th in the NFL in points per game (18.4) while Cleveland is 29th at 17.4. Knowing that, the spread seems way to high. Take the Browns with points.

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on Arkansas in SEC West action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-16 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.6% winners. Play against home underdogs (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ole Miss is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Freeze is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of Ole Miss and he is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in the first half of the season as their coach. Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Rebels are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Fundamental Discussion Points With Ole Miss coming off of a bye week, and Arkansas coming off of a tough loss to Alabama 49-30, I predict that Ole Miss will win this week in SEC West action. Arkansas struggled last week, even though it appeared to be a close game; Arkansas’ QB Allen had 3 interceptions last week and they were only able to gain 73 yards rushing. Look for Chad Kelly (66% completion, 1,596 yards, 13 TDs, 4 interceptions) to hit his top two targets this week: Evan Engram (30 receptions for 479 yards, 4 TDs) and Damore’ea Stringfellow (20 passes for 305 yards, 2 TDs). Also, Ole Miss has a much stronger offensive and defensive efficiency rating, at 83.8 and 68.5, respectively. In comparison, Arkansas has a 60.6 and 51.1 efficiency rating, for offense and defense, respectively. Chad Kelly will have another stellar performance this week, and Ole Miss defense will step up to shut down Arkansas. Take Ole Miss.

25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Virginia Tech in ACC action set to start at 3:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by less than 15 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a BIG 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse at home is 5-1 against the spread versus VT since 1992. Hokies are 6-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Hokies have played well after the collapse in Bristol earlier this year and got a little help from the weather last week. Va-Tech has a big game with Miami on deck next week and get Syracuse at the dome, where they can use their speed and come up with big plays. The Orangemen have moved the ball against everyone this year and we look for more of the same today. Syracuse Quarterback Eric Dungey has completed 64.3 % on his passes this year and we look for the Cuse offense to put up enough points today to cover this big number.

35* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by less than 9.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a huge 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Volunteers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tennessee is 2-0 against the spread versus Alabama over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tennessee junior running back Alvin Kamara, who redshirted at Alabama in 2013 before transferring, figures to see the football a lot again after setting a school record with 312 all-purpose yards (127 rushing, 161 receiving, 24 returns) against Texas A&M. The terrific performance from Kamara (292 rushing yards, team-best 20 receptions) came with junior leading rusher Jalen Hurd (407 yards) sidelined with undisclosed injuries and coach Butch Jones said that Hurd will play versus Alabama. Tennesse is a tough football team and loves to keep their games close with Alabama. Take Tennessee Volunteers.

25* graded play on UNC as they take on Miami (FL) in ACC Coastal action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-42 since 1992 good for 66.9% winners and made 38.8 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 7-5 against the spread versus Miami since 1992. Miami is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Richt is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Trubisky and the Tar Heel offense were rolling until Hurricane Matthew came into town last week and shut the offense down. Until last week the Tar Heels were close in all big games this year and we look for more of the same today. The loser of this game will most likely be eliminated from winning the Coastal Division and making it to the ACC Championship Game. UNC put up 35 points in Tallahassee earlier this year and won on a last second field goal and we look for the offense to move the ball today. The Hurricanes are off a tough loss to Florida State last week and are now in a must win game this week. Brad Kaaya is having a solid season for the Canes but got a little banged up last week. We look for this one to be close throughout and like Carolina with the points.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on NC State in ACC Atlantic action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 over the last 10 seasons good for an incredible 83.9% winners. Play on Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (CLEMSON) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a win by 35 or more points since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. NC State is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Doeren is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of NC State. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense has been in high gear after starting off the season slow. This is a key game for Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division as if the Tigers win this game it would put the Tigers in the Drivers seat to return to the ACC Championship Game. The Clemson offense has been averaging 47 points a game at home this year and the defense has been solid against everyone not named Lamar Jackson. The Wolfpack offense has been good this year, but the defense has been average, take away help from Hurricane Matthew last week and the stop troops are nothing to get excited about and we don't see them slowing Deshaun Watson down today. Clemson won by 15 on the road last year and shut out State 41-0 in the last trip to Clemson. The Tigers get a bye next week and 2 weeks to prepare for their big trip to Tallahassee. We look for Deshaun Watson to have another big day and get back in the Heisman race, and the offense to keep rolling and the Defense to continue to play well again. Take the Tigers and lay the points.

25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on BYU in FBS action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miss. State will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-20 over the last 5 seasons good for 67.2% winners. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992. MSST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mississippi State and BYU split their previous meetings in 2001 and 2002, with the road team winning each time. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen went 2-0 against the Cougars while serving as Utah's quarterback coach in 2003-04. MSST has a higher completion percentage per game (60.24%) and allow a  lower completion percentage than BYU. In fact, the Cougars rank a lowly 128th in the country allowing 69.79% completions against them. In almost all other categories these teams are pretty neck and neck. Look for the Bulldogs to throw and complete a bit more to press this advantage. Take Mississippi State.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than four points and also has a great shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Here is a money line system that underscores the vey possibility of a TB win tonight. It has gone 22-5 for 82% winners since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (CAROLINA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is a solid 61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Cam Newton will be out, which significantly hurts the Panthers' chances. Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson had 10 catches for 147 yards and a score the last time he faced Carolina. Tampa Bay's defense allows less yards per play, a lower pass completion percentage, and are 8th (to Carolina's 20th) in opponent's 3rd down conversion percentage. With the NFL MVP, the Panthers went 1-2, without him, I see the TB having a solid chance. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a strong opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt; 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Rogers has not played well this year and his team has been out-statted in all three games. They are coming off the BYE, but this means little when we gather up all of the data from previous years in this situation. Key is that Rogers does not have the personnel to stretch the field against the Giants defense and if he is unable to post better than 6 yards per pass attempt, his team’s chances of winning the game are reduced significantly.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (CINCINNATI) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=7.3 PYA, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; Dallas is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Dallas is 3-1, but have played an easy schedule, especially when compared to who Cincinnati has played (at Jets, @ Pittsburgh, Denver, and Miami). Bengals rushing defense has been extremely good and they will be able to contain the strong Dallas attack today. This forces 3rd and long situations for a rookie QB to execute and that is not a something I see being a good situation for Dallas.

35* graded play on Oregon State as they take on California in a PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at posting the major upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 30* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also think simply adding a 3* play using the money line to the 35* wager using the line is a solid investment as well.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is just 38-97 ATS (-68.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents; OSU is a rock solid 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points After sending 21 seasons crunching numbers to create metrics, there is one dominant theme in many college football games and it pivots around the number 28. Many teams success or failure surrounds the number 28 and it can be if they score 28 or more or allow 28 or less points. In this game we have both in that CAL is horrible when allowing 28 points and OSU has been largely successful when scoring 28 or more. There is an 89% probability that OSU will score more than 28 points in this game. This game will be a PAC-12 shootout with a posted total of 71 points. This is NOT a recommendation for the ‘OVER” at all, but fact is that the matchups clearly show this will not be a defensive struggle focused on field position. This all favors OSU to compete for four quarters and keep this game to within 1 score going into the final 7:30 of the game.

Oregon State may have a weak defense, but Cal’s is even weaker based on a large percentage of the metrics calculated. I also like that OSU does not make mental mistakes as reflected in penalties/game where Cal does exhibit far more mental mistakes. I don’t think teams truly get caught looking ahead as many times as the media will want you to expect. However, Cal does have a big test coming up against Oregon in 2 weeks. So, the fact that Oregon is next with a BYE week looming could create coaching nightmares for the Cal staff. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on as they take on the action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 mark ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) with a struggling defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.

Fundamental Discussion PointsFSU is definitely not off to the start they had hoped, losing the last two games to end up at 3-2. FSU desperately needs to bounce back this game and they will do that with the help of their offensive line giving way to an impressive day for both Dalvin Cook (FSU RB) andDeondre Francois (FSU QB). Miami may have started the season at 4-0 but they have not truly been tested by a high-powered offense yet; this week, Miami has to face their first offense with true athleticism and speed. FSU’s offense is averaging 508.8 yards per game and has a fairly balanced offensive scheme. FSU’s offensive efficiency rating is an 85.7 (out of 100), ranking fifth in the nation at the moment. Miami has not faced an offense anywhere near this, with their last opponents having efficiency ratings of 24.2 (FAU), 50.5 (Georgia Tech), and 51 (Appalachian State).

Due to the untested defense of Miami, and the impressive offense of FSU, I predict FSU will pull off this shootout victory.

25* graded play on NC State as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by more than 5 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Kelly is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points N.C. State should be able to keep pace offensively behind quarterback Ryan Finley, who is completing 72.4 percent of his passes and has thrown for nine TDs without an interception. Finley benefits from a balanced attack that is averaging 208 yards on the ground and has totaled 12 rushing TDs, led by senior running back Matthew Dayes (437 yards, three TDs). NC State won the last meeting very easily 28-6 and are significantly ahead of ND in all the metrics. Notre Dame is a young and 'improving' team this year. Take NC State Wolfpack.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is 35-89 ATS (-62.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Penn State is 107-37 ATS (+66.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Terps will have their hands full with Lions signal-caller Trace McSorley, who totaled 408 yards of total offense - the third highest single-game total in school history – as Penn State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit last week to defeat Minnesota 29-26 in overtime. McSorley (58.9 completion percentage, six TDs, three interceptions) leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,284) and frequently targets wideouts Chris Godwin (23 catches, 325 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (16, 169) and DeAndre Thompkins (14, 237). Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley has 380 yards rushing this season. Penn State junior kicker Tyler Davis converted three field goals against Minnesota to match a career high and move his consecutive field goals streak to 17, breaking the school record of 15 held by Sam Ficken. Penn State coach James Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-10 and its wide receivers coach from 2000-04. Take Penn State Nittany Lions and the points.

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in BIG 12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by less than 20 points..

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Patterson is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of TCU and he is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU's shaky defense has allowed more than 40 points on three occasions this season. Willis has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 374 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Beaty said he has been more efficient in recent games than Cozart (62.6 percent for 581 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions). Sophomore receiver Steven Sims Jr. has performed well with 17 receptions for a team-best 312 yards and five touchdowns, but the running game has struggled with senior Ke'aun Kinner (179 yards) being the most productive back.  The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop opponents on third downs -- ranking in a tie for 98th nationally at 43.5 percent. With the spread so high on a conference opponent on the road, there's a small chance for TCU to cover. Take the many points with Kansas Jayhawks.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on Boston College in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 23.7 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. Another proven system supports this play posting a 57-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 70.4% winners and made 30.6 units/unit wagered. Play On road favorites (CLEMSON) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after leading their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons; 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Swinney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points As quarterback Deshaun Watson goes, so go the Tigers, and the junior recorded season highs of 306 yards and five touchdowns in the thriller against Louisville. He also tacked on a season-best 91 rushing yards and has been sacked only twice this season, giving him enough time to consistently find the likes of Mike Williams (25 catches, 373 yards, two TDs) and Ray-Ray McCloud (24, 271, two). Senior linebacker Ben Boulware is coming off a monster performance in which he registered a career-high 18 tackles (three for losses), a fumble recovery and a pass deflection - good enough to earn him ACC Player of the Week honors at his position. Clemson has won seven in a row on the road, one shy of matching the longest run in program history (1978-79). Take Clemson Tigers.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SF will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 mark using the money line good for 75% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. This system has gone 17-4 good for 81% winners over the last three seasons.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points In the NFL, parity has never been more present than during the first four weeks of this season and it has caused week-to-week reversals of team performances. SF crushed the Rams in Week only to lose three straight games since while the Rams have won three games straight. Neither did anyone expect Arizona to be 1-3 to start the season. However, Arizona has played below their performance metrics established in 2015 and we do not see them rebounding anytime soon. Drew Stanton will be under center tonight and that creates even greater chemistry issues with receivers and timing routes. On the SF offensive side of the ball, protecting Gabbert with balanced play calling has become coach Kelly's M.O. Running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs. The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats of nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown don't completely tell that story. I do think you’ll see Smith targeted far more often tonight on shorter underneath routes when he is in man coverage and especially in cover zones and man underneath zone schemes. Getting Smith the ball in space creates opportunities for greater yards gained after the catch. As of this moment, SF is actually the better team.

25* graded play on Temple as they take on Memphis in AAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by less than 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.6% winners and made 28.6 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis is a poor 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and they are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Temple is 3-0 against the spread versus Memphis since 1992. Rhule is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Temple. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. With a quick turnaround to this Thursday night battle, that could prove problematic. Temple has a high class defense that won't allow anywhere near the Tigers' numbers they posted in their 3 wins. The Owls also have had success, esepecially against the spread, when facing the Tigers. Owls K Austin Jones is 8-for-8 in field goals (long of 45) and 21-for-21 on extra points this season. Take Temple Owls with the points.

25* graded play on Arkansas State as they host Georgia Southern in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AS is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points An 0-4 team getting just 4 points to a 3-1 team is somewhat rare. The biggest factor in this game is identifying why AS is 0-4. The strength of schedule (SOS) is the reason with AS having played Toledo, @ Auburn, @Utah State, and then losing at home to Western Michigan. That loss is not a good one admittedly, however, this was a huge wakeup call for the team. I am certain messages from coaches have emphasized the need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and that they have a great opportunity to represent the school very well on National TV. The Redwolves were a preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference, which can still happen since this is the first Conference game for the team.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-6 mark using the money line for 86.4% winners and has made 32.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are mistake-free teams averaging

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Dallas in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.9% winners and made 26.8 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites (DALLAS) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a poor 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 and they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Garrett is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 49ers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in October.

Fundamental Discussion Points San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Dez Bryant discovered that he is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Dallas has lost its last six decisions without QB Tony Romo and Bryant in the lineup. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory will serve a 10-game suspension for multiple violations of the substance abuse policy, the NFL confirmed on Thursday. Carlos Hyde is tied with Elliot in yards per rush (3.9) and Hyde is tied for the NFL best four rushing touchdowns. Take San Francisco 49ers with the points.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Denver in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a money burning 21-50 ATS (-34.0 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, TB is a stout 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Winston threw for 389 yards on 36-for-58 passing in a loss to the Rams last week. Denver is a much better defensive team, but Winston has the mobility to extend plays. This capability is the perfect anecdote for an overly aggressive defense like Denver. If Denver opts not to bring pressure, then Winston has the arm to execute and compete underneath routs in a zone coverage scheme. I am looking for Winston to have another huge day with this one ending in a win.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 mark good for 87% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) and is a mistake-free team committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Over the last 3 seasons this system has gone 18-2 making 18.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Although just three weeks into the season, the Falcons are the top scoring offense in the league at 34.7 PPG. They are also best in yards gained per game (448), best in points per play at 0.545. The point is that Carolina has struggled to stop any of their first three opponents and rank 19th allowing 23.3 PPG. So, Atlanta has a huge advantage on the offensive side especially with two RB playing at a very high level. On offense Newton has been under pressure in nearly pass attempt. LT is a huge problem right now for the Panthers and Atlanta will look to show pressure – not necessarily bring it – from that side of the LOS. Moreover, Benjamin was shutout last week against Minnesota to a corner that gave up 6 inches and 65 pounds to him. So, this line is based on the public perception that Carolina will in no way lose this game and go to 1-3 on the season. Truth is that Atlanta is a vastly better team than they were last year and Carolina was thoroughly outplayed last week and they are not executing with any amount of confidence. Take Atlanta.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Baltimore in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-47 mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Every NFL season we see more teams either underperform or outperform their preseason media expectations. So, we have three teams this season that is undefeated and none of them were on the preseason radar in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I had mentioned in articles I published in the preseason a new model I had built that exploits the premise that the NFL is a league of parity; a league that is handicapped by the cap and has done very well in keeping most teams in a competitive bucket. However, I do not see Baltimore as a team that is going to go 12-4 this season, but I do see the Raiders making the playoffs. So, this is not the reason for this play by any measure. Yet, given Baltimore’s great start, it is ramped up the public betting on them and has now given us a SIM graded play that has added value from the inflated line. Raiders have had at least 123 rushing yards in each game. Baltimore has had a max of 84 rushing yards and has immense difficulty moving the ball on the ground. It has been Baltimore’s defense that has stepped up and has given the offense short field scoring opportunities. Sooner or later, this will end and Flacco will be forced to win the game with his arm and I think today is one of those games.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis in AFC South action set to start at 9:30 AM ET in London, England. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-26 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.7% winners and made 28.4 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992 and they are a poor 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Jacksonville is 61-23 ATS (+35.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jaguars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Luck is having some trouble finding healthy receivers, however, and T.Y. Hilton (knee) did not practice on Wednesday while Donte Moncrief (shoulder) could miss another month. The Colts steadily are getting healthier on the other side of the ball and surrendered 22 points in the Week 3 win after giving up a total of 73 in their first two contests. Colts LB Trent Cole was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Indianapolis CB Darius Butler (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and is week-to-week. Also factor in the Jaguars will be more comfortable playing in London than any other team in the NFL. Take Jacksonville Jaguars with the points.

5

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Unless the line does move to +3 and a minimum money line of +140, the combination wager consisting of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line is not validated. If it does move to that level, then by all means place the combination wager. I do think that the line is more likely to go to 2 ½ then back down to pick-em given the recent public betting flows that have developed over the last three days.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RY/G against a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing

25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on TCU in BIG-12 the action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-15 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is just 25-63 ATS (-44.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Sooners are a stout 123-64 ATS (+52.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going down to Forth Worth and going with Boomer and the Sooners in this Big 12 Matchup. These two teams traditionally have played close games, but we feel this is a statement game for Oklahoma as Houston and Ohio State have kept their big dreams at bay, but now they are back at home in the Big 12 where Bob Stoops has pretty much owned the conference. TCU lost a lot of offensive weapons coming into the season and have performed well this year so far. We think Oklahoma who comes into this game averaging 36 points per game will move the ball against the Horned Frog Defense and the defense will step up its game now that they are back in conference play. The Big 12 Championship is still in play for OU and we look for the Sooners to come in off a week of rest and be well prepared for this game. Baker Mayfield comes into this game with 7 touch down passes against 2 interceptions and look for this emotional leader to have a big day against the TCU defense.

Today it is Boomer Sooner and take Oklahoma and lay the 3 and a hook.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by at least 3 points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) solid team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; OK State is just 37-94 ATS (-66.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas runs the ball and then they run it again and again. They rank 7th in the nation averaging 52 rushing plays per game and rank 20th gaining 238 rushing yards per game. They are not a 1-dimensional team though and use the passing plays in vertical routes that are in man coverage and without deep safety help. Texas ranks 18th in pass completion percentage and 34th averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. As you can already see, I do not believe that the Oklahoma State corners can get the job done in man coverage against very quick Texas wide-outs. Moreover, the OK State defensive front will get worn down over the course of the game and that makes play action an even greater scoring asset for Texas.

25* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IST will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. If you do have a money line for this game play a 3* amount in addition to the 25* play using the line.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark using the first-half line for 83% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (BAYLOR) with a good defense allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Each season for the past 6, I have had a huge dog of 17 points or more not only cover, but also win the game. I am not suggesting this is that situation, but I do want to point out that fact so that when we release these huge dogs that you look to add the money line part of the play. I am seeing Money Lines in the +600 level and some even higher. IST has played a tougher schedule than Baylor, who has only played a solid competitor in OK State last week. Baylor has given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last two games. The more IST established the ground attack the greater their chances for the ATS win and the monumental upset too.

25* graded play on Appalachian State as they take on Georgia State in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will win this game by at least 24 points.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Next up we are going to Boone, NC and using the Mountaineers of Appalachian State over the Panthers of Georgia State. The last 2 years Appalachian State has won by a combined score of 81-3 and we see no difference here. Georgia State comes in winless but had a close call in Madison earlier this year. The Mountaineers come in with a balanced offense averaging 211 yards on the ground and 172 in the air. Appalachian State had 2 rough road games against Tennessee and Miami Florida and now are coming way down in class. The Mountaineers have been a money maker at home in these type of games and look for them to get the easy win in their first conference game. Take  Appalachian State and lay the 19.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on Florida in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going to Nashville and taking the points with Vanderbilt against the Florida Gators. Florida had a nightmare second half in Knoxville last Saturday and we think the hangover will continue this week in a return to the volunteer state. Vanderbilt comes in with a 2-2 record has a pretty balanced offense and should be able to hang around against a Florida team who has a real good defense but is nothing special on offense. The Gator defense is stingy on the ground only allowing 76 yards per game and the pass defense statistically is good but the second half last week was exploited for over 300 yards. Very few if any weeks are easy on the SEC road and we look for a hard fought game at home similar to Florida's close win in the swamp last year and for the commodores to keep this one close again. Take Vanderbilt and grab the points.

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on BYU in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot to win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they commit 1 less turnover than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. BYU is a money burning 26-85 ATS (-67.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Toledo is on a serious and sustainable winning run. They are 3-0 SUATS and covered the three games by a whopping 36 points. This is certainly a step up in competition for Toledo, but one that I strongly believe they can defeat. The Toledo defense is playing extremely well and has been dominating the LOS with their size and LB quickness filling holes and shooting gaps. This is what the BYU OL has struggled with through four games. So, this is the critical matchup and obviously one that I strongly believe Toledo will dominate.

25* play on Miami as they take on Cincinnati in Thursday night football action set to start at 8:30 pm ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by less than 4 points and has an outside shot to pull the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners and made 20.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (MIAMI) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (over 7.3 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Lewis is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents as the coach of Cincinnati and he is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as their coach. Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4. Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Ryan Tannehill leads the Dolphins on the ground with 54 yards rushing. He continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker. Cincinnati Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is not expected to make his season debut on Thursday, ESPN reported, citing a source. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) has been held out of both practices this week, leaving his status for Thursday's game in question. Miami DE Cameron Wake recorded three sacks versus Dalton in the last meeting, with the final one resulting in a safety in overtime of a 22-20 win. Take the Miami Dolphins.

25* graded play on UCONN as they take on Houston in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 22 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2010. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Huston is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points UCONN has the passing game to stay in this game. UCONN is not an elite passing team, but they do average 233 passing yards per game that rank 65th in the nation. The Houston passing defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game , which ranks 68th best in the nation. They are excellent at stopping the run and rank 2nd in the nation in that category. Further, UCONN connects on 67% of their pass attempts. They use quick slants, and hooks, which is a strong anecdote to ward off an aggressive defensive front.

25* graded play on the Chicago bears as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot they will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-34 mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) that is a bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a solid 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Dallas is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler’s drama is certainly much better suited for the couch in front of his TV where no teammates can see the toxicity he brings to any given situation. Hoyer will be a breath of fresh air for the entire team. He is 8-4 ATS as a career road dog and brings veteran leadership to a team sorely in need of stability. Dallas rookie Elliott has underperformed through the first two weeks and he will not break out in this game either having to go against one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Bears defensive grades have not been good, but are nowhere close to reflecting the overall talent of that unit. With Cutler out, I think you’ll see that defense play with renewed heart and will make it difficult for Prescott to move the chains and sustain drives. I have to admit, that this play appears to be a reach on paper given the recent two weeks of results. However, we have seen countless games where a contrarian approach proves correct and this one is backed first by the SIM Algorithm grading.

25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Philadelphia in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 91-21 ATS (+67.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Philadelphia is a miserable 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams come out of the gates at 2-0 the Eagles beating the browns 29-10 and the Bears on Monday night 29-14. The Steelers come in beating the Redskins 38-16 and the Cincinnati Bengals 24-16. Carson Wentz looks like the real deal and the Philadelphia Eagles Defense has been outstanding early this season. This is the week we will get a feel for how much the defense has improved as they face the first real prolific offense. This will also put Wentz in position to make plays to move the chains and not just manage the game focused on field position. We feel this is a low number due to the first couple of weeks results and look to take the Steelers as the go to 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the number. Although the defense has played well, the Eagles have several starters with injuries that may prevent them playing the entire game. I don’t see them having the depth to contain Antonio and Wheaten has the speed and quickness to overwhelm any man-coverage.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose by less than four points and has a good chance at pulling off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-47 since 1983 good for 66.4% winners and made a big 41.3 units/unit wagered. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Zimmer is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games as the coach of Minnesota. Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win. Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

Fundamental Discussion Points Quarterback Sam Bradford was excellent in his Vikings debut, completing 22-of-31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 17-14 win over Green Bay. Bradford can lead this offense even without Peterson, who was only gaining 1.6 yards per carry. Carolina committed four turnovers last week and aren't living up to expectations so far this year. In a 2014 victory over Carolina, the Vikings kept Newton under control. He completed 18 of 35 passes for 194 yards, holding a 65.7 quarterback rating.Through 2 games the Vikings' defense ranks 5th in both opponents yards/play and opponents yards/rush. Minnesota WR Stefon Diggs’ 285 receiving yards are the second-most through two games in Vikings history, trailing only Gene Washington’s 324  in 1969. Take Minnesota Vikings.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Arizona in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The current money line is +175, which provides a significant financial opportunity.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is also just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 2-13 against the money line (-17.5 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points   Rex Ryan’s defensive mind always presents preparations for any opponent. His use of cover-0 schemes with seemingly a multitude of pre-snap looks creates read problems for even the best QBs. I do strongly believe that the Buffalo defense will be a significant factor in a Bills win today.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on UTEP in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SMU will win this game by 16 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs (UTEP) with a struggling scoring defense allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 45-17 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (SOUTHERN MISS) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games with an experienced QB facing an opponent with inexperienced QB. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt; UTEP is a miserable money burning 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points Southern Miss comes into this game with a 2-1 record off a tough loss at home against Troy.  The Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 43 points a game versus 19 for UTEP. The Eagles own all the statistical angles in this game bringing the Better Rushing offense by 88 yards per game, Passing offense by 99 yards per game. Statistically are better on the defense side of the ball allowing only 97 yards on the ground versus 243 for the miners and allow 50 plus less passing yards per game. Basically saying Southern Miss comes off a 9-5 season returning 7 Starters on offense that averaged 40 points per game last year and most of the leading tacklers return. Last year they beat this same UTEP team at home by 21 putting up over 500 yards of Offense and holding the miners to 13 points and 298 yards of total offense. Southern Miss has a big road win already this year over Kentucky out of the SEC and we look for the Golden Eagles to get off to a big start in this Conference USA Western Division Matchup and use them as our top play today in El Paso.

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Auburn in SEC action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 7 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-6 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AUBURN) with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both head coaches are loved by their players, but are on the hot seat and another loss by either coach will turn the heat up on them even more. This would represent Auburn’s third home loss of the season and that unfortunately could be the final nail in his coaching coffin. The problem is the lack of consistency with the offense execution and playing against a team as strong as LSU is not the remedy. After starting the game against Texas A&M last week by completing his first six attempts, he bogged down and completed only 12 of his last 21 throws.

When he couldn't get the offense moving against the Aggies, Malzahn turned to junior college transfer James Franklin III in the fourth quarter. Franklin had two drives end with Auburn giving up the ball on downs, but he did get his team into the end zone for a late touchdown. Auburn will have no other option than to pound the ball between the tackles and I do not see that turning into any success against an LSU defense that will put 8 and 9 men in the box. Without play action capabilities resulting from an established run game, any of the Auburn QBs will be facing a mountain of pressure.

25* graded play on TCU as they take on SMU in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 24 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a solid 39-11 ATS (+26.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; SMU is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 150-200 yards. Patterson is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of TCU.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU does have a big showdown coming up next week against Oklahoma. However, this is a short drive for TCU fans and there could easily be more TCU fans in the stands than the hometown folks. Plus, TCU does have the better coaching and that staff will not allow TCU to have any letdown in this game and will use this game as a full dress rehearsal for Oklahoma.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game. Yes, this does factor in the all of the injuries and without Gronk playing.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992; Patriots are a remarkable 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as a home underdog;

Here is a money line system that under scores the strength of this play and has produced a 21-4 mark for 84% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, when playing on a Thursday.

Fundamental Discussion Points NE is by far the best managed team in the NFL and arguably the best ever in the history of the NFL. Whether you like them or hate them, you have to give credit to how the program is run from a team first attitude. So many times when the Patriots looked wrecked by injuries a new star appears on the scene or a 3rd string player steps and does his job, which in turn allows teammates to make even bigger plays. That unity is still there and based on the Algorithm projections I am confident the Patriots will move to 3-0 on the season.

25* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a major upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on a home team during the first four weeks of the season (GEORGIA TECH) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. This remarkable system is 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons and 11-1 over the L10 seasons. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 29-24 for 55% winners, BUT has made 34.2 units/unit wagered averaging a +201 DOG play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (GEORGIA TECH) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is just 8-19 against the money line (-34.5 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; GT is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wreck, as we all know, has an offense designed from the triple option and involves power running between the tackles augmented by the treat of option plays attacking the perimeter of the defense. Another area that favors GT is penalties. If a DOG is going to trip up a top-10 opponent, then playing without mental mistakes and penalties is critical to attaining that goal. In three games Clemson has been flagged 20 times for 185 yards, while GT has been flagged just 8 times for 93 yards.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been a money losing 3-22 ATS (-21.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards. Fox is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. Week 1 was a great debut for Wentz and the Eagles as they cruised to an easy victory and covered by double digits ATS. However, they are a young and inexperienced team at HC, QB, and other positions. Rookie NFL HC off a Week1 win and are on the road in Week 2 are just 1-12 and when they are off a double-digit ATS win in Week 1 are a horrifying 1-11-1 ATS

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler is an experienced QB that has trouble all his career establishing consistency on a week-by-week basis. However, we do know he responds especially well after a horrid drubbing and we believe he will do just that against the Eagles.

A matchup to watch is how the Bears handle Eagles DT Fletcher Cox. Kyle Long is one of the best RG in the league and he is one of the few that can handle Cox by himself. By not needed a double team to block/pass protect Cox, the Bears RBs will be running far more short slants, ins, and outs that Cutler can hit in space.

Eagles OL is certainly within the second-best quartile in the NFL. They added Brandon Brooks from the Texans, who has improved his pass grade in every year and is one of the better run blocking guards in the NFL. However, this unit will be matched up against arguable a top-3 defensive front and one that will look to play far better than they did in Week 1. Having a rookie starter at QB, you will see the Bears lining up all sorts of schemes to bring confusion to his QB reads/progressions and will certainly bring heat from varying spots on the field and at different times after the snap.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will keep this game within 4 points and has an outside shot to pull off an upset.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.4% winners and made 32 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; is 5-3 straight up against Arizona since 1992. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2. Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona rookie Williams got burned a handful of times by the Patriots and Winston surely will be looking to pick on him if he's still in the starting lineup. Winston was named the NFC's Offensive Player of the Week for his 281-yard, four-TD performance in the opener. He threw those 4 TDs to 4 different receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is easing his way back after undergoing major knee surgery in the winter. He's playing more as a straight center fielder in the secondary; not as the unpredictable blitzer and wild tackler and ball hawk the NFL is used to seeing. This lack of play-making ability against Winston and his offense will prove to be a difference. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on New England as they take on Miami in AFC East Divisional matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. NE is a solid 45-14 ATS (+29.6 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 46-9 ATS (+36.1 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points ­Bill Belicheck and the coaching staff did an outstanding job last week in the desert preparing Jimmy Garrapolo in his first start for Tom Brady (Deflategate Suspension). We now look for a similar performance at home in a division game against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were in a physical game last week in Seattle. The offense struggled against the Seahawks and the Defense gave up a late score to end the game. The Patriots get back more offensive weapons for this game mainly Rob Gronkowski and we don't see how the Miami offense will keep up with the Patriots. Take New England and lay the 6 1\2.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on the action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game.    Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a ­­36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is a team that had a winning record last season.

Fundamental Discussion Points Coming back with the USC Trojans getting 9 1\2 from the Stanford Cardinal, as we said last week the Trojans were embarrassed in Week 1 against Alabama and then easily covered the 16 last week against Utah State, holding the Aggies to their lowest total in a number of years. Stanford beat USC twice last year winning by 10 during the season and 19 in the Conference Championship game. Stanford lost several Offensive Lineman to graduation and struggled at times to move the ball against Kansas State but have 2 weeks to prepare for this game and probably have the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey and bring an improved Defense. USC does have playmakers and should have learned something playing against the Alabama Defense. Look for the Trojan Offense to score enough points to keep this game close similar to the Trojans last trip up the coast in 2014. Take USC and the points.

Ryan’s 25* NCAA ‘Upset Alert’ Titan

35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on UL-Monroe in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will win this game by 28 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LM is just 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points; 10-38 ATS (-31.8 Units) when they gain less than 4 total yards per play; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when they gain 3.5 to 4 total yards per play; GS is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Georgia Southern has been a model of consistency and one of the more physical teams in the Sunbelt Conference. They typically control the line of scrimmage and wear down their opponents. Last year Ga Southern went to Monroe and put up 51 points and won by 20. Moreover, they return all starters on the defensive front and this will create a mountain of issues for LM to just move the chains. UL Monroe comes off a 2-9 season and only returns 3 starters from last years’ weak defense. We look for the GS offense to put up significant numbers but the defense to clamp down and keep the Warhawk offense to a couple of scores, if that, and easily cover this spread.

25* graded play on University of New Mexico as they take on Rutgers University in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNM will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 since 1992 good for 75.5% winners and made 23.8 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 9 or more defensive starters returning. Another interesting system supports this play going 22-2 ATS: Play on any college football road team off a SU double-digit non-conference road favorite loss. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rutgers is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992 and they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. Davie is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of New Mexico. Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Scarlet Knights are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Fundamental Discussion Points While still limited in his overall effectiveness, quarterback Chris Laviano was able to make some positive plays in the passing game against Howard. The redshirt junior, who could be playing for his job against New Mexico, only managed to connect with 50 percent of his passes for 137 yards. Giovanni Rescigno and Tylin Oden each saw time at quarterback for Rutgers in the second half against Howard, but neither attempted a pass. The Lobos' leading rusher Teriyon Gipson will miss the game while in the concussion protocol. New Mexico has several other capable runners including Tyrone Owens, and quarterback Austin Apodaca's ability to run and pass can provide a tough test for any defense. Take New Mexico Lobos.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on the NY Jets in AFC East action set to start at 6:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 2-9 against the money line (-8.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is a stout 17-8 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt and are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams start the season off with losses and it already a[ears that the Patriots – even if Brady did not play one game – would easily win the Division. However, this is just Week 2 and getting to 0.500 may prove to be just what Buffalo needs in order to contend for a wild card berth.

Buffalo significantly underperformed it’s DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in Week 1 and teams that have missed the average by two standard deviations or more from their mean have a very strong tendency to outperform their mean in the following week. This same concept also applies to Buffalo’s offense so we have a powerful combination of a team, in needs of a win at home, having played horrid football in the previous week. Buffalo will get much better use of their ground attack with McCoy and give Tyrod a chance to use play action pass to open up the middle of the field and gain that extra second to execute plays. TE Charles Clay had an excellent game in Week 1 and I expect him to be a key ingredient to this win tonight.

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in AFC West action set to start at 1:00 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by less than 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 67% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 60-33 ATS (+23.7 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992 and they are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. McCoy is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog as the coach of San Diego. Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points The opening week of the NFL regular season is about gauging public perception and taking advantage of what might well be an inflated spread. I think this game falls into the category. The Chiefs are widely perceived as a team that has a great chance to get back to the playoffs for a second straight year. The Chargers are widely considered to be the likely last-place team in the AFC West and one of the weakest entries in the league. But in the opening week of the season, one of my favorite maneuvers is to zero in on divisional road dogs that were below .500 the prior season, particularly if they’re facing an opponent that was a playoff team. The rationale here is that the favorite will be priced a little too high based on that public perception and that creates value on the underdog. Fact is, if you check out the results of Week One games that have fit this scenario, taking the points has been extremely profitable.

25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Houston in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a great shot at getting the upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chicago is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; Fox is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached

Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago’s biggest asset and a vastly under rated group is their defensive front seven. 2016 additions Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and Jonathan Bullard were infused with Eddie Goldman and Pernell McPhee from last year to complete a very strong group that is perhaps one of the top-3 in the NFL. Freeman was the top graded LB against the run last season and now they add Travathan, who also ranked in the top-10 last season. Pushing the pocket from the interior shouldn’t be a problem with Hicks, who managed 18 pressures (seven knockdowns) a season ago, and Jonathan Bullard lined up at end. The latter’s skill-set appears well-suited to the five-technique position. This is the big key for this matchup and I do strongly believe that the Bears defensive front will eliminate Houston’s ground attack and subsequent paly action pass plays, whose success is dependent on an established ground game. Houston is one of the most run dominant teams, but with Osweiler under center, Chicago will look to force him to move to the chains with his arm and decision making, which was largely inconsistent at best in 2015. Take the Bears.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX is a solid 61-22 ATS (+36.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Further, JAX is 21-10 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points JAX is the most improved team in the NFL based on our grading and I also like taking the ‘over’ in Season WINS. This team has the potential to make the playoffs or at least be in playoff contention for the majority of the season. They are also in a division that is wide open with no dominant team in its’ mix. After acquiring up to five new defensive starters in free agency and the draft this offseason, both established and young talent on the defense will augment an improved offense — one that rose from the lowest-graded unit in 2014 to 16th in 2016. Bortles improved last season and is set to take his game to a higher level benefitting from the best WR duo in the league in Hurns and Robinson. The Packers are obviously a very good elite team. However, their LB and defensive front 7 are not even in the top half of the league. Bortles will get the run established and then can use play action where he will have plenty of time to scan the field and make solid decisions. Jax wins this one.

25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on California in Western action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is 36-96 ATS (-69.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 13-52 ATS (-44.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992; 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. SDST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Golden Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Bears are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on grass. Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Aztecs are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Aztecs are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Defensively, the Golden Bears allowed 248 yards on the ground against Hawaii and will need an improved effort to slow down Pumphrey, the nation’s active leader in rushing yards (4,370), all-purpose yards (5,284) and 100-yard rushing games (22). Running back Khalfani Muhammad ran for 96 yards on 10 carries in the opener but could have trouble finding holes against an Aztecs defense that ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (106.2) since the start of last season. The home team has won all seven meetings. San Diego State has gone a school-record 13 games without throwing an interception. Take San Diego State Aztecs.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Virginia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by at least 14 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt ; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards

Fundamental Discussion Points Virginia Tech is the public favorite this week with 62% against No. 17 ranked Tennessee; I am going with Tennessee. Though they underperformed in their opening game against Appalachian State, there is definitely reason to believe that they will rebound. In their first game they struggled with their offensive line lacking physicality and QB Dobbs underperforming, which I predict will both greatly improve this week.

It is hard to make a compelling statistical argument based on Tennessee’s lackluster performance in Week One. However, their defense performed well, holding their opponent to just 292 yards and only 13 points. Also, Tennessee’s offense only committed two turnovers in their season opener; Virginia Tech committed 4 turnovers in their season opener. In any sport, turnovers cost games, and this could be a potential difference maker for Tennessee. Look for number 17 Tennessee to come out physical this week to take down the public favorite, Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on UConn as they take on Navy in AAC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UConn will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 over the last 5 seasons good for 80% winners and made 23.2 units/unit wagered. Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-24 since 1992 71.1% winners and made 32.6 units/unit wagered. Play ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Navy's Tago Smith is out for the season ( Knee ). Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was a one-man show for the Huskies in the opener, passing for 162 yards and rushing for 95 more on 20 carries. Ron Johnson (two touchdowns) and Arkeel Newsome (one) each carried the ball 15 times in the opener, combining for 105 yards. The Huskies were among the nation's stingiest defenses last season. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Take Connecticut Huskies.

25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Duke in ACC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wake Forest will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wake Forest is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. Duke is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they commit 3 turnovers since 1992. Wake Forest is 8-3 straight up against Duke at home since 1992. Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings head to head.

Fundamental Discussion Points A stout defensive effort made Hinton's early touchdown stand up as the Demon Deacons won their opener for the second year in a row. WF faced a real division 1 team in Tulane as opposed to Duke facing a barely division 1 team in NCCU to pad their stats. Walford has averaged 292 yards with five touchdowns in two career meetings with Duke. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Duke is known for their basketball, not football...so take Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

25* graded play on Southern Cal  as they take on Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is a money losing 4-26 ATS (-24.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; USC is a stout 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points Clay Helton comes back to the Coliseum after a big opening day shellacking on National TV. The Trojans Offense returned 10 starters from a team that averaged 34 points a game in 2015 and after getting shut down by the Bama D last week will look to turn it on against a Utah State team that had an easy going against a division 1A program. Utah State had to replace a big portion of its' defense only returning 3 starters from last years team. This gives us tremendous line value in this game and look for the Trojans to come out with a purpose this week and win this one easy. FIGHT ON.

25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Inter-league NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these plays combination wagers using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The money line, however, must be +140 or higher to validate the risk-reward profile. If it is not at level then simply wager a 25* amount using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 14-1 against the money line (+12.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Denver is also 13-1 against the money line (+12.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points I think we all must remember the major matchup that saw Denver dominate Carolina in SB 50. Carolina tackle Remmers against OLB Von Miller. That matchup is the same, but both teams are significantly different from last years SB 50 rosters. Still, it will be that matchup to watch and one that Miller will again dominate. Over the 19 SB 50 snaps that the two met in pass-block/rush situations, Remmers held up entirely on just three occasions. That’s roughly 15 percent of the snaps. Think about that for a second: When left alone with the assignment of blocking Von Miller, there was only a 15 percent chance that Remmers was going to get the job done. There were five other snaps in which either Miller was reading Cam Newton on the rush and playing contain, there was a legit double-team, or the ball came out too fast for any kind of winner or loser to be determined. Even if we fold all of those into the “win” column for Remmers, he escaped unbeaten on only 42.1 percent of his snaps against Miller. The problem the Denver Broncos present is that they have other threats to contend with. Even if you take Miller’s pressures out of the equation, the Broncos’ defense racked up 33 total pressures in the last meeting, with five different players amassing four or more individually. If you eliminate Miller entirely from the pressure column with a combination of strategies, you still need to find a way to block DeMarcus Ware, Shaquil Barrett, Derek Wolfe, Shane Ray, and the rest of the defense. Take Denver. The Panthers O-line alone gave up 31 pressures in the Super Bowl, and on plays in which Newton was pressured, he completed just 35.3 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 53.6.

50* graded play on FSU as they take on Mississippi in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 9 points. FSU returns all 11 offensive starters including the QB obviously. Mississippi returns 10 starters with 5 on offense and 5 on defense. This is a monumental advantage for FSU, especially with the chemistry they now have on the OL for both pass blocking and run blocking.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1992. Play against any team (OLE MISS) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% winning record) playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mississippi is just 26-71 ATS (-52.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. FSU is a solid 128-70 ATS (+51.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points­ Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles come into the 2016 season and many predict to be in the playoff hunt for a national title, the offense returns intact from last years team averaging 32 points per game but most likely will start the young Quarterback in this game. The defense lost some key personnel but this roster is loaded with talent all over and also brings in the nations top recruiting class. The FSU run game returns Dalvin Cook who many feel is the best running back in the country. Ole Miss comes into this game with the best Quarterback on the field in Chad Kelly, but will be without his top playmaker Laquan Treadwell who took his talents to the NFL. Hugh Freeze has done a great job at Ole Miss going to 4 straight bowl games and the only SEC team with Alabama's number. Ole Miss lost some key playmakers on defense and all everything tackle and main run stuffer Robert Nkemdiche. This should allow Florida State to control the ground game and the clock, keeping Chad Kelly and the Ole Miss offense frustrated. We look for Florida State to get off to a good start on their National Title Hopes today and will take the Seminoles where they are typically very strong playing at a neutral site, which should still feel like home for the Seminoles. Take FSU.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this play a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. Current ML are in the +150 range. Should the line movement decrease to below +140 then simply play a 25* amount using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-24 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a money burning 18-69 ATS (-57.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; Texas is a solid 38-10 ATS (+27.0 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now ­– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.

25* graded play on BYU as they take on Arizona in non-conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Arizona is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Rodriguez is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday in all games he has coached since 1992. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on grass. Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Cougars will display a variety of pro-style sets under new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, who threw for more than 15,000 yards in his BYU career. Hill started last year's season opener against Nebraska before suffering a season-ending injury that opened the door for Mangum to throw for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Cougars should have a much better running game led by Jamaal Williams, who sat out last season after withdrawing from school and returns 930 yards shy of breaking the school rushing record. Where they'll need players to step up is the receiving corps, where only one of the top four pass catchers return from last season and that's Nick Kurtz, who caught 39 passes for 578 yards and three touchdowns. Like the Cougars, the Wildcats will also be thin on experience at wide receiver compared to a year ago, as last season's leading receiver, Cayleb Jones, left early for the NFL and second-leading receiver Johnny Jackson used up his eligibility. Freddie Tagaloa is expected to anchor an offensive line still reeling from the sudden death last month of Zach Hemmila, who started six games at left guard last season. Last season 'Zona's defense allowed 46.8% 3rd down conversions and 92% red zone scoring while BYU only allowed 38.4% 3rd down conversions and 75% red zone scoring.

25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Clemson in NCAA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at a major upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making these combination wagers using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. I am seeing lines north of +275, so this represents a tremendous investment opportunity. Over the course of the season, these combination wagers will add a significant amount to the bottom line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 mark good for 80% ATS winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) and is a team that had a winning record last season, playing in a non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Fundamental Discussion Points While Clemson is obviously the clear favorite for the public at 67% (as of Aug. 30th) and ranked at number two in the AP Preseason Pool, I have decided to go with Auburn. Clemson undoubtedly had an incredible year last year, but also lost nine players due to the NFL draft (compared to Auburn’s three). With seven of those draftees being defensive players, Clemson only has four returning defensive starters. Only one starter remains in Clemson’s secondary, so look for Auburn QB Sean White to attack the secondary in the season opener. Sean White has emerged as the Auburn starter in the wake of a 3 way QB battle over the summer; he brings experience and knowledge of the offense to the field, which is very important in the opening weeks.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 ATS mark good for 87% winners since 2006. Play against any team in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is now facing an opponent in the first month of the season that was a bowl team from prior season and who lost their last 3 games. The need for PSU to get out of the gate well is only magnified by how they finished last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they allow 42 to 48 points; 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 4 or less net passing yards/attempt; 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; PSU is a stout 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points KSU finished dead last in D_1 offensive scoring last season. PSU returns just 5 defensive starters, but the additions are vastly superior to those players replaced by graduation. They have the perfect offensive opponent and the offense will shred the Flash defense. Not to mention that PSU is back to fully strength with 85 scholarship players.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will win this game by at least 7 points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Vanderbilt has high hopes for a successful campaign in the elite SEC Conference, but the public is giving them no respect at all. Consensus betting as of this morning showed only 33% support for the Vanderbilt. What is really revealing is that despite the lack of love, the line has moved up from an opening line of -3 to -4. This is somewhat rare and reflects the smart money (big bettors) coming in on Vanderbilt in size that more than offsets the public’s $100 bets.

The Commodores’ defense took a big jump last year when Mason took over as coordinator, and the unit returns enough key players to expect a repeat performance. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur has won the job after starting five of the final six games last season and throwing for 503 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The return of receiver C.J. Duncan after missing last season due to injury gives the Commodores a solid receiving corps to complement running back Ralph Webb (1,152 rushing yards, 5 TDs last season). 

I certainly believe that SC will have a very tough time running the ball. South Carolina RB David Williams is the team’s top returning rusher (299 yards in 2015) at his position but is behind redshirt freshman A.J. Turner on the depth chart.

50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 38* play using the line and a 12* play using the money line.

As many of you know, I have advised using the alternate lines when playing dogs so increase the total ROI of not just the play, but also for the entire season. The Super Bowl presents an even greater amount of these lines. I like adding making a triple combination wager using a 34* play using the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then a 7* play using the adjusted line Denver -3 ½ at + 280. Also, intriguing is adding a 5* amount Denver 7 ½ that yields +440.

Betting public is pushing the Carolina band wagon during week 1 of wagering. Lines opened at Carolina -4 and now most establishments have a line of -6. There has been talk of the ‘smart’ money looking to buy back their -4 Carolina bets at -6 to play the middle, but 5 is just not a good number. Only 2% of games played this season ended with a 5 point differential. So, I am expecting this line to continue higher and may even reach 7 points during this week. This is why I am releasing this Super Bowl play early so that you can wait and take advantage of the line movement. This is not because I think, we will need the extra 1 2/ point or so, just to win. It is rather that, if there is an opportunity to get an even more favorable line, then why not.

In terms of prop bets, I like making 3* plays on the following opportunities. Play over 19 ½ Denver first downs; Over 5 converted Denver third downs; Over 2 ½ Denver sacks. First player to score a TD play a 1* amount on Vernon Davis at 40:1 and D. Thomas at 7:1.

Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 21-6 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against any team vs the money line (CAROLINA) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.5 YPR facing a good rushing defense allowing