The Dodgers are the top dogs in the NL West. The Padres remain a solid contender. The Rockies are already an afterthought. The Padres took yesterday's game and they will take advantage of their weaker division rivals again this evening.

King is one of a handful of converted relievers enjoying a great deal of early success this season. He was flat out dominant in his last start. In 7.2 innings, he limited Milwaukee to 2 hits and 1 run. He racked up 10 strikeouts. In 3 road starts, he has a 2.29 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. Feltner has a 5.06 ERA so far which is actually better than his career ERA. He gave up 9 hits and 6 runs last game, getting taken out of the park twice. Go with the Padres!

One of the best kept secrets from the first month of the season is Pittsburgh's Jared Jones. The 22-year old Jones has 32 strikeouts in 23 innings and a dynamite 0.78 WHIP. In 3 April starts, he has 23 strikeouts without issuing a single free pass. That's impressive for anyone, let alone a rookie. Now Jones can come in and play hero, when his team needs him most.

Joe Ross had a couple of decent years in 2015 and 2016 but has been nothing special ever since. He's got a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the season, his first since he was 5-9 in 2021. In 3 of the past 4 years that he pitched, Ross had an ERA above 5. Very hittable, in his last start Ross conceded 9 hits 6 earned runs. He's walked 8 in less than 14 innings in his 3 April starts. That's exactly the type of matchup which the Pirates need to break their losing streak. Go with the rookie over the journeyman. **NL Central GOY**

Boston won on Friday and Saturday but Pittsburgh will prevail on Sunday! Josh Winckowski is a reliever who isn't accustomed to starting. He hasn't been very good in the bullpen and moving to the starting rotation isn't going to make things any better.

Martin Perez pitched for Boston in 2021 and will be ready to take down his old team. A life-long member of the American League, the move to the National League has been great for Perez. The Pirates lost yesterday but are still 7-5 in day games. They won't be denied today!

Wednesday game resulted in a 2-0 pitcher's duel. Thursday afternoon's game will be entirely different. Carrasco is permitting a lot of baserunners. He has a 1.657 WHIP. Averaging less than 5 innings, he likely won't be around long. Four of Carrasco's last five starts against Boston have finished with 10 or more runs. Last game here Carrasco went only 2 1/3 innings and allowed 10 hits and 5 runs.

Brennan Bernardino won't be going deep into the game either. This is his first start this season. Of his 61 big league appearances, only 6 have been starts. The Boston bullpen didn't come into play yesterday because of Houck's masterpiece but it will today. Red Sox relievers have an awful 6.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP at Fenway. Go with the Over!

The Milwaukee Brewers haven't been involved in many pitcher's duels but they're about to get one on Tuesday! Dylan Cease allowed 2 runs in 6 innings last start. Both were unearned. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 straight starts. He is 5-2 to the under his last 7 starts. As a Padre, Cease has a 2.16 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. He held the Brewers to 2 runs in 7 innings in a start last August.

Miley has a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP from this season's only start. He allowed only 1 hit and 1 run through 4 innings. Since last season, he has allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, 3 runs in the other. Just like Cease, Miley is 5-2 to the under his last 7 starts. Miley's last start against SD finished with a 1-0 score. Both bullpens have been solid. Go with the Under!

Yesterday's game finished with a 5-2 score and runs will be hard to come by again today. Paxton has a dynamite 1.64 ERA in 2 starts. He's off a quality start at Minnesota, a game which finished with a final score of 4-2. Paxton faced the Padres last season and held them to 1 run in 6 innings. The final score was 6-1.

Darvish has been decent so far as he has a 3.86 ERA. Darvish has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts against the Dodgers, 2 or less in 5 of those. He only went 3 2/3 innings in this season's first start agains them but allowed just 2 hits and 1 unearned run. San Diego bullpen has been fairly solid (1.25 WHIP) on the road. Twelve of Darvish's 13 starts versus LA have finished with 9 runs or less. Eleven of those games finished with less than 9. Go with the Under! **NL WEST TOY**

Bad start (4-10) for Houston but yesterday's 13-3 loss represents rock bottom. The Astros are 10-6 their last 16 tries after 3 or more consecutive losses and 12-5 their last 17 tries after allowing 10 runs or more.

France has allowed 3 runs in each of his 2 home starts. He has made one home start against Texas. That came last July. In 7 innings, France allowed only one run and it was unearned. Houston won 4-3. Dunning usually seems to get to face the Astros at home. This time, he's at Houston. In his only previous start here, a span of only 4 innings, he gave up 7 hits and issued 3 walks. He also allowed 4 runs. The Astros won 6-5. They will win again tonight! **AL WEST GOM**

The Pirates got off to a hot start last year and then cooled right off. They are off to a hot start again this season. Once again, they will begin to cool off. That's what I said before their last game and they lost to the Tigers. Now they are on the road against a difficult opponent. Pirate rookie Jared Jones is also off to a strong start but he has only made 2 starts and will also cool off today.

The Phillies are off a win yesterday and they send Ranger Suarez to the mound today. They are 2-0 in his starts this season and he has a dynamite 0.727 WHIP in those games. The Phillies are 3-0 when Suarez starts against the Pirates. In 2 of those starts, Suarez allowed 0 runs. One was a game here where Suarez delivered a complete game 4-hitter. Off a win, the Phillies are 121-79 their last 200 tries. The Phillies are also 13-4 the past 17 times they hosted the Pirates. I'm going with the Phillies!

Arizona snapped its 5-game losing streak yesterday. This afternoon, in a rematch of a March 30th pitching matchup between Henry and Gomber, the Diamondbacks will make it 2 in a row.

The Rockies won that first meeting between Gomber and Henry. Henry was much better last start though. He was facing the powerful Braves but allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings. Before the March 30th loss, Henry had fared very well against Colorado. He allowed 2 hits through 7 shutout innings in his previous start against the Rockies and is 3-1 his 4 team starts against them. Go with Arizona.

These clubs have gotten off to opposite starts. The Tigers are 3-0 and the Mets are 0-3. That's partly a result of who they were playing. The White Sox are going to be awful this season and the Tigers began their season against them. A game at Citi Field will be a different matter! The Mets were 20-12 the last 2 years, after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Tigers were 13-13 after 3 or more consecutive wins.

Off the sweep at Chicago, the Tigers are still 75-90 on the road. After getting swept by Milwaukee, the Mets are still 97-70 at home. Manaea's teams are 2-0 his last 2 "home" starts against the Tigers. They won 8-4 and 3-1. Both Manaea's starts were quality. In all starts, Manaea has allowed 3 runs or less in 11 of his last 13. Go with the Mets!

We successfully backed the Reds in Thursday's season opener. Off their 8-2 win, the Reds coughed up a lead yesterday and lost 7-6. They will respond by closing the series with a victory! Used primarily as a reliever, Martinez is ready to prove he can cut it as a starter for Cincinnati. Opposing batters only hit .172 against him in the spring.

Irvin was 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last season, 1-2 with a 4.89 ERA on the road. In two starts against Cincinnati last season, Irvin gave up 3 home runs in 10.3 innings. The Nationals may have taken yesterday's game but they are still 20-40 their last 60 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Reds win!

We had with the Rays yesterday so it was nice to see them add some late insurance runs to their 8-2 blowout victory. That was also the score in Thursday's opener, the Blue Jays winning that one. Those totals were set at 7.5 and 8. This one is even higher. Too high!

Littlell was sneaky good in a September start versus the Jays. He gave up 2 runs through 5 2/3 innings but both were unearned. He struck out 6 and walked one, keeping the ball in the park. In 8 starts versus Tampa, Kikuchi has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs on 7 occasions. The bullpen won't blow it again. Go with the Under!

Off a loss on Opening Day, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to really want this one. The Rays were 78-64 off a loss the last 2 years. Aaron Civale came over at the deadline from Cleveland last year. Civale was better before the move. He's got a lot of determination to get off to a strong start to show Tampa what he's all about.

Bassitt was a much better pitcher at home than on the road last season. He had a 2.86 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home but a 4.50 ERA and 1.486 WHIP on the road. He turned things around in May but struggled with a 5.18 ERA before that. The Rays are 104-61 their last 165 games at home. They will even their record after today.

Paced by their top three starters, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should again have one of the better starting rotations in baseball. In fact, they return all five starters from last year. Remember, Seattle had the best combined ERA (3.74) in the American League last season. Seattle pitchers recorded 18 shutouts in 2023, the most in the big leagues and a franchise record. The Mariners also set a franchise record with 1,459 strikeouts in 901 innings pitched. Today's starter Castillo is the best of the bunch. In 5 spring starts Castillo had a 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Opposing batters hit only .194 against him here last season. The Red Sox are a young team which is in for a long season. Bello had a 4.66 ERA when starting on the road last year.

Mitch Haniger, who has returned to Seattle, said this of the Mariners: "This group is just hungry The guys in here want to win. Ultimately, being a loser is not fun. It's really motivating just to try to get back into the playoffs and win a World Series -- the No. 1 goal. It's win the division first and get in the playoffs, and then make a run and win that last game of the season." They take the first step towards that goal on Thursday night!

Yesterday's game was over before it started. Texas was up 10-0 by the second innings. Arizona scored six runs in the eighth and ninth but by then it was too late to matter. Today's game will play out much differently. Yesterday was a bullpen game. Today, the Diamondbacks have their ace on the mound. Gallen has been super at home all season long. He was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA here. In a division with the Dodgers and the Padres, Arizona wasn't ever supposed to get here. The Diamondbacks, who hit Eovaldi well (5 runs, 4.2 innings) when they faced him, have been defying the odds all year long though, Gallen leading the way. They're the definition of resilient. They likely will not become the 7th team in history to come all the way back from a 3-1 WS deficit, but they'll at least force a Game 6! *** playoff goy

Back-to-back high-scoring games to start the WS and now the scene shifts to Arizona. Pfaadt has come up big for the Diamondbacks. He's got a 1.29 ERA his last 3 starts. All resulted in Arizona victories. All resulted in games that fell under the total. Scherzer is an all-time great. He's 5-0 in six appearances at Arizona and he allowed 1 run or less in 3 of those. He also allowed 3 or fewer runs in all three of his previous WS starts. He'll be better today and the final score will stay below the total. **playoff toy

Lots of hitting in yesterday's winner-take-all event as last night's Game 7 ended with 15 runs. This one will be much lower-scoring. Most recent Game 7's are. These teams combined for 6 runs yesterday. Both these starters were extremely strong when they opposed each other in Game 2. The final score was 2-1. That was by far the lowest-scoring game of the series. Pfaadt went 5.2 shutout innings, Suarez went 5.1 shutout innings. This one also stays under. *NLCS TOW

A previously high-scoring series will feature great pitching tonight. Eovaldi is a great competitor. He's 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the postseason. Twenty-four strikeouts in 19.2 innings. Valdez may not have been brilliant in this series but he's still only a couple of months removed from throwing a no-hitter. With a chance to punch a ticket to the World Series The bullpens got a day to rest yesterday and it will be all hands on deck. Look for the bats to stay quiet and the final score to stay Under. *ALCS TOY

The Phillies are very strong at home in the playoffs. They jumped on Arizona early yesterday and won 5-3. That game had a lower total than this one and the final score finished over. This one will be lower-scoring and likely won't feature early runs the same way as yesterday. Take a look at these pitching numbers. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the current postseason. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in the postseason. Kelly now has a 2.20 ERA his past five. Nola? He's 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Neither starter has allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. This game stays under! *NLCS TOY

Curiously, this game will mark the first time that two teams from the same state faced each other in the League Championship Series. The Astros have a future Hall-Of-Famer on the mound. They've got a lineup loaded from top to to bottom. The Rangers turned things around at the right time to get this far. This is new territory though. The Astros have beaten the Rangers three straight times and have won seven of the past eight. They were 9-4 in the season series. Verlander has a 0.47 ERA his last three starts (one run in 19 innings) and a 0.00 ERA his past two. Verlander's teams are 8-1 his last nine against Texas. He allowed just 10 combined earned runs in the nine starts, always going at least six innings. Only one way to go! *ALCS GOY

Baltimore dropped Game 1 but will respond and level the series this afternoon. They may have lost against Heaney yesterday but the Orioles have still crushed left-handers. They're now 37-18 against southpaws. They may have lost yesterday but the Orioles have still done really well in day games. They're now 34-23 in afternoon affairs. Montgomery's teams are only 4-12 when he starts on the road. His teams are also 0-5 his last five starts at Baltimore. Rodriguez is 2-0 and has a 1.45 ERA his last three starts. Orioles have found a way to win the close games and get timely hits. They're 37-24 off a loss and they will respond. *ALDS GOY

The Marlins have played the Phillies tough this season. They're 7-5 the past 12 meetings. The majority were close. Since we're getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Marlins today, I will point out that the games between these teams have been close. Five of those 12 games were decided by one run and that another four were decided by two runs. All three of Wheeler's starts against the Marlins were 1-run games. Miami won two of them. Luzardo has made five starts against the Phillies in his career. He's got a 3.27 ERA in those games with 37 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. Luzardo's teams were 4-1 in those games and the lone loss came by 1-run. Every run will be important in this game and I'm happy to grab an extra +1.5 of them with Luzardo and the Marlins. *NL East GOM

This number, in my estimation, is too low. Entering the weekend,.Baltimore games vs. right-handed starters were averaging 9.2 runs. Boston games vs. right-handers were averaging 9.9. Bradish has been pretty good but he got destroyed the last time that he faced the Red Sox in a game at Baltimore. In fact, he's 1-4 with a 8.13 ERA in 7 starts against Boston. Houck has just been plain bad. He gave up 10 hits in 3 innings of last start. He was on the wrong-sided of an 11-2 loss (against Bradish) against Baltimore less than a month ago. This one sails over! *AL East TOM

Both teams played high scoring games on Sunday. This one will be different. Verlander against Castillo facing each other in a huge game. Talk about a heavyweight fight! These guys are both absolute aces. Verlander can still dominate. His last road start, he allowed one earned run in 7 innings. Castillo has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts, including each of his past three. His last two home starts both finished with identical 3-2 scores. He held Houston to a single unearned run through 7 innings, back in July. Knowng their teams are in need, Castillo and Verlander both bring their A-Game in this one. Enjoy the old fashioned pitcher's duel.

Tuesday's win brought the Cubs to 29-18 in divisional action, entering Wednesday. They'll have the edge in Thursday's series finale. Hendrikcks and Oviedo opposed each other back in Sept. 2020, when Oviedo was with St. Louis. Hendricks was great. Oviedo was not. The Cubs won 5-1. Tuesday's loss dropped the Pirates to 27-51 against winning teams, entering Wednesday. With an 8-14 Oviedo hasn't helped. He's got a 2.35 WHIP his last three starts. In those 12.3 innings, he issued 12 walks, while also allowing 17 hits. That many baserunners will catch up to Oviedo against the highly motivated Cubs. The Cubs won 21-0 the last time Hendricks started at home against Pittsburgh. Lay the price with Chicago.

Seattle is still scrapping for a spot in the postseason while Oakland has been eliminated for a long time.  Probable starter Castillo for the M’s has been on fire lately with a 4-0 record in his last 5 starts and a 1.60 ERA.  Two of his last 5 starts had more than 6 innings of shutout ball.   Probable starter Blackburn for the A’s has a 5.73 ERA and an abysmal 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts, where he has only averaged 3.7 innings pitched. 

Castillo also has a superior bullpen to support him when he comes out after his 6 or so innings. 

Head-to-head this season the Mariners hold a 9-1 edge in their last 10 against the A’s, where the average run differential in the Mariners’ wins is +4.  Lay the runs on this one and take the Mariners.

The Nationals and the White Sox have both been eliminated from the postseason and are starting to play around with their pitching staffs to see what will work for the future.  Probable starter Rutledge for the Nats has one start in the majors to his name and it didn’t go well.  He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 innings of work.   He has bounced around in the minors for 7 teams in the last 4 years with wildly varying degrees of success.  He should be just the remedy the White Sox need to activate their lethargic bats. 

Probable starter Ureno for the White Sox had 5 starts in April, was released by two clubs and now has 2 starts in September.  In his last 5 starts his team has surrendered an average of 9.4 runs.

In their last 7 games the two teams have given up an average total of 11.5 runs/9 innings.  All these numbers point towards that perfect storm of high event baseball.  Make a bowl of popcorn and add up the runs for this over total.

Spoiler alert?  The Guardians swept the Rangers, and the Royals had a series win vs the Astros.  What is in store when the teams meet up in KC?  Likely a Guardians win, if Quantrill continues to pitch as he has since returning from the IL.  He's given up just three runs in his three September starts, with an OP BA of .164.  Meanwhile it has been a lost season for the Royals' Singer. After a missed start for arm fatigue, he has continued to struggle, allowing more than a run an inning and with an OP BA of .383 in his September starts.  Neither bullpen has been effective lately, but the Royals have a dismal record vs right-handers this season.

The Guardians limited Texas to 6 runs in their series, while scoring 23.  The Royals have also put up some runs lately, but they are still giving up more runs than they are scoring.  Compare runs for and against; Cleveland is 5.1/2.9 L7 ; KC is 5.3/5.6.   Let's see if some of that Guardians offense can continue into the Royals series.  Take the Guardians to win on the road .

Facing the White Sox in Chicago, the Twins have taken the first two games, outscoring their opponents 20-4.  Will we see three routs in three games?  It is entirely possible, if Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.  The Twins right hander has a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 14 in his last appearance.  He has a ton of innings under his belt at this point in the season, but he seems to be handling the work.  Lopez is very good on the road.  A very uneven Toussaint starts for the White Sox.  He lasted only a single inning last time out, allowing 8 runs, but was effective in his three previous starts.  His ERA is much worse when pitching in Chicago. Toussaint will face a hard-hitting squad on Saturday.  The Twins are third in the league over the last two weeks at .266 BA /.824 OPS.  The Sox are enmired in 29th place at the moment at .223/.603. The Twins have really roughed up the Sox'  very lackluster bullpen in the last two games.   Leading 5-0 in games vs the Sox this season, I think you can tack on another win for 6-0.  Take the Twins on the run line to win.

The Twins beat up on the White Sox on Thursday and are now 5-0 against Chicago. Ober likely starts on Friday. He pitched well in the early season but appeared to run out of gas in August. He has been "resting" in the minors, but looked sharp in his only Triple A start. He will face Scholtens, another starter who appears to be running on empty. He has given up 8 runs over 8+ innings in his last two starts, with a .425 OP BA in September. The Twins are 5th in OPS over the last two weeks (.259 BA/.824 OPS). The Sox are just .225/.609 over the same stretch. Better bullpen, better offense, and a refreshed starter; this game is ripe for the picking. Take Minnesota to win.

The Rangers woke up from their slumber about a week ago.  They've since reeled off 6 straight wins, sweeping the Jays. They have also re-found their big bats, hitting .300 BA/.946 OPS/L7.  Texas is a good road team while the Guardians are just .500 at home and have slipped to just 3 wins in 10 games. Cleveland's offense, a problem spot this year, has fallen to .209/.602, and their usually solid bullpen has been sub-par.  The Guardians' starter Giolito has been outright poor since leaving the Cubs.  He did pitch for length in his last start, but his ERA for September climbed to 11.70, and he has allowed 14 HR (not a typo) in his last month and a half.  Jon Gray has pitched very well at times this year, but his starts are shorter lately and his ERA has climbed in September.  The Rangers' pen has been very effective in recent games.
I am a bit surprised at the odds today.  While anything can happen in baseball, this game should be there for the taking for  a Rangers team that is again pressing for the lead in the AL West.  Jump on the Rangers to win.

Two very good right-handers meet up today when the D-backs' Kelly faces the Mets' Senga today.  Kelly has been one of the most consistent starters since returning from the IL in July.  He has a 1.42 ERA with 18 K's in his two September starts.  Senga has a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts.  He faced the Diamondbacks in July, throwing an 8 inning, 1 run gem.  Arizona, at 6-4, has been winning with their pitching.  The offense hasn't managed more than four runs and is averaging less than three in their last six games.  The Mets put up 14 runs in their last two starts against the Diamondbacks, but in their previous five games averaged under three runs.  The Mets have been hitting for power if not for average in the last week; not so the D-backs, who are 25th in the league at .238/.697.  I expect today's game to be low scoring.  Take the Mets and Diamondbacks to stay very low in runs allowed while the starters are in, and hold on for the under.

As good as Josiah Gray was early in the season, he has lost his way in August and September, with just one quality start in his last six appearances.  He has averaged nearly a run an inning, lasting just three or four innings per appearance lately.  He has struggled when pitching on the road this season.  He will face the Pirates' Keller who was crushed in his last start vs Atlanta, but has otherwise been solid, allowing three runs or less in his previous five starts.  Keller is a good bet to bounce back, especially when pitching at home.  The Nationals are just 3-7 in September.  They lost their home part of  back to back series and now face the Pirates at home.  Washington is struggling on offense (29th, .225 BA, .650 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Another short start from Gray will expose their unproductive bullpen.  The Pirates are above .500 in September, and hitting better for average and power.  Look for continued strong work from Keller and a third straight victory from the Pirates.

The Orioles are the first team and the Cards are the other.  Probable starter, lefthander Rom, was in the Orioles system until he was traded to the Cards a few weeks back.  He finally made his major league debut on August 21st and it has been a rough go so far.  His 7.79 ERA, 2.02 WHIP and 0-2 record have revealed a work in progress.  On the other mound, probable starter Gibson for the Orioles has been around the block.  His season has been uneven and eventful but he has held down the fort for the most part.  With the hottest team in the majors at the plate over the last 15 days (1st in avg and OPS) and an impressive runs/9 innings differential of +3.3 over the last 7 days he has all the support he needs.  The Orioles also have a 35-16 record vs. LH starters this season and are 15-4 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Coming off a loss to these same Cards Tuesday night and you can be sure they will loaded for bear for this one.  Take Orioles on this play.

One team is chasing the leaders in baseball’s toughest division while the other leads the weakest division.  The Rays will be hungry after dropping a close one Tuesday night to the Twins.  Both probable starters have had troubled seasons and are trying to reestablish themselves in their rotations.  Bradley for the Rays was recalled September 3rd.  In his two starts he doesn’t have a decision, but his team won both games and his ERA is a respectable 3.98.  Lefthander Keuchel for the Twins has only been back in the majors since August 6th after being let go in early September/22 by the Rangers.  His starts have been uneven, but he has managed to stick around.  In his last three his ERA is 4.30.

Keuchel will be in tough against the Rays as they have hit lefties hard this season with the 9th best average and the 10th best OPS against LHP.  The Rays are 21-8 against LH starters this season. 

The Rays have a +1 run/ 9 innings differential vs. LH and a +2 run/9 innings differential over their last 7 games.  It should prove to be a long night for Keuchel even though he only averages 4 innings pitched over his last 5 starts.  All of Bradley’s last 5 starts have been 5 innings or longer except for one.  Go with the Rays on this one.

The Dodgers are better than the Padres overall, better at home than the Padres on the road, marginally better at the plate over the last 15 days, have a superior bullpen and their runs/ 9 innings differential is also superior. 

What they don’t have is a superior probable starter for late Tuesday night.  Probable starter Wacha for the Padres is having an outstanding season even though his club has failed to meet expectations.  He has a 2.99 ERA (2.00 over the last 5 games), an 11-3 record (3-1 over the last 5 games) and a 1.17 WHIP.  Lynn, the probable starter for the Dodgers has a 6.06 ERA (10.80 over the last 3 games), a 10-11 record (2-2 over the last 5 games) and a 1.46 WHIP.  Furthermore, Wacha has a 3.65 ERA in his road starts while Lynn has a 5.86 ERA in his home starts. 

Even though the Dodgers bullpen has more quality the game will be over by the time it comes into play and the Padres bullpen is good enough to hold the fort after the starters have left the mound.  Take the runs and the Padres for the win. 

These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season.  Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. 

In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13.   Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total.  In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15.  Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September.  Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts.

The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. 

The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. 

All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game.  Take the over and enjoy an early high event game.

The Cubs are highly favored on Monday, but off a critical series loss to the D-backs, this is a must-win game.  Chicago has had much superior starting pitching lately, including Monday's starter, rookie lefty Jordan Wicks.  Wicks, a former first rounder has been terrific in his first three starts, pitching for at least 5 innings (6.2 last time out), and giving up  just 4 runs total over 16+ innings.  He will face Freedland, another lefty, who is off a decent start, but whose August stats have not been impressive; 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and a .324 OP BA.  .Rockies are checking in at 29th in offense (.228/.649) while the Cubs are positively rocking it by comparison, way up in the 16th spot.  The runs for and against record tells the story; Chicago is 6.1/3.9 in their last 7 games while the Rockies 4.6/7.1.  I'll take the hot rookie starter and a very motivated Cubs team to win on the road.

The Rangers' free fall in recent weeks (3-6 in Sept.) has been aided by some very poor pitching from starters  (8.22 ERA) and relievers (7.01 ERA) alike.  Today's starter Dunning had a fine first half, but his latest starts have been short and sub-par.  He was shelled in his last game and has allowed five home runs in his last two games.  Bichette, Toronto's recently returned spark plug, has been a particular thorn in his side with  .455/3 HR/5 RBI's in 11 AB's. Jays' starter Bassitt, a fine pickup for the Jays this year, has been especially good in recent starts.  He has a pair of 8 inning appearances allowing just 0 and 1 run in his last two starts.  
The Blue Jays' pen has been one of the best in the league this season.  Now 7-2, The Jays have been beating up on the league's small fry lately.  They are third in offense over the last two weeks, hitting .293 BA, and .866 OPS.  The Rangers' bat have cooled off during their swoon, falling to 16th at .239/.754. The Jays are still in the running for a wildcard spot.  Texas at the moment is on the outside looking in.  I am on the Jays today.  Look for the veteran Bassitt to continue to deliver with the Jays winning at home today.

Two fine starters face each other when the D-backs meet the Cubs in Chicago on Saturday. We may not see much of either bullpen as these two pitchers can throw for length as well as success. Steele has been rock solid this season but especially when pitching at home, where he is 12-2. What has he done lately? Just 14 innings pitched, zero runs allowed and twenty K's in his last two starts. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has been almost as good lately, but if I have to nit-pick, his ERA is about a run worse on the road and he has not been quite as effective in day games. The Cubs have an edge on offense lately, but really, this game is all about the starters. A Wildcard spot could be at stake, and the Cubs, after a pair of losses to the D-backs, with be just a bit hungrier. It is hard to argue with Steele at home. Take the Cubs to win a close one.

The 4-2 Mets are on the road against a tough home side in the Twins. Both have winning records in September and both are hitting well over the last two weeks. While NY is definitely the inferior team this year, they have Senga on the mound on Friday and that counts for a lot. He has eliminated many of the walks that plagued him early, pitches for length (+6 innings /start) and strikes out a ton. He will face Keuchel who has 3 of 5 quality starts since returning in August. When Keuchel is off, as he was last time out, the sky is the limit as far as runs allowed go. Based on past performance, he is a hard pitcher to have much faith in. The Twins strike out more than any other team, and Senga has 22 K's in his last two starts. Minnesota has never faced him before. I like the Mets' chances, especially early, however their bullpen has been equal to the Twins' of late. They haven't been the best road team this year, but a much superior starter will aid the Mets to steal the first game of the series on the road.

The Padres are finally getting their money's worth out of lefty Blake Snell. A Cy Young candidate this season, he is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.20 in his last seven starts. And he's getting decent run support as well. Neither August nor September has been kind to right hander Hunter Brown. He had some very solid starts early in the season, but his ERA has climbed to 6.00 with an OP BA approaching .300 in the last two months. The Astros are not as good at home as one might expect, barely over .500, and are 3-3 in September. They are tops in the league in OPS over the past couple of weeks. The Padres are 4-2 in September, and while a disappointment on offense this year, have crept into the top ten at .265/.766 in the last two weeks. Brown has pitched a lot of innings for a youngster this year, and had been much less effective in Houston. Snell is as dependable at it gets. Take the Padres, a small underdog to win on the road today.

The D-backs are  just 4-6, with pitching woes.  Ryne Nelson was just reactivated after a pair of very poor starts in early August sent him back to the minors.  He can struggle in the early innings and gave up far too many HRs in July and August.  He will face a hot Cubs' starter in Assad.  He is off his best and longest outing since converting to starting in August, pitching 8 innings of shutout ball.  Assad held the opposition to a .198 BA last month.  The 6-4 Cubs are holding down a wild card spot at the moment.  They are a good home team and tough against right handers.  Chicago has a very healthy run differential lately, and a solid bullpen.  The D-back as of Wednesday AM are just 2.7/5.4 in runs for and against.  Arizona is very short on starting pitching, hence the Nelson call-up.  They've had too many short outings from their starters, resulting in bullpen overload.  Take Assad and the Cubs to win the opener.  Chicago on the run line at -1.5.

These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September.  The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over.  The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games.  And I really mean over.  The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game.  The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. 

Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though.  Not so fast.  In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over.  And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings.  That makes a total that sure looks like an over.  Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total.  Take the over and start counting runs.

The Jays’ playoff hopes are hanging on for dear life over this nine-game stretch against bottom feeders.  So far, they are 4-1 and they need this next game (and the next 3 after that). 

Although his last start was good, probable starter Sears for the A’s had an 8.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP for August.  Probable starter Ryu has been rounding back into form since his return to action August 1st.  His August ERA was 2.25 and his WHIP was 1.00.  And after he finishes his consistent 5 innings his bullpen has a solid roster of next-man-up relievers that have been outstanding for the Jays this season.

At the plate the Jays are in the top fifth of the majors against lefthanders and over the last 15 days in avg. and OPS.  The A’s are in the bottom fifth of the majors in both instances.  They are also 8-22 as a home dawg this season.  Lay the runs and take the Blue Jays on this one.

The Blue Jays’ probable starting pitcher, Bassitt, is really peaking at the right time as the Jays make their final push.  In his last three starts his ERA is down to 2.75 and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  In the other clubhouse, probable starter, Waldichuk, moved back into the rotation July 9th after a stint in the bullpen.  There have been mixed results as he, along with his team have struggled.  In his last three starts his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.38.  His biggest problem is going to be facing a Jays’ batting order that has feasted on LH starters this season with the 3rd best avg. and the 8th best OPS.  In the last 15 days the Jays have continued to be hot as they are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS while the A’s are in the bottom ½ of the majors.  But against RHP the A’s are dead last in the majors.

With a 7-20 record against teams with a winning record in the last ½ of the season and an 8-21 record as a home dawg don’t look for success in this one vs. the Jays.  Lay the runs and go with the Jays.

It is not often that I find all of my key indicators so clearly pointing in one direction.  Probable starter Kremer has been hot for the Orioles in his last 5 starts with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.  Probable starter Detmer for the Angels has not been hot with his lone decision in his last 5 starts coming against the struggling Rangers. 

The available bullpen for the Orioles has a combined 3.11 ERA while the Angels have a 4.76 ERA  available.

This dominance continues at the plate with the Orioles sporting the 5th best avg. and the 9th best OPS over the last 15 days in the majors.  Over the same time frame the Angels have the 21st best avg. and the 13th best OPS.  Against left handed starters the Orioles have the 12th best avg. and the 9th best OPS.  The Angels have the 17th best avg. and 9th best OPS against right handed starters but that is with the now injured Trout and questionable Ohtani who would have made considerable contributions to that result. 

Over the last 7 games the Orioles have averaged 6.1 runs for/ 9 innings and 4.1 runs against / 9 innings while the Angels have averaged 4.6 and 7.1 respectively. 

On top of all that the Orioles are 9-1 when a road fav of -125 to -175.

There is more but you get the idea. Go with the Orioles on the money line. 

Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles' highly touted young right hander has come into his own in August, pitching 6 innings on average, with a  2.64 ERA and a .187 OP BA in five starts.  He will face a real newbie, The Angels' Rosenberg, with just 2 starts under his belt.  He has given up five runs over seven innings with seven walks.  The Orioles are a tough match-up, hitting in the top five, with a .294 BA/.811 OPS.  The Angels , facing a much tougher starter on Monday, are .238/.738  over the same time period. LA was just swept by the A's, outscored 21-9.  A bullpen struggling to a 7.58 ERA in the last 10 games won't help win many games.  Baltimore is an excellent road team, with a terrific bullpen, fighting to stay tops in the AL East.  This really should be the O's game for the taking. I am wagering on the Orioles to win on the Run line at -1.5.

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games.  They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games.  Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately.  His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season.  Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately.  He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks.  Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately.  The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over.  I expect the same result today.  Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43.  Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today.

Giants' veteran Cobb is off a complete game 1 hit monster of a game, but his other August starts weren't as impressive, pitching for five or six innings with an ERA of 5.35 for the month.  He has had much less success on the road this season.  I am also not a fan of backing a pitcher after a complete game.  Cobb faces Padres' Lugo who has been a steady presence this year.  He had one very poor outing early in August, but has been solid since, giving up two or less runs in his last four starts. The Padres are up 2-1 in their home series.  They are outhitting the Giants by a good margin (.293 BA, .812 OPS L7 compared to .226/.661).  While both pens are about equal, I don't think the Giants will get as many innings from their starter on Sunday.  Take the Padres in a third straight home win.

The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run.  They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week.  Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs.  Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the  Rays this year,  but Tampa needs help with starters.  Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success.  He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total.  
Tampa especially is very good vs right handers.  The Rays should be ultra-focused today to avoid the sweep and will get their chances against Curry.  Bradley is a bit of a question mark, but did not fare well in the earlier season.  I like the Rays and Guardians to put up some runs today, especially early.  Take the total to go over today.

The White Sox lost the series opener last night, but won the previous three meetings, including a start featuring today's pitchers.  Right handed veteran Sox pitcher Clevinger has been tough to score on since returning from the IL at the end of July.  He had a 2.70 ERA in August and has allowed just one run or less in 3 of his last 4 appearances.  Tigers' rookie Reese Olson has had some solid starts this season, but his last three have been under five innings, with some control issues and a 5.96 ERA in August.  The first and fourth innings have really been a struggle for him.  The Cubs are hitting very well lately with a .281 BA/.779 OPS over the last two weeks.  That is much better than the Tigers who are .221/.680 in the same time period.  The Sox' problem is relief pitching,  but the Tigers' relievers have been no better in the last ten games.  Take the White Sox to lead early and hold on for the win.

The Cubs and Reds split their double header on Friday, but I like the Cubs' chances in the third and important game on Saturday.  Right handed Javier Assad a reliever-turned-starter, has looked very sharp in his first five starts.  He has a 2.48 ERA and has delivered 6 innings on average in August.  He will face Reds rookie left hander Abbott who was a phenom in his first starts but has had issues in August.  His starts have been poor and short, with a 6.08 ERA and a .302 OP BA.  The Cubs are above .500 on the road, 7-3 in recent games  and solid against lefties.  Their offense is just average lately, but a sight better than the Reds, who are hitting .212/.581 OPS in the last week.  The Cubs are getting fine results from their bullpen with an ERA roughly half of Cincinnati's relievers over the last week.  Both teams had a bullpen day on Friday, and the Cubs are far more likely to get some quality length from Assad on Saturday.  Take Chicago to steal this one on the road from a struggling Reds team.

Pittsburgh took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals just a few series ago. They have owned St. Louis this year, winning 7 of 10 to date. Now they'll face the Cards on the road as Keller (1.35 ERA/L3 games) faces Hudson (4.58/L3). After a rough July, Keller has been razor sharp in August , seeing his K's rise and hit totals drop. Hudson was roughed up in Philadelphia last time out but was otherwise effective in August. While the 6-4 Pirates have been average on offense (.239 BA/.708 OPS) in the last two weeks, the Cardinals have been skulking down in the basement at 28th (.209/.621 L2 weeks). Their overall pitching has hit a low of 6.40 ERA/L2 weeks with starter and bullpen issues. Here is a curious stat. The Cards are just 3-16 when playing on Friday. Take Pittsburgh to continue their dominance over St. Louis with a road win today.

The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Twins, but they will have their hands full against the surging Rays, especially with Glasnow on the mound. He bounced back from his only truly poor start in 10 appearances with a 1 hit 6 run effort against the Yankees. His OP. BA in August was .182, even including that sub-par outing. He will face Cal Quantrill who has had a lost year in 2023. Starting for the first time since the beginning of July, he didn't pitch well in his early starts, and his rehab outings weren't entirely promising. Tampa is 8-2 L10 games, 18-7 as a road favorite, and sporting a very fine 5.3/2.9 runs for and against in their last 7 games. They've climbed back into the top 5 in offense, with a .297/.855 OPS line over the last two weeks. The Guardians are not hitting well at .228/.675 OPS in the same time frame. Both teams have solid pens, but this game could be decided in the early innings. Take the Rays on the run line at - 1.5.

The Marlins have only scored more than 2 runs twice in 10 games, and those were  3 and  4 run totals. Monday's game features the same pitchers from just five days ago which resulted in the Nationals' 7-4 win.  Adon was very good for Washington in that game, but that has not always been the case in his short tenure. Braxton Garrett starts for Miami.  He has been a solid starter for Miami this season but has given up 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts.  The Nationals have been on a tear in August and have a somewhat more effective offense than Miami's faltering one.  It is hard to know how Adon will respond after such a fine start, but there are few teams who are less of a threat with the bats than Miami.  The Marlins are a bit of an unexpected favorite, which makes the Nationals a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take The Nats, who are an impressive 4-0 on Adon's starts, to keep this one close.  Washington +1.5

The probable starter for the Athletics, Neal, will be starting his 8th game in his 4th season of very sparse appearances (102 innings total).  His stats are what you’d expect with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over 6 appearances (1 start) in August.  He is really being thrown to the wolves here against a Mariners team that is 1st in the majors in avg. and 2nd in OPS who have averaged 8 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games.  Over that same stretch the Athletics have averaged 4 runs/ 9 innings.  That’s a pretty big cushion for a point spread play.

We haven’t even mentioned probable starter Miller for the Mariners who won two games vs. Oakland in May and has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 5 starts. 

Add to that a Mariners team with a 9-1 record over their last 10 and an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head with the Athletics and you have many reasons to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

Probable starter Cease for the White Sox has only averaged 4.1 innings in his last 5 starts.  Over that same stretch his ERA is 8.22 and his WHIP is an abysmal 2.09.  The relievers available for Wednesday have an ERA a full 2 runs higher than the Orioles bullpen.  Although probable starter Gibson has an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.38 over the same stretch, he has managed a 4-1 record, while Cease has stumbled to a 1-3 record.

Over the last 7 games the White Sox have scored 4.1 runs/9 innings and given up 6.0 runs/9 innings while the Orioles have numbers of 5.3 and 3.0 over the same span.  This is a direct result of the White Sox being in the middle of the pack for avg. and OPS over the last 15 days while the Orioles have been in the top ¼ of the majors over the same time span. 

The White Sox’ August (trade deadline sellers) has seen them slip to a 9-16 record while the Orioles (division leaders) August has seen them achieve a 17-8 record.  Wednesday will see more of the same so the clear play is the Orioles. 

The Yankees have not met expectations this season.  But some parts of their game have been pretty good.  Like their bullpen for instance.  Given this is a bullpen game with probable starter King leading the way they should be in a good spot for this game against the Tigers.  In his two most recent starts King has a 1.80 ERA.  The relievers they have available for this one have a combined 2.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08. 

The Tigers counter with lefty Skubal who has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Given the Yankees have the 5th best OPS (17th best avg.) vs. LH starters this season his ERA should go up a few points.  Skubal’s available bullpen has had an 8.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in their last 3 and the available relievers for this one have a 4.55 ERA.

At the plate the Tigers have struggled against RH starters and are in the bottom ¼ of the majors.  Neither team has been very good at the plate lately but pitching should win the day for the Yankees. 

Probable starter Alcantara is a big intimidating force who can sometimes pitch deep into a game and at others needs to be taken out like everyone else.  His biggest problem has been that the Marlins can’t provide run support.  They have averaged 1.9 run/9 innings over their last 7 and have a 3-7 record over their last 10 to show for it.  The fact that they have been 25th in avg. and 24th in OPS over the last 15 days is what leads to this paucity of scoring.

In the other clubhouse the Rays will counter with probable starter Civales who has had a 1.60 ERA over his last 5 starts and a 3-1 record to go with it.  His club has provided 7.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games and sports the 3rd best avg. and 5th best OPS over the last 15 days, so it is no wonder they are scoring at a high rate.  It’s clear what has led to their 8-2 record over their last 10.

Add to all this the Rays 8-2 head-to-head record in the last 10 vs. the Marlins and you have a solid high value play with the Rays.

The Brewers' veteran lefty Miley has put together a solid August.  He doesn't pitch for length but he's allowed just 8 runs total over 20 innings in 4 starts, keeping the Brewers in every game.  He could even get some run support on Monday as the usually light-hitting Brew Crew are tearing it up on offense to the tune of .270 BA/.816 OPS in the last week.  Compare the Cubs down at the 20th position at .249/.703.  Taillon starts for the Cubs. After a dismal start, he put it all together in July but has regressed in August with three straight sub-par starts and an ERA of 6.08 this month.  The Brewers have the better bullpen.
Milwaukee just swept the Padres, Twins and the Rangers and are a good road team.  They're a small underdog on Monday, but I see them destined to a road win.

While the Padres have struggled, the Cardinals at 2-8 are even worse at the moment.  Wainwright, stuck at 198 wins, just can't seem rescue his season.  His ERA is very high in August, an insult to his success and longevity.  Getting 199 today won't be easy as he will square off against one of the best pitchers this year in Blake Snell.  Snell will give you 6 innings on average, with a 2.77 ERA over his last 7 starts.  He has a .194 OP BA over the last two months.  Even if Wainwright should pitch well, there is every chance the Cards won't deliver on offense.  They are hitting a miserable .175/.543 over the last week, dead last in the MLB, and the bullpen has an ugly 6.82 ERA.  The Padres are just barely surpassing St. Louis on offense, but other than in Sunday's game, they have been getting acceptable relief pitching.  Take the Padres to ruin Wainwright's day.  San Diego on the run line at -1.5.

The Mariners are very hot in August, now earning a share of first in their division.  They crushed the Royals last night and were able to rest their top relievers in that game.  Castillo has pitched well this season but especially at home.  He struggled somewhat vs the Royals just a couple of starts ago giving up 4 runs over 7 innings, but based on past performance is a good candidate to improve on that performance.  He'll face Royals' rookie Marsh, who has pitched effectively in his last appearances, including against the Mariners recently.  He has been limited to about 5 innings in length,  allowing plenty of access to the Royals' faulty bullpen.

KC is 9-15 in August and exceptionally poor vs right-handers.  Their offense had a brief period  in the limelight, but has sunk to .200 BA/.651 OPS over the last two weeks.  Runs for and against tells the tale of these two teams.  The Royals are 3.7/6.1 over their last 7 games; the M's are an amazing 9.0/3.7 , reflecting a .327 BA/1.003 OPS line.  Take the Mariners to win by a solid margin at home. Seattle -1.5

Game two of their away series could go sour for the Cardinals team. The Phillies, who have put themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot and who are seeing the ball very well lately (.305 BA/.988 OPS L7days),  are far out-hitting the Cards at .230/.656.  Nola starts for the Phillies.  He has been sharp when pitching at home with an ERA nearly 2 runs less than in away games.  He was terrific last time out and has allowed just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 home starts.  Drew Rom will start just his second MLB game on Sunday.  Game one did not go at all well, and the Phillies likely won't be handing out any brotherly love.  Relief pitching has been a big plus for the Phillies lately.  At 2.73 ERA over the last ten games the Phillies pen has an ERA of half that of their Cards counterparts.  Runs for and against tell the story of these two teams.  The Phillies are a sharp 7.0/4.6 last seven games.  The Cards are 3.1/7.3.  Take the Phillies on the run line on Sunday.

The Cubs have split their road series with the Pirates to date, however they have won their previous 6 straight vs Pittsburgh this year.  With a possible wild card spot on the horizon, they will start right- handed reliever turned starter Assad today.  With just 4 starts under his belt this year, he has a 2.86 ERA while delivering around 6 innings per appearance. He will face Pirates rookie Colin Selby who will likely serve as an opener for a Pirates bullpen day.  Selby's numbers have not impressed.  Since activation in August, he has a 7.27 ERA over 8.2 innings with an ugly 1.96 WHIP.  Chicago is 14-8 in August, and while their offense has slipped a bit, they should get some opportunities today vs the Pirates' relievers.  Pittsburgh is below .500 in August and 22nd in the league vs right-handers .  I am wagering on Assad and the Cubs today, who have all the motivation they need down the stretch.  Take Chicago in a road win.

The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL.  He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance.  He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them.  Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season.  He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month.  He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago.  Both teams have solid bullpens lately.  The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks.  Take Saturday's game to go under the total again.

Two solid veterans start face off in the Padres/Brewers game on Friday.  Darvish has been pretty generous with the hits of late, with a .289 OP BA in August and 8 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. He was much more effective in his previous starts.  Woodruff has just three starts since returning from the IL.  He has held the opposition to a .183 ERA but has given up more runs than expected, allowing 5 home runs in the three starts.
 It is odd to think of the light-hitting Brewers outhitting the Padres but that has been the case in the last two weeks.  The Brewers' pen has been much better with a 2.41 ERA compared to 4.21 fro the Padres in the last 10 games. The 7-3 Brewers have been sharp in August and very good at home this year.  The Padres are poor on the road and 38-48 against right handed pitching.  You won't find a better righty than Woodruff, and really, he is just getting warmed up at this point in his season.  I am on the favorite on Friday.  Take the Brewers to win.

After an absolutely brutal season, Lance Lynn seems to have finally found his form as a Dodger, starting 4 games in August and giving up just 5 runs while holding the opposition to a .189 BA.  He will face Fenway's green monster and Boston's young right hander Cutter Crawford today.  Crawford has also been very solid in August, holding the Yankees to a single hit and run over 6 innings.  Crawford's other August starts have all been of the shorter variety and his ERA in Fenway is nearly 5.95.  The Dodgers are an exceptional 19-3 in August, and a tough 57-30 vs right-handers.  The Red Sox, off a monster victory on Thursday, haven't fared well in interleague action.  Both these teams hit very well, but I am going with Lynn today, who is off a pair of shutout outings,is a serious strikeout artist and will likely pitch longer into the game.  Take the Dodgers to win on the road.

The White Sox are home to the equally hapless A's, starting Thursday. The White Sox are outhitting the A's over the last week by a significant margin; .266/.701 OPS vs .205/.642.  They'll run out RH sometimes-starter rookie Scholtens, who was hit hard in Colorado last time out, but was otherwise effective in his previous three starts.   He'll face  A's lefty Waldichuck who has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just 5 runs total over 18 innings.  This one could be close early but the A's are the worst hitting team vs right-handers in the league, while the Sox hit lefties effectively.  Both bullpens are poor and struggling lately.  This one should come down to the superior offense.  Take the Sox who are surprisingly good (10-5) in the rare games they are a home favorite, to win at home.

The Astros have taken games 1 and 2 of their home series vs the Red Sox.  Can they manage the sweep today?  I believe so, and here is why.  Bello starts for the Sox.  After a terrific May and June, he is pitching for less innings and has struggled more often than not in the last two months, with a .312 OP BA.  France has at least ROY consideration after his season for the Astros.  He has been Mr. Consistency and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a game since July 14th.  Since them, he is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA. 

Boston is just 13-21 on the road, just 10-10 in August, and are giving up more runs than they score this month.  Both teams are hitting well, but the Astros have a significant edge in both average and power over the last two weeks.  Should Bello pitch well, the Astros bullpen ERA is roughly half that of the Sox over the last 10 games.  Take Houston to bring out the broom today.

This should be a pitchers’ duel for the first six innings or so between these two veteran hurlers.  Probable starter for the Mets, southpaw Quintana has been very effective since his return from IR and rehab in late July.  His ERA and WHIP were superlative in August, but he still didn’t get his first win until last week.  He has a tough challenge on tap against the Braves who lead the majors in avg. and OPS against LHPs this season.  Even if he survives, his available bullpen won’t be able to hold the fort against a Braves batting order that is 2nd in avg. and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. 

Over their last 10 against the Mets the Braves are 7-3 and have an average margin of victory of 5.6 runs in each of those wins. 

To add to the Mets’ challenge, they will be facing veteran Morton who has a 2.93 ERA in August and has a solid bullpen available Wednesday, as well as the aforementioned formidable run support.  Lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one.

Probable starter Kirby has pitched some gems lately for the red-hot Mariners including 9 innings of shutout ball (although he did not get a decision against the Orioles in that one) and two other games where he only allowed 1 run.  All this has been over his last 5 outings.  Over his last 3, his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 0.64.

Probable starter Kopech has averaged 4.2 innings pitched and has an ERA of 8.53 over his last 5 starts and in his last 3 starts his WHIP is 1.98 (and his ERA is 9.88). 

Kopech’s team is cold too.  They have the 14th best avg. and the 25th best OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.  In the other dugout the Mariners have the 3rd best avg. and the 2nd best OPS over the last 15 days.  Not surprisingly the Mariners are 15-4 in August while the White Sox are 6-12.  Over the last 7 games the Mariners avg. 3.8 runs more / 9 innings than the Mariners and allow 4.3 less/ 9 innings than the Mariners.  This will make you very comfortable to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

The 4-6 Angels have been badly bitten by the injury bug, and not just in the pitching department.  They are dead last on offense over the last 2 weeks with a .208/.595 OPS line.  Their runs for/against is an unimpressive 3.4/7.6, inflated especially by poor relief pitching.  The Reds have had better offensive stretches but are still significantly better at .231/.696, and are look far more impressive at 4.0/2.9 in runs for/against.  Giolito has had mixed results since joining the Angels with a short blow-out start followed by a pair of reasonable outings.  His high OP BA in August is a concern.  Reds' starter Ashcraft has been steady if unlucky in the wins department with a 2.86 ERA and .190 OP BA  in August. The Rangers are favored today, but are sub-.500 as a home favorite, and outright poor in August.  The Reds have a real shot at the playoffs this year.  Take the Reds to win on the road.

The Dodgers said goodbye to probable starter for the Guardians, Syndergaard,  in late July.  He has had mixed results for his new team, the Guardians, that make for some weak numbers.  In his last 3 starts he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that have led to a 1-2 record.  His time in LA wasn’t much better. 

Rising star. 24-year-old Miller, is the probable starter for the Dodgers.  Lately he has been on fire with a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  On the season he has a deserved 7-2 record. 

The available pitchers from the bullpen have very similar stats for both teams but at the plate there is a big gap between the squads.  In the last 15 days the Dodgers are in the top 3rd of the majors for avg. and OPS while the Guardians are in the bottom 4th for both over the same time period.  For the important OPS stat the Dodgers are 3rd in the majors vs. RHP over the season. 

Lastly the Dodgers have a 17-2 record in August and a 15-5 record vs. teams with a losing record after the all-star break.  The Guardians are 6-12 for August and have a 7-14 record vs. teams with a winning record after the all-star break.  Lay the points and go with Miller and the Dodgers.

The A's were crushed by the Orioles on Sunday, but could bounce back against a much easier match-up in the Royals on Monday.  Sunday's game was a blow-out early, so the A's' best relievers should be available.  Oakland will start Blackburn, likely their most dependable and effective starter, with a 1.93 ERA in August.  He has delivered a quality start more often than not of late and has been good at home.  Royal's reliever Davidson hasn't started this year, so will likely act as the Royals' opener.  He has been hit hard as a reliever in August with a .292 OP BSA and a 5.68 ERA.  The Royals had been hitting well lately but their hot bats have cooled slightly lately.  The A's are just below average on offense in their last 7 games.  It is hard to get excited about either team, but blackburn is definitely a step up from a Royals' bullpen day.   Oakland should take a lead into the late innings, and their pen is as effective as the Royals.  take the A's to win at home.

The Phillies hammered the Nationals last night, beating up on Washington's bullpen.  The Phillies are leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, and face a right-hander who has an ERA of 7.44 in his last seven starts.  Short starts and lots of earned runs is the line on Williams these days.  He'll square off with the Phillies ace Wheeler, who has been very sound lately.  He beat the Nats in a 6 inning 3 run start just 10 days ago. Wheeler has been more effective on the road this season.  
We are heading into the stretch and every game matters for the Phillies at this point.  The Nats have impressed lately but they are out-classed in starters and out-gunned on offense on Sunday.  Add in decent relief pitching, a rarity for the Phillies in the last few seasons, and you have a recipe for a run line victory.  Take the Phillies at -1 1/2.

White Sox' right hander Dylan Cease has looked just fine in his last two starts, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings.  It hasn't been an easy season for the White Sox ace, but he has been sharp more often than not lately.  Meanwhile Flexen has struggled to a 7.78 ERA in his last seven starts, including 9 runs in 11 innings pitched in his last two appearance.  Neither team has fared well in August, however the Rockies have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of this series. Really, the teams are about even as far as the numbers go but the White Sox have much the superior starter on Sunday.  It will be "Cease and desist" as far as the Rockies' recent run riot goes.  Look for the White Sox to salvage something from the series with a road win on Sunday

The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games.  Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee.  Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers.  He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings.  He has been much better in away games this season.  The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers.  Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks.  The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5.  I like the under in this game as well.  Look for a very low total in the early going.  Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total .

The Brewers are just 3 games above .500 on the road this year.  They barely held on for a win against the powerhouse Rangers last night in Game One of the road series.  Texas runs out Dane Dunning today.  He has had a fine year for the Rangers, and hasn't faded down the stretch at all.  In his last three starts he has given the Rangers innings (20+), low ERs (5 total) and K's (29).  He is 6-1 at home this year.  Brewers starter Peralta has been equally good lately, although he hasn't been quite as effective when pitching on the road.  It is a different story on offense.  The Brewers, never a strong offensive team, clocked in at .229/.663 OPS in the last two weeks.  The Rangers stood 4th at .256/.802.  Texas is 12-4 in August and 19-13 as a home favorite.  Yesterday aside, they have been getting good results from their relievers.  Given their superior offense, I'm wagering on the Rangers to bounce back and win today.

Off a pair of losses the Orioles will look to rebound on Friday vs the A's.  Right hander Gibson starts, after his worst appearance of the year.  He has been generally very successful this season and allowed three or less runs in his four previous starts while pitching at least six innings per game.  He will face the A's Medina who has started to show some promise after a rough start.  He has been limited to just seven+ runs total in his last two starts.  There in lies the problem. The A's bullpen is the worst in the league this season.  By comparison, the O's have a top ten pen this year.  The A's are 3-7, a poor 8-18 as a home underdog, and league-last against right-handed pitching.  I like the Orioles to get back on track.  The only concern is Gibson's poor last outing.  In the past he has been up and down.  Take the Orioles, a favorite to win.

Two of August's top producing teams square off in game one of the Astros home series vs Seattle.  JP France, an unlikely but possible ROY, has allowed 3 or less runs in 11 of his last 12 appearances winning five straight games.  He will face Seattle's rookie righty Miller, who has been exceptional at times this season, but with the odd very poor outing (two in his last four starts) thrown in.  He has been difficult to score on in his last two starts with a pair of five inning one run outings.  His ERA is nearly two runs higher when pitching on the road.  Both teams have top ten offenses in recent weeks , although the Astros have the advantage; .297/.879 OPS vs Seattle's .265/824 OPS.  The Mariners have been getting their usual steady relief pitching, but the Astro's bullpen has been superb of late.  Houston is tough to beat at home, probably a difference maker on Friday.  Take the Astros to win a close one.

With D-backs ace right-hander Gallen pitching very well lately, including six innings of shutout ball vs today's opponent, it would be tough to wager against him.  It was his second shutout appearance in three starts.  Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 after a woeful start to August.  They are tough on lefties this year, and will face a struggling one today.  Hill, who has had some good moments this year, has faltered as a Padre.  Perhaps his age is showing as he has an 8.72 ERA over his last three games, with just one start of his last four reaching five innings.  The Padres are 3-7, still aren't hitting up to expectations. (.251/.708 OPS L14 days), and aren't hitting right-handers well.  The Arizona offense has surged to a .281/.845 line, good for fifth in the league over the last week.  While I don't like the D-backs bullpen, Gallen gives them  far more quality innings than Hill is likely to.  Take the D-backs to take this one on the road.

The Mets have won 3 of 4 games, an improvement since their post-deadline collapse.  Quintana has pitched well for them lately, giving up just 1 and 2 runs over 6 innings per to stiff competition in his last two starts.  He' has been very unlucky or unsupported since his return in mid-July.  He will face Adam Wainwright , who is definitely showing his age.  The Cardinals have won just one of his last six starts, and he has gone over three innings just a single  time.  The Cards' pen is better than the Mets', but there will be a bunch of innings to cover if Wainwright's start goes south again.  St. Louis had the top OPS in baseball last week while the Mets are improving at least, hitting .747 OPS/ L7 days.  As bad as the Mets' relievers have been I still like their chances on Thursday.  Look for NY to get ahead early and hold on for the win.

Probable pitcher Abbott for the Reds seems to be a charm for his team as they have a 10-3 record when he starts.  Probable starter Syndergaard for the Guardians seems to have the opposite effect on his team (which was the Dodgers before the trade deadline) as his team’s record is 5-10 when he starts.  Syndergaard was also shelled the last game he pitched against the Reds (for the Dodgers) as he gave up 6 ERs over 3 innings.

Add to this the fact that the Guardians are 29th in avg. and 30th (dead last) in the majors against LHP.  The Reds are in the top half of the majors vs RHP. 

And don’t forget, the Guardians are 6-13 against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The Reds are 8-5 against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  Lay the points and take the high value bet for the Reds in this one.

These two teams look way different after the trade deadline.  Probable pitcher Oviedo is on the Pirates because of the trade deadline and as of late has been very effective.  In his last 3 starts he has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on a struggling Pirates team.  In his last start against the Mets he lost but this is a very different Mets team than the one he lost to.   Megill has had a whopping 9.00 ERA since his post trade deadline recall from the minors. 

Available pitchers from the Pirates bullpen have an ERA almost a full run lower than the available pitchers in the Mets bullpen.

In their last 7 the Pirates average more than a run more for/9 innings than the Mets and 0.8 runs less against/9 innings than the Mets.

With Oviedo rounding into form since the end of July and Megill struggling to find his form since his recall August 5th,  this is a fine pick to go with the Pirates.

Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball.  That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once.  But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous.  Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs.  Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late.  His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96.  In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06.

At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS.  The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief.  In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. 

The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10.  This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total.

Both probable starters for the Yankees and Braves have struggled as of late.  Severino for the Yankees has been in a funk beyond compare though and it makes Elder’s recent dip look palatable.  A 13.05 ERA for August backs onto an 11.22 ERA for July and his WHIP over his last 3 starts is north of 2.00.  Elder has had a tough August too but his ERA over his last 3 starts is almost half the size of Severino’s.

Add to this the majors’ leading avg. and OPS over the last 15 days compiled by the Braves and their mastery of RHP all season where again they lead the majors in avg. and OPS and you have the makings of an ugly outing for Severino and the Yankees.  The Yankees are 29th in avg. and 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year (although they have been middle of the pack overall over the last 15 days).

In terms of runs for/9 innings the Braves have averaged almost double what the Yankees have.  It’s a pretty confident play to lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. 

You won't get a Rays/Glasnow start at a better price than this line, especially considering it is most likely a bullpen day for the Giants.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings in his last three starts.  He was AL Pitcher of the Month in July.  The Giants' Walker is a solid reliever but hasn't pitched more than 3 innings this year, so it is over to a struggling bullpen after that. The Giants broke out for a win on Sunday, on the back of an 8 inning start by Webb, but are presently 29th in the league in OPS, and have a tough time putting wins together. The Rays are hitting reasonably well, and are solid off a loss.  Glasnow has averaged less than 2 runs an outing in his last 7 starts.  Take The Rays, 16-6 as a road favorite, to win today.

The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games.  Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games.  Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start.  His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings.  He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year.  He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season.  None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season.  The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester.  The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor.  Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total.

The 9-1 Rangers have it all at the moment, with a fine 5.3/2.6 runs for and against line.  They have allowed 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games, and have the bullpen operating on all cylinders lately.  The Giants have lost 6 of 7 games including the last two to the Rangers.  Their offense sunk to a .201 BA/ .590 OPS line the last week.  They are favored today but only because Webb is on the mound.  Webb has been very consistent and usually delivers solid inning numbers, with great control.  The Giants' bullpen has not been as sharp of late, and they are hitting right-handed pitching to the tune of just .177 in the last 10 days.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  Off a very successful season, his ERA crept up to 5.06 in the month of July, but he has recovered in August, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings with a .167 OP BA.

As good as Webb can be, you still have to score runs to win games.  Dunning has been an effective starter; one whom the Giants have never faced.  With the Rangers having the much superior offense and the more productive pen  in recent games., I still like the underdog to come through today.  Take Texas to win and finish the sweep.

After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today.  Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control.  Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings.  The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week.  The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately.  They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter.  Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series.  Play the Under today!

After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

The Royals hammered the Cardinals on Friday.  We will likely see less runs  in Saturday's game with two solidly performing lefties squaring off.  Matz has been very consistent in his last appearances, allowing just 2 runs in 4 starts while averaging 6 innings per appearance.  Royals' rookie Ragans has similar numbers since returning to line up, also averaging 6 innings per appearance, and giving up just a pair of runs in his last three starts.  He has 19 K's in his last two games!  The Royals cashing 12 runs on Friday is not such a surprise; they are second in both BA (.295) and OPS (.851) over the last two weeks.  The Cards have been pretty average  (14th) in the same time frame.  Both teams are hovering around .500 in August.  The Cards are a heavy favorite, making the run line look very appealing considering considering Ragans' and the Royals offensive performances.  Take KC at +1 1/2.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Tigers continued to struggle against the Red Sox in game one of their away series. Their right -hander Manning has also struggled lately, with far too many hits and over a run an inning allowed in his last three starts.  Opposing batters are hitting him at a .327 clip in August.  Bello, the Sox' young right-hander starts for today.  Bello saw his ERA creep up in July after a long stretch of quality starts.  He bounced back last time out with a fine 6+ inning effort, allowing just a single run.  He has consistently pitched better at Fenway than away this season.   Boston is tough to beat at home and tougher on right handed pitching than Detroit (.260 vs .231 BA.)  The Sox are 12-5 vs. sub .500 teams in the second half.  I like Bello's chances today.  Detroit has never faced the youngster. Look for Boston to win their fourth straight game.  Take the Sox on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix.  They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past.  However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday.  Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston.  With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers.  Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently.  In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average.  Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's.  While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts.  The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games.  Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close.  Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Pirates, buoyed by a series spit with the Braves and a series win over the Brewers, are home to the 2 -8 Reds on Friday.  Two good young pitchers start.  Abbott, the Reds' lefty has impressed this season.  He has pitched 70 innings in just two months and it might be starting to show, as his last two appearances have been poor, allowing 10 runs in just 9 innings pitched.  Oviedo has been the reverse.  He has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just 2 runs in his last 20 innings pitched.  He has had good support from the Pirates' pen in his last starts, winning all three games.  It is the Reds' bullpen that has really struggled lately, accumulating a massive 7.65 ERA L10.  The Pirates surprisingly have the edge on offense as well in recent action; .246 BA/.794 OPS compared to .203/.654 OPS.  The Reds are a streaky team and it appears that a bit of the wind has gone out of their young sails of late.  I like the Pirates, an underdog, to win this game outright.

The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience.  Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies.  Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed.  In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER.

Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA.

Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate.   Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS.  They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors.  The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS.  Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44.  The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. 

To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings.  That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.