The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.

Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.

The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.

The Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, despite showing so well as a rookie, is off to a poor start: 2 game started, 6+innings total pitched, 12.15 ERA. Sophomore jinx or slow start? Pitching mechanics appear to be involved, so maybe no quick fix?

The Braves are starting Kyle Wright for the third time. Wright broke through in the playoffs last year, and followed that success with a fine start in 2022. He has 2 wins, a 1.64 ERA and a ton of strike-outs. The Braves’ bull pen is middling at the moment; advantage goes to the Marlins in relief.

While the Braves batters haven’t really found their form, I have more faith in their bats than the Marlins for offense. Wright is coming in to this game full of confidence. Look for him to have another fine outing. I am wagering on Atlanta to win.

St Louis starter Matz’s ERA still looks ugly; it will take more than a game or two to average out that poor first start. His second start gets top marks, and I think he will carry on well from there.

He will match up against the Reds’ young phenom, Hunter Greene. He has started twice this year with mixed results. The positives are: 10+ innings pitched, 13 strikeouts. The negatives: 6 runs given up, of 9 hits total, 3 were home-runs. Greene has the Reds’ last win. They have lost 9 straight times since. They’ve scored just 13 runs in 8 games and in addition to struggling batters, the Reds have a poor bullpen as well.

The Cards are off to a fine start with quality starting pitching, solid hitting, and a very hot catcher. They also have the league’s 2nd best bullpen ERA. I think the Reds’ third win will have to wait a while. Take the Cards, on the road, to win.

Carrasco starts for the Mets. 2021 was a lost year for him, and he didn’t show well in the spring, but was lights out in his first two starts, lasting 5 + innings in each game and giving up only one run in total.

The Mets and Giants are presently 1st and 2nd in both team and relief pitching this year, so no real advantage there, however the Mets’ rebuilt offense is playing significantly better than the Giants’ so far. Off a loss, but ahead in the series 2-1, I like Carrasco and the Mets’ chances on Thursday. They are playing at home and are hitting for power and average at the moment. Descianfani has yet to prove himself this spring. It could be close, but take the Mets to win.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease broke out last year, was great in the spring, and has been equally strong in his first two starts. He has a pair of 5 inning, 1 run, 8 strikeout victories to date. He is up against the Guardians’ Zack Plesac. Plesac’s first start was a 5 inning gem but he gave up a couple of runs on home runs in his second. Oddly, Plesac also faced the White Sox in his third start last year, and was roughed up.

The Guardians are just about “top of the bops” this year, leading in RBIs. The White Sox are down the list at 25th. Where the Sox have the edge is in the bullpen, with lower ERA and 5 saves to the Guardians’ one. Off a pair of losses to Cleveland, look for the Sox to work extra hard to avoid the sweep. While both bullpens have bee successful in the first two games, I like the Sox’ ability to finish. Count on Cease to move the dial back towards win. Take the Sox to rebound.

Ageless Charlie Morton looked good in the spring and in his first start, but blew a tire in the second. An off game? Probably, but worth noting. The 5-7 Braves’ start has been just OK to date, and as one would expect, that goes for their hitting, and bull pen. They are on the road and up against the 8-2 Dodgers, a hot team with a definite chip on their collective shoulder. Gonsolin starts for LA, also up to start #3; He was good in his first start, and even better in his second. He hasn’t pitched many innings to date, but he does have that fine Dodgers’ bullpen to back him up.

The Dodgers are at home, outhitting the Braves, have better relievers and will be super-motivated . They ran into a tough pitcher in Max Fried on Tuesday, and will be wanting payback. Take Gonsolin and the Dodgers in this one.

The White Sox have started strongly despite the loss of three top pitchers. After the day’s delay Keuchel will start the first half of a double header for the Sox. Keuchel was steady in his first start, lasting five innings, giving up 3 runs, with 5 strikeouts. He had a rough 2021, but is only a year away from a very good season. The Sox’ pitching has been solid in relief, but their offense is just low to mid-pack so far.

Keuchel is up against the Guardians’ ace Shane Bieber. Two starts in, Bieber has impressed, lasting 10 innings and giving up just 3 runs. Cleveland started well, but was just swept by the Giants, so it will be up to Bieber to adjust the dial back to WIN. The Guardians offense is 3rd ranked at the moment. Cleveland’s bats didn’t show well against the Giants’ fine starters, but have more of a chance vs. Keuchel on Tuesday. Take Bieber and the Guardians to win.

The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.

The  road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.

Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against.  Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.

The 2-8 Reds are presently sitting 29th and 30th in team pitching and hitting respectively. The Padres aren’t off to the best of starts but are mid-pack or better in the same categories. Padres starter and recent pick-up Sean Manea has two starts under his belt. One was very good and the other was remarkable; 7 innings of shutout ball.

He faces promising Reds youngster Nick Lodolo, who bombed in his MLB debut, lasting 4 innings with very mixed results. Lodolo won’t be on a very long leash, which is bad news for the Reds as the relievers have struggled.

The Reds are on a sizable losing streak with just one of their eight losses being close. Manaea will likely pitch long if his first two starts are anything to go by, and he is not the starter that a struggling team wants to face. I think the Padres will win this one handily, lighting up the Reds pen if not Lodolo. I am a bit gun-shy of the spread after tanking twice on Sunday. Take the Padres to win.

33 to 0! Those numbers are the respective ERAs of Sunday’s starters at this point in the season. A’s starter Adam Oller had his MLB debut fall apart after just 1+ innings. Expect better results the second time around, but he will face a very tough Blue Jays lineup off a loss.

Young Jays starter Manoah was the real thing last year, and appears to be in good form now if his first start is anything to go by. While the other Jays starters have struggled, Manoah and the bullpen have been solid. Manoah went six innings the first time out, so he may not need that much help.

The As have been over-achieving so far this year, and their bats have actually out-paced the Blue Jays to date. Don’t count on this continuing on Sunday. I very much doubt their success against Manoah. Take the Jays –1 1/2

The Yankees are tops in team pitching at the moment. Sundays’ starter Nestor Cortes shut down the potent Blue Jays lineup, giving up just 3 hits in 4+ innings. He is off an eye-opening 2021, and looks to continue this season. Backed by a scorching Yankees bullpen, don’t expect a ton of runs from Orioles’ bats on Sunday.

Zimmerman starts for the Orioles. He missed a chunk of time last year, and had a rough spring, but was strong in his first start. The Orioles relief corps can’t match the Yankees bullpen.

The 2-5 Orioles’ team batting average is sitting at a buck ninety-nine at the moment, good for 27th in the league. While the Yankees’ offense has not quite hit its stride, it is 12th and climbing, and it really is just a matter of time before a break-out. With their division as tight as it is expected to be, the Yanks can’t afford losses against the Orioles, even at this point in the season. Take New York to win – 1 ½.

 The Rangers' start has not been promising, and so far, pitching has been the culprit.  Hearn, a sometimes-starter last year, gave Texas a quality start, but it lasted just 4 innings.  It is what happens after the Rangers starter leaves today that is concerning.  The Rangers are last in the league in team pitching so far.

The Angels are sitting at .500, with a strong 7th rated offense.  Syndergaard starts for the 2nd time.  He did his part in his first start witha dominant outing.  The Angels' relief has not been terrific, but is at least better than the Rangers, and Old Noah will likely pitch further into the game than Hearn.

I am on the side of the good guys today.  Take the Angels to win.

After a lost year in 2021, Carrasco pitched adequately in spring and superbly in his first start. A healthy Carrasco would be a huge plus for the Mets, especially considering their present starter injuries.

After a couple of strong seasons, Zac Galen also had a rough time last year, pitching ineffectively around injury sessions. He started late this spring, so call him a question mark early in the season, and don’t expect too many innings from him.

The Mets are getting very effective relief and plenty of offense, especially in their last three games. They blew out the Diamondbacks on Friday. While it likely will be a closer game, the weak-hitting D-backs won’t have an easy time against Carrasco. Take the hometown Mets to win outright..

Phillies starter Zach Eflin didn’t play in 2021, but looks very promising so far after a strong spring and a fine 1st start this season. He is up against Pablo Lopez, who also has started the season well, and has shown improvement each year.

Two very good pitchers will likely be effective in the early innings. The difference on Friday lies in the offense. The Phillies are sitting 6th in the MLB at the moment, the Marlins, 29th. The Fish have scored just 9 runs in their last 4 games, losing 3 of them. Look for the underdog Phillies to flex their offensive muscle in the later innings and steal this game. Phillies to win outright.

The Mets have started well with very good pitching and solid hitting so far. The Diamondback's pitching has been OK but hitting has been at a league low. Bassitt was overpowering for the Mets in his first start, lasting 6 innings of shut-out ball.  D-backs' pitcher Davies allowed 2 runs with 3 walks but didn't get much support.

The Mets' improved offense will help to avoid those low scoring loss as per last year.  All 5 of their wins have been by 2 runs or more.  The Diamondbacks have scored just 15 runs in 6 games, and it won't get any easier against Bassitt.  Take the Mets - 1 1/2.  They should be good for the runs.

It is Wainwright vs Woodruff in what should be a great pitchers’ duel. Should, depending if Woodruff can recover from his very rough first start. Wainwright was business as usual first time around, continuing to defy age.

The Brewers are a significant favorite on Friday, and I can’t see it. St Louis has started well, are at home, has solid pitching and lots of pop. The Brewers have yet to show that they have improved their under-gunned offense. If you want to be cautious, take the Cardinals + 1 ½, but an out and out victory would not surprise me.

Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.

The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under

The White Sox are off to a solid 3-1 start but will be in tough against the Mariners on Wednesday. Keuchal starts for the Sox in a bit of a pitching mismatch. He is off a rough 2021 campaign and an equally rough spring training. He is up against premier lefty Robbie Ray. Ray started the season just as he left off last year with a dominant 7 inning start in the Mariners’ opener.

Seattle started the season well but dropped their last two games. They haven’t scored much yet, but they may not need to with Ray on the mound. The odds are favorable considering the pitching match-up. Take the Mariners to win.

Hendricks and the Cubs knocked off the Brewers on opening day after a fine start from their ace. The Cubs are off to a good start, winning the series against the Brewers, and taking their first game from the Pirates.

Pirates starter Zach Thompson also looked good in his first start. Although prone to some wildness, Thompson pitched to a good ERA last year, and showed well in spring. The Pirates did not win for Thompson last year and are not off to a good start this year. They scored a ton of runs against Matz in their sole win, but have been limited to just 3 runs in their other 3 games.

The Cubs do tend to win when Hendricks is on the mound. They found enough offense to win 2of 3 against a tough Astros pitching staff. The Cubs are a slight favorite on Wednesday, and rightly so. Take the Cubs to win again vs the Pirates.

Young Phillies starter Suarez did everything asked of him last year and looks like a future star, however he had a very limited spring due to visa issues and may be on a short leash this early in the season. The Phillies did some very necessary work on their disaster of a bull pen, but it remains to be seen if it can be enough of a support for Phillies starters. Offensively, the Phillies have power to spare, so they should be competitive in the NL East.

They begin a home series as a favorite against the Mets, the projected leader of their division on Monday. Taijuan Walker starts for New York. Walker was excellent until the All star break, then he fell fast and hard. He too has had a short spring, and may also be limited in innings. While both teams have started well, I still have more faith in the Mets’ bullpen. New York’s rebuilt star-studded offense will give the Phillies a run.  Look for the Mets to keep it close. Take New York +1 1/2.

Monday's A's/Rays matchup pits Blackburn vs. Patino.  Blackburn has been a part-time starter with an unheralded career and a high ERA.  He has not broken any records this spring.  The A's sold the farm and are in fulltime rebuild mode, so any game against the Rays is a bit of a mismatch.  If the A's are going to beat the Rays, it won't likely be with Blackburn starting.

The Rays are off to a good start to no-one's surprise, due in no small part to their bevy of young tough pitchers.  Patino is another promising righty who showed well last year.  In limited action, he has performed well this spring.

The A's are likely still in shock mode with all of the recent changes.  Look for the home-town Rays to wear them out on Monday.  Take the Rays - 1 1/2.

The Cardinals had a very strong spring and have rolled it right into the new season against the Pirates They’ve outscored the Pirates 15-2 in their first two games. This is a solid veteran-lead team with much expected of them. Steve Matz starts on Sunday. Matz turned things around last year and put up the best season of his career. He could be a fine pick-up for St. Louis. While he hasn’t had the best of springs, I am looking for him to carry last year’s success into 2022.

Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates. He has struggled in his 6 year career, with a weakness for walks and home runs. He has had high strike-outs this spring, but a very poor ERA.

Any success the Pirates have will likely come later in the season as young talent gains experience. Look for the Cardinals to take advantage of a somewhat unformed team in the early stages of the season. Take St Louis – 1 ½.

The White Sox/Tigers match-up features 2 very fine young pitchers, Kopech for the Sox and Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal pitched a ton of innings for a youngster, and had some very good months in 2021. The Lefty has had a very dominant spring.

Kopech spent most of 2021 in the bullpen will just a handful of starts. We will see how he adapts to this new role, but he definitely has the right stuff. He hasn’t shown well this spring.

Detroit and Chicago split their first two games. The Tigers have managed to score late and keep things close. The White Sox are a favorite on Sunday, But I am on Skubal and the Tigers. Take Detroit +1 ½.

The Mets spoiled the party for the Nationals in days 1 and 2. Chris Bassitt starts for NY on Saturday. He was a great pickup and a consistent performer who threw well this spring.

The Nationals Adon is a promising youngster with just one game of experience in the bigs from last year. The Verdict on Adon is ‘good stuff but wild”. He has struggled this spring with a very high ERA.

The Mets’ new and improved offense has shown up in games 1 and 2, but not so the Nationals'. Look for a strong outing from Bassitt. If Adon’s wildness continues then he won’t last long and the Nats’ bullpen has not shown well this spring. I really like the Mets’ chances for three straight. Take the Mets to win outright.

The Twins lost their opener in a pitchers’ duel. They’ll be all in for a win in Game Two. Minnesota rolls out Sonny Gray, a solid veteran pick-up this season. Gray is a workhorse and a better than average starter who has had a limited but solid spring.

Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert. He had some very good outings down the stretch last year, but his spring has been rough. Of note, this second year pitcher also started slowly last year. The rest of the Mariners’ pitching staff and the Twins staff have had solid springs. These two teams will likely prove to be evenly matched competitors this season. Gilbert may be the difference on Saturday. The Twins have plenty of potential offense this year. Tomorrow may be the day it starts to show. Take the Twins to get to the Mariners’ starter early and win outright.

Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.

The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.

The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.

The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year.  Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.

Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.

It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total.   A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say.  Take this game to go over.

The Mets’ top 2 pitchers are on the injury list, leaving Megill as the unexpected season opener. Megill has pitched well this spring, and the rest of the pitching staff has been as good as any team’s in the early going.

Corbin starts for the Nationals. His 0.00 ERA for spring training doesn’t quite tell the whole story(unearned runs!) but he has pitched well. Let us not forget the Corbin of last year and the year before. A return to form could be possible, but I will have to see it to believe. The Nationals’ staff ERA has been in the sixes so far this spring.

While spring training wins and losses don’t really mean much, the Nationals have struggled, the Mets are at .500. I expect the Mets to lose some of their “low scoring” label of last year, with a very promising power surge expected. The Nationals are still a one trick pony as far as offense goes, and haven’t added significantly. Look for the Mets to start on the right foot and take their opener.

The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.

The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.

Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.

Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62)

As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief.

I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest.

The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides.

I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over.

Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter.

The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue.

The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested.

Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest?  Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers?  Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings.

This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under.

Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon)

With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history.

Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday.

Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4.

The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday.

Cubs (Davies, 6-11, 5.40) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.25)

The Brewers are comfortably aligned for the post-season, with very good starting pitching and a very sharp bullpen. All they need now is to jump-start their recently sluggish bats. Today’s game might be that opportunity.

The Cubs’ bats have been hot lately, but that hasn’t translated into wins. At 4-6, and 20 games out, they are just playing out the season at this point. Cubs starter, Zack Davies has been a workhorse this season and had a couple of quality starts in August, but has since struggled. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.76 in his last three starts. Supported, or not supported by a bullpen with an ERA of 6.00, pitching an unsustainable 4.25 innings per game of late, this does not bode well for their chances today. Add to this a 27-44 road record.

Brewers starter Adrian Houser is on the mound today for the Brewers. Houser, a real success story for the Brewers, had a rough start three outings ago, but in his last two starts has given up 0 runs over 15 innings. He has had great support this season with a team record of 16-7 with him on the mound. I mentioned that the brewers’ pen was sharp. How does an ERA of 0.67 L7 sound? The Brewers are a solid home team and 71-42 vs right-handers.

The odds for the Brewers are very favorable.Take the Brewers, - 1 1/2. They are worth the extra runs today.

Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02)

This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start.

These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under.

White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha)

The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise?

Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support.

These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching.

I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total.

Since finding a home field at last, the Jays are on a tear at 8-1. Combine this with Boston’s slump (1-7 last 8), and it sets up an uncommon situation for this year; that of Boston as an underdog. Eovaldi is pitching for the Red Sox, and other than his last start, has been very good. The Sox haven’t been especially supportive; though he is 9-6, the team record with him pitching is only 11-10.

Alek Manoah starts for the Jays. At 3-1, 2.47, Manoah has been a real eye-opener for the Jays. For a youngster, he is feisty and very confident. And why not? In his last three starts, he has gone 17+ innings and given up only 2 ER. He has also had run support in his rookie season. The Jays are 6-3 in his starts.

If Boston’s recent record is alarming, how they are losing is doubly so. A case in point is yesterday’s pummeling in Detroit. Many of these losses have lopsided affairs. Their relief efforts have been uncharacteristically poor from a highly-regarded pen. The Blue Jays’ inferior bullpen has been a thorn in the side all season, but the Jays made efforts to remedy this at the trade deadline. Boston more or less stood pat.

While the Red Sox have a potent offense, they pale at the moment compared to the Jays. There are very few rest spots in this formidable juggernaut’s lineup. While Boston is a very good road team, their recent woes are more significant. I like Manoah and the Jays today. Take the Jays, a favorite, to win outright.

New York Mets (Walker) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Brubaker)

The Pirates are winners of two straight against the Mets. In Sundays match-up, Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.50) faces off against J.T. Brubaker (4-9, 4.47) and hopes to stop the bleeding for the Mets. Walker has been very sharp, giving up only 5 earned runs in his last three starts. He has been particularly strong against right-handed batters, with an ERA of 2.16.

Brubaker has been spiraling in the wrong direction. The loser of three straight, the Pirates are only 4-12 when he is on the mound. Adding to this is a Pirates bull pen, average at best, and very poor over the last seven games.

Both teams are light-hitting, but the Mets have thrived on right handed pitching (38-25) while the Pirates have struggled (28-41). The Pirates’ home record is nothing to brag about either.

My wager

I think the buck stops with Walker. He has been as dominant as any pitcher of late, and has had plenty of run support. Brubaker is heading sideways, and the Pirates‘ relievers cannot be counted on to back him up. Take the Mets -1.5.

The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven. 

My wager? Take the OVER

LA Dodgers (Walker Beuhler) vs. Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers)

Beuhler (8-1, .90 WHIP) is pitching for LA today and I don’t think he will be taking the day off. He is a consummate starter, giving the Dodgers innings pitched, wins, and consistency every start, whether home or away, or day or night.

Twenty three year old Trevor Rogers may be well on his way to that kind of success. He is 7-5 (on an inferior team) with an ERA of 2.14. In his last start, he had some control issues, but still only gave up 2 runs on 2 hits.

The Dodgers are 11-5 with Beuhler on the mound: Marlins only 8-8 when Rogers is pitching. Beuhler averages at least an inning longer in his starts. Dodgers’ bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the last 7 games. Miami’s blew a tire on Independence Day.

The wager

The Dodgers have too much going in all categories against the Marlins. Take the Dodgers to win. They are worth the money.

The set-up: The Dodgers won this game here last night by a score of 3-2 and I expect another really tight affair here as well. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. For me, the starting pitchers are completely even. Honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to win here. Kevin Gausman is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA for San Fran, while Walker Buehler is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA for LA.

The pick: San Francisco is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a one run road loss to an opponent. I think the outright win is absolutely possible, but in the end I'm going to hammer the Giants on the run-line.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE COACHES CORNER on the Giants.

The set-up: Obviously, the Astros are the better team. However, I think the stage is set for a closer game than what this insane moneyline price would suggest. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but I do think the hungry Orioles can keep it competitive. The visiting side goes with Tom Eshelman (0-1, 7.27 ERA) who was crushed by these very Astros last week for six runs and striking out only one over four innings. Previous to that in his debut he looked good in holding the hard-hitting Jays to one run over five innings. I think Eshelman settles down here, and actually benefits in having already seen the Astros line-up.

The pick: Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.56), gave up one run and struck out four over 7.1 innings in a victory over these very Orioles last Tuesday. Greinke's been great this year, but note, while he's 5-0 with a 2.07 ERA on the road, he's just 3-2 with a 5.27 ERA at home. This one is going to be decided late, so let's take the visitors on the spread option tonight.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Orioles.

The set-up: The Giants won last night and I think they're going to come out fired up here and find a way to do it again. Alex Wood (6-3, 4.09 ERA) is coming off a crummy start for the Giants, but I still love him here over confirmed "gas can" Frankie Montas 7-7, 4.79) for the A's. Montas was lit up in his last outing and he's struggled on the road.

The pick: San Francisco is also 7-2 in its last nine after shutting out its opponent in a home victory in its last outing. Considering the circumstances, I think we're getting an excellent price here on the home side.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Giants.

The set-up: I think the Pirates have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. That said, I'll lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs on the "run line" option. The Cards have lost three straight and they face Chad Kuhl (1-4, 5.66 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run over six innings and striking out four in a victory over the Indians. 

The pick: Kuhl has struggled, but I think he can build off his last performance and get the better of his counterpart Carlos Martinez (3-8, 6.62), who most recently got shelled for eight runs over three innings in a loss to the Braves. Martinez has now been rocked for at least five runs in three of his last four outings. I think Kuhl on the RUN LINE is the correct call here.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Pirates.

The set-up: The Rockies lost a tight 2-1 affair here last night in the opener. They've now dropped three straight. This is a pitching matchup which favors the visitors though. Despite German Marquez (5-6, 4.26 ERA) struggling on the road this season, he comes in on top form, most recently going six shutout innings against the Brewers on Thursday. It was his fifth quality start out of his last six trips to the hill and he now owns an 82/39 K/W over 82.1 innings of work. 

The pick: Justus Sheffield (5-6, 5.65) got destroyed for seven runs over five innings in a loss to Minnesota on Wednesday. He's been rocked for at least two home runs in three straight starts. I say at this price, Marquez is the correct call.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Rockies.

The set-up: Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA) gave up five runs over four innings against San Diego on Wednesday. Over 20.2 innnings, he has a poor 2.27 WHIP and 12/11 K/W. Clearly, the only way Freeland can go is "up" from here. That said, the sample size is still way too small at this point and he draws a favorable matchup here against this poor Seattle offense.

The pick: Chris Flexen (6-3, 4.12) comes in off a great start, going eight scoreless against the Twins. Of concern though is that he has just 44 strikeouts over 67.2 innings of work. I don't trust either starter, but believe that Freeland's "upside" is where the value lies here. 

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Rockies.

The set-up: 17 losses in a row for the Diamondbacks. As bad as a team is, when a losing streak gets as long as this (and the same goes for a winning streak), it becomes unrealistic to continue much longer. The Diamondbacks have been playing hard of late though and I believe they're in line to finally break this string of futility. Off a 9-8 loss here last night to the Dodgers, Merrill Kelly (2-7, 5.40 ERA) will get the nod for the home side. He's off a loss to the Giants, but note that he's been better at home with a 3.99 ERA, than on the road with a 6.71 ERA.

The pick: Brett Anderson (2-4, 4.24) is off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Reds, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. He had nine strikeouts, which was a season-high. Previous to that he'd not struckout more than four in any start though. Also note, while he's 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA at home, he's just 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA on the road. If not now, WHEN for the Diamondbacks! I'm standing in front of this train and say that this streak ends here and now!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: I like Detroit to bounce back in the finale of this four-game series, while I think LA will have a letdown after winning the first three. Previous to losing three straight, the Tigers had won three in a row. Detroit has to be feeling confident sending Casey Mize (4-4, 3.49 ERA) to the hill, as he's now given up three or fewer runs in nine straight outing and he's gone six or more innings in eight of those starts. 

The pick: Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.98) has been flat-out terrible this season for the Angels. He most recently got blasted for seven runs over 2.1 innings on Monday in a loss to the A's. He's failed to finish six innings in six straight starts. The final nail in the coffin for the Angels today is the fact that Detroit is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge three straight losses against an opponent. 

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tigers.

The set-up: This is a complete pitching mismatch. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.49 ERA) struck out eight over seven innings while allowing just two runs in a win over the Astros on Saturday. He has 81 K's over 77.1 innings of work and he's 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA on the road. 

The pick: Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.48) gave up eight runs over 2.2 innings in a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers in his last start. He's 1-4 with a 6.92 ERA in all night games. The Twins can't take anyone for granted after a terrible start to the season. They just broke a three-game slide with a 7-2 win at Seattle on Wednesday and I like them to build off that with their ace on the mound. Lay the price with confidnce, the play is Minnesota.

This is a 10* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins.

The set-up: I think the Giants will not only win this game, but win by a significant margin. The visitors hand the ball to Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA), who returns from a stint on the injured list. Gallen struggled with control before landing on the IL, but he's now been given the green light to go here. He'll be on a short leash though, which definitely swings the odds in favor of Kevin Gausman today. 

The pick: Gausman (7-1, 1.43) is coming off his first loss of the season, giving up only two runs over four innings to the Nationals. To go along with his minuscule 0.78 WHIP, he also owns a sharp 97:18 K:BB over 81.2 innings of work. Look for Gausman to go deep, for Gallen to the get the hook early, and for the home side to post a big winning victory.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Giants.

The set-up: Both teams came into this three-game series red hot, but I think the White Sox will bounce back here after yesterday's 5-2 opening loss. Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.54 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he gave up three runs over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Wednesday. It was his second straight poor outing and I think he'll continue to strulggle, especially in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Give me Dallas Keuchel (5-1, 4.14) who is coming off back-to-back quality starts. I love Keuchel here at this price, lay it with confidence.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the White Sox.

The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work. 

The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.

The set-up: This is a major mismatch on the mound. The Cubs are off a win yesterday over the Cards and I love them to do it again here. Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21 ERA) has struggled big time this year, especially on the road where he's just 1-4 with a 7.15 ERA.

The pick: Zach Davies (3-3, 4.45 ERA) comes in off his best start of the season, allowing no runs over six innings in a victory over San Diego. Davies is a solid 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA at home. Lay this price, but expect a big home side blowout.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cubs.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the White Sox.

The set-up: I think Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.88 ERA) and the White Sox are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Giolito is out for revenge here after giving up four runs over seven innings in a loss to Detroit at home last Saturday. He did go on to strike out nine. Overall Giolito has been great this year and a bounce-back is imminent in my opinion, as note that he's 2-1 with a tiny 2.79 ERA in all "night" games this year. 

The pick: Tarik Skubal (3-7, 4.33) gave up one run throwing opposite Giolito last Saturday for the victory, spanning five innings. He also had 11 strikeouts. Skubal has been better at home than on the road, but definitely better in all "day" games (2-1, 2.05), than in "night" contests (1-6, 5.91). Look for Giolito to come in fired up here and to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. 

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the White Sox.

The set-up: The Blue Jays won 6-2 last night, getting five runs over the final two frames to secure the victory. Hyun Jin Ryu though is coming off his worst start of the year and I think he'll struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Dallas Keuchel has been as solid as Chicago could possibly hope for and he comes in off a victory. I say these pitchers are evenly matched, and that swings the value to the revenge-minded home side.

The pick: Which is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a four runs or greater home loss to an opponent. Bank on Keuchel outlasting Ryu and for the home side to bounce back after yesterday's defeat.

This is a 10* AL BLOOD-BATH on the White Sox.

The set-up: The Reds have taken the first three games of this series, but I say that the Cardinals dig deep here and salvage in the fourth. I also think that as good as Wade Miley (5-4, 3.26) has been this year for the Reds, John Gant (4-3, 1.60) has been even better for the Cardinals. 

The pick: Finally, note that St. Louis is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to avenge three-straight losses to an opponent. As Bob Barker used to say: "The Price is right!" as well. 

This is a 10* AFTERNOON BLOOD-BATH on the Cardinals.

The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot.

The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres.

The set-up: Luis Castillo (1-8, 7.22 ERA) has been an absolute disaster for the Reds, most recently getting shelled for four runs over five innings in a loss to the Cubs. He's been terrible anywhere he's thrown this season, but especially on the road, going 0-4 with an 8.92 ERA away from friendly confines.

The pick: The Reds have to be feeling confident with Kwang Hyun Kim on the mound. He's 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, and while he does coe off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks, I like him to bounce back here at home where he's 1-0 with a 1.90 ERA thus far. Look for the Cards to avenage last night's loss with the superior starter on the hill.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Cardinals.

The set-up: The Reds are off a 17-3 loss at home to Philadelphia two nights ago. That snapped a two-game win streak. The Reds are just 12-15 on the road this year. The Cards are 15-10 at home. St. Louis has lost three of four and after getting smashed 14-3 at the Dodgers yesterday afternoon, allowing 11 runs in the first inning, a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. 

The pick: Adam Wainwright (3-4, 4.22 ERA) has been good at home by going 2-2 with a 2.41 ERA. I like him over Vladimir Gutierrez (0-1, 1.80) who has looked decent over two major league starts, but who still is completely unproven. Look for the Reds to take advantage and lay the price.

This is a 10* NL BEST OF THE BEST on the Cardinals.

The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish.

Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games.

The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion.

This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays.

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but  I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially.

The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds.

The set-up: The Phillies have been trading wins and losses over their last seven games, and I expect that trend to continue here after yesterday's 5-3 defeat in which they allowed two runs in the bottom of the eighth. Tampa has a four-game set at division rival New York starting tomorrow, which sets this up as a "look-ahead" as well for the home side. 

The pick: I'll call Eflin and Patino a "wash" here for arguments sakes, but will point out that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine IL games in trying to avenge road loss against an opponent in which they allowed five or more runs in. The stage is set for a minor upset.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Phillies.

The setup: At 13-1, it is hard to bet against the Rays, but with the Phillies’ ace, Zack Wheeler on the mound, I am saying “go with the pitching” Wheeler, 4-2 , with an era of 2.38, has done all that has been asked of him this year. Expect 7 plus innings with great control, and remember, the Rays strike out a ton.

Ryan Yarbrough, Saturday’s starter, is hardly the shining light of the Rays rotation. At 2-3 and with an ERA of 4.27 he is seriously outclassed on the mound.

The pick: The Phillies’ bats are better against a lefty. I believe the Phillies will get to Yarbrough early, and Wheeler will give them his usual solid start. The line is softening in Philadelphia’s favor. Watch the line, then take the Phillies.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Phillies.

The set-up: I love Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 4.53 ERA) to help his team break its horrible 11-game slide today with a win over Johan Oviedo and the visiting Cardinals on Friday night. Oviedo has just been called up from Triple-A Memphis to make this start. Over 15.2 innings of work in the big leagues this year he has an poor 13/9 K/W. 

The pick: Bumgarner is coming off an outing to forget in which he allowed seven runs over six innings. He only allowed one earned run over the first five innings, but he came apart in the sixth vs. the Rockies. Note though that Bumgarner has been at his best at home this season, going 2-1 with a 3.89 ERA. I'm banking on Arizona breaking the slide.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: Clearly, this is a great pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani (1-0, 2.37 ERA) has been unreal for the Angels, but his line-up is depleted and I think that A's starter Chris Bassitt (4-2, 3.69), can easily match him inning for inning. I trust the A's bullpen more, and clearly Oakland has a significant advantage at the plate as well right now. 

The pick: Oakland just snapped a three-game slide with a win over the Mariners, while the Angels enter off a highly-satisfying victory last night. The A's are 4-1 in Bassitt's last five home starts vs. a team with a losing record, while LA is 0-5 in its last five vs. a right-handed starter. Lay the price.

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Athletics.

The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. Steven Matz hasn't been perfect this year, but his numbers are decent. He's been better on the road than at home as well and his team will be ultra-motivated here to get back on track after losing eight of ten. Here's a great spot to bounce back in.

The pick: The Yanks have won nine of their last ten. They're coming off a sweep of the White Sox. Corey Kluber has been fantastic this year, but after throwing his first career no-hitter last time out. Toronto has the offense to match pace, and I think it offers great value to bounce back here.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Jays.

The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71). 

The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under."

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays.

The set-up: I think the Angels will bounce ack here after losing seven of their last ten and three in a row. That includes the first two games of this series vs. Oakland. Dylan Bundy is coming off a great season, but so far this year he's 0-5 with a 6.02 ERA. Bundy is struggling, but he's not as horrible as his numbers would indicate, and I'll point out as well that LA is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row.) 

The pick: Sean Manaea (3-2, 4.41) counters for the visiting side. He most recently allowed three runs over six innings in win over the Astros in his last start. Manaea though is also struggling, as he's allowed double-digit base-runners in each of his last two outings, while posting only five K's across eight combined innings. Look for the hungry home side to find a way to get back into the winners circle here.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Angels.

The set-up: Aaron Nola is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. That's been the case throughout his career. The Phillies play much better at home also. Nola is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA overall. He's 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA on the road, but he's 2-0 with a 1.43 ERA at home. 

The pick: Martin Perez (1-2, 3.40), comes in off six scoreless vs. the Angels. Perez has been great this year, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. This price could/should in fact be higher, I'm laying it and expecting a rout.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Phillies.

The set-up: I like the Phillies and Vince Velasquez to bounce-back here at home after yesterday's 3-1 defeat. The Phillies will be motivated, as they've lost three of their last four. Velasquez (1-0, 3.68 ERA), is coming off a strong outing and I look for him to carry over that momentum here, he went 5.2 innings of one run ball and struck out seven in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Jays.

The pick: San Alcantara (1-3, 4.06), was shelled for eight runs over 1.1 innings in a loss in his last outing. Previous to that Alcantara had been solid, but I believe he'll struggle again here in this difficult road venue. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value."

This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Phillies.

The set-up: Sorry, I'm travelling today, so don't have the time for my usual in-depth analysis. 

The pick: The Phillies play better at home, as they snapped a two-game slide with an 8-3 win in yesterday's series opener. I expect a similar final here as well. Eflin and Rogers are a "wash," but note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in their last outing. Great value.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Phillies.

The set-up: The Twins have lost eight of their last ten. They're the worst team in all baseball according to their record. THey enter off a humbling 16-4 defeat here yesterday to the White Sox, but I think they'll finally find a way to bounce back here. Chicago hands  the ball to Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.30 ERA), while the Twins counter with Michael Pineda (2-2, 2.79). For arguments sakes, I'm classifying these starters a "wash."

The pick: Minnesota is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 15 or more runs in. Enough is enough in Minnesota. I think Lynn is due for regression sooner, rather than later and I like Pineda in this home start for sure. As the late-great Bob Barker used to say: "The Price Is Right!" Great value on the hungry home side.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Twins.

The set-up: I like the "hungrier" home side to deliver the goods in this matchup. The Twins have losg eight of ten. That includes getting swept by the White Sox in Chicago last week. Note that the Twins are 7-1 in their last eight in the first game of a series vs. a team, after getting swept in a series vs. that team previously. 

The pick: Dallas Keuchel and JA Happ each had terrible games vs. each other last week and each should be sharper this time around. Let's call that department a wash. Note though that the Twins are 7-3 in their last ten after allowing seven of more runs in a home loss in their previous outing (lost 7-6 yesterday here to the A's.) Great value on the hungry home side!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Twins.

The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs.

The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres.

The set-up: The Brewers have lost two of their last three, but I think they'll find a way to get the job done after yesterday's 6-3 series opening loss. Ian Anderson (2-1, 3.46 ERA) of the Braves and Brett Anderson (2-2, 3.54) are evenly matched.

The pick: The difference-maker for me today is that the Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine home games in trying to revenge a three runs or greater home loss vs. an opponent. The Braves have been consistently inconsistent all season and I expect that strong trend to continue here vs. the revenge-minded home side.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Brewers.

The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. 

The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.

The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road. 

The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates.

The set-up: The Dodgers held on for a 6-4 win last night, and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here. LA can ill afford to look past anyone after a sluggish stretch. The defending champs got off to a blistering start, but they've since completely fallen off, entering at 19-17. Seattle has likely over-performed to this point, sitting at 18-18. This is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side, and it's the reason why I like the Dodgers to win big today. 

The pick: Just Dunn is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA for the Mariners and he's been serviceable in his limited time, but note that he's yet to go deeper than the fifth inning. Julio Urias is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA, but his 0.98 WHIP and 7.67 K/BB are elite. For all the reasons listed above, avoid the money line here on the favorite and instead take the -1.5 run line option.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Dodgers.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win collide here. Two good starting pitchers, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. The Angels are 16-18 and the Astros are 18-17. Shohei Ohtani is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA overall, but with a ballooned 7.20 ERA on the road. 

The pick: Houston won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's lost five of its last eight. Lance McCullers Jr. is 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA. Look for Houston to get back into the winners circle in front of the home town crowd.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros.

The set-up: The Chicago White Sox held on for a 3-0 win last night over the Royals, and I expect them to find a way to get the job done here as well. Lance Lynn is 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA, most recently allowing three runs with two strikeouts in a win over Cleveland on Saturday, going five innings. It was his first start back from a minor injury and he looked great, so further progression is expected here after that outing is out of the way.

The pick: His counterpart is Daniel Lynch, who is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA. Lynch looked shaky in his first big league start vs. Cleveland on Monday, allowing three runs over 4.2 innings. The Royals will send Lynch to the mound again today out of necessity. Chicago is 37-17 in its last 54 vs. southpaws, which doesn't bode well for Lynch. Lay the price, expect a blowout.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the White Sox.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field. 

The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves.

The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays. 

The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals.

The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work. 

The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees.

The set-up: The Reds took two of three from the Cubs in their most recent home matchup. That includes a 13-12 victory in the finale two nights ago. With a ten-game road trip after this short two-game mini-series, the Reds' will look to keep the good times rolling at the plate in friendly confines. 

The pick: Dylan Cease and Jeff Hoffman are a "wash" in this one. Although take note, Hoffman's sure been tough at home this season, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA thus far. He'll benefit in not having to face Luis Robert, the ChiSox slugger who strained his leg in Sunday's 5-0 loss to the Tribe. All things considered, great value on the hard-hitting home side. 

This is a 10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Reds.

The set-up: Neither team has played great this year. Tampa is 14-15 and LA is 13-13. We have a couple of really good starters going head-to-head in the opener of this four-game series though, but it's one that I think favors the hard-hitting home side, as I expect Tyler Glasnow to finally show some regression here after an unreal start to the season. Glasnow (3-1, 1.67 ERA) gave up five hits over seven scoreless in a 2-0 win over the A's in his last outing. 

The pick: Shohei Ohtani (3.29 ERA) gave up four runs over five innings, while striking out nine in a 9-4 win over Texas. LA had an early lead so Ohtani gave up a long-ball by being extra aggressive. I think these starters are a "wash," but I give a big nod to the Angels line-up. The Rays have been better at home than on the road as far as their offense is concerned. I think LA offers great value in this spot for sure.

This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Angels.

The set-up: After the Reds' high-scoring 8-6 win yesterday, I'm expecting more of a "duel" on Saturday. Both teams have now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note that the Cubs have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in. 

The pick: Are Luis Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) and Zach Davies (1-2, 9.47) really as horrible as their numbers would indicate? I'd say, absolutely not. Clearly both have significant issues early, but Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.86 ER in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Davies came over in the Yu Darvish trade and he's struggled in the early going, but I expect a much better effort here. Look for these two very hungry starters to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cubs/Reds.

The set-up: The Royals are coming off a 9-6 win over the Pirates, while the Twins are off a 10-2 victory over the Indians. Brady Singer is 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA for the visiting side, while Michael Pineda is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA for the home side. The Royals have been playing well, but I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: And that's because the Twins can hardly afford to look past anyone these days, as they finally broke a four-game losing streak with the big win over Cleveland last time out. Pineda comes off a poor outing, but those have been few and far between for the veteran over the last few years. Regression seems imminent for both the Royals and Singer today. I'm banking on the hungrier home side delivering in this opener.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Twins.

The set-up: The bottom line here is that I think that Trevor Bauer and the defending champs are undervalued in this particular spot. Simply put, the Dodgers haven't been playing great baseball over the last three weeks, as they've gone just 3-7 in their last ten. That said, after yesterday's 8-0 win over the Reds, I expect them to carry that momentum over here. They definitely have the superior starter on the hill. Bauer is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and he has 45 K's over 32.0 innings of work. 

The pick: Eric Lauer has been recalled to make his first major league start this year. Lauer had a 3:7 K:BB in spring training, allowing eight earned runs in his short stint. LA's recent form of late means it can't afford to look past any opportunity at the moment and this here is one of the "golden" variety. Lay the price, expect a blowout.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Dodgers.

The set-up: Justin Dunn has actually been quite good for the Mariners, going 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA. Dunn's team though is struggling mightily at the plate, going 0-3 in its last three and totalling five runs in the process. The M's bullpen has been decent, but I can't see Seattle getting any production at the plate vs. Zack Greinke.

The pick: WHo is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA. Hosuton is 5-0 in its last five at home vs. clubs with winning records, while Seattle is only 20-49 in its last 69 vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. I look for Houston to not only win today, but to win by a sizeable margin.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Astros.

The set-up: Both teams are in need of a victory. New York is coming off a 4-0 win over Washington, taking two of three from the Nationals, while Boston bot the better of Seattle 5-3 in its lastest action, splitting a four-game series with the Mariners at home. Boston's been good on the road this year, coming in at 6-1 away from friendly confines. That's a lop-sided number which will start to correct itself right here in my opinion. The Mets are definitely much better at home with a 6-2 record in friendly confines. 

The pick: Garrett Richards has been terrible for the Red Sox. David Peterson hasn't been much better for the Mets. Note though, while Peterson is a terrible 0-2 with an 11.41 ERA on the road, he's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home. I look for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done in the opener of this IL series.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Mets.

The set-up: I think the Reds obviously have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, I also see it coming down to the wire, decided late or even in extra frames. As such, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds won't be lacking for motivation here obviously after seven straight losses. Tyler Mahle is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA for the Reds, sporting a sharp 31/9 K/W over 20.2 innings of work.

The pick: Julio Urias is 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA for the Dodgers. He just went seven scoreless vs. the Mariners. He owns a 26/4 K/W over 25.2 innings. Urias though looks primed for a letdown after his recent gem. Do I think the Reds would beat the Dodgers in a seven-game playoff series? I do not. Do I think they can compete hard on Monday night to try and break a seven-game slide with their best pitcher on the mound and the eyes of the World on this game? Absolutely. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 runs.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Reds.

The set-up: The last two games of this series have flown "over" the number, including yesterday's 5-4 win for the Dodgers. All signs point to the Sunday finale being a "duel" though in my opinion. These teams have strong bullpens and they both send strong starting pitchers to the hill. San Diego turns to Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA), while the home side counters with Dustin May (1-1, 2.93.) These two are in top form and there's no reason not to believe they won't continue that trend here.

The pick: San Diego has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more runs in. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: The Giants won here 5-3 last night and I think they'll find a way to do it again here as well. The Fish hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, who is 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA (note though that he has a 13.50 ERA on the road.) 

The pick: San Fran and Kevin Gausman are undervalued here. Gausman is 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA and has looked great in the early going. The Giants are also 4-1 in their last five during the third game of a three-game series, while the Marlins are a miserable 1-5 their last six in this ballpark. Look for San Fran to keep the foot on the gas on Saturday night.

This is a 10* play on the Giants.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in last night's 3-2 Padres win, and obviously that came up short. San Diego has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, while LA has seen the total go "under" in five in a row. Darvish and Kershaw have somehow defied the odds and remained relevant as starting pitchers and while each has been good in the early going (Kershaw is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA, while Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.55), strong O/U trends point for this game as being a "slug-fest," rather than a "duel." 

The pick: San Diego has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six home games in trying to revnege a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for this one to comfortably eclispe the number in the latter innings.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: These teams are loaded with offensive talent, but each has played to several "unders" in a row. San Diego has seen the total go "under" in five straight. It also comes in off three straight loss at home to Milwaukee. Clearly the Friars are going to be out to atone for that poor series showing, totaling just three runs vs. the Brewers. The Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in four strraight, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win at Seattle. 

The pick: Buehler and Weathers are a "wash" here. I base a lot of my MLB picks on the starting pitching and I don't have anything at all negative to say about either of these starters, as I simply feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. As note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent scoreless, while scoring two or less runs itself in the process. Look for this one to fly well "over" in the latter frames.

This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra innings, my strongest play on this game is to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Max Scherzer is 0-1 with a 2.37 ERA for the Nationals. He's given up just one run over 13 innings. Scherzer continues to get little run support. 

The pick: Carlos Martinez is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA this year for the Cards. Martinez is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in ten career games vs. the Nationals. Washington was already thin coming into this one though, and now its suffered another setback with an injury to Juan Soto. I think Martinez can get back on track here in this favorable matchup and match Scherzer inning for inning.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals.

The set-up: The Phillies go with Zack Wheeler, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Most recently he allowed three runs over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Mets. Wheeler's been decent in the early going, and he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA vs. the Giants. Philly though has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent (fell 2-0 in the series opener yesterday.) 

The pick: Logan Webb gets the nod for the visitors despite having some COVID related issues of late. He's 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Note that San Fran has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after holding its opponent scoreless on the road in its previous outing. I'm banking on these hungry line-ups being the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Giants/Phillies.

The set-up: After three straight wins over their arch nemesis, I think the Rays have a predictable letdown here. The hungry home side will look to take advantage and build off its 2-0 win over Toronto. Josh Fleming is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA for the Rays, while Danny Duffy is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA for KC. 

The pick: Both teams have played well of late, but Tampa is primed for a letdown here after sweeping the Yankees. The Royals have been bottom-feeders for years, so there's no way they're going to take the foot off the gas at any point this season, especially when they're playing so well. The Royals have been sharp at home, going 7-3 and averaging over 5.0 RPG. Expect KC to find a way to deliver here.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Royals.

The set-up: Zack Greinke will help his team break its current six game slide. Greinke is looking to bounce back after a poor outing vs. the Tigers, allowing six runs over 4.2 innings. The Mariners are in a rebuilding year, but they're somehow atop the AL West with an 8-5 record. Seattle starter Chris Flexen was crushed in his opener as well, getting shelled for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a setback to the Twins. 

The pick: I give the advantage for sure in this spot to the veteran Greinke, who has the track record and pedigree to make some minor adjustments and take full advantage of this advantageous matchup. I think Houston is the better team in every regard and despite some injuries, I look for it to finally get untracked here with its ace on the mound.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Astros.

The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far. 

The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching. 

This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds.