The set-up: While Robbie Ray is struggling through a difficult overall season, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent inter-league counterpart. The Rangers will hand the ball to the erratic Martin Perez in this one.

The pitchers: Perez is so far 2-4 with a 7.08 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Wednesday. Perez has struggled across the board this year, going only 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA on the road.

Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.90 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk and six strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Wednesday. After a disappointing first half, it was easily Ray’s best start of 2018.

The pick: And there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing southpaw won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is just 14-19 against lefties this year, while Arizona is 21-16 (+3.9 units) against southpaws. The massive talent gap on the mound makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: St. Louis fell 5-2 at home to the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball after taking the first two games of that series, while Colorado came out on top of Oakland 3-2 last night. For a number of different reasons, I think tonight’s contest favors the Cards though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side goes with Carlos Martinez.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-3 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off three hits with three walks while striking out four over 7.1 innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Anderson has been sharp in July (1.32 ERA), but note that the Rockies are just 2-7 in their last nine after giving up two or less runs in their previous outing.

Martinez is so far 6-6 with a 3.39 ERA. Martinez missed one start after a short stint on the DL, but he’s been cleared to go here. Note that he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA at home.

The pick: Also note that St. Louis is 12-7 (+4.6 units) this season at home when the money line in the contest falls in the -125 to +125 range. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I think the Cards have the advantage at home though and I look for them to make the most of it. Lay the very reasonable price.

The set-up: The Sunday Night ESPN game features an interesting matchup on the mound, as the visitors send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, while the home side goes with John Gant.

The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Over six of his last seven starts Hendricks has now failed to complete six innings. Note that he’s an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA on the road as well.

Gant is so far 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He was most recently used in relief against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs and two walks over one frame of work.

The pick: These teams have woken up at the plate as the weather has warmed up, as Chicago has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 23 in July so far, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against the division. While these teams played to the “under” on Saturday afternoon, everything points to a higher-scoring “slug-fest” in this one. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with veteran Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Joey Lucchesi.

The pitchers: Buchholz is so far 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday, while also striking out five over seven frames of work. In eight trips to the hill this year Buchholz has given up more than two runs just once. He owns a sharp 0.99 WHIP and 36:9 K/BB over 45.1 frames.

Lucchesi is so far 5-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with no walks over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. For the most part Lucchesi has been solid this season, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Arizona is 30-23 on the road, while San Diego is just 19-31 at home. Lucchesi’s been consistently inconsistent and I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Buchholz on the other hand comes in on top form and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. The price is right, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Borucki, while the home side goes with Carlos Rodon.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out just two over six innings in a tough luck loss against Minnesota on Tuesday. Borucki has been the victim of poor run support to this point (just ten runs over his five big-league outings), but the Jays catch a break here today facing the erratic Rodon.

Rodon is so far 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with three walks over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Rodon has admittedly looked decent of late, but I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: And that’s because Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten against teams with losing records (and in four of its last six against southpaws). The Whitesox aren’t known for their offensive prowess, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’ve seen the total go “over” seven of their last ten home games when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and for this one to sail “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo

The pitchers: Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget, allowing three runs off five hits with three walks in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. Previous to this dud he’d won six of his last seven starts and despite the shaky performance, he still owns a solid 1.15 WHIP and 68:17 K/BB over 71.1 innings. Also note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the road.

Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.30 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Monday. Castillo has looked better over the last month, but he still owns a poor 2-5, 5.66 ERA record in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is a terrible 33-44 (-5.3 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-35 (+9.5 units) against right-handed pitching. I’m banking on Eflin getting the better of Castillo and for the Phillies to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Philadelphia.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors send ace Jose Berrios to the hill, while the home side goes with the newly acquired Nate Eovaldi. 

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 10-7 with a 3.48 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings while striking out nine in a win over the Jays on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that he also owns a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 136 strikeouts over 134.1 frames of work.

Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Over ten starts for Tampa this season he’s posted a 4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53 strikeouts over 57 frames of work. 

The pick: Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his limited time this season and he certainly draws a tough matchup in his first start for his new team. Berrios on the other hand is getting stronger as the season has progressed and I look for that trend to carry over here. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs. 

The set-up: Felix Hernandez has looked brilliant at times this season for the Mariners and very poor in others. Jaime Barria is coming off a difficult outing, but for the most part the rookie has been solid, especially at home. I like the home side in this one.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Saturday. While he does own a 4-3 record on the road, note that his ERA elevates to an unsightly 6.65 away from friendly confines.

Barria is so far 5-7 with a 3.80 ERA. Barria most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Barria has struggled over the last month, but note that he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, having already posted a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Seattle has been a great story this year, but I think Hernandez’s struggles on the road once again come back to haunt him here. Barria is the correct call, so lay the price.

The set-up: This National League series features some interesting matchups, and this is definitely one of them. The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the Giants go with Johnny Cueto. Runs would appear to be at a premium.

The pitchers: Chacin is so far 9-3 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits with no walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. The veteran continues to produce consistent results, note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road as well.

Cueto is so far 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision to the A’s on Sunday. While he’s struggled over the three starts since returning from the DL, I still don’t think there’s any need to panic. Regression was imminent after his blistering start, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form.

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” the number in 45 of 75 against right-handed starters already this season, while San Francisco has seen the total go “under” the number in 35 of 60 against right-handed starters this year. Look for these

The set-up: This series features a couple of big mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Gio Gonzalez, while the home side goes with Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Gonzalez is so far 6-7 with a 3.94 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Monday, allowing five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the eventual setback. Gonzalez has struggled a bit of late, but I still believe he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart tonight.

Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Sunday. While he’s looked decent over the last two weeks, I’ll preach caution, as note that he still owns a poor 1.46 WHIP and pedestrian 63:32 K/BB over 69.1 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 42-28 in its last 70 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 18-31 in its last 49 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side taking advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road.

Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he’s 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line.

The set-up: This series features some even match ups, but this isn’t one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom, while the home side goes with Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: deGrom is so far 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over eight innings in a loss to San Diego on Monday, also going on to strikeout ten. DeGrom has now gone 17 straight starts with allowing three earned runs or fewer. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA on the road as well.

Williams is so far 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA. He comes in off a win over Cleveland on Monday, going six scoreless with one strikeout. Williams has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s still owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home.

The pick: DeGrom has been the victim of poor run support this season, but his numbers definitely put him in Cy Young contention. Williams has been “ok” over the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s in over his head in this matchup. My focus is on the starters and deGrom is undervalued here in my opinion. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a number of relatively “even” match ups on the mound, but I think the Phillies have the advantage in this one. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Matt Harvey.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings and struck out seven as well in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Velasquez would throw 58 of his 87 pitches for strikes and he started 15 of the 24 opponents he faced with a strike. Over his last two starts he’s now posted ten strikeouts over 13 scoreless frames of work.

Harvey is so far 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s moving in the opposite direction of Velasquez now, most recently giving up eight runs over 3.2 innings, including conceding four home runs. Note that Harvey owns a 5.72 ERA in all “home” games this year also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 45-34 (+10.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 32-44 (-6.4 units) against right-handed starters. I like Velasquez to build of his recent performances and to get the better of Harvey once it’s all said and done. Play on the Phillies.

The set-up: Two hungry veterans square off in this National League matchup on Friday night and in my opinion, the home side has the advantage. The Brewers send Chase Anderson to the hill, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he would labor by throwing 104 pitches over the four innings.

Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off two hits with five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to the A’s on Saturday. It was his shortest outing of the 2018 campaign, so I’m not reading too much into one shaky performance. Note as well that Bumgarner is a “lights out” 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA at home so far this year.

The pick: Milwaukee is 58-46 overall, but just 25-26 on the road. San Francisco is 52-51 overall, but a much better 31-19 (+9.8 unit) in all home games. I’m banking on Bumgarner bouncing back and for Anderson to take a step back. Lay the price, play on the Giants.

analysis soonThe set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the Diamondbacks on the “run-line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Luis Perdomo.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 and walking one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Note that it was the sixth straight start in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs.

Perdomo is so far 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Perdomo is so far 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Perdomo has shown nothing whatsoever to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” and regain his form. In fact, the right-hander will likely be moved back to the bullpen shortly when others become healthy. Greinke on the other hand has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and I look for that trend to carry over here with another dominant performance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.”

The set-up: I think Kyle Freeland will continue his strong play at home, while I believe Sean Manea will struggle in this difficult venue for Oakland.

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 9-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a victory over San Francisco on Sunday. Manaea has exceeded expectations to this point, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in all “night” games.

Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that it was just the fourth this time this year that he’s given up more than three earned runs. Additionally note that Freeland owns a sharp 3.1 per nine innings walk rate over 120.2 frames of work this year.

The pick: I think Manaea struggles in this difficult venue and also in playing under the National League format. Freeland on the other hand has a major advantage with the familiarity in my opinion and in the end, I believe that’ll be the difference. Play on the Rockies.

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the “run line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I’ll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings.

Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he’s posted 18 strikeouts in the process.

The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally “found his groove” and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the “run line.”

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work.

Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories.

The pick: Lynn’s been a disaster overall this season and he’s seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It’s been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the “run line.”

The set-up: I think Trevor Cahill is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side sends the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill.

The pitchers: Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Cahill would induce 13 swinging strikes on only 79 pitches. Note that he now owns a very respectable 1.02 WHIP over 58 innings.

Colon is far 4-8 with a 4.85 ERA. Colon has been more “miss” than “hit” this season, as he’s regressed considerably after a decent start to the 2018 campaign. Note that he owns a 5.01 ERA at home also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 41-26 (+19.2 units) already this year against right-handed starters, while Texas is only 29-41 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. I think Cahill outlasts Colon and I look for the red hot A’s to get the job done in the end. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two starters who have looked brilliant at times and poor in others so far this season meet on Thursday night and everything points to a “slug-fest” in my opinion. The visitors go with Stephen Matz, while the home side goes with Nick Kingham.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He returned from the break to get shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Matz has been decent overall this year, but his latest start is definitely a worry if you’re a Mets fan.

Kingham is so far 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham has admittedly been quite sharp over the last month, however I’ll point out that the rookie still has a poor 5.51 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total go “over” the number in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates have seen the total go “over” in 52 of their last 85 as a home favorite -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who struggled over the first half meet on Thursday night and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Jake Junis, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray.

The pitchers: Junis is so far 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA. Junis most recently allowed one run off four hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Junis looked decent, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA in all “night” games.

Gray is so far 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gray gave up three runs over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets in his first start back from the All Star game. Gray’s been better of late and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: New York is the most prolific offensive team in the league and while the Royals aren’t known for their offensive prowess, the visitors catch a break here facing the erratic Gray. Junis has been consistently inconsistent all year and I believe he’ll predictably stumble in this difficult venue. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who have struggled  matchup together on Thursday night and everything points to more issues for each in the second. The visitors go with Hunter Wood, while the home side goes with Alex Cobb.

The pitchers: Wood isn't expected to go long, just an inning or two. In his last start, he did allow one run and two hits (in just two innings). 

Cobb is so far 2-13 with a 6.17 ERA. He came out of the break and gave up four runs off four hits with three walks over 3.5 innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday. Unfortunately for Cobb a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in friendly confines so far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Baltimore has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last ten against the division. This number is a little low in my opinion, play the “over.”

The set-up: The talent gap on the mound is big. Their is also a big discrepancy at the plate as well. Both those factors combine to make the home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs.

The pitchers: Shields is so far 4-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Shields earned a loss in his first start back after the break, giving up two runs over seven innings in a setback to the Mariners on Friday. Shields has been on a decent run of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA on the road.

Skaggs is so far 7-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Skaggs gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Over his last seven trips to the hill he’s posted six quality efforts and to go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports a 1.22 WHIP and impressive 106:31 K/BB over 104 innings this season

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 6-16 (-4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 7-1 (+5.1 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Angels.

The set-up: No upset here in my opinion, as I look for Trevor Bauer to take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his inter-league counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Taillon is so far 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Friday, giving up one run over 5.1 innings in the eventual victory. Taillon has been decent of late, but I still think he’ll have his hands full in this difficult venue.

Bauer is so far 8-6 with 2.44 ERA. Bauer came out of the break with a “dud” against Texas on Friday, giving up four runs and striking out seven over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision. Previous to that though he’d posted eight straight quality efforts, so there’s no reason not to think he won’t make an immediate bounce back here (note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home still.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is already a terrible 3-13 (-8.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is 57-31 (+9 units) in its last 88 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side in this one, so lay the price.

The set-up: Neither starter has been fantastic, but one has been consistently better than the other. And I believe that trend carries over into their head-to-head matchup. The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Sal Romano.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA. He was “on point” in his first start back from the break, giving up one run off two hits with nine strikeouts over five innings in what turned out be an 18-5 laugher over the Cubs on Friday. Note that he’s a highly respectable 3-0 with a tiny 2.08 ERA in all “day” games this year as well.

Romano is so far 5-8 with a 5.19 ERA. Over 20 appearances he’s posted an uninspiring 5.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Note that he’s also just 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA at home and only 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 8-4 (+2.8 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is just 15-20 (-5.1 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125 this year. The price is right, play on the Cards.

The set-up: The Rays will now go with Ryne Stanek instead of Nathan Eovaldi. Regardless, I expect Luis Cessa and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

The pitchers: Cessa is so far 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA this year. He’s been called up to the big team after the recent demotion of Domingo German. Cessa comes in sporting serviceable numbers over 82.1 innings, including a 4.37 ERA and 61 strikeouts.

Stanek won't be asked to go long (just an inning or two), which is the norm for him in this unique role. Though he'll never qualify for an actual decision, the team has lost 8 of his 13 "starts" including each of the last two. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is interestingly 7-2 in its last nine in all day road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -150 range, while Tampa Bay is just 5-6 in its last 11 day home games in which it’s a dog in the +125 to +150 range. Look for Cessa to at the very least match Eovaldi’s effort and for the Yanks’ big bats to take care of the rest. Lay the price.

The set-up: Carlos Rodon hasn’t been completely terrible this year, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup. The home side goes with Felix Pena in this one.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 2-3 with a 3.56 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d allow zero runs over 7.1 innings in a win over St. Louis. As I stated off the top, Rodon has been decent this season, but note that he’s been horrible on the road with an 0-3, 5.16 ERA record.

Pena is so far 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d given up one earned run off three hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers. Over 26.1 innings he’s posted a respectable 1.33 WHIP. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago is just 22-55 (-22.2 units) the last three season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while LA is 47-30 (+4.4 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I look for Pena to outduel Rodon and for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think this is a very fair trade off (laying the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs.) The visitors go with Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks.

The teams: Buchholz is so far 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He landed on the ten-day DL prior to the All Star Game, but he’s been given the green light to proceed with his bounce back season, coming into this one with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 31:7 K/BB over 38.2 innings.

Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Hendricks opened the second half with a no-decision against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. So far he’s already been shelled for a career-high 18 homers this season and note that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on Arizona on the “run line.”

The set-up: The middle game of this American League series sees Twins’ ace Jose Berrios go up against Jays rookie Ryan Borucki. While he’s looked decent in his limited time and while the sky could indeed be the limit for Borucki’s career, I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA. Berrios earned a no-decision in his final outing before the break, giving up six runs while striking out five over six innings against the Rays. Starts like that have been pretty rare for Berrios this season though, who comes in having still posted quality efforts in six of his last eight trips to the hill (is worthy to note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in all night games. Respectable for sure.)

Borucki is so far 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Borucki returns from Triple-A to make this start, so far he’s been shelled for nine earned runs while posting a pedestrian 21:10 K/BB over 23 frames of work.

The pick: Let’s face it, both teams have been disappointments this year. Neither will be in the postseason. Each has had to deal with significant injury issues. For this one though, I’m concentrating on the starting pitchers and in my opinion, there’s no reason not to think that Berrios won’t be able to get the better of his still unproven/younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on Minnesota.

The set-up: Texas closed out a series with Cleveland over the weekend, while the A’s were at home in an inter-league matchup with the Giants. On paper it would appear as if these starters are evenly matched, but I think Cole Hamels has the slight advantage at home. The visitors go with the erratic Brett Anderson.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up three runs over 3.1 innings to San Francisco in what turned out to be a no-decision. Anderson has how now managed to throw six innings only once in six trips to the hill this season (owns a poor 1.86 WHIP over 23.2 innings).

Hamels is so far 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up four runs over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Orioles. Hamels admittedly struggled over his final three starts, but the break comes at a great time for the veteran and I believe the southpaw responds here with the extra time off (is 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “night” games YTD.)

The pick: Hamels is the correct call here in my opinion. The veteran gets back on track in his first start in the second half, while I predict Anderson’s inconsistencies get carried over in this difficult venue. Play on the Rangers.

The set-up: Pittsburgh won big in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, while the Indians were on the road in Texas. Clearly Cleveland has the advantage on the mound with ace Corey Kluber, but I think the Pirates can carry their momentum over from yesterday’s convincing victory and keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the spread once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Williams is so far 7-7 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d go five scoreless against the Nationals. I think Williams benefits here in the AL format and also with the extra time off because of the break.

Kluber is so far 12-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Kluber was forced to miss the All Star game because of an injection in his knee. Kluber was then shut-down for a week, but he’s been cleared to go here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Pittsburgh is a red hot 10-2 (+6.8 units) this year in all inter-league games, while Cleveland is just 18-25 (-14.9 units) against clubs with winning records. Look for the Bucs to keep the good times rolling with a competitive effort in the opener of this inter-league series, but grab the extra run-and-a-half as insurance.

The set-up: LA was busy in Milwaukee on Sunday, while the Phillies had a double-header at home against the Padres. Two starters which put together above average first half performances collide in the opener of this one, but I believe Ross Stripling and the visitors have the advantage. The home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d allow just six hits and one walk with five strikeouts over six shutout frames of work. 58 of Stripling’s 90 pitches went for strikes and it pushed his walk rate down to 1.3 BB/9. Stripling also comes in confident with the 4-2, 1.81 ERA record on the road.

Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about Eflin, as for the most part he’s exceeded expectations for the Phillies this season. But note that he did land on the 10-day DL prior to the All Star break because of a blister issue, so I’m definitely thinking that the extra rest will in fact lead to some rust in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 57-38 the last three seasons as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 20-34 in the same time span as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I think Stripling outlasts Eflin and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take the opener of this National League series. Play on the Dodgers.

The set-up: The Padres and Phillies were rained out yesterday and because of that, they’ll play a double-header on Sunday. We’re focusing on the second game, as I expect the home side to have the upper-hand in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Luis Perdomo, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez.

The pitchers: Perdomo is so far just 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA. Perdomo has been a disaster in his limited time for the Padres this season, having to deal with injury issues.

Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA. He finished the first half with a strong start against the Mets, scattering two hits over six scoreless innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. While his ERA isn’t the best, note that he does own an impressive 110:35 K/BB over 94.1 innings so far this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a terrible 28-43 (-7.5 units) this season in all “night” games, while Philly is 34-27 (+7.3 units) in all “night” contests. I think Perdomo struggles after his scheduled start was delayed and I think Velasquez can take advantage. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Phillies in Game 2.

The set-up: Arizona’s ace Zack Grienke has been “lights out” at home, and I expect that trend to carry over here. The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela is in over his head in my opinion.

The pitchers: Senzatela is so far 3-2 with a 5.34 ERA. He comes off the ten day DL due to a blister issue, but in his final start before the break he’d give up six runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners.

Greinke is so far 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA. In his final start before the mid summer classic he’d go eight scoreless in a victory over Atlanta, walking one and striking out seven. To go along with his sharp ERA, Greinke also owns a 1.15 WHP and 9.2 K/9 over 20 starts this season.

The pick: And as I mentioned off the top, Greinke has been better at home (4-1, 2.56 ERA) than on the road (6-4, 3.77) so far this year.

This is a mismatch of epic proportions on the mound in my opinion and it makes the home side well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: One of these starters has been consistent from the “get go,” while the other has been a complete train wreck. The visitors go with Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs (four earned) while striking out eight in a sub-par setback to the hard-hitting Yankees on Saturday. Note though that it was only the second time this season that he’s given up multiple home runs in a game. Also note that Clevinger has been sharp on the road this year with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record.

Gallardo is so far 3-1 with an 8.60 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d be rocked for six runs off seven hits over five innings against Boston. Over 30.1 innings of work this season Gallardo owns a disturbing 8.60 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 20:13 K/BB.

The pick: Gallardo has been downright terrible and I don’t think the All Star break will change anything here for the veteran. Clevinger on the other hand was clearly fading as the first half closed, so the extra time off will be extremely beneficial in my opinion.

The set-up: The Giants rallied for a 5-1 win in yesterday’s inter-league matchup and I think the visitors will find a way to the winners circle on Saturday night as well. San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner on the mound this evening, while Oakland goes with Trevor Cahill.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 2.90 ERA. The veteran closed the first half strong with back to back strong outings. Bumgarner started the year injured and after a couple of “ho hum” starts after returning to the rotation, the big southpaw has gotten progressively better with each performance.

Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA. Cahill has also had to deal with injury this year and while the veteran has been sharp at home, I think he’s going to have his hands full today with this talented Giants’ line-up.

The pick: Both teams come in with winning records, but note that San Francisco is 33-27 against right-handed pitchers this season, while Oakland is just 15-17 against left-handed starters. I look for these strong trends to hold true again here. Play on the Giants.

The set-up: Pittsburgh humbled Cincinnati 12-1 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think “revenge” is in the cards on Saturday night. The visitors go with Nick Kingham, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Kingham is so far 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Kingham for the most part has performed admirably in his first year in the big leagues. If he’s had one glaring weakness though, clearly it’s been his performance on the road (just 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA away from friendly confines.)

DeSclafani is so far 4-2 with a 5.32 ERA. He’s struggled at times this season, but note that the Reds are 35-25 (+11.5 units) in their last 60 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

The pick: The Pirates exploded for the convincing victory yesterday, but note that they’re still a terrible 20-25 (-3.4 units) on the road this year. After yesterday’s pathetic effort, I’m expecting a big response from the home side in this one. Play on Cincinnati.

The set-up: The Red Sox held on for a 1-0 win yesterday as a -200 favorite. Suffice it to say, I’m predicting a more decisive victory for the visitors on Saturday night. Boston goes with Brian Johnson in this one, while Detroit goes with Mike Fiers.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He returns rested after a stint on the DL and the All Star break. Johnson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp on the road with a 1-1, 2.79 ERA this season.

Fiers is so far 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Fiers for the most part has been solid for Detroit this year and it’s difficult to point out too many negative faults. If he has had one though, it’s been his play in all “night” games where he’s just 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 40-17 (+9.3 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is just 13-29 (-5.4 units) against teams with winning records this season. Also note that the Tigers are a terrible 21-37 (-4.8 units) following a loss, while Boston is 48-20 (+17.8 units) following a win. I’m banking on the hard-hitting Red Sox to post a lop-sided victory tonight, so lay the price.

The set-up: While he’s looked decent in his limited time for the A’s this year, I think Edwin Jackson takes a step back in this tough interleague matchup. Derek Rodriguez and the Giants will look to take advantage.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA. The rookie has completely exceeded expectations and his peripherals suggest that his early numbers are sustainable. Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games.

Jackson is so far 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Jackson struggled in consecutive starts before the break after opening strong for his new team. It’s hard to trust the veteran after consecutive years of complete ineptitude, as note that he was just 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in all “home” games last year.

The pick: I think we can throw stats out the window here. I’m basing this particular play on the starting pitchers. Rodriguez enters on top form, while Jackson looks poised for a major letdown against this tough Giants’ line-up. Play on San Francsico.

The set-up: I think Dan Straily and the offensively challenged Marlins struggle in the opener of this interleague series. Nate Eovaldi and the Rays will look to take advantage.

The pitchers: Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA. He’s been hit or miss this year and he comes into this one with a 1-3, 3.67 ERA record on the road.

Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA. He has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely pedestrian in others. Eovaldi has however been at his absolute best in front of the home town crowd this season by going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA thus far.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Miami is a poor 14-17 in its last 31 when playing with three or more days of rest while Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest. I like the Rays to take advantage of this favorable matchup and for Eovaldi to out duel his interleague counterpart. Play on Tampa.

The set-up: Two pitchers who put together great first half efforts go head-to-head in this National League contest on Friday afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. In his last start before the break he was forced to leave early after allowing three runs (just two earned) off four hits over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco. Overall though Flaherty has been consistent this year and he’ll surely benefit from the extra time off. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Lester is so far 12-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The veteran has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and there’s no question that he’ll also have benefited from the extra time off because of the All Star Classic. Note that he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA at home this season and 7-0 with a 2.22 ERA in all “day” games as well.

The pick: Recent form displayed by these starters, coupled with the overall situation point to runs being at a premium in this afternoon matchup. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half. The visitors go with Carlos Martinez and the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks.

The pitchers: Martinez is so far 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He most recently beat the Giants, giving up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out three. It was Martinez’s third straight victory and his ninth quality start of the season. After a small shaky stretch, Martinez is back on track across the board and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.57 ERA record on the road.

Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision against San Francisco. Starts like that though were few and far between over the first half for Hendricks, who has just two quality efforts out of his last nine trips to the hill. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 15-17 in its last 32 when playing with three or more days of rest. Martinez comes in as the much more consistent hurler and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t keep that momentum rolling with extra time off. Hendricks comes off a strong start, but I believe his inconsistencies come back to haunt him again. Play on St. Louis on the run-line.

The set-up: I think the massive talent gap on the mound in this one makes Jon Lester and the hard-hitting Cubbies well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The Padres go with the erratic Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Previous to this sub-par effort Lester had allowed just six earned runs over a 37 innings stretch, so I’m definitely not going to over-react. Note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.96 ERA on the road this year as well.

Lauer is so far 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Lauer though would allow nine batters to reach base, ultimately he was the beneficiary of a few timely double plays. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA at home this year.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Chicago is already 28-17 (+2.6 units) this season in all “day” games (also 16-6, +7.3 units against southpaws), while San Diego is just 12-16 (-1.7 units) in all “day” games (and only 10-20, -8.1 units against left-handed starters.) I’m banking on Lester coming in focused. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

The set-up: I think the Nationals offer great value in this bounce back spot after yesterday’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Corey Oswalt.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA. Hellickson has for the most part been solid this season (other than a disastrous outing against the Marlins on July 5th) and he’s been extra special on the road with a 3-1, 2.70 ERA thus far (also owns a minuscule 1.59 ERA in all “day” games.)

Oswalt is so far 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. He looked decent in just his second career start, but after posting a 5.32 ERA in Triple A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors, clearly the rookie still has some work to do before he can be trusted.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 37-29 against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 28-39 (-11.9 units) against right-handed starters this season. The Nationals are desperate for a victory, they’re out for revenge after yesterday’s setback and they have the better pitcher on the mound. Great value here, play on Washington.

The set-up: Masahiro Tanaka has struggled at times this year and I think he’s going to have his hands full in this difficult venue on Sunday afternoon. Trevor Bauer though is putting together his strongest campaign ever and I think he has a major advantage in friendly confines. 

The pitchers: Tanaka is so far 7-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Tanaka returns from the DL to make this start, his first since June 8th. He looked decent in one re-hab outing, but note that he still owns the sub-par 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Bauer is so far 8-6 with a 2.23 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Royals on Wednesday. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 59 batters and posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Note that Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA at home so far this year.

The pick: Tanaka got back on track after a shaky start before hitting the DL, but clearly he draws a tough task/opponent right out of the gate. Bauer on the other hand has been “on point” from Day 1 this year and he has in fact been getting stronger as the season has worn on. I like Bauer to continue that progression and overall I believe this is a great price. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: I think that Mike Clevinger will benefit from throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight. The hard-hitting Yankees send veteran CC Sabathia to the hill.

The teams: Sabathia is so far 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for five runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss on Monday. Sabathia’s weakness this year has been his play on the road, where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA.

Clevinger is so far 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget as well, allowing five runs off seven hits while also striking out 11 over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Monday.

The pick: Clevinger though hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his previous five starts and I think he’ll bounce back in fine fashion in Cleveland. I look for Sabathia’s road struggles to once again come back to haunt the veteran here as he closes out the first half with a whimper.

The set-up: Two pitchers who have to this point put together great 2018 campaigns go head-to-head in this one. Arizona goes with Zack Greinke, while the Braves go with Sean Newcomb. Ultimately I believe that Newcomb will benefit from the friendly confines.

The teams: Greinke is so far 9-5 with 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. It was his shortest start so far this season. Note that he owns a 4.31 ERA on the road, compared to 2.56 at home.

Newcomb is so far 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA. Newcomb comes off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Sunday, allowing five runs over 3.2 innings in the loss. Newcomb has admittedly struggled a bit of late, but note that he’s still a super 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is just 13-17 (-5.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Atlanta is 20-11 (+11.9 units) in all “day” games. I like Newcomb to bounce back at home, while I expect Greinke to have another difficult time on the road. Play on Atlanta.

The set-up: The talent gap on the mound this afternoon absolutely makes the Phillies worth the price of admission in this particular matchup in my opinion. The visitors go with ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Trevor Richards.

The teams: Nola is so far 12-2 with a 2.27 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Mets on Monday, striking out ten and giving up one hit and one walk in the commanding effort. Nola’s been strong on the road as well with a 4-2, 2.85 ERA.

Richards is so far 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits while striking out five and walking seven over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Note that he’s an uninspiring 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadlephia is 20-13 (+7.4 units) this year in all “day” games, while Miami is just 12-19 in all “day” games. I’m expecting another dominant effort from Nola. Lay the price.

The set-up: Jose Berrios has been better at home than on the road for the Twins this year. Chris Archer has been “hit of miss” for the Rays all season though and in my opinion, I think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently returned from injury to give up three runs off six hits with two walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Detroit on Monday. It was his first start in over five weeks and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to struggle here as well in his second start back.

Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Kansas City on Monday. Berrios has been quietly dominating for a while now, having posted quality starts in six of his last seven to the hill.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, Berrios has been better at home (7-2, 2.49 ERA) than on the road this season (2-5, 4.78). Expect that trend to continue as he takes advantage of Archer, who will surely need more time to get back to normal form after such a long lay off. Lay the price.

The set-up: After a great start to the season, Jake Arrieta has looked shaky over the last month for the Phillies. While that’s true, I still think he’ll have more than enough here to get the better of the Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chen. Great value overall on the visitors in this matchup in my opinion. 

The teams: Arrieta is so far 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He actually got back on track in his last start against the Pirates on Saturday by allowing two runs off six hits with one walk, while also striking out eight over seven innings. Arrieta looks to close the first half strong now and improve upon his respectable 5-4, 2.86 ERA record in all night games this season.

Chen is so far 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. The southpaw has struck out more than five opponents just once in its his 14 starts this year and note that he’s just 1-5 with a 6.09 ERA in all night contests.

The pick: Chen has been a major disappointment this season and he’s shown nothing whatsoever that he’ll be able to “flip a switch” here. Arrieta on the other hand clearly turned the corner again with his latest performance and there’s no reason not to think that the highly paid veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over into this one. I’m banking on that happening, play on the Phillies.

The set-up: JA Happ has earned a spot on the All Star team this year and he’s rumored to be a part of upcoming trade talks. Happ though has struggled of late and I think that David Price and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup.

The pitchers: Happ is so far 10-5 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently was crushed for six runs off four hits and six walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. It was Happ’s shortest start of the year and it made his ERA raise almost a full point. That’s now back-to-back dismal outings for Happ, a “sign of things to come” in my opinion. 

Price is so far 9-6 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Saturday. The silver lining behind the “ho-hum” performance was that he’d strike out nine and walk just one. Price has struggled a bit of late, but note that he’s a sharp 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA at home thus far and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here.

The pick: Happ’s recent form instils little confidence. I like Price to out duel his struggling counterpart and for the Red Sox to do the rest. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think Nick Pivetta will stumble in this inter-league contest. Conversely, the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman should benefit greatly by throwing on his home field in this particular matchup.

The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 5-7 with a 4.62 ERA. Pivetta most recently allowed three runs off five hits and two walks in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. He’d only last 2.2 innings. In his previous start he’d be rocked for seven runs over 1.2 innings in Washington, so there’s no question that he’s now trending in the incorrect direction. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA on the road as well.

Gausman is so far 4-6 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over five innings with five strikeouts in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Gausman comes into this one on top form, having posted a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last six outings. 

The pick: Note that Guasman has been solid at home all year as well with the 3.56 ERA. Pivetta’s recent slide is a sign of things to come in my opinion and I look for Gausman and the hungry home side to take advantage. Play on Baltimore.

The set-up: Kyle Freeland has quietly been flying “under the radar” for the Rockies and I think he’ll outlast his counterpart and defend his home field. Arizona will send Robbie Ray to the hill in this one.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-1 with a 5.23 ERA. Ray was originally slated to start in Friday in Atlanta, but he’s been moved up to Thursday. In his most recent outing he’d be blasted for four runs, including serving up three homers, while striking out seven and walking four. 

Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run off five hits and four walks while striking out four over five innings against Seattle on Saturday. Freeland has to be feeling confident here, as note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

The pick: Rays recent form suggests that a date at hitter friendly Coors Field is not what the doctor has in mind to get back into the winners circle. Admittedly Freeland is likely “pitching over his head” a bit this season, but there’s no reason not to think that he can’t continue his steady progression at home. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the Rockies.

The set-up: I think that Jacob deGrom is undervalued in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, but I think the home side has the advantage in this one.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.69 ERA. Velasquez hit the DL in his previous start with a liner off his arm, but he’s been given the green light to go in this one. Velasquez has been better on the road than at home, but note that he’s just 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in all “night” games.

deGrom is so far 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk while striking out eight over eight innings in a no-decision to Tampa on Friday. deGrom was efficient, throwing 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes and generating a whopping 22 swinging strikes in the dominant outing. 

The pick: deGrom has been sharp at home as well with a tiny 1.80 ERA. Velasquez has been “hit or miss” all season, but deGrom is in line for a Cy Young. When I add it all up, I think deGrom should be a larger favorite in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Mets.

The set-up: Ultimately I believe that the visitors could in fact be a lot bigger favorites in this particular matchup. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Dan Straily.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and three walks over six innings while striking out six in a victory over the Braves on Friday. Since being called up in mid-June he’s made four starts and over that stretch he’s had three quality efforts. Note that he has a very respectable 28:7 K/BB over 24 frames of work.

Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.55 ERA. Straily most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday. Straily’s win/loss record is not indicative of how he’s thrown this year, but I’ll point out that he’s still owns a poor 5.52 ERA in all “home” games.

The pick: Miami has struggled with offensive production and that doesn’t bode well facing the red hot Peralta. This is one which favors the hard-hitting visiting side and I look for it to take full advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: Lance Lynn has been far from perfect this year, but I still think he’s well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. Over 38.1 innings of work this year Smith owns a 5.40 ERA and 39:21 K/BB. Smith comes in off four scoreless against the Red Sox in relief, but he clearly faces a stiff test here in this difficult venue.

Lynn is so far 6-7 with a 5.21 ERA. Lynn comes in off a strong outing against the Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off six hits with two walks along with three strikeouts over six innings in the eventual victory. Over his last nine starts Lynn has posted a much more respectable 3.49 ERA and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Lynn has been steadily progressing for well over a month now and I think he’ll easily out duel his still untested counterpart. Smith’s road back to the majors has been a difficult one and while his future could be promising, this early afternoon matchup will prove to be too much for him to overcome in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

The set-up: I think the home side will find a way to get the job done here. The Mariners go with Mike Leake in this one, while the Angels go with Garrett Richards.

The pitchers: Leake is so far 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA. Leake faced these very Angels on Wednesday and he’d allow four runs over four innings off nine hits. Leake has actually been better on the road than at home, but his K/9 of 5.64 leaves everything to be desired.

Richards is so far 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA. Richards most recently struck out eight over 5.1 innings while also allowing three runs off four hits and a walk throwing opposite Leake last week. Richards owns the highly respectable ERA and he also owns a career-high 10.5 K/9. 

The pick: I believe Leake’s inconsistencies continue to haunt him in this one, while there’s no reason not to think that Richards won’t be able to carry over his recent momentum. Especially at home. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the Angels.

The set-up: I’m expecting a minor upset here at hitter friendly Coors Field. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Tyler Anderson.

The pitchers: Corbin is so far 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Most recently he’d give up one run off six hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Corbin would go on to induce 13 swinging strikes in what would be his third straight quality effort. So far the southpaw has been at his best on the road as well this season by going 2-0 with a 2.32 ERA.

Anderson is so far 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA. Anderson most recently went eight shutout innings against the Giants on Wednesday. That’s now back-to-back eight shutout frames for Anderson and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some predictable regression here. Note that he’s 2-3 with 5.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Note that Arizona is a solid 24-18 (+8.6 units) on the road this year, while Colorado is a putrid 18-22 (-12.4 units) at home. I’m banking on Corbin continuing his recent progression, while everything finally points to a bit of a letdown for Anderson, who comes in throwing “over his head.” Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: The A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea, while the Astros go with Justin Verlander. Manaea already has a perfect game this year and he’s been the backbone in Oakland’s rotation this season. Verlander continues to dazzle and in my opinion, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium in this one. 

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA. Most recently he’d give up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Wednesday. Manaea has now given up three or fewer runs in six straight starts and note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA on the road this year.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.15 ERA. Verlander most recently allowed two runs with ten strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston Thursday. Verlander is well on his way to the Cy Young with his impressive 154:24 K/BB.

The pick: Verlander owns a 1.87 ERA in all “night” contests as well this season. And take it for what you will, but Oakland has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 35 this season when the total is either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in 16 of 24 home games already this year when the total is in the same range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Two pitchers which had little expectations heading into the season, but who have been “better than advertised” collide on Tuesday and in my opinion, everything points to a bit of a “duel.” The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA. Hellickson comes in off an outing to forget though, giving up nine runs over 4.0 innings in a no-decision to Miami on Thursday. It should be noted though that it was reported just before his start that he was dealing with an illness, but that he’d still be able to take the mound. Clearly Hellickson was effected though. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA on the road this year.

Musgrove is so far 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA. Musgrove returns from the ten-day DL after throwing a bullpen session on Sunday. In his previous start he’d go seven scoreless against the Friars on June 29th. Note that Musgrove is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Not only has Washington already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 13 road games this season when the total in the contest is between 9 and 9.5, but it’s also seen it go “under” in 21 of its last 36 against clubs with losing records. And therefore it’s definitely worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” in all six home games that it’s played this year when the total is either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: I think that Phillies ace Aaron Nola is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The Mets send Corey Oswalt to the mound in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 11-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings with two walks and nine K’s in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Nola has thrown a quality start in 14 of his 16 outings this year. Note that he’s been solid on the road as well with 3-2, 3.23 ERA record.

Oswalt is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Wednesday. It was just his second career start and he was on a short leash, limited to only 65 pitches. Oswalt will be on a pitch count again tonight, which puts added pressure on the Mets relievers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is a super 38-27 (+11.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 25-35 (-10.9 units) against right-handed starters. No upset here, as I expect Nola to take care of business in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: Milwaukee beat the Braves 10-3 at home yesterday, while the Marlins come in off a 10-2 road win over Washington. I think the Brewers will carry over their momentum here though and I think that Chase Anderson will get the better of Jose Urena once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off three hits with a walk while striking out five in a no-decision to the Twins on Wednesday. Anderson comes into this one on top form, having allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts. Lastly note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA in all “night” games.

Urena is so far 2-9 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently went five scoreless frames against Toronto on Wednesday, unfortunate to earn a no-decision. Urena has gotten poor run support all season and note that he owns a pedestrian 2-4, 4.18 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is 44-27 (+17.5 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Miami is 26-39 (-1.7 units) against right-handed starters this season. Everything considered, a very fair price in my opinion. Play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: Texas looks poised for a classic “letdown” here in my opinion after its 3-0 road win at Detroit yesterday afternoon. Boston comes in off a 7-4 win at KC last night and I’m expecting it to carry over that momentum in the opener of this AL series in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.63 ERA. Minor most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Wednesday. Minor has looked brilliant at times this year, and very pedestrian in others, but note that he’s a terrible 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA on the road thus far.

Rodriguez is so far 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA. Rodriguez most recently went six scoreless while striking out six in a win over Washington on Wednesday. Rodriguez has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA at home this season.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Texas is a horrible 18-32 (-4.2 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Boston is 32-16 (+3.5 units) against clubs with losing records. Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission in this lop-sided matchup on the mound. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

The set-up: I think that the home side will find a way to bounce back after yesterday’s tight 3-2 defeat in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Jack Flaherty, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Flaherty most recently gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Flaherty has for the most part been as solid as St. Louis could have possibly asked for this year, but his latest outing certainly leaves everything to be desired.

The home side goes with Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out five in a loss to Colorado on Monday. It was a hard-luck loss overall for the southpaw, as the game was being played at hitter friendly Coors Field. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is a terrible 1-3 (-1.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while San Francisco is 11-7 (+1.5 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All things considered, I think a very fair price. Play on the Giants.

The set-up: Chicago will be eager to get back onto the field of play today after Saturday afternoon’s victory and it’ll be feeling pretty confident with Jon Lester on the hill. Cincinnati goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA. Castillo comes in off a rare decent outing, allowing one run over 6.2 innings over the toothless White Sox on Monday. Over six previous starts though he’d given up three earned runs or more in each (note that he’s a brutal 2-5 with an elevated 6.70 ERA on the road this year.)

Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Twins on Sunday. Lester wasn’t at his best, but the veteran still managed to find a way to win. Note that Lester comes in having won seven straight, while sporting a sharp 1-5, 1.49 ERA record at home.

The pick: Ultimately I believe that Lester is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Cubs.

The set-up: After yesterday’s high-scoring “slug-fest,” I’m expecting much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Lucas Giolito, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Giolito is so far 5-7 with a 6.93 ERA. He enters off a horrible start on Tuesday against the Reds, allowing seven earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings. Note that things won’t get any easier for Giolito this afternoon, but with his job on the line, we definitely don’t have to question his focus.

Keuchel is so far 5-8 with a 4.12 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Keuchel has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.96 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four as a road dog of +250 or more, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in ten of 13 already this season as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: After the Angels prevailed 3-2 yesterday, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these inter-league in-state rivals on Saturday night. The visitors go with Ross Stripling, while the Angels go with Deck McGuire.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off nine hits over six innings while striking out seven and walking one. Overall Stripling has been solid this year, but clearly this latest outing wasn’t an encouraging sign.

McGuire is so far 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA. McGuire most recently gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He was then sent back down to the minors, before then being called up again to make this start. More than anything I’m basing this play on the fact that I think McGuire is going to struggle mightily again in this one.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Dodgers have already seen the total go “over” the number in 37 of 56 against right-handed starters this season, while the Angels have seen the total go “over” in four of their last six after allowing two runs or less in their previous outing. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: I like the Mariners to bounce back here after yesterday’s 7-1 defeat. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side hands the ball to flame-thrower James Paxton.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.25 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off three hits over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Monday. Amazingly Freeland has a better record at Coors (2.89 ERA and .215 BAA) than on the road (3.50 and .247 marks.) Note that he’s also a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Paxton is so far 8-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Royals on Sunday, going eight scoreless and allowing two hits and two walks while striking out 11. Paxton is back on track after this gem and note that he has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA at home.

The pick: Freeland has struggled in “day” games and his peripherals suggest that he’s been performing over his head as well. He’s also been at this worst on the road this season. Paxton on the other hand has dominated at home this year and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. Play on Seattle.

The set-up: Chicago is out to avenge yesterday’s 3-2 setback. Matt Harvey has seemingly turned things around of late for the Reds, but I think he’s going to stumble in this difficult venue finally. The home side goes with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA. Most recently he went 5.2 scoreless while striking out six in a win over the Brewers on Sunday. As noted off the top, Harvey has been better of late, but note that he’s still an atrocious 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA on the road, while also sporting a ballooned 6.00 ERA in all “day” games.

Chatwood is so far 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA. Most recently he gave up seven runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Twins on Saturday. Chatwood’s been better on the road than at home this year, but note that he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Cincinnati is a terrible 21-27 (-2.4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Chicago is 18-11 against clubs with winning records. I think Harvey’s been “throwing over his head” of late, while Chatwood comes in focused and hungry. Play on the Cubs.

The set-up: Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle closed its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win. I think another low-scoring affair is in order in the Pacific Northwest in the opener of this series, as the visitors hand the ball to German Marquez, with the home side going with Felix Hernandez.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings while striking out nine in a dominant victory over the Dodgers on Saturday. Marquez has struggled at Coors Field this year, but he’s posted a highly respectable 3.07 ERA on the road.

Hernandez is so far 8-6 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over Kansas city on Saturday. Hernandez has been much better at home this year with a sub-4.00 ERA, while also striking out 49 batters over 54.1 frames of work.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 33 against teams with winning records this season, while Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is indeed a tad high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Padres enter off a 6-3 win last night in Arizona, but I think the home side will answer back on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Zack Godley.

The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA. Most recently he went five scoreless against the Pirates on Saturday. Lucchesi through struggled with his command, throwing only 52 of his 85 pitches for strikes. Note that since he’s returned from injury, Lucchesi has allowed eight walks over 10.2 frames of work.

Godley is so far 9-6 with a 5.07 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits with five walks while striking out five in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Godley struggled in that one from the get-go, but I think he’ll bounce back here, as note that he’s still 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA in all “night” games and 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA at home this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is still a horrible 8-16 (-4.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against left-handed starters. This line could be higher, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: These teams each had Thursday night off. I think though that Jacob deGrom is well worth the price of admission at home in this matchup. The Rays turn to Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Stanek is so far 1-2 with a 1.98 ERA. Stanek has a 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17.2 frames, but he’s only expected to see a maximum of two innings as a starter in this one. Stanek hasn’t worked more than two innings in any appearance this season.

deGrom is so far 5-4 with a 1.84 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings while striking out eight in an unfortunate loss to the Marlins on Saturday. deGrom has now posted nine straight quality efforts and he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here, as note that he owns a tiny 1.90 ERA at home and is 3-2 with a 1.81 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Stanek’s inability to go deep into this one puts added pressure on the Rays bullpen. I think deGrom will go deep and the Mets will finally give their ace the support he deserves. Lay the price, play on New York.

The set-up: A couple of decent hurlers go head-to-head at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, but I think that Mike Montgomery will take advantage of familiar surroundings and find a way to get the job done in “Friendly Confines.” The Reds go with Tyler Mahle.

The pitchers: Mahle is so far 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA so far this season. Most recently he gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Saturday. Mahle has been solid overall this season, I simply feel though that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Montgomery is so far 3-2 with a 3.55 ERA. Most recently he gave up five runs off seven hits over five innings while also striking out five in a fortunate victory over Minnesota on Friday. Montgomery was staked to an early lead and then he’d go after the strike zone, which led to the elevated score. Montgomery though has to be feeling confident about a bounce back here as he’s already 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Mahle has looked decent of late, but I think he stumbles here in this difficult venue. Montgomery on the other hand will be looking to improve after his latest sub-par effort and I think he’ll indeed answer the call. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Diamondbacks will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after last night’s 8-4 loss at home to the Cardinals. The Padres come to town off a 4-2 road loss in Oakland. The visitors hand the ball to Eric Lauer, while the home side goes with Shelby Miller.

The pitchers: Lauer is far 3-5 with a 5.08 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Lauer has probably pitched better than what his record would indicate, but note that he’s still a terrible 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA on the road this season.

Miller is so far 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. Miller most recently gave up six earned runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out six over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Miller’s second start of the year didn’t go as planned, but if there was a silver lining it was that he’d generate nine swinging strikes.

The pick: Miller faces the perfect opponent to get back on track here in his third start of the season. Miller has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around, and I think we’ll start to see that this evening. Lauer on the other hand has been poor in this spot all year and there’s no reason not to think that that trend won’t get carried over in this difficult venue. Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 28-33 against right-handed starters this year, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws. All things considered I think a great price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: The White Sox were busy losing 7-4 in Cincinnati last night, while the Astros were taking care of business with a series win in Texas this week, most recently a 6-5 extra-innings affair just last night. While these teams were both involved in higher-scoring games on Wednesday, I think that their Thursday series opener sets up as more of a “duel.” The White Sox go with Carlos Rodon on the hill this evening, while the Astros go with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA. Rodon comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday allowing five runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in the eventual loss. Rodon has looked decent at times over his first five starts and shaky in others, but I will point out that the White Sox have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of 16 already this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA. Verlander gave up five runs off nine hits over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. The silver lining behind the sub-par performance was that he’d go on to strike out eight. Has Verlander finally hit the wall after his improbable turn-around in helping the Astros to a World Series, or will the veteran get back on track with another consistent effort here? I’m banking on the latter being the case, note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The pick: It’s definitely worth noting as well that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 11 as home favorite in the -250 to -330 range already this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Houston held on for a 5-3 win last night in Texas, but I think we’ll see a much more lop-sided result this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with Mike Minor.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs (just one earned) off five hits with six strikeouts over six frames in a loss to the Rays on Friday. It was his first loss since April and note that he still hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any outing this year. Cole has to be feeling good in this spot as he’s 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA on the road this season.

Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.64 ERA. Minor most recently held San Diego to just one hit while striking out five over seven scoreless. Minor had a strong June, but I’m still skeptical that he’s completely “turned the corner.” Note that he has a poor 4.92 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is already 25-10 (+6.6 units) against divisional opponents, while Texas is just 14-24 (-2.3 units) against the division. I expect the defending champs to keep the pedal on the metal in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: Toronto roared from behind to win 8-6 over the visiting Metropolitans on Tuesday and with its ace coming to the mound, I’m predicting another victory on Wednesday as well. The visitors go with Corey Oswalt, while the home side goes with Marcus Stroman.

The pitchers: Oswalt is so far 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA. In his first career start he’d allow six runs over 2.2 innings to the Marlins on Friday. Oswalt isn’t expected to be in the starting rotation much longer with others returning from injury.

Stroman is so far 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits over seven innings while striking out four in a win over Detroit on Friday. It was his second straight quality effort since coming off the DL, so there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well.

The pick: Note as well that New York is now just 2-6 (-3.2 units) this season in all inter-league games, while Toronto is 8-3 (+6.5 units) in all inter-league contests. I think Stroman will easily out duel his younger counterpart, making the home side well worth the price of admission in my estimation.

The set-up: The Twins lost 2-0 yesterday and clearly they’ll be eager to bounce back here after that listless effort. While Tuesday’s contest stayed well “under” the posted number, I think that we’re in line for more of a “slug-fest” on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA. Berrios most recently got blasted for six runs off six hits with four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. And now Berrios has to pitch against another tough National League opponent in this inter-league contest. Note that while he’s 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home, Berrios is just 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA on the road.

Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up one run off two hits with five strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Reds on Friday. Note though that it was just Anderson’s second quality start since May. Also note that he sports a terrible 5.29 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Despite yesterday’s result, note that Minnesota has still seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 16 inter-league games this year. I’m banking on these starters getting the hook early and for this one to soar over, sooner rather than later.

The set-up: After their 8-5 win on Tuesday over the Braves, I think the Yankees will also deliver the goods on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors go with Julio Teheran, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia.

The pitchers: Teheran is so far 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA. Most recently he went six shutout innings in a victory over St. Louis on Friday. Teheran though has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this season and note that he owns a poor 5.50 ERA in all “day” games.

Sabathia is so far 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA. Sabathia comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Friday, giving up one run off six hits while striking out five over seven innings. The veteran threw 62 of his 97 pitches for strikes. Over 32.2 June innings the southpaw would post a 1.93 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 28:7 K/BB.

The pick: Note as well that Sabathia is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA at home this year. I think Teheran’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him once again, while Sabathia’s recent form suggests that he’s in line for another productive afternoon. I think New York is well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The set-up: The Rockies held on for the victory last night and I think the home side will once again find a way to deliver the goods on Tuesday. The Giants go with Chris Stratton on the mound this evening, while Colorado goes with Antonio Senzatela.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-5 with a 4.45 ERA. Stratton most recently allowed five runs off eight hits while striking out three in a no-decision to these very Rockies on Thursday. Note that in two starts against Colorado this year he’s allowed nine runs over nine innings of work.

Senzatela is so far 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA. With Jon Gray optioned on Saturday, Senzatela has been called up to make this start. Over 17.1 innings of relief he has a poor 6.23 ERA, but his 4.18 FIP is serviceable.

The pick: Let’s face it, neither of these starting pitchers has been very good of late. Take it for what you will though, but San Fran is already just 26-29 (-2.4 units) in all “night” games this year, while Colorado is 31-23 (+8.2 units) in all “night” games this season. As mentioned above, I think the Rockies build off their Monday night win. Play on Colorado.

The set-up: One of these starters has made the most of his time this year, while the other has for the most part struggled this season. Despite these facts, I firmly believe that Dallas Keuchel can get back on track here and take advantage of what I think to be a major mismatch on the mound. The Rangers go with Austin Bibens-Dirkx.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.22 ERA. Keuchel earned a no-decision against the Jays on Wednesday despite allowing six runs off seven hits and three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out three. Keuchel gave up five runs in the top of the first, but settled down after that.

Bibens-Dirkx is so far 1-1 with 3.57 ERA. Most recently he went five scoreless against the toothless Padres on Tuesday. So far the 33 year old has a 1.32 WHIP and 17:6 K/BB over 22.2 innings.

The pick: Houston has responded well in this spot all year though, going 3-0 (+3 units) after three or more consecutive losses (22-7, +13.2 units in the same position over the last three seasons!), while Texas has been a disaster in this position by going just 18-30 (-2.2 units) against clubs with winning records. I’m banking on Keuchel bouncing back and for the defending champs to respond as well. Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams went “under” the number in Game 1 of this inter-league series, with Boston coming out on top 4-3. Two more capable starters collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and once again I believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Brian Johnson, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Johnson went four innings in place of Steven Wright last week and manager Alex Cora will give him another shot here with several starters on the verge of returning from injury, but not ready quite yet. Johnson will obviously be looking to make the most of this opportunity and improve upon his respectable 2.45 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Roark is so far 3-9 with a 4.10 ERA. Roark comes off a tough loss to the Phillies on Thursday, allowing two runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five over six innings. Roark has been far from perfect this year, but he does own a 3.75 ERA in all night games.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 on the road this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in eight of nine at home with a money line set in the same range. This number is a little high in my estimation, play the “under.” 

The set-up: I think the home side will take advantage of this favorable match up on the mound in the opener of this inter-league series. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Shields is so far 3-9 with a 4.29 ERA. Shields comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout against the Twins on Wednesday. It was his first shutout of the season and in my opinion, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent here. Shields has looked much better over the last month, but I’m still very skeptical.

Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.85 ERA. Castillo most recently allowed five run off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. Note that he’s been at his best at home though with a respectable 4.10 ERA.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is a poor 3-9 (-3.9 units) in all inter-league games this year, while Cincinnati is 6-1 (+5.8 units) in all inter-league games.

I think Castillo gets back on track, I look for Shields to stumble and everything points to the home side taking advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two veteran studs go head-to-head in the opener of this inter-league series and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a classic “duel!” The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off eight hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Porcello hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been better than what Boston could have possibly asked for, coming in with a strong 1.13 WHIP and 99:24 K/BB over 105 innings of work.

Scherzer is so far 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Scherzer has gotten only nine runs of support over five June starts, leading to a 1-3 record, despite giving up only eight runs over 28 innings of work. Scherzer has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA at home and 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four this year as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in 12 of 17 inter-league games. I’m expecting a contested/tight battle in the latter frames. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Detroit bounced back on Sunday to win 9-1, but I think the home side will find a way to get get the job done in the finale of this series on Monday afternoon. The visitors go with Mike Fiers, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Fiers is so far 5-5 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off five hits with a walk while striking out five over seven innings in a 3-0 loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Fiers has been hit or miss this year, usually misfiring on the road with a 2-3, 5.15 ERA record to this point.

Borucki is so far 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Borucki comes in off a loss in his major-league debut against the Astros, allowing only two runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings. Borucki will look to make the most of his time until others return to the rotation.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring nine or more runs in its previous outing, while Toronto is 6-3 in its last nine after allowing nine or more runs in its previous game. I like the Jays to bounce back at home and for Borucki to out duel Fiers. Play on Toronto.

The set-up: Normally steady, I think both of these starters will get chased early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring over. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the Cardinals go with John Gant.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz is 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA so far. Foltynewicz most recently gave up one run off one hit with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Monday. Foltynewicz has the elite ERA, but note that he’s only gone into the sixth inning or beyond just five times this year.

Gant is so far 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA. Gant made a spot start against Cleveland on Monday and he’d go seven scoreless in the gem. Gant has made the most of his time as a starter this year, but his last effort was atypical. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.55 ERA in all “day” games to this point as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number ten of 15 home games this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while ATL has seen the total go “over” in 12 of 21 road games when the total is set between the same money line range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: The Twins and Cubs continue their inter-league series on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, this one highly favors the home side. Minnesota goes with Adalberto Mejia, while Chicago goes with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: Mejia was 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA for the Twins last year. This will be his season debut for the big club after posting an impressive June in which he had a 1.41 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over five starts in Triple A (note that he was just 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in all “day” games last year though.)

Chatwood is so far 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Chatwood returns from the Paternity list and while he owns the decent ERA, his 1.73 WHIP leaves everything to be desired. I will point out though that has so far he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 3.19 ERA.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is a terrible 26-30 (-5.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is a superb 12-5 (+4.3 units) against southpaws. All things considered, a great price in my estimation. Play on Chicago.

The set-up: The Angels were engaged in a pitchers duel in Boston last night, while Baltimore would fall at home to Seattle in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Felix Pena and the hard-hitting Angels have the advantage in this matchup on the mound though in my opinion, and I look for them to make the most of it. Baltimore sends David Hess to the hill to counter.

The pitchers: Pena is so far 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with six strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Sunday. Over two spot starts he’s posted a solid 12:4 K/BB.

Hess is so far 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA. Hess most recently allowed five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to Atlanta on Sunday. He’s now allowed five earned runs in each of his last three trips to the hill.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is already just 8-13 (-5.7 units) at home when the money line is set set between -150 and +150. I like Pena to continue his steady progression and for the Angels to deliver the goods. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Yanks had the night off, while Boston played to a lower-scoring pitchers duel at home to the Angels Thursday. This is an important early series and despite each of these starting pitchers having played solidly to this point, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks in the opener. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA. Rodriguez has been better than Boston could have possibly asked for this year, but note that he does enter off a terrible outing against the Mariners on Saturday, allowing five runs off seven hits over four innings.

Sabathia is so far 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Most recently he allowed two runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Sabathia has been decent of late, but note that the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 following a loss.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten “night” games. I’m expecting these hard-hitting line-ups to be the main story-lines in tomorrows summaries. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Houston roared back to beat Toronto 7-6 at home last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Tampa Bay had the night off on Wednesday. The visitors go with Lance McCullers on the mound this evening, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: McCullers is so far 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City. Over his last 31 frames of work McCullers has posted a strong 3.48 ERA and 31/11 K:BB.

Stanek is so far 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Stanek is only expected to see an inning or two, before making way for Ryan Yarbrough. He’s been good in his limited action, but clearly the book is still out on his overall performance to this point.

The pick: While Tampa has looked better overall of late, it’s still just 22-28 against teams with winning records this year. Houston continues to impress and it’ll look to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound as it comes in having gone 25-9 this season against clubs with losing records. Here’s a great opportunity for McCullers. No upset here, lay the price.

The set-up: The Phillies took two of three from the Nationals in the nation’s capital last week. Last night Philadelphia held on for a 3-0 win over the Yankees at home. Tanner Roark and Washington are back tonight, so the home side will counter with its ace Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Roark is so far 3-8 with a 4.27 ERA. Roark comes in off an outing to forget against Philadelphia on Friday, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings. Roark’s peripherals suggest that rockier times are ahead as well, as his 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 both point to regression sooner rather than later.

Nola is so far 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Nola most recently gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over six innings while also striking out five in Washington last weekend. Nola has to be feeling confident tonight as well as he’s 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Philadelphia has looked a lot better at the plate of late, as it produced considerable production in Washington last weekend. This play comes down to the starting pitchers for me though and in my opinion, Nola has a massive advantage over Roark. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw.

The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home.

Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon.

The set-up: Zack Greinke’s ERA and WHIP are aligning with his career numbers for the Diamondbacks as we approach the half way point. Marlins rookie Trevor Richards has looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others so far this season. While Richards’ potential seems tremendous at this point, I still think that the veteran Greinke is the correct call in this matchup.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA. Greinke comes in off a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday, giving up two hits with seven strikeouts over six scoreless. Greinke threw 53 of his 88 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year.

Richards is so far 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Richards comes in off a strong outing against Colorado on Saturday, giving up one run off three hits over six innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between (just his third quality outing out of nine trips to the hill) though and while he’s been better at home than on the road, I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this matchup.

The pick: Because take it for what you will, but Arizona is already 3-1 (+1.7 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is 5-12 (-5.2 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Greinke to continue his progression with another strong outing. Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams played to a low-scoring battle in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory last night and in my opinion, everything once again points to a “duel” in the Bay on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Freeland most recently went six innings and gave up two runs while striking out four in a win over the Mets on Thursday. Over 90.1 frames of work he’s posted a 77:31 K/BB.

Bumgarner is so far 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Most recently he gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight over eight scoreless in his first win of the year over the Padres on Thursday. Bumgarner threw 69 of his 100 pitches for strikes and after two mediocre outings after returning from the DL, the veteran clearly looks poised for another strong performance.

The pick: Dual-ing southpaws on Wednesday night. Recent form by Freeland suggests that he can continue his success, while Bumgarner is no doubt rounding into form as well. I’m expecting these horses to battle into the latter frames and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: Arizona grabbed the opener of this series 5-3 last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray, while the Marlins go with Wei-Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA. Ray completed two of three scheduled re-gab starts, but he has been given the green light to return to the rotation early. Ray was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, including 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA on the road. Ray will likely be on a bit of a count today, but I still think he’ll be more efficient than his erratic counterpart.

Chen is so far 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. To go along with his terrible ERA, Chen also sports a horrid 1.69 WHP over 49.2 frames of work. He’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s still an atrocious 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is already 17-9 (+9.4 units) against southpaws this year, while Miami is just 10-12 against left-handed pitching to this point. I’m banking on Ray to make the most of his time on the hill and for Chen to continue his steady decline down the proverbial crapper. Lay the price.

The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-0 setback, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back in the underdog role on Wednesday. The Yankees go with Luis Cessa, while the Phillies go with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Cessa is so far 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Cessa enters the rotation as a temporary sixth starter due to some upcoming scheduling issues. Cessa has shown plenty of promise, but he’s so far made all four of his appearances out of the bullpen. Note that he’ll be capped at around 70 to 80 pitches tonight.

Eflin is so far 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA. Eflin grabbed the victory Friday over the Nationals after allowing two runs and one walk with five strikeouts over five frames of work. Over his last four starts Eflin has gone 4-0 and posted a 2.28 ERA with 22 strikeouts and four walks spanning 23.2 innings of work. To go along with his overall respectable ERA, Eflin also has a sharp 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 49.2 frames. He’s been consistent at home a well with a 2-1, 3.63 ERA record.

The pick: The Yankees have an impressive line-up, but Eflin has a major advantage in this interleague matchup. Great value, play on the revenge-minded Phillies.

The set-up: The Cards scored the 4-0 win in the opener of this inter-league series and I think that runs will once again be at a premium on Tuesday night. The Tribe go with their ace Corey Kluber, while St. Louis goes with Carlos Martinez.

The pitchers: Kluber is so far 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up one hit with one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless. Kluber would throw 65 of his 96 pitches for strikes, while also inducing 15 swinging strikes. Kluber has now posted quality efforts in 15 of his 16 trips to the hill this year.

Martinez is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martinez hasn’t been at his best since returning from the DL, most recently he allowed seven runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Thursday. Martinez though has the track record and pedigree to return to form and he has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a sharp 2.29 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 12 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis has seen the total go “under” in seven of eight inter-league contests (note as well that the Indians have seen the total go “under” in five of seven inter-league games.) This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Seattle came out on top 5-3 yesterday and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with James Paxton, while the home side goes with Kevin Gausman.

The pitchers: Paxton is so far 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Paxton enters off an outing to forget against the Yankees, giving up four earned runs over five innings. The hard-throwing southpaw would have nine strikeouts though. Another bright spot was that his fast ball touched 97 MPH at times. While he hasn’t been at his absolute best of late, I don’t think there’s any reason to push the panic button at this point. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this season.

Gausman is so far 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman most recently allowed two runs and four walks with four hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman hasn’t won since May 11th. Note that he’s 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA at home.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 33-16 (+15.3 units) this year in all “night” games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in in all “night” games. I’m banking on Paxton going farther than Gausman in this one. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

The set-up: The punchless Padres fell 3-2 in San Francisco last night and I think they’re going to struggle in the opener of this inter-league series as well. Texas took two of three from the Twins over the weekend, but it enters off a 2-0 road loss in the final yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Rangers. San Diego sends Joey Lucchesi to the hill, while Texas goes with Cole Hamels.

The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Lucchesi returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the A’s and he’d be rocked for four runs off three hits over 1.2 frames of work. It’s hard to say where the rookie is at right now, but there’s no question that he enters another tough matchup on the road tonight.

Hamels is so far 4-6 with a 3.41 ERA. Hamels enters off a gem against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing one earned run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings. Hamels comes in sporting 92 strikeouts over 92.1 frames of work this year and note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Neither team has done very well in interleague action this season, however note that the Padres are just 8-14 (-2.6 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 3-1 (+1.4 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Hamels is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Play on Texas.