The Los Angeles Angels have won eight of their last 10 and started the second half of the season with 1-0 victory Friday after a walk-off homer courtesy of Mike Trout. I like the Halos in tonight's match-up as well as they take on the Boston Red Sox for the middle-game of a three-game set.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The visiting Red Sox will hand the ball to Rick Porcello (5-9, 5.90 ERA) who's struggled away from home all season. He lasted only two innings of an 11-2 loss at Toronto his last start away from home conceding seven runs on seven hits with three homers and he's 1-5 with a 7.16 ERA in nine road-starts for the season. This contest should be no different as he's already been hammered for seven runs on just as many hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings against the Halos back in May. The Angels will counter with Garret Richards (9-6, 3.53 ERA) who's coming off a poor outing when he surrendered four runs on 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss at Safeco. He's been far better home in L-A. where he's 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA in seven starts this year.  

2. Road Woes - The Red Sox have lost seven of the last 10 meetings at Angel Stadium of Anaheim, a stadium where Porcello is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA.  

3. X-Factor - Mike Trout is 6-for-18 in previous meetings with Porcello and he has six homers in his last seven games.  

Selection: This is a play on the Los Angeles Angels (10*)

The Milwaukee Brewers finished the first half of the season sitting bottom of the NL Central, 16.5 games back of the Pittsburgh Pirates who sitting second in the same division. I like the Brew Crew to come out ahead of tonight's contest though as the teams open a three-game series at Miller Park Friday night. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to Charlie Morton (6-2, 4.15 ERA) who's been hit extremely hard of late going 1-2 with an 8.68 ERA in his last four outings. Odds are he'll struggle at Milwaukee tonight again as he's compiled a 9.24 ERA over three road-starts on the year, and he's 3-6 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 career starts despite holding the Brewers scoreless over 7 1/3 innings home at Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Brewers will counter with Mike Fiers (4-7, 3.96 ERA) who's off a rather disappointing start when he conceded four runs on just as many hits over six innings against the Braves on July 8. He had gone 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his previous three starts though and he's improved by each month gone this season. 

2. Situational - The Brewers have won eight of their last 10 when coming up against a right-handed starter and for all their struggles at home, remember that they've won four straight at Miller Park with Fiers on the mound. Pittsburgh meanwhile has lost three of its last 10 away from home with Morton getting the start. 

3. X-Factor - Ryan Braun is 8-for-20 with an RBI against Morton lifetime. 

Selection: This is a play on the Milwaukee Brewers (10*)

The Atlanta Braves entered the All Star break on the back of five consecutive losses, but tonight's opponent the Chicago Cubs have struggled over their recent games as well losing three of their last four. I like the Braves to end their skid tonight when the teams open the second half of the season with a three-game set at Turner Field.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.55 ERA) who's tossed 22 1/3 scoreless innings over his last three starts. Only one of those outings were on the road though were he has a 4.24 ERA compared to a 2.81 ERA home in Chicago and he's been better in the daylight than under the lights this season as well. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran (6-4, 4.56 ERA) who's been rock solid home at Turner Field all season long going 5-0 behind a 2.04 ERA in eight home-starts on the year. He's also an undefeated 2-0 with a 3.81 ERA in four career starts versus Chicago. 

2. Home Cookin' - The Braves have won six straight as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and they've won seven straight overall when hosting the Cubs.  

3. X-Factor - Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo are just a combined 3-for-23 against Teheran in previous match-ups.   

Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves (10*)

The Colorado Rockies may be sitting bottom of the NL West, but they've played some good baseball of late and can complete the sweep of a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves with another win Sunday afternoon. I like the price we get on the home-team to head into the All Star break on a positive note with more to promise in the second half of the season. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Braves will hand the ball to Alex Wood (6-5, 3.34 ERA) who was torched for four runs on 10 hits in six innings against the Phillies his last full game. He hurled just two pitches in Thursday's series-opener 5-3 loss as he didn't return after a rain delay of more than two hours. His rhythm must be disturbed and I think the Rockies will get to him early in this contest. Colorado will counter with Chad Bettis (4-4, 4.95 ERA) who was rocked for 10 runs on eight hits with four homers in just 2 1/3 innings of a 10-2 loss against the Angels his last start. He's likely to come in determined to bounce back here and the Braves does not have the same weapons to hurt Bettis in a similar manner.  

2. Home Cookin' - The Rockies have won five of their last six as a home favorite and they're 5-0 in the last five meetings with the Braves at Coors Field.  

3. X-Factor - Charlie Blackmon is on fire going 14-for-31 in his last seven games and coming off a 3-for-4 performance yesterday. 

Selection: This is a play on the Colorado Rockies (10*)

The All Star break might come at a bad time for the surging Boston Red Sox who have won nine of their last 12 games. They defeated the New York Yankees 5-3 yesterday to equalize this three-game set at Fenway Park, I like the price we get on the hosts to claim the rubber-match this afternoon.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 4.45 ERA) who's been pretty sharp of late going 3-0 in his last four starts surrendering only six runs over 22 1/3 innings of work. He's generally struggled away from home this year though compiling a 5.17 ERA over nine road-starts. The Red Sox can counter with Wade Miley (8-7, 4.50 ERA) who's 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA over his last five starts. He's 0-1 in three career meetings with the Yankees despite decent 3.79 ERA, and considering how the Red Sox have swung their bats of late he's looking good to finally book a W against the bitter AL East rivals. 

2. Home Cookin' - The Red Sox have won five of their last six home at Fenway Park and they're 5-0 in Miley's last five starts as a home favorite. The Yankees meanwhile have lost five of their last six away from home coming into the game as an underdog. 

3. X-Factor - Pablo Sandoval is 2-for-8 so far in this series and he's 12-for-17 with three doubles and a homer off Eovaldi lifetime. 

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 last night, and I expect another low-scoring contest at Tropicana Field Saturday afternoon when the two teams will square off in the middle game of this three-game series.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Astros will hand the ball to their ace Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.14 ERA) who's been exceptional all season long. He has the lowest ERA in the American League and had tossed 19 shutout innings before giving up three runs in six innings his last start. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 2.47) who's had a great season as well. He will make his first start since June 5 due to an oblique injury, and what better place to make the comeback than at the Trop where he's compiled a 1.64 ERA over five starts this season.  

2. Houston's Bats - Last year's AL batting champ Jose Altuve is hitting .342 in July. 

3. X-Factor - The Astros are 19-7 in Keuchels last 26 starts. 

Selection: This is a play on the Houston Astros (10*)

The Phillies were hammered in a 14-2 loss at AT&T Park last night, and that was with their ace Cole Hamels on the mound. It's not going to get any easier tonight with a win-less rookie getting the start. On a positive note, they might have more success against veteran Ryan Vogelsong than they had against Madison Bumgarner last night. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - David Buchanan will be on the mound for Philly, still in search of his first win of 2015. Buchanan (0-5, 8.76 ERA) gave up seven runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis in his last start. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong, and the veteran gave up five runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings against Philly earlier this year. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Phillies have owned Vogelsong, hitting a combined .342 against the right-hander. Ryan Howard is 5-for-10 with three RBIs lifetime versus the veteran. 

3. X-Factor - The over is 15-5-1 in the Phillies last 21 overall, and 6-0-1 in their last seven versus San Francisco. 

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Giants to go OVER the total (10*)

The New York Yankees picked up a third consecutive win when they claimed the opener of a three-game set at Fenway Park 5-1 last night. It was the Boston Red Sox's first loss in five games and I like them to bounce back with a win tonight to equalize the series.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Ivan Nova (1-2, 2.65 ERA) who'll make his fourth start of the year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He struggled in his last outing conceding four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks in five innings of an 8-1 loss against the Rays. The 28 year old is 3-3 with a swollen 5.00 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Red Sox who can counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.69 ERA). He's allowed only a pair of runs over 11 innings in his last two starts combined and will face the Yankees for the first time.  

2. Situational - The Red Sox have won eight straight coming off a loss and they're 4-0 in their last four games as a home favorite. The Yankees meanwhile are 1-4 in their last five games as a road underdog. 

3. X-Factor - Alejandro De Aza was 1-for-3 with two strikeouts last night but might have a more successful evening tonight as he's 5-for-7 with a homer against Nova lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 last night, and I expect another low-scoring contest at Tropicana Field Saturday afternoon when the two teams will square off in the middle game of this three-game series.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Astros will hand the ball to their ace Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.14 ERA) who's been exceptional all season long. He has the lowest ERA in the American League and had tossed 19 shutout innings before giving up three runs in six innings his last start. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 2.47) who's had a great season as well. He will make his first start since June 5 due to an oblique injury, and what better place to make the comeback than at the Trop where he's compiled a 1.64 ERA over five starts this season.  

2. Houston's Bats - The Astros have scored only 17 runs over their last seven games with nine of them coming in a 9-4 win at Cleveland. They've scored four over their last four games.  

3. X-Factor - 10 of the last 11 meetings at the Trop have gone under the total.  

Selection: This is a play on HOU@TB to go UNDER the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants have lost eight of their last nine overall, and they now sit in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Dodgers. The good news is that they host the Phillies for a three game series prior to the All Star Break, and I like the Giants to get back on track tonight in the series opener. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Cole Hamels will be on the mound for the Phillies, coming off another dominant outing. Unfortunately for Hamels though, he's still win-less in his last seven starts. He has a losing road record, going 3-4 with a 3.64 ERA outside of Philly, and he's been hit hard by the Giants in his career. San Francisco will counter with Madison Bumgarner, who was roughed up in Washington in his last start. Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA in nine starts at AT&T Park so far. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Buster Posey has missed the last few games to rest a sore hamstring, but he's likely to be back in the lineup tonight. Posey is 9-for-18 (.500) lifetime versus Hamels. 

3. X-Factor - The Phillies have seen the total go over at a rate of 14-5-1 in their last 20 overall.

Selection: This is a play on PHI@SF to go over the total (10*)

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-2 last night when the teams opened a four-game set at Safeco Field. The M's recorded a season-high 19 hits while the Halos had eight, but I expect both teams to struggle at the plate tonight in what should be a low-scoring contest.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Angels will hand the ball to Hector Santiago (5-4, 2.40 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts conceding just a total of two runs on eight hits and four walks over 20 innings of work, seven innings of one-run ball against the M's on June 28 included. The Mariners will counter with Mike Montgomery (4-2, 1.62 ERA) who's been terrific over his last three starts as well, conceding only one earned run over 23 2/3 frames. The 26 year old rookie will make his first career start against the Angels tonight, a situation usually favoring the pitcher.  

2. Situational - The under is 7-1 the in Angels last eight games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 8-1-1 in their last 10 on the road when facing a left-handed starter. None of Montgomery's last four starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 have gone over.  

3. X-Factor - Santiago has the current members of the Mariners limited to a .196 batting average.  

Selection: This is a play on LAA@SEA to go UNDER the total (10*)

The AL East worst Boston Red Sox will host the division-leading New York Yankees for a four-game set at Fenway Park starting Friday night. The Red Sox are off four consecutive wins and I like the price we get on the hosts to keep rolling behind a red hot pitcher.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Michael Pineda (8-5, 3.79 ERA) who may be off seven innings of five-hit ball against the Rays, but he had struggled in each of his last two starts prior surrendering a total of 11 runs (10 earned) on 18 hits over 11 1/3 innings. This will be his first meeting with the Red Sox for the season but he has a 5.40 ERA in four career starts against them. The Red Sox will counter with Clay Buchholz (7-6, 3.27) who's off four straight wins over which he's allowed only a total of three earned runs in 31 innings for an 0.87 ERA. This should be as good of a spot as any to better his rather poor numbers against the Yankees. 

2. Situational - The Yankees have lost four of their last five coming into the game as a road underdog and they've also lost four of their last five series-openers. The Red Sox meanwhile are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite and they've also won four straight when facing a right-hander starter. 

3. X-Factor - Xander Bogaerts is 2-for-4 against Pineda lifetime, but more importantly is that he's coming into this game red hot going 13-for-30 with eight RBIs over a seven-game hitting streak.  

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)

The Miami Marlins are coming off four consecutive losses and I think they're coming into this series opener against the Cincinnati Reds as unmotivated big favorites. The Reds had their series finale at Washington last night postponed, but they had won the first two against the Nats and I like them to keep that momentum going.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Fish will hand the ball to Jose Fernandez (1-0, 4.50 ERA) who'll make just his second start of the season. He conceded three runs on seven hits in six innings against the Giants a week ago and is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati who will counter with Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.58 ERA). The 23 year old rookie is win-less over his last two starts but tossed 5/3 innings of one-run ball at Citi Field his last road-start and he's 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA over six road-outings in his career.  

2. Road Warriors - The Reds are 24-17 against the run-line away from home for the season and they've won seven of the last eight meetings at Miami straight up.  

3. X-Factor - Joey Votto is 1-for-4 with two walks against Fernandez lifetime but is coming in hot going 5-for-10 over two games against the Nats.  

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (8*)

The White Sox are on a roll, coming into this afternoon's game against the Blue Jays as winners of six of their last eight. The Jays have dropped five of their last seven, and they send a struggling knuckleballer to the mound today. The price is right to back the home team here in Chicago today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - R.A. Dickey will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's still win-less on the road this season. Dickey (3-9, 5.02 ERA) gave up five runs on 11 hits over 5.2 innings in a loss at Detroit in his last start. He's 0-6 with a 6.04 ERA in eight starts on the road so far. The White Sox counter with Jeff Samardzija, and he's coming off an outstanding performance in a 3-2 win over Baltimore.

2. Home Cookin' - Samardzija is 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA in seven starts at U.S. Cellular Field. The White Sox are a solid 22-17 at home while Toronto is just 18-25 on the road.

3. X-Factor - The White Sox have won five of their last seven home meetings versus Toronto, and five of Samardzija's ast seven home starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Chicago White Sox (10*)

The Kansas City Royals wrap up this home series versus the Rays this afternoon, looking to complete the sweep. I like Tampa as an underdog on the runline, facing a Royals starting pitcher that is coming off an injury and hasn't pitched for almost a month.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Yordano Ventura will go for the Royals, coming off a four week layoff to rest a sore arm. Prior to being shut down he had lost four straight, and seven of eight. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts at Kauffman Stadium. The Rays counter with Nathan Karns, who racked up a career high 10 Ks in a no decision versus the Yankees in his last outing.

2. Previous History - Karns has been at his best during the day, going 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA in five starts in the afternoon this season. He's also 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts on the road.

3. X-Factor - Alex Gordon suffered a groin injury last night, and he's been placed on the 15 day DL. Gordon was 7-for-10 with a home run and six RBIs through the first three games of this series.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Rays RL (8*)

The Dodgers have split the first two games of this home series against the Phillies, but they are a heavy favorite in tonight's Game 3 with their ace on the mound. We've seen plenty of runs scored in this series so far, but tonight's game looks like it could be a pitcher's duel. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw (5-6, 3.08 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits over seven innings in a 2-1 home loss to the Mets his last time out. While he has struggled for much of the season, his numbers at home remain impressive. He's 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA in eight starts at Chavez Ravine. The Phillies counter with rookie Adam Morgan, who has looked impressive in both his two big league starts. 

2. Previous History - Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts versus the Phillies, and only the Mets have scored fewer runs than Philly away from home. 

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers have really struggled against left-handers this season, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored, batting just .243 against southpaws. 

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Dodgers to go UNDER the total (10*)

The St. Louis Cardinals opened this four-game set at Wrigley Field with a 6-0 win Monday but suffered a pair of losses to the Chicago Cubs yesterday. I think they'll salvage a split of the series with win tonight though in what should be a straight-up pitchers duel.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to Jason Hammel (5-4, 2.89 ERA) who's 0-2 with a 3.25 ERA in his last five starts. The 32 year old ace conceded four runs on six hits in four innings of a 4-1 loss at Busch Stadium on June 28 and the Cubs have lost four of his last five starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.66 ERA) who'll seek a third consecutive quality start. He held the Cubs to one run on six hits in six innings in a 8-1 win on June 27 and he's  3-1 with a 2.87 ERA in six career outings against the Cubs. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - There are several Cardinals batters with good numbers against Hammel, among others Jason Heyward (9-for-16) and Jhonny Peralta (9-for-22).  

3. X-Factor - The Cardinals have won eight of Wacha's last 10 road starts.  

Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals (10*)

The Seattle Mariners and the Oakland Athletics are sitting bottom-two in the AL West pretty far off the Astros who hold down the top spot. These teams have split the first two of a four-game series at O.Co. Coliseum, but the Mariners impressed in last night's 9-5 win and I think the price is right to back them in tonight's contest as well.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Mariners will hand the ball to their ace "King Felix" Hernandez (10-4, 3.05 ERA) who's coming off six innings of one-hit ball at Anaheim. He's 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA over seven starts away from home this season and 10-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 20 career starts at Oakland. The A's will counter with Kendall Graveman (5-4, 3.47 ERA) who's coming off a strong performance as well hen he held Colorado scoreless over seven innings home at Oakland. He's otherwise struggled in front of the home-fans, sitting on a 1-3 record behind a 5.86 ERA in five home-starts for the season. 

2. Situational - Seattle has won six of the last seven meetings at Oakland it's 13-3 in Hernandez's last 16 starts during game 3 of a series. Oakland meanwhile has lost five of its last six games as a home underdog. 

3. X-Factor - The Mariners have 17 homers in their last 12 games. 

The Detroit Tigers snapped a three game losing streak with a win over Toronto in Game 1 of this series at Comerica Park last night. They Blue Jays rally came up short despite scoring six runs in the eighth inning. The Tigers send David Price to the mound here on the 4th of July, and I like their chances of handing the visiting Jays a second straight defeat. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Tigers should be in good shape with Price (7-2, 2.62 ERA) as they are 8-2 in his last 10 starts. He allowed four runs on six hits over six innings in a no decision against Chicago in his most recent outing, but the Tigers rallied to win that game. He owns the Blue Jays, with a record of 6-0 and a 3.07 ERA in his last eight versus Toronto. The Jays counter with R.A. Dickey, who is 0-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road this season. 

2. JD Martinez - The Tigers slugger was 2-for-4 with a pair of RBIs last night, and he's 9-for-18 (.500) over his last four games. Martinez is 2-for-6 lifetime versus Dickey. 

3. X-Factor - The Jays are 8-20 in Dickey's last 28 road starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Detroit Tigers (10*)

The AL West-leading Houston Astros will visit the AL East-worst Boston Red Sox for game 1 of a three-game set at Fenway Park Friday night. The Astros are riding a four-game winning streak and have averaged five runs per game over their last five while the Red Sox also have won four of their last five and trounced the Blue Jays 12-6 yesterday. I think we can expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Boston tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Red Sox will hand the ball to Justin Masterson (3-2, 5.58 ERA) who was sharp in his comeback from a five-week stint on the DL due to tendinitis in his right shoulder when he tossed five innings of one-run ball at Tampa Bay. He's been quite poor home at Fenway this season though conceding 14 runs in 20 innings of work for a 6.30 ERA. The Astros will counter with 26 year old right-hander Dan Straily who will make his season-debut tonight taking over the recently demoted left-hander Brett Oberholtzer's spot in the rotation. He's not been particularly impressive in the minors with Triple-A Fresno going 6-6 with a 4.06 ERA for the year and this is a bad time to face a surging Red Sox offense coming off a big Thursday.  

2. Jose Altuve - The Astros's second baseman is having another productive year batting .298 for the season and he's been very good of late batting .368 over a 10-game hitting streak. He's enjoyed recent visits to Fenway as well going 6-for-10 in his last two games there. 

3. X-Factor - Only one of the Red Sox's last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 has gone under.   

Selection: This is a play on HOU@BOS to go over the total (8*)

The Blue Jays bats came alive on Canada Day at Rogers Center, and the Jays defeated the Red Sox by a score of 11-2. They will look to salvage a split in the final game of this series tonight, and I think we could see another high scoring affair with a couple of below average pitchers starting in this one. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Wade Miley will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's improved since a rough start to the season. Miley (7-7, 4.38 ERA) gave up just a couple runs on five hits over 6.1 innings in a loss to Tampa in his latest start. He allowed four runs on eight hits in a 7-0 home loss to the Jays earlier this season. The Jays will counter with rookie southpaw Matt Boyd, who gave up three home runs in his debut. 

2. Toronto Bats - Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak all went deep yesterday, and the Jays still lead the majors in scoring with 435 runs (67 more than the Yankees). 

3. X-Factor - Jose Reyes is 6-for-13 (.462) in this series so far, and he's 4-for-8 lifetime versus Miley. 

Selection: This is a play on the BOS@TOR to go over the total (10*)

We've seen plenty of action over the plate in the first two games of this series as the Pittsburgh Pirates have defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-4 and 9-3. Runs should come fairly easy for both teams today as well considering the pitching match-up, and I think the value is on the over here.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Tigers will hand the ball to Kyle Ryan (1-1, 4.56 ERA) who missed his last start due to a rainout. He has struggled lately conceding a total of nine runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings in his last three outings and has only 11 strikeouts but eight walks over 23 2/3 innings this season. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano (4-6, 3.21 ERA) who started the season excellent but has had a tough time of late. Liriano has conceded a total of seven runs on 13 hits in 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts and he has a 5.59 ERA against the Tigers lifetime. 

2. The Tigers Bats - The Tigers have a team batting average of .276 against left-handers for the season which is among the best marks in baseball, and they have a team batting average of .293 against Liriano. 

3. X-Factor - The Pirates Neil Walker is off a 4-for-6 performance with two homers last night and is 6-for-12 in the series so far. 

Selection: This is a play on PIT@DET to go over the total (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays bats have been very quiet so far in this series, but the Cleveland Indians have been all the hotter hammering in 21 runs over the first three games of the series. The number on the total looks way too low for me considering the potential in both teams line-up, and I think we should see this one fly over by quite some margin. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Matt Moore who will make his first start for almost 14 months. The 26 year old southpaw made just two starts in 2014 before suffering an elbow injury that forced him to have Tommy John surgery. He has not gone deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his rehab outings and has a 3.78 ERA in four career outings versus Cleveland who will counter with its struggling ace Corey Kluber (3-9, 3.66 ERA). Kluber is 0-4 with a 3.97 ERA in his last five starts while yielding 10 walks and three homers. He has a 3.66 ERA and has been nowhere near the form that saw him claim the AL Cy Young trophy last year.  

2. Cleveland's Bats - The Tribe have averaged 5.33 runs per game over their last six and have hit southpaws hard all season long scoring a major league best 119 for the year.  

3. X-Factor - David DeJusus and Evan Longoria are a combined 8-for-22 against Kluber in previous meetings.  

Selection: This is a play on CLE@TB to go over the total (10*)