The set-up: Houston opened its final seven-game homestand last Thursday against the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card spot. However, the Astros lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Houston then lost 4-3 in 11-innings Monday to the Mariners, dropping them 3 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot and with just five games left. The Mariners moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Astros in the AL wild-card race but they were still two games behind the Orioles, who were idle on Monday. The Astros won 8-4 Tuesday night, moving them within 2 1/2 games of the Orioles (5-1 losers at Toronto). That Baltimore loss allowed Seattle to remain within 1 1/2 games of the Orioles, despite Tuesday’s defeat. However, time is running out on both the Mariners and the Astros, as the teams cap a three-games series Wednesday afternoon in Houston.  The pitching matchup: James Paxton (5-7, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Doug Fister (12-12, 4.42) does so for Houston. Paxton is 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA over three career starts against the Astros (Seattle is 0-3). He comes off ending a five-start winless streak by allowing just one run on five hits while striking out nine over seven innings against Minnesota in his last outing. Fister was first selected by Seattle back in the 2006 draft (seventh round) and makes his eighth career start against the Mariners (he’s 4-2 with a 4.64 ERA with his teams going 4-3). The pick: Paxton is 0-2 versus Houston this year (posting a 6.00 ERA) and Fister limps in winless over his last six outings (he’s 0-3 and the team 0-6), with a 9.35 ERA, after allowing six or more ERs in three of the starts. The Over is a 10* play.

Note: This play still stands after the pitching change from De Leon to Kenta Maeda. Obviously, I now have an even stronger feeling that the Dodgers will win! The set-up:  Los Angeles Dodgers capturing their fourth consecutive NL West title on Sunday and got to savor it with a Monday off day. Dave Roberts' club gets back to the business at hand on Tuesday, opening a three-game series versus the San Diego Padres, before finishing the season with what will be a meaningless (to them) three-game series in San Francisco against the Giants this weekend. Meanwhile, the 66-90 Padres are wrapping up what’s becoming a familiar fate, as the team will finish with a losing season for the sixth straight time. The pitching matchup: Two rookies take the mound tonight, Jose De Leon (2-0, 5.52) for LA and Paul Clemens (3-5, 4.48 ERA) for SD. De Leon is hoping he can be included as LA's fourth postseason starter, following Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill. This will be just his fourth career start and the best of those came against these Padres, when struck out nine in his major-league debut, a 7-4 victory over San Diego back on September 4 (he allowed three ERs in six innings). Clemens has answered a three-start losing skid by yielding just two unearned runs over 10 2/3 innings in his last two outings and this marks his 11th career start but first vs. the Dodgers. The pick: The Padres helped the Dodgers claim the NL West title due in large part to their success versus second-place San Francisco, splitting a four-game series over the weekend and winning eight of 10 encounters since the All-Star break with the Giants. Yes, the Dodgers have clinched the NL West title but they are not done. They are fighting the 91-65 Nationals for home-field advantage in their NLDS. Washington's lead over Los Angeles is down to one game after a 14-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday and I expect LA to extend its current winning streak to six games tonight. The Dodgers are an 8* play.

The set-up: The Rangers lost 8-3 last night at home vs. the Brewers and that allowed the idle Red Sox (who currently own an 11-game winning streak) to move a half-game ahead of them for the AL’s best record. More bad news came Monday with Cleveland’s 7-4 win and the Rangers are now just a half-game up on the Indians. If Texas falls behind both teams, its ALDS matchup would come on the road, as would its potential ALCS matchup. I noted Monday that while Milwaukee’s 30-46 road record is among the worst in MLB, the Brewers have now won 11 of their last 16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Jimmy Nelson (8-15, 4.50 ERA) goes for Milwaukee up against Texas’ A.J. Griffin (7-4, 4.94 ERA). Nelson leads the National League in losses and enters this game having posted a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts, while giving up five HRs during that stretch. Griffin lasted just 1 2/3 innings in his last outing, leaving him winless over his last three starts, posting a 9.24 ERA during the stretch. The pick: Looking at just the starting pitchers would cause one to play the over. However, the Texas bats have been extremely quiet, scoring just 28 runs over the last nine games (that’s 3.11 per game!). As for Milwaukee, despite the team’s 8-3 win last night, the Brewers enter tonight’s game having scored just 26 runs over their last eight games (3.25 per game). The Under is a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Kansas City Royals came into the 2016 season off back-to-back World Series appearances, including a win last season over the Mets. However, the 79-77 Royals will be watching the 2016 postseason on TV this year. As for the Minnesota Twins, they were a surprise in 2015, finishing above .500 at 83-79 and in second place in the AL Central. But instead of taking a step forward, the Twins sit 56-100, leaving them with MLB’s worst overall record, as well as its worst moneyline mark at minus-$3328. The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios (2-7, 8.88 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota and Ian Kennedy (11-10, 3.64 ERA) goes for Kansas City. Berrios has endured a rocky rookie season with just one quality start among the 12 he’s made. There is not just that ‘ugly’ 8.88 ERA to report but also his 1.99 WHIP and .324 BAA! Berrios makes his 13th start here, after Minnesota has gone 2-10 (minus-$673) in his first 12. Kennedy comes off a 4-3 loss at Cleveland last Wednesday, his first road defeat since July 1. Kennedy had an abysmal 0-3 record (4.96 ERA) in July but his 2.36 ERA since July 30 leads the AL. The pick: Berrios has proven inconclusively to be unready for primetime. Meanwhile, Kennedy has allowed just 18 ERs in 11 starts since his last defeat, 6-2 at home against the LA Angels back on July 25 (again, that’s a 2.36 ERA). Also note that Kennedy is 4-1 with 3.34 ERA in six career starts (teams are 5-1) against the Twins. Kansas City is an 8* play. 

The set-up: Houston opened its last four-game home series (Thursday-Sunday) with the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card slot but lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Seattle won two of three games over the Twins at Minnesota Friday through Sunday and now sits at 82-73. That leaves the Mariners 2 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot and the Astros check in a half-game back of Seattle at 82-74. Do either of these teams have a realistic wild card chance? Probably not and only a three-game sweep by one or the other would give that team at least a “whiff of a chance.” The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.04 ERA) goes for Seattle and Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for Houston. Iwakuma is 35-year-old and won 14 and 15 games in his first two full seasons of 2013 and 2014. He then won just nine games in 2015 (injuries limited him to 20 starts) but has rebounded to win 16 games this year in 31 starts. However, his 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and opponents BA of .280 are all career highs. McHugh enters on a seven-start unbeaten streak in which he’s gone 5-0 (Astros are 7-0). The pick: Iwakuma is coming off an abysmal outing (six runs allowed on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to Toronto last Tuesday) but I expect him to rebound here vs. a Houston team which averaged just 3.5 RPG in losing three of four home games to the Angels over the weekend. As for McHugh, he hasn’t lost since August 13 and his ERA is 1.53 over his last three starts. More importantly, he’s dominated Seattle in 2016, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four outings. The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: Boston’s 11-game winning streak has allowed the Red Sox to catch Texas for the AL’s best record. Both teams open the regular season’s final week of the season at 92-64. The Red Sox are off Monday, with Texas opening a three-game home IL series with the Brewers, before taking Thursday off. Texas owns the best home winning percentage in the AL (50-25) and it is 11-6 in interleague play. The 70-86 Brewers finished their home schedule with a 4-2 loss to Cincinnati on Sunday and now finish the season on the road. Overall, Milwaukee’s 29-46 road record is among the worst in MLB but the Brewers have won 10 of their last 15 on the road. The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (5-8, 4.52 ERA) starts for Milwaukee and Martin Perez (10-10, 4.14 ERA) will get the nod for Texas. Garza spent the second half of the 2013 season with Texas (4-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 13 starts) before signing a four-year, $50 million contract with Milwaukee. He has not pitched in Texas since he finished the 2013 season with the Rangers but is 5-3 with a 3.73 in 10 career starts against the Rangers (teams are 7-3). He owns a 4.54 ERA in 12 career starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington, pitching for or against Texas. Perez has never faced the Brewers but comes in 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last four starts (Rangers are a perfect 4-0). The pick: Texas would love to nail down home field advantage and a team that is 50-25 at home should not stumble here against a team like the Brewers. As noted, the Rangers have won Perez’s last four overall starts and he takes an 8-2 home record with a 2.65 ERA in 16 home starts during the 2016 season into tonight’s contest (Texas is 12-4). Texas is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Chicago Cubs easily clinched the NL Central (lead by a whopping 17 games) and have also secured MLB’s best overall record, as they conclude a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday night at Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, the 81-73 Cardinals need to win the rubber match of this series, as they are a half game behind New York and San Francisco in a three-team race for two NL wild card spots. The Cardinals pounded out 14 hits in Saturday’s 10-4 victory, winning for the fifth time in seven contests. After tonight’s game, the Cards conclude the season with seven home games, including four against the last-place 64-90 Cincinnati Reds. The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (15-8, 3.16 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards, opposed by the Cubs’ Jon Lester (18-4, 2.36 ERA). Martinez has produced a second straight surprising year for the Cards (was 14-7, 3.01 in 2015) and enters having won five of his last six decisions. However, the lone loss during that stretch was against the Cubs on 9/14. Martinez is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 18 games (eight starts / Cards are 5-3) all-time against Chicago, including a 1-2 mark (5.25 ERA) in four starts this year (Cards are 1-3). Lester’s 18 wins are tied with teammate Jake Arrieta and the Nats’ Max Scherzer for the most in the NL and his 2.36 ERA ranks second among all MLB starters, behind only teammate Kyle Hendricks' 2.06. The pick: The good news for the Cards is that while the Cubs are a dominating 66-24 at home in 2016, the Cards have won six of nine at Wrigley this year. Also, Martinez has been great on the road in 2016, going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 14 starts away from St. Louis (Cards are 10-4). That said, Lester hasn’t lost since July 3 and he has posted quality starts in 11 of his 12 outings since the All-Star break. He’s 9-0 with a 1.46 ERA over his 12 post-break starts (Cubs are 11-1). If that’s not enough, he owns a nine-game winning streak at Wrigley this season, as well as a 1.86 home ERA in 14 starts in 2016 (Cubs are 12-2). Chicago is an 8* play.

complete analysis b

The set-up: Break up the Braves! Atlanta may still own the NL’s worst record at  but the team’s 3-2 win in Miami last night was its seventh in a row with only red-hot Boston (nine straight wins) owning a longer current winning run. The Braves are now an impressive 19-12 since August 21, after taking the first two of this four-game series in Miami with the Marlins. Miami hasn’t made the playoffs since 2003 and with the Marlins winning just 9 of their last 26 games, it’s all over but the crying here in 2016 (the Marlins are five games out of the final wild card spot with eight games left and would have to pass THREE teams to earn that final playoff berth!). The pitching matchup: Rookie Aaron Blair (1-6, 7.71 ERA) gets a turn for Atlanta, while the Marlins counter with veteran Wei-Yin Chen (5-4, 5.04 ERA). Blair was acquired by the Braves in December in the deal with Arizona Diamonbacks and made his major league debut on April 24. However, after making 11 starts and going 0-5 with a 7.99 ERA, he was sent back down to Triple-A. Blair didn't pitch well there, either, owning a 5.98 ERA but the Braves gave him another chance. Blair finally earned his first major league victory, allowing just two runs in six innings on September 19. The Marlins signed Chen to a five-year, $80 million contract, expecting him to be the team’s No. 2 starter, behind Jose Fernandez. However, Chen missed two months due to an elbow injury and owns just five wins with nine days left in the regular season. The pick: Atlanta is hot and the Marlins’ playoff hopes are all but over but...it’s impossible to back Blair with his 7.71 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and .303 opponents BA over 13 starts (Braves are 3-10). Meanwhile, I realize Chen hasn’t delivered for Miami in 2016 but his numbers were really good the past two years with the Baltimore Orioles, going 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 2014 and 11-8 with a 3.34 ERA in 2015. No pressure here and I expect Chen to come through. Miami is an 8* play.

y 10:00 am et (8*)

The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles welcomed Arizona to town for a three-game weekend series, having just gotten swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox, as well as having lost six of the first eight of what will be an 11-game homestand. The Orioles fell behind 2-0 but tied the game with solo HRs by Pedro Alvarez and Matt Wieters in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively. Baltimore then won the game when Mark Trumbo hit his 44th homer of the season leading off the 12th. The Orioles lead all of MLB with 242 HRs and the team’s ability to hit HRs bailed them out again last night. Arizona fell to 64-89 and is just hoping to stay out of the NL ‘basement,’ fighting to stay ahead of the Padres, Reds and Braves for the NL’s worst overall record. The pitching matchup: Robbie Ray (8-13, 4.66 ERA) gets the ball for Arizona and Wade Miley (8-13, 5.65 ERA) for the Orioles. Both have struggled all season with Arizona going 11-19 in Ray’s starts, although Miley is better at a combined 13-15 in his starts with Arizona and Baltimore. Ray will face the Orioles for the first time. In his last four road starts and he’s pitched better lately on the road, with a 3.33 ERA, 31 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings, and has held opponents to a .163 batting average. In seven career road interleague starts, he is 2-3 with a 3.64 ERA. Miley will make his first career start against the team that drafted him. He was the taken by the Diamondbacks with the 43rd overall pick in the 2008 draft and won 16 games for Arizona in 2012, his first full season. However, since joining the Orioles in a trade with Seattle back on July 31, Miley is 1-5 with a 7.60 ERA in nine starts (Baltimore is 3-6). The pick: Neither starter inspires confidence but I’ll back Baltimore, whose comeback win Friday had to give the team a jolt of adrenalin. The victory allowed Baltimore to remain a half-game behind Detroit in the race for the second wild card spot in the American League, while the loss was just “another day at the office” for the “playing out the string”D’backs. Baltinore is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Astros have taken advantage of a favorable schedule to get back in the thick of the AL wild card race but last night wasted a strong outing by Mike Fiers (6 1/3 innings, allowing four hits and two runs with 9 Ks) in a 2-0 loss. The 81-72 Astros are now 1 1/2 games out of the AL’s second wild card spot with only nine games remaining. As for the 67-86 Angels, they rode a first-inning HR from Albert Pujols to a 2-0 victory and just their second win over the Astros in 13 meetings this season. The pitching matchup: Alex Meyer (1-3, 5.63 ERA) with take the mound for the Angels and Doug Fister (12-12, 4.45 ERA) does so for the Astros. Meyer is a rookie making his sixth appearance and fifth start of the season. He was acquired from Minnesota on August 1 along with right-hander Ricky Nolasco, who won the series opener with seven shutout innings last night. Meyer earned his first career win on Sunday against the Blue Jays after tossing five scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory but his teams are 1-3 in his previous four starts in 2016. Fister has suffered through a miserable September, going 0-3 with a 12.42 ERA over four starts (Houston is 0-4). The pick: The good news for Houston is two-fold. Fister owns a 2.72 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels (including a 2.08 ERA in two outings this season) and the Astros are 11-2 vs the Angels in 2016. Houston is an 8* play.

The set-up: The 62-91 Atlanta Braves own the worst record in the National League and are better than only the Minnesota Twins among all 30 MLB teams but the Braves continue a four-game weekend series in Miami on a six-game winning streak, giving them an 18-12 mark since August 21. Atlanta beat Miami 6-3 on Thursday and is now 10-6 against the Marlins this year. Miami hasn’t made the playoffs since 2003 and with the Marlins winning just 9 of their last 25 games, are on the verge of falling out of the NL wild-card race in 2016 (that may be a gross understatement). The pitching matchup: Matt Wisler (7-12, 4.93 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta and Andrew Cashner (5-11, 5.27 ERA) takes the mound for Miami. The Braves are just 8-16 in Wisler’s 24 starts in 2016 and this marks just his third start since the beginning of September, due to a side injury. Andrew Cashner of Miami is nearing the end of a forgettable season. I noted his overall record above but since the Marlins acquired him from the Padres on July 28, he’s 1-4 with a 6.18 ERA in 10 games, including nine starts (Miami is 3-6). The pick: Atlanta’s playing better baseball but Wisler is 0-2 against Miami in three starts this season with a 7.15 ERA and 20 hits allowed in 11 1/3 innings. Cashner’s been a real flop for Miami and he will be free agent after this season. He’s not expected to return and most feel it will be a mutual decision. However, the Marlins have won two of his last three starts and in his last two home starts, he’s allowed just one ER over 11.1 innings (0.79 ERA) with 13 Ks. Miami is likely not headed for postseason baseball but I will make them a 10* play in this contest.

The set-up:  The Baltimore Orioles are reeling after being swept at home by the Red Sox in a four-game home series, Monday through Thursday. Baltimore dropped seven games back of Boston in the AL East and with nine games left, has been all but officially elimated from the division race. Baltimore’s bigger concern now is, earning a wild card berth. The 82-71 Orioles are currently a half-game back of the Tigers for the AL’s second wild card spot plus lead the Astros by just one game, the Mariners by 1 1/2-games and the Yankees by 2 1/2-games. Arizona hasn’t had postseason thoughts since the team lost 12 of 14 games right before the All Star break and at 64-88, are just trying to stay ahead of the Padres, Reds and Braves for the NL’s worst overall record. The pitching matchup: Shelby Miller (2-12, 6.90 ERA) gets the ball for Arizona and Yovani Gallardo (5-8, 5.77 ERA) for Baltimore. The D’backs had hoped a change of scenery would benefit Miller, who despite a 3.02 ERA for the Braves in 2015, was just 6-17 (Braves went 11-22 in his starts or minus-$1062). However, he’s been healthy enough to make just 18 starts for Arizona in 2016 and his ERA has ballooned to 6.90, along with a 1.74 WHIP and a .322 BAA. He’s earned his 2-12 W-L record this year, as Arizona has gone 5-13 in his starts (minus-$731). Gallardo was expected to be a key addition to the Baltimore rotation in 2016 but he hasn't been fully healthy either plus when on the mound, he’s been a flop, as well. He takes the mound here, having won just once in his last 14 starts (Baltimore is 5-9). The pick: Miller is 0-6 in his last seven starts (D’backs are 1-6) and faces the Orioles for the first time in his career. The fact that the Diamondbacks are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the fewest interleague wins with five, hardly inspires confidence. Baltimore wraps an 11-game homestand with this series and it should be noted that Baltimore opened the homestand with a 45-25 record at Camden Yards, before dropped six of the first eight games! As for Gallardo, he’s 8-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 career starts against Arizona (teams are 10-4). Baltimore is an 8* play.

The set-up: The 81-71 Astros won 6-5 yesterday afternoon in Oakland, capping a six-game road trip through Seattle and Oakland at 5-1. All of a sudden, Houston finds itself tied with Detroit, just one game back of the AL’s final wild card spot (Astros are only two games back of Toronto, which holds the No. 1 wild card spot). Houston’s six wins in its last seven game puts the Astros a season-best 10 games over .500. The Astros now return to Houston for a seven-game homestand against the Angels (four games) and Mariners (three). Houston then ends the season with three games in Anaheim vs. the Angels. The Angels beat Texas 5-4 last night but that win was just the team's fourth victory over its last 15 games. LA limps into Houston just 66-86 on the season, with the real possibility of finishing with the team’s worst record since going 70-92 back in 1999. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (6-14, 4.78 ERA) takes to the mound for the Angels, opposed by Mike Fiers (11-7, 4.46 ERA) of the Astros. Nolasco pitched six scoreless innings to defeat Toronto in his last start but it was only his second victory in nine starts for the Angels (he’s 2-6 and LA is 2-7 in that span since being acquired from the Twins). Fiers comes in having  won three of his last four decisions, including a 2-1 victory over Seattle on Saturday in which he allowed three hits over six scoreless innings. The pick: Houston has taken advantage of a favorable closing schedule to get right back in the thick of the wild card race. Now, the team ends with 10 games against the Angels (seven) and Mariners (three), teams they own a 21-7 record against in 2016, so far. Clearly, it’s advantage Houston. Checking in on the pitching matchup and Houston has Fiers on the mound and he’s 17-11 (plus-$479) in all starts, including 11-4 at home. Meanwhile, Nolasco’s teams (Angels and Twins) have gone a combined 11-19 (minus-$601) in his 2016 starts, including 5-9 (4.93 ERA) on the road. Houston is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Boston Red Sox have seemingly taken control of the AL East race, as last night’s 5-1 win in Baltimore over the Orioles was the team’s seventh in a row. Boston now holds a five-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays and a six-game advantage over Baltimore, as the Red Sox look to complete a four-game sweep of their series with the Orioles. This series has ‘killed’ any chance the Orioles had at winning the AL East crown and now the Orioles are just desperately trying to hold on to the AL’s final wild card spot. However, with just 10 games remaining in the season, Baltimore is just one game up on the Tigers and Astros, with two other teams lurking, no more than 2 1/2 games back.  The pitching matchup: David Price (16-8, 3.91 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.72 ERA) for Baltimore, each looking for a 17th win. Price had a very shaky first half of the season for the Red Sox but Boston has won his last eight starting assignments (Price is 7-0). He had his seven-start winning streak end against the New York Yankees on Saturday, when he was reached for five runs on nine hits in six innings, but Boston went on to win 6-5. However, note that Price had allowed two or less runs in each of his previous six starts. Price faced Baltimore twice in that span, winning both (1.93 ERA), while owning a 13-0 KW ratio in 14 total innings. Tillman has been Baltimore’s ace and stopper all season long, except for his short stint on the disabled list. His 16 victories match a career high from 2013 and the Orioles need him to come through once more. The pick: Price and Boston come in on a roll but I will back Tillman in this one. He’s 10-3 with a 2.74 ERA over 19 career starts against Boston (team is 13-6) plus let’s look at the two pitchers’ moneyline mark here in 2016. The Orioles are 21-7 in Tillman’s starts, giving him MLB’s third-best moneyline mark at plus-$1418. In contrast, Price was a huge ‘money-burner’ for most of the 2016 season and despite Boston winning his last eight starts, the Red Sox  are still ‘under water’ with him on the mound, going 19-13 or minus-$241. Taking Baltimore and the 1 1/2 runs is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Texas Rangers have won back-to-back one-run games over the Angels on Monday and Tuesday. That comes as no surprise, as the team's record in one-run contests this year is now an amazing 36-10! The Rangers are now an AL-best 90-62 and have all but clinched the AL West with a 9 1/2-game lead and just 10 games remaining. As for the Angels, 11 losses in their last 14 games leaves them 65-86, with the team possibly headed toward its worst record since the Angels went 70-92 back in 1999. The pitching matchup: Jered Weaver (11-12, 5.17 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels and Derek Holland (7-8, 4.93 ERA) takes the mound for the Rangers, who go for the three-game sweep of the series. The veteran Weaver makes his 30th start of the season (Angels are 14-15 in all of his 2016 starts), including his 14th on the road (he owns a 5.68 ERA and 1.55 WHIP). However, he has enjoyed his most success against Texas, going 17-8 with a 3.38 ERA in 39 starts (Angels are 24-15). Those are Weaver's most wins against any opponent. This was Cole Hamels' normal turn in the rotation but he has been pushed back to Friday's series opener at Oakland, in an effort to get him on track to start the opener of the ALDS on October 6. Derek Holland goes instead and he’s hardly pitched well since returning from a two-month absence due to a shoulder injury. Holland is 2-3 with a 4.23 ERA in five starts since August 23, including get lit up for nine ERs on 17 hits over just 9 2/3 innings of his last two. The pick:. Holland is 10-7 with a 5.17 ERA in 26 career appearances (23 starts / teams are 13-10) against the Angels but Texas just keeps rolling along, while the Angels are in a free-fall and start a veteran whose best days are long gone. Texas is a 6* play.

The set-up: J.A. Happ got to sit in the dugout and watch the Blue Jays explode for an eight-run fourth inning. He stuck around for five innings (allowed two runs on six hits) and the Jays’ 10-2 victory allowed him to become MLB’s second 20-game winner. Coupled with Baltimore’s 5-2 loss to Boston, the Blue Jays moved a game ahead of the Orioles for the No.1 wild card spot, plus gave them a 2 1/2-game cushion over the Tigers. The Mariners lost for the fourth time in five games and they now trail the Blue Jays by four games and sit three games back of the Orioles for the AL’s final playoff spot. The pitching matchup: Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 3.17 ERA) takes the mound for the first time since September 11, as the Mariners counter with Felix Hernandez (11-6, 3.79 ERA). Sanchez was affected by a blister in his last outing and and gave up six ERs on five hits and four walks over just 3 2/3 innings of a no-decision against Boston (Red Sox won 11-8). Felix Hernandez has been Seattle’s ace for years but he hasn’t pitched like a ‘king’ in 2016. He lost to Houston in his last outing, giving up six runs (five earned) on eight hits, including two HRs, in just 4 1/3 innings. The pick: Sanchez has lost just once in his last 10 starts but note that the Blue Jays are only 5-5 in those games. He enters this contest off back-to-back poor outings, allowing nine ERs on 10 hits and six walks over just 10 2/3 innings (7.58 ERA). Hernandez is a modest 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 15 career starts against Toronto (Mariners are 8-7) and the bottom line line is that he’s never pitched in a postseason game. That means most of his September starts over his 11-year career have come with the Mariners out of postseason contention. Seattle’s postseason hopes are becoming slimmer by the day but the bet here is that Toronto’s Sanchez is vulnerable and the Jays just have not stepped up in September, going 7-11. Seattle is a 10* play.

The set-up: Houston has taken the first two of this three-game series in Oakland, closing to within two games of the AL’s final wild card spot (Tigers are also a half-game ahead of the Astros). Last night’s 2-1, 10-inning loss was the fifth in a row at home for 66-85 Oakland, which played the game under protest after manager Bob Melvin disagreed with the result of a replay review (good luck with that). The pitching matchup: Collin McHugh (11-10, 4.66 ERA) will get the start for Houston, opposed by Oakland’s Daniel Mengden (2-7, 5.68 ERA). McHugh will come into this contest having not lost since August 13. He extended his unbeaten streak to six starts Friday with a 2-0 victory at Seattle in which he allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings. McHugh is 4-0 with a 4.45 ERA over his current six-start unbeaten streak, with the Astros winning all six games. Oakland rookie Daniel Mengden is coming off arguably his best outing of the year. He blanked the Kansas City Royals on a season-low three hits over seven innings in Thursday in a 14-5 victory. However, Mengden hasn’t had many good outings in his previous 12 starts, as evidenced by his 5.65 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (A’s are 3-9 in his 12 starts). The pick: No reason to believe Mengden’s “lucky” 13th start will go much better, considering that McHugh 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts against the A's this year (Astros are 3-0), giving him a career 5-1 record (3.00 ERA) against the A’s in eight starts (Astros are 7-1). Houston is an 8* play.

The set-up: St. Louis has won three in a row after last night’s 5-3 win and are now tied with the Giants (both are 79-71) for the National League's second wild card spot (just one game back of the Mets, who hold down the No. 1 spot). Colorado was coming off a three-game home sweep of Padres over the weekend and have these two games remaining with the Cards before heading out on a seven-game road trip. The Rockies are going nowhere at 72-78 and the team's 40-36 record at Coors Field is hardly anything to be impressed with. The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (11-9, 4.51 ERA) gets the ball for the Cards and Jorge De La Rosa (8-8, 5.22 ERA) will make his final start of the season for the Rockies. De La Rosa is in the second season of his two-year, $25 million contract and can be a free agent after the season. Most expect that he will leave Colorado next year.  His start Tuesday will be De La Rosa's 200th with the Rockies. He is being dropped from the rotation after this outing, allowing German Marquez, a 21-year-old prospect, to make three starts. Wainwright’s had an up-and-down season but is 8-1 with a 1.31 ERA in 13 games, including nine starts (Cards are 7-2), against the Rockies in his career. The pick: De La Rosa is 7-3 with a 4.18 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 7-5) and that includes 4-0 with a 4.01 ERA in four starts against them at Coors Field. However, Wainwright is 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four games (three starts), at Coors Field. The Cards are fighting to be able to play beyond October 2 and I won’t get sentimental over De La Rosa’s last start as a Rockie. St. Louis is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Marlins beat the Nats 4-3 last night, keeping their slim wild card chances alive. The New York Mets hold down the No. 1 wild card spot, one game ahead of the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals, who are tied at 79-71. Monday’s win gives Miami a 75-75 record, four games back of the Giants and Cards. Washington has all but secured the NL East crown and can’t reasonably be expected to catch the Cubs for the NL’s best overall record (Nats trail the Cubs by seven games with 12 games remaining). The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA) starts for Washington and Jose Fernandez (15-8, 2.99 ERA) will take the mound for Miami. Tanner Roark is on the cusp of a career year, as he looks to win his 16th game (he won 15 games in 2014). Fernandez is also looking for his 16th win and as most are aware, has been a dominating home pitcher. He’s 11-2 with a 1.77 ERA in 15 home starts this season (team is 11-4) but that tells just part of the story. He’s 28-2 with a 1.53 ERA at Marlins Park since breaking into the majors over 41 career starts (Marlins are 34-7) The pick: The Nationals have lost three games in a row but have little reason to worry, as they are eight games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. Yes, Roark has had a terrific season but he’s really struggled vs. Miami, going 3-6 with a 4.68 ERA in 10 career starts (team is 4-6). As for Fernandez, not only does he own that spectacular home record (see above), he’s 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Nats (Marlins are 7-2). Miami is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Phillies will end their season with a 10-game stretch against NL East division foes (note: the 67-83 Phillies aren’t exactly in a pennant race) but up first is the team's final two IL games, when the Phils host the White Sox Tuesday and Wednesday. The Chicago White Sox  know all about “playing out the string,” as after a strong start (23-10), the team comes to Philadelphia at 72-78, 10 games out of a wild card berth with 12 games remaining on its schedule. The White Sox opened their current nine-game road trip by losing three of four at Kansas City (Fri-Mon). Philadelphia concludes its nine-game homestand (currently 4-3) with these two games vs. Chicago. The pitching matchup: James Shields (5-17, 5.84 ERA)  takes the mound for Chicago and Jake Thompson (2-5, 5.64 ERA) starts for Philadelphia. Shields is a veteran making his 350th career appearance (349th start), while rookie Thompson makes his ninth career start. Shields had posted double-digit wins in every season from 2007-15 but in 2016 he got off to a terrible start with San Diego and then after being traded to Chicago, has continued his ‘nightmare’ of a season. He's 3-10 with a 6.94 ERA for Chicago and his overall moneyline mark (8-22, minus-$1308) ranks second-worst among all MLB starters. Thompson snapped a five-start winless streak by holding Pittsburgh to two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings on Wednesday but the Phillies are 2-6 (minus-$366) in all of his starts. The pick: Shields comes in is winless in his last nine outings (team is 2-7), with his last victory coming way back in July 26. Meanwhile, Thompson has allowed two or less ERs in each of his last four starts. The Phillies are a 10* play.

The set-up: Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton, who suffered a severe groin injury on August 13, returned as a pinch hitter on September 6. This Friday at Philadelphia, he played the field for the first time since his injury. Stanton is expected to be back as a starter on Monday as the Marlins host the Nationals but the team is being careful not to overwork him. After all, his return can’t do much for 74-75 Miami’s slim playoff chances (Marlins are five games back of the final wild card spot with just 13 games left). The 88-61 Nationals will soon clinch the NL East but chances are very remote that they could catch the Cubs (Chicago owns a six-game lead on Washington) for the NL’s best overall record. The pitching matchup: Rookie A.J. Cole (1-2, 4.71 ERA) goes for Washington, while Wei-Yin Chen (5-4, 4.99 ERA) returns from the disabled list to start Monday's game, making his first appearance since July 20 when he sprained his left elbow. Cole will be looking for his second major-league win and after allowing six HRs in his first four starts this season, he kept the ball in the park against New York last Tuesday (he allowed three runs on nine hits and a pair of walks in five innings without factoring in the decision against the Mets). Chen missed almost two months with an elbow strain but went through simulated games as part of a rehab program and is said to be ready to return on Monday. The Marlins are 11-8 (plus-$186) in his starts in 2016. The pick: The Nationals opened their final road trip of the season at Atlanta over the weekend and took the opener before falling on Saturday and Sunday. They will head to Pittsburgh for three games to finish out the trip after dealing with the Marlins. The Nats are a solid 42-33 on the road this season, while Miami is a disappointing 36-35 here at Marlins Park (just 25-31 when Fernandez does not start!). Washington needs any combination of wins and New York losses equaling six to clinch the NL East and cuts its “magic number” to at least five with a win here (note: Chen is 1-4 with a 4.80 ERA in his career vs. Washington). The Nats are a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles open a critical four-game series Monday at Camden Yards. The Red Sox enter off their first sweep of the Yankees in a series of four or more games in 26 years (since June 4-7, 1990). The weekend’s results leave Boston three games up on Baltimore in the AL East, with Toronto one game back of the Orioles. Boston leads all MLB teams in runs scored (5.57 per), BA (.286) and OPS (.821) but Baltimore has hit more HRs (236) than any team in MLB plus ranks third in OPS (.769). Also, the Orioles own one of the best home records in MLB (47-27), as well as owning the second-best home moneyline mark (plus-$1557). The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (20-4, 3.12 ERA) tries for win No. 21 Monday night for Boston, opposed by Baltimore’s Dylan Bundy (9-5, 3.88 ERA). Porcello had his six-game winning streak snapped by the Orioles last Wednesday at Fenway, losing despite allowing just one run (a solo shot by Mark Trumbo) on four hits over eight innings. Wednesday's 1-0 loss dropped Porcello's career record against Baltimore to 3-8 in 14 starts (teams are 5-9) with a 5.19 ERA. Bundy opened the season with 22 appearances out of the bullpen but will be making his 13th consecutive start. He has won six of his last eight decisions, with four of the victories coming against division leaders. One was recorded at Boston on Tuesday, when Bundy evened his record at 1-1 in six career games (two starts) versus the Red Sox, despite giving up three runs on six hits and four walks in 5 1/3 innings (7.45 ERA in those two starts vs. Boston). The pick: Boston took out its frustrations of losing back-to-back contests against Baltimore by sweeping a four-game set with the New York Yankees over the weekend. After ‘burying’ the Yankees, Boston now gets a clear shot at Baltimore. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves but Game 1 of the series goes to Boston and Porcello. The Red Sox are a 10* play.

The set-up: The Yankees came to Boston on Thursday right in the thick of the AL wild card chase and also just four games out of first place in the AL East, behind the Red Sox. However, they blew a 5-0 lead on Thursday and fell 7-5 to Boston’s ninth-inning rally. The Red Sox have gone on to win Friday and Saturday (another comeback win), so the Yanks are now effectively out of the division race (Boston leads by seven games with 14 games remaining) and their wild card hopes have also taken a huge hit. The Jays and Orioles are both 81-67, as they fight over homefield advantage in the one-game wild card playoff. The Astros, Mariners and Tigers are all three games back of Toronto and Baltimore, with the Yankees now four games out. That mountain now seems too high to climb. The pitching matchup: C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.10 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Drew Pomeranz (10-12, 3.25 ERA) goes for Boston. Sabathia has not fared well against the Red Sox ion his career, going 12-15 (4.81) over 35 starts (teams are 15-20) and his career Fenway ERA is 5.15! Pomeranz was acquired by the Red Sox from the Padres in exchange for pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza in what has become a controversial deal, as Padres general manager A.J. Prella was suspended for 30 days for withholding medical information. Pomeranz is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 11 starts with the Red Sox (Boston is 4-7). The pick: It’s hard to be too confident regarding Pomeranz but how about that Boston bullpen? It owns a 1.06 ERA in September and the Red Sox. Combine that with a lineup that ranks first in runs scored (5.57 per), team BA (.286) and OPS (.821) and one has a winning formula. Boston gets the sweep and is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Colorado Rockies visited Chase Field to open the week and got swept by the Diamonbacks in a three-game series, as the team's pitching staff allowed 34 runs. However, a return to Coors Field has allowed the Rockies to win 8-7 (Fri) and 8-0 (Sat) and they now look to sweep the Padres on Sunday afternoon. The Padres lost Friday night when the Rockies scored three runs in the bottom of the 9th to win by a run and then got overpowered last night by Colorado's Jon Gray, who set a franchise record with 16 strikeouts. It’s also the most-ever by any pitcher in a game played at Coors Field. The pitching matchup: Jarred Cosart (0-3, 5.16 ERA) gets the ball for the Padres and Chad Bettis (12-7, 4.78 ERA)( will go for the Rockies. Cosart missed his last start after suffering a strained right hamstring and groin, which forced him to leave a September 7 outing, but will return to the mound Sunday for the Padres. "We're going to stick with what we initially planned and hoped would happen," manager Andy Green said. "He felt good coming through his throwing sessions. His leg's fine, so we feel good about starting him and we're going to proceed with the rotation as we've layed out after that." Cosart was acquired from Miami on July 29 and and this marks his 12th start overall and eighth for the Padres (teams are a combined 3-8 in his 2016 starts). Bettis will be making his second straight start against the Padres (he gave up four hits and two runs in seven innings but wasn't involved in the decision as the Rockies won 3-2 in 10 innings last Sunday) and comes in is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA (23 innings, four ERs), two walks and 18 strikeout in his last three (Rockies are 3-0). The pick: Cosart has never pitched against the Rockies, while Bettis owns a 2-1 record and 2.70 ERA in nine career games (six starts / team is 3-3) against the Padres. However, what seems more relevant is that while Coasrt has shown nothing all season, Bettis has won six of his last seven decisions and has given up three ERs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts (team is 10-2!). Make the Rockies an 8* play.

The set-up: The Tigers came to Cleveland Friday night to open an important three-game series with the Indians. Cleveland owned a six-game lead over Detroit in the AL Central but the Tigers were right in the middle of a six-team race for the two AL wild card spots. Game 1 of the series was decisively won by the Indians, as Corey Kluber won his 17th games as Cleveland won 11-4. Cleveland now owns a seven-game lead in the division, while the Tigers find themselves tied with Seattle, three games back of the two wild card leaders (Jays and Orioles are tied at 81-66). The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.33 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit and Carlos Carrasco (11-8, 3.32 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland. Verlander got off to a slow start in 2015 but all in all, has had a nice bounce-back season. That said, Verlander has lost all three starts this season against the Indians, sporting an ‘ugly’ 9.18 ERA. He’s 18-21 with a 4.70 ERA in 46 career appearances against Cleveland (team is 21-25) and those 21 losses are by far the most Verlander has against any other major league opponent. Carrasco lasted only 3 2/3 innings at the Chicago White Sox on Monday, giving up five runs (four earned) and eight hits. However, he is 3-0 in his last four starts at Progressive Field and the Indians are 8-4 in all of his home starts this season. The pick: Carraso has been a .500 pitcher lifetime against the Tigers but he is 2-0 with a sparking 0.51 ERA against them this season, permitting one run over 17 2/3 innings. The Indians are 48-25 against all opponents this year at home (averaging 5.81 RPG) and more importantly, Cleveland’s 11-4 win over Detroit gives the Indians a 12-1 record against the Tigers in 2016. Same old, same old for Saturday. Cleveland is a 10* play.

The set-up: The San Diego Padres visit Coors Field to open a three-game series with the Rockies, seeking a season-high fourth straight win. The 62-84 Padres own a three-game winning streak after “putting a hurt” on the Giants' playoff hopes with a sweep in San Francisco. The Rockies limp home after getting swept at Chase Field by the D’backs, losing all three games of that series by the combined scores of 34-19. Colorado pitchers allowed four or more runs in an inning five times and a total of 50 hits, including 10 HRs. Colorado starters allowed 25 hits and had a 10.22 ERA while working just 12 1/3 innings. Not to be outdone, Colorado relievers also allowed 25 hits and had an 11.57 ERA in 11 2/3 innings! The pitching matchup: Christian Friedrich (5-10, 4.67 ERA) starts for the Padres and Tyler Chatwood (11-9, 3.82 ERA) goes for the Rockies. Friedrich was Colorado's first-round draft pick in 2008 but the Rockies moved him to the bullpen in 2014 and released him after last season when he pitched entirely in relief. Now, he makes his second consecutive start against his former team. Friedrich gave up two hits and one unearned run in six innings at Coors Field back on June 12, getting a no decision in a 2-1 Padres loss. He then gave up two hits in seven scoreless innings with one walk and a career-high tying 10 strikeouts in the Padres' 6-3 victory Saturday at San Diego, winning for the first time in 12 starts since June 23. Chatwood has a 3.82 ERA in 24 starts but it’s just his second start since returning from the DL with a mid-back strain. The pick: Chatwood broke a three-game losing streak by limiting the Padres to one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 4-1 win last Friday. Chatwood is 4-0 lifetime time with a 3.18 ERA in eight games (six starts / team is 5-1) against San Diego, including 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA versus the Padres this season, allowing 14 hits and striking out 14 in 21 1/3 innings. Colorado is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Royals just got swept in a four-game home series by the Oakland Athletics, who are in last place in the AL West. They fell 14-5 Thursday and did not score a run until the ninth inning, finishing the series outscored by a tally of 43-12! It represents the most runs the team has ever allowed in a four-game series in Royals history. The Royals now continue an eight-game homestand with four games against the Chicago White Sox, having lost eight of their past nine Kauffman Stadium games. The now 74-72 defending World Series champs are all but done in the wild card race, a feeling the 71-75 White Sox have known for quite awhile now. The pitching matchup: Chris Sale (15-8, 3.03 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago, opposed by KC’s Ian Kennedy (11-9, 3.62 ERA). Sale opened the 2015 season 9-0 (1.58) but with just a few starts left to his year, he only has 15 wins. He’s just 6-8 over his last 19 starts, with Chicago going 7-12. That said, he’s posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts, lasting at least eight innings in each of them. He has 48 strikeouts in 41 innings during that stretch but the White Sox are just 1-4 in those games. Kennedy will reach the 30-start mark for the seventh straight season in tonight’s game and has won five consecutive decisions (over a six-start stretch), including his victory opposite Sale last time out. The 31-year-old worked six scoreless innings in that one and tied his season best by allowing one hit as he lowered his ERA to 3.14 since the All-Star break. The pick: Kansas City's swoon has put it in seventh place in the wild-card standings with 16 games to play and the White Sox have won six of their last nine. However, Sale just can’t seem to get a win these days while as noted, Kennedy comes in on a roll. Kansas City (plus 1 1/2 runs) is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Rangers own a healthy 8 1/2 game lead in the AL West but must be wary of the A’s this weekend in Arlington. The A’s may be just 64-82 on the season (a whopping 22 1/2 games back of the Rangers) but they come from Kansas City where they just swept a four-game series against the Royals, outscoring them by a combined 43-12! Also note that the A's have made life tough on the Rangers in 2016 as well, going 6-7 against Texas despite getting swept in their last series in Arlington. The pitching matchup: Kendall Graveman (10-10, 4.13 ERA) takes the mound for the A’s and Cole Hamels (14-5, 3.24 ERA) gets the nod for the Rangers. The fact that Graveman leads Oakland in wins kind of sums up the state of the team’s 2016 season. He had allowed three runs or less in four straight starts (1.24 ERA in that stretch) but that was not the case in his most recent start, as he allowed eight ERs on 12 hits in five-plus innings last Saturday in a 14-3 loss against the Seattle Mariners. Cole Hamels has issued 11 walks over 12 innings in his last three starts and has handed out a career-high 72 free passes this season. Hamels also owns an 11.25 ERA in his last three but note that Texas has won two of the three. The pick: Graveman has not faced Texas this season and is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in two career starts versus the Rangers. Hamels got a no-decision against the A's on May 17 in Oakland, allowing four runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings. In three career starts vs. the A's, he is 1-1 with a 2.18 ERA (team is 1-2). I expect Hamels to rebound from his recent funk and it’s impossible to ignore these two facts. The Rangers are 21-8 (plus-$1169 moneyline mark ranks 8th-best among starters) in his 2016 starts and going back to the end of last year’s regular season, the Rangers have won 31 of Hamels’ last 39 starts. Texas is MLB’s biggest money-maker, earning a profit of $3216 on the season, which is $1860 MORE than the second-best moneyline team. The Rangers have won 11 of their last 13 home games and their 47-22 mark at Globe Life Park is second-best in the majors (home moneyline mark of plus-$2257 is easily a MLB-best!). Texas is a 7* play. 

The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays lost 8-1 Wednesday afternoon and are now just 3-9 in September. The Jays have not only fallen out of first-place in the AL East but they are now one game back of the Orioles for the No. 1 wild card spot, while leading the Tigers by only one game for the final wild card spot. Plus, Seattle is just 1 1/2 games back of Toronto, the NY Yankees only two games back and the Astros sit 3 1/2 games back. Toronto is clearing reeling and any number of teams have a chance to ‘steal’ the team’s playoff spot. The Blue Jays travel cross-country to open a four-game series against the 63-82 LA Angels. The Angels open the series having lost six of their last seven games, after scoring just two runs while suffering a three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Seattle Mariners (Seattle owns MLB’s longest current win streak at eight in a row). The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (18-4, 3.33 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, up against the Angels’ Daniel Wright (0-2, 7.50 ERA). Happ has turned out to be Toronto’s “accidental ace” in 2016. He opened the year with a career record of 62-61, with his best-ever season coming back in 2009 with the Phillies, when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA. Happ won 11 consecutive decisions from June 11 to August 17 and only Boston’s Rick Porcello has more wins in 2016 than Happ’s 18. Daniel Wright was acquired off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds back on September 4 and makes his second start for the Angels. He’s made five appearances in 2016 (three starts) and along with his ‘ugly’ 7.50 ERA, his WHIP is 1.89 and opponents have batted .388 against him. The pick: Toronto is reeling and the fact that Happ is 0-5 with a 7.83 ERA in his career vs the Angels, has to be a concern. However, Happ is a different pitcher than in any of his previous seasons in 2016 plus it’s hard to make a case that Wright is a “ready for primetime” pitcher. Wright has three starts in 2106 and his team is 0-3. Make that 0-4, making Toronto is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Tigers had been held to four runs or less for seven straight games (going 2-5 in that stretch) but broke out with 13 hits in Wednesday's 9-6 victory over Minnesota. The victory pulls Detroit within a single game of the second AL wild card spot. The Tigers look to capture their four-game series this afternoon with the Minnesota Twins, ahead of heading to Cleveland this weekend for a three-game series in Cleveland to take on the 81-61 first-place Indians. The Twins own MLB’s worst record at 54-92, as well as its worst road record (25-46). The pitching matchup: Hector Santiago (11-8, 4.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins and Mike Pelfrey (4-9, 4.76 ERA) makes his first start since July 31 due to a bad back for the Tigers. Santiago was 7-1 over his final 12 starts with the Angels (LA was 10-2) but he’s just 1-4 with a 6.34 ERA in seven starts since joining the Twins at the trade deadline (Twins are 2-5). However, he is trending in the right direction, going 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last three appearances (Twins are 2-1). Pelfrey was signed by Detroit to a two-year deal worth $11 million as a free agent after Minnesota let him go last winter and was expected to be a solid part of Detroit’s starting rotation in 2016. Pelfrey last pitched July 31 at Houston but a back strain placed him on the disabled list. He was activated to pitch out of the bullpen September 5 but has not appeared since his last start. The pick: The Twins are having an awful season, with not only MLB’s worst overall record but the Twins now also own MLB’s worst moneyline mark at minus-$2793. Meanwhile, not only are the Tigers right back in the thick of the wild card race but they are also a solid “money-maker” for the betting public, owning MLB’s third-best moneyline mark of plus-$1341. The Tigers have won 12 of 15 matchups with the Twins in 2016 and have had at least 10 hits in nine of those games. Detroit is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks have beaten the Colorado Rockies 12-9 and 11-4 the last two nights and have now evened the season series between the two clubs at nine games apiece. Colorado owns a slight edge in runs scored (125-123) but for all intents and purposes, this series is about as dead-even as one can get. The 60-84 D’backs have dropped out of postseason consideration quite some time ago and with seven losses in their last 11 games, the 69-76 Rockies have fallen well off the pace in the NL wild-card race as well, as they are now eight games behind the New York Mets for the second wild-card spot. The pitching matchup: Jeff Hoffman (0-3, 5.60 ERA) starts for Colorado and Rubby De La Rosa (4-5, 4.17 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona. Hoffman will make his fifth major league start, still looking for his first win. He is coming off his shortest career outing, lasting just 2 2/3 innings last Thursday in a 14-1 loss at San Diego, giving up six hits and seven runs but all were unearned. De La Rosa is making his second start after missing more than three months with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He pitched just two innings in his first outing and gave up one run, one hit and two walks while striking out three against San Francisco. De La Rosa is 4-1 with a 3.43 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts / team is 4-2) against Colorado and this marks Hoffman’s first appearance vs. Arizona. The pick: Hoffman was acquired from Toronto in the package that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline but owns just one quality start in his first four here in 2016. His 5.60 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and .297 BAA hardly bodes well up against an Arizona lineup which pounded out 17 hits in Tuesday’s 11-4 win (had 12 runs on 16 hits in Monday’s 12-9 win) and now has 10 hits or more in 13 consecutive games against Colorado. Hoffman will have to wait at least one more start to get that first big league win. Arizona is an 8* play as it completes the sweep. 

The set-up: The Washington Nats and NY Mets play the rubber match of their three-game series this afternoon at Nationals Park. The Nationals own a comfortable nine-game lead over the Mets in the NL East but the Mets have gotten themselves right back in the thick of the NL’s wild card race. New York will go for its seventh straight series win on Wednesday. The 77-68 Mets are just a half-game ahead of the Cards for the second wild card hunt but also just a half-game back of the Giants for the No. 1 spot The pitching matchup: Robert Gsellman (2-1, 3.92 ERA) takes the mound for New York and Tanner Roark (14-8, 2.85 ERA) gets the ball for Washington. Rookie Gsellman will make his fourth career start (fifth appearance) but is coming off the shortest outing of his three major-league starts, although he escaped with a no-decision against Atlanta. He gave up four runs on seven hits over five innings with the Mets winning 6-4. He earned his first career win as a starter (won in relief in his major league debut on August 23) against the Nationals, going six innings and giving up one run on six hits in a 3-1 New York win on September 3. Washington’s Roark spent most of 2015 in the bullpen, after the team signed Max Scherzer to a free agent contract. However, he won 15 games as a rookie member of the Nationals starting rotation. Here in 2016, he’s back as a quality starter and goes for win No. 15 this afternoon. The pick: Roark takes the mound having allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Included in that stretch is that 3-1 loss to at New York on September 3 (against Gsellman) in which he allowed a modest two runs in five innings. He is 5-2 overall with a 2.76 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets (Nats are 5-3). The Nats own a strong 45-28 home record this season and in 15 home starts in 2016, Roark’s ERA is 2.62. He was out-pitched by Gsellman back on September 3 at Citi Field but wins the rematch today with a flourish. Washington is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Blue Jays beat the Rays 3-2 on Monday but Tampa Bay bounced back with a 6-2 win last night. Toronto is now 3-8 since the break but remained two games back of the Red Sox in the AL East, as Boston lost 6-3 to the Orioles. However, Baltimore’s win pulled them into a tie with Toronto for the top wild card spot (those two teams lead the Tigers and Yankees by two games and the Mariners by 2 1/2). The Rays and Jays play an early afternoon at Rogers Centre to decide this series and end the season series between the two clubs. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 4.09 ERA) will be making his third start in the majors since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and Marco Estrada (8-8, 3.68 ERA) starts for the Jays. Cobb allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hit in a no-decision start against the New York Yankees last Thursday at Yankee Stadium, which came after a September 2 start in Tampa vs. the Jays when he also didn’t factor in the decision while allowing four hits and two runs in five innings of an 8-3 Toronto win. Estrada has lost four of his last five starts, including two straight. His downward trend is becoming an issue, as his ERA is 7.71 in that five-start stretch, quite a drop-off from the 2.95 ERA he posted in his first 20 outings of 2016. The pick: Tuesday’s win by the Rays clinched the season series against the Jays (Tampa leads 10-8), for the eighth time in the past nine years. However, let’s also note that the Rays need to win here to clinch this current three-game series but Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 in its last seven road series and has lost nine consecutive sets in AL parks. The Rays have earned their 61-83 record and the team's road record of 26-43 gives them the worst moneyline mark (minus-$1507) of any of MLB’s 30 teams. As for the Blue Jays, they look like a tired, hurting team these days. That makes the Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Blue Jays got a much-needed 3-2 win on Monday, after losing seven of their first nine games to open September. Toronto’s current struggles leave them two games back of the Red Sox in the AL East but the Jays do own a one-game lead over the Orioles for the No. 1 wild card spot (Toronto is a mere two games clear of the AL playoff ‘cut line’). The Rays surprisingly still lead the season series over the Blue Jays 9-8 (with two games left between the teams) but are putting a finishing touch on an awful season which has them 60-83 overall, going minus-$2823 vs. the moneyline (only the Twins are worse). The pitching matchup: Drew Smyly (6-11, 5.05 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Marcus Stroman (9-7, 4.55 ERA) goes for Toronto. Despite an ‘ugly’ 6-11  record on the season, Smyly is unbeaten in his last nine starts (he’s 4-0 and the Rays are 6-3), even though he’s allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over 8 2/3 innings in the last two outings. Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts against Toronto in 2016. Stroman takes the mound winless in his last four starts but in two of those outings he gave up two ERs (last Wednesday when he permitted two runs) and one ER back on August 21 at Cleveland. Stroman is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA versus Tampa Bay this season and 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA all-time vs. the Rays. The pick: Stroman owns an unimpressive 4.93 ERA in 13 home starts in 2016 but he’s 4-1 with the Blue Jays going 8-5. I played Toronto on Monday (3-2 win) and will do so again here, with the Rays falling to 25-43 on the road in 2016 last night, giving them a MLB-worst minus-$1666 road moneyline mark. Toronto is a 6* play.

The set-up: The wild card round was instituted back in 2013 and each of the last three years, the Pirates have been a participant in that one-game, winner-take-all contest in the NL. The fly in the ointment, of course, has been Pittsburgh has lost each time. However, the team’s problem here in 2016, more and more, looks like Pittsburgh won’t even be playing in this season’s NL wild card game. The Pirates lost 6-2 last night at the 64-80 Phillies, giving them 12 losses in the last 14 games and a look at the standings on Tuesday morning reveal that the 69-73 Pirates are SIX games out of the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Ivan Nova (6-12, 4.13 ERA) will get the start for Pittsburgh and Alec Asher (1-0, 0.00 ERA) starts for Philadelphia. While Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes seem to be fading, the rest of the 2016 season for Phildalphia will be spent evaluating what the future may hold. Asher getting a start here is an indication of what Philly is doing down the stretch. Asher made his 2016 season debut at Washington last Thursday and dominated through six innings, scattering two hits without allowing a run to earn the win. He had his 2016 season halted by an 80-game PED suspension but was solid in the minors after being reinstated and has earned another chance in the Philadelphia rotation. Pittsburgh’s Nova has been fantastic since joining the Pirates at the trade deadline, going 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his seven starts (Pittsburgh is 6-1). The pick: Here’s the bottom line. The Pirates had a 67-61 record and were a half-game back of the final wild-card spot through August 28 but the team’s 2-12 stretch has all but eliminated them from contention. "If we can flip a switch and fix it, we certainly would," general manager Neal Huntington said recently, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "But every time we seem like we're falling in the wrong direction, we seem to right ourselves. Every time we right ourselves, we seem to take a misstep. We've been the streakiest team in baseball this year, and our goal is to spend some time figuring out how we become more consistent." The time is clearly now for Pittsburgh and Nova’s outstanding pitching gives them a clear edge in this game, especially against Asher, who went 0-6 with a 9.31 ERA in seven starts for the Phillies in 2015 (team was 1-6). Pittsburgh is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Dodgers beat the Yankees 8-2 last night in the Bronx, dropping them five games behind the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, as well two games behind the Baltimore Orioles, who hold the second AL wild card spot. The Yankees clawed back into the wild card hunt with a seven-game winning streak but they have now dropped two in row, scoring just two runs in each defeat. The NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers are 81-62 and four games up on the Giants after Monday’s win. The pitching matchup: Rookie Julio Urias (5-2, 3.69 ERA) gets the nod for the Dodgers, opposed by veteran C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.27 ERA) of the Yankees. Urias makes his 14th start of 2016 and after the Dodgers lost three of his first four, they had won his previous eight starts, before losing 4-2 in his last outing (Sep. 2), when he took a no-deciosn in a 4-2 loss to San Diego (5 1/3 innings, allowing two ERs). Urias has recovered from a bruised finger and gets the start in Tuesday's game. Urias is having his innings monitored carefully and has yet to record an out in the seventh inning in the majors. Sabathia is winless in his last three starts and was KO’d after just four innings against the Tampa Bay Rays last Thursday. He allowed three solo HRs in that one against the Rays and has yielded 13 HRs in his last nine outings. The pick: Sabathia is making his third interleague start of the season and has been ripped for 11 runs (10 earned) on 15 hits over 10 total innings in his two previous chances against NL teams (that’s a 9.00 ERA). Meanwhile, Urias has not lost since being recalled from the minors at the beginning of August and has allowed two or fewer ERs in each of his last five appearance (fours starts plus a 2 2/3-inning scoreless relief appearance). He owns a 1.44 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just eight walks in those five appearances. In stark contrast, C.C. takes the mound 3-8 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 15 starts since June 22. The Dodgers are a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Reds got outscored 27-9 during a five-game losing streak but then won three straight Friday through Sunday at Pittsburgh, putting a ‘hurt’ on Pittsburgh’s wild card hopes. Cincinnati, just 60-82 on the season, now returns home to open the week with a three-game series against the 64-79 Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have won seven of their last 10 contests after splitting a weekend series in St. Louis but like the Reds, have no plans for playing MLB after October 2 (final day of the regular season). The pitching matchup: Wily Peralta (6-9, 5.47 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee, opposed by Keyvius Sampson (0-1, 3.90 ERA) of Cincinnati. Anthony DeSclafani was originally scheduled to start the series opener for the Reds but manager Bryan Price says he won’t take the mound again until September 18. He added, “It gives (Sampson) a chance to get a little bit of a stretch and give a little bit of blow to Anthony, and he slots right back in for his next start. No red flag, but in the sense of being proactive, it makes more sense to do it right now and let him finish the season strong." Sampson will be making his second start in 2016 after recording 12 last season (2-6 with a 6.54 ERA / team was 4-8). Peralta was sent down to Triple A for nearly two months but has gone 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA in his six starts since returning but the team is just 2-4. The pick: Milwaukee has won seven of 10 and it’s noteworthy that the team's starting pitchers own a 2.83 ERA over the its last 20 games but Peralta owns a 5.54 road ERA (seven starts), allowing 50 hits in 37.1 innings with a 1.77 WHIP. The Brewers are just 25-43 on the road in 2016 and the Reds are full of confidence after winning three in a row at Pittsburgh over the weekend, scoring eight runs on both Saturday and Sunday. Cincy is an 8* play.  

The set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays are the only team in the American League East with a losing record, checking in at 60-82 (second-worst in the AL) plus owns MLB’s second-worst moneyline mark at minus-$2723. However, when the last-place Rays visit Toronto for a three-game series Monday night, they come to Rogers Centre with a 9-7 record this season against the Blue Jays. Toronto has gone just 2-7 in September by losing three consecutive series, on the road against the Rays and the Yankees plus at home over the weekend to the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Jake Odorizzi (9-6, 3.86 ERA) will take the mound for Tampa Bay and Francisco Liriano (7-12, 5.27 ERA) gets the nod for Toronto. Odorizzi lost for the first time since the All-Star break in his most recent outing, allowing seven runs on six hits and three walks over four innings against Baltimore. He had allowed just 14 total runs in his previous nine starts while completing at least six innings in eight of them. Odosizzi is 6-1 in his 10 post-break starts with the Rays going 7-3. The Blue Jays will start Liriano, who replaces R.A. Dickey in the rotation. Liriano’s last two outings have come out of the bullpen and he will be making his first start since August 26. He’s 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in six outings (four starts / team is 2-2) since he was acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 1. The pick: Odorizzi comes in off an awful start but has been an excellent starter for Tampa Bay since the break but the Rays are just 24-42 on the road in 2016. The Jays open the new week badly needing to get back on track after slumping to begin the month of September. A players-only meeting led to a 3-2 win over Boston on Saturday but despite plating eight runs on Sunday, Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 11 runs on 11 hits. How Toronto plays in this series, just may determine the team’s October schedule. The Blue Jays are an 8* play.

The set-up: The Pirates lost eight straight games from August 29 through September 6, then won two in a row. However, a three-game slide followed Friday through Sunday at home against the Reds, who entered Friday with a sad-sack 57-82 record. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes have taken a fairly significant hit over the last two and a half weeks. The Pirates are now 5 1/2 games behind St. Louis for the final wildcard spot in the NL playoff race, having lost 11 of their last 13. The Pirates open a four-game series at Philadelphia on Monday and almost have to take a minimum of three games of this series against the 63-80 Phillies. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (7-9, 3.55 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Jeremy Hellickson (10-9, 3.90 ERA) will go for Philadelphia. Cole’s been on the sidelines the last 2 1/2 weeks (during Pittsburgh’s slide) with elbow inflammation issues but returns here, making his first start since August 24. He’s had a disappointing and injury-plagued 2016 but note that in 20 starts, his ERA is a respectable 3.55 ERA. He’s made five career starts vs. the Phillies going 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA. The Phillies decided to hang onto the veteran Hellickson at the trade deadline and he’s been an “innings eater” for the young Phillies pitching staff. However, he’s struggled as of late, allowing 12 ERs over 16 innings (6.75 ERA) in his last three starts (he’s 0-2 and the team is 0-3). The pick: Pittsburgh was 63-61 when Cole last made a start but sits at 69-72 as he’s takes the mound tonight. Cole came through his bullpen session on Saturday with no issues but takes the mound having gone went 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA in the four starts prior to going down. However, Hellickson has pitched very poorly lately as well and Cole has pitched well vs. the Philies in his career (see above) including allowing just one run while striking out seven in six innings against Philadelphia back on July 22. Pittsburgh needs wins badly and the Phillies will play the perfect foil. The Pirates are 1 0* play. 

The set-up: Jon Lester won his 16th game of the season 2-0 over the Astros Friday night but the stage was set for a rubber match to this series on Sunday night with the Astros’ 2-1 win on Saturday afternoon. Houston’s win snapped a three-game skid and leaves them 75-67, 2 1/2 games back of the AL’s second wild card, a race which still includes SEVEN teams! The 90-51 Cubs own a huge 15-game lead over the Cards in the NL Central plus own a 6 1/2 game lead over the Nationals for the NL’s top record.

The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (16-6, 2.84 ERA) looks for win No. 17 in tonight’s game, up against Houston’s Mike Fiers (10-6, 4.29 ERA). Arrieta took a tough loss last time out against San Francisco, allowing three runs (two earned) over six innings in a 3-2 setback. However, last year’s Cy Young winner has just two quality starts over his last five outings and has issued 17 walks in 31 2/3 innings over that span.  Fiers hasn’t pitched all that well in his last two starts, allowing 15 hits over just 10 innings but has somehow allowed only five runs (just three have been earned).

The pick: Arrieta will be making his first career appearance against the Astros and excluding the Cubs, Houston is the only team Arrieta has yet to face in his career. As for Fiers, he’s 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five games (four starts) all-time against the Cubs. However, expecting a third straight 2-0 or 2-1 game is a stretch. Note that prior to Arrieta’s last outing vs. the Giants, his previous four starts had averaged 13.25 RPG. As for Fiers? His last three starts have seen an average of 14.33 runs scored. The Over is a 10*!

The set-up: San Francisco failed to hold two late-inning leads against Arizona on Friday night but the third time was the charm, as the Giants edged the D’backs 7-6 (12 innings) at Chase Field in the opener of a three-game series. The 75-65 Giants gained a game on the Dodgers, who lost 4-1 in Miami, closing within four games in the AL West, while maintaining the slimmest of margins over the 75-66 Cards and 74-66 Mets in that three-way wild card race for two spots. Friday’s victory gives the Giants two chances (Saturday & Sunday) to win their 13th series in the last 14 played at Chase Field. Arizona checks in at 58-82 on the season and hasn’t played well at home vs. many (any?) opponents in 2016, owning one of MLB’s worst home records at 25-44. Arizona’s minus-$2624 moneyline mark at home is a MLB-worst! The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-5, 2.92 ERA) goes for San Francisco and Archie Bradley (6-8, 4.85 ERA) for Arizona. Cueto was 13-1 at the All Star break but in 10 starts since has gone 1-4 with the Giants going 3-7. However, he still owns a 2.92 ERA on the season and he’s 8-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 12 career starts against Arizona (teams are 9-3). Bradley will make his 22nd start of 2016 for Arizona and while he owns a 3.96 ERA in 11 road starts, it’s 5.82 in his 10 starts here at Chase Field. The pick: Bradley’s home woes mirror that of Arizona's team as whole (remember, 25-44, minus$2624!) and considering that San Francisco is 7-1 at Chase Field this season, Cueto over Bradley makes the Giants an 8* play.

The set-up: The Red Sox opened a two-game lead over the Blue Jays Friday with a 13-3 romp at Rogers Centre, as Rick Porcello earned his 20th win, becoming the first (and maybe only pitcher?) to reach that plateau in 2016. The Red Sox can make sure they will return home with the AL East lead by winning at least one more game at Rogers Centre Saturday or Sunday. When Boston returns to Fenway on Monday, the Red Sox will host the Orioles for a three-game series. Baltimore lost 4-3 on Friday and is now three games behind the Red Sox. Toronto opened the month of September  with a 31-23 mark against AL East foes in 2016, after ending August by winning five of six to maintain a two-game edge over Boston. However, the Blue Jays began September 1-5 against Tampa Bay and the NY Yankees to give up the division lead. The pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (2-6, 4.83 ERA) will start for Boston on Saturday afternoon, opposed by Toronto’s J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.34 ERA). Rodriguez has allowed three or less ERs in eight of nine starts since the All Star break but despite a 2.73 ERA in that span, has earned just one win against three losses (team is just 3-6). Toronto’s Happ, much like Boston’s Porcello, has been one of 2016’s surprising breakout pitching stars. Happ’s best previous season was when he went 12-4 back in 2009 for the Phillies. However, one wonders if Toronto is troubled by the fact that Happ is just 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA over his last four trips to the mound (Jays are 2-2), after going 16-3 with a 2.96 mark in his first 23 starts of 2016 (Jays were 18-5). The pick: Boston has averaged 9.6 runs in its eight victories over the last 12 games but just 2.0 runs in its four losses. I look for Happ, like Porcello last night, to rise to the challenge and for Boston’s Rodriguez to fall victim to a lack of support once again (see above for details). Toronto is an 8* play.

The set-up: The 73-66 Cardinals own the longest active run of playoff appearances (five) but Thursday’s 12-5 home loss against the going nowhere Brewers, hardly helps the cause. St. Louis is just ONE game behind San Francisco for the National League's first wild card spot but now also finds themselves a half-game back of the New York Mets for wild card spot No. 2. The Brewers may stand just 63-77 on the season but they racked up 17 hits (including three HRs) in Thursday’s 12-5 victory in the opener of this four-game series (note: Milwaukee has now won seven of its last eight games).  The pitching matchup: Jimmy Nelson (7-13, 4.36 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Carlos Martinez (13-7, 3.07 ERA) for St. Louis. Jimmy Nelson’s season has fallen apart since the start of June, as he enters this contest 2-10 (5.61 ERA) over his last 17 starts (Milwaukee is just 4-13). Carlos Martinez won a surprising 14 games in 2015 and he now has a chance to earn win No. 14 in 2016, tonight. Martinez is coming off a 5-2 win Sunday at Cincinnati in which he struggled with his control, giving up five walks in six-plus innings, but didn't give up a run until the seventh because he induced three double plays. The double play has become a staple of Martinez's 26 starts in 2016, as he leads the NL with 30 double play balls. The pick: Nelson’s struggles vs. St. Louis as obvious, as he’s 0-6 with a 7.57 ERA in eight career meetings (seven starts / teams are 2-5). Meanwhile, Martinez is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA in 18 career games (seven starts / Cards are 5-2) against Milwaukee. The Cards are a 5* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Indians just completed an 8-2 homestand and now begin a nine-game road trip with a three-game weekend series at Minnesota against the Twins. The 81-58 Indians lead the AL Central by six games and are battling the 83-58 Texas Rangers for the overall No. 1 seed in the AL. As for the Twins, they are an AL-worst 52-88 and the team’s minus-$2674 moneyline is a MLB-worst. This hardly seems like a fair fight. The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (11-6, 3.78 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland, opposed by Minnesota’s vs. Tyler Duffey (8-10, 6.24 ERA). Salazar is winless in six starts (0-3 / team is 3-3) but has pitched well in his last two, allowing a modest three ERs over his last two (2.45 ERA), while striking out 21 batters in just 11 innings. Duffey has been recalled from Triple-A to make his first major league start since August. 24, when he allowed six runs on seven hits in three innings of a 9-4 loss to Detroit. Duffey’s 6.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .300 BAA in 2016 pretty much sums up the ‘state of his game.’ The pick: The bright spot for Minnesota in this contest is that Duffey is unbeaten in five career starts vs. the Indians, going 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA (Twins are 5-0). However, the Twins have won just three times in their last 20 games, while the Indians have a chance to secure the home field edge in all postseason series by catching Texas for the AL’s top record. Cleveland is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Dodgers have survived a rash of injuries and coupled with the Giants’ second-half collapse, are currently 79-60, which gives them a five-game lead in the NL West. Things are not going as well for the Marlins, who after losing 10 of their last 12 games, are two games under .500 (69-71), leaving them five games back of the second NL wild card spot. LA visits Miami tonight for a three-game weekend series and Game 1 features a marquee matchup of All Star pitchers. The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (11-2, 1.79 ERA) takes the mound for the Dodgers and he’ll be opposed by the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez (13-8, 3.03 ERA). Tonight marks Kershaw's first start since June 26, as he went on the disabled list shortly after that due to a back injury. Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, was dominant this year before his injury, posting an 11-2 record with a 1.79 ERA (Dodgers are 14-2 in his starts). The $64,000 question will be, is he still the same Kershaw? Kershaw is 125-58 with a 2.39 ERA over his entire career but a modest 5-4 (2.40) over nine career starts vs. the Marlins (Dodgers are 5-4). Fernandez is 35-17 with a 2.62 ERA in his short career and truly shines at Marlins Park, where he is almost unbeatable at 27-2. His home/away splits have become even more pronounced this year, as he’s 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA on the road (team is 5-7) and 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at home (team is 10-4). The pick: Kershaw is expected to be on a pitch count in his first start since allowing four runs on nine hits in six innings of a 4-3 setback at Pittsburgh on June 26. As noted, Fernandez is a remarkable 27-2 at home in his career, with the Marlins going 33-7 in those 40 home starts. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the Marlins is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Pirates got a much-needed 4-3 win last night over the Cards, ending a eight-game losing slide. Pittsburgh can now work at getting get back above .500 with a strong weekend performance against the 58-71 Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates open this four-game series with the visiting Reds 4 1/2 games back of the NL’s second wild card spot, currently being held by the 73-65 Cards and the 74-66 Mets (those teams are in a virtual tie with winning percentages of .529). Cincinnati has lost four in a row and eight of 10 coming in and has been basically playing out the current season for quite awhile now. The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (11-7, 3.83 ERA) takes the mound for the Reds and Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.34 ERA ) does so for the Pirates. Straily is unquestionably 2016’s most “under the radar” starting pitcher. Straily has already made a career-high 29 appearances and makes his career-high tying 27th start in this game. It’s likely that not many realize that Straily takes the mound tonight with MLB’s third-best moneyline mark  among starters (plus-$1355), as the Reds are 17-9 in his 26 starts so far in 2016. Nova owns 11 overall wins in 2016 but since being acquired by the Pirates from the Yankees is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his six starts with since August 1 (Pittsburgh is 5-1 in his starts). The pick: Yes, Straily has had a remarkable season but he has struggled in his last two outings, allowing seven runs in 2 2/3 innings at the Los Angeles Angels before walking seven but letting up just one run in 5 2/3 innings to defeat St. Louis. The Pirates did lose for the first time in Nova's six starts with the team this past Saturday, although he allowed just two runs in six innings. The Pirates need a strong weekend and the Reds, just 23-44 on the road on the season, may be “just what the doctor ordered.” The Pirates are an 8* play.

The set-up: The New York Yankees were swept in a three-game series at Tampa Bay in late July. Having already traded Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs, that sweep convinced GM Brian Cashman to go into sell mode and trade off three other veterans and go with younger players. The teams met again in mid-August and on August 12, Alex Rodriguez had an RBI double in his last game for the Yankees. A-Rod’s exit came a week after Gary Sanchez was promoted and a day before Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin joined the team, as each player homered in their first at-bats. Now, as the Yankees and Rays open a four-game series at Yankees Stadium, New York has remained in the race for both the division and wild-card. The Yankees are 4 1/2 games out of first place and 2 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, The 59-79 Rays own a better AL record than only the Twins and the team’s moneyline mark of minus-$2536 ranks 29th among 30 MLB teams (again, Minnesota is the only team worse). The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and veteran C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.20 ERA) takes the mound for the Yankees. Cobb’s first outing went well as he retired the final 10 hitters in his five-inning outing against Toronto while allowing two runs and four hits. "I was happy in the fact that I felt back to competitive nature on the mound," Cobb said. "It wasn't being cautious, wasn't thinking about my mechanics or injury possibilities. I was just out there, wanting to get outs and I felt the groove of the game again." Sabathia has had a poor season but has pitched well in recent outings, owning a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts plus has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six outings. The pick: Cobb’s last start in New York was back on September 11, 2014 but he owns a 1.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is 14-14 with a 3.79 ERA in 40 all-time starts vs. Tampa Bay (teams are 20-20) but as a Yankee he is 7-13 with a 4.35 ERA in 29 games against the Rays. That doesn’t bode well but his current form is good (see above) and the Yankees have won four in a row and 10 of their last 14 games. Cobb’s a quality and pitcher and looked very good in his first start back and I see a low scoring contest. The under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Indians lost the first two of this four-game series against the Houston Astros but held on last night for a 6-5 win. Cleveland now looks to close out this series with another win and cap its 10-game homestand with a 7-3 mark.  The 80-58 Indians lead the AL Central by 5 1/2 games, while Houston’s loss leaves them at 74-65, two games back of the second wild card spot, in a four-way battle for the final spot with the Orioles (who currently own that No. 2 spot at 76-63), as well as the 75-64 Tigers and 73-65 Yankees. The pitching matchup: David Paulino will make his major league debut for the Astros in Thursday afternoon’s game, opposed by the Indians’ Trevor Bauer (10-6, 3.70 ERA). Paulino is ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the Houston organization and No.76 in all of baseball according to MLB.com. He pitched at three levels this year (Class-A, Double-A and Triple-A), going 5-4 with a 2.00 ERA in a combined 20 appearances (including 15 starts). He allowed a modest 72 hits over 90 innings with a KW ratio 106-19. Cleveland’s Bauer has become a mainstay in the rotation after starting the season in the bullpen. He checks in at 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his last six starts (Indians are 5-1), while holding opposing batters to a .215 batting average.  The pick: Paulino’s major-league debut (he’s filling in for 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, out with shoulder inflammation), comes against a brutally tough opponent. The Indians are 46-25 at home in 2016, averaging a ‘healthy 5.68 RPG. What’s more, Paulino’s mound opponent (Trevor Bauer) is a perfect 4-0 In four career starts against the Astros, posting an 0.67 ERA and has 36 Ks in 27 innings or work. Indians are an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Astros have surprised the Indians by taking the first two of this four-game series at Cleveland, ending Kluber’s seven-game winning streak last night in a 4-3 victory. An injury to ace Dallas Keuchel has caused a shakeup in the Astros' starting rotation but despite all the maneuvering, the Astros have pitched well in the first two games of the series, winning them both and outscoring Cleveland 10-5. The Astros have won three in a row overall and at 74-64, find themselves right in the thick of a four, five or maybe even a six-team race for one of two wild card spots. Meanwhile, despite the back-to-back home losses, the 79-58 Indians own a 4 1/2-game lead in the AL Central. The pitching matchup: Doug Fister (12-10, 3.91 ERA) gets the nod for Houston on Wednesday, opposed by Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (10-7, 3.06 ERA). Fister has struggled over his last five starts, going 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA. In one start against the Indians this year he pitched seven innings and gave up two runs and six hits. In 15 career starts versus Cleveland he is 5-3 with a 2.72 ERA but his teams are just 7-8. In contrast to Fister, Carrasco has been pitching well lately. He is 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA (28-2 KW ratio in 19 innings) over his last three starts he  He has not faced the Astros this year. In five career appearances -- four starts -- against Houston he is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA (teams are 2-2 in those starts). The pick: Elaborating on Fister’s recent troubles, he endured his worst outing of the season last Friday, allowing a season-high eight runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 10-8 loss versus Texas. Fister has allowed 21 runs on 35 hits in his last five outings, covering just 26 innings. Yes, the Indians have lost two in a row here at Progressive Field but they remain 45-25 on the season in their home park, averaging 5.67 RPG. Expect Cleveland to get to the struggling Fister and also note that Carrasco has struck out at least eight batters in six consecutive starts. Cleveland is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Marlins lost 4-3 to the Philadelphia Phillies last night, falling for a fifth straight time. Miami now looks to avoid a three-game home sweep by the Phillies on Wednesday, as the Marlins enter having lost 10 of their last 11. The team’s slump has almost eliminated them from serious wild card contention, as Miami is currently six games out of the NL’s second wild card berth. The 62-76 Phillies had dropped six in a row before running into the Marlins and are basically playing out the string of another losing campaign. The pitching matchup: Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 3.88 ERA) takes the mound for Philadelphia and Andrew Cashner (4-11, 5.00 ERA) for Miami. Hellickson’s 3.88 ERA puts him on pace to record his lowest ERA since 2012, when he was at 3.10. However, after delivering a string of six straight starts while allowing three or fewer runs (which bridged July and August), he has hit a speed bump in his last two outings. He’s allowed a total of nine ERs on 12 hits (including three HRs) and six walks over 10 innings against the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves (8.10 ERA). Cashner was acquired in a trade by the Marlins on July 28 and it’s hard to characterize it as having been anything but a disaster for Miami. The Marlins sent three players, including their top hitting prospect and a potential future closer, to the Padres and got Cashner in return, who is 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA in six starts since joining Miami (Marlins are 1-5). The pick: I guess it would be easy to go against Cashner but Hellickson has looked shaky his last two outings and it’s never easy for a team like Philly, which has played .449 baseball on the season, to sweep a road series. Miami is likely out of the playoff race but I’ll still back them here, to avoid the dreaded home sweep. Miami is n 8* play. 

The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals play the finale of a three-game series Wednesday at PNC Park. The Cards have won the first two by scores of 12-6 and 9-7, as the Cards (with five HRs last night) have extended their streak to 25 straight games of hitting at least one HR, which ties the longest streak in NL history. Tuesday’s result was Pittsburgh’s eighth loss in a row and leaves the Pirates at 67-70 and 5 1/2 games behind St. Louis in the chase for the final NL wild-card spot. A three game home sweep by the Cards would surely be a major blow to the Pirates run of three straight wild card appearances.  "I don't think we'll get any questions about fight and battle," Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle said. "That's what we do. We're going to fight. We're going to keep showing up. A lot of things went well (Tuesday) to get us back in the game to get us on top." The pitching matchup: Mike Leake (9-9, 4.56 ERA) heads to the hill for the Cards and Jameson Taillon (3-4, 3.25 ERA) gets the nod for the Pirates. Mike Leake returns from the DL after having shingles to get Wednesday’s start for St. Louis. It will be his first start since August 21, when he threw seven scoreless innings with a walk and eight strikeouts in a 9-0 win at Philadelphia. Leake was reached for five runs in six innings to suffer a loss against Pittsburgh on July 5 and is is 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA against Pittsburgh this season (he’s 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 27 career starts against the Pirates / teams are 12-15). The Pirates counter with rookie Jameson Taillon, who will be making his 15th start. Taillon found himself on the wrong end of a 1-0 final against Milwaukee last Friday, when he allowed one run and three hits in six innings. The pick: The Pirates almost find themselves in a “must win” situation in this game. They get a mediocre Mike Leake as a mound opponent who hasn’t pitched in two weeks plus counter with a rookie pitcher who is justifying his stature as a former No. 2 overall draft pick. He’s recorded a quality start in nine of his last 10 outings, allowing just 19 ERs in those 10 starts. Taillon has pitched at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and has given up one or zero walks in 11 of his 14 starts in 2016. Pittsburgh is a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Giants lost once again on Labor Day, 6-0 at Colorado. San Francisco is now a major league-worst 16-31 since the All Star break, a slide that includes 18 losses in their last 25 road games. The Giants are hitting a woeful .219 (91-for-416) with runners in scoring position in the second half. Bruce Bochy had hoped that the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field was going to help but the Giants were blanked on Labor Day by Bettis (complete-game, two-hitter), who entered the game with an ERA of 5.00-plus. The Rockies are going nowhere at 66-71 and for the second straight year have been disappointing at home (Rockies were 36-45 in 2015 and check in this year at a modest 36-34). The pitching matchup: Jeff Samardzija (11-9, 4.06 ERA) starts for San Francisco and Tyler Anderson (5-5, 3.43 ERA) for Colorado. Samardzjia has again underachieved but he’s pitched well in his few appearances vs. Colorado in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts (teams are 4-1). As for Anderson, his 3.43 ERA is the lowest in franchise history by a Rockies starter in his first 15 career starts. Anderson has allowed three or fewer runs in 12 outings, including Wednesday when he worked 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the first game of a doubleheader against the Dodgers, earning a 7-0 win. The pick: The Giants are in a funk but as noted already, Samardzija has pitched well against the Rockies. Yes, Anderson owns some decent numbers in his rookie season but also note that while he owns a 2.40 ERA in seven day starts, it’s almost two runs higher (4.31) in his eight evening starts. The Giants are a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Nationals ended Atlanta’s six-game winning streak on Labor Day, as Max Scherzer (7 IP / 7 hits / 2 ERs) earned his 16th victory of the season in a 6-4 win. The 80-57 Nats are cruising in the NL East (lead the Mets by  8 1/2 games) but surely won’t catch the Cubs for the NL’s best overall record, as Chicago checks in at 89-48 through Labor Day. Atlanta’ six-game winning streak was nice but the bottom line is, the Braves still own the NL’s worst record at 54-84 and are really no match for Washington. The pitching matchup: Williams Perez (2-2, 4.62 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta and Gio Gonzalez (10-9, 4.14 ERA) for Washington. Perez was activated from the 60-day disabled list (strained right rotator cuff) when rosters expanded on September 1 and he will make his first start since June 6. He’s made nine starts in 2016 (team is 6-3) and is 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA in two games (one start) this season against Washington. Perez made three rehab starts in the minor leaguers, with five shutout innings in his last start for Triple-A. Gonzalez has not had a good season overall but has picked the right time to pitch his best baseball of the season. He is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts (Nats are 2-1). His career record vs. Atlanta is not good though, going 4-8 with a 4.24 ERA (teams are 5-10 in his starts). The pick: Here’s the bottom line. The Braves are 26 1/2 games behind the Nationals this year and that pretty much says it all. On top of that, the Braves send an inexperienced pitcher out, making his first start since June 6 up against Gonzalez, who has now won at least 10 games in every season since 2010. Gonzalez has won five of his six decisions with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP since the All-Star break, allowing two ERs or less in seven of his nine second-half starts. He also owns a 2.31 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Washington is a 6* play.

The set-up: Toronto has split its past 16 games but it has not yet cost the Blue Jays first place in the AL East. Toronto lost 5-3 at the Yankees on Labor Day but the team’s 77-60 record is good enough for a one game lead over the 76-61 Red Sox. As for the Yankees, they are 5 1/2 games out of first place and 3 1/2 games out in a crowded wild card field. The three-game series continues tonight at Yankee stadium with Toronto’s offense in a slump, banging out just six extra-base hits (including one HR) in scoring a modest 16 runs in that 1-3 stretch, while batting only .222 as a team. The pitching matchup: Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.88 ERA) is back on the mound for Toronto and rookie Luis Cessa (4-0, 4.17 ERA) goes for the Yankees. Cessa makes his fourth start since entering New York's rotation. As a starting pitcher, Cessa is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA (Yanks are 3-0), going exactly six innings in each outing. Sanchez was given a brief minor-league stint in effort to limit his innings but returned last Wednesday and breezed through six innings at Baltimore, allowing an unearned run in a win. Sanchez is in his first full season as a starter and made two starts against New York in the first half, allowing one earned run in 12 2/3 innings (0.71 ERA). The pick: The Blue Jays will host the Red Sox in a key three-game series this weekend and can ill-afford to stumble anymore in this series. I’m betting on the better team (and the better pitcher) in this contest. Toronto is an 8* play. 

The set-up: Zack Greinke spurned the LA Dodgers and signed a six-year contract worth $206.5 million, with Arizona. The Diamondbacks hoped Greinke and other offseason acquisitions like Shelby Miller and Jean Segura would combine with Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas to give the team a real shot at playoff contention. in 2016. However, the 58-78 D’backs find themselves battling the 56-80 San Diego Padres just to stay out of last place in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have overcome key injuries (can you say Clayton Kershaw?) to enter Labor Day at 76-60, three games up on the Giants in the NL West. Of course, the Dodgers have been helped by the Giants second-half slide, which has seen San Francisco stumble to a 16-30 record since the All Star break. Zack Greinke (12-4, 4.17 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona vs. his ex-teammates in Monday’s series opener, opposed by one of the real bright spots of LA’s 2016 season, Kenta Maeda (13-8, 3.38 ERA). Greinke won 51 games and compiled a 2.30 ERA for the Dodgers from 2013 through 2015, finishing among the top-10 for the National League's Cy Young award all three seasons. That includes a second-place finish last year to the Cubs' Jake Arrieta, after leading the major leagues with a 1.66 ERA. Greinke spent the whole month of July on the DL and his ERA has ballooned to 4.17, his worst since 2010. Maeda saw his five-game winning streak come to a halt last Monday despite allowing just two runs on four hits in five innings of an 8-1 setback at Colorado. Maeda had won his previous four starts and earned victories in five successive decisions since July 23. During that stretch the Dodgers were 6-0 and he allowed 28 hits in 33 2/3 innings (30-7 KW ratio), while allowing hitters to bat just .226. The pick: Greinke is 3-0 (2.53 ERA) in five career starts vs. the Dodgers (teams are 5-0) but this is his first time pitching against them after leaving as a FA last off-season. Maeda will be pitching on six days' rest for the third time in his last four starts and I expect him to bring his “A-game” in this one. LA is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners open a four-game series Monday afternoon in Seattle but it comes on the heels of the Rangers sweeping all three games last week at Arlington. Any sliver of hope Seattle carried into last week’s series, in terms of the AL West race, was put to bed by the time the Rangers rolled 14-1 over the Mariners last Wednesday afternoon. Texas’s three-game sweep improved its season mark vs. Seattle to 11-4 and the 82-55 Rangers lead the 69-67 Mariners by 12 1/2 games in the AL West, plus Seattle’s wild card hopes (five games back with plenty of teams ahead of them) are all but vanquished as well. The pitching matchup:  Cole Hamels (14-4, 2.91 ERA) vs. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 3.48 ERA) is a battle of aces but both pitched poorly in last week’s series in Texas. Hamels lasted only 4 1/3 innings, while giving up six ERs on seven hits while walking four in a no-decision against the Mariners (Texas won 8-7). As for “King Felix,” he matched his shortest start of the season at Texas last Wednesday, giving up six ERs on four hits and four walks over just four innings in that 14-1 loss. Hernadez has not pitched like a ‘king’ against Texas in his career, going 17-23 (3.85 ERA) over 49 career starts (Seattle is 20-29). Meanwhile, in way fewer starts against Seattle, Hamels is 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA (teams are 7-2). The pick: Last week’s sweep at Texas knocked Seattle out of any kind of pennant contention in the AL West and likely dealt its wild card hopes a ‘death blow’ as well but I look for Hernandez to be “on his game,” after last Wednesday’s embarrassment. After all, he entered that contest 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his previous five starts (Seattle was 5-0!). Hernadez retuns to 'king' status in this one. Seattle is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Pirates have played in three consecutive NL wild card games, each season finishing behind the Cards, who have won the NL Central each of the last three years. Here in 2016, the Cubs have run away with the NL Central, so both the Cards and Pirates have been left to fight for one of two NL wild card spots. As of Labor Day morning, the 73-63 Giants own the top wild card spot with the 71-64 Cards holding down the second spot, 1 1/2 games back of San Fran. The 71-66 Mets are one game back of St. Louis and the 67-67 Pirates, in the throes of a season-worst six-game losing streak, sit 3 1/2 games back of the Cards. The two division rivals open a three-game series this afternoon at PNC Park and it’s fair to say that the Pirates are getting desperate. The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.53 ERA) will open the series for the Cards with Pittsburgh handing the ball to rookie Chad Kuhl (3-2, 3.70 ERA), who will be making his 10th major league  start. Wainwright has spent the season trying to prove he's still relevant. He opened the season poorly, going 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA in seven starts but then went 7-2 over a 12-start stretch (team was 9-3), while cutting more than two runs off his ERA (was down to 4.15 after a July 16th start). However, he enters this game winless in his last eight starts (he’s 0-3, the Cards are 4-4). Pittsburgh’s Kuhl is winless in his last three starts but he’s allowed three runs or less or in each of his last six starting assignments. The pick: Wainwright has a long history vs. the Pirates, going 14-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 28 all-time starts (Cards are 18-10), while Kuhl faces the Cards for the first time. I like what I’ve seen from Kuhl and believe he’s up to the challenge. The problem is, the Pirates have been shut out three times during their six-game slide and come off a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee in which they plated just four runs. The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: Washington took Friday's opener by a score of 4-1, giving them a four-game win streak. But after giving up a run in the first inning on Saturday, the Mets slammed the door both on the Nationals offense and their win streak, recording a 3-1 victory. While the Nationals' path to playoffs should be considered very safe at this point (9.5 game lead in the division), the Mets' is a little less unsure as they trail St. Louis (for the Wild Card) by two in the loss column entering Sunday. Neither team has done much scoring of late as Washington is averaging only 3.0 runs/game its last seven while the Mets are at 3.3.

The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer was originally going to start tonight for the Nationals, but he has been pushed back until tomorrow simply to get an added day of rest. This is a huge break for the Mets, who have not scored off Scherzer the last two times they've faced him. They'll instead face Reynaldo Lopez, who is being recalled from the Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. Things didn't go well for Lopez in his last big-league start as he allowed six runs in just 2.3 innings. That raises his ERA to 5.33 in five starts at this level. The Mets will go with Seth Lugo. While also a rookie with little big league experience, Lugo has allowed three runs or less in every start thus far. Advantage Mets.

The pick: It is such a huge break for the Mets not having to go against Scherzer. They are the more desperate team at this point as they are competing with multiple teams for that second Wild Card spot in the National League. Thus, I believe them to be the more 'desperate' club in tonight's contest. Throw in the fact that Washington has been held to four or fewer runs in each of its last seven games and we have an 8* play on the Mets.

The set-up: The Mariners snapped the Angels’ five-game winning streak Friday night but LA rebounded with an easy 10-3 win at Safeco last night. The struggling 60-75 Angels have begun to show some signs of life, winning six of seven while averaging 6.0 RPG. The Angels have won nine of 12, since falling a season-worst 21 games under .500 back on Aug. 20. Seattle used a nine-run second inning to win 11-8 on Friday but the team’s recent slide (2-9) has them 12 1/2 games back in the AL West and now five games back of the final AL wild card spot at 69-66. The pitching matchup: Matt Shoemaker (9-13, 3.91 ERA) gets the start for the Angels in the rubber match of this three-game series, opposed by Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma (14-10, 4.01 ERA). Shoemaker takes a three-game winning streak into this contest, continuing his steady turnaround.  Shoemaker owned a 9.12 ERA after his first five starts of 2016 but over his last 21 starts, he owns a 2.96 ERA. In direct contrast to Shoemaker, Iwakuma is 0-3 in his last three starts, posting a 5.63 ERA. Iwakuma had stepped up for Seattle with “King Felix” sidelined, going 13-13 from May 20 through August 13. The pick: LA is the hotter team right now but while Shoemaker owns a 2.96 ERA in his last 21 starts, the Angels are just 10-16 (minus-$609) in all of his starts in 2016. He’s 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA in nine career starts vs. Seattle (team is 5-4), including 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA versus the Mariners in 2016. Iwakuma is 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA (Seattle is 10-6) in his career vs. the angels and I’m making Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The Giants saw Bumgarner outduel Arrieta 3-2 on Saturday, giving San Francisco a chance to split its four-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley on Sunday afternoon. As noted often, the Giants owned MLB’s best record at the All Star break but an awful second half (16-29 since the All-Star break) leaves them 73-62, two games back of LA in the NL West, although they still lead the NL wild-card standings by 2 1/2 games over the Cards (3 1/2 games inside the playoff ‘cut line’). The 87-48 Cubs have run away with the NL Central (9 1/2-game lead) plus also own an eight-game advantage over the Nats, for the NL’s best overall record. The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-5, 2.98 ERA) gets the ball for the Giants and John Lackey (9-7, 3.41 ERA) for the Cubs. Cueto is off a tough outing in his last start, allowing four ERs in 4 2/3 innings on Tuesday in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in his shortest outing of the season. Cueto was 13-1 at one time but in his last nine starts has gone 1-4, with the Giants going 3-6.  He’s 9-8 with a 3.34 ERA in 23 career starts against the Cubs (teams are 12-11). Lackey is set to make his first start since he went on the disabled list back on Aug. 15 with a right shoulder strain. He is 6-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 13 home starts but the Cubs are just 7-6. In five career starts vs. the Giants (including the postseason), he’s 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA (teams are 2-3). The pick: The Giants just don’t seem likely to pull out of their post-break slump and Cueto’s lack of success mirrors the team’s (again, he’s 1-4 and the team 3-6 in his last nine starts). The Cubs own MLB’s best home record (50-20) and add to that mark, today. Make Chicago a 10* play.

The set-up: The 52-83 Atlanta Braves still own the worst record in the National League but have won five of their last six games, scoring seven or more runs in each of their last four contests. The presence of Matt Kemp in the middle of the lineup has provided a big boost. Kemp made his Atlanta debut back on August 2 and the Braves are averaging 5.2 runs and 9.4 hits while hitting .272 as a team. That's after batting .242 through the end of July. The Phillies are 60-74 overall but 25-29 since July 1, although they have now lost four in a row, as well as losing 11 of their last 15. The pitching matchup: John Gant (1-3, 4.59 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta and Vince Velasquez (8-6, 4.21 ERA) for the Phillies. Gant makes the fifth start (14th appearance) of his rookie season, following two relief efforts after missing two months with a left oblique strain suffered back on June 27. Gant owned a 3.38 ERA in four starts before the injury (he was 1-2 and the team 1-3). Philly's Velasquez won eight of his first 10 decisions but has struggled in his past eight starts, going 0-4 with a 5.76 ERA and a .292 opponents’ batting average (team is 1-7).

The pick: The Braves are playing the better baseball right now but I have little faith in Gant. As for Velasquez, his most recent outing was a 5-1 Phillies win in LA vs. the Dodgers, when he took a no-decision but allowed one ER in five innings with seven Ks and one walk. My "gut' says the Phillies are an 8* play..

The set-up: The Washington Nationals visit Citi Field to play the NY Mets in a three-game series starting Friday night, Unlike last year, the NL East is not up for grabs as September begins. The 78-55 Nationals lead the 69-65 second-place Mets (69-65) by 9 1/2 games and have already made plans for playoff baseball come October. The Nationals/Montreal Expos franchise has not won a playoff series since 1981, the longest drought in the "big four" sports. Is this the year that steak ends? However, it's first things first. The Mets won't catch the Nats but they are just two games behind the Cards in the race for the second wild card in the NL

The pitching matchup: A.J. Cole (0-1, 4.97 ERA) takes the mound for the Nats, opposed by the Mets' Noah Syndergaard (12-7, 2.55 ERA). This marks Cole's third start of the season (he made three appearances, including one start in 2015) and his first career appearance against the Mets. He owns a 4.97 ERA in 12 2/3 innings but opponents are hitting just .191 against him. Syndergaard has taken over the role of ace in 2016 for the Mets and seems to be getting stronger as he continues to pitch through a bone spur in his elbow. He's won three straight starts while posting a 1.31 ERA.

The pick: Syndergaard's 2,55 ERA ranks third in the NL and it's 2.49 in 15 home starts. The Mets will play with urgency in this series and I expect Syndergaard to help lead them to a win in this first game. The Mets are an 8* play.

The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies are in fourth-place in the NL East standings and the Atlanta have resided in fifth-place in that same division since the start of the 2016 season. However, as the two teams open a three-game series in Philadelphia on Friday, both are hoping to continue what's been much better play of late. Philadelphia finished August at 12-14 and is 25-28 since July 1, while the Braves are 18-17 since July 26.

The pitching matchup: Joel De La Cruz (0-7, 4.66 ERA) takes the mound for the Braves and Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 3.80 ERA) gets the ball for the Phillies. De La Cruz has made 15 appearances in 2016, including eight starts. He's 0-6 in those eight starts (Braves are 2-6), allowing 22 ERs and 14 walks in 41 innings (4.83 ERA). The Phillies tried to move Hellickson but were unable to find a trade partner. Sometimes, the trades a team doesn't make are the best ones. Hellickson is three victories shy of matching his career high in 2011 (13) while posting his lowest ERA since 2012 (3.10). He needs five strikeouts to set a career high (135 in 2013).

The pick: As noted above, both teams enter playing much better the last month or so but the pitching matchup in Friday's game give Philadelphia the big edge. Yes, the Braves are 18-17 since July 26 but De La Cruz has lost four of his five August starts, posting a 5.47 ERA. Meanwhile, Hellickson is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA  his past seven starts (Phillies are 6-1). The Phillies are an 8* play.

The set-up:The Baltimore Orioles' playoff hopes are fading with five losses in their last seven games. Baltimore is now four games behind Toronto in the AL East at 72-61, two games back of Boston for the No. 1 wild card spot and tied with Detroit for the final wild card spot, just one game up on Houston and 2 1/2 up on the NY Yankees. Those 69-63 Yankees are hoping to get back into the postseason race with this weekend's a three-game series at Camden Yards. Despite unloading a bevy of key players at the trade deadline, the New York Yankees have won six of eight and have clearly not "given up." The pitching matchup: Chad Green (2-3, 4.09 ERA) starts for the Yankees and Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.71 ERA) takes the mound for the Orioles. Green escaped with a no-decision against the Orioles his last time out (Saturday), allowing four runs on seven hits (three HRs) in just 4 2/3 innings. However, he had pitched well in his two previous starts, allowing just one earned run on seven hits over 12 innings. Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.71) has pitched fairly very well since joining the rotation in mid-July, although he's had trouble in two of his last three outings.

The pick: Bundy is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 16 appearances (five starts) at Camden Yards this season and despite some recent woes, the Orioles are 43-24 (plus-$1523) at home on the year. Baltimore is a 10* play.

The set-up: The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves meet in the final contest of a three-game series just past noon at Turner Field on Thursday. Both teams have spent the season trying to rebuild their farm systems and develop prospects but so far this week, the Braves have dominated the Padres with a 7-3 Tuesday win and an 8-1 victory on Wednesday. The Padres have dropped into last place in the NL West with losses in six of their last eight games and while the 50-83 Atlanta Braves also reside in last place in the NL East (28 games behind the Nats), Minnesota's 13-game losing streak has allowed them to move one game ahead of the 49-84 Twins for MLB's worst record. The pitching matchup:Jarred Cosart (0-1, 4.23 ERA) gets the nod for San Diego and Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 4.30 ERA) for Atlanta. Both pitchers are expected to be a big part of their respective teams' starting rotation for the foreseeable future. This marks Cosart's sixth start with the Padres since he was acquired from the Miami Marlins back on July 29. Cosart seems to have found a home with the Padres, having allowed one ER or less in four of his previous five starts. Foltynewicz was acquired by Atlanta before the start of the 2015 season from Houston and takes the mound this afternoon having not lost since August 2. The pick: Cosart is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four career starts vs. the Braves (teams are 3-1) but the Padres are in a funk, losing both games of this current series to fall to 25-43 on the road this season (note: Padres have allowed 38 runs, or 6.3 per, in their six losses over an eight-game stretch). Meanwhile, the Braves have moved ahead of the Twins for MLB's worst record and would love to keep it that way. Atlanta is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Royals beat the Yankees 8-5 on Monday but New York bested KC 5-4 in 10 innings on Tuesday night, a game which was interrupted by a 59-minute rain delay after the fifth inning. The rubber game of the series is tonight, as the Royals look to capture an eighth straight series. KC won 17 of 22 games  while taking seven consecutive series and after splitting two games with the Yankees, the 69-63 Royals are 69-63, three games out of the AL's final wild card spot (that's a half-game closer than the 68-63 Yankees are). The pitching matchup: Luis Cessa (4-0, 4.11 ERA) goes for the Yankees and Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.57 ERA) goes for the Royals.Cessa won his second consecutive start on Friday in a 14-4 rout of Baltimore. He has worked six innings in each of his last two trips to the mound, after making eight straight relief appearances in his first MLB season (two of his four wins have come in relief). Kennedy was once a highly-prized product of New York's farm system  (along with Phil Hughes), as he was selected as a  first-round pick in the 2006 draft. Kennedy's best season was 2011, when he was 21-4 for Arizona. However, he's gone 53-59 since, including 9-9 in 2016.

The pick: However, as noted above, KC is 18-6 its last 22 games and Kennedy is 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA over his last four starts (Royals are 4-0) and that makes KC a 10* play tonight.

The set-up: The Red Sox and Rays will play the rubber match of a three-game series this afternoon at Tropicana Field.The Red Sox won 9-4 on Monday (Porcello won his MLB-high 18th game) but the Rays rebounded with a 4-3 win last night. The 56-75 Rays are tied with the Twins for the worst moneyline mark (minus-$2456)) among all 30 teams and are just playing out the string, while the 73-59 Red Sox are battling for a playoff spot. Boston is two games back of Toronto in the AL East and one game up on Baltimore for the No. 1 wild card spot (Detroit is just two games back of Boston in that wild card race).

The pitching matchup: Drew Smyly (6-11, 4.80 ERA) gets the call for the Rays and Steven Wright (13-6, 3.18 ERA) for the Red Sox. However, while Smyly is five games under .500 on the season and owns an ERA of just under 5.00, he comes in as the much hotter pitcher than Wright, who is having a career year for the Red Sox.Smyly is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts (team is 5-2), having gone at least six innings in all seven outings. In fact, Smyly has a chance to break a team record on Wednesday, as he has thrown 20 1/3 straight scoreless innings against the Red Sox (Rays' record is the 25 1/3 straight by Matt Garza against the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008). Wright came off the 15-day DL (shoulder) to make a start last Friday against Kansas City and allowed five runs in the first inning before settling in with five straight scoreless ones. He wound up with a loss in that outing, his first since June 25.

The pick:Yes, Smyly takes that scoreless inning streak against Boston into this game, plus is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA in nine games (seven starts / teams are 4-3) against the Red Sox lifetime, including 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA in four appearances at Fenway. As for Wright, he faces Tampa Bay for the first time in his career but is 7-2 with a 4.30 ERA at Fenway Park this season. More importantly, while Smyly pitches for the sad-sack Rays (see record above),  Wright pitches for a Red Sox team which leads all MLB teams in runs scored (5.24 per), BA (.285) and OPS (.815). That makes Boston an 8* play.

The set-up: The Detroit Tigers have taken the first two games of their three-game series with the Chicago White Sox by scores of 4-3 and 8-4. The 71-61 Tigers sit 4 1/2 games out in the AL Central but just one game back for the AL's second wild card spot. As for Chicago, the season is over, as the White Sox are 12 games back in the same division and a 'healthy' 8 1/2 games out in the wild card chase. The pitching matchup:Chris Sale (15-7, 3.14 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago and Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.33 ERA) starts for Detroit. Sale has allowed three or less ERs in six of his last eight starts but has lost five his last six decisions (White Sox are 2-6 in the eight games). It seems like a lifetime ago that Sale was 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA after his first nine starts of 2016. In stark contrast, Verlander opened the season 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA after six starts but enters this contest on a run of nine consecutive quality starts. He's now 14-7 and his ERA has improved by more than three runs per outing! As noted above, while Sale has struggled to win lately, he's also allowed three ERs or less in six of his last eight starts. A look at Verlander's stat sheet and we find the last time the former Cy Young (and MVP) winner allowed more than ERs in game came back on June 26 (that's a stretch of 11 consecutive starts). The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The 55-76 Arizona Diamondbacks will visit AT&T Park for a quick two-game series with the 71-59 San Francisco Giants. The D'backs are going nowhere, while the Giants will play those D'backs in August's final two days, 1 1/2 games back of the LA Dodgers for the NL West lead. However, the Giants are still in excellent shape to return to the postseason, owning the top wild card spot, two games up on the Cards plus remain 3 1/2 games inside the playoff 'cut line.' The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (11-4, 4.29 ERA) gets the nod for Arizona and Johnny Cueto (14-4, 2.86 ERA) for San Francisco. Greinke went out with an injury in late June and didn't get back on the mound until August 8. In his four starts since coming off the DL, he's 1-1 (team is 2-2) with a 7.84 ERA. However, Greinke is 8-1 lifetime against San Francisco with a 2.41 ERA in 12 starts (teams are 10-2). Cueto's been San Francisco's best pitcher this season and like Greinke, has dominated the team he opposes tonight. Cueto is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 career starts against Arizona (teams are 9-2). The pick: However, here's the catch. The Giants came out of the All Star break with MLB's best record (57-33) but have gone 14-26, since! As for Cueto, he's 1-3 in eight starts since the All Star break (Giants are 3-5), posting a 3.91 ERA (he was 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA at the break). Taking the 1 1/2 runs with Arizona is an 8* play.

The set-up: As noted in playing the Angels over the Reds last night (a 9-2 winner), that while both teams have similar records and are going nowhere (Angels are 57-74 and the Reds are 55-75), the Angels make more sense in this IL series at Anaheim. The Angels came into the series having won four of five (make that five of six after Monday's win), while Reds had lost five six (make that six of seven, now). Also, Cincy has been a disaster away from home all season, as the Reds head into Tuesday's game just 23-42 on the road in 2016.

The pitching matchup: Rookie Tim Adleman (2-1, 3.68 ERA) will get the start for the Reds in the middle game of the series, opposed by veteran Jered Weaver (9-11, 5.31 ERA). Adleman was selected in the 24th round of the June 2010 draft by the Orioles but was released in 2012. He pitched for three independent minor-league teams in two seasons as a reliever, catching the Reds attention in 2013. Cincinnati signed him that October and he's made the "bigs" at 28-years-old in 2016. He makes his seventh career start here. There was a time not too along ago that Weaver was one of the AL's most consistent, if not best, starters. However, he's battled numerous injuries the last two seasons, costing him significant velocity (he now throws a fastball that averages between 83 and 84 mph).

Weavers is no longer a quality pitcher but we've yet to determine if Adelman will stick in the majors and we know the Reds are not a quality team, particularly on the road. LAA are an 8* play.

The set-up: The LA Angels and Cincinnati Reds open a three-game IL series Monday night in Anaheim. The teams are hardly familiar, as their head-to-head encounters total just nine all-time meetings. What they do have is common is their records, with the Reds checking in at 55-74 and the Angels at 56-74, with both teams residing in last-place in their respective divisions (Cincy is 27 games out in the NL Central and LA is 20 1/2 games out in the AL West). The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (10-6, 3.57 ERA) will go to the mound for the Reds and Matt Shoemaker (8-13, 3.98 ERA) for the Angels. Straily last lost back on July 8, 3-1 at Miami to the nearly unbeatable Jose Fernandez (that is, in Marlins Park, at least). Straily’s record stood at 4-6 after that game but since the Reds returned from the All Star break, Straily is unbeaten in eight starts, earning wins in six of them, with Cincinnati going a perfect 8-0. Straily’s hot streak makes him 16-8 in team starts in 2016 and he owns MLB’s second-best moneyline mark among starters at plus-$1345. In stark comparison, Shoemaker is 9-16 in team starts, minus-$709 vs. the moneyline. The pick: With two bad teams, it seems like backing the red-hot Straily would be the way to go. However, while the Reds limp in having lost five of seven, the Angels have won four of their past five games, beating playoff contenders Toronto and Detroit during that stretch. What’s more, Shoemaker has pitched much better than his record shows. He has given up two ERs or less in more than half of his starts (13 of 25) but has been able to come away with a win in just six of those 13. A lack of run support has been the problem, as the Angels have scored as many as four runs in only 11 of Shoemaker's 25 starts. Shoemaker hasn’t need much run support in winning his last two starts (1.38 ERA) but he should get that support here, as Straily owns a 6.69 ERA against the Angels in seven career starts (when pitching for Oakland & Houston). Angels are an 8* play. 

The set-up: The Texas Rangers are 8 1/2 games up in the AL West on both the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. Starting Monday, the Rangers will play their next 10 games against the Mariners (seven) and Astros (three), so there is a possibly the AL West could be all but decided in the next two weeks. Seattle and Texas open a three-game series tonight at Globe Life Park. The Mariners have dropped five of their last six to fall three games behind Baltimore for the second AL wild-card spot and the pressure is on to “win now,” if Seattle wants to keep its playoff hopes alive, as the Mariners hope to reach the postseason for the first time since 2001. The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (14-9, 3.81 ERA) of Seattle and Yu Darvish (4-3, 2.91 ERA) of Texas make this just the 14th time in major-league history two Japanese-born pitchers will square off. Iwakuma opened the season 1-4 (4.38) through his first eight starts but has since factored into the decision in each of his last 18, going 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA. Despite losing two straight, he’s 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break. Darvish will make his 12th start of 2016, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. "I think I'm in a better position than I expected. Looking around at other guys who have had Tommy John surgery compared to some of the guys who are struggling, I think I'm in a better place than I was expecting," he said. Darvish has a 48-4 KW ratio over his last six starts and has not lost at home this season (4-0 with a 2.80 ERA in six home starts / Rangers are 4-2). The pick: Iwakuma is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Rangers (Mariners are 11-6), while Darvish is 4-3 with 4.50 ERA in nine starts (Rangers are 5-4) against Seattle. Game 1 of the series is a “big one” for Seattle and while Darvish has posted excellent numbers in his 2016 “comeback,” the Rangers are just 6-5 in his 11 starts. Iwakuma has been Seattle’s ace this season, as injuries have limited “King Felix” to 18 starts, and taking the 1 1/2 runs is YUGE! Seattle is a 9* play on the run-line.

The set-up: The Red Sox open the new week with a three-game home series against the last-place Tampa Bay Rays. 55-74 Tampa is not only 18 1/2 games out of first-place in the AL East but the Rays’ minus-$2517 moneyline mark is the worst of all 30 MLB clubs. As for Boston, the 72-58 Red Sox find themselves two games back of Toronto in the AL East but are owners of the top AL wild card spot. Boston leads Baltimore by one game in that department and is three games inside of the AL playoff ‘cut line.’ The pitching matchup: Matt Andriese (6-5, 3.71 ERA) will get the nod for Tampa Bay, while Rick Porcello (17-3, 3.23 ERA) gets the call for Boston. Andriese seems in over his head in this matchup, having gone 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in eight appearances since the All-Star break (five starts / three in relief). He has pitched twice against Boston this year, an impressive two-inning relief outing at Fenway Park on July 10 and last week's quality start, when he gave up three runs in six innings. That said, Andriese will contend with a Boston lineup which ranks first in all of MLB in runs scored (5.42 per), BA (.284) and OPS (.815). Porcello will go for his 18th win, while also making a bid to become the first Red Sox pitcher in 70 years to start a season 13-0 at home. He brings a 12-0 (2.96 ERA) home record in 13 starts (Boston is 13-0) to the mound tonight at Fenway Park. The pick: Porcello is in the first year of a five-year contract extension worth $82.5 million and is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate. He’s 11-1 with a 3.12 ERA since May 22 and Boston is 11-2 in his 13 starts since June 18. Boston lost a 4-2 lead last night when KC scored eight runs in the top of the sixth, giving the Red Sox their fourth loss in five games.  Boston fell two games behind first-place Toronto in the AL East but still owns the No. 1 wild card spot. A bounce-back from last night is needed and Porcello is the pitcher Boston wants on the mound. The Red Sox are a 6* play.

The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays completed a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins with a 9-6 victory on Sunday afternoon and coupled with Boston’s loss Sunday night, the Jays open the new week with a two-game lead in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Baltimore avoided a three-game sweep in New York with a 5-0 Sunday win and will open the new week in third-place in the AL East, three games back of the Blue Jays. Baltimore owns the second wild card spot (one game back of the Red Sox) and two games clear of Detroit, as well as three games up on the trio of Houston, KC and Seattle. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-6, 3.47 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto and Wade Miley (8-10, 5.51 ERA) for Baltimore. Estrada owns a solid 3.47 ERA on the season but comes off back-to-back starts in which he has given up 11 ERs on 15 hits (five HRs) in just nine innings (11.00 ERA). Miley has struggled since the team acquired him from the Mariners in a late July trade. He finally won his first game as an Oriole when he beat Washington 10-8 last Wednesday. He allowed just two runs in that one but also lasted only five innings. He’s 1-2 in five starts with Baltimore (team is 2-3) but owns an ‘ugly’ 8.18 ERA. The pick: Yes, Estrada's ERA has jumped by more than half a run after his last two starts (see above) but he owns a 3.71 ERA in three starts versus Baltimore this season (Jays are 2-1). He’s 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts (teams are 5-2) versus the Orioles. Meanwhile, Miley is just 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA versus the Blue Jays over five career starts (teams are 2-3). The Orioles own an impressive 42-22 record at Camden Yards but note that they lost five of six there on their last homestand. With Miley on the mound, Baltimore loses another home game to the AL East’s best team. Toronto is a 9* play.

The set-up: The Boston Red Sox own the best offense in the majors, leading all teams in runs scored (5.43 per), BA (.284) and OPS (.815). However, Boston had totaled just seven runs in losing three consecutive games, before Saturday’s 8-3 win over KC. The three-game skid dropped Boston out of a first-place tie with the Blue Jays but Sunday night on ESPN the Red Sox will look to keep pace with Toronto (Jays enter Sunday one game up on the Red Sox) when they host the surging Kansas City Royals in the rubber match of this three-game series. Kansas City’s Danny Duffy endured a rare rough outing on Saturday (5 IP / 9 hits / 7 ERs) but the Royals have played their way back into playoff contention with wins in 14 of their last 17 games! The pitching matchup: Yordano Ventura (9-9, 4.27 ERA) takes the mound for KC and Eduardo Rodriguez (2-5, 5.11 ERA) for Boston. Ventura entered August after going 0-4 with a 4.55 ERA in five July starts (Royals were 0-5) but is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five August starts (Royals are 5-0). That’s quite a turnaround with his rise coinciding KC streaking up the standings. Rodriguez is making his first start since leaving a no-hitter after four innings at Baltimore back on August 16 with a left hamstring injury. Rodriguez pitched a simulated game without incident at Tampa Bay earlier in the week and looks to continue a run in which he has allowed three or fewer ERs in seven straight starts since returning from the minors back on July 16. The pick: Boston is one game behind Toronto in the AL East and leads the AL wild card race, two games ahead of second-place Baltimore and three clear of the Detroit Tigers. The Royals are three games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, as they have not lost and a series this month. However, Ventura has a poor history vs. Boston (5.48 ERA in four starts), while Rodriguez faced Kansas City twice in his 2015 rookie campaign, allowing a total of three ERs in 12 1/3 innings (2.19 ERA). Boston broke of of its “mini-slump” Saturday and MLB’s top offense wins the day (night) in Fenway. Boston is an 8* play.

The set-up: Arizona fell 22 games below .500 on August but have been a .500 team since, going 10-9. The D’backs are 3-2 on their current seven-game homestand with each of the team’s wins coming in walk-off fashion. The most recent came Friday, when Arizona won on a two-out wild pitch in the 11th inning. The Reds have lost four of five entering tonight’s game and like the 54-75 D’backs are just playing out the string at 54-73. The pitching matchup: Cincinnati will send Anthony DeSclafani (7-2, 3.27 ERA) to the mound, opposed by Arizona’s Zack Godley (4-2, 5.53). DeSclafani was picked to start the 2016 season opener for the Reds but a strained oblique sidelined him for more than two months. He didn’t make his first start this season until June 10 and quite surprisingly, didn’t suffer his first loss until his 12th start. DeSclafani was 6-0 in his opening 11-start stretch and while the Reds were 7-4 (.636) in those games, that’s quite an impressive mark for a team currently playing .425 baseball on the season. Godley made nine appearances (six starts) in 2015 and has made 15 appearances (eight starts) here in 2016. He’s coming off an effort in which he was pummeled for seven ERs on nine hits in just five innings against Atlanta this past Monday (he escaped with a no-decision). The pick: Godley has pitched poorly at home in 2016, with a 5.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in eight appearances, which includes six starts. In contrast, while DeSclafani gave up four runs on eight hits in seven innings this past Sunday in a 4-0 loss to the LA Dodgers, he had allowed three runs or less in 12 of his first 13 starts in 2016. The Reds are a 10* play.

The set-up: The Indians and Rangers opened a four-game series Thursday night in Arlington, with the two first-place teams battling for the AL’s best record and for a “leg up” on the top seed in the junior circuit’s playoff standings, down the stretch. Half-way through it’s been a wash, with the teams trading blowout victories. Texas won 9-0 on Thursday and then Cleveland returned the favor with a 12-1 win last night. Cleveland entered last night’s game in an offensive funk (three runs scored in their previous four games) put Friday pounded out 17 hits and without the benefit of a HR, plated 12 runs. The teams are now tied with 54 losses apiece, although the Rangers (75) own two more wins than the Indians (73). The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (9-6, 3.12 ERA) gets the ball for the Indians and A.J. Griffin (5-3, 4.68 ERA) for the Rangers. The Rangers and Griffin need to be concerned, facing a Cleveland offense which ranks fifth in MLB (2nd in the AL) in runs scored at 4.97 per game, considering Griffin owns  a 6.69 ERA over his last eight starts (he’s 2-3 and the Rangers are 4-4). He has surrendered six runs in two of his last three home starts at and will face Cleveland’s Carrasco, who is coming off an excellent outing at Oakland this past Monday. Carrasco struck out nine and scattered four hits over eight scoreless innings for his second straight victory. He has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four starts and has not issued a walk in the last three. The pick: The Indians broke out of a hitting slump last night and tonight face the struggling Griffin. Meanwhile, Cleveland sends Carrasco to the mound and he’s been outstanding all season-long on the road. As compared to his home struggles, where Carrasco owns a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 10 starts, his numbers in 10 road starts a very impressive. Carrasco has allowed just 41 hits over 67 1/3 innings, posting a 1.74 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and has 72 Ks against only 13 walks. Cleveland is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers opened a four-game series in Arlington last night, as the two first-place clubs battle for the AL’s best record. Game 1 of the series was a clear knockout by Texas, as Cole Hamels threw eight scoreless innings (two hits allowed with eight Ks and zero walks) in the Rangers’ 9-0 win. The victory gives Texas a 75-53 record, which is two games better than Cleveland’s 72-54 mark. Cleveland boasts the second-highest scoring offense in the AL at 4.91 RPG, but Thursday’s shut out continued the team’s current lack of ‘punch.’ The Indians have scored just six runs over the last five games. The pitching matchup: Corey Kluber (13-8, 3.13 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland and Martin Perez (8-9, 4.27 ERA) does so for Texas. Kluber won the Cy Young award in 2014 but then fell to 9-16 in 2015, while posting MLB’s worst moneyline mark among all starters (Indians were 11-21, minus-$1747 in his 32 starts). Kluber’s 2016 season didn’t seem to be going too much better until July but after losing on July 3rd, Cleveland’s ace has gone 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 57 strikeouts over his last eight outings (teams is 6-2). Perez once again struggled away from home in his last outing, giving up six runs over as six innings at Tampa Bay. He’s now 1-8 with a 6.23 ERA in 13 road starts in 2016 (Texas is 4-9). The pick: However, while Perez has been a nightmare away from home, he’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in Arlington, as Texas is 10-3 in those home starts. That said, Perez’s home record is not enough to sway me from backing the red-hot Kluber and his 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts in Friday’s contest. Cleveland is a 10* play.

The set-up: The KC Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series, losing a dramatic seven-game series in 2014 to the Giants but then rolling 4-1 over the Mets in winning the team’s first title since 1980 in 2015. KC looked like a playoff pretender, not a contender at the start of August, as the Royals were just 49-55. KC fell to 51-58 after July August 5 but the Royals have since gone 15-3, including a nine-game winning streak from Aug.14-23. All of a sudden, KC’s playoff hopes are alive, as the Royals are four games out in the chase for the AL’s second wild card spot. The Boston Red Sox just finished a four-city road trip that ended with two losses to the last-place Rays. Boston’s 7-4 mark leaves them tied with the Toronto Blue Jays (71-56) for the AL East lead, with the Baltimore Orioles a game behind. The pitching match-up: Ian Kennedy (8-9, 3.58 ERA) will take the mound for KC and Steven Wright (13-5, 3.01 ERA) is ready to make his first appearance since August 6, having been on the DL since August 15. Ian Kennedy signed a five-year, $70 million free agent contract with the Royals this past offseason but for most of the year he has been a disappointment. However, the Royals have won his last three starts with Kennedy posting an 0.86 ERA. Going back five starts, Kennedy’s ERA is even lower at 0.79. "That's five starts in a row where he's been completely in control. He's just been throwing the ball extremely well," manager Ned Yost said after Kennedy's last start. Wright threw a bullpen session in St. Petersburg, Fla. and was pronounced ready to make his first appearance since August 6 on Friday night. Wright entered this season with just 26 career appearances (11 starts) but takes the mound with 13 wins in 2016 (over 22 starts), having not lost since June 25 (he’s 5-0 and the team 6-1 in those seven starts). The pick: KC is sure on a roll, as is Kennedy, but the Red Sox lead all of MLB in runs scored (5.43 RPG), team BA (.283) and OPS (.813). Let’s not ignore the fact that the Royals are only 26-40 on the road, compared to their 40-21 home record, giving them MLB’s top home moneyline mark (plus-$1983). Boston is a 10* play.

The set-up: The 63-61 Pittsburgh Pirates lost five of six games on their recently completed homestand to fall 3 1/2 games back of the NL’s second wild card spot, with the Marlins two games in front of them. Pittsburgh has been a participant in each of the last three wild card games in the NL and will get a chance at picking up some ground this weekend, as they open a four-game series in Milwaukee. The Brewers have matched their season high with four consecutive victories, scoring six or more runs in five of their last seven but are still just 57-70 on the season. The pitching matchup: Chad Kuhl (3-1, 3.62 ERA) gets the nod for Pittsburgh with Wily Peralta (5-9, 6.00 ERA) taking the mound for the Brewers. Rookie Chad Kuhl will make his eighth career start for Pittsburgh and his fourth since he was recalled from the minors on August 9. Kuhl lost for the first time in seven major-league starts last Saturday, when he gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 3-1 loss to Miami. Perlata has had a very disappointing season for the Brewers in 2016,getting demoted to Triple-A Colorado Springs for nearly two months. He is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA in three starts since returning to the Brewers on August 9 and on the season Milwaukee is 6-10 (minus-$356) in his 16 starts. The pick: There can be no denying the Pirates’ troubles with the Brewers, who own a 103-54 record against them since the 2007. In particular, the Pirates open this series having lost have nine in a row in at Miller Park, falling to 17-64 since the start of that 2007 season! However, Peralta has been on shaky ground all year and Kuhl has seen the Pirates go 6-1 in his seven starts in 2016, giving him the 12th-best moneyline mark (plus-$895) among starters in 2016. Pittsburgh earns a top rating of 10*s. 

The set-up: The 60-65 Chicago White Sox have fallen out of the playoff chase, sitting 12 games back of the AL West-leading Rangers, as well as falling 9 1/2 games out of the second AL wild card spot. host. A season in which Chicago opened 23-10 has turned into one in which the White Sox are playing out the string. Seattle was among the hottest teams in baseball with 15 wins in 20 games but lost the final two games of its three-game home series with the Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 67-59 Mariners will open a four-game weekend series at U.S. Cellular Field on Thursday, 6 1/2 games behind first-place Texas but also just three games outside of an AL wild card spot. The pitching matchup: James Paxton (4-5, 3.53 ERA) is expected to start for Seattle, opposed by Chicago’s Anthony Ranaudo (1-1, 9.42 ERA). Paxton will be activated from the 15-day DL (he was placed there back on August 7 with an elbow injury), after making a rehab start for Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday. Paxton’s last start was back on August 7 and on the season, Seattle is 4-9 in his starting assignments in 2016 (minus-$652). Ranaudo will be making his third start since being acquired from Texas and first since escaping with a no-decision at Cleveland back on August 17, when he allowed five ERs on eight hits in just five runs and eight hits in four innings. Ranaudo had made just two relief appearances with the Rangers before the trade and now, in two starts for Chicago, has allowed eight ERs on 10 hits (including four HRs) over 10 2/3 innings (6.75 ERA). The pick: Seattle needs a good weekend in Chicago, as beginning next Monday, the Mariners begin the first of seven head-to-head games with the Rangers over an 11-day stretch. Paxton is not a  shut down type pitcher but he’s ‘light years’ ahead of Renaudo. Seattle is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Giants came out of the All Star break with MLB’s best record (57-33) but after last night’s 9-5 loss in LA to the Dodgers, the Giants find themselves two games back of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Francisco is now just three games inside the playoff ‘cut line,” which is what happens when a team goes a woeful 11-24 since the break, the worst record of any team in MLB! The Dodgers have caught the Giants, despite the fact that Clayton Kershaw has not taken the mound since June 26. What’s more, starting pitchers Brett Anderson (blister) and Scott Kazmir (neck inflammation) joined ace Clayton Kershaw (back) on the DL, yesterday. The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-3, 2.90 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco, opposed by Rich Hill (9-3, 2.25 ERA). Hill has been on the disabled list himself (because of a lingering left middle finger blister), since being acquired from Oakland on August 1. Expectations are high for Hill, who makes his debut for the Dodgers, against the hated-Giants. He was cleared for this start after throwing 78 pitches in a simulated game at the Dodgers’ training complex in Arizona last Thursday. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is eager to see Hill face off against the team’s most bitter divisional rival. “What attracted us to Rich at the deadline was his high-end potential,” Friedman told reporters. “We felt that he was a guy who could pitch very well against the best lineups in baseball.” The Giants are 19-6 (plus-$982) in Cueto’s starts this season but Cueto has won just once, over his last seven starts. The pick: However, that win came in his last outing, when he allowed one run over seven innings of an 8-1 victory. In his previous start, Cueto left with a 7-3 lead, only to see the Giants’ bullpen allow five runs in the final two innings of an 8-7 loss. I expect both pitchers to be “on their games” in this one and that makes the under a 10* play.

The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds are 54-71, hopelessly 26 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. However, after Tuesday’s 3-0 win over the Rangers, the Reds own a 22-14 record and have captured eight of 11 series since the All-Star break. The Reds can make that nine of 12 with a win Wednesday at home vs. the Rangers, as the teams cap a brief two-game interleague series. The Rangers were blanked for the third time in nine games on Tuesday and have been outscored 19-6 during their current three-game skid. Still, Texas owns a 73-53 record, as well as a 5 1/2 game lead over Seattle in the AL West. The Rangers are also battling the 72-52 Indians plus the Blue Jays and Red Sox (both 71-54), for the AL’s No. 1 seed. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (4-3, 2.75 ERA) heads to the mound for Texas, opposed by Cincy’s Tim Adleman (2-1, 2.96 ERA). Darvish will make his 11th start of the season on Wednesday night and will do so on six days rest. "It's a positive," Darvish told reporters last week via an interpreter. "I didn't feel like I needed it, but getting rest is beneficial for me." Darvish is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts and takes the mound on a run of  six consecutive quality starts. Reds rookie Adleman will be making only his sixth career start and second since he was recalled from Triple-A on August 16. The pick: Adleman’s 9-2 win over the Dodgers last Friday was his first start in three months (last pitched in the majors back on May 19th). He was recalled from Triple-A when Michael Lorenzen went on the bereavement list and Adleman blanked the Dodgers on five hits over five innings, picking up his second major-league victory. He's 2-0 with a 2.03 in three home starts (Reds are 2-1) and this marks his first appearance against the  Rangers. Darvish has begun to find a groove but the Rangers still plan to be careful with how they utilize their right-handed ace (hence, the six days’ rest!). Darvish has been dominant in interleague play, posting a 1.90 ERA in 11 starts against the NL foes (he’s 7-2). Darvish has yet to win away from home, despite a 2.66 ERA (he’s 0-3 and the team 1-3). However, he’s waaay overdue! Texas is a 6* play.

The set-up: The Indians and A’s meet in the rubber match of a three-game series in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Cleveland won 1-0 on Monday but Oakland rolled to a 9-1 victory last night. The loss leaves the Indians at 72-52 but still 6 1/2 games over the Tigers in the AL Central, while the 54-72 A’s have been playing out the string for quite some time now. Awaiting the Indians after this game and series is a four-game set in Texas against the AL West-leading Rangers, who own a 73-53 record. At stake will be the best overall record in the AL, which not only earns the top team a shot at the wild-card winner in the first round of the playoffs but also gives it the home-field advantage in the ALCS should it get there. The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (9-5, 3.88 ERA) will take the mound for the Indians and Kendall Graveman (9-8, 4.09 ERA) for the A’s. Cleveland would not only love a win here against a weakling like the A’s (heading into the series with Texas) but also hope that Bauer can produce a strong effort, keeping Cleveland’s bullpen fresh for its upcoming series against the Rangers. Bauer enters Wednesday's game on the heels of a season-best, 13-strikeout performance against the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays last Friday. He pitched eight innings of two-run ball but did not get a decision in the Indians' 3-2 win. Bauer will square off with Graveman, who is Oakland's hottest pitcher. Graveman is 8-2 with a 3.47 ERA in his last 15 starts (team is 11-4) and his seven wins since June 23 are the fifth-most in the AL. The pick: Yes, Graveman has been solid for quite a long stretch but he’s 0-2 in three career starts versus the Indians (team is 0-3), including when he squared off against Bauer on July 29, surrendering four runs (three earned) on six hits in 6 1/3 innings at Cleveland in a 5-3 loss. As for Bauer, he’s been a very effective starter away from home in 2016. While his home ERA is 4.62, it’s 3.03 in 13 starts road starts. Cleveland is 8-5 in those starts with Bauer going 6-2. He goes for a 7th road win this season today and only seven AL starters, Texas' Cole Hamels (9-2 on the road), Houston's Doug Fister (9-3), Detroit's Michael Fulmer (8-3), Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (7-1), Toronto's J.A. Happ (7-2), Baltimore's Chris Tillman (7-3) and the Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale (7-4), have reached that level. That’s pretty good company. Cleveland is a 9* play.

The set-up: The Miami Marlins are fresh off a road sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they get set to open a three-game series against the 2015 World Series champions, the Kansas City Royals. The 64-60 Royals likely won’t be able to defend their title this season, as they are currently in third place in the AL Central (8 1/2 games back of the Indians) and while they are “only” four games back in the wild card race, there are three teams between them and that final wild card spot. However, KC opens this series with the longest active winning streak in MLB, at eight games. The pitching matchup: Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.46 ERA) gets the starting assignment for the Royals, with Andrew Cashner (4-9, 4.92 ERA) taking the mound for the Marlins. Ventura has disappointed in 2016 but is 2-0 with a 2.52 ERA over his last four starts (team is 4-0) plus has limited eight consecutive opponents to three or fewer runs, despite owning just a 2-3 record in that span (KC is 4-4). Cashner was acquired from the Padres on July 31 and will make his sixth appearance (fifth start) for the Marlins. He’s looking for his first victory as a Marlin, having posted a 5.48 ERA so far. The pick: Cashner has pitched reasonably well in home starts this season (for SD & Mia), going 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA (teams are 6-5 in his 11 home starts). Yes, Kansas City has won five straight series and 13 out of 15 games but I don’t trust Ventura much, who owns a 4.57 ERA in 11 career interleague games. Miami is a 10* play. 

The set-up: The Boston Red Sox finish the season with 22 of their remaining 38 games on the road but that doesn’t seem like bad news, as Boston’s 6-2 win last night at Tampa Bay gives them a 32-27 record away from Fenway, good enough to be the second-best road record in the AL. The victory moved Boston into a tie for first place in the AL East with the idle Toronto Blue Jays, while the last-place Rays lost for only the second time in their last eight outings. In speaking about his team’s road challenges the remainder of the season, Boston manager John Farrell said, "We've embraced it. So much has been made that we're going to have such a tough road, and don't get me wrong, we have a tough road ahead of us, regardless of where we're playing. But the fact that our guys have let it roll off their back. They've bonded even closer together as we get deeper into the season." The pitching matchup: Two pitchers who have had past success but have struggled in 2016 square off in tonight’s game. Clay Buchholz (4-9, 5.42 ERA) goes for Boston and Chris Archer (7-16, 4.18 ERA) for Tampa Bay. Buchholz was sent to the bullpen but is making his third straight start since returning to the role of starter, tonight. His confidence could (should?) be high, considering he owns a 2.63 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Rays, the second best of any pitcher with 10 or more starts. Archer was an All Star last year but is having a ‘nightmare’ season in 2016. He currently owns the worst moneyline mark of any starter this season, with the Rays just 7-16 in all of his outings, giving him a minus-$1228 mark at $100/game. The pick: To make matters worse for Tampa Bay, Archer is 1-9 in his career with a 5.82 ERA against Boston, having lost nine straight decisions. He’s faced the Red Sox three times in 2016, going 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA. Yes, Archer has struggled vs. the Red Sox and is having an awful season but Buchholz is not the kind of pitcher I’m willing to back on the road. From late May until just recently, he made just three starts in 15 appearances and only returned to the Boston rotation on August 13 because of injuries to the rotation. Tampa Bay is a top rated 10* play.

The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game home series against the LA Angels at 70-54, which leaves them tied with the Boston Red Sox atop the AL East, two games up on the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays' lineup is beginning to return to normal, as third baseman Josh Donaldson returned to the lineup Sunday following a two-game absence because of a jammed thumb. Kevin Pillar is expected to be reinstated from the DL after going 6-for-7 with a double and two RBI in two games for Class A Dunedin on a rehabilitation assignment plus Jose Bautista is eligible to return from the DL (sprained left knee) on Thursday, although it’s not certain he will be ready for that game. As for the 52-72 Angels, they open this series having lost 10 straight road games, allowing an average of 6.9 runs during their skid. The pitching matchup: Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA) takes the mound for the Angels and R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51 ERA) does the same for the Blue Jays. Skaggs will be making just his sixth start of the season. He underwent Tommy John surgery back in August 2014 and missed all of 2015. He returned to the mound after this year’s All Star break with his first start coming July 26) with seven strong innings in a 13-0 victory at Kansas City. However, he’ll enter this game having allowed 15 ERs on 25 hits over 13 2/3 innings over his last three starts (9.88 ERA). Dickey’s struggles continue for Toronto. He allowed just one run in five innings in his last outing but took a 1-0 loss at Yankee Stadium on August. He’s now 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA in his last six starts (team is 2-4) and he’s 2-8 with a 5.57 ERA in 13 home starts in 2016 (Jays are 3-10). The pick: Toronto has struggled in close games this year, posting a 14-22 record in one-run games, dropping a pair of such contests to AL Central leader Cleveland over the weekend. However, despite Dickey’s woes this year, he’ll face an Angels team which enters on a 10-game road losing streak (see above details) and Skaggs’ recent efforts have been abysmal. I don’t expect the Blue Jays to miss this winning opportunity against such a weak opponent and starting pitcher. Toronto is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Cleveland Indians took two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend and lead the AL Central by seven games. Cleveland arrives in Oakland with a 71-51 record and gets three games with the 53-71 A’s, before heading to AL West-leading Texas for a four-game series beginning on Thursday. The Indians arrive in Oakland off an 8-3 homestand and face a team which has lost for the seven of its last eight after Sunday's 4-2 defeat versus the White Sox. The Indians currently trail the 73-52 Rangers by only percentage points (.582 to .584) for the best record in the AL and surely don’t want to slip up before venturing to Arlington. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (8-6, 3.34 ERA) gets the nod for Cleveland, while rookie Andrew Triggs (0-1, 4.98 ERA) will make just his fourth start of 2016 (has made 21 overall appearances so far this season). Carrasco has only one win to show for his last five starts (team is 1-4) but it's worth noting that four of those five games have been played at home. He is 1-2 with a 6.66 ERA in August (team is 1-3) but the Indians have to like the fact that in nine road starts this season, Carrasco owns a 1.97 ERA (third-best in all of MLB). Triggs has seen the A’s lose all three of his previous starts in 2016, despite a decent 3.55 ERA. The pick: Carrasco owns a 2.25 ERA in three games, including two starts, against the A's in his career. He’s posted a 1.69 ERA in those two starts (both coming last season), including pitching a two-hitter at Oakland the last time he saw them back on July 30, 2015. Triggs makes a third straight start and his 3.55 ERA in three starts this season is far better than his 5.58 ERA in 18 relief appearances. Cleveland outscored Oakland 19-6 during a three-game home sweep from July 29-31 and should get this series off on the right foot behind Carrasco and that 1.97 road ERA. Cleveland is an 8* play. 

The set-up: The 69-54 Boston Red Sox open a new week a half-game back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, while also currently holding down the No. 1 spot in the AL wild card spot. The 52-70 Tampa Bay Rays get set to host the Red Sox for a four-game series ‘buried’ in last-place and 17 games back of the Jays. Boston is 5-2 so far on its 11-game road trip, making its final stop with games Monday through Thursday. The Rays have dropped out of the AL East race a long time ago but have been competitive since the All Star break (18-16) and hope to play “spoiler” in the playoff chase to rest of the way. Sunday’s 8-4 win over Texas was Tampa Bay’s sixth win in its last seven games. The pitching matchup: David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA) will return to his old stomping grounds at Tropicana Field on Monday for the start of a four-game series between the Red Sox and the Rays, opposed by Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA). Price is 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in six starts (teams are 2-4) against the team that drafted him first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft. Price signed a huge deal with Boston prior to this season but despite pitching for the team leading all of MLB in runs scored (5.50 per), team BA (.285) and OPS (.819), Price has just 11 wins and more troubling is his 13-13 record in team starts, going minus-$841 vs. the moneyline. Snell has not completed six innings in any of his last four starts but has racked some impressive strikeout numbers with 26 in 17 1/3 innings over that span. The pick: The Red Sox own an awesome offense but Price just hasn’t “pulled his weight.” Not sure at all that he’ll rise to the occasion in a return trip to Tropicana Field, facing a Tampa Bay offense which has avergaed 7.9 RPG in winning six of seven. As for Snell, note that he’s allowed two ERs or less in his previous seven starting assignments. Taking the 1 1/2 runs is worth a 9* play on Tampa Bay. 

The set-up: The Washington Nationals cap a three-city road trip close to home, opening a four-game home-and-home series with the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The Nats just took three of four games in Atlanta, keeping plenty of distance between themselves and the rest of the NL East (Marlins are in second, 8 1/2 games back). Meanwhile, interleague rival Baltimore, is engaged in a much tighter race in the AL East. The Orioles have surprisingly dropped five of six to open their eight-game homestand, as the team’s pitching staff has surrendered an average of 8.3 RPG runs in those six contests. The slide has dropped Baltimore 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and leaves it just one game ahead of the Seattle Mariners for the second AL wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Adam Cole has replaced Stephen Strasburg for Washington. This play still stands. He will be opposed by Baltimore rookie Dylan Bundy (6-4, 3.36 ERA). Bundy began the season in the bullpen but has made seven consecutive starts, after 22 relief appearances. He lost his first game as a starter (July 17) but is 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA over his last six. The pick: The Orioles are 40-22 at home, with only the Cubs (45) owning more home wins. Baltimore’s plus-$1398 home moneyline mark is second to only KC (plus-$1983) but as noted, the Orioles are in a little bit of a funk these days. Bundy is getting his first taste of the Beltway Series and may have a tough time.  Make the Nats a top-rated 10* play.

The set-up: The New York Mets will attempt to earn a split of their four-game series at San Francisco, after winning 9-5 Saturday afternoon at AT&T Park. The Giants had won 10-7 and 8-1 the first two games but a three-HR outburst led the way to yesterday’s victory. Yoenis Cespedes, who returned from a 15-day stint on the disabled list, had two of Saturday’s HRs for the Mets, with the first traveling 457 feet (one foot shy of the being the longest hit at AT&T Park this season!). The Giants will probably go without their hottest hitter and one of their best base-stealers in Angel Pagan on Sunday. He experienced tightness in his right groin while chasing a fly ball in Saturday's game and had to be pulled in the fourth inning. The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 2.76 ERA) goes for the Mets and Jeff Samardzija (10-8, 4.24 ERA) for the Giants. With injuries and struggles by a number of New York’s highly-touted starting rotation being the norm in 2016, Syndergaard has assumed the role of ace for this year’s pitching staff. However, Syndergaard has faced the Giants twice and lost both games, allowing eight ERs in 11 2/3 innings and his 6.17 ERA is his highest among teams against which he's started at least twice.Samardzija has struggled even more against the Mets than Syndergaard has against Giants. He has faced New York nine times in his career, three times as a starter, and has come away with an 0-3 record and 8.72 ERA. The record is Samardzija's worst against all opponents and the ERA is his second-highest among clubs against which he has started two more times. The pick: Noting all of the above, Syndrgaard owns an outstanding 2.60 road ERA this season (as well as a solid 1.12 WHIP) and Samardzija is off back-to-back solid outings (2.31 ERA). After three straight “overs” in this series, tonight’s Sunday finale figures to be a much lower scoring game. the Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Cubs lost 7-6 (11 innings) on Friday to the Rockies but cruised to a 9-2 win on Saturday night at Coors Field. Chicago’s 78-44 record gives them five more wins than any other tem in MLB, as well as the largest lead of any division leader (13 games up on the St. Louis Cards). The 59-64 Rockies are nine games back in the NL West and 6 1/2 games out of the NL’s second wild card spot, with three teams in front of them. Coors Field used to be a feared venue but no longer. The Rockies are only 31-31 at their home field in 2016, after going 36-45 last season. The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (13-5, 2.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Cubs in this rubber match of this three-game series, opposed by Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa (7-7, 5.29 ERA). Hammel is part of an excellent Chicago rotation that also features Arrieta (15 wins), Lester (who matches Hammel’s 13 wins) and Hendricks (11 wins). Hammel comes into this contest with a streak of 22 scoreless innings, having gone 6-0 with a 0.95 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. Colorado’s De La Rosa will be a free agent after this season and almost all believe this will be his final season with the Rockies. He’s 52-19 with a 4.26 ERA in 102 games, including 95 starts, at Coors Field but his Coors Field ERA is 5.18 in 2016 over 11 appearances (eight starts / team is 3-5). The pick: De La Rosa is 3-0 with a 3.82 ERA in his seven career starts vs. the Cubs (team is 4-3) but hasn’t faced them since 2013. This just in; the Cubs are a very different team, these days! Hammel is 14-14 at Coors Field, which served as his home park from 2009-11, but he is in the midst of a “career year,” backed by a powerful offense that ranks third in both runs scored (5.14) and OPS (.779). Hammel has won all six of his starts since the All-Star break (0.95 ERA), while the Rockies have lost De La Rosa’s last three starts and five of the last six times he’s taken the mound (4.86 ERA). One-plus-one equals an 8* play on the Cubs.

The set-up: The Blue Jays and Indians play the rubber match of their three-games series on Sunday afternoon, after splitting a pair of one-run contests (Indians won 3-2 on Friday and the Jays 6-5 on Saturday). The 70-51 Indians and 70-53 Blue Jays both lead their respective divisions but while Cleveland owns a seven-game lead in the AL Central, Toronto leads the AL East by just a half-game over the Red Sox and 2 1/2 over the Orioles. Sunday's game will be the finale of Cleveland's longest homestand of the season, an 11-game stretch in which the Indians have so far gone 7-3 against against the Angels, Red Sox, White Sox and Blue Jays. Cleveland is 38-23 on the season at Progressive Field, averaging 5.82 RPG. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.63 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto and Corey Kluber (13-8, 3.15 ERA) for Cleveland. Stroman enters this contest 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in his last eight starts (team is a modest 4-4), after allowing one ER on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-2 triumph over Houston last Sunday. Stroman’s only made two career appearances vs. the Indians, the most recent being that epic 19-inning game won by the Indians 2-1 back on July 1. Stroman pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing one run on five hits with six strikeouts and one walk in that one. Kluber comes into Sunday's start on quite a roll, having not lost a game since July 3. He may want to forget that one, which was a 17-1 loss to Toronto in which he gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. The pick: That effort vs. Toronto makes Kluber 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA in four starts versus the Blue Jays but since that July 3 outing, he’s 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA in seven starts (team did lose both of his no decisions). The above all being noted, Kluber is coming down the stretch of a terrific “bounce-back” year, after he fell from winning the Cy Young award in 2014 to going 9-16 in 2015 with the worst moneyline mark (11-21, minus-$1747) among all starters. In Kluber we will trust, making the Indians an 8* play.

The set-up: The White Sox came out of the gate strong in 2016, going 23-10 through games played by May 9. However, the team has stumbled to a 34-54 (.386) record since then and Chicago now sits 13 1/2 games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, as well as 10 games back (with five teams ahead of them) in the wild card race. The White Sox have now lost 14 of their last 21 games, after a 9-0 blowout defeat in Friday's series opener against Oakland, which at 53-69 (.434), is hardly a quality opponent. In fact, Oakland’s a 9-0 victory snapped a five-game losing streak and ‘beating up’ on “Big Games James” Shields, is not anything new. Shields is now 3-8 (7.62 ERA) with the White Sox and a combined 5-15 (5.98 ERA) with Chicago and San Diego in 2016! The pitching matchup: Ross Detwiler (1-1, 4.15 ERA) takes the mound for Oakland, opposed by Chicago’s Chris Sale (14-6, 3.30 ERA). Detwiler is a 30-year-old journeyman who began the season with Cleveland Indians before he was designated for assignment. He was signed by Oakland and is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts. Detwiler has faced the White Sox only twice in his nine-year career, both in relief. As for Sale, he opened the season 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA but it’s hardly been a smooth ride, since. He was the first pitcher to reach 14 wins in MLB but he’s stuck on that number, going 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA in his past six starts (team is 1-5). The pick: Sale’s ERA has risen almost two full runs since his 9-0 start and with just five wins (six losses) over his last 14 starts (team is 6-8), it’s fair to wonder about just how effective Sale will be down the stretch. However, as manager Robin Ventura noted, "Since he's been starting, this is the best and as strong as he's been later in the season than I've seen him any time. There hasn't been that stretch where, in the past few years, he has definitely needed time off or the velocity has really tailed off." Opposed by journeyman like Detwiler, seems to be “just what the doctor ordered” for Sale. The price is steep, so it's a 6* play on Chicago.

The set-up: The Astros and Orioles have traded blowout victories to open this four games series, with Baltimore wining 13-5 on Thursday and Houston returning the favor Friday night, 15-8. The Orioles lead all of MLB with 188 HRs and socked six in Thursday’s win. However, five more last night was not enough to earn them a victory, as Baltimore’s pitching staff could not hold an early four-run lead, succumbing to Houston’s 18 hits, with the Astros scoring in seven of the game’s nine innings. The 67-54 Orioles are 1 1/2 back in the AL East but do own the AL’s second wild card spot, two games clear of Seattle and 3 1/2 up on Detroit. The Astros are ‘toast’ in the AL West and also have three teams between them and the Orioles in the wild card chase, as well as being 5 1/2 games back. The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (8-6, 4.66 ERA) takes the mound for Houston, while the Orioles counter with Chris Tillman (15-4, 3.46 ERA). The Astros have lost four of Fiers last six starts and now sit 12-10 (plus-$27) in all of his 2016 starts. Facing a home run hitting team like Baltimore is hardly god news, Fiers has allowed 22 HRs in his 23 appearances (22 starts) this season. It’s also troubling that Fiers’ road ERA of 6.27 is almost 3 1/2 runs higher than his home ERA (3.36) plus his WHIP (1.61) and .313 batting average against speak volumes as to his road woes. Tillman takes the mound as MLB’s biggest “money-earner” among starting pitchers, as Baltimore is 20-5 in his starts, plus-$1553. Tillman had some shoulder discomfort and that was reason enough for the Orioles to keep him from making his scheduled start on Wednesday. However, he reported no issues throwing off flat ground the following day and is ready to go for Saturday. The pick: Baltimore is 40-20 at home, giving them more home wins that any team other than the Cubs (45-19) and the team's home moneyline mark of plus-$1634 ranks second to only that of the KC Royals (plus-$1783). Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 12-1 in Tillman’s 13 home starts in 2016 and why shouldn’t Baltimore be an 8* play?

The set-up: The 73-50 Texas Rangers continue their three-game series at the 56-70 Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, after taking the opener 6-2 on Friday night. Texas leads the AL West by seven games and is MLB’s top moneyline team (plus-$2745), which is $1623 higher than MLB’s second-best money earners, the Detroit Tigers. In comparison, the Rays own a better record than only the Minnesota Twins in the AL and own MLB’s worst money line mark (ranking 30 of 30 teams), at minus-$2625. Is this a “fair fight?” The pitching matchup: A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA) of Texas squares off with Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA) of Tampa Bay. Griffin has seen his effectiveness drop consistently as the season has progressed. He opened the season with four quality starts in his first five appearances but he hasn’t had a single quality start in any of his last 11. His ERA was 2.93 ERA at the end of June but his July ERA jumped to 5.84 ERA and it has ballooned to 7.41 ERA in August starts. Griffin’s last two outings have been awful, allowing 11 ERs on 18 hits over just 11 1/3 innings (8.74 ERA). While Griffin began this season strong, Odorizzi was the “poster boy” of frustration, leading the majors in no-decisions with only three wins in 19 starts (had 11 no-decisions in that strtetch). He was mentioned often as a target at the deadline but stayed as Tampa Bay dealt Matt Moore to the Giants instead. However, Odorizzi has been one of the best pitchers in the American League since the All-Star break. He’s 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA (an AL-best for a pitcher with 25 or more innings), posting a 33-7 KW ratio. The Rays are 4-2 in his six post-break starts and he’s led the way in helping the Rays play .500 baseball since the break. Griffin opened the 2016 with a 7-3 win on April 8, his first victory in more than two years after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Yes, the Rangers are 11-5 in his 16 starts but as noted, he’s not been the same pitcher since the beginning of July. Odorizzi over Griffin makes the Rays a 10* play.

The set-up: Most felt that the Yankees were “throwing in the towel” for the 2016 season with trade deadline deals in which they  moved relievers Chapman and Miller, plus did the same with the team’s best offensive ‘weapon,’ Carlos Beltran. New York’s fading playoff hopes took a hit to begin this week when the Yanks lost two of three at home to the Blue Jays and the Yankees will surely need to take this weekend three-game series (if not make it a sweep) against the AL West cellar-dwelling Angels (51-70), in New York’s lone visit to Anaheim in 2016. LA’s season is hopelessly lost and trying to escape the AL West basement plus playing the role of spoilers are all that seems left for this team this season. The pitching matchup: Masahiro Tanaka (9-4, 3.40 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees with Jered Weaver (8-10, 5.32 ERA) opposing him for the Angels. Tanaka owns a modest nine wins but he’s been ‘sneaky good’ to sports bettors, with New York going 17-7 in his 24 previous starts. His moneyline mark of plus-$984 ranks 10th-best among all starters. The 33-year-old Weaver limps in 0-3 over his last five starts (team is 2-3), having allowed at least five runs in each of his losing decisions. The pick: Tanka over Weaver seems like a “no-brainer” at first blush but a closer look reveals that Tanaka has allowed 18 runs (13 earned) on 25 hits over 16 innings of his last three road starts (that’s a a 7.31 ERA!). Meanwhile, Weaver owns a 2.41 ERA over his last three home starts, with the Angels winning each time. LA is a ‘live dog’ in this one. Top-rated 10* on the Angels.

The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game series in Philadelphia against the Phillies on Friday, currently holding down the NL’s second wild card spot (Pirates are one game behind and the Marlins 2 1/2 games back). The 57-65 Phillies are out of postseason consideration at eight games back but have won five of their last seven, plus have been competitive all season long, ranking 4th in the moneyline standings at plus-$748. In contrast, the 64-56 Cards are minus-$83 vs. the moneyline. The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (9-7, 4.72 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards, opposed by Philly’s Adam Morgan (1-7, 6.62 ERA). Wainwright is winless in his last five outings plus comes off the shortest start of his career in his last time out, allowing seven runs on six hits and three walks in just two innings of a 13-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs.  Philadelphia’s Morgan knows all about struggling. He’s 1-7 with a 6.62 ERA in his second MLB season, with the Phillies going 3-10 in all of his starts (minus-$767). He hasn't won since beating the Braves for his lone victory of 2016 back on May 10. Morgan has gone 0-7 with a 7.46 ERA over 12 starts (team is 2-10), a drought interrupted by a stint at Triple-A. He went 5-0 at Lehigh Valley, which is why he was recalled in mid-August. He was forced to leave his start last Sunday against Colorado after three innings when he was hit on the elbow by a line drive off the bat of Nick Hundley. Morgan reported no ill effects and gets the call here. Wainwright is 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 career outings against Phillies, including 11 starts (team is 7-4). The Cards are a MLB-best 36-23 on the road overall, along with owning the top road moneyline mark at plus-$1676. The Cards are a 10* play. 

The set-up: Many opined that Pittsburgh’s trade deadline moves indicated that the team believed its playoff hopes were slim but on the field, the Pirates are making a strong run at a fourth straight appearance in the NL’s wild card game (Pirates have lost that game, each of the last three seasons). Pittsburgh just completed a 5-1 West Coast road trip and returned home (had an off day on Thursday) to open a six-game homestand which begins Friday night against the Marlins. The Pirates' 28-17 record is the best in baseball since June 24 and they sit one game behind St. Louis for the second wild-card spot. The 62-59 Marlins are 1 1/2 games behind the Pirates in that same wild card chase after they dropped a 5-4 decision at Cincinnati on Thursday night. The pitching matchup: Tom Koehler (9-8, 3.86 ERA) will take the mound for the Marlins with Gerrit Cole (7-8, 3.25 ERA) getting the start for Pittsburgh. Koehler has been the Marlins' best starter of late, going 3-0 with a 1.36 ERA over his last five outings (Miami is). However, it has to worrisome to Miami that he’s 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates. Cole is 0-2 and has failed to get through the sixth inning in each of his past two starts, allowing nine ERs on 15 hits for an 8.01 ERA. The better news for Pittsburgh is that Cole owns a 2.94 ERA in nine home starts in 2016. The pick: Miami had hoped to gain some ground (and momentum) with a recently completed 10-game stretch against the struggling Giants plus non-contending teams like the White Sox and Reds, but the Marlins went just 3-7 in that span. They now head to Pittsburgh’s PNC park for a three-game weekend series, knowing that they are on a 16-31 run at that venue. The Pirates enter tonight’s contest having won four consecutive series and former MVP Andrew McCutcheon is batting .317 in August! The Pirates are an 8* play.

The set-up: The 70-49 Washington Nationals lead the NL East by 8 1/2 games and own a better record than any NL team not named the Chicago Cubs. They open a four-game series Thursday night in Atlanta to face the Braves, who own a MLB-worst 44-76 record. The Nats are coming off losing two of three at Colorado to open the week, so welcome the chance to take on Atlanta, a team they’ve been eight of nine times in 2016. The pitching matchup: Two rookies will take the mound, Reynaldo Lopez (1-1, 5.74 ERA) for Washington and Rob Whalen (1-1, 7.31 ERA) for Atlanta. Lopez earned his first major-league victory Friday against Atlanta in Washington, holding the Braves to one run on five hits over seven strong innings. He features a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding curveball, ranking as Washington’s third-best prospect by MLB.com (he had struck out 122 Ks in 102 1/3 innings across 18 minor-league starts this season). Whalen makes his fourth major-league start and his second in a row against Lopez and the Nationals, hoping for better results after getting roughed up for six runs on six hits in five innings to take his first big-league defeat. Whalen posted a 1.93 ERA in three starts at Triple-A, after going 7-5 in 18 starts at Double-A in 2016. However, he owns a 7.31 ERA in three major league starts, so far. The pick: Washington really needs a good effort from Lopez, as the team’s bullpen worked 16 1/3 innings in three games at Coors Field. His effort vs. the Braves in Washington last Friday is a good indication he’ll do just that and Atlanta's woeful 18-41 home record speaks for itself. 10* play on Washington.