The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games.

Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th.

Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday.  9.0*!

The high-flying 9-1 Cardinals crushed the Cubs last night. They have fine starting pitching and the hottest offense in the league. Mikolas starts for St. Louis today. He has rebounded well after a 10 run debacle vs the Rockies in Denver, tossing a pair of 8 inning starts and giving up just 3 runs total. He faced the Cubs in August, allowing 3 runs in 6+ innings.

The 6-4 Cubs appear to be short on starters and have brought up Luke Farrell for today’s start. Farrell has some previous experience in the Bigs, but has spent the year in Triple A where his numbers were not overpowering. He hasn’t been a starter this year so don’t expect a lengthy outing.

The Cubs have been up and down in offense this season. At the moment, they are down at just .192/.584 OPS in the last week. Comparing relief pitching, the Cubs’ pen has scrambled lately to an ERA of over 6.00. The Cardinals, you guessed it, are getting fine relief pitching on top of everything else.

All roads lead to a Cardinals’ victory. I am taking them on the run line at -1 ½.  9*!

The 8-2 Braves have faced tough pitching and are still coming out on the winning side lately. The Braves are tough on the road, 9-3 as a road favorite, 14-7 in August etc., etc. They are also hitting the ball hard at the moment. Kyle Wright starts on Wednesday. Wright has been very steady lately. Other than a 4 HR, 6 run oddball start against the Mets, he hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in 6 starts, lasting 6 or 7 innings.

The 2-8 Pirates are just 7-13 in August and well down the list at 24th as far as offense goes. Keller starts for the Pirates, and his last three appearances have gone in the wrong direction, culminating in a 2inning 4 run start. Keller has shown well at times this season, but struggles against good offensive teams.

The Pirates have lost a pair against the Braves, and are getting half the runs/9 innings over the last two weeks. Add to that a bullpen that has a 5.11 ERA over the same period and a Braves win looks promising. The Braves are a large favorite, but a safe bet on the run line. Take the Braves at -1 ½.

The Red Sox surely remember being swept by the Blue Jays here at Fenway Park last month. If you recall, that series began with a humiliating 28-5 defeat for the home team. It was the most runs surrendered in a game by a Red Sox team - ever. It was also a Blue Jays’ franchise record for runs scored.

That humiliation occurred in the first game after the All Star Break. Boston has now fallen six games back of the Wild Card, but is 6-4 in its last 10 games. Toronto is in a virtual three-way tie for the three WC spots with Seattle and Tampa Bay. They are just 5-5 L10 games despite taking three of four at Yankee Stadium over the weekend.

Boston was going to start Nathan Eovaldi tonight, but he’s dealing with a sore muscle. Taking his spot in the rotation will be Josh Winckowski and that’s okay by me. Winckowski has gone at least five innings in each of his last four starts. Toronto’s offense has also cooled off over the last week or so.

Ross Stripling is the starter for the Blue Jays Tuesday. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Orioles last Wednesday. But I think Stripling is due to cool off. Over his last seven starts, he’s failed to make it through five innings three different times. Last time out marked just the fourth time all year Stripling has gone longer than five innings.

At plus money, playing at home with revenge, I like the Red Sox in this situation. They are due to beat the Blue Jays here at Fenway. Toronto is -19.0 units as a favorite. 10* 

Veteran Cubs lefty Drew Smyly has pitched well in August, with a pair of shutouts and another 2 run outing. While that 1.06 ERA for the month looks great, he has struggled vs good-hitting teams in the past, and the Cardinals are definitely on a tear offensively of late.

Jordan Montgomery starts for the Cards on Monday. He appears to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder since being traded, and has given up just 1 run in his last 3 games. Impressed by Smyly’s ERA? How about Montgomery’s; 0.54 over his last 7 starts!

The Cardinals are very much tops of the bops at the moment, at .352/1.003 over the last torrid week. The Cubs have been better than average, but pale in comparison at .218/.700. The Cubs are sub.500 at home and while the starting pitching has been very good, the bullpen has struggled, Sunday’s game being a case in point. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very sharp.

The Cardinals are on a serious roll and it will take more than Smyly and the Cubs’ bats to slow them down, road or no. Take St. Louis to win outright.

The Rangers have taken two straight on the road from the Twins, but Monday’s game might be a little tougher, as they run out rookie right hander Cole Ragans. Ragans started his career in the Bigs with a 5 inning shutout, but has since given up 8 runs over 9+ innings in two starts.

The Twins lost ground this weekend in pursuit of a wild card spot and, needing a win on Monday, look to Sonny Gray to right the ship. Gray was ridden hard by the Rangers in July, but has been much better lately, giving up just 5 runs in 4 starts.

The Twins are very good as a home favorite and tough on left handers this season. The Rangers are not especially good on the road or against winning teams, so their two wins are a bit of a surprise. I expect Gray to out-duel Ragans on Monday. Both bullpens have been ok lately, although the Twins’ relievers failed the team on Sunday. Look for a better game all around for the Twins. Take them on the run line on Monday at -1 1/2.  9*!

The Cubs have been very tough on the Brewers lately, winning on Friday and Saturday, and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings. The Cubs bats have surged lately all the way to third in the league with an OPS of .770. The Brewers have reverted to last year’s number on offense at .182, .607 OPS over the last two weeks. While the Cubs have won 5 straight, and 8 of 10, they face a tough customer in Brandon Woodruff on Sunday. Woodruff is slightly more fallible than normal with an ERA of 3.44 in August. Opposing batters are hitting .243 against him this month and he has given up a pair of home runs in each of his last two starts. Woodruff is not at his best when pitching on the road.

He faces the Cubs’ left-hander Justin Steele, who has a rock solid ERA of 1.66 in his last 7 games with a pair of shut-outs in his last 3 starts. He faced the Brewers in July, allowing just 1 run in 6+ innings, and is much better at home.

The Brewers are a solid favorite today, based solely on Woodruff’s reputation. I am not so sure of that outcome. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid, possibly not quite on par with the Brewers’ but there is no comparison on offense, and Steele has been at least as good as Woodruff lately. Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 ½, although an outright win would not surprise me.

The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander.

The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four.

The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today.

The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance.

Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*!

The Cardinals have won 4 straight at home, and have a great 1-2 punch at the moment. They have the best offense in the league over the last two weeks, and an .861 OPS at the moment. They are also the toughest team against left handers for the season, and face D-backs’ rookie lefty Tommy Henry on Friday. Henry is just three games into his career, with one very good start and two of the fair to good variety. He gave up 3 runs in 5+ innings in Colorado in his last start. Henry is not without talent but faces a tough opponent in the Cards.

The Cardinals start Mikolas (9-9,3.44) on Friday. Mikolas was embarrassed by Colorado, allowing 10 runs over 2.2 innings, but bounced back with an 8 inning 2 run effort in his last start. He has had a couple of very poor starts and they are usually on the road. His road ERA is 2 runs higher than at home.

The Cardinals are below .500 on the road, and just 8-6 as a road favorite. They have split their games with Arizona this year. The Diamondbacks come off an impressive 4 -3 road trip vs. the Giants and Rockies, and are above .500 at home. They have had very good relief pitching of late; better than the Cardinals, and are getting better than average hitting as well. Henry looked very sharp in his last two starts, and Mikolas’ potential road struggles are a concern. I am looking for the Diamondbacks to surprise the Cardinals, and to win or to stay close on Friday. Take Arizona on the run line at + 1 ½.  9*

The Nationals, now 4-6 were something of a surprise winner vs Darvish and the Padres last night, but odds are it won’t happen twice in a row. The Padres usually win when Snell is pitching these days. Snell has found his form and is finally giving the Padres what they are paying him for. The lefty is 5-1, 2.11 in his last 7 starts, and shut out the Nationals over 6 innings with 10 strikeouts in his last start.

He faces right-hander Espino for the Nationals. He was roughed up by the Padres in his last outing. 2 of 3 August starts have been poor, resulting in an ERA of over six for the month. Most starts are of 5 innings or less lately.

The Nationals really struggle vs left-handed pitching over both the long and short term. They are poor on the road, and just 5 and 12 in August. The Padres are definitely under achieving of late, but are better on offense than Washington, especially vs right-handers. Both bullpens have been effective lately, but the Padres’ has been lightly used and are throwing bb’s, with an ERA of just 0.63 in their last five games. The highly- favored Padres will bounce back today. Take them on the run line at -1 ½.

Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games.  Webb is particularly sharp at home.

The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today.

The Rockies have lost 4 straight, including 2 against the home team Cardinals. Colorado took 2 of 3 in their recent home series vs St. Louis, so look for a little extra motivation from the Cards at home. Colorado’s offense has dropped lately, managing just .159 against right handers in their last five games. The Rockies’ are, of course, a much tamer beast in batting when away from Coors Field, just 26th in the league on the road.

Right hander Senzatela starts for the Rockies. He has been better but not great in August with 8 runs over 19 innings. He is not a strikeout pitcher, and opposing batters, including the Cardinals have hit him hard this season, although that average has dropped to .275 this month. Senzatela has been considerably worse on the road. Of note, the Cards’ Goldsmith has owned Senzatela when they’ve met in the past.

The 7-3 Cardinals start their ageless veteran, right hander Adam Wainwright. Usually very consistent, Wainwright was roughed up badly by the Yankees two starts ago, then pitched a 1 run, complete game in his last appearance. Overall this year he has been as usual, just fine. He is generally more effective at home.

The Cardinals are hitting very well at the moment, and are very good as a home favorite. The Rockies are just 6-19 as a road underdog. The Cards will likely give Senzatela a tougher time than his last opponents. The Cardinals have the much superior pen as well. Take the wildcard-bound Cardinals to win at home on Thursday. The odds are very much in their favor, but they should be good for the extra runs.

Now just 4-6 L10 games, I think San Diego avoids getting swept here. Unlike the first two games of the series, the pitching matchup is not in Miami’s favor today. 

While new addition Josh Bell has failed to produce thus far for the Padres, I see the team putting a decent number on the board in this matchup. After a strong start to the year for the Marlins, Pablo Lopez has really struggled. He has a 4.99 ERA in his last 13 starts and since the All-Star Break, it’s a 6.39 ERA in five starts. 

Lopez did have a strong outing against San Diego the last time he faced them. But that was back in May when he tossed eight shutout frames.

Miami is also 4-6 over its last 10 games and this marks the first time since the All-Star Break that they have won back to back games. They have been in a major slump at the plate as the last game where they scored more than four runs took place on 7/28. The Marlins only had six hits yesterday, four fewer than the Padres.

Mike Clevinger should get the job done for the road team today. The Padres are 9-5 in Clevinger’s 14 starts, which includes 6-2 on the road where his WHIP is a very solid 1.088.

The Phillies are now 7-3 L10 games after winning twice here in Cincinnati. They go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon with Ranger Suarez starting. Over Suarez’s previous five starts, the Phillies have gone 5-0. Suarez has given up just seven runs in that stretch and three of those were unearned.

The Reds, who have been out of contention all year, are 3-7 L10 games and have lost seven of the last eight. They turn to Nick Lodolo Wednesday in hopes of avoiding the sweep. But Lodolo isn’t a good candidate to play “stopper” considering he has a 4.72 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. In his last two starts, Lodolo has not made it out of the fifth inning. 

The Phillies have been a hot team for quite some time, winning two-thirds of their games since June 1st (44-22). Even without Bryce Harper, they’ve been hitting well. The lineup pounded out 18 hits in yesterday’s ballgame. At the same time, the pitching staff has allowed more than four runs only one time in the previous nine games.

Yesterday was the eighth time in the last nine games where the Reds scored four runs or less. Expect the Phillies to finish off the sweep. 9* 

The 6-4 Diamondbacks lost last night but have shown well lately. Their offense is on an upward track, just inching into the top ten over the last two weeks. They have hit well vs right-handers lately. They haven’t had much success in SF, but tonight could be the night. Merrill Kelley starts for Arizona. He struggled (for him) in his last start, allowing 3 runs in 5 innings, but is usually much better that that. He has faced the Giants three times lately, limiting them to 4 runs over 21+ innings. Kelley has been exceptional on the road this season.

The Giants have won 4 straight at home, but that includes 3 close games vs the lowly Pirates. They have been hitting well lately, but not against Kelley. Junis the “sometimes starter” pitches for the Giants. He has had some good outings this year, but most are short, and the last few were poor. He held the D-backs to a single run over 4 innings the last time he faced them. Opposing batters have put a charge into the ball against him in August.

I am on the underdog D-backs today. Kelley is the better starter and will pitch deeper into the game. The D-backs are getting fine relief pitching at the moment, better than the Giants. Look for Arizona to steal this one on the road.

At 6-4, the Cubs are showing improvement, although they did lose a close game to the home team Nationals on Monday. They are hitting well of late especially vs left-handers. The Cubs face a very unsuccessful lefty in Patrick Corbin on Tuesday. Corbin, now 4-14, hasn’t had a quality start in a month at least and his ERA has sky rocketed lately. While he usually pitches for length if nothing else, he has been ousted early in his last three starts. Unfortunately the Nationals’ relievers are also poor, with an ERA of 5.00 in their last 5 games, and much worse over the longer term.

The Cubs have been getting decent pitching from all corners. Left-hander Justin Steele is 2-2, 1.95 in his last 7 starts and held the Nationals to 2 runs over 6 innings just last week. He has 16 strikeouts in his last 10+ innings pitched.

The Nat’s, now 3-7, are very poor as a home underdog, and 11-27 vs left handed pitching. This game is the Cubs’ for the taking, and a fine opportunity to pile up the runs early. Look for Steele and Chicago to take Game Two on the road. 9*!

To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time.

He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them.

The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total.  9*.

Rumors of the Royals’ demise after the trade deadline may have been exaggerated as they’ve won 6 of 10. Off a win vs the Dodgers they now go on the road vs the Twins. Some of the Royals’ young pitchers are starting to find their form including Kris Bubic. The left hander is pitching much better than his season’s ERA lately, giving up 1,2, and 3 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. His ERA is under 3.00 for his last 7 starts.

The Twins are underachieving at the moments and have won just 1 in 7 games. They are not getting much length or success from their starters. Joe Ryan the young phenom, has faltered lately, with 2 of his last 3 starts in the poor category. He has pitched close to a hundred innings to date, so fatigue may be an issue. His starts have been shorter and his ERA has climbed to over 5.00 in the last 7 games.

The Royals are outhitting the Twins at the moment both for average and power. Neither bullpen has been very effective. The Twins have also been particularly ineffective vs. left handed hitching. The Royals aren’t generally a very good team on the road, but are playing with no real expectations of them at the moment. The Twins are falling out of a wild card spot with their poor play lately. The Twins are a big favorite today, but I think the Royals will keep this game close. Take the Royals on the run line, at +1 ½.

The Braves are on the road vs the Marlins on Sunday. Atlanta has won 5 straight, 3 of them against the Marlins. Atlanta is a very good hitting team with a solid road record, but today’s starter is a question mark. Elder has just 1 start since April and it didn’t go well, allowing 3 runs over 2.1 innings against the Mets. He didn’t hang around long last time and that will likely be the case today, as the Braves pen is pitching very well at the moment. Elder may have better luck vs the Marlins because the Marlins just plain can’t hit. They are 2-8 and haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their last 10 games.

The Marlins start left handed pitcher Garrett today. He has been reasonably effective in his last 7 starts with a 3.35 ERA. He does not last longer than about 5 innings. He has had some very strong outings with high strikeouts, but doesn’t fare as well against top hitting teams. He gave up 4 runs over 4+ innings in his last start vs. the Phillies.

The Braves are a very good team, especially vs. left handed pitching. The Marlins are actually worse on the road, and their bullpen has not been sharp. Elder is not a good bet, even against the poor hitting Marlins, but the Braves will have their opportunities against Garrett and the Miami pen. Atlanta may be working from behind early, but I expect the Braves bats to wear down the Marlins today. Braves to win outright.

The Padres took a step back on Saturday, losing against the lowly Nationals. They’ll send out another veteran, lefty Blake Snell on Sunday. Snell seems trustworthy these days, pitching much better since the beginning of June, with just poor outing. He has given up very few runs with a five inning start average. Strike outs are up, and walks are down.

The Nationals are just 2-8, with trouble on the pitching side. Espino, a converted reliever had a solid start against the Cubs last time out, but has struggled against the better teams.

It is hard to know if the Padres are a “better” team these day, although they are hitting right handers very well lately. They are still underachieving in spite of big moves at the deadline. The Nationals are a team they need to beat to keep any wild card hopes alive. The Padres’ starter is better, their pen, other than last night, is arguably better and the offense did break out in the previous few games. Take the Padres to win on the road on Sunday. San Diego  -1 1/2.  9*.

With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits.

At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings.

Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday.

Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under.  9*.

After being swept by the Dodgers, the Padre’s offense broke out against the Giants in their last 2 games, scoring 20 runs. The Padres have been very tough on right handers lately, and face another one today in the Nationals’ Sanchez. Washington’s pitching, starting and relief, is still in a shambles. Sanchez (0-5, 7.65) gives the Nat’s 4 or 5 innings a start, but opposing batters are hitting over .300 against him. While he hasn’t faced the Padres this year, Machado has owned Sanchez in past meetings.

The Padres start Yu Darvish (10-5, 3.28) Darvish was in tough against the Dodgers, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start. We are seeing a rejuvenated Darvish this year, with 3 or less runs allowed in 6 straight starts and some solid length as well.

With little support for Sanchez from the pen, the Padres have an opportunity to extend their string of high run totals. The 2-8 Nationals have not been hitting right handed pitching well at all lately, and on the road against Darvish, it is more a question of how much will they lose by. Take the Padres on the run line at -1 ½.

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Yankees in spite of weak hitting. Their pitching, including today’s starter and the bullpen, has been excellent, but those bats really need to wake up. They have had great success vs the Rangers in Texas lately. Prized rookie righty George Kirby has really found his form for the Mariners. He was solid vs the Rangers just a couple of starts ago and pitched very well in his last start against the Angels. Don’t look for great length; the Mariners will be watching his pitch count.

The Rangers are just 3-7 lately and while their offense has been OK, starting pitching has been an issue. It appears to be a bullpen day for the Rangers, and while the pen has been average at least, we have seen short outings from the starters lately, and an over-usage of the relievers.

 Kirby and the Mariners likely won’t likely give up many runs today, and it could be a very good opportunity for those M’s to score some runs. Look for continued success for Seattle and another win on the road.

The Guardians swept the Tigers and now face a critical road series against the Blue Jays. Right hander Quantrill starts for the Guardians. Other than a fine last start, he has been up and down in August with a 4.23 ERA. He has been considerably poorer on the road.

It has not been a banner year for the Jays’ right hander Berrios. He was hit hard by his old team last time out, but has shown improvement in his last 7 starts with a 3.86 ERA. He is very much better at home (6-0, 3.23) compared to away (2-4, 7.50)

The Jays have had a couple of days off after a pair of losses to the Orioles. They cannot afford any more poor play vs wild card opponents. The offense was flying just a couple of weeks ago. The Jays are very streaky but there are signs of improvement from both Guererro and Bichette. While the Guardians have the better bullpen, the 2 days rest can’t hurt the rather short-staffed Blue Jays’ pen.

This should be a close match-up, but Berrioz’ home success and Quantrill’s road woes could decide it. I am on the Jays on Friday.

The Diamondbacks have won 5 of 7 including 2 at home to the Pirates. They are good as a home favorite and have been hitting better than average, just sneaking in the top 10 over the last week. They have been getting some long appearances from their starters, which helps a not always impressive bullpen. Merrill Kelly, Thursdays starter, is as hot as anyone at the moment with an ERA of 1.49 over his last 7 games, and great length in his appearances. He was effective against the Pirates the last time he faced them. The D-backs have wasted two very fine outings of his, and will likely be extra-motivated on Thursday.

The Pirates, after a surprise sweep of the Brewers are back to their usual at 1-4. They are not a very good road team and haven’t won in Arizona in 6 attempts. Brubaker starts for the Pirates. After a couple of quality starts, Brubaker dropped the ball in his last 2 appearances. He gives up too many hits; 20 over 8 plus innings. The Diamondbacks roughed him up to the tune of 5 runs and 3 home runs over 4 innings.

The Pirates are hitting weakly at the moment, flirting with a sub .600 OPS. All signs point to a D-backs victory. Arizona has had Brubaker's number. Kelly is due to be rewarded by the Pirates. Look for a third straight victory for the Diamondbacks .  Take Arizona on the run line at - 1 1/2. 9*.

The Marilins have a very fine young starter on the mound on Thursday, but haven’t scored enough runs in any of their latest games to support anyone. They are averaging a minuscule 1.6 runs per game L10. They’ve lost 2 straight to the high-flying Phillies, and have only won 2 of their last 10 games. There is no doubt that Cabrera is an up and comer for the Marlin’s pitching rotation, but after just returning from the IL he won’t pitch more than five or so innings.

The Phillies’ bats are red hot at the moment. They even got to Alcantara in the 8th inning on Wednesday, have a team OPS of over 1.0, and 16 home runs in the last week. Thursday’s starter Kyle Gibson has not been too shabby lately either, flirting with a no hitter into the 7th inning, and giving up just 3 runs over 14 innings in his last 2 starts. The Phillies are getting fine support from their relievers at the moment if Gibson runs into trouble.

The Phillies appear to be playoff bound, and have great momentum. Not so, the Marlins. I am wagering on the Phillies to win on Thursday.  10*.

The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting.

He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching.

The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under.

The Nationals beat the Cubs on Tuesday, winning for the first time in 7 games. The five runs they agave up was also their lowest total against, in 7 games. Their pitching has been the worst in the league for 2 weeks running. They send out right hander Josiah Gray, who was terrific through June but has stumbled badly since, and seen his ERA soar. He allowed 6 runs in 4 innings in his last start with 4 HR.

The Cubs have been very successful at limiting runs lately but struggle to score more than a handful. They have managed to win 3 of 5 on the backs of their pitching, and have scored 11 runs in their two games vs. the Nats, an improvement of late. Left hander Justin Steele has been very sharp lately, with a 2.70 ERA in his last 7 games. He has given up just 1 run in his last 3 appearances but seldom lasts past the 5th inning. Tuesday notwithstanding, the Cubs bullpen has impressed.

Prior to the Nationals series, the Cubs have faced very stiff pitching, and we are seeing an uptick in their offense in their last two games. Gray’s issues seem serious rather than a one-off. Steele has been consistent and very good. Look for the Cubs to bounce back at home and beat up on the Nationals on Wednesday.  A win is very likely but I am not comfortable with them on the run line.

The Braves are 5-5 L10 games, but the big story is that for the first time all season they’ve lost three in a row. They had previously been 11-0 off two straight losses and 31-11 off a loss of any kind. This was before going down Sunday, 5-2 to the Mets.

It just wasn’t the Braves' weekend as they lost four of five to the first place Mets. This leaves them seven games back in the NL East, so time to start thinking about the Wild Card. Tuesday, the Braves roll into Boston to face a Red Sox team that is 4-6 L10 and has surprisingly struggled at Fenway Park.

Over the weekend, the Red Sox lost three of four games at Kansas City. They are also a game below .500 (for the year) at home. A last place finish in the AL East seems to be in the cards.

Charlie Morton is winless over his last four starts for Atlanta. But in two of those starts, he didn’t give up any runs. The same holds true for three of his last six starts and four of his last nine. Over their last seven games, Boston is batting .223 and averaging 3.6 runs.

Rich Hill has been a .500 (ish) pitcher for Boston, but is facing a lineup that’s 25-12 vs. lefties. Hill hasn’t been going very deep into games and in the last two starts, he’s given up seven runs in 7.6 innings. His last win came on June 26th. The Red Sox are 12-25 in their L37 games. 9*

The Blue Jays outhit the Orioles Monday, 12-9. But of course that does not win you the ballgame. Four of the Orioles' nine hits were homers and thus they finished ahead in runs scored, 7-4. It simply continues to be a remarkable ride for the team from Camden Yards. They are five games over .500, just a game out of Wild Card position and have won six of seven overall.

Baltimore clearly is no longer a pushover, the team that lost 108+ games in the last three non-COVID shortened seasons. But I don’t like today’s starting pitching matchup from their perspective.

Alek Manoah has a 2.45 ERA and 0.992 WHIP for Toronto. He’s 12-5 and the team is 13-8 in his 21 starts. Manoah tossed six scoreless innings of one-hit ball when he faced the Orioles back on June 13th. He is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four career starts against them.

 Toronto may be only 5-5 over its last 10 games. But they are still three games ahead of Baltimore, have the starting pitching edge and the higher scoring offense. They’re also 30-18 off a loss this season.

For Baltimore, Kyle Bradish has a 6.55 ERA and 1.651 WHIP. The numbers are even worse at home. Despite having made 12 starts, Bradish has just one win in 2022. He faced Manoah back on 6/13, gave up five runs in 4 ⅓ innings and the Orioles lost 11-1. 10* 

The Padres and the Giants, both swept away by the Dodgers in recent series, now face each other in San Diego. The Giants, a sub .500 team on the road will start left-hander Alex Wood on Monday. Wood was hit very hard by the Dodgers in his last start, but was lights out in July with a 1.65 ERA over five appearances. He lost to the Padres back in May.

Wood will face another veteran lefty in Blake Snell. With 5 quality starts in his last 6 appearances, Snell appears to have re-found his form. He has allowed just 2 runs over 12 innings in his last 2 starts, and has cut opposing batters’ average to .200, down from .289 in June.He had good success vs. the Giants when he last faced them.

The Giants hit a little better in their last 2 games vs. the A’s, but they are down in the depths as far as recent offense goes. Much is expected of the new, improved Padres, and while they didn’t show it vs. LA, their lineup definitely has potential. Monday’s starters have very similar records over their last 6 games, both very effective with a just one hiccup each. The Padres’ bullpen has been superior to the Giants’ in recent games. Past success vs. Wood, better recent offense and relief pitching and a home field advantage spells win for the Padres. 9*

The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing.

Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately.

The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home.

Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over.

The Red Sox are just 5-5 and have lost 2 of 3 on the road vs the Royals. They are usually effective on the road, and have a good chance of evening up the series on Sunday. Kutter Crawford, a reliever recently turned starter, now has 6 starts under his belt. He has been effective, probably better than any other Sox pitcher lately, and is stretched out to 6 inning starts. He has given up just 1 run in each of his last 2 starts. The Royals have never faced Crawford.

Keller starts for the Royals. He has struggled to a 5.21 ERA in his last 7 starts. He was hit very hard in his last start against the White Sox, allowing 13 hits and 8 runs over 5.2 innings. The Red Sox have hit Keller very hard when they faced him previously.

The Sox aren’t hitting especially well at the moment, but still have the potential for a high total against Keller.. The Royals have lost some significant players at the trade deadline and this will start to show. Neither bullpen is special. I am wagering on the Crawford, the better starter, and the Red Sox to win on Sunday.

The young and surprising Orioles' bats are sizzling at the moment, best in the league over the last week.  Even after selling at the deadline, they are still a possibility for a wild card spot, and are not giving up.  They have a very good record at home, and after winning 5 straight, should not be underestimated.  Watkins starts for the Orioles.  He has a 2.65 ERA in his last 7 starts and has given up just 5 runs over 16 innings in his last three appearances.  The Orioles are still getting very fine bullpen support.

The Pirates had Milwaukee's number but have struggled otherwise.  The offense has been an issue all season.  After losing the first two games to the Orioles, Wilson (1-6, 6.20) is an unlikely candidate to right the ship today.  He won't pitch for length and has had hard contact from batters all season.  The Pirates are not strong on the road, and have struggled against right handers lately.  With the superior offense, great momentum and a better starting pitcher today, I am wagering on the Orioles, a heavy favorite, to win today.  Take them on the run line; this team can hit. 9 stars.

While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent.  The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on.  He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched.  He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season.  His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle.

In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games.  Saturday's total is generous.  Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late.  Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*.

The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.

The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.

Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.

Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.

The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.

After a sweep at the hands of the Orioles, The Rangers won a tight game at home vs the White Sox on Thursday. Their bats have just been average of late, and they lost some key pieces on offense at the trade deadline. They’ll have a tough time scoring even three runs on Friday when they face the Sox’ Dylan Cease. Winner of Pitcher of the Month twice running, Cease continued his mastery of just about everyone. He hasn’t allowed more than a single run in 12 starts,. The Sox bullpen has been very good lately, and will be chomping at the bit. After some long starts, they haven’t had much work, but also haven’t given up a run in their last 5 games.

Cease faces the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. After a very poor June, he has steadied into a consistent pattern of allowing 3 or 4 runs over five or so innings. A combination of too many walks and hits leaves Otto consistently just out of the win column. While you wouldn’t have know it on Thursday, the Rangers pen has been struggling with an ERA of 6.23 over their last 5 games.

The White Sox are hitting well for average and power, especially vs. right-handers. Cease shows no sign of cooling off. Chicago has a very good past record vs. the Rangers. I am on the Sox on Friday and so are the odds-makers. Take the White Sox to win on the run line at -1 ½.

The Braves swept their last two series but now face a hot Mets team on the road. Atlanta isn’t quite as strong away from home, and they are being significantly out-hit by the Mets at the moment . Thursday’s starters squared off in May with Carrasco and the Mets winning 3-0. After a rough June, Carrasco was light-out in July with an ERA of 0.90. He gives up more hits than might be expected but is stingy with runs. He has been especially effective at home this year.

Atlanta’s Wright as also been very effective this season, with an ERA of 2.93 in his last 7 starts. The Mets have had some success against him in the past and he does give up more than his share of homeruns.

The Mets offense is quite something at the moment. They are a very good home team and while both starters are very effective, the edge goes to Carrasco in July. I am wagering on the Mets with the home advantage on Thursday. Take New York to win outright.

The Brewers have lost two straight to the lowly Pirates, so watch out for fireworks on Thursday. It is the first against the worst in terms of offense. Brewers are .290/.886 over the last 15 days while the Pirates occupy the cellar at .199/.594. The Brew Crew looks to Woodruff to stop the bleeding. He has been sharp in his last 7 games with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.31. He has been even better in his last two appearances, giving up just 2 runs over 12+ innings, striking out 17.

Zack Thompson starts for the Pirates and was absolutely crushed in his last two starts, giving up well over a run an inning with a total of 10+ innings pitched. While he pitched better than that in early July, he still ended up allowing opposing batters a .304 average. The Brewers have hit Thompson very hard in the past.

The Pirates do have a very good bullpen at the moment, but if Thompson continues as he has been pitching, it is likely the damage will have been done by then. Look for the Brewers to be swinging for the fences on Thursday. Take Milwaukee on the run line at – 1 ½.  9*.

I like Kansas City today. Brady Singer has been a good starter for them. Not only did he just post a 2.05 ERA in July, but back in May he defeated these very White Sox by tossing seven shutout innings of nine-strikeout, four-hit ball. His ERA in six career appearances against the White Sox is 2.73. 

Want to be even more impressed? Over his last three starts, Singer has a 0.95 ERA. He’s made four straight quality starts and just beat the Yankees, on the road, holding them to just one hit over seven frames. Singer has 22 strikeouts his last two starts. 

The Royals are just 4-6 their last 10 games and haven’t produced much offense in this series so far. It’s been just two runs in each game. They did steal the opener though. The White Sox are 6-4 their last 10 games overall, but do allow 5.3 runs/game at home. 

Lance Lynn has not been getting it done for Chicago. His ERA is 6.42. Clearly, the visiting team has a large edge in today’s starting pitching matchup.

That should be enough for the Royals to prevail. Love them at plus money in this situation.

After taking the series opener 6-5 (required 11 innings), the Guardians dropped yesterday’s game to the Diamondbacks by a count of 6-3. I expect the home team to bounce back this afternoon and take this series. Look for a win by two or more runs and take the Guards on the run line.

A pitching change for Arizona seems to have strengthened the Cleveland advantage here today. It was supposed to be Madison Bumgarner starting for the road team. Now it will be Tommy Henry. Henry, who had been on the taxi squad, is being recalled from Triple-A Reno. This is his big league debut.

Therefore, it’s a big-time edge in the starting pitching matchup for Cleveland as they have Shane Bieber going. Bieber has posted a 2.39 ERA at home over the last couple months with his last start here being a complete game. 

The last start for Bieber saw him go seven innings, allow just one run and the Guardians got the win, 4-1 over Tampa Bay. 

Arizona scoring six runs yesterday certainly surprised me. That will not happen again today. Not versus Bieber. Cleveland has won three of the four times they’ve been -175 or higher on the money line. They’ll win Wednesday by at least two runs.  Lay the -1.5.

The Diamondbacks have lost 4 straight games on the road and after a stretch of solid offense, they have sailed back into the batting doldrums, especially in the last week at .187/.606 OPS. They aren’t usually strong vs right-handers. Gallen, Tuesday’s starter, had five starts in July and his last three were very good, with just 3 runs given up over 18+ innings, and an opposing batting average of just .164. The Arizona pen has been top tier at 2.78 L15 games.

The Guardians have won 5 of 7 including last night’s home series opener. They are getting dependable hitting, and while some starters are struggling, the relief pitching has been excellent. Triston McKenzie has not been one of the Guardians’ poor starters. Anything but! He gave up 4 runs over 7 innings to the Red Sox, but was astounding in the rest of the month, giving up a single run in 26+ innings.

I am wagering on the Guardians on Tuesday. McKenzie pitched very well in his last start. He was unlucky to give up the four runs, and showed no sign of slowing down. Gallen has also pitched very well lately, but the Guardians have much the better offense, and the D-backs, who were forced to use 9 pitchers yesterday, might be a little tight in relievers. Take the Guardians to win outright on Tuesday.

The first vs the worst. The Brew Crew are tops in OPS and the Pirates are last over the last two weeks, struggling to a .188/.542 line. To make matters worse for the Pirates, Corbin Burns starts today He has been a strikeout machine lately with 26 in his last three games. He is 4-0, 1.96 ERA in his last 7 games.

He faces Bryse Wilson (1-6, 6.31), who has pitched better in July than his record would suggest. Wilson beat the Brewers when he last faced them, and has a 3.27 ERA over 4 starts in July.

With the way the two teams are hitting, a second win for Wilson is unlikely today. The Brewers are crushing right- handers in the last two weeks and Wilson struggles badly in the first two innings. I am wagering on the Brewers today, a big favorite, but a very good bet on the run line. Take Milwaukee to win at -1 ½.

The Tigers and Twins open a series today with both teams struggling lately. The Tigers are a poor road team this season, and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are getting effective pitching especially from the bullpen, but as usual are in the league dungeon as far as offense goes at .223/.650 OPS. Promising left hander Skubal starts for the Tigers today. He has been uneven at times this season, but his last two starts have been 6 inning shut outs, allowing just 5 hits total. Skubal shut out the Twins in June. He is certainly capable of a repeat.

The Twins were just 1-4 to close the month, allowing some very large runs-against totals in a couple of those losses. The Twins’ pitching collectively has struggled, and their big bats are in a tailspin at .196/.679 OPS. They have also lost Sano and Kepler to injury. Chris Archer starts for the Twins. He returned from the IL to throw two very poor starts, allowing 10 runs in just 7+ innings. All of his appearances have been short this season, which will allow the Tigers plenty of access to the Twins’ overworked bullpen.  A Tigers will win would not surprise me at all today. Take the Tigers to win. 9*

The 5-5 Nationals are at home to the Mets beginning on Monday, and will start Patrick Corbin. Every once in a while, Corbin (4-14, 6.49) will pitch like it is 2018 again, but it hasn’t been in any of his last 4 starts. His most recent outing was a “6 run in less than an inning” rout.

He faces Max Scherzer, who has been racking up the Ks since his return and also been very successful in limiting runs. He shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his last appearance.

The Mets are ‘tops of the bops’ at the moment with a .940 OPS, and off a trashing of Lopez and the Marlins on Sunday. Washington’s bats have been stagnant at .222/.635. They really struggle against good pitching, scoring 2 or less runs in 3 of 4 games. The bullpen has been effective, but the damage has been done by the time the starters (7.10 ERA/L10 games) are off to the showers. Corbin is a lefty, and the Mets have crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of .378 in the last 5 games.

The Mets are a large favorite, but unless we get a retro start from Corbin, they should be fine on the run line at – 1 ½.

The White Sox beat the upstart A’s by a narrow margin on Saturday, but it could be a bit easier going on Sunday. Oiler, the A’s right handed rookie has not had a favorable reception in his first season. After five early and ugly starts, he spent time in the minors, and as a reliever before starting a pair of games in July. He lasted 9 innings in the two starts, giving up 6 runs, so if nothing else he is a lot better than he was in April.

He faces the Cubs’ ace Dylan Cease, who has been masterful this season. At 5-1 and with an ERA of 0.63 in his last 7 games, he has allowed just three runs in two months. He hasn’t missed a start and gives 6 or 7 innings per appearance. Can you spell Cy Young candidate? He is even better when pitching in daylight.

The A’s have been hitting much better lately but they were held in check on Saturday and no one has been able to get to Cease. The Sox have been hitting well for average, and are 7-1 in Cease’s last 7 starts. Chicago is a heavy favorite but should be good for the extra runs. Take the White Sox on the run line at -1 ½

The hard hitting Mets got to the Marlins’ seemingly invincible ace Alcantara in Game One of their series, then shut the Marlins out in Game Two. Third time’s a charm! The Mets are tops in offense over the last week with a .907 OPS; the Marlins are 27th, struggling to an OPS of .634. The injury-riddled Marlins have struggled against the Mets lately winning just 1 of 4 games. Their usually very good pitching staff has put up a 5.71 ERA in the past 7 games, with short appearances from the starters putting pressure on the bullpen. Lopez, today’s starter, was very sharp in his last outing with a 7 inning 1 run effort, but that was the first time he pitched past the 5th in 4 games.

He faces a very good right hander in Walker today, 4-0 in 7 starts, with an ERA of 2.20. He shut out the Marlins over 7 innings just a few starts ago allowing just 3 hits.

The Mets have had some success vs Lopez. They roughed him up in June, but lost against him in July. I am on the side of the Mets today. They have won 5 straight, have an equally fine starter on the mound and have far more fire-power. Take the Mets to win.

The Tigers stole a win on the road vs the Jays on Friday. With Toronto in the hunt for that top wild card spot or better, they can’t afford to lose a pair of games to the Tigers, and those big bats will be hungry after being stymied yesterday. Veteran Ross Stripling has been Mr. Dependable for the Jays, and has filled in very well since they lost Ryu to injury. He has a 3.06 ERA in his last 7 games.

Drew Hutchison (4.80 ERA), another Tigers’ reliever turned starter, has had mixed success this year. He has pitched just 9 innings total in his last two starts, giving up 4 runs in each.

Both teams have had very good stuff from the pen lately, but on offense there is no comparison. The Jays are hitting right handers to the tune of .338 lately, the Tigers just .190. The bats will decide this one. Take the Jays to win on the run line at – 1 ½. 10*

The Royals have lost two straight to the Yankees, 3 if you count Benintendi, who traded sides this series. KC is very poor as a road underdog, and are struggling on offense, with 3 shutouts in 4 games. Heasley starts for the Royals. He is just back from the IL but was not pitching well before injury, at 1-3, 6.00 ERA in his last seven games, so is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

He faces Yankees’ left-hander Cortes (8-3, 3.38) who had a great start to his season, saw his innings and effectiveness drop in mid-June, but has looked much better in his last two starts. He is very effective at home.

The 5-5 Yankees aren’t hitting quite up to snuff, but are still in the top ten. They are a tough out at home, and very hard on right handed pitching. The Royals are missing Witt to injury and now with the loss of Benintendi, are without a good portion of their offense. The Yankees are a huge favorite, but the odds on the run line are still acceptable. Yankees to win at -1 ½.

A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles.

Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length.

The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month.

While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres.

Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*.

The Rangers must have been glad to exit Seattle, a team they have had no luck against at all lately. They have fared better against the Angels although neither team has played well lately. The Angels did win their last series, their first in a long time. Martin Perez (8-2 2.59) starts for the road Rangers. Perez lost his way for a couple of starts in what has been a very impressive season, but in his last two appearances he has given up just 2 runs over 12 innings. He faces the Rangers’ lefty Sandoval, who is 0-5, 4.75 ERA in his last 5 starts. Sandoval’s last two outing were very short, giving up more than a run an inning. He has been hit very hard in July.

The Angels’ bats stepped up briefly after a very long poor stretch, but appear to be back in the doldrums on Thursday night with 0 runs over 8 innings. Perez, when he is on, is hard to score against. The Rangers’ bats have also been sluggish, but will have their chances on Friday if Sandoval continues his present form. Take the Rangers to win on the road. 10*

The 7-3 Guardians are climbing in the standings, passing the Red Sox for a potential wild card spot. They are hitting the ball well lately, and have a tough starter on the mound for Thursday’s game vs the Sox. McKenzie has been solid all year, but especially fine in the month of June, allowing just a single run in four starts. He has pitched into the 7th at least and has held opposing batters to a paltry .146 ERA this month.

The Red Sox are just 2-8, down a pair of top hitters and a bucket-load of pitchers. They’ve lost 2 straight to the Guardians, still have severe pitching issues, and the bats remain quiet. Thursday’s starter is reliever turned starter Kutter Crawford. He has been one of the Sox’ better starters in June, and held the Jays and Rays to 3 runs over 6 innings in each of his last two starts. Don’t expect more innings than that on Thursday, which allows the Guardians a shot at that shaky and overworked bullpen.

Cleveland has the better offense, a stronger starter and the momentum of a good run. The Red Sox have to be demoralized, and waiting to see whose head will roll. Take The Guardians to continue their winning ways on Thursday.  9*

You don’t usually need a lot of runs to beat the Pirates these days. They are worst in the league on offense at the moment, scoring 2 or less in 7 of their last 9 games. They face a very fine right-hander in Zach Wheeler who has been very sharp in three of his four July starts. Other than a poor outing vs the Jays, he allowed just a single run over 21 innings, with a 2.45 ERA for the month. The Phillies’ bullpen has been better this year although they blew a fine outing from Wheeler last time out, so should be motivated this time out. The Phillies are middle of the road on offense but consistent, and certainly consistently better than the Pirates. They are a very good road team this year.

The Pirates’ Zach Thompson was very poor in April but has been usually solid since, until his last start when he struggled to 7 runs over 5 innings against the Marlins. It could be a one-off, but he has some very poor starts in his history. Thompson doesn’t usually offer much in the way of length, and Pirates bullpen, while ok lately, is not dependable over multiple innings.

Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense have too much of an edge on Thursday, and are a large favorite.  With the number of runs the Pirates have been putting up and the number of runs Wheeler is not giving up, a solid Phillies win could be in order.  take the Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

Took Toronto on the run line last night and I’ll do so again here. The Blue Jays are really swinging the bats as well as anybody right now. They put up 10 more runs last night and have averaged 9.7 runs/game during a seven-game win streak.

Obviously, Toronto’s offensive numbers are somewhat inflated by that incredible 28-run effort they hung on the Red Sox last week. But even if you take that game out, they are still averaging 6.1 runs/game since making a change at manager.

Kevin Gausman won’t need much offensive support here. He comes in with a 3.00 ERA in 99 innings pitched and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of the last five starts. Gausman should have no trouble shutting down a St. Louis lineup that is without Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, both of whom are unvaccinated and thus unable to travel to Canada. 

St. Louis is really at a disadvantage being down those two players. It also doesn’t help that Adam Wainwright has a 6.97 ERA in two previous starts vs. Toronto. Wainwright also gave up seven runs in his last start.

All signs point to another blowout win by the home team, so lay the -1.5. 10*

The Giants are in a pretty sorry state right now. They are 0-6 the last six games and have lost to Arizona 7-0 and 7-3 the last two days. I don’t understand why they’d be a favorite on the road in today’s matchup.

The six straight losses are a season-high for SF, who now finds itself below .500 for the first time all year. It’s the first time the team has had a losing record since April of last season. Winless since the All-Star Break, the Giants will send Logan Webb out to the mound today. The team is only 3-6 this year in Webb’s road starts.

Webb was great when he faced the Diamondbacks earlier in the month, but that was at home. Worth noting that Giants’ pitching has surrendered a total of 39 runs during the losing streak, an average of more than six per game.

Zac Gallen is the starter today for Arizona. His second half began with seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against Washington. Right before the All-Star Break, Gallen faced the Giants and held them to two runs in 6 2/3 innings. So he’s in fine form right now as are the D’backs, who have captured five of the last six games, all of them coming here at home.

Being hotter, at home and having arguably the better starting pitcher in today’s matchup makes Arizona look to be a solid value on the money line. 10* 

The Angels broke out against the Braves on Sunday, but they are back to their low-scoring ways on Monday night. They scored 2 runs or less in their 5 games previous, and allowed some big runs against. The Angels just can’t get the bats going lately, hitting a paltry .208/.527 OPS in the last two weeks. Left hander Suarez (1-4, 5.60) starts for the Angels. He had some success in June but has struggled with short poor starts in July.

The home side Royals just took a series from Rays, and are running roughshod over the Angels on Monday night. They are hitting the ball hard lately (.296/.795 OPS) and are getting pretty decent pitching for the moment. They send out a very young left hander in Angel Zerpa, up for just his second start and third appearance. He has two wins already, and held the Jays to just 1 run on four hits over 5 innings in his first start.

The Royals’ bullpen has been solid lately. The same cannot be said for the Angels’ relievers. I am not usually a fan of wagering on untried rookies, but Zerpa has excellent stuff and Suarez has not impressed. The Royals are hard on left handed pitching. The Angels, you guessed it, struggle. Take the Royals to win on Tuesday. 10* 

No one is hitting the ball harder than the Jays at the moment, and it isn’t just the infamous Boston series. They are 8-2, settling in with a new manager, and playing a Cardinals team missing 2 key players due to Covid border issues. Berrios starts for the Jays. His results have been very mixed this season, but he appears to have re-found his form, with four straight quality starts in July, allowing 8 runs over 23+ innings, and with a strikeout to walk ratio of 29 to 4. The Jays’ bullpen has been very effective of late, which is not always the case.

The Cardinals have also been hitting well but will miss those 2 very big bats in the line-up, and aren’t the best road team. They have won just 1 of 3 since the break, and send out a very young right hander to start in Pallante. He started the season as a reliever and has just 8 starts under his belt. Pallante was very good in June with an ERA of under three, but has given up a ton of hits in July and seen his ERA climb very significantly.

The Jays are a streaky team, and their lineup is absolutely on fire at the moment, from lead-off right through to ninth batter. Berrios is a very fine starter when right. They are a heavy favorite, which would usually not be warranted against a team like the Cardinals, however the Cards are very much depleted for this series. Pallante may have his hands full on Tuesday. Take the Jays on the run line at -1 1/2. 10*

The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July.

The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start.

We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9*

The Red Sox were humbled by the Jays, and the Yankees before that, and are right back in it on Monday when the hard-hitting Guardians come to town. The Guardians are among the big boppers at the moment, while the Sox offense, like every other part of this team, has underachieved lately. There is no rest in sight for the beleaguered Sox starters with Pivetta on the mound. His last three starts have been beyond the pale, allowing an opposing batting average of .390, with too many walks and home runs. Considering the timeline on his poor play, he is not really a candidate to bounce back on Monday. Don’t look for support from the bullpen with an ERA of well over eight lately.

Cleveland’s starter Plesac (2-7, 4.02) has also struggled lately, with a couple of short poor starts in his last two outings. Opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .297 in July. Plesac pitched well in June so a better start from him is not out of the question. The Guardian’s pen has been solid in relief lately.

I am on the Guardians on Monday. The Red Sox appear to be in the “when will this all end” mode. Their play on the field has been poor with another 2 errors on Sunday, and their line up is depleted. Look for the Guardians to pad their averages vs. the Sox’ pitching staff and to steal this one on the road.

The Reds had quite a run before the break, taking a series from the Yankees and sweeping the Rays, but they have lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals since. It is usually pitching issues for the Reds, and sure enough both starters and relievers have both slumped to ERAs approaching six in their last 7 games. Mahle (3-7, 4.48), Sunday’s starter, has just returned from the IL, out with shoulder issues. He has pitched better in his last starts than his record would suggest, but he has not been effective at home, and likely won’t pitch for length on Sunday.

The 5-3 Cardinals are near the top of the heap for offense at .299/.898 OPS in their last 7 games. Some of their starters are struggling, but that has not been the case with Mikolas. He has an ERA of 1.93 over his last 7 starts. Mikolas stymied the Reds just before the break, holding them to 1 run over 7 innings. Mikolas has been dependable and has consistently pitched for length this season.

Neither bullpen has been effective lately. This is no surprise for the Reds, but the Cardinals’ pen is usually more dependable. Mikolas will likely be more effective and stay in the game longer than Mahle, giving the Cards’ batters a chance to tee off on Cincinnati’s relievers. Take the Cardinals, a modest favorite, to win.

The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday.

Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening.

The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats.

Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday.

The suddenly-hot Jays have won 6 of 7, and set the team record for runs scored in Boston on Friday night. The Jays are a streaky team and their very fine offense has re-awakened lately. They have manhandled the Red Sox in recent meetings and are looking to make up ground in the crowded AL East. Just back from the All Star game, Manoah has walked the walk this year at 10-4, 2.28 ERA. He has already faced the Sox twice this year, tossing 14 innings and allowing just 2 runs. His last start was a 7 inning 1 run gem.

The Red Sox have given up 55 runs in their last 3 games, and while the pitching was especially brutal on Friday night, play on the field was also very poor. This is a demoralized team. They have now lost 7 straight, their pitching is a disaster, and they are hitting right handers at just a .198 clip L10 games.

Kutter Crawford is an unlikely savior. At the end of May, Crawford was a reliever with an 8.44 ERA. Now he has 5 starts under his belt, averages 5 innings an appearance, and has lowered his ERA to 4.50 (2.20 ERA in July). He gave up 3 runs in his last start, and hasn’t faced the Jays before.

It is hard to know how the Sox will react after such a poor effort. If it were a one-off, I would expect some bounce-back, but with 3 such poor losses in a row, who knows? The Jays often struggle when facing a pitcher for the first time, but their bats are on fire, and they will still have some innings against that very fallible bullpen. Manoah is tough to score very many runs on. Take the Jays to win.

The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35.

The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late.

I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under.

The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately.

The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball.

Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars.

Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count.

The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole.

The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road.

It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low.  This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals.  Take the over on Sunday>

The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half.

We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total.

He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard.

The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series.

It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season.

Berrios is the big question tomorrow.  Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each.  Take the Total to go over on Sunday.  9 stars.

Out of the frying pan, and into a high output gas burner. It doesn’t get any easier for the Cubs in the second game of the double header, as they face the Mets’ recently returned Scherzer. Two appearances back from a lengthy stay on the IL, and Scherzer hasn’t missed a beat, tossing two quality starts and allowing just 1 run on 13 innings of ball.

He faces the Cubs veteran Drew Smyly who also missed a start, but wasn’t so lucky on return. He was roughed up for 4 runs over just 2 innings. Smyly seldom pitches for length at the best of times which will put the burden where it is least needed, on the Cubs’ overworked and struggling bullpen.

The Mets are good on the road, and have been getting excellent starting pitching and solid relief. They broke out of their slump in the last two games scoring 15 runs. Let’s see if they will continue with the hot bats in games 1 & 2 today. The Cubs continue to struggle with the bats, and will be hard pressed in the second half of the double header for pitching.

The Mets are a bigger favorite in Game Two, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Mets on the run line, at -1 ½. 10*

A pair of sluggish offenses pair off on Saturday, although one team seems to be waking up. The 2-8 Cubs have lost 7 straight and were shut out by the Mets on Thursday. The Cubs have struggled mightily with their bats, scoring less than 3 runs in 8 of their last 10 starts and managed just a .183 BA vs right-handed pitching in their latest games. Short outings from their starters has been another problem, with a domino effect on the bullpen. Stroman, just one game back from the IL, starts on Saturday.  He hasn’t pitched very much this year, but looked good in a short outing in his first game back, tossing a four inning shut out. Don’t look for length from Stroman; the Cubs will want to be careful with him at this point.

The Mets are a good road team, and have been getting excellent starting pitching and solid relief, but the offense hit just .210 vs right handed pitching in the last week. They did manage a series win vs the Braves and roughed up the Cubs in the first game of the series  8-0.

One of those fine starters is Taijuan Walker, who has put together a very good half-season, and will be looking to avoid the fate of last year when he fell apart immediately following the All Star Break. He has had a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting just .163 against him in July.

I favor Walker and the Mets on Saturday. Walker will likely throw deeper into the game, the Mets have much better and better rested relievers and appear ready to start a run. 9/10 stars: Take the Mets to win.

Some would say they are overachieving, but the Mariners just keep on winning, now 10-1 in July. They won a close one last night vs the home team Rangers, and go for 2 straight in the series today. Robbie Ray starts for the M’s today, and he looks to have re-found his Cy Young form. Ray now has six straight quality starts allowing 1 run or less, while pitching 6 or 7 innings in each outing. He is, as usual, a strike-out machine.

For the Rangers, the tail end of their starting pitching line-up has really struggled, and with Bush, a reliever on the mound, it will be start by committee today. The only problem is that the “committee” is overworked and sporting an ugly 6.02 ERA.

The Mariners have some pop on offense, while the Rangers have more, but it is pitching that will rule the day today. The 5-7 Rangers have lost and won big in their last ten games, but Ray at the moment is very tough to run up much of a total, and the Seattle bullpen is lights out lately. The Mariners have won more than their share of close games lately, but I expect a wider margin today. Take the M’s, on a huge run and with all the momentum in the world, to win on the run line, at – 1 ½. 10*!

The Astros, with the second hottest offense in the league over the last two weeks, are right there in pitching stats as well. Not so the Angels, last in hitting lately and 22nd in pitching. It is no wonder the Angels are 2-8 and the Astros the reverse at 8-2.

Lefty rookie Reid Detmers came back from Triple A recharged, and threw a 6 inning 7 strikeout shutout his first game back. Detmers has had his moments this season, including a no hitter, but results have been very mixed.

He faces another left hander, the Astros’ very fine Framber Valdez (8-4, 2.64). Valdez faced the Angels just two starts ago, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings, and striking out 13! He keeps runs allowed to a minimum and pitches for length, holding the opposition to .167 BA in July.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Detmers pitched well tomorrow, but his outings seldom last beyond the 5th or 6th inning, and, wouldn’t you know it, the Angels’ bullpen is barely a shadow of the Astros’ stellar relievers. Take the Astros, dynamite on the road and vs left handed pitching, to win going away.

The Reds are suddenly on a roll, sweeping the Rays and splitting to date with the Yankees.  Meanwhile the Yankees look just slightly vulnerable at 5-5 L10.  The Reds are getting solid pitching, starting and relief, and have Castillo on the mound today.  Castillo (2.92 ERA) has really heated up in his last three starts, giving up just 2 runs in 20 innings and with some big strike out totals.

The Yankees pitching staff rarely struggles, but they have over the last week, with a collective ERA of 5.61. Lefty Cortes starts today.  A few cracks are starting to appear in Cortes' fine season.  His starts are shorter and he is giving up more runs (12 in his last 4 starts).  Opposing batters' avg. has climbed to .275 in July.  Add this to the Yankees' temporarily poor bullpen, and the Reds have a real opportunity for a second series victory.  I am wagering on the  Reds to keep this one close at least.  Take the Reds on the run line, at + 1 1/2.

The Twins, in spite of a very hot offense of late, are just 5-5 L10. It is the starting pitching that has been in question with a majority of very poor short starts. The bullpen has, over the same time, been reasonably effective.

Milwaukee has also struggled lately, but in their case the starters have been fine, while the bullpen has dropped the ball. Their offense had been very solid but it has cooled slightly in the last week.

The Brewers left hander Ashby (2-6, 4.52) started the season very well, but came off the rails at the beginning of June. Opposing hitters crushed him that month to the tune of .350, and July’s numbers have not been that much better. He has been very poor on the road this year.

He faces Twins’ rookie Joe Ryan. After a very fine start, he went on the IL, returning in June. Since then, he has shown steady improvement, flashing that early form in his last two starts.

The Twins are a good home team with very impressive OPS and home run stats. Ashby has been a victim of the long ball lately, and has not pitched for length. Ryan has the real goods and the Twins’ bullpen has been able to deliver lately, unlike the Brewers’. I am banking on the rookie Ryan and the Twins’ offense on Wednesday. Go with the favorite. Twins to win.

On paper, this looks like quite the mismatch. Cincinnati is 32-54 and in last place in the National League Central. The Yankees are 61-25 and not only in first place in the American League, but they have the best overall record in baseball.

But the Reds just did the Yankees a giant favor by sweeping Tampa Bay over the weekend. It was their first sweep of the season and just the second four-game win streak. The Reds might be buried in the standings, but they’ve gone a respectable 29-32 the last 61 games and deserve more respect than what they’re getting from the oddsmakers heading into this one.

Plus, the Yankees have lost two straight and could only manage a 3-3 split against Boston and Pittsburgh.

Ashcraft hasn’t been bad for Cincinnati as he’s allowed no more than two runs in six of his nine trips to the mound. Gerrit Cole allowed five runs in his last start for the Yankees and has given up a total of five home runs in the last three starts.

The Reds should not be this big of an underdog Tuesday. Take them on the run line, which is a tremendous value here at “plus money.” 

The Mets came in and took the series opener behind seven strong innings from Max Scherzer. I believe they can beat Atlanta again today with David Peterson set to start.

Peterson has a 9-2 team start record, which means the Mets have won 9 of the 11 times he’s started in 2022. His last start was shorter than usual (3.6 innings) with control issues (five walks). But that doesn’t worry me as the two starts before that one saw 18 strikeouts, no walks and only five runs allowed in 13 innings. Plus, the Mets won that last Peterson start anyway.

Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has been very good as well lately. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 0.50 and his WHIP is 0.611. Those are actually pretty filthy numbers. But the Braves are still just 4-4 in Strider’s eight starts this year.

Being that these are the top two teams in the NL East, this would seem to be a pretty even matchup, no? Taking the underdog is the way to go.

Now Strider does deserve our respect, so play the run line. Getting 1.5 runs at this price with a team like the Mets is a good deal. Before losing 4-1 last night, the Braves’ previous two games were both one-run wins against the last place Nationals.

Pittsburgh surprised a lot of people by going into Miami and winning 5-1. Following consecutive wins over the Brewers, the Pirates now find themselves on just their third three-game win streak of this season. They’ve yet to win four in a row. Over the last three seasons, the team has gone just 1-8 when it’s on a three-game win streak. So look for the Marlins to strike back and win today.

The Pirates have the worst offensive numbers of any National League team. Whether it’s on the road, or the last seven games overall, they’re hitting just .217. They average 3.4 runs/game on the road. A fourth straight game above that average seems rather unlikely.

The Marlins could certainly use a jolt at the plate. Fortunately, they’ll be facing Chris Stratton, who will be making his first start for the Pirates and first start period since 2019. Stratton has struggled as a reliever this year and doesn’t figure to last long. He’ll likely be used more as an “opener.” The problem with that (for the Pirates) is that the bullpen isn’t very reliable. 

Daniel Castano should be able to lead Miami to the win here. I already talked about how bad Pittsburgh has been swinging the bats. Castano’s last start at home was his best of the season, allowing just two runs in seven innings.

The Phillies have won 7 of 10, but It hasn’t been the big bats pulling the weight. The pitching staff has collectively thrown a 9 inning shut out in 4 of their last 7 games, and their often maligned bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the last 10 games.

The Cards’ bats ARE slumbering. They have been shut out 4 times in their last 10 games, twice by the Phillies, and are just 3 -7 lately. Their pitching has also been solid, especially the relievers; they haven’t given up more than 3 runs in their last 5 games.

Phillies’ starter Nola has had a solid season, and June was his best month. He consistently pitches into the 7th or 8th, has great control, and more than a few strikouts (120!) He has given up 7 runs in his last two starts, more than usual for Nola, but is very good in early innings.

His opponent Mikolas was brilliant early, and very good in June. He is a pitch to contact kind of guy, and doesn’t get the big strikeout totals. He faced the Phillies just 2 starts ago and allowed 4 runs, 2 earned over 6 innings.

I like the Phillies on Monday. The Cards haven’t faced Nola this year, and haven’t had much success against him in the past. The Phillies have the offense, they have the momentum at the moment, and they have done some damage against Mikolas. The Cards are struggling and I don’t think the turn around will come against Nola. He usually needs very little relief help. Take the Phillies to win.

The Cubs have lost three straight close games and are now 0-9 vs the Dodgers at home. The Cubs don’t get the job done on the road or against left handed pitching with any regularity. Meanwhile, the 9-1 Dodgers are on a tear, are dominant at home and very tough on lefties. LA left-hander Urias has won four straight games, giving up just 8 runs in his last 6 starts. There is no June swoon for Urias. He has improved as the season progressed, and consistently gives a 6 inning quality start.

Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.80) was getting the job done, especially early in the season, before injury. The opposition was hitting .277 against him in May. Smyly rarely pitches for length, but as he is just returning from the IL, that is a given today.

The Dodgers and Cubs are top ten in offense at the moment but the Dodgers have a good sized edge in power stats. Smyly can be prone to the long ball.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid lately but few can teams can match the Dodgers relief corps. All roads point to a Dodgers win. In his first game back, Smyly is a bit of an unknown. LA is a huge favorite but the odds on the run line are acceptable. Take the Dodgers to win at -1 ½.

The Tigers lost on Saturday, but have won 6 of 7, with solid offense, and other than last night, very good pitching. They are not a good road team, but have put up some surprising numbers lately and their bullpen has an ERA of under 2.00 L10. Usually a reliever, Drew Hutchison (4.30 ERA) has started 3 games in the Tigers rotation lately with modest success. His last game was his best, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. The Tigers will likely be reliant on that bullpen, as he has yet to pitch past the fifth.

The 5-5 White Sox crushed the Tigers on the back of a fine start from Johnny Cuetto, but things are not all roses with the White Sox’ pitching staff. Kopech, Sunday’s starter pitched brilliantly in the first two months, but has fallen off the rails in his last 4 starts. His last outing was his worst, giving up 6 runs in 4+ innings. Walks were always something of an issue, but his home runs allowed have skyrocketed.

The Sox are a very poor home team, but are hitting right-handers well at the moment.

The White Sox are a significant favorite for Sunday, but after four sub-par starts, Kopech’s issues look more than fleeting. The White Sox’ bullpen has an ERA of over 4.2 lately. Hutchison is a bit of an unknown, but the young Tigers team is on an impressive streak at the moment. A win on Sunday wouldn't surprise me, but I do expect them to keep this game close.  Take the Tigers on the run line at + 1 1/2..

The Mets beat the Marlins at home in extra innings on Saturday. They’ve had a solid edge over the Marlins this year, leading 7-3 in games to date, however they face the Marlins’ ace on Sunday. The Marlins’ right-hander Alcantara has been a dominant starter this year, with a 1.82 ERA to date. He has faced the Mets twice this season. One of those starts was his worst in some time, giving up 4 runs over 7 innings. The other was a two run win. Alcantara has been light-out vs anyone not named Lindor, and pitches for great length consistently.

His opponent is no slouch this year. Walker (7-2,2.86 ERA) has faced the Marlins twice this year, allowing 4 runs over 12+ innings. He has been very fine in June, and is much better at home than on the road (1.86 vs 3.44).

The Marlins are a little like the “Mets light”, not quite as strong on offense and not quite as consistent in the pen. Alcantara is a big equalizer. He lost last time out to the Mets, and I would think that that game will be a motivator. Not to discount Walker, but he isn’t quite as consistent or overpowering. I am banking on a big game from Alcantara and the underdog Marlins on Sunday. Miami to win outright.

The Rays lost to the Reds in extra innings in a very fine pitchers’ duel. They are hitting better lately but did not show it on Friday. Rasmussen (5-3, 3.30) starts on Saturday. He pitched well in his return from the IL, holding the Jays to a single run over 4+innings in his last outing. You seldom get length out of Rasmussen, but of all teams, the Rays know how to get the most out of their pitchers.

The same would not appear true with the way the Reds are handling their rookie fire-baller Greene (3-10, 6.01).He has had a few good outings but the bad more than outweighs the good, as we can see from his stats. He has definitely not shone lately, giving up 15 runs in 14 innings. He leads the league in the unenviable stat of most home runs allowed to date.

The Reds are a very poor home team, with an indifferent offense this year. Their bullpen is not at all dependable usually, but they’ve managed two good relief efforts in their last two games. Don’t count on a third. Neither pitcher will likely go long tomorrow. I am banking on the Rays and the Rays’ bullpen to bounce back and win.

The Orioles won in the late innings on Friday and can make it 7 straight victories today. Right hander Dean Kramer is on the mound today. After a late start, Kramer pitched surprisingly well over his first five appearances to an ERA of 1.29. Start# 6 did not go as well. He allowed 5 runs in an ugly 5th inning, nearly doubling his ERA. A return to past form, or simply a bad inning?

He faces Angels’ lefty Sandoval, who was also roughed up in his last start, getting beaten early and often. Sandoval was very successful in June, allowing just 6 runs in 4 starts, but there are some warning signs. He consistently allows more hits than is healthy, his walk totals are high, and he is much better at home.

The Angels, with all of their potential offense, just can’t seem to get it together in recent games and have now lost 6 of 7 on this road trip. The management change has not appeared to help. It is hard to have much faith in the Angels at the moment. I like the Oriole’s chances even as an underdog. I expect Kramer to rebound, and have more faith in the Orioles’ offense at the moment. Sandoval appears to dodge too many bullets for my liking. There is also the momentum factor; the Orioles have plenty and the Angels, after a dismal road trip, appear to have none. Take the Orioles to steal this one.

Things are looking up in Baltimore. The Orioles have been a solid home team this year and have now won five straight games. They are getting sharp starting pitching, especially from Tylers Wells (7-4, 3.09), today’s starter. Now in his second year, Wells is starting to look like the real thing. In his last three start he has allowed just 2 runs over 16 innings. He doesn’t usually pitch past the 5th or 6th but he opposition is hitting well under .200 for the months of June and July.

The Angels would appear to be in complete disarray at this moment. They are a poor road team, they can’t hit, and other than games started my Ohtani, can’t win either. In their last 5 losses, they have managed just 6 runs. Today’s starter Reid Detmers, is just back from Triple A, after a few rough outings in June. The rookie left hander has had his moments this season, including that no hitter, but he doesn’t usually pitch for length, and has been a victim of the long ball.

With neither starter usually pitching deep, we will see some innings from the pens, and neither team has an edge in that department, I am on the Orioles today. They are showing well lately, and Wells is the better starter. The Angels continue to flounder, with a managing change providing no relief. Take the Orioles to win outright today.

Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total.

His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts.

The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games.

Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly.  I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over.  Take the total to go over 6.5

The Royals knocked off the mighty Astros on Wednesday, but don’t count on two straight wins for KC. The Astros are hitting lefties at a .310 clip recently. No disrespect, but Royals starter Bubic is a struggling southpaw at the moment. Opposing hitters roughed him up to the tune of .302 in June. Not a good combo if you are a Royals fan. Bubic doesn’t pitch for length and the Royals’ bullpen has struggled all year, managing just a 5.35 ERA in their last 10 games.

The Astros are tops of the Bops at the moment, hitting for a massive OPS. They are a very good home team, and have Verlander on the mound. It is not like Verlander never has a bad game (he has had two this year), but he is as dependable as any pitcher, and held the Yankees and the Mets to 1 and 0 runs in his last two starts. He pitches for great length, and the Astros relief corps are the best in the business.

The Royals are a very poor road team, and dismal as a road underdog. This matchup is a mismatch, and the odds-makers agree. Anything can and will happen in an MLB game, but I am on the Astros on the run line on this one. Take Houston at - 1 1/2.

Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light?

The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under.

The 6-4 Twins still have those heavy bats, and are getting solid pitching lately. Their fine rookie Joe Ryan struggled somewhat in his return from the IL, but appears to be back in fine form after a 7 inning 1 run 7 K outing in his last start.

The Twins are a good road team and generally are tough on right-handers, but the face a fine one In the Sox’ Lance Lynn on Wednesday. It took Lynn a few starts to get it right after a protracted period on the disabled list, but he got it right in his fourth start, a 6 inning shutout. It doesn’t look like he will pitch for length quite yet, but it does seem that Lynn has found his form..

The White Sox are fine for average but they are lacklustre for power, especially lately. They are well below .500 at home, and are just 26th vs right-handed pitching this year. While it is easy to be high on Lynn, I am a big fan of Ryan this year, and it is good to seem him fully recovered from Covid. This one could be close, as the odds would suggest, but the Twins are a more powerful club and are getting much better relief support from their pen. Look for the Twins to squeak this one out on the road.

The Reds/Mets game on Tuesday features a couple of starters just back from the IL. Mets’ very fine right hander Scherzer looked good in his last rehab start, and was great before his injury this season. He has been there and done it all; a sound bet for an easy return.

He is up against Reds’ young left-hander Lodolo who was 1 for 3 as far as quality starts go in his rookie year before injury. He also looked strong in rehab assignments, but is hardly a seasoned vet, so he is much more of a question mark on Tuesday.

The Mets’ struggling starters can use the boost of Scherzer’s return, but their bullpen has been pulling its weight lately. Not so the Reds, whose pen has a wretched collective ERA of near 10.0 /L10 games.

The Reds are a poor home side at just 13-25 to date. The Mets have struggled to get the bats going lately but woke up against the Reds’ Greene yesterday. Tuesday could be the day for a big breakout, especially against the scrambling Reds’ bullpen. Neither starter will likely pitch for length after returning from the IL. Watch the Mets win this one going away.  Take the Mets on the Run line at - 1 1/2.

The 4-6 Angels aren’t hitting up a storm lately, scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. The Marlins have won 4 straight on the road, and now return home where they are above .500 this season. They start their ace Alcantara, (8-3, 1.95) a formidable right-hander consistently pitching for length and ERA. The Angels have almost no experience against Alcantara, and could be in for a rude awaking on Tuesday.

The Angels’ mighty righty Syndergaard (3.86) has struggled somewhat in his last starts, but has generally delivered this year. It is what happens post-Syndergaard, where the trouble could begin. The bullpen has done extra duty due to short starts and has not thrived, with an ERA of 6.31 in the last week.

Alcantara doesn’t usually need a lot of support, but the Marlins’ pen has been sharp with an ERA around 2.0 of late.

Better recent offense, a much better bullpen, and arguably a better starter gives the edge to the Marlins. They are favored, but shop around, then pay the price.

The White Sox have had a disappointing first half to the season, but they’re only 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. Coming off a weekend sweep of the Giants, they can chop more into that deficit as they host the first place Twins on Monday, the start of a pretty important three-game series.

Last time the teams met, the Twins swept. But that was back in April. The White Sox are not only out for revenge, but also playing much better baseball now than they were two and a half months ago. I already mentioned the sweep of San Francisco over the weekend. The Sox punctuated it with a 13-4 win yesterday.

That the sweep took place in San Francisco makes the weekend result all the more impressive for Chicago. Minnesota had a chance to sweep over the weekend as well, but failed, losing at home to Baltimore on Sunday, 3-1. 

Surprisingly, the Twins are just 3-8 their last 11 division games. Dylan Bundy isn’t very good when starting on the road. The team is 2-6 in his eight away starts and you can pin that on a 6.41 ERA and 1.526 WHIP.

Johnny Cueto has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last four starts. In three career starts vs. Minnesota, he’s 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and has 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. By the way, both of Minnesota’s wins against Baltimore over the weekend came in the final at-bat. 

Back on Thursday, I closed out June with a 10* Game of the Month winner on the Phillies. They won 14-4 behind Aaron Nola. I’m going back to the well today with Zach Wheeler, who has been every bit as effective as Nola this year. 

After winning again Friday, 5-3, the Phillies lost Saturday’s game to the Cardinals, 7-6. They succumbed to five St. Louis’ home runs, which is obviously something you shouldn’t expect to happen again.

Wheeler did allow a pair of home runs in his last start, but had previously allowed just three all season. He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.863 WHIP at home. 

Adam Wainwright is having another good year for St. Louis, but there are signs that regression may soon take hold. He’s allowed at least seven hits in each of the last five starts.

The Cardinals are only 2-6 in the +125 to +175 range on the road. The Phillies aren’t going to fall into another 5-0 hole after the first inning like they did yesterday. Take the home team!

After being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader, the Guardians now find themselves at 0-5 head to head vs. the Yankees in 2022. Of course, there are many teams that haven’t done well against the Yankees this season. But Cleveland is going to be pretty desperate to avoid the sweep today. Take them on the run line. 

Cleveland came into this series off a pair of dramatic victories over the first place Twins (both walkoffs). Even after the poor performance yesterday, the team has a winning record at home and is very much alive for the AL Central pennant.

The Yankees are only 8-8 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Jordan Montgomery is coming off two straight less than stellar outings. He allowed nine runs total and that was against Oakland and Tampa Bay. The Guardians are more respectable at the plate than those teams.

Having Triston McKenzie starting helps Cleveland’s cause Sunday as well. McKenzie has an 8-5 team start record this year, meaning the Guardians have won 8 of his 13 starts. His last two starts were also less than stellar, but both were against the same team (Minnesota).

I think the Guardians should - at the very worst - stay within a run here. An outright upset is a definite possibility. Grab the +1.5.

Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” 

Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games.

The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue.

Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. 

Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today.

Oakland won Friday’s game 3-1 - as a big underdog - and I think they’re worth a shot again Saturday, albeit on the run line against Seattle. While the A’s had previously lost four in a row, including the opener in Seattle, remember that they were very competitive against the Yankees earlier this week - despite not picking up a win.

Paul Blackburn starting today’s game definitely helps our cause. This right-hander is having a good season, particularly on the road where he’s 5-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.060 WHIP. Blackburn faced Seattle once before this season and not only did he pick up the win (4-2), but allowed just one hit in 5.3 innings. 

The Mariners have an 18-20 record at home, which has translated into a loss of 5.6 units. 

The thing about the A’s lineup is that it has been a lot better on the road. At home they average a rather pathetic 2.3 runs/game. On the road, that average jumps to 4.0, which isn’t all that different from the 4.1 runs/game Seattle averages at home. Again, the run line might come into play here as well.

Or maybe not as George Kirby starts for the Mariners and he has a 5.54 ERA in five previous home starts. Kirby allowed seven runs the last time we saw him and that was versus Baltimore. Take the +1.5. 

Revenge spot for the Nationals, who are 1-8 against the Marlins this season and were swept in the most recent series. Two things are different this time, however. One is that the Nationals are playing a lot better. They’ve won six of their last nine games. Two is that this time they are at home. 

Miami is simply not very good away from home. Their road record is 15-24. While they did come up big for me the other night, winning 4-3 at St. Louis, the Marlins had previously lost the first two games of that series. 

Over their last seven games, the Marlins are averaging only 2.7 runs. The only time in those seven games where they scored more than three runs was the last one, when they scored four. 

That’s good news for Josiah Gray, who already has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his most recent three starts. Somehow the Nationals have managed to lose all three. But going back even further, Gray has allowed no more than two runs in any of his previous starts. He’s due for a win here. 

Lefty Trevor Rogers seems to be the “weak link” of the Marlins rotation as he has a 5.86 ERA and 1.635 WHIP this season. The team is 4-10 in his 14 starts and only one time has Rogers made it through a full six innings. That was back in April. Look for Gray and the Nationals to get their revenge. 

Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400.

But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. 

The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week.

Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! 

\The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday.

The Phillies are now facing the prospect of getting swept in their own ballpark as they’ve lost the first two games of this series with the Braves by scores of 5-3 and 4-1. That leaves them not only five games back of Atlanta for second place in the NL East but also eight games back of first in the division. Not to mention the Phillies are now three games off the pace in the Wild Card chase.

The lack of offense we’ve seen from the Phillies these last two games is a bit concerning. But the team should have no concerns on the mound Thursday with Aaron Nola starting. Nola enters today with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. In his last four starts, he’s gone a total of 30 innings and allowed just three runs. 

Yes, the Braves have gone 21-5 in June. But the Phillies are 18-8 and also 35-17 the last 52 times they’ve lost the first two games of a series. 

Nola has had success in the past vs. Atlanta, going 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 26 starts. The last time he faced them was on May 26th. That game, which was in Atlanta, saw Nola go 8.3 innings and allow only one run on five hits. He also had 10 strikeouts. The Phillies ended up winning 4-1. 

Ian Anderson is starting here for the Braves. His WHIP is a little concerning, especially the last three starts where that number is 1.704. Two of the three starts saw Anderson last just four innings and give up four runs. As hot as Atlanta has been, trust me that Nola will be the difference maker in this game. 

Ok, enough is enough. Time for the Dodgers to beat the Rockies. Been a bit of a shocker this week at Coors Field with the road team dropping the first two games. While the Dodgers have been swept four times this year, I can’t see it happening here.

Urias has been excellent this season, even though he’s 5-6 for LA. His ERA is 2.48. Over his last three starts, Urias has allowed just four runs and eight hits in 18 innings with 25 strikeouts. 

The Rockies are actually 4-1 vs. the Dodgers this year. But coming into this series they were just a .500 team at home and 11 games below .500 overall. 

Marquez has struggled at home for the Rocks with a 6.70 ERA and 1.624 WHIP. That’s in eight starts. Colorado should feel fortunate that they’ve gone 5-3 in those eight starts, considering Marquez’s numbers. 

Even after yesterday’s result, the Rockies are only 4-14 after a win.

I like Miami here. They’ve got Alcantara on the hill and he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball. With Alcantara carrying a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you’d think that the Marlins would be better than 9-6 in his 15 starts this year. They’re not, but this price is too tempting to pass up.

Now the “elephant in the room” is Miami’s 1-10 record vs. St. Louis going back to last year. They’ve lost the first two games at Busch Stadium this week, 9-0 and 5-3. But they were expected to. Oddsmakers might still consider them an underdog today, but I believe that’s a mistake. Alcantara alone can be the difference maker. 

St. Louis has Pallante pitching and he’s still unproven with just four starts under his belt. Three of his four starts have come against the Reds or Cubs. 

Alcantara has never beaten the Cardinals, but does have a 0.99 ERA in four career starts against them. He’s allowed just 18 hits in those four starts with 29 strikeouts in 27.3 innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two of St. Louis’ best hitters, are a combined 3 for 22 with eight strikeouts lifetime vs. Alcantara. 

The Marlins are 5-0 the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. Make it 6-0! 

Oakland has been surprisingly competitive in this series. They led 5-3 on Monday, going into the seventh inning, before a six-run Yankees’ rally turned the tide. Last night’s game, where I had the Under, ended up being a 2-1 final. Even though the Yankees have had a bevy of close results recently (five of last 10 games decided by one run), anything other than a blowout win today seems unlikely. After all, this is a matchup of the teams with the best and worst records in all of baseball.

The Yanks are 12-2 in Jameson Taillon starts this year and 6-0 the last six. Taillon’s teammates had  to bail him out after a subpar outing last time, but that was against Houston. Offensively, Oakland is last in baseball in just about every major statistical category.

So far the Yankees are 21-5 in June. They are winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs/game at home for the year. 

The A’s are 5-19 this month. They lose by an average of 1.4 runs/game for all of 2022. Cole Irvin will start this afternoon for them. Each of his previous eight trips to the mound, the team has taken a loss. 

The Yankees are 19-7 in games vs. left-handed starters. Irvin and the A’s are no match for them.