The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix.  They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past.  However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday.  Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston.  With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers.  Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently.  In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average.  Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's.  While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts.  The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games.  Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close.  Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Pirates, buoyed by a series spit with the Braves and a series win over the Brewers, are home to the 2 -8 Reds on Friday.  Two good young pitchers start.  Abbott, the Reds' lefty has impressed this season.  He has pitched 70 innings in just two months and it might be starting to show, as his last two appearances have been poor, allowing 10 runs in just 9 innings pitched.  Oviedo has been the reverse.  He has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just 2 runs in his last 20 innings pitched.  He has had good support from the Pirates' pen in his last starts, winning all three games.  It is the Reds' bullpen that has really struggled lately, accumulating a massive 7.65 ERA L10.  The Pirates surprisingly have the edge on offense as well in recent action; .246 BA/.794 OPS compared to .203/.654 OPS.  The Reds are a streaky team and it appears that a bit of the wind has gone out of their young sails of late.  I like the Pirates, an underdog, to win this game outright.

The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience.  Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies.  Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed.  In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER.

Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA.

Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate.   Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS.  They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors.  The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS.  Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44.  The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. 

To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings.  That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

The Cubs are absolutely on fire on offense these days, with a line of .310/.992 OPS/L7 games. Compare the Mets at .193/.570, and it is no wonder that they are win-less in August.  Taillon, after a very rough start this season, has impressed lately, while not pitching overly long in his starts.  He had a 2.67 ERA in July and started August with a 5 inning 2 run appearance.  Not so, the Mets' right hander.  It has been more than a month since Carrasco had anything like a quality start.  Last time out, the Royals rang him up for 6 runs and a pair of dingers  over 6 innings.  His OP BA is close to  .350 over the last 5 weeks.

The Cubs are 5-1 in August with a massive 8.6 runs scored a game L7, and are getting solid relief pitching.  The Mets still seem to be in shock after the trade deadline.  This is a very good line given the situation.  Do not wait on this pick!!

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Rangers have won six straight, and now face the A's in Oakland.  The A's must have close to the worst home record in recent memory, and are very poor vs right-handed pitching.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  He had a couple of rough outings in July, but appears to have turned the corner in his last two  starts. In his most recent appearance he threw seven+ innings of one run ball with eleven K's.  Waldichuk starts for the A's, and he has been very uneven this season.  He hasn't pitched out of the fourth inning in any of his recent and infrequent starts.  The Dodgers roughed him up for four runs in just three+ innings last time out.    A poor A's bullpen (6.00 ERA/L5 games) is not a dependable option if Waldichuk has another short start.  It hasn't always been the case, but the Rangers' pen is in top form with an ERA under 2.00/ L7.

The Rangers are seeing the ball very well  with the third best OPS of .952 in the last week.  While the A's have won two straight, this really should be another win for the hard-hitting Rangers.  Take Texas on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

Detroit evened their home series vs the Rays on Saturday much to my surprise and dismay.  It will be Manning vs Glasnow on Sunday.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, giving the Rays seven innings in three straight games, while allowing just four runs total.  He has pitched better on the road this season. Manning returned from the IL in fine form, but his last two games have been poor.  He has given up 4 home runs in the two games.

The Rays really should win this one.  The Tigers are poor at home and 29th in the league against right handed pitching.  Glasnow is one of the finest right handers around at the moment.  The Rays are hitting much better than in their dark days of July, and fifth in the league against right handers.  Their bullpen is showing signs of improvement, and has a decided edge on the Tigers' relief corps.  Considering how the Orioles are playing, Tampa really can't afford a series loss to a lesser team like the Tigers.

Tampa is 4-1 against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to rebound from Saturday's loss in a big way.  Game three will go to the Rays. Take Tampa on the Run line at -1 1/2.

The Royals are a surprising 4-0 in August, hitting well above their weight at .327 BA/.894 OPS in the last week.  They swept both the Mets and Twins, but considering their season, it is hard to think that this surge is sustainable.  One negative in this 8-2 run is the bullpen, 28th ranked this year, and with a 5.45 ERA over the last ten games. The Royals are a poor road team this year, and struggle against left handed pitching.  They will face a fine young lefty in the Phillies' Sanchez.  He has come into his own since mid-June and has allowed no more than 3 runs in 5 starts, sporting a very fine .172 Op BA in July.  The Phillies do have a good bullpen this year, a rarity for them in recent history.  Their offense has been just average recently but they will have their chances today when facing the Royals' Marsh.  The rookie right-hander has struggled more often than not in his first season, giving up 9 runs over 8 innings in his last two starts.  Walks, hit batters, and the long ball have all been issues.  This is the day the Royals come back to earth.  Take the 6-4 Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Rays made a big pickup at the deadline, adding Guardians starter Civale.  He missed some time to the IL but has been good and consistent since returning, with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven appearances. He has pitched for good length too; 20+ innings of 3 run ball in his last three starts.  Civale is very good in the early innings.  Detroit's lefty Skubal spent many month on the IL this season.  Since returning, none of his starts have been longer than five innings. Two of five starts were ugly and the other two were shut-outs.   He has been very good (in a small sample size) at home.

The Rays' offense is on the upswing, climbing to 10th at .252/.801 OPS, much better that the Tigers' 25th ranked line.  The Rays pen has looked a little more like its dependable self lately as well.  Skubal is all or nothing in his recent starts.  Even if he pitches well he is unlikely to stick around past the fifth inning.  Civale is much more likely to pitch longer.  Tampa has won four straight against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to continue it's rebound from a very rough stretch.  Game two goes to the Rays.

The Astros lost a close one to the Yankees on Thursday, but I like their chances to bounce back today.  While Hunter Brown's season has been up and down this year, in his last two starts he has been very tough to score on.  He has been solid on the road this season.   The Yankees' right hander Severino has had a very tough year.  Off one of his worst starts (9 runs/3.1 innings), the quality starts have been few and far between.   The Astros are a good road team, hitting very well at the moment (.293/.846 OPS/L7 games). They have made some excellent additions at the deadline, while the Yankees really stood pat.  The Yankees struggle vs right handers this year to the tune of just .226 BA and are giving up more runs than they are scoring (3.6/4.0 L7 games).  It is hard to expect much of Severino.  I'll take the Astros to even the series today. 

The 4-6 Reds ran into a very hot Cubs team that roughed up their pitching pretty thoroughly.  They'll turn to Ashcraft to right the ship against Corbin and the Nationals on Friday.  Ashcraft is back in the groove with a sparkling 1.84 ERA in July.  He hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 6 starts, while pitching into the sixth or more.  He held the Nats to a single run over 6 innings the last time he faced them.  His counterpart, lefty Patrick Corbin struggled in July with a 5.83 ERA and a .314 Op BA for the month.  The Reds are the wrong team to face with that kind of an average; they're hitting .265/.820 OPS in the last week, much better than the Nationals.  The Nationals' bullpen is one of the league's worst, with an ERA of 6.23 on the road this season.  The Reds' bullpen has been heavily used and ineffective in their last series, but is still the better of the two.
Cincinnati is 4-0 vs Washington this year. They are heavily favored, and I like their chances.  Take the Reds to build a lead early and hang on for a home win on Friday.

The 8-2 Cubs are the hottest team in the NL in the last 10 games, absolutely scorching the league on offense (.307 BA, .939 OPS) in their last 15 games.  The Reds have a strong offense (.255, .764 OPS) but pale in comparison.  The Cubs have crushed the Reds in two of three games in the series, allowing a hefty 21 runs, but scoring 41.  Taillon is pitching much better than his season's ERA, allowing just 2 runs in 11+ innings in his last two appearances, with a 2.67 ERA in July.  The Reds' right-hander Weaver is off a solid start but previous July appearances were short and poor. He was hit to a .292 Op BA, and gave up 8 home runs in July.  The Reds are giving up more runs than they score; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.15 ERA/L10, and has been seriously stretched in the last few games.  They'll have a tough time outscoring the Cubs on Monday.  Take Chicago to win at home.

The Royals have won 5 straight games, including 2 against the gutted Mets.  While it doesn't always translate immediately, you've got to think that the Mets will struggle.  KC is hitting well for average, and at least average for power over the last two weeks, outpacing the Mets.  Royals right-hander Singer has had more quality than poor starts in July.  He has a 3.79 ERA since the All-Star  break, and his strikeouts are up, with 19 K's to 3 walks in his last two appearances.  Mets' righty Carrasco is still struggling, allowing well over a run an inning in his last two starts.  The Mets have the better bullpen.  I like KC's chances today, especially early.  Take the surprising Royals to build up a lead and hang on in the late innings. Royals to win three straight over NY.

The White Sox continued their sell off by shipping out starting 3B Burger, to add to their trading away of their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Probable starter Cease is respectable as the next man up but not enough to tip the scales in the White Sox favor.  His numbers are similar to probable starter Dunning for the Rangers so Cease should keep them even for awhile.  His available bullpen throwers for Wednesday are a step down those from on tap for the Rangers, so things could begin to fall apart after Cease and Dunning have done their customary 5 innings.

Where the game will really go south for the White Sox is at the plate.  Over the last 15 days they have continued to plummet at bat as their team avg. is 26th in the majors and their OPS is dead last.  The Rangers are in 18th and 11th respectively over the same time frame but throughout the season they have feasted on RHPs with the best avg. and the 3rd best OPS in the majors.  These are teams headed in different directions which will make this a solid call for the Rangers to win. 

Probable starting pitcher for the Brewers, southpaw Miley, has been on a heater as of late with a 4-1 record in his last 5 and a scintillating 1.20 ERA.    He has been solid with three of his last 5 starts being scoreless outings for him. The Nationals’ probable starting pitcher is another lefty, Gore. His results haven’t been as great as he’s only averaged 4 IP over that span which has resulted in a 2-3 record, even though two of his outings have been scoreless for the opposition.  He almost must be perfect to get a win for the woeful Nationals. 

The available bullpen for the Nationals sports a 5.43 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP so Gore doesn’t have much backup for this one. 

The Nationals decided to sell their OPS and home run leader, 3B Candelario.  Given their last 7 days have resulted in a 26th best avg and 30th best OPS in the majors this won’t get better in their game against the Brewers.  The Nationals have hit LH starters hard but have only a 15-24 record to show for it.  In terms of run differential against LH starters it is +.2 for the Brewers and -.9 for the Nationals.  The Nationals have a lot working against them for Wednesday’s game and consequently the Brewers will win this one.

The Rangers and the White Sox couldn’t be headed in more different directions.  The White Sox just traded their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Consequently, this will be a bullpen game for them with probable starter Scholtens making his third start of the season instead of coming out of the bullpen.  There are big holes in the rest of the bullpen that will be called on to help out.  Scholtens lost both starts and has a WHIP of 1.97 in them, so it doesn’t bode well for the White Sox. 

Probable starter Heany for the Rangers is in a more accustomed position with a 2.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, having shutout the opposition in two of those starts.

At the plate the Rangers have been 1st in avg. and 2nd in OPS in the majors against RH starters.  They have cooled down overall lately with a couple of injuries to key contributors but are still far superior to the White Sox who are 23rd in avg and 26th in OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.

On the road with their 20-35 record the White Sox have a -0.7 run differential/9 innings while the Rangers with their 34-20 home record have a +1.6 run differential/9 innings.  Clearly the White Sox are in tough in so many ways that laying the points for the Rangers is a clear call.

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

The Rays, off a road series win vs the Astros, seem to be emerging from their July swoon. They face the 5-5 Yankees whose record benefits from a series sweep against KC, but who have otherwise been equally unimpressive in July.  Tampa's offense is starting to climb up the ladder, now 17th in offense (.241 BA, .746 OPS), while the Yankees are still near bottom-dwellers at .225 BA/.669 OPS.  While neither team has excelled in July, some key features other than starting pitching favor the Rays today.  Tampa is a robust 50-39 vs right-handers (44-42 Yankees) and 18-13 vs division opponents (14-19 Yankees).  Looking at the starters, German has been one of the most uneven starters this season, ranging from his no-hitter in June to a 3.1 inning 10 run dog the previous game.  He has been very poor in his last two starts, giving up nearly a run an inning.  His first inning ERA (6.63) speaks for itself.  Meanwhile Glasnow has had two wins and three two-run or less starts in his last four appearances, ending July with a 2.30 ERA and a .197 opposing batting average.

The Yankees struggle vs right-handed pitching, and Glasow in a good one.  Who knows quite what to expect from German?  NY has the better bullpen, but the offense remains a mystery. Glasnow has been delivering 7 inning starts in his last two games.  I favor the Rays to continue in their rebuild.  Take Tampa to win.

The 7-3 Reds seem to know how to win this year.  They are getting good starting pitching, which includes Sunday's starter Ashcraft.  He has pitched well this month after a dreadful June, with a 2.331 ERA in July, giving up 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts.  It is a similar story for the Dodgers' Grove; poor June followed by a solid July, with a 3.66 ERA for the month.  One caveat for Grove is his Op BA, a hefty .308 for the month.  The Dodgers are hitting well, .271 BA, .806 OPS, considerably better than the Reds. The Reds have a youthful enthusiasm this season earning a split in the last two games , and a 3-2 season lead with the Dodgers.  Aschcraft has been consistent enough lately to question the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. Both series games have been decided by a single run.  Take the Reds on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Cubs are hitting very well at the moment and have won five straight vs the opposing Cardinals, including a recent 7-2 victory featuring today's Cubs starter Taillon.  Chicago has also limited teams to under three runs in four of five recent games while scoring 37 runs L5.  Taillon, who struggled much of the season, has pitched well in July, with a 2.96 ERA  and a 20-4 K/BB ratio.  The Cubs' bullpen has out-pitched the Cards' relievers at a 2.93 to 6.10 ERA over the last ten games.  Chicago has a very healthy 6.9/4.4 runs for and against ratio Last seven games.  The Cards are in the negative at 5.1/6.4 in their last seven games.  Wainwright starts for the Cardinals.  While he pitched well in his last stat, this has not been a fitting end to an illustrious career.  It is hard to bet on his continued success today.  Take the Cubs to win on the road again.

It is Dunning vs Musgrove as the Rangers face the Padres in San Diego. Dunning struggled his last time out with his worst start of the year; five runs over three innings pitched. That is two sub-par starts in his last three appearances. And while the Rangers are still hitting very well, their bullpen has not been an asset, resulting in a 6.6/7.3 runs for and against ratio. The Padres hitting still isn’t really where it should be, but they are now 10th in OPS (.811) over the last week. Padres’ right-hander Musgrove has been on a roll with just a 2.00 ERA last three starts. His three runs given up to Detroit last time out is the most he has given up in six appearances. The Padres’ pen has been very strong with an ERA of under 3.00 in home games this year.

San Diego has won each of Musgrove’s last four starts by two or more runs. Dunning’s performance lately is concerning and there is also the bullpen to consider. Look for Musgrove and the SD bullpen to hold down the Texas offense. Take the Padres to win today.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

The Cubs and the Cards have both been up and down this season and ultimately ending up below .500 and side by side in the NL Central.  The Cubs have dominated the Cards and are 3-1 over their last 4 games head-to-head and 5-2 over their last 7. 

Probable starters Steele for the Cubs and Mikolas for the Cards have had some impressive outings over their last 5 starts.  Both have a 2.40 ERA, while Steele has lasted an inning longer on average.  In his last two starts against the Cubs Mikolas is 1-1 with his latest outing against them resulting in 5IP and 5 ERs against.  Steele is 3-0 vs the Cards in his last 3 this season, lasting 6 innings in each, including a July 21st win.  Mikolas gave up 11 hits and 5 ERs in his most recent loss to the Cubs July 22nd. 

Both teams have been at or near the top in avg. and OPS since the All-star break, but the Cubs have been more productive.   In their last 7 the Cubs have a positive run diff/9 innings of 2.7 while the Cards’ is only 0.1.  Additionally, the Cubs average twice as many hits and BB vs. RH starters this season as the Cards do vs. LH starters.  It’s clear that the Cubs should be good value as a play for this one. 

This midweek matchup in the Windy City is a study in mediocrity.  Probable pitchers Stroman for the Cubs and Lynn for the White Sox have struggled lately.  Especially Stroman who had so many fine starts in June and May.  He has a 6.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP so far in July.  He is 1-3 in his last 5 starts and has lasted an average of 4.5 innings over that stretch.  He is 4-2 in his road starts which will contribute to our call for the play on this game. 

Lynn has a 4.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for July.  Not as bad as Stroman’s but not world beating either.  He is 2-4 in home starts.

At the plate the mediocrity is more one sided.  In the last 15 days the White Sox are 13th in avg and 27th in the more influential stat, OPS.  The Cubs on the other hand are leading the majors in both stats over the last 15 days.  They also have a significant positive run differential over the last 7 games of 2.9 runs/game while the White Sox have a negative run differential over the same span of 0.1 runs/game.  At home the White Sox have a negative run differential of 0.9 runs/game while the the Cubs have a positive run differential of 0.2 runs/game. 

In July the Cubs are 10-9 while the White Sox 5-12.  It’s clear that the Cubs are less mediocre than the White Sox.  That is enough to get them over the finish line as a solid value pick on our midweek mediocre feature for Wednesday.

It has been a tough July for the two Florida teams.  Both started off strong, but the Rays have fallen out of first in the AL East and the Marlins have fallen well off the pace in the NL East.  Probable starter Alcantara for the Marlins has pitched well but is still 1-3 in his last five starts.  In July specifically he is 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  He also has an overall record of 2-5 on the road with a 4.91 ERA.

Eflin has been outstanding (apart from a 3 inning, 5 earned run outing at KC recently) with a 10-1 home record which includes 7 innings of shutout pitching vs. the Orioles in their most recent series for first place that led to the Rays’ only win in the series.  His ERA for July has been a respectable 3.68 (despite that disastous outing at KC) and his WHIP has been excellent at 0.82.

Both teams have been in the middle of the pack in the last 15 days at the plate although this season the Rays have a positive run differential vs. RH starters and at home while the Marlins are negative vs RH starters and on the road.  And the Rays have one outstanding stat at the plate as they have the 6th best OPS in the majors at home.

The clincher comes when you realize that the Rays are 9-1 in the last 10 games head-to-head with the Marlins.  Take the Rays in this battle of Florida.

Probable pitchers, Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been outstanding lately.  In his last 5 outings Abbott’s ERA has been 2.00.  He has allowed 0, 2, 6, 1 and 1 earned runs.  His record has been 3-2.  The two losses have been to the Brewers.  Burnes has been even better with a 5-0 record in his last 5 outings, a 1.60 ERA and allowing 0, 0, 2, 2 and 4 earned runs.  Both pitchers have averaged 6.1 IP over these 5 outings.  The other big difference is that Burnes won his two outings against the Reds in this stretch.  The Reds have struggled mightily to hit against Burnes.  In the last 15 days the Reds have struggled to hit against anyone with their avg. and OPS in the bottom 5th of the majors.

Available relievers is another advantage the Brewers will have over the Reds for this one.  The Brewers look like a great play Tuesday night.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

The Pirates swept the Padres in Pittsburgh in June, so a little payback may be in order, starting on Monday.  Yu Darvish will start for the Padres and he has been very sharp in July, allowing 3,1, and 0 runs in his last three starts.  The Pirates have not been hitting well (.218 BA, 6.635 OPS), and are just 4 -13 in July.  Their runs for/runs against ratio is a rough 3.0/6.4. A very fresh face will start for the Pirates.  Priester was roughed up in his first career start, allowing seven runs and a pair of home runs in five + innings.  The Padres are not a team you want to face when giving up long balls.  San Diego is hitting better of late (.245, .798), and ran up 14 runs just a couple of starts ago. Both teams are getting reasonable relief pitching at the moment, but  I think the Padres might run up the score early in this game.  Take San Diego on the run line at -1 1/2.

In a single season, Reds' starter Ashcraft has gone from excellent to awful and now back to solid again.  After a 10.38 ERA in June, he is 2-1 2.00 ERA in July, cutting way down on the long balls.  Ashcraft has consistently pitched better in away games.  Colin Rea (5-4, 4.64 ERA) has been somewhat uneven with about equal quality and poorer starts, pitching 5 innings per appearance.  The Reds tagged him for 5 runs over 4.2 innings just two starts ago.  The Brewers, as usual, are good pitch-no hit this season, allowing 2.7 runs while scoring 3.9 over their last seven games. At 12-6 in July, pitching has definitely carried them, but Rea is not their best starter, and they play a tough offensive team on Monday.  The Reds have re-found their winning touch, now with 5 straight victories.  They tend to win in bunches, and are hitting well (.271 BA, .837 OPS L2 weeks).  They lost 3 of 4 against the Brewers last time out, so will be looking for pay-back today.  Take Ashcraft and the Reds, a small dog today, to win on the road.

The 4-6 White Sox lost the first two games of their road series vs the Twins on Saturday.  It'll be Giolito vs Ober, a pair of quality right handers on Sunday.  The Twins are seeing the ball well, hitting .255 BA/.824 OPS over the last two weeks.  The White Sox are struggling in 28th place in OPS, with a poor 5.0/6.0 runs scored to runs allowed ratio.  Giolito was absolutely bombed last time out after a pair of dynamite starts.  He is a bit Jekyll and Hyde-ish with a road ERA 3 runs higher than when pitching at home.  Ober has been very sharp in July with a 1.89 ERA , 18 K's to 3 walks and just 4 runs allowed.  I favor the Twins pen over Chicago's relievers.  Giolito's future is up in the air, and the Twins are trying to fend off the Guardians for first in their division.  I like the Twins chances for the sweep on Sunday.  Minnesota to win.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

It will be pitching vs hitting when the Nationals face the Giants in Washington on Saturday.  The Nats are outhitting the Giants at the moment; Washington is 6th in OPS while the Giants are way down yonder at 27th in the last two weeks.  When it comes to pitching it is no contest.  Washington has the league's worst pitching over the last two weeks with an ugly 6.13 ERA.  Their bullpen is approaching double figures in ERA in that time frame. The Nats are giving up a whopping 7.7 runs a game compared to 4.1 for SF.  Webb starts for the Giants.  He is a work horse in top form, giving up just 4 runs while striking out 28 over 22+ innings in his last three starts.  He'll face Josiah Gray, who has had some fine starts this year, but can struggle.  4or 5 runs given up over 5 innings is a common thread for Gray.  While Webb may pitch better at home, Gray's ERA is nearly double in home games.  
San Fran is a very good road team and 33-21 in night games.  The Nats are just 15-32 at home and 18-35 at night.  Look for the Giants to run up the tab against the Washington bullpen and win on the run line (-1 1/2)

It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801.  The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series.  The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games.  Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA.  He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth.  He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start.  Dunning is 5-0 at home.
The Rangers are a very good home team, and a good bet to rebound after a loss.  Neither bullpen is especially strong. I like Dunning and the Rangers to come out on top today as the pride of Texas take umbrage over a lopsided loss. Take the underdog to win or at least keep this one close.

It is hard to find anything positive about the A's at the moment, other than Friday's starter, lefty J.P. Sears.  He delivers quality starts more often than not and has given up just 4 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts, holding opponents to a very low ERA of .169 in July. Sears is better at home.  The last three of his starts have been decided by one run.  He'll face one of the premier left handers in the Astros' Valdez.  He has struggled a little in his last three games, allowing 11 runs over 18 innings.  In spite of 13 K's last time out he still allowed 5 runs over six innings.  Mind you, he faces the A's and not the Angels on Friday. Valdez hasn't pitched as well on the road this year.   The Astros have the superior bullpen but it hasn't been as sharp lately. About all that  can be said about Oakland's relievers, is that they will be well-rested after Thursday's game.
The 5-5 Astros are not hitting especially well at the moment (.236 BA/.668 OPS L2weeks), really not much better than the A's in the same time frame.  Both starters are likely to last at least 5 innings. Based on Sears' recent performances, I expect a low scoring game, and like the A's chances to keep this game close early. Take the Athletics to lead or stay close after the first five innings, and hang on to cover. A's +1 1/2

The Rays are just 3-12 in July.  While still favored against the Orioles today, there are compelling reasons to back Baltimore.  The Rays just aren't generating offense lately; 23rd in OPS and 26th in RBIs over the last two weeks.  Add in their inability to respond after a loss this year, where they are just 20-19.  Meanwhile the Orioles are hitting everything in sight, and are now first in RBIs and fourth in OPS L15 days.  Efflin has looked solid for the Rays this year, but he is off a poor start last time out, giving up 5 runs over 3 innings.  He will face Bradish who has been white hot lately.  He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a game since the end of May and allowed only 1 run in his last 3 starts.  He beat Glasnow and the Rays in June.
The Orioles are a fine road team this year, and are getting more than acceptable relief pitching.  The Rays' vaunted bullpen has been a little off lately.
I am on the underdog today.  Jump on the young and impressive Orioles, now challenging for first in their division, to kick the Rays while they are down.  Take the Orioles on the money line.

The A's won at home on Wednesday, but that is all the winning they've done at 1-9. The Astros haven't been that much better at 5-5, but they are on a 6-0 run vs Oakland this year.  They haven't been getting their usual fine pitching lately, but you can't blame it on Thursday's starter, right hander Ty Frances.  The Late bloomer has been a steady presence in the Astros rotation.  He has allowed 3 ER or fewer and generally pitched into the 6th since the beginning of June.  He has been especially sharp in away games. The Astros haven't given France much run support but they will have their chances against lefty A's rookie Hogan Harris. Harris is an occasional starter/long reliever who has had poor results in his last three games, giving up more than a run an inning.  The A's bullpen is a mess this year and even with the Astro's pen underachieving lately, I still favor the Astros in the later innings.
Houston is a good road team and tough on left handed pitching this season.  The A's are  hitting right handers at just a .216 clip and are a very poor road team.
The Astros are heavily favored, but a more than acceptable bet on the run line.  Take Houston - 1 1/2.

After Toronto’s lates experiment with Manoah in the series opener against San Diego, the Blue Jays are back to basics with probable starter Berrios.  He has been solid all year but especially in his latest three starts where his ERA and WHIP have sparkled at 2.45 and 0.82 respectively ( and a miniscule 0.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for July).  In contrast probable starter for the Padres is veteran Darvish who has been to war against the Blue Jays back in 2011-16 but lately has struggled with a 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Blue Jays bats have dominated over the last 7 days with the top avg. in the majors and the 8th OPS.  Over the same time period the Padres have an impressive 9th best OPS but a mediocre 19th best average.  Against right handers the Jays are 6th in avg and 9th in OPS while the Padres are much weaker being 26th and 18th respectively.

The Blue Jays only blemish over their last five games was that clunker by Manoah.  They are 19-7 in inter-league games, 26-18 at home and 44-33 vs. RH starters.  By the same token the Padres are 2-3 over their last five (which includes that win against Manoah), 12-11 in inter-league games, 19-27 on the road and 26-33 vs RH starters.  With Berrios doing his thing you should take the Jays to win game two of this series.

Two hot teams and two solid probable starting pitchers will be tested to different degrees.  Southpaw Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies since he joined the rotation after his recall June 17th.  He has a stellar 2.77 Era in 5 starts with only 8 ERs in 26 IP.  His WHIP in June was 1.00 and a tiny 0.73 in July.  He will be throwing against a Brewers squad that has the 29th avg and 26th OPS in the majors against lefties.  This is certainly a chance for Sanchez to extend his solid run of late. 

Rea has been solid for the Brewers but his July ERA and WHIP have begun to creep up to 5.56 and 1.24 respectively.  Rea will be going up against Phillies’ batters that have been red hot in July.  They have the 5th best avg. and OPS in the majors for this month. He has only gone past 6 innings twice this year so his bullpen will be relied on.  The available relievers for this game are solid but the bullpen staff has been just OK on the road with a 4.29 ERA. 

If Sanchez needs help the Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a 2.99 ERA.

This should be a chance for the Phillies bats to continue their July success while it doesn’t look promising for the Brewers against this solid lefthanded starter.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line.

Another pick with two hot teams.  Probable pitcher Grove for the Dodgers has had a very tough year with an injury, a rehab assignment and a total of four recalls from the minors.  He just recently got his ERA below 7.00 for the season and although his WHIP has been falling it is still 1.40 so far for July. 

Probable starter Wells for the Orioles has been a bright light for them and has been the picture of consistency with all 7 of his most recent starts having 2 ERs in each.  He does his part day in and day out.  In terms of available bullpen help, the Dodgers have been better than the Orioles of late although the Orioles still hold the edge over the whole season. 

These are two elite teams at the plate over the last 15 days.  The Dodgers are 2nd in OPS and 12th in avg in the majors, while the Orioles are 3rd in OPS and 4th in avg.  The Dodgers are only 22-20 against teams with a winning record while the Orioles are 30-19.  The clincher for me was the comparison of each team’s recent streak.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 against weaker opposition (Mets, Angels and Pirates).  The Orioles have won eight straight vs. much stronger teams (Marlins, Twins and Yankees) and their average margin of victory is 5 runs.  This last stat was the clincher for me that convinced me to recommend you lay the points and go with the Orioles.

Both the Phillies and the Brewers have been hot lately.  But probable pitcher Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts (6 and 7 earned runs against) and by at least three of the current Phillies’ batters .  In his last 47 AB, Harper alone has 9 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB and a .404 avg against Teheran.  Harper is not the MVP he once was but he is having a fine year as he is 2nd on the Phillies in avg. and tops in OPS. 

Probable starter Nola for the Phillies has won his last two starts vs. Teheran and is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. Milwaukee.  Nola is also 9th in the majors with 120 SO.

Both bullpens have been solid with the Brewers being a little stronger, but the damage should be done before the Brewers’ relievers can step in.  Lay the points and take the Phillies. 

The Marlins were swept by the Orioles, but are a good bet for a bounce back against the Cardinals on Monday.  They are .500 on the road, but 13-6 when Luzardo is on the mound  The left hander has been dominant since mid-June.  He has thrown 6 innings in all three of his last starts, with a pair of shutouts and a two run effort to show.  He gets a ton of strikeouts and shut out the Cards just two weeks ago. Mikolas has had his struggles this year, including a 6.07 ERA in June.  He has looked much better in his last two outings with  seven inning and  rain-delayed three inning shutouts.  Mikolas is pitching on short rest which doesn't always bode well for a starter.  The Cards are 2-1 since the break, but struggle in home games (18-26) and against left handers (9-13) this year.  They are top five in offense (.296 BA, .853 OPS) last 15 days, but their bullpen is not doing them any favors, and they are very poor (17-30) when playing over .500 teams.  The  no-hit  Marlins are hitting for more average and power than usual lately, and have the better bullpen. I like Luzardo and the Marlins' chances.  Play Miami, a slight underdog, to win.

The Twins have racked up a pair of victories in their road series vs Oakland.  They will send out Joe Ryan for the sweep today. Unfortunately Ryan has been very uneven lately, with three of his last five starts of the outright poor variety.  In spit of ten Ks in his last appearance, he gave up five runs in four+ innings. The A's send out young lefty JP Sears, who is much better than his record would suggest.  He has pitched well in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA, including twelve+ innings of one run ball in his last two appearances.
The Twins problems this year are road games, where they are three games under .500, and left-handed pitching (.221 BA).  While the A's bullpen has struggled to a 6.04 ERA L10 games, the Twins' pen hasn't been all that much better at 4.91.  The A's have one of the poorest offenses in the league, but if there is any hope for optimism, it is that they have managed eleven runs against the Twins staff in this series.
Seven of ten of Sears last starts have been either wins or decided by one run. With Ryan struggling of late, I like the A's to keep this game close.  Take the A's on the run line today.

The Royals squandered a pair of fine starting pitching performances on Saturday, losing both sides of a double header in the late innings.  Singer will start for KC.  His last two starts typify his season.  He had probably his best performance against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, allowing just a run over 7 innings pitched, but followed up with a 6 run 5 inning appearance against the Guardians. With more poor starts than quality ones, you really don't know what you will get from him.  Singer has struggled in the early innings and in day games.  Whether he pitches well or poorly, the Royals pen is not dependable, allowing 7 runs from the 7th on in Saturday's double header.  The Rays' pen allowed 0 runs in the same time frame on Saturday.
Zach Efflin starts for Tampa. The Rays signed Efflin long term this season, and it has certainly paid off.  He has allowed just 2+ runs on average and 6+ innings per start in his last 5 starts. Efflin beat the Royals in June, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings, including a rare pair of HRs, the only ones he gave up in June.  The Rays are tough on right-handers, and while the offense ran into some trouble before the break, they appear to be on the mend now. The Royals struggle at home, against right handers, and have been one of the very poorest offenses in baseball this year.  Take the Rays to win on the run line again. 

The Rays were on a very rare 1-7 plod before the break, getting short and poor outings from their starters, taxing their overworked bullpen. Add to that, an offense that scored just 1 run in 4 of 6 of their last games.  The Break couldn't have come at a better time.   The Royals are among the cellar dwellers in offense, overall pitching and bullpen results and a lamentable 13-31 at home.  Just what the doctor ordered for the Rays to step out of their funk.  Glasnow starts for Tampa.  He last faced the Royals in July, holding them to a single run with 12 strikeouts.  He will face Royals rookie right-hander Marsh, who has just 2 starts under his belt, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings. The Rays are not the team you want to face for that critical third start. 

Tampa is a heavy favorite, even on the run line, but still a worthwhile bet.  Look for a HUGE game from Glasnow and the Rays and pay the points.

The Red Sox were 7-1 in early July.  Let's see if they can keep it going against the Cubs on Friday.  Young right-hander Bello has had an outstanding May and June, throwing for distance (7 innings on average L5 starts) and allowing 2 or less in 5 straight games.  No surprise, he is even better away from Fenway. He'll face Cubs righty Hendricks, who has had a 3.86 ERA in the 9 starts since returning from the IL.  He gave up 10 hits against the Yankees in his last start, but held the opposition to just 10 runs in the previous 6 starts.  Both pens will be well rested and are pretty evenly matched for the season.  The Sox have the edge in offense at the moment, are 3rd in OPS L15 games, with a very healthy 6.0/3.9 runs for/against.  The Cubs will be missing Swanson, and are hitting just .237/.667 in their last 15 games.  The Sox have some hot bats this season but no Cub has stepped up.

Bello has been my go-to starter lately. Nothing wrong with Kendricks, but  the Sox have a real edge on offense and hit right handed pitching well.  Take Boston to win on the road.

The Rangers stumbled to 3-7 over their last 10 games before the break.  They are still Top 6 in OPS over the last 2 weeks but are 27th in pitching over the same stretch.  Rangers' righty Jon Gray has lost three straight, and 3 of his last 4 starts have been of the poor variety.  He was hit very hard (.360 BA) by the Red Sox in his last start.  He is up against a very fine right hander in Cleveland's Civale, who has averaged 6+ innings pitched and given up 7 runs total in his last 4 starts.  He has an 0.69 ERA with 0 walks in 2 starts in July.  He will likely pitch longer than Gray and the Guardians have the better bullpen, but everyone's pen should be rested and ready to go.  Cleveland has been hitting much better, for average at least.  They are 6-3 in July, 8th in BA over the last two weeks.  I like the Guardians chances on Friday.  While Texas is power hitting side, it remains to be seen if they will continue to struggle.  As good as they have been this year, they are just .500 as a home favorite.  Take the Guardians, behind Civale's pitching to keep this one close.  Take Cleveland on the Run line at +1 1/2.

A pair of 4-6 teams meet up for the tie-breaker when the White Sox' RH Giolito squares off with Cards' lefty Steve Matz.  Giolito has been a bright spot in the Sox' rotation, consistently delivering 6 or more innings on average.  He had an ERA of 2.32 in June, and held the Jays to just 4 hits over 6 innings his last time out.  Matz is a different story.  He has been used in long relief with good success (1.64 ERA in June) after struggling as a starter this year, although he gave up a pair of runs in 2+ innings in his last appearance.  As a starter, he was hit very hard, especially in the first inning (10+ ERA).  He has also struggled in away games.  I don't expect many innings from Matz today and there-in lies the problem.  In spite of their strong relief effort yesterday, the Cards' pen has struggled on average, with an ugly 7.71 ERA over their last ten games. not that the Sox relievers are great, but Giolito should give them respectable length, seeing limited Chicago bullpen time.

Statistically St. Louis has the better offense, but the Sox have been hitting left-handed pitchers very well in their last ten games.  Look for them to take a lead early and hold it for the win today.

The Rangers and Nats split the first two games of their Washington interleague series, but I like the Rangers chances in the tie breaker on Sunday.  Rangers' right hander Dunning (8-1, 2.69 ERA) has been sharp and consistent since day one.  He gave up just five runs in June.  In his last three starts he has averaged seven innings pitched with a 2.08 ERA.  He will face aging and long suffering lefty Patrick Corbin (5-10, 6.88 ERA).  He is a workhorse for innings and can have an occasional quality start.  Corbin shut out the Mariners over five innings, but sandwiched  that start with a pair of very rough innings. The rough starts are unfortunately more of the norm; he was hit at a .322 clip in June.
The Rangers are slumping, but hitting has not been the cause.  They are 2nd in the league in OPS/L15 games and love hitting lefties (298 BA, .847 OPS) this season. The Nationals are averaging just 3.3 runs scored while giving up 7.9 over their last seven games.  The Rangers pen is no great shakes, but the Nats' is even worse.  Dunning and the Rangers are a very large favorite, but a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take the Rangers to walk away with this one.

The 7-0 Mets are starting to fulfill their potential in all categories including starting and relief pitching.  This includes lefty Peterson, who has pitched well in his two games back from an extended visit to the minors.  While not pitching past the fifth, he has allowed just a single run over ten innings in those two appearances.  While the jury is still out, it appears he has re-found some of last year's form.  He'll face another left hander, Blake Snell, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.64 in his last seven games, with two shutouts in his last three starts.  
The Mets' bats, lead by Lindor and Pham are leading the league in slugging and OPS over the last seven games. The Padres are also hitting well, putting up 6.9 runs per game over their last seven games.  The bullpens could be the difference today. With the length the Mets have been getting from their other starters, the pen is well rested and very sharp, with a minuscule ERA of 1.25 L3 games.  Not so the Padres, whose bullpen has a hefty 7.88 ERA L10 games.
We saw the Padres lose badly to the Pirates in spite of 6 innings of 2 run pitching in Snell's second-last start.  Look for the Padres to lead early based on Snell's fine pitching, but I do like the Mets to gain back ground in the later innings and keep this game close.  Take NY on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Jays have won four straight games, thumping the Tigers on Friday.  Detroit will try and even the series, sending out right hander Matt Manning.  With just  two starts under his belt since a long stay on the IL, Manning has given up 6 runs in 10+ innings since returning.  The Tigers will need innings from him on Saturday; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.75 ERA/L10 games.  Gausman starts for the Jays.  The All-Star has pitched well this season with very infrequent poor starts.  He had a 2.97 ERA in June, putting up 50 K's and allowed just 2 runs in his last start.  The Jays have been getting reasonable success from the pen of late.

The Jays have won four straight games, are top ten in slugging over the last 10 games, and are starting to get offense from their big bats, especially Bichette and Guerrero. They are tough on righ t handed pitching.  The Tigers are still scuffling down in the basement at 27th in OPS/ L10 and 28th against right handers this season.  I am wagering on the favored Jays today.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

The 1st place Braves and Rays don't face each other very often.  So what have these two teams done lately?  Atlanta is 9-1, and  putting up very impressive numbers with the bats. The 0-5 Rays are in a bit of a slump, managing just 6 runs in their last three games.  Comparing runs for and against, the Braves are a formidable 7.0/2.3 L7 while Tampa Bay is barely breaking even at 5.1/4.9.  Charlie Mortlon starts for Atlanta.  He has 3 wins in his last 3 starts, shutting out the Marlins last time out.  He has been better on the road this season, and while he won't give you much more than 5 innings, he has been a consistent presence in the rotation this year.  Rays' right hander Glasnow (4.50 ERA, 2-2) has pitched relatively well since his return, regularly pitching into the 6th.  He has a ton of strikeouts (23 L2 games) but does give up the long ball.  The Rays have been especially dependent on their bullpen of late, averaging more than 4 innings of use a game but the Braves pen is better rested and for effective lately.

The Braves are a formidable team on the road, and an unlikely spot for the slumping Rays to turn things around.  Take Atlanta to steal this game on the road.

The Guardians took two of three from the Royals in KC at the end of June, outscoring them 19-6.  In their home series opener, they'll send out their impressive rookie Bibee who has certainly been trending in the right direction in his last three games, allowing three runs, then one, then finishing with a shutout, pitching five or more innings in each start.  The Guardians' bullpen is generally very solid, but especially so at home this year.  Their 2.18 ERA is less than half the Royals relievers' road ERA.  The rookie will face the Royals' Lyles (1-11, 6.68 ERA).  Lyles improved in June, finishing with a 5.40 ERA.  He gave up four and three runs in his last two starts, but as his record would suggest, he doesn't get a ton of run or relief support.  He has a very poor road ERA of 8.02 this year.

The 3-7 Royals were just swept by the Twins, are second last in OPS over the last two weeks, and are 12-30 in road games this season.  The Guardians are hitting 40 points higher for average and 70 points higher in OPS over the last two weeks.  Cleveland is a heavy favorite, but a very strong option on the run line.  Take the Guardians at -1.5.

Soroka for the Braves and Quantrill for the Guardians are both just recently back in the majors.  Neither has settled in well yet.  Soroka’s last three starts have resulted in a 6.89 ERA.  Quantrill has been even worse in his last 3, losing them all and getting shelled to the tune of a 15.44 ERA.  His last one, which was his first after his rehab assignment, he lasted 3.1 innings and was shelled for 6 runs.

Chances are both managers will go to their bullpen fairly early which will be tough as they played 10 innings Tuesday night.  The Braves bullpen has had 1.99 ERA in its last 3 and 2.88 ERA in its last 10.  The Guardians (who have a good bullpen) have had a 4.88 ERA in their last 3 and 3.96 in their last 10 so the edge goes to the Braves in this one.

The Braves bats though have been tops in the majors the last 15 days with the #1 OPS and #2 avg while the Guardians have been in the bottom third of the majors for OPS (9th in avg.).

This season the Braves have been 27-12 on the road, 13-3 as a road fav, 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. RHP.  The Guardians have been a modest 20-20 at home this season.  This all adds up to the Braves having no problem covering the spread.

Probable starter Walker has been on fire for the Phillies lately with 5 straight wins with 1 or less earned runs in each outing.  His June ERA and WHIP were 1.50 and 0.89 respectively.  Even without all the other supporting evidence he would be a great pick in this game.  It looks like the Rays will have a bullpen game with Littell starting his second game of the year.  His ERA and WHIP are respectable  (3.63 and 1.07 respectively) but the rest of his bullpen does not compare to the Phillies bullpen over the last 3 games.  The Phillies have a miniscule 1.57 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over that span while the Rays are 3.63 and 1.07 over the same span.

Both teams are hitting in the top third of the majors with the Phillies a few places above the Rays over the last 15 days. 

Some other startling stats are the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. RHP starters on the road, 12-1 in their last 13 road games (including a win over the Rays on Tuesday night) and 20-7 in their last 27 overall.  The Rays are in a bit of a skid lately as they are a mediocre 5-5 in their last 10 and have lost 3 in a row.  Not sure why the Phillies are the underdog in this but I won’t complain.  Jump on this pick quick and take the Phillies on the money line.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

Probable starter, 41 year old Wainwright for the Cards has been looking like his nickname (Uncle Charlie) out there lately.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 3.7 IP, 1.3 SO and 5.3 earned runs against.  In June his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 9.00 and 2.23 respectively.  Marlins’ Luzardo’s June ERA and WHIP of 0.93 and .673 respectively are in sharp contrast to Wainwright’s numbers.  Those are pretty extreme numbers at either end of the continuum for both pitchers.  This could be the end of the road for Wainwright. 

With Wainwright getting pulled so early lately, that is a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has struggled to a n 8.27 ERA in its last 5 games.  The Marlins’ bullpen has been better as of late and so should be able to carry Lazardo’s start across the finish line if needs be. 

Both teams have been in the top ¼ of the majors in hitting stats lately but clearly the Cards will have a tougher go against Luzardo than the Marlins will against Wainwright.  The Marlins should easily cover the spread on this one.

The 0-3 Marlins were embarrassed by the Braves on the road, but were very good in previous action, winning 6 of 7 games.  They allowed an average of just 2 runs per game over that stretch.  They are 25-16 at home, facing a Cards team that are 5 games below .500 on the road.  Cards' right-hander Mikolas has an ERA of  over 6.00 in his last three appearances, with more poor than quality starts in June.  Mikolas gives up more hits than one would care to see; opposing batters hit .325 against him last month  He will face Miami starter Garrett Braxton, one of the better young lefties in June.  He has given up just 4 runs in 4 appearances, with a very fine 13-1 K to walk ratio.
The Cards offense has picked up, but they are giving up a pretty hefty surplus in runs allowed to runs scored/L7 games.  Miami can't claim the same level of offense, but they are hitting well for average over the last two weeks, and give up 3 less runs-allowed per game/L7 compared to St Louis.Garrett is a fine pitcher of late and also gets run support. The Marlins have won the last 7 of Garrett's starts, scoring 5 or more runs in all but a single game. Take Miami to play with a little more urgency after being swept. Take the Marlins to win. 10*!

The Cubs and Guardians split the firsts two games of their Chicago series.  The 6-4 Guardians are playing better lately.  Their pitching has seldom been in question this year, but the offense has perked up, climbing all the way to seventh in OPS lately.  They are hitting right-handers at a nearly .300 clip in their last ten games.  In spite of the ten-spot they put up on Friday, the Cubs offense is only average lately.  Here is an odd stat.  Chicago is a very poor 2-11 on Sundays while the Guardians are 9-5.

Taillon has struggled this year with just one quality start in June and a 5.60 ERA for the month.  He has been particularly poor at home to date, and struggles after the fourth inning.  Civale's (3.18 ERA) last start was his worst, giving up three runs in the sixth inning, but has otherwise been very dependable since his return at the beginning of June.  In an admittedly small sample size, he has been very strong on the road this year. Both teams have very good bullpens at the moment.

I like the Guardians' chances today.  While they aren't the best road team, they have a definite step-up in starters, and have been tough on any right-handed pitching, let alone one that has struggled.  Take Cleveland to win.

The Marlins were on a five game winning streak before being rudely interrupted by the Braves.  While the Braves have owned the Marlins in the past, I believe Miami will bounce back from Friday's miserable loss with a much better effort.  The Braves have not yet faced Miami's secret weapon, Euly Perez.  He hasn't allowed a run in three starts and had a 0.32 ERA.  Is he due for a stumble?  Even against the hard-hitting Braves, I don't think so.  39 year old veteran Charlie Morton, starts for the Braves.  He has been a good dependable starter for the Braves, consistently delivering five innings, and allowing about three runs per start.  The Braves have a solid bull pen at the moment.
Other than Friday's shelling, the Marlins hadn't allowed more than two runs in five straight games.  They have some offensive upside at least in BA lately. Perez has delivered 6 innings in his last starts.  I think the Marlins, a significant underdog, will get their backs up and will stick around in this game.  Take Miami on the run line at +1.5. 10*!

Severino shut out the hard-hitting Rangers over five innings in his last appearance.  That's a fine start and a better start in his last two, possibly a sign of his return to form.  He has only seven starts this year, spending a ton of time on the IL, so he is a good bet to finish the season well. He'll face Cards' starter Jack Flaherty who has now struggled badly in two straight starts.  He has pitched well at times this season, but has an ERA for May and June of over 5.00, and has an opposing BA of over .300 in the last two months.  
The 6-4 Yankees appear to be righting their ship.  They  won their last two series and are making their way up the the offensive ladder after dwelling in the cellar for some time. The NY bullpen is now back in form with a recent ERA approximately half of the Cards' relievers. Meanwhile the Cards are still struggling.  Their home record is absolutely awful this year.  They were pummeled in their last two games, and are still hitting well below average of late.  I'm wagering on Severino and the Yankees, both on the upswing, to win on Friday.

The Cubs have lost 4 straight immediately after winning 4 straight.  They are favored vs Cleveland on Friday, and are very good as a home favorite this year.  They are, as usual, a perplexing team, but with left hander Steele on the mound, a win is certainly not out of the question. Steele has had a very solid year, and has looked sharp in his two games back from the IL.  he has a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts and has been especially good at home this season.  Chicago is getting great support from their bullpen, even outstripping the Guardians' relievers in recent action.

The Guardians will start righty Quantrill fresh off the IL himself.  His season has been marred by significant injury and substandard pitching, so he is very much in a "show me" situation.  In spite of Clevelands' recent hitting surge, the Cubs have the superior offense this season.  Cleveland has been very poor in interleague match ups and has limited experience against Steele.  I'll take the lefty and the sluggin' Cubs to win at home.

The 5-2 Dodgers are starting to hit better and are winning a few games.  The Rockies are struggling at 3-7.  The Rockies Anderson had a  surprisingly strong May, but based on his track record, you had to believe that it wasn't going to last.  Sure enough in his last two starts, he tumbled down the stairs, giving up 16 runs in 5+ innings.  He has allowed 10 dingers this month, not a good look for a Rockies pitcher.  The Colorado bullpen has been very poor (7.00 ERA) lately, so don't look for solace there. 

One thing the Dodgers can do is hit the long ball. They will start rookie Sheehan, who has started his career in a very positive way.  It is a small sample size so far but we will see how he fares in Coors Field today.  The Dodgers' bull pen is not the dominant one of old, but at leAst is better than  the Rockies'.  I'm wagering on Sheehan and the long ball today.  Take the Dodgers to win on the run line at - i 1/2.

The Mets, just 7-17 in June, face the light-hitting Brewers for the series tie-breaker.  With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets are a large favorite.  Scherzer's last two starts have been vintage Max, but he has been uneven this season.  Houser starts for the Brewers.  he has started just two games in June, for a total, including relief efforts, of just 16 innings this month.  While Houser hasn't pitched poorly, I still think that we can expect to see plenty of the Brewers' bullpen. Relief pitching has been their forte this season and especially lately.  Neither team is hitting well, 25th and 26th in OPS in recent days.  The Mets' bullpen is still struggling with an ERA over 5.00 of late.
Considering the Mets very humble results lately I don't really buy today's odds.  The Brewers have good success vs right-handed pitching.  The Mets are very poor against teams above .500.  Take the Brew crew on the run line at +1.5. 9 *!

39 year old Greinke has pitched well at times for the Royals this year, but has struggled in June.  His starts are 5 innings or under and his ERA is at a very poor 9.00 ERA for the month.  Even when Grienke does pitch well, he can't seem to win a game as the Royals' relief pitching ERA hovers around the 5.00 mark.  Not to mention the Royals are 28th in the league in OPS for the season. 

The Guardians' right-hander Bieber is off a pair of poor outings but is a likely candidate for bouncing back on Thursday.  While he has been uneven this season, he'll throw longer than Greinke and with far more upside.  The Guardians' bullpen is, as usual, very sharp.  They are 7-3 as a road favorite, and hitting right-handers more than 50 points higher than KC.  The Royals still struggle  at home, just 10-29 in Kansas City this season.  I am wagering on Bieber and the Guardians to win on Thursday.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable starters Giolito for the White Sox and Barria for the Angels have been hot lately.  The biggest difference is that Barria’s Angels have scored almost 100 more runs than the White Sox have.  And the Angels are on fire lately as over the last 15 days they have been top 5 in the majors in avg and OPS.  The White Sox, over the same time period, have been hitting in the bottom quarter of the majors in avg. and OPS.  In their last 10 vs. RHP the Angels have averaged 6.75 runs/9, while the White Sox have averaged ½ of that number.

Add to that the Angels’ 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts and their 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts on grass and you start to understand the validity of this play.  Go with Barria and the Angels on the Money Line.

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers.  Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad.  He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less.  If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10. 

On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan.  He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that.  His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support.

In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period.  The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors.  On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties.  In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game.  Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread.  It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

The Pirates evened the series with the Marlins last night, but might struggle to generate enough offense today.  They are dead last in the league in both BA and OPS over the last 7 games.  Just 7-13 in June, they are also well below par vs right handers.  They will face a rookie phenom, Euly Perez, who has been absolutely terrific of late, shutting out the Jays and the Mariners in his last 2 starts, while giving up just a single run over 17 innings. He has enough starts under his belt to not expect a significant drop-off today.  Today's starter for the Pirates, Oviedo has also been effective in June, if he can get out of the first inning unscathed.  He struggles to a 9.00 ERA out of the gate.  Of concern as well is his road record.  He has been less effective, at 1-3, with a 5.08 ERA.
The Marlins aren't a power-hitting team but they have been hitting for very high average (.302 BA L7) of late.  They appear to be a legit contender this year, are 14-7 in June, 9-3 as a home favorite, and strong against right-handed pitching.  They also have the better pen.  I'm wagering on Perez and the Marlins to bounce back and win at home today.

If I had to pick one pitcher to step into the limelight in London, it might be Stroman.  He doesn't lack FOR confidence, and it doesn't hurt that he has won 7 straight games with a sparkling 1.29 ERA.  He has also pitched for length, lasting into the 6th or more in 7 straight as well.  He'll face the Cards' young left-hander Liberatore, who's starts have been short and generally pretty average, with a 6.12 ERA to date.  He has also struggled on the road.  With just 15 appearances, who knows how he will respond to such a showcase event.  Chicago is 12-7 in June, and 13-9 vs left-handers.  They are getting solid offense and excellent overall pitching, resulting in an impressive 6.1/2.3 Runs for/against in their last 10 games.  The Cards have struggled in June and against right-handers of late, breaking even at 5.1/5.1 Runs for and against. Watch for the "Stro show" to win out in London.  Take the Cubs to win Game two.

The 7-3 Red Sox won the opener on the road vs the White Sox on Friday.  Second time around it will be lefty James Paxton vs the Chicago's hard luck veteran Lance Lynn.  Lynn has struggled this year in most starts.  He struck out 16 last time out and still lost.  K's aside, it is earned runs that have been the issue; 12 in 17 innings in June alone.
We have barely seen Paxton in recent years, but it appears that he is both healthy and in good form since returning from the IL. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.33 in June, while holding opposing batters to just .182.  He is no slouch for strikeouts either, with 24 as opposed to 4 walks this month.
The Red Sox are better on offense, and have acceptable relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox do not fare well vs over .500 teams, and for what ever reason are truly awful in home games this year. I'll take Paxton over Lynn at the moment; in most other categories Boston has the edge.  I am seeing "red" again on Saturday.  Boston to win Game two.

The hard hitting Texas Rangers have now won four straight against the Yankees this season, holding them to 2 or less runs in each game.  The Yankees' bats truly are woeful of late, with a .179 BA and a .563 OPS.  They are giving more run than usual as well.  The Rangers are well above .500 on the road and have climbed back to 4th in OPS lately.  Jon Gray gave up 6 runs in under 3 innings last time out, a very rare poor appearance, which is almost universally the case after a complete game performance in his previous start.  Otherwise he has been excellent and consistent; a fine candidate for a bounce back start on Saturday.  Yankees right-hander Severino looked somewhat better in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5 innings, but his appearances have generally been short and poor in June.  The Yankees should have the edge in the bullpen, but they have multiple pitchers on the IL.  Take the Rangers to give the Yankees another kick while they are down.  Take Texas to win again.

After six straight wins, the Red Sox were beaten by the Twins on consecutive days.  Young right-hander Bello starts for Boston on the road on Saturday, hoping to turn things around.  He has been very good since the end of April, and is now pitching for length as well as ERA. He has a 2.70 ERA to date in June.  He'll face veteran White Sox righty Giolito who has been lights out in his last three starts with an even better June ERA of 1.50.  Giolito has been very good at home this season.  The Red Sox are top three in BA and OPS and have a great runs for and against ratio of 7.7/3.3 in the last week.  The White Sox are struggling with the bats, hitting .218, with a .646 OPS.  They are a rough 27th in the league against right-handed pitching.  Boston has the better relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox' relievers are skirting the 6.00 mark in collective ERA for the last ten games. Better hitting, average as compared to below average relief pitching, and a toss up on the mound to start.  I am seeing RED for Friday.  Take Boston to win.

The Reds may be the hottest team in baseball at the moment, but I'll take the Braves in most situations, including Friday's.  Atlanta is a fine road team, with a 14-3 record in June.  They lead the Reds in recent offense, and are considerably better against right-handers.  Cincinnati have been winning big at home lately.  They have also been winning Weaver's recent starts in spite of mostly very poor pitching performances, especially in June when his ERA has ballooned to 10.13.  The Braves are the wrong team to face with the opposition hitting Weaver at a .356 in June. The Reds are just 24-26 vs right handed pitching, and will face a rookie right-hander with a very high upside in Smith-Shawver.  He has pitched well in his first two starts.  Start #3 can be a tough situation, but I still favor him over Weaver.  Both teams have solid bullpens, but I believe this game will be over early, as the Braves get their licks in vs Weaver.  Take the Braves to break the Reds' win streak on the road.

The 0-9 Pirates aren't holding up anyone at the moment.  Their offense appears to have deserted them. They've been shut out in three of their last five games. Their bull pen is floundering big time; 9.00 ERA in their last ten games.  Pirates righty Keller has been given more runs than expected with just one quality start in his last five appearances, and a 5.19 ERA in June.  Miami has won five of their last seven, with fine pitching across the board. Left-hander Braxton Garrett has pitched pretty well all year with just one phenomenally poor start to blacken his card.  He has given up 2 or less runs in six of his last seven appearances.  Miami is a decent home team this year and has had the Pirates number lately, winning four of their last five meetings.  They are a small favorite on Thursday, but considering the Pirates' woeful performances lately, it is a small price to pay for a very solid wager.  Take the Marlins to win at home.

The A's and Guardians have played each other five times this season and four of those games were decided by one run.  Neither team hits lefties especially well, and we will see a pair of young southpaws meeting up in Cleveland today.  Sears is off a bit of a rougher start but has otherwise been very solid for the A's through May and June.  In his last seven starts he has allowed more than two runs just the once while averaging over five innings a start.  Cleveland's left hander Logan Allen started his rookie season very well but has struggled badly in his last two starts.  His June ERA is an unimpressive 7.29.  The bullpen was a weak spot for the A's but has been much better of late.  The Guardians have very reliable relief pitching. 

The A's have lost seven in a row, but six of those again have been by one run.  They have not been quite the pushovers they were for much of the season.  Sears is likely the A's best chance for an outright win, and Allen's recent starts have been a concern.  I am wagering on Oakland to at least keep this game close, although a victory would not surprise me.  Take the A's +1 1/2.

I know the Rays are tough at home but I just couldn’t pass up this matchup with the Orioles probable pitcher Wells as the underdog.  He is on a 3-0 streak and his ERA is a solid 2.89 in June, while his overall WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  His manager thinks he should be getting all-star consideration.  He gets his strikeouts (8 or more in 4 of his last 7 starts) and gives up the long ball but the Rays aren’t a hard-hitting team.  On top of that, the Rays’ bats have cooled as of late (down to 16th in OPS in the last 15 days) while the Orioles are on fire over the last 15 days with the 3rd best avg. and 7th best OPS in the majors.

Probable starter for the Rays, Bradley is only 22 and as such has run hot and cold.  He started as a top rookie in April, went cold in May and has had a .500 record in June.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 4.1 innings pitched, 5.54 ERA and 1.85 WHIP (Wells has 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last 3 starts).  The first two months Bradley averaged 15 total innings pitched and is already at 13 in June so he could be near his limit.  It could spell trouble for him against the Orioles hot bats.

The Rays bullpen has been good if Bradley needs an early exit but they have 5 relievers out right now so that could be problematic for them.

Offensively in their last 10, the Orioles have scored 6.26 runs/9 and had a .308 avg. vs RHP while the Rays have scored 5.09 and had a .285 avg. in their last 10 vs. RHP.   With all of this leaning heavily towards Wells and the Orioles it’s hard not to take the underdog on the Money Line.

The Jays came back Tuesday night after a couple of blow out losses with a solid shutout of the Marlins.  Wednesday’s probable pitcher, reliable veteran Gausman, should continue this trend.  In 4 of his last 5 starts he has given up 1 earned run or less.  The Jays have a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Against the Marlins, apart from the blowout loss on Monday, the Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the Marlins.

Marlins’ probable starter Alcantara has had 5 earned runs against in 2 of his last three starts and his ERA in June is 5.12.

The Marlins have a solid bullpen but have 4 relievers out right now.  The Jays bullpen used 3 of their top men on Tuesday but none threw more than 15 pitches.

Lately the Jays bats have been near the middle of the pack in the majors but the Marlins have been in the bottom ¼ .  Take the Jays for the win on this one.

Everything seems to be tilting towards the Cubs on this one.  Stroman and the Cubs are on streaks and Oviedo and the Pirates are not.  Stroman and the Cubs just beat Oviedo and the Pirates 7-2 on June 15th.  Oviedo only lasted 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. 

The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 3.00 in their last 10.  The Pirates bullpen has been atrocious in their last 10 with an ERA of 9.51 and a WHIP of 2.01. 

At a club level the Cubs scored an average of 6.7 runs in their last 7 while the Pirates have struggled with only 2.7 runs/game.  In their last 7 the Pirates have lost by an average of 4.86 runs.  The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. the Pirates and 4-1 in their last 5 in Pittsburgh.  Overall recently the Cubs are 7-3 while the Pirates are 2-8.  All of these add up to an evening where the Cubs cover the spread and then some. 

Both of the probable starters, Lynch for the Royals and Lorenzen for the Tigers have had their struggles lately but Lynch has been really up against it.  Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts.  His team is on a 1-4 slide while the Tigers are on a 4-1 streak.  The Tigers have averaged 6 runs/9 against LHPs while the Royals have averaged only 3.51 runs/9 vs. RHP. If Lynch struggles early his bullpen has had a 4.71 ERA in their L10.  The Tigers’ bullpen has had a 3.10 ERA.

When it comes to hitting the Tigers have been hot lately with the 6th best OPS in their L7 while the Royals are mired down near the bottom of the majors.  All this adds up to a bucketful of stats that have the Tigers better than 1.5 runs better than the Royals.  These are reasons to expect the Tigers to cover the spread.

The 3-7 Mets travel to meet up with the Astros on Monday.  Both teams are underachieving this year; the Mets more-so I suppose.  They are 16 -23 on the road and very poor when facing an above.500 team.  The Astros, also 3-7, were swept by the Reds, so should be primed for a better effort. Scherzer has struggled in his last three starts.  He still gets his strikeouts but he has been hit at a .333 clip in June.  He'll face another strikeout pitcher in the Astros' young right-hander  Hunter Brown.  Brown has at times been uneven, but is definitely trending in  the right direction this season.  He is giving much needed innings in his appearances.  His last start was a seven inning shutout.

The offenses are average at the moment.  Houston is certainly missing Alvarez.  On "defense" it is no contest.  The Astros are second in  the league in runs allowed, and while their pen struggled on Sunday, that has hardly been the norm. The Mets still have a long list of injured pitchers.  Time was, Scherzer was close to a sure thing, however I'm wagering on the rookie Brown and the home team Astros to win on Monday.

I am wagering on the Red Sox at home in the second game of the double header with NY on Sunday.  Severino has not looked himself in June, struggling to a 10.54 ERA while being hit at a .349 clip this month.  The Green Monster could figure prominently on Sunday if he keeps pitching as he has.  He will face right hander Brayan Bello, who has been very steady in May and June, allowing 3 runs once in that period and 2 or less in his other appearances.  He had a great start against the Yankees in his last outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings.

The Yankees are really missing Judge and are 2nd last in team hitting over the last 15 games, with a .203 BA and .643 OPS.  They are hitting under .200 against right handers lately.  The Red Sox have climbed all the way to fourth in team hitting in the last 7 games. . The Yankees have the edge in relief pitching, but Bello's starts have been getting longer.  Take the Sox to win.

The Mariners lost in the 11th on Saturday, but I like their chances to bounce back on Sunday. Their possible "boy wonder" starts again.  It has been an up and down season for Bryce Miller, starting at a record breaking pace only to tank utterly for two games, then bouncing back last time out with a 6 inning 1 run 1 hit appearance.  I am banking on continued success on Sunday.  He is 3-1, 3.57 ERA at home this year.

He'll face veteran White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn.  Lynn straightened out for 3 games in May but mostly his season has been a major disappointment.  He has given up the pitcher's futility measurement of a run an inning in June.  Lynn has been VERY poor on the road and in day games this year.

The Mariners are just .500 for the year, but they are 17-5 against poorer teams.  The M's have a better offense at the moment, and now that their pen is healthy, stronger relief pitching as well.  The White Sox are just 13-24 on the road this year.  Take the Mariners to win at home on Sunday!

The 8-2 Angels shut out the Royals in game one of the series.  I like their chances in Game two as well.  Most things are going well for the Angels, including the way they hit right handed pitching.  They may get some good hacks against Mayers, a long relief/occasional starter who landed in the bigs in mid May.  He started surprisingly well but then took a nose-dive in June with an 11.25 ERA in 8 innings-pitched.  He'll face another right-hander in the Angels' Canning, who has been very consistent since mid-May, allowing 3 runs or less and averaging 6 innings a start.

The 0-10 Royals are really scuffling this year; poor at home and against RH pitching, with a 2.7/6.1 Runs For/Against ratio in their last 7 games.  The Angels are getting fine work from the bullpen, while the Royals' clocks in at 5.41 L10 games.

With these odds, jump on the Angels!! 10!

Now in his second year, Marlins' lefty Braxton Garrett has some definite up-side.  He has pitched well for extended periods, with rare miscues.  He shut out the White Sox with 9 strikeouts in his last start, and has been very good on the road this year.  He will face rookie Jacob Irving (1-3, 5.81), who has had his issues this year, especially after the 4th inning.  He is just 0-2 with a 7.32 ERA at home.  While Miami is just .500 on the road, the Nats are a very poor home team.  The Marlins are a very fine 10-2 in Washington.  Miami isn't a powerhouse offense, but they put up six runs vs the Nationals last night, and are an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 games.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league this year.  Take Miami's superior pitching to lead the way to victory on the road today.   9 stars!

The Brewers have lost six games in a row. Perhaps right-hander Teheran can help right the ship.  Now 4 starts into a career re-start, he has been masterful, allowing just 4 runs in 23+ innings, while pitching into the 7th in his last two starts.  The Brewers' pen has been below average so a long start would be helpful today.  Hill, the Pirates' ageless lefty has had his moments this year.  He has a 2-0, 1.98 ERA record in June, but also is prone to some poor starts, 3 of them in May alone.  The Pirates will keep him in as long as possible today as the bullpen has been shockingly bad, with an ERA over 12 in their last 5 games.  Neither the Brewers nor the Pirates have hit well lately.  I am looking for another long quality start from Teheran.  Even the light-hitting Brewers should be able to score some runs against the Pirates' floundering relievers.  take the home side to break through today.  Brewers to win.

Two very disappointing teams square off when the Cards' Mikolas duels the Mets' Tylor Megill on Friday. Mikolas struggled last time out but has otherwise been generally consistent.  He was 3-0, with a 1.89 ERA in May.  If Mikolas' last start was poor, Megill's was off the charts bad, allowing 9 runs in just 3+ innings.  He struggled in May as well, with an opposing batters' average of .292.  I like the Cards to get something going after five straight losses.  Their offense has improved lately, and the Mets' bats have disappointed in recent games.  I favor Mikolas as a starter.  The only issue is the Cardinals' stumbling bullpen has been rung up big time lately, with an ERA of 5.64/L10 games.  Not that the Mets' pen has been that much better lately, and NY has not been hitting right-handers as well.  I 'm expecting the Cardinals to flex some offensive muscle against Megill. Take the Cardinals to lead after five innings and hold on for the victory.

Cease has looked back to normal in his last two games, a relief for the White Sox. The Sox have also looked better, winning six of their last ten, although they have struggled recently.  The Dodgers have slowed down in recent games, and are now below .500 L10.  Grove (8.28 ERA) starts on Thursday. He has not impressed this season, giving up 8 ER in 9 innings in his last 2 starts.  His ERA skyrockets after the third inning.  An early exit is unlikely as the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling in recent games, not surprising considering their long list of pitchers on the IL.  The White Sox bullpen has been excellent with an ERA of 2.25 L10 games. I expect the White Sox to show some offense against Grove.  Take the underdog to win or at least keep it close on the road.

The Twins are at home to the 1-9 Tigers today.  They have won four of five games, stand third in runs allowed, and have a fine starter on the mound.  Sonny Gray has yet to give up more than three runs  in thirteen starts this year.  He is particularly tough at home (1.71 ERA) and has given up just one home run to date.  Not that Detroit is know for the long ball.  They are dead last in runs scored this year.  They also have pitching woes, with a combined ERA of 5.94 in their last ten games.

The Tigers lost both ends of a double header on Wednesday.  Add in travel, and you have a very tired team.  Today's Tigers starter lefty Matthew Boyd (5.55 ERA) has had a few good starts but most of them have been similar to his last one, giving up five runs over five innings.  The Twins are heavily and legitimately favored.  While not the hottest offense, they are a very good home team.  I believe they will beat up a demoralized Tigers team today.  Take Minnesota on the run line at -1 1/2.  9 stars!

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Probable pitcher Ober is working on a solid season.  His 2.61 ERA and .97 WHIP are well earned.  He has been in some very low scoring pitching duels.  14 of his last 15 starts have been under totals.  The Brewers probable pitcher Rea is a step below with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  3 of his last 15 starts have seen him leave in the 3rd inning and 6 have been over totals. 

Reas’ bullpen has struggled over the last 10 games with a 6.25 ERA while the Twins’ bullpen has had an ERA of 2.93.  At home the Twins’ bullpen has a 2.93 ERA while the Brewers’ bullpen has a 4.42 ERA on the road.  All this leads to a lot of innings of higher scoring for the Twins.  Expect them to win and cover the spread of -1.5.

Another subway series starts Tuesday.  Both teams have had their struggles lately.  Yankees are 2-3 while the Mets a 1-4 in their last 5.  In their last 10 the Yankees have hit .173 against RHP.  The Mets aren’t much better at .200.  Both are in the bottom half of the majors in avg and OPS.  Star slugger Judge is out for the Yankees and their bullpen which has been great this season has 6 pitchers out with injury.  Both teams can’t lose, so what is going to make the difference Tuesday night. 

Probable pitcher Severino came back in late May from a rehab assignment and has been struggling mightily to find is old form.  The oft injured starter has been uneven at best with an ERA of 8.31 in his last two starts.  The Mets’ veteran Scherzer is having a solid year with 4 of his last 5 starts resulting in 1 earned run or less. 

The Yankees are 1-5 in the last 5 at the Mets’ Citi Field.  Take the Mets to win this one. 

Blue Jays’ probable pitcher Bassitt has been on fire for the last 7 games with a 2.02 ERA and a scintillating .88 WHIP.  All season, except for 3 outliers, his earned runs have been 2 or lower.  In Kremer’s last 7 for the Orioles he has had a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Respectable but not in the same league as Bassitt this last while.  Both bullpens are coming off a night off.  Baltimore’s has looked better for the season but over the last 10 their ERA is 4.15 compared to Toronto’s marginally better 3.76 ERA over the same time period.  Effective reliever Coulombe will miss the game for the Orioles.

The Blue Jays’ bats have been in the top ¼ of the majors for the last 15 days while the Orioles’ have been in the top 1/2 of the majors . 

The Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 starts in Baltimore.  Both teams have been hot lately but it looks like the Orioles are going to cool down for this one.  Take the Blue Jays for the win.

The 3-7 Mariners have pitching woes.  In their last 10 games both starters and relievers have averaged over 6.00 ERA.  Their rookie Miller started his rookie season on a record pace, only to fall completely flat 2 starts ago, allowing 15 runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts.  In picking the M's as a favorite, the odds-makers are clearly expecting a better start from Miller.  I disagree.  The Marlins will run out Luzardo on Monday.  Mostly up and only occasionally off, he has allowed just a single run in 4 of 6 of his last appearances.  He has a massive 86 strikeouts to date, and the Mariners strike out a ton.

The Marlins have been very good at limiting runs of late, allowing 1 or less in 6 of 10 games.  They are also hitting better than usual, creeping up to 11th in OPS in their last 15 games.  Miami isn't know as a strong road team , but most other aspects, I believe they have the advantage at the moment.   Take the road underdog to win for Monday.

The 3-7 Cardinals have struggled in June.  The offense has dropped off, and their relievers have staggered to a 5.40 ERA over the last 10 games.  Cards' lefty Liberatore (1-2, 6.00) has seen limited action and success.  Other than a fine first start to the season, he has been giving up more than a run an inning.   The Giants have been solid on the road and a better than .500 team in June.  They are hitting the ball much better than the Cardinals lately, 5.6 runs a game as compared to 3.3 for St. Louis.  The Giants have hit left-handers at a startling .368 clip lately, and have had fine relief pitching in their last 10 games.  Today's starter Logan shone in May (3-0, 1.30 ERA), but has not been quite as stingy in June.  He gave up 4 runs over 5+ innings at Coors Field last time out.  He is a great candidate to bounce back this time around. Webb is also good a bet for a longer start, having pitched into the 7th on most of his outings this year.  Look for the Cardinals to continue their poor play at home.  The Giants, a slight favorite today, will steal this game on the road. 10*!