The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers have a lot of talent and potential, but I think each will get the hook early on Wednesday night and I believe that'll lead to this total flying over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Jordan Yamamoto (0-0, 9.00 ERA) allowed four runs off six hits, including two dingers, in a fortunate no-decision vs. the O's on Thursday. Last year he was 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA and I think he'll struggle in this difficult matchup. 

The pick: Nate Pearson (0-0, 2.70) gets the call for the Jays and he most recently allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Thursday. Pearson has been decent over his first two MLB starts, but regression at some point does seem imminent. The sample size is simply too small still and I'm unconvinced Pearson can keep up these numbers for much longer. As stated off the top, I look for both pitchers to get the hook early and I look for that to help in seeing this total eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST DESTRUCTION on the OVER Fish/Jays.

The set-up: Enough is enough! The White Sox were picked by many to go deep into the post-season, if not legitimately contend for the World Series, but shoddy starting pitching and lack of production has been the early theme for Chicago. Detroit wasn't supposed to do well at all and it's probably done better than most would have though to this point. But all of that said, I think that the visiting side will step up here and take full advantage of this favorable starting pitching matchup. Chicago goes with Dylan Cease (2-1, 4.05 ERA) who enters off a gem vs. Cleveland on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out four over five scoreless for the victory. 

The pick: The home side counters with the beleagured Matthew Boyd (0-1, 9.20) who allowed seven runs off eight hits with three walks over 4.2 innings vs. the Pirates on Friday. Last year Boyd was a shaky 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and it appears as if his issues are carried over into 2020. I'm banking on Cease being a difference maker here!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: For this pick I'm concentrating solely on the starting pitching in this matchup and in my opinion, Dylan Bundy's current form makes him the correct call here. Mike Fiers (1-0, 5.40 ERA) earned his first win of the year despite allowing four runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings vs. the Rangers on Thrusday. Through 16 frames Fiers has posted just five K's. 

The pick: Bundy (2-1, 2.84) gave up one run off four hits with ten K's in a complete game victory over the Mariners in his last outing. So far the 27-year old has a sharp 25:2 K:BB and I believe he'll be the difference maker for LA in this matchup. I'm laying the short price.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE BEATDOWN on the LA Angels.

The set-up: Both of these starters has been decent and each of these clubs has struggled somewhat with offensive consistency. Despite that though, I think this one sets up as a classic "slug-fest." Jon Lester gets the call for Chicago (1-0, 0.82 ERA) and he's allowed just one run over two starts. If Lester had one weakness last season though it was definitely his play on the road, where he was only 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA. Regression seems imminent for the over-acheiving veteran hurler. 

The pick: The home side counters with Adam Plutko, who makes a spot start here in place of Clevinger, who is placed on the 14 Day Covid list for breaking protocol. Plutko allowed two runs over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Tuesday, but I think that being thrust into the spot-light here is not going to be conducive in registering a decent outing. When you add it up, this number is just a little low, as I look for these two hungry clubs to eclipse sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Cubs/Indians.

The set-up: Washington's game vs. the Orioles was suspended yesterday after the seventh innings, a 5-2 Baltimore win. The Mets were also involved in a very low-scoring affair yesterday, as they beat Miami 4-2 with their ace Jacob deGrom on the mound. While yesterday's games both went "under" for these teams, I think that Monday's contest sets up more as an offensive affair.

The pick: Patrick Corbin allowed three runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a win over these very Mets last Tuesday. Corbin was rock solid last year, but note he had a rather pedestrian 4.48 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18) who was rocked for five runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to these very Nationals last Tuesday. Additionally note that New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing two runs or less in a victory. This number is a little low in my opinion.

This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER on the Nats/Mets.

The set-up: No need to overanalyze this pick, as I think Phillies' ace Aaron Nola is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Nola (0-1, 3.97 ERA) has one terrible start so far and one great one. In his last start he allowed one run off three hits and no walks while striking out 12 over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Yanks on Wednesday. Note that Nola was particularly good in this spot by going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA at home last year. 

The pick: The visitors counter with Sean Newcomb (0-0, 8.22) who allowed two runs off five hits over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Jays on Wednesday. In his previous outing Newcomb allowed six runs over four innings vs. the Mets. Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much steeper.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: The Indians beat the White Sox on Saturday afternoon, but I think the home side will dig deep and find a way to get the job done in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (2-0, 0.00 ERA) who allowed two runs off five hits over 7.2 innings in a win over the Reds on Tuesday. Bieber's been great, but note that the two runs he gae up in his last game were of the "solo dinger" variety. 

The pick: Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.52) gets the call for the home side and he enters off a gem as well, allowing two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Brewers on Tuesday. So far over 12 innings Giolito owns a sharp 15:5 K:BB and note that he was particularly strong in this spot last season by posting a 3.37 ERA in all "night" games. Look for the home side to bounce back here behind a vintage performance from Giolito.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: After yesterday's high-scoring 8-4 Yanks win, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" in the finale of this three game set. James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, who comes off a pair of poor starts to the 2020 campaign. Paxton had surgery in February and it's caused a decrease in velocity on his fast ball, which has led to a pair of poor outings. The veteran should improve with each outing though, as his track and pedigree definitely point to a comeback effort here sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: Charlie Morton (1-1, 8.00) gets the call for the visitors and he comes off his first win of the year, allowing one run off five hits with no walks and five K's over six innings vs. the Reds on Tuesday. After a shaky first outing, Morton definitely returned to the form which saw him go 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA last season. I'm banking on Morton continuing his progression and I absolutely expect Paxton to be much better here. With these two starters battling deep, look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Yanks/Rays.

The set-up: A couple of confirmed "gas cans" go head to head in this NL matchup on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I'm expecting runs to be plentiful. Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 0.00 ERA) went five scoreless in his debut vs. the toothless Tigers last Sunday. DeSclafani was only 3-5 with a 4.28 ERA on the road and I believe he'll struggle here as well in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Brett Anderson (0-0, 6.00) goes for the Brewers and he most recently allowed two runs over three innings to the White Sox on Monday. So far Anderson has struggled with consistency in the early going and all signs point to this trend continuing here. I believe these starters get the hook early and that will ultimately help in contributing to this total flying over sooner, rather than later. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Reds/Brewers.

The set-up: Despite there being no fans in the stands, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Framber Valdez (0-1, 2.53 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and after getting rocked for three runs over four innings in a loss to the Dodgers, Valdez bounced back in his last start to allow one run over six innings of relief vs. the Angels in his last outing. He was an unremarkable 4-7 with a 5.69 ERA last year, including just 1-6 with a ballooned 7.76 ERA in all "night" games. 

The pick: Frankie Montas (1-1, 2.25) counters for the home side and he most recently comes off a commanding 11-1 win over the Mariners, allowing one run off four hits with nine K's over seven innings. Montas was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last year overall and he was particularly tough in all "day" games, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of "great line value." Lay it.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Oakland A's. 

The set-up: Mashairo Tanaka has gotten out to a better start for the Yankees than Blake Snell has had for the Rays. Tanaka is 0-0 with a 3.80 ERA, while Snell is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. The Yanks come off a four-game split with the Phillies, while the Rays stumbled against the Red Sox yesterday. New York is 9-3 and Tampa is 5-7. This is a series that the Rays would have had circled at the start of the year though and we expect them to come to play today. 

The pick: Additionally note that Snell has been at his best vs. New York at home, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts vs. them there. Off their 5-0 home loss to Boston on Wednesday and with an extra day off to prepare and focus, look for TAMPA to come out firing today.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The set-up: Yes, Blake Snell has struggled to start this season a bit, but he's always been at his best vs. the Yankees at home, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts opposed in friendly confines. The problem for Tampa here is that it's offense has been downright terrible, hitting a collective .211 with an on-base percentage of only .303. 

The pick: The Yanks Masahiro Tanaka is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA this year, but note that he's pretty much dominated the Rays throughout his career by going 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 starts opposed, including 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA in his last eight vvs. them. I look for these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Yanks/Rays.

The set-up: The Astros turn to Brandon Bielak (2-0, 1.69 ERA) here and he most recently gave up one run and struck out six over five innings in a win out of the bullpen vs. the Angels. 

The pick: Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.70) gets the nod for the D-Backs after allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Dodgers on Friday. The problem for Gallen here is the lack of production that his team is making right now at the plate. The Astros are raking and I believe they'll get the job done here in this favorable road matchup. Lay it.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: Two veteran pitchers who have been accustomed to success over their careers, but who have struggled somewhat to open this abbreviated season, collide in this AL matchup on Thursday afternoon and suffice it to say, I'm expecting this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Mike Minor (0-2, 5.91 ERA) gets the nod for the Rangers and he most recently got rocked for six runs off nine hits in a loss to the Giants on Friday. Over 10.2 innings of work Minor now has a poor 1.41 WHIP.

The pick: The A's counter with Mike Fiers (0-0, 5.40) who allowed two runs off four hits and one walk over six frames in a no-decision vs. the soft-hitting Mariners on Saturday, also striking out three. Previous to that Fiers was rocked for four runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Angels. These two pitchers have seen better days and I think they'll each "get the hook" early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total over the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rangers/A's.

The set-up: I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian House (0-0, 1.80 ERA) who gave up one run and three walks over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Pirates in his last outing. Houser for the most part has been very consistent for the Brewers the last couple of seasons, but if he had one clear weakness last year it was his play on the road where he was just a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.84 ERA. 

The pick: The ChiSox counter with Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 3.38) who earned a win over the Royals on Friday by allowing two runs over six innings while also striking out seven. Keuchel is the correct call here in my opinion, as I don't trust Houser in this difficult interleague road venue. Lay the price.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: This series shifts from Cincinnati to Cleveland for two more. Despite what happens on Tuesday in Cincinnati, I expect these two starting "studs" to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. Luis Castillo (0-1, 4.50 ERA) has faced the Tigers twice already this year and in one game he was downright filthy and in the other he got shelled. Castillo was 15-8 with 3.40 ERA last year and he was especially dominant on the road by going 7-1 with a 3.88 ERA (also 12-3 with a 3.53 ERA in all "night" games.) 

The pick: Mike Clevinger (0-1, 4.91) is coming off back-to-back tough outings, which is uncharacteristic for the Indians' hard-throwing right-hander. Clevinger was 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA last year and he was particularly awesome at home by going 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA. With these two starters expected to throw deep, I look for this total to stay under.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Reds/Indians.

The set-up: Both teams have plenty of "pop" in their respective lineups, but I believe that these hungry starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries once it's all said and done. Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 1.50 ERA) who comes in extra rested after the Jays' series with the Phillies was postponed over the weekend. Shoemaker looked brilliant in his season debut, holding the Rays to one run off three hits over six frames, and I don't have any reason not to believe that the veteran won't carry that momentum over here as well.

The pick: Max Fried (1-0, 2.31) get the nod for the home side and he was even better than his counterpart in his opener, holding the Rays to one run off three hits while striking out seven over seven innings. These two pitchers already have a similar opponent and each looked brilliant (note as well that Fried was a sharp 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA at home last season as well.) This one has "duel" written all over it. Play the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Braves.

The set-up: Patrick Corbin (0-0, 1.42 ERA) had the weekend off because of the postponed series vs. the Marlins and I think that benefits the defending champs' starter. In his first start Corbin looked fantastic as well, retiring the first 11 Yankees he faced (and five via strikeout), ultimately striking out eight with no walks and just one run over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision.

The pick: Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18) gets the nod for the visitors. Matz allowed three runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Thursday. Matz has been consistently inconsistent with his game-to-game performance though and note that he was particular poor on the road last season, going just 3-8 with a 6.67 ERA. Look for the well rested home side to take advantage and lay this very reasonable price.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: The Mets and Braves conclude their three game series on Monday night and in my opinion, I think the home side has the advantage here in this duel of team "aces." The visitors go with Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.64 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Wednesday. deGrom continues to be the victim of poor run support and with the recent off field issues involving Yoenis Cespidis, things aren't looking any better for this already struggling New York hitting line-up. 

The pick: Mike Soroka (0-0, 1.59) gets the nod for the home side and he'd give up three runs (just two earned) over 5.1 innings while also striking out five in a no-decision vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Note that Soroka was extremely dominant in all "night" games last year as well, going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA. I like Soroka and the Braves to lay the hammer down here.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to the pull the trigger on the hungry underdog side. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who gave up four hits with seven K's over four scoreless frames vs. the Mets in his team debut. It was a great showing and I think the veteran can carry that momentum over here and at the very least, match Masahiro Tanaka inning for inning.

The pick: Tanaka (0-0, 0.00) suffered a concussion in Spring Training after taking a come back liner to the head, but he's now been cleared to go. Tanaka was a mediocre 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA last year, including a sub-par 4-5 with a 5.46 ERA in all "night" contests. Despite what happens on Friday night, I like Godley here to get the better of Tanaka, who I believe comes in "rusty" after his unfortunate injury in Spring training. 

10* SITUATIONAL UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: The Rays "ace" continues to struggle. Blake Snell (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA last year and he'd allow three hits and two walks while striking out five in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. Note that he was particularly ineffective on the road as well last season, going just 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. 

The pick: Alex Cobb (1-0, 1.69) is a late fill in here and while he did well with a victory over the Red Sox on Saturday in his season debut, I still think the book is out on the veteran, who previously hadn't won a game since 2018. Cobb was 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA last year and I think that regression is definitely imminent in this difficult second matchup. I am anticipating that each starter will get chased early which will help tremendously in pushing this total over the number by the end of the night.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rays/Orioles.

The set-up: The White Sox can't be too happy on how they've started, so they'll be extra anxious to here to get untracked vs. the lowly Royals. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who earned a victory vs. the Twins on Saturday, allowing two runs off three hits with zero walks over six innings. There's no reason not to believe that Keuchel won't be able to carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Kris Bubic is 22 years old and he's yet to even throw at the Double A level, but the talent-strapped Royals have little choice but to throw the rookie to the hungry wolves here. Perhaps Bubic will go on to be the greatest pitcher in the history of the game, but I think he'll struggle here in this difficult first matchup. All things considered, a great price.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago White Sox.

The set-up: Is Dylan Bundy the better pitcher in this matchup? I'm not so sure. It was just last week that Shohei Ohtani was favored on the road in Oakland over Mike Fiers despite having not thrown in the majors since 2018. I had a play on the A's then, as I thought the line was way off and that's the case here as for this particular matchup as well. The M's go with Marco Gonzales (0-1, 6.23 ERA) who lost on Opening day to Houston. Gonzales though is 5-1 with a 4.17 ERA in 12 starts vs. the Angels, which includes a sparkling 3-0, 3.12 ERA in six starts in Anaheim. 

The pick: Bundy (1-0, 1.35) gave up one run over six innings in a win over the A's in his opener and while he's enjoyed success vs. the M's in the past, I still think he's over priced here. I look for Gonzales to match Bundy inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I'll definitely jump on the hungry dog. Look for Seattle to build off yesterday's 10-7 victory.

10* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Seattle Mariners.

The set-up: I think the Braves' ace could/should easily be a much bigger in this particular matchup. The Rays turn to Charlie Morton (0-1, 13.50 ERA), who after going 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA last season, struggled mightily in his first start of 2020, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings to the Jays. 

The pick: Mike Soroka (0-0, 0.00) was 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA last year and he dominated in his first start of the year vs. the Mets on Friday, going six scoreless, allowing four hits, no walks and striking out three (note that Soroka was also a sharp 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA in all "night" games last season). I believe Morton's regression is going to be significant over the short-term and I have no reason not to expect Soroka to be able to carry his momentum and confidence over into his first home contest. I'm laying the price.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The White Sox need to wake up and start living up to their expected potential and they'll be eager to bounce back after a listless 4-3 loss yesterday. While that game stayed "under" the number, all signs point to this one finally flying over as the game comes down the stretch in my opinion. Lucas Giolito (0-1, 17.18 ERA) was rocked for seven runs off six hits with three walks over three innings in an opening day loss to the Twins on Friday. Things certainly aren't going to get any easier for Giolito here eitehr facing this 

The pick: Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00) gets the nod for the home side. Last year he was 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA. Plesac did enough in the short spring tune up to get a shot in the rotation, but note that he had a 4.56 ERA in all "night" contests a year ago. I look for these pitchers to get the hook early and I expect these line-ups to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER White Sox/Indians.

The set-up: Despite what happens between these teams on Modnay, I think that Alec Mills is getting little respect in this spot. Mills was 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA last year as a starter. He also posted a 42:11 K:BB over 36 innings (nine appearances.) 

The pick: Tyler Mahle was 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA for the Reds last season and he's being pressed into service out of necessity. Mahle did go four innings last Friday in a scrimmage and he'd allow four runs, including a three run dinger. In this case I love the experience and proven track record that swingman Mills brings in this matchup and I'll gladly back him at this value. 

10* SITUATIONAL UNDERDOG BEST BET on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: Despite what happens on Monday night between these two clubs, I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks on Tuesday night, as I'm not convinced either starter will last long before getting the hook. ATL turns to Kyle Wright, who was 0-3 with an 8.69 ERA last year and who enters having had a mediocre spring tune-up, in which he arrived to the team late. Note that he was particularly poor after the All Star Break last year as well, posting a 13.85 ERA.

The pick: The home side counters with Yonny Chrinos, who was 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA last year. Chirinos though also arrived to camp late due to a positive COVID-19 test. While he's been given the green light, clearly he'll be on a leash and yanked quickly if he starts to run out of gas. I look for these two "gas cans" to exit early and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Braves/Rays.

The set-up: The Jays lost two of three in Tampa to open, including allowing a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the 9th evaporate. Yes, the Nationals are down some men, but I still think the defending champs will find a way to get the job done here once it's all said and done. The Jays hand the ball to Trent Thornton, who was 6-9 with a 4.84 ERA last year and while he had a decent spring, I still think he's in over his head in this difficult road venue.

The pick: The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez, who was 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA last year and who gave up three runs while striking out eight in an instrasquad matchup in his final tuneup. Note as well that he was particularly good in all "night" games last year, going 7-5 with a 3.10 ERA. And finally note that the Nats are 7-2 in their last nine interleague night home games as a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals.

The set-up: I like the A's to battle tough here in the finale of this three-game set. Shohei Ohtani was decent in spring and he won't be restricted here, but note that he did struggle with his command, allowing four walks and five hits over five innings in his final tune-up. 

The pick: Mike Fiers was a consistent bright spot for Oakland last year, going 15-4 with a 3.90 ERA, including going 9-2 with a 2.91 ERA at home. Finally I'll point out that Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -101 to -121 range. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Oakland A's. 

The set-up: The Rays evened up this series with a 4-1 victory last night, but neither side can be too happy yet with how it's performed at the plate in the early going. Tampa had just five hits for the second straight game yesterday. Tampa ace was 0-1 with a 2.51 ERA in three starts vs. the Jays last year.

The pick: Thomas Hatch is expected to make his debut for the Jays this afternoon. Toronto will then make a quick turn around for a series vs. the Washington Nationals. Note as well that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten AL road games after losing and scoring one run or less in the process. Look for these two offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jays/Rays.

The set-up: Both of these AL teams are expected to compete and possibly make the playoffs this season. Each is loaded with talented hitters, but I think that these two studs on the mound will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Jose Berrios gets the nod for the Twins and he was 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Berrios had a great camp and there's no reason not to believe that he can't bring the smoke here on Opening night. 

The pick:Lucas Giolito was 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA last year. In 2018 he was 10-13 with a 6.13 ERA. That's a huge improvement and there's no doubt the White Sox expect him to continue to develop this year as well. Teams don't have the luxury to "get up to speed," everyone needs to hit the ground running and establish something early. I believe these two starting pitchers battle deep and as such, look for this one to stay well below the number once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Twins/White Sox.

The set-up: There's no doubt that Jacbo deGrom is easily one of the best pitchers in the league. Last year he was 11-8 with a 2.43 ERA and in 2018 he was 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom has been given little support by the Mets throughout his career and with many of his sluggers sidelined with injury or other issues to open the 2020 season, I believe that trend of futility gets carried over here. 

The pick: Mike Soroka is the Braves' ace heading into 2020 after finishing 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA last season. Many predict that Atlanta will at the very least earn a Wild Card spot this year and I think it gets off on the right foot here in this favorable matchup. I look for Soroka to match deGrom inning for inning and in a situation like that, I'm taking the under-valued underdog.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: Do or die?! Now or never?! Washington has its back against the wall and I'm not going to give up on it quite yet. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Strasburg has earned a win in four of his last five playoff games, allowing only six runs total in that span.

Verlander has been downright terrible in the postseason, losing three of his last four decisions, most recently getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nats are 6-0 in their last six playoff road games, while the Astros are only 1-4 in their last five interleague home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Verlander's been terrible, while Strasburg has been superb. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 1. With their backs against the wall, I believe that Justin Verlander and the home side come out and deliver an epic response on Game 2. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these staters to win this game, as Stephen Strasburg has been a "rock" for the Nats all season and during the playoffs. This play is based upon the "situation" and some strong ATS trends. The only mission of a visiting team in the start of a playoff series is to earn a "split" over the first two games. Sure Washington would LOVE to win both games, but with that crucial mission indeed accomplished, I think the visitors get caught taking the mental foot off the gas. For Houston though, this is essentially "do or die." 

The pick: Note that Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten road games following a victory by one run or more, while Houston is 7-4 in its last 11 home games after allowing five or more runs in its previous contest. I expect Houston to win, and win big!

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros on the RUN-LINE.

The set-up: Two unbelievable pitchers face a couple of hard-hitting line-ups. Both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have incredible seasonal numbers, in the playoffs and vs. their respective opponents. It wouldn't be difficult to write a play on the "under" based entirely around their stats/numbers. But I think these two starters can still "shine" in this contest, and this total can still eclipse this very low-number. 

The pick: Based primarily around the fact that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at 7 or lower, while Houston has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 17 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. With time to re-focus, I believe it'll be these hard-hitting line-ups which become the main story-lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Nationals/Astros.

The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. 

The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings.

Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions.

The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game.

10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE.

The set-up: Houston lost 7-0 in Game 1, before then rebounding with a 3-2 extra innings effort in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I'm finally expecting a higher-scoring game here. The Astros were 47-26 on the road this year, but they lost both road games to the Rays. Clearly they'll be out to end that trend. Gerrit Cole gets the nod for the visitors, while Louis Severino toes the slab for the home side. 

The pitchers: Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been exceptional this season and so far in the playoffs, but I think he finally takes a step back here. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Yanks. 

Severino (1-1, 1.50) is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" in 35 of its last 60 after two or more consecutive home games, while New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. The Yanks have to be thrilled with the split they earned over the first two games and now they're in the drivers seat. I think this one creeps over this tiny number once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Astros/Yankees.

The set-up: It's Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zack Greinke in the opener of the ALCS and I like the home side to deliver the goods in this one. 

The pitchers: Tanaka was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in the regular season. While he's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last three outings, note that he's 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four career matchups at Minute Maid Park.

Greinke was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA in the regular season. He's 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. He's 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Yanks. Note that Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 13 career starts at home.

The verdict: It's interesting to note that the Astros are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, while the Yanks are only 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. I give Greinke the nod on the bump this evening and in my opinion, that's the difference in Game 1. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: St. Louis posted a 5-2 record vs. the Nats this year. But I think that Washington's Anibal Sanchez is the correct all in this matchup. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Sanchez held the hard-hitting Dodgers to one run over five innings in his team's Game 3 win in the NLDS. Note that over 48.1 innings of playoff work Sanchez has a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

Mikolas conceded just one run over five innings to the Braves in his Game 1 start. Note that he has a 2-2 record and a 4.95 ERA in 26 career innings vs. the Nationals.

The pick: The Nats were 2-1 at Chavez Ravine and I think they continue their success on the road to open this series as well. Addtionally note that St. Louis is a poor 1-5 in its last six vs. right-handed starters, while Washington is a sharp 8-1 in its last nine vs. right-handed starters. I like Sanchez to continue his stellar play and for the surging visitors to pull off the slight upset in Game 1.

10* BONANZA on the Nationals.

The set-up: This has been an entertaining NLCS. Competitive. I believe that the final contest will also prove to be a war until the end. So in a game which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. 

The pitchers: Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) was 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road this year. Note that he's 3-2 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA in five games in the playoffs in his career, which includes going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two games this season. 

Buehler (14-4, 3.26) was 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at home this season and he's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. 

The pick: I think Washington has stolen the momentum in this series. The Nats have the more experirenced hurler on the mound to start this one as well. While the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, in the end I'm grabbing the red hot Nationals on the run line.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Nationals run-line.

The set-up: It's do or die for the Twins as they return home down 0-2. Minnesota was great at home this season and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a game which I envistion being decided late or in extra frames, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side counters with Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA on the road this year. Note that he's 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six postseason starts and he's 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA in two career starts vs. Minnesota.

Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51) is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 starts at home this year. He's 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 18 games vs. the Yanks and this is his first postseason appearance.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a poor 8-10 (-6.3 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Minnesota is 15-6 (+11 units) this season when playing with double revenge with two straight losses vs. an opponent.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins on the RUN-LINE.

The set-up: The Cards took Game 1 by a score of 7-6, before the Braves answered with a 3-0 win in Game 2. Game 1 could have gone either way. Game 2 was decisive from start to finish. Mike Soroka gets the nod for the visitors, while Adam Wainwright gets the call for the home side. 

The pitchers: Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) faced the Cards twice this year and dominated in both games, going seven scoreless in the first and then holding them to two runs over six frames in the second. Note that Soroka was 7-1 with a 1.55 ERA on the road this year as well. 

Wainwright (14-10, 4.19) gave up five runs over four innings in a 10-2 loss (his only matchup this season) to the Braves this year. 

The pick: The Braves average 5.28 RPG this year. The Cardinals average 4.72. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter, while ATL is 20-8 this year following a victory. I  think Soroka and the hard-hitting visiting side a “steal” at this price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The Braves won the season series 4-2, going 2-1 at home and on the road. This is a matchup and a situation which favors the home side and I expect it to step up and deliver the goods. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas, whole the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) is 1-2 with a 2.61 ERA in three career starts vs. Atlanta, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA over his last three starts. 

Keuchel (8-8, 3.75) is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA in two starts vs. the Cardinals and he struggled a bit down the stretch. Overall I’d call these volatile starters a “wash,” but will give Keuchel the slight nod because of the home field advantage. 

The pick: St. Louis is a poor 1-4 in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 7-2 in its last nine at home vs. teams with a winning home record. Atlanta was dominant at home this year and I believe they come out and make a statement to open this series. Lay the short price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The winner of the AL Wildcard plays the Astros in Houston this weekend in the ALDS. Both of these starters come into this game “hot” and I expect each to throw deep. Charlie Morton gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Sean Manaea. 

The pitchers: Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances. Morton appeared in the All Star Game this year. 

Manaea (0-0, 1.21) returned from a 12 month absence due to a torn labrum in September and since then he’s been nearly untouchable, winning both home starts with a 2.13 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa. Morton went 1-0 with a minuscule 0.68 ERA in two starts vs. the A’s this year (note that Morton owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Oakland in his career as well.) This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/A’s.  

The set-up: I’m expecting a decisive victory for the home side in this “one and done” Wild Card game. Both teams were hot down the stretch, but I think the Nationals’ Max Scherzer is the difference maker here. The Brewers counter with Brandon Woodruff to start.

The pitchers: Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) comes in off two strong outings vs. the Pirates and Padres. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Woodruff at this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) enters off a full weeks rest and he owns a tiny 1.03 WHIP this season. 

The pick: Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich is obviously not playing because of an earlier injury. Milwaukee center fielder Lorenzo Cain is also listed as day to day, while slugger Ryan Braun is dealing with a leg issue. The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in 38 years, so clearly they won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note as well that the Nats are 6-0 in their last six vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are only 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Milwaukee comes to town weakened and I believe Washington finally gets the monkey off its back with a resounding victory. Lay the 1.5 runs for the small plus money return.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: Neither starter has done well this year and I believe each will struggle in this match-up as well. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. 

The pitchers: Lopez (5-8, 4.96 ERA) is an atrocious 2-5 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this year. 

Velasquez (7-8, 4.76) was most recently shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians on Sunday.

The pick: The Phillies are out of playoff contention and they’re now just 79-80 on the year. Philadelphia will be hungry to stop its six game slide and I expect a big day at the plate from both teams here, as Miami would love nothing more than to kick the home side while its down. Facing these two suspect starting pitchers, everything definitely points to these line-ups being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Marlins/Phillies.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Tribe hand the ball to Zach Plesac, while the home side goes with Austin Voth. The home side has a chance to ruin Cleveland’s post-season chances, as after dropping two straight games to the White Sox, Cleveland is two games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot with three games remaining. And unfortunately for the Indians, the Nats are just as “hungry” for victories here, as they hold only a one game lead for top spot in the NL Wildcard race. 

The pitchers: Plesac (8-6, 3.82 ERA) most recently was rocked for four runs off five hits over four innings vs. the Phillies in his last outing. 

Voth (1-1, 3.35) has a 2.12 ERA over four games since returning from the IL, posting 19 K’s over 17 frames. 

The pick: Considering all of the above situational factors, I think we’re getting a fantastic price on the home side here and it’s the reason why this play qualifies as one of my signature “PLAY-BOOK” releases.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry hurlers. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede have had poor campaigns, but each will be eager to try and pad their stats with a strong performance while they can. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) comes back from injury and he worked two innings vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. He’s 1-1 vs. San Fran this year and a sharp 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts for his career.

Beede (5-10, 5.23) has been roughed up twice by the Rockies this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home this season (3.99 ERA at home, compared to 6.28 on the road.) 

The pick: This series will conclude the Rockies road campaign. The Giants are paying respects to manager Bruce Bochy before he retires. Yesterday’s contest ended 2-1 and I anticipate another low-scoring affair here. 

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rockies/Giants. 

The set-up: Neither starter will be lacking for motivation today. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede will be equally as “hungry” here, so I’m calling the pitchers a “wash” today. But after yesterday’s extra innings 2-1 victory, I think the home side carries that momentum over into this one. Overall I think it’s a great situational play, as the home side continues to pay tribute to long-time manager Brucy Bochy. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) makes his second start back after an extended time on the IL with a groin issue. He pitched two innings vs. the Dodgers last weekend. 

Beede (5-10, 5.23) gave up six runs over six innings in a 6-0 loss to the Braves on Friday. Beede has been much better at home (3.99 ERA), than on the road (6.28).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is already a terrible 6-15 (-6.7 units) this season revenging a loss where it scored one or less runs, while San Fran is now 32-28 (+4.3 units) this year vs. clubs with losing records. Lay the short price.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: The Phillies have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and I believe they’ll simply “go through the motions” this evening. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Smyly (4-7, 6.44 ERA) has a 5.82 ERA in nine starts since the start of August.

Sanchez (10-8, 3.91) has a 2.37 ERA over his past three starts. 

The pick: Washington has clinched a spot, but it still needs to claim home field advantage. There’s no room for error here. Expect the home side to lay the hammer down vs. the now eliminated Phillies. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Michael Wacha, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly. 

The pitchers: Wacha (6-7, 4.63 ERA) has been decent of late, but note that he’s a terrible 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this season. 

Kelly (12-14, 4.31) has been decent of late as well, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA in his last five day home games.

The pick: While yesterday’s game went well under the number (3-2 D-Backs in extra frames), Wednesday afternoon’s contest definitely sets up as more of a slugfest in my opinion (note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 38 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Arizona has seen the total soar over the number in 18 of its last 28 vs. teams with winning records.) Everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cards/D-Backs.

The set-up: I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound and at the plate than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Julio Teheran toe the slab, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-10, 3.55 ERA) is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Royals, despite a minuscule 0.69 ERA spanning 13 frames of work. 

Duffy (6-6, 4.30) is coming off a strong outing and he’s enjoyed success vs. the Braves in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Braves still have a mathematical shot at catching the Dodgers, so I don’t expect them to let off the gas over this two-game interleague series. Just the opposite in fact. Look for ATL to come in focused on the task at hand and lay the reasonable mid-sized price (note the Royals swept a two-game series in ATL in July, so the Braves also play with revenge here.) 

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak above the posted number. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Noah Syndergaard. Miami won 8-4 last night, pushing the Mets five games behind the Brewers in the wild card race. New York is playing for its playoff life, while the Fish are looking to deliver the final nail in the coffin. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as a “slug-fest.” 

The pitchers: Alcantara (5-14, 4.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for five run over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Wednesday. 

Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22) was most recently shelled for four runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Rockies on Wednesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog of +200 or higher, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 as a -200 favorite or higher. This number is low considering all of the above factors. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER Marlins/Mets.

The set-up: Two competent starters who have had more difficult than expected seasons collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I believe each will work deep into this one. And as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Blake Snell. 

The pitchers: Chacin (3-11, 5.66 ERA) has struggled vs. the Rays throughout his career, but he enters off a decent start and I look for the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

Snell (6-7, 4.19) is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts vs. Boston. 

The pick: The Red Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rays are still in a fight for the Wild card. But in this contest, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Red Sox/Rays.

The set-up: I don’t normally recommend playing a side with a price of this size as one of my top rated 10* selections, unless I unequivocally feel that the situation calls for it. And that’s definitely the case here. The Phillies hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin. 

The pitchers: Eflin (9-12, 4.00 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA lifetime vs. the Nationals, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Corbin (13-7, 3.10) has won three of his past four outings, most recently allowing two runs over six innings while striking out 11 in a victory over St. Louis. In eight career starts vs. Philly he’s 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. 

The pick: This is a huge series for both teams, with Wild card positioning on the line. The Nationals play eight games in seven days which will decide whether they’re hosting the NL Wildcard, or travelling to it. One game at a time obviously. The Phillies are six games out with eight games remaining and come to town off a humbling 10-1 loss in Cleveland just last night. I’m laying the price with confidence. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the home side counters with Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Minor (13-9, 3.33 ERA) has pitched four times in Oakland in his career and he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA. 

Fiers (14-4, 4.09) is 8-1 in Oakland this year, and 12-3 at the Coliseum for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, 17 of 21 games that it’s played on a “Friday” this year (does that matter tonight? Well..it doesn’t hurt!) This number is indeed a bit high in my opinion, play the under.

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/As. 

The set-up: For a number of different reasons I think that Jacob deGrom and the visitors are worth the price of admission vs. Luis Castillo and the Reds. 

The pitchers: deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA) enters on top form, most recently going seven scoreless in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers on Saturday. Over his past 21 starts he’s posted a minuscule 2.09 ERA. 

Castillo (15-6, 3.22) has “righted” the ship after a shaky patch, most recently earning a victory over the D-Backs. 

The pick: New York still has a slim shot at a wild card berth, but every game from here on out is essentially a “must win.” One game at a time though. Note that deGrom is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in five career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo has had success vs. New York in the past, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Mets are a sharp 16-9 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while the Reds are just 11-15 as a home underdog this season.) Lay the price.

10* BLOWOUT SUPER DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. 

The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. 

Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars.

The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers.

The set-up: The Phillies came back and beat the Braves last night, but I like the home side to get the job done on Thursday afternoon. Both teams are equally as “hungry” for victories here. Philadelphia needs victories to stay alive in the race, and ATL is still hunting down the No. 1 spot in the Senior Circuit. But after yesterday’s setback, I think the home side responds. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) is 3-1 vs. the Braves in five starts this year with a 4.06 ERA. 

Soroka (12-4, 2.57) has a 4.82 ERA and no decisions over two games faced vs. the Phillies this year. For arguments sakes, I’m calling the starters a “wash” today.

The pick: Atlanta can win the division pennant with a win today and tomorrow and after dropping the first two of this series, I look for it to take care of the first of those two steps this afternoon. Great price on the home side here in this great situational spot wager.

10* SITUATIONAL STOMPING on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: While neither starter instils a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is too high. These teams went “under” the number last night as well and all signs point to another lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. The offensively challenged visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Duffy (6-6, 4.55 ERA) enters throwing his best of the entire season, off back-to-back gems by allowing just two runs and six hits over 12 frames. 

Bailey (13-8, 4.76) started the season on the Royals roster, and since coming over to Oakland he’s gone 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 1-0 with 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. KC. 

The pick: The A’s have a two game lead over Tampa and 2.5 game lead over Cleveland for the AL Wildcard. Expect these ex-teammates to go deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under KC/As.

The set-up: Both teams are equally “hungry” for a victory, so we can throw the “motivation” factor out the window for this one in my opinion. The difference comes between the starting pitchers and I think we’re getting great value on Max Scherzer in this case. The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Scherzer (10-6, 2.65 ERA) is 2-5 with a 2.95 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Cardinals. 

Wainwright (12-9, 4.00) is 9-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 games vs. the Nationals. He’s been hot of late, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: With last night’s 6-2 win to even this series, the Nats are now only 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Wildcard race. No time to take the foot off the gas here. Washington’s bullpen looked sharp yesterday and I look for it to be a difference maker today as well. Lay the price.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: It wouldn’t be that difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starting pitchers. I believe that Sonny Gray of the Reds and Yu Darvish of the Cubs are a “wash,” here, but I also think that the conditions definitely overall favor the home side. Chicago has won five straight and I look for that momentum to get carried over here. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 2.80 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners on Wednesday. 

Darvish (6-6, 3.97) is enjoying a bounce back campaign this season and he’s 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Reds.

The pick: The Reds are 30-46 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 51-24 at home. Lay the price with confidence.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: While neither starting pitchers instills much confidence, I still believe this number is too high. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller. 

The pitchers: Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs over seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday.

Keller (1-4, 8.29) has clearly struggled in his rookie year, but there’s no question that he’s been much worse on the road (11.14 ERA), than at home (4.16.) 

The pick: Both teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but the numbers point otherwise in this particular interleague contest, as note that Seattle has in fact seen the total dip under in nine of 15 interleague games this season, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total go under in four of five after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high.

*10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER M’s/Pirates.

The set-up: I don’t normally place a top 10* ranking on a play with a line of this size, but in this case I feel that it’s absolutely justified. The visitors hand the ball to  Garrett Richards, while the home side goes with Zach Davies. 

The pitchers: Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) make his first big league appearance since July 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

Davies (9-7, 3.77) is 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA in five career starts vs. the Friars.

The pick: It’s the final 13 games of the season and the Brewers are “peaking” at the right time, returning home to a favorable schedule after a 6-1 road trip. And with a defeat tonight, the Padres are assured a ninth straight losing season. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The set-up: Both teams played to higher-scoring slug-feats on Sunday, but I believe that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The visitors go with Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios. 

The pitchers: Lopez (9-13, 5.35 ERA) is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins.

Berrios (12-8, 3.63) is the difference maker for me here, as he’s 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the White Sox, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four outings this year. 

The pick: Minnesota took two of three from the Indians and with a sweep of the Sox on its final home stand, it can wrap up the division title. I have a hard time seeing Chicago putting many runs on the board today and as a result, look for this total to stay well under the number.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves as my “GOY” on Thursday and while that came up short, I’ve since come back with ATL the last two days and the Braves have indeed delivered the goods. But now I think the value has swung the other way to the desperate home side as it looks to break the slide and avoid the sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the home side counter with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Fried (16-5, 4.02 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Nats. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Fried, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. 

Sanchez (8-8, 4.04) is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts vs. his former team.

The pick: With yesterday’s win the Braves have already punched their ticket to the post-season. Clearly they have bigger aspirations in mind, but there’s also no question that after accomplishing that feat, that this now sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for Atlanta. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. 

10* ABSOLUTE ANNIHILATION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in this AL contest on Sunday afternoon and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors go with Randy Dobnak, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Dobnak (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes a spot start here for Jose Berrios. He’s done decently already vs. the Indians on two occasions this year, but that was then and this is now. I think the rookie takes a predictable step back today in this pressure filled afternoon contest. 

Bieber (14-7, 3.17) is 3-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Bieber, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The pick: Cleveland lost both games of yesterday’s double-header and its bid for a fourth consecutive AL Central title is in jeopardy. The Twins on the other hand are inching closer to their first division title since 2010. In my opinion, this one sets up as a high-scoring “slug-fest” on Sunday afternoon.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the over Twins/Tribe.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a shade low. The visitors go with Robert Dugger, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Dugger (0-2, 4.29 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, having allowed 11 walks in 21 frames of work thus far. 

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.77) most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami earlier in the year. 

The pick: The Giants won 1-0 last night, but I expect much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday (note as well that the numbers back us up, as Miami has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 35 vs. southpaws this season already, while SF has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after shutting out it opponent in its last game. This number is low.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on on the over Marlins/Giants.

The set-up: I had a play on Atlanta in its upset win over Max Scherzer and the Nationals last night and I look for it to get the job done here as well as the Braves continue to try and catch the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Nationals are still looking to lock down a wild card spot, but this is another mismatch in my opinion. The visitors go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side counters with Autin Voth.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz (6-5, 5.00 ERA) makes his eighth start since re-joining the team after a stint in the minors because of poor play. note that since he’s returned he’s gone 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA, including going 2-0 and allowing only one run over 12 innings in September. 

Voth (1-1, 4.00) has allowed four runs off seven hits over ten innings opposed vs. the Braves this year. 

The pick: With last night’s win the Braves magic number is now six games. No time to take the foot off the gas with the “promised land” so close. Great value on the surging visitors here.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up:

The pitchers:

The pick: 

10* UPPER-DECK DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves last night and I think they offer great value to get the job done again here as the visiting side looks to put some final nails into the Phillies’ coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. ATL has to be feeling confident as well in sending Julio Teheran to the hill, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) most recently went six frames and gave up three hits, one run and struck out eight in a 5-4 win over Washington. In his career he’s 9-7 with a 3.71 ERA vs. Philadelphia. 

Smyly (4-6, 6.20) is coming off a decent outing, but note that he’s consistently been at his worst in all “home” situations this year, going just 1-4 with a ballooned 7.44 ERA.

The pick: ATL owns a 9.5 games lead over Washington, but it’s still three games behind the Dodgers for the top mark in the NL. This game means just as much for Atlanta: "This is what you sign up for," Atlanta catcher Brian McCann said. "This is what you love. You get into September baseball and you're close to the finish line. We've done a great job from day one." The Phillies are desperate, but I think Teheran is the difference maker here. I’m laying the short price and expecting a decisive decision. 

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I think this is ultimately a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. Atlanta took the first game of this series, but the Phillies responded with a 6-5 victory in last night’ contest. I look for ATL to respond on Wednesday. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Keuchel (7-5, 3.47 ERA) has allowed only three runs over his last five starts, going 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in that span.

Eflin (8-11, 4.31) is 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA vs. Atlanta this year, allowing 12 earned runs over 5 2/3’s innings opposed. Most recently Eflin allowed six hits and two runs over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Mets. 

The pick: Eflin hasn’t fared well vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA. Despite yesterday’s loss Atlanta has won ten of its last 12 and I expect it to get back on track here in this important game. Lay the short price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular starting matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side counters with veteran Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s had success vs. the Giants throughout his career, but I think that he’s simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81) owns a sub-par 3-5 record in eight regular season starts vs. the Pirates, despite owning a sharp 3.22 EA. 

The pick: This is a “must sweep” home stand for San Francisco if it has any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt. With their ace on the mound, I look for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

10* COACHS CORNER on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight, I’m definitely going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. 

The pitchers: Nova (9-11, 4.48 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Tribe this year (1-1, 2.14 ERA in three outings), but he enters off back-to-back losses and I definitely think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bieber (12-7, 3.27) enters off a loss despite allowing only three runs over seven inning with nine K’s. Note that Bieber has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four career match ups vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Chicago has actually won eight of 14 meetings in the season series this year, so clearly the home side won’t be looking past its opponent today. This one has “blowout” written all over it.

Cleveland Indians -1.5 10* play

The set-up: While neither pitcher instills much confidence, Pittsburgh comes in as one of the hottest teams in the league right now and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller.

The pitchers: Alcantara (4-12, 4.22 ERA) allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Reds in his last outing.

Keller (1-3, 8.62) allowed eight runs over four innings vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday (striking out eight as well.) 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, these teams are moving in opposite direction, with Pittsburgh having won eight of its last ten and the Marlins having dropped 13 of their last 16. Look for these strong trends to continue on Monday night and lay this price with confidence. 

Pittsburgh Pirates 10* play

The set-up: I think that laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the wise way to go in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anthony DeSclfani. 

The pitchers: Smyly (2-6, 6.95 ERA) pitched well for his new team in his first two starts, but over his last five he’s posted a 7.20 ERA. With his team desperate for victories though, I believe that the veteran settles down here and matches pace with his overachieving counterpart.

Desclafani (9-7, 4.05) comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout vs. the Marlins on Wednesday. While he does have a winning record (3-1) vs. the Phillies, his ERA vs. them sits a poor 5.40 in that span.

The pick: Additionally note that Philadelphia is still a sharp 18-11 this season vs. the NL Central, while Cincinnati is just 15-16 vs. southpaws. As mentioned off the top, I like Smyly to match DeSclafani and in a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value swings to the hungry dog.

10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Lucas Giolito is putting together his finest season as a pro for the White Sox, but I still think he’s in over his head here vs. Braves’ veteran Julio Teheran and this locked in Braves home side. 

The pitchers: Giolito (14-7, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a loss to the Twins, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Teheran (8-8, 3.39) enters on top form, having posted 13 consecutive scoreless frames (a tiny 1.92 ERA over his last nine starts.)

The pick: Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. Chicago on the other hand comes in with zero momentum, having lost five straight. I’m laying the very reasonable mid-sized price and expecting a rout. 

10* INTERLEAGUE SMASH-JOB on the ATL Braves.

The set-up: The Giants pulled away for a victory last night and I believe the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi, while the home side counters with Logan Webb.

The pitchers: Lucchesi (9-7, 4.11 ERA) is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts in San Francisco this year.

Webb (1-0, 4.66) makes his home debut tonight. So far he’s won at Arizona, before receiving a no-decision at Oakland. Two tough teams/venues. Now Webb benefits greatly from throwing in friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is a poor 8-10 (-5.1 units) this season as a road favorite of -110 or higher, while San Fran is +11.3 units vs. the division. 

San Francisco Giants 10* play

The set-up: This should be an interesting series. There’s no question that this is an interesting matchup on the mound, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular situation. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia. 

The pitchers: Anderson (10-9, 4.08 ERA) is a poor 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA over his last six starts. 

Sabathia (5-8, 4.99) has endured a difficult campaign, but he’s started to turn the corner of late by pitching seven innings in two starts since returning from a right knee injury.

The pick: Bad news for all teams, Yanks’ slugger Aaron Judge has finally snapped his cold streak, as the big man enters Friday hitting .277 with 18 homers, 42 RBI’s and a .900 OPS overall, but he returns home after going 14 of 39 (.359) with six homers and 11 RBI’s on his team’s most recent road trip. The A’s swept a three-game series from New York at home and revenge is clearly a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: Admittedly Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitching, but in this case I still think that Eduardo Rodriguez and the defending champs are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors counter with the erratic Pete Lambert.

The pitchers: Rodriguez (15-5, 3.72 ERA) has been one of the best in the league over the last few months, going 11-2 with a 3.14 ERA over his last 17 trips to the hill. 

Lambert (2-4, 6.40) has gone 12 starts without a win and Colorado has gone just 2-10 in those games.

The pick: Boston’s disappointing season is coming to a close, but it still took the opener of this two-game series by a score of 10-6. Expect a similar outcome here as well and lay this price with confidence. 

Boston Red Sox 10* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Astros in their complete destruction of the Rays last night and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. Perhaps not so lop-sided this time around though. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Yarbrough, while the home side counters with Gerrit Cole.

The pitchers: Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) has been sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Yarbrough, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Cole (15-5, 2.75) has been brilliant over the last couple of months, going 11-0 with a 1.84 ERA. It’s VERY interesting to note though that he’s 0-2 with a 3.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after a win by five or more runs. This number is a little low.

Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10* play

The set-up: LA fell 4-3 to last night, but I think it’ll bounce back in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Cal Quantrill. 

The pitchers: Buehler (10-3, 3.16 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays, going seven shutout frames and striking out eight in the unfortunate no-decision. 

Quantrill (6-4, 3.32) is 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA since the Mid Summer Classic, but one of his two losses came against these very Dodgers on August 3rd, getting shelled for four runs over four innings.

The pick: Note as well that Buehler is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three career starts vs. the Friars. As good as Quantrill has been this year, I give the nod to the red hot Buehler. Combined with the revenge factor from last night’s loss, it does indeed make this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: True that Padres starter Eric Lauer is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers, but I think he’ll finally have his hands full tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May.

The pitchers: May (1-2, 4.26) faced the Padres on August 2nd at Dodger Stadium and he was shelled for four runs off nine hits over five innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.47 ERA) is 8-15 with a 5.47 ERA career record vs. the rest of the league. Suffice it to say, I believe this lop-sided trend of domination vs. the Dodgers comes to a predictable end here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers have seen the total go over the number in 15 of 19 this year on the road when the total is between 8 and 8.5, while the Padres have seen the total fly over in 21 of 18 this season at home with a total in the 8 or 8.5 range. This number is low, play the over.

LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely makes the Reds the correct call in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez. 

The pitchers: Gray (9-6, 2.92 ERA) is 6-1 with a 1.58 ERA over his past ten starts. 

Lopez (5-5, 4.23) has been out since June 15th because of a shoulder issue and I think he’ll predictably struggle in his first start back. 

The pick: Lopez is also 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one start vs. Cincinnati this season. In three career appearances vs. the Fish, Gray is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: The Yanks won the opener 10-2, but the Dodgers took the second game 2-1. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score as what we saw last night though once it’s all said and done with the Yankees’ Domingo German facing the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) enters off a rare poor performance, allowing six runs over six innings to the A’s. German though has been the model of consistency and clearly there’s no need to hit the panic button after one lousy outing.

Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) owns a 0.90 ERA over 20 innings faced vs. the Yanks (although he doesn’t have a decision yet.) So far all 22 of his starts have been six innings or more, with 19 of them as quality (and note that he hasn’t thrown more than 101 pitches in any outing.) 

The pick: I think German bounces back and there’s also no reason not to think that Kershaw can continue his resurgent season in friendly confines. When you add it all up, it makes this total a little high in my opinion. 

NY Yankees/LA Dodgers UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers have seen better campaigns, as each for the most part has struggled. Colorado won’t be going down without a fight today, but the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor at the end of the day. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela, while the home side goes with Michael Wacha. 

The pitchers: Senzatela (8-7, 6.29 ERA) posted a 17.18 ERA over three July starts, which then saw him land in Triple-A because of it. He’s back today, but clearly he once again finds himself in a difficult spot. 

Wacha (6-6, 5.22) has seemingly started to turn things around, allowing just two runs over his last nine innings of work spanning two starts. 

The pick: After last night’s 6-0 win, St. Louis now holds a 1.5 games lead over the Cubs. Clearly the home side can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here. Lay the price. 

St. Louis Cards 10* play

The set-up: While neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is high. After the Marlins’ 19-11 slug-fest victory yesterday, I think the stage is set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Efin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Marlins.

Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31) struck out a career-high nine batters over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday and he’s 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this year. 

The pick: Note that Philly slugger Bryce Harper remains out of the line-up, as he’s expecting a new child. I think these hungry starters throw deep and I look for this total to indeed sneak under once it’s all said and done.

Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound should make the visitors a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Lance Lynn, while the home side goes with Dylan Cease.

The pitchers: Lynn (14-8, 3.60 ERA) while 0-2 over his last two starts, Lynn sports a tiny 2.65 ERA in that span. 

Cease (2-6, 5.93) started off his career well enough, but he’s since gone 1-6 with a terrible 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Note that Lynn has dominated this matchup throughout his career as well, going 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Chi-Sox. Cease on the other hand has pitched past the fifth frame just twice in his last six starts. Lay the mid sized price and expect a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers.

The set-up: The Mets have rolled to victory in the first two games of this series and I believe the home side will once again find a way to get the job done here in what shapes up to be another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The sliding AL visiting side hands the ball to Aaron Civale, while the NL home side counters with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Civale (1-2, 1.50 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Yanks on Friday. Civale has been good in his limited time, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this difficult road venue tonight.

Syndergaard (8-6, 3.86) gave up two runs while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Friday. It was his seventh quality start since the All Star break, a span in which he’s posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 50:12 K:BB over 48.1 frames. 

The pick: Cleveland’s “desperate,” but it continues to get shaky starting pitching and it’s line-up continues to struggle at the plate. And I don’t see those trends changing vs. the red hot Mets. All things considered, this is an awesome price. Lay it.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee is desperate, but the Cardinals’ momentum is for real right now in my opinion and i believe the home side executes the series sweep tonight. The visitors go with Adrian Houser, while the home side turns to veteran Adam Wainwright.

The pitchers: Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) enters off a song start vs. the Nationals on Friday, allowing just one run over seven innings. Note though that he’s 0-1 with a 6.53 ERA in three career appearances vs. St. Louis. 

Wainwright (9-8, 4.33) has to be feeling confident here as he’s 16-8 with a 2.33 ERA in 39 career appearances vs. Milwaukee. 

The pick: Note as well that Houser is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 17 outings as a reliever this year and only 1-5 with a 5.28 ERA in ten starts. This is a great price. Lay it with confidence.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams, despite not playing in the same League. The Indians though have a big advantage on the mound and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in the visitors favor tonight. Cleveland sees Shane Bieber take the hill, while the home side goes with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Bieber (12-5, 3.27 ERA) comes in off a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Wednesday, allowing two earned runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings. 

Matz (7-7, 4.33) who has looked better of late, but who is still only 5-5 with a 4.86 ERA in all “night” games. 

The pick: The Mets have been cursing of late, winning 18 of their last 23, but their schedule gets much tougher moving forward. Note that Bieber has allowed just eight earned runs over his last 38 innings while posting a 44:5 K:BB in that span. Matz has been better at home than on the road this season, but I still think he’s in over his head in this one. Lay the price.

10* DESTRUCTION

The set-up: While Ivan Nova hasn’t had a great overall season for the White Sox, he’s been a bit better of late. Kyle Gibson though is a big reason why his team will be in the postseason this year. Admittedly neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but I still believe this number is high.

The pitchers: Nova (8-9, 4.51 ERA) has actually won four of his last five stars and he enters off a 4-1 complete-game effort over the hard-hitting Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one unearned run. Over his last two starts Nova has conceded nine hits, three walks and an unearned run. 

Gibson (11-5, 4.28) gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. 

The pick: Note that Nova is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Twins as well, while Gibson is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the White Sox. Expect these two hungry starters to battle deep.

10* TOTAL OF WEEK on under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: Trevor Bauer threw a gem in his first start for his new team, but he was then blown up for one of his worst starts of his career last time out. Erik Lauer has had an up and down season for the Padres as well and he’s been especially poor on the road. I think that Bauer can bounce back here and I believe that Lauer’s road issues continue in this difficult venue.

The pitchers: Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) gave up three runs to the Rays on Tuesday and overall he’s just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA on the road.

Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gave up nine runs over four innings in a 17-7 blowout loss to the Nationals in his last start. 

The pick: This is a big game for the Reds, who come in having lost six of their last eight. San Diego is still without the services of slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. as well, still sidelined with injury. After back-to-back poor outings, I believe that Bauer gets back on track at home. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: I think this is a starting match-up on the mound that heavily favors the visitors. The Twins see Jose Berrios toe the slab, while the home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado.

The pitchers: Berrios (10-6, 3.29 ERA) is 2-4 over his last 11 starts, but he enters off a decent outing, giving up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Sunday. 

Jurado (6-8, 5.31) enters off a 19-4 loss to the Jays on Monday, allowing 11 hits and eight runs over three innings. 

The pick: Minnesota’s won the first two games of this series, 13-6 on Thursday and 4-3 last night. Normally I would consider this a “letdown” spot, but with just a few weeks left in the regular season, the Twins lead over the Tribe is only 1.5 games. Expect the hard-hitting visiting side to keep the foot on the gas.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams face off against two hungry starters and in my opinion, it’s going to be these capable hurlers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side goes with Julio Teheran.

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) has faced the Braves twice and he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs and struck out nine over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday.

Teheran (7-7, 3.35) enters on top form, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Atlanta has won the first two games of this series and all signs point to a battle in the finale as well. This number is high, play the under.

Atlanta Braves/NY Mets UNDER 10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Cubs last night, but I like the visitors to respond on Thursday to avoid the series sweep. Chicago hands the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side goes with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Darvish (4-6, 4.43 ERA) comes in off a shaky outing vs. the Reds, allowing four runs over seven innings, but overall he’s been solid of late, posing 53 K’s over his last 41 2/3’s innings of work. 

Smyly (2-6, 6.96) is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts for the Phillies and this’ll be the first time he’s ever faced the Cubs in his six year career. 

The pick: Note that Philadelphia’s back-to-back wins to open this series are its first back-to-back victories since July 28th-30th. I like the “hungrier” team to get the job done at the end of the night.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has gotten out to a decent start for his new team, but I think he’s in over his head in the Nation’s capital vs. Washington ace Stephen Strasburg. All things considered, I feel this is an extremely good price.

The pitchers: Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. 

Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) most recently allowed three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets last week. Overall he’s 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

The pick: Washington won 3-1 yesterday, which was its sixth win in its last eighth. The Nationals got a bit boost to their line-up yesterday with Juan Soto and Brian Dozier, who each smacked a solo home run. I think Bauer takes a small step back in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

Washington Nationals 10* play

The set-up: Pittsburgh pulled off the upset last night after the Angels returned home from a 2-5 road trip, but I think the home side will bounce back in quick order on Tuesday. The Pirates turn to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday (overall Williams is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA over his past five outings.) 

Canning (4-6, 4.76) returns from a short stint on the IL, but previous to that he held the Tigers scoreless over seven frames on July 30th. 

The pick: Last night’s win was just the Pirates fifth in their last 29 games. Expect the now desperate home side to come in focused and to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. Lay the price.

LA Angels 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent level between the starting pitchers this evening, I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. Boston goes with ace Chris Sale, while Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger. 

The pitchers: Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) enters on top form, having struck out 13 over eight scoreless in a win over the Angels on Thursday. 

Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday.

The pick: Boston will essentially have to run the table now at any shot of defending its crown. One game at a time I guess. But after last night’s 6-5 Indians win, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a “duel” this evening. This number is a little high. 

Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Cincinnati lost 6-3 to the Reds on Sunday afternoon, while Washington pulled away for a 7-4 victory at the Mets. For a number of different reasons though, I think that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani, while the home side goes with Erik Fedde.

The pitchers: DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Previous to that start though he’d allowed three or fewer earned runs over a seven outing stretch (note that he’s a solid 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in all night games.) 

Fedde (2-2, 4.20) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Giants last Monday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here, going six scoreless vs. the Giants. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between 10 and 10.5, while the Nationals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten home games when the total falls in the same range. This number is high.

Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals UNDER 10* play