The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all “night” games.

Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he’s 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in “home” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray, while the home side goes with Rich Hill.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA. After going 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, 2018 has been a grind for Ray. He’s coming off a decent outing against the light-hitting Reds on Saturday, but note that he’s still owns a poor 5.57 ERA in all “night” games.

Hill is so far 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA. The veteran comes in off back-to-back gems, posting a tiny 1.38 EA over his last 30 frames of work. Hill has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as note that he’s 6-3 with a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all night games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is now 7-3 in its last ten night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -175 range. I like Hill to continue his end of season surge and I look for Ray to get the hook early. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I think Miles Mikolas will find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Williams is so far 10-9 with a 3.44 ERA. For the most part Williams has completely exceeded expectations for Pittsburgh this year, but if the big right-hander has had one clear area of weakness, it’s definitely been his play on the road where he owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

Mikolas is so far 13-3 with a 2.94 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off 12 hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Friday. It was arguably the worst start of his career, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor effort. Note that despite the shoddy performance he still owns a sharp 2.94 ERA and elite 1.09 WHIP

The pick: Also note that Mikolas is a “lights out” 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA at home this season. I’m banking on Mikolas bouncing back in a big way in front of the home town crowd tonight. Lay the price.

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it. The massive talent-gap on the mound tonight makes Sean Newcomb and the hard-hitting home side well worth the price of admission. The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA. Castillo has been decent in his limited time on the mound, but so far the rookie has been under a strict pitch count each time he’s gone to the hill. And that won’t change here either in this difficult National League venue.

Newcomb is so far 11-6 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently allowed two hits while striking out eight over six scoreless in a victory over the Marlins on Thursday. Newcomb had struggled previous to this outing, but the southpaw definitely got back on track with this latest effort.

The pick: Note as well that Newcomb has been “lights out” in this spot all season with an 8-3, 2.77 ERA in all “night” games. I believe Castillo gets the hook early and I look for Newcomb to build off his last start. Play on the Braves.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and taking the home side on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA. He’s coming off a couple of sub-par outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 1-4, 5.74 ERA.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Tribe on Thursday, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in the commanding performance.

The pick: Price has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball over the second half, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA and an impressive 40:7 K/BB over six starts. I believe the veteran continues his end of season progression with another gem. Play on the Red Sox on the “run line.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two starters who have seen better days. I absolutely think that each will get the hook early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total “over,” sooner rather than later. The visitors go with Mike Fulmer, while the home side goes with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Fulmer is so far 3-9 with a 4.32 ERA. He looked decent against the tooth-less White Sox in his first start back from the DL last week, but overall it’s been a disappointing season for Fulmer, who is just 2-3 with a terrible 5.51 ERA on the road.

Duffy is so far 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Rays on Thursday. It was his first start back from the DL as well. Note that in two starts prior to getting injured he was shelled for 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in early August.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road day games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and in my opinion, this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though I think this one favors Kyle Freeland and the hard-hitting Rockies. The home side sends Noe Ramirez to the hill.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 11-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings while also going on to strike out seven in a victory over the Padres on Thursday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, Freeland also owns a shape 136:57 K/BB over 158.1 innings this season.

Ramirez is 4-4 with a 4.69 ERA. He’s been recalled from the minors to make this start and while the sky could in fact be the limit for Ramirez, there’s no question that he draws a difficult match-up in the Rockies’ dangerous hitting line-up.

The pick: Freeland’s the correct call here. Ramirez gets chased early and I look for visiting side to take full advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the “under” when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies’ eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number.

The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week.

Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he’s now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work.

The pick: Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups with relative “no names” going head to head on the mound and this is obviously one of them. I think runs will be plentiful this evening. The visitors go with Thomas Pannone, while the home side goes with Josh Rogers.

The pitchers: Pannone is so far 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He made three appearances out of the bullpen for his major league debut last week, but he’s been recalled now to make his very first start. Clearly the sky is the limit for Pannone, but I think he’ll take a small step back in this difficult venue.

Ramirez was supposed to get the start here, but Baltimore has made a late Tuesday morning change to Josh Rogers, who makes his MLB season debut today. The sky may be the limit for Rogers, but I think he’ll struggle against this difficult and determined opponent.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night road games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I’m banking on these starting pitchers getting chased early and for this total going “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it’s all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he’s been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I don’t expect Zack Greinke to have a letdown here, as he’s consistently been at this best at home. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake in this one.

The teams: Leake is so far 8-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Leake missed his last start due to an illness and while he’s been decent overall this year, one has to wonder if the veteran has completely recovered at this point?

Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. Greinke continues to grind out consistent results, along with his very respectable ERA he also has a sharp 165:32 K/BB.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, Greinke has been a lot better at home this year (5-3, 2.34) than on the road (7-5, 3.76). And take it for what you will, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. No upsets here, lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups and this is one of them in my opinion. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this inter-league contest on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The teams: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.06 ERA. While he’s struggled a bit of late, overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid overall this year, especially on the road where he owns a sharp 2.77 ERA to this point.

Estrada is so far 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back decent outings and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games this season with a 2-2, 3.11 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of their last 11 day home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is too high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number by the end of the game. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Ryan Yarbrough.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-6 with a 4.14 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the Indians and while’s been strong overall this season, note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all “night” games.

Yarbrough is so far 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. He has been “hit or miss” over the last month though and while the rookie has clearly exceeded expectations to this point, I’ll point out that he still owns a rather “ho hum” 4.14 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine as night road favorite in the -125 to -200 range, while Tampa has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 17 night home games as an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing no runs off seven hits with seven strikeouts over six innings in the victory. So far Clevinger has 155 strikeouts over 157.2 frames of work. Also note that he owns a sharp 2.75 ERA on the road this season.

Keller is so far 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong starts and note that the rookie has been at his best at home with the 3-1, 3.20 ERA to this point.

The pick: Neither of these guys is running out of gas, in fact each looks as if they’re getting stronger as the season is wearing on. I find absolutely no reason whatsoever not to believe that these two can’t carry that momentum over again here. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Sean Manaea and the hard-hitting A’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits in a rare “dud” of a performance in a setback to Houston on Sunday. He’s been scuffling a bit of late, but Manaea still owns a sharp 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. And note that he’s been particularly good on the road with the 6-3, 3.50 ERA record.

Odorizzi is so far 5-7 with a 4.55 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Sunday. It was the fifth straight start in which he’s failed to pitch a full six frames.

The pick: Note as well that Odorizzi owns a poor 5.52 ERA at home this season. I like Manaea to get back on track here after a couple of sub-par performances and to continue his strong play away from friendly confines, while I look for Odorrizi to continue his shoddy form in front of the home town crowd. Play on Oakland.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I’m therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a “nail-biter” and grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: This National League contest has “slug-fest” written all over in my opinion. The visitors go with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels.

The pitchers: DeSclafani is so far 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA. He’s been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Hamels is so far 8-9 with a 4.00 ERA. Hamels enters off his first shaky start for his new team, but overall the veteran has been sharp since coming over from the Rangers. Hamels has been anything but a “safe-bet” in all “home” situations this year though, coming in with a terrible 1-7, 6.01 ERA in all such instances.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog in the -150 to -200 range. I think that it’s very possible that Hamels’ early shiny numbers for Chicago are completely unsustainable. I’m also not confident that DeSclafani has “turned any corners” quite yet either. Look for this one to sneak “over” as it comes down the stretch.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium this afternoon with these two “studs” going head-to-head. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over New York on Friday. He’s been red hot since Day 1 and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t come in razor focused here as well. Note that he owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and has a 160:44 K/BB over 161 frames of work.

Scherzer is so far 16-5 with a 2.11 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Fish on Friday. That’s back-to-back scoreless outings for Scherzer, who owns a minuscule 0.89 WHIP and a monstrous 234 strikeouts over 174.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 20 day road games as an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. Jon Lester and the Cubs are well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. The home side sends Francisco Liriano to the hill.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 13-5 with a 3.72 ERA. After a great start, Lester has come back down to Earth over the last month. But the veteran has to be feeling confident facing the tooth-less Tigers, as note that he is a superb 8-2 with a 3.08 ERA on the road.

Liriano is so far 3-8 with a 4.72 ERA. Liriano comes in off back-to-back poor outings and he continues to regress as the season wares on. Note that he’s been really bad at home with a 5.43 ERA also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is a terrible 2-8 in its last ten home night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Lester to get back on track and easily out-duel Liriano. Play on Chicago.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. Everything points to a runs being at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Stephen Strasburg.

The pitchers: Eflin is so far 9-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He returns to the big league’s after a stint with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In his last start in the Majors on Aug. 16th he earned a win over the Mets despite allowing four runs over seven frames of work. Note though that he owns a sharp 7-3, 3.66 ERA in all “night” games.

Strasburg is so far 6-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Strasburg returns to the starting rotation refreshed after a month off due to a neck issue. He threw a 70 pitch simulated game late last week and he’s been cleared to go here.

The pick: Strasburg has the track record to get back on track and that’s what I expect to see after some time off to re-focus. Eflin has been sharp in this position all season as well and I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over into this one. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. That said, I think that Charlie Morton and the defending champs will find a way to a victory here and I believe they’re well worth the price of admission in this spot. The home side sends Marco Gonzales to the hill.

The pitchers: Morton is so far 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the A’s on Friday. Morton continues to defy the odds and I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt that he can’t keep the momentum rolling again here. Note that he owns a sharp 1.15 WHIP and has 175 strikeouts over 142.1 frames of work.

Gonzales is so far 12-8 with a 3.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland in his last start. Gonzales has been sharp overall this year, although he does own a rather pedestrian 4.49 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: There is room for concern looking at Gonzales. His last start was an indicator in my mind that he’s starting to run out of gas. Morton though is on track to put together the best campaign of his career. I look for Morton to continue his strong play with another focused effort in the Pacific Northwest. Play on the Astros.

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups of struggling starters and this is one of them. I think runs will be plentiful tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Robert Stephenson, while the home side goes with Freddy Peralta.

The pitchers: Stephenson is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. Stephenson has always looked sharp in Triple-A, but that success has so far not translated over into the big leagues. He was 5-6 with a 4.68 ERA last season, including just 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA on the road.

Peralta is so far 5-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Not surprisingly the rookie has been “hit or miss” this year, showing great strike-out potential, but also displaying shaky command with a lot of walks. Note that Peralta is just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games too.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 17 day home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Patrick Corbin and the home side have the advantage, making this a price that I can live with paying. The visitors go with Felix Pena on the mound.

The pitchers: Pena is so far 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena has looked solid of late, but I think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue.

Corbin is so far 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Rangers on Tuesday. It was his third-straight quality outing and to go along with his solid ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 11.0 K/9.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine night home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I like Corbin to find a way to get the job done at home, play on Arizona.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Sal Romano, while the home side goes with the steady Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 7-10 with a 5.31 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off seven hits with two walks over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Romano has been terrible overall this year, but especially on the road with the 2-5, 5.67 ERA.

Guerra is so far 6-8 with a 3.73 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up seven runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs. It was the first time in three starts he failed to record a quality outing. Guerra’s been solid overall, especially at home with a 3-2, 2.59 ERA record.

The pick: I believe Romano’s road struggles continue and that makes Guerra the correct call in this particular match-up. I can live paying this price as I expect a rout. Play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: I have zero faith in either starter and I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Chris Stratton, while the home side goes with Steven Matz.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.52 ERA. He returns from Triple-A out of necessity. For the most part he’s been terrible this season in the big leagues, especially at home with a 6.09 ERA.

Matz is so far 5-10 with a 4.60 ERA. He makes his second start back from injury at home, a place where he’s gone a poor 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

The pick: This match-up definitely does not have “pitchers duel” written all over it. It’s the exact opposite in fact. There’s no reason to have any faith in any either of these guys, and I don’t. I expect each to get the hook early and for this one to fly “over” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we’ll see just enough offense to push this one “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch.

Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I’ll caution that he’s still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up has “slug-fest” written all over it. The Orioles go with Dylan Bundy, while the Jays hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio.

The pitchers: Bundy is so far 7-11 with a 4.99 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings. He gave up eight hits, including two home runs. In four of his last six trips to the hill he’s allowed at least five earned runs while posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in that stretch.

Gaviglio is so far 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Royals on Tuesday. Over his last eight starts Gaviglio has posted an atrocious 7.07 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

The pick: Bundy’s form suggests he’s in line for another “long night,” while Gaviglio has regressed as the season has worn on. Expect these trends to continue and for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I believe the talent-gap to be so large here that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA. He’s been terrible overall with a 1.60 WHIP and note that he’s been especially feeble in all “night” games with a 1-7, 6.91 ERA record to this point.

Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the the White Sox on Sunday. Anderson has been solid overall this year, but he’ll be looking to “right the ship” after a couple of shaky performances. Note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is just 13-16 in its last 29 as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range, while Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -200 to -250 range. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the price.

The set-up: This Sunday night contest features a couple of pitchers who have been inconsistent this season. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Vargas is so far 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA. Last year the veteran was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA for Kansas City. He’s failed to resemble that form whatsoever this season though and note that he’s been particularly terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.91 ERA record in such instances.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Pivetta has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total fly “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 road night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Brett Kennedy.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Texas on Monday. Previous to this sub-par effort he’d allow two runs or fewer in nine straight trips to the hill. No need to overreact. Note that Greinke is still a solid 7-5 with a 3.50 ERA on the road as well.

Kennedy is so far 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out two over five frames in a setback to the Angels on Tuesday. Kennedy has now given up 11 runs off 20 hits over nine innings in the big leagues.

The pick: I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand and because of that, I’m laying this price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Sean Manaea to the hill in this one.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 11-8 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and walked none in an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the end. Verlander has to be feeling confident here as he comes in with a 9-2, 1.74 ERA road record to this point.

Manaea is so far 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA. Manaea has been solid overall this season, but he’s scuffled a bit over his last two starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA at home.

The pick: It’s hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he’s been very solid this year. But Verlander has been almost unbeatable on the road and I expect that trend of dominance to carry over here as well. Verlander’s run support is down from what it was last season, but I think the visitors take advantage and give their ace some production in this favorable match up. Play on Houston.

The set-up: This series features a couple of mismatches on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. The visitors go with Jaime Barria, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Barria is so far 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA. he most recently gave up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out seven over five innings against San Diego on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Barria is now 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA.

Gallardo is so far 7-2 with a 6.39 ERA. He makes a spot start in place of Bartolo Colon. In his most recent loss he gave up four runs off six hits over 4.1 innings to Arizona on Tuesday. Note that he has a 5.86 ERA at home.

The pick: Barria comes in on top form and I think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Gallardo. Great price all things considered, play on LA.

The set-up: Ryan Borucki and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays face their ex-ace JA Happ and the Yankees in New York on Sunday afternoon and I’m expecting a competitive battle.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Tuesday. Note that he’s been solid with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

Happ is so far 13-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Rays on Tuesday. He’s now 3-0 for the Yankees, giving up four runs over 19 frames of work.

The pick: I think it’s worthy to note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine road day games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. I expect this one to be decided late or even in extra frames. Grab the 1.5 runs for the Jays.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Trevor Cahill.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.43 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but since the start of July he’s almost resembled the dominant figure on the mound he was about two years ago. Note though that Keuchel has been at his best on the road this season with the respectable 6-4, 3.00 ERA record to this point.

Cahill is so far 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. It wasn’t a great start, but overall the veteran has been solid, posting a 1.10 WHIP over 79.2 frames of work. Note as well that Cahill is 3-0 with 0.99 ERA at home this season.

The pick: With these two studs facing off on Saturday afternoon, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium. Play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the hill, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with two walks over seven innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he’s 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road.

Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. Newcomb comes in on top form, giving up just three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined (striking out 19 in the process).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine as a road dog in the +125 to +200 range. I’m banking on Newcomb getting the better of Freeland in friendly confines. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard on the hill, while the home side goes with Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. In his second start since returning from the DL he earned the victory and to go along with his respectable ERA he also owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work.

Nola is so far 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Nola is putting together the finest campaign of his career and he’s been unbeatable at home so far by going 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 home games when the line is set between +150 and -150. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

The set­up: This series features a couple of lop­sided mismatches on the mound, and this is one of them. In fact the talent­gap is so large in my opinion, that I do indeed feel that Clay Buchholz and the hard­hitting visitors are well worth the price of admission this evening. The home side sends Jabob Nix to the hill.

The teams: Buchholz is so far 5­2 with a 2.67 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out eight in a 9­3 victory over San Francisco on Saturday. His 8.1 K/9 rate is his best since 2015 and note that he’s 3­2 with a tiny 2.18 ERA on the road. Nix is so far 1­0 with a 0.00 ERA, who looked sharp in his debut against the Phillies on Friday. Nix was dominant in Triple­A and that momentum was carried over into his first career big­league start, but there’s no question that he faces a much stiffer test thisevening in the Diamondbacks’ potent hitting line­up.

The pick: The skies are the limit for Nix, but I think he’s in over his head here. Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona this season and I find no reason not to believe that the veteran can’t carry over his consistency once again in this favorable match­up. Lay the price.

The set­up: This series features a couple of interesting match­ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. All signs point to a classic “duel” and that runs will be at an extreme premium. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell, while the Yankees go with former­ace Masahiro Tanaka.

The teams: Snell is so far 13­5 with a 2.18 ERA. Snell returned tom the ten­day DL and looked sharp in a victory over the Jays last Friday. Snell will be given the green light here and have the leash taken off in the Big Apple, note that he’s a very respectable 4­2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “day” games. Tanaka is so far 9­3 with a 4.08 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a couple of strong outings and his 1.07 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 103 innings of work suggest he’ll be able to finish the regular season on a high. Note that he’s 2­0 with a 3.80 ERA in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Snell’s been better overall than Tanaka this year, but the home side hurler catches a break in this one facing the Rays’ anemic line­up. I’m expecting these two starters to go deep into the latter innings and for this one to to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: This series features a a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. Both of these veteran starters have looked decent so far this season, but I think Hyun-Jin Ryu will find a way to get the job done here at home. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland is so far 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off ten hits over 6.1 innings while striking out five and walking one in a fortunate victory over Pittsburgh on Friday. Holland has been serviceable, but he’s been shaky in all “night” games with the poor 2-7, 4.99 ERA record in such instances.

Ryu is so far 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA. He’s made two re-hab starts and he’s been cleared to go here. Over his first six starts before landing on the DL he posted the 2.12 ERA and a sharp 0.88 WHIP.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Ryu will be on a count, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Holland. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of mismatches on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. The visitors are well worth the price of admission in this spot as they hand the ball to the surging Zack Wheeler. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 7-6 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a victory over Miami on Friday. Wheeler has now won five straight, posting a tiny 2.08 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a sharp 34:6 K/BB spanning 34.2 frames.

Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.70 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings in a loss to Boston on Friday. Bundy has now given up at least five earned runs in four of his last six outings, posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in the process.

The pick: Wheeler benefits from the American League format here and I believe he can carry over his considerable momentum in this favorable match-up. The Mets have struggled at the plate all season, but they catch a break facing confirmed “gas can” Bundy. Lay the price.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to sneak “over” the number sooner rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 4-5 with a 4.36 ERA. Archer has looked shaky since coming over from the Rays, looking decent in one start and poor in the other. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this season.

Berrios is so far 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with six walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Thursday. Berrios for the most part has been solid this season, but this latest effort was a step back for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 14 road day games in which its an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Archer’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him here, while I also believe Berrios continues to slide after his recent shaky performance. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Mariners and their flame-thrower James Paxton. The home side sends Mike Fiers to the hill tonight.

The pitchers: Paxton is so far 10-5 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off eight hits over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday, striking out seven and walking only one. That’s now back-to-back strong performances for Paxton and note that he’s been super solid in all “night” games with the 8-2, 3.19 ERA record to this point as well.

Fiers is so far 7-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Fiers looked admirable in his first start for his new team in a tough match-up throwing opposite Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw and he enters on a nice streak overall, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one tonight.

The pick: And that’s because the Mariners are a superb 7-2 in their last nine when on the road and the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. I think Paxton is the correct call here. Fiers is poised for a letdown and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage. Play on Seattle.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I think that runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors go with German Marquez on the mound, while the home side goes with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA. He most recently struck out nine and walked two in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs over seven innings. Over 122.2 frames of work, Marquez sports a sharp 129:43 K/BB and note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road to this point as well.

Verlander is so far 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out 14 over eight innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It was Verlander’s third straight start and his fifth in his last six in which he’s given up two or fewer runs.

The pick: Coors Field is a difficult venue to throw in and like most, Marquez has had his difficulties there. However he’s been much better on the road and I think he carries over his momentum from his last start. And there’s also no reason not to think that Verlander won’t be focused here as well in this interesting inter-league match-up. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. I think the talent-gap is so large in fact, that it makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Corbin is so far 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Corbin comes in on top form, having posted back-to-back dominant efforts, posting a whopping 19 strikeouts in that span. After a small scuffling patch, Corbin is back on track and there’s no reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.99 ERA on the road to this point.)

Gallardo is so far 7-1 with a 6.11 ERA. He most recently got a win over Baltimore on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings. Gallardo has been terrible overall this year, having allowed multiple free-passes in six of his eight trips to the mound this season and to go along with his poor ERA, note that he also sports a sub-par 1.62 WHIP over 47 frames of work.

The pick: Corbin and the Diamondbacks are big road favorites in this one, but for good reason. Gallardo has been a disaster and I’m predicting another letdown here as well. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs will be at a premium this evening. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 14-5 with a 4.17 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out nine over nine innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Yankees on Friday. Note that Porcello has been much better on the road (8-2, 3.81) than at home (6-3, 4.57) as well.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA. He most recently went six shutout innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now thrown back-to-back quality outings and note that he owns an impressive 11.1 K/9 to this point as well.

The pick: These starting pitchers come in on top form. There’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that recent momentum over here and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Andrew Heaney, while the visitors go with Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Heaney is so far 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Thursday. Overall Heaney has been solid this year though and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.13 WHIP and elite 116:32 K/BB over 112.1 frames. 

Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off seven hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great and his win/loss record is indicative of that. 

The pick: Note that Richard is just 5-8 with a 5.35 ERA in all “day” games as well this season. A late west coast game in a pitcher friendly park is just what the doctor ordered for Heaney and I’m banking on Richard continuing his steady and predictable decline as the season winds down. Play on LA.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound absolutely makes Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting the side the correct call in this inter-league match-up. The Rangers send the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill tonight.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and four walks while striking out four over seven innings against the Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last five starts spanning 35.2 frames of work Greinke has a tiny 1.26 ERA and overall he sports an elite 152:23 K/BB.

Colon is so far 6-10 with a 5.18 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out just one over seven innings in a fortunate victory over the Mariners on Tuesday. With the victory Colon became the all time Latin American wins leader. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.65 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 8-2 in its last ten road inter-league games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for Greinke to come in focused and to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

analysis comingThe set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with the erratic Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. Clevinger comes into this one with the sharp 3.48 ERA to go along with a respectable 1.22 WHIP and 139 strikeouts over 139.2 frames of work (note that Clevinger has an elite 2.69 ERA on the road as well this season.)

Bailey is so far 1-9 with a 6.19 ERA. He most recently was shelled for five runs off 11 hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Monday. Bailey has been a disaster so far this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also sports a brutal 1.59 WHIP and a poor 54 strikeouts over 80 frames of work.

The pick: And note that Bailey has consistently been at his worst at home with an 0-5, 6.44 ERA record to this point in front of the home town crowd. I’m expecting Clevinger to carry over his consistent play on the road and I look for the Indians’ big bats to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: It’s hard to say anything negative about Max Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cubs’ newly acquired starter Cole Hamels can carry over his momentum from his debut for his new team and match his elite counterpart frame for frame. I’m banking on this one being decided late or in extra innings, meaning I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs.

The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday.

Hamels is so far 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He would give up one run over six innings in a win over Kansas City in his first start for the Cubs on Monday. Over his last 11 innings of work note that he’s given up just one earned run.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 as a home dog in the -125 to -200 range. As I stated off the top, I think this one will be very competitive and that’s the reason why I’m taking the Cubs on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He’s been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he’s been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks.

Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span.

The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he’s quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Chase Anderson, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Previous to that though he’d thrown back-to-back quality efforts and he’s still holding his opposition to just a .221 batting average. I think Anderson bounces back here and improves upon his already impressive 100:48 K/BB over 125.1 frames of work this season.

Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits to go along with six strikeouts in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Newcomb has now given up only three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined, striking out 19 over 20.2 innings of work.

The pick: This one has classic “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard, while the home side goes with Wei Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Syndergaard comes in with a sharp 1.22 WHIP and he also has 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work. Additionally note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the road to this point.

Chen is so far 4-8 with a 5.48 ERA. He comes in off a rare gem against the Cards, giving up no runs off one hit over 5.2 innings in the the victory. In his previous outing he was shelled for five runs over five innings. To go along with his uninspiring 5.48 ERA, Chen also owns a poor 1.43 WHIP and pedestrian 66:36 K/BB over 88.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but note that the Mets are 7-2 in their last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I’m banking on Chen taking a predictable step back here and I look for Synergaard to continue his recent progression. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The talent gap is so great though in my opinion, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, while the home side goes with Tyler Skaggs.

The pitchers: Jackson is so far 3-2 with a  2.87 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a victory over the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday. In 2017 Jackson was just 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s been great in 2018, but I think his numbers are unsustainable and I expect some predictable regression sooner, rather than later. 

Skaggs is so far 8-7 with a 3.34 ERA. Skaggs returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. In his previous outing he was rocked for ten runs against the Rays. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Skaggs this season and I’m expecting him to bounce back her win friendly confines, a place that he’s already posted a very respectable 3.22 ERA to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I think Jackson regresses and I like Skaggs to bounce back. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks. The home side sends the erratic Matt Harvey to the hill.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.92 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits while striking out eight over six innings in a no-decision to the Giants on Sunday. Ray has not been able to carry over his 2017 momentum, but note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. 

Harvey is so far 5-7 with a 5.37 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over four innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. Five of the nine hits he gave up went for extra-bases. Note that he owns a terrible 5.48 ERA at home. 

The pick: I think Ray’s consistency on the road carries over here, while all signs point to another long night for Harvey in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of pretty “mediocre” match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. These starters have looked decent at times this year and very poor in others and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson, while the home side goes with Francisco Liriano. 

The pitchers: Gibson is so far 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Overall Gibson has been solid this season, but note that the Twins have seen the total fly “over” the number in seven of their last ten when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.

Liriano is so far 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. For the most part LIriano has struggled this season though, coming into this one sporting a rough 73:51 K/BB. Note as well that he owns a horrible 5.08 ERA at home so far. 

The pick: I’m expecting these erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Blake Snell, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Snell is so far 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. He came back from the DL to face the White Sox most recently and would give up one run over four innings. Snell’s “leash” will be taken off here and he actually comes in with an extra days rest. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. Respectable for sure.

Estrada is so far 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Seattle over the weekend. Estrada has struggled overall this season, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction and I think the veteran has the track record and pedigree to now carry that momentum over into a strong finish to the 2018 campaign.

The pick: I’m expecting a classic “duel” and on Friday night and as such, I’m jumping all over the “under” in this one.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. Both of these starters tonight have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 8-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Orioles on Saturday. Minor has been “hit or miss” though this year and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road still.

Tanaka is so far 9-2 with a 3.76 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out nine over 4.2 innings in a victory over Boston on Sunday.

The pick: It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, as overall he’s been very solid this year. Minor though has been a disaster on the road and I think the home side’s big bats are going to take advantage. The price is to steep, but the “over” is the correct call in my opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Yankees on Saturday, giving up three hits and striking out four in the commanding performance. Since coming over to “The Evil Empire,” Eovaldi has fired 15 straight shutout frames.

Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Over his previous 12.1 frames of work though Bundy was shelled for 15 earned runs. I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing as he’s consistently been inconsistent in this spot all year, coming in with a terrible 4-5, 4.95 ERA home record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox and Eovaldi to come in focused and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Giants. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Andrew Suarez.

The pitchers: Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.49 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Cards on Saturday. Nova comes in struggling across the board, having posted a terrible 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 17:10 K/BB over his last 31 frames of work. Note that he owns a poor 5.40 ERA on the road as well.

Suarez is so far 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Suarez comes off an outing to forget against the Diamondbacks on Saturday, giving up eight runs off ten hits over five innings. Suarez has struggled a bit of late as well, but he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in friendly confines as he owns a very respectable 3.64 ERA at home so far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a solid 19-12 in its last 31 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Suarez settles down at home, while Nova once again looks poised for a long-night. Lay the price, play on the Giants.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one does indeed favor the home side. The Braves send Anibal Sanchez to the hill tonight, while the Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez.

The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday. Sanchez though would only throw 59 of his 100 pitches for strikes and he only generated eight swinging strikes against the Mets’ pathetic hitting line-up. Sanchez has been better than advertised this season, but I think he’s going to have his hands full here.

Gonzalez is so far 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs over 3.2 innings in a blowout loss to the Reds on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez over the last two seasons and he has to be feeling confident here that he can bounce back as he owns a solid 3.15 ERA at home so far this season.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but note that the Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Gonzalez to bounce back at home and I think Sanchez is poised for regression. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features some starting pitchers who have seen better days. This is one of those match-ups. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up ten runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out one over 1.2 innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. Cashner had looked decent over the previous month before this dud, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season.

Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA. Stanek has looked decent in his limited time as a starters, but clearly the book is still out on the the 27 year old, as the sample size is simply too small. He posted a 5.85 ERA last year, so regression does seem imminent in my opinion after his recent run of competency.

The pick: I have zero confidence in either of these starters and I expect each to get chased early. So with that in mind, the prudent call is definitely the “over” in this particular matchup in my professional opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that Mike Foltynewicz and the visitors are worth the price of admission tonight. The home side goes with Tommy Milone on the hill.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz is so far 8-7 with a 3.04 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs and a walk while striking out six in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. Foltynewicz was scuffling before this, but he looked fantastic in his latest start and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Note that he still owns an impressive 143:50 K/BB over 124.1 frames of work.

Milone is so far 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up one run while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Mets on Monday. Over 12 innings this year Milone has given up just four runs, but clearly he faces a stiff test tonight against the Braves’ hard-hitting sluggers.

The pick: I like Foltynewicz to build off his latest effort, while everything points to a predictable letdown for Milone against this difficult line-up. Play on the Braves.

The set-up: This series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight with a couple of red hot hurlers squaring off. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA. He most recently went 6.1 scoreless frames against the Fish on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk while striking out seven in the victory. Over his last 24.1 frames he’s given up just two runs. He also has 129 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work this year.

Corbin is so far 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He most recently struck out eight and walked zero in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Cobrin now has 12 quality efforts on the season and he’s holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He also has an impressive 174 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP.

The pick: I’m expecting these starters to throw deep into this game and as a result, the “under” is the correct call in my professional opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzalez on the hill, while the Rangers go with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Gonzales is so far 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. The setback snapped a five-game win streak in which he posted a 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. Note that he’s still 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA on the road.

Gallardo is so far 6-1 with a 6.51 ERA. He earned a win last time out against the Orioles on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 frames of work. The beleaguered right-hander has now given up multiple walks in six of his eight starts this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a deplorable 1.62 WHIP.

The pick: Gallardo’s win/loss record is not indicative of how he’s thrown this year as he’s been the beneficiary of some weak match-ups and a lot of support. I expect those two things to come to an end here against the Mariners’ big bats and the consistent play of Gonzalez. Lay the price, play on Seattle.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Dodgers go with Rich Hill, while the A’s go with Sean Manea.

The pitchers: Hill is so far 4-4 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Hill has been pretty good since returning from the DL in mid-June, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in all “night” games.

Manaea is so far 10-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits with two walks over six innings while striking out five in a win over Toronto on Wednesday. It was his third quality effort out of his last four tries and he now has a 21:6 K/BB over his last 34.2 frames of work.

The pick: Hill has looked better of late, but I think he’ll struggle in this difficult venue. Manaea is putting together his best season of his career and I look for him to carry that momentum over in friendly confines. Play on Oakland.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Phillies go with Nick Pivetta, while the Diamondbacks go with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with zero walks over six innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Marlins on Thursday. Pivetta though has been terrible on the road this season by going 2-4 with a 5.63 ERA.

Greinke is so far 12-6 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate loss to San Francisco on Thursday. Greinke though is putting together a great overall 2018 campaign, coming into this one sporting the sharp ERA, a strong 1.04 WHIP and 148 strikeouts to this point.

The pick: And note that Greinke has been tough on the opposition at home this year with the 5-2, 2.44 ERA record to this point. No upset here as I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two struggling starters go head-to-head in this one and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano, while the home side goes with Jason Vargas.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Romano has been terrible overall this season, especially on the road where he’s just 1-5 with a 5.62 ERA.

Vargas is so far 2-7 with an 8.23 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Vargas comes in with zero momentum, having now lost four straight. 

The pick: Vargas has struggled at home as well with a 1-3, 5.49 ERA record to this point. The total in this contest is high for a National League affair, but for good reason. I’m expecting these hurlers to get chased early and I look for this total to fly “over” the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez.

The pitchers: Mikolas is so far 11-3 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Over five July starts Mikolas would give up 11 runs over 27 innings while also posting 19 strikeouts. To go along with his strong ERA, he also owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and 97:25 K/BB over 137.1 frames of work.

Lopez is so far 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Lopez has looked decent over his six career big league starts, but not great. Note that he’s just 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA at home as well.

The pick: The sample size is simply too small for Lopez to get an entirely accurate read, but in the early going the rookie has been terrible in front of the home town crowd. And that doesn’t bode well facing this opportunistic Cards’ line-up. There’s no reason not to think that Mikolas can’t carry over his focus to this one. Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I like Matt Boyd and the Tigers to battle tough and to keep this one close enough to at the very least, escape with a cover with the extra 1.5 runs. The home side sends Nick Tropeano to the hill.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 6-9 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Over his last 19 frames of work he’s allowed just three earned runs. 

Tropeano is so far 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Tropeano labored from the start by throwing only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes. 

The pick: Tropeano has been a disaster at home as well with the 1-3, 5.46 ERA record this season. I think Boyd carries over his considerable momentum here, while recent form displayed by Tropeano points to another long night for the right-hander. Play on the Tigers on the “run line.” 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think that Wade LeBlanc and the visiting side are worth the price of admission vs. Rangers’ starter Bartolo Colon.

The pitchers: LeBlanc is so far 6-2 with a 3.95 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Astros on Wednesday, allowing seven runs over 4.1 innings. He’d posted two straight quality efforts before this “dud,” so I’m not going to over-react to one crummy outing. Note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA in all “night” games.

Colon is so far 5-10 with a 5.18 ERA. he most recently was shelled for five runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Colon is continuing to regress as the season wares on, having allowed at least five runs in three straight trips to the mound. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA at home as well.

The pick: LeBlanc was cruising along with some elite numbers until his most recent outing, but Colon has been struggling for quite a while. LeBlanc gets back on track here in this favorable matchup, while everything points to another long night for Colon. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons however, I think this one favors the home side. The Giants go with Derek Holland, while the Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray.

The pitchers: Holland is so far 5-8 with a 3.90 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits with two walks while striking out five over five innings against San Diego on Monday. Holland has been better than advertised so far for San Francisco this season, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road.

Ray is so far 3-2 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off two hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in no-decision to the Rangers on Monday. Ray’s ERA is nothing to write home about, but he sports a respectable 1.29 WHIP and 87 strikeouts over 66 frames of work to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 3-7 in its last ten day games as a road underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I like Ray to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to provide the support. Lay the price.

The set-up: This isn’t the most interesting match-up on the mound, but all things considered I believe it’s one that favors the home side. The Reds send the erratic Luis Castillo to the hill, while the Nationals go with improving Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 6-8 with a 4.98 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday, striking out nine and walking just one. It was his best start of the year, but I think he’ll make a predictable fall back down into mediocrity again tonight. Note that he’s just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA on the road as well still.

Roark is so far 5-12 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings, while striking out seven and walking none in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Over his last 15 innings of work Roark has given up just one earned run.

The pick: Roark has struggled overall this year, but his recent form suggests that the hard-throwing right-hander is finally trending in the correct direction. Castillo had an amazing performance in his latest start, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season, especially on the road. That makes Roark well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. Play on the Nationals.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and depending on how you want to look at it, this is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. He’s now lost three straight and posted a 1.21 WHIP to go along with just 67 strikeouts over 71 frames of work this season. Note that he owns a poor 5.25 ERA on the road as well.

Jackson is so far 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He most recently went 5.2 scoreless against the Jays in a victory. In his previous start though he was blasted for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. Jackson has been decent overall this year, but regression seems imminent in my opinion after his unreal start.

The pick: For this pick I’m focusing solely on the starting pitchers. Simply put, neither fills me with a lot of confidence. In fact, I’m expecting each to get the hook early and as such, everything points to the “over” as the correct call in this particular match-up.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Smith has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. To go along with his poor ERA, note that he also owns a shoddy 1.50 WHIP.

Berrios is so far 10-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Over 139 frames of work this year Berrios owns the 3.56 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, while also amassing 142 strikeouts.

The pick: Berrios has been “lights out” at home as well with a 7-2, 2.99 ERA record. Smith is in over his head here. Berrios has been far from perfect this season, but he’ll be feeling confident in friendly confines and that makes this a price that I can live with paying. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, but this particular one is even more lop-sided than what the oddsmakers want us to believe in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova.

The pitchers: Gomber is so far 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA. He made his first major-league start in Cincinnati on July 24th and gave up two earned runs over 6.1 innings. Gomber’s been decent, not spectacular and clearly he draws a tough match-up here.

Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Previous to that “dud” though Nova had looked pretty good by giving up just six runs over 17 frames of work. The 31 year old comes into this one sporting a 1.29 WHIP and 82:22 K/BB over 114.1 frames.

The pick: Clearly the sky is the limit for Gomber, but I think the rookie will come up short here on the road. Nova for the most part has been solid this year and I think he’ll get the better of his younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think that Zach Eflin and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Jose Urena on the mound tonight.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 3-10 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Nationals on Sunday. Urena has been decent overall this season, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Eflin is so far 7-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. He’s looked shaky over his last two starts, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react at this point. Note that Eflin is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Eflin is also a solid 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA in all “night” games. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s in over his head in this difficult venue in my opinion. I’m banking on Eflin doing just enough to get back into the win column tonight. Lay the price.

The set-up: This important American League series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and this is certainly one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I absolutely believe that Nate Eovaldi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Chance Adams, who makes his big league debut here.

The pitchers: Adams went five scoreless while striking out six for Triple-A Scranton on Wednesday. Previous to that though he’d given up four runs off seven hits over 3.2 innings. He’s also already given up four free passes over just 8.2 innings of work.

Eovaldi is so far 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA. He went seven shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out five in a win over Minnesota in his debut for his new team on Sunday. Over his last 13 innings of work he’s given up just one run while striking out 13.

The pick: Over 64 frames of work Eovaldi has 58 strikeouts to go along with a sharp 0.94 WHIP this season. Clearly the sky is the limit for Adams, but I think he’s in well over his head in this one. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

The set-up: I think that Marco Gonzalez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Ryan Borucki on the mound.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over six innings with six hits and a walk while strking out five in a no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. The rookie has been decent in his limited time, but clearly he finds himself in a difficult match-up and venue here.

Gonzalez is so far 12-5 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits over six frames while striking out seven in a win over the Angels on Sunday. He’s now 5-0 over his last five games and he’s given up just 25 walks over 125.2 frames of work overall this season.

The pick: Note as well that Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA at home this year. And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine as a home fav in the -150 to -225 range, while the Blue Jays are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog in the +150 to +200 range. No upset here as Gonzalez continues his solid season with another strong performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with German Marquez, while the Brewers go with Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-8 with a 4.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk in a win over the A’s on Sunday. Marquez has been “hit or miss” this year though and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.86 ERA in all “night” games.

Guerra is so far 6-7 with a 3.43 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Sunday. Previous to that though he’d given up three earned runs or fewer in six of seven outings. Note as well that he’s 3-3 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Guerra comes in focused and hungry off his latest poor effort. And thankfully for Guerra he’s throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight, a place which he’s been downright dominant in. No reason not to think that that momentum/trend doesn’t get carried over here as well. The price is right, play on the Brewers.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I absolutely believe that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors send Heath Fillmyer to the hill.

The pitchers: Fillmyer is so far 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Saturday. Over his first 27.1 big league innings the rookie sports a poor 15:12 K/BB.

Odorizzi is so far 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing, giving up five runs off nine hits while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Previous to that he gave up two runs over seven innings and struck out eight against the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range, while KC is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range. I like Odorizzi to come in focused and to take advantage of this favorable match-up. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. Clayton Kershaw has looked human this year and I think that leaves the door open for the steady Jhoulys Chacin and the hungry Brewers to steal this one on Thursday night.

The pitchers: Chacin is so far 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Over 127.2 innings Chacin sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP and note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA on the road this season.

Kershaw is so far 4-5 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits over 7.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kershaw, who has been solid of late, I simply feel that Chacin, who comes in on top form, is going to be able to match him inning for inning on Thursday.

The pick: The Brewers are under-rated here in my opinion, they come in 63-47 overall, including 30-26 on the road. LA is 59-49 overall, but a pedestrian 28-26 at home. Value swings to the underdog in this one, play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: It’s a big American League East series going in Boston Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia, while the Red Sox go with Brian Johnson.

The pitchers: Sabathia is so far 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Saturday. Sabathia had been off for two weeks, so he had to work though a little rust. The veteran though looked sharp overall and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 5-3, 3.66 ERA night record.

Johnson is so far 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently struck out five over 5.2 scoreless in a no-decision to Minnesota on Thursday. Johnson remains in the rotation with the injury to ace Chris Sale, but note that he’s still 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Slugger Aaron Judge is out for the Yankees, but New York features a ton of depth at the plate, so expect zero regression in that department. Note as well that the Yanks are 24-6 (+14.6 units) this season against southpaws. I like Sabathia to get the better of Johnson and for the “Evil Empire” to strike first.

The set-up: Miami was in Atlanta on Wednesday night, while Philadelphia had the night off. This series features a number of rather poor match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with Trevor Richards, while the Phillies go with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA. He most recently allowed three hits with two walks while striking out eight over six scoreless against the Nationals on Saturday. The rookie has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to his MLB career, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road this year.

Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off six hits with 12 strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Friday. Over 107.2 innings Pivetta owns the pedestrian ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 134 strikeouts remain respectable.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 0-11 (-11 units) this year on all “Thursday” games and just 35-44 against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-37 (+7.3 units) against right-handed starters. No upsets here. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

OVERNIGHT PITCHING CHANGE FOR MIAMI: Note that the Fish have opted to go with Pablo Lopez instead (2-2, 5.34) who was most recently crushed for four runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Friday. Simply put, his numbers aren’t spectacular (1.29 WHIP and 23 strikeouts over 28.2 innings.) This is a difficult spot start and I think Lopez will predictably struggle. This play is still VALID, lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the visitors. The defending champs send Dallas Keuchel to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 8-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings while striking out five in a loss to the Rangers on Friday. Note that it was just his first loss since early June. Also note that Keuchel has been sharp on the road this season with a 5-4, 3.04 ERA record.

LeBlanc is so far 6-1 with a  3.51 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. LeBlanc has looked good as well this year, but I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

The pick: Note as well that Keuchel is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in all “day” games this season, while LeBlanc has a 6.06 ERA in all day contests. I’m banking on Keuchel continuing his strong play on the road and in all daytime contests and I look for LeBlanc to finally take a step back in this difficult match-up. Lay the price, play on Houston.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this particular one is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Jays send Marcus Stroman to the hill, while the A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea. 

The pitchers: Stroman is so far 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out three in a win over the White Sox on Friday. Since coming off the DL Stroman has posted a 2.98 ERA, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in all “day” games.

Manaea is so far 9-7 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently allowed three earned runs off nine hits over five innings while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Colorado on Friday. Manaea has now allowed three earned runs or less in ten consecutive starts. 

The pick: Manaea has been at his best at home as well this year with a 5-0, 2.95 ERA record and I think he carries that momentum over here. Stroman has looked better of late, but I think he finally takes a step back in this difficult venue. The price is right, play on Oakland.

The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound, however I don’t think that this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco on the hill, while the Twins go with Adalberto Mejia 

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 12-5 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs (just one earned) off seven hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Friday. Carrasco was on top form, generating 19 swinging strikes out of 97 pitches and since the All Star break he’s posted a 16:3 K/BB over 13 innings.

Mejia is so far 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA. Mejia is back in the rotation out of necessity and so far he’s posted a 3.68 ERA to go along with a poor 1.67 WHIP over 12.1 innings this year. 

The pick: Carrasco comes in rested and focused and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he won’t carry over his recent momentum here. Mejia has been decent in his limited time this season, but there’s no question he draws a tough matchup this afternoon. I think Carrasco will have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his counterpart and that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Indians.

The set-up: This series features a number of lop-sided match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with the venerable Bartolo Colon, while the home side goes with Zach Godley.

The pitchers: Colon is so far 5-9 with a 5.02 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Colon has lost all four July starts and he comes in sporting the sub-par 3-5, 4.78 ERA on the road.

Godley is so far 11-6 with a 4.73 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Overall his numbers are poor, but note that he’s been much better of late, allowing exactly one walk in four of his last five starts, while not giving up a home run in any of those outings and posting a very respectable 3.42 ERA over that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is already a poor 31-43 (-4.7 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 37-32 (+2.3 units) against right-handed pitching. No upsets here as I expect Godley to easily get the better of Colon. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Cardinals. The visitors go with Jon Gray on the hill, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty.

The pitchers: Gray is so far 8-7 with a 5.16 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off one hit while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston on Wednesday. Gray’s looked sharp in consecutive starts since being called back up from a stint in the minors, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this year.

Flaherty is so far 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over five innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday. Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his best at home with a 3.08 ERA so far this season.

The pick: I think Gray comes back down to Earth with another poor effort on the road, while there’s no reason not to think that Flaherty won’t be able to carry over his recent momentum, especially in friendly confines. The price is right, play on St. Louis.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Kyle Gibson.

The pitchers: Bauer is so far 9-6 with a 2.32 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Wednesday, giving up two hits and striking out ten in the commanding performance. Bauer hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been very consistent and note that he has to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA in all “night” games.

Gibson is so far 5-7 with a 3.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over eight innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Gibson, who is easily putting together the best campaign of his career to this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The pick: As note that Cleveland is 36-18 (+4.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Minnesota is a terrible 24-33 (-4.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records. I think Bauer matches Gibson inning for inning and I look for the Indians’ hard-hitting line-up to do the rest. Lay the price, play on the Tribe.

The set-up: I think Tyler Skaggs and the hard-hitting Angels are the correct call in this particular matchup. The home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Skaggs is so far 8-6 with a 2.62 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs (just one earned) off four hits while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the White Sox on Wednesday. The southpaw has now given up one or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight trips to the hill while posting a 51:12 K/BB over 50 innings during that stretch. 

Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.43 ERA. He’s expected to throw no more than two frames, before making way for either Austin Pruitt or Ryan Yarbrough out of the bullpen. In his last start Stanek was lit up for three runs over two innings by the Orioles.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 17-8 (+5.8 units) in its last 25 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Tampa is just 57-63 (-8.5 units) in its last 120 at home when the money line is set in the +125 to -125 range. I’m banking on Skaggs coming in focused and I look for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Great value, play on the Angels.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match ups on the mound and this isn’t really one of them. This is a bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers would like us to think though in my opinion as the visitors hand the ball to the steady Derek Rodriguez, while the home side goes with the erratic Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his solid ERA, Rodriguez also owns an impressive 47:14 K/BB.

Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off five hits with two walks to go along with a lone strikeout over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Wednesday. Richard has now given up at least five runs in three of his last five starts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is 22-16 (+10.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while San Diego is just 13-19 (-3.2 units) in all “day” games. Great value on the better pitcher, play on the Giants.

The set-up: The Brewers fell 8-5 in San Francisco last night, while the Dodgers lost 4-1 in Atlanta yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors LA. The visitors go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. Over 43.1 innings so far he’s allowed 22 walks.

Maeda is so far 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking no one in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that it was the first time since mid May that he’s allowed more than three runs. Note as well that he owns a solid 2.74 ERA at home.

The pick: The Brewers have been strong on the road, but their rookie is in over his head here in my opinion. I look for Maeda to continue his strong play at home and to find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Lay the price.