Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!

 The Diamondbacks have won four straight, two against the Tigers, and all four on the road.  Those last four wins have all been by four or more runs.  Their ace is on the mound on Sunday.  Gallen allowed more hits than usual against the Braves but he still held them to 2 ER.  That is about average for the right-hander, on usually about six innings of work.  The Tigers, now 1-9, haven't been getting many innings from their starters.  Sunday's starter Wentz is one of the culprits, with most of his outings under five innings.  He has given up almost a run an inning, too many the result of home runs.  The Tigers have a very long list of injuries, most of them pitchers.  They are last in runs-scored this season, and their bullpen has been overworked, and just average in effectiveness lately.  The D-backs are a strong fifth in runs scored and hitting left-handed pitching at a .310 clip in their last ten games.  Take Arizona on the run line at -1 1/2.  10*!

The Mariners are struggling, especially on this road trip.  They're just 1-5 so far and have given up ten runs or more in three of those games.  The Angels have won five straight, limiting runs to two or less in three of five starts. Angels' lefty Sandoval's last start was short and poor.  While he hasn't been as effective as he was last year, he is much better at home and has yet to pitch poorly in consecutive starts.  The Mariners rookie Woo was rudely greeted by the Rangers in his first career start.  It is out of the frying pan and into the fire for Woo, as the Angels, top seven in OPS/L15 games, have some big bats as well.  The Mariners are hitting below .200 in their last ten games, and their usually strong relief corps have an ERA of over six.  The Angels are getting solid pitching from the pen.  Seattle's run differential is a very ugly 2.7/7.3 L7 games.  Take the Angels, a good home team, to win.

The Guardians are finally hitting with some authority, climbing to 5th in OPS in the last week.  The Astros, just 4-5 in June, are missing Alvarez, and aren't producing as well as expected lately.  The Astros' 28 year old rookie France starts today.  He has been an effective pitcher but has not received much in the way of run support lately.  He'll face a returning Triston McKenzie who was absolutely lights out in his first game back.  The Guardians' bull pen is, as usual, very strong, significantly better than the Astros' at the moment.  I am a big fan of Mckenzie, so it is great news for a surging Guardians side that he is back and pitching as normal.  take the Guardians at home today.

The White Sox are heating up, sweeping Detroit and taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.  They are starting their ace, but Cease has had a disappointing season so far.  He now could be emerging from his funk if his last start is an indication.  He'll face Eury Perez, the Marlins' young and touted right-hander.  Barely out of his teens, he has a 2.25 ERA to start his career.  His last two starts have been 5 run shutouts.  Perez appears to be limited to 5 innings and Cease has not pitched for length so this game may come down to the bullpen and the offense.  It is no surprise that the Marlins have the better bullpen, but they've also hit a ton lately, now 4th in the league in OPS over the last week.

I am not certain the Cease is "fixed", but it appears Perez can hold his own, and I have more confidence in the Marlins in the later innings at the moment.  Take the underdogs to win on the road on Friday.

The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip.  They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games.  Wells starts for the O's today.  He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season.  He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season.  Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far.  With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today.

The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games.  They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*!

This is an old guy special.  Probable pitchers, Scherzer for the Mets and Morton for the Braves are both almost into their 40’s.  Morton is still crafty but has struggled lately with 3 straight losses, averaging less than 6 innings and almost 4 earned runs in each of those 6 inning appearances(ie a 6.00 ERA pace).  Morton is 1-7 in his L8 starts with 4 days rest. 

The Mets have been on a 4 game skid as of late but are 4-0 in Scherzer's last 4 starts.  Scherzer himself has allowed 1, 1 and 0 earned runs while averaging 6.2 innings in his last three appearances.  Both bullpens had three relievers pitch an inning each last night so neither is tired. 

Between Scherzer’s mastery and the motivation from Tuesday night’s loss to the Braves, the Mets should overcome.  Take the Mets on the Money Line

Davies (Diamondbacks probable pitcher) is slowly getting back up to speed after time on the injury list and rehabbing in the minors.  He has gradually increased his workload to get back to where he was last season.  He now has two starts under his belt since he was shut down at the end of April.  His numbers are all out of whack but if he can get 4 or 5 decent innings in his bullpen can take it from there.  In their last 10 Arizona’s relievers have a 2.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Corbin doesn’t have that kind of support.  He has been working steady but his numbers are atrocious with an ERA that was well above 6 until recently but still is near 5 and a WHIP that spent part of April near 2 and now is 1.48.  His bullpen has an ERA of .655 and a WHIP of 1.81 in their last 10 games, so the pressure is on him to last as long as he is able.

The D-backs have an OPS that is 9th best in the majors that must be eagerly awaiting this match up. 

The Nationals are 11-18 vs. clubs with a winning record while the D-backs are 21-13 vs. clubs with a losing record.  The Nationals also have poor records at home (12-19) and at night (12-20) while the D-backs have winning records in both those situations.  This is a clear choice to pick the Arizona Diamondbacks in Washington Wednesday night.

Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately.  Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form.  He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts.  Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May.  His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid.  Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling.  The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197.

In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue.

The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4.  Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS.  All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night.

Probable pitcher Gibson (Orioles) has been hot lately.  Consecutive wins against Toronto, the Yankees, and Cleveland with an average of 1.33 earned runs against in each start were impressive.  Peralta for the Brewers is coming off two losses, one where he only lasted 2.1 innings against the Giants. In May his ERA was 5.61 and his WHIP ballooned to 1.68.  Neither bullpen has been outstanding over the last 10 but Baltimore’s is coming off a day of rest.  Both bullpens were effective before that last 10.

The Brewers are 29th (second to last) in the majors in both avg and OPS so their bats aren’t going to scare anyone.  And they have a .193 avg against righthanders. 

The Orioles are 20-10 on the road compared to a pedestrian 16-10 at home for the Brewers.  Their night records are 25-10 and 17-16 respectively.  The other interesting stat is that the Orioles are 13-2 when the total is set from 8-8.5.  It all adds up to a solid play for the Orioles as slight underdogs (+107 as of this writing) for Tuesday night. 

The Rangers are a hot ball team at the moment, 8-2 L10, hitting at the top of the league, while allowing 3 or less runs in 8 of 10 games.  They've had 4 recent games with 10 or more runs scored.  Meanwhile the Cardinals were just swept by the Pirates.  Their offense has tanked; they've scored 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games. They have struggled on the road and against left-handed pitching.  Wainwright has 5 starts under his belt since returning from injury.  It has not been smooth sailing.  His last start was an improvement, but he was lucky to allow just 3 runs while giving up 9 hits and a pair of walks. Opposing batters are hitting well over .300 against him in May. His mound opponent is lefty Martin Perez.  After a sensational April he has had VERY mixed results in May, including 2 solid starts along with 3 poor ones. The Rangers have been able to score more than Perez has given up when he has stumbled lately.  Wainwright has been one of the best of his generation of pitchers, but at 41, one wonders how many good starts he has in the tank.  I'll take the Rangers potent offense and solid bullpen to win the day on Monday.

RH Soroka started for the first time in three years, lasting 6 innings and allowing four runs.  That game was against the A's.  Today he will face  RH Gallen and the D-backs.  Gallen wasn't as overpowering in May (3.34 ERA) as he was in April, but he has been absolutely overpowering at home, posting an 0.64 ERA while going 6-0 in six starts.  Arizona is 6-1, hitting well lately and are 7th in OPS vs right-handers this season.  The Braves are in a bit of a slump at 3-5.  They managed just 8 runs total in the Oakland series, and have seen 4 straight Unders.  Both bullpens are effective at the moment.  As promising as Soroka once was, the jury is still out on his early effectiveness.  The Jury is in on Gallen. Gallen is a very fine starter, especially at home.  Take Arizona to win game three of the series today.

The Rangers are hard to beat at home, and have taken two straight from the Mariners.  Make it three on Sunday, although it might not be as easy a win as Saturday's thumping.  Mariners' wunderkind rookie Miller off to a very impressive career start, spiraled back down to earth courtesy of the Yankees, who tore him up with a pair of homers and eight runs over four plus innings.  We will see how the Kid responds against an even better-hitting team.  The Rangers are the top offense lately, hitting .304/.855 OPS over the last 15 games.  Texas will run out May's AL Pitcher of the Month in  right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.  He was 4-0 for the month with an 0.96 ERA and 31 strikeouts.  Very good lenth in his starts, including a complete game in his second last appearance.

The Mariners have won just one of four games, allowing a pair of tens and a sixteen run game, highly irregular for a team that prides itself on pitching.  Seattle is 27th in offense over the last week, and 26th against right-handers this season. Irregardless of how Miller pitches, I am on Eovaldi and the Rangers' offense on Sunday.  Take Texas to win.

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change.  The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks.  Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's.  Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest,  if it weren't for the long ball.  He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May.  He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well.  He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out.  Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts.  The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately.  The A's pen is the worst in the league.  Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2.  10*!

While the Cubs took 2 of 3 from the Rays, it wasn't the offense leading the way; Chicago scored just 6 runs in the series.  They will need more runs than that with Taillon on the mound.  It has been a remarkably poor month for the right-hander, with zero wins and an ERA over 10.00 in May.  The opposition is hitting a very robust .351 for the month.  His opponent has been the reverse.  Padres' righty Wacha took a few games to get going, but he has been as good as anyone in the MLB in May, giving up just 3 runs in 32 innings pitched.  Add in a very solid bullpen, and it is no wonder the Padres are favored.  Their hitting?  Still surprisingly poor.  They have had the odd high scoring outing lately, but about the best you can say is that they are at least better than the Cubs.   They should get their licks in against Taillon and the Cubs' bullpen.  Chicago isn't very good as a road team this year.  Take San Diego to win this one going away.

After years in the wilderness, Chase Anderson is pitching like it is 2017 when he went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA.  It is a small sample size so it might be a gamble to wager on continued success, but his mound opponent is hardly tearing up the ball diamond. The Royals' Lyles has had an extremely disappointing season, giving up a run an inning and with an ERA of over eleven in his last three starts.  The 4-6 Rockies are a poor road team, and were just swept by Arizona, however the 3-7 Royals continue to be shockingly poor home team.  KC is just 13-30 this year vs right-handed pitching.  Neither offense has impressed but the Rockies are at least hitting for average lately.  There is little to choose from between the bullpens.  I am wagering on the underdog Rockies today, with Anderson continuing in his winning ways for at lest one more game.

The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately.  Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him.  With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians.  In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss.  Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77.  Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well.  The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS.

Both bullpens have been excellent lately.  In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47.  The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10.

All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair.  Go with the under to start June right.

The Guardians’ hot young pitcher Bibee has had a great start to his first year.  With a little run support in his last outing against the Cards, the 2 hits he allowed over 6 innings should have provided him a result but all he got was one run and no decision. Two games before that he only allowed 2 hits over 7.2 innings but still ended up with no decision as he was only supported with 1 run.   

The Guardians started off the season near the bottom of the majors in hitting but lately they have turned it around.  Since Bibee last pitched they have been averaging 6.5 runs and 12 hits per game.  This alone should put him over the top but combine it with a bullpen that has had a 1.31 ERA over the last 10 and a miniscule .47 over the last 5 and you have a recipe for success for the Guardians and Bibee.

Pitcher Lopez and the Twins might have something to say about this but their hitting has been in the bottom third of the majors for most of the season.  Lopez started out the season strong but has had mixed results as of late with 3 of his last 7 starts averaging more than one earned run against/inning.  Pick the underdog Guardians for a close win on the Money Line.

As predicted, the Brewers picked on one of the Jays' struggling starters yesterday.  Today, I expect pay-back from Toronto.  Peralta starts for Milwaukee, and his May results were very mixed.  Two of his last three starts were outright poor, including a 2+ inning 10 run debacle last time out.  He has struggled on the road this season as well.   The Brewers aren't getting the same level of relief pitching we have grown accustomed to, with an ERA approaching 5.00 in the last ten games.   Gausman has been super sharp in 9 of 11 starts.  I am banking on another fine one today.  The Jays' offense has been something of a disappointment this season, but their big bats look to be waking up, led by Bichette and Springer at the moment.  They are hitting right-handers at a muscular .327 pace in their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are as usual struggling to score runs.  Look for the Jays to take it to Milwaukee, especially early. 

A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight.  The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances.  Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts.  The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses.  Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately.  The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games.  Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games.  With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today.  Take the Twins and Astros to go under.

Teheran, who we have seen very little of in the past couple of years, looked sharp in his return allowing a single run over five innings in his first start of the season.  Manoah has not looked himself at all to date, and doesn't seem to be improving.  He has an ugly 6.45 ERA in May, averaging barely over four innings a start, with equal K's and BB's this month.  He has  been particularly bad at home.  The Blue Jays still haven't gelled as a team and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both offense and relief pitching have been uneven. The Brewers, also 4-6, are as usual light-hitting, but aren't getting the pitching they usually have, including an average bullpen lately.  The Jays are a medium favorite, but I am just not confident that Manoah's troubles are over yet.  Look for a second strong outing from a voice from the past, and take the Brewers to at least keep this one close. Take Milwaukee +1 1/2.  9 stars!

I was humbled Monday night with a surprise win by the Guardians over the Orioles.  The Orioles are too good for this to happen two nights in a row and they will be burning for revenge.  Expected starter for the Guardians, Quantrill, will be no match for Gibson.  Quantrill has only won 1 of his last 6.  In his last start he lasted 4 innings and gave up 6 runs against the woeful White Sox.  At night he is 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA.  On the other hand Gibson has been hot in his last 2, winning both and only giving up 1 earned run between the two games.  And at night he is 5-2 this season with a 2.84 ERA.

In the Guardians win Monday night they used two of their bullpen aces while the Orioles rested their top relievers from their formidable bullpen as they seemed to throw in the towel. 

At the plate the Guardians have been struggling this season with the 28th avg and the 30th OPS in the majors.  The Orioles are a respectable 15th and 12th respectively.

Even though I am not picking the over/under for this game it is interesting to note that when the total is set at 8-8.5 the Orioles are 21-7 while the Guardians are 11-12 this season.  It all adds up to a solid pick for the Orioles on the Money Line.

The Rangers shutout the Tigers on Monday but face a tough young right hander off a very fine start in Faedo.  He struck out ten with 0 BBs in that outing, but has given up more than his share of the long ball in his first four starts.  The Rangers are very solid power hitters, so he will have his hands full.  For the Rangers lefty Martin Perez starts.  He appears to have found his form after two weeks in the wilderness.  He has been sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 14 innings pitched.  The Rangers are in the hitting and pitching groove, with a fine run differential, scoring 6.4 runs a game while allowing less than three  over the last two weeks.  They've been getting great innings from their starters, and the pen, with rest, has been much better.  The Tigers struggle vs lefties, and Perez is a good one when he is on.  Detroit's bullpen, which has had some fine weeks, has regressed slightly with a 4.65 ERA L10 games.

Tuesday's starting pitchers are a toss-up, but I'll take the Rangers offense to seal the day, and the improved pen to hold on for the victory.   Rangers to win, possibly late.

The Rangers have the top offense in the league at the moment and are getting fine starting pitching lately.  So, how do you get around the Rangers' one weak area, their sketchy bullpen?  Just start Eovaldi, who in addition to a 6-2 record and a 2.40 ERA, has averaged over eight innings pitched in his last five starts.  The Tigers aren't even that much of an offensive threat, presently 27th in Runs scored/9.  They'll start lefty Matt Boyd, who as struggled more often than not, with short appearances and a 6.11 ERA in May.  The Tigers pen hasn't been much better than the Rangers lately, and will likely be more heavily used on Monday.  Watch out Matt Boyd.  The Rangers have hit a very hot .338 vs left-handers in their last ten games.  Texas to win.

The Orioles lost a rare home series vs the Rangers, so will be all in today to bounce back against the 4-6 Guardians.  The Orioles are a fine hitting team, facing the worst in the league at runs scored/9.  True to form, the Guardians are batting just .212 against right handers over their last 10 games.  Cleveland's young left-hander Logan Allen (3.31 ERA) has impressed this year, but he has also been a bit lucky.  His hit totals are much higher than they should be, and he has seen his WHIP climb from 1.09 in April to 1.62 in May.  Orioles righty Wells struggled against the Yankees last time out.  He is very successful at limiting hits, but has been a victim of the long ball.  The Guardians trail all teams by a wide margin in home runs this season.  Wells has been much better at home this year. 

There is nothing wrong with the Guardians' pitching but you have to score runs to win games.  Given the hits totals that Allen has given up lately, I expect the O's to take advantage and  put up some runs.  Take Baltimore, 16-10 at home, to win Game one of the series.

The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs.  They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week.  Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May.  Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month.  The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers.  The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately.

No one enjoys being swept and the Cubs aren't hitting badly at the moment.  They'll get there chances if Ashcraft continues to struggle.  It is quite likely that the Reds will run up the score in the later innings.  Sunday's total is very average.  I'm wagering on the over in this one.

The Giants have taken three straight from the Brewers in convincing style, outscoring them 23-2.  They'll start their ace right-hander Cobb, who is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in May.  The Giants are getting solid pitching and hitting lately but it is the bullpen that has absolutely shone, with a miniscule ERA over the last ten games.  The much-injured Brewers are giving up nearly double the runs they've scored over the last seven games, hitting below .200 for that time period.  Sunday's starter Rea (4.71 ERA) is a stand-in, but has been a nice surprise for the Brewers.  His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Astros.  I don't expect he can maintain that level over the long term, and the Brewers' very depleted pen has struggled more than usual lately. The Giants have now won eight of ten games. I'm wagering that they will complete the sweep on Sunday. Giants to win.

These two teams rang up a ton of runs on Friday.  It is unlikely that the Royals at least will have the same success vs Josiah Gray on Saturday.  He has bee very steady since his second start with a fine ERA and solid numbers of innings pitched.  The only concern with the right-hander is his walks, with a very hefty 15 in May alone.  He will face Singer who has been a major disappointment for the Royals this year.  Singer has been hit hard in recent games with just one quality start in May.  Opposing batters are teeing off at an alarming +.300 rate this season.  He also is prone to walks.

The 1-6 Royals continued their struggles at home on Friday.  The Nats are now 4-2, and leading the league in batting avg. over the last two weeks.  The Royals are hitting just .176 against right handers over the last two weeks, and firmly in the cellar for overall offense this season.  Neither bullpen is particularly effective.  I'll take the better-hitting Nationals, with a more consistent starter to win again on the road on Saturday.

The hard hitting Rangers embarrassed the Orioles at home on Friday, but the the O's are a tough out at home.  Righty Kremer starts for Baltimore, and he has really turned things around in  May, finishing 3-0 with an ERA of under 2.00 against some very tough opponents.  He has had good success vs the Rangers in the past.  The same cannot be said for Rangers' starter Heaney.  The Orioles roughed him up for 7 runs over 2+ innings early in the season.  Since then, Heaney has pitched well, including a 6 inning shutout in his last start.

Rangers batters are on a tear lately, but the Orioles are no slouches on offense and hit left handers well.  One deciding  advantage for the O's is their bullpen, 2nd in the league for the season and well set up for today's game.  The Rangers haven't had solid relief pitching. lately or for the season.  I'll take the Orioles to revenge yesterday's loss, and while it may take until the later innings, to win game two of their home series

Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday.  Keller has been exceptional lately.  His K to BB  ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it.  Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May.  Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent  success vs right handed pitching.  The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total.

As poor as Corbin has been over the last couple of years, it is easy to overlook his recent results.  He has bee consistent, delivering three six-inning starts allowing just two runs in each, while cutting down on the long ball and BBs.  Meanwhile Lyles, with an 8.86 ERA in May, hasn't had a winning start this season, and consistently struggles to get out of the first inning.  Add in the Royals' dreadful home record and their inability to hit and you have to question the Nationals as an underdog today. The 3-2 Nationals are leading the league in batting average over the last two weeks, while the 1-6 Royals are hitting just .195 collectively in their last fifteen days.  I'm jumping on Corbin and the Nationals to continue with their recent success and win on the road.

The Cubs have won two straight vs the Mets.  They are an above .500 home team and have veteran right hander Hendricks back after a lengthy absence.  Let's hope he can inspire them to greater days, including a three game sweep.  Hendricks has looked very sharp in his rehab outings.  Mets' starter Carrasco is just one start back from rehab himself, and it wasn't a beauty.  The veteran has struggled as his season's voluminous ERA reveals.  Pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year, with a multitude still on the IL.  They aren't inspiring with the bats lately either.  Meanwhile the Cubbies have stepped it up on offense lately and are getting solid relief pitching L5 games.  Take the Cubs to complete the home sweep of the Mets. 9*!

Both the Cubs’ Stroman and the Mets’ Senga had two strong outings and one weak outing in May.  They are both averaging a little over 5 innings/start and their May ERAs are comparable.  Stroman’s overall stats are better (although his win record isn’t) as he had a scorching start to the season and he has many more years experience than Senga so the edge has to go to Stroman.  Their bullpens have almost identical ERAs and WHIPs for May although the Mets bullpen is maybe a little more rested. 

But this is a night game and the Cubs’ batters are 1st and 3rd in the majors for average and OPS at night.  The Mets are way down in the twenties.  And the clincher, the Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 against the Cubs (20-41 in their last 61). 

The Cubs’ bats have been hot for the last 15 days as they are 4th in the majors in OPS while the Mets are 15th.

So whether Senga or Stroman have one of their strong outings or a weaker one, both bullpens are capable of picking up the slack but the Cubs’ bats are almost certain to carry the day.  The Cubs are the pick.

The Giants are on a roll, winning 6 of 7, while the 4-6 Twins have taken a step back lately.  Neither team would be considered a hitting powerhouse, but both are running out premium starters on Tuesday.  SF right-hander Cobb has two shutouts in his last three starts.  He gave up a pair of runs in three plus innings last time out, but otherwise has delivered innings and quality in his starts with a 1.02 ERA in May.  The Twins' Gray has a very fine 1.64 ERA for the season, but has regressed slightly in May, allowing 6 runs over 14 innings with an ERA of 3.44 this month.

The Giants have been getting top relief pitching lately, better than usual, and better than the Twins.  I like the way Cobb is pitching lately and like also the direction the Giants are going in.  Gray has been very good, but has taken a small step back in May. I 'll take the underdog Giants to steal this one on the road.

Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 and 9-1 in their last 10.  They are on fire.  Milwaukee is at the other end of the spectrum, 1-4 in their last 5 and trending down in every way.  Both teams will start recent callups.  The Brewers’ Rea is 0-3 in this latest stint and has an ERA of 6.97 in his last 3 with a WHIP of 1.65.  He has trended down after a reasonable start to his callup.  France has only been up for 3 starts but has been trending up after a shaky start with only 1 earned run in his last two starts.

If either of these two struggle the Astros have the bullpen to deal with it, while the Brewers don’t.  In the Astros' last 10 their relievers have an ERA of 1.64 and a WHIP of 1.06.  The Brewers ERA is 4.81 and their WHIP is 1.22 over the same stretch.

In terms of offense, the Astros have the 4th best OPS and 3rd best avg. in the majors over the last 15 days.  The Brewers are struggling with the 22nd and 27th best respectively.  The Astros won big yesterday as slight favorites and will be the victors again today with even better odds.

Two of the League's lesser light meet up on Monday.  The Tigers are 4 games above .500 in May but they struggle on the road.  The Royals have a horrible home record and are very poor vs right-handers (12-26) this season.  They face a  very tough righty in Lorenzen who has been very sharp lately, with just two runs allowed over twenty innings pitched in his last three starts.  He'll face another right-hander in  an underachieving Brady Singer.  He has been better in his last two starts but has also been hit extremely hard at times this season, hence the bloated 7.09 ERA.  Neither team is hitting well, but the Tigers are at least over .200 vs right lately.  KC is hitting  a startling .181 in the same time frame. Both bullpens have been at least average lately, although the Royals especially haven't been getting many innings  out or their starters. I favor the Tigers on Monday.  Lorenzen has been very dependable; Singer has the talent but has been wildly inconsistent this season.    Take the Tigers, a slight underdog, to win on the road.

The 7-3 Rangers travel to Pittsburgh to face the 3-6 Pirates.  Dunning (4-0, 0.89 WHIP) starts for Texas.   Dunning has taken a huge step this year.  He is consistent and delivers length in his starts.  His ERA in May is an impressive 1.59.  He will face a recent call-up, Pirates righty Ortiz.  With two rough short starts so far, he has more walks than K's to date.  The Rangers are top four in OPS over the last two weeks while the Pirates are down in the depths at 28th.  In spite of the Rangers' poor bullpen, I am taking Texas on Monday.  With superior offense and a much stronger starter, they will steal this one on the road.

The Red Sox have won four straight games, two of them vs the Padres. Meanwhile, the Padres are an unbelievable 1-9.  About the only things the Padres have going are their bullpen (1.35 ERA L10) and Wacha' starts. The right-hander looks just as good as he did last year, allowing just 1 run over 19 innings, with an ERA of 0.47 in May.  He will face Corey Kluber, who hasn't had many quality starts this season.  The last three have been pretty ho-hum.  His ERA is close to 6.00 this month.  It is hard to imagine but the Padres are dead last in hitting over the last two weeks, however Boston's bats aren't quite as hot as they have been, they are less effective vs right-handers, and their bull pen continues to let them down.  Look for the Padres to  salvage something from this series.  They won on Wacha's last start.  I believe they will win again today.

The 8-2 Cardinals' offense was kept in check on Friday, but they have been tough to contain lately with 9, 16, and 18 run efforts in their last 6 games.  They will face righty Syndergaard on Saturday.  I am not a fan of Thor these days although his last couple of starts have been OK.  The Cardinals got a good look at him at the end of April and have had success against him in the past.  Don't count on many innings from him.  Meanwhile Cards' left hander Mikolas seems to have re-found his form after a rough start.  Three of his last four appearances have been one run efforts.  St. Louis is a hitting machine at the moment, leading the league in OPS and HRs/ L15.  They have been especially tough on right handers.  The Cards have a better bullpen at the moment as the Dodgers' has been uncharacteristically poor other than on Friday night.

Take a resurgent Cardinals team to bounce back at home.

The Twins have been putting a charge in the ball lately, nearly doubling the Angels in runs scored.  While the Angels are usually the better hitting team, they may not get many chances against the Twins' ace Joe Ryan.  He has done it all this year, but what has he done recently?  How does a 1.00 ERA, 2 runs over 16 innings, and 21 strikeouts to 3 base on balls in May sound.  He'll face Reid Detmers, the Angels very young lefty.  Detmers has had some moments this year, but they haven't been lately; 12 runs over 13+ innings in his last three games.  The Twins haven't been as good on the road this year, but the presence of Ryan should tip the balance.  The Angels big bats are just as susceptible to a dominant starter.  Minnesota will have their chances to keep swinging those hot bats with Detmers and his 6+ ERA in May on the mound.  Take the Twins to win on the road. 9 *!

The Jays play for Kikuchi.  he is 5-0 this season.  Coming off a tough and controversial series against the Yankees, the Jays will be determined to add to their 7-1 record in Kikuchi’s last 8 starts.  The Jays are also 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Orioles. 

At the plate the Jays are 9th in the majors over the last 15 days while the Orioles are 22nd.  And on top of that the Orioles just don’t give Gibson any run support.  In his last two starts the Orioles have been shutout.  Even though the Orioles have a superior bullpen, it can’t score any runs.  Gibson’s streak of 3 straight losses should continue.  I’m riding the Kikuchi wave on this one.

The struggling White Sox have won two straight games vs the Guardians, and have their ace Dylan Cease on the mound on Thursday.  Cease had a couple of very off games, but he looked great in his last start.  When he is on, there is no one better.  The Guardians' lefty Logan Allen has been a good find.  He has been solid so far, but has given up more than his share of hits in May, and while it hasn't come back to burn him yet, he is living on borrowed time if he keeps it up.  The Guardians could be down two significant pieces on offense.  The can ill afford to lose anyone considering the way they are hitting.  The White Sox have been hitting better recently especially when facing left-handers.  The bullpen has been a real sore point this year, but it has been much improved in their last ten games.
The Sox are better at home, and can expect another fine start from Cease.  I'm wagering on a rare White Sox sweep tomorrow. 

After a rough outing, the Orioles bounced back on Tuesday, holding a solid Rangers offense to 3 runs.  Baltimore is a dominant home team (14-6 this season) facing a .500 Rangers road team.  Bradish starts for the O's.  He has had mixed results to date, but has some up side and his last start was a 6 inning 1 run gem.  He will face Griffin Canning, who's starts are going in the wrong direction.  With an ERA of over 10.00 in May, he has allowed more than a run an inning.  He lasted just 3+ innings in his latest appearance.  There is no doubting the Rangers' offense, but the Orioles are right there with them, one position behind in runs/9. Baltimore has been getting especially fine relief lately, while the Rangers pen numbers are an inflated 6.29 L10 games.
Bradish was brilliant down the stretch last year, and looks to be re-finding that form.  I am wagering on the Orioles today.  They are a fine young hitting team with great success in limiting opposition totals on most days.  Baltimore wins at home. 

The 2-8 Pirates fell out of the winning tree a couple of weeks ago and are barely hanging on to a lower branch at the moment.  They are hitting well south of .200 L10 and are just 1-4 in Detroit. Rich Hill has pitched pretty well for an elder statesman.  His last two appearances haven't been his best however, giving up 7 runs in 9 innings pitched.  Hill won't overpower anyone, and length may be an issue.

The Tigers shut the Pirates out on a fine pitching performance on Tues.  They could have another on Wednesday with Mr. Consistent on the mound.  In his last 5 starts, lefty Edwin Rodriguez has thrown 34 innings, allowing just 2 ER.  No one can match him in innings pitched or ERA this season.  The 6-4 Tigers are no hitting powerhouse, but they are better than the Pirates at the moment, and are getting great relief from the pen lately.  Not that Rodriguez needs much help. The Pirates are big on shooting themselves in the foot in recent games.  Take the Tigers to win at home on Wednesday.

The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders.

Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. 

The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener.

For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings.

Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10*

It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games.  The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine.  Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday.  He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's.  (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's).  Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams.  The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances.  The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately.  Take Monday's game to go under the total.

Neither of Sunday's starters was especially good in their previous start, but my money is on Sandoval to bounce back.  The left-hander has thrown some fine starts this year, with solid length.  The Guardians' rookie right hander Bibee pitched well in his first two starts but got a major league comeuppance in his last appearance.  In spite of their 6 run eighth inning on Saturday, the Guardians are still in the doldrums on offense, averaging just over 2 runs a game in their nine games previous to Saturday.  They've struggled at home this year and haven't had much recent success vs left-handed pitching.  The Angels are a much better hitting team, and very tough on vs right handers.  Look For the Halos to bounce back with a road victory.

The Cubs won Game 1, but they'll face the ace on Saturday, with Twins' lefty Joe Ryan coming to the mound.  Ryan has been terrific this season with a 2.45 era.  He has allowed just 2 runs over 12 innings in May. His opponent Wesneski has really come around  after a rough start, pitching into the 6th and allowing just a a single run in each of three starts. He can match Ryan with a very low 1.50 ERA in May.

The Twins have just moved into the cellar in OPS/ L7 days.  The Cubs are again creeping up the ranks all the way to 6th in offense over the last week.  The Cubs are also getting especially fine work from the relievers.  Ryan and the Twins are moderately favored, but I am wagering on the relatively unknown Wesneski and the superior offense of the Cubs to steal this one on the road.

While his ERA wouldn't suggest it, Tyler Anderson has had some good starts this year, including his last two.  It looks like he is back on track after a three game rough patch.  Cleveland's young lefty Logan Allen is off to a solid first season, but he was hit harder in his third start, and may be due for a rookie regression today.  The Guardians' main problem is offense: they just plain can't hit, especially left-handers recently (.141 BA L10).  The Angels' forte is hitting.  They are a top eight offense, and have had good results vs southpaws of late. While their starters have struggled, the Angels have been getting very good relief pitching recently.  Look for  another solid start for Anderson and an Angels' road win.

All of a sudden the Royals can hit.  And win games at home.  They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals.  Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare.  The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all.  Clevinger will start for the White Sox.  He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year.
The bullpens are both in the dumpster this season, with the Sox' particularly poor lately.  The Royals have scored 23 runs in three games against the White Sox, but the White Sox will likely get their chances on Thursday.  I expect another high-scoring game. Take the total to go over.

Two fine  starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season.  He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers  to date.  The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better.  His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league.  Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid.  Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*!

The Cleveland offense is utterly in doldrums so it will take a very good pitching effort to earn a win.  They are particularly poor vs lefties lately.   Rookie right-hander Battenfield (4.07 ERA) pitched well in his last appearance, but it hasn't been all smooth sailing so far.  Still, he has had a reasonable start to his first season.

The Tigers' offense is only marginally better  than the Guardians' for the season, but they have stepped it up lately.  They'll run out their ace lefty Rodriguez, who has allowed just a minuscule two runs in his last thirty-five innings pitched.  Mr. Dependable just needs some run support.   The Tigers' pen has been performing well of late, although Rodriguez, off an eight inning start, may not need much support from the relievers.

Rodriguez as an underdog against one of the weakest hitting teams in the league?  Jump on the 6-4 Tigers to steal this one on the road.

Seattle thought they had one in the bag last night as they led 1-0 most of the way. That run was scored in the bottom of the first, but unfortunately for the Mariners, it would also be the last time they crossed the plate. Texas rallied for two runs in the seventh and got the win, continuing their hot start to the season.

But it should be pointed out that not only did M’s starter Logan Gilbert shut the Rangers out for six innings last night, he had a perfect game going as well. At one point, seven straight Rangers struck out. 

Tonight, I’m expecting another strong outing from a Mariners starting pitcher, that being George Kirby. He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and has a 0.98 WHIP this season. 

Additionally, Kirby is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four prior starts vs. Texas, all of them coming last season, his rookie campaign.

Andrew Heaney is on the mound tonight for the Rangers. He is coming off his worst outing of 2023 and has a 4.41 ERA in 15 career starts vs Seattle. After allowing six runs to Arizona in that last start, Heaney’s ERA is sitting at 5.52 for the season. 10*

Man, was Marlins lefty Garrett roughed up in his last game, especially after a good start to his season. 11 runs, and4 HR allowed in 4+ innings has got to rattle a young pitcher's confidence.  He hasn't pitched for length, which could be a problem today.  While the Marlins usually have a strong bullpen, a 14 inning game yesterday and a bullpen day on Saturday will leave the pen seriously short-staffed.  Arizona starter Zac Gallen has hit his stride.  After a poor opening day, he has been tough to beat, with an impressive 57-5 K/BB ratio and a tiny .84 WHIP.  The Diamondbacks have impressed on offense  and are ranked 6th in the league at the moment.  Their weak spot has been their bullpen, but Gallen will likely give them length as a starter.  The Marlins are again a light hitting team, ranked dead last in Runs/9.   After that fourteen inning game and travel time, they could be a little weary.  Take the D-backs on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Rays' bats aren't quite as formidable in recent games, but they still have the top offense for the season.  They will face some stiff opposition in the home-side Orioles, but, not to fear, the Ray's will run out their ace McClanahan on Monday.  He is a premier lefty off to a banner season.  He is 6-0, .203 ERA, over fifty strikeouts, etc. etc.  There is no reason to suggest a change from consistent quality.  The Orioles' Gibson is a different story.  Anywhere from superlative to poor is possible, and his last two starts have gone in the wrong direction.  Both teams have solid pens, good offense, but the Rays have that irritating ability to manufacture a win in almost any situation.  Tampa hasn't had much success in Baltimore, but I will take McClanahan against anyone.  Rays, as usual, to win.

The Twins and Guardians both start solid pitchers on Sunday.  Joe Ryan is 5-0, and off a 6 inning shutout in his last appearance.  Quantrill also had a fine start last time out, and both teams are getting quality relief pitching.  The Guardians have the worst offense in the league, and while they "broke out" for four runs on Saturday, they have otherwise managed just nine runs in their previous five games.  The Twins aren't hitting well either at just .204 over their last 10 games.  The under is a result in nine of the last ten Guardians games, and is also 11-4 when these two teams meet.  Let's not buck the trend today.  Take the Under on Sunday.

The Twins' starter Ryan has given length, strikeouts, and consistency this year, not to mention wins.  He is 5-0 to date and the Twins are 9-1 in his last ten starts.  The Guardians' Quantrill (4.73 ERA) has also had some fine starts mixed in, but he has been unable to string two together.  The Twins haven't been hitting for average lately but they have at least been better than Cleveland. With the Guardians sporting the lowest OPS in the league and averaging just under three runs a game L6, a second Guardians win in a row doesn't seem likely. Cleveland has been especially poor at home to date.  I am all over the Twins in Sunday's showdown! Take Minnesota to bounce back on the road.

The Red Sox' bats cooled slightly on Friday, but man, are they hitting well lately. Now 7-0, they crushed the Jays' pitching in their series sweep. Boston has a collective batting average of .320 over the last 10 games while getting at least average pitching.  Kluber has had his struggles this year but his last two starts have shown improvement, allowing a respectable 4 runs over 11+ innings.  His mound opponent Bailey Falter (5.01 ERA) has done just that, faltered this season.  He has an opposing Batters' BA of .281 and has given up too many home runs.  The Phillies were punished for poor pitching in their last series, giving up  a massive 36 runs in 3 games.  The bullpen has struggled to the tune of 5.77 ERA L10.

The Sox are an underdog for no reason that I can see.  Jump on Boston to win.

The Red Sox' bats are redhot and I am not convinced that Falter (5.01 ERA) or the the Phillies Bullpen (5.77 ERA L10) will be able to cool them off.  Boston is hitting a scorching .320 collective BA. and roughed up some very good Jays starters in their last series sweep.  While Kluber has looked better in his last two starts, his overall numbers are not strong. The Phillies gave up 36 runs in their series against the Dodgers.  Although the number is high, here is a great opportunity for a "total" victory today.  Take the Sox and Phillies to go over the total today.

It is a battle of the also-rans as the A's meet the Royals at home.  The Royals have stepped it up in the bats department, hitting lefties especially well  (.294 BA L10).   A's bats are not thriving, nor is the bullpen. Friday's starters have both had some success but both are wild!  Keller in spite of equal parts K's and walks, still has an ERA of 3.56, and is off a fine start.   A's lefty Muller (6.28 ERA)  does have a couple of solid starts, including his last one, mixed in with some very poor ones.  The Royals bullpen has been at least  fair lately. Not so the A's. The A's are just 2-8, and have been struggling vs right handers (.190 BA L10).

Look for KC to flaunt their recently found offense again, and win Friday's game at home.

Reds starter Hunter Greene has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just one run in fourteen innings.  He is learning to pitch this year and fulfilling his enormous potential.  White Sox starter Lance Lynn was better in his last start, but the season has been a real struggle for the most part.  He is getting K's but has been a victim of the long ball.

The White Sox have been especially poor on the road at 4-12, struggling on offense, and barely ahead of the last place A's in bullpen ERA (7.00 ERA L10). The Reds have shown improvement lately, winning six of their last ten games.  They are three games above .500 at home and are getting solid relief pitching.

I'm wagering on Greene and the Reds today, winning at home.

The Brewers have lost two straight to the Rockies and have scored just 3 runs in 3 games.  Let's hope that the perpetually under-powered Brew Crew can respond in the rarefied air of Colorado today and get back on track.   They'll start veteran lefty Wade Miley today, who has pitched for length and consistency, with five straight quality starts and an ERA of 1.87.  He has limited the long ball, a definite advantage in Denver.
The Rockies are just 23rd ranked in offense and are having pitching issues this season.  Seabold (5.27 ERA), usually a reliever, will start, so it could be a bullpen day for the Rockies. The Rockies have won 3 straight games at home, but that has not been the norm.  The Brewers have much the superior starter and pen today.  Look for their offense to step up as they win on the road today.

Off a loss on Wednesday, the Orioles need a win to keep their series winning streak alive.  The Royals can celebrate a rare home victory.  They have been worse than terrible in home games this year. The Orioles will send out young left-hander Grayson Rodriguez.  After a pair of poor outings, Rodriguez has now thrown the opposite; a pair of five inning shutouts. He had 9 K's last time out, most of them on a devastating change up.  The Royals starter Lyles has not lived up to expectations so far, struggling in a number of his starts.  His last was his worst, giving up 7 runs over 4 innings.  The long ball has been an issue; 7 of them in his last three starts.
The Orioles are 11-5 on the road this year, and have a significant edge on the Royals on offense and in relief pitching.  These two starters appear to be going in opposite directions.  Rodriguez, if he is on, has dominant stuff.  Look for the O's to rebound and seal another series with a win.

While Bieber hasn't been lights out as expected this season, he has been very steady.  He limited the Yankees to just 2 runs in 7 innings earlier in April.  Yankees' starter Schmidt has yet to deliver consistently, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits in his last appearance.  The Yankees beat the Guardians on Tuesday but are a miserable 3-7, and barely over .500 at home.  Injuries are  killing them, including Judge, Stanton and 8, count'em, pitchers.  It is very surprising to see two supposed contenders in the lower third of the league in Runs/9.  The Yankees are batting just .216 vs righties and face a very good one in Bieber.  Take Cleveland, with better pitching on Wednesday, to battle back and win on the road. 10*

I don’t see any reason why the Orioles don’t roll in tonight’s series opener against the Royals. They are simply the better team and have the edge on the mound - both in terms of the starting pitching matchup and the bullpen. 

Baltimore comes into Tuesday with a 19-9 overall record. Across baseball, only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh have a better win percentage. Going back to 2021, the O’s are 8-0 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Five of those wins have come this season.

Since the start of last season, the Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet on.

On the flip side, you’ve got Kansas City, a team that is just 1-12 at home this year including 0-7 as a dog of +125 to +175.

Wells is going for Baltimore. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and the team is 3-0. Yarbrough had a decent first start for KC, but this team’s bullpen is horrendous (5.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP). The Orioles are top five in bullpen ERA and WHIP. 10* 

It is Strider vs Reyes in Game one of the Braves/Mets double header today.  Strider has been arguably the best pitcher at this point in the season.  Reyes, just back from Triple A, has been sharp in relief but isn't stretched out as a starter.  Game one could be something of a bullpen day, which is problematic given the Mets' injury-riddled pitching staff.
I like Strider's chances against anyone, and he has certainly been getting run support, 18 in his last two appearances.  The Braves have a very dynamic offense.  The Mets' bats have been sulking of late.  I expect another huge game from Strider.  Take the Braves on the run line at -1 1/2.

This is a favorable line for a Cubs/Marlins match-up.  To begin with, Lefty Justin Steele has pitched as well as anyone in the league to date.  4 wins, a WHIP of 0.89, 25 innings pitched and just 4 runs given up.  He'll face Hoeing, fresh off a short poor first of the season appearance for a Marlins team starving for starters.  The Cubs have lost 2 straight against the Marlins and will be out to break up a sweep.  They have much the better offense to date, ranking in the top ten compared to the Marlins' bottom three in runs scored.  The Marlins have had recent success vs left-handers, but the Cubs are tough on right handed pitching and could feast on Hoeing. Call it a draw between the pens, but Steele will likely need much less relief support.  The Cubs have been a solid road team to date.  It will be bounce back day in Miami, with Chicago winning on the road.

After a slump in offense, the Twins have put 6 or more runs on the board in their last 4 straight games.  Today's starter, Ober, obviously didn't appreciate being sent down after a fine spring, returning to the bigs with a very fine first start, allowing just 1 run in 5+ innings.  Royals' righty Keller's last two starts have been short and not so sweet, giving up 7 runs in 8 innings. The Royals don't hit well and the pen is struggling.  Not to mention, the Twins are the best offense in the league lately and are feasting on right-handers at the moment.  Take the Twins on the Run line at -1.5.  10*!

The Mets are just 1-5, losing their last series vs the Nats.  The visiting Braves just swept the Marlins and are 5-0 on the road.  The Mets have an shocking number of pitchers, starting and relieving, on the injured list.  Peterson is healthy if ineffective, with 3 of his last 4 starts outright poor (7.31 ERA).  He'll face another lefty, Atlanta ace Max Fried.  His last two appearances have both been shutouts. He has a miniscule ERA of 0.60, allowing zero home runs.
The hard-hitting Braves are roughing up left-handers (.303 last 5 games), while the Mets are just .184 in recent appearances vs southpaws.  I really like the Braves' chances on Friday and the line is reasonable considering the match-up.  Take Atlanta to win on the road again.

Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings.  He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense.  In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats.  The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but  haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result).  Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games.  With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under.

The Tigers' lefty Wentz is not off to a fine start with just one of his four appearances in the "better than acceptable " category.  The Orioles got to him for five runs in four innings less than a week ago.  As far as the Orioles' starter goes, you never really know how Gibson is going to pitch.  Anywhere from outstanding to outstandingly poor is possible.  He is however 4-0 to date, and he struck out eleven Tigers in a six inning, one run appearance just a few games ago.

The O's are 8-2, sweeping the Tigers in their home series.  The Tigers are 2-5, awful on offense and just poor in runs-against.  Baltimore is hitting well, fourth in the league at the moment and very good vs lefties lately.  The Tigers are hitting just .161 of late vs right handers.  While Detroit has been getting excellent relief pitching, one of the few teams with a better pen is the Orioles (0.86 ERA L/5).  Take the Orioles to win outright.

The Padres may have the lineup, but it is the Cubs making all the noise so far.  Decent pitching, solid offense, and while the pen has been a bit shaky lately, it has been better than the Padres' (7.79 ERA).  Lefty Smyly has been lights-out in his last three starts, including a 7+ 1 hit shutout in his last start.  On the other hand , Padres' starter Wacha's last two starts have been anything but quality, allowing 21 hits and 12 runs in just 8+ innings.  The Padres are 0-4 vs left-handers and they'll face a tough one today.  It is hard to wager against the Padres' potential, but it is the right move for Wednesday's game.  Take the Cubs to win.

The White Sox, now 0-5, have managed just six runs in their last four games.  They are hitting just .119 vs left handers in their last five innings.  They'll face a lefty who has appeared to re-find his form after a poor season last year.  Three of four of Kikuchi's starts have been of the quality variety so far, allowing just three runs in fourteen innings, with a very good strikeout to walk ratio.  He will face Kopech, who has struggled in three of four starts.  Eight home runs and fourteen walks in twenty innings won't cut it.  The Jays got plenty of production from the tail end of the order on Tuesday so it is time for the big bats to step out in this game. Perhaps Kikuchi's poor play is holding back this line.  Take the Jays to win. 10*

Baltimore was the most profitable team to bet on last season (+27.9 units) and they continue to produce for their backers (3rd most profitable in 2023). The Orioles have now won seven in a row following last night’s 5-4 triumph over the division rival Red Sox. On the season, the O’s are 15-7 overall. 

So why not ride the hot hand Tuesday? The Orioles will start Kyle Bradish, who has not allowed a run in two starts (though that’s a bit misleading as the one lasted just 1 ⅔ innings). Still though, his last start was quite encouraging as Bradish went six innings and gave up just five hits. (Granted, against Washington). 

But having won seven straight and 11 of 13 overall, Baltimore is too good to ignore right now. They rallied from a 4-0 deficit last night. Can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again tonight.

The Orioles’ hitters showed tremendous patience and discipline last night as they didn’t strike out a single time. I like their chances here against Corey Kluber, whose best days are behind him. Kluber has an 8.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after allowing seven runs in his last start.

Kluber has allowed at least one HR in each of his four starts and he gave up two when he faced Baltimore on Opening Day. That resulted in a 10-9 loss for the Red Sox as Kluber allowed five runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Red Sox are 0-4 with Kluber on the mound this season. 10* 

The Jays bats have yet to come alive, but they've faced the Rays, Astros and Yankees in succession, winning two of the three series.  The White Sox have some of the worst pitching in the league at the moment.  Even Lance Lynn is struggling.  He gets plenty of strikeouts, but a ton of HR and walks as well.  The Jays' starter Bassitt is still trying to work down his ERA after a disastrous first start.  His last three starts have all been good; the very last was a six inning shut out.  The Jays' bullpen ERA looks alarming, but a few very poor innings has skewed that number.  The Sox' relievers really are poor.  It doesn't help that they have 4 RPs on the injury list. Add to the pitching woes, The Sox have also been hitting very poorly of late.  The Jays have fared well agaisnt three top sides.  I expect some of those big bags to start to make a statement.  Ill take the Jays to win on Monday.

The  8-2 Mets, off a rare loss will start Megill against the Giants today.  Megill has been solid against tough competition, now 3-1 with an ERA of 3.00.  He will get good support from the NY bullpen, performing well in spite of missing Diaz.  The Mets are 10-6 on the road and scorching right-handers to the tune of .315 in recent games.  They will face another righty in Ross Stripling, who has not been the pitcher he was last year (7.30 ERA).  He has been used mainly in relief to date so don’t look for a long outing from him today.  The Giants’ relievers have been unable to get the job done so far this season.  SF is just 3-6 at home, 4-8 vs right-handers, and unable to string together multiple wins.  Take the Mets to bounce back and win on the road.

The Rodriguezs  face off on Sunday.  Eduardo, is the veteran left-hander for the Tigers, off to a fine start.  His last start: 8 innings pitched, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts, 0 walks.  Grayson is the Orioles' promising young right-hander, off to a bit of a rough start.  The Tigers have some upside to date; not much offense, but a solid bullpen at the moment.  They've kept themselves in a lot of ballgames.  The Orioles have won 4 straight in an easy part of their schedule.  They hit well, but are softer against left-handers.  I like the pitching match-up for Detroit on Sunday.  A win wouldn't surprise me, but they should be able to at least keep this one close.  Take the Tigers on the run line at +1 1/2.

Two potential Cy young winners face off when The Sox' Cease facing Rays' lefty McClanahan.  One caveat here. Cease has issued twelve walks in his last three starts, and that won't wash with the Rays' potent bats.  It likely won't be the starters that decide this game. Rays are 7-3 and have won McClanahan's last four starts with ease.  They are the league's tops in both runs-for and runs-against.  The 3-7 White Sox are only average in offense and very poor in runs-against.  That overworked bullpen has struggled all year.  The Sox are hitting just .115 against left-handers over the last ten games, while the Rays have a team average of over .300 against right-handers in the same time period.  Take the Rays on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Cubs, the best hitting team in the league over the last week, crushed the Dodgers (10-11), roughing up their ace on Friday.  The Ddogers will face the Cubs' Wesneski on Saturday.  Don't let his ERA scare you; he started poorly, but his last appearance was no fluke.  This guy has high upside.  May starts for the Dodgers.  He began the season well but was roughed up in his last appearance, giving up 5 runs in 5+ innings.  It is very rare to see a Dodgers' bullpen as poor as this one has been of late, approaching an ERA of 7.00.  The Cubs' relievers are standing proud at  2.38 over the last week.
The Dodgers bats have also cooled off, slipping to 14th in runs/9.  As noted, the Cubs' bats are supercharged lately. The Dodgers are an unexpected  favorite on Saturday.  While a Cubs outright win wouldn't surprise me, the run line is even more tempting.  Take the Cubs + 1 1/2.

The A's are as bad as everyone expected.  They've allowed double figures in  runs/against in four of ten games,  winning just one in ten.  Lefty Sears starts for the A's.  Most of Sears' runs have come as a result of HR, five of them in three games.  Otherwise he has given innings and consistency.  It is what happens after Sears leaves that is concerning.  Oakland's bullpen has an ERA of 8.49/L10 as opposed to the Rangers' 3.18.

The Rangers have scored 37 runs in their last four games.  They swept their last series and took two of three from the Astros.  They are now second in Runs/9 in the MLB to date.  John Gray starts for Texas on Friday.  He has had three solid starts, pitching into the sixth on two of them, and allowing just five runs in fourteen innings.

The A's haven't put up much in the way of offense, just eight runs in total in their last five games. This is a great situation for the Rangers to stretch it out again.  Take Texas to win on the run line at -1 1/2.

The  Pirates put up a mountain of runs in Colorado in their last series.  They came back to earth on Thursday, still winning, but scoring just four runs.  The Pirates have been a surprise team this season, hitting very well.  The Reds have struggled, but usually win when Ashcraft is pitching.  He is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.42.  Other than too many walks, he has been very strong to date.  Nothing wrong with Keller's season either.  While not as overpowering as his opponent, he has been steady, pitching for good length.  You can't blame the bullpen for all the runs the Reds have given up recently.  They've been very good, with a 2.70 ERA last five games. They have a step on the Pirates pen over the same period, who have been just average.

The Pirates are favored, but i am not convinced that their success will last.  It has been a few days since they faced a tough pitcher and the line for Friday is over-valued in their favor.  Take the Reds to bounce back; the dog winning on the road.

The Mets are 6-1, hitting better lately and getting solid pitching, both starting and relief.  The Giants are the reverse, losing 5 of 6.  They were swept by the Tigers, and lost the series to the Marlins.  Manaea, a left hander, starts for the Giants.  He has had one good start in three appearances; the other two were very short, allowing 5 runs in 6+ innings. Senga will start for the Mets.  He is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA over three starts.  He struggled in his last appearance but was tough in his first two.  Control is an issue; he has allowed 10 walks to date, but also has 21 strikeouts.  He is still very much a work in progress.  The Giants' bullpen has not been much of a safety net with a collective 5.57 ERA last 10 games.  By comparison, the Mets' relievers are sitting at 2.63 over the same period.

The Mets bats have been heating up just as the Giants' have cooled off.  NY is a better team than the last two teams the Giants have faced and with little success. SF is just 2-4 at home.  I smell a road win.  Take the Mets to win outright.

The Twins lost to the Red Sox in the 10th on Tuesday, but a win could be in the cards for Wednesday.  Minnesota's starting rotation has been terrific to date, and Wednesday's starter Joe Ryan has been a big part of their success.  He has given up just 9 hits over 19 innings with a very tiny .63 WHIP.  His mound opponent Kluber's starts have been on the short side, and he was hit hard by both the Rays and Orioles.  The Red Sox haven't been getting length or success from their starters. Both pens have been solid, but the Twins'  bullpen has the edge and has been much more lightly used.  The Sox have been getting solid offense, but struggle somewhat vs right handers.  They'll face a fine one in this game.  The Twins aren't exactly ripping the ball on offense, but they have the lowest runs-against in the league. I'll take pitching over hitting in this match up.  Twins to win.

The Rangers are 10-6 to date, winning three in a row.  The 2-8 Royals have struggled at home and vs lefties (.184 BA).  KC ranks worst in runs/9 and close to it in runs allowed.  Texas lefty Perez has three straight quality starts under his belt, limiting runs to just five in fifteen innings pitched.  The Royals' Singer started the season very well, but each successive start has been worse.  His last one was a debacle.  The Rangers are off to a great start offensively and defensively.  There is no comparison at the moment between their fine bullpen and KC's (6.45 ERA).

This line is based on Singer bouncing back, but after two very poor games, I am not sure that this is likely. There is still KC's offense and relief pitching to consider.  Take Texas today, a bit of a gift from the odds makers.

The Cubs took their last series from the Dodgers, which hasn't happened often.  They are hitting the ball well, especially vs lefties, and the bullpen has been better than average.  They are up early against the A's in game one, and will send out Stroman on Tuesday.  He has a pair of wins already and three very good starts.  He allowed 2 runs over six innings in his last start, but that is it for the season with 18 innings under his belt.
The A's pitching (starting and relief) is the worst in the league, and while they put up some runs in the Baltimore series, their offense is poor overall.  Lefty Waldichuk kept the ball in the park in his last start, a big improvement over his first two.  His ERA is still a monster 10.20, and he has been hit very hard to date, but appearance #3 was a huge improvement.  Don't look for help from the Pen. As noted, they are struggling.
This should be a relatively easy win for the Cubs. Take Chicago to win on the road.

The Giants aren't in a good place at the moment with just three wins in their last ten games.  Logan Webb starts today.  He was solid in his last appearance after two sub-par ones.  Plenty of Ks so far but a lot of Ws as well. He'll face Jesus Luzardo a fine lefty, who can also rack up the Ks, 20 so far, and has more control.  He allowed three runs in his last appearance after a pair of stellar outings.  The Giants have been struggling in the late innings and the bullpen has been the culprit, with an ERA of over 6.00 in the last week.  The Marlins, on the other hand, have been getting great relief pitching in the same time period.
The Giants' bats have cooled off just as the Marlins' light-hitting line up have warmed up, especially in average.  While the season is young, the Giants are the worst hitting team against left-handed pitchers, and they face a good one today.  I'll take the Marlins to win this one at home.

The White Sox won a game after three straight losses.  They'll have their ace on the mound on Sunday and he is 2-0, giving up just a run an outing and lasting at least 5 innings per appearance.  Grayson Rodriguez will start for the Orioles.  He has high upside, but struggled in his first start, and it may take a few games to settle in.  The Orioles have been hitting well, but that may "cease and desist" on Sunday.  Both these teams have had their problems in runs allowed, with some shockingly high totals.  I like the Sox' chances on Sunday.  Cease should at least allow them the opportunity of a lead, and Rodriguez has yet to prove himself.  Neither bullpen is especially strong, but so far the Sox relievers haven't let Cease down.

Chicago to win.

The Mariners rang up the visiting Rockies in their first two games.  I like their chances for a three game sweep. Their ace Castillo lost a step last time out, but still only allowed 2 runs over 6 innings after two near perfect earlier outings.  Castillo's WHIP is a paltry 0.74 to date.  The Rockies start rookie Davis today.  He pitched fairly well in the spring but didn't last more than 3 innings.  The last two Rockies starters managed just 3+ innings each, so Colorado will be looking for some innings from Davis today.  Either that, or tax an indifferent bullpen. The Mariners have a considerable step up on the Rockies in relief pitching.

The Mariners' offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but has started to perk up in the last week.  The Rockies are 26th in OPS on the road.  The M's are a large favorite, but won by 7 and 2 runs in the first games of the series.  Take the Mariners on the run line at -1 1/2 runs.

The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23.  Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date.  The A's sport the league's worst  also runs-allowed average to date.  Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help.

On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet.  They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning.  I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up .  Jump on the over, and quickly.  After Friday's score this total could rise.

The Padres are home to the Brew crew on Saturday, after losing the opener.  San Diego's vaunted offense has been surprisingly low key to date, now 24th in Runs scored and 27th in Average.  Saturday's starter Lugo has been a good news story so far.  He hasn't started in several years but has been very sharp, going at least 6 innings and allowing just 2 runs in 2 appearances.  After a lost season last year, Peralta has more than fulfilled his earlier promise for the Brewers to date allowing just 1 run over 12 innings in his first two appearances.  Milwaukee has one of the best pens in the business at the moment, and has been hitting surprisingly well; 11th in runs scored to date, as well as a very sharp 3rd in Runs allowed.

Take the Brewers, a slight underdog, to win outright on Saturday.

I like the Royals +1.5 tonight, hosting Atlanta. 

Now it’s hardly been an inspiring start to the season for Kansas City, who comes in at just 4-9. But they are coming off an impressive 10-1 victory at Texas on Wednesday, their largest margin of victory in any game this season. The 10 runs also marked a season high.

Atlanta came into 2023 earmarked as one of the favorites to win the World Series. They’ve gotten off to a 9-4 start and lead the NL East. But I see this as a bit of a tricky spot. You’d have to go all the way back to April 5th to find the last time the Braves won a game by more than one run. All three wins against Cincinnati were of the one-run variety and before that they lost three in a row to San Diego. 

Brady Singer will start today for KC. I’d say his 4.91 ERA is misleading. In his only home start, Singer allowed just one run and two hits against Toronto. The Braves have never faced him before, not all that surprising given these two teams rarely meet. Still, it’s an edge to the pitcher. 

April 5th also marks the last time any Braves’ starter earned a victory. Charlie Morton gets the baseball tonight. He has not pitched well with a 1.936 WHIP in two starts. Being a veteran, the Royals will know what to expect from him, even if this is just Morton’s fifth appearance against them. 10* 

the Blue Jays bats are due for some big innings and Thursday could be the day.  The Tigers blew a fine start by Rodriguez in the late innings on Wednesday.  The bullpen is an issue; the Tigers' pen has an ERA of nearly 9.00 in the last week.  Both of Thursday's  projected starters bombed in their first start and improved in their second. the Jays' Bassitt was much improved.  He has been Mr. Dependable in previous seasons, and is a good bet for another solid result.  Turnbull was somewhat better in his last appearance, but missed 1 1/2 years to Tommy John surgery, so is still a work in progress.

The Jays are pretty formidable when facing a right-hander, batting nearly .300, with equivalent runs-scored.  The Tigers' offense has been slim lately with a 2.48 runs/9 average, and very poor defensive stats.  Look for the Jays to put up some significant numbers on Thursday.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

The 5-1 Cubs have been playing well especially on offense, where they are 2nd in BA and 7th in OPS over the last week.  Wednesday's starter Stroman is 2-0 to start, with a pair of 6 inning starts, giving up 0 runs on just 5 hits.  He was also very good in the preseason. Seattle's starter Gilbert has also been steady.  He does give up more than his share of hits and lasted just 4 innings in his last appearance.  While they scored 9 runs in a losing cause, the M's offense has been  generally poor this season. The Cubs are looking for the Seattle sweep, out-hitting the Mariners in game two,  and out-pitching them is game one.  I like their chances for a win on Wednesday.  Take the Cubs to bring out the brooms.

I can't resist this one.  St Louis hasn't earned these odds.  Rockies starter Freeman has been as hot as anyone to start the season, with two six inning appearances and zero runs given up.  One of those games was at Coors Field.  Cards' starter Mikolas has not been good at all so far.  He has been hit very hard, giving up a run an inning to date.  This doesn't translate well to a start in Colorado.   The Rockies are hitting well for average and have won two straight games.  Bullpen? let's hope they don't need it too much.  The Cardinals are just 1-6 and lost to the Rockies on Monday.  They are projected to be a much better team than Colorado, but what you expect isn't always what you get.  Take the Rockies on the Run line, at +1 1/2.

The Mariners have some fine starters, but Castillo has to be the ace.  He's a tough left-hander off a great season with a pair of overpowering scoreless starts to date. The Ms have not shone to start the season but have been fine in Castillo's starts.  Cubs starter Smiyly struggled at the tail-end of preseason, and very much so in his first start.  He will bounce back at some point, but I don't think he'll compare well to Seattle's ace on Monday.

The Mariners' pen is expected to be one of the best this season.  They have been better than average so far, and shine in comparison to Cub's pen (5.02 to date).  The Cubs have the edge on offense at the moment, but it will be tough to generate runs against the Seattle pitching staff.  I have faith in the M's bats this season.  Take the Mariners to win on Monday.

The Rays look pretty invincible, especially with Springs going a full seven innings yesterday, giving most of the pen the day off.  While they have yet to face tough competition, they are still 7-0  with starters and relievers under 2.50 ERA (first in the league) and tops also in runs/9, OPS, and HRs.  It's Rasmussen on Sunday.  He allowed 0 runs on 2 hits in his first start, and was very good in the preseason.  He'll be up against Kaprielian, who bombed in his first start, allowing a run an inning.  He is a better pitcher than he showed in game one, but won't get much support from a struggling A's offense, ranked in the high twenties in most of the league's offense categories.

It'll be closer than yesterday, but the Rays will still come out on top.  Take Tampa Bay on the run line at - 1 1/2.

The Yankees lost to the Orioles in a close game on Friday.  The tables may be turned if Yankees starter Brito continues as he did in spring training and in his first start.  The kid has shown excellent control, walking no one in the preseason and just 1 batter in his first start.  He gave up 0 runs on just 2 hits over 5 innings.  He'll face Irwin who who had a rocky first start and gave up more than his share of hits in his last 2 preseason starts.  The Yankees have put up some big numbers against Irwin in the past.  New York is getting much better results from their bullpen than the Orioles.  They Yankees are hitting  well for average but not yet for power.  The O's are scoring runs at a good clip but have been allowing almost as many.

Look for Brito to continue his fine pitching and the Yankees to take it to Irwin and the Orioles pen.  Yankees to win.

The Rockies have started better than the Nationals, and they beat them in the first game of the series in a tight 1-0 match-up.  Neither offense is up to much so far; it is rare to have a single run at anytime in a Coors Field game.  Rockies' pitcher Urena didn't pitch well in Spring Training, giving up a run an inning in his last three preseason starts.  He was even worse against the Padres, allowing 4 runs in 2+ innings.  Nats' starter , promising young left-hander MacKenzie Gore finished spring on a tear, and started the new season in the same way, pitching into the 6th, striking out 6, and allowing just a single run.  Against the Braves' bats, so no mean feat.  The Nationals have some decent arms in the pen who are pitching well in the early season.

Wins are going to be few and far between, so Washington better take advantage of Gore's starts when they come.  I like the underdog's chances on Friday, but they don't hit very well.  I expect Washington will at least keep this one close.  Take the Nationals on the run line at +1 1/2.