The set-up: After Joc Pederson’s walk-off two-run home run in the ninth inning gave the Dodgers’ a 4-3 victory last night, I believe that the home side will carr that momentum over here. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with Kenta Maeda (2-1, 4.76 ERA), who has looked decent overall, but who comes in off a “dud” vs. the Cards on Wednesday, allowing five runs over six innings. 

The visitors turn to Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.82) who has given up just one run over his first 11 innings of work this season. Mahle had success vs. the Dodgers last year, but overall he was 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year.

The pick: Note that the Reds are still 0-5 on the road this year and just 5-9 vs. right-handed starters. Note as well that the Dodgers are 7-2 vs. teams with losing records this season. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Reds come to town off a 9-5 loss to the Cardinals in Mexico and I think they’ll have a difficult time in Chavez Ravine tonight as well. LA won’t be taking anything for branded here as its 7-1 win over the Brewers yesterday snapped a six-game slide. 

The pitchers: The Reds go with Luis Castillo (1-1, 0.92 ERA) who hasn’t given up a run in 12 innings, but who clearly faces a stiff task tonight.

The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 0.00), who makes his first start of the year.

The pick: Note that LA has hit at least one home run in 29 consecutive home games. I like the Dodgers to build off yesterday’s win and for Kershaw to at the very least, match Castillo inning for inning tonight. I have no problem laying this price. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Astros come in off a 3-1 win over Seattle, as the Mariners hot start has start to quickly fade. Houston on the other hand has won eight straight and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done in the series finale as well. 

The pitchers: Houston sends Gerrit Cole (0-2, 3.32 ERA) to the hill and he most recently allowed three runs off four hits with three walks while striking out six over seven innings vs. New York on Tuesday. Over 19 innings of work Cole now has 25 K’s.

The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (4-0, 3.16) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the toothless Royals on Tuesday. Gonzalez has been sharp so far, but all good things must come to an end. Difficult match-up here and I look for Gonzalez to take a step back.

The pick: Houston slugger Jose Altuve has homered in five straight games. Look for the hot-hitting Astros to continue to build momentum with another solid victory today.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: Arizona enters having lost three straight after last night’s 2-1 loss to the Friars, but I think this line could easily be a lot larger because of what I feel to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this price is trying to lead us to believe.

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Strahm (0-2, 7.04 ERA), who gave up five runs off eight hits over 2 2/3-s innings in a loss to Arizona on April 1st. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Diamondbacks. 

The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.57) who gave up five hits and three runs over six innings in a win over the Padres on April 1st. Kelly comes in off a hard-luck 1-0 loss to Boston, going eight innings and allowing four hits and one run while striking out nine and walking none. 

The pick: All things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Play on the desperate home side. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: After yesterday’s upset loss (called because of rain after seven innings), I look for the injured but still dangerous home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Chicago broke a five-game slide with yesterday’s win, but the Yankees are now out to snap a four-game losing streak of their own. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with veteran CC Sabathia (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who went 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA in 29 starts las year. Sabathia enters with a 19-7, 3.75 ERA lifetime record vs. Chicago.

The visitors counter with Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71) who was rocked for seven runs off seven hits over 2 1/3’s innings in a 12-5 loss to the Mariners on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Sabathia to get the job done in his season debut vs. the volatile Nova. Lay the price.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: Both teams have struggled of late. I think that home field will play a significant role in this one. This is the first time these teams have met since their seven-game NLCS last fall, a series which the Dodgers also won. 

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Corbin Burnes (0-1, 9.90 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off six hits, including three home runs and three walks over five innings while striking out six in a 14-8 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Julio Urias (0-0, 3.12) gave up three runs off four hits over 3.2 innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday, receiving a no-decision for his effort. 

The pick: I think Urias out duels his volatile counterpart and I like the Dodgers to get back on track in this favorable situation. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Angels have won six straight, but I think they’ll stumble in the opener of this difficult road trip and in the National League setting. LA also leaves the coast without slugger Mike Trout in the line-up, who was recently injured. The under-achieving and hungry Cubs will look to take advantage. Also note that it’s unseasonably cold in Chicago right now, which will clearly effect the team from California.

The pitchers: The Angels hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 2.45 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over 6.1 innings in a win over the Rangers on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Cole Hamels (1-0, 5.73) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a 14-8 win over the Brewers on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-5 (-4.2 units) on the road this year, while Chicago is 26-17 the L2 years in all interleague contests. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs have lost eight of 11 to open the year, but they have a chance to win their first series of the season with a victory today. Chicago won the series opener 10-0, before falling 5-2 on Wednesday. While he struggled in his first start, I think that Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana will settle down here and deliver the goods.

The pitchers: The Pirates hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who struck out eight over seven scoreless vs. the light-hitting Reds earlier.

Quintana (0-1, 10.29) comes off an outing to forget in which he allowed eight runs over three innings to the Brewers. Quintana has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Bucs though, having gone 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts vs. them.

The pick: Keep your eyes on Cubs’ slugger Jason Heyward, who has a .371 average after three hits yesterday, including a solo home run. Good price on the hungry home side here. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Despite Mike Trout leaving with a groin injury in last night’s win, I think this one sets up nicely for the home side and I look for it to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday as well.

The pitchers: The Brewers turn to Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 6.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over four innings while striking out eight. 

The home side counters with Felix Pena (0-1, 5.40) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Friday. 

The pick: For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Take it for what you will though, but Milwaukee is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague road games following a loss, while LA is already 4-1 at home this season. I’m banking on the good times continuing to roll for the surging Angels.

LA Angels

10* play

The set-up: The Indians’ Corey Kluber has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season, but I think he’ll bounce back here in this favorable situation. Tigers’ veteran Jordan Zimmermann has looked sharp early, but I think he’ll have difficulty with this surging Indians side.

The pitchers: Kluber (0-2, 5.23 ERA) will be trying to slow down a Tigers team which has won fig straight. Kluber has to be feeling confident here as he’s 11-7 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 career appearances vs. Detroit. Last year he won all three starts, allowing only three runs over 23 1/3’s innings to go along with 26 K’s. 

Zimmermann (0-0, 0.66) has allowed only one run over 13 2/3’s innings of work, but the Tigers have given him no support thus far. 

The pick: Note though that Zimmermann has been destroyed by the Tribe throughout his career, going 0-5 with a ballooned 11.08 ERA. I think Kluber settles down and I look for Zimmermann to come back down to Earth. Lay the price.

Clveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-1 home win over the Padres, while the Dodgers rolled to an impressive 12-6 win at Colorado. While Hyun-Jin Ryu has been excellent to start the year, his counterpart Miles Mikolas has been a train wreck. 

The pitchers: The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. Over his first two starts he has 13 punch outs. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20) who has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season. Over two starts he’s given up eight runs off 12 hits. Last year Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, so clearly he’s struggling with command issues or something else right now.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in three of four vs. right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low.

Dodgers/Cards OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Astros look for the sweep of the visiting A’s here. I believe that Brad Peacock has the advantage over his counterpart Mike Fiers on the hill this afternoon.

The pitchers: Peacock (1-0, 1.35 ERA) gave up one run with five K’s over seven innings in a 2-1 win over the Rangers in his first start. 

Fiers (2-1, 3.00 ERA), who has not given up a run over his last two starts, but who is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. 

The pick: Oakland’s bats have gone cold, which doesn’t bode well in this difficult road venue vs. the red hot Peacock. I look for Fiers to take a step back here finally. Lay the price with confidence. 

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The White Sox as a slight dog at home vs. the overachieving Mariners? I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under-rated underdog. Chicago is getting big time production from slugger Yoan Moncada, who is hitting .458 with two home runs and then RBIs. Chicago won 10-8 in yesterday’s series opener and Moncada was 2 for 4 with four RBI’s. While the Mariners have 21 home runs through nine games, they also have 16 errors. 

The pitchers: Seattle turns to Mike Leake (1-0, 3.00 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Red Sox on Saturday. Last year he was 10-10 with a 4.36 ERA. 

Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.70) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Giolito to carry over his momentum and I like the White Sox to do the same after last night’s win. 

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Astros return to Houston for their first home series of the season. So far they’ve dropped five of six games. Oakland has been playing great, but I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this hungry and determined home side.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Collin McHugh (0-1, 3.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with nine K’s over five frames in an unfortunate setback to the Rays. Overall he’s 8-1 with a 2.84 ERA over 17 appearances vs. the A’s. 

The visitors counter with Frankie Montas (1-0, 1.50) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the Angels in his season debut. Note though that over four career starts Montas is 1-1 with a ballooned 7.74 ERA vs. the Astros. 

The pick: I like McHugh at home and all things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: Two teams not known for their offensive fire-power go head to head on Thursday afternoon. A couple of confirmed “gas cans” also square off on the mound though. I believe that Jake Junis and Spencer Turnbull get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: The Royals’ Junis (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win despite not being at his best vs. the White Sox on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits over five innings of work. Junis is in his third year and he finished 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA last season.

The Tigers’ Turnbull (0-1, 5.40) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Saturday. Last year he was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA for the Tigers, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in four of five vs. the division already this season, while Detroit has seen the total fly over in 16 of its last 25 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Royals/Tigers OVER

10* play

The set-up: Baltimore won two of three in New York to open the season and it’s so far taken the first two games of this series. The Jays play with desperation here and I also think they have the advantage on the mound. When you add it all up, it makes this a price which I have no issues at all in laying. 

The pitchers: Baltimore turns to Nate Karns (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has worked as a starter for most of his five years in the big leagues, but who was originally slated to start out of the bullpen this season. Karns is in the rotation out of necessity. He looked decent vs. the Yanks on opening day, allowing one hit and no run on 33 pitches. 

The Jays counter with Matt Shoemaker (1-0, 0.00) who was impressive in his first start, going seven scoreless for a win over the Tigers. In four career starts vs. the Orioles he’s 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA. 

The pick: While the Jays have yet to impress at the plate in this series, I think Shoemaker will easily out duel his still untested counterpart. Lay the price.

Toronto Blue Jays

10* play

The set-up: Two competent starters square off here, but I’m expecting a much more competitive game today after the Rays’ 7-1 victory on Monday. That was Tampa’s fourth straight win. 

The pitchers: The home side turns to Blake Snell (0-1, 7.50 ERA), who was rocked for six hits, including three homers over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Astros in his 2019 opener. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (1-0, 1.29), who looked good in his first start after putting together a very solid 2018 as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five on the road, while Tampa’s seen the total go over in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low, play the “over.”

Rockies/Rays OVER

10* play

The set-up: Boston has struggled with consistency to open the year, but with what I feel to be the superior starter on the mound tonight, I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to get the job done in this favorable matchup (Boston won’t be lacking for motivation after losing three of four in Seattle, despite scoring 24 runs.) 

The pitchers: The Red Sox go with David Price, who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA in the regular season in 2018. Note that he’s 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in ten career starts vs. Oakland.

The home side counters with Aaron Brooks, who made the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mainly because of an injury to starter Sean Manaea to open the year. Note that Brooks threw just three times in the big leagues last year and he hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitching since 2015. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is still 104-71 (+26.9 units) the last two years on the road, while Oakland is just 15-25 (-9.9 units) in its last 40 when playing with a day off. I’m banking on Price getting the better of his counterpart and for the Red Sox’ offense to continue to shine. Great price on Price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

I'm playing on SD. Analysis to follow

The set-up: Cole Hamels returns to Texas to take on his former club and he faces a volatile counterpart in Lance Lynn. After the first two games of this interleague series it’s tied at 1-1, but I think that Hamels and the visiting side has the clear advantage tonight.

The pitchers: Hamels went 4-3 with a 2.36 ERA for Chicago after getting acquired at the trade deadline. 

Lynn has been bouncing from one team to the next over the last two years, including in St. Louis, Minnesota, New York and now to Texas. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is still 42-20 (+13 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 12-33 (-16 units) in its last 35 as a home underdog of +125 or more. I’m banking Hamels getting the better of his counterpart today.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The prodigal son returns to Texas! Well, maybe that’s a little far fetched. But Cubs’ starter Yu Darvish does return to Texas where he spent his first five years of his career and he comes in with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after an injury plagued 2018. Darvish’s counterpart today though has more questions than answers at the moment.

The pick: Darvish was just 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA last year. Darvish put together a decent spring and to say he’ll be leaned upon by the Cubbies this year would be a big understatement. 

The home side turns to Edinson Volquez, who was 4-8 with a 4.19 ERA for the Marlins in 2017. The 35 year old had Tommy John surgery last year and he made five spring starts this season, totalling 13.1 innings of work.

The pick: Darvish’s issues aren’t nearly as great as Volquez’s and I believe the Japanese hurler returns to form this season. Or at least for one game vs. his former team. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

Selction: Mets/Nationals UNDER

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: The Astros took the opener 5-1 on Thursday afternoon and I believe an even bigger blowout is in the cards in the second game Friday night.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Gerrit Cole, who was 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 2018. Over five spring starts Cole posted a 2.81 ERA and .179 batting average. 

The Rays counter with Charlie Morton, who threw for the Astros for the last few years and who was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA last season. 

The pick: Morton has been fantastic over the last three years, but a new venue and team brings familiarity issues. I like Cole to continue his dominant form and for the hard-hitting visiting side to beat up on its former team mate. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which hope to be in the postseason collide in this National League contest on Thursday afternoon and with their respective “aces” getting the call, everything points to a low-scoring pitchers duel in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and last year he finished 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom just signed a five-year 137.5 million dollar contract on Tuesday.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the home side. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 2017 and 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 2018. Scherzer struck out 12 in his final spring tune-up on Friday.

The pick: Throw the stats out the window on Opening Day. I expect these two hungry Cy Young winners to “steal the show” and to battle deep into the latter frames.

Nationals/Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Seattle won 9-7 in the 2019 season opener in Japan early yesterday morning. Domingo Santa delivered a grand slam in the victory. Both teams bats looked great, including the A’s Khris Davis, who led MLB with 48 home runs last year, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty who all went yard, and the Mariners got balanced hitting from Tim Beckham and newcomer Edwin Encarnacion, who scored twice.

The pitchers: Mariners go with LHP Yusei Kikuchi, as the 27 year old makes his MLB debut in his home country. 

The A’s hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who steadily declined with the Blue Jays over the last three years before posting a career worst 7-14, 5.64 ERA record. The 35 year old isn’t getting any younger, as he had difficulties with his hip and back all year in 2018.

The pick: I think these starters get chased early and I look for these hard-hitting offense to put a plethora of points on the board once it’s all said and done. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Down 0-2 and with their backs against the proverbial wall, I look for the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done in Game 3 and with the shift in venue to friendly confines. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler.

The pitchers: Porcello makes his third start of the playoffs, last pitching in Game 4 against the Astros, given yup four runs over four innings.

Buehler has allowed ten runs over 16 innings in three playoff appearances this year. Buehler though was 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 137.1 frames of work this season and I think he’ll settle down at Chavez Ravine.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine night home games in which they’ve lost two or more games in a row previous. It’s do or die, now or never. Lay the price.

The set-up: After falling 8-4 in Game 1, I believe the Dodgers will respond in Game 2 with a victory behind what I believe to be the superior pitcher on the mound for them. The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, while the home side goes with David Price.

The teams: Ryu finished the regular season 7-3 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.008 WHIP with 15 walks and 89 strikeouts over 76.1 frames of action. He’s so far 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in the playoffs.

Price went 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA in the regular season and he’s 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 12.1 post-season innings thus far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is interestingly just 1-4 in its last five Game 2 of a series, while LA is 4-0 in its last four interleague road games vs. southpaws. Looks like we’re headed to West Coast all knotted up at one game apiece.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with Chris Sale.

The teams: Kershaw has been good in two of three playoff starts so far, posting a 2.37 ERA and 2-1 record. He’s struggled throughout his postseason career though, posting a 4.09 ERA and 9-8 record spanning 141 career playoff frames of work.

Sale gave up two runs off four walks four four innings in a no-decision to the Astros in the ALCS. In one start in the ALDS he held the Yanks to two runs over six frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 11-2 in its last 13 Sale starts, while the Dodgers are just 1-4 in their last five following a victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on Boston.

The set-up: With a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series, I look for the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done here. LA sends Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade Miley.

The teams: Ryu gave up two runs over 4.1 innings in Game 2 of this series. Ryu posted his career best numbers this year though, with a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts. There’s no reason not to think that Ryu won’t be able to come out here and have another productive outing as well.

Wade Miley went 5.2 scoreless in his Game 2 victory over LA. Over 13 innings faced against LA he’s allowed just one run. For his career though he’s just 4-5 with a 3.55 ERA against the Dodgers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine National League night road games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. I think Ryu continues his steady season here and helps lift his team to a well earned World Series berth.

The set-up: This series is all tied up and I expect another hard-fought and spirited affair on Tuesday night. The visitors on the “run line” is the correct call in my opinion though. The Red Sox go with Nate Eovaldi on the mound, while the home side counters with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Eovaldio has a lifetime 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against the Astros to go along with a 1-1 record over five starts.

Keuchel has struggled against Boston whenever he’s faced them, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over 19.2 innings to go along with an 0-1 record.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Keuchel’s struggles in this particular match-up continue.

The set-up: This series is all tied up at 1-1. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. After rallying for the 4-3 win in Game 2, I think the Dodgers carry that momentum over here.

The pitchers: Chacin fired five shutout innings against Colorado in Game 3 of the LDS, but in his lone meeting against the Dodgers this year he was shelled for nine runs. Overall Chacin has struggled against the Dodgers, posting a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 145 career innings.

Buehler gave up five runs over five innings in Game 3 of the LDS against the Braves. In his lone start against Milwaukee this year though he gave up one run over seven innings.

The pick: If we look a little closer at Chacin’s numbers we see that he in fact has a very poor 6.13 ERA over his last eight starts against LA. Furthermore, Buehler was downright awesome at home this season, posting a tiny 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 74.2 frames of work. Lay the price.

The set-up: Houston sends 35 year old Justin Verlander to the hill in Game of the ALCS, while Boston turns to 29-year old Chris Sale. It’s “revenge time” for Boston, which was knocked out of last year’s ALDS by the eventual champion Astros.

The pitchers: Verlander gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall he posted a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 214 innings this season. He’s 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP lifetime against Boston.

Sale gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 5-4 win over the Yanks in the ALDS. He’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lifetime against the Astros and he was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the regular season.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is a sub-par 9-12 (-4.2 units) this year already on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Boston is 88-39 (+32.2 units) against right-handed starters this season. Look for Sale to defend his home field and lay this reasonable price.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups all over the field, but especially on the mound. There’s no doubt that this is one of them, as the visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with the veteran Gio Gonzalez. I think Gonzaelz can match Kershaw’s effort today, which I in turn ultimately believe swings the value to the home side on the “run line” at this reasonable price.

The pitchers: Kershaw finished 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about the veteran southpaw, so I won’t even bother.

Gonzalez finished 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA. He struggled down the stretch with the Nationals, but he excelled in his fives starts for the Brewers. Note that Gonzalez is 7-4 with a 3.26 ERA in all “home” situations this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Brewers 7-2 in their last nine National League night home games in which they are an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the reasonable price and grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: It’s do or die for the underachieving Indians. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done in the elimination situation. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger.

The pitchers: Keuchel finished 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA. After a shaky first half, Keuchel settled down in the second. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about the crafty southpaw, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Clevinger is so far 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA. In 2017 Clevinger was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA. His peripherals clearly suggest that he’s for real. Clevinger has been “lights out” at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA.

The pick: Note as well that Clevinger has been even better in all “day” games by going 7-2 with a 2.04 ERA. And take it for what you will, but note that the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine National League day home games in which they’re a favorite in the -105 to -145 range. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin.

The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year.

Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Each club sends its ace to the mound. The Tribe hand the ball to Corey Kluber, well the defending champs go with Justin Verlander. I think Verlander and the Astros will find a way to get the job done here.

The teams: Kluber went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He’s had plenty of success on the road (9-4) this season and against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 6-3 record.

Verlander hasn’t fared as well against the Tribe though, holding a 20-24, 4.71 ERA over 52 career starts. This season though he’d finish with a 16-9 record to go along with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

The pick: Also note that over 22 career postseason appearances, Verlander owns a sharp 3.07 ERA. His counterpart though can’t say the same thing, as last year in the playoffs Kluber was rocked for nine runs off ten hits over two starts vs. the Bronx Bombers. Verlander was 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 36.2 innings in the 2017 playoffs. Also note that the Astros bullpen led the entire league this year with a 3.03 ERA, while the Indians were ranked 25th with a poor 4.60 ERA. Lay the price.

The set-up: It’s Game 1 of the NLDS on Thursday from Chavez Ravine. Atlanta goes with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu. I’m predicting no upsets here on Thursday night.

The teams: Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 183 innings. In his only start against the Dodgers this year though he looked bad, giving up four runs (including two dingers), over five innings in a 4-1 loss. In fact, over 11.1 career innings Foltynewicz has given up seven runs against LA.

Over 15 starts Ryu posted a 7-3 records along with a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Ryu has dominated the Braves throughout his career, holding them to six runs over 18.1 innings (2.95 ERA.)

The pick: Ryu has done well in three playoff starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1-0 record over 16 innings. In contrast, this will be Foltynewic’s first playoff start ever. Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 4-1 in its last five home starts by Ryu, while the Braves are just 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last five starts against teams with winning records. Lay the price, expect a rout.

The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: I think Zack Godley and the hard-hitting visiting side offer great value in this matchup. The home side sends Jacob Nix to the hill.

The pitchers: Godley is so far 14-11 with a 4.75 ERA. He’s had an up and down season, but after a shaky first half, he’s looked a lot better in the second. Note that he’s 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA in all night games.

Nix is so far 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers on Sunday, but overall he’s been a disaster (especially in all “night” games with a 2-3, 6.04 ERA)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 2-7 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the -150 to -225 range. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think the talent gap on the hill tonight makes Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side well worth the price of admission. The home side goes with rookie Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Corbin is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He comes in on top form, despite taking a loss against the Cubs in his last start, giving up three runs over six innings while striking out seven. The crafty southpaw hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since late July and to go along with his very respectable ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHiP to go along with a whopping 237 K’s.

Lauer is so far 6-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Lauer has struggled to pitch deep into games and note that he’s just 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 13-8 in its last 23 National League night road games as a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. I expect Corbin to come in razor focused. Lay the price.

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. the visitors go with Ross Stripling on the hill, while the home side goes with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Cards on Sunday, but overall the right-hander has been great this year. Note that he has a sharp 1.14 WHIP over 117 innings and he’s been great in all “night” games with a 2.44 ERA.

Greinke is so far 14-11 with a 3.21 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been fantastic at home, coming in with a sharp 6-4, 2.42 ERA in friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night road games when the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Neither of these starters has looked great this season. Each came in with a ton of promise, but each has struggled with consistency. That said, I absolutely feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 9-12 with a 4.16 ERA. Boyd has admittedly been decent of late, but overall the southpaw has been consistently inconsistent (especially on the road where he’s just 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA).

Odorizzi is so far 7-10 with a 4.35 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday and he has to be feeling confident here, sporting a respectable 1.33 WHP and 154:63 K/BB over 153.2 innings of work.

The pick: Odorizzi is 5-4 with a 4.10 ERA at home and take it for what you will as well, but the Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 American League night home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

The set-up: Wei-Yin Chen has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s been terrible on the road. The Nationals made an over night pitching change, shelving Roark and going with Kyle McGowin. I think runs will be plentiful here.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-11 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 1.62 ERA at home and 1-8 with a 9.29 ERA on the road.

McGowin is so far 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA. He was amazing at the Triple-A level, but he was blown up in his first appearance in the big leagues. He draws a more favorable opponent tonight, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who are likely happy to see the season coming to an end collide in this one. I think runs are going to be plentiful, as the visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell, while the home side goes with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA. He fell to the Giants at home on Tuesday and he can’t be feeling too confident here either, as note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.57 ERA. The ten year veteran has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Two suspect starters here. I think these normally lighter-hitting line-ups take advantage. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta, while the home side hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA. He has been far from perfect this year, but I think the veteran has likely been just as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for to this point. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.70 ERA on the road.

Foltynewicz is so far 11-10 with a 2.90 ERA. After giving up one run over a complete game victory over the Giants, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his latest outing against the Cards. Regardless the southpaw has also exceeded expectations to this point (note that Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole.

The pitchers: Heaney is so far 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Saturday. Over his last 12 innings of work he’s allowed just two earned runs.

Cole is so far 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’ll now be looking to close the regular season strong and improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.72 ERA record in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of their last 14 night American League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Clearly these are two very capable starters. This total is set low for a reason, but in my estimation, it’s a little too low. Admittedly these are two of the very best pitchers going head-to-head in this one, but this is also a couple of the hardest-hitting line-ups in the World as well. I look for this one to sneak “over” once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA. He went three shutout innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Sale has looked good early in his limited time and he’ll be worked back into his full load slowly. However, the fact that he could be on a short leash again here definitely is a major factor working in our favor on this play.

Bauer is so far 12-6 with a 2.22 ERA. Bauer’s been out since mid-August with a lower-leg fracture. The Indians have already clinched a playoff spot, so the team has little to play for over the final two weeks. Bauer will have a couple of “tune-ups” to get back into form before the post-season.

The pick: Neither of these work horse starters is expected to see much time tonight and because of that, I’m going to recommend a play on the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound, but this isn’t one of those. I think the Cards have the distinct advantage on the hill tonight. The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side sends Touki Toussaint to the bump.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 8-7 with a 2.86 ERA. He comes in off a hard-luck loss against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up one earned run off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. Flaherty has not given up more than three earned runs in an outing since late July. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Toussaint is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA. He was moved to the bullpen last week after three straight lacklustre starts to open his career, but he’s back in the rotation out of necessity. Note that Toussaint has as many walks as he does K’s so far this season.

The pick: I love Flaherty in this spot. He was the victim of poor run support in his last outing, but that’s not going to be a problem here in my estimation facing the shaky Toussaint. Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well.

Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point.

The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Eric Skoglund, while the home side sends Jameson Taillon to the hill. I think Taillon is well worth the price in this spot.

The pitchers: Skoglund is so far 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA. He’s been more effective of late, but he’s been terrible on the road all year, coming in with an 0-2, 7.15 ERA to this point.

Taillon is so far 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over St. louis on Wednesday. It was his fourth straight victory.

The pick: Note that over his last four trips to the hill Taillon has posted a tiny 2.16 ERA and elite 25:3 K/BB in that span. The massive talent-gap on the mound today makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA.

Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. However, I absolutely feel that Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks are worth the price in this one at home. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks.

The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA. After a shaky first half, Hendricks has looked a lot better in the second. That said, note that he still owns a very pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Corbin is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off ten hits while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Wednesday.

The pick: Corbin has now struck out at least seven batters in ten straight outings while posting an elite 81/9 K:BB in that span. The southpaw has been at his best at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA. I’m banking on Corbin continuing his strong play at home, while I expect Hendricks’ road mediocrity to not be enough to get the job done this time. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings.

Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: I think the home side on the “run line” is the correct call in this Sunday night match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling, while the Cards go with Adam Wainwright.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Stripling’s back in the rotation out of necessity and he’s done exceptionally well whenever he’s been given the chance this season. Stripling’s been great, I simply feel that he and his team are over-priced in this spot against the hungry home side.

Wainwright is so far 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He returned from the DL on Monday and gave up four runs while striking out three in a fortunate win over the Pirates. Clearly Wainwright has seen better days, but the veteran will be given every opportunity by the club during its playoff push.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Grab the Cards on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA.

Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start.

The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I do think that Max Scherzer and the opportunistic Nationals are worth the price of admission in this one. The home side sends Kevin Gausman to the hill.

The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 17-6 with a 2.31 ERA. The veteran is in line for a Cy Young award and he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 8-3, 2.04 ERA record on the road.

Gausman is so far 9-10 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently got shelled for four runs off seven hits with four walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Overall Gausman has been solid for his new club, but I still think he’s in well over his head in this match-up.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 in its last nine night National League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Bank on Scherzer coming in focused in this important matchup and lay the price.

The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night.

The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well.

Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: I think Mike Montgomery and the visiting side have the advantage on the road in this one. The home side sends Joe Ross to the hill to counter.

The teams: Montgomery is so far 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a rain-out, so he comes in extra rested. Montgomery hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he’s posted a very respectable 3.13 ERA on the road to this point.

Ross is so far 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He re-joined the rotation after being out since July 2017 with Tommy John surgery, but his debut was cut short after just 1.2 innings because of rain.

The pick: Ross looked decent in his re-hab, but clearly he draws a tough opponent here. Montgomery can take advantage and I think the southpaw will do just that. Great spot to pull the trigger on the visitors. Play on the Cubs.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think the Yanks’ Luis Severino and the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi will fight deep into the latter frames, which will in turn result in pushing this total “under” the number at the end of the night.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-7 with a 3.52 ERA. After a disastrous August, Severino has looked more steady of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA in all “night” games.

Odorizzi is so far 5-10 with a 4.57 ERA. Last year he was 10-8 with a 4.14 ERA, so 2018 has clearly been a step back for the hard-throwing right-hander. He’s coming off a loss against the Astros last week and while his ERA is nothing to write home about, I’ll point out that he does own the respectable 1.26 WHIP and 148:61 K/BB over 147.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 24 American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Wade LeBlanc is worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi.

The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 7-8 with a 3.59 ERA. The rookie has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll stumble here against LeBlanc in this difficult road venue.

LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings, continuing a trend of consistent form. Note that LeBlanc is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA at home and an elite 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 night inter-league home games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. Look for Lucchesi to take a step back and for LeBlanc to confidently take advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the mound this afternoon, that I have no issues at all in laying the the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors go with Gerritt Cole, while the home side goes with Daniel Norris.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with three walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a win over the Angels in his last start. Cole has been sharp on the road as well, going 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA.

Norris is so far 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. He has struggled in his limited time so far this season and there’s no reason not to think that that pattern of futility won’t get carried over here as well. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine American League road games in which they’re a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Look for Cole to dominate from the start and for Norris to get the hook early and lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros.

The set-up: Neither of these staters instills much confidence and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Covey is so far 5-12 with a 5.44 ERA. He’s made strides over the last month, but note that he’s still just 2-6 with an atrocious 6.39 ERA on the road.

Keller is so far 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Orioles on Friday. After a great run, Keller comes in off a loss against the Indians though and I think he’ll continue to regress here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 17 American League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-up on the mound, and this is one of those. The visitors go with Jose Urena, while the home side hands the ball to Jacob deGrom.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 5-12 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Monday.

deGrom is so far 8-8 with a 1.68 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. deGrom’s scheduled start was postponed on Monday due to rain, so he comes into this one with extra rest.

The pick: deGrom has been even tougher at home on opponents than on the road, as evidenced by his tiny 1.59 ERA in such instances. Note as well that New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 20 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. That said, for a number of different reasons I think that Hyun-Jin Ryu and the opportunistic Dodgers’ line-up have the advantage in this match-up. The home side goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Ryu is so far 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while striking out five and walking none in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 frames of work he’s posted the 2.24 ERA and a tiny 0.96 WHIP, while also holding the opposition to a .198 batting average.

Castillo is so far 8-12 with a 4.79 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Thursday.

The pick: Castillo has been better at home than on the road this year, but he still owns a poor 4.51 ERA in all “night” games. Take it for what you will as well but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Castillo’s slide into mediocrity continues and I expect Ryu to continue his solid end-of-season form. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. However, the Braves Sean Newcomb has been scuffling of late and I expect that end of season decline to continue here in this difficult National League road venue. The home side goes with Derek Rodriguez, who appears to be getting better and more confident as the season has worn on.

The pitchers: Newcomb is so far 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He comes in off five straight poor outings, a stretch of futility in which he’s posted a disastrous 8.58 ERA.

Rodriguez is so far 6-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out six and walking one over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Tuesday. Of his 15 games he’s gone to the hill this year, the rookie has thrown 12 quality efforts. To go along with his elite ERA, Rodriguez also owns a shiny 1.05 WHIP.

The pick: Additionally note that Rodriguez is holding his opponents to a tiny .211 hitting average. And finally it’s worth noting that he’s 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA at home. I think Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission vs. the struggling Newcomb. Play on San Francisco.

The set-up: “The Prodigal Son” returns to his former stomping grounds, looking to dominate on the road. For a number of different reasons, I absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the defending champs on the run-line (-1.5) is the correct move. The Tigers send Francisco Liriano to the hill.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad ones of late (for his incredibly high standards anyways), but he has to be feeling confident here, coming in sporting the still elite 11-2, 2.26 ERA on the road this season.

Liriano is so far 4-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He has been a disappointment for a second straight year and he can’t be feeling too confident at all here, as note that he’s a terrible 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine night American League road games in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs on Houston in this one.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is no doubt one of them. I think that the Jack Flaherty and the hard-hitting Cards are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The home side sends Matt Boyd to the hill to counter.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits while striking out five in a no-decision to Washington on Monday. Overall Flaherty has been solid this year, in fact he appears to be getting stronger as the season comes to a close. Note that he’s a very respectable 4-3 with a 2.79 ERA on the road.

Boyd is so far 9-12 with a 4.24 ERA. After a great start against the White Sox, Boyd took a step back in his last outing against the Royals. Boyd’s been better at home than on the road this season, but note that he still comes in sporting a poor 4-9, 5.07 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine inter-league night contests in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Flaherty to continue his progression and to easily out duel the “on again, off again” Boyd. Lay the price.

The set-up: For the most part these starting pitchers have struggled this year. Two veterans who have seen better days collide on Saturday afternoon and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Wei-Yin Chen, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA. He comes in on a bit of “tear” having won two straight, most recently going eight innings. However, I’m not convinced that Chen has suddenly “turned a corner,” as note that he’s still owns a poor 5.55 ERA in all “day” games and he’s a terrible 1-6 with a 9.35 ERA on the road.

Nova is so far 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a personal issue and while he’s been much better at home than on the road, I still think his overall inconsistency from game-to-game becomes a factor again today.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 day National League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Cole clearly comes in confident here sporting a 6-3, 2.79 ERA record on the road as well.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA. He got hit by a liner in his last start, but he’s been given the green light to go here. Price is putting together one of his best campaigns of his career as well, note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home so far.

The pick: This is a great match-up and I expect these two “studs” to fight into the latter frames. And as a result, look for this one to sneak “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the “run-line” the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there’s no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season.

Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work.

The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he’s a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Kennedy, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Kennedy is so far 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA. The rookie has struggled for the most part in his limited time and he stays in the starting rotation out of necessity. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road.

DeSclafani is 7-4 with a 4.37 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings. DeSclafani has looked better as the season has progressed and he also sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP.

The pick: Additionally note that DeSclafani is 4-2 with a respectable 4.14 ERA at home. And take it for what you will as well, but the Reds are 7-2 in their last nine night National League home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I expect DeSclafani to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price, play on the Reds.

The set-up: This American League match-up on Wednesday night features two pitchers who have seen better days. I expect the total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 4-13 with a 4.86 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off nine hits with three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out one in a loss to the Royals on Friday. Note that Cashner comes in sport a terrible 2-7, 5.27 ERA record on the road.

Leake is so far 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Overall Leake’s been solid for the most part this season, although not really at home with a pedestrian 3-5, 4.29 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. Yanks’ ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he’s a little over-valued. In the end I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He’s been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A’s Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he’d finally come back down to Earth in this one.

The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A’s on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I believe that Hyun Jin-Ryu and the Dodgers are worth the price of admission tonight. The visitors go with Zack Wheeler.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings, striking out none and receiving a no-decision for his effort against the Giants on Friday. Wheeler’s been on a great run of late, but one has to wonder how long he can sustain without showing some sort of regression?

Ryu is so far 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while also striking out five in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 innings Ryu has a 2.24 ERA and tiny 0.96 WHIP.

The pick: Ryu is also holding the opposition to a minuscule .186 batting average and note that he’s 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA at home. As good as Wheeler has been, I think the Mets’ anemic offense comes up short against Ryu. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage and lay this price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so great between these starting pitchers, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-13 with a 6.13 ERA. He most recently was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Friday. To go along with his atrocious ERA, Bailey also owns a poor 1.65 WHIP and note that he’s just 1-7 with a 5.94 ERA on the road.

Taillon is so far 11-9 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-2 win over the Braves on Friday.

The pick: Taillon comes in smoking hot, having posted seven straight quality starts to go along with a sharp 2.64 ERA and 37:9 K/BB over 47.2 frames during that stretch. Look for Taillon to come in focused on the task at hand and lay this price without any worries.

PITCHING CHANGE! NO PLAY! 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is no doubt one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so large between these starters, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc.

The pitchers: Cobb is so far 4-15 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. Seven of the eight hits he gave up were for extra bases. Note that he’s just 4-8 with a 5.22 ERA on the road this year.

LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.71 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless in a victory over the A’s on Thursday. LeBlanc hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp at home with a 6-2, 3.75 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 8-3 in its last 11 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Look for Cobb to implode early and for LeBlanc to take take advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. Neither has looked great of late though and I think each is going to get the hook early in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-7 with a 4.27 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Over five August starts Porcello stumbled to a 2-3, 4.78 ERA performance.

Newcomb is so far 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits with two walks in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Over his last four starts he’s posted a horrible 8.48 ERA and clearly that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense.

The pick: I think Porcello takes a step back in this difficult National League venue, while Newcomb also looks poised to continue his spiral down the proverbial crapper against this elite hitting line-up. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the hill tonight that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs on Zack Godley and the home side. The Padres turn to Bryan Mitchell.

The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA. He’s been activated from the DL to make this start. To go along with his terrible ERA, note that Mitchell also has a disturbingly poor 23:35 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work.

Godley is so far 14-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the Giants on Wednesday. Godley has now posted a quality start in four of his last six outings.

The pick: Note as well that Godley has been at his best at home this year by going 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA. Look for Godley to build off his latest performance and lay the 1.5 runs with confidence. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Matt Harvey, while the home side goes with the steady Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 6-7 with a 4.97 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over four innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Note that Harvey is a poor 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA on the road.

Williams is so far 11-9 with a 3.30 ERA. He’s been a revelation for the Pirates this season and he’s been particularly potent of late. Note that Williams owns a very respectable 2.91 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 9-3 in its last 12 National League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I think Williams comes in focused and out-duels Harvey. Play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Touki Toussaint.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA. After an unreal start for the Red Sox, Eovaldi predictably came crashing back down to Earth shortly after. Eovaldi hasn’t forgotten how to pitch though and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 4-1, 1.95 ERA record.

Toussaint is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. In his first outing for the Braves he’d impress everyone by giving up one run over six innings in a victory over Miami. Clearly the Red Sox present an entirely different challenge, but the rookie showed enough to impress me to make me think he’ll be able to last into the latter frames again here.

The pick: I think there’s a ton of value on the “under” as I expect these hungry starting pitchers to fight into the latter frames. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

analysis soon

The set-up: Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Sunday afternoon in this American League match-up. I believe runs will be plentiful with the Mariners turning to Felix Hernandez and the A’s going with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Hernandez has admittedly looked a lot better since an early August move to the bullpen in two subsequent starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 4-7 with a 6.95 ERA on the road.

Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA. After an un-sustainable start to his 2018/19 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth of late. Regardless though, Jackson has been decent overall, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 14 day American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. However, I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors go with veteran Jon Lester on the mound

The pitchers: Lester is so far 14-5 with a 3.67 ERA. He most recently comes in off a couple of decent outings and overall the southpaw has been fantastic this season. Lester’s been great, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back gems over the Nationals and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that he’s 9-0 with a tiny 1.94 ERA at home as well.

The pick: I’m banking on Nola continuing his strong play as he continues his perfect streak at home. Play on Philadelphia.

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who come into the end of the season struggling. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Lance Lynn.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 8-12 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the light-hitting Royals on Wednesday and while Boyd’s likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, note that he’s still a very poor 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year.

Lynn is so far 8-9 with a 4.84 ERA. After a great stretch, Lynn has come back down to Earth of late for the Yanks. Note that he owns a poor 2-4, 5.90 ERA in all “day” games this season also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though, especially on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it’s an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I think that Corey Kluber and the Indians on the “run line” are the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow this evening.

The pitchers: Glasnow is so far 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Thursday. Glasnow has been serviceable this season, but note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA on the road.

Kluber is 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA. Kluber comes in off perhaps the worst start of his career, giving up five runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Royals on Saturday.

The pick: No reason to hit the panic button if you’re a Kluber fan though, who is 8-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine night home contests in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout.