The Braves, already 5-1, have started with a bang.  All five wins were on the road.  The Padres have been just average at 3-3. Padres' starter Snell was pretty average in spring training, and while he struck out nine batters, he allowed three runs on six hits in just four+ innings in his first appearance. Young Braves' starter, Strider, wowed 'em in the spring and in his first start.  He also struck out nine, but allowed zero runs on three hits over six innings.  Atlanta's bullpen has also come out of the gate very quickly.

Both these teams have top-ranked offenses, but again, it is the Braves who have started the stronger.  Thursday's game will be the Braves' home opener, and I really like Atlanta's chances.  Take the Braves to win outright.

The Sox were absolutely crushed by the Giants on Monday, but they did split their first series with Houston and have their ace on the mound.  Cease was stellar last year, and started the same way in Game !, pitching into the 7th and giving up just 1 run on 2 hits.  Giants' starter Logan Webb struck out 12 in his first game, but also allowed 4 runs and 2 home runs.  The Giants put up 12 runs last time out, but they have already been shut out twice already this year.  The Sox have some very hot bats at the moment.

Take the White Sox to bounce back at home on Wednesday.

Seattle pulled out a 3-0 win over Cleveland on Opening Day but hasn’t won since, dropping four straight including one to the Angels here last night, by a score of 7-3. But given how well Luis Castillo pitched on Opening Day for the Mariners, it’s an easy decision to back them tonight.

Castillo gave the M’s six shutout innings of one-hit ball with six strikeouts and zero walks. In his previous two starts against the Angels, Castillo is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA. 

The Angels won’t have Anthony Rendon in the lineup again tonight. (He’s suspended). While it didn’t matter yesterday and the Halos have scored 26 runs in their last three victories, look for the offense to slow down here against Seattle’s top pitcher.

The Mariners’ lineup should get going against Jose Suarez, who is 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 11 previous starts against them. Suarez was just 8-8 with a 3.96 ERA last season.

The Guardians scored 3 times as many runs in one game as the A's have in all 3 of theirs to date.  Monday's starter Kaprielian has had a solid spring, but you need some offense to win games.  Plesac was better than average in March, and the Guardians have that fine bullpen in support.  The Guardians beat up on a very good Mariners pitching staff in their first series, and have more pop in their bats then they are credited for.  Certainly a lot more than the A's.  Take the Guardians to win this game outright. 7 stars.

These two teams have played 2 very high scoring games. Pitches' nightmares.  While neither bullpen has performed well, I am looking for Irwin, off a decent spring, to give the Orioles a better start on Sunday.  Boston starter Houck has had an absolutely brutal spring, and I doubt he'll have all problems solved yet.  Irwin gives a veteran presence to a very young team.  Look for Baltimore, an underdog, but who were very good at home last year, to win this one.

The Padres have started the season at 0-2 against a much weaker Rockies team, but the losing ends today. Colorado's starter Urena's spring training began well but has gone downhill since.  He has given up a run an inning and 5 home runs in his last three starts.  Urena has never beaten the Padres.  Padres' hurler Wacha is off an excellent 2022 and a decent spring. The Rockies have never won against Wacha. San Diego's bull pen should have the edge on Colorado.  The Rockies' bull pen does not project well this season, while the Padres' relievers are expected to be a plus.
The is a mighty Padres' offense, against a much weaker Rockies team who are notoriously poor on the road.  Take the Padres on the run line as they get back on track today.

The Astros lost their home opener yesterday, so will be all in to right the ship today. It is Lynn vs Javier, two very good pitchers with decent springs.  I'm wagering on Javier coming out on top.  His last star tin spring training was a 4 hit 5+ inning shutout.  This will be his year, and I think he will get it right, starting now.  Not to discount Lynn, but the Astros, are a formidable opponent, looking to repeat.  With superior pen and offense, they will bounce back today. 7 stars!

The Braves' starter Max Fried carried last year's success in to spring training and hasn't given up a run in the preseason.  Corbin, off two lost years, has been better in the spring, but we will have to see how that translates in seasonal play.  The Braves are first in batting through spring training, while the Nationals are 28th.  Washington made very few significant changes in the off season, and are facing likely the top team in the NL.  Anything can happen in baseball, but it is almost certain that the Braves will  win big.  Take Atlanta on the run line at -1 1/2. 7 stars!

Game Six features a rematch of Game Two starters, Wheeler and Valdez.  Wheeler was lights out early in the postseason, but struggled against the Astros in his last start, experiencing a much remarked-on loss of velocity.  He was not as good on the road in the regular season, and was hit very hard by Houston’s big three batters last time out.
Astros left-hander Valdez has done everything asked of him to date, pitching into the 7th and holding the Phillies to just 1 run with 9 strikeouts.  That is now four straight games with 2 runs or less allowed, and you can throw in a shutout vs. the Phillies down the stretch as well.
The Astros are a formidable team at home and their bullpen just doesn’t break down.  I can’t see Wheeler pitching for length on Saturday. The Phillies’ best relievers were used extensively in Game Five. While both teams have a days’ rest, the Astros still have a huge edge in relief pitching.  The Astros are now the confident ones, winning two straight on the road, and playing against a pitcher they have had recent success with.  I expect a gutsy game from Wheeler and the Phillies, but it will be skill and experience over emotion again.  Take the Astros to finish the Phillies off on Saturday.

Nothing like a bounce back co-operative no-hitter to inspire a bit of confidence for Houston.  Now in the Phillies' final home game of the series they run out Syndergaard, who had an average year throwing mainly soft stuff, but has been very good in brief appearances since mid-September. The Phillies will likely have a similar tactic on Thursday; anything over 3 or 4 innings will be a bonus.
Verlander has had a couple of ugly starts in the post season, each one after extended rest. He re-found his form after his dud against Seattle, giving up just 1 run over 6 innings against the Yankees.  Can he repeat in the same fashion after the Phillies roughed him up in game One?  His history would suggest it, although you've got to believe there will be a quicker response in moving to Plan B should he struggle early.
The Astros still have the better options post-starter on Thursday, and can better afford an early exit from a starter.  This one is a must-win situation for the Phillies, but the Astros are starting to get a good look at Philadelphia's relievers, and as good as the Phillies batters have been, they've had almost no success against Houston's pen.  Depth wins out over emotion in game 5.  Take the Astros to win again.

Everyone's favorite cinderfella team was at it again, stunning the Astros with a 7-0 rout. At home again today, it is the Phillies' Nola vs Christian Javier.  Javier, the Astros' young right hander, was lights out vs the Rays over 6+ innings in his only postseason start as well as nearly perfect in September (0.40 ERA over 22 innings.)  Nola shut out the Astros down the stretch, and pitched very well in his first two postseason starts, allowing just 1 run.  He has struggled since against the Padres and Astros, allowing 11 runs, and 4 HR, in his last 9 innings.  Both bullpens are in very good shape after the extra day of rest and yesterday's blowout.  The Phillies, with the supposedly inferior pitching staff, keep making it work, and they also keep pounding out the long balls, but I don't think this series is done yet.  Nola's very poor pitching is troubling, and while he will be on a short leash today, the Astros will be all in after yesterday's poor performance.  Look for Javier to silence the Phillies' bats and crowd today, and the Astros big bats to speak out.  The Astros bullpen was, as usual, very good again yesterday.  Take the Astros to win.

Even though the Fall Classic now moves to Philadelphia, I feel the pendulum has swung in the Astros’ direction.  The Astros were 2nd in the league against left-handers and have hit them very hard as well in the postseason. They are a very good road team.  
McCullers Jr should be recovered from the champagne bottle incident.  He has otherwise been very sharp down the stretch with a shutout of the Phillies and another in the postseason over the Mariners.
Suarez who has replaced Syndergaard after the rain delay has been up and down in the post season.  He was thumped by the Astros at the tail end of the regular season. I n the postseason, he was wild in his first start, walking 5 in 3 innings, although allowing just 1 run.  He settled down in his second start, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings against the Padres, and has come out of the bullpen on two occasions since.  The Phillies will likely keep him on a short leash, but Suarez does have a solid upside. The Astros have the edge in the later innings.  While the Phillies bullpen has been overachieving in the post season, the Astros relievers have been exceptional all year.
Of all teams, the Astros will be least affected by the noise in C B Park, having faced the very vocal ire of the fans in every stadium they have visited for years.  The Astros pitchers have also shut down Harper to date in the series.  The Phillies have a terrific home playoff record, but face a very experienced team with a great and well rested pitcher on the mound.  Take the Astros to steal this one on the road.

After a wild ride in game one of the WS, The Astros are favored to bounce back. With both starters faltering early and multiple bullpen arms used, the Astros definitely have the better relief options in game 2. Wheeler starts for the Phillies. Since returning from a stretch on the IL, has has been exceptional, and that fine play has stretched into the post season. Wheeler has the potential to pitch late into the game today, and has his best stuff in years. The Philllies have more than “made do” with their bullpen through the post season.

Astros’ left handed starter Valdez had a fine season, but did struggle down the stretch for a couple of games. He also struggled seriously in the Astros’ WS run last year. The Phillies hit left-handers well all season, are getting fine offense, and have momentum on their side. That extra innings win may have rattled the Astros’ cage. This wouldn’t be the first time that the Astros have lost out in a WS run. Unexpectedly down after blowing a big lead is unsettling, but more to the point, the Phillies must win Wheeler’s start to have any chance of defeating the Astros over the series. I am going with the Phillies’ offense, momentum and emotion today. (deep breath here) Take the underdog Phillies to steal this game.

The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight.  With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out.

.  He likely faces  Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season.  He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher.

Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest.  The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment.  They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense,  a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season.  It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one.

Lance McCullers Jr. has the opportunity to close out the series vs. the Yankees in 4 straight games on Sunday.  He has tossed just 8 games this season and has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of them.  He didn't face the Yankees this season, always an advantage in the early going. He threw a gem against the Mariners in the last series, a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout.  Now if he can just stay away from the bottle.

Lefty Nestor Cortes is the Yankees' last hope.  He face the Astros in June, allowing three runs over five innings, and is particularly good in Yankee Stadium.  Cortes had two solid outings in the Cleveland series, but this will be his second start on short rest. 

There is unrest in the Yankees dugout, with players questioning Boone's decisions.  The Yankees' big bats have done nothing against brilliant Astros' pitching, and a four game sweep does not seem outside of probability. Houston is still in a better position as far as pitching goes, and it is all smooth sailing under the wise hands of Dusty Baker.  McCullers has an extra day's rest. It is the Astros' bats that have done the damage; the Yankees managed just 3 hits against 6 Astros pitchers on Saturday.

Take the Astros, a small underdog, to finish the Yankees in four.

Game Three in NY should be the Yankees' best opportunity to win a game, but that is not to say it is guaranteed to happen.  It says much about the Astros' pitching staff that Javier was left out of the post season starting rotation.  He was a phenom down the stretch and pitched extremely well vs. The Yankees this year.  This will be his first post season start, but he threw 11 innings of solid relief in the 2021 post season, plus an unimpressive inning earlier this year.  
Cole has been a steadying influence  for the Yankees and with 2 wins to date, has pitched very well in the post season.  He also pitched well against the Astros in the regular season.  
The serIes has been all about the pitching to date, and it may continue that way. Even with a days' rest for both bullpens, you still have to  favor the Astros' pen.  They have been better than the Yankees in low total games through the season, and were 10-5 in road low total games. Even on the road and in Yankee Stadium, I can't count the Astros out.  An okay run line is available for Saturday.  Take the Astro at + 1 1/2.

It is Musgrove on the road vs Suarez in Game Three of the series. Musgrove has put his mid-season woes aside, pitched well down the stretch, and now has a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings in 3 post season starts. The Phillies got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings earlier in the season, but the Mets and Dodgers managed just a .152 ERA against him in his recent appearances.

Rangers Suarez starts for the Phillies. Suarez wasn’t as dominant this year, finishing at 10-7, with a 3.67 ERA, and struggled in his last regular season start, giving up 6 runs in 3 innings. He hs appeared once in the post season, pitching well but lasting only into the 4th inning. Given the packed nature of the series, the Phillies will need more innings out of Suarez today.

Both teams have been swatting the long ball in the post season; the Padres have a dozen and the Phillies, nine. The Padres have the better options once the starter is removed. I still believe the Phillies’ pen will come back to haunt them, starting today. I am on the Padres. They hit the Phillies’ pitchers especially hard yesterday, and it looks like the offense is starting to realize its full potential. Look for Musgrove to silence the crowd and the Padres to steal this game.

The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season.

Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year.

The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over.

The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch.

Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one.

The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, eliminating the Cardinals in two games and the Braves in four. The Padres are 5-2 since the playoffs began, needing three games to eliminate the Mets before shocking the Dodgers in four. Neither club was expected to get this far. So the question is who wins Game 1 of the NLCS?

I like the Phillies tonight, behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this entire season, but especially over the last month where he’s allowed only four runs over his previous five starts. Only one start since the All-Star Break has seen Wheeler give up more than five hits. He’s also allowed only one home run over his last six starts.

Pitching against the Padres back in May, Wheeler went seven innings, allowed only four hits and didn’t give up a run. That was his one and only start against SD this year, but he is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against them.

Yu Darvish also pitched in that series back in May. He too turned in seven scoreless frames. But then he faced the Phillies again in June and allowed three runs on seven hits. What has me worried about Darvish in this spot is the fact he’s already allowed four home runs in his two postseason starts. He’s very lucky that they were all solo shots and no more runs have been allowed. Darvish has now allowed at least one HR in four consecutive outings. 

I think the Phillies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. So I’ll back them in Game 1. 10*

With the Dodgers and the Braves now out, can the Yankees be the next juggernaut to fail?  The Guardians now have 2 kicks at the cat to win the series and are home in front of a delirious crowd today.   The Yankees' Cole returns on 4 days' rest, off a fine 6 inning 1 run performance in Game one. He has done it all before,  but has pitched past the 6th just once since August, and his ERA in the fifth and sixth innings is over 4.50.  His ERA on the road is a half run worse than in Yankee stadium.  The problem lies post-Cole as the Yankees bullpen is injured, weary and not what we have come to expect this year.  

Quantrill gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in Game one, but he was much better than that down the stretch.  He is 9-0 at home this year, and is a good candidate to bounce back today.  Game one was his first real appearance in the post season, and he can and will be on a shorter leash than Cole, with the Guardians' superlative bullpen behind him. 

The other advantage the Guardians have, beyond relief pitching, is coaching.  There is no one better than Francona in the pressure-filled post season. Boone made some questionable decisions yesterday.

The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies.  The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch.  The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September.  He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start.  His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72.
Syndergaard pitched a single successful inning in relief in game 2.  His season since joining the Phillies has been very average with an ERA in the mid-fours, although he bounced back with 7 innings of shutout ball in a start and a a long relief effort in his last 2 appearances.
The Braves have an edge in offense and relief pitching, but just haven't shown it yet.  The Phillies have the momentum and the crowd, but I can't count the Braves out today.  Syndergaard is not the Thor of old, and Morton has struggled.  I still don't trust the Phillies pen, and they may have to be relied on for multiple innings.  Take the over today. 9*!

It is Strider, the Braves’ young starter just back from the IL vs Nola, the Phillies veteran right-hander in Game three today. Nola has three shutouts in 4 games against the Braves, Astros and Cards in his last 4 starts. Nola has faced the Braves 4 times this year with mixed success, but has certainly come through down the stretch for the Phillies.

Strider has missed the better part of a month, but was dominant for the Braves, going 5-1 with an ERA of 1.71 in his last 7 starts. The only question is how long will he be able to pitch today?

The Braves have the edge on offense, and have an excellent road record. The Phillies’ bullpen has not been trust-worthy this year, nearly blowing a big lead in Game 1. As well as Nola has pitched down the stretch, the Braves have been able to get to him in the past, and the Phillies have had no success vs Strider. Take the Braves to win.

After a cancellation we will finally see  Game two of  the Cleveland New york series on Friday.  The Guardians have scored just four runs in three games, which may work against the Rays, but likely not vs. the Yankees.  It is doubtful if Cleveland will break out vs Yankees lefty Cortes, who has been very fine lately, at 3-1, 1.79/L7 games.  Cortes has thrown 13+ shutout innings in his last 2 starts, and gave up just 3 runs over 12+ innings against the Guardians this year.  The Guardians' offense drops to 28th in the league when facing a left-hander.
Bieber has been almost as good down the stretch as Cortes and pitched a very fine 1 run 7+ inning game in the wild card series.  Both teams have excellent bullpens; even with multiple injuries, the Yankees are still getting fine relief.
The Guardians are just 1-6 vs the Yankees, likely to become 1-7 on Friday.  At home and vs a right-hander, the Yankees have too much firepower to be denied.  Take the Yankees to win.

The big bats came through in game one of the Mariners and Astros match-up, hardly the tight pitching game that many expected.  The Mariners haven’t had success in Houston and pin their hopes on Luis Castillo today.  Left hander Valdez starts for the Astros.  Valdez had a fine start against the Phillies in his last appearance but was hit hard in his previous two appearances, giving up more than a run an inning.  Seattle has faced Valdez twice this season with modest success, scoring 6 runs, 3 in each game, over 11+ innings.  Valdez is better on the road with an ERA of more than 1 run higher in Houston.  He did not pitch well in the post season last year.
The same was true in Castillo’s last regular season starts; two poor starts followed by a strong outing.  Castillo then threw a 7+ inning shutout against the Jays, his first appearance in the post season.
Both these teams had very fine bullpens in the regular season, although the Mariners’ has struggled in the last couple of games.  The Mariners have, however, hit better than usual down the stretch.  Castillo is Seattle’s best chance to get a win against a very tough Houston side.  Look for him to pitch well again in his second career playoff start after a demoralizing Mariners’ loss in game one. Take Castillo to out-duel Valdez today, and the M's to win or stay close. I am taking the Mariners on the run line at +1 1/2.

A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today.  Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series.  He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month.  The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start.  Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout.
Kershaw has been equally sharp, with an ERA of 1.59 in his last three starts, and hasn't given up more than 2 runs since returning from the IL in early August.  He has pitched under 130 innings this year, and is well rested, so we should see vintage Kershaw today.  He has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings against the Padres in two previous appearances this season.
The Dodgers were the league's leading offense this year, but weren't quite as dominant down the stretch.  They got to Clevinger early yesterday but were held in check by the Padres' pen.  The Dodgers have a fine bullpen, also well rested at the moment.  
I expect solid outings from both starters today. This could be Darvish's finest season if he can make a solid play off run, but it is hard to argue with Kershaw.  The Dodgers' bullpen is formidable and well rested. The Padres' relievers shut down the Dodgers last night, and Darvish can pitch for real length.  Take Game 2 to go under the total.

The Phillies' ace Wheeler  finished the season with a surge, then threw a fine  6 inning shut-out in his first taste of post season play. He has pitched very well against the Braves this season after  facing them 3 times.  His last appearance against them was a 7 inning 1 run gem.
Wheeler's opponent Wright was 21-5 this year.  He has pitched a lot of innings in his first full year, and his ERA and opposing batters' avg. has crept up slightly at the last.  He had a taste of the postseason last year, and has pitched well vs the Phillies this season.
Both teams are hitting well, but the Phillies have the momentum of a WC series win and a steal in the first game against the Braves. The Braves have one advantage on paper in this series; the bullpen.  The Phillies' bullpen has had some very good relief efforts down the stretch.  I like the Phillies chances of a lead as long as Wheeler is in the game, and am counting on the bullpen to keep things close.

If the Padres had success against the Mets this year, they haven't against the Dodgers. Nor are they great against left-handers.  No one has had much success against Urias lately.  He is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.52 in his last 7 starts. The entire pitching staff will be well rested, so post-Urias (he pitches usually for 5 or 6 innings), that killer LA bullpen should be ready to go.  The Padres' right-hander Clevinger has had mixed results of late; 4 of his last 6 starts are of the poor variety, allowing more than a run an inning in those appearances. He was roughed up by the Dodgers twice in September.  He gave up 7 home runs last month, and has an ERA nearly double on the road.
The Dodgers have had the best offense in the league this year, but they've struggled with the bats lately.  The Padres are actually outhitting them at the moment, however I expect the Dodgers to show their offensive stuff for the third straight time vs the Padres.
I suspect LA is on a mission this year, starting tomorrow.  The Dodgers are a large favorite, but this is the one game I feel safe in going on the run line.  Take the Dodgers -1 1/2.

The Mariners stunned the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, storming back from an early 8-1 deficit to take Game 2 by a score of 10-9 and thus sweep the series. But the Astros should prove to be a far greater challenge, particularly with Justin Verlander on the hill Tuesday. 

Houston won 106 games and finished with the best record in the American League. They are overwhelming favorites to advance here and Verlander is an ideal choice to start Game 1, based on his Cy Young-worthy campaign where he posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts. 

The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners in the regular season and that includes a 5-1 record when Verlander started. Five of those six starts from Verlander were quality. The one that wasn’t came in Seattle.

Like Verlander, Seattle’s Game 1 starter (Logan Gilbert) has done an excellent job at getting out of jams and stranding baserunners. However, Gilbert seemed to overachieve in the regular season as his FIP and xERA were higher than what you’d want to see. Righties hit him better than lefties and the Astros lineup is righty-heavy.

Verlander is simply too good to fade here and the Astros are 55-26 at home. I expect them to get out to an early lead against Gilbert and also note the Astros are 42-13 in day games. 9*

The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings.

Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort.

The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over.

The Padres continued their season-long dominance of the Mets on Friday.  I underestimated Darvish, based on his past play-off record, and lost yesterday.  San Diego is a very good road team, and today’s starter is also a better pitcher on the road.  Left-hander Snell had a strong finish this year, with a 1.76 ERA over his last 7 games, and just 1 run given up in his last three appearances.  Snell has certainly been here before and has the opportunity to finally to come through for the Padres.
DeGrom is on the mound for the Mets.  He has given up more runs (and home runs) than expected in his last 4 starts, with an ERA of over 4.00 in his last 4 starts.  He has had finger issues, and hasn’t pitched in over a week,  so will be well rested.  He will likely be on a short leash should the finger issue flare up.
The Mets have a solid edge on offense, and are in the proverbial “backs to the wall” situation.   They are not as strong offensively against left-handed pitching however, dropping to mid-pack for the season. The Padres have the momentum, and a real chance to make a mark in the play-offs. Both teams have solid bullpens, lightly used yesterday.  Snell is the Padres’ best chance to win this series, and while they are a considerable underdog today, I expect them to either steal another game or at least stay close today. Take the Padres on the run line at +1 1/2.  9*!

The Guardians came a way with a victory in Game one, when the Rays couldn’t score more than a single run. This is not a new phenomenon; they managed just 1 or less runs in 6 of their last 9 games, and are hitting just .157 against right-handers in that time. The Rays runs for/against is an unhealthy 2.3/3.7, compared to the Guardians’ 4.6/2.85. The Guardians are also hitting a robust .286 against right-handers of late.

Glasnow has pitched well in his only 2 games of the season, but lasted just 3+ inning in each, and Tampa was unable to capitalize either time. He may pitch longer, but in game two of the wild card series everyone is available in relief. Triston MacKenzie starts for the Guardians. He out-dueled Glasnow and the Rays in a 2-1 victory just last week. MacKenzie has been all but unhittable at times this season, and can also pitch for length. Yogi Berra probably said something to the effect of “If you can’t score, you can’t win.” These words seem particularly applicable to the Rays at the moment. My money is on Cleveland, at home, to finish the Rays off in Game Two.

The Padres have had the Mets’ number this year, victorious in 4 of 5 games, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mets are also just 5-5 of late, and were swept by the Braves, before turning the tables on the Nationals. Game 1 of the Padres/Mets wildcard series features 2 fine veteran starters. Darvish is off a great season and was Pitcher of the Month in September. He has been remarkably consistent, pitching 6 innings or more in all but two of his 30 starts. He had 3 shutouts in September, and an ERA for the month of 1.55. He has beaten the Mets twice this year, allowing just 1 run in 14 innings. Darvish is not quite as good on the road.

Scherzer has had a light schedule, pitching just 4 times in September and October, so will be well rested. He was roughed up a bit in his last start vs. the Braves, but was very good in September with an ERA of 1.06 and an opposing batting avg. of .127. He is very good when pitching at home.

On offense the Mets have a solid edge. They are best in the league over the last two weeks, .291/.810 compared to the Padres’ .253/.710. The Padres hit much better on the road, but the Mets are very tough on right-handers.

The elephant in the room is Darvish’s very poor post season record (2-5, 5.18). Scherzer has been a good bet in post-season. The Mets have a pair of very hot top ten hitters over the last 2 weeks, and the best closer in baseball. In spite of Darvish’s fine season and the Padres’ strong record vs. the Mets this year, I am wagering on the home team. Mets to win.

Game One of the Mariners/Jays wild card series pits righty vs. righty, Castillo against Manoah, in what should be a pitchers’ duel. The Mariners have swept the Jays this year; those four straight losses to Seattle were the Jays’ low point, resulting in a management change. The two teams are 2nd and 3rd in MLB offense over the last two weeks, although it is not as close as it sounds. The Jays have a considerable edge recently and for the season. The Jays are very tough on right-handed pitching.

Castillo had been scuffling a bit, with an ERA of over 5.00 in his last three starts, but rebounded with a 6 inning, 2 run outing last time out. He held the Jays to the same line when he faced them in May.

The Jays’ Manoah has been very sharp L7 and has given up just 1 run over 19 innings in his last three appearances. He pitched into the eighth, giving up 2 runs when he last faced the Mariners.

The Mariners have an excellent bullpen but they have given up more runs than expected lately, against sub-.500 teams. The Jays’ pen is solid when called upon for a couple of innings but can struggle past that.

Manoah has been very impressive down the stretch, and gets the nod in game one. The Jays also have the edge on offense, and are a much better team when playing at home. Take the home team Jays to win game one.

The Cubs have lost two straight to the Reds, after a 7 game win streak. Runs have been scarce in the series, just 6 total in the first 2 meetings. I played on Wednesday’s pitchers successfully last week. Cubs’ starter Sampson continued his stellar stretch run, pitching 7 strong innings of one run ball. His ERA is a very sharp 1.70 in his last 7 starts. I expect him to finish strongly and will remember him for next year.

Reds’ starter Ashcraft lasted just 2+ innings against the Cubs, giving up 5 runs. His starts have been going in the wrong direction, allowing more runs in shorter starts.

Neither teams is hitting, with both averaging well under .200 lately. This may be the Cubs’ opportunity to break out. They got to Ashcraft early and went on to their biggest win in some time, finishing 6-1. I expect a similar result on Wednesday. Take the Cubs to win.

Last night’s 4-3 loss to the Tigers resigns the Mariners to being a road team in the Wild Card Round where they will travel to face either Toronto or Cleveland. The M’s currently have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays for the fifth seed, which would mean a matchup with Toronto. Looking to bounce back Tuesday, Seattle has shuffled its starting rotation and I like them to win the first game of this doubleheader. 

Detroit has been a decent “spoiler” down the stretch and by winning 11 of its last 13 games, they’ve already ensured they won’t lose 100 games. Unless they lose out and Kansas City wins out, the Tigers won’t finish in the basement of the AL Central either.

It was going to be Marco Gonzales starting this first game for Seattle, but that’s been changed to Chris Flexen and the nightcap will now be a bullpen game. Flexen hasn’t actually started a game since 8/6, but has made one relief appearance against the Tigers since then. Detroit has one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball, ranking last in runs, last in slugging and 29th (next to last) in OBP. I expect Flexen to turn in a strong outing here.

Can’t say the same for the Tigers’ Eduardo Rodriguez though. He got bombed for six runs in a 7-0 loss to Seattle back on Sept 1. While Rodriguez has posted three consecutive quality starts coming into this game, a fourth would be surprising seeing as how he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the year.

Seattle can wrap up the 5-seed with a sweep today. So look for them to come out strong and take this first game of the doubleheader. Detroit is just 9-19 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year. 9*

.

You have to feel for the Reds’ rookie pitcher Hunter Greene this year. He took it on the chin for weeks early in the season, then gets his act together with a fine 2.01 EAR in his last 7 starts and still can’t win, getting little support from the Reds’ bats or pen.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are loving it down the stretch, winning 9 of 10. While their bats are still sub-par, they are getting great pitching from all quarters, allowing just 6 runs total in their last 6 games. Wesneski, the Cubs’ fine young rookie has impressed, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety. He faced the Reds in August and blanked them over five innings.

The Reds are in the cellar on offense, hitting a remarkably poor .169/.497 in the last week and have the bullpen struggling as well. Take the Cubs to win again today, although it may take the full nine innings.

The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

The Phillies are just 4-6 and holding down a wild card spot. Barely… They were blanked in the Cubs series, scoring just 4 runs in 3 games, but did bounce back on Friday night vs the Nationals. The Nat’s are just 3-7 and haven’t been hitting more than 3 runs a game in 9 of 10 starts. Anibal Sanchez starts for the Nationals. He has put together a surprising light-out 6 weeks at 3-1 and 1.31 ERA in his last 7 games.

His opponent Gibson has been very volatile lately with just 1 quality start in September. Otherwise it was a cruel month as he gave up more than a run an inning, with an opposing batting average of .379.

The Phillies have a better offense than the Nationals, but no one has hit Sanchez well right lately. Gibson has had some solid starts this year, but is not a very good bet to pitch well right now. Add to that a surprisingly good bullpen of late and the Nationals have a prime spoiler opportunity. A win against the Phillies is not out of the question, but take the Nationals to at least stay close, on the run line at +1 ½.

Things are looking up for the Marlins down the stretch.  They are 6-4 L10, are out of the cellar on offense lately and have their ace on the mound today.  Alcantara has been terrific lately, pitching for such length that he needs little support from the pen, and allowing just 4 runs over 24 innings in his last three games.
Meanwhile, the Brewers lost last night, are just 5-5 lately, and are outside looking in for a Wild Card spot at the moment.  They also have their ace on the mound today, but all is not perfect in Burnes-ville lately.  His ERA over the last two months is well over 4.00 and his innings pitched are down.  The Brewers desperately need a win but Alcantara is a very tough out, and with Miami actually scoring some runs, today's game is a  perfect spoiler opportunity.  I like the Marlins' chances today.  Take them on the run line and watch them win or cover.

The Reds are 3-7 and were swept by the Pirates in their last series.. They are hitting just .184/.597 in the last week, making the mid-pack Cubs offense look like a powerhouse. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on a roll, winning 7 of 8, and getting great pitching. Cubs’ right hander Sampson has been sharp with a 2.78 ERA over his last 7 games, giving up just 2 runs over 18 innings in his last three starts. He beat Ashcraft, Friday’s starter and the Reds in August.

Ashcraft is just one game back from the IL, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits over 4 innings on his return. Don’t look for any support from the Reds’ pen. They are struggling with an ugly ERA of over 8.00 in their last games. Meanwhile the Cubs’ relievers have been very sharp. Lately.

The Reds have struggled badly in September while the Cubs are at home and probably enjoying their success down the stretch. I foresee another Cubs’ victory on Thursday. Cubs to win outright.

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Phillies have lost three straight, not what the Doctor ordered for a wild card run.  I am backing the Cubs on Wednesday and getting some very favorable odds.  They face a very experienced and successful starter in the Phillies' Nola on Wednesday, but have taken two straight from this same team.  The Cubs are surprisingly good as a home underdog this season and have a better record in September. The Phillies are struggling on the road at the moment.  They are hitting just mid-pack and giving up too many runs.  The bullpen has been unable to finish of late, with an elevated ERA.
The Cubs aren't hitting very well but they are getting solid pitching, both in starting and relief.  Wednesday's starter, Wesneski, is young and inexperienced but he doesn't pitch like it at all. Just a few starts into his career, he pitched into the 7th and gave up 2 and 1 runs in his last two appearances, allowing a total of 8 hits.
Tuesday night's game was a pitchers' duel, broken open with a late run against the Phillies' bullpen.  I expect a similar result on Wednesday.  Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Phillies are hoping for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League, but have not helped themselves recently by losing 7 of 10. Now all but one of those seven losses came at the hands of the Braves, who are one of the best teams in baseball. But the team Philly is facing now swept them back in July and I see an excellent opportunity to back the Cubs +1.5 at home in the series opener.

The Cubs have won five of their last six games, so they come in as the hotter team. When they went to Philly two months ago, they ended up outscoring the Phillies 25-7 in the three-game sweep. Now they get them at home. The Phillies have not been a good road team in 2022, especially of late, dropping 12 of 17 and four straight away from home. 

Cubs’ starting pitching has the third lowest ERA (3.15) in MLB since the All Star Break. Marcus Stroman is on the hill tonight and looking to make it three consecutive quality starts. Against Miami and Colorado, Stroman allowed just four runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He’s pitched better than his record shows with a 3.80 ERA and 1.162 WHIP and has a 2.49 career ERA against the Phillies. 

Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler hasn’t been great for Philadelphia recently, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP his last three starts. It may be a short leash tonight as Wheeler only worked four innings last Wednesday in his first start in almost a month after being bothered with a forearm issue.

Give me the Cubs on the run line tonight as they’ve already proven they can dominate the Phillies and are in better form entering this series. 10*

Cleveland has really turned it on down the home stretch, winning 18 of its last 21 games including seven straight. They’ve clinched the AL Central, which makes it four pennants in Terry Francona’s time here as well as six playoff appearances in 10 years. Each of the last seven Guardians’ victories have been by at least two runs. They’ve outscored the opposition 53-24.

Tampa Bay is trying to get into the playoffs themselves. They appear safe with a 3.5 game cushion for one of the three Wild Card spots. But what started as a promising weekend in Toronto, with two wins where they scored 10 runs each game, ended poorly for the Rays as they lost both Saturday and Sunday. 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup features a pair of hurlers that both won a Cy Young for Cleveland. Shane Bieber is still pitching for the Guardians and thriving with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP his past three starts. But former teammate Corey Kluber has been struggling for the Rays, posting a 7.42 ERA and 1.799 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kluber did have a nice outing last week vs. Houston, but the team still lost. The Rays are 0-3 in Kluber’s last three starts while the Guardians are 4-0 in Bieber’s last four. Bieber is simply the superior starter in this matchup.

Tough to like Tampa on the road where they’ve gone 2-8 this year as a dog of +125 to +175. Cleveland is 20-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Cheap price on the home team in this one. 9*

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The 5-5 Marlins have been tough against the Nationals in Miami for some time, have won two straight against the Nats,  and are a surprisingly big favorite today.  The Nationals have struggled lately at just 3-7.  Right handed veteran Sanchez starts for Washington.  While his record may not show it, he has pitched well lately, with an ERA of 2.10 over his last 7 games.  He faced Miami in his last start, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings, and has a road ERA of 2 runs less this season.

He faces another right-hander, Miami's Cabrera. Cabrera is 6-3 for the season, but has not been quite as sharp, with a worse ERA than Sanchez's at 3.49 L7.  He hasn't pitched past the fifth lately and has also given up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts.

Both teams have been getting very good relief pitching; the Nationals pen has oddly been better than Maimi's.  The Marlins have been hitting better just lately, but are generally a poor bet against a righty.  The odds seem very high for weak team like Miami.  The Nationals took two of three from the Marlins in their home series.  Take Washington on the run line today at + 1 1/2.

Atlanta swept the Phillies last week and it appears the Phillies are repaying the favor this week, now up 2-0 in their home series. The Braves’ usually overpowering bats have cooled off, but their pitching other than on Friday has been excellent. Atlanta is one of the best teams against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is usually very good off a loss. Off three straight losses, I expect a bounce back win from the Braves, getting Kyle Wright his 20th win of the season. Wright is a cool 6-0 in his last 7 games, with an ERA of 3.05. He has given up just 3 runs in his last 2 games after a debacle of a start against the A’s, his worst of the season.

Wright faces Brady Falter, who has been dynamite down the stretch, winning 5 games and with a 2.45 ERA over his last 7 starts. He stymied the Braves, allowing 1 run over 5 innings in his last start and the Phillies still lost. Falters’ starts are usually of the 5 inning variety and he has not been as strong at home this season.

The Phillies are just 9-9 in September and just over .500 vs right-handers. Their bullpen has been an issue of late with an ERA approaching seven, and may prove to be the difference on Saturday. Take the Braves to bounce back and win.

The young upstart Orioles knocked off the Astros, something very few teams have been able to do. The Orioles have been a good home team this season, and have one of their better starters on the mound. Kremer has been very sharp, going 3-1, 2.79 in his last 7 games. He faced Houston in late August, pitching 7+ innings and allowing just 1 run on 4 hits.

The Astros have looked nearly unbeatable, but have clinched, so the pressure is off. Urquidy starts on Friday and he has been struggling in his last 2 starts, giving up more than a run an inning to the A’s and Angels. Urquidy faced the Orioles in Late August and was out-dueled by Kremer, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings.

Can the Orioles knock off the Astros two straight? Their bats had been slumping but they have been hitting right-handers well of late. Their bullpen, dependable all year, had also been slipping but has bounced back recently. The Astros have been doing most things right, good offense and superlative relief pitching, but can still be stymied by strong pitching. Take the Orioles on the run line at +1 ½.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

The Pirates will be glad to get off the road after being swept by the Mets, and pummeled by the Yankees. They are up against the Cubs, and the pair of teams are underachieving on offense. The Pirates’ bullpen was also savaged by the Yankees. Keller starts for the Pirates and has an ERA of 3.50 over his last 7 games. He has thrown 4 straight quality starts, all 6 innings or over with 2 shutouts mixed in, but the Pirates have only won 2 of those starts. Don’t count on much support from the Pirates’ relievers today. They have walked off the plank with regularity lately.

The Cubs are 5-5 lately and haven’t scored a ton of runs, but they are hitting right handers better than the Pirates. Their pitching, both the starters and relievers, has been solid of late. Rookie Wesneski starts for the second time. This youngster has great stuff and rolled off 7 innings of 1 run 7 strikeout ball in Colorado in his first start. I don’t usually bank on rookies until proven, but the combination of Wesneski and a better bullpen should sway the game in the Cubs’ favor today. Take the underdog Cubs to win on the road.

The 9-1 Astros have clinched but don’t appear to have taken their foot off the gas, shutting out the Rays in two straight road games. They are the best hitting team in the league over the last 2 weeks, and don’t give up many runs. Their run differential over the last 7 games is a remarkable 5.3/1.9.

After 2 straight losses, the 6-4 Rays are desperate for a win, but that outcome is uncertain as they face yet a third excellent Astros’ starter. McCullers Jr. has only 6 starts this year, and while he has yet to give up more than 3 runs, he is really just rounding into top shape now. He struck out 11 in his last start and has given up 2 or less runs in his last 4 appearances.

Standing between the Rays and the broom is veteran Kluber. He has had some quality starts, but certainly not his last two, and there have been more than a few poor outings this year. The Rays have not hit well in recent weeks, and have a run differential of 3.6/3.1. Their bullpen is good as usual, but is overworked, and can’t compare at the moment to the Astros’ with a 1.29 ERA over the last 10 games.

If this were any other year, I would be on the Rays to bounce back, but they are not quite their usual irritating selves. Take advantage of very decent odds and wager on the Astros today.

After being swept by the Cubs, the Mets got a wake-up call and have reeled off 5 straight wins, the last two against the home town Brewers. NY hasn’t had much success vs the Brewers until this series. They are a very good road team, great vs right handers and top of the heap in offense lately. The Brewers are just 9-9 in September and are giving up more runs than expected for a team built on pitching. Houser starts for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. While 2 of 3 of his last starts were very good, he gave up 4 runs over 3 innings in his last start, and has been all over the map since a recall from the IL in late August.

He faces Walker, who has had a solid season for the Mets, but considering the state of the Mets’ starting pitching, will need to press down the stretch just to make the play-off roster. Walker usually pitches late into the game, and is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.25 in his last 7 starts.

The Mets have a great run differential lately, and a lights-out bullpen. The Brewers’ relief corps has been heavily used and hit hard. I am on the Mets to win on Wednesday although it may be close early. Mets to win outright. 9*!

The Mariners lost three straight before bouncing back in a big way against the Angels. They move to Oakland where they have a 10-2 record. They are usually a very good road team, and have an excellent starter on the mound on Tuesday. Castillo was a great pick-up for the M’s, and has been especially sharp lately with 2 shut-outs and a 1.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had an off day vs the A’s the last time he faced them, and is a very good bet for a bounce back.

The A’s are a poor home team and just 4-12 in September. They have given up plenty of runs and really struggle against a quality starter. JP Sears is on the mound. He had a good run when first moving to Oakland, but has fallen on hard times in his last two short and poor starts. Sears will get little support from a roughed up A’s bullpen.

The Mariners aren’t hitting for avg. but their power figures are good lately. The A’s aren’t hitting at all.

The A’s can occasionally surprise someone, but the Mariners are in tough in a pennant race and will be motivated on Tuesday. Take the Mariners on the run line.  9*!

The Angels and Rangers have been equals in futility this year but the Angels have looked better in September at 7-8 compared to 5-12. LA took an impressive 3 of 4 against Seattle, with some solid pitching in a couple of those starts. Left hander Sandoval is on the mound on Tuesday. He has been a very solid starter for some time and has an ERA of 1.69 in his last 7 starts. He has been giving up a few more hits, but just 5 runs in his last 3 starts. Sandoval has been better on the road this season. While they struggled last night, the Angels’ bullpen has had some solid outings lately.

The Rangers are 4-6 and their bats have cooled off after a good offensive run. Rookie left hander Ragans has just 6 starts to date, and just 2 since returning from a brief IL stint. He blanked Houston over just 3 innings in his first start back but then was shelled by Oakland, allowing 7 earned runs over 4 innings. Don’t expect any length from Ragans on Tuesday.

I am on the Angels in this game. Sandoval has impressed, and is due some run support. The Angels have been hitting better lately and have a real opportunity to run up the score against Ragans. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Twins finally snapped their long losing streak here in Cleveland by winning Sunday, 3-0. Their season remains very much “on the brink” however, as they still trail the Guardians by six games in the Central. Today’s finale is pretty much “must win” for the road team (as are the rest of their games). I’ll be backing them.

The six-game edge Cleveland currently enjoys over Minnesota is a straight byproduct of a 12-6 record in head to head matchups. Other than that, the teams profile as being pretty evenly matched. They have similar run differentials. But I like the spot for the Twins, who are 8-5 coming off a shutout win while the Guardians are 3-6 after being shutout in their previous game. 

Cleveland’s record at Progressive Field also isn’t that great. They’ve actually allowed more runs than they’ve scored here.

I’m aware that CLE starter Quantrill has not had a losing decision at home in quite some time (last year!) But the Twins’ Sonny Gray, who has a 1.81 ERA since the All-Star Break, is the better pitcher in Monday’s matchup. In 9 of his last 10 starts, Gray has given up two runs or less.

The Guardians don’t have a very strong lineup - they average just 3.9 runs/game at home - so expect Gray to dominate this afternoon. There could be a rain delay, but when the teams take to the field, it will be the Twins coming out ahead. 10*

The Reds have lost 3 straight against the Cardinals, aren't hitting, and are just 6-11 in September.  They are a very poor road underdog, and struggle against left-handed pitching.  Their starter Cessa was hit hard in his last appearance, but has otherwise been average with short starts.
The Cardinals are 11-5 in September and tough to beat at home.  Lefty Jordan Montgomery struggled for the first time since becoming a Cardinal, but is a very good bet to bounce back today.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of 2.28 in his last 7 starts  The Reds have yet to face Montgomery.
The Reds are giving up twice as many runs as they score lately and have had some lopsided losses.  The odds strongly favor the Cardinals, and with Montgomery on the mound and that lights' out pen, I will take them on the run line.

The Jays, off a home win, face the Orioles in game two of their series. The Jays are a good home team especially in the second half. They are 11-4 in September, very tough on right-handers, and hitting for both average and power recently. Berrios, Saturday’s starter has been an enigma this year, but he has been much better lately and very good at home this year. Even with Berrios’ inflated ERA, the Jays win when he is on the mound.

The over-achieving Orioles have struggled against the other AL East teams lately and have slipped out of a wild card spot. They are below .500 on the road and against right-handed pitching. They aren’t hitting especially well and their bullpen is struggling. Saturday’s starter is rookie right-hander Bradich. He has had an excellent 2nd half, but gave up 3 runs and 6 hits over 3 innings to the Jays just two starts ago. The Jays have seen a lot of Bradich this year, with good success; 6 of their lineup are hitting .333 or better against him.

The Jays are streaking in a good way lately, and can be very tough after some good looks at a pitcher. With 4 games against Bradich already, I like them to hit him hard again. They are a middling favorite on Saturday. Take the Jays to win outright. 9*!

The Mariners face the Angels today, and are hoping to keep pace in the very close ALwild card. They are 8-4 in September, a very good road team, especially as a road favorite, and have had their way with the Angels this year. Lefty Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. After 2 straight shut outs, he gave up 4 runs against the Braves in his last start. Ray absolutely sparkled in August and is a good bet to bounce back . He has faced the Angels twice this year, with a pair of 7 inning 1 run outings to show.

The Angels are 3-9 as a home underdog, and 4-8 in September. They have a poor runs scored to runs allowed ratio lately at 3.6/5.0. Lorenzen is just back from a very long stay on the IL and opened with a solid start vs. the Astros. The Mariners have had good success against Lorenzen this year.

The Mariners are hitting better for power lately and should Ray need it, very good support from their stellar bullpen. The Angels struggle against left-handed pitching. Take Ray and the Mariners to get back on track with a road victory today. 9*!

The 3-7 Royals have taken over the cellar on offense in the last two weeks. They were swept by the Twins, managing just 5 runs in 3 games. They are very poor on the road, and have really struggled against right-handed pitching. Heasley starts for KC. He has had the rare good start but has struggled lately (2-4, 6.75/L7 starts), and was shelled by the Tigers in his last outing.

The Red Sox are off a pair of losses to the Yankees, but hitting has not been the issue, with a healthy .268/.770 line. They scored 17 runs for Wacha, Friday’s starter, in his last start. As disappointing as Boston’s season has been, they are a terrific 8-0 when favored at home. Wacha has been the Red Sox’s best pitcher this year, and has been solid in his recent appearances. He is unusual, pitching much better in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. Both teams have been getting good relief pitching lately, but I expect a longer start from Wacha.

It could be a tough day for Heasley in Fenway park. After a long stretch against the AL East, I expect some run production from the Red Sox on Friday. Take the Sox on the run line, at – 1 ½.

The Phillies knocked off the home team Marlins on Wednesday, scoring 4 runs against the bullpen to win. The Phillies need wins to keep their wild card hopes alive this season. It is the worst vs the first in offense on Thursday. The Phillies are flying at .296/.863. Not so the Marlins at .217/.601 over the last two weeks. Miami is just 3 and 7, managing just 2 runs against Philadelphia in their last two starts.

The Marlins pitching, including relievers, has struggled almost akin to their bats of late. Thursday’s starter Lopez who has had some very good moments this season, has regressed lately and is 1-4, 6.17 in his last 7 games. He gave up 8 runs in 3+ innings in his last start. A couple of H’s, Hoskins and Harper have had Lopez’s number in previous meetings.

Syndergaard starts for the Phillies and has pitched reasonably well in his last two starts. He is no longer overpowering, so don’t look for shutout innings from him any more. The Phillies, bullpen has been reasonable in relief lately.

Neither starter has pitched especially well lately, but the Phillies are the far better offense with a more effective bullpen, and the motivation to win. Look for the Phillies to break out the brooms on Thursday. Phillies to win.

The 6-4 White Sox are off a win, and putting the charge in the ball lately, at least top three over the last two weeks. They are hitting lefties especially well. They are just three games back of the division leading Guardians, their only hope for a playoff spot. They are not the best team on the road, but have their ace on the mound on Wednesday. With two shutouts in his last two starts, one of them a complete game effort, Cease is as good as anyone in the league, and boy, has he been getting run support lately, 25 runs in the last 2 games. To make matters worse for the Rockies, Colorado have almost no experience against him. Should he need bullpen support, the White Sox relievers have been solid of late.

While they have won their last two home series, the Rockies are a different animal on the road, and very poor as a road underdog. They are also the second worst team on offense in the league when on the road. Lefty Freeland has had mixed success this year, but he has pitched well in his last three starts, giving up just 4 runs in 16+ innings. As one might expect, his ERA is two runs less when pitching on the road. The Rockies’ bullpen has not been kind to him (or anyone else) lately, as Freeland has come away with just 1 win in those three games. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.20 in their last 10 games.

I have been burned on some run line wagers this year, but even considering Freeland’s recent success, the combination of Cease and a hot White Sox line up makes me wager on the Sox and the run line on Wednesday

The Braves let me down last night, losing 3-2 to the Giants. They fell behind 3-0 and were just not able to close the gap. Going 2 for 7 with runners in scoring position really hurt. When you have 10 hits, you should probably score more than two runs.

Despite losing with them last night, I’m back on the Braves here. It’s a great spot to back them. Not only do they own a 35-16 record when off a loss this year, but they are 2-0 when coming off three straight losses. That’s right, the Braves have not lost four in a row at any point in 2022. History says they’ll win tonight.

It’s not like the Giants are any good either. They’ve been a bad team to bet on (-22.2 units) and have scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games. They’ve been lucky to string together a few wins in a row, but you can’t consistently beat Atlanta with that little offense. 

Atlanta is 20-6 with Kyle Wright starting this season. Wright got away with allowing eight runs in his last trip to the mound as the Braves rallied for a 10-9 win over Oakland. Unbeaten over his last five starts, Wright had allowed just three runs in his previous four starts before going against the A’s. He’ll bounce back facing a Giants team that is hitting .207 the last week. The Braves have lost only one of Wright’s last 13 starts!

Jake Junis has a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three starts for San Francisco. He must contend with a much stronger lineup than what Wright will face in this matchup. Atlanta comes in as the second highest scoring team in baseball. 10*

The 8-2 Braves, off a rare 2 straight losses, travel to SF to meet the Giants. The Braves are a good road team a very solid bet to bounce back after a loss, but they face a strong starter in Giants right hander Alex Cobb. Cobb hasn’t faced the Braves this year, and has been dominant at home. He is 2-1, 2.90 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Giants haven’t scored many runs of late, with a runs scored/allowed of 2.9/3.9.

The Giants face a very good rookie pitcher in Spencer Strider. Strider has come in to his own this year, and is 5-1, 2.23 ERA in his last 7 games, with a remarkable 16 strikeouts in just 2 starts ago. He struggled against the Giants in June, a rare poor start this season. Strider is not quite as strong on the road, but has had a ton of run support this year.

Atlanta has won 3 of 4 vs. the Giants this year, all of them close. Cobb hasn’t had much run support this year, and the Giants’ bullpen have struggled to support him. The Braves are getting excellent relief pitching lately. They are one of the best teams for power, and the wind is blowing out today. I wouldn’t bet on the Braves losing 3 straight. It may be close, but take the Braves to win.

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

The Orioles knocked off the Red Sox to stay within reach in the wildcard race. They ran in to a tough Jays team in their last series but have been very tough on sub .500 teams this year. They are also very good at home. Lyles starts for the Orioles on Saturday. He has pitched very well at 4-1, and with an ERA of 2.72/L7, but his low point lately was a 9 hit, 4 run, 4 inning appearance vs the Sox. His last two starts were very good. Lyles is a much better pitcher at home.

The 5-5 Red Sox were swept by the Rays and are now down a game in Baltimore. They were hitting very well, but have fallen off in the last week. Wacha, who has been the Sox’ best pitcher this year., starts on Saturday. He has been back from the IL for 6 starts and 5 of them were of good quality. He shut down the Orioles in August, pitching into the 6th and allowing 4 hit and no runs. Wacha has been less effective on the road, and there is a trio of Orioles hitters who have had very good success over the years.

This could be a good match-up between the starters, and it may come down to relief pitching, in which case the Orioles have a decided advantage. That and the Orioles’ home field success leads me to lean towards Baltimore. Take the Orioles to win.

The 5-5 Brewers are struggling to keep pace and are down a couple of starters. They can’t hit lefties lately. Today’s pitcher, Alexander is a reliever/spot starter, who has pitched two starts recently to mixed results. His starts are short as would be expected. He gave up 3 runs over 4+ innings in his last appearance.

The Reds are off a pair of winning series, are 4-2 in September, and hitting well in recent games. We saw the Reds take off earlier in the season. They don’t usually have much success vs the Brewers, but today could be a solid opportunity for them.

Lodolo, a promising rookie left-hander, has also had some mixed results lately, but is very good when on. He has tossed a pair of 6 and 7 inning shutouts, mixed in with poorer results. Expect much more length from him than from Alexander.

Neither bullpen has been especially sharp lately, and the Brewers will need to turn to it early. With 2 of their last 3 starters lasting only 2+ innings and a double header yesterday, their relievers may be over-extended today. Take the underdog Reds to win or at least stay close today.  Reds on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*!

The Streaky Jays are on a tear again, winning 9 of 10, and are hitting well, moving back into the top 5 teams on offense in the last week. They have the very dependable veteran right-hander, Ross Stripling on the mound. Stripling has done more than was expected of him, and is 3-1, with an ERA of 2.50 over his last 7 starts. He faces Ranger’ righty Dane Dunning, who has been uneven lately, struggling in two of his last three starts.

The Rangers have won just once in 10 games and haven’t been hitting, especially vs. right-handers. Their runs for and against are 3.0/5.1 L7. Switch those numbers around and you have the Jays’ for and against production.

Toronto is in the heart of the pennant race, and players who weren’t hitting are beginning to show well. They are especially tough on right handers. Off some solid length from the starters, and with a day of rest, the bullpen is rested and has been very sharp lately. Look for the Jays to come out firing on all cylinders on Friday. A Jays win is in the offing.

The Yankees brass must just be chewing their own livers when they see the play of lefty J P Sears in August and September. He has allowed just 8 runs over 27+innings in 5 starts since joining the A’s. What he won’t do is pitch much past the 5th. He is up against a premier starter in the White Sox’ Dylan Cease on Thursday. Cease has a 2.38 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has given up just 2 runs in 17 innings in his last 2 outings. Cease one-hit the As over 6 innings at the end of July.

After winning 6 of 8 games, the Sox still have an outside shot at a wild card spot, especially if they can take advantage of games against teams like the As. The Sox are a good road favorite this season. They are hitting well at the moment, and aren’t giving up many runs lately.

The As have won just 1 of 7 games, and unlike the Sox, are giving up nearly 6 runs a game lately. They have struggled against right-handers all year, and their bullpen has allowed some inflated numbers in recent games.

Sears has shown well recently, but the White Sox are tough on lefties, and Sears can’t match the quality of the Sox’ starter Cease. Chicago needs this game, and has been much better in all regards lately. Take the Sox to win on the run line at -1 1/2.  9*!

The Marlins are 1-9 in recent action and have lost 2 straight to the Phillies. They scored three runs yesterday, which was their highest total in ten games. They have their ace on the mound today which normally would have been a great opportunity to stop the bleeding. Alcantara has already pitched nearly 200 innings this year, and isn’t pitching quite as well, with an ERA of over four in his last seven starts, nor does he pitch quite as deep into games lately. His ERA is higher on the road. The Phillies are the rare team that has had success against him in the past.

The Philies are just 5-5 lately, and need the sweep to keep in the play-off race. They are hitting very welll, especially for average lately. Gibson starts for the Phillies today. He was blown out of the water in his last game, but has been a very effective pitcher this season and was 3-1 in August with a 2.30 ERA including a solid start vs the Marlins. After such a short start, he will at least be well-rested.

The Marlins recent offense is woeful at .182/.506, and they have had little success vs the Phillies. I expect Gibson to bounce back form his last start, and possibly a sub-par performance from Alcantara. The Marlins bullpen has struggled in recent games, with an ERA of over six in their last five games. Take the Phillies to win .

The Nationals have played much better in September, winning series vs the Mets and A’s, and splitting the first 2 games of their present series. They haven’t been good as a road underdog this season and have struggled vs. left-handed pitching. The 8-2 Cardinals are very strong at home, and are 3-1 vs the Nat’s this year. Both teams are hitting well lately; the Nationals have the advantage for average and the Cards, for power.

Left-hander Montgomery starts for the Cardinals today. Other than a poor outing against the Braves, Montgomery has been lights out since joining the Cards, winning 5 of 6 games and allowing just 1 run total in those 5 victories. The Nationals have not faced Montgomery before, so advantage goes to the pitcher. Look for a solid 6 innings from him today.

Cory Abbot starts for the Nationals. Usually a reliever, Abbot started 4 games in August, to mixed results. His last start vs. the Cubs, a 2 run, 6 inning effort, was his best and longest appearance.

It would be hard to go against Montgomery and the Cards at home, and the odds-makers would certainly agree. St. Louis has the superior starter and a formidable bullpen at the moment. Take the Cardinals on the run line today. 9*!

It has been a long season for the Tigers, and they have continued to struggle in September. They flounder for the season as a home underdog, and have been badly outscored in their last three games. Prior to Tuesday, they had managed less than 2 runs on average over their last 5 games. The starters have been poor, with short starts and the bullpen, overworked.

The 7-3 Angels have looked much better of late, hitting for power and getting very good pitching. In addition to great length from the starters, the relief pitching has been outstanding.

Lefty Sandoval starts for the Angels on Wednesday. He has been excellent everywhere but in the win column, especially lately, with an ERA of 2.63 in his last 7 games. He has pitched well into games, and shut out the Tigers with a 4 hit, 9 inning gem in August.

Sandoval faces the Tigers’ Hutchison, who is also capable of a quality start, and has delivered lately with an ERA of 3.13 in his last 7 appearances. He doesn’t commonly offer the length that Sandoval would.

Offense might not be the name of the game on Wednesday, but if it does come, it will likely be from the Angels. Sandoval is a better bet and the Angels’ pen has been super. They rung up the Tigers to the tune of 10-0 just two games ago. Look for the Angels to win and cover on the run line.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is off an unusually poor start where he gave up five runs in Arizona. I know that Woodruff has been inconsistent on the road all season and this is Coors Field, but I still expect him to lead the Brewers to an easy win over the Rockies in Tuesday’s series opener.

The odds clearly reflect who is the better team here. Colorado is not just 22 games under .500, they’ve been outscored by 142 runs over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is desperately trying to climb back into Wild Card position. They are currently two games behind Philadelphia and San Diego. Missing the playoffs would be terrible for a team that led its division for more than half the season. 

It’s a good bet to expect Woodruff to bounce back here. Before that last start, he had not given up more than three runs since early May. 

There’s a huge edge for Milwaukee with Woodruff on the mound tonight. The Rockies are going with Chad Kuhl, who is having a bad year. Kuhl having a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts makes him an even more appealing fade.

As we saw last night, when they scored six runs in their win, getting to swing the bats at Coors Field should provide ample opportunity for the Brewers to score runs. Visiting teams are averaging 5.7 runs/game here. Christian Yelich is also now healthy and back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Colorado is without Jose Iglesias, its top hitter. 10*

I realize that it’s difficult to drum up any interest in Pittsburgh, a team that has lost four in a row as well as eight of its last ten games. But wait until you hear about the success they’ve had in the past against Mets starter Taijuan Walker!

In three career starts vs. the Pirates, Walker is winless and has a 7.94 ERA. 

Now I obviously cannot make a play solely based on that small sample size. But here’s the thing. Walker is a pitcher that you’d want to bet against anyway. His ERA post-All Star Break is 6.10. This seems to be a disturbing trend for him as he carried a 7.10 ERA in the second half of last season. 

Walker has made it through six innings just once in his last five starts. This is another problem for the Mets because their bullpen has not been good for the last month or so.

The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller as their starter for Tuesday. Keller has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts this year and has a 3.19 ERA over the previous nine. So he can keep his team in this one. Before yesterday’s game got rained out, the Mets had suffered back to back 7-1 losses - at home - to the Nationals. Grab the +1.5 in this one. The Mets are overpriced. 9* 

A pair of low-flyers open a series today. The Tigers, on the road, have won just 1 of 6 games; the Angels are better at 6-4. Neither team has hit well at all lately. The Tigers are very poor as a road underdog, but the Angels, in the rare circumstances that it occurs, are good as a home favorite.

Tigers’ lefty Alexander returned to a starting role in August with some success early in the month, but has struggled in his last two games, lasting just 7+ innings and allowing 9 runs. His ERA for the month is 5.58, and his numbers are much worse on the road.

Jose Suarez, another lefty, starts for the Angels. Suarez has had mixed success this season, but has pitched effectively in August, going 3-2, with an ERA of 2.51. He generally pitches into the 6th inning. The Angels have been getting solid pitching lately, including their bullpen, whose ERA is a sharp 2.12 in the last two weeks. The Tigers’ relievers have a collective ERA of more than double that in the same time period.

I favor Suarez and the Angels today. They showed especially well vs. the Jays and Yankees, and they seem to finally be on the upswing. Alexander’s numbers appear to be going in the wrong direction, and his last starts have been short. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Guardians have picked the wrong time to fall of a ledge, but have now lost 4 straight, and 7 of 9. While they have faced tough pitching lately, their offense numbers are very low, just  ERA of over .216/.561 OPS over the last two weeks. While they aren’t hitting they are at least tough to score against, allowing just over 3.5 runs a game /L7. The Royals, 5-5 L10, are just the reverse, hitting .272 /.826 OPS over the last two weeks, but with a struggling bullpen.

Tristan McKenzie is pitching for the Guardians. After a magnificent run, he has taken a slight step back, with an ERA of 3.18 over the last 7 games. That ERA is still more than acceptable, but pales when compared to his hot streak. McKenzie has already pitched more than 150 innings, well above his total from his first full year in 2021. He shut out the Royals when he faced them in July. McKenzie does not pitch as well on the road.

Royals’ right- hander Brady Singer had a rough 4 inning, 4 run start the last time out, but other than that he has been very solid of late with an ERA of 2.45 L7 games. Singer is a much better pitcher at home, and has had good success vs the Guardians.

I would be all over the Royals as an underdog on Monday if it weren't for the KC bullpen, ERA of over 5 in the last two weeks.  Singer can often pitch 6 or 7 innings, and the bullpen came through in the last 2 games, however I will temper my enthusiasm and take the Royals on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*

The 7-3 Diamondbacks are hot, winning their last two series and in a good position at home to finish off the Brewers today.  They are hitting well for a change, climbing to 5th in the league lately, and passing the Brewers who have cooled off in recent games.  August pitcher of the Month Zac Gallen has continued to dominate the opposition.  He is 5-0, with an ERA of 0.80 in his last 7 games, regularly pitches for 7 innings, and has been very good vs the Brewers this year.
Gallen faces reliever/occasional starter Alexander for the Brewers.  He has had mixed results this season with an road ERA of 5.29 , but pitched effectively in his one August start after a recall from Triple A.  He is unlikely to pitch for length today.
Gallen and the D-backs are in a very good spot.  They are solid as a home favorite but have one weakness; their bullpen. It failed them on Saturday, but was solid in their previous two games, and it is unlikely that Gallen will need too much support.  Take the D-backs, a favorite today, to win outright.

The Angels are healthier, and winners of 6 of their last 8 games, roughing up the Jays and Yankees, and splitting two games with the Astros. The Angels are getting good pitching, both starting and relieving. Young left-hander Tucker Davidson has 4 starts with the Angels since being traded, the last 3 of them quality starts against good opponents. Control is an issue. He has 14 base on balls in the 4 games; it caught up with him in his first start and likely will again. He doesn’t pitch for length.

Urquidy starts for the Astros. He is 3-1, 3.13 in August, usually pitching into the 7th inning. He was very good against the Angels (2 hits and 1 run over 6 innings) when he faced them earlier this year.

I am on the Astros today. While the Angels have shown improvement lately they, face a solid starter and a very good bullpen. The Astros have been adept at finishing games all season long. While Davidson has 3 good but short starts lately, there is nothing to suggest a run of successful starts. Urquidy has been consistently good in the second half. The Astros are dominant as a road favorite, and are tough on left-handers, both recently and over the season (31-11). While it may be closer than I would have expected three weeks ago, take the Astros to win game 3 of the series on the road. 9*!

The Phillies were humiliated last night, losing 13-1 to a Giants team that had previously dropped seven in a row. That was a far cry from Philadelphia’s previous result, which was an 18-2 win over Arizona. Today, I expect the road team to bounce back thanks to having Syndergaard on the hill and a better lineup.

Syndergaard is coming off a very disappointing start where he allowed five runs to the Pirates. But before that “Thor” had posted three quality starts in a row. As you would expect, the Giants weren’t doing much scoring when they were losing seven in a row. They put up just 2.5 runs per game in that stretch. There just aren’t a many hitters in that lineup swinging the bats well right now.

Jakob Junis is starting Saturday for SF and that is another problem if you’re a Giants fan. Junis gave up six runs in his start. Not only is he winless over the last seven starts, he has a 5.57 ERA since the All-Star Break. 

Last night aside, the Phillies have the stronger lineup. Look for them to beat up on Junis and a Giants’ bullpen that has struggled for most of this year. I really can’t trust the Giants to win two in a row. Not when the Phillies are in the thick of a playoff race and need to get back on track. 10*

It is do or die for the Twins as far as a playoff spot goes, and they have been on a run, winning 6 of 7, a number of those wins lopsided.  Their runs for/against is very good lately, and they are best in the league for offense over the last week.  Not so the 3-10 White Sox, who have played themselves out out of a playoff spot.  They are below .500 at home and are allowing more runs than they score at the moment.
Davis Martin starts for the Sox today.  Martin has bounced around from Triple A, and from reliever to starter this year.  He started twice in August with mixed results.  Based on past performance, a short start is likely.  Therein lies the problem.  The Sox pen has struggled when asked for multiple innings.
Twins' starter Sonny Gray is 3-1/1.91 ERA over his last 7 games, and is likely still smarting over his last appearance against the Sox, resulting in his worst start of the year.  Look for him to bounce back today.
The Twins respond well after a loss,  and need to get back in the win column for any hopes of post season.  Martin is a bit of an unknown and Gray has been terrific of late.  The Twins are also getting fine relief pitching.  Take the Twins to win on the road today.  9*!

The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar.  The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel.  Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching.  He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start.

Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts.  He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings.  He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings. 

The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers.  The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches.  Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday.  Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings.  Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start.  A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series.  Take the Rangers and Sox to go over.

The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late.

Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today.

Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May.

Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over.  9*!

Off a home loss, the Tigers are 5-3 in their last 8, surprisingly good as a home underdog, and have a very hot starter on the hill for Thursday.  Lefty Rodriguez has only been back for 2 games but has thrown an impressive 1 run over 11 innings in that time.  The Mariners don't generally do well vs left handers.

Definitely in the thick of the wild card race, the Mariners have won 6 of 8, but they aren't doing it on their offense.  At .200/.663 OPS, they are lucky that the pitching, both starters and relievers, has delivered.  Gilbert hasn't matched his first start numbers, is just 0-2 5.55 ERA in his last 7 games, but that ERA is largely a result of a two game beating by the Yankees.  He has looked just okay, giving up 2, 2, and 3 runs over 17 innings in his last 3 starts.  He does have a very good bullpen to support him.

The Tigers are the worst team in the league on offense for the season, but have hit surprisingly well lately , even climbing into the top eight over the last week.  They can't match the Mariners' bullpen pen, but the Tigers' relievers have been solid in support of Rodriguez's last two games.

The M's will have a tough time against E-Rod.  He is exactly the kind of  pitcher they struggle against; a tough left hander.  Gilbert has not been at  his best, and the Tigers' offense has been solid.  I expect the Tigers to embrace the spoiler role, possibly winning but at least keeping it close.  Take the Tigers on the run line, at + 1 1/2.

The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month.

He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7.

The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*!

The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause.  They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today.  Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances.  With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today.  The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way.  About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
Musgrove starts for the Padres.  He is 0-4, 4.42 in his last 7 starts, a considerable drop from his early season results.  He is off a very short start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs, only 2 earned.
The Giants are a demoralized team. They have lost 6 straight and are out of the play offs for all intents and purposes.  I like the total today. The number is based more on the reputation of these two pitchers and not on recent performances, especially Webb's.  Add to that, some rough performances from the Padres' bullpen (ERA 5.60 recently), and you have a recipe for an over.  Take advantage of an unexpectedly low total and jump on the over today.

The 6-4 Padres have not impressed as was expected in the second half, but are at least still in the mix for a wild card spot. A sweep of the Giants would help their cause. The Giants, who have lost 6 straight, are for all intents and purposes out of the running. They aren’t hitting, sitting 27th in the league lately and give up far too many runs to be competitive. They are just 6-17 against winning teams in the second half. Today’s starter, lefty Logan Webb has struggled in a big way, with an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, while giving up 15 runs in his last two appearances. The Padres have been feasting on left handed pitching, for the season and especially lately. It could be another ugly start for Webb.

The Padres starter, Joe Musgrove has 2 straight months with an ERA over 4.00. Unhittable early in the season, he has had a couple of good outings this month, and has pitched well against the Giants in the past. Musgrove can pitch for length, which is a good thing as the Padres’ pen has had it’s low moments lately.

The Padres, averaging .282/.801 in recent offense, need this game, and with a demoralized Giants team hitting and pitching poorly, the opportunity will be there. Take the Padres, a very good road team, to go on to win three straight.

The Royals are just 4-6, but 2 of those wins have come with Brady Singer, today’s starter on the mound. The White Sox have a worse record at home than away, are just 2-8, and while favored today, struggle as a home favorite. The Royals have scored slightly more runs than they have allowed in their last 7 games, while the Sox have scored 4.16, and allowed 5 runs per game.

Singer has really come into his own lately with an ERA of 1.79 over his last 7 games. He has beaten the Sox twice this year. His mound opponent Giolito looked good in his last outing but has been quite uneven of late. He was roughed up twice in his previous two starts. Neither bullpen has been particularly good at holding a lead. Singer will likely pitch longer, lessening the potential damage. Underdog alert: I am taking the Singer and the Royals on the road to steal this game .

The Braves lost a pair vs the Cardinals and are now 3 games off the lead in their division. The Rockies are 4-6, but only 19-42 on the road, and are playing out the season at this point. Urena, the Rockies’ starter on Tuesday, was crushed by the Rangers in his last start, but has otherwise allowed 3 runs over 5 innings on average in August. The Braves have had their way with Urena in the past.

He faces Atlanta left hander Max Fried, who shut the Rockies out over 8 innings in Denver the last time he faced them. Fried has been as good as usual lately, with an ERA of 2.54 over his last 7 appearances. He generally pitches for length.

In runs scored vs runs allowed there is no comparison lately. The Braves are 6.4 /3.6, with the Rockies nearly the reverse at 3.9/6.3. The Rockies bullpen is also significantly worse lately. The Braves are a very good home team, off a pair of losses, and with an ace on the mound. They should be highly motivated on Tuesday. Can you spell “win on the run line”? Take the Braves -1 1/2

The Phillies have lost two straight, not what they hoped for in the scheme of things. They start a pretty good lefty on Monday to get back on track. Ranger Suarez has re-found his form over his last 7 games, with an ERA of just 1.54. It is hard to argue with those numbers. For what ever reason, he is much better when pitching on the road.

The Diamondbacks have some excellent starting pitchers, but surprisingly, the aging veteran left hander Bumgarner, is not one of them. He has given up dangerously close to a run an inning lately and hasn’t had a quality start in 6 appearances. He did hold the Phillies to 3 runs over 5 innings back in June.

This is a very winnable game for the Phillies. They are very solid vs left-handed pitching, their runs scored to runs allowed is very favorable. Not so the D-backs, on either account. The Phillies are hitting well over the last two weeks at .277/.760, considerably better than Arizona.

I am on Suarez and the Phillies today. Time is running out, and the Phillies will be motivated to get back in the win column. With Bumgarner, we seem to be witnessing the tail end of a very good starter’s career. Take the youngster and the Phillies to win on Monday.

Gonsolin, after some trouble in July has bounced back in August in a big way, allowing just 2 runs over 23+ innings.  He faces another right-hander off a good start in Miami's Lopez.  Lopez has not been as effective in August.  He struggled in two of his previous 3 start and has a hefty ERA of 5.06 for the month.  Lopez struggles more often at home.

The Dodgers are not in a losing mood, winning 5 of 6 games against the Marlins recently.  They couldn't solve Alcantara, but they did get to another fine starter, Cabrera, yesterday, and they have beaten up on the Miami bullpen very thoroughly in their recent games.  it is not surprising as the Marlins' bullpen has an ERA of nearly 6 in their last 10 games.

The Dodgers have a formidable offense, the Marlins not so much. The Dodgers runs scored to runs allowed ratio is nearly double that of the Marlins.  LA is a big favorite, but a safe bet on the run line. Take the Dodgers at -1 1/2. 

The Rockies have lost 4 straight, 3 of them to the Mets. Marquez starts for them today, and he has by and large been solid in August, although he was roughed up in his last start to the Rangers. The Mets hit Marquez very well for average when they faced him in May.

The Mets start one of their aces today. Scherzer has had another fine season, and has an ERA of 2.51 ERA in August, although he has given up 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts, albeit against some top offenses. Scherzer is very fine at home this year and I think we can expect a good outing from him today.

The Rockies don’t hit well away from Coors Field, and their bullpen has not shone, so mo support for Marquez there. The Mets offense has been very solid this year and they are getting excellent relief pitching. They are a heavy favorite but I expect them to safely cover today. Take the Mets on the run line.

The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings.

The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero.

Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings.  The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games.  Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*!

The Cubs won on the road vs the Brewers, which should not be a surprise. They’ve had good success vs. The Brewers in Milwaukee this season. Smyly starts for the Cubs in game two. After a rough month of July, the veteran left-hander has pitched very well in August with a 1.43 ERA, while regularly pitching into the 6th. He tossed a1 run, 7 inning gem against the hard-hitting Cards in his last start. He has actually out pitched his more touted mound rival for the month. The Brewers’ Woodruff has an ERA of 3.38 in August and has allowed 2 home runs in each of his last 3 starts. Woodruff held the Cubs to 2 runs over 5 innings in his last start.

The Brewers are just 8-14 in August and, considering their pitching staff are giving up more runs than expected. The bullpen has not been solid with a recent ERA of over 5.00. They also struggle vs left handed pitching. A heavy favorite today, the odds do not reflect accurately today’s situation. Woodruff’s propensity for the long ball lately is worrying. Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 ½.

As one might expect, the Rays are surging back in the wild-card race, and as usual they are doing it with pitching. Until Friday night, the Rays hadn’t given up more than 3 runs in 8 straight games. The Red Sox, Saturday’s opponent, are the reverse, not having given up less than 3 runs (and often much more) in their last 10 starts.

A pair of lefties start in the 2nd game of the series. Springs, a young reliever turned starter, struggled somewhat in July but has returned to his earlier form with 3 wins and a 1.66 ERA so far in August. He has been very solid on the road this year, and usually pitches into the 6th.

He faces the veteran, Rich Hill, who has spent a lot of time on the IL this season. Since returning in early August, he has 3 starts, allowing 10 ER over 12 innings. His last start vs the Pirates was a 5 inning 2 run affair. Hill has not pitched well at home.

The Rays are 15-7 in August, the Sox, 9-13. With some injured players returning, the Rays’ bats have woken up, and have been very good at generating runs lately. Not so the Sox, scoring 4.1 and allowing 7 runs, and that bullpen has been an adventure.

The Sox squeaked out a win in a high-scoring affair on Friday night. I don’t expect a repeat on Saturday. Take the Rays to bounce back and win.

Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks.  The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August.  The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts.  He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers.

Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement.  He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start.

The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off.  The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower.  Take the Under  between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*!

The Mets lost a rare pair vs the Yankees, but bounced back vs. the Rockies last night. The Rockies are a poor team away from Coors Field, and haven’t won on the road in five games. They don’t hit well as a road team and have allowed twice as many runs as the Mets over their last seven games.

Kuhl returns for the Rockies. He pitched very poorly before a visit to the IL, but was good in a rehab start. However he pitches, don’t look for a long outing.

Bassitt starts for the Mets. Steady most of the season, he has shone lately with good length to his starts and just 2 runs allowed over 19 innings pitched in his last three starts.

Unlike the Mets, the bullpen has not been a plus for the Rockies lately. The Mets, as they have done for most of the season, are hitting well. The Mets are 4-0 vs the Rockies at home and a very big favorite today. Considering the Rockies’ road woes, I am confident the Mets will win and cover on the run line.

The very streaky Jays seem to be emerging from a poor stretch and are now 6-1 L7. Their bats have stepped up and they are getting solid pitching all around. Gausman, today’s starter has been solid lately, with three of his last four outings shutouts of very good length. Gausman has already faced the Sox 4 times this year, allowing just 4 runs over 27 innings.

The Red Sox have lost 5 of 6, including their last two vs the Jays. It is injury city for the Sox offense, missing Story and Hosmer, and with Bogaerts questionable. Kutter Crawford starts for the Sox. The right-hander has been roughed up in 2 of his last three starts, and has a 5.63 ERA over his last 7 appearances. He faced the Jays previously in July allowing 3 runs over 6 innings. Unlike the Jays’, the Red Sox’ bullpen has not been dependable, pitching to an ERA of 5.50 in their last 10 games.

The Jays have won 9 of their last 10 against the Sox. The Jays are in the hunt for a wild card spot. Gausman has delivered in crucial situations this year, and is certainly capable of another fine start. The Red Sox pitching is not dependable and the lineup is depleted. Look for yet another victory for the Jays today. Take Toronto to win.

The 5-5 Mariners have struggled lately, and have hardly been facing the cream of the MLB crop. They have managed just 11 runs scored in their last 4 games. They will face a much tougher opponent in the Guardians, a very good road team who have won 4 of 5.

Tristan McKenzie, while not quite as overwhelming of late, has only given up 4 runs over 21+ innings in his last 3 starts. He had 14 strikeouts in his last appearance.

He faces the Mariners’ lefty, Gonzales. His last start vs Oakland was solid but he has generally struggled of late with an ERA of 6.02 in his last 7 starts. The Mariners do have a good bullpen, but even it can’t compare to the Guardians’ relievers of late, with an ERA of 1.29 in their last 10 games.

The Guardians are crushing left-handed pitching lately, and Gonzales is crushable. McKenzie, still very young, is absolutely the real thing. Look for a road victory for the Guardians today.