The set-up: This is the rubber match of a three-game series and I believe that because of the level of competency on the mound between the starting pitchers tonight, that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito. 

The pitchers: Bassitt (7-5, 3.80 ERA) has posted back-to-back quality starts, but has earned a no-decision each time for his effort. Clearly Bassitt won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Giolito (12-5, 3.44) snapped a five start winless skid with a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday. 

The pick: Note that in three career starts vs. the White Sox, Bassitt has walked five and struck out 15 spanning 17 innings. Giolito earned a win over the A’s in his only start vs. them, allowing four runs over eight innings. With each of these competent hurlers fighting deep into the latter frames, look for this total to stay well below the posted number. 

Oakland A's/Chi White Sox UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he’s played a big part in the team’s success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more “miss” than “hit” for the Fish this season and I believe he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low. 

The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K’s in 121 frames).

Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a “slug-fest.” 

Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: With no room to take the foot off the gas, I believe the Braves make the most of this opportunity. Atlanta turns to red hot veteran Julio Teheran, while the home side goes with Caleb Smith.

The pitchers: Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Teheran hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since May 26th. 

Smith (7-5, 3.35) most recently allowed three runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Overall Smith has been sharp this season, but I believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is a near-perfect 12-1 (+10.8 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 8-21 (-9.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Braves.

The set-up: Jon Gray has been solid for the Rockies this year, but I still think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Eric Lauer for the most part has struggled for the Padres this year and I think he’s going to get the hook early here as well. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Padres throughout his career, but he comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off nine hits and a walk over four innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.43) is 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.488 WHIP and .364 OBA in four career starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while SD has seen the total soar over the number in 14 of 21 at home this year when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas, while the home side counters with Zac Gallen.

The pitchers: Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. 

Gallen (1-3, 2.72) started seven games for Miami before getting traded and I think he’s going to respond in his first start for his new club. Gallen would go on to allow 25 hits and post 43 strikeouts while walking 18 over 36 1/3’s innings of work for the Fish. 

The pick: Note as well that Gallen has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts. And note that while Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA in all in home situations this year, he’s just 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road. All things considered, a great price on the home side here. Lay it.

Arizona D-Backs 10* play

The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Yamamoto, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) was blasted for four runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Twins in his last outing.

Matz (6-7, 4.60) was shelled for five runs over three innings in an 8-4 loss to the Bucs in his last start. 

The pick: New York is on a mission now as it looks to complete the four-game sweep. Clearly the Marlins won’t be going down without a fight. Considering the starting pitchers and the above situational/motivational factors, I think this one flys over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

NY Mets/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think that the Reds build off yesterday’s victory and take advantage of another mismatch on the mound today as well. The visitors go with Jose Suarez, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Suarez (2-2, 5.66 ERA) comes in off a terrible start vs. the lowly Tigers on Wednesday, allowing four runs with three walks over four innings, failing to strike out a single batter. Suarez failed to complete five innings in any of his five July starts and note that he’s been terrible in all night games with a 6.08 ERA. 

DeSclafani (6-6, 4.07) is coming off a loss vs. the hard-hitting Braves on Thursday, allowing three runs with five K’s over five innings. DeSclafani has quietly turned things around of late, as over his last ten starts he’s 4-3 with a 60:13 K:BB. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-13 (-4.6 units) as a road dog of +100 to +150 this season, while Cincinnati is 8-3 this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. I LOVE DeSclafani here and I do actually believe he could/should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: Chris Paddack has had a very good rookie season for the Padres despite what happens here today. Kenta Maeda hasn’t fared as well for the Dodgers this year, but I still think he has more than enough to get the job done in this particular matchup. All things considered, I believe this to be a very fair price. 

The pitchers: Paddack (7-5, 2.78 ERA) comes in off a win vs. the Orioles on Monday, allowing just one run over five innings. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Paddack, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Maeda (7-8, 4.07) enters off a terrible start vs. the Rockies on Monday, allowing six runs over four innings. Overall though Maeda has been strong this season with a 118/38 K/W spanning 112.2 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a poor 26-32 (-8.1 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 21-8 (+8.9 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. As mentioned off the top, I think this is a great price.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers with chips on their shoulders go head-to-head in this interesting NL matchup on Saturday night and in my professional opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium. The Reds’ trot out the newly acquired Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) scuffled in his last start for his old team, giving up a career high seven runs over four innings, but terrible performances like that have truly been few and far between for the big right-hander. Note that Bauer has a 1.21 WHIP and 185:63 K:BB through 156.2 innings this year. 

Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) enters off a loss vs. the Nationals on Monday, allowing four runs over six innings. Keuchel though has been at his best at home this year, so far posting a solid 2.66 ERA to this point. 

The pick: I believe the stage is set for a “duel.” This number is high, play the under.

10* NL 2ND HALF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Reds/Braves.

The set-up: One of these pitchers has been solid all year, while the other has struggled. One of these teams is still in the playoff hunt, while the other is trending in the other direction. When you add it all up, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. The Mets go with the newly acquired Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Chris Archer. 

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 2.96 ERA) has faced Pittsburgh twice in his career, and he’s gone 0-1 with a 1.04 ERA. 

Archer (3-8, 5.58) has gone 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA over his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost each of his last four trips to the hill. 

The pick: In fact Archer faced the Mets on Sunday and he was rocked for five runs over five innings. I think we’re getting great value on Stroman in this match-up, as he’ll be out to prove himself for his new team and he’s currently in much better form than his counterpart. Lay the price.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: It’s an important game/series for both teams, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies, while the home side goes with Jose Quintana.

The pitchers: Davies (8-4, 3.56 ERA) was 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his first nine starts this year, but he’s since fallen apart, especially of late in getting blown out in back-to-back losses, most recently allowing seven runs off four hits over five innings in an 11-4 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. 

Quintana (8-7, 4.47) has one good start and one bad start vs. the Brewers this year, but overall he’s 6-4 with a 2.80 ERA vs. Milwaukee for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is just 12-16 as a road dog this year, while the Cubs are 22-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. 

The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he’s had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.) 

Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he’s struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups.

The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play

The set-up: The Twins look for the series sweep here after yesterdays victory and I think the AL team will do just that in this favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) has finally re-found his 2017 form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his past eight starts. 

Yamamoto (4-2, 3.64) was brilliant in the early going, but he’s predictably come back down to Earth, posting a horrible 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Pineda is also 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his lone start vs. the Fish. I think the Pineda comes in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: Here’s the perfect spot to the pull the trigger on the hungry underdog side in my opinion. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to ace Zach Greinke, while the home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is only three wins shy of 200 for his career. Over his last three he’s 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Clearly the vet won’t be lacking for motivation this afternoon. 

Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) enters off the worst start of his career, allowing 12 runs off 12 hits over three innings in Boston on Thursday (he has a 9.55 ERA over his last four starts.) 

The pick: Arizona picked up the 4-2 win in yesterday’s series opener and I believe the stage is set for another upset here. The Diamondbacks can’t take the foot off the gas here as they sit only three games out of the second wild-card spot. New York is trending in the opposite direction finally, having dropped six of its last nine. Great spot bet on the “hungrier” side.

Arizona DBacks 10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Dario Agrazal, while the home side counters with ace Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) also comes in off the worst start of his career. Agrazal gave up five runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday, but previous to that he’d not allowed more than two earned runs over his first five starts of his career. Expect a return to the norm here.

Castillo (9-4, 2.71) comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings vs. the Rockies on Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Castillo though, who has to be feeling confident as he’s 5-3 with a tiny 2.28 ERA at home.

The pick: After yesterday’s 11-4 Pittsburgh victory, one which ended a nine-game losing streak and which featured a wild benches-clearing brawl, I believe this contest sets up nicely as much more of a “duel.” 

Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Two pitchers who are struggling down the stretch collide in this American League contest on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Drew VerHagen, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: VerHagen (1-1, 14.40 ERA) gave up seven runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to the Mariners after getting called up last week.

Canning (3-6, 5.15) was most recently shelled for five runs off five hits while striking out two over two innings. Over his last five outings Canning has given up 18 runs combined.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five as a road dog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Look for these starters to get the hook early and play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Tigers/Angels.

The set-up: Neither pitcher instills a lot of confidence. Both teams are in the hunt for one of the wildcard spots. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Beede, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Beede (3-4, 4.85 ERA) comes in off the worst start of his season, allowing four runs, including three homers and ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Smyly (1-5, 7.69) makes his second start for his new team after giving up one run over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision in the first vs. the Pirates (also striking out eight). 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is still only 16-18 this year after three straight road games, while Philly is still 30-16 as a home favorite. I like Smyly to build off his latest performance. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Toronto is in full on rebuild mode after moving ace starter Marcus Stroman over the weekend. Toronto took two of three from the Rays, before then losing 10-9 in dramatic fashion in extra innings on Sunday afternoon. Now the Jays have to travel across the country and I think they’ll have a predictable letdown here. And that’s good news for the hungry home side and starter Brad Keller. The Jays go with Thomas Pannone. 

The pitchers: Pannone (2-4, 6.39 ERA) has made 25 appearances this year and only three of those have been actual “starts.” Over those three starts he’s lasted just 2 2/3’s, 2 1/3’s and 4 1/3’s innings. 

Keller (7-9, 3.95) enters throwing his best of the entire season, having won four straight, he most recently went seven scoreless in a 2-0 loss to the Braves on Wednesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is a poor 16-30 as a road dog already this year, while KC is 8-6 as a home favorite. Lay the price and expect a rout.

10* play on the Kansas City Royals.

The set-up: This has been a completely lop-sided series so far and I believe that the home side is going to keep the foot on the gas for one more game and on the National stage. New York goes with Domingo German, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: German (12-3, 4.03 ERA) comes in his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs off nine hits over three innings in a fortune no-decision. 

Sale (5-9, 4.00) has given up just two runs off six hits over his last 12 innings of work while also posting 22 K’s in the process (he owns a tiny 2.10 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Evil Empire.) 

The pick: The Yankees are just 2-5 in their last seven and their starting pitchers have posted a combined ERA of 16.62. And that’s bad news facing a Boston line-up which has already produced 52 hits in this series. Look for Sale to continue his recent progression with a vintage performance on Sunday Night.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: After yesterday’s back and forth “slug-fest,” I’m expecting a much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Yonny Chirinos, while the home side counters with Aaron Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-5, 3.29 ERA) has gone at least five frames in all 15 of his starts this year and he’s 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four career outings vs. the Jays.

Sanchez (3-14, 6.06) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out six and walking no one in an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Indians.

The pick: Note as well that Sanchez owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in 16 career games vs. the Rays. As mentioned off the top, after yesterday’s 10-9 Blue jays win in 12 innings, I think this one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring “under.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the under Rays/Jays.

The set-up: Two suspect hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Sampson, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Sampson (6-7, 5.19 ERA) while Sampson is 1-0 vs. the A’s in four career starts, he sports an unremarkable 5.51 ERA over that span.

Bailey (8-7, 5.42) beat the Mariners 10-2 at home in his debut for his new club, before then predictably falling back down to Earth in an 11-1 loss at Houston in his second. 

The pick: Note as well that Bailey has faced the Rangers twice already this year while with KC, losing both starts (16-2, 6-2) and posting a 10.13 ERA in the process. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Rangers/A’s.

The set-up: I think that Mike Minor and the hard-hitting visiting side are definitely worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) will likely be shipped out of Texas before the trade dead-line, so he certainly won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Leake (8-8, 4.27) went the distance vs. the Angels in his most recent outing, allowing a single hit in the top of the ninth, finishing with his second career shutout. Can anyone say letdown spot?

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minor has already defeated Leake the Mariners twice this year (Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in eight career starts vs. Texas.) I like Minor to complete the “hat-trick” here, so lay the price.

Texas Rangers 10* play

The set-up: With their 9-4 win over the Rays on Monday, Boston is now one game behind Tampa for second place in the AL East. The visitors have to be feeling confident that they can build off that victory by handing the ball to ace Chris Sale today. The home side counters with Yonny Chirinos. 

The pitchers: Sale (4-9, 4.05 ERA) comes in off perhaps his best start of the year, going six shutout innings vs. the Jays on Thursday, striking out 12. 

Chirinos (8-5, 3.29) is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA in five appearances vs. the Red Sox lifetime. 

The pick: Note as well that Sale is 9-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 116 1/3’s innings opposed vs. the Rays lifetime, giving up 78 hits and striking out 169. And take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 77-41 (+11.7 units) the L2 years as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while Tampa Bay is just 8-10 (-4.2 units) this year after a loss by four runs or less. I absolutely believe the Sale and the surging visiting side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hard-hitting visiting underdog. The Rangers turn to Adrian Sampson, while the Mariners go with Marco Gonzales. This is the opener of a three-game set and after seven straight losses, I look for the Rangers to get untracked tonight. 

The pitchers: Sampson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) has been used mainly in relief this year, but he comes in confident as he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M’s. 

Gonzales (10-8, 4.48) is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA in three appearances vs. the Rangers this season. 

The pick: The good news for Texas is that Seattle’s struggles are even worse, as it enters having lost eight of its last nine. Note that Texas is already 6-2 this year after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Seattle is a poor 31-42 vs. right-handed starters this season. 

Texas Rangers

10* play

The set-up: Yesterday’s total blasted well past the posted number, but all signs point to more of a “duel” here in my opinion. The home side turns to Walker Buehler to try and complete the three-game sweep of the impotent Fish, while the visitors counter with rookie Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Yamomoto (4-0, 1.59 ERA) has not conceded more than two earned runs in any of his outing since he debuted in mid June.

Buehler (8-1, 3.44) has 120 K’s over 110 innings this year and he owns a 3.60 ERA over two career starts vs. Miami. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this season as an underdog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 26 of 42 vs. clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* TOTAL DOMINATION under.

The set-up: Oakland managed a late win on Saturday afternoon, but I think that Minnesota will bounce back in the finale in front of the home town crowd. The visitors go with Daniel Mengden to toe the rubber, while the home side goes with Michael Pineda. 

The pitchers: Mengden (5-1, 4.21 ERA) has been sharp of late, but he’s struggled in his only start vs. the Twins by posting a 7.94 ERA. 

Pineda (6-5, 4.38) has allowed more than three runs just once time over his 12 starts this year. Pineda has dominated the A’s throughout his career, going 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA over six career starts. 

The pick: After last night’s dramatic come from behind victory, I think the A’s have a predictable letdown here. Lay it.

10* ROCK-STAR Minnesota

The set-up: Gio Gonzalez has been sharp in his limited time for the Brewers, but I think he’ll struggle vs. Zack Greinke and in this difficult road venue. 

The pitchers: Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA) will make his first start in over eight weeks and I think he’s being thrown to the wolves. 

Greinke (10-4, 2.95) struggled in his first start back from the break, but overall he’s been solid once again this season, especially at home where he’s 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

The pick: Note that the D-Backs have now scored 39 runs over their past four games and I expect that offensive trend to continue here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Arizona D-Backs

10* play

The set-up: Jacob deGrom has been his usual dominant self for the Mets of late, but Tyler Beede has for the most part struggled for the Giants this season. These are two hungry teams and I believe this total will sneak over this low number once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his past ten starts, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in the process.

Beede (3-3, 5.44) comes in off a strong performance vs. the Brewers on Sunday, allowing three runs off seven hits over seven innings, but as mentioned off the top, overall he’s struggled this year, especially at home where he’s 0-1 with a poor 5.11 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has seen the total go over the number in ten of 13 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher already, while San Francisco has seen the total go over in 16 of 22 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC on the over Mets/Giants.

The set-up: A couple of hungry veteran hurlers square off against each other in the final game on Thursay night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the home side counters with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts vs. San Francisco. 

Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86) is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts and he’s never lost to the Mets in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA over eight times opposed, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in New York.

The pick: Both teams come in off double-digit victories in their previous outings, with the Mets beating Minnesota 14-4 and the Giants getting the better of Colorado 11-8. The opener of this one though has duel written all over it my opinion. This number is high, play the under. 

9* PITCHERS DUEL

The set-up: Yesterday’s game was rained out so the team’s will play a double-header today. This is a play on the Yankees in the first game. New York has won 11 of its last 16 games. That’s a tall order for Tampa starter Yonny Chirinos to deal with this afternoon. The home side goes with Domingo German. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-4, 3.11 ERA) has been solid in a starters role, going 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA over nine straight appearances. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

German (11-2, 3.40) is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.75 ERA over two starts since returning from a hip injury, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Jays on Friday. 

The pick: New York leads the season series 10-5 and I look for the home side to extend that record here in the early game. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: The Padres fell 12-7 last night, but I think they’ll bounce back in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to dynamic rookie Chris Paddack, while the Fish go with the struggling Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 2.84 ERA) is 4-3 with a 2.99 ERA in all “night” games this season. 

Richards (3-10, 4.18) comes in on the heels of a five-game losing streak. 

The pick: San Diego is desperate here as it looks to avoid a five-game losing streak. Note as well that the Padres are 12-7 (+8.9 units) in their last 19 after allowing 12 runs or more in their previous contest, while the Fish are still just 5-18 (-10.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay it.

SD

The set-up: Lance Lynn leads the league in wins this year and I think he’ll keep the good times rolling in this favorable interleague matchup in front of the home town crowd. The visitors counter with Alex Young.

The pitchers: Young (2-0, 0.68 ERA) has looked great in his limited time, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie, who makes his third career start here. 

Lynn (12-4, 3.69) has won five straight starts, including going eight scoreless in a victory over the Rays on June 28th. Lynn has dominated the D-Backs throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. them. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 4-9 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more, while Texas is 14-6 (+5.9 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. I love Lynn in this spot and will lay the price with confidence. 

10*

The set-up: LA is 62-23 this year after its 7-4 win over the Red Sox last night. Philadelphia beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday. Zach Eflin gets the call for the home side, while LA hands the ball to Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: Kershaw (7-2, 3.09 ERA) earned a no-decision in his last start, giving up two runs over seven innings vs. the Padres. In 14 regular season starts vs. the Phillies he owns a tiny 2.83 ERA. 

Eflin (7-8, 3.78) got rocked for seven runs over three innings in a 12-6 loss to the Braves in his last start. He’s a poor 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA in four career match ups vs. the Dodgers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 40-21 already this year following a victory, while Philadelphia is just 10-14 (-6.5 units) vs. southpaws. Look for Kershaw to easily out duel his erratic counterpart.

10* LA DODGERS. 

The set-up: Neither of these veteran starters can be happy with how they’ve performed this year. Each side comes out rested after the break and I think that “home field” can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup once it’s all said and done. The Pirates hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the Cubs go with Yu Darvish.

The pitchers: Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) has only pitched beyond six innings twice this year. 

Darvish (2-4, 5.01) won’t be lacking for motivation here as he’s 0-6 in his career at Wrigley Field. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Pittsburgh is a poor 10-13 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Chicago is a “lights out” 18-6 (+10.8 units) this year at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Expect the Cubs to continue their dominance in this role to open the second half.

10* COACH’S CORNER Cubs

The set-up: Chase Anderson of the Brewers squares off against Joe Musgrove of the Pirates in the final game before the Mid-Summer Classic. Both have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I believe each will get chased early and because of that, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 16 career outings vs. Pittsburgh. 

Musgrove (6-7, 4.13) is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers. 

The pick: Take it for what  you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 29 of its last 49 vs. right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail over in 30 of 49 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Both teams are hungry for the series victory and everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” Play the over. 

Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Diego improved to 1-1 in this series after last night’s 3-2 win, but I like LA to bounce back in the second to last game before the Mid Summer Classic. The visitors are going with rookie Chris Paddack on the hill, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been sharp of late, allowing three runs over his last 11 innings of work. Paddack’s lone start vs. the Dodgers was a “dud” though, allowing six runs over four innings on May 14th. 

Maeda (7-4, 3.78) gave up two earned runs or less in four of five June starts. He’s 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Padres.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is still just 9-12 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while LA is still 37-10 as a home favorite. I think Paddack struggles again vs. this talented line-up and in this difficult road venue. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Mets 7-2 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Arrieta (8-6, 4.43 ERA) won his second straight start on Sunday, giving up four runs over six innings to beat the Marlins 13-6. 

Syndergaard (5-4, 4.56) returned from the IL last weekend and he received a no-decision after allowing three runs over five innings vs. the Braves.

The pick: New York has gone 13-23 since May 27th to fall out of contention and its relievers have posted an atrocious 8.01 ERA in that span. Look for Philadelphia to take advantage again.

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated in the opener of this series. Colorado comes to town off a 2-4 home stand. Arizona has lost eight straight in this series and would clearly love nothing more than to break that string of futility. The hungry visiting side sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill, while the home side counters with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Senzatela (7-5, 4.83 ERA) is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Arizona spanning 42 innings of work. 

Greinke (5-3, 2.90) is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Colorado this year, allowing 21 hits and striking out 12 over 19 frames of work. 

The pick: Take it or what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over in 27 of 48 vs. right-handed starters this season and in 22 of 36 vs. the division, while Arizona has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. I think the writing is on the wall and a high-scoring “slug-fest” is in the cards. 

Colorado Rockies/Arizona DBacks OVER

10* play

The set-up: The White Sox swept a double-header yesterday. The visitors turn to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Robin Lopez in the series finale Thursday afternoon. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-6, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out 11. So far he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start vs. the White Sox this year. 

Lopez (4-7, 6.12) is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts vs. Detroit. Note that Lopez has been particularly effective vs. the Tigers this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 over 12 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go under the number in all three games it’s played in this year on the road when the money line is between -100 and -150, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in 21 of 34 vs. the division. I think these two battle deep and this one stays well below the posted number.

Detroit Tigers/Chi. White Sox UNDER

10* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Indians last night and I think they carry that momentum over here in another favorable matchup. Cleveland comes in on top form, as it’s now 18-9 since June 1st. Mike Clevinger gets the call for the visitors and Danny Duffy goes for the home side.

The pitchers: Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) gave up seven earned runs over 1 2/3’s innings vs. Baltimore in his last start. It was his first start back from a lengthy stint on the DL, so I’m not going to read too much into one shaky outing. A date vs. the Royals is just what the doctor ordered as well for Clevinger, as note that he’s 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in ten appearances vs. them.

Duffy (3-4, 4.43) is 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is a sharp 16-10 (+3 units) vs. southpaws this year, while KC is a terrible 7-13 (-2.4 units) at home this season as an underdog of +125 or more. I like Clevinger to get back on track with a much better effort and for the Indians to continue their surge at the plate. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland comes in focused to this series after losing two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the sheer talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying this larger road price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the home side counter with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Bauer (6-6, 3.55 ERA) is 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Royals. 

Junis (4-7, 5.23) took the loss in Cleveland last week, getting shelled for four runs off nine hits, including two home runs (Junis is now 2-3 with a 5.89 ERA in eight appearances lifetime vs. Cleveland.) 

The pick: I’m giving a big nod to the Tribe at the plate and a big nod to the Indians on the mound and with those two crucial factors clearly working in their favor, I expect them to make the most of this favorable spot. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: It’s Canada Day and I think the home side is going to ride the wave of emotion to a solid victory North of the border this afternoon. The Royals overcame a 5-1 hole to win 7-6 yesterday, but I expect the Jays to respond here. The visitors hand the ball to Glenn Sparkman, while the home side goes with Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Sparkman (2-3, 4.07 ERA) gave up three home runs and five runs in all over five innings in a loss to the Indians in his last start. 

Richard (0-4, 6.89) will look to get off the schneid vs. a team he’s had plenty of success against in the past, going 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Royals. 

The pick: Before Sunday’s win the Royals had lost five in a row at the Rogers Centre. Expect that trend to continue here vs. the hungry home side. All things considered, a very fair price in my opinion. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Houston won 2-1 on Friday and 6-5 on Saturday. Suffice it to say I’m expecting a much more decisive victory in the finale, as Houston keeps the foot on the gas after a scuffling stretch. The home side goes with Gerrit Cole, while the visitors go with Marco Gonzales.

The pitchers: Cole (7-5, 3.42 ERA) is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over five June starts and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA over six career outings vs. the M’s, including a 3-2 win on April 14th in which he posted 11 strikeouts. 

Gonzales (9-6, 4.34) has been hit or miss all year, looking unbelievable for stretches and downright terrible in others. Note that he’s 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 11-20 (-8.8 units) this year in all “day” games, while Houston is 6-1 at home as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a lop-sided destruction from start to finish.

Houston Astros -1.5

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to the steady Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with the erratic Drew Pomeranz. I feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this price on the road favorite.

The pitchers: Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has never lost in San Fran, going 5-0 with a 1.37 ERA (overall he’s 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Giants.) 

Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in ten career games vs. Arizona.

The pick: The Giants earned a victory in the series opener last night, but they’re still just 1-5 in this series at home this season. Greinke owns a .289 batting average vs. the Giants as well. This one has “blowout” written all over it - lay it!

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: Philadelphia comes in off a four-game sweep of the Mets and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Phillies won’t be taking anything for granted here either after the Marlins swept them in a three-game series earlier in the month. Philadelphia hands the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Elieser Hernandez.

The pitchers: Velasquez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) has made two straight appearances as a starter, including last weekend when he faced Miami, giving up just one run over five frames of work. 

Hernandez (0-2, 4.34) has gone 0-7 with a 4.54 ERA in nine starts between 2018 and 2019. 

The pick: Velasquez owns a 2.90 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Marlins and a 1.64 ERA in two starts at Miami. Hernandez has a 5.40 ERA in three games vs. Philadelphia. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the visitors.

10* Phillies

The set-up: Both teams are playing well right now, but I think that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Oakland comes in off two game sweep of St. Louis, while the Angels took two games from the Reds. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Tanner Anderson, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over three innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa on Friday. He’s been unremarkable over three starts this year.

Canning (2-4, 3.88) faces the A’s for a third time this month, going six frames in both outings so far (gave up one run on May 29th, before allowing four runs earlier this month.) 

The pick: I think the A’s take a step back in the opener of this series and in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF WEEK ANGELS

The set-up: Suffice it to say, after last night’s meltdown in the ninth inning, I look for the Tribe to bounce back in this favorable spot on Wednesday afternoon. Previous to last night’s victory, the Royals had lost seven straight in this series. The home side hands the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the visitors go with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Junis (4-6, 5.18 ERA) has looked better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign, but when he faced the Indians on April 14th he was shelled for five runs off eight hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA in seven career match ups with the Indians.) 

Bauer (5-6, 3.69) comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Tigers on Friday, but he owns a sharp 3.01 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 8-18 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland is 12-5 as a home fav in the -150 to -200 range. I’m laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price and expecting a decisive rout from start to finish.

Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

10* play

The set-up: The Cards are 4-3 with two games to go on their home stand and they hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, while the A’s counter with Chris Bassitt.

The pitchers: Bassitt (4-3, 3.64 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up two runs over 5 2/3’s innings in a win over the lowly Orioles last time out. Previous to that though he’d posted a 5.88 ERA over six outings.

Flaherty (4-4, 4.24) gave up three runs over seven innings while striking out eight and walking one in an unfortunate loss to Miami last time out. 

The pick: Oakland is just 3-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is 21-10 in its last 31 following a loss. Lay the price.

10* CARDS.

The set-up: Both of these teams got out to blistering starts to the 2019 season, but each comes in having floundered of late. Both Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Blake Snell of the Rays were crushed in their last starts, but I still give the nod to Gibson in front of the home town crowd today. 

The pitchers: Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) gave up six runs and posted one out over one inning of work in a loss to the Yankees last time out. 

Gibson (7-4, 4.18) gave up six runs over 4 1/3’s innings in a 9-4 loss to Boston last time out. 

The pick: Note that Tampa was outscored 33-15 in the first six games of its road trip before busting out for 15 hits on Sunday. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into a single decent performance at the plate for the struggling Rays. The Twins have been scuffling of late, but they still have an eight-game lead over the Tribe. Look for Gibson to get back on track in friendly confines.

10* Twins.

The set-up: Boston lost two of three to the Jays over the weekend, meaning it won’t be taking anything for granted here vs. the lowly White Sox. I think the home side comes in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. The White Sox go with Lucas Giolto, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox, earning a no-decision vs. Boston on May 2nd, allowing three runs off seven hits over five frames.

Rodriguez (8-4, 4.71) leads the teams in win after giving up four runs with nine K’s in a win over the Twins on Wednesday. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are still a terrible 11-17 this year vs. clubs with winning records, while the Red Sox are 24-12 vs. teams with losing records. Giolito is starting to show signs of slowing down after his torrid start, which doesn’t bode well facing this now hungry and focused Boston team. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-2 win over ex-teammate Albert Pujols and the visiting Angels and I think they’ll build off that victory in the finale of this interleague series. So far the Angels have been shutdown in this series by the Cards and I expect that trend to continue. LA goes with Tyler Skaggs, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Skaggs (6-6, 4.61 ERA) has looked much better of late and he most recently gave up one run over seven innings to the Jays in his last outing. 

Mikolas (5-7, 4.48) won’t be lacking for motivation here after his terrible start to the 2019 campaign. Mikolas though comes in off his best start of the year, going six shutout innings in a 5-0 win over the Marlins on Monday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 5-9 (-3.9 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest, while St. Louis is now a remarkable 13-3 (+8.8 units) this year at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. This is a difficult interleague matchup for LA and I think St. Louis delivers the clean sweep on National TV. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH

The set-up: The Orioles losing streak extended to ten games in last night’s 10-9 setback and I believe that streak of futility continues here. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner, while the home side counters with Gerson Bautista, who will start the first inning before making way for veteran Tommy Milone. 

The pitchers: Cashner (6-3, 4.48 ERA) is just 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA in 11 outings vs. the Mariners. 

Bautista (0-1, 9.00) will quickly make way for Milone (2-1, 2.23) in six career appearances vs. Baltimore. 

The pick: Baltimore is still without the services of top slugger Trey Mancini, who suffered an elbow injury on Wednesday. That doesn’t bode well facing Milone, who has given up just five runs over his last 18 innings of work, striking out 13 and walking only one in that span. I think Seattle’s approach with Bautista as an opener, followed by the red hot Milone will be too much for the struggling visiting side to overcome today. Lay the price.

Seattle Mariners

10* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has been decent of late for the Indians, but Matt Boyd has taken a step back tho season after a strong 2018. For a number of different reasons, I think this number is too low. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for five runs over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the impotent Royals.

Bauer (5-6, 3.41) comes in off his first complete-game shutout of his career over these very Tigers last Sunday. Clearly the visitors will be out to atone for that setback (note that Bauer hadn’t been credited with a win before that since April 30th.) Note as well that Bauer owns a 5.17 ERA lifetime vs. the Tigers in 18 career appearances still. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC over Tigers/Indians

The set-up: New York is rolling and it’ll be out to avenge itself after getting swept by the Astros in April. The Yanks come in having won five straight, while Houston enters on the other end of the spectrum with four straight losses, having scored just seven runs during the stretch of futility. Framber Valdez gets the nod for the visitors, while Chad Green gets the call on the mound for the home side. 

The pitchers: Valdez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his third start of the season today and while he’s been decent to this point, I think he’s going to be in over his head here in this difficult road venue.

Green (1-2, 7.54) owns a 3.53 ERA in the opener role.

The pick: I think these starters are evenly matched, but note that Houston is just 1-4 this year as an underdog, while New York is 12-2 at home this season as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Lay the price.

10* PLAY

The set-up: Lucas Giolito has been superb for the White Sox this year, but all good things must come to an end. The Cubs’ Jon Lester has has an up and down start to 2019, but I think he’ll settle down here in front of the home town crowd. 

The pitchers: Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) has been on absolute fire this year and its difficult to say anything negative about him at all. I simply feel that his early numbers are unsustainable and regression is imminent. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.84 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Lester (5-5, 4.08) has struggled of late, but he’ll look to bounce back against a team he’s had plenty of success against, going 9-6 with a 3.99 ERA over 17 career games vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are just 5-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year, while the Cubs are 21-9 as a home favorite. Look for The Friendly Confines to ruin Giolito’s hot run. Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Giancarlo Stanton is finally being activated from the IL for the Yanks in the opener of this three-game series and I believe the slugger will pay immediate dividends for the Yanks. Edwin Encarnacion was 0 for 4 for New York yesterday, but with that awkward debut out of the way, he should settle down here as well. The Evil Empire is getting healthier and I expect that momentum to translate into a solid victory tonight. The home side hands the ball to the surging JA Happ, while the visitors counter with Ryne Stanek. 

The pitchers: Stanek (0-1, 2.45 ERA) is being forced into a starters roll out of necessity, a position in which he’s been pretty pedestrian in (note that he has a 4.60 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Yanks.) 

Happ (6-3, 4.66) is starting on four days rest here as he tries to post a sixth straight win, going 5-0 with a 4.38 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but despite their early great play the Rays are still a money-burning 12-12 (-2.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. Conversely note that New York is 17-9 (+8.3 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Braves are surging right now and I believe that trend carries over for at least one more game. Atlanta is 6-1 during its current home stand. Overall the Braves have won nine of their last ten, including a 15-1 blowout vs. the Phillies on Sunday. New York’s moving in the opposite direction, most recently dropping three of four to the Cards over the weekend, going 5-5 in its last ten. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with rookie Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off ten hits over 4 2/3’s innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start. 

Soroka (7-1, 1.92) enters off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs over five innings to the Pirates, but outings like that have truly been few and far between this season and note that he’s already 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3’s innings vs. the Mets this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-9 (-7.6 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Atlanta is 14-6 (+4 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher. Lay the price with confidence. 

Atlanta Braves (vs. NY Mets)

10* play

The set-up: After a hot 13-2 start, Seattle has been one of the worst teams in the entire league ever since. Marco Gonzales (6-6, 4.77 ERA) opened the season 5-0 with a 2.80 ERA for the M’s, before losing his next six decisions. Gonzalez finally got off the schneid with a decent effort vs. the Angels last time out, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.57) gets the nod for the home side and he’s given up three runs or less in eight of his nine outings this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records and a poor 3-13 in its last 16 road games vs. right-handed starters, while the A’s are a sharp 9-3 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series. I’m banking on Bassitt getting the better of the “on again, off again” Gonzales and for the A’s to take full advantage. Lay the price.

*10*

The set-up: The Marlins go with right-hander Jordan Yamamoto who makes his MLB debut tonight, while the visitors go with the struggling Miles Mikolas. Miami will be desperate to break out of its funk here after losing six straight and scoring just ten runs in that span. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto was 3-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts in Double A.

Mikolas (4-6, 4.54) has had plenty of success vs. the Fish in the past, but that was then and this is now. Mikolas is just 1-3 with a 7.52 ERA on the road this year and he’s allowed 13 homers in 13 starts after allowing just 16 in total last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing three runs of press in two straight games, while Miami has seen the total go over in six of eight this season in trying to revenge two straight home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low.

STL Cards/Miami Marlins OVER

10* play

The set-up: The sub-way series was postponed a day due to inclement weather. Now the Mets and Yanks will play a double-header, with Zack Wheeler and Masahiro Tanaka getting the call in Game 1 and then Jason Vargas and James Paxton going in the second. This is a play on the “over” in Game 2. The Mets come into the day having won 12 of their last 20. The Yanks won’t be lacking for motivation after going 2-5 in their last seven. 

The pitchers: Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) has been exceptional of late, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. Note as well that he’s a terrible 0-7 with a 6.84 ERA in 11 appearances vs. the Yankees. 

Paxton (3-2, 2.11) is making his third start since coming off the IL after missing three weeks with a knee injury. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in three of four interleague games already, while the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a slugfest in the night game.

NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The hard-hitting visiting side sends perhaps the World’s best pitcher right now to the mound for this one, as the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin Ryu gets ready to square off against rookie right-hander Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Ryu (9-1, 1.35 ERA) has done well in this interleague matchup throughout his career going by going 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three career starts vs. them. Note that since his lone loss Ryu has gone 7-0 with a 0.75 ERA. 

Canning (2-2, 3.52) takes the mound for a team which has lost six of its past ten. Canning comes off a decent outing, giving up our runs over six innings vs. the A’s, striking out eight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are already 12-6 (+3.5 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while the Angels are just 8-15 this season as an underdog. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work.

Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs.

10* RL BEST IN SHOW

The set-up: Washington will be eager to return to form here. It came to San Diego on a 9-2 run, but the Padres have rallied in the late innings over the first two games of this series, including a 5-4 walk off win last night. Enough is enough! With their “ace” Max Scherzer going tonight, I think the visitors bounce back in Game 3. The home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) has a 3-2, 2.37 ERA record over ten starts vs. the Padres. 

Lauer (5-4, 4.18) has been sharp of late and he’s had decent success vs. the Nationals throughout his career, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 4-1 (+3 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight, while San Diego is still just 12-29 (-12 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Scherzer and the focused Nationals to find a way to get the job done here. 

Washington Nationals

10* play

The set-up: The Cardinals sit 2.5 games back of the Cubs to open this series. These teams met a week ago in St. Louis and the Cardinals managed to sweep all three games. It’s “payback” time now that the Cubs are at Wrigley though. The home side goes with Cole Hamels, who took a hard-luck loss vs. St. Louis last week by allowing one unearned run and two hits over seven innings, while the visitors counter with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Mikolas (4-5, 4.41) has done well against the Cubs throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in seven career appearances. 

Hamels (4-3, 3.62) is 4-6 with a sharp 2.48 ERA in 15 career games vs. St. Louis. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a three-game sweep vs. a division opponent, while St. Louis is just 10-15 (-5.3 units) on the road this season. I like Chicago to avenge last week’s sweep in St. Louis by taking Game 1 easily. Lay the price.

10* CUBS

The set-up: Enough is enough! After starting 10-31, the Marlins are now 13-5 after taking the first two games of this series by a combined score of 24-3 (includes 16-0 win on Tuesday.) I think Caleb Smith and the visiting side finally come back down to Earth on Thursday afternoon though and I look for the hungry Freddy Peralta to take advantage. 

The pitchers: Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA) has been in a “free fall” over the last month, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his past four starts, after starting 13-5 with a 1.99 ERA. 

Peralta (2-2, 5.68) for whatever reason has “feasted” in the month of June, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings, allowing only three hits to go along with a sharp 17-1 strikeout to walk ratio (is 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA in all other months combined.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Miami is just 4-11 (-4.9 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Milwaukee is 71-55 (+20.3 units) the L2 years after having lost two of its last three games. I think the revenge minded and thoroughly humbled home side lays everything on the line this afternoon and finds a way to salvage the finale. Lay the price.

10* Milwaukee

The set-up: Detroit managed to pull of the major upset in Game 1 of this three game series last night, but I think an immediate return to mediocrity is in store on Wednesday. The revenge-minded visiting side hands the ball to Charlie Morton, while the home side counters with Spencer Turnbull. 

The pitchers: Morton (6-0, 2.54 ERA) has won three of his past four starts for his team. Most recently he held the hard-hitting Twins to two runs over seven innings while also striking out six.

Turnbull (3-4, 2.84) comes in off a win over the Braves on Friday, giving up two runs over six innings.

The pick: Note that Tampa is still 18-8 on the road this year and 21-9 in all “night” games. And note the Detroit is still only 3-11 as a home underdog and just 9-17 at home overall. Previous to yesterday’s win the Tigers had lost ten straight at home. Look for Tampa to get back on track after yesterday’s setback.

TB Rays

10* play

BONUS:

The set-up: Momentum. In sports it can be a very real, almost tangible thing. Even without Kevin Durant and Kevin Mooney, I think the Warriors are going to ride the wave of emotion at home and come out “guns a blazing” in the first half of Game 3. Toronto dominated in Game 1 and it appeared as if it would roll to another victory in Game 2, but then the second half started. Golden State made some big adjustments and it would go on to easily destroy the Raptors in the second half. And now I think that the defending champs carry that momentum over at home (at least in the first half!) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight playoff games as an underdog in the five to 10.5 points range, while Golden State is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 playoff games as a favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and expect the home side to roll to a SU victory in the first half.

Golden State Warriors (1st Half Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: After playing 27 games in 27 days, the Pirates had a day off yesterday. I think Pittsburgh stumbles in its first game back in what I feel is an even bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with Max Fried, while the home side counters with Steven Brault. 

The pitchers: Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) has made 11 starts this year and he’s thrown seven quality efforts in that span. 

Brault (2-1, 5.87) is being forced into the starting rotation out of necessity. Over 19 career big league starts he’s 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pirates are just 2-6 in their last eight home games following a day off. I like Fried to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay it.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: There was an over night pitching change for the Angels in this one, which makes my play on Chicago even stronger in my opinion. The visitor hand the ball to Cam Bedrosian, while the home side counters with Jon Lester (note that this is a make-up game from a postponed contest from April.

The pitchers: Bedrosian (2-3, 3.08 ERA) comes out of the bullpen to make this difficult spot start; note that he’s 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road.

Lester (3-4, 3.59) opened the year on fire, but he’ll be looking to rebound after allowing a season-high seven earned runs over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Tuesday. 

The pick: After winning two straight, I think the Angels take a step back in this NL format/ballpark. And after getting swept in three straight in St. Louis over the weekend, I look for the home side (and Lester) to come in extremely focused. Everything points to a rout in my opinion. 

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Boston will be desperate to avoid the three-game series sweep. New York continues to get production at the plate despite several key injuries to its sluggers. While David Price has historically struggled vs. New York, he comes into this contest “firing on all cylinders” and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. CC Sabathia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Boston and I think the veteran will also have a big night Sunday.

The pitchers: Price (2-2 2.83 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. 

Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. the Red Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 20 this year vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten vs. left-handed starters. I think this number is slightly high.

Red Sox/Yanks under

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers who have seen better days go head to head in this one and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to easily eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Lance Lynn. 

The pitchers: Decent starts have been few and far between for Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) over the last couple of years, who finished 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season. It’s difficult to point out any positives about Bailey as he continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road. 

Lynn (6-4, 4.66) like his count part has looked decent one game, only to struggle in the next. Note that he has a terrible 6.01 ERA at home so far this year. 

The pick: Lynn’s been decent over the last month, including vs. the Royals, but overall he still owns a rather poor 5.01 ERA over eight career starts vs. them. The Rangers evened this series with yesterday’s lower-scoring 6-2 win, so with each team pressing for the series victory, I expect these volatile starters to get the hook early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* KC/Tex Over

The set-up: Boston’s been playing a lot better after a slow start, but it has a lot of work to do to catch up to the surging Yankees. Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale, like his team, also started slow, but he’s sure turned things around over the last three weeks. I believe that momentum carries over here in this important early division battle. The home side goes with the volatile JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.23 ERA over his last five starts and he’s posted a 2.44 ERA over his last seven starts. Sale was roughed up by the Yanks in early April, so he’ll be extra motivated here as well to atone for that “brain fart.” Also note that he’s 6-5 with a 1.87 ERA over 18 career regular season appearances vs. New York.

Happ (4-3, 5.09) is 3-0 with a sub-par 5.40 ERA over his last three starts. Happ’s enjoyed success vs. the Red Sox in the past, but I think his inconsistent 2019 season continues vs. this hungry Red Sox side. 

The pick: I like Sale to continue his progression and I’m basing this pick primarily on that happening. 

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. St. Louis is struggling with consistency at the plate and it’s just 7-17 in the month of May, which doesn’t bode well for Genesis Cabrera, making his major league debut for the visitors today. Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola though comes into this one on top form after a slow start and I look for him to deliver the goods in this favorable spot as well.

The pitchers: Cabrera (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis: "The reports we've gotten from Memphis have been very positive," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt assessed last night. "We trust our player development group and our front office and that was the recommendation and we follow it."

Nola (5-0, 4.53) has a 2.76 ERA over his last six starts, striking out 18 over his last 11 1/3’s frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is now just 9-13 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 18-10 at home. 

Philadelphia Phillies

10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this interleague matchup on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels, while the home side counters with Gerritt Cole. 

The pitchers: Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 K’s over his last 16 innings of work. 

Cole (4-5, 4.11) hasn’t been at his best over the last weeks, but he still leads the majors in strikeouts with 100 and in strikeout rate at 37.7 percent. He is also 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

The pick: Many Astros’ sluggers are on the IL right now, including Aledmys Diaz, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Max Stassi. I think the stage is set for these starters to “steal the show.” This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Yanks took both games of yesterday’s double-header, continuing a trend of beating up on “lesser” competition, after having already swept at Baltimore. New York is the hottest hitting team in baseball and I don’t see anything changing on Sunday in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: German (9-1, 2.60 ERA) is mowing through the competition this year and he’s been particularly effective in this position all season, going 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” games.

Duffy (3-1, 3.45) has been decent early after struggling to a 8-12, 4.88 ERA record last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is a perfect 9-0 this year already as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while KC is just 5-13 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Diamondbacks broke out of their slump in a big way last night by destroying the Giants 18-2. Clearly the last thing Arizona can do is sit back and relax though as it’ll now look to carry that momentum over into another favorable matchup. The Giants can’t be happy after getting shellacked either. Two confirmed “gas cans” go head to head in this one and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, while the home side counters with Andrew Suarez. 

The pitchers: Clarke (0-1, 2.00 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. This will be his second start of his career. 

Suarez (0-1, 4.50) gave up three runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. This is his second start of the season as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over in 13 of 20 vs. the division already this season, while San Fran has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this year after a loss by four runs or more. This number is much to low in my opinion.

Arizona Dbacks/San Francisco Giants OVER

10* play

The set-up: I think this one highly favors the home side. The Reds send the volatile Anthony DeSclafani to the hill, while the Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks. 

The pitchers: DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA) gave up three home runs and lasted only four inning for a second consecutive start in a loss to the Dodgers in his last outing. Over his previous two starts DeSclafani has now been shelled for eight runs off 14 hits, including four dingers.

Hendricks (4-4, 3.21) has gone 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last 42 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is still just 7-13 as a road dog this year, while Chicago is 15-6 as a home favorite. I think Hendricks is the correct call. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs.

10*

The set-up: Both teams are struggling offensively, but New York now has an opportunity to sweep this four game series after its 6-1 win last night, scoring all six runs in the eighth inning. Washington is now 11 games under .500. Washington last won a game when tonight’s starter Stephen Strasburg was last on the hill, while the home side counters with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA) gave up two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last weekend. Note that he’s pitched at least six frames in nine of his ten trips to the mound this season.

Matz (3-3, 3.96) returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins on Saturday. While just 1-5 vs. the Nats in 11 career starts, Matz owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA. 

The pick: Note as well that Strasburg is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 career starts vs. New York. The Nationals’ bullpen has been atrocious, but I expect these competent starters to battle deep. This number is high.

Washington Nationals/NY Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: After letting the Giants rally for three runs in the bottom of ninth last night, I think the Braves bounce back here. And after rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and steal last night’s contest, I believe the home side has a predictable letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Fried (6-2, 2.86 ERA) enters off six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on Friday and he’s won each of his past two trips to the hill and three of his last four overall. 

Samardzija (2-2, 3.69) gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a win no decision to the Reds on Sunday (three solo home runs.) It was his worst start of the year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 4-1 this year following a one run loss, while SF is only 10-13 at home and just 5-9 (-3.9 units) after a win by two runs or less. Great value on the hungry visiting side.

Atlanta Braves

10*

The set-up: The Padres have lost six of their last seven, so clearly they won’t be lacking motivation/focus tonight. Arizona is 25-22 and the Padres are 23-24, but the Friars have already take four of seven in the season series. As good as Luke Weaver has been for Arizona of late, I think that the Padres’ rookie phenom Chris Paddack is the correct call in this case. 

The pitchers: Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA). Paddack is 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA. 

The pick: The Padres though are 6-2 in Paddack’s start this year and I look for that trend of success to continue again on Monday. Note as well that Arizona is just 7-10 vs. the division this season, while San Diego is 11-6 (+7 units) after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. Great price, play on the home side. 

San Diego Padres

10* play

The set-up: The Dodgers cruised to a victory in the opener of this series yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value to take the second in similar fashion. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side counters with Tyler Mahle. 

The pitchers: Buehler (4-0, 4.14 ERA) has looked stronger with each start in 2019. In two May starts he’s struck out 15 batters and his fast ball is reaching 99 MPH. Most recently he went seven scoreless vs. the Nationals.

Mahle (0-5, 3.97) has thrown better than what his record would indicate, but note that the Red safe still 1-7 in his starts and 0-6 in his last six. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 17-8 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is already just 5-15 as an underdog this season. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Oakland destroyed the Tigers 17-3 yesterday. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” in the second game. The home side sends Daniel Norris to the bump to atone for yesterday’s disappointing effort, while the visitors counter with Frankie Montas. 

The pitchers: Montas (4-2, 2.78 ERA) held the hard-hitting Indians to two runs over six innings last Friday, after holding the Pirates to one run over six frames of work. Montas hasn’t given up a home run in his last five starts and I believe he carries over that momentum here. 

Norris (2-1, 3.63) gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 23 then the total 9 or higher, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in ten of 13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. After yesterday’s slug-fest, expect these competent hurlers to be the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries.

Oakland A's/Detroit Tigers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two pitchers on top form collide in this National League contest on Thursday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium here. The Reds came out on top 6-5 in ten innings yesterday, but everything points to more of a “duel” between the Cubs Jose Quintana and the Reds Luis Castillo on Thursday. 

The pitchers: Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) had a four game win streak snapped in last Friday’s setback to the Brewers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

Castillo (4-1, 1.76) has won four straight, most recently posting a season-best 11 K’s over six shutout innings in a victory over San Francisco last weekend. He’s 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago.

The pick: Note that Chicago has seen the total go under in 9 of 14 vs. division opponents already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go under in ten of 16 at home. This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Red UNDER

10* play

The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, I like the home side to bounce back with its “ace” on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Archer, while the D-Backs counter with Zack Greinke. 

The pitchers: Archer (1-2, 4.33) returns to face his old team. Archer has been on the DL since April, he’d last five up six runs off six hits over four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers.  

Greinke (5-1, 3.16 ERA) comes into this one on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. He’s also 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Bucs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 38-61 (-15 units) the L2 years as a road dog between +100 and +150, while Arizona is 5-2 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has home side blowout written all over it. Lay the price.

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs rallied to win 2-1 in 15 innings last night and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here on Sunday night as well. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA) gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Nats on Monday. Chacin is just 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA on the road.

Lester (2-1, 1.41) gave up two runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Tuesday. Since returning from the DL Lester has given up just one earned run over 18 innings of work. 

The pick: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, this is considered the very definition of “great line value” in my books. Lay the short price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday’s win over the Pirates, but they managed only one in their 2-1 setback to the Bucs last night. St. Louis won’t be taking anything for granted here though as it’s lost seven of nine. The home side hands the ball to Miles Mikolas, while the visitors go with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) gave up one run off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the A’s last week. Lyles though has struggled against the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime, including 0-2 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA at Busch Stadium. 

Mikolas (4-2, 4.02) comes off back-to-back strong outings and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t keep the progression rolling here. Most recently he’s given up just one run over his last two starts vs. the Nats and Phillies. In six starts vs. Pittsburgh he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.03 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Cards’ slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 10 for 20 with three extra base hits and four walks vs. Lyles. I think the determined home side breaks out again at the plate. Lay the price.

STL Cards

The set-up: New York has been scuffling all season, but the good new is that the rest of the  division has as well. The Mets though now start a very favorable stretch of 13 games vs. fourth and fifth place teams and I think they’ll get the journey started off on the “right foot” tonight. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.03 ERA), while the home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-2, 4.64). 

The pitchers: Lopez comes in off a good start vs. the Braves on Sunday, going six scoreless. Lopez gave up two runs over six innings in a 5-2 win in his only matchup vs. the Mets.

Wheeler comes in off a decent outing vs. the Brewers on Saturday, allowing two runs over seven innings and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. Note as well that Wheeler is 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Fish.

The pick: The Mets have a big opportunity to catch the Phillies here, who only sit 4.5 games ahead in the NL East. The Marlins are the worst offensive team in the league and I think they’ll struggle with production against the suddenly improving Wheeler. Lay the price.

NY Mets

10* play

The set-up: The Yanks took the first two games of this series, 7-3 and 5-4, before the Mariners finally got off the schneid with 10-1 win on Wednesday. The Yanks though are still 15-6 in their last 21 games and I think they’ll bounce back here in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake, while the home side counters with JA Happ. 

The pitchers: Leake (2-3, 4.91 ERA) has been atrocious of late, going 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA over his past five starts. Note that in two career starts vs. New York he’s 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA. 

Happ (1-3, 4.93) has completely turned his season around after a horrible start, going 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts. He’s 4-2 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career outings vs. Seattle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 1-4 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while the Yanks are 6-2 at home as a favorite in the same price range. All things considered a very fair price in y opinion. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: Neither of these usually “rock steady” starters has looked great this year, but after getting swept in St. Louis, I think that Max Scherzer and the hungry visiting side offer great value to take Game 1 vs. the struggling Jhoulys Chacin and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pitchers: Scherzer (1-4, 4.08 ERA) is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Brewers.

Chacin (3-3, 5.24) has given up 27 hits and 18 walks so far this year. He’s had plenty of success against the Nationals as well in the past, but that was then and this is now.

The pick: Despite the recent slide, note that Washington is still 60-42 in its last 102 on the road, while Milwaukee is just 25-35 (-5.3 units) in it last 60 as a home underdog. I think the sharp money is on Scherzer. Lay the short price!

Washington Nationals

10* play

The set-up: The Nationals rallied for an improbable 10-8 win last night, but I think the home side bounces back and earns a win in the finale with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill. The Nationals send Anibal Sanchez to the mound, while the home side counters with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Sanchez (0-4, 5.91 ERA) is a terrible 5-10 with a 4.96 ERA in 22 starts vs. the Phillies. 

Eflin (3-3, 3.34) is a respectable 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA in four starts vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is still just 11-13 (-6.5 units) vs. right-handed starters this year, while Philly is 15-9 (+3.9 units) in the same position. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

Philadelphia Phillies

10* play

The set-up: Considering the current form of each starter, I think that the Braves could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka, while the home side counters with the volatile Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Soroka (2-1, 1.62 ERA) has allowed just one run in each of his three starts. He’s faced Miami once and owns a 0-0, 1.93 ERA record vs. them. 

Richards (0-4, 4.64) is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA over his past three starts. He’s faced the Braves just once in his career and he owns a 0-0, 10.38 ERA record vs. them. 

The pick: Atlanta won 7-2 in yesterday’s series opener, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here in my opinion. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: A clear mismatch on the mound makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The Dodgers hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the Padres go with Eric Lauer. And with only 1.5 games separating the clubs right now, clearly the hard-hitting visiting side won’t be taking anything for granted.

The pitchers: Kershaw (1-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off four hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Pirates on Saturday, giving up zero walks.

Lauer (2-3, 4.41) has been all over the map with his consistency this season and I think that trend continues in this tough matchup.

The pick: While they’re 11-6 on the road, note that the Padres are only 7-8 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up:The Orioles have scored three runs or fewer during its current four game losing streak. I think the surging home side which has won four straight will take full advantage. Chicago goes with Carlos Rodon on the hill, while the visitors go with David Hess. 

The pitchers: Rodon (3-2, 4.94 ERA) looks to bounce back after his worst start of the season, giving up eight runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Friday. Rodon had a 3.58 ERA at home last year.

Hess (1-4, 5.88) took the loss vs. the White Sox at Camden Yards on April 22nd, giving up four runs over five innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-7 in its last nine road games as an underdog in the +125 to +165 range, while Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 at home after a three games or more unbeaten streak. I think Rodon at home is the correct call.

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: Two great young prospects square off in this one, but I think that home field advantage will be significant. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Margevicus (2-2, 3.60 ERA) has been excellent so far, allowing only two runs once thus far. 

Soroka (1-1, 1.69) has been sharp as well in his limited time, posting 13 K’s over 10 2/3’s innings of work. 

The pick: Note that San Diego’s line-up with an injury to short stop Fernando Tatis Jr., who had an 11 game win streak going. Atlanta on the other hand strengthened its bullpen with the acquisition of leftie Jerry Blevins over the weekend. I like Soroka to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Lay the price.

Atlanta Braves

10* play

The set-up: Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale has been anything but an ace so far for Boston. But Sale has looked better of late and I think he’ll finally punch one into the win column here. The visitors counter with Tyler Glasnow. After Saturday’s 2-1 loss, look for the Red Sox to respond here. 

The pitchers: Sale is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA thus far. Clearly its been the most difficult stretch of his career. But Sale’s fast ball was finally reaching upwards of 95 MPH in his last start. Also note that he’s 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Rays, including going 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts last year. 

Glasnow is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA so far. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Glasnow, as he’s playing extremely well right now. I just think he’s in the wrong place in the wrong time in this one.

The pick: Note though that Glasnow is however 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts vs. Boston. Look for Glasnow to finally take a step back and for the Red Sox to give Sale more than enough production to earn his first victory.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Cards have taken the first two games of this series and I look for the surging home side to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Chacin (2-2, 5.92 ERA) won his first two starts before taking back to back road losses. He then gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday.

Wainwright (1-2, 4.74) has to be feeling confident here as he’s enjoyed a lot of success vs. the Brewers throughout his career, going 15-9 with three shutouts and a sharp 2.36 ERA. 

The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the home side is the red hot Paul DeJong. The Cards’ short stop is hitting .378 in nine games vs. Milwaukee this year with three home runs while driving in six. Brewers’ slugger Christian Yellich is 0 for 6 in this series and 1 for 9 in the past three vs. the Cards. I think Wainwright is the correct call here. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: The Yankees won 4-3 in extra innings last night and I like them to get the job done here as well, despite being down some key sluggers and players offensively. The Angels are also dealing with injuries, but overall this is a matchup which favors New York on the mound. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side counters with Chris Stratton. 

The pitchers: German (3-1, 2.37 ERA) who was bumped up to make this start because of last night’s marathon 14 inning game. German has to be feeling confident here as he’s jumped out to an early good start, posting the 2.37 ERA to go along with a 0.84 WHIP and 23 K’s over 19 innings of work overall. 

Stratton (0-1, 7.00) was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last start vs. the Mariners on Thursday, allowing six runs off seven hits over five innings. Over 18 innings Stratton has now allowed 14 earned runs leaving him with a horrible 2.00 WHIP.

The pick: As bad as the Yanks are injured, this pick is based entirely on the starting pitching. Great value, play on the visitors.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: Both games in yesterday’s double-header flew over the number, with the Tribe taking an 8-4 win in the first game and the Braves rallying late for an 8-7 win in the second. I like the Indians to bounce back in the rubber match tonight (as stated in my free play). So far Atlanta pitcher Max Fried has been exemplary, but I think he runs into a buzz saw here vs. this red hot Indians’ offense. He’ll also have his hands full with vs. his counterpart Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Fried, who is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA who has so far thrown three straight strong outings, faces a difficult task throwing opposite Bieber, who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Bieber most recently gave up one run over six innings in a win over he M’s on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven on the road, while Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six vs. southpaws. Despite these pitchers getting out to respective “hot” starts, I think these offenses continue to shine.

Braves/Indians OVER

10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-0 win yesterday, but I think that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers offer great value to bounce back in the finale today vs. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers.

The pitchers: Woodruff, who is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA has been decent so far, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Kershaw is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, who gave up a single home run in his first start back: "Definitely a good first outing back," Kershaw said. "I'll take that, especially the way we ended it. It was a fun night all around, other than that first inning. Definitely helps me remember I can do it. Any time first time out, you just want to make sure you can get hitters out again. 'You can do this, you can succeed. Do it efficiently.' Things to work on, which is good, but overall, a good first step."

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a huge 66-33 (+12.4 units) in its last 99 “day” games, while Milwaukee is interestingly only 23-34 (-6.4 units) in its last 57 as a home underdog. Look for Kershaw to continue his progression and lay the short price.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: I like the Pirates to build off their 4-1 win over the Giants in yesterday’s series opener. San Francisco has struggled with offensive consistency to open the 2019 campaign, and facing a motivated Jameson Taillon at home isn’t what the doctor ordered to get it turned around. The visitors counter with the volatile Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland (1-2, 4.09 ERA) most recently gave up four runs off four hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. The 32 year old has allowed a home run in each of his four outings thus far this season. 

Taillon (0-2, 3.43) gave up three runs over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. Chicago on Monday. Taillon was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year, including posting a sharp 2.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is an atrocious 22-46 (-13.8 units) in its last 68 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+13.8 units) in its last 35 as a favorite of -150 or more. This one has rout written all over it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

10* play

The set-up: Chicago had Thursday off and it’s won seven of ten. The Cubs come in with considerable confidence after sweeping the Fish on the road. So far Kyle Hendricks has struggled for Chicago, but I think the veteran will bounce back here in this favorable matchup. The Diamondbacks have also been rolling, but after a three-game sweep in Atlanta, including a 4-1 win on Thursday afternoon, I think the visitors take a step back here with Merrill Kelly on the hill.

The pitchers: Hendricks (0-3, 5.40 ERA) has completed only five innings once in three starts this year. He is however 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts vs. the D-Backs, allowing 17 hits over 25 1/3’s frames opposed, striking out 25 and walking six.

Kelly (1-1, 3.79) has been decent, striking out 17 and walking three over 19 innings so far this year. Clearly he faces a stiff test in this difficult road venue this afternoon though.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is still only 3-6 (-2.3 units) this year vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 69-48 the last two years after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest (shut out the Marlins twice in its series sweep.) Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play