The two bottom teams in the NL Central meet this week at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been outscored by 77 runs this season. That’s not a good differential by any means, but it’s better than the third place Pirates, who are -100 in that department.

The Reds come in at 25-47 and are in last place in the division. But they just won two of three out in San Francisco and are a respectable 22-25 after a horrible start to the season. The Cubs have lost 15 of 20. 

Luis Castillo is putting up solid numbers for Cincy, he’s just not been racking up wins. Consider there’s been only one start all season where Castillo allowed more than three earned runs. It was his last one and that was against the Dodgers. Castillo has a 0.97 WHIP on the road.

Keegan Thompson has turned in consecutive quality starts. But the two starts before that saw him allow 12 runs in 3 ⅔ innings. 

All things considered, I believe the Reds to be a solid value in the opener of this three-game series.

The Blue Jays were big winners in Monday’s opener, 7-2, but let’s not overlook the fact they have a big edge on the mound with Gausman going against Seabold. That’s not the case today when Wacha faces Stripling.

Before losing yesterday’s game, the Red Sox had won seven in a row and were 19-4 for the month. They’ve zipped past Toronto in the AL East, though now have just a half-game lead for second place after Monday’s result. 

Wacha will pitch better than Seabold did yesterday for Boston. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and has one of the only two Red Sox wins over Toronto in 2022. Back on April 27th, he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings. Overall, Boston is 9-2 in Wacha’s last 11 starts.

Stripling has just two quality starts this season and he came out on the losing end vs. Wacha on April 27th. Stripling didn’t pitch all that poorly, but the Jays still lost 7-1. He has a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. Boston.

The Red Sox have not lost back to back games all month. 

Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. 

The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game.

Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits.

Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well.

Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one.

The White Sox went one and three in their series vs the Orioles, scoring just 3 runs in the three losses. They have a very poor record vs the Angels, even worse when facing them at home. The Angels are 5-5 L10, and have been in a profound and surprising funk on offense, from which they appear to be emerging. Neither of Monday’s pitchers is coming off a quality start. The difference is Syndergaard the Angels’ starter gave up just 2 ER in his previous 2 starts, while Giolito has given up 19 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. Something has definitely gone sideways with Giolito’s mechanics. He has gone from a 2.57 ERA in April to a 9.00 ERA in June.

Monday’s game is a great opportunity for some of those slumping giants on the Angels’ side to break out, and for an aging Syndergaard to strut his stuff. He was very good last outing until a blowout eighth inning. I am on the side of the Angels today. L.A. To win outright.

The 5-5 Rangers, on the road vs the Royals, have historically had very good success in Kansas City. The Royals have been known to struggle at home, winning just 1 of 4 games lately, including losing their latest series against the A’s.

Bubic (7.41 ERA) starts for the Royals today He has struggled mightily this year but has improved in June, lowering his ERA to 3.92 for the month. He is, however, winless at home. He faces Martin Perez (1.96 ERA), a surprisingly effective left hander this year. He doesn’t overpower, but has shown tremendous control. His last two starts have been especially good.

The Rangers’ bats have been ripping into left handed pitching lately and are getting very solid work from their bullpen. The Royals generally struggle vs left handers and their pen has performing badly of late. The Rangers are favored today, and rightly so, I believe. I am taking the Perez and the road team to steal a victory today.

Two very good teams with a history meet up today for the deciding game of the series. The 7-3 Dodgers are on the road, where they are a cool 25-13 this season. They dominate right-handed pitching. After a very good run, the Braves are just 6-4 in their last ten, but are hitting up a storm, tops in the league over the last two weeks at .261/.835 OPS.

Young Braves right-hander Strider (3.40 ERA) starts for just the sixth time. 3 of the first 4 were very good, but he came back to earth in his last outing, giving up 6 runs in just 3.2 innings. He faces some stiff opposition in right-handed Dodgers starter, Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58). Gonsolin is off his “worst” start of the year, when he allowed 2 runs over five innings. Opposing hitters are just .115 against him in June.

The Dodgers have the top offense in the league for the season, but have slipped to 6th lately, still a very impressive .267/.788 OPS. They also have the edge in relief pitching with a very low ERA of 2.43 lately. The Dodgers are just a small favorite today, but Strider is very much still a work in progress; Gonsolin has the proven goods. Take the Dodgers to steal a win on the road.

The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians.

The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins.

Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching.

I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy!

The Nationals have won 2 of 3 after a long stretch of futility. The Rangers are 5-5, taking a pair from the Phillies before losing to the Nat’s in the first game of their home series. Josiah Gray (6-4, 3.95) starts for the Nationals, and he has 4 straight premium appearances, with a miniscule ERA of 0.53 in that time. Gray has cut down dramatically on the long ball, allowing just 1 in June.  He faces Matt Bush today.  Bush, a reliever, will make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen day for the Rangers.

Both teams are middle of the pack in offense lately. The Rangers generally have the edge in relief pitching, but Washington’s pen has been better of late. The Rangers pen has faltered when relied upon for a protracted number of innings, allowing 30 runs in the last 3 games when expected to cover 4 or more straight innings.

Washington is a small underdog today, but Gray has been more than effective lately. The Nationals are better on the road, and unfortunately for Texas, so are the Rangers. Look for the Nationals to take game 2 of the series, winning outright.

Don’t look now, but the Pirates are on a roll, winning 4 of their last 5 games. And putting up some decent numbers on offense. Meanwhile the Rays are struggling at just 3-7, and have some very serious injury issues on offense. The Rays are hitting just .228/.646 in the last two weeks, while the Pirates have “surged” to 25th place, with a .646 OPS.

Pirates’ starter Keller (4.72 ERA) has turned his season around in June with three straight quality starts and an ERA of 2.08 over 17 innings. Young Rays’ left-hander Springs had 7 of 8 very impressive starts and an exceptionally low ERA, but returned to earth in his last appearance with a 4 run in 4+ inning effort.

There has never been a bettter time to beat up on the Rays. The Pirates are a very serious underdog today, and with Keller and the team on a roll, I like them to at least stay close today. Take the Pirates on the run line, at + 1 ½.

Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings.

The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19!

Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under.

The Phillies have lost 3 of 4, scoring just 7 runs total. Ranger Suarez (5-4, 4.43) starts on Thursday and unlike last year he has been pretty average this season. In his last two starts he has as many walks as strikeouts, and has given up 7 runs, 5 earned, over 10 innings. He is up against one of the best in baseball at the moment, the Padres’ right-hander Joe Musgrove. At 8-0, with an ERA of 1.59, he has pitched 21 innings in June, giving up just 2 runs and lowering his ERA to 0.86 for the month. He is just off the Covid list.

The hometown Padres (7-3) have yet to lose with Musgrove on the mound, and just swept the Diamondbacks. Led by a very hot Machado, the Padres are a surprise 2nd in offense over the last 2 weeks, are 10-3 as a home favorite, and are 16-7 vs left-handed pitching. The usually hard-hitting Phillies have had a rough week or so, hitting just .200, with an OPS of .608. Don’t look for them to get back on track vs Musgrove or the Padres’ bullpen either. I am wagering on the Padres to win on Thursday.

The Astros are on the road vs the Yankees today. They have been very hot recently, limiting the opposition to 3 runs or less in 6 of 7 games, and winning all 6 of them. They are a solid road team, with good success vs right- handed pitching. Both of these offenses are in the top ten for the season. The Astros have surpassed the Yankees in recent games, and have their very good bullpen surging to a very low ERA recently.

Houston’s starter Lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.78) has had a very solid season, but has given up 3, 3, and 2 runs in his last 3 games and seen his ERA climb somewhat in June to 3.50. He has pitched very well on the road.

Right-hander Jameson Taillon (8-1, 2.70) has been equally impressive, but like Valdez, has seen his ERA climb in June, after sandwiching shutouts around a pair of 3 and 4 run outings. Taillon has not pitched for as much length lately, with just 14+ innings in his last three games. This would not be significant considering the Yankees’ formidable bullpen, but New York has some injuries in the relief pitcher column, and the pen has not been as sharp in recent games.

The Yankees have been masterful at home, and formidable vs left handed pitching (18-7). This should be a tight well-pitched game today. The Yankees are a favorite, but I am going with the underdog today. The Astros recent offensive surge and much better bullpen will decide this one. Take the Astros to steal this one.

The 2-8 Tigers are struggling and down a pair in their road series vs the Red Sox. They are woeful on the road this year and very poor vs right-handed pitching. They have been hitting for average lately but just can’t seem to score enough runs for a victory.

The Red Sox are the reverse at 8-2, and while their bats have cooled slightly, they are still getting the job done. They are a solid home team, and dominant (12-4) vs left handers. The Sox start Michael Wacha, who seems fully recovered from his brief stint on the IL. Three of his last four starts have been very sharp, and his ERA is just 1.98 in June. Wacha has been very sharp at home, with a 1.03 ERA in Fenway this season.

His opponent, lefty Tariq Skubal (3.13 ERA) has had some very good starts this season, but he has gone downhill progressively in his last 2 starts, allowing 4, and then 5 earned runs. His ERA has climbed to 4.70 in June. He has had no run support in his last two starts; the Tigers have been shutout in both games.

All roads point to a Red Sox victory, and I am taking the favorite today. The Tigers’ pen, one of their stronger suits this year, has not been successful of late. I’ll take the Red Sox’ offense any day. Take Boston for a home victory today.

The Phillies have lost their last two games, including their road opener vs. the Rangers, but have their ace on the mound to set things straight. Wheeler (6-3, 2.69) struggled a bit early in the season, but has been much improved, especially in June. He has a 1.42 ERA for the month, with 20 strikeouts to just 2 base on balls and very low hit totals.

The 6-4 Rangers can struggle at home and vs right-handed pitching this year. They have had little success vs Wheeler in the past, but have had much the better of the Phillies at home in the past. Jon Gray (4.27 ERA) starts for the Rangers. Gray also has had a good June, with two very good outings after a 5 run in 5 inning start. Opposing hitters have an average of just .193 for the month, although walks have been a bit of an issue. Gray has an ugly ERA in the first inning.

Both starters have thrown for 6 or 7 innings lately, which is significant because neither bullpen has been very strong, especially in the last week. The Phillies have the edge on offense. Wheeler and to a slightly lesser degree, Gray are capable of a quality start, but both of the bullpens have managed to spoil a few good outings lately. Wheeler has had very good run support this season.  I am wagering on a superior start from Wheeler, and the Phillies'offense and pen to pull through.  Take Wednesday's game to go to the Phillies.

This series got underway Monday with the Padres winning 4-1. But let’s not forget that before that, San Diego was swept out in Colorado over the weekend. I think Arizona, who has the better starting pitcher going on Tuesday, is a great value. 

It’s Zac Gallen going for the Diamondbacks here today. He’s got a 2.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team has won 8 of his 12 starts overall. This includes the last one where Gallen would go seven innings and allow just two runs. He only allowed two hits as well and issued no walks. 

Starting for San Diego here will be Sean Manaea. He allowed five runs in his last start and that came against the Cubs, who are not good. Not only did Manaea last only four innings, but he gave up two home runs as well. I don’t think Manaea can be trusted as a favorite, even a small one.

Though they won yesterday, the big news for the Padres was losing Manny Machado to a sprained left ankle. The team hopes he won’t be out long-term, but he’s going to miss this game. Machado led not just the team in almost every offensive category, but all of baseball in both on base percentage and slugging.

Take the underdog here.

The Pirates crushed the Cubs yesterday 12-1 and have now won back to back games for just the second time this month. Tuesday sees them sending out their best starting pitcher, Roansy Contreras, and he’s certainly due for a win, especially facing a Cubs team that has dropped 12 of its last 14 games.

These are two of the worst teams in baseball. But I look at Contreras as the difference maker in this matchup. He is still winless after five starts, but the team did win the last time they had him on the mound and that was against St. Louis as a +175 underdog. It’s a much weaker opponent they’re facing here.

In his first four starts, Contreras allowed only three runs and one was unearned.

The Cubs are now being outscored by almost two full runs per game on the road - where they allow 5.7 per game. It’s also not helping that over the last 11 days, the offense has scored 1 or 0 runs six different times.

Swarmer is the starter tonight for the Cubs. He’s allowed 10 runs over his previous two starts and tied a rather dubious franchise mark when he allowed six home runs against the Yankees. Play the favorite here.

The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well.

Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts.

The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week.

I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under.

The visiting Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and while their bats might have cooled off slightly in the Rays series, they thumped the Jays in the first game of the series, and got to a very tough Manoah yesterday. The pitching has been impressive, and today’s starter is one of the reasons why. Severino (2.80 ERA) has been mostly very steady and a strikeout machine this year. He has an ERA of just 0.69 in June. He did give up 3 ER in just 4.2 innings vs the Jays the last time they met, not one of his better starts.

The 5-5 Jays are a streaky team and have seen their potent offense drop off recently. They have very serious and unexpected pitching issues at the moment in both starters and relievers. Today’s starter Kikuchi (4.80 ERA) has not been effective recently, with short starts and a very high opposing batting average of .359. The Jays’ relievers has not been getting the job done, and cannot match the Yankees top of the line bullpen.

The Yankees are just a modest favorite today. This very likely will be an easy win for them. Take the Yankees to win. Again.

The Rays have lost 4 straight, including the opener vs the Orioles last night. The issue has been their hitting; they have allowed just 9 runs in their last4 games, but have scored a paltry 4 times. Today’s starter, Jeffrey Springs (1.45 ERA) now has 7 starts under his belt since switching from reliever to starter, and has yet to give up more than 2 runs. Now reasonably stretched out out, he has pitched into the 6th in his last 2 starts, giving up a total of 0 runs.

The 6-4 Orioles just took a series from the Jays, but today’s starter Kyle Bradish (6.86 ERA) is not their best bet for a second straight win. He showed some promise in early June, but was roughed up by the Jays in his last game. Opposing batters are teeing off to a tune of .333.

The Orioles’ bats have shown some clout lately, but have and likely will continue to struggle vs Springs. The Rays’ relievers are in “total shut down” mode with an ERA of 1.83 in their last 10 games. The Orioles pen has been barely OK at 4.08 ERA lately.

I am on the Rays to rebound today and open up on offense vs Bradish and the Orioles. Take the Rays to win outright.

The Cubs broke two streaks in their surprise 1-0 win on Friday; their own very lengthy losing streak and the Braves’ even longer win streak. Left-hander Justin Steele (4.33 ERA) tries for two straight Cubs win, and if he continues as he has pitched in June, it could happen. He has had a pair of 7 inning, 1 run outings lately after some rough starts in the end of May.

He faces right-hander, Kyle Wright (7-3, 2.57 ERA) who has been a very effective starter for the Braves this year. Wright has given up 2, 3, and 0 runs in his last 3 starts, with a total of 22 innings pitched. He is a strikeout master this year, with 80 to date.

With the exception of Friday, the Cubs’ pitching has been profoundly bad. Steele has been better than anyone else, but turning things over to the bullpen has been fraught lately. The Braves, again with the exception of Friday, have been tearing it up on offense, and have an exceptionally good relief corps at the moment.  It woulddn't surprise me if Steele matches up well with Wright, but sooner or later the  game will have to go to the relievers.  Take Atlanta to win outright.

The 6-4 Twins are on a tear lately on offense, hitting .280/.824 OPS in their last ten games. Today’s starter Smeltzer (2.38 ERA) has been a good news story for the Twins. With 6 starts under his belt this season, he has taken a step forward and held batters to a .203 batting average.

The Twins have roughed up some good starters lately and the D-backs’ Bumgarner could be next in line. May was a cruel month for him, giving up 15 runs and 7 HR. The poor play continued into June, although he bounced back in his last start. He hasn’t thrown for his customary length lately.

The D-backs are not a good hitting team, and this game will likely come down to the better offense. We seem, unfortunately, to be witnessing the beginning of the end of the line for MadBum. Smeltzer, now healthy, has been much better than expected. Go with the favorite today and take the Twins to win.

The Nationals were swept by the Braves, giving up an average of 9 runs a game in the series. They now face the high-flying Phillies at home. Washington has serious issues with their starting pitching, with many very short poor starts lately. Their bullpen has not been effective and is overused of late. Thursday’s starter, left-hander Patrick Corbin, has a couple of 6 inning starts at least. If you catch Corbin on a good day, he can give you a quality start, but the reverse is also true. At 3-8 and with an ERA of 6.65, there have been all to many poor outings this year.

The Phillies are a top five offense for the season, and are even better lately, with an OPS of .876. Today’s starter Wheeler (2.83 ERA) is in good form of late, with an ERA of 1.61 in his last 4 starts. He has more than a strikeout an inning to date, and consistently gives 6 or more innings. The Phillies’ bullpen always seems to be sore point, and that is certainly true lately. They are at least rested, and have been able to finish when a starter gives them some innings.

Look for the Phillies’ offense to run up the score vs Corbin and the bullpen to hold on post-Wheeler.

The Phillies are a heavy favorite today, but I am comfortable taking them on the run line at – 1 ½.

The 4-6 Rockies are back in Coors Field after a seven game road trip. The Rockies at home are a different beast. They win more often and their offense is unbelievably better; 4th in the league at home, and a distant 28th when on the road. They have lost 2 straight to the Guardians, and send out right-hander Chad Kuhl to stop the bleeding. Kuhl was badly roughed up in his last start by the Padres, and has been uneven this year, although his two previous starts were each 6 inning quality appearances. Kuhl is the rare pitcher who, so far, pitches better at home in Colorado.

Young right-hander Triston McKenzie starts for the Guardians. His season has been solid, especially early, but can also be uneven. Opponents are hitting just .174 against him, but his June results have been disturbing, especially the HR totals. He has given up 10 dingers in his last 5 games after allowing just 1 in May. Not a good look for a game in Colorado.

The Guardians are just middle of the pack on offense for the season, consistently around the .707 OPS. Their pitching has been very good, including relievers, of late. The Rockies’ pen, usually in the cellar, has been surprisingly effective lately.

While the Guardians are a favorite, I am concerned about McKenzie’s home run totals and his negative trajectory this month. I expect the Rockies to have some success vs McKenzie, and avoid the sweep.  Kuhl and the Rockies will at least keep this game close.  A Colorado win would not surprsie me.  Take the Rockies on the Run line, at + 1 1/2.

Matt Swarmer, the Cubs’ rookie, has 3 starts under his belt. Two of them were impressive, and then he met up with the Yankees, and gave up 6 earned runs in five innings, allowing, count’em, 6 solo home runs. Swarmer now has given up 9 home runs in 3 games. It will be interesting to see if the rookie can regroup. He can’t look for much support from the Cubs’ bullpen today. They have staggered to an ERA of over ten in their last 10 games

The Cubs face one of the best today in the Padres’ Joe Musgrove. With an ERA of 1.15 in his last 4 starts, he has been all things this year, pitching for effectiveness, consistency and length (20 innings pitched/ L3 starts). The Padres bullpen, good as usual, is clipping along with an ERA of just 2.17 in their last 10 games.

While the Padres aren’t usually the hardest hitting team, they have been tearing it up lately, climbing into the top ten in offense with an OPS of .789, just slightly ahead of the Cubs. On the verge of a sweep, they have outscored the Cubs 35 to 11 in the first three games of this series.

The Cubs are 0-9.  Musgrove and the Padres show no sign of slowing down and are a heavy favorite today.  Take them on the run line at - 1 1/2.  They should be fine for the extra runs.

The Atlanta Braves have come alive in a big way, and, while their hitting is top notch lately, they’ve also done it with their pitching. Spencer Strider made the switch from reliever to starter in late May. He gave up 3 runs in the first inning of start #1, but has only given up two other runs in 13 innings since. He pitched into the 6th inning and shut out the Pirates in his last start. He likely won’t be fully stretched out, but he’ll get the support of a sizzling bullpen, with an ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games.

The Nationals were crushed by the Braves in their last two starts and are getting nothing but hard luck from their relievers and starters. Fedde is on the mound for the Nationals, and can pitch well, but has not shown it lately, giving up 13 runs in 12 innings in his last three starts. His last outing was his best lately, but he still gave up 3 runs while pitching into the 6th.

The Nationals have been middling in offense lately, but are dead last in pitching effectiveness. They are 12-20 at home.  The Braves are 3rd in offense at .292/.917 OPS in the last two weeks. They have had considerable success against Fedde. Look for them to extend their streak on Wednesday.  Take Atlanta on the run line; They will be good for the extra  runs.

The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently.

The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year.

It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today.

Boston has gotten itself back into the playoff mix by going 9-2 in June. But they are still only fourth in their own division where they don’t have much chance of catching the hated Yankees. So it’s probably “Wild Card or bust” for the BoSox and they need to continue winning.

Lucky for them, they are facing the A’s to start the week. Out in Oakland, the Red Sox swept a three-game series earlier this month. They outscored the A’s 20-4 in those three games. 

Boston has posted four shutouts during their 9-2 run. I know that two of them were 1-0 games and they have two more one-run wins this month as well. But I think we’re “safe” playing the run line tonight. Quite frankly, I don't think this game will be close. 

The A’s have just one win in June. They will start Koenig, whose first start saw him give up four runs in four innings. The A’s are also a terrible team offensively, ranking last in average, last in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 29th in runs per game. 

I do think the fact the Red Sox haven’t needed many runs to win lately bodes well. They are hitting .262 as a team at Fenway, so they should put up a decent number tonight. Pivetta should handle the A’s lineup again as he threw seven shutout innings the last time he faced them. In 8 of his 12 starts, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less. He had 11 strikeouts in his last start. Lay the -1.5!

The Braves are red hot. They won their 12th straight game last night, beating Washington 9-5. The win streak has last year’s World Series Champs firmly back in the Wild Card mix in the National League.

As for the Nationals, things aren’t looking so good. They are in last place in the East Division and already there’s a six game gap between them and fourth place. I’d be shocked if they escaped the basement. 

But surprisingly, my numbers say to give the Nats a try today, albeit on the run line. On the mound, Jackson Tetreault is set to make his big league debut. There's the "unknown factor" here, which may throw Atlanta for a loop. I also really like the odds we're getting, while still being able to play the run line. 

Washington hits lefties pretty well, so I expect them to get the job done against Max Fried. Earlier in the year, the Nationals beat Fried as +195 underdogs on the money line.

Note that Washington may change starters prior to game time. I’m rolling with them regardless. I’m more confident in their ability to hit lefties than whomever the starter is. Also, the Nationals’ bullpen has been a lot better at home so far and the Braves just lost All Star Ozzie Albies to a broken foot. Take the run line (+1.5) here as we’re getting solid odds. 

Can’t see the Cardinals losing to the Pirates in the first game of today’s doubleheader. The Redbirds are already 6-1 vs. the Bucs in 2022 and won yesterday’s opener by a score of 7-5. The home team actually needed to rally from a five-run deficit, but the chances of Pittsburgh taking an early 5-0 lead for a second straight day would seem low. 

The Pirates might be the third place team in the NL Central, but they are actually quite bad. They have a -93 run differential, which is the worst in baseball. There’s a huge gap between the top two and bottom three in the Central Division. St. Louis leads the way with a 35-27 record.

As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Cards are 9-3 this year. So I’m not worried about laying the juice. Pittsburgh has lost seven straight games and was the underdog in six of them.

Brubaker isn’t a good starter. The Pirates’ righty is 0-6 in his 12 trips to the mound. His last win came on August 24th of last year. He is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime vs. St. Louis.

Liberatore starts this first game for the Cardinals. He’s made just one start at home thus far, but didn’t give up any runs. In fact, he allowed only two hits over five innings. Play ST. LOUIS in Game 1.

The Cubs have lost 6 straight, and were just swept by the Yankees. At home vs. the Padres, they start lefty Justin Steele (4.79 ERA). Just 1-5 this season, Steele has had a couple of very poor short starts, but otherwise keeps ER down to 2-3. Okay, sometimes 4. Bases on balls have been an issue. His last start was a fine 7 inning, 1 run effort.

He faces Yu Darvish (3.61 ERA) who can be very good (4 shut outs to date), but is not without sub-par outings. He has had 3 poor appearances, all on the road. The first inning has been a struggle.

The Padres are 7-3, and are better on the road than at home. They didn’t do much damage in their last 3 games, just 6 runs scored total, and have struggled on offense much of the season. They do win at a better clip vs. lefties. They have a good bullpen, very good in their last ten games at 3.00 ERA. The opposing Cubs relievers have struggled to a 5.33 ERA in the same time frame.

The Cubs can usually hit, but haven’t scored more than 4 runs in their last 6 games. They are poor on the road and just 15-26 vs. right-handed pitching.

I am on Darvish and the Padres on Monday. I have more faith in his abilities than Steele’s and there is the Padres’ road success and the Cubs’ bullpen to consider. Take the Padres to win outright.

The Jays have owned the Orioles, Mondays opponent. Their bats have come alive, especially when Manoah, today’s starter, is on the mound. Manoah has been as good as anyone this year, with a 1.81 ERA over 10 starts. At 7-1 he has not just effective,but consistent, with no poor starts to date.

The Orioles have won a pair but face a much tougher opponent in the Jays. Looking at their opposition, it has been a while since they faced a starter of Manoah’s caliber. Their rookie Bradish (6.45 ERA) starts on Monday. He generally has not been sharp, and won’t likely pitched for length, but has he had run support! He has won 3 straight games, and O’s have slugged 30 runs in his last three outings. Do not expect similar results against Manoah.

The Orioles have had a good bullpen lately and they are going to need it on Monday. Manoah pitches for length, Bradish doesn’t. The Jays are a huge favorite and have one of the best offenses in the league when clicking. They are averaging almost 8 runs scored a game, far more than will likely be needed. Take the Jays on the Run line to win, at – 1 ½.

The Rays have lost two straight on the road against the hard-hitting Twins, and will rely on left-hander Springs to avoid the sweep. With eight starts now under his belt, the rookie has impressed, with a 1.62 ERA. He began the season as a reliever but is now stretched out to 5 or 6 innings. His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Cardinals. The Rays can expect solid support from their relief corps, sparkling as usual, with a 1.78 ERA in their last ten games.

Starting for the Twins is rookie righty Sands, who has even less experience than Springs. He has potential but has yet to show it in the Bigs, allowing a run an inning on average in his first 3 starts, and lasting just 9+ innings. The Twins will have to rely heavily on their bullpen on Sunday, but their relievers have been very soft lately with a leaky 5.23 ERA in their last ten games. The combination of Sands and the Twins relievers ended in 10 runs in his last appearance.

For the Twins it seems to be win big or lose bigger lately. Their bats have been very hot, with a monster OPS of .983 in their last week, but do not hit left-handers with the same authority. They have owned the Rays lately but Sunday will be an exception. Look for Tampa Bay to rally and avoid the broom.  Rays to win.

At 8-2 in their last 10 games, the Red Sox have beaten up on the Mariners recently and out-dueled them last night. Today’s Sox starter, Wacha (1.99 ERA) had a rough start vs. the White Sox, but has bounced back twice since. His last time out was a 3 hit, complete game shutout. Even with that poor start, opposing batters are managing just .172 against him.

Wacha faces a promising young Mariners starter in Georg Kirby (3.38 ERA). With 6 starts under his belt, he has put up decent numbers and a ton of strikeouts. Still, he has had a couple of poor starts thrown in including one vs these same Red Sox, his worst appearance to date. The Sox have faced Kirby just once, but Story has had his number early.

While Boston isn’t hitting at quite the same torrid pace of some weeks ago, they still have a formidable offensive lineup. They are 7-1 in June and have a solid road record. The Mariners are hitting well of late, but oddly, neither team has a winning record vs. right-handers. The Red Sox bullpen has been terrific lately; the Mariners’ solid but not as impressive as the Sox’. The Mariners are favored today, but I can’t see it. They are not dominant as a home team, and Kirby has faltered more often than Wacha. Take the Red Sox to win on the road tonight.

Rangers are 1-3 on their recent road trip but have stellar lefty Martin Perez (1.56 ERA) on the mound to turn things around. He has pitched 20 innings, giving up only 3 runs, in his last three starts. With just 1 HR allowed this season, he has also been very good on the road. He faces White Sox right-hander Giolito. Giolito has double the ERA and has given up more hits and homeruns that is desirable this season. The White Sox aren’t a strong home team this year, even as a favorite. Neither team had been particularly strong on offense although the Rangers have the edge for power lately. Both pens have also been ok lately.

The difference on Saturday will be the superior performance of Perez. I expect a longer and more stingy outing when compared to Giolito. The Rangers are underdogs, but I believe they will steal this one.  Rangers  to win outright!

The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games).

The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5.

I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson.

Winners of 7 straight, the Yankees pitchers have an ERA of under 2 in the last two weeks. They’ve just finished a stretch of 5 straight games when they gave up 1 or less runs PER GAME. Left hander Cortes is leading the pack. Opposing batters hit just .158 vs Cortes in May. He is not overpowering, just wildly effective, giving up just 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. The Yankees won’t need much from their relievers with Cortes on the mound, but if they do, there is no bullpen better at the moment.

The Twins have been hovering around .500 lately, with pretty average hitting and a pitching staff, both starters and relievers, with inflated numbers. Chris Archer is not his old self, but he has been reasonably effective in very short starts this season. Don’t expect more than 5 innings from Archer. While his last start was a 5 inning 1 run effort, his ERA has drifted up over 5 in the last month. The Twins will likely dip into the pen fairly early, and an ERA close to 5.00 lately is not a good look against a team offense as hot as the Yankees’. Did I say how hot? Try .297 BA and a .945 OPS.

The Yankees are obviously favored, but are a fine wager on the runline.  Take the Yankees - 1 1/2!

It is the Nationals’ Josiah Gray vs Miami’s ace Alcantara in the second game of the Marlins’ home series. Gray (4.71 ERA) has pitched well in his last two starts, but has had some ugly outings this year. He has faced the Marlins twice this season, allowing 3 and 4 runs over 11 innings total, but is 4-0 on the road.

Alcantara is on a tear, with three straight victories and a sparkling 1.81 ERA. He has allowed just 1 run with 29 Ks over 24 innings in those three starts. You really couldn’t ask for more.

Both teams struggle for wins, but Alcantara tends to earn all of his. Gray has had some solid run support in a number of his victories, and that will likely not be the case today. The Marlins are hitting surprisingly well in their last 10 games, especially vs right-handers, and better than the Nationals in that period. Both bullpens have been very poor but Alcantara will very likely pitch later into the game than Gray. With some especially short outings by the Nationals’ starters lately, Washington could be in a real bind for relievers today. It seems it is an underdog day today. I am taking the Marlins on the Run line. I believe they are good for the extra runs.

The Astros failed me last night. But I’m so confident in them bouncing back today that I’ll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line.

Benches cleared in the ninth, but it was Seattle that dealt the real blow, winning 7-4. But if you look at the box score, you’ll realize Houston had more hits (10 to 7) and that some more timely hitting (they were 1 for 9 when they had runners in scoring position) could have gotten them the “W.” 

The loss was just the second for Houston over its past eight games. They lead the American League West with a 35-20 mark and they have only played 21 home games (14-7). Seattle is 13-20 on the road and remains five games below .500 overall.

Justin Verlander should dominate the M’s tonight. He has a 0.80 WHIP this year and has lost only one of his last seven starts. That one loss did come to Seattle. But Verlander took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. 

For Seattle, Chris Flexen is still winless away from home and comes into tonight’s start sporting a 4.55 ERA. He started opposite Verlander on May 27th and got the win, but is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. Lay the -1.5.

The Nats have won three in a row, but those games were against the Reds. As the road team, they’re up against it here with Adon (1-9, 5.98 ERA) on the mound, facing a Miami team that’s beaten them in five of six previous meetings this season.

Miami was competitive with San Francisco over the weekend, splitting the four-game series. The Marlins may be eight games below .500 right now, but they have scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. 

Cabrera will start tonight’s game for the home team. He had an outstanding season debut last week, tossing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit, in Colorado no less! 

Washington’s pitching has been dreadful so far in ‘22 and the team is 1-10 with Adon starts. Adon has made it past the fifth only two times and on the road he’s 0-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

So far, in six head to head battles this year, the Marlins have outscored the Nationals 28-13. They are the better team playing at home. Even though they’ve won three straight, I’d still consider the Nats one of the worst teams in baseball. Lay the price.

The Mets are a very sharp 8-2, off a pair of wins vs the Dodgers. Meanwhile the home-town Padres took 3 of 4 against the Brewers, earning a pair of shutouts. Padres’ left-hander Snell has returned from the IL, and now has three starts under his belt. He has been progressively better in each of the three, and appears to be rounding in to shape, with a 6 inning, 2 run outing in his last start. He faces Carrasco who has a sparkling record of 6-1, but has also been uneven, ranging from an 8 inning shutout to a very rude 8 runs over 3+ innings. Most of Carrasco’s poor starts have been on the road, and opposing hitters are averaging a lusty .283.

The Mets are 3rd in offense, hitting for average and power this year, but drop all the way to 15th vs left- handers. The Padres have not been busting out on offense lately but they have had very solid pitching across the board.

I am on the Padres on Monday. Snell is due, the Mets are on the road & below .500 vs lefties, and Carrasco is a bit of a question mark on these days. Take the Padres to win..

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Astros in their home series in May. Now they travel to Houston where they have had very little success in the past. Left-hander Robbie Ray starts for the Mariners today. He has been consistently average this season. He still gets his strikeouts, but his ERA for May was 5.24. He has struggled on the road this year.

The Astros are 7-3, and very tough to beat at home. While they are surprisingly just average on offense this year, they are a very robust 14-4 vs. left-handers. Today’s starter, Javier, has only 6 starts this year. He had one poor outing, but otherwise has been exceptional, giving up just 2 runs in his last 3 starts. His only negative is that he doesn’t generally throw for length. No matter. The Astros have the best bullpen in the league, and it is in fine form at the moment.

The Mariners’ pen has struggled to an ERA of over 4.00 for the season and are just 4.23 over their last 10 games.

The Astros are very tough vs lefties, and Ray, this year at least, cannot be considered a premier starter. The Mariners have had no previous success vs Javier, little success in Houston, and there is no comparison between the two teams’ relief corps. Take the Astros to win today.

Down 2-1 in their road series vs the Cubs, the Cardinals send out the ageless Wainwright to even things up. Wainwright had a couple of sub-par starts in April but has been his usual steady self in May, with a 1.69 ERA and opposing batters hitting just .174 for the month.

The Cubs are hitting well, but their pitching is poor. Starters are over 5.00 ERA for the last two weeks, and relievers are an ugly 6.55 in the same period. The Cubs’ lefty, Steele’s starts have been on the short side. Other than 2 quality starts, he has given up more runs than would be desired, hence an ERA of 5.40. He has been terrific vs. Arizona but most other teams have had the better of him.

While the Cubs are hitting much better than the Cards for the season, the Cards are the hottest hitting team in baseball vs left handers, while the Cubs are just 19th in the league vs right handed batters, just 14-22 in games vs the right.

I am on the side of the old guy on Sunday. Look for the Cardinals to open up on Steele, and their superior bullpen to save this one. Take St Louis to win.

The Mariners are hot, winning five of seven games. The Rangers, after winning 5 of 6, have now lost three in a row. Both teams have solid starters on the mound today. Seattle lefty Gonzales (3.55 ERA) doesn’t overpower anyone but has been getting consistent results, if not wins. Opposing teams, including the Rangers have hit Gonzales well recently, but he usually manages to keep the run totals down. He doesn’t get much support from Mariners’ batters, and his walks to strikeout ratio lately has not been good.

Rangers starter Otto (4.33 ERA) has been very sharp, particularly in his last 3 games. One extremely poor start skewed his ERA, but otherwise, he has pitched very consistently, giving up just 4 runs in his last 18 innings.

While the Rangers’ bullpen failed them in the ninth last night, they have been very good for the year, especially in the last few weeks. The Mariners’ pen has struggled this year, with a real inability to finish games. They have converted just 8 of 15 save opportunities.

I am on the Rangers tonight. They hit left handed pitching well and have had good success vs Gonzales. The Mariners have not been great on the road, and some of Gonzales’ recent stats are concerning. Look for Otto and the bullpen to put it together tonight. Rangers to win.

The Red Sox are the hottest hitting team in the MLB over the last two weeks with a .309 batting average, a .915 OPS, and 24 home runs. Oakland’s batting average is 80 points less and has less than half the homeruns in the same period. With all that power, The Sox still can’t seem to win two games in a row. Friday night could be the night for the Sox, as the A’s, at 1-6, struggle to win at all, and have been limited to a single run in 4 of 10 starts.

Eovaldi starts for the Red Sox, and other than one miserable outing, he has been very solid. Eovaldi has one ugly stat this year; he has given up 16 home runs to date, accounting for almost all of his earned runs. On the plus side, Eovaldi pitched a 9 inning 2 ER complete game in his last appearance.

He faces Kaprielien, who returned from the IL on May 1, and has already pitched 5 starts. Not one of his outings has been over 5 innings, and in his last two games he has given up a run an inning. He too has been a victim of the long ball.

Boston’s bullpen has been roughed up but not nearly as badly as the A’s relievers, who are struggling along at a 6.23 ERA.

If you are going to give up the long ball, the A’s are a far saver option than the Red Sox. Not only do I think the Sox will win on Friday night, I think they will do it in style. Take Boston on the run line, at – 1 ½.

The Diamondbacks had almost played themselves in to respectability before they were swept by the Dodgers. They bounced back against the Braves, taking the series, and have been a .500 road team this year. Merrill Kelly, their best pitcher in April, has come back down to earth in May, with an ERA of over six and double the base on balls. His start length has also slipped. He has been ugly in the early innings.

Meanwhile the Pirates swept the Dodgers in LA, and are 6-4 L10. They have hit comparatively well lately, although neither team is considered a powerhouse. Brubaker has been the reverse of Kelly, with good success in May and an ERA of 2.65. His last two appearances have been 5 and 6+ inning shutouts. Relief pitching has been reasonably effective lately for both teams, although the edge goes to the D-backs.

Brubaker has yet to win a game this year, but today might be the day. He has impressed, and Kelly has not lately. It could be close, but I expect the Pirates to continue in their winning ways, at least for tonight. Take Brubaker and the Pirates to win.

The Yankees have struggled at 5-5, with the offense struggling lately, but they are home vs the Angels and have been dominant in Yankee stadium. The Angels are just 3-7, and lost have lost 6 straight. For the Angels, pitching has been the culprit. Starters have a 5.00 ERA while relievers are even worse at 5.66 ERA over the last two weeks.

Reid Detmers starts the 2nd game of the doubleheader today. It is amazing how often that a pitcher struggles after a no hitter. Detmers is a case in point, allowing 8 runs in the 9+ innings since. He has only had one (very) good start in May, and his strikeouts to walks ratio is not impressive.

His opponenet today is Jameson Taillon (2.45 ERA), who at 5-1, has been not just good, but also consistent, with excellent length. His last start was an 8 inning shut-out.

The Yankees’ relievers have not been to their usual standard, but Tailllon is not likely to need much support. The Yankees crushed the competition yesterday, and with Angels starter only going 2+ innings, the Halos’ ineffective bullpen will be very thinly stretched in a doubleheader today. Take the Yankees to find their form at home today. New York to win outright.

The Rays have been beaten up by the Rangers two days running, but Tampa may have better success on Wednesday. Rays’ starter Springs has sprung, it would appear. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 4 starts under his belt, with two shutouts and a 2 run appearance in his last three starts. He threw for 6 innings in his last start so is nearly stretched out. He appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year.

Rangers’ starter Gray (5.56 ERA) has not been very effective this season, other than a one-off vs the Yankees. He will give the Rangers 5 or 6 innings, but it isn’t always pretty. He gave up 5 runs in his last start.

The Rangers have been hitting well in the last two weeks, with a batting average of .274, and an OPS of .778. They also hit left-handers very well. The Rays can’t match the Rangers in either offensive stat at the moment, but I will still take the Rays’ bullpen any day. I am on Tampa on Wednesday. Look for the Rays to run up a lead against Gray and the bullpen to hold it. Rays to win.

The Jays are on a roll, the White Sox, no so much, however they have Kopech (8 starts, 1.29 ERA) on the mound today, who has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Kopech spent most of 2021 as a reliever, but it is as a starter this year that he has really shone. He has given up just 6 runs in 8 starts, with opposing batters hitting just .103. The Jays haven’t faced Kopech as a starter. His last outing was a 7 innning shutout.

The Jays counter with Ryu, who has bounced back from a poor April and a stint on the IL. Ryu can be the master of the slow stuff, but when things go wrong, they go very wrong in a hurry. He has had 3 solid starts in a row now, giving up just 3 runs over 15 innings.

The White Sox’ bullpen has struggled lately with an ERA of 5.26. The Jays’ has been better, but not stellar, and their slumbering offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks. The Sox are hitting well for average, but have been short on power for much of this season.

With the Jays’ first real look at Kopech and Ryu on a roll, I like the sounds of the total today. Take the Sox and Jays to go under.

Tuesdays Brewers and Cubs starters faced each other earlier this year. It was no contest, with the Brewers winning 9-1. The Brewers are on the road, but have proved to be a very good road team this year, especially as a road favorite. They have won 3 straight, including 2 against the Cubs, and have, in addition to their fine starters, quite a bit more pep in their bats than last year.

Brewers left handed starter Lauer, had an off-day a couple of starts ago, when he gave up 4 runs and 3 home runs over 5 innings, but he has been very sharp before and since. Cubs’s starter, another lefty, Steele has struggled at times and even when pitching well has had no support. He had a couple of fine efforts, then the bottom fell out vs. the Reds (7 runs in 2+ innings) in his last game. His starts have been very short; just 3 of 9 lasting over 4 innings.

The Cubs have been hitting well, but have lost 5 of 6, and one reason for the poor success has been the bullpen, with an ERA approaching 6.00 in their last 10 games. By contrast, the Brewers relievers are cruising with an ERA of under 2.00. The combination of a pitcher like Steele with a short start and the Cubs’ poor pen won’t win many games. I am on the Brewers on Tuesday.

Injuries have affected the seasons of both starters today. Boston’s Wacha was going gangbusters in April, but has not been the same since a stint on the IL. Batters hit .143 against him in April, and .255 in May. The Reds’ ace, Castillo (4.35 ERA) missed all of April, and has just 4 starts to date. He has been better in each start, with a 2 run 5 inning effort last time out.

The Reds have won 4 of 5, beating a couple of good Giants pitchers in the process. The Sox are in a “win one, lose one” pattern, with some huge totals, for and against, in their last 10 games. The Reds are also hitting well, and are much improved since their abysmal start.

Neither bullpen has performed well lately and neither pitcher has pitched deep into the game, although Castillo should be stretched out by now and might be due. Especially concerning is Wacha’s play lately. It is a cool day in Fenway, and quite possibly a losing day for the home team. Take the underdogReds to win today.

The Rays are 6-4 L10. The bad news: they have scored just 9 runs in their last 4 games, all vs. the Yankees. The good news: the Rays’ pitching staff held the Bronx Bombers to just 5 runs in 3 games.

The Rangers have won 4 of 5 games, scoring 28 runs in their 4 game series against the A’s. An obvious observation, the A’s aren’t the Yankees; a much tougher series faces the Rangers, starting on Monday.

Rasmussen is first up for the Rays. At 5-1, with an ERA of 2.68, he has had a successful start to his season. He had a stretch of 5 starts where he gave up 1 run or less, before yielding 3 runs in his last start. If there is any complaint against Rasmussen, it is that he doesn’t pitch much past the fifth inning. This is not such a concern when you have the Rays’ bullpen.

Glen Otto starts for the Rangers. He pitched well in his last two starts after being shelled by the Red Sox. Otto gives up a fair number of base on balls, and has not pitched well at home to date. He does not throw for length either, but has also had a solid season.

The Rangers have out-hit the Rays lately, and while the Rays are no powerhouse this year, one has, again, to consider the teams’ recent opposition. The Rangers’ relievers have been sharp lately, but I’ll take the Rays’ bullpen any day. Tampa Bay is a perennially well coached team. If there is one thing I have learned the hard way, “all things being even close to equal, always take the Rays.” I am wagering on the Rays on Monday.

The Pirates face the home-team Padres today, and each team has a young and, so far, successful starter on the mound. Pirates’ right-hander Contreras has been up and down from Triple A a couple of times, but in between has pitched masterfully with just 1 run given up over 11 innings. His last outing was a five inning shutout. I doubt we can expect much more length than that today.

Padres’ lefty, Gore is the more tested of the two, with 7 starts and an ERA of 2.06. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings once, but otherwise has been exceptional. As far as relief pitching goes, the Padres have a definite edge; the Pirates’ lair has struggled lately, where the Padres’ relievers have been razor sharp in their last ten games.

Pittsburgh can’t seem to hit a lick this year, dragging up the rear for the full season. They are particularly feeble vs left- handed pitching of late. Th Padres aren’t much better for power, earning just 3.3 runs per start to date.

Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher, usually an advantage to the pitcher. Both starters have looked very composed to date. While the Padres should be favored today, the lop-sided odds suggest a close look at the total.  Offenses considered, I will take these two pitchers to continue their fine play.  Take the Pirates and Padres to go under.

The Dodgers have won 8 0f 10 games, and are top of the heap or close in all pitching and offensive categories. Gonsolin (1.62 ERA), who has been their best starter this year, has given up tw o runs twice in8 starts, both against the D-backs. Otherwise it has been one run or less per start. He is young and doesn’t pitch more than 5 or 6 innings per start, but the Dodgers bullpen, which had slipped a bit, is now back in top form.

The Dodgers’ bats are really tearing up the league at the moment, with 9 or considerably more runs scored in 4 of 10 games. Merrill Kelley, Saturday’s starter on Saturday, gave up 8 runs in 2 innings to the Dodgers earlier in May. Kelley was great in April, but has fallen from grace in May, with his ERA dropping to 6.53 this month.

The Diamondbacks are also hitting well this season, especially in the last couple of weeks, but I don’t think they will score many runs vs Gonsolin and crew on Saturday. The Dodgers have been very hard on the D-backs, outscoring them 38-13 in their last 4 meetings and are already up 4-0 in the second on Friday. Even if Kelley bounces back, which I am not betting on, the D-backs’ bullpen is really struggling lately. I am wagering on the Dodgers on the run line, at - 1 1/2.

The Royals haven’t had much success against the Twins at just 1-5 in recent match-ups. They haven’t been beating anyone else lately either, losing 6 of 7, and allowing 6 or more runs in each of those losses. Pitching, and in particular, relief pitching has been the culprit with a bullpen ERA approaching 7.00 for the last 10 games. The Twins, on the other hand, are 8-2, thanks to their starters, who have an ERA of just 1.57 in their last 10 starts.

Both these teams are hitting well. The usually anemic Royals have reached heady heights, climbing to 8th in the league over the last 10 games. Don’t count on this necessarily continuing. The Twins are a decent hitting team for the season who are also hitting well over the last two weeks. They certainly flexed their offensive muscle in their last series against the Royals.

Bailey Ober (2.55 ERA) starts for the Twins. He was on the IL for three weeks in May, but returned in the same form, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. Other than a 4 run first start, Ober has given up 1 run or less in all of his other starts. Royals’ pitcher Keller’s first starts were fine, but he has slipped badly in his last three starts. His ERA has doubled, climbing to 4.15 in May. The temptation will be to leave Keller in too long. He struggles in later innings, but the Royals cannot count on their bullpen.

The Twins are dominant at home, and almost unbeatable as a home favorite. The Royals aren’t impressive at all on the road. Keller might have his hands full on Friday. Off a loss and with their winning streak snapped, the Twins will be extra-motivated against a struggling Royals team. Take the Twins on the run line, at – 1 ½.

The Rays lost at home to the Yankees on Thursday, and will look to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1.32 ERA) to turn things around. Springs will have a pretty good chance in doing so. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 3 starts under his belt, and his 2nd and last starts were 5 inning shutouts. While not completely stretched out, he appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year. While the Rays’ pen failed them last night they are generally a very good bullpen, so Springs’ length is not critical today.

The Yankees rely on Taillon (2.95 ERA) today. His worst start came just 2 appearances ago, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings, but in 7 other starts, it has been 2 runs or less. He gives up a fair number of hits, hut has limited hard contact to date. They Yankees generally have a very fine group of relievers, but are missing 3 key members and are struggling lately.

The Yankees could be missing a trio of big boppers today, and while their offense has been dominant this year, they are just as fallible vs quality pitching as anyone else. They have little experience or success vs Springs. All things considered, I expect a relatively low scoring affair this evening. Take the Yankees and Rays to go Under today.

The Brewers face the Cardinals in St Louis, and both have premier starters on the mound. Left handed Eric Lauer (2.16 ERA) starts for the Brewers. Lauer has had a couple of slightly off outings this season, but most have been very high quality. His last start was a 7 inning shutout. He has shown great control, and has struck out 54 batters to date.

The Grand old man, Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis. Wainwright had a couple of rough outings in April, but has been coming up roses in May. Opposing batters are hitting just .119 this month.

I am favoring the Brewers on Thursday for a couple of reasons. The Brewers are very tough on right-handers and are one of the few teams that has had success vs. Wainwright in the past. While the Cardinals’ hitting stats are huge over their last 10 games, two very high scoring games have skewed those stats. It has been a different story vs. good pitching. The Brewers are not the anemic team of last year, hitting in the middle of the pack or better this year.

My main concern with the Cards is their bullpen. While both starters will likely pitch for length, the Brewers have a huge edge in relief pitching, with a 2.34 ERA over the last 10 games compared to 5.14 for the Cardinals. The Brew crew knows how to finish a game , with 20 saves recorded this season, tops in the MLB. The Cardinals have just half that number. Take the Brewers, an underdog, to steal this one from the Cardinals on Thursday.

The Rangers unexpectedly swept the Angels in their home series, but have struggled since, losing 5 of 6 games. The Angels have been streaky, recently winning 3 straight. Yound lefty Detmers starts for the Angels. Famous now for his no hitter, he has otherwise been pretty average, with relatively short starts and a 4.15 ERA. Other than the one start, he has consistently struggled after the third inning.

For Rangers starter Otto, it has been the reverse. One very bad outing (8 runs over 3.2 innings) has skewed an otherwise reasonable start. In his other 4 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. With rare exceptions, neither pitcher has thrown for length this season, and both bullpens have struggled recently. The Angels’ pen has an ERA of over 5.00 in their last ten games, whilethe Rangers relievers’ ERA is over 4.00 in their last five games.

There is no contest on offense. The Angels are at the top of the heap in OPS with the Rangers bottom-feeders on offense for the season. I think it will be the Angels offense and both bullpens that decide this game. Look for plenty of runs late in the game, and take the OVER today.

Someone lit a fire under the Red Sox hitters, and boy, have they responded, in particular Devers, JD Martinez and Story. They are the hottest hitting team in baseball with a .285 BA and a huge .854 team OPS. The White Sox are better than usual lately, but pale in comparison. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox. He has been generally great, but has had a couple of off days. His last start was very good but in the previous one, he gave up 6 runs over 4 innings to the Yankees. He has a phenomenal strikeout total of 67 to date. There are concerns with Cease; he has given up more hits and walks than usual lately and the Red Sox have had very good success in the past against him.

It took until his second start in May to get going, but Boston’s starter Pivetta has been sensational since, giving up just 2 ER in a whopping 22 innings over 3 starts. His last start was a complete game effort, allowing just 1 run. The Sox have won 8 of 10, and are even getting solid relief pitching at the moment.

The White Sox are favored on Tuesday, but I am on the Red variety for Tuesday. Boston is a very good hitting team on an absolute tear at the moment. Cease has been up and down lately. I think Boston has a real shot at winning, but if nothing else, I expect them to keep this one close.   Take Boston on the run line at +1 1/2.    

Phillies’ starter Zack Wheeler took his time getting going this season, but is now pitching at an elite level. He has an ERA of 1.35 in May, with 23 strikeouts to 2 walks, and just two home runs-against for the year. He has thrown 7 innings or more in 2 of 3 last starts.

He faces young lefty Tucker Davidson (5.87 ERA), whose only start this year was a five inning shutout, fresh off the bus from triple A, He gave up 5 runs in 2.2 innings of relief in April.

Both teams are just over .500 in their last ten games. The Phillies have the edge in offense, particularly against left-handers. The Braves have the better bullpen but will likely have to dip in earlier.

I’ll take the proven ability of Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense over the unproven talent of Davidson.  After that adrenaline-driven first start, a rookie often returns to earth on the 2nd. Take the Phillies to win.

The Dodgers faced the Phillies in LA, and were uncharacteristically thumped in the first 3 of 4 games, giving up 29 (!) runs in those 3 games. Since then, they have won 7 straight, including 3 against those same Phillies. Gonsolin ( 1.63 ERA) starts for the Dodgers on Sunday. He has arguably been their best pitcher this year, showing great consistency, giving up less no more than 2 runs a start, with 3 shutout appearances mixed in.

The Phillies are 1 -6 since that rude outburst against the Dodgers, and after scoring all of those runs in three games, have managed only 12 in the 7 games since. Eflin (3.90 ERA) starts for the Phillies and the verdict on him is “pretty good”, with 3 real quality starts in 6 appearances, including his last one. The Dodgers do have previous experience with, and considerable success against Eflin.

The Dodgers offense has been on a tear the whole season, but are particularly potent just now with a vicious .879 OPS. The Phillies have plummeted all the way to the bottom of the barrel in their last 7 games, hitting just .194 with a miserable .501 OPS. Playing against Gonsolin and the Dodgers’ bullpen is not a good place to expect to turn things around. The Dodgers are tough on righties and formidable on the road. I am on the Dodgers to extend their winning streak on Sunday.

Off a win last night, he Twins meet the Royals for the second game of the KC series. The Twins are just over .500 on the road, but the Royals have struggled at home this season. Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.39 ERA), the Twins starter today, has been a bright light this season, and shutout the Royals in April. With just one sub-par start in 7 appearances, he has also been good on the road.

Royals’ starter Brad Keller was terrific in April, but things have gone somewhat south in his two recent starts. The Twins have had previous success vs. Keller.  Keller has seen opposing batters' average rise by 100 points in May, and given up 3 home runs in his last two starts.

The Twins have the edge in relief pitching for the season and in recent games. The Royals have shown a bit more offense recently, but the Twins are a better offensive team as well.

I am on Ryan and the Twins today. Watch the Royals continue to struggle at home and take the Twins to win again.

The Jays bats have been a big disappointment lately. Thought to possess a formidable offense this year, they are hitting just .215 vs right-handers, and have sunk to 27th in the league in OPS. To put this in perspective, the lowly Reds have climbed from near worst to 7th, with a .755 OPS in their last two weeks. The Jays are getting good results from starting pitching but have squandered some very fine outings. Manoah (1.71 ERA), who has arguably been their best starter was the victim of a poor effort from the offense plus questionable play in the field last time out. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 7 starts to date.

The Reds have also getting good starting pitching, including rookie Hunter Greene’s first quality start of his career. Greene has monster stuff but has not been able to harness it until his last start. The result was a 7+inning no hit shutout. Just about anything is possible from Greene on Saturday, but the way the Jays have been hitting, another fine outing is a possibility.

The Jays are a huge favorite against the Reds, an unwarranted favorite considering the two teams’ recent action. Friday’s game ended in a 2-1 final score. Greene is just the kind of pitcher the Jays have struggled with in the past.  Take Saturday's total to go under.

Here is a turn around. The offense-starved Tigers are out-hitting the Guardians in their last 7games. Not that the Tigers have been great, but the Guardians are hitting just 180, with an OPS of .574.

Civale starts for the Guardians, and unlike last year when he was unbeatable early, the season could hardly have gone worse for him. He has a 9.85 ERA, very short starts, with opposing batters hitting well over .300 against him.

His mound opponent, lefty Tariq Skubal has been very good, with a couple of sub-par starts compared to 5 quality appearances including 3 shut outs. He has pitched into the 6th and 7th, and is also getting some run support.

Detroit is not gifted on offense. They have produced 4 or more runs in just 3 of 10 games, but they will get an opportunity against Civale. They also have a very good bullpen this year. The Guardians have not excelled vs left-handed pitching, and their relievers have been unimpressive lately. Civale’s lengthy struggles do not suggest an immediate turn-around. Mark my words,I am wagering on the Tigers to win on Friday.

The Mariners have cooled off, winning just 1 of their last 4 games, and were roughed up by the Red Sox last night. Their big acquisition, Robbie Ray (4.62 ERA) has been a disappointment this year. He still gets a ton of strikeouts but is giving up too many walks and home runs to be really effective.

His mound opponent is Michael Wacha, who has missed a couple of starts due to injury, but has been unexpectedly sensational, giving up just 2 runs in 5 starts. The big question will be today if he can return to to same early season form. The Red Sox have the edge on relief pitching lately; the Mariners’ bullpen has an inflated 5.62 ERA over their last 10 games.

The Red Sox have been the hottest team in the league in hitting over the last week. Now 3-1 in their last 4 games, they appear to be recovering from their abysmal start. It is hard to say how Ray will pitch, but Wacha has been dominant, and the Sox have an edge in hitting and bullpen. I am on the Red Sox to continue their winning way.  Take the Red Sox to win.

analysis soon

The Astros crushed the Red Sox on Tuesday, bouncing back from a rare loss the night before. One of the league’s top teams at the moment, the Astros are getting great pitching. Garcia, one of the bright lights, has been very sharp in May. He is 2-0 in two starts, giving up just 1 run over 12 innings. His opponent, Sox’ right-hander Pivetta (5.08 ERA) has turned his early season around after a shaky start, but even if Pivetta throws a third quality start in a row, there is still the Sox’ bullpen to deal with. They have not been up to snuff, with a recent ERA of over 5.00, a distant second when compared to the Astros’ relief staff. The Sox were forced to use 6 relievers on Tuesday so may be short-staffed for Wednesday as well.

The Astros have been a fine road team this year, and are hitting for average and power, especially against right handers. The Sox are just 5-9 at home, 10 -17 vs righties, and not the same threat on offense. My bet is on Garcia and the Astros to win on Wednesday

The Giants seem to have the Rockies’ number both at home and away this season, sweeping the Rockies in San Francisco, and now up 2-0 in Denver. Logan Webb (5-1, 3.48 ERA) starts for the Giants on Wednesday. His last start was very good but he seems to generally give up a few more runs than expected this year. At 5-1, he has been a pitcher who gets great run support, a quality not to be underrated. He faces Freeland, the Rockies’ well paid lefty. Freeland (1-4, 4.91 ERA) has been a bit of a loose cannon. His first two and last starts were very poor, with some very good ones mixed in. He will have to be very good today and throw late into the game if the Rockies have any plans on winning . The Rockies’ bullpen has really struggled, giving up lots of the wrong stuff, used heavily, and with an ERA of over 7.00 in their last 5 games.

The Rockies can hit, but not quite as well as SF at the moment, and the Giants’ bullpen is a definite step up from Colorado’s. The Rockies were able to get to Cobb yesterday but the Giants’ bullpen stood fast. Look for a good start from Webb, and who knows what from Freeland, with the Giants running away in the late innings. Take San Francisco on the run line at -1 ½.

The Giants recently swept the Rockies in San Francisco, and now face them in Denver. Right handed starters Cobb and Kuhl face each other again. Cobb’s April was short and sub-par, and his first start in May was horrid, but since then, he looks back to normal. He held the Rockies to just 1 run over 5+ innings last week.

Kuhl started the season very impressively, but was hit hard by the Giants last time out. Kuhl has a career ERA of 4.33 so he might be starting to show his true colors. He won’t get much relief from the relievers, who collectively have been very poor with an ERA of 6.50, and opposing hitters with a strong .273 batting average. The Giants’ pen has been better but nothing special with an ERA of 4.76 L5, but are at least better than the Rockies. The Rockies essentially had a bullpen day on Monday, using 7 pitchers, so may be short-staffed in the bullpen for Tuesday. Both these teams can hit but the Giants rocked the Rockies for 24 runs in three games, then the light weight Royals scored another 26 runs vs. Colorado in the next series.

The Giants are 6-0 vs the Rockies in Colorado. There is no reason to think that the Rockies’ pitching staff will recover over night. Take the Giants to win.

Off a pair of wins vs. the Giants and a rain day, the Cardinals run out Miles Mikolas (1.49 ERA), one of the hottest pitchers in the league. It is not a surprise; a healthy Mikolas has always been an effective pitcher. He has done all that has been asked of him, pitching for very good length, and limiting hits & runs. And had great run support in his last two starts!

His mound opponent, Mets’ right hander Williams (5.73 ERA) is more of a long reliever with just one previous start this year. It was not successful. The Cardinals have hit Williams very hard in previous meetings.

Consider this more of a bullpen day for the Mets. Neither pen has been particularly effective of late, but expect the Mets to dip into theirs far more than the Cardinals. The Cardinals have been swinging very hot bats recently. The Mets’ offense has been solid this year but has slumped recently.

Mikolas will be the difference in this game. Expect a similar long start from him; he has been very consistent. Some of the shine has come off the Mets after their very strong start. Take the Cardinals, a slight underdog, to win today.

Nationals starter Corbin finally connected with a good start, 5 innings of shut-out ball, but April was a very cruel month for him. He gave up 20 runs over 19 innings, so it will take another good start or two to believe his season has turned around. His mound opponent, the immortal Verlander has been as always, one- hitting the Twins over 8 innings in his last start, and giving up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.

The Astros lost to the Nationals on Saturday which makes them 9-1 in their last 10 games. Other than Saturday’s game they have limited opposing teams to 3 runs or less, with a trio of shut-outs thrown in. Outside of last night, relievers have been particularly sharp for the Astros. They are an astounding 12-2 on the road and 10-2 vs left handed starters.

Not so the Nationals. Relievers have an ERA of over 4.2, and while the offense has been mostly solid, they’ve won just 3 of 10 games. They are a dismal 4-14 at home, and 7-15 vs right handers.

Look for the Astros to bounce back today. Take Houston on the run line at – 1 ½.

Padres’ starter Joe Musgrove (2.08) has been the picture of consistency, allowing no more than 2 runs per start in 6 outings. His last two have been 7 innings in length. Like his opponent on Sunday, he has 41 strikeouts.

His opponent, the Braves’ Kyle Wright (3.03) opened the season very well, but struggled his last time out allowing 6 runs in 4+ innings. His hits-allowed total has climbed noticeably in May.

The Braves pulled out a late win vs the Padres on Saturday, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a losing record at home and vs right-handers. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, but have lost a little of their shine lately and are also just 5-5 L10. Both bullpens have struggled in their last 5 games; the Braves’ has given up 8 runs in two games, and Padres’ pen, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00 lately, dropped four runs on Saturday.

Kyle Wright’s rising hit and base on balls count indicates that he is flirting with trouble.  He found it last time out, and he may find it again on Sunday.  Musgrove has much more of a track record, and with him pitching into the seventh inning, allows less bullpen time for the Padres. I am wagering on Musgrove and the underdog Padres tomorrow.

The Yankees have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of their series, and dominated most everyone else they have faced lately. Today’s starter Montgomery has pitched well enough for the Yankees, giving up 2 runs over 5 or 6 innings in his last three starts. He will be backed by NY’s cracking good bullpen. Two runs is pocket change for a Yankees’ squad that has scored 25 runs in the last two games.

The White Sox run out Dallas Keuchel today. Two of his last three starts have been adequate, but opposing batters have huge averages against him this year. Stanton and Donaldson in particular have owned Keuchel over the years. The Yankees have also had great success against Chicago’s bullpen.

Pure and simple, the White Sox lack the horses to run with the New York’s offense, and are at a significant disadvantage in pitching expectations today. Take the Yankees -1 ½ today.

The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off?

Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night.

The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately.  These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday.  I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable.  I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over.

Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.

Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.

While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.

The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.

Two very fine starters face off in Miami on Friday evening. Lopez and Burns have done it all this season, with 6 starts each, low ERAs, and good length. Burns is a strikeout machine, while Lopez has given up just 4 runs. Three of them were in one slightly off-color start, but in his last outing, he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball.

Miami’s bullpen has been better than average, but the Brewers’ pen has given up some big numbers lately. The Brewers, with a good start this year, have now lost 4 of 5, and 2 of 3 of those losses were against the lowly Reds. They have had no success in previous meetings vs Lopez. Miami has won just 2 of 10 games, but 7 of those 8 losses were by just 1 run.

I like Lopez’s and Miami’s chances today, but considering their lack of success in past meetings (1-6) vs the Brewers, will hedge my bet. Take Miami + 1 ½.

The Mets meet the home underdog Nationals in the 2nd game of the series. Mets won the first game, and have played well this season. They are top 5 in League batting and pitching, and are a very good road team. Megill starts for NY. At 4-1, with an ERA of 2.43, he has 3 shutout starts, including one against the Nationals. The verdict on the supporting act, the bullpen, is “pretty good”. They have a 3.60 ERA in their last five games.

Th Nationals can hit, but it is their pitching, both starting and relief, that lets them down. Aaron Sanchez (ERA 8.56) will start on Wednesday. It has been a poor season for Sanchez, and he has passed that statistic of ineffectiveness of a run per inning. I don’t expect sudden success from Sanchez or the Phillies bullpen for that matter.

The Nationals have been poor at home, and especially as a home underdog (1-6!). They are just 6-13 vs right handed starters. Look for the offensively effective Mets to run up the score on Sanchez and Washington’s pen. Take the Mets – 1 ½.

The Angel face the Nationals in LA today. The Angels are a good home team, strong vs. right handed pitching and hitting for a ton of power, if not average. Sandoval, the Angels starter, ran into a bit of trouble after giving up 0 runs in his first three starts. His strikeouts dropped and he allowed 3 runs.

The Nationals are 7-8 on the road, and 4-6 vs left-handers. They are hitting well for average, and their offense has stepped it up lately. Fedde, (4.68 ERA), the starter for the Nationals, appeared to finally find his form giving up just 1 run over 7 innings. The Angels have a decided edge in relief, with a sharp 2.15 ERA last five games. The Nat’s pen has struggled, but has shown better lately.

This game really hinges on which starter has his stuff. I am wagering on Fedde continuing to improve, with Sandoval not quite as good as he was to begin the season. n I think the Nationals will keep it close.  Take the Nationals on the run line +1 1/2

The 5-0 White Sox may have some obstacles to overcome for 6 straight. The primary problem is starter Dallas Keuchal, off to a miserable start, with just one okay outing and a WHIP of 2.33. He faces Boston’s starter Wacha, another veteran, but on a very different path this year. Throwing like it was 2013 again, he has pitched into the 6th with very limited hits and home runs. The White Sox’ bullpen has been decent lately, but likely face a long day on Sunday.

It is hard to describe the Red Sox as light-hitting, but that has been the case this year. However they will have their chances vs. Keuchal on Sunday. Similar to their offense, the Red Sox’ bullpen has struggled for the season, and seen its ERA balloon lately. The Red Sox are really due a breakout and what better time than at home against a starter with an ERA above 8.0. Take the Red Sox to win.

The Dodgers beat up on the Giants in their last two games and now face the Cubs in a double header on Saturday. Anderson starts today. He has pitched well, if not for length (4 to 5 innings per start), but has the support of a very good bullpen behind him.

The Cubs, who have not been effective lately, will start Daniel Norris today. Norris hasn’t started a game in years, and is pitching with an elevated ERA this season. I’m not sure if he is going as a Rays-style opener today, or if more innings are expected of him. The Cubs’ bullpen has not been great lately (4.50+ ERA L5) nor have they been getting length from their starters, so chances are there will be slim pickings in the pen for the 2nd game of the double-header.

The Cubs were up at the top in offense, but have slipped considerably in recent games The Dodgers now have the edge over them in offense.  Take the Dodgers, in a little doubt situation, to win.

Boston has been struggling badly, with some lopsided losses at home. Meanwhile the other Sox, the White ones, appear to have turned things around after some problems of their own. Bullpens have been a key stat. In the last 5 games, Chicago’s relievers have an ERA of 1.53 vs. a whopping 11.0 for Boston!

Pivetta is an unlikely hero for Boston today. At 0-4 and an ERA of 7.84, his past starts have been short and ugly. Opposing batters have been teeing off on him, and walks have been an issue.

Not so for the White Sox’ Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.48 ERA). With 39 strikeouts and just one rough start, he has limited hits and the long ball.

The White Sox’ bats have struggled, but have picked up recently. The Red Sox have worse offensive stats, which is unexpected considering their line-up.

I am on the side of the White today. Take Chicago to win today’s game.

The Rays took the first game against the Mariners in Seattle last night, but face one of the league's hottest starters in Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert was pitcher of the month in April and has given up just 2 ER in five starts.

It looks like the Rays will go with an opener today in Matt Wisler. Nominally a reliever, he has opened two games lately, including one against the Mariners, with some success and will have support of the Rays’ traditionally solid bullpen. With an ERA of 2.80, the pen has been performing well, but used heavily lately. The Mariners’ pen has not been quite as strong, but still has an ERA of 3.20.

The Rays have been very good on the road this season, but do not usually flourish in Seattle historically. They are 11-9 vs right-handed pitching to date. The Mariners are 7-2 at home this year, and 6-1 as a favorite. The Rays have a slight edge on offense, but the Mariners have good power figures too.

The Rays used the same opener tactic when they played against The Mariners and Gilbert in April, and it was not successful, resulting an 8-4 loss. It concerns me that they are so reliant on their pen so early in the season. Gilbert show no sign of cooling off, and the Mariners have the offense and relief to support him. I favor the Mariners tonight. Take Seattle to win.

Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.

The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.

Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.

It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.

It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.

Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.

Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.

Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday

The Braves are not off to a great start. Their offense has not been dominant at all, noticeable for just home runs and strikeouts. They have struggled on the road, and against right-handed pitching to date.

They face a very good right-hander in the Mets’ MeGill (5 starts, 1.93 ERA). He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his worst start, but has otherwise been excellent. He is holding opposing batters to a .186 BA, with just 6 walks.

Anderson starts for the Braves. He struggled early in the season but has bounced back nicely since. Control has sometimes been an issue, with 11 walks to 17 strikouts.

Both pens have performed adequately, so no advantage goes to either team. Where the Mets are showing better is on offense. They are top of the pack in average with very good power. They have also been solid at home and vs. right-handers. The Mets are a small favorite, and my pick to win on Wednesday.

Angels' Lefty starter Sandoval has made a huge  jump from last year.  In three starts, he is yet to give up a run.  He pitched 7 innings of shutout ball in his last start, striking out 9. I wonder if this success is sustainable, but if anything, he has improved each time out, increasing his strikeouts and limiting walks. 

Dylan Cease starts for the Sox.  Cease has not pitched poorly, especially in his first two starts, but he has slipped since then, giving up 6 runs total in his last 2 starts.  Walks have been an issue.

The Angels' pen is actually outperforming the White Sox' at the moment, and there is no contest in offense.  The 15-8 Angels are hitting for average and power with the 2nd best OPA in the league.  The slumping White Sox are well down the list, with the 4th worst OPS.  The Angels have been very successful on the road.  The White Sox are considered a modest favorite.  I have my doubts, and so should you. I am willing to back Sandoval over Cease. Take the Angels to win.

The Pirates knocked off the Padres on Saturday, winning in extra innings, but I don’t favor their chances for two in a row. Musgrove starts for the Padres, and he has been a paragon of consistency this season, giving up just 6 ER in 25 innings with 2 walks and a strikeout an inning on average.

He faces Mitch Keller (6.62 ERA) who has had just 1 quality start in 4 attempts. Opposing batters are hitting close to .300, and he has 7 walks to date. The Pirates’ bullpen has not been much support to date, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00. San Diego’s relievers are just middle of the pack but are still considerably better than the Pirates on average, if not yesterday.

The teams are roughly equal in batting avg. but the Padres are hitting for significantly more power, and have been very good (8-4) against right-handers. San Diego has been dominant on the road, especially as a road favorite (6-1!).

The Padres are a large favorite on Sunday. Take them on the Run line. San Diego – 1 1/2

The Cubs look great on paper (2nd best offense, great bullpen ERA), but at 3-7L10, they aren't winning many games.  Meanwhile the Brewers can't hit, but are still 13-7 for the season.  Starting pitching might have something to do with it.  Saturday's starter Lauer had a poor opening game, but in his last two has been absolutley lights out, allowing just 1 ER over 12 innings.  He had 13 strikeouts in his last start. He is up against the Cubs' Justin Steele (5.40 ERA).  Five starts in , he has been going in the wrong direction.  His length has decreased and runs-against have shot up.  In his last start, he lasted just 3 innings giving up 3 runs, with 4 walks.  And while the Cubs have a low reliever ERA, the Brewers already have 11 saves from their bullpen

That lofty Cubs offense is skewed. When you score 21 runs in a single game this early in the season, it does wonders for your stats..  The Cubs are not scoring runs against good pitchers, and Lauer is a very good starter.  Take the Brewers to win..

It is rookie vs. ace in the Nationals/Giants pitching match-up on Saturday. The Nats’ starter Joan Adon (6.98 ERA) has just one good start in four attempts. He has already lost to the Giants in a five run 4 inning outing. I don’t like his chances against Logan Webb and the Giants, even though Webb has not been at his very bet in his last two efforts. He is still sporting a 2.96 ERA. In all likelihood, Webb will bounce back, but with the best bullpen in the league, the Giants can pull a starter at any time comfortably.

The Nationals’ pen is not up to the same standard, nor is the Giants' offense. The Nationals are just 6-15 to date and a rough 3-11 against right-handed pitching. You don’t often meet a better righty than Webb. The Giants are solid at home, very good vs right-handers and a considerable favorite on Saturday. Take the Giants on the run line: they are good for the extra runs. SF – 1 ½.

The Yankees, winners of 6 straight are on fire.  Their bats have finally woken up, and that bullpen is still lights out.  Nestor Cortez starts on Friday.  He is arguably the Yank's best pitcher at the moment, with electric stuff (2 ER in 15 innings, 25 strikouts).

KC will do well not to be overwhelmed, even at home.  Bubic starts, and only one of his first three appearances has been passible.  He has given up more than a run an inning and has been wild as well, with more walks than strikeouts.  The Royals have neither the firepower nor the relievers to a. outscore the Yankees or b. rescue Bubic.  Take the Yankees on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Twins Dylan Bundy has, quite unexpectedly, pitched as well as anyone in the MLB to date. He is 3-0, with just 1 earned run allowed, 12 strikeouts and 1 walk. One wonders if these stats are sustainable, but they are very impressive for the moment. His opponent, the Rays’ Cory Kluber is a great veteran pitcher who has missed a ton of time to injuries in the last few years. His starts are going in the wrong direction this season. He gave up 4 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings last time out. The Rays, as always seem to have a terrific bullpen that they are not afraid to use. The Twins pen cannot match the Rays’ but may not have to go quite as long.

The Twins are on a tear, winning 6 in a row, and their offense has taken an expected jump lately. The Twins have also been tough on right-handed pitching this season. The Rays are experiencing a bit of a power outage at the moment, with just 20 runs scored over the last 6 games. I have in the past avoided going against the Rays, but I am not sure this year’s team is a match for recent vintages. Take the Twins, the underdog, to win.

The White Sox have been on a long and ugly losing streak, but have their ace on the mound today. Giolito returned from a brief stint on the injury list, and looked fine, lasting just 4 innings, allowing 1 run with 9 strikeouts. He will likely still be on a short leash today. The bullpen was not able able to preserve that start, and has not been very effective, but the real issue for the White Sox has been run support, and it hasn’t improved since the Sox returned home. Chicago managed just 9 runs in 3 games against a poor KC pitching staff in their last series.

The Sox face the Angels’ right-hander Noah Syndergaard today. He has pitched to a 2.12 ERA, and lasted into the 6th in every start. The Angels’ starters have not had good support from their relievers in general, but do get plenty of run support. They are top of the heap in OPS and have hit a ton of home runs to date.

The Angels have won five straight, have been good on the road ,and tough on right-handed pitching. Syndergaard will likely give them more length than Giolito, and they have the ability to easily outscore the Sox. Take the Angels, a small underdog, to steal this one.

The Guardians face the home favorite Angels today. Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland, and was a go-to starter for me last year. He hasn’t pitched poorly this year, but hasn’t quite found the same form as in 2021. I still have hopes for him. He has been delivering solid length. He faces young and promising Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is sporting a poor 6.57 ERA to date. He has yet to show what is expected of him.

The Guardians have the better bullpen at the moment, and while they haven’t the same home run numbers as the Angels, they are hitting for average and power.

Take the Guardians to steal or come close today. Cleveland +1 ½.

Down two games in the series, the Tigers send out lefty Tariq Skubal, up against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. The two young pitchers have similar records to date; both with a poor first start, followed by a pair of fine appearances. Skubal has two shut-out starts; Ober has just given up 1 run in his last two appearances. Once the starters are out, there is quite a difference in relief pitching. Detroit’s pen has been surprisingly good, sporting a very skimpy 2.22 ERA. The Twins’ bullpen ERA in fully two runs worse.

Looking at the offenses, the Twins are hitting for more power, while the Tigers have the advantage in batting average. The Tigers’ home run numbers are very low. The Twins have won 7 straight, including the pair against Detroit. They have been good at home but also have struggled against left-handed pitching. I like Skubal’s and the Tigers’ chances on Thursday, if not to win then at least to keep it close. Take the Tigers + 1 ½.

The Nationals are 6-12 to start, poor at home, dead last in team pitching, and struggling on offense with the 24th ranked OPS. Their starter Eric Fedde was a bright spot with a pair of 5 inning 2 run outings but things fell apart in his 3rd start. He gave up 6 runs in 3+ innings.

The Nationals are up against Marlins’ hot hand Pablo Lopez. His first two starts were very good, but his third one was an absolute gem (7 innings, 0 runs). Lopez may not need much support, but the Marlins’ bullpen has been very good to date. The Marlins are 3-1 in their last 4 games, and hitting well for average if not for power.

Fedde will have to go some way to match Lopez, and the Nationals haven’t had the stuff to win or hold in the late innings. Take the Marlins to steal this one.

The Mets are in St Louis to face the Cardinals. Up 2-0 in the series, they look to bring out the broom on Wednesday. With Carlos Carrasco starting, it is a distinct possibility. He has been a beast so far with 3 strong starts, the last one going 7+ innings with 2 runs allowed. Carrasco has 20 strikeouts to just 2 walks.

Cards pitcher Matz, an ex-Met, will start against his former team. With an ERA over 5, he is still trying to live down that ugly first start, but #2 and 3 were much better. His ex team-mates haven’t done him any favors, and have had good success against him in the past. Both these teams have good support from their relievers this season. St Louis might have the better pen at the moment , but the Mets overall have limited teams to just a .191 batting average.

New York is very good on the road this season, and hitting so much better than last year. They are 4th in team batting average and 1st in runs scored. The Cardinals are just mid-pack in OPS. New York is a slight favorite and rightly so. I favor Carrasco slightly over Matz and think the Mets’ offence will win the day. Take the Mets to win outright.

The Dodgers have great starting pitching to start the season, but none looks much better than Tuesday’s starter Gonsolin. He has given up just 1 run in three starts, pitching to increasing length each outing. He finished 6 innings in his last start.

Diamondbacks starter Davies has had mixed results so far, sandwiching two good efforts around a poor 4 inning, 4 run result. The problems for the Diamondbacks will likely begin when the starter comes out. Their bullpen is third worst in the league with a BP ERA more than 2 runs worse than the Dodgers’. The Diamondbacks are no match for the Dodgers on offense either, with a team batting average of just .189 to date. The Dodgers are strong in average and power, and are also holding the opposing teams to a slim .191 batting average.

LA is a solid favorite, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Dodgers at -1 ½..

The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.

Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.

While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.

These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today

Today’s starters appear to be going in opposite directions. Brubaker is still working down his ERA from his first start, but has improved in runs allowed and length in each of the next two. He is off a couple of mostly lost years, but the Pirates have high expectations of him now that he is healthy. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, with 6 strikeouts in his third start.

Cubs’ lefty Steele started well, with 5 innings of shout-out ball, but has been progressively worse in the following two starts. He gave up 4 runs on 2+ innings last time out.

No one likes to lose 21-0, so the Pirates’ response ought to be strong. They are a significant underdog on Sunday, but there are things to like about their chances. Their starter is trending in the right direction, they’ve been good versus left handed pitching, and they have played better on the road this spring. The Cubs are tops in offense right now, but scoring 21 runs in a game will pad the figures. They have been poor vs lefthanded pitching and at home, especially as a home favorite.

Take the Pirates + 1 1/2.

Cardinals long time starter Wainwright has one sub-par start, but the other two were vintage Wainwright. He limited hits and runs in both and struck out 6 per game. He contrasts with Reds rookie Lodolo. He has had mixed results so far in his first season; 12 strikeouts in 2 games, but an inflated ERA and 2 losses as well. Lodolo looks like he has some up-side, but may take a few games to settle in.

The faltering Reds are 2-12, 0-3 at home, and were shut-out by the Cards on Saturday. Of note, they are just 1-7 against right-handed pitching. They haven’t scored more than two runs in eight games, and it is unlikely that they will break out against Wainwright.

The Cards are off to a very good start with solid starting pitching, a bullpen right up at the top of the heap, and better than average offense from a veteran lineup. Here is an opportunity for the offense to take a rookie pitcher down a couple of pegs. Take the Cardinals to win – 1 ½.

KC’s starter Bubic was batted around and never got out of the 1st inning in Start #1. He was much better the second time around, allowing just 1 run, but was wild, giving up 6 walks. Bubic started poorly last year as well before settling down for a very good first month. I expect more of Bubic in his 3rd start. The Royals were off to a very poor start but have turned things around lately, winning 3 of 4. Their bullpen has not been the best, but the real culprit is their offense. They are the bottom of the barrel in both average and power, and have scored just 31 runs this season.

The Mariners, off to a better start, also have better offense at this point. They too are poor for average, but have been hitting the long ball. Brash, a young right hander wilth a healthy up-side starts for Seattle. He has started the season with a pair of 5+ inning, 2 run efforts, but also was wild in his second start (6 walks).

I favor the Mariners in Saturday’s game. They have been solid at home so far, with the better offense and bull pen. I am betting on another good game from Brash, and a surge from the Mariners' bats in the late innings.. Take the Mariners to take this one.