49ers/Chiefs 6:30: At first glance, after 49ers and Chiefs won their respective games in the championship round, I expected KC to be a 1' or even 2-point favorite in this matchup; after all, KC, after an underachieving regular season with numerous wide receiver mishaps, drops, offensive line holding penalties, cleaned their game up when it really counted - playoffs. SF, on the other hand, ravaged through regular season opponents, for the most part but struggled at times during the playoffs. Therefore, Chiefs should be that slight favorite after second and third glances. KC Spagnuolo not only had KC playing at a high level during the regular season (2nd in points allowed at 17.3 PPG) but kept them playing at a high level during the playoffs, including a virtuoso performance against Baltimore, as I predicted. Look for Spagnuolo to dial up the confusion against SF's Brock Purdy, who is reduced to mediocrity facing zone coverage - which KC doesn't show much but could Sunday. KC secondary has been consistently strong with C Sneed and company. And disruptive forces Chris Jones and Karlaftis have gotten it done rushing the QB and helping against the run. Sure, McCaffery and company will get their yards, but Bolton and, now healthy, Gay make plays when needed. Offensively, Pacheco should get the run game generated against an underachieving run-stop-unit that promises to be better tonight. They haven't fulfilled that promise the last two playoff games and I'm not buying it tonight vs a solid KC offense that proved G Allegretti could step in for All Pro Thuney without missing a beat. And then there is Mahomes - 3-0 vs SF and on the precipice of history as one of 4 other QBs with 3 Super Bowl wins. In addition to Kelce and Rice, Moore is off the IR and should contribute to his success. Chiefs the call.  

Lions/49ers 6:30: Over the last month, a concern for the 49ers has been effectively stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. Last week, they did neither. Aaron Jones ran for 103 yards on 18 carries. 49ers run-stop-unit has allowed 100+ rush yards in 4 of past 5 games. And despite having two of the supposed best bookends in the NFL in Bosa and Young, they were unable to sack Love. Detroit's run game is starting to click with downhill Montgomery and shifty fast Gibbs. And Goff, who has been repeatedly bashed by pundits that he struggles vs the blitz, has completed 75% of his passes in the playoffs with 0 turnovers. Sure, only a couple of explosive plays but TB defense zone blitzed keeping safeties high enabling Goff to set quick on his hot reads to St. Brown and LaPorta. SF defense has been one of the lowest blitzing teams in the NFL primarily counting on their front 4 to get to the QB; however, if it plays out like last week, Goff and company should have a big night. Defensively, Lions' give up explosive plays and that's a concern, especially with all the 49ers' weapons, including Samuel (probable). The good news is the Lions' defense has been opportunistic making plays and forcing turnovers. We'll look for them to hang around. 

Chiefs/Ravens 3:00: Ravens surely seem like world beaters now. I was on them last week vs Houston but I'm fading them here. Sure, KC offense not as explosive as it was the past few years but an improved defense has created a good balance. Like I said last week when I was on KC (+2') vs Buffalo, Spagnuolo does a nice job scheming and preparing his unit. He'll find a way to limit Lamar Jackon's effectiveness.  Offensively, KC won't have their G Thuney (pec) but his replacement - Allegretti has seen plenty of action in the trenches for KC and well respected among his peers. And Pacheco is good to go. As for Mahomes, few teams limit him this time of year; after all, he's 13-3 as a playoff starter. His teammates seem to rally around him in big games as exhibited by Rice two weeks ago and even Valdes-Scantling last week. And he's 3-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be this year's MVP but as Ric Flair said, "To be the man, you got to beat the man." I'll side with Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Chiefs/Bills 6:30: Bills got the better of the Chiefs in Week 14. Not a big surprise considering the Bills are 3-1 in their last 4 regular season games vs KC; however, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs, when it counts most, vs Buffalo. And I get the Bills are ultra hungry, playing good football now, and have the home field advantage. The problem here is some secondary issues with a thinning secondary and a top LB - Bernard (84 tackles, 6' sacks, 3 INTs) hobbling with a sprained ankle. Remember, he was carted off against Pittsburgh, allowing the Steelers to ignite their run game. Sure, the Bills are deep on the defensive front, but the second level and backend are thin. Who better to exploit those weaknesses than Andy Reid. Look for RB Pacheco to set the tone. And we all know by now what Mahomes brings to any football field this time of year. With the Bills' defense allowing a generous 4.6 YPC (28th), KC should lean on their strong offensive line to grind out the yards with Mahomes working his magic on play action with Rice and Kelce. On the other hand, KC defense, which has usually taken a back seat to the offense in production in the Mahomes era, leads the way with the #2 defense in the league in yards and points allowed! And with LB Bolton and DT Chris Jones healthy, they're poised to stop the emerging run game with Cook.  And throw in the post season prep by one of the game's best DCs - Spagnuolo - this time of year, and KC is in good shape to win this one. 

Bucs/Lions 3:00: This time of year, I like teams that are road strong. TB has been that team. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, and that includes trips to current playoff battling Green Bay, San Francisco, Houston and Buffalo. TB has been dismissed by lots of pundits this year, but the Buccaneers believe in themselves. Bucs and Mayfield do their best as a dog. TB has covered 9 of their last 12 dog roles. And guess who's 3-0 ATS in the playoffs? Yes, Baker Mayfield. Goff sports a 2-4 ATS mark in the same role. Sure, Detroit worked TB in Florida in Week Six 20-6. Buccaneers no joke seeking same season revenge against teams above .500 at 8-1 ATS. Bucs' Bowles will be well prepared to bracket St. Brown and dial up a combination of blitzes. Detroit definitely a tough out but they've given up leads throughout Campbell's tenure. And TB OC Canales has done a fine job pushing the right buttons for Mayfield. We'll take the points.

Packers/49ers 8:15: Great job by the Packers last week. I was all over them at +7. Today, I'm fading the youngest team in the NFL. Not necessarily because of their youth but because of inexperience against a well-rounded game plan Shanahan devised. Purdy had plenty of time to study the film on why Green Bay's Cover 6 and Cover 8 gave him trouble in the past. Purdy has multiple weapons, including McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and TE Kittle to work a GB defense that shot their wad last week in Dallas. Hard to reload with their top corner Jaire Alexander laboring on a sore ankle. GB's Love has been awesome, but Aaron Jones is his top ally. I don't see Jones running roughshod over the top tier SF run-stop-unit. And healthy bookends Chase and Bosa along with a now healthier and deep interior will force Love into throwing a tad early into a 49ers' ball hawking secondary (#2 in NFL in INTs). 49ers won past four home playoffs with two of those vs the Packers. And 4 of 5 of those wins were by 14+. We'll lay the wood. 

Texans/Ravens 4:30: Well rested Ravens had an opportunity to sit back, get healthy, reload and thoroughly scout the upstart Texans. Harbaugh has been outstanding with extra rest and should utilize the time wisely.  No question, Stroud is the real deal and came a long way from that opening day loss back on September 10th. Then again, Lamar Jackson has improved in the new system under Monken. Their offense is the perfect complement to their defense. Browns were banged up on both sides of the ball but Texans running into a near fully loaded Ravens' team and that's dangerous. Texans' Stroud won't have Noah Brown nor Tank Dell to throw to. Collins, Woods and TE Schultz a formidable receiving unit; however, Ravens simulated pressure which maintains backend coverage produced 27 sacks this season - Tops in the NFL. Linemen need an extra week to figure that out. Offensively, Dalvin Cook added to an already potent skill unit. And Lively picked up the slack for Andrews (IR). Texans among the worst defenses defending play action. That's a big part of the Ravens' game. We'll look for Baltimore's run game to wear down the Texans over the course of the game. Baltimore the call. 

Eagles/Bucs 8:15: It's no secret that NFL teams want to build winning momentum in December to carry over into January playoffs. TB has (5-1 SU/ATS) while Philadelphia (1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS) has not. Both of these teams collided September 25th with the Eagles running all over TB to secure a rather easy 25-11 win. Eagles then continued to compile wins their ultra talented roster and finishing November with come from behind wins. Then December rolled around with SF stomping them at Lincoln Financial Field. Coaching mishaps that were percolating throughout the season finally were exposed and changes were made; particularly, on defense where injuries mounted and yards and explosive plays were piling up. Former Lions' HC Patricia was upgraded to calling the defense and he changed the terminology and tweaked the system - only to confuse the players more. Eagles now sit in the bottom tier of the NFL in pass defense coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants. Sirianni is 1-5 ATS off a SU division loss. TB's Bowles is 7-3 ATS as a home dog. And as bad as Baker Mayfield is as a favorite, he's dangerous as a dog. We'll ride the winning momentum with TB here and take the points. 

Rams/Lions 8:15: Love the enthusiasm and high energy Campbell and his men bring to the field; however, that very energy and enthusiasm may be their downfall here. Campbell has made many an aggressive play calls, including fake punts and 4th down go-for-it plays. Some worked, some didn't. In a big game like this, it could come back to bite him and his Lions in the rear. McVay is shrewd Super Bowl winning coach who has his men in the thick of things a lot quicker than any of the pundits would have thought. Since the Rams bye week, they're on a 7-1 SU tear including an OT loss at AFC Top Seed Baltimore. The Rams' offensive line has improved dramatically, protecting Stafford and opening holes for RB Keyren Williams (1350 combined rush and receiving yards). Rookie WR Nacua has been amazing and Kupp is nearing his top form. Lions' TE LaPorta laboring with sprained knee. And the Lions' defense has shown vulnerability in the secondary frequently. We'll grab the points with the Rams. 

Packers/Cowboys 4:30: Packers are a dangerous dog playing with house money. They weren't expected to be in the playoffs this season and are one of the youngest teams in the league. Cowboys, on the other hand, are expected to challenge for a Super Bowl this season. Pressure on McCarthy and company to deliver. Yes, they've blown out a number of lightweights at home but exposed some glaring weaknesses in effort against Green Bay's division rival Detroit on December 30th. Green Bay's defense has stepped up its game recently and Jordan Love has been protected well in his banner year (4000+ yards passing, 32 TD/11 INTs). And with a healthy Aaron Jones, this offense clicks. GB has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series. Take the TD with GB 

Dolphins/Chiefs 8:15: Back in early November, KC jumped all over Miami early but let them back in the game in the 2nd half before finally closing it out. Today, Chiefs should be able to choke them out. Fair weathered Dolphins might have difficulty acclimating to the single digit temp in KC Saturday evening. And with a decimated linebacker corps consisting of Van Ginkel, Chubb, Baker and Phillips, wouldn't be surprised if Chiefs' HC utilizes RBs Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire to work the Dolphins not only between tackles but on the perimeter. Ingram and newly acquired Justin Houston (last played Week 8 w/ Carolina) and edge rusher Bruce Irvin all had solid careers but have lost a step. And only so much DC Fangio can do to get these guys into position. On the other hand, KC's Spagnuolo has done a bang-up job with KC's defense this season while the offense remained stagnant. Spagnuolo always dangerous dialing up rock-solid playoff schemes. And Tua not the greatest cold weather QB. We'll look for KC to deliver here. 

Packers/Bears 4:25: Chicago sputtered out of the gate this season with an underwhelming performance against GB to send them spiraling on an 0-4 season start. Since then, the Bears have righted the ship to come down the stretch on a 6-1-1 ATS tear. Their defense has improved dramatically. They lead the NFL in takeaways, Montez Sweat's mid-season acquisition has added a pass rush, and they are #1 against the run. Offensively, Justin Fields has given the Bears' faithful a possible reason to keep him for next year. Fields is 0-5 SU vs GB but don't count him or the Bears out here. GB was in this spot (clinch a playoff berth) last year but succumbed to another divisional foe - Lions. Look for the hungry Bears to be the Grinch this year. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 4:25: Seahawks were in a similar situation last season and delivered. Today, they'll need to beat the Cardinals get help from Chicago. We'll look for Pete Carroll to deliver. Seahawks have won 5 of the last 6 in this series. Cardinals coming off a huge upset over the Eagles. Kyler Murray just 4-14 SU/ATS vs winning foes with a win percentage of .705 or less. Grab the hungry Seahawks. 

Jets/Patriots 1:00: Patriots have owned the Jets in the Belichick era, including 10 straight victories. And career backups - such as Siemian- will rarely pick apart a Belichick coached defense. Moreover, Belichick is money at home vs an opponent off a SU loss at 19-7 ATS. And I can't trust Saleh who is 3-10 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU loss. We'll look for the Patriots to sweep this series. 

Jaguars/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it appears that the Titans are down and out before this game even starts. Jacksonville will need this game to claim control of the AFC South en route to the playoffs while the beat-up Titans will be an afterthought. Titans, however, still have players looking to add bonuses or improve market value for next year. Hopkins, Henry and Burks, to name a few, give QB Tannehill viable weaponry against a Jaguar defense that allows 245 YPG through the air and have trouble sacking (25th) the QB. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Lawrence is probably good to go. Vrabel no easy out vs division opponents, especially at home where the Titans are 4-2-1 ATS. And keep in mind that the 2 losses both went to OT and no loss was more than a field goal. Vrabel a sweet 15-7 SU/14-8 ATS with same season revenge. Take the points with Tennessee. 

Texans/Colts 8:15: Playoff spot on the line here and I like the Texans. Stroud, who came back strong last week following a concussion, has shown composure all season, including on the road.  He has a couple of his top targets healthy in Collins and TE Schultz. And RB Singletary should be able to penetrate a sluggish Colts' run-stop-unit that allows 128 YPG (27th) to help the play action game open up. On the other hand, Minshew has been a solid backup since rookie Richardson was lost for the season Week 5, including that Week 2 win at Houston when he relieved Richardson after the first quarter. But Houston's secondary is now at full health with Stingley back in the fray. That ball hawking Houston secondary is a difference maker in a defense that allows 20.9 PPG (13th). Moreover, their run-stop-unit allows just 3.3 YPC (#2) and 88.5 YPG (4th). Limiting the run game and creating turnovers has been a constant in Ryans' defense this season. We'll look for the Texans to deliver. 

Packers/Vikings 8:20: QB Cousins injured in the October 29th Vikings' win in Green Bay. It's been a QB carousel since. Kevin O'Connell has done a good job in keeping them competitive. Jaren Hall will be the featured QB tonight. He is well coached and has a good supporting cast of weaponry to deliver tonight. And fortunately, Vikings' DC Flores has done some masterful things with the Vikings' defense. Packers are one of the youngest teams in the league and often play like it. Defensively, they're getting worse as the season progresses. We'll look for the Vikings to find a way to sweep this series tonight. 

Dolphins/Ravens 1:00: Ravens are relatively healthy at this point of the season and that's significant. Dolphins, on the other hand, have some key contributors banged up. Waddle (1,014 yards receiving), who creates a near impossible to cover one-two-punch with Tyreek Hill on the field together, won't play. Not only that, Mostert (1, 012 rush yards w/ 18 TDs) has lingering knee and ankle injuries. And along the front line, Miami is dealing with injuries. Defensively, top corner Ramsey (knee) is questionable. Ravens, which have the league's #1 scoring defense, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark in December vs non-division opponents. Ravens the call. 

Saints/Tampa Bay 1:00: Seems like a layup for the Buccaneers from the way they've been playing; after all, they're on a 4-0 run and Baker Mayfield has been on fire. But Saints should be dangerous in this spot. They're eager to avenge October 1st home 26-9 home loss. And they're a strong 10-2 SU/ATS in their last dozen division games seeking same season revenge. And as good as Mayfield has been playing, he can't be trusted as a favorite: 11-23-2 ATS, including 2-10 ATS in his last 12. Saints' defense still solid, and Carr and company have improved in the red zone since that last meeting. 

Falcons/Bears 1:00: Bears have shown marked improvement since September. They've gone on a 7-3-2 ATS run. What I'm impressed about is their defense, which ranks #1 against the run and have a ball hawking secondary. With the mid-season acquisition of DE Montez Sweat, they've bolstered their pass rush. Atlanta has been underachieving and inconsistent on the offensive end virtually all season. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in this series and we'll look for the Bears to deliver here. 

Lions/Cowboys 8:15: Cowboys have been offensively prolific at home this season posting 30 or more points in all 7 of their games in Arlington. Detroit's defense has been vulnerable on the road. Throw out the dominant 6 points they allowed at Tampa Bay October 15th, and they've allowed 28 PPG. The Lions' defense also is in the bottom tier in allowing explosive plays. Prescott sports a 20:2 TD:INT ratio at home on 74% completions. Cee Dee Lamb has been virtually unstoppable while Cooks adds to the fire. And TE Ferguson is that go-to 3rd down guy. On the other hand, the Lions sport the NFL's 3rd ranked offense and close with 27.5 PPG. Cowboys show vulnerability to the run lately and Parsons has been neutralized over his last 3 games. Cowboys are 7-0 O/U as a non-division home favorite of less than 6 points when the O/U is set below 56 points. We'll go "over" here. 

Jets/Browns 8:15: Browns' fans haven't been this excited about a QB since Bernie Kosar was under center. Joe Flacco flashing some old magic to put the Browns in the playoff hunt. He's surely not going to tell the media he's upset about the Jets not resigning him, especially after Rodgers went down; however, he's well aware of the Jets' backend tendencies and blitzes since he practiced with that defense all last season. Sure, Flacco has been sacked repeatedly and throwing more interceptions than he should; however, he's got the veteran skill to shake it off and come back to find Cooper or TE Njoku for TDs. And Jerome Ford has been a reliable back. Most importantly, Flacco won't have to single handedly win this game. Browns have the #1 defense in terms of yards allowed, yards per play allowed, and against the pass. They also have the highest interception rate in the league. Throw in Myles Garrett (13 of 44 team sacks) on interception prone career backup Siemian, and Cleveland should deliver easily. Browns 6-1 ATS on Thursday nights while the Jets a disturbing 0-5 ATS in the same role. Browns the call. 

Ravens/49ers 8:15: 49ers a hot team but a bit overpriced here. Ravens come into this game with a lethal run game (164 YPG) behind a strong offensive line. SF's defensive line is thin which is a concern. Armstead is out and Hargrave is battling a hamstring issue. And their strongside outside backer - Burks is out. Gus the Bus and Lamar Jackson can cover lots of grass. Moreover, TE Lively is somewhat filling the void for Mark Andrews. And versatile Zay Flowers is living up to his #! draft choice billing while Beckham Jr. has a few miles left. Defensively, Ravens relatively healthy and balanced. Sure, SF is loaded with offensive weaponry in a dynamic Shannahan scheme. But Baltimore is well coached, travel well, and Lamar Jackson has been money vs NFC teams at 19-1! Moreover, he's 11-1 ATS as a dog! Throw in the fact that 7 straight MNF dogs have covered, and you got to take the points here. 

Cowboys/Dolphins 4:25: Cowboys have yet to prove they can win on the road vs a winning team. I don't believe it comes here. Dolphins have been dominant at home. Except for Tennessee sneaking up on them and out scheming them December 11th on MNF, the Dolphins have played well at home. This will be the first winning team they've played at home and should be well prepared. Dallas' defense exposed last week on the ground. Dolphins have a solid run game, Achane is healthy again, and Tyreek Hill (ankle) should be good to go. Defensively, Dolphins' DC Fangio has a history against McCarthy. Fangio was the DC for the Bears when McCarthy was running the Packers, and they didn't like each other. We'll look for the Dolphins' defense to be well prepared. Home team 29-16 in Tua's starts with Dolphins. Dolphins the call.  

Colts/Falcons 1:00: Colts have won 5 of the last 6 games SU/ATS to be right in the hunt of the AFC South. Meanwhile, Falcons lost 5 of their last 7 SU/ATS to fall to 3rd place in the NFC South. We'll take the road team here. Minshew has been solid directing the offense since Richardson went down. He's guided the Colts to wins in 3 of their last 4 road games. Falcons not getting it done offensively. Immense talent but QB play erratic. Lame duck Falcons' HC Smith will go back to Heinicke to run the offense. Colts won't have Pittman Jr. (concussion) but do get back RB Jonathan Taylor to fuel the run game. We'll grab the points with Indy. 

Lions/Vikings 1:00: Lions could clinch the division with a win here, but it shouldn't be easy. Vikings have a tough to figure out defense under Flores. They're 5th in the league against the run and disruptive vs the pass with Danielle Hunter (15' sacks) and company. Goff is at his best when the run game is cooking, and I don't see the Lions running all over Minnesota in Minneapolis. On the other hand, the Vikings' offensive line has held up well and should give QB Mullens time to operate. Chandler and Mattison have been serviceable running backs (4 YPC) while Mullens will have Addison, Jefferson, TE Hockenson at his disposal. I like how O'Connell keeps them in games. Vikings 9-1 ATS at home off a SU loss vs greater than .500 opponent. Take the points.

Bills/Chargers 8:00: McDermott and the Bills are good in this spot. 8-1-1 off blowout wins under McDermott. And been known to defeat inferior teams off a SU/ATS loss to the tune of 8-2 ATS. Bills know their season hangs in the balance with no margin for a loss. We'll look for Buffalo to have laser focus here. Chargers have cashed in their chips for the season. QB Easton Stick won't have Keenan Allen (heel) again. Bills' defense was sound vs the explosive Cowboys, should be lights out vs sputtering Chargers. Offensively, Bills should stick to hitching their wagon to James Cook (ill but probable) who decimated the Cowboys' defense for 179 yards rushing. Play action should work magic vs a worn-out Chargers' secondary. And to make matters worse, Chargers released their team captain a day ago - DT Joseph-Day who started all 13 games for them. Chargers' interim HC Giff Smith will need more than a prayer and Knute Rockne speech to hang in this game. Buffalo the call. 

Saints/Rams 8:15: One of the keys to the Rams' successful offense this season is the marked improvement in their offensive line which is on its way to produce a 1000+ yard rusher (Kyren Williams) and protect QB Stafford. Saints' defense has been staunch over last few weeks but McVay's offense well balanced. Rams have covered 4 straight including, in the process of, putting up good offensive numbers against top tier defenses Baltimore and Cleveland.  Rams' defense giving up points; however, they are healthy and have given up just 17.6 PPG over their last 5 at SoFi Stadium. Can't trust Dennis Allen who is just 2-16 ATS in his last 18 off a SU/ATS win, and he's 2-9 ATS off a double-digit ATS win. Saints are 0-7-2 ATS on Thursday Night Football. Rams the call. 

Saints/Rams 8:15: Both of these teams' coaching staffs have emphasized closing in the red zone; particularly, New Orleans. Saints have scored TDs in 9 of its last 10 trips to the red zone. Rams' defense has been yielding this year and vulnerable in spots. And Derek Carr has main weapon Olave back for this one. On the other hand, Rams' well-balanced offense should give Saints' defense trouble. Saints have been able to stall out one dimensional offensive teams like NY and Carolina the last few weeks; however, Rams have too much weaponry to limit, especially with top corner Lattimore (IR) still out. Rams are 11-2 O/U in 2nd of back-to-back home games vs teams above .333. Over the call.

Eagles/Seahawks 8:15: Pete Carroll is beside himself knowing his underachieving team is on a 4 game slide. Both Seahawks' coordinators are on thin ice but Carroll has ways of figuring things out. Remember, although 0-4 SU, the Seahawks are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. And Carroll is an electric 22-5 ATS off back-to-back losses, including 13-0 ATS at home! Eagles have their own problems. They've been smacked down the last few weeks out schemed by McCarthy and Shannahan; consequently, they've demoted DC Desai to the upstairs booth while Matt Pattricia (remember that guy?) will be on the sidelines calling signals. As a Seahawks' backer, I'll take that tradeoff! Seahawks do get back Kenneth Walker III to fuel the run game. QB Geno Smith (groin) most likely will sit out but Drew Lock should be able to connect with the plethora of Seattle weapons against the Eagles' bottom tier of the league secondary. Seattle a sweet 9-1 ATS as a home dog on MNF. Take the points!

Cowboys/Bills 4:25: Cowboys appear to be one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But they still need validation going outside their division on the road to take on a top tier team. And when the Cowboys hit the road off a blowout win, they've gone 1-3 ATS. Only win was against lowly Carolina. Buffalo has surely not lived up to their preseason hype but they're starting to find their mojo winning 2 of their last 3. Margin of error is slim for Buffalo now to get to the playoffs. With losing not an option here, look for the Bills to come out firing on all cylinders at home. 

Commanders/Rams 4:05: Rams still in the playoff hunt while Washington will have to wait till next year. Rams lost a tight one in OT to Baltimore last week. Rams have covered 3 straight and offensively torched two of the best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. They hung 36 on Cleveland and followed up with 31 on Baltimore. Today, they face the worst defense in the NFL. Commanders' fired DC Jack Del Rio after the 45-10 demolition to Dallas. And then followed up by allowing Miami another 45. Commanders are allowing an average of 30 PPG this season. Commanders got rid of their two best edge rushers - Sweat (Chicago) and Young (SF) and struggle to fill those edge voids. Stafford has been well protected this season [1.8 sacks per game (4th)]. And he has a plethora of weapons (Nacua, Kupp, Atwell, Higbee) including a run game with versatile Kyren Williams (800 yards/5 YPC). Hard to believe Commanders can trade points. Howell has shown promise but heavily under duress (4.5 sacks per game - 30th) that lead to INTs (16). Rams' DC Morris is licking his chops despite the loss of Donald (groin). Rams the call. 

Texans/Titans 1:00: Titans coming off a short week, but we'll still grab them in this spot. With the win on MNF, they're still mathematically alive for the playoffs. Levis, with 7 NFL starts under his belt, proved he can lead the offense effectively. Defensively, Texans won't have disrupting edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) which should give Levis a split second more time to find receivers, particularly Hopkins. Offensively, Texans without their star QB Stroud (concussion), drops off offensive production dramatically vs a solid scheming defense of Tennessee. Backups Davis Mills (5-20-1 as a starter) or veteran Keenum won't have an easy time without key receivers Dell and Collins. And not having RT Fant (hip) won't help with blitz aggressive Titans' defense. We'll lay a field goal here. 

Chiefs/Patriots 1:00: Patriots unlikely to follow up with a strong offensive outing here. Patriots' offense exploited holes in the Steelers' second level defense to get the run game going. Hard to imagine RB Elliot running rampant through the much-improved KC run stop unit. And DC Spagnuolo will surely dial up a number of exotic blitzes and coverages to confuse Zappe. Patriots' offensive weaponry limited, at best. On the other hand, KC offense overdue to get untracked. We'll look for a strong showing here. 

Giants/Saints 1:00: Road team in this series is 3-0-1 ATS. Saints coming off an easy win over their division tomato can - Carolina. Problem is, Dennis Allen is a money burning 1-15 ATS off a SU/ATS win. And the Saints are just 1-5 ATS at home. Giants gained more confidence Monday by their come from behind win over Green Bay. QB Devito, not sacked last week, has not thrown an interception in 87 attempts. He has another weapon returning today in TE Waller (Off IR). Defensively, DC Martindale gradually getting his men on the same page. We'll take the points here. 

Broncos/Lions 8:15: Momentum is a dangerous thing. Detroit is spiraling downward while the Broncos have ascended into the playoff picture. Lions' defense has allowed 30 PPG over last 5 games. They now face a non-explosive, but efficient Broncos' offense led by a resurgent Russell Wilson and top target WR Sutton. HC Payton uses RBs Williams/Perine and McLaughlin well to keep the offense balanced. Offensively, Detroit stuck in neutral with 6 turnovers in their division games. Broncos' defense has forced 18 turnovers during their 6-1 run. Broncos' defense has not allowed more than 22 points in a game over their last 8. During that span, they've allowed just 16 PPG. HC Payton an impressive 11-5 ATS as a road dog, and 16-5 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS win. Denver the call. 

Chargers/Raiders 8:15: Both teams struggling. Chargers on a 1-4 slide while Raiders have lost 3 straight. Both operating with backup QBs but I'll give the edge to the Chargers here. Easton Stick has some skill. He did well in the preseason to earn the backup role and he's been around for years as an understudy of Rivers and Herbert. He won't have top receiver Keenan Allen (out), but Joshua Palmer (knee) is back in action to add to a pretty talented cast - Johnston, TE Everett and RBs Kelley and Ekeler. And the Chargers' defense does not look good on paper but has shown improvement in the second half of the season. Chargers grinded out a 24-17 win in Week 4. We''ll look for them to follow up with a strong effort here. Raiders a money burning 1-15 ATS as a home favorite of less than 4 points vs a less than .500 division opponent. And on TNF, Raiders a dud at 1-6 ATS as a favorite. LAC, on the other hand, 8-0 ATS after scoring less than 10 points. On TNF, Chargers 5-2 ATS as a road dog. Chargers the call. 

Titans/Dolphins 8:15: Last time these teams played - 01/02/2022 - the Titans gave the Dolphins a 34-3 waxing in Nashville; of course, that was under the old Dolphins regime with Flores. Tua now has a bit more help in his supporting cast, including a run game and offensive minded coach in McDaniel. And throw in an explosive receiver in Hill that is on record pace in season receiving yards. Titans' secondary has had trouble defending the pass all season. And without their top lineman - Simmons, more tough sledding awaits in the secondary. Defensively, Dolphins are making gradual progress as the season unfolds. Sacks are mounting, run stop unit improving, and as Ramsey got healthy, it seems to be finally clicking under DC Fangio. Now that the Dolphins have film on Levis, after a few games under his belt, surely Fangio will install some exotic blitz/coverages to confuse the rookie. Dolphins have been virtually unstoppable all season at home while Titans have struggled bad on the road. We'll lay the wood. 

Denver/LAC 4:25: Last week, Denver came one play away from winning its sixth game in a row. Denver is relatively healthy and still a dangerous team. Their defense has not allowed more than 22 points over the last 7 games. And Russell Wilson's resurgence gives Denver a fighting chance here. Chargers' defense has been solid over the last few games, but Payton (11-5 ATS as a road dog) should find a way to put points on the board. Denver the call. 

LAR/Baltimore 1:00: Rams playing some good ball, but this will be a stretch for them. The well rested Ravens are dangerous off a bye at 12-3 ATS. Rams lost both of their games to teams off a bye week (Dallas and Pittsburgh). And Lamar Jackson has been money against NFC teams at 18-1, including 6-0 vs the NFC West. Rams have a few key offensive guys banged up including rookie sensation Nacua (AC sprain) and TE Higbee (neck -doubtful). Ravens the call.  

Jaguars/Browns 1:00: Jaguars coming off a short week with a few key injuries. Now they fly into cold and windy Cleveland. Browns hungry to get back in the win column off two straight losses. Flacco has a game under his belt. He did a decent job last week in Los Angeles. He should light up a Jacksonville secondary that was scorched Monday by backup Jake Browning. Browns have a solid offensive line that can establish a run game. On the other hand, can't see Jaguars' QB Lawrence (ankle) at his most fleet footed against Myles Garrett and company. Browns the call. 

Houston/New York 1:00: Worth laying a field goal on the road with a confident Texans' team. The Jets are the complete antithesis of confident with shaky Zach Wilson back at the helm. Texans' ball hawking secondary, with Stingley now healthy, should add to their takeaways. Offensively, C.J. Stroud is playing at an elite level. He will miss Tank Dell and TE Schultz; however, he also has good chemistry with Collins. Texans do have depth with veteran Woods and the talented young Metchie and Hutchinson who could step up. We'll tread lightly with Houston. 

Bucs/Falcons 1:00: All seams well with Atlanta. They're sitting on top of the lackluster NFC South. They've won two straight and going for the season series sweep here. I'm not buying into it. They're coming off a physical battle in NY and a bit banged up. QB Ridder has been sacked 28 times, 6 fumbles and 8 INTs. Division opponent - TB has a good run stop unit and rookie Diaby has 5 sacks in the last 6 games. TB has a decent secondary that overachieves with a healthy FS Winfield Jr. Offensively, QB Mayfield is at his best as an underdog. And as long as perennial All Pro Mike Evans is healthy, there is a chance to win. Falcons' HC Arthur Smith can't be trusted here. he's 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent with revenge. TB the call. 

Patriots/Steelers 8:15: Similar defenses - both playing well. Patriots' defense has been tight over the last three weeks (10, 10, 6 ppg respectively). Steelers defense pretty solid all season (6th in scoring allowed). The deciding factor should be the offense. Both are near inept but Pittsburgh has more weapons TE Freiermuth, WR Pickens, WR Johnson, WR Allen Robinson at Mitch Trubisky's disposal. And the Steelers need to utilize RB Jaylen Warren more. He's averaging 5.9 YPC, and 38 receptions. Sure, G Seumalo (shoulder) is a loss; however, Nate Herbig is a veteran guy who can play both G and T well enough. As for New England, Zappe sports a QBR of 19. He won't have the engine of their jalopy offense - RB Stevenson (out). And Elliot's best years are behind him. The Patriots' offensive line is average at best. And the Patriots' receivers rarely get separation from defensive backs. And when they do, it usually results in a dropped ball or penalty. Steelers should be able to make more plays. And technically, Steelers an awesome 17-0 ATS at home after score less than 14 points vs a less than .500 foe. Pittsburgh the call. 

Patriots/Steelers 8:15: Plummeting 'total' pretty much dictates the number of points expected here. Both offenses are abysmal. Defenses, however, are solid. Both veteran coaches know the value of maintaining drives, utilizing run game and burning clock without turnovers. We'll look for the punters to work overtime tonight. "Under" the call.  

Cincinnati/Jacksonville 8:15: Bengals can go only as far as Joe Burrow can take them. And since he's on IR (wrist), it doesn't bode well for the Bengals. Jake Browning sports a poor 29.2 QBR and has been sacked 7 times over the last two games. And I don't see the run game (75.8 YPG -32nd in league) improving as teams will sneak an extra player in the box on run blitzes forcing inexperienced Browning to throw. Cincy 0-15 SU on the Prime Time Road and 0-9 SU on MNF road. Sure, he probably will have Tee Higgins back but not sure he can get him the ball. Jax will surely dial up plenty of blitzes to alter Browning's throws. Defensively, Bengals are allowing a league high 6.4 yards per play. With a multitude of three and outs tonight, that number may increase. We'll look for a rolling Jacksonville team to stay hot. 

49ers/Eagles 4:25: Eagles coming off another come from behind win. A game in which Buffalo was firmly in control but couldn't finish. Eagles are superbly talented and made big time plays when needed. Today, look for the 49ers, who possess near equal talent, to schematically outclass the Eagles. SF, coming off a Thursday Night game (11/23), had a few extra prep and rest days. And this time a year, that helps. SF, of course, looking to avenge last year's NFC Championship loss. SF is healthy on both sides of the ball, including QB Brock Purdy, who went down (shoulder) in that January loss. Eagles, however, won't have leading tackler - LB Zach Cunningham. Offensively, QB Hurts misses TE Goedert (forearm) who was that short yardage go-to-guy on third down. Eagles have been unable to replace his production. It should bite them in the ass today vs the ball hawking #1 scoring defense in the NFL. Take SF

Colts/Titans 1:00; Revenge game for Tennessee from 10/8. Titans should have vertical threat Burks (concussion) back in action; consequently, QB Levis will have another deep threat to go to. Meanwhile, Colts' secondary thinned with JuJu Brents (quad) out. Titans a sweet 15-5 SU / 14-6 ATS with same season division revenge. Vrabel 12-4 ATS as a dog with revenge. Titans 4-0 at Nissan Stadium and we'll look for them to deliver here. 

Broncos/Texans 1:00: On paper, Broncos at the bottom tier of the league defensively; however, a closer look reveals a dramatic turnaround during their five-game winning streak. Over that 5-game run, Broncos' defense allowed just 16 PPG - rising to the top tier of the league. Offensively, a resurgent Russell Wilson actually looking like he did in the Seahawks' Super Bowl years. He sports a superb 20/4 TD/INT ratio. And the offensive line is protecting him while opening up holes in the run game (4.4 YPC). On the other hand, Houston is having a great year led by rookie C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been lighting up defenses all year but, shuffling of the offensive line, and nagging injuries to key receivers - Tank Dell (calf) and TE Shultz (out) could impact his effectiveness today against the revamped Broncos' defense. Sean Payton 11-2 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins, and 10-4 as a road dog. Broncos the call.  

Chargers/Patriots 1:00: Heavy action on Chargers but I don't believe it's warranted. After all, they've lost three straight including a physical battle at home vs Baltimore last week. Teams coming off Baltimore are usually banged up and sluggish going into the next game. Chargers have to travel cross country into cold and rainy Foxborough. Herbert is 0-2 vs Belichick and his top go-to receiver - Keenan Allen is laboring with a quad injury. No doubt, Patriots are pathetic offensively. Mac Jones is benched, and Zappe will start. That's surely not a vote of confidence in New England but fortunately, they face a defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed. Patriots put in a package for elusive QB Malik Cunningham by activating him off practice squad. Perhaps a good wrinkle against a leaky Chargers' run stop unit that gets up the field fast to sack the QB. Defensively, Patriots still sound and should make this an ugly game for NE to deliver. Belichick is a sweet 19-8 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Also, a strong 14-2 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Value with the Patriots!

Seahawks/Cowboys 8:15: It appears that both teams are heading in opposite directions with the Seahawks dropping three of their last four including two straight; meanwhile, Cowboys blasted three lightweights - Giants, Panthers and Commanders. Seattle's offense is stuck in neutral, defense underachieving badly under DC Hurtt. On the other hand, Cowboys' offense #1 in scoring, running on all cylinders, and defensively stifling under DC Quinn. But don't count Pete Carroll out; after all, he's an amazing 21-5 SU/20-5-1 ATS coming off consecutive losses. He's 16=6 as a .500 or greater team off a division opponent with back-to-back wins. And btw, Carroll taught Quinn everything he knows about defense. Quinn worked for Carroll back in the Legion of Boom era. And Seattle has too much talent defensively to underachieve. The secondary is loaded with Diggs, Woolen, Adams, Witherspoon - are you kidding me? Brooks and Wagner are as talented as they come at the second level and throw in recently acquired DE Leonard Williams to anchor the front. Offensively is where the Seahawks must improve, especially on 3rd down, which is Dallas' defensive strength. Seattle OC Waldron won't have RB Walker (oblique) so passing on early downs to the talented Seahawks' receiving corps will be paramount to avoid 3rd and long. Blitz pickup most definitely the focal point of practice for the week. Seattle has covered 4 straight in this series and this game is crucial for them to stay in the Wild Card race. Seattle the call.   

Bears/Vikings 8:15: Minnesota has been a tremendous spread winning team this season on a 7-1 ATS tear, including 6 straight; however, most of those as a dog. Kevin O'Connell has done a remarkable job leading this team. And DC Flores has been a key contributor with a defense that's getting it done. Offensively, Vikings should continue to go conservative with Dobbs and utilize hard running RB Mattison with play action. No Justin Jefferson (IR). He'll probably be back after the break. But Addison, Osborn and Powell have stepped up well. And Hockenson is that go-to-guy for that needed medium yardage third down. Meanwhile, offensive line has held up well. On the other hand, Bears no pushover. They've gotten better as the season progressed, especially defensively. Fields got injured in the first matchup but he's back tonight. He won't have RB Foreman (out) and that's a significant loss. Foreman is that power back that can grind out those tough yards. Versatile Herbert should get the bulk of the work. I like what the Vikings' do defensively and Flores should continue to make the right calls. This one could be tight so I would suggest on the money line. O'Connell finds ways of winning those tight games while Eberflus and the Bears find ways to lose. 

Bears/Vikings 8:15: I projected about 43 to 43' on this 'total' so we get some value. Limiting turnovers and ball control emphasized on both teams. Vikings playing with Dobbs who is 2-1 O/U. Vikings 3-8 O/U for the season. Defense of Vikings has improved dramatically under DC Flores this season. Fields and explosive WR Moore with versatile RB Herbert will be focal points. On the other hand, liked how the Bears' defense improved since that October 5th game at Washington. They've gone 2-4 O/U since. We'll look for a physical battle with limited explosive plays. "Under" the call.

Ravens/Chargers 8:20: Physical over finesse. Ravens bring to LA the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They lead the league in sacks and yards per play allowed (4.5). Sure, Herbert is an elite QB but he can only do so much. The receiving corps is thinning (Williams & Palmer on IR) and Allen, at his age, only has so much juice, and Quentin Johnston won't sneak up on the well-disciplined Ravens' secondary after stepping up his game recently. Chargers' OC Moore wanted to establish a run game early in the season, but since the Chargers are 18th in the NFL running the football, they're becoming more pass happy quickly. And they surely won't establish the ground game vs the Ravens with Roquan Smith manning the middle. On the defensive side of the ball, Chargers are 32nd vs the pass and 31st in allowing yards. Ravens' offense is rolling this year with Jackson. Sure, TE Andrews is out but look for Likely to fill some of the void. And the punishing ground game of Gus Edwards and Hill combined with the speed of Keaton Mitchell too much for the Bosa (IR) less Chargers. And yes, Lamar Jackson is 13-5 SU/15-2-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of fewer than 3 points. Ravens the call. 

Bills/Eagles 4:25: Good spot of the Bills to be in. After underachieving since that big win at home vs Miami back on October 1st, the Bills ended their 6 game ATS slide with a resounding win last week vs the Jets. Bills should follow up strong here; after all, in November, they're 21-5 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. McDermott is 7-1 ATS vs non-division opponent off a SU dog win. I got lucky with the Eagles (+2') on Monday. Chiefs defeated themselves with multiple dropped balls. Eagles' defense in the lower tier in pass defense in multiple categories. They do have that fierce pass rush, but Josh Allen and company are #1 in sacks allowed. Look for Diggs, Davis and TE Kincaid to stay fed. And RB Cook is averaging a healthy 5 YPC. Eagles' offense do have super receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but a glaring void at TE without Goedert (IR). That void has yet to be filled and that was Hurts go to guy on 3rd and medium. Bills' defense getting a bit healthier now with some dudes back, including S Micah Hyde. Take Buffalo

Patriots/Giants 1:00: Patriots had an extra week to prepare and surely Belichick has devised a scheme to fluster rookie QB Devito after his stellar performance vs Washington. Belichick has made many rookie QBs miserable in his career. On the other hand, Belichick doesn't know who he's starting today. And that's no threat to the Giants' defensive coordinator Martindale. Add Jones, Zappe and Grier's QBR together and it barely equals Belichick's shoe size. With the turnover potential great here, conservative run oriented football with limited explosive play would be the consensus. Patriots 2-14 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than a point. "Under" the call. 

Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Jacksonville has not found a way to beat their division rival. They're 1-9 SU in this series including a lopsided loss September 24th. Dell, Collins and TE Schultz are loving playing with rookie Stroud who outgunned his counterpart - Lawrence in the first matchup. And defensive savvy HC Ryans is yielding in his defensive philosophy but tighten heavy in the red zone and limit explosive plays. Got to stay on Houston which has been a cash cow as a dog at 5-1 ATS. 

Dolphins/Jets 3:00: Jets will rely on run game with Breece Hall (4.7 YPC) to ignite their pedestrian offense. Surely Saleh won't put the game in the hands of perennial backup QB Tim Boyle (3 TDs/9 INTs in career). Miami defense now showing late season signs of improvement now that Ramsey is in the fold and players in tune with DC Fangio system. On the other hand, Jets' defense keeps them in games. They'll have their hands full with the #1 offense in the NFL; however, Miami offensive line banged up across the board and the Jets can rush the passer. They also have the quality secondary personnel to limit explosive plays. Miami 1-3 O/U on road. Jets on an 0-5 O/U run. This series in New York is 1-4 O/U. "Under" 

49ers/Seahawks 8:20: Heavy action on SF as the 49ers have gotten fully loaded with their offensive weaponry and Purdy is back in rhythm. Defensively, Chase Young surely adds another QB sacker on the opposite end of Bosa. And S Hufanga (knee) loss is big, but rookie Ti'Ayir Brown stepped in last week to fill the void well. But don't count the Seahawks out as long as Pete Carroll is steering the ship. Seahawks 16-6 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a division opponent vs a division opponent off back-to-back wins. Seattle may have lost three straight in this series but they're 7-3 ATS at home vs SF. Sure, no Walker III (adductor), but versatile Charbonnet getting better each week. And Geno Smith (arm bruise) is good to go. Lots of weapons in the offense for Seattle and overdue to break loose. SF defense since Week 8 is 27th through the air in pass defense success. With first place in the NFC West at stakes, Carroll should have his Seahawks put up a fight. SF just 2-6 ATS on Thursdays following a SU win. We'll take the home dog on prime-time TV. 

Packers/Lions 12:30: Lions have taken control of this series to the tune of 4-0 SU/ATS including Week 4 in Green Bay. On that Thursday night, the Lions dominated with 211 yards rushing while the defense sacked QB Love 5 times. Today, the Lions should remain hungry. They narrowly escaped defeat on Sunday vs Chicago. Campbell most assuredly used that game as a wake up call to get his men motivated here. Detroit 5-0 ATS after the Bears and they're 9-1 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. And the Packers not having Aaron Jones (MCL) nor TE Musgrave (lacerated kidney) won't help offensive production. Lions the call. 

Eagles/Chiefs 8:15: I had the Chiefs (+1) in Super Bowl and delivered. Tonight, going with the vengeful road dog. Eagles have had some secondary issues surely Mahomes will attempt to attack the 28th pass defense which has given up 19 TDs this season. Chiefs missing that explosive play element this season. But their defense is playing outstanding (15.9 PPG). If there is an area of KC defense Philadelphia offense can exploit, it's in the run game. Swift has been amazing behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. And surely versatile Hurts is dangerous with his feet and through the air to his two great receivers Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Goedert is a significant loss, but Jack Stoll will have to step up and fill the void. Mahomes great in prime time but have to go with the Eagles. Philadelphia a sweet 15-2 ATS on Mondays off a SU/ATS win. Their first role as a dog of the season should be successful. 

Vikings/Broncos 8:20: Broncos flourishing in the dog role with impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. But now they go back as a favorite where they struggle (0-3 ATS). Vikings quietly turning it around themselves. After a 1-4 start, they reeled off 5 straight wins. Minnesota's O'Connell doing an amazing job keeping the Vikings in the hunt with veteran journeyman QB Dobbs. Fortunately, the surrounding cast - from the offensive line, TE Hockenson and WR Addison, to their no-name running game behind Mattison and Chandler. What's more, is the great defensive play behind DC Flores. Like last season, O'Connell finds ways of winning close games and he's flourishing as a dog this season. We'll take the points. 

Seahawks/Rams 4:25: Seahawks were embarrassed on their home field on opening day in the second half. Since then, it left a bad taste in their mouths and they're looking for revenge in Los Angeles today. Rams are well rested and do have Stafford ready. We'll look for Seattle to get the run game going and tighten the bolts defensively. Seattle the call. 

Bears/Lions 1:00: Lions' defense gave up 403 yards and 38 points in their shootout with the Chargers last week. Not to worry. Detroit a sweet 8-0 ATS at home after allowing 35+ including 2-0 ATS in that role this season. Bears will operate with Justin Fields as their starter this week. Fields and company accounted for 200 rushing yards last season at Detroit but got blown out 41-10. Goff hard to stop at Ford Field, even against an improving Chicago secondary. Lions the call. 

Raiders/Dolphins 1:00: Raiders revitalized under new leadership as they blasted the Giants and got by the Jets in Las Vegas. Now they travel to the dominant venue of Hard Rock Stadium where they face the #1 offense in the NFL. Miami has thoroughly whipped all four of their opponents at home. And as attractive as it is to take the points here, it's going to be hard for a mediocre Raiders' defense to stay with the track speed Miami exhibits, including the return of RB Achane (knee) who averaged 12.1 YPC before sitting out the last 4 games. Miami had an extra week of prep off their losing trip to Germany. And surely DC Fazio will dial up the right schematic combination against Raiders' rookie QB O'Connell. Miami the call. 

Bengals/Ravens 8:15: Both teams coming into this game banged up on short rest. Bengals won't have Higgins. He's a significant loss but QB Burrow can make above average receivers look very good. He still has Boyd, Mixon out of the backfield, and Chase. TE Tanner Hudson seems to be stepping his game up among tight ends on the roster. Baltimore defense without Marlon Humphrey (calf) will help our cause by canceling out more depth. Bengals' defense gave up 17 plays of 20+ yards last week to Houston. DC Anarumo has most assuredly addressed that to the defense. Bengals' edge rushing subs - Sample and #1 draft choice Myles Murphy need to help contain the ever-elusive Lamar Jackson. Sam Hubbard is already out, and Hendrickson (knee) may be limited. Bengals looking to avenge September 17th 27-24 loss. Burrow was still recovering from that calf strain in Week 2. He can run now, and I have confidence in him in a much-needed division revenge game on prime-time TV. Bengals are 12-3 ATS vs a division opponent off a SU home loss. They're also 9-2 ATS on the road vs a division opponent off a home game. Baltimore is a money burning 1-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a SU loss vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Take the points with Cincinnati. 

Broncos/Bills 8:15: Denver's defense improved dramatically since that 70-point debacle September 24th. Broncos have hit 3 straight "under". Buffalo's Allen has had trouble with turnovers; as a matter of fact, 14 interceptions last 13 games dating back to last season. Bills have gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 scoring 25 points or less. Finishing in the red zone has been a problem over that stretch. On the other hand, Bills defense has been hit with injuries across the board. Their defense is yielding but tight in red zone when it counts yielding just 17.8 PPG. Denver should be able to drive yet stall out inside 20 yard line. Broncos non-explosive play team with no vertical threats to speak of. Prime Time TV games at 7-25 O/U and NFL MNF 1-10 O/U. Stay "under".

Falcons/Cardinals 4:05: Cardinals welcome back Kyler Murray and RB James Conner. QB Murray not the guy to bet on vs elite teams (1-12 ATS) but he can lead the Cardinals to victory vs the underachieving Falcons. Falcons allowed QB Dobbs - who arrived to Minnesota 5 prior to the game- to beat them. Murray and Conner a solid one-two punch in Arizona's offense. Finally, Marquise Brown can move up the Fantasy Charts. Cardinals' HC Gannon doing a decent job keeping his team competitive while Atlanta's Arthur Smith just finds different ways to lose. Take the home dog here. 

Browns/Ravens 1:00: Baltimore looks like the hottest team in the NFL after their 4-0 run in which they've outscored opponents 130-49. They possess a top ranked defense and an offense that's running hot. However, don't overlook the Browns. They're in a division revenge mode from October 1st 28-3 loss without Watson. Today, Watson is back in the fray off a decent game and more comfortable running the offense. And the Browns possess the top defense in yards allowed per game and 3rd in the league in points allowed per game. Baltimore just 2-10 ATS as a division home favorite of less than 7 points. Take the points. 

Browns/Ravens 1:00: Two defenses that are tops in the NFL. Ravens' defense allows just 13.8 PPG while the Browns allow 17.4 PPG. Baltimore offense percolating under OC Monken; however, Ravens have just beaten teams senseless down field with limited explosive plays (20+ yards). Cleveland very tough to pound the course of the field on. In contrast, Browns a non-explosive offense themselves regardless of who is at the helm. Tough sledding against this Ravens' defense. Take the "Under" in limited scoring here.  

Titans/Bucs 1:00: Titans had a few extra prep days for this after coming off Thursday night (11-2) loss to Pittsburgh. In that game, QB Will Levis showed he has what it takes to be the starting QB. He hung tough and delivered well enough to win that game; consequently, he won the starting job over Tannehill. Meanwhile, his counterpart - Mayfield - turned in a good enough performance to win; however, the TB secondary was lit up like a torch. Bucs' defense allows 7.4 yards per pass - which is second to last (Denver). Like our chances here with Levis running the offense as RB Henry and Spears can assist in softening up the TB defense to allow Hopkins and company to stretch the field. Tennessee has historically done well on extra rest at 7-0-1 ATS, and also control a 10-2 SU mark in this series. Can't side with TB here. Mayfield strong as a dog but as a favorite a money burning 10-22-2 ATS including 1-9 ATS in his last 10 as chalk. Tennessee the call. 

Panthers/Bears 8:15: Bears have shown up to play on Prime Time the last few years. Last season, in Week 7, they walked in Foxborough and destroyed the Patriots. And October 5th (Thursday), they punched out a lifeless Washington team in Landover. Tonight, we'll go back on the Bears. Bagent actually has a higher QBR (52.3) than his more high-profile counterpart Bryce Young (29.3 QBR). Bagent is starting to get in rhythm with TE Kmet, and the dangerous DJ Moore. Bears should be able to move the football on the Panthers' defense which is like a MASH unit. Tons of people on the IR and no edge pressure with Brian Burns out. On the flip end, Bears do well stopping the run but need a pass rush to help out their struggling secondary. Bears made a significant upgrade before trade deadline in acquiring Montez Sweat. Bears the call. 

Chargers/Jets 8:15: Chargers' defense shaped up vs the Bears last week but still suspect in areas. Look for the Jets to get the ground game going with Breece Hall. Chargers' pass defense weak - dead last in yards allowed. Zach Wilson hasn't been sharp but limiting mistakes during the Jets 3-0 run. Jets' defense keeping them in games and that should be the script here. Chargers down another receiver (Palmer on IR). Herbert already without Williams (ACL). Jets have one of the better secondaries that the Chargers will face. And Jets have been in every game except at Dallas. Jets more physical than finesse Chargers. Chargers cross country travel should also have a detrimental effect. We'll stay at home with the Jets. 

Bills/Bengals 8:20: Few shine in the bright lights on Prime Time TV more than Joe Burrow who is 5-0 SU in that role with the Bengals. Bengals are heating up once again and, like last week, we'll grab them again. They're 19-5 SU and 19-4-1 ATS vs non-division foes. Now that the offensive line is getting healthier and the defense is rocking under DC Anarumo, we'll stay on them here. 

Giants/Raiders 4:25: Raiders getting a lot of love with HC Mcdaniels out, Garoppolo benched, and Antonio Pierce in as the interim HC.  I'm not buying into it. No quick fix to a lethargic offense with O'Connell getting the nod to start. He didn't fare all that well against the Bears and Chargers - two crappy defenses. And with his RT Munford out, look for DC Wink Martindale to dial up some exotic blitzes to disrupt an already disrupted offense. On the other side of the ball, Raiders won't have LB Deablo to stuff the run game. He along with Maxx Crosby are two of the few players in the box that play hard consistently. Raiders' run-stop-unit allows 141 YPG (30th). Giants get Daniel Jones back and he should get help from the run game today with Barkley. And it's about time that receivers Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Hodgins and Hyatt turn it up a few notches. HC Daboll 8-2 ATS off a SU loss. Giants the call. 

Ravens/Seahawks 1:00: Seahawks are as healthy as they've been all season. And acquiring versatile lineman Leonard Williams over the trade deadline was huge. He adds the much-needed depth to shore up the run game and disrupt Lamar Jackson in the pass game. Seattle defense has gotten better every week. And they have a talented well-versed secondary. And Ravens won't have starting RT Moses (out). On the flip side, QB Geno Smith getting comfortable distributing the rock to multiple weapons, including #1 draft pick Smith-Nijigba. And with the O-line getting healthy, Walker III and Charbonet can keep the chains moving. Technically, Seattle a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points off SU win vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Seattle the call. 

Dolphins/Chiefs 9:30: Each coach took a different approach to travel plans to Frankfurt, Germany. McDaniel and his team left Monday while Reid and his team flew out Thursday. Not a whole lot of stock into it, but Reid is 2-0 in international games. Miami was 1-4 SU playing in London. More importantly, the incumbent champ - KC is stewing over its most recent loss in Denver. They don't take losing well and have most always responded well off losses in the Mahomes era. Sure, they have their work cut out for them against the #1 offense in the NFL and a virtually uncoverable - former Chief - Tyreek Hill. But KC has shown an unusual early season success defensively. They're #2 in scoring defense and have already shut down 3-star receivers in Justin Jefferson (28 yards), Keenan Allen (55 yards) and DJ Moore (41). The Chiefs are yielding vs the run but limit explosive plays and tighten in the red zone. Important stat is that they're #2 scoring defense in the NFL. DC Spagnuolo should dial up the right blend of pressure to limit the Dolphins. On the other hand, hard to stop Mahomes and company two weeks straight. We'll take KC. 

Titans/Steelers 8:15: I was on the Titans (+2) last week at home and delivered as Will Levis lit up Atlanta's secondary. Now that the Steelers have film on what to expect from Levis, I don't believe that Levis' magic will continue at this venue. Steelers' have a better pass rush than Atlanta; consequently, Levis won't have an extra second to wait in the pocket for Hopkins to work a double move on a Steeler's corner, especially with TJ Watt off the edge along with the inside presence of Cam Heyward (probable). Steelers' QB Pickett good to go and it's comforting knowing that Diontae Johnson is settling in as a good alternative to super WR Pickens. And would love for Pittsburgh to utilize RB Warren more. Tennessee has struggled vs the AFC North at 3-13 ATS and has failed to cover three straight to Pittsburgh. The Titans have been suspect off of wins and are just 1-8 ATS off a SU non-conference home win. Steelers pretty strong as a home favorite on TNF. Steelers the call. 

Raiders/Lions 8:15: Time on our side getting down on the Lions. This line is moving in favor of Detroit (-7) as we sit. Banged up offensive line forced a reshuffling of it and it was evident in their loss last week at Baltimore. Given a week to tighten it up, Detroit's OC Ben Johnson should have their protection slid to Maxx Crosby who is the only serious threat in the pass rush along the defensive front. Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown (illness) not at his best but Goff is a virtual machine in his comfortable confines of Ford Field. He's got a great young TE in LaPorta, speedy RB Gibbs, and Jameson Williams is on the verge of showing why he was the #1 pick for Detroit in the 2022 draft. Raiders' secondary is one of the worst tackling units in the NFL and that's trouble for them in YAC (yards after catch). Offensively, Raiders' struggling to manufacture points (16 points per game) - third worst in the league. Garoppolo is good to go and a solid QB; however, not the most mobile which should allow Hutchinson and company to deliver needed pressure; especially, since Raiders' run game has gone south this year (3 YPC). Raiders' HC McDaniels having trouble, like he did in Denver, taking control of team as whispers of player backlash continues. And he can't be trusted vs an opponent off a SU loss in which McDaniels sports a 2-6 ATS mark. On the other hand, Detroit is a sweet 6-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss. And they're 6-0 ATS at home after allowing more than 35 points. Detroit 7-1 ATS as a home favorite on MNF.  Detroit the call. 

Bears/Chargers 8:20: Both defenses leave much to be desired - ranking in the bottom of the league in most categories. Bears' QB Bagent stepped in last week like he's been doing this for years. Great poise, pocket awareness, and a go-to target D.J. Moore who's been virtually uncoverable. Meanwhile, Herbert should shred a the fourth worst secondary in the NFL. Bears give up nearly 27 PPG. Chicago is 6-1 O/U this season. We'll look for a higher scoring game here. 

Bengals/49ers 4:25: Bengals starting to heat up while SF is cooling off. Bengals off two straight wins and had a week to prep and get healthy. Meanwhile, SF off two straight losses while their QB Purdy clears concussion protocol and preps for a defense that can make good QBs look average. Not having Deebo Samuel also advantage Cincinnati. And LT Trent Williams is still questionable. How good has Cincinnati been in the Joe Burrow era? Think about this: They're 16-3 SU in their last 19 games vs teams above .500. And they're 18-5 SU/18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 non-division games. Yep, I'm on Cincinnati. 

Atlanta/Tennessee 1:00: Atlanta has won 2 of its last 3 games but it hasn't been pretty. Falcons had 6 turnovers the last 2 weeks. Now they enter Nissan Stadium where the Titans are eager to atone for their 0-2 slide. They've had a bye week to sort things out and prep QBs Willis and Levis. Titans a sweet 6-0-1 ATS following a bye week. They're also 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent over .400. Titans should get it done in this spot. 

Texans/Panthers 1:00: Texans playing solid football. C.J. Stroud doing a great job taking care of the football with great pocket awareness. OC Slowik has the offense moving, they just need to finish more. Carolina could be the elixir; after all, their defense is 31st in points allowed with 31 PPG. Defensively, Texans are a defense that's yielding but limit explosive plays and tighten in the red zone (8th in league in points allowed). Don't trust Carolina play calling now that Reich decided suddenly to turn over those duties to his OC. Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and I like Houston's chances here. 

Bucs/Bills 8:15: Bills dropped three straight ATS but should bounce back here; after all, they're a blistering 33-10 ATS off three ATS losses. McDermott usually eats up and spits out these teams. He's 7-2 ATS vs an opponent with a lower win/loss % off a SU/ATS loss. Buccaneers have been a 1-8 ATS flop on Thursdays against greater than .500 teams. Both teams banged up. Bills do get a few healthy bodies back for this game, including key defensive lineman Ed Oliver (toe) to help shore up a leaky run stop unit. Fortunately, the Bucs' run game has not been strong (78 YPG). TB won't have their starting LG Feiler tonight. And Mayfield (knee), who started the season hot with wins over Minnesota and Chicago, has struggled in 3 of the last 4 losses. We'll look for this spot to get the Bills back on track. 

49ers/Vikings 8:15: Vikings competitive but on the losing side for all but two games, including last week's win at Chicago. They now have to face an ornery 49ers team that's stewing over an outright loss at Cleveland last week. 49ers have been consistently good in this role on MNF; as a matter of fact, SF a sweet 12-1 ATS on MNF off a double-digit ATS loss. They're 6-0 ATS as a traveler on MNF. And they're a perfect 11-0 ATS off a SU road favorite loss vs an opponent off a SU win. SF is one of the best MNF road favorites at 17-6 ATS. On the other hand, Minnesota is a brutal 0-8 ATS as a MNF dog. What makes the Vikings unappealing tonight is their lack of run game. Minnesota has not adequately filled the void for the loss of Dalvin Cook (Jets). The Vikings are averaging a paltry 75 YPG on the ground (30th in the league). SF defense can make one dimensional teams look miserable. 49ers' top tier defense is #1 in anti QBR at 65.3. Cousins could be in for a long night, and not having RB Ezra Cleveland (RG) won't help matters. SF should have RB McCaffery tonight to add to QB Purdy's already potent arsenal. And although Deebo is out, SF has enough talent to get it done here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: Chargers have been very competitive against their division rival. Staley has gone 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS vs Kansas City. Staley at his best as a dog off a SU loss at 5-0 ATS. Chiefs are coming off an extended rest after downing division lightweight Denver at home on the 12th. Chiefs not good in the role of a favorite of less than 9 points in the second of back-to-back home games. And as a division home favorite of less than 7 points vs a team less than .500, KC is a money burning 1-10 ATS. Chargers' Herbert always dangerous, especially off a bad game. He should be more in rhythm with his receivers today. Chargers the call.

Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: When these teams go at it, they tend to put up points, especially in KC; as a matter of fact, the last 4 games in this series at KC averaged 54 with a range of 51 to 59.  Both gunslingers - Mahomes and Herbert are equipped with most of their key weapons. Weather should be nice at game time (72 degrees and sunny). Chargers got swept in this series last year. When they're in a revenge mode off a SU loss, they're 8-1 O/U. Over the call. 

Buffalo/New England 1:00: Bills not happy about squeaking out a narrow win over hapless Giants last week. Look for a more focused Bills team under no nonsense HC McDermott. Patriots are getting back people in decimated secondary, but they haven't played together virtually all season and area of responsibility issues can arise, especially against a formidable offense with the big play potential of Buffalo. Patriots miss Judon (IR) as that rusher they can count on. Offensively, the Patriots' pedestrian unit has been outscored 93-20 in their three-game slide. Bills' defense allows the 7th fewest pass yards in the league. Mac Jones not having a good year and his receivers come up short in crucial situations.  Buffalo is a sweet 33-10 ATS when coming off three ATS losses. We'll lay the points with Buffalo. 

Browns/Colts 1:00: Browns feeling really good after upsetting class of NFC San Francisco; moreover, Deshaun Watson is most likely to play today. The excitement ends there. Watson has played one decent game this season, against an inept Tennessee offense. His QBR is an underwhelming 46.7. And the Browns have been consistently inconsistent by alternating losses and wins over their last 10 games dating back to last December. Browns' backers should be concerned with the availability of three key players: RB Hunt (thigh), LB Takitaki (out), and arguably their best cornerback - Newsome (hamstring). Colts are a dangerous team here. They have lots of speed at LB and in the secondary along with a formidable defensive front led by Buckner. Offensively, they're in for a big challenge. Browns have a legitimate #1 defense; however, they sell out repeatedly and we won't discount Gardner Minshew despite his 3 INT game last week. He's a smart veteran QB who has some very good skill players and good offensive line. Running game with Jonathan Taylor overdue to get untracked. And we won't overlook the fact that the Colts are an amazing 8-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU win. Colts the call. 

Jaguars/Saints 8:15: This line flipped from Jaguars (-1) to (+1). Bettors concern about Trevor Lawrence (knee) who remains a GTD at this stage. Good sign for Jaguars' backers is that he practiced light yesterday and he's a tough guy. His supporting cast is solid. Ridley has been amazing, Etienne is rock solid as the ace back, and Kirk has been a great second option. And backup QB Beathard is a seasoned vet who can take over if needed. Jaguars' defense playing well. As for New Orleans, offense inability to close in the red zone is a problem. And their offensive line is banged up to make matters worse. Defensively, secondary playmaker Mathieu (foot) is hobbling and All-Pro LB Davis (knee) may not go. Saints 0-7 ATS vs non-division opponents on Thursday Night Football. We'll ride the winning momentum of the Jags here. 

Cowboys/Chargers 8:15: SoFi Stadium clearly not an intimidating venue for opposing teams; as a matter of fact, Cowboys, like other popular franchises, have traveling fans who will fill lots of seats. Cowboys are coming off a battering at Levi's Stadium. That was expected. Prescott and company not ready for the NFC elite at full strength. Tonight, Prescott will have larger windows to throw through vs a Chargers' secondary ranked dead last in the league vs the pass. Chargers bring a heavy rush but yield explosive plays. CeeDee Lamb should be targeted heavily tonight. On the other hand, Cowboys' defense does have injury concerns but 2nd tier personnel is schooled reasonably well under DC Quinn. And I won't put a lot of stock into revenge for former Cowboys' QB and OC who McCarthy let go this year. Each know each other's tendencies so it's a wash. Well rested Chargers had a chance to get some guys healthy, but Herbert still has broken middle finger on non-throwing hand. No matter what anyone says, that will make very short yardage (QB sneak) opportunities under center very challenging with the exchange. Inevitably that scenario will come into play and be difficult. Interesting note that Prescott has never lost back-to-back road games. Cowboys are 10-1 ATS off a loss in their last 11 in that role. Dallas the call. 

Giants/Bills 8:20: Waited for this line to creep up to 15' and we'll take those points. Bills off disheartening loss in London. In that game, they lost three key defensive players including All-Pro LB Milano. Giants' offense pathetic with offensive line injuries which create another reshuffling. And Daniel Jones (neck) will not play. Ball in the hands of QB Tyrod Taylor who has been around the league for years. It will make Buffalo DC difficult to prepare for. Taylor does have weapons in Hyatt (rookie), Robinson, Slayton and potentially RB Barkley (ankle) who need to step up. You're never as good or bad as people think you are in this league. We'll take the points

Panthers/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins, even with the injuries (Achane), just too explosive offensively for Carolina to keep up with in Miami. Carolina defense has played decent but eventually succumb on account of a lack of offense. Defensively, a good time of the year for well-respected DC Vic Fangio to get his troops on the same page before November. Dolphins the call. 

Commanders/Falcons 1:00: Falcons protecting their home turf and should be able to piece together back-to-back wins here. Ridder had a respectable game vs a pretty good defense (Houston) last week. He's got a run game with Robinson and Allgeier who should attack a Washington run-stop-unit that's allowing nearly 5 YPC. Ridder has the weapons at his disposal: London, TE Pitts, newly acquired Van Jefferson, and TE Jonnu Smith who is finally producing like he did years ago in Tennessee. Washington secondary is allowing a generous 12 yards per completion - worst in the NFL. Offensively, Washington has been on the verge of making noise but sacks, fumbles and interceptions get in the way. Falcons' defense showing promise this year. Falcons the call.