Eagles/Bills 1:00: Inclement weather should be a driving force coupled with a pair of teams with limited offensive firepower. Rain is forecasted along with 21 MPH wins in Orchard Park. Bills aren't a juggernaut offensively (22nd scoring points) but do bring the 3rd ranked defense to the field. Philadelphia is struggling offensively (23rd) and turnovers have been an issue. This series is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 meetings and Bills are on a 1-5 O/U run. Eagles 2-5 O/U on the road. "Under" the call. 

Broncos/Colts 1:00: Frank Reich doing an amazing job with the Colts, who have been ultra competitive in every game this year. Colts now on a 2-0 SU/ATS run and taking on a Broncos team that got buried 30-6 on their home field on the 17th. Denver has a recent history of shaking off those bad defeats going 0-5 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Broncos 1-6 ATS in Indy and don't possess enough offense to do damage to a Colts' defense which got back All-Pro LB Leonard last week. Underrated QB Brissett getting it done now that Hilton is back in the fray. Colts the call. 

Giants/Lions 1:00: Lions have been a good underdog play virtually all season at 4-1 ATS. But now they're cast in the favorite role in which they struggle. 0-1 in that role this season as a 2' favorite at Arizona. And Patricia is a dismal 1-5 ATS at home vs the NFC. Lions in the bottom tier of the NFL defensively (31st) in terms of yards allowed and passing yards (30th). And trading S Diggs didn't sit over well with teammates. Moreover, offensively the loss of Kerryon Johnson (knee) won't help ward off the rush of Stafford - who's been doing a good job making plays. Today, interception prone Daniel Jones should find a rhythm with Barkley back in action (72 rush last week). Giants have covered 7 of their last 9 road tilts and HC Shurmur is at his best off a home game at 8-2 ATS. Giants the call. 

Bengals/Rams 1:00: Rams got it going last week in a route at Atlanta. Newly acquired Jalen Ramsey made an immediate impact virtually locking down Julio Jones. Today, he'll have an even easier time without A.J. Green (ankle). Now we know why QB Dalton was respectable when Green was tearing up the field since 2011. Bengals now the worst rush team in the NFL with an offensive line that can't get Mixon going this season; moreover, they're also the worst defensive team in terms of total yards and rushing yards. That's a bad combination against a heating up Rams team that's finding its game. McVay should teach his protégé Zac Taylor a serious lesson in London today. McVay 8-2 ATS as a favorite vs less than .500 team off non-division game. 

Redskins/Vikings 8:20: Washington's interim HC Callahan excessively detail oriented but the players at this stage of the season thinking way too much and it's slowing them down. Vikings playing fast and hard and improving on both sides of the ball; moreover, QB Cousins in rhythm with his multitude of dangerous weaponry. Washington defense horrible and it should get ugly. Vikings 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off back-to-back wins. 

Patriots/Jets 8:15: Could make a case for NY here. QB Darnold gave life to the dormant Jets' offense last week in their 24-22 home win vs Dallas. And the Jets have covered 5 of the last 6 at home vs NE; moreover, Pro-Bowl LB Moseley (groin) should be good to go. Nevertheless, NE had a bit extra time for this one and Belichick is a dangerous 9-2 ATS as a road favorite with extended rest. Moreover, Jets have gotten outgained in yardage in every game this year including their win vs Dallas. Their run game with Bell is not working for Bell doesn't have the horses to delay and wait for blocking like he did in Pittsburgh. Belichick has taken total control of the defense this year and the Patriots are #1 in virtually every defensive category. Can't see Darnold shredding a well disciplined secondary without a significant run game; moreover, his top receiver Robby Anderson will be locked on CB Gilmore whom has virtually owned Anderson. We'll look for QB Brady to shine when the lights are brightest - as usual. 

Chiefs/Broncos 8:20: Broncos showing life after 0-4 start with 2 SU wins and covers. They've been competitive in virtually every game and will surely attempt to mimic the success of Indy and Houston; as a matter of fact, throw in Detroit (cover but SU loss) which out rushed the Chiefs substantially. Denver has the run game with Lindsay and Freeman to keep QB Mahomes off the field. The non explosive Broncos will surely attempt to methodically gain ground and eat clock tonight. KC run stop unit in bottom of NFL tier (30th) and the Chiefs' defense is 27th in yards allowed. Denver has faced some respectable defenses already and will face the weakest of the season tonight. We'll look for Flacco to deliver. KC explosive offensively but Denver has tightened the bolts as the season progressed and found their pass rush. Denver a sweet 10-2 ATS on Thursday, especially dangerous as a Thursday Night home dog 5-2 ATS. 

Lions/Packers 8:15: Lions have had the Packers' number lately in this series with 4 straight wins. Detroit coming off a bye week which means TE Hockenson will be available to add to an already dangerous Detroit receiving corps of Marvin Jones and Golladay. And RB Kerryon Johnson, coming off a career day vs KC, should carry the rock plentifully vs a GB run stop unit in the bottom tier of the NFL. Defensively, Lions should have CB Slay back to give QB Rodgers a hard time. Rodgers without his top receiver - Adams (toe). Lions in October are a super 10-1 ATS as an above .500 dog vs an above .500 team with revenge. We'll grab the points.

Steelers/Chargers 8:20: Chargers now a money burning 1-3-1 ATS and back to their unofficial home in Carson where Steelers' fans may outnumber Chargers' fans. Steelers have covered 3 straight and I'm staying on them here. 3rd string QB Hodges knows the offense and has a solid supporting cast to work a middle of the road defense. Defensively, Steelers have some serious talent and it's a matter of time before they mesh. We'll look for Pitt to hang around. Steelers in October are a dangerous 10-0 ATS as a dog off a division game vs non-division opponent. Pittsburgh the call.

Titans/Broncos 4:25: I had Denver (+6) as my Top Play last week but I'm fading them here. Titans are predictably unpredictable in a sense that just when you think they've turned the corner and set to begin a win streak, they lay an egg; at the same time, when you write them off after a sluggish performance (like at home vs Buffalo last week) they come back with knock-out power. Expect the latter today. Mariota has taken good care of the rock and RB Henry is overdue for a big game. Denver has yet to win at home and Tennessee is at their best on the road. Titans in October are an impressive 9-2 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Tennessee the call. 

Cowboys/Jets 4:25: Cowboys have a tendency to beat up the sub-par teams and we'll jump back on them here. Dallas is 7-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a losing home record. They're also 6-0 ATS in Week 6. Sure, Jets' QB Darnold is back and NY should find some offense; however, Dallas has too many weapons at Prescott's disposal to allow the 24th ranked defense (points allowed) to stop them. Dallas the call. 

Seahawks/Browns 1:00: Coaching mismatch as Carroll is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Browns, coming off a disastrous MNF outing, are a money burning 1-11 ATS after scoring less than 10 pts. On a short week and thin at corner with Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) doubtful.The well rested Seahawks, off a huge Thursday Night win, should have QB Wilson work more magic. He has a solid ground game to work off of too. On the other hand, Mayfield having a tough time with poor line play. Seattle will surely improve on their pass rush and it should come today. Seattle the call. 

Giants/Patriots 8:20: Giants covered 5 straight in this series; however, that was in the Eli Manning era when Manning took two Super Bowl wins away from Brady, Belichick and Kraft's trophy case. Daniel Jones enters the new Giants' era and he's guided the Giants to a 2-1 SU/ATS mark. He was awesome against defensive lightweights TB and Washington but struggled vs defensive stalwart Minnesota. Now he has to face the #1 defense in the NFL in points and yardage allowed; moreover, he has to do it at a dominant home field without some of his top weapons and down to his 3rd string RB. Difficult task especially vs Belichick who is 11-0 SU/7-4 ATS against rookie QBs. And let's not forget that the Patriots lead the league in takeaways (12). And throw in that the Giants are 30th in the league defensively. Brady surely overdue to breakout when the lights are shining bright. Technically, Giants' HC Shurmur a dismal 1-7 ATS off a non-division game vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll lay the wood.

Browns/49ers 8:15: Browns proved the stage wasn't too big for them when they mauled the Jets in NY on MNF September 16th. Tonight, we'll look for Cleveland to hang tight with SF. Browns are 4-1 ATS vs NFC competition and even gave the incumbent NFC Champs - LA Rams a bit of trouble September 22nd. Defensively, Browns are in good shape; offensively, they broke out last week in Baltimore as Nick Chubb established a run game. Tonight, another dose of Chubb and the Browns will benefit with the return of Antonio Calloway (suspension). Him or OBJ will be matched with SF's weak link corner Moseley, who is now forced to play opposite Sherman because of injuries in that position. We'll look for Baker Mayfield to be on his game. Technically, Shanahan is just 1-8 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points; moreover, SF a poor 0-8 ATS off a bye week. Cleveland the call. 

Broncos/Chargers 4:05: Everyone and their brother finding Denver as a major go-against, especially after latest choke at home vs Jacksonville last week. And after losing Chubb (ACL), life in Denver is bleak, at best. Nevertheless, I like the value with the Broncos here. They've been competitive in their last 3 games and still have some solid veteran stars. QB Flacco still has some juice and some decent skill players including RB Lindsay. Defensively, Broncos are disgusted RB Fournette ran all over them last week. Look for defensive minded HC Fangio to figure things out and give Denver a fighting chance here; after all, Chargers have not displayed elite status this season; moreover, the win over lightweight Miami is surely not a declaration of dominance or winning momentum. Los Angeles is just 11-27-1 ATS at home and just 1-5 ATS at home vs losing teams. Denver controls a 12-4 SU record in this series and is a dangerous dog here.  

Bucs/Saints 1:00: Saints doing an amazing job to keep winning momentum after Brees went down. Bridgewater stepped in and delivered as the Saints reeled off 2 straight against good teams - Seattle and Dallas. Like the Saints here as well. Defensively, Saints' pass defense has been porous but responded well last week. TB's Winston had a monster game last week but he's inconsistent and will throw interceptions. And TB's defensive secondary has been vulnerable for most of the season. Technically, interesting to note that Sean Payton is 33-13-1 ATS following consecutive SU/ATS wins including 23-4-1 ATS vs winning foes. He's also 9-2 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Hard to fade those numbers. Saints deliver. 

Jaguars/Panthers 1:00: Both teams lost their starting QBs and both flourishing in the process. Carolina's Kyle Allen stepped in and guided his team to victories while Gardner Minshew has been fabulous working his magic as well. I'm going to lean to Jacksonville here behind Minshew. He has Fournette (225 yards rushing last week) and a few more vertical threats in Chark, Westbrook and Conley. Carolina super dependent on McCaffrey (411 rush/218 receptions) to ignite offense. I'm looking for Jacksonville's defense to shake up QB Allen and end his magic. Jaguars the call. 

Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Ravens off 2 straight defeats in which defense gave up a ton of points. Now they're going in to Pittsburgh laying points in a historically tightly contested series in which the dog is 7-1-1 ATS; moreover, I can't remember the last time the Ravens were a favorite on the road in this series. Tomlin has been a dangerous dog in his coaching career including 12-1 ATS as a dog vs a .500 or greater opponent. Sure, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and banged up a bit; however, they'll be up for one of their most fierce rivals. And they have the quality depth on both sides of the ball to stay competitive, especially on their home field. Pittsburgh the call. 

Rams/Seahawks 8:20: Seahawks have historically played the Rams tough even when the Rams were at their best last year; as a matter of fact, got swept last year but covered both. Tonight, Seahawks are pretty healthy including OT Duane Brown (practiced Wednesday). Moreover, QB Wilson has a new big target in TE Dissly. And RB Penny should be ready to go to add depth to a an already strong backfield. Rams' defense falling off sharply this year. And offensively, Goff racking up big numbers but mistakes happening with limited run game. Pete Carroll is money in prime time at 26-5-1 SU and 8-1 SU Thursday. Yes, on Seahawks in one of the loudest venues in the NFL.

Bengals/Steelers 8:15: Both teams struggling to find an identity after losing key starters in the off-season. Steelers reeling after losing QB Big Ben (elbow), WR Antonio Brown (released), RB Bell (traded to Jets). But QB Rudolph has shown promise with a strong outing last week at SF. He has quality weapons in Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Diontae Johnson. Pittsburgh should look to get run game going against one of the bottom feeders of the NFL in run-stop-units. Bengals' defense allowing 169 YPG on nearly 5 YPC! Sure, Pittsburgh's defense isn't worth mentioning among the elite either. They're struggling but have some pretty good young talent including S Fitzpatrick (from Miami). Cincinnati's QB Dalton is putting up big numbers in Zac Taylor's system; however, with superstar A.J. Green (ankle) gone for an extended time, the Bengals thrust Boyd, Tate and speedster Ross into the play-making roll. The only problem is there is no run game (42 YPG on 2.4 YPC) - last in the NFL! Consequently, Pitt defense should tee off on the shaky Bengals' offensive line and make life miserable for Dalton and Mixon. Technically, Steelers an amazing 25-5 SU on MNF including 4-1 ATS run. They're also a super 19-3 ATS when they're less than .500 vs less than .500 division opponent; moreover, a perfect 13-0 ATS as less than .500 favorite vs divisional opponent off a SU loss. Finally, the Bengals have been a whipping boy for the Steelers with Pittsburgh controlling an 18-7-1 ATS mark over the last 26 games in this series. We'll roll with Pittsburgh. 

Jacksonville/Denver 4:25: Broncos' OC Scangarello not getting it done with Flacco and company. The first year signal caller's offense has generated a just 16, 14 and 16 points over their 3 weeks of work. Jacksonville defense showed improvement the last few weeks defensively, including a strong performance on the 19th vs Tennessee (7 points). We'll look for that dominating pass rush led by Campbell to do damage to immobile Flacco. On the other hand, rookie QB Minshew II proved that his relief appearance at Houston on the 15th was no fluke. He followed up with a strong start against Tennessee. Denver's defense has yet to register a sack or fumble recovery. Fangio was an excellent DC but questionable HC. Technically, Jaguars are 7-0 ATS with rest vs less than .600 opponent. And Marone is 4-0 ATS off a home game vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss. Jacksonville the call. 

Vikings/Bears 4:25: Bears have not looked impressive on the offensive end with Trubisky and it's not going to get easier here vs the stout Vikings defense. So far, Allen Robinson II is the only key cog at a wide out in the passing game vs a ball hawking Vikings' secondary in Waynes, Rhodes, Harrison and Smith. Vikings seeking double revenge from last year's sweep. Look for the #2 rush offense in the NFL behind Delvin Cook to grind out the yardage while Cousins will have another weapon to add to his dangerous receiving arsenal (Diggs, Thielen) today with the return of Treadwell. Vikings 6-1 ATS in Week 4 and catch Chicago on a short week off that MNF game. Minnesota the call. 

Raiders/Colts 1:00: On the surface, looks like an easy call with Indy. Colts are coming off two straight wins whereas the Raiders dropped two straight following a win over Denver. A closer look, however, reveals a rash of injuries to key personnel for Indy. All Pro LB Leonard (concussion), S Hooker and DE Lewis cut into their defensive depth for the second week. And T.Y. Hilton (quad) takes away QB Brissett's top deep threat. Oakland is hoping OT Trent Brown (ankle) is good to go in order to help the character of Gruden's offense - run game behind RB Josh Jacobs. Technically, Oakland a sweet 8-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. Keep in mind that the last year, the Colts went into Oakland and smothered them 42-28. Interesting to note that the Colt's HC Reich is 0-4 ATS vs a less than .500 opponent seeking revenge. And since the Colts are 0-4 ATS in Week 4, we'll side with Oakland which is 5-1 ATS off a SU loss. 

Patriots/Bills 1:00: Both of these teams have demonstrated strong defensive efforts despite the weakness in the teams they've played. Patriots with Belichick as the architect and signal caller of this year's defense, has not allowed an offensive TD in 3 games! Buffalo's offense is clearly not a juggernaut but has been productive. Patriots' defense has shut down the run early against all opponents and I expect them to do the same here before they tear into QB Josh Allen. On the other hand, Buffalo picked up where they left off last year with strong defensive effort in all 3 games. They'll have their hands full but Brady has some targets dinged up and even Brady is hobbling on a injured calf. NE is now 4-11 O/U in their last 15 games. Buffalo is on a 1-5 O/U run and this series is 2-5 O/U. Under it is.  

Patriots/Bills 1:00: Patriots have won 29 of 34 in this series and they're 16-5-1 ATS in Buffalo. With Edelman traveling, Brady (calf) able to practice this week, and a defense that has not given up a single offensive TD this season, New England is primed to deliver again. Sure, Bills are a quality team for I cashed the winning ticket with them in Week 1; however, areas of concern offensively with Josh Allen and surely Belichick will find a way to exploit his and the rest of the Bills' offensive weaknesses. A few points of value here as the Bills are a mere 1-4 ATS at home vs winning road teams. 

Eagles/Packers 8:20: Could make a case for the Eagles here in three competitive games but underachieved in the Vegas money at 0-3 ATS. This will be there toughest assignment thus far and on a short week. Defensively, Eagles have concerns in their secondary and, offensively their vertical threat Desean Jackson (abdominal strain) is still out. They're also having trouble getting the run game started - fumble problem related - and that won't bode well vs the new improved GB defense. Packers have gotten after the QB so far - 12 sacks and their secondary is much improved from a year ago. Offensively, Packers' QB Rodgers, despite the 3-0 mark, disappointed in the offense and he should come out smoking under the bright lights tonight with his weapons Adams, Marquez-Valdez-Scantling, and Aaron Jones. Eagles' pass defense ranks 29th vs the pass and they've only registered 2 sacks. Packers 9-0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of less than 13 points off a non-conference game. GB the call. 

Bears/Redskins 8:15: Sure, Redskins have been a miserable MNF performer at 0-6 ATS and everybody and their brother have pounded Chicago on this one. But don't get too excited about the Bears. They're generally slow out of the gate in September (5-12 ATS) and do not play well on the road against teams with losing records at home (1-5 ATS); after all, in Nagy's season debut last year, as good as it was, the Bears failed to cover at lightweight Arizona, Miami and NY Giants. Moreover, keep in mind that the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in this series. Sure, the Redskins' defense was a sieve against their first two opponents; however, Philly and Dallas do have respectable offenses, Chicago's offense is 30th in the NFL. Gruden can be dangerous as a dog and we'll grab the generous amount of points on the homie.

Texans/Chargers 4:25: Can't count on the Chargers this time of year at 4-8 ATS in first 3 games of the season over the last 4 years. Moreover, their makeshift home stadium - now Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, is almost equivalent to a road game where their stadium capacity is a mere 30,000, almost never sold out and lots of times more than half filled with traveling team fans. LAC now 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 designated home games. Love QB Rivers but he's a sitting duck lots of times and Houston's Watt, Merciless and rookie Omenihu will be bringing the heat. And with Chargers' S Adrian Phillips out, Houston's QB Watson overdue for big game. Chargers have had trouble closing out games and that trend should continue. Texans 4-0 ATS off an ATS loss and should deliver here. 

Saints/Seahawks 4:25: Thought this line would be a bit higher considering the importance QB Brees (thumb) brings to the offense. Bridgewater is an adequate replacement and Hill is respectable in his novelty role; however, noisy Century-Link Field will be too big a test considering this is Bridgewater's first start in years. Pete Carroll a strong 10-2 ATS as a greater than .500 team vs an opponent off a SU loss. Seattle the call. 

Steelers/49ers 4:25: Teams heading in opposite direction as the Steelers remain winless and without their #1 QB while 49ers rolling 2-0 out of the gate. Easy call for the 49ers, right? Not so fast. 49ers a money burning 1-13 ATS in their last 14 favorite rolls; moreover, HC Shannahan 0-7 ATS at home off a non-division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Furthermore, 49ers are 1-8 ATS at home off scoring more than 22 points. Sure, Garoppolo is continuing his success and everything is running smooth in SF. But Pittsburgh is not an easy out. Steelers' HC Tomlin 11-1 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Steelers' QB Rudolph showed promise last week vs Seattle. And he's got weapons in Smith-Schuster, a solid TE and his old college teammate - speedster James Washington. I do realize Pitt's defense is struggling but they have talent and will figure it out. Surely, newly acquired Fitzpatrick will make an immediate impact. Steelers the call. 

Oakland/Minnesota 1:00: Zimmer a cash cow as a non-division home favorite at 18-2 ATS. Oakland hits the road off a tough loss. Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and face an ornery Vikings team eager to get back in the win column after early game collapse at Green Bay. Minnesota did make a strong comeback that fell short but positive momentum should carry over here. Vikings a more complete team now that their running game is Cook-ing, literally! And Thielen, Diggs and Rudolph eager for breakout games. Should come here vs a still suspect Raiders' defense. 

Tennessee/Jacksonville 8:20: Just when you think the Titans are rolling they will disappoint. And when you lose faith in them, they'll win convincingly - as they did vs Browns in Week 1. After coming off a loss last week, we'll look for Tennessee to respond favorably; after all, they're 4-1 ATS in September and looked sharp on both prime time games last season. Last year, RB Henry ran all over the Jags. He's healthy this year and Mariota is overdue to get on his game. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Gardner Minshew II stole the show last week by rallying his team to a near victory (failed 2 point conversion) at Houston. However, Titans had a week to study him and should find flaws in the rookie's game to exploit. Jag's HC Marrone is a poor 1-7 ATS off an away game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Titans up 4-0 ATS in this series and on a short week, believe the Titans recovered quicker and should deliver in a spot they do well in (8-1 ATS as Thursday night favorites).  

Browns/Jets 8:15: Didn't think line move would be this dramatic. QB Darnold is clearly not an NFL Top 5 QB and the Browns haven't shown they are what they were hyped to be in pre-season after getting blown out by the Titans on their home turf. Jets are replacing Darnold with veteran Trevor Siemian who had a winning record as a starter with Denver. Jets are also seeking to avenge last year's loss in QB Mayfield's debut. Jets a dangerous 8-3 ATS as a MNF home dog where the Browns are a troublesome 0-4 ATS on MNF off a double digit SU loss. We'll grab the points here. 

Browns/Jets 8:15: Both defenses respectable and should stall out offenses that are searching for game. Former Browns' DC Gregg Williams who is now the Jets' DC is still bitter in not being retained as Browns' HC and not a fan of current Browns' HC Kitchens who released him. We'll look for Williams to dial up successful schemes to limit the Browns' struggling offense. Browns are 1-9 O/U off a double-digit loss at home. On the other side of the ball, Jets' QB Darnold (mono) is out and replacement is former Denver QB Trevor Siemian who never put up big numbers while in Denver. Gase should take a conservative approach with him. "Under" it is.

Eagles/Falcons 8:20: Going to grab value with a Falcons team that is 10-1 SU/ATS in home opener with Matt Ryan as their QB. Falcons are also 4-0 ATS in Week 2 while the Eagles tend to struggle in Week 2 at 2-8 ATS. The Falcons did get mauled last week in Minnesota but do sport a plethora of weaponry to exploit an Eagles' defense that got shredded by Case Keenum last week. Defensively, Falcons' got worked on the ground but held Cousins to under a 100 yards passing. Falcons have a ball hawking secondary and great LB in Deion Jones. Atlanta should settle in at home and deliver. 

Saints/Rams 4:25: Unimpressed with the Saints' defense which regressed from a year ago. They gave up nearly 8 yards per play to Houston last Monday. Today, Rams' QB Goff and his explosive weaponry should be more in rhythm against a softer defense. On the flip side, Brees looked sharp with his set of weapons and that should carry over here against a Wade Phillips' defense that looked less fierce in Week 1 than a year ago. Saints exploded for 510 yards on the Texans. Saints are 7-2 O/U in September and 13-6 O/U in Week 2. Rams have gone 5-1 O/U in their last 6 home games. This series is 8-3 O/U. "Over" the call. 

Vikings/Packers 1:00: Vikings kicked the crap out of Atlanta last week and I'm liking them going into Green Bay to make a run for the money. Sure, GB slugged it out successfully against Chicago but Bears' defense wasn't the same without DC Fangio. And QB Trubisky was his usual self (mediocre) when facing Green Bay, regardless of coordinator. I like Minnesota's run game with Delvin Cook and QB Cousins surely has the receiving weaponry and protection (OL) when the passing game gets rolling. As for the GB offense, QB Rodgers and company converted just 2 of its 12 third downs last week. And their won game was not good. They'll face a stiffer test against the very good Vikings' defense. Vikings tied in GB and won in Minnesota last year. Zimmer is 11-2 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win with revenge. 

Chargers/Lions 1:00: Chargers were road warriors last year cashing the ticket in 7 of their last 8 road tilts including playoffs. Today, we get good value with the Chargers as this line dropped to near pick. Chargers have that fierce pass rush with Bosa and Ingram that will be disruptive to QB Stafford, especially since LT Taylor Becker (back) struggled last week in his protection. And veteran LB Thomas Davis was a huge pick up in the off-season from Carolina. Davis had 14 tackles last week. Offensively, QB Rivers still has the juice and the run game is still rolling behind RB Ekeler filling in admirably for holdout Gordon. As for Detroit, not enough of a run game to do damage to the Chargers' defense that got gashed last week. We'll grab the Chargers on the money line. 

Cowboys/Redskins 1:00: Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in Washington and should deliver the goods. Prescott has 10 TD passes 0 INTs in his last 5 NFC road games. He surely has many weapons to go to at FedEx Field including Cobb, Cooper, Gallup and RB Elliot not to mention his tight ends. Redskins got worked in the second half last week at Philadelphia. Hard to imagine them sustaining a balanced attack with Case Keenum's limited weaponry with TE Reed out. We'll jump on the Cowboys here. 

Bucs/Panthers 8:20: Panthers did a respectable job against incumbent NFC champ - Rams in Week 1. Defensively, they limited explosive plays and made Los Angeles work for everything they got. I believe they can fluster interception prone TB QB Winston. On the other hand, Newton did a nice job running the offense but need some vertical push up the field with Samuel or Moore. McCaffrey is outstanding but Carolina struggles when he is overused. TE Olsen (back) should be good to go. These teams split games last year with each winning on their home field. More of the same tonight. NFL away team in first Thursday Night game of season is 1-15 SU (2-10-4 ATS). TB is 1-8 ATS on Thursdays and 1-9 ATS as a division dog of more than 3 points vs an opponent with revenge. We'll look for the more polished Panthers to rule on their home field. 

Broncos/Raiders 10:15: Raiders attempting to be relevant again but it shouldn't happen tonight. It's hard to turn the from excitement over AB playing and wake up a few days before opening day and he's gone (Patriots). Oakland now has to rely on Tyrell Williams (from Chargers) as their #1 receiver. He's good but not the game breaker Antonio Brown is. And not sure the Raiders' run game is back. Still offensive line question marks. Denver's new HC Fangio has a wealth of defensive bodies to instill his wisdom in. Edge rushers Miller and Chubb should wreak havoc on QB Carr. And grabbing Kareem Jackson (Texas) and former player Callahan (Bears) will surely boost the secondary. Offensively, still believe QB Flacco has some juice in him. OC Scangarello  (disciple of Kyle Shanahan) should help the offense roll especially with the additions of Ja'waan James (OT) and Risner (draft). Raiders' DC Guenther has never had a formidable defense even while with Cincinnati. Last year, 29.2 PPG allowed - worst in NFL... Denver does their best work early in the season, including 7-0 in season openers. Denver the call.      

Texans/Saints 7:10: Value with a Texans team that shored up its biggest problem last season: protecting Deshaun Watson. They added Howard and Scharping through the draft and grabbed Matt Kalil (Carolina) and stole Tunsil from Miami. A healthy Hopkins gives them a dangerous offensive weapon and Fuller should play. RBs Hyde and Duke Johnson were good pick ups to replace Lamar Miller (ACL). Sure, Clowney is off to Seattle but got some good defensive talent in the draft and in the offseason. New Orleans is loaded but overvalued here considering some key defensive players out. We'll look for Houston to hang around. 

49ers/Bucs 4:25: Arians should restore winning to Bucs team that hasn't been relevant since the Jon Gruden days. It should start today against SF that has been quite shaky in the early stages of both seasons under Shanahan. Garoppolo, recovering from ACL, was shaky virtually all pre-season. TB's defense, which was pitiful the last few years under DC Mike Smith, will be much improved under Todd Bowles. Offensively, the Bucs emphasized offensive line in the off-season and we should see the improved results here vs SF's hot shot new edge rushers...Arians is 11-4 as a pick or home dog and should deliver.

Falcons/Vikings 1:00: Atlanta should be much improved this year. Last year, defensive injuries hurt them and the offensive line struggled. This year, the defense is getting healthy as LB Deion Jones (foot) is finally healthy. In addition, CB Trufant should be good to go. Offensively, Falcons focused on bolstering their offensive line through the draft and acquisitions. It should pay off in dividends as they are loaded with offensive skill weaponry: Julio Jones, Sanu, Ridley, RB Freeman, QB Ryan and throw in TE Hooper. Vikings always tough under Zimmer but not sold on QB Cousins. And numbers on both sides of the ball were down for Minnesota last year. Falcons' HC Quinn is 3-1 ATS in road openers and we'll roll with him.

Ravens/Dolphins 1:00: Ravens' HC Harbaugh not only the king of pre-season (17-0 run) but pretty solid in Week 1 at 8-1 SU/ATS; as a matter of fact, since 2014, Ravens have held Week 1 opponents to just 10 PPG / 227 YPG. Miami, however, stripped of talent and Flores will have trouble improving a run stop unit in the bottom tier of the NFL, especially against electrifying QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore the call. 

Bills/Jets 1:00: Bills have had success in this series at New York including a 41-10 waxing last season. Jets did avenge that loss but Bills hold a grudge well. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS on the road with revenge in season openers. And they're 3-0 ATS in the first of consecutive away games. Josh Allen has some new weapons to go to this year in rookie RB Singletary, Cole Beasley and John Brown. And defensively, the #2 defense in the NFL adds super athletic DE Ed Oliver! Jets have a few big time additions too in RB Bell (19 months since taking a snap) and #1 draft choice Quinnen Williams. However, HC Gase dropped in numbers running the offense in Miami and 2nd year QB Darnold faces a tough test. Bills with the upset.

Packers/Bears 8:20: Not a big play for GB QB Rodgers has inflicted plenty of heartbreak to the Bears over his terrific career; however, I do believe the stability of the Bears, coming off a 12 win campaign, will win out in this one. Nagy will not have super DC Fangio (Denver) to call the defense; nevertheless, Chuck Pagano has 10 returning starters plus some good depth to take command with. The Packers, however, have to change their entire system on both sides of the ball and rev up a new culture under HC LaFleur. I see a more seamless transition with the Nagy organization and will give the Bears the edge on a field where they covered 7 of 9 last year.  

Patriots/Rams 6:30: Tough decision on selection here. Super Bowl dogs have been MONEY this century and hard to dismiss the Rams, which are loaded with talent. One of the key reasons for choosing LA is that they've had a chance to sit back and diagnose Belichick defensive film on how he slowed high flying KC. Patriots used the high risk Cover 0 in passing downs in areas of the field where they could have been burned. Rams' HC McVay will surely school QB Goff on effective audibles before the play clock expires. My concern is the loss of Cooper Kupp (ACL) who is a guy NE would have had trouble with. His replacement - Josh Reynolds - is not ready for prime time. But Goff does have some big check down targets in TEs' Everett and Higbee. Gurley should make up for a poor NFC Championship. And C.J. Anderson is actually hitting holes better than Gurley now. Then there is former Patriot - Cooks and Woods who are always a vertical threat. Belichick will have his hands full taking away the best weapons for there are numerous of them. And sure, the Patriots' offense is loaded too. Edelman is a big game nightmare for DCs. Then there's James White out of the backfield; there's Sony Michel, Gronk, and throw in Hogan and Dorsett. Yes, Brady has targets and a line that's protected him from falling in the dirt throughout the playoffs. What was impressive though, is the run stop unit of the Rams in the playoffs. The regular season worst but held some super star backs of Elliot, Ingram and Kamara to a combined 93 yards /2.27 YPC in the playoffs! So, we'll look for Wade Phillips to dial up some more magic since he has some lock down corners and the game's best defensive player - MVP Aaron Donald. Technically, Patriots just 2-5 ATS in Super Bowls. If they were an underdog, that would be an easy call. But they're not. We'll give the edge to the Rams to stick around and keep it tight. 

Patriots/Chiefs 6:40: Realize Patriots lost 5 games on the road and going to one of the most difficult stadiums to play; however, it's January and Brady will be locked in. His surrounding cast did a great job in blasting the Chargers last week. And surely, Edelman, White and Gronk have the playoff moxie to deliver in January. Patriots so well detailed in design this time of year, difficult to go against them. And not sold on KC defense as of yet. Patriots' brilliant OC McDaniel will find a way for Brady to dissect it. And offensively, pressure put on Mahomes who is in uncharted territory. He's surely answered the bell on most occasions this year, but Belichick should have another great scheme to take away his favorite weapons - Hill and Kelce. Patriots should continue to play locked in and deliver. 

Rams/Saints 3:05: November 4th, the Rams traded blows with the Saints for nearly the entire game but ultimately fell short giving up a late explosive play to Michael Thomas that sealed the Rams fate. Keep in mind, however, CB Talib, wasn't playing and loose canon Marcus Peters, who got torched by Brees, was battling a calf injury. Saints juggernaut offense seemed unstoppable then until it ran into Dallas November 29th. Ever since, Saints' offense never reclaimed that unstoppable force production. Saints are on an 0-4 ATS slide.  Rams' DC Phillips should make the needed adjustments to force Michael Thomas and Kamara off their game. And Saints' G Peat, who had a tough go last week being flagged 4X and experiencing trouble with Fletcher Cox, won't get catch a break this week against Aaron Donald. Rams, on the other hand, got the run game cooking last week vs Dallas as C.J. Anderson ran wild. He's an additional weapon to add to the already dangerous weaponry of Woods, Cooks, Higbee and Reynolds at the disposal for Goff. Rams the call. 

Eagles/Saints 4:40: At first glance, the revenge minded Eagles seem a likely choice; however, well rested Saints dangerous at home especially vs teams with winning road records at 25-6 ATS. November 18th, Brees carved up the Eagles' secondary spreading the ball around to veterans, rookies and replacement players with ease. Today, another vertical threat - Ted Ginn Jr. has been added to the mix with Williams to stretch a shaky Eagles' secondary even further. And Kamara the Eagles didn't and shouldn't have an answer for. Sure, Foles is working magic but believe it ends here. Saints the call.  

Eagles/Saints 4:40: On November 18th, the Eagles had no answer for stopping Brees and company. The Eagles pass rush was non-existent as Brees set quickly and fired missiles compiling 363 yards and 4 TD passes to four different receivers (Kamara, Carr, Williams, Smith). Today, Brees has an additional vertical threat who's back in the fray over the last few games - Ted Ginn Jr. Eagles' secondary playing better but still no match at this location. Eagles' offense is gelling behind Nick Foles. Foles should be able to help manufacture points against a sliding Saints' defense that's allowed 28 and 33 points over their last two games, respectively. Eagles are 22-8 O/U as a traveler. Saints are 21-9-1 O/U in their last 31 home tilts and 6-0 O/U at home in the playoffs. This series had recent high numbers and I expected the number to be set around 53 or 54. I'll take the value here and make this a Top Play with Over 51. 

Chargers/Patriots 1:05: Been on the bandwagon of the Chargers all season and admire Phillip Rivers, Keenan Allen and that Chargers' defense; however, it's January and the stakes are high. Well, you know what that means: Patriots' stars shine the brightest: Brady, Gronk , Edelman and the well coached defense usually show up. And the rigors of extensive travel should finally catch up with Los Angeles. Originally thought this line should open at Patriots -6' or -7. Heart with Los Angeles but true value and handicapping sense go with New England. 

Cowboys/Rams 8:15: Cowboys' defense established a blueprint on how to stop high flying New Orleans on November 29th. Kris Richard's defensive acumen fortified a talented group of players.  A marked improvement in the pass rush should give Goff trouble. Goff's completion percentage dwindles sharply vs defenses in the top tier of the NFL. Sure, Gurley will be back but Cowboys' stop unit solid most of the year and there are concerns about the Rams' offensive line that underachieved vs teams above .500. Rams have lost 7 straight ATS vs winning teams. Cowboys have the run game with Elliot to give them trouble. Remember, Rams' run stop unit 28th in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC. Elliot should keep slow that fierce pass rush down to enable Prescott to hit play action with Cooper, Beasley, Gallup and newfound target - TE Jarwin. And of course, Elliot out of the backfield is as dangerous as it gets at times against a fierce pass rush. Cowboys have won outright on all three occasions when cast as a TD dog this season and I expect them to cover here. 

Colts/Chiefs 4:35: Colts ability to run the football this season along with tightening the bolts on the defense side of the ball are two of the big reasons why they're in the divisional playoffs; of course, the biggest reason is QB Andrew Luck and a patchwork offensive line that's overachieved. I'm going to look for Marlon Mack to carry the load against the 32nd run stop unit thus allowing Andrew Luck to do his thing with a talented cast of receivers - Hilton and Ebron. On the other side of the ball, Colts' defense was the stingiest int he NFL since Week 7 allowing just 16.4 PPG. What is a concern is KC's Kelce. Colts' defense has had trouble with tight ends this season. And Tyreek Hill is surely one of the most dangerous all purpose players in the NFL; however, Colts have been great at adjustments and finding ways of winning. Colts 7-0 ATS vs teams above .500 and 7-1 ATS in KC. Chiefs' Andy Reid just 1-4 ATS with Chiefs in playoffs. I'm going to look for Luck and company to move the football while eating clock to keep the explosive KC offense off the field. Colts deliver. 

Eagles/Bears 4:40: Eagles making a nice run winning 5 of last 6 games to get here. Foles has proven he is a big game QB and the stage is not too big for him. Sure, Bears edge rusher Mack is a beast but keep in mind that the Eagles' offensive line did a bang up job against other dominant pass rushers including DeMarcus Lawrence, Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt. When Foles starts off strong, he has a tendency to stay strong and it will be important to get it going early today. I'll bet he will. He has some good targets in Sproles, former Bear - Jeffery and Ertz to put a dent in the #1 defense. On the other hand, not sure QB Trubisky can handle the big stage yet. Sure, he's at home where he's comfortable and the Eagles' pass defense has taken a lot of heat; however, remember, the Eagles' pass rush disrupted the timing of some pretty good offenses during their run including the Rams' and QB Goff. We'll look for Eagles' DT Cox and company to wreak havoc again. Eagles the call. 

Chargers/Ravens 1:05: Chargers have been a nasty road team at 7-1 SU/ATS and I'm staying on them today. Ravens' electric QB Jackson snuck up on them in the first encounter but the Chargers had time to scheme and prepare for his mobility today. Chargers will continue to choose speed over size in their defensive personnel with six defensive backs to combat the elusiveness of Lamar Jackson. Chargers' defensive backs match well with Baltimore receivers and I like the defensive line presence of Ingram and Bosa to disrupt Jackson in the pocket. On the other side of the ball, Phillip Rivers finally has the supporting cast he needs to make a run in the playoffs. He has the resiliency to overcome early breakdowns, interceptions and sacks to scorch a team late. Sure, the Ravens' defense is awesome but Chargers will clean up their game this time around and deliver. 

Seahawks/Cowboys 8:15: Seahawks have been my big ticket winner for the year; after all, I've ridden them for most of the season and I'm not jumping off now. Seattle is an incredible 25-5-1 ATS in NFL Prime Time games under Pete Carroll. Sure, the defense is spotty against the run and Elliot and company are licking their chops to avenge the earlier season loss. Since then the offensive line has been overhauled and WR Cooper has been added while the defense has stepped up its game; however, Seattle has gotten better as well. Like the Seahawks' run game with Carson as the Seahawks found their identity after the third game of the year and they've been solid since. QB Wilson is a big time QB and he's in good rhythm with Lockett and Baldwin. And with TE Dissley out, we'll look for Vannett to step up his game. Seattle will find a way.   

Colts/Texans 4:35: Both teams equipped with big time QBs and playmakers. We'll give the edge to Indy. Andrew Luck torched Romeo Crennel's 29th rated pass defense for 863 yards with 6 TDs and 1 INT in 2 matchups this season. Yes, that is not a misprint - 863 yards! Crennel still hasn't figured him out and Luck may get sacked a few more times by the incredibly talented defensive line; however, Luck will find the matchup advantages whether it be to WR Hilton, TE Ebron or check downs to his backs. Also, having 908 yard rusher - Mack behind a very good offensive line gives us comfort on the offensive end. And Colts' DC Eberflus did a bang up job with the defense - huge improvement from last year. Surely LB Darius Leonard is a big part of the success. Texans'QB Watson is outstanding and he's got great supporting cast; however, red zone struggles could continue here. Colts deliver. 

Broncos/Raiders 8:15: Possibly the last time Oakland plays in the Oakland Coliseum, we'll take Oakland to be emotionally charged for this one. Oakland, which is in limbo as to where they play next year, should put forth a good effort tonight. They're seeking to avenge the Week Two 20-19 loss. Actually, QB Carr has done pretty well in his last 3 games vs Denver - 122.8 QB rating with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. He still has TE Jared Cook (63 Rec / 6 TDs) and Doug Martin out of the backfield. Both teams are similar with pedestrian offensive attacks and certain holes in defenses that can be exploited. Oakland will have to get the run game going to keep Von Miller and Chubb from getting up field too fast. Defensively, Oakland has to shut down RB Lindsay who is approaching 1000 yards rushing. And Oakland has to do a better job at creating timely blitz opportunities to get more sacks; after all, they have a league low 12. One thing I like is that Gruden is a strong 11-2 ATS when less than .500 at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. We'll roll with it and take the MNF home dog. 

Broncos/Raiders 8:15: Heavy "under" trends for both teams in a series that is 0-4 O/U in its last 4 meetings and 1-6 in its last 7. Both offenses rank in the bottom tier of the NFL in production. Denver is ravaged with injuries to their receiving corps and Oakland no longer has that vertical threat (Cooper gone to Dallas) and relies mostly on TE Cook. We'll look for another low scoring game here. 

Chiefs/Seahawks 8:20: Both teams coming off division losses but I like Seattle at home in this one. The Seahawks, 23-10-1 ATS in December, are prime timers under Pete Carroll at 25-5-1 ATS. Seattle surely has a prime time QB who is at his best when the lights shine brightest. Russell Wilson is having another strong year (3,025 passing yards, 31 TD / 6 INT and, as always, dangerous with his feet). Wilson has WR Baldwin healthy for the first time this season. Him and Lockett should continue to impress. But it's the bruising Seattle run game that should put a major dent in the KC defense to allow Wilson to do his thing. Chris Carson should eclipse 1000 yards for the season tonight vs a KC run stop unit that allows 5 YPC. We'll look for Seattle to run the rock successfully, eat clock and keep the explosive KC offense off the field. Seattle's defense has shown improvement as the season progressed. LB K.J. Wright is back tonight. He'll be limited but surely give his teammates an emotional lift. Chiefs falling off in production at 0-4-1 ATS and vulnerable here. 

Texans/Eagles 1:00: Foles has shown he is a big momentum QB. If he is on early in games, he has a tendency to stay on and finish. We'll look for him to be on his game today. He has the supporting cast doing the job. The offensive line is holding up well. RB Josh Adams has been a surprise success. And Ertz and Jeffery continue to be great go-to-guys. On the other hand, Houston's QB Watson is running for his life in games. He was sacked 6 times last week and faces the sack happy Eagles (35 on year). And without RB Lamar Miller breaking big runs, more pressure put on Watson. And keep in mind the Texans' top receiver - Hopkins is running on a tender ankle. Texans are notoriously sluggish in December at 1-8-1 ATS and should face trouble against the surging Eagles. 

Analysis to follow...

Saints/Panthers 8:15: Carolina has stumbled badly since the midpoint of the season and will need a serious 3-0 revenge motivated streak to have a chance at the playoffs. It starts and ends with New Orleans whom they play in twice over a three week span. I like the Panthers chances here. Carolina has been very competitive all season at Bank of America Stadium. They've covered 8 of the last 11 games at home. Saints were virtually unstoppable most of the season until they ran into Dallas in Week 13. Remember, Dallas was a home dog and staged the blueprint on how to play New Orleans. The Saints proceeded to be sluggish at TB last week in the first half before a few critical errors by the Bucs led to a Saints scoring fest late. Carolina still a confident team and dangerous with McCaffrey as the go-to-guy. Saints have struggled guarding speedy backs out of the backfield this season - one of the weaknesses of their overall staunch defense. Saints are just 1-10 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. And New Orleans isn't exactly a MNF moneymaker at 2-5 ATS. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a division game. Carolina has been money at home in December and with triple revenge here plus added bulletin board material after last year's playoff loss, Carolina should get er done. 

Tampa Bay/Baltimore 1:00: Baltimore still in the hunt for a playoff birth and should dispatch the fading Bucs. TB is coming off a disappointing loss to New Orleans after an impressive early showing only to collapse late. Baltimore's top tier defense has a nasty bite and should give QB Winston more trouble. Baltimore's QB Lamar Jackson is doing well as the starter. It's also good to know Flacco will be ready too. He shredded TB's secondary last time he faced them in October of 2014 for 300+ yards and 5 TDs. Baltimore the call. 

Detroit/Buffalo 1:00: Dome teams usually struggle in inclement weather in December and this will be a tough task for Detroit to rainy/cold Buffalo off a win at Arizona last week. Detroit has not had great success in December (44-71 SU). The Lions have a number of injuries they're dealing with and they'll be lucky to get another win this year. Buffalo has a respectable defense and the offense is gradually getting better with QB Josh Allen. Buffalo has won the stat battle in 4 of their last 5 games and barring turnovers here, should deliver including on the score board. 

Cowboys/Colts 1:00: Big reason for the Cowboys turnaround that hasn't been discussed. Sure, the obvious is their acquisition of WR Cooper and the retooling of their offensive line. And much of their defensive turnaround should be attributed to Coach Kris Richard who's taken a bigger role in the defensive design, coordination and calling. Last time Colts' QB Luck faced Dallas, he had a miserable game. This Cowboys' defense won't make it easy on him again. Offensively, like the Cowboys quality mix of RB Elliot and now vertical threat Cooper. Colts off huge win over Houston last week could lead to mild letdown here. Colts 5-12-2 ATS off SU win. Cowboys the call. 

Cardinals/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have no business laying double digits to anybody. Their defense has lots of holes and offensively can't find a run game to fill injured Freeman's shoes. Cardinals still competitive and do have a decent secondary and a DE in Chandler Jones who can get after the QB. Sure, Arizona's offense is pathetic but still has weaponry in Fitzgerald, and RB David Johnson and respectable rookie QB Rosen. Cardinals should get the run game going against an injury ravaged Falcons' defense that allows 5 YPC. Cardinals are a respectable 3-1-1 ATS on the road and sport a 17-8 December ledger. Arizona the call. 

Browns/Broncos 8:20: Ever since Hue Jackson was fired, Browns' QB Mayfield sports the 3rd best passer rating in the NFL behind only Brees and Mahomes. Browns' OC Kitchens has opened up the offense for Baker and it's working. We'll look for Mayfield to work a Denver defense that's regressed to last in the NFL against the pass since Week 10. Denver has an injury riddled secondary with Chris Harris (fibula), Brock (ribs) and Yiadon (shoulder) on the mend. On the other hand, Browns' defense is opportunistic and DE Garrett can get after the QB. We'll grab the Browns here.

Chargers/Chiefs 8:20: Chargers don't get the support they need at their temporary home in Carson, CA but love playing on the road where they've won and covered 5 of 6 including outright wins at the tough venues of Seattle and Pittsburgh. Sure, the Chargers have lost 9 straight in this series including Game 1 of this season; however, this is the best the Chargers have collectively been in terms of balanced offense - with a run game to help record breaking QB Rivers - and a Top 10 well balanced defense in virtually every category. Yes, KC has the explosive offense and will be tested again with QB Mahomes. But running back position is thin with Hunt (cut) and Ware (hamstring) not on the field. And game changing WR Tyreek Hill (heel and wrist) still on the mend on a short week. And I don't trust the KC defense which ranks in the bottom tier of the NFL in virtually every category. LA has the prime time makeup (5-1 ATS on Thursdays) and like their grit on both sides of the ball. And if RB Gordon can't go, Justin Jackson is more than capable of keeping the run game rolling behind a solid O-Line.

Vikings/Seahawks 8:15: Vikings not quite in a desperation mode but badly need a win over the NFC Wild Card frontrunner - Seahawks. I'm not liking their 2-9 ATS MNF ledger nor am I liking their 1-7 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Vikings inconsistent in their passing game with QB Cousins sacked 30 times. Seahawks' Clark and Reed (16' sacks collectively) are licking their chops. The Seahawks will add some linebacker depth with Kendricks (suspension) now eligible. Seahawks gradually getting back to Pete Carroll defense as the season progresses. They should be fired up in front of one of the loudest fan bases in the NFL. Offensively, the Seahawks are leading the league in rushing (149 YPG) and one of the three headed monsters who run the rock - Carson (finger) is good to go. Also, Baldwin (groin) should be a go. And Russell Wilson is on his game with 11 TDs/0 INTs over the last 4 games. Hard to steer away from Pete Carroll this time of year with a 22-9-1 ATS mark in December; what's more, Carroll is an amazing 24-5-1 ATS in prime time games. Seahawks keep it rolling. 

Rams/Bears 8:20: Rams have demonstrated road toughness and should measure up to the task here. Sure, it's freezing cold in Chicago now but plenty of the Rams' roster has experienced cold temperatures including WR Cooks, QB Goff, DT Donald, CBs Talib and Peters, and more. Bears' defense is outstanding and leads the league in forcing turnovers; however, it was exposed last week at NY. And remember, Rams' defense is right behind tied with Seattle in forcing turnovers and can surely sack the QB. Trubisky (shoulder) is back in the fray and he'll try to avoid drop back vertical routes with the flush pocket extraordinaire - Aaron Donald leading the charge. But DE Fowler can handle Trubisky spilling to him. Trubisky is not yet a prime time QB as demonstrated last season vs Green Bay, this season at GB, and this season against Seattle (2 INTs). Edge to the Rams who are at the elite level with Chicago still nipping at their heels. 

Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals feeling pretty good about themselves after going to historic Lambeau Field and pulling off the big upset. And considering their offensive line injuries, they got the running game going (182 yards!). We'll look for a carry over here. Cardinals' defense on the surface looks bad; however, a closer look reveals a strong third down offense, limited explosive plays, and they get after the QB with 38 sacks! Detroit's offense struggles with virtually no vertical threat, limited running game with K. Johnson out, and poor on third down conversions. Cardinals should lock C Patrick Peterson on Lions' go-to-guy - Golladay and wreak havoc on QB Stafford. Cardinals a sweet 12-2 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points vs non division teams. With the home team in this series at 12-1 ATS, the dog at 5-1 ATS and Detroit 0-7 ATS in Arizona, I like our chances here.

Giants/Redskins 1:00: Injury ravaged Redskins in a downward spiral and will only get worse from here. Monday, as Mark Sanchez went on the playing field, the Redskins were doomed. Of course, Adrian Peterson provided a glimmer of hope with his 90 yard run; however, it all went to crap from there. Sanchez averaged 4.8 yards per catch on his throws, threw an interception, and game over. With a limited prep week, rash of more injuries along offensive line, and a despondent team morale, Redskins will have trouble staying in this one. Sure, their defense is respectable but definitely not dominant enough to overcome what should be excessive three & outs or turnovers from here out. And the signing of journeyman QB Josh Johnson is, by far, no comforting feeling. Giants are showing signs of life and have the explosive weaponry to put points on the board. This line shifted to NYG (-3) and we'll increase our rating a half a star in the process. Giants the call. 

Colts/Texans 1:00: One of my preseason picks to get to the AFC Championship was Houston. At this stage of the season it looks good; however, Colts fighting for their playoff lives and will be eliminated by virtue of a loss here. Sure, at first glance, the spread looks miniscule with Watson and company running like a well oiled machine while the defense is digging in on opponents. Nevertheless, I'm grabbing the points here. QB Luck is a dangerous 24-9 ATS off a SU loss. He should have his favorite weapon - Hilton (shoulder) - available. And TE Ebron (back) should be good to go too. Luck and company looking to avenge their earlier season 34-31 loss. Luck was sacked 4 times in that game and I do realize the Texans' capability of getting to the QB; however, Colts' O-line revamped since then (Nelson LG only remains) and Luck has been protected well since. Indy 4-1 ATS in Houston. Soft spot for Houston which is a mere 2-7 ATS in December. With the Colts 7-2 ATS after scoring less than 15 points, look for Luck and company to amp up their game here. 

Jaguars/Titans 8:20: Titans still in the hunt for a playoff spot by virtue of their dramatic come from behind win over the Jets. Titans have demonstrated prime time winning football this season delivering in impressive fashion at Dallas on November rone5th. Tonight, we'll look for Mariota and company to deliver another season sweep over Jacksonville. Jacksonville last week relied on defensive excellence shutting down Indianapolis. Tonight, could be more difficult even with RB Fournette back in the lineup. Sure, Kessler didn't throw any interceptions and managed the game well enough to allow the defense to win the game; however, tonight, Tennessee offers a more difficult task. Jacksonville has been a poor traveler unless in London. And coach Marrone is a disappointing 1-13 SU / 3-11 ATS off an upset win as a dog. Titans 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home tilts and should deliver. 

Redskins/Eagles 8:15: The bit of extra time should aid the Redskins as they need to mend offensive linemen and get back RB Chris Thompson. In addition, McCoy had some extra prep time as the starting QB. McCoy had a poor game at Dallas on the 22nd with 3 INTs. We'll look for a better performance here against the thin secondary of the Eagles in a pass defense ranked 29th in the NFL. On the other hand, QB Wentz has had big games vs Washington but 'Skins' defense keeping them in games. Need the Redskins' offense to start clicking. It was encouraging to see TE Vernon Davis do damage against Dallas on the 22nd. Now need 'Skins' wideouts to bring their prime time game. Redskins have been a prime time flop so we'll tread lightly here. We will take the points on account of the Eagles' trouble covering this season and injury decimated secondary. Redskins are 3-1 ATS at Philadelphia and in that double revenge mode from getting swept last season. Moreover, they're in a fight to still win the NFC East.

Chargers/Steelers 1:00: Chargers a dangerous team now that Bosa is back. Like how they get after the QB and are playing well on the road (4-1 ATS). And one of the keys to the resurgence of Phillip Rivers and the Chargers' offense is the run game. Yes, Melvin Gordon (knee) is out but Austin Ekelor (5.8 YPC) can surely carry the load. Steelers always dangerous off a loss but Chargers' HC Anthony Lynn now 8-1 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss. Moreover, Los Angeles is 10-0 ATS as a dog of less than 5 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Chargers stay competitive here.  

49ers/Seahawks 4:20: Seahawks have beaten the 49ers nine straight times going 6-2-1 ATS in the process. Seattle has handled the 49ers at CenturyLink Field at 6-1-1 ATS. 49ers are stumbling down the stretch off two straight losses and will see no post-season. Seattle, however, is good shape to claim an NFC Wild Card birth if they win their remaining five games. Seattle has a tendency to beat the weaker teams; after all, they're 12-1 ATS vs .400 or less opponent with revenge off back-to-back SU losses. Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing and should get back on track today after struggling with the run last week at Carolina. SF offense does have a strong running back in Breida (5.8 YPC) but leading receiver Goodwin (personal) is out and QB Mullens was shaky (2 INTs) at defenseless TB last week. Seattle's stadium is deafening and it won't get easier. We'll lay the wood here. 

Vikings/Patriots 4:25: The bye week did New England justice as they got healthier and reloaded for a strong December run. NE is one of the great late season teams with a December ledger of 66-48 ATS including 34-20 ATS at home. Gronk is getting healthier , RB Michel is back in the fray, and QB Brady is in rhythm with his receiving corps. Vikings have not had success vs the Patriots (0-3 ATS) or the AFC East in which they've gone a poor 4-15 SU including laying an egg against Buffalo in Week 3. Patriots usually thrive at home in this price range at this time of year and we'll jump on them here.  

Ravens/Falcons 1:00: Not sold on the Ravens and Lamar Jackson yet; after all, they're two straight wins were at home against lightweights Cincinnati and Oakland. Today, they hit the road sporting a 2-8-1 ATS mark following a SU win of more than 14 points. Atlanta has a faint shot at reaching playoffs with zero margin for error and probably need a little help from other teams. Nevertheless, we'll look for the Falcons to show up and come out firing. Their receiving weapons of Julio Jones, Sanu and Ridley should show up against the top rated Ravens' defense. And Matt Ryan should be laser focused at home. Defensively, Atlanta gets a shot in the arm with one of the NFL's best OLBs in Deion Jones set to play. Don't know how much he'll play but his presence will surely help out the struggling secondary of Atlanta. The Falcons used rookie WR Russell Gage to simulate projected starter Lamar Jackson in practice. Jackson's' first start on the road won't be easy with a thinning backfield. RB Collins (foot) is day to day. 

Saints/Cowboys 8:20: Hard to dismiss the Saints covering nine straight. The offensive juggernaut sports the top offense in the league; now, the Saints' defense has turned it up several notches. New Orleans' defense went from near last in the league in pass defense to #11 over the last three games; furthermore, over the last 5 games they forced 11 turnovers including 8 interceptions. Sure, Prescott, Elliot and now Cooper are big weapons; however, Saints possess the #1 run stop unit in the NFL and the secondary talent of New Orleans is starting to materialize. And offensively, Brees has been virtually unstoppable all season, most notably on prime time (review against Washington). His prime time record in his career is off the chart. For Dallas, they laid an egg on their last prime time appearance at home earlier this month against Tennessee on MNF. And the Dallas defense has had problems stopping opponents on 3rd down (29th in league). Technically, Cowboys are 1-11 ATS at home under Garrett vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Saints should stay hot on the road. 

Titans/Texans 8:15: Revenge game for the Texans - who were beaten Week 2. I do realize Houston is a much better team now reeling off 7 straight wins; however, 5 of those by 3 or fewer points. Texans do have a tendency to allow teams back in games. I liked the way the Titans rose to the occasion as a prime time team at Dallas in Week 9. Titans are now 7-0 ATS on MNF. As for Houston, a prime time flop on MNF at 2-10 ATS; of course, QB Watson could easily change that for he is a prime time player. Nevertheless, I like the Titans' red-zone defense which ranks second in the NFL. As for the Texans' red zone offense, they've struggled at 29th in NFL in that role. Sure, Hopkins is a major weapon getting targeted on 37% of receiving yards. But Vrabel should have a well scripted bracketing plan on him. And remember, Watson has been sacked 33 times. Titans can bring pressure and won't make it easy on him. Offensively, Mariota (stinger) is good to go. He did not play in the first matchup and not the easiest guy as a DC to prepare for. We'll take the points with the Titans and their strong run game. 

Giants/Eagles 1:00: Hard to dismiss the fact that the Giants are a sweet 20-4 ATS as a dog of 5 or more points following a SU win. Furthermore, Giants' HC Shurmur is 8-1 ATS with revenge against an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. And the Eagles have been a money burning 1-11 ATS as a home favorite off a SU loss vs an opponent with revenge. Giants ascending while Eagles falling fast. We'll grab this momentum play as Eli Manning finds more of his old magic. 

Browns/Bengals 1:00: Browns overdue to win a game in this series after dropping 7 straight to the Bengals. It should come here as we get word that superstar WR A.J. Green (toe) is downgraded to doubtful. He is a difference maker. With Marvin Jones and Eifort already out, QB Dalton has limited weaponry at his disposal. Browns are well rested after coming off big win against Atlanta. Browns are 9-1 ATS as division dogs of 3 or less with revenge. Like the energy Mayfield brings to the field and Chubb is starting to pound the rock. Marvin Lewis is trying to repair what his fired DC Austin screwed up. Bengals are 31st in scoring defense and their season is in balance. We'll look for Cleveland to deliver. 

49ers/Buccaneers 1:00: 49ers have been able to put some points on the board as a traveler. And most likely, SF will visit the end zone frequently against the worst defense in the NFL. TB's DC Duffner has as much a clue on how to stop an offense as fired DC Mike Smith. TB's offense is always playing catch up with either Fitzpatrick or Winston. Both QBs collectively have 23 INTs. We'll look for more of an air raid from TB. TB can score and sport a 9-2 O/U run in their heavy "over" ledger this season. SF should have a good offensive game plan under offensive savvy Shanahan. SF is 15-4 O/U following a bye. This series is 4-1 O/U and we aren't scared of the posted number. 

Seahawks/Panthers 1:00: Seahawks have been competitive in every road game this season and sport a 17-8-2 ATS mark in their last 27 road games vs teams with winning home records. Seattle is right there in the fight for the NFC Wild Card and Carolina is showing signs of fading despite their perfect home record and overall winning record at 6-4. The Panthers got blown out by Pitt two weeks ago on MNF and then coughed up a late lead against the mediocre Lions. Panthers were outgained in rushing yards in both those games and now face the leading rushing team in the NFL. RBs Carson, Davis and Penny are carrying the load well; moreover, QB Russell Wilson is having another superb season (23 TD/5 INT). I'm concerned with WR Baldwin (groin) who is questionable at this time, but Lockett and Moore are doing a fine job getting open. On the other hand, Seattle's defense needs to force more turnovers and address McCaffrey today. Leading WR Funchess will be out but there are plenty of weapons at the disposal of QB Newton. We'll look for Carroll to have his men well prepared and deliver. Seattle a perfect 11-0 ATS as a conference dog off a SU/ATS win. 

Saints/Falcons 8:20: Hard to go against an offensive machine that's been virtually unstoppable for most of the season. And Atlanta does not have the defensive depth to hang. Moreover, New Orleans' defense has been playing very well as of late - stopping the run, able to rush the passer, and a ball hawking secondary. Saints the call. 

Redskins/Cowboys 4:30: Cowboys gathering steam in the NFC East but not willing to lay a TD against a tough division rival. Redskins have been decimated with injuries along their offensive front, and now QB Alex Smith (leg). Enter career backup Colt McCoy who has done a nice job when called upon. He's got some talented receivers and AD still has some juice left in him. Defensively, Washington can stall out teams their comparable with. New Orleans and Atlanta had playmakers who Washington couldn't stop; however, Dallas has less of them. Sure, Elliot and Amari Cooper and very good, but the Redskins' secondary matches well against everyone else. Dallas is a mere 1-7 ATS in home games on Thursdays. And they're 0-4 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games. With the road team in this series 7-2 ATS, we'll look for Washington to hang around.