Los Angeles/Washington 1:00: Both of these defenses should be solid this season. Washington, led by nightmare to QBs DE Chase Young, allowed just 4.8 YPP last season (#2 in NFL). And they've made upgrades through the draft including C William Jackson III. On the flip end, veteran journeyman QB Fitzpatrick won't likely have one of his top targets Curtis Samuel (groin). Chargers' offense is loaded with skill personnel but may need time to adjust to new OC Lombardi's system. And QB Herbert won't have versatile RB Ekeler (hamstring). Chargers' defense, however, should be much improved with healthy Bosa, new DC and solid additions through draft and free agency. Washington 1-10 O/U run and 1-6 O/U at home. "Under" it is.

Jaguars/Texans 1:00: This series 1-5 O/U in its last 6 matchups and 0-4 O/U in Houston. I see upgrades defensively on both sides here while the offenses should struggle. Houston has former Chicago Bears HC Lovie Smith as their coordinator. He changed to an odd front and in pre-season it paid dividends with the Texans creating 10 turnovers in 3 games; that's 4 more than Houston achieved all last season! Jaguars didn't look in rhythm offensively in pre-season. Not devoid of talent but thin at RB with Etienne (season ending foot injury) out. Jacksonville's defense should also be better under well respected DC Gus Bradley. They face an offense that doesn't look explosive with Tyrod Taylor who is a pretty good QB; however, he doesn't have much explosive weaponry to go to. Value with the "Under".

Analysis to follow...

Cowboys/Buccaneers 8:20: TB overvalued here. Laying near double digits to a rejuvenated Dallas team with a chip on their shoulder. Cowboys, coming off a sloppy 2020 campaign with QB Prescott going down and a defense that couldn't stop anybody for a large chunk of the season, have made some notable changes that should pay dividends. Prescott is back and the Cowboys' offense, equipped with a lot of skill talent and a solid line despite loss of G Martin, should be able to engineer points vs TB tonight. Realize all 22 starters back for TB this year but tonight will miss FS Whitehead out. On the other hand, former Legion of Boom DC Dan Quinn had time to coordinate a defense with some old and new (LB Parsons) talent that should keep Brady on his heels. Super Bowl winners are generally overhyped early and not good favorites in Game 1 (38%). TB 4-10 Week 1 and Thursday Nights 1-6 ATS; as a matter of fact, Brady had two outright sluggish games on Prime Time last season vs the Saints and Giants. Cowboys have covered 4 of last 5 as a dog and dangerous here. 

Chiefs/Bucs 6:30: Both teams equipped with the best QBs in the NFL, top of the line skill personnel, and defensive playmakers. What separates TB from KC is the fact that the Chiefs have to shuffle offensive linemen on account of T Eric Fisher (Achilles); consequently, Martinas Rankin, who started one game this season, gets the starting assignment to guard Mahomes back. TB's front 7 is playing at a high level including Top 5 pass rush bookends Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett; moreover, TBs' outstanding linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White are menacing not only against the run but are extremely effective and disruptive blitzing as exhibited in two games against Aaron Rodgers. No other team came close to stopping him for the low numbers he posted. The fact is that the Bucs defense was impressive in the playoffs and also got their revenge against Drew Brees. Sure, Tyreek Hill was incredibly effective carving up TB's secondary to the tune of 3 TDs including explosive play 75 and 45 yard scores in the earlier year matchup. TB's DC Bowles has been effective in making the right adjustments and we'll look for him to do so here. He will have outstanding rookie S Winfield Jr. back in center field. Bucs speed at linebacker and emergence of Murphy-Bunting (3 consecutive post-season games with interception) give TB a fighting chance in the red zone to keep Kelce and Hill and Edwards-Helaire at bay. On the other hand, KC defense in red zone not good; as a matter of fact, they've allowed a generous 76.6% scoring there. Of 5 other Super Bowl defenses that had a red zone efficiency rating at or over 60%, those Super Bowl teams went a collective 0-5 in the big game. With Evans (2 TD's first matchup), Gronk (106 yards first game), Brate + Antonio Brown (both probable), and Ronald Jones - overdue to be utilized out of the backfield, Brady should be able to distribute the ball effectively. And lets not forget that Tom Brady is an amazing 41-17-1 as an underdog. We'll grab the points.

Bills/Chiefs 6:40: Bills have been one of the great spread winning teams (12-6 ATS) covering 9 of their last 10 games. I caught them in their spread loss to the Colts on January 9th and I should catch them here. Bills didn't catch a break with linesmakers when Mahomes was cleared from concussion protocol; after all, this line stayed pretty hard at -3 with him in question and solidified on the announcement he was a go. And even with Edwards-Helaire upgraded as a go, line still stayed solid, considering Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran roughshod over the Bills run-stop-unit for 161 yards in the first game. The comfort level on the Bills among bettors is high as they anticipate another payday; on the other hand, Chiefs not getting any love for they've burnt money throughout the season for bettors including their 2-8 ATS slide over last 10 games. With no line adjustment, I'll lay a FG here with KC; after all, Buffalo still struggles with covering TEs and Kelce is arguably the best in game now. Bills' secondary coverage had its share of holes last week but was bailed out by poor decisions by Lamar Jackson and his backup. Sure, Chiefs' defense has its yielding moments but has playmakers - Sorensen and Mathieu in; moreover, CB Breeland is cleared (concussion) and a go; furthermore, linemen Clark and Chris Jones usually step up for DC Spagnuolo in these kind of games. Bottom line, Mahomes has too many weapons with Hill, Kelce, Hardman and adding Edwards-Helaire to the mix. Furthermore, RB Darrel Williams showed he can move the football behind the dominant KC offensive line. Value comes back to the Chiefs today as they clear the low number. 

 Bucs/Packers 3:05: Got this one in early in the week with Packers -3. Line moved to -3' to 4 on news Antonio Brown would be out. Will still stay on the Packers here. Run game working very well with Aaron Jones as they gutted a very good LA Rams' defense last week. If Aaron Jones is able to get cranking today, and I believe he will, Buc's defense won't be able to sit back in zone a majority of the time like they did earlier in the year vs Rodgers. Rodgers and company should make the adjustments on their home turf. TB has been fortunate to avoid frigid temperatures this season but will see them Sunday. Sure, Brady and Gronk won't be affected as much but rest of fair weathered team should stiffen up a bit - similar to the Rams last week - just enough for acclimated Packers to gain a step on them. Defensively, Packers defense much better than what it was October 18th. Preston and Za'Darius Smith are in great form up front and a healthy Kenny Clark adds a more formidable pass rush this time around. From a defensive perspective, Packers should attack the right side where TB is most vulnerable. And with TB's AB out, GB's top corner - Alexander - should lock up on Mike Evans. And Packers' defense will need to adjust to Gronk - who had pretty big game on the 18th. With the addition of Tramon Williams (cut from Baltimore last week), he can add depth to Packers' secondary; after all, he had two stints with the Packers (most recently 2018-19) and knows the system. We'll look for GB to push the right buttons today on their home turf and effectively get to Brady. Packers the call. 

Bucs/Saints 6:40: Bucs looking for double-same- season-revenge including an embarrassing blowout defeat November 8th. Bucs have improved offensively since then as Brady has gotten in rhythm with his receivers including vertical threat Antonio Brown. However, run game still a concern ranking in the bottom of the league. And best RB Jones II still in recovery mode but should play. Saints control one of the best run stop units in the league and have a ball hawking secondary. And because of the lack of run game TB has, Saints' aggressive frontline can pin ears back and attack up field as they did so well on November 8th. Brady is great but still needs a run game to aid in an effective play action game. TB's offensive line is not as good as New Orleans' defensive front. Defensively, DC Bowles very aggressive in his defensive scheme and falls into the hands of savvy veteran Brees. His receiving corps is even healthier than it was in November as Tre'Quan Smith has been activated for this one. The weapons for New Orleans are plentiful including matchup nightmares Kamara and Michael Thomas. Technically, Sean Payton 16-2 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opponent off double-digit ATS win. Moreover, he's 8-1 ATS as a home favorite off back to back SU wins vs greater than .500 opponent with revenge. Saints the call. 

Browns/Chiefs 3:05: Browns have a fighting chance here as they get back a few more important cogs on both sides of the ball. Offensively, All-Pro G Bitonio is back; defensively, Ward and Kevin Johnson are back in the secondary. Bitonio will help aid the powerful ground game that is so important this time of year. And KC run-stop-unit has been in the bottom tier for most of the year allowing 122 YPG. Mayfield has been strong in play action when the run game has been cooking and he's got a pretty healthy receiving corps (Landry, Peoples-Jones, Higgins, TE Hooper, RB Hunt, RB Chubb). Moreover, KC Red Zone defense allowed opponents to score TDs 77% of the time - bottom tier of NFL. Browns' Red Zone offense 3rd in the league reaching pay dirt 74% of the time.  Defensively, Cleveland's Ward and Johnson can aid in playing a Cover 2 shell with man underneath. Kelsey is most important to limit for Browns have been 28th in the NFL vs TEs and he deserves big attention. Browns' will need to generate pass rush from Garrett, Richardson to aid in corralling Mahomes. Mahomes has had 20 days off since last snap. We'll hope for the rust. Bottom line, KC's last 7 wins were by one score or less. They've failed to cover in their last 4 home games, and Browns have momentum and confidence with an effective run game. Browns the call.

Ravens/Bills 8:15: Faded the Bills last week and delivered with the Colts; tonight, jumping on the Bills; on the other hand, had the Ravens last week but will fade them here. Sure, Baltimore took care of the Bills last season roughing up QB Josh Allen in the process. It was a learning year for Josh Allen completing just 58.8% of his passes; this season, however, a bolstered offensive line with good blitz pick up and the NFL's leading receiver in yardage - Stefon Diggs - helped change all that as Allen completed 69.2% of his passes with 37 TD passes and 421 yards rushing. Moreover, when blitzed, Josh Allen has thrown an NFL high 19 TD passes this season. Blitz happy Baltimore could be in for a challenging night. In addition, cold and possible snow won't help fleet footed Lamar Jackson. Buffalo defense under DC Leslie Frazier, improved as the season progressed. We'll grab the Bills here. 

Rams/Packers 4:35: Weather won't be extreme with 34 degree temperature and near 10 MPH winds. Rams possess a tough bunch who should be able to acclimate. Rams' defense #1 in the NFL for good reason. An excellent secondary equipped with guys who can get after the QB without blitzing; consequently, CB Ramsey can man up on Davonte Adams as DC Brandon Staley can implement a variety of blitzes. And love how the Rams' defensive front maintained lane integrity last west vs Russell Wilson. We'll look for Rams to get after QB Rodgers tonight. Offensively, Rams struggling a bit. Goff managed game alright last week and he's capable of doing it again. McVay should once again put him in a position to succeed; after all, the run game is cooking with Cam Akers and possession receiver Kupp (knee bruise) is good to go. Rams 4-0 ATS in January. McVay 8-1 ATS on the road vs opponent with rest. We'll take the TD.

Browns/Steelers 8:15: Steelers get back some healthy bodies including LB Spillane; however, question his game shape since he hasn't taken the field since December 7th. Steelers' defense not what it was early in the season. And that may be a byproduct of being on the field too much to compensate for a sputtering offense. This is a rare year when the Steelers are not a strong run team; as a matter of fact, the Steelers are in the bottom of the NFL in run production with a measly 84 YPG; consequently, that forces QB Roethlisberger to air it out way too much. Steelers have struggled on 3rd down this season and that won't bode well against a pretty good Browns' pass rush led by Miles Garrett. Offensively, Cleveland won't have HC Stefanski (Covid) on the sidelines. Shouldn't be a problem as OC Alex Van Pelt, who closely worked with Baker Mayfield all season, is up for the task; after all, it starts with the top running duo in the NFL in Chubb and Hunt. Mayfield has been highly effective working play action off the running game this season because of the strong run game. Sure, G Bitonio won't be there but Cleveland OK with depth on O-line. Steelers 2-6-1 ATS last 9 playoff games and 1-3-1 ATS last 5 as playoff chalk. We'll look for the Browns to stick around here. 

Ravens/Titans 1:05: Big knock on Lamar Jackson is that he can't win in the playoffs. That chatter should end here. Ravens got it together down the stretch rattling off 6 straight covers following OT loss at home vs Tennessee. The road team has covered the last 3 in this series and we'll look for that scenario to unfold today. Tennessee defense has been shaky virtually all season - allowing nearly 400 YPG. We'll look for Jackson and J.K. Dobbins to get the run game going to open up the play action pass now that TE Andrews, Marquise Brown and Boykin are on the same page now. Tennessee secondary has been torched. Titans' inability to generate a pass rush has left the secondary vulnerable. And the return of Adoree Jackson in Week 15 didn't help as the Titans allowed 34.3 PPG from then on. Ravens 6-0 ATS on the playoff road and 8-3-1 ATS in January. Ravens' defense should outscore the Titans and deliver. 

Ravens/Titans 1:05: Both of these offenses are firing on all cylinders. Derek Henry is virtually unstoppable and the Ravens' defense, at its best, has yet to slow him down. Tannehill has a healthy cast of receivers with A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith which is capable of torching a thin Ravens' secondary. On the other hand, no longer confident in the Titans' defense which has consistently been yielding this season. And the Ravens are starting to close in the Red Zone again. Lamar Jackson and company should turn it up a few notches here. Titans 22-6-1 O/U last 29 games, 5-0 O/U as a home dog. "Over" it is. 

Tampa Bay/Washington 8:15: Washington's top tier defense under DC Del Rio kept them in games and ultimately got them in the playoffs. TB got their pass game cooking as Brady got in rhythm with his talented receiving corps as the season progressed; however, the Buccaneers' run game still a question mark. Ranked 28th in the NFL making Tom Brady, a lot of times, a sitting duck in the pocket. Washington has a pass rush and Chase Young is the real deal. And I don't see Buc's top receiver Evans (knee) being at his best after an ugly hyperextension last week. No one can heal that quickly. Washington defense doesn't give up explosive plays often and their effective pass rush will have Brady checking down more often than not. As for Washington's pedestrian offense, limited vertical threat (McLaurin's ankle) and limited run game (Antonio Gibson's toe) will allow TB's DC Bowles to initiate lots of exotic blitzes behind man coverage. Alex Smith's (calf) mobility limited and not a lot of great offensive options to stretch the field. Washington 0-4 O/U as a dog and 5-11 O/U on the season. We'll stay "under". 

Rams/Seahawks 4:40pm: Like how Seattle's defense got it together late in the year as health, development and discipline came into play. Carlos Dunlap's addition helped significantly with a pass rush, development of WLB Brooks, health of All Pro's MLB Wagner and the versatility of All Pro S Jamal Adams (9' sacks) helped restore order to the start of, perhaps, Legion of Boom II. Not sure who's going to start at QB for Rams but my guess will be Wolford. I backed him and the Rams last week in their easy win and cover over Arizona, but will fade him here. Pete Carroll will have a great defensive game plan to give him trouble. Offensively, Seahawks have their work cut out for them against the NFL's top defense. However, All-Pro QB Wilson will find a way to get the ball to his very good receiving corps - All Pro - Metcalf, Lockett, Moore and quality TE corps and deep backfield. The run game should cook with Carson, Hyde, added from practice squad - Alex Collins and Penny (knee). Seattle the call. 

Colts/Bills 1:05: Bills look unstoppable reeling off 8 straight covers in impressive fashion; however, Colts not intimidated and bring a balanced team to Buffalo. Sure, Josh Allen is tearing up defenses with Diggs, Beasley and McKenzie; however, Colts have a strong front four pass rush with Buckner (ankle), Houston and Autry and a ball hawking secondary with versatile All Pro LB Leonard and All Pro FS Odum that can give Allen problems. Offensively, RB Jonathon Taylor has gotten in a groove behind a solid offensive line led by All-Pro Quenton Nelson. And veteran QB Phillip Rivers has seen just about every defense imaginable in his glorious career. A healthy vertical threat in T.Y. Hilton, and possession receivers Pascal and Pittman with versatile back Hines out of the backfield give the Colts a fighting chance here. Take the TD

Washington/Philadelphia 8:20: Washington wins and they're in. Football Team made a dramatic opening day come from behind win to start the Eagles downward spiral and they never fully recovered. Eagles' DC Swartz won't be back next year and he has limited arsenal to work with tonight with linemen Cox and Barnett out. His secondary has struggled all year. Washington will have Alex Smith (calf) ready and he's got a good supporting cast to deliver the goods. Defensively, is where Washington accelerates. We'll look for them to be on their game. Washington 6-0 ATS as favorites of less than 6 points off back-to-back losses vs opponent with revenge. Washington delivers.

Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: Chargers with a slight edge going into this one. Chiefs, locked in #1 seeding, resting a good portion of their starters including Mahomes, Hill, Bell, Watkins and, perhaps, Kelce. That leaves veteran journeyman QB Chad Henne at the helm without much weaponry. Chargers won't have top pass rusher Bosa (concussion) and S Jenkins, but enough of their defensive nucleus to limit the Chiefs' offense; after all, they played a fully loaded KC team to OT September 20th. With the revenge motive and on a 3-0 SU/ATS win streak, we'll ride the momentum of the Chargers. 

Cardinals/Rams 4:25: Today, Arizona must win or go home for playoffs. Rams need to win or hope for a loss by the Bears. Rams, of course, want to create their own destiny and will fight with who they have. They will be without QB Goff (thumb), leading receiver Kupp (Covid19 list), RB Henderson (ankle). John Wolford makes his first start in the NFL and it obviously will be a pressure cooker environment for the undrafted free agent. Wolford is a gamer. He can air it out and is mobile - as he displayed at Wake Forest. Realize Arizona will throw multiple blitz schemes, mixed coverages, etc to throw him off but he's bright and confident going in. McVay will put him in positions to have success. He should have Cam Akers back and Malcolm Brown (shoulder) also to help take the pressure off him. Moreover, Rams' defense has been awesome virtually all season and it's good to note LB Leonard Floyd (abdominal pain) is good to go. Arizona repeatedly underachieves in moments like these under Kingsbury. QB Murray (knee) is good to go but not 100%. Rams' defense gave him a hard time December 6th and remain a strong force. Rams the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 1:00: Winner here gets to sweat it out later tonight hoping the Eagles pull the upset of Washington. If Washington loses, one of these teams, providing it's not a tie, goes into the playoffs. We'll look for the vengeful Giants to deliver. They gave Dallas all they could handle October 11th in a 37-34 loss. Today, Giants have what it takes to beat Dallas. Former Cowboys' HC and current Giants' OC Garrett now back on the sidelines (Covid19 cleared) should get his revenge. He's got a pretty good run game in heavy sets and Daniel Jones should be prepared. Of course, he's limited in mobility (hamstring) but making inroads from the pocket. Defensively, Giants much better and get back OLB Fackrell who is a difference maker. Cowboys did go on a 3-0 run but wins over Cincinnati, Covid19 decimated SF and Philadelphia are not a ringing endorsement. Over the same time frame, Giants has rough sledding against playoff caliber teams Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore. Giants are on an 0-7 SU skid to Dallas and should upset them today. 

Bills/Patriots 8:15: Heavy "Under" trends support NE. They're 4-10 O/U on the season including 0-6 O/U run. Patriots' offense struggling mightily as passing game in bottom tier of NFL. Patriots will do what they do best offensively and run the football. Bills' defense improving as the season progresses. They've held opponents to 19 or less in 3 of the last 4 games. Patriots' defense in good hands with Belichick. Despite numerous question marks in personnel, the discipline remains in the system. Bills' offense in great rhythm with QB Josh Daniels and WR Diggs leading the way; however, Patriots not going down without a fight and it starts with defense. Bills 0-4 O/U off SU win of 14+. This is the highest 'total' set in this series since 2017. We'll go "under". 

Rams/Seahawks 4:25: Seahawks clinched a playoff birth with win over Washington last week; however, they remain hungry for their first division title since 2016 and want that all important home playoff game that's eluded them since January 2017. Rams, which clinched a playoff birth with the Cardinals losing yesterday, have given the Seahawks trouble since McVay took over as head coach. McVay controls a 5-2 SU edge over his rival Pete Carroll. But Carroll has straightened a few things out on the defensive end since these teams last played. Of course Carlos Dunlap has settled in to be a defensive line sack force. And a healthy S Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks) keeps Seattle in games with his versatility. Offensively, Seattle will have T Shell ready to go and G Simmons did a nice job filling in for Iupati. Seattle's run game still cooking with Carson and Hyde. And Penny, activated a few weeks ago, adds depth to the backfield that's winning the run game almost weekly. Rams will be without RB Cam Akers (ankle). A concern for McVay is his poor 0-6 ATS record on the road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Seattle looking to avenge their November 15th beating and we'll take them!

Colts/Steelers 1:00: Steelers need one more win to secure AFC North title and we'll grab them here. Pittsburgh, on a three game slide, need to get their run game going. They're 31st in the NFL running the football yet found a bit of that old Pittsburgh running attack last week with Benny Snell (84 yards) in their embarrassing MNF loss to Cincinnati. RB Conner is back to add more backfield depth and the Steelers should play better in this spot; after all, they're 9-1 ATS off a double digit SU division loss. Colts are on fire but HC Reich not good in this spot. Colts just 1-8 ATS in last 9 off back-to-back SU wins vs non-division opponent. We'll look for the Steelers to eke out a win here.

Browns/Jets 1:00: Jets were embarrassed last season at MetLife Stadium 23-3 by the Browns and that will be on their minds here. Of course, the Jets are coming off, perhaps, the biggest upset of the year over the Rams. Don't see a fall off here on draft status, etc. They should compete hard. Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and not as bad as their record indicates. They'll be able to be a bit more competitive as well on account that Cleveland will be without FOUR receivers, including Landry, Higgins, Peoples-Jones and Hodge; consequently, that leaves Mayfield having to pass to guys that were on the practice squad last week. Sure, they have the powerful run game to fall on but Jets should load the box and force Mayfield to go to guys he hasn't developed chemistry with. Sure, Cleveland one win away from first playoff birth since 2002. And it won't be easy to accomplish. Cleveland a mere 1-6 ATS as road chalk and got ourselves a play with Jets here. 

Bears/Jaguars 1:00: Big incentive for Bears to deliver after Arizona fell to SF today. It opens the door for the Bears to take a step closer to the playoffs. Bears on a late season surge off two strong wins. They've found their run game after Nagy finally found the right offensive line combination. Bears offensive line busted loose David Montgomery for 100+ yards in 3 of the last 4 games. Today, they face a banged up Jacksonville defense with both starting corners (Jones and Henderson) out. Jacksonville defense allows an NFL worst 418.2 YPG and 30th vs the run allowing 146.5 YPG. Montgomery most likely is a top fantasy pick this week. In addition, Trubisky, who has a respectable 8/3 TD/INT ratio, should stay on track as his top receiver - Allen Robinson is a go. Jacksonville in line for #1 overall pick in draft, sports a 2-11 ATS mark as a non-conference dog of more than 3 points. We will tread lightly however, as Chicago has not been good as a favorite. Nevertheless, we'll ride the winning momentum with Chicago here.  

Dolphins/Raiders 8:15: Dolphins earning there stripes as a favorite and we'll roll with them. Miami now 11-3 ATS for the season and we still have value with them here; after all, they're winning the battle of attrition as they need two wins to secure a playoff birth and I don't think the Raiders can stop them. Marinelli took over as DC and like I indicated last week, not an upgrade. Chargers' Herbert lit up the secondary like a torch. Marinelli not adept at coverage and as it showed last week it will rear its ugly head tonight. Tua should establish his rhythm. Most likely, Raiders will emphasize stopping Breida, Gaskin and Ahmed. Perhaps they will with limited success but see the Dolphins grinding out a win and cover. Flores has this defense playing consistently well. On paper, Dolphins defense middle of the pack but strike gold in two key and most important areas: turnovers (26) and points allowed (18.4 PPG) - #1 in the NFL in both areas. And special teams a plus. Dolphins deliver.

TB/Detroit 1:00: Not a fan of laying near double digits in the NFL but I'll make an exception here. Lions' defense is now last in the league in points allowed, trouble rushing the QB, missed assignments in secondary; consequently, we'll look for explosive plays to hit from the embarrassing wealth of riches Brady has at his disposal. Godwin, Evans, Antonio Brown, Gronk should have a field day. TB doesn't have a run game with Ronald Jones out and Fournette is not an adequate replacement; however, a semblance of a balanced attack can be achieved vs a thinning Detroit defense. On the other hand, love Stafford's toughness and grit but without Golladay, Detroit struggles to win games. He is their big hitter and he's out. TB defense gives up the big play too often but Lions lack of run game (30th in NFL) gives Buc's sack men to tee off on him before he can strike deep. Arians 11-4 ATS as a road favorite vs less than .500 team. And the Buc's have covered 3 of the last 4 at Detroit. TB can clinch a rare playoff opportunity here and we'll look for them to take care of business with authority. 

Vikings/Saints 4:30: Vikings clinging to playoff lives (2% chance) desperate for a win while needing help from Chicago and Arizona to lose. Vikings are banged up defensively and very thin at LB and in the secondary. They do, However, have an offense that can move the football. Pro Bowlers RB Cook and WR Jefferson headline athletes who can keep them in the game. Fortunately, the Saints, which are already in playoffs but can improve seeding with win, are not in rhythm off consecutive losses. Brees is working his way back but limited in weaponry with his favorite receiver Michael Thomas on IR. Moreover, they're line is banged up to give the Vikings' struggling defense a chance to stay competitive. Vikings' HC Zimmer is a sweet 21-6-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss. We'll take the TD.

Steelers/Bengals 8:15: Steelers destroyed the Bengals 36-10 back on November 15th. And that was with Joe Burrow at the helm of the Bengals' offense. Sure, the Steelers' defense had a drop off since that game with lots of injuries; however, still some quality depth and enough talent to generate a pass rush. Bengals' offensive line has had trouble virtually all season opening holes and protecting their QB. We'll look for Watt, Tuitt, Heyward and OLB Highsmith to bring relentless heat on third string QB Ryan Finley - who has been shaky, at best, in limited action this season. On the other hand, look for Pittsburgh to establish their run game which has not been good lately. Tomlin wants to establish the run and the tired, broken down Bengals' defense is the perfect elixir. It should enable Ben to work play action to his talented, but lately underachieving, receiving corps. Steelers 7-1 ATS on MNF off double digit straight up loss. Bengals are just 1-4 ATS at home with revenge. Steelers should roll with the extra incentive of clinching division title tonight.  

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati 8:15: Bengals should continue to struggle offensively with third string Finley getting the nod. In limited action (4 appearances), Finley looked shaky at best going 10 of 19 for 75 yards with 2 INTs and 0 TDs. Bengals' offensive line not getting it done as Bengals' QBs getting beat up while run game is nearly non-existent. And as banged up as the Steelers' defense is, they still have playmakers and a respectable pass rush to do damage. On the flip end, Steelers run game struggling bad and receivers Diontae Johnson and TE Ebron have the drops while Roethlisberger looks immobile in pocket. This series is 0-4-1 O/U in its last 5 games. Steelers 1-11 O/U vs division opponent off back to back SU losses. They're also 0-4 O/U on MNF. "Under" the call. 

Browns/Giants 8:20: Giants have been quite a resilient team this year off losses; as a matter of fact, they have not failed to cover following an ATS loss this season. We'll grab the near TD here despite QB Daniel Jones most likely out. His backup - Colt McCoy has been around for awhile and has veteran poise. He did a nice job at Seattle. Giants should get back to their run game with Gallman, Lewis and Morris. Browns' defense gashed on Monday vs Baltimore and they're operating on a short week here. Need talented wide receivers Shepard, Slayton and Tate to step up their game; moreover, TE Engram needs to get involved. Browns operating with a banged up secondary with FS Sendejo out. Browns 1-9 ATS on the road in their last 10 vs the NFC East. Giants still in the hunt for a playoff spot should play hard. They're defense keeps them in the game. Tonight, Giants should elevate their 8-3 ATS mark as a dog this season.

Chiefs/Saints 4:25: If you're been a Chiefs' backer over the last five weeks, you've taken a beating. KC went 5-0 SU but 0-5 ATS. On the other hand, New Orleans went 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games as the party ended last week at Philadelphia. The balancing act should evolve further today; after all, New Orleans sports a money burning 26-39 ATS mark at home in December. KC controls a 15-3 ATS mark on the road off back-to-back SU wins vs. .500 or greater opposition. Sure, Brees is back but his best target Michael Thomas (IR) out. KC overdue for a statement game and should deliver. 

Patriots/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins a bit banged up but have the depth to deliver here. Miami in a revenge mode, like last year around this time, and should get it done; after all, they're at home this year in that revenge role. Dolphins have been a money ticket to the tune of 10-3 ATS this year and defense has been their ammo. They're the #2 scoring defense in the NFL and #1 in turnovers. They prepare well and have a ball hawking secondary led by CB Xavien Howard. Sure, Belichick is 9-0 SU vs rookie QBs but all good runs must come to an end. We'll grab the revenge minded Dolphins. 

49ers/Cowboys 1:00: 49ers, despite the injuries, overdue to get untracked and it should come here; after all, the 49ers have faced a murderer's row of heavyweight contenders: Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, Rams, Buffalo and upstart Washington. Dallas is a major fall off with a still questionable defense and reduced to a mediocre offense. Cowboys rank 32nd vs the run and points allowed. Sure, they beat a Cincinnati team that took a precipitous drop since QB Burrow went down. 49ers should unleash RB Jeff Wilson Jr. on them if Mostert is unable to go. Shanahan works well with QBs and should settle down turnover prone QB Mullens. The well managed SF defense should keep them in this and create turnover opportunities. SF the call. 

analysis to follow...

Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Both teams banged up and got to go on a short week. We'll give the edge to the revenge seeking Chargers who lost by a step, literally, in the final seconds of the November 8th meeting in Inglewood. TE Don Parham couldn't get his second foot down in the end zone in the Chargers' 31-26 loss. Tonight, like the Chargers' chances. QB Justin Herbert has done an outstanding job guiding a directionless offense. He has a good on field supporting cast to get by a Raiders' defense that is in a disarray. Guenther is finally out. Long overdue! However, Martinelli is not an upgrade. He'll be much more aggressive in his stunts and blitzes tonight but question his ability to handle the secondary. Remember, Martinelli got way too much credit in Dallas for a decent defense with Kris Richard as the Defensive Passing Game Coordinator. Martinelli won't have Richard on the sidelines with him tonight; in addition, he'll be missing some key starters including hard hitting S Abram. Anthony Lynn's staff is by far not coaching geniuses but have the talent to get by here. Lynn is 8-1 ATS vs an opponent off a double digit ATS loss. And the Chargers are 4-1 ATS on Thursday nights. Chargers the call. 

Ravens/Browns 8:15: Browns coming off an impressive performance against Tennessee and we'll roll with them here. Cleveland eager to prove that they belong as a top contender in the league and find the biggest stage - MNF - to do it on. They're seeking revenge from Week 1 38-6 demolition. Browns are much better than in Week 1. Mayfield now getting comfortable with targets Landry, Higgins and Peoples-Jones. And Cleveland has that two headed rushing attack with Chubb and Hunt cooking. Defensively, they're making plays and Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon remain a beasts off the edge with Sheldon Richardson clogging the middle. Baltimore battled back well last week but remain a question mark in areas on both sides of the ball. Pass game 32nd in the NFL and surely the weak Dallas defense, which they torched last Tuesday, is no indication of an upgrade to the pass game at this stage of the season. And defensively, thinning along the defensive front as Calais Campbell (calf) struggles to stay in. Browns a sweet 5-0 ATS with division revenge off a SU win. Browns the call. 

Steelers/Bills 8:20: Steelers coming off first loss of season while Buffalo closed out its 5th win over 6 games. Both played last Monday. Steelers chose to stay in Pittsburgh up until Sunday to prepare. They're dealing with injuries defensively, especially thin at linebacker; nevertheless, Allen and Gilbert III are well coached and should fit into the Steelers' defensive system well like Spillane (now on IR) did for Bush (ACL). And hard to find a better safety to play the backend of the secondary than Minkah Fitzpatrick. Josh Allen overdue to have a rough outing as he faces one of the top defenses in the NFL. He'll feel the heat from Watt, Tuitt, Heyward and Highsmith. On the other hand, we'll look for Roethlisberger to do his thing in hopes that his receivers are able to hold on to balls today, especially Diontae Johnson. Steelers play the road dog role well. Tomlin 12-1 ATS as a road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins and 19-5 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. Pittsburgh the call. 

Cardinals/Giants 1:00: Giants proving to be no joke. They've won 4 straight and sport an impressive 8-4 ATS season mark. Giants have been winning with old school great defense and heavy run packages (12 and 13 personnel). Defensively their line play has been outstanding, LB Blake Martinez has played sensational. and the Peppers and the defensive secondary are getting it done. Offensively, OC Garrett has used one back with 2 or sometimes 3 TEs which have helped them run for over 100+ yards in 7 straight games. Gallman and cast offs Dion Lewis and Alfred Morris and delivering behind a resurgent offensive line. And veteran journeyman Colt McCoy was efficient enough to carry them at the controls last week. This week, Daniel Jones should be good to go. On the flip side, Kingsbury continues to underachieve as a coach with a loaded talent pool. Giants looking to avenge last year's loss and this year will be getting points. We'll grab them. 

Vikings/Bucs 1:00: Vikings' defense not the usual Mike Zimmer aggressive, run stopping, sack swarming unit this year; as a matter of fact, bottom tier in a few key categories, including points allowed: 27.4. Not a good sign going against a well rested TB talented offense coming off two straight losses to top tier teams - Rams and Chiefs. Brady should be laser focused to pick apart the Vikings. TB looking to get their run game going to help Brady out and underutilized Ronald Jones III should be up for the task against the mediocre run stop unit of Minnesota. On the other hand, Minnesota has the #3 offense in the NFL. QB Cousins has a great RB Cook and super receivers in Thielen and Justin Jefferson. TB's DC Bowles gets overly aggressive in his coverages and it backfires with explosive plays. Minnesota is surely capable of that. Heavy TB "under" trends including 4-1 O/U off bye and 9-2 O/U off SU loss. Minnesota on a 5-2 O/U run. "Over" it is. 

Patriots/Rams 8:20: Heavy "under" trends in this matchup and we'll go with the flow. Patriots on a 2-7 O/U run coming off a shut out of an offensively prolific Chargers' team. Belichick has had a tendency to slow down explosive offenses over his illustrious coaching career including holding these very same LA Rams to just 3 points a few Super Bowls back. On the other hand, Rams sport the #1 defense in the NFL in terms of total yards allowed and take on a now conservative run oriented New England offense with Cam Newton at the controls. Rams are 0-5 O/U last 5 home games and 0-5 O/U as home chalk. A few points of value with this total and we're going "under".

Patriots/Rams 8:20: Rams ramping up production and I was all over them on Sunday but will fade them here in this spot. McVay and company eager to avenge 13-3 Super Bowl loss a few seasons back; however, Rams 1-10 ATS at home w/ revenge off a division road game doesn't translate into a convincing win. As for Belichick, he's doing what he does best: making the best of out of non-marquee players; for example, Div II undrafted Olszewski latest player to make an impact for New England. And another former Alabama RB Damien Harris chewing up yards (5.1 YPC). The running game should be the choice strategy for Josh McDaniels to go; after all, the Rams' ball hawking secondary and fierce pass rush equate to the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Keep in mind that Belichick is now an amazing 51-24 ATS as a dog including 4-1 ATS this year in that role. Him and his Patriots will do what they do best: find a way to win. 

Cowboys/Ravens 8:05: Ravens most likely will have their starting backfield back to add life back to the #2 rush offense in the NFL. QB Jackson, RB Dobbins, RB Ingram now off the Covid 19 restricted list. That spells trouble against a Dallas defense ranked dead last in the NFL stopping the run. Cowboys' offense hasn't been the same since QB Prescott went down vs NY October 11th. Dallas has scored only above 20 points once since. We'll look for the Baltimore defense, solid keeping opponents out of the end zone, to limit Dallas offensive production. Harbaugh not used to losing multiple games and very good in this spot. Baltimore is 11-1 ATS at home off a division game vs .300 or greater opponent. 

Bills/49ers 8:15: Bills have done well this year and rolling on a 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS run; however, defensively they're 25th in the league defending the run and that could hurt them here now that the 49ers are getting healthy with the return of some key skill players. RB Mostert, WR Samuel and this week Aiyuk (probable) give Shanahan more weapons to operate with while alleviating pressure on QB Mullens. And remember, Mullens is ready for prime time; after all, in 2018 he stepped in as a backup starter on Thursday night at Oakland and sported a superb 159 passer rating in a 34-3 win. Defensively, 49ers starting to gel. The 5th ranked stop unit is well guided under DC Saleh. This game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Arizona and the 49ers should come away victorious. 

Washington/Pittsburgh 5:00: Washington is well rested, coming off 2 straight wins (SU/ATS) and relatively healthy. Undefeated Pittsburgh struggled with sloppy play to eke out a win Wednesday against their depleted division rival - Baltimore; moreover, they lost a really good edge rusher in Bud Dupree (ACL). As a result, early action went on Washington as a double digit dog. Now it's bid down to under a touchdown and we'll back the Steelers. Steelers' HC Tomlin chewed into his crew and I believe they got their wakeup call. Despite the short week, Pittsburgh should show respond well here. They've responded well all season off sluggish performances with solid ATS wins. Steelers are deep in talent. Even without starting C Pouncey (Covid), Hassenauer stepped in and did a nice job vs an aggressive and active Baltimore front line. Moreover, without RB Conner (Covid), Benny Snell and McFarland are carrying the load well. Furthermore, Dupree's backup - Highsmith can get it done. Washington is not a vertical passing team and have trouble stretching the field and moving the ball vs stout defenses; as a matter of fact, QB Alex Smith is averaging just under 5 yards per throw! He does have a great young receiver in McLaurin; however, he's nursing an ankle injury that's limiting his big play ability. Technically, Pittsburgh is 10-0 ATS vs non-division opponents off back-to-back wins. They're also 6-0 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins and coming off a bye week. Washington not ready for prime time at 7-21 ATS on MNF; on the other hand, Pitt 4-1 ATS on MNF and should deliver.

Eagles/Packers 4:25: Eagles stick around long enough to annoy chalk lovers as evidenced in backdoor covers at Baltimore (Oct 18th) and last week in the last seconds vs Seattle. Philadelphia has also been a thorn in the side of Green Bay. Last year, Jordan Howard was a nightmare to the Green Bay defense in the Eagles 34-27 outright at Lambeau Field. Well guess who's been activated off the practice squad this week? Yes, Jordan Howard is back to join a loaded backfield with Boston Scott and Miles Sanders. Moreover, Wentz favorite target - TE Zach Ertz is back as the Eagles' skill personnel and battered offensive line get a bit more healthy. Furthermore, defensively, Fletcher Cox (neck) and CB Slay good to go. Philadelphia has demonstrated they're a good December team (76-49 SU) and covered both games when given 8+ this season. Packers, however, coming off a blowout of Chicago, are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. And the Green Bay defense has its share of flaws. We'll grab the generous amount of points with an Eagles team still in the hunt to win the NFC East. 

Rams/Cardinals 4:05: Rams are usually dangerous coming off a SU loss going on the road (7-0 ATS) and we'll roll with them; after all, they've owned this series to the tune of 6-0 SU/5-0-1 ATS. Cardinals' defense, middle of the pack this season in the NFL, has been brutal vs Sean McVay's offense. Arizona has surrendered 30+ points in each game since McVay took over the controls of Los Angeles. And the Rams sport one of the top defenses in the NFL this year with a lockdown corner - Ramsey to take limit QB Murray's top target Hopkins. Arizona is a dangerous dog but Los Angeles has their number and we'll roll with them. 

Colts/Texans 1:00: The first meeting this season and will meet again Dec 20th. Colts have covered 4 straight in this series and should deliver here. They're coming off a blowout revenge loss as expected last week. Tennessee ran all over them; however, Colts get back one of their top DL Buckner (Off Covid list). Houston, which sports one of the worst running games in the NFL (31st) shouldn't gash them with David Johnson (probable) like King Henry did last week. Moreover, QB Watson won't have top receiver and vertical threat Will Fuller (suspension). Brandin Cooks now the #1 but not as effective in explosive plays. Colts' offense should have their C Kelly back which will help offensively. Houston's top secondary player C Roby is out which will surely help Rivers connect with his well stocked arsenal of weapons. Colts generally bounce back in these games; after all, they're 6-0-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home.  

Browns/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it looks as if the Browns at 8-3 SU are in the hunt to be a legitimate contender in the AFC; however, a closer look reveals they've beaten just 1 team with a winning record (Indianapolis on Oct 11th). They do have the #1 run game in the NFL with Chubb and Hunt but it's not translating into spread wins (1-5 ATS). Tennessee is heating up and sports the #2 run game behind Derrick Henry and that spells trouble for defenses in December. And Tannehill will have another weapon - Adam Humphries - to add to his wealth of weaponry. TE Jonnu Smith (knee) won't play which is a loss. Good thing Browns a bit thin in secondary with LCB Denzel Ward out. Vrabel is 6-1 ATS off a division win and the Titans should deliver. 

Pittsburgh/Baltimore 3:40: Could have definitely been a trouble spot for Pittsburgh; after all, they're coming off a comfortable win against lightweight Jacksonville back home into a revenge game vs a division rival that's 4-0-2 ATS at Heinz Field. However, the dynamic has changed now that the linchpin of their offensive machine - Lamar Jackson (Covid 19) is out. RG III a step slow in comparison and not enough field time to get in rhythm with receiving corps, especially against a legitimate top tier defense in the NFL with few if any weaknesses. Moreover, take RBs Ingram and J.K. Dobbins (out) away and that spells limited yardage. Consequently, I see too many three and outs that will ultimately put too much stress on a good defense but not able to sustain Pittsburgh's multiple weapons for 4 quarters. Baltimore 1-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a SU loss vs a .500 or greater division foe. Steelers not good double digit favorite at 1-7 ATS but under the circumstances, Steelers have no mercy for their division rival and we'll roll with them but lightly tread.  

Seahawks/Eagles 8:15: Seahawks got a few extra days rest; consequently, some bodies are getting healthier including C Pocic and RB Carson. Carson and Hyde should see lots of carries against the porous run stop unit of the Eagles ranked 28th in the NFL allowing 133.4 YPG. On the other hand, Seahawks' defense getting a bit healthier too with CB Griffin good to go and S Adams (shoulder) will play through the pain. And DE acquisition from Cincinnati - Dunlap -already paid dividends (winning sack vs Arizona). Eagles' offense remains inept with Wentz (14 INT/10 fumbles) at controls and could use Hurts. Seattle will be prepared for both. Pete Carroll always dangerous on prime time and won't fade him here despite the Eagles looking for double revenge from last year including playoff loss. Seattle a sweet 14-2 ATS vs .400 or less foe with revenge off back to back SU losses. Seattle the call. 

Seahawks/Eagles 8:15: Both games last season ended in 17-9 wins by Seattle. Seattle does own the worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed but have shown improvement in areas including pass rush with the signing of Dunlap. Philadelphia is one of the poorer offenses they've faced this season and do play to their strength; after all, Seattle is #3 defending the run and should take away the Eagles' run game with Sanders and Scott. Eagles 0-4 O/U in last 4 games and 2-11 O/U at home vs non division conference opponent over the last 5 seasons. "Under" the call. 

49ers/Rams 4:05: October 18th, the 49ers outdueled the Rams 24-16 in San Francisco. Garoppolo was sharp in that game but he won't play today. Nick Mullins will get the nod and surely won't instill fear in the #1 defense (in terms of yards allowed) in the NFL. Rams ball hawking secondary should keep SF offense quiet. On the other hand, SF's DC Saleh has done a great job vs McVay over the last 3 games. And having CB Richard Sherman back in action will surely help the SF secondary containing Woods and Kupp. Heavy "under" trends on SF including 2-5 O/U as a road dog. Rams are on a 1-6 O/U run and 7-19 O/U as a home favorite. Rams look to work methodically down the field with run game, boot and play action off it. SF has the defense to counter effectively. SF offense not explosive enough to gash this year's Rams' defense. "Under" the call. 

Cardinals/Patriots 1:00: Trouble spot for Arizona traveling cross country to a Foxborough where the Patriots sport a solid 27-17 ATS mark as a November dog. Moreover, Patriots an electric 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home dog roles. Sure, Arizona has the #1 offense with dangerous skill weaponry; however, don't underestimate Belichick's scheming on how to slow down a high powered offense on his home turf this time of year - as exhibited against Baltimore November 15th. Both teams a bit banged up but give the edge to New England here. Patriots' offense not explosive but do sport the #4 run offense pounding out 154 YPG. Arizona run stop unit (allowing 125 YPG #23 in NFL) not equipped to handle the pounding on this field for 4 quarters. Technically, Arizona 2-17 ATS as a .500 team in November vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. NE, on the other hand, a cash grabbing 13-1 ATS off a non division game vs an opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Grab the dangerous home dog. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: I had the Colts in the first matchup and they delivered. Today, Tennessee should get revenge. Colts' #2 defense will be without 3 key starters including linemen Buckner, Autry and SLB Okereke. That amounts to 119 tackles, 8.5 sacks and 1 INT. Consequently, look for the Titans to ride their horse - Derrick Henry - which will certainly make life easier on QB Tannehill who has enough weaponry to go to on play action even without WR Humphries (out). And offensively, Colts will be without their starting C Kelly (neck). Sure, Titans not a good pass rush team but should find a way to exploit the A gaps. Titans will also have C Tye Smith back to bolster secondary. And I don't anticipate another blocked punt on account of the return of 3 time Pro Bowl punter - Brett Kern back in action. Tennessee a sweet 6-0 ATS vs an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins. Moreover, they're 11-2 ATS off a SU dog win vs a division opponent off a home game. And throw in the fact that teams meeting within two weeks of first meeting has historically gone to the revenge seeker to the tune of 18-7 ATS! Titans the call. 

Chargers/Bills 1:00: Sure, Chargers are traveling cross country in late November to face a pissed off a stewing Bills team that lost on a Hail Murray two weeks ago. But not so fast. Ironically, the warm weather Chargers are 34-20 ATS on the November road. Chargers manage to stay in games, that's what they do. They haven't lost any game this season by more than one score. Their #3 offense in the NFL led by QB Justin Herbert allows them hang around. And Buffalo's defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams roaming the secondary, Bills could be on their heels here. We'll look for Anthony Lynn to go 3-0 ATS in his tenure vs the Bills. 

Washington/Dallas 4:30: Washington with an underrated defense led by Jack Del Rio. They're #1 defending the pass and lately limiting explosive plays. Dallas offense surely not as dangerous with Dalton as they were with Prescott. Dallas 1-4 O/U since Prescott went down vs NYG. The Dallas defense, however, was horrific up until visiting Philadelphia. That was a game after Washington pounded the rock for 208 rush yards and 189 yards passing. Dallas has crept up the defensive standings since and should be much better today; after all, Washington does not have a vertical passing game and likes to control the clock with Alex Smith at the helm. Washington is on a 1-5 O/U run and 1-12 O/U vs division following a non-division game. Dallas is 0-6 O/U after allowing 350+ yards. We'll stay "under" here. 

Rams/Bucs 8:15: Tampa Bay has been disappointing in their prime time games this season. They barely squeaked by at Chicago and New York, and got blasted by New Orleans at home. TB hasn't been great in this spot. Just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite on Monday Night's and 0-5 ATS off a win as a MNF favorite. Rams have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series yet got beaten 55-40 last year at home. We'll look for a prepared Rams team to deliver here. Rams sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, the #2 pass defense and #2 in points allowed. TB has had protection issues for Brady and it won't get easier vs Aaron Donald and company. On the other hand, TB has a dominant defense itself, including very good linebackers but young and inexperienced in secondary. Goff has talented skill players in Kupp, Woods, Reynolds and TE Higbee. And throw in a deep backfield with Malcolm Brown, Henderson Jr. and Cam Akers, TB's aggressive blitz packages by DC Boles could backfire. Arians just 1-9 ATS as an above .500 team off a division games vs a .500 or greater opponent. Rams the call.  

Dallas/Vikings 4:25: Dallas may be a trendy pick coming off a bye after giving the Steelers a rough time. Won't buy into it. Dallas' HC McCarthy most likely going with Andy Dalton who threw 1TD/3 INTs in his 0-2 starting experience with Dallas. Minnesota defense starting to play with confidence and the offense is gelling in their 6-1 ATS tear. Cowboys' porous run stop unit won't have an answer for RB Delvin Cook. Vikings a sweet 20-5 ATS as home chalk vs non-division opponent. Minnesota 7-0 ATS last 7 at home vs Dallas. 

Titans/Ravens 1:00: Both of these teams not playing their best football. Both teams on a 1-3 slide. Titans do have a bit more recovery time to stew over latest loss. Titans, as I expected, fell to Indy last Thursday but should bounce back in this spot. Titans ran all over a healthy Baltimore defense January 11th. Derrick Henry should be able to gallop for a good amount of yards against a short handed run stop unit without NT Williams and Calais Campbell. Tannehill may not have Humphries (out) available but A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith is enough weaponry to work Baltimore's secondary. Ravens' offense not nearly as explosive as last years and HC Vrabel should once again come up with good game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Ravens a money burning 1-8 ATS off non-division SU favorite loss. Tennessee the call. 

Patriots/Texans 1:00: Patriots doing what they do when adversity strikes: making the right adjustments. Patriots devoted to the ground game in their 2-1 SU/ATS run; over that span, they've averaged 173.3 YPG rushing. We'll look for them to pound the rock against the NFL's worst run stop unit that allows a generous 167.4 YPG. On the flip side, Houston has been unable to generate a ground game with a pedestrian 87.9 YPG (31st in NFL). Belichick should develop a good scheme to contain Houston's main weapons - QB Watson and WR Fuller. Patriots 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in this series and should deliver. 

Lions/Panthers 1:00:  Both teams battling injuries and illnesses; however, Carolina poised to deliver here on their home field. Detroit hasn't beaten Carolina since the 90s on this field and with some key offensive personnel out, I don't see it happening here. WR Golladay (hip) is a big-time playmaker for QB Stafford and he'll be out today. Detroit just 1-3 ATS without Golladay. Moreover, rookie RB Swift (concussion) has been a playmaker out of the backfield and on the ground and will be missed. Furthermore, Stafford is battling a throwing hand thumb injury to further hamper offensive production. Panthers have a better defense than Detroit and should play well here. Offensively, sure QB Bridgewater (MCL) should be out but Carolina's HC Rhule will have P.J. Walker prepared. Walker has some very good playmakers surrounding him despite McCaffrey out. D.J. Moore, Samuel, Robbie Anderson and Mike Davis should scorch a poorly coached defensive secondary of Detroit. Panthers overdue for a win and it should come here. They're 9-1-1 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs non-division opponent. 

Arizona/Seattle 8:20: Hard to put a big play on the Seahawks laying points with their atrocious defense (32nd in NFL); however, Pete Carroll finds a way to bring the best out of his players in this situation. Remember, October 25th, Arizona edged Seattle in Arizona 37-34 in OT. Seattle is 1-2 since that game including 2 straight losses. Carroll is a sweet 12-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses and has not lost 3 straight games since 2011 when his Seahawks lost but actually covered at Dallas. Moreover, he's one of the great prime-time TV coaches including 7-1-2 ATS on Thursday nights. Sure, Seattle has its injury problems but should have Carlos Hyde back to pick up a run game that went south (just 4.04 YPC) with Deejay Dallas, Travis Homer and Alex Collins running the rock. The first 7 weeks they were averaging 5.25 YPG with Hyde and Carson in the backfield. With Cardinals NT Corey Peters out with a season ending injury, Seattle should get the run game cooking to open up the pass game for Russell Wilson. Lockett is good to go. He lit up Arizona in Game 1 with 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 TDs. Metcalf got stalled out by CB Patterson in that game but always dangerous. Edge to Seattle here. 

Vikings/Bears 8:15: Hard to back a Vikings team that's had trouble winning prime time games; more specifically, MNF. Vikings have lost 10 straight MNF tilts. Cousins is 0-9 on MNF. Vikings are on a nice run as Zimmer has them playing better (5-1 ATS); however, Vikings going on the road with some players out due to injury and illness. OL Samia (Covid 19 positive), DE Brailford (personal) and CB Dantzler (concussion) won't help matters; moreover, some others on Covid 19 protocol. Vikings have had their share of of trouble traveling to Chicago going a money burning 3-14 ATS. The dog in this series is 5-1 ATS. Bears' offense in a funk as Nagy is surrendering play calling duties to Bill Lazor. Foles should turn up his game a notch against a Minnesota defense that has had pressuring the QB and ranked 30th in total yards allowed. Bears should break 0-3 SU slide and deliver here. Take the points. 

Seahawks/Rams 4:25: Recent history suggests a tight game; however, Seahawks off a bruising affair in Buffalo have rough sledding ahead now that they back to the coast to play well rested rival Los Angeles. Seahawks have injuries across the board including starting C Pocic who will be replaced by Kyle Fuller in his first NFL start. Fuller is an athletic guy but going up against the front runner for Defensive Player of the Year - Aaron Donald - is a monumental task. Moreover, Seattle getting thin at RB as Carson (foot) and Hyde (hamstring) are struggling to recover. Meanwhile, Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer not able to carry the run game putting more pressure on QB Russell Wilson to deliver. Rams have the #2 defense in the NFL and a ball hawking secondary; meanwhile, Pete Carroll is doing everything possible to pencil in players on a defense that is dead last in yards allowed and pass yardage allowed. Rams' offense should have a solid game. Seattle 1-5 ATS off a double-digit loss vs an opponent off a bye week. Rams are 4-1 SU the last 4 in this matchup and should deliver. 

Buffalo/Arizona 4:05: Arizona in a good position here. Coming off a loss and should outscore a Bills team traveling cross country. Bills, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road tilts, have defensive breakdowns that are uncharacteristic of the Bills' defense over the last few years; moreover, they will have to do without CB Josh Norman (Covid 19) and fellow corner Wallace (Covid protocol). Arizona, which has the #1 offense in the NFL, is loaded with weaponry (Hopkins, Kirk, Fitzgerald, Murray, Drake) should outscore the Bills here; after all, Arizona is a sweet 14-2 ATS when the O/U line is above 50 points. They're also a strong 13-1 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent off a SU/ATS win. Arizona defense not great but respectable in the red zone where they make plays. We'll lay a few points with the Cardinals here. 

Texans/Browns 1:00: Texans not to be trusted off a win, especially a division win. They're 1-9 ATS on the road off a SU division win vs an opponent over .500. So far, Houston has only demonstrated they can beat lightweight division rival Jacksonville (2-0 SU /1-1 ATS). Today, they face a well rested Browns team that's responded well off losses. Browns are 4-0 ATS at home vs teams below .500. With Chubb now probable, the Browns can amp up a potent run game with Hunt vs the worst run stop unit in the NFL. Texans allow nearly 160 YPG on the ground. Mayfield at his best when that ground game is cooking. Even without Beckham Jr. (IR), Higgins, Landry and Peoples-Jones, TE Hooper more than enough weaponry to work play action on a suspect secondary. As for Houston, lack of run game has been their problem for most of the year and even though former Browns' RB Duke Johnson is a respectable fill in for David Johnson (out), Texans' O Line still not getting it done. Browns deliver. 

Eagles/Giants 1:00: Giants on a 5-1 ATS tear and should avenge October 22nd one point loss - a game in which they were up 21-10 in the fourth quarter. Both teams are turnover laden but Giants cleaned up their turnover problem last week in win over Washington. We'll look for a carry over effect here in this heated divisional rivalry. Eagles just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite; moreover, the Eagles days of dominating off a bye - when Andy Reid was patrolling the sidelines - (13-1) are over. Under Pederson they're just 1-3. Giants' OC Garrett should know this Eagles' defense well; after all, he's faced it for over a decade. We'll look for the Giants to hang tough here.

Colts/Titans 8:20: Colts coming off a disappointing loss in which QB Rivers threw a questionable interception to allow Ravens to put away the game; however, prior to that, Colts held the explosive Baltimore offense in check. Indy defense solid and deserved of their #3 scoring defense and #3 vs the run. Titans' offense may be even more versatile than Baltimore's as Tannehill is having a career year and bruising RB Henry is on track for 1700 rushing yards. Nevertheless, we'll jump back on Indy in this spot. Rivers will have T.Y. Hilton (groin) back to team with Pascal. Would like to see more RB Hines. Jonathan Taylor has to hold on to the rock because Titans, although a yielding defense, are opportunistic with 13 takeaways. But they're having trouble rushing the passer as big acquisition Clowney not getting it done and, ultimately, should give Indy the edge.  Reich 7-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater opponent. Colts 3-1 ATS at Tennessee. And they're 5-0-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Edge to Indianapolis. 

Patriots/Jets 8:15: Hard to see lots of points tonight; after all, both offenses are struggling badly. Patriots' QB Newton has just 2 TDs with 7 INTs and 1 lost fumble. He has limited weaponry with Edelman on IR and N'Keal Harry out. Jet's defense struggling on account of an offense that can't get the ball in the end zone. They average a league low 11.8 PPG and are at the bottom of virtually every offensive category. QB Darnold is listed as doubtful so Flacco, who has actually been decent, will most likely take over the controls. Problem is that he's got limited weaponry and a patchwork offensive line. Defensively, Patriots won't have C Gilmore (knee) and scattered injuries across the board; nevertheless, enough talent and coaching to ward off the pedestrian offense of the Jets. Technically, Patriots 1-10 O/U on the road vs team with losing home record. This series is 1-7 O/U. "Under" the call. 

Patriots/Jets 8:15: Patriots injuries and defections have limited success this year; however, still enough talent and coaching to get past the fizzling Jets. Patriots should pound the run game with top run stopper Quinnen Williams (hamstring) out. Jets last in passing and in 3rd down conversions. Despite CB Gilmore out, Belichick has enough defensive talent to stymie the Jets bungling offense. Need Cam Newton to step up his game and take care of the football. He surely has the coaching (OC Josh McDaniel) to help his game. Patriots have that tendency to deliver vs losing teams as their 22-7 ATS mark vs teams under .500 indicates. They're also 4-0 ATS after allowing 150+ rush yards. Jets 5-11-1 ATS at home and should succumb here. 

Saints/Bucs 8:20: Thought this total would be set higher considering the trends and personnel. New Orleans has gone 7-0 O/U this season. Bucs are 6-0 O/U as a home favorite. This series has gone 5-1 O/U. The first game was a disappointment for Brady and TB; however, they've found their offensive rhythm since. Brady now connecting with his wealth of riches including Evans, Miller, Jones II, Gronk and Godwin could be available. Moreover, if that's not enough, all time vertical threat Antonio Brown is ready and that's not good news for a New Orleans' secondary that's given up an abundance of explosive plays (7 plays of 48+ yards). And the #1 TB defense looked ordinary Monday night vs the pedestrian Giants' offense, Brees will have his favorite target back - Michael Thomas to add to a solid stable of skill personnel. Both Brees (558) and Brady (559) will be competing for the all time TD mark on prime time TV. Bombs away. Over the call. 

Broncos/Falcons 1:00: Falcons not deserved of laying points. They're 0-4 ATS as a home favorite, 1-8 ATS as a favorite off a SU division win, and a money burning 0-12 ATS as a favorite vs non-division opponent off a division game. Sure, the Broncos have stumbled a few times but against elite opposition - KC and TB. The Broncos are a strong 6-1 ATS vs losing teams, and 6-0 ATS off division games. Denver did have some issues with Covid 19 as practice was called Wednesday to address that; nevertheless, Fangio is doing a great job holding the team together amid the injuries. We'll look for them to be competitive here. 

Seahawks/Bills 1:00: Decent day in Buffalo considering we're approaching the second week of November. An unseasonable 63 degrees with winds at 4 MPH; consequently, offensive football should be prevalent. Seahawks come to Buffalo with the worst defense (32nd); as a matter of fact their pass defense is the worst ever for this time of year - allowing an astounding 359 YPG! Buffalo's Josh Allen has some good skill personnel and they'll be sure to frequent the end zone. They also have a turnover problem (11) which could translate to quick Seattle points; after all, Seattle defense gives up yards and points but is opportunistic (forced 14 turnovers). On the flip side, Russell Wilson presides an offense that produces 414 YPG, completing 71% of his passes and has thrived on the long ball with Metcalf and Lockett. Buffalo defense not what it was the last few years. They're 23rd in the league in completion % allowed. Buffalo is 5-0 O/U off a SU win. Seattle 36-14 O/U vs non division in November. "Over" the call. 

Ravens/Colts 1:00: Analysts saying Colts have built their record on weak foes and they have a point; however, the same can be said of Baltimore. With the exception of Cleveland, which they ambushed in Game 1, Ravens have feasted on lightweights Houston, Washington, Cincinnati and Philadelphia while losing to contenders KC and Pittsburgh. Baltimore, however, had 7 key defensive personnel at high risk (Covid 19 exposure) and did not practice. And they'll sorely miss LT Staley (season ending ankle injury). Lamar Jackson is still on his game running football but pass game off (31st in NFL). Indy defense no joke and ranked #2 vs the run (allow 79.9 YPG). QB Rivers probably won't have T.Y. Hilton but Pascal is picking up the slack and acrobatic RB Hines has emerged as another go-to option. Colts 8-1 ATS in this series and 3-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Baltimore 1-4 ATS slide and 0-7 ATS off a SU loss. We'll grab the home dog. 

Green Bay/San Francisco 8:20: 49ers hampered by injuries and illness across the board. With stars Garoppolo, TE Kittle, RB Mostert and RB Coleman out, limited weaponry for backup QB Mullens to operate with. Moreover, Covid 19 has benched WRs Bourne, Samuel and Aiyuk and starting LT Trent Williams; consequently, that leaves Mullens with WRs Trent Taylor and Richie James along with practice squad call ups. That's not going to strike fear in a decent Packers' secondary. Packers have their share of injuries too but not to SF's extent. RBs AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams most likely out. And Aaron Jones is questionable. Not to panic as RB Tyler Ervin has done a bang up job when called upon. Aaron Rodgers does have almost full capacity of playmakers to work with including Davonte Adams and a healthy list of TEs. Packers underachieved Sunday vs Minnesota but should bounce back strong here; after all, they're still bitter about being bounced last year out of the playoffs by SF 37-20. Packers 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and that trend should continue here. 

Tampa Bay/New York 8:15: TB getting into a nice groove last few weeks. Buc's offensive line doing a pretty good job allowing Brady to get into rhythm; after all, he's thrown 15 TD passes to only 1 INT over the last 5 games. Sure, Godwin (finger) probably out but he's got Evans, Gronk, Miller and Jones II doing a bang up job. Giants' defensive front respectable but holes in secondary. And it's hard to see NY trading points. QB Jones has a shaky offensive line with limited skill weaponry as more injuries pile up (RB Freeman out). NY offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in virtually every category. That doesn't bode well vs the TB defense - ranked #1 in terms of allowing yards; moreover, #1 in stopping the run; consequently, more pressure on QB Jones to deliver. Technically, Giants a money burning 1-5 ATS as a home dog on MNF. TB HC Arians 9-2 ATS as a road favorite vs less than .500 opposition. Buccaneers the call. 

Saints/Bears 4:25: On the surface, the prospects of the Bears delivering here looks bleak after their pedestrian offensive performance on Monday; however, Rams' defense is pretty good. Bears face a New Orleans' defense that has allowed 17 TD passes and 6 passes of 48+ over the last 4 games. Foles, who can throw the deep ball, will have WR Robinson (concussion) for this one. On the other hand, Bears' defense can clamp down and make plays. They've forced nine turnovers and tighten in the red zone. Keep in mind that Brees will still be without his top receiver - Michael Thomas (hamstring) and emerging go-to-guy - Emmanuel Sanders (illness). And the Bears can rush the QB with Mack (ankle) cleared and Hicks at his best. Technically, Bears 8-4 ATS off a Su loss; moreover, 5-0 SU on a short week. I'm going to look for a different outcome from last year's 36-25 embarrassing loss. 

Raiders/Browns 1:00: Browns feeling really good off another win to sit at 5-2 SU in standings; however, I'm not that excited knowing they've accumulated 4 of those 5 wins vs losing teams. And the winning team that they beat - Indy - has only one win over a winning team - Chicago. Raiders have a couple quality wins - KC and New Orleans. Sure, TB was my Top Play last week against them but on account of not having their entire offensive line to practice for a week; despite that, the Raiders hung with TB up until the Bucs blew it open midway through 4th quarter. Today, Raiders looking in pretty good shape. Carr has plenty of weapons - TE Waller, WR Ruggs, WR Agholor, WR Renfrow, RB Jacobs - to work a yielding Browns' defense. And sure, Mayfield is coming off a huge game, but won't have OBJ or TE Hooper (77 targets) to go to today. Need the Raiders' defenseless defense to step it up today and we'll bet on it. Take the points. 

Colts/Lions 1:00: Colts should be healthy and well rested; after all, they're coming off a bye and will have their All Pro LB Darius Leonard back to solidify their #2 ranked defense. Colts are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite off a bye week. Detroit is feeling good off a last minute win against Atlanta to go on a 2-0 run. We'll look for that run to end here. HC Patricia has yet to win 3 straight games as the head man at Detroit. Sure, Stafford is connecting well with Golladay and TE Hockenson but Indianapolis has a ball hawking secondary and a pretty effective pass rush with Justin Houston leading the way. Not crazy about the Detroit defense which is banged up in the secondary (CB Trufant - hamstring) and allows 132 YPG on the ground. Indy is overdue to get RB Jonathon Taylor rolling. Indy the call. 

Steelers/Ravens 1:00: Not sold on the Ravens this year. Their run game remains strong but pass game stagnant at 178 YPG (31st in NFL). And when they needed to step up against the NFL elite, they laid a big egg. Their defense was horrendous vs KC with many fundamental flaws while offensively Lamar Jackson was way out of rhythm; moreover, they allowed Philadelphia to come back and test them down the stretch a few weeks back. Today, they face the #1 defense in the NFL with few flaws. Steelers allowing just 68.8 YPG on the ground and have a ball hawking secondary. Moreover, they've got a defensive line that is athletic and deep. Ravens are well rested but have a disturbing trend. Baltimore is 3-17 ATS as a favorite off a non-division game vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Steelers got swept in this series without Big Ben last year. Now that Roethlisberger is healthy and establishing rhythm with his wealth of weaponry, Steelers should keep it rolling. 

Atlanta/Carolina 8:20: Atlanta has controlled this series to the tune of 8-2 ATS run; however, changing of the guard could ensue. Matt Rhule is doing a great job in turning around the Panthers franchise and without marquee players. They've covered 4 of the last 5 and that was without their best player - McCaffrey - who's been out since week 2. Tonight, good chance McCaffrey (ankle) will play. Bridgewater, not at elite status but doing a solid job in directing the offense. And Carolina needs more of a pass rush to help their secondary out. As for Atlanta, they're still finding ways to lose as exhibited last week vs Detroit. Falcons' defense ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of total yards. Can't depend on them to make critical stops. Inclement weather a possibility tonight and that favors the home team. Falcons 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on grass fields. Edge to Carolina as they sweep season series.  

Bears/Rams 8:15: Bears in good hands under Nagy. Foles has been a steady QB and he's gotten into rhythm with a good group of receivers. Allen Robinson is a top tier receiver. And Mooney, Miller and TE Graham are good supporting options. Even RB Montgomery is showing good versatility. Rams' defense appears good according to the stats; however, not what they were under former DC Wade Phillips. Rams have only beaten 3 lightweights - Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington - all from the lowly NFC East. Sure, Rams have the offense back up to speed this year but face a pretty good Chicago defense. Bears have an underrated secondary that limits explosive plays. And Rams' vertical threat - Woods is nursing a groin injury while TE Higbee has a banged up hand. Bears not quite ready for prime time but 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday tilts. Moreover, they're a sweet 6-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent off SU loss as a favorite. We'll look for Bears to go for sweet revenge from last year's 17-7 loss. 

Bucs/Raiders 4:05: Tough spot for the Raiders after huge win at KC back on the 11th. They're entire offensive line sent home last week but should be good to go Sunday pending negative tests. Nevertheless, no practice time for them as newly activated offensive line subbed for them the entire week after Trent Brown tested positive for Covid 19. TB defense, #1 in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed, was on the attack of Aaron Rodgers last week and should make life uncomfortable for Derek Carr on Sunday. Offensively, Bucs established a nice rhythm last week and good to see Gronkowski getting targets now. Bad news for a 27th ranked Raiders' scoring defense which won't have S Jonathon Abram (Covid 19 protocol). Raiders have not had success at home vs the NFC South at 1-7 ATS; moreover, Gruden a money burning 1-10 ATS vs greater than .500 opponent off double-digit ATS win & scored more than 35 points. TB the call. 

Panthers/Saints 1:00: We get great value with a Panthers' team that doesn't have big name players but playing solid football under first year HC Rhule. Rhule swept away Joe Brady from LSU and it's paying dividends. Former Saints' QB Teddy Bridgewater playing well and reserve RB Mike Davis doing well in place of dynamic McCaffrey. Saints' defense has a tendency to bring out the best in opposing QBs allowing an average of 108 QB rating. Offensively, Saints' Brees still won't have his top receiver - Michael Thomas (hamstring), but also emerging go-to receiver Sanders (illness) out! Panthers 3-0 ATS in last 3 trips to Superdome. Take Carolina and the TD. 

Packers/Texans 1:00: At first glance at this line, seems like the Packers would be a clear lock; however, they're dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Will have to shuffle their offensive line a bit, RB Aaron Jones (calf) iffy, and defensive secondary injuries. Sure, Texans' QB Watson will be a load to handle. Fortunately, Houston has the 31st rush offense in the NFL and that puts lots of pressure on Watson to make plays. And defensively, the Texans are not good. They're 32nd against the run allowing 175.5 YPG and that should allow solid reserve RB Jamaal Williams to get going; consequently, Aaron Rodgers should atone for last week's sluggish outing; after all, Packers are 5-0 ATS off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS after allowing 30+. As for Houston, 0-8 ATS as a dog of 3 points or more vs a .600 or greater team off a SU loss. Packers the call. 

Steelers/Titans 1:00: Two undefeated AFC powerhouses go head to head. We'll grab the points with Pittsburgh here. They boast the #2 defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. They also present the #2 run stop unit in the NFL. Of course, stopping Derrick Henry the entire game is a monumental task. Yet Pittsburgh is built for this. Yes, they will be without ILB Devin Bush (knee), who was having a solid year; however, reserve Spillane came in last week and the Steelers defense didn't miss a beat. Tennessee's offense is loaded with weaponry but LT Lewan is out and it will be tough for reserve LT Sambrailo to keep DE Bud Dupree from disruptive behavior on Tannehill. On the other hand, Tennessee's defense is yielding and face a healthy Roethlisberger with a wealth of weaponry including emerging superstar and matchup nightmare Claypool. Steelers 4-0 ATS after scoring 30+ and we'll grab them here. 

 Giants/Eagles 8:20: This line dropped to -4 after TE Ertz and RB Sanders ruled out. Eagles do, however, get WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and OT Lane Johnson (ankle) back.  And Sanders' replacement - RB Boston Scott - has had two huge games vs the Giants! Moreover, Eagles' HC Pederson 5-0 ATS on Thursday nights including 2-0 vs the Giants. Eagles have beaten NY 7 straight times SU and they're hungry to get back in the win column after a highly competitive loss vs Baltimore on Sunday; meanwhile, the Giants got their first win over struggling Washington. Look for Pederson to have his men charged up and prepared. Eagles 7-0 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. 

Cardinals/Cowboys 8:15: Can't take the Cowboys now with that dreadful defense that allows 32.6 PPG. Kyler Murray has the weaponry (Hopkins, Fitzgerald, Drake, Kirk) to light up the Cowboys secondary. On the other hand, Cardinals in a bit of a bind defensively too with their All Pro LB Chandler Jones (biceps) out. But they do get safeties Banjo and Thompson back. And Buddha Baker and Patrick Peterson still have big play ability. Dalton still a dangerous QB but a drop off from Prescott. We'll grab the Cardinals here. 

Chiefs/Bills 5:00: Chiefs had a few more days rest to stew over loss to Las Vegas. And they're a bit more healthy than Buffalo, which is coming off a demoralizing loss Tuesday to Tennessee. KC's defense has bookends Chris Jones and Frank Clark healthy and that spells a bit more trouble for Bills' QB Josh Allen whose working behind a beat up offensive line. And defensively, Bills not what they were the last few years under McDermott. Mahomes has a wealth of riches to go to in the skill department despite Sammy Watkins being out. And you can add Mecole Hardman to the list. RB Bell will factor in later in season too. Defensively, Chiefs are very yielding too but make big plays (Mathieu) in critical moments. KC 5-0 ATS following Raiders game. And they're 7-0 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points off a division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Moreover, they're 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points. We'll look for KC to clean it up in Buffalo. 

Falcons/Vikings 1:00: Vikings getting better each week as their 3-0 ATS mark indicates. They have some injuries, including Delvin Cook; however, Mattison looked solid in his relief last week with 112 yards on 20 carries. Falcons a sad sack and DC Raheem Morris not the answer. Minnesota 12-0 ATS at home off SU loss and a sizzling 10-4 ATS as a home favorite vs non division opponents under Zimmer. We'll lay the points. 

Broncos/Patriots 1:00: Broncos on the cusp of being a respectable team. If you look back, they were in control of two games late in 4th quarter (Tennessee and Pittsburgh) yet inexperience and poor decision making cost them in the final minute. More level headed down the stretch and they're 3-1 SU going in to this one. Last year, similar mistakes down the stretch cost Fangio. Nevertheless, he's been a solid cover coach and it holds up this year at 3-1 ATS. Broncos haven't played since October 1st. NE, due to Covid 19 cases, off since October 5th. Patriots will be without RB Michel, starting RG Mason and starting DT Cowart. Broncos should have QB Drew Lock ready to go and RB Lindsay will get the nod in place of Gordon (DUI). Broncos' Lock has some solid weapons in Jeudy and Patrick. Extended rest for Denver helped a banged up defense get healthy and Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in football. Broncos are 5-2 ATS as a road dog on extended rest while the Patriots are a money burning 1-8 ATS on extended rest as home chalk. Broncos the call. 

Broncos/Patriots 1:00: Two brilliant defensive minds - Fangio and Belichick battle it out. Extended rest should aid the defenses in this one. NE hasn't been an explosive stretch the field team this season as Cam Newton has more possession receivers than vertical threats. Well disciplined Broncos' defense limits explosive plays. On the other hand, Broncos do have Jerry Jeudy who can separate from the best defensive backs but NE secondary well disciplined as well. Broncos 0-12 O/U when O/U line 45 or greater. "Under" it is. 

Texans/Titans 1:00: Despite the limited time of prep for Tennessee (off Tuesday game) we'll roll with Tennessee. Prior to Tuesday, they had extended rest and able to come out firing on all cylinders. This week they get another weapon back for Tannehill. Adam Humphries will play. Texans, meanwhile, got a win over a poor Jacksonville team but lost leading tackler Mckinney (shoulder). That's bad news for a Texans' run stop unit that's 31st against the run allowing 160 YPG. And Derrick Henry won't be forgiving late in the game. Technically, Texans were horrible under O'Brien off wins and I'm confidant this will carry over with Crennel. We'll roll with the Titans. 

Ravens/Eagles 1:00: To quote Lou Holtz, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." Such the case with these two teams today. Ravens coming off a blowout win and feeling really good. Actually, Bengals played horribly and routinely shot themselves in the foot offensively but held their own defensively considering the poor field position left in. Lamar Jackson (knee) took some more practice time off this week and the Ravens, which had 3 of their last 4 wins against lightweights with a combined 3 wins among them, will be overconfident going into Philadelphia. Eagles' HC Pederson is a quality coach in his 5th year, including a Super Bowl ring. Wentz is starting to find some new targets - Fulgham, Ward, Hightower to compliment TE Ertz and RB Sanders. And the offensive line is getting healthier.  Defensively, Eagles need to clean up mistakes in the secondary and believe they will here. Technically, Pederson a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents off a home game. And 7-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points after allowing more than 35 points. Eagles the call. 

Bills/Titans 7:00: Under normal circumstances (without Covid 19), a case can surely be built for Tennessee to avenge their loss from a year ago on this field; however, Titans have been out of action since the 27th and have had very little on field practice time while missing lots of players. Some of Tannehill's key weapons ( Humphries) are out and he'll have to go with the next man up - Westbrook-Ikhine, Kalif Raymond- who rarely see the field; therefore, chemistry is a concern in the passing game. Sure, there is Derrick Henry; however, offensive line underachieving this year as Henry is being hit after 1.3 yards gained; moreover, Tannehill has taken way too many pressures and hits although he has been fortunate to avoid sacks. Bills' defense not what it was the last few years but must consider the offense is now explosive (#3 in NFL). Bills are relatively healthy and rolling. Devin Singletary is a highly underrated back that allows Josh Allen to do his thing. Diggs, Beasley, Brown (questionable) are in great rhythm with Allen. Titans' underachieving defense allowing 30 points in back to back weeks not a good sign considering limited practice time to make adjustments. We'll look for Buffalo to keep it rolling.

Chargers/Saints 8:15: Chargers do their best work on the road under Anthony Lynn where they're now 17-8 ATS. Chargers need to cut down on mistakes such as fumbles and interceptions at inopportune times. RB Joshua Kelley and QB Herbert need to polish their game and I believe they'll do well here. New Orleans defense giving up about 31 points per game. Saints' secondary still not fully healthy and Herbert has the arm and the weaponry (WR Allen) to work it. Saints have the worst Red Zone defense in the NFL at 82.4% conversion. On the other hand, Drew Brees' favorite target Michael Thomas still out. Chargers have a solid secondary and a great pass rush when Bosa (questionable) is healthy. Saints 4-10 ATS as home chalk and 2-6 ATS on MNF. Chargers keep it tight. 

Vikings/Seattle 8:20: I realize Carroll is a big Prime Time TV winner and the Seahawks are 4-0 SU/ATS; however, overdue for a loss here. Carroll's uncharacteristic poor defensive numbers (last in the NFL in total yards) is a backdoor cover dream here. Vikings' QB Cousins has a plethora of weaponry to go to, including versatile RB Cook, to thrash the thin secondary of Seattle. Seattle won't have S Adams nor C Quinton Dunbar to help stave off yardage. Carroll is relying on guys like S Damarious Randall who was just called up from the practice squad. Seattle is also having a hard time generating sacks. Minnesota overdue to get revenge on a Seattle team that's whipped them repeatedly. Zimmer a dangerous 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog. Minnesota the call. 

Colts/Browns 4:25: Both teams have injury concerns but believe the Colts' systems in a better state to manage them. Colts won't have All-Pro LB Leonard but do have pretty good depth at that position. Colts' DC Eberflus has the #1 defense in the NFL and subs are well managed to take over. I like they lead the NFL in interceptions and the ball hawking secondary will be challenged with the Browns' wealth of skill talent. Colts play the run well and will have to be on their game vs the #1 run attack in the NFL; however, Chubb's (out) absence will hurt a bit leaving Hunt as the go-to-guy with untested rookie D'Ernest Johnson as his backup. On the defensive side of the ball is a shaky part for Cleveland. They do have All-Pro caliber DE Myles Garrett to wreak havoc especially since LT Castonzo is out. But Indy HC Reich will work it out for veteran signal caller Phillip Rivers. He's got some surrounding talent and should be able to torch a weak Cleveland secondary under DC Joe Woods. Reich is 6-1 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater team. And he's 10-2 ATGS vs .500 or greater team off a non-division opponent. Colts the call.